South Alabama 31 @ UL Monroe 41

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 6.15 | Odds: USA -13.5, O/U 51.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 6 ESPN team id 2433
Total Plays 8382
Total EPA 17.0323.11
  Offensive EPA 11.9222.19
  Special Teams EPA 3.151.17
  Penalty EPA 1.951.23
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 0.01-1.48
Production ESPN team id 6 ESPN team id 2433
Scrimmage Plays 7071
  Yards 426570
  Yards/Play 6.098.03
  EPA 11.9222.19
  EPA/Play 0.170.31
Passes 44 (63%)35 (49%)
  Yards 319369
  Yards/Play 7.2510.54
  EPA 11.3327.35
  EPA/Play 0.260.78
Rushes 26 (37%)36 (51%)
  Yards 107186
  Yards/Play 4.125.17
  EPA 0.60-5.16
  EPA/Play 0.02-0.14
Rushing ESPN team id 6 ESPN team id 2433
Scrimmage Plays 7071
Rushes 26 (37%)36 (51%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 2 (8%)1 (3%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 2 (100%)0 (0%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 7 (27%)12 (33%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 11 (42%)17 (47%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 13 (50%)15 (42%)
OL Line Yards 48.726.7
  Per Carry 1.870.74
Highlight Yards 2585.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 1.925.70
Explosiveness ESPN team id 6 ESPN team id 2433
Total Plays 8382
Scrimmage Plays 7071
Explosive Plays 8 (11%)7 (10%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 7 (16%)4 (11%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 1 (4%)3 (8%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -15.57-1.96
  EPA/Play -0.25-0.03
  When Passing -13.4210.24
    EPA/Play -0.310.29
  When Rushing -2.14-12.19
    EPA/Play -0.09-0.37
Situational ESPN team id 6 ESPN team id 2433
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 31 (44%)33 (46%)
  When Passing 20 (45%)19 (54%)
  When Rushing 11 (42%)14 (39%)
  On Standard Downs 21 (50%)19 (41%)
  On Passing Downs 10 (36%)14 (56%)
  On Early Downs 21 (42%)25 (44%)
  On Late Downs 10 (50%)8 (57%)
  During "Middle 8" 10 (91%)6 (55%)
Early Downs 5057
  First Downs Created 9 (18%)15 (26%)
  EPA -2.1713.42
  EPA/Play -0.040.24
  Passes 28 (56%)24 (42%)
  Rushes 22 (44%)33 (58%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 13 (46%)11 (46%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 8 (36%)14 (42%)
"Middle 8" Plays 1111
  EPA 8.166.59
  EPA/play 0.740.60
  Passes 4 (36%)9 (82%)
  Rushes 7 (64%)2 (18%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 4 (100%)6 (67%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 6 (86%)0 (0%)
Drives ESPN team id 6 ESPN team id 2433
Total 1212
Avg Starting Field Position Own 28Own 28
Plays/Drive 7.397.39
Yards/Drive 46.4453.14
Available Yards % 65%74%
Defensive ESPN team id 6 ESPN team id 2433
Scrimmage Plays 7170
Stop Rate 30%24%
Havoc Plays Created 7 (10%)10 (14%)
  Passing 0 (0%)7 (16%)
  Rushing 7 (19%)3 (12%)
TFLs Generated 78
  Passing 05
  Rushing 73
Sacks Generated 0 (0%)4 (9%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 02
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 6 ESPN team id 2433
Turnovers 21
  Fumbles 01
  Fumbles Lost 01
  Fumbles Recovered 00
  Interceptions 20
Turnover Margin -11
Expected Turnovers 0.90.5
Expected Turnover Margin -0.40.4
Turnover Luck (pts) -2.82.8
Special Teams ESPN team id 6 ESPN team id 2433
Total Plays 13 11
Total EPA 3.15 1.17
  Field Goal EPA -2.9 1.5
  Punting EPA 1.47 -0.33
  Kickoff Return EPA 4.58 0

South Alabama [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Jake Bentley 29/40, 319 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT, 4 Scks, 70.5 xQBR 7.25 0.26 11.33 45% 122.0%
Rush attempts
Terrion Avery 13 carries, 75 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.77 0.28 3.70 69% 11.0%
Jake Bentley 3 carries, 19 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.33 0.01 0.04 33% 2.0%
Kareem Walker 5 carries, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.60 -0.20 -0.99 20% 2.0%
Bryan Hill 5 carries, 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.43 -2.15 0% -13.0%
Pass targets
Jalen Tolbert 9 catches (9 targets), 154 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 17.11 1.84 16.56 78% 36.0%
Caullin Lacy 4 catches (4 targets), 53 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.25 1.24 4.97 75% 19.0%
Lincoln Sefcik 1 catch (1 target), 12 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.00 3.57 3.57 100% 7.0%
Jalen Wayne 5 catches (5 targets), 36 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.20 0.51 2.56 40% -6.0%
Brandon Crum 2 catches (2 targets), 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.56 1.12 100% 1.0%
Terrion Avery 7 catches (7 targets), 48 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.86 0.08 0.55 71% 6.0%
Kareem Walker 1 catch (1 target), 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.61 -0.61 0% -1.0%

UL Monroe [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Chandler Rogers 25/35, 369 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 81.8 xQBR 10.54 0.78 27.35 54% 49.0%
Rush attempts
Malik Jackson 2 carries, 49 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 24.50 1.76 3.51 100% 10.0%
Isaiah Phillips 1 carry, 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 0.52 0.52 100% 1.0%
Kadyn Roach 1 carry, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.53 -0.53 0% -1.0%
Andrew Henry 18 carries, 88 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.89 -0.11 -1.96 39% 0.0%
Chandler Rogers 14 carries, 39 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 2.79 -0.48 -6.70 29% -18.0%
Pass targets
Boogie Knight 6 catches (6 targets), 75 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.50 1.62 9.70 100% 20.0%
Will Derrick 5 catches (5 targets), 135 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 27.00 1.79 8.97 60% 1.0%
Jevin Frett 2 catches (2 targets), 39 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 19.50 2.00 4.00 100% 12.0%
Fred Lloyd Jr. 1 catch (1 target), 21 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 21.00 3.58 3.58 100% 9.0%
Jared Sparks 4 catches (4 targets), 45 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.25 0.84 3.34 50% 8.0%
Zach Jackson 3 catches (3 targets), 23 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.67 0.81 2.43 100% 11.0%
Malik Jackson 2 catches (2 targets), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.71 1.41 50% 3.0%
Andrew Henry 1 catch (1 target), 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 17.00 1.16 1.16 100% 5.0%
Isaiah Phillips 1 catch (1 target), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.22 -0.22 0% 0.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q3 1:07 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 9 at ULM 19) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 81 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) - USA 31, ULM 38 6.88 32.6% 22.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 99

Started Drive at: ULM 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.12 = 6.88

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.12)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.6%

Win Probability (After): 54.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 31 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:30 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 11 at USA 34) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 55 yds to the LaMon 11 for a 1ST down - USA 7, ULM 14 5.58 64.7% 11.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 11

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.91 - -0.67 = 5.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.67)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.7%

Win Probability (After): 76.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:18 ESPN team id 6 (4th & 3 at ULM 10) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 10 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) - USA 7, ULM 7 4.28 75.4% 5.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 99

Started Drive at: USA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.72 = 4.28

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.4%

Win Probability (After): 80.5%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 8:12 ESPN team id 2433 (4th & 3 at USA 33) Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 34 - USA 24, ULM 24 -3.62 33.2% -5.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 66

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.98 - 1.64 = -3.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.98)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USA 24, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.2%

Win Probability (After): 27.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:57 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 5 at USA 21) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Fred Lloyd Jr. for 21 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) - USA 31, ULM 31 3.58 19.8% 9.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 99

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.42 = 3.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.58)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:24 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 6 at ULM 12) Jake Bentley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 12 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) - USA 17, ULM 17 3.57 67.6% 6.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.43 = 3.57

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.6%

Win Probability (After): 74.3%

Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:18 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 8 at USA 34) Jake Bentley pass intercepted return for no gain to the SAlab 49 - USA 7, ULM 7 -3.44 80.2% -3.4%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 49

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.03 - 0.41 = -3.44

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.41)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.03)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.2%

Win Probability (After): 76.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:22 ESPN team id 6 (4th & 5 at ULM 21) Diego Guajardo 39 yd FG MISSED - USA 31, ULM 41 -3.42 6.0% 1.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 79

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.32 - 2.10 = -3.42

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.90)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.32)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.0%

Win Probability (After): 7.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:04 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & Goal at USA 9) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 9 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK), (Calum Sutherland KICK) - USA 17, ULM 24 3.37 37.0% 4.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.63 = 3.37

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.63)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.0%

Win Probability (After): 41.6%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 12:30 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 10 at USA 12) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jared Sparks for 12 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) - USA 7, ULM 14 3.29 25.7% 5.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: USA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.71 = 3.29

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.71)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.7%

Win Probability (After): 31.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 0:16 ESPN team id 6 (4th & 9 at USA 37) Jake Bentley pass intercepted return for no gain to the LaMon 47 - USA 31, ULM 41 -1.28 1.5% 98.5%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 53

Started Drive at: USA 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.32 - -0.04 = -1.28

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.04)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.32)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:07 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 9 at ULM 19) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 81 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) - USA 31, ULM 38 6.88 32.6% 22.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 99

Started Drive at: ULM 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.12 = 6.88

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.12)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.6%

Win Probability (After): 54.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 31 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:48 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 10 at USA 33) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 21 yds to the SAlab 38 - USA 0, ULM 7 -0.95 34.4% -21.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 62

Started Drive at: ULM 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 3.94 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.94)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.99)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.4%

Win Probability (After): 12.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:30 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 11 at USA 34) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 55 yds to the LaMon 11 for a 1ST down - USA 7, ULM 14 5.58 64.7% 11.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 11

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.91 - -0.67 = 5.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.67)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.7%

Win Probability (After): 76.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:37 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 3 at USA 20) Andrew Henry run for 20 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) - USA 0, ULM 7 2.26 24.3% 10.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 99

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.74 = 2.26

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.74)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.3%

Win Probability (After): 34.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:23 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 7 at USA 38) Jake Bentley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 30 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST down - USA 10, ULM 17 2.87 61.4% 10.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 32

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.43 - 0.56 = 2.87

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.44)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.4%

Win Probability (After): 71.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:28 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 1 at ULM 40) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 40 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) - USA 31, ULM 24 3.05 79.6% 10.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 99

Started Drive at: USA 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.95 = 3.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.95)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.6%

Win Probability (After): 89.6%

Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:57 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 5 at USA 21) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Fred Lloyd Jr. for 21 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) - USA 31, ULM 31 3.58 19.8% 9.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 99

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.42 = 3.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.58)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:23 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 7 at ULM 29) Jake Bentley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 13 yds to the LaMon 16 for a 1ST down - USA 10, ULM 17 2.07 65.8% 9.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 16

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.58 - 2.51 = 2.07

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.49)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.8%

Win Probability (After): 75.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 6 at ULM 30) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Jackson for 11 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST down - USA 31, ULM 38 1.87 64.2% 9.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 59

Started Drive at: ULM 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.08 - 1.21 = 1.87

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.21)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.2%

Win Probability (After): 73.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 12:37 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 3 at USA 20) Andrew Henry run for 20 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) - USA 0, ULM 7 2.26 24.3% 10.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 99

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.74 = 2.26

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.74)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.3%

Win Probability (After): 34.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:18 ESPN team id 6 (4th & 3 at ULM 10) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 10 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) - USA 7, ULM 7 4.28 75.4% 5.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 99

Started Drive at: USA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.72 = 4.28

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.4%

Win Probability (After): 80.5%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 12:30 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 10 at USA 12) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jared Sparks for 12 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) - USA 7, ULM 14 3.29 25.7% 5.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: USA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.71 = 3.29

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.71)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.7%

Win Probability (After): 31.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:13 ESPN team id 6 (4th & 9 at ULM 10) Diego Guajardo 28 yd FG GOOD - USA 10, ULM 14 0.52 67.7% 6.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 65

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.48 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.52)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.7%

Win Probability (After): 74.1%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:23 ESPN team id 2433 (4th & 9 at USA 22) Calum Sutherland 39 yd FG GOOD - USA 10, ULM 17 0.87 33.6% -1.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 65

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.13 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.13)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.6%

Win Probability (After): 32.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:24 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 6 at ULM 12) Jake Bentley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 12 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) - USA 17, ULM 17 3.57 67.6% 6.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.43 = 3.57

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.6%

Win Probability (After): 74.3%

Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:04 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & Goal at USA 9) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 9 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK), (Calum Sutherland KICK) - USA 17, ULM 24 3.37 37.0% 4.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.63 = 3.37

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.63)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.0%

Win Probability (After): 41.6%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 10:17 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 3 at ULM 8) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 8 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) - USA 24, ULM 24 1.76 63.4% 4.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.24 = 1.76

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.76)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 24, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.4%

Win Probability (After): 67.6%

Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:28 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 1 at ULM 40) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 40 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) - USA 31, ULM 24 3.05 79.6% 10.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 99

Started Drive at: USA 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.95 = 3.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.95)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.6%

Win Probability (After): 89.6%

Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:57 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 5 at USA 21) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Fred Lloyd Jr. for 21 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) - USA 31, ULM 31 3.58 19.8% 9.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 99

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.42 = 3.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.58)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:07 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 9 at ULM 19) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 81 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) - USA 31, ULM 38 6.88 32.6% 22.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 99

Started Drive at: ULM 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.12 = 6.88

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.12)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.6%

Win Probability (After): 54.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 31 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:28 ESPN team id 2433 (4th & 4 at USA 23) Calum Sutherland 40 yd FG GOOD - USA 31, ULM 41 0.63 83.8% -4.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 65

Started Drive at: ULM 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.37 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.37)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.8%

Win Probability (After): 79.5%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2433 (Kickoff at ULM 35) Diego Guajardo kickoff for 64 yds - USA 0, ULM 0 0.00 19.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.1%

Win Probability (After): 19.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at ULM 25) Andrew Henry run for 12 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST down - USA 0, ULM 0 0.97 19.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 63

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 0.86 = 0.97

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.1%

Win Probability (After): 19.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at ULM 37) Chandler Rogers pass incomplete - USA 0, ULM 0 -0.68 19.1% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - 1.83 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.83)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.1%

Win Probability (After): 18.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 10 at ULM 37) Chandler Rogers run for 18 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST down - USA 0, ULM 0 1.91 18.7% 4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 45

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.06 - 1.15 = 1.91

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.15)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.7%

Win Probability (After): 22.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at USA 45) Andrew Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 46 - USA 0, ULM 0 -1.15 22.7% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 46

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.92 - 3.06 = -1.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.7%

Win Probability (After): 20.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 11 at USA 46) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 19 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST down - USA 0, ULM 0 2.18 20.6% 2.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 27

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.09 - 1.92 = 2.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.92)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.6%

Win Probability (After): 23.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at USA 27) Chandler Rogers run for 7 yds to the SAlab 20 - USA 0, ULM 0 0.50 23.4% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 20

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.59 - 4.09 = 0.50

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.09)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.4%

Win Probability (After): 24.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:37 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 3 at USA 20) Andrew Henry run for 20 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) - USA 0, ULM 7 2.26 24.3% 10.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 99

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.74 = 2.26

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.74)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.3%

Win Probability (After): 34.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:37 ESPN team id 6 (Kickoff at USA 35) Calum Sutherland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - USA 0, ULM 7 0.00 74.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.17 - -0.17 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.17)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.4%

Win Probability (After): 74.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:37 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at USA 25) Jake Bentley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 1 yd to the SAlab 26 - USA 0, ULM 7 -0.49 74.4% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.66 - -0.17 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.17)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.4%

Win Probability (After): 73.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:37 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 9 at USA 26) Jake Bentley pass incomplete - USA 0, ULM 7 -0.97 73.0% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.63 - -0.66 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.66)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.0%

Win Probability (After): 71.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:37 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 9 at USA 26) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 17 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST down - USA 0, ULM 7 3.00 71.6% 6.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 57

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.37 - -1.63 = 3.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.63)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.6%

Win Probability (After): 77.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:37 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at USA 43) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 14 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST down - USA 0, ULM 7 1.02 77.7% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 43

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 1.37 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.63)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.7%

Win Probability (After): 78.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:55 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at ULM 42) Malik Jackson run for 11 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST down - USA 0, ULM 7 0.65 33.4% 3.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 47

Started Drive at: ULM 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.77 - 3.12 = 0.65

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.12)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.4%

Win Probability (After): 36.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:55 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at USA 47) Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the SAlab 44 - USA 0, ULM 7 -0.40 34.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 44

Started Drive at: ULM 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 3.75 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.75)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.3%

Win Probability (After): 34.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:55 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 7 at USA 44) Chandler Rogers pass incomplete - USA 0, ULM 7 -1.05 34.1% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: ULM 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 3.34 = -1.05

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.1%

Win Probability (After): 32.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:55 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 7 at USA 44) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 11 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST down - USA 0, ULM 7 2.19 32.5% 2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 33

Started Drive at: ULM 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.48 - 2.29 = 2.19

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.29)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.5%

Win Probability (After): 35.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:55 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at USA 33) Andrew Henry run for no gain to the SAlab 33 - USA 0, ULM 7 -0.55 35.0% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33

Started Drive at: ULM 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.94 - 4.48 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.48)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.0%

Win Probability (After): 34.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:48 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 10 at USA 33) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 21 yds to the SAlab 38 - USA 0, ULM 7 -0.95 34.4% -21.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 62

Started Drive at: ULM 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 3.94 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.94)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.99)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.4%

Win Probability (After): 12.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:48 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at USA 38) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 1 yd to the SAlab 39 - USA 0, ULM 7 -0.60 72.6% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 61

Started Drive at: USA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.34 - 0.94 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.06)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.6%

Win Probability (After): 72.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:48 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 9 at USA 39) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 19 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST down - USA 0, ULM 7 2.03 72.0% 3.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 42

Started Drive at: USA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.37 - 0.34 = 2.03

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.66)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.0%

Win Probability (After): 75.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:48 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at ULM 42) BENTLEY, Jake pass to the left incomplete intended for TOLBERT, Jalen broken up by NEWTON, Josh at the ULM2. PENALTY ULM Pass Interference on NEWTON, Josh enforced 15 yards to the ULM27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - USA 0, ULM 7 1.30 75.4% 2.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 27

Started Drive at: USA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.67 - 2.37 = 1.30

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.63)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.4%

Win Probability (After): 77.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:48 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at ULM 27) Terrion Avery run for 10 yds to the LaMon 17 for a 1ST down - USA 0, ULM 7 1.00 77.4% 2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 17

Started Drive at: USA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.66 - 3.67 = 1.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.33)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.4%

Win Probability (After): 79.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:48 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 8 at ULM 15) Terrion Avery run for 4 yds to the LaMon 11 - USA 0, ULM 7 -0.07 79.5% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 11

Started Drive at: USA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.78 - 4.85 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.15)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.5%

Win Probability (After): 79.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:48 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at ULM 17) SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jalen Wayne) to the LaMon 15 - USA 0, ULM 7 -0.54 79.5% -1.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 15

Started Drive at: USA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.13 - 4.66 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.34)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.5%

Win Probability (After): 78.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:48 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 4 at ULM 11) Terrion Avery run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 13 - USA 0, ULM 7 -1.20 79.5% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 13

Started Drive at: USA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.59 - 4.78 = -1.20

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.22)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.5%

Win Probability (After): 77.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:48 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 6 at ULM 13) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 3 yds to the LaMon 10 - USA 0, ULM 7 -0.93 77.5% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 10

Started Drive at: USA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.66 - 3.59 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.41)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 0, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.5%

Win Probability (After): 75.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:18 ESPN team id 6 (4th & 3 at ULM 10) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 10 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) - USA 7, ULM 7 4.28 75.4% 5.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 99

Started Drive at: USA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.72 = 4.28

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.4%

Win Probability (After): 80.5%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:18 ESPN team id 2433 (Kickoff at ULM 35) Diego Guajardo kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - USA 7, ULM 7 0.00 17.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 1.07 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.1%

Win Probability (After): 17.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:18 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at ULM 25) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Malik Jackson for 4 yds to the LaMon 29 - USA 7, ULM 7 -0.06 17.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 1.07 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.1%

Win Probability (After): 17.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:18 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 6 at ULM 29) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 5 yds to the LaMon 34 - USA 7, ULM 7 0.37 17.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 66

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.37 - 1.01 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.1%

Win Probability (After): 16.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:18 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 1 at ULM 34) Andrew Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 32 - USA 7, ULM 7 -2.55 16.9% -2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 68

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.17 - 1.37 = -2.55

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.9%

Win Probability (After): 14.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:38 ESPN team id 2433 (4th & 3 at ULM 32) Devyn McCormick punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the SAlab 20 - USA 7, ULM 7 0.38 16.5% 1.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 80

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.79 - -1.17 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.79)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.5%

Win Probability (After): 17.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:38 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at USA 20) Jake Bentley pass incomplete - USA 7, ULM 7 -0.70 81.0% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.10 - 0.80 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.80)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.0%

Win Probability (After): 79.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:38 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 10 at USA 20) Jake Bentley pass complete to Terrion Avery for 8 yds to the SAlab 28 - USA 7, ULM 7 0.25 79.7% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 72

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.10 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.7%

Win Probability (After): 80.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:38 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 2 at USA 28) Kareem Walker run for 1 yd to the SAlab 29 - USA 7, ULM 7 -1.34 80.2% -2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 71

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.99 - 0.35 = -1.34

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.2%

Win Probability (After): 77.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:38 ESPN team id 6 (4th & 1 at USA 29) Kareem Walker run for 3 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST down - USA 7, ULM 7 2.74 77.4% 5.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 68

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.75 - -0.99 = 2.74

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.99)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.4%

Win Probability (After): 82.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at USA 32) Kareem Walker run for no gain to the SAlab 32 - USA 7, ULM 7 -0.87 78.1% 3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 68

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.94 - 1.81 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.81)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.1%

Win Probability (After): 81.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 10 at USA 32) Jake Bentley pass complete to Kareem Walker for 2 yds to the SAlab 34 - USA 7, ULM 7 -0.61 78.9% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 66

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.39 - 0.99 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.99)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.9%

Win Probability (After): 77.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:18 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 8 at USA 34) Jake Bentley pass intercepted return for no gain to the SAlab 49 - USA 7, ULM 7 -3.44 80.2% -3.4%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 49

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.03 - 0.41 = -3.44

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.41)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.03)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.2%

Win Probability (After): 76.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:18 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at USA 49) Chandler Rogers run for 7 yds to the SAlab 42 - USA 7, ULM 7 0.33 23.5% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 42

Started Drive at: USA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - 3.08 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.5%

Win Probability (After): 23.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:18 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 3 at USA 42) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 13 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST down - USA 7, ULM 7 0.79 23.9% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 29

Started Drive at: USA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.20 - 3.41 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.41)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.9%

Win Probability (After): 25.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:18 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at USA 29) Andrew Henry run for 17 yds to the SAlab 12 for a 1ST down - USA 7, ULM 7 0.88 25.1% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 12

Started Drive at: USA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.07 - 4.20 = 0.88

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.20)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.1%

Win Probability (After): 26.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:18 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at USA 12) Andrew Henry run for no gain to the SAlab 12 - USA 7, ULM 7 -0.57 26.7% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 12

Started Drive at: USA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.50 - 5.07 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.7%

Win Probability (After): 26.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:18 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 10 at USA 12) Chandler Rogers pass incomplete - USA 7, ULM 7 -0.78 26.3% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 12

Started Drive at: USA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.72 - 4.50 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.50)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.3%

Win Probability (After): 24.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:30 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 10 at USA 12) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jared Sparks for 12 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) - USA 7, ULM 14 3.29 25.7% 5.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: USA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.71 = 3.29

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.71)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.7%

Win Probability (After): 31.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:30 ESPN team id 6 (Kickoff at USA 35) Calum Sutherland kickoff for 58 yds - USA 7, ULM 14 2.50 67.4% 3.4%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.65 - 0.15 = 2.50

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.85)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.4%

Win Probability (After): 70.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:30 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at USA 35) Kareem Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 34 - USA 7, ULM 14 -0.94 67.9% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 66

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - 1.15 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.85)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.9%

Win Probability (After): 66.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:30 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 11 at USA 34) Jake Bentley pass incomplete - USA 7, ULM 14 -0.88 66.0% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.67 - 0.21 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.79)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.0%

Win Probability (After): 64.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:30 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 11 at USA 34) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 55 yds to the LaMon 11 for a 1ST down - USA 7, ULM 14 5.58 64.7% 11.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 11

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.91 - -0.67 = 5.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.67)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.7%

Win Probability (After): 76.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:30 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at ULM 11) Kareem Walker run for no gain to the LaMon 11 - USA 7, ULM 14 -0.58 76.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 11

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.33 - 4.91 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.09)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.4%

Win Probability (After): 75.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:30 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 10 at ULM 11) Jake Bentley run for 4 yds to the LaMon 7 - USA 7, ULM 14 -0.41 75.5% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 7

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 4.33 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.67)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.5%

Win Probability (After): 74.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:30 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 6 at ULM 7) Jake Bentley sacked by Sir'Darrius Ellis for 0 yards to the LaMon 10 - USA 7, ULM 14 -1.43 74.4% -4.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 10

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - 3.92 = -1.43

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.08)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 7, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.4%

Win Probability (After): 70.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:13 ESPN team id 6 (4th & 9 at ULM 10) Diego Guajardo 28 yd FG GOOD - USA 10, ULM 14 0.52 67.7% 6.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 65

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.48 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.52)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.7%

Win Probability (After): 74.1%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:13 ESPN team id 2433 (Kickoff at ULM 35) Diego Guajardo kickoff for 63 yds - USA 10, ULM 14 0.00 25.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.43 - 1.43 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.43)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.6%

Win Probability (After): 25.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:13 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at ULM 25) Chandler Rogers run for 2 yds to the LaMon 27 - USA 10, ULM 14 -0.53 25.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - 1.43 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.43)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.6%

Win Probability (After): 25.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:13 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 8 at ULM 27) ROGERS, Chandler pass up the middle incomplete intended for DERRICK, Will thrown to the ULM36. PENALTY USA Pass Interference on LEWIS, Kwameh enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the ULM37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - USA 10, ULM 14 1.28 25.3% 1.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 63

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 0.90 = 1.28

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.90)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.3%

Win Probability (After): 26.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:13 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at ULM 37) Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 32 - USA 10, ULM 14 -1.37 26.6% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 68

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - 2.18 = -1.37

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.18)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.6%

Win Probability (After): 25.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:13 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 15 at ULM 32) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jevin Frett for 16 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST down - USA 10, ULM 14 1.96 25.3% 2.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 52

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.77 - 0.80 = 1.96

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.80)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.3%

Win Probability (After): 27.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:13 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at ULM 48) Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the SAlab 49 - USA 10, ULM 14 -0.30 27.9% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 49

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.46 - 2.77 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.77)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.9%

Win Probability (After): 27.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:13 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 7 at USA 49) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 16 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST down - USA 10, ULM 14 1.48 27.5% 2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 33

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.95 - 2.46 = 1.48

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.46)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.5%

Win Probability (After): 29.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:13 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at USA 33) Isaiah Phillips run for 10 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST down - USA 10, ULM 14 0.52 29.8% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 23

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.47 - 3.95 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.95)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.8%

Win Probability (After): 31.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:13 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at USA 23) Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 26 - USA 10, ULM 14 -1.11 31.0% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 26

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.35 - 4.47 = -1.11

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.47)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.0%

Win Probability (After): 28.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:13 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 13 at USA 26) Chandler Rogers pass incomplete - USA 10, ULM 14 -0.81 28.6% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.55 - 3.35 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.35)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.6%

Win Probability (After): 26.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:13 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 13 at USA 26) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Isaiah Phillips for 4 yds to the SAlab 22 - USA 10, ULM 14 -0.22 26.7% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 22

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.33 - 2.55 = -0.22

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.55)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.7%

Win Probability (After): 26.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:23 ESPN team id 2433 (4th & 9 at USA 22) Calum Sutherland 39 yd FG GOOD - USA 10, ULM 17 0.87 33.6% -1.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 65

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.13 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.13)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.6%

Win Probability (After): 32.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:23 ESPN team id 6 (Kickoff at USA 35) Calum Sutherland kickoff for 58 yds - USA 10, ULM 17 1.62 62.4% 0.6%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.22 - 0.60 = 1.62

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.40)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.4%

Win Probability (After): 63.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:23 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at USA 35) Jake Bentley pass incomplete - USA 10, ULM 17 -0.51 64.2% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.97 - 1.48 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.52)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.2%

Win Probability (After): 63.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:23 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 10 at USA 35) Bryan Hill run for 3 yds to the SAlab 38 - USA 10, ULM 17 -0.41 63.4% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 62

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 0.97 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.03)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.4%

Win Probability (After): 61.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:23 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 7 at USA 38) Jake Bentley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 30 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST down - USA 10, ULM 17 2.87 61.4% 10.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 32

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.43 - 0.56 = 2.87

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.44)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.4%

Win Probability (After): 71.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:23 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at ULM 32) Bryan Hill run for 1 yd to the LaMon 31 - USA 10, ULM 17 -0.38 71.5% -3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 31

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.05 - 3.43 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.57)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.5%

Win Probability (After): 68.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:23 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 9 at ULM 31) Bryan Hill run for 2 yds to the LaMon 29 - USA 10, ULM 17 -0.54 68.1% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 29

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.51 - 3.05 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.95)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.1%

Win Probability (After): 65.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:23 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 7 at ULM 29) Jake Bentley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 13 yds to the LaMon 16 for a 1ST down - USA 10, ULM 17 2.07 65.8% 9.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 16

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.58 - 2.51 = 2.07

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.49)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.8%

Win Probability (After): 75.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:23 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at ULM 16) Bryan Hill run for 4 yds to the LaMon 12 - USA 10, ULM 17 -0.12 75.0% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 12

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.46 - 4.58 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.42)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.0%

Win Probability (After): 74.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:29 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 6 at ULM 12) Timeout UL MONROE, clock 01:29 - USA 10, ULM 17 0.00 70.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 12

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.46 - 4.46 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.54)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.1%

Win Probability (After): 70.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:29 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 6 at ULM 12) Bryan Hill run for no gain to the LaMon 12 - USA 10, ULM 17 -0.71 71.3% -4.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 12

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 4.16 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.84)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 10, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.3%

Win Probability (After): 66.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:24 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 6 at ULM 12) Jake Bentley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 12 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) - USA 17, ULM 17 3.57 67.6% 6.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: USA 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.43 = 3.57

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.6%

Win Probability (After): 74.3%

Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:24 ESPN team id 2433 (Kickoff at ULM 35) Diego Guajardo kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - USA 17, ULM 17 0.00 26.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 1.14 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.7%

Win Probability (After): 26.7%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:12 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 7 at ULM 28) Timeout SOUTH ALABAMA, clock 01:12 - USA 17, ULM 17 0.00 26.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 72

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 1.14 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.8%

Win Probability (After): 26.8%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:12 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at ULM 25) Chandler Rogers run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28 - USA 17, ULM 17 -0.08 27.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 72

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.19 - 1.27 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.27)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.1%

Win Probability (After): 27.1%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:12 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 7 at ULM 28) Andrew Henry run for 2 yds to the LaMon 30 - USA 17, ULM 17 -0.29 27.1% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 70

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - 1.19 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.1%

Win Probability (After): 24.8%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:12 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 5 at ULM 30) Timeout SOUTH ALABAMA, clock 01:12 - USA 17, ULM 17 0.00 24.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - 0.91 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.91)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.8%

Win Probability (After): 24.8%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:12 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 5 at ULM 30) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 16 yds to the LaMon 46 for a 1ST down - USA 17, ULM 17 1.33 24.1% 5.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 54

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 0.91 = 1.33

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.91)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.1%

Win Probability (After): 29.0%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:12 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at ULM 46) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jared Sparks for 20 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST down - USA 17, ULM 17 1.20 29.0% 3.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 34

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.43 - 2.24 = 1.20

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.24)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.0%

Win Probability (After): 32.8%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:12 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at USA 34) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Jackson for 4 yds to the SAlab 30 - USA 17, ULM 17 0.01 32.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 30

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 3.43 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.43)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.8%

Win Probability (After): 32.7%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:12 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 6 at USA 30) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Jackson for 8 yds to the SAlab 22 for a 1ST down - USA 17, ULM 17 0.55 32.7% 2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 22

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.99 - 3.45 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.45)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.7%

Win Probability (After): 34.8%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:12 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at USA 22) Chandler Rogers pass incomplete - USA 17, ULM 17 -0.34 34.8% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.65 - 3.99 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.99)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.8%

Win Probability (After): 33.4%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:12 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 10 at USA 22) Chandler Rogers pass incomplete - USA 17, ULM 17 -0.44 33.4% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.21 - 3.65 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.65)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.4%

Win Probability (After): 30.8%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:14 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 10 at USA 22) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 13 yds to the SAlab 9 for a 1ST down - USA 17, ULM 17 1.67 31.1% 6.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 9

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.74 - 3.06 = 1.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.1%

Win Probability (After): 37.3%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:14 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & Goal at USA 9) Timeout UL MONROE, clock 00:14 - USA 17, ULM 17 0.00 37.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.74 - 4.74 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.74)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.8%

Win Probability (After): 37.8%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:14 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & Goal at USA 9) Chandler Rogers pass incomplete - USA 17, ULM 17 -0.39 36.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.05 - 4.43 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.43)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.0%

Win Probability (After): 35.6%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:04 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & Goal at USA 9) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 9 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK), (Calum Sutherland KICK) - USA 17, ULM 24 3.37 37.0% 4.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.63 = 3.37

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.63)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.0%

Win Probability (After): 41.6%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:04 ESPN team id 6 (Kickoff at USA 35) Calum Sutherland kickoff for 40 yds - USA 17, ULM 24 -0.05 51.2% -3.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 0.05 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.95)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.2%

Win Probability (After): 48.3%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 6 (Kickoff at USA 35) Calum Sutherland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - USA 17, ULM 24 0.00 48.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.48 - -0.48 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.48)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.3%

Win Probability (After): 48.3%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at USA 25) Jake Bentley pass complete to Brandon Crum for 7 yds to the SAlab 32 - USA 17, ULM 24 0.72 48.3% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 68

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - -0.48 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.48)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.3%

Win Probability (After): 48.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 3 at USA 32) Terrion Avery run for 9 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST down - USA 17, ULM 24 0.76 48.5% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 59

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.00 - 0.24 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.76)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 49.3%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at USA 41) Terrion Avery run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line - USA 17, ULM 24 0.97 49.3% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 50

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - 1.00 = 0.97

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.00)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.3%

Win Probability (After): 50.8%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 1 at 50) Terrion Avery run for 6 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST down - USA 17, ULM 24 0.05 50.8% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 44

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - 1.97 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.03)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.8%

Win Probability (After): 52.0%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at ULM 44) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 15 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST down - USA 17, ULM 24 1.11 52.0% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 29

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.14 - 2.02 = 1.11

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.98)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.0%

Win Probability (After): 53.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at ULM 29) Terrion Avery run for 5 yds to the LaMon 24 - USA 17, ULM 24 0.18 53.2% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 24

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.31 - 3.14 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.86)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.2%

Win Probability (After): 54.6%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 5 at ULM 24) Terrion Avery run for 4 yds to the LaMon 20 - USA 17, ULM 24 0.48 54.6% 2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 20

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 3.31 = 0.48

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.69)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.6%

Win Probability (After): 56.7%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 1 at ULM 20) Terrion Avery run for 5 yds to the LaMon 15 for a 1ST down - USA 17, ULM 24 0.63 56.7% 3.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 15

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.42 - 3.79 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.21)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.7%

Win Probability (After): 60.6%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at ULM 15) Jake Bentley pass complete to Brandon Crum for 7 yds to the LaMon 8 - USA 17, ULM 24 0.40 60.6% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 8

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.82 - 4.42 = 0.40

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.58)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 17, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.6%

Win Probability (After): 61.7%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:17 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 3 at ULM 8) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 8 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) - USA 24, ULM 24 1.76 63.4% 4.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.24 = 1.76

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.76)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 24, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.4%

Win Probability (After): 67.6%

Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:17 ESPN team id 2433 (Kickoff at ULM 35) Diego Guajardo kickoff for 65 yds - USA 24, ULM 24 0.00 35.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.19 - 1.19 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 24, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.0%

Win Probability (After): 35.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:06 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at ULM 39) Timeout UL MONROE, clock 10:06 - USA 24, ULM 24 0.00 34.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.19 - 1.19 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 24, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.0%

Win Probability (After): 34.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:06 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at ULM 25) Andrew Henry run for 14 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST down - USA 24, ULM 24 1.02 32.0% 2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 61

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.15 - 1.13 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 24, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.0%

Win Probability (After): 34.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:06 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at ULM 39) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Malik Jackson for 6 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Keith Gallmon Jr.) to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST down - USA 24, ULM 24 1.48 34.2% 3.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 40

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.63 - 2.15 = 1.48

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.15)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 24, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.2%

Win Probability (After): 37.7%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:06 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at USA 40) QB Keeper ROGERS, Chandler rush to the left for a gain of 13 yards to the USA27 (LUTER JR., Darrell). PENALTY ULM Personal Foul on JACKSON, Zach enforced 15 yards from the USA39 to the ULM46, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred, runner is credited with 1 yards on the play [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - USA 24, ULM 24 -1.53 37.7% -3.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 54

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.10 - 3.63 = -1.53

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 24, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.7%

Win Probability (After): 33.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:06 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 24 at ULM 46) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jared Sparks for 4 yds to the 50 yard line - USA 24, ULM 24 -0.52 33.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 50

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.58 - 2.10 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 24, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.8%

Win Probability (After): 33.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:06 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 20 at 50) Chandler Rogers pass incomplete - USA 24, ULM 24 -1.01 33.2% -3.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.57 - 1.58 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.58)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 24, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.2%

Win Probability (After): 29.4%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:06 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 20 at 50) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Henry for 17 yds to the SAlab 33 - USA 24, ULM 24 1.16 29.4% 4.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 33

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.73 - 0.57 = 1.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 24, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.4%

Win Probability (After): 34.1%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:12 ESPN team id 2433 (4th & 3 at USA 33) Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 34 - USA 24, ULM 24 -3.62 33.2% -5.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 66

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.98 - 1.64 = -3.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.98)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USA 24, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.2%

Win Probability (After): 27.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 8:12 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at USA 34) Terrion Avery run for no gain to the SAlab 34 - USA 24, ULM 24 -0.68 72.7% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: USA 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.23 - 1.91 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.91)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 24, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.7%

Win Probability (After): 71.7%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 8:12 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 10 at USA 34) Terrion Avery run for 17 yds to the LaMon 49 for a 1ST down - USA 24, ULM 24 1.78 71.7% 3.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 49

Started Drive at: USA 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.01 - 1.23 = 1.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.23)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 24, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.7%

Win Probability (After): 75.5%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 8:12 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at ULM 49) Terrion Avery run for 9 yds to the LaMon 40 - USA 24, ULM 24 0.93 75.5% 2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 40

Started Drive at: USA 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.94 - 3.01 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 24, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.5%

Win Probability (After): 78.1%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 6:28 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 1 at ULM 40) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 40 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) - USA 31, ULM 24 3.05 79.6% 10.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 99

Started Drive at: USA 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.95 = 3.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.95)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.6%

Win Probability (After): 89.6%

Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 6:28 ESPN team id 2433 (Kickoff at ULM 35) Diego Guajardo kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - USA 31, ULM 24 0.00 10.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - -0.02 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.02)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.5%

Win Probability (After): 10.5%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:28 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at ULM 25) Malik Jackson run for 38 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST down - USA 31, ULM 24 2.86 10.5% 6.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 37

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.84 - -0.02 = 2.86

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.02)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.5%

Win Probability (After): 16.6%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:28 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at USA 37) Andrew Henry run for 8 yds to the SAlab 29 - USA 31, ULM 24 0.85 16.6% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 29

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.69 - 2.84 = 0.85

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.16)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.6%

Win Probability (After): 17.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:28 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 2 at USA 29) Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the SAlab 26 for a 1ST down - USA 31, ULM 24 0.10 17.8% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 26

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 3.69 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.31)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.8%

Win Probability (After): 18.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:28 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at USA 26) Chandler Rogers pass incomplete - USA 31, ULM 24 -0.60 18.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.20 - 3.79 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.21)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.1%

Win Probability (After): 17.5%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:28 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 10 at USA 26) Chandler Rogers run for 5 yds to the SAlab 21 - USA 31, ULM 24 0.21 17.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 21

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - 3.20 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.80)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.5%

Win Probability (After): 17.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:57 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 5 at USA 21) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Fred Lloyd Jr. for 21 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) - USA 31, ULM 31 3.58 19.8% 9.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 99

Started Drive at: ULM 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.42 = 3.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.58)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:57 ESPN team id 6 (Kickoff at USA 35) Calum Sutherland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - USA 31, ULM 31 0.00 69.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 1.07 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 31

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.6%

Win Probability (After): 69.6%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:57 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at USA 25) Terrion Avery run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 24 - USA 31, ULM 31 -1.13 69.6% -5.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 76

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 1.07 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.6%

Win Probability (After): 64.5%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:57 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 11 at USA 24) Jake Bentley pass complete to Terrion Avery for 9 yds to the SAlab 33 - USA 31, ULM 31 0.91 64.5% 3.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 67

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - -0.06 = 0.91

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.5%

Win Probability (After): 68.4%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:57 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 2 at USA 33) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 32 - USA 31, ULM 31 -2.04 68.4% -7.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 68

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.20 - 0.84 = -2.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.84)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.4%

Win Probability (After): 60.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:42 ESPN team id 6 (4th & 3 at USA 32) Jack Brooks punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 18 - USA 31, ULM 31 0.35 58.9% 5.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 82

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.75 - -1.10 = 0.35

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.75)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USA 31, ULM 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.9%

Win Probability (After): 63.9%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:42 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at ULM 18) Andrew Henry run for 1 yd to the LaMon 19 - USA 31, ULM 31 -0.71 36.4% -4.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 81

Started Drive at: ULM 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 0.77 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.4%

Win Probability (After): 31.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:07 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 9 at ULM 19) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 81 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) - USA 31, ULM 38 6.88 32.6% 22.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 99

Started Drive at: ULM 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.12 = 6.88

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.12)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.6%

Win Probability (After): 54.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 31 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:07 ESPN team id 6 (Kickoff at USA 35) Calum Sutherland kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - USA 31, ULM 38 0.00 42.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.15 - 0.15 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.85)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.6%

Win Probability (After): 42.6%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:07 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at USA 25) Jake Bentley sacked by Caleb Thomas for 0 yards to the SAlab 18 - USA 31, ULM 38 -1.34 42.6% -3.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 82

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.19 - 0.15 = -1.34

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.85)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.6%

Win Probability (After): 39.5%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:07 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 17 at USA 18) Jake Bentley pass incomplete - USA 31, ULM 38 -0.90 39.5% -5.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 82

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.09 - -1.19 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.19)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.5%

Win Probability (After): 34.4%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 17 at USA 18) Jake Bentley pass complete to Terrion Avery for 5 yds to the SAlab 23 - USA 31, ULM 38 -0.76 31.9% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 77

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.84 - -2.08 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.08)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.9%

Win Probability (After): 31.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:48 ESPN team id 6 (4th & 12 at USA 23) Jack Brooks punt for 52 yds , Boogie Knight returns for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 20 - USA 31, ULM 38 0.76 32.2% 0.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 80

Started Drive at: USA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.00 - -2.76 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.76)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.2%

Win Probability (After): 33.0%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:48 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at ULM 20) Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 15 - USA 31, ULM 38 -1.13 66.3% -4.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 85

Started Drive at: ULM 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 1.99 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.99)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.3%

Win Probability (After): 62.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:48 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 15 at ULM 15) Chandler Rogers pass incomplete - USA 31, ULM 38 -0.93 62.1% -4.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 85

Started Drive at: ULM 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.86 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.86)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.1%

Win Probability (After): 58.0%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:48 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 15 at ULM 15) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jared Sparks for 9 yds to the LaMon 24 - USA 31, ULM 38 -0.62 58.0% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 76

Started Drive at: ULM 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.69 - -0.07 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.93)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.0%

Win Probability (After): 57.0%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:35 ESPN team id 2433 (4th & 6 at ULM 24) Devyn McCormick punt for 50 yds, downed at the SAlab 26 - USA 31, ULM 38 0.25 57.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 74

Started Drive at: ULM 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.52 - -0.77 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.23)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.48)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.4%

Win Probability (After): 57.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 13:35 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at USA 26) Jake Bentley pass incomplete - USA 31, ULM 38 -0.82 42.5% -3.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: USA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.36 - 0.47 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.53)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.5%

Win Probability (After): 39.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:35 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 10 at USA 26) Jake Bentley sacked by Caleb Thomas and Ty Shelby for 0 yards to the SAlab 16 - USA 31, ULM 38 -1.77 39.2% -6.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 84

Started Drive at: USA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.13 - -0.36 = -1.77

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.36)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.2%

Win Probability (After): 32.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:35 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 20 at USA 16) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 5 yds to the SAlab 21 - USA 31, ULM 38 -0.78 32.8% -5.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 79

Started Drive at: USA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.91 - -2.13 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.13)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.8%

Win Probability (After): 27.6%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 6 (4th & 15 at USA 21) Jack Brooks punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 26 - USA 31, ULM 38 0.36 24.2% 7.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 74

Started Drive at: USA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.35 - -2.71 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.71)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.35)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.2%

Win Probability (After): 31.5%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at ULM 26) Timeout UL MONROE, clock 12:00 - USA 31, ULM 38 0.00 68.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: USA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.33 - 2.33 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.33)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.2%

Win Probability (After): 68.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at ULM 26) Andrew Henry run for no gain to the LaMon 26 - USA 31, ULM 38 -0.67 67.3% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: ULM 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.66 - 2.33 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.33)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.3%

Win Probability (After): 65.6%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 10 at ULM 26) Chandler Rogers run for 4 yds to the LaMon 30 - USA 31, ULM 38 -0.46 65.6% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 70

Started Drive at: ULM 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 1.66 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.66)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.6%

Win Probability (After): 64.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 6 at ULM 30) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Jackson for 11 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST down - USA 31, ULM 38 1.87 64.2% 9.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 59

Started Drive at: ULM 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.08 - 1.21 = 1.87

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.21)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.2%

Win Probability (After): 73.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at ULM 41) Chandler Rogers run for 5 yds to the LaMon 46 - USA 31, ULM 38 0.00 73.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 54

Started Drive at: ULM 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.07 - 3.08 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.08)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.3%

Win Probability (After): 73.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 5 at ULM 46) Chandler Rogers run for 2 yds to the LaMon 48 - USA 31, ULM 38 -0.56 73.3% -4.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 52

Started Drive at: ULM 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.51 - 3.07 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.07)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.3%

Win Probability (After): 68.4%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 3 at ULM 48) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jevin Frett for 23 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST down - USA 31, ULM 38 2.04 68.4% 9.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 29

Started Drive at: ULM 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.55 - 2.51 = 2.04

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.51)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.4%

Win Probability (After): 77.4%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at USA 29) Kadyn Roach run for no gain to the SAlab 29 - USA 31, ULM 38 -0.53 77.4% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 29

Started Drive at: ULM 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.01 - 4.55 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.55)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.4%

Win Probability (After): 76.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 10 at USA 29) Chandler Rogers run for no gain to the SAlab 29 - USA 31, ULM 38 -0.79 76.7% -3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 29

Started Drive at: ULM 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.23 - 4.01 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.01)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.7%

Win Probability (After): 73.4%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 10 at USA 29) Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 6 yds to the SAlab 23 - USA 31, ULM 38 -0.63 73.4% -4.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 23

Started Drive at: ULM 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.60 - 3.23 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.23)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.4%

Win Probability (After): 69.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:28 ESPN team id 2433 (4th & 4 at USA 23) Calum Sutherland 40 yd FG GOOD - USA 31, ULM 41 0.63 83.8% -4.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 65

Started Drive at: ULM 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.37 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.37)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.8%

Win Probability (After): 79.5%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 6:28 ESPN team id 2433 (0th & Goal at ULM 35) Timeout UL MONROE, clock 06:28 - USA 31, ULM 38 0.00 92.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: ULM 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.00 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.92)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.1%

Win Probability (After): 92.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:21 ESPN team id 6 (Kickoff at USA 35) Calum Sutherland kickoff for 61 yds , Devin Rockette return for 16 yds to the SAlab 20 - USA 31, ULM 38 0.51 22.3% -2.5%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 0.56 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.44)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 38

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.3%

Win Probability (After): 19.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 6:21 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at USA 20) BENTLEY, Jake pass to the right incomplete intended for TOLBERT, Jalen thrown to the ULM50. PENALTY ULM Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Jabari enforced 15 yards to the USA35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - USA 31, ULM 41 1.19 19.6% -7.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 65

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.57 - 0.38 = 1.19

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.62)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.6%

Win Probability (After): 12.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 38 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 6:21 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at USA 35) Jake Bentley pass complete to Terrion Avery for 5 yds to the SAlab 40 - USA 31, ULM 41 0.04 12.7% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 60

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 1.57 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.43)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.7%

Win Probability (After): 13.5%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 6:21 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 5 at USA 40) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for no gain to the SAlab 40 - USA 31, ULM 41 -0.77 13.5% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 1.60 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.40)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.5%

Win Probability (After): 11.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 6:21 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 5 at USA 40) Jake Bentley pass complete to Terrion Avery for 3 yds to the SAlab 43 - USA 31, ULM 41 -0.99 11.2% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 57

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.16 - 0.83 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.17)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.2%

Win Probability (After): 10.6%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 6:21 ESPN team id 6 (4th & 2 at USA 43) Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 4 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST down - USA 31, ULM 41 2.41 10.6% 4.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 53

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.25 - -0.16 = 2.41

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.16)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.6%

Win Probability (After): 14.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 6:21 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at USA 47) Jake Bentley pass complete to Terrion Avery for 12 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST down - USA 31, ULM 41 0.81 14.8% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 41

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.06 - 2.25 = 0.81

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.75)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.8%

Win Probability (After): 16.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 6:21 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at ULM 41) Jake Bentley pass complete to Terrion Avery for 6 yds to the LaMon 35 - USA 31, ULM 41 0.29 16.1% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 35

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.35 - 3.06 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.94)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.1%

Win Probability (After): 17.0%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 6:21 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 4 at ULM 35) Jake Bentley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 9 yds to the LaMon 26 for a 1ST down - USA 31, ULM 41 0.52 17.0% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 26

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.87 - 3.35 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.65)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.0%

Win Probability (After): 18.6%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 6:21 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at ULM 26) Jake Bentley sacked by Quae Drake and Seth Mason for 0 yards to the LaMon 35 - USA 31, ULM 41 -1.61 18.6% -4.9%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 35

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 3.87 = -1.61

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.13)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.6%

Win Probability (After): 13.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 6:21 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 19 at ULM 35) Jake Bentley pass incomplete - USA 31, ULM 41 -0.80 13.7% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 2.27 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.73)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.7%

Win Probability (After): 10.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 6:21 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 19 at ULM 35) Jake Bentley run for 14 yds to the LaMon 21 - USA 31, ULM 41 0.61 10.7% 3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 21

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.09 - 1.47 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.53)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.7%

Win Probability (After): 14.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:22 ESPN team id 6 (4th & 5 at ULM 21) Diego Guajardo 39 yd FG MISSED - USA 31, ULM 41 -3.42 6.0% 1.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 79

Started Drive at: USA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.32 - 2.10 = -3.42

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.90)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.32)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.0%

Win Probability (After): 7.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:18 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 12 at ULM 19) Timeout SOUTH ALABAMA, clock 01:18 - USA 31, ULM 41 0.00 98.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 81

Started Drive at: ULM 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - 0.22 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.22)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.6%

Win Probability (After): 98.6%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:18 ESPN team id 2433 (1st & 10 at ULM 21) Andrew Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 19 - USA 31, ULM 41 -0.53 98.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 81

Started Drive at: ULM 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - 0.75 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.75)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.8%

Win Probability (After): 98.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:10 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 3 at ULM 28) Timeout SOUTH ALABAMA, clock 01:10 - USA 31, ULM 41 0.00 98.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 72

Started Drive at: ULM 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - 0.22 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.22)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.5%

Win Probability (After): 98.5%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:10 ESPN team id 2433 (2nd & 12 at ULM 19) Andrew Henry run for 9 yds to the LaMon 28 - USA 31, ULM 41 0.42 98.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 72

Started Drive at: ULM 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 0.24 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.24)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.8%

Win Probability (After): 98.5%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:06 ESPN team id 2433 (4th & 2 at ULM 29) Timeout SOUTH ALABAMA, clock 01:06 - USA 31, ULM 41 0.00 98.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: ULM 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 0.66 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.66)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:06 ESPN team id 2433 (3rd & 3 at ULM 28) Andrew Henry run for 1 yd to the LaMon 29 - USA 31, ULM 41 -0.73 98.5% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 71

Started Drive at: ULM 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.14 - 0.59 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.59)

Score Difference (End): 10 (9.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.5%

Win Probability (After): 98.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:00 ESPN team id 2433 (4th & 2 at ULM 29) Devyn McCormick punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the SAlab 36 - USA 31, ULM 41 -0.97 98.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 64

Started Drive at: ULM 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.98 - -0.01 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): 10 (9.99)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.02)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:00 ESPN team id 6 (1st & 10 at USA 36) Jake Bentley run for 1 yd to the SAlab 37 - USA 31, ULM 41 -0.16 1.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 63

Started Drive at: USA 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.74 - 0.90 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.10)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.9%

Win Probability (After): 1.9%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:00 ESPN team id 6 (2nd & 9 at USA 37) Jake Bentley pass incomplete - USA 31, ULM 41 -0.28 1.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: USA 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - 0.74 = -0.28

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.26)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.9%

Win Probability (After): 1.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:00 ESPN team id 6 (3rd & 9 at USA 37) Jake Bentley pass incomplete - USA 31, ULM 41 -0.65 1.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: USA 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - 0.46 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.54)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.8%

Win Probability (After): 1.6%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:16 ESPN team id 6 (4th & 9 at USA 37) Jake Bentley pass intercepted return for no gain to the LaMon 47 - USA 31, ULM 41 -1.28 1.5% 98.5%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 53

Started Drive at: USA 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.32 - -0.04 = -1.28

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.04)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.32)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USA 31, ULM 41

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link