Maryland 16 @ Minnesota 34

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 2.62 | Odds: MINN -4, O/U 53.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 120 ESPN team id 135
Total Plays 6278
Total EPA -1.4218.89
  Offensive EPA -2.1621.3
  Special Teams EPA 2.80-1.69
  Penalty EPA -0.380.56
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA -1.68-1.28
Production ESPN team id 120 ESPN team id 135
Scrimmage Plays 5069
  Yards 268466
  Yards/Play 5.366.75
  EPA -2.1621.30
  EPA/Play -0.040.31
Passes 29 (58%)13 (19%)
  Yards 189125
  Yards/Play 6.529.62
  EPA 2.783.17
  EPA/Play 0.100.24
Rushes 21 (42%)56 (81%)
  Yards 87326
  Yards/Play 4.145.82
  EPA -4.9418.13
  EPA/Play -0.240.32
Rushing ESPN team id 120 ESPN team id 135
Scrimmage Plays 5069
Rushes 21 (42%)56 (81%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 2 (10%)2 (4%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 1 (50%)2 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 5 (24%)4 (7%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 10 (48%)18 (32%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 9 (43%)32 (57%)
OL Line Yards 34.3137.5
  Per Carry 1.632.46
Highlight Yards 22.592.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 2.502.89
Explosiveness ESPN team id 120 ESPN team id 135
Total Plays 6278
Scrimmage Plays 5069
Explosive Plays 5 (10%)5 (7%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 4 (14%)1 (8%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 1 (5%)4 (7%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -17.199.66
  EPA/Play -0.380.15
  When Passing -9.45-0.21
    EPA/Play -0.33-0.02
  When Rushing -7.749.87
    EPA/Play -0.390.19
Situational ESPN team id 120 ESPN team id 135
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 20 (40%)40 (58%)
  When Passing 11 (38%)7 (54%)
  When Rushing 9 (43%)33 (59%)
  On Standard Downs 12 (38%)34 (61%)
  On Passing Downs 8 (44%)6 (46%)
  On Early Downs 15 (39%)33 (58%)
  On Late Downs 5 (42%)7 (58%)
  During "Middle 8" 0 (0%)9 (56%)
Early Downs 3857
  First Downs Created 8 (21%)16 (28%)
  EPA -0.1315.15
  EPA/Play 0.000.27
  Passes 22 (58%)9 (16%)
  Rushes 16 (42%)48 (84%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 10 (45%)6 (67%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 5 (31%)27 (56%)
"Middle 8" Plays 016
  EPA 0.004.11
  EPA/play 0.000.26
  Passes 0 (0%)4 (25%)
  Rushes 0 (0%)12 (75%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 0 (0%)3 (75%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 0 (0%)6 (50%)
Drives ESPN team id 120 ESPN team id 135
Total 910
Avg Starting Field Position Own 22Own 29
Plays/Drive 7.189.00
Yards/Drive 44.3655.65
Available Yards % 57%78%
Defensive ESPN team id 120 ESPN team id 135
Scrimmage Plays 6950
Stop Rate 19%46%
Havoc Plays Created 3 (4%)5 (10%)
  Passing 1 (8%)4 (14%)
  Rushing 2 (4%)1 (5%)
TFLs Generated 35
  Passing 14
  Rushing 21
Sacks Generated 0 (0%)2 (7%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 00
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 120 ESPN team id 135
Turnovers 10
  Fumbles 10
  Fumbles Lost 10
  Fumbles Recovered 00
  Interceptions 00
Turnover Margin -11
Expected Turnovers 0.50.5
Expected Turnover Margin 0.00.0
Turnover Luck (pts) -5.05.0
Special Teams ESPN team id 120 ESPN team id 135
Total Plays 12 9
Total EPA 2.8 -1.69
  Field Goal EPA 1.52 -3.18
  Punting EPA 1.31 0.15
  Kickoff Return EPA -0.04 1.33

Maryland [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Taulia Tagovailoa 17/27, 189 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 Scks, 53.7 xQBR 6.52 0.10 2.78 38% 11.0%
Rush attempts
Challen Faamatau 7 carries, 37 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.29 0.14 0.95 57% -6.0%
Peny Boone 3 carries, 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.67 -0.17 -0.50 33% 0.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa 3 carries, 18 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 6.00 -0.75 -2.24 67% -11.0%
Tayon Fleet-Davis 8 carries, 21 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.62 -0.39 -3.15 25% 2.0%
Pass targets
Marcus Fleming 5 catches (6 targets), 62 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.40 0.82 4.94 50% -1.0%
Rakim Jarrett 4 catches (4 targets), 56 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.00 0.76 3.03 50% 4.0%
Brian Cobbs 1 catch (1 target), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 1.48 1.48 100% 0.0%
Tai Felton 1 catch (1 target), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 0.78 0.78 100% 0.0%
DeaJaun McDougle 2 catches (2 targets), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.50 0.34 0.69 50% 1.0%
Darryl Jones 1 catch (3 targets), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.00 0.06 0.17 33% 4.0%
Dino Tomlin 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.34 -0.34 0% 0.0%
Chigoziem Okonkwo 2 catches (4 targets), 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.00 -0.10 -0.40 50% 5.0%
Tayon Fleet-Davis 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.48 -0.48 0% 0.0%
Challen Faamatau 1 catch (1 target), -2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -2.00 -1.16 -1.16 0% 0.0%
Carlos Carriere 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.52 -1.52 0% 0.0%

Minnesota [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Tanner Morgan 8/12, 125 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 67.7 xQBR 10.42 0.27 3.24 58% 9.0%
TEAM 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 70.5 xQBR 0.00 -0.07 -0.07 0% -1.0%
Rush attempts
Ky Thomas 21 carries, 139 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.62 0.32 6.71 57% 7.0%
Mar'Keise Irving 15 carries, 105 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.45 6.68 60% 6.0%
Cole Kramer 5 carries, 30 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.79 3.93 100% 12.0%
TEAM 1 carry, -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.00 0.87 0.87 100% 1.0%
Tanner Morgan 1 carry, 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.18 0.18 100% -1.0%
Bryce Williams 13 carries, 48 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.69 -0.02 -0.24 38% 2.0%
Pass targets
Mar'Keise Irving 1 catch (1 target), 28 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 28.00 1.76 1.76 100% 7.0%
Ko Kieft 1 catch (1 target), 21 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 21.00 1.18 1.18 100% 3.0%
Chris Autman-Bell 4 catches (4 targets), 35 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.75 0.28 1.11 75% 2.0%
Mike Brown-Stephens 1 catch (3 targets), 35 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 35.00 0.28 0.84 33% -1.0%
Brady Boyd 1 catch (1 target), 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.15 0.15 100% 0.0%
Dylan Wright 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.90 -1.80 0% -1.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 13:39 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 8 at MD 47) Taulia Tagovailoa run for 2 yds to the Mary 49 Taulia Tagovailoa fumbled, recovered by Minn Coney Durr - MD 0, MINN 0 -5.03 45.2% -11.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 49

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.06 - 1.97 = -5.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.97)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.06)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.2%

Win Probability (After): 33.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:33 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 10 at MD 37) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Marcus Fleming for 43 yds to the Minn 20 for a 1ST down - MD 3, MINN 17 3.51 10.8% 4.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 20

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.21 - 0.70 = 3.51

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.30)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.8%

Win Probability (After): 15.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 10:10 ESPN team id 135 (3rd & 6 at MD 39) Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mike Brown-Stephens for 35 yds to the Mary 4 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 17 3.39 83.8% 5.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 4

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.23 - 2.84 = 3.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.84)

Score Difference (End): 7 (13.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.8%

Win Probability (After): 89.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:31 ESPN team id 120 (3rd & 10 at MINN 17) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Marcus Fleming for 17 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - MD 16, MINN 34 3.18 0.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99

Started Drive at: MD 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 2.82 = 3.18

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-21.18)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 16, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 10 (16) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q1 10:30 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 10 at MD 49) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 38 yds to the Minn 13 for a 1ST down - MD 0, MINN 0 2.92 47.0% 5.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 13

Started Drive at: MD 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.06 - 2.15 = 2.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.15)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.0%

Win Probability (After): 52.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:12 ESPN team id 135 (4th & 8 at MD 32) Matthew Trickett 50 yd FG MISSED - MD 0, MINN 0 -2.86 58.7% -7.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 68

Started Drive at: MD 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.77 - 1.10 = -2.86

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.77)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.7%

Win Probability (After): 51.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 4:05 ESPN team id 120 (3rd & 3 at MINN 13) Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 13 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK) - MD 10, MINN 17 2.80 12.6% 10.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.20 = 2.80

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.80)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.6%

Win Probability (After): 22.5%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 0:20 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 5 at MINN 32) Ky Thomas run for 38 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST down - MD 3, MINN 3 2.73 54.3% 6.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 30

Started Drive at: MINN 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.15 - 1.42 = 2.73

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.42)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.3%

Win Probability (After): 60.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:29 ESPN team id 120 (4th & 1 at MD 34) Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Chigoziem Okonkwo - MD 10, MINN 24 -2.73 6.4% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 34

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.43 - -1.71 = -2.73

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.71)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.43)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MD 10, MINN 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 4.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 14:30 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 11 at MD 24) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 21 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST down - MD 0, MINN 0 2.63 38.6% 8.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 55

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - -0.14 = 2.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.6%

Win Probability (After): 46.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 13:39 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 8 at MD 47) Taulia Tagovailoa run for 2 yds to the Mary 49 Taulia Tagovailoa fumbled, recovered by Minn Coney Durr - MD 0, MINN 0 -5.03 45.2% -11.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 49

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.06 - 1.97 = -5.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.97)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.06)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.2%

Win Probability (After): 33.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:05 ESPN team id 120 (3rd & 3 at MINN 13) Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 13 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK) - MD 10, MINN 17 2.80 12.6% 10.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.20 = 2.80

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.80)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.6%

Win Probability (After): 22.5%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:48 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & Goal at MD 2) Cole Kramer 2 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett Kick) - MD 3, MINN 10 1.04 67.2% 9.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: MINN 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.96 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.96)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.2%

Win Probability (After): 76.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:30 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 11 at MD 24) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 21 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST down - MD 0, MINN 0 2.63 38.6% 8.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 55

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - -0.14 = 2.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.6%

Win Probability (After): 46.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:34 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MD 49) Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mar'Keise Irving for 28 yds to the Mary 21 for a 1ST down - MD 3, MINN 0 1.76 53.1% 7.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 21

Started Drive at: MINN 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.55 - 2.79 = 1.76

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.21)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.1%

Win Probability (After): 60.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:12 ESPN team id 135 (4th & 8 at MD 32) Matthew Trickett 50 yd FG MISSED - MD 0, MINN 0 -2.86 58.7% -7.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 68

Started Drive at: MD 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.77 - 1.10 = -2.86

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.77)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.7%

Win Probability (After): 51.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 1:58 ESPN team id 120 (4th & 11 at MD 24) Anthony Pecorella punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Brock Annexstad at the MINNESOTA 24 MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bishop McDonald) to the Minn 14 - MD 3, MINN 3 1.60 40.9% 6.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 86

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.55 - -2.13 = 1.60

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.15)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.55)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MD 3, MINN 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.9%

Win Probability (After): 47.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:28 ESPN team id 120 (4th & 26 at MINN 29) Joseph Petrino 47 Yd Field Goal - MD 3, MINN 0 1.52 44.7% 6.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 29

Started Drive at: MD 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.48 = 1.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.48)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.7%

Win Probability (After): 51.0%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:20 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 5 at MINN 32) Ky Thomas run for 38 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST down - MD 3, MINN 3 2.73 54.3% 6.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 30

Started Drive at: MINN 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.15 - 1.42 = 2.73

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.42)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.3%

Win Probability (After): 60.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:50 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MD 25) Tayon Fleet-Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 24 - MD 0, MINN 0 -1.34 43.3% -5.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 76

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.32 - 1.02 = -1.34

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.3%

Win Probability (After): 37.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 8:28 ESPN team id 120 (4th & 26 at MINN 29) Joseph Petrino 47 Yd Field Goal - MD 3, MINN 0 1.52 44.7% 6.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 29

Started Drive at: MD 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.48 = 1.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.48)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.7%

Win Probability (After): 51.0%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 3:41 ESPN team id 135 (4th & 8 at MD 19) Matthew Trickett 37 yd FG GOOD - MD 3, MINN 3 0.83 52.6% 3.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: MINN 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.17 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.83)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 56.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:48 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & Goal at MD 2) Cole Kramer 2 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett Kick) - MD 3, MINN 10 1.04 67.2% 9.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: MINN 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.96 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.96)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.2%

Win Probability (After): 76.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:20 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 4 at MD 10) Ky Thomas run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) - MD 3, MINN 17 1.89 86.0% 2.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 99

Started Drive at: MINN 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.11 = 1.89

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.11)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.0%

Win Probability (After): 88.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:05 ESPN team id 120 (3rd & 3 at MINN 13) Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 13 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK) - MD 10, MINN 17 2.80 12.6% 10.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.20 = 2.80

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.80)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.6%

Win Probability (After): 22.5%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 9:18 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & Goal at MD 2) Bryce Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) - MD 10, MINN 24 0.85 88.3% 5.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.15 = 0.85

Score Difference (Before): 7 (13.15)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 24

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.3%

Win Probability (After): 93.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:31 ESPN team id 135 (1st & Goal at MD 9) Mar'Keise Irving run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) - MD 10, MINN 31 1.37 97.2% 2.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: MD 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.63 = 1.37

Score Difference (Before): 14 (19.63)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.2%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:58 ESPN team id 135 (4th & 7 at MD 25) Matthew Trickett 43 yd FG GOOD - MD 10, MINN 34 0.82 99.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: MINN 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.18 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): 21 (23.18)

Score Difference (End): 24 (24.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:31 ESPN team id 120 (3rd & 10 at MINN 17) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Marcus Fleming for 17 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - MD 16, MINN 34 3.18 0.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99

Started Drive at: MD 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 2.82 = 3.18

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-21.18)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 16, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 10 (16) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 120 (Kickoff at MD 35) Dragan Kesich kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MD 0, MINN 0 0.00 37.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.4%

Win Probability (After): 37.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:50 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MD 25) Tayon Fleet-Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 24 - MD 0, MINN 0 -1.34 43.3% -5.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 76

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.32 - 1.02 = -1.34

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.3%

Win Probability (After): 37.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:30 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 11 at MD 24) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 21 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST down - MD 0, MINN 0 2.63 38.6% 8.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 55

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - -0.14 = 2.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.6%

Win Probability (After): 46.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:00 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MD 45) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 2 yds to the Mary 47 - MD 0, MINN 0 -0.59 46.3% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 53

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.96 - 2.55 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.55)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.3%

Win Probability (After): 45.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:39 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 8 at MD 47) Taulia Tagovailoa run for 2 yds to the Mary 49 Taulia Tagovailoa fumbled, recovered by Minn Coney Durr - MD 0, MINN 0 -5.03 45.2% -11.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 49

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.06 - 1.97 = -5.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.97)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.06)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.2%

Win Probability (After): 33.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:30 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MD 49) Morgan, Tanner pass incomplete, PENALTY MARYLAND pass interference 15 yards to the MARYLAND34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MINNESOTA. - MD 0, MINN 0 0.87 66.9% 1.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 34

Started Drive at: MD 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.89 - 3.02 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.9%

Win Probability (After): 68.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:20 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MD 34) Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the Mary 31 - MD 0, MINN 0 -0.25 68.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 31

Started Drive at: MD 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.63 - 3.87 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.87)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.3%

Win Probability (After): 68.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:10 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 7 at MD 31) Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 32 - MD 0, MINN 0 -1.04 68.4% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 32

Started Drive at: MD 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 3.61 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.61)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.4%

Win Probability (After): 66.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:00 ESPN team id 135 (3rd & 8 at MD 32) Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Mike Brown-Stephens - MD 0, MINN 0 -1.43 66.0% -3.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 32

Started Drive at: MD 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 2.57 = -1.43

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.0%

Win Probability (After): 62.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:12 ESPN team id 135 (4th & 8 at MD 32) Matthew Trickett 50 yd FG MISSED - MD 0, MINN 0 -2.86 58.7% -7.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 68

Started Drive at: MD 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.77 - 1.10 = -2.86

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.77)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.7%

Win Probability (After): 51.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 11:51 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MD 32) Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 2 yds to the Mary 34 - MD 0, MINN 0 -0.42 45.8% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 66

Started Drive at: MD 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.24 - 1.66 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.66)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.8%

Win Probability (After): 46.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:40 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 8 at MD 34) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 15 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST down - MD 0, MINN 0 1.44 44.4% 4.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 51

Started Drive at: MD 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.66 - 1.22 = 1.44

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.22)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.4%

Win Probability (After): 49.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:30 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MD 49) Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Marcus Fleming - MD 0, MINN 0 -0.73 48.5% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 51

Started Drive at: MD 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.04 - 2.77 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 47.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:30 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 10 at MD 49) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 38 yds to the Minn 13 for a 1ST down - MD 0, MINN 0 2.92 47.0% 5.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 13

Started Drive at: MD 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.06 - 2.15 = 2.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.15)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.0%

Win Probability (After): 52.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:00 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MINN 13) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Marcus Fleming for no gain to the Minn 13 - MD 0, MINN 0 -0.58 52.1% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 13

Started Drive at: MD 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.47 - 5.05 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.1%

Win Probability (After): 50.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:30 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 10 at MINN 13) Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 2 yds to the Minn 11 - MD 0, MINN 0 -0.67 50.6% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 11

Started Drive at: MD 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.78 - 4.46 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.46)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.6%

Win Probability (After): 49.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:00 ESPN team id 120 (3rd & 8 at MINN 11) MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Tayon Fleet-Davis) to the Minn 26 - MD 0, MINN 0 -1.31 50.0% -2.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 26

Started Drive at: MD 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 3.77 = -1.31

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.0%

Win Probability (After): 47.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:39 ESPN team id 120 (3rd & 23 at MINN 26) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Marcus Fleming for a loss of 3 yards to the Minn 29 - MD 0, MINN 0 -0.76 48.1% -3.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 29

Started Drive at: MD 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.65 - 2.40 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.40)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 0, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.1%

Win Probability (After): 44.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:28 ESPN team id 120 (4th & 26 at MINN 29) Joseph Petrino 47 Yd Field Goal - MD 3, MINN 0 1.52 44.7% 6.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 29

Started Drive at: MD 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.48 = 1.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.48)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.7%

Win Probability (After): 51.0%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:28 ESPN team id 135 (Kickoff at MINN 35) Joseph Petrino kickoff for 56 yds , Mar'Keise Irving return for 20 yds to the Minn 29 - MD 3, MINN 0 0.51 50.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 71

Started Drive at: MINN 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.19 - 0.69 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.31)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.5%

Win Probability (After): 50.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:15 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MINN 29) Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Dylan Wright - MD 3, MINN 0 -0.82 50.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: MINN 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.41 - 1.23 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.77)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.1%

Win Probability (After): 49.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:09 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 10 at MINN 29) Bryce Williams run for 10 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST down - MD 3, MINN 0 1.40 48.6% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 61

Started Drive at: MINN 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 0.43 = 1.40

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.57)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.6%

Win Probability (After): 50.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:16 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MINN 39) Tanner Morgan run for 5 yds to the Minn 44 - MD 3, MINN 0 0.18 52.3% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 56

Started Drive at: MINN 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - 1.84 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.16)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.3%

Win Probability (After): 51.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:50 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 5 at MINN 44) Bryce Williams run for 2 yds to the Minn 46 - MD 3, MINN 0 -0.59 53.1% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 54

Started Drive at: MINN 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.44 - 2.03 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.97)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.1%

Win Probability (After): 51.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:16 ESPN team id 135 (3rd & 3 at MINN 46) Ky Thomas run for 5 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST down - MD 3, MINN 0 1.37 51.8% 2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 49

Started Drive at: MINN 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.79 - 1.42 = 1.37

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.58)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.8%

Win Probability (After): 54.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:34 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MD 49) Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mar'Keise Irving for 28 yds to the Mary 21 for a 1ST down - MD 3, MINN 0 1.76 53.1% 7.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 21

Started Drive at: MINN 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.55 - 2.79 = 1.76

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.21)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.1%

Win Probability (After): 60.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:00 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MD 21) Mar'Keise Irving run for no gain to the Mary 21 - MD 3, MINN 0 -0.55 59.8% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: MINN 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.99 - 4.54 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.54)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.8%

Win Probability (After): 58.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:16 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 10 at MD 21) Bryce Williams run for 2 yds to the Mary 19 - MD 3, MINN 0 -0.71 59.7% -3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 19

Started Drive at: MINN 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.29 - 4.00 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.00)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.7%

Win Probability (After): 56.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:46 ESPN team id 135 (3rd & 8 at MD 19) Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Mike Brown-Stephens - MD 3, MINN 0 -1.12 55.8% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: MINN 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 3.30 = -1.12

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.30)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.8%

Win Probability (After): 53.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:41 ESPN team id 135 (4th & 8 at MD 19) Matthew Trickett 37 yd FG GOOD - MD 3, MINN 3 0.83 52.6% 3.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: MINN 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.17 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.83)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 56.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 3:41 ESPN team id 120 (Kickoff at MD 35) Dragan Kesich kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MD 3, MINN 3 0.00 45.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 1.07 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.6%

Win Probability (After): 45.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:20 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MD 25) Challen Faamatau run for 4 yds to the Mary 29 - MD 3, MINN 3 -0.05 46.9% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.00 - 1.05 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.9%

Win Probability (After): 45.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:00 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 6 at MD 29) Challen Faamatau run for no gain to the Mary 29 - MD 3, MINN 3 -1.06 47.6% -4.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - 1.02 = -1.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.6%

Win Probability (After): 42.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:16 ESPN team id 120 (3rd & 6 at MD 29) MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Aric Harris) to the Mary 24 - MD 3, MINN 3 -1.07 44.9% -3.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 76

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.09 - -0.02 = -1.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.9%

Win Probability (After): 41.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:05 ESPN team id 120 (3rd & 11 at MD 24) Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Chigoziem Okonkwo - MD 3, MINN 3 -1.06 42.5% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.15 - -1.09 = -1.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.09)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.5%

Win Probability (After): 41.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:58 ESPN team id 120 (4th & 11 at MD 24) Anthony Pecorella punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Brock Annexstad at the MINNESOTA 24 MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bishop McDonald) to the Minn 14 - MD 3, MINN 3 1.60 40.9% 6.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 86

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.55 - -2.13 = 1.60

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.15)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.55)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MD 3, MINN 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.9%

Win Probability (After): 47.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 1:36 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MINN 14) Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 13 yds to the Minn 27 for a 1ST down - MD 3, MINN 3 0.82 52.4% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 73

Started Drive at: MINN 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.44 - 0.62 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.4%

Win Probability (After): 54.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:00 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MINN 27) Ky Thomas run for 5 yds to the Minn 32 - MD 3, MINN 3 -0.08 55.8% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 68

Started Drive at: MINN 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.42 - 1.50 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.50)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.8%

Win Probability (After): 53.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:20 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 5 at MINN 32) Ky Thomas run for 38 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST down - MD 3, MINN 3 2.73 54.3% 6.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 30

Started Drive at: MINN 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.15 - 1.42 = 2.73

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.42)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.3%

Win Probability (After): 60.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MD 30) Bryce Williams run for 4 yds to the Mary 26 - MD 3, MINN 3 -0.06 60.1% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 26

Started Drive at: MINN 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.07 - 4.13 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.1%

Win Probability (After): 60.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:34 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 6 at MD 26) Mar'Keise Irving run for 21 yds to the Mary 5 for a 1ST down - MD 3, MINN 3 1.82 64.9% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 5

Started Drive at: MINN 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.88 - 4.06 = 1.82

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 81 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.9%

Win Probability (After): 66.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:24 ESPN team id 135 (1st & Goal at MD 5) Timeout MINNESOTA, clock 14:24 - MD 3, MINN 3 0.00 68.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 5

Started Drive at: MINN 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.88 - 5.88 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.88)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 81 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.6%

Win Probability (After): 68.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:11 ESPN team id 135 (1st & Goal at MD 5) Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the Mary 2 - MD 3, MINN 3 0.10 68.2% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 2

Started Drive at: MINN 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.98 - 5.87 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.87)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.2%

Win Probability (After): 69.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:48 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & Goal at MD 2) Cole Kramer 2 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett Kick) - MD 3, MINN 10 1.04 67.2% 9.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: MINN 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.96 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.96)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.2%

Win Probability (After): 76.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:48 ESPN team id 120 (Kickoff at MD 35) Dragan Kesich kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MD 3, MINN 10 0.00 27.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.12 - 0.12 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.88)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.6%

Win Probability (After): 27.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:41 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MD 25) Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Darryl Jones - MD 3, MINN 10 -0.57 27.6% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.44 - 0.13 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.87)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.6%

Win Probability (After): 27.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:22 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 10 at MD 25) Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 1 yd to the Mary 26 - MD 3, MINN 10 -0.84 26.9% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.29 - -0.45 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.45)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 25.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:30 ESPN team id 120 (3rd & 9 at MD 26) Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Thomas Rush for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 24 - MD 3, MINN 10 -1.55 23.4% -1.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 76

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.77 - -1.22 = -1.55

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.22)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.4%

Win Probability (After): 22.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:01 ESPN team id 120 (4th & 11 at MD 24) Colton Spangler punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Brock Annexstad at the MINNESOTA 27 MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the Minn 32 - MD 3, MINN 10 0.29 18.8% 2.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 68

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.48 - -2.58 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.77)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.48)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MD 3, MINN 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.8%

Win Probability (After): 21.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:40 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MINN 32) Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 12 yds to the Minn 44 for a 1ST down - MD 3, MINN 10 0.76 78.1% 1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 56

Started Drive at: MINN 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.24 - 2.48 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.48)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.1%

Win Probability (After): 80.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:30 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MINN 44) Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Minn 46 - MD 3, MINN 10 -0.52 80.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 54

Started Drive at: MINN 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.68 - 3.20 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.20)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.3%

Win Probability (After): 79.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:20 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 8 at MINN 46) Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the Minn 49 - MD 3, MINN 10 -0.46 79.7% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 51

Started Drive at: MINN 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 2.73 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.73)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.7%

Win Probability (After): 78.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:00 ESPN team id 135 (3rd & 5 at MINN 49) Mar'Keise Irving run for 14 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST down - MD 3, MINN 10 1.82 79.9% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 37

Started Drive at: MINN 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.05 - 2.24 = 1.82

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.24)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.9%

Win Probability (After): 81.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:14 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MD 37) Mar'Keise Irving run for 6 yds to the Mary 31 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Personal Foul (Ami Finau) to the Mary 16 for a 1ST down - MD 3, MINN 10 1.15 82.3% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 16

Started Drive at: MINN 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.20 - 4.02 = 1.15

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.05)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.3%

Win Probability (After): 83.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:30 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MD 16) Ky Thomas run for 6 yds to the Mary 10 - MD 3, MINN 10 0.07 84.6% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 10

Started Drive at: MINN 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.24 - 5.17 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.17)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.6%

Win Probability (After): 84.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:20 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 4 at MD 10) Ky Thomas run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) - MD 3, MINN 17 1.89 86.0% 2.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 99

Started Drive at: MINN 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.11 = 1.89

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.11)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.0%

Win Probability (After): 88.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:20 ESPN team id 120 (Kickoff at MD 35) Dragan Kesich kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MD 3, MINN 17 0.00 10.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.12 - -0.12 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.12)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.9%

Win Probability (After): 10.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:00 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MD 25) Peny Boone run for 7 yds to the Mary 32 - MD 3, MINN 17 0.31 11.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 68

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.31 - 0.00 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.00)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.1%

Win Probability (After): 11.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:15 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 3 at MD 32) Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the Mary 33 - MD 3, MINN 17 -0.71 11.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 67

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - 0.52 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.48)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.1%

Win Probability (After): 10.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:53 ESPN team id 120 (3rd & 2 at MD 33) Taulia Tagovailoa run for 4 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST down - MD 3, MINN 17 1.19 10.9% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 63

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - -0.12 = 1.19

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.12)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.9%

Win Probability (After): 11.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:15 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MD 37) Challen Faamatau run for no gain to the Mary 37 - MD 3, MINN 17 -0.79 11.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - 1.25 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.75)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.4%

Win Probability (After): 11.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:33 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 10 at MD 37) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Marcus Fleming for 43 yds to the Minn 20 for a 1ST down - MD 3, MINN 17 3.51 10.8% 4.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 20

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.21 - 0.70 = 3.51

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.30)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.8%

Win Probability (After): 15.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:15 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MINN 20) Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the Minn 17 - MD 3, MINN 17 -0.09 14.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 17

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 4.18 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.82)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.4%

Win Probability (After): 14.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:32 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 7 at MINN 17) Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 4 yds to the Minn 13 - MD 3, MINN 17 0.06 12.9% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 13

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.20 - 4.14 = 0.06

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.86)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 3, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.9%

Win Probability (After): 14.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:05 ESPN team id 120 (3rd & 3 at MINN 13) Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 13 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK) - MD 10, MINN 17 2.80 12.6% 10.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.20 = 2.80

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.80)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.6%

Win Probability (After): 22.5%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:05 ESPN team id 135 (Kickoff at MINN 35) Joseph Petrino kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MD 10, MINN 17 0.00 78.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.11 - 1.11 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.11)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.1%

Win Probability (After): 78.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:37 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MINN 25) Tanner Morgan pass complete to Ko Kieft for 21 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 17 1.18 78.1% 2.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 54

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 0.99 = 1.18

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.99)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.1%

Win Probability (After): 80.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:57 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MINN 46) Ky Thomas run for 1 yd to the Minn 47 - MD 10, MINN 17 -0.44 80.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 53

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.55 - 1.99 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.99)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.6%

Win Probability (After): 80.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:30 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 9 at MINN 47) MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sam Schlueter) to the Minn 37 - MD 10, MINN 17 -0.59 80.2% -2.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 63

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - 1.50 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.50)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.2%

Win Probability (After): 78.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:55 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 19 at MINN 37) Bryce Williams run for 2 yds to the Minn 39 - MD 10, MINN 17 -0.37 78.7% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 61

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.47 - 0.84 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.84)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.7%

Win Probability (After): 77.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:30 ESPN team id 135 (3rd & 17 at MINN 39) MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Holding (Tarheeb Still) to the Minn 49 - MD 10, MINN 17 0.70 78.1% 1.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 51

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.05 - 0.35 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.35)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.1%

Win Probability (After): 79.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:30 ESPN team id 135 (3rd & 7 at MINN 49) Timeout MARYLAND, clock 01:30 - MD 10, MINN 17 0.00 79.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 51

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.05 - 1.05 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.05)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:22 ESPN team id 135 (3rd & 7 at MINN 49) Ky Thomas run for 18 yds to the Mary 33 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 17 1.77 80.3% 3.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 33

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.78 - 1.01 = 1.77

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.01)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.3%

Win Probability (After): 84.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:09 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MD 33) Ky Thomas run for 7 yds to the Mary 26 - MD 10, MINN 17 0.56 84.9% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 26

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.42 - 2.86 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.86)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.9%

Win Probability (After): 86.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:09 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 3 at MD 26) Timeout MINNESOTA, clock 01:09 - MD 10, MINN 17 0.00 86.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.42 - 3.42 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.42)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.8%

Win Probability (After): 86.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:55 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 3 at MD 26) Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Mary 24 - MD 10, MINN 17 -0.18 86.5% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 24

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.27 - 3.44 = -0.18

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.44)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.5%

Win Probability (After): 85.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:40 ESPN team id 135 (3rd & 1 at MD 24) Ky Thomas run for 5 yds to the Mary 19 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 17 0.45 86.0% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 19

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.72 - 3.27 = 0.45

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.27)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.0%

Win Probability (After): 87.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:32 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MD 19) Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the Mary 16 - MD 10, MINN 17 0.22 87.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 16

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.82 - 3.60 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.60)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.6%

Win Probability (After): 87.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:32 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 7 at MD 16) Timeout MINNESOTA, clock 00:32 - MD 10, MINN 17 0.00 87.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.82 - 3.82 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.82)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.8%

Win Probability (After): 87.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:07 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 7 at MD 16) Ky Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 20 - MD 10, MINN 17 -0.61 87.8% -4.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 20

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.44 - 3.05 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.05)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.8%

Win Probability (After): 83.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:04 ESPN team id 135 (3rd & 11 at MD 20) TEAM pass incomplete - MD 10, MINN 17 -0.07 82.1% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 2.00 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.00)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.1%

Win Probability (After): 81.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:04 ESPN team id 135 (4th & 11 at MD 20) Timeout MARYLAND, clock 00:04 - MD 10, MINN 17 0.00 81.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 1.93 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.93)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.2%

Win Probability (After): 81.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 135 (4th & 11 at MD 20) Matthew Trickett 38 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Tarheeb Still Ahmad McCullough return for 6 yds to the Minn 32 - MD 10, MINN 17 -1.97 81.2% -0.5%

Play Type: Blocked Field Goal

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 32

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.41 - 1.97 = -1.97

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.97)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.59)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 135 (Kickoff at MINN 35) Joseph Petrino kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MD 10, MINN 17 0.00 80.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.01 - 2.01 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.01)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.7%

Win Probability (After): 80.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:24 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MINN 25) Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brady Boyd for 6 yds to the Minn 31 - MD 10, MINN 17 0.15 81.9% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.28 - 2.13 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.13)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.9%

Win Probability (After): 81.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:00 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 4 at MINN 31) Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the Minn 34 - MD 10, MINN 17 -0.21 83.7% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 66

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.21 - 2.42 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.42)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.7%

Win Probability (After): 81.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:21 ESPN team id 135 (3rd & 1 at MINN 34) Cole Kramer run for 2 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 17 0.70 83.0% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 64

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.89 - 2.18 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.18)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.0%

Win Probability (After): 85.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:42 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MINN 36) Bryce Williams run for 5 yds to the Minn 41 - MD 10, MINN 17 -0.07 84.6% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 59

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.84 - 2.91 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.91)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.6%

Win Probability (After): 85.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:11 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 5 at MINN 41) Mar'Keise Irving run for 5 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 17 0.46 85.2% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 54

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.39 - 2.92 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.92)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.2%

Win Probability (After): 85.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:30 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MINN 46) Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 11 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 17 0.57 85.8% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 43

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 3.35 = 0.57

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.35)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.8%

Win Probability (After): 86.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:48 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MD 43) Mar'Keise Irving run for 4 yds to the Mary 39 - MD 10, MINN 17 -0.16 85.5% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 39

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.76 - 3.93 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.93)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.5%

Win Probability (After): 86.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:18 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 6 at MD 39) Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Dylan Wright - MD 10, MINN 17 -0.98 85.6% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.83 - 3.81 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.81)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.6%

Win Probability (After): 84.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:10 ESPN team id 135 (3rd & 6 at MD 39) Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mike Brown-Stephens for 35 yds to the Mary 4 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 17 3.39 83.8% 5.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 4

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.23 - 2.84 = 3.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.84)

Score Difference (End): 7 (13.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.8%

Win Probability (After): 89.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:45 ESPN team id 135 (1st & Goal at MD 4) Bryce Williams run for 2 yds to the Mary 2 - MD 10, MINN 17 -0.09 88.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 2

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.16 - 6.24 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): 7 (13.24)

Score Difference (End): 7 (13.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.5%

Win Probability (After): 88.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:18 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & Goal at MD 2) Bryce Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) - MD 10, MINN 24 0.85 88.3% 5.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: MINN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.15 = 0.85

Score Difference (Before): 7 (13.15)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 24

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.3%

Win Probability (After): 93.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:18 ESPN team id 120 (Kickoff at MD 35) Dragan Kesich kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MD 10, MINN 24 0.00 9.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.37 - -0.37 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.37)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.0%

Win Probability (After): 9.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:50 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MD 25) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to DeaJaun McDougle for 4 yds to the Mary 29 - MD 10, MINN 24 -0.05 8.7% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.53 - -0.47 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.47)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.7%

Win Probability (After): 8.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:22 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 6 at MD 29) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to DeaJaun McDougle for 5 yds to the Mary 34 - MD 10, MINN 24 0.74 8.3% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 66

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.04 - -0.70 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.70)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.3%

Win Probability (After): 8.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:00 ESPN team id 120 (3rd & 1 at MD 34) Tayon Fleet-Davis run for no gain to the Mary 34 - MD 10, MINN 24 -1.70 8.3% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.71 - -0.01 = -1.70

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.01)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.3%

Win Probability (After): 7.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:29 ESPN team id 120 (4th & 1 at MD 34) Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Chigoziem Okonkwo - MD 10, MINN 24 -2.73 6.4% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 34

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.43 - -1.71 = -2.73

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.71)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.43)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MD 10, MINN 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 4.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:15 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MD 34) Mar'Keise Irving run for 4 yds to the Mary 30 - MD 10, MINN 24 -0.24 96.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 30

Started Drive at: MD 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.22 - 4.45 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.45)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.0%

Win Probability (After): 95.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:44 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 6 at MD 30) Mar'Keise Irving run for 8 yds to the Mary 22 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 24 0.78 96.0% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 22

Started Drive at: MD 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.03 - 4.25 = 0.78

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.25)

Score Difference (End): 14 (19.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.0%

Win Probability (After): 96.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:11 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MD 22) Ky Thomas run for 13 yds to the Mary 9 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 24 0.55 96.8% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 9

Started Drive at: MD 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.59 - 5.04 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): 14 (19.04)

Score Difference (End): 14 (19.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:31 ESPN team id 135 (1st & Goal at MD 9) Mar'Keise Irving run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) - MD 10, MINN 31 1.37 97.2% 2.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: MD 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.63 = 1.37

Score Difference (Before): 14 (19.63)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.2%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:25 ESPN team id 120 (Kickoff at MD 35) Dragan Kesich kickoff for 53 yds , Rakim Jarrett return for 12 yds to the Mary 24 - MD 10, MINN 31 -0.04 1.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 76

Started Drive at: MD 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.38 - -1.34 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-22.34)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-22.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:57 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MD 24) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 11 yds to the Mary 35 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 31 0.93 1.2% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 65

Started Drive at: MD 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.38 - -1.31 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-22.31)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-21.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:49 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MD 35) Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Darryl Jones - MD 10, MINN 31 -0.70 1.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: MD 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.03 - -0.32 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.32)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-22.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:24 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 10 at MD 35) Taulia Tagovailoa run for 12 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 31 1.60 1.2% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 53

Started Drive at: MD 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - -1.07 = 1.60

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-22.07)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-20.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:00 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MD 47) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Marcus Fleming for 5 yds to the Minn 48 - MD 10, MINN 31 0.31 1.2% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 48

Started Drive at: MD 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - 0.49 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.51)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-20.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:26 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 5 at MINN 48) Tayon Fleet-Davis run for no gain to the Minn 48 - MD 10, MINN 31 -1.04 1.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48

Started Drive at: MD 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.22 - 0.82 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.18)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-21.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:00 ESPN team id 120 (3rd & 5 at MINN 48) MARYLAND Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Jaelyn Duncan) to the Mary 47 - MD 10, MINN 31 -0.85 1.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 53

Started Drive at: MD 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.06 - -0.22 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.22)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-22.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:53 ESPN team id 120 (3rd & 10 at MD 47) Timeout MINNESOTA, clock 02:53 - MD 10, MINN 31 0.00 1.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: MD 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.06 - -1.06 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-22.06)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-22.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:48 ESPN team id 120 (3rd & 10 at MD 47) Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Carlos Carriere - MD 10, MINN 31 -1.52 1.0% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: MD 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.60 - -1.08 = -1.52

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-22.08)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-23.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:40 ESPN team id 120 (4th & 10 at MD 47) Anthony Pecorella punt for 53 yds for a touchback - MD 10, MINN 31 -0.79 0.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 80

Started Drive at: MD 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.38 - -2.59 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-23.59)

Score Difference (End): 21 (24.38)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 2:04 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MINN 20) Ky Thomas run for 8 yds to the Minn 28 - MD 10, MINN 31 0.12 99.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 72

Started Drive at: MINN 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.60 - 3.48 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): 21 (24.48)

Score Difference (End): 21 (24.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:41 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 2 at MINN 28) Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 31 0.21 99.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 69

Started Drive at: MINN 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.94 - 3.73 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): 21 (24.73)

Score Difference (End): 21 (24.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:52 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MINN 31) Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Minn 33 - MD 10, MINN 31 -0.62 99.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 67

Started Drive at: MINN 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 3.96 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 21 (24.96)

Score Difference (End): 21 (24.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:15 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 8 at MINN 33) Mar'Keise Irving run for 10 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 31 0.90 99.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 57

Started Drive at: MINN 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.27 - 3.37 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): 21 (24.37)

Score Difference (End): 21 (25.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:32 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MINN 43) Mar'Keise Irving run for 4 yds to the Minn 47 - MD 10, MINN 31 -0.41 99.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 53

Started Drive at: MINN 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.86 - 4.27 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): 21 (25.27)

Score Difference (End): 21 (24.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:06 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 6 at MINN 47) Mar'Keise Irving run for 2 yds to the Minn 49 - MD 10, MINN 31 -0.37 99.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 51

Started Drive at: MINN 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.43 - 3.80 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): 21 (24.80)

Score Difference (End): 21 (24.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:16 ESPN team id 135 (3rd & 4 at MINN 49) Ky Thomas run for 7 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 31 1.24 99.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 44

Started Drive at: MINN 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.58 - 3.33 = 1.24

Score Difference (Before): 21 (24.33)

Score Difference (End): 21 (25.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:38 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MD 44) Bryce Williams run for 6 yds to the Mary 38 - MD 10, MINN 31 0.06 99.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 38

Started Drive at: MINN 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.54 - 4.48 = 0.06

Score Difference (Before): 21 (25.48)

Score Difference (End): 21 (25.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:06 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 4 at MD 38) Cole Kramer run for 10 yds to the Mary 28 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 31 0.75 99.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 28

Started Drive at: MINN 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.15 - 4.40 = 0.75

Score Difference (Before): 21 (25.40)

Score Difference (End): 21 (26.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:17 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MD 28) Bryce Williams run for 6 yds to the Mary 22 - MD 10, MINN 31 0.10 99.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 22

Started Drive at: MINN 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.17 - 5.07 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): 21 (26.07)

Score Difference (End): 21 (26.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:48 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 4 at MD 22) MINNESOTA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Mar'Keise Irving) to the Mary 37 - MD 10, MINN 31 -1.70 99.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 37

Started Drive at: MINN 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.43 - 5.13 = -1.70

Score Difference (Before): 21 (26.13)

Score Difference (End): 21 (24.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:13 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 19 at MD 37) Mar'Keise Irving run for 10 yds to the Mary 27 - MD 10, MINN 31 0.42 99.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 27

Started Drive at: MINN 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.73 - 3.31 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): 21 (24.31)

Score Difference (End): 21 (24.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:38 ESPN team id 135 (3rd & 9 at MD 27) Ky Thomas run for 2 yds to the Mary 25 - MD 10, MINN 31 -1.34 99.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 25

Started Drive at: MINN 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 3.61 = -1.34

Score Difference (Before): 21 (24.61)

Score Difference (End): 21 (23.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:04 ESPN team id 135 (4th & 7 at MD 25) Timeout MINNESOTA, clock 09:04 - MD 10, MINN 31 0.00 99.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: MINN 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 2.27 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 21 (23.27)

Score Difference (End): 21 (23.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 31

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 8:58 ESPN team id 135 (4th & 7 at MD 25) Matthew Trickett 43 yd FG GOOD - MD 10, MINN 34 0.82 99.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: MINN 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.18 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): 21 (23.18)

Score Difference (End): 24 (24.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 31 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 8:58 ESPN team id 120 (Kickoff at MD 35) Dragan Kesich kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MD 10, MINN 34 0.00 0.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.30 - -0.30 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-24.30)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-24.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 8:54 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MD 25) Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Tayon Fleet-Davis - MD 10, MINN 34 -0.48 0.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.76 - -0.28 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-24.28)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-24.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 8:30 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 10 at MD 25) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 5 yds to the Mary 30 - MD 10, MINN 34 -0.22 0.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.90 - -0.68 = -0.22

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-24.68)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-24.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 7:50 ESPN team id 120 (3rd & 5 at MD 30) Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Coney Durr for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 24 - MD 10, MINN 34 -1.57 0.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 76

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.34 - -0.77 = -1.57

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-24.77)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-26.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 7:28 ESPN team id 120 (4th & 11 at MD 24) Colton Spangler punt for 50 yds, downed at the Minn 26 - MD 10, MINN 34 0.21 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 74

Started Drive at: MD 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.93 - -2.14 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-26.14)

Score Difference (End): 24 (25.93)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 7:08 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MINN 26) Mar'Keise Irving run for 8 yds to the Minn 34 - MD 10, MINN 34 0.17 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 66

Started Drive at: MINN 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.16 - 1.99 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): 24 (25.99)

Score Difference (End): 24 (26.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:22 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 2 at MINN 34) Mar'Keise Irving run for no gain to the Minn 34 - MD 10, MINN 34 -0.49 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: MINN 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 1.97 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 24 (25.97)

Score Difference (End): 24 (25.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:42 ESPN team id 135 (3rd & 2 at MINN 34) Bryce Williams run for 1 yd to the Minn 35 - MD 10, MINN 34 -0.63 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 65

Started Drive at: MINN 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.33 - 0.95 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 24 (24.95)

Score Difference (End): 24 (24.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:09 ESPN team id 135 (4th & 1 at MINN 35) Timeout MINNESOTA, clock 05:09 - MD 10, MINN 34 0.00 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: MINN 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.33 - 0.33 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 24 (24.33)

Score Difference (End): 24 (24.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:56 ESPN team id 135 (4th & 1 at MINN 35) Mark Crawford punt for 47 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for no gain to the Mary 35 MARYLAND Penalty, Personal Foul (Beau Brade) to the Mary 9 - MD 10, MINN 34 0.15 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 91

Started Drive at: MINN 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.31 - 0.21 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): 24 (24.16)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-24.31)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:44 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MD 9) Challen Faamatau run for 18 yds to the Mary 27 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 34 0.79 0.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 73

Started Drive at: MD 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.49 - -0.30 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-24.30)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-23.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 4:36 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MD 27) Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete - MD 10, MINN 34 -0.57 0.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: MD 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.51 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-23.49)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-24.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 4:20 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 10 at MD 27) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 9 yds to the Mary 36 - MD 10, MINN 34 0.78 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 64

Started Drive at: MD 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.77 - -0.01 = 0.78

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-24.01)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-23.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 4:00 ESPN team id 120 (3rd & 1 at MD 36) Challen Faamatau run for 6 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 34 0.76 0.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 58

Started Drive at: MD 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 0.72 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-23.28)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-22.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 3:40 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MD 42) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 9 yds to the Minn 49 - MD 10, MINN 34 0.76 0.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 49

Started Drive at: MD 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.22 - 1.46 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-22.54)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-21.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 3:15 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 1 at MINN 49) Challen Faamatau run for 6 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 34 0.37 0.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 43

Started Drive at: MD 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 2.05 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-21.95)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-21.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 3:05 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MINN 43) MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Phillip Howard) to the Minn 28 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 34 1.17 0.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 28

Started Drive at: MD 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 2.17 = 1.17

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-21.83)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-20.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 2:37 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MINN 28) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Challen Faamatau for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 30 - MD 10, MINN 34 -1.16 0.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 30

Started Drive at: MD 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.10 - 3.26 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-20.74)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-21.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 2:15 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 12 at MINN 30) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 10 yds to the Minn 20 - MD 10, MINN 34 1.48 0.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 20

Started Drive at: MD 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.43 - 1.95 = 1.48

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-22.05)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-20.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 1:59 ESPN team id 120 (3rd & 2 at MINN 20) Challen Faamatau run for 3 yds to the Minn 17 for a 1ST down - MD 10, MINN 34 0.93 0.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 17

Started Drive at: MD 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.24 - 3.31 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-20.69)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-19.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 1:47 ESPN team id 120 (1st & 10 at MINN 17) Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Dino Tomlin - MD 10, MINN 34 -0.34 0.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: MD 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.67 - 4.01 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-19.99)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-20.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 1:37 ESPN team id 120 (2nd & 10 at MINN 17) Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete - MD 10, MINN 34 -0.70 0.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: MD 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 3.52 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-20.48)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-21.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 10, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 1:31 ESPN team id 120 (3rd & 10 at MINN 17) Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Marcus Fleming for 17 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - MD 16, MINN 34 3.18 0.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99

Started Drive at: MD 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 2.82 = 3.18

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-21.18)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 16, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 10 (16) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 1:29 ESPN team id 135 (Kickoff at MINN 35) Joseph Petrino on-side kick recovered by MINNESOTA at the Mary 47 , Chris Autman-Bell return for 1 yd to the Mary 47 - MD 16, MINN 34 0.83 99.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 47

Started Drive at: MD 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.69 - 0.86 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): 18 (18.86)

Score Difference (End): 18 (19.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 16, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:05 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MD 47) Cole Kramer run for 10 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST down - MD 16, MINN 34 0.65 99.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 37

Started Drive at: MD 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 1.52 = 0.65

Score Difference (Before): 18 (19.52)

Score Difference (End): 18 (20.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 16, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:23 ESPN team id 135 (1st & 10 at MD 37) Cole Kramer run for 6 yds to the Mary 31 - MD 16, MINN 34 0.79 99.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 31

Started Drive at: MD 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 1.68 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 18 (19.68)

Score Difference (End): 18 (20.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 16, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 135 (2nd & 4 at MD 31) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 32 - MD 16, MINN 34 0.87 99.3% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 32

Started Drive at: MD 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.88 - 1.00 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): 18 (19.00)

Score Difference (End): 18 (19.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MD 16, MINN 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3