NC State 10 @ Mississippi St 24

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 3.05 | Odds: NCST -1.5, O/U 55.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 152 ESPN team id 344
Total Plays 8976
Total EPA -17.77-1.05
  Offensive EPA -12.89-4.87
  Special Teams EPA -3.938.03
  Penalty EPA -0.95-4.2
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 0.00-0.01
Production ESPN team id 152 ESPN team id 344
Scrimmage Plays 7564
  Yards 354326
  Yards/Play 4.725.09
  EPA -12.89-4.87
  EPA/Play -0.17-0.08
Passes 55 (73%)50 (78%)
  Yards 309298
  Yards/Play 5.625.96
  EPA -3.540.41
  EPA/Play -0.060.01
Rushes 20 (27%)14 (22%)
  Yards 7131
  Yards/Play 3.552.21
  EPA -9.35-5.29
  EPA/Play -0.47-0.38
Rushing ESPN team id 152 ESPN team id 344
Scrimmage Plays 7564
Rushes 20 (27%)14 (22%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 1 (5%)0 (0%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 1 (100%)0 (0%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 2 (10%)3 (21%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 10 (50%)10 (71%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 7 (35%)3 (21%)
OL Line Yards 4621.1
  Per Carry 2.301.51
Highlight Yards 102
  Per Rush Opportunity 1.430.67
Explosiveness ESPN team id 152 ESPN team id 344
Total Plays 8976
Scrimmage Plays 7564
Explosive Plays 5 (7%)3 (5%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 5 (9%)3 (6%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 0 (0%)0 (0%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -31.75-13.97
  EPA/Play -0.45-0.23
  When Passing -22.40-8.69
    EPA/Play -0.41-0.17
  When Rushing -9.35-5.29
    EPA/Play -0.47-0.38
Situational ESPN team id 152 ESPN team id 344
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 28 (37%)24 (38%)
  When Passing 22 (40%)21 (42%)
  When Rushing 6 (30%)3 (21%)
  On Standard Downs 19 (40%)16 (41%)
  On Passing Downs 9 (32%)8 (32%)
  On Early Downs 21 (40%)20 (41%)
  On Late Downs 7 (30%)4 (27%)
  During "Middle 8" 3 (38%)8 (73%)
Early Downs 5249
  First Downs Created 9 (17%)10 (20%)
  EPA -7.420.92
  EPA/Play -0.140.02
  Passes 33 (63%)35 (71%)
  Rushes 19 (37%)14 (29%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 15 (45%)17 (49%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 6 (32%)3 (21%)
"Middle 8" Plays 811
  EPA 0.729.45
  EPA/play 0.090.86
  Passes 6 (75%)8 (73%)
  Rushes 2 (25%)3 (27%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 3 (50%)6 (75%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 0 (0%)2 (67%)
Drives ESPN team id 152 ESPN team id 344
Total 1513
Avg Starting Field Position Own 32Own 30
Plays/Drive 6.917.27
Yards/Drive 29.8437.06
Available Yards % 44%53%
Defensive ESPN team id 152 ESPN team id 344
Scrimmage Plays 6475
Stop Rate 53%55%
Havoc Plays Created 2 (3%)6 (8%)
  Passing 1 (2%)6 (11%)
  Rushing 1 (7%)0 (0%)
TFLs Generated 24
  Passing 14
  Rushing 10
Sacks Generated 1 (2%)4 (7%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 02
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 152 ESPN team id 344
Turnovers 30
  Fumbles 20
  Fumbles Lost 10
  Fumbles Recovered 10
  Interceptions 20
Turnover Margin -33
Expected Turnovers 1.41.0
Expected Turnover Margin -0.40.4
Turnover Luck (pts) -12.812.8
Special Teams ESPN team id 152 ESPN team id 344
Total Plays 14 12
Total EPA -3.93 8.03
  Field Goal EPA -1.55 0.24
  Punting EPA -2.37 -3.52
  Kickoff Return EPA 0 11.32

NC State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Devin Leary 30/49, 309 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 4 Scks, 48.7 xQBR 5.83 0.06 3.11 42% -20.0%
Ben Finley 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 18.6 xQBR 0.00 -0.62 -0.62 0% 0.0%
Ricky Person Jr. 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 0 Scks, 8.0 xQBR 0.00 -6.04 -6.04 0% -12.0%
Rush attempts
Jordan Houston 1 carry, 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.69 -0.69 0% 0.0%
Devin Leary 4 carries, 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.20 -0.81 50% 5.0%
Zonovan Knight 7 carries, 26 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.71 -0.36 -2.54 29% -2.0%
Ricky Person Jr. 8 carries, 31 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.88 -0.66 -5.31 25% -13.0%
Pass targets
Emeka Emezie 6 catches (8 targets), 92 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.33 1.25 10.02 62% 9.0%
Devin Carter 5 catches (11 targets), 79 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.80 0.48 5.24 45% -1.0%
Porter Rooks 2 catches (2 targets), 58 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 29.00 2.22 4.44 100% 0.0%
Thayer Thomas 7 catches (11 targets), 45 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.43 0.05 0.59 55% -3.0%
Dylan Parham 1 catch (1 target), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.01 0.01 100% 0.0%
Jordan Houston 1 catch (1 target), 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.31 -0.31 0% 0.0%
Christopher Toudle 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.87 -0.87 0% 0.0%
Anthony Smith 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.63 -1.26 0% -1.0%
C.J. Riley 1 catch (2 targets), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.73 -1.45 0% -1.0%
Zonovan Knight 2 catches (3 targets), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.50 -0.50 -1.49 33% -2.0%
Ricky Person Jr. 3 catches (4 targets), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.54 -2.14 25% 0.0%
Trent Pennix 2 catches (3 targets), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.50 -0.77 -2.30 33% -18.0%

Mississippi State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Will Rogers 33/49, 298 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 50.6 xQBR 5.96 0.01 0.41 42% -5.0%
Rush attempts
Will Rogers 1 carry, 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.95 -0.95 0% 0.0%
Dillon Johnson 6 carries, 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.28 -1.67 33% -3.0%
Jo'quavious Marks 6 carries, 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.17 -0.43 -2.57 17% -2.0%
Pass targets
Austin Williams 3 catches (3 targets), 48 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.00 1.67 5.01 100% 11.0%
Jaden Walley 5 catches (8 targets), 44 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.80 0.36 2.86 62% 8.0%
Dillon Johnson 6 catches (6 targets), 70 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.67 0.42 2.50 50% 3.0%
Malik Heath 2 catches (4 targets), 29 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.50 0.25 1.02 50% 4.0%
Lideatrick Griffin 3 catches (3 targets), 22 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.33 0.29 0.87 100% 1.0%
Jamire Calvin 2 catches (3 targets), 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.50 -0.12 -0.37 33% -1.0%
Makai Polk 4 catches (10 targets), 33 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.25 -0.20 -2.01 20% -1.0%
Caleb Ducking 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.11 -2.22 0% -1.0%
Jo'quavious Marks 7 catches (8 targets), 32 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.57 -0.34 -2.72 25% -25.0%
Rara Thomas 1 catch (2 targets), 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -1.57 -3.14 0% -1.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 8:25 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & Goal at MSST 5) Ricky Person Jr. pass intercepted, touchback. - NCST 0, MSST 7 -6.04 47.7% -11.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 80

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.92 - 4.12 = -6.04

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.88)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.92)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.7%

Win Probability (After): 35.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:47 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) Lideatrick Griffin 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Brandon Ruiz Kick) - NCST 0, MSST 7 5.84 49.0% 14.4%

Play Type: Kickoff Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.16 = 5.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.16)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.0%

Win Probability (After): 63.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 22 at MSST 48) Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 38 yds to the MisSt 10 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 24 5.29 0.5% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 10

Started Drive at: NCST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - -0.77 = 5.29

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.77)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-16.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 3 at NCST 27) Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 37 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 24 5.04 0.5% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 36

Started Drive at: NCST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.45 - -2.59 = 5.04

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-23.59)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-18.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 14:47 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) Trenton Gill kickoff 65 yards, Lideatrick Griffin returns 100 yards to NCS00, TOUCHDOWN (Brandon Ruiz Kick) - NCST 0, MSST 7 4.73 66.4% -3.6%

Play Type: Kickoff Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.27 = 4.73

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.27)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.4%

Win Probability (After): 62.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:13 ESPN team id 152 (4th & Goal at MSST 21) Devin Leary sacked by Emmanuel Forbes for a loss of 15 yards to the MisSt 36 - NCST 3, MSST 24 -3.93 0.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 64

Started Drive at: NCST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.08 - 0.85 = -3.93

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.15)

Score Difference (End): 21 (24.08)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 5 at MSST 39) PENALTY MSU Offside (Brule,Aaron) 5 yards from MSU39 to MSU34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. - NCST 0, MSST 7 3.63 36.1% 7.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 34

Started Drive at: NCST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.24 - -0.39 = 3.63

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.39)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.1%

Win Probability (After): 43.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:09 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 5 at NCST 21) Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 21 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - NCST 3, MSST 14 3.50 70.0% 7.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.50 = 3.50

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.50)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.0%

Win Probability (After): 77.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:48 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 6 at MSST 30) Christopher Dunn 48 yd FG MISSED - NCST 0, MSST 7 -3.25 36.8% -3.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 70

Started Drive at: MSST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.60 - 0.65 = -3.25

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.35)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.60)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.8%

Win Probability (After): 33.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 1 at MSST 35) Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the MisSt 39 - NCST 0, MSST 7 -3.21 42.8% -6.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 39

Started Drive at: NCST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.39 - 2.82 = -3.21

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.18)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.8%

Win Probability (After): 36.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 1:03 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) kickoff for 15 yds - NCST 3, MSST 24 0.75 99.9% -63.6%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 50

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.76 - 1.01 = 0.75

Score Difference (Before): 21 (22.01)

Score Difference (End): 21 (22.76)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 36.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q2 6:18 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 1 at NCST 30) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 2 yds to the NCSt 32 - NCST 3, MSST 7 -0.95 64.1% -24.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 68

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.77 - 2.72 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.72)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.77)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.1%

Win Probability (After): 39.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 14:47 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 7 at NCST 42) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Trent Pennix - NCST 1, MSST 15 -1.72 46.6% -17.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.19 - 0.54 = -1.72

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.46)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-7.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 1, MSST 15

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.6%

Win Probability (After): 29.3%

Away Score: 1 (1) Home Score: 7 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:47 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) Lideatrick Griffin 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Brandon Ruiz Kick) - NCST 0, MSST 7 5.84 49.0% 14.4%

Play Type: Kickoff Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.16 = 5.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.16)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.0%

Win Probability (After): 63.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:25 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & Goal at MSST 5) Ricky Person Jr. pass intercepted, touchback. - NCST 0, MSST 7 -6.04 47.7% -11.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 80

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.92 - 4.12 = -6.04

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.88)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.92)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.7%

Win Probability (After): 35.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:15 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 7 at NCST 42) Trenton Gill punt for 38 yds - NCST 0, MSST 7 -0.16 24.9% 8.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 75

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.27 - -2.11 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-16.11)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.27)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.9%

Win Probability (After): 33.6%

Away Score: 1 (0) Home Score: 15 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:27 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 7 at NCST 39) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 13 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 7 3.01 59.3% 8.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 26

Started Drive at: MSST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.57 - 0.56 = 3.01

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.56)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.3%

Win Probability (After): 67.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 12:46 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 3 at MSST 27) Christopher Dunn 45 yd FG GOOD - NCST 3, MSST 7 1.69 37.7% 7.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 65

Started Drive at: NCST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.31 = 1.69

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.69)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.7%

Win Probability (After): 45.5%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 5 at MSST 39) PENALTY MSU Offside (Brule,Aaron) 5 yards from MSU39 to MSU34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. - NCST 0, MSST 7 3.63 36.1% 7.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 34

Started Drive at: NCST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.24 - -0.39 = 3.63

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.39)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.1%

Win Probability (After): 43.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:09 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 5 at NCST 21) Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 21 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - NCST 3, MSST 14 3.50 70.0% 7.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.50 = 3.50

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.50)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.0%

Win Probability (After): 77.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 14:47 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) Lideatrick Griffin 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Brandon Ruiz Kick) - NCST 0, MSST 7 5.84 49.0% 14.4%

Play Type: Kickoff Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.16 = 5.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.16)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.0%

Win Probability (After): 63.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:47 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) Trenton Gill kickoff 65 yards, Lideatrick Griffin returns 100 yards to NCS00, TOUCHDOWN (Brandon Ruiz Kick) - NCST 0, MSST 7 4.73 66.4% -3.6%

Play Type: Kickoff Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.27 = 4.73

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.27)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.4%

Win Probability (After): 62.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:46 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 3 at MSST 27) Christopher Dunn 45 yd FG GOOD - NCST 3, MSST 7 1.69 37.7% 7.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 65

Started Drive at: NCST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.31 = 1.69

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.69)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.7%

Win Probability (After): 45.5%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:09 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 5 at NCST 21) Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 21 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - NCST 3, MSST 14 3.50 70.0% 7.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.50 = 3.50

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.50)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.0%

Win Probability (After): 77.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:59 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & Goal at NCST 4) Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 4 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK) - NCST 3, MSST 21 1.25 91.3% 0.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.75 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.75)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.3%

Win Probability (After): 92.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:30 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 10 at NCST 14) Nolan McCord 32 yd FG GOOD - NCST 3, MSST 24 0.24 98.9% 0.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSST 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.76 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.76)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:06 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & Goal at MSST 4) Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 4 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) - NCST 10, MSST 24 2.66 0.5% 0.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: NCST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.34 = 2.66

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-16.66)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.9%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 14:47 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) Lideatrick Griffin 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Brandon Ruiz Kick) - NCST 0, MSST 7 5.84 49.0% 14.4%

Play Type: Kickoff Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.16 = 5.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.16)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.0%

Win Probability (After): 63.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:47 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) Trenton Gill kickoff 65 yards, Lideatrick Griffin returns 100 yards to NCS00, TOUCHDOWN (Brandon Ruiz Kick) - NCST 0, MSST 7 4.73 66.4% -3.6%

Play Type: Kickoff Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.27 = 4.73

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.27)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.4%

Win Probability (After): 62.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:47 ESPN team id 152 (Kickoff at NCST 35) Brandon Ruiz kickoff for 65 yds - NCST 0, MSST 7 0.00 42.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.16 - -0.16 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.16)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.2%

Win Probability (After): 42.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:47 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 25) PENALTY MSU Offside (Young,Cameron) 5 yards from NCS25 to NCS30. NO PLAY. - NCST 0, MSST 7 0.99 42.2% 2.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - -0.16 = 0.99

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.16)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.2%

Win Probability (After): 44.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:47 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 5 at NCST 30) Zonovan Knight run for 9 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST down - NCST 0, MSST 7 0.18 44.7% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 61

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.00 - 0.82 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.18)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.7%

Win Probability (After): 45.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:47 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 39) PENALTY NCS False Start (Gibson,Grant) 5 yards from NCS39 to NCS34. NO PLAY. - NCST 0, MSST 7 -0.67 45.9% -4.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 66

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.34 - 1.00 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.00)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.9%

Win Probability (After): 41.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:47 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 15 at NCST 34) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie - NCST 0, MSST 7 -0.65 41.2% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.31 - 0.34 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.66)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.2%

Win Probability (After): 40.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:47 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 15 at NCST 34) Devin Leary run for 8 yds to the NCSt 42 - NCST 1, MSST 7 0.85 40.2% 6.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 58

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.54 - -0.31 = 0.85

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.31)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 1, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.2%

Win Probability (After): 46.6%

Away Score: 0 (1) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:47 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 7 at NCST 42) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Trent Pennix - NCST 1, MSST 15 -1.72 46.6% -17.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.19 - 0.54 = -1.72

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.46)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-7.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 1, MSST 15

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.6%

Win Probability (After): 29.3%

Away Score: 1 (1) Home Score: 7 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:15 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 7 at NCST 42) Trenton Gill punt for 38 yds - NCST 0, MSST 7 -0.16 24.9% 8.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 75

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.27 - -2.11 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-16.11)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.27)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.9%

Win Probability (After): 33.6%

Away Score: 1 (0) Home Score: 15 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 13:15 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 25) Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27 - NCST 0, MSST 7 -0.46 67.5% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.65 - 2.10 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.10)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.5%

Win Probability (After): 66.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:15 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 8 at MSST 27) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 3 yds to the MisSt 30 - NCST 0, MSST 7 -0.36 66.2% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 70

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.29 - 1.65 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.65)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.2%

Win Probability (After): 65.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:15 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 5 at MSST 30) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley - NCST 0, MSST 7 -1.56 65.6% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.27 - 1.29 = -1.56

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.29)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.6%

Win Probability (After): 62.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:48 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 5 at MSST 30) Tucker Day punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line - NCST 0, MSST 7 -1.45 59.4% -6.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 50

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.80 - -0.35 = -1.45

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.65)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.20)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.4%

Win Probability (After): 52.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 11:48 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at 50) Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 8 yds to the MisSt 42 - NCST 0, MSST 7 0.76 44.9% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 42

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - 1.73 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.27)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.9%

Win Probability (After): 46.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:48 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 2 at MSST 42) Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 3 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down - NCST 0, MSST 7 0.19 46.2% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 39

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.67 - 2.49 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.51)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.2%

Win Probability (After): 47.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:48 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at MSST 39) Devin Leary pass complete to C.J. Riley for 4 yds to the MisSt 35 - NCST 0, MSST 7 -0.11 47.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 35

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.56 - 2.67 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.33)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.0%

Win Probability (After): 46.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:48 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 6 at MSST 35) Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the MisSt 32 - NCST 0, MSST 7 -0.08 46.7% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 32

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 2.56 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.44)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.7%

Win Probability (After): 45.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:48 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 3 at MSST 32) Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 24 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST down - NCST 0, MSST 7 2.74 45.7% 6.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 8

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.22 - 2.48 = 2.74

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.52)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-1.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.7%

Win Probability (After): 51.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:48 ESPN team id 152 (1st & Goal at MSST 8) Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 6 yds to the MisSt 2 - NCST 0, MSST 7 0.56 51.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 2

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.78 - 5.22 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.78)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-1.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.8%

Win Probability (After): 52.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:48 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & Goal at MSST 2) Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 3 yds to the MisSt 5 - NCST 0, MSST 7 -1.70 52.0% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 5

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 5.78 = -1.70

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.22)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.0%

Win Probability (After): 49.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:25 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & Goal at MSST 5) Ricky Person Jr. pass intercepted, touchback. - NCST 0, MSST 7 -6.04 47.7% -11.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 80

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.92 - 4.12 = -6.04

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.88)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.92)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.7%

Win Probability (After): 35.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:25 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 20) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for no gain to the MisSt 20 - NCST 0, MSST 7 -0.60 66.5% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.32 - 1.93 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.93)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.5%

Win Probability (After): 65.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:25 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 10 at MSST 20) Will Rogers sacked by Payton Wilson for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 17 - NCST 0, MSST 7 -1.39 65.7% -2.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 83

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 1.32 = -1.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.32)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.7%

Win Probability (After): 63.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:25 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 13 at MSST 17) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik Heath - NCST 0, MSST 7 -0.98 63.1% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 83

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.05 - -0.06 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.94)

Score Difference (End): 7 (5.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.1%

Win Probability (After): 60.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:50 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 13 at MSST 17) Tucker Day punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 47 - NCST 0, MSST 7 -1.18 58.9% -2.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 47

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.21 - -1.03 = -1.18

Score Difference (Before): 7 (5.97)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.79)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.9%

Win Probability (After): 56.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 6:50 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at MSST 47) Ricky Person Jr. run for 13 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST down - NCST 0, MSST 7 0.93 42.4% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 34

Started Drive at: MSST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.18 - 2.25 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.75)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.4%

Win Probability (After): 44.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:50 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at MSST 34) Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 32 - NCST 0, MSST 7 -0.40 44.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 32

Started Drive at: MSST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.78 - 3.18 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.82)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:50 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 8 at MSST 32) Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 30 - NCST 0, MSST 7 -0.55 43.3% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 30

Started Drive at: MSST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.23 - 2.78 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.22)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.3%

Win Probability (After): 41.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:50 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 6 at MSST 30) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas - NCST 0, MSST 7 -1.57 41.6% -4.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: MSST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - 2.23 = -1.57

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.77)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.6%

Win Probability (After): 36.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:48 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 6 at MSST 30) Christopher Dunn 48 yd FG MISSED - NCST 0, MSST 7 -3.25 36.8% -3.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 70

Started Drive at: MSST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.60 - 0.65 = -3.25

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.35)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.60)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.8%

Win Probability (After): 33.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:48 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 30) Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the MisSt 30 - NCST 0, MSST 7 -0.65 66.0% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: MSST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.94 - 2.59 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.59)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.0%

Win Probability (After): 65.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:48 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 10 at MSST 30) Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 3 yds to the MisSt 33 - NCST 0, MSST 7 -0.85 65.0% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 67

Started Drive at: MSST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 1.94 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.94)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.0%

Win Probability (After): 63.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:48 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 7 at MSST 33) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk - NCST 0, MSST 7 -1.34 63.8% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: MSST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.25 - 1.08 = -1.34

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.08)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.8%

Win Probability (After): 61.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:11 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 7 at MSST 33) Tucker Day punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 30 - NCST 0, MSST 7 -0.30 64.8% -2.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 70

Started Drive at: MSST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.53 - -0.23 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.77)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.47)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.8%

Win Probability (After): 62.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 3:11 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 30) Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 28 - NCST 0, MSST 7 -1.32 38.0% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 72

Started Drive at: NCST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.79 - 0.53 = -1.32

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.47)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.0%

Win Probability (After): 35.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:11 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 12 at NCST 28) Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 8 yds to the NCSt 36 - NCST 0, MSST 7 0.90 35.6% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 64

Started Drive at: NCST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.10 - -0.79 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.79)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.6%

Win Probability (After): 37.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:11 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 4 at NCST 36) Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 5 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST down - NCST 0, MSST 7 1.24 37.8% 2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 59

Started Drive at: NCST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.34 - 0.10 = 1.24

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.90)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.8%

Win Probability (After): 39.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:11 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 41) Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 15 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST down - NCST 0, MSST 7 1.03 39.8% 3.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 44

Started Drive at: NCST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.37 - 1.34 = 1.03

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.66)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.8%

Win Probability (After): 43.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:11 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at MSST 44) Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the MisSt 44 - NCST 0, MSST 7 -0.62 43.3% -2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: NCST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.75 - 2.37 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.63)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.3%

Win Probability (After): 40.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 10 at MSST 44) Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 9 yds to the MisSt 35 - NCST 0, MSST 7 0.85 39.3% 3.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 35

Started Drive at: NCST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - 1.89 = 0.85

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.11)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.3%

Win Probability (After): 43.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 1 at MSST 35) Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the MisSt 39 - NCST 0, MSST 7 -3.21 42.8% -6.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 39

Started Drive at: NCST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.39 - 2.82 = -3.21

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.18)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.8%

Win Probability (After): 36.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 5 at MSST 39) PENALTY MSU Offside (Brule,Aaron) 5 yards from MSU39 to MSU34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. - NCST 0, MSST 7 3.63 36.1% 7.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 34

Started Drive at: NCST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.24 - -0.39 = 3.63

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.39)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.1%

Win Probability (After): 43.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at MSST 34) Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for no gain to the MisSt 34 - NCST 0, MSST 7 -0.61 43.6% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: NCST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.64 - 3.24 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.76)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.6%

Win Probability (After): 42.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 10 at MSST 34) Ricky Person Jr. run for 7 yds to the MisSt 27 - NCST 0, MSST 7 0.40 42.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 27

Started Drive at: NCST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.03 - 2.64 = 0.40

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.36)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.8%

Win Probability (After): 42.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 3 at MSST 27) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter - NCST 0, MSST 7 -1.77 42.8% -5.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 27

Started Drive at: NCST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 3.03 = -1.77

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.97)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.8%

Win Probability (After): 37.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:46 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 3 at MSST 27) Christopher Dunn 45 yd FG GOOD - NCST 3, MSST 7 1.69 37.7% 7.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 65

Started Drive at: NCST 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.31 = 1.69

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.69)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.7%

Win Probability (After): 45.5%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 12:46 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) Trenton Gill kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NCST 3, MSST 7 0.00 60.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.50 - 1.50 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.50)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.5%

Win Probability (After): 60.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:46 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 25) Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 9 yds to the MisSt 34 - NCST 3, MSST 7 1.01 60.5% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.51 - 1.50 = 1.01

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.50)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.5%

Win Probability (After): 61.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:46 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 6 at MSST 29) Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 8 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 7 0.92 59.6% 2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 63

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.31 - 1.39 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.39)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.6%

Win Probability (After): 61.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:46 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 37) Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 39 - NCST 3, MSST 7 -0.51 61.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 61

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.80 - 2.31 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.31)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.6%

Win Probability (After): 61.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:46 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 8 at MSST 39) PENALTY MSU False Start (Lashley,Scott) 5 yards from MSU39 to MSU34. NO PLAY. - NCST 3, MSST 7 -0.48 61.4% -2.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 66

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.32 - 1.80 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.80)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.4%

Win Probability (After): 59.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:46 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 13 at MSST 34) Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 7 1.68 59.1% 5.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 50

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.32 = 1.68

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.32)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.1%

Win Probability (After): 64.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:46 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at 50) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the NCSt 45 - NCST 3, MSST 7 0.08 64.4% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 45

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.08 - 3.00 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.00)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.4%

Win Probability (After): 64.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:46 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 5 at NCST 45) Jo'quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 7 0.62 64.7% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 39

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.69 - 3.08 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.08)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.7%

Win Probability (After): 65.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:46 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at NCST 39) Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 5 yds to the NCSt 34 - NCST 3, MSST 7 0.09 65.4% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 34

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 3.69 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.69)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.4%

Win Probability (After): 65.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:46 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 5 at NCST 34) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 1 yd to the NCSt 33 - NCST 3, MSST 7 -0.52 65.4% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 33

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.26 - 3.79 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.79)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.4%

Win Probability (After): 64.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:46 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 4 at NCST 33) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 3 yds to the NCSt 30 - NCST 3, MSST 7 -0.34 64.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 30

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 3.26 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.26)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.2%

Win Probability (After): 63.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:46 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 1 at MSST 34) Rogers,Will pass complete to Ducking,Caleb for 13 yards to the MSU47 (Moore,Isaiah; Wilson,Payton) PENALTY MSU Illegal Formation (Ducking,Caleb) 5 yards from MSU34 to MSU29. NO PLAY. - NCST 3, MSST 7 -1.12 61.5% -1.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 71

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.39 - 2.51 = -1.12

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.51)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.5%

Win Probability (After): 59.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:22 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 4 at NCST 33) Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 06:22 - NCST 3, MSST 7 0.00 61.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 30

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.39 - 1.39 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.39)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.5%

Win Probability (After): 61.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:18 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 1 at NCST 30) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 2 yds to the NCSt 32 - NCST 3, MSST 7 -0.95 64.1% -24.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 68

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.77 - 2.72 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.72)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.77)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.1%

Win Probability (After): 39.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 6:18 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 32) Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 33 - NCST 3, MSST 7 -0.59 47.2% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 67

Started Drive at: NCST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - 1.39 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.61)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.2%

Win Probability (After): 45.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:18 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 9 at NCST 33) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter - NCST 3, MSST 7 -0.79 45.6% -3.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: NCST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.00 - 0.79 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.21)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.6%

Win Probability (After): 41.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:18 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 9 at NCST 33) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas - NCST 3, MSST 7 -1.23 41.9% -2.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: NCST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.23 - 0.00 = -1.23

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.00)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-5.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.9%

Win Probability (After): 39.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:39 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 9 at NCST 33) Trenton Gill punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 17 - NCST 3, MSST 7 0.35 39.0% 1.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 83

Started Drive at: NCST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.97 - -1.32 = 0.35

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-5.32)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.97)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.0%

Win Probability (After): 40.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:39 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 17) Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 3 yds to the MisSt 20 - NCST 3, MSST 7 -0.37 59.9% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 80

Started Drive at: MSST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.37 - 0.74 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.74)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.9%

Win Probability (After): 57.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:39 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 7 at MSST 20) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jamire Calvin - NCST 3, MSST 7 -0.73 57.9% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80

Started Drive at: MSST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.36 - 0.37 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.37)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.9%

Win Probability (After): 56.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:39 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 7 at MSST 20) Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 11 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 7 1.78 56.2% 5.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 69

Started Drive at: MSST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.42 - -0.36 = 1.78

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.64)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.2%

Win Probability (After): 61.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:39 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 31) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks - NCST 3, MSST 7 -0.59 61.2% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: MSST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - 1.42 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.42)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.2%

Win Probability (After): 60.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:39 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 10 at MSST 31) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk - NCST 3, MSST 7 -0.70 60.0% -3.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: MSST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.14 - 0.84 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.84)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.0%

Win Probability (After): 56.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:39 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 10 at MSST 31) Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 10 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 7 1.84 56.8% 7.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 59

Started Drive at: MSST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.98 - 0.14 = 1.84

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.14)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.8%

Win Probability (After): 63.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:39 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 41) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 17 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 7 0.97 63.8% 1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 42

Started Drive at: MSST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.95 - 1.98 = 0.97

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.98)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.8%

Win Probability (After): 65.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:39 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at NCST 42) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 1 yd to the NCSt 41 - NCST 3, MSST 7 -0.38 65.7% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 41

Started Drive at: MSST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 2.95 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.95)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.7%

Win Probability (After): 65.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:39 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 9 at NCST 41) Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the NCSt 39 - NCST 3, MSST 7 -0.46 65.2% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 39

Started Drive at: MSST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.12 - 2.57 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.57)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.2%

Win Probability (After): 63.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:39 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 7 at NCST 39) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk - NCST 3, MSST 7 -1.62 63.9% -3.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39

Started Drive at: MSST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.50 - 2.12 = -1.62

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.12)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.9%

Win Probability (After): 60.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:27 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 7 at NCST 39) Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 02:27 - NCST 3, MSST 7 0.00 61.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39

Started Drive at: MSST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.50 - 0.50 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.50)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.4%

Win Probability (After): 61.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:27 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 7 at NCST 39) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 13 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 7 3.01 59.3% 8.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 26

Started Drive at: MSST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.57 - 0.56 = 3.01

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.56)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.3%

Win Probability (After): 67.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:27 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at NCST 26) Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the NCSt 21 - NCST 3, MSST 7 0.21 67.8% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 21

Started Drive at: MSST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.78 - 3.57 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.57)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.8%

Win Probability (After): 68.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:09 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 5 at NCST 21) Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 21 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - NCST 3, MSST 14 3.50 70.0% 7.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.50 = 3.50

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.50)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.0%

Win Probability (After): 77.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:09 ESPN team id 152 (Kickoff at NCST 35) Brandon Ruiz kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NCST 3, MSST 14 0.00 25.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 0.66 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.34)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.6%

Win Probability (After): 25.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:09 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 25) Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 5 yds to the NCSt 30 - NCST 3, MSST 14 0.10 25.6% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.76 - 0.66 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.34)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.6%

Win Probability (After): 26.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:09 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 5 at NCST 30) Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 7 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 14 0.37 26.1% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 63

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 0.76 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.24)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.1%

Win Probability (After): 26.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:09 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 37) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie - NCST 3, MSST 14 -0.26 26.5% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.88 - 1.13 = -0.26

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.87)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.5%

Win Probability (After): 25.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:09 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 10 at NCST 37) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter - NCST 3, MSST 14 -0.33 25.9% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 0.88 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.12)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.9%

Win Probability (After): 24.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:09 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 10 at NCST 37) Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for no gain to the NCSt 37 - NCST 3, MSST 14 -0.79 24.0% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.24 - 0.55 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.45)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.0%

Win Probability (After): 22.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:30 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 10 at NCST 37) Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 00:30 - NCST 3, MSST 14 0.00 24.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.24 - -0.24 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.24)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.6%

Win Probability (After): 24.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q2 0:21 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 10 at NCST 37) Trenton Gill punt for 41 yds - NCST 3, MSST 14 -0.77 22.7% -3.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 50

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.81 - -0.04 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.04)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.81)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.7%

Win Probability (After): 19.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:21 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at 50) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk - NCST 3, MSST 14 -0.03 81.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.78 - 0.81 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.81)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.0%

Win Probability (After): 80.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:21 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 10 at 50) Rogers,Will pass complete to Calvin,Jamire for 12 yards to the NCS38 (Harris,Jakeen) PENALTY MSU Holding (Johnson,Kwatrivous) 10 yards from MSU50 to MSU40. NO PLAY. - NCST 3, MSST 14 -0.43 80.5% -1.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 60

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.78 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.78)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.5%

Win Probability (After): 79.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 20 at MSST 40) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 15 yds to the NCSt 45 - NCST 3, MSST 14 -0.12 78.6% 2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 45

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 0.12 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.12)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.6%

Win Probability (After): 80.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 152 (Kickoff at NCST 35) Scott Goodman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NCST 3, MSST 14 0.00 21.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.24 - -0.24 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.24)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.9%

Win Probability (After): 21.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 25) Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the NCSt 29 - NCST 3, MSST 14 -0.04 21.9% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.27 - -0.24 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.24)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.9%

Win Probability (After): 21.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 6 at NCST 29) Devin Leary run for 1 yd to the NCSt 30 - NCST 3, MSST 14 -0.71 21.4% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 70

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.98 - -0.27 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.27)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.4%

Win Probability (After): 20.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 5 at NCST 30) Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 13 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 14 2.37 20.4% 3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 57

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.39 - -0.98 = 2.37

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.98)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.4%

Win Probability (After): 23.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:11 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 46) Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 45 - NCST 3, MSST 14 -1.07 83.1% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 55

Started Drive at: MSST 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.25 - 3.32 = -1.07

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.32)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.1%

Win Probability (After): 81.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:11 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 11 at MSST 45) Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 34 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 14 2.60 82.3% 5.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 21

Started Drive at: MSST 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.97 - 2.38 = 2.60

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.38)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.3%

Win Probability (After): 87.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:11 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at NCST 21) PENALTY MSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from NCS21 to NCS26. NO PLAY. - NCST 3, MSST 14 -0.68 87.7% -1.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 26

Started Drive at: MSST 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.30 - 4.97 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.97)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.7%

Win Probability (After): 86.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:11 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 15 at NCST 26) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the NCSt 21 - NCST 3, MSST 14 0.10 86.0% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 21

Started Drive at: MSST 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.40 - 4.30 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.30)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.0%

Win Probability (After): 86.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:11 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 10 at NCST 21) Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the NCSt 13 - NCST 3, MSST 14 0.33 86.9% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 13

Started Drive at: MSST 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.73 - 4.40 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.40)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.9%

Win Probability (After): 87.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:11 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 2 at NCST 13) Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 3 yds to the NCSt 10 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 14 0.63 87.6% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 10

Started Drive at: MSST 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.36 - 4.73 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.73)

Score Difference (End): 11 (16.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.6%

Win Probability (After): 88.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:11 ESPN team id 344 (1st & Goal at NCST 10) Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 6 yds to the NCSt 4 - NCST 3, MSST 14 0.30 88.6% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 4

Started Drive at: MSST 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.65 - 5.36 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.36)

Score Difference (End): 11 (16.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.6%

Win Probability (After): 89.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:59 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & Goal at NCST 4) Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 4 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK) - NCST 3, MSST 21 1.25 91.3% 0.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.75 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.75)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.3%

Win Probability (After): 92.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:59 ESPN team id 152 (Kickoff at NCST 35) Scott Goodman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NCST 3, MSST 21 0.00 4.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.36 - -0.36 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.36)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.8%

Win Probability (After): 4.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:59 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 25) Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 15 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 21 1.27 4.8% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 60

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - -0.36 = 1.27

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.36)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.8%

Win Probability (After): 5.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:59 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 40) Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 41 - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.54 5.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 59

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.37 - 0.91 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.09)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.2%

Win Probability (After): 5.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:59 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 9 at NCST 41) Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 21 1.36 5.1% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 50

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.73 - 0.37 = 1.36

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.63)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-16.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.1%

Win Probability (After): 6.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:59 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at 50) Devin Leary sacked by Aaron Odom for 0 yards to the NCSt 49 Devin Leary fumbled, recovered by NCSt Bryson Speas , return for 0 yards , return for 1 yd to the NCSt 49 - NCST 3, MSST 21 -1.30 6.4% -1.3%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 51

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 1.73 = -1.30

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-16.27)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 5.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:59 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 11 at NCST 49) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Zonovan Knight - NCST 3, MSST 21 -1.07 5.0% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 51

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.63 - 0.44 = -1.07

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.56)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.0%

Win Probability (After): 4.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:59 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 11 at NCST 49) Devin Leary pass incomplete to C.J. Riley - NCST 3, MSST 21 -1.34 4.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 51

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.97 - -0.63 = -1.34

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.63)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-19.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.3%

Win Probability (After): 3.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:59 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 11 at NCST 49) PENALTY NCS Delay Of Game 5 yards from NCS49 to NCS44. NO PLAY. - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.32 3.6% -0.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 56

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.29 - -1.97 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-19.97)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-20.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.6%

Win Probability (After): 3.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:02 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 16 at NCST 44) Trenton Gill punt for 38 yds - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.54 2.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 71

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.91 - -2.37 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-20.37)

Score Difference (End): 18 (20.91)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.8%

Win Probability (After): 3.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:02 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 29) Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 11 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 21 0.40 97.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 60

Started Drive at: MSST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.39 - 2.99 = 0.40

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.99)

Score Difference (End): 18 (21.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.1%

Win Probability (After): 97.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:02 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 40) PENALTY MSU False Start (Johnson,Kwatrivous) 5 yards from MSU40 to MSU35. NO PLAY. - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.47 97.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 3.39 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 18 (21.39)

Score Difference (End): 18 (20.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.2%

Win Probability (After): 97.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:02 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 15 at MSST 35) Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 6 yds to the MisSt 41 - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.04 97.0% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 59

Started Drive at: MSST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.88 - 2.92 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.92)

Score Difference (End): 18 (20.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.0%

Win Probability (After): 97.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:02 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 9 at MSST 41) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Caleb Ducking - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.96 97.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59

Started Drive at: MSST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.92 - 2.88 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.88)

Score Difference (End): 18 (19.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.1%

Win Probability (After): 96.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:02 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 9 at MSST 41) Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 8 yds to the MisSt 49 - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.21 96.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 51

Started Drive at: MSST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.71 - 1.92 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): 18 (19.92)

Score Difference (End): 18 (19.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.8%

Win Probability (After): 96.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:36 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 9 at MSST 41) Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 04:36 - NCST 3, MSST 21 0.00 97.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 51

Started Drive at: MSST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.71 - 1.71 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 18 (19.71)

Score Difference (End): 18 (19.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.0%

Win Probability (After): 97.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:29 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 1 at MSST 49) Tucker Day punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 9 - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.59 96.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 91

Started Drive at: MSST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.18 - 1.76 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 18 (19.76)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-19.18)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.8%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 4:29 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 9) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Anthony Smith - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.69 3.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 91

Started Drive at: NCST 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.88 - -1.18 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-19.18)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-19.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.5%

Win Probability (After): 3.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:29 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 10 at NCST 9) PENALTY NCS False Start (McMahon,Dylan) 4 yards from NCS09 to NCS05. NO PLAY. - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.70 3.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 95

Started Drive at: NCST 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.57 - -1.88 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-19.88)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-20.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.0%

Win Probability (After): 2.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:29 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 14 at NCST 5) Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 6 yds to the NCSt 11 - NCST 3, MSST 21 0.01 2.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 95 -> 89

Started Drive at: NCST 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.56 - -2.57 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-20.57)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-20.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.7%

Win Probability (After): 2.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:29 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 8 at NCST 11) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.88 2.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 89

Started Drive at: NCST 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.44 - -2.56 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-20.56)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-21.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.6%

Win Probability (After): 2.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:21 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 8 at NCST 11) Trenton Gill punt for 48 yds - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.20 1.9% 0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 54

Started Drive at: NCST 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.65 - -3.44 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-21.44)

Score Difference (End): 18 (21.65)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.9%

Win Probability (After): 2.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:21 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 46) Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 47 - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.57 97.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 53

Started Drive at: MSST 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.08 - 3.65 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 18 (21.65)

Score Difference (End): 18 (21.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.6%

Win Probability (After): 97.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:21 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 9 at MSST 47) Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 13 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 21 1.26 97.4% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 40

Started Drive at: MSST 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.33 - 3.08 = 1.26

Score Difference (Before): 18 (21.08)

Score Difference (End): 18 (22.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.4%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:21 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at NCST 40) Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the NCSt 37 - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.47 97.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 37

Started Drive at: MSST 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.86 - 4.33 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 18 (22.33)

Score Difference (End): 18 (21.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:21 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 7 at NCST 37) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley - NCST 3, MSST 21 -1.04 97.8% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 37

Started Drive at: MSST 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 3.86 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): 18 (21.86)

Score Difference (End): 18 (20.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:21 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 7 at NCST 37) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara Thomas - NCST 3, MSST 21 -1.81 97.4% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 37

Started Drive at: MSST 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 2.82 = -1.81

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.82)

Score Difference (End): 18 (19.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.4%

Win Probability (After): 96.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:21 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 7 at NCST 37) PENALTY MSU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Johnson,Kwatrivous) 15 yards from NCS37 to MSU48. NO PLAY. - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.75 96.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 52

Started Drive at: MSST 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.26 - 1.01 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): 18 (19.01)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.8%

Win Probability (After): 96.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:15 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 22 at MSST 48) Tucker Day punt for 27 yds - NCST 3, MSST 21 0.23 97.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSST 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.54 - 0.31 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): 18 (18.31)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.54)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.3%

Win Probability (After): 97.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:15 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 25) Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27 - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.51 2.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.91 - -0.39 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.39)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.1%

Win Probability (After): 2.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:15 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 8 at NCST 27) Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCSt 24 - NCST 3, MSST 21 -1.53 2.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 76

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.44 - -0.91 = -1.53

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.91)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-20.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.1%

Win Probability (After): 1.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 11 at NCST 24) Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 6 yds to the NCSt 30 - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.16 1.4% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 70

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.58 - -2.41 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-20.41)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-20.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.4%

Win Probability (After): 1.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:53 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 5 at NCST 30) Trenton Gill punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 35 - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.69 1.4% 0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 65

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.24 - -2.54 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-20.54)

Score Difference (End): 18 (21.24)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.4%

Win Probability (After): 2.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:53 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 35) Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 26 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 21 1.04 98.2% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 39

Started Drive at: MSST 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 3.25 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): 18 (21.25)

Score Difference (End): 18 (22.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:53 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at NCST 39) Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 11 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 21 0.48 98.6% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 28

Started Drive at: MSST 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.78 - 4.29 = 0.48

Score Difference (Before): 18 (22.29)

Score Difference (End): 18 (22.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.6%

Win Probability (After): 98.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:53 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at NCST 28) Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the NCSt 28 - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.56 98.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 28

Started Drive at: MSST 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.21 - 4.78 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 18 (22.78)

Score Difference (End): 18 (22.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.7%

Win Probability (After): 98.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:53 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 10 at NCST 28) Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 14 yds to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 21 1.21 98.6% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 14

Started Drive at: MSST 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.43 - 4.21 = 1.21

Score Difference (Before): 18 (22.21)

Score Difference (End): 18 (23.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:53 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at NCST 14) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.56 99.0% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: MSST 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.86 - 5.43 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 18 (23.43)

Score Difference (End): 18 (22.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.0%

Win Probability (After): 98.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:53 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 10 at NCST 14) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk - NCST 3, MSST 21 -0.79 98.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: MSST 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.07 - 4.86 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): 18 (22.86)

Score Difference (End): 18 (22.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.8%

Win Probability (After): 98.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:53 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 10 at NCST 14) MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declined - NCST 3, MSST 21 0.00 98.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: MSST 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.07 - 4.07 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 18 (22.07)

Score Difference (End): 18 (22.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.5%

Win Probability (After): 98.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:53 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 10 at NCST 14) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Caleb Ducking - NCST 3, MSST 21 -1.26 98.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: MSST 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 4.07 = -1.26

Score Difference (Before): 18 (22.07)

Score Difference (End): 18 (20.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.5%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:30 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 10 at NCST 14) Nolan McCord 32 yd FG GOOD - NCST 3, MSST 24 0.24 98.9% 0.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSST 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.76 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.76)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 12:30 ESPN team id 152 (Kickoff at NCST 35) Scott Goodman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NCST 3, MSST 24 0.00 1.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.24 - -1.24 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-22.24)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-22.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 1.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:30 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 25) Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 5 yds to the NCSt 30 - NCST 3, MSST 24 0.03 1.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.21 - -1.24 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-22.24)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-22.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 1.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:30 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 5 at NCST 30) Devin Leary sacked by Jaden Crumedy for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 22 - NCST 3, MSST 24 -1.86 1.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 78

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.07 - -1.21 = -1.86

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-22.21)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-24.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:30 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 13 at NCST 22) Ben Finley pass incomplete to Devin Carter - NCST 3, MSST 24 -0.62 0.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.69 - -3.07 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-24.07)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-24.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:29 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 13 at NCST 22) Trenton Gill punt for 55 yds - NCST 3, MSST 24 -0.35 0.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 62

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.83 - -3.48 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-24.48)

Score Difference (End): 21 (24.83)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 11:29 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 38) Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 8 yds to the MisSt 46 - NCST 3, MSST 24 0.15 99.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 54

Started Drive at: MSST 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.91 - 3.76 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): 21 (24.76)

Score Difference (End): 21 (24.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:29 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 2 at MSST 46) Will Rogers run for 2 yds to the MisSt 44 - NCST 3, MSST 24 -0.95 99.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 56

Started Drive at: MSST 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.96 - 3.91 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): 21 (24.91)

Score Difference (End): 21 (23.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:29 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 4 at MSST 44) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Malik Heath - NCST 3, MSST 24 -1.65 99.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56

Started Drive at: MSST 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.31 - 2.96 = -1.65

Score Difference (Before): 21 (23.96)

Score Difference (End): 21 (22.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:59 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 4 at MSST 44) Tucker Day punt for 56 yds for a touchback - NCST 3, MSST 24 -0.03 99.7% -0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 80

Started Drive at: MSST 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 1.17 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): 21 (22.17)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-22.13)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:59 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 20) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Anthony Smith - NCST 3, MSST 24 -0.57 0.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80

Started Drive at: NCST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.29 - -0.72 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.72)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-22.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:59 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 10 at NCST 20) Devin Leary pass complete to Dylan Parham for 7 yds to the NCSt 27 - NCST 3, MSST 24 0.01 0.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 73

Started Drive at: NCST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.28 - -1.29 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-22.29)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-22.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:59 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 3 at NCST 27) Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for no gain to the NCSt 27 - NCST 3, MSST 24 -1.33 0.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: NCST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.62 - -1.28 = -1.33

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-22.28)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-23.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 3 at NCST 27) Timeout NC STATE, clock 08:33 - NCST 3, MSST 24 0.00 0.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: NCST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.62 - -2.62 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-23.62)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-23.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 3 at NCST 27) Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 37 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 24 5.04 0.5% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 36

Started Drive at: NCST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.45 - -2.59 = 5.04

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-23.59)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-18.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at MSST 36) Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 3 yds to the MisSt 33 - NCST 3, MSST 24 -0.27 1.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 33

Started Drive at: NCST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 2.45 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-18.55)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-18.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 7 at MSST 33) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter - NCST 3, MSST 24 -1.06 0.9% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33

Started Drive at: NCST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 2.18 = -1.06

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-18.82)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-19.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.9%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 7 at MSST 33) PENALTY NCS UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Ekwonu,Ikem) 15 yards from MSU33 to MSU48. NO PLAY. - NCST 3, MSST 24 -1.89 0.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 48

Started Drive at: NCST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.77 - 1.12 = -1.89

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-19.88)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-21.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 22 at MSST 48) Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 38 yds to the MisSt 10 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 24 5.29 0.5% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 10

Started Drive at: NCST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - -0.77 = 5.29

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.77)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-16.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 152 (1st & Goal at MSST 10) Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the MisSt 6 - NCST 3, MSST 24 0.04 1.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 6

Started Drive at: NCST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.56 - 4.52 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-16.48)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-16.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & Goal at MSST 6) Devin Leary run for no gain to the MisSt 6 - NCST 3, MSST 24 -1.05 1.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: NCST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.51 - 4.56 = -1.05

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-16.44)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-17.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & Goal at MSST 6) PENALTY NCS UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Pennix,Trent) 15 yards from MSU06 to MSU21. NO PLAY. - NCST 3, MSST 24 -2.00 1.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 21

Started Drive at: NCST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.51 - 3.51 = -2.00

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-17.49)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-19.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & Goal at MSST 21) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Christopher Toudle - NCST 3, MSST 24 -0.87 0.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: NCST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 1.51 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-19.49)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-20.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 6:13 ESPN team id 152 (4th & Goal at MSST 21) Devin Leary sacked by Emmanuel Forbes for a loss of 15 yards to the MisSt 36 - NCST 3, MSST 24 -3.93 0.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 64

Started Drive at: NCST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.08 - 0.85 = -3.93

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.15)

Score Difference (End): 21 (24.08)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 6:13 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 36) Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 37 - NCST 3, MSST 24 -0.64 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 63

Started Drive at: MSST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.37 - 3.01 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 21 (24.01)

Score Difference (End): 21 (23.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:13 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 9 at MSST 37) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley - NCST 3, MSST 24 -0.81 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: MSST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 2.37 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 21 (23.37)

Score Difference (End): 21 (22.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:13 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 9 at MSST 37) Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 3 yds to the MisSt 40 - NCST 3, MSST 24 -1.34 99.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 60

Started Drive at: MSST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.23 - 1.56 = -1.34

Score Difference (Before): 21 (22.56)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:30 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 9 at MSST 37) Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 04:30 - NCST 3, MSST 24 0.00 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 60

Started Drive at: MSST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.23 - 0.23 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 21 (21.23)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:30 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 6 at MSST 40) PENALTY MSU False Start (Lawrence,Dylan) 5 yards from MSU40 to MSU35. NO PLAY. - NCST 3, MSST 24 -0.27 99.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.14 - 0.14 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): 21 (21.14)

Score Difference (End): 21 (20.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:22 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 11 at MSST 35) Tucker Day punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 26 - NCST 3, MSST 24 -0.20 99.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 74

Started Drive at: MSST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - -0.20 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): 21 (20.80)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-20.60)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:22 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 26) Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 21 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 24 1.31 0.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 53

Started Drive at: NCST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.79 - 0.48 = 1.31

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.52)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-19.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 4:22 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 47) Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Houston for 3 yds to the 50 yard line - NCST 3, MSST 24 -0.31 0.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 50

Started Drive at: NCST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 1.79 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-19.21)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-19.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 4:22 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 7 at 50) Devin Leary run for 3 yds to the MisSt 47 - NCST 3, MSST 24 0.10 0.4% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 47

Started Drive at: NCST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.57 - 1.48 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-19.52)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-19.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 4:22 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 4 at MSST 47) Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 8 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 24 1.41 0.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 39

Started Drive at: NCST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.98 - 1.57 = 1.41

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-19.43)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-18.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 4:22 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at MSST 39) Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 37 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MSST 24 3.13 0.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 2

Started Drive at: NCST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.11 - 2.98 = 3.13

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-18.02)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-14.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 4:22 ESPN team id 152 (1st & Goal at MSST 2) Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the MisSt 4 - NCST 3, MSST 24 -0.69 0.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 4

Started Drive at: NCST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.42 - 6.11 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-14.89)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-15.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:15 ESPN team id 152 (1st & Goal at MSST 2) Timeout NC STATE, clock 01:15 - NCST 3, MSST 24 0.00 0.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 4

Started Drive at: NCST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.42 - 5.42 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-15.58)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-15.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:15 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & Goal at MSST 4) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas - NCST 3, MSST 24 -0.81 0.5% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: NCST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.32 - 5.13 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-15.87)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-16.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:06 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & Goal at MSST 4) Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 4 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) - NCST 10, MSST 24 2.66 0.5% 0.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: NCST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.34 = 2.66

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-16.66)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.9%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:06 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 35) Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 01:06 - NCST 3, MSST 24 0.00 1.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: NCST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 7.00 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.08)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 10 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 1:03 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) kickoff for 15 yds - NCST 3, MSST 24 0.75 99.9% -63.6%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 50

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.76 - 1.01 = 0.75

Score Difference (Before): 21 (22.01)

Score Difference (End): 21 (22.76)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 3, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 36.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 1:03 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at 50) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter - NCST 10, MSST 24 -0.09 0.3% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 1.24 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-19.76)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 1:03 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 10 at 50) Devin Leary sacked by Randy Charlton for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 46 - NCST 10, MSST 24 -0.67 1.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 54

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.48 - 1.14 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.86)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 1:03 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 14 at NCST 46) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr. - NCST 10, MSST 24 -0.54 1.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.48 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.52)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 0:17 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 14 at NCST 46) Devin Leary pass intercepted - NCST 10, MSST 24 -0.21 1.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 97

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.13 - 0.08 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.92)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.13)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 10, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 3) run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 1 - NCST 10, MSST 24 -0.10 98.3% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 97 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.12 - -0.02 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): 14 (13.98)

Score Difference (End): 14 (13.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MSST 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.3%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3