Notre Dame 41 @ Florida State 38

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 6.44 | Odds: ND -7.5, O/U 54.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 87 ESPN team id 52
Total Plays 8587
Total EPA 11.0911.84
  Offensive EPA 10.9514.47
  Special Teams EPA 1.44-0.38
  Penalty EPA 2.62-4.39
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA -3.922.14
Production ESPN team id 87 ESPN team id 52
Scrimmage Plays 7074
  Yards 455461
  Yards/Play 6.506.23
  EPA 10.9514.47
  EPA/Play 0.160.20
Passes 39 (56%)31 (42%)
  Yards 366178
  Yards/Play 9.385.74
  EPA 17.94-1.98
  EPA/Play 0.46-0.06
Rushes 31 (44%)43 (58%)
  Yards 81298
  Yards/Play 2.616.93
  EPA -7.0016.46
  EPA/Play -0.230.38
Rushing ESPN team id 87 ESPN team id 52
Scrimmage Plays 7074
Rushes 31 (44%)43 (58%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 0 (0%)1 (2%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 0 (0%)1 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 7 (23%)6 (14%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 15 (48%)18 (42%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 11 (35%)23 (53%)
OL Line Yards 48.571.1
  Per Carry 1.561.65
Highlight Yards 8145.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 0.736.33
Explosiveness ESPN team id 87 ESPN team id 52
Total Plays 8587
Scrimmage Plays 7074
Explosive Plays 6 (9%)8 (11%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 5 (13%)3 (10%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 1 (3%)5 (12%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -12.41-15.91
  EPA/Play -0.19-0.24
  When Passing -3.24-14.83
    EPA/Play -0.08-0.48
  When Rushing -9.17-1.08
    EPA/Play -0.31-0.03
Situational ESPN team id 87 ESPN team id 52
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 34 (49%)31 (42%)
  When Passing 21 (54%)10 (32%)
  When Rushing 13 (42%)21 (49%)
  On Standard Downs 25 (51%)20 (43%)
  On Passing Downs 9 (43%)11 (39%)
  On Early Downs 26 (51%)22 (39%)
  On Late Downs 8 (42%)9 (50%)
  During "Middle 8" 8 (67%)2 (18%)
Early Downs 5156
  First Downs Created 10 (20%)11 (20%)
  EPA 4.506.52
  EPA/Play 0.090.12
  Passes 25 (49%)18 (32%)
  Rushes 26 (51%)38 (68%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 14 (56%)4 (22%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 12 (46%)18 (47%)
"Middle 8" Plays 1211
  EPA 10.64-2.36
  EPA/play 0.89-0.21
  Passes 9 (75%)6 (55%)
  Rushes 3 (25%)5 (45%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 6 (67%)2 (33%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 2 (67%)0 (0%)
Drives ESPN team id 87 ESPN team id 52
Total 1515
Avg Starting Field Position Own 31Own 28
Plays/Drive 5.498.05
Yards/Drive 34.3343.68
Available Yards % 50%61%
Defensive ESPN team id 87 ESPN team id 52
Scrimmage Plays 7470
Stop Rate 20%41%
Havoc Plays Created 13 (18%)11 (16%)
  Passing 11 (35%)7 (18%)
  Rushing 2 (5%)4 (13%)
TFLs Generated 1010
  Passing 86
  Rushing 24
Sacks Generated 5 (16%)4 (10%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 31
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 87 ESPN team id 52
Turnovers 13
  Fumbles 11
  Fumbles Lost 00
  Fumbles Recovered 11
  Interceptions 13
Turnover Margin 2-2
Expected Turnovers 1.21.7
Expected Turnover Margin 0.4-0.4
Turnover Luck (pts) 7.8-7.8
Special Teams ESPN team id 87 ESPN team id 52
Total Plays 15 13
Total EPA 1.44 -0.38
  Field Goal EPA 2.15 -1.55
  Punting EPA -0.7 0.56
  Kickoff Return EPA 0 0.62

Notre Dame [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Jack Coan 26/35, 366 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT, 4 Scks, 74.9 xQBR, 1.14 DETMER 9.38 0.46 17.94 54% 47.0%
Rush attempts
Chris Tyree 7 carries, 31 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.43 0.23 1.63 71% 8.0%
TEAM 1 carry, -5 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) -5.00 -1.97 -1.97 0% -3.0%
Jack Coan 5 carries, 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.60 -0.53 -2.66 20% -5.0%
Kyren Williams 18 carries, 42 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.33 -0.22 -3.99 39% -5.0%
Pass targets
Kevin Austin Jr. 4 catches (7 targets), 91 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 22.75 1.11 7.78 71% 37.0%
Michael Mayer 9 catches (13 targets), 120 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.33 0.45 5.90 54% 21.0%
Kyren Williams 6 catches (6 targets), 83 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.83 0.85 5.12 67% 22.0%
Joe Wilkins Jr. 1 catch (1 target), 23 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 23.00 3.78 3.78 100% 10.0%
Braden Lenzy 2 catches (3 targets), 39 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 19.50 0.85 2.54 67% 1.0%
Chris Tyree 4 catches (4 targets), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.50 -0.18 -0.70 50% -1.0%

Florida State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
McKenzie Milton 5/7, 48 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 53.9 xQBR, 0.00 DETMER 6.00 0.27 2.16 50% -3.0%
Jordan Travis 9/19, 130 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT, 4 Scks, 36.2 xQBR, 0.81 DETMER 5.65 -0.18 -4.15 26% 4.0%
Rush attempts
Jashaun Corbin 15 carries, 144 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.60 0.69 10.29 53% 20.0%
Treshaun Ward 11 carries, 76 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.91 0.48 5.30 64% 34.0%
Jordan Travis 8 carries, 40 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.10 0.82 25% 4.0%
McKenzie Milton 2 carries, 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.50 0.29 0.59 100% 6.0%
Lawrance Toafili 6 carries, 34 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.67 0.04 0.26 33% -16.0%
TEAM 1 carry, -5 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) -5.00 -0.80 -0.80 0% -4.0%
Pass targets
Keyshawn Helton 4 catches (4 targets), 53 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.25 1.60 6.41 75% 12.0%
Ja'Khi Douglas 3 catches (3 targets), 80 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 26.67 2.11 6.33 67% 23.0%
Andrew Parchment 1 catch (2 targets), 8 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 1.92 3.84 50% 7.0%
Darion Williamson 1 catch (1 target), 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.00 1.21 1.21 100% 6.0%
Ontaria Wilson 1 catch (1 target), -2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -2.00 -0.61 -0.61 0% -2.0%
Lawrance Toafili 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.80 -0.80 0% -1.0%
Malik McClain 1 catch (3 targets), 21 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 21.00 -0.38 -1.13 33% -3.0%
Jashaun Corbin 3 catches (4 targets), 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.46 -1.85 25% 0.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 5:06 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 10 at FSU 11) Jashaun Corbin 89 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) - ND 7, FSU 7 8.40 15.5% 13.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 99

Started Drive at: FSU 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -1.40 = 8.40

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.40)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.5%

Win Probability (After): 29.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:36 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 7 at FSU 40) Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 60 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - ND 17, FSU 20 5.60 27.3% 20.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 99

Started Drive at: FSU 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 0.40 = 5.60

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.60)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.3%

Win Probability (After): 48.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:50 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 17 at ND 24) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 55 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST down - ND 24, FSU 20 5.34 68.8% 14.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 21

Started Drive at: ND 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.82 - -0.52 = 5.34

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.48)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 24, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.8%

Win Probability (After): 83.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:46 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 1 at FSU 41) Michael Mayer 41 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick) - ND 7, FSU 0 5.24 77.0% 11.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.76 = 5.24

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.76)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.0%

Win Probability (After): 88.6%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 13:42 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & Goal at ND 8) Andrew Parchment 8 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Jordan Travis Pass to Keyshawn Helton for Two-Point Conversion) - ND 38, FSU 28 4.43 2.0% 7.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.57 = 4.43

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.43)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.0%

Win Probability (After): 9.6%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 11:52 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 1 at FSU 37) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 24, FSU 20 4.05 58.3% 15.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.95 = 4.05

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.05)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 24, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.3%

Win Probability (After): 74.2%

Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:44 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 1 at FSU 44) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for no gain to the FlaSt 44 - ND 7, FSU 7 -3.86 69.1% -7.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 56

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.49 - 1.37 = -3.86

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.49)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.1%

Win Probability (After): 61.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:21 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 4 at FSU 23) Jack Coan pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 23 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 17, FSU 14 3.78 65.7% 10.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 99

Started Drive at: FSU 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.22 = 3.78

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.78)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.7%

Win Probability (After): 75.7%

Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:06 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 11 at ND 20) McKenzie Milton pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 15 yds to the NDame 5 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 28 2.81 7.2% 7.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 5

Started Drive at: FSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.50 - 2.69 = 2.81

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.31)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-4.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.2%

Win Probability (After): 14.7%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 7:05 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & Goal at FSU 6) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 31, FSU 20 2.78 81.8% 7.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.22 = 2.78

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.22)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 31, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.8%

Win Probability (After): 88.9%

Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
OT ESPN team id 52 (4th & 4 at ND 19) Ryan Fitzgerald 37 yd FG MISSED - ND 38, FSU 38 -2.64 87.3% -34.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 80

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 2.62 = -2.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.02)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.3%

Win Probability (After): 52.5%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:40 ESPN team id 52 (4th & 6 at ND 25) Ryan Fitzgerald 43 yd FG GOOD - ND 38, FSU 38 1.08 25.3% 26.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: FSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.92 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.3%

Win Probability (After): 51.6%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:25 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 6 at ND 29) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 22 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 38 1.49 58.5% 23.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 49

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.12 - 0.63 = 1.49

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.5%

Win Probability (After): 82.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:36 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 7 at FSU 40) Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 60 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - ND 17, FSU 20 5.60 27.3% 20.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 99

Started Drive at: FSU 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 0.40 = 5.60

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.60)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.3%

Win Probability (After): 48.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 10 at FSU 49) Jack Coan pass intercepted Travis Jay return for 5 yds to the FlaSt 16 - ND 38, FSU 38 -0.60 72.2% -17.5%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 84

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.54 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.06)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.2%

Win Probability (After): 54.7%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:45 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 6 at ND 25) McKenzie Milton pass incomplete - ND 38, FSU 35 -1.13 43.7% -16.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: FSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 2.95 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.05)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 35

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.7%

Win Probability (After): 26.8%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 11:52 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 1 at FSU 37) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 24, FSU 20 4.05 58.3% 15.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.95 = 4.05

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.05)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 24, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.3%

Win Probability (After): 74.2%

Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:29 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at ND 41) Treshaun Ward run for 12 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 35 0.89 36.6% 15.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 29

Started Drive at: FSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 2.39 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.61)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 35

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.6%

Win Probability (After): 51.9%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

OT ESPN team id 87 (4th & 8 at FSU 23) Jonathan Doerer 41 yd FG GOOD - ND 41, FSU 38 0.42 85.2% 14.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.58 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.58)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 41, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.2%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (41) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:50 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 17 at ND 24) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 55 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST down - ND 24, FSU 20 5.34 68.8% 14.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 21

Started Drive at: ND 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.82 - -0.52 = 5.34

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.48)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 24, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.8%

Win Probability (After): 83.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 12:46 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 1 at FSU 41) Michael Mayer 41 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick) - ND 7, FSU 0 5.24 77.0% 11.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.76 = 5.24

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.76)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.0%

Win Probability (After): 88.6%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 5:06 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 10 at FSU 11) Jashaun Corbin 89 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) - ND 7, FSU 7 8.40 15.5% 13.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 99

Started Drive at: FSU 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -1.40 = 8.40

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.40)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.5%

Win Probability (After): 29.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:05 ESPN team id 52 (1st & Goal at ND 2) Jordan Travis run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) - ND 7, FSU 14 0.73 43.3% 5.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.27 = 0.73

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.27)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.3%

Win Probability (After): 49.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:02 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 6 at FSU 29) Jonathan Doerer 48 yd FG GOOD - ND 10, FSU 14 1.73 51.7% 10.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 29

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.27 = 1.73

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.73)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 10, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.7%

Win Probability (After): 62.4%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:21 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 4 at FSU 23) Jack Coan pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 23 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 17, FSU 14 3.78 65.7% 10.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 99

Started Drive at: FSU 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.22 = 3.78

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.78)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.7%

Win Probability (After): 75.7%

Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:36 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 7 at FSU 40) Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 60 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - ND 17, FSU 20 5.60 27.3% 20.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 99

Started Drive at: FSU 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 0.40 = 5.60

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.60)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.3%

Win Probability (After): 48.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:52 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 1 at FSU 37) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 24, FSU 20 4.05 58.3% 15.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.95 = 4.05

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.05)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 24, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.3%

Win Probability (After): 74.2%

Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:05 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & Goal at FSU 6) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 31, FSU 20 2.78 81.8% 7.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.22 = 2.78

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.22)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 31, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.8%

Win Probability (After): 88.9%

Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:37 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & Goal at FSU 1) Chris Tyree run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 38, FSU 20 0.60 96.7% 1.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: FSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.40 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): 11 (17.40)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 98.0%

Away Score: 31 (38) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:42 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & Goal at ND 8) Andrew Parchment 8 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Jordan Travis Pass to Keyshawn Helton for Two-Point Conversion) - ND 38, FSU 28 4.43 2.0% 7.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.57 = 4.43

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.43)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.0%

Win Probability (After): 9.6%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 5:36 ESPN team id 52 (1st & Goal at ND 2) Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) - ND 38, FSU 35 1.02 14.8% 11.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: FSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.98 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-4.02)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 35

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.8%

Win Probability (After): 26.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:40 ESPN team id 52 (4th & 6 at ND 25) Ryan Fitzgerald 43 yd FG GOOD - ND 38, FSU 38 1.08 25.3% 26.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: FSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.92 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.3%

Win Probability (After): 51.6%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

OT ESPN team id 87 (4th & 8 at FSU 23) Jonathan Doerer 41 yd FG GOOD - ND 41, FSU 38 0.42 85.2% 14.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.58 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.58)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 41, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.2%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (41) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 87 (Kickoff at ND 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ND 0, FSU 0 0.00 71.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 0, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.2%

Win Probability (After): 71.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:43 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 25) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - ND 0, FSU 0 1.65 76.2% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 50

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.70 - 1.05 = 1.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 0, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.2%

Win Probability (After): 77.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:39 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at 50) NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Zeke Correll) to the NDame 45 - ND 0, FSU 0 -0.84 78.8% -0.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 55

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.99 - 2.83 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.83)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 0, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.8%

Win Probability (After): 78.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:48 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 15 at ND 45) Jack Coan sacked by Jermaine Johnson II for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 43 - ND 0, FSU 0 -0.85 77.2% -1.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 57

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.17 - 2.02 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 0, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.2%

Win Probability (After): 76.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:20 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 17 at ND 43) Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 15 yds to the FlaSt 42 - ND 0, FSU 0 1.43 75.7% 2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 42

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.60 - 1.17 = 1.43

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 0, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.7%

Win Probability (After): 78.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:59 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 2 at FSU 42) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 1 yd to the FlaSt 41 - ND 0, FSU 0 -0.76 80.2% -3.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 41

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - 2.57 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 0, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.2%

Win Probability (After): 77.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:46 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 1 at FSU 41) Michael Mayer 41 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick) - ND 7, FSU 0 5.24 77.0% 11.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.76 = 5.24

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.76)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.0%

Win Probability (After): 88.6%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 12:49 ESPN team id 52 (Kickoff at FSU 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 64 yds , Corey Wren return for 19 yds to the FlaSt 20 - ND 7, FSU 0 -0.27 15.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80

Started Drive at: FSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.45 - -0.18 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.18)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.8%

Win Probability (After): 15.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:22 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at FSU 20) Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 15 - ND 7, FSU 0 -1.21 14.9% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 85

Started Drive at: FSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.67 - -0.46 = -1.21

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.46)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.9%

Win Probability (After): 14.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:00 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 15 at FSU 15) Travis, Jordan pass complete to Helton, Keyshawn for 10 yards to the FLORIDAST25, PENALTY FLORIDAST ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the FLORIDAST10, NO PLAY. - ND 7, FSU 0 -0.48 15.4% -1.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 90

Started Drive at: FSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.08 - -1.60 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.60)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.4%

Win Probability (After): 13.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:42 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 20 at FSU 10) Jordan Travis pass incomplete - ND 7, FSU 0 -0.73 13.9% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90

Started Drive at: FSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.84 - -2.11 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.11)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.9%

Win Probability (After): 14.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:37 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 20 at FSU 10) Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Lawrance Toafili - ND 7, FSU 0 -0.80 13.3% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90

Started Drive at: FSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.67 - -2.88 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.88)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-10.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.3%

Win Probability (After): 12.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:30 ESPN team id 52 (4th & 20 at FSU 10) Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 46 - ND 7, FSU 0 0.27 12.3% -1.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 54

Started Drive at: FSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.33 - -3.60 = 0.27

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-10.60)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.33)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.3%

Win Probability (After): 11.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 11:14 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 46) Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 48 - ND 7, FSU 0 0.11 88.9% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 48

Started Drive at: ND 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.46 - 3.35 = 0.11

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.35)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.9%

Win Probability (After): 89.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:44 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 4 at FSU 48) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr. - ND 7, FSU 0 -0.91 88.8% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48

Started Drive at: ND 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 3.50 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.50)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.8%

Win Probability (After): 88.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:41 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 4 at FSU 48) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael Mayer - ND 7, FSU 0 -1.90 88.4% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48

Started Drive at: ND 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.73 - 2.63 = -1.90

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.63)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.4%

Win Probability (After): 87.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:34 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 4 at FSU 48) Jay Bramblett punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 15 - ND 7, FSU 0 -0.32 86.9% -2.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 85

Started Drive at: ND 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 0.75 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.75)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.43)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.9%

Win Probability (After): 84.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:13 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at FSU 15) Treshaun Ward run for no gain to the FlaSt 15 - ND 7, FSU 0 -0.59 15.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 85

Started Drive at: FSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.10 - -0.51 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.51)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.3%

Win Probability (After): 15.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:40 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 10 at FSU 15) Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 19 - ND 7, FSU 0 -0.76 15.4% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 81

Started Drive at: FSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.73 - -0.98 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.98)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.4%

Win Probability (After): 14.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:35 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 6 at FSU 19) Jordan Travis sacked by Jayson Ademilola and JD Bertrand for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaSt 11 - ND 7, FSU 0 -1.70 14.2% -1.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 89

Started Drive at: FSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.36 - -1.65 = -1.70

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.65)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-10.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.2%

Win Probability (After): 13.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:20 ESPN team id 52 (4th & 14 at FSU 11) FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 6 - ND 7, FSU 0 -0.29 12.4% -0.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 94

Started Drive at: FSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.75 - -3.46 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-10.46)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-10.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.4%

Win Probability (After): 12.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:02 ESPN team id 52 (4th & 19 at FSU 6) Alex Mastromanno punt for 53 yds , Kyren Williams returns for 4 yds to the NDame 45 - ND 7, FSU 0 0.45 12.2% 0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 55

Started Drive at: FSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.30 - -3.74 = 0.45

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-10.74)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.30)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.2%

Win Probability (After): 12.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 7:45 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 45) Chris Tyree run for 1 yd to the NDame 46 - ND 7, FSU 0 -0.51 90.1% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 54

Started Drive at: ND 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - 3.26 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.26)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.1%

Win Probability (After): 89.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:10 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 9 at ND 46) Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 9 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST down - ND 7, FSU 0 0.96 89.1% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 45

Started Drive at: ND 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.74 - 2.78 = 0.96

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.78)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.1%

Win Probability (After): 90.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:52 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at FSU 45) Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 49 - ND 7, FSU 0 -1.25 89.6% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 49

Started Drive at: ND 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.54 - 3.79 = -1.25

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.79)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.6%

Win Probability (After): 88.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:09 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 14 at FSU 49) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 7 yds to the FlaSt 42 - ND 7, FSU 0 -0.15 88.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 42

Started Drive at: ND 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.38 - 2.53 = -0.15

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.53)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.7%

Win Probability (After): 88.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:38 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 7 at FSU 42) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael Mayer - ND 7, FSU 0 -1.84 87.7% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 42

Started Drive at: ND 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - 2.36 = -1.84

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.36)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.7%

Win Probability (After): 86.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:31 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 7 at FSU 42) Jay Bramblett punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 11 - ND 7, FSU 0 0.12 86.1% -2.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 89

Started Drive at: ND 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.69 - 0.57 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.57)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.69)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.1%

Win Probability (After): 84.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 5:25 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at FSU 11) Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Malik McClain - ND 7, FSU 0 -0.71 16.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 89

Started Drive at: FSU 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.40 - -0.69 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.69)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.0%

Win Probability (After): 15.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:06 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 10 at FSU 11) Jashaun Corbin 89 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) - ND 7, FSU 7 8.40 15.5% 13.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 99

Started Drive at: FSU 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -1.40 = 8.40

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.40)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.5%

Win Probability (After): 29.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:12 ESPN team id 87 (Kickoff at ND 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ND 7, FSU 7 0.00 73.2% 1.4%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 1.07 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.2%

Win Probability (After): 74.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:50 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 25) Kyren Williams run for no gain to the NDame 25 - ND 7, FSU 7 -0.63 74.7% -2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 1.07 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.7%

Win Probability (After): 71.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:23 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at ND 25) Kyren Williams run for 7 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NDame 47 for a 1ST down - ND 7, FSU 7 2.17 73.4% 4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 53

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.61 - 0.44 = 2.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.44)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.4%

Win Probability (After): 77.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:52 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 47) Tyree, Chris rush for 1 yard to the NOTREDAME48, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding 10 yards to the NOTREDAME37, NO PLAY. - ND 7, FSU 7 -1.05 77.5% -1.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 63

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 2.60 = -1.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.60)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.5%

Win Probability (After): 75.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:33 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 20 at ND 37) Chris Tyree run for 12 yds to the NDame 49 - ND 7, FSU 7 0.52 75.3% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 51

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.06 - 1.54 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.3%

Win Probability (After): 77.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:55 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 8 at ND 49) Chris Tyree run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 45 - ND 7, FSU 7 0.31 74.3% 2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 45

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.37 - 2.06 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.3%

Win Probability (After): 77.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:20 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 2 at FSU 45) Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 44 - ND 7, FSU 7 -1.03 74.9% -2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 44

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 2.38 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.38)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.9%

Win Probability (After): 72.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:44 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 1 at FSU 44) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for no gain to the FlaSt 44 - ND 7, FSU 7 -3.86 69.1% -7.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 56

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.49 - 1.37 = -3.86

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.49)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.1%

Win Probability (After): 61.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 1:30 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at FSU 44) Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 45 - ND 7, FSU 7 -0.65 37.6% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 55

Started Drive at: FSU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.90 - 2.55 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.55)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.6%

Win Probability (After): 36.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:01 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 9 at FSU 45) Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 46 - ND 7, FSU 7 -0.83 36.1% -2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 54

Started Drive at: FSU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 1.93 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.93)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.1%

Win Probability (After): 33.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:25 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 8 at FSU 46) Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 9 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST down - ND 7, FSU 7 2.12 33.0% 5.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 45

Started Drive at: FSU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.22 - 1.10 = 2.12

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.0%

Win Probability (After): 38.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at ND 45) Jordan Travis sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard line - ND 7, FSU 7 -1.58 38.1% -2.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 50

Started Drive at: FSU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.62 - 3.20 = -1.58

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.20)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.1%

Win Probability (After): 35.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:47 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 15 at 50) Jordan Travis sacked by Rylie Mills for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 45 - ND 7, FSU 7 -1.25 32.1% -3.8%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 55

Started Drive at: FSU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.39 - 1.64 = -1.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.1%

Win Probability (After): 28.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:17 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 20 at FSU 45) Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 12 yds to the NDame 43 - ND 7, FSU 7 -0.57 29.2% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 43

Started Drive at: FSU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.16 - 0.41 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.41)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.2%

Win Probability (After): 27.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:42 ESPN team id 52 (4th & 8 at ND 43) Alex Mastromanno punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 7 - ND 7, FSU 7 0.21 28.6% 0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 93

Started Drive at: FSU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - -0.16 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.05)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.6%

Win Probability (After): 29.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:30 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 7) Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 11 - ND 7, FSU 7 -0.12 69.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 89

Started Drive at: ND 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.17 - -0.05 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.5%

Win Probability (After): 69.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:07 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 6 at ND 11) Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 12 - ND 7, FSU 7 -0.83 68.8% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 88

Started Drive at: ND 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.95 - -0.13 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.8%

Win Probability (After): 67.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:30 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 5 at ND 12) TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 7 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NDame Jack Coan - ND 7, FSU 7 -1.97 67.2% -2.8%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 93

Started Drive at: ND 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.86 - -0.90 = -1.97

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.90)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.2%

Win Probability (After): 64.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:44 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 10 at ND 7) Jay Bramblett punt for 38 yds, downed at the NDame 45 - ND 7, FSU 7 -0.37 64.7% -0.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 45

Started Drive at: ND 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.21 - -2.84 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.84)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.21)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.7%

Win Probability (After): 64.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:30 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at ND 45) Jordan Travis pass complete to Malik McClain for 21 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST down - ND 7, FSU 7 1.12 37.3% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 24

Started Drive at: ND 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.36 - 3.24 = 1.12

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.24)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.3%

Win Probability (After): 35.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:13 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at ND 24) Jordan Travis run for 2 yds to the NDame 22 - ND 7, FSU 7 -0.29 39.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 22

Started Drive at: ND 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 4.37 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.1%

Win Probability (After): 38.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:45 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 8 at ND 22) Lawrance Toafili run for 20 yds to the NDame 2 for a 1ST down - ND 7, FSU 7 2.21 39.2% 3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 2

Started Drive at: ND 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.27 - 4.07 = 2.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (6.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.2%

Win Probability (After): 42.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:05 ESPN team id 52 (1st & Goal at ND 2) Jordan Travis run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) - ND 7, FSU 14 0.73 43.3% 5.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.27 = 0.73

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.27)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.3%

Win Probability (After): 49.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:05 ESPN team id 87 (Kickoff at ND 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ND 7, FSU 14 0.00 55.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.60 - 0.60 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.40)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.5%

Win Probability (After): 55.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:53 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 25) Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 31 - ND 7, FSU 14 0.43 54.8% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 0.59 = 0.43

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.41)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.8%

Win Probability (After): 55.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:20 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 4 at ND 31) Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 34 - ND 7, FSU 14 0.19 53.7% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 66

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.05 - 0.86 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.14)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.7%

Win Probability (After): 54.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:57 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 1 at ND 34) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 8 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST down - ND 7, FSU 14 1.00 52.5% 2.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 58

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.89 - 0.89 = 1.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.11)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.5%

Win Probability (After): 55.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:39 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 42) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 15 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST down - ND 7, FSU 14 1.04 52.3% 5.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 43

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.86 - 1.81 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.19)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.3%

Win Probability (After): 58.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:10 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at FSU 43) Jack Coan run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 39 - ND 7, FSU 14 -0.08 55.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 39

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.69 - 2.77 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.23)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.0%

Win Probability (After): 54.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:50 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 6 at FSU 39) Chris Tyree run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST down - ND 7, FSU 14 0.69 54.6% 4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 33

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.40 - 2.72 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.28)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.6%

Win Probability (After): 58.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:11 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at FSU 33) Jack Coan sacked by Jermaine Johnson II for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 35 - ND 7, FSU 14 -1.48 58.9% -7.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 35

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.04 - 3.52 = -1.48

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.48)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.9%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:30 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 12 at FSU 35) Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 33 - ND 7, FSU 14 -0.11 53.0% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 33

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.19 - 2.30 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.70)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.0%

Win Probability (After): 52.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:16 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 10 at FSU 33) FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Keir Thomas) to the FlaSt 28 - ND 7, FSU 14 0.61 53.9% 2.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 28

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.93 - 2.32 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.68)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.9%

Win Probability (After): 55.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:30 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 5 at FSU 28) Jack Coan run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 29 - ND 7, FSU 14 -1.58 56.4% -4.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 29

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - 2.94 = -1.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.06)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 7, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.4%

Win Probability (After): 52.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:02 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 6 at FSU 29) Jonathan Doerer 48 yd FG GOOD - ND 10, FSU 14 1.73 51.7% 10.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 29

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.27 = 1.73

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.73)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 10, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.7%

Win Probability (After): 62.4%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:02 ESPN team id 52 (Kickoff at FSU 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 65 yds , Travis Jay return for 20 yds to the FlaSt 20 - ND 10, FSU 14 -0.17 44.2% -1.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80

Started Drive at: FSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 1.31 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.31)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 10, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:57 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at FSU 20) FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Ontaria Wilson) to the FlaSt 15 - ND 10, FSU 14 -0.58 43.1% -0.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 85

Started Drive at: FSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 1.13 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.13)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 10, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.1%

Win Probability (After): 42.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:56 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 15 at FSU 15) FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Dillan Gibbons) to the FlaSt 10 - ND 10, FSU 14 -0.43 41.9% -1.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 90

Started Drive at: FSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.08 - 0.52 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.52)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 10, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.9%

Win Probability (After): 40.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:45 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 20 at FSU 10) Jashaun Corbin run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 16 - ND 10, FSU 14 -0.08 41.1% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 84

Started Drive at: FSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 0.09 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.09)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 10, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.1%

Win Probability (After): 39.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:20 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 14 at FSU 16) Jordan Travis run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 22 - ND 10, FSU 14 -0.12 40.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 78

Started Drive at: FSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.08 - 0.04 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.04)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 10, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.6%

Win Probability (After): 40.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:45 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 8 at FSU 22) Jordan Travis pass intercepted Kyle Hamilton return for no gain to the FlaSt 48 - ND 10, FSU 14 -2.54 40.4% -6.8%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 48

Started Drive at: FSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.65 - -0.11 = -2.54

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.89)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.35)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ND 10, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.4%

Win Probability (After): 33.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:30 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at FSU 48) Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 44 - ND 10, FSU 14 0.10 65.3% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 44

Started Drive at: FSU 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.45 - 2.36 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.64)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 10, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.3%

Win Probability (After): 65.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:15 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 6 at FSU 44) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 15 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST down - ND 10, FSU 14 1.40 64.9% 3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 29

Started Drive at: FSU 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.60 - 2.20 = 1.40

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.80)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 10, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.9%

Win Probability (After): 67.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:06 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at FSU 29) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr. - ND 10, FSU 14 -0.42 67.5% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 29

Started Drive at: FSU 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.42 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.58)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 10, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.5%

Win Probability (After): 66.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:50 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at FSU 29) Jack Coan run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 23 - ND 10, FSU 14 0.39 65.9% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 23

Started Drive at: FSU 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 2.94 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.06)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 10, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.9%

Win Probability (After): 66.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:21 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 4 at FSU 23) Jack Coan pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 23 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 17, FSU 14 3.78 65.7% 10.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 99

Started Drive at: FSU 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.22 = 3.78

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.78)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.7%

Win Probability (After): 75.7%

Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:21 ESPN team id 52 (Kickoff at FSU 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ND 17, FSU 14 0.00 26.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 1.12 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.88)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.7%

Win Probability (After): 26.7%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:10 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at FSU 25) TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Treshaun Ward - ND 17, FSU 14 -0.80 26.7% -4.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 80

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.28 - 1.08 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.92)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.7%

Win Probability (After): 22.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:43 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 15 at FSU 20) Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 18 - ND 17, FSU 14 -0.61 22.8% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 82

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.42 - 0.19 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.81)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.8%

Win Probability (After): 20.6%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:39 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 17 at FSU 18) Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 01:39 - ND 17, FSU 14 0.00 20.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 82

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.42 - -0.42 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.42)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.8%

Win Probability (After): 20.8%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:35 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 17 at FSU 18) Treshaun Ward run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 30 - ND 17, FSU 14 -0.06 21.7% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 70

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.70 - -0.64 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.64)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.7%

Win Probability (After): 22.0%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:34 ESPN team id 52 (4th & 5 at FSU 30) Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 01:34 - ND 17, FSU 14 0.00 21.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.70 - -0.70 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.70)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.9%

Win Probability (After): 21.9%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:28 ESPN team id 52 (4th & 5 at FSU 30) Alex Mastromanno punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 32 - ND 17, FSU 14 -0.37 21.6% 3.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 68

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.06 - -0.69 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.69)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.06)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ND 17, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.6%

Win Probability (After): 24.7%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:13 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 32) Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 1 yd to the NDame 33 - ND 17, FSU 14 -0.45 75.5% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 67

Started Drive at: ND 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 1.10 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.10)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.5%

Win Probability (After): 74.4%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:58 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 9 at ND 33) Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 4 yds to the NDame 37 - ND 17, FSU 14 0.03 74.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 63

Started Drive at: ND 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.75 - 0.72 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.72)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.7%

Win Probability (After): 74.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:57 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 5 at ND 37) Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 00:57 - ND 17, FSU 14 0.00 74.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: ND 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.75 - 0.75 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.75)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.8%

Win Probability (After): 74.8%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:50 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 5 at ND 37) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy - ND 17, FSU 14 -0.64 75.1% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: ND 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.04 - 0.68 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.68)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.1%

Win Probability (After): 72.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:44 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 5 at ND 37) Jay Bramblett punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 26 - ND 17, FSU 14 -0.44 72.7% 0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 74

Started Drive at: ND 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.50 - -0.05 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.95)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.50)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ND 17, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.7%

Win Probability (After): 72.9%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:34 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at FSU 26) Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 10 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST down - ND 17, FSU 14 0.29 26.5% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 64

Started Drive at: FSU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.72 - 0.43 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.57)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.5%

Win Probability (After): 27.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q2 0:10 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at FSU 36) Jordan Travis sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 13 yards to the FlaSt 23 - ND 17, FSU 14 -0.17 27.3% 0.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 77

Started Drive at: FSU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - 0.17 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.83)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.3%

Win Probability (After): 27.6%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 52 (Kickoff at FSU 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 61 yds , Corey Wren return for 33 yds to the FlaSt 37 - ND 17, FSU 14 1.06 27.6% 3.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 63

Started Drive at: FSU 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.50 - 0.44 = 1.06

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.56)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.6%

Win Probability (After): 30.7%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:45 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at FSU 37) Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 39 - ND 17, FSU 14 -0.69 31.8% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 61

Started Drive at: FSU 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 1.64 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.36)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.8%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:14 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 8 at FSU 39) Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 40 - ND 17, FSU 14 -0.70 30.3% -2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 60

Started Drive at: FSU 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.36 - 1.06 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.94)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.3%

Win Probability (After): 27.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:36 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 7 at FSU 40) Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 60 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - ND 17, FSU 20 5.60 27.3% 20.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 99

Started Drive at: FSU 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 0.40 = 5.60

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.60)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.3%

Win Probability (After): 48.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:36 ESPN team id 87 (Kickoff at ND 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 61 yds for a touchback - ND 17, FSU 20 0.00 60.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 0.63 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.37)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.9%

Win Probability (After): 60.9%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:36 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 25) Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 13:36 - ND 17, FSU 20 0.00 60.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 0.63 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.37)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.9%

Win Probability (After): 60.9%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:20 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 25) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 29 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST down - ND 17, FSU 20 2.28 56.4% 6.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 46

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 0.63 = 2.28

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.37)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.4%

Win Probability (After): 62.6%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:55 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at FSU 46) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 6 yds to the FlaSt 40 - ND 17, FSU 20 0.36 61.9% 2.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 40

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.25 - 2.89 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.11)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.9%

Win Probability (After): 64.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:30 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 4 at FSU 40) Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 37 - ND 17, FSU 20 -0.24 61.3% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 37

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.24 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.24)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 17, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.3%

Win Probability (After): 62.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:52 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 1 at FSU 37) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 24, FSU 20 4.05 58.3% 15.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.95 = 4.05

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.05)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 24, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.3%

Win Probability (After): 74.2%

Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:52 ESPN team id 52 (Kickoff at FSU 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ND 24, FSU 20 0.00 28.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - 0.52 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.48)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 24, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.9%

Win Probability (After): 28.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 11:41 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at FSU 25) Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27 - ND 24, FSU 20 -0.63 29.9% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 0.64 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.36)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 24, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.9%

Win Probability (After): 28.7%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 11:15 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 8 at FSU 27) Jordan Travis pass intercepted Kyle Hamilton return for no gain to the NDame 27 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kyle Hamilton) to the NDame 31 - ND 24, FSU 20 -2.05 28.8% -5.2%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 69

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.04 - 0.10 = -2.05

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.99)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.04)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ND 24, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.8%

Win Probability (After): 23.6%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:59 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 31) Kyren Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 29 - ND 24, FSU 20 -1.27 76.5% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 71

Started Drive at: ND 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - 2.09 = -1.27

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.09)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 24, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.5%

Win Probability (After): 74.6%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:20 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 12 at ND 29) Jack Coan sacked by Quashon Fuller for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 24 - ND 24, FSU 20 -1.68 74.9% -4.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 76

Started Drive at: ND 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.72 - 0.96 = -1.68

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.96)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 24, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.9%

Win Probability (After): 70.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:50 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 17 at ND 24) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 55 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST down - ND 24, FSU 20 5.34 68.8% 14.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 21

Started Drive at: ND 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.82 - -0.52 = 5.34

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.48)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 24, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.8%

Win Probability (After): 83.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:20 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at FSU 21) NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Michael Carmody) to the FlaSt 26 - ND 24, FSU 20 -0.73 82.0% -2.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 26

Started Drive at: ND 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.05 - 4.78 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.78)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 24, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.0%

Win Probability (After): 79.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:53 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 15 at FSU 26) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 17 yds to the FlaSt 9 for a 1ST down - ND 24, FSU 20 1.39 80.7% 2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 9

Started Drive at: ND 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.40 - 4.00 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.00)

Score Difference (End): 4 (9.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 24, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.7%

Win Probability (After): 83.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:25 ESPN team id 87 (1st & Goal at FSU 9) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 1 yd to the FlaSt 8 - ND 24, FSU 20 -0.54 83.2% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 8

Started Drive at: ND 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.84 - 5.38 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 4 (9.38)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 24, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.2%

Win Probability (After): 82.5%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:40 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & Goal at FSU 8) Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 6 - ND 24, FSU 20 -0.65 82.6% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 6

Started Drive at: ND 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.18 - 4.84 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.84)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 24, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.6%

Win Probability (After): 81.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:05 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & Goal at FSU 6) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 31, FSU 20 2.78 81.8% 7.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.22 = 2.78

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.22)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 31, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.8%

Win Probability (After): 88.9%

Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:05 ESPN team id 52 (Kickoff at FSU 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ND 31, FSU 20 0.00 10.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - -0.03 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.03)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 31, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.4%

Win Probability (After): 10.4%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 6:59 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at FSU 25) Jordan Travis pass incomplete - ND 31, FSU 20 -0.51 10.6% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.60 - -0.08 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.08)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 31, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.6%

Win Probability (After): 9.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 6:48 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 10 at FSU 25) Jashaun Corbin run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30 - ND 31, FSU 20 -0.18 9.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.83 - -0.65 = -0.18

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.65)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 31, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.3%

Win Probability (After): 9.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 6:10 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 5 at FSU 30) Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 33 - ND 31, FSU 20 -0.94 9.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 67

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.70 - -0.77 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.77)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-12.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 31, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.0%

Win Probability (After): 8.6%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 5:39 ESPN team id 52 (4th & 2 at FSU 33) Jordan Travis pass intercepted Clarence Lewis return for 4 yds to the FlaSt 32 - ND 31, FSU 20 -2.75 8.5% -2.5%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 32

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.48 - -1.72 = -2.75

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-12.72)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.48)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ND 31, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.5%

Win Probability (After): 6.0%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 5:31 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at FSU 32) Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 24 yds to the FlaSt 8 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Face Mask (4 yards) (4 Yards) to the FlaSt 4 for a 1ST down - ND 31, FSU 20 1.75 94.7% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 4

Started Drive at: FSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.23 - 4.48 = 1.75

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.48)

Score Difference (End): 11 (17.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 31, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:44 ESPN team id 87 (1st & Goal at FSU 4) Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 1 - ND 31, FSU 20 0.14 96.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 1

Started Drive at: FSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.38 - 6.24 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): 11 (17.24)

Score Difference (End): 11 (17.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 31, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:37 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & Goal at FSU 1) Chris Tyree run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 38, FSU 20 0.60 96.7% 1.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: FSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.40 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): 11 (17.40)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 98.0%

Away Score: 31 (38) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:37 ESPN team id 52 (Kickoff at FSU 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ND 38, FSU 20 0.00 2.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.51 - -0.51 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.51)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.4%

Win Probability (After): 2.4%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:33 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at FSU 25) Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Andrew Parchment - ND 38, FSU 20 -0.60 2.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.10 - -0.50 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.50)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-19.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.4%

Win Probability (After): 2.3%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:20 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 10 at FSU 25) Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 17 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 20 2.06 2.2% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 58

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - -1.10 = 2.06

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-19.10)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.2%

Win Probability (After): 2.7%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:50 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at FSU 42) Jordan Travis run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 45 - ND 38, FSU 20 -0.36 2.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 55

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - 0.94 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.06)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.5%

Win Probability (After): 2.4%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:25 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 7 at FSU 45) Treshaun Ward run for 19 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 20 2.22 2.6% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 36

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 0.60 = 2.22

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.40)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-15.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.6%

Win Probability (After): 3.4%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:06 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at ND 36) Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the NDame 34 - ND 38, FSU 20 -0.47 3.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 34

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.34 - 2.81 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-15.19)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-15.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.4%

Win Probability (After): 3.1%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:30 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 8 at ND 34) Treshaun Ward run for 6 yds to the NDame 28 - ND 38, FSU 20 0.65 2.8% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 28

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.97 - 2.32 = 0.65

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-15.68)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-15.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.8%

Win Probability (After): 3.5%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:19 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 2 at ND 28) Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Malik McClain - ND 38, FSU 20 -1.53 3.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 28

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.45 - 2.98 = -1.53

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-15.02)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-16.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.0%

Win Probability (After): 2.6%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:13 ESPN team id 52 (4th & 2 at ND 28) Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 20 2.29 2.6% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 24

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.75 - 1.46 = 2.29

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-16.54)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-14.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.6%

Win Probability (After): 3.6%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:30 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at ND 24) Jashaun Corbin run for 9 yds to the NDame 15 - ND 38, FSU 20 1.31 3.3% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 15

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.09 - 3.78 = 1.31

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.22)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-12.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.3%

Win Probability (After): 4.1%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:13 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 1 at ND 15) Jashaun Corbin run for no gain to the NDame 15 - ND 38, FSU 20 -0.51 4.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.59 - 5.10 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-12.90)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-13.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.3%

Win Probability (After): 4.1%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:25 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 1 at ND 15) Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the NDame 14 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 20 0.22 3.4% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 14

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.79 - 4.56 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-13.44)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-13.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.4%

Win Probability (After): 4.2%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:10 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at ND 14) Treshaun Ward run for 13 yds to the NDame 1 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 20 1.60 3.4% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 1

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.37 - 4.77 = 1.60

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-13.23)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-11.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.4%

Win Probability (After): 4.7%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 52 (1st & Goal at ND 1) Jordan Travis run for no gain to the NDame 1 - ND 38, FSU 20 -0.21 4.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 1

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.08 - 6.29 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-11.71)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-11.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.5%

Win Probability (After): 4.5%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:55 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & Goal at ND 1) Jashaun Corbin run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 3 - ND 38, FSU 20 -1.45 4.1% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 3

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.60 - 6.05 = -1.45

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-11.95)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-13.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.1%

Win Probability (After): 3.2%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:07 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & Goal at ND 3) FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Baveon Johnson) to the NDame 8 - ND 38, FSU 20 -0.98 3.2% -0.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 8

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.63 - 4.61 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-13.39)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-14.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.2%

Win Probability (After): 2.8%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:55 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & Goal at ND 8) Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 13:55 - ND 38, FSU 20 0.00 2.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.63 - 3.63 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.37)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-14.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 20

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.3%

Win Probability (After): 2.3%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 13:42 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & Goal at ND 8) Andrew Parchment 8 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Jordan Travis Pass to Keyshawn Helton for Two-Point Conversion) - ND 38, FSU 28 4.43 2.0% 7.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99

Started Drive at: FSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.57 = 4.43

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.43)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.0%

Win Probability (After): 9.6%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 13:47 ESPN team id 87 (Kickoff at ND 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ND 38, FSU 28 0.00 93.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 1.95 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.95)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.4%

Win Probability (After): 93.4%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:42 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 25) Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 27 - ND 38, FSU 28 -0.47 93.4% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 1.95 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.95)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.4%

Win Probability (After): 92.9%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:04 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 8 at ND 27) Jack Coan run for 4 yds to the NDame 31 - ND 38, FSU 28 -0.08 93.4% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 69

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.32 - 1.40 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.40)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.4%

Win Probability (After): 92.7%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:31 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 4 at ND 31) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 6 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 28 1.46 93.1% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 63

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.62 - 1.16 = 1.46

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.16)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.1%

Win Probability (After): 93.9%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:57 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 37) Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 40 - ND 38, FSU 28 -0.50 93.4% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 60

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 2.67 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.67)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.4%

Win Probability (After): 93.7%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:24 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 7 at ND 40) Kyren Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 38 - ND 38, FSU 28 -1.02 93.9% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 62

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 2.37 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.37)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.9%

Win Probability (After): 92.6%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:53 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 9 at ND 38) Jack Coan run for no gain to the NDame 38 - ND 38, FSU 28 -1.32 92.6% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 1.33 = -1.32

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.33)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.6%

Win Probability (After): 91.9%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:19 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 9 at ND 38) Jay Bramblett punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 12 - ND 38, FSU 28 0.16 92.6% -2.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 88

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.17 - 0.01 = 0.16

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.01)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.17)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.4%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:12 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at FSU 12) Lawrance Toafili run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 28 0.57 9.2% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 78

Started Drive at: FSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - -0.04 = 0.57

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.04)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.2%

Win Probability (After): 9.7%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 9:55 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at FSU 22) Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 23 - ND 38, FSU 28 -0.50 9.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 77

Started Drive at: FSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 0.52 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.48)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.7%

Win Probability (After): 9.4%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 9:30 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 9 at FSU 23) Jordan Travis run for 25 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 28 2.43 8.0% 3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 52

Started Drive at: FSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - -0.03 = 2.43

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.03)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.0%

Win Probability (After): 11.3%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 9:09 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at FSU 48) Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jashaun Corbin - ND 38, FSU 28 -0.46 11.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: FSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 2.33 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.67)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.1%

Win Probability (After): 10.5%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 9:02 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 10 at FSU 48) McKenzie Milton pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 22 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 28 1.83 9.9% 4.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 30

Started Drive at: FSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.65 - 1.82 = 1.83

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.18)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.9%

Win Probability (After): 13.8%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 8:39 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at ND 30) McKenzie Milton sacked by Kurt Hinish for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 33 - ND 38, FSU 28 -1.14 12.3% -1.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 33

Started Drive at: FSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.46 - 3.59 = -1.14

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.41)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.3%

Win Probability (After): 11.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 7:36 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 13 at ND 33) Jashaun Corbin run for 9 yds to the NDame 24 - ND 38, FSU 28 0.82 9.0% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 24

Started Drive at: FSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.16 - 2.35 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.65)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.0%

Win Probability (After): 11.7%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 7:28 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 4 at ND 24) Jashaun Corbin run for 5 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 28 1.15 10.3% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 19

Started Drive at: FSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.24 - 3.10 = 1.15

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.90)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.3%

Win Probability (After): 13.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 7:07 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at ND 19) McKenzie Milton pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 21 - ND 38, FSU 28 -1.10 12.0% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 21

Started Drive at: FSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.22 - 4.32 = -1.10

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.68)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.0%

Win Probability (After): 10.2%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 6:34 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 12 at ND 21) McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 1 yd to the NDame 20 - ND 38, FSU 28 -0.47 8.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 20

Started Drive at: FSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.76 - 3.24 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.76)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.8%

Win Probability (After): 8.7%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 6:06 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 11 at ND 20) McKenzie Milton pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 15 yds to the NDame 5 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 28 2.81 7.2% 7.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 5

Started Drive at: FSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.50 - 2.69 = 2.81

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.31)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-4.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.2%

Win Probability (After): 14.7%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 5:54 ESPN team id 52 (1st & Goal at ND 5) NOTRE DAME Penalty, Substitution Infraction (3 Yards) to the NDame 2 - ND 38, FSU 28 0.50 13.8% 2.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 2

Started Drive at: FSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.99 - 5.48 = 0.50

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-4.52)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-4.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.8%

Win Probability (After): 16.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 5:36 ESPN team id 52 (1st & Goal at ND 2) Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) - ND 38, FSU 35 1.02 14.8% 11.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: FSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.98 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-4.02)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 35

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.8%

Win Probability (After): 26.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 5:36 ESPN team id 87 (Kickoff at ND 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ND 38, FSU 35 0.00 79.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 1.12 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.12)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 35

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.0%

Win Probability (After): 79.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:30 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 25) Coan, Jack pass incomplete, PENALTY FLORIDAST offside 5 yards to the NOTREDAME30, NO PLAY. - ND 38, FSU 35 0.71 79.2% 1.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 1.12 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.12)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 35

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.5%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:22 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 5 at ND 30) Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 31 - ND 38, FSU 35 -0.60 80.9% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 69

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.27 - 1.87 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.87)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 35

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.4%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:01 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 4 at ND 31) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael Mayer - ND 38, FSU 35 -0.76 80.2% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - 1.41 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.41)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 35

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.2%

Win Probability (After): 77.2%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:49 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 4 at ND 31) Jack Coan sacked by Keir Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 24 - ND 38, FSU 35 -1.86 78.8% -13.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 76

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.23 - 0.63 = -1.86

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.63)

Score Difference (End): 3 (1.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 35

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.8%

Win Probability (After): 65.8%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:15 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 11 at ND 24) Jay Bramblett punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 29 - ND 38, FSU 35 0.15 65.2% 3.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 71

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.13 - -1.28 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): 3 (1.72)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.87)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ND 38, FSU 35

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.2%

Win Probability (After): 68.3%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:07 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at FSU 29) Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 33 - ND 38, FSU 35 -0.31 30.5% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 67

Started Drive at: FSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.78 - 1.09 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.91)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 35

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.5%

Win Probability (After): 29.9%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 3:51 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 6 at FSU 33) Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 37 - ND 38, FSU 35 0.14 30.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 63

Started Drive at: FSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 0.88 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.12)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 35

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.5%

Win Probability (After): 30.7%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 3:33 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 2 at FSU 37) McKenzie Milton pass complete to Darion Williamson for 12 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 35 1.21 30.4% 6.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 51

Started Drive at: FSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.16 - 0.95 = 1.21

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.05)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 35

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.4%

Win Probability (After): 36.6%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 3:10 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at FSU 49) McKenzie Milton run for 5 yds to the NDame 46 - ND 38, FSU 35 0.32 33.0% 4.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 46

Started Drive at: FSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.28 - 1.96 = 0.32

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.04)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 35

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.0%

Win Probability (After): 37.3%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:43 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 5 at ND 46) Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 35 0.56 32.5% 5.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 41

Started Drive at: FSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.53 - 1.97 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.03)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 35

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.5%

Win Probability (After): 38.1%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:29 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at ND 41) Treshaun Ward run for 12 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 35 0.89 36.6% 15.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 29

Started Drive at: FSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 2.39 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.61)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 35

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.6%

Win Probability (After): 51.9%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:58 ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at ND 29) McKenzie Milton run for 4 yds to the NDame 25 - ND 38, FSU 35 0.27 52.6% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 25

Started Drive at: FSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.53 - 3.27 = 0.27

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.27)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 35

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 54.2%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:22 ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 6 at ND 25) Lawrance Toafili run for no gain to the NDame 25 - ND 38, FSU 35 -0.50 55.7% -14.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: FSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.88 - 3.38 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.38)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 35

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.7%

Win Probability (After): 41.4%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:45 ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 6 at ND 25) McKenzie Milton pass incomplete - ND 38, FSU 35 -1.13 43.7% -16.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: FSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 2.95 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.05)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 35

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.7%

Win Probability (After): 26.8%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:40 ESPN team id 52 (4th & 6 at ND 25) Ryan Fitzgerald 43 yd FG GOOD - ND 38, FSU 38 1.08 25.3% 26.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: FSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.92 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.3%

Win Probability (After): 51.6%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:40 ESPN team id 87 (Kickoff at ND 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 58 yds for a touchback - ND 38, FSU 38 0.00 51.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.71 - 0.71 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.71)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.9%

Win Probability (After): 51.9%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:33 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 25) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 4 yds to the NDame 29 - ND 38, FSU 38 0.05 62.8% -4.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - 0.79 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.79)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.8%

Win Probability (After): 58.6%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:25 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 6 at ND 29) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 22 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 38 1.49 58.5% 23.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 49

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.12 - 0.63 = 1.49

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.5%

Win Probability (After): 82.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:11 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at FSU 49) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr. - ND 38, FSU 38 0.38 59.8% 11.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.59 - 1.21 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.8%

Win Probability (After): 71.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:11 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at FSU 49) Timeout FLORIDA ST, clock 00:11 - ND 38, FSU 38 0.00 65.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.59 - 1.59 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.59)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.9%

Win Probability (After): 65.9%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:05 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at FSU 49) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael Mayer - ND 38, FSU 38 0.00 67.8% -5.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.00 - 1.01 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.8%

Win Probability (After): 61.9%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 10 at FSU 49) Jack Coan pass intercepted Travis Jay return for 5 yds to the FlaSt 16 - ND 38, FSU 38 -0.60 72.2% -17.5%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 84

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.54 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.06)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.2%

Win Probability (After): 54.7%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

OT ESPN team id 52 (1st & 10 at ND 25) Jashaun Corbin run for 5 yds to the NDame 20 - ND 38, FSU 38 0.21 84.0% 3.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 20

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 2.18 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.0%

Win Probability (After): 87.6%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

OT ESPN team id 52 (2nd & 5 at ND 20) Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the NDame 19 - ND 38, FSU 38 0.07 87.6% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 19

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 2.39 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.39)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.6%

Win Probability (After): 88.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

OT ESPN team id 52 (3rd & 4 at ND 19) McKenzie Milton pass incomplete - ND 38, FSU 38 0.15 88.0% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.62 - 2.47 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.47)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.0%

Win Probability (After): 87.3%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

OT ESPN team id 52 (4th & 4 at ND 19) Ryan Fitzgerald 37 yd FG MISSED - ND 38, FSU 38 -2.64 87.3% -34.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 80

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 2.62 = -2.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.02)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.3%

Win Probability (After): 52.5%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

OT ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at FSU 25) Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 22 - ND 38, FSU 38 0.21 82.6% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 22

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 2.18 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.6%

Win Probability (After): 85.4%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

OT ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 7 at FSU 22) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 23 - ND 38, FSU 38 0.03 85.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 23

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 2.39 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.39)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.4%

Win Probability (After): 85.5%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

OT ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 8 at FSU 23) Kyren Williams run for no gain to the FlaSt 23 - ND 38, FSU 38 0.15 85.5% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 2.43 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.43)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.5%

Win Probability (After): 85.2%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

OT ESPN team id 87 (4th & 8 at FSU 23) Timeout FLORIDA ST, clock 00:00 - ND 38, FSU 38 0.00 85.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 2.58 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.58)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 38, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.2%

Win Probability (After): 85.2%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

OT ESPN team id 87 (4th & 8 at FSU 23) Jonathan Doerer 41 yd FG GOOD - ND 41, FSU 38 0.42 85.2% 14.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.58 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.58)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ND 41, FSU 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.2%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 38 (41) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link