Cincinnati 27 @ Navy 20

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 2.37 | Odds: CIN -28.5, O/U 48.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 2132 ESPN team id 2426
Total Plays 6296
Total EPA 8.85-1.94
  Offensive EPA 3.03-6.46
  Special Teams EPA 8.62-2.81
  Penalty EPA -2.1511.3
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA -0.65-3.97
Production ESPN team id 2132 ESPN team id 2426
Scrimmage Plays 5184
  Yards 257324
  Yards/Play 5.043.86
  EPA 3.03-6.46
  EPA/Play 0.06-0.08
Passes 31 (61%)18 (21%)
  Yards 176116
  Yards/Play 5.686.44
  EPA 3.898.33
  EPA/Play 0.130.46
Rushes 20 (39%)66 (79%)
  Yards 102198
  Yards/Play 5.103.00
  EPA -0.86-14.79
  EPA/Play -0.04-0.22
Rushing ESPN team id 2132 ESPN team id 2426
Scrimmage Plays 5184
Rushes 20 (39%)66 (79%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 3 (15%)2 (3%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 2 (67%)1 (50%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 7 (35%)15 (23%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 11 (55%)30 (45%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 9 (45%)25 (38%)
OL Line Yards 24.1104.8
  Per Carry 1.201.59
Highlight Yards 46.529
  Per Rush Opportunity 5.171.16
Explosiveness ESPN team id 2132 ESPN team id 2426
Total Plays 6296
Scrimmage Plays 5184
Explosive Plays 5 (10%)7 (8%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 3 (10%)3 (17%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 2 (10%)4 (6%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -11.80-24.16
  EPA/Play -0.26-0.31
  When Passing -5.46-1.23
    EPA/Play -0.18-0.07
  When Rushing -6.34-22.93
    EPA/Play -0.35-0.37
Situational ESPN team id 2132 ESPN team id 2426
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 26 (51%)26 (31%)
  When Passing 17 (55%)8 (44%)
  When Rushing 9 (45%)18 (27%)
  On Standard Downs 18 (50%)21 (36%)
  On Passing Downs 8 (53%)5 (20%)
  On Early Downs 19 (50%)16 (27%)
  On Late Downs 7 (54%)10 (40%)
  During "Middle 8" 0 (0%)7 (33%)
Early Downs 3859
  First Downs Created 5 (13%)7 (12%)
  EPA 0.95-6.94
  EPA/Play 0.02-0.12
  Passes 24 (63%)12 (20%)
  Rushes 14 (37%)47 (80%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 13 (54%)5 (42%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 6 (43%)11 (23%)
"Middle 8" Plays 021
  EPA 0.00-1.94
  EPA/play 0.00-0.09
  Passes 0 (0%)5 (24%)
  Rushes 0 (0%)16 (76%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 0 (0%)1 (20%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 0 (0%)6 (38%)
Drives ESPN team id 2132 ESPN team id 2426
Total 1011
Avg Starting Field Position Own 40Own 25
Plays/Drive 8.4110.98
Yards/Drive 37.2048.63
Available Yards % 62%65%
Defensive ESPN team id 2132 ESPN team id 2426
Scrimmage Plays 8451
Stop Rate 29%24%
Havoc Plays Created 12 (14%)8 (16%)
  Passing 2 (11%)2 (6%)
  Rushing 10 (15%)6 (30%)
TFLs Generated 117
  Passing 11
  Rushing 106
Sacks Generated 1 (6%)1 (3%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 11
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 2132 ESPN team id 2426
Turnovers 12
  Fumbles 01
  Fumbles Lost 01
  Fumbles Recovered 00
  Interceptions 11
Turnover Margin 1-1
Expected Turnovers 0.70.7
Expected Turnover Margin 0.00.0
Turnover Luck (pts) 5.0-5.0
Special Teams ESPN team id 2132 ESPN team id 2426
Total Plays 11 12
Total EPA 8.62 -2.81
  Field Goal EPA 1.86 -2.67
  Punting EPA -0.19 -1.79
  Kickoff Return EPA 6.96 1.65

Cincinnati [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Desmond Ridder 18/30, 176 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 1 Sck, 76.5 xQBR 5.68 0.13 3.89 55% 2.0%
Rush attempts
TEAM 1 carry, -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.00 0.32 0.32 100% 2.0%
Jerome Ford 15 carries, 90 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 -0.04 -0.58 47% 4.0%
Desmond Ridder 4 carries, 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.25 -0.15 -0.59 25% 1.0%
Pass targets
Josh Whyle 4 catches (5 targets), 60 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.00 1.30 6.52 80% 6.0%
Alec Pierce 5 catches (7 targets), 37 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.40 0.49 3.40 57% 0.0%
Michael Young Jr. 1 catch (1 target), 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.00 2.47 2.47 100% 2.0%
Tyler Scott 3 catches (4 targets), 23 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.67 0.36 1.44 75% -1.0%
Tre Tucker 1 catch (2 targets), 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.00 0.36 0.72 50% 1.0%
Jerome Ford 2 catches (2 targets), 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.50 0.18 0.36 100% 1.0%
Leonard Taylor 2 catches (4 targets), 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 -0.25 -0.98 50% -1.0%
Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Tai Lavatai 11/15, 116 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 1 Sck, 72.2 xQBR 7.25 0.56 9.03 50% -2.0%
TEAM 0/2, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 28.5 xQBR 0.00 -0.35 -0.70 0% -1.0%
Rush attempts
Jayden Umbarger 1 carry, 19 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 19.00 1.25 1.25 100% 0.0%
Tai Lavatai 20 carries, 28 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.40 -0.02 -0.37 35% 5.0%
Anton Hall Jr. 1 carry, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.42 -0.42 0% 0.0%
Kai Puailoa-Rojas 1 carry, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.71 -0.71 0% 0.0%
Tyger Goslin 1 carry, 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 -0.78 -0.78 0% 0.0%
Isaac Ruoss 19 carries, 80 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.21 -0.04 -0.79 32% -5.0%
Chance Warren 5 carries, 22 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.40 -0.34 -1.69 20% -4.0%
Carlinos Acie 6 carries, 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.33 -0.39 -2.37 33% -1.0%
James Harris II 9 carries, 27 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.47 -4.25 11% -7.0%
Daniel Jones 3 carries, 0 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 0.00 -1.55 -4.66 0% -3.0%
Pass targets
Kai Puailoa-Rojas 2 catches (2 targets), 47 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 23.50 3.42 6.84 100% 3.0%
Chance Warren 3 catches (3 targets), 29 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.67 1.29 3.86 67% 0.0%
Mark Walker 1 catch (1 target), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 0.80 0.80 100% 1.0%
Mychal Cooper 1 catch (2 targets), 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.00 0.36 0.72 50% 0.0%
Carlinos Acie 2 catches (2 targets), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.50 0.20 0.39 100% 0.0%
Tyger Goslin 1 catch (1 target), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.06 -0.06 0% -2.0%
Daniel Jones 1 catch (1 target), 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.47 -0.47 0% 0.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 12:24 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 22) Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Jamal Glenn return for 1 yd to the Navy 4 - CIN 7, NAVY 10 -4.61 93.8% -4.8%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 96

Started Drive at: CIN 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.15 - 4.47 = -4.61

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.47)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.15)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.8%

Win Probability (After): 89.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:27 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 10 at NAVY 49) Tai Lavatai pass complete to Kai Puailoa-Rojas for 21 yds to the NAVY 30 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (Ja'von Hicks) to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST down - CIN 7, NAVY 7 3.93 6.2% 2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 15

Started Drive at: NAVY 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.06 - 1.19 = 3.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.2%

Win Probability (After): 8.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:01 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 19 at CIN 34) Bijan Nichols 51 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Deshawn Pace Deshawn Pace return for 20 yds to the Navy 34 - CIN 10, NAVY 10 -3.69 11.8% -2.9%

Play Type: Blocked Field Goal

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.34 - 1.35 = -3.69

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.34)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.8%

Win Probability (After): 9.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:39 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 43) Jerome Ford run for 43 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK) - CIN 20, NAVY 10 3.58 93.1% 4.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 99

Started Drive at: CIN 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.42 = 3.58

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.42)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 20, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.1%

Win Probability (After): 97.1%

Away Score: 13 (20) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 2:50 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 31) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 31 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK) - CIN 7, NAVY 7 3.55 90.2% 3.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 99

Started Drive at: NAVY 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.45 = 3.55

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.55)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.2%

Win Probability (After): 94.0%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:43 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 3 at NAVY 43) Jerome Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 45 CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (Dylan O'Quinn) to the Cincy 40 - CIN 27, NAVY 13 -3.42 99.5% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 60

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.52 - 2.46 = -3.42

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.91)

Score Difference (End): 14 (13.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 98.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:00 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 8 at NAVY 33) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 9 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST down - CIN 20, NAVY 10 3.32 97.3% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 24

Started Drive at: NAVY 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.64 - 1.32 = 3.32

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.32)

Score Difference (End): 10 (14.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 20, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.3%

Win Probability (After): 98.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 11:37 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 10 at NAVY 42) Tai Lavatai pass complete to Kai Puailoa-Rojas for 26 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST down - CIN 27, NAVY 10 2.91 0.7% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 32

Started Drive at: NAVY 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 0.37 = 2.91

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.63)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-13.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:06 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 4 at CIN 44) Daniel Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 46 - CIN 13, NAVY 10 -2.83 9.6% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 54

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.81 - 0.01 = -2.83

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.99)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.81)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.6%

Win Probability (After): 7.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 3:00 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 4 at NAVY 26) Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for 12 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST down - CIN 27, NAVY 13 2.72 0.4% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 62

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - -1.26 = 2.72

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.26)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 0:48 ESPN team id 2132 (Kickoff at CIN 35) Daniel Davies on-side kick recovered by NAVY at the Navy 47 - CIN 27, NAVY 20 0.73 99.0% -24.2%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 53

Started Drive at: NAVY 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.31 - 0.59 = 0.73

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.59)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.31)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.0%

Win Probability (After): 74.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:24 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 22) Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Jamal Glenn return for 1 yd to the Navy 4 - CIN 7, NAVY 10 -4.61 93.8% -4.8%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 96

Started Drive at: CIN 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.15 - 4.47 = -4.61

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.47)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.15)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.8%

Win Probability (After): 89.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:38 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 1 at NAVY 34) James Harris II run for no gain to the Navy 34 - CIN 13, NAVY 10 -2.05 12.4% -4.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.96 - 1.09 = -2.05

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.91)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.4%

Win Probability (After): 8.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:19 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 1 at NAVY 34) Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST down - CIN 13, NAVY 10 2.34 8.9% 4.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 64

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - -0.70 = 2.34

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.70)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.9%

Win Probability (After): 13.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:39 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 43) Jerome Ford run for 43 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK) - CIN 20, NAVY 10 3.58 93.1% 4.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 99

Started Drive at: CIN 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.42 = 3.58

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.42)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 20, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.1%

Win Probability (After): 97.1%

Away Score: 13 (20) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 2:50 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 31) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 31 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK) - CIN 7, NAVY 7 3.55 90.2% 3.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 99

Started Drive at: NAVY 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.45 = 3.55

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.55)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.2%

Win Probability (After): 94.0%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:45 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 1 at NAVY 46) CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Myjai Sanders) to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST down - CIN 10, NAVY 10 2.21 12.5% 3.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 49

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.69 - 0.47 = 2.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.47)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.5%

Win Probability (After): 15.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:01 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 19 at CIN 34) Bijan Nichols 51 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Deshawn Pace Deshawn Pace return for 20 yds to the Navy 34 - CIN 10, NAVY 10 -3.69 11.8% -2.9%

Play Type: Blocked Field Goal

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.34 - 1.35 = -3.69

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.34)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.8%

Win Probability (After): 9.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 34) Alex Bales 52 yd FG GOOD - CIN 13, NAVY 10 1.22 90.7% 2.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: NAVY 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.78 = 1.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.78)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.7%

Win Probability (After): 93.4%

Away Score: 10 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q3 11:08 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 1 at NAVY 45) CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Myjai Sanders) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - CIN 13, NAVY 10 2.68 10.6% 2.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 50

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.61 - -0.06 = 2.68

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.06)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.6%

Win Probability (After): 13.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 3:51 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & Goal at CIN 2) Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) - CIN 0, NAVY 7 0.98 9.5% 1.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: NAVY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.02 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.02)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 7

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.5%

Win Probability (After): 11.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:50 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 31) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 31 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK) - CIN 7, NAVY 7 3.55 90.2% 3.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 99

Started Drive at: NAVY 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.45 = 3.55

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.55)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.2%

Win Probability (After): 94.0%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:15 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 11 at CIN 16) Bijan Nichols 33 yd FG GOOD - CIN 7, NAVY 10 0.42 9.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: NAVY 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.58 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.58)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.5%

Win Probability (After): 9.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 4:07 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 10 at NAVY 14) Christian Lowery 32 yd FG GOOD - CIN 10, NAVY 10 0.63 91.2% 1.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.37 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.2%

Win Probability (After): 92.9%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 34) Alex Bales 52 yd FG GOOD - CIN 13, NAVY 10 1.22 90.7% 2.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: NAVY 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.78 = 1.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.78)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.7%

Win Probability (After): 93.4%

Away Score: 10 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q3 7:39 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 43) Jerome Ford run for 43 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK) - CIN 20, NAVY 10 3.58 93.1% 4.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 99

Started Drive at: CIN 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.42 = 3.58

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.42)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 20, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.1%

Win Probability (After): 97.1%

Away Score: 13 (20) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:13 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & Goal at NAVY 3) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 3 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK) - CIN 27, NAVY 10 0.70 98.4% 0.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: NAVY 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.30 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 10 (16.30)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 20 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 7:34 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 3 at CIN 10) Bijan Nichols 27 yd FG GOOD - CIN 27, NAVY 13 0.61 0.7% 1.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: NAVY 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.39 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-14.61)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 2.1%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:50 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & Goal at CIN 1) Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) - CIN 27, NAVY 20 1.16 1.3% 1.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.84 = 1.16

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-8.16)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 20

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 2.3%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2132 (Kickoff at CIN 35) Ben Fee kickoff for 45 yds , Tre Tucker return for 18 yds to the Cincy 38 - CIN 0, NAVY 0 1.07 97.8% 0.7%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 62

Started Drive at: CIN 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 0.86 = 1.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 98.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:55 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 38) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 9 yds to the Cincy 47 - CIN 0, NAVY 0 0.88 98.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 53

Started Drive at: CIN 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 1.98 = 0.88

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.8%

Win Probability (After): 98.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:23 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 1 at CIN 47) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete - CIN 0, NAVY 0 -0.84 98.5% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: CIN 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.15 - 2.98 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.5%

Win Probability (After): 98.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:15 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 1 at CIN 47) Jerome Ford run for no gain to the Cincy 47 - CIN 0, NAVY 0 -1.91 97.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: CIN 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - 2.12 = -1.91

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.12)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:35 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 1 at CIN 47) Mason Fletcher punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 17 - CIN 0, NAVY 0 -1.16 96.3% 0.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 83

Started Drive at: CIN 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.69 - 0.47 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.47)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.69)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.3%

Win Probability (After): 97.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 13:20 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at NAVY 17) Carlinos Acie run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 15 - CIN 0, NAVY 0 -1.25 3.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 85

Started Drive at: NAVY 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.56 - 0.69 = -1.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.69)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.7%

Win Probability (After): 3.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:46 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 12 at NAVY 15) James Harris II run for 5 yds to the Navy 20 - CIN 0, NAVY 0 -0.42 3.8% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 80

Started Drive at: NAVY 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.94 - -0.53 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.8%

Win Probability (After): 3.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:19 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 7 at NAVY 20) Chance Warren run for 5 yds to the Navy 25 - CIN 0, NAVY 0 -0.80 5.2% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 75

Started Drive at: NAVY 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.73 - -0.93 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.93)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.2%

Win Probability (After): 3.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:31 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 2 at NAVY 25) Riley Riethman punt for 41 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 16 yds to the 50 yard line - CIN 0, NAVY 0 -1.13 4.1% -1.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 50

Started Drive at: NAVY 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.81 - -1.69 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.69)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.81)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.1%

Win Probability (After): 2.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 11:27 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at 50) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce - CIN 0, NAVY 0 -0.45 97.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 2.62 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.7%

Win Probability (After): 97.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:27 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 10 at 50) CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Leonard Taylor) to the Cincy 45 - CIN 0, NAVY 0 -0.87 97.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 55

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.05 - 1.92 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.92)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.5%

Win Probability (After): 97.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:19 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 15 at CIN 45) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete - CIN 0, NAVY 0 -1.23 97.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 1.20 = -1.23

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.20)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.2%

Win Probability (After): 97.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:13 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 15 at CIN 45) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler Scott - CIN 0, NAVY 0 -1.35 96.9% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.21 - 0.14 = -1.35

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.9%

Win Probability (After): 96.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:03 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 15 at CIN 45) Mason Fletcher punt for 46 yds , Chance Warren returns for 12 yds to the Navy 21 - CIN 0, NAVY 0 0.37 93.7% 1.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 79

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.79 - -1.17 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.79)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.7%

Win Probability (After): 95.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:49 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at NAVY 21) Carlinos Acie run for 3 yds to the Navy 24 - CIN 0, NAVY 0 -0.65 4.7% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 76

Started Drive at: NAVY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.27 - 0.92 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.92)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.7%

Win Probability (After): 4.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:16 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 7 at NAVY 24) Isaac Ruoss run for 9 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST down - CIN 0, NAVY 0 1.40 5.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 67

Started Drive at: NAVY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.86 - 0.45 = 1.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.45)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.3%

Win Probability (After): 5.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:00 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at NAVY 33) Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 32 - CIN 0, NAVY 0 -1.16 5.9% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 68

Started Drive at: NAVY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.70 - 1.86 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.9%

Win Probability (After): 5.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:07 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 11 at NAVY 32) Isaac Ruoss run for 11 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST down - CIN 0, NAVY 0 1.82 5.3% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 57

Started Drive at: NAVY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.41 - 0.59 = 1.82

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.59)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.3%

Win Probability (After): 6.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:33 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at NAVY 43) Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Navy 47 - CIN 0, NAVY 0 -0.11 5.2% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 53

Started Drive at: NAVY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 2.35 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.2%

Win Probability (After): 5.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:12 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 6 at NAVY 47) Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line - CIN 0, NAVY 0 -0.43 4.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 50

Started Drive at: NAVY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.78 - 2.21 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.7%

Win Probability (After): 4.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:34 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 3 at 50) Chance Warren run for 14 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST down - CIN 0, NAVY 0 2.04 5.0% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 36

Started Drive at: NAVY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.76 - 1.72 = 2.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.0%

Win Probability (After): 5.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:47 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at CIN 36) Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Cincy 32 - CIN 0, NAVY 0 -0.05 5.9% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 32

Started Drive at: NAVY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.72 - 3.77 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.9%

Win Probability (After): 6.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:06 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 6 at CIN 32) Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Cincy 28 - CIN 0, NAVY 0 -0.02 6.6% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 28

Started Drive at: NAVY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.75 - 3.77 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.6%

Win Probability (After): 6.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:39 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 2 at CIN 28) Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST down - CIN 0, NAVY 0 0.60 7.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 26

Started Drive at: NAVY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.36 - 3.75 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.75)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.4%

Win Probability (After): 7.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:03 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at CIN 26) Jayden Umbarger run for 19 yds to the Cincy 7 for a 1ST down - CIN 0, NAVY 0 1.25 8.0% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 7

Started Drive at: NAVY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.61 - 4.35 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.0%

Win Probability (After): 8.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:21 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & Goal at CIN 7) James Harris II run for 5 yds to the Cincy 2 - CIN 0, NAVY 0 0.38 7.8% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 2

Started Drive at: NAVY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.01 - 5.63 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (6.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.8%

Win Probability (After): 9.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:51 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & Goal at CIN 2) Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) - CIN 0, NAVY 7 0.98 9.5% 1.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: NAVY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.02 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.02)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 7

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.5%

Win Probability (After): 11.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:51 ESPN team id 2132 (Kickoff at CIN 35) Ben Fee on-side kick recovered by CINCINNATI at the Navy 48 NAVY Penalty, Illegal Touching (-4 Yards) to the Navy 44 - CIN 0, NAVY 7 2.43 86.7% 2.5%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 44

Started Drive at: NAVY 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.37 - -0.05 = 2.43

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-15.02)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.7%

Win Probability (After): 89.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:28 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 44) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 8 yds to the Navy 36 - CIN 0, NAVY 7 0.74 89.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 36

Started Drive at: NAVY 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.13 - 2.39 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.61)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.8%

Win Probability (After): 89.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:20 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 2 at NAVY 36) Jerome Ford run for 5 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST down - CIN 0, NAVY 7 0.33 90.1% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 31

Started Drive at: NAVY 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 3.12 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.88)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, NAVY 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.1%

Win Probability (After): 90.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:50 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 31) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 31 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK) - CIN 7, NAVY 7 3.55 90.2% 3.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 99

Started Drive at: NAVY 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.45 = 3.55

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.55)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.2%

Win Probability (After): 94.0%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:50 ESPN team id 2426 (Kickoff at NAVY 35) Alex Bales kickoff for 64 yds , Maquel Haywood return for 48 yds to the Navy 49 - CIN 7, NAVY 7 1.65 6.3% 1.2%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 51

Started Drive at: NAVY 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.73 - 1.08 = 1.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.3%

Win Probability (After): 7.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:34 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at NAVY 49) Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line - CIN 7, NAVY 7 -0.58 7.7% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 50

Started Drive at: NAVY 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.15 - 2.73 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.73)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.7%

Win Probability (After): 7.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:00 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 9 at 50) Chance Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 49 - CIN 7, NAVY 7 -1.03 6.8% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 51

Started Drive at: NAVY 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 2.16 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.8%

Win Probability (After): 6.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:27 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 10 at NAVY 49) Tai Lavatai pass complete to Kai Puailoa-Rojas for 21 yds to the NAVY 30 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (Ja'von Hicks) to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST down - CIN 7, NAVY 7 3.93 6.2% 2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 15

Started Drive at: NAVY 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.06 - 1.19 = 3.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.2%

Win Probability (After): 8.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:04 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at CIN 15) Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Cincy 13 - CIN 7, NAVY 7 -0.52 9.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 13

Started Drive at: NAVY 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.54 - 5.06 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.0%

Win Probability (After): 8.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 8 at CIN 13) Carlinos Acie run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 16 - CIN 7, NAVY 7 -1.02 9.7% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 16

Started Drive at: NAVY 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.48 - 4.50 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.50)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.7%

Win Probability (After): 7.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:54 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 11 at CIN 16) Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for no gain to the Cincy 16 - CIN 7, NAVY 7 -0.87 8.0% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: NAVY 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 3.46 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.46)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.0%

Win Probability (After): 7.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:15 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 11 at CIN 16) Bijan Nichols 33 yd FG GOOD - CIN 7, NAVY 10 0.42 9.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: NAVY 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.58 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.58)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.5%

Win Probability (After): 9.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:15 ESPN team id 2132 (Kickoff at CIN 35) Ben Fee kickoff for 27 yds , Michael Kopaygorodsky return for 8 yds to the Cincy 46 - CIN 7, NAVY 10 1.49 92.0% 0.8%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 54

Started Drive at: CIN 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 0.78 = 1.49

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.22)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.0%

Win Probability (After): 92.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:10 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 46) CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (James Tunstall) to the Cincy 41 - CIN 7, NAVY 10 -0.80 92.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 59

Started Drive at: CIN 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.52 - 2.33 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.67)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.8%

Win Probability (After): 92.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:01 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 15 at CIN 41) Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 40 - CIN 7, NAVY 10 -0.71 92.2% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 60

Started Drive at: CIN 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 1.56 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.44)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.2%

Win Probability (After): 91.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:29 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 16 at CIN 40) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 17 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST down - CIN 7, NAVY 10 2.22 91.4% 1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 43

Started Drive at: CIN 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.09 - 0.87 = 2.22

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.13)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.4%

Win Probability (After): 93.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:05 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 43) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 5 yds to the Navy 38 - CIN 7, NAVY 10 0.09 92.7% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 38

Started Drive at: CIN 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.21 - 3.12 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.12)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.7%

Win Probability (After): 92.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:48 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 5 at NAVY 38) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard Taylor - CIN 7, NAVY 10 -0.94 92.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 38

Started Drive at: CIN 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 3.18 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.18)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.5%

Win Probability (After): 92.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:41 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 5 at NAVY 38) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 16 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST down - CIN 7, NAVY 10 2.26 92.3% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 22

Started Drive at: CIN 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 2.23 = 2.26

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.77)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.3%

Win Probability (After): 93.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:24 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 22) Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Jamal Glenn return for 1 yd to the Navy 4 - CIN 7, NAVY 10 -4.61 93.8% -4.8%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 96

Started Drive at: CIN 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.15 - 4.47 = -4.61

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.47)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.15)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.8%

Win Probability (After): 89.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:16 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at NAVY 4) Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 2 - CIN 7, NAVY 10 -1.30 10.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 98

Started Drive at: NAVY 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.08 - 0.22 = -1.30

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.22)

Score Difference (End): 3 (1.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.5%

Win Probability (After): 10.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:36 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 12 at NAVY 2) James Harris II run for 4 yds to the Navy 6 - CIN 7, NAVY 10 -0.05 10.9% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 94

Started Drive at: NAVY 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.25 - -1.19 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): 3 (1.81)

Score Difference (End): 3 (1.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.9%

Win Probability (After): 9.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:36 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 8 at NAVY 6) Chance Warren run for 5 yds to the Navy 11 - CIN 7, NAVY 10 -0.77 10.8% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 89

Started Drive at: NAVY 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.05 - -1.28 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): 3 (1.72)

Score Difference (End): 3 (0.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.8%

Win Probability (After): 9.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:13 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 3 at NAVY 11) Riley Riethman punt for 64 yds, downed at the Cincy 25 - CIN 7, NAVY 10 0.98 9.5% 1.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 75

Started Drive at: NAVY 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.88 - -1.86 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): 3 (1.14)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.12)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.5%

Win Probability (After): 10.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:56 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 25) Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27 - CIN 7, NAVY 10 -0.40 90.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - 0.93 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.07)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.0%

Win Probability (After): 89.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:38 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 8 at CIN 27) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce - CIN 7, NAVY 10 -0.89 89.7% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.42 - 0.48 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.52)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.7%

Win Probability (After): 88.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:31 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 8 at CIN 27) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 13 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST down - CIN 7, NAVY 10 2.47 88.4% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 60

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - -0.45 = 2.47

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.45)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.4%

Win Probability (After): 90.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:58 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 40) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 6 yds to the Cincy 46 - CIN 7, NAVY 10 0.26 89.5% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 54

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.21 - 1.95 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.05)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.5%

Win Probability (After): 90.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:24 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 4 at CIN 46) Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Cincy 47 - CIN 7, NAVY 10 -0.53 89.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 53

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.43 - 1.96 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.04)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.8%

Win Probability (After): 89.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:43 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 3 at CIN 47) Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST down - CIN 7, NAVY 10 1.26 88.9% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 47

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.62 - 1.37 = 1.26

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.63)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.9%

Win Probability (After): 90.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:25 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 47) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josh Whyle - CIN 7, NAVY 10 -0.70 90.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.14 - 2.84 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.16)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.0%

Win Probability (After): 89.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:25 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 10 at NAVY 47) Timeout CINCINNATI, clock 07:25 - CIN 7, NAVY 10 0.00 89.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.14 - 2.14 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.86)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.4%

Win Probability (After): 89.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:15 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 10 at NAVY 47) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 9 yds to the Navy 38 - CIN 7, NAVY 10 0.74 88.9% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 38

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.06 - 2.32 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.68)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.9%

Win Probability (After): 89.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:51 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 1 at NAVY 38) Jerome Ford run for 4 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST down - CIN 7, NAVY 10 0.52 89.6% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 34

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.56 - 3.04 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.04)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.6%

Win Probability (After): 89.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:13 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 34) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 9 yds to the Navy 25 - CIN 7, NAVY 10 0.63 89.9% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 25

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.31 - 3.68 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.68)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.9%

Win Probability (After): 90.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:48 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 1 at NAVY 25) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 11 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST down - CIN 7, NAVY 10 0.60 90.9% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 14

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.81 - 4.21 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.21)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.9%

Win Probability (After): 91.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:20 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 14) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 7 yds to the Navy 7 - CIN 7, NAVY 10 0.54 92.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 7

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.33 - 4.79 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.79)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.4%

Win Probability (After): 91.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:49 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 3 at NAVY 7) Desmond Ridder sacked by Jacob Busic for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 14 - CIN 7, NAVY 10 -1.87 93.5% -2.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 14

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.52 - 5.39 = -1.87

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.39)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.5%

Win Probability (After): 91.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:11 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 10 at NAVY 14) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard Taylor - CIN 7, NAVY 10 -1.21 92.1% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 3.56 = -1.21

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.56)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 7, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.1%

Win Probability (After): 91.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:07 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 10 at NAVY 14) Christian Lowery 32 yd FG GOOD - CIN 10, NAVY 10 0.63 91.2% 1.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.37 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.2%

Win Probability (After): 92.9%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 4:07 ESPN team id 2426 (Kickoff at NAVY 35) Alex Bales kickoff for 62 yds , Maquel Haywood return for 22 yds to the Navy 25 - CIN 10, NAVY 10 0.00 12.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 1.26 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.26)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.6%

Win Probability (After): 12.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:55 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at NAVY 25) James Harris II run for 4 yds to the Navy 29 - CIN 10, NAVY 10 -0.14 11.9% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 1.28 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.9%

Win Probability (After): 12.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:19 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 6 at NAVY 29) Carlinos Acie run for 8 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST down - CIN 10, NAVY 10 0.99 11.5% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 63

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.10 - 1.12 = 0.99

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.12)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.5%

Win Probability (After): 12.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:38 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at NAVY 37) Tai Lavatai pass complete to Tyger Goslin for 4 yds to the Navy 41 - CIN 10, NAVY 10 -0.06 14.7% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 59

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.04 - 2.10 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.7%

Win Probability (After): 12.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:16 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 6 at NAVY 41) Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 44 - CIN 10, NAVY 10 -0.46 14.5% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 56

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.65 - 2.11 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.5%

Win Probability (After): 13.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:53 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 3 at NAVY 44) James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 46 - CIN 10, NAVY 10 -1.10 14.0% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 54

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 1.66 = -1.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.66)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.0%

Win Probability (After): 12.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:45 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 1 at NAVY 46) CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Myjai Sanders) to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST down - CIN 10, NAVY 10 2.21 12.5% 3.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 49

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.69 - 0.47 = 2.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.47)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.5%

Win Probability (After): 15.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:34 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at CIN 49) Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mychal Cooper - CIN 10, NAVY 10 -0.30 15.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 2.54 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.3%

Win Probability (After): 15.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:24 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 10 at CIN 49) Isaac Ruoss run for 7 yds to the Cincy 42 - CIN 10, NAVY 10 0.04 15.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 42

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.15 - 2.11 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.0%

Win Probability (After): 14.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:04 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 3 at CIN 42) Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST down - CIN 10, NAVY 10 1.03 14.9% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 37

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 2.16 = 1.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.9%

Win Probability (After): 16.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:03 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at CIN 37) Timeout NAVY, clock 01:03 - CIN 10, NAVY 10 0.00 16.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 37

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 3.19 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.5%

Win Probability (After): 16.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:59 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at CIN 37) Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mark Walker for 9 yds to the Cincy 28 - CIN 10, NAVY 10 0.80 16.3% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 28

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.91 - 3.11 = 0.80

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.3%

Win Probability (After): 17.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:50 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 1 at CIN 28) Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 29 - CIN 10, NAVY 10 -0.61 16.9% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 29

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 3.95 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.9%

Win Probability (After): 16.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:40 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 2 at CIN 29) Timeout NAVY, clock 00:40 - CIN 10, NAVY 10 0.00 16.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 29

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 3.34 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.5%

Win Probability (After): 16.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:38 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 2 at CIN 29) Isaac Ruoss run for 4 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST down - CIN 10, NAVY 10 0.48 16.2% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 25

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.85 - 3.37 = 0.48

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.2%

Win Probability (After): 17.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:26 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at CIN 25) Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 28 - CIN 10, NAVY 10 -0.69 17.5% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 28

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.96 - 3.65 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.65)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.5%

Win Probability (After): 15.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:25 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 13 at CIN 28) Timeout NAVY, clock 00:25 - CIN 10, NAVY 10 0.00 16.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 28

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.96 - 2.96 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.96)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.3%

Win Probability (After): 16.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:13 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 13 at CIN 28) Tai Lavatai sacked by Curtis Brooks for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 34 - CIN 10, NAVY 10 -0.38 16.6% -1.9%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 34

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.20 - 2.58 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.58)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.6%

Win Probability (After): 14.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:10 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 19 at CIN 34) TEAM pass incomplete - CIN 10, NAVY 10 -0.47 15.0% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.49 - 1.96 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.96)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.0%

Win Probability (After): 13.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:10 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 19 at CIN 34) Timeout CINCINNATI, clock 00:10 - CIN 10, NAVY 10 0.00 13.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.49 - 1.49 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.8%

Win Probability (After): 13.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:01 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 19 at CIN 34) Bijan Nichols 51 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Deshawn Pace Deshawn Pace return for 20 yds to the Navy 34 - CIN 10, NAVY 10 -3.69 11.8% -2.9%

Play Type: Blocked Field Goal

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.34 - 1.35 = -3.69

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.34)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 10, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.8%

Win Probability (After): 9.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 34) Alex Bales 52 yd FG GOOD - CIN 13, NAVY 10 1.22 90.7% 2.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: NAVY 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.78 = 1.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.78)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.7%

Win Probability (After): 93.4%

Away Score: 10 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2426 (Kickoff at NAVY 35) Alex Bales kickoff for 63 yds for a touchback - CIN 13, NAVY 10 0.00 8.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 0.44 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.56)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.7%

Win Probability (After): 8.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:55 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at NAVY 25) Carlinos Acie run for 7 yds to the Navy 32 - CIN 13, NAVY 10 0.57 8.7% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 68

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 0.50 = 0.57

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.50)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.7%

Win Probability (After): 9.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:08 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 3 at NAVY 32) James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 34 - CIN 13, NAVY 10 -0.16 9.9% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 66

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 1.19 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.81)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.9%

Win Probability (After): 9.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:38 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 1 at NAVY 34) James Harris II run for no gain to the Navy 34 - CIN 13, NAVY 10 -2.05 12.4% -4.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.96 - 1.09 = -2.05

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.91)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.4%

Win Probability (After): 8.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:19 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 1 at NAVY 34) Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST down - CIN 13, NAVY 10 2.34 8.9% 4.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 64

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - -0.70 = 2.34

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.70)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.9%

Win Probability (After): 13.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 12:44 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at NAVY 36) Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 39 - CIN 13, NAVY 10 -0.46 11.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 61

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.19 - 1.65 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.35)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.5%

Win Probability (After): 11.0%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:08 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 7 at NAVY 39) Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 42 - CIN 13, NAVY 10 -0.23 11.4% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 58

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 1.18 = -0.23

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.82)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.4%

Win Probability (After): 10.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:31 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 4 at NAVY 42) Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 45 - CIN 13, NAVY 10 -1.07 11.1% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 55

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 1.05 = -1.07

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.95)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.1%

Win Probability (After): 9.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:08 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 1 at NAVY 45) CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Myjai Sanders) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - CIN 13, NAVY 10 2.68 10.6% 2.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 50

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.61 - -0.06 = 2.68

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.06)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.6%

Win Probability (After): 13.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:45 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at 50) Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Cincy 49 - CIN 13, NAVY 10 -0.53 13.8% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 49

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 2.53 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.47)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.8%

Win Probability (After): 13.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:59 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 9 at CIN 49) Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Cincy 46 - CIN 13, NAVY 10 -0.50 13.1% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 46

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.52 - 2.01 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.99)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.1%

Win Probability (After): 12.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:18 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 6 at CIN 46) Isaac Ruoss run for 2 yds to the Cincy 44 - CIN 13, NAVY 10 -1.83 11.9% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 44

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.16 - 1.66 = -1.83

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.34)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.9%

Win Probability (After): 10.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:11 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 4 at CIN 44) Timeout NAVY, clock 09:11 - CIN 13, NAVY 10 0.00 10.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.16 - -0.16 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.16)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.6%

Win Probability (After): 10.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:06 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 4 at CIN 44) Daniel Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 46 - CIN 13, NAVY 10 -2.83 9.6% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 54

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.81 - 0.01 = -2.83

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.99)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.81)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.6%

Win Probability (After): 7.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:06 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 46) CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Lorenz Metz) to the Cincy 41 - CIN 13, NAVY 10 -0.72 92.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 59

Started Drive at: CIN 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.10 - 2.83 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.83)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.8%

Win Probability (After): 92.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 8:58 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 15 at CIN 41) Jerome Ford run for 10 yds to the Navy 49 - CIN 13, NAVY 10 0.83 92.3% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 49

Started Drive at: CIN 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.95 - 2.12 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.12)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.3%

Win Probability (After): 93.0%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 8:28 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 5 at NAVY 49) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 4 yds to the Navy 45 - CIN 13, NAVY 10 -0.01 92.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 45

Started Drive at: CIN 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.91 - 2.92 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.92)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.7%

Win Probability (After): 92.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 8:08 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 1 at NAVY 45) Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST down - CIN 13, NAVY 10 0.63 92.9% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 43

Started Drive at: CIN 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.43 - 2.80 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.80)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 13, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.9%

Win Probability (After): 92.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 7:39 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 43) Jerome Ford run for 43 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK) - CIN 20, NAVY 10 3.58 93.1% 4.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 99

Started Drive at: CIN 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.42 = 3.58

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.42)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 20, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.1%

Win Probability (After): 97.1%

Away Score: 13 (20) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 7:39 ESPN team id 2426 (Kickoff at NAVY 35) Alex Bales kickoff for 62 yds , Maquel Haywood return for 22 yds to the Navy 25 - CIN 20, NAVY 10 0.00 3.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 0.02 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.98)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 20, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.6%

Win Probability (After): 3.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:30 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at NAVY 25) James Harris II run for 2 yds to the Navy 27 - CIN 20, NAVY 10 -0.37 3.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.42 - -0.05 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.05)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 20, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.5%

Win Probability (After): 3.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:49 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 8 at NAVY 27) Carlinos Acie run for 1 yd to the Navy 28 - CIN 20, NAVY 10 -1.00 3.7% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 72

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.41 - -0.41 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.41)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-11.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 20, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.7%

Win Probability (After): 3.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:09 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 7 at NAVY 28) Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Navy 31 - CIN 20, NAVY 10 -0.60 3.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 69

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.88 - -1.28 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-11.28)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-11.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 20, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.2%

Win Probability (After): 3.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:35 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 4 at NAVY 31) Riley Riethman punt for 33 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 19 yds to the Navy 45 - CIN 20, NAVY 10 -1.70 3.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 45

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.59 - -1.89 = -1.70

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-11.89)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.59)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 20, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.0%

Win Probability (After): 2.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 5:30 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 45) Jerome Ford run for 10 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST down - CIN 20, NAVY 10 0.51 98.0% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 35

Started Drive at: NAVY 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.09 - 3.58 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.58)

Score Difference (End): 10 (14.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 20, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.0%

Win Probability (After): 98.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 5:08 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 35) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete - CIN 20, NAVY 10 -0.59 98.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35

Started Drive at: NAVY 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.50 - 4.09 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 10 (14.09)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 20, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.0%

Win Probability (After): 97.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:57 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 10 at NAVY 35) Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Navy 33 - CIN 20, NAVY 10 -0.63 97.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 33

Started Drive at: NAVY 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 3.50 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.50)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 20, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.9%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:20 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 8 at NAVY 33) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre Tucker CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Renfro) declined - CIN 20, NAVY 10 -1.54 97.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33

Started Drive at: NAVY 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 2.89 = -1.54

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.89)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 20, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.7%

Win Probability (After): 97.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:00 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 8 at NAVY 33) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 9 yds to the Navy 24 for a 1ST down - CIN 20, NAVY 10 3.32 97.3% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 24

Started Drive at: NAVY 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.64 - 1.32 = 3.32

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.32)

Score Difference (End): 10 (14.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 20, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.3%

Win Probability (After): 98.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:51 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 24) Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 25 - CIN 20, NAVY 10 -0.93 97.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 25

Started Drive at: NAVY 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.71 - 4.63 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): 10 (14.63)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 20, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.9%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:11 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 11 at NAVY 25) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 5 yds to the Navy 20 - CIN 20, NAVY 10 0.10 97.6% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 20

Started Drive at: NAVY 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.80 - 3.70 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.70)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 20, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.6%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:35 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 6 at NAVY 20) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 6 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST down - CIN 20, NAVY 10 1.43 98.0% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 14

Started Drive at: NAVY 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.23 - 3.80 = 1.43

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.80)

Score Difference (End): 10 (15.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 20, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.0%

Win Probability (After): 98.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:02 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at NAVY 14) Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 15 - CIN 20, NAVY 10 -0.84 98.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 15

Started Drive at: NAVY 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.40 - 5.24 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): 10 (15.24)

Score Difference (End): 10 (14.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 20, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.4%

Win Probability (After): 98.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:28 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 11 at NAVY 15) Jerome Ford run for 12 yds to the Navy 3 for a 1ST down - CIN 20, NAVY 10 1.90 98.2% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 3

Started Drive at: NAVY 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.30 - 4.40 = 1.90

Score Difference (Before): 10 (14.40)

Score Difference (End): 10 (16.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 20, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:13 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & Goal at NAVY 3) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 3 yds for a TD, (Christian Lowery KICK) - CIN 27, NAVY 10 0.70 98.4% 0.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: NAVY 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.30 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 10 (16.30)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 20 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:13 ESPN team id 2426 (Kickoff at NAVY 35) Alex Bales kickoff for 56 yds for a touchback - CIN 27, NAVY 10 0.00 0.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - -0.40 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.40)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:04 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at NAVY 25) Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 11 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST down - CIN 27, NAVY 10 1.02 0.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 64

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - -0.40 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.40)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-16.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 1.1%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at NAVY 36) Isaac Ruoss run for 1 yd to the Navy 37 - CIN 27, NAVY 10 -0.66 0.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 63

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - 0.62 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.38)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.9%

Win Probability (After): 0.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 9 at NAVY 37) Anton Hall Jr. run for 3 yds to the Navy 40 - CIN 27, NAVY 10 -0.42 0.7% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 60

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.47 - -0.04 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.04)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:05 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 6 at NAVY 40) Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Navy 42 - CIN 27, NAVY 10 -1.22 0.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 58

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.69 - -0.47 = -1.22

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.47)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-18.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:23 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 4 at NAVY 42) Riley Riethman punt for 46 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 3 yds to the Cincy 45 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Holding (Deshawn Pace) to the Cincy 7 - CIN 27, NAVY 10 0.06 0.5% 0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 93

Started Drive at: NAVY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.62 - -1.72 = 0.06

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-18.69)

Score Difference (End): 17 (18.62)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 13:23 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 7) CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Leonard Taylor) to the Cincy 4 - CIN 27, NAVY 10 -0.41 99.4% -0.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 96

Started Drive at: CIN 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.22 - 1.63 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): 17 (18.63)

Score Difference (End): 17 (18.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:15 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 13 at CIN 4) Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 10 - CIN 27, NAVY 10 -0.12 99.4% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 90

Started Drive at: CIN 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 1.24 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): 17 (18.24)

Score Difference (End): 17 (18.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:52 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 7 at CIN 10) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete - CIN 27, NAVY 10 -0.89 99.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90

Started Drive at: CIN 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.09 - 0.98 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): 17 (17.98)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:43 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 7 at CIN 10) Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the Cincy 16 - CIN 27, NAVY 10 -0.38 99.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 84

Started Drive at: CIN 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.42 - -0.04 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): 17 (16.96)

Score Difference (End): 17 (16.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:01 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 1 at CIN 16) Mason Fletcher punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chance Warren at the Navy 42 - CIN 27, NAVY 10 -0.59 99.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 58

Started Drive at: CIN 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.95 - -0.37 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 17 (16.63)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-16.05)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 11:56 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at NAVY 42) Daniel Jones run for no gain to the Navy 42 - CIN 27, NAVY 10 -0.62 0.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: NAVY 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.40 - 1.03 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-15.97)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-16.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:37 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 10 at NAVY 42) Tai Lavatai pass complete to Kai Puailoa-Rojas for 26 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST down - CIN 27, NAVY 10 2.91 0.7% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 32

Started Drive at: NAVY 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 0.37 = 2.91

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.63)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-13.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:00 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at CIN 32) Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Cincy 27 - CIN 27, NAVY 10 0.11 1.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 27

Started Drive at: NAVY 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.42 - 3.31 = 0.11

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-13.69)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-13.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.1%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:24 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 5 at CIN 27) James Harris II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 24 - CIN 27, NAVY 10 -0.33 0.9% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 24

Started Drive at: NAVY 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.14 - 3.47 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-13.53)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-13.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.9%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:50 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 2 at CIN 24) Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the Cincy 17 for a 1ST down - CIN 27, NAVY 10 1.47 1.0% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 17

Started Drive at: NAVY 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.61 - 3.13 = 1.47

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-13.87)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-12.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:17 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at CIN 17) Isaac Ruoss run for 3 yds to the Cincy 14 - CIN 27, NAVY 10 -0.42 1.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 14

Started Drive at: NAVY 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.19 - 4.60 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-12.40)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-12.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 1.1%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:45 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 7 at CIN 14) Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the Cincy 14 - CIN 27, NAVY 10 -0.85 1.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: NAVY 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.32 - 4.17 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-12.83)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-13.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:00 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 7 at CIN 14) Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Cincy 10 - CIN 27, NAVY 10 -0.92 0.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 10

Started Drive at: NAVY 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.38 - 3.31 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-13.69)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-14.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.9%

Win Probability (After): 0.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:34 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 3 at CIN 10) Bijan Nichols 27 yd FG GOOD - CIN 27, NAVY 13 0.61 0.7% 1.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: NAVY 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.39 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-14.61)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 2.1%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 7:34 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 3 at NAVY 35) NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (Bryce Texeira) to the Navy 20 - CIN 27, NAVY 10 -0.99 1.0% -0.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80

Started Drive at: NAVY 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.54 - -1.55 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.55)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-19.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 7:34 ESPN team id 2132 (Kickoff at CIN 20) Ben Fee kickoff for 48 yds , Tre Tucker return for 18 yds to the 50 yard line - CIN 27, NAVY 10 1.24 99.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 50

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 1.86 = 1.24

Score Difference (Before): 17 (18.86)

Score Difference (End): 17 (20.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 7:19 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at 50) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 8 yds to the Navy 42 - CIN 27, NAVY 13 0.47 99.8% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 42

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.73 - 3.26 = 0.47

Score Difference (Before): 17 (20.26)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 10 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 6:27 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 2 at NAVY 42) Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 43 - CIN 27, NAVY 13 -0.87 99.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 43

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.91 - 3.77 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.77)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:43 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 3 at NAVY 43) Jerome Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 45 CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (Dylan O'Quinn) to the Cincy 40 - CIN 27, NAVY 13 -3.42 99.5% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 60

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.52 - 2.46 = -3.42

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.91)

Score Difference (End): 14 (13.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 98.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:29 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 20 at CIN 40) Mason Fletcher punt for 44 yds , Chance Warren returns for 4 yds to the Navy 44 NAVY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Chance Warren) to the Navy 10 - CIN 27, NAVY 13 1.18 99.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 90

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.67 - -0.54 = 1.18

Score Difference (Before): 14 (13.48)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.67)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:19 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at NAVY 10) Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the Navy 15 - CIN 27, NAVY 13 -0.11 0.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 85

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.41 - -0.30 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.30)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:02 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 5 at NAVY 15) Isaac Ruoss run for 5 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST down - CIN 27, NAVY 13 0.55 0.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 80

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.27 - -0.28 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.28)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:38 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at NAVY 20) Tai Lavatai pass complete to Daniel Jones for 1 yd to the Navy 21 - CIN 27, NAVY 13 -0.47 0.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 79

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - 0.28 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.72)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:08 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 9 at NAVY 21) Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for no gain to the Navy 21 - CIN 27, NAVY 13 -0.71 0.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 79

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.85 - -0.13 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.13)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:30 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 9 at NAVY 21) Tyger Goslin run for 5 yds to the Navy 26 - CIN 27, NAVY 13 -0.78 0.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 74

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.46 - -0.68 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.68)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:00 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 4 at NAVY 26) Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for 12 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST down - CIN 27, NAVY 13 2.72 0.4% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 62

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - -1.26 = 2.72

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.26)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:32 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at NAVY 38) Tai Lavatai pass complete to Carlinos Acie for 7 yds to the Navy 45 - CIN 27, NAVY 13 0.11 0.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 55

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.66 - 1.55 = 0.11

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.45)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:20 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 3 at NAVY 45) Tai Lavatai pass incomplete - CIN 27, NAVY 13 -0.58 0.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 1.72 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.28)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:11 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 3 at NAVY 45) Chance Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 44 - CIN 27, NAVY 13 -1.13 0.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 56

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 1.17 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.83)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:10 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 4 at NAVY 44) Timeout NAVY, clock 02:10 - CIN 27, NAVY 13 0.00 0.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 0.05 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.95)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:04 ESPN team id 2426 (4th & 4 at NAVY 44) Isaac Ruoss run for 7 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST down - CIN 27, NAVY 13 1.94 0.3% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 49

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.01 - 0.08 = 1.94

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.92)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:00 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at CIN 49) Tai Lavatai pass complete to Carlinos Acie for 8 yds to the Cincy 41 - CIN 27, NAVY 13 0.29 0.5% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 41

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.31 - 2.02 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.98)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:41 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 2 at CIN 41) Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 46 - CIN 27, NAVY 13 -0.84 0.5% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 46

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.23 - 2.07 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.93)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:40 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 7 at CIN 46) Timeout NAVY, clock 01:40 - CIN 27, NAVY 13 0.00 0.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.23 - 1.23 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.77)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:31 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 7 at CIN 46) Tai Lavatai pass complete to Chance Warren for 17 yds to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST down - CIN 27, NAVY 13 2.01 0.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 29

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.07 - 1.05 = 2.01

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.95)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:20 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at CIN 29) CINCINNATI Penalty, Roughing Passer (Marcus Brown) to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST down - CIN 27, NAVY 13 1.25 0.5% 0.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 15

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.27 - 3.03 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.97)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:16 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at CIN 15) Tai Lavatai pass incomplete - CIN 27, NAVY 13 -0.45 0.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.74 - 4.20 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.80)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:07 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 10 at CIN 15) CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ahmad Gardner) to the Cincy 2 for a 1ST down - CIN 27, NAVY 13 2.19 0.7% 0.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 2

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.95 - 3.76 = 2.19

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.24)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-8.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 1.1%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:57 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & Goal at CIN 2) Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Cincy 1 - CIN 27, NAVY 13 -0.08 0.9% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 1

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.87 - 5.95 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-8.05)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-8.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 13

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.9%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:50 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & Goal at CIN 1) Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) - CIN 27, NAVY 20 1.16 1.3% 1.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: NAVY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.84 = 1.16

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-8.16)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 20

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 2.3%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 13 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:48 ESPN team id 2132 (Kickoff at CIN 35) Daniel Davies on-side kick recovered by NAVY at the Navy 47 - CIN 27, NAVY 20 0.73 99.0% -24.2%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 53

Started Drive at: NAVY 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.31 - 0.59 = 0.73

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.59)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.31)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.0%

Win Probability (After): 74.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:40 ESPN team id 2426 (1st & 10 at NAVY 47) Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the Navy 47 - CIN 27, NAVY 20 -0.07 2.4% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: NAVY 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 1.10 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.90)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.4%

Win Probability (After): 2.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:32 ESPN team id 2426 (2nd & 10 at NAVY 47) TEAM pass incomplete - CIN 27, NAVY 20 -0.22 2.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: NAVY 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.78 - 1.00 = -0.22

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.00)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.4%

Win Probability (After): 2.3%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:25 ESPN team id 2426 (3rd & 10 at NAVY 47) Tai Lavatai pass intercepted Arquon Bush return for 1 yd to the Cincy 44 - CIN 27, NAVY 20 -1.65 2.1% -1.2%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 56

Started Drive at: NAVY 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.09 - 0.57 = -1.65

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.43)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.09)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 44) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 43 - CIN 27, NAVY 20 0.32 97.8% 2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 57

Started Drive at: CIN 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.48 - 0.16 = 0.32

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.16)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 27, NAVY 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0