N Illinois 39 @ C Michigan 38

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 6.71 | Odds: CMU -6, O/U 56.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

Download Chart

Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 2459 ESPN team id 2117
Total Plays 8981
Total EPA 27.422.02
  Offensive EPA 27.5421.71
  Special Teams EPA 0.051.45
  Penalty EPA 2.030.23
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA -2.22-1.37
Production ESPN team id 2459 ESPN team id 2117
Scrimmage Plays 7770
  Yards 584563
  Yards/Play 7.588.04
  EPA 27.5421.71
  EPA/Play 0.360.31
Passes 30 (39%)41 (59%)
  Yards 351317
  Yards/Play 11.707.73
  EPA 29.7716.22
  EPA/Play 0.990.40
Rushes 47 (61%)29 (41%)
  Yards 256231
  Yards/Play 5.457.97
  EPA -2.235.50
  EPA/Play -0.050.19
Rushing ESPN team id 2459 ESPN team id 2117
Scrimmage Plays 7770
Rushes 47 (61%)29 (41%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 4 (9%)1 (3%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 2 (50%)1 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 6 (13%)6 (21%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 22 (47%)10 (34%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 20 (43%)18 (62%)
OL Line Yards 73.556.5
  Per Carry 1.561.95
Highlight Yards 90114.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 4.506.36
Explosiveness ESPN team id 2459 ESPN team id 2117
Total Plays 8981
Scrimmage Plays 7770
Explosive Plays 11 (14%)5 (7%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 8 (27%)4 (10%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 3 (6%)1 (3%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -14.01-1.00
  EPA/Play -0.21-0.02
  When Passing -6.23-1.40
    EPA/Play -0.21-0.03
  When Rushing -7.780.40
    EPA/Play -0.180.01
Situational ESPN team id 2459 ESPN team id 2117
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 36 (47%)39 (56%)
  When Passing 16 (53%)22 (54%)
  When Rushing 20 (43%)17 (59%)
  On Standard Downs 22 (44%)31 (65%)
  On Passing Downs 14 (52%)8 (36%)
  On Early Downs 24 (44%)32 (58%)
  On Late Downs 12 (55%)7 (47%)
  During "Middle 8" 5 (50%)6 (55%)
Early Downs 5555
  First Downs Created 12 (22%)17 (31%)
  EPA 19.509.52
  EPA/Play 0.350.17
  Passes 18 (33%)31 (56%)
  Rushes 37 (67%)24 (44%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 9 (50%)17 (55%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 15 (41%)15 (63%)
"Middle 8" Plays 1011
  EPA 2.30-0.27
  EPA/play 0.23-0.02
  Passes 4 (40%)6 (55%)
  Rushes 6 (60%)5 (45%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 3 (75%)5 (83%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 2 (33%)1 (20%)
Drives ESPN team id 2459 ESPN team id 2117
Total 1111
Avg Starting Field Position Own 27Own 30
Plays/Drive 9.977.80
Yards/Drive 54.7146.76
Available Yards % 75%67%
Defensive ESPN team id 2459 ESPN team id 2117
Scrimmage Plays 7077
Stop Rate 34%16%
Havoc Plays Created 0 (0%)2 (3%)
  Passing 0 (0%)2 (7%)
  Rushing 0 (0%)0 (0%)
TFLs Generated 02
  Passing 02
  Rushing 00
Sacks Generated 0 (0%)2 (7%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 00
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 2459 ESPN team id 2117
Turnovers 11
  Fumbles 11
  Fumbles Lost 11
  Fumbles Recovered 00
  Interceptions 00
Turnover Margin 00
Expected Turnovers 1.01.0
Expected Turnover Margin 0.00.0
Turnover Luck (pts) 0.00.0
Special Teams ESPN team id 2459 ESPN team id 2117
Total Plays 12 11
Total EPA 0.05 1.45
  Field Goal EPA 0.48 0.68
  Punting EPA -1.42 -0.58
  Kickoff Return EPA 0.99 1.34

Northern Illinois [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Rocky Lombardi 17/27, 348 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 2 Scks, 82.7 xQBR 12.00 0.95 27.59 52% 47.0%
Clint Ratkovich 1/1, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 58.4 xQBR 3.00 2.18 2.18 100% 5.0%
Rush attempts
Rocky Lombardi 4 carries, 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.50 0.56 2.25 75% 7.0%
Trayvon Rudolph 1 carry, 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 1.81 1.81 100% 23.0%
Jay Ducker 31 carries, 195 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.29 0.00 0.00 39% 4.0%
Mason Blakemore 3 carries, 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 -0.37 -1.12 33% -3.0%
Clint Ratkovich 6 carries, 6 yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 1.00 -0.48 -2.88 50% 9.0%
Pass targets
Trayvon Rudolph 6 catches (6 targets), 160 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 26.67 3.93 23.61 100% 31.0%
Tyrice Richie 8 catches (13 targets), 147 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 18.38 1.05 13.64 62% 38.0%
Miles Joiner 2 catches (2 targets), 28 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.00 0.13 0.26 50% 0.0%
Mohamed Toure 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.49 -0.49 0% -6.0%
Messiah Travis 2 catches (3 targets), 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 -0.30 -0.90 33% 0.0%
Clint Ratkovich 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.51 -1.51 0% -3.0%
Fabian McCray 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.12 -2.25 0% -4.0%

Central Michigan [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Daniel Richardson 23/38, 295 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 74.3 xQBR 7.76 0.42 15.87 53% 60.0%
Lew Nichols III 2/2, 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 72.8 xQBR 9.00 0.25 0.50 100% 1.0%
Kalil Pimpleton 1/1, 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 45.6 xQBR 4.00 -0.16 -0.16 0% 0.0%
Rush attempts
Lew Nichols III 22 carries, 194 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.82 0.33 7.27 64% 28.0%
Myles Bailey 2 carries, 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 0.16 0.32 50% -1.0%
Daniel Richardson 1 carry, 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.18 0.18 100% 0.0%
Marion Lukes 2 carries, 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.32 -0.65 50% -1.0%
Luke Elzinga 1 carry, 20 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 20.00 -1.25 -1.25 0% -47.0%
Pass targets
Kalil Pimpleton 6 catches (7 targets), 130 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 21.67 1.34 9.38 86% 19.0%
JaCorey Sullivan 6 catches (8 targets), 63 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.50 0.54 4.36 62% 2.0%
Dallas Dixon 2 catches (3 targets), 33 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.50 0.98 2.94 67% 54.0%
Joel Wilson 3 catches (6 targets), 16 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.33 0.37 2.20 33% -26.0%
Marion Lukes 2 catches (2 targets), 23 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.50 0.77 1.55 100% 6.0%
Myles Bailey 1 catch (1 target), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.16 -0.16 0% 0.0%
Lew Nichols III 6 catches (9 targets), 48 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 -0.09 -0.80 56% 18.0%
Remi Simmons 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.82 -0.82 0% -1.0%
Hunter Buczkowski 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.95 -0.95 0% -2.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q3 9:43 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 25) Trayvon Rudolph 75 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Miles Joiner Pass to Rocky Lombardi for Two-Point Conversion) - NIU 24, CMU 35 8.28 3.3% 7.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - -0.28 = 8.28

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.28)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 1 play, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.3%

Win Probability (After): 11.0%

Away Score: 18 (24) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:16 ESPN team id 2117 (3rd & 10 at CMU 28) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 72 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) - NIU 10, CMU 21 6.88 73.2% 14.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 99

Started Drive at: CMU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.12 = 6.88

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.12)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.2%

Win Probability (After): 87.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:44 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 34) Lew Nichols III run for 66 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) - NIU 0, CMU 7 5.10 69.9% 11.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 99

Started Drive at: CMU 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.90 = 5.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.90)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.9%

Win Probability (After): 81.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:42 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 11 at NIU 48) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 50 yds to the CMich 2 for a 1ST down - NIU 29, CMU 35 4.66 22.1% 19.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 2

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.28 - 1.62 = 4.66

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.38)

Score Difference (End): -6 (0.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 29, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.1%

Win Probability (After): 41.3%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:57 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 23 at NIU 41) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 46 yds to the CMich 13 for a 1ST down - NIU 7, CMU 14 4.58 21.1% 9.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 13

Started Drive at: NIU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.81 - 0.23 = 4.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.77)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.1%

Win Probability (After): 30.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:51 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 6 at CMU 38) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 14 yds to the CMich 24 for a 1ST down - NIU 0, CMU 7 4.42 20.5% 6.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 24

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.86 - -0.55 = 4.42

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.55)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.5%

Win Probability (After): 27.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:33 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CMU 15) Trayvon Rudolph 15 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Tristen Tewes Pass to Trayvon Rudolph for Two-Point Conversion) - NIU 18, CMU 28 4.07 11.2% 1.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.93 = 4.07

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.07)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.2%

Win Probability (After): 12.8%

Away Score: 10 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:53 ESPN team id 2117 (4th & Goal at NIU 4) Joel Wilson 4 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Marshall Meeder Kick) - NIU 18, CMU 35 3.96 91.4% 5.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.04 = 3.96

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.04)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.4%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 7:48 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 7 at CMU 21) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 21 yds for a TD, (Kanon Woodill KICK) - NIU 7, CMU 7 3.90 25.4% 10.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.10 = 3.90

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.90)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.4%

Win Probability (After): 35.6%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:59 ESPN team id 2117 (3rd & 9 at NIU 22) Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 22 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) - NIU 10, CMU 28 3.72 90.9% 1.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.28 = 3.72

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.28)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.9%

Win Probability (After): 92.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 0:48 ESPN team id 2117 (4th & 10 at NIU 47) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 22 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST down - NIU 39, CMU 38 3.05 29.5% 54.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 25

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 0.39 = 3.05

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.61)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 39, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.5%

Win Probability (After): 83.9%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:03 ESPN team id 2117 (4th & 7 at NIU 22) Luke Elzinga run for 20 yds to the NoIll 42 - NIU 39, CMU 38 -1.25 82.4% -47.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 58

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 2.46 = -1.25

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.46)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.21)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NIU 39, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.4%

Win Probability (After): 35.0%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:48 ESPN team id 2117 (3rd & 10 at NIU 47) Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Joel Wilson - NIU 39, CMU 38 -0.85 54.3% -24.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.39 - 1.24 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.24)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 39, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.3%

Win Probability (After): 29.5%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:31 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 1 at 50) Trayvon Rudolph run for 7 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST down - NIU 36, CMU 38 1.81 32.2% 23.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 43

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.45 - 0.63 = 1.81

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.37)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.2%

Win Probability (After): 55.4%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 13:42 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 11 at NIU 48) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 50 yds to the CMich 2 for a 1ST down - NIU 29, CMU 35 4.66 22.1% 19.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 2

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.28 - 1.62 = 4.66

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.38)

Score Difference (End): -6 (0.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 29, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.1%

Win Probability (After): 41.3%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:48 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 26) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 15 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST down - NIU 39, CMU 38 0.57 35.8% 17.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 59

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 0.64 = 0.57

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.36)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 39, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.8%

Win Probability (After): 53.7%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:31 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CMU 43) Jay Ducker run for 26 yds to the CMich 17 for a 1ST down - NIU 36, CMU 38 1.84 55.4% 16.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 17

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 2.45 = 1.84

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.45)

Score Difference (End): -2 (2.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.4%

Win Probability (After): 71.9%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:16 ESPN team id 2117 (3rd & 10 at CMU 28) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 72 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) - NIU 10, CMU 21 6.88 73.2% 14.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 99

Started Drive at: CMU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.12 = 6.88

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.12)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.2%

Win Probability (After): 87.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:44 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 34) Lew Nichols III run for 66 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) - NIU 0, CMU 7 5.10 69.9% 11.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 99

Started Drive at: CMU 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.90 = 5.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.90)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.9%

Win Probability (After): 81.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:47 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & Goal at CMU 1) Clint Ratkovich 1 Yd Run (Kanon Woodill Kick) - NIU 36, CMU 35 0.83 40.8% 10.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.17 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): -6 (0.17)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 81 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.8%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 29 (36) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 13:44 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 34) Lew Nichols III run for 66 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) - NIU 0, CMU 7 5.10 69.9% 11.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 99

Started Drive at: CMU 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.90 = 5.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.90)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.9%

Win Probability (After): 81.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:48 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 7 at CMU 21) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 21 yds for a TD, (Kanon Woodill KICK) - NIU 7, CMU 7 3.90 25.4% 10.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.10 = 3.90

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.90)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.4%

Win Probability (After): 35.6%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:03 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & Goal at NIU 1) Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) - NIU 7, CMU 14 0.71 71.1% 10.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: CMU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.29 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.29)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 14

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.1%

Win Probability (After): 81.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:02 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 4 at CMU 7) Kanon Woodill 26 yd FG GOOD - NIU 10, CMU 14 0.29 25.8% 0.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 65

Started Drive at: NIU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.71 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.29)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.8%

Win Probability (After): 26.2%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:16 ESPN team id 2117 (3rd & 10 at CMU 28) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 72 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) - NIU 10, CMU 21 6.88 73.2% 14.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 99

Started Drive at: CMU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.12 = 6.88

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.12)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.2%

Win Probability (After): 87.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:59 ESPN team id 2117 (3rd & 9 at NIU 22) Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 22 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) - NIU 10, CMU 28 3.72 90.9% 1.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.28 = 3.72

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.28)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.9%

Win Probability (After): 92.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:33 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CMU 15) Trayvon Rudolph 15 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Tristen Tewes Pass to Trayvon Rudolph for Two-Point Conversion) - NIU 18, CMU 28 4.07 11.2% 1.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.93 = 4.07

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.07)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.2%

Win Probability (After): 12.8%

Away Score: 10 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:53 ESPN team id 2117 (4th & Goal at NIU 4) Joel Wilson 4 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Marshall Meeder Kick) - NIU 18, CMU 35 3.96 91.4% 5.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.04 = 3.96

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.04)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.4%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:43 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 25) Trayvon Rudolph 75 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Miles Joiner Pass to Rocky Lombardi for Two-Point Conversion) - NIU 24, CMU 35 8.28 3.3% 7.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - -0.28 = 8.28

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.28)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 1 play, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.3%

Win Probability (After): 11.0%

Away Score: 18 (24) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:55 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & Goal at CMU 6) Kanon Woodill 24 Yd Field Goal - NIU 29, CMU 35 0.27 17.4% 3.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 65

Started Drive at: NIU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.73 = 0.27

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.27)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 29, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.4%

Win Probability (After): 20.5%

Away Score: 26 (29) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:47 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & Goal at CMU 1) Clint Ratkovich 1 Yd Run (Kanon Woodill Kick) - NIU 36, CMU 35 0.83 40.8% 10.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.17 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): -6 (0.17)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 81 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.8%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 29 (36) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:01 ESPN team id 2117 (4th & 11 at NIU 20) Marshall Meeder 38 Yd Field Goal - NIU 36, CMU 38 0.68 57.8% 9.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 65

Started Drive at: CMU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.32 = 0.68

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.32)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.8%

Win Probability (After): 67.7%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 35 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:54 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 1 at CMU 8) Kanon Woodill 26 Yd Field Goal - NIU 39, CMU 38 -0.08 66.7% 1.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 65

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.08 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 39, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.7%

Win Probability (After): 67.8%

Away Score: 36 (39) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 14:56 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 11) Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 9 yds to the CMich 20 - NIU 0, CMU 0 0.81 66.0% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 80

Started Drive at: CMU 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.94 - 0.13 = 0.81

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CMU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.0%

Win Probability (After): 66.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:56 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 1 at CMU 20) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 14 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST down - NIU 0, CMU 0 0.75 67.2% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 66

Started Drive at: CMU 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.79 - 1.04 = 0.75

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.04)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CMU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.2%

Win Probability (After): 68.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:44 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 34) Lew Nichols III run for 66 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) - NIU 0, CMU 7 5.10 69.9% 11.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 99

Started Drive at: CMU 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.90 = 5.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.90)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.9%

Win Probability (After): 81.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:44 ESPN team id 2459 (Kickoff at NIU 35) Josh Rolston kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NIU 0, CMU 7 0.00 23.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.22 - -0.22 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.22)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.7%

Win Probability (After): 23.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:44 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 25) Rocky Lombardi run for 6 yds to the NoIll 31 - NIU 0, CMU 7 0.46 23.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - -0.22 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.22)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.7%

Win Probability (After): 23.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:44 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 4 at NIU 31) Jay Ducker run for 16 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST down - NIU 0, CMU 7 1.33 23.6% 3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 53

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.58 - 0.24 = 1.33

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.76)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.6%

Win Probability (After): 26.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:44 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 47) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 9 yds to the CMich 44 - NIU 0, CMU 7 1.07 26.8% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 44

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.65 - 1.58 = 1.07

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.42)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.8%

Win Probability (After): 28.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:44 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 1 at CMU 44) Jay Ducker run for no gain to the CMich 44 - NIU 0, CMU 7 -0.77 28.2% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 2.65 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.35)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.2%

Win Probability (After): 26.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:44 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 1 at CMU 44) Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST down - NIU 0, CMU 7 0.53 26.9% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 42

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 1.87 = 0.53

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.13)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 28.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:44 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CMU 42) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyrice Richie - NIU 0, CMU 7 -0.68 28.2% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 42

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.72 - 2.40 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.60)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.2%

Win Probability (After): 26.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:44 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 10 at CMU 42) Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the CMich 38 - NIU 0, CMU 7 -0.52 26.8% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 38

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 1.72 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.28)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.8%

Win Probability (After): 26.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:51 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 10 at CMU 42) Timeout NORTHERNIL, clock 09:51 - NIU 0, CMU 7 0.00 22.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 38

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 1.21 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.79)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.5%

Win Probability (After): 22.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:51 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 6 at CMU 38) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for no gain to the CMich 38 - NIU 0, CMU 7 -1.95 23.4% -2.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 38

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.55 - 1.40 = -1.95

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.60)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.4%

Win Probability (After): 20.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:51 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 6 at CMU 38) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 14 yds to the CMich 24 for a 1ST down - NIU 0, CMU 7 4.42 20.5% 6.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 24

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.86 - -0.55 = 4.42

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.55)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.5%

Win Probability (After): 27.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 9:51 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CMU 24) Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the CMich 21 - NIU 0, CMU 7 0.05 27.2% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 21

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 3.86 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.14)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.2%

Win Probability (After): 27.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:51 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 7 at CMU 21) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyrice Richie - NIU 0, CMU 7 -0.78 27.7% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.13 - 3.92 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.08)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.7%

Win Probability (After): 25.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:48 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 7 at CMU 21) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 21 yds for a TD, (Kanon Woodill KICK) - NIU 7, CMU 7 3.90 25.4% 10.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.10 = 3.90

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.90)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.4%

Win Probability (After): 35.6%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:42 ESPN team id 2117 (Kickoff at CMU 35) Kanon Woodill kickoff for 55 yds , Myles Bailey return for 20 yds to the CMich 30 - NIU 7, CMU 7 0.61 67.0% 0.7%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 70

Started Drive at: CMU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.62 - 1.02 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.0%

Win Probability (After): 67.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:42 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 30) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 6 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Personal Foul (Raishein Thomas) to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST down - NIU 7, CMU 7 1.36 67.9% 3.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 49

Started Drive at: CMU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.98 - 1.61 = 1.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.9%

Win Probability (After): 71.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:42 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at NIU 49) Lew Nichols III run for 8 yds to the NoIll 41 - NIU 7, CMU 7 0.62 71.6% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 41

Started Drive at: CMU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.60 - 2.98 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.6%

Win Probability (After): 72.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:42 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 2 at NIU 41) Lew Nichols III run for 7 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST down - NIU 7, CMU 7 0.25 72.1% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 34

Started Drive at: CMU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.85 - 3.60 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.60)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.1%

Win Probability (After): 72.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:42 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at NIU 34) Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Lew Nichols III - NIU 7, CMU 7 -0.59 72.7% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: CMU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.26 - 3.85 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.85)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.7%

Win Probability (After): 72.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:42 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 10 at NIU 34) Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 5 yds to the NoIll 29 - NIU 7, CMU 7 -0.13 72.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 29

Started Drive at: CMU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.13 - 3.26 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.26)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.2%

Win Probability (After): 71.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:42 ESPN team id 2117 (3rd & 5 at NIU 29) Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 11 yds to the NoIll 18 for a 1ST down - NIU 7, CMU 7 1.72 71.3% 3.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 18

Started Drive at: CMU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.86 - 3.13 = 1.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.3%

Win Probability (After): 75.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:42 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at NIU 18) Kalil Pimpleton pass complete to Myles Bailey for 4 yds to the NoIll 14 - NIU 7, CMU 7 -0.16 75.2% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 14

Started Drive at: CMU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.70 - 4.86 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.2%

Win Probability (After): 74.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:42 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 6 at NIU 14) Myles Bailey run for 8 yds to the NoIll 6 for a 1ST down - NIU 7, CMU 7 1.01 74.9% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 6

Started Drive at: CMU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.71 - 4.70 = 1.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.70)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.9%

Win Probability (After): 76.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:42 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & Goal at NIU 6) Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the NoIll 1 - NIU 7, CMU 7 0.54 76.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 1

Started Drive at: CMU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.25 - 5.71 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.71)

Score Difference (End): 0 (6.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.3%

Win Probability (After): 76.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:03 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & Goal at NIU 1) Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) - NIU 7, CMU 14 0.71 71.1% 10.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: CMU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.29 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.29)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 14

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.1%

Win Probability (After): 81.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:57 ESPN team id 2459 (Kickoff at NIU 35) Josh Rolston kickoff for 59 yds , Trayvon Rudolph return for 11 yds to the NoIll 17 - NIU 7, CMU 14 -0.31 22.1% -0.5%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 83

Started Drive at: NIU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.36 - -0.05 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.05)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.1%

Win Probability (After): 21.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:57 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 17) Jay Ducker run for 27 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST down - NIU 7, CMU 14 1.89 21.6% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 56

Started Drive at: NIU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - -0.36 = 1.89

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.36)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.6%

Win Probability (After): 23.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:57 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 44) Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 42 - NIU 7, CMU 14 -1.07 23.2% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 58

Started Drive at: NIU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - 1.53 = -1.07

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.47)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.2%

Win Probability (After): 21.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:57 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 12 at NIU 42) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 7 yds to the NoIll 49 - NIU 7, CMU 14 0.21 21.4% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 51

Started Drive at: NIU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.67 - 0.46 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.54)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.4%

Win Probability (After): 22.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:57 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 5 at NIU 49) Rocky Lombardi run for 5 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST down - NIU 7, CMU 14 1.61 22.4% 3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 46

Started Drive at: NIU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.28 - 0.67 = 1.61

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.33)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.4%

Win Probability (After): 25.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:57 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CMU 46) PENALTY NIU False Start 5 yards from CMU46 to NIU49. NO PLAY. - NIU 7, CMU 14 -0.95 25.5% -2.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 51

Started Drive at: NIU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.33 - 2.28 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.72)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.5%

Win Probability (After): 22.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:57 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 15 at NIU 49) Rocky Lombardi sacked by Troy Hairston II for a loss of 8 yards to the NoIll 41 - NIU 7, CMU 14 -1.10 22.7% -1.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 59

Started Drive at: NIU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.23 - 1.33 = -1.10

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.67)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.7%

Win Probability (After): 21.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:57 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 23 at NIU 41) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 46 yds to the CMich 13 for a 1ST down - NIU 7, CMU 14 4.58 21.1% 9.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 13

Started Drive at: NIU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.81 - 0.23 = 4.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.77)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.1%

Win Probability (After): 30.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CMU 13) Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the CMich 7 - NIU 7, CMU 14 0.39 32.0% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 7

Started Drive at: NIU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.17 - 4.78 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.22)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-1.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.0%

Win Probability (After): 30.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 4 at CMU 7) Jay Ducker run for no gain to the CMich 7 - NIU 7, CMU 14 -0.90 29.2% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 7

Started Drive at: NIU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.19 - 5.09 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.91)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.2%

Win Probability (After): 27.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 4 at CMU 7) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Clint Ratkovich - NIU 7, CMU 14 -1.51 27.1% -3.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 7

Started Drive at: NIU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.68 - 4.19 = -1.51

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.81)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CMU 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.1%

Win Probability (After): 23.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:02 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 4 at CMU 7) Kanon Woodill 26 yd FG GOOD - NIU 10, CMU 14 0.29 25.8% 0.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 65

Started Drive at: NIU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.71 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.29)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.8%

Win Probability (After): 26.2%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:57 ESPN team id 2117 (Kickoff at CMU 35) Kanon Woodill kickoff for 64 yds , Myles Bailey return for 27 yds to the CMich 28 - NIU 10, CMU 14 0.24 75.3% 0.4%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 72

Started Drive at: CMU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.77 - 1.53 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.53)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.3%

Win Probability (After): 75.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:57 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 28) Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the CMich 28 - NIU 10, CMU 14 -0.74 75.5% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 72

Started Drive at: CMU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 1.77 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.77)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.5%

Win Probability (After): 74.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:57 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 10 at CMU 28) Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Hunter Buczkowski - NIU 10, CMU 14 -0.95 74.8% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 72

Started Drive at: CMU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.08 - 1.03 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.03)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.8%

Win Probability (After): 73.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:16 ESPN team id 2117 (3rd & 10 at CMU 28) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 72 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) - NIU 10, CMU 21 6.88 73.2% 14.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 99

Started Drive at: CMU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.12 = 6.88

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.12)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.2%

Win Probability (After): 87.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:16 ESPN team id 2459 (Kickoff at NIU 35) Josh Rolston kickoff for 56 yds - NIU 10, CMU 21 1.05 15.3% 0.8%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: NIU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 0.05 = 1.05

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.95)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.3%

Win Probability (After): 16.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:16 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 35) Mason Blakemore run for 11 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST down - NIU 10, CMU 21 0.69 16.1% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 54

Started Drive at: NIU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.79 - 1.10 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.90)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.1%

Win Probability (After): 17.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:16 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 46) Mason Blakemore run for 2 yds to the NoIll 48 - NIU 10, CMU 21 -0.43 17.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 52

Started Drive at: NIU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 1.79 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.21)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.7%

Win Probability (After): 17.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:16 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 8 at NIU 48) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyrice Richie - NIU 10, CMU 21 -0.87 17.4% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: NIU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.49 - 1.35 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.65)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.4%

Win Probability (After): 15.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:16 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 8 at NIU 48) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Messiah Travis - NIU 10, CMU 21 -1.62 15.5% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: NIU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.13 - 0.49 = -1.62

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.51)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-12.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.5%

Win Probability (After): 13.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:59 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 8 at NIU 48) Matt Ference punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 11 - NIU 10, CMU 21 -0.66 11.3% -0.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 89

Started Drive at: NIU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.59 - -0.93 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.93)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.59)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.3%

Win Probability (After): 11.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:59 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 11) Lew Nichols III run for 7 yds to the CMich 18 - NIU 10, CMU 21 0.48 88.1% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 82

Started Drive at: CMU 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - 1.54 = 0.48

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.54)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.1%

Win Probability (After): 89.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:59 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 3 at CMU 18) Lew Nichols III pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 5 yds to the CMich 23 for a 1ST down - NIU 10, CMU 21 0.17 89.0% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 77

Started Drive at: CMU 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.19 - 2.02 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.02)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.0%

Win Probability (After): 89.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:59 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 23) PENALTY CMU False Start (Smith,Keegan) 5 yards from CMU23 to CMU18. NO PLAY. - NIU 10, CMU 21 -0.42 89.4% -1.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 82

Started Drive at: CMU 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.78 - 2.19 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.19)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.4%

Win Probability (After): 88.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:59 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 15 at CMU 18) Lew Nichols III run for 25 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST down - NIU 10, CMU 21 1.48 88.3% 3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 57

Started Drive at: CMU 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.25 - 1.78 = 1.48

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.78)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.3%

Win Probability (After): 91.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:59 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 43) Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 7 yds to the 50 yard line - NIU 10, CMU 21 0.30 91.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 50

Started Drive at: CMU 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.56 - 3.25 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.25)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.3%

Win Probability (After): 91.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:59 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 3 at 50) Marion Lukes run for no gain to the 50 yard line - NIU 10, CMU 21 -0.86 91.4% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: CMU 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.70 - 3.56 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.56)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.4%

Win Probability (After): 90.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:59 ESPN team id 2117 (3rd & 3 at 50) Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to JaCorey Sullivan - NIU 10, CMU 21 -1.89 90.6% -3.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: CMU 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - 2.70 = -1.89

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.70)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.6%

Win Probability (After): 87.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:54 ESPN team id 2117 (4th & 3 at 50) Luke Elzinga punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyrice Richie at the NoIll 8 - NIU 10, CMU 21 0.58 87.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 92

Started Drive at: CMU 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.87 - 0.28 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.28)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.87)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.5%

Win Probability (After): 87.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 8:54 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 8) Jay Ducker run for no gain to the NoIll 8 - NIU 10, CMU 21 -0.53 10.7% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 92

Started Drive at: NIU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.17 - -0.64 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.64)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-12.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.7%

Win Probability (After): 10.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:54 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 10 at NIU 8) Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the NoIll 12 - NIU 10, CMU 21 -0.29 10.3% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 88

Started Drive at: NIU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.46 - -1.17 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-12.17)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-12.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.3%

Win Probability (After): 9.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:54 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 6 at NIU 12) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Fabian McCray - NIU 10, CMU 21 -0.97 9.6% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 88

Started Drive at: NIU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.43 - -1.46 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-12.46)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-13.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.6%

Win Probability (After): 8.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:31 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 6 at NIU 12) Matt Ference punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the NoIll 49 - NIU 10, CMU 21 -0.76 8.9% 0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 49

Started Drive at: NIU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.25 - -2.49 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-13.49)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.25)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.9%

Win Probability (After): 9.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 7:31 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at NIU 49) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Marion Lukes for 7 yds to the NoIll 42 - NIU 10, CMU 21 0.34 89.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 42

Started Drive at: NIU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.57 - 3.23 = 0.34

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.23)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.7%

Win Probability (After): 89.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:31 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 3 at NIU 42) Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST down - NIU 10, CMU 21 0.21 89.7% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 38

Started Drive at: NIU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.78 - 3.57 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.57)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.7%

Win Probability (After): 89.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:31 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at NIU 38) Daniel Richardson run for 5 yds to the NoIll 33 - NIU 10, CMU 21 0.18 89.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 33

Started Drive at: NIU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.97 - 3.78 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.78)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.9%

Win Probability (After): 89.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:31 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 5 at NIU 33) Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Remi Simmons - NIU 10, CMU 21 -0.82 89.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33

Started Drive at: NIU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.14 - 3.97 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.97)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.8%

Win Probability (After): 89.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:31 ESPN team id 2117 (3rd & 5 at NIU 33) Lew Nichols III run for 10 yds to the NoIll 23 for a 1ST down - NIU 10, CMU 21 1.40 89.3% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 23

Started Drive at: NIU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.55 - 3.14 = 1.40

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.14)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.3%

Win Probability (After): 90.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:31 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at NIU 23) Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the NoIll 22 - NIU 10, CMU 21 -0.44 90.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 22

Started Drive at: NIU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.11 - 4.55 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.55)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.5%

Win Probability (After): 90.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:31 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 9 at NIU 22) Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Joel Wilson - NIU 10, CMU 21 -0.74 90.3% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: NIU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.36 - 4.11 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.11)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.3%

Win Probability (After): 89.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:05 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 9 at NIU 22) Timeout NORTHERNIL, clock 05:05 - NIU 10, CMU 21 0.00 91.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: NIU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.36 - 3.36 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.36)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.5%

Win Probability (After): 91.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:59 ESPN team id 2117 (3rd & 9 at NIU 22) Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 22 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) - NIU 10, CMU 28 3.72 90.9% 1.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.28 = 3.72

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.28)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.9%

Win Probability (After): 92.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:53 ESPN team id 2459 (Kickoff at NIU 35) Josh Rolston kickoff for 65 yds , Trayvon Rudolph return for 21 yds to the NoIll 21 - NIU 10, CMU 28 -0.13 6.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 79

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 0.51 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.49)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.6%

Win Probability (After): 6.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:53 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 21) Jay Ducker run for 13 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST down - NIU 10, CMU 28 0.84 6.3% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 66

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.25 - 0.41 = 0.84

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.59)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-16.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.3%

Win Probability (After): 6.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:53 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 34) Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 36 - NIU 10, CMU 28 -0.41 6.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 64

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.85 - 1.25 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-16.75)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.8%

Win Probability (After): 6.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:53 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 8 at NIU 36) Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 38 - NIU 10, CMU 28 -0.29 6.9% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 62

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 0.85 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.15)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.9%

Win Probability (After): 6.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:53 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 6 at NIU 38) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for 28 yds to the CENTMICH 34 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Fabian McCray) to the CMich 44 for a 1ST down - NIU 10, CMU 28 2.21 6.5% 2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 44

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.76 - 0.55 = 2.21

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.45)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-15.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.5%

Win Probability (After): 8.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:53 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CMU 44) Rocky Lombardi sacked by Gage Kreski for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 49 - NIU 10, CMU 28 -1.49 8.8% -1.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 49

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.27 - 2.76 = -1.49

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-15.24)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-16.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.8%

Win Probability (After): 7.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:53 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 15 at CMU 49) Jay Ducker run for 5 yds to the CMich 44 - NIU 10, CMU 28 0.25 7.2% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 44

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.52 - 1.27 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-16.73)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-16.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.2%

Win Probability (After): 7.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:53 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 10 at CMU 44) Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the CMich 43 - NIU 10, CMU 28 -1.55 7.4% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 43

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 1.52 = -1.55

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-16.48)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.4%

Win Probability (After): 6.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:34 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 10 at CMU 44) Timeout CENTRAL MICH, clock 01:34 - NIU 10, CMU 28 0.00 6.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 43

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - -0.03 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.03)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.1%

Win Probability (After): 6.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:34 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 9 at CMU 43) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 15 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST down - NIU 10, CMU 28 2.77 5.6% 3.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 28

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.01 - 0.24 = 2.77

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.76)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-14.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 9.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:34 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CMU 28) Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the CMich 31 - NIU 10, CMU 28 -1.27 9.0% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 31

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.74 - 3.01 = -1.27

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.99)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-16.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.0%

Win Probability (After): 7.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:34 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 13 at CMU 31) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyrice Richie - NIU 10, CMU 28 -0.50 7.6% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 31

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.24 - 1.74 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-16.26)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-16.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.6%

Win Probability (After): 6.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:34 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 13 at CMU 31) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Messiah Travis for 11 yds to the CMich 20 - NIU 10, CMU 28 0.86 6.5% 2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 20

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.10 - 1.24 = 0.86

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-16.76)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-15.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.5%

Win Probability (After): 8.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:39 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 13 at CMU 31) Timeout NORTHERNIL, clock 00:39 - NIU 10, CMU 28 0.00 6.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 20

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.10 - 2.10 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-15.90)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-15.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.7%

Win Probability (After): 6.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:39 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 2 at CMU 20) PENALTY CMU Offside (Bristol,Jacques) 5 yards from CMU20 to CMU15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. - NIU 10, CMU 28 1.86 7.8% 3.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 15

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.94 - 2.09 = 1.86

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-15.91)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-14.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.8%

Win Probability (After): 11.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:33 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CMU 15) Trayvon Rudolph 15 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Tristen Tewes Pass to Trayvon Rudolph for Two-Point Conversion) - NIU 18, CMU 28 4.07 11.2% 1.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.93 = 4.07

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.07)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.2%

Win Probability (After): 12.8%

Away Score: 10 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:27 ESPN team id 2117 (Kickoff at CMU 35) Kanon Woodill kickoff for 55 yds , Marion Lukes return for 13 yds to the CMich 23 - NIU 18, CMU 28 0.07 88.3% 0.4%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 77

Started Drive at: CMU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 0.36 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.36)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.3%

Win Probability (After): 88.6%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:27 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 23) Lew Nichols III run for 8 yds to the CMich 31 - NIU 18, CMU 28 0.23 88.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 69

Started Drive at: CMU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 0.33 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.33)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.3%

Win Probability (After): 88.2%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:23 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 23) Timeout CENTRAL MICH, clock 00:23 - NIU 18, CMU 28 0.00 88.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 69

Started Drive at: CMU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 0.56 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.56)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.1%

Win Probability (After): 88.1%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:23 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 2 at CMU 31) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 9 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST down - NIU 18, CMU 28 0.09 87.8% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 60

Started Drive at: CMU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.54 - 0.45 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.45)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.8%

Win Probability (After): 88.1%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:23 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 40) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 2 yds to the CMich 42 - NIU 18, CMU 28 0.01 88.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 58

Started Drive at: CMU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 0.54 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.54)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.1%

Win Probability (After): 88.1%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:12 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 40) Timeout CENTRAL MICH, clock 00:12 - NIU 18, CMU 28 0.00 88.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 58

Started Drive at: CMU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 0.55 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.55)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.2%

Win Probability (After): 88.2%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:12 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 8 at CMU 42) Lew Nichols III pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 13 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST down - NIU 18, CMU 28 0.33 88.1% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 45

Started Drive at: CMU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.72 - 0.39 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.39)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.1%

Win Probability (After): 89.0%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at NIU 45) run for no gain to the NoIll 45 - NIU 18, CMU 28 -0.39 88.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45

Started Drive at: CMU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.70 - 0.39 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.39)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.9%

Win Probability (After): 88.9%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2459 (Kickoff at NIU 35) Josh Rolston kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NIU 18, CMU 28 0.00 11.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - -0.06 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.06)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.1%

Win Probability (After): 11.1%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 25) Jay Ducker run for 11 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST down - NIU 18, CMU 28 1.05 11.1% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 64

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - -0.06 = 1.05

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.06)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.1%

Win Probability (After): 11.8%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 36) Jay Ducker run for 7 yds to the NoIll 43 - NIU 18, CMU 28 0.61 11.8% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 57

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 0.99 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.01)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.8%

Win Probability (After): 13.2%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 3 at NIU 43) Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 45 - NIU 18, CMU 28 -0.34 13.2% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 55

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 1.60 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.40)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.2%

Win Probability (After): 11.6%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 1 at NIU 45) Clint Ratkovich run for no gain to the NoIll 45 - NIU 18, CMU 28 -1.73 11.6% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.47 - 1.26 = -1.73

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.74)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.6%

Win Probability (After): 10.2%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:28 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 1 at NIU 45) Clint Ratkovich run for no gain to the NoIll 45 - NIU 18, CMU 28 -3.23 12.4% -2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 45

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.52 - -0.29 = -3.23

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.29)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.52)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.4%

Win Probability (After): 9.8%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 12:28 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at NIU 45) Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the NoIll 41 - NIU 18, CMU 28 -0.13 89.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 41

Started Drive at: NIU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.46 - 3.59 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.59)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.7%

Win Probability (After): 89.7%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:28 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 6 at NIU 41) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 20 yds to the NoIll 21 for a 1ST down - NIU 18, CMU 28 1.40 89.7% 1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 21

Started Drive at: NIU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.87 - 3.46 = 1.40

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.46)

Score Difference (End): 10 (14.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.7%

Win Probability (After): 91.6%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:28 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at NIU 21) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 11 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST down - NIU 18, CMU 28 0.46 91.6% 1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 10

Started Drive at: NIU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.33 - 4.87 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): 10 (14.87)

Score Difference (End): 10 (15.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.6%

Win Probability (After): 93.4%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:28 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & Goal at NIU 10) Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the NoIll 10 - NIU 18, CMU 28 -0.60 93.4% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: NIU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.72 - 5.33 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 10 (15.33)

Score Difference (End): 10 (14.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.4%

Win Probability (After): 91.9%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:28 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & Goal at NIU 10) Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Lew Nichols III - NIU 18, CMU 28 -0.86 91.9% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: NIU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.86 - 4.72 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 10 (14.72)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.9%

Win Probability (After): 90.2%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:28 ESPN team id 2117 (3rd & Goal at NIU 10) Lew Nichols III run for 6 yds to the NoIll 4 - NIU 18, CMU 28 -0.82 90.2% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 4

Started Drive at: NIU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.04 - 3.86 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.86)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.2%

Win Probability (After): 90.4%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:53 ESPN team id 2117 (4th & Goal at NIU 4) Joel Wilson 4 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Marshall Meeder Kick) - NIU 18, CMU 35 3.96 91.4% 5.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.04 = 3.96

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.04)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.4%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 28 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:53 ESPN team id 2459 (Kickoff at NIU 35) Josh Rolston kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NIU 18, CMU 35 0.00 3.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.27 - -0.27 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.27)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 18, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.4%

Win Probability (After): 3.4%

Away Score: 18 (18) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:43 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 25) Trayvon Rudolph 75 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Miles Joiner Pass to Rocky Lombardi for Two-Point Conversion) - NIU 24, CMU 35 8.28 3.3% 7.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - -0.28 = 8.28

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.28)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 1 play, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.3%

Win Probability (After): 11.0%

Away Score: 18 (24) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:42 ESPN team id 2117 (Kickoff at CMU 35) Kanon Woodill kickoff for 38 yds , Keegan Cossou return for no gain to the CMich 27 - NIU 24, CMU 35 0.23 91.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 73

Started Drive at: CMU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 2.20 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.20)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.4%

Win Probability (After): 91.6%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:42 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 27) Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 28 - NIU 26, CMU 35 -1.20 91.7% -3.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 72

Started Drive at: CMU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.23 - 2.44 = -1.20

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.44)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 26, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.7%

Win Probability (After): 87.9%

Away Score: 24 (26) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:42 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 9 at CMU 28) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 3 yds to the CMich 25 - NIU 26, CMU 35 -1.41 87.9% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 75

Started Drive at: CMU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.18 - 1.23 = -1.41

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.23)

Score Difference (End): 9 (8.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 26, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.9%

Win Probability (After): 86.7%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:42 ESPN team id 2117 (3rd & 12 at CMU 25) Daniel Richardson pass incomplete - NIU 26, CMU 35 -1.09 86.7% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: CMU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.27 - -0.18 = -1.09

Score Difference (Before): 9 (8.82)

Score Difference (End): 9 (7.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 26, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.7%

Win Probability (After): 83.6%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:14 ESPN team id 2117 (4th & 12 at CMU 25) Luke Elzinga punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 44 - NIU 26, CMU 35 -0.58 85.6% -1.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 56

Started Drive at: CMU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.81 - -1.23 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 9 (7.77)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.19)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NIU 26, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.6%

Win Probability (After): 84.1%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 8:14 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 44) Jay Ducker run for 15 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST down - NIU 26, CMU 35 1.13 14.6% 3.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 41

Started Drive at: NIU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.83 - 1.70 = 1.13

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.30)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-6.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 26, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.6%

Win Probability (After): 18.5%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:14 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CMU 41) run for 15 yds to the NoIll 44 - NIU 26, CMU 35 -2.29 18.5% -5.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 56

Started Drive at: NIU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.54 - 2.83 = -2.29

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.17)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 26, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.5%

Win Probability (After): 12.9%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:14 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 25 at NIU 44) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 28 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST down - NIU 26, CMU 35 3.30 12.9% 7.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 28

Started Drive at: NIU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.84 - 0.54 = 3.30

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.46)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-5.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 26, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.9%

Win Probability (After): 20.5%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:14 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CMU 28) Mason Blakemore run for 2 yds to the CMich 30 - NIU 26, CMU 35 -1.37 20.5% -4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 30

Started Drive at: NIU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 3.84 = -1.37

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-5.16)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-6.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 26, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.5%

Win Probability (After): 16.5%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:14 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 12 at CMU 30) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyrice Richie - NIU 26, CMU 35 -1.03 16.5% -2.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: NIU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.43 - 2.47 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.53)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 26, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.5%

Win Probability (After): 13.8%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:14 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 12 at CMU 30) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 10 yds to the CMich 20 - NIU 26, CMU 35 1.19 13.8% 3.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 20

Started Drive at: NIU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.62 - 1.43 = 1.19

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.57)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-6.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 26, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.8%

Win Probability (After): 17.5%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:14 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 2 at CMU 20) Clint Ratkovich pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 3 yds to the CMich 17 for a 1ST down - NIU 26, CMU 35 2.18 17.5% 5.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 17

Started Drive at: NIU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.80 - 2.62 = 2.18

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.38)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-4.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 26, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.5%

Win Probability (After): 22.6%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 8:14 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CMU 17) Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the CMich 16 - NIU 26, CMU 35 -0.52 22.6% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 16

Started Drive at: NIU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.28 - 4.80 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-4.20)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-4.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 26, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.6%

Win Probability (After): 21.6%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:14 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 9 at CMU 16) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 7 yds to the CMich 9 - NIU 26, CMU 35 0.39 21.6% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 9

Started Drive at: NIU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.67 - 4.28 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-4.72)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-4.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 26, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 81 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.6%

Win Probability (After): 21.8%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:14 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 2 at CMU 9) Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds to the CMich 7 for a 1ST down - NIU 26, CMU 35 0.79 21.8% 1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 7

Started Drive at: NIU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.46 - 4.67 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-4.33)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-3.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 26, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.8%

Win Probability (After): 23.6%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:14 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & Goal at CMU 7) PENALTY NIU False Start (Soraghan,Liam) 5 yards from CMU07 to CMU12. NO PLAY. - NIU 26, CMU 35 -0.89 23.6% -2.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 12

Started Drive at: NIU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.58 - 5.46 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-3.54)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-4.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 26, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.6%

Win Probability (After): 21.3%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:14 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & Goal at CMU 12) Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the CMich 11 - NIU 26, CMU 35 -0.44 21.3% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 11

Started Drive at: NIU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.13 - 4.58 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-4.42)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-4.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 26, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.3%

Win Probability (After): 20.5%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:14 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & Goal at CMU 11) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Messiah Travis for 5 yds to the CMich 6 - NIU 26, CMU 35 -0.14 20.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 6

Started Drive at: NIU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.99 - 4.13 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-4.87)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-5.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 26, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.5%

Win Probability (After): 20.7%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:14 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & Goal at CMU 6) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Fabian McCray - NIU 26, CMU 35 -1.28 20.7% -3.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: NIU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.71 - 3.99 = -1.28

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-5.01)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-6.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 26, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.7%

Win Probability (After): 17.2%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:55 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & Goal at CMU 6) Kanon Woodill 24 Yd Field Goal - NIU 29, CMU 35 0.27 17.4% 3.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 65

Started Drive at: NIU 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.73 = 0.27

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.27)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 29, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.4%

Win Probability (After): 20.5%

Away Score: 26 (29) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 0:50 ESPN team id 2117 (Kickoff at CMU 35) Kanon Woodill kickoff for 60 yds , Marion Lukes return for 21 yds to the CMich 26 - NIU 29, CMU 35 0.21 82.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 74

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.70 - 1.49 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.49)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 29, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.4%

Win Probability (After): 82.5%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:50 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 26) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 7 yds to the CMich 33 - NIU 29, CMU 35 0.27 82.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 67

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - 1.70 = 0.27

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.70)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 29, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.5%

Win Probability (After): 82.4%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 3 at CMU 33) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 9 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST down - NIU 29, CMU 35 0.55 84.4% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 58

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - 1.94 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.94)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 29, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.4%

Win Probability (After): 85.5%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 42) Lew Nichols III run for 7 yds to the CMich 49 - NIU 29, CMU 35 0.39 87.0% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 51

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.85 - 2.46 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.46)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 29, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.0%

Win Probability (After): 87.9%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 3 at CMU 49) Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to JaCorey Sullivan - NIU 29, CMU 35 -1.00 87.9% -3.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 51

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.84 - 2.85 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.85)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 29, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.9%

Win Probability (After): 84.8%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 2117 (3rd & 3 at CMU 49) Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the CMich 49 - NIU 29, CMU 35 -1.93 84.8% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 51

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.09 - 1.84 = -1.93

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.84)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 29, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.8%

Win Probability (After): 82.5%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:42 ESPN team id 2117 (4th & 3 at CMU 49) Luke Elzinga punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 21 - NIU 29, CMU 35 -0.58 82.7% -3.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 79

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.68 - -0.10 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 6 (5.90)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.32)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NIU 29, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.7%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 13:42 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 21) Jay Ducker run for 16 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST down - NIU 29, CMU 35 1.15 20.5% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 63

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.86 - 0.71 = 1.15

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.29)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 29, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 1 play, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.5%

Win Probability (After): 23.3%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:42 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 37) Jay Ducker run for 12 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST down - NIU 29, CMU 35 0.74 23.3% 3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 51

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.60 - 1.86 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.14)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 29, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.3%

Win Probability (After): 26.9%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:42 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 49) Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the NoIll 48 - NIU 29, CMU 35 -0.98 26.9% -4.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 52

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.62 - 2.60 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.40)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 29, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 22.1%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:42 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 11 at NIU 48) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 50 yds to the CMich 2 for a 1ST down - NIU 29, CMU 35 4.66 22.1% 19.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 2

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.28 - 1.62 = 4.66

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.38)

Score Difference (End): -6 (0.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 29, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.1%

Win Probability (After): 41.3%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:42 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & Goal at CMU 2) Clint Ratkovich run for 1 yd to the CMich 1 - NIU 29, CMU 35 -0.07 41.3% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 1

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.21 - 6.28 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): -6 (0.28)

Score Difference (End): -6 (0.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 29, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.3%

Win Probability (After): 40.1%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:47 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & Goal at CMU 1) Clint Ratkovich 1 Yd Run (Kanon Woodill Kick) - NIU 36, CMU 35 0.83 40.8% 10.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.17 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): -6 (0.17)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 81 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.8%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 29 (36) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:45 ESPN team id 2117 (Kickoff at CMU 35) Kanon Woodill kickoff for 45 yds , Kumehnnu Gwilly return for 4 yds to the CMich 24 - NIU 36, CMU 35 -0.10 53.2% -1.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 76

Started Drive at: CMU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 1.11 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.11)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.2%

Win Probability (After): 52.2%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:45 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 24) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Marion Lukes for 16 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST down - NIU 36, CMU 35 1.21 52.1% 5.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 60

Started Drive at: CMU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.22 - 1.02 = 1.21

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.02)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 1 play, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.1%

Win Probability (After): 57.8%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:45 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 40) Lew Nichols III run for 7 yds to the CMich 47 - NIU 36, CMU 35 0.36 57.8% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 53

Started Drive at: CMU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 2.22 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.22)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.8%

Win Probability (After): 58.2%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:45 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 3 at CMU 47) Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST down - NIU 36, CMU 35 0.32 58.2% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 48

Started Drive at: CMU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.91 - 2.58 = 0.32

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.58)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.2%

Win Probability (After): 60.8%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:45 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at NIU 48) Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Dallas Dixon - NIU 36, CMU 35 -0.57 60.8% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48

Started Drive at: CMU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.34 - 2.91 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.91)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.8%

Win Probability (After): 58.3%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:45 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 10 at NIU 48) Daniel Richardson pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 9 yds to the NoIll 39 - NIU 36, CMU 35 0.82 58.3% 3.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 39

Started Drive at: CMU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.16 - 2.34 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.34)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.3%

Win Probability (After): 61.5%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:45 ESPN team id 2117 (3rd & 1 at NIU 39) Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST down - NIU 36, CMU 35 0.41 61.5% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 36

Started Drive at: CMU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.57 - 3.16 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): -1 (2.16)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.5%

Win Probability (After): 62.9%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:45 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at NIU 36) PENALTY CMU False Start (Goedeke,Luke) 5 yards from NIU36 to NIU41. NO PLAY. - NIU 36, CMU 35 -0.73 62.9% -2.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 41

Started Drive at: CMU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.84 - 3.57 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): -1 (2.57)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.9%

Win Probability (After): 60.7%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:45 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 15 at NIU 41) Lew Nichols III run for 22 yds to the NoIll 19 for a 1ST down - NIU 36, CMU 35 1.72 60.7% 7.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 19

Started Drive at: CMU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.56 - 2.84 = 1.72

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.84)

Score Difference (End): -1 (3.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.7%

Win Probability (After): 68.3%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:45 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at NIU 19) Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the NoIll 20 - NIU 36, CMU 35 -0.88 68.3% -4.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 20

Started Drive at: CMU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.68 - 4.56 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.56)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.3%

Win Probability (After): 63.9%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:45 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 11 at NIU 20) Myles Bailey run for no gain to the NoIll 20 - NIU 36, CMU 35 -0.68 63.9% -2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: CMU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.68 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -1 (2.68)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.9%

Win Probability (After): 61.2%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:45 ESPN team id 2117 (3rd & 11 at NIU 20) Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Kalil Pimpleton - NIU 36, CMU 35 -0.73 61.2% -4.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: CMU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 3.00 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): -1 (2.00)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 35

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.2%

Win Probability (After): 56.5%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:01 ESPN team id 2117 (4th & 11 at NIU 20) Marshall Meeder 38 Yd Field Goal - NIU 36, CMU 38 0.68 57.8% 9.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 65

Started Drive at: CMU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.32 = 0.68

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.32)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.8%

Win Probability (After): 67.7%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 35 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:56 ESPN team id 2459 (Kickoff at NIU 35) Josh Rolston kickoff for 57 yds , Trayvon Rudolph return for 22 yds to the NoIll 30 - NIU 36, CMU 38 0.38 36.8% 3.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 70

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.58 - 1.20 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.80)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.8%

Win Probability (After): 39.9%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:56 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 30) Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the NoIll 34 - NIU 36, CMU 38 -0.04 39.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 66

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - 1.58 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.42)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.0%

Win Probability (After): 38.9%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:56 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 6 at NIU 34) Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 36 - NIU 36, CMU 38 -0.37 38.9% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 64

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.16 - 1.53 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.47)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.9%

Win Probability (After): 36.6%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:56 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 4 at NIU 36) Rocky Lombardi run for 5 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST down - NIU 36, CMU 38 1.01 36.6% 9.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 59

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 1.16 = 1.01

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.84)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.6%

Win Probability (After): 46.6%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:56 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 41) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Mohamed Toure - NIU 36, CMU 38 -0.49 46.6% -5.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.68 - 2.17 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.17)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.6%

Win Probability (After): 41.0%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:56 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 10 at NIU 41) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 7 yds to the NoIll 48 - NIU 36, CMU 38 0.07 41.0% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 52

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.75 - 1.68 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.32)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.0%

Win Probability (After): 41.3%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:56 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 3 at NIU 48) Rocky Lombardi run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line - NIU 36, CMU 38 -0.84 41.3% -6.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 50

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - 1.75 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.25)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.3%

Win Probability (After): 35.3%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:31 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 3 at NIU 48) Timeout NORTHERNIL, clock 02:31 - NIU 36, CMU 38 0.00 33.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 50

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - 0.91 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.09)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.8%

Win Probability (After): 33.8%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:31 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 1 at 50) Trayvon Rudolph run for 7 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST down - NIU 36, CMU 38 1.81 32.2% 23.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 43

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.45 - 0.63 = 1.81

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.37)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.2%

Win Probability (After): 55.4%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:31 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CMU 43) Jay Ducker run for 26 yds to the CMich 17 for a 1ST down - NIU 36, CMU 38 1.84 55.4% 16.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 17

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 2.45 = 1.84

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.45)

Score Difference (End): -2 (2.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.4%

Win Probability (After): 71.9%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:50 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CMU 43) Timeout CENTRAL MICH, clock 01:50 - NIU 36, CMU 38 0.00 71.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 17

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 4.29 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -2 (2.29)

Score Difference (End): -2 (2.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.6%

Win Probability (After): 71.6%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:50 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CMU 17) Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the CMich 14 - NIU 36, CMU 38 -0.20 72.6% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 14

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.91 - 4.11 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): -2 (2.11)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.6%

Win Probability (After): 71.6%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:47 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CMU 17) Timeout CENTRAL MICH, clock 01:47 - NIU 36, CMU 38 0.00 72.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 14

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.91 - 3.91 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.91)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.0%

Win Probability (After): 72.0%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:47 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 7 at CMU 14) Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the CMich 11 - NIU 36, CMU 38 -0.21 71.8% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 11

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.70 - 3.91 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.91)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.8%

Win Probability (After): 70.2%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:44 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 7 at CMU 14) Timeout CENTRAL MICH, clock 01:44 - NIU 36, CMU 38 0.00 71.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 11

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.70 - 3.70 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.70)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.6%

Win Probability (After): 71.6%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:44 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 4 at CMU 11) Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the CMich 8 - NIU 36, CMU 38 -0.58 70.2% -6.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 8

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.13 - 3.70 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.70)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.2%

Win Probability (After): 63.8%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:57 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 4 at CMU 11) Timeout NORTHERNIL, clock 00:57 - NIU 36, CMU 38 0.00 65.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 8

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.13 - 3.13 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.13)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 36, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.2%

Win Probability (After): 65.2%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:54 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 1 at CMU 8) Kanon Woodill 26 Yd Field Goal - NIU 39, CMU 38 -0.08 66.7% 1.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 65

Started Drive at: NIU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.08 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 39, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.7%

Win Probability (After): 67.8%

Away Score: 36 (39) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:48 ESPN team id 2117 (Kickoff at CMU 35) Kanon Woodill kickoff for 56 yds , Marion Lukes return for 17 yds to the CMich 26 - NIU 39, CMU 38 0.08 35.2% 3.3%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 74

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.68 - 0.60 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.40)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 39, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.2%

Win Probability (After): 38.5%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:48 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 26) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 15 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST down - NIU 39, CMU 38 0.57 35.8% 17.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 59

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 0.64 = 0.57

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.36)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 39, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.8%

Win Probability (After): 53.7%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:48 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at CMU 41) Daniel Richardson pass incomplete - NIU 39, CMU 38 -0.15 53.7% -3.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.06 - 1.21 = -0.15

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.21)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 39, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.7%

Win Probability (After): 50.1%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:48 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 10 at CMU 41) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 12 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST down - NIU 39, CMU 38 0.63 50.1% 6.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 47

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.69 - 1.06 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.06)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 39, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.1%

Win Probability (After): 56.0%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:48 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 10 at NIU 47) Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Lew Nichols III - NIU 39, CMU 38 -0.29 55.8% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.24 - 1.52 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.52)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 39, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.8%

Win Probability (After): 54.3%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:48 ESPN team id 2117 (3rd & 10 at NIU 47) Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Joel Wilson - NIU 39, CMU 38 -0.85 54.3% -24.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.39 - 1.24 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.24)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 39, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.3%

Win Probability (After): 29.5%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:48 ESPN team id 2117 (4th & 10 at NIU 47) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 22 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST down - NIU 39, CMU 38 3.05 29.5% 54.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 25

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 0.39 = 3.05

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.61)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 39, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.5%

Win Probability (After): 83.9%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:48 ESPN team id 2117 (1st & 10 at NIU 25) Daniel Richardson pass incomplete - NIU 39, CMU 38 -0.24 83.9% -2.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.20 - 3.44 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): -1 (2.44)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 39, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.9%

Win Probability (After): 81.3%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:48 ESPN team id 2117 (2nd & 10 at NIU 25) Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Joel Wilson - NIU 39, CMU 38 -0.30 81.3% -4.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.89 - 3.20 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): -1 (2.20)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 39, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.3%

Win Probability (After): 76.3%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:48 ESPN team id 2117 (3rd & 10 at NIU 25) Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 3 yds to the NoIll 22 - NIU 39, CMU 38 -0.41 76.3% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 22

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 2.89 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.89)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 39, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.3%

Win Probability (After): 74.6%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:03 ESPN team id 2117 (4th & 7 at NIU 22) Luke Elzinga run for 20 yds to the NoIll 42 - NIU 39, CMU 38 -1.25 82.4% -47.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 58

Started Drive at: CMU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 2.46 = -1.25

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.46)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.21)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NIU 39, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.4%

Win Probability (After): 35.0%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:03 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 42) PENALTY NIU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Taylor,Demond) NIU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 28 yards from NIU42 to NIU14. NO PLAY. - NIU 39, CMU 38 -0.21 86.9% 1.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 86

Started Drive at: NIU 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.00 - 0.20 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.20)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 39, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.9%

Win Probability (After): 88.3%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 38 at NIU 14) run for no gain to the NoIll 14 - NIU 39, CMU 38 0.00 92.3% 7.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 86

Started Drive at: NIU 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - -0.02 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (0.98)

Score Difference (End): 1 (0.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 39, CMU 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.3%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3