Utah State 46 @ San Diego State 13

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 2.97 | Odds: SDSU -6.5, O/U 49.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 328 ESPN team id 21
Total Plays 8384
Total EPA 11.13-18.49
  Offensive EPA 9.75-19.32
  Special Teams EPA -0.41-1.35
  Penalty EPA 0.510.69
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 1.281.49
Production ESPN team id 328 ESPN team id 21
Scrimmage Plays 7169
  Yards 438315
  Yards/Play 6.174.57
  EPA 9.75-19.32
  EPA/Play 0.14-0.28
Passes 45 (63%)34 (49%)
  Yards 318167
  Yards/Play 7.074.91
  EPA 10.28-12.94
  EPA/Play 0.23-0.38
Rushes 26 (37%)34 (49%)
  Yards 79175
  Yards/Play 3.045.15
  EPA -0.52-7.74
  EPA/Play -0.02-0.23
Rushing ESPN team id 328 ESPN team id 21
Scrimmage Plays 7169
Rushes 26 (37%)34 (49%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 1 (4%)2 (6%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 1 (100%)1 (50%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 8 (31%)7 (21%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 15 (58%)16 (47%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 8 (31%)14 (41%)
OL Line Yards 28.848.3
  Per Carry 1.111.42
Highlight Yards 1974.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 2.385.32
Explosiveness ESPN team id 328 ESPN team id 21
Total Plays 8384
Scrimmage Plays 7169
Explosive Plays 8 (11%)2 (3%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 6 (13%)0 (0%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 2 (8%)2 (6%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -14.38-25.54
  EPA/Play -0.23-0.38
  When Passing -8.10-12.94
    EPA/Play -0.18-0.38
  When Rushing -6.28-13.97
    EPA/Play -0.26-0.44
Situational ESPN team id 328 ESPN team id 21
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 31 (44%)25 (36%)
  When Passing 21 (47%)12 (35%)
  When Rushing 10 (38%)12 (35%)
  On Standard Downs 24 (49%)17 (40%)
  On Passing Downs 7 (32%)8 (30%)
  On Early Downs 20 (38%)22 (44%)
  On Late Downs 11 (61%)3 (16%)
  During "Middle 8" 8 (62%)3 (30%)
Early Downs 5350
  First Downs Created 8 (15%)13 (26%)
  EPA -0.93-2.36
  EPA/Play -0.02-0.05
  Passes 32 (60%)22 (44%)
  Rushes 21 (40%)28 (56%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 13 (41%)12 (55%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 7 (33%)10 (36%)
"Middle 8" Plays 1310
  EPA 6.88-1.06
  EPA/play 0.53-0.11
  Passes 10 (77%)5 (50%)
  Rushes 3 (23%)4 (40%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 7 (70%)1 (20%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 1 (33%)1 (25%)
Drives ESPN team id 328 ESPN team id 21
Total 1413
Avg Starting Field Position Own 42Own 31
Plays/Drive 6.067.04
Yards/Drive 37.4138.52
Available Yards % 64%56%
Defensive ESPN team id 328 ESPN team id 21
Scrimmage Plays 6971
Stop Rate 52%25%
Havoc Plays Created 10 (14%)7 (10%)
  Passing 5 (15%)3 (7%)
  Rushing 5 (15%)4 (15%)
TFLs Generated 106
  Passing 52
  Rushing 54
Sacks Generated 5 (15%)2 (4%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 01
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 328 ESPN team id 21
Turnovers 13
  Fumbles 04
  Fumbles Lost 03
  Fumbles Recovered 01
  Interceptions 10
Turnover Margin 2-2
Expected Turnovers 2.22.0
Expected Turnover Margin -0.20.2
Turnover Luck (pts) 11.1-11.1
Special Teams ESPN team id 328 ESPN team id 21
Total Plays 12 15
Total EPA -0.41 -1.35
  Field Goal EPA -3.99 -1.31
  Punting EPA 1.47 -1.61
  Kickoff Return EPA 2.11 1.57

Utah State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Logan Bonner 29/42, 318 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT, 2 Scks, 73.2 xQBR, 0.99 DETMER 7.23 0.22 9.87 45% 7.0%
TEAM 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 82.0 xQBR, 0.00 DETMER 0.00 0.41 0.41 100% 0.0%
Rush attempts
Jordan Nathan 1 carry, 0 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 3.54 3.54 100% 0.0%
Logan Bonner 1 carry, 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.00 2.21 2.21 100% 3.0%
Deven Thompkins 1 carry, -3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -3.00 -1.22 -1.22 0% 0.0%
Calvin Tyler Jr. 16 carries, 41 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.56 -0.14 -2.31 44% -5.0%
Elelyon Noa 7 carries, 29 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.14 -0.39 -2.74 14% -3.0%
Pass targets
Brandon Bowling 8 catches (9 targets), 154 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 19.25 1.23 11.11 56% 16.0%
Justin McGriff 3 catches (4 targets), 42 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.00 1.15 4.59 75% 1.0%
Calvin Tyler Jr. 1 catch (1 target), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 2.19 2.19 100% 4.0%
Derek Wright 6 catches (10 targets), 57 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.50 0.17 1.70 50% 3.0%
Deven Thompkins 9 catches (12 targets), 46 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.11 0.06 0.68 42% -7.0%
Carson Terrell 1 catch (2 targets), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.02 -0.05 50% 1.0%
Elelyon Noa 1 catch (1 target), 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 -0.48 -0.48 0% 0.0%
Josh Sterzer 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.86 -0.86 0% 0.0%

San Diego State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Jalen Mayden 5/6, 50 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 77.3 xQBR, 0.06 DETMER 7.14 0.43 2.99 71% 100.0%
Jordon Brookshire 11/23, 117 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 4 Scks, 16.3 xQBR, 0.00 DETMER 4.33 -0.59 -15.93 26% -20.0%
Rush attempts
Jalen Mayden 3 carries, 44 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 14.67 1.61 4.84 67% 0.0%
Chance Bell 6 carries, 39 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.50 0.25 1.53 33% 2.0%
Kaegun Williams 1 carry, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.49 -0.49 0% -3.0%
Jordan Byrd 1 carry, 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.63 -0.63 0% -2.0%
Jaylon Armstead 5 carries, 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.80 -0.29 -1.47 40% 0.0%
Jordon Brookshire 7 carries, 24 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.43 -0.24 -1.65 29% -4.0%
Greg Bell 11 carries, 50 yds, 0 TD, 2 Fum (2 lost) 4.55 -0.90 -9.88 36% -13.0%
Pass targets
Jesse Matthews 8 catches (11 targets), 82 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.25 0.27 2.92 64% 7.0%
Elijah Kothe 2 catches (3 targets), 32 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.00 0.38 1.15 33% 2.0%
Darius De Los Reyes 1 catch (1 target), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.00 1.14 1.14 100% 0.0%
BJ Busbee 3 catches (5 targets), 34 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.33 0.08 0.42 60% -1.0%
Kaegun Williams 1 catch (1 target), 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.49 -0.49 0% -2.0%
Jordan Byrd 1 catch (1 target), 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.66 -0.66 0% -2.0%
Greg Bell 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.01 -1.01 0% -1.0%
Mekhi Shaw 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.28 -1.28 0% -4.0%
Isaiah Richardson 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.63 -1.63 0% 1.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q3 9:55 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 20 at USU 39) Logan Bonner pass intercepted Patrick McMorris return for 25 yds to the SANDIEGOST 36 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Keshawn Banks) to the UthSt 40 - USU 23, SDSU 3 -5.23 95.6% -5.1%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 40

Started Drive at: USU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.53 - 2.69 = -5.23

Score Difference (Before): 20 (22.69)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-17.47)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.5%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:39 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 22) Greg Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 20 Greg Bell fumbled, recovered by UthSt Marcus Moore - USU 29, SDSU 6 -4.66 1.6% -0.6%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 20

Started Drive at: SDSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -5.14 - -0.48 = -4.66

Score Difference (Before): -23 (-23.48)

Score Difference (End): 23 (28.14)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 29, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.6%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:09 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 2 at USU 41) Jalen Mayden run for 33 yds to the UthSt 8 for a 1ST down - USU 46, SDSU 13 4.37 0.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 8

Started Drive at: SDSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.83 - 0.46 = 4.37

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-32.54)

Score Difference (End): -33 (-28.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 46, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 46 (46) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 5:19 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 4 at USU 31) Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 33 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 35 Jordan Byrd fumbled, recovered by UthSt Jaden Smith - USU 23, SDSU 6 4.32 93.9% 1.8%

Play Type: Punt Team Fumble Recovery

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 35

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.42 - 0.11 = 4.32

Score Difference (Before): 17 (17.11)

Score Difference (End): 17 (21.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.9%

Win Probability (After): 95.8%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 13:09 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 6 at USU 42) Brandon Bowling 58 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick) - USU 21, SDSU 3 4.26 74.8% 10.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 99

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.74 = 4.26

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.74)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 21, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.8%

Win Probability (After): 84.8%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:06 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 1 at USU 12) Greg Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 13 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -4.25 70.3% -11.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 87

Started Drive at: SDSU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - 3.89 = -4.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.89)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.35)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.3%

Win Probability (After): 59.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:21 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 3 at SDSU 9) Justin McGriff 9 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick) - USU 39, SDSU 6 3.90 99.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: SDSU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.10 = 3.90

Score Difference (Before): 26 (29.10)

Score Difference (End): 33 (33.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 39, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 32 (39) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 8:01 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 2 at USU 18) Brookshire, Jordon pass incomplete to Kothe, Elijah, PENALTY UTAHST pass interference (Lampkin, Cam) 15 yards to the UTAHST3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SANDIEGOST. - USU 23, SDSU 3 3.78 8.8% 4.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 3

Started Drive at: USU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.98 - 2.20 = 3.78

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-17.80)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-14.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.8%

Win Probability (After): 13.1%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 3:58 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at SDSU 27) Jordan Nathan 0 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick) - USU 46, SDSU 13 3.54 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: SDSU 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.46 = 3.54

Score Difference (Before): 26 (29.46)

Score Difference (End): 33 (33.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 46, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 39 (46) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:29 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 12 at SDSU 29) Connor Coles 46 yd FG MISSED - USU 0, SDSU 0 -3.04 42.6% -2.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 71

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.64 - 1.40 = -3.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.40)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.64)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.6%

Win Probability (After): 40.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 21 (4th & Goal at USU 9) Jalen Mayden sacked by Justin Rice for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 17 - USU 46, SDSU 13 -2.03 0.4% 99.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 83

Started Drive at: SDSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.24 - 1.80 = -2.03

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-31.20)

Score Difference (End): 33 (33.24)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 46, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 46 (46) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 11:38 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 9 at SDSU 16) Team Safety - USU 23, SDSU 3 1.36 8.4% 59.8%

Play Type: Safety

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 99

Started Drive at: SDSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.00 - -3.36 = 1.36

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-21.36)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-20.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.4%

Win Probability (After): 68.2%

Away Score: 21 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:06 ESPN team id 328 (1st & Goal at SDSU 5) Derek Wright 5 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick) - USU 7, SDSU 0 1.19 48.5% 11.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: USU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.81 = 1.19

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.81)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 7, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 59.7%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:06 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 1 at USU 12) Greg Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 13 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -4.25 70.3% -11.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 87

Started Drive at: SDSU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - 3.89 = -4.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.89)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.35)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.3%

Win Probability (After): 59.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:01 ESPN team id 21 (4th & Goal at USU 6) Matt Araiza 23 Yd Field Goal - USU 14, SDSU 3 0.43 26.7% 10.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: SDSU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.57 = 0.43

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.43)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.7%

Win Probability (After): 37.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 13:09 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 6 at USU 42) Brandon Bowling 58 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick) - USU 21, SDSU 3 4.26 74.8% 10.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 99

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.74 = 4.26

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.74)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 21, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.8%

Win Probability (After): 84.8%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:26 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 10 at SDSU 29) Jordon Brookshire sacked by Byron Vaughns for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 26 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -1.74 62.1% -7.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 74

Started Drive at: SDSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.93 - -0.19 = -1.74

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.1%

Win Probability (After): 55.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:21 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 2 at SDSU 44) Greg Bell run for 16 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST down - USU 7, SDSU 0 1.11 44.6% 6.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 40

Started Drive at: SDSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.10 - 1.99 = 1.11

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.01)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 7, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.6%

Win Probability (After): 51.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:57 ESPN team id 328 (1st & Goal at SDSU 1) Calvin Tyler Jr. 1 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick) - USU 14, SDSU 0 0.64 72.0% 6.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: USU 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.36 = 0.64

Score Difference (Before): 7 (13.36)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.0%

Win Probability (After): 78.9%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 29) Jordon Brookshire sacked by Nick Heninger for a loss of 9 yards to the SDSt 20 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -1.91 60.1% -6.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 80

Started Drive at: SDSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.28 - 1.63 = -1.91

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.1%

Win Probability (After): 53.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 9:06 ESPN team id 328 (1st & Goal at SDSU 5) Derek Wright 5 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick) - USU 7, SDSU 0 1.19 48.5% 11.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: USU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.81 = 1.19

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.81)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 7, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 59.7%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:57 ESPN team id 328 (1st & Goal at SDSU 1) Calvin Tyler Jr. 1 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick) - USU 14, SDSU 0 0.64 72.0% 6.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: USU 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.36 = 0.64

Score Difference (Before): 7 (13.36)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.0%

Win Probability (After): 78.9%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:01 ESPN team id 21 (4th & Goal at USU 6) Matt Araiza 23 Yd Field Goal - USU 14, SDSU 3 0.43 26.7% 10.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: SDSU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.57 = 0.43

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.43)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.7%

Win Probability (After): 37.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 13:09 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 6 at USU 42) Brandon Bowling 58 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick) - USU 21, SDSU 3 4.26 74.8% 10.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 99

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.74 = 4.26

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.74)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 21, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.8%

Win Probability (After): 84.8%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:38 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 9 at SDSU 16) Team Safety - USU 23, SDSU 3 1.36 8.4% 59.8%

Play Type: Safety

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 99

Started Drive at: SDSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.00 - -3.36 = 1.36

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-21.36)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-20.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.4%

Win Probability (After): 68.2%

Away Score: 21 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:58 ESPN team id 21 (4th & Goal at USU 19) Matt Araiza 36 Yd Field Goal - USU 23, SDSU 6 0.85 7.8% 2.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: USU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.15 = 0.85

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-17.85)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.8%

Win Probability (After): 10.5%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 3 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:54 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 4 at SDSU 18) Brandon Bowling 18 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles PAT blocked) - USU 29, SDSU 6 2.45 97.2% 1.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 99

Started Drive at: SDSU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.92 - 4.47 = 2.45

Score Difference (Before): 17 (21.47)

Score Difference (End): 23 (23.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 29, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 23 (29) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:40 ESPN team id 328 (4th & Goal at SDSU 3) Connor Coles 20 Yd Field Goal - USU 32, SDSU 6 -0.10 99.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 3

Started Drive at: SDSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.10 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): 23 (26.10)

Score Difference (End): 26 (26.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 32, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 29 (32) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:21 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 3 at SDSU 9) Justin McGriff 9 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick) - USU 39, SDSU 6 3.90 99.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: SDSU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.10 = 3.90

Score Difference (Before): 26 (29.10)

Score Difference (End): 33 (33.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 39, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 32 (39) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 6:22 ESPN team id 21 (1st & Goal at USU 5) Jesse Matthews 5 Yd pass from Jalen Mayden (Matt Araiza Kick) - USU 39, SDSU 13 1.59 0.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: SDSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.41 = 1.59

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-27.59)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-26.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 39, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 6 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:58 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at SDSU 27) Jordan Nathan 0 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick) - USU 46, SDSU 13 3.54 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: SDSU 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.46 = 3.54

Score Difference (Before): 26 (29.46)

Score Difference (End): 33 (33.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 46, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 39 (46) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 21 (Kickoff at SDSU 35) Elliott Nimrod kickoff for 51 yds , Elijah Kothe return for 13 yds to the SDSt 27 - USU 0, SDSU 0 0.35 66.3% 0.6%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 73

Started Drive at: SDSU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 0.86 = 0.35

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.3%

Win Probability (After): 66.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:54 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 27) Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 31 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.26 69.6% -3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 69

Started Drive at: SDSU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 1.28 = -0.26

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.6%

Win Probability (After): 66.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:20 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 6 at SDSU 31) Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 32 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.97 68.4% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 68

Started Drive at: SDSU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - 1.18 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.4%

Win Probability (After): 66.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:46 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 5 at SDSU 32) Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Jesse Matthews - USU 0, SDSU 0 -1.68 65.9% -3.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 68

Started Drive at: SDSU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.40 - 0.28 = -1.68

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.9%

Win Probability (After): 62.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:24 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 5 at SDSU 32) Matt Araiza punt for 57 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 21 yds to the SANDIEGOST 47 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-15 Yards) to the UthSt 37 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.57 62.5% -1.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 63

Started Drive at: SDSU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.97 - -1.23 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.40)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.97)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.5%

Win Probability (After): 60.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 13:24 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 37) Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 2 yds to the UthSt 39 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.57 40.5% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 61

Started Drive at: USU 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.41 - 1.97 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.97)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.5%

Win Probability (After): 38.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:47 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 8 at USU 39) Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 6 yds to the UthSt 45 - USU 0, SDSU 0 0.28 39.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 55

Started Drive at: USU 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.71 - 1.42 = 0.28

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.42)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.1%

Win Probability (After): 39.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:21 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 2 at USU 45) Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the UthSt 46 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -1.27 39.4% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 54

Started Drive at: USU 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 1.70 = -1.27

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.70)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.4%

Win Probability (After): 37.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:48 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 1 at USU 46) Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 43 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 13 yds to the SDSt 24 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -1.38 35.5% -4.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 76

Started Drive at: USU 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.94 - 0.43 = -1.38

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.43)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.94)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.5%

Win Probability (After): 31.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 11:48 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 24) Jordon Brookshire run for 2 yds to the SDSt 26 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.46 69.5% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 74

Started Drive at: SDSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.47 - 0.93 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.93)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.5%

Win Probability (After): 68.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:17 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 8 at SDSU 26) Jordon Brookshire run for no gain to the SDSt 26 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -1.01 67.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: SDSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.59 - 0.42 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.42)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.2%

Win Probability (After): 66.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:36 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 8 at SDSU 26) Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Isaiah Richardson - USU 0, SDSU 0 -1.63 60.3% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: SDSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.07 - -0.44 = -1.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.44)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.3%

Win Probability (After): 61.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:17 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 8 at SDSU 26) Matt Araiza punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 33 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.07 56.5% 5.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 67

Started Drive at: SDSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.87 - -1.80 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.80)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.87)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.5%

Win Probability (After): 61.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:17 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 33) Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Derek Wright - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.76 38.6% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: USU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - 1.91 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.91)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.6%

Win Probability (After): 36.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:09 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 10 at USU 33) Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 3 yds to the UthSt 36 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.50 40.6% -5.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 64

Started Drive at: USU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - 1.08 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.6%

Win Probability (After): 35.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:51 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 7 at USU 36) Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Brandon Bowling - USU 0, SDSU 0 -1.57 37.8% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: USU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.98 - 0.59 = -1.57

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.59)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.8%

Win Probability (After): 34.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:34 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 7 at USU 36) Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 45 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 14 yds to the SDSt 33 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.90 33.4% 0.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 67

Started Drive at: USU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.92 - -1.02 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.92)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.4%

Win Probability (After): 33.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 9:34 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 33) Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 15 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST down - USU 0, SDSU 0 0.92 65.7% 2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 52

Started Drive at: SDSU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.78 - 1.86 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.7%

Win Probability (After): 67.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:01 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 48) Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Kaegun Williams for 2 yds to the 50 yard line - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.49 68.9% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 50

Started Drive at: SDSU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.23 - 2.72 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.9%

Win Probability (After): 66.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:29 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 8 at 50) Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 10 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST down - USU 0, SDSU 0 1.50 67.3% 2.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 40

Started Drive at: SDSU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.62 - 2.12 = 1.50

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.12)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.3%

Win Probability (After): 70.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:55 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at USU 40) Kaegun Williams run for 3 yds to the UthSt 37 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.49 72.3% -2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 37

Started Drive at: SDSU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.10 - 3.59 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.59)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.3%

Win Probability (After): 69.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:13 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 7 at USU 37) Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 16 yds to the UthSt 21 for a 1ST down - USU 0, SDSU 0 1.56 72.4% 2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 21

Started Drive at: SDSU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.68 - 3.13 = 1.56

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.4%

Win Probability (After): 74.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:31 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at USU 21) Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Elijah Kothe - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.57 74.9% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: SDSU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.12 - 4.69 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.69)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.9%

Win Probability (After): 74.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:23 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 10 at USU 21) Jordon Brookshire run for 7 yds to the UthSt 14 - USU 0, SDSU 0 0.22 74.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 14

Started Drive at: SDSU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 4.12 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.12)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.2%

Win Probability (After): 74.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:47 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 3 at USU 14) Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the UthSt 12 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.48 73.5% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 12

Started Drive at: SDSU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.86 - 4.34 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.5%

Win Probability (After): 73.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:06 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 1 at USU 12) Greg Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 13 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -4.25 70.3% -11.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 87

Started Drive at: SDSU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - 3.89 = -4.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.89)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.35)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.3%

Win Probability (After): 59.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 5:06 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 13) Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the UthSt 17 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.14 40.3% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 83

Started Drive at: USU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - 0.36 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.36)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.3%

Win Probability (After): 39.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:44 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 6 at USU 17) Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Justin McGriff - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.94 38.2% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 83

Started Drive at: USU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.71 - 0.23 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.23)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.2%

Win Probability (After): 36.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:36 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 6 at USU 17) Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Derek Wright - USU 0, SDSU 0 -1.41 35.6% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 83

Started Drive at: USU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.12 - -0.71 = -1.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.71)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.6%

Win Probability (After): 32.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:27 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 6 at USU 17) Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 48 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.58 32.1% -1.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 52

Started Drive at: USU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.70 - -2.12 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.12)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.70)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.1%

Win Probability (After): 30.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:27 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 48) Jordan Byrd run for 1 yd to the SDSt 49 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.63 69.7% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 51

Started Drive at: SDSU 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 2.70 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.70)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.7%

Win Probability (After): 68.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:09 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 9 at SDSU 49) Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 2 yds to the UthSt 49 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.66 67.8% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 49

Started Drive at: SDSU 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.41 - 2.07 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.8%

Win Probability (After): 65.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:42 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 7 at USU 49) Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Jesse Matthews - USU 0, SDSU 0 -1.93 61.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: SDSU 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.53 - 1.40 = -1.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.40)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.1%

Win Probability (After): 60.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:26 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 7 at USU 49) Matt Araiza punt for 49 yds for a touchback - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.24 55.5% 4.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 80

Started Drive at: SDSU 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.78 - -0.54 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.78)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.5%

Win Probability (After): 60.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 3:26 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 20) Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 41 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST down - USU 0, SDSU 0 2.82 39.6% 6.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 39

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.60 - 0.78 = 2.82

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.6%

Win Probability (After): 46.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:50 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at SDSU 39) Elelyon Noa run for 2 yds to the SDSt 37 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.63 46.1% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 37

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 3.61 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.61)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.1%

Win Probability (After): 45.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:18 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 8 at SDSU 37) Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Derek Wright - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.96 45.1% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 37

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 2.99 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.99)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.1%

Win Probability (After): 44.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:09 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 8 at SDSU 37) Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 10 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST down - USU 0, SDSU 0 2.34 43.7% 3.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 27

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.33 - 1.99 = 2.34

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.99)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.7%

Win Probability (After): 47.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:53 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at SDSU 27) Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds to the SDSt 24 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.40 47.2% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 24

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.93 - 4.34 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.2%

Win Probability (After): 46.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:21 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 7 at SDSU 24) Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Deven Thompkins - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.86 49.3% -4.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 3.98 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.3%

Win Probability (After): 44.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:14 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 7 at SDSU 24) Logan Bonner sacked by Keshawn Banks for a loss of 5 yards to the SDSt 29 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -1.73 46.7% -4.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 29

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.40 - 3.13 = -1.73

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.7%

Win Probability (After): 42.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:29 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 12 at SDSU 29) Connor Coles 46 yd FG MISSED - USU 0, SDSU 0 -3.04 42.6% -2.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 71

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.64 - 1.40 = -3.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.40)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.64)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.6%

Win Probability (After): 40.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 29) Jordon Brookshire sacked by Nick Heninger for a loss of 9 yards to the SDSt 20 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -1.91 60.1% -6.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 80

Started Drive at: SDSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.28 - 1.63 = -1.91

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.1%

Win Probability (After): 53.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 19 at SDSU 20) Greg Bell run for 9 yds to the SDSt 29 - USU 0, SDSU 0 0.07 58.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 71

Started Drive at: SDSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.21 - -0.28 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.7%

Win Probability (After): 58.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:26 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 10 at SDSU 29) Jordon Brookshire sacked by Byron Vaughns for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 26 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -1.74 62.1% -7.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 74

Started Drive at: SDSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.93 - -0.19 = -1.74

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.1%

Win Probability (After): 55.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:35 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 13 at SDSU 26) Matt Araiza punt for 27 yds, downed at the UthSt 47 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.72 59.3% -2.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 53

Started Drive at: SDSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.68 - -1.95 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.68)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.3%

Win Probability (After): 57.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:35 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 47) Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 47 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.63 44.4% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: USU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 2.66 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.66)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.4%

Win Probability (After): 43.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:59 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 10 at USU 47) Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Derek Wright - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.95 43.6% -3.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: USU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.11 - 2.05 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.6%

Win Probability (After): 40.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:51 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 10 at USU 47) Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McGriff for 9 yds to the SDSt 44 - USU 0, SDSU 0 0.35 39.9% 2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 44

Started Drive at: USU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 1.11 = 0.35

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.9%

Win Probability (After): 42.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:15 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 1 at SDSU 44) Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 5 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST down - USU 0, SDSU 0 2.11 40.1% 5.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 39

Started Drive at: USU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.64 - 1.54 = 2.11

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.1%

Win Probability (After): 45.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:46 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at SDSU 39) Calvin Tyler Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 40 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -1.02 44.5% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 40

Started Drive at: USU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.65 - 3.66 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.66)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.5%

Win Probability (After): 42.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:23 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 11 at SDSU 40) Logan Bonner pass complete to Calvin Tyler Jr. for 7 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Patrick McMorris) to the SDSt 18 for a 1ST down - USU 0, SDSU 0 2.19 42.3% 4.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 18

Started Drive at: USU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.84 - 2.67 = 2.19

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.65)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.3%

Win Probability (After): 46.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:02 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at SDSU 18) Calvin Tyler Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 19 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.96 48.0% -2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 19

Started Drive at: USU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.85 - 4.81 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.81)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.0%

Win Probability (After): 45.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:26 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 11 at SDSU 19) Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 2 yds to the SDSt 17 - USU 0, SDSU 0 -0.21 47.8% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 17

Started Drive at: USU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.62 - 3.84 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.84)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.8%

Win Probability (After): 45.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:51 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 9 at SDSU 17) Logan Bonner run for 12 yds to the SDSt 5 for a 1ST down - USU 0, SDSU 0 2.21 48.7% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 5

Started Drive at: USU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.84 - 3.63 = 2.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 0, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.7%

Win Probability (After): 51.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:06 ESPN team id 328 (1st & Goal at SDSU 5) Derek Wright 5 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick) - USU 7, SDSU 0 1.19 48.5% 11.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: USU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.81 = 1.19

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.81)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 7, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 59.7%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:06 ESPN team id 21 (Kickoff at SDSU 35) Elliott Nimrod kickoff for 56 yds , Jordan Byrd return for 27 yds to the SDSt 36 - USU 7, SDSU 0 0.92 43.4% 0.6%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 64

Started Drive at: SDSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.50 - 0.58 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.42)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 7, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.4%

Win Probability (After): 44.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:59 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 36) Greg Bell run for 8 yds to the SDSt 44 - USU 7, SDSU 0 0.70 45.3% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 56

Started Drive at: SDSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 1.48 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.52)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 7, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.3%

Win Probability (After): 45.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:21 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 2 at SDSU 44) Greg Bell run for 16 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST down - USU 7, SDSU 0 1.11 44.6% 6.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 40

Started Drive at: SDSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.10 - 1.99 = 1.11

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.01)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 7, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.6%

Win Probability (After): 51.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:49 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at USU 40) Greg Bell run for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 44 - USU 7, SDSU 0 -1.52 46.8% -3.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 44

Started Drive at: SDSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 3.00 = -1.52

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.00)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 7, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.8%

Win Probability (After): 43.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:11 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 14 at USU 44) Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 7 yds to the UthSt 37 - USU 7, SDSU 0 -0.11 42.1% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 37

Started Drive at: SDSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.65 - 1.76 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.24)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 7, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.1%

Win Probability (After): 42.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:42 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 7 at USU 37) Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete - USU 7, SDSU 0 -1.73 40.0% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 37

Started Drive at: SDSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 1.93 = -1.73

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.07)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 7, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.0%

Win Probability (After): 39.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:28 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 7 at USU 37) Matt Araiza 54 yd FG MISSED - USU 7, SDSU 0 -2.58 38.0% -3.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 63

Started Drive at: SDSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.33 - 0.25 = -2.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.75)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.33)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 7, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.0%

Win Probability (After): 35.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 6:28 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 37) Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 15 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST down - USU 7, SDSU 0 0.90 66.0% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 48

Started Drive at: USU 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.17 - 2.28 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.28)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 7, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.0%

Win Probability (After): 67.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:17 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at SDSU 48) Calvin Tyler Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 49 - USU 7, SDSU 0 -0.84 66.6% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 49

Started Drive at: USU 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.33 - 3.16 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.16)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 7, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.6%

Win Probability (After): 65.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:47 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 11 at SDSU 49) Logan Bonner pass incomplete - USU 7, SDSU 0 -0.52 64.9% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: USU 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.42 - 1.95 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.95)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 7, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.9%

Win Probability (After): 63.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:39 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 11 at SDSU 49) Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 16 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST down - USU 7, SDSU 0 2.55 63.0% 3.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 33

Started Drive at: USU 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 1.24 = 2.55

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.24)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 7, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.0%

Win Probability (After): 66.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:23 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at SDSU 33) Bonner, Logan pass incomplete to Wright, Derek, PENALTY SANDIEGOST roughing passer (Thomas, Cameron) 15 yards to the SANDIEGOST18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAHST. - USU 7, SDSU 0 0.91 66.9% 2.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 18

Started Drive at: USU 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.67 - 3.76 = 0.91

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.76)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 7, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.9%

Win Probability (After): 69.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:14 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at SDSU 18) Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 17 yds to the SDSt 1 for a 1ST down - USU 7, SDSU 0 1.70 69.7% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 1

Started Drive at: USU 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.38 - 4.68 = 1.70

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.68)

Score Difference (End): 7 (13.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 7, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.7%

Win Probability (After): 70.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:57 ESPN team id 328 (1st & Goal at SDSU 1) Calvin Tyler Jr. 1 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick) - USU 14, SDSU 0 0.64 72.0% 6.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: USU 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.36 = 0.64

Score Difference (Before): 7 (13.36)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.0%

Win Probability (After): 78.9%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:57 ESPN team id 21 (Kickoff at SDSU 35) Elliott Nimrod kickoff for 42 yds , Brady Anderson return for 9 yds to the SDSt 44 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Vai Kaho) to the SDSt 17 - USU 14, SDSU 0 -0.36 23.8% -0.8%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 83

Started Drive at: SDSU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.10 - 0.46 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-21.92)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.8%

Win Probability (After): 23.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:53 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 17) Jordon Brookshire pass complete to BJ Busbee for 10 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST down - USU 14, SDSU 0 0.55 23.0% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 73

Started Drive at: SDSU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.68 - 0.14 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.86)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.0%

Win Probability (After): 23.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:28 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 27) Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the SDSt 33 - USU 14, SDSU 0 0.30 23.2% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 67

Started Drive at: SDSU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - 0.49 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.51)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.2%

Win Probability (After): 23.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:04 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 4 at SDSU 33) Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 25 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST down - USU 14, SDSU 0 1.83 22.9% 1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 42

Started Drive at: SDSU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.55 - 0.72 = 1.83

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.28)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.9%

Win Probability (After): 24.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:24 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at USU 42) Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the UthSt 40 - USU 14, SDSU 0 -0.06 24.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 40

Started Drive at: SDSU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.37 - 2.44 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.56)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.3%

Win Probability (After): 24.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:55 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 8 at USU 40) Jordon Brookshire run for 10 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST down - USU 14, SDSU 0 1.06 24.5% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 30

Started Drive at: SDSU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.29 - 2.23 = 1.06

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.77)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.5%

Win Probability (After): 25.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:19 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at USU 30) Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 18 yds to the UthSt 12 for a 1ST down - USU 14, SDSU 0 1.68 25.3% 3.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 12

Started Drive at: SDSU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.85 - 3.17 = 1.68

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.83)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.3%

Win Probability (After): 28.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:02 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at USU 12) Timeout UTAH ST, clock 02:02 - USU 14, SDSU 0 0.00 28.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 12

Started Drive at: SDSU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.85 - 4.85 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.15)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.5%

Win Probability (After): 28.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:01 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at USU 12) Brookshire, Jordon pass incomplete to Kothe, Elijah, PENALTY UTAHST pass interference (Bond, Shaq) 7 yards to the UTAHST5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SANDIEGOST. - USU 14, SDSU 0 1.02 30.1% 2.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 5

Started Drive at: SDSU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.68 - 4.65 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.35)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-8.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.1%

Win Probability (After): 32.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:58 ESPN team id 21 (1st & Goal at USU 5) Jordon Brookshire sacked by AJ Vongphachanh for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 10 - USU 14, SDSU 0 -1.27 31.7% -2.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 10

Started Drive at: SDSU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.21 - 5.48 = -1.27

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-8.52)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.7%

Win Probability (After): 29.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:26 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & Goal at USU 10) Jordon Brookshire run for 4 yds to the UthSt 6 - USU 14, SDSU 0 -0.06 29.9% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 6

Started Drive at: SDSU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.93 - 3.99 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.01)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.9%

Win Probability (After): 27.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:08 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & Goal at USU 6) Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Mekhi Shaw - USU 14, SDSU 0 -1.28 30.0% -3.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: SDSU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 3.84 = -1.28

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.16)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.0%

Win Probability (After): 26.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:01 ESPN team id 21 (4th & Goal at USU 6) Matt Araiza 23 Yd Field Goal - USU 14, SDSU 3 0.43 26.7% 10.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: SDSU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.57 = 0.43

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.43)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.7%

Win Probability (After): 37.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:01 ESPN team id 328 (Kickoff at USU 35) Matt Araiza kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - USU 14, SDSU 3 0.00 75.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - 0.82 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.82)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.8%

Win Probability (After): 75.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:00 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 25) Elelyon Noa run for 11 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST down - USU 14, SDSU 3 0.33 75.8% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 64

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 0.80 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.80)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.8%

Win Probability (After): 76.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:44 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 36) Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 15 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST down - USU 14, SDSU 3 0.69 76.3% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 49

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 0.87 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.87)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.3%

Win Probability (After): 76.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:22 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at SDSU 49) Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 7 yds to the SDSt 42 - USU 14, SDSU 3 0.90 76.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 42

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - 0.91 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.91)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.5%

Win Probability (After): 76.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:16 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 3 at SDSU 42) Timeout UTAH ST, clock 00:16 - USU 14, SDSU 3 0.00 76.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 42

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - 1.81 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.81)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.6%

Win Probability (After): 76.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:15 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 3 at SDSU 42) Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 8 yds to the SDSt 34 for a 1ST down - USU 14, SDSU 3 0.82 75.6% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 34

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.96 - 1.14 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.14)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.6%

Win Probability (After): 76.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:07 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at SDSU 34) TEAM pass incomplete - USU 14, SDSU 3 0.41 76.2% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 1.42 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.42)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.2%

Win Probability (After): 76.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:05 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 10 at SDSU 34) Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Deven Thompkins - USU 14, SDSU 3 -0.09 76.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 1.44 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.44)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.2%

Win Probability (After): 75.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 10 at SDSU 34) Connor Coles 51 yd FG MISSED - USU 14, SDSU 3 -0.85 75.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 67

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.09 - 0.85 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.85)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.91)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 14, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.0%

Win Probability (After): 74.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 328 (Kickoff at USU 35) Matt Araiza kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - USU 14, SDSU 3 0.00 74.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.96 - 1.96 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.96)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.7%

Win Probability (After): 74.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:59 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 25) Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 9 yds to the UthSt 34 - USU 14, SDSU 3 0.76 74.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 2.11 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.11)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.6%

Win Probability (After): 74.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:40 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 1 at USU 34) Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 34 - USU 14, SDSU 3 -0.82 75.1% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 3.00 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.00)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.1%

Win Probability (After): 73.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:04 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 1 at USU 34) Logan Bonner pass complete to Carson Terrell for 4 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST down - USU 14, SDSU 3 0.73 74.4% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 62

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.94 - 2.20 = 0.73

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.20)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.4%

Win Probability (After): 75.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:40 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 38) Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 4 yds to the UthSt 42 - USU 14, SDSU 3 -0.18 75.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 58

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.76 - 2.94 = -0.18

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.94)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 14, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.8%

Win Probability (After): 75.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:09 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 6 at USU 42) Brandon Bowling 58 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick) - USU 21, SDSU 3 4.26 74.8% 10.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 99

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.74 = 4.26

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.74)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 21, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.8%

Win Probability (After): 84.8%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:09 ESPN team id 21 (Kickoff at SDSU 35) Elliott Nimrod kickoff for 45 yds , Kaegun Williams return for 5 yds to the SDSt 40 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the SDSt 15 - USU 21, SDSU 3 -0.40 12.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 85

Started Drive at: SDSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.04 - -0.64 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-26.02)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-19.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 21, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.4%

Win Probability (After): 12.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:56 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 15) Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 18 - USU 21, SDSU 3 -0.55 13.1% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 82

Started Drive at: SDSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.52 - -0.98 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.98)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-19.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 21, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.1%

Win Probability (After): 12.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:31 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 7 at SDSU 18) Jordon Brookshire sacked by Marcus Moore for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 16 - USU 21, SDSU 3 -0.93 11.0% -0.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 84

Started Drive at: SDSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.38 - -1.45 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-19.45)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-20.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 21, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.0%

Win Probability (After): 10.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:53 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 9 at SDSU 16) Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Greg Bell - USU 21, SDSU 3 -1.01 10.1% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 84

Started Drive at: SDSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.33 - -2.32 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-20.32)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-21.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 21, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.1%

Win Probability (After): 9.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:38 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 9 at SDSU 16) Team Safety - USU 23, SDSU 3 1.36 8.4% 59.8%

Play Type: Safety

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 99

Started Drive at: SDSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.00 - -3.36 = 1.36

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-21.36)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-20.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.4%

Win Probability (After): 68.2%

Away Score: 21 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 11:38 ESPN team id 328 (Kickoff at USU 20) Matt Araiza kickoff for 72 yds , Savon Scarver return for 21 yds to the UthSt 29 - USU 23, SDSU 3 0.33 94.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 71

Started Drive at: USU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.08 - 2.75 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): 20 (22.75)

Score Difference (End): 20 (23.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.6%

Win Probability (After): 94.8%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:31 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 29) Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 5 yds to the UthSt 34 - USU 23, SDSU 3 -0.05 94.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 66

Started Drive at: USU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.05 - 3.10 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): 20 (23.10)

Score Difference (End): 20 (23.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.8%

Win Probability (After): 94.6%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:08 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 5 at USU 34) Calvin Tyler Jr. run for no gain to the UthSt 34 - USU 23, SDSU 3 -0.87 96.0% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: USU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.21 - 3.08 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): 20 (23.08)

Score Difference (End): 20 (22.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.0%

Win Probability (After): 93.8%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:44 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 5 at USU 34) Bonner, Logan pass incomplete to Bowling, Brandon, PENALTY SANDIEGOST roughing passer (Shawcroft, Michael) 15 yards to the UTAHST49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAHST. - USU 23, SDSU 3 1.52 95.5% 0.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 51

Started Drive at: USU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.84 - 2.32 = 1.52

Score Difference (Before): 20 (22.32)

Score Difference (End): 20 (23.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.5%

Win Probability (After): 96.3%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:31 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 49) Tyler Jr., Calvin rush for 5 yards to the SANDIEGOST46, PENALTY UTAHST holding (Terrell, Carson) 10 yards to the UTAHST39, NO PLAY. - USU 23, SDSU 3 -0.64 96.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 61

Started Drive at: USU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 3.92 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 20 (23.92)

Score Difference (End): 20 (23.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.4%

Win Probability (After): 96.1%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:09 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 20 at USU 39) Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Deven Thompkins - USU 23, SDSU 3 -0.55 95.9% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: USU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.69 - 3.24 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): 20 (23.24)

Score Difference (End): 20 (22.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.9%

Win Probability (After): 96.0%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:55 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 20 at USU 39) Logan Bonner pass intercepted Patrick McMorris return for 25 yds to the SANDIEGOST 36 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Keshawn Banks) to the UthSt 40 - USU 23, SDSU 3 -5.23 95.6% -5.1%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 40

Started Drive at: USU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.53 - 2.69 = -5.23

Score Difference (Before): 20 (22.69)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-17.47)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.5%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:55 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at USU 40) Greg Bell run for 14 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST down - USU 23, SDSU 3 0.92 9.7% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 26

Started Drive at: USU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.58 - 2.66 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-17.34)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-16.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.7%

Win Probability (After): 10.8%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:26 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at USU 26) Jordon Brookshire run for 1 yd to the UthSt 25 - USU 23, SDSU 3 -0.71 11.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 25

Started Drive at: USU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.94 - 3.65 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-16.35)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-17.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.2%

Win Probability (After): 10.3%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:42 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 9 at USU 25) Chance Bell run for 7 yds to the UthSt 18 - USU 23, SDSU 3 0.90 9.3% 2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 18

Started Drive at: USU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.81 - 2.90 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-17.10)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-16.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.3%

Win Probability (After): 11.8%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:08 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 2 at USU 18) Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to BJ Busbee - USU 23, SDSU 3 -1.57 10.3% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: USU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.15 - 3.73 = -1.57

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-16.27)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-17.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.3%

Win Probability (After): 9.2%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:01 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 2 at USU 18) Brookshire, Jordon pass incomplete to Kothe, Elijah, PENALTY UTAHST pass interference (Lampkin, Cam) 15 yards to the UTAHST3, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SANDIEGOST. - USU 23, SDSU 3 3.78 8.8% 4.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 3

Started Drive at: USU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.98 - 2.20 = 3.78

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-17.80)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-14.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.8%

Win Probability (After): 13.1%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:58 ESPN team id 21 (1st & Goal at USU 3) Chance Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 4 - USU 23, SDSU 3 -0.62 12.9% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 4

Started Drive at: USU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.36 - 5.98 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-14.02)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-14.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.9%

Win Probability (After): 12.5%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:24 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & Goal at USU 4) Brookshire, Jordon pass incomplete to Dedeaux, Ethan, PENALTY SANDIEGOST pass interference (Matthews, Jesse) 15 yards to the UTAHST19, NO PLAY. - USU 23, SDSU 3 -2.63 11.8% -2.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 19

Started Drive at: USU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.72 - 5.34 = -2.63

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-14.66)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-17.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.8%

Win Probability (After): 9.0%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:13 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & Goal at USU 19) Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to BJ Busbee - USU 23, SDSU 3 -0.96 8.4% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: USU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.86 - 2.82 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-17.18)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-18.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.4%

Win Probability (After): 7.3%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:09 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & Goal at USU 19) Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete - USU 23, SDSU 3 -0.96 7.0% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: USU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - 1.87 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-18.13)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-19.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.0%

Win Probability (After): 5.5%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:58 ESPN team id 21 (4th & Goal at USU 19) Matt Araiza 36 Yd Field Goal - USU 23, SDSU 6 0.85 7.8% 2.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: USU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.15 = 0.85

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-17.85)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.8%

Win Probability (After): 10.5%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 3 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:58 ESPN team id 328 (Kickoff at USU 35) Matt Araiza kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - USU 23, SDSU 6 0.00 95.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.46 - 2.46 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 17 (19.46)

Score Difference (End): 17 (19.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.1%

Win Probability (After): 95.1%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:57 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 25) Elelyon Noa run for 2 yds to the UthSt 27 - USU 23, SDSU 6 -0.43 95.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 2.46 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): 17 (19.46)

Score Difference (End): 17 (19.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.1%

Win Probability (After): 94.7%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:36 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 8 at USU 27) Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 4 yds to the UthSt 31 - USU 23, SDSU 6 -0.23 95.0% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 69

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 2.06 = -0.23

Score Difference (Before): 17 (19.06)

Score Difference (End): 17 (18.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.0%

Win Probability (After): 94.3%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:04 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 4 at USU 31) Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for no gain to the UthSt 31 - USU 23, SDSU 6 -1.69 95.0% -4.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.14 - 1.83 = -1.69

Score Difference (Before): 17 (18.83)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.0%

Win Probability (After): 90.5%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:19 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 4 at USU 31) Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 33 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 35 Jordan Byrd fumbled, recovered by UthSt Jaden Smith - USU 23, SDSU 6 4.32 93.9% 1.8%

Play Type: Punt Team Fumble Recovery

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 35

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.42 - 0.11 = 4.32

Score Difference (Before): 17 (17.11)

Score Difference (End): 17 (21.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.9%

Win Probability (After): 95.8%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 5:19 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at SDSU 35) Logan Bonner sacked by Jonah Tavai for a loss of 9 yards to the SDSt 44 - USU 23, SDSU 6 -1.54 96.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 44

Started Drive at: SDSU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.88 - 4.42 = -1.54

Score Difference (Before): 17 (21.42)

Score Difference (End): 17 (19.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, -9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.1%

Win Probability (After): 95.5%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:34 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 19 at SDSU 44) Logan Bonner pass complete to Elelyon Noa for 8 yds to the SDSt 36 - USU 23, SDSU 6 -0.48 95.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 36

Started Drive at: SDSU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 2.91 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 17 (19.91)

Score Difference (End): 17 (19.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.5%

Win Probability (After): 95.3%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:48 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 11 at SDSU 36) Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 12 yds to the SDSt 24 for a 1ST down - USU 23, SDSU 6 2.41 96.1% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 24

Started Drive at: SDSU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.87 - 2.47 = 2.41

Score Difference (Before): 17 (19.47)

Score Difference (End): 17 (21.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.1%

Win Probability (After): 96.6%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:26 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at SDSU 24) Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 9 yds to the SDSt 15 - USU 23, SDSU 6 0.82 97.1% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 15

Started Drive at: SDSU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.69 - 4.88 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): 17 (21.88)

Score Difference (End): 17 (22.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.1%

Win Probability (After): 97.5%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:52 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 1 at SDSU 15) Deven Thompkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 18 - USU 23, SDSU 6 -1.22 97.3% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 18

Started Drive at: SDSU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 5.71 = -1.22

Score Difference (Before): 17 (22.71)

Score Difference (End): 17 (21.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 23, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.3%

Win Probability (After): 96.9%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:54 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 4 at SDSU 18) Brandon Bowling 18 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles PAT blocked) - USU 29, SDSU 6 2.45 97.2% 1.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 99

Started Drive at: SDSU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.92 - 4.47 = 2.45

Score Difference (Before): 17 (21.47)

Score Difference (End): 23 (23.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 29, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 23 (29) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:54 ESPN team id 21 (Kickoff at SDSU 35) Elliott Nimrod kickoff for 60 yds , Jordan Byrd return for 17 yds to the SDSt 22 - USU 29, SDSU 6 -0.08 1.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 78

Started Drive at: SDSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.48 - -0.40 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): -23 (-23.40)

Score Difference (End): -23 (-23.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 29, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.6%

Win Probability (After): 1.6%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:39 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 22) Greg Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 20 Greg Bell fumbled, recovered by UthSt Marcus Moore - USU 29, SDSU 6 -4.66 1.6% -0.6%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 20

Started Drive at: SDSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -5.14 - -0.48 = -4.66

Score Difference (Before): -23 (-23.48)

Score Difference (End): 23 (28.14)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 29, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.6%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:39 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at SDSU 20) Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 7 yds to the SDSt 13 - USU 29, SDSU 6 0.36 99.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 13

Started Drive at: SDSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.51 - 5.15 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): 23 (28.15)

Score Difference (End): 23 (28.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 29, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.0%

Win Probability (After): 98.9%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:58 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 3 at SDSU 13) Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 2 yds to the SDSt 11 - USU 29, SDSU 6 -0.04 99.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 11

Started Drive at: SDSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.45 - 5.49 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): 23 (28.49)

Score Difference (End): 23 (28.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 29, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.0%

Win Probability (After): 98.9%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 1 at SDSU 11) Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 4 yds to the SDSt 7 for a 1ST down - USU 29, SDSU 6 0.58 99.5% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 7

Started Drive at: SDSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.88 - 5.30 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): 23 (28.30)

Score Difference (End): 23 (28.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 29, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 328 (1st & Goal at SDSU 7) Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 1 yd to the SDSt 6 - USU 29, SDSU 6 -0.48 99.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 6

Started Drive at: SDSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.29 - 5.77 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 23 (28.77)

Score Difference (End): 23 (28.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 29, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:32 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & Goal at SDSU 6) Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Josh Sterzer - USU 29, SDSU 6 -0.86 99.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: SDSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.37 - 5.22 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 23 (28.22)

Score Difference (End): 23 (27.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 29, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:24 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & Goal at SDSU 6) Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 3 yds to the SDSt 3 - USU 29, SDSU 6 -1.20 99.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 3

Started Drive at: SDSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.13 - 4.33 = -1.20

Score Difference (Before): 23 (27.33)

Score Difference (End): 23 (26.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 29, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:40 ESPN team id 328 (4th & Goal at SDSU 3) Connor Coles 20 Yd Field Goal - USU 32, SDSU 6 -0.10 99.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 3

Started Drive at: SDSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.10 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): 23 (26.10)

Score Difference (End): 26 (26.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 32, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 29 (32) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 13:40 ESPN team id 21 (Kickoff at SDSU 35) Elliott Nimrod kickoff for 39 yds , Sefo Mailangi return for 8 yds to the SDSt 34 - USU 32, SDSU 6 0.96 1.0% 0.3%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 66

Started Drive at: SDSU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - -0.74 = 0.96

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-26.74)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-25.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 32, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 32 (32) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:32 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 34) Jordon Brookshire run for no gain to the SDSt 34 - USU 32, SDSU 6 -0.69 1.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: SDSU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.48 - 0.20 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-25.80)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-26.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 32, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.9%

Away Score: 32 (32) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:04 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 10 at SDSU 34) Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Jesse Matthews - USU 32, SDSU 6 -0.78 0.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: SDSU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.27 - -0.49 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-26.49)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-27.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 32, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.9%

Win Probability (After): 0.9%

Away Score: 32 (32) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:53 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 10 at SDSU 34) Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the SDSt 40 - USU 32, SDSU 6 -0.76 0.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 60

Started Drive at: SDSU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.92 - -1.17 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-27.17)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-27.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 32, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 32 (32) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:22 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 4 at SDSU 40) Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete - USU 32, SDSU 6 -2.31 0.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 40

Started Drive at: SDSU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.13 - -1.82 = -2.31

Score Difference (Before): -26 (-27.82)

Score Difference (End): 26 (30.13)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 32, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 32 (32) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 12:22 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at SDSU 40) Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McGriff for 24 yds to the SDSt 16 for a 1ST down - USU 32, SDSU 6 1.28 99.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 16

Started Drive at: SDSU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.43 - 4.15 = 1.28

Score Difference (Before): 26 (30.15)

Score Difference (End): 26 (31.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 32, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 32 (32) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:40 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at SDSU 16) Elelyon Noa run for 1 yd to the SDSt 15 - USU 32, SDSU 6 -0.51 99.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 15

Started Drive at: SDSU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.89 - 5.40 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 26 (31.40)

Score Difference (End): 26 (30.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 32, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 32 (32) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:07 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 9 at SDSU 15) Logan Bonner pass incomplete to Carson Terrell - USU 32, SDSU 6 -0.78 99.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: SDSU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.07 - 4.85 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): 26 (30.85)

Score Difference (End): 26 (30.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 32, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 32 (32) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:01 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 9 at SDSU 15) Elelyon Noa run for 6 yds to the SDSt 9 - USU 32, SDSU 6 -0.96 99.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 9

Started Drive at: SDSU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.12 - 4.09 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): 26 (30.09)

Score Difference (End): 26 (29.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 32, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 32 (32) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:21 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 3 at SDSU 9) Justin McGriff 9 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick) - USU 39, SDSU 6 3.90 99.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: SDSU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.10 = 3.90

Score Difference (Before): 26 (29.10)

Score Difference (End): 33 (33.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 39, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 32 (39) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:21 ESPN team id 21 (Kickoff at SDSU 35) Elliott Nimrod kickoff for 60 yds , Jordan Byrd return for 15 yds to the SDSt 20 - USU 39, SDSU 6 -0.12 0.4% -0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80

Started Drive at: SDSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.46 - -0.33 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-33.33)

Score Difference (End): -33 (-33.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 39, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.4%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:14 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 20) Chance Bell run for 27 yds to the SDSt 47 for a 1ST down - USU 39, SDSU 6 1.71 0.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 53

Started Drive at: SDSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.25 - -0.46 = 1.71

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-33.46)

Score Difference (End): -33 (-31.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 39, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.4%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:44 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 47) Chance Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 48 - USU 39, SDSU 6 -0.37 0.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 52

Started Drive at: SDSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - 1.15 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-31.85)

Score Difference (End): -33 (-32.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 39, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.4%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:11 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 9 at SDSU 48) Jalen Mayden pass complete to BJ Busbee for 11 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST down - USU 39, SDSU 6 1.39 0.2% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 41

Started Drive at: SDSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - 0.63 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-32.37)

Score Difference (End): -33 (-30.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 39, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.4%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:43 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at USU 41) Jalen Mayden pass complete to BJ Busbee for 13 yds to the UthSt 28 for a 1ST down - USU 39, SDSU 6 1.01 0.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 28

Started Drive at: SDSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.86 - 1.86 = 1.01

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-31.14)

Score Difference (End): -33 (-30.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 39, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.4%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:16 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at USU 28) Jalen Mayden pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the UthSt 22 - USU 39, SDSU 6 0.51 0.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 22

Started Drive at: SDSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.37 - 2.85 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-30.15)

Score Difference (End): -33 (-29.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 39, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.4%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:42 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 4 at USU 22) Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the UthSt 19 - USU 39, SDSU 6 -0.04 0.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 19

Started Drive at: SDSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 3.38 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-29.62)

Score Difference (End): -33 (-29.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 39, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:03 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 1 at USU 19) Jalen Mayden run for 14 yds to the UthSt 5 for a 1ST down - USU 39, SDSU 6 1.86 0.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 5

Started Drive at: SDSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.34 - 3.48 = 1.86

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-29.52)

Score Difference (End): -33 (-27.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 39, SDSU 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:22 ESPN team id 21 (1st & Goal at USU 5) Jesse Matthews 5 Yd pass from Jalen Mayden (Matt Araiza Kick) - USU 39, SDSU 13 1.59 0.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: SDSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.41 = 1.59

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-27.59)

Score Difference (End): -26 (-26.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 39, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 6 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:22 ESPN team id 328 (Kickoff at USU 35) Matt Araiza on-side kick recovered by UTAH ST at the SDSt 43 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 38 - USU 39, SDSU 13 1.78 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 38

Started Drive at: SDSU 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - 1.64 = 1.78

Score Difference (Before): 26 (18.51)

Score Difference (End): 26 (29.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 39, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:18 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at SDSU 38) Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 5 yds to the SDSt 33 - USU 39, SDSU 13 0.06 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 33

Started Drive at: SDSU 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.49 - 3.42 = 0.06

Score Difference (Before): 26 (29.42)

Score Difference (End): 26 (29.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 39, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:37 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 5 at SDSU 33) Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the SDSt 30 - USU 39, SDSU 13 0.39 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 30

Started Drive at: SDSU 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.51 - 3.12 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): 26 (29.12)

Score Difference (End): 26 (29.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 39, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:51 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 2 at SDSU 30) Timeout UTAH ST, clock 04:51 - USU 39, SDSU 13 0.00 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: SDSU 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.51 - 3.51 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 26 (29.51)

Score Difference (End): 26 (29.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 39, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:50 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 2 at SDSU 30) Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST down - USU 39, SDSU 13 0.88 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 27

Started Drive at: SDSU 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.82 - 2.94 = 0.88

Score Difference (Before): 26 (28.94)

Score Difference (End): 26 (29.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 39, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 39 (39) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:58 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at SDSU 27) Jordan Nathan 0 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick) - USU 46, SDSU 13 3.54 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: SDSU 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.46 = 3.54

Score Difference (Before): 26 (29.46)

Score Difference (End): 33 (33.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 46, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 39 (46) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:58 ESPN team id 21 (Kickoff at SDSU 35) Elliott Nimrod kickoff for 40 yds , Elijah Kothe return for 7 yds to the SDSt 32 - USU 46, SDSU 13 0.29 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 68

Started Drive at: SDSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.59 - 0.29 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-32.71)

Score Difference (End): -33 (-32.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 46, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 46 (46) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:54 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 32) Jaylon Armstead run for 4 yds to the SDSt 36 - USU 46, SDSU 13 0.08 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 64

Started Drive at: SDSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 0.56 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-32.44)

Score Difference (End): -33 (-32.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 46, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 46 (46) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:23 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 6 at SDSU 36) Jalen Mayden pass complete to Darius De Los Reyes for 15 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST down - USU 46, SDSU 13 1.14 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 49

Started Drive at: SDSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.69 - 0.56 = 1.14

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-32.44)

Score Difference (End): -33 (-31.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 46, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 46 (46) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:57 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at USU 49) Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd to the UthSt 48 - USU 46, SDSU 13 -0.40 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 48

Started Drive at: SDSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 1.52 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-31.48)

Score Difference (End): -33 (-31.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 46, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 46 (46) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:17 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 9 at USU 48) Jaylon Armstead run for 4 yds to the UthSt 44 - USU 46, SDSU 13 0.05 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 44

Started Drive at: SDSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.11 - 1.06 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-31.94)

Score Difference (End): -33 (-31.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 46, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 46 (46) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:42 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 5 at USU 44) Jaylon Armstead run for 3 yds to the UthSt 41 - USU 46, SDSU 13 -0.35 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 41

Started Drive at: SDSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 0.90 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-32.10)

Score Difference (End): -33 (-32.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 46, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 46 (46) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:09 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 2 at USU 41) Jalen Mayden run for 33 yds to the UthSt 8 for a 1ST down - USU 46, SDSU 13 4.37 0.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 8

Started Drive at: SDSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.83 - 0.46 = 4.37

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-32.54)

Score Difference (End): -33 (-28.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 46, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 46 (46) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:59 ESPN team id 21 (1st & Goal at USU 8) Jalen Mayden pass incomplete - USU 46, SDSU 13 -0.62 0.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8

Started Drive at: SDSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.13 - 4.74 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-28.26)

Score Difference (End): -33 (-28.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 46, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 46 (46) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:54 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & Goal at USU 8) Jalen Mayden run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 11 Jalen Mayden fumbled, recovered by SDSt Jalen Mayden - USU 46, SDSU 13 -1.39 0.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 11

Started Drive at: SDSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.72 - 4.10 = -1.39

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-28.90)

Score Difference (End): -33 (-30.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 46, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 46 (46) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:38 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & Goal at USU 11) Jaylon Armstead run for 2 yds to the UthSt 9 - USU 46, SDSU 13 -0.86 0.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 9

Started Drive at: SDSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 2.73 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-30.27)

Score Difference (End): -33 (-31.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USU 46, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 46 (46) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 21 (4th & Goal at USU 9) Jalen Mayden sacked by Justin Rice for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 17 - USU 46, SDSU 13 -2.03 0.4% 99.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 83

Started Drive at: SDSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.24 - 1.80 = -2.03

Score Difference (Before): -33 (-31.20)

Score Difference (End): 33 (33.24)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USU 46, SDSU 13

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 46 (46) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link