Texas State 16 @ Georgia State 28

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 3.52 | Odds: GAST -10.5, O/U 58.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 326 ESPN team id 2247
Total Plays 9381
Total EPA -2.6911.83
  Offensive EPA -5.2517.79
  Special Teams EPA 1.57-4.24
  Penalty EPA 5.25-1.71
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA -4.26-0.01
Production ESPN team id 326 ESPN team id 2247
Scrimmage Plays 7971
  Yards 403503
  Yards/Play 5.107.08
  EPA -5.2517.79
  EPA/Play -0.070.25
Passes 46 (58%)25 (35%)
  Yards 255200
  Yards/Play 5.548.00
  EPA 1.675.45
  EPA/Play 0.040.22
Rushes 33 (42%)46 (65%)
  Yards 148303
  Yards/Play 4.486.59
  EPA -6.9112.34
  EPA/Play -0.210.27
Rushing ESPN team id 326 ESPN team id 2247
Scrimmage Plays 7971
Rushes 33 (42%)46 (65%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 0 (0%)4 (9%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 0 (0%)4 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 7 (21%)3 (7%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 13 (39%)14 (30%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 18 (55%)28 (61%)
OL Line Yards 47.980.7
  Per Carry 1.451.75
Highlight Yards 40111.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 2.223.98
Explosiveness ESPN team id 326 ESPN team id 2247
Total Plays 9381
Scrimmage Plays 7971
Explosive Plays 6 (8%)7 (10%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 4 (9%)3 (12%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 2 (6%)4 (9%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -22.92-1.05
  EPA/Play -0.31-0.02
  When Passing -10.39-3.53
    EPA/Play -0.23-0.14
  When Rushing -12.532.48
    EPA/Play -0.400.06
Situational ESPN team id 326 ESPN team id 2247
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 30 (38%)41 (58%)
  When Passing 17 (37%)12 (48%)
  When Rushing 13 (39%)29 (63%)
  On Standard Downs 16 (36%)35 (61%)
  On Passing Downs 14 (40%)6 (43%)
  On Early Downs 23 (38%)32 (58%)
  On Late Downs 7 (39%)9 (56%)
  During "Middle 8" 2 (25%)3 (30%)
Early Downs 6155
  First Downs Created 16 (26%)13 (24%)
  EPA -5.3813.39
  EPA/Play -0.090.24
  Passes 35 (57%)21 (38%)
  Rushes 26 (43%)34 (62%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 13 (37%)11 (52%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 10 (38%)21 (62%)
"Middle 8" Plays 810
  EPA -0.98-1.64
  EPA/play -0.12-0.16
  Passes 5 (63%)5 (50%)
  Rushes 3 (38%)5 (50%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 1 (20%)1 (20%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 1 (33%)2 (40%)
Drives ESPN team id 326 ESPN team id 2247
Total 1111
Avg Starting Field Position Own 27Own 19
Plays/Drive 9.388.32
Yards/Drive 43.7852.35
Available Yards % 60%64%
Defensive ESPN team id 326 ESPN team id 2247
Scrimmage Plays 7179
Stop Rate 37%35%
Havoc Plays Created 1 (1%)9 (11%)
  Passing 0 (0%)4 (9%)
  Rushing 1 (2%)5 (15%)
TFLs Generated 18
  Passing 03
  Rushing 15
Sacks Generated 0 (0%)2 (4%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 01
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 326 ESPN team id 2247
Turnovers 31
  Fumbles 21
  Fumbles Lost 21
  Fumbles Recovered 00
  Interceptions 10
Turnover Margin -22
Expected Turnovers 1.71.5
Expected Turnover Margin -0.20.2
Turnover Luck (pts) -8.98.9
Special Teams ESPN team id 326 ESPN team id 2247
Total Plays 14 10
Total EPA 1.57 -4.24
  Field Goal EPA 0.14 -2.73
  Punting EPA 0.05 -1.51
  Kickoff Return EPA 1.37 0

Texas State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Brady McBride 27/44, 255 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 2 Scks, 46.5 xQBR 5.54 0.04 1.67 37% -5.0%
Rush attempts
Jahmyl Jeter 4 carries, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.19 -0.76 25% -3.0%
Brady McBride 12 carries, 73 yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 6.08 -0.08 -0.99 58% 4.0%
Brock Sturges 7 carries, 31 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.43 -0.17 -1.22 29% -2.0%
Calvin Hill 10 carries, 44 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 4.40 -0.39 -3.94 30% -11.0%
Pass targets
Javen Banks 7 catches (7 targets), 79 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.29 1.48 10.36 71% 20.0%
Ashtyn Hawkins 6 catches (6 targets), 108 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 18.00 1.70 10.18 100% 8.0%
Marcell Barbee 1 catch (1 target), 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 20.00 1.80 1.80 100% 2.0%
Trevis Graham Jr. 3 catches (3 targets), 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.67 0.27 0.81 67% 2.0%
Rontavious Groves 4 catches (4 targets), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.75 -0.03 -0.11 50% -1.0%
Jahmyl Jeter 1 catch (1 target), 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.33 -0.33 0% 0.0%
Donnovan Moorer 2 catches (2 targets), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.50 -0.34 -0.68 50% -2.0%
Chandler Speights 1 catch (1 target), 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.76 -0.76 0% -1.0%
Calvin Hill 2 catches (2 targets), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.54 -1.08 0% -1.0%

Georgia State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Darren Grainger 16/25, 200 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 58.5 xQBR 8.00 0.22 5.45 48% 10.0%
Rush attempts
Tucker Gregg 21 carries, 115 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.48 0.36 7.52 71% 12.0%
Jamyest Williams 8 carries, 77 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.62 0.78 6.24 62% 21.0%
Marcus Carroll 1 carry, 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 0.61 0.61 100% 1.0%
Terrance Dixon 1 carry, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.44 -0.44 0% -1.0%
Darren Grainger 14 carries, 106 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 7.57 -0.05 -0.72 57% -5.0%
Pass targets
Jamari Thrash 4 catches (4 targets), 74 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 18.50 1.60 6.39 100% 14.0%
Aubry Payne 3 catches (3 targets), 39 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.00 0.95 2.86 67% 8.0%
Roger Carter 1 catch (1 target), 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.00 2.49 2.49 100% 1.0%
Tailique Williams 1 catch (1 target), 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 18.00 1.24 1.24 100% 2.0%
Terrance Dixon 4 catches (4 targets), 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.50 0.23 0.92 50% 1.0%
Ja'Cyais Credle 1 catch (1 target), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 0.70 0.70 100% 2.0%
Robert Lewis 2 catches (2 targets), 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.50 0.08 0.16 50% 0.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 5:11 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at TXST 45) Darren Grainger run for 7 yds to the TexSt 38 - TXST 6, GAST 0 -5.37 66.5% -12.3%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 62

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.44 - 2.93 = -5.37

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.07)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.44)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.5%

Win Probability (After): 54.2%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:59 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 5 at GAST 11) Brady McBride run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 12 - TXST 16, GAST 28 -4.52 1.6% -1.1%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 88

Started Drive at: TXST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.65 - 3.87 = -4.52

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-8.13)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.65)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 14:30 ESPN team id 326 (Kickoff at TXST 35) Noel Ruiz kickoff GEORGIA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the GeoSt 20 - TXST 6, GAST 7 4.26 12.2% 17.4%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 20

Started Drive at: GAST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.56 - 0.30 = 4.26

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-15.98)

Score Difference (End): -1 (3.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.2%

Win Probability (After): 29.6%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 14 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:30 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 7 at TXST 35) Jamari Thrash 35 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Noel Ruiz Kick) - TXST 6, GAST 14 3.77 81.5% 5.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 99

Started Drive at: GAST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.23 = 3.77

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.23)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.5%

Win Probability (After): 87.3%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:08 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 12 at TXST 23) Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 23 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST down - TXST 3, GAST 0 3.44 32.1% 5.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 54

Started Drive at: TXST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.85 - -0.59 = 3.44

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.41)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 3, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.1%

Win Probability (After): 37.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 326 (4th & 5 at GAST 25) GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST down - TXST 0, GAST 0 3.42 22.9% 5.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 20

Started Drive at: TXST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.50 - 1.08 = 3.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 0, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.9%

Win Probability (After): 27.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:46 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 7 at GAST 8) Brady McBride run for 8 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) - TXST 13, GAST 14 3.05 18.3% 4.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99

Started Drive at: TXST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.95 = 3.05

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-4.05)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.3%

Win Probability (After): 22.9%

Away Score: 6 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:30 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 12 at TXST 30) Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 14 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST down - TXST 6, GAST 14 3.05 10.4% 2.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 56

Started Drive at: TXST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - -1.23 = 3.05

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-9.23)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-6.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.4%

Win Probability (After): 13.0%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:34 ESPN team id 2247 (4th & 1 at GAST 42) Tucker Gregg run for 14 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST down - TXST 13, GAST 14 3.04 71.8% 5.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 44

Started Drive at: GAST 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.30 - 0.26 = 3.04

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.26)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.8%

Win Probability (After): 77.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:30 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 14 at TXST 40) Brady McBride pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 26 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST down - TXST 6, GAST 14 2.92 11.8% 2.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 34

Started Drive at: TXST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.40 - 0.48 = 2.92

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.52)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-4.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.8%

Win Probability (After): 14.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 14:30 ESPN team id 326 (Kickoff at TXST 35) Noel Ruiz kickoff GEORGIA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the GeoSt 20 - TXST 6, GAST 7 4.26 12.2% 17.4%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 20

Started Drive at: GAST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.56 - 0.30 = 4.26

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-15.98)

Score Difference (End): -1 (3.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.2%

Win Probability (After): 29.6%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 14 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:30 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at TXST 32) Calvin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 30 - TXST 6, GAST 14 -2.02 24.8% -13.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 70

Started Drive at: TXST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.28 - 1.74 = -2.02

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.74)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.8%

Win Probability (After): 11.3%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:11 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at TXST 45) Darren Grainger run for 7 yds to the TexSt 38 - TXST 6, GAST 0 -5.37 66.5% -12.3%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 62

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.44 - 2.93 = -5.37

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.07)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.44)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.5%

Win Probability (After): 54.2%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:54 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at TXST 18) Jamyest Williams run for 18 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK) - TXST 6, GAST 7 2.27 63.9% 10.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 99

Started Drive at: GAST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.73 = 2.27

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-1.27)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 99 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.9%

Win Probability (After): 74.1%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:10 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at TXST 28) Jamyest Williams run for 28 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK) - TXST 13, GAST 21 2.73 79.9% 9.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 99

Started Drive at: GAST 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.27 = 2.73

Score Difference (Before): 1 (5.27)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.9%

Win Probability (After): 89.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:24 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 11 at TXST 42) Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 13 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST down - TXST 13, GAST 14 1.39 28.0% 7.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 45

Started Drive at: TXST 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 0.88 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.12)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.0%

Win Probability (After): 35.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at TXST 27) Darren Grainger pass complete to Aubry Payne for 27 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK) - TXST 16, GAST 28 2.72 88.3% 6.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.28 = 2.72

Score Difference (Before): 5 (9.28)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.3%

Win Probability (After): 95.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:18 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 8 at TXST 31) MCBRIDE, Brady pass to the right incomplete intended for BARBEE, Marcell thrown to the TXS39; QB hurried by MCCOLLUM, Shamar and CLARK, Jeffery. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on WHITE, Quavian enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the TXS44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - TXST 13, GAST 14 2.14 24.5% 5.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 56

Started Drive at: TXST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 0.34 = 2.14

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.66)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.5%

Win Probability (After): 30.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:30 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 7 at TXST 35) Jamari Thrash 35 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Noel Ruiz Kick) - TXST 6, GAST 14 3.77 81.5% 5.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 99

Started Drive at: GAST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.23 = 3.77

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.23)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.5%

Win Probability (After): 87.3%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:57 ESPN team id 326 (4th & 5 at GAST 14) Seth Keller 31 yd FG GOOD - TXST 16, GAST 21 0.56 15.1% 5.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 65

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.44 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.56)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.1%

Win Probability (After): 20.8%

Away Score: 13 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 11:02 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at GAST 25) Seth Keller 42 yd FG GOOD - TXST 3, GAST 0 -1.34 32.7% -5.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 65

Started Drive at: TXST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 4.34 = -1.34

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.34)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 3, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.7%

Win Probability (After): 27.3%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:02 ESPN team id 326 (4th & 4 at GAST 25) Seth Keller 42 yd FG GOOD - TXST 6, GAST 0 0.92 36.0% 3.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 65

Started Drive at: TXST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.08 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.08)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.0%

Win Probability (After): 39.7%

Away Score: 3 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:54 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at TXST 18) Jamyest Williams run for 18 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK) - TXST 6, GAST 7 2.27 63.9% 10.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 99

Started Drive at: GAST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.73 = 2.27

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-1.27)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 99 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.9%

Win Probability (After): 74.1%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:30 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 7 at TXST 35) Jamari Thrash 35 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Noel Ruiz Kick) - TXST 6, GAST 14 3.77 81.5% 5.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 99

Started Drive at: GAST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.23 = 3.77

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.23)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.5%

Win Probability (After): 87.3%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:46 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 7 at GAST 8) Brady McBride run for 8 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) - TXST 13, GAST 14 3.05 18.3% 4.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99

Started Drive at: TXST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.95 = 3.05

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-4.05)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.3%

Win Probability (After): 22.9%

Away Score: 6 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 8:10 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at TXST 28) Jamyest Williams run for 28 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK) - TXST 13, GAST 21 2.73 79.9% 9.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 99

Started Drive at: GAST 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.27 = 2.73

Score Difference (Before): 1 (5.27)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.9%

Win Probability (After): 89.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:57 ESPN team id 326 (4th & 5 at GAST 14) Seth Keller 31 yd FG GOOD - TXST 16, GAST 21 0.56 15.1% 5.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 65

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.44 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.56)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.1%

Win Probability (After): 20.8%

Away Score: 13 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at TXST 27) Darren Grainger pass complete to Aubry Payne for 27 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK) - TXST 16, GAST 28 2.72 88.3% 6.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.28 = 2.72

Score Difference (Before): 5 (9.28)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.3%

Win Probability (After): 95.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 326 (Kickoff at TXST 35) Noel Ruiz kickoff for 51 yds , Donnovan Moorer return for 22 yds to the TexSt 36 - TXST 0, GAST 0 0.71 20.8% 0.4%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 64

Started Drive at: TXST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.57 - 0.86 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 0, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.8%

Win Probability (After): 21.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at TXST 36) Calvin Hill run for 8 yds to the TexSt 44 - TXST 0, GAST 0 0.75 23.9% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 56

Started Drive at: TXST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 1.82 = 0.75

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.82)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 0, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.9%

Win Probability (After): 24.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 2 at TXST 44) Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST down - TXST 0, GAST 0 -0.07 24.8% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 53

Started Drive at: TXST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - 2.57 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 0, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.8%

Win Probability (After): 25.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at TXST 47) Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 3 yds to the 50 yard line - TXST 0, GAST 0 -0.38 25.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 50

Started Drive at: TXST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 2.49 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 0, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.1%

Win Probability (After): 24.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 7 at 50) Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 20 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST down - TXST 0, GAST 0 1.80 24.6% 2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 30

Started Drive at: TXST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.91 - 2.11 = 1.80

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 0, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.6%

Win Probability (After): 26.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at GAST 30) Brady McBride pass incomplete - TXST 0, GAST 0 -0.63 26.6% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: TXST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 3.91 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.91)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 0, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.6%

Win Probability (After): 26.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 10 at GAST 30) Brady McBride pass incomplete - TXST 0, GAST 0 -0.91 26.1% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: TXST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.37 - 3.28 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 0, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.1%

Win Probability (After): 24.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 10 at GAST 30) GEORGIA ST Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Offsides enforced (5 Yards) to the GeoSt 25 - TXST 0, GAST 0 -1.51 24.7% -3.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 75

Started Drive at: TXST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 2.37 = -1.51

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TXST 0, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.7%

Win Probability (After): 21.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 326 (4th & 5 at GAST 25) GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST down - TXST 0, GAST 0 3.42 22.9% 5.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 20

Started Drive at: TXST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.50 - 1.08 = 3.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 0, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.9%

Win Probability (After): 27.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at GAST 20) Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 3 yds to the GeoSt 17 - TXST 0, GAST 0 -0.22 27.9% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 17

Started Drive at: TXST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.28 - 4.50 = -0.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.50)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 0, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.9%

Win Probability (After): 27.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 7 at GAST 17) Brady McBride run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 13 - TXST 0, GAST 0 -0.26 27.2% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 13

Started Drive at: TXST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.02 - 4.28 = -0.26

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 0, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.2%

Win Probability (After): 26.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 3 at GAST 13) MCBRIDE, Brady pass to the left complete for 12 yards to BARBEE, Marcell caught at the GSU0 and advanced to the GSU1, End of Play. PENALTY TXS Pass Interference on BARBEE, Marcell enforced 15 yards to the GSU28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - TXST 0, GAST 0 -2.08 26.6% -2.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 28

Started Drive at: TXST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.94 - 4.02 = -2.08

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 0, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.6%

Win Probability (After): 24.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 18 at GAST 28) Brady McBride pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 32 - TXST 0, GAST 0 -1.29 24.2% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 32

Started Drive at: TXST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - 1.94 = -1.29

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.94)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 0, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.2%

Win Probability (After): 21.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 326 (4th & 22 at GAST 32) Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 25 fumbled, recovered by TexSt Calvin Hill - TXST 0, GAST 0 -1.51 21.8% -0.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 75

Started Drive at: TXST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.86 - 0.65 = -1.51

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.65)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TXST 0, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.8%

Win Probability (After): 21.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 11:02 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at GAST 25) Seth Keller 42 yd FG GOOD - TXST 3, GAST 0 -1.34 32.7% -5.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 65

Started Drive at: TXST 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 4.34 = -1.34

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.34)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 3, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.7%

Win Probability (After): 27.3%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:02 ESPN team id 2247 (Kickoff at GAST 35) Jacob Bates kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TXST 3, GAST 0 0.00 70.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 0.63 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.37)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 3, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.7%

Win Probability (After): 70.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:02 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 25) Terrance Dixon run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28 - TXST 3, GAST 0 -0.44 70.7% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 72

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - 0.63 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.37)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 3, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.7%

Win Probability (After): 69.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:02 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 7 at GAST 28) Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 33 - TXST 3, GAST 0 0.29 69.8% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 67

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.49 - 0.19 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.81)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 3, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.8%

Win Probability (After): 70.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:02 ESPN team id 2247 (3rd & 2 at GAST 33) Darren Grainger pass incomplete - TXST 3, GAST 0 -1.73 70.1% -3.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.24 - 0.49 = -1.73

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.51)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 3, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.1%

Win Probability (After): 66.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:08 ESPN team id 2247 (4th & 2 at GAST 33) Michael Hayes punt for 42 yds - TXST 3, GAST 0 -0.17 67.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 75

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.44 - -1.27 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.27)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.44)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TXST 3, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.1%

Win Probability (After): 66.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:08 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at TXST 25) Brock Sturges run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 23 - TXST 3, GAST 0 -1.02 34.7% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 77

Started Drive at: TXST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 1.45 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.45)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 3, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.7%

Win Probability (After): 33.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:08 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 12 at TXST 23) Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 23 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST down - TXST 3, GAST 0 3.44 32.1% 5.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 54

Started Drive at: TXST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.85 - -0.59 = 3.44

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.41)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 3, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.1%

Win Probability (After): 37.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:08 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at TXST 46) Brady McBride pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 11 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST down - TXST 3, GAST 0 0.62 37.4% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 43

Started Drive at: TXST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 2.85 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.85)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 3, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.4%

Win Probability (After): 38.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:08 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at GAST 43) Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 41 - TXST 3, GAST 0 -0.47 38.2% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 41

Started Drive at: TXST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 3.47 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.47)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 3, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.2%

Win Probability (After): 37.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:08 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 8 at GAST 41) Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 10 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST down - TXST 3, GAST 0 1.13 37.9% 2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 31

Started Drive at: TXST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.12 - 2.99 = 1.13

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.99)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 3, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.9%

Win Probability (After): 39.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:08 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at GAST 31) Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 6 yds to the GeoSt 25 - TXST 3, GAST 0 0.24 39.9% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 25

Started Drive at: TXST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.36 - 4.12 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.12)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 3, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.9%

Win Probability (After): 40.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:08 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 4 at GAST 25) Brady McBride pass incomplete - TXST 3, GAST 0 -0.76 40.6% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: TXST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.60 - 4.36 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.36)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 3, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.6%

Win Probability (After): 37.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:08 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 4 at GAST 25) Brady McBride pass incomplete - TXST 3, GAST 0 -1.48 37.7% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: TXST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.12 - 3.60 = -1.48

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.60)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 3, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.7%

Win Probability (After): 35.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:02 ESPN team id 326 (4th & 4 at GAST 25) Seth Keller 42 yd FG GOOD - TXST 6, GAST 0 0.92 36.0% 3.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 65

Started Drive at: TXST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.08 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.08)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.0%

Win Probability (After): 39.7%

Away Score: 3 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 7:02 ESPN team id 2247 (Kickoff at GAST 35) Jacob Bates kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TXST 6, GAST 0 0.00 62.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.73 - 0.73 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.27)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.5%

Win Probability (After): 62.5%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:02 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 25) Darren Grainger run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30 - TXST 6, GAST 0 0.17 62.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - 0.73 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.27)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.5%

Win Probability (After): 62.4%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:02 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 5 at GAST 30) Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 34 - TXST 6, GAST 0 0.31 62.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 66

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 0.90 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.10)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.4%

Win Probability (After): 62.0%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:02 ESPN team id 2247 (3rd & 1 at GAST 34) Tucker Gregg run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST down - TXST 6, GAST 0 1.05 62.0% 3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 55

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.26 - 1.20 = 1.05

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.80)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.0%

Win Probability (After): 65.1%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:02 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 45) Darren Grainger pass complete to Ja'Cyais Credle for 10 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST down - TXST 6, GAST 0 0.70 65.1% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 45

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.96 - 2.26 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.74)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.1%

Win Probability (After): 66.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:11 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at TXST 45) Darren Grainger run for 7 yds to the TexSt 38 - TXST 6, GAST 0 -5.37 66.5% -12.3%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 62

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.44 - 2.93 = -5.37

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.07)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.44)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.5%

Win Probability (After): 54.2%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:11 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at TXST 38) Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 8 yds to the TexSt 46 - TXST 6, GAST 0 0.58 49.5% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 54

Started Drive at: TXST 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.02 - 2.44 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.44)

Score Difference (End): 6 (9.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.5%

Win Probability (After): 50.0%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:11 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 2 at TXST 46) Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST down - TXST 6, GAST 0 0.19 50.0% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 49

Started Drive at: TXST 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.21 - 3.02 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): 6 (9.02)

Score Difference (End): 6 (9.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.0%

Win Probability (After): 50.6%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:11 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at GAST 49) Brady McBride pass incomplete - TXST 6, GAST 0 -0.65 50.6% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: TXST 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.56 - 3.21 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 6 (9.21)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.6%

Win Probability (After): 49.8%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:11 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 10 at GAST 49) Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 3 yds to the GeoSt 46 - TXST 6, GAST 0 -0.76 49.8% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 46

Started Drive at: TXST 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.80 - 2.56 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.56)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.8%

Win Probability (After): 48.3%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:11 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 7 at GAST 46) Brady McBride pass incomplete - TXST 6, GAST 0 -1.84 48.3% -3.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: TXST 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - 1.80 = -1.84

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.80)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.3%

Win Probability (After): 45.1%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:24 ESPN team id 326 (4th & 7 at GAST 46) Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 yds, downed at the GeoSt 1 - TXST 6, GAST 0 1.12 39.4% 1.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 99

Started Drive at: TXST 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.92 - -0.20 = 1.12

Score Difference (Before): 6 (5.80)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.92)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.4%

Win Probability (After): 40.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 3:24 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 1) Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 6 - TXST 6, GAST 0 0.23 56.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 99 -> 94

Started Drive at: GAST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.68 - -0.91 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.91)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.5%

Win Probability (After): 56.3%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:24 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 5 at GAST 6) Tucker Gregg run for 21 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST down - TXST 6, GAST 0 1.72 56.3% 2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 73

Started Drive at: GAST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.04 - -0.68 = 1.72

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.68)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.3%

Win Probability (After): 59.1%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:24 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 27) Darren Grainger pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 15 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST down - TXST 6, GAST 0 0.93 59.1% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 58

Started Drive at: GAST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - 1.04 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.96)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.1%

Win Probability (After): 60.5%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:24 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 42) Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 27 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST down - TXST 6, GAST 0 1.91 60.5% 5.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 31

Started Drive at: GAST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.89 - 1.97 = 1.91

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.03)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.5%

Win Probability (After): 66.1%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:24 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at TXST 31) Darren Grainger pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 7 yds to the TexSt 24 - TXST 6, GAST 0 0.32 66.1% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 24

Started Drive at: GAST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.20 - 3.89 = 0.32

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.11)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-1.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.1%

Win Probability (After): 66.5%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:24 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 3 at TXST 24) Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 6 yds to the TexSt 18 for a 1ST down - TXST 6, GAST 0 0.52 66.5% 1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 18

Started Drive at: GAST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.72 - 4.20 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-1.80)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-1.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 81 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.5%

Win Probability (After): 68.2%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:54 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at TXST 18) Jamyest Williams run for 18 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK) - TXST 6, GAST 7 2.27 63.9% 10.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 99

Started Drive at: GAST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.73 = 2.27

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-1.27)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 99 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.9%

Win Probability (After): 74.1%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:54 ESPN team id 326 (Kickoff at TXST 35) Noel Ruiz kickoff for 62 yds , Donnovan Moorer return for 17 yds to the TexSt 10 - TXST 6, GAST 7 -2.09 26.9% -2.7%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 90

Started Drive at: TXST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.02 - 1.07 = -2.09

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.07)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-2.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 24.2%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:54 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at TXST 10) Brady McBride pass incomplete - TXST 6, GAST 7 -0.81 25.1% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90

Started Drive at: TXST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.59 - 0.22 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.78)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.1%

Win Probability (After): 23.8%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:54 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 10 at TXST 10) Jahmyl Jeter run for no gain to the TexSt 10 - TXST 6, GAST 7 -0.88 23.8% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90

Started Drive at: TXST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.47 - -0.59 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-1.59)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-2.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.8%

Win Probability (After): 22.3%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:54 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 10 at TXST 10) Brady McBride pass incomplete - TXST 6, GAST 7 -1.10 22.3% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90

Started Drive at: TXST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.57 - -1.47 = -1.10

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-2.47)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-3.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.3%

Win Probability (After): 20.3%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:01 ESPN team id 326 (4th & 10 at TXST 10) Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 47 - TXST 6, GAST 7 -0.10 19.9% 3.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 53

Started Drive at: TXST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.63 - -2.53 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-3.53)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.63)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TXST 6, GAST 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.9%

Win Probability (After): 23.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:01 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 47) GRAINGER, Darren pass to the right complete for 12 yards to DIXON, Terrance caught at the GSU45 and advanced to the TXS41 (LEFEGED JR., Troy). PENALTY GSU Holding on PAYNE, Aubry enforced 10 yards from the GSU47 to the GSU37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - TXST 6, GAST 7 -0.91 75.9% -1.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 63

Started Drive at: TXST 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.68 - 2.59 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.59)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.9%

Win Probability (After): 74.6%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 20 at GAST 37) Darren Grainger run for 25 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST down - TXST 6, GAST 7 1.82 74.6% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 38

Started Drive at: GAST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.50 - 1.68 = 1.82

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.68)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.6%

Win Probability (After): 77.3%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at TXST 38) Darren Grainger run for 3 yds to the TexSt 35 - TXST 6, GAST 7 -0.29 80.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 35

Started Drive at: GAST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.21 - 3.49 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.49)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.0%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:30 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 7 at TXST 35) Jamari Thrash 35 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Noel Ruiz Kick) - TXST 6, GAST 14 3.77 81.5% 5.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 99

Started Drive at: GAST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.23 = 3.77

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.23)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.5%

Win Probability (After): 87.3%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:30 ESPN team id 326 (Kickoff at TXST 35) Noel Ruiz kickoff GEORGIA ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the GeoSt 20 - TXST 6, GAST 7 4.26 12.2% 17.4%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 20

Started Drive at: GAST 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.56 - 0.30 = 4.26

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-15.98)

Score Difference (End): -1 (3.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.2%

Win Probability (After): 29.6%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 14 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:30 ESPN team id 326 (Kickoff at TXST 35) Michael Hayes kickoff for 50 yds , Caleb Twyford return for 17 yds to the TexSt 32 - TXST 6, GAST 7 -0.11 23.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 68

Started Drive at: TXST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 1.06 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.06)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.7%

Win Probability (After): 23.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:30 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at TXST 32) Calvin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 30 - TXST 6, GAST 14 -2.02 24.8% -13.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 70

Started Drive at: TXST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.28 - 1.74 = -2.02

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.74)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.8%

Win Probability (After): 11.3%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:30 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 12 at TXST 30) Brady McBride pass incomplete - TXST 6, GAST 14 -0.95 11.3% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: TXST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.23 - -0.28 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-8.28)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-9.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.3%

Win Probability (After): 10.4%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:30 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 12 at TXST 30) Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 14 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST down - TXST 6, GAST 14 3.05 10.4% 2.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 56

Started Drive at: TXST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - -1.23 = 3.05

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-9.23)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-6.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.4%

Win Probability (After): 13.0%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:30 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at TXST 44) TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (Jackson Lanam) to the TexSt 39 - TXST 6, GAST 14 -0.90 13.0% -1.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 61

Started Drive at: TXST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - 1.82 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.18)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.0%

Win Probability (After): 12.0%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:30 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 15 at TXST 39) Brady McBride pass complete to Rontavious Groves for 1 yd to the TexSt 40 - TXST 6, GAST 14 -0.43 12.0% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 60

Started Drive at: TXST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.48 - 0.91 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.09)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.0%

Win Probability (After): 11.8%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:30 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 14 at TXST 40) Brady McBride pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 26 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST down - TXST 6, GAST 14 2.92 11.8% 2.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 34

Started Drive at: TXST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.40 - 0.48 = 2.92

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.52)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-4.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.8%

Win Probability (After): 14.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:00 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 5 at GAST 29) Timeout GEORGIA ST, clock 12:00 - TXST 6, GAST 14 0.00 16.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 29

Started Drive at: TXST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.40 - 3.40 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-4.60)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-4.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.3%

Win Probability (After): 16.3%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:00 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at GAST 34) Brady McBride pass complete to Rontavious Groves for 5 yds to the GeoSt 29 - TXST 6, GAST 14 0.19 16.5% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 29

Started Drive at: TXST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.64 - 3.45 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-4.55)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-4.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.5%

Win Probability (After): 16.5%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:00 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 5 at GAST 29) Brady McBride run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST down - TXST 6, GAST 14 0.80 16.5% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 22

Started Drive at: TXST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.44 - 3.64 = 0.80

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-4.36)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-3.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.5%

Win Probability (After): 18.0%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:00 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at GAST 22) Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 21 - TXST 6, GAST 14 -0.51 18.0% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 21

Started Drive at: TXST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.93 - 4.44 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-3.56)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-4.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.0%

Win Probability (After): 17.8%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:00 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 9 at GAST 21) Brady McBride run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 11 for a 1ST down - TXST 6, GAST 14 1.12 17.8% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 11

Started Drive at: TXST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.05 - 3.93 = 1.12

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-4.07)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-2.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.8%

Win Probability (After): 18.3%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:00 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at GAST 11) Brady McBride pass incomplete - TXST 6, GAST 14 -0.57 18.3% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 11

Started Drive at: TXST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.48 - 5.05 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-2.95)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-3.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.3%

Win Probability (After): 17.9%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:00 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 10 at GAST 11) Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 8 - TXST 6, GAST 14 -0.56 17.9% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 8

Started Drive at: TXST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.93 - 4.48 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-3.52)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-4.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 6, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.9%

Win Probability (After): 17.4%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:46 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 7 at GAST 8) Brady McBride run for 8 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) - TXST 13, GAST 14 3.05 18.3% 4.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99

Started Drive at: TXST 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.95 = 3.05

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-4.05)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.3%

Win Probability (After): 22.9%

Away Score: 6 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:46 ESPN team id 2247 (Kickoff at GAST 35) Jacob Bates kickoff for 64 yds - TXST 13, GAST 14 0.00 77.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 1.21 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.21)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.1%

Win Probability (After): 77.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:46 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 25) Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.50 77.1% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.71 - 1.21 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.21)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.1%

Win Probability (After): 75.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:46 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 9 at GAST 26) Darren Grainger run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 32 - TXST 13, GAST 14 0.03 75.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 68

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.74 - 0.71 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.71)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.9%

Win Probability (After): 75.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:46 ESPN team id 2247 (3rd & 3 at GAST 32) Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST down - TXST 13, GAST 14 1.22 75.9% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 64

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.96 - 0.74 = 1.22

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.74)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.9%

Win Probability (After): 78.0%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:46 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 36) Darren Grainger pass incomplete - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.53 78.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.43 - 1.96 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.96)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.0%

Win Probability (After): 77.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:46 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 10 at GAST 36) Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 3 yds to the GeoSt 39 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.66 77.5% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 61

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.77 - 1.43 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.43)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.5%

Win Probability (After): 76.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:46 ESPN team id 2247 (3rd & 7 at GAST 39) Darren Grainger pass incomplete - TXST 13, GAST 14 -1.40 76.3% -3.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.62 - 0.77 = -1.40

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.77)

Score Difference (End): 1 (0.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.3%

Win Probability (After): 73.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:46 ESPN team id 2247 (4th & 7 at GAST 39) GEORGIA ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the GeoSt 34 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.32 73.1% -2.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 66

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.94 - -0.62 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): 1 (0.38)

Score Difference (End): 1 (0.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.1%

Win Probability (After): 70.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 7:18 ESPN team id 2247 (4th & 12 at GAST 34) Michael Hayes punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Rontavious Groves at the TexSt 29 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.51 69.0% 3.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 71

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.56 - -1.04 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 1 (-0.04)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.56)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.0%

Win Probability (After): 72.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 7:18 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at TXST 29) Brock Sturges run for 7 yds to the TexSt 36 - TXST 13, GAST 14 0.39 28.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 64

Started Drive at: TXST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.01 - 1.62 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.62)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.4%

Win Probability (After): 28.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:18 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 3 at TXST 36) Brock Sturges run for no gain to the TexSt 36 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.74 28.4% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: TXST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.27 - 2.01 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.01)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.4%

Win Probability (After): 27.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:18 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 3 at TXST 36) TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the TexSt 31 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.94 27.1% -2.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 69

Started Drive at: TXST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.34 - 1.27 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.27)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.1%

Win Probability (After): 24.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:18 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 8 at TXST 31) MCBRIDE, Brady pass to the right incomplete intended for BARBEE, Marcell thrown to the TXS39; QB hurried by MCCOLLUM, Shamar and CLARK, Jeffery. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on WHITE, Quavian enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the TXS44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - TXST 13, GAST 14 2.14 24.5% 5.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 56

Started Drive at: TXST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 0.34 = 2.14

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.66)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.5%

Win Probability (After): 30.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:18 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at TXST 44) Brady McBride run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST down - TXST 13, GAST 14 0.63 30.4% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 44

Started Drive at: TXST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 2.48 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.48)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.4%

Win Probability (After): 31.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:18 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at GAST 44) Brady McBride pass incomplete - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.47 31.4% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: TXST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 3.11 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): -1 (2.11)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.4%

Win Probability (After): 30.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:18 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 27 at TXST 39) Brock Sturges run for 7 yds to the TexSt 46 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.92 24.8% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 54

Started Drive at: TXST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.51 - 0.41 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.59)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.8%

Win Probability (After): 23.0%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:20 ESPN team id 326 (4th & 20 at TXST 46) Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Terrance Dixon at the GeoSt 13 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.06 23.7% 1.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 87

Started Drive at: TXST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.39 - -0.33 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-1.33)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.39)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.7%

Win Probability (After): 25.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 4:20 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 13) Tucker Gregg run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 20 - TXST 13, GAST 14 0.44 75.0% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 80

Started Drive at: GAST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - 0.36 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.36)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.0%

Win Probability (After): 75.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:20 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 3 at GAST 20) Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST down - TXST 13, GAST 14 0.22 75.5% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 75

Started Drive at: GAST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 0.80 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.80)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.5%

Win Probability (After): 76.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:20 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 25) Jamyest Williams run for no gain to the GeoSt 25 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.52 76.3% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: GAST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.49 - 1.01 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.01)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.3%

Win Probability (After): 75.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:20 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 10 at GAST 25) Darren Grainger pass incomplete - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.65 75.3% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: GAST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.15 - 0.49 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.49)

Score Difference (End): 1 (0.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.3%

Win Probability (After): 72.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:20 ESPN team id 2247 (3rd & 10 at GAST 25) GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (Sam Pinckney) to the GeoSt 20 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.39 72.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 80

Started Drive at: GAST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.55 - -0.15 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 1 (0.85)

Score Difference (End): 1 (0.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.4%

Win Probability (After): 71.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:20 ESPN team id 2247 (3rd & 15 at GAST 20) run for no gain to the GeoSt 20 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.88 71.4% -3.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80

Started Drive at: GAST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.43 - -0.55 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): 1 (0.45)

Score Difference (End): 1 (-0.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.4%

Win Probability (After): 67.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:24 ESPN team id 2247 (4th & 15 at GAST 20) Michael Hayes punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Rontavious Groves at the TexSt 43 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -1.04 64.2% 4.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 57

Started Drive at: GAST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.23 - -1.19 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): 1 (-0.19)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.23)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.2%

Win Probability (After): 68.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:24 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at TXST 43) Brady McBride pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 2 yds to the TexSt 45 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.33 33.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 55

Started Drive at: TXST 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.63 - 1.96 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.96)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.1%

Win Probability (After): 33.0%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:24 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 8 at TXST 45) TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Liam Dobson) declined - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.66 33.0% -4.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: TXST 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.96 - 1.63 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.63)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.0%

Win Probability (After): 28.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:24 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 11 at TXST 42) Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 13 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST down - TXST 13, GAST 14 1.39 28.0% 7.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 45

Started Drive at: TXST 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 0.88 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.12)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.0%

Win Probability (After): 35.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:24 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at GAST 45) Brady McBride pass incomplete - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.37 35.5% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45

Started Drive at: TXST 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.89 - 2.27 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.27)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.5%

Win Probability (After): 33.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:24 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 10 at GAST 45) TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (Marcell Barbee) to the 50 yard line - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.54 33.4% -2.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 50

Started Drive at: TXST 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 1.89 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.89)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.4%

Win Probability (After): 31.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:18 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 14 at GAST 49) Timeout TEXAS STATE, clock 01:18 - TXST 13, GAST 14 0.00 31.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: TXST 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 1.35 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.35)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.8%

Win Probability (After): 31.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:18 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 15 at 50) Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 49 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.22 31.5% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 49

Started Drive at: TXST 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - 1.06 = -0.22

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.06)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.5%

Win Probability (After): 30.0%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:18 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 14 at GAST 49) Brady McBride pass incomplete - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.63 30.0% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: TXST 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - 0.84 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.16)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.0%

Win Probability (After): 27.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:03 ESPN team id 326 (4th & 14 at GAST 49) Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Terrance Dixon at the GeoSt 13 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.43 28.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 87

Started Drive at: TXST 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.25 - 0.18 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.82)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.25)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.0%

Win Probability (After): 27.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:53 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 8 at GAST 15) Timeout GEORGIA ST, clock 00:53 - TXST 13, GAST 14 0.00 71.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 85

Started Drive at: GAST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 0.20 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.20)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.7%

Win Probability (After): 71.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:53 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 13) Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 15 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.04 72.2% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 85

Started Drive at: GAST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 0.24 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.24)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.2%

Win Probability (After): 71.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:48 ESPN team id 2247 (3rd & 2 at GAST 21) Timeout TEXAS STATE, clock 00:48 - TXST 13, GAST 14 0.00 71.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 79

Started Drive at: GAST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 0.20 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.20)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.3%

Win Probability (After): 71.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:48 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 8 at GAST 15) Tucker Gregg run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 21 - TXST 13, GAST 14 0.08 71.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 79

Started Drive at: GAST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.27 - 0.18 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.18)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.6%

Win Probability (After): 71.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2247 (3rd & 2 at GAST 21) Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 22 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.01 70.2% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 78

Started Drive at: GAST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.39 - 0.01 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.01)

Score Difference (End): 1 (0.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.2%

Win Probability (After): 72.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2247 (Kickoff at GAST 35) Jacob Bates kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TXST 13, GAST 14 0.00 72.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 1.13 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.13)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.8%

Win Probability (After): 72.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 25) Darren Grainger pass complete to Tailique Williams for 18 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST down - TXST 13, GAST 14 1.24 72.8% 2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 57

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.37 - 1.13 = 1.24

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.13)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.8%

Win Probability (After): 74.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 43) Darren Grainger pass incomplete - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.64 74.9% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.73 - 2.37 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.37)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.9%

Win Probability (After): 73.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 10 at GAST 43) Darren Grainger pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 5 yds to the GeoSt 48 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.26 73.9% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 52

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 1.73 = -0.26

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.73)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.9%

Win Probability (After): 73.0%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2247 (3rd & 5 at GAST 48) Jamyest Williams run for 6 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST down - TXST 13, GAST 14 1.69 73.0% 2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 46

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.15 - 1.47 = 1.69

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.47)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.0%

Win Probability (After): 75.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at TXST 46) Jamyest Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSt 45 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.68 75.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 45

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 3.15 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.15)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.8%

Win Probability (After): 75.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 9 at TXST 45) Darren Grainger pass incomplete - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.99 75.2% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 2.47 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.47)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.2%

Win Probability (After): 73.0%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2247 (3rd & 9 at TXST 45) Darren Grainger pass incomplete - TXST 13, GAST 14 -2.02 73.0% -3.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.54 - 1.48 = -2.02

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.48)

Score Difference (End): 1 (0.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.0%

Win Probability (After): 69.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:51 ESPN team id 2247 (4th & 9 at TXST 45) Michael Hayes punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Rontavious Groves at the TexSt 13 - TXST 13, GAST 14 0.21 68.9% 3.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 87

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - -0.28 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): 1 (0.72)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.93)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.9%

Win Probability (After): 72.0%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 12:51 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 16 at TXST 7) Brady McBride run for 1 yd to the TexSt 8 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.70 27.8% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 92

Started Drive at: TXST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.41 - -0.71 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-1.71)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-2.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.8%

Win Probability (After): 25.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:51 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 15 at TXST 8) Brady McBride sacked by Blake Carroll for 0 yards to the TexSt 4 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -1.08 25.9% -2.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 96

Started Drive at: TXST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.50 - -1.41 = -1.08

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-2.41)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-3.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.9%

Win Probability (After): 23.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:51 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 19 at TXST 4) Calvin Hill run for 18 yds to the TexSt 22 - TXST 13, GAST 14 0.98 23.4% 2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 78

Started Drive at: TXST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.52 - -2.50 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-3.50)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-2.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.4%

Win Probability (After): 25.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:51 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at TXST 13) TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chandler Speights) to the TexSt 7 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -1.76 30.0% -4.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 93

Started Drive at: TXST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.45 - 0.31 = -1.76

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.69)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-2.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.0%

Win Probability (After): 25.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:34 ESPN team id 326 (4th & 1 at TXST 22) Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 yds - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.48 26.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 67

Started Drive at: TXST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.88 - -1.40 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-2.40)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.88)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.5%

Win Probability (After): 26.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:34 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 33) Darren Grainger pass incomplete - TXST 13, GAST 14 -0.69 74.0% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: GAST 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.22 - 1.92 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.92)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.0%

Win Probability (After): 72.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:34 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 10 at GAST 33) GRAINGER, Darren pass to the right incomplete intended for THRASH, Jamari broken up by WILLIAMS, DC at the GSU46. PENALTY TXS Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, DC GSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SUMTER, Malik , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - TXST 13, GAST 14 0.00 72.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: GAST 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.22 - 1.22 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.22)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.9%

Win Probability (After): 72.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:34 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 10 at GAST 33) Darren Grainger pass complete to Aubry Payne for 7 yds to the GeoSt 40 - TXST 13, GAST 14 0.15 72.9% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 60

Started Drive at: GAST 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.37 - 1.22 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.22)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.9%

Win Probability (After): 73.0%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:34 ESPN team id 2247 (3rd & 3 at GAST 40) Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 42 - TXST 13, GAST 14 -1.11 73.0% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 58

Started Drive at: GAST 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.26 - 1.37 = -1.11

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.37)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.0%

Win Probability (After): 71.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:34 ESPN team id 2247 (4th & 1 at GAST 42) Tucker Gregg run for 14 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST down - TXST 13, GAST 14 3.04 71.8% 5.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 44

Started Drive at: GAST 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.30 - 0.26 = 3.04

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.26)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.8%

Win Probability (After): 77.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:34 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at TXST 44) Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 6 yds to the TexSt 38 - TXST 13, GAST 14 0.19 77.3% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 38

Started Drive at: GAST 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.49 - 3.30 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.30)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.3%

Win Probability (After): 78.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:34 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 4 at TXST 38) Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 10 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST down - TXST 13, GAST 14 0.81 78.1% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 28

Started Drive at: GAST 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.30 - 3.49 = 0.81

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.49)

Score Difference (End): 1 (5.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.1%

Win Probability (After): 79.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:10 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at TXST 28) Jamyest Williams run for 28 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK) - TXST 13, GAST 21 2.73 79.9% 9.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 99

Started Drive at: GAST 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.27 = 2.73

Score Difference (Before): 1 (5.27)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.9%

Win Probability (After): 89.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:10 ESPN team id 326 (Kickoff at TXST 35) Michael Hayes kickoff for 61 yds , Caleb Twyford return for 16 yds to the TexSt 20 - TXST 13, GAST 21 -0.72 11.2% -0.8%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.63 - 0.09 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.91)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.2%

Win Probability (After): 10.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:10 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at TXST 20) Brady McBride pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 11 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST down - TXST 13, GAST 21 1.01 10.6% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 69

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - -0.18 = 1.01

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-8.18)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.6%

Win Probability (After): 11.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:10 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at TXST 31) Brady McBride sacked by Jamil Muhammad for 0 yards to the TexSt 27 - TXST 13, GAST 21 -1.58 11.7% -1.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 73

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.75 - 0.83 = -1.58

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.17)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.7%

Win Probability (After): 10.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:10 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 14 at TXST 27) Brady McBride run for 6 yds to the TexSt 33 - TXST 13, GAST 21 0.13 10.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 67

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.61 - -0.75 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-8.75)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.2%

Win Probability (After): 9.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:10 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 8 at TXST 33) Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - TXST 13, GAST 21 2.65 9.9% 5.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 50

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.04 - -0.61 = 2.65

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-8.61)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-5.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.9%

Win Probability (After): 15.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:10 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at 50) Brady McBride pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 18 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST down - TXST 13, GAST 21 1.54 15.3% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 32

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.58 - 2.04 = 1.54

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.96)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-4.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.3%

Win Probability (After): 17.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:10 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at GAST 32) Brady McBride pass incomplete - TXST 13, GAST 21 -0.65 17.6% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 32

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.93 - 3.58 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-4.42)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-5.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.6%

Win Probability (After): 16.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:10 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 10 at GAST 32) Brock Sturges run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 19 for a 1ST down - TXST 13, GAST 21 1.64 16.7% 3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 19

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.57 - 2.93 = 1.64

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.07)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-3.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.7%

Win Probability (After): 19.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:44 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 9 at GAST 18) Brock Sturges run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 14 - TXST 13, GAST 21 -0.09 18.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 14

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 4.02 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-3.98)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-4.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.4%

Win Probability (After): 18.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:44 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 5 at GAST 14) Brady McBride pass incomplete - TXST 13, GAST 21 -1.54 17.8% -4.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.44 - 3.97 = -1.54

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-4.03)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-5.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.8%

Win Probability (After): 13.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:44 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at GAST 19) Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 1 yd to the GeoSt 18 - TXST 13, GAST 21 -0.55 19.7% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 18

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.02 - 4.57 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-3.43)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-3.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.7%

Win Probability (After): 18.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:44 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 9 at GAST 18) Timeout GEORGIA ST, clock 04:44 - TXST 13, GAST 21 0.00 18.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.02 - 4.02 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-3.98)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-3.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 13, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.4%

Win Probability (After): 18.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:57 ESPN team id 326 (4th & 5 at GAST 14) Seth Keller 31 yd FG GOOD - TXST 16, GAST 21 0.56 15.1% 5.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 65

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.44 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.56)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.1%

Win Probability (After): 20.8%

Away Score: 13 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:57 ESPN team id 2247 (Kickoff at GAST 35) Jacob Bates kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TXST 16, GAST 21 0.00 79.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.25 - 1.25 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.25)

Score Difference (End): 5 (6.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.5%

Win Probability (After): 79.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:57 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 25) Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30 - TXST 16, GAST 21 0.18 79.5% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.44 - 1.25 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.25)

Score Difference (End): 5 (6.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.5%

Win Probability (After): 80.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:57 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 5 at GAST 30) Tucker Gregg run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 32 - TXST 16, GAST 21 -0.63 80.3% -3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 68

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.81 - 1.44 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.44)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.3%

Win Probability (After): 77.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:57 ESPN team id 2247 (3rd & 3 at GAST 32) Darren Grainger run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST down - TXST 16, GAST 21 1.26 77.0% 4.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 65

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 0.81 = 1.26

Score Difference (Before): 5 (5.81)

Score Difference (End): 5 (7.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.0%

Win Probability (After): 81.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:15 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 5 at GAST 40) Timeout GEORGIA ST, clock 02:15 - TXST 16, GAST 21 0.00 83.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 2.07 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 5 (7.07)

Score Difference (End): 5 (7.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.3%

Win Probability (After): 83.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:15 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 35) Darren Grainger pass complete to Aubry Payne for 5 yds to the GeoSt 40 - TXST 16, GAST 21 0.00 82.3% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 60

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.16 - 2.16 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 5 (7.16)

Score Difference (End): 5 (7.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.3%

Win Probability (After): 83.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:15 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 5 at GAST 40) Darren Grainger run for 11 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST down - TXST 16, GAST 21 0.91 83.6% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 49

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.07 - 2.16 = 0.91

Score Difference (Before): 5 (7.16)

Score Difference (End): 5 (8.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.6%

Win Probability (After): 83.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:15 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at TXST 49) Darren Grainger pass incomplete - TXST 16, GAST 21 -0.65 83.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.41 - 3.07 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 5 (8.07)

Score Difference (End): 5 (7.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.8%

Win Probability (After): 83.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:15 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 10 at TXST 49) Darren Grainger run for 12 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST down - TXST 16, GAST 21 1.20 83.6% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 37

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 2.41 = 1.20

Score Difference (Before): 5 (7.41)

Score Difference (End): 5 (8.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.6%

Win Probability (After): 84.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:15 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at TXST 37) Tucker Gregg run for 6 yds to the TexSt 31 - TXST 16, GAST 21 0.39 84.3% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 31

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.00 - 3.61 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): 5 (8.61)

Score Difference (End): 5 (9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.3%

Win Probability (After): 86.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:15 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 4 at TXST 31) Darren Grainger pass complete to Terrance Dixon for 3 yds to the TexSt 28 - TXST 16, GAST 21 -0.06 86.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 28

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.94 - 4.00 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): 5 (9.00)

Score Difference (End): 5 (8.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.4%

Win Probability (After): 86.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2247 (3rd & 1 at TXST 28) Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST down - TXST 16, GAST 21 0.41 88.0% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 27

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.30 - 3.90 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 5 (8.90)

Score Difference (End): 5 (9.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 21

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.0%

Win Probability (After): 86.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at TXST 27) Darren Grainger pass complete to Aubry Payne for 27 yds for a TD, (Noel Ruiz KICK) - TXST 16, GAST 28 2.72 88.3% 6.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: GAST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.28 = 2.72

Score Difference (Before): 5 (9.28)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.3%

Win Probability (After): 95.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 326 (Kickoff at TXST 35) Michael Hayes kickoff for 65 yds , Caleb Twyford return for 20 yds to the TexSt 20 - TXST 16, GAST 28 -0.68 6.1% -0.5%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.45 - 0.22 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.78)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.1%

Win Probability (After): 5.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at TXST 20) Brady McBride pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 11 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST down - TXST 16, GAST 28 1.03 5.9% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 69

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - -0.08 = 1.03

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.08)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-11.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.9%

Win Probability (After): 6.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at TXST 31) Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 32 - TXST 16, GAST 28 -0.73 6.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 68

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - 0.95 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.05)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-11.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.3%

Win Probability (After): 6.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 9 at TXST 32) Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 1 yd to the TexSt 33 - TXST 16, GAST 28 -0.69 6.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 67

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.47 - 0.22 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.78)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.0%

Win Probability (After): 5.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 8 at TXST 33) MCBRIDE, Brady pass to the right incomplete intended for BANKS, Javen broken up by BROWN, Bryquice at the TXS45. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on BROWN, Bryquice enforced 15 yards to the TXS48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - TXST 16, GAST 28 2.54 5.6% 2.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 52

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - -0.47 = 2.54

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.47)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-9.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 7.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at TXST 48) Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 1 yd to the TexSt 49 - TXST 16, GAST 28 -0.53 7.7% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 51

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.54 - 2.07 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-9.93)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-10.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.7%

Win Probability (After): 6.9%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 9 at TXST 49) Brady McBride pass complete to Rontavious Groves for 1 yd to the 50 yard line - TXST 16, GAST 28 -0.77 6.9% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 50

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.77 - 1.54 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-10.46)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-11.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.9%

Win Probability (After): 6.2%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 8 at 50) Brady McBride run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 44 - TXST 16, GAST 28 -0.30 6.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 44

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.47 - 0.77 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.23)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-11.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.2%

Win Probability (After): 6.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 326 (4th & 2 at GAST 44) Jahmyl Jeter run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST down - TXST 16, GAST 28 2.56 6.1% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 40

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.03 - 0.47 = 2.56

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.53)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-8.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.1%

Win Probability (After): 8.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 10 at GAST 40) Brady McBride run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 34 - TXST 16, GAST 28 0.07 7.9% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 34

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 2.39 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-9.61)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-9.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.9%

Win Probability (After): 7.9%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 4 at GAST 34) MCBRIDE, Brady pass to the left incomplete intended for GRAHAM, JR., Trevis broken up by JONES, Jaylon at the GSU0. PENALTY GSU Offsides enforced 5 yards from the GSU34 to the GSU29 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - TXST 16, GAST 28 1.28 7.9% 1.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 29

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.74 - 2.47 = 1.28

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-9.53)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-8.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.9%

Win Probability (After): 9.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at GAST 29) Brady McBride pass incomplete - TXST 16, GAST 28 -0.66 9.3% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 29

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.08 - 3.74 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-8.26)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-8.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.3%

Win Probability (After): 8.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 10 at GAST 29) Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 34 - TXST 16, GAST 28 -2.22 8.8% -2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 34

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 3.08 = -2.22

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-8.92)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-11.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.8%

Win Probability (After): 6.2%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 9:35 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 15 at GAST 34) Brady McBride pass intercepted - TXST 16, GAST 28 -1.85 5.4% -1.3%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 95

Started Drive at: TXST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.93 - 0.92 = -1.85

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.08)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.93)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.4%

Win Probability (After): 4.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:35 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 3) Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 7 - TXST 16, GAST 28 0.01 96.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 97 -> 93

Started Drive at: GAST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.12 - 0.11 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): 12 (12.11)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.6%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:35 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 6 at GAST 7) Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 11 - TXST 16, GAST 28 -0.08 96.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 89

Started Drive at: GAST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.04 - 0.12 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): 12 (12.12)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.5%

Win Probability (After): 96.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:35 ESPN team id 2247 (3rd & 2 at GAST 11) Darren Grainger run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 17 for a 1ST down - TXST 16, GAST 28 1.32 96.4% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 83

Started Drive at: GAST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - 0.04 = 1.32

Score Difference (Before): 12 (12.04)

Score Difference (End): 12 (13.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.4%

Win Probability (After): 97.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:35 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 17) Darren Grainger run for 26 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST down - TXST 16, GAST 28 1.31 97.1% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 57

Started Drive at: GAST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.67 - 1.36 = 1.31

Score Difference (Before): 12 (13.36)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.1%

Win Probability (After): 98.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:35 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 43) Jamyest Williams run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line - TXST 16, GAST 28 0.28 98.0% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 50

Started Drive at: GAST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.96 - 2.67 = 0.28

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.67)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.0%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:35 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 3 at 50) Jamyest Williams run for 2 yds to the TexSt 48 - TXST 16, GAST 28 -0.29 98.4% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 48

Started Drive at: GAST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.67 - 2.96 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.96)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.4%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:35 ESPN team id 2247 (3rd & 1 at TXST 48) Marcus Carroll run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST down - TXST 16, GAST 28 0.61 97.8% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 46

Started Drive at: GAST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.29 - 2.67 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.67)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 98.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:35 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at TXST 46) Darren Grainger run for 2 yds to the TexSt 44 - TXST 16, GAST 28 -0.49 98.7% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 44

Started Drive at: GAST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.79 - 3.29 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.29)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.7%

Win Probability (After): 98.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:35 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 8 at TXST 44) Darren Grainger run for 1 yd to the TexSt 43 - TXST 16, GAST 28 -0.85 98.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 43

Started Drive at: GAST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 2.79 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.79)

Score Difference (End): 12 (13.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.1%

Win Probability (After): 97.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:35 ESPN team id 2247 (3rd & 7 at TXST 43) Darren Grainger pass complete to Roger Carter for 16 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST down - TXST 16, GAST 28 2.49 97.4% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 27

Started Drive at: GAST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.43 - 1.95 = 2.49

Score Difference (Before): 12 (13.95)

Score Difference (End): 12 (16.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.4%

Win Probability (After): 98.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:35 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 17) Jamyest Williams run for 15 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST down - TXST 16, GAST 28 0.75 97.1% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 68

Started Drive at: GAST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 1.36 = 0.75

Score Difference (Before): 12 (13.36)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.1%

Win Probability (After): 97.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:06 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 5 at TXST 22) Timeout TEXAS STATE, clock 03:06 - TXST 16, GAST 28 0.00 99.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: GAST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 2.11 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.11)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:06 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at TXST 27) Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the TexSt 22 - TXST 16, GAST 28 0.30 99.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 22

Started Drive at: GAST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.66 - 3.37 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.37)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:59 ESPN team id 2247 (2nd & 5 at TXST 22) Darren Grainger run for 3 yds to the TexSt 19 - TXST 16, GAST 28 -0.20 99.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 19

Started Drive at: GAST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.46 - 3.66 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.66)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 93 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:59 ESPN team id 2247 (3rd & 2 at TXST 19) Timeout TEXAS STATE, clock 02:59 - TXST 16, GAST 28 0.00 99.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: GAST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.46 - 3.46 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.46)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 93 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:52 ESPN team id 2247 (4th & 6 at TXST 23) Timeout TEXAS STATE, clock 02:52 - TXST 16, GAST 28 0.00 99.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: GAST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.46 - 3.46 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.46)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 93 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:52 ESPN team id 2247 (3rd & 2 at TXST 19) Darren Grainger run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 23 - TXST 16, GAST 28 -1.55 99.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 23

Started Drive at: GAST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 3.37 = -1.55

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.37)

Score Difference (End): 12 (13.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:46 ESPN team id 2247 (4th & 6 at TXST 23) Noel Ruiz 41 yd FG MISSED - TXST 16, GAST 28 -2.73 99.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 77

Started Drive at: GAST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.92 - 1.81 = -2.73

Score Difference (Before): 12 (13.81)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-11.08)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 98.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:46 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at TXST 23) Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 25 - TXST 16, GAST 28 -0.47 1.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 75

Started Drive at: TXST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - 0.92 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.08)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-11.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.4%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:46 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 8 at TXST 25) Brady McBride pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 17 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST down - TXST 16, GAST 28 1.46 1.3% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 58

Started Drive at: TXST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.91 - 0.45 = 1.46

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.55)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-10.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:02 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at GAST 41) Timeout GEORGIA ST, clock 02:02 - TXST 16, GAST 28 0.00 1.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41

Started Drive at: TXST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.91 - 1.91 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-10.09)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-10.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.5%

Win Probability (After): 1.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:02 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at TXST 42) Brady McBride run for 17 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST down - TXST 16, GAST 28 0.52 1.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 41

Started Drive at: TXST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.46 - 1.94 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-10.06)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-9.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.4%

Win Probability (After): 1.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:02 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at GAST 41) Brady McBride pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 25 yds to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST down - TXST 16, GAST 28 2.23 1.6% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 16

Started Drive at: TXST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.68 - 2.46 = 2.23

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-9.54)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-7.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.6%

Win Probability (After): 2.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:02 ESPN team id 326 (1st & 10 at GAST 16) Brady McBride run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 19 - TXST 16, GAST 28 -1.53 2.6% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 19

Started Drive at: TXST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.15 - 4.68 = -1.53

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-7.32)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-8.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.6%

Win Probability (After): 2.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:02 ESPN team id 326 (2nd & 13 at GAST 19) Brady McBride pass complete to Rontavious Groves for 8 yds to the GeoSt 11 - TXST 16, GAST 28 0.90 2.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 11

Started Drive at: TXST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.05 - 3.15 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-8.85)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-7.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.1%

Win Probability (After): 2.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:59 ESPN team id 326 (3rd & 5 at GAST 11) Brady McBride run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 12 - TXST 16, GAST 28 -4.52 1.6% -1.1%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 88

Started Drive at: TXST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.65 - 3.87 = -4.52

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-8.13)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.65)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2247 (1st & 10 at GAST 17) PENALTY TXS Unsportsmanlike Conduct on MASK, DeJordan GSU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on GILMORE, Shamarious , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - TXST 16, GAST 28 -0.09 98.9% 1.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 99

Started Drive at: GAST 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.08 - 0.01 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): 12 (12.01)

Score Difference (End): 12 (11.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TXST 16, GAST 28

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.9%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1