Illinois 20 @ Penn State 18

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 7.59 | Odds: PSU -24.5, O/U 45.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 356 ESPN team id 213
Total Plays 171128
Total EPA 0.64-21.01
  Offensive EPA -0.84-21.08
  Special Teams EPA -2.34-1.75
  Penalty EPA 3.454.36
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 0.37-2.54
Production ESPN team id 356 ESPN team id 213
Scrimmage Plays 162116
  Yards 846447
  Yards/Play 5.223.85
  EPA -0.84-21.08
  EPA/Play -0.01-0.18
Passes 45 (28%)65 (56%)
  Yards 70226
  Yards/Play 1.563.48
  EPA -28.82-11.61
  EPA/Play -0.64-0.18
Rushes 117 (72%)48 (41%)
  Yards 737171
  Yards/Play 6.303.56
  EPA 27.97-12.71
  EPA/Play 0.24-0.26
Rushing ESPN team id 356 ESPN team id 213
Scrimmage Plays 162116
Rushes 117 (72%)48 (41%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 4 (3%)1 (2%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 4 (100%)1 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 17 (15%)9 (19%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 36 (31%)25 (52%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 67 (57%)19 (40%)
OL Line Yards 242.271.7
  Per Carry 2.071.49
Highlight Yards 256.539
  Per Rush Opportunity 3.832.05
Explosiveness ESPN team id 356 ESPN team id 213
Total Plays 171128
Scrimmage Plays 162116
Explosive Plays 4 (2%)2 (2%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 0 (0%)2 (3%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 4 (3%)0 (0%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -9.14-26.44
  EPA/Play -0.06-0.23
  When Passing -28.82-16.97
    EPA/Play -0.64-0.26
  When Rushing 19.67-12.71
    EPA/Play 0.17-0.26
Situational ESPN team id 356 ESPN team id 213
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 85 (52%)42 (36%)
  When Passing 16 (36%)24 (37%)
  When Rushing 69 (59%)15 (31%)
  On Standard Downs 68 (58%)29 (43%)
  On Passing Downs 17 (38%)10 (22%)
  On Early Downs 68 (52%)29 (35%)
  On Late Downs 17 (53%)13 (38%)
  During "Middle 8" 15 (58%)8 (30%)
Early Downs 13082
  First Downs Created 29 (22%)14 (17%)
  EPA 4.97-13.84
  EPA/Play 0.04-0.17
  Passes 28 (22%)41 (50%)
  Rushes 102 (78%)41 (50%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 11 (39%)15 (37%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 57 (56%)14 (34%)
"Middle 8" Plays 2627
  EPA -1.40-4.32
  EPA/play -0.05-0.16
  Passes 13 (50%)18 (67%)
  Rushes 13 (50%)9 (33%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 6 (46%)6 (33%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 9 (69%)2 (22%)
Drives ESPN team id 356 ESPN team id 213
Total 1515
Avg Starting Field Position Own 21Own 34
Plays/Drive 9.165.53
Yards/Drive 41.8717.29
Available Yards % 53%26%
Defensive ESPN team id 356 ESPN team id 213
Scrimmage Plays 116162
Stop Rate 70%41%
Havoc Plays Created 16 (14%)10 (6%)
  Passing 10 (15%)7 (16%)
  Rushing 6 (13%)3 (3%)
TFLs Generated 169
  Passing 106
  Rushing 63
Sacks Generated 6 (9%)6 (13%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 01
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 356 ESPN team id 213
Turnovers 30
  Fumbles 21
  Fumbles Lost 20
  Fumbles Recovered 01
  Interceptions 10
Turnover Margin -33
Expected Turnovers 1.71.5
Expected Turnover Margin -0.20.2
Turnover Luck (pts) -13.913.9
Special Teams ESPN team id 356 ESPN team id 213
Total Plays 9 12
Total EPA -2.34 -1.75
  Field Goal EPA -2.9 -3.01
  Punting EPA 0.51 1.24
  Kickoff Return EPA 0.04 0.02

Illinois [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Casey Washington 1/5, 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 49.2 xQBR 1.20 -0.16 -0.78 40% 64.0%
Artur Sitkowski 14/34, 64 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 6 Scks, 17.1 xQBR 1.60 -0.70 -28.04 35% -118.0%
Rush attempts
Chase Brown 60 carries, 421 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.02 0.27 16.30 57% -23.0%
Joshua McCray 45 carries, 270 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.14 6.22 56% 6.0%
Artur Sitkowski 12 carries, 46 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.83 0.45 5.45 83% -1.0%
Pass targets
Daniel Barker 3 catches (4 targets), 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.33 0.75 3.01 75% 65.0%
Chase Brown 2 catches (2 targets), 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 1.30 2.60 100% 2.0%
Donny Navarro III 4 catches (5 targets), 24 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.20 0.98 80% 0.0%
Jakari Norwood 2 catches (2 targets), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 0.03 0.05 50% -43.0%
Luke Ford 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.96 -0.96 0% -2.0%
Isaiah Williams 4 catches (5 targets), 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.50 -0.41 -2.04 40% -2.0%
Casey Washington 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.58 -3.16 0% -2.0%

Penn State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
TEAM 2/2, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 61.7 xQBR 0.00 0.20 0.39 100% 2.0%
Sean Clifford 31/57, 226 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 6 Scks, 21.0 xQBR 3.59 -0.19 -12.00 35% 6.0%
Rush attempts
Tyler Warren 2 carries, 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.21 -0.41 0% -2.0%
Noah Cain 20 carries, 81 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.05 -0.05 -0.96 45% -36.0%
Sean Clifford 2 carries, -4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -2.00 -1.00 -2.00 0% -13.0%
John Lovett 10 carries, 42 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.20 -0.20 -2.04 20% -27.0%
Keyvone Lee 14 carries, 48 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.43 -0.52 -7.30 29% -1.0%
Pass targets
Jahan Dotson 12 catches (14 targets), 137 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 12.45 0.60 8.35 71% 13.0%
Parker Washington 7 catches (9 targets), 24 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.43 0.53 4.81 56% -5.0%
Brenton Strange 3 catches (3 targets), 43 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.33 1.11 3.34 100% 3.0%
Noah Cain 1 catch (1 target), 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 0.59 0.59 100% 49.0%
Theo Johnson 1 catch (1 target), 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.04 -0.04 0% 0.0%
KeAndre Lambert-Smith 4 catches (4 targets), 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.50 -0.32 -1.27 0% -11.0%
John Lovett 4 catches (4 targets), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.78 -3.14 0% -6.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 13:37 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at PSU 32) Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted return for no gain to the PnSt 34 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -5.98 7.0% -3.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 66

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.89 - 4.09 = -5.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.09)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.89)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.0%

Win Probability (After): 3.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:02 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 4 at ILL 45) Artur Sitkowski sacked for 0 yards to the Illin 22 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -5.80 14.2% -6.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 22

Started Drive at: ILL 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.66 - 1.14 = -5.80

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.86)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.66)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.2%

Win Probability (After): 8.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:53 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 8 at ILL 39) Artur Sitkowski sacked for 0 yards to the Illin 39 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Illin 40 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 7 -4.75 6.7% -2.5%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 40

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.07 - 0.66 = -4.75

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.32)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.07)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 0, PSU 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.7%

Win Probability (After): 4.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:19 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 10 at ILL 22) Jordan Stout 40 yd FG MISSED - ILL 7, PSU 10 -3.01 89.6% -4.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 78

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.67 - 2.34 = -3.01

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.34)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.33)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.6%

Win Probability (After): 85.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:40 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 8 at PSU 34) ILLINOIS Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Devon Witherspoon) to the Illin 41 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 2.95 85.2% 4.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 41

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.58 - 0.62 = 2.95

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.62)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.2%

Win Probability (After): 89.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:16 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 8 at PSU 34) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 10 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Illin 41 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 2.95 85.3% 4.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 41

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.57 - 0.60 = 2.95

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.62)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.3%

Win Probability (After): 89.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:40 ESPN team id 356 (4th & 8 at PSU 32) James McCourt 50 yd FG MISSED - ILL 7, PSU 10 -2.90 14.9% -2.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 68

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.00 - 0.90 = -2.90

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.10)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.9%

Win Probability (After): 12.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:33 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 9 at PSU 49) Sitkowski, Artur pass incomplete, PENALTY PENNST pass interference 15 yards to the PENNST34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS. - ILL 7, PSU 10 2.51 15.4% 5.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 34

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.65 - 1.14 = 2.51

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.86)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.4%

Win Probability (After): 20.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:19 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 9 at PSU 49) SITKOWSKI, Artur pass to the right incomplete intended for WASHINGTON, Casey thrown to the PSU38. PENALTY PSU Pass Interference on PORTER JR., Joey enforced 15 yards to the PSU34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - ILL 7, PSU 10 2.48 15.4% 5.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 34

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.72 - 1.24 = 2.48

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.76)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.4%

Win Probability (After): 20.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:04 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 22) Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 36 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 0 2.41 90.6% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 42

Started Drive at: PSU 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.33 - 0.92 = 2.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.92)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.6%

Win Probability (After): 92.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
8OT ESPN team id 213 (0th & Goal at PSU 0) Isaiah Williams Two-Point Conversion Pass from Brandon Peters - ILL 18, PSU 16 1.08 97.6% -83.5%

Play Type: Two Point Pass

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 100 -> 99

Started Drive at: PSU 0

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 0.92 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.92)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 18, PSU 16

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.6%

Win Probability (After): 14.1%

Away Score: 7 (18) Home Score: 13 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

2OT ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 9 at PSU 24) Casey Washington pass complete to Daniel Barker for 6 yds to the PnSt 18 - ILL 13, PSU 13 0.83 13.1% 66.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 18

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.50 - 1.67 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.33)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 13, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.1%

Win Probability (After): 79.2%

Away Score: 10 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

OT ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 4 at PSU 19) Chase Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 21 - ILL 10, PSU 13 -0.51 79.3% -63.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 21

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.90 - 2.41 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.41)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.3%

Win Probability (After): 16.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

2OT ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 9 at ILL 24) Noah Cain run for 7 yds to the Illin 17 - ILL 16, PSU 13 -0.41 89.9% -50.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 17

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 2.34 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.34)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 16, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.9%

Win Probability (After): 39.3%

Away Score: 13 (16) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

OT ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ILL 25) Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 3 yds to the Illin 22 - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.59 42.1% 48.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 22

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 1.80 = 0.59

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.20)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.1%

Win Probability (After): 90.8%

Away Score: 20 (10) Home Score: 18 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

8OT ESPN team id 213 (0th & Goal at PSU 0) Noah Cain Two-Point Conversion Rush - ILL 18, PSU 18 1.08 9.5% 40.9%

Play Type: Two Point Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 100 -> 99

Started Drive at: PSU 0

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 0.92 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 18, PSU 18

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.5%

Win Probability (After): 50.5%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 16 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 10 at ILL 42) Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Jakari Norwood for 2 yds to the Illin 44 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.32 49.7% -40.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 99

Started Drive at: ILL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - 0.28 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.7%

Win Probability (After): 9.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:43 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 9 at PSU 39) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker Washington - ILL 10, PSU 10 -1.14 81.6% -29.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: PSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 1.08 = -1.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.6%

Win Probability (After): 52.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

3OT ESPN team id 213 (1st & Goal at ILL 2) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 16, PSU 13 0.19 56.1% 28.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 2

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.13 - 2.94 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.06)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 16, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.1%

Win Probability (After): 84.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 3:01 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 9 at PSU 39) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 10, PSU 10 -1.53 73.7% -25.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: PSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.49 - 1.04 = -1.53

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.04)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.7%

Win Probability (After): 48.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
8OT ESPN team id 213 (0th & Goal at PSU 0) Isaiah Williams Two-Point Conversion Pass from Brandon Peters - ILL 18, PSU 16 1.08 97.6% -83.5%

Play Type: Two Point Pass

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 100 -> 99

Started Drive at: PSU 0

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 0.92 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.92)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 18, PSU 16

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.6%

Win Probability (After): 14.1%

Away Score: 7 (18) Home Score: 13 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

8OT ESPN team id 213 (0th & Goal at PSU 0) Noah Cain Two-Point Conversion Rush - ILL 18, PSU 18 1.08 9.5% 40.9%

Play Type: Two Point Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 100 -> 99

Started Drive at: PSU 0

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 0.92 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 18, PSU 18

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.5%

Win Probability (After): 50.5%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 16 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

9OT ESPN team id 213 (0th & Goal at PSU 0) Casey Washington Two-Point Conversion Pass from Brandon Peters - ILL 20, PSU 18 1.08 82.1% 12.7%

Play Type: Two Point Pass

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 100 -> 99

Started Drive at: PSU 0

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 0.92 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.92)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 20, PSU 18

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.1%

Win Probability (After): 94.7%

Away Score: 18 (20) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 356 (Kickoff at ILL 35) Jordan Stout kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ILL 0, PSU 0 0.00 2.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.8%

Win Probability (After): 2.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 25) Chase Brown run for 9 yds to the Illin 34 - ILL 0, PSU 0 1.23 2.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.09 - 0.86 = 1.23

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.8%

Win Probability (After): 3.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 1 at ILL 34) SITKOWSKI, Artur pass to the left incomplete intended for WASHINGTON, Casey thrown to the PSU32. PENALTY PSU Pass Interference on CASTRO-FIELDS, Tariq enforced 16 yards to the ILL50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down). - ILL 0, PSU 0 0.60 3.0% 0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 50

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.70 - 2.09 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.09)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.0%

Win Probability (After): 3.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at 50) Chase Brown run for 18 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 0 1.18 3.2% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 32

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.88 - 2.70 = 1.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.70)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.2%

Win Probability (After): 3.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:51 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 25) Chase Brown run for 9 yds to the Illin 34 - ILL 0, PSU 0 1.01 2.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.09 - 1.08 = 1.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.8%

Win Probability (After): 3.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:16 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 1 at ILL 34) PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (16 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 0 0.92 5.7% -2.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 50

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.15 - 2.23 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.23)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.7%

Win Probability (After): 3.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:08 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at 50) Chase Brown run for 18 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 0 1.34 6.1% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 32

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 2.75 = 1.34

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.75)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.1%

Win Probability (After): 6.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:37 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at PSU 32) Artur Sitkowski pass intercepted return for no gain to the PnSt 34 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -5.98 7.0% -3.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 66

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.89 - 4.09 = -5.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.09)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.89)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.0%

Win Probability (After): 3.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:37 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 34) Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 31 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -1.42 96.6% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 69

Started Drive at: PSU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.51 - 1.92 = -1.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.92)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.6%

Win Probability (After): 96.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:37 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 13 at PSU 31) Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the PnSt 32 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -1.04 96.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 68

Started Drive at: PSU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.53 - 0.51 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.51)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.1%

Win Probability (After): 95.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:37 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 12 at PSU 32) Sean Clifford sacked by Owen Carney Jr. for 0 yards to the PnSt 27 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -1.50 95.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 73

Started Drive at: PSU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.03 - -0.53 = -1.50

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.7%

Win Probability (After): 95.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:27 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 34) Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 31 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -1.40 96.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 69

Started Drive at: PSU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.51 - 1.91 = -1.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.91)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.5%

Win Probability (After): 96.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:52 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 13 at PSU 31) Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the PnSt 32 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -1.06 92.7% 2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 68

Started Drive at: PSU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.54 - 0.51 = -1.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.51)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.7%

Win Probability (After): 95.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:34 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 12 at PSU 32) Sean Clifford sacked by Owen Carney Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 27 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -1.47 91.9% -0.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 73

Started Drive at: PSU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.00 - -0.53 = -1.47

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, -9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.9%

Win Probability (After): 91.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:25 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 17 at PSU 27) Jordan Stout punt for 38 yds - ILL 0, PSU 0 1.15 88.8% 5.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 75

Started Drive at: PSU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.06 - -2.20 = 1.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.20)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.06)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, -9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.8%

Win Probability (After): 93.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 11:25 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 25) Joshua McCray run for 9 yds to the Illin 34 - ILL 0, PSU 0 1.18 7.8% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.20 - 1.01 = 1.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.8%

Win Probability (After): 8.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:25 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 1 at ILL 34) Joshua McCray run for 10 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 0 0.24 8.5% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 56

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.44 - 2.20 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.20)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.5%

Win Probability (After): 8.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:25 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 44) Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 1 yd to the Illin 45 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -0.63 8.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 55

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - 2.44 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.44)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.8%

Win Probability (After): 8.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:25 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 9 at ILL 45) Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 46 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -0.90 8.5% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 54

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - 1.81 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.81)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.5%

Win Probability (After): 7.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:25 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 8 at ILL 46) Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete - ILL 0, PSU 0 -1.76 7.8% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.85 - 0.91 = -1.76

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.91)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.8%

Win Probability (After): 7.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:11 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 25) Joshua McCray run for 9 yds to the Illin 34 - ILL 0, PSU 0 1.18 7.6% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.20 - 1.01 = 1.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.6%

Win Probability (After): 8.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:40 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 1 at ILL 34) Joshua McCray run for 10 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 0 0.14 7.8% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 56

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.44 - 2.30 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.30)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.8%

Win Probability (After): 8.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:08 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 44) Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 1 yd to the Illin 45 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -0.58 7.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 55

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 2.53 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.8%

Win Probability (After): 8.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:28 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 9 at ILL 45) Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Illin 46 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -0.86 7.9% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 54

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.06 - 1.92 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.92)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.9%

Win Probability (After): 7.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:53 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 8 at ILL 46) Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Casey Washington - ILL 0, PSU 0 -1.64 5.8% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.67 - 0.98 = -1.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.8%

Win Probability (After): 6.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:45 ESPN team id 356 (4th & 8 at ILL 46) Blake Hayes punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 12 - ILL 0, PSU 0 0.54 5.3% 2.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 88

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.23 - -0.77 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.23)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.3%

Win Probability (After): 7.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:45 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 12) Keyvone Lee run for 13 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 0 0.78 92.5% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 75

Started Drive at: PSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 0.23 = 0.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.23)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.5%

Win Probability (After): 92.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:45 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 25) Keyvone Lee run for 8 yds to the PnSt 33 - ILL 0, PSU 0 0.77 92.9% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67

Started Drive at: PSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.78 - 1.01 = 0.77

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.9%

Win Probability (After): 93.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:45 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 2 at PSU 33) Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the PnSt 33 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -1.00 93.3% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: PSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.78 - 1.78 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.3%

Win Probability (After): 92.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:45 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 2 at PSU 33) Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the PnSt 34 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -1.25 92.5% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 66

Started Drive at: PSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.46 - 0.78 = -1.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.5%

Win Probability (After): 91.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:38 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 12) Keyvone Lee run for 13 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 0 0.77 91.0% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 75

Started Drive at: PSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 0.25 = 0.77

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.25)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.0%

Win Probability (After): 92.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:16 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 25) Keyvone Lee run for 8 yds to the PnSt 33 - ILL 0, PSU 0 0.74 90.3% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67

Started Drive at: PSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.80 - 1.06 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.3%

Win Probability (After): 91.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:43 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 2 at PSU 33) Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the PnSt 33 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -0.95 92.0% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: PSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 1.78 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.0%

Win Probability (After): 89.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:17 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 2 at PSU 33) Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the PnSt 34 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -1.31 92.6% -2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 66

Started Drive at: PSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.46 - 0.85 = -1.31

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.85)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:17 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 1 at PSU 34) Jordan Stout punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 11 - ILL 0, PSU 0 0.17 90.9% 1.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 89

Started Drive at: PSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.23 - -0.40 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.40)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.23)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.9%

Win Probability (After): 92.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 6:17 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 11) Chase Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 10 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -1.32 9.3% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 90

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.04 - 0.27 = -1.32

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.27)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.3%

Win Probability (After): 8.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:17 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 11 at ILL 10) Chase Brown run for 8 yds to the Illin 18 - ILL 0, PSU 0 0.70 8.5% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 82

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - -1.04 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.04)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.5%

Win Probability (After): 8.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:17 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 3 at ILL 18) Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Chase Brown for 6 yds to the Illin 24 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 0 1.30 8.8% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 76

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - -0.35 = 1.30

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.8%

Win Probability (After): 9.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:17 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 24) Chase Brown run for 15 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 0 1.14 9.6% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 61

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.10 - 0.95 = 1.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.6%

Win Probability (After): 10.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:17 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 39) Chase Brown run for no gain to the Illin 39 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -0.67 10.5% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.43 - 2.10 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.5%

Win Probability (After): 9.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:17 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 10 at ILL 39) Casey Washington pass incomplete - ILL 0, PSU 0 -0.91 9.7% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - 1.43 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.43)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.7%

Win Probability (After): 9.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:17 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 10 at ILL 39) Chase Brown run for 7 yds to the Illin 46 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -0.93 9.3% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 54

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.41 - 0.52 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.52)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.3%

Win Probability (After): 8.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:55 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 11) Chase Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 10 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -1.31 11.1% -2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 90

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.04 - 0.27 = -1.31

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.27)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.1%

Win Probability (After): 8.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:22 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 11 at ILL 10) Chase Brown run for 8 yds to the Illin 18 - ILL 0, PSU 0 0.71 10.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 82

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - -1.05 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.4%

Win Probability (After): 10.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:44 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 3 at ILL 18) Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Chase Brown for 6 yds to the Illin 24 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 0 1.30 11.1% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 76

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - -0.35 = 1.30

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.1%

Win Probability (After): 12.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:10 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 24) Chase Brown run for 15 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 0 1.15 8.0% 4.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 61

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.09 - 0.95 = 1.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.0%

Win Probability (After): 12.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:33 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 39) Chase Brown run for no gain to the Illin 39 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -0.65 9.7% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.43 - 2.08 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.7%

Win Probability (After): 8.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:10 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 10 at ILL 39) Casey Washington pass incomplete to Isaiah Williams - ILL 0, PSU 0 -0.90 9.3% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - 1.42 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.42)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.3%

Win Probability (After): 8.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:44 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 10 at ILL 39) Chase Brown run for 7 yds to the Illin 46 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -0.99 8.9% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 54

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.46 - 0.53 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.9%

Win Probability (After): 8.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:04 ESPN team id 356 (4th & 3 at ILL 46) Blake Hayes punt for 47 yds, downed at the PnSt 7 - ILL 0, PSU 0 0.63 8.5% 3.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 93

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.16 - -0.47 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.47)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.16)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.5%

Win Probability (After): 11.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:04 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 7) Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the PnSt 11 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -0.09 89.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 89

Started Drive at: PSU 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.23 - -0.13 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.7%

Win Probability (After): 89.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:04 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 6 at PSU 11) Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 11 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 0 1.14 89.6% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 78

Started Drive at: PSU 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.92 - -0.23 = 1.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.23)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:04 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 22) Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 36 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 0 2.41 90.6% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 42

Started Drive at: PSU 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.33 - 0.92 = 2.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.92)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.6%

Win Probability (After): 92.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:55 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 7) Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the PnSt 11 - ILL 0, PSU 0 -0.11 89.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 89

Started Drive at: PSU 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.23 - -0.12 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.12)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.7%

Win Probability (After): 89.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:10 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 6 at PSU 11) Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 11 yds Jahan Dotson fumbled, recovered by PnSt Parker Washington for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 0 1.09 88.9% 1.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 78

Started Drive at: PSU 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.93 - -0.16 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.9%

Win Probability (After): 90.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:44 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 22) Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 36 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 0 2.40 89.8% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 42

Started Drive at: PSU 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.38 - 0.99 = 2.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.99)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 102 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.8%

Win Probability (After): 92.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:09 ESPN team id 356 (Kickoff at ILL 35) Jordan Stout kickoff for 63 yds - ILL 0, PSU 0 0.00 12.7% -0.9%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.16 - 1.17 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.7%

Win Probability (After): 11.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:02 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 25) Joshua McCray run for 1 yd to the Illin 26 - ILL 0, PSU 7 -1.48 12.6% -7.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.31 - 1.16 = -1.48

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.16)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.6%

Win Probability (After): 5.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 25) Joshua McCray run for 1 yd to the Illin 26 - ILL 0, PSU 7 -0.49 5.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.32 - 0.16 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.84)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 5.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 9 at ILL 26) Chase Brown run for 8 yds to the Illin 34 - ILL 0, PSU 7 0.96 4.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 66

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - -0.32 = 0.96

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.32)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.5%

Win Probability (After): 4.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 1 at ILL 34) Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 14 -0.03 4.5% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 63

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.61 - 0.64 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.36)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.5%

Win Probability (After): 2.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 37) Joshua McCray run for 2 yds to the Illin 39 - ILL 0, PSU 14 -0.55 2.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 61

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 0.61 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.39)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.2%

Win Probability (After): 2.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:52 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 9 at ILL 26) Chase Brown run for 8 yds to the Illin 34 - ILL 0, PSU 7 1.58 1.9% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 66

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - -0.95 = 1.58

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.95)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.9%

Win Probability (After): 4.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:14 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 1 at ILL 34) Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 7 0.56 6.1% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 63

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 0.65 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.35)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.1%

Win Probability (After): 4.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:33 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 37) Joshua McCray run for 2 yds to the Illin 39 - ILL 0, PSU 7 -0.49 6.3% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 61

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.68 - 1.17 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.83)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.3%

Win Probability (After): 6.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:53 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 8 at ILL 39) Artur Sitkowski sacked for 0 yards to the Illin 39 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Illin 40 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 7 -4.75 6.7% -2.5%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 40

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.07 - 0.66 = -4.75

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.32)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.07)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 0, PSU 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.7%

Win Probability (After): 4.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:53 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ILL 40) Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the Illin 38 - ILL 0, PSU 14 -0.41 95.8% 2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 38

Started Drive at: ILL 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.60 - 4.01 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.01)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.8%

Win Probability (After): 98.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:53 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 8 at ILL 38) Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 19 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 14 1.49 98.1% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 19

Started Drive at: ILL 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.09 - 3.60 = 1.49

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.60)

Score Difference (End): 14 (19.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.1%

Win Probability (After): 98.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:53 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ILL 19) Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the Illin 17 - ILL 0, PSU 14 -0.36 98.5% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 17

Started Drive at: ILL 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.72 - 5.09 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 14 (19.09)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.5%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:42 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ILL 40) Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the Illin 38 - ILL 0, PSU 7 -0.67 98.2% -2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 38

Started Drive at: ILL 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 4.14 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.14)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.2%

Win Probability (After): 95.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:20 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 8 at ILL 38) Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 19 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 7 1.50 96.0% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 19

Started Drive at: ILL 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.02 - 3.53 = 1.50

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.53)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.0%

Win Probability (After): 96.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:55 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ILL 19) Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the Illin 17 - ILL 0, PSU 7 -0.33 97.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 17

Started Drive at: ILL 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.69 - 5.02 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.02)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.0%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:23 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 8 at ILL 17) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 0, PSU 7 -0.74 97.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: ILL 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 4.66 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.66)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.0%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:23 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 8 at ILL 17) Timeout PENN ST, clock 11:23 - ILL 0, PSU 14 0.00 96.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: ILL 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 3.92 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.92)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:23 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 8 at ILL 17) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 0, PSU 14 -1.25 98.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: ILL 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.67 - 3.92 = -1.25

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.92)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.5%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:17 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 8 at ILL 17) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker Washington - ILL 0, PSU 7 -1.22 98.3% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: ILL 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.67 - 3.90 = -1.22

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.90)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.3%

Win Probability (After): 96.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:13 ESPN team id 356 (Kickoff at ILL 35) Jordan Stout kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ILL 0, PSU 7 -0.01 6.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.42 - 0.43 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.57)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.1%

Win Probability (After): 6.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:12 ESPN team id 356 (Kickoff at ILL 35) Jordan Stout kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ILL 0, PSU 10 0.06 6.1% -1.6%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.50 - 0.43 = 0.06

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.57)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.1%

Win Probability (After): 4.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:12 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 25) Joshua McCray run for no gain to the Illin 25 - ILL 0, PSU 10 -0.53 4.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 0.50 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.50)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.5%

Win Probability (After): 4.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:12 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 10 at ILL 25) Artur Sitkowski run for 6 yds to the Illin 31 - ILL 0, PSU 10 0.15 4.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.12 - -0.03 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.03)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.2%

Win Probability (After): 4.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:12 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 4 at ILL 31) Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daniel Barker for 5 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 10 1.42 4.2% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 64

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - 0.12 = 1.42

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.88)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.2%

Win Probability (After): 5.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:12 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 36) Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 40 - ILL 0, PSU 10 -0.07 5.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 60

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 1.53 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.47)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.1%

Win Probability (After): 5.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:12 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 6 at ILL 40) Chase Brown run for 27 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 10 2.10 5.0% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 33

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.57 - 1.47 = 2.10

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.53)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.0%

Win Probability (After): 5.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:12 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at PSU 33) Joshua McCray run for no gain to the PnSt 33 - ILL 0, PSU 10 -0.54 5.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.02 - 3.57 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.43)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.7%

Win Probability (After): 5.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:12 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 10 at PSU 33) Chase Brown run for 8 yds to the PnSt 25 - ILL 0, PSU 10 0.36 5.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 25

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.39 - 3.02 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.98)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 5.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:12 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 2 at PSU 25) Artur Sitkowski run for 3 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 10 0.84 5.6% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 22

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.23 - 3.39 = 0.84

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.61)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 6.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:12 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at PSU 22) Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete - ILL 0, PSU 10 -0.53 6.0% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.70 - 4.23 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.77)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.0%

Win Probability (After): 5.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:12 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 10 at PSU 22) Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the PnSt 16 - ILL 0, PSU 10 0.19 5.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 16

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.89 - 3.70 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.30)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.9%

Win Probability (After): 5.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:12 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 4 at PSU 16) Joshua McCray run for 4 yds to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 10 0.83 5.9% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 12

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.72 - 3.89 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.11)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.9%

Win Probability (After): 6.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:12 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at PSU 12) Joshua McCray run for 5 yds to the PnSt 7 - ILL 0, PSU 10 0.13 6.2% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 7

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.85 - 4.72 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.28)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.2%

Win Probability (After): 6.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:12 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 5 at PSU 7) Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the PnSt 4 - ILL 0, PSU 10 -0.04 6.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 4

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.82 - 4.85 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.15)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 6.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:11 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 25) Joshua McCray run for no gain to the Illin 25 - ILL 0, PSU 10 -0.52 4.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 0.49 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.51)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.5%

Win Probability (After): 4.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:28 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 10 at ILL 25) Artur Sitkowski run for 6 yds to the Illin 31 - ILL 0, PSU 10 0.01 4.9% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.11 - 0.09 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.91)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.9%

Win Probability (After): 4.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:48 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 4 at ILL 31) Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daniel Barker for 5 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 10 1.39 5.1% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 64

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.61 - 0.22 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.78)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.1%

Win Probability (After): 5.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:15 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 36) Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 40 - ILL 0, PSU 10 -0.01 5.0% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 60

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.52 - 1.53 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.47)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 17 plays, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.0%

Win Probability (After): 6.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:42 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 6 at ILL 40) Chase Brown run for 27 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 10 2.18 4.4% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 33

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.53 - 1.35 = 2.18

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.65)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 18 plays, 113 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.4%

Win Probability (After): 5.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:58 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at PSU 33) Joshua McCray run for no gain to the PnSt 33 - ILL 0, PSU 10 -0.50 5.8% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.90 - 3.40 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.60)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 19 plays, 113 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.8%

Win Probability (After): 5.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:24 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 10 at PSU 33) Chase Brown run for 8 yds to the PnSt 25 - ILL 0, PSU 10 0.33 6.0% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 25

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 2.95 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.05)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 20 plays, 121 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.0%

Win Probability (After): 5.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:40 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 2 at PSU 25) Artur Sitkowski run for 3 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 10 0.74 7.5% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 22

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.11 - 3.37 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.63)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 21 plays, 124 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.5%

Win Probability (After): 6.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:03 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at PSU 22) Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete - ILL 0, PSU 10 -0.44 7.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.64 - 4.08 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.92)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 22 plays, 124 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.9%

Win Probability (After): 7.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:55 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 10 at PSU 22) Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the PnSt 16 - ILL 0, PSU 10 0.22 7.5% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 16

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.78 - 3.56 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.44)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 23 plays, 130 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.5%

Win Probability (After): 7.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:20 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 4 at PSU 16) Joshua McCray run for 4 yds to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 10 0.82 7.4% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 12

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.62 - 3.80 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.20)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 24 plays, 134 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.4%

Win Probability (After): 8.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:44 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at PSU 12) Joshua McCray run for 5 yds to the PnSt 7 - ILL 0, PSU 10 0.14 9.1% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 7

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.80 - 4.66 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.34)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 25 plays, 139 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.1%

Win Probability (After): 7.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:00 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 5 at PSU 7) Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the PnSt 4 - ILL 0, PSU 10 -0.08 8.5% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 4

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.80 - 4.88 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.12)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 26 plays, 142 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.5%

Win Probability (After): 8.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:33 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 2 at PSU 4) Artur Sitkowski run for 3 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 10 1.31 7.9% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 1

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.25 - 4.94 = 1.31

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.06)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-3.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 27 plays, 145 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.9%

Win Probability (After): 8.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:59 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 2 at PSU 4) Artur Sitkowski run for 3 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST down - ILL 0, PSU 10 0.44 8.0% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 1

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.37 - 4.93 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.07)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-4.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 28 plays, 148 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.0%

Win Probability (After): 8.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:59 ESPN team id 356 (1st & Goal at PSU 1) Timeout ILLINOIS, clock 02:59 - ILL 0, PSU 10 0.00 8.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 1

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.37 - 5.37 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-4.63)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-4.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 28 plays, 148 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.4%

Win Probability (After): 8.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:52 ESPN team id 213 (Kickoff at PSU 35) James McCourt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ILL 0, PSU 10 0.01 96.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 1.12 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.12)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 0, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:52 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 25) John Lovett run for 18 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.71 96.7% -6.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 57

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 1.12 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.12)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 89.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:52 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 43) John Lovett run for 2 yds to the PnSt 45 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.39 89.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 55

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.45 - 1.83 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.83)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.8%

Win Probability (After): 89.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:52 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 8 at PSU 45) PENN ST Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SCRUGGS, Juice ( Yards) declined - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.19 89.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 1.45 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.45)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.5%

Win Probability (After): 89.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:44 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 25) John Lovett run for 18 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.76 88.9% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 57

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 1.07 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.07)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.9%

Win Probability (After): 89.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:26 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 43) John Lovett run for 2 yds to the PnSt 45 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.45 89.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 55

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.41 - 1.86 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.86)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.6%

Win Probability (After): 89.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:20 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 8 at PSU 45) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.57 89.4% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.94 - 1.51 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.51)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.4%

Win Probability (After): 88.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:57 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 8 at PSU 45) Sean Clifford sacked by Khalan Tolson for 0 yards to the PnSt 39 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -1.13 88.8% -1.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 61

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.14 - 0.98 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.98)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.8%

Win Probability (After): 87.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:57 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 14 at PSU 39) Timeout ILLINOIS, clock 01:57 - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.00 87.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.14 - -0.14 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.86)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.0%

Win Probability (After): 87.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:46 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 14 at PSU 39) Jordan Stout punt for 55 yds, downed at the Illin 6 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.07 87.2% 3.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 94

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.26 - -0.19 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.81)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.74)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.2%

Win Probability (After): 91.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:46 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 6) Chase Brown run for 17 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.69 9.5% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 77

Started Drive at: ILL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - 0.12 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.88)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.5%

Win Probability (After): 10.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:46 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 23) Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 8 yds to the Illin 31 - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.20 10.4% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 69

Started Drive at: ILL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 0.80 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.20)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.4%

Win Probability (After): 10.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:46 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 2 at ILL 31) Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 4 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.26 10.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 65

Started Drive at: ILL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.27 - 1.01 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.99)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.8%

Win Probability (After): 10.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:38 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 6) Chase Brown run for 17 yds to the Illin 23 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.75 9.3% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 77

Started Drive at: ILL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - 0.05 = 0.75

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.95)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.3%

Win Probability (After): 10.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:20 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 23) Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 8 yds to the Illin 31 - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.40 10.0% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 69

Started Drive at: ILL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.98 - 0.58 = 0.40

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.42)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.0%

Win Probability (After): 10.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:00 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 2 at ILL 31) Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 4 yds to the Illin 35 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.23 11.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 65

Started Drive at: ILL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 0.85 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.15)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.4%

Win Probability (After): 10.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:53 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 35) Artur Sitkowski sacked by Jesse Luketa for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 31 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.41 14.1% -3.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 69

Started Drive at: ILL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 0.84 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.16)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.1%

Win Probability (After): 10.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:52 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 35) Artur Sitkowski sacked by Jesse Luketa and Arnold Ebiketie for 0 yards to the Illin 31 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.45 13.3% -0.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 69

Started Drive at: ILL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.39 - 0.84 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.16)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.3%

Win Probability (After): 12.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:52 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 14 at ILL 31) Timeout PENN ST, clock 00:52 - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.00 12.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: ILL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.39 - 0.39 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.61)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.2%

Win Probability (After): 12.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:52 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 14 at ILL 31) Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.16 11.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: ILL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - 0.40 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.60)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.6%

Win Probability (After): 11.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:52 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 14 at ILL 31) Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.60 11.2% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: ILL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.36 - 0.24 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.76)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.2%

Win Probability (After): 9.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:48 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 14 at ILL 31) Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro III - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.12 11.7% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: ILL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - 0.36 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.64)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.7%

Win Probability (After): 11.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:40 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 14 at ILL 31) Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.55 11.2% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: ILL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.38 - 0.17 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.83)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.2%

Win Probability (After): 9.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:33 ESPN team id 356 (4th & 14 at ILL 31) Blake Hayes punt for 37 yds - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.58 10.4% 0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 68

Started Drive at: ILL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.62 - -0.04 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.04)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.62)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.4%

Win Probability (After): 11.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:33 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 32) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.06 89.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 68

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.57 - 0.63 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.63)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.2%

Win Probability (After): 89.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:33 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 10 at PSU 32) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.13 89.2% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 68

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - 0.57 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.57)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.2%

Win Probability (After): 88.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:30 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 32) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.08 89.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 68

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.57 - 0.50 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.50)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.2%

Win Probability (After): 89.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:24 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 10 at PSU 32) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.03 89.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 68

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.37 - 0.34 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.34)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.1%

Win Probability (After): 88.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:14 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 10 at PSU 32) John Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 30 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.15 87.9% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 70

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 0.16 = -0.15

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.16)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.9%

Win Probability (After): 87.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:13 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 10 at PSU 32) John Lovett run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 30 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.14 87.9% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 70

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.00 - 0.14 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.14)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.9%

Win Probability (After): 86.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:13 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 12 at PSU 30) Timeout ILLINOIS, clock 00:13 - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.00 86.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.00 - 0.00 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.00)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.0%

Win Probability (After): 86.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:05 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 12 at PSU 30) Jordan Stout punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 17 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.05 86.1% 1.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 83

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - -0.01 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.99)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.94)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.1%

Win Probability (After): 87.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:01 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 17) Joshua McCray run for 6 yds to the Illin 23 - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.04 12.3% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 77

Started Drive at: ILL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 0.01 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.99)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.3%

Win Probability (After): 12.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 17) Joshua McCray run for 6 yds to the Illin 23 - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.00 12.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 99

Started Drive at: ILL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 0.00 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.00)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.2%

Win Probability (After): 12.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 213 (Kickoff at PSU 35) James McCourt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.00 89.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.32 - 1.32 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.32)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.9%

Win Probability (After): 89.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 10 at PSU 25) Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.46 89.6% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.26 - 0.72 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.72)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.6%

Win Probability (After): 89.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 6 at PSU 29) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 6 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 1.94 89.1% 1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 65

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.20 - 0.26 = 1.94

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.26)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.1%

Win Probability (After): 90.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 35) Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.79 90.8% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 50

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 2.20 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.20)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.8%

Win Probability (After): 91.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at 50) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.64 91.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 2.99 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.99)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.5%

Win Probability (After): 91.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 10 at 50) CLIFFORD, Sean pass to the left incomplete thrown to the ILL40. PENALTY PSU Holding on MIRANDA, Mike declined PSU Holding on CAIN, Noah enforced 10 yards from the PSU50 to the PSU40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.39 91.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.96 - 2.35 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.35)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.0%

Win Probability (After): 90.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 20 at PSU 40) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -1.00 89.9% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.33 - 1.33 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.33)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.9%

Win Probability (After): 89.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 20 at PSU 40) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -1.12 89.0% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.79 - 0.33 = -1.12

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.33)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.0%

Win Probability (After): 87.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:54 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 25) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.68 90.9% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.72 - 1.40 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.40)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.9%

Win Probability (After): 89.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:44 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 10 at PSU 25) Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.48 90.6% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.83 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.83)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:20 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 6 at PSU 29) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 6 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 1.94 90.2% 1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 65

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.30 - 0.36 = 1.94

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.36)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.2%

Win Probability (After): 91.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:55 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 35) Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.75 91.2% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 50

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.06 - 2.30 = 0.75

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.30)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.2%

Win Probability (After): 92.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:34 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at 50) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.62 91.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.42 - 3.04 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.04)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.6%

Win Probability (After): 91.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:28 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 10 at 50) PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the PnSt 40 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -1.01 91.1% -1.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 60

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.40 - 2.41 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.41)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.1%

Win Probability (After): 89.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:19 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 20 at PSU 40) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -1.00 89.5% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.40 - 1.40 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.40)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.5%

Win Probability (After): 88.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:14 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 20 at PSU 40) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan Dotson - ILL 7, PSU 10 -1.02 88.5% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.62 - 0.40 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.40)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.5%

Win Probability (After): 87.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:00 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 20 at PSU 40) Jordan Stout punt for 48 yds, downed at the Illin 12 - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.62 87.9% 0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 88

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - -0.60 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.40)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.02)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.9%

Win Probability (After): 88.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 13:00 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 12) Joshua McCray run for 5 yds to the Illin 17 - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.08 12.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 83

Started Drive at: ILL 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.09 - 0.01 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.99)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.3%

Win Probability (After): 12.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:00 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 5 at ILL 17) Joshua McCray run for 22 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 1.68 12.2% 2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 61

Started Drive at: ILL 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.77 - 0.09 = 1.68

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.91)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.2%

Win Probability (After): 14.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:00 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 39) Joshua McCray run for no gain to the Illin 39 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.64 14.6% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: ILL 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 1.77 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.23)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.6%

Win Probability (After): 13.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:00 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 10 at ILL 39) Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 6 yds to the Illin 45 - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.06 13.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 55

Started Drive at: ILL 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.18 - 1.12 = 0.06

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.88)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.8%

Win Probability (After): 13.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:54 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 12) Joshua McCray run for 5 yds to the Illin 17 - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.08 12.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 83

Started Drive at: ILL 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.09 - 0.00 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.00)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.1%

Win Probability (After): 12.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:22 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 5 at ILL 17) Joshua McCray run for 22 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 1.71 12.2% 2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 61

Started Drive at: ILL 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.76 - 0.05 = 1.71

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.95)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.2%

Win Probability (After): 14.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:52 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 39) Joshua McCray run for no gain to the Illin 39 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.56 14.3% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: ILL 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.11 - 1.67 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.33)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.3%

Win Probability (After): 13.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:11 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 10 at ILL 39) Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 6 yds to the Illin 45 - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.02 14.2% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 55

Started Drive at: ILL 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.09 - 1.07 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.93)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.2%

Win Probability (After): 13.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:02 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 4 at ILL 45) Artur Sitkowski sacked for 0 yards to the Illin 22 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -5.80 14.2% -6.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 22

Started Drive at: ILL 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.66 - 1.14 = -5.80

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.86)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.66)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.2%

Win Probability (After): 8.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:02 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ILL 22) Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the Illin 19 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.32 92.0% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 19

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.35 - 4.67 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.67)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.0%

Win Probability (After): 91.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:02 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 7 at ILL 19) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 22 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.99 91.8% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 22

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.36 - 4.35 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.35)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.8%

Win Probability (After): 90.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:02 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 10 at ILL 22) PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mike Miranda) declined - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.40 90.4% 1.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.76 - 3.36 = 0.40

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.36)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.4%

Win Probability (After): 91.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:45 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ILL 22) Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the Illin 19 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.33 91.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 19

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.35 - 4.68 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.68)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.8%

Win Probability (After): 91.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:10 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 7 at ILL 19) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 22 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.98 91.7% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 22

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.38 - 4.36 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.36)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.7%

Win Probability (After): 90.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:24 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 10 at ILL 22) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.99 90.7% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.38 - 3.37 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.37)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.7%

Win Probability (After): 88.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:19 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 10 at ILL 22) Jordan Stout 40 yd FG MISSED - ILL 7, PSU 10 -3.01 89.6% -4.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 78

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.67 - 2.34 = -3.01

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.34)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.33)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.6%

Win Probability (After): 85.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:19 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 22) Joshua McCray run for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 1.99 14.9% 3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 50

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.64 - 0.65 = 1.99

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.35)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.9%

Win Probability (After): 17.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:19 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at 50) Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the PnSt 49 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.44 17.9% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 49

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.20 - 2.64 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.36)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.9%

Win Probability (After): 17.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:19 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 9 at PSU 49) Joshua McCray run for no gain to the PnSt 49 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.96 17.2% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.24 - 2.20 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.80)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.2%

Win Probability (After): 15.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:19 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 9 at PSU 49) SITKOWSKI, Artur pass to the right incomplete intended for WASHINGTON, Casey thrown to the PSU38. PENALTY PSU Pass Interference on PORTER JR., Joey enforced 15 yards to the PSU34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - ILL 7, PSU 10 2.48 15.4% 5.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 34

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.72 - 1.24 = 2.48

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.76)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.4%

Win Probability (After): 20.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:19 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at PSU 34) Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the PnSt 32 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.37 20.4% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 32

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.36 - 3.72 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.72)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.4%

Win Probability (After): 19.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:19 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 8 at PSU 32) Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.91 19.7% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 32

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.45 - 3.36 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.36)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.7%

Win Probability (After): 17.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:19 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 8 at PSU 32) Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -1.49 17.2% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 32

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 2.45 = -1.49

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.55)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.2%

Win Probability (After): 14.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:12 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 22) Joshua McCray run for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 2.03 15.1% 2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 50

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.64 - 0.60 = 2.03

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.40)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.1%

Win Probability (After): 17.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:40 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at 50) Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the PnSt 49 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.37 18.3% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 49

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 2.54 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.46)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.3%

Win Probability (After): 17.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:58 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 9 at PSU 49) Joshua McCray run for no gain to the PnSt 49 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.99 17.4% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 2.11 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.89)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.4%

Win Probability (After): 15.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:33 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 9 at PSU 49) Sitkowski, Artur pass incomplete, PENALTY PENNST pass interference 15 yards to the PENNST34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS. - ILL 7, PSU 10 2.51 15.4% 5.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 34

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.65 - 1.14 = 2.51

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.86)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.4%

Win Probability (After): 20.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:27 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at PSU 34) Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the PnSt 32 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.37 20.9% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 32

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.27 - 3.63 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.63)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.9%

Win Probability (After): 20.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:51 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 8 at PSU 32) Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Luke Ford - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.96 20.0% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 32

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.34 - 3.30 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.30)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.0%

Win Probability (After): 17.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:45 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 8 at PSU 32) Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Casey Washington - ILL 7, PSU 10 -1.51 17.3% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 32

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.89 - 2.41 = -1.51

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.59)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.3%

Win Probability (After): 14.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:40 ESPN team id 356 (4th & 8 at PSU 32) James McCourt 50 yd FG MISSED - ILL 7, PSU 10 -2.90 14.9% -2.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 68

Started Drive at: ILL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.00 - 0.90 = -2.90

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.10)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.9%

Win Probability (After): 12.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:40 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 32) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.72 87.0% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 68

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.28 - 2.00 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.00)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.0%

Win Probability (After): 86.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:40 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 10 at PSU 32) Sean Clifford pass complete to John Lovett for 2 yds to the PnSt 34 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.66 86.5% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 66

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.62 - 1.28 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.28)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.5%

Win Probability (After): 85.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:40 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 8 at PSU 34) ILLINOIS Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Devon Witherspoon) to the Illin 41 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 2.95 85.2% 4.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 41

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.58 - 0.62 = 2.95

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.62)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.2%

Win Probability (After): 89.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:40 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ILL 41) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.61 89.5% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.97 - 3.58 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.58)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.5%

Win Probability (After): 88.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:40 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 10 at ILL 41) Sean Clifford pass complete to John Lovett for no gain to the Illin 41 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.91 88.6% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.05 - 2.97 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.97)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.6%

Win Probability (After): 86.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:40 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 10 at ILL 41) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -1.87 86.9% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - 2.05 = -1.87

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.05)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.9%

Win Probability (After): 84.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:34 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 32) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.71 86.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 68

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.28 - 2.00 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.00)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.8%

Win Probability (After): 86.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:26 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 10 at PSU 32) Sean Clifford pass complete to John Lovett for 2 yds to the PnSt 34 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.66 86.3% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 66

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.62 - 1.28 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.28)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.3%

Win Probability (After): 85.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:16 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 8 at PSU 34) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 10 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Illin 41 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 2.95 85.3% 4.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 41

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.57 - 0.60 = 2.95

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.62)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.3%

Win Probability (After): 89.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:30 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ILL 41) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.63 90.4% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.95 - 3.58 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.58)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.4%

Win Probability (After): 88.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:00 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 10 at ILL 41) Sean Clifford pass complete to John Lovett for no gain to the Illin 41 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.90 88.4% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.06 - 2.96 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.96)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.4%

Win Probability (After): 86.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:31 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 10 at ILL 41) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -1.91 86.8% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - 2.10 = -1.91

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.10)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.8%

Win Probability (After): 83.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:22 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 10 at ILL 41) Jordan Stout punt for 30 yds, downed at the Illin 11 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.25 83.8% -0.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 89

Started Drive at: PSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 0.22 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.22)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.97)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.8%

Win Probability (After): 83.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 4:22 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 11) Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 15 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.13 16.8% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 85

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - 0.03 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.97)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.8%

Win Probability (After): 16.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:22 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 6 at ILL 15) Chase Brown run for 17 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 1.53 16.3% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 68

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.44 - -0.10 = 1.53

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.10)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.3%

Win Probability (After): 19.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:22 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 32) Chase Brown run for 8 yds to the Illin 40 - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.60 19.0% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 60

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 1.44 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.56)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.0%

Win Probability (After): 20.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:22 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 2 at ILL 40) Artur Sitkowski run for 2 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.03 20.9% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 58

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 2.03 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.97)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.9%

Win Probability (After): 20.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:22 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 42) Joshua McCray run for 16 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 1.11 20.6% 2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 42

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 2.00 = 1.11

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.00)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.6%

Win Probability (After): 22.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:22 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at PSU 42) Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the PnSt 36 - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.34 22.9% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 36

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 3.11 = 0.34

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.11)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.9%

Win Probability (After): 24.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:22 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 4 at PSU 36) Chase Brown run for 10 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.72 24.3% 2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 26

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.16 - 3.45 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.45)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.3%

Win Probability (After): 26.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:14 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 11) Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 15 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.12 16.8% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 85

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - 0.03 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.97)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.8%

Win Probability (After): 16.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:33 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 6 at ILL 15) Chase Brown run for 17 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 1.53 16.5% 2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 68

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.43 - -0.10 = 1.53

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.10)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.5%

Win Probability (After): 19.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:59 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 32) Chase Brown run for 8 yds to the Illin 40 - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.60 19.6% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 60

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - 1.42 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.58)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 92 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.6%

Win Probability (After): 20.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:22 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 2 at ILL 40) Artur Sitkowski run for 2 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.05 22.2% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 58

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.98 - 2.02 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.98)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 94 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.2%

Win Probability (After): 21.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:48 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 42) Joshua McCray run for 16 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 1.10 23.0% 2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 42

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.10 - 2.01 = 1.10

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.99)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 110 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.0%

Win Probability (After): 25.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:30 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at PSU 42) Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the PnSt 36 - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.29 26.9% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 36

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.43 - 3.14 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.14)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 116 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 28.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:31 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 4 at PSU 36) Chase Brown run for 10 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.72 28.5% 2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 26

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.18 - 3.46 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.46)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 126 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.5%

Win Probability (After): 30.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:01 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at PSU 26) Joshua McCray run for 5 yds to the PnSt 21 - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.26 30.8% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 21

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.41 - 4.15 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.15)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 131 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.8%

Win Probability (After): 32.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at PSU 26) Joshua McCray run for 5 yds to the PnSt 21 - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.23 30.8% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 21

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.37 - 4.14 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.14)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 136 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.8%

Win Probability (After): 32.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 5 at PSU 21) Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the PnSt 18 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.29 31.5% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 18

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 4.37 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.37)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 17 plays, 139 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.5%

Win Probability (After): 30.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 2 at PSU 18) Artur Sitkowski run for 3 yds to the PnSt 15 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.80 30.6% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 15

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.88 - 4.08 = 0.80

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 18 plays, 142 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.6%

Win Probability (After): 32.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at PSU 15) Joshua McCray run for 1 yd to the PnSt 14 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.58 32.6% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 14

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.30 - 4.88 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.88)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 19 plays, 143 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.6%

Win Probability (After): 31.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:55 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 5 at PSU 21) Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the PnSt 18 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.31 27.6% 3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 18

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 4.38 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.38)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 20 plays, 146 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.6%

Win Probability (After): 30.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:14 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 2 at PSU 18) Artur Sitkowski run for 3 yds to the PnSt 15 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.84 29.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 15

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.89 - 4.05 = 0.84

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.05)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 21 plays, 149 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.1%

Win Probability (After): 28.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:38 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at PSU 15) Joshua McCray run for 1 yd to the PnSt 14 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.63 32.9% -3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 14

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.26 - 4.89 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.89)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 22 plays, 150 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.9%

Win Probability (After): 29.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:12 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 9 at PSU 14) SITKOWSKI, Artur pass to the left complete for 14 yards to BARKER, Daniel caught at the PSU12 and advanced to the PSU0, TOUCHDOWN ILL, score nullified by penalty (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY ILL Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on PIHLSTROM, Alex declined ILL Pass Interference on SANDY, Carlos enforced 15 yards to the PSU29. NO PLAY (replay the down). - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.38 31.2% -0.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.94 - 4.32 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.32)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 22 plays, 150 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.2%

Win Probability (After): 30.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:12 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 24 at PSU 29) Chase Brown run for no gain to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Arnold Ebiketie) to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.94 28.3% 4.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 14

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.89 - 2.71 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.94)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 23 plays, 165 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.3%

Win Probability (After): 33.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:12 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at PSU 14) BROWN, Chase rush to the left for a gain of 14 yards to the PSU0, TOUCHDOWN ILL, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY ILL Holding on PALCZEWSKI, Alex enforced 10 yards from the PSU14 to the PSU24. NO PLAY (replay the down). - ILL 7, PSU 10 -1.16 33.0% -3.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 24

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.73 - 4.89 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.89)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 23 plays, 165 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.0%

Win Probability (After): 29.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:12 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 20 at PSU 24) Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.64 29.1% -2.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.09 - 3.73 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.73)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 24 plays, 165 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.1%

Win Probability (After): 26.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:05 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 24 at PSU 29) Chase Brown run for no gain to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST down - ILL 7, PSU 10 1.80 25.8% 7.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 14

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.89 - 2.72 = 1.80

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.09)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 25 plays, 180 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.8%

Win Probability (After): 33.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:50 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at PSU 14) ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the PnSt 24 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -1.16 33.3% -4.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 24

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.74 - 4.90 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.90)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 25 plays, 180 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.3%

Win Probability (After): 29.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:44 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 20 at PSU 24) Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Daniel Barker - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.62 29.1% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.09 - 3.71 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.71)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 26 plays, 180 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.1%

Win Probability (After): 26.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:31 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 20 at PSU 24) Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the PnSt 19 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.30 25.6% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 19

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.75 - 3.05 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.05)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 27 plays, 185 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.6%

Win Probability (After): 23.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 20 at PSU 24) Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the PnSt 19 - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.42 30.3% -7.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 19

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.71 - 3.13 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.13)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 28 plays, 190 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.3%

Win Probability (After): 23.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 15 at PSU 19) Timeout ILLINOIS, clock 12:00 - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.00 26.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.71 - 2.71 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.29)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 28 plays, 190 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.8%

Win Probability (After): 26.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 15 at PSU 19) Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.66 25.0% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.09 - 2.75 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.25)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 29 plays, 190 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.0%

Win Probability (After): 22.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:54 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 15 at PSU 19) Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete - ILL 7, PSU 10 -0.65 24.5% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: ILL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.09 - 2.74 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.26)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 30 plays, 190 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.5%

Win Probability (After): 22.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:49 ESPN team id 213 (Kickoff at PSU 35) James McCourt kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - ILL 7, PSU 10 0.01 89.2% -0.5%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.52 - 1.51 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.51)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.2%

Win Probability (After): 88.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:49 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 25) John Lovett run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.78 89.2% -11.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.73 - 1.51 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.51)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.2%

Win Probability (After): 77.5%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:49 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 8 at PSU 27) Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 5 yds to the PnSt 32 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.02 77.5% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 68

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.71 - 0.73 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.73)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.5%

Win Probability (After): 76.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:49 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 3 at PSU 32) Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 9 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST down - ILL 10, PSU 10 1.69 76.9% 5.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 59

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 0.71 = 1.69

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.71)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.9%

Win Probability (After): 82.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:49 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 41) John Lovett run for 1 yd to the PnSt 42 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.56 82.0% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 58

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.84 - 2.40 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.40)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.0%

Win Probability (After): 79.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:49 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 9 at PSU 42) Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 39 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -1.50 79.6% -5.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 61

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.34 - 1.84 = -1.50

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.84)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.6%

Win Probability (After): 74.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:49 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 12 at PSU 39) Sean Clifford sacked by Devon Witherspoon for 0 yards to the PnSt 28 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -2.10 74.2% -8.8%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 72

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.76 - 0.34 = -2.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.2%

Win Probability (After): 65.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:44 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 25) John Lovett run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.46 79.1% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.73 - 1.19 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.1%

Win Probability (After): 77.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:11 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 8 at PSU 27) Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 5 yds to the PnSt 32 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.04 78.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 68

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.67 - 0.71 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.71)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.2%

Win Probability (After): 77.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 10:44 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 3 at PSU 32) Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 9 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST down - ILL 10, PSU 10 1.69 76.3% 6.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 59

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.36 - 0.67 = 1.69

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.67)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.3%

Win Probability (After): 82.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 10:20 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 41) John Lovett run for 1 yd to the PnSt 42 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.58 81.8% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 58

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 2.40 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.40)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.8%

Win Probability (After): 79.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:49 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 9 at PSU 42) Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 39 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -1.38 78.0% -3.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 61

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 1.76 = -1.38

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.76)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.0%

Win Probability (After): 74.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:48 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 12 at PSU 39) Sean Clifford sacked by Devon Witherspoon for a loss of 11 yards to the PnSt 28 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -1.85 66.5% -6.8%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 72

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.75 - 0.10 = -1.85

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.5%

Win Probability (After): 59.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:16 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 23 at PSU 28) Jordan Stout punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 27 - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.26 56.8% 8.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 73

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.42 - -1.68 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.68)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.42)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.8%

Win Probability (After): 65.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 8:16 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 27) Joshua McCray run for 4 yds to the Illin 31 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.27 34.7% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 69

Started Drive at: ILL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.17 - 1.44 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.44)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.7%

Win Probability (After): 33.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:16 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 6 at ILL 31) Joshua McCray run for 5 yds to the Illin 36 - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.25 33.6% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 64

Started Drive at: ILL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.42 - 1.17 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.6%

Win Probability (After): 35.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:16 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 1 at ILL 36) Joshua McCray run for 3 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST down - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.70 35.5% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 61

Started Drive at: ILL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.12 - 1.42 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.42)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.5%

Win Probability (After): 38.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:16 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 39) Joshua McCray run for 2 yds to the Illin 41 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.49 38.0% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 59

Started Drive at: ILL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.63 - 2.12 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.12)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.0%

Win Probability (After): 35.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:16 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 8 at ILL 41) Chase Brown run for no gain to the Illin 41 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.83 35.7% -3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59

Started Drive at: ILL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - 1.63 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.7%

Win Probability (After): 32.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:16 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 8 at ILL 41) Artur Sitkowski sacked by Arnold Ebiketie for 0 yards to the Illin 39 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -1.61 32.1% -10.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 61

Started Drive at: ILL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.81 - 0.80 = -1.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.80)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.1%

Win Probability (After): 21.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:59 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 27) Joshua McCray run for 4 yds to the Illin 31 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.29 34.8% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 69

Started Drive at: ILL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.17 - 1.46 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.46)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.8%

Win Probability (After): 33.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:30 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 6 at ILL 31) Joshua McCray run for 5 yds to the Illin 36 - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.21 34.3% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 64

Started Drive at: ILL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.42 - 1.21 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.3%

Win Probability (After): 35.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:57 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 1 at ILL 36) Joshua McCray run for 3 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST down - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.63 37.1% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 61

Started Drive at: ILL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.14 - 1.51 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.51)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.1%

Win Probability (After): 38.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:28 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 39) Joshua McCray run for 2 yds to the Illin 41 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.44 39.7% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 59

Started Drive at: ILL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.78 - 2.22 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.22)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.7%

Win Probability (After): 38.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:45 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 8 at ILL 41) Chase Brown run for no gain to the Illin 41 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.53 43.3% -8.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59

Started Drive at: ILL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.93 - 1.46 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.46)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.3%

Win Probability (After): 34.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:08 ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 8 at ILL 41) Artur Sitkowski sacked by Arnold Ebiketie for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 39 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -2.05 41.8% -18.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 61

Started Drive at: ILL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.00 - 1.05 = -2.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.8%

Win Probability (After): 23.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:44 ESPN team id 356 (4th & 10 at ILL 39) Blake Hayes punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 15 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.07 23.5% 6.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 85

Started Drive at: ILL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.75 - -0.68 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.68)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.75)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.5%

Win Probability (After): 30.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:44 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 15) Noah Cain run for 6 yds to the PnSt 21 - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.30 70.2% 1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 79

Started Drive at: PSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 0.72 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.2%

Win Probability (After): 72.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:44 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 4 at PSU 21) Noah Cain run for 6 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST down - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.45 72.0% 3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 73

Started Drive at: PSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 1.02 = 0.45

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.0%

Win Probability (After): 75.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:24 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 15) Noah Cain run for 6 yds to the PnSt 21 - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.22 71.9% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 79

Started Drive at: PSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 0.80 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.80)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.9%

Win Probability (After): 72.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:04 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 4 at PSU 21) Noah Cain run for 6 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST down - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.58 71.9% 6.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 73

Started Drive at: PSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.55 - 0.98 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.9%

Win Probability (After): 78.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:37 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 27) Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 2 yds to the PnSt 29 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.44 77.8% -4.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 71

Started Drive at: PSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.88 - 1.32 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.32)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.8%

Win Probability (After): 73.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:01 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 27) Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 2 yds to the PnSt 29 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.76 77.9% -5.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 71

Started Drive at: PSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.74 - 1.51 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.51)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.9%

Win Probability (After): 72.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:01 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 8 at PSU 29) Timeout PENN ST, clock 03:01 - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.00 72.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: PSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.74 - 0.74 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.74)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.2%

Win Probability (After): 72.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:01 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 8 at PSU 29) Noah Cain run for 5 yds to the PnSt 34 - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.02 70.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 66

Started Drive at: PSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - 0.89 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.89)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.0%

Win Probability (After): 69.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:01 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 3 at PSU 34) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 4 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST down - ILL 10, PSU 10 1.22 69.4% 12.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 62

Started Drive at: PSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.13 - 0.91 = 1.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.91)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.4%

Win Probability (After): 82.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:01 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 38) Sean Clifford run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 36 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.99 82.2% -8.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 64

Started Drive at: PSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 2.13 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.2%

Win Probability (After): 74.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:01 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 12 at PSU 36) Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 39 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.10 74.2% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 61

Started Drive at: PSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.04 - 1.14 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.2%

Win Probability (After): 73.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:01 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 9 at PSU 39) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 10, PSU 10 -1.53 73.7% -25.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: PSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.49 - 1.04 = -1.53

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.04)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.7%

Win Probability (After): 48.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:48 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 8 at PSU 29) Noah Cain run for 5 yds to the PnSt 34 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.04 73.7% -4.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 66

Started Drive at: PSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - 0.95 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.7%

Win Probability (After): 69.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:12 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 3 at PSU 34) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 4 yds to the PnSt 38 for a 1ST down - ILL 10, PSU 10 1.10 73.2% 9.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 62

Started Drive at: PSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.16 - 1.06 = 1.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.2%

Win Probability (After): 82.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:00 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 38) Sean Clifford run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 36 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -1.01 82.9% -4.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 64

Started Drive at: PSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 2.27 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.27)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.9%

Win Probability (After): 78.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:27 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 12 at PSU 36) Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 39 - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.27 78.5% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 61

Started Drive at: PSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 0.93 = 0.27

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.93)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.5%

Win Probability (After): 79.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:43 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 9 at PSU 39) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker Washington - ILL 10, PSU 10 -1.14 81.6% -29.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: PSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 1.08 = -1.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.6%

Win Probability (After): 52.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:33 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 9 at PSU 39) Jordan Stout punt for 51 yds , returns for no gain to the Illin 8 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.59 70.7% -9.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 92

Started Drive at: PSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.18 - 0.42 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.42)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.18)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.7%

Win Probability (After): 61.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:33 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 8) Artur Sitkowski run for 6 yds to the Illin 14 - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.16 41.2% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 86

Started Drive at: ILL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - 0.30 = 0.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.30)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.2%

Win Probability (After): 40.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:27 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 8) Artur Sitkowski run for 6 yds to the Illin 14 - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.23 41.8% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 86

Started Drive at: ILL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - 0.23 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.23)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.8%

Win Probability (After): 40.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:20 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 4 at ILL 14) Chase Brown run for 10 yds to the Illin 24 for a 1ST down - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.36 38.1% 7.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 76

Started Drive at: ILL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - 0.22 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.22)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.1%

Win Probability (After): 45.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:19 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 4 at ILL 14) Chase Brown run for 10 yds to the Illin 24 for a 1ST down - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.14 38.1% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 76

Started Drive at: ILL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.21 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.1%

Win Probability (After): 40.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:19 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 24) Timeout ILLINOIS, clock 00:19 - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.00 40.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76

Started Drive at: ILL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.35 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.5%

Win Probability (After): 40.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:13 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 24) Chase Brown run for 18 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST down - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.74 34.3% 16.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 58

Started Drive at: ILL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.92 - 0.18 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.3%

Win Probability (After): 50.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:13 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 42) Timeout ILLINOIS, clock 00:13 - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.00 46.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: ILL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.92 - 0.92 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.92)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.9%

Win Probability (After): 46.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:13 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 42) Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.04 44.1% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: ILL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.69 - 0.65 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.65)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.1%

Win Probability (After): 45.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:08 ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at ILL 42) Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.09 42.6% 2.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: ILL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.69 - 0.59 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.59)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.6%

Win Probability (After): 45.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:01 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 10 at ILL 42) Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Jakari Norwood for 2 yds to the Illin 44 - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.37 49.7% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 56

Started Drive at: ILL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.68 - 0.31 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.31)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.7%

Win Probability (After): 47.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 10 at ILL 42) Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Jakari Norwood for 2 yds to the Illin 44 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.32 49.7% -40.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 99

Started Drive at: ILL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - 0.28 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.7%

Win Probability (After): 9.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

OT ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ILL 25) to Jahan Dotson for 1 yd to the Illin 24 - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.16 88.3% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 24

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.34 - 2.18 = 0.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.3%

Win Probability (After): 89.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

OT ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 9 at ILL 24) Noah Cain run for 7 yds to the Illin 17 - ILL 1, PSU 13 0.15 89.9% 9.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 17

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - 2.34 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 1, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 10 (1) Home Score: 10 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

OT ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 2 at ILL 17) Noah Cain run for no gain to the Illin 17 - ILL 1, PSU 13 0.23 99.4% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - 1.74 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): 12 (13.74)

Score Difference (End): 12 (13.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 1, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 1 (1) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

OT ESPN team id 213 (4th & 2 at ILL 16) Tyler Warren run for 2 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST down James McCourt 39 yd FG GOOD Tyler Warren run for 2 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST down James McCourt 39 yd FG GOOD Joshua McCray run for 1 yd to the PnSt 6 Tyler Warren run for 2 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST down James McCourt 39 yd FG GOOD Tyler Warren run for 2 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST down James McCourt 39 yd FG GOOD Joshua McCray run for 1 yd to the PnSt 6 Tyler Warren run for 2 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST down James McCourt 39 yd FG GOOD Tyler Warren run for 2 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST down James McCourt 39 yd FG GOOD Joshua McCray run for 1 yd to the PnSt 6 PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Jordan Stout) to the Illin 22 - ILL 1, PSU 13 -0.36 99.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 14

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.61 - 2.04 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 12 (13.97)

Score Difference (End): 12 (13.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 1, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 1 (1) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

OT ESPN team id 213 (4th & 2 at ILL 17) Timeout ILLINOIS, clock 00:00 - ILL 1, PSU 13 0.00 99.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.61 - 1.61 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 12 (13.61)

Score Difference (End): 12 (13.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 1, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 1 (1) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

OT ESPN team id 213 (0th & Goal at PSU 0) Timeout ILLINOIS, clock 00:00 - ILL 7, PSU 13 0.00 99.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 100 -> 99

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - 1.97 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 12 (13.97)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 7, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 1 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

8OT ESPN team id 213 (0th & Goal at PSU 0) Isaiah Williams Two-Point Conversion Pass from Brandon Peters - ILL 18, PSU 16 1.08 97.6% -83.5%

Play Type: Two Point Pass

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 100 -> 99

Started Drive at: PSU 0

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 0.92 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.92)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 18, PSU 16

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.6%

Win Probability (After): 14.1%

Away Score: 7 (18) Home Score: 13 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

8OT ESPN team id 213 (0th & Goal at PSU 0) Noah Cain Two-Point Conversion Rush - ILL 18, PSU 18 1.08 9.5% 40.9%

Play Type: Two Point Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 100 -> 99

Started Drive at: PSU 0

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 0.92 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 18, PSU 18

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.5%

Win Probability (After): 50.5%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 16 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

9OT ESPN team id 213 (0th & Goal at PSU 0) Casey Washington Two-Point Conversion Pass from Brandon Peters - ILL 20, PSU 18 1.08 82.1% 12.7%

Play Type: Two Point Pass

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 100 -> 99

Started Drive at: PSU 0

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 0.92 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.92)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: ILL 20, PSU 18

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.1%

Win Probability (After): 94.7%

Away Score: 18 (20) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

OT ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ILL 25) Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 3 yds to the Illin 22 - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.59 42.1% 48.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 22

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 1.80 = 0.59

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.20)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.1%

Win Probability (After): 90.8%

Away Score: 20 (10) Home Score: 18 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

OT ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 7 at ILL 22) Noah Cain run for 5 yds to the Illin 17 - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.10 90.8% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 17

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - 2.39 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.39)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.8%

Win Probability (After): 91.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

OT ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 2 at ILL 17) Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 1 yd to the Illin 16 - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.04 91.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 16

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.46 - 2.49 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.6%

Win Probability (After): 91.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

OT ESPN team id 213 (4th & 1 at ILL 16) Tyler Warren run for 2 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST down - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.05 91.5% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 14

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 2.46 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.46)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.5%

Win Probability (After): 89.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

OT ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ILL 14) Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 5 yds to the Illin 9 - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.36 89.8% 2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 9

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.76 - 2.40 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.40)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.8%

Win Probability (After): 91.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

OT ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 5 at ILL 9) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan Dotson - ILL 10, PSU 10 -0.04 91.9% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.72 - 2.76 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.76)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.9%

Win Probability (After): 91.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

OT ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 5 at ILL 9) Sean Clifford sacked by Kerby Joseph for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 13 - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.02 91.6% -1.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 13

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - 2.72 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

OT ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at PSU 25) Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the PnSt 19 - ILL 10, PSU 10 0.23 73.1% 6.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 19

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.41 - 2.18 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.1%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

OT ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 4 at PSU 19) Chase Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 21 - ILL 10, PSU 13 -0.51 79.3% -63.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 21

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.90 - 2.41 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.41)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.3%

Win Probability (After): 16.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

OT ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 6 at PSU 21) Casey Washington pass incomplete - ILL 10, PSU 13 0.24 16.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.14 - 1.90 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.10)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.2%

Win Probability (After): 15.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

2OT ESPN team id 356 (1st & 10 at PSU 25) Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the PnSt 24 - ILL 10, PSU 13 0.21 11.9% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 24

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.67 - 1.46 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.54)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 10, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.9%

Win Probability (After): 13.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

2OT ESPN team id 356 (2nd & 9 at PSU 24) Casey Washington pass complete to Daniel Barker for 6 yds to the PnSt 18 - ILL 13, PSU 13 0.83 13.1% 66.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 18

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.50 - 1.67 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.33)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 13, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.1%

Win Probability (After): 79.2%

Away Score: 10 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

2OT ESPN team id 356 (3rd & 3 at PSU 18) Joshua McCray run for 11 yds to the PnSt 7 for a 1ST down - ILL 13, PSU 13 0.37 79.2% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 7

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 2.50 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.50)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 13, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.2%

Win Probability (After): 78.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

2OT ESPN team id 356 (1st & Goal at PSU 7) Joshua McCray run for 1 yd to the PnSt 6 - ILL 13, PSU 13 0.07 78.4% 2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 6

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.93 - 2.87 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.87)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 13, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.4%

Win Probability (After): 80.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

2OT ESPN team id 356 (2nd & Goal at PSU 6) Joshua McCray run for 2 yds to the PnSt 4 - ILL 13, PSU 13 -0.06 80.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 4

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 2.93 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.93)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 13, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.6%

Win Probability (After): 80.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

2OT ESPN team id 356 (3rd & Goal at PSU 4) Casey Washington pass incomplete - ILL 13, PSU 13 -0.03 80.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.84 - 2.87 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.87)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 13, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.4%

Win Probability (After): 80.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

2OT ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ILL 25) Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 1 yd to the Illin 24 - ILL 13, PSU 13 0.16 88.3% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 24

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.34 - 2.18 = 0.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 13, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.3%

Win Probability (After): 89.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

2OT ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 9 at ILL 24) Noah Cain run for 7 yds to the Illin 17 - ILL 16, PSU 13 -0.41 89.9% -50.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 17

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 2.34 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.34)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 16, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.9%

Win Probability (After): 39.3%

Away Score: 13 (16) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

2OT ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 2 at ILL 17) Noah Cain run for no gain to the Illin 17 - ILL 16, PSU 13 0.13 39.3% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.06 - 1.93 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.07)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 16, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.3%

Win Probability (After): 37.2%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

2OT ESPN team id 213 (4th & 2 at ILL 17) Timeout ILLINOIS, clock 00:00 - ILL 16, PSU 13 0.00 37.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.06 - 2.06 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.94)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 16, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.2%

Win Probability (After): 37.2%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

2OT ESPN team id 213 (4th & 2 at ILL 17) PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 22 - ILL 16, PSU 13 0.06 37.2% -1.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 22

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.12 - 2.06 = 0.06

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.94)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 16, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.2%

Win Probability (After): 35.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

3OT ESPN team id 213 (1st & Goal at ILL 2) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - ILL 16, PSU 13 0.19 56.1% 28.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 2

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.13 - 2.94 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.06)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 16, PSU 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.1%

Win Probability (After): 84.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

3OT ESPN team id 356 (1st & Goal at PSU 2) Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete - ILL 16, PSU 16 0.71 92.5% -13.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 2

Started Drive at: ILL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.14 - 2.43 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.43)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: ILL 16, PSU 16

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 13 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2