Baylor 21 @ Oklahoma St 16

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 6.43 | Odds: OKST -7, O/U 45.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 239 ESPN team id 197
Total Plays 7398
Total EPA -13.06-15.1
  Offensive EPA -9.95-24.96
  Special Teams EPA -4.316.57
  Penalty EPA -3.440.37
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 4.642.92
Production ESPN team id 239 ESPN team id 197
Scrimmage Plays 6187
  Yards 242381
  Yards/Play 3.974.38
  EPA -9.95-24.96
  EPA/Play -0.16-0.29
Passes 34 (56%)49 (56%)
  Yards 180263
  Yards/Play 5.295.37
  EPA -2.95-9.84
  EPA/Play -0.09-0.20
Rushes 27 (44%)38 (44%)
  Yards 11891
  Yards/Play 4.372.39
  EPA -7.00-15.12
  EPA/Play -0.26-0.40
Rushing ESPN team id 239 ESPN team id 197
Scrimmage Plays 6187
Rushes 27 (44%)38 (44%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 2 (7%)3 (8%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 2 (100%)1 (33%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 8 (30%)14 (37%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 12 (44%)22 (58%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 14 (52%)12 (32%)
OL Line Yards 37.246.7
  Per Carry 1.381.23
Highlight Yards 36.514
  Per Rush Opportunity 2.611.17
Explosiveness ESPN team id 239 ESPN team id 197
Total Plays 7398
Scrimmage Plays 6187
Explosive Plays 2 (3%)4 (5%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 2 (6%)4 (8%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 0 (0%)0 (0%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -15.97-36.39
  EPA/Play -0.27-0.44
  When Passing -8.97-21.27
    EPA/Play -0.26-0.43
  When Rushing -7.00-15.12
    EPA/Play -0.26-0.40
Situational ESPN team id 239 ESPN team id 197
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 29 (48%)33 (38%)
  When Passing 15 (44%)22 (45%)
  When Rushing 14 (52%)11 (29%)
  On Standard Downs 26 (57%)22 (37%)
  On Passing Downs 3 (20%)11 (39%)
  On Early Downs 23 (50%)21 (32%)
  On Late Downs 6 (40%)12 (57%)
  During "Middle 8" 8 (53%)4 (36%)
Early Downs 4666
  First Downs Created 9 (20%)10 (15%)
  EPA -6.32-32.36
  EPA/Play -0.14-0.49
  Passes 24 (52%)36 (55%)
  Rushes 22 (48%)30 (45%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 12 (50%)14 (39%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 11 (50%)7 (23%)
"Middle 8" Plays 1511
  EPA 1.69-5.26
  EPA/play 0.11-0.48
  Passes 9 (60%)7 (64%)
  Rushes 6 (40%)4 (36%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 3 (33%)2 (29%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 5 (83%)2 (50%)
Drives ESPN team id 239 ESPN team id 197
Total 1313
Avg Starting Field Position Own 36Own 29
Plays/Drive 6.729.89
Yards/Drive 29.5445.45
Available Yards % 46%64%
Defensive ESPN team id 239 ESPN team id 197
Scrimmage Plays 8761
Stop Rate 33%49%
Havoc Plays Created 13 (15%)12 (20%)
  Passing 7 (14%)7 (21%)
  Rushing 6 (16%)5 (19%)
TFLs Generated 911
  Passing 37
  Rushing 64
Sacks Generated 2 (4%)6 (18%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 40
Fumbles Forced 02
Turnovers ESPN team id 239 ESPN team id 197
Turnovers 15
  Fumbles 23
  Fumbles Lost 11
  Fumbles Recovered 12
  Interceptions 04
Turnover Margin 4-4
Expected Turnovers 2.53.4
Expected Turnover Margin 0.9-0.9
Turnover Luck (pts) 15.6-15.6
Special Teams ESPN team id 239 ESPN team id 197
Total Plays 12 11
Total EPA -4.31 6.57
  Field Goal EPA -4.28 0.84
  Punting EPA 2.24 5.73
  Kickoff Return EPA -2.27 0

Baylor [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Blake Shapen 23/28, 180 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 5 Scks, 44.2 xQBR 5.45 -0.02 -0.62 45% -27.0%
Tyquan Thornton 0/0, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 23.6 xQBR 0.00 -2.33 -2.33 0% -6.0%
Rush attempts
Blake Shapen 4 carries, 36 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 0.51 2.04 50% 12.0%
Dillon Doyle 1 carry, 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 0.57 0.57 100% 0.0%
Abram Smith 17 carries, 63 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.71 -0.24 -4.11 53% -18.0%
Trestan Ebner 5 carries, 17 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 3.40 -1.10 -5.50 40% -13.0%
Pass targets
Tyquan Thornton 6 catches (8 targets), 71 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.83 0.96 7.67 62% 6.0%
Ben Sims 4 catches (5 targets), 34 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.50 0.48 2.42 60% -1.0%
Drew Estrada 6 catches (6 targets), 33 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.50 0.30 1.81 67% 7.0%
Trestan Ebner 3 catches (3 targets), 27 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 0.14 0.41 33% 1.0%
R.J. Sneed 1 catch (2 targets), 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 0.15 0.30 50% 0.0%
Drake Dabney 1 catch (1 target), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.01 0.01 100% 1.0%
Gavin Yates 1 catch (1 target), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.04 -0.04 0% -2.0%
Grant Miller 1 catch (1 target), -2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -2.00 -1.19 -1.19 0% -4.0%

Oklahoma State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Brennan Presley 1/1, 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 90.8 xQBR 6.00 1.68 1.68 100% 4.0%
Spencer Sanders 31/46, 257 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT, 2 Scks, 54.5 xQBR 5.35 -0.24 -11.52 44% 0.0%
Rush attempts
Spencer Sanders 11 carries, 54 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 4.91 0.12 1.29 55% 2.0%
Brennan Presley 1 carry, 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.33 -0.33 0% -1.0%
Dominic Richardson 7 carries, 2 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.29 -0.55 -3.87 14% 2.0%
Dezmon Jackson 19 carries, 31 yds, 0 TD, 2 Fum (1 lost) 1.63 -0.64 -12.21 21% -67.0%
Pass targets
Tay Martin 9 catches (12 targets), 88 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.78 0.73 8.72 58% 27.0%
Brennan Presley 2 catches (3 targets), 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 1.16 3.47 67% 11.0%
Dominic Richardson 2 catches (2 targets), 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 0.97 1.94 50% 5.0%
Dezmon Jackson 7 catches (7 targets), 39 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.57 0.25 1.72 57% 6.0%
Spencer Sanders 1 catch (1 target), 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 1.68 1.68 100% 4.0%
John Paul Richardson 5 catches (5 targets), 33 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.60 0.26 1.30 60% 12.0%
Jaden Bray 3 catches (4 targets), 52 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 17.33 0.30 1.21 50% 3.0%
Tyler Lacy 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.96 -0.96 0% -18.0%
Braden Cassity 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.02 -1.02 0% -2.0%
Blaine Green 3 catches (6 targets), 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.67 -0.26 -1.56 33% 5.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 12:47 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 11 at OKST 20) Tom Hutton punt for 45 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 30 Trestan Ebner fumbled, recovered by OKSt Korie Black - BAY 21, OKST 13 6.33 14.3% 20.1%

Play Type: Punt Team Fumble Recovery

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 30

Started Drive at: OKST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.72 - -2.61 = 6.33

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-10.61)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-4.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.3%

Win Probability (After): 34.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:24 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 35) Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Brayden Utley return for 15 yds to the OKSt 22 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -5.92 28.9% -10.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 22

Started Drive at: OKST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.66 - 1.26 = -5.92

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.74)

Score Difference (End): 8 (12.66)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.9%

Win Probability (After): 18.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:48 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 9 at OKST 23) Spencer Sanders pass intercepted JT Woods return for 33 yds to the OKSt 11 - BAY 0, OKST 3 -5.72 74.8% -13.3%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 11

Started Drive at: OKST 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -5.04 - 0.68 = -5.72

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.68)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.04)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 0, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.8%

Win Probability (After): 61.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:48 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 37) Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Matt Jones return for no gain to the OKSt 37 - BAY 7, OKST 3 -5.49 53.1% -7.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 37

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.78 - 1.71 = -5.49

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.29)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.78)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 7, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.1%

Win Probability (After): 45.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:14 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 6 at OKST 30) Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the OKSt 26 Trestan Ebner fumbled, forced by Malcolm Rodriguez, recovered by OKSt Tyler Lacy - BAY 0, OKST 0 -5.20 42.0% -11.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 74

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.38 - 3.82 = -5.20

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.82)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.38)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.0%

Win Probability (After): 30.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:14 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 10 at BAY 40) Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Jairon McVea return for no gain to the Bayl 27 - BAY 21, OKST 6 -4.70 21.3% -5.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 73

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.77 - 1.93 = -4.70

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-13.07)

Score Difference (End): 15 (17.77)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.3%

Win Probability (After): 15.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:24 ESPN team id 197 (4th & Goal at BAY 1) Dezmon Jackson run for no gain to the Bayl 1 - BAY 21, OKST 16 -4.50 46.9% -43.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 4.49 = -4.50

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-0.51)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.01)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 17 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.9%

Win Probability (After): 3.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:29 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 1 at BAY 36) Blake Shapen pass incomplete - BAY 21, OKST 6 -3.74 84.5% -6.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 36

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.83 - 0.91 = -3.74

Score Difference (Before): 15 (15.91)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-12.17)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.5%

Win Probability (After): 78.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:29 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & Goal at OKST 13) Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 13 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 21, OKST 3 3.32 76.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: OKST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.68 = 3.32

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.68)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.8%

Win Probability (After): 76.6%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:00 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 11 at BAY 26) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 11 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 6 3.11 16.6% 8.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 15

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.71 - 1.60 = 3.11

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-13.40)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-10.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.6%

Win Probability (After): 24.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 0:24 ESPN team id 197 (4th & Goal at BAY 1) Dezmon Jackson run for no gain to the Bayl 1 - BAY 21, OKST 16 -4.50 46.9% -43.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 4.49 = -4.50

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-0.51)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.01)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 17 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.9%

Win Probability (After): 3.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:27 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 3 at BAY 6) BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Mark Milton) to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 16 1.71 48.3% 22.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 2

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.98 - 4.26 = 1.71

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-0.74)

Score Difference (End): -5 (0.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.3%

Win Probability (After): 70.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 12:47 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 11 at OKST 20) Tom Hutton punt for 45 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 30 Trestan Ebner fumbled, recovered by OKSt Korie Black - BAY 21, OKST 13 6.33 14.3% 20.1%

Play Type: Punt Team Fumble Recovery

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 30

Started Drive at: OKST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.72 - -2.61 = 6.33

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-10.61)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-4.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.3%

Win Probability (After): 34.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:30 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & Goal at BAY 1) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tyler Lacy - BAY 21, OKST 16 -0.96 68.7% -17.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 1

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.56 - 5.52 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): -5 (0.52)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-0.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.7%

Win Probability (After): 50.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 8:17 ESPN team id 197 (4th & Goal at BAY 3) Tanner Brown 20 yd FG GOOD - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.24 25.8% 16.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 3

Started Drive at: BAY 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.76 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.24)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.8%

Win Probability (After): 42.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:48 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 9 at OKST 23) Spencer Sanders pass intercepted JT Woods return for 33 yds to the OKSt 11 - BAY 0, OKST 3 -5.72 74.8% -13.3%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 11

Started Drive at: OKST 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -5.04 - 0.68 = -5.72

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.68)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.04)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 0, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.8%

Win Probability (After): 61.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:14 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 6 at OKST 30) Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the OKSt 26 Trestan Ebner fumbled, forced by Malcolm Rodriguez, recovered by OKSt Tyler Lacy - BAY 0, OKST 0 -5.20 42.0% -11.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 74

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.38 - 3.82 = -5.20

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.82)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.38)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.0%

Win Probability (After): 30.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:54 ESPN team id 239 (1st & Goal at OKST 4) Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 4 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 14, OKST 3 0.89 55.7% 10.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: OKST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.11 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): 4 (10.11)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.7%

Win Probability (After): 66.3%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:40 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & Goal at BAY 1) Dezmon Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 3 Dezmon Jackson fumbled, recovered by OKSt Brennan Presley - BAY 21, OKST 13 -2.98 38.3% -10.1%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 3

Started Drive at: BAY 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 5.79 = -2.98

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-2.21)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-5.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.3%

Win Probability (After): 28.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:24 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 35) Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Brayden Utley return for 15 yds to the OKSt 22 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -5.92 28.9% -10.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 22

Started Drive at: OKST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.66 - 1.26 = -5.92

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.74)

Score Difference (End): 8 (12.66)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.9%

Win Probability (After): 18.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 7:52 ESPN team id 197 (4th & Goal at BAY 6) Tanner Brown 23 yd FG GOOD - BAY 0, OKST 3 0.18 73.8% 4.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: OKST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.82 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.82)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.8%

Win Probability (After): 78.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 3:21 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 1 at OKST 2) Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 2 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 7, OKST 3 1.37 40.9% 5.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: OKST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.63 = 1.37

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.63)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.9%

Win Probability (After): 46.3%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:54 ESPN team id 239 (1st & Goal at OKST 4) Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 4 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 14, OKST 3 0.89 55.7% 10.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: OKST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.11 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): 4 (10.11)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.7%

Win Probability (After): 66.3%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:29 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & Goal at OKST 13) Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 13 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 21, OKST 3 3.32 76.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: OKST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.68 = 3.32

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.68)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.8%

Win Probability (After): 76.6%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:34 ESPN team id 197 (4th & Goal at BAY 6) Tanner Brown 23 yd FG GOOD - BAY 21, OKST 6 0.42 24.6% 3.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.58 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-15.42)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-15.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.6%

Win Probability (After): 28.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:09 ESPN team id 197 (1st & Goal at BAY 4) Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK) - BAY 21, OKST 13 1.22 24.4% 7.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.78 = 1.22

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-9.22)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.4%

Win Probability (After): 32.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:17 ESPN team id 197 (4th & Goal at BAY 3) Tanner Brown 20 yd FG GOOD - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.24 25.8% 16.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 3

Started Drive at: BAY 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.76 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.24)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.8%

Win Probability (After): 42.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 239 (Kickoff at BAY 35) Tanner Brown kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 0, OKST 0 0.00 27.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.5%

Win Probability (After): 27.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:51 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 25) Blake Shapen pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 22 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, OKST 0 1.41 32.2% 1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 53

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - 1.08 = 1.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.2%

Win Probability (After): 33.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:29 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 47) BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Drake Dabney) to the Bayl 42 - BAY 0, OKST 0 -0.44 36.5% -2.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 58

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.19 - 2.63 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.5%

Win Probability (After): 34.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:01 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 15 at BAY 42) Trestan Ebner run for 10 yds to the OKSt 48 - BAY 0, OKST 0 0.94 35.5% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 48

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.78 - 1.83 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.83)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.5%

Win Probability (After): 36.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:28 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 5 at OKST 48) Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 14 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, OKST 0 1.18 38.2% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 34

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.95 - 2.77 = 1.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.2%

Win Probability (After): 39.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:48 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at OKST 34) Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Yates for 4 yds to the OKSt 30 - BAY 0, OKST 0 -0.04 41.6% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 30

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.83 - 3.87 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.87)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.6%

Win Probability (After): 39.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:14 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 6 at OKST 30) Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the OKSt 26 Trestan Ebner fumbled, forced by Malcolm Rodriguez, recovered by OKSt Tyler Lacy - BAY 0, OKST 0 -5.20 42.0% -11.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 74

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.38 - 3.82 = -5.20

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.82)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.38)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.0%

Win Probability (After): 30.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:07 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 26) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Blaine Green - BAY 0, OKST 0 -0.86 69.7% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: OKST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.50 - 1.36 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.36)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.7%

Win Probability (After): 68.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:00 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 10 at OKST 26) Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the OKSt 28 Spencer Sanders fumbled, recovered by OKSt Spencer Sanders - BAY 0, OKST 0 -1.05 68.7% -2.3%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 72

Started Drive at: OKST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.52 - 0.53 = -1.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.7%

Win Probability (After): 66.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:18 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 8 at OKST 28) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dominic Richardson for 8 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, OKST 0 2.59 65.6% 6.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 64

Started Drive at: OKST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - -0.59 = 2.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.59)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.6%

Win Probability (After): 71.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:01 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 36) Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the OKSt 38 - BAY 0, OKST 0 -0.61 71.2% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 62

Started Drive at: OKST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.34 - 1.95 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.2%

Win Probability (After): 69.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:43 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 8 at OKST 38) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Braden Cassity - BAY 0, OKST 0 -1.02 69.2% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: OKST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.47 - 1.49 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.2%

Win Probability (After): 67.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:26 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 8 at OKST 38) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 10 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, OKST 0 2.16 67.4% 5.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 52

Started Drive at: OKST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.76 - 0.60 = 2.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.60)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.4%

Win Probability (After): 72.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:11 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 48) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 8 yds to the Bayl 44 - BAY 0, OKST 0 0.68 72.7% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 44

Started Drive at: OKST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 2.77 = 0.68

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.7%

Win Probability (After): 73.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:52 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 2 at BAY 44) Spencer Sanders run for no gain to the Bayl 44 - BAY 0, OKST 0 -0.98 69.4% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: OKST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.55 - 3.53 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.4%

Win Probability (After): 72.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:20 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 2 at BAY 44) Dezmon Jackson run for 10 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, OKST 0 1.47 67.9% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 34

Started Drive at: OKST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.98 - 2.51 = 1.47

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.51)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.9%

Win Probability (After): 69.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:08 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at BAY 34) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaden Bray for 26 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, OKST 0 1.56 70.7% 2.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 8

Started Drive at: OKST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.45 - 3.89 = 1.56

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.89)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.7%

Win Probability (After): 73.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:48 ESPN team id 197 (1st & Goal at BAY 8) Dezmon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 7 - BAY 0, OKST 0 -0.50 74.8% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 7

Started Drive at: OKST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.95 - 5.45 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.45)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.8%

Win Probability (After): 73.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:14 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & Goal at BAY 7) Dominic Richardson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 6 - BAY 0, OKST 0 -0.85 71.0% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 6

Started Drive at: OKST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.10 - 4.95 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.0%

Win Probability (After): 72.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:56 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & Goal at BAY 6) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Blaine Green - BAY 0, OKST 0 -1.28 75.2% -7.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: OKST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.83 - 4.11 = -1.28

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.2%

Win Probability (After): 67.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:52 ESPN team id 197 (4th & Goal at BAY 6) Tanner Brown 23 yd FG GOOD - BAY 0, OKST 3 0.18 73.8% 4.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: OKST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.82 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.82)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.8%

Win Probability (After): 78.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 7:52 ESPN team id 239 (Kickoff at BAY 35) Tanner Brown kickoff for 65 yds , Trestan Ebner return for 21 yds to the Bayl 21 - BAY 0, OKST 3 -1.28 29.0% -1.7%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 79

Started Drive at: BAY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.58 - 0.70 = -1.28

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.30)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.0%

Win Probability (After): 27.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:36 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 21) Blake Shapen pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 8 yds to the Bayl 29 - BAY 0, OKST 3 0.62 28.2% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 71

Started Drive at: BAY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 0.52 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.48)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.2%

Win Probability (After): 28.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:30 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 2 at BAY 29) Abram Smith run for no gain to the Bayl 29 - BAY 0, OKST 3 -0.95 28.9% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: BAY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.15 - 1.10 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.90)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.9%

Win Probability (After): 27.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:16 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 2 at BAY 29) Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 30 - BAY 0, OKST 3 -1.39 27.1% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 70

Started Drive at: BAY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.21 - 0.18 = -1.39

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.82)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.1%

Win Probability (After): 25.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:40 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 1 at BAY 30) Issac Power punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 22 - BAY 0, OKST 3 -0.13 24.5% 1.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 78

Started Drive at: BAY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.26 - -1.14 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.14)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.26)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 0, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.5%

Win Probability (After): 25.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 5:10 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 22) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaden Bray for 1 yd to the OKSt 23 - BAY 0, OKST 3 -0.61 75.1% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 77

Started Drive at: OKST 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.67 - 1.27 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.27)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.1%

Win Probability (After): 73.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:48 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 9 at OKST 23) Spencer Sanders pass intercepted JT Woods return for 33 yds to the OKSt 11 - BAY 0, OKST 3 -5.72 74.8% -13.3%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 11

Started Drive at: OKST 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -5.04 - 0.68 = -5.72

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.68)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.04)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 0, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.8%

Win Probability (After): 61.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:34 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at OKST 11) Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 9 yds to the OKSt 2 - BAY 0, OKST 3 1.04 41.7% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 2

Started Drive at: OKST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.09 - 5.05 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.05)

Score Difference (End): -3 (3.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.7%

Win Probability (After): 38.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:46 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 1 at OKST 2) Blake Shapen run for no gain to the OKSt 2 - BAY 0, OKST 3 -0.45 41.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 2

Started Drive at: OKST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.64 - 6.09 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): -3 (3.09)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.8%

Win Probability (After): 41.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:21 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 1 at OKST 2) Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 2 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 7, OKST 3 1.37 40.9% 5.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: OKST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.63 = 1.37

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.63)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.9%

Win Probability (After): 46.3%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:21 ESPN team id 197 (Kickoff at OKST 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 7, OKST 3 0.00 55.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.67 - 0.67 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.33)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.9%

Win Probability (After): 55.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:12 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 25) Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the OKSt 29 - BAY 7, OKST 3 -0.05 55.7% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 0.69 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.31)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.7%

Win Probability (After): 55.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:41 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 6 at OKST 29) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Blaine Green for 2 yds to the OKSt 31 - BAY 7, OKST 3 -0.46 50.7% 3.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 69

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 0.65 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.35)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.7%

Win Probability (After): 53.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:19 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 4 at OKST 31) Spencer Sanders run for 6 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, OKST 3 1.47 49.4% 4.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 63

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.68 - 0.21 = 1.47

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.79)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.4%

Win Probability (After): 53.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:48 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 37) Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Matt Jones return for no gain to the OKSt 37 - BAY 7, OKST 3 -5.49 53.1% -7.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 37

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.78 - 1.71 = -5.49

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.29)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.78)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 7, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.1%

Win Probability (After): 45.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:41 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at OKST 37) OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jarrick Bernard-Converse) to the OKSt 22 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, OKST 3 0.96 54.1% 1.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 22

Started Drive at: OKST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.73 - 3.78 = 0.96

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.78)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.1%

Win Probability (After): 55.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:37 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at OKST 22) OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Kody Walterscheid) to the OKSt 17 - BAY 7, OKST 3 0.69 55.6% 1.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 17

Started Drive at: OKST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.43 - 4.74 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.74)

Score Difference (End): 4 (9.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.6%

Win Probability (After): 57.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:45 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 5 at OKST 17) Blake Shapen sacked by Tre Sterling for a loss of 8 yards to the OKSt 25 - BAY 7, OKST 3 -1.94 57.4% -4.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 25

Started Drive at: OKST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.48 - 5.42 = -1.94

Score Difference (Before): 4 (9.42)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, -8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.4%

Win Probability (After): 53.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:02 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 13 at OKST 25) Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 21 yds to the OKSt 4 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, OKST 3 2.70 55.5% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 4

Started Drive at: OKST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.15 - 3.45 = 2.70

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.45)

Score Difference (End): 4 (10.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.5%

Win Probability (After): 57.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:54 ESPN team id 239 (1st & Goal at OKST 4) Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 4 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 14, OKST 3 0.89 55.7% 10.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: OKST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.11 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): 4 (10.11)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.7%

Win Probability (After): 66.3%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:54 ESPN team id 197 (Kickoff at OKST 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 14, OKST 3 0.00 31.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 0.13 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.87)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.5%

Win Probability (After): 31.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:30 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 25) Dezmon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 24 - BAY 14, OKST 3 -0.93 34.3% -5.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 76

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.87 - 0.07 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.93)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.3%

Win Probability (After): 29.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:05 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 11 at OKST 24) Dezmon Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 20 - BAY 14, OKST 3 -1.18 32.2% -3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 80

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.09 - -0.91 = -1.18

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.91)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-13.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.2%

Win Probability (After): 28.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:27 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 15 at OKST 20) Dezmon Jackson run for 2 yds to the OKSt 22 - BAY 14, OKST 3 -0.80 29.4% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 78

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.89 - -2.09 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-13.09)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-13.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.4%

Win Probability (After): 27.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:06 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 13 at OKST 22) Tom Hutton punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 31 - BAY 14, OKST 3 0.15 28.1% 0.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 69

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.75 - -2.90 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-13.90)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.75)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.1%

Win Probability (After): 29.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 12:57 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 31) Blake Shapen pass complete to Trestan Ebner for no gain to the Bayl 31 - BAY 14, OKST 3 -0.66 70.7% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: BAY 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.99 - 2.65 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.65)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.7%

Win Probability (After): 69.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:18 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 10 at BAY 31) Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 32 - BAY 14, OKST 3 -0.99 69.7% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 68

Started Drive at: BAY 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 2.07 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.07)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.7%

Win Probability (After): 68.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:38 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 9 at BAY 32) Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 7 yds to the Bayl 39 - BAY 14, OKST 3 -0.49 68.5% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 61

Started Drive at: BAY 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 1.12 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.12)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.5%

Win Probability (After): 69.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:07 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 2 at BAY 39) Issac Power punt for 53 yds, downed at the OKSt 8 - BAY 14, OKST 3 0.22 69.6% -0.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 92

Started Drive at: BAY 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.97 - 0.75 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.75)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.97)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.6%

Win Probability (After): 68.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 10:57 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 8) Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 7 - BAY 14, OKST 3 -0.83 31.7% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 93

Started Drive at: OKST 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.60 - -0.78 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.78)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-12.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.7%

Win Probability (After): 30.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:17 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 11 at OKST 7) Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 6 - BAY 14, OKST 3 -0.98 28.7% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 94

Started Drive at: OKST 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.51 - -1.53 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-12.53)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-13.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.7%

Win Probability (After): 27.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:46 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 12 at OKST 6) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan Presley - BAY 14, OKST 3 -0.61 24.2% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 94

Started Drive at: OKST 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.05 - -2.44 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-13.44)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-14.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.2%

Win Probability (After): 25.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:38 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 12 at OKST 6) Tom Hutton punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the OKLAST 48 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 47 - BAY 14, OKST 3 -0.53 22.9% 1.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 47

Started Drive at: OKST 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.58 - -3.06 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-14.05)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.58)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.9%

Win Probability (After): 24.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:25 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at OKST 47) Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 5 yds to the OKSt 42 - BAY 14, OKST 3 0.01 73.3% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 42

Started Drive at: OKST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.53 - 3.52 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.52)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.3%

Win Probability (After): 74.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:33 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 5 at OKST 42) Abram Smith run for 12 yds to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST down - BAY 14, OKST 3 1.12 72.9% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 30

Started Drive at: OKST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.47 - 3.35 = 1.12

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.35)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.9%

Win Probability (After): 73.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:17 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at OKST 30) Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 11 yds to the OKSt 19 for a 1ST down - BAY 14, OKST 3 0.66 73.5% 1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 19

Started Drive at: OKST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.91 - 4.25 = 0.66

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.25)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.5%

Win Probability (After): 75.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:48 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at OKST 19) Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the OKSt 14 - BAY 14, OKST 3 0.13 75.4% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 14

Started Drive at: OKST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.93 - 4.81 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.81)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.4%

Win Probability (After): 75.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:30 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 5 at OKST 14) Abram Smith run for 4 yds to the OKSt 10 - BAY 14, OKST 3 0.07 75.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 10

Started Drive at: OKST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.00 - 4.93 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.93)

Score Difference (End): 11 (16.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.3%

Win Probability (After): 75.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:43 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 1 at OKST 10) Trestan Ebner run for 4 yds to the OKSt 6 for a 1ST down - BAY 14, OKST 3 0.76 77.0% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 6

Started Drive at: OKST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.78 - 5.02 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.02)

Score Difference (End): 11 (16.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.0%

Win Probability (After): 76.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:15 ESPN team id 239 (1st & Goal at OKST 6) Blake Shapen sacked by Collin Oliver for a loss of 15 yards to the OKSt 21 BAYLOR Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Blake Shapen) to the OKSt 21 - BAY 14, OKST 3 -2.33 78.7% -3.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 21

Started Drive at: OKST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 5.77 = -2.33

Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.78)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.7%

Win Probability (After): 75.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:00 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & Goal at OKST 21) Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 8 yds to the OKSt 13 - BAY 14, OKST 3 -0.10 75.6% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 13

Started Drive at: OKST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.36 - 3.46 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.46)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.6%

Win Probability (After): 76.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:29 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & Goal at OKST 13) Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 13 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 21, OKST 3 3.32 76.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: OKST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.68 = 3.32

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.68)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.8%

Win Probability (After): 76.6%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:29 ESPN team id 197 (Kickoff at OKST 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 21, OKST 3 0.00 21.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.25 - 0.25 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.75)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.6%

Win Probability (After): 21.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:22 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 25) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dezmon Jackson for 6 yds to the OKSt 31 - BAY 21, OKST 3 0.07 21.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - 0.38 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.62)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.4%

Win Probability (After): 21.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:04 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 4 at OKST 31) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaden Bray for 25 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 3 1.92 21.1% 4.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 44

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 0.66 = 1.92

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.34)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-15.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.1%

Win Probability (After): 25.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:51 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at BAY 44) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay Martin - BAY 21, OKST 3 -0.49 25.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.19 - 2.67 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-15.33)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-15.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.1%

Win Probability (After): 24.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:40 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 10 at BAY 44) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dezmon Jackson for no gain to the Bayl 44 - BAY 21, OKST 3 -0.61 24.1% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - 2.06 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-15.94)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-16.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.1%

Win Probability (After): 22.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:20 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 10 at BAY 44) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 16 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 3 2.17 22.8% 4.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 28

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.67 - 1.50 = 2.17

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-16.50)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-14.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.8%

Win Probability (After): 27.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:08 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at BAY 28) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dezmon Jackson for 7 yds to the Bayl 21 - BAY 21, OKST 3 0.77 28.0% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 21

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.37 - 3.60 = 0.77

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.40)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-13.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.0%

Win Probability (After): 28.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:55 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 3 at BAY 21) BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Al Walcott) to the Bayl 6 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 3 1.25 28.4% 1.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 6

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.47 - 4.22 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-13.78)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-12.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.4%

Win Probability (After): 29.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:51 ESPN team id 197 (1st & Goal at BAY 6) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay Martin - BAY 21, OKST 3 -0.47 30.5% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.02 - 5.49 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-12.51)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-12.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.5%

Win Probability (After): 29.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:46 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & Goal at BAY 6) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay Martin - BAY 21, OKST 3 -0.90 29.8% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.11 - 5.01 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-12.99)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-13.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.8%

Win Probability (After): 28.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:38 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & Goal at BAY 6) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jaden Bray - BAY 21, OKST 3 -1.67 27.8% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.50 - 4.16 = -1.67

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-13.84)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-15.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.8%

Win Probability (After): 25.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:34 ESPN team id 197 (4th & Goal at BAY 6) Tanner Brown 23 yd FG GOOD - BAY 21, OKST 6 0.42 24.6% 3.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.58 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-15.42)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-15.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.6%

Win Probability (After): 28.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 3:34 ESPN team id 239 (Kickoff at BAY 35) Tanner Brown kickoff for 65 yds , Trestan Ebner return for 19 yds to the Bayl 19 - BAY 21, OKST 6 -0.99 80.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 81

Started Drive at: BAY 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.37 - 1.36 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): 15 (16.36)

Score Difference (End): 15 (15.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.3%

Win Probability (After): 80.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:23 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 19) Abram Smith run for 12 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 6 0.53 80.0% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 69

Started Drive at: BAY 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 1.08 = 0.53

Score Difference (Before): 15 (16.08)

Score Difference (End): 15 (16.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.0%

Win Probability (After): 80.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:00 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 31) Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the Bayl 36 - BAY 21, OKST 6 0.02 81.1% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 64

Started Drive at: BAY 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.57 - 1.55 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): 15 (16.55)

Score Difference (End): 15 (16.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.1%

Win Probability (After): 80.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:27 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 5 at BAY 36) Blake Shapen pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 5 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 6 0.49 81.0% 2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 59

Started Drive at: BAY 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - 1.48 = 0.49

Score Difference (Before): 15 (16.48)

Score Difference (End): 15 (16.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.0%

Win Probability (After): 83.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:09 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 41) Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 48 - BAY 21, OKST 6 0.07 83.8% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 52

Started Drive at: BAY 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - 1.90 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): 15 (16.90)

Score Difference (End): 15 (16.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.8%

Win Probability (After): 83.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:21 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 3 at BAY 48) Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 1 yd to the Bayl 49 - BAY 21, OKST 6 -0.09 83.6% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 51

Started Drive at: BAY 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.43 - 1.52 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): 15 (16.52)

Score Difference (End): 15 (16.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.6%

Win Probability (After): 83.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:48 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 2 at BAY 49) Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 17 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 6 1.60 84.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 34

Started Drive at: BAY 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.65 - 1.05 = 1.60

Score Difference (Before): 15 (16.05)

Score Difference (End): 15 (17.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.5%

Win Probability (After): 84.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:46 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at OKST 34) Timeout BAYLOR, clock 00:46 - BAY 21, OKST 6 0.00 85.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: BAY 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.65 - 2.65 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 15 (17.65)

Score Difference (End): 15 (17.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.9%

Win Probability (After): 85.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:31 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at OKST 34) Blake Shapen run for 8 yds to the OKSt 26 - BAY 21, OKST 6 0.95 84.6% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 26

Started Drive at: BAY 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 2.33 = 0.95

Score Difference (Before): 15 (17.33)

Score Difference (End): 15 (18.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.6%

Win Probability (After): 85.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:25 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 2 at OKST 26) Blake Shapen pass incomplete to R.J. Sneed - BAY 21, OKST 6 -0.32 85.6% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: BAY 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.76 - 3.08 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): 15 (18.08)

Score Difference (End): 15 (17.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.6%

Win Probability (After): 84.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:20 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 2 at OKST 26) Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the OKSt 21 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 6 0.39 84.5% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 21

Started Drive at: BAY 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.02 - 2.62 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): 15 (17.62)

Score Difference (End): 15 (18.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.5%

Win Probability (After): 85.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:14 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at OKST 21) Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton - BAY 21, OKST 6 -0.03 85.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: BAY 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - 2.77 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): 15 (17.77)

Score Difference (End): 15 (17.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.5%

Win Probability (After): 85.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:10 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 10 at OKST 21) Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ben Sims - BAY 21, OKST 6 0.13 84.8% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: BAY 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.44 - 2.31 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): 15 (17.31)

Score Difference (End): 15 (17.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.8%

Win Probability (After): 84.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:10 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 10 at OKST 21) Timeout BAYLOR, clock 00:10 - BAY 21, OKST 6 0.00 83.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: BAY 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.44 - 2.44 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 15 (17.44)

Score Difference (End): 15 (17.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.9%

Win Probability (After): 83.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:05 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 10 at OKST 21) Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Tyquan Thornton - BAY 21, OKST 6 -0.15 83.1% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: BAY 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.92 - 2.07 = -0.15

Score Difference (Before): 15 (17.07)

Score Difference (End): 15 (16.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.1%

Win Probability (After): 81.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:05 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 10 at OKST 21) Isaiah Hankins 39 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Korie Black - BAY 21, OKST 6 -1.94 81.4% -1.4%

Play Type: Blocked Field Goal

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 80

Started Drive at: BAY 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 1.94 = -1.94

Score Difference (Before): 15 (16.94)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-14.97)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.4%

Win Probability (After): 80.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 197 (Kickoff at OKST 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 21, OKST 6 0.00 20.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.61 - -0.61 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-15.61)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-15.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.0%

Win Probability (After): 20.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:50 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 25) Spencer Sanders run for 11 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 6 1.01 22.5% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 64

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.47 - -0.54 = 1.01

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-15.54)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-14.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.5%

Win Probability (After): 22.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:31 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 36) Dezmon Jackson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 37 - BAY 21, OKST 6 -0.67 23.9% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 63

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.11 - 0.55 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-14.45)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-15.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.9%

Win Probability (After): 25.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:00 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 9 at OKST 37) Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 7 yds to the OKSt 44 - BAY 21, OKST 6 0.55 20.8% 3.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 56

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - -0.10 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-15.10)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-14.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.8%

Win Probability (After): 23.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:47 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 2 at OKST 44) Spencer Sanders run for 4 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 6 1.04 22.6% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 52

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.51 - 0.46 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-14.54)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-13.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.6%

Win Probability (After): 24.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:13 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 48) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dezmon Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 43 - BAY 21, OKST 6 -1.62 22.1% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 57

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.18 - 1.44 = -1.62

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-13.56)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-15.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.1%

Win Probability (After): 19.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:54 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 15 at OKST 43) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 17 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 6 2.86 17.2% 5.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 40

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - -0.23 = 2.86

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-15.23)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-12.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.2%

Win Probability (After): 22.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:27 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at BAY 40) Dezmon Jackson run for no gain to the Bayl 40 - BAY 21, OKST 6 -0.70 21.9% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.92 - 2.63 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-12.37)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-13.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.9%

Win Probability (After): 21.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:14 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 10 at BAY 40) Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Jairon McVea return for no gain to the Bayl 27 - BAY 21, OKST 6 -4.70 21.3% -5.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 73

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.77 - 1.93 = -4.70

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-13.07)

Score Difference (End): 15 (17.77)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.3%

Win Probability (After): 15.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:04 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 27) Trestan Ebner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 25 - BAY 21, OKST 6 -1.02 84.4% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 75

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.79 - 2.81 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): 15 (17.81)

Score Difference (End): 15 (16.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.4%

Win Probability (After): 83.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:37 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 12 at BAY 25) Blake Shapen pass complete to Trestan Ebner for 5 yds to the Bayl 30 - BAY 21, OKST 6 -0.34 83.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.34 - 1.68 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 15 (16.68)

Score Difference (End): 15 (16.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.4%

Win Probability (After): 83.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:02 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 7 at BAY 30) Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 6 yds to the Bayl 36 - BAY 21, OKST 6 -0.54 83.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 64

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.71 - 1.25 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 15 (16.25)

Score Difference (End): 15 (15.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.2%

Win Probability (After): 83.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:29 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 1 at BAY 36) Blake Shapen pass incomplete - BAY 21, OKST 6 -3.74 84.5% -6.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 36

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.83 - 0.91 = -3.74

Score Difference (Before): 15 (15.91)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-12.17)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.5%

Win Probability (After): 78.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:05 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at BAY 36) Dominic Richardson run for no gain to the Bayl 36 - BAY 21, OKST 6 -0.61 20.3% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 2.79 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-12.21)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-12.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.3%

Win Probability (After): 20.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:33 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 10 at BAY 36) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 9 yds to the Bayl 27 - BAY 21, OKST 6 0.97 18.9% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 27

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.22 - 2.25 = 0.97

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-12.75)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-11.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.9%

Win Probability (After): 20.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:26 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 1 at BAY 27) Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 6 0.43 22.5% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 25

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.80 - 3.36 = 0.43

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-11.64)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-11.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.5%

Win Probability (After): 22.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:20 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at BAY 25) Dominic Richardson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 30 - BAY 21, OKST 6 -1.77 23.1% -4.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 30

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - 3.79 = -1.77

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-11.21)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-12.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.1%

Win Probability (After): 18.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:10 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 15 at BAY 30) Brennan Presley run for 4 yds to the Bayl 26 - BAY 21, OKST 6 -0.33 18.7% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 26

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.68 - 2.02 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-12.98)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-13.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.7%

Win Probability (After): 17.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:00 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 11 at BAY 26) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 11 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 6 3.11 16.6% 8.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 15

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.71 - 1.60 = 3.11

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-13.40)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-10.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.6%

Win Probability (After): 24.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:50 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at BAY 15) Spencer Sanders run for 11 yds to the Bayl 4 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 6 1.10 23.9% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 4

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.80 - 4.69 = 1.10

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-10.31)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-9.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.9%

Win Probability (After): 25.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:30 ESPN team id 197 (1st & Goal at BAY 4) OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Josh Sills) to the Bayl 19 - BAY 21, OKST 6 -2.06 25.1% -2.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 19

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.71 - 5.76 = -2.06

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-9.24)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-11.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.1%

Win Probability (After): 22.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:13 ESPN team id 197 (1st & Goal at BAY 19) BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Al Walcott) to the Bayl 4 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 6 1.72 22.9% 2.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 4

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.76 - 4.04 = 1.72

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-10.96)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-9.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.9%

Win Probability (After): 25.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:09 ESPN team id 197 (1st & Goal at BAY 4) Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Tanner Brown KICK) - BAY 21, OKST 13 1.22 24.4% 7.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.78 = 1.22

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-9.22)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.4%

Win Probability (After): 32.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:09 ESPN team id 239 (Kickoff at BAY 35) Tanner Brown kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 21, OKST 13 0.00 67.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.59 - 1.59 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.59)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.1%

Win Probability (After): 67.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:58 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 25) Blake Shapen run for 28 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 13 1.62 67.0% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 47

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 1.57 = 1.62

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.57)

Score Difference (End): 8 (11.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.0%

Win Probability (After): 69.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:40 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at OKST 47) Abram Smith run for 9 yds to the OKSt 38 - BAY 21, OKST 13 0.71 72.5% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 38

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.86 - 3.15 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 8 (11.15)

Score Difference (End): 8 (11.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.5%

Win Probability (After): 72.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:55 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 1 at OKST 38) Abram Smith run for no gain to the OKSt 38 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -0.67 73.4% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 38

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.15 - 3.83 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 8 (11.83)

Score Difference (End): 8 (11.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.4%

Win Probability (After): 72.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:20 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 1 at OKST 38) Dillon Doyle run for 2 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 13 0.57 73.1% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 36

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.72 - 3.15 = 0.57

Score Difference (Before): 8 (11.15)

Score Difference (End): 8 (11.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.1%

Win Probability (After): 73.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:47 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at OKST 36) Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the OKSt 34 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -0.47 76.6% -3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 34

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.24 - 3.71 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 8 (11.71)

Score Difference (End): 8 (11.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.6%

Win Probability (After): 73.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:40 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 8 at OKST 34) Tyquan Thornton sacked by Jason Taylor II for a loss of 11 yards to the OKSt 45 BAYLOR Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Tyquan Thornton) to the OKSt 45 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -2.33 74.3% -5.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 45

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - 3.23 = -2.33

Score Difference (Before): 8 (11.24)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.3%

Win Probability (After): 68.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:00 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 19 at OKST 45) Abram Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 48 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -1.71 67.7% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 48

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.76 - 0.95 = -1.71

Score Difference (Before): 8 (8.95)

Score Difference (End): 8 (7.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.7%

Win Probability (After): 66.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:29 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 22 at OKST 48) Issac Power punt for 48 yds for a touchback - BAY 21, OKST 13 0.89 67.4% 0.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 80

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.15 - -0.74 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): 8 (7.26)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.15)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.4%

Win Probability (After): 67.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:22 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 20) OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Joe Michalski) to the OKSt 10 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -0.99 30.8% -1.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 90

Started Drive at: OKST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.15 - -0.17 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-8.17)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-9.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:14 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 20 at OKST 10) Dezmon Jackson run for no gain to the OKSt 10 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -0.68 29.1% -3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90

Started Drive at: OKST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.80 - -1.13 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-9.13)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-9.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.1%

Win Probability (After): 25.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:44 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 20 at OKST 10) BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Holding (Kalon Barnes) to the OKSt 20 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 13 1.64 25.3% 4.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 80

Started Drive at: OKST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.15 - -1.79 = 1.64

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-9.79)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.3%

Win Probability (After): 30.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:38 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 20) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 4 yds to the OKSt 24 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -0.20 30.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 76

Started Drive at: OKST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.34 - -0.14 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-8.14)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.4%

Win Probability (After): 30.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:01 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 6 at OKST 24) Dezmon Jackson run for 3 yds to the OKSt 27 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -0.34 29.3% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 73

Started Drive at: OKST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.61 - -0.27 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-8.27)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.3%

Win Probability (After): 29.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:44 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 3 at OKST 27) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 8 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 13 1.69 27.4% 3.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 65

Started Drive at: OKST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.18 - -0.51 = 1.69

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-8.51)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-6.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.4%

Win Probability (After): 30.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:24 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 35) Spencer Sanders pass intercepted Brayden Utley return for 15 yds to the OKSt 22 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -5.92 28.9% -10.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 22

Started Drive at: OKST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.66 - 1.26 = -5.92

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.74)

Score Difference (End): 8 (12.66)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.9%

Win Probability (After): 18.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:20 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at OKST 22) Abram Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 24 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -1.28 81.5% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 24

Started Drive at: OKST 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.39 - 4.67 = -1.28

Score Difference (Before): 8 (12.67)

Score Difference (End): 8 (11.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.5%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:36 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 12 at OKST 24) Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 5 yds to the OKSt 19 - BAY 21, OKST 13 0.10 79.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 19

Started Drive at: OKST 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.48 - 3.38 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): 8 (11.38)

Score Difference (End): 8 (11.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.6%

Win Probability (After): 79.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:01 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 7 at OKST 19) Blake Shapen pass complete to Grant Miller for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 21 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -1.19 80.1% -3.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 21

Started Drive at: OKST 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.26 - 3.45 = -1.19

Score Difference (Before): 8 (11.45)

Score Difference (End): 8 (10.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.1%

Win Probability (After): 76.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:55 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 9 at OKST 21) Isaiah Hankins 39 yd FG MISSED - BAY 21, OKST 13 -2.34 74.9% -1.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 79

Started Drive at: OKST 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.11 - 2.22 = -2.34

Score Difference (Before): 8 (10.22)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.89)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.9%

Win Probability (After): 73.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:42 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 21) Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for no gain to the OKSt 21 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -0.60 26.5% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 79

Started Drive at: OKST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.47 - 0.13 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.87)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.5%

Win Probability (After): 25.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:46 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 10 at OKST 21) Spencer Sanders sacked by Terrel Bernard and Siaki Ika for a loss of 9 yards to the OKSt 12 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -1.60 23.8% -2.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 88

Started Drive at: OKST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.13 - -0.53 = -1.60

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-8.53)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-10.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.8%

Win Probability (After): 21.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:23 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 19 at OKST 12) Spencer Sanders run for 8 yds to the OKSt 20 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -0.57 17.6% -2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 80

Started Drive at: OKST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.74 - -2.17 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-10.17)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-10.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.6%

Win Probability (After): 14.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:47 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 11 at OKST 20) Tom Hutton punt for 45 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 30 Trestan Ebner fumbled, recovered by OKSt Korie Black - BAY 21, OKST 13 6.33 14.3% 20.1%

Play Type: Punt Team Fumble Recovery

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 30

Started Drive at: OKST 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.72 - -2.61 = 6.33

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-10.61)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-4.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.3%

Win Probability (After): 34.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 12:40 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at BAY 30) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dominic Richardson for no gain to the Bayl 30 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -0.65 34.2% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: BAY 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.09 - 3.74 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-4.26)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-4.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.2%

Win Probability (After): 32.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:48 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 10 at BAY 30) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dezmon Jackson for 5 yds to the Bayl 25 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -0.12 32.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 25

Started Drive at: BAY 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.03 - 3.15 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-4.85)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-4.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.8%

Win Probability (After): 32.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:21 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 5 at BAY 25) Brennan Presley pass complete to Spencer Sanders for 6 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 13 1.68 32.6% 4.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 19

Started Drive at: BAY 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.58 - 2.90 = 1.68

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.10)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-3.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.6%

Win Probability (After): 36.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:14 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at BAY 19) Spencer Sanders sacked by Chidi Ogbonnaya for a loss of 12 yards to the Bayl 31 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Bayl 31 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -2.37 38.2% -6.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 31

Started Drive at: BAY 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.20 - 4.60 = -2.37

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-3.42)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-5.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.2%

Win Probability (After): 31.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:02 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 22 at BAY 31) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 14 yds to the Bayl 17 - BAY 21, OKST 13 1.15 31.7% 2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 17

Started Drive at: BAY 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.54 - 2.39 = 1.15

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.61)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-4.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.7%

Win Probability (After): 34.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:39 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 8 at BAY 17) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dezmon Jackson for 16 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 13 2.86 33.6% 7.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 1

Started Drive at: BAY 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.42 - 3.56 = 2.86

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-4.44)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-1.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.6%

Win Probability (After): 41.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:05 ESPN team id 197 (1st & Goal at BAY 1) Dezmon Jackson run for no gain to the Bayl 1 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -0.25 40.9% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 1

Started Drive at: BAY 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.17 - 6.42 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-1.58)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-1.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.9%

Win Probability (After): 40.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:20 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & Goal at BAY 1) Dezmon Jackson run for no gain to the Bayl 1 - BAY 21, OKST 13 -0.29 40.0% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 1

Started Drive at: BAY 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.85 - 6.14 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-1.86)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-2.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.0%

Win Probability (After): 38.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:40 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & Goal at BAY 1) Dezmon Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 3 Dezmon Jackson fumbled, recovered by OKSt Brennan Presley - BAY 21, OKST 13 -2.98 38.3% -10.1%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 3

Started Drive at: BAY 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 5.79 = -2.98

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-2.21)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-5.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 13

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.3%

Win Probability (After): 28.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:17 ESPN team id 197 (4th & Goal at BAY 3) Tanner Brown 20 yd FG GOOD - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.24 25.8% 16.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 3

Started Drive at: BAY 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.76 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.24)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.8%

Win Probability (After): 42.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 13 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 8:17 ESPN team id 239 (Kickoff at BAY 35) Tanner Brown kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.00 72.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.11 - 1.11 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.11)

Score Difference (End): 5 (6.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.7%

Win Probability (After): 72.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:01 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 25) Blake Shapen pass complete to Drew Estrada for 8 yds to the Bayl 33 - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.41 73.1% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 1.15 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.15)

Score Difference (End): 5 (6.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.1%

Win Probability (After): 73.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:41 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 2 at BAY 33) Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.40 77.0% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 62

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.96 - 1.56 = 0.40

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.56)

Score Difference (End): 5 (6.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.0%

Win Probability (After): 78.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:50 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 38) Blake Shapen sacked by Brock Martin for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 32 - BAY 21, OKST 16 -1.45 78.4% -6.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 68

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 1.99 = -1.45

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.99)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.4%

Win Probability (After): 72.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:37 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 16 at BAY 32) Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the Bayl 35 - BAY 21, OKST 16 -0.32 75.1% -3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 65

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 0.52 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): 5 (5.52)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.1%

Win Probability (After): 71.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:15 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 13 at BAY 35) Blake Shapen sacked by Collin Oliver for a loss of 13 yards to the Bayl 22 Blake Shapen fumbled, forced by Collin Oliver, recovered by Bayl Abram Smith , return for 0 yards - BAY 21, OKST 16 -1.85 73.9% -9.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 78

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.67 - 0.18 = -1.85

Score Difference (Before): 5 (5.18)

Score Difference (End): 5 (3.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 5 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.9%

Win Probability (After): 64.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:27 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 26 at BAY 22) Issac Power punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 25 - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.41 68.2% 0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 75

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.01 - -1.42 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 5 (3.58)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-3.99)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 5 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.2%

Win Probability (After): 68.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:18 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 25) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete - BAY 21, OKST 16 -0.53 26.9% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 0.97 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.03)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-4.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 25.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:10 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 10 at OKST 25) Spencer Sanders run for 3 yds to the OKSt 28 - BAY 21, OKST 16 -0.65 26.3% -3.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 72

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.15 - 0.49 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.51)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.3%

Win Probability (After): 22.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:33 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 7 at OKST 28) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 3 yds to the OKSt 31 - BAY 21, OKST 16 -0.78 23.2% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 69

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.95 - -0.16 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-5.16)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.2%

Win Probability (After): 21.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:51 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 4 at OKST 31) Tom Hutton punt for 42 yds, downed at the Bayl 27 - BAY 21, OKST 16 -0.23 18.9% -0.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 73

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.14 - -0.92 = -0.23

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-5.92)

Score Difference (End): 5 (6.14)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.9%

Win Probability (After): 18.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 3:46 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 27) Abram Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 25 - BAY 21, OKST 16 -0.75 86.4% -5.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 75

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.31 - 1.06 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.06)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.4%

Win Probability (After): 81.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:45 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 12 at BAY 25) Timeout OKLAHOMA ST, clock 03:45 - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.00 81.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.31 - 0.31 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 5 (5.31)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.9%

Win Probability (After): 81.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:40 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 12 at BAY 25) Blake Shapen sacked by Brendon Evers for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 22 - BAY 21, OKST 16 -0.71 83.2% -5.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 78

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.43 - 0.28 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): 5 (5.28)

Score Difference (End): 5 (4.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.2%

Win Probability (After): 78.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:39 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 15 at BAY 22) Timeout OKLAHOMA ST, clock 03:39 - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.00 78.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.43 - -0.43 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 5 (4.57)

Score Difference (End): 5 (4.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.0%

Win Probability (After): 78.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:33 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 15 at BAY 22) Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 7 yds to the Bayl 29 - BAY 21, OKST 16 -0.58 79.2% -6.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 71

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.98 - -0.40 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 5 (4.60)

Score Difference (End): 5 (4.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.2%

Win Probability (After): 73.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:32 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 8 at BAY 29) Timeout OKLAHOMA ST, clock 03:32 - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.00 73.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.98 - -0.98 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 5 (4.02)

Score Difference (End): 5 (4.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.2%

Win Probability (After): 73.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 3:23 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 8 at BAY 29) Issac Power punt for 61 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 10 - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.84 74.5% 1.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 90

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.16 - -0.99 = 0.84

Score Difference (Before): 5 (4.01)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-4.84)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.5%

Win Probability (After): 76.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 3:14 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 10) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dezmon Jackson for 10 yds to the OKSt 20 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.36 23.4% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 80

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.73 - 0.37 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.63)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-4.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.4%

Win Probability (After): 25.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:11 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 20) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Blaine Green - BAY 21, OKST 16 -0.40 24.6% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.42 - 0.81 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.19)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-4.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.6%

Win Probability (After): 22.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:00 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 10 at OKST 20) Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 10 yds to the OKSt 30 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.81 21.0% 5.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 70

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.19 - 0.37 = 0.81

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.63)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-3.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.0%

Win Probability (After): 26.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:52 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 30) Dezmon Jackson run for 10 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.58 25.6% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 60

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 1.25 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-3.75)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-3.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.6%

Win Probability (After): 26.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:42 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 40) Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 3 yds to the OKSt 43 - BAY 21, OKST 16 -0.34 26.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 57

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - 1.80 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-3.20)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-3.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.4%

Win Probability (After): 26.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:24 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 7 at OKST 43) Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 13 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.87 25.6% 3.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 44

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.36 - 1.49 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-3.51)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-2.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.6%

Win Probability (After): 29.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:15 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at BAY 44) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Blaine Green for 9 yds to the Bayl 35 - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.93 28.6% 6.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 35

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.27 - 2.34 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-2.66)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-1.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.6%

Win Probability (After): 34.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:05 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 1 at BAY 35) Spencer Sanders run for 5 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.08 33.6% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 30

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.29 - 3.21 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-1.79)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-1.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.6%

Win Probability (After): 35.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:56 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at BAY 30) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Blaine Green for 6 yds to the Bayl 24 - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.50 33.7% 5.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 24

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.75 - 3.25 = 0.50

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-1.75)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-1.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.7%

Win Probability (After): 39.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:51 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 4 at BAY 24) Dezmon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 21 - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.09 35.9% 4.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 21

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.69 - 3.60 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-1.40)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-1.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.9%

Win Probability (After): 40.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:50 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 1 at BAY 21) Timeout BAYLOR, clock 01:50 - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.00 37.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.69 - 3.69 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-1.31)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-1.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.3%

Win Probability (After): 37.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:45 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 1 at BAY 21) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 8 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.84 37.9% 9.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 13

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.36 - 3.51 = 0.84

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-1.49)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-0.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.9%

Win Probability (After): 47.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:40 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at BAY 13) Dezmon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Bayl 10 - BAY 21, OKST 16 -0.12 48.9% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 10

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.26 - 4.37 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-0.63)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-0.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.9%

Win Probability (After): 47.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:37 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 7 at BAY 10) Timeout BAYLOR, clock 01:37 - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.00 48.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.26 - 4.26 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-0.74)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-0.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.7%

Win Probability (After): 48.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:33 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 7 at BAY 10) Dezmon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Bayl 6 - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.05 49.1% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 6

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.32 - 4.26 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-0.74)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-0.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.1%

Win Probability (After): 48.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:31 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 3 at BAY 6) Timeout BAYLOR, clock 01:31 - BAY 21, OKST 16 0.00 48.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.32 - 4.32 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-0.68)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-0.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.7%

Win Probability (After): 48.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:27 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 3 at BAY 6) BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Mark Milton) to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, OKST 16 1.71 48.3% 22.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 2

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.98 - 4.26 = 1.71

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-0.74)

Score Difference (End): -5 (0.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.3%

Win Probability (After): 70.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:19 ESPN team id 197 (1st & Goal at BAY 2) Dezmon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Bayl 1 - BAY 21, OKST 16 -0.12 71.4% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 1

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.84 - 5.97 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): -5 (0.97)

Score Difference (End): -5 (0.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.4%

Win Probability (After): 69.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:53 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & Goal at BAY 1) Dezmon Jackson run for no gain to the Bayl 1 - BAY 21, OKST 16 -0.35 69.8% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 1

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.50 - 5.85 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): -5 (0.85)

Score Difference (End): -5 (0.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.8%

Win Probability (After): 67.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:30 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & Goal at BAY 1) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tyler Lacy - BAY 21, OKST 16 -0.96 68.7% -17.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 1

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.56 - 5.52 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): -5 (0.52)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-0.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.7%

Win Probability (After): 50.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:24 ESPN team id 197 (4th & Goal at BAY 1) Dezmon Jackson run for no gain to the Bayl 1 - BAY 21, OKST 16 -4.50 46.9% -43.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: OKST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 4.49 = -4.50

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-0.51)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.01)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 17 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.9%

Win Probability (After): 3.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:15 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 1) Blake Shapen run for no gain to the Bayl 1 - BAY 21, OKST 16 -0.08 91.2% 8.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 99 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.11 - -0.03 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): 5 (4.97)

Score Difference (End): 5 (4.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, OKST 16

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.2%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3