Memphis 7 @ UCF 24

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 2.80 | Odds: UCF -1, O/U 63.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 235 ESPN team id 2116
Total Plays 8973
Total EPA -19.72-2.8
  Offensive EPA -19.18-3.33
  Special Teams EPA -2.782.11
  Penalty EPA -4.34-0.96
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 6.58-0.62
Production ESPN team id 235 ESPN team id 2116
Scrimmage Plays 7962
  Yards 409295
  Yards/Play 5.184.76
  EPA -19.18-3.33
  EPA/Play -0.24-0.05
Passes 54 (68%)22 (35%)
  Yards 21580
  Yards/Play 3.983.64
  EPA -26.82-3.72
  EPA/Play -0.50-0.17
Rushes 25 (32%)40 (65%)
  Yards 116218
  Yards/Play 4.645.45
  EPA 7.640.39
  EPA/Play 0.310.01
Rushing ESPN team id 235 ESPN team id 2116
Scrimmage Plays 7962
Rushes 25 (32%)40 (65%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 2 (8%)1 (2%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 1 (50%)1 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 4 (16%)7 (18%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 11 (44%)16 (40%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 13 (52%)23 (57%)
OL Line Yards 43.174.9
  Per Carry 1.721.87
Highlight Yards 3371.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 2.543.11
Explosiveness ESPN team id 235 ESPN team id 2116
Total Plays 8973
Scrimmage Plays 7962
Explosive Plays 7 (9%)2 (3%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 1 (2%)1 (5%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 6 (24%)1 (2%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -36.96-9.15
  EPA/Play -0.51-0.15
  When Passing -29.83-6.14
    EPA/Play -0.55-0.28
  When Rushing -7.13-3.00
    EPA/Play -0.38-0.08
Situational ESPN team id 235 ESPN team id 2116
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 32 (41%)26 (42%)
  When Passing 20 (37%)7 (32%)
  When Rushing 12 (48%)19 (48%)
  On Standard Downs 23 (46%)20 (47%)
  On Passing Downs 9 (31%)6 (32%)
  On Early Downs 25 (42%)23 (46%)
  On Late Downs 7 (37%)3 (25%)
  During "Middle 8" 2 (15%)5 (42%)
Early Downs 6050
  First Downs Created 14 (23%)11 (22%)
  EPA -17.855.07
  EPA/Play -0.300.10
  Passes 44 (73%)13 (26%)
  Rushes 16 (27%)37 (74%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 19 (43%)5 (38%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 6 (38%)18 (49%)
"Middle 8" Plays 1312
  EPA -6.71-0.76
  EPA/play -0.52-0.06
  Passes 9 (69%)5 (42%)
  Rushes 4 (31%)7 (58%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 1 (11%)2 (40%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 1 (25%)3 (43%)
Drives ESPN team id 235 ESPN team id 2116
Total 1314
Avg Starting Field Position Own 25Own 33
Plays/Drive 8.655.48
Yards/Drive 40.7028.87
Available Yards % 54%43%
Defensive ESPN team id 235 ESPN team id 2116
Scrimmage Plays 6279
Stop Rate 40%66%
Havoc Plays Created 8 (13%)13 (16%)
  Passing 3 (14%)10 (19%)
  Rushing 5 (13%)3 (12%)
TFLs Generated 710
  Passing 27
  Rushing 53
Sacks Generated 1 (5%)6 (11%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 13
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 235 ESPN team id 2116
Turnovers 51
  Fumbles 30
  Fumbles Lost 20
  Fumbles Recovered 10
  Interceptions 31
Turnover Margin -44
Expected Turnovers 2.21.7
Expected Turnover Margin -0.40.4
Turnover Luck (pts) -17.817.8
Special Teams ESPN team id 235 ESPN team id 2116
Total Plays 10 11
Total EPA -2.78 2.11
  Field Goal EPA 0 -2.39
  Punting EPA -2.56 3.79
  Kickoff Return EPA -0.22 0.7

Memphis [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Peter Parrish 31/48, 215 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT, 6 Scks, 25.4 xQBR 3.98 -0.50 -26.82 37% -39.0%
Rush attempts
Peter Parrish 16 carries, 99 yds, 0 TD, 3 Fum (2 lost) 6.19 0.53 8.48 62% 20.0%
Brandon Thomas 5 carries, 19 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.80 0.17 0.83 40% 8.0%
TEAM 1 carry, -5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -5.00 -0.05 -0.05 0% -2.0%
Kylan Watkins 1 carry, -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.00 -0.78 -0.78 0% -3.0%
Gabriel Rogers 2 carries, 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.42 -0.84 0% -2.0%
Pass targets
Roc Taylor 3 catches (3 targets), 28 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.33 1.10 3.29 100% 4.0%
Koby Drake 1 catch (1 target), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.79 0.79 100% 2.0%
Asa Martin 3 catches (3 targets), 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.67 0.21 0.63 67% 0.0%
Brandon Thomas 3 catches (3 targets), 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.33 0.19 0.57 67% 3.0%
Marquavius Weaver 2 catches (2 targets), 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 0.18 0.36 50% 0.0%
Marcayll Jones 1 catch (3 targets), 24 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 24.00 0.08 0.25 33% -2.0%
Kylan Watkins 1 catch (1 target), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0.0%
Eddie Lewis 1 catch (2 targets), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 -0.20 -0.41 50% 0.0%
Gabriel Rogers 3 catches (4 targets), 29 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.67 -0.11 -0.43 50% -3.0%
Sean Dykes 1 catch (3 targets), 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.00 -0.36 -1.08 33% -4.0%
Javon Ivory 5 catches (6 targets), 19 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.80 -0.22 -1.33 33% -8.0%
Calvin Austin III 7 catches (12 targets), 44 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.29 -0.34 -4.11 33% -9.0%
Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Joey Gatewood 2/2, 17 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 82.1 xQBR 8.50 0.72 1.44 50% 7.0%
Mikey Keene 11/19, 63 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 Sck, 53.3 xQBR 3.15 -0.26 -5.16 30% 0.0%
Rush attempts
Ryan O'Keefe 3 carries, 41 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.67 0.96 2.88 67% 11.0%
Mikey Keene 1 carry, 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.72 0.72 100% 2.0%
TEAM 1 carry, -2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -2.00 0.04 0.04 100% 0.0%
Joey Gatewood 2 carries, 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.50 -0.05 -0.11 50% 0.0%
Johnny Richardson 6 carries, 47 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.83 -0.02 -0.11 50% 0.0%
Mark-Antony Richards 1 carry, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.34 -0.34 0% 0.0%
Isaiah Bowser 26 carries, 111 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.27 -0.10 -2.69 42% -2.0%
Pass targets
Brandon Johnson 3 catches (5 targets), 25 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.33 0.82 4.09 60% 17.0%
Ryan O'Keefe 6 catches (7 targets), 41 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.83 0.15 1.04 43% 3.0%
Isaiah Bowser 2 catches (2 targets), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.08 0.17 50% 0.0%
Amari Johnson 1 catch (1 target), 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.39 -0.39 0% -1.0%
Titus Mokiao-Atimalala 1 catch (1 target), 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.74 -0.74 0% -1.0%
Charlie Browder 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.38 -1.38 0% -1.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 7:07 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & Goal at UCF 13) Peter Parrish pass intercepted Divaad Wilson return for 25 yds to the UCF 25 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -5.50 1.8% -0.8%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 75

Started Drive at: MEM 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.90 - 3.60 = -5.50

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-13.40)

Score Difference (End): 17 (18.90)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 87 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.8%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:16 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 5 at UCF 25) Andrew Osteen punt for 48 yds , Calvin Austin III returns for no gain to the Memph 27 Calvin Austin III fumbled, recovered by UCF Alex Ward - MEM 0, UCF 7 5.35 65.2% 10.0%

Play Type: Punt Team Fumble Recovery

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 27

Started Drive at: UCF 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.74 - -0.61 = 5.35

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.39)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.2%

Win Probability (After): 75.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:29 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at UCF 27) Peter Parrish pass intercepted Dyllon Lester return for 34 yds to the UCF 0 UCF Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the UCF 19 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -5.12 1.3% -1.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 81

Started Drive at: MEM 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.26 - 3.79 = -5.12

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-13.14)

Score Difference (End): 17 (18.26)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:49 ESPN team id 235 (3rd & 17 at UCF 38) Peter Parrish run for 19 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST down - MEM 0, UCF 7 4.01 32.7% 11.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 19

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.44 - 0.42 = 4.01

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.58)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.7%

Win Probability (After): 44.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:39 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 5 at MEM 30) Peter Parrish pass intercepted Davonte Brown return for 14 yds to the Memph 44 UCF Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Memph 45 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -3.59 2.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 45

Started Drive at: MEM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.96 - -0.39 = -3.59

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.37)

Score Difference (End): 17 (20.96)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:59 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 11 at MEM 31) Ryan O'Keefe run for 31 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) - MEM 7, UCF 21 3.39 81.8% 9.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 99

Started Drive at: UCF 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.61 = 3.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.61)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.8%

Win Probability (After): 91.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:41 ESPN team id 235 (4th & 3 at UCF 36) Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Javon Ivory - MEM 7, UCF 14 -3.07 26.0% -4.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 64

Started Drive at: MEM 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.87 - 0.20 = -3.07

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.80)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.87)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.0%

Win Probability (After): 21.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:00 ESPN team id 235 (4th & 3 at UCF 20) Peter Parrish pass complete to Javon Ivory for 5 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 24 3.01 2.1% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 15

Started Drive at: MEM 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.60 - 1.59 = 3.01

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-15.41)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-12.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.1%

Win Probability (After): 2.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:23 ESPN team id 235 (4th & 8 at UCF 12) Peter Parrish run for 7 yds to the UCF 5 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -2.72 0.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 95

Started Drive at: MEM 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.62 - 2.10 = -2.72

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-14.90)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.62)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:09 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 7 at MEM 25) Daniel Obarski 42 yd FG MISSED - MEM 7, UCF 14 -2.48 78.6% -9.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 75

Started Drive at: MEM 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - 2.38 = -2.48

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.38)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.90)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.6%

Win Probability (After): 69.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 10:12 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 9 at MEM 11) Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 11 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) - MEM 0, UCF 7 2.42 53.6% 13.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 99

Started Drive at: UCF 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.58 = 2.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.58)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.6%

Win Probability (After): 67.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:49 ESPN team id 235 (3rd & 17 at UCF 38) Peter Parrish run for 19 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST down - MEM 0, UCF 7 4.01 32.7% 11.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 19

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.44 - 0.42 = 4.01

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.58)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.7%

Win Probability (After): 44.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:16 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 5 at UCF 25) Andrew Osteen punt for 48 yds , Calvin Austin III returns for no gain to the Memph 27 Calvin Austin III fumbled, recovered by UCF Alex Ward - MEM 0, UCF 7 5.35 65.2% 10.0%

Play Type: Punt Team Fumble Recovery

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 27

Started Drive at: UCF 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.74 - -0.61 = 5.35

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.39)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.2%

Win Probability (After): 75.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 4:59 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 11 at MEM 31) Ryan O'Keefe run for 31 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) - MEM 7, UCF 21 3.39 81.8% 9.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 99

Started Drive at: UCF 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.61 = 3.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.61)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.8%

Win Probability (After): 91.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:09 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 7 at MEM 25) Daniel Obarski 42 yd FG MISSED - MEM 7, UCF 14 -2.48 78.6% -9.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 75

Started Drive at: MEM 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - 2.38 = -2.48

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.38)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.90)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.6%

Win Probability (After): 69.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q2 11:07 ESPN team id 235 (1st & Goal at UCF 9) Brandon Thomas run for 9 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK) - MEM 7, UCF 14 2.03 23.0% 8.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: MEM 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.97 = 2.03

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.03)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.0%

Win Probability (After): 31.1%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:51 ESPN team id 235 (4th & 1 at MEM 39) Peter Parrish run for no gain to the Memph 39 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 14 -2.40 28.4% -7.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 39

Started Drive at: MEM 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.21 - 0.19 = -2.40

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.81)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.21)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.4%

Win Probability (After): 21.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:02 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 6 at MEM 13) Joey Gatewood pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 13 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) - MEM 0, UCF 14 1.98 74.7% 6.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: MEM 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.02 = 1.98

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.02)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.7%

Win Probability (After): 81.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:50 ESPN team id 235 (3rd & 13 at UCF 22) Peter Parrish sacked by Davonte Brown and Tre'mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 31 - MEM 0, UCF 7 -2.15 37.8% -6.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 31

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.37 - 2.52 = -2.15

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.48)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.8%

Win Probability (After): 31.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:39 ESPN team id 235 (3rd & 8 at 50) Peter Parrish run for 9 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST down - MEM 0, UCF 7 2.29 34.8% 4.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 41

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.67 - 0.38 = 2.29

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.62)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.8%

Win Probability (After): 39.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 10:12 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 9 at MEM 11) Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 11 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) - MEM 0, UCF 7 2.42 53.6% 13.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 99

Started Drive at: UCF 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.58 = 2.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.58)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.6%

Win Probability (After): 67.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:02 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 6 at MEM 13) Joey Gatewood pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 13 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) - MEM 0, UCF 14 1.98 74.7% 6.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: MEM 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.02 = 1.98

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.02)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.7%

Win Probability (After): 81.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:07 ESPN team id 235 (1st & Goal at UCF 9) Brandon Thomas run for 9 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK) - MEM 7, UCF 14 2.03 23.0% 8.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: MEM 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.97 = 2.03

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.03)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.0%

Win Probability (After): 31.1%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:59 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 11 at MEM 31) Ryan O'Keefe run for 31 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) - MEM 7, UCF 21 3.39 81.8% 9.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 99

Started Drive at: UCF 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.61 = 3.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.61)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.8%

Win Probability (After): 91.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:09 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 6 at MEM 7) Daniel Obarski 24 yd FG GOOD - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.09 96.0% 2.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 7

Started Drive at: UCF 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.91 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.91)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.0%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2116 (Kickoff at UCF 35) Noah Grant kickoff for 60 yds , Johnny Richardson return for 27 yds to the UCF 32 - MEM 0, UCF 0 0.70 45.3% 0.8%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 68

Started Drive at: UCF 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 0.86 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.3%

Win Probability (After): 46.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:47 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 32) Johnny Richardson run for 12 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST down - MEM 0, UCF 0 0.52 47.3% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 56

Started Drive at: UCF 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 1.83 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.83)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.3%

Win Probability (After): 49.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:15 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 44) Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the Memph 49 - MEM 0, UCF 0 0.60 50.2% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 49

Started Drive at: UCF 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.08 - 2.48 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.48)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.2%

Win Probability (After): 51.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:42 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 3 at MEM 49) Ryan O'Keefe run for 8 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST down - MEM 0, UCF 0 0.50 51.2% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 41

Started Drive at: UCF 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.50 - 2.99 = 0.50

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.99)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.2%

Win Probability (After): 52.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:10 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at MEM 41) Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Memph 39 - MEM 0, UCF 0 -0.52 52.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 39

Started Drive at: UCF 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.97 - 3.49 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.1%

Win Probability (After): 51.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:30 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 8 at MEM 39) Mikey Keene pass complete to Amari Johnson for 3 yds to the Memph 36 - MEM 0, UCF 0 -0.39 51.4% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 36

Started Drive at: UCF 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 2.98 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.4%

Win Probability (After): 49.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:01 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 5 at MEM 36) Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 8 yds to the Memph 28 for a 1ST down - MEM 0, UCF 0 1.71 50.2% 2.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 28

Started Drive at: UCF 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.31 - 2.60 = 1.71

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.60)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.2%

Win Probability (After): 53.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:26 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at MEM 28) Isaiah Bowser run for 16 yds to the Memph 12 for a 1ST down - MEM 0, UCF 0 0.79 53.1% 1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 12

Started Drive at: UCF 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.07 - 4.28 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.1%

Win Probability (After): 54.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:53 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at MEM 12) Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Memph 11 - MEM 0, UCF 0 -0.54 54.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 11

Started Drive at: UCF 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.53 - 5.07 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.6%

Win Probability (After): 54.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:12 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 9 at MEM 11) Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 11 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) - MEM 0, UCF 7 2.42 53.6% 13.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 99

Started Drive at: UCF 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.58 = 2.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.58)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.6%

Win Probability (After): 67.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:12 ESPN team id 235 (Kickoff at MEM 35) Daniel Obarski kickoff for 62 yds , Gabriel Rogers return for 21 yds to the Memph 24 - MEM 0, UCF 7 -0.11 33.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 76

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.25 - -0.15 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.15)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.5%

Win Probability (After): 33.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:00 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 24) Brandon Thomas run for 5 yds to the Memph 29 - MEM 0, UCF 7 0.23 33.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 71

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - -0.29 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.29)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.4%

Win Probability (After): 33.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:41 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 5 at MEM 29) Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Calvin Austin III - MEM 0, UCF 7 -1.21 34.3% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.04 - 0.17 = -1.21

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.83)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.3%

Win Probability (After): 32.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:36 ESPN team id 235 (3rd & 5 at MEM 29) Peter Parrish pass complete to Javon Ivory for 4 yds to the Memph 33 - MEM 0, UCF 7 -0.37 32.4% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 67

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.23 - -0.86 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.86)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.4%

Win Probability (After): 31.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:15 ESPN team id 235 (4th & 1 at MEM 33) Peter Parrish run for 4 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST down - MEM 0, UCF 7 2.39 32.9% 2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 63

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - -1.31 = 2.39

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.31)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.9%

Win Probability (After): 35.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:49 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 37) Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Memph 39 - MEM 0, UCF 7 -0.48 35.5% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 61

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.57 - 1.05 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.95)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.5%

Win Probability (After): 36.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:21 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 8 at MEM 39) Peter Parrish pass complete to Brandon Thomas for 9 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST down - MEM 0, UCF 7 1.34 34.5% 3.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 52

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.84 - 0.50 = 1.34

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.50)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.5%

Win Probability (After): 38.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:08 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 48) Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Eddie Lewis - MEM 0, UCF 7 -0.57 37.7% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 1.79 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.21)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.7%

Win Probability (After): 35.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:01 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 10 at MEM 48) Peter Parrish run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line - MEM 0, UCF 7 -0.82 35.7% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 50

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.37 - 1.19 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.81)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.7%

Win Probability (After): 34.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:39 ESPN team id 235 (3rd & 8 at 50) Peter Parrish run for 9 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST down - MEM 0, UCF 7 2.29 34.8% 4.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 41

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.67 - 0.38 = 2.29

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.62)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.8%

Win Probability (After): 39.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:13 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at UCF 41) Parrish, Peter pass incomplete to Dykes, Sean, PENALTY UCF holding (Bethune, Tatum) 10 yards to the UCF31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS. - MEM 0, UCF 7 0.76 39.5% 2.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 31

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.46 - 2.69 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.31)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.5%

Win Probability (After): 42.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:05 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at UCF 31) Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the UCF 30 - MEM 0, UCF 7 -0.62 41.8% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 30

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.86 - 3.49 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.51)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.8%

Win Probability (After): 39.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:55 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 9 at UCF 30) MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Matt Dale) to the UCF 35 - MEM 0, UCF 7 -1.04 39.6% -2.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 35

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - 2.85 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.15)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.6%

Win Probability (After): 37.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:25 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 14 at UCF 35) Peter Parrish sacked by Landon Woodson for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 38 - MEM 0, UCF 7 -1.34 37.6% -4.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 38

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 1.78 = -1.34

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.22)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.6%

Win Probability (After): 33.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:49 ESPN team id 235 (3rd & 17 at UCF 38) Peter Parrish run for 19 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST down - MEM 0, UCF 7 4.01 32.7% 11.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 19

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.44 - 0.42 = 4.01

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.58)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.7%

Win Probability (After): 44.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:34 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at UCF 19) MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Isaac Ellis) to the UCF 24 - MEM 0, UCF 7 -1.06 43.8% -4.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 24

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.38 - 4.43 = -1.06

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.57)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.8%

Win Probability (After): 39.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:50 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 15 at UCF 24) Peter Parrish run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 30 Peter Parrish fumbled, recovered by Memph Peter Parrish - MEM 0, UCF 7 -1.18 39.4% -2.0%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 30

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.20 - 3.37 = -1.18

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.63)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.4%

Win Probability (After): 37.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:17 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 21 at UCF 30) Peter Parrish pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 8 yds to the UCF 22 - MEM 0, UCF 7 0.33 36.8% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 22

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.53 - 2.20 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.80)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.8%

Win Probability (After): 37.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:50 ESPN team id 235 (3rd & 13 at UCF 22) Peter Parrish sacked by Davonte Brown and Tre'mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 31 - MEM 0, UCF 7 -2.15 37.8% -6.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 31

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.37 - 2.52 = -2.15

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.48)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.8%

Win Probability (After): 31.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:51 ESPN team id 235 (4th & 22 at UCF 31) Joe Doyle punt for 31 yds for a touchback - MEM 0, UCF 7 -2.35 32.2% -2.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 80

Started Drive at: MEM 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.98 - 0.37 = -2.35

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.63)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.98)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.2%

Win Probability (After): 29.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:41 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 20) Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the UCF 24 - MEM 0, UCF 7 -0.21 70.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 76

Started Drive at: UCF 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.80 - 2.01 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.01)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.8%

Win Probability (After): 70.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:01 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 6 at UCF 24) Mikey Keene pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 1 yd to the UCF 25 - MEM 0, UCF 7 -0.74 70.5% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 75

Started Drive at: UCF 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.06 - 1.80 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.80)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.5%

Win Probability (After): 69.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:27 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 5 at UCF 25) Mikey Keene pass incomplete - MEM 0, UCF 7 -1.71 68.8% -3.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: UCF 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.62 - 1.09 = -1.71

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.09)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.8%

Win Probability (After): 65.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:16 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 5 at UCF 25) Andrew Osteen punt for 48 yds , Calvin Austin III returns for no gain to the Memph 27 Calvin Austin III fumbled, recovered by UCF Alex Ward - MEM 0, UCF 7 5.35 65.2% 10.0%

Play Type: Punt Team Fumble Recovery

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 27

Started Drive at: UCF 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.74 - -0.61 = 5.35

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.39)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.2%

Win Probability (After): 75.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 1:09 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at MEM 27) Isaiah Bowser run for 10 yds to the Memph 17 for a 1ST down - MEM 0, UCF 7 0.58 75.1% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 17

Started Drive at: MEM 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.31 - 4.74 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.74)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.1%

Win Probability (After): 76.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:32 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at MEM 17) Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Memph 13 - MEM 0, UCF 7 -0.27 75.7% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 13

Started Drive at: MEM 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.04 - 5.31 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.31)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.7%

Win Probability (After): 76.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:02 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 6 at MEM 13) Joey Gatewood pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 13 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) - MEM 0, UCF 14 1.98 74.7% 6.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: MEM 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.02 = 1.98

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.02)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.7%

Win Probability (After): 81.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:02 ESPN team id 235 (Kickoff at MEM 35) Daniel Obarski kickoff for 64 yds , Gabriel Rogers return for 21 yds to the Memph 22 - MEM 0, UCF 14 -0.11 16.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 78

Started Drive at: MEM 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.52 - -0.41 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.41)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.2%

Win Probability (After): 16.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:52 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 22) Peter Parrish pass complete to Sean Dykes for 11 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST down - MEM 0, UCF 14 0.91 15.9% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 67

Started Drive at: MEM 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.39 - -0.52 = 0.91

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.52)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.9%

Win Probability (After): 16.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:22 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 33) Peter Parrish run for 8 yds to the Memph 41 - MEM 0, UCF 14 0.77 16.7% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 59

Started Drive at: MEM 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 0.33 = 0.77

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.67)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.7%

Win Probability (After): 17.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:45 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 2 at MEM 41) Peter Parrish pass complete to Brandon Thomas for 2 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST down - MEM 0, UCF 14 0.05 18.0% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 57

Started Drive at: MEM 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.06 - 1.01 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.99)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.0%

Win Probability (After): 17.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:10 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 43) Peter Parrish pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 2 yds to the Memph 45 - MEM 0, UCF 14 -0.53 17.9% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 55

Started Drive at: MEM 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.50 - 1.03 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.97)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.9%

Win Probability (After): 17.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:00 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 8 at MEM 45) Peter Parrish run for 16 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST down - MEM 0, UCF 14 2.12 17.1% 4.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 39

Started Drive at: MEM 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.61 - 0.49 = 2.12

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.51)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.1%

Win Probability (After): 21.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:20 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at UCF 39) Peter Parrish pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 5 yds to the UCF 34 - MEM 0, UCF 14 0.16 19.7% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 34

Started Drive at: MEM 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 2.64 = 0.16

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.36)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.7%

Win Probability (After): 21.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:45 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 5 at UCF 34) Peter Parrish pass complete to Koby Drake for 7 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST down - MEM 0, UCF 14 0.79 19.8% 1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 27

Started Drive at: MEM 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 2.82 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.18)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.8%

Win Probability (After): 21.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:30 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at UCF 27) Peter Parrish pass complete to Roc Taylor for 9 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste) to the UCF 9 for a 1ST down - MEM 0, UCF 14 1.39 21.2% 2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 9

Started Drive at: MEM 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.00 - 3.61 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.39)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 0, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.2%

Win Probability (After): 23.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:07 ESPN team id 235 (1st & Goal at UCF 9) Brandon Thomas run for 9 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK) - MEM 7, UCF 14 2.03 23.0% 8.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: MEM 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.97 = 2.03

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.03)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.0%

Win Probability (After): 31.1%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:07 ESPN team id 2116 (Kickoff at UCF 35) Noah Grant kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MEM 7, UCF 14 0.00 73.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UCF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.04 - 2.04 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.04)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.8%

Win Probability (After): 73.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:01 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 25) Isaiah Bowser run for 10 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 14 0.73 73.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65

Started Drive at: UCF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.77 - 2.04 = 0.73

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.04)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.8%

Win Probability (After): 73.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:34 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 35) Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the UCF 40 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.02 73.9% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 60

Started Drive at: UCF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.76 - 2.77 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.77)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.9%

Win Probability (After): 75.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:58 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 5 at UCF 40) Joey Gatewood run for 1 yd to the UCF 41 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.59 74.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 59

Started Drive at: UCF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.10 - 2.68 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.68)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.7%

Win Probability (After): 74.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:12 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 4 at UCF 41) Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 38 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -1.58 73.2% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 62

Started Drive at: UCF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.09 - 1.67 = -1.58

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.67)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.2%

Win Probability (After): 70.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:45 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 7 at UCF 38) Andrew Osteen punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Calvin Austin III at the MEMPHIS 21 MEMPHIS Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (Greg Rubin) to the Memph 11 - MEM 7, UCF 14 0.14 70.2% 0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 89

Started Drive at: UCF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - -0.39 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.09)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.24)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.2%

Win Probability (After): 70.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 8:41 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 11) Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Calvin Austin III - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.62 29.1% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 89

Started Drive at: MEM 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.85 - -0.23 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.23)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.1%

Win Probability (After): 27.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:33 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 10 at MEM 11) Peter Parrish run for 1 yd to the Memph 12 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.74 27.9% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 88

Started Drive at: MEM 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.60 - -0.86 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.86)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.9%

Win Probability (After): 26.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:06 ESPN team id 235 (3rd & 9 at MEM 12) MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Matt Dale) to the Memph 7 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.64 27.1% -2.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 93

Started Drive at: MEM 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.26 - -1.61 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.61)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.1%

Win Probability (After): 24.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:35 ESPN team id 235 (3rd & 14 at MEM 7) Peter Parrish run for 4 yds to the Memph 11 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.37 25.4% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 89

Started Drive at: MEM 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.54 - -2.17 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.17)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.4%

Win Probability (After): 24.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:55 ESPN team id 235 (4th & 10 at MEM 11) Joe Doyle punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Titus Mokiao-Atimalala at the UCF 43 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.06 25.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 57

Started Drive at: MEM 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.58 - -2.51 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.51)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.58)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.1%

Win Probability (After): 25.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 6:49 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 43) Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Ryan O'Keefe - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.54 75.0% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: UCF 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.15 - 2.69 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.69)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.0%

Win Probability (After): 74.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:39 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 10 at UCF 43) Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the UCF 48 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.19 74.5% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 52

Started Drive at: UCF 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.91 - 2.10 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.10)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.5%

Win Probability (After): 73.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:00 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 5 at UCF 48) Mikey Keene sacked by Thomas Pickens for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 45 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -1.81 73.9% -3.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 55

Started Drive at: UCF 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - 1.62 = -1.81

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.62)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.9%

Win Probability (After): 70.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:29 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 8 at UCF 45) Andrew Osteen punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Calvin Austin III at the Memph 13 - MEM 7, UCF 14 0.39 71.9% -2.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 87

Started Drive at: UCF 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.09 - -0.30 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.70)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.09)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.9%

Win Probability (After): 69.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:20 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 13) Peter Parrish pass complete to Kylan Watkins for 5 yds to the Memph 18 - MEM 7, UCF 14 0.00 31.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 82

Started Drive at: MEM 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 0.02 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.98)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.0%

Win Probability (After): 30.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:02 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 5 at MEM 18) Peter Parrish pass complete to Javon Ivory for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 17 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.92 30.6% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 83

Started Drive at: MEM 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.73 - 0.19 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.81)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.6%

Win Probability (After): 28.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:40 ESPN team id 235 (3rd & 6 at MEM 17) Peter Parrish run for 8 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 14 1.38 28.9% 3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 75

Started Drive at: MEM 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.71 - -0.67 = 1.38

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.67)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.9%

Win Probability (After): 32.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:01 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 25) Kylan Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 24 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.78 32.6% -3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 76

Started Drive at: MEM 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.09 - 0.69 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.31)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.6%

Win Probability (After): 29.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:15 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 11 at MEM 24) Peter Parrish sacked by Cam Goode for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 21 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -1.04 29.5% -2.8%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 79

Started Drive at: MEM 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.83 - 0.21 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.79)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.5%

Win Probability (After): 26.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:32 ESPN team id 235 (3rd & 14 at MEM 21) Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Marcayll Jones - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.86 26.4% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 79

Started Drive at: MEM 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.34 - -0.48 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.48)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.4%

Win Probability (After): 24.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:21 ESPN team id 235 (4th & 14 at MEM 21) Joe Doyle punt for 50 yds, downed at the UCF 29 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.26 24.1% 1.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 71

Started Drive at: MEM 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.30 - -1.04 = -0.26

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.04)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.30)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.1%

Win Probability (After): 25.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:15 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 29) Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the UCF 29 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.43 74.1% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: UCF 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.97 - 1.40 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.40)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.1%

Win Probability (After): 72.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:37 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 10 at UCF 29) Mikey Keene pass incomplete - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.31 73.0% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: UCF 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.40 - 0.72 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.72)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.0%

Win Probability (After): 71.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:29 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 10 at UCF 29) Mikey Keene pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 2 yds to the UCF 31 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.77 71.6% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 69

Started Drive at: UCF 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.51 - 0.27 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.27)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.6%

Win Probability (After): 69.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:29 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 8 at UCF 31) Timeout MEMPHIS, clock 01:29 - MEM 7, UCF 14 0.00 69.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: UCF 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.51 - -0.51 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.49)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.4%

Win Probability (After): 69.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:22 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 8 at UCF 31) Andrew Osteen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Calvin Austin III at the Memph 30 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.62 71.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 70

Started Drive at: UCF 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.80 - -0.18 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.82)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.20)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.0%

Win Probability (After): 70.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:17 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 30) Gabriel Rogers run for 3 yds to the Memph 33 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.19 29.4% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 67

Started Drive at: MEM 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 0.85 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.15)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.4%

Win Probability (After): 28.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:13 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 7 at MEM 33) Peter Parrish pass incomplete - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.42 28.8% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: MEM 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.31 - 0.73 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.27)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.8%

Win Probability (After): 27.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:03 ESPN team id 235 (3rd & 7 at MEM 33) Peter Parrish pass complete to Javon Ivory for 6 yds to the Memph 39 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.12 27.0% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 61

Started Drive at: MEM 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.14 - 0.26 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.74)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.0%

Win Probability (After): 27.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:54 ESPN team id 235 (4th & 1 at MEM 39) Timeout UCF, clock 00:54 - MEM 7, UCF 14 0.00 27.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: MEM 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.14 - 0.14 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.86)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.3%

Win Probability (After): 27.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:51 ESPN team id 235 (4th & 1 at MEM 39) Peter Parrish run for no gain to the Memph 39 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 14 -2.40 28.4% -7.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 39

Started Drive at: MEM 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.21 - 0.19 = -2.40

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.81)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.21)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.4%

Win Probability (After): 21.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:46 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at MEM 39) Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Memph 35 - MEM 7, UCF 14 0.22 78.8% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 35

Started Drive at: MEM 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 2.18 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.18)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.8%

Win Probability (After): 79.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:46 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 6 at MEM 35) Timeout UCF, clock 00:46 - MEM 7, UCF 14 0.00 79.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35

Started Drive at: MEM 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 2.40 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.40)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.3%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:37 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 6 at MEM 35) Mikey Keene run for 7 yds to the Memph 28 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 14 0.72 79.0% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 28

Started Drive at: MEM 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.08 - 2.36 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.36)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.0%

Win Probability (After): 80.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:28 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at MEM 28) Mikey Keene pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 8 yds to the Memph 20 - MEM 7, UCF 14 0.94 80.7% 2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 20

Started Drive at: MEM 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.72 - 2.78 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.78)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.7%

Win Probability (After): 83.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:22 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 2 at MEM 20) Timeout UCF, clock 00:22 - MEM 7, UCF 14 0.00 83.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: MEM 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.72 - 3.72 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.72)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.1%

Win Probability (After): 83.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:14 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 2 at MEM 20) Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Brandon Johnson - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.22 83.4% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: MEM 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.12 - 3.34 = -0.22

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.4%

Win Probability (After): 82.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:14 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 2 at MEM 20) UCF Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Memph 25 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.35 82.2% -2.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 25

Started Drive at: MEM 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.64 - 2.99 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.99)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.2%

Win Probability (After): 79.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:09 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 7 at MEM 25) Daniel Obarski 42 yd FG MISSED - MEM 7, UCF 14 -2.48 78.6% -9.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 75

Started Drive at: MEM 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - 2.38 = -2.48

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.38)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.90)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.6%

Win Probability (After): 69.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q2 0:06 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 25) TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 20 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.05 29.8% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 80

Started Drive at: MEM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 0.05 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.95)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.8%

Win Probability (After): 28.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 235 (Kickoff at MEM 35) Daniel Obarski kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MEM 7, UCF 14 0.00 28.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MEM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.48 - -0.48 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.48)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.2%

Win Probability (After): 28.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:55 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 25) Peter Parrish pass complete to Javon Ivory for 5 yds to the Memph 30 - MEM 7, UCF 14 0.14 30.0% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: MEM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.26 - -0.40 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.40)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.0%

Win Probability (After): 28.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:27 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 5 at MEM 30) Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Sean Dykes - MEM 7, UCF 14 -1.10 30.0% -2.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: MEM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.12 - -0.02 = -1.10

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.02)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.0%

Win Probability (After): 27.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:20 ESPN team id 235 (3rd & 5 at MEM 30) Peter Parrish run for 8 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 14 1.93 27.5% 4.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 62

Started Drive at: MEM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.96 - -0.98 = 1.93

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.98)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.5%

Win Probability (After): 32.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:12 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 38) Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Calvin Austin III - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.60 31.9% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: MEM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.32 - 0.92 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.08)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.9%

Win Probability (After): 31.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:06 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 10 at MEM 38) Peter Parrish pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 4 yds to the Memph 42 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.41 30.9% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 58

Started Drive at: MEM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.34 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.66)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.9%

Win Probability (After): 29.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:26 ESPN team id 235 (3rd & 6 at MEM 42) Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Calvin Austin III - MEM 7, UCF 14 -1.59 28.4% -3.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: MEM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.59 - 0.00 = -1.59

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.00)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.4%

Win Probability (After): 24.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:15 ESPN team id 235 (4th & 6 at MEM 42) Joe Doyle punt for 42 yds, downed at the UCF 16 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.29 24.0% 0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 84

Started Drive at: MEM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.77 - -1.48 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.48)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.77)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.0%

Win Probability (After): 24.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 13:08 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 16) Isaiah Bowser run for 8 yds to the UCF 24 - MEM 7, UCF 14 0.47 74.3% 2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 76

Started Drive at: UCF 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 1.77 = 0.47

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.77)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.3%

Win Probability (After): 76.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:50 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 2 at UCF 24) Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 22 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -1.44 77.2% -3.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 78

Started Drive at: UCF 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - 2.34 = -1.44

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.2%

Win Probability (After): 73.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:18 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 4 at UCF 22) Mikey Keene pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 6 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 14 1.46 74.4% 2.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 72

Started Drive at: UCF 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.44 - 0.98 = 1.46

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.98)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.4%

Win Probability (After): 77.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:54 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 28) Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the UCF 33 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.05 77.4% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 67

Started Drive at: UCF 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 2.40 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.40)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.4%

Win Probability (After): 77.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:23 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 5 at UCF 33) Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 31 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -1.34 77.3% -3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 69

Started Drive at: UCF 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 2.35 = -1.34

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.35)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.3%

Win Probability (After): 74.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:52 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 7 at UCF 31) Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Brandon Johnson - MEM 7, UCF 14 -1.29 74.1% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: UCF 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.30 - 0.99 = -1.29

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.99)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.1%

Win Probability (After): 72.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:40 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 7 at UCF 31) Andrew Osteen punt for 35 yds, downed at the Memph 34 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.79 72.1% -1.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 66

Started Drive at: UCF 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.96 - -0.17 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.83)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.04)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.1%

Win Probability (After): 70.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:32 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 34) Peter Parrish pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 12 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 14 0.71 31.2% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 54

Started Drive at: MEM 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.66 - 0.95 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.05)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.2%

Win Probability (After): 30.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:09 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 46) Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Memph 48 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.32 30.5% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 52

Started Drive at: MEM 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 1.53 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.47)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.5%

Win Probability (After): 32.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:32 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 8 at MEM 48) Peter Parrish pass complete to Roc Taylor for 9 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 14 1.08 30.2% 1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 43

Started Drive at: MEM 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.36 - 1.28 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.72)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.2%

Win Probability (After): 31.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:00 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at UCF 43) Gabriel Rogers run for 1 yd to the UCF 42 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.65 32.2% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 42

Started Drive at: MEM 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 2.59 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.41)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.2%

Win Probability (After): 31.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:30 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 9 at UCF 42) Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Sean Dykes - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.89 31.0% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 42

Started Drive at: MEM 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.94 - 1.83 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.17)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.0%

Win Probability (After): 29.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:20 ESPN team id 235 (3rd & 9 at UCF 42) Peter Parrish pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 6 yds to the UCF 36 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.65 28.9% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 36

Started Drive at: MEM 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.18 - 0.83 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.17)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.9%

Win Probability (After): 26.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:41 ESPN team id 235 (4th & 3 at UCF 36) Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Javon Ivory - MEM 7, UCF 14 -3.07 26.0% -4.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 64

Started Drive at: MEM 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.87 - 0.20 = -3.07

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.80)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.87)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.0%

Win Probability (After): 21.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:35 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 36) Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the UCF 43 - MEM 7, UCF 14 0.33 78.3% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 57

Started Drive at: UCF 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.17 - 2.84 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.84)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.3%

Win Probability (After): 78.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:07 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 3 at UCF 43) Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 14 0.08 78.9% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 53

Started Drive at: UCF 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 3.27 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.27)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:35 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 47) Isaiah Bowser run for 9 yds to the Memph 44 - MEM 7, UCF 14 0.77 79.2% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 44

Started Drive at: UCF 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.14 - 3.36 = 0.77

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.36)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.2%

Win Probability (After): 79.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:05 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 1 at MEM 44) Isaiah Bowser run for 14 yds to the Memph 30 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 14 0.45 83.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 30

Started Drive at: UCF 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.54 - 4.09 = 0.45

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.09)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.1%

Win Probability (After): 82.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:34 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at MEM 30) Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 31 - MEM 7, UCF 14 -0.94 83.8% -3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 31

Started Drive at: UCF 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.60 - 4.54 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.54)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.8%

Win Probability (After): 80.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:59 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 11 at MEM 31) Ryan O'Keefe run for 31 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) - MEM 7, UCF 21 3.39 81.8% 9.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 99

Started Drive at: UCF 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.61 = 3.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.61)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.8%

Win Probability (After): 91.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:59 ESPN team id 235 (Kickoff at MEM 35) Daniel Obarski kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MEM 7, UCF 21 0.00 9.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MEM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.53 - -0.53 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.53)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.4%

Win Probability (After): 9.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:50 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 25) Peter Parrish sacked by Big Kat Bryant for a loss of 9 yards to the Memph 16 - MEM 7, UCF 21 -1.45 9.6% -1.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 84

Started Drive at: MEM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.98 - -0.53 = -1.45

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.53)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, -9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.6%

Win Probability (After): 7.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:08 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 19 at MEM 16) Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Calvin Austin III - MEM 7, UCF 21 -0.78 7.9% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 84

Started Drive at: MEM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.77 - -1.98 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.98)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-16.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.9%

Win Probability (After): 7.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:56 ESPN team id 235 (3rd & 19 at MEM 16) Peter Parrish pass complete to Brandon Thomas for 2 yds to the Memph 18 - MEM 7, UCF 21 -0.82 6.9% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 82

Started Drive at: MEM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.58 - -2.76 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-16.76)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-17.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.9%

Win Probability (After): 6.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:12 ESPN team id 235 (4th & 17 at MEM 18) Joe Doyle punt for 52 yds , Titus Mokiao-Atimalala returns for 9 yds to the UCF 39 - MEM 7, UCF 21 0.41 5.6% -0.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 61

Started Drive at: MEM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.18 - -3.59 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-17.59)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.18)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 5.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:04 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 39) Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 41 - MEM 7, UCF 21 -0.46 94.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 59

Started Drive at: UCF 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 3.27 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.27)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.8%

Win Probability (After): 94.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:30 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 8 at UCF 41) Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 17 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 21 1.31 94.7% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 42

Started Drive at: UCF 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.12 - 2.82 = 1.31

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.82)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.7%

Win Probability (After): 95.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:53 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at MEM 42) Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Memph 41 - MEM 7, UCF 21 -0.43 94.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 41

Started Drive at: UCF 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.65 - 4.08 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.08)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.8%

Win Probability (After): 94.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:15 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 9 at MEM 41) Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 10 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 21 0.95 94.8% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 31

Started Drive at: UCF 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.60 - 3.65 = 0.95

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.65)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.8%

Win Probability (After): 95.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:39 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at MEM 31) Johnny Richardson run for 20 yds to the Memph 11 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 21 0.90 95.8% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 11

Started Drive at: UCF 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.50 - 4.60 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.60)

Score Difference (End): 14 (19.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.8%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:01 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at MEM 11) Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for no gain to the Memph 11 - MEM 7, UCF 21 -0.53 96.8% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 11

Started Drive at: UCF 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.93 - 5.46 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): 14 (19.46)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.8%

Win Probability (After): 96.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:52 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 10 at MEM 11) Joey Gatewood pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 4 yds to the Memph 7 - MEM 7, UCF 21 -0.55 96.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 7

Started Drive at: UCF 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.32 - 4.87 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.87)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:13 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 6 at MEM 7) Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Charlie Browder - MEM 7, UCF 21 -1.38 96.5% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 7

Started Drive at: UCF 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 4.30 = -1.38

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.30)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.5%

Win Probability (After): 95.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:09 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 6 at MEM 7) Daniel Obarski 24 yd FG GOOD - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.09 96.0% 2.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 7

Started Drive at: UCF 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.91 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.91)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.0%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:09 ESPN team id 235 (Kickoff at MEM 35) Daniel Obarski kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.00 2.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MEM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.43 - -0.43 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.43)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.2%

Win Probability (After): 2.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:02 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 25) Peter Parrish pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 5 yds to the Memph 30 - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.05 2.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: MEM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.37 - -0.43 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.43)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.3%

Win Probability (After): 2.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:39 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 5 at MEM 30) Peter Parrish pass intercepted Davonte Brown return for 14 yds to the Memph 44 UCF Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Memph 45 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -3.59 2.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 45

Started Drive at: MEM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.96 - -0.39 = -3.59

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.37)

Score Difference (End): 17 (20.96)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:32 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at MEM 45) Johnny Richardson run for 6 yds to the Memph 39 - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.14 98.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 39

Started Drive at: MEM 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.12 - 3.98 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): 17 (20.98)

Score Difference (End): 17 (21.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.9%

Win Probability (After): 98.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:00 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 4 at MEM 39) Johnny Richardson run for no gain to the Memph 39 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -0.78 99.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39

Started Drive at: MEM 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.31 - 4.09 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): 17 (21.09)

Score Difference (End): 17 (20.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 98.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:35 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 4 at MEM 39) UCF Penalty, False Start (Brandon Johnson) to the Memph 44 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -0.80 99.0% -0.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 44

Started Drive at: MEM 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 3.29 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): 17 (20.29)

Score Difference (End): 17 (19.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.0%

Win Probability (After): 98.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:08 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 9 at MEM 44) Mikey Keene pass intercepted, touchback. Tyrez Lindsey return for no gain - MEM 7, UCF 24 -1.85 98.9% -0.8%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 80

Started Drive at: MEM 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.61 - 2.46 = -1.85

Score Difference (Before): 17 (19.46)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.61)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.9%

Win Probability (After): 98.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 20) Peter Parrish pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 11 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.89 1.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 69

Started Drive at: MEM 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.27 - -0.62 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.62)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-16.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.8%

Win Probability (After): 2.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:48 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 31) Peter Parrish run for 9 yds to the Memph 40 - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.88 2.0% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 60

Started Drive at: MEM 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.19 - 0.31 = 0.88

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.69)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-15.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.0%

Win Probability (After): 2.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:30 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 1 at MEM 40) Peter Parrish pass complete to Marquavius Weaver for 11 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.66 2.2% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 49

Started Drive at: MEM 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.91 - 1.25 = 0.66

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-15.75)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-15.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.2%

Win Probability (After): 2.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:02 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at UCF 49) Peter Parrish run for 2 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UCF 37 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.77 2.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 37

Started Drive at: MEM 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.68 - 2.04 = 0.77

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-15.09)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-14.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.6%

Win Probability (After): 2.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:30 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at UCF 37) Peter Parrish pass complete to Roc Taylor for 10 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.82 2.7% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 27

Started Drive at: MEM 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.64 - 2.82 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-14.18)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-13.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.7%

Win Probability (After): 3.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:10 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at UCF 27) Peter Parrish sacked by Tatum Bethune for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 33 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -1.92 2.7% -0.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 33

Started Drive at: MEM 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.74 - 3.66 = -1.92

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-13.34)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-15.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.7%

Win Probability (After): 2.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:00 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 16 at UCF 33) Peter Parrish pass complete to Marquavius Weaver for 5 yds to the UCF 28 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -0.30 2.0% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 28

Started Drive at: MEM 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.40 - 1.70 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-15.30)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-15.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:30 ESPN team id 235 (3rd & 11 at UCF 28) Peter Parrish run for 8 yds to the UCF 20 - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.16 1.8% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 20

Started Drive at: MEM 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.52 - 1.35 = 0.16

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-15.65)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-15.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.8%

Win Probability (After): 2.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:00 ESPN team id 235 (4th & 3 at UCF 20) Peter Parrish pass complete to Javon Ivory for 5 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 24 3.01 2.1% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 15

Started Drive at: MEM 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.60 - 1.59 = 3.01

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-15.41)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-12.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.1%

Win Probability (After): 2.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 8:40 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at UCF 15) Peter Parrish pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 6 yds to the UCF 9 - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.30 2.7% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 9

Started Drive at: MEM 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.89 - 4.59 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-12.41)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-12.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.7%

Win Probability (After): 2.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:30 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 4 at UCF 9) UCF Penalty, Defensive Holding (11 Yards) to the UCF 4 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.86 2.9% 0.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 4

Started Drive at: MEM 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.74 - 4.89 = 0.86

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-12.11)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-11.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.9%

Win Probability (After): 3.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:00 ESPN team id 235 (1st & Goal at UCF 4) Peter Parrish sacked by Big Kat Bryant for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 13 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -2.26 3.0% -0.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 13

Started Drive at: MEM 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.51 - 5.77 = -2.26

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-11.23)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-13.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.0%

Win Probability (After): 2.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:07 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & Goal at UCF 13) Peter Parrish pass intercepted Divaad Wilson return for 25 yds to the UCF 25 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -5.50 1.8% -0.8%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 75

Started Drive at: MEM 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.90 - 3.60 = -5.50

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-13.40)

Score Difference (End): 17 (18.90)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 87 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.8%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:55 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 25) Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 27 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -0.48 99.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: UCF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.50 - 1.98 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 17 (18.98)

Score Difference (End): 17 (18.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:21 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 8 at UCF 27) Mikey Keene pass incomplete - MEM 7, UCF 24 -0.82 99.4% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: UCF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 1.37 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): 17 (18.37)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:21 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 8 at UCF 27) UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 22 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -0.43 99.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 78

Started Drive at: UCF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 0.45 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): 17 (17.45)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:06 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 13 at UCF 22) Johnny Richardson run for 4 yds to the UCF 26 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -0.70 99.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 74

Started Drive at: UCF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.82 - -0.12 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): 17 (16.88)

Score Difference (End): 17 (16.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 98.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:39 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 9 at UCF 26) Andrew Osteen punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Calvin Austin III at the Memph 39 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -0.31 99.2% -0.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 61

Started Drive at: UCF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.27 - -0.96 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): 17 (16.04)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-15.73)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:26 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 39) Peter Parrish pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 4 yds to the Memph 43 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -0.35 1.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 57

Started Drive at: MEM 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 1.48 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-15.52)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-15.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:03 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 6 at MEM 43) Peter Parrish pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 15 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 24 1.31 0.9% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 42

Started Drive at: MEM 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.68 - 1.37 = 1.31

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-15.63)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-14.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.9%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:43 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 10 at UCF 42) UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Marco Domio) to the UCF 27 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 24 1.71 1.0% 0.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 27

Started Drive at: MEM 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.86 - 2.15 = 1.71

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-14.85)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-13.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:29 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at UCF 27) Peter Parrish pass intercepted Dyllon Lester return for 34 yds to the UCF 0 UCF Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the UCF 19 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -5.12 1.3% -1.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 81

Started Drive at: MEM 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.26 - 3.79 = -5.12

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-13.14)

Score Difference (End): 17 (18.26)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:23 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 19) Mark-Antony Richards run for 3 yds to the UCF 22 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -0.34 99.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 78

Started Drive at: UCF 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.88 - 1.22 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 17 (18.22)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:23 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 7 at UCF 22) Timeout MEMPHIS, clock 04:23 - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.00 99.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: UCF 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.88 - 0.88 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 17 (17.88)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:20 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 7 at UCF 22) Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the UCF 23 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -0.49 99.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 77

Started Drive at: UCF 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.84 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 17 (17.84)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:20 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 6 at UCF 23) Timeout MEMPHIS, clock 04:20 - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.00 99.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77

Started Drive at: UCF 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.35 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 17 (17.35)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:13 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 6 at UCF 23) Ryan O'Keefe run for 2 yds to the UCF 25 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -1.02 99.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 75

Started Drive at: UCF 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.80 - 0.22 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): 17 (17.22)

Score Difference (End): 17 (16.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:13 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 4 at UCF 25) Timeout MEMPHIS, clock 04:13 - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.00 99.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: UCF 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.80 - -0.80 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 17 (16.20)

Score Difference (End): 17 (16.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:07 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 4 at UCF 25) Andrew Osteen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the Memph 35 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -0.38 99.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65

Started Drive at: UCF 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.15 - -0.77 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): 17 (16.23)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-15.85)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 3:55 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at MEM 35) Peter Parrish pass complete to Asa Martin for 5 yds to the Memph 40 - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.05 0.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 60

Started Drive at: MEM 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.33 - 1.28 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-15.72)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-15.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:45 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 5 at MEM 40) Peter Parrish pass incomplete - MEM 7, UCF 24 -0.55 0.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: MEM 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.77 - 1.31 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-15.69)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-16.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:38 ESPN team id 235 (3rd & 5 at MEM 40) UCF Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Trillion Coles) to the UCF 45 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 24 1.66 0.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 45

Started Drive at: MEM 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 0.77 = 1.66

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.23)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-14.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:27 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at UCF 45) Peter Parrish pass complete to Asa Martin for 8 yds to the UCF 37 - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.86 0.7% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 37

Started Drive at: MEM 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.16 - 2.30 = 0.86

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-14.70)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-13.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 0.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:12 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 2 at UCF 37) Peter Parrish pass complete to Marcayll Jones for 24 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 24 1.78 0.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 13

Started Drive at: MEM 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.71 - 2.94 = 1.78

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-14.06)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-12.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:55 ESPN team id 235 (1st & 10 at UCF 13) Peter Parrish pass complete to Asa Martin for 1 yd to the UCF 12 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -0.28 1.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 12

Started Drive at: MEM 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 4.62 = -0.28

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-12.38)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-12.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:37 ESPN team id 235 (2nd & 9 at UCF 12) Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Marcayll Jones - MEM 7, UCF 24 -0.67 1.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 12

Started Drive at: MEM 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.54 - 4.20 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-12.80)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-13.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:31 ESPN team id 235 (3rd & 8 at UCF 12) Peter Parrish pass incomplete to Gabriel Rogers - MEM 7, UCF 24 -1.38 0.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 12

Started Drive at: MEM 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.04 - 3.43 = -1.38

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-13.57)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-14.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:23 ESPN team id 235 (4th & 8 at UCF 12) Peter Parrish run for 7 yds to the UCF 5 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -2.72 0.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 95

Started Drive at: MEM 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.62 - 2.10 = -2.72

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-14.90)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.62)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:12 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 5) Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 4 - MEM 7, UCF 24 -0.64 99.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 95 -> 96

Started Drive at: UCF 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.00 - 0.64 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 17 (17.64)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:50 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 11 at UCF 4) Joey Gatewood run for 10 yds to the UCF 14 - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.48 99.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 86

Started Drive at: UCF 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.50 - 0.02 = 0.48

Score Difference (Before): 17 (17.02)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:45 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 1 at UCF 14) Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the UCF 15 for a 1ST down - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.54 99.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 85

Started Drive at: UCF 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - 0.24 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): 17 (17.24)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:11 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 15) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 13 - MEM 7, UCF 24 0.04 99.5% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 87

Started Drive at: UCF 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.11 - 0.07 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): 17 (17.07)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MEM 7, UCF 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2