NC State 30 @ Miami 31

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 6.33 | Odds: NCST -3.5, O/U 54.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 152 ESPN team id 2390
Total Plays 7986
Total EPA 10.610.09
  Offensive EPA 5.937.38
  Special Teams EPA 5.500.51
  Penalty EPA 1.861.26
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA -2.690.94
Production ESPN team id 152 ESPN team id 2390
Scrimmage Plays 6471
  Yards 436401
  Yards/Play 6.815.65
  EPA 5.937.38
  EPA/Play 0.090.10
Passes 43 (67%)37 (52%)
  Yards 310325
  Yards/Play 7.218.78
  EPA 2.5117.45
  EPA/Play 0.060.47
Rushes 21 (33%)34 (48%)
  Yards 123110
  Yards/Play 5.863.24
  EPA 3.42-10.08
  EPA/Play 0.16-0.30
Rushing ESPN team id 152 ESPN team id 2390
Scrimmage Plays 6471
Rushes 21 (33%)34 (48%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 0 (0%)2 (6%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 0 (0%)0 (0%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 6 (29%)10 (29%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 12 (57%)18 (53%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 8 (38%)14 (41%)
OL Line Yards 15.845.1
  Per Carry 0.751.33
Highlight Yards 67.527.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 8.441.96
Explosiveness ESPN team id 152 ESPN team id 2390
Total Plays 7986
Scrimmage Plays 6471
Explosive Plays 8 (12%)5 (7%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 6 (14%)4 (11%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 2 (10%)1 (3%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -20.84-11.26
  EPA/Play -0.37-0.17
  When Passing -16.190.89
    EPA/Play -0.380.02
  When Rushing -4.64-12.15
    EPA/Play -0.24-0.37
Situational ESPN team id 152 ESPN team id 2390
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 23 (36%)28 (39%)
  When Passing 15 (35%)18 (49%)
  When Rushing 8 (38%)10 (29%)
  On Standard Downs 18 (46%)20 (44%)
  On Passing Downs 5 (20%)8 (31%)
  On Early Downs 19 (40%)21 (40%)
  On Late Downs 4 (25%)7 (39%)
  During "Middle 8" 6 (55%)3 (25%)
Early Downs 4853
  First Downs Created 13 (27%)8 (15%)
  EPA 8.41-0.08
  EPA/Play 0.180.00
  Passes 28 (58%)26 (49%)
  Rushes 20 (42%)27 (51%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 12 (43%)11 (42%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 7 (35%)10 (37%)
"Middle 8" Plays 1112
  EPA 5.60-1.44
  EPA/play 0.51-0.12
  Passes 8 (73%)6 (50%)
  Rushes 3 (27%)6 (50%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 3 (38%)2 (33%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 3 (100%)1 (17%)
Drives ESPN team id 152 ESPN team id 2390
Total 1314
Avg Starting Field Position Own 29Own 23
Plays/Drive 6.196.66
Yards/Drive 41.5343.99
Available Yards % 58%57%
Defensive ESPN team id 152 ESPN team id 2390
Scrimmage Plays 7164
Stop Rate 37%38%
Havoc Plays Created 14 (20%)4 (6%)
  Passing 6 (16%)1 (2%)
  Rushing 8 (24%)3 (14%)
TFLs Generated 144
  Passing 61
  Rushing 83
Sacks Generated 4 (11%)1 (2%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 00
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 152 ESPN team id 2390
Turnovers 00
  Fumbles 01
  Fumbles Lost 00
  Fumbles Recovered 01
  Interceptions 00
Turnover Margin 00
Expected Turnovers 0.50.5
Expected Turnover Margin 0.00.0
Turnover Luck (pts) 0.00.0
Special Teams ESPN team id 152 ESPN team id 2390
Total Plays 16 15
Total EPA 5.5 0.51
  Field Goal EPA 4.14 0.02
  Punting EPA 1.55 1.3
  Kickoff Return EPA -0.2 -0.81

NC State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Devin Leary 24/42, 310 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 70.7 xQBR 7.21 0.06 2.51 35% -8.0%
Rush attempts
Trent Pennix 1 carry, 40 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 40.00 5.43 5.43 100% 20.0%
Devin Leary 2 carries, 13 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.50 0.66 1.33 50% 12.0%
Ricky Person Jr. 9 carries, 54 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 -0.05 -0.49 33% 6.0%
Thayer Thomas 1 carry, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.51 -0.51 0% -3.0%
Zonovan Knight 8 carries, 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.29 -2.34 38% -10.0%
Pass targets
Thayer Thomas 7 catches (8 targets), 71 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.14 0.82 6.52 62% 17.0%
Emeka Emezie 3 catches (5 targets), 75 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 25.00 0.80 4.01 60% 16.0%
Christopher Toudle 1 catch (1 target), 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 20.00 2.71 2.71 100% 8.0%
Anthony Smith 1 catch (2 targets), 44 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 44.00 1.26 2.51 50% 14.0%
Keyon Lesane 2 catches (2 targets), 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.50 0.59 1.17 50% 3.0%
Zonovan Knight 3 catches (3 targets), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 -0.11 -0.32 33% 0.0%
Trent Pennix 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.12 -1.12 0% -5.0%
Porter Rooks 3 catches (6 targets), 36 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.00 -0.42 -2.52 17% -8.0%
Ricky Person Jr. 3 catches (6 targets), 19 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.33 -0.43 -2.56 17% -17.0%
Devin Carter 1 catch (6 targets), 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.00 -0.75 -4.49 17% -18.0%

Miami [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Tyler Van Dyke 25/33, 325 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 4 Scks, 81.9 xQBR 8.78 0.47 17.45 49% 55.0%
Rush attempts
Tyler Van Dyke 5 carries, 23 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.60 -0.31 -1.55 40% -6.0%
TEAM 4 carries, -6 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) -1.50 -0.41 -1.64 0% 0.0%
Cody Brown 4 carries, 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.50 -0.74 -2.95 0% -13.0%
Jaylan Knighton 21 carries, 83 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.95 -0.19 -3.95 38% -17.0%
Pass targets
Charleston Rambo 9 catches (9 targets), 127 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.11 1.24 11.16 78% 47.0%
Jaylan Knighton 6 catches (6 targets), 83 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.83 1.40 8.41 50% 14.0%
Will Mallory 3 catches (3 targets), 34 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.33 1.27 3.80 100% 27.0%
Elijah Arroyo 1 catch (1 target), 29 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 29.00 2.22 2.22 100% 4.0%
Key'Shawn Smith 4 catches (4 targets), 31 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.75 0.50 2.02 75% 2.0%
Mike Harley 2 catches (3 targets), 21 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.50 0.28 0.85 33% 1.0%
Xavier Restrepo 0 catches (4 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.62 -2.48 0% -6.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 13:41 ESPN team id 2390 (4th & 1 at MIA 47) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 53 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) - NCST 3, MIA 14 6.15 52.6% 20.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 99

Started Drive at: MIA 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.85 = 6.15

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.85)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 72.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 0:55 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 7 at NCST 34) Trent Pennix run for 40 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST down - NCST 20, MIA 24 5.43 31.6% 19.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 26

Started Drive at: NCST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.15 - -1.27 = 5.43

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-5.27)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.6%

Win Probability (After): 51.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:15 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at MIA 27) Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 27 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) - NCST 17, MIA 14 4.76 58.8% 11.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: NCST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.24 = 4.76

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.76)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.8%

Win Probability (After): 70.3%

Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 14:51 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 25) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 60 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST down - NCST 17, MIA 14 3.99 33.3% 12.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 15

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.61 - 0.62 = 3.99

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.38)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.3%

Win Probability (After): 46.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:59 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & Goal at MIA 7) Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 7 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) - NCST 10, MIA 14 3.24 32.2% 18.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.76 = 3.24

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.24)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.2%

Win Probability (After): 50.3%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:50 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 2 at NCST 25) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 25 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) - NCST 0, MIA 7 3.21 42.7% 9.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 99

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.79 = 3.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.79)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.7%

Win Probability (After): 52.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:50 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 10 at MIA 25) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 22 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST down - NCST 0, MIA 0 3.21 34.2% 9.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 53

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.62 - -0.59 = 3.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.59)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:30 ESPN team id 2390 (4th & 5 at NCST 10) NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Cory Durden) to the NCSt 5 for a 1ST down - NCST 17, MIA 14 3.20 39.5% 11.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 5

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.73 - 2.54 = 3.20

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.46)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.5%

Win Probability (After): 50.9%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 8:55 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 38) Devin Leary pass complete to Anthony Smith for 44 yds to the MiaFl 18 for a 1ST down - NCST 27, MIA 31 2.85 38.2% 16.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 18

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.68 - 1.84 = 2.85

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.16)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.2%

Win Probability (After): 54.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:35 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 7 at NCST 35) Devin Leary pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 20 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST down - NCST 0, MIA 7 2.71 43.9% 7.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 45

Started Drive at: NCST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.32 - -0.39 = 2.71

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.39)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.9%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 13:41 ESPN team id 2390 (4th & 1 at MIA 47) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 53 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) - NCST 3, MIA 14 6.15 52.6% 20.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 99

Started Drive at: MIA 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.85 = 6.15

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.85)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 72.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 0:55 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 7 at NCST 34) Trent Pennix run for 40 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST down - NCST 20, MIA 24 5.43 31.6% 19.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 26

Started Drive at: NCST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.15 - -1.27 = 5.43

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-5.27)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.6%

Win Probability (After): 51.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 8:59 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & Goal at MIA 7) Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 7 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) - NCST 10, MIA 14 3.24 32.2% 18.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.76 = 3.24

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.24)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.2%

Win Probability (After): 50.3%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:30 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 16 at MIA 42) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 21 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST down - NCST 30, MIA 31 2.20 67.8% 17.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 37

Started Drive at: MIA 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.62 - 0.42 = 2.20

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.42)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.8%

Win Probability (After): 85.5%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 8:55 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 38) Devin Leary pass complete to Anthony Smith for 44 yds to the MiaFl 18 for a 1ST down - NCST 27, MIA 31 2.85 38.2% 16.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 18

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.68 - 1.84 = 2.85

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.16)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.2%

Win Probability (After): 54.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:20 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 6 at NCST 27) Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 46 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST down - NCST 10, MIA 14 2.58 44.9% 14.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 27

Started Drive at: NCST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.76 - 0.18 = 2.58

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.82)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.9%

Win Probability (After): 59.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:00 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 10 at NCST 44) Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 2 yds to the NCSt 46 - NCST 30, MIA 31 -1.06 49.7% -14.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 54

Started Drive at: NCST 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 1.11 = -1.06

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.11)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.7%

Win Probability (After): 35.7%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:30 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 13 at MIA 8) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 4 - NCST 30, MIA 31 -0.76 56.1% -14.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 96

Started Drive at: MIA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.41 - -0.66 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 1 (0.34)

Score Difference (End): 1 (-0.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.1%

Win Probability (After): 42.1%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:45 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 15 at MIA 17) Devin Leary 17 Yd Run (Christopher Dunn Kick) - NCST 27, MIA 24 2.63 52.4% 13.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99

Started Drive at: NCST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.37 = 2.63

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.37)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.4%

Win Probability (After): 66.1%

Away Score: 20 (27) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:51 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 25) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 60 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST down - NCST 17, MIA 14 3.99 33.3% 12.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 15

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.61 - 0.62 = 3.99

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.38)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.3%

Win Probability (After): 46.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 10:50 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 2 at NCST 25) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 25 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) - NCST 0, MIA 7 3.21 42.7% 9.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 99

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.79 = 3.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.79)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.7%

Win Probability (After): 52.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:24 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 8 at MIA 16) Christopher Dunn 33 yd FG GOOD - NCST 3, MIA 7 0.63 46.9% 9.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: NCST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.37 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.63)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.9%

Win Probability (After): 56.0%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:41 ESPN team id 2390 (4th & 1 at MIA 47) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 53 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) - NCST 3, MIA 14 6.15 52.6% 20.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 99

Started Drive at: MIA 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.85 = 6.15

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.85)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 72.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 8:59 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & Goal at MIA 7) Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 7 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) - NCST 10, MIA 14 3.24 32.2% 18.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.76 = 3.24

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.24)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.2%

Win Probability (After): 50.3%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:15 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at MIA 27) Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 27 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) - NCST 17, MIA 14 4.76 58.8% 11.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: NCST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.24 = 4.76

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.76)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.8%

Win Probability (After): 70.3%

Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 13:24 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & Goal at NCST 5) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 5 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) - NCST 17, MIA 21 1.28 50.8% 9.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.72 = 1.28

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.72)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.8%

Win Probability (After): 59.9%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:09 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 9 at MIA 27) Christopher Dunn 44 yd FG GOOD - NCST 20, MIA 21 1.65 40.0% 9.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 27

Started Drive at: NCST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.35 = 1.65

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.65)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.0%

Win Probability (After): 49.8%

Away Score: 17 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:22 ESPN team id 2390 (4th & 3 at NCST 5) Andres Borregales 22 yd FG GOOD - NCST 20, MIA 24 0.02 64.9% 6.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 5

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.98 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.98)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.9%

Win Probability (After): 71.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:45 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 15 at MIA 17) Devin Leary 17 Yd Run (Christopher Dunn Kick) - NCST 27, MIA 24 2.63 52.4% 13.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99

Started Drive at: NCST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.37 = 2.63

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.37)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.4%

Win Probability (After): 66.1%

Away Score: 20 (27) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:34 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & Goal at NCST 4) Charleston Rambo 4 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick) - NCST 27, MIA 31 1.58 59.6% 9.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.42 = 1.58

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.42)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.6%

Win Probability (After): 69.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 24 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:39 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 15 at MIA 23) Christopher Dunn 40 yd FG GOOD - NCST 30, MIA 31 1.39 35.6% 8.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.61 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.39)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.6%

Win Probability (After): 44.5%

Away Score: 27 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 152 (Kickoff at NCST 35) Andres Borregales kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NCST 0, MIA 0 0.00 62.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.3%

Win Probability (After): 62.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:56 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 25) Devin Leary pass incomplete - NCST 0, MIA 0 -0.68 67.5% -3.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - 0.89 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.89)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.5%

Win Probability (After): 64.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:46 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 10 at NCST 25) Zonovan Knight run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 21 - NCST 0, MIA 0 -1.85 66.8% -5.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 79

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.49 - 0.36 = -1.85

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.36)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.8%

Win Probability (After): 61.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:52 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 14 at NCST 21) Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 6 yds to the NCSt 27 - NCST 0, MIA 0 -0.77 60.0% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 73

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.06 - -1.29 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.29)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.0%

Win Probability (After): 60.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:27 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 8 at NCST 27) Trenton Gill punt for 55 yds , Jacolby George returns for 7 yds to the MiaFl 25 - NCST 0, MIA 0 0.82 59.5% 1.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 75

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.10 - -1.92 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.92)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.10)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 0, MIA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.5%

Win Probability (After): 60.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 13:27 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 25) MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Key'Shawn Smith) to the MiaFl 20 - NCST 0, MIA 0 -0.73 38.9% -3.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 80

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.31 - 1.04 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.04)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.9%

Win Probability (After): 36.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:10 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 15 at MIA 20) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 5 yds to the MiaFl 25 - NCST 0, MIA 0 0.10 36.2% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 75

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.40 - 0.30 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.30)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.2%

Win Probability (After): 37.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:57 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 10 at MIA 25) Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete - NCST 0, MIA 0 -1.07 37.7% -3.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.63 - 0.44 = -1.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.44)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.7%

Win Probability (After): 34.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:50 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 10 at MIA 25) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 22 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST down - NCST 0, MIA 0 3.21 34.2% 9.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 53

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.62 - -0.59 = 3.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.59)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:30 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 47) Van Dyke, Tyler pass incomplete, PENALTY NCSTATE holding (Ingle, Tanner) 10 yards to the NCSTATE43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI. - NCST 0, MIA 0 0.71 42.5% 2.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 43

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.33 - 2.62 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.5%

Win Probability (After): 44.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:19 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at NCST 43) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 5 yds to the NCSt 38 - NCST 0, MIA 0 0.08 44.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 38

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - 3.33 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.33)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.0%

Win Probability (After): 43.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:51 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 5 at NCST 38) Tyler Van Dyke run for 5 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST down - NCST 0, MIA 0 0.69 43.2% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 33

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.05 - 3.36 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.36)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.2%

Win Probability (After): 44.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:16 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at NCST 33) Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier Restrepo - NCST 0, MIA 0 -0.60 43.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - 4.01 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.4%

Win Probability (After): 43.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:05 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 10 at NCST 33) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 8 yds to the NCSt 25 - NCST 0, MIA 0 0.32 43.0% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 25

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.74 - 3.42 = 0.32

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.42)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.0%

Win Probability (After): 43.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:50 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 2 at NCST 25) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 25 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) - NCST 0, MIA 7 3.21 42.7% 9.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 99

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.79 = 3.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.79)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.7%

Win Probability (After): 52.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:50 ESPN team id 152 (Kickoff at NCST 35) Andres Borregales kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NCST 0, MIA 7 0.00 45.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - -0.04 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.04)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.3%

Win Probability (After): 45.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:35 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 25) Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 22 - NCST 0, MIA 7 -1.08 45.0% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 78

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.13 - -0.05 = -1.08

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.05)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.0%

Win Probability (After): 43.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:07 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 13 at NCST 22) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr. - NCST 0, MIA 7 -0.82 42.1% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.11 - -1.29 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.29)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.1%

Win Probability (After): 41.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:07 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 13 at NCST 22) NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 17 - NCST 0, MIA 7 -0.23 40.4% -0.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 83

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.49 - -2.26 = -0.23

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.26)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.4%

Win Probability (After): 39.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:55 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 18 at NCST 17) Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 12 yds to the NCSt 29 - NCST 0, MIA 7 -0.15 39.7% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 71

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.47 - -2.32 = -0.15

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.32)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.7%

Win Probability (After): 40.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:17 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 6 at NCST 29) Trenton Gill punt for 59 yds , Jacolby George returns for 5 yds to the MiaFl 17 - NCST 0, MIA 7 0.35 40.5% 3.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 83

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.96 - -2.31 = 0.35

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.31)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.96)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.5%

Win Probability (After): 43.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 9:10 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 17) Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier Restrepo - NCST 0, MIA 7 -0.66 57.2% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 83

Started Drive at: MIA 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.23 - 1.89 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.89)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.2%

Win Probability (After): 55.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:57 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 10 at MIA 17) Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 18 - NCST 0, MIA 7 -0.94 54.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 82

Started Drive at: MIA 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.30 - 1.24 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.24)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.7%

Win Probability (After): 54.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:30 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 9 at MIA 18) Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 22 - NCST 0, MIA 7 -1.05 53.3% -2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 78

Started Drive at: MIA 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.79 - 0.27 = -1.05

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.27)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.3%

Win Probability (After): 50.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:58 ESPN team id 2390 (4th & 5 at MIA 22) Lou Hedley punt for 46 yds, downed at the NCSt 32 - NCST 0, MIA 7 0.08 51.5% 2.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 68

Started Drive at: MIA 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.72 - -0.80 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.20)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.28)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.5%

Win Probability (After): 54.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 7:45 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 32) Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 3 yds to the NCSt 35 - NCST 0, MIA 7 -0.32 49.2% -3.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 65

Started Drive at: NCST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.42 - 0.73 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.27)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.2%

Win Probability (After): 45.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:12 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 7 at NCST 35) Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for no gain to the NCSt 35 - NCST 0, MIA 7 -0.87 45.2% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: NCST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.42 - 0.45 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.55)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.2%

Win Probability (After): 46.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:35 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 7 at NCST 35) Devin Leary pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 20 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST down - NCST 0, MIA 7 2.71 43.9% 7.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 45

Started Drive at: NCST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.32 - -0.39 = 2.71

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.39)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.9%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:14 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at MIA 45) Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 27 yds to the MiaFl 18 for a 1ST down - NCST 0, MIA 7 2.21 51.1% 5.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 18

Started Drive at: NCST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - 2.31 = 2.21

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.69)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.1%

Win Probability (After): 56.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:20 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at MIA 18) Devin Leary run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 22 - NCST 0, MIA 7 -1.31 55.2% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 22

Started Drive at: NCST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.21 - 4.52 = -1.31

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.48)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.2%

Win Probability (After): 53.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:05 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 14 at MIA 22) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter - NCST 0, MIA 7 -0.72 51.2% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: NCST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - 3.21 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.79)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.2%

Win Probability (After): 49.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:05 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 14 at MIA 22) Timeout NC STATE, clock 05:05 - NCST 0, MIA 7 0.00 48.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: NCST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - 2.49 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.51)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.4%

Win Probability (After): 48.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:56 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 14 at MIA 22) Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 6 yds to the MiaFl 16 - NCST 0, MIA 7 -0.13 47.8% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 16

Started Drive at: NCST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.37 - 2.50 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.50)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 0, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.8%

Win Probability (After): 46.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:24 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 8 at MIA 16) Christopher Dunn 33 yd FG GOOD - NCST 3, MIA 7 0.63 46.9% 9.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: NCST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.37 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.63)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.9%

Win Probability (After): 56.0%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:24 ESPN team id 2390 (Kickoff at MIA 35) Trenton Gill kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NCST 3, MIA 7 0.00 51.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.54 - 1.54 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.54)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.2%

Win Probability (After): 51.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 4:15 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 25) Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 26 - NCST 3, MIA 7 -0.55 51.5% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - 1.54 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.54)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.5%

Win Probability (After): 50.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 3:33 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 9 at MIA 26) Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Drake Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 21 - NCST 3, MIA 7 -1.62 50.7% -3.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 79

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.64 - 0.98 = -1.62

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.98)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.7%

Win Probability (After): 47.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 3:07 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 14 at MIA 21) Tyler Van Dyke run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 26 - NCST 3, MIA 7 -0.87 47.1% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 74

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.50 - -0.63 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.37)

Score Difference (End): 4 (2.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.1%

Win Probability (After): 46.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 2:26 ESPN team id 2390 (4th & 9 at MIA 26) Lou Hedley punt for 54 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 3 yds to the NCSt 29 NC STATE Penalty, Illegal Block (Devan Boykin) to the NCSt 13 - NCST 3, MIA 7 1.38 49.0% -0.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 87

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.12 - -1.48 = 1.38

Score Difference (Before): 4 (2.50)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.88)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 3, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.0%

Win Probability (After): 48.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:09 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 13) Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 15 - NCST 3, MIA 7 -0.47 51.7% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 85

Started Drive at: NCST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.37 - 0.10 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.90)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.7%

Win Probability (After): 50.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:36 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 8 at NCST 15) Devin Leary pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 4 yds to the NCSt 19 - NCST 3, MIA 7 -0.43 50.4% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 81

Started Drive at: NCST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.73 - -0.30 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.30)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.4%

Win Probability (After): 49.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:17 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 4 at NCST 19) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter - NCST 3, MIA 7 -1.61 48.4% -4.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 81

Started Drive at: NCST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.23 - -0.62 = -1.61

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.62)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-6.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.4%

Win Probability (After): 43.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:06 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 4 at NCST 19) Trenton Gill punt for 57 yds, downed at the MiaFl 24 - NCST 3, MIA 7 0.74 42.7% 3.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 76

Started Drive at: NCST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.51 - -2.24 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-6.24)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.51)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 3, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.7%

Win Probability (After): 46.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:55 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 24) Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 26 - NCST 3, MIA 7 -0.48 54.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 74

Started Drive at: MIA 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 1.51 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.51)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.3%

Win Probability (After): 54.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 0:23 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 8 at MIA 26) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 12 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MIA 7 1.44 54.1% 2.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 62

Started Drive at: MIA 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 1.04 = 1.44

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.04)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.1%

Win Probability (After): 56.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 0:01 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 38) Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier Restrepo - NCST 3, MIA 7 -0.61 56.7% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: MIA 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.85 - 2.46 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.46)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.7%

Win Probability (After): 55.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:44 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 10 at MIA 38) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 4 yds to the MiaFl 42 - NCST 3, MIA 7 -0.59 54.6% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 58

Started Drive at: MIA 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.27 - 1.86 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.86)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.6%

Win Probability (After): 51.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:13 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 6 at MIA 42) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 5 yds to the MiaFl 47 - NCST 3, MIA 7 -0.37 52.7% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 53

Started Drive at: MIA 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.87 - 1.25 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.25)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.7%

Win Probability (After): 51.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:41 ESPN team id 2390 (4th & 1 at MIA 47) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 53 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) - NCST 3, MIA 14 6.15 52.6% 20.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 99

Started Drive at: MIA 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.85 = 6.15

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.85)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 72.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:41 ESPN team id 152 (Kickoff at NCST 35) Andres Borregales kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NCST 3, MIA 14 0.00 30.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.07 - 0.07 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.93)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.5%

Win Probability (After): 30.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:31 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 25) Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the NCSt 25 - NCST 3, MIA 14 -0.57 30.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.51 - 0.06 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.94)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.2%

Win Probability (After): 29.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:58 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 10 at NCST 25) Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MIA 14 2.57 28.5% 4.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 50

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.05 - -0.52 = 2.57

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.52)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.5%

Win Probability (After): 33.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:33 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at 50) Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 12 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MIA 14 0.93 32.9% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 38

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.95 - 2.02 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.98)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.9%

Win Probability (After): 33.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:58 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at MIA 38) Zonovan Knight run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 30 - NCST 3, MIA 14 0.72 33.5% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 30

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.71 - 2.99 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.01)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.5%

Win Probability (After): 35.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:19 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 2 at MIA 30) Zonovan Knight run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MIA 14 0.11 35.1% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 24

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.89 - 3.79 = 0.11

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.21)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.1%

Win Probability (After): 36.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:34 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at MIA 24) Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 8 yds to the MiaFl 16 - NCST 3, MIA 14 0.94 36.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 16

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.85 - 3.91 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.09)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-6.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.8%

Win Probability (After): 37.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:14 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 2 at MIA 16) Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 7 yds to the MiaFl 9 for a 1ST down - NCST 3, MIA 14 0.22 36.8% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 9

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.04 - 4.82 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.18)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-5.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.8%

Win Probability (After): 38.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:47 ESPN team id 152 (1st & Goal at MIA 9) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie - NCST 3, MIA 14 -0.64 37.6% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.37 - 5.02 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-5.98)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-6.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.6%

Win Probability (After): 36.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:38 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & Goal at MIA 9) Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 7 - NCST 3, MIA 14 -0.61 37.3% -3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 7

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.75 - 4.36 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.64)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 3, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.3%

Win Probability (After): 33.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:59 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & Goal at MIA 7) Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 7 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) - NCST 10, MIA 14 3.24 32.2% 18.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.76 = 3.24

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.24)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.2%

Win Probability (After): 50.3%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:59 ESPN team id 2390 (Kickoff at MIA 35) Trenton Gill kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NCST 10, MIA 14 0.00 55.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.43 - 1.43 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.43)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.9%

Win Probability (After): 55.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:50 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 25) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 24 - NCST 10, MIA 14 -0.91 54.0% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 76

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - 1.36 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.36)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.0%

Win Probability (After): 52.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:21 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 11 at MIA 24) Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete - NCST 10, MIA 14 -0.88 50.9% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.48 - 0.40 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.40)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.9%

Win Probability (After): 48.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:21 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 11 at MIA 24) MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Navaughn Donaldson) to the MiaFl 19 - NCST 10, MIA 14 -0.26 49.1% -0.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 81

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.73 - -0.47 = -0.26

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.53)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.1%

Win Probability (After): 48.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:15 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 16 at MIA 19) Tyler Van Dyke run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 26 MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jakai Clark) to the MiaFl 13 - NCST 10, MIA 14 -1.18 48.3% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 87

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.92 - -0.66 = -1.18

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.27)

Score Difference (End): 4 (2.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.3%

Win Probability (After): 46.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:57 ESPN team id 2390 (4th & 22 at MIA 13) Lou Hedley punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 49 - NCST 10, MIA 14 -0.43 45.8% 1.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 51

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.36 - -1.92 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): 4 (2.08)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.64)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.8%

Win Probability (After): 47.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 7:45 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 49) Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 49 - NCST 10, MIA 14 -0.32 52.7% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 49

Started Drive at: NCST 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.04 - 2.36 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.64)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.7%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:06 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 8 at MIA 49) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr. - NCST 10, MIA 14 -1.04 52.1% -2.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: NCST 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.18 - 2.22 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.78)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.1%

Win Probability (After): 49.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:03 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 8 at MIA 49) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter Rooks - NCST 10, MIA 14 -1.71 49.5% -5.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: NCST 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.34 - 1.37 = -1.71

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.63)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.5%

Win Probability (After): 43.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:53 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 8 at MIA 49) Trenton Gill punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jacolby George at the MiaFl 6 - NCST 10, MIA 14 0.02 43.8% 5.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 94

Started Drive at: NCST 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.33 - -0.35 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.35)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.33)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.8%

Win Probability (After): 48.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 6:47 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 6) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 6 yds to the MiaFl 12 - NCST 10, MIA 14 0.06 50.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 88

Started Drive at: MIA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.41 - 0.35 = 0.06

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.35)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.5%

Win Probability (After): 50.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:10 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 4 at MIA 12) Jaylan Knighton run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST down - NCST 10, MIA 14 0.82 51.0% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 83

Started Drive at: MIA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 0.30 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.30)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.0%

Win Probability (After): 52.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:01 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 17) Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier Restrepo - NCST 10, MIA 14 -0.61 53.5% -2.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 83

Started Drive at: MIA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.27 - 0.88 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.88)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.5%

Win Probability (After): 50.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:50 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 10 at MIA 17) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 5 yds to the MiaFl 22 - NCST 10, MIA 14 -0.13 50.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 78

Started Drive at: MIA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 0.17 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.17)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.2%

Win Probability (After): 50.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:19 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 5 at MIA 22) MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Jakai Clark) to the MiaFl 17 - NCST 10, MIA 14 -0.73 55.9% -7.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 83

Started Drive at: MIA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.54 - 0.19 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.19)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.9%

Win Probability (After): 48.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:59 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 10 at MIA 17) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 12 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST down - NCST 10, MIA 14 1.80 55.0% 6.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 71

Started Drive at: MIA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - -0.27 = 1.80

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.73)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.0%

Win Probability (After): 61.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:35 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 29) Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 30 - NCST 10, MIA 14 -0.39 61.2% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 70

Started Drive at: MIA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.04 - 1.44 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.44)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.2%

Win Probability (After): 59.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:07 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 9 at MIA 30) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 6 yds to the MiaFl 36 - NCST 10, MIA 14 0.25 59.0% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 64

Started Drive at: MIA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - 0.90 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.90)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.0%

Win Probability (After): 60.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:29 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 3 at MIA 36) Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete - NCST 10, MIA 14 -1.39 58.9% -4.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: MIA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.44 - 0.95 = -1.39

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.95)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.9%

Win Probability (After): 54.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:18 ESPN team id 2390 (4th & 3 at MIA 36) Lou Hedley punt for 53 yds, downed at the NCSt 11 - NCST 10, MIA 14 0.31 54.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 89

Started Drive at: MIA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - -0.41 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.59)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.90)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.4%

Win Probability (After): 54.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 3:07 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 11) Ricky Person Jr. run for 23 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST down - NCST 10, MIA 14 1.16 45.9% 5.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 66

Started Drive at: NCST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.37 - 0.21 = 1.16

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.79)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.9%

Win Probability (After): 51.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:47 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 34) Ricky Person Jr. run for 8 yds to the NCSt 42 - NCST 10, MIA 14 0.41 50.5% 2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 58

Started Drive at: NCST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.76 - 1.35 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.65)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.5%

Win Probability (After): 53.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:08 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 2 at NCST 42) Devin Leary pass incomplete - NCST 10, MIA 14 -0.55 51.4% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: NCST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 1.75 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.25)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.4%

Win Probability (After): 49.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:02 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 2 at NCST 42) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Trent Pennix - NCST 10, MIA 14 -1.12 49.2% -5.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: NCST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 1.25 = -1.12

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.75)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.2%

Win Probability (After): 44.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:02 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 2 at NCST 42) Timeout NC STATE, clock 02:02 - NCST 10, MIA 14 0.00 44.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: NCST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 0.13 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.87)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.3%

Win Probability (After): 44.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:53 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 2 at NCST 42) Trenton Gill punt for 37 yds, downed at the MiaFl 21 - NCST 10, MIA 14 -1.21 43.4% -4.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 79

Started Drive at: NCST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.07 - 0.14 = -1.21

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.86)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.07)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.4%

Win Probability (After): 39.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:43 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 21) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 4 yds to the MiaFl 25 - NCST 10, MIA 14 -0.08 59.2% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 75

Started Drive at: MIA 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - 0.90 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.90)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.2%

Win Probability (After): 59.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:27 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 6 at MIA 25) Jaylan Knighton run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30 - NCST 10, MIA 14 0.00 58.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: MIA 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 0.66 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.66)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.5%

Win Probability (After): 58.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:15 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 1 at MIA 30) Cody Brown run for no gain to the MiaFl 30 - NCST 10, MIA 14 -1.05 59.3% -6.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: MIA 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.27 - 0.78 = -1.05

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.78)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.3%

Win Probability (After): 53.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:54 ESPN team id 2390 (4th & 1 at MIA 30) Timeout NC STATE, clock 00:54 - NCST 10, MIA 14 0.00 53.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: MIA 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.27 - -0.27 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.73)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.9%

Win Probability (After): 53.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:47 ESPN team id 2390 (4th & 1 at MIA 30) Lou Hedley punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 23 - NCST 10, MIA 14 -0.29 54.7% -1.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 77

Started Drive at: MIA 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.42 - -0.13 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.87)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.58)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.7%

Win Probability (After): 53.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:30 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 23) Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 4 yds to the NCSt 27 - NCST 10, MIA 14 0.13 46.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 73

Started Drive at: NCST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.40 - 0.27 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.73)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.4%

Win Probability (After): 45.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:20 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 6 at NCST 27) Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 46 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST down - NCST 10, MIA 14 2.58 44.9% 14.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 27

Started Drive at: NCST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.76 - 0.18 = 2.58

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.82)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.9%

Win Probability (After): 59.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:20 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at MIA 27) Timeout MIAMI FL, clock 00:20 - NCST 10, MIA 14 0.00 59.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 27

Started Drive at: NCST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.76 - 2.76 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.24)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 10, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.0%

Win Probability (After): 59.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:15 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at MIA 27) Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 27 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) - NCST 17, MIA 14 4.76 58.8% 11.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: NCST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.24 = 4.76

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.76)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.8%

Win Probability (After): 70.3%

Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:15 ESPN team id 2390 (Kickoff at MIA 35) Trenton Gill kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NCST 17, MIA 14 0.00 29.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.11 - 0.11 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.89)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.9%

Win Probability (After): 29.9%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q2 0:10 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 25) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 23 - NCST 17, MIA 14 -0.07 29.9% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 77

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.08 - 0.07 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.93)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.9%

Win Probability (After): 30.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2390 (Kickoff at MIA 35) Trenton Gill kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NCST 17, MIA 14 0.00 30.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 0.44 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.56)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.2%

Win Probability (After): 30.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:51 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 25) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 60 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST down - NCST 17, MIA 14 3.99 33.3% 12.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 15

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.61 - 0.62 = 3.99

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.38)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.3%

Win Probability (After): 46.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:28 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at NCST 15) Jaylan Knighton run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 16 - NCST 17, MIA 14 -0.82 47.0% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 16

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.97 - 4.79 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.79)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.0%

Win Probability (After): 46.1%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:00 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 11 at NCST 16) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 6 yds to the NCSt 10 - NCST 17, MIA 14 -0.15 44.5% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 10

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 3.94 = -0.15

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.94)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.5%

Win Probability (After): 43.0%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:30 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 5 at NCST 10) Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Mike Harley - NCST 17, MIA 14 -1.45 45.3% -7.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.44 - 3.89 = -1.45

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.89)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.3%

Win Probability (After): 38.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:30 ESPN team id 2390 (4th & 5 at NCST 10) NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Cory Durden) to the NCSt 5 for a 1ST down - NCST 17, MIA 14 3.20 39.5% 11.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 5

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.73 - 2.54 = 3.20

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.46)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.5%

Win Probability (After): 50.9%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 13:24 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & Goal at NCST 5) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 5 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) - NCST 17, MIA 21 1.28 50.8% 9.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.72 = 1.28

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.72)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.8%

Win Probability (After): 59.9%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:24 ESPN team id 152 (Kickoff at NCST 35) Andres Borregales kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NCST 17, MIA 21 0.00 47.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.59 - 0.59 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.41)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.8%

Win Probability (After): 47.8%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:18 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 25) Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jahfari Harvey) to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST down - NCST 17, MIA 21 1.33 47.8% 3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 58

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.92 - 0.61 = 1.33

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.41)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.8%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:58 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 42) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie - NCST 17, MIA 21 -0.62 51.5% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.31 - 1.93 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.07)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.5%

Win Probability (After): 50.1%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:54 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 10 at NCST 42) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter - NCST 17, MIA 21 -0.92 49.9% -4.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.40 - 1.32 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.68)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.9%

Win Probability (After): 45.4%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:50 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 10 at NCST 42) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas - NCST 17, MIA 21 -1.56 44.6% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.16 - 0.40 = -1.56

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.60)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-5.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.6%

Win Probability (After): 42.3%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:27 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 10 at NCST 42) Trenton Gill punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jacolby George at the MIAMI 14 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (7 Yards) to the MiaFl 7 - NCST 17, MIA 21 0.84 40.8% -2.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 93

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.33 - -1.23 = 0.84

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-5.16)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.33)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 17, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.8%

Win Probability (After): 38.7%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 12:19 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 7) Cody Brown run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 12 MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (-6 Yards) to the MiaFl 6 - NCST 17, MIA 21 -1.07 62.2% -5.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 94

Started Drive at: MIA 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.74 - 0.31 = -1.07

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.33)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.2%

Win Probability (After): 56.8%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:33 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 11 at MIA 6) Cody Brown run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 7 - NCST 17, MIA 21 -0.63 57.1% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 93

Started Drive at: MIA 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.40 - -0.77 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.23)

Score Difference (End): 4 (2.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.1%

Win Probability (After): 56.1%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:40 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 10 at MIA 7) Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Davin Vann for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 4 - NCST 17, MIA 21 -1.47 55.3% -3.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 96

Started Drive at: MIA 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.81 - -1.34 = -1.47

Score Difference (Before): 4 (2.66)

Score Difference (End): 4 (1.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.3%

Win Probability (After): 52.3%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:30 ESPN team id 2390 (4th & 13 at MIA 4) Lou Hedley punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 47 - NCST 17, MIA 21 0.42 52.3% -1.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 53

Started Drive at: MIA 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.28 - -2.70 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): 4 (1.30)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.72)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 17, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.3%

Win Probability (After): 51.3%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:55 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 47) Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 49 - NCST 17, MIA 21 -0.01 49.1% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 49

Started Drive at: NCST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.31 - 2.32 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.68)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.1%

Win Probability (After): 50.4%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:45 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 6 at MIA 49) Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 46 - NCST 17, MIA 21 -0.48 49.4% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 46

Started Drive at: NCST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.96 - 2.44 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.56)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.4%

Win Probability (After): 47.7%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:07 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 3 at MIA 46) Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 5 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST down - NCST 17, MIA 21 1.31 47.8% 3.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 41

Started Drive at: NCST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.33 - 2.02 = 1.31

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.98)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.8%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:29 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at MIA 41) Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 13 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST down - NCST 17, MIA 21 0.89 50.8% 3.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 28

Started Drive at: NCST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.13 - 3.24 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.76)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.8%

Win Probability (After): 54.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:53 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at MIA 28) Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 27 - NCST 17, MIA 21 -0.56 53.2% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 27

Started Drive at: NCST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.51 - 4.07 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.07)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.2%

Win Probability (After): 52.0%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:23 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 9 at MIA 27) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr. - NCST 17, MIA 21 -0.80 51.6% -3.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 27

Started Drive at: NCST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.71 - 3.50 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.50)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.6%

Win Probability (After): 47.9%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:14 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 9 at MIA 27) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter Rooks - NCST 17, MIA 21 -1.44 48.2% -4.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 27

Started Drive at: NCST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.28 - 2.72 = -1.44

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.28)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:14 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 9 at MIA 27) Timeout NC STATE, clock 07:14 - NCST 17, MIA 21 0.00 43.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 27

Started Drive at: NCST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.28 - 1.28 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.72)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 17, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.0%

Win Probability (After): 43.0%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:09 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 9 at MIA 27) Christopher Dunn 44 yd FG GOOD - NCST 20, MIA 21 1.65 40.0% 9.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 27

Started Drive at: NCST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.35 = 1.65

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.65)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.0%

Win Probability (After): 49.8%

Away Score: 17 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:09 ESPN team id 2390 (Kickoff at MIA 35) Trenton Gill kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NCST 20, MIA 21 0.00 58.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 1.20 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.20)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.8%

Win Probability (After): 58.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 7:09 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 25) MIAMI FL Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 20 - NCST 20, MIA 21 -0.69 58.8% -1.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 80

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.51 - 1.20 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.20)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.8%

Win Probability (After): 57.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 7:00 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 15 at MIA 20) Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 23 - NCST 20, MIA 21 -0.40 57.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 77

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.10 - 0.50 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.50)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.5%

Win Probability (After): 57.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 6:18 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 12 at MIA 23) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 15 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST down - NCST 20, MIA 21 2.06 58.4% 2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 62

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 0.10 = 2.06

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.10)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.4%

Win Probability (After): 60.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 6:08 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 38) Tyler Van Dyke run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 47 - NCST 20, MIA 21 0.78 62.4% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 53

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.96 - 2.18 = 0.78

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.18)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.4%

Win Probability (After): 63.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 5:49 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 1 at MIA 47) Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the MiaFl 47 - NCST 20, MIA 21 -0.81 63.9% -2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.14 - 2.95 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.95)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.9%

Win Probability (After): 61.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 5:18 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 1 at MIA 47) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 29 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST down - NCST 20, MIA 21 2.22 62.1% 4.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 24

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 2.12 = 2.22

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.12)

Score Difference (End): 1 (5.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.1%

Win Probability (After): 66.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 5:00 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at NCST 24) Van Dyke, Tyler pass incomplete to Smith, Key'Shawn, PENALTY NCSTATE roughing passer (Durden, Cory) 12 yards to the NCSTATE12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI. - NCST 20, MIA 21 0.72 66.4% 2.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 12

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.06 - 4.35 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): 1 (5.35)

Score Difference (End): 1 (6.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.4%

Win Probability (After): 68.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:48 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at NCST 12) Jaylan Knighton run for 8 yds to the NCSt 4 - NCST 20, MIA 21 0.74 68.5% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 4

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.84 - 5.09 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): 1 (6.09)

Score Difference (End): 1 (6.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.5%

Win Probability (After): 70.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:32 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 2 at NCST 4) Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the NCSt 3 - NCST 20, MIA 21 -0.32 71.0% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 3

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.53 - 5.85 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): 1 (6.85)

Score Difference (End): 1 (6.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.0%

Win Probability (After): 69.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:38 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 1 at NCST 3) Jaylan Knighton run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 5 - NCST 20, MIA 21 -2.55 69.7% -4.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 5

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.98 - 5.54 = -2.55

Score Difference (Before): 1 (6.54)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.7%

Win Probability (After): 65.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:22 ESPN team id 2390 (4th & 3 at NCST 5) Andres Borregales 22 yd FG GOOD - NCST 20, MIA 24 0.02 64.9% 6.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 5

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.98 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.98)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.9%

Win Probability (After): 71.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:16 ESPN team id 152 (Kickoff at NCST 35) Andres Borregales kickoff for 65 yds , Zonovan Knight return for 21 yds to the NCSt 21 - NCST 20, MIA 24 -0.19 36.1% -0.9%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 79

Started Drive at: NCST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.50 - 0.68 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.32)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.1%

Win Probability (After): 35.2%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:09 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 21) Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 10 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST down - NCST 20, MIA 24 0.90 34.8% 2.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 69

Started Drive at: NCST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.41 - 0.51 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.49)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.8%

Win Probability (After): 37.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:42 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 31) Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 3 yds to the NCSt 34 - NCST 20, MIA 24 -0.37 38.6% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 66

Started Drive at: NCST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.04 - 1.41 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.59)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.6%

Win Probability (After): 36.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:00 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 7 at NCST 34) Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the NCSt 34 - NCST 20, MIA 24 -0.88 37.8% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: NCST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.18 - 1.07 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.93)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.8%

Win Probability (After): 35.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:26 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 7 at NCST 34) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter - NCST 20, MIA 24 -1.59 35.7% -4.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: NCST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.34 - 0.25 = -1.59

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.75)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-5.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.7%

Win Probability (After): 31.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:55 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 7 at NCST 34) Trent Pennix run for 40 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST down - NCST 20, MIA 24 5.43 31.6% 19.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 26

Started Drive at: NCST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.15 - -1.27 = 5.43

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-5.27)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.6%

Win Probability (After): 51.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 0:31 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at MIA 26) Ricky Person Jr. run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 12 for a 1ST down - NCST 20, MIA 24 0.84 51.4% 3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 12

Started Drive at: NCST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.99 - 4.15 = 0.84

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.15)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.4%

Win Probability (After): 55.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:53 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at MIA 12) Leary, Devin pass complete to Toudle, Christopher for 12 yards to the MIAMI0, PENALTY NCSTATE illegal participation (McMahon, Dylan) 5 yards to the MIAMI17, NO PLAY. - NCST 20, MIA 24 -0.59 55.7% -3.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 17

Started Drive at: NCST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.37 - 4.95 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.95)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 20, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.7%

Win Probability (After): 52.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:45 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 15 at MIA 17) Devin Leary 17 Yd Run (Christopher Dunn Kick) - NCST 27, MIA 24 2.63 52.4% 13.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99

Started Drive at: NCST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.37 = 2.63

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.37)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.4%

Win Probability (After): 66.1%

Away Score: 20 (27) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:45 ESPN team id 2390 (Kickoff at MIA 35) Trenton Gill kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NCST 27, MIA 24 0.00 36.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 0.83 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.17)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.3%

Win Probability (After): 36.3%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:37 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 25) Jaylan Knighton run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 32 - NCST 27, MIA 24 0.52 36.3% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 68

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 0.83 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.17)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.3%

Win Probability (After): 37.1%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:00 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 3 at MIA 32) Jaylan Knighton run for 28 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST down - NCST 27, MIA 24 2.07 36.9% 10.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 40

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.40 - 1.33 = 2.07

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.67)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.9%

Win Probability (After): 47.1%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:15 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at NCST 40) Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Vi Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 41 - NCST 27, MIA 24 -1.09 48.2% -7.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 41

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.30 - 3.39 = -1.09

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.39)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.2%

Win Probability (After): 41.0%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:15 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 11 at NCST 41) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 13 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST down - NCST 27, MIA 24 1.79 42.2% 10.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 28

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.12 - 2.33 = 1.79

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.67)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.2%

Win Probability (After): 52.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:30 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at NCST 28) Cody Brown run for 4 yds to the NCSt 24 - NCST 27, MIA 24 -0.20 53.0% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 24

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.90 - 4.11 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.11)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.0%

Win Probability (After): 52.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:20 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 6 at NCST 24) Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the NCSt 22 - NCST 27, MIA 24 -0.09 52.9% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 22

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.71 - 3.80 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.80)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.9%

Win Probability (After): 51.6%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:11 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 4 at NCST 22) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 5 yds to the NCSt 17 for a 1ST down - NCST 27, MIA 24 1.14 52.4% 6.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 17

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.84 - 3.70 = 1.14

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.70)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.4%

Win Probability (After): 58.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:00 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at NCST 17) Jaylan Knighton run for 7 yds to the NCSt 10 - NCST 27, MIA 24 0.23 58.5% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 10

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.06 - 4.83 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.83)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.5%

Win Probability (After): 59.0%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 10:30 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 3 at NCST 10) Jaylan Knighton run for 6 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST down - NCST 27, MIA 24 0.89 59.0% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 4

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.95 - 5.06 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.06)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.0%

Win Probability (After): 59.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 10:00 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & Goal at NCST 4) TEAM run for no gain to the NCSt 4 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MiaFl - NCST 27, MIA 24 -0.51 60.6% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.43 - 5.94 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.94)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 24

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.6%

Win Probability (After): 59.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:34 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & Goal at NCST 4) Charleston Rambo 4 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick) - NCST 27, MIA 31 1.58 59.6% 9.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: MIA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.42 = 1.58

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.42)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.6%

Win Probability (After): 69.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 24 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:28 ESPN team id 152 (Kickoff at NCST 35) Andres Borregales kickoff for 62 yds , Zonovan Knight return for 22 yds to the NCSt 25 - NCST 27, MIA 31 -0.01 35.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.88 - 0.89 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.11)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.9%

Win Probability (After): 35.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:20 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 25) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter Rooks - NCST 27, MIA 31 -0.50 35.3% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.34 - 0.84 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.16)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.3%

Win Probability (After): 34.6%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:10 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 10 at NCST 25) Devin Leary pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 13 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST down - NCST 27, MIA 31 1.60 34.1% 4.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 62

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.84 - 0.24 = 1.60

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.76)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.1%

Win Probability (After): 38.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:55 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 38) Devin Leary pass complete to Anthony Smith for 44 yds to the MiaFl 18 for a 1ST down - NCST 27, MIA 31 2.85 38.2% 16.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 18

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.68 - 1.84 = 2.85

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.16)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.2%

Win Probability (After): 54.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:59 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at MIA 18) Thayer Thomas run for no gain to the MiaFl 18 - NCST 27, MIA 31 -0.51 54.7% -3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.06 - 4.56 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.56)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.7%

Win Probability (After): 51.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:00 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 10 at MIA 18) Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 16 - NCST 27, MIA 31 -0.58 50.8% -4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 16

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.40 - 3.98 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.02)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.8%

Win Probability (After): 46.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:30 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 8 at MIA 16) Devin Leary sacked by Bubba Bolden for a loss of 12 yards to the MiaFl 28 - NCST 27, MIA 31 -2.18 46.0% -12.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 28

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 3.44 = -2.18

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.56)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.0%

Win Probability (After): 34.0%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:45 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 20 at MIA 28) Dunn, Christopher field goal attempt from 45 MISSED - wide right, spot at MIAMI28, clock 05:45, PENALTY MIAMI roughing the kicker 5 yards to the MIAMI23, NO PLAY. - NCST 27, MIA 31 0.46 33.1% 2.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 23

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.66 - 1.19 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.81)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 27, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.1%

Win Probability (After): 35.3%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:39 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 15 at MIA 23) Christopher Dunn 40 yd FG GOOD - NCST 30, MIA 31 1.39 35.6% 8.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: NCST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.61 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.39)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.6%

Win Probability (After): 44.5%

Away Score: 27 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:33 ESPN team id 2390 (Kickoff at MIA 35) Trenton Gill kickoff for 64 yds , Brashard Smith return for 10 yds to the MiaFl 11 Brashard Smith fumbled, recovered by MiaFl - NCST 30, MIA 31 -0.81 64.5% -3.5%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 89

Started Drive at: MIA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 0.87 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.87)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.5%

Win Probability (After): 61.0%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:00 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 11) Tyler Van Dyke run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 8 - NCST 30, MIA 31 -0.97 61.6% -6.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 92

Started Drive at: MIA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.72 - 0.24 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.24)

Score Difference (End): 1 (0.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.6%

Win Probability (After): 55.6%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:30 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 13 at MIA 8) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 4 - NCST 30, MIA 31 -0.76 56.1% -14.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 96

Started Drive at: MIA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.41 - -0.66 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 1 (0.34)

Score Difference (End): 1 (-0.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.1%

Win Probability (After): 42.1%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:00 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 17 at MIA 4) Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 6 - NCST 30, MIA 31 -0.64 41.2% -7.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 94

Started Drive at: MIA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.12 - -1.48 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 1 (-0.48)

Score Difference (End): 1 (-1.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.2%

Win Probability (After): 34.1%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:46 ESPN team id 2390 (4th & 15 at MIA 6) Lou Hedley punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 44 - NCST 30, MIA 31 -0.16 34.2% 7.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 56

Started Drive at: MIA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.18 - -2.02 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): 1 (-1.02)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.18)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.2%

Win Probability (After): 41.9%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 3:30 ESPN team id 152 (1st & 10 at NCST 44) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Anthony Smith - NCST 30, MIA 31 -0.34 58.7% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56

Started Drive at: NCST 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.73 - 2.07 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.07)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.7%

Win Probability (After): 56.3%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:20 ESPN team id 152 (2nd & 10 at NCST 44) Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter - NCST 30, MIA 31 -0.55 56.6% -6.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56

Started Drive at: NCST 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 1.68 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.68)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.6%

Win Probability (After): 50.2%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:00 ESPN team id 152 (3rd & 10 at NCST 44) Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 2 yds to the NCSt 46 - NCST 30, MIA 31 -1.06 49.7% -14.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 54

Started Drive at: NCST 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 1.11 = -1.06

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.11)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.7%

Win Probability (After): 35.7%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:49 ESPN team id 152 (4th & 8 at NCST 46) Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 6 yds to the MiaFl 48 - NCST 30, MIA 31 -1.84 34.6% -12.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 52

Started Drive at: NCST 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.84 - 0.00 = -1.84

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-1.00)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.84)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.6%

Win Probability (After): 21.9%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:46 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at MIA 48) Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the MiaFl 48 - NCST 30, MIA 31 -0.42 79.0% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: MIA 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.38 - 1.80 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.80)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.0%

Win Probability (After): 77.3%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:45 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 10 at MIA 48) Timeout NC STATE, clock 02:45 - NCST 30, MIA 31 0.00 77.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: MIA 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.38 - 1.38 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.38)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.6%

Win Probability (After): 77.6%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:40 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 10 at MIA 48) Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Drake Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 42 - NCST 30, MIA 31 -0.99 78.0% -12.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 58

Started Drive at: MIA 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.39 - 1.38 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.38)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.0%

Win Probability (After): 65.6%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:38 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 16 at MIA 42) Timeout NC STATE, clock 02:38 - NCST 30, MIA 31 0.00 67.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: MIA 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.39 - 0.39 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.39)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.6%

Win Probability (After): 67.6%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 2:30 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 16 at MIA 42) Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 21 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST down - NCST 30, MIA 31 2.20 67.8% 17.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 37

Started Drive at: MIA 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.62 - 0.42 = 2.20

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.42)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.8%

Win Probability (After): 85.5%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 1:13 ESPN team id 2390 (1st & 10 at NCST 37) Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the NCSt 34 - NCST 30, MIA 31 0.23 92.2% -6.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 34

Started Drive at: MIA 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.54 - 2.31 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.31)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.2%

Win Probability (After): 85.5%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 1:07 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 7 at NCST 34) Timeout MIAMI FL, clock 01:07 - NCST 30, MIA 31 0.00 92.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: MIA 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.54 - 2.54 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.54)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.8%

Win Probability (After): 92.8%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 0:40 ESPN team id 2390 (2nd & 7 at NCST 34) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 36 - NCST 30, MIA 31 -0.61 95.8% -8.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 36

Started Drive at: MIA 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.71 - 2.32 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.32)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.8%

Win Probability (After): 87.7%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 0:01 ESPN team id 2390 (3rd & 9 at NCST 36) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 38 - NCST 30, MIA 31 -0.45 91.5% 8.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 38

Started Drive at: MIA 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.36 - 0.81 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.81)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NCST 30, MIA 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.5%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0