USC 16 @ Notre Dame 31

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 1.85 | Odds: ND -7.5, O/U 59.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 30 ESPN team id 87
Total Plays 8078
Total EPA 0.7211.31
  Offensive EPA 5.8813.31
  Special Teams EPA -3.19-3.68
  Penalty EPA -3.231.71
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 1.26-0.03
Production ESPN team id 30 ESPN team id 87
Scrimmage Plays 7071
  Yards 522398
  Yards/Play 7.465.61
  EPA 5.8813.31
  EPA/Play 0.080.19
Passes 40 (57%)31 (44%)
  Yards 299213
  Yards/Play 7.486.87
  EPA -1.586.86
  EPA/Play -0.040.22
Rushes 30 (43%)40 (56%)
  Yards 163176
  Yards/Play 5.434.40
  EPA 7.466.45
  EPA/Play 0.250.16
Rushing ESPN team id 30 ESPN team id 87
Scrimmage Plays 7071
Rushes 30 (43%)40 (56%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 2 (7%)3 (8%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 2 (100%)3 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 1 (3%)4 (10%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 4 (13%)21 (52%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 20 (67%)14 (35%)
OL Line Yards 85.967.5
  Per Carry 2.861.69
Highlight Yards 31.552.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 1.583.75
Explosiveness ESPN team id 30 ESPN team id 87
Total Plays 8078
Scrimmage Plays 7071
Explosive Plays 4 (6%)6 (8%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 3 (8%)3 (10%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 1 (3%)3 (8%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -3.98-0.46
  EPA/Play -0.06-0.01
  When Passing -9.47-0.86
    EPA/Play -0.24-0.03
  When Rushing 5.480.40
    EPA/Play 0.190.01
Situational ESPN team id 30 ESPN team id 87
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 38 (54%)36 (51%)
  When Passing 21 (53%)17 (55%)
  When Rushing 17 (57%)19 (48%)
  On Standard Downs 32 (60%)27 (50%)
  On Passing Downs 6 (35%)9 (53%)
  On Early Downs 31 (56%)26 (45%)
  On Late Downs 7 (47%)10 (77%)
  During "Middle 8" 10 (53%)0 (0%)
Early Downs 5558
  First Downs Created 17 (31%)14 (24%)
  EPA 15.552.69
  EPA/Play 0.280.05
  Passes 31 (56%)23 (40%)
  Rushes 24 (44%)35 (60%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 18 (58%)12 (52%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 13 (54%)14 (40%)
"Middle 8" Plays 192
  EPA 2.48-1.21
  EPA/play 0.13-0.61
  Passes 8 (42%)1 (50%)
  Rushes 11 (58%)1 (50%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 4 (50%)0 (0%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 6 (55%)0 (0%)
Drives ESPN team id 30 ESPN team id 87
Total 99
Avg Starting Field Position Own 22Own 29
Plays/Drive 8.939.66
Yards/Drive 53.4459.31
Available Yards % 68%84%
Defensive ESPN team id 30 ESPN team id 87
Scrimmage Plays 7170
Stop Rate 4%20%
Havoc Plays Created 6 (8%)6 (9%)
  Passing 3 (10%)4 (10%)
  Rushing 3 (8%)2 (7%)
TFLs Generated 55
  Passing 23
  Rushing 32
Sacks Generated 1 (3%)3 (8%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 11
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 30 ESPN team id 87
Turnovers 21
  Fumbles 20
  Fumbles Lost 10
  Fumbles Recovered 10
  Interceptions 11
Turnover Margin -11
Expected Turnovers 1.21.2
Expected Turnover Margin 0.00.0
Turnover Luck (pts) -5.05.0
Special Teams ESPN team id 30 ESPN team id 87
Total Plays 10 7
Total EPA -3.19 -3.68
  Field Goal EPA -2.5 -3.71
  Punting EPA -0.02 1.03
  Kickoff Return EPA -0.68 -1
Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Kedon Slovis 27/37, 299 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 3 Scks, 46.4 xQBR 7.48 -0.04 -1.58 52% -8.0%
Rush attempts
Keaontay Ingram 24 carries, 138 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.75 0.39 9.36 62% 4.0%
Darwin Barlow 4 carries, 15 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.75 0.23 0.92 50% 2.0%
Kedon Slovis 2 carries, 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 -1.41 -2.82 0% -4.0%
Pass targets
Drake London 15 catches (18 targets), 171 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.40 0.66 11.88 61% 12.0%
Erik Krommenhoek 3 catches (3 targets), 28 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.33 0.88 2.63 67% -1.0%
Tahj Washington 2 catches (3 targets), 32 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.00 0.29 0.87 67% 0.0%
Joseph Manjack IV 1 catch (1 target), 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 0.83 0.83 100% 0.0%
Kyle Ford 1 catch (1 target), 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.00 0.78 0.78 100% 0.0%
Malcolm Epps 2 catches (4 targets), 38 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 19.00 0.15 0.62 50% -1.0%
Gary Bryant Jr. 2 catches (3 targets), 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.06 0.19 67% 2.0%
Keaontay Ingram 1 catch (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.61 -0.61 0% 0.0%
Darwin Barlow 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.66 -0.66 0% 0.0%

Notre Dame [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Jack Coan 20/28, 189 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 Sck, 88.3 xQBR 6.52 0.19 5.46 52% 8.0%
Tyler Buchner 2/2, 24 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 87.4 xQBR 12.00 0.70 1.41 100% 3.0%
Rush attempts
Kyren Williams 25 carries, 138 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.52 0.26 6.38 52% 10.0%
Tyler Buchner 3 carries, 11 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.67 1.08 3.23 100% 0.0%
Jack Coan 2 carries, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.50 0.92 1.84 100% 2.0%
Braden Lenzy 1 carry, 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.00 0.81 0.81 100% 4.0%
Avery Davis 1 carry, 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.67 -0.67 0% -2.0%
C'Bo Flemister 3 carries, 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.33 -0.41 -1.22 0% -1.0%
Logan Diggs 3 carries, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.62 -1.85 0% -1.0%
TEAM 2 carries, -4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -2.00 -1.04 -2.07 0% 0.0%
Pass targets
Michael Mayer 5 catches (6 targets), 54 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.80 0.80 4.79 67% 13.0%
Kyren Williams 6 catches (6 targets), 42 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.62 3.72 50% -1.0%
Lorenzo Styles Jr. 3 catches (4 targets), 57 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 19.00 0.76 3.03 75% 3.0%
Kevin Austin Jr. 4 catches (5 targets), 39 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.75 0.42 2.12 80% -1.0%
Deion Colzie 1 catch (2 targets), 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.00 0.90 1.80 50% 0.0%
Avery Davis 2 catches (2 targets), 10 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.79 1.58 100% 5.0%
Braden Lenzy 1 catch (1 target), -2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -2.00 -0.91 -0.91 0% -1.0%
George Takacs 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.08 -1.08 0% -1.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 14:44 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 8 at ND 12) Kedon Slovis pass intercepted Bo Bauer return for 79 yds to the USC 4 - USC 0, ND 7 -9.69 22.2% -11.2%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 4

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -6.20 - 3.50 = -9.69

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.50)

Score Difference (End): 7 (13.20)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 142 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.2%

Win Probability (After): 11.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 10:25 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 4 at USC 17) Jonathan Doerer 36 yd FG MISSED - USC 0, ND 0 -3.59 73.8% -8.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 80

Started Drive at: ND 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.87 - 2.72 = -3.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.87)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.8%

Win Probability (After): 65.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:45 ESPN team id 30 (4th & 18 at USC 34) Kedon Slovis sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 17 yards to the USC 14 Kedon Slovis fumbled, recovered by NDame TaRiq Bracy , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds to the USC 14 - USC 16, ND 31 -3.52 0.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 14

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.58 - -1.06 = -3.52

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-16.06)

Score Difference (End): 15 (19.58)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 16, ND 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 11:40 ESPN team id 30 (4th & 10 at ND 25) Parker Lewis 42 yd FG MISSED - USC 3, ND 17 -3.22 6.9% -2.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 75

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.51 - 0.71 = -3.22

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.29)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.51)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.9%

Win Probability (After): 4.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 11:25 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at USC 42) Jack Coan pass intercepted Chris Steele return for no gain to the USC 14 - USC 10, ND 24 -3.07 98.8% -2.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 86

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 3.94 = -3.07

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.94)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.86)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.8%

Win Probability (After): 96.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:15 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 14) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 44 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST down - USC 10, ND 24 3.03 3.3% 2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 42

Started Drive at: USC 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.33 - -0.69 = 3.03

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.69)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.3%

Win Probability (After): 5.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:30 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 13 at ND 22) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 17 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST down - USC 10, ND 24 2.79 96.6% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 61

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.18 - 0.40 = 2.79

Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.40)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.6%

Win Probability (After): 97.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:48 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 9 at USC 22) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 16 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 10 2.50 85.7% 4.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 6

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.59 - 3.08 = 2.50

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.08)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.7%

Win Probability (After): 90.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 12:52 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 45) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 30 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 17 2.45 7.8% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 25

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.58 - 1.13 = 2.45

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.87)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.8%

Win Probability (After): 9.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:41 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 8 at ND 22) Jack Coan pass complete to Deion Colzie for 13 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 17 2.43 94.8% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 65

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.06 - 0.63 = 2.43

Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.63)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.8%

Win Probability (After): 95.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 14:44 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 8 at ND 12) Kedon Slovis pass intercepted Bo Bauer return for 79 yds to the USC 4 - USC 0, ND 7 -9.69 22.2% -11.2%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 4

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -6.20 - 3.50 = -9.69

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.50)

Score Difference (End): 7 (13.20)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 142 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.2%

Win Probability (After): 11.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 10:25 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 4 at USC 17) Jonathan Doerer 36 yd FG MISSED - USC 0, ND 0 -3.59 73.8% -8.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 80

Started Drive at: ND 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.87 - 2.72 = -3.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.87)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.8%

Win Probability (After): 65.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 7:29 ESPN team id 30 (4th & 11 at ND 15) Parker Lewis 33 yd FG GOOD - USC 3, ND 10 0.72 13.1% 8.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.28 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.72)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.1%

Win Probability (After): 21.2%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:54 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 30) Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 36 - USC 0, ND 0 0.26 66.4% 5.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 64

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.86 - 1.60 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.60)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.4%

Win Probability (After): 72.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:09 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & Goal at USC 4) Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - USC 0, ND 7 1.41 78.0% 5.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.59 = 1.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.59)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.0%

Win Probability (After): 83.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:48 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 9 at USC 22) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 16 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 10 2.50 85.7% 4.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 6

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.59 - 3.08 = 2.50

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.08)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.7%

Win Probability (After): 90.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:03 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 4 at ND 31) Kedon Slovis run for 6 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 17 -1.68 11.5% -4.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 25

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.94 - 1.68 = -1.68

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.32)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.5%

Win Probability (After): 7.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q1 2:02 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at ND 43) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 29 yds to the NDame 14 for a 1ST down - USC 0, ND 7 2.22 24.2% 4.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 14

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.78 - 2.56 = 2.22

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.44)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.2%

Win Probability (After): 28.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:00 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 45) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 8 yds to the USC 47 - USC 0, ND 0 0.70 73.9% -4.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 47

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.20 - 2.50 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.50)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.9%

Win Probability (After): 69.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:24 ESPN team id 87 (4th & Goal at USC 3) Jonathan Doerer 21 yd FG GOOD - USC 0, ND 10 -0.12 87.3% 4.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 3

Started Drive at: USC 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.12 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.12)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.3%

Win Probability (After): 91.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 4:09 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & Goal at USC 4) Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - USC 0, ND 7 1.41 78.0% 5.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.59 = 1.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.59)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.0%

Win Probability (After): 83.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:24 ESPN team id 87 (4th & Goal at USC 3) Jonathan Doerer 21 yd FG GOOD - USC 0, ND 10 -0.12 87.3% 4.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 3

Started Drive at: USC 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.12 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.12)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.3%

Win Probability (After): 91.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 7:29 ESPN team id 30 (4th & 11 at ND 15) Parker Lewis 33 yd FG GOOD - USC 3, ND 10 0.72 13.1% 8.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.28 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.72)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.1%

Win Probability (After): 21.2%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 4:13 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & Goal at USC 5) Kyren Williams run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - USC 3, ND 17 1.81 89.7% 1.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.19 = 1.81

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.19)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.7%

Win Probability (After): 91.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 2:51 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & Goal at USC 1) Kyren Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - USC 3, ND 24 0.58 98.3% 1.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.42 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): 14 (20.42)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 24

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:52 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 1 at ND 4) Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK) - USC 10, ND 24 1.98 0.9% 3.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.02 = 1.98

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-15.98)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.9%

Win Probability (After): 4.5%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:51 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & Goal at ND 3) Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis PAT MISSED) - USC 16, ND 24 0.59 7.1% 0.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 5.41 = 0.59

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-8.59)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.1%

Win Probability (After): 8.0%

Away Score: 10 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:52 ESPN team id 87 (1st & Goal at USC 3) Tyler Buchner run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - USC 16, ND 31 1.06 99.0% 0.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.94 = 1.06

Score Difference (Before): 8 (13.94)

Score Difference (End): 15 (15.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 31

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.0%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 87 (Kickoff at ND 35) Parker Lewis kickoff for 61 yds , Lorenzo Styles Jr. return for 14 yds to the NDame 49 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (9 Yards) to the NDame 9 - USC 0, ND 0 -1.00 71.0% -1.6%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 91

Started Drive at: ND 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.14 - 0.86 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.00)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.0%

Win Probability (After): 69.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:50 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 9) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 4 yds to the NDame 13 - USC 0, ND 0 -0.42 70.4% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 87

Started Drive at: ND 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - 0.07 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.4%

Win Probability (After): 69.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:30 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 6 at ND 13) Jack Coan pass incomplete - USC 0, ND 0 -0.98 69.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 87

Started Drive at: ND 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.12 - -0.14 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.4%

Win Probability (After): 68.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:22 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 6 at ND 13) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 10 yds to the NDame 23 for a 1ST down - USC 0, ND 0 2.04 68.1% 3.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 77

Started Drive at: ND 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - -1.13 = 2.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.1%

Win Probability (After): 71.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:05 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 23) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 11 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST down - USC 0, ND 0 0.98 70.5% 3.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 66

Started Drive at: ND 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.92 - 0.94 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.94)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.5%

Win Probability (After): 73.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:32 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 34) Braden Lenzy run for 14 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST down - USC 0, ND 0 0.81 70.8% 3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 52

Started Drive at: ND 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.72 - 1.91 = 0.81

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.91)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.8%

Win Probability (After): 74.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:52 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 48) Kyren Williams run for 9 yds to the USC 43 - USC 0, ND 0 0.93 72.4% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 43

Started Drive at: ND 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.64 - 2.70 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.70)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.4%

Win Probability (After): 73.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:28 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 1 at USC 43) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. - USC 0, ND 0 -0.72 74.1% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 43

Started Drive at: ND 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.90 - 3.62 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.1%

Win Probability (After): 72.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:23 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 1 at USC 43) Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST down - USC 0, ND 0 0.62 73.1% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 41

Started Drive at: ND 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.50 - 2.88 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.88)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.1%

Win Probability (After): 74.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:54 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at USC 41) Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 18 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST down - USC 0, ND 0 0.99 74.0% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 23

Started Drive at: ND 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.51 - 3.52 = 0.99

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.52)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.0%

Win Probability (After): 75.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:33 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at USC 23) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 4 yds to the USC 19 - USC 0, ND 0 -0.07 75.8% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 19

Started Drive at: ND 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.46 - 4.53 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.8%

Win Probability (After): 76.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:03 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 6 at USC 19) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 2 yds to the USC 17 - USC 0, ND 0 -0.20 76.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 17

Started Drive at: ND 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.23 - 4.43 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.43)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.4%

Win Probability (After): 75.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:30 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 4 at USC 17) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr. - USC 0, ND 0 -1.52 75.0% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: ND 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.70 - 4.22 = -1.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.22)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.0%

Win Probability (After): 74.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:25 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 4 at USC 17) Jonathan Doerer 36 yd FG MISSED - USC 0, ND 0 -3.59 73.8% -8.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 80

Started Drive at: ND 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.87 - 2.72 = -3.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.87)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.8%

Win Probability (After): 65.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:20 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 20) Kedon Slovis sacked by Jayson Ademilola for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 12 - USC 0, ND 0 -1.75 35.0% -4.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 88

Started Drive at: USC 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.83 - 0.91 = -1.75

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.91)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.0%

Win Probability (After): 31.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:40 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 18 at USC 12) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 11 yds to the USC 23 - USC 0, ND 0 0.21 31.1% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 77

Started Drive at: USC 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.62 - -0.83 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.83)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.1%

Win Probability (After): 31.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:08 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 7 at USC 23) Kedon Slovis pass incomplete - USC 0, ND 0 -1.28 31.8% -2.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77

Started Drive at: USC 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.06 - -0.78 = -1.28

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:02 ESPN team id 30 (4th & 7 at USC 23) Ben Griffiths punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 30 - USC 0, ND 0 0.47 30.4% -0.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 70

Started Drive at: USC 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.66 - -2.14 = 0.47

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.66)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.4%

Win Probability (After): 29.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:54 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 30) Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 36 - USC 0, ND 0 0.26 66.4% 5.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 64

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.86 - 1.60 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.60)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.4%

Win Probability (After): 72.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:34 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 4 at ND 36) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 9 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST down - USC 0, ND 0 0.67 67.1% 2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 55

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 1.81 = 0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.81)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.1%

Win Probability (After): 69.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:10 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 45) Timeout USC, clock 08:10 - USC 0, ND 0 0.00 68.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 2.48 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.48)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.1%

Win Probability (After): 68.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 8:00 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 45) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 8 yds to the USC 47 - USC 0, ND 0 0.70 73.9% -4.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 47

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.20 - 2.50 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.50)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.9%

Win Probability (After): 69.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 7:31 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 2 at USC 47) Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the USC 46 - USC 0, ND 0 -0.47 73.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 46

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.67 - 3.14 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.6%

Win Probability (After): 73.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 7:15 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 1 at USC 46) Jack Coan run for 2 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST down - USC 0, ND 0 0.52 72.8% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 44

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.22 - 2.70 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.70)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.8%

Win Probability (After): 74.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 6:33 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at USC 44) Tyler Buchner pass complete to Kyren Williams for 9 yds to the USC 35 - USC 0, ND 0 0.84 75.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 35

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.12 - 3.28 = 0.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.0%

Win Probability (After): 74.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 6:07 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 1 at USC 35) Tyler Buchner pass complete to Michael Mayer for 15 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST down - USC 0, ND 0 0.56 74.0% 3.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 20

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.70 - 4.14 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.0%

Win Probability (After): 77.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:34 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at USC 20) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 9 yds to the USC 11 - USC 0, ND 0 0.78 75.9% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 11

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.48 - 4.71 = 0.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.71)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.9%

Win Probability (After): 77.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:05 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 1 at USC 11) Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST down - USC 0, ND 0 0.25 77.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 6

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.75 - 5.50 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.50)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.3%

Win Probability (After): 77.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 4:28 ESPN team id 87 (1st & Goal at USC 6) Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the USC 4 - USC 0, ND 0 -0.19 78.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 4

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.58 - 5.77 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.3%

Win Probability (After): 77.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 4:09 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & Goal at USC 4) Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - USC 0, ND 7 1.41 78.0% 5.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.59 = 1.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.59)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.0%

Win Probability (After): 83.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 4:09 ESPN team id 30 (Kickoff at USC 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - USC 0, ND 7 0.00 16.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - -0.05 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.05)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.7%

Win Probability (After): 16.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:02 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 25) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 8 yds to the USC 33 - USC 0, ND 7 0.84 17.7% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - -0.05 = 0.84

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.05)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.7%

Win Probability (After): 16.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:22 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 2 at USC 33) Keaontay Ingram run for 6 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST down - USC 0, ND 7 0.32 20.5% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 61

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 0.77 = 0.32

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.23)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.5%

Win Probability (After): 18.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:05 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 39) Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the USC 43 - USC 0, ND 7 0.00 21.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 57

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 1.13 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.87)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.8%

Win Probability (After): 21.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:42 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 6 at USC 43) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 14 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST down - USC 0, ND 7 1.35 21.6% 2.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 43

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - 1.14 = 1.35

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.86)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.6%

Win Probability (After): 24.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:02 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at ND 43) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 29 yds to the NDame 14 for a 1ST down - USC 0, ND 7 2.22 24.2% 4.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 14

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.78 - 2.56 = 2.22

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.44)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.2%

Win Probability (After): 28.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:15 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at ND 14) Kedon Slovis sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 9 yards to the NDame 23 Kedon Slovis fumbled, recovered by USC Kedon Slovis , return for 0 yards - USC 0, ND 7 -1.86 27.7% -3.1%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 23

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.94 - 4.81 = -1.86

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.19)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.7%

Win Probability (After): 24.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:33 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 19 at ND 23) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 11 yds to the NDame 12 - USC 0, ND 7 0.61 23.9% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 12

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.55 - 2.94 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.06)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.9%

Win Probability (After): 25.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:44 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 8 at ND 12) Kedon Slovis pass intercepted Bo Bauer return for 79 yds to the USC 4 - USC 0, ND 7 -9.69 22.2% -11.2%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 4

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -6.20 - 3.50 = -9.69

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.50)

Score Difference (End): 7 (13.20)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 142 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.2%

Win Probability (After): 11.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:40 ESPN team id 87 (1st & Goal at USC 4) Logan Diggs run for no gain to the USC 4 - USC 0, ND 7 -0.46 90.2% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: USC 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.73 - 6.19 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 7 (13.19)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.2%

Win Probability (After): 89.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:09 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & Goal at USC 4) Avery Davis run for 1 yd to the USC 3 - USC 0, ND 7 -0.67 90.6% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 3

Started Drive at: USC 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.03 - 5.70 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.70)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.6%

Win Probability (After): 88.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:27 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & Goal at USC 3) Jack Coan pass incomplete - USC 0, ND 7 -1.94 89.1% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 3

Started Drive at: USC 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 5.05 = -1.94

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.05)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.1%

Win Probability (After): 87.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:24 ESPN team id 87 (4th & Goal at USC 3) Jonathan Doerer 21 yd FG GOOD - USC 0, ND 10 -0.12 87.3% 4.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 3

Started Drive at: USC 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.12 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.12)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.3%

Win Probability (After): 91.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:24 ESPN team id 30 (Kickoff at USC 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 64 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. return for 24 yds to the USC 25 - USC 0, ND 10 0.00 14.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.18 - 0.18 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.82)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.4%

Win Probability (After): 14.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:10 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 25) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 16 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST down - USC 0, ND 10 1.37 13.9% 1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 59

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.55 - 0.18 = 1.37

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.82)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.9%

Win Probability (After): 15.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:46 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 41) Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the USC 44 - USC 0, ND 10 -0.26 15.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 56

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 1.52 = -0.26

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.48)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.4%

Win Probability (After): 15.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:40 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 7 at USC 44) Darwin Barlow run for 5 yds to the USC 49 - USC 0, ND 10 -0.06 13.6% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 51

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.33 - 1.38 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.62)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.6%

Win Probability (After): 15.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:26 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 2 at USC 49) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 9 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST down - USC 0, ND 10 1.16 14.6% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 42

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - 1.58 = 1.16

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.42)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.6%

Win Probability (After): 15.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:52 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at ND 42) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 5 yds to the NDame 37 - USC 0, ND 10 -0.02 16.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 37

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.90 - 2.92 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.08)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.0%

Win Probability (After): 16.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:29 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 5 at ND 37) Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds to the NDame 34 - USC 0, ND 10 -0.13 16.2% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 34

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.90 - 3.03 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.97)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.2%

Win Probability (After): 15.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:05 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 2 at ND 34) USC Penalty, False Start (Jalen McKenzie) to the NDame 39 - USC 0, ND 10 -1.15 16.3% -1.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 39

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - 2.96 = -1.15

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.04)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.3%

Win Probability (After): 14.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:48 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 7 at ND 39) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 11 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST down - USC 0, ND 10 2.04 14.9% 2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 28

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.87 - 1.83 = 2.04

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.17)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.9%

Win Probability (After): 17.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:10 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at ND 28) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 6 yds to the NDame 22 - USC 0, ND 10 0.31 14.6% 2.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 22

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.15 - 3.84 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.16)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.6%

Win Probability (After): 17.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:52 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 4 at ND 22) Keaontay Ingram run for 8 yds to the NDame 14 for a 1ST down - USC 0, ND 10 0.54 15.9% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 14

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.64 - 4.10 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.90)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.9%

Win Probability (After): 15.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:36 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at ND 14) USC Penalty, False Start (Jalen McKenzie) to the NDame 19 - USC 0, ND 10 -0.80 16.3% -0.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 19

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.82 - 4.63 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.37)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.3%

Win Probability (After): 15.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:11 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 15 at ND 19) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 4 yds to the NDame 15 - USC 0, ND 10 -0.03 15.8% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 15

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.78 - 3.81 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.19)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.8%

Win Probability (After): 14.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:37 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 11 at ND 15) Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake London - USC 0, ND 10 -0.65 15.6% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.04 - 3.70 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.30)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.6%

Win Probability (After): 14.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:32 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 11 at ND 15) Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Malcolm Epps - USC 0, ND 10 -0.74 14.6% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 3.01 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.99)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, ND 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.6%

Win Probability (After): 13.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:29 ESPN team id 30 (4th & 11 at ND 15) Parker Lewis 33 yd FG GOOD - USC 3, ND 10 0.72 13.1% 8.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.28 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.72)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.1%

Win Probability (After): 21.2%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 7:29 ESPN team id 87 (Kickoff at ND 35) Parker Lewis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - USC 3, ND 10 0.00 84.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.57 - 1.57 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.57)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.3%

Win Probability (After): 84.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:18 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 25) Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 29 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 10 1.64 84.3% 2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 46

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.29 - 1.65 = 1.64

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.65)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.3%

Win Probability (After): 86.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:52 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at USC 46) Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the USC 45 - USC 3, ND 10 -0.45 86.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 45

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.88 - 3.34 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.7%

Win Probability (After): 86.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:25 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 9 at USC 45) Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 10 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 10 1.11 86.6% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 35

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.90 - 2.78 = 1.11

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.78)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.6%

Win Probability (After): 87.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:56 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at USC 35) Kyren Williams run for 12 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 10 0.76 88.0% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 23

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - 3.77 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.77)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.0%

Win Probability (After): 89.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:35 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at USC 23) Timeout USC, clock 05:35 - USC 3, ND 10 0.00 89.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - 4.52 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.52)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.3%

Win Probability (After): 89.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 5:29 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at USC 23) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 1 yd to the USC 22 - USC 3, ND 10 -0.41 89.6% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 22

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.94 - 4.34 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.6%

Win Probability (After): 88.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 4:56 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 9 at USC 22) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael Mayer - USC 3, ND 10 -0.57 88.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.26 - 3.83 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.83)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.0%

Win Probability (After): 87.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 4:56 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 9 at USC 22) Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 04:56 - USC 3, ND 10 0.00 86.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.26 - 3.26 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.26)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.9%

Win Probability (After): 86.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 4:48 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 9 at USC 22) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 16 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 10 2.50 85.7% 4.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 6

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.59 - 3.08 = 2.50

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.08)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.7%

Win Probability (After): 90.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 4:20 ESPN team id 87 (1st & Goal at USC 6) Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the USC 5 - USC 3, ND 10 -0.39 90.2% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 5

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.21 - 5.60 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.60)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.2%

Win Probability (After): 89.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 4:13 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & Goal at USC 5) Kyren Williams run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - USC 3, ND 17 1.81 89.7% 1.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.19 = 1.81

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.19)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.7%

Win Probability (After): 91.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 4:13 ESPN team id 30 (Kickoff at USC 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 61 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. return for 19 yds to the USC 23 - USC 3, ND 17 -0.04 7.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 77

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.28 - 0.31 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.69)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.1%

Win Probability (After): 7.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:59 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 23) Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the USC 28 - USC 3, ND 17 -0.16 7.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 72

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - 0.37 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.63)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.0%

Win Probability (After): 7.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:25 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 5 at USC 28) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 6 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 17 0.81 7.0% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 66

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.11 - 0.29 = 0.81

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.71)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.0%

Win Probability (After): 7.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:42 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 34) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 8 yds to the USC 42 - USC 3, ND 17 0.34 7.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 58

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.55 - 1.21 = 0.34

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.79)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.3%

Win Probability (After): 7.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:21 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 2 at USC 42) Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 17 0.01 8.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 55

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.73 - 1.72 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.28)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.3%

Win Probability (After): 7.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:47 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 45) Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake London - USC 3, ND 17 -0.18 8.8% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.41 - 1.59 = -0.18

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.41)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.8%

Win Probability (After): 8.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:41 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 10 at USC 45) Keaontay Ingram run for 6 yds to the NDame 49 - USC 3, ND 17 0.01 8.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 49

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.22 - 1.22 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.78)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.4%

Win Probability (After): 8.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:05 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 4 at ND 49) Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the NDame 47 - USC 3, ND 17 -0.68 8.5% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 47

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - 1.12 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.88)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.5%

Win Probability (After): 7.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:39 ESPN team id 30 (4th & 2 at ND 47) Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 00:39 - USC 3, ND 17 0.00 7.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - 0.45 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.55)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.6%

Win Probability (After): 7.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:39 ESPN team id 30 (4th & 2 at ND 47) Timeout USC, clock 00:39 - USC 3, ND 17 0.00 7.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 0.55 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.45)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.7%

Win Probability (After): 7.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:32 ESPN team id 30 (4th & 2 at ND 47) Keaontay Ingram run for 10 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 17 1.50 8.5% 2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 37

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 0.61 = 1.50

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.39)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.5%

Win Probability (After): 10.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:21 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at ND 37) Keaontay Ingram run for 6 yds to the NDame 31 - USC 3, ND 17 1.09 10.5% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 31

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 1.73 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.27)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.5%

Win Probability (After): 11.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:03 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 4 at ND 31) Kedon Slovis run for 6 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 17 -1.68 11.5% -4.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 25

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.94 - 1.68 = -1.68

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.32)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.5%

Win Probability (After): 7.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 30 (Kickoff at USC 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 64 yds , Gary Bryant Jr. return for 18 yds to the USC 19 - USC 3, ND 17 -0.32 7.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 81

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.94 - -0.62 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.62)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.1%

Win Probability (After): 6.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:49 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 19) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 8 yds to the USC 27 - USC 3, ND 17 0.46 7.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 73

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.32 - -0.77 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.77)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.3%

Win Probability (After): 7.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:32 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 2 at USC 27) Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 17 0.32 7.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 70

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.04 - -0.28 = 0.32

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.28)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.6%

Win Probability (After): 7.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:09 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 30) Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the USC 34 - USC 3, ND 17 -0.05 7.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 66

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 0.02 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.98)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.5%

Win Probability (After): 7.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:48 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 6 at USC 34) Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds to the USC 38 - USC 3, ND 17 -0.02 7.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 62

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - -0.02 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.02)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.4%

Win Probability (After): 7.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:29 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 2 at USC 38) Keaontay Ingram run for 7 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 17 1.27 7.6% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 55

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.18 - -0.09 = 1.27

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.09)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.6%

Win Probability (After): 8.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:52 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 45) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Malcolm Epps for 30 yds to the NDame 25 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 17 2.45 7.8% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 25

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.58 - 1.13 = 2.45

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.87)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.8%

Win Probability (After): 9.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:26 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at ND 25) Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Darwin Barlow - USC 3, ND 17 -0.66 9.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.96 - 3.62 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.38)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.1%

Win Probability (After): 8.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:18 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 10 at ND 25) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for no gain to the NDame 25 - USC 3, ND 17 -0.90 8.7% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 2.98 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.02)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.7%

Win Probability (After): 7.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:44 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 10 at ND 25) Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Malcolm Epps - USC 3, ND 17 -1.43 7.7% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - 2.08 = -1.43

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.92)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.7%

Win Probability (After): 6.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:40 ESPN team id 30 (4th & 10 at ND 25) Parker Lewis 42 yd FG MISSED - USC 3, ND 17 -3.22 6.9% -2.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 75

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.51 - 0.71 = -3.22

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.29)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.51)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.9%

Win Probability (After): 4.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 11:35 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 25) Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 23 - USC 3, ND 17 -0.91 95.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 77

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.61 - 2.52 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.52)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.1%

Win Probability (After): 94.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:00 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 12 at ND 23) C'Bo Flemister run for 6 yds to the NDame 29 - USC 3, ND 17 -0.30 94.9% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 71

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - 1.66 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.66)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.9%

Win Probability (After): 94.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:28 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 6 at ND 29) Jack Coan sacked by Drake Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the NDame 23 - USC 3, ND 17 -2.19 94.8% -2.9%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 77

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.62 - 1.57 = -2.19

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.57)

Score Difference (End): 14 (13.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.8%

Win Probability (After): 91.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:49 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 12 at ND 23) Jay Bramblett punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Gary Bryant Jr. at the USC 25 - USC 3, ND 17 1.03 91.8% 1.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.50 - -0.53 = 1.03

Score Difference (Before): 14 (13.47)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.50)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.8%

Win Probability (After): 93.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:42 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 25) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Keaontay Ingram for no gain to the USC 25 - USC 3, ND 17 -0.61 6.2% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.93 - -0.32 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.32)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.2%

Win Probability (After): 5.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:08 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 10 at USC 25) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tahj Washington for 21 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 17 2.41 6.2% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 54

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - -0.95 = 2.41

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.95)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.2%

Win Probability (After): 7.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:54 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 46) Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Gary Bryant Jr. - USC 3, ND 17 -0.57 7.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - 1.36 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.64)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.5%

Win Probability (After): 7.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:46 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 10 at USC 46) Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the USC 48 - USC 3, ND 17 -0.68 7.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 52

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.08 - 0.60 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.40)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.1%

Win Probability (After): 6.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:16 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 8 at USC 48) Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tahj Washington - USC 3, ND 17 -1.75 6.4% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.89 - -0.14 = -1.75

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.14)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 5.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:08 ESPN team id 30 (4th & 8 at USC 48) Ben Griffiths punt for 52 yds for a touchback - USC 3, ND 17 -0.49 5.0% -0.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 80

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.34 - -1.84 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.84)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.34)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.0%

Win Probability (After): 4.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 8:02 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 20) Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 22 - USC 3, ND 17 -0.54 95.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 78

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.76 - 2.30 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.30)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.4%

Win Probability (After): 95.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:47 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 8 at ND 22) Jack Coan pass incomplete to George Takacs - USC 3, ND 17 -1.08 95.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 1.74 = -1.08

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.74)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.3%

Win Probability (After): 94.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:41 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 8 at ND 22) Jack Coan pass complete to Deion Colzie for 13 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 17 2.43 94.8% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 65

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.06 - 0.63 = 2.43

Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.63)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.8%

Win Probability (After): 95.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:25 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 35) Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 36 - USC 3, ND 17 -0.52 95.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 64

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - 3.02 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.02)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.8%

Win Probability (After): 95.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:43 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 9 at ND 36) Kyren Williams run for 38 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 17 2.23 95.8% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 26

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.75 - 2.52 = 2.23

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.52)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.8%

Win Probability (After): 96.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:00 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at USC 26) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Deion Colzie - USC 3, ND 17 -0.64 97.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.17 - 4.81 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.81)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.3%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:54 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at USC 26) Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the USC 24 - USC 3, ND 17 -0.80 97.1% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 24

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.42 - 4.22 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.22)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.1%

Win Probability (After): 96.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:12 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 8 at USC 24) Coan, Jack pass incomplete to Mayer, Michael, PENALTY USC pass interference (Alford, Xavion) 5 yards to the USC19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME. - USC 3, ND 17 1.74 96.9% 0.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 19

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.15 - 3.42 = 1.74

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.42)

Score Difference (End): 14 (19.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.9%

Win Probability (After): 97.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:06 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at USC 19) C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds to the USC 16 - USC 3, ND 17 -0.20 97.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 16

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.95 - 5.15 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): 14 (19.15)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.5%

Win Probability (After): 97.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:41 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 7 at USC 16) C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the USC 15 - USC 3, ND 17 -0.72 97.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 15

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.23 - 4.95 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.95)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.5%

Win Probability (After): 97.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:18 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 6 at USC 15) Timeout USC, clock 04:18 - USC 3, ND 17 0.00 97.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.23 - 4.23 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.23)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.2%

Win Probability (After): 97.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:11 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 6 at USC 15) Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the USC 10 - USC 3, ND 17 0.09 97.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 10

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.35 - 4.26 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.26)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.7%

Win Probability (After): 97.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:10 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 1 at USC 10) Jack Coan run for 1 yd to the USC 9 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 17 1.32 97.6% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 9

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.65 - 4.33 = 1.32

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.33)

Score Difference (End): 14 (19.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.6%

Win Probability (After): 97.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 4:00 ESPN team id 87 (1st & Goal at USC 9) USC Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the USC 4 - USC 3, ND 17 0.60 97.9% 0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 4

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.25 - 5.65 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): 14 (19.65)

Score Difference (End): 14 (20.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.9%

Win Probability (After): 98.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:20 ESPN team id 87 (1st & Goal at USC 4) Tyler Buchner run for 3 yds to the USC 1 - USC 3, ND 17 0.16 98.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 1

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.41 - 6.25 = 0.16

Score Difference (Before): 14 (20.25)

Score Difference (End): 14 (20.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.3%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:51 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & Goal at USC 1) Kyren Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - USC 3, ND 24 0.58 98.3% 1.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.42 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): 14 (20.42)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 24

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:51 ESPN team id 30 (Kickoff at USC 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 60 yds , Tahj Washington return for 18 yds to the USC 23 - USC 3, ND 24 -0.04 0.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 77

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.34 - -1.30 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-22.30)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-22.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:38 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 23) Keaontay Ingram run for 22 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 24 1.67 0.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 55

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.33 - -1.34 = 1.67

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-22.34)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-20.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:09 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 45) Keaontay Ingram run for 2 yds to the USC 47 - USC 3, ND 24 -0.50 0.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 53

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - 0.31 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.69)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-21.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:34 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 8 at USC 47) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 18 yds to the NDame 35 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 24 2.36 0.7% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 35

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.25 - -0.11 = 2.36

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.11)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-18.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:20 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at ND 35) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 7 yds to the NDame 28 - USC 3, ND 24 0.85 0.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 28

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.17 - 2.33 = 0.85

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-18.67)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-17.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:40 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 3 at ND 28) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 2 yds to the NDame 26 - USC 3, ND 24 -0.41 0.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 26

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.73 - 3.14 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-17.86)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-18.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:26 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 1 at ND 26) Keaontay Ingram run for 13 yds to the NDame 13 for a 1ST down - USC 3, ND 24 1.78 0.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 13

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.50 - 2.72 = 1.78

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-18.28)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-16.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:10 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at ND 13) Keaontay Ingram run for 9 yds to the NDame 4 - USC 3, ND 24 1.22 0.9% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 4

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.70 - 4.48 = 1.22

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-16.52)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-15.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.9%

Win Probability (After): 1.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:56 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 1 at ND 4) Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake London - USC 3, ND 24 -0.58 1.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.99 - 5.57 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-15.43)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-16.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 3, ND 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:52 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 1 at ND 4) Keaontay Ingram run for 4 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK) - USC 10, ND 24 1.98 0.9% 3.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.02 = 1.98

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-15.98)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.9%

Win Probability (After): 4.5%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:52 ESPN team id 87 (Kickoff at ND 35) Parker Lewis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - USC 10, ND 24 0.00 97.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.55 - 2.55 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.55)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.1%

Win Probability (After): 97.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:47 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 25) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 5 yds to the NDame 30 - USC 10, ND 24 0.01 97.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.54 - 2.54 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.54)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.1%

Win Probability (After): 97.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:20 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 5 at ND 30) Diggs, Logan rush for 12 yards to the NOTREDAME42, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Takacs, George) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME20, NO PLAY. - USC 10, ND 24 -1.10 97.2% -0.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 80

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - 2.56 = -1.10

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.56)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:00 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 15 at ND 20) Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the NDame 22 - USC 10, ND 24 -0.93 97.0% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 78

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - 1.38 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.38)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.0%

Win Probability (After): 96.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:30 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 13 at ND 22) Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 17 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST down - USC 10, ND 24 2.79 96.6% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 61

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.18 - 0.40 = 2.79

Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.40)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.6%

Win Probability (After): 97.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:51 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 39) Kyren Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 38 - USC 10, ND 24 -0.65 98.0% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 62

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.42 - 3.08 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.08)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.0%

Win Probability (After): 97.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:15 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 11 at ND 38) Kyren Williams run for 5 yds to the NDame 43 - USC 10, ND 24 -0.43 97.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 57

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - 2.39 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.39)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.7%

Win Probability (After): 97.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:40 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 6 at ND 43) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 15 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST down - USC 10, ND 24 1.96 97.7% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 42

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.99 - 2.03 = 1.96

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.03)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.7%

Win Probability (After): 98.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:25 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at USC 42) Jack Coan pass intercepted Chris Steele return for no gain to the USC 14 - USC 10, ND 24 -3.07 98.8% -2.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 86

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 3.94 = -3.07

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.94)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.86)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.8%

Win Probability (After): 96.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:15 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 14) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 44 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST down - USC 10, ND 24 3.03 3.3% 2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 42

Started Drive at: USC 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.33 - -0.69 = 3.03

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.69)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.3%

Win Probability (After): 5.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:00 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at ND 42) Keaontay Ingram run for 5 yds to the NDame 37 - USC 10, ND 24 0.10 5.2% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 37

Started Drive at: USC 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.50 - 2.39 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.61)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.2%

Win Probability (After): 5.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:32 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 5 at ND 37) Keaontay Ingram run for 3 yds to the NDame 34 - USC 10, ND 24 -0.14 5.1% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 34

Started Drive at: USC 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.45 - 2.59 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.41)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.1%

Win Probability (After): 5.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:11 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 2 at ND 34) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 3 yds to the NDame 31 for a 1ST down - USC 10, ND 24 0.83 5.2% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 31

Started Drive at: USC 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.35 - 2.52 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.48)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.2%

Win Probability (After): 5.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:00 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at ND 31) Slovis, Kedon pass incomplete to Manjack IV, Joseph, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference 15 yards to the NOTREDAME16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN USC. - USC 10, ND 24 1.24 5.4% 1.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 16

Started Drive at: USC 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.60 - 3.36 = 1.24

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.64)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.4%

Win Probability (After): 6.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:36 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at ND 16) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 8 yds to the NDame 8 - USC 10, ND 24 0.63 6.9% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 8

Started Drive at: USC 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.21 - 4.58 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.42)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-8.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.9%

Win Probability (After): 7.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:22 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 2 at ND 8) Darwin Barlow run for 4 yds to the NDame 4 for a 1ST down - USC 10, ND 24 0.51 7.1% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 4

Started Drive at: USC 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.71 - 5.20 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-8.80)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-8.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.1%

Win Probability (After): 7.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:05 ESPN team id 30 (1st & Goal at ND 4) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 1 yd to the NDame 3 - USC 10, ND 24 -0.29 7.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 3

Started Drive at: USC 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.44 - 5.73 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-8.27)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-8.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 10, ND 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.2%

Win Probability (After): 7.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:51 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & Goal at ND 3) Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis PAT MISSED) - USC 16, ND 24 0.59 7.1% 0.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 5.41 = 0.59

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-8.59)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.1%

Win Probability (After): 8.0%

Away Score: 10 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:51 ESPN team id 87 (Kickoff at ND 35) Parker Lewis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - USC 16, ND 24 0.00 93.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.23 - 1.23 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.23)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.4%

Win Probability (After): 93.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:42 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 25) Kyren Williams run for 9 yds to the NDame 34 - USC 16, ND 24 0.68 93.6% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.88 - 1.20 = 0.68

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.20)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.6%

Win Probability (After): 94.2%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:11 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 1 at ND 34) Jack Coan pass complete to Avery Davis for 6 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST down - USC 16, ND 24 0.17 94.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 60

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.04 - 1.86 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.86)

Score Difference (End): 8 (10.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.8%

Win Probability (After): 94.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 7:40 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 40) Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 42 - USC 16, ND 24 -0.48 95.4% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 58

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 2.04 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 8 (10.04)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.4%

Win Probability (After): 94.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 7:12 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 8 at ND 42) Coan, Jack pass incomplete to Austin Jr., Kevin, PENALTY USC pass interference (Steele, Chris) 15 yards to the USC43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME. - USC 16, ND 24 1.31 94.8% 1.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 43

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 1.68 = 1.31

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.68)

Score Difference (End): 8 (10.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.8%

Win Probability (After): 96.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 7:00 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at USC 43) Kyren Williams run for 11 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST down - USC 16, ND 24 0.66 96.5% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 32

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 3.14 = 0.66

Score Difference (Before): 8 (11.14)

Score Difference (End): 8 (11.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.5%

Win Probability (After): 96.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 6:30 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at USC 32) Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Xavion Alford) to the USC 15 for a 1ST down - USC 16, ND 24 1.00 96.9% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 15

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.79 - 3.76 = 1.00

Score Difference (Before): 8 (11.79)

Score Difference (End): 8 (12.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.9%

Win Probability (After): 97.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 6:00 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at USC 15) Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the USC 13 - USC 16, ND 24 -0.39 97.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 13

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.30 - 4.69 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 8 (12.69)

Score Difference (End): 8 (12.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.3%

Win Probability (After): 97.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:26 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 8 at USC 13) Kyren Williams run for 10 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST down - USC 16, ND 24 1.74 97.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 3

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.98 - 4.24 = 1.74

Score Difference (Before): 8 (12.24)

Score Difference (End): 8 (13.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.4%

Win Probability (After): 97.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:52 ESPN team id 87 (1st & Goal at USC 3) Tyler Buchner run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - USC 16, ND 31 1.06 99.0% 0.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.94 = 1.06

Score Difference (Before): 8 (13.94)

Score Difference (End): 15 (15.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 31

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.0%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:52 ESPN team id 30 (Kickoff at USC 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 63 yds , Tahj Washington return for 17 yds to the USC 19 - USC 16, ND 31 -0.28 1.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 81

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.29 - 0.57 = -0.28

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-14.43)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-14.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 31

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.9%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:38 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 19) Keaontay Ingram run for 10 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST down - USC 16, ND 31 0.70 0.9% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 71

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.93 - 0.23 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-14.77)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-14.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.9%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:22 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 29) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Kyle Ford for 13 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST down - USC 16, ND 31 0.78 1.1% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 58

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.72 - 0.94 = 0.78

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-14.06)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-13.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 1.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:01 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 42) Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 6 yds to the USC 48 - USC 16, ND 31 0.30 1.2% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 52

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 1.73 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-13.27)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-12.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:46 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 4 at USC 48) Ingram, Keaontay rush for 13 yards to the NOTREDAME39, PENALTY USC holding (Neilon, Brett) 10 yards to the USC38, NO PLAY. - USC 16, ND 31 -1.25 1.2% -0.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 62

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.60 - 1.85 = -1.25

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-13.15)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-14.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.9%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:26 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 14 at USC 38) Keaontay Ingram run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 35 - USC 16, ND 31 -0.67 0.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 65

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.13 - 0.54 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-14.46)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-15.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 31

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.9%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:00 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 17 at USC 35) Kedon Slovis run for 4 yds to the USC 39 USC Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Kedon Slovis) to the USC 34 - USC 16, ND 31 -1.13 0.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 66

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.26 - 0.01 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-15.13)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-16.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 31

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:45 ESPN team id 30 (4th & 18 at USC 34) Kedon Slovis sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 17 yards to the USC 14 Kedon Slovis fumbled, recovered by NDame TaRiq Bracy , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds to the USC 14 - USC 16, ND 31 -3.52 0.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 14

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.58 - -1.06 = -3.52

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-16.06)

Score Difference (End): 15 (19.58)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 16, ND 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:38 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at USC 14) Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the USC 11 - USC 16, ND 31 -0.10 99.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 11

Started Drive at: USC 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.32 - 4.42 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): 15 (19.42)

Score Difference (End): 15 (19.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:58 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 7 at USC 11) Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the USC 8 - USC 16, ND 31 -0.24 99.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 8

Started Drive at: USC 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.93 - 4.18 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): 15 (19.18)

Score Difference (End): 15 (18.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:56 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 4 at USC 8) Timeout USC, clock 01:56 - USC 16, ND 31 0.00 99.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8

Started Drive at: USC 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.93 - 3.93 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 15 (18.93)

Score Difference (End): 15 (18.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:51 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 4 at USC 8) Tyler Buchner run for 5 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST down - USC 16, ND 31 2.00 99.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 3

Started Drive at: USC 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.75 - 3.74 = 2.00

Score Difference (Before): 15 (18.74)

Score Difference (End): 15 (20.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:17 ESPN team id 87 (1st & Goal at USC 3) NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Josh Lugg) to the USC 8 - USC 16, ND 31 -0.87 99.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 8

Started Drive at: USC 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.82 - 5.69 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): 15 (20.69)

Score Difference (End): 15 (19.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:15 ESPN team id 87 (1st & Goal at USC 8) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 10 - USC 16, ND 31 -0.89 99.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 10

Started Drive at: USC 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 4.81 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): 15 (19.81)

Score Difference (End): 15 (18.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 31

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:35 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & Goal at USC 10) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 12 - USC 16, ND 31 -1.18 99.7% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 12

Started Drive at: USC 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.70 - 3.88 = -1.18

Score Difference (Before): 15 (18.88)

Score Difference (End): 15 (17.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 16, ND 31

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1