Louisiana 28 @ Arkansas State 27

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 5.10 | Odds: UL -18, O/U 70.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 309 ESPN team id 2032
Total Plays 8277
Total EPA 18.149.93
  Offensive EPA 14.622.77
  Special Teams EPA 0.201.51
  Penalty EPA 4.327.88
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA -1.00-2.23
Production ESPN team id 309 ESPN team id 2032
Scrimmage Plays 7366
  Yards 581438
  Yards/Play 7.966.64
  EPA 14.622.77
  EPA/Play 0.200.04
Passes 21 (29%)33 (50%)
  Yards 122298
  Yards/Play 5.819.03
  EPA -7.0011.12
  EPA/Play -0.330.34
Rushes 52 (71%)33 (50%)
  Yards 430132
  Yards/Play 8.274.00
  EPA 21.63-8.35
  EPA/Play 0.42-0.25
Rushing ESPN team id 309 ESPN team id 2032
Scrimmage Plays 7366
Rushes 52 (71%)33 (50%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 4 (8%)2 (6%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 3 (75%)1 (50%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 10 (19%)5 (15%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 16 (31%)13 (39%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 32 (62%)16 (48%)
OL Line Yards 77.261.8
  Per Carry 1.481.87
Highlight Yards 232.524
  Per Rush Opportunity 7.271.50
Explosiveness ESPN team id 309 ESPN team id 2032
Total Plays 8277
Scrimmage Plays 7366
Explosive Plays 6 (8%)4 (6%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 1 (5%)4 (12%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 5 (10%)0 (0%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -9.66-12.59
  EPA/Play -0.14-0.20
  When Passing -10.33-4.24
    EPA/Play -0.49-0.13
  When Rushing 0.67-8.35
    EPA/Play 0.01-0.25
Situational ESPN team id 309 ESPN team id 2032
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 40 (55%)25 (38%)
  When Passing 10 (48%)13 (39%)
  When Rushing 30 (58%)12 (36%)
  On Standard Downs 33 (57%)18 (42%)
  On Passing Downs 7 (47%)7 (30%)
  On Early Downs 33 (55%)20 (37%)
  On Late Downs 7 (54%)5 (42%)
  During "Middle 8" 11 (79%)5 (36%)
Early Downs 6054
  First Downs Created 17 (28%)11 (20%)
  EPA 13.396.06
  EPA/Play 0.220.11
  Passes 20 (33%)24 (44%)
  Rushes 40 (67%)30 (56%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 10 (50%)9 (38%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 23 (58%)11 (37%)
"Middle 8" Plays 1414
  EPA 13.064.84
  EPA/play 0.930.35
  Passes 8 (57%)9 (64%)
  Rushes 6 (43%)5 (36%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 6 (75%)3 (33%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 5 (83%)2 (40%)
Drives ESPN team id 309 ESPN team id 2032
Total 1111
Avg Starting Field Position Own 22Own 18
Plays/Drive 11.057.91
Yards/Drive 58.8848.70
Available Yards % 75%59%
Defensive ESPN team id 309 ESPN team id 2032
Scrimmage Plays 6673
Stop Rate 47%40%
Havoc Plays Created 6 (9%)11 (15%)
  Passing 2 (6%)2 (10%)
  Rushing 4 (12%)9 (17%)
TFLs Generated 69
  Passing 21
  Rushing 48
Sacks Generated 2 (6%)1 (5%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 01
Fumbles Forced 02
Turnovers ESPN team id 309 ESPN team id 2032
Turnovers 21
  Fumbles 21
  Fumbles Lost 11
  Fumbles Recovered 10
  Interceptions 10
Turnover Margin -11
Expected Turnovers 1.71.5
Expected Turnover Margin -0.20.2
Turnover Luck (pts) -3.93.9
Special Teams ESPN team id 309 ESPN team id 2032
Total Plays 9 11
Total EPA 0.2 1.51
  Field Goal EPA 0 1.09
  Punting EPA 1.63 1.4
  Kickoff Return EPA -1.43 -0.98

Louisiana [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Levi Lewis 11/20, 122 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 1 Sck, 20.3 xQBR 5.81 -0.33 -7.00 48% -8.0%
Rush attempts
Montrell Johnson 17 carries, 150 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.82 0.73 12.48 53% 19.0%
Chris Smith 24 carries, 238 yds, 2 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 9.92 0.27 6.48 62% 34.0%
Emani Bailey 4 carries, 27 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.75 0.58 2.34 75% 1.0%
TEAM 2 carries, -2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.00 0.44 0.88 50% 0.0%
Levi Lewis 5 carries, 17 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 3.40 -0.11 -0.55 40% 3.0%
Pass targets
Peter LeBlanc 5 catches (5 targets), 34 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.80 0.55 2.75 100% 1.0%
Dontae Fleming 2 catches (4 targets), 47 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 23.50 0.60 2.40 50% 3.0%
Kyren Lacy 2 catches (3 targets), 27 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.50 0.67 2.01 67% 7.0%
Neal Johnson 1 catch (1 target), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 1.39 1.39 100% 0.0%
Michael Jefferson 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.34 -0.34 0% 1.0%
Kaleb Carter 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.48 -0.48 0% -2.0%
Chris Smith 1 catch (1 target), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.66 -0.66 0% -1.0%
John Stephens Jr. 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -4.32 -4.32 0% -4.0%

Arkansas State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Layne Hatcher 16/31, 298 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 2 Scks, 71.7 xQBR 9.03 0.34 11.12 39% 0.0%
Rush attempts
Layne Hatcher 8 carries, 21 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.62 -0.04 -0.32 50% 4.0%
Alan Lamar 4 carries, 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.34 -1.38 25% -9.0%
Johnnie Lang Jr. 10 carries, 47 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.70 -0.27 -2.75 30% -6.0%
Lincoln Pare 11 carries, 52 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 4.73 -0.35 -3.90 36% -4.0%
Pass targets
Te'Vailance Hunt 3 catches (3 targets), 83 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 27.67 2.22 6.65 67% 11.0%
Emmanuel Stevenson 2 catches (3 targets), 22 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.00 1.40 4.19 67% 13.0%
Corey Rucker 3 catches (7 targets), 53 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 17.67 0.46 3.25 43% -3.0%
Jeff Foreman 2 catches (5 targets), 64 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 32.00 0.53 2.63 40% 0.0%
Johnnie Lang Jr. 1 catch (1 target), 26 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 26.00 2.25 2.25 100% 2.0%
Reagan Ealy 1 catch (1 target), 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 20.00 2.00 2.00 100% 1.0%
Dahu Green 1 catch (2 targets), 19 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 19.00 0.02 0.03 50% 1.0%
Jack Combs 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.59 -1.59 0% -1.0%
Lincoln Pare 3 catches (4 targets), 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.67 -0.48 -1.93 25% -2.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 5:19 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 1) Montrell Johnson run for 99 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK) - UL 7, ARST 7 7.68 69.2% 11.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 99 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -0.68 = 7.68

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.68)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 99 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.6%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 14:07 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 6 at ARST 24) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 76 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) - UL 14, ARST 17 6.85 14.5% 13.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.15 = 6.85

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.85)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 14, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.5%

Win Probability (After): 28.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:39 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 5 at ARST 45) Levi Lewis pass intercepted Kenneth Harris return for 35 yds to the LaLaf 30 - UL 21, ARST 24 -6.83 70.7% -14.2%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 30

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.14 - 2.69 = -6.83

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.31)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.14)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.7%

Win Probability (After): 56.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:37 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 4 at UL 26) Chris Smith run for 74 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK) - UL 28, ARST 27 6.37 54.2% 20.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.63 = 6.37

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.37)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.2%

Win Probability (After): 74.5%

Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:02 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 47) Chris Smith run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 49 Chris Smith fumbled, forced by Taylon Doss, recovered by ArkSt Justin Parks - UL 21, ARST 17 -5.37 88.0% -6.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 51

Started Drive at: UL 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.42 - 2.95 = -5.37

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.95)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.58)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 21, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.0%

Win Probability (After): 81.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:27 ESPN team id 309 (4th & Goal at ARST 1) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to John Stephens Jr. - UL 0, ARST 0 -4.32 89.6% -4.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 4.98 = -4.32

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.66)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.6%

Win Probability (After): 85.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:05 ESPN team id 2032 (4th & 1 at UL 49) Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line - UL 0, ARST 0 -4.00 13.5% -4.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 50

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.86 - 1.14 = -4.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.86)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.5%

Win Probability (After): 9.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 13:24 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 6 at UL 29) Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 39 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST down - UL 14, ARST 17 3.32 76.2% 6.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 32

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 0.59 = 3.32

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.41)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 14, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.2%

Win Probability (After): 82.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:50 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 7 at ARST 4) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 36 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST down - UL 0, ARST 0 3.21 12.2% 2.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 60

Started Drive at: ARST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.20 - -1.01 = 3.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.2%

Win Probability (After): 15.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:05 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 10 at UL 15) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 15 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) - UL 21, ARST 24 2.70 25.4% 5.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARST 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.30 = 2.70

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.30)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.4%

Win Probability (After): 30.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q3 2:37 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 4 at UL 26) Chris Smith run for 74 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK) - UL 28, ARST 27 6.37 54.2% 20.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.63 = 6.37

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.37)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.2%

Win Probability (After): 74.5%

Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:39 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 5 at ARST 45) Levi Lewis pass intercepted Kenneth Harris return for 35 yds to the LaLaf 30 - UL 21, ARST 24 -6.83 70.7% -14.2%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 30

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.14 - 2.69 = -6.83

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.31)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.14)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.7%

Win Probability (After): 56.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:07 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 6 at ARST 24) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 76 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) - UL 14, ARST 17 6.85 14.5% 13.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.15 = 6.85

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.85)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 14, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.5%

Win Probability (After): 28.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:19 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 1) Montrell Johnson run for 99 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK) - UL 7, ARST 7 7.68 69.2% 11.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 99 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -0.68 = 7.68

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.68)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 99 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.6%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:18 ESPN team id 2032 (3rd & 9 at ARST 18) Hatcher, Layne pass sacked for loss of 9 yards to the ARST9 (Moncrief, Kris), PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE illegal use of hands (Jones, Andre) 15 yards to the ARST33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARST. - UL 28, ARST 27 2.47 20.8% 10.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 67

Started Drive at: ARST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.78 - -0.69 = 2.47

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-1.69)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.8%

Win Probability (After): 31.6%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:23 ESPN team id 2032 (4th & 9 at UL 18) Blake Grupe 35 yd FG GOOD - UL 21, ARST 27 0.69 43.9% 10.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.31 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.31)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.9%

Win Probability (After): 54.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:50 ESPN team id 2032 (3rd & 12 at ARST 44) Layne Hatcher sacked by Chauncey Manac for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 37 - UL 28, ARST 27 -1.53 29.3% -9.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 63

Started Drive at: ARST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.84 - 0.69 = -1.53

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.31)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.3%

Win Probability (After): 19.6%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:47 ESPN team id 2032 (3rd & 6 at ARST 19) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 7 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST down - UL 28, ARST 27 1.99 23.3% 8.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 74

Started Drive at: ARST 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.22 - -0.77 = 1.99

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-1.77)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.3%

Win Probability (After): 31.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:35 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 10 at ARST 46) Alan Lamar run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 44 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Andre Harris Jr.) declined - UL 28, ARST 27 -1.31 33.1% -7.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 56

Started Drive at: ARST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.67 - 1.98 = -1.31

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.98)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.1%

Win Probability (After): 25.6%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:02 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 47) Chris Smith run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 49 Chris Smith fumbled, forced by Taylon Doss, recovered by ArkSt Justin Parks - UL 21, ARST 17 -5.37 88.0% -6.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 51

Started Drive at: UL 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.42 - 2.95 = -5.37

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.95)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.58)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 21, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.0%

Win Probability (After): 81.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 5:38 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & Goal at UL 6) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 6 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) - UL 0, ARST 7 2.14 22.6% 3.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARST 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.86 = 2.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.86)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 7

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 94 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.6%

Win Probability (After): 26.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:19 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 1) Montrell Johnson run for 99 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK) - UL 7, ARST 7 7.68 69.2% 11.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 99 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -0.68 = 7.68

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.68)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 99 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.6%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:21 ESPN team id 2032 (4th & 9 at UL 15) Blake Grupe 32 yd FG GOOD - UL 7, ARST 10 0.40 24.4% 6.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: ARST 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.60 = 0.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.60)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.4%

Win Probability (After): 30.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:28 ESPN team id 309 (1st & Goal at ARST 6) Chris Smith run for 6 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK) - UL 14, ARST 10 1.71 85.7% 1.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.29 = 1.71

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.29)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 14, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.7%

Win Probability (After): 87.6%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 14:07 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 6 at ARST 24) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 76 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) - UL 14, ARST 17 6.85 14.5% 13.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.15 = 6.85

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.85)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 14, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.5%

Win Probability (After): 28.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:35 ESPN team id 309 (1st & Goal at ARST 3) Montrell Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK) - UL 21, ARST 17 0.90 84.4% 2.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.10 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): -3 (3.10)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.4%

Win Probability (After): 87.1%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:05 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 10 at UL 15) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 15 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) - UL 21, ARST 24 2.70 25.4% 5.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARST 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.30 = 2.70

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.30)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.4%

Win Probability (After): 30.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:23 ESPN team id 2032 (4th & 9 at UL 18) Blake Grupe 35 yd FG GOOD - UL 21, ARST 27 0.69 43.9% 10.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.31 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.31)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.9%

Win Probability (After): 54.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 2:37 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 4 at UL 26) Chris Smith run for 74 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK) - UL 28, ARST 27 6.37 54.2% 20.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.63 = 6.37

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.37)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.2%

Win Probability (After): 74.5%

Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 309 (Kickoff at UL 35) Tristan Mattson kickoff for 64 yds , Chris Smith return for 19 yds to the LaLaf 20 - UL 0, ARST 0 -0.32 89.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.54 - 0.86 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.0%

Win Probability (After): 88.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:55 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 20) Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 9 yds to the LaLaf 29 - UL 0, ARST 0 0.99 91.2% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 71

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.63 - 0.64 = 0.99

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.2%

Win Probability (After): 91.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:13 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 1 at UL 29) Chris Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 28 - UL 0, ARST 0 -1.50 91.7% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 72

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.27 - 1.77 = -1.50

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.7%

Win Probability (After): 90.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:43 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 2 at UL 28) Chris Smith run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 29 - UL 0, ARST 0 -1.55 90.9% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 71

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.24 - 0.31 = -1.55

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.31)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.9%

Win Probability (After): 89.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:04 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 1 at UL 29) Rhys Byrns punt for 51 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for no gain to the ArkSt 20 - UL 0, ARST 0 0.19 86.7% 2.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 80

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.76 - -0.95 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.76)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.7%

Win Probability (After): 89.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 13:00 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 20) Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 23 - UL 0, ARST 0 -0.51 10.8% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 77

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.29 - 0.81 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.81)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.8%

Win Probability (After): 10.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:18 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 7 at ARST 23) Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 27 - UL 0, ARST 0 -0.17 12.1% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 73

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 0.30 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.30)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.1%

Win Probability (After): 10.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:05 ESPN team id 2032 (3rd & 3 at ARST 27) Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE roughing passer (McCaskill, Lorenzo) 15 yards to the ARST42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARST. - UL 0, ARST 0 2.17 11.7% 2.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 58

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 0.12 = 2.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.12)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.7%

Win Probability (After): 14.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:30 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 42) Layne Hatcher run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 40 - UL 0, ARST 0 -1.20 12.2% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 60

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 2.32 = -1.20

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.32)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.2%

Win Probability (After): 12.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:06 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 12 at ARST 40) Layne Hatcher pass incomplete - UL 0, ARST 0 -0.92 12.2% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 1.05 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.2%

Win Probability (After): 10.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:49 ESPN team id 2032 (3rd & 12 at ARST 40) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 11 yds to the LaLaf 49 - UL 0, ARST 0 0.78 12.2% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 49

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.96 - 0.18 = 0.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.2%

Win Probability (After): 12.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:10 ESPN team id 2032 (4th & 1 at UL 49) Timeout ARKANSAS ST, clock 10:10 - UL 0, ARST 0 0.00 13.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.96 - 0.96 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.96)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.2%

Win Probability (After): 13.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:05 ESPN team id 2032 (4th & 1 at UL 49) Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line - UL 0, ARST 0 -4.00 13.5% -4.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 50

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.86 - 1.14 = -4.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.86)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.5%

Win Probability (After): 9.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 9:58 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at 50) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Dontae Fleming - UL 0, ARST 0 -0.67 90.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.21 - 2.88 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.88)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.8%

Win Probability (After): 90.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 9:34 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 10 at 50) Emani Bailey run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST down - UL 0, ARST 0 1.43 91.1% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 39

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.66 - 2.23 = 1.43

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.23)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.1%

Win Probability (After): 91.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 9:19 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at ARST 39) Emani Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 40 - UL 0, ARST 0 -1.06 91.2% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 40

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 3.64 = -1.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.2%

Win Probability (After): 91.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 8:40 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 11 at ARST 40) Emani Bailey run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST down - UL 0, ARST 0 1.67 91.7% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 29

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.19 - 2.52 = 1.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.52)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.7%

Win Probability (After): 91.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 8:04 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at ARST 29) Emani Bailey run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 23 - UL 0, ARST 0 0.30 92.2% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 23

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.46 - 4.16 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.2%

Win Probability (After): 93.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 7:36 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 4 at ARST 23) Levi Lewis pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 6 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST down - UL 0, ARST 0 0.56 91.0% 2.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 17

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.99 - 4.43 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.43)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.0%

Win Probability (After): 93.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 7:10 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at ARST 17) Montrell Johnson run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 12 - UL 0, ARST 0 -0.07 91.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 12

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.93 - 5.01 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.7%

Win Probability (After): 91.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 6:31 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 5 at ARST 12) Levi Lewis pass complete to Neal Johnson for 10 yds to the ArkSt 2 for a 1ST down - UL 0, ARST 0 1.39 92.0% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 2

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.34 - 4.95 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (6.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.0%

Win Probability (After): 92.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 6:02 ESPN team id 309 (1st & Goal at ARST 2) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Michael Jefferson - UL 0, ARST 0 -0.34 91.4% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 2

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 6.34 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.4%

Win Probability (After): 92.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:55 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & Goal at ARST 2) Montrell Johnson run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 1 - UL 0, ARST 0 -0.09 91.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 1

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.92 - 6.00 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.00)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.2%

Win Probability (After): 91.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:05 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & Goal at ARST 1) Montrell Johnson run for no gain to the ArkSt 1 - UL 0, ARST 0 -0.98 90.7% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 1

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.94 - 5.92 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.92)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.7%

Win Probability (After): 90.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 4:27 ESPN team id 309 (4th & Goal at ARST 1) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to John Stephens Jr. - UL 0, ARST 0 -4.32 89.6% -4.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 4.98 = -4.32

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.66)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.6%

Win Probability (After): 85.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:18 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 1) Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 4 - UL 0, ARST 0 -0.36 11.7% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 99 -> 96

Started Drive at: ARST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.01 - -0.65 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.65)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.7%

Win Probability (After): 11.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:50 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 7 at ARST 4) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 36 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST down - UL 0, ARST 0 3.21 12.2% 2.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 60

Started Drive at: ARST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.20 - -1.01 = 3.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.2%

Win Probability (After): 15.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:14 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 40) Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 41 - UL 0, ARST 0 -0.59 16.3% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 59

Started Drive at: ARST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.61 - 2.20 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.20)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.3%

Win Probability (After): 15.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:47 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 9 at ARST 41) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Reagan Ealy for 20 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST down - UL 0, ARST 0 2.00 16.2% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 39

Started Drive at: ARST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 1.61 = 2.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.61)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.2%

Win Probability (After): 17.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:32 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at UL 39) Pare, Lincoln rush for 14 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE25, PENALTY ARST holding (Still, Jacob) 10 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE49, NO PLAY. - UL 0, ARST 0 -1.10 18.6% -1.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 49

Started Drive at: ARST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.51 - 3.61 = -1.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.61)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.6%

Win Probability (After): 17.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:22 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 20 at UL 49) Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Lincoln Pare - UL 0, ARST 0 -0.81 17.6% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: ARST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.70 - 2.51 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.51)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.6%

Win Probability (After): 16.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:09 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 20 at UL 49) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 6 yds to the LaLaf 43 - UL 0, ARST 0 -0.62 16.5% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 43

Started Drive at: ARST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 1.65 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.65)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.5%

Win Probability (After): 15.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:38 ESPN team id 2032 (3rd & 14 at UL 43) Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jack Combs - UL 0, ARST 0 -1.59 14.4% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 43

Started Drive at: ARST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.53 - 1.06 = -1.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.4%

Win Probability (After): 13.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:30 ESPN team id 2032 (4th & 14 at UL 43) Ryan Hanson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 10 - UL 0, ARST 0 0.21 12.8% 3.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 90

Started Drive at: ARST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.18 - -0.40 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.40)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.18)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.8%

Win Probability (After): 15.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 1:15 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 10) Chris Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 6 - UL 0, ARST 0 -1.39 84.1% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 94

Started Drive at: UL 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.17 - 0.22 = -1.39

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.22)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.1%

Win Probability (After): 82.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 0:41 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 14 at UL 6) Chris Smith run for 14 yds to the LaLaf 20 for a 1ST down - UL 0, ARST 0 2.05 81.1% 3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 80

Started Drive at: UL 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.87 - -1.18 = 2.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.1%

Win Probability (After): 84.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 20) Chris Smith run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST down - UL 0, ARST 0 0.86 83.4% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 70

Started Drive at: UL 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.73 - 0.87 = 0.86

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.87)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.4%

Win Probability (After): 84.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:53 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 30) Levi Lewis pass incomplete - UL 0, ARST 0 -0.83 86.5% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: UL 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - 1.72 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.5%

Win Probability (After): 85.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:30 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 10 at UL 30) Levi Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 29 Levi Lewis fumbled, forced by Kivon Bennett, recovered by LaLaf Max Mitchell - UL 0, ARST 0 -1.45 84.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 71

Started Drive at: UL 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.54 - 0.91 = -1.45

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.91)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.4%

Win Probability (After): 84.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:10 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 11 at UL 29) Fields, Chandler pass incomplete, PENALTY ARST offside (Bennett, Kivon) 5 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE34, NO PLAY. - UL 0, ARST 0 1.21 83.3% 0.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 66

Started Drive at: UL 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - -0.57 = 1.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.3%

Win Probability (After): 84.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:00 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 6 at UL 34) Levi Lewis run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST down - UL 0, ARST 0 1.75 84.2% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 57

Started Drive at: UL 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 0.64 = 1.75

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.2%

Win Probability (After): 86.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:07 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 43) Levi Lewis sacked by Joe Ozougwu for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 37 - UL 0, ARST 0 -1.51 86.9% -2.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 63

Started Drive at: UL 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.92 - 2.43 = -1.51

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.43)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.9%

Win Probability (After): 84.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:44 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 16 at UL 37) Levi Lewis pass complete to Chris Smith for 4 yds to the LaLaf 41 - UL 0, ARST 0 -0.66 85.6% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 59

Started Drive at: UL 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.34 - 1.00 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.00)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.6%

Win Probability (After): 84.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:56 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 12 at UL 41) Chris Smith run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 44 - UL 0, ARST 0 -1.15 84.7% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 56

Started Drive at: UL 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.66 - 0.49 = -1.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.7%

Win Probability (After): 83.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:22 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 9 at UL 44) Rhys Byrns punt for 48 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 6 - UL 0, ARST 0 0.45 83.3% 1.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 94

Started Drive at: UL 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - -0.49 = 0.45

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.04)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.3%

Win Probability (After): 85.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:16 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 6) Alan Lamar run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 9 - UL 0, ARST 0 -0.50 16.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 91

Started Drive at: ARST 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.54 - -0.04 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.04)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.0%

Win Probability (After): 15.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:48 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 7 at ARST 9) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 6 yds to the ArkSt 15 - UL 0, ARST 0 0.64 16.1% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 85

Started Drive at: ARST 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.07 - -0.57 = 0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.1%

Win Probability (After): 15.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:40 ESPN team id 2032 (3rd & 1 at ARST 15) Layne Hatcher run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Mekhi Garner) to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST down - UL 0, ARST 0 1.45 16.5% 2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 73

Started Drive at: ARST 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.52 - 0.03 = 1.45

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.5%

Win Probability (After): 18.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:51 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 27) Alan Lamar run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 35 - UL 0, ARST 0 0.64 21.6% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 65

Started Drive at: ARST 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.20 - 1.57 = 0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.6%

Win Probability (After): 19.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:23 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 2 at ARST 35) Layne Hatcher run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST down - UL 0, ARST 0 0.06 18.4% 4.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 63

Started Drive at: ARST 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 2.05 = 0.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.4%

Win Probability (After): 22.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:46 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 37) Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST down - UL 0, ARST 0 0.66 19.0% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 53

Started Drive at: ARST 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.61 - 1.96 = 0.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.96)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.0%

Win Probability (After): 19.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:22 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 47) Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Emmanuel Stevenson - UL 0, ARST 0 -0.49 19.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: ARST 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.92 - 2.41 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.41)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.6%

Win Probability (After): 19.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:12 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 10 at ARST 47) Layne Hatcher run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST down - UL 0, ARST 0 1.36 19.2% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 40

Started Drive at: ARST 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.38 - 2.01 = 1.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.2%

Win Probability (After): 20.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:52 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at UL 40) Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 39 - UL 0, ARST 0 -0.50 20.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 39

Started Drive at: ARST 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.98 - 3.48 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.48)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.6%

Win Probability (After): 20.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:17 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 9 at UL 39) Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 35 - UL 0, ARST 0 -0.42 20.5% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 35

Started Drive at: ARST 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.73 - 3.15 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.15)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.5%

Win Probability (After): 19.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:33 ESPN team id 2032 (3rd & 5 at UL 35) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Johnnie Lang Jr. for 26 yds to the LaLaf 9 for a 1ST down - UL 0, ARST 0 2.25 20.2% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 9

Started Drive at: ARST 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.19 - 2.93 = 2.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.93)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.2%

Win Probability (After): 22.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:05 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & Goal at UL 9) Alan Lamar run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 6 - UL 0, ARST 0 -0.21 22.1% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 6

Started Drive at: ARST 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.91 - 5.12 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.12)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 88 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.1%

Win Probability (After): 23.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:38 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & Goal at UL 6) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Corey Rucker for 6 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) - UL 0, ARST 7 2.14 22.6% 3.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARST 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.86 = 2.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.86)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 7

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 94 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.6%

Win Probability (After): 26.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:38 ESPN team id 309 (Kickoff at UL 35) Tristan Mattson kickoff for 62 yds , Chris Smith return for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 1 Chris Smith fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Chris Smith - UL 0, ARST 7 -1.29 68.4% -1.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.82 - 0.47 = -1.29

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.53)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, ARST 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.4%

Win Probability (After): 67.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:19 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 1) Montrell Johnson run for 99 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK) - UL 7, ARST 7 7.68 69.2% 11.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 99 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -0.68 = 7.68

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.68)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 99 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.6%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:19 ESPN team id 2032 (Kickoff at ARST 35) Nate Snyder kickoff for 61 yds , Alan Lamar return for 15 yds to the ArkSt 19 - UL 7, ARST 7 -0.26 21.6% -1.5%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 81

Started Drive at: ARST 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 1.27 = -0.26

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.27)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.6%

Win Probability (After): 20.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:00 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 19) Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 24 - UL 7, ARST 7 -0.08 20.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 76

Started Drive at: ARST 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.97 - 1.06 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.1%

Win Probability (After): 20.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:36 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 5 at ARST 24) Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey Rucker - UL 7, ARST 7 -0.88 20.1% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76

Started Drive at: ARST 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.09 - 0.98 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.1%

Win Probability (After): 18.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:30 ESPN team id 2032 (3rd & 5 at ARST 24) Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Rucker, Corey, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE pass interference (Washington, AJ) 7 yards to the ARST31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARST. - UL 7, ARST 7 1.59 18.2% 4.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 69

Started Drive at: ARST 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - 0.04 = 1.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.04)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.2%

Win Probability (After): 22.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:22 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 31) Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 36 - UL 7, ARST 7 0.08 24.0% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 64

Started Drive at: ARST 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 1.74 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.74)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.0%

Win Probability (After): 23.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:57 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 5 at ARST 36) Johnnie Lang Jr. run for no gain to the ArkSt 36 - UL 7, ARST 7 -0.60 23.9% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: ARST 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 1.74 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.74)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.9%

Win Probability (After): 22.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:20 ESPN team id 2032 (3rd & 5 at ARST 36) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 28 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST down - UL 7, ARST 7 2.61 20.4% 6.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 36

Started Drive at: ARST 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.62 - 1.01 = 2.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.4%

Win Probability (After): 26.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:01 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at UL 36) Layne Hatcher run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Lorenzo McCaskill) to the LaLaf 16 for a 1ST down - UL 7, ARST 7 1.06 27.2% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 16

Started Drive at: ARST 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.69 - 3.58 = 1.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.2%

Win Probability (After): 29.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:40 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at UL 16) Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey Rucker - UL 7, ARST 7 -0.42 30.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: ARST 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.21 - 4.63 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.3%

Win Probability (After): 29.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:35 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 10 at UL 16) Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jeff Foreman - UL 7, ARST 7 -0.66 29.4% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: ARST 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.49 - 4.15 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.15)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.4%

Win Probability (After): 26.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:25 ESPN team id 2032 (3rd & 10 at UL 16) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 1 yd to the LaLaf 15 - UL 7, ARST 7 -0.85 26.3% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 15

Started Drive at: ARST 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 3.48 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.48)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.3%

Win Probability (After): 24.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:25 ESPN team id 2032 (4th & 9 at UL 15) Timeout LOUISIANA, clock 02:25 - UL 7, ARST 7 0.00 24.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: ARST 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 2.63 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.4%

Win Probability (After): 24.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:21 ESPN team id 2032 (4th & 9 at UL 15) Blake Grupe 32 yd FG GOOD - UL 7, ARST 10 0.40 24.4% 6.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: ARST 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.60 = 0.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.60)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.4%

Win Probability (After): 30.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:21 ESPN team id 309 (Kickoff at UL 35) Tristan Mattson kickoff for 59 yds , Chris Smith return for 14 yds to the LaLaf 20 - UL 7, ARST 10 -0.17 77.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 1.12 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.88)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.1%

Win Probability (After): 76.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:07 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 20) Chris Smith run for 36 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST down - UL 7, ARST 10 1.38 77.4% 2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 44

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.30 - 0.92 = 1.38

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.08)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.4%

Win Probability (After): 80.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:34 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at ARST 44) Chris Smith run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 37 - UL 7, ARST 10 0.86 79.4% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 37

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.80 - 1.95 = 0.86

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.05)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.4%

Win Probability (After): 81.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:22 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 3 at ARST 37) Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 7 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST down - UL 7, ARST 10 0.40 81.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 30

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.01 - 2.61 = 0.40

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.39)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.0%

Win Probability (After): 80.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:13 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at ARST 30) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren Lacy - UL 7, ARST 10 -0.33 81.3% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.66 - 2.99 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.01)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.3%

Win Probability (After): 80.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:10 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 10 at ARST 30) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kaleb Carter - UL 7, ARST 10 -0.48 80.9% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.21 - 2.69 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.31)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:04 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 10 at ARST 30) Chris Smith run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 16 for a 1ST down - UL 7, ARST 10 2.19 79.0% 6.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 16

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.36 - 2.17 = 2.19

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.83)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.0%

Win Probability (After): 85.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:53 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at ARST 16) Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 5 yds to the ArkSt 11 - UL 7, ARST 10 0.12 84.6% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 11

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 4.37 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.37)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.6%

Win Probability (After): 85.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:33 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 5 at ARST 11) Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 5 yds to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST down - UL 7, ARST 10 0.83 85.0% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 6

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.35 - 4.52 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.52)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.0%

Win Probability (After): 85.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:28 ESPN team id 309 (1st & Goal at ARST 6) Chris Smith run for 6 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK) - UL 14, ARST 10 1.71 85.7% 1.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.29 = 1.71

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.29)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 14, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.7%

Win Probability (After): 87.6%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:28 ESPN team id 2032 (Kickoff at ARST 35) Nate Snyder kickoff for 62 yds , Alan Lamar return for 17 yds to the ArkSt 20 - UL 14, ARST 10 -0.06 13.9% -0.2%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.23 - 0.29 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.71)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 14, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.9%

Win Probability (After): 13.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:15 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 20) Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST down - UL 14, ARST 10 0.36 13.3% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 65

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - 0.09 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.91)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 14, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.3%

Win Probability (After): 14.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:14 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 35) Timeout ARKANSAS ST, clock 00:14 - UL 14, ARST 10 0.00 14.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - 0.45 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.55)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 14, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.0%

Win Probability (After): 14.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:08 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 35) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dahu Green for 19 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST down - UL 14, ARST 10 0.62 13.6% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 46

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.76 - 0.13 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.87)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 14, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.6%

Win Probability (After): 15.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:02 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at UL 46) Timeout ARKANSAS ST, clock 00:02 - UL 14, ARST 10 0.00 15.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.76 - 0.76 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.24)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 14, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.7%

Win Probability (After): 15.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at UL 46) Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey Rucker - UL 14, ARST 10 -0.46 16.6% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 0.46 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.54)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 14, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.6%

Win Probability (After): 13.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2032 (Kickoff at ARST 35) Nate Snyder kickoff for 61 yds , Alan Lamar return for 16 yds to the ArkSt 20 - UL 14, ARST 10 -0.29 13.7% -0.7%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 0.35 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.65)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 14, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.7%

Win Probability (After): 13.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:55 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 20) Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 24 - UL 14, ARST 10 -0.27 14.1% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 76

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.12 - 0.15 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.85)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 14, ARST 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.1%

Win Probability (After): 13.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:07 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 6 at ARST 24) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Te'Vailance Hunt for 76 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) - UL 14, ARST 17 6.85 14.5% 13.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.15 = 6.85

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.85)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 14, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.5%

Win Probability (After): 28.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:07 ESPN team id 309 (Kickoff at UL 35) Tristan Mattson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UL 14, ARST 17 0.00 77.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 0.66 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.34)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 14, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.2%

Win Probability (After): 77.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:52 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 25) Montrell Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29 - UL 14, ARST 17 -0.07 77.2% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.62 - 0.69 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.31)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 14, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.2%

Win Probability (After): 76.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:24 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 6 at UL 29) Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 39 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST down - UL 14, ARST 17 3.32 76.2% 6.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 32

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 0.59 = 3.32

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.41)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 14, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.2%

Win Probability (After): 82.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:10 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at ARST 32) Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 8 yds to the ArkSt 24 - UL 14, ARST 17 0.44 82.6% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 24

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 3.85 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.85)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 14, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.6%

Win Probability (After): 83.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:50 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 2 at ARST 24) Levi Lewis pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 21 yds to the ArkSt 3 for a 1ST down - UL 14, ARST 17 1.78 81.4% 5.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 3

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.06 - 4.28 = 1.78

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.28)

Score Difference (End): -3 (3.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 14, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.4%

Win Probability (After): 86.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:35 ESPN team id 309 (1st & Goal at ARST 3) Montrell Johnson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK) - UL 21, ARST 17 0.90 84.4% 2.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.10 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): -3 (3.10)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.4%

Win Probability (After): 87.1%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:35 ESPN team id 2032 (Kickoff at ARST 35) Nate Snyder kickoff for 56 yds for a touchback - UL 21, ARST 17 0.00 15.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ARST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 0.63 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.37)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.0%

Win Probability (After): 15.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:27 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 25) Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Dahu Green - UL 21, ARST 17 -0.59 15.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: ARST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 0.61 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.39)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.0%

Win Probability (After): 14.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:16 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 10 at ARST 25) Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26 - UL 21, ARST 17 -0.95 14.5% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: ARST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.94 - 0.01 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.99)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.5%

Win Probability (After): 13.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:41 ESPN team id 2032 (3rd & 9 at ARST 26) Layne Hatcher sacked by Ferrod Gardner for a loss of 10 yards to the ArkSt 16 - UL 21, ARST 17 -1.87 14.1% -3.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 84

Started Drive at: ARST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.79 - -0.92 = -1.87

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.92)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-6.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.1%

Win Probability (After): 10.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:56 ESPN team id 2032 (4th & 19 at ARST 16) Ryan Hanson punt for 54 yds , Eric Garror returns for 6 yds to the LaLaf 36 Eric Garror fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Eric Garror - UL 21, ARST 17 0.51 9.8% 0.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 64

Started Drive at: ARST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.28 - -2.79 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-6.79)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.28)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 21, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.8%

Win Probability (After): 10.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:49 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 36) Chris Smith run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST down - UL 21, ARST 17 0.54 89.0% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 53

Started Drive at: UL 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 2.37 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.37)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.0%

Win Probability (After): 89.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:02 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 47) Chris Smith run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 49 Chris Smith fumbled, forced by Taylon Doss, recovered by ArkSt Justin Parks - UL 21, ARST 17 -5.37 88.0% -6.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 51

Started Drive at: UL 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.42 - 2.95 = -5.37

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.95)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.58)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 21, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.0%

Win Probability (After): 81.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:50 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 49) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jeff Foreman for 36 yds to the LaLaf 15 for a 1ST down - UL 21, ARST 17 2.32 21.7% 5.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 15

Started Drive at: ARST 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.85 - 2.52 = 2.32

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.48)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.7%

Win Probability (After): 27.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:18 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at UL 15) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for no gain to the LaLaf 15 - UL 21, ARST 17 -0.56 27.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: ARST 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 4.90 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.90)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.4%

Win Probability (After): 27.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:05 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 10 at UL 15) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 15 yds for a TD, (Blake Grupe KICK) - UL 21, ARST 24 2.70 25.4% 5.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARST 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.30 = 2.70

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.30)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.4%

Win Probability (After): 30.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:05 ESPN team id 309 (Kickoff at UL 35) Tristan Mattson kickoff for 63 yds , Chris Smith return for 28 yds to the LaLaf 30 - UL 21, ARST 24 0.60 71.9% 1.2%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 70

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.38 - 0.78 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.22)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.9%

Win Probability (After): 73.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:51 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 30) Chris Smith run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 32 - UL 21, ARST 24 -0.60 72.7% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 68

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.74 - 1.34 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.66)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.7%

Win Probability (After): 71.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:15 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 8 at UL 32) Lewis, Levi pass incomplete to Fleming, Dontae, PENALTY ARST offside (Ozougwu, Joe) 5 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE37, NO PLAY. - UL 21, ARST 24 1.07 71.2% 2.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 63

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.74 - 0.67 = 1.07

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.33)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.2%

Win Probability (After): 74.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:08 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 3 at UL 37) Chris Smith run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST down - UL 21, ARST 24 0.22 73.8% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 60

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.94 - 1.71 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.29)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.8%

Win Probability (After): 74.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:28 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 40) Levi Lewis pass incomplete - UL 21, ARST 24 -0.58 69.1% 3.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.29 - 1.87 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.13)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.1%

Win Probability (After): 73.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:28 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 10 at UL 40) ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (John Mincey) to the LaLaf 45 - UL 21, ARST 24 0.75 67.8% 2.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 55

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 1.24 = 0.75

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.76)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.8%

Win Probability (After): 69.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:16 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 5 at UL 45) Montrell Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 49 - UL 21, ARST 24 -0.13 71.9% -2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 51

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.94 - 2.07 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.93)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.9%

Win Probability (After): 69.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:47 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 1 at UL 49) Montrell Johnson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - UL 21, ARST 24 0.57 71.2% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 50

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 2.02 = 0.57

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.98)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.2%

Win Probability (After): 72.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:21 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at 50) Montrell Johnson run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 45 - UL 21, ARST 24 0.14 70.6% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 45

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.71 - 2.57 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.43)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.6%

Win Probability (After): 72.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:39 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 5 at ARST 45) Levi Lewis pass intercepted Kenneth Harris return for 35 yds to the LaLaf 30 - UL 21, ARST 24 -6.83 70.7% -14.2%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 30

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.14 - 2.69 = -6.83

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.31)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.14)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.7%

Win Probability (After): 56.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:30 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at UL 30) Layne Hatcher pass incomplete - UL 21, ARST 24 -0.58 44.4% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.58 - 4.16 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.16)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.4%

Win Probability (After): 43.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:12 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 10 at UL 30) Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 29 - UL 21, ARST 24 -0.77 42.7% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 29

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 3.58 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.58)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.7%

Win Probability (After): 41.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:59 ESPN team id 2032 (3rd & 9 at UL 29) Hatcher, Layne pass incomplete to Foreman, Jeff, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE holding (Moncrief, Kris) 10 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARST. - UL 21, ARST 24 1.98 41.1% 4.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 19

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.79 - 2.81 = 1.98

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.81)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.1%

Win Probability (After): 45.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:42 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at UL 19) Hatcher, Layne pass complete to Foreman, Jeff for 10 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE9, PENALTY ARST pass interference (Traore, Seydou) 15 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE34, NO PLAY. - UL 21, ARST 24 -1.47 46.0% -3.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 34

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.31 - 4.77 = -1.47

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.77)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.0%

Win Probability (After): 42.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:33 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 25 at UL 34) Lincoln Pare run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 23 - UL 21, ARST 24 0.13 42.9% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 23

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 3.33 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.33)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.9%

Win Probability (After): 43.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:08 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 14 at UL 23) Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 18 - UL 21, ARST 24 -0.01 44.8% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 18

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.49 - 3.50 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.50)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.8%

Win Probability (After): 43.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:26 ESPN team id 2032 (3rd & 9 at UL 18) Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Corey Rucker - UL 21, ARST 24 -1.12 46.7% -3.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 3.47 = -1.12

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.47)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.7%

Win Probability (After): 42.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:23 ESPN team id 2032 (4th & 9 at UL 18) Blake Grupe 35 yd FG GOOD - UL 21, ARST 27 0.69 43.9% 10.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.31 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.31)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.9%

Win Probability (After): 54.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:23 ESPN team id 309 (Kickoff at UL 35) Tristan Mattson kickoff for 63 yds , Chris Smith return for 18 yds to the LaLaf 20 - UL 21, ARST 27 -0.24 53.2% -1.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 0.69 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.31)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.2%

Win Probability (After): 52.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:08 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 20) Chris Smith run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 26 - UL 21, ARST 27 0.15 51.5% 1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 74

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.61 - 0.46 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.54)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 21, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.5%

Win Probability (After): 53.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:37 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 4 at UL 26) Chris Smith run for 74 yds for a TD, (Nate Snyder KICK) - UL 28, ARST 27 6.37 54.2% 20.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.63 = 6.37

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.37)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.2%

Win Probability (After): 74.5%

Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:37 ESPN team id 2032 (Kickoff at ARST 35) Nate Snyder kickoff for 55 yds , Alan Lamar return for 15 yds to the 50 yard line ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Justin Parks) to the ArkSt 15 - UL 28, ARST 27 -0.37 26.9% -1.2%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 85

Started Drive at: ARST 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 0.94 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-8.93)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 25.7%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:19 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 15) Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 19 - UL 28, ARST 27 -0.32 25.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 81

Started Drive at: ARST 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.26 - 0.58 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.42)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.4%

Win Probability (After): 25.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:54 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 6 at ARST 19) Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jeff Foreman - UL 28, ARST 27 -0.92 27.6% -5.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 81

Started Drive at: ARST 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.68 - 0.23 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.77)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.6%

Win Probability (After): 21.8%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:47 ESPN team id 2032 (3rd & 6 at ARST 19) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Emmanuel Stevenson for 7 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST down - UL 28, ARST 27 1.99 23.3% 8.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 74

Started Drive at: ARST 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.22 - -0.77 = 1.99

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-1.77)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.3%

Win Probability (After): 31.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:31 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 26) Johnnie Lang Jr. run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 28 - UL 28, ARST 27 -0.98 31.8% -3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 72

Started Drive at: ARST 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.39 - 1.36 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.36)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.8%

Win Probability (After): 28.1%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:08 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 8 at ARST 28) Layne Hatcher pass incomplete - UL 28, ARST 27 -0.97 28.2% -3.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 72

Started Drive at: ARST 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.39 - 0.58 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.42)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.2%

Win Probability (After): 24.5%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:46 ESPN team id 2032 (3rd & 8 at ARST 28) Layne Hatcher run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 27 - UL 28, ARST 27 -1.40 24.4% -3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 73

Started Drive at: ARST 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.79 - -0.39 = -1.40

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-1.39)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-2.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.4%

Win Probability (After): 21.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:11 ESPN team id 2032 (4th & 9 at ARST 27) Ryan Hanson punt for 40 yds, downed at the LaLaf 33 - UL 28, ARST 27 -0.06 21.2% -1.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 67

Started Drive at: ARST 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.84 - -1.78 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-2.78)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.84)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.2%

Win Probability (After): 20.0%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 0:05 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 33) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Dontae Fleming - UL 28, ARST 27 -0.69 79.6% -3.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: UL 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 1.82 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.82)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.6%

Win Probability (After): 76.6%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 10 at UL 33) Montrell Johnson run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 37 - UL 28, ARST 27 -0.31 76.7% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 63

Started Drive at: UL 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.81 - 1.12 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.12)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.7%

Win Probability (After): 76.2%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:55 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 6 at UL 37) Levi Lewis run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 39 - UL 28, ARST 27 -1.40 77.1% -3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 61

Started Drive at: UL 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.59 - 0.81 = -1.40

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.81)

Score Difference (End): 1 (0.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.1%

Win Probability (After): 73.9%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:22 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 4 at UL 39) Rhys Byrns punt for 52 yds , Johnnie Lang Jr. returns for 2 yds to the ArkSt 41 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (8 Yards) to the ArkSt 3 - UL 28, ARST 27 0.98 72.3% 6.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 97

Started Drive at: UL 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.39 - -0.61 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): 1 (0.41)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.39)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.3%

Win Probability (After): 78.3%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:00 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 3) Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 8 - UL 28, ARST 27 0.14 22.5% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 97 -> 92

Started Drive at: ARST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.30 - -0.44 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-1.44)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.5%

Win Probability (After): 23.2%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:36 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 5 at ARST 8) Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST down - UL 28, ARST 27 1.07 23.0% 3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 83

Started Drive at: ARST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.75 - -0.32 = 1.07

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-1.32)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.0%

Win Probability (After): 26.3%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:18 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 17) Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jeff Foreman - UL 28, ARST 27 -0.73 26.3% -3.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 83

Started Drive at: ARST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.03 - 0.76 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.24)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.3%

Win Probability (After): 23.0%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:09 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 10 at ARST 17) Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 18 - UL 28, ARST 27 -0.90 23.1% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 82

Started Drive at: ARST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.83 - 0.07 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.93)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.1%

Win Probability (After): 20.8%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:18 ESPN team id 2032 (3rd & 9 at ARST 18) Hatcher, Layne pass sacked for loss of 9 yards to the ARST9 (Moncrief, Kris), PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE illegal use of hands (Jones, Andre) 15 yards to the ARST33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARST. - UL 28, ARST 27 2.47 20.8% 10.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 67

Started Drive at: ARST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.78 - -0.69 = 2.47

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-1.69)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.8%

Win Probability (After): 31.6%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 33) Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 5 yds to the ArkSt 38 - UL 28, ARST 27 0.07 31.7% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 62

Started Drive at: ARST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 1.89 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.89)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.7%

Win Probability (After): 32.0%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:50 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 5 at ARST 38) Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST down - UL 28, ARST 27 0.68 32.1% 2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 54

Started Drive at: ARST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 1.95 = 0.68

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.95)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.1%

Win Probability (After): 34.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:43 ESPN team id 2032 (1st & 10 at ARST 46) Layne Hatcher pass incomplete - UL 28, ARST 27 -0.50 35.2% -2.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54

Started Drive at: ARST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.04 - 2.53 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.53)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.2%

Win Probability (After): 32.5%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:35 ESPN team id 2032 (2nd & 10 at ARST 46) Alan Lamar run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 44 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Andre Harris Jr.) declined - UL 28, ARST 27 -1.31 33.1% -7.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 56

Started Drive at: ARST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.67 - 1.98 = -1.31

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.98)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.1%

Win Probability (After): 25.6%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:50 ESPN team id 2032 (3rd & 12 at ARST 44) Layne Hatcher sacked by Chauncey Manac for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 37 - UL 28, ARST 27 -1.53 29.3% -9.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 63

Started Drive at: ARST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.84 - 0.69 = -1.53

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.31)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.3%

Win Probability (After): 19.6%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:26 ESPN team id 2032 (4th & 19 at ARST 37) Ryan Hanson punt for 57 yds, downed at the LaLaf 6 - UL 28, ARST 27 0.74 22.6% 5.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 94

Started Drive at: ARST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - -0.73 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-1.73)

Score Difference (End): 1 (0.99)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.6%

Win Probability (After): 28.2%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:57 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 6) Chris Smith run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 9 - UL 28, ARST 27 -0.44 72.1% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 91

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.45 - 0.00 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.00)

Score Difference (End): 1 (0.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.1%

Win Probability (After): 70.7%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:42 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 7 at UL 9) Smith, Chris rush for 6 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE15, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE holding (Lumpkin, Johnny) 5 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE4, NO PLAY. - UL 28, ARST 27 -0.59 70.6% -4.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 96

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.08 - -0.50 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 1 (0.50)

Score Difference (End): 1 (-0.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.6%

Win Probability (After): 66.6%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:18 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 12 at UL 4) Lewis, Levi pass incomplete to Stephens Jr., John, PENALTY ARST offside 6 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE10, NO PLAY. - UL 28, ARST 27 0.86 65.4% 5.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 90

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.27 - -1.14 = 0.86

Score Difference (Before): 1 (-0.14)

Score Difference (End): 1 (0.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.4%

Win Probability (After): 71.1%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:11 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 6 at UL 10) Chris Smith run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 15 - UL 28, ARST 27 0.35 70.5% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 85

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.00 - -0.35 = 0.35

Score Difference (Before): 1 (0.65)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.5%

Win Probability (After): 71.7%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:26 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 1 at UL 15) Levi Lewis run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 17 for a 1ST down - UL 28, ARST 27 0.80 70.7% 3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 83

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.75 - -0.05 = 0.80

Score Difference (Before): 1 (0.95)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.7%

Win Probability (After): 74.3%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:50 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 17) Chris Smith run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 28 for a 1ST down - UL 28, ARST 27 0.54 74.4% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 72

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.23 - 0.68 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.68)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.4%

Win Probability (After): 75.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:40 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 28) Chris Smith run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST down - UL 28, ARST 27 0.70 76.2% 4.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 61

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.91 - 1.21 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.21)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.6%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:31 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 39) Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 8 yds to the LaLaf 47 - UL 28, ARST 27 0.41 80.9% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 53

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.31 - 1.90 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.90)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.9%

Win Probability (After): 81.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:56 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 2 at UL 47) Montrell Johnson run for no gain to the LaLaf 47 - UL 28, ARST 27 -0.91 81.5% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - 2.37 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.37)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.5%

Win Probability (After): 79.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:17 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 2 at UL 47) Montrell Johnson run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST down - UL 28, ARST 27 1.22 81.0% 2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 49

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.67 - 1.45 = 1.22

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.45)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.0%

Win Probability (After): 83.1%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:47 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at ARST 49) Montrell Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 49 - UL 28, ARST 27 -0.88 84.6% -3.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 51

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - 2.34 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.34)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.6%

Win Probability (After): 80.7%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:03 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 12 at UL 49) Levi Lewis run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 46 - UL 28, ARST 27 -0.25 80.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 46

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 1.45 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.45)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.3%

Win Probability (After): 80.2%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:34 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 7 at ARST 46) Montrell Johnson run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST down - UL 28, ARST 27 1.73 81.7% 6.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 39

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.14 - 1.41 = 1.73

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.41)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.7%

Win Probability (After): 88.1%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:02 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at ARST 39) Montrell Johnson run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 33 - UL 28, ARST 27 0.58 88.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 33

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.49 - 2.90 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.90)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.2%

Win Probability (After): 88.0%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:22 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 4 at ARST 33) Montrell Johnson run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST down - UL 28, ARST 27 0.43 90.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 29

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.55 - 3.12 = 0.43

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.12)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.1%

Win Probability (After): 89.9%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:24 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at ARST 29) Chris Smith run for 13 yds to the ArkSt 16 for a 1ST down - UL 28, ARST 27 1.39 93.0% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 16

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.47 - 3.08 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.08)

Score Difference (End): 1 (5.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.0%

Win Probability (After): 93.8%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:16 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at ARST 16) Chris Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 19 - UL 28, ARST 27 -1.45 93.6% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 19

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 4.32 = -1.45

Score Difference (Before): 1 (5.32)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.6%

Win Probability (After): 93.0%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:16 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 13 at ARST 19) Timeout ARKANSAS ST, clock 02:16 - UL 28, ARST 27 0.00 92.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 2.87 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.87)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.8%

Win Probability (After): 92.8%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:10 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 13 at ARST 19) Chris Smith run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 11 - UL 28, ARST 27 0.93 93.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 11

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.71 - 2.78 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.78)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.3%

Win Probability (After): 93.3%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:09 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 5 at ARST 11) Timeout ARKANSAS ST, clock 02:09 - UL 28, ARST 27 0.00 92.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 11

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.71 - 3.71 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.71)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.8%

Win Probability (After): 92.8%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:01 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 5 at ARST 11) Chris Smith run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 7 - UL 28, ARST 27 -0.30 92.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 7

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.30 - 3.61 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.61)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 17 plays, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.2%

Win Probability (After): 92.0%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:00 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 1 at ARST 7) Timeout ARKANSAS ST, clock 02:00 - UL 28, ARST 27 0.00 91.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 7

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.30 - 3.30 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.30)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 17 plays, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.0%

Win Probability (After): 91.0%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:00 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 1 at ARST 7) Timeout LOUISIANA, clock 02:00 - UL 28, ARST 27 0.00 92.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 7

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.22 - 3.22 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.22)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 17 plays, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.4%

Win Probability (After): 92.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:55 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 1 at ARST 7) Montrell Johnson run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 2 for a 1ST down - UL 28, ARST 27 2.67 92.3% 3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 2

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.91 - 3.24 = 2.67

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.24)

Score Difference (End): 1 (6.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 18 plays, 91 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.3%

Win Probability (After): 95.7%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:52 ESPN team id 309 (1st & Goal at ARST 2) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 3 - UL 28, ARST 27 -0.56 98.5% -3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 3

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.29 - 5.85 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 1 (6.85)

Score Difference (End): 1 (6.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 19 plays, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.5%

Win Probability (After): 95.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & Goal at ARST 3) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 4 - UL 28, ARST 27 1.45 97.4% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 4

Started Drive at: UL 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.15 - 2.70 = 1.45

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.70)

Score Difference (End): 1 (5.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 28, ARST 27

Drive Summary: 20 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.4%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0