W Michigan 15 @ Toledo 34

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 5.24 | Odds: WMU -1.5, O/U 54.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 2711 ESPN team id 2649
Total Plays 7977
Total EPA -14.430.31
  Offensive EPA -14.234.82
  Special Teams EPA -1.02-5.20
  Penalty EPA 0.810.7
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 0.01-0.01
Production ESPN team id 2711 ESPN team id 2649
Scrimmage Plays 6765
  Yards 431345
  Yards/Play 6.435.31
  EPA -14.234.82
  EPA/Play -0.210.07
Passes 29 (43%)26 (40%)
  Yards 216138
  Yards/Play 7.455.31
  EPA -0.022.33
  EPA/Play 0.000.09
Rushes 37 (55%)39 (60%)
  Yards 180207
  Yards/Play 4.865.31
  EPA -6.562.48
  EPA/Play -0.180.06
Rushing ESPN team id 2711 ESPN team id 2649
Scrimmage Plays 6765
Rushes 37 (55%)39 (60%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 1 (3%)0 (0%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 0 (0%)0 (0%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 7 (19%)8 (21%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 12 (32%)18 (46%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 22 (59%)17 (44%)
OL Line Yards 74.341.7
  Per Carry 2.011.07
Highlight Yards 35.580
  Per Rush Opportunity 1.614.71
Explosiveness ESPN team id 2711 ESPN team id 2649
Total Plays 7977
Scrimmage Plays 6765
Explosive Plays 5 (7%)6 (9%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 4 (14%)4 (15%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 1 (3%)2 (5%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -29.80-15.38
  EPA/Play -0.48-0.26
  When Passing -13.72-12.64
    EPA/Play -0.47-0.49
  When Rushing -8.44-2.74
    EPA/Play -0.23-0.07
Situational ESPN team id 2711 ESPN team id 2649
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 27 (40%)25 (38%)
  When Passing 11 (38%)9 (35%)
  When Rushing 16 (43%)16 (41%)
  On Standard Downs 22 (47%)16 (44%)
  On Passing Downs 5 (25%)9 (31%)
  On Early Downs 21 (43%)19 (38%)
  On Late Downs 6 (33%)6 (40%)
  During "Middle 8" 5 (45%)3 (33%)
Early Downs 4950
  First Downs Created 12 (24%)12 (24%)
  EPA -0.80-6.39
  EPA/Play -0.02-0.13
  Passes 19 (39%)15 (30%)
  Rushes 30 (61%)35 (70%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 7 (37%)5 (33%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 14 (47%)14 (40%)
"Middle 8" Plays 119
  EPA 3.94-1.06
  EPA/play 0.36-0.12
  Passes 4 (36%)5 (56%)
  Rushes 7 (64%)4 (44%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 2 (50%)2 (40%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 3 (43%)1 (25%)
Drives ESPN team id 2711 ESPN team id 2649
Total 1212
Avg Starting Field Position Own 23Own 31
Plays/Drive 7.277.15
Yards/Drive 40.9635.68
Available Yards % 53%52%
Defensive ESPN team id 2711 ESPN team id 2649
Scrimmage Plays 6567
Stop Rate 49%61%
Havoc Plays Created 7 (11%)3 (4%)
  Passing 3 (12%)2 (7%)
  Rushing 4 (10%)1 (3%)
TFLs Generated 73
  Passing 32
  Rushing 41
Sacks Generated 3 (12%)2 (7%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 00
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 2711 ESPN team id 2649
Turnovers 30
  Fumbles 30
  Fumbles Lost 30
  Fumbles Recovered 00
  Interceptions 00
Turnover Margin -33
Expected Turnovers 1.51.5
Expected Turnover Margin 0.00.0
Turnover Luck (pts) -15.015.0
Special Teams ESPN team id 2711 ESPN team id 2649
Total Plays 12 12
Total EPA -1.02 -5.2
  Field Goal EPA 0.46 -0.89
  Punting EPA -3.39 -1.96
  Kickoff Return EPA 1.91 -2.35

Western Michigan [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Kaleb Eleby 14/27, 216 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 2 Scks, 73.8 xQBR 7.45 0.00 -0.02 38% 16.0%
Rush attempts
Kaleb Eleby 7 carries, 39 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.57 0.26 1.82 29% 5.0%
Lucas Hartings 2 carries, 25 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.50 0.10 0.20 50% 0.0%
Sean Tyler 9 carries, 46 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.11 -0.04 -0.38 56% 2.0%
Jaxson Kincaide 10 carries, 42 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.20 -0.19 -1.90 50% -6.0%
La'Darius Jefferson 9 carries, 28 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 3.11 -0.70 -6.30 33% -14.0%
Pass targets
Skyy Moore 8 catches (8 targets), 128 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.00 1.32 10.60 88% 26.0%
Jaylen Hall 4 catches (4 targets), 72 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 18.00 1.85 7.41 75% 16.0%
Sean Tyler 2 catches (2 targets), 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 1.09 2.18 50% 6.0%

Toledo [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Dequan Finn 8/23, 138 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 3 Scks, 52.1 xQBR 5.31 0.09 2.33 35% 7.0%
Rush attempts
Dequan Finn 9 carries, 52 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.78 0.39 3.50 44% 3.0%
Jacquez Stuart 6 carries, 27 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.50 0.06 0.36 33% 2.0%
Bryant Koback 17 carries, 100 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.88 -0.03 -0.44 47% 7.0%
Micah Kelly 7 carries, 28 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.13 -0.93 29% -1.0%
Pass targets
Danzel McKinley-Lewis 1 catch (1 target), 34 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 34.00 6.60 6.60 100% 29.0%
Devin Maddox 3 catches (3 targets), 32 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.67 1.65 4.96 100% 5.0%
Isaiah Winstead 2 catches (2 targets), 29 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.50 2.01 4.02 100% 6.0%
Bryce Mitchell 1 catch (1 target), 28 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 28.00 2.83 2.83 100% 9.0%
Jerjuan Newton 1 catch (1 target), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.00 0.84 0.84 100% 6.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q3 6:48 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 2 at WMU 33) Zachary Ford 35 Yd Fumble Return (Thomas Cluckey Kick) - WMU 15, TOL 27 -7.65 36.7% -20.6%

Play Type: Fumble Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 99

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 0.65 = -7.65

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.35)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WMU 15, TOL 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.7%

Win Probability (After): 16.2%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 20 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:08 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 14 at WMU 34) Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 34 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) - WMU 15, TOL 20 6.60 37.1% 28.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.40 = 6.60

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.60)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 20

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.1%

Win Probability (After): 65.8%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:56 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 13 at WMU 22) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 37 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST down - WMU 0, TOL 3 4.78 47.6% 9.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 41

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.22 - -1.56 = 4.78

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.56)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.6%

Win Probability (After): 57.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:39 ESPN team id 2711 (4th & 1 at WMU 46) La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the WMich 46 - WMU 15, TOL 27 -3.71 17.0% -6.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 46

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.57 - 0.14 = -3.71

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.86)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.57)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WMU 15, TOL 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.0%

Win Probability (After): 10.1%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 3:12 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 19 at TOL 47) Dequan Finn run for 19 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST down - WMU 0, TOL 3 3.23 56.9% 6.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 34

Started Drive at: TOL 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.93 - 0.71 = 3.23

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.71)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.9%

Win Probability (After): 63.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 10 at TOL 34) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 27 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST down - WMU 0, TOL 6 3.12 44.9% 8.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 7

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.31 - 2.19 = 3.12

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.81)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-0.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.9%

Win Probability (After): 53.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:01 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at TOL 43) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 39 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST down - WMU 9, TOL 13 3.11 50.4% 10.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 4

Started Drive at: WMU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.35 - 2.24 = 3.11

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.76)

Score Difference (End): -4 (1.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 9, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.4%

Win Probability (After): 61.0%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:13 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 12 at WMU 23) Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 20 yds to the WMich 3 for a 1ST down - WMU 15, TOL 27 2.92 93.4% 2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 3

Started Drive at: WMU 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.88 - 2.96 = 2.92

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.96)

Score Difference (End): 12 (17.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 27

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.4%

Win Probability (After): 95.7%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:46 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at WMU 28) Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 28 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) - WMU 3, TOL 13 2.83 64.1% 9.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.17 = 2.83

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.17)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 3, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.1%

Win Probability (After): 73.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 6 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 10 at WMU 27) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Sean Tyler for 14 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST down - WMU 15, TOL 13 2.68 59.8% 5.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 59

Started Drive at: WMU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.06 - -0.62 = 2.68

Score Difference (Before): 2 (1.38)

Score Difference (End): 2 (4.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.8%

Win Probability (After): 65.6%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q3 8:08 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 14 at WMU 34) Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 34 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) - WMU 15, TOL 20 6.60 37.1% 28.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.40 = 6.60

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.60)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 20

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.1%

Win Probability (After): 65.8%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:48 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 2 at WMU 33) Zachary Ford 35 Yd Fumble Return (Thomas Cluckey Kick) - WMU 15, TOL 27 -7.65 36.7% -20.6%

Play Type: Fumble Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 99

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 0.65 = -7.65

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.35)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WMU 15, TOL 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.7%

Win Probability (After): 16.2%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 20 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:57 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 9 at WMU 15) Thomas Cluckey 33 yd FG GOOD - WMU 0, TOL 6 0.41 51.9% 12.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 65

Started Drive at: TOL 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.59 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.59)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.9%

Win Probability (After): 64.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 12:09 ESPN team id 2711 (4th & 2 at WMU 12) Nick Mihalic punt for 41 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 32 yds to the WMich 16 - WMU 0, TOL 0 -2.67 52.9% -10.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 16

Started Drive at: WMU 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.99 - -2.31 = -2.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.31)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.99)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WMU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.9%

Win Probability (After): 42.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:01 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at TOL 43) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 39 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST down - WMU 9, TOL 13 3.11 50.4% 10.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 4

Started Drive at: WMU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.35 - 2.24 = 3.11

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.76)

Score Difference (End): -4 (1.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 9, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.4%

Win Probability (After): 61.0%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:56 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 13 at WMU 22) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 37 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST down - WMU 0, TOL 3 4.78 47.6% 9.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 41

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.22 - -1.56 = 4.78

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.56)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.6%

Win Probability (After): 57.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:12 ESPN team id 2711 (4th & 5 at TOL 43) Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete - WMU 0, TOL 3 -2.30 48.8% -9.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 57

Started Drive at: TOL 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.59 - -0.29 = -2.30

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.29)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.59)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.8%

Win Probability (After): 39.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 8:46 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at WMU 28) Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 28 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) - WMU 3, TOL 13 2.83 64.1% 9.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.17 = 2.83

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.17)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 3, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.1%

Win Probability (After): 73.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 6 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 10 at TOL 34) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 27 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST down - WMU 0, TOL 6 3.12 44.9% 8.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 7

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.31 - 2.19 = 3.12

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.81)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-0.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.9%

Win Probability (After): 53.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:20 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 2 at TOL 14) Kaleb Eleby run for 14 yds for a TD, (Nick Mihalic PAT MISSED) - WMU 9, TOL 13 1.88 35.2% 8.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 99

Started Drive at: WMU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 4.12 = 1.88

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.88)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 9, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.2%

Away Score: 3 (9) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 10:56 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 5 at WMU 11) Thomas Cluckey 29 yd FG GOOD - WMU 0, TOL 3 0.22 52.3% 0.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 65

Started Drive at: WMU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.78 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.78)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.3%

Win Probability (After): 52.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:57 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 9 at WMU 15) Thomas Cluckey 33 yd FG GOOD - WMU 0, TOL 6 0.41 51.9% 12.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 65

Started Drive at: TOL 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.59 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.59)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.9%

Win Probability (After): 64.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:25 ESPN team id 2711 (4th & Goal at TOL 9) Nick Mihalic 26 yd FG GOOD - WMU 3, TOL 6 0.46 43.6% 2.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 65

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.54 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.46)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 3, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.6%

Win Probability (After): 46.4%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 8:46 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at WMU 28) Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 28 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) - WMU 3, TOL 13 2.83 64.1% 9.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.17 = 2.83

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.17)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 3, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.1%

Win Probability (After): 73.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 6 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:20 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 2 at TOL 14) Kaleb Eleby run for 14 yds for a TD, (Nick Mihalic PAT MISSED) - WMU 9, TOL 13 1.88 35.2% 8.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 99

Started Drive at: WMU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 4.12 = 1.88

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.88)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 9, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.2%

Away Score: 3 (9) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:36 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & Goal at TOL 4) Sean Tyler run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Mihalic PAT MISSED) - WMU 15, TOL 13 0.31 61.4% 3.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: WMU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 5.69 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): -4 (1.69)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.4%

Win Probability (After): 64.8%

Away Score: 9 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:08 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 14 at WMU 34) Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 34 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) - WMU 15, TOL 20 6.60 37.1% 28.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.40 = 6.60

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.60)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 20

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.1%

Win Probability (After): 65.8%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:48 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 2 at WMU 33) Zachary Ford 35 Yd Fumble Return (Thomas Cluckey Kick) - WMU 15, TOL 27 -7.65 36.7% -20.6%

Play Type: Fumble Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 99

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 0.65 = -7.65

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.35)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WMU 15, TOL 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.7%

Win Probability (After): 16.2%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 20 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:54 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & Goal at WMU 3) Micah Kelly run for 3 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) - WMU 15, TOL 34 0.68 95.6% 2.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: WMU 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.32 = 0.68

Score Difference (Before): 12 (18.32)

Score Difference (End): 19 (19.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.6%

Win Probability (After): 98.6%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 27 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 14:55 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 27) Bryant Koback run for 11 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST down - WMU 0, TOL 0 0.65 49.1% 2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 62

Started Drive at: TOL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 1.28 = 0.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.1%

Win Probability (After): 51.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:55 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 38) Dequan Finn pass incomplete - WMU 0, TOL 0 -0.67 51.6% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: TOL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.31 - 1.98 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.6%

Win Probability (After): 49.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:55 ESPN team id 2649 (Kickoff at TOL 35) Nick Mihalic kickoff for 65 yds , return for no gain to the Toled 0 - WMU 0, TOL 0 -1.93 47.9% -4.2%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.99 - 0.94 = -1.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.94)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.9%

Win Probability (After): 43.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:32 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 9 at WMU 46) Dequan Finn pass incomplete - WMU 0, TOL 0 -2.02 48.7% -4.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: TOL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.48 - 1.54 = -2.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.7%

Win Probability (After): 44.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:32 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 9 at WMU 46) Dequan Finn pass incomplete - WMU 0, TOL 0 -0.97 52.3% -3.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: TOL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.54 - 2.51 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.51)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.3%

Win Probability (After): 48.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:16 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 9 at WMU 46) Bailey Flint punt for 42 yds, downed at the WMich 4 - WMU 0, TOL 0 0.72 45.4% -2.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 96

Started Drive at: TOL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - -0.35 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.38)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WMU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.4%

Win Probability (After): 42.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 13:16 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at WMU 4) Sean Tyler run for 8 yds to the WMich 12 - WMU 0, TOL 0 0.55 57.7% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 88

Started Drive at: WMU 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.39 - -0.16 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.7%

Win Probability (After): 58.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:16 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & 2 at WMU 12) Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete - WMU 0, TOL 0 -1.00 58.9% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 88

Started Drive at: WMU 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.62 - 0.39 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.39)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.9%

Win Probability (After): 56.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:16 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 2 at WMU 12) Sean Tyler run for no gain to the WMich 12 - WMU 0, TOL 0 -1.70 56.9% -3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 88

Started Drive at: WMU 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.31 - -0.62 = -1.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.9%

Win Probability (After): 53.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:09 ESPN team id 2711 (4th & 2 at WMU 12) Nick Mihalic punt for 41 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 32 yds to the WMich 16 - WMU 0, TOL 0 -2.67 52.9% -10.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 16

Started Drive at: WMU 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.99 - -2.31 = -2.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.31)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.99)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WMU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.9%

Win Probability (After): 42.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 12:09 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at WMU 16) Bryant Koback run for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 20 - WMU 0, TOL 0 -1.44 55.9% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 20

Started Drive at: WMU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 5.06 = -1.44

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.9%

Win Probability (After): 54.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:09 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 14 at WMU 20) Dequan Finn pass incomplete - WMU 0, TOL 0 -0.76 54.2% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: WMU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.86 - 3.61 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.61)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.2%

Win Probability (After): 52.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:09 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 14 at WMU 20) Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the WMich 11 - WMU 0, TOL 0 -0.09 52.1% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 11

Started Drive at: WMU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.77 - 2.86 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.1%

Win Probability (After): 52.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:56 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 5 at WMU 11) Thomas Cluckey 29 yd FG GOOD - WMU 0, TOL 3 0.22 52.3% 0.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 65

Started Drive at: WMU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.78 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.78)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.3%

Win Probability (After): 52.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:56 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at WMU 25) WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Wesley French) to the WMich 20 - WMU 0, TOL 3 -0.74 52.9% -3.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 80

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - 0.64 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.36)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.9%

Win Probability (After): 49.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:56 ESPN team id 2711 (Kickoff at WMU 35) Thomas Cluckey kickoff for 63 yds - WMU 0, TOL 3 0.00 52.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 0.64 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.36)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.9%

Win Probability (After): 52.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:56 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 15 at WMU 20) La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the WMich 22 - WMU 0, TOL 3 -0.41 49.7% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 78

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.51 - -0.10 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.10)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.7%

Win Probability (After): 49.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:56 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & 13 at WMU 22) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for no gain to the WMich 22 - WMU 0, TOL 3 -1.05 49.8% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.56 - -0.51 = -1.05

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.51)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.8%

Win Probability (After): 47.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:56 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 13 at WMU 22) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 37 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST down - WMU 0, TOL 3 4.78 47.6% 9.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 41

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.22 - -1.56 = 4.78

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.56)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.6%

Win Probability (After): 57.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:56 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at TOL 41) Kaleb Eleby run for no gain to the Toled 41 - WMU 0, TOL 3 -0.61 57.5% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.61 - 3.22 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.22)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.5%

Win Probability (After): 56.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:56 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & 10 at TOL 41) La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Toled 39 - WMU 0, TOL 3 -0.92 56.6% -2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 39

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.69 - 2.61 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.39)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.6%

Win Probability (After): 53.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:56 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 8 at TOL 39) Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete - WMU 0, TOL 3 -1.96 53.9% -3.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.27 - 1.69 = -1.96

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.31)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.9%

Win Probability (After): 50.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:17 ESPN team id 2711 (4th & 8 at TOL 39) Nick Mihalic punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 15 - WMU 0, TOL 3 -0.87 49.8% -2.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 85

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.01 - -0.14 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.14)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.01)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.8%

Win Probability (After): 47.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 7:17 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 15) Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the Toled 22 - WMU 0, TOL 3 0.34 54.1% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 78

Started Drive at: TOL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 1.01 = 0.34

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.01)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.1%

Win Probability (After): 54.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:17 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 3 at TOL 22) Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST down - WMU 0, TOL 3 0.33 54.4% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 73

Started Drive at: TOL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.68 - 1.35 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.35)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.4%

Win Probability (After): 55.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:17 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 27) Dequan Finn pass incomplete - WMU 0, TOL 3 -0.75 55.3% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: TOL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.93 - 1.68 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.68)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.3%

Win Probability (After): 54.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:17 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 10 at TOL 27) Jacquez Stuart run for 11 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST down - WMU 0, TOL 3 1.46 54.0% 2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 62

Started Drive at: TOL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 0.93 = 1.46

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.93)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.0%

Win Probability (After): 56.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:17 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 38) Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the Toled 38 - WMU 0, TOL 3 -0.63 56.2% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: TOL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.76 - 2.39 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.39)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.2%

Win Probability (After): 55.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:17 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 10 at TOL 38) TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Vitaliy Gurman) to the Toled 33 - WMU 0, TOL 3 -0.83 55.2% -1.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 67

Started Drive at: TOL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.93 - 1.76 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.76)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.2%

Win Probability (After): 53.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:17 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 15 at TOL 33) Dequan Finn sacked by Marshawn Kneeland and Ralph Holley for 0 yards to the Toled 30 - WMU 0, TOL 3 -1.09 53.5% -1.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 70

Started Drive at: TOL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.17 - 0.93 = -1.09

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.93)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.5%

Win Probability (After): 52.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:17 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 18 at TOL 30) Dequan Finn pass incomplete - WMU 0, TOL 3 -1.13 52.2% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: TOL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.29 - -0.17 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.83)

Score Difference (End): 3 (1.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.2%

Win Probability (After): 49.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:40 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 18 at TOL 30) Bailey Flint punt for 33 yds - WMU 0, TOL 3 -1.48 48.8% -4.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 48

Started Drive at: TOL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.82 - -1.33 = -1.48

Score Difference (Before): 3 (1.67)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.18)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.8%

Win Probability (After): 44.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:40 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at TOL 48) Jaxson Kincaide run for 6 yds to the Toled 42 - WMU 0, TOL 3 0.18 54.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 42

Started Drive at: TOL 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.97 - 2.78 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.22)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.8%

Win Probability (After): 54.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:40 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & 4 at TOL 42) Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete - WMU 0, TOL 3 -0.91 54.8% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 42

Started Drive at: TOL 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.05 - 2.97 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.03)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.8%

Win Probability (After): 52.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:16 ESPN team id 2711 (4th & 5 at TOL 43) Timeout WESTRN MICHIGAN, clock 03:16 - WMU 0, TOL 3 0.00 51.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 43

Started Drive at: TOL 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.05 - 2.05 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.95)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.3%

Win Probability (After): 51.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 3:16 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 4 at TOL 42) Jaxson Kincaide run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 43 - WMU 0, TOL 3 -2.33 52.8% -4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 43

Started Drive at: TOL 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.29 - 2.04 = -2.33

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.96)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.8%

Win Probability (After): 48.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:12 ESPN team id 2711 (4th & 5 at TOL 43) Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete - WMU 0, TOL 3 -2.30 48.8% -9.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 57

Started Drive at: TOL 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.59 - -0.29 = -2.30

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.29)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.59)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.8%

Win Probability (After): 39.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 3:12 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 43) Dequan Finn pass incomplete - WMU 0, TOL 3 -0.60 60.7% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: TOL 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.99 - 2.59 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.59)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.7%

Win Probability (After): 59.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:12 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 10 at TOL 43) Bryant Koback run for 13 yds to the WMich 44 for a 1ST down - WMU 0, TOL 3 1.42 59.9% 2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 44

Started Drive at: TOL 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - 1.99 = 1.42

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.99)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.9%

Win Probability (After): 62.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:12 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at WMU 44) Bryant Koback run for no gain to the WMich 44 - WMU 0, TOL 3 -0.63 62.8% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: TOL 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.78 - 3.41 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.41)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.8%

Win Probability (After): 61.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:12 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 10 at WMU 44) Dequan Finn sacked by Ali Fayad for 0 yards to the Toled 47 - WMU 0, TOL 3 -2.08 61.1% -4.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 53

Started Drive at: TOL 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.71 - 2.78 = -2.08

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.78)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.1%

Win Probability (After): 56.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:12 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 19 at TOL 47) Dequan Finn run for 19 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST down - WMU 0, TOL 3 3.23 56.9% 6.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 34

Started Drive at: TOL 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.93 - 0.71 = 3.23

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.71)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.9%

Win Probability (After): 63.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:12 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at WMU 34) Bryant Koback run for 18 yds to the WMich 16 for a 1ST down - WMU 0, TOL 3 1.14 63.4% 3.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 16

Started Drive at: TOL 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.07 - 3.93 = 1.14

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.93)

Score Difference (End): 3 (8.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.4%

Win Probability (After): 67.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:12 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at WMU 16) Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 6 yds to the WMich 10 - WMU 0, TOL 3 0.07 67.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 10

Started Drive at: TOL 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.14 - 5.07 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.07)

Score Difference (End): 3 (8.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.1%

Win Probability (After): 67.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:12 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 4 at WMU 10) Micah Kelly run for no gain to the WMich 10 - WMU 0, TOL 3 -0.76 67.1% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: TOL 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.39 - 5.14 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.14)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.1%

Win Probability (After): 65.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:05 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 4 at WMU 10) FINN, Dequan pass to the left complete for 10 yards to WINSTEAD, Isaiah caught at the WMU0 and advanced to the WMU0, TOUCHDOWN TOL, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY Before the snap, TOL Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the WMU10 to the WMU15. NO PLAY (replay the down). - WMU 0, TOL 3 -0.61 65.6% -2.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 15

Started Drive at: TOL 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.76 - 4.37 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.37)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.6%

Win Probability (After): 63.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 9 at WMU 15) Dequan Finn pass incomplete - WMU 0, TOL 3 -1.08 63.6% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: TOL 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 3.70 = -1.08

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.70)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.6%

Win Probability (After): 61.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 10 at TOL 38) Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 15 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST down - WMU 0, TOL 0 2.27 56.7% -3.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 47

Started Drive at: TOL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.13 - 0.86 = 2.27

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.7%

Win Probability (After): 53.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at WMU 47) Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the WMich 46 - WMU 0, TOL 0 -0.60 53.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 46

Started Drive at: TOL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.54 - 3.13 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.3%

Win Probability (After): 53.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:57 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 9 at WMU 15) Thomas Cluckey 33 yd FG GOOD - WMU 0, TOL 6 0.41 51.9% 12.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 65

Started Drive at: TOL 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.59 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.59)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.9%

Win Probability (After): 64.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (Kickoff at WMU 35) Thomas Cluckey kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - WMU 0, TOL 6 0.00 40.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - 0.82 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.18)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.9%

Win Probability (After): 40.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at WMU 25) Sean Tyler run for 4 yds to the WMich 29 - WMU 0, TOL 6 -0.06 40.9% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.76 - 0.82 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.18)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.9%

Win Probability (After): 40.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & 6 at WMU 29) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 26 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST down - WMU 0, TOL 6 2.21 40.6% 7.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 45

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.97 - 0.76 = 2.21

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.24)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.6%

Win Probability (After): 48.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at TOL 45) Sean Tyler run for 8 yds to the Toled 37 - WMU 0, TOL 6 0.61 48.3% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 37

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.58 - 2.97 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.03)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.3%

Win Probability (After): 49.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & 2 at TOL 37) La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST down - WMU 0, TOL 6 0.09 49.1% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 34

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.67 - 3.58 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.42)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.1%

Win Probability (After): 49.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at TOL 34) Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete - WMU 0, TOL 6 -0.57 49.5% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.10 - 3.67 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.33)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.5%

Win Probability (After): 48.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & 10 at TOL 34) La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the Toled 34 - WMU 0, TOL 6 -0.92 48.5% -3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.19 - 3.10 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.90)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 44.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 10 at TOL 34) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 27 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST down - WMU 0, TOL 6 3.12 44.9% 8.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 7

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.31 - 2.19 = 3.12

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.81)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-0.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.9%

Win Probability (After): 53.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & Goal at TOL 7) Sean Tyler run for 6 yds to the Toled 1 - WMU 0, TOL 6 0.67 54.7% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 1

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.18 - 5.52 = 0.67

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-0.48)

Score Difference (End): -6 (0.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.7%

Win Probability (After): 55.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & Goal at TOL 1) WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Ali Fayad) to the Toled 6 - WMU 0, TOL 6 -1.19 55.7% -3.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 6

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.00 - 6.18 = -1.19

Score Difference (Before): -6 (0.18)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.7%

Win Probability (After): 52.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & Goal at TOL 6) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 2 yds to the Toled 4 - WMU 0, TOL 6 -0.51 52.6% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 4

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 5.00 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-1.00)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-1.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 51.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:34 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & Goal at TOL 9) Timeout WESTRN MICHIGAN, clock 09:34 - WMU 0, TOL 6 0.00 48.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 4.49 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-1.51)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-1.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.3%

Win Probability (After): 48.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:34 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & Goal at TOL 4) WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Jacob Gideon) to the Toled 9 - WMU 0, TOL 6 -0.76 49.2% -1.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 9

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.77 - 4.53 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-1.47)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.2%

Win Probability (After): 47.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:34 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & Goal at TOL 9) Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete - WMU 0, TOL 6 -1.23 47.3% -3.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.54 - 3.77 = -1.23

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.23)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 0, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.3%

Win Probability (After): 43.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:25 ESPN team id 2711 (4th & Goal at TOL 9) Nick Mihalic 26 yd FG GOOD - WMU 3, TOL 6 0.46 43.6% 2.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 65

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.54 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.46)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 3, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.6%

Win Probability (After): 46.4%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:25 ESPN team id 2649 (Kickoff at TOL 35) Nick Mihalic kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - WMU 3, TOL 6 0.00 57.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.40 - 1.40 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.40)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 3, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.6%

Win Probability (After): 57.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:25 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 25) Micah Kelly run for 22 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST down - WMU 3, TOL 6 1.27 57.6% 2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 53

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.67 - 1.40 = 1.27

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.40)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 3, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.6%

Win Probability (After): 60.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:25 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 47) WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (Braden Fiske) to the WMich 28 for a 1ST down - WMU 3, TOL 6 1.57 60.3% 4.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 28

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.24 - 2.67 = 1.57

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.67)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 3, TOL 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.3%

Win Probability (After): 64.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:46 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at WMU 28) Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 28 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) - WMU 3, TOL 13 2.83 64.1% 9.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.17 = 2.83

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.17)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 3, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.1%

Win Probability (After): 73.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 6 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:41 ESPN team id 2711 (Kickoff at WMU 35) Thomas Cluckey kickoff for 64 yds , Bryce Nunnelly return for 16 yds to the WMich 17 - WMU 3, TOL 13 0.84 29.3% -0.5%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 83

Started Drive at: WMU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.41 - 0.57 = 0.84

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.43)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 3, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.3%

Win Probability (After): 28.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:41 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at WMU 17) La'Darius Jefferson run for 9 yds to the WMich 26 - WMU 3, TOL 13 0.66 28.6% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 74

Started Drive at: WMU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.87 - 0.21 = 0.66

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.79)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 3, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.6%

Win Probability (After): 29.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:41 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & 1 at WMU 26) La'Darius Jefferson run for 7 yds to the WMich 33 for a 1ST down - WMU 3, TOL 13 0.37 29.7% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 67

Started Drive at: WMU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.24 - 0.87 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.13)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 3, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.7%

Win Probability (After): 30.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:41 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at WMU 33) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 20 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST down - WMU 3, TOL 13 1.38 30.5% 1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 47

Started Drive at: WMU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.62 - 1.24 = 1.38

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.76)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 3, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.5%

Win Probability (After): 32.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:41 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at TOL 47) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 8 yds to the Toled 39 - WMU 3, TOL 13 0.59 32.3% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 39

Started Drive at: WMU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.21 - 2.62 = 0.59

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.38)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 3, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.3%

Win Probability (After): 33.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:41 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & 2 at TOL 39) Jaxson Kincaide run for 5 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST down - WMU 3, TOL 13 0.08 33.2% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 34

Started Drive at: WMU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.29 - 3.21 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.79)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 3, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.2%

Win Probability (After): 33.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:41 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at TOL 34) Jaxson Kincaide run for 7 yds to the Toled 27 - WMU 3, TOL 13 0.53 33.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 27

Started Drive at: WMU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.82 - 3.29 = 0.53

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.71)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 3, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.6%

Win Probability (After): 33.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:41 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & 3 at TOL 27) Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the Toled 26 - WMU 3, TOL 13 -0.50 33.7% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 26

Started Drive at: WMU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.33 - 3.82 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.18)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 3, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.7%

Win Probability (After): 33.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:41 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 2 at TOL 26) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 4 yds to the Toled 22 for a 1ST down - WMU 3, TOL 13 0.86 33.0% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 22

Started Drive at: WMU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.19 - 3.33 = 0.86

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.67)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 3, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.0%

Win Probability (After): 35.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:41 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at TOL 22) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 8 yds to the Toled 14 - WMU 3, TOL 13 0.56 35.2% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 14

Started Drive at: WMU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.75 - 4.19 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.81)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 3, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.2%

Win Probability (After): 35.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:41 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & 2 at TOL 14) Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete - WMU 3, TOL 13 -0.62 35.3% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: WMU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.13 - 4.75 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.25)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 3, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.3%

Win Probability (After): 34.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:20 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 2 at TOL 14) Kaleb Eleby run for 14 yds for a TD, (Nick Mihalic PAT MISSED) - WMU 9, TOL 13 1.88 35.2% 8.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 99

Started Drive at: WMU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 4.12 = 1.88

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.88)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 9, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.2%

Away Score: 3 (9) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:14 ESPN team id 2649 (Kickoff at TOL 35) Nick Mihalic kickoff for 56 yds , Bryce Mitchell return for 27 yds to the Toled 16 - WMU 9, TOL 13 -0.47 61.1% -1.3%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 84

Started Drive at: TOL 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.69 - 1.16 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.16)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 9, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.1%

Win Probability (After): 59.8%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:14 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 16) Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the Toled 17 - WMU 9, TOL 13 -0.47 59.8% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 83

Started Drive at: TOL 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.82 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.82)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 9, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.8%

Win Probability (After): 59.1%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:14 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 9 at TOL 17) Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the Toled 19 - WMU 9, TOL 13 -0.45 59.1% -3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 81

Started Drive at: TOL 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - 0.35 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.35)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 9, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.1%

Win Probability (After): 55.7%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:14 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 7 at TOL 19) Dequan Finn pass incomplete - WMU 9, TOL 13 -0.94 55.7% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 81

Started Drive at: TOL 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.04 - -0.10 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.90)

Score Difference (End): 4 (2.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 9, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.7%

Win Probability (After): 52.7%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:01 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 7 at TOL 19) Bailey Flint punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Bryce Nunnelly at the WMich 44 - WMU 9, TOL 13 -1.08 53.7% -3.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 56

Started Drive at: TOL 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.88 - -0.81 = -1.08

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.19)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.12)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WMU 9, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.7%

Win Probability (After): 50.1%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:01 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at WMU 44) Sean Tyler run for 13 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST down - WMU 9, TOL 13 0.41 49.5% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 43

Started Drive at: WMU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 1.82 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.18)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 9, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.5%

Win Probability (After): 50.4%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:01 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at TOL 43) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 39 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST down - WMU 9, TOL 13 3.11 50.4% 10.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 4

Started Drive at: WMU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.35 - 2.24 = 3.11

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.76)

Score Difference (End): -4 (1.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 9, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.4%

Win Probability (After): 61.0%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:36 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & Goal at TOL 4) Sean Tyler run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Mihalic PAT MISSED) - WMU 15, TOL 13 0.31 61.4% 3.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: WMU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 5.69 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): -4 (1.69)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.4%

Win Probability (After): 64.8%

Away Score: 9 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:30 ESPN team id 2649 (Kickoff at TOL 35) Nick Mihalic kickoff for 62 yds , Jacquez Stuart return for 21 yds to the Toled 24 - WMU 15, TOL 13 0.04 40.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 76

Started Drive at: TOL 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.85 - 0.81 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.19)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.3%

Win Probability (After): 40.0%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:30 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 24) Bryant Koback run for 13 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST down - WMU 15, TOL 13 0.51 40.3% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 63

Started Drive at: TOL 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.24 - 0.73 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.27)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.3%

Win Probability (After): 40.8%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:30 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 37) Dequan Finn pass incomplete - WMU 15, TOL 13 -0.29 40.8% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: TOL 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 1.24 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.76)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.8%

Win Probability (After): 40.0%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:05 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 9 at TOL 38) Timeout WESTRN MICHIGAN, clock 01:05 - WMU 15, TOL 13 0.00 38.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: TOL 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 0.95 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.05)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.7%

Win Probability (After): 38.7%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:05 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 10 at TOL 37) Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the Toled 38 - WMU 15, TOL 13 -0.24 40.2% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 62

Started Drive at: TOL 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.76 - 1.01 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.99)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.2%

Win Probability (After): 38.7%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:16 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 22 at TOL 25) Timeout TOLEDO, clock 00:16 - WMU 15, TOL 13 0.00 35.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: TOL 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.76 - 0.76 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.24)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.2%

Win Probability (After): 35.2%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:16 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 9 at TOL 38) Dequan Finn sacked by Zaire Barnes for 0 yards to the Toled 25 - WMU 15, TOL 13 -0.46 38.3% -4.8%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 75

Started Drive at: TOL 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.08 - 0.38 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.62)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.3%

Win Probability (After): 33.5%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:08 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at WMU 41) Dequan Finn pass incomplete - WMU 15, TOL 13 0.18 43.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41

Started Drive at: WMU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 0.95 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.05)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.7%

Win Probability (After): 43.5%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:08 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 10 at WMU 41) Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 9 yds to the WMich 32 - WMU 15, TOL 13 1.10 43.5% 3.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 32

Started Drive at: WMU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.05 - 0.95 = 1.10

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.05)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.5%

Win Probability (After): 47.1%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 1 at WMU 32) Thomas Cluckey 50 yd FG MISSED - WMU 15, TOL 13 -1.52 44.6% -7.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 68

Started Drive at: WMU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.11 - 1.52 = -1.52

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.48)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.11)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.6%

Win Probability (After): 36.7%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (Kickoff at WMU 35) Thomas Cluckey kickoff for 63 yds , Ryan Kilburg return for 10 yds to the WMich 12 - WMU 15, TOL 13 1.07 63.3% 1.7%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 88

Started Drive at: WMU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 0.88 = 1.07

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.88)

Score Difference (End): 2 (3.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.3%

Win Probability (After): 65.0%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at WMU 12) Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete - WMU 15, TOL 13 -0.85 61.8% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 88

Started Drive at: WMU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.71 - 0.15 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.15)

Score Difference (End): 2 (1.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.8%

Win Probability (After): 61.1%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 10 at WMU 12) ELEBY, Kaleb pass to the left incomplete intended for TORRES, Anthony thrown to the WMU40. PENALTY TOL Pass Interference on MITCHELL, Quinyon enforced 15 yards to the WMU27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - WMU 15, TOL 13 2.66 58.3% 5.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 73

Started Drive at: WMU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.16 - -1.50 = 2.66

Score Difference (Before): 2 (0.50)

Score Difference (End): 2 (3.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.3%

Win Probability (After): 64.1%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at WMU 27) Sean Tyler run for no gain to the WMich 27 - WMU 15, TOL 13 -0.86 64.1% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: WMU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.30 - 1.16 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 2 (3.16)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.1%

Win Probability (After): 61.8%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & 10 at WMU 27) Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete - WMU 15, TOL 13 -0.92 61.8% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: WMU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.62 - 0.30 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.30)

Score Difference (End): 2 (1.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.8%

Win Probability (After): 59.8%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 10 at WMU 27) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Sean Tyler for 14 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST down - WMU 15, TOL 13 2.68 59.8% 5.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 59

Started Drive at: WMU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.06 - -0.62 = 2.68

Score Difference (Before): 2 (1.38)

Score Difference (End): 2 (4.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.8%

Win Probability (After): 65.6%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at WMU 41) ELEBY, Kaleb scrambles to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the WMU44 (JOHNSON, Desjuan). PENALTY WMU Holding on FRENCH, Wesley enforced 10 yards from the WMU41 to the WMU31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - WMU 15, TOL 13 -0.94 65.6% -2.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 69

Started Drive at: WMU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 2.06 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): 2 (4.06)

Score Difference (End): 2 (3.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.6%

Win Probability (After): 63.1%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:57 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 20 at WMU 31) Kaleb Eleby run for 5 yds to the WMich 36 - WMU 15, TOL 13 -0.48 63.1% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 64

Started Drive at: WMU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - 1.12 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 2 (3.12)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.1%

Win Probability (After): 62.6%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:54 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 12 at WMU 39) Timeout TOLEDO, clock 11:54 - WMU 15, TOL 13 0.00 62.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: WMU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - 0.65 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.65)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.7%

Win Probability (After): 62.7%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 11:54 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & 15 at WMU 36) La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the WMich 39 - WMU 15, TOL 13 -0.75 67.0% -3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 61

Started Drive at: WMU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.17 - 0.92 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.92)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.0%

Win Probability (After): 63.9%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 11:54 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 12 at WMU 39) QB Keeper ELEBY, Kaleb rush to the right for a gain of 13 yards to the TOL48 (WOMACK, Samuel;HOOK, Maxen). PENALTY WMU Holding on JEFFERSON, La'Darius enforced 10 yards from the WMU39 to the WMU29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - WMU 15, TOL 13 -0.80 63.9% -1.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 71

Started Drive at: WMU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.63 - 0.17 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.17)

Score Difference (End): 2 (1.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.9%

Win Probability (After): 62.5%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 11:54 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 22 at WMU 29) Kaleb Eleby run for 5 yds to the WMich 34 - WMU 15, TOL 13 -0.59 62.5% -2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 66

Started Drive at: WMU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.22 - -0.63 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 2 (1.37)

Score Difference (End): 2 (0.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.5%

Win Probability (After): 59.9%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 10:36 ESPN team id 2711 (4th & 17 at WMU 34) Nick Mihalic punt for 46 yds , Devin Maddox returns for no gain to the Toled 20 - WMU 15, TOL 13 0.40 59.1% -0.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 80

Started Drive at: WMU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.66 - -1.07 = 0.40

Score Difference (Before): 2 (0.93)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.34)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.1%

Win Probability (After): 58.3%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:36 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 20) Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 20 - WMU 15, TOL 13 -0.66 40.1% -2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80

Started Drive at: TOL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 0.64 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.36)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.1%

Win Probability (After): 37.6%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:36 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 10 at TOL 20) Dequan Finn pass incomplete - WMU 15, TOL 13 -0.98 37.6% -3.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80

Started Drive at: TOL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.99 - -0.02 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-2.02)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.6%

Win Probability (After): 34.0%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:36 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 10 at TOL 20) Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 11 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST down - WMU 15, TOL 13 2.62 34.0% 7.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 69

Started Drive at: TOL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.62 - -0.99 = 2.62

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-2.99)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.0%

Win Probability (After): 42.0%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:36 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 31) Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 15 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST down - WMU 15, TOL 13 0.84 42.0% 5.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 54

Started Drive at: TOL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 1.62 = 0.84

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.38)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.0%

Win Probability (After): 47.9%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:36 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 46) Bryant Koback run for 24 yds to the WMich 30 for a 1ST down - WMU 15, TOL 13 1.53 47.9% 5.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 30

Started Drive at: TOL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.99 - 2.47 = 1.53

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.47)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.9%

Win Probability (After): 53.4%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:36 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at WMU 30) Dequan Finn run for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 34 - WMU 15, TOL 13 -1.43 53.4% -5.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 34

Started Drive at: TOL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.56 - 3.99 = -1.43

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.99)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.4%

Win Probability (After): 48.2%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:36 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 14 at WMU 34) Dequan Finn pass incomplete TOLEDO Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on ROSI, Drew ( Yards) declined - WMU 15, TOL 13 -1.08 48.2% -5.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: TOL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.49 - 2.56 = -1.08

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.56)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.2%

Win Probability (After): 42.3%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:36 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 14 at WMU 34) Dequan Finn pass incomplete - WMU 15, TOL 13 -1.11 42.3% -3.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: TOL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 1.49 = -1.11

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.51)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 13

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.3%

Win Probability (After): 38.8%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:08 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 14 at WMU 34) Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 34 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) - WMU 15, TOL 20 6.60 37.1% 28.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.40 = 6.60

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.60)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 20

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.1%

Win Probability (After): 65.8%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 13 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 8:08 ESPN team id 2711 (Kickoff at WMU 35) Thomas Cluckey kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - WMU 15, TOL 20 0.00 38.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.77 - 0.77 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.23)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-4.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.9%

Win Probability (After): 38.9%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 8:08 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at WMU 25) Jaxson Kincaide run for 6 yds to the WMich 31 - WMU 15, TOL 20 0.43 38.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 0.77 = 0.43

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.23)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-3.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.9%

Win Probability (After): 38.9%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 8:08 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & 4 at WMU 31) Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the WMich 33 - WMU 15, TOL 20 -0.58 38.9% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 67

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.62 - 1.20 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-3.80)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-4.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.9%

Win Probability (After): 37.3%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 6:48 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 2 at WMU 33) Zachary Ford 35 Yd Fumble Return (Thomas Cluckey Kick) - WMU 15, TOL 27 -7.65 36.7% -20.6%

Play Type: Fumble Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 99

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 0.65 = -7.65

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.35)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WMU 15, TOL 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.7%

Win Probability (After): 16.2%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 20 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:48 ESPN team id 2711 (Kickoff at WMU 35) Thomas Cluckey kickoff for 57 yds - WMU 15, TOL 27 0.00 17.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.04 - 0.04 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.96)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-11.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 27

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.9%

Win Probability (After): 17.9%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 6:48 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at WMU 25) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 12 yds to the WMich 37 for a 1ST down - WMU 15, TOL 27 1.08 17.9% 3.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 63

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 0.04 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.96)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-10.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.9%

Win Probability (After): 21.7%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 6:48 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at WMU 37) Kaleb Eleby run for 4 yds to the WMich 41 - WMU 15, TOL 27 -0.01 21.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 59

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.11 - 1.12 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-10.88)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-10.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.7%

Win Probability (After): 21.5%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 6:48 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & 6 at WMU 41) Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete - WMU 15, TOL 27 -0.84 21.5% -4.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.26 - 1.11 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-10.89)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-11.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.5%

Win Probability (After): 17.3%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 6:48 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 6 at WMU 41) Kaleb Eleby run for 5 yds to the WMich 46 - WMU 15, TOL 27 -0.13 17.3% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 54

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 0.26 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.74)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-11.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 27

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.3%

Win Probability (After): 17.5%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:39 ESPN team id 2711 (4th & 1 at WMU 46) La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the WMich 46 - WMU 15, TOL 27 -3.71 17.0% -6.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 46

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.57 - 0.14 = -3.71

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.86)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.57)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WMU 15, TOL 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.0%

Win Probability (After): 10.1%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 4:39 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at WMU 46) Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the WMich 43 - WMU 15, TOL 27 -0.39 90.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 43

Started Drive at: WMU 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.18 - 3.57 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.57)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.4%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:39 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 7 at WMU 43) Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST down - WMU 15, TOL 27 0.92 90.4% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 35

Started Drive at: WMU 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.10 - 3.18 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.18)

Score Difference (End): 12 (16.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.4%

Win Probability (After): 93.0%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:39 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at WMU 35) Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the WMich 29 - WMU 15, TOL 27 0.25 93.0% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 29

Started Drive at: WMU 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.35 - 4.10 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): 12 (16.10)

Score Difference (End): 12 (16.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.0%

Win Probability (After): 93.1%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:39 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 4 at WMU 29) Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the WMich 21 for a 1ST down - WMU 15, TOL 27 0.59 93.1% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 21

Started Drive at: WMU 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.93 - 4.35 = 0.59

Score Difference (Before): 12 (16.35)

Score Difference (End): 12 (16.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 27

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.1%

Win Probability (After): 94.5%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:39 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at WMU 21) Bryant Koback run for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 25 - WMU 15, TOL 27 -1.40 94.5% -3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 25

Started Drive at: WMU 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.53 - 4.93 = -1.40

Score Difference (Before): 12 (16.93)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.5%

Win Probability (After): 90.9%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:13 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 12 at WMU 23) Timeout TOLEDO, clock 01:13 - WMU 15, TOL 27 0.00 93.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: WMU 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.53 - 3.53 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.53)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.5%

Win Probability (After): 93.5%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:13 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 14 at WMU 25) Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the WMich 23 - WMU 15, TOL 27 -0.61 93.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 23

Started Drive at: WMU 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.96 - 3.57 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.57)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 27

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.7%

Win Probability (After): 93.4%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:13 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 12 at WMU 23) Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 20 yds to the WMich 3 for a 1ST down - WMU 15, TOL 27 2.92 93.4% 2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 3

Started Drive at: WMU 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.88 - 2.96 = 2.92

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.96)

Score Difference (End): 12 (17.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 27

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.4%

Win Probability (After): 95.7%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:54 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & Goal at WMU 3) Micah Kelly run for 3 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) - WMU 15, TOL 34 0.68 95.6% 2.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: WMU 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.32 = 0.68

Score Difference (Before): 12 (18.32)

Score Difference (End): 19 (19.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.6%

Win Probability (After): 98.6%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 27 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:54 ESPN team id 2711 (Kickoff at WMU 35) Thomas Cluckey kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - WMU 15, TOL 34 0.00 1.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.39 - -0.39 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-19.39)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-19.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.5%

Win Probability (After): 1.5%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:54 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at WMU 25) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Sean Tyler for 2 yds to the WMich 27 - WMU 15, TOL 34 -0.50 1.5% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.89 - -0.39 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-19.39)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-19.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.5%

Win Probability (After): 1.5%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & 8 at WMU 27) Sean Tyler run for 3 yds to the WMich 30 - WMU 15, TOL 34 -0.32 1.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 70

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.19 - -0.88 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-19.88)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-20.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.4%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 5 at WMU 30) Kaleb Eleby run for 6 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST down - WMU 15, TOL 34 1.77 1.2% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 64

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.57 - -1.20 = 1.77

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-20.20)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-18.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.7%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at WMU 36) TOLEDO Penalty, Roughing the Passer on JOHNSON, Desjuan enforced (Dyontae Johnson) to the Toled 33 for a 1ST down - WMU 15, TOL 34 2.58 1.7% 0.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 33

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.14 - 0.57 = 2.58

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-18.43)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-15.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.7%

Win Probability (After): 2.0%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:32 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & 8 at TOL 31) Timeout WESTRN MICHIGAN, clock 13:32 - WMU 15, TOL 34 0.00 2.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 31

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.14 - 3.14 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-15.86)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-15.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.0%

Win Probability (After): 2.0%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:32 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at TOL 33) La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Toled 31 - WMU 15, TOL 34 -0.71 2.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 31

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 3.10 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-15.90)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-16.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.9%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:32 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & 8 at TOL 31) Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete - WMU 15, TOL 34 -1.12 1.9% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 31

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.28 - 2.39 = -1.12

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-16.61)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-17.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.9%

Win Probability (After): 1.6%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:32 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 8 at TOL 31) Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete - WMU 15, TOL 34 -1.82 1.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 31

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.55 - 1.28 = -1.82

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-17.72)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-19.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.6%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:14 ESPN team id 2711 (4th & 8 at TOL 31) Kaleb Eleby sacked by Judge Culpepper for 0 yards to the Toled 37 - WMU 15, TOL 34 -2.62 1.2% -0.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 63

Started Drive at: WMU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.17 - -0.55 = -2.62

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-19.55)

Score Difference (End): 19 (22.17)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 13:14 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 37) Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 39 - WMU 15, TOL 34 -0.49 99.5% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 61

Started Drive at: TOL 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.67 - 3.16 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 19 (22.16)

Score Difference (End): 19 (21.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:14 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 8 at TOL 39) TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Vinny Sciury) to the Toled 34 - WMU 15, TOL 34 -0.36 99.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 66

Started Drive at: TOL 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.31 - 2.67 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 19 (21.67)

Score Difference (End): 19 (21.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:14 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 13 at TOL 34) Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 35 - WMU 15, TOL 34 -0.90 99.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 65

Started Drive at: TOL 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.41 - 2.31 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): 19 (21.31)

Score Difference (End): 19 (20.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:14 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 12 at TOL 35) Dequan Finn pass incomplete - WMU 15, TOL 34 -1.10 99.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: TOL 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.31 - 1.41 = -1.10

Score Difference (Before): 19 (20.41)

Score Difference (End): 19 (19.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 99.0%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:16 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 12 at TOL 35) Bailey Flint punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Bryce Nunnelly at the WMich 23 - WMU 15, TOL 34 0.26 99.2% -0.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 77

Started Drive at: TOL 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.54 - 0.28 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): 19 (19.28)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-19.54)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.7%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 11:16 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at WMU 23) Jaxson Kincaide run for no gain to the WMich 23 - WMU 15, TOL 34 -0.58 1.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77

Started Drive at: WMU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.91 - -0.34 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-19.34)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-19.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:16 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & 10 at WMU 23) Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 17 yds to the WMich 40 for a 1ST down - WMU 15, TOL 34 1.88 1.3% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 60

Started Drive at: WMU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.96 - -0.91 = 1.88

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-19.91)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-18.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.4%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:16 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at WMU 40) Jaxson Kincaide run for 12 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST down - WMU 15, TOL 34 0.97 1.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 48

Started Drive at: WMU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.94 - 0.96 = 0.97

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-18.04)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-17.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.4%

Win Probability (After): 1.5%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:16 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at TOL 48) Jaxson Kincaide run for 4 yds to the Toled 44 - WMU 15, TOL 34 -0.12 1.5% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 44

Started Drive at: WMU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 1.94 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-17.06)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-17.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.5%

Win Probability (After): 1.5%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:16 ESPN team id 2711 (2nd & 6 at TOL 44) Kaleb Eleby pass incomplete - WMU 15, TOL 34 -0.95 1.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: WMU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.87 - 1.82 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-17.18)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-18.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.5%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:16 ESPN team id 2711 (3rd & 6 at TOL 44) Kaleb Eleby sacked by Desjuan Johnson for 0 yards to the WMich 46 - WMU 15, TOL 34 -2.48 1.3% -0.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 54

Started Drive at: WMU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.61 - 0.87 = -2.48

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-18.13)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-20.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 2711 (4th & 16 at WMU 46) Nick Mihalic punt for 43 yds - WMU 15, TOL 34 -0.25 0.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 89

Started Drive at: WMU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.80 - -1.55 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-20.55)

Score Difference (End): 19 (20.80)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 11) Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the Toled 14 - WMU 15, TOL 34 -0.38 99.5% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 86

Started Drive at: TOL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - 1.18 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): 19 (20.18)

Score Difference (End): 19 (19.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 7 at TOL 14) Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the Toled 17 - WMU 15, TOL 34 -0.24 99.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 83

Started Drive at: TOL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 0.80 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): 19 (19.80)

Score Difference (End): 19 (19.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 4 at TOL 17) TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Vitaliy Gurman) to the Toled 12 - WMU 15, TOL 34 -0.82 99.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 88

Started Drive at: TOL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.26 - 0.56 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): 19 (19.56)

Score Difference (End): 19 (18.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 9 at TOL 12) Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST down - WMU 15, TOL 34 2.00 99.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 79

Started Drive at: TOL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.74 - -0.26 = 2.00

Score Difference (Before): 19 (18.74)

Score Difference (End): 19 (20.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 21) WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Delay Of Game (Zaire Barnes) to the Toled 26 - WMU 15, TOL 34 0.55 99.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 74

Started Drive at: TOL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 1.74 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): 19 (20.74)

Score Difference (End): 19 (21.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 5 at TOL 26) Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 28 - WMU 15, TOL 34 -0.41 99.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 72

Started Drive at: TOL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.88 - 2.29 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): 19 (21.29)

Score Difference (End): 19 (20.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 3 at TOL 28) Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST down - WMU 15, TOL 34 0.41 99.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 66

Started Drive at: TOL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 1.88 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 19 (20.88)

Score Difference (End): 19 (21.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 34) Jacquez Stuart run for 5 yds to the Toled 39 - WMU 15, TOL 34 -0.18 99.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 61

Started Drive at: TOL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 2.29 = -0.18

Score Difference (Before): 19 (21.29)

Score Difference (End): 19 (21.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 5 at TOL 39) STUART, Jacquez rush up the middle for a loss of 4 yards to the TOL35 (CARTER, Andre). PENALTY WMU Face mask on CARTER, Andre enforced 15 yards from the TOL39 to the WMU46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - WMU 15, TOL 34 1.20 99.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 46

Started Drive at: TOL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.31 - 2.11 = 1.20

Score Difference (Before): 19 (21.11)

Score Difference (End): 19 (22.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at WMU 46) Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the WMich 45 - WMU 15, TOL 34 -0.62 99.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 45

Started Drive at: TOL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.69 - 3.31 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 19 (22.31)

Score Difference (End): 19 (21.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:33 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 9 at WMU 45) Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the WMich 43 - WMU 15, TOL 34 -0.70 99.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 43

Started Drive at: TOL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.99 - 2.69 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): 19 (21.69)

Score Difference (End): 19 (20.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:58 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 7 at WMU 43) Micah Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 45 - WMU 15, TOL 34 -0.51 99.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 45

Started Drive at: TOL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 0.94 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 19 (19.94)

Score Difference (End): 19 (19.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:58 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 9 at WMU 45) Timeout TOLEDO, clock 00:58 - WMU 15, TOL 34 0.00 99.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45

Started Drive at: TOL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 0.43 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 19 (19.43)

Score Difference (End): 19 (19.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:52 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 9 at WMU 45) Bailey Flint punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bryce Nunnelly at the WMich 9 - WMU 15, TOL 34 -0.39 99.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 91

Started Drive at: TOL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 0.37 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 19 (19.37)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-18.98)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:52 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at WMU 9) Lucas Hartings run for 12 yds to the WMich 21 for a 1ST down - WMU 15, TOL 34 0.24 0.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 79

Started Drive at: WMU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.27 - 0.03 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-18.97)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-18.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2711 (1st & 10 at WMU 21) Lucas Hartings run for 13 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST down - WMU 15, TOL 34 -0.04 0.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 99

Started Drive at: WMU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - -0.01 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-19.01)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-19.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WMU 15, TOL 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2