Iowa 27 @ Iowa State 17

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 4.42 | Odds: ISU -4, O/U 45.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 2294 ESPN team id 66
Total Plays 7585
Total EPA -14.38-11.55
  Offensive EPA -17.88-6.24
  Special Teams EPA 2.60-4.82
  Penalty EPA 0.91.89
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 0.00-2.38
Production ESPN team id 2294 ESPN team id 66
Scrimmage Plays 6070
  Yards 173407
  Yards/Play 2.885.81
  EPA -17.88-6.24
  EPA/Play -0.30-0.09
Passes 25 (42%)45 (64%)
  Yards 106252
  Yards/Play 4.245.60
  EPA -10.02-9.34
  EPA/Play -0.40-0.21
Rushes 35 (58%)25 (36%)
  Yards 9897
  Yards/Play 2.803.88
  EPA -7.863.10
  EPA/Play -0.220.12
Rushing ESPN team id 2294 ESPN team id 66
Scrimmage Plays 6070
Rushes 35 (58%)25 (36%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 1 (3%)0 (0%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 1 (100%)0 (0%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 8 (23%)5 (20%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 16 (46%)10 (40%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 14 (40%)11 (44%)
OL Line Yards 59.545.5
  Per Carry 1.701.82
Highlight Yards 36.550.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 2.614.59
Explosiveness ESPN team id 2294 ESPN team id 66
Total Plays 7585
Scrimmage Plays 6070
Explosive Plays 2 (3%)4 (6%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 2 (8%)2 (4%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 0 (0%)2 (8%)
Situational ESPN team id 2294 ESPN team id 66
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 20 (33%)31 (44%)
  When Passing 8 (32%)19 (42%)
  When Rushing 12 (34%)12 (48%)
  On Standard Downs 14 (33%)23 (51%)
  On Passing Downs 6 (33%)8 (32%)
  On Early Downs 16 (36%)27 (47%)
  On Late Downs 4 (27%)4 (31%)
  During "Middle 8" 5 (56%)8 (62%)
Early Downs 4557
  First Downs Created 5 (11%)14 (25%)
  EPA -4.18-3.34
  EPA/Play -0.09-0.06
  Passes 15 (33%)33 (58%)
  Rushes 30 (67%)24 (42%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 6 (40%)16 (48%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 10 (33%)11 (46%)
"Middle 8" Plays 913
  EPA 3.816.57
  EPA/play 0.420.51
  Passes 3 (33%)10 (77%)
  Rushes 6 (67%)3 (23%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 2 (67%)6 (60%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 3 (50%)2 (67%)
Drives ESPN team id 2294 ESPN team id 66
Total 1415
Avg Starting Field Position Own 43Opp 23
Plays/Drive 5.706.33
Yards/Drive 23.0735.41
Available Yards % 40%152%
Defensive ESPN team id 2294 ESPN team id 66
Scrimmage Plays 7060
Stop Rate 46%48%
Havoc Plays Created 8 (11%)10 (17%)
  Passing 5 (11%)4 (16%)
  Rushing 3 (12%)6 (17%)
TFLs Generated 94
  Passing 24
  Rushing 26
Sacks Generated 2 (4%)4 (16%)
Passes Defensed 17
Interceptions 30
Fumbles Forced 10
Turnovers ESPN team id 2294 ESPN team id 66
Turnovers 04
  Fumbles 01
  Fumbles Lost 01
  Fumbles Recovered 00
  Interceptions 03
Turnover Margin 4-4
Expected Turnovers 2.01.4
Expected Turnover Margin -0.70.7
Turnover Luck (pts) 23.3-23.3
Special Teams ESPN team id 2294 ESPN team id 66
Total Plays 15 15
Total EPA 2.6 -4.82
  Field Goal EPA -1.36 -3.46
  Punting EPA 4.01 -1.36
  Kickoff Return EPA -0.06 0
Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Spencer Petras 11/21, 106 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 4 Scks, 39.6 xQBR 4.24 -0.40 -10.02 32% -9.0%
Rush attempts
Monte Pottebaum 2 carries, 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 0.20 0.40 100% 1.0%
TEAM 1 carry, -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.00 0.24 0.24 100% 3.0%
Spencer Petras 3 carries, 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.67 -0.34 -1.01 33% -9.0%
Ivory Kelly-Martin 8 carries, 28 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.50 -0.24 -1.90 25% -3.0%
Tyler Goodson 21 carries, 55 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.62 -0.27 -5.59 29% -11.0%
Pass targets
Charlie Jones 2 catches (3 targets), 36 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 18.00 1.31 3.92 67% 6.0%
Luke Lachey 1 catch (1 target), 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 17.00 1.10 1.10 100% 4.0%
Jackson Ritter 1 catch (1 target), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 0.86 0.86 100% 6.0%
Tyler Goodson 2 catches (3 targets), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.50 0.19 0.56 33% 1.0%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. 2 catches (3 targets), 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 -0.01 -0.03 67% 0.0%
Ivory Kelly-Martin 1 catch (1 target), 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.66 -0.66 0% -2.0%
Nico Ragaini 1 catch (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.87 -0.87 0% -3.0%
Sam LaPorta 1 catch (5 targets), 21 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 21.00 -0.77 -3.86 20% -1.0%

Iowa State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Hunter Dekkers 11/16, 114 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 78.7 xQBR 7.12 0.44 7.09 56% 7.0%
Brock Purdy 13/27, 138 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT, 2 Scks, 17.5 xQBR 4.76 -0.57 -16.43 34% -20.0%
Rush attempts
Breece Hall 16 carries, 69 yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 4.31 0.32 5.11 56% -11.0%
Jirehl Brock 3 carries, 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.06 0.17 33% 0.0%
Eli Sanders 2 carries, 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.46 -0.93 50% 0.0%
Brock Purdy 4 carries, 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.75 -0.32 -1.26 25% 2.0%
Pass targets
Darren Wilson Jr. 2 catches (2 targets), 56 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 28.00 2.44 4.87 100% 11.0%
Tarique Milton 2 catches (2 targets), 22 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.00 1.62 3.24 100% 4.0%
Eli Sanders 3 catches (3 targets), 41 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.67 1.04 3.11 100% 3.0%
Charlie Kolar 4 catches (5 targets), 34 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.50 0.45 2.27 60% 6.0%
Daniel Jackson 1 catch (1 target), 23 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 23.00 1.96 1.96 100% 0.0%
Jaylin Noel 2 catches (3 targets), 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.50 0.56 1.68 67% -1.0%
Jared Rus 1 catch (1 target), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 0.86 0.86 100% 2.0%
Chase Allen 1 catch (1 target), 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 0.37 0.37 100% 1.0%
Xavier Hutchinson 3 catches (5 targets), 22 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.33 0.01 0.05 40% 3.0%
Breece Hall 4 catches (4 targets), 24 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 -0.01 -0.04 50% 1.0%
Jirehl Brock 1 catch (1 target), 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.86 -0.86 0% 0.0%
Joe Scates 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.90 -0.90 0% -3.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q3 0:45 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 8 at IOWA 46) Brock Purdy pass intercepted Matt Hankins return for 41 yds to the IowSt 22 - IOWA 24, ISU 10 -6.44 11.6% -5.8%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 22

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -5.05 - 1.39 = -6.44

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.61)

Score Difference (End): 14 (19.05)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 24, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.6%

Win Probability (After): 5.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:12 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 8 at ISU 47) Brock Purdy pass complete to Darren Wilson Jr. for 49 yds to the Iowa 4 for a 1ST down - IOWA 14, ISU 3 4.86 22.7% 12.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 4

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.40 - 0.54 = 4.86

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.46)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-5.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.7%

Win Probability (After): 35.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 4:23 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 9 at ISU 26) Brock Purdy pass intercepted Seth Benson return for 6 yds to the IowSt 25 - IOWA 21, ISU 10 -4.15 17.9% -5.7%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 25

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.73 - -0.58 = -4.15

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.58)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.73)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 21, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.9%

Win Probability (After): 12.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:01 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 10 at ISU 26) Spencer Petras pass complete to Charlie Jones for 26 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK) - IOWA 14, ISU 3 3.98 71.3% 8.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99

Started Drive at: IOWA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.02 = 3.98

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.02)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.3%

Win Probability (After): 79.5%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:31 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at IOWA 28) Andrew Mevis 45 yd FG MISSED - IOWA 27, ISU 17 -3.55 2.7% -1.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 65

Started Drive at: IOWA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.72 - 2.83 = -3.55

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.17)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.72)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.7%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 12:03 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 10) Brock Purdy pass intercepted Matt Hankins return for no gain to the IowSt 49 - IOWA 0, ISU 3 -3.43 63.1% -5.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 49

Started Drive at: IOWA 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.81 - 0.62 = -3.43

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.62)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.19)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.1%

Win Probability (After): 57.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:07 ESPN team id 2294 (4th & 13 at ISU 32) Caleb Shudak 50 yd FG MISSED - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -3.19 43.9% -3.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 60

Started Drive at: ISU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.21 - 0.98 = -3.19

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.21)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.9%

Win Probability (After): 40.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:04 ESPN team id 2294 (3rd & 10 at ISU 30) Spencer Petras sacked by Jake Hummel for a loss of 11 yards to the IowSt 41 - IOWA 14, ISU 10 -2.80 67.8% -4.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 41

Started Drive at: ISU 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 2.78 = -2.80

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.78)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.8%

Win Probability (After): 63.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:36 ESPN team id 66 (3rd & 9 at ISU 26) Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 15 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST down - IOWA 7, ISU 3 2.56 38.3% 8.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 59

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.01 - -0.55 = 2.56

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.55)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.3%

Win Probability (After): 46.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:05 ESPN team id 2294 (3rd & 15 at IOWA 24) Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 21 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST down - IOWA 7, ISU 3 2.55 53.8% 9.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 55

Started Drive at: IOWA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.26 - -0.29 = 2.55

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.71)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.8%

Win Probability (After): 63.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q3 5:08 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 6) Breece Hall run for no gain Breece Hall fumbled, forced by Jestin Jacobs, recovered by Iowa Jack Campbell , return for 6 yds, (Caleb Shudak KICK) - IOWA 21, ISU 10 1.82 40.0% -21.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 99

Started Drive at: IOWA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.39 - -0.44 = 1.82

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.44)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 21, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.0%

Win Probability (After): 18.1%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:12 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 8 at ISU 47) Brock Purdy pass complete to Darren Wilson Jr. for 49 yds to the Iowa 4 for a 1ST down - IOWA 14, ISU 3 4.86 22.7% 12.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 4

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.40 - 0.54 = 4.86

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.46)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-5.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.7%

Win Probability (After): 35.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 4:05 ESPN team id 2294 (3rd & 15 at IOWA 24) Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 21 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST down - IOWA 7, ISU 3 2.55 53.8% 9.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 55

Started Drive at: IOWA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.26 - -0.29 = 2.55

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.71)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.8%

Win Probability (After): 63.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:36 ESPN team id 66 (3rd & 9 at ISU 26) Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 15 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST down - IOWA 7, ISU 3 2.56 38.3% 8.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 59

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.01 - -0.55 = 2.56

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.55)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.3%

Win Probability (After): 46.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:01 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 10 at ISU 26) Spencer Petras pass complete to Charlie Jones for 26 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK) - IOWA 14, ISU 3 3.98 71.3% 8.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99

Started Drive at: IOWA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.02 = 3.98

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.02)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.3%

Win Probability (After): 79.5%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:13 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & Goal at ISU 4) Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK) - IOWA 7, ISU 3 1.63 48.4% 7.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: ISU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.37 = 1.63

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.37)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.4%

Win Probability (After): 56.3%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 11:15 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 10 at IOWA 10) Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 6 - IOWA 14, ISU 10 -1.41 63.2% -7.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 94

Started Drive at: IOWA 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.68 - -0.27 = -1.41

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.73)

Score Difference (End): 4 (2.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.2%

Win Probability (After): 55.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:30 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at IOWA 45) Spencer Petras run for 1 yd to the Iowa 46 - IOWA 7, ISU 3 -0.34 69.2% -7.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 54

Started Drive at: IOWA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.70 - 2.04 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.04)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.2%

Win Probability (After): 62.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:56 ESPN team id 2294 (4th & 18 at ISU 33) Caleb Shudak 51 yd FG GOOD - IOWA 24, ISU 10 1.87 81.2% 6.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33

Started Drive at: ISU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.13 = 1.87

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.13)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 24, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.2%

Win Probability (After): 88.1%

Away Score: 21 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:39 ESPN team id 66 (4th & 4 at IOWA 5) Connor Assalley 23 yd FG GOOD - IOWA 0, ISU 3 0.09 59.4% 6.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 5

Started Drive at: IOWA 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.91 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.91)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.4%

Win Probability (After): 66.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 0:39 ESPN team id 66 (4th & 4 at IOWA 5) Connor Assalley 23 yd FG GOOD - IOWA 0, ISU 3 0.09 59.4% 6.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 5

Started Drive at: IOWA 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.91 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.91)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.4%

Win Probability (After): 66.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 8:13 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & Goal at ISU 4) Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK) - IOWA 7, ISU 3 1.63 48.4% 7.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: ISU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.37 = 1.63

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.37)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.4%

Win Probability (After): 56.3%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:01 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 10 at ISU 26) Spencer Petras pass complete to Charlie Jones for 26 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK) - IOWA 14, ISU 3 3.98 71.3% 8.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99

Started Drive at: IOWA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.02 = 3.98

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.02)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.3%

Win Probability (After): 79.5%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:07 ESPN team id 66 (1st & Goal at IOWA 4) Breece Hall run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK) - IOWA 14, ISU 10 2.28 35.3% 3.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.72 = 2.28

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.28)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.3%

Win Probability (After): 38.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q3 5:08 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 6) Breece Hall run for no gain Breece Hall fumbled, forced by Jestin Jacobs, recovered by Iowa Jack Campbell , return for 6 yds, (Caleb Shudak KICK) - IOWA 21, ISU 10 1.82 40.0% -21.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 99

Started Drive at: IOWA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.39 - -0.44 = 1.82

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.44)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 21, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.0%

Win Probability (After): 18.1%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:56 ESPN team id 2294 (4th & 18 at ISU 33) Caleb Shudak 51 yd FG GOOD - IOWA 24, ISU 10 1.87 81.2% 6.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33

Started Drive at: ISU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.13 = 1.87

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.13)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 24, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.2%

Win Probability (After): 88.1%

Away Score: 21 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 12:53 ESPN team id 2294 (4th & Goal at ISU 4) Caleb Shudak 22 yd FG GOOD - IOWA 27, ISU 10 -0.04 95.4% 2.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: ISU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.04 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.04)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.4%

Win Probability (After): 98.1%

Away Score: 24 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 3:27 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at IOWA 13) Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Tarique Milton for 13 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK) - IOWA 27, ISU 17 2.29 1.3% 3.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: IOWA 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.71 = 2.29

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-12.29)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 4.6%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2294 (Kickoff at IOWA 35) Andrew Mevis kickoff for 58 yds , Charlie Jones return for 20 yds to the Iowa 27 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -0.98 37.4% -1.8%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 73

Started Drive at: IOWA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.12 - 0.86 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.4%

Win Probability (After): 35.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:55 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at IOWA 27) Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 29 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -0.76 43.2% -3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 71

Started Drive at: IOWA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - 1.28 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.2%

Win Probability (After): 39.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:15 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 8 at IOWA 29) Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 5 yds to the Iowa 34 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 0.15 41.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 66

Started Drive at: IOWA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - 0.69 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.69)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.2%

Win Probability (After): 41.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:43 ESPN team id 2294 (3rd & 3 at IOWA 34) Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Sam LaPorta - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -2.01 41.4% -4.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: IOWA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.10 - 0.91 = -2.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.91)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.4%

Win Probability (After): 36.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:31 ESPN team id 2294 (4th & 3 at IOWA 34) Tory Taylor punt for 58 yds, downed at the IowSt 8 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 1.12 37.4% 4.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 92

Started Drive at: IOWA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - -0.90 = 1.12

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.90)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.22)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.4%

Win Probability (After): 41.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 13:25 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 8) Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the IowSt 9 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -0.63 58.3% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 91

Started Drive at: IOWA 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.80 - -0.17 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.3%

Win Probability (After): 57.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:49 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 9 at ISU 9) Brock Purdy pass incomplete - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -0.96 57.9% -3.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 91

Started Drive at: IOWA 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.73 - -0.78 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.9%

Win Probability (After): 54.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:44 ESPN team id 66 (3rd & 9 at ISU 9) Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Jaylin Noel - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -1.15 54.6% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 91

Started Drive at: IOWA 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.87 - -1.72 = -1.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.6%

Win Probability (After): 52.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:31 ESPN team id 66 (4th & 9 at ISU 9) Corey Dunn punt for 56 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 4 yds to the Iowa 39 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 0.74 51.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 61

Started Drive at: IOWA 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.11 - -2.85 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.85)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.11)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.2%

Win Probability (After): 51.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 12:22 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at IOWA 39) Tyler Goodson run for no gain to the Iowa 39 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -0.67 49.0% -2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: IOWA 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.43 - 2.10 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.0%

Win Probability (After): 46.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:52 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 10 at IOWA 39) Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Tyler Goodson - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -0.82 45.9% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: IOWA 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.50 - 1.32 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.32)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.9%

Win Probability (After): 44.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:46 ESPN team id 2294 (3rd & 10 at IOWA 39) Spencer Petras run for 5 yds to the Iowa 44 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -1.23 43.5% -2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 56

Started Drive at: IOWA 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.75 - 0.48 = -1.23

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.48)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.5%

Win Probability (After): 40.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:17 ESPN team id 2294 (4th & 5 at IOWA 44) Tory Taylor punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 6 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 0.93 40.4% 3.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 94

Started Drive at: IOWA 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - -0.73 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.73)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.20)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.4%

Win Probability (After): 43.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 11:10 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 6) Breece Hall run for 7 yds to the IowSt 13 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 0.48 53.8% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 87

Started Drive at: IOWA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - -0.24 = 0.48

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.24)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.8%

Win Probability (After): 54.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:40 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 3 at ISU 13) Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the IowSt 17 for a 1ST down - IOWA 0, ISU 0 0.28 54.1% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 83

Started Drive at: IOWA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - 0.37 = 0.28

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.1%

Win Probability (After): 56.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:35 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 17) IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the IowSt 12 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -0.80 55.2% -2.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 88

Started Drive at: IOWA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.00 - 0.80 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.80)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.2%

Win Probability (After): 52.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:05 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 15 at ISU 12) Breece Hall run for 1 yd to the IowSt 13 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -0.75 51.8% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 87

Started Drive at: IOWA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.76 - -0.01 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.8%

Win Probability (After): 52.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:20 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 14 at ISU 13) Brock Purdy pass complete to Darren Wilson Jr. for 7 yds to the IowSt 20 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 0.02 51.3% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 80

Started Drive at: IOWA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.83 - -0.85 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.85)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.3%

Win Probability (After): 50.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:41 ESPN team id 66 (3rd & 7 at ISU 20) Brock Purdy pass incomplete - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -1.18 50.7% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80

Started Drive at: IOWA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.16 - -0.98 = -1.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.7%

Win Probability (After): 48.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:29 ESPN team id 66 (4th & 7 at ISU 20) Corey Dunn punt for 39 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 18 yds to the IowSt 41 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -1.24 47.9% 3.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 41

Started Drive at: IOWA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.49 - -2.25 = -1.24

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.25)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.49)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.9%

Win Probability (After): 51.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:18 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at ISU 41) Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the IowSt 39 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -0.55 48.5% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 39

Started Drive at: ISU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.95 - 3.51 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.51)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 49.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:45 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 8 at ISU 39) IOWA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Kym-Mani King) to the IowSt 29 for a 1ST down - IOWA 0, ISU 0 1.22 50.1% -0.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 29

Started Drive at: ISU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.18 - 2.96 = 1.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.96)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.1%

Win Probability (After): 49.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:39 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at ISU 29) Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -0.60 51.1% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 29

Started Drive at: ISU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.57 - 4.16 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.1%

Win Probability (After): 50.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:20 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 10 at ISU 29) Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 1 yd to the IowSt 28 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -0.67 50.2% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 28

Started Drive at: ISU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.91 - 3.58 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.58)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.2%

Win Probability (After): 49.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:00 ESPN team id 2294 (3rd & 9 at ISU 28) Spencer Petras sacked by Will McDonald IV for a loss of 4 yards to the IowSt 32 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -1.98 49.2% -4.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 32

Started Drive at: ISU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 2.93 = -1.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.93)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.2%

Win Probability (After): 44.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:07 ESPN team id 2294 (4th & 13 at ISU 32) Caleb Shudak 50 yd FG MISSED - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -3.19 43.9% -3.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 60

Started Drive at: ISU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.21 - 0.98 = -3.19

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.21)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.9%

Win Probability (After): 40.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 6:02 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 32) Brock Purdy pass complete to Jared Rus for 9 yds to the IowSt 41 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 0.86 59.2% 1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 59

Started Drive at: IOWA 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.61 - 1.75 = 0.86

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.75)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.2%

Win Probability (After): 60.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:45 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 1 at ISU 41) Breece Hall run for 8 yds to the IowSt 49 for a 1ST down - IOWA 0, ISU 0 0.16 61.0% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 51

Started Drive at: IOWA 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - 2.58 = 0.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.58)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.0%

Win Probability (After): 61.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:02 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 49) Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 2 yds to the Iowa 49 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -0.41 61.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 49

Started Drive at: IOWA 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.32 - 2.73 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.73)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.4%

Win Probability (After): 61.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:33 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 8 at IOWA 49) Jirehl Brock run for 14 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST down - IOWA 0, ISU 0 1.48 61.5% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 35

Started Drive at: IOWA 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.81 - 2.33 = 1.48

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.33)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.5%

Win Probability (After): 62.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:49 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at IOWA 35) Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 12 yds to the Iowa 23 for a 1ST down - IOWA 0, ISU 0 0.71 62.8% 2.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 23

Started Drive at: IOWA 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.51 - 3.80 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.80)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.8%

Win Probability (After): 65.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:10 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at IOWA 23) Brock Purdy run for 8 yds to the Iowa 15 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 0.71 61.2% 4.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 15

Started Drive at: IOWA 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.22 - 4.51 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.51)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.2%

Win Probability (After): 65.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:34 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 2 at IOWA 15) Breece Hall run for 4 yds to the Iowa 11 for a 1ST down - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -0.05 63.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 11

Started Drive at: IOWA 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.18 - 5.23 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.23)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.2%

Win Probability (After): 63.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:56 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at IOWA 11) Breece Hall run for 2 yds to the Iowa 9 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -0.45 63.4% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 9

Started Drive at: IOWA 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.72 - 5.17 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.4%

Win Probability (After): 62.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:21 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 8 at IOWA 9) Brock Purdy pass incomplete - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -0.84 63.1% -2.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: IOWA 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.88 - 4.72 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.1%

Win Probability (After): 60.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:15 ESPN team id 66 (3rd & 8 at IOWA 9) Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 4 yds to the Iowa 5 - IOWA 0, ISU 0 -0.97 60.2% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 5

Started Drive at: IOWA 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 3.89 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.89)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.2%

Win Probability (After): 59.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:39 ESPN team id 66 (4th & 4 at IOWA 5) Connor Assalley 23 yd FG GOOD - IOWA 0, ISU 3 0.09 59.4% 6.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 5

Started Drive at: IOWA 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.91 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.91)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.4%

Win Probability (After): 66.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:39 ESPN team id 2294 (Kickoff at IOWA 35) Andrew Mevis kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - IOWA 0, ISU 3 0.00 41.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - 0.82 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.18)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.1%

Win Probability (After): 41.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:30 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at IOWA 25) Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 28 - IOWA 0, ISU 3 -0.44 41.1% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 72

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 0.82 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.18)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.1%

Win Probability (After): 39.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:55 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 7 at IOWA 28) Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 2 yds to the Iowa 30 - IOWA 0, ISU 3 -0.40 38.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 70

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 0.39 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.61)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.2%

Win Probability (After): 37.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:12 ESPN team id 2294 (3rd & 5 at IOWA 30) Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 7 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST down - IOWA 0, ISU 3 1.78 38.4% 2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 63

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.80 - 0.01 = 1.78

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.99)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.4%

Win Probability (After): 40.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:40 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at IOWA 37) Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 40 - IOWA 0, ISU 3 -0.38 42.3% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 60

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.40 - 1.78 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.22)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.3%

Win Probability (After): 41.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:55 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 7 at IOWA 40) Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 44 - IOWA 0, ISU 3 -0.04 40.9% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 56

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.40 - 1.44 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.56)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.9%

Win Probability (After): 41.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:19 ESPN team id 2294 (3rd & 3 at IOWA 44) Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Sam LaPorta - IOWA 0, ISU 3 -2.04 39.5% -2.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.55 - 1.49 = -2.04

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.51)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.5%

Win Probability (After): 36.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:11 ESPN team id 2294 (4th & 3 at IOWA 44) Tory Taylor punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tarique Milton at the IowSt 10 - IOWA 0, ISU 3 -0.10 35.0% 2.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 90

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.62 - -0.51 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.51)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.62)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.0%

Win Probability (After): 37.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 12:03 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 10) Brock Purdy pass intercepted Matt Hankins return for no gain to the IowSt 49 - IOWA 0, ISU 3 -3.43 63.1% -5.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 49

Started Drive at: IOWA 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.81 - 0.62 = -3.43

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.62)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.19)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.1%

Win Probability (After): 57.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:00 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at ISU 49) Spencer Petras pass complete to Jackson Ritter for 9 yds to the IowSt 40 - IOWA 0, ISU 3 0.86 40.1% 5.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 40

Started Drive at: ISU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.76 - 2.90 = 0.86

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.10)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.1%

Win Probability (After): 45.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:28 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 1 at ISU 40) Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 37 for a 1ST down - IOWA 0, ISU 3 -0.24 46.8% -3.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 37

Started Drive at: ISU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 3.71 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.71)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.8%

Win Probability (After): 43.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:57 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at ISU 37) Spencer Petras pass complete to Luke Lachey for 17 yds to the IowSt 20 for a 1ST down - IOWA 0, ISU 3 1.10 46.0% 4.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 20

Started Drive at: ISU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - 3.42 = 1.10

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.42)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.0%

Win Probability (After): 50.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:22 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at ISU 20) Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the IowSt 16 - IOWA 0, ISU 3 0.04 51.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 16

Started Drive at: ISU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.56 - 4.52 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.52)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.2%

Win Probability (After): 50.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:08 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 6 at ISU 16) Timeout IOWA ST, clock 10:08 - IOWA 0, ISU 3 0.00 51.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: ISU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.56 - 4.56 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.56)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.2%

Win Probability (After): 51.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:59 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 6 at ISU 16) Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 4 yds to the IowSt 12 - IOWA 0, ISU 3 -0.13 50.9% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 12

Started Drive at: ISU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.43 - 4.56 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.56)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.9%

Win Probability (After): 50.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:22 ESPN team id 2294 (3rd & 2 at ISU 12) Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the IowSt 9 for a 1ST down - IOWA 0, ISU 3 0.78 48.2% 3.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 9

Started Drive at: ISU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.20 - 4.42 = 0.78

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.42)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.2%

Win Probability (After): 51.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:50 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & Goal at ISU 9) Monte Pottebaum run for 5 yds to the IowSt 4 - IOWA 0, ISU 3 0.26 48.2% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 4

Started Drive at: ISU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.42 - 5.16 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.16)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 0, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.2%

Win Probability (After): 50.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:13 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & Goal at ISU 4) Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK) - IOWA 7, ISU 3 1.63 48.4% 7.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: ISU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.37 = 1.63

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.37)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.4%

Win Probability (After): 56.3%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:13 ESPN team id 66 (Kickoff at ISU 35) Caleb Shudak kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - IOWA 7, ISU 3 0.00 46.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 0.83 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.17)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.1%

Win Probability (After): 46.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:05 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 25) Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 28 - IOWA 7, ISU 3 -0.45 45.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 72

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 0.83 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.17)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.5%

Win Probability (After): 45.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:26 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 7 at ISU 28) Brock Purdy run for 3 yds to the IowSt 31 - IOWA 7, ISU 3 -0.17 43.5% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 69

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - 0.39 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.61)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.5%

Win Probability (After): 44.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:10 ESPN team id 66 (3rd & 4 at ISU 31) IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (Derek Schweiger) to the IowSt 26 - IOWA 7, ISU 3 -0.84 41.7% -1.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 74

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.57 - 0.27 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.73)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.7%

Win Probability (After): 40.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:36 ESPN team id 66 (3rd & 9 at ISU 26) Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 15 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST down - IOWA 7, ISU 3 2.56 38.3% 8.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 59

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.01 - -0.55 = 2.56

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.55)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.3%

Win Probability (After): 46.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:24 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 41) Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the IowSt 44 - IOWA 7, ISU 3 -0.31 47.8% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 56

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.69 - 2.00 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.00)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.8%

Win Probability (After): 45.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:51 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 7 at ISU 44) Brock Purdy pass incomplete - IOWA 7, ISU 3 -0.66 48.1% -4.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.93 - 1.59 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.41)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.1%

Win Probability (After): 43.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:45 ESPN team id 66 (3rd & 7 at ISU 44) Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Charlie Kolar - IOWA 7, ISU 3 -1.31 44.3% -4.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.68 - 0.63 = -1.31

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.37)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.3%

Win Probability (After): 39.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:35 ESPN team id 66 (4th & 7 at ISU 44) Corey Dunn punt for 27 yds, downed at the Iowa 29 - IOWA 7, ISU 3 -0.62 39.6% 1.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 71

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.27 - -0.65 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.65)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.27)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.6%

Win Probability (After): 40.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:23 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at IOWA 29) Spencer Petras sacked by Zach Petersen and Will McDonald IV for a loss of 7 yards to the Iowa 22 - IOWA 7, ISU 3 -1.23 60.1% -4.9%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 78

Started Drive at: IOWA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - 1.48 = -1.23

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.48)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.1%

Win Probability (After): 55.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:42 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 17 at IOWA 22) Spencer Petras pass complete to Ivory Kelly-Martin for 2 yds to the Iowa 24 - IOWA 7, ISU 3 -0.66 56.3% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 76

Started Drive at: IOWA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.32 - 0.34 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.34)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.3%

Win Probability (After): 54.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:05 ESPN team id 2294 (3rd & 15 at IOWA 24) Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 21 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST down - IOWA 7, ISU 3 2.55 53.8% 9.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 55

Started Drive at: IOWA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.26 - -0.29 = 2.55

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.71)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.8%

Win Probability (After): 63.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:30 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at IOWA 45) Spencer Petras run for 1 yd to the Iowa 46 - IOWA 7, ISU 3 -0.34 69.2% -7.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 54

Started Drive at: IOWA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.70 - 2.04 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.04)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.2%

Win Probability (After): 62.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:52 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 9 at IOWA 46) Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 8 yds to the IowSt 46 - IOWA 7, ISU 3 0.65 68.6% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 46

Started Drive at: IOWA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.14 - 1.49 = 0.65

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.49)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.6%

Win Probability (After): 69.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:13 ESPN team id 2294 (3rd & 1 at ISU 46) Spencer Petras run for 2 yds to the IowSt 44 for a 1ST down - IOWA 7, ISU 3 0.55 69.3% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 44

Started Drive at: IOWA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.31 - 1.75 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.75)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.3%

Win Probability (After): 70.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:55 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at ISU 44) Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 8 yds to the IowSt 36 - IOWA 7, ISU 3 0.82 70.5% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 36

Started Drive at: IOWA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.95 - 2.13 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.13)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.5%

Win Probability (After): 71.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:16 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 2 at ISU 36) Spencer Petras pass complete to Charlie Jones for 10 yds to the IowSt 26 for a 1ST down - IOWA 7, ISU 3 0.75 71.8% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 26

Started Drive at: IOWA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 2.72 = 0.75

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.72)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.8%

Win Probability (After): 72.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:15 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at ISU 26) Timeout IOWA, clock 01:15 - IOWA 7, ISU 3 0.00 72.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: IOWA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 3.47 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.47)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.8%

Win Probability (After): 72.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:08 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at ISU 26) Spencer Petras pass incomplete - IOWA 7, ISU 3 -0.31 71.9% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: IOWA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.01 - 3.32 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.32)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 7, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.9%

Win Probability (After): 71.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:01 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 10 at ISU 26) Spencer Petras pass complete to Charlie Jones for 26 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK) - IOWA 14, ISU 3 3.98 71.3% 8.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99

Started Drive at: IOWA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.02 = 3.98

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.02)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.3%

Win Probability (After): 79.5%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:01 ESPN team id 66 (Kickoff at ISU 35) Caleb Shudak kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - IOWA 14, ISU 3 0.00 21.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - 0.52 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.48)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.7%

Win Probability (After): 21.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:50 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 25) Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 4 yds to the IowSt 29 - IOWA 14, ISU 3 0.17 21.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 0.38 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.62)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.6%

Win Probability (After): 21.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:32 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 6 at ISU 29) Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 16 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST down - IOWA 14, ISU 3 0.74 21.7% 1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 55

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - 0.41 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.59)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.7%

Win Probability (After): 23.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:23 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 45) Brock Purdy pass complete to Chase Allen for 2 yds to the IowSt 47 - IOWA 14, ISU 3 0.37 22.6% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 53

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.04 - 0.68 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.32)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.6%

Win Probability (After): 23.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:12 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 8 at ISU 47) Brock Purdy pass complete to Darren Wilson Jr. for 49 yds to the Iowa 4 for a 1ST down - IOWA 14, ISU 3 4.86 22.7% 12.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 4

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.40 - 0.54 = 4.86

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.46)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-5.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.7%

Win Probability (After): 35.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:12 ESPN team id 66 (1st & Goal at IOWA 4) Timeout IOWA ST, clock 00:12 - IOWA 14, ISU 3 0.00 35.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.40 - 5.40 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-5.60)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-5.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.1%

Win Probability (After): 35.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q2 0:07 ESPN team id 66 (1st & Goal at IOWA 4) Breece Hall run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Mevis KICK) - IOWA 14, ISU 10 2.28 35.3% 3.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.72 = 2.28

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.28)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.3%

Win Probability (After): 38.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q2 0:07 ESPN team id 2294 (Kickoff at IOWA 35) Andrew Mevis kickoff for 53 yds , Charlie Jones return for 24 yds to the Iowa 36 - IOWA 14, ISU 10 -0.08 64.9% 0.4%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 64

Started Drive at: IOWA 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.15 - 0.08 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.08)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.9%

Win Probability (After): 65.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 66 (Kickoff at ISU 35) Caleb Shudak kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - IOWA 14, ISU 10 0.00 43.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.35 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.65)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.3%

Win Probability (After): 43.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:54 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 25) Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Xavier Hutchinson - IOWA 14, ISU 10 -0.68 44.7% -3.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.25 - 0.43 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.57)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.7%

Win Probability (After): 41.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:50 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 10 at ISU 25) Brock Purdy pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 10 yds to the IowSt 35 for a 1ST down - IOWA 14, ISU 10 1.46 44.4% 2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.44 - -0.01 = 1.46

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.01)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.4%

Win Probability (After): 46.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:15 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 35) Breece Hall run for 5 yds to the IowSt 40 - IOWA 14, ISU 10 0.02 47.1% 2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 60

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.62 - 1.60 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.40)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.1%

Win Probability (After): 49.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:37 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 5 at ISU 40) Brock Purdy pass incomplete - IOWA 14, ISU 10 -0.98 47.8% -3.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - 1.63 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.37)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.8%

Win Probability (After): 44.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:32 ESPN team id 66 (3rd & 5 at ISU 40) Brock Purdy pass complete to Xavier Hutchinson for 6 yds to the IowSt 46 for a 1ST down - IOWA 14, ISU 10 1.57 44.1% 5.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 54

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 0.68 = 1.57

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.32)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.1%

Win Probability (After): 49.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:56 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 46) Brock Purdy run for 2 yds to the IowSt 48 - IOWA 14, ISU 10 -0.50 48.4% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 52

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.73 - 2.23 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.77)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.4%

Win Probability (After): 47.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:25 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 8 at ISU 48) Brock Purdy pass incomplete to Joe Scates - IOWA 14, ISU 10 -0.90 46.5% -2.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.81 - 1.72 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.28)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.5%

Win Probability (After): 43.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:15 ESPN team id 66 (3rd & 8 at ISU 48) Brock Purdy pass incomplete - IOWA 14, ISU 10 -1.82 43.4% -3.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.00 - 0.82 = -1.82

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.18)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.4%

Win Probability (After): 39.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:07 ESPN team id 66 (4th & 8 at ISU 48) Corey Dunn punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Iowa 10 - IOWA 14, ISU 10 0.45 39.8% -3.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 90

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.54 - -0.99 = 0.45

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.99)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.54)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.8%

Win Probability (After): 36.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 12:02 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at IOWA 10) Tyler Goodson run for no gain to the Iowa 10 - IOWA 14, ISU 10 -0.89 63.8% -3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90

Started Drive at: IOWA 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.23 - 0.65 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.65)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.8%

Win Probability (After): 60.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:15 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 10 at IOWA 10) Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 6 - IOWA 14, ISU 10 -1.41 63.2% -7.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 94

Started Drive at: IOWA 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.68 - -0.27 = -1.41

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.73)

Score Difference (End): 4 (2.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.2%

Win Probability (After): 55.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:40 ESPN team id 2294 (3rd & 14 at IOWA 6) Spencer Petras pass incomplete - IOWA 14, ISU 10 -1.07 57.1% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 94

Started Drive at: IOWA 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.77 - -1.71 = -1.07

Score Difference (Before): 4 (2.29)

Score Difference (End): 4 (1.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.1%

Win Probability (After): 55.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:25 ESPN team id 2294 (4th & 14 at IOWA 6) Tory Taylor punt for 69 yds, downed at the IowSt 25 - IOWA 14, ISU 10 1.98 57.7% 1.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 75

Started Drive at: IOWA 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.64 - -2.62 = 1.98

Score Difference (Before): 4 (1.38)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.36)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.7%

Win Probability (After): 59.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:17 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 25) Brock Purdy run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 23 - IOWA 14, ISU 10 -1.30 41.5% -2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 77

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.44 - 0.85 = -1.30

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.15)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.5%

Win Probability (After): 38.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:05 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 12 at ISU 23) Brock Purdy sacked by Jack Campbell and Deontae Craig for a loss of 8 yards to the IowSt 15 - IOWA 14, ISU 10 -1.03 36.2% 0.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 85

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.59 - -0.56 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.56)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-5.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.2%

Win Probability (After): 36.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:32 ESPN team id 66 (3rd & 20 at ISU 15) Brock Purdy sacked by Joe Evans for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 13 - IOWA 14, ISU 10 -1.33 35.5% -4.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 87

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.01 - -1.68 = -1.33

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-5.68)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-7.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.5%

Win Probability (After): 31.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:12 ESPN team id 66 (4th & 22 at ISU 13) Corey Dunn punt for 54 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 24 yds to the IowSt 43 - IOWA 14, ISU 10 -0.66 32.8% -1.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 43

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.54 - -2.88 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-6.88)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.54)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.8%

Win Probability (After): 31.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 8:05 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at ISU 43) Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 7 yds to the IowSt 36 - IOWA 14, ISU 10 0.42 68.3% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 36

Started Drive at: ISU 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.91 - 3.48 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.48)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.3%

Win Probability (After): 69.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:26 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 3 at ISU 36) Tyler Goodson run for 6 yds to the IowSt 30 for a 1ST down - IOWA 14, ISU 10 0.38 69.3% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 30

Started Drive at: ISU 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.19 - 3.81 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.81)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.3%

Win Probability (After): 69.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:56 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at ISU 30) Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Sam LaPorta - IOWA 14, ISU 10 -0.63 70.5% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: ISU 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.53 - 4.16 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.16)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.5%

Win Probability (After): 69.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:39 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 10 at ISU 30) Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for no gain to the IowSt 30 - IOWA 14, ISU 10 -0.87 69.8% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: ISU 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.75 - 3.62 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.62)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.8%

Win Probability (After): 66.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:04 ESPN team id 2294 (3rd & 10 at ISU 30) Spencer Petras sacked by Jake Hummel for a loss of 11 yards to the IowSt 41 - IOWA 14, ISU 10 -2.80 67.8% -4.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 41

Started Drive at: ISU 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 2.78 = -2.80

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.78)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.8%

Win Probability (After): 63.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:16 ESPN team id 2294 (4th & 21 at ISU 41) Tory Taylor punt for 35 yds, downed at the IowSt 6 - IOWA 14, ISU 10 0.40 63.1% -3.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 94

Started Drive at: ISU 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.40 - 0.00 = 0.40

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.00)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.40)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 14, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.1%

Win Probability (After): 59.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 5:08 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 6) Breece Hall run for no gain Breece Hall fumbled, forced by Jestin Jacobs, recovered by Iowa Jack Campbell , return for 6 yds, (Caleb Shudak KICK) - IOWA 21, ISU 10 1.82 40.0% -21.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 99

Started Drive at: IOWA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.39 - -0.44 = 1.82

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.44)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 21, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.0%

Win Probability (After): 18.1%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:08 ESPN team id 66 (Kickoff at ISU 35) Caleb Shudak kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - IOWA 21, ISU 10 0.00 19.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - -0.10 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.10)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 21, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.7%

Win Probability (After): 19.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:00 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 25) Jirehl Brock run for 1 yd to the IowSt 26 - IOWA 21, ISU 10 -0.47 19.7% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.57 - -0.10 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.10)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 21, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.7%

Win Probability (After): 18.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:23 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 9 at ISU 26) Brock Purdy pass intercepted Seth Benson return for 6 yds to the IowSt 25 - IOWA 21, ISU 10 -4.15 17.9% -5.7%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 25

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.73 - -0.58 = -4.15

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.58)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.73)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 21, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.9%

Win Probability (After): 12.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:15 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at ISU 25) Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 1 yd to the IowSt 24 - IOWA 21, ISU 10 -0.57 90.5% -2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 24

Started Drive at: ISU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.17 - 4.74 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.74)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 21, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.5%

Win Probability (After): 87.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:41 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 9 at ISU 24) Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Charlie Jones - IOWA 21, ISU 10 -0.80 89.7% -3.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: ISU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.36 - 4.16 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.16)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 21, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.7%

Win Probability (After): 86.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:41 ESPN team id 2294 (3rd & 9 at ISU 24) Timeout IOWA, clock 03:41 - IOWA 21, ISU 10 0.00 87.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: ISU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.36 - 3.36 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.36)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 21, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.0%

Win Probability (After): 87.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:35 ESPN team id 2294 (3rd & 9 at ISU 24) Spencer Petras sacked by Eyioma Uwazurike for a loss of 9 yards to the IowSt 33 - IOWA 21, ISU 10 -2.23 84.8% -3.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 33

Started Drive at: ISU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 3.34 = -2.23

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.34)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 21, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.8%

Win Probability (After): 81.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:56 ESPN team id 2294 (4th & 18 at ISU 33) Caleb Shudak 51 yd FG GOOD - IOWA 24, ISU 10 1.87 81.2% 6.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33

Started Drive at: ISU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.13 = 1.87

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.13)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 24, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.2%

Win Probability (After): 88.1%

Away Score: 21 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 2:56 ESPN team id 66 (Kickoff at ISU 35) Caleb Shudak kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - IOWA 24, ISU 10 0.00 12.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.53 - -0.53 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.53)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 24, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.4%

Win Probability (After): 12.4%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:48 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 25) Breece Hall run for 16 yds to the IowSt 41 for a 1ST down - IOWA 24, ISU 10 1.43 12.4% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 59

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - -0.53 = 1.43

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.53)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 24, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.4%

Win Probability (After): 14.4%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:28 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 41) Breece Hall run for 8 yds to the IowSt 49 - IOWA 24, ISU 10 0.70 14.4% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 51

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.61 - 0.91 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.09)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 24, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.4%

Win Probability (After): 15.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:52 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 2 at ISU 49) Brock Purdy pass incomplete - IOWA 24, ISU 10 -0.96 13.2% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 51

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.68 - 1.64 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.36)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 24, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.2%

Win Probability (After): 14.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:48 ESPN team id 66 (3rd & 2 at ISU 49) Breece Hall run for 3 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST down - IOWA 24, ISU 10 1.14 11.4% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 48

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.84 - 0.71 = 1.14

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.29)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 24, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.4%

Win Probability (After): 13.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:30 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at IOWA 48) Brock Purdy pass complete to Breece Hall for 2 yds to the Iowa 46 - IOWA 24, ISU 10 -0.54 13.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 46

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.34 - 1.88 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.12)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 24, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.2%

Win Probability (After): 13.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:45 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 8 at IOWA 46) Brock Purdy pass intercepted Matt Hankins return for 41 yds to the IowSt 22 - IOWA 24, ISU 10 -6.44 11.6% -5.8%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 22

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -5.05 - 1.39 = -6.44

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.61)

Score Difference (End): 14 (19.05)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 24, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.6%

Win Probability (After): 5.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:38 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at ISU 22) Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the IowSt 18 - IOWA 24, ISU 10 -0.22 95.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 18

Started Drive at: ISU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.82 - 5.04 = -0.22

Score Difference (Before): 14 (19.04)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 24, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.0%

Win Probability (After): 94.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 6 at ISU 18) Tyler Goodson run for 13 yds to the IowSt 5 for a 1ST down - IOWA 24, ISU 10 1.25 94.6% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 5

Started Drive at: ISU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.04 - 4.79 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.79)

Score Difference (End): 14 (20.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 24, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.6%

Win Probability (After): 95.6%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:15 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & Goal at ISU 5) Monte Pottebaum run for 3 yds to the IowSt 2 - IOWA 24, ISU 10 0.14 96.3% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 2

Started Drive at: ISU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.15 - 6.01 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): 14 (20.01)

Score Difference (End): 14 (20.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 24, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.3%

Win Probability (After): 95.5%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:40 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & Goal at ISU 2) Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 2 yards to the IowSt 4 - IOWA 24, ISU 10 -1.37 96.5% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 4

Started Drive at: ISU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.76 - 6.14 = -1.37

Score Difference (Before): 14 (20.14)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 24, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.5%

Win Probability (After): 95.7%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:00 ESPN team id 2294 (3rd & Goal at ISU 4) Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Sam LaPorta - IOWA 24, ISU 10 -1.74 96.4% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: ISU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.06 - 4.80 = -1.74

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.80)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 24, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.4%

Win Probability (After): 94.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:53 ESPN team id 2294 (4th & Goal at ISU 4) Caleb Shudak 22 yd FG GOOD - IOWA 27, ISU 10 -0.04 95.4% 2.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: ISU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.04 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.04)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.4%

Win Probability (After): 98.1%

Away Score: 24 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 12:53 ESPN team id 66 (Kickoff at ISU 35) Caleb Shudak kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - IOWA 27, ISU 10 0.00 3.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.44 - -0.44 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.44)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.1%

Win Probability (After): 3.1%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:43 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 25) Breece Hall run for no gain to the IowSt 25 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 -0.55 3.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.02 - -0.46 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.46)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-18.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.1%

Win Probability (After): 2.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:11 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 10 at ISU 25) Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 4 yds to the IowSt 29 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 -0.44 2.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.50 - -1.05 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-18.05)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-18.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.7%

Win Probability (After): 2.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:38 ESPN team id 66 (3rd & 6 at ISU 29) Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete - IOWA 27, ISU 10 -1.18 2.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.62 - -1.45 = -1.18

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-18.45)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-19.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.4%

Win Probability (After): 2.1%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:25 ESPN team id 66 (4th & 6 at ISU 29) Corey Dunn punt for 38 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 7 yds to the Iowa 36 IOWA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kyler Fisher) to the Iowa 25 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 0.30 2.1% -0.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 75

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.33 - -2.40 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-19.62)

Score Difference (End): 17 (19.33)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.1%

Win Probability (After): 1.6%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 11:19 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at IOWA 25) Tyler Goodson run for 5 yds to the Iowa 30 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 -0.04 98.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.33 - 2.38 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): 17 (19.38)

Score Difference (End): 17 (19.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.5%

Win Probability (After): 98.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:51 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 5 at IOWA 30) Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 29 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 -0.98 98.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 71

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - 2.34 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 17 (19.34)

Score Difference (End): 17 (18.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.6%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:03 ESPN team id 2294 (3rd & 6 at IOWA 29) Spencer Petras pass incomplete - IOWA 27, ISU 10 -1.44 98.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.14 - 1.30 = -1.44

Score Difference (Before): 17 (18.30)

Score Difference (End): 17 (16.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.5%

Win Probability (After): 98.0%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:52 ESPN team id 2294 (4th & 6 at IOWA 29) Tory Taylor punt for 58 yds , Tarique Milton returns for 11 yds to the IowSt 24 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 0.38 98.3% -1.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 76

Started Drive at: IOWA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.11 - -0.27 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): 17 (16.73)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.11)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.3%

Win Probability (After): 97.0%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:47 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 24) Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete to Xavier Hutchinson - IOWA 27, ISU 10 -0.58 3.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76

Started Drive at: IOWA 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.69 - -0.11 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.11)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.0%

Win Probability (After): 2.6%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:40 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 10 at ISU 24) Jirehl Brock run for no gain to the IowSt 24 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 -0.84 2.6% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76

Started Drive at: IOWA 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.56 - -0.72 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.72)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-18.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.6%

Win Probability (After): 2.0%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:06 ESPN team id 66 (3rd & 10 at ISU 24) Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jirehl Brock for 2 yds to the IowSt 26 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 -0.86 2.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 74

Started Drive at: IOWA 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.36 - -1.50 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-18.50)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-19.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:19 ESPN team id 66 (4th & 8 at ISU 26) Cameron Shook punt for 40 yds, downed at the Iowa 34 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 -0.34 1.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 66

Started Drive at: IOWA 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.56 - -2.23 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-19.23)

Score Difference (End): 17 (19.56)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.4%

Win Probability (After): 1.1%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 8:12 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at IOWA 34) Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 5 yds to the Iowa 39 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 -0.22 98.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 61

Started Drive at: IOWA 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 2.40 = -0.22

Score Difference (Before): 17 (19.40)

Score Difference (End): 17 (19.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.9%

Win Probability (After): 98.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:30 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 5 at IOWA 39) Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds to the Iowa 41 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 -0.55 98.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 59

Started Drive at: IOWA 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.70 - 2.26 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): 17 (19.26)

Score Difference (End): 17 (18.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.9%

Win Probability (After): 98.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:49 ESPN team id 2294 (3rd & 3 at IOWA 41) Timeout IOWA, clock 06:49 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 0.00 99.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59

Started Drive at: IOWA 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.70 - 1.70 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 17 (18.70)

Score Difference (End): 17 (18.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:44 ESPN team id 2294 (3rd & 3 at IOWA 41) Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 40 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 -1.62 99.1% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 60

Started Drive at: IOWA 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - 1.83 = -1.62

Score Difference (Before): 17 (18.83)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:36 ESPN team id 2294 (4th & 4 at IOWA 40) Timeout IOWA ST, clock 06:36 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 0.00 98.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: IOWA 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - 0.21 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 17 (17.21)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.5%

Win Probability (After): 98.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 6:36 ESPN team id 2294 (4th & 4 at IOWA 40) IOWA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 35 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 -0.32 98.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 65

Started Drive at: IOWA 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.26 - 0.06 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): 17 (17.06)

Score Difference (End): 17 (16.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.7%

Win Probability (After): 98.6%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 6:27 ESPN team id 2294 (4th & 9 at IOWA 35) Tory Taylor punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IowSt 17 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 0.41 98.6% 0.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 83

Started Drive at: IOWA 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.11 - -0.31 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 17 (16.69)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.11)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.6%

Win Probability (After): 98.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 6:15 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 17) Eli Sanders run for 5 yds to the IowSt 22 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 0.01 1.0% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 78

Started Drive at: IOWA 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - -0.09 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.09)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 6:05 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 5 at ISU 22) Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 23 yds to the IowSt 45 for a 1ST down - IOWA 27, ISU 10 1.96 1.1% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 55

Started Drive at: IOWA 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - -0.15 = 1.96

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.15)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-15.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 1.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 5:45 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 45) Eli Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the IowSt 42 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 -0.94 1.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 58

Started Drive at: IOWA 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 1.49 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-15.51)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-16.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.4%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 5:02 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 13 at ISU 42) IOWA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jack Koerner) to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST down - IOWA 27, ISU 10 1.28 1.0% 0.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 48

Started Drive at: IOWA 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.13 - 0.86 = 1.28

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.14)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-14.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 5:02 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at IOWA 48) Timeout IOWA, clock 05:02 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 0.00 1.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48

Started Drive at: IOWA 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.13 - 2.13 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-14.87)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-14.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 4:45 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at IOWA 48) Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 7 yds to the Iowa 41 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 0.52 1.2% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 41

Started Drive at: IOWA 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.88 - 2.36 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-14.64)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-14.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.7%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 4:42 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 3 at IOWA 41) IOWA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 46 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 -0.88 1.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 46

Started Drive at: IOWA 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.91 - 2.80 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-14.20)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-15.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.4%

Win Probability (After): 1.1%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 4:20 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 8 at IOWA 46) IOWA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yahya Black) to the Iowa 41 - IOWA 27, ISU 10 0.77 1.1% 0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 41

Started Drive at: IOWA 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.80 - 2.03 = 0.77

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-14.97)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-14.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 1.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 4:16 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 3 at IOWA 41) Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Tarique Milton for 9 yds to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST down - IOWA 27, ISU 10 0.95 1.3% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 32

Started Drive at: IOWA 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.57 - 2.62 = 0.95

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-14.38)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-13.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 3:52 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at IOWA 32) Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Eli Sanders for 19 yds to the Iowa 13 for a 1ST down - IOWA 27, ISU 10 1.44 1.1% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 13

Started Drive at: IOWA 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.76 - 3.33 = 1.44

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-13.67)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-12.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 2.3%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 3:27 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at IOWA 13) Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Tarique Milton for 13 yds for a TD, (Connor Assalley KICK) - IOWA 27, ISU 17 2.29 1.3% 3.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: IOWA 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.71 = 2.29

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-12.29)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 4.6%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 3:27 ESPN team id 2294 (Kickoff at IOWA 35) Andrew Mevis kickoff for 16 yds - IOWA 27, ISU 17 1.00 98.4% 0.4%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 51

Started Drive at: IOWA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.06 - 1.06 = 1.00

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.06)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.4%

Win Probability (After): 98.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:25 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at IOWA 49) Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the IowSt 49 - IOWA 27, ISU 17 -0.22 98.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 49

Started Drive at: IOWA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 2.04 = -0.22

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.04)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.8%

Win Probability (After): 98.6%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:35 ESPN team id 2294 (2nd & 8 at ISU 49) Tyler Goodson run for 5 yds to the IowSt 44 - IOWA 27, ISU 17 0.16 99.1% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 44

Started Drive at: IOWA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.76 - 1.60 = 0.16

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.60)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:55 ESPN team id 2294 (3rd & 3 at ISU 44) Ivory Kelly-Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the IowSt 45 - IOWA 27, ISU 17 -1.22 98.9% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 45

Started Drive at: IOWA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.28 - 1.50 = -1.22

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.50)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.9%

Win Probability (After): 98.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:53 ESPN team id 2294 (4th & 4 at ISU 45) Timeout IOWA ST, clock 01:53 - IOWA 27, ISU 17 0.00 98.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45

Started Drive at: IOWA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.28 - 0.28 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.28)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.5%

Win Probability (After): 98.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:46 ESPN team id 2294 (4th & 4 at ISU 45) Tory Taylor punt for 45 yds for a touchback - IOWA 27, ISU 17 -1.11 98.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 80

Started Drive at: IOWA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.80 - 0.32 = -1.11

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.32)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.20)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.7%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:37 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 20) Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Eli Sanders for 12 yds to the IowSt 32 for a 1ST down - IOWA 27, ISU 17 0.57 1.3% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 68

Started Drive at: IOWA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 0.57 = 0.57

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.43)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 1:15 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at ISU 32) Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Charlie Kolar for 5 yds to the IowSt 37 - IOWA 27, ISU 17 0.01 1.3% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 63

Started Drive at: IOWA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.00 - 0.99 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.01)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 0:57 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 5 at ISU 37) Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete - IOWA 27, ISU 17 -0.14 1.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: IOWA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.67 - 0.81 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.19)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 0:54 ESPN team id 66 (3rd & 5 at ISU 37) Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete - IOWA 27, ISU 17 -0.68 1.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: IOWA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.13 - 0.55 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.45)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.1%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 0:50 ESPN team id 66 (4th & 5 at ISU 37) Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Jaylin Noel for 10 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST down IOWA Penalty, Personal Foul (Zach VanValkenburg) to the Iowa 38 for a 1ST down - IOWA 27, ISU 17 2.31 1.2% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 38

Started Drive at: IOWA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - -0.12 = 2.31

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.13)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:44 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at IOWA 38) Hunter Dekkers pass incomplete - IOWA 27, ISU 17 -0.17 1.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 38

Started Drive at: IOWA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.96 - 2.13 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.87)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.8%

Win Probability (After): 1.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 0:35 ESPN team id 66 (2nd & 10 at IOWA 38) Hunter Dekkers pass complete to Eli Sanders for 10 yds to the Iowa 28 for a 1ST down - IOWA 27, ISU 17 1.10 1.8% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 28

Started Drive at: IOWA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.04 - 1.94 = 1.10

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.06)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.8%

Win Probability (After): 2.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 0:31 ESPN team id 66 (1st & 10 at IOWA 28) Andrew Mevis 45 yd FG MISSED - IOWA 27, ISU 17 -3.55 2.7% -1.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 65

Started Drive at: IOWA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.72 - 2.83 = -3.55

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.17)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.72)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.7%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:05 ESPN team id 2294 (1st & 10 at IOWA 28) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 27 - IOWA 27, ISU 17 0.24 97.4% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 73

Started Drive at: IOWA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.32 - 0.09 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.09)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: IOWA 27, ISU 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.4%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1