Buffalo 45 @ Akron 10

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 5.55 | Odds: BUFF -13.5, O/U 58.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 2084 ESPN team id 2006
Total Plays 7880
Total EPA -13.29-42.36
  Offensive EPA -10.77-41.38
  Special Teams EPA -2.51-0.40
  Penalty EPA 0.28-3.28
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA -0.292.70
Production ESPN team id 2084 ESPN team id 2006
Scrimmage Plays 7267
  Yards 469349
  Yards/Play 6.515.21
  EPA -10.77-41.38
  EPA/Play -0.15-0.62
Passes 23 (32%)32 (48%)
  Yards 25376
  Yards/Play 11.002.38
  EPA 4.18-40.30
  EPA/Play 0.18-1.26
Rushes 49 (68%)35 (52%)
  Yards 231288
  Yards/Play 4.919.00
  EPA -14.95-1.08
  EPA/Play -0.31-0.03
Rushing ESPN team id 2084 ESPN team id 2006
Scrimmage Plays 7267
Rushes 49 (68%)35 (52%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 5 (10%)2 (6%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 5 (100%)2 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 5 (10%)4 (11%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 16 (33%)10 (29%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 26 (53%)19 (54%)
OL Line Yards 84.836
  Per Carry 1.731.03
Highlight Yards 58150
  Per Rush Opportunity 2.237.89
Explosiveness ESPN team id 2084 ESPN team id 2006
Total Plays 7880
Scrimmage Plays 7267
Explosive Plays 3 (4%)3 (4%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 2 (9%)0 (0%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 1 (2%)3 (9%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -18.71-51.72
  EPA/Play -0.27-0.81
  When Passing -1.34-40.30
    EPA/Play -0.06-1.26
  When Rushing -17.37-11.42
    EPA/Play -0.36-0.36
Situational ESPN team id 2084 ESPN team id 2006
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 23 (32%)15 (22%)
  When Passing 9 (39%)2 (6%)
  When Rushing 14 (29%)13 (37%)
  On Standard Downs 19 (33%)10 (25%)
  On Passing Downs 4 (27%)5 (19%)
  On Early Downs 19 (33%)10 (20%)
  On Late Downs 4 (29%)5 (31%)
  During "Middle 8" 4 (20%)2 (11%)
Early Downs 5851
  First Downs Created 17 (29%)11 (22%)
  EPA -3.05-30.08
  EPA/Play -0.05-0.59
  Passes 16 (28%)24 (47%)
  Rushes 42 (72%)27 (53%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 8 (50%)1 (4%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 11 (26%)9 (33%)
"Middle 8" Plays 2019
  EPA -2.64-7.64
  EPA/play -0.13-0.40
  Passes 9 (45%)9 (47%)
  Rushes 11 (55%)10 (53%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 3 (33%)0 (0%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 1 (9%)2 (20%)
Drives ESPN team id 2084 ESPN team id 2006
Total 1212
Avg Starting Field Position Own 34Own 27
Plays/Drive 7.568.24
Yards/Drive 46.2229.39
Available Yards % 70%40%
Defensive ESPN team id 2084 ESPN team id 2006
Scrimmage Plays 6772
Stop Rate 57%44%
Havoc Plays Created 17 (25%)7 (10%)
  Passing 13 (41%)2 (9%)
  Rushing 4 (11%)5 (10%)
TFLs Generated 156
  Passing 111
  Rushing 45
Sacks Generated 11 (34%)0 (0%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 10
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 2084 ESPN team id 2006
Turnovers 25
  Fumbles 25
  Fumbles Lost 24
  Fumbles Recovered 01
  Interceptions 01
Turnover Margin 3-3
Expected Turnovers 3.53.7
Expected Turnover Margin 0.2-0.2
Turnover Luck (pts) 13.9-13.9
Special Teams ESPN team id 2084 ESPN team id 2006
Total Plays 6 13
Total EPA -2.51 -0.4
  Field Goal EPA 0.14 0.5
  Punting EPA -0.9 0.04
  Kickoff Return EPA -1.75 -0.94

Buffalo [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Kyle Vantrease 15/17, 241 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 81.8 xQBR 14.18 0.66 11.25 53% 31.0%
Matt Myers 2/2, 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 47.9 xQBR 6.00 -0.11 -0.23 0% 0.0%
Rush attempts
Dylan McDuffie 22 carries, 111 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.05 0.10 2.27 50% -5.0%
Jake Molinich 1 carry, 1 yd, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 1.13 1.13 100% 15.0%
Khamran Laborn 1 carry, 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 -0.16 -0.16 0% 0.0%
Jamari Gassett 1 carry, 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 -1.47 -1.47 0% -5.0%
Kyle Vantrease 4 carries, 25 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.25 -0.56 -2.23 50% -2.0%
Ron Cook Jr. 9 carries, 37 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.11 -0.39 -3.48 0% -7.0%
Mike Washington 9 carries, 44 yds, 0 TD, 2 Fum (2 lost) 4.89 -1.03 -9.26 0% -13.0%
Pass targets
Jamari Gassett 4 catches (4 targets), 95 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 23.75 1.46 5.85 75% 10.0%
Dominic Johnson 3 catches (4 targets), 42 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.00 1.40 5.60 100% 18.0%
Bernard Porter 1 catch (1 target), 41 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 41.00 1.79 1.79 100% 0.0%
Dylan McDuffie 1 catch (1 target), 4 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 1.48 1.48 100% 13.0%
Jake Molinich 1 catch (1 target), 36 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 36.00 0.00 0.00 0% -2.0%
Trevor Borland 1 catch (2 targets), 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.48 -0.97 0% 0.0%
Ron Cook Jr. 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.65 -1.65 0% -5.0%
Tyler Stephens 3 catches (4 targets), 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.33 -0.79 -3.15 0% -5.0%
Quian Williams 3 catches (5 targets), 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 -0.95 -4.77 0% -10.0%

Akron [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Zach Gibson 2/2, 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 33.1 xQBR 3.00 -0.32 -0.97 33% -4.0%
TEAM 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 10.8 xQBR 0.00 -1.19 -1.19 0% 0.0%
DJ Irons 6/9, 67 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 10 Scks, 8.1 xQBR 3.53 -1.68 -31.95 5% 40.0%
Rush attempts
Jonzell Norrils 11 carries, 155 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.09 0.84 9.20 64% -18.0%
Anthony Williams Jr. 3 carries, 23 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.67 0.33 1.00 67% 0.0%
Blake Hester 4 carries, 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.44 -1.76 0% -6.0%
DJ Irons 14 carries, 106 yds, 0 TD, 2 Fum (1 lost) 7.57 -0.46 -6.39 29% -33.0%
Pass targets
Oran Singleton Jr. 0 catches (1 target), 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 1.39 1.39 100% 0.0%
Michael Mathison 2 catches (5 targets), 26 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.00 -0.13 -0.65 20% 0.0%
Blake Hester 1 catch (1 target), 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.89 -0.89 0% -4.0%
Andre Williams 2 catches (4 targets), 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.00 -0.31 -1.23 0% -10.0%
Konata Mumpfield 3 catches (8 targets), 36 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.00 -0.73 -5.85 0% -18.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 4:25 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 37) DJ Irons sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the Akron 7 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -7.59 18.2% -6.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 7

Started Drive at: AKR 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -5.61 - 1.99 = -7.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.99)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.61)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.2%

Win Probability (After): 12.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:39 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & Goal at BUFF 5) DJ Irons run for 5 yds to the Buff 20 DJ Irons fumbled, recovered by Akron - BUFF 3, AKR 0 -6.50 41.0% -21.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 80

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.17 - 5.33 = -6.50

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.33)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.17)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 3, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.0%

Win Probability (After): 19.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:16 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 26) Jonzell Norrils 74 Yd Run (Cory Smigel Kick) - BUFF 17, AKR 10 5.71 21.2% -9.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.29 = 5.71

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.71)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 17, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.2%

Win Probability (After): 11.9%

Away Score: 2 (17) Home Score: 0 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:32 ESPN team id 2006 (4th & 11 at BUFF 18) DJ Irons sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 23 BUFFALO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Shaun Dolac) to the Buff 38 - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -5.24 0.0% 100.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 62

Started Drive at: AKR 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.82 - 1.03 = -5.24

Score Difference (Before): -35 (-31.58)

Score Difference (End): 35 (36.82)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:18 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 14 at AKR 21) DJ Irons sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the Akron 8 - BUFF 1, AKR 0 -5.18 24.3% -10.6%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 8

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -5.42 - -0.23 = -5.18

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-1.23)

Score Difference (End): 1 (6.42)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 1, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.3%

Win Probability (After): 13.7%

Away Score: 1 (1) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:28 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 10 at AKR 48) DJ Irons pass intercepted - BUFF 2, AKR 0 -4.99 28.9% -11.1%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 47

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.09 - 1.90 = -4.99

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.10)

Score Difference (End): 2 (5.09)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 2, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.9%

Win Probability (After): 17.8%

Away Score: 2 (2) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:14 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at AKR 36) Mike Washington run for a loss of 9 yards to the Akron 48 Mike Washington fumbled, recovered by Akron Randy Cochran Jr. - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -4.94 100.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 52

Started Drive at: BUFF 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.18 - 3.76 = -4.94

Score Difference (Before): 35 (38.76)

Score Difference (End): -35 (-33.82)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:58 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at AKR 15) Jamari Gassett 15 Yd pass from Kyle Vantrease (Alex McNulty Kick) - BUFF 24, AKR 10 3.01 88.1% 8.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.99 = 3.01

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.99)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 24, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.1%

Win Probability (After): 96.8%

Away Score: 2 (24) Home Score: 1 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:41 ESPN team id 2084 (4th & 4 at AKR 37) pass incomplete to Tyler Stephens - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -2.90 83.9% -4.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 63

Started Drive at: BUFF 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.99 - 0.90 = -2.90

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.90)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.99)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at BUFF 40) Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 45 yds to the Akron 15 for a 1ST down - BUFF 3, AKR 0 2.51 84.0% 3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 15

Started Drive at: BUFF 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.02 - 2.51 = 2.51

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.51)

Score Difference (End): 3 (8.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 3, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.0%

Win Probability (After): 87.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 4:32 ESPN team id 2006 (4th & 11 at BUFF 18) DJ Irons sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 23 BUFFALO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Shaun Dolac) to the Buff 38 - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -5.24 0.0% 100.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 62

Started Drive at: AKR 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.82 - 1.03 = -5.24

Score Difference (Before): -35 (-31.58)

Score Difference (End): 35 (36.82)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:39 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & Goal at BUFF 5) DJ Irons run for 5 yds to the Buff 20 DJ Irons fumbled, recovered by Akron - BUFF 3, AKR 0 -6.50 41.0% -21.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 80

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.17 - 5.33 = -6.50

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.33)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.17)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 3, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.0%

Win Probability (After): 19.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:20 ESPN team id 2084 (3rd & Goal at AKR 1) Jake Molinich 1 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick) - BUFF 38, AKR 10 1.13 84.4% 15.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.87 = 1.13

Score Difference (Before): 1 (6.87)

Score Difference (End): 28 (28.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 38, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 1 (38) Home Score: 0 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:18 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & Goal at AKR 4) Dylan McDuffie 4 Yd pass from Kyle Vantrease (Alex McNulty Kick) - BUFF 45, AKR 10 1.48 86.9% 12.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.52 = 1.48

Score Difference (Before): 2 (7.52)

Score Difference (End): 35 (35.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 2 (45) Home Score: 0 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (4th & 1 at AKR 27) Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the Akron 27 for a 1ST down - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -1.35 99.9% -12.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.04 - 1.39 = -1.35

Score Difference (Before): 35 (36.39)

Score Difference (End): 35 (35.04)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 87.1%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 11:04 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & Goal at AKR 7) Dominic Johnson 7 Yd pass from Kyle Vantrease (Alex McNulty Kick) - BUFF 31, AKR 10 2.09 86.6% 12.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.91 = 2.09

Score Difference (Before): 2 (6.91)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 31, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.0%

Away Score: 3 (31) Home Score: 1 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 9 at AKR 18) DJ Irons pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 10 yds to the Akron 28 for a 1ST down - BUFF 9, AKR 0 -0.07 18.5% -11.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.00 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.00)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 9, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.5%

Win Probability (After): 7.1%

Away Score: 3 (9) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:28 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 10 at AKR 48) DJ Irons pass intercepted - BUFF 2, AKR 0 -4.99 28.9% -11.1%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 47

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.09 - 1.90 = -4.99

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.10)

Score Difference (End): 2 (5.09)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 2, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.9%

Win Probability (After): 17.8%

Away Score: 2 (2) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:57 ESPN team id 2006 (4th & 3 at BUFF 18) Cory Smigel 35 Yd Field Goal - BUFF 10, AKR 3 0.50 22.8% -11.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 65

Started Drive at: AKR 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.50 = 0.50

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.50)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 10, AKR 3

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.8%

Win Probability (After): 11.8%

Away Score: 1 (10) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:18 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 14 at AKR 21) DJ Irons sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the Akron 8 - BUFF 1, AKR 0 -5.18 24.3% -10.6%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 8

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -5.42 - -0.23 = -5.18

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-1.23)

Score Difference (End): 1 (6.42)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 1, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.3%

Win Probability (After): 13.7%

Away Score: 1 (1) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 2:59 ESPN team id 2084 (4th & Goal at AKR 5) Alex McNulty 23 yd FG GOOD - BUFF 3, AKR 0 0.14 83.6% 1.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 65

Started Drive at: AKR 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.86 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.86)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 3, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.6%

Win Probability (After): 85.2%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:50 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & Goal at AKR 2) Dylan McDuffie 2 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick) - BUFF 10, AKR 0 0.63 97.8% -4.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.37 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): 12 (18.37)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 10, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 93.7%

Away Score: 21 (10) Home Score: 9 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:57 ESPN team id 2006 (4th & 3 at BUFF 18) Cory Smigel 35 Yd Field Goal - BUFF 10, AKR 3 0.50 22.8% -11.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 65

Started Drive at: AKR 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.50 = 0.50

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.50)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 10, AKR 3

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.8%

Win Probability (After): 11.8%

Away Score: 1 (10) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 4:32 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & Goal at AKR 2) Kyle Vantrease 2 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick) - BUFF 17, AKR 3 0.89 89.9% 6.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.11 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): 1 (7.11)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 17, AKR 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.9%

Win Probability (After): 96.4%

Away Score: 1 (17) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:16 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 26) Jonzell Norrils 74 Yd Run (Cory Smigel Kick) - BUFF 17, AKR 10 5.71 21.2% -9.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.29 = 5.71

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.71)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 17, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.2%

Win Probability (After): 11.9%

Away Score: 2 (17) Home Score: 0 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:58 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at AKR 15) Jamari Gassett 15 Yd pass from Kyle Vantrease (Alex McNulty Kick) - BUFF 24, AKR 10 3.01 88.1% 8.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.99 = 3.01

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.99)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 24, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.1%

Win Probability (After): 96.8%

Away Score: 2 (24) Home Score: 1 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:04 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & Goal at AKR 7) Dominic Johnson 7 Yd pass from Kyle Vantrease (Alex McNulty Kick) - BUFF 31, AKR 10 2.09 86.6% 12.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.91 = 2.09

Score Difference (Before): 2 (6.91)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 31, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.0%

Away Score: 3 (31) Home Score: 1 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:20 ESPN team id 2084 (3rd & Goal at AKR 1) Jake Molinich 1 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick) - BUFF 38, AKR 10 1.13 84.4% 15.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.87 = 1.13

Score Difference (Before): 1 (6.87)

Score Difference (End): 28 (28.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 38, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 1 (38) Home Score: 0 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:18 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & Goal at AKR 4) Dylan McDuffie 4 Yd pass from Kyle Vantrease (Alex McNulty Kick) - BUFF 45, AKR 10 1.48 86.9% 12.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.52 = 1.48

Score Difference (Before): 2 (7.52)

Score Difference (End): 35 (35.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 2 (45) Home Score: 0 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 25) Zach Gibson pass complete to Blake Hester for 1 yd to the Akron 26 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -0.89 22.7% -4.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.28 - 1.16 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.7%

Win Probability (After): 18.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 9 at AKR 26) Blake Hester run for 3 yds to the Akron 29 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -0.56 22.4% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 71

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 0.59 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.59)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.4%

Win Probability (After): 20.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (3rd & 6 at AKR 29) Zach Gibson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 8 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST down - BUFF 0, AKR 0 2.02 20.9% 4.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 63

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.04 - 0.02 = 2.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.9%

Win Probability (After): 25.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 37) Blake Hester run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 36 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -0.99 25.2% -2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 64

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.05 - 2.04 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.04)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.2%

Win Probability (After): 22.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 11 at AKR 36) pass incomplete to Michael Mathison - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -0.96 22.7% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.08 - 1.05 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.7%

Win Probability (After): 21.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (3rd & 11 at AKR 36) pass incomplete to Konata Mumpfield - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -1.16 21.1% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.08 - 0.08 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.1%

Win Probability (After): 18.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at BUFF 23) Dylan McDuffie run for 9 yds to the Buff 32 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 0.98 76.5% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 68

Started Drive at: BUFF 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 1.02 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.5%

Win Probability (After): 78.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & 1 at BUFF 32) Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 13 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST down - BUFF 0, AKR 0 0.55 78.1% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 55

Started Drive at: BUFF 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.55 - 2.00 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.00)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.1%

Win Probability (After): 79.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at BUFF 45) Dylan McDuffie run for 12 yds to the Akron 43 for a 1ST down - BUFF 0, AKR 0 0.79 79.2% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 43

Started Drive at: BUFF 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 2.55 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.55)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.2%

Win Probability (After): 79.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at AKR 43) Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the Akron 42 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -0.63 79.9% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 42

Started Drive at: BUFF 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.71 - 3.34 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & 9 at AKR 42) Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the Akron 39 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -0.46 79.5% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 39

Started Drive at: BUFF 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.25 - 2.71 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.71)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.5%

Win Probability (After): 79.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (3rd & 6 at AKR 39) Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Akron 37 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -1.49 79.2% -2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 37

Started Drive at: BUFF 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.76 - 2.25 = -1.49

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.25)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.2%

Win Probability (After): 76.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 37) pass incomplete to Andre Williams - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -0.66 25.2% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: AKR 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.38 - 2.04 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.04)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.2%

Win Probability (After): 23.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 10 at AKR 37) pass incomplete to Konata Mumpfield - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -0.90 23.1% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: AKR 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.48 - 1.38 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.38)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.1%

Win Probability (After): 21.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (3rd & 10 at AKR 37) Zach Gibson sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 30 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -2.10 21.8% -3.9%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 70

Started Drive at: AKR 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.61 - 0.48 = -2.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.48)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.8%

Win Probability (After): 17.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at BUFF 28) Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 32 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -0.24 77.9% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 68

Started Drive at: BUFF 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.25 - 1.49 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.9%

Win Probability (After): 76.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & 6 at BUFF 32) Dylan McDuffie run for 5 yds to the Buff 37 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 0.28 76.4% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 63

Started Drive at: BUFF 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - 1.25 = 0.28

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.25)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.4%

Win Probability (After): 78.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (3rd & 1 at BUFF 37) Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the Buff 38 for a 1ST down - BUFF 0, AKR 0 0.60 78.0% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 62

Started Drive at: BUFF 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.13 - 1.53 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.0%

Win Probability (After): 78.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at BUFF 38) Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Quian Williams, broken up by Charles Amankwaa - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -0.67 78.8% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: BUFF 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - 2.13 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.8%

Win Probability (After): 78.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & 10 at BUFF 38) Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic Johnson BUFFALO Penalty, off-side (-5 Yards) to the Buff 43 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 0.71 78.0% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 57

Started Drive at: BUFF 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 1.46 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.46)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.0%

Win Probability (After): 78.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & 5 at BUFF 43) Dylan McDuffie run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 42 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -1.20 78.8% -3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 58

Started Drive at: BUFF 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.97 - 2.17 = -1.20

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.8%

Win Probability (After): 75.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (3rd & 6 at BUFF 42) pass incomplete to Ron Cook Jr. - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -1.65 75.8% -4.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: BUFF 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.69 - 0.97 = -1.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.97)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.8%

Win Probability (After): 71.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 20) Anthony Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the Akron 25 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 0.08 22.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 75

Started Drive at: AKR 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 0.87 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.87)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.4%

Win Probability (After): 22.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 5 at AKR 25) DJ Irons run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 24 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -1.38 22.6% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 76

Started Drive at: AKR 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.43 - 0.95 = -1.38

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.6%

Win Probability (After): 20.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (3rd & 6 at AKR 24) DJ Irons run for 13 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST down - BUFF 0, AKR 0 2.47 20.6% 4.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 63

Started Drive at: AKR 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.04 - -0.43 = 2.47

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.43)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.6%

Win Probability (After): 25.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & Goal at AKR 7) Dylan McDuffie run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 9 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -0.93 83.3% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 9

Started Drive at: AKR 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.63 - 5.56 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.56)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.3%

Win Probability (After): 82.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (3rd & Goal at AKR 5) pass incomplete to Quian Williams - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -1.46 81.9% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 5

Started Drive at: AKR 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 4.28 = -1.46

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 25) DJ Irons run for 2 yds to the Akron 27 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -0.54 22.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.62 - 1.16 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.7%

Win Probability (After): 22.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 8 at AKR 27) DJ Irons run for 3 yds to the Akron 30 - BUFF 3, AKR 0 -0.64 22.4% -6.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 70

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 0.62 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.62)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 3, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.4%

Win Probability (After): 16.0%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (3rd & 5 at AKR 30) DJ Irons sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 28 - BUFF 3, AKR 0 -2.03 16.0% -3.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 72

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.04 - -0.02 = -2.03

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.02)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-5.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 3, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.0%

Win Probability (After): 13.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at BUFF 40) Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 45 yds to the Akron 15 for a 1ST down - BUFF 3, AKR 0 2.51 84.0% 3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 15

Started Drive at: BUFF 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.02 - 2.51 = 2.51

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.51)

Score Difference (End): 3 (8.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 3, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.0%

Win Probability (After): 87.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at AKR 15) Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Akron 13 - BUFF 3, AKR 0 -0.53 87.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 13

Started Drive at: BUFF 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.50 - 5.02 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.02)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 3, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.0%

Win Probability (After): 86.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2006 (Kickoff at AKR 35) Alex McNulty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BUFF 0, AKR 0 0.72 13.1% 9.6%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.16 - 0.44 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.56)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.1%

Win Probability (After): 22.7%

Away Score: 3 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:24 ESPN team id 2006 (4th & 11 at AKR 36) Ethan Slike punt for 41 yds - BUFF 0, AKR 0 0.45 16.2% -0.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 77

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.72 - -1.17 = 0.45

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.72)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.2%

Win Probability (After): 15.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 9:41 ESPN team id 2084 (4th & 4 at AKR 37) pass incomplete to Tyler Stephens - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -2.90 83.9% -4.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 63

Started Drive at: BUFF 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.99 - 0.90 = -2.90

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.90)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.99)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:41 ESPN team id 2006 (4th & 17 at AKR 30) Ethan Slike punt for 42 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for no gain to the Buff 28 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 0.24 13.4% 2.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 72

Started Drive at: AKR 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.53 - -1.77 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.53)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.4%

Win Probability (After): 16.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 6:35 ESPN team id 2084 (4th & 6 at BUFF 42) Jackson Baltar punt for 58 yds - BUFF 0, AKR 0 0.01 81.0% 1.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 80

Started Drive at: BUFF 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.72 - -0.73 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.73)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.72)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.0%

Win Probability (After): 82.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:25 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 37) DJ Irons sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the Akron 7 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -7.59 18.2% -6.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 7

Started Drive at: AKR 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -5.61 - 1.99 = -7.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.99)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.61)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.2%

Win Probability (After): 12.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:43 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & Goal at AKR 9) Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 4 yds to the Akron 5 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -0.33 86.3% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 5

Started Drive at: AKR 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.38 - 4.71 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.71)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.3%

Win Probability (After): 87.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:59 ESPN team id 2084 (4th & Goal at AKR 5) Alex McNulty 23 yd FG GOOD - BUFF 3, AKR 0 0.14 83.6% 1.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 65

Started Drive at: AKR 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.86 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.86)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 3, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.6%

Win Probability (After): 85.2%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:59 ESPN team id 2006 (Kickoff at AKR 35) Alex McNulty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BUFF 0, AKR 0 0.36 15.7% 3.2%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.06 - 0.71 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.29)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.7%

Win Probability (After): 18.9%

Away Score: 3 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:45 ESPN team id 2006 (4th & 7 at AKR 28) Ethan Slike punt for 34 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 2 yds to the Buff 40 - BUFF 0, AKR 0 -0.34 18.1% -1.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 60

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.19 - -1.84 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.84)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.19)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 0, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.1%

Win Probability (After): 17.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & 8 at AKR 13) Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the Akron 10 - BUFF 3, AKR 0 1.55 78.4% 9.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 10

Started Drive at: BUFF 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.12 - 2.57 = 1.55

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.57)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 3, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.4%

Win Probability (After): 87.7%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (3rd & 5 at AKR 10) Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 8 yds to the Akron 2 for a 1ST down - BUFF 3, AKR 0 -2.23 85.9% -6.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 2.24 = -2.23

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.24)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 3, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 17) Blake Hester run for 1 yd to the Akron 18 - BUFF 3, AKR 0 -0.04 18.7% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - 0.00 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.00)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 3, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.7%

Win Probability (After): 18.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 9 at AKR 18) DJ Irons pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 10 yds to the Akron 28 for a 1ST down - BUFF 9, AKR 0 -0.07 18.5% -11.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.00 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.00)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 9, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.5%

Win Probability (After): 7.1%

Away Score: 3 (9) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 28) DJ Irons run for 14 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST down - BUFF 9, AKR 0 -0.06 7.5% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - -0.01 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-9.01)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 9, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.5%

Win Probability (After): 7.1%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 42) pass incomplete to Konata Mumpfield - BUFF 9, AKR 0 -0.16 7.5% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.09 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.91)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 9, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.5%

Win Probability (After): 6.7%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 10 at AKR 42) Blake Hester run for 1 yd to the Akron 43 - BUFF 9, AKR 0 -0.17 7.4% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.10 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.90)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 9, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.4%

Win Probability (After): 6.2%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (3rd & 9 at AKR 43) DJ Irons run for 19 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST down - BUFF 9, AKR 0 -0.16 7.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.09 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.91)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 9, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.2%

Win Probability (After): 7.1%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at BUFF 38) pass incomplete to Michael Mathison - BUFF 9, AKR 0 -0.84 9.6% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.77 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.23)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 9, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.6%

Win Probability (After): 6.7%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 10 at BUFF 38) DJ Irons run for 7 yds to the Buff 31 - BUFF 9, AKR 0 -0.80 9.5% -2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.73 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.27)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 9, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.5%

Win Probability (After): 6.6%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (3rd & 3 at BUFF 31) DJ Irons run for 6 yds to the Buff 25 for a 1ST down - BUFF 9, AKR 0 -1.31 10.3% -3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 1.24 = -1.31

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.76)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 9, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.3%

Win Probability (After): 7.1%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at BUFF 25) DJ Irons sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the Buff 33 - BUFF 9, AKR 0 -1.55 11.3% -5.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - 1.45 = -1.55

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.55)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 9, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.3%

Win Probability (After): 6.3%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 18 at BUFF 33) BUFFALO Penalty, illegal motion (5 Yards) to the Buff 38 - BUFF 9, AKR 0 -0.02 7.6% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.12 - 0.86 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-9.10)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 9, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.6%

Win Probability (After): 6.4%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 23 at BUFF 38) DJ Irons pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 20 yds to the Buff 18 - BUFF 9, AKR 0 -0.93 8.6% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.86 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.14)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 9, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.6%

Win Probability (After): 6.6%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (3rd & 3 at BUFF 18) nan - BUFF 9, AKR 0 -1.95 12.0% -5.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 1.89 = -1.95

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.11)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 9, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.0%

Win Probability (After): 6.1%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at BUFF 25) Dylan McDuffie run for 8 yds to the Buff 33 - BUFF 9, AKR 0 -0.01 91.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 0.03 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): 9 (9.03)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 9, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.3%

Win Probability (After): 91.3%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & 2 at BUFF 33) Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST down - BUFF 9, AKR 3 -0.14 91.2% -4.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.08 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): 9 (9.08)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 9, AKR 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.2%

Win Probability (After): 86.8%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at BUFF 39) Ron Cook Jr. run for 15 yds to the Akron 46 for a 1ST down - BUFF 9, AKR 3 -0.15 88.0% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.09 = -0.15

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.09)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 9, AKR 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.0%

Win Probability (After): 86.8%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at AKR 46) Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jake Molinich for 36 yds to the Akron 10 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding (Dominic Johnson) to the Akron 20 for a 1ST down - BUFF 9, AKR 3 0.00 88.4% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.37 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (5.94)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 9, AKR 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.4%

Win Probability (After): 86.8%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at AKR 20) Jamari Gassett run for 8 yds to the Akron 12 - BUFF 9, AKR 3 -1.47 91.2% -4.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 1.47 = -1.47

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.47)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 9, AKR 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.2%

Win Probability (After): 86.5%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & 2 at AKR 12) Kyle Vantrease run for 10 yds to the Akron 2 for a 1ST down - BUFF 9, AKR 3 -2.07 91.9% -5.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 2.06 = -2.07

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.06)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 9, AKR 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.9%

Win Probability (After): 86.9%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at BUFF 25) Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 1 yd to the Buff 26 - BUFF 9, AKR 3 -0.06 87.1% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 0.03 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.03)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 9, AKR 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.1%

Win Probability (After): 86.4%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & 9 at BUFF 26) Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the Buff 32 - BUFF 15, AKR 9 -0.05 86.9% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 0.04 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.04)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 15, AKR 9

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.9%

Win Probability (After): 86.2%

Away Score: 9 (15) Home Score: 3 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (3rd & 3 at BUFF 32) Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 4 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST down - BUFF 15, AKR 9 -0.10 86.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.05 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.05)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 15, AKR 9

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.8%

Win Probability (After): 86.8%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 9 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at BUFF 36) Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Quian Williams for 6 yds to the Buff 42 - BUFF 15, AKR 9 -0.08 87.5% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 0.06 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.06)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 15, AKR 9

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.5%

Win Probability (After): 86.6%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 9 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & 4 at BUFF 42) Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST down - BUFF 15, AKR 9 -0.20 88.0% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.15 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.15)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 15, AKR 9

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.0%

Win Probability (After): 86.8%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 9 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at BUFF 47) Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 26 yds to the Akron 27 for a 1ST down - BUFF 15, AKR 9 -0.25 88.3% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.20 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.20)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 15, AKR 9

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.3%

Win Probability (After): 86.8%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 9 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at AKR 27) Kyle Vantrease run for 4 yds to the Akron 23 - BUFF 15, AKR 9 -1.27 89.6% -3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 1.25 = -1.27

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.25)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 15, AKR 9

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.6%

Win Probability (After): 86.4%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 9 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & 6 at AKR 23) Dylan McDuffie run for 5 yds to the Akron 18 - BUFF 15, AKR 9 -1.65 90.8% -4.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.00 - 1.65 = -1.65

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.65)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 15, AKR 9

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.8%

Win Probability (After): 86.4%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 9 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (3rd & 1 at AKR 18) Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the Akron 15 for a 1ST down - BUFF 15, AKR 9 -1.79 91.4% -4.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 1.74 = -1.79

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.74)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 15, AKR 9

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.4%

Win Probability (After): 86.8%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 9 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 31) DJ Irons sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 30 - BUFF 15, AKR 9 -0.08 14.2% -2.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - 0.03 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.97)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 15, AKR 9

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.2%

Win Probability (After): 12.1%

Away Score: 15 (15) Home Score: 9 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 18 at AKR 44) DJ Irons pass complete to Andre Williams BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Akron 29 - BUFF 21, AKR 9 -0.08 13.2% -8.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.14 - 0.13 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.05)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 21, AKR 9

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.2%

Win Probability (After): 4.9%

Away Score: 15 (21) Home Score: 9 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:50 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & Goal at AKR 2) Dylan McDuffie 2 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick) - BUFF 10, AKR 0 0.63 97.8% -4.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.37 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): 12 (18.37)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 10, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 93.7%

Away Score: 21 (10) Home Score: 9 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:44 ESPN team id 2006 (Kickoff at AKR 35) Alex McNulty kickoff for 65 yds , Michael Mathison return for 17 yds to the Akron 17 - BUFF 1, AKR 0 -1.37 8.7% 3.7%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 83

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.20 - 0.17 = -1.37

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.83)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-11.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 1, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.7%

Win Probability (After): 12.4%

Away Score: 10 (1) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:57 ESPN team id 2006 (4th & 3 at BUFF 18) Cory Smigel 35 Yd Field Goal - BUFF 10, AKR 3 0.50 22.8% -11.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 65

Started Drive at: AKR 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.50 = 0.50

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.50)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 10, AKR 3

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.8%

Win Probability (After): 11.8%

Away Score: 1 (10) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 6:57 ESPN team id 2084 (Kickoff at BUFF 35) Jerry Fitschen kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BUFF 1, AKR 0 -0.54 90.0% -7.4%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 1.62 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.62)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 1, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.0%

Win Probability (After): 82.6%

Away Score: 10 (1) Home Score: 3 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:32 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & Goal at AKR 2) Kyle Vantrease 2 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick) - BUFF 17, AKR 3 0.89 89.9% 6.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.11 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): 1 (7.11)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 17, AKR 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.9%

Win Probability (After): 96.4%

Away Score: 1 (17) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:27 ESPN team id 2006 (Kickoff at AKR 35) Alex McNulty kickoff for 58 yds , Michael Mathison return for 19 yds to the Akron 26 - BUFF 2, AKR 0 -0.68 4.8% 5.5%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 74

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.39 - 0.29 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.71)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 2, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.8%

Win Probability (After): 10.3%

Away Score: 17 (2) Home Score: 3 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:16 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 26) Jonzell Norrils 74 Yd Run (Cory Smigel Kick) - BUFF 17, AKR 10 5.71 21.2% -9.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.29 = 5.71

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.71)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 17, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.2%

Win Probability (After): 11.9%

Away Score: 2 (17) Home Score: 0 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:16 ESPN team id 2084 (Kickoff at BUFF 35) Jerry Fitschen kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BUFF 2, AKR 1 -0.18 91.3% -6.7%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.87 - 1.05 = -0.18

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.05)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 2, AKR 1

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.3%

Win Probability (After): 84.6%

Away Score: 17 (2) Home Score: 10 (1)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:58 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at AKR 15) Jamari Gassett 15 Yd pass from Kyle Vantrease (Alex McNulty Kick) - BUFF 24, AKR 10 3.01 88.1% 8.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.99 = 3.01

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.99)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 24, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.1%

Win Probability (After): 96.8%

Away Score: 2 (24) Home Score: 1 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:51 ESPN team id 2006 (Kickoff at AKR 35) Alex McNulty kickoff for 58 yds , Michael Mathison return for 24 yds to the Akron 31 - BUFF 3, AKR 1 0.03 4.3% 6.0%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 69

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.41 - 0.38 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.62)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 3, AKR 1

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.3%

Win Probability (After): 10.3%

Away Score: 24 (3) Home Score: 10 (1)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:39 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 11 at AKR 30) Jonzell Norrils run for 2 yds to the Akron 32 - BUFF 3, AKR 1 0.13 18.9% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 68

Started Drive at: AKR 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - 0.40 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.60)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 3, AKR 1

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.9%

Win Probability (After): 19.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 1 (1)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:34 ESPN team id 2006 (3rd & 9 at AKR 32) Jonzell Norrils run for 20 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST down - BUFF 24, AKR 10 0.93 19.6% -9.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 48

Started Drive at: AKR 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.42 - 0.49 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.51)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 24, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.6%

Win Probability (After): 10.3%

Away Score: 3 (24) Home Score: 1 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:27 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at BUFF 48) DJ Irons sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the Akron 44 - BUFF 24, AKR 10 -0.45 4.8% -0.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 56

Started Drive at: AKR 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 1.09 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.91)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 24, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.8%

Win Probability (After): 4.1%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:01 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 33 at AKR 29) DJ Irons pass complete to Michael Mathison for 18 yds to the Akron 35 - BUFF 24, AKR 10 -0.04 4.1% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 65

Started Drive at: AKR 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 0.04 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.96)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 24, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.1%

Win Probability (After): 4.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at BUFF 27) Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the Buff 33 - BUFF 24, AKR 10 0.06 97.4% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 67

Started Drive at: BUFF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.83 - 2.77 = 0.06

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.77)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 24, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.4%

Win Probability (After): 96.6%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & 4 at BUFF 33) Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 9 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST down - BUFF 24, AKR 10 0.58 97.3% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 58

Started Drive at: BUFF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 2.76 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.76)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 24, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.3%

Win Probability (After): 97.6%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at BUFF 42) Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 46 - BUFF 24, AKR 10 -0.19 97.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 54

Started Drive at: BUFF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.15 - 3.34 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.34)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 24, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.6%

Win Probability (After): 97.5%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & 6 at BUFF 46) Dylan McDuffie run for 22 yds to the Akron 32 for a 1ST down - BUFF 24, AKR 10 1.42 97.5% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 32

Started Drive at: BUFF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.58 - 3.15 = 1.42

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.15)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 24, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.5%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at AKR 32) Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the Akron 28 - BUFF 24, AKR 10 -0.20 97.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 28

Started Drive at: BUFF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.38 - 4.58 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.58)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 24, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & 6 at AKR 28) pass incomplete to Trevor Borland - BUFF 24, AKR 10 -0.83 97.8% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 28

Started Drive at: BUFF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.55 - 4.38 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.38)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 24, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.4%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & Goal at AKR 6) Ron Cook Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 7 - BUFF 24, AKR 10 -0.69 98.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 7

Started Drive at: BUFF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.21 - 5.90 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): 14 (19.90)

Score Difference (End): 14 (19.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 24, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.5%

Win Probability (After): 98.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 25) DJ Irons run for a loss of 4 yards to the Akron 21 DJ Irons fumbled, recovered by Akron Jonzell Norrils - BUFF 24, AKR 11 -0.64 4.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 79

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.04 - -0.41 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.41)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-14.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 24, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.2%

Win Probability (After): 4.1%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 10 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & Goal at AKR 8) Dylan McDuffie run for 6 yds to the Akron 2 - BUFF 33, AKR 11 0.46 98.0% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 2

Started Drive at: AKR 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.05 - 5.59 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): 13 (18.59)

Score Difference (End): 13 (19.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 33, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.0%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 24 (33) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & Goal at AKR 2) Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the Akron 1 - BUFF 33, AKR 11 -0.05 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 1

Started Drive at: AKR 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.22 - 6.27 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): 22 (28.27)

Score Difference (End): 22 (28.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 33, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 25) Jonzell Norrils run for 12 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST down - BUFF 33, AKR 11 0.94 0.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 63

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - -0.81 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): -22 (-22.81)

Score Difference (End): -22 (-21.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 33, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 33 (33) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 37) Jonzell Norrils run for 9 yds to the Akron 46 - BUFF 39, AKR 11 0.90 0.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 54

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.04 - 0.13 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): -22 (-21.87)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-26.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 39, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 33 (39) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 1 at AKR 46) pass incomplete to Michael Mathison - BUFF 39, AKR 11 -0.83 0.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - 1.04 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-26.96)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-27.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 39, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (3rd & 1 at AKR 46) DJ Irons run for 2 yds to the Akron 48 for a 1ST down - BUFF 39, AKR 11 0.46 0.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 52

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.68 - 0.21 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-27.79)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-27.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 39, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 48) pass incomplete to Konata Mumpfield - BUFF 39, AKR 11 -0.65 0.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.03 - 0.68 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-27.32)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-27.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 39, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at AKR 47) Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Bernard Porter for 41 yds to the Akron 6 for a 1ST down - BUFF 39, AKR 11 1.79 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 6

Started Drive at: AKR 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.03 - 4.24 = 1.79

Score Difference (Before): 28 (32.24)

Score Difference (End): 28 (34.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 39, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 1 play, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & Goal at AKR 6) Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Akron 4 - BUFF 39, AKR 11 -0.12 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 4

Started Drive at: AKR 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.90 - 6.03 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): 28 (34.03)

Score Difference (End): 28 (33.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 39, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 25) Jonzell Norrils run for 4 yds to the Akron 29 - BUFF 39, AKR 11 -0.11 0.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.28 - -1.17 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-29.17)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-29.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 39, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 6 at AKR 29) AKRON Penalty, false start (Tristian Brank) to the Akron 24 - BUFF 45, AKR 11 -0.58 0.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 76

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.86 - -1.28 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-29.28)

Score Difference (End): -34 (-35.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 39 (45) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 11 at AKR 24) Jonzell Norrils run for 10 yds to the Akron 34 - BUFF 45, AKR 11 1.40 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 66

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.47 - -1.86 = 1.40

Score Difference (Before): -34 (-35.86)

Score Difference (End): -34 (-34.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (3rd & 1 at AKR 34) Jonzell Norrils run for 2 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST down - BUFF 45, AKR 11 0.32 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 64

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.14 - -0.47 = 0.32

Score Difference (Before): -34 (-34.47)

Score Difference (End): -34 (-34.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 36) DJ Irons run for 13 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST down - BUFF 45, AKR 11 0.92 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 51

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.78 - -0.14 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): -34 (-34.14)

Score Difference (End): -34 (-33.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 49) DJ Irons pass incomplete to Oran Singleton Jr. for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, illegal use of hands (Daymond Williams) to the Buff 36 for a 1ST down - BUFF 45, AKR 11 1.39 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 36

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 0.78 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): -34 (-33.22)

Score Difference (End): -34 (-31.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at BUFF 36) Anthony Williams Jr. run for 22 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST down - BUFF 45, AKR 11 2.16 0.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 14

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.33 - 2.17 = 2.16

Score Difference (Before): -34 (-31.83)

Score Difference (End): -34 (-29.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at BUFF 14) DJ Irons run for 13 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST down - BUFF 45, AKR 11 1.78 0.2% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 1

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.11 - 4.33 = 1.78

Score Difference (Before): -34 (-29.67)

Score Difference (End): -34 (-27.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & Goal at BUFF 1) Anthony Williams Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 5 - BUFF 45, AKR 11 -1.24 0.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 5

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.88 - 6.11 = -1.24

Score Difference (Before): -34 (-27.89)

Score Difference (End): -34 (-29.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at BUFF 20) Dylan McDuffie run for 10 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST down - BUFF 45, AKR 11 0.37 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 70

Started Drive at: BUFF 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 2.91 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): 34 (36.91)

Score Difference (End): 34 (37.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at BUFF 30) nan - BUFF 45, AKR 11 -0.57 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: BUFF 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.71 - 3.28 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 34 (37.28)

Score Difference (End): 34 (36.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & 10 at BUFF 30) Kyle Vantrease run for 9 yds to the Buff 39 - BUFF 45, AKR 11 0.22 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 61

Started Drive at: BUFF 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.93 - 2.71 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): 34 (36.71)

Score Difference (End): 34 (36.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 11

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 11 (11)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 2084 (Kickoff at BUFF 35) Jerry Fitschen kickoff for 63 yds , Ron Cook Jr. return for 25 yds to the Buff 27 - BUFF 3, AKR 1 -1.03 99.8% -5.1%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 73

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.44 - 3.47 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): 34 (37.47)

Score Difference (End): 34 (36.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 3, AKR 1

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 94.6%

Away Score: 45 (3) Home Score: 11 (1)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:13 ESPN team id 2084 (3rd & 6 at AKR 28) Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 22 yds to the Akron 6 for a 1ST down - BUFF 3, AKR 1 2.26 85.0% 3.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 6

Started Drive at: BUFF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.38 - 3.12 = 2.26

Score Difference (Before): 2 (5.12)

Score Difference (End): 2 (7.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 3, AKR 1

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.0%

Win Probability (After): 88.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 1 (1)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:04 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & Goal at AKR 7) Dominic Johnson 7 Yd pass from Kyle Vantrease (Alex McNulty Kick) - BUFF 31, AKR 10 2.09 86.6% 12.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.91 = 2.09

Score Difference (Before): 2 (6.91)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 31, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.0%

Away Score: 3 (31) Home Score: 1 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:04 ESPN team id 2006 (Kickoff at AKR 35) Alex McNulty kickoff for 63 yds - BUFF 1, AKR 0 0.00 1.4% 7.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.25 - -1.25 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-22.25)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-22.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 1, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.4%

Win Probability (After): 8.5%

Away Score: 31 (1) Home Score: 10 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:18 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 14 at AKR 21) DJ Irons sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the Akron 8 - BUFF 1, AKR 0 -5.18 24.3% -10.6%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 8

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -5.42 - -0.23 = -5.18

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-1.23)

Score Difference (End): 1 (6.42)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 1, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.3%

Win Probability (After): 13.7%

Away Score: 1 (1) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:20 ESPN team id 2084 (3rd & Goal at AKR 1) Jake Molinich 1 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick) - BUFF 38, AKR 10 1.13 84.4% 15.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.87 = 1.13

Score Difference (Before): 1 (6.87)

Score Difference (End): 28 (28.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 38, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 1 (38) Home Score: 0 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:20 ESPN team id 2006 (Kickoff at AKR 35) Alex McNulty kickoff for 63 yds - BUFF 2, AKR 0 0.00 0.4% 5.7%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.53 - -1.53 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-29.53)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-29.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 2, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 6.1%

Away Score: 38 (2) Home Score: 10 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:28 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 10 at AKR 48) DJ Irons pass intercepted - BUFF 2, AKR 0 -4.99 28.9% -11.1%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 47

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.09 - 1.90 = -4.99

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.10)

Score Difference (End): 2 (5.09)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 2, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.9%

Win Probability (After): 17.8%

Away Score: 2 (2) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:18 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & Goal at AKR 4) Dylan McDuffie 4 Yd pass from Kyle Vantrease (Alex McNulty Kick) - BUFF 45, AKR 10 1.48 86.9% 12.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.52 = 1.48

Score Difference (Before): 2 (7.52)

Score Difference (End): 35 (35.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 2 (45) Home Score: 0 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:18 ESPN team id 2006 (Kickoff at AKR 35) Alex McNulty kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BUFF 3, AKR 0 0.00 0.1% 6.4%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.37 - -1.37 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -35 (-36.37)

Score Difference (End): -35 (-36.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 3, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 6.6%

Away Score: 45 (3) Home Score: 10 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:39 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & Goal at BUFF 5) DJ Irons run for 5 yds to the Buff 20 DJ Irons fumbled, recovered by Akron - BUFF 3, AKR 0 -6.50 41.0% -21.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 80

Started Drive at: AKR 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.17 - 5.33 = -6.50

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.33)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.17)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 3, AKR 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.0%

Win Probability (After): 19.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (3rd & 1 at BUFF 39) Dylan McDuffie run for 3 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST down - BUFF 45, AKR 10 2.41 95.4% 3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 58

Started Drive at: BUFF 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.55 - 0.13 = 2.41

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.13)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.4%

Win Probability (After): 98.7%

Away Score: 3 (45) Home Score: 0 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at BUFF 42) Mike Washington run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 39 - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -0.13 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 0.13 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): 35 (35.13)

Score Difference (End): 35 (34.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & 13 at BUFF 39) Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the Buff 45 - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -0.10 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 0.11 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): 35 (35.11)

Score Difference (End): 35 (35.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (3rd & 7 at BUFF 45) Matt Myers pass complete to Trevor Borland for 1 yd to the Buff 46 - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -0.13 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 0.15 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): 35 (35.15)

Score Difference (End): 35 (35.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 15) DJ Irons run for 14 yds to the Akron 29 for a 1ST down - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -0.01 0.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - -0.03 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): -35 (-35.03)

Score Difference (End): -35 (-35.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 29) pass incomplete to Andre Williams - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -0.04 0.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - -0.01 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -35 (-35.01)

Score Difference (End): -35 (-35.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 10 at AKR 29) Jonzell Norrils run for 3 yds to the Akron 32 - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -0.02 0.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - -0.02 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): -35 (-35.02)

Score Difference (End): -35 (-35.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (3rd & 7 at AKR 32) DJ Irons sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 25 - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -0.02 0.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - -0.03 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): -35 (-35.03)

Score Difference (End): -35 (-35.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at BUFF 33) Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 35 - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -0.04 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 0.06 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): 35 (35.06)

Score Difference (End): 35 (35.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & 8 at BUFF 35) Matt Myers pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 11 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST down - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -0.09 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 0.08 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): 35 (35.08)

Score Difference (End): 35 (34.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at BUFF 46) Khamran Laborn run for 5 yds to the Akron 49 - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -0.16 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 0.18 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): 35 (35.18)

Score Difference (End): 35 (35.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & 5 at AKR 49) Mike Washington run for 13 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST down - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -0.33 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 0.32 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): 35 (35.32)

Score Difference (End): 35 (34.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at AKR 48) Jonzell Norrils run for 11 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST down - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -0.20 0.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - 0.15 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): -35 (-34.85)

Score Difference (End): -35 (-35.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at BUFF 41) DJ Irons pass complete to Andre Williams for 12 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST down - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -0.46 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - 0.41 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): -35 (-34.59)

Score Difference (End): -35 (-35.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at BUFF 29) Jonzell Norrils run for 8 yds to the Buff 21 - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -0.80 0.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 0.77 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -35 (-34.23)

Score Difference (End): -35 (-35.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 2 at BUFF 21) DJ Irons sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 23 - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -1.21 0.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - 1.17 = -1.21

Score Difference (Before): -35 (-33.83)

Score Difference (End): -35 (-35.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (3rd & 4 at BUFF 23) nan - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -1.15 0.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - 1.10 = -1.15

Score Difference (Before): -35 (-33.90)

Score Difference (End): -35 (-35.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (4th & 4 at BUFF 23) DJ Irons pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 6 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST down - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -1.21 0.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - 1.17 = -1.21

Score Difference (Before): -35 (-33.83)

Score Difference (End): -35 (-35.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (2nd & 10 at BUFF 17) DJ Irons sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 18 - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -1.44 0.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - 1.39 = -1.44

Score Difference (Before): -35 (-33.61)

Score Difference (End): -35 (-35.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2006 (3rd & 11 at BUFF 18) pass incomplete - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -1.19 0.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 99

Started Drive at: AKR 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - 1.13 = -1.19

Score Difference (Before): -35 (-33.87)

Score Difference (End): -35 (-35.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at BUFF 38) Mike Washington run for 11 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST down - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -0.11 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 0.10 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): 35 (35.10)

Score Difference (End): 35 (34.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at BUFF 49) Mike Washington run for 15 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST down - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -0.29 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 0.29 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): 35 (35.29)

Score Difference (End): 35 (34.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at AKR 36) Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the Akron 33 - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -1.00 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 1.01 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): 35 (36.01)

Score Difference (End): 35 (35.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (2nd & 7 at AKR 33) nan - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -1.18 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 1.20 = -1.18

Score Difference (Before): 35 (36.20)

Score Difference (End): 35 (35.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (3rd & 7 at AKR 33) Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the Akron 27 - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -1.01 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.04 - 1.05 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): 35 (36.05)

Score Difference (End): 35 (35.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2084 (4th & 1 at AKR 27) Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the Akron 27 for a 1ST down - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -1.35 99.9% -12.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.04 - 1.39 = -1.35

Score Difference (Before): 35 (36.39)

Score Difference (End): 35 (35.04)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 87.1%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 12:29 ESPN team id 2084 (4th & 6 at BUFF 46) Jackson Baltar punt for 39 yds - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -0.91 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 99

Started Drive at: BUFF 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 0.96 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): 35 (35.96)

Score Difference (End): -35 (-35.05)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:41 ESPN team id 2006 (4th & 14 at AKR 25) Ethan Slike punt for 42 yds - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -0.30 0.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67

Started Drive at: AKR 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.00 - -2.70 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): -35 (-37.70)

Score Difference (End): 35 (38.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 8:14 ESPN team id 2084 (1st & 10 at AKR 36) Mike Washington run for a loss of 9 yards to the Akron 48 Mike Washington fumbled, recovered by Akron Randy Cochran Jr. - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -4.94 100.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 52

Started Drive at: BUFF 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.18 - 3.76 = -4.94

Score Difference (Before): 35 (38.76)

Score Difference (End): -35 (-33.82)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:37 ESPN team id 2006 (1st & 10 at BUFF 17) DJ Irons pass incomplete to Konata Mumpfield, broken up by Mark Davis Jr. - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -0.77 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: AKR 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.42 - 4.19 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): -35 (-30.81)

Score Difference (End): -35 (-31.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:32 ESPN team id 2006 (4th & 11 at BUFF 18) DJ Irons sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 23 BUFFALO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Shaun Dolac) to the Buff 38 - BUFF 45, AKR 10 -5.24 0.0% 100.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 62

Started Drive at: AKR 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.82 - 1.03 = -5.24

Score Difference (Before): -35 (-31.58)

Score Difference (End): 35 (36.82)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BUFF 45, AKR 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link