Northwestern 7 @ Michigan 33

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 2.25 | Odds: MICH -23.5, O/U 51.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 77 ESPN team id 130
Total Plays 7094
Total EPA -21.563.99
  Offensive EPA -14.874.76
  Special Teams EPA -7.83-0.92
  Penalty EPA 1.140.15
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 0.000.00
Production ESPN team id 77 ESPN team id 130
Scrimmage Plays 5586
  Yards 256457
  Yards/Play 4.655.31
  EPA -14.874.76
  EPA/Play -0.270.06
Passes 33 (60%)33 (38%)
  Yards 133163
  Yards/Play 4.034.94
  EPA -11.32-6.24
  EPA/Play -0.34-0.19
Rushes 22 (40%)53 (62%)
  Yards 112304
  Yards/Play 5.095.74
  EPA -3.5511.00
  EPA/Play -0.160.21
Rushing ESPN team id 77 ESPN team id 130
Scrimmage Plays 5586
Rushes 22 (40%)53 (62%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 2 (9%)2 (4%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 0 (0%)2 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 7 (32%)4 (8%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 16 (73%)16 (30%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 6 (27%)30 (57%)
OL Line Yards 13.3107.8
  Per Carry 0.602.03
Highlight Yards 76.588.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 12.752.95
Explosiveness ESPN team id 77 ESPN team id 130
Total Plays 7094
Scrimmage Plays 5586
Explosive Plays 3 (5%)4 (5%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 2 (6%)2 (6%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 1 (5%)2 (4%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -26.76-5.32
  EPA/Play -0.51-0.06
  When Passing -17.27-11.51
    EPA/Play -0.52-0.35
  When Rushing -9.486.19
    EPA/Play -0.450.12
Situational ESPN team id 77 ESPN team id 130
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 18 (33%)43 (50%)
  When Passing 11 (33%)14 (42%)
  When Rushing 7 (32%)29 (55%)
  On Standard Downs 9 (29%)33 (52%)
  On Passing Downs 9 (38%)10 (45%)
  On Early Downs 13 (33%)30 (46%)
  On Late Downs 5 (31%)13 (62%)
  During "Middle 8" 2 (67%)11 (52%)
Early Downs 3965
  First Downs Created 3 (8%)12 (18%)
  EPA -9.01-3.98
  EPA/Play -0.23-0.06
  Passes 21 (54%)22 (34%)
  Rushes 18 (46%)43 (66%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 7 (33%)9 (41%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 6 (33%)21 (49%)
"Middle 8" Plays 321
  EPA 5.950.58
  EPA/play 1.980.03
  Passes 0 (0%)8 (38%)
  Rushes 3 (100%)13 (62%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 0 (0%)3 (38%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 2 (67%)8 (62%)
Drives ESPN team id 77 ESPN team id 130
Total 1312
Avg Starting Field Position Own 24Own 33
Plays/Drive 6.189.69
Yards/Drive 24.8248.31
Available Yards % 33%72%
Defensive ESPN team id 77 ESPN team id 130
Scrimmage Plays 8655
Stop Rate 37%53%
Havoc Plays Created 3 (3%)8 (15%)
  Passing 2 (6%)4 (12%)
  Rushing 1 (2%)4 (18%)
TFLs Generated 27
  Passing 13
  Rushing 14
Sacks Generated 1 (3%)1 (3%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 01
Fumbles Forced 10
Turnovers ESPN team id 77 ESPN team id 130
Turnovers 22
  Fumbles 32
  Fumbles Lost 12
  Fumbles Recovered 20
  Interceptions 10
Turnover Margin 00
Expected Turnovers 2.72.5
Expected Turnover Margin -0.20.2
Turnover Luck (pts) 1.1-1.1
Special Teams ESPN team id 77 ESPN team id 130
Total Plays 15 8
Total EPA -7.83 -0.92
  Field Goal EPA -3.74 -1.16
  Punting EPA -3.21 0.16
  Kickoff Return EPA -0.89 0.08

Northwestern [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Carl Richardson 2/3, 19 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 15.9 xQBR 6.33 1.01 3.04 100% 0.0%
Ryan Hilinski 14/29, 114 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 1 Sck, 31.3 xQBR 3.80 -0.48 -14.36 27% -6.0%
Rush attempts
Evan Hull 6 carries, 81 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.50 0.34 2.04 17% 3.0%
Marcus Cisco 3 carries, 25 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.33 0.51 1.53 67% 0.0%
Malik Washington 1 carry, 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.39 0.39 100% 0.0%
Ryan Hilinski 1 carry, 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 0.09 0.09 100% 0.0%
Andrew Clair 2 carries, 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 0.01 0.02 50% 1.0%
Jake Arthurs 2 carries, -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -0.50 -0.54 -1.08 0% 0.0%
TEAM 2 carries, -7 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) -3.50 -0.64 -1.28 0% -2.0%
Anthony Tyus III 4 carries, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.75 -0.37 -1.49 25% 0.0%
Carl Richardson 1 carry, -2 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) -2.00 -3.78 -3.78 0% 0.0%
Pass targets
Evan Hull 2 catches (2 targets), 27 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.50 1.18 2.37 50% 2.0%
Malik Washington 6 catches (6 targets), 63 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.50 0.37 2.22 67% 3.0%
Anthony Tyus III 1 catch (1 target), 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.00 2.05 2.05 100% 0.0%
Marshall Lang 1 catch (1 target), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 1.10 1.10 100% 1.0%
Jordan Mosley 1 catch (1 target), 7 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.77 0.77 100% 0.0%
Jacob Gill 1 catch (3 targets), 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.00 -0.17 -0.51 33% 1.0%
Trey Pugh 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.55 -0.55 0% 0.0%
Genson Hooper Price 1 catch (2 targets), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 -0.49 -0.98 50% -1.0%
Wayne Dennis Jr. 1 catch (1 target), -2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -2.00 -1.07 -1.07 0% -2.0%
JJ Jefferson 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.87 -1.74 0% -1.0%
Stephon Robinson Jr. 2 catches (2 targets), 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.50 -1.03 -2.06 0% -4.0%

Michigan [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Cade McNamara 20/27, 129 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 55.9 xQBR 4.61 -0.10 -2.79 43% -2.0%
J.J. McCarthy 3/5, 34 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 45.9 xQBR 6.80 -0.69 -3.45 40% 0.0%
Rush attempts
Blake Corum 19 carries, 119 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.26 0.27 5.20 53% 11.0%
Hassan Haskins 23 carries, 110 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.78 0.21 4.73 57% 4.0%
J.J. McCarthy 2 carries, 36 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 18.00 1.08 2.15 100% 0.0%
A.J. Henning 1 carry, 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.18 0.18 100% 1.0%
Cornelius Johnson 1 carry, 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.06 0.06 100% 0.0%
Andrel Anthony 1 carry, 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 -0.19 -0.19 0% 0.0%
Cade McNamara 1 carry, 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.35 -0.35 0% -1.0%
Donovan Edwards 5 carries, 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.60 -0.16 -0.79 40% 1.0%
Pass targets
Cornelius Johnson 3 catches (6 targets), 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 0.61 3.64 50% 1.0%
Blake Corum 4 catches (4 targets), 23 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.75 0.36 1.43 75% 3.0%
Erick All 5 catches (6 targets), 34 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.80 0.21 1.23 50% 2.0%
A.J. Henning 2 catches (2 targets), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.50 0.19 0.37 50% 1.0%
Luke Schoonmaker 2 catches (3 targets), 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.50 0.12 0.35 67% 0.0%
Roman Wilson 2 catches (2 targets), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.52 -1.05 0% 0.0%
Daylen Baldwin 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.11 -2.22 0% -1.0%
Mike Sainristil 4 catches (6 targets), 33 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 8.25 -0.49 -2.95 33% -7.0%
Donovan Edwards 1 catch (1 target), 11 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 11.00 -4.70 -4.70 0% 0.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 2:22 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at NU 25) Evan Hull run for 75 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) - NU 7, MICH 10 5.93 4.1% 5.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.07 = 5.93

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.93)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.1%

Win Probability (After): 9.2%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:46 ESPN team id 77 (2nd & 10 at NU 30) Ryan Hilinski pass intercepted DJ Turner return for 23 yds to the Nwest 15 - NU 7, MICH 27 -4.70 0.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 15

Started Drive at: NU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -5.41 - -0.70 = -4.70

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-20.70)

Score Difference (End): 20 (25.41)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 7, MICH 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:38 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 45) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 11 yds Donovan Edwards fumbled, forced by Coco Azema, recovered by Nwest A.J. Hampton Jr. - NU 7, MICH 33 -4.70 100.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 56

Started Drive at: MICH 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.24 - 3.46 = -4.70

Score Difference (Before): 26 (29.46)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-24.76)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:15 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & Goal at NU 3) Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 1 yd Mike Sainristil fumbled, recovered by Nwest - NU 7, MICH 10 -4.12 92.7% -5.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 98

Started Drive at: MICH 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 4.10 = -4.12

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.10)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.99)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.7%

Win Probability (After): 86.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 9:08 ESPN team id 77 (4th & 1 at MICH 47) Carl Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 49 Carl Richardson fumbled, recovered by Mich - NU 7, MICH 33 -3.78 0.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 51

Started Drive at: NU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.38 - 0.40 = -3.78

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-25.60)

Score Difference (End): 26 (29.38)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:59 ESPN team id 77 (4th & 12 at MICH 21) Charlie Kuhbander 39 yd FG MISSED - NU 7, MICH 17 -3.74 5.3% -0.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 79

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.72 - 2.01 = -3.74

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.99)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.72)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.3%

Win Probability (After): 4.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:42 ESPN team id 77 (3rd & 16 at NU 14) Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 26 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 17 3.53 4.5% 2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 60

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.23 - -2.30 = 3.53

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-12.30)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.5%

Win Probability (After): 6.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:01 ESPN team id 77 (4th & 4 at NU 31) Derek Adams punt blocked by Cornelius Johnson blocked by Cornelius Johnson Caden Kolesar return for 9 yds to the Nwest 24 - NU 7, MICH 17 -2.73 4.3% -1.8%

Play Type: Blocked Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 24

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.61 - -1.89 = -2.73

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-11.89)

Score Difference (End): 10 (14.61)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.3%

Win Probability (After): 2.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 8:22 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 11 at NU 48) Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 12 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST down - NU 0, MICH 7 2.72 94.7% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 36

Started Drive at: MICH 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.84 - 1.12 = 2.72

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.12)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.7%

Win Probability (After): 95.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 12:15 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 5 at MICH 45) Blake Corum run for 24 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 10 2.61 89.6% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 31

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.14 - 1.52 = 2.61

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.52)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.6%

Win Probability (After): 92.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 0:15 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & Goal at NU 3) Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 1 yd Mike Sainristil fumbled, recovered by Nwest - NU 7, MICH 10 -4.12 92.7% -5.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 98

Started Drive at: MICH 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 4.10 = -4.12

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.10)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.99)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.7%

Win Probability (After): 86.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 2:22 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at NU 25) Evan Hull run for 75 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) - NU 7, MICH 10 5.93 4.1% 5.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.07 = 5.93

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.93)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.1%

Win Probability (After): 9.2%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 3:21 ESPN team id 77 (4th & 10 at NU 34) Derek Adams punt for 45 yds , A.J. Henning returns for no gain to the Mich 21 - NU 0, MICH 0 0.31 7.7% 4.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 79

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.85 - -1.16 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.85)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.7%

Win Probability (After): 11.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:55 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 11 at MICH 28) Brad Robbins punt for 48 yds , JJ Jefferson returns for 9 yds to the Nwest 33 - NU 0, MICH 0 0.18 88.0% 3.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 67

Started Drive at: MICH 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.82 - -2.00 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.00)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.82)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.0%

Win Probability (After): 91.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:11 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 5 at MICH 26) Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 7 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST down - NU 0, MICH 0 1.91 87.2% 3.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 67

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.79 - -0.11 = 1.91

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.2%

Win Probability (After): 90.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:13 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 4 at NU 47) Brad Robbins punt for 47 yds for a touchback - NU 0, MICH 0 -0.74 91.8% -3.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 80

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.77 - -0.04 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.04)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.77)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.8%

Win Probability (After): 88.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:27 ESPN team id 77 (2nd & 9 at NU 21) Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 8 yds to the Nwest 29 - NU 0, MICH 0 0.67 8.4% 3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 71

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 0.16 = 0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.4%

Win Probability (After): 11.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:15 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 5 at MICH 45) Blake Corum run for 24 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 10 2.61 89.6% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 31

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.14 - 1.52 = 2.61

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.52)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.6%

Win Probability (After): 92.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:45 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at MICH 34) MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Mich 19 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 17 1.14 6.4% 2.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 19

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 3.20 = 1.14

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.80)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 9.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:40 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at NU 33) Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 4 yds to the Nwest 37 - NU 0, MICH 0 -0.21 9.1% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 63

Started Drive at: NU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.54 - 1.75 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.75)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.1%

Win Probability (After): 6.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 12:49 ESPN team id 130 (1st & Goal at NU 1) Blake Corum run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) - NU 0, MICH 7 0.49 92.0% 2.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.51 = 0.49

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.51)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.0%

Win Probability (After): 94.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:33 ESPN team id 130 (4th & Goal at NU 2) Jake Moody 20 yd FG GOOD - NU 0, MICH 10 -0.29 95.8% 1.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 2

Started Drive at: MICH 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.29 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.29)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:22 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at NU 25) Evan Hull run for 75 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) - NU 7, MICH 10 5.93 4.1% 5.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.07 = 5.93

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.93)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.1%

Win Probability (After): 9.2%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 11:36 ESPN team id 130 (1st & Goal at NU 5) Blake Corum run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) - NU 7, MICH 17 1.09 93.8% 2.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.91 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.91)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.8%

Win Probability (After): 96.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:50 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at NU 13) Hassan Haskins run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) - NU 7, MICH 24 1.75 97.8% 1.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: NU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.25 = 1.75

Score Difference (Before): 10 (15.25)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:40 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 3 at NU 26) Jake Moody 44 yd FG GOOD - NU 7, MICH 27 0.74 99.1% 0.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: MICH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.26 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): 17 (19.26)

Score Difference (End): 20 (20.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 27

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 13:20 ESPN team id 130 (1st & Goal at NU 4) Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) - NU 7, MICH 33 -0.17 99.9% 0.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: NU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 6.17 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): 20 (26.17)

Score Difference (End): 26 (26.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 77 (Kickoff at NU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 61 yds for a touchback - NU 0, MICH 0 0.00 4.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.8%

Win Probability (After): 4.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:57 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at NU 25) Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 29 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST down - NU 0, MICH 0 2.43 4.9% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 46

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.06 - 0.64 = 2.43

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.9%

Win Probability (After): 6.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:12 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at MICH 46) Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Mich 44 - NU 0, MICH 0 -1.01 6.4% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 44

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.16 - 3.17 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 5.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:00 ESPN team id 77 (2nd & 8 at MICH 44) Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 47 - NU 0, MICH 0 -1.85 6.4% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 47

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - 2.67 = -1.85

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.67)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 5.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:22 ESPN team id 77 (3rd & 11 at MICH 47) Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete - NU 0, MICH 0 -1.43 6.6% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.55 - 0.88 = -1.43

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.88)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.6%

Win Probability (After): 4.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:10 ESPN team id 77 (4th & 11 at MICH 47) Derek Adams punt for 45 yds, downed at the Mich 2 - NU 0, MICH 0 1.45 6.0% 2.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 98

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.88 - -0.57 = 1.45

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.88)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.0%

Win Probability (After): 8.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 13:06 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 2) Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mich 4 - NU 0, MICH 0 -0.16 91.8% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 96

Started Drive at: MICH 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.99 - -0.83 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.83)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.8%

Win Probability (After): 92.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:51 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 8 at MICH 4) Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Mich 6 - NU 0, MICH 0 -0.64 91.1% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 94

Started Drive at: MICH 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.70 - -1.05 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.1%

Win Probability (After): 91.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:14 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 6 at MICH 6) Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 6 yds to the Mich 12 for a 1ST down - NU 0, MICH 0 1.99 90.4% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 88

Started Drive at: MICH 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.32 - -1.67 = 1.99

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.67)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.4%

Win Probability (After): 91.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:51 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 12) A.J. Henning run for 5 yds to the Mich 17 - NU 0, MICH 0 0.18 91.2% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 83

Started Drive at: MICH 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.40 - 0.22 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.22)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.2%

Win Probability (After): 91.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:59 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 5 at MICH 17) Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 12 yds to the Mich 29 for a 1ST down - NU 0, MICH 0 1.08 91.6% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 71

Started Drive at: MICH 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 0.39 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.39)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.6%

Win Probability (After): 91.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:38 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 29) Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 32 - NU 0, MICH 0 -0.67 93.9% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 68

Started Drive at: MICH 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.96 - 1.63 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.9%

Win Probability (After): 91.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:20 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 7 at MICH 32) Cade McNamara sacked by Brandon Joseph for a loss of 10 yards to the Mich 22 - NU 0, MICH 0 -2.34 94.1% -1.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 78

Started Drive at: MICH 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.22 - 1.12 = -2.34

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.12)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.1%

Win Probability (After): 92.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:28 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 17 at MICH 22) Cade McNamara pass complete to Blake Corum for 6 yds to the Mich 28 - NU 0, MICH 0 -0.57 91.5% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 72

Started Drive at: MICH 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.80 - -1.24 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.24)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.5%

Win Probability (After): 92.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:55 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 11 at MICH 28) Brad Robbins punt for 48 yds , JJ Jefferson returns for 9 yds to the Nwest 33 - NU 0, MICH 0 0.18 88.0% 3.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 67

Started Drive at: MICH 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.82 - -2.00 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.00)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.82)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.0%

Win Probability (After): 91.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:40 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at NU 33) Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 4 yds to the Nwest 37 - NU 0, MICH 0 -0.21 9.1% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 63

Started Drive at: NU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.54 - 1.75 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.75)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.1%

Win Probability (After): 6.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:20 ESPN team id 77 (2nd & 6 at NU 37) Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete - NU 0, MICH 0 -0.96 8.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: NU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.62 - 1.58 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.58)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.5%

Win Probability (After): 8.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:13 ESPN team id 77 (3rd & 6 at NU 37) Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 2 yds to the Nwest 39 - NU 0, MICH 0 -1.41 8.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 61

Started Drive at: NU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.73 - 0.68 = -1.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.68)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.3%

Win Probability (After): 7.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:30 ESPN team id 77 (4th & 4 at NU 39) Derek Adams punt for 35 yds, downed at the Mich 26 - NU 0, MICH 0 -0.54 7.3% 2.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 74

Started Drive at: NU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.36 - -0.83 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.83)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.36)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.3%

Win Probability (After): 9.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 7:19 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 26) Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 7 yds to the Mich 33 - NU 0, MICH 0 0.27 92.2% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 67

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.61 - 1.34 = 0.27

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.2%

Win Probability (After): 90.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:49 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 3 at MICH 33) Hassan Haskins run for 14 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST down - NU 0, MICH 0 0.90 93.0% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 53

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 1.70 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.70)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.0%

Win Probability (After): 93.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:24 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 47) Timeout NORTHWESTERN, clock 06:24 - NU 0, MICH 0 0.00 93.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 2.59 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.59)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.4%

Win Probability (After): 93.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 6:17 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 47) Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Mike Sainristil - NU 0, MICH 0 -0.64 93.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.98 - 2.62 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.6%

Win Probability (After): 93.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 6:09 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 10 at MICH 47) Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius Johnson - NU 0, MICH 0 -0.95 93.2% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 1.98 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.2%

Win Probability (After): 92.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:43 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 10 at MICH 47) Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 6 yds to the Nwest 47 - NU 0, MICH 0 -1.06 92.2% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 47

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 1.03 = -1.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.03)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.2%

Win Probability (After): 91.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:13 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 4 at NU 47) Brad Robbins punt for 47 yds for a touchback - NU 0, MICH 0 -0.74 91.8% -3.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 80

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.77 - -0.04 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.04)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.77)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.8%

Win Probability (After): 88.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 5:05 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at NU 20) Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 21 - NU 0, MICH 0 -0.62 12.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 79

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.16 - 0.78 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.0%

Win Probability (After): 11.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:27 ESPN team id 77 (2nd & 9 at NU 21) Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 8 yds to the Nwest 29 - NU 0, MICH 0 0.67 8.4% 3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 71

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 0.16 = 0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.4%

Win Probability (After): 11.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:16 ESPN team id 77 (3rd & 1 at NU 29) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 04:16 - NU 0, MICH 0 0.00 8.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 0.83 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.83)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.5%

Win Probability (After): 8.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 3:54 ESPN team id 77 (3rd & 1 at NU 29) Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Marshall Lang for 5 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST down - NU 0, MICH 0 1.10 8.2% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 66

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.92 - 0.82 = 1.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.82)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.2%

Win Probability (After): 9.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 3:45 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at NU 34) Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete - NU 0, MICH 0 -0.68 9.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.24 - 1.92 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.92)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.4%

Win Probability (After): 8.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 3:37 ESPN team id 77 (2nd & 10 at NU 34) Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to JJ Jefferson - NU 0, MICH 0 -0.92 8.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.32 - 1.24 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.24)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.3%

Win Probability (After): 8.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 3:31 ESPN team id 77 (3rd & 10 at NU 34) Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Jacob Gill - NU 0, MICH 0 -1.47 8.0% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.16 - 0.31 = -1.47

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.31)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.0%

Win Probability (After): 7.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 3:21 ESPN team id 77 (4th & 10 at NU 34) Derek Adams punt for 45 yds , A.J. Henning returns for no gain to the Mich 21 - NU 0, MICH 0 0.31 7.7% 4.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 79

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.85 - -1.16 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.85)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.7%

Win Probability (After): 11.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 3:15 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 21) Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Mich 22 - NU 0, MICH 0 -0.66 89.2% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 78

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 0.86 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.2%

Win Probability (After): 88.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 2:39 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 9 at MICH 22) Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Mich 26 - NU 0, MICH 0 -0.35 89.0% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 74

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.13 - 0.22 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.22)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.0%

Win Probability (After): 88.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 2:11 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 5 at MICH 26) Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 7 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST down - NU 0, MICH 0 1.91 87.2% 3.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 67

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.79 - -0.11 = 1.91

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.2%

Win Probability (After): 90.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 1:29 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 33) Hassan Haskins run for 19 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST down - NU 0, MICH 0 1.16 90.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 48

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.02 - 1.86 = 1.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.4%

Win Probability (After): 90.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 0:42 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at NU 48) Hassan Haskins run for 5 yds to the Nwest 43 - NU 0, MICH 0 0.08 90.5% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 43

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.15 - 3.06 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.5%

Win Probability (After): 91.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 0:28 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 5 at NU 43) Cade McNamara pass complete to A.J. Henning for 14 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST down - NU 0, MICH 0 1.05 90.5% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 29

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.19 - 3.14 = 1.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.5%

Win Probability (After): 91.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:45 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at NU 29) Cade McNamara pass complete to Blake Corum for 6 yds to the Nwest 23 - NU 0, MICH 0 0.26 92.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 23

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.44 - 4.19 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.7%

Win Probability (After): 92.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:25 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 4 at NU 23) Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Nwest 21 - NU 0, MICH 0 -0.25 90.1% 2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 21

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.19 - 4.45 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.45)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.1%

Win Probability (After): 92.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:36 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 2 at NU 21) Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST down - NU 0, MICH 0 0.65 90.0% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 18

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.85 - 4.20 = 0.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.20)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.0%

Win Probability (After): 90.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:15 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at NU 18) Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius Johnson - NU 0, MICH 0 -0.64 90.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.23 - 4.87 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.87)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:03 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 10 at NU 18) Cornelius Johnson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 12 - NU 0, MICH 0 0.06 90.5% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 12

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 4.23 = 0.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.23)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.5%

Win Probability (After): 90.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:52 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 4 at NU 12) Blake Corum run for 11 yds to the Nwest 1 for a 1ST down - NU 0, MICH 0 2.20 90.7% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 1

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.51 - 4.31 = 2.20

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.31)

Score Difference (End): 0 (6.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.7%

Win Probability (After): 91.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:49 ESPN team id 130 (1st & Goal at NU 1) Blake Corum run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) - NU 0, MICH 7 0.49 92.0% 2.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.51 = 0.49

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.51)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.0%

Win Probability (After): 94.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:49 ESPN team id 77 (Kickoff at NU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NU 0, MICH 7 0.00 5.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 0.13 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.87)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.9%

Win Probability (After): 5.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:44 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at NU 25) Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Trey Pugh - NU 0, MICH 7 -0.55 6.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.42 - 0.13 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.87)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.1%

Win Probability (After): 5.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:25 ESPN team id 77 (2nd & 10 at NU 25) Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27 - NU 0, MICH 7 -0.89 5.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.23 - -0.34 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.34)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.8%

Win Probability (After): 5.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:29 ESPN team id 77 (3rd & 8 at NU 27) Ryan Hilinski sacked by Mike Morris and Aidan Hutchinson for a loss of 12 yards to the Nwest 15 - NU 0, MICH 7 -1.88 5.1% -1.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 85

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.86 - -0.98 = -1.88

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.98)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.1%

Win Probability (After): 4.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:17 ESPN team id 77 (4th & 20 at NU 15) Derek Adams punt for 42 yds , A.J. Henning returns for no gain to the Mich 43 - NU 0, MICH 7 -0.49 3.9% 0.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 57

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.09 - -2.61 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.61)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.09)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.9%

Win Probability (After): 4.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:10 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 43) Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Luke Schoonmaker - NU 0, MICH 7 -0.49 96.2% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: MICH 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 3.07 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.07)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.2%

Win Probability (After): 95.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:51 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 10 at MICH 43) Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 4 yds to the Mich 47 - NU 0, MICH 7 -0.54 95.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 53

Started Drive at: MICH 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.04 - 2.58 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.58)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.8%

Win Probability (After): 95.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:05 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 6 at MICH 47) Cade McNamara pass complete to Blake Corum for 6 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST down - NU 0, MICH 7 1.57 94.4% 2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 47

Started Drive at: MICH 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.60 - 2.03 = 1.57

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.03)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.4%

Win Probability (After): 96.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:52 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at NU 47) MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 48 - NU 0, MICH 7 -0.60 95.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 52

Started Drive at: MICH 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 3.51 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.51)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.5%

Win Probability (After): 95.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:18 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 15 at MICH 48) Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for no gain to the Mich 48 - NU 0, MICH 7 -0.51 95.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: MICH 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 2.67 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.67)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.1%

Win Probability (After): 94.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:35 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 15 at MICH 48) Cade McNamara run for 4 yds to the Nwest 48 - NU 0, MICH 7 -0.35 95.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 48

Started Drive at: MICH 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 1.82 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.82)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.0%

Win Probability (After): 94.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:22 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 11 at NU 48) Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 12 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST down - NU 0, MICH 7 2.72 94.7% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 36

Started Drive at: MICH 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.84 - 1.12 = 2.72

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.12)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.7%

Win Probability (After): 95.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:42 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at NU 36) Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Nwest 33 - NU 0, MICH 7 -0.27 95.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 33

Started Drive at: MICH 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.53 - 3.80 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.80)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.8%

Win Probability (After): 95.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:42 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 7 at NU 33) Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the Nwest 27 - NU 0, MICH 7 0.29 95.1% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 27

Started Drive at: MICH 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.03 - 3.74 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.74)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.1%

Win Probability (After): 95.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:12 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 1 at NU 27) Hassan Haskins run for 6 yds to the Nwest 21 for a 1ST down - NU 0, MICH 7 0.57 95.7% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 21

Started Drive at: MICH 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.69 - 4.12 = 0.57

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.12)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:45 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at NU 21) Hassan Haskins run for 5 yds to the Nwest 16 - NU 0, MICH 7 0.38 96.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 16

Started Drive at: MICH 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.84 - 4.46 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.46)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.4%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:24 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 5 at NU 16) Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Nwest 14 - NU 0, MICH 7 -0.41 96.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 14

Started Drive at: MICH 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 4.70 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.70)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.4%

Win Probability (After): 96.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:51 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 3 at NU 14) Hassan Haskins run for 6 yds to the Nwest 8 for a 1ST down - NU 0, MICH 7 1.19 96.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 8

Started Drive at: MICH 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.38 - 4.19 = 1.19

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.19)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:02 ESPN team id 130 (1st & Goal at NU 8) Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the Nwest 4 - NU 0, MICH 7 0.17 97.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 4

Started Drive at: MICH 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.41 - 5.25 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.25)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.1%

Win Probability (After): 97.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:25 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & Goal at NU 4) Cade McNamara pass complete to A.J. Henning for 1 yd to the Nwest 3 - NU 0, MICH 7 -0.68 96.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 3

Started Drive at: MICH 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.71 - 5.39 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.39)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.8%

Win Probability (After): 96.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:51 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & Goal at NU 3) Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 1 yd to the Nwest 2 - NU 0, MICH 7 -1.22 96.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 2

Started Drive at: MICH 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.40 - 4.62 = -1.22

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.62)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.4%

Win Probability (After): 95.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:36 ESPN team id 130 (4th & Goal at NU 2) Timeout NORTHWESTERN, clock 02:36 - NU 0, MICH 7 0.00 96.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 2

Started Drive at: MICH 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.40 - 3.40 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.40)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 7

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:33 ESPN team id 130 (4th & Goal at NU 2) Jake Moody 20 yd FG GOOD - NU 0, MICH 10 -0.29 95.8% 1.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 2

Started Drive at: MICH 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.29 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.29)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:33 ESPN team id 77 (Kickoff at NU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 59 yds for a touchback - NU 0, MICH 10 0.00 3.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.94 - 0.94 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.06)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 0, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.7%

Win Probability (After): 3.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:22 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at NU 25) Evan Hull run for 75 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) - NU 7, MICH 10 5.93 4.1% 5.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.07 = 5.93

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.93)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.1%

Win Probability (After): 9.2%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:16 ESPN team id 130 (Kickoff at MICH 35) Charlie Kuhbander kickoff for 65 yds , Mike Sainristil return for 23 yds to the Mich 23 - NU 7, MICH 10 -0.06 88.5% 0.3%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 77

Started Drive at: MICH 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.17 - 1.23 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.23)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.5%

Win Probability (After): 88.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 2:05 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 23) Blake Corum run for 20 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 10 0.74 88.6% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 57

Started Drive at: MICH 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.85 - 1.11 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.11)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.6%

Win Probability (After): 89.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:46 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 43) Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line - NU 7, MICH 10 0.27 89.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 50

Started Drive at: MICH 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.85 - 1.59 = 0.27

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.59)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.7%

Win Probability (After): 89.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:34 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 3 at 50) Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 10 0.31 89.6% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 46

Started Drive at: MICH 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 1.56 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.56)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:25 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at NU 46) Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 10 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 10 0.80 90.0% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 36

Started Drive at: MICH 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.50 - 1.70 = 0.80

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.70)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.0%

Win Probability (After): 90.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:19 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at NU 36) Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Daylen Baldwin - NU 7, MICH 10 -0.32 91.0% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: MICH 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.16 - 2.48 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.48)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.0%

Win Probability (After): 90.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:10 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 10 at NU 36) Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the Nwest 30 - NU 7, MICH 10 0.19 90.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 30

Started Drive at: MICH 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 2.25 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.25)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:01 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 4 at NU 30) Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 3 yds to the Nwest 27 - NU 7, MICH 10 -0.39 90.7% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 27

Started Drive at: MICH 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 2.46 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.46)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.7%

Win Probability (After): 89.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:54 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 1 at NU 27) Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 10 1.38 89.3% 2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 25

Started Drive at: MICH 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.36 - 1.98 = 1.38

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.98)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.3%

Win Probability (After): 91.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:47 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at NU 25) Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 16 yds to the Nwest 9 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 10 1.27 91.3% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 9

Started Drive at: MICH 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.60 - 3.34 = 1.27

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.34)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.3%

Win Probability (After): 92.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:31 ESPN team id 130 (1st & Goal at NU 9) Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 3 yds to the Nwest 6 - NU 7, MICH 10 0.04 93.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 6

Started Drive at: MICH 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.51 - 4.47 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.47)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.0%

Win Probability (After): 93.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:23 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & Goal at NU 6) Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Nwest 3 - NU 7, MICH 10 -0.13 93.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 3

Started Drive at: MICH 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.32 - 4.45 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.45)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.1%

Win Probability (After): 92.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:23 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & Goal at NU 3) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 00:23 - NU 7, MICH 10 0.00 92.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 3

Started Drive at: MICH 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.32 - 4.32 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.32)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.6%

Win Probability (After): 92.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:15 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & Goal at NU 3) Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 1 yd Mike Sainristil fumbled, recovered by Nwest - NU 7, MICH 10 -4.12 92.7% -5.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 98

Started Drive at: MICH 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 4.10 = -4.12

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.10)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.99)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.7%

Win Probability (After): 86.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:10 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at NU 2) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 1 - NU 7, MICH 10 -0.06 13.0% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 99

Started Drive at: NU 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.08 - -0.02 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.02)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.0%

Win Probability (After): 11.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:05 ESPN team id 77 (2nd & 11 at NU 1) Ryan Hilinski run for 1 yd to the Nwest 2 - NU 7, MICH 10 0.09 11.5% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 99 -> 98

Started Drive at: NU 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - -0.09 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.09)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.5%

Win Probability (After): 11.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 14:50 ESPN team id 130 (Kickoff at MICH 35) Charlie Kuhbander kickoff for 57 yds , Blake Corum return for 18 yds to the Mich 26 - NU 7, MICH 10 0.14 91.0% -1.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 74

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.55 - 1.41 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.41)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.0%

Win Probability (After): 89.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:32 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 26) Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 27 - NU 7, MICH 10 -0.74 90.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 73

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.93 - 1.66 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.66)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.5%

Win Probability (After): 90.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:05 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 9 at MICH 27) Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 30 - NU 7, MICH 10 -0.43 89.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 70

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - 0.95 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.95)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.4%

Win Probability (After): 89.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:38 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 6 at MICH 30) NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Mich 40 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 10 2.02 89.1% 2.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 60

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.55 - 0.53 = 2.02

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.53)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.1%

Win Probability (After): 91.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:19 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 40) Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the Mich 40 - NU 7, MICH 10 -0.62 90.9% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.89 - 2.52 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.52)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.9%

Win Probability (After): 90.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:49 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 10 at MICH 40) Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mich 45 - NU 7, MICH 10 -0.33 90.4% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 55

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.57 - 1.90 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.90)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.4%

Win Probability (After): 89.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:15 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 5 at MICH 45) Blake Corum run for 24 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 10 2.61 89.6% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 31

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.14 - 1.52 = 2.61

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.52)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.6%

Win Probability (After): 92.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:56 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at NU 31) McNamara, Cade pass incomplete to Johnson, Cornelius, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN pass interference 15 yards to the NORTHWSTRN16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGAN. - NU 7, MICH 10 0.92 91.3% 2.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 16

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.04 - 4.12 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.12)

Score Difference (End): 3 (8.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.3%

Win Probability (After): 93.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:44 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at NU 16) Blake Corum run for 11 yds to the Nwest 5 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 10 0.87 92.2% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 5

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.91 - 5.04 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.04)

Score Difference (End): 3 (8.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.2%

Win Probability (After): 93.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:36 ESPN team id 130 (1st & Goal at NU 5) Blake Corum run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) - NU 7, MICH 17 1.09 93.8% 2.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.91 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.91)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.8%

Win Probability (After): 96.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:31 ESPN team id 77 (Kickoff at NU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 61 yds , Raymond Niro III return for 16 yds to the Nwest 20 - NU 7, MICH 17 -0.21 6.0% -1.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - 0.02 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.98)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.0%

Win Probability (After): 5.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:59 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at NU 20) TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 14 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Nwest Ryan Hilinski - NU 7, MICH 17 -1.21 6.1% -1.0%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 86

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.51 - -0.30 = -1.21

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.30)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-11.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, -6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.1%

Win Probability (After): 5.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:56 ESPN team id 77 (2nd & 16 at NU 14) Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to JJ Jefferson - NU 7, MICH 17 -0.82 5.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 86

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.40 - -1.58 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-11.58)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-12.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.1%

Win Probability (After): 4.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:42 ESPN team id 77 (3rd & 16 at NU 14) Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 26 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 17 3.53 4.5% 2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 60

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.23 - -2.30 = 3.53

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-12.30)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.5%

Win Probability (After): 6.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:09 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at NU 40) Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the Nwest 42 - NU 7, MICH 17 -0.28 5.7% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 58

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - 1.19 = -0.28

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.81)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.7%

Win Probability (After): 6.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:58 ESPN team id 77 (2nd & 8 at NU 42) Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete - NU 7, MICH 17 -0.90 5.8% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.84 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.16)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.8%

Win Probability (After): 5.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:33 ESPN team id 77 (3rd & 8 at NU 42) Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Jacob Gill for 13 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 17 2.18 5.0% 1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 45

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.30 - 0.12 = 2.18

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.88)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.0%

Win Probability (After): 6.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:15 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at MICH 45) Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Genson Hooper Price for 7 yds to the Mich 38 - NU 7, MICH 17 0.53 6.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 38

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 2.46 = 0.53

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.54)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.3%

Win Probability (After): 6.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:02 ESPN team id 77 (2nd & 3 at MICH 38) Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 17 0.30 6.4% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 34

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 2.97 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.03)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 7.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:45 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at MICH 34) MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Mich 19 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 17 1.14 6.4% 2.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 19

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 3.20 = 1.14

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.80)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 9.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:32 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at MICH 19) Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Wayne Dennis Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 21 - NU 7, MICH 17 -1.07 8.9% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 21

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 4.35 = -1.07

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.65)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.9%

Win Probability (After): 7.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:07 ESPN team id 77 (2nd & 12 at MICH 21) Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete - NU 7, MICH 17 -0.66 6.5% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.62 - 3.28 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.72)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.5%

Win Probability (After): 5.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:05 ESPN team id 77 (3rd & 12 at MICH 21) Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete - NU 7, MICH 17 -0.59 5.9% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - 2.61 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.39)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.9%

Win Probability (After): 5.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:59 ESPN team id 77 (4th & 12 at MICH 21) Charlie Kuhbander 39 yd FG MISSED - NU 7, MICH 17 -3.74 5.3% -0.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 79

Started Drive at: NU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.72 - 2.01 = -3.74

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.99)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.72)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.3%

Win Probability (After): 4.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:50 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 21) Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Erick All - NU 7, MICH 17 -0.60 95.9% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 79

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.11 - 1.71 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.71)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.9%

Win Probability (After): 95.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:37 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 10 at MICH 21) Andrel Anthony run for 6 yds to the Mich 27 - NU 7, MICH 17 -0.19 95.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 73

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - 1.09 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.09)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.4%

Win Probability (After): 95.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:04 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 4 at MICH 27) Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Daylen Baldwin - NU 7, MICH 17 -1.90 95.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.88 - 1.02 = -1.90

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.02)

Score Difference (End): 10 (9.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.3%

Win Probability (After): 95.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:56 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 4 at MICH 27) Brad Robbins punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 25 - NU 7, MICH 17 0.72 95.0% 0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 75

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - -0.79 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): 10 (9.21)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.93)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.0%

Win Probability (After): 95.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:40 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at NU 25) Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 5 yds to the Nwest 30 - NU 7, MICH 17 0.13 5.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.17 - 0.04 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.96)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.1%

Win Probability (After): 4.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:30 ESPN team id 77 (2nd & 5 at NU 30) Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 31 - NU 7, MICH 17 -0.55 5.2% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 69

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.38 - 0.17 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.83)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.2%

Win Probability (After): 4.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:13 ESPN team id 77 (3rd & 4 at NU 31) Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Genson Hooper Price - NU 7, MICH 17 -1.51 5.0% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.86 - -0.36 = -1.51

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.36)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-11.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.0%

Win Probability (After): 4.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:01 ESPN team id 77 (4th & 4 at NU 31) Derek Adams punt blocked by Cornelius Johnson blocked by Cornelius Johnson Caden Kolesar return for 9 yds to the Nwest 24 - NU 7, MICH 17 -2.73 4.3% -1.8%

Play Type: Blocked Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 24

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.61 - -1.89 = -2.73

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-11.89)

Score Difference (End): 10 (14.61)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.3%

Win Probability (After): 2.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 5:21 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at NU 24) Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the Nwest 15 - NU 7, MICH 17 0.82 97.6% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 15

Started Drive at: NU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.45 - 4.63 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): 10 (14.63)

Score Difference (End): 10 (15.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.6%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:12 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 1 at NU 15) Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Nwest 13 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 17 -0.25 97.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 13

Started Drive at: NU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.23 - 5.47 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): 10 (15.47)

Score Difference (End): 10 (15.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:50 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at NU 13) Hassan Haskins run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jake Moody KICK) - NU 7, MICH 24 1.75 97.8% 1.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: NU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.25 = 1.75

Score Difference (Before): 10 (15.25)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:43 ESPN team id 77 (Kickoff at NU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 63 yds , Raymond Niro III return for 16 yds to the Nwest 18 - NU 7, MICH 24 -0.31 1.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 82

Started Drive at: NU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.82 - -0.51 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.51)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:38 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at NU 18) Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete - NU 7, MICH 24 -0.59 1.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 82

Started Drive at: NU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.41 - -0.82 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.82)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-18.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:21 ESPN team id 77 (2nd & 10 at NU 18) Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 4 yds to the Nwest 22 - NU 7, MICH 24 -0.48 1.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 78

Started Drive at: NU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.90 - -1.42 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-18.42)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-18.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:45 ESPN team id 77 (3rd & 6 at NU 22) Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Evan Hull for 1 yd to the Nwest 23 - NU 7, MICH 24 -1.16 1.0% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 77

Started Drive at: NU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.06 - -1.89 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-18.89)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-20.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:12 ESPN team id 77 (4th & 5 at NU 23) Derek Adams punt for 52 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 19 yds to the Mich 44 - NU 7, MICH 24 -0.44 0.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 56

Started Drive at: NU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.51 - -3.07 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-20.07)

Score Difference (End): 17 (20.51)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 7, MICH 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 2:46 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 44) J.J. McCarthy run for 23 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 24 1.10 99.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 33

Started Drive at: MICH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.63 - 3.53 = 1.10

Score Difference (Before): 17 (20.53)

Score Difference (End): 17 (21.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:29 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at NU 33) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cornelius Johnson - NU 7, MICH 24 -0.57 99.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33

Started Drive at: MICH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.06 - 4.63 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 17 (21.63)

Score Difference (End): 17 (21.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:15 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 10 at NU 33) McNamara, Cade pass complete to Anthony, Andrel for 9 yards to the NORTHWSTRN24, PENALTY MICHIGAN ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the NORTHWSTRN38, NO PLAY. - NU 7, MICH 24 -0.84 99.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 38

Started Drive at: MICH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.23 - 4.06 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): 17 (21.06)

Score Difference (End): 17 (20.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:52 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 15 at NU 38) J.J. McCarthy run for 13 yds to the Nwest 25 - NU 7, MICH 24 1.05 99.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 25

Started Drive at: MICH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.26 - 3.21 = 1.05

Score Difference (Before): 17 (20.21)

Score Difference (End): 17 (21.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:10 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 2 at NU 25) Hassan Haskins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 26 - NU 7, MICH 24 -2.03 99.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 26

Started Drive at: MICH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 4.27 = -2.03

Score Difference (Before): 17 (21.27)

Score Difference (End): 17 (19.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:40 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 3 at NU 26) Jake Moody 44 yd FG GOOD - NU 7, MICH 27 0.74 99.1% 0.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: MICH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.26 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): 17 (19.26)

Score Difference (End): 20 (20.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 27

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 0:33 ESPN team id 77 (Kickoff at NU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 64 yds , Andrew Clair return for 14 yds to the Nwest 15 - NU 7, MICH 27 -0.37 0.4% -0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 85

Started Drive at: NU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.73 - -0.36 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-20.36)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-20.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 27

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:21 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at NU 15) Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Malik Washington for 15 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 27 0.89 0.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 70

Started Drive at: NU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.16 - -0.73 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-20.73)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-19.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:05 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at NU 30) Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 30 - NU 7, MICH 27 -0.82 0.4% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: NU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.67 - 0.15 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-19.85)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-20.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:46 ESPN team id 77 (2nd & 10 at NU 30) Ryan Hilinski pass intercepted DJ Turner return for 23 yds to the Nwest 15 - NU 7, MICH 27 -4.70 0.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 15

Started Drive at: NU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -5.41 - -0.70 = -4.70

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-20.70)

Score Difference (End): 20 (25.41)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 7, MICH 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:22 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at NU 15) Hassan Haskins run for 6 yds to the Nwest 9 - NU 7, MICH 27 0.05 99.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 9

Started Drive at: NU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.44 - 5.39 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): 20 (25.39)

Score Difference (End): 20 (25.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:08 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 4 at NU 9) Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Nwest 7 - NU 7, MICH 27 -0.11 99.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 7

Started Drive at: NU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.27 - 5.38 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): 20 (25.38)

Score Difference (End): 20 (25.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:34 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 2 at NU 7) Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Nwest 4 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 27 0.92 99.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 4

Started Drive at: NU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.16 - 5.24 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): 20 (25.24)

Score Difference (End): 20 (26.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:20 ESPN team id 130 (1st & Goal at NU 4) Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) - NU 7, MICH 33 -0.17 99.9% 0.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: NU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 6.17 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): 20 (26.17)

Score Difference (End): 26 (26.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:20 ESPN team id 77 (Kickoff at NU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NU 7, MICH 33 0.00 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.75 - -0.75 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-26.75)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-26.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:09 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at NU 25) Malik Washington run for 6 yds to the Nwest 31 - NU 7, MICH 33 0.39 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.36 - -0.74 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-26.74)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-26.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:51 ESPN team id 77 (2nd & 4 at NU 31) Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete - NU 7, MICH 33 -0.76 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.10 - -0.34 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-26.34)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-27.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:46 ESPN team id 77 (3rd & 4 at NU 31) Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Jacob Gill - NU 7, MICH 33 -1.22 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.27 - -1.05 = -1.22

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-27.05)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-28.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:36 ESPN team id 77 (4th & 4 at NU 31) Derek Adams punt for 37 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the Mich 32 - NU 7, MICH 33 -0.78 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 68

Started Drive at: NU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.96 - -2.18 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-28.18)

Score Difference (End): 26 (28.96)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 12:19 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 32) Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the Mich 40 - NU 7, MICH 33 0.41 100.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 60

Started Drive at: MICH 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - 3.00 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 26 (29.00)

Score Difference (End): 26 (29.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:47 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 2 at MICH 40) Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the Mich 40 - NU 7, MICH 33 -0.83 100.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: MICH 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.65 - 3.48 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): 26 (29.48)

Score Difference (End): 26 (28.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:14 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 2 at MICH 40) Hassan Haskins run for 5 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 33 0.98 100.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 55

Started Drive at: MICH 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.56 - 2.59 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): 26 (28.59)

Score Difference (End): 26 (29.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:38 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 45) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 11 yds Donovan Edwards fumbled, forced by Coco Azema, recovered by Nwest A.J. Hampton Jr. - NU 7, MICH 33 -4.70 100.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 56

Started Drive at: MICH 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.24 - 3.46 = -4.70

Score Difference (Before): 26 (29.46)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-24.76)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:34 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at NU 44) Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the Nwest 46 - NU 7, MICH 33 -0.42 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 54

Started Drive at: NU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.97 - 1.39 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-24.61)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-25.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:30 ESPN team id 77 (2nd & 8 at NU 46) Carl Richardson pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 7 yds Jordan Mosley fumbled, recovered by Nwest - NU 7, MICH 33 0.77 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 47

Started Drive at: NU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.74 - 0.97 = 0.77

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-25.03)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-24.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:49 ESPN team id 77 (3rd & 1 at MICH 47) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 09:49 - NU 7, MICH 33 0.00 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: NU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.74 - 1.74 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-24.26)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-24.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:30 ESPN team id 77 (3rd & 1 at MICH 47) Anthony Tyus III run for no gain to the Mich 47 - NU 7, MICH 33 -1.02 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: NU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.54 - 1.56 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-24.44)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-25.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:08 ESPN team id 77 (4th & 1 at MICH 47) Carl Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 49 Carl Richardson fumbled, recovered by Mich - NU 7, MICH 33 -3.78 0.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 51

Started Drive at: NU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.38 - 0.40 = -3.78

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-25.60)

Score Difference (End): 26 (29.38)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 8:45 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 49) Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the Nwest 48 - NU 7, MICH 33 -0.10 100.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 48

Started Drive at: MICH 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.84 - 2.93 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): 26 (28.93)

Score Difference (End): 26 (28.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:16 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 7 at NU 48) Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 8 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 33 1.21 100.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 40

Started Drive at: MICH 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.70 - 2.49 = 1.21

Score Difference (Before): 26 (28.49)

Score Difference (End): 26 (29.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:47 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at NU 40) Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the Nwest 39 - NU 7, MICH 33 -0.55 100.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 39

Started Drive at: MICH 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.55 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): 26 (29.55)

Score Difference (End): 26 (29.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:15 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 9 at NU 39) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Mike Sainristil - NU 7, MICH 33 -0.90 100.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39

Started Drive at: MICH 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 3.07 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): 26 (29.07)

Score Difference (End): 26 (28.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:06 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 9 at NU 39) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 18 yds to the Nwest 21 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 33 2.55 100.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 21

Started Drive at: MICH 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.83 - 2.28 = 2.55

Score Difference (Before): 26 (28.28)

Score Difference (End): 26 (30.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:16 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at NU 21) Blake Corum run for no gain to the Nwest 21 - NU 7, MICH 33 -0.40 100.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: MICH 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.33 - 4.73 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): 26 (30.73)

Score Difference (End): 26 (30.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:32 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 10 at NU 21) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 5 yds to the Nwest 16 - NU 7, MICH 33 0.16 100.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 16

Started Drive at: MICH 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.07 - 3.91 = 0.16

Score Difference (Before): 26 (29.91)

Score Difference (End): 26 (30.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:11 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 5 at NU 16) Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Nwest 14 - NU 7, MICH 33 -1.22 100.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 14

Started Drive at: MICH 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.62 - 3.84 = -1.22

Score Difference (Before): 26 (29.84)

Score Difference (End): 26 (28.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:25 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 3 at NU 14) McCarthy, J.J. pass complete to Selzer, Carter for 7 yards to the NORTHWSTRN7, PENALTY MICHIGAN personal foul 15 yards to the NORTHWSTRN29, NO PLAY. - NU 7, MICH 33 -1.35 100.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 29

Started Drive at: MICH 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 2.45 = -1.35

Score Difference (Before): 26 (28.45)

Score Difference (End): 26 (27.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:17 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 18 at NU 29) Jake Moody 47 yd FG MISSED - NU 7, MICH 33 -1.62 100.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 71

Started Drive at: MICH 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.74 - 0.88 = -1.62

Score Difference (Before): 26 (26.88)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-25.26)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:05 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at NU 29) Marcus Cisco run for 4 yds to the Nwest 33 - NU 7, MICH 33 -0.27 0.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 67

Started Drive at: NU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 0.71 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-25.29)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-25.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:33 ESPN team id 77 (2nd & 6 at NU 33) Jake Arthurs run for 1 yd to the Nwest 34 - NU 7, MICH 33 -0.24 0.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 66

Started Drive at: NU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.26 - 0.50 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-25.50)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-25.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:29 ESPN team id 77 (3rd & 5 at NU 34) Marcus Cisco run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 33 1.57 0.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 50

Started Drive at: NU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.85 - 0.28 = 1.57

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-25.72)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-24.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:19 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at 50) Anthony Tyus III run for no gain to the 50 yard line - NU 7, MICH 33 -0.44 0.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: NU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.37 - 1.81 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-24.19)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-24.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:23 ESPN team id 77 (2nd & 10 at 50) Marcus Cisco run for 5 yds to the Mich 45 - NU 7, MICH 33 0.23 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 45

Started Drive at: NU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.30 - 1.06 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-24.94)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-24.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:04 ESPN team id 77 (3rd & 5 at MICH 45) Jake Arthurs run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 47 - NU 7, MICH 33 -0.84 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 47

Started Drive at: NU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.18 - 1.01 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-24.99)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-25.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:29 ESPN team id 77 (4th & 7 at MICH 47) Carl Richardson pass complete to Anthony Tyus III for 12 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST down - NU 7, MICH 33 2.05 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 35

Started Drive at: NU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.38 - 0.34 = 2.05

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-25.66)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-23.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:16 ESPN team id 77 (1st & 10 at MICH 35) Carl Richardson pass incomplete - NU 7, MICH 33 0.22 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35

Started Drive at: NU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 1.60 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-24.40)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-24.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:05 ESPN team id 77 (2nd & 10 at MICH 35) Anthony Tyus III run for 1 yd to the Mich 34 - NU 7, MICH 33 0.38 0.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 34

Started Drive at: NU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - 1.15 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-24.85)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-24.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NU 7, MICH 33

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2