Michigan 33 @ Michigan State 37

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 8.56 | Odds: MICH -4, O/U 50.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

Download Chart

Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 130 ESPN team id 127
Total Plays 9278
Total EPA 6.813.13
  Offensive EPA 8.527.06
  Special Teams EPA 0.81-2.22
  Penalty EPA -2.52-1.71
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 0.000.00
Production ESPN team id 130 ESPN team id 127
Scrimmage Plays 7862
  Yards 542398
  Yards/Play 6.956.42
  EPA 8.527.06
  EPA/Play 0.110.11
Passes 45 (58%)33 (53%)
  Yards 403196
  Yards/Play 8.965.94
  EPA 20.56-7.60
  EPA/Play 0.46-0.23
Rushes 33 (42%)29 (47%)
  Yards 139216
  Yards/Play 4.217.45
  EPA -12.0414.66
  EPA/Play -0.360.51
Rushing ESPN team id 130 ESPN team id 127
Scrimmage Plays 7862
Rushes 33 (42%)29 (47%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 1 (3%)1 (3%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 0 (0%)0 (0%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 5 (15%)5 (17%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 16 (48%)13 (45%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 13 (39%)13 (45%)
OL Line Yards 48.141.4
  Per Carry 1.461.43
Highlight Yards 42118
  Per Rush Opportunity 3.239.08
Explosiveness ESPN team id 130 ESPN team id 127
Total Plays 9278
Scrimmage Plays 7862
Explosive Plays 6 (8%)6 (10%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 6 (13%)2 (6%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 0 (0%)4 (14%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -16.52-17.09
  EPA/Play -0.23-0.31
  When Passing -4.48-16.24
    EPA/Play -0.10-0.49
  When Rushing -12.04-0.85
    EPA/Play -0.36-0.03
Situational ESPN team id 130 ESPN team id 127
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 34 (44%)27 (44%)
  When Passing 24 (53%)13 (39%)
  When Rushing 10 (30%)14 (48%)
  On Standard Downs 21 (43%)22 (50%)
  On Passing Downs 13 (45%)5 (28%)
  On Early Downs 25 (42%)21 (46%)
  On Late Downs 9 (47%)6 (38%)
  During "Middle 8" 8 (47%)2 (33%)
Early Downs 5946
  First Downs Created 15 (25%)10 (22%)
  EPA -4.977.01
  EPA/Play -0.080.15
  Passes 30 (51%)22 (48%)
  Rushes 29 (49%)24 (52%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 16 (53%)9 (41%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 9 (31%)12 (50%)
"Middle 8" Plays 176
  EPA 5.25-1.46
  EPA/play 0.31-0.24
  Passes 14 (82%)3 (50%)
  Rushes 3 (18%)3 (50%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 8 (57%)1 (33%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 0 (0%)1 (33%)
Drives ESPN team id 130 ESPN team id 127
Total 1313
Avg Starting Field Position Own 27Own 26
Plays/Drive 8.135.82
Yards/Drive 47.2642.53
Available Yards % 65%57%
Defensive ESPN team id 130 ESPN team id 127
Scrimmage Plays 6278
Stop Rate 29%42%
Havoc Plays Created 9 (15%)4 (5%)
  Passing 7 (21%)1 (2%)
  Rushing 2 (7%)3 (9%)
TFLs Generated 63
  Passing 40
  Rushing 23
Sacks Generated 3 (9%)0 (0%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 31
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 130 ESPN team id 127
Turnovers 33
  Fumbles 21
  Fumbles Lost 20
  Fumbles Recovered 01
  Interceptions 13
Turnover Margin 00
Expected Turnovers 1.72.2
Expected Turnover Margin 0.4-0.4
Turnover Luck (pts) -2.22.2
Special Teams ESPN team id 130 ESPN team id 127
Total Plays 14 16
Total EPA 0.81 -2.22
  Field Goal EPA 1.72 0
  Punting EPA 0.43 -0.71
  Kickoff Return EPA -1.34 -1.51

Michigan [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Cade McNamara 28/42, 383 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 0 Scks, 76.2 xQBR 9.12 0.46 19.18 55% 164.0%
J.J. McCarthy 2/3, 20 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 23.9 xQBR 6.67 0.46 1.38 33% -6.0%
Rush attempts
Cade McNamara 2 carries, 23 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.50 0.44 0.89 50% 0.0%
Brad Robbins 1 carry, 5 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 5.00 -1.48 -1.48 0% -5.0%
Hassan Haskins 14 carries, 59 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.21 -0.17 -2.40 29% 8.0%
Blake Corum 13 carries, 45 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.46 -0.23 -2.96 31% 1.0%
J.J. McCarthy 3 carries, 7 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 2.33 -2.03 -6.08 33% 0.0%
Pass targets
Andrel Anthony 6 catches (6 targets), 155 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 25.83 2.56 15.37 100% 49.0%
Mike Sainristil 2 catches (2 targets), 62 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 31.00 3.98 7.96 100% 25.0%
Erick All 9 catches (9 targets), 95 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.56 0.49 4.43 67% 10.0%
Hassan Haskins 2 catches (2 targets), 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 1.20 2.39 100% 4.0%
Cornelius Johnson 6 catches (6 targets), 36 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.39 2.31 67% 13.0%
Luke Schoonmaker 1 catch (1 target), 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.00 1.97 1.97 100% 8.0%
A.J. Henning 1 catch (1 target), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 1.38 1.38 100% 2.0%
Roman Wilson 1 catch (1 target), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.92 0.92 100% 2.0%
Blake Corum 2 catches (2 targets), 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.33 0.66 50% 0.0%

Michigan State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
TEAM 0/0, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 23.3 xQBR 0.00 -1.35 -1.35 0% -1.0%
Payton Thorne 19/30, 196 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT, 2 Scks, 34.2 xQBR 6.12 -0.20 -6.25 41% 7.0%
Rush attempts
Kenneth Walker III 19 carries, 179 yds, 4 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.42 0.80 15.14 53% 38.0%
TEAM 1 carry, -2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -2.00 0.02 0.02 100% -1.0%
Payton Thorne 4 carries, 23 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.75 -0.04 -0.16 50% -14.0%
Jordon Simmons 3 carries, 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.67 -0.36 -1.09 0% -5.0%
Pass targets
Jayden Reed 6 catches (6 targets), 80 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.33 1.54 9.23 83% 9.0%
Jalen Nailor 4 catches (4 targets), 75 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 18.75 1.64 6.57 75% 12.0%
Connor Heyward 2 catches (2 targets), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.86 1.72 100% 2.0%
Montorie Foster 2 catches (2 targets), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.50 0.28 0.56 100% 3.0%
Tyler Hunt 1 catch (1 target), 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.27 -0.27 0% 0.0%
Maliq Carr 1 catch (1 target), 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.56 -0.56 0% 0.0%
Kenneth Walker III 3 catches (3 targets), 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.67 -0.55 -1.64 33% -1.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 11:03 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 5 at MICH 7) Andrel Anthony 93 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Jake Moody Kick) - MICH 7, MSU 0 8.59 59.7% 20.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -1.59 = 8.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.59)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 99 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.7%

Win Probability (After): 79.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:29 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 3 at MSU 42) Kenneth Walker III 58 Yd Run (Payton Thorne Pass to Jayden Reed for Two-Point Conversion) - MICH 30, MSU 30 7.24 4.4% 17.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 0.76 = 7.24

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.24)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.4%

Win Probability (After): 22.1%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 20 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 7:12 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 45) J.J. McCarthy run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 41 fumbled, recovered by MchSt Jacub Panasiuk - MICH 33, MSU 30 -5.80 68.7% 4.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 41

Started Drive at: MICH 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.21 - 2.59 = -5.80

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.59)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.21)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 33, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.7%

Win Probability (After): 73.4%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -4

Q1 4:09 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 5 at 50) Payton Thorne pass intercepted return for no gain to the MchSt 30 - MICH 7, MSU 0 -5.28 11.1% 9.8%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 30

Started Drive at: MSU 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.56 - 0.72 = -5.28

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.28)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.56)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.1%

Win Probability (After): 21.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q1 4:09 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 5 at 50) Payton Thorne pass intercepted return for no gain to the MchSt 30 - MICH 6, MSU 0 -4.90 20.9% -8.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 30

Started Drive at: MSU 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.18 - 0.72 = -4.90

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.28)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.18)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 6, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.9%

Win Probability (After): 12.3%

Away Score: 7 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 12:29 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 8 at MICH 27) Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 43 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST down - MICH 30, MSU 30 4.51 34.8% 20.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 30

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.14 - -0.37 = 4.51

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.8%

Win Probability (After): 55.4%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q3 6:47 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 4 at MICH 29) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 28 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST down - MICH 30, MSU 14 4.40 4.2% 4.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 1

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.34 - 0.95 = 4.40

Score Difference (Before): -16 (-15.05)

Score Difference (End): -16 (-10.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.2%

Win Probability (After): 9.0%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:18 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 1 at MICH 48) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 40 yds to the Mich 8 for a 1ST down - MICH 13, MSU 7 4.24 12.4% 7.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 8

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.24 - 0.99 = 4.24

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.01)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-0.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.4%

Win Probability (After): 20.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:47 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 7 at MSU 19) Mike Sainristil 19 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Jake Moody Kick) - MICH 30, MSU 14 3.45 91.9% 4.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.55 = 3.45

Score Difference (Before): 9 (12.55)

Score Difference (End): 16 (16.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.9%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 23 (30) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 7:12 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 8 at MICH 39) MICHIGAN Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Offsides on MORRIS, Mike enforced (5 Yards) to the Mich 34 - MICH 33, MSU 30 -3.34 19.7% -6.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.31 - 2.03 = -3.34

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.97)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.7%

Win Probability (After): 13.0%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -4

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 1:00 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 48) Cade McNamara pass intercepted return for no gain to the MchSt 40 - MICH 33, MSU 37 -2.72 17.5% 82.5%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 60

Started Drive at: MICH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.37 - 1.35 = -2.72

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.65)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.37)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -6

Q2 7:10 ESPN team id 130 (Kickoff at MICH 35) Matt Coghlin kickoff for 62 yds , Blake Corum return for 19 yds to the Mich 22 - MICH 13, MSU 14 -0.79 69.3% -30.1%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 78

Started Drive at: MICH 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.50 - 1.29 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.29)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.3%

Win Probability (After): 39.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 7:17 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 14 at MSU 21) Bryce Baringer punt for 58 yds , returns for no gain to the Mich 45 - MICH 33, MSU 30 -0.60 9.6% 24.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 55

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.59 - -1.99 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.99)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.59)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 33, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.6%

Win Probability (After): 33.7%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:13 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 29 at MSU 5) Bryce Baringer punt for 66 yds, downed at the Mich 29 - MICH 20, MSU 14 1.35 8.8% 21.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 95 -> 71

Started Drive at: MSU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.97 - -2.32 = 1.35

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-8.32)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.97)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.8%

Win Probability (After): 30.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -5 Defense Timeouts: -3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 12:29 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 8 at MICH 27) Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 43 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST down - MICH 30, MSU 30 4.51 34.8% 20.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 30

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.14 - -0.37 = 4.51

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.8%

Win Probability (After): 55.4%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q1 11:03 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 5 at MICH 7) Andrel Anthony 93 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Jake Moody Kick) - MICH 7, MSU 0 8.59 59.7% 20.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -1.59 = 8.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.59)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 99 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.7%

Win Probability (After): 79.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:29 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 8 at MICH 27) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete - MICH 30, MSU 30 -0.99 52.6% -17.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.37 - 0.62 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 34.8%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 28 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 12:29 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 3 at MSU 42) Kenneth Walker III 58 Yd Run (Payton Thorne Pass to Jayden Reed for Two-Point Conversion) - MICH 30, MSU 30 7.24 4.4% 17.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 0.76 = 7.24

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.24)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.4%

Win Probability (After): 22.1%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 20 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 14:46 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 9 at MICH 48) Brad Robbins punt for 38 yds, downed at the MchSt 14 - MICH 30, MSU 22 0.44 77.5% 16.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 86

Started Drive at: MICH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.11 - -0.33 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): 8 (7.67)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.11)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 30, MSU 22

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.5%

Win Probability (After): 93.9%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:33 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 6 at MSU 35) Payton Thorne run for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 29 - MICH 33, MSU 37 -1.08 79.3% -15.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 71

Started Drive at: MSU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.64 - 0.44 = -1.08

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.44)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.3%

Win Probability (After): 63.8%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -6

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 11:03 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 5 at MICH 7) Andrel Anthony 93 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Jake Moody Kick) - MICH 7, MSU 0 8.59 59.7% 20.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -1.59 = 8.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.59)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 99 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.7%

Win Probability (After): 79.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:18 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 3 at MSU 8) Jake Moody 26 Yd Field Goal - MICH 10, MSU 0 -0.14 78.7% 1.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.14 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.14)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 10, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.7%

Win Probability (After): 80.1%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:52 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MICH 27) Kenneth Walker III 27 Yd Run (Matt Coghlin Kick) - MICH 10, MSU 7 3.20 9.4% 7.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.80 = 3.20

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.20)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 10, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.4%

Win Probability (After): 17.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q2 9:18 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 2 at MSU 20) Jake Moody 38 Yd Field Goal - MICH 13, MSU 7 0.20 65.1% 4.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 65

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.80 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.80)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.1%

Win Probability (After): 69.2%

Away Score: 10 (13) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 3:45 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 9 at MSU 17) Andrel Anthony 17 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick) - MICH 20, MSU 14 3.01 53.5% 13.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.99 = 3.01

Score Difference (Before): -1 (2.99)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.5%

Win Probability (After): 66.8%

Away Score: 13 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q2 0:02 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 5 at MSU 17) Jake Moody 35 Yd Field Goal - MICH 23, MSU 14 0.79 79.1% -3.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 65

Started Drive at: MICH 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.21 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.21)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.1%

Win Probability (After): 75.2%

Away Score: 20 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -7 Defense Timeouts: -3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:47 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 7 at MSU 19) Mike Sainristil 19 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Jake Moody Kick) - MICH 30, MSU 14 3.45 91.9% 4.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.55 = 3.45

Score Difference (Before): 9 (12.55)

Score Difference (End): 16 (16.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.9%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 23 (30) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 3:58 ESPN team id 127 (1st & Goal at MICH 1) Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Run (Payton Thorne Pass to Tre Mosley for Two-Point Conversion) - MICH 30, MSU 22 1.61 8.6% 4.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 6.39 = 1.61

Score Difference (Before): -16 (-9.61)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 22

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.6%

Win Probability (After): 13.4%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 14 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 12:29 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 3 at MSU 42) Kenneth Walker III 58 Yd Run (Payton Thorne Pass to Jayden Reed for Two-Point Conversion) - MICH 30, MSU 30 7.24 4.4% 17.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 0.76 = 7.24

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.24)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.4%

Win Probability (After): 22.1%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 20 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 9:20 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 8 at MSU 18) Jake Moody 36 Yd Field Goal - MICH 33, MSU 30 0.87 61.5% -5.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 65

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.13 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): 2 (4.13)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.5%

Win Probability (After): 56.5%

Away Score: 30 (33) Home Score: 28 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:08 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 5 at MICH 23) Kenneth Walker III 23 Yd Run (Matt Coghlin Kick) - MICH 33, MSU 37 2.95 34.3% 10.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.05 = 2.95

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.05)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.3%

Win Probability (After): 44.7%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 30 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -4

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 127 (Kickoff at MSU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 62 yds - MICH 0, MSU 0 0.00 35.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 0, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.4%

Win Probability (After): 35.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 25) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 16 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST down - MICH 0, MSU 0 1.25 35.4% 3.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 59

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 0.86 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 0, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.4%

Win Probability (After): 39.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 41) Kenneth Walker III run for 8 yds to the MchSt 49 - MICH 0, MSU 0 0.66 39.0% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 51

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.78 - 2.11 = 0.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 0, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.0%

Win Probability (After): 40.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 2 at MSU 49) Kenneth Walker III run for 7 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST down - MICH 0, MSU 0 0.38 40.1% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 44

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.16 - 2.78 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 0, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.1%

Win Probability (After): 41.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MICH 44) Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 3 yds to the Mich 41 - MICH 0, MSU 0 -0.27 41.3% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 41

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.88 - 3.16 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 0, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.3%

Win Probability (After): 40.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 7 at MICH 41) Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the Mich 39 - MICH 0, MSU 0 -0.64 40.9% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 39

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 2.88 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.88)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 0, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.9%

Win Probability (After): 38.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:38 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 5 at MICH 39) Payton Thorne pass intercepted return for no gain to the Mich 2 - MICH 0, MSU 0 -1.39 41.0% -2.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 98

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.98 - 2.37 = -1.39

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.98)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 0, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.0%

Win Probability (After): 38.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:38 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 2) MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Andrew Stueber) to the Mich 1 - MICH 0, MSU 0 -0.39 65.4% -1.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.82 - -0.43 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.43)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 0, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.4%

Win Probability (After): 64.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:38 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 11 at MICH 1) Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 2 - MICH 0, MSU 0 -0.41 64.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 99 -> 98

Started Drive at: MICH 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.23 - -0.82 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.82)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 0, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.3%

Win Probability (After): 63.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:38 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 10 at MICH 2) Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 5 yds to the Mich 7 - MICH 0, MSU 0 -0.33 63.7% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 93

Started Drive at: MICH 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.56 - -1.23 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.23)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 0, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.7%

Win Probability (After): 63.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:03 ESPN team id 127 (Kickoff at MSU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MICH 0, MSU 0 0.05 37.7% 0.5%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.09 - 1.03 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.03)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 0, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.7%

Win Probability (After): 38.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:03 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 5 at MICH 7) Andrel Anthony 93 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Jake Moody Kick) - MICH 7, MSU 0 8.59 59.7% 20.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -1.59 = 8.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.59)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 99 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.7%

Win Probability (After): 79.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:03 ESPN team id 130 (1st & Goal at MSU 3) Timeout MICHIGAN ST, clock 11:03 - MICH 7, MSU 0 0.00 84.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 3

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 7.00 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.92)

Score Difference (End): 7 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.0%

Win Probability (After): 84.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 11:03 ESPN team id 127 (Kickoff at MSU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MICH 7, MSU 0 0.00 20.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.18 - -0.18 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.18)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.5%

Win Probability (After): 20.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 11:03 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 25) Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28 - MICH 7, MSU 0 -0.40 20.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 72

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.58 - -0.18 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.18)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.5%

Win Probability (After): 20.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 11:03 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 7 at MSU 28) THORNE, Payton sacked for a loss of 6 yards at the MSU22 (MORRIS, Mike). PENALTY MIC Face mask on MORRIS, Mike enforced 15 yards from the MSU28 to the MSU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - MICH 7, MSU 0 1.95 20.2% 3.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 57

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - -0.58 = 1.95

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.58)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.2%

Win Probability (After): 23.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 11:03 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 43) Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 44 - MICH 7, MSU 0 -0.51 23.3% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 56

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.85 - 1.36 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.64)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.3%

Win Probability (After): 21.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 11:03 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 9 at MSU 44) Payton Thorne pass incomplete - MICH 7, MSU 0 -0.91 21.9% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.85 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.15)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.9%

Win Probability (After): 20.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 11:03 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 9 at MSU 44) Payton Thorne pass incomplete - MICH 7, MSU 0 -1.59 20.4% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.65 - -0.06 = -1.59

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.06)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.4%

Win Probability (After): 19.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 9:32 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MSU 20) Timeout MICHIGAN ST, clock 09:32 - MICH 7, MSU 0 0.00 86.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: MICH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.03 - 5.03 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.03)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.3%

Win Probability (After): 86.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q1 9:32 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 20) Hassan Haskins run for 7 yds to the Mich 27 - MICH 7, MSU 0 0.40 84.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 73

Started Drive at: MICH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 1.95 = 0.40

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.95)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.6%

Win Probability (After): 84.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q1 9:32 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 3 at MICH 27) Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 28 - MICH 7, MSU 0 -0.87 84.2% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 72

Started Drive at: MICH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 2.35 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.35)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.2%

Win Probability (After): 83.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q1 9:32 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 2 at MICH 28) Cade McNamara pass complete to A.J. Henning for 7 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST down - MICH 7, MSU 0 1.38 83.2% 1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 65

Started Drive at: MICH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.86 - 1.48 = 1.38

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.48)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.2%

Win Probability (After): 84.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q1 9:32 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 35) Cade McNamara pass incomplete - MICH 7, MSU 0 -0.55 84.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: MICH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.31 - 2.86 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.86)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.8%

Win Probability (After): 84.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q1 9:32 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 10 at MICH 35) Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mich 40 - MICH 7, MSU 0 -0.39 84.2% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 60

Started Drive at: MICH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.92 - 2.31 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.31)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.2%

Win Probability (After): 84.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q1 9:32 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 5 at MICH 40) Cade McNamara pass incomplete - MICH 7, MSU 0 -1.58 84.7% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: MICH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 1.92 = -1.58

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.92)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.7%

Win Probability (After): 82.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q1 9:32 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 9 at MSU 44) Bryce Baringer punt for 56 yds for a touchback - MICH 7, MSU 0 -0.53 19.7% -4.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 80

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.95 - -1.41 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.41)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.95)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.7%

Win Probability (After): 15.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 6:49 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 19) Timeout MICHIGAN ST, clock 06:49 - MICH 7, MSU 0 0.00 22.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 81

Started Drive at: MSU 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.95 - -1.95 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.95)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.7%

Win Probability (After): 22.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q1 6:49 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 19) Jordon Simmons run for 4 yds to the MchSt 23 - MICH 7, MSU 0 -0.17 21.4% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 77

Started Drive at: MSU 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.52 - -0.35 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.35)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.4%

Win Probability (After): 20.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q1 6:49 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 6 at MSU 23) Payton Thorne run for 22 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST down - MICH 7, MSU 0 2.11 20.2% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 55

Started Drive at: MSU 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.58 - -0.52 = 2.11

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.52)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.2%

Win Probability (After): 22.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q1 6:49 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 45) Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the MchSt 48 - MICH 7, MSU 0 -0.30 22.8% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 52

Started Drive at: MSU 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.29 - 1.58 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.42)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.8%

Win Probability (After): 21.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q1 6:49 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 7 at MSU 48) Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 2 yds to the 50 yard line - MICH 7, MSU 0 -0.56 21.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 50

Started Drive at: MSU 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.73 - 1.29 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.71)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.6%

Win Probability (After): 21.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q1 6:49 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 5 at MICH 40) Brad Robbins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 19 - MICH 7, MSU 0 -0.01 83.4% -4.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 81

Started Drive at: MICH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.36 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.36)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.35)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.4%

Win Probability (After): 78.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:09 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 5 at 50) Payton Thorne pass intercepted return for no gain to the MchSt 30 - MICH 6, MSU 0 -4.90 20.9% -8.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 30

Started Drive at: MSU 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.18 - 0.72 = -4.90

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.28)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.18)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 6, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.9%

Win Probability (After): 12.3%

Away Score: 7 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q1 4:09 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MSU 30) Timeout MICHIGAN ST, clock 04:09 - MICH 7, MSU 0 0.00 86.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.17 - 4.17 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.17)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.9%

Win Probability (After): 86.9%

Away Score: 6 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q1 4:09 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MSU 30) Cade McNamara pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 15 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST down - MICH 7, MSU 0 0.79 79.0% 3.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 15

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.35 - 4.56 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.56)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.0%

Win Probability (After): 82.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q1 4:09 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MSU 15) MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Andrel Anthony) to the MchSt 18 - MICH 7, MSU 0 -1.18 82.3% -1.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 18

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.17 - 5.35 = -1.18

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.35)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.3%

Win Probability (After): 81.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q1 4:09 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 13 at MSU 18) Hassan Haskins run for 5 yds to the MchSt 13 - MICH 7, MSU 0 -0.07 81.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 13

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.84 - 4.91 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.91)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.2%

Win Probability (After): 81.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q1 4:09 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 8 at MSU 13) Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 12 - MICH 7, MSU 0 -0.69 81.0% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 12

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.15 - 4.84 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.84)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.0%

Win Probability (After): 80.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q1 4:09 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 7 at MSU 12) Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 4 yds to the MchSt 8 - MICH 7, MSU 0 -1.00 80.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 8

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.14 - 4.15 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.15)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.3%

Win Probability (After): 80.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q1 4:09 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 5 at 50) Payton Thorne pass intercepted return for no gain to the MchSt 30 - MICH 7, MSU 0 -5.28 11.1% 9.8%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 30

Started Drive at: MSU 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.56 - 0.72 = -5.28

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.28)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.56)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 7, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.1%

Win Probability (After): 21.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q1 1:18 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 3 at MSU 8) Jake Moody 26 Yd Field Goal - MICH 10, MSU 0 -0.14 78.7% 1.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.14 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.14)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 10, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.7%

Win Probability (After): 80.1%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 1:18 ESPN team id 127 (Kickoff at MSU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 62 yds - MICH 10, MSU 0 0.00 8.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - 0.21 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.79)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 10, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.3%

Win Probability (After): 8.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q1 1:18 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 25) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 19 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST down - MICH 10, MSU 0 1.54 8.3% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 56

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.75 - 0.21 = 1.54

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.79)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 10, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.3%

Win Probability (After): 9.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q1 1:18 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 44) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 16 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST down - MICH 10, MSU 0 1.19 9.4% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 40

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.94 - 1.75 = 1.19

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.25)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 10, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.4%

Win Probability (After): 9.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q1 1:18 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MICH 40) THORNE, Payton pass up the middle incomplete intended for WALKER III, Kenneth thrown to the MIC40. PENALTY Before the snap, MIC Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the MIC40 to the MIC35. NO PLAY (replay the down). - MICH 10, MSU 0 0.59 9.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 35

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.54 - 2.94 = 0.59

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.06)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 10, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.9%

Win Probability (After): 9.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q1 1:18 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 5 at MICH 35) Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the Mich 33 - MICH 10, MSU 0 0.00 9.9% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 33

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.53 - 3.54 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.46)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 10, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.9%

Win Probability (After): 9.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 3 at MICH 33) Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 6 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST down - MICH 10, MSU 0 0.27 9.5% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 27

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.78 - 3.50 = 0.27

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.50)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 10, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.5%

Win Probability (After): 10.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q2 14:52 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MICH 27) Kenneth Walker III 27 Yd Run (Matt Coghlin Kick) - MICH 10, MSU 7 3.20 9.4% 7.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.80 = 3.20

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.20)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 10, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.4%

Win Probability (After): 17.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q2 14:52 ESPN team id 130 (Kickoff at MICH 35) Matt Coghlin kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MICH 10, MSU 7 0.00 60.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.49 - 1.49 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.49)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 10, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.0%

Win Probability (After): 60.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q2 14:52 ESPN team id 130 (Kickoff at MICH 35) Matt Coghlin kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MICH 10, MSU 7 0.00 60.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.49 - 1.49 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.49)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 10, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.0%

Win Probability (After): 60.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q2 14:52 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 25) Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the Mich 34 - MICH 10, MSU 7 1.02 60.0% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.51 - 1.49 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.49)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 10, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.0%

Win Probability (After): 60.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q2 14:52 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 1 at MICH 34) Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST down - MICH 10, MSU 7 -0.18 60.8% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 63

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.33 - 2.51 = -0.18

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.51)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 10, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.8%

Win Probability (After): 61.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q2 14:52 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 7 at MICH 40) Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 21 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST down - MICH 10, MSU 7 1.71 60.9% 3.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 39

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.68 - 1.96 = 1.71

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.96)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 10, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.9%

Win Probability (After): 64.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q2 14:52 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MSU 39) Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MchSt 38 - MICH 10, MSU 7 -0.61 64.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 38

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.06 - 3.68 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.68)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 10, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.2%

Win Probability (After): 63.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q2 14:52 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 9 at MSU 38) Cade McNamara pass complete to Hassan Haskins for 10 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST down - MICH 10, MSU 7 1.25 63.9% 3.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 28

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.32 - 3.06 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.06)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 10, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.9%

Win Probability (After): 67.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q2 14:52 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MSU 28) Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MchSt 24 - MICH 10, MSU 7 -0.22 67.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 24

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.10 - 4.32 = -0.22

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.32)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 10, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.5%

Win Probability (After): 67.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q2 14:52 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 6 at MSU 24) Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MchSt 21 - MICH 10, MSU 7 -0.10 67.7% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 21

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.00 - 4.10 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.10)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 10, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.7%

Win Probability (After): 67.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q2 14:52 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 3 at MSU 21) Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 20 - MICH 10, MSU 7 -1.09 67.0% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 20

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.91 - 4.00 = -1.09

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.00)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 10, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.0%

Win Probability (After): 65.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q2 9:18 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 2 at MSU 20) Jake Moody 38 Yd Field Goal - MICH 13, MSU 7 0.20 65.1% 4.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 65

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.80 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.80)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.1%

Win Probability (After): 69.2%

Away Score: 10 (13) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:18 ESPN team id 127 (Kickoff at MSU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MICH 13, MSU 7 0.00 12.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - 0.99 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.01)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.2%

Win Probability (After): 12.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q2 9:18 ESPN team id 130 (0th & Goal at MICH 35) Timeout MICHIGAN ST, clock 09:18 - MICH 13, MSU 7 0.00 71.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - 1.97 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.97)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.0%

Win Probability (After): 71.0%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q2 9:18 ESPN team id 127 (Kickoff at MSU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MICH 13, MSU 7 0.00 12.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - 0.99 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.01)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.2%

Win Probability (After): 12.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q2 9:18 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 25) Kenneth Walker III run for 18 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST down - MICH 13, MSU 7 1.21 12.2% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 57

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.20 - 0.99 = 1.21

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.01)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.2%

Win Probability (After): 13.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q2 9:18 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 43) Kenneth Walker III run for 9 yds to the Mich 48 - MICH 13, MSU 7 0.87 13.8% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 48

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.07 - 2.20 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.80)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.8%

Win Probability (After): 14.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q2 9:18 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 1 at MICH 48) Payton Thorne pass incomplete - MICH 13, MSU 7 -0.69 14.2% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.38 - 3.07 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.93)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.2%

Win Probability (After): 13.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q2 9:18 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 1 at MICH 48) Payton Thorne run for no gain to the Mich 48 - MICH 13, MSU 7 -1.38 13.7% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - 2.38 = -1.38

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.62)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.7%

Win Probability (After): 12.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q2 9:18 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 1 at MICH 48) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 40 yds to the Mich 8 for a 1ST down - MICH 13, MSU 7 4.24 12.4% 7.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 8

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.24 - 0.99 = 4.24

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.01)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-0.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.4%

Win Probability (After): 20.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 7:16 ESPN team id 127 (1st & Goal at MICH 3) K. Walker III run for 8 yds for a TD, (M. Coghlin KICK) - MICH 13, MSU 7 0.00 21.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 3

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.24 - 5.24 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-0.76)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-0.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.3%

Win Probability (After): 21.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q2 7:10 ESPN team id 130 (Kickoff at MICH 35) Matt Coghlin kickoff for 62 yds , Blake Corum return for 19 yds to the Mich 22 - MICH 13, MSU 14 -0.79 69.3% -30.1%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 78

Started Drive at: MICH 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.50 - 1.29 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.29)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.3%

Win Probability (After): 39.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q2 7:10 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 22) Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 15 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST down - MICH 13, MSU 14 0.90 38.4% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 63

Started Drive at: MICH 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.08 - 1.18 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.18)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.4%

Win Probability (After): 40.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q2 7:10 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 37) Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mich 39 - MICH 13, MSU 14 -0.43 40.6% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 61

Started Drive at: MICH 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - 2.08 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.6%

Win Probability (After): 41.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q2 7:10 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 8 at MICH 39) Cade McNamara pass incomplete - MICH 13, MSU 14 -0.70 41.1% -3.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: MICH 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.94 - 1.64 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.64)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.1%

Win Probability (After): 37.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q2 7:10 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 8 at MICH 39) Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 13 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST down - MICH 13, MSU 14 1.97 37.5% 7.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 48

Started Drive at: MICH 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.91 - 0.94 = 1.97

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.06)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.5%

Win Probability (After): 45.0%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q2 7:10 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MSU 48) Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the MchSt 42 - MICH 13, MSU 14 0.22 45.0% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 42

Started Drive at: MICH 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.12 - 2.91 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.91)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.0%

Win Probability (After): 45.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q2 7:10 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 4 at MSU 42) Hassan Haskins run for 24 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST down - MICH 13, MSU 14 1.43 45.8% 7.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 18

Started Drive at: MICH 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.55 - 3.12 = 1.43

Score Difference (Before): -1 (2.12)

Score Difference (End): -1 (3.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.8%

Win Probability (After): 53.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q2 7:10 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MSU 18) Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 17 - MICH 13, MSU 14 -0.41 53.2% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 17

Started Drive at: MICH 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.13 - 4.55 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.55)

Score Difference (End): -1 (3.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 13, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.2%

Win Probability (After): 52.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q2 3:45 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 9 at MSU 17) Andrel Anthony 17 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick) - MICH 20, MSU 14 3.01 53.5% 13.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.99 = 3.01

Score Difference (Before): -1 (2.99)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.5%

Win Probability (After): 66.8%

Away Score: 13 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q2 3:45 ESPN team id 130 (1st & Goal at MSU 3) Timeout MICHIGAN ST, clock 03:45 - MICH 20, MSU 14 0.00 76.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 3

Started Drive at: MICH 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 7.00 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.92)

Score Difference (End): 6 (13.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.8%

Win Probability (After): 76.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q2 3:36 ESPN team id 127 (Kickoff at MSU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds , Jalen Nailor return for 23 yds to the MchSt 10 - MICH 20, MSU 14 -1.56 13.6% -1.7%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 90

Started Drive at: MSU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.69 - 0.87 = -1.56

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.13)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.6%

Win Probability (After): 11.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q2 3:36 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 10) Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the MchSt 10 - MICH 20, MSU 14 -0.49 13.3% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90

Started Drive at: MSU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - 0.14 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.86)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.3%

Win Probability (After): 12.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q2 3:36 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 10 at MSU 10) Payton Thorne pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 14 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST down - MICH 20, MSU 14 1.20 12.4% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 76

Started Drive at: MSU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.85 - -0.35 = 1.20

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.35)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.4%

Win Probability (After): 13.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q2 3:36 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 24) THORNE, Payton sacked for a loss of 2 yards at the MSU22 (HUTCHINSON, Aidan). PENALTY MSU Holding on CAMPBELL, Luke enforced 10 yards from the MSU24 to the MSU14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - MICH 20, MSU 14 -0.73 13.6% -1.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 86

Started Drive at: MSU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.12 - 0.85 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.15)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.6%

Win Probability (After): 12.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q2 3:36 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 20 at MSU 14) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for no gain to the MchSt 14 - MICH 20, MSU 14 -0.47 12.3% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 86

Started Drive at: MSU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - 0.12 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.88)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.3%

Win Probability (After): 11.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q2 1:31 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 20 at MSU 14) sacked by David Ojabo for a loss of 14 yards Payton Thorne fumbled, recovered by Mich Aidan Hutchinson , return for 0 yards - MICH 20, MSU 14 -1.35 10.9% -0.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 97

Started Drive at: MSU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.62 - -0.27 = -1.35

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.27)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-7.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.9%

Win Probability (After): 10.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q2 1:31 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 31 at MSU 3) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 01:31 - MICH 20, MSU 14 0.00 9.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 97 -> 97

Started Drive at: MSU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.62 - -1.62 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-7.62)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-7.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.3%

Win Probability (After): 9.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -4

Q2 1:25 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 31 at MSU 3) Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 5 - MICH 20, MSU 14 -0.37 9.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 97 -> 95

Started Drive at: MSU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.09 - -1.72 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-7.72)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-8.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.3%

Win Probability (After): 9.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -4

Q2 1:25 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 29 at MSU 5) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 01:25 - MICH 20, MSU 14 0.00 9.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 95 -> 95

Started Drive at: MSU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.09 - -2.09 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-8.09)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-8.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.0%

Win Probability (After): 9.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -5

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:13 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 29) Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - MICH 20, MSU 14 0.48 69.3% 3.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 50

Started Drive at: MICH 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.45 - 0.97 = 0.48

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.97)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.3%

Win Probability (After): 72.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -5 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q2 1:13 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at 50) Cade McNamara pass incomplete - MICH 20, MSU 14 -0.21 72.6% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: MICH 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.24 - 1.45 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.45)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.6%

Win Probability (After): 71.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -5 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q2 1:13 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 10 at 50) Cade McNamara pass complete to Blake Corum for 4 yds to the MchSt 46 - MICH 20, MSU 14 -0.12 71.7% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 46

Started Drive at: MICH 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 1.24 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.24)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.7%

Win Probability (After): 71.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -5 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q2 1:13 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 6 at MSU 46) Cade McNamara pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 11 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST down - MICH 20, MSU 14 1.26 71.3% 4.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 35

Started Drive at: MICH 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.38 - 1.12 = 1.26

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.12)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.3%

Win Probability (After): 76.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -5 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q2 1:13 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MSU 35) MCNAMARA, Cade pass to the right incomplete intended for SCHOONMAKER, Luke thrown to the MSU29. PENALTY MSU Offsides on PANASIUK, Jacub enforced 5 yards from the MSU35 to the MSU30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - MICH 20, MSU 14 0.58 76.1% 0.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 30

Started Drive at: MICH 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.96 - 2.38 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.38)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.1%

Win Probability (After): 76.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -5 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q2 1:13 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 5 at MSU 30) Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 8 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST down - MICH 20, MSU 14 0.35 76.9% 2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 22

Started Drive at: MICH 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.31 - 2.96 = 0.35

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.96)

Score Difference (End): 6 (9.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -5 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q2 1:13 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 29 at MSU 5) Bryce Baringer punt for 66 yds, downed at the Mich 29 - MICH 20, MSU 14 1.35 8.8% 21.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 95 -> 71

Started Drive at: MSU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.97 - -2.32 = 1.35

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-8.32)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.97)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.8%

Win Probability (After): 30.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -5 Defense Timeouts: -3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:14 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MSU 22) Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 5 yds to the MchSt 17 - MICH 20, MSU 14 0.92 79.5% 2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 17

Started Drive at: MICH 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.63 - 2.70 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.70)

Score Difference (End): 6 (9.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.5%

Win Probability (After): 81.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -5 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q2 0:14 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 5 at MSU 17) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 00:14 - MICH 20, MSU 14 0.00 84.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: MICH 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.63 - 3.63 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (9.63)

Score Difference (End): 6 (9.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.0%

Win Probability (After): 84.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -6 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q2 0:14 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 5 at MSU 17) Cade McNamara pass incomplete - MICH 20, MSU 14 -0.39 82.5% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: MICH 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.01 - 3.40 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 6 (9.40)

Score Difference (End): 6 (9.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.5%

Win Probability (After): 80.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -6 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q2 0:06 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 5 at MSU 17) Cade McNamara pass incomplete - MICH 20, MSU 14 -0.29 80.1% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: MICH 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.31 - 2.60 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.60)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.1%

Win Probability (After): 78.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -6 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q2 0:06 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 5 at MSU 17) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 00:06 - MICH 20, MSU 14 0.00 79.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: MICH 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.31 - 2.31 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.31)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 20, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.0%

Win Probability (After): 79.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -7 Defense Timeouts: -3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:02 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 5 at MSU 17) Jake Moody 35 Yd Field Goal - MICH 23, MSU 14 0.79 79.1% -3.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 65

Started Drive at: MICH 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.21 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.21)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.1%

Win Probability (After): 75.2%

Away Score: 20 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -7 Defense Timeouts: -3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:02 ESPN team id 127 (Kickoff at MSU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MICH 23, MSU 14 0.00 6.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 0.02 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.98)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 6.4%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -7

Q2 0:02 ESPN team id 127 (Kickoff at MSU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MICH 23, MSU 14 0.00 6.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 0.02 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.98)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 6.4%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -7

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 25) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 23 - MICH 23, MSU 14 0.02 6.4% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 77

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - -0.02 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-9.02)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 5.8%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -7

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 130 (Kickoff at MICH 35) Matt Coghlin kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MICH 23, MSU 14 0.00 88.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 1.47 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.47)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.4%

Win Probability (After): 88.4%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 130 (Kickoff at MICH 35) Matt Coghlin kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MICH 23, MSU 14 0.00 88.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 1.47 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.47)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.4%

Win Probability (After): 88.4%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 25) Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 26 - MICH 23, MSU 14 -0.52 88.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.94 - 1.47 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.47)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.4%

Win Probability (After): 87.5%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 9 at MICH 26) Cade McNamara pass incomplete - MICH 23, MSU 14 -1.06 87.5% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.11 - 0.94 = -1.06

Score Difference (Before): 9 (9.94)

Score Difference (End): 9 (8.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.5%

Win Probability (After): 84.5%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 9 at MICH 26) Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 15 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST down - MICH 23, MSU 14 2.57 84.5% 5.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 59

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.46 - -0.11 = 2.57

Score Difference (Before): 9 (8.89)

Score Difference (End): 9 (11.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.5%

Win Probability (After): 89.6%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 41) Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 2 yds to the Mich 43 - MICH 23, MSU 14 -0.51 89.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 57

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 2.46 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 9 (11.46)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.6%

Win Probability (After): 89.2%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 8 at MICH 43) Cade McNamara pass complete to Hassan Haskins for 8 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST down - MICH 23, MSU 14 1.14 89.2% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 49

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.09 - 1.95 = 1.14

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.95)

Score Difference (End): 9 (12.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.2%

Win Probability (After): 89.8%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MSU 49) Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 48 - MICH 23, MSU 14 -0.67 89.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 48

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.41 - 3.09 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 9 (12.09)

Score Difference (End): 9 (11.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.8%

Win Probability (After): 89.5%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 9 at MSU 48) Cade McNamara pass complete to Blake Corum for 8 yds to the MchSt 40 - MICH 23, MSU 14 0.79 89.5% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 40

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.20 - 2.41 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 9 (11.41)

Score Difference (End): 9 (12.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.5%

Win Probability (After): 89.6%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 1 at MSU 40) Blake Corum run for no gain to the MchSt 40 - MICH 23, MSU 14 -1.50 89.6% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.69 - 3.20 = -1.50

Score Difference (Before): 9 (12.20)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.6%

Win Probability (After): 88.7%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 1 at MSU 40) MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Luke Schoonmaker) to the MchSt 45 - MICH 23, MSU 14 -2.00 88.7% -4.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 45

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.30 - 1.69 = -2.00

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.69)

Score Difference (End): 9 (8.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.7%

Win Probability (After): 84.8%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:27 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 6 at MSU 45) Brad Robbins run for 5 yds to the MchSt 40 - MICH 23, MSU 14 -1.48 88.2% -4.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 60

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.37 - 0.11 = -1.48

Score Difference (Before): 9 (9.11)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.63)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.2%

Win Probability (After): 83.3%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:27 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 40) Timeout MICHIGAN ST, clock 10:27 - MICH 23, MSU 14 0.00 16.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: MSU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.33 - 1.33 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.67)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.6%

Win Probability (After): 16.6%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 10:27 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 40) QB Keeper THORNE, Payton rush to the left for a gain of 10 yards to the MSU50 (ROSS, Josh). PENALTY MSU Holding on HORST, Jarrett enforced 10 yards from the MSU40 to the MSU30 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - MICH 23, MSU 14 -1.12 16.4% -3.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 70

Started Drive at: MSU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - 1.33 = -1.12

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.67)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.4%

Win Probability (After): 13.5%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 10:27 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 20 at MSU 30) Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the MchSt 30 - MICH 23, MSU 14 -0.79 13.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: MSU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.58 - 0.21 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.79)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.5%

Win Probability (After): 13.0%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 10:27 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 20 at MSU 30) Payton Thorne pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 27 - MICH 23, MSU 14 -1.19 13.0% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 73

Started Drive at: MSU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.78 - -0.58 = -1.19

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-9.58)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-10.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.0%

Win Probability (After): 12.1%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 10:27 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 23 at MSU 27) Payton Thorne pass incomplete - MICH 23, MSU 14 -1.00 12.1% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: MSU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.78 - -1.78 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-10.78)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-11.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.1%

Win Probability (After): 10.9%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 8:33 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 23 at MSU 27) Bryce Baringer punt for 46 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 19 yds to the Mich 46 - MICH 23, MSU 14 -0.22 10.7% -1.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 54

Started Drive at: MSU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.98 - -2.76 = -0.22

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-11.76)

Score Difference (End): 9 (11.98)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.7%

Win Probability (After): 9.4%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 8:33 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 46) Timeout MICHIGAN ST, clock 08:33 - MICH 23, MSU 14 0.00 89.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54

Started Drive at: MSU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.96 - 2.96 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 9 (11.96)

Score Difference (End): 9 (11.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.3%

Win Probability (After): 89.3%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 8:33 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 46) J.J. McCarthy run for 12 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST down - MICH 23, MSU 14 0.60 89.5% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 42

Started Drive at: MICH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.56 - 2.96 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): 9 (11.96)

Score Difference (End): 9 (12.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.5%

Win Probability (After): 91.1%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 8:33 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MSU 42) Cade McNamara run for 20 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST down - MICH 23, MSU 14 1.23 91.1% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 22

Started Drive at: MICH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.79 - 3.56 = 1.23

Score Difference (Before): 9 (12.56)

Score Difference (End): 9 (13.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.1%

Win Probability (After): 92.9%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 8:33 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MSU 22) Cade McNamara pass incomplete - MICH 23, MSU 14 -0.58 92.9% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: MICH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.21 - 4.79 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 9 (13.79)

Score Difference (End): 9 (13.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.9%

Win Probability (After): 92.4%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 8:33 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 10 at MSU 22) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Erick All for 3 yds to the MchSt 19 - MICH 23, MSU 14 -0.65 92.4% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 19

Started Drive at: MICH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.56 - 4.21 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 9 (13.21)

Score Difference (End): 9 (12.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 23, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.4%

Win Probability (After): 90.9%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 6:47 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 7 at MSU 19) Mike Sainristil 19 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Jake Moody Kick) - MICH 30, MSU 14 3.45 91.9% 4.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.55 = 3.45

Score Difference (Before): 9 (12.55)

Score Difference (End): 16 (16.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.9%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 23 (30) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 6:47 ESPN team id 130 (1st & Goal at MSU 3) Timeout MICHIGAN ST, clock 06:47 - MICH 30, MSU 14 0.00 97.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 3

Started Drive at: MICH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 7.00 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 16 (16.92)

Score Difference (End): 16 (23.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q3 6:47 ESPN team id 127 (Kickoff at MSU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MICH 30, MSU 14 0.00 3.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.39 - -0.39 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -16 (-16.39)

Score Difference (End): -16 (-16.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.5%

Win Probability (After): 3.5%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q3 6:47 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 25) THORNE, Payton pass to the left incomplete intended for FOSTER, Montorie thrown to the MSU38. PENALTY MIC Pass Interference on TURNER, DJ enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the MSU38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - MICH 30, MSU 14 1.18 3.5% 0.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 62

Started Drive at: MICH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - -0.39 = 1.18

Score Difference (Before): -16 (-16.39)

Score Difference (End): -16 (-15.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.5%

Win Probability (After): 3.7%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q3 6:47 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 38) Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the MchSt 43 - MICH 30, MSU 14 0.16 3.7% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 57

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 0.79 = 0.16

Score Difference (Before): -16 (-15.21)

Score Difference (End): -16 (-15.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.7%

Win Probability (After): 4.1%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q3 6:47 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 5 at MSU 43) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - MICH 30, MSU 14 0.75 4.1% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 50

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.70 - 0.95 = 0.75

Score Difference (Before): -16 (-15.05)

Score Difference (End): -16 (-14.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.1%

Win Probability (After): 4.7%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q3 6:47 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at 50) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 15 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST down pass incomplete for a 1ST down - MICH 30, MSU 14 1.27 4.7% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 35

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.96 - 1.70 = 1.27

Score Difference (Before): -16 (-14.30)

Score Difference (End): -16 (-13.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.7%

Win Probability (After): 6.1%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q3 6:47 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MICH 35) Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the Mich 32 - MICH 30, MSU 14 -0.16 6.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 32

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.80 - 2.96 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -16 (-13.04)

Score Difference (End): -16 (-13.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.1%

Win Probability (After): 6.0%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q3 6:47 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 7 at MICH 32) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 3 yds to the Mich 29 - MICH 30, MSU 14 -0.21 6.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 29

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 2.80 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): -16 (-13.20)

Score Difference (End): -16 (-13.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.0%

Win Probability (After): 5.8%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q3 6:47 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 4 at MICH 29) Payton Thorne pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for no gain to the Mich 29 - MICH 30, MSU 14 -1.65 5.8% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 29

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 2.59 = -1.65

Score Difference (Before): -16 (-13.41)

Score Difference (End): -16 (-15.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.8%

Win Probability (After): 4.2%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q3 6:47 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 4 at MICH 29) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 28 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST down - MICH 30, MSU 14 4.40 4.2% 4.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 1

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.34 - 0.95 = 4.40

Score Difference (Before): -16 (-15.05)

Score Difference (End): -16 (-10.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.2%

Win Probability (After): 9.0%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:58 ESPN team id 127 (1st & Goal at MICH 1) Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Run (Payton Thorne Pass to Tre Mosley for Two-Point Conversion) - MICH 30, MSU 22 1.61 8.6% 4.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 6.39 = 1.61

Score Difference (Before): -16 (-9.61)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 22

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.6%

Win Probability (After): 13.4%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 14 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q3 3:58 ESPN team id 127 (0th & Goal at MSU 35) Timeout MICHIGAN ST, clock 03:58 - MICH 30, MSU 22 0.00 13.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 8.00 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.08)

Score Difference (End): -8 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 22

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.1%

Win Probability (After): 13.1%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q3 3:52 ESPN team id 130 (Kickoff at MICH 35) Matt Coghlin kickoff for 64 yds , Blake Corum return for 19 yds to the Mich 20 - MICH 30, MSU 22 -0.48 76.0% 0.3%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80

Started Drive at: MICH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 1.56 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.56)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 22

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.0%

Win Probability (After): 76.2%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q3 3:52 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 20) Blake Corum run for 11 yds to the Mich 31 for a 1ST down - MICH 30, MSU 22 0.67 75.5% 2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 69

Started Drive at: MICH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.04 - 1.37 = 0.67

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.37)

Score Difference (End): 8 (10.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 22

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.5%

Win Probability (After): 78.4%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q3 3:52 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 31) Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 6 yds to the Mich 37 - MICH 30, MSU 22 0.12 78.4% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 63

Started Drive at: MICH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.16 - 2.04 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): 8 (10.04)

Score Difference (End): 8 (10.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 22

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.4%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q3 3:52 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 4 at MICH 37) Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mich 39 - MICH 30, MSU 22 -0.50 79.3% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 61

Started Drive at: MICH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.66 - 2.16 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 8 (10.16)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 22

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.3%

Win Probability (After): 78.1%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q3 3:52 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 2 at MICH 39) Hassan Haskins run for 8 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST down - MICH 30, MSU 22 1.09 78.1% 5.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 53

Started Drive at: MICH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.75 - 1.66 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.66)

Score Difference (End): 8 (10.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 22

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.1%

Win Probability (After): 83.6%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q3 3:52 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 47) Blake Corum run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 45 - MICH 30, MSU 22 -1.01 83.6% -3.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 55

Started Drive at: MICH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.74 - 2.75 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): 8 (10.75)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 22

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.6%

Win Probability (After): 80.1%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 12 at MICH 45) Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 3 yds to the Mich 48 - MICH 30, MSU 22 -0.49 82.2% -5.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 52

Started Drive at: MICH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.27 - 1.75 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.75)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 22

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.2%

Win Probability (After): 77.2%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 9 at MICH 48) Cade McNamara pass incomplete - MICH 30, MSU 22 -1.65 81.5% -5.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: MICH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.38 - 1.27 = -1.65

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.27)

Score Difference (End): 8 (7.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 22

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.5%

Win Probability (After): 75.5%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q4 14:46 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 9 at MICH 48) Brad Robbins punt for 38 yds, downed at the MchSt 14 - MICH 30, MSU 22 0.44 77.5% 16.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 86

Started Drive at: MICH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.11 - -0.33 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): 8 (7.67)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.11)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 30, MSU 22

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.5%

Win Probability (After): 93.9%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:46 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 14) Payton Thorne pass incomplete - MICH 30, MSU 22 -0.65 6.3% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 86

Started Drive at: MSU 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.74 - -0.09 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-8.09)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 22

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.3%

Win Probability (After): 5.9%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q4 14:46 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 10 at MSU 14) Payton Thorne pass incomplete - MICH 30, MSU 20 -0.88 5.9% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 86

Started Drive at: MSU 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.61 - -0.74 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-8.74)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-11.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.9%

Win Probability (After): 3.5%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 22 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: -1 Defense Timeouts: -1

Q4 14:22 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 25) Timeout MICHIGAN ST, clock 14:22 - MICH 30, MSU 20 0.00 4.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSU 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.61 - -1.61 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-11.61)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-11.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.1%

Win Probability (After): 4.1%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 14:22 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 10 at MSU 14) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 11 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST down - MICH 30, MSU 20 1.84 3.6% 1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSU 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - -1.63 = 1.84

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-11.63)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.6%

Win Probability (After): 5.0%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 14:22 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 10 at MSU 25) Payton Thorne pass complete to Montorie Foster for 6 yds to the MchSt 31 - MICH 30, MSU 20 0.13 4.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69

Started Drive at: MSU 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.23 - -0.37 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.37)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.3%

Win Probability (After): 4.2%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 14:22 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 4 at MSU 31) Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 4 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST down - MICH 30, MSU 20 1.45 4.2% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSU 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - -0.23 = 1.45

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.23)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.2%

Win Probability (After): 5.4%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 14:22 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 35) Payton Thorne pass incomplete - MICH 30, MSU 20 -0.61 5.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSU 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.60 - 1.21 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.79)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 20

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.4%

Win Probability (After): 5.1%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 14:22 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 10 at MSU 35) Payton Thorne run for 7 yds to the MchSt 42 - MICH 30, MSU 20 0.19 5.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 58

Started Drive at: MSU 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - 0.60 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.40)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 20

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.1%

Win Probability (After): 5.2%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 12:29 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 3 at MSU 42) Kenneth Walker III 58 Yd Run (Payton Thorne Pass to Jayden Reed for Two-Point Conversion) - MICH 30, MSU 30 7.24 4.4% 17.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 0.76 = 7.24

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.24)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.4%

Win Probability (After): 22.1%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 20 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 12:29 ESPN team id 127 (1st & Goal at MICH 0) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 12:29 - MICH 30, MSU 30 0.00 33.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 0 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 8.00 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.92)

Score Difference (End): 0 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.0%

Win Probability (After): 33.0%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q4 12:29 ESPN team id 130 (Kickoff at MICH 35) Matt Coghlin kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MICH 30, MSU 28 -0.07 40.8% 12.3%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 1.14 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.14)

Score Difference (End): 2 (3.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.8%

Win Probability (After): 53.0%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 30 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 12:29 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 25) Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Mich 27 - MICH 30, MSU 28 -0.46 53.0% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.62 - 1.07 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 2 (3.07)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.0%

Win Probability (After): 52.6%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 12:29 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 8 at MICH 27) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete - MICH 30, MSU 30 -0.99 52.6% -17.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.37 - 0.62 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 34.8%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 28 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 12:29 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 8 at MICH 27) Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 43 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST down - MICH 30, MSU 30 4.51 34.8% 20.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 30

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.14 - -0.37 = 4.51

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.8%

Win Probability (After): 55.4%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 12:29 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MSU 30) Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 6 yds to the MchSt 24 - MICH 30, MSU 30 0.18 55.4% 3.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 24

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.32 - 4.14 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.4%

Win Probability (After): 58.6%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 12:29 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 4 at MSU 24) Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST down - MICH 30, MSU 30 0.35 58.6% 2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 20

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.67 - 4.32 = 0.35

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.32)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.6%

Win Probability (After): 60.9%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 12:29 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MSU 20) J.J. McCarthy run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 21 - MICH 30, MSU 30 -0.88 60.9% -6.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 21

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 4.67 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.67)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.9%

Win Probability (After): 54.8%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 12:29 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 11 at MSU 21) Cade McNamara run for 3 yds to the MchSt 18 - MICH 30, MSU 30 -0.34 54.8% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 18

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 3.79 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.79)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.8%

Win Probability (After): 53.1%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 12:29 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 8 at MSU 18) Cade McNamara pass incomplete - MICH 30, MSU 28 -1.27 53.1% 10.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 3.45 = -1.27

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.45)

Score Difference (End): 2 (4.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 30, MSU 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.1%

Win Probability (After): 63.3%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 30 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -2

Q4 9:20 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 8 at MSU 18) Jake Moody 36 Yd Field Goal - MICH 33, MSU 30 0.87 61.5% -5.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 65

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.13 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): 2 (4.13)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.5%

Win Probability (After): 56.5%

Away Score: 30 (33) Home Score: 28 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:20 ESPN team id 127 (Kickoff at MSU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 57 yds - MICH 33, MSU 30 0.00 16.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.87 - 0.87 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.13)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.2%

Win Probability (After): 16.2%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q4 9:20 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 25) Kenneth Walker III run for 8 yds to the MchSt 33 - MICH 33, MSU 30 0.56 16.2% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.43 - 0.87 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.13)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.2%

Win Probability (After): 16.4%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q4 9:20 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 2 at MSU 33) Payton Thorne sacked by Aidan Hutchinson for 0 yards to the MchSt 26 - MICH 33, MSU 30 -2.01 16.4% -3.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 74

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.57 - 1.43 = -2.01

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.57)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.4%

Win Probability (After): 13.1%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q4 9:20 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 9 at MSU 26) Payton Thorne sacked for 0 yards to the MchSt 21 - MICH 33, MSU 30 -1.54 13.1% -2.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 79

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.12 - -0.57 = -1.54

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.57)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-5.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.1%

Win Probability (After): 11.1%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -2 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q4 7:17 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 14 at MSU 21) Bryce Baringer punt for 58 yds , returns for no gain to the Mich 45 - MICH 33, MSU 30 -0.60 9.6% 24.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 55

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.59 - -1.99 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.99)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.59)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 33, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.6%

Win Probability (After): 33.7%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 7:17 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 45) Timeout MICHIGAN ST, clock 07:17 - MICH 33, MSU 30 0.00 68.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 2.59 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.59)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.7%

Win Probability (After): 68.7%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -4 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q4 7:12 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 45) J.J. McCarthy run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 41 fumbled, recovered by MchSt Jacub Panasiuk - MICH 33, MSU 30 -5.80 68.7% 4.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 41

Started Drive at: MICH 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.21 - 2.59 = -5.80

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.59)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.21)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 33, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.7%

Win Probability (After): 73.4%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -4

Q4 7:12 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MICH 41) MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jarrett Horst) to the Mich 49 - MICH 33, MSU 30 -1.64 26.6% -9.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 49

Started Drive at: MICH 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.58 - 3.21 = -1.64

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.21)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.6%

Win Probability (After): 16.8%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -4

Q4 7:12 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 18 at MICH 49) Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the Mich 48 - MICH 33, MSU 30 -0.62 18.9% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 48

Started Drive at: MICH 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.61 - 2.23 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.77)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.9%

Win Probability (After): 16.9%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -4

Q4 7:12 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 17 at MICH 48) Payton Thorne pass complete to Montorie Foster for 9 yds to the Mich 39 - MICH 33, MSU 30 0.43 16.9% 2.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 39

Started Drive at: MICH 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 1.61 = 0.43

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.39)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.9%

Win Probability (After): 19.7%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -4

Q4 7:12 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 8 at MICH 39) MICHIGAN Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Offsides on MORRIS, Mike enforced (5 Yards) to the Mich 34 - MICH 33, MSU 30 -3.34 19.7% -6.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.31 - 2.03 = -3.34

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.97)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.7%

Win Probability (After): 13.0%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -4

Q4 7:12 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 3 at MICH 34) run for 6 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST down - MICH 33, MSU 30 1.05 25.8% 6.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 28

Started Drive at: MICH 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.99 - 2.94 = 1.05

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.06)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.8%

Win Probability (After): 32.3%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -4

Q4 7:12 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MICH 28) WALKER III, Kenneth rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the MIC26 (MORRIS, Mike;HUTCHINSON, Aidan). PENALTY Before the snap, MIC Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the MIC28 to the MIC23. NO PLAY (replay the down). - MICH 33, MSU 30 0.49 32.3% 2.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 23

Started Drive at: MICH 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 3.99 = 0.49

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.99)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.3%

Win Probability (After): 35.0%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -4

Q4 7:12 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 5 at MICH 23) Payton Thorne pass incomplete - MICH 33, MSU 30 -0.41 35.0% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: MICH 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 4.49 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.49)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.0%

Win Probability (After): 33.3%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -4

Q4 7:12 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 8 at MICH 39) THORNE, Payton pass to the left incomplete intended for REED, Jayden thrown to the MIC5. PENALTY MIC Offsides on MORRIS, Mike enforced 5 yards from the MIC39 to the MIC34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - MICH 33, MSU 30 0.91 19.7% 6.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 34

Started Drive at: MICH 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.94 - 2.03 = 0.91

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.97)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 30

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.7%

Win Probability (After): 25.8%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -4

Q4 5:08 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 5 at MICH 23) Kenneth Walker III 23 Yd Run (Matt Coghlin Kick) - MICH 33, MSU 37 2.95 34.3% 10.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.05 = 2.95

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.05)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.3%

Win Probability (After): 44.7%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 30 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -4

Q4 5:08 ESPN team id 130 (Kickoff at MICH 35) Matt Coghlin kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MICH 33, MSU 37 0.00 20.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.14)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.7%

Win Probability (After): 20.7%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -4 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q4 5:08 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 10 at MICH 25) Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 7 yds to the Mich 32 - MICH 33, MSU 37 0.06 17.0% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 68

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 0.32 = 0.06

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.68)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.0%

Win Probability (After): 17.4%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -4 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q4 5:08 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 3 at MICH 32) Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 7 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST down - MICH 33, MSU 37 2.89 14.3% 10.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 61

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - -1.08 = 2.89

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-5.08)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.3%

Win Probability (After): 24.3%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -4 Defense Timeouts: -3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:08 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 39) Blake Corum run for no gain to the Mich 39 - MICH 33, MSU 37 -0.54 24.3% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.27 - 1.82 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.18)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.3%

Win Probability (After): 22.0%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -4 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q4 5:08 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 10 at MICH 39) Cade McNamara pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 12 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST down - MICH 33, MSU 37 1.33 22.0% 6.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 49

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.61 - 1.27 = 1.33

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.73)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.0%

Win Probability (After): 28.9%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -4 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q4 5:08 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MSU 49) Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 8 yds to the MchSt 41 - MICH 33, MSU 37 0.45 28.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 41

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.06 - 2.61 = 0.45

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.39)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.9%

Win Probability (After): 28.7%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -4 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q4 5:08 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 2 at MSU 41) Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST down - MICH 33, MSU 37 0.14 28.7% 3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 38

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.20 - 3.06 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.94)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.7%

Win Probability (After): 31.8%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -4 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q4 5:08 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MSU 38) Cade McNamara pass incomplete - MICH 33, MSU 37 -0.47 31.8% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 38

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.73 - 3.20 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.80)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.8%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -4 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q4 5:08 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 10 at MSU 38) Cade McNamara pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 7 yds to the MchSt 31 - MICH 33, MSU 37 0.38 29.8% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 31

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 2.73 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.27)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.8%

Win Probability (After): 30.2%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -4 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q4 5:08 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 3 at MSU 31) Cade McNamara pass incomplete - MICH 33, MSU 37 -1.81 30.2% -4.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 31

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.30 - 3.11 = -1.81

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.89)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.2%

Win Probability (After): 25.6%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -4 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q4 1:43 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 3 at MSU 31) Cade McNamara pass incomplete - MICH 33, MSU 37 -2.57 19.9% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 69

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.22 - 1.36 = -2.57

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.64)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.22)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.9%

Win Probability (After): 17.7%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -4

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:37 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 8 at MSU 33) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 01:37 - MICH 33, MSU 37 0.00 81.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: MSU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.75 - 0.75 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.75)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.2%

Win Probability (After): 81.2%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -5

Q4 1:37 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 31) Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 33 - MICH 33, MSU 37 -0.34 82.1% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 67

Started Drive at: MSU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.75 - 1.08 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.08)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.1%

Win Probability (After): 81.2%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -5

Q4 1:33 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 6 at MSU 35) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 01:33 - MICH 33, MSU 37 0.00 79.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.75 - 0.75 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.75)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.3%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -6

Q4 1:33 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 8 at MSU 33) run for 2 yds to the MchSt 35 - MICH 33, MSU 37 -0.30 81.5% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 0.74 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.74)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.5%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -6

Q4 1:33 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 6 at MSU 35) Payton Thorne run for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 29 - MICH 33, MSU 37 -1.08 79.3% -15.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 71

Started Drive at: MSU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.64 - 0.44 = -1.08

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.44)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.3%

Win Probability (After): 63.8%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -6

Q4 1:15 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 12 at MSU 29) Bryce Baringer punt for 53 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 15 yds to the Mich 33 - MICH 33, MSU 37 -0.70 76.7% 9.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 67

Started Drive at: MSU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.00 - -0.29 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.71)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.7%

Win Probability (After): 85.7%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -6 Defense Timeouts: -3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:15 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 33) MCNAMARA, Cade pass to the left incomplete intended for ANTHONY, Andrel thrown to the MIC37. PENALTY MSU Roughing the Passer on JORDAN, Drew enforced 15 yards from the MIC33 to the MIC48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - MICH 33, MSU 37 0.47 14.3% 4.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 52

Started Drive at: MICH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - 1.06 = 0.47

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.94)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.3%

Win Probability (After): 18.4%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -6 Defense Timeouts: -3

Q4 1:00 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 48) Cade McNamara pass intercepted return for no gain to the MchSt 40 - MICH 33, MSU 37 -2.72 17.5% 82.5%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 60

Started Drive at: MICH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.37 - 1.35 = -2.72

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.65)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.37)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MICH 33, MSU 37

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 37 (37)

Pos Team Timeouts: -3 Defense Timeouts: -6