Liberty 35 @ North Texas 26

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 4.85 | Odds: LIB -21, O/U 61.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 2335 ESPN team id 249
Total Plays 71104
Total EPA 7.06-7.15
  Offensive EPA 2.82-6.26
  Special Teams EPA 1.40-4.28
  Penalty EPA 5.684.6
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA -2.84-1.21
Production ESPN team id 2335 ESPN team id 249
Scrimmage Plays 6093
  Yards 330463
  Yards/Play 5.504.98
  EPA 2.82-6.26
  EPA/Play 0.05-0.07
Passes 40 (67%)36 (39%)
  Yards 238212
  Yards/Play 5.955.89
  EPA 5.41-3.01
  EPA/Play 0.14-0.08
Rushes 20 (33%)57 (61%)
  Yards 87251
  Yards/Play 4.354.40
  EPA -2.59-3.25
  EPA/Play -0.13-0.06
Rushing ESPN team id 2335 ESPN team id 249
Scrimmage Plays 6093
Rushes 20 (33%)57 (61%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 0 (0%)5 (9%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 0 (0%)5 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 2 (10%)10 (18%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 7 (35%)32 (56%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 10 (50%)22 (39%)
OL Line Yards 4491
  Per Carry 2.201.60
Highlight Yards 14.580.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 1.453.66
Explosiveness ESPN team id 2335 ESPN team id 249
Total Plays 71104
Scrimmage Plays 6093
Explosive Plays 7 (12%)6 (6%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 6 (15%)3 (8%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 1 (5%)3 (5%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -22.63-22.00
  EPA/Play -0.43-0.25
  When Passing -17.77-10.89
    EPA/Play -0.44-0.30
  When Rushing -4.86-11.11
    EPA/Play -0.26-0.21
Situational ESPN team id 2335 ESPN team id 249
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 21 (35%)41 (44%)
  When Passing 14 (35%)18 (50%)
  When Rushing 7 (35%)23 (40%)
  On Standard Downs 12 (36%)27 (44%)
  On Passing Downs 9 (33%)14 (44%)
  On Early Downs 14 (32%)30 (44%)
  On Late Downs 7 (44%)11 (44%)
  During "Middle 8" 5 (31%)6 (38%)
Early Downs 4468
  First Downs Created 7 (16%)12 (18%)
  EPA -8.37-5.89
  EPA/Play -0.19-0.09
  Passes 28 (64%)26 (38%)
  Rushes 16 (36%)42 (62%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 9 (32%)13 (50%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 5 (31%)17 (40%)
"Middle 8" Plays 1616
  EPA 7.09-1.51
  EPA/play 0.44-0.09
  Passes 13 (81%)6 (38%)
  Rushes 3 (19%)10 (63%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 4 (31%)4 (67%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 1 (33%)2 (20%)
Drives ESPN team id 2335 ESPN team id 249
Total 1212
Avg Starting Field Position Own 25Own 32
Plays/Drive 6.3810.49
Yards/Drive 42.6851.87
Available Yards % 57%76%
Defensive ESPN team id 2335 ESPN team id 249
Scrimmage Plays 9360
Stop Rate 39%52%
Havoc Plays Created 10 (11%)10 (17%)
  Passing 3 (8%)8 (20%)
  Rushing 7 (12%)2 (10%)
TFLs Generated 89
  Passing 17
  Rushing 72
Sacks Generated 1 (3%)6 (15%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 21
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 2335 ESPN team id 249
Turnovers 23
  Fumbles 21
  Fumbles Lost 11
  Fumbles Recovered 10
  Interceptions 12
Turnover Margin 1-1
Expected Turnovers 1.71.9
Expected Turnover Margin 0.2-0.2
Turnover Luck (pts) 3.9-3.9
Special Teams ESPN team id 2335 ESPN team id 249
Total Plays 11 12
Total EPA 1.4 -4.28
  Field Goal EPA 0 -0.52
  Punting EPA -3.21 -4.65
  Kickoff Return EPA 4.61 0.89

Liberty [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Johnathan Bennett 5/16, 61 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 56.1 xQBR 3.81 0.29 4.60 31% 12.0%
Malik Willis 11/18, 177 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 6 Scks, 44.8 xQBR 7.38 0.03 0.82 38% 21.0%
Rush attempts
Malik Willis 7 carries, 36 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 5.14 0.37 2.56 57% 5.0%
T.J. Green 5 carries, 25 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.18 0.90 60% 3.0%
Shedro Louis 2 carries, 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.35 -0.70 0% -1.0%
Joshua Mack 5 carries, 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.20 -0.49 -2.47 0% -3.0%
Johnathan Bennett 1 carry, 2 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 2.00 -2.88 -2.88 0% -3.0%
Pass targets
CJ Daniels 6 catches (6 targets), 90 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.00 2.46 14.76 100% 49.0%
Kevin Shaa 2 catches (2 targets), 55 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 27.50 2.67 5.34 100% 10.0%
Shedro Louis 1 catch (1 target), 37 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 37.00 5.10 5.10 100% 11.0%
T.J. Green 1 catch (1 target), 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 18.00 1.04 1.04 100% 3.0%
Brody Brumm 1 catch (1 target), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.29 0.29 100% 1.0%
Demario Douglas 2 catches (2 targets), 21 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.50 0.13 0.27 50% 0.0%
DJ Stubbs 1 catch (1 target), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.17 0.17 100% 0.0%
Noah Frith 1 catch (1 target), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.07 -0.07 0% 0.0%
Joshua Mack 1 catch (1 target), 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -1.49 -1.49 0% -2.0%

North Texas [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Austin Aune 22/35, 212 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 1 Sck, 53.4 xQBR 5.89 -0.08 -3.01 50% 0.0%
Rush attempts
Ayo Adeyi 16 carries, 99 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.19 0.14 2.17 50% -5.0%
Roderic Burns 1 carry, 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 1.03 1.03 100% 1.0%
Austin Aune 10 carries, 58 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 5.80 0.02 0.16 50% 1.0%
Ikaika Ragsdale 2 carries, 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.50 -0.39 -0.77 0% -5.0%
DeAndre Torrey 28 carries, 79 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.82 -0.21 -5.85 32% -2.0%
Pass targets
Damon Ward Jr. 4 catches (4 targets), 57 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.25 1.25 4.98 75% 18.0%
Roderic Burns 6 catches (6 targets), 53 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.83 0.83 4.96 83% 10.0%
Jason Pirtle 5 catches (5 targets), 38 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.60 0.75 3.76 100% 8.0%
Bryson Jackson 2 catches (2 targets), 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 1.63 3.26 100% 6.0%
DeAndre Torrey 2 catches (2 targets), 24 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.00 0.65 1.30 100% 1.0%
Khatib Lyles 2 catches (2 targets), 19 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.50 0.03 0.07 50% -1.0%
Ayo Adeyi 1 catch (1 target), 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.42 -0.42 0% 0.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 1:13 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 15 at UNT 39) CJ Daniels 39 Yd pass from Johnathan Bennett (Brayden Beck Kick) - LIB 14, UNT 20 5.89 53.7% 15.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 99

Started Drive at: LIB 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.11 = 5.89

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-11.89)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.7%

Win Probability (After): 68.7%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:03 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 14 at UNT 21) Demario Douglas 72 Yd Punt Return (Brayden Beck Kick) - LIB 28, UNT 26 -5.12 37.9% -18.8%

Play Type: Punt Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - -1.88 = -5.12

Score Difference (Before): 5 (3.12)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.9%

Win Probability (After): 19.1%

Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 11:19 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 7 at UNT 37) Malik Willis pass complete to Shedro Louis for 37 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK) - LIB 35, UNT 26 5.10 84.5% 11.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99

Started Drive at: LIB 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.90 = 5.10

Score Difference (Before): 2 (3.90)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 108 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.5%

Win Probability (After): 95.5%

Away Score: 28 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 10:21 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 4 at LIB 5) Austin Aune pass intercepted return for no gain to the Liber 1 - LIB 0, UNT 0 -4.54 14.7% -7.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.00 - 5.54 = -4.54

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.7%

Win Probability (After): 7.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:15 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 9 at UNT 27) Kevin Shaa 27 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Beck Kick) - LIB 7, UNT 7 3.66 80.8% 4.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: LIB 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.34 = 3.66

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.66)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.8%

Win Probability (After): 85.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:25 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 2 at LIB 42) Ayo Adeyi 42 Yd Run (Aaron Beckham Kick) - LIB 7, UNT 14 3.49 19.1% 1.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNT 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.51 = 3.49

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.51)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.1%

Win Probability (After): 20.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:08 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 25) Austin Aune pass intercepted return for no gain to the NoTex 37 - LIB 14, UNT 20 -3.32 33.1% -7.5%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 37

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.53 - 0.79 = -3.32

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.79)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.47)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.1%

Win Probability (After): 25.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:51 ESPN team id 2335 (Kickoff at LIB 35) Aaron Beckham kickoff for 63 yds , Shedro Louis return for 53 yds to the NoTex 45 - LIB 0, UNT 7 3.29 81.7% 4.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 45

Started Drive at: UNT 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.24 - -0.05 = 3.29

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.05)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.7%

Win Probability (After): 85.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:46 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 9 at LIB 38) Johnathan Bennett pass incomplete NORTH TEXAS Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Sideline Interference enforced (5 Yards) to the Liber 43 - LIB 14, UNT 20 3.12 67.0% 13.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 43

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.05 - 0.21 = 3.12

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.06)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.95)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.0%

Win Probability (After): 80.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:00 ESPN team id 2335 (4th & 3 at LIB 42) Johnathan Bennett run for 2 yds to the Liber 44 - LIB 7, UNT 17 -2.88 66.9% -3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 44

Started Drive at: LIB 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.31 - -0.43 = -2.88

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.43)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.31)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 7, UNT 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.9%

Win Probability (After): 63.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q3 3:03 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 14 at UNT 21) Demario Douglas 72 Yd Punt Return (Brayden Beck Kick) - LIB 28, UNT 26 -5.12 37.9% -18.8%

Play Type: Punt Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - -1.88 = -5.12

Score Difference (Before): 5 (3.12)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.9%

Win Probability (After): 19.1%

Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:13 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 15 at UNT 39) CJ Daniels 39 Yd pass from Johnathan Bennett (Brayden Beck Kick) - LIB 14, UNT 20 5.89 53.7% 15.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 99

Started Drive at: LIB 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.11 = 5.89

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-11.89)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.7%

Win Probability (After): 68.7%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 5:16 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at UNT 20) CJ Daniels 15 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Beck Kick) - LIB 21, UNT 26 2.65 50.9% 13.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 99

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.35 = 2.65

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-7.65)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 21, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.9%

Win Probability (After): 64.7%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:46 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 9 at LIB 38) Johnathan Bennett pass incomplete NORTH TEXAS Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Sideline Interference enforced (5 Yards) to the Liber 43 - LIB 14, UNT 20 3.12 67.0% 13.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 43

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.05 - 0.21 = 3.12

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.06)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.95)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.0%

Win Probability (After): 80.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:03 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 10 at UNT 39) Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 16 yds to the Liber 45 for a 1ST down - LIB 28, UNT 26 2.53 20.9% 12.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 45

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.47 = 2.53

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.53)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.9%

Win Probability (After): 33.0%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 5 at LIB 40) Austin Aune sacked by Aakil Washington for 0 yards to the Liber 42 - LIB 28, UNT 26 -2.72 31.5% -11.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 42

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.38 - 2.34 = -2.72

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.34)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.5%

Win Probability (After): 20.0%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:19 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 7 at UNT 37) Malik Willis pass complete to Shedro Louis for 37 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK) - LIB 35, UNT 26 5.10 84.5% 11.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99

Started Drive at: LIB 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.90 = 5.10

Score Difference (Before): 2 (3.90)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 108 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.5%

Win Probability (After): 95.5%

Away Score: 28 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 13:46 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 9 at LIB 38) Johnathan Bennett pass incomplete - LIB 14, UNT 20 -1.14 70.1% -9.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 1.07 = -1.14

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.93)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.1%

Win Probability (After): 61.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:08 ESPN team id 2335 (4th & 8 at UNT 35) Johnathan Bennett pass complete to CJ Daniels for 8 yds to the NoTex 27 for a 1ST down - LIB 14, UNT 20 2.30 68.5% 8.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 27

Started Drive at: UNT 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.20 - 0.90 = 2.30

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.10)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.5%

Win Probability (After): 77.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:08 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 25) Austin Aune pass intercepted return for no gain to the NoTex 37 - LIB 14, UNT 20 -3.32 33.1% -7.5%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 37

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.53 - 0.79 = -3.32

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.79)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.47)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.1%

Win Probability (After): 25.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 6:04 ESPN team id 249 (1st & Goal at LIB 2) DeAndre Torrey 2 Yd Run (Aaron Beckham Kick) - LIB 0, UNT 7 0.66 18.9% 6.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: LIB 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.34 = 0.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.9%

Win Probability (After): 25.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:15 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 9 at UNT 27) Kevin Shaa 27 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Beck Kick) - LIB 7, UNT 7 3.66 80.8% 4.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: LIB 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.34 = 3.66

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.66)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.8%

Win Probability (After): 85.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:25 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 2 at LIB 42) Ayo Adeyi 42 Yd Run (Aaron Beckham Kick) - LIB 7, UNT 14 3.49 19.1% 1.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNT 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.51 = 3.49

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.51)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.1%

Win Probability (After): 20.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:14 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 4 at LIB 17) Aaron Beckham 35 Yd Field Goal - LIB 7, UNT 17 0.34 31.8% -2.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 65

Started Drive at: LIB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.66 = 0.34

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.66)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:51 ESPN team id 249 (4th & Goal at LIB 9) Aaron Beckham 27 Yd Field Goal - LIB 7, UNT 20 0.65 43.1% 4.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 65

Started Drive at: LIB 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.35 = 0.65

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.35)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.1%

Win Probability (After): 47.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:13 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 15 at UNT 39) CJ Daniels 39 Yd pass from Johnathan Bennett (Brayden Beck Kick) - LIB 14, UNT 20 5.89 53.7% 15.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 99

Started Drive at: LIB 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.11 = 5.89

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-11.89)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.7%

Win Probability (After): 68.7%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 7:27 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & Goal at LIB 6) Jason Pirtle 6 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) - LIB 14, UNT 26 0.93 47.5% 3.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 5.07 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): 6 (11.07)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.5%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:16 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at UNT 20) CJ Daniels 15 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Beck Kick) - LIB 21, UNT 26 2.65 50.9% 13.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 99

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.35 = 2.65

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-7.65)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 21, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.9%

Win Probability (After): 64.7%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:03 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 14 at UNT 21) Demario Douglas 72 Yd Punt Return (Brayden Beck Kick) - LIB 28, UNT 26 -5.12 37.9% -18.8%

Play Type: Punt Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - -1.88 = -5.12

Score Difference (Before): 5 (3.12)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.9%

Win Probability (After): 19.1%

Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 11:19 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 7 at UNT 37) Malik Willis pass complete to Shedro Louis for 37 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK) - LIB 35, UNT 26 5.10 84.5% 11.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99

Started Drive at: LIB 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.90 = 5.10

Score Difference (Before): 2 (3.90)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 108 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.5%

Win Probability (After): 95.5%

Away Score: 28 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 249 (Kickoff at UNT 35) Alex Barbir kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - LIB 0, UNT 0 0.00 7.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.5%

Win Probability (After): 7.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 25) DeAndre Torrey run for 7 yds to the NoTex 32 - LIB 0, UNT 0 0.59 7.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 68

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.45 - 0.86 = 0.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.5%

Win Probability (After): 7.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 3 at UNT 32) DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST down - LIB 0, UNT 0 0.35 7.3% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 65

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - 1.45 = 0.35

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.45)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.3%

Win Probability (After): 7.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 35) DeAndre Torrey run for 10 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST down - LIB 0, UNT 0 0.58 7.5% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 55

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 1.81 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.81)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.5%

Win Probability (After): 8.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 45) Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 5 yds to the 50 yard line - LIB 0, UNT 0 0.09 8.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 50

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 2.39 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.39)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.2%

Win Probability (After): 8.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 5 at 50) Roderic Burns run for 10 yds to the Liber 40 for a 1ST down - LIB 0, UNT 0 1.03 8.2% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 40

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.50 - 2.47 = 1.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.47)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.2%

Win Probability (After): 9.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at LIB 40) Austin Aune pass incomplete - LIB 0, UNT 0 -0.66 9.2% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.84 - 3.50 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.50)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.2%

Win Probability (After): 8.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 10 at LIB 40) Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the Liber 35 - LIB 0, UNT 0 -0.35 8.8% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 35

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - 2.84 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.84)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.8%

Win Probability (After): 8.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 5 at LIB 35) Austin Aune run for 11 yds to the Liber 24 for a 1ST down - LIB 0, UNT 0 1.63 8.0% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 24

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.12 - 2.49 = 1.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.0%

Win Probability (After): 9.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at LIB 24) DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the Liber 23 - LIB 0, UNT 0 -0.47 9.9% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 23

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.65 - 4.12 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.12)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.9%

Win Probability (After): 9.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 9 at LIB 23) DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the Liber 21 - LIB 0, UNT 0 -0.44 9.4% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 21

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.21 - 3.65 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.65)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.4%

Win Probability (After): 8.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 7 at LIB 21) Austin Aune pass complete to Bryson Jackson for 10 yds to the Liber 11 for a 1ST down - LIB 0, UNT 0 1.60 8.8% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 11

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.81 - 3.21 = 1.60

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.8%

Win Probability (After): 11.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at LIB 11) Ayo Adeyi run for 6 yds to the Liber 5 - LIB 0, UNT 0 0.30 11.0% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 5

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.11 - 4.81 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.81)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.0%

Win Probability (After): 11.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:21 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 4 at LIB 5) Austin Aune pass intercepted return for no gain to the Liber 1 - LIB 0, UNT 0 -4.54 14.7% -7.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.00 - 5.54 = -4.54

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.7%

Win Probability (After): 7.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:21 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at LIB 1) Malik Willis run for 3 yds to the Liber 4 - LIB 0, UNT 0 -0.43 89.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 99 -> 96

Started Drive at: LIB 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.91 - -0.48 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.48)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.6%

Win Probability (After): 89.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:21 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 7 at LIB 4) LIBERTY Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the Liber 2 - LIB 0, UNT 0 -0.36 89.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 98

Started Drive at: LIB 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.27 - -0.91 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.91)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.3%

Win Probability (After): 89.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:21 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 9 at LIB 2) Shedro Louis run for 2 yds to the Liber 4 - LIB 0, UNT 0 -0.60 89.1% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 96

Started Drive at: LIB 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.88 - -1.27 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.27)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.1%

Win Probability (After): 88.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:21 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 7 at LIB 4) Malik Willis sacked by Grayson Murphy for 0 yards to the Liber 2 - LIB 0, UNT 0 -1.40 88.5% -1.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 98

Started Drive at: LIB 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.28 - -1.88 = -1.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.88)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-3.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.5%

Win Probability (After): 86.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:14 ESPN team id 2335 (4th & 9 at LIB 2) Max Morgan punt for 35 yds - LIB 0, UNT 0 -0.36 86.5% 1.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 37

Started Drive at: LIB 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.73 - -3.37 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-3.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.73)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.5%

Win Probability (After): 87.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:14 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at LIB 37) Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 11 yds to the Liber 26 for a 1ST down - LIB 0, UNT 0 0.72 15.5% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 26

Started Drive at: LIB 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.36 - 3.64 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.5%

Win Probability (After): 16.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:14 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at LIB 26) DeAndre Torrey run for 14 yds to the Liber 12 for a 1ST down - LIB 0, UNT 0 0.72 16.8% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 12

Started Drive at: LIB 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.08 - 4.36 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.36)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.8%

Win Probability (After): 18.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:14 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at LIB 12) DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the Liber 10 - LIB 0, UNT 0 -0.51 18.2% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 10

Started Drive at: LIB 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.57 - 5.08 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.2%

Win Probability (After): 17.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:14 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 8 at LIB 10) Ayo Adeyi run for 7 yds to the Liber 3 - LIB 0, UNT 0 0.95 17.6% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 3

Started Drive at: LIB 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.52 - 4.57 = 0.95

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.6%

Win Probability (After): 18.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:14 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 1 at LIB 3) Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the Liber 2 for a 1ST down - LIB 0, UNT 0 0.19 18.0% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 2

Started Drive at: LIB 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.71 - 5.52 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.52)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.0%

Win Probability (After): 18.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:04 ESPN team id 249 (1st & Goal at LIB 2) DeAndre Torrey 2 Yd Run (Aaron Beckham Kick) - LIB 0, UNT 7 0.66 18.9% 6.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: LIB 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.34 = 0.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.9%

Win Probability (After): 25.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:51 ESPN team id 2335 (Kickoff at LIB 35) Aaron Beckham kickoff for 63 yds , Shedro Louis return for 53 yds to the NoTex 45 - LIB 0, UNT 7 3.29 81.7% 4.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 45

Started Drive at: UNT 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.24 - -0.05 = 3.29

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.05)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.7%

Win Probability (After): 85.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:51 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at UNT 45) Malik Willis run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 48 - LIB 0, UNT 7 -1.26 85.5% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 48

Started Drive at: UNT 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 2.29 = -1.26

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.71)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.5%

Win Probability (After): 83.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:51 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 13 at UNT 48) Malik Willis sacked by KD Davis and Grayson Murphy for 0 yards to the Liber 44 - LIB 0, UNT 7 -1.53 83.2% -2.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 56

Started Drive at: UNT 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.50 - 1.03 = -1.53

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.97)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:51 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 21 at LIB 44) QB Keeper WILLIS, Malik rush to the right for a gain of 15 yards to the UNT41, out of bounds. PENALTY LIB Holding on MCCAW, Cooper enforced 10 yards from the LIB44 to the LIB34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - LIB 0, UNT 7 -0.59 80.5% -0.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 66

Started Drive at: UNT 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.10 - -0.50 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.50)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.5%

Win Probability (After): 79.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:51 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 31 at LIB 34) Joshua Mack run for 7 yds to the Liber 41 - LIB 0, UNT 7 -0.75 79.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 59

Started Drive at: UNT 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.85 - -1.10 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.10)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.7%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:42 ESPN team id 2335 (4th & 24 at LIB 41) Max Morgan punt for 40 yds , Roderic Burns returns for 20 yds to the NoTex 39 - LIB 0, UNT 7 -1.11 75.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 61

Started Drive at: UNT 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.97 - -1.86 = -1.11

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.86)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.97)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.8%

Win Probability (After): 75.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 3:42 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 39) Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 6 yds to the NoTex 45 - LIB 0, UNT 7 0.16 22.1% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 55

Started Drive at: UNT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.16 - 3.00 = 0.16

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.00)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.1%

Win Probability (After): 22.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:42 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 4 at UNT 45) DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 44 - LIB 0, UNT 7 -1.03 22.5% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 56

Started Drive at: UNT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.13 - 3.16 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.16)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.5%

Win Probability (After): 21.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:42 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 5 at UNT 44) Austin Aune run for 4 yds to the NoTex 48 - LIB 0, UNT 7 -0.75 21.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 52

Started Drive at: UNT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.38 - 2.13 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.13)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.5%

Win Probability (After): 21.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:59 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 1 at UNT 48) LIBERTY Penalty, Delay Of Game (Rashaad Harding) to the Liber 46 for a 1ST down - LIB 0, UNT 7 2.40 20.9% 1.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 46

Started Drive at: UNT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 1.38 = 2.40

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.38)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.9%

Win Probability (After): 22.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 1:59 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at LIB 46) Timeout NORTH TEXAS, clock 01:59 - LIB 0, UNT 7 0.00 22.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: UNT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 3.79 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.79)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.9%

Win Probability (After): 22.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:59 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at LIB 46) Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 5 yds to the Liber 41 - LIB 0, UNT 7 0.01 23.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 41

Started Drive at: UNT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 3.79 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.79)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.6%

Win Probability (After): 23.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:00 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 5 at LIB 41) AUNE, Austin pass to the right intercepted by TREADWELL, Juawan at the LIB37 intended for WARD, Damon. Treadwell return for 2 yards to the LIB39 (TEAM). PENALTY LIB Pass Interference enforced 15 yards to the LIB26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - LIB 0, UNT 7 0.95 26.0% -1.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 26

Started Drive at: UNT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.75 - 3.80 = 0.95

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.80)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.0%

Win Probability (After): 24.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at LIB 26) Ayo Adeyi run for 4 yds to the Liber 22 - LIB 0, UNT 7 -0.05 26.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 22

Started Drive at: UNT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.70 - 4.75 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.75)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 26.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:00 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 6 at LIB 22) Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the Liber 19 - LIB 0, UNT 7 -0.32 26.9% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 19

Started Drive at: UNT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.38 - 4.70 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.70)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 26.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 3 at LIB 19) Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the Liber 18 - LIB 0, UNT 7 -1.13 29.1% -3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 18

Started Drive at: UNT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 4.33 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.33)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.1%

Win Probability (After): 26.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:57 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 2 at LIB 18) BECKHAM, Aaron field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at LIB26], score nullified by penalty, clock 14:57. PENALTY LIB Offsides on JACKSON, Storey enforced 5 yards from the LIB18 to the LIB13 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down). - LIB 0, UNT 7 1.20 23.8% 1.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 13

Started Drive at: UNT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.37 - 3.17 = 1.20

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.17)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.8%

Win Probability (After): 25.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:57 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at LIB 13) DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the Liber 11 - LIB 0, UNT 7 -0.44 25.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 11

Started Drive at: UNT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.88 - 5.32 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.32)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.4%

Win Probability (After): 25.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:57 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 8 at LIB 11) Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 3 yds to the Liber 8 - LIB 0, UNT 7 -0.45 25.4% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 8

Started Drive at: UNT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.44 - 4.88 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.88)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.4%

Win Probability (After): 24.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:57 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 5 at LIB 8) DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the Liber 6 - LIB 0, UNT 7 -1.32 24.9% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 6

Started Drive at: UNT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.12 - 4.44 = -1.32

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.44)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.9%

Win Probability (After): 24.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:17 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 3 at LIB 6) Austin Aune run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 7 - LIB 0, UNT 7 -2.21 26.3% -3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 93

Started Drive at: UNT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - 3.11 = -2.21

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.11)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.90)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.3%

Win Probability (After): 23.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:17 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at LIB 7) Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 4 yds to the Liber 11 - LIB 0, UNT 7 -0.07 77.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 89

Started Drive at: LIB 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.97 - -0.90 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.90)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.1%

Win Probability (After): 76.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:17 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 6 at LIB 11) WILLIS, Malik pass to the right incomplete intended for FRITH, Noah thrown to the LIB39. PENALTY UNT Pass Interference on WHITLOCK, Quinn enforced 15 yards to the LIB26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - LIB 0, UNT 7 1.42 76.6% 1.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 74

Started Drive at: LIB 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - -0.97 = 1.42

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.97)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.6%

Win Probability (After): 78.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:17 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at LIB 26) Malik Willis run for 12 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST down - LIB 0, UNT 7 0.79 78.3% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 62

Started Drive at: LIB 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.24 - 0.45 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.55)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.3%

Win Probability (After): 78.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:17 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at LIB 38) Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 24 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST down - LIB 0, UNT 7 1.68 78.8% 3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 38

Started Drive at: LIB 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 1.24 = 1.68

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.76)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.8%

Win Probability (After): 81.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:17 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at UNT 38) Malik Willis run for 10 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST down - LIB 0, UNT 7 0.85 81.8% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 28

Started Drive at: LIB 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.77 - 2.92 = 0.85

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.08)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.8%

Win Probability (After): 82.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:17 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at UNT 28) Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the NoTex 27 - LIB 0, UNT 7 -0.58 82.9% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 27

Started Drive at: LIB 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 3.77 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.23)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 0, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.9%

Win Probability (After): 81.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:15 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 9 at UNT 27) Kevin Shaa 27 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Beck Kick) - LIB 7, UNT 7 3.66 80.8% 4.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: LIB 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.34 = 3.66

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.66)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.8%

Win Probability (After): 85.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:15 ESPN team id 249 (Kickoff at UNT 35) Alex Barbir kickoff for 61 yds - LIB 7, UNT 7 0.89 13.2% 1.5%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: UNT 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 1.22 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.22)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.2%

Win Probability (After): 14.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:15 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 35) DeAndre Torrey run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - LIB 7, UNT 7 0.79 14.7% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 50

Started Drive at: UNT 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.90 - 2.11 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.7%

Win Probability (After): 15.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:15 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at 50) Ayo Adeyi run for 8 yds to the Liber 42 - LIB 7, UNT 7 0.61 15.8% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 42

Started Drive at: UNT 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.51 - 2.90 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.90)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.8%

Win Probability (After): 16.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:25 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 2 at LIB 42) Ayo Adeyi 42 Yd Run (Aaron Beckham Kick) - LIB 7, UNT 14 3.49 19.1% 1.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNT 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.51 = 3.49

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.51)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.1%

Win Probability (After): 20.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:25 ESPN team id 2335 (Kickoff at LIB 35) Aaron Beckham kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - LIB 7, UNT 14 0.00 76.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - 0.58 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.42)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.3%

Win Probability (After): 76.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:25 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at LIB 25) Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 5 yds to the Liber 30 - LIB 7, UNT 14 0.17 76.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.75 - 0.58 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.42)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.3%

Win Probability (After): 76.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:25 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 5 at LIB 30) Malik Willis pass intercepted for a 1ST down return for no gain to the Liber 41 for a 1ST down - LIB 7, UNT 14 -2.72 76.4% 1.5%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 59

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.97 - 0.75 = -2.72

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.25)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.4%

Win Probability (After): 77.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:25 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at LIB 41) Malik Willis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 39 fumbled, recovered by Liber Malik Willis - LIB 7, UNT 14 -1.12 77.9% -2.0%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 61

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.85 - 1.97 = -1.12

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.03)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.9%

Win Probability (After): 75.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:25 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 12 at LIB 39) Malik Willis sacked by Dion Novil for 0 yards to the Liber 31 - LIB 7, UNT 14 -1.61 75.9% -2.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 69

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.76 - 0.85 = -1.61

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.15)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.9%

Win Probability (After): 73.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:25 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 20 at LIB 31) Malik Willis sacked by Grayson Murphy and Gabriel Murphy for 0 yards to the Liber 22 - LIB 7, UNT 14 -1.34 73.5% -0.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 78

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.10 - -0.76 = -1.34

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.76)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.5%

Win Probability (After): 73.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:47 ESPN team id 2335 (4th & 29 at LIB 22) Max Morgan punt for 1 yd - LIB 7, UNT 14 -2.67 71.4% -3.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 23

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.77 - -2.11 = -2.67

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.11)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.77)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 7, UNT 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.4%

Win Probability (After): 67.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 7:47 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at LIB 23) Austin Aune pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 5 yds to the Liber 18 - LIB 7, UNT 14 0.13 30.9% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 18

Started Drive at: LIB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.64 - 4.51 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.51)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.9%

Win Probability (After): 31.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:47 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 5 at LIB 18) DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the Liber 18 - LIB 7, UNT 14 -0.83 31.7% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: LIB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.81 - 4.64 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.64)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.7%

Win Probability (After): 30.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:47 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 5 at LIB 18) Austin Aune run for 1 yd to the Liber 17 - LIB 7, UNT 14 -1.16 30.3% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 17

Started Drive at: LIB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.65 - 3.81 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.81)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.3%

Win Probability (After): 29.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:14 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 4 at LIB 17) Aaron Beckham 35 Yd Field Goal - LIB 7, UNT 17 0.34 31.8% -2.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 65

Started Drive at: LIB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.66 = 0.34

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.66)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 6:14 ESPN team id 2335 (Kickoff at LIB 35) Aaron Beckham kickoff for 58 yds - LIB 7, UNT 17 1.92 68.2% 1.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: LIB 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.52 - 0.61 = 1.92

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.39)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.2%

Win Probability (After): 69.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:14 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at LIB 35) Johnathan Bennett pass complete to CJ Daniels for 6 yds to the Liber 41 - LIB 7, UNT 17 0.21 68.6% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 59

Started Drive at: LIB 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.78 - 1.57 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.43)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.6%

Win Probability (After): 70.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:14 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 4 at LIB 41) Johnathan Bennett pass incomplete - LIB 7, UNT 17 -0.72 70.5% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59

Started Drive at: LIB 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.06 - 1.78 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.22)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.5%

Win Probability (After): 68.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:14 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 4 at LIB 41) Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Joshua Mack for 1 yd to the Liber 42 - LIB 7, UNT 17 -1.49 68.3% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 58

Started Drive at: LIB 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.43 - 1.06 = -1.49

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.94)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.3%

Win Probability (After): 65.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:00 ESPN team id 2335 (4th & 3 at LIB 42) Johnathan Bennett run for 2 yds to the Liber 44 - LIB 7, UNT 17 -2.88 66.9% -3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 44

Started Drive at: LIB 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.31 - -0.43 = -2.88

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.43)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.31)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 7, UNT 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.9%

Win Probability (After): 63.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at LIB 44) DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the Liber 43 - LIB 7, UNT 17 -0.45 35.6% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 43

Started Drive at: LIB 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 3.03 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.03)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.6%

Win Probability (After): 35.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:00 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 9 at LIB 43) Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 6 yds to the Liber 37 - LIB 7, UNT 17 0.14 35.0% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 37

Started Drive at: LIB 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.72 - 2.58 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.58)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.0%

Win Probability (After): 34.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:00 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 3 at LIB 37) Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the Liber 35 - LIB 7, UNT 17 -0.59 34.5% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 35

Started Drive at: LIB 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.13 - 2.72 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.72)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.5%

Win Probability (After): 34.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:00 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 1 at LIB 35) Austin Aune run for 17 yds to the Liber 18 for a 1ST down - LIB 7, UNT 17 2.40 34.1% 5.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 18

Started Drive at: LIB 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.53 - 2.13 = 2.40

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.13)

Score Difference (End): 10 (14.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.1%

Win Probability (After): 39.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at LIB 18) Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 3 yds to the Liber 15 - LIB 7, UNT 17 -0.20 39.3% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 15

Started Drive at: LIB 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.33 - 4.53 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): 10 (14.53)

Score Difference (End): 10 (14.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.3%

Win Probability (After): 39.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:00 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 7 at LIB 15) Austin Aune pass incomplete - LIB 7, UNT 17 -0.75 39.5% -2.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: LIB 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.57 - 4.33 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): 10 (14.33)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.5%

Win Probability (After): 36.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:00 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 7 at LIB 15) Austin Aune pass complete to Bryson Jackson for 8 yds to the Liber 7 for a 1ST down - LIB 7, UNT 17 1.66 36.9% 4.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 7

Started Drive at: LIB 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.24 - 3.57 = 1.66

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.57)

Score Difference (End): 10 (15.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.9%

Win Probability (After): 40.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & Goal at LIB 7) DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the Liber 7 - LIB 7, UNT 17 -0.63 41.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 7

Started Drive at: LIB 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.82 - 5.45 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 10 (15.45)

Score Difference (End): 10 (14.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.0%

Win Probability (After): 40.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:51 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & Goal at LIB 9) Timeout LIBERTY, clock 01:51 - LIB 7, UNT 17 0.00 43.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: LIB 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.82 - 4.82 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 10 (14.82)

Score Difference (End): 10 (14.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.7%

Win Probability (After): 43.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:51 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & Goal at LIB 7) DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 9 - LIB 7, UNT 17 -1.18 48.5% -3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 9

Started Drive at: LIB 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.23 - 4.41 = -1.18

Score Difference (Before): 10 (14.41)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 45.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:51 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & Goal at LIB 9) Austin Aune pass incomplete - LIB 7, UNT 17 -0.88 45.2% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: LIB 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 3.23 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.23)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:51 ESPN team id 249 (4th & Goal at LIB 9) Aaron Beckham 27 Yd Field Goal - LIB 7, UNT 20 0.65 43.1% 4.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 65

Started Drive at: LIB 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.35 = 0.65

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.35)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.1%

Win Probability (After): 47.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:48 ESPN team id 2335 (Kickoff at LIB 35) Aaron Beckham kickoff for 65 yds , Duron Lowe return for 10 yds to the Liber 10 - LIB 7, UNT 20 -0.60 59.6% -1.6%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 90

Started Drive at: LIB 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 0.98 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-12.02)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-12.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.6%

Win Probability (After): 57.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:48 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at LIB 10) NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Targeting on GADDIE, DeShawn enforced (DeShawn Gaddie) to the Liber 30 for a 1ST down - LIB 7, UNT 20 0.98 58.5% 1.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 70

Started Drive at: LIB 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.18 - 0.20 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-12.80)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-11.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.5%

Win Probability (After): 60.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:48 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at LIB 30) NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Harold West) to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST down - LIB 7, UNT 20 1.76 60.1% 2.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 34

Started Drive at: LIB 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.94 - 1.18 = 1.76

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-11.82)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-10.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.1%

Win Probability (After): 62.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:48 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at UNT 34) BENNETT, Johnathan pass to the left incomplete intended for LOUIS, Shedro thrown to the UNT36. PENALTY Before the snap, LIB Illegal Formation on ADAIR, Andrew enforced 5 yards from the UNT34 to the UNT39. NO PLAY (replay the down). - LIB 7, UNT 20 -0.97 62.8% -2.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 39

Started Drive at: LIB 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - 2.94 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-10.06)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-11.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.8%

Win Probability (After): 60.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:48 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 15 at UNT 39) Johnathan Bennett pass incomplete - LIB 7, UNT 20 -0.37 60.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39

Started Drive at: LIB 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 1.97 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-11.03)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-11.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.5%

Win Probability (After): 60.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:48 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 15 at UNT 39) Johnathan Bennett pass incomplete - LIB 7, UNT 20 -0.48 60.2% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39

Started Drive at: LIB 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 1.60 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-11.40)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-11.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 7, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.2%

Win Probability (After): 59.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:13 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 15 at UNT 39) CJ Daniels 39 Yd pass from Johnathan Bennett (Brayden Beck Kick) - LIB 14, UNT 20 5.89 53.7% 15.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 99

Started Drive at: LIB 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.11 = 5.89

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-11.89)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.7%

Win Probability (After): 68.7%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:13 ESPN team id 249 (Kickoff at UNT 35) Alex Barbir kickoff for 59 yds - LIB 14, UNT 20 0.00 33.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - 0.79 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.79)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.1%

Win Probability (After): 33.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:08 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 25) Austin Aune pass intercepted return for no gain to the NoTex 37 - LIB 14, UNT 20 -3.32 33.1% -7.5%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 37

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.53 - 0.79 = -3.32

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.79)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.47)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.1%

Win Probability (After): 25.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:08 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at UNT 37) BENNETT, Johnathan pass to the right incomplete intended for FRITH, Noah broken up by WHITLOCK, Quinn at the UNT34. PENALTY LIB Holding on GRAHAM, Jonathan enforced 10 yards from the UNT37 to the UNT47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - LIB 14, UNT 20 -1.21 74.1% -4.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 47

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.33 - 2.54 = -1.21

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.46)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.1%

Win Probability (After): 69.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:08 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 20 at UNT 47) BENNETT, Johnathan pass to the left incomplete intended for DANIELS, CJ broken up by DAVIS, John at the UNT12. PENALTY UNT Offsides on MURPHY, Gabriel enforced 5 yards from the UNT47 to the UNT42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - LIB 14, UNT 20 0.14 69.5% 0.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 42

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - 1.33 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.67)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.5%

Win Probability (After): 69.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:08 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 15 at UNT 42) Johnathan Bennett pass complete to CJ Daniels for 7 yds to the NoTex 35 - LIB 14, UNT 20 0.94 69.9% 3.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 35

Started Drive at: UNT 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 1.46 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.54)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.9%

Win Probability (After): 73.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:08 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 8 at UNT 35) Johnathan Bennett pass incomplete - LIB 14, UNT 20 -0.46 73.9% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35

Started Drive at: UNT 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.94 - 2.40 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.60)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.9%

Win Probability (After): 71.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:08 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 8 at UNT 35) Johnathan Bennett pass incomplete - LIB 14, UNT 20 -1.04 71.2% -2.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35

Started Drive at: UNT 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - 1.94 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.06)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.2%

Win Probability (After): 68.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:08 ESPN team id 2335 (4th & 8 at UNT 35) Johnathan Bennett pass complete to CJ Daniels for 8 yds to the NoTex 27 for a 1ST down - LIB 14, UNT 20 2.30 68.5% 8.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 27

Started Drive at: UNT 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.20 - 0.90 = 2.30

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.10)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.5%

Win Probability (After): 77.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:26 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 10 at UNT 27) Timeout NORTH TEXAS, clock 00:26 - LIB 14, UNT 20 0.00 77.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 27

Started Drive at: UNT 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.20 - 3.20 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.80)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.9%

Win Probability (After): 77.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:26 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at UNT 27) Johnathan Bennett pass incomplete - LIB 14, UNT 20 -0.13 76.2% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 27

Started Drive at: UNT 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.65 - 2.78 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.22)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.2%

Win Probability (After): 75.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:26 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 10 at UNT 27) Johnathan Bennett pass incomplete - LIB 14, UNT 20 -0.27 75.5% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 27

Started Drive at: UNT 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.37 - 2.65 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.35)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.5%

Win Probability (After): 74.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:14 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 10 at UNT 27) Johnathan Bennett pass incomplete - LIB 14, UNT 20 -0.35 72.2% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 27

Started Drive at: UNT 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.70 - 2.04 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.96)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.2%

Win Probability (After): 70.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:14 ESPN team id 2335 (4th & 10 at UNT 27) Timeout LIBERTY, clock 00:14 - LIB 14, UNT 20 0.00 69.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 27

Started Drive at: UNT 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.70 - 1.70 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.30)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.7%

Win Probability (After): 69.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:07 ESPN team id 2335 (4th & 10 at UNT 27) Johnathan Bennett pass incomplete - LIB 14, UNT 20 -1.42 68.8% -6.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 73

Started Drive at: UNT 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.14 - 1.42 = -1.42

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.58)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.14)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.8%

Win Probability (After): 62.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2335 (Kickoff at LIB 35) Aaron Beckham kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - LIB 14, UNT 20 0.00 62.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.31 - 0.31 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.69)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.6%

Win Probability (After): 62.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at LIB 25) T.J. Green run for 9 yds to the Liber 34 - LIB 14, UNT 20 1.25 62.6% 2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 0.31 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.69)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.6%

Win Probability (After): 64.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 1 at LIB 34) T.J. Green run for 3 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST down - LIB 14, UNT 20 -0.18 64.7% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 63

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.37 - 1.56 = -0.18

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.44)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.7%

Win Probability (After): 65.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at LIB 37) T.J. Green run for 1 yd to the Liber 38 - LIB 14, UNT 20 -0.57 65.8% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 62

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.81 - 1.37 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.63)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.8%

Win Probability (After): 64.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:46 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 9 at LIB 38) Johnathan Bennett pass incomplete - LIB 14, UNT 20 -1.14 70.1% -9.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 1.07 = -1.14

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.93)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.1%

Win Probability (After): 61.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:46 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 9 at LIB 38) Johnathan Bennett pass incomplete NORTH TEXAS Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Sideline Interference enforced (5 Yards) to the Liber 43 - LIB 14, UNT 20 3.12 67.0% 13.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 43

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.05 - 0.21 = 3.12

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.06)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.95)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.0%

Win Probability (After): 80.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:33 ESPN team id 2335 (4th & 4 at LIB 43) Aidan Alves punt for 46 yds - LIB 14, UNT 20 0.12 64.2% 2.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 89

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.76 - -0.88 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.88)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.76)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.2%

Win Probability (After): 66.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 13:33 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 11) DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 10 - LIB 14, UNT 20 -1.26 34.2% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 90

Started Drive at: UNT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.48 - 0.77 = -1.26

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.77)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.2%

Win Probability (After): 32.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:33 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 11 at UNT 10) DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the NoTex 14 - LIB 14, UNT 20 -0.05 32.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 86

Started Drive at: UNT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.53 - -0.48 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): 6 (5.52)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.0%

Win Probability (After): 31.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:33 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 7 at UNT 14) Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 10 yds to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST down - LIB 14, UNT 20 1.96 31.7% 3.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 76

Started Drive at: UNT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.43 - -0.53 = 1.96

Score Difference (Before): 6 (5.47)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.7%

Win Probability (After): 35.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:33 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 24) Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the NoTex 26 - LIB 14, UNT 20 -0.49 35.5% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 74

Started Drive at: UNT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.94 - 1.43 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.43)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.5%

Win Probability (After): 34.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:33 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 8 at UNT 26) Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 11 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST down - LIB 14, UNT 20 1.38 34.5% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 63

Started Drive at: UNT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.32 - 0.94 = 1.38

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.94)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.5%

Win Probability (After): 36.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:33 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 37) Ayo Adeyi run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 35 - LIB 14, UNT 20 -0.97 36.7% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 65

Started Drive at: UNT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 2.32 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.32)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.7%

Win Probability (After): 34.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:33 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 12 at UNT 35) Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 33 yds to the Liber 32 for a 1ST down - LIB 14, UNT 20 2.81 34.6% 6.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 32

Started Drive at: UNT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.16 - 1.35 = 2.81

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.35)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.6%

Win Probability (After): 40.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:33 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at LIB 32) Ayo Adeyi run for 8 yds to the Liber 24 - LIB 14, UNT 20 0.45 40.6% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 24

Started Drive at: UNT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.61 - 4.16 = 0.45

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.16)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.6%

Win Probability (After): 41.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:33 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 2 at LIB 24) ADEYI, Ayo rush to the left for no gain to the LIB24 (CLARK, TreShaun;TREADWELL, Juawan). PENALTY Before the snap, LIB Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the LIB24 to the LIB19 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down). - LIB 14, UNT 20 0.19 41.6% 0.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 19

Started Drive at: UNT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.80 - 4.61 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.61)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.6%

Win Probability (After): 42.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:33 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at LIB 19) DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the Liber 18 - LIB 14, UNT 20 -0.56 42.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 18

Started Drive at: UNT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.24 - 4.80 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.80)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.1%

Win Probability (After): 42.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:33 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 9 at LIB 18) Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 7 yds to the Liber 11 - LIB 14, UNT 20 0.45 42.1% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 11

Started Drive at: UNT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.69 - 4.24 = 0.45

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.24)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.1%

Win Probability (After): 42.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:33 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 2 at LIB 11) DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the Liber 10 - LIB 14, UNT 20 -0.42 42.3% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 10

Started Drive at: UNT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.27 - 4.69 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.69)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.3%

Win Probability (After): 41.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:33 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 1 at LIB 10) DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the Liber 8 for a 1ST down - LIB 14, UNT 20 1.01 41.6% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 8

Started Drive at: UNT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.28 - 4.27 = 1.01

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.27)

Score Difference (End): 6 (11.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.6%

Win Probability (After): 43.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 13:33 ESPN team id 249 (1st & Goal at LIB 8) DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the Liber 6 - LIB 14, UNT 20 -0.45 43.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 6

Started Drive at: UNT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.96 - 5.41 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): 6 (11.41)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 20

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.6%

Win Probability (After): 43.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:27 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & Goal at LIB 6) Jason Pirtle 6 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) - LIB 14, UNT 26 0.93 47.5% 3.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 5.07 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): 6 (11.07)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.5%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:27 ESPN team id 2335 (Kickoff at LIB 35) Aaron Beckham kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - LIB 14, UNT 26 0.00 42.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - -0.04 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.04)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.3%

Win Probability (After): 42.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:27 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at LIB 25) Malik Willis pass incomplete - LIB 14, UNT 26 -0.54 42.3% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.58 - -0.04 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.04)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.3%

Win Probability (After): 41.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:27 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 10 at LIB 25) Malik Willis sacked by Larry Nixon III and Dion Novil for 0 yards to the Liber 19 - LIB 14, UNT 26 -1.71 41.1% -4.9%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 81

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.28 - -0.58 = -1.71

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.58)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-14.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.1%

Win Probability (After): 36.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:27 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 16 at LIB 19) NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offsides Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Dillion (Grayson Murphy) declined for a 1ST down - LIB 14, UNT 26 1.87 36.2% 5.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 81

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.41 - -2.28 = 1.87

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-14.28)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.2%

Win Probability (After): 41.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:27 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at UNT 41) Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the NoTex 40 - LIB 14, UNT 26 -0.52 50.8% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 40

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 2.76 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-9.24)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-9.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.8%

Win Probability (After): 49.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:27 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 9 at UNT 40) Malik Willis pass incomplete - LIB 14, UNT 26 -1.04 49.6% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 2.24 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-9.76)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-10.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.6%

Win Probability (After): 48.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:53 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 9 at UNT 40) Malik Willis run for 9 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST down - LIB 14, UNT 26 2.26 46.7% 4.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 31

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.50 - 1.24 = 2.26

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-10.76)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-8.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.7%

Win Probability (After): 51.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:53 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at UNT 31) Malik Willis pass incomplete - LIB 14, UNT 26 -0.65 52.8% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 31

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.86 - 3.51 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-8.49)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-9.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.8%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:53 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 10 at UNT 31) Malik Willis pass complete to Brody Brumm for 7 yds to the NoTex 24 - LIB 14, UNT 26 0.29 51.5% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 24

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.16 - 2.86 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-9.14)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-8.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.5%

Win Probability (After): 52.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:53 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 3 at UNT 24) LOUIS, Shedro rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the UNT20 (COLVIN, Caleb). PENALTY UNT Sideline Interference enforced 4 yards from the UNT24 to the UNT20 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - LIB 14, UNT 26 1.13 52.6% 2.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 20

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.28 - 3.16 = 1.13

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-8.84)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-7.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 14, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 54.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:16 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at UNT 20) CJ Daniels 15 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Beck Kick) - LIB 21, UNT 26 2.65 50.9% 13.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 99

Started Drive at: LIB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.35 = 2.65

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-7.65)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 21, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.9%

Win Probability (After): 64.7%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:16 ESPN team id 249 (Kickoff at UNT 35) Jason Stricker kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - LIB 21, UNT 26 0.00 42.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.44 - 1.44 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.44)

Score Difference (End): 5 (6.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 21, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.0%

Win Probability (After): 42.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:16 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 25) DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NoTex 27 - LIB 21, UNT 26 -0.51 42.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.92 - 1.44 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.44)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 21, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.0%

Win Probability (After): 41.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:16 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 8 at UNT 27) DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 28 - LIB 21, UNT 26 -0.96 41.7% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 72

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 0.92 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): 5 (5.92)

Score Difference (End): 5 (4.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 21, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.7%

Win Probability (After): 40.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:16 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 7 at UNT 28) AUNE, Austin pass up the middle complete for 31 yards to BURNS, Roderic caught at the LIB41 and advanced to the LIB41, End of Play. PENALTY UNT Holding enforced 10 yards from the UNT28 to the UNT18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - LIB 21, UNT 26 -0.77 40.3% -1.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 82

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.81 - -0.03 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): 5 (4.97)

Score Difference (End): 5 (4.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 21, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.3%

Win Probability (After): 38.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:16 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 17 at UNT 18) Austin Aune pass complete to Khatib Lyles for 3 yds to the NoTex 21 - LIB 21, UNT 26 -0.98 38.9% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 79

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.79 - -0.81 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 5 (4.19)

Score Difference (End): 5 (3.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 21, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.9%

Win Probability (After): 36.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:03 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 14 at UNT 21) Demario Douglas 72 Yd Punt Return (Brayden Beck Kick) - LIB 28, UNT 26 -5.12 37.9% -18.8%

Play Type: Punt Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - -1.88 = -5.12

Score Difference (Before): 5 (3.12)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.9%

Win Probability (After): 19.1%

Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:03 ESPN team id 249 (Kickoff at UNT 35) Jason Stricker kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - LIB 28, UNT 26 0.00 23.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.87 - 0.87 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.13)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.2%

Win Probability (After): 23.2%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:03 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 25) Ayo Adeyi run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 24 - LIB 28, UNT 26 -1.06 23.2% -3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 76

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - 0.87 = -1.06

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.13)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.2%

Win Probability (After): 19.9%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:03 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 11 at UNT 24) Austin Aune pass complete to Ayo Adeyi for 3 yds to the NoTex 27 - LIB 28, UNT 26 -0.42 19.9% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 73

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.61 - -0.19 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-2.19)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.9%

Win Probability (After): 19.7%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:03 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 8 at UNT 27) Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 12 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST down - LIB 28, UNT 26 2.54 19.7% 6.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 61

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - -0.61 = 2.54

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-2.61)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.7%

Win Probability (After): 26.1%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:03 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 39) Austin Aune pass incomplete - LIB 28, UNT 26 -0.63 26.1% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.30 - 1.93 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.07)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.1%

Win Probability (After): 24.6%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:03 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 10 at UNT 39) Austin Aune pass incomplete - LIB 28, UNT 26 -0.83 24.6% -3.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.47 - 1.30 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.70)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.6%

Win Probability (After): 20.9%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:03 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 10 at UNT 39) Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 16 yds to the Liber 45 for a 1ST down - LIB 28, UNT 26 2.53 20.9% 12.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 45

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.47 = 2.53

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.53)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.9%

Win Probability (After): 33.0%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:03 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at LIB 45) Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the Liber 43 - LIB 28, UNT 26 -0.46 33.0% -2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 43

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.54 - 3.00 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.00)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.0%

Win Probability (After): 30.5%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:03 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 8 at LIB 43) Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the Liber 40 - LIB 28, UNT 26 -0.31 30.5% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 40

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.23 - 2.54 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.54)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.5%

Win Probability (After): 28.2%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 5 at LIB 40) Austin Aune sacked by Aakil Washington for 0 yards to the Liber 42 - LIB 28, UNT 26 -2.72 31.5% -11.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 42

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.38 - 2.34 = -2.72

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.34)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.5%

Win Probability (After): 20.0%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 7 at LIB 42) Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 39 yds, downed at the Liber 3 - LIB 28, UNT 26 0.47 17.5% 5.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 97

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - -0.09 = 0.47

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-2.09)

Score Difference (End): 2 (1.62)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.5%

Win Probability (After): 22.5%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at LIB 3) Malik Willis pass incomplete - LIB 28, UNT 26 -0.75 77.5% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 97 -> 97

Started Drive at: LIB 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.08 - -0.34 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): 2 (1.66)

Score Difference (End): 2 (0.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.5%

Win Probability (After): 76.3%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 10 at LIB 3) Malik Willis pass incomplete - LIB 28, UNT 26 -0.82 76.3% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 97 -> 97

Started Drive at: LIB 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.90 - -1.08 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): 2 (0.92)

Score Difference (End): 2 (0.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.3%

Win Probability (After): 74.1%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 10 at LIB 3) Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 15 yds to the Liber 18 for a 1ST down - LIB 28, UNT 26 2.77 74.1% 6.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 97 -> 82

Started Drive at: LIB 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.87 - -1.90 = 2.77

Score Difference (Before): 2 (0.10)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.1%

Win Probability (After): 80.3%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:58 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at LIB 46) Timeout NORTH TEXAS, clock 13:58 - LIB 28, UNT 26 0.00 82.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54

Started Drive at: LIB 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.87 - 0.87 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.87)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.2%

Win Probability (After): 82.2%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:58 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at LIB 18) Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 28 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST down - LIB 28, UNT 26 1.68 82.1% 5.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 54

Started Drive at: LIB 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.46 - 0.78 = 1.68

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.78)

Score Difference (End): 2 (4.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.1%

Win Probability (After): 87.5%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:58 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at LIB 46) Malik Willis sacked by Larry Nixon III and Grayson Murphy for 0 yards to the Liber 35 - LIB 28, UNT 26 -1.61 87.5% -5.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 65

Started Drive at: LIB 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.85 - 2.46 = -1.61

Score Difference (Before): 2 (4.46)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.5%

Win Probability (After): 82.2%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:58 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 21 at LIB 35) Malik Willis pass complete to T.J. Green for 18 yds to the NoTex 47 - LIB 28, UNT 26 1.04 82.2% 3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 47

Started Drive at: LIB 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.89 - 0.85 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.85)

Score Difference (End): 2 (3.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.2%

Win Probability (After): 85.2%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:58 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 3 at UNT 47) Malik Willis run for 7 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offsides (Grayson Murphy) declined for a 1ST down - LIB 28, UNT 26 1.46 85.2% 3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 40

Started Drive at: LIB 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.35 - 1.89 = 1.46

Score Difference (Before): 2 (3.89)

Score Difference (End): 2 (5.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.2%

Win Probability (After): 88.6%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:58 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at UNT 40) Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 43 - LIB 28, UNT 26 -1.41 88.6% -3.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 43

Started Drive at: LIB 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.94 - 3.35 = -1.41

Score Difference (Before): 2 (5.35)

Score Difference (End): 2 (3.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.6%

Win Probability (After): 85.3%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:58 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 13 at UNT 43) Shedro Louis run for 6 yds to the NoTex 37 - LIB 28, UNT 26 -0.10 85.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 37

Started Drive at: LIB 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.84 - 1.94 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): 2 (3.94)

Score Difference (End): 2 (3.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 28, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.3%

Win Probability (After): 85.3%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:19 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 7 at UNT 37) Malik Willis pass complete to Shedro Louis for 37 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK) - LIB 35, UNT 26 5.10 84.5% 11.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99

Started Drive at: LIB 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.90 = 5.10

Score Difference (Before): 2 (3.90)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 108 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.5%

Win Probability (After): 95.5%

Away Score: 28 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:19 ESPN team id 249 (Kickoff at UNT 35) Jason Stricker kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - LIB 35, UNT 26 0.00 5.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.59 - 0.59 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.41)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.3%

Win Probability (After): 5.3%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:14 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 25) Austin Aune pass incomplete - LIB 35, UNT 26 -0.54 5.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.07 - 0.61 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.39)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.3%

Win Probability (After): 5.1%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:14 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 10 at UNT 25) Austin Aune run for 8 yds to the NoTex 33 - LIB 35, UNT 26 0.59 5.1% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.68 - 0.09 = 0.59

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.91)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.1%

Win Probability (After): 5.4%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:14 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 2 at UNT 33) DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 34 - LIB 35, UNT 26 -1.03 5.4% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 66

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - 0.68 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.32)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.4%

Win Probability (After): 4.8%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:08 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 35) Timeout NORTH TEXAS, clock 10:08 - LIB 35, UNT 26 0.00 5.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - -0.35 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-9.35)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.1%

Win Probability (After): 5.1%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:08 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 1 at UNT 34) DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST down - LIB 35, UNT 26 1.96 4.2% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 65

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.75 - -0.21 = 1.96

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-9.21)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.2%

Win Probability (After): 5.1%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:08 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 35) DeAndre Torrey run for 9 yds to the NoTex 44 - LIB 35, UNT 26 0.89 5.1% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 56

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.64 - 1.75 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.25)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-6.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.1%

Win Probability (After): 6.3%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:08 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 1 at UNT 44) Austin Aune pass incomplete - LIB 35, UNT 26 -0.63 6.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.01 - 2.64 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.36)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-6.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.3%

Win Probability (After): 5.7%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:08 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 1 at UNT 44) Ayo Adeyi run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - LIB 35, UNT 26 0.62 5.7% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 50

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 2.01 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.99)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-6.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.7%

Win Probability (After): 6.3%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:08 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at 50) Austin Aune run for 5 yds to the Liber 45 - LIB 35, UNT 26 0.14 6.3% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 45

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.77 - 2.63 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.37)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-6.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.3%

Win Probability (After): 6.5%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:08 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 5 at LIB 45) Ayo Adeyi run for 7 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST down - LIB 35, UNT 26 0.53 6.5% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 38

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.30 - 2.77 = 0.53

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.23)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-5.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.5%

Win Probability (After): 7.0%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:07 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at LIB 38) DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 40 - LIB 35, UNT 26 -0.88 7.1% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 40

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.25 - 3.13 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-5.87)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-6.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.1%

Win Probability (After): 6.1%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:07 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 12 at LIB 40) QB Keeper AUNE, Austin rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the LIB38 (JACKSON, Storey). PENALTY UNT Holding on BLAIR, Gabe enforced 10 yards from the LIB40 to the UNT50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - LIB 35, UNT 26 -0.77 6.3% -0.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 50

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.24 - 2.01 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.99)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.3%

Win Probability (After): 5.6%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:07 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 22 at 50) Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 14 yds to the Liber 36 - LIB 35, UNT 26 0.63 5.6% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 36

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 1.24 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.76)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 6.2%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:16 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 8 at LIB 36) Timeout NORTH TEXAS, clock 07:16 - LIB 35, UNT 26 0.00 4.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 1.87 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.13)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.8%

Win Probability (After): 4.8%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 7:16 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 8 at LIB 36) Austin Aune pass incomplete - LIB 35, UNT 26 -1.57 5.5% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - 2.01 = -1.57

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.99)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.5%

Win Probability (After): 3.7%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:11 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 8 at LIB 36) Austin Aune pass incomplete - LIB 35, UNT 26 -2.58 3.7% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 64

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.10 - 0.48 = -2.58

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.52)

Score Difference (End): 9 (11.10)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.7%

Win Probability (After): 2.7%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 7:11 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at LIB 36) Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the Liber 39 - LIB 35, UNT 26 -0.40 97.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 61

Started Drive at: LIB 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.70 - 2.10 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): 9 (11.10)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.3%

Win Probability (After): 97.2%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 5:42 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 3 at LIB 43) Timeout LIBERTY, clock 05:42 - LIB 35, UNT 26 0.00 98.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: LIB 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.70 - 1.70 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.70)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.0%

Win Probability (After): 98.0%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 5:42 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 7 at LIB 39) Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Liber 43 - LIB 35, UNT 26 -0.21 97.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 57

Started Drive at: LIB 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.05 - 1.26 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.26)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.9%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 5:42 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 3 at LIB 43) QB Keeper WILLIS, Malik rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the LIB48 (NIXON III, Larry). PENALTY LIB Holding on BOUNDS, Damian enforced 10 yards from the LIB43 to the LIB33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - LIB 35, UNT 26 -1.30 97.8% -1.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 67

Started Drive at: LIB 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.25 - 1.05 = -1.30

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.05)

Score Difference (End): 9 (8.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 96.6%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 5:42 ESPN team id 2335 (3rd & 13 at LIB 33) Malik Willis pass incomplete LIBERTY Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declined - LIB 35, UNT 26 -1.03 96.6% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: LIB 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.28 - -0.25 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): 9 (8.75)

Score Difference (End): 9 (7.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.6%

Win Probability (After): 95.8%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 5:00 ESPN team id 2335 (4th & 13 at LIB 33) Aidan Alves punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 20 - LIB 35, UNT 26 0.81 96.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 80

Started Drive at: LIB 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.28 - -1.09 = 0.81

Score Difference (Before): 9 (7.91)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.72)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.0%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 20) Austin Aune pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 19 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST down - LIB 35, UNT 26 1.17 2.9% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 61

Started Drive at: UNT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.86 - 0.69 = 1.17

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.31)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 1 play, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.9%

Win Probability (After): 3.5%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 39) Austin Aune pass incomplete - LIB 35, UNT 26 -0.51 3.5% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: UNT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - 1.86 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.14)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.5%

Win Probability (After): 3.2%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:00 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 10 at UNT 39) Austin Aune run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - LIB 35, UNT 26 1.09 3.2% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 50

Started Drive at: UNT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.45 - 1.36 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.64)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-6.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.2%

Win Probability (After): 3.9%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at 50) Austin Aune pass complete to Khatib Lyles for 16 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST down - LIB 35, UNT 26 1.05 3.9% 1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 34

Started Drive at: UNT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.49 - 2.45 = 1.05

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.55)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-5.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.9%

Win Probability (After): 5.4%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at LIB 34) AUNE, Austin pass to the left incomplete intended for BROWN, Detraveon broken up by MEGGINSON, Chris at the LIB7. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on MEGGINSON, Chris enforced 15 yards to the LIB19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - LIB 35, UNT 26 0.88 5.4% 2.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 19

Started Drive at: UNT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.37 - 3.49 = 0.88

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-5.51)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-4.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.4%

Win Probability (After): 7.4%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at LIB 19) LIBERTY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Robert Rahimi) to the Liber 11 for a 1ST down - LIB 35, UNT 26 0.52 7.4% 0.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 11

Started Drive at: UNT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.89 - 4.37 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-4.63)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-4.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.4%

Win Probability (After): 7.8%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at LIB 11) Austin Aune run for 2 yds to the Liber 9 - LIB 35, UNT 26 -0.42 7.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 9

Started Drive at: UNT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.47 - 4.89 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-4.11)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-4.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.8%

Win Probability (After): 7.2%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:00 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 8 at LIB 9) Austin Aune pass incomplete - LIB 35, UNT 26 -0.77 7.2% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: UNT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.70 - 4.47 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-4.53)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-5.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.2%

Win Probability (After): 5.4%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:00 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 8 at LIB 9) Austin Aune run for no gain to the Liber 9 - LIB 35, UNT 26 -1.15 5.4% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: UNT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.55 - 3.70 = -1.15

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-5.30)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-6.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.4%

Win Probability (After): 3.8%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:44 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 8 at LIB 9) Aaron Beckham 26 yd FG MISSED - LIB 35, UNT 26 -2.71 2.7% -0.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 91

Started Drive at: UNT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.28 - 2.43 = -2.71

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.57)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.28)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.7%

Win Probability (After): 1.9%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:44 ESPN team id 2335 (1st & 10 at LIB 20) T.J. Green run for 7 yds to the Liber 27 - LIB 35, UNT 26 0.15 99.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 73

Started Drive at: LIB 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.00 - 0.85 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): 9 (9.85)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:44 ESPN team id 2335 (2nd & 3 at LIB 27) T.J. Green run for 5 yds to the Liber 32 for a 1ST down - LIB 35, UNT 26 0.25 99.1% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 68

Started Drive at: LIB 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.25 - 1.00 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.00)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: LIB 35, UNT 26

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 35 (35) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1