Mississippi St 45 @ Vanderbilt 6

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 0.47 | Odds: MSST -20.5, O/U 53.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 344 ESPN team id 238
Total Plays 9058
Total EPA 22.71-18.73
  Offensive EPA 24.51-15.47
  Special Teams EPA 3.77-0.82
  Penalty EPA -5.57-2.59
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 0.000.15
Production ESPN team id 344 ESPN team id 238
Scrimmage Plays 8441
  Yards 593173
  Yards/Play 7.064.22
  EPA 24.51-15.47
  EPA/Play 0.29-0.38
Passes 67 (80%)28 (68%)
  Yards 520146
  Yards/Play 7.765.21
  EPA 21.67-9.31
  EPA/Play 0.32-0.33
Rushes 17 (20%)13 (32%)
  Yards 7327
  Yards/Play 4.292.08
  EPA 2.83-6.16
  EPA/Play 0.17-0.47
Rushing ESPN team id 344 ESPN team id 238
Scrimmage Plays 8441
Rushes 17 (20%)13 (32%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 3 (18%)0 (0%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 3 (100%)0 (0%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 2 (12%)3 (23%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 6 (35%)9 (69%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 9 (53%)4 (31%)
OL Line Yards 44.322
  Per Carry 2.611.69
Highlight Yards 8.50
  Per Rush Opportunity 0.940.00
Explosiveness ESPN team id 344 ESPN team id 238
Total Plays 9058
Scrimmage Plays 8441
Explosive Plays 6 (7%)2 (5%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 6 (9%)2 (7%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 0 (0%)0 (0%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays 1.43-23.90
  EPA/Play 0.02-0.61
  When Passing -1.40-17.74
    EPA/Play -0.02-0.63
  When Rushing 2.83-6.16
    EPA/Play 0.17-0.47
Situational ESPN team id 344 ESPN team id 238
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 48 (57%)10 (24%)
  When Passing 37 (55%)8 (29%)
  When Rushing 11 (65%)2 (15%)
  On Standard Downs 29 (53%)9 (33%)
  On Passing Downs 19 (66%)1 (7%)
  On Early Downs 35 (52%)9 (30%)
  On Late Downs 13 (76%)1 (9%)
  During "Middle 8" 2 (33%)4 (40%)
Early Downs 6730
  First Downs Created 16 (24%)4 (13%)
  EPA 4.26-8.15
  EPA/Play 0.06-0.27
  Passes 53 (79%)20 (67%)
  Rushes 14 (21%)10 (33%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 27 (51%)7 (35%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 8 (57%)2 (20%)
"Middle 8" Plays 610
  EPA 1.10-1.98
  EPA/play 0.18-0.20
  Passes 5 (83%)6 (60%)
  Rushes 1 (17%)4 (40%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 2 (40%)2 (33%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 0 (0%)2 (50%)
Drives ESPN team id 344 ESPN team id 238
Total 1112
Avg Starting Field Position Own 30Own 29
Plays/Drive 9.354.34
Yards/Drive 53.7615.71
Available Yards % 77%22%
Defensive ESPN team id 344 ESPN team id 238
Scrimmage Plays 4184
Stop Rate 63%10%
Havoc Plays Created 5 (12%)6 (7%)
  Passing 5 (18%)5 (7%)
  Rushing 0 (0%)1 (6%)
TFLs Generated 44
  Passing 43
  Rushing 01
Sacks Generated 3 (11%)3 (4%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 12
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 344 ESPN team id 238
Turnovers 21
  Fumbles 00
  Fumbles Lost 00
  Fumbles Recovered 00
  Interceptions 21
Turnover Margin -11
Expected Turnovers 0.40.2
Expected Turnover Margin -0.20.2
Turnover Luck (pts) -3.93.9
Special Teams ESPN team id 344 ESPN team id 238
Total Plays 6 17
Total EPA 3.77 -0.82
  Field Goal EPA 0.57 2.72
  Punting EPA -0.74 -3.44
  Kickoff Return EPA 3.94 -0.09

Mississippi State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Will Rogers 42/57, 443 yds, 5 TD, 2 INT, 3 Scks, 62.3 xQBR 7.38 0.27 15.91 53% 6.0%
Chance Lovertich 5/6, 77 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 83.6 xQBR 12.83 1.11 6.68 83% 0.0%
Jaden Walley 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 16.0 xQBR 0.00 -0.92 -0.92 0% 0.0%
Rush attempts
Jo'quavious Marks 7 carries, 29 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.14 0.53 3.70 86% 2.0%
Chance Lovertich 1 carry, 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.59 0.59 100% 0.0%
Dillon Johnson 7 carries, 34 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.86 -0.05 -0.36 57% 0.0%
Will Rogers 2 carries, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.50 -0.55 -1.09 0% 0.0%
Pass targets
Caleb Ducking 4 catches (4 targets), 99 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 24.75 1.94 7.75 100% 0.0%
Rara Thomas 5 catches (5 targets), 52 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.40 1.32 6.58 60% 0.0%
Makai Polk 5 catches (5 targets), 63 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.60 1.29 6.43 80% 6.0%
Jaden Walley 5 catches (5 targets), 72 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.40 1.05 5.24 100% 3.0%
Christian Ford 5 catches (5 targets), 63 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.60 1.02 5.08 80% 0.0%
Malik Heath 3 catches (3 targets), 26 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.67 1.43 4.28 100% 1.0%
Rufus Harvey 2 catches (2 targets), 17 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.50 1.79 3.57 100% 0.0%
Austin Williams 3 catches (3 targets), 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 1.05 3.15 100% 1.0%
Jo'quavious Marks 4 catches (4 targets), 48 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.00 0.58 2.32 100% 1.0%
Lideatrick Griffin 4 catches (4 targets), 22 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.50 0.35 1.39 75% 0.0%
Dillon Johnson 5 catches (5 targets), 21 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.20 0.04 0.22 40% 0.0%
J.J. Jernighan 1 catch (1 target), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.49 -0.49 0% 0.0%
Jamire Calvin 1 catch (1 target), 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.82 -0.82 0% 0.0%

Vanderbilt [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Jeremy Moussa 5/8, 24 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 48.0 xQBR 3.00 -0.16 -1.29 50% 0.0%
Mike Wright 12/17, 122 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 3 Scks, 21.0 xQBR 6.10 -0.40 -8.02 20% -5.0%
Rush attempts
Patrick Smith 1 carry, 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.53 -0.53 0% 0.0%
Mike Wright 6 carries, 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.67 -0.25 -1.49 33% 0.0%
Rocko Griffin 6 carries, 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.50 -0.69 -4.13 0% -1.0%
Pass targets
Chris Pierce Jr. 2 catches (2 targets), 35 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 17.50 2.15 4.30 100% 0.0%
Devin Boddie Jr. 4 catches (4 targets), 69 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 17.25 0.86 3.44 50% 1.0%
Ben Bresnahan 1 catch (1 target), 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 0.81 0.81 100% 0.0%
Gavin Schoenwald 1 catch (1 target), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.27 0.27 100% 0.0%
Logan Kyle 1 catch (1 target), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.05 0.05 100% 0.0%
Amir Abdur-Rahman 1 catch (1 target), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 0.01 0.01 100% 0.0%
Will Sheppard 1 catch (1 target), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.11 -0.11 0% 0.0%
Patrick Smith 2 catches (2 targets), 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.24 -0.47 0% 0.0%
Cam Johnson 2 catches (2 targets), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.50 -0.27 -0.54 0% 0.0%
Rocko Griffin 2 catches (2 targets), -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -0.50 -1.28 -2.56 0% 0.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 12:39 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at MSST 35) Mike Wright pass intercepted return for no gain to the MisSt 40 - MSST 10, VAN 3 -6.15 9.3% -4.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 60

Started Drive at: MSST 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.96 - 3.18 = -6.15

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.82)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.96)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.3%

Win Probability (After): 4.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:54 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 6 at MSST 41) Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 59 yds for a TD - MSST 44, VAN 6 5.75 100.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.92 - 1.17 = 5.75

Score Difference (Before): 32 (33.17)

Score Difference (End): 38 (38.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 44, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (44) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:51 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 15 at VAN 28) Chance Lovertich pass complete to Rara Thomas for 28 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - MSST 45, VAN 6 4.90 100.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.10 = 4.90

Score Difference (Before): 32 (34.10)

Score Difference (End): 39 (39.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 45, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (45) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:50 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 13 at MSST 29) Will Rogers pass intercepted return for no gain to the MisSt 35 - MSST 10, VAN 3 -4.65 94.9% -2.7%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 35

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.15 - 1.50 = -4.65

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.50)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.85)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.9%

Win Probability (After): 92.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:48 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at VAN 25) Mike Wright pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 61 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST down - MSST 10, VAN 0 4.56 4.8% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 14

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.67 - 0.11 = 4.56

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.89)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.8%

Win Probability (After): 6.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:52 ESPN team id 238 (3rd & 10 at MSST 48) Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 24 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST down - MSST 24, VAN 3 3.87 1.0% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 24

Started Drive at: MSST 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - -0.46 = 3.87

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.46)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-17.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.4%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:01 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 11 at VAN 31) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 31 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - MSST 17, VAN 3 3.55 94.8% 2.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.45 = 3.55

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.45)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 17, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:00 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & Goal at VAN 6) Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - MSST 24, VAN 3 3.17 98.6% 0.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.83 = 3.17

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.83)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.6%

Win Probability (After): 98.8%

Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 8:29 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 11 at VAN 40) Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 20 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST down - MSST 24, VAN 6 2.93 99.1% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 20

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.13 - 2.20 = 2.93

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.20)

Score Difference (End): 18 (23.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:52 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & Goal at VAN 9) Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - MSST 31, VAN 6 2.78 99.1% 0.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.22 = 2.78

Score Difference (Before): 18 (22.22)

Score Difference (End): 25 (25.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 31, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 12:39 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at MSST 35) Mike Wright pass intercepted return for no gain to the MisSt 40 - MSST 10, VAN 3 -6.15 9.3% -4.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 60

Started Drive at: MSST 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.96 - 3.18 = -6.15

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.82)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.96)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.3%

Win Probability (After): 4.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:01 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 11 at VAN 31) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 31 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - MSST 17, VAN 3 3.55 94.8% 2.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.45 = 3.55

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.45)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 17, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:18 ESPN team id 344 (1st & Goal at VAN 9) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - MSST 7, VAN 0 1.70 94.2% 2.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.30 = 1.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.30)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.9%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:50 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 13 at MSST 29) Will Rogers pass intercepted return for no gain to the MisSt 35 - MSST 10, VAN 3 -4.65 94.9% -2.7%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 35

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.15 - 1.50 = -4.65

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.50)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.85)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.9%

Win Probability (After): 92.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:48 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at VAN 25) Mike Wright pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 61 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST down - MSST 10, VAN 0 4.56 4.8% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 14

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.67 - 0.11 = 4.56

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.89)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.8%

Win Probability (After): 6.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:55 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 2 at VAN 28) Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 19 yds to the Vandy 9 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, VAN 0 0.57 94.0% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 9

Started Drive at: MSST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.91 - 4.34 = 0.57

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.0%

Win Probability (After): 95.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:55 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 32) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 21 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, VAN 0 1.40 92.5% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 47

Started Drive at: MSST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.04 - 1.64 = 1.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.5%

Win Probability (After): 93.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:55 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) Pierson Cooke kickoff for 65 yds , Lideatrick Griffin return for 21 yds to the MisSt 21 - MSST 0, VAN 0 1.40 89.7% 1.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 79

Started Drive at: MSST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.34 - 0.94 = 1.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.94)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.7%

Win Probability (After): 90.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 238 (3rd & 5 at MSST 9) Mike Wright pass incomplete - MSST 10, VAN 0 -1.09 6.5% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.67 - 3.76 = -1.09

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.24)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.5%

Win Probability (After): 5.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:46 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 1 at VAN 33) Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST down - MSST 10, VAN 3 1.33 94.5% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 30

Started Drive at: MSST 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 3.16 = 1.33

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.16)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.5%

Win Probability (After): 95.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 11:18 ESPN team id 344 (1st & Goal at VAN 9) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - MSST 7, VAN 0 1.70 94.2% 2.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.30 = 1.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.30)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.9%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:48 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 15 at VAN 18) Brandon Ruiz 36 yd FG GOOD - MSST 10, VAN 0 0.57 96.2% 0.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.43 = 0.57

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.43)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.9%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:55 ESPN team id 238 (4th & 5 at MSST 9) Joseph Bulovas 27 yd FG GOOD - MSST 10, VAN 3 0.37 5.2% 0.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 65

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.63 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.37)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.2%

Win Probability (After): 6.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:01 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 11 at VAN 31) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 31 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - MSST 17, VAN 3 3.55 94.8% 2.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.45 = 3.55

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.45)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 17, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:00 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & Goal at VAN 6) Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - MSST 24, VAN 3 3.17 98.6% 0.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.83 = 3.17

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.83)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.6%

Win Probability (After): 98.8%

Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 8:37 ESPN team id 238 (4th & 9 at MSST 23) Joseph Bulovas 41 yd FG GOOD - MSST 24, VAN 6 2.35 0.9% 0.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSST 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.65 = 2.35

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.35)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.9%

Win Probability (After): 1.4%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:52 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & Goal at VAN 9) Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - MSST 31, VAN 6 2.78 99.1% 0.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.22 = 2.78

Score Difference (Before): 18 (22.22)

Score Difference (End): 25 (25.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 31, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:38 ESPN team id 344 (1st & Goal at VAN 5) Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - MSST 38, VAN 6 0.95 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.05 = 0.95

Score Difference (Before): 25 (31.05)

Score Difference (End): 32 (32.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 31 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:54 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 6 at MSST 41) Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 59 yds for a TD - MSST 44, VAN 6 5.75 100.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.92 - 1.17 = 5.75

Score Difference (Before): 32 (33.17)

Score Difference (End): 38 (38.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 44, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (44) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:51 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 15 at VAN 28) Chance Lovertich pass complete to Rara Thomas for 28 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - MSST 45, VAN 6 4.90 100.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.10 = 4.90

Score Difference (Before): 32 (34.10)

Score Difference (End): 39 (39.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 45, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (45) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 14:55 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) Pierson Cooke kickoff for 65 yds , Lideatrick Griffin return for 21 yds to the MisSt 21 - MSST 0, VAN 0 1.40 89.7% 1.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 79

Started Drive at: MSST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.34 - 0.94 = 1.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.94)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.7%

Win Probability (After): 90.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:55 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 21) Will Rogers run for 2 yds to the MisSt 23 - MSST 0, VAN 0 -0.60 92.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 77

Started Drive at: MSST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.11 - 0.71 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.71)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.1%

Win Probability (After): 91.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:55 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 8 at MSST 23) Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 7 yds to the MisSt 30 - MSST 0, VAN 0 0.79 91.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 70

Started Drive at: MSST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - 0.11 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.8%

Win Probability (After): 92.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:55 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 1 at MSST 30) Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, VAN 0 0.73 92.0% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 68

Started Drive at: MSST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - 0.91 = 0.73

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.91)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.0%

Win Probability (After): 92.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:55 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 32) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 21 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, VAN 0 1.40 92.5% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 47

Started Drive at: MSST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.04 - 1.64 = 1.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.5%

Win Probability (After): 93.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:55 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at VAN 47) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 11 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, VAN 0 0.62 93.6% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 36

Started Drive at: MSST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.66 - 3.04 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.04)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.6%

Win Probability (After): 94.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:55 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at VAN 36) Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds to the Vandy 28 - MSST 0, VAN 0 0.68 94.0% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 28

Started Drive at: MSST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 3.66 = 0.68

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.66)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.0%

Win Probability (After): 94.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:55 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 2 at VAN 28) Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 19 yds to the Vandy 9 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, VAN 0 0.57 94.0% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 9

Started Drive at: MSST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.91 - 4.34 = 0.57

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.0%

Win Probability (After): 95.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:18 ESPN team id 344 (1st & Goal at VAN 9) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - MSST 7, VAN 0 1.70 94.2% 2.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.30 = 1.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.30)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.9%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:18 ESPN team id 238 (Kickoff at VAN 35) Scott Goodman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MSST 7, VAN 0 0.00 3.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.20 - -0.20 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.20)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.1%

Win Probability (After): 3.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:18 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at VAN 25) Mike Wright run for 4 yds to the Vandy 29 - MSST 7, VAN 0 -0.05 3.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.25 - -0.20 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.20)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.1%

Win Probability (After): 3.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:18 ESPN team id 238 (2nd & 6 at VAN 29) Mike Wright pass complete to Rocko Griffin for 3 yds to the Vandy 32 - MSST 7, VAN 0 -0.20 3.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 68

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.45 - -0.25 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.25)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.0%

Win Probability (After): 2.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:18 ESPN team id 238 (3rd & 3 at VAN 32) Mike Wright pass complete to Rocko Griffin for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 28 - MSST 7, VAN 0 -2.36 2.9% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 72

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.81 - -0.45 = -2.36

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.45)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.9%

Win Probability (After): 2.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:18 ESPN team id 238 (4th & 7 at VAN 28) Harrison Smith punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 27 - MSST 7, VAN 0 0.20 3.0% 0.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 73

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.39 - -2.59 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.59)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.39)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.0%

Win Probability (After): 3.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 9:18 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 27) Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds to the MisSt 33 - MSST 7, VAN 0 0.03 96.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 67

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 2.40 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.40)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.1%

Win Probability (After): 96.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:18 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 4 at MSST 33) Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, VAN 0 0.46 96.1% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 63

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.89 - 2.43 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.43)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.1%

Win Probability (After): 96.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:18 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 37) Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 1 yd to the MisSt 38 - MSST 7, VAN 0 -0.46 96.4% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 62

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 2.89 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.89)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.4%

Win Probability (After): 96.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:18 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 9 at MSST 38) MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jett Johnson) to the MisSt 37 - MSST 7, VAN 0 -1.02 96.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 63

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.41 - 2.43 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.43)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.4%

Win Probability (After): 96.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:18 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 10 at MSST 37) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 12 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, VAN 0 1.13 96.3% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 51

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.48 - 2.34 = 1.13

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.3%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:18 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 49) Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 7 yds to the Vandy 44 - MSST 7, VAN 0 0.38 96.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 44

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.85 - 3.48 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.48)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:18 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 3 at VAN 44) Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 14 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, VAN 0 0.71 96.7% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 30

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.57 - 3.85 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.85)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:18 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at VAN 30) Will Rogers sacked by Brayden DeVault-Smith for 0 yards to the Vandy 41 - MSST 7, VAN 0 -1.79 96.9% -0.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 41

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.78 - 4.57 = -1.79

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.57)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.9%

Win Probability (After): 96.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:18 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 21 at VAN 41) Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 14 yds to the Vandy 27 - MSST 7, VAN 0 0.66 96.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 27

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 2.78 = 0.66

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.78)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.6%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:18 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 7 at VAN 27) Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 14 yds to the Vandy 13 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, VAN 0 1.88 96.7% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 13

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.33 - 3.44 = 1.88

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.44)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 97.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:18 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at VAN 13) Will Rogers sacked by Daevion Davis for 0 yards to the Vandy 23 - MSST 7, VAN 0 -1.69 97.2% -0.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 23

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.64 - 5.33 = -1.69

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.33)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:18 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 20 at VAN 23) Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 5 yds to the Vandy 18 - MSST 7, VAN 0 -0.45 96.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 18

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 3.64 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.64)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.8%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:18 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 15 at VAN 18) Will Rogers pass incomplete - MSST 7, VAN 0 -0.80 96.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 3.19 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.19)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:48 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 15 at VAN 18) Brandon Ruiz 36 yd FG GOOD - MSST 10, VAN 0 0.57 96.2% 0.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.43 = 0.57

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.43)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.9%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 1:48 ESPN team id 238 (Kickoff at VAN 35) Scott Goodman kickoff for 57 yds - MSST 10, VAN 0 0.00 4.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.11 - 0.11 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.89)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.8%

Win Probability (After): 4.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:48 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at VAN 25) Mike Wright pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 61 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST down - MSST 10, VAN 0 4.56 4.8% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 14

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.67 - 0.11 = 4.56

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.89)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.8%

Win Probability (After): 6.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:48 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at MSST 14) Rocko Griffin run for 1 yd to the MisSt 13 - MSST 10, VAN 0 -0.53 6.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 13

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.14 - 4.67 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.33)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.1%

Win Probability (After): 6.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:48 ESPN team id 238 (2nd & 9 at MSST 13) Rocko Griffin run for 4 yds to the MisSt 9 - MSST 10, VAN 0 -0.29 6.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 9

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.85 - 4.14 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.86)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.0%

Win Probability (After): 5.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 238 (3rd & 5 at MSST 9) Mike Wright pass incomplete - MSST 10, VAN 0 -1.09 6.5% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.67 - 3.76 = -1.09

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.24)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.5%

Win Probability (After): 5.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:55 ESPN team id 238 (4th & 5 at MSST 9) Joseph Bulovas 27 yd FG GOOD - MSST 10, VAN 3 0.37 5.2% 0.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 65

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.63 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.37)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.2%

Win Probability (After): 6.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:49 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) Pierson Cooke kickoff for 65 yds , Lideatrick Griffin return for 20 yds to the MisSt 20 - MSST 10, VAN 3 1.10 95.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.30 - 2.19 = 1.10

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.19)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.1%

Win Probability (After): 95.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:49 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 20) Jo'quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the MisSt 29 - MSST 10, VAN 3 0.75 94.9% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 71

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.73 - 1.99 = 0.75

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.99)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.9%

Win Probability (After): 95.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:49 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 1 at MSST 29) Will Rogers pass incomplete - MSST 10, VAN 3 -0.83 95.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.91 - 2.73 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.73)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.1%

Win Probability (After): 94.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:49 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 1 at MSST 29) MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 24 - MSST 10, VAN 3 -1.14 94.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 76

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.76 - 1.91 = -1.14

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.91)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.7%

Win Probability (After): 94.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:49 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 6 at MSST 24) Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 8 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down - MSST 10, VAN 3 1.85 94.5% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 68

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.61 - 0.76 = 1.85

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.76)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.5%

Win Probability (After): 95.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:49 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 32) Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the MisSt 39 - MSST 10, VAN 3 0.39 95.2% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 61

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.61 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.61)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.2%

Win Probability (After): 95.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:49 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 3 at MSST 39) ROGERS, Will pass to the right incomplete intended for CALVIN, Jamire thrown to the MSU45. PENALTY MSU Holding on JONES, Kameron enforced 10 yards from the MSU39 to the MSU29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - MSST 10, VAN 3 -1.40 95.6% -0.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 71

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 3.00 = -1.40

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.00)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.6%

Win Probability (After): 94.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:50 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 13 at MSST 29) Will Rogers pass intercepted return for no gain to the MisSt 35 - MSST 10, VAN 3 -4.65 94.9% -2.7%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 35

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.15 - 1.50 = -4.65

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.50)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.85)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.9%

Win Probability (After): 92.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:39 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at MSST 35) Mike Wright pass intercepted return for no gain to the MisSt 40 - MSST 10, VAN 3 -6.15 9.3% -4.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 60

Started Drive at: MSST 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.96 - 3.18 = -6.15

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.82)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.96)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.3%

Win Probability (After): 4.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:39 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 40) Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 3 yds to the MisSt 43 - MSST 10, VAN 3 -0.38 94.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 57

Started Drive at: MSST 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.64 - 3.02 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.02)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.9%

Win Probability (After): 94.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:39 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 7 at MSST 43) Jaden Walley pass incomplete - MSST 10, VAN 3 -0.92 94.9% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: MSST 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.73 - 2.64 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.64)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.9%

Win Probability (After): 94.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:52 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 7 at MSST 43) Will Rogers pass incomplete - MSST 10, VAN 3 -1.62 94.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: MSST 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - 1.84 = -1.62

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.84)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.3%

Win Probability (After): 93.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:46 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at VAN 42) MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jamire Calvin) to the Vandy 48 - MSST 10, VAN 3 -1.21 95.4% -0.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 48

Started Drive at: MSST 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.62 - 3.83 = -1.21

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.83)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.4%

Win Probability (After): 94.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:46 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 16 at VAN 48) Will Rogers pass incomplete - MSST 10, VAN 3 -0.68 94.9% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48

Started Drive at: MSST 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.51 - 3.19 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.19)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.9%

Win Probability (After): 94.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:46 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 16 at VAN 48) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the Vandy 39 - MSST 10, VAN 3 0.16 94.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 39

Started Drive at: MSST 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.67 - 2.51 = 0.16

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.51)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.5%

Win Probability (After): 94.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:46 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 7 at VAN 39) Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 6 yds to the Vandy 33 - MSST 10, VAN 3 0.50 94.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 33

Started Drive at: MSST 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.16 - 2.67 = 0.50

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.67)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.5%

Win Probability (After): 94.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:46 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 1 at VAN 33) Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST down - MSST 10, VAN 3 1.33 94.5% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 30

Started Drive at: MSST 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 3.16 = 1.33

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.16)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.5%

Win Probability (After): 95.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:46 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at VAN 30) Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 31 - MSST 10, VAN 3 -0.91 95.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 31

Started Drive at: MSST 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.58 - 4.49 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.49)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 10, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.5%

Win Probability (After): 95.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:01 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 11 at VAN 31) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 31 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - MSST 17, VAN 3 3.55 94.8% 2.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.45 = 3.55

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.45)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 17, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:01 ESPN team id 238 (Kickoff at VAN 35) Scott Goodman kickoff for 64 yds - MSST 17, VAN 3 0.00 2.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - -0.10 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.10)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 17, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.3%

Win Probability (After): 2.3%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:22 ESPN team id 238 (2nd & 8 at VAN 27) Timeout VANDERBILT, clock 08:22 - MSST 17, VAN 3 0.00 2.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - -0.10 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.10)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 17, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.1%

Win Probability (After): 2.1%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:22 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at VAN 25) Rocko Griffin run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27 - MSST 17, VAN 3 -0.45 2.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.69 - -0.24 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.24)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 17, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.0%

Win Probability (After): 2.0%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:22 ESPN team id 238 (2nd & 8 at VAN 27) Mike Wright sacked by Randy Charlton for 0 yards to the Vandy 25 - MSST 17, VAN 3 -0.85 2.0% -0.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 75

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.55 - -0.69 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.69)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 17, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.8%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:22 ESPN team id 238 (3rd & 10 at VAN 25) VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 20 - MSST 17, VAN 3 -0.64 1.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 80

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.18 - -1.55 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.55)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-16.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 17, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.8%

Win Probability (After): 1.7%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:22 ESPN team id 238 (3rd & 15 at VAN 20) Mike Wright run for no gain to the Vandy 20 VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declined - MSST 17, VAN 3 -0.62 1.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.80 - -2.18 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-16.18)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-16.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 17, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.7%

Win Probability (After): 1.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:05 ESPN team id 238 (4th & 15 at VAN 20) Harrison Smith punt for 30 yds - MSST 17, VAN 3 -0.39 2.0% -0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 50

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.03 - -2.63 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-16.63)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.03)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 17, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.7%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 7:05 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at 50) Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 1 yd to the Vandy 49 - MSST 17, VAN 3 -0.34 98.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 49

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.34 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.34)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 17, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:05 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 9 at VAN 49) Will Rogers pass complete to J.J. Jernighan for 4 yds to the Vandy 45 - MSST 17, VAN 3 -0.49 98.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 45

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.50 - 3.00 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.00)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 17, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:05 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 5 at VAN 45) Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST down - MSST 17, VAN 3 1.49 98.2% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 39

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.99 - 2.50 = 1.49

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.50)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 17, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.3%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:05 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at VAN 39) Will Rogers run for 1 yd to the Vandy 38 - MSST 17, VAN 3 -0.49 98.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 38

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.50 - 3.99 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.99)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 17, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.3%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:05 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 9 at VAN 38) Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds to the Vandy 30 - MSST 17, VAN 3 0.58 98.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 30

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 3.50 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.50)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 17, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:05 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 1 at VAN 30) Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 7 yds to the Vandy 23 for a 1ST down - MSST 17, VAN 3 0.56 98.2% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 23

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.64 - 4.08 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.08)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 17, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:05 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 10 at VAN 23) Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 17 yds to the Vandy 6 for a 1ST down - MSST 17, VAN 3 1.44 98.3% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 6

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.55 - 4.11 = 1.44

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.11)

Score Difference (End): 14 (19.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 17, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.3%

Win Probability (After): 98.7%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:05 ESPN team id 344 (1st & Goal at VAN 6) Will Rogers pass incomplete - MSST 17, VAN 3 -0.63 98.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.14 - 5.77 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 14 (19.77)

Score Difference (End): 14 (19.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 17, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.7%

Win Probability (After): 98.7%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:05 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & Goal at VAN 6) Will Rogers pass incomplete - MSST 17, VAN 3 -0.95 98.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.19 - 5.14 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): 14 (19.14)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 17, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.7%

Win Probability (After): 98.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:00 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & Goal at VAN 6) Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 6 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - MSST 24, VAN 3 3.17 98.6% 0.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.83 = 3.17

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.83)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.6%

Win Probability (After): 98.8%

Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:00 ESPN team id 238 (Kickoff at VAN 35) Scott Goodman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MSST 24, VAN 3 0.00 1.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.81 - 0.81 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.19)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-20.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:00 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at VAN 25) Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 11 yds to the Vandy 36 for a 1ST down - MSST 24, VAN 3 0.43 1.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 64

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.24 - 0.81 = 0.43

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.19)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-19.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.4%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:00 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at VAN 36) Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 4 yds to the Vandy 40 - MSST 24, VAN 3 -0.06 1.4% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 60

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.18 - 1.24 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-19.76)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-19.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.4%

Win Probability (After): 1.4%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:00 ESPN team id 238 (2nd & 6 at VAN 40) Mike Wright pass complete to Patrick Smith for 1 yd to the Vandy 41 - MSST 24, VAN 3 -0.32 1.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 59

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.87 - 1.18 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-19.82)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-20.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.4%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:00 ESPN team id 238 (3rd & 5 at VAN 41) Mike Wright run for 1 yd to the Vandy 42 - MSST 24, VAN 3 -1.00 1.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 58

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.13 - 0.87 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.13)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-21.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:00 ESPN team id 238 (4th & 4 at VAN 42) VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 37 - MSST 24, VAN 3 -0.44 1.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 63

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.57 - -0.13 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.13)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-21.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.1%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:46 ESPN team id 238 (4th & 9 at VAN 37) Harrison Smith punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 15 - MSST 24, VAN 3 -1.17 1.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 85

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.44 - -0.27 = -1.17

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.27)

Score Difference (End): 21 (22.44)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:38 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 1 at MSST 24) Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 00:38 - MSST 24, VAN 3 0.00 98.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76

Started Drive at: MSST 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 0.64 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 21 (21.64)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.9%

Win Probability (After): 98.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:38 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 15) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the MisSt 24 - MSST 24, VAN 3 0.26 98.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 76

Started Drive at: MSST 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 0.38 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): 21 (21.38)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.9%

Win Probability (After): 98.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:38 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 1 at MSST 24) Will Rogers pass incomplete - MSST 24, VAN 3 -0.19 98.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76

Started Drive at: MSST 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - 0.64 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): 21 (21.64)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.9%

Win Probability (After): 98.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:38 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 1 at MSST 24) Will Rogers pass incomplete - MSST 24, VAN 3 -0.52 98.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76

Started Drive at: MSST 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.45 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 21 (21.45)

Score Difference (End): 21 (20.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.8%

Win Probability (After): 98.7%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:11 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 1 at MSST 24) Tucker Day punt for 56 yds , Cam Johnson returns for 24 yds to the Vandy 44 - MSST 24, VAN 3 -0.79 98.8% -0.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 56

Started Drive at: MSST 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.78 - 0.01 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): 21 (21.01)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-20.22)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.8%

Win Probability (After): 98.5%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at VAN 44) Mike Wright sacked by Aaron Odom for 0 yards to the Vandy 34 - MSST 24, VAN 3 -0.15 1.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 66

Started Drive at: VAN 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 0.15 = -0.15

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.85)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-20.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.4%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 238 (Kickoff at VAN 35) Scott Goodman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MSST 24, VAN 3 0.00 1.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.36 - -1.36 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-22.36)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-22.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at VAN 25) Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the Vandy 30 - MSST 24, VAN 3 0.10 1.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.26 - -1.36 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-22.36)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-22.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 238 (2nd & 5 at VAN 30) Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST down - MSST 24, VAN 3 0.88 1.2% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 65

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.39 - -1.26 = 0.88

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-22.26)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-21.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at VAN 35) Mike Wright pass complete to Ben Bresnahan for 8 yds to the Vandy 43 - MSST 24, VAN 3 0.81 1.2% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 57

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - -0.39 = 0.81

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.39)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-20.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.5%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 238 (2nd & 2 at VAN 43) Mike Wright pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for no gain to the Vandy 43 - MSST 24, VAN 3 -0.91 1.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.48 - 0.43 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.57)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-21.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.5%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 238 (3rd & 2 at VAN 43) Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the Vandy 43 - MSST 24, VAN 3 -1.77 1.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.25 - -0.48 = -1.77

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.48)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-23.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:32 ESPN team id 238 (4th & 2 at VAN 43) Harrison Smith punt for 50 yds, downed at the MisSt 7 - MSST 24, VAN 3 -0.55 1.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 93

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.56 - -2.01 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-23.01)

Score Difference (End): 21 (23.56)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 11:32 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 7) Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 9 - MSST 24, VAN 3 -0.59 99.4% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 91

Started Drive at: MSST 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 2.41 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 21 (23.41)

Score Difference (End): 21 (22.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:32 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 8 at MSST 9) Will Rogers pass incomplete - MSST 24, VAN 3 -1.03 99.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 91

Started Drive at: MSST 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - 1.82 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): 21 (22.82)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:52 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 8 at MSST 9) Will Rogers pass intercepted return for no gain to the MisSt 48 - MSST 24, VAN 3 -2.08 99.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 48

Started Drive at: MSST 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.28 - 0.80 = -2.08

Score Difference (Before): 21 (21.80)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-19.72)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 98.7%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:52 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at MSST 48) Mike Wright pass incomplete - MSST 24, VAN 3 -0.75 1.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48

Started Drive at: MSST 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.61 - 1.36 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-19.64)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-20.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 1.1%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:52 ESPN team id 238 (2nd & 10 at MSST 48) Mike Wright pass incomplete - MSST 24, VAN 3 -1.07 1.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48

Started Drive at: MSST 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.46 - 0.61 = -1.07

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.39)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-21.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:52 ESPN team id 238 (3rd & 10 at MSST 48) Mike Wright pass complete to Chris Pierce Jr. for 24 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST down - MSST 24, VAN 3 3.87 1.0% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 24

Started Drive at: MSST 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - -0.46 = 3.87

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.46)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-17.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.4%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:52 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at MSST 24) Rocko Griffin run for no gain to the MisSt 24 - MSST 24, VAN 3 -0.69 1.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: MSST 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.73 - 3.41 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-17.59)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-18.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.4%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:52 ESPN team id 238 (2nd & 10 at MSST 24) Mike Wright run for 1 yd to the MisSt 23 - MSST 24, VAN 3 -0.80 1.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 23

Started Drive at: MSST 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.92 - 2.73 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-18.27)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-19.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.1%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:52 ESPN team id 238 (3rd & 9 at MSST 23) Mike Wright pass incomplete - MSST 24, VAN 3 -1.09 1.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: MSST 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - 1.92 = -1.09

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-19.08)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-20.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:37 ESPN team id 238 (4th & 9 at MSST 23) Joseph Bulovas 41 yd FG GOOD - MSST 24, VAN 6 2.35 0.9% 0.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSST 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.65 = 2.35

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.35)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.9%

Win Probability (After): 1.4%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 3 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 8:29 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) Pierson Cooke kickoff for 63 yds , Lideatrick Griffin return for 35 yds to the MisSt 37 - MSST 24, VAN 6 1.43 99.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 63

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.96 - 2.52 = 1.43

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.52)

Score Difference (End): 18 (21.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:29 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 37) Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the MisSt 37 - MSST 24, VAN 6 -0.56 99.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 3.13 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 18 (21.13)

Score Difference (End): 18 (20.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:29 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 10 at MSST 37) Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 24 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST down - MSST 24, VAN 6 1.72 99.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 39

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 2.58 = 1.72

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.58)

Score Difference (End): 18 (22.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:29 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at VAN 39) Will Rogers sacked by Jaylen Mahoney for 0 yards to the Vandy 43 - MSST 24, VAN 6 -1.28 99.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 43

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.02 - 4.29 = -1.28

Score Difference (Before): 18 (22.29)

Score Difference (End): 18 (21.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:29 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 14 at VAN 43) Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 3 yds to the Vandy 40 - MSST 24, VAN 6 -0.82 99.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 40

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.20 - 3.02 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): 18 (21.02)

Score Difference (End): 18 (20.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:29 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 11 at VAN 40) Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 20 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST down - MSST 24, VAN 6 2.93 99.1% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 20

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.13 - 2.20 = 2.93

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.20)

Score Difference (End): 18 (23.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:29 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at VAN 20) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for no gain to the Vandy 20 - MSST 24, VAN 6 -0.58 99.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.55 - 5.13 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 18 (23.13)

Score Difference (End): 18 (22.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:29 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 10 at VAN 20) Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 11 yds to the Vandy 9 for a 1ST down - MSST 24, VAN 6 1.01 99.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 9

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.56 - 4.55 = 1.01

Score Difference (Before): 18 (22.55)

Score Difference (End): 18 (23.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:29 ESPN team id 344 (1st & Goal at VAN 9) Will Rogers pass incomplete - MSST 24, VAN 6 -0.63 99.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.01 - 5.65 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 18 (23.65)

Score Difference (End): 18 (23.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:29 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & Goal at VAN 9) Will Rogers pass incomplete - MSST 24, VAN 6 -0.90 99.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.11 - 5.01 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): 18 (23.01)

Score Difference (End): 18 (22.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 24, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:52 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & Goal at VAN 9) Will Rogers pass complete to Malik Heath for 9 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - MSST 31, VAN 6 2.78 99.1% 0.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.22 = 2.78

Score Difference (Before): 18 (22.22)

Score Difference (End): 25 (25.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 31, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:47 ESPN team id 238 (Kickoff at VAN 35) Scott Goodman kickoff for 61 yds , Rocko Griffin return for 18 yds to the Vandy 22 - MSST 31, VAN 6 -0.06 0.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 78

Started Drive at: VAN 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.93 - -0.87 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -25 (-25.87)

Score Difference (End): -25 (-25.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 31, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:47 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at VAN 22) Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the Vandy 24 - MSST 31, VAN 6 -0.53 0.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 76

Started Drive at: VAN 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.47 - -0.93 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -25 (-25.93)

Score Difference (End): -25 (-26.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 31, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:47 ESPN team id 238 (2nd & 8 at VAN 24) Mike Wright pass complete to Will Sheppard for 4 yds to the Vandy 28 - MSST 31, VAN 6 -0.11 0.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 72

Started Drive at: VAN 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.58 - -1.47 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): -25 (-26.47)

Score Difference (End): -25 (-26.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 31, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:47 ESPN team id 238 (3rd & 4 at VAN 28) Mike Wright sacked by Tyrus Wheat for 0 yards to the Vandy 19 - MSST 31, VAN 6 -1.97 0.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 81

Started Drive at: VAN 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.55 - -1.58 = -1.97

Score Difference (Before): -25 (-26.58)

Score Difference (End): -25 (-28.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 31, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:30 ESPN team id 238 (4th & 13 at VAN 19) Harrison Smith punt for 37 yds, downed at the VANDERBILT 44 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MisSt 29 - MSST 31, VAN 6 -0.04 0.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 71

Started Drive at: VAN 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.59 - -3.44 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -25 (-28.55)

Score Difference (End): 25 (28.59)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 31, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:30 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 29) Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 37 - MSST 31, VAN 6 0.30 99.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 63

Started Drive at: MSST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.83 - 3.53 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): 25 (28.53)

Score Difference (End): 25 (28.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 31, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:30 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 2 at MSST 37) Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down - MSST 31, VAN 6 0.17 99.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 55

Started Drive at: MSST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.99 - 3.83 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): 25 (28.83)

Score Difference (End): 25 (28.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 31, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:30 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 45) Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 11 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST down - MSST 31, VAN 6 0.41 99.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 44

Started Drive at: MSST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.40 - 3.99 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 25 (28.99)

Score Difference (End): 25 (29.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 31, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at VAN 44) Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 1 yd to the Vandy 43 - MSST 31, VAN 6 -0.39 99.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 43

Started Drive at: MSST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.87 - 4.27 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 25 (29.27)

Score Difference (End): 25 (28.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 31, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 9 at VAN 43) Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Vandy 40 - MSST 31, VAN 6 -0.57 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 40

Started Drive at: MSST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.16 - 3.72 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 25 (28.72)

Score Difference (End): 25 (28.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 31, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 6 at VAN 40) Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 9 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST down - MSST 31, VAN 6 1.63 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 31

Started Drive at: MSST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.79 - 3.16 = 1.63

Score Difference (Before): 25 (28.16)

Score Difference (End): 25 (29.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 31, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at VAN 31) Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the Vandy 24 - MSST 31, VAN 6 0.22 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 24

Started Drive at: MSST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.00 - 4.79 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): 25 (29.79)

Score Difference (End): 25 (30.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 31, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 3 at VAN 24) Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 9 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST down - MSST 31, VAN 6 0.59 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 15

Started Drive at: MSST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.59 - 5.00 = 0.59

Score Difference (Before): 25 (30.00)

Score Difference (End): 25 (30.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 31, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at VAN 15) Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 5 yds to the Vandy 10 - MSST 31, VAN 6 -0.14 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 10

Started Drive at: MSST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.45 - 5.59 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): 25 (30.59)

Score Difference (End): 25 (30.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 31, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 5 at VAN 10) Will Rogers pass incomplete - MSST 31, VAN 6 -0.80 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: MSST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.65 - 5.45 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): 25 (30.45)

Score Difference (End): 25 (29.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 31, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 5 at VAN 10) ROGERS, Will pass to the right incomplete dropped by HARVEY, Rufus thrown to the VAN0. PENALTY VAN Roughing the Passer on DEVAULT-SMITH, Brayden enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards from the VAN10 to the VAN5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - MSST 31, VAN 6 1.30 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 5

Started Drive at: MSST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.95 - 4.65 = 1.30

Score Difference (Before): 25 (29.65)

Score Difference (End): 25 (30.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 31, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:38 ESPN team id 344 (1st & Goal at VAN 5) Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - MSST 38, VAN 6 0.95 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.05 = 0.95

Score Difference (Before): 25 (31.05)

Score Difference (End): 32 (32.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 31 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:31 ESPN team id 238 (Kickoff at VAN 35) Scott Goodman kickoff for 57 yds , Allan George return for 17 yds to the Vandy 25 - MSST 38, VAN 6 -0.14 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.02 - -0.88 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): -32 (-32.88)

Score Difference (End): -32 (-33.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:31 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at VAN 25) Rocko Griffin run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27 - MSST 38, VAN 6 -0.41 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.28 - -0.88 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): -32 (-32.88)

Score Difference (End): -32 (-33.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:31 ESPN team id 238 (2nd & 8 at VAN 27) VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ben Bresnahan) to the Vandy 20 - MSST 38, VAN 6 -1.36 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 80

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.64 - -1.28 = -1.36

Score Difference (Before): -32 (-33.28)

Score Difference (End): -32 (-34.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:31 ESPN team id 238 (2nd & 15 at VAN 20) Mike Wright pass complete to Patrick Smith for 7 yds to the Vandy 27 - MSST 38, VAN 6 -0.16 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 73

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.05 - -1.90 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -32 (-33.90)

Score Difference (End): -32 (-34.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:31 ESPN team id 238 (3rd & 8 at VAN 27) Mike Wright pass complete to Cam Johnson for 3 yds to the Vandy 30 - MSST 38, VAN 6 -0.48 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 70

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.53 - -2.05 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): -32 (-34.05)

Score Difference (End): -32 (-34.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:14 ESPN team id 238 (4th & 5 at VAN 30) Harrison Smith punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 27 - MSST 38, VAN 6 -0.97 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 73

Started Drive at: VAN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.77 - -1.80 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): -32 (-33.80)

Score Difference (End): 32 (34.77)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:14 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 27) Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 6 yds to the MisSt 33 - MSST 38, VAN 6 -0.21 100.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 67

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 2.24 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): 32 (34.24)

Score Difference (End): 32 (34.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:14 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 4 at MSST 33) Will Rogers pass complete to Christian Ford for 4 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST down - MSST 38, VAN 6 0.52 100.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 63

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.55 - 2.03 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): 32 (34.03)

Score Difference (End): 32 (34.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:14 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 37) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 9 yds to the MisSt 46 - MSST 38, VAN 6 0.51 100.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 54

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.05 - 2.55 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): 32 (34.55)

Score Difference (End): 32 (35.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:14 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 1 at MSST 46) MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Scott Lashley) to the MisSt 41 - MSST 38, VAN 6 -0.86 100.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 59

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.19 - 3.05 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 32 (35.05)

Score Difference (End): 32 (34.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:14 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 6 at MSST 41) Will Rogers pass incomplete - MSST 38, VAN 6 -0.73 100.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - 2.19 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): 32 (34.19)

Score Difference (End): 32 (33.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:54 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 6 at MSST 41) Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 59 yds for a TD - MSST 44, VAN 6 5.75 100.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.92 - 1.17 = 5.75

Score Difference (Before): 32 (33.17)

Score Difference (End): 38 (38.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 44, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (44) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:45 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 9 at MSST 38) Tucker Day punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Cam Johnson at the Vandy 15 - MSST 38, VAN 6 0.05 100.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 85

Started Drive at: MSST 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.32 - 0.26 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): 38 (38.26)

Score Difference (End): -32 (-32.32)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 44 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 6:45 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at VAN 15) Jeremy Moussa pass complete to Gavin Schoenwald for 7 yds to the Vandy 22 - MSST 38, VAN 6 0.27 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 78

Started Drive at: VAN 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.16 - -0.11 = 0.27

Score Difference (Before): -32 (-32.11)

Score Difference (End): -32 (-31.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:45 ESPN team id 238 (2nd & 3 at VAN 22) Jeremy Moussa pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 6 yds to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST down - MSST 38, VAN 6 0.20 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 72

Started Drive at: VAN 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.36 - 0.16 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): -32 (-31.84)

Score Difference (End): -32 (-31.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:45 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at VAN 28) Jeremy Moussa pass complete to Devin Boddie Jr. for 2 yds to the Vandy 30 - MSST 38, VAN 6 -0.41 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 70

Started Drive at: VAN 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - 0.36 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): -32 (-31.64)

Score Difference (End): -32 (-32.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:45 ESPN team id 238 (2nd & 8 at VAN 30) Jeremy Moussa pass incomplete - MSST 38, VAN 6 -0.59 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: VAN 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.64 - -0.05 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): -32 (-32.05)

Score Difference (End): -32 (-32.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:45 ESPN team id 238 (3rd & 8 at VAN 30) Jeremy Moussa pass incomplete - MSST 38, VAN 6 -0.68 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: VAN 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.32 - -0.64 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -32 (-32.64)

Score Difference (End): -32 (-33.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:32 ESPN team id 238 (4th & 8 at VAN 30) Harrison Smith punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Austin Williams at the MisSt 20 - MSST 38, VAN 6 -0.52 0.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 80

Started Drive at: VAN 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.63 - -1.11 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): -32 (-33.11)

Score Difference (End): 32 (33.63)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:32 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 20) Chance Lovertich pass incomplete - MSST 38, VAN 6 -0.34 100.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.70 - 1.04 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 32 (33.04)

Score Difference (End): 32 (32.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:32 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 10 at MSST 20) Chance Lovertich pass complete to Christian Ford for 9 yds to the MisSt 29 - MSST 38, VAN 6 0.13 100.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 71

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - 0.70 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): 32 (32.70)

Score Difference (End): 32 (32.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:32 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 1 at MSST 29) Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down - MSST 38, VAN 6 0.67 100.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.49 - 0.82 = 0.67

Score Difference (Before): 32 (32.82)

Score Difference (End): 32 (33.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:32 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 35) Chance Lovertich pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 9 yds to the MisSt 44 - MSST 38, VAN 6 0.29 100.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 56

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.78 - 1.49 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): 32 (33.49)

Score Difference (End): 32 (33.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:32 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 1 at MSST 44) MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Cole Smith) to the MisSt 39 - MSST 38, VAN 6 -0.57 100.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 61

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 1.78 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 32 (33.78)

Score Difference (End): 32 (33.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:32 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 6 at MSST 39) Chance Lovertich run for 7 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down - MSST 38, VAN 6 0.59 100.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 54

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.80 - 1.21 = 0.59

Score Difference (Before): 32 (33.21)

Score Difference (End): 32 (33.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:32 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 46) Chance Lovertich pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 13 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST down - MSST 38, VAN 6 0.60 100.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 41

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.41 - 1.80 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): 32 (33.80)

Score Difference (End): 32 (34.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:32 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at VAN 41) Chance Lovertich pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 18 yds to the Vandy 23 for a 1ST down - MSST 38, VAN 6 1.10 100.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 23

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.51 - 2.41 = 1.10

Score Difference (Before): 32 (34.41)

Score Difference (End): 32 (35.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:32 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at VAN 23) MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Grant Jackson) to the Vandy 28 - MSST 38, VAN 6 -0.65 100.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 28

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.86 - 3.51 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 32 (35.51)

Score Difference (End): 32 (34.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 38, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:51 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 15 at VAN 28) Chance Lovertich pass complete to Rara Thomas for 28 yds for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK) - MSST 45, VAN 6 4.90 100.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.10 = 4.90

Score Difference (Before): 32 (34.10)

Score Difference (End): 39 (39.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 45, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (45) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:44 ESPN team id 238 (Kickoff at VAN 35) Tucker Day kickoff for 65 yds , James Ziglor III return for 27 yds to the Vandy 27 - MSST 45, VAN 6 0.11 0.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 73

Started Drive at: VAN 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 0.09 = 0.11

Score Difference (Before): -39 (-38.91)

Score Difference (End): -39 (-38.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 45, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:44 ESPN team id 238 (1st & 10 at VAN 27) Jeremy Moussa pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 4 yds to the Vandy 31 - MSST 45, VAN 6 0.01 0.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 69

Started Drive at: VAN 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.15 - 0.14 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): -39 (-38.86)

Score Difference (End): -39 (-38.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 45, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:44 ESPN team id 238 (2nd & 6 at VAN 31) Jeremy Moussa pass complete to Logan Kyle for 5 yds to the Vandy 36 - MSST 45, VAN 6 0.05 0.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 64

Started Drive at: VAN 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 0.15 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): -39 (-38.85)

Score Difference (End): -39 (-38.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 45, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 238 (3rd & 1 at VAN 36) Jeremy Moussa pass incomplete - MSST 45, VAN 6 -0.14 0.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: VAN 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.12 - 0.01 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): -39 (-38.99)

Score Difference (End): -39 (-39.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 45, VAN 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3