Win Probability
Game Excitement Index: 6.44 | Odds: ND -7.5, O/U 54.0 | Download Chart
Expected Points
Team Stats [show/hide]
| Overall |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 85 | 87 |
| Total EPA | 11.09 | 11.84 |
| Offensive EPA | 10.95 | 14.47 |
| Special Teams EPA | 1.44 | -0.38 |
| Penalty EPA | 2.62 | -4.39 |
| Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA | -3.92 | 2.14 |
| Production | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 70 | 74 |
| Yards | 455 | 461 |
| Yards/Play | 6.50 | 6.23 |
| EPA | 10.95 | 14.47 |
| EPA/Play | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| Passes | 39 (56%) | 31 (42%) |
| Yards | 366 | 178 |
| Yards/Play | 9.38 | 5.74 |
| EPA | 17.94 | -1.98 |
| EPA/Play | 0.46 | -0.06 |
| Rushes | 31 (44%) | 43 (58%) |
| Yards | 81 | 298 |
| Yards/Play | 2.61 | 6.93 |
| EPA | -7.00 | 16.46 |
| EPA/Play | -0.23 | 0.38 |
| Rushing | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 70 | 74 |
| Rushes | 31 (44%) | 43 (58%) |
| Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) | 0 (0%) | 1 (2%) |
| Successful Power Runs (Rate) | 0 (0%) | 1 (100%) |
| Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) | 7 (23%) | 6 (14%) |
| Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) | 15 (48%) | 18 (42%) |
| Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) | 11 (35%) | 23 (53%) |
| OL Line Yards | 48.5 | 71.1 |
| Per Carry | 1.56 | 1.65 |
| Highlight Yards | 8 | 145.5 |
| Per Rush Opportunity | 0.73 | 6.33 |
| Explosiveness | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 85 | 87 |
| Scrimmage Plays | 70 | 74 |
| Explosive Plays | 6 (9%) | 8 (11%) |
| When Passing (EPA > 2.4) | 5 (13%) | 3 (10%) |
| When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) | 1 (3%) | 5 (12%) |
| EPA w/o Explosive Plays | -12.41 | -15.91 |
| EPA/Play | -0.19 | -0.24 |
| When Passing | -3.24 | -14.83 |
| EPA/Play | -0.08 | -0.48 |
| When Rushing | -9.17 | -1.08 |
| EPA/Play | -0.31 | -0.03 |
| Situational | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Successful Plays (EPA > 0) | 34 (49%) | 31 (42%) |
| When Passing | 21 (54%) | 10 (32%) |
| When Rushing | 13 (42%) | 21 (49%) |
| On Standard Downs | 25 (51%) | 20 (43%) |
| On Passing Downs | 9 (43%) | 11 (39%) |
| On Early Downs | 26 (51%) | 22 (39%) |
| On Late Downs | 8 (42%) | 9 (50%) |
| During "Middle 8" | 8 (67%) | 2 (18%) |
| Early Downs | 51 | 56 |
| First Downs Created | 10 (20%) | 11 (20%) |
| EPA | 4.50 | 6.52 |
| EPA/Play | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| Passes | 25 (49%) | 18 (32%) |
| Rushes | 26 (51%) | 38 (68%) |
| Successful Passes (Rate) | 14 (56%) | 4 (22%) |
| Successful Rushes (Rate) | 12 (46%) | 18 (47%) |
| "Middle 8" Plays | 12 | 11 |
| EPA | 10.64 | -2.36 |
| EPA/play | 0.89 | -0.21 |
| Passes | 9 (75%) | 6 (55%) |
| Rushes | 3 (25%) | 5 (45%) |
| Successful Passes (Rate) | 6 (67%) | 2 (33%) |
| Successful Rushes (Rate) | 2 (67%) | 0 (0%) |
| Drives | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total | 15 | 15 |
| Avg Starting Field Position | Own 31 | Own 28 |
| Plays/Drive | 5.49 | 8.05 |
| Yards/Drive | 34.33 | 43.68 |
| Available Yards % | 50% | 61% |
| Defensive | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 74 | 70 |
| Stop Rate | 20% | 41% |
| Havoc Plays Created | 13 (18%) | 11 (16%) |
| Passing | 11 (35%) | 7 (18%) |
| Rushing | 2 (5%) | 4 (13%) |
| TFLs Generated | 10 | 10 |
| Passing | 8 | 6 |
| Rushing | 2 | 4 |
| Sacks Generated | 5 (16%) | 4 (10%) |
| Passes Defensed | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 3 | 1 |
| Fumbles Forced | 0 | 0 |
| Turnovers | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 3 |
| Fumbles | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles Lost | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles Recovered | 1 | 1 |
| Interceptions | 1 | 3 |
| Turnover Margin | 2 | -2 |
| Expected Turnovers | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Expected Turnover Margin | 0.4 | -0.4 |
| Turnover Luck (pts) | 7.8 | -7.8 |
| Special Teams | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 15 | 13 |
| Total EPA | 1.44 | -0.38 |
| Field Goal EPA | 2.15 | -1.55 |
| Punting EPA | -0.7 | 0.56 |
| Kickoff Return EPA | 0 | 0.62 |
Notre Dame [show/hide]
| Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | |||||||
| Jack Coan | 26/35, 366 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT, 4 Scks, 74.9 xQBR, 1.14 DETMER | 9.38 | 0.46 | 17.94 | 54% | 47.0% | |
| Rush attempts | |||||||
| Chris Tyree | 7 carries, 31 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 4.43 | 0.23 | 1.63 | 71% | 8.0% | |
| TEAM | 1 carry, -5 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) | -5.00 | -1.97 | -1.97 | 0% | -3.0% | |
| Jack Coan | 5 carries, 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 2.60 | -0.53 | -2.66 | 20% | -5.0% | |
| Kyren Williams | 18 carries, 42 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 2.33 | -0.22 | -3.99 | 39% | -5.0% | |
| Pass targets | |||||||
| Kevin Austin Jr. | 4 catches (7 targets), 91 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 22.75 | 1.11 | 7.78 | 71% | 37.0% | |
| Michael Mayer | 9 catches (13 targets), 120 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 13.33 | 0.45 | 5.90 | 54% | 21.0% | |
| Kyren Williams | 6 catches (6 targets), 83 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 13.83 | 0.85 | 5.12 | 67% | 22.0% | |
| Joe Wilkins Jr. | 1 catch (1 target), 23 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 23.00 | 3.78 | 3.78 | 100% | 10.0% | |
| Braden Lenzy | 2 catches (3 targets), 39 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 19.50 | 0.85 | 2.54 | 67% | 1.0% | |
| Chris Tyree | 4 catches (4 targets), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 2.50 | -0.18 | -0.70 | 50% | -1.0% | |
Florida State [show/hide]
| Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | |||||||
| McKenzie Milton | 5/7, 48 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 53.9 xQBR, 0.00 DETMER | 6.00 | 0.27 | 2.16 | 50% | -3.0% | |
| Jordan Travis | 9/19, 130 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT, 4 Scks, 36.2 xQBR, 0.81 DETMER | 5.65 | -0.18 | -4.15 | 26% | 4.0% | |
| Rush attempts | |||||||
| Jashaun Corbin | 15 carries, 144 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 9.60 | 0.69 | 10.29 | 53% | 20.0% | |
| Treshaun Ward | 11 carries, 76 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.91 | 0.48 | 5.30 | 64% | 34.0% | |
| Jordan Travis | 8 carries, 40 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 5.00 | 0.10 | 0.82 | 25% | 4.0% | |
| McKenzie Milton | 2 carries, 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 4.50 | 0.29 | 0.59 | 100% | 6.0% | |
| Lawrance Toafili | 6 carries, 34 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 5.67 | 0.04 | 0.26 | 33% | -16.0% | |
| TEAM | 1 carry, -5 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) | -5.00 | -0.80 | -0.80 | 0% | -4.0% | |
| Pass targets | |||||||
| Keyshawn Helton | 4 catches (4 targets), 53 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 13.25 | 1.60 | 6.41 | 75% | 12.0% | |
| Ja'Khi Douglas | 3 catches (3 targets), 80 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 26.67 | 2.11 | 6.33 | 67% | 23.0% | |
| Andrew Parchment | 1 catch (2 targets), 8 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 8.00 | 1.92 | 3.84 | 50% | 7.0% | |
| Darion Williamson | 1 catch (1 target), 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 12.00 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 100% | 6.0% | |
| Ontaria Wilson | 1 catch (1 target), -2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | -2.00 | -0.61 | -0.61 | 0% | -2.0% | |
| Lawrance Toafili | 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 0.00 | -0.80 | -0.80 | 0% | -1.0% | |
| Malik McClain | 1 catch (3 targets), 21 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 21.00 | -0.38 | -1.13 | 33% | -3.0% | |
| Jashaun Corbin | 3 catches (4 targets), 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 2.00 | -0.46 | -1.85 | 25% | 0.0% | |
Big Plays [show/hide]
As determined by absolute EPA.
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:06 | |
(2nd & 10 at FSU 11) Jashaun Corbin 89 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) - ND 7, FSU 7 | 8.40 | 15.5% | 13.7% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 99 Started Drive at: FSU 11 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -1.40 = 8.40 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.40) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 89 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.5% Win Probability (After): 29.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 13:36 | |
(3rd & 7 at FSU 40) Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 60 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - ND 17, FSU 20 | 5.60 | 27.3% | 20.9% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 99 Started Drive at: FSU 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 0.40 = 5.60 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.60) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 63 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.3% Win Probability (After): 48.2% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 9:50 | |
(3rd & 17 at ND 24) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 55 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST down - ND 24, FSU 20 | 5.34 | 68.8% | 14.4% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 21 Started Drive at: ND 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.82 - -0.52 = 5.34 Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.48) Score Difference (End): 4 (8.82) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 24, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 48 yards Win Probability (Before): 68.8% Win Probability (After): 83.3% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 12:46 | |
(4th & 1 at FSU 41) Michael Mayer 41 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick) - ND 7, FSU 0 | 5.24 | 77.0% | 11.6% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 99 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.76 = 5.24 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.76) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.0% Win Probability (After): 88.6% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q4 13:42 | |
(3rd & Goal at ND 8) Andrew Parchment 8 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Jordan Travis Pass to Keyshawn Helton for Two-Point Conversion) - ND 38, FSU 28 | 4.43 | 2.0% | 7.5% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.57 = 4.43 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.43) Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 15 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.0% Win Probability (After): 9.6% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q3 11:52 | |
(3rd & 1 at FSU 37) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 24, FSU 20 | 4.05 | 58.3% | 15.9% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.95 = 4.05 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.05) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 24, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.3% Win Probability (After): 74.2% Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 1:44 | |
(4th & 1 at FSU 44) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for no gain to the FlaSt 44 - ND 7, FSU 7 | -3.86 | 69.1% | -7.3% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 56 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.49 - 1.37 = -3.86 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.37) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.49) Change of Possession: 1 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 69.1% Win Probability (After): 61.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q2 2:21 | |
(3rd & 4 at FSU 23) Jack Coan pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 23 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 17, FSU 14 | 3.78 | 65.7% | 10.0% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 99 Started Drive at: FSU 48 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.22 = 3.78 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.78) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 48 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.7% Win Probability (After): 75.7% Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 6:06 | |
(3rd & 11 at ND 20) McKenzie Milton pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 15 yds to the NDame 5 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 28 | 2.81 | 7.2% | 7.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 5 Started Drive at: FSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.50 - 2.69 = 2.81 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.31) Score Difference (End): -10 (-4.50) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 83 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.2% Win Probability (After): 14.7% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q3 7:05 | |
(3rd & Goal at FSU 6) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 31, FSU 20 | 2.78 | 81.8% | 7.1% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99 Started Drive at: ND 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.22 = 2.78 Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.22) Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 31, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.8% Win Probability (After): 88.9% Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
Most Important Plays [show/hide]
As determined by absolute WPA.
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OT | |
(4th & 4 at ND 19) Ryan Fitzgerald 37 yd FG MISSED - ND 38, FSU 38 | -2.64 | 87.3% | -34.7% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Missed Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 80 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 2.62 = -2.64 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.62) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.02) Change of Possession: 1 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 87.3% Win Probability (After): 52.5% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q4 0:40 | |
(4th & 6 at ND 25) Ryan Fitzgerald 43 yd FG GOOD - ND 38, FSU 38 | 1.08 | 25.3% | 26.3% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25 Started Drive at: FSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.92 = 1.08 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.08) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 46 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.3% Win Probability (After): 51.6% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q4 0:25 | |
(2nd & 6 at ND 29) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 22 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 38 | 1.49 | 58.5% | 23.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 49 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.12 - 0.63 = 1.49 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.63) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.12) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.5% Win Probability (After): 82.0% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 13:36 | |
(3rd & 7 at FSU 40) Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 60 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - ND 17, FSU 20 | 5.60 | 27.3% | 20.9% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 99 Started Drive at: FSU 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 0.40 = 5.60 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.60) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 63 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.3% Win Probability (After): 48.2% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 0:00 | |
(3rd & 10 at FSU 49) Jack Coan pass intercepted Travis Jay return for 5 yds to the FlaSt 16 - ND 38, FSU 38 | -0.60 | 72.2% | -17.5% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 84 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.54 = -0.60 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.54) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.06) Change of Possession: 1 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 72.2% Win Probability (After): 54.7% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 0:45 | |
(3rd & 6 at ND 25) McKenzie Milton pass incomplete - ND 38, FSU 35 | -1.13 | 43.7% | -16.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25 Started Drive at: FSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 2.95 = -1.13 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.05) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.18) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 35 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 46 yards Win Probability (Before): 43.7% Win Probability (After): 26.8% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q3 11:52 | |
(3rd & 1 at FSU 37) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 24, FSU 20 | 4.05 | 58.3% | 15.9% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.95 = 4.05 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.05) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 24, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.3% Win Probability (After): 74.2% Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 2:29 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 41) Treshaun Ward run for 12 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 35 | 0.89 | 36.6% | 15.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 29 Started Drive at: FSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 2.39 = 0.89 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.61) Score Difference (End): -3 (0.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 35 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 36.6% Win Probability (After): 51.9% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| OT | |
(4th & 8 at FSU 23) Jonathan Doerer 41 yd FG GOOD - ND 41, FSU 38 | 0.42 | 85.2% | 14.8% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23 Started Drive at: ND 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.58 = 0.42 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.58) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 41, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.2% Win Probability (After): 100.0% Away Score: 38 (41) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q3 9:50 | |
(3rd & 17 at ND 24) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 55 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST down - ND 24, FSU 20 | 5.34 | 68.8% | 14.4% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 21 Started Drive at: ND 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.82 - -0.52 = 5.34 Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.48) Score Difference (End): 4 (8.82) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 24, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 48 yards Win Probability (Before): 68.8% Win Probability (After): 83.3% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
Scoring Plays [show/hide]
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:46 | |
(4th & 1 at FSU 41) Michael Mayer 41 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick) - ND 7, FSU 0 | 5.24 | 77.0% | 11.6% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 99 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.76 = 5.24 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.76) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.0% Win Probability (After): 88.6% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q1 5:06 | |
(2nd & 10 at FSU 11) Jashaun Corbin 89 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) - ND 7, FSU 7 | 8.40 | 15.5% | 13.7% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 99 Started Drive at: FSU 11 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -1.40 = 8.40 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.40) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 89 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.5% Win Probability (After): 29.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 10:05 | |
(1st & Goal at ND 2) Jordan Travis run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) - ND 7, FSU 14 | 0.73 | 43.3% | 5.8% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99 Started Drive at: ND 45 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.27 = 0.73 Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.27) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 43.3% Win Probability (After): 49.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 5:02 | |
(4th & 6 at FSU 29) Jonathan Doerer 48 yd FG GOOD - ND 10, FSU 14 | 1.73 | 51.7% | 10.7% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 29 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.27 = 1.73 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.73) Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 10, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.7% Win Probability (After): 62.4% Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q2 2:21 | |
(3rd & 4 at FSU 23) Jack Coan pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 23 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 17, FSU 14 | 3.78 | 65.7% | 10.0% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 99 Started Drive at: FSU 48 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.22 = 3.78 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.78) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 48 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.7% Win Probability (After): 75.7% Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 13:36 | |
(3rd & 7 at FSU 40) Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 60 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - ND 17, FSU 20 | 5.60 | 27.3% | 20.9% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 99 Started Drive at: FSU 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 0.40 = 5.60 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.60) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 63 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.3% Win Probability (After): 48.2% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 11:52 | |
(3rd & 1 at FSU 37) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 24, FSU 20 | 4.05 | 58.3% | 15.9% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.95 = 4.05 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.05) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 24, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.3% Win Probability (After): 74.2% Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 7:05 | |
(3rd & Goal at FSU 6) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 31, FSU 20 | 2.78 | 81.8% | 7.1% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99 Started Drive at: ND 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.22 = 2.78 Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.22) Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 31, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.8% Win Probability (After): 88.9% Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 4:37 | |
(2nd & Goal at FSU 1) Chris Tyree run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 38, FSU 20 | 0.60 | 96.7% | 1.3% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: FSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.40 = 0.60 Score Difference (Before): 11 (17.40) Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 96.7% Win Probability (After): 98.0% Away Score: 31 (38) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 13:42 | |
(3rd & Goal at ND 8) Andrew Parchment 8 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Jordan Travis Pass to Keyshawn Helton for Two-Point Conversion) - ND 38, FSU 28 | 4.43 | 2.0% | 7.5% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.57 = 4.43 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.43) Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 15 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.0% Win Probability (After): 9.6% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 5:36 | |
(1st & Goal at ND 2) Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) - ND 38, FSU 35 | 1.02 | 14.8% | 11.2% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99 Started Drive at: FSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.98 = 1.02 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-4.02) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 35 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 85 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.8% Win Probability (After): 26.0% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (35) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 0:40 | |
(4th & 6 at ND 25) Ryan Fitzgerald 43 yd FG GOOD - ND 38, FSU 38 | 1.08 | 25.3% | 26.3% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25 Started Drive at: FSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.92 = 1.08 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.08) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 46 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.3% Win Probability (After): 51.6% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| OT | |
(4th & 8 at FSU 23) Jonathan Doerer 41 yd FG GOOD - ND 41, FSU 38 | 0.42 | 85.2% | 14.8% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23 Started Drive at: ND 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.58 = 0.42 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.58) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 41, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.2% Win Probability (After): 100.0% Away Score: 38 (41) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
All Plays [show/hide]
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at ND 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ND 0, FSU 0 | 0.00 | 71.2% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 0, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 71.2% Win Probability (After): 71.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 14:43 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 25) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - ND 0, FSU 0 | 1.65 | 76.2% | 1.1% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 50 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.70 - 1.05 = 1.65 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.05) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.70) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 0, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 76.2% Win Probability (After): 77.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 14:39 | |
(1st & 10 at 50) NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Zeke Correll) to the NDame 45 - ND 0, FSU 0 | -0.84 | 78.8% | -0.8% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 55 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.99 - 2.83 = -0.84 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.83) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 0, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.8% Win Probability (After): 78.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 13:48 | |
(1st & 15 at ND 45) Jack Coan sacked by Jermaine Johnson II for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 43 - ND 0, FSU 0 | -0.85 | 77.2% | -1.0% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 57 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.17 - 2.02 = -0.85 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.02) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.17) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 0, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.2% Win Probability (After): 76.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 13:20 | |
(2nd & 17 at ND 43) Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 15 yds to the FlaSt 42 - ND 0, FSU 0 | 1.43 | 75.7% | 2.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 42 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.60 - 1.17 = 1.43 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.17) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.60) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 0, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 38 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.7% Win Probability (After): 78.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 12:59 | |
(3rd & 2 at FSU 42) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 1 yd to the FlaSt 41 - ND 0, FSU 0 | -0.76 | 80.2% | -3.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 41 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - 2.57 = -0.76 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.57) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.81) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 0, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.2% Win Probability (After): 77.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 12:46 | |
(4th & 1 at FSU 41) Michael Mayer 41 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick) - ND 7, FSU 0 | 5.24 | 77.0% | 11.6% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 99 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.76 = 5.24 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.76) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.0% Win Probability (After): 88.6% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q1 12:49 | |
(Kickoff at FSU 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 64 yds , Corey Wren return for 19 yds to the FlaSt 20 - ND 7, FSU 0 | -0.27 | 15.8% | -0.6% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80 Started Drive at: FSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.45 - -0.18 = -0.27 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.18) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.45) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.8% Win Probability (After): 15.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 12:22 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 20) Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 15 - ND 7, FSU 0 | -1.21 | 14.9% | -0.6% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 85 Started Drive at: FSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.67 - -0.46 = -1.21 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.46) Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.67) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, -5 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.9% Win Probability (After): 14.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 12:00 | |
(2nd & 15 at FSU 15) Travis, Jordan pass complete to Helton, Keyshawn for 10 yards to the FLORIDAST25, PENALTY FLORIDAST ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the FLORIDAST10, NO PLAY. - ND 7, FSU 0 | -0.48 | 15.4% | -1.7% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 90 Started Drive at: FSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.08 - -1.60 = -0.48 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.60) Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.08) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, -5 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.4% Win Probability (After): 13.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 11:42 | |
(2nd & 20 at FSU 10) Jordan Travis pass incomplete - ND 7, FSU 0 | -0.73 | 13.9% | 0.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90 Started Drive at: FSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.84 - -2.11 = -0.73 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.11) Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.84) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, -5 yards Win Probability (Before): 13.9% Win Probability (After): 14.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 11:37 | |
(3rd & 20 at FSU 10) Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Lawrance Toafili - ND 7, FSU 0 | -0.80 | 13.3% | -1.0% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90 Started Drive at: FSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.67 - -2.88 = -0.80 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.88) Score Difference (End): -7 (-10.67) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -5 yards Win Probability (Before): 13.3% Win Probability (After): 12.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 11:30 | |
(4th & 20 at FSU 10) Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 46 - ND 7, FSU 0 | 0.27 | 12.3% | -1.0% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 54 Started Drive at: FSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.33 - -3.60 = 0.27 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-10.60) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.33) Change of Possession: 1 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -5 yards Win Probability (Before): 12.3% Win Probability (After): 11.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q1 11:14 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 46) Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 48 - ND 7, FSU 0 | 0.11 | 88.9% | 0.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 48 Started Drive at: ND 46 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.46 - 3.35 = 0.11 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.35) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.46) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.9% Win Probability (After): 89.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 10:44 | |
(2nd & 4 at FSU 48) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr. - ND 7, FSU 0 | -0.91 | 88.8% | -0.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48 Started Drive at: ND 46 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 3.50 = -0.91 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.50) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.58) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.8% Win Probability (After): 88.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 10:41 | |
(3rd & 4 at FSU 48) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael Mayer - ND 7, FSU 0 | -1.90 | 88.4% | -1.4% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48 Started Drive at: ND 46 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.73 - 2.63 = -1.90 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.63) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.73) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.4% Win Probability (After): 87.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 10:34 | |
(4th & 4 at FSU 48) Jay Bramblett punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 15 - ND 7, FSU 0 | -0.32 | 86.9% | -2.2% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 85 Started Drive at: ND 46 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 0.75 = -0.32 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.75) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.43) Change of Possession: 1 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 86.9% Win Probability (After): 84.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q1 10:13 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 15) Treshaun Ward run for no gain to the FlaSt 15 - ND 7, FSU 0 | -0.59 | 15.3% | -0.2% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 85 Started Drive at: FSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.10 - -0.51 = -0.59 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.51) Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.10) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.3% Win Probability (After): 15.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 9:40 | |
(2nd & 10 at FSU 15) Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 19 - ND 7, FSU 0 | -0.76 | 15.4% | -1.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 81 Started Drive at: FSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.73 - -0.98 = -0.76 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.98) Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.73) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.4% Win Probability (After): 14.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 8:35 | |
(3rd & 6 at FSU 19) Jordan Travis sacked by Jayson Ademilola and JD Bertrand for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaSt 11 - ND 7, FSU 0 | -1.70 | 14.2% | -1.0% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 89 Started Drive at: FSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.36 - -1.65 = -1.70 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.65) Score Difference (End): -7 (-10.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.2% Win Probability (After): 13.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 8:20 | |
(4th & 14 at FSU 11) FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 6 - ND 7, FSU 0 | -0.29 | 12.4% | -0.0% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 94 Started Drive at: FSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.75 - -3.46 = -0.29 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-10.46) Score Difference (End): -7 (-10.75) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards Win Probability (Before): 12.4% Win Probability (After): 12.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q1 8:02 | |
(4th & 19 at FSU 6) Alex Mastromanno punt for 53 yds , Kyren Williams returns for 4 yds to the NDame 45 - ND 7, FSU 0 | 0.45 | 12.2% | 0.1% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 55 Started Drive at: FSU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.30 - -3.74 = 0.45 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-10.74) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.30) Change of Possession: 1 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards Win Probability (Before): 12.2% Win Probability (After): 12.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q1 7:45 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 45) Chris Tyree run for 1 yd to the NDame 46 - ND 7, FSU 0 | -0.51 | 90.1% | -1.0% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 54 Started Drive at: ND 45 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - 3.26 = -0.51 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.26) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.74) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 90.1% Win Probability (After): 89.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 7:10 | |
(2nd & 9 at ND 46) Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 9 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST down - ND 7, FSU 0 | 0.96 | 89.1% | 1.3% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 45 Started Drive at: ND 45 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.74 - 2.78 = 0.96 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.78) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.74) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards Win Probability (Before): 89.1% Win Probability (After): 90.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 6:52 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 45) Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 49 - ND 7, FSU 0 | -1.25 | 89.6% | -0.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 49 Started Drive at: ND 45 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.54 - 3.79 = -1.25 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.79) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.54) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 89.6% Win Probability (After): 88.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 6:09 | |
(2nd & 14 at FSU 49) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 7 yds to the FlaSt 42 - ND 7, FSU 0 | -0.15 | 88.7% | -0.3% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 42 Started Drive at: ND 45 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.38 - 2.53 = -0.15 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.53) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.38) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.7% Win Probability (After): 88.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 5:38 | |
(3rd & 7 at FSU 42) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael Mayer - ND 7, FSU 0 | -1.84 | 87.7% | -0.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 42 Started Drive at: ND 45 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - 2.36 = -1.84 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.36) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.52) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 87.7% Win Probability (After): 86.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 5:31 | |
(4th & 7 at FSU 42) Jay Bramblett punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 11 - ND 7, FSU 0 | 0.12 | 86.1% | -2.0% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 89 Started Drive at: ND 45 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.69 - 0.57 = 0.12 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.57) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.69) Change of Possession: 1 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 86.1% Win Probability (After): 84.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q1 5:25 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 11) Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Malik McClain - ND 7, FSU 0 | -0.71 | 16.0% | -0.6% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 89 Started Drive at: FSU 11 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.40 - -0.69 = -0.71 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.69) Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.40) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 16.0% Win Probability (After): 15.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 5:06 | |
(2nd & 10 at FSU 11) Jashaun Corbin 89 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) - ND 7, FSU 7 | 8.40 | 15.5% | 13.7% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 99 Started Drive at: FSU 11 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -1.40 = 8.40 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.40) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 89 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.5% Win Probability (After): 29.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 5:12 | |
(Kickoff at ND 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ND 7, FSU 7 | 0.00 | 73.2% | 1.4% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 1.07 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.07) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.07) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 73.2% Win Probability (After): 74.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 4:50 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 25) Kyren Williams run for no gain to the NDame 25 - ND 7, FSU 7 | -0.63 | 74.7% | -2.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 1.07 = -0.63 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.07) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.44) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 74.7% Win Probability (After): 71.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 4:23 | |
(2nd & 10 at ND 25) Kyren Williams run for 7 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NDame 47 for a 1ST down - ND 7, FSU 7 | 2.17 | 73.4% | 4.0% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 53 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.61 - 0.44 = 2.17 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.44) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.61) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 73.4% Win Probability (After): 77.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 3:52 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 47) Tyree, Chris rush for 1 yard to the NOTREDAME48, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding 10 yards to the NOTREDAME37, NO PLAY. - ND 7, FSU 7 | -1.05 | 77.5% | -1.9% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 63 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 2.60 = -1.05 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.60) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.56) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.5% Win Probability (After): 75.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 3:33 | |
(1st & 20 at ND 37) Chris Tyree run for 12 yds to the NDame 49 - ND 7, FSU 7 | 0.52 | 75.3% | 1.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 51 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.06 - 1.54 = 0.52 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.54) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.06) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 34 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.3% Win Probability (After): 77.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 2:55 | |
(2nd & 8 at ND 49) Chris Tyree run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 45 - ND 7, FSU 7 | 0.31 | 74.3% | 2.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 45 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.37 - 2.06 = 0.31 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.06) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.37) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 74.3% Win Probability (After): 77.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 2:20 | |
(3rd & 2 at FSU 45) Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 44 - ND 7, FSU 7 | -1.03 | 74.9% | -2.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 44 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 2.38 = -1.03 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.38) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 74.9% Win Probability (After): 72.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 1:44 | |
(4th & 1 at FSU 44) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for no gain to the FlaSt 44 - ND 7, FSU 7 | -3.86 | 69.1% | -7.3% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 56 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.49 - 1.37 = -3.86 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.37) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.49) Change of Possession: 1 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 69.1% Win Probability (After): 61.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q1 1:30 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 44) Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 45 - ND 7, FSU 7 | -0.65 | 37.6% | -1.5% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 55 Started Drive at: FSU 44 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.90 - 2.55 = -0.65 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.55) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.90) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 37.6% Win Probability (After): 36.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 1:01 | |
(2nd & 9 at FSU 45) Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 46 - ND 7, FSU 7 | -0.83 | 36.1% | -2.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 54 Started Drive at: FSU 44 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 1.93 = -0.83 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.93) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.10) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 36.1% Win Probability (After): 33.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 0:25 | |
(3rd & 8 at FSU 46) Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 9 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST down - ND 7, FSU 7 | 2.12 | 33.0% | 5.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 45 Started Drive at: FSU 44 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.22 - 1.10 = 2.12 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.10) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.22) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 33.0% Win Probability (After): 38.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 0:00 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 45) Jordan Travis sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard line - ND 7, FSU 7 | -1.58 | 38.1% | -2.5% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 50 Started Drive at: FSU 44 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.62 - 3.20 = -1.58 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.20) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.62) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 38.1% Win Probability (After): 35.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 14:47 | |
(2nd & 15 at 50) Jordan Travis sacked by Rylie Mills for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 45 - ND 7, FSU 7 | -1.25 | 32.1% | -3.8% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 55 Started Drive at: FSU 44 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.39 - 1.64 = -1.25 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.64) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.1% Win Probability (After): 28.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 14:17 | |
(3rd & 20 at FSU 45) Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 12 yds to the NDame 43 - ND 7, FSU 7 | -0.57 | 29.2% | -2.0% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 43 Started Drive at: FSU 44 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.16 - 0.41 = -0.57 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.41) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.2% Win Probability (After): 27.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 13:42 | |
(4th & 8 at ND 43) Alex Mastromanno punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 7 - ND 7, FSU 7 | 0.21 | 28.6% | 0.6% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 93 Started Drive at: FSU 44 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - -0.16 = 0.21 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.16) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.05) Change of Possession: 1 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.6% Win Probability (After): 29.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q2 13:30 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 7) Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 11 - ND 7, FSU 7 | -0.12 | 69.5% | -0.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 89 Started Drive at: ND 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.17 - -0.05 = -0.12 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.05) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.17) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 69.5% Win Probability (After): 69.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 13:07 | |
(2nd & 6 at ND 11) Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 12 - ND 7, FSU 7 | -0.83 | 68.8% | -1.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 88 Started Drive at: ND 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.95 - -0.13 = -0.83 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.13) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.95) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 68.8% Win Probability (After): 67.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 12:30 | |
(3rd & 5 at ND 12) TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 7 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NDame Jack Coan - ND 7, FSU 7 | -1.97 | 67.2% | -2.8% |
|
Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 93 Started Drive at: ND 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.86 - -0.90 = -1.97 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.90) Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.2% Win Probability (After): 64.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 11:44 | |
(4th & 10 at ND 7) Jay Bramblett punt for 38 yds, downed at the NDame 45 - ND 7, FSU 7 | -0.37 | 64.7% | -0.7% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 45 Started Drive at: ND 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.21 - -2.84 = -0.37 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.84) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.21) Change of Possession: 1 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.7% Win Probability (After): 64.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q2 11:30 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 45) Jordan Travis pass complete to Malik McClain for 21 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST down - ND 7, FSU 7 | 1.12 | 37.3% | -1.6% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 24 Started Drive at: ND 45 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.36 - 3.24 = 1.12 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.24) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 21 yards Win Probability (Before): 37.3% Win Probability (After): 35.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 11:13 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 24) Jordan Travis run for 2 yds to the NDame 22 - ND 7, FSU 7 | -0.29 | 39.1% | -0.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 22 Started Drive at: ND 45 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 4.37 = -0.29 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.37) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.08) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards Win Probability (Before): 39.1% Win Probability (After): 38.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 10:45 | |
(2nd & 8 at ND 22) Lawrance Toafili run for 20 yds to the NDame 2 for a 1ST down - ND 7, FSU 7 | 2.21 | 39.2% | 3.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 2 Started Drive at: ND 45 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.27 - 4.07 = 2.21 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.07) Score Difference (End): 0 (6.27) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 43 yards Win Probability (Before): 39.2% Win Probability (After): 42.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 10:05 | |
(1st & Goal at ND 2) Jordan Travis run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) - ND 7, FSU 14 | 0.73 | 43.3% | 5.8% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99 Started Drive at: ND 45 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.27 = 0.73 Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.27) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 43.3% Win Probability (After): 49.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 10:05 | |
(Kickoff at ND 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ND 7, FSU 14 | 0.00 | 55.5% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.60 - 0.60 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.40) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.40) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.5% Win Probability (After): 55.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 9:53 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 25) Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 31 - ND 7, FSU 14 | 0.43 | 54.8% | 0.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 0.59 = 0.43 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.41) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.98) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.8% Win Probability (After): 55.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 9:20 | |
(2nd & 4 at ND 31) Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 34 - ND 7, FSU 14 | 0.19 | 53.7% | 0.5% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 66 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.05 - 0.86 = 0.19 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.14) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.95) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.7% Win Probability (After): 54.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 8:57 | |
(3rd & 1 at ND 34) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 8 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST down - ND 7, FSU 14 | 1.00 | 52.5% | 2.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 58 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.89 - 0.89 = 1.00 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.11) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.11) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.5% Win Probability (After): 55.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 8:39 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 42) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 15 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST down - ND 7, FSU 14 | 1.04 | 52.3% | 5.6% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 43 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.86 - 1.81 = 1.04 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.19) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.14) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.3% Win Probability (After): 58.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 8:10 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 43) Jack Coan run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 39 - ND 7, FSU 14 | -0.08 | 55.0% | -0.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 39 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.69 - 2.77 = -0.08 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.23) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.31) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.0% Win Probability (After): 54.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 7:50 | |
(2nd & 6 at FSU 39) Chris Tyree run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST down - ND 7, FSU 14 | 0.69 | 54.6% | 4.0% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 33 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.40 - 2.72 = 0.69 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.28) Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.60) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.6% Win Probability (After): 58.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 7:11 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 33) Jack Coan sacked by Jermaine Johnson II for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 35 - ND 7, FSU 14 | -1.48 | 58.9% | -7.5% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 35 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.04 - 3.52 = -1.48 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.48) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.96) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.9% Win Probability (After): 51.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 6:30 | |
(2nd & 12 at FSU 35) Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 33 - ND 7, FSU 14 | -0.11 | 53.0% | -0.5% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 33 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.19 - 2.30 = -0.11 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.70) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.81) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.0% Win Probability (After): 52.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 6:16 | |
(3rd & 10 at FSU 33) FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Keir Thomas) to the FlaSt 28 - ND 7, FSU 14 | 0.61 | 53.9% | 2.0% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 28 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.93 - 2.32 = 0.61 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.68) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.07) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.9% Win Probability (After): 55.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 5:30 | |
(3rd & 5 at FSU 28) Jack Coan run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 29 - ND 7, FSU 14 | -1.58 | 56.4% | -4.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 29 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - 2.94 = -1.58 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.06) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.64) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 7, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.4% Win Probability (After): 52.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 5:02 | |
(4th & 6 at FSU 29) Jonathan Doerer 48 yd FG GOOD - ND 10, FSU 14 | 1.73 | 51.7% | 10.7% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 29 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.27 = 1.73 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.73) Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 10, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.7% Win Probability (After): 62.4% Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q2 5:02 | |
(Kickoff at FSU 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 65 yds , Travis Jay return for 20 yds to the FlaSt 20 - ND 10, FSU 14 | -0.17 | 44.2% | -1.1% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80 Started Drive at: FSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 1.31 = -0.17 Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.31) Score Difference (End): 4 (5.14) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 10, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 44.2% Win Probability (After): 43.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 4:57 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 20) FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Ontaria Wilson) to the FlaSt 15 - ND 10, FSU 14 | -0.58 | 43.1% | -0.9% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 85 Started Drive at: FSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 1.13 = -0.58 Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.13) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.55) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 10, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 43.1% Win Probability (After): 42.2% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 4:56 | |
(1st & 15 at FSU 15) FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Dillan Gibbons) to the FlaSt 10 - ND 10, FSU 14 | -0.43 | 41.9% | -1.9% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 90 Started Drive at: FSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.08 - 0.52 = -0.43 Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.52) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.08) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 10, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 41.9% Win Probability (After): 40.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 4:45 | |
(1st & 20 at FSU 10) Jashaun Corbin run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 16 - ND 10, FSU 14 | -0.08 | 41.1% | -1.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 84 Started Drive at: FSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 0.09 = -0.08 Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.09) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.01) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 10, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 41.1% Win Probability (After): 39.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 4:20 | |
(2nd & 14 at FSU 16) Jordan Travis run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 22 - ND 10, FSU 14 | -0.12 | 40.6% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 78 Started Drive at: FSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.08 - 0.04 = -0.12 Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.04) Score Difference (End): 4 (3.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 10, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.6% Win Probability (After): 40.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 3:45 | |
(3rd & 8 at FSU 22) Jordan Travis pass intercepted Kyle Hamilton return for no gain to the FlaSt 48 - ND 10, FSU 14 | -2.54 | 40.4% | -6.8% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 48 Started Drive at: FSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.65 - -0.11 = -2.54 Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.89) Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.35) Change of Possession: 1 Score: ND 10, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.4% Win Probability (After): 33.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 3:30 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 48) Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 44 - ND 10, FSU 14 | 0.10 | 65.3% | 0.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 44 Started Drive at: FSU 48 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.45 - 2.36 = 0.10 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.64) Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.55) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 10, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.3% Win Probability (After): 65.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 3:15 | |
(2nd & 6 at FSU 44) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 15 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST down - ND 10, FSU 14 | 1.40 | 64.9% | 3.0% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 29 Started Drive at: FSU 48 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.60 - 2.20 = 1.40 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.80) Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.40) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 10, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.9% Win Probability (After): 67.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 3:06 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 29) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr. - ND 10, FSU 14 | -0.42 | 67.5% | -1.1% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 29 Started Drive at: FSU 48 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.42 = -0.42 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.58) Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 10, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.5% Win Probability (After): 66.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 2:50 | |
(2nd & 10 at FSU 29) Jack Coan run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 23 - ND 10, FSU 14 | 0.39 | 65.9% | 1.0% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 23 Started Drive at: FSU 48 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 2.94 = 0.39 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.06) Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.66) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 10, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.9% Win Probability (After): 66.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 2:21 | |
(3rd & 4 at FSU 23) Jack Coan pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 23 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 17, FSU 14 | 3.78 | 65.7% | 10.0% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 99 Started Drive at: FSU 48 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.22 = 3.78 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.78) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 48 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.7% Win Probability (After): 75.7% Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 2:21 | |
(Kickoff at FSU 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ND 17, FSU 14 | 0.00 | 26.7% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 1.12 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.88) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.88) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.7% Win Probability (After): 26.7% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 2:10 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 25) TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Treshaun Ward - ND 17, FSU 14 | -0.80 | 26.7% | -4.2% |
|
Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 80 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.28 - 1.08 = -0.80 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.92) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.72) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, -5 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.7% Win Probability (After): 22.5% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 1:43 | |
(2nd & 15 at FSU 20) Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 18 - ND 17, FSU 14 | -0.61 | 22.8% | -2.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 82 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.42 - 0.19 = -0.61 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.81) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.42) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, -7 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.8% Win Probability (After): 20.6% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 1:39 | |
(3rd & 17 at FSU 18) Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 01:39 - ND 17, FSU 14 | 0.00 | 20.8% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 82 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.42 - -0.42 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.42) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.42) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, -7 yards Win Probability (Before): 20.8% Win Probability (After): 20.8% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 1:35 | |
(3rd & 17 at FSU 18) Treshaun Ward run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 30 - ND 17, FSU 14 | -0.06 | 21.7% | 0.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 70 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.70 - -0.64 = -0.06 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.64) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.70) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.7% Win Probability (After): 22.0% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q2 1:34 | |
(4th & 5 at FSU 30) Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 01:34 - ND 17, FSU 14 | 0.00 | 21.9% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.70 - -0.70 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.70) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.70) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.9% Win Probability (After): 21.9% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q2 1:28 | |
(4th & 5 at FSU 30) Alex Mastromanno punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 32 - ND 17, FSU 14 | -0.37 | 21.6% | 3.1% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 68 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.06 - -0.69 = -0.37 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.69) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.06) Change of Possession: 1 Score: ND 17, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.6% Win Probability (After): 24.7% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q2 1:13 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 32) Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 1 yd to the NDame 33 - ND 17, FSU 14 | -0.45 | 75.5% | -1.1% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 67 Started Drive at: ND 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 1.10 = -0.45 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.10) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.66) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.5% Win Probability (After): 74.4% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 0:58 | |
(2nd & 9 at ND 33) Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 4 yds to the NDame 37 - ND 17, FSU 14 | 0.03 | 74.7% | -0.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 63 Started Drive at: ND 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.75 - 0.72 = 0.03 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.72) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.75) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 74.7% Win Probability (After): 74.5% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 0:57 | |
(3rd & 5 at ND 37) Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 00:57 - ND 17, FSU 14 | 0.00 | 74.8% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63 Started Drive at: ND 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.75 - 0.75 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.75) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.75) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 74.8% Win Probability (After): 74.8% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 0:50 | |
(3rd & 5 at ND 37) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy - ND 17, FSU 14 | -0.64 | 75.1% | -2.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63 Started Drive at: ND 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.04 - 0.68 = -0.64 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.68) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.04) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.1% Win Probability (After): 72.2% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q2 0:44 | |
(4th & 5 at ND 37) Jay Bramblett punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 26 - ND 17, FSU 14 | -0.44 | 72.7% | 0.2% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 74 Started Drive at: ND 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.50 - -0.05 = -0.44 Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.95) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.50) Change of Possession: 1 Score: ND 17, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 72.7% Win Probability (After): 72.9% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q2 0:34 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 26) Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 10 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST down - ND 17, FSU 14 | 0.29 | 26.5% | 1.0% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 64 Started Drive at: FSU 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.72 - 0.43 = 0.29 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.57) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.5% Win Probability (After): 27.5% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0 |
|||||
| Q2 0:10 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 36) Jordan Travis sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 13 yards to the FlaSt 23 - ND 17, FSU 14 | -0.17 | 27.3% | 0.3% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 77 Started Drive at: FSU 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - 0.17 = -0.17 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.83) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.79) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, -3 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.3% Win Probability (After): 27.6% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0 |
|||||
| Q3 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at FSU 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 61 yds , Corey Wren return for 33 yds to the FlaSt 37 - ND 17, FSU 14 | 1.06 | 27.6% | 3.1% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 63 Started Drive at: FSU 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.50 - 0.44 = 1.06 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.56) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.50) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.6% Win Probability (After): 30.7% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 14:45 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 37) Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 39 - ND 17, FSU 14 | -0.69 | 31.8% | -2.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 61 Started Drive at: FSU 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 1.64 = -0.69 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.36) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.05) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.8% Win Probability (After): 29.8% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 14:14 | |
(2nd & 8 at FSU 39) Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 40 - ND 17, FSU 14 | -0.70 | 30.3% | -2.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 60 Started Drive at: FSU 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.36 - 1.06 = -0.70 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.94) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.64) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 30.3% Win Probability (After): 27.5% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 13:36 | |
(3rd & 7 at FSU 40) Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 60 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - ND 17, FSU 20 | 5.60 | 27.3% | 20.9% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 99 Started Drive at: FSU 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 0.40 = 5.60 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.60) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 63 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.3% Win Probability (After): 48.2% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 13:36 | |
(Kickoff at ND 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 61 yds for a touchback - ND 17, FSU 20 | 0.00 | 60.9% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 0.63 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.37) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.37) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.9% Win Probability (After): 60.9% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 13:36 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 25) Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 13:36 - ND 17, FSU 20 | 0.00 | 60.9% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 0.63 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.37) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.37) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.9% Win Probability (After): 60.9% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 13:20 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 25) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 29 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST down - ND 17, FSU 20 | 2.28 | 56.4% | 6.1% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 46 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 0.63 = 2.28 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.37) Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.08) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 1 play, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.4% Win Probability (After): 62.6% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 12:55 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 46) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 6 yds to the FlaSt 40 - ND 17, FSU 20 | 0.36 | 61.9% | 2.6% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 40 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.25 - 2.89 = 0.36 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.11) Score Difference (End): -3 (0.25) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 35 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.9% Win Probability (After): 64.5% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 12:30 | |
(2nd & 4 at FSU 40) Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 37 - ND 17, FSU 20 | -0.24 | 61.3% | 0.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 37 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.24 = -0.24 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.24) Score Difference (End): -3 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 17, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 38 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.3% Win Probability (After): 62.2% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 11:52 | |
(3rd & 1 at FSU 37) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 24, FSU 20 | 4.05 | 58.3% | 15.9% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.95 = 4.05 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.05) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 24, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.3% Win Probability (After): 74.2% Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 11:52 | |
(Kickoff at FSU 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ND 24, FSU 20 | 0.00 | 28.9% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - 0.52 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.48) Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 24, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.9% Win Probability (After): 28.9% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 11:41 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 25) Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27 - ND 24, FSU 20 | -0.63 | 29.9% | -1.2% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 0.64 = -0.63 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.36) Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 24, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.9% Win Probability (After): 28.7% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 11:15 | |
(2nd & 8 at FSU 27) Jordan Travis pass intercepted Kyle Hamilton return for no gain to the NDame 27 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kyle Hamilton) to the NDame 31 - ND 24, FSU 20 | -2.05 | 28.8% | -5.2% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 69 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.04 - 0.10 = -2.05 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.99) Score Difference (End): 4 (6.04) Change of Possession: 1 Score: ND 24, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.8% Win Probability (After): 23.6% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 10:59 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 31) Kyren Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 29 - ND 24, FSU 20 | -1.27 | 76.5% | -1.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 71 Started Drive at: ND 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - 2.09 = -1.27 Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.09) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.82) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 24, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards Win Probability (Before): 76.5% Win Probability (After): 74.6% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 10:20 | |
(2nd & 12 at ND 29) Jack Coan sacked by Quashon Fuller for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 24 - ND 24, FSU 20 | -1.68 | 74.9% | -4.6% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 76 Started Drive at: ND 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.72 - 0.96 = -1.68 Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.96) Score Difference (End): 4 (3.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 24, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 2 plays, -7 yards Win Probability (Before): 74.9% Win Probability (After): 70.3% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 9:50 | |
(3rd & 17 at ND 24) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 55 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST down - ND 24, FSU 20 | 5.34 | 68.8% | 14.4% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 21 Started Drive at: ND 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.82 - -0.52 = 5.34 Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.48) Score Difference (End): 4 (8.82) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 24, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 48 yards Win Probability (Before): 68.8% Win Probability (After): 83.3% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 9:20 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 21) NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Michael Carmody) to the FlaSt 26 - ND 24, FSU 20 | -0.73 | 82.0% | -2.1% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 26 Started Drive at: ND 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.05 - 4.78 = -0.73 Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.78) Score Difference (End): 4 (8.05) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 24, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 48 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.0% Win Probability (After): 79.9% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 8:53 | |
(1st & 15 at FSU 26) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 17 yds to the FlaSt 9 for a 1ST down - ND 24, FSU 20 | 1.39 | 80.7% | 2.4% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 9 Started Drive at: ND 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.40 - 4.00 = 1.39 Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.00) Score Difference (End): 4 (9.40) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 24, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.7% Win Probability (After): 83.0% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 8:25 | |
(1st & Goal at FSU 9) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 1 yd to the FlaSt 8 - ND 24, FSU 20 | -0.54 | 83.2% | -0.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 8 Started Drive at: ND 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.84 - 5.38 = -0.54 Score Difference (Before): 4 (9.38) Score Difference (End): 4 (8.84) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 24, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 66 yards Win Probability (Before): 83.2% Win Probability (After): 82.5% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 7:40 | |
(2nd & Goal at FSU 8) Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 6 - ND 24, FSU 20 | -0.65 | 82.6% | -1.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 6 Started Drive at: ND 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.18 - 4.84 = -0.65 Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.84) Score Difference (End): 4 (8.18) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 24, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 68 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.6% Win Probability (After): 81.3% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 7:05 | |
(3rd & Goal at FSU 6) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 6 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 31, FSU 20 | 2.78 | 81.8% | 7.1% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99 Started Drive at: ND 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.22 = 2.78 Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.22) Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 31, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.8% Win Probability (After): 88.9% Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 7:05 | |
(Kickoff at FSU 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ND 31, FSU 20 | 0.00 | 10.4% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - -0.03 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.03) Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.03) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 31, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 10.4% Win Probability (After): 10.4% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 6:59 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 25) Jordan Travis pass incomplete - ND 31, FSU 20 | -0.51 | 10.6% | -1.4% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.60 - -0.08 = -0.51 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.08) Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.60) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 31, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 10.6% Win Probability (After): 9.2% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 6:48 | |
(2nd & 10 at FSU 25) Jashaun Corbin run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30 - ND 31, FSU 20 | -0.18 | 9.3% | -0.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.83 - -0.65 = -0.18 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.65) Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 31, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.3% Win Probability (After): 9.1% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 6:10 | |
(3rd & 5 at FSU 30) Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 33 - ND 31, FSU 20 | -0.94 | 9.0% | -0.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 67 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.70 - -0.77 = -0.94 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.77) Score Difference (End): -11 (-12.70) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 31, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.0% Win Probability (After): 8.6% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 5:39 | |
(4th & 2 at FSU 33) Jordan Travis pass intercepted Clarence Lewis return for 4 yds to the FlaSt 32 - ND 31, FSU 20 | -2.75 | 8.5% | -2.5% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 32 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.48 - -1.72 = -2.75 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-12.72) Score Difference (End): 11 (15.48) Change of Possession: 1 Score: ND 31, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.5% Win Probability (After): 6.0% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q3 5:31 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 32) Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 24 yds to the FlaSt 8 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Face Mask (4 yards) (4 Yards) to the FlaSt 4 for a 1ST down - ND 31, FSU 20 | 1.75 | 94.7% | 1.8% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 4 Started Drive at: FSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.23 - 4.48 = 1.75 Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.48) Score Difference (End): 11 (17.23) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 31, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 1 play, 28 yards Win Probability (Before): 94.7% Win Probability (After): 96.5% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 4:44 | |
(1st & Goal at FSU 4) Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 1 - ND 31, FSU 20 | 0.14 | 96.7% | -0.2% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 1 Started Drive at: FSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.38 - 6.24 = 0.14 Score Difference (Before): 11 (17.24) Score Difference (End): 11 (17.38) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 31, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 96.7% Win Probability (After): 96.5% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 4:37 | |
(2nd & Goal at FSU 1) Chris Tyree run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - ND 38, FSU 20 | 0.60 | 96.7% | 1.3% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: FSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.40 = 0.60 Score Difference (Before): 11 (17.40) Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 96.7% Win Probability (After): 98.0% Away Score: 31 (38) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q3 4:37 | |
(Kickoff at FSU 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ND 38, FSU 20 | 0.00 | 2.4% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.51 - -0.51 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.51) Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.51) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.4% Win Probability (After): 2.4% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 4:33 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 25) Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Andrew Parchment - ND 38, FSU 20 | -0.60 | 2.4% | -0.1% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.10 - -0.50 = -0.60 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.50) Score Difference (End): -18 (-19.10) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.4% Win Probability (After): 2.3% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 4:20 | |
(2nd & 10 at FSU 25) Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 17 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 20 | 2.06 | 2.2% | 0.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 58 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - -1.10 = 2.06 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-19.10) Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.05) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.2% Win Probability (After): 2.7% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 3:50 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 42) Jordan Travis run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 45 - ND 38, FSU 20 | -0.36 | 2.5% | -0.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 55 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - 0.94 = -0.36 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.06) Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.42) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.5% Win Probability (After): 2.4% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 3:25 | |
(2nd & 7 at FSU 45) Treshaun Ward run for 19 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 20 | 2.22 | 2.6% | 0.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 36 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 0.60 = 2.22 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.40) Score Difference (End): -18 (-15.18) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.6% Win Probability (After): 3.4% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 3:06 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 36) Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the NDame 34 - ND 38, FSU 20 | -0.47 | 3.4% | -0.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 34 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.34 - 2.81 = -0.47 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-15.19) Score Difference (End): -18 (-15.66) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 3.4% Win Probability (After): 3.1% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 2:30 | |
(2nd & 8 at ND 34) Treshaun Ward run for 6 yds to the NDame 28 - ND 38, FSU 20 | 0.65 | 2.8% | 0.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 28 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.97 - 2.32 = 0.65 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-15.68) Score Difference (End): -18 (-15.03) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.8% Win Probability (After): 3.5% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 2:19 | |
(3rd & 2 at ND 28) Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Malik McClain - ND 38, FSU 20 | -1.53 | 3.0% | -0.4% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 28 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.45 - 2.98 = -1.53 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-15.02) Score Difference (End): -18 (-16.55) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 47 yards Win Probability (Before): 3.0% Win Probability (After): 2.6% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 2:13 | |
(4th & 2 at ND 28) Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 20 | 2.29 | 2.6% | 1.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 24 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.75 - 1.46 = 2.29 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-16.54) Score Difference (End): -18 (-14.25) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.6% Win Probability (After): 3.6% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q3 1:30 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 24) Jashaun Corbin run for 9 yds to the NDame 15 - ND 38, FSU 20 | 1.31 | 3.3% | 0.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 15 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.09 - 3.78 = 1.31 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.22) Score Difference (End): -18 (-12.91) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 60 yards Win Probability (Before): 3.3% Win Probability (After): 4.1% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 1:13 | |
(2nd & 1 at ND 15) Jashaun Corbin run for no gain to the NDame 15 - ND 38, FSU 20 | -0.51 | 4.3% | -0.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.59 - 5.10 = -0.51 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-12.90) Score Difference (End): -18 (-13.41) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 60 yards Win Probability (Before): 4.3% Win Probability (After): 4.1% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 0:25 | |
(3rd & 1 at ND 15) Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the NDame 14 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 20 | 0.22 | 3.4% | 0.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 14 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.79 - 4.56 = 0.22 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-13.44) Score Difference (End): -18 (-13.21) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 61 yards Win Probability (Before): 3.4% Win Probability (After): 4.2% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 0:10 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 14) Treshaun Ward run for 13 yds to the NDame 1 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 20 | 1.60 | 3.4% | 1.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 1 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.37 - 4.77 = 1.60 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-13.23) Score Difference (End): -18 (-11.63) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 3.4% Win Probability (After): 4.7% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q3 0:00 | |
(1st & Goal at ND 1) Jordan Travis run for no gain to the NDame 1 - ND 38, FSU 20 | -0.21 | 4.5% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 1 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.08 - 6.29 = -0.21 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-11.71) Score Difference (End): -18 (-11.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 4.5% Win Probability (After): 4.5% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 14:55 | |
(2nd & Goal at ND 1) Jashaun Corbin run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 3 - ND 38, FSU 20 | -1.45 | 4.1% | -0.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 3 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.60 - 6.05 = -1.45 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-11.95) Score Difference (End): -18 (-13.40) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 14 plays, 72 yards Win Probability (Before): 4.1% Win Probability (After): 3.2% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 14:07 | |
(3rd & Goal at ND 3) FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Baveon Johnson) to the NDame 8 - ND 38, FSU 20 | -0.98 | 3.2% | -0.4% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 8 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.63 - 4.61 = -0.98 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-13.39) Score Difference (End): -18 (-14.37) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 14 plays, 72 yards Win Probability (Before): 3.2% Win Probability (After): 2.8% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
|||||
| Q4 13:55 | |
(3rd & Goal at ND 8) Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 13:55 - ND 38, FSU 20 | 0.00 | 2.3% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.63 - 3.63 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.37) Score Difference (End): -18 (-14.37) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 20 Drive Summary: 14 plays, 72 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.3% Win Probability (After): 2.3% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 13:42 | |
(3rd & Goal at ND 8) Andrew Parchment 8 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Jordan Travis Pass to Keyshawn Helton for Two-Point Conversion) - ND 38, FSU 28 | 4.43 | 2.0% | 7.5% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99 Started Drive at: FSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.57 = 4.43 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.43) Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 15 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.0% Win Probability (After): 9.6% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 20 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 13:47 | |
(Kickoff at ND 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ND 38, FSU 28 | 0.00 | 93.4% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 1.95 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.95) Score Difference (End): 10 (11.95) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 93.4% Win Probability (After): 93.4% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 13:42 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 25) Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 27 - ND 38, FSU 28 | -0.47 | 93.4% | -0.5% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 1.95 = -0.47 Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.95) Score Difference (End): 10 (11.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 93.4% Win Probability (After): 92.9% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 13:04 | |
(2nd & 8 at ND 27) Jack Coan run for 4 yds to the NDame 31 - ND 38, FSU 28 | -0.08 | 93.4% | -0.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 69 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.32 - 1.40 = -0.08 Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.40) Score Difference (End): 10 (11.32) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 93.4% Win Probability (After): 92.7% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 12:31 | |
(3rd & 4 at ND 31) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 6 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 28 | 1.46 | 93.1% | 0.8% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 63 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.62 - 1.16 = 1.46 Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.16) Score Difference (End): 10 (12.62) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 93.1% Win Probability (After): 93.9% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 11:57 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 37) Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 40 - ND 38, FSU 28 | -0.50 | 93.4% | 0.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 60 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 2.67 = -0.50 Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.67) Score Difference (End): 10 (12.17) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 93.4% Win Probability (After): 93.7% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 11:24 | |
(2nd & 7 at ND 40) Kyren Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 38 - ND 38, FSU 28 | -1.02 | 93.9% | -1.2% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 62 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 2.37 = -1.02 Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.37) Score Difference (End): 10 (11.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 93.9% Win Probability (After): 92.6% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 10:53 | |
(3rd & 9 at ND 38) Jack Coan run for no gain to the NDame 38 - ND 38, FSU 28 | -1.32 | 92.6% | -0.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 1.33 = -1.32 Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.33) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.01) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 92.6% Win Probability (After): 91.9% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 10:19 | |
(4th & 9 at ND 38) Jay Bramblett punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 12 - ND 38, FSU 28 | 0.16 | 92.6% | -2.2% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 88 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.17 - 0.01 = 0.16 Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.01) Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.17) Change of Possession: 1 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 92.6% Win Probability (After): 90.4% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q4 10:12 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 12) Lawrance Toafili run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 28 | 0.57 | 9.2% | 0.5% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 78 Started Drive at: FSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - -0.04 = 0.57 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.04) Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.2% Win Probability (After): 9.7% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 9:55 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 22) Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 23 - ND 38, FSU 28 | -0.50 | 9.7% | -0.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 77 Started Drive at: FSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 0.52 = -0.50 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.48) Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.98) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.7% Win Probability (After): 9.4% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 9:30 | |
(2nd & 9 at FSU 23) Jordan Travis run for 25 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 28 | 2.43 | 8.0% | 3.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 52 Started Drive at: FSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - -0.03 = 2.43 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.03) Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.60) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.0% Win Probability (After): 11.3% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 9:09 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 48) Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jashaun Corbin - ND 38, FSU 28 | -0.46 | 11.1% | -0.6% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52 Started Drive at: FSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 2.33 = -0.46 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.67) Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.13) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 36 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.1% Win Probability (After): 10.5% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 9:02 | |
(2nd & 10 at FSU 48) McKenzie Milton pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 22 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 28 | 1.83 | 9.9% | 4.0% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 30 Started Drive at: FSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.65 - 1.82 = 1.83 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.18) Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 58 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.9% Win Probability (After): 13.8% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 8:39 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 30) McKenzie Milton sacked by Kurt Hinish for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 33 - ND 38, FSU 28 | -1.14 | 12.3% | -1.4% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 33 Started Drive at: FSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.46 - 3.59 = -1.14 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.41) Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.54) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 12.3% Win Probability (After): 11.0% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 7:36 | |
(2nd & 13 at ND 33) Jashaun Corbin run for 9 yds to the NDame 24 - ND 38, FSU 28 | 0.82 | 9.0% | 2.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 24 Started Drive at: FSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.16 - 2.35 = 0.82 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.65) Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.84) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 64 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.0% Win Probability (After): 11.7% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 7:28 | |
(3rd & 4 at ND 24) Jashaun Corbin run for 5 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 28 | 1.15 | 10.3% | 2.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 19 Started Drive at: FSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.24 - 3.10 = 1.15 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.90) Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.76) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 69 yards Win Probability (Before): 10.3% Win Probability (After): 13.0% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 7:07 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 19) McKenzie Milton pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 21 - ND 38, FSU 28 | -1.10 | 12.0% | -1.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 21 Started Drive at: FSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.22 - 4.32 = -1.10 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.68) Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.78) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 67 yards Win Probability (Before): 12.0% Win Probability (After): 10.2% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 6:34 | |
(2nd & 12 at ND 21) McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 1 yd to the NDame 20 - ND 38, FSU 28 | -0.47 | 8.8% | -0.1% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 20 Started Drive at: FSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.76 - 3.24 = -0.47 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.76) Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.24) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 68 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.8% Win Probability (After): 8.7% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 6:06 | |
(3rd & 11 at ND 20) McKenzie Milton pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 15 yds to the NDame 5 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 28 | 2.81 | 7.2% | 7.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 5 Started Drive at: FSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.50 - 2.69 = 2.81 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.31) Score Difference (End): -10 (-4.50) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 83 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.2% Win Probability (After): 14.7% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 5:54 | |
(1st & Goal at ND 5) NOTRE DAME Penalty, Substitution Infraction (3 Yards) to the NDame 2 - ND 38, FSU 28 | 0.50 | 13.8% | 2.2% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 2 Started Drive at: FSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.99 - 5.48 = 0.50 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-4.52) Score Difference (End): -10 (-4.01) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 28 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 83 yards Win Probability (Before): 13.8% Win Probability (After): 16.0% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 5:36 | |
(1st & Goal at ND 2) Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) - ND 38, FSU 35 | 1.02 | 14.8% | 11.2% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99 Started Drive at: FSU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.98 = 1.02 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-4.02) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 35 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 85 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.8% Win Probability (After): 26.0% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 28 (35) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 5:36 | |
(Kickoff at ND 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ND 38, FSU 35 | 0.00 | 79.0% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 1.12 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.12) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.12) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 35 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.0% Win Probability (After): 79.0% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 5:30 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 25) Coan, Jack pass incomplete, PENALTY FLORIDAST offside 5 yards to the NOTREDAME30, NO PLAY. - ND 38, FSU 35 | 0.71 | 79.2% | 1.3% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 1.12 = 0.71 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.12) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 35 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.2% Win Probability (After): 80.5% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 5:22 | |
(1st & 5 at ND 30) Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 31 - ND 38, FSU 35 | -0.60 | 80.9% | -1.5% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 69 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.27 - 1.87 = -0.60 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.87) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.27) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 35 Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.9% Win Probability (After): 79.4% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 5:01 | |
(2nd & 4 at ND 31) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael Mayer - ND 38, FSU 35 | -0.76 | 80.2% | -3.0% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - 1.41 = -0.76 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.41) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.65) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 35 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.2% Win Probability (After): 77.2% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 4:49 | |
(3rd & 4 at ND 31) Jack Coan sacked by Keir Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 24 - ND 38, FSU 35 | -1.86 | 78.8% | -13.1% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 76 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.23 - 0.63 = -1.86 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.63) Score Difference (End): 3 (1.77) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 35 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -6 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.8% Win Probability (After): 65.8% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 4:15 | |
(4th & 11 at ND 24) Jay Bramblett punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 29 - ND 38, FSU 35 | 0.15 | 65.2% | 3.2% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 71 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.13 - -1.28 = 0.15 Score Difference (Before): 3 (1.72) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.87) Change of Possession: 1 Score: ND 38, FSU 35 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -6 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.2% Win Probability (After): 68.3% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q4 4:07 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 29) Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 33 - ND 38, FSU 35 | -0.31 | 30.5% | -0.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 67 Started Drive at: FSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.78 - 1.09 = -0.31 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.91) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.22) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 35 Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 30.5% Win Probability (After): 29.9% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 3:51 | |
(2nd & 6 at FSU 33) Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 37 - ND 38, FSU 35 | 0.14 | 30.5% | 0.2% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 63 Started Drive at: FSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 0.88 = 0.14 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.12) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.98) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 35 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 30.5% Win Probability (After): 30.7% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 3:33 | |
(3rd & 2 at FSU 37) McKenzie Milton pass complete to Darion Williamson for 12 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 35 | 1.21 | 30.4% | 6.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 51 Started Drive at: FSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.16 - 0.95 = 1.21 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.05) Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.84) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 35 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 30.4% Win Probability (After): 36.6% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 3:10 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 49) McKenzie Milton run for 5 yds to the NDame 46 - ND 38, FSU 35 | 0.32 | 33.0% | 4.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 46 Started Drive at: FSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.28 - 1.96 = 0.32 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.04) Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.72) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 35 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 33.0% Win Probability (After): 37.3% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 2:43 | |
(2nd & 5 at ND 46) Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 35 | 0.56 | 32.5% | 5.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 41 Started Drive at: FSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.53 - 1.97 = 0.56 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.03) Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 35 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.5% Win Probability (After): 38.1% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 2:29 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 41) Treshaun Ward run for 12 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 35 | 0.89 | 36.6% | 15.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 29 Started Drive at: FSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 2.39 = 0.89 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.61) Score Difference (End): -3 (0.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 35 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 36.6% Win Probability (After): 51.9% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 1:58 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 29) McKenzie Milton run for 4 yds to the NDame 25 - ND 38, FSU 35 | 0.27 | 52.6% | 1.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 25 Started Drive at: FSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.53 - 3.27 = 0.27 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.27) Score Difference (End): -3 (0.53) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 35 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 46 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.6% Win Probability (After): 54.2% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 1:22 | |
(2nd & 6 at ND 25) Lawrance Toafili run for no gain to the NDame 25 - ND 38, FSU 35 | -0.50 | 55.7% | -14.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25 Started Drive at: FSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.88 - 3.38 = -0.50 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.38) Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.12) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 35 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 46 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.7% Win Probability (After): 41.4% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 0:45 | |
(3rd & 6 at ND 25) McKenzie Milton pass incomplete - ND 38, FSU 35 | -1.13 | 43.7% | -16.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25 Started Drive at: FSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 2.95 = -1.13 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.05) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.18) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 35 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 46 yards Win Probability (Before): 43.7% Win Probability (After): 26.8% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (35) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| Q4 0:40 | |
(4th & 6 at ND 25) Ryan Fitzgerald 43 yd FG GOOD - ND 38, FSU 38 | 1.08 | 25.3% | 26.3% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25 Started Drive at: FSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.92 = 1.08 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.08) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 46 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.3% Win Probability (After): 51.6% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 35 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q4 0:40 | |
(Kickoff at ND 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 58 yds for a touchback - ND 38, FSU 38 | 0.00 | 51.9% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.71 - 0.71 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.71) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.71) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.9% Win Probability (After): 51.9% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 0:33 | |
(1st & 10 at ND 25) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 4 yds to the NDame 29 - ND 38, FSU 38 | 0.05 | 62.8% | -4.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - 0.79 = 0.05 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.79) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.84) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 62.8% Win Probability (After): 58.6% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 0:25 | |
(2nd & 6 at ND 29) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 22 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST down - ND 38, FSU 38 | 1.49 | 58.5% | 23.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 49 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.12 - 0.63 = 1.49 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.63) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.12) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.5% Win Probability (After): 82.0% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 0:11 | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 49) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr. - ND 38, FSU 38 | 0.38 | 59.8% | 11.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.59 - 1.21 = 0.38 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.21) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.59) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.8% Win Probability (After): 71.0% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 0:11 | |
(2nd & 10 at FSU 49) Timeout FLORIDA ST, clock 00:11 - ND 38, FSU 38 | 0.00 | 65.9% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.59 - 1.59 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.59) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.59) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.9% Win Probability (After): 65.9% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 0:05 | |
(2nd & 10 at FSU 49) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael Mayer - ND 38, FSU 38 | 0.00 | 67.8% | -5.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.00 - 1.01 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.01) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.8% Win Probability (After): 61.9% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q4 0:00 | |
(3rd & 10 at FSU 49) Jack Coan pass intercepted Travis Jay return for 5 yds to the FlaSt 16 - ND 38, FSU 38 | -0.60 | 72.2% | -17.5% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 84 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.54 = -0.60 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.54) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.06) Change of Possession: 1 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 72.2% Win Probability (After): 54.7% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| OT | |
(1st & 10 at ND 25) Jashaun Corbin run for 5 yds to the NDame 20 - ND 38, FSU 38 | 0.21 | 84.0% | 3.5% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 20 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 2.18 = 0.21 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.18) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 84.0% Win Probability (After): 87.6% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| OT | |
(2nd & 5 at ND 20) Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the NDame 19 - ND 38, FSU 38 | 0.07 | 87.6% | 0.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 19 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 2.39 = 0.07 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.39) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 87.6% Win Probability (After): 88.0% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| OT | |
(3rd & 4 at ND 19) McKenzie Milton pass incomplete - ND 38, FSU 38 | 0.15 | 88.0% | -0.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.62 - 2.47 = 0.15 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.47) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.62) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.0% Win Probability (After): 87.3% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
|||||
| OT | |
(4th & 4 at ND 19) Ryan Fitzgerald 37 yd FG MISSED - ND 38, FSU 38 | -2.64 | 87.3% | -34.7% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Missed Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 80 Started Drive at: ND 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 2.62 = -2.64 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.62) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.02) Change of Possession: 1 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 87.3% Win Probability (After): 52.5% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| OT | |
(1st & 10 at FSU 25) Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 22 - ND 38, FSU 38 | 0.21 | 82.6% | 2.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 22 Started Drive at: ND 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 2.18 = 0.21 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.18) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.6% Win Probability (After): 85.4% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| OT | |
(2nd & 7 at FSU 22) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 23 - ND 38, FSU 38 | 0.03 | 85.4% | 0.1% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 23 Started Drive at: ND 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 2.39 = 0.03 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.39) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.4% Win Probability (After): 85.5% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| OT | |
(3rd & 8 at FSU 23) Kyren Williams run for no gain to the FlaSt 23 - ND 38, FSU 38 | 0.15 | 85.5% | -0.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23 Started Drive at: ND 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 2.43 = 0.15 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.43) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.58) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.5% Win Probability (After): 85.2% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| OT | |
(4th & 8 at FSU 23) Timeout FLORIDA ST, clock 00:00 - ND 38, FSU 38 | 0.00 | 85.2% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23 Started Drive at: ND 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 2.58 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.58) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.58) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 38, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.2% Win Probability (After): 85.2% Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| OT | |
(4th & 8 at FSU 23) Jonathan Doerer 41 yd FG GOOD - ND 41, FSU 38 | 0.42 | 85.2% | 14.8% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23 Started Drive at: ND 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.58 = 0.42 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.58) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: ND 41, FSU 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.2% Win Probability (After): 100.0% Away Score: 38 (41) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||