Wisconsin 30 @ Purdue 13

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 5.94 | Odds: WISC -3.5, O/U 41.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 275 ESPN team id 2509
Total Plays 7074
Total EPA -5.95-33.6
  Offensive EPA -3.14-32.96
  Special Teams EPA 1.810.22
  Penalty EPA -2.01-0.86
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA -2.610.00
Production ESPN team id 275 ESPN team id 2509
Scrimmage Plays 5962
  Yards 418264
  Yards/Play 7.084.26
  EPA -3.14-32.96
  EPA/Play -0.05-0.53
Passes 10 (17%)44 (71%)
  Yards 52219
  Yards/Play 5.204.98
  EPA -0.77-19.41
  EPA/Play -0.08-0.44
Rushes 49 (83%)18 (29%)
  Yards 31330
  Yards/Play 6.391.67
  EPA -2.37-13.55
  EPA/Play -0.05-0.75
Rushing ESPN team id 275 ESPN team id 2509
Scrimmage Plays 5962
Rushes 49 (83%)18 (29%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 2 (4%)0 (0%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 0 (0%)0 (0%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 12 (24%)7 (39%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 18 (37%)13 (72%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 26 (53%)4 (22%)
OL Line Yards 66.914.9
  Per Carry 1.370.83
Highlight Yards 152.53.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 5.870.88
Explosiveness ESPN team id 275 ESPN team id 2509
Total Plays 7074
Scrimmage Plays 5962
Explosive Plays 6 (10%)2 (3%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 1 (10%)2 (5%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 5 (10%)0 (0%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -20.73-38.12
  EPA/Play -0.39-0.64
  When Passing -4.32-24.56
    EPA/Play -0.43-0.56
  When Rushing -16.41-13.55
    EPA/Play -0.37-0.75
Situational ESPN team id 275 ESPN team id 2509
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 22 (37%)21 (34%)
  When Passing 4 (40%)16 (36%)
  When Rushing 18 (37%)5 (28%)
  On Standard Downs 18 (43%)10 (29%)
  On Passing Downs 4 (24%)11 (41%)
  On Early Downs 21 (44%)18 (37%)
  On Late Downs 1 (9%)3 (23%)
  During "Middle 8" 0 (0%)5 (33%)
Early Downs 4849
  First Downs Created 10 (21%)11 (22%)
  EPA 4.39-10.20
  EPA/Play 0.09-0.21
  Passes 5 (10%)32 (65%)
  Rushes 43 (90%)17 (35%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 3 (60%)13 (41%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 18 (42%)5 (29%)
"Middle 8" Plays 615
  EPA -7.53-11.06
  EPA/play -1.26-0.74
  Passes 1 (17%)11 (73%)
  Rushes 5 (83%)4 (27%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 0 (0%)3 (27%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 0 (0%)2 (50%)
Drives ESPN team id 275 ESPN team id 2509
Total 1413
Avg Starting Field Position Own 34Own 22
Plays/Drive 6.646.35
Yards/Drive 40.9224.39
Available Yards % 62%31%
Defensive ESPN team id 275 ESPN team id 2509
Scrimmage Plays 6259
Stop Rate 53%32%
Havoc Plays Created 16 (26%)12 (20%)
  Passing 12 (27%)2 (20%)
  Rushing 4 (22%)10 (20%)
TFLs Generated 1210
  Passing 82
  Rushing 48
Sacks Generated 6 (14%)2 (20%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 30
Fumbles Forced 13
Turnovers ESPN team id 275 ESPN team id 2509
Turnovers 25
  Fumbles 42
  Fumbles Lost 22
  Fumbles Recovered 20
  Interceptions 03
Turnover Margin 3-3
Expected Turnovers 3.03.7
Expected Turnover Margin 0.7-0.7
Turnover Luck (pts) 11.7-11.7
Special Teams ESPN team id 275 ESPN team id 2509
Total Plays 11 12
Total EPA 1.81 0.22
  Field Goal EPA 1.97 0
  Punting EPA -0.09 0.32
  Kickoff Return EPA -0.07 -0.1

Wisconsin [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Graham Mertz 5/8, 52 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 2 Scks, 57.9 xQBR 5.20 -0.08 -0.77 40% -19.0%
Rush attempts
Chez Mellusi 27 carries, 149 yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 5.52 0.08 2.21 37% 6.0%
Graham Mertz 2 carries, 22 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.00 1.10 2.21 50% 7.0%
Braelon Allen 12 carries, 140 yds, 2 TD, 2 Fum (1 lost) 11.67 0.13 1.52 58% 15.0%
John Chenal 1 carry, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.67 -1.67 0% 0.0%
TEAM 3 carries, -7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -2.33 -0.61 -1.82 0% 1.0%
Brady Schipper 3 carries, 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.64 -1.92 0% -6.0%
Kendric Pryor 1 carry, -3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -3.00 -2.89 -2.89 0% -8.0%
Pass targets
Jake Ferguson 2 catches (2 targets), 23 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.50 1.68 3.37 50% 9.0%
Braelon Allen 1 catch (1 target), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 1.25 1.25 100% 3.0%
Chez Mellusi 1 catch (1 target), 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.00 0.98 0.98 100% 4.0%
Kendric Pryor 1 catch (3 targets), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 -0.44 -1.33 33% -1.0%
Chimere Dike 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.57 -1.57 0% -6.0%

Purdue [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Jack Plummer 3/6, 19 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 2 Scks, 8.6 xQBR 2.38 -0.61 -4.90 12% -3.0%
Aidan O'Connell 24/32, 200 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT, 4 Scks, 39.6 xQBR 5.56 -0.40 -14.51 42% -8.0%
Rush attempts
Austin Burton 1 carry, 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.45 -0.45 0% -1.0%
Dylan Downing 2 carries, 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.50 -0.81 -1.62 0% -7.0%
King Doerue 9 carries, 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.22 -0.52 -4.65 33% -12.0%
Jack Plummer 6 carries, 8 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 1.33 -1.14 -6.84 33% -9.0%
Pass targets
Payne Durham 9 catches (10 targets), 112 yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 12.44 0.75 7.51 70% 26.0%
Milton Wright 3 catches (3 targets), 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.67 0.51 1.52 67% 10.0%
Broc Thompson 2 catches (2 targets), 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 0.46 0.92 50% 2.0%
Jackson Anthrop 2 catches (2 targets), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.50 0.38 0.77 50% 3.0%
Kyle Bilodeau 1 catch (1 target), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.12 0.12 100% 1.0%
Dylan Downing 1 catch (1 target), -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.00 -0.13 -0.13 0% 0.0%
David Bell 6 catches (10 targets), 33 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.50 -0.04 -0.41 30% 0.0%
Spencer Holstege 1 catch (1 target), -3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -3.00 -0.93 -0.93 0% -3.0%
TJ Sheffield 2 catches (2 targets), 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 -0.54 -1.08 50% 2.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 3:02 ESPN team id 2509 (3rd & 11 at PUR 28) Aidan O'Connell pass intercepted John Torchio return for 37 yds to the Prdue 1 - WISC 10, PUR 13 -6.44 52.6% -19.4%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 1

Started Drive at: PUR 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -6.38 - 0.05 = -6.44

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.05)

Score Difference (End): -3 (3.38)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 33.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:03 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at WISC 27) Braelon Allen run for 12 yds to the Wisc 39 Braelon Allen fumbled, forced by Jamari Brown, recovered by Prdue Cam Allen - WISC 7, PUR 0 -5.38 81.2% -9.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 39

Started Drive at: WISC 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.92 - 2.46 = -5.38

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.46)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.08)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 7, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.2%

Win Probability (After): 71.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 6:38 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 25) Jack Plummer run for a loss of 4 yards to the Prdue 21 Jack Plummer fumbled, recovered by Wisc Nick Herbig - WISC 27, PUR 13 -4.94 3.0% -2.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 21

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.76 - 0.18 = -4.94

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.82)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.76)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 27, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:00 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at WISC 6) Braelon Allen run for 70 yds to the Prdue 24 for a 1ST down - WISC 13, PUR 13 4.62 54.8% 12.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 24

Started Drive at: WISC 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.41 - -0.21 = 4.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.8%

Win Probability (After): 67.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:08 ESPN team id 2509 (3rd & 11 at WISC 29) Aidan O'Connell pass intercepted Collin Wilder return for 10 yds to the Wisc 28 - WISC 20, PUR 13 -4.10 22.3% -6.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 72

Started Drive at: PUR 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.37 - 1.72 = -4.10

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.28)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.37)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.3%

Win Probability (After): 15.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:55 ESPN team id 2509 (3rd & 5 at PUR 30) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 7 yds Payne Durham fumbled, forced by Collin Wilder, recovered by Wisc Collin Wilder - WISC 13, PUR 13 -3.85 43.0% -10.1%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 37

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.64 - 0.21 = -3.85

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.64)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.0%

Win Probability (After): 32.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:45 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 20 at PUR 32) Aidan O'Connell pass intercepted Caesar Williams return for 11 yds to the Prdue 36 - WISC 10, PUR 7 -3.72 28.8% -3.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 36

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.50 - 0.22 = -3.72

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.78)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.50)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 10, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.8%

Win Probability (After): 25.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:22 ESPN team id 275 (3rd & 15 at WISC 27) Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 17 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST down - WISC 0, PUR 0 3.54 58.8% 8.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 56

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - -1.08 = 3.54

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.8%

Win Probability (After): 67.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:00 ESPN team id 2509 (3rd & 10 at WISC 30) Aidan O'Connell sacked by Leo Chenal for a loss of 10 yards to the Wisc 40 - WISC 0, PUR 0 -3.06 41.5% -7.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 40

Started Drive at: PUR 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - 2.66 = -3.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.66)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.5%

Win Probability (After): 34.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:08 ESPN team id 275 (3rd & Goal at PUR 1) Kendric Pryor run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 4 - WISC 10, PUR 13 -2.89 65.7% -8.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 4

Started Drive at: PUR 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 5.71 = -2.89

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.71)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.7%

Win Probability (After): 57.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 6:13 ESPN team id 275 (3rd & 8 at PUR 34) Graham Mertz sacked by Jamari Brown for a loss of 10 yards Graham Mertz fumbled, forced by Jamari Brown, recovered by Prdue George Karlaftis , return for 0 yards , return for 56 yds, (Mitchell Fineran PAT MISSED) - WISC 10, PUR 13 -0.86 73.0% -21.5%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99

Started Drive at: PUR 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.79 - 2.65 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.65)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.0%

Win Probability (After): 51.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:02 ESPN team id 2509 (3rd & 11 at PUR 28) Aidan O'Connell pass intercepted John Torchio return for 37 yds to the Prdue 1 - WISC 10, PUR 13 -6.44 52.6% -19.4%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 1

Started Drive at: PUR 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -6.38 - 0.05 = -6.44

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.05)

Score Difference (End): -3 (3.38)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 33.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:00 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at WISC 6) Braelon Allen run for 70 yds to the Prdue 24 for a 1ST down - WISC 13, PUR 13 4.62 54.8% 12.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 24

Started Drive at: WISC 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.41 - -0.21 = 4.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.8%

Win Probability (After): 67.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:06 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 6 at PUR 20) Chez Mellusi run for 20 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) - WISC 20, PUR 13 2.59 69.8% 11.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 99

Started Drive at: WISC 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.41 = 2.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.41)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 94 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.8%

Win Probability (After): 81.6%

Away Score: 13 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:55 ESPN team id 2509 (3rd & 5 at PUR 30) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 7 yds Payne Durham fumbled, forced by Collin Wilder, recovered by Wisc Collin Wilder - WISC 13, PUR 13 -3.85 43.0% -10.1%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 37

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.64 - 0.21 = -3.85

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.64)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.0%

Win Probability (After): 32.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:03 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at WISC 27) Braelon Allen run for 12 yds to the Wisc 39 Braelon Allen fumbled, forced by Jamari Brown, recovered by Prdue Cam Allen - WISC 7, PUR 0 -5.38 81.2% -9.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 39

Started Drive at: WISC 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.92 - 2.46 = -5.38

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.46)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.08)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 7, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.2%

Win Probability (After): 71.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 7:22 ESPN team id 275 (3rd & 15 at WISC 27) Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 17 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST down - WISC 0, PUR 0 3.54 58.8% 8.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 56

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - -1.08 = 3.54

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.8%

Win Probability (After): 67.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:49 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & Goal at PUR 4) Braelon Allen run for 4 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) - WISC 7, PUR 0 1.39 69.4% 8.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.61 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.61)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 107 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.4%

Win Probability (After): 77.9%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:08 ESPN team id 275 (3rd & Goal at PUR 1) Kendric Pryor run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 4 - WISC 10, PUR 13 -2.89 65.7% -8.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 4

Started Drive at: PUR 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 5.71 = -2.89

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.71)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.7%

Win Probability (After): 57.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 14:16 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 9 at WISC 10) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 10 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK) - WISC 7, PUR 7 2.73 31.4% 8.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 99

Started Drive at: WISC 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.27 = 2.73

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.73)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.4%

Win Probability (After): 39.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 2:49 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & Goal at PUR 4) Braelon Allen run for 4 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) - WISC 7, PUR 0 1.39 69.4% 8.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.61 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.61)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 107 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.4%

Win Probability (After): 77.9%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:16 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 9 at WISC 10) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 10 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK) - WISC 7, PUR 7 2.73 31.4% 8.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 99

Started Drive at: WISC 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.27 = 2.73

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.73)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.4%

Win Probability (After): 39.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:54 ESPN team id 275 (4th & 2 at PUR 19) Collin Larsh 37 yd FG GOOD - WISC 10, PUR 7 0.25 64.2% 7.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: WISC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.75 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.75)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.2%

Win Probability (After): 72.1%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 6:13 ESPN team id 275 (3rd & 8 at PUR 34) Graham Mertz sacked by Jamari Brown for a loss of 10 yards Graham Mertz fumbled, forced by Jamari Brown, recovered by Prdue George Karlaftis , return for 0 yards , return for 56 yds, (Mitchell Fineran PAT MISSED) - WISC 10, PUR 13 -0.86 73.0% -21.5%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99

Started Drive at: PUR 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.79 - 2.65 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.65)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.0%

Win Probability (After): 51.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:06 ESPN team id 275 (4th & Goal at PUR 4) Collin Larsh 23 yd FG GOOD - WISC 13, PUR 13 0.21 61.1% 5.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: PUR 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.79 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.1%

Win Probability (After): 66.6%

Away Score: 10 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:06 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 6 at PUR 20) Chez Mellusi run for 20 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) - WISC 20, PUR 13 2.59 69.8% 11.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 99

Started Drive at: WISC 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.41 = 2.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.41)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 94 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.8%

Win Probability (After): 81.6%

Away Score: 13 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:13 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 5 at PUR 14) Braelon Allen run for 14 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) - WISC 27, PUR 13 1.98 89.5% 6.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 99

Started Drive at: WISC 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.02 = 1.98

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.02)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 27, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.5%

Win Probability (After): 96.2%

Away Score: 20 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:06 ESPN team id 275 (4th & 14 at PUR 25) Collin Larsh 43 yd FG GOOD - WISC 30, PUR 13 1.51 99.1% 0.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: PUR 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.49 = 1.51

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.49)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 30, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 27 (30) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 275 (Kickoff at WISC 35) Mitchell Fineran kickoff for 65 yds , Chimere Dike return for 19 yds to the Wisc 19 - WISC 0, PUR 0 -0.34 62.3% -0.4%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 81

Started Drive at: WISC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - 0.86 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.3%

Win Probability (After): 61.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:45 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at WISC 19) Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Wisc 23 - WISC 0, PUR 0 -0.41 67.6% -3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 77

Started Drive at: WISC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.33 - 0.74 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.74)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.6%

Win Probability (After): 64.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:05 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 6 at WISC 23) Chez Mellusi run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 21 - WISC 0, PUR 0 -1.46 64.7% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 79

Started Drive at: WISC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.93 - 0.53 = -1.46

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.7%

Win Probability (After): 62.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:15 ESPN team id 275 (3rd & 8 at WISC 21) Graham Mertz run for 7 yds to the Wisc 28 - WISC 0, PUR 0 -0.51 59.1% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 72

Started Drive at: WISC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.41 - -0.90 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.90)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.1%

Win Probability (After): 60.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:48 ESPN team id 275 (4th & 1 at WISC 28) Andy Vujnovich punt for 52 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 9 yds to the Prdue 29 - WISC 0, PUR 0 -0.30 58.3% 2.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 71

Started Drive at: WISC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.54 - -1.24 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.24)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.54)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.3%

Win Probability (After): 60.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 12:30 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 29) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 13 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST down - WISC 0, PUR 0 0.72 38.7% 3.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 58

Started Drive at: PUR 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.30 - 1.58 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.58)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.7%

Win Probability (After): 41.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:10 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 42) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 13 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST down - WISC 0, PUR 0 0.90 41.7% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 45

Started Drive at: PUR 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 2.29 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.29)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.7%

Win Probability (After): 43.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:55 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at WISC 45) WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Caesar Williams) to the Wisc 30 for a 1ST down - WISC 0, PUR 0 0.94 44.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 30

Started Drive at: PUR 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.14 - 3.20 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.20)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.6%

Win Probability (After): 44.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:30 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at WISC 30) King Doerue run for no gain to the Wisc 30 - WISC 0, PUR 0 -0.62 44.0% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: PUR 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.54 - 4.16 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.0%

Win Probability (After): 44.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:13 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 10 at WISC 30) Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete - WISC 0, PUR 0 -0.78 43.2% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: PUR 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.71 - 3.49 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.2%

Win Probability (After): 41.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:00 ESPN team id 2509 (3rd & 10 at WISC 30) Aidan O'Connell sacked by Leo Chenal for a loss of 10 yards to the Wisc 40 - WISC 0, PUR 0 -3.06 41.5% -7.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 40

Started Drive at: PUR 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - 2.66 = -3.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.66)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.5%

Win Probability (After): 34.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:26 ESPN team id 2509 (4th & 20 at WISC 40) Jack Ansell punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 8 - WISC 0, PUR 0 0.28 33.7% 5.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 92

Started Drive at: PUR 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.17 - -0.11 = 0.28

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.17)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.7%

Win Probability (After): 39.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:00 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at WISC 8) Chez Mellusi run for 6 yds to the Wisc 14 - WISC 0, PUR 0 0.50 60.4% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 86

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.41 - -0.08 = 0.50

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.4%

Win Probability (After): 61.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:30 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 4 at WISC 14) Chez Mellusi run for 18 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST down - WISC 0, PUR 0 1.48 61.3% 4.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 68

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 0.34 = 1.48

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.3%

Win Probability (After): 65.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:15 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at WISC 32) Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Wisc 36 - WISC 0, PUR 0 -0.14 65.8% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 64

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 1.74 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.74)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.8%

Win Probability (After): 64.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:49 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 6 at WISC 36) WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 31 - WISC 0, PUR 0 -1.00 64.9% -2.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 69

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 1.55 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.55)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.9%

Win Probability (After): 62.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:23 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 11 at WISC 31) Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the Wisc 32 - WISC 0, PUR 0 -0.62 61.8% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 68

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - 0.52 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.52)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.8%

Win Probability (After): 59.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:54 ESPN team id 275 (3rd & 10 at WISC 32) WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 27 - WISC 0, PUR 0 -0.96 60.2% -2.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 73

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.05 - -0.09 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.09)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.2%

Win Probability (After): 57.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:22 ESPN team id 275 (3rd & 15 at WISC 27) Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 17 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST down - WISC 0, PUR 0 3.54 58.8% 8.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 56

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - -1.08 = 3.54

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.8%

Win Probability (After): 67.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:00 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at WISC 44) Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 9 yds to the Prdue 47 - WISC 0, PUR 0 0.84 67.9% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 47

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 2.49 = 0.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.9%

Win Probability (After): 68.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:19 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 1 at PUR 47) Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Prdue 45 for a 1ST down - WISC 0, PUR 0 -0.22 68.0% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 45

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 3.41 = -0.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.41)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.0%

Win Probability (After): 69.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:46 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at PUR 45) Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Prdue 42 - WISC 0, PUR 0 -0.36 67.5% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 42

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 3.18 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.5%

Win Probability (After): 68.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:15 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 7 at PUR 42) Graham Mertz pass complete to Braelon Allen for 9 yds to the Prdue 33 for a 1ST down - WISC 0, PUR 0 1.25 65.3% 3.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 33

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.04 - 2.80 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.80)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.3%

Win Probability (After): 68.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:28 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at PUR 33) Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the Prdue 27 - WISC 0, PUR 0 0.23 67.4% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 27

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.28 - 4.05 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.4%

Win Probability (After): 66.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:00 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 4 at PUR 27) Braelon Allen run for 19 yds to the Prdue 8 Braelon Allen fumbled, recovered by Wisc - WISC 0, PUR 0 1.22 68.1% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 8

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.50 - 4.28 = 1.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 94 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.1%

Win Probability (After): 70.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:23 ESPN team id 275 (1st & Goal at PUR 8) WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 13 - WISC 0, PUR 0 -0.73 70.7% -1.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 13

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.76 - 5.49 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 94 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.7%

Win Probability (After): 69.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:13 ESPN team id 275 (1st & Goal at PUR 13) Timeout WISCONSIN, clock 03:13 - WISC 0, PUR 0 0.00 68.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 13

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.76 - 4.76 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.76)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 94 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.9%

Win Probability (After): 68.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:02 ESPN team id 275 (1st & Goal at PUR 13) Chez Mellusi run for 9 yds to the Prdue 4 - WISC 0, PUR 0 0.83 68.1% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 4

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.59 - 4.77 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 0, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 103 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.1%

Win Probability (After): 69.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:49 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & Goal at PUR 4) Braelon Allen run for 4 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) - WISC 7, PUR 0 1.39 69.4% 8.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: WISC 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.61 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.61)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 107 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.4%

Win Probability (After): 77.9%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:49 ESPN team id 2509 (Kickoff at PUR 35) Collin Larsh kickoff for 61 yds , Jackson Anthrop return for 17 yds to the Prdue 21 - WISC 7, PUR 0 -0.19 24.9% -0.3%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 79

Started Drive at: PUR 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.23 - -0.04 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.04)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.9%

Win Probability (After): 24.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 2:15 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 21) Aidan O'Connell sacked by Leo Chenal for a loss of 8 yards to the Prdue 13 - WISC 7, PUR 0 -1.48 24.8% -2.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 87

Started Drive at: PUR 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.69 - -0.21 = -1.48

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.21)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.8%

Win Probability (After): 22.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 2:05 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 18 at PUR 13) Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to David Bell - WISC 7, PUR 0 -0.83 22.9% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 87

Started Drive at: PUR 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.48 - -1.65 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.65)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.9%

Win Probability (After): 21.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 1:55 ESPN team id 2509 (3rd & 18 at PUR 13) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 6 yds to the Prdue 19 - WISC 7, PUR 0 -0.66 21.0% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 81

Started Drive at: PUR 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.08 - -2.42 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.42)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-10.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.0%

Win Probability (After): 19.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 1:12 ESPN team id 2509 (4th & 12 at PUR 19) Jack Ansell punt for 53 yds , Dean Engram returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 27 Dean Engram fumbled, recovered by Wisc - WISC 7, PUR 0 0.55 19.6% -1.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 73

Started Drive at: PUR 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.43 - -2.98 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.98)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.43)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 7, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.6%

Win Probability (After): 18.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 1:03 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at WISC 27) Braelon Allen run for 12 yds to the Wisc 39 Braelon Allen fumbled, forced by Jamari Brown, recovered by Prdue Cam Allen - WISC 7, PUR 0 -5.38 81.2% -9.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 39

Started Drive at: WISC 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.92 - 2.46 = -5.38

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.46)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.08)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 7, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.2%

Win Probability (After): 71.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 0:56 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at WISC 39) WISCONSIN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Wisc 24 for a 1ST down - WISC 7, PUR 0 0.96 28.5% 2.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 24

Started Drive at: WISC 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.90 - 2.94 = 0.96

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.06)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.5%

Win Probability (After): 31.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 0:18 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at WISC 24) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 2 yds to the Wisc 22 - WISC 7, PUR 0 -0.15 31.4% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 22

Started Drive at: WISC 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.74 - 3.90 = -0.15

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.10)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.4%

Win Probability (After): 30.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 0:01 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 8 at WISC 22) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Milton Wright for 11 yds to the Wisc 11 for a 1ST down - WISC 7, PUR 0 1.24 30.3% 4.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 11

Started Drive at: WISC 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.95 - 3.71 = 1.24

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.29)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.3%

Win Probability (After): 34.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:38 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at WISC 11) Dylan Downing run for 1 yd to the Wisc 10 - WISC 7, PUR 0 -0.60 32.9% -2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 10

Started Drive at: WISC 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.30 - 4.91 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.09)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.9%

Win Probability (After): 30.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:16 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 9 at WISC 10) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 10 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK) - WISC 7, PUR 7 2.73 31.4% 8.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 99

Started Drive at: WISC 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.27 = 2.73

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.73)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.4%

Win Probability (After): 39.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:16 ESPN team id 275 (Kickoff at WISC 35) Mitchell Fineran kickoff for 64 yds for a touchback - WISC 7, PUR 7 0.00 60.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: WISC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 1.13 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.9%

Win Probability (After): 60.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:00 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at WISC 25) Chez Mellusi run for 5 yds to the Wisc 30 - WISC 7, PUR 7 0.15 61.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: WISC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.29 - 1.14 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.1%

Win Probability (After): 61.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:38 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 5 at WISC 30) Graham Mertz pass complete to Chez Mellusi for 11 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST down - WISC 7, PUR 7 0.98 60.9% 3.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 59

Started Drive at: WISC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.30 - 1.31 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.31)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.9%

Win Probability (After): 64.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:00 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at WISC 41) Braelon Allen run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 37 - WISC 7, PUR 7 -1.38 64.3% -3.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 63

Started Drive at: WISC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 2.33 = -1.38

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.33)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.3%

Win Probability (After): 60.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:30 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 14 at WISC 37) Graham Mertz run for 15 yds to the PURDUE 48 for a 1ST down PURDUE Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST down - WISC 7, PUR 7 2.71 60.6% 5.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 38

Started Drive at: WISC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.66 - 1.04 = 2.71

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.6%

Win Probability (After): 66.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:00 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at PUR 38) Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Prdue 36 - WISC 7, PUR 7 -0.50 66.9% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 36

Started Drive at: WISC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 3.69 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.69)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.9%

Win Probability (After): 65.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:30 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 8 at PUR 36) Chez Mellusi run for 9 yds to the Prdue 27 for a 1ST down - WISC 7, PUR 7 1.15 65.6% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 27

Started Drive at: WISC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.35 - 3.20 = 1.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.20)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.6%

Win Probability (After): 68.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:00 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at PUR 27) Chez Mellusi run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 28 - WISC 7, PUR 7 -0.88 68.6% -2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 28

Started Drive at: WISC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 4.32 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.32)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.6%

Win Probability (After): 65.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:00 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 11 at PUR 28) Brady Schipper run for 3 yds to the Prdue 25 - WISC 7, PUR 7 -0.38 66.1% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 25

Started Drive at: WISC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.06 - 3.43 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.43)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.1%

Win Probability (After): 65.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:20 ESPN team id 275 (3rd & 8 at PUR 25) Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 6 yds to the Prdue 19 - WISC 7, PUR 7 -0.17 64.9% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 19

Started Drive at: WISC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 3.05 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 7, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.9%

Win Probability (After): 65.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:54 ESPN team id 275 (4th & 2 at PUR 19) Collin Larsh 37 yd FG GOOD - WISC 10, PUR 7 0.25 64.2% 7.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: WISC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.75 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.75)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.2%

Win Probability (After): 72.1%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 8:54 ESPN team id 2509 (Kickoff at PUR 35) Jack Van Dyke kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - WISC 10, PUR 7 0.00 32.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 0.83 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.17)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.2%

Win Probability (After): 32.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:30 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 25) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 17 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST down - WISC 10, PUR 7 1.11 31.8% 2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 58

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 0.84 = 1.11

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.16)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.8%

Win Probability (After): 34.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:58 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 42) Aidan O'Connell sacked by Leo Chenal for a loss of 10 yards to the Prdue 32 - WISC 10, PUR 7 -1.78 33.9% -4.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 68

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - 1.97 = -1.78

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.03)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.9%

Win Probability (After): 29.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:45 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 20 at PUR 32) Aidan O'Connell pass intercepted Caesar Williams return for 11 yds to the Prdue 36 - WISC 10, PUR 7 -3.72 28.8% -3.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 36

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.50 - 0.22 = -3.72

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.78)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.50)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 10, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.8%

Win Probability (After): 25.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:15 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at PUR 36) Chez Mellusi run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 37 - WISC 10, PUR 7 -1.11 74.5% -3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 37

Started Drive at: PUR 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - 3.61 = -1.11

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.61)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.5%

Win Probability (After): 71.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:53 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 11 at PUR 37) Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Prdue 34 - WISC 10, PUR 7 -0.16 71.8% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 34

Started Drive at: PUR 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 2.63 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.63)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.8%

Win Probability (After): 71.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:13 ESPN team id 275 (3rd & 8 at PUR 34) Graham Mertz sacked by Jamari Brown for a loss of 10 yards Graham Mertz fumbled, forced by Jamari Brown, recovered by Prdue George Karlaftis , return for 0 yards , return for 56 yds, (Mitchell Fineran PAT MISSED) - WISC 10, PUR 13 -0.86 73.0% -21.5%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99

Started Drive at: PUR 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.79 - 2.65 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.65)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.0%

Win Probability (After): 51.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:13 ESPN team id 275 (Kickoff at WISC 35) Mitchell Fineran kickoff for 53 yds , Chimere Dike return for 15 yds to the Wisc 27 - WISC 10, PUR 13 0.27 52.7% 0.7%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 73

Started Drive at: WISC 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 0.87 = 0.27

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.13)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.7%

Win Probability (After): 53.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:58 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at WISC 27) Chez Mellusi run for 5 yds to the Wisc 32 - WISC 10, PUR 13 0.09 53.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 68

Started Drive at: WISC 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.09 - 1.00 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.00)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.3%

Win Probability (After): 52.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:25 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 5 at WISC 32) Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Wisc 34 - WISC 10, PUR 13 -0.32 52.6% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 66

Started Drive at: WISC 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 0.96 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.04)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 51.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:47 ESPN team id 275 (3rd & 3 at WISC 34) Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere Dike - WISC 10, PUR 13 -1.57 52.4% -6.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: WISC 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.84 - 0.73 = -1.57

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.27)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.4%

Win Probability (After): 46.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:36 ESPN team id 275 (4th & 3 at WISC 34) Andy Vujnovich punt for 48 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 11 yds to the Prdue 29 - WISC 10, PUR 13 -0.61 44.1% -2.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 71

Started Drive at: WISC 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.41 - -0.81 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.81)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.41)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.1%

Win Probability (After): 42.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 4:15 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 29) King Doerue run for 2 yds to the Prdue 31 - WISC 10, PUR 13 -0.34 57.3% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 69

Started Drive at: PUR 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.92 - 1.26 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.26)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.3%

Win Probability (After): 56.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:12 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 8 at PUR 31) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Spencer Holstege for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 28 - WISC 10, PUR 13 -0.93 55.9% -3.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 72

Started Drive at: PUR 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.15 - 0.78 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.78)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.9%

Win Probability (After): 52.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:12 ESPN team id 2509 (3rd & 11 at PUR 28) Timeout WISCONSIN, clock 03:12 - WISC 10, PUR 13 0.00 51.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 72

Started Drive at: PUR 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.15 - -0.15 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.85)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.9%

Win Probability (After): 51.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 3:02 ESPN team id 2509 (3rd & 11 at PUR 28) Aidan O'Connell pass intercepted John Torchio return for 37 yds to the Prdue 1 - WISC 10, PUR 13 -6.44 52.6% -19.4%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 1

Started Drive at: PUR 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -6.38 - 0.05 = -6.44

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.05)

Score Difference (End): -3 (3.38)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 33.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:54 ESPN team id 275 (1st & Goal at PUR 1) Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the Prdue 1 - WISC 10, PUR 13 -0.21 66.5% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 1

Started Drive at: PUR 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.15 - 6.36 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): -3 (3.36)

Score Difference (End): -3 (3.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.5%

Win Probability (After): 65.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:18 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & Goal at PUR 1) Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the Prdue 1 - WISC 10, PUR 13 -0.31 65.5% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 1

Started Drive at: PUR 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.80 - 6.11 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): -3 (3.11)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.5%

Win Probability (After): 63.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:18 ESPN team id 275 (3rd & Goal at PUR 1) Timeout PURDUE, clock 02:18 - WISC 10, PUR 13 0.00 65.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 1

Started Drive at: PUR 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.80 - 5.80 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.80)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.5%

Win Probability (After): 65.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 2:08 ESPN team id 275 (3rd & Goal at PUR 1) Kendric Pryor run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 4 - WISC 10, PUR 13 -2.89 65.7% -8.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 4

Started Drive at: PUR 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 5.71 = -2.89

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.71)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.7%

Win Probability (After): 57.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 2:08 ESPN team id 275 (4th & Goal at PUR 4) Timeout PURDUE, clock 02:08 - WISC 10, PUR 13 0.00 58.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: PUR 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 2.82 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.18)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 10, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.2%

Win Probability (After): 58.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:06 ESPN team id 275 (4th & Goal at PUR 4) Collin Larsh 23 yd FG GOOD - WISC 13, PUR 13 0.21 61.1% 5.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: PUR 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.79 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.1%

Win Probability (After): 66.6%

Away Score: 10 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:06 ESPN team id 2509 (Kickoff at PUR 35) Jack Van Dyke kickoff for 63 yds , TJ Sheffield return for 5 yds to the Prdue 7 TJ Sheffield fumbled, recovered by Prdue TJ Sheffield - WISC 13, PUR 13 -1.12 47.3% -4.6%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 93

Started Drive at: PUR 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.48 - 1.60 = -1.12

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.60)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.3%

Win Probability (After): 42.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:58 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 7) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Broc Thompson for 15 yds to the Prdue 22 for a 1ST down - WISC 13, PUR 13 0.99 42.8% 3.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 78

Started Drive at: PUR 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - 0.47 = 0.99

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.47)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.8%

Win Probability (After): 46.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:45 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 22) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for no gain to the Prdue 22 - WISC 13, PUR 13 -0.36 45.7% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: PUR 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.94 - 1.30 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.30)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.7%

Win Probability (After): 43.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:30 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 10 at PUR 22) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Broc Thompson for 5 yds to the Prdue 27 - WISC 13, PUR 13 -0.07 43.6% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 73

Started Drive at: PUR 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.47 - 0.55 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.55)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.6%

Win Probability (After): 42.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:15 ESPN team id 2509 (3rd & 5 at PUR 27) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 6 yds to the Prdue 33 for a 1ST down - WISC 13, PUR 13 0.72 42.1% 4.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 67

Started Drive at: PUR 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.45 - 0.72 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.1%

Win Probability (After): 46.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:02 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 33) Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Payne Durham - WISC 13, PUR 13 -0.14 47.4% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: PUR 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 1.50 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.50)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.4%

Win Probability (After): 45.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:56 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 10 at PUR 33) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 13 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST down - WISC 13, PUR 13 0.92 45.2% 3.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 54

Started Drive at: PUR 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.01 - 1.09 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.09)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.2%

Win Probability (After): 48.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:45 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 46) PURDUE Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Prdue 31 - WISC 13, PUR 13 -0.97 48.7% -5.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 69

Started Drive at: PUR 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.89 - 1.86 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.7%

Win Probability (After): 42.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:31 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 25 at PUR 31) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Dylan Downing for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 30 - WISC 13, PUR 13 -0.13 42.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 70

Started Drive at: PUR 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.57 - 0.70 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.70)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.5%

Win Probability (After): 42.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:18 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 26 at PUR 30) WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Offside (4 Yards) to the Prdue 34 - WISC 13, PUR 13 0.36 41.8% 1.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 66

Started Drive at: PUR 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 0.30 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.30)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.8%

Win Probability (After): 42.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:01 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 22 at PUR 34) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Milton Wright for 2 yds to the Prdue 36 - WISC 13, PUR 13 -0.15 40.0% 4.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 64

Started Drive at: PUR 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.30 - 0.15 = -0.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.15)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.0%

Win Probability (After): 44.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2509 (Kickoff at PUR 35) Jack Van Dyke kickoff for 61 yds for a touchback - WISC 13, PUR 13 0.00 44.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.7%

Win Probability (After): 44.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:45 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 25) King Doerue run for 6 yds to the Prdue 31 - WISC 13, PUR 13 0.24 47.1% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.28 - 1.04 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.04)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.1%

Win Probability (After): 46.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:20 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 4 at PUR 31) King Doerue run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 30 - WISC 13, PUR 13 -1.27 48.1% -5.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 70

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.16 - 1.43 = -1.27

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.43)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.1%

Win Probability (After): 42.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:55 ESPN team id 2509 (3rd & 5 at PUR 30) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 7 yds Payne Durham fumbled, forced by Collin Wilder, recovered by Wisc Collin Wilder - WISC 13, PUR 13 -3.85 43.0% -10.1%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 37

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.64 - 0.21 = -3.85

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.64)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.0%

Win Probability (After): 32.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:45 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at PUR 37) Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the Prdue 35 Chez Mellusi fumbled, forced by Jaylan Alexander, recovered by Wisc Josh Seltzner - WISC 13, PUR 13 -0.40 67.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 35

Started Drive at: PUR 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.21 - 3.61 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.61)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.1%

Win Probability (After): 66.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:15 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 8 at PUR 35) Graham Mertz sacked by Kydran Jenkins for a loss of 13 yards to the Prdue 48 - WISC 13, PUR 13 -2.61 66.4% -6.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 48

Started Drive at: PUR 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.57 - 3.18 = -2.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.4%

Win Probability (After): 59.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:35 ESPN team id 275 (3rd & 21 at PUR 48) Brady Schipper run for 4 yds to the Prdue 44 - WISC 13, PUR 13 -1.11 59.2% -5.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 44

Started Drive at: PUR 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.47 - 0.63 = -1.11

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.2%

Win Probability (After): 54.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:06 ESPN team id 275 (4th & 17 at PUR 44) Andy Vujnovich punt for 39 yds, downed at the Prdue 5 - WISC 13, PUR 13 0.64 52.9% 1.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 95

Started Drive at: PUR 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - -0.45 = 0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.45)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.19)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.9%

Win Probability (After): 54.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 12:00 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 5) King Doerue run for 7 yds to the Prdue 12 - WISC 13, PUR 13 0.42 45.0% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 95 -> 88

Started Drive at: PUR 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.25 - -0.17 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.0%

Win Probability (After): 47.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:25 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 3 at PUR 12) Dylan Downing run for no gain to the Prdue 12 - WISC 13, PUR 13 -1.01 47.0% -4.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 88

Started Drive at: PUR 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.81 - 0.20 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.20)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.0%

Win Probability (After): 42.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:38 ESPN team id 2509 (3rd & 3 at PUR 12) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 3 yds to the Prdue 15 for a 1ST down - WISC 13, PUR 13 1.31 41.2% 6.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 85

Started Drive at: PUR 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.57 - -0.74 = 1.31

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.74)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.2%

Win Probability (After): 47.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:56 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 15) King Doerue run for 1 yd to the Prdue 16 - WISC 13, PUR 13 -0.77 47.0% -3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 84

Started Drive at: PUR 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - 0.72 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.0%

Win Probability (After): 43.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:25 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 9 at PUR 16) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 24 yds to the Prdue 40 for a 1ST down - WISC 13, PUR 13 2.42 44.9% 6.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 60

Started Drive at: PUR 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.28 - -0.14 = 2.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.9%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:00 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 40) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 3 yds to the Prdue 43 - WISC 13, PUR 13 -0.46 52.7% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 57

Started Drive at: PUR 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - 2.26 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.26)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.7%

Win Probability (After): 51.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:28 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 7 at PUR 43) Jack Plummer run for 5 yds to the Prdue 48 - WISC 13, PUR 13 0.23 51.7% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 52

Started Drive at: PUR 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.99 - 1.76 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.76)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.7%

Win Probability (After): 51.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:47 ESPN team id 2509 (3rd & 2 at PUR 48) King Doerue run for no gain to the Prdue 48 - WISC 13, PUR 13 -1.95 50.3% -5.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: PUR 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - 1.84 = -1.95

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.84)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.3%

Win Probability (After): 44.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:07 ESPN team id 2509 (4th & 2 at PUR 48) Jack Ansell punt for 46 yds, downed at the Wisc 6 - WISC 13, PUR 13 0.21 44.3% 0.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 94

Started Drive at: PUR 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.23 - 0.02 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.23)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.3%

Win Probability (After): 45.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:00 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at WISC 6) Braelon Allen run for 70 yds to the Prdue 24 for a 1ST down - WISC 13, PUR 13 4.62 54.8% 12.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 24

Started Drive at: WISC 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.41 - -0.21 = 4.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.8%

Win Probability (After): 67.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:45 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at PUR 24) Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Prdue 20 - WISC 13, PUR 13 0.02 67.3% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 20

Started Drive at: WISC 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.41 - 4.39 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.39)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 13, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.3%

Win Probability (After): 68.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:06 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 6 at PUR 20) Chez Mellusi run for 20 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) - WISC 20, PUR 13 2.59 69.8% 11.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 99

Started Drive at: WISC 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.41 = 2.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.41)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 94 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.8%

Win Probability (After): 81.6%

Away Score: 13 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:06 ESPN team id 2509 (Kickoff at PUR 35) Collin Larsh kickoff for 57 yds for a touchback - WISC 20, PUR 13 0.00 20.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - -0.06 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.06)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.6%

Win Probability (After): 20.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:45 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 25) Jack Plummer sacked by Isaiah Mullens for a loss of 4 yards to the Prdue 21 - WISC 20, PUR 13 -1.19 20.5% -2.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 79

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.24 - -0.05 = -1.19

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.05)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.5%

Win Probability (After): 18.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:30 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 14 at PUR 21) Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete - WISC 20, PUR 13 -0.94 18.4% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 79

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.16 - -1.22 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.22)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.4%

Win Probability (After): 15.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:21 ESPN team id 2509 (3rd & 14 at PUR 21) Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to David Bell - WISC 20, PUR 13 -0.94 16.0% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 79

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.09 - -2.15 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.15)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-10.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.0%

Win Probability (After): 14.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:15 ESPN team id 2509 (4th & 14 at PUR 21) Jack Ansell punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jack Dunn at the Wisc 44 - WISC 20, PUR 13 -0.18 14.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 56

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.26 - -3.08 = -0.18

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-10.08)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.26)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.5%

Win Probability (After): 14.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 5:11 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at WISC 44) Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric Pryor - WISC 20, PUR 13 -0.55 85.7% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56

Started Drive at: WISC 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.71 - 3.25 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.25)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.7%

Win Probability (After): 85.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:55 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 10 at WISC 44) Braelon Allen run for no gain to the Wisc 44 - WISC 20, PUR 13 -0.93 85.5% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56

Started Drive at: WISC 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.79 - 2.71 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.71)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.5%

Win Probability (After): 84.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:25 ESPN team id 275 (3rd & 10 at WISC 44) Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric Pryor - WISC 20, PUR 13 -1.63 84.3% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56

Started Drive at: WISC 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - 1.82 = -1.63

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.82)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.3%

Win Probability (After): 83.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:16 ESPN team id 275 (4th & 10 at WISC 44) Andy Vujnovich punt for 44 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 7 yds to the Prdue 19 - WISC 20, PUR 13 0.13 83.1% -2.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 81

Started Drive at: WISC 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.34 - 0.21 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.21)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.34)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.1%

Win Probability (After): 80.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 4:00 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 19) Jack Plummer run for 9 yds to the Prdue 28 - WISC 20, PUR 13 0.88 19.7% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 72

Started Drive at: PUR 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - -0.34 = 0.88

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.34)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.7%

Win Probability (After): 20.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:22 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 1 at PUR 28) King Doerue run for 2 yds to the Prdue 30 for a 1ST down - WISC 20, PUR 13 0.04 20.1% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 70

Started Drive at: PUR 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - 0.49 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.51)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.1%

Win Probability (After): 20.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:43 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 30) Jack Plummer run for 1 yd to the Prdue 31 - WISC 20, PUR 13 -0.61 20.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 69

Started Drive at: PUR 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.54 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.46)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.1%

Win Probability (After): 19.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:00 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 9 at PUR 31) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 10 yds to the Prdue 41 for a 1ST down - WISC 20, PUR 13 1.33 20.1% 2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 59

Started Drive at: PUR 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.34 - 0.01 = 1.33

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.99)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.1%

Win Probability (After): 22.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:30 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 41) Jack Plummer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 39 - WISC 20, PUR 13 -1.30 22.4% -2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 61

Started Drive at: PUR 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 1.51 = -1.30

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.49)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.4%

Win Probability (After): 19.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:00 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 12 at PUR 39) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 19 yds to the Wisc 42 for a 1ST down - WISC 20, PUR 13 2.30 20.1% 7.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 42

Started Drive at: PUR 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.61 - 0.31 = 2.30

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.69)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.1%

Win Probability (After): 27.2%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:01 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at WISC 42) Austin Burton run for 1 yd to the Wisc 41 - WISC 20, PUR 13 -0.45 24.9% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 41

Started Drive at: PUR 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 2.62 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.38)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.9%

Win Probability (After): 24.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:45 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 9 at WISC 41) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Payne Durham for 13 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST down - WISC 20, PUR 13 1.57 23.6% 5.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 28

Started Drive at: PUR 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.75 - 2.18 = 1.57

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.82)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.6%

Win Probability (After): 28.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:20 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at WISC 28) Jack Plummer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 29 - WISC 20, PUR 13 -1.10 29.1% -5.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 29

Started Drive at: PUR 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.68 - 3.78 = -1.10

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.22)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.1%

Win Probability (After): 24.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:47 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 11 at WISC 29) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Kyle Bilodeau for 5 yds to the Wisc 24 - WISC 20, PUR 13 0.12 23.4% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 24

Started Drive at: PUR 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.76 - 2.65 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.35)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.4%

Win Probability (After): 24.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:47 ESPN team id 2509 (3rd & 6 at WISC 24) PURDUE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 29 - WISC 20, PUR 13 -1.02 24.0% -2.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 29

Started Drive at: PUR 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.72 - 2.74 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.26)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.0%

Win Probability (After): 21.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:08 ESPN team id 2509 (3rd & 11 at WISC 29) Aidan O'Connell pass intercepted Collin Wilder return for 10 yds to the Wisc 28 - WISC 20, PUR 13 -4.10 22.3% -6.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 72

Started Drive at: PUR 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.37 - 1.72 = -4.10

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.28)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.37)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.3%

Win Probability (After): 15.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:00 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at WISC 28) Braelon Allen run for 5 yds to the Wisc 33 - WISC 20, PUR 13 -0.10 85.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 67

Started Drive at: WISC 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.22 - 2.33 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.33)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.0%

Win Probability (After): 84.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 5 at WISC 33) Chez Mellusi run for 9 yds to the Wisc 42 for a 1ST down - WISC 20, PUR 13 0.75 84.3% 2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 58

Started Drive at: WISC 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.05 - 2.29 = 0.75

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.29)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.3%

Win Probability (After): 86.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:46 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at WISC 42) Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the Wisc 46 - WISC 20, PUR 13 -0.13 87.3% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 54

Started Drive at: WISC 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.94 - 3.08 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.08)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.3%

Win Probability (After): 86.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:08 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 6 at WISC 46) Chez Mellusi run for 35 yds to the Prdue 19 for a 1ST down - WISC 20, PUR 13 2.15 87.6% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 19

Started Drive at: WISC 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.01 - 2.86 = 2.15

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.86)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.6%

Win Probability (After): 89.2%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:30 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at PUR 19) Braelon Allen run for 5 yds to the Prdue 14 - WISC 20, PUR 13 0.04 90.1% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 14

Started Drive at: WISC 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.01 - 4.98 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.98)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 20, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.1%

Win Probability (After): 89.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:13 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 5 at PUR 14) Braelon Allen run for 14 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) - WISC 27, PUR 13 1.98 89.5% 6.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 99

Started Drive at: WISC 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.02 = 1.98

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.02)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 27, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.5%

Win Probability (After): 96.2%

Away Score: 20 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:13 ESPN team id 2509 (Kickoff at PUR 20) Collin Larsh kickoff for 56 yds , Jackson Anthrop return for 15 yds to the Prdue 39 - WISC 27, PUR 13 1.21 4.8% 1.6%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 61

Started Drive at: PUR 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - -0.07 = 1.21

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.07)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 27, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.8%

Win Probability (After): 6.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:05 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 39) Jack Plummer pass incomplete - WISC 27, PUR 13 -0.61 6.4% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: PUR 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 1.16 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.84)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 27, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 5.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:50 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 10 at PUR 39) Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Milton Wright for 7 yds to the Prdue 46 - WISC 27, PUR 13 0.43 4.7% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 54

Started Drive at: PUR 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.92 - 0.50 = 0.43

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.50)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 27, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.7%

Win Probability (After): 5.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:30 ESPN team id 2509 (3rd & 3 at PUR 46) Aidan O'Connell sacked by Leo Chenal for a loss of 7 yards to the Prdue 39 - WISC 27, PUR 13 -2.37 4.6% -1.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 61

Started Drive at: PUR 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.57 - 0.80 = -2.37

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.20)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 27, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.6%

Win Probability (After): 3.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:49 ESPN team id 2509 (4th & 10 at PUR 39) Jack Ansell punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jack Dunn at the Wisc 22 - WISC 27, PUR 13 -0.53 3.4% -1.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 78

Started Drive at: PUR 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.17 - -1.64 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.64)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.17)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 27, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.4%

Win Probability (After): 1.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 8:30 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at WISC 22) Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the Wisc 23 - WISC 27, PUR 13 -0.58 98.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 77

Started Drive at: WISC 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.25 - 1.83 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.83)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 27, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.1%

Win Probability (After): 98.0%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:15 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 9 at WISC 23) Braelon Allen run for 8 yds to the Wisc 31 - WISC 27, PUR 13 0.42 97.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 69

Started Drive at: WISC 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.65 - 1.22 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.22)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 27, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:00 ESPN team id 275 (3rd & 1 at WISC 31) John Chenal run for no gain to the Wisc 31 - WISC 27, PUR 13 -1.67 97.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: WISC 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - 1.57 = -1.67

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.57)

Score Difference (End): 14 (13.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 27, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.7%

Win Probability (After): 97.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:42 ESPN team id 275 (4th & 1 at WISC 31) Andy Vujnovich punt for 44 yds, downed at the Prdue 25 - WISC 27, PUR 13 0.05 97.2% -1.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 75

Started Drive at: WISC 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.00 - -0.05 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): 14 (13.95)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 27, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.2%

Win Probability (After): 95.3%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 6:38 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 25) Jack Plummer run for a loss of 4 yards to the Prdue 21 Jack Plummer fumbled, recovered by Wisc Nick Herbig - WISC 27, PUR 13 -4.94 3.0% -2.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 21

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.76 - 0.18 = -4.94

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.82)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.76)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 27, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:00 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at PUR 21) Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Prdue 18 - WISC 27, PUR 13 -0.17 99.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 18

Started Drive at: PUR 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.45 - 4.63 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.63)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 27, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:30 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 7 at PUR 18) Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the Prdue 15 - WISC 27, PUR 13 -0.06 99.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 15

Started Drive at: PUR 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.21 - 4.27 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.27)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 27, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:00 ESPN team id 275 (3rd & 4 at PUR 15) WISCONSIN Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Prdue 30 - WISC 27, PUR 13 -1.94 99.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 30

Started Drive at: PUR 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.23 - 4.17 = -1.94

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.17)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 27, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:30 ESPN team id 275 (3rd & 19 at PUR 30) Brady Schipper run for 5 yds to the Prdue 25 - WISC 27, PUR 13 -0.43 99.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 25

Started Drive at: PUR 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.68 - 2.11 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.11)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 27, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 99.0%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:06 ESPN team id 275 (4th & 14 at PUR 25) Collin Larsh 43 yd FG GOOD - WISC 30, PUR 13 1.51 99.1% 0.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: PUR 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.49 = 1.51

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.49)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 30, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 27 (30) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:06 ESPN team id 2509 (Kickoff at PUR 35) Collin Larsh kickoff for 62 yds for a touchback - WISC 30, PUR 13 0.00 0.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.47 - 0.47 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.53)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-16.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 30, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:45 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 25) King Doerue run for 3 yds to the Prdue 28 - WISC 30, PUR 13 -0.40 0.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 72

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.11 - 0.51 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.49)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-16.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 30, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:30 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 7 at PUR 28) Jack Plummer pass incomplete to David Bell - WISC 30, PUR 13 -0.65 0.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 72

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.48 - 0.17 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.83)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 30, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:21 ESPN team id 2509 (3rd & 7 at PUR 28) Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 8 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST down - WISC 30, PUR 13 1.78 0.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 64

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.28 - -0.50 = 1.78

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.50)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-15.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 30, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:21 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 10 at PUR 36) PURDUE Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Prdue 21 - WISC 30, PUR 13 -1.14 0.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 79

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.07 - 1.20 = -1.14

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-15.80)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-16.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 30, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.4%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:10 ESPN team id 2509 (1st & 25 at PUR 21) Jack Plummer pass complete to David Bell for 6 yds to the Prdue 27 - WISC 30, PUR 13 -0.50 0.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 73

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.24 - 0.26 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.74)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 30, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.4%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:00 ESPN team id 2509 (2nd & 19 at PUR 27) Jack Plummer pass incomplete to David Bell - WISC 30, PUR 13 -0.51 0.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.51 - 0.01 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.99)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 30, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:15 ESPN team id 2509 (3rd & 19 at PUR 27) Jack Plummer sacked by Noah Burks for a loss of 4 yards to the Prdue 23 - WISC 30, PUR 13 -1.23 0.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 77

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.43 - -0.19 = -1.23

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.19)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-18.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 30, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:50 ESPN team id 2509 (4th & 23 at PUR 23) Jack Plummer pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 5 yds to the Prdue 28 - WISC 30, PUR 13 -1.99 0.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 28

Started Drive at: PUR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.09 - -1.10 = -1.99

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-18.10)

Score Difference (End): 17 (20.09)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WISC 30, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:10 ESPN team id 275 (1st & 10 at PUR 28) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 30 - WISC 30, PUR 13 -1.16 99.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 30

Started Drive at: PUR 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.71 - 2.87 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): 17 (19.87)

Score Difference (End): 17 (18.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 30, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:50 ESPN team id 275 (2nd & 12 at PUR 30) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 32 - WISC 30, PUR 13 -0.44 99.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 32

Started Drive at: PUR 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 1.69 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 17 (18.69)

Score Difference (End): 17 (18.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 30, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:01 ESPN team id 275 (3rd & 14 at PUR 32) TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 35 - WISC 30, PUR 13 -0.23 99.4% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 35

Started Drive at: PUR 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 0.78 = -0.23

Score Difference (Before): 17 (17.78)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WISC 30, PUR 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 30 (30) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3