San Diego State 20 @ Air Force 14

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 3.99 | Odds: AFA -3, O/U 39.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 21 ESPN team id 2005
Total Plays 6272
Total EPA -2.27-3.03
  Offensive EPA -3.86-4.16
  Special Teams EPA 4.00-0.86
  Penalty EPA -3.161.99
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 0.750.00
Production ESPN team id 21 ESPN team id 2005
Scrimmage Plays 5263
  Yards 241273
  Yards/Play 4.634.33
  EPA -3.86-4.16
  EPA/Play -0.07-0.07
Passes 14 (27%)16 (25%)
  Yards 7271
  Yards/Play 5.144.44
  EPA -1.61-7.14
  EPA/Play -0.12-0.45
Rushes 38 (73%)47 (75%)
  Yards 180204
  Yards/Play 4.744.34
  EPA -2.252.98
  EPA/Play -0.060.06
Rushing ESPN team id 21 ESPN team id 2005
Scrimmage Plays 5263
Rushes 38 (73%)47 (75%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 5 (13%)3 (6%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 5 (100%)3 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 3 (8%)2 (4%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 13 (34%)17 (36%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 20 (53%)20 (43%)
OL Line Yards 95.1110.5
  Per Carry 2.502.35
Highlight Yards 39.533.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 1.981.68
Explosiveness ESPN team id 21 ESPN team id 2005
Total Plays 6272
Scrimmage Plays 5263
Explosive Plays 2 (4%)6 (10%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 0 (0%)2 (12%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 2 (5%)4 (9%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -8.55-23.76
  EPA/Play -0.17-0.42
  When Passing -1.61-15.19
    EPA/Play -0.12-0.95
  When Rushing -6.94-8.56
    EPA/Play -0.19-0.20
Situational ESPN team id 21 ESPN team id 2005
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 23 (44%)21 (33%)
  When Passing 6 (43%)4 (25%)
  When Rushing 17 (45%)17 (36%)
  On Standard Downs 16 (42%)15 (39%)
  On Passing Downs 7 (50%)6 (24%)
  On Early Downs 17 (45%)11 (26%)
  On Late Downs 6 (43%)10 (50%)
  During "Middle 8" 5 (71%)2 (22%)
Early Downs 3843
  First Downs Created 5 (13%)7 (16%)
  EPA -2.72-9.51
  EPA/Play -0.07-0.22
  Passes 11 (29%)9 (21%)
  Rushes 27 (71%)34 (79%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 5 (45%)1 (11%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 12 (44%)10 (29%)
"Middle 8" Plays 79
  EPA 4.83-3.38
  EPA/play 0.69-0.38
  Passes 2 (29%)3 (33%)
  Rushes 5 (71%)6 (67%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 2 (100%)1 (33%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 3 (60%)1 (17%)
Drives ESPN team id 21 ESPN team id 2005
Total 1010
Avg Starting Field Position Own 41Own 22
Plays/Drive 6.988.62
Yards/Drive 29.2741.57
Available Yards % 50%53%
Defensive ESPN team id 21 ESPN team id 2005
Scrimmage Plays 6352
Stop Rate 49%38%
Havoc Plays Created 4 (6%)3 (6%)
  Passing 3 (19%)1 (7%)
  Rushing 1 (2%)2 (5%)
TFLs Generated 13
  Passing 11
  Rushing 02
Sacks Generated 1 (6%)1 (7%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 10
Fumbles Forced 20
Turnovers ESPN team id 21 ESPN team id 2005
Turnovers 03
  Fumbles 03
  Fumbles Lost 02
  Fumbles Recovered 01
  Interceptions 01
Turnover Margin 3-3
Expected Turnovers 1.51.7
Expected Turnover Margin 0.2-0.2
Turnover Luck (pts) 13.9-13.9
Special Teams ESPN team id 21 ESPN team id 2005
Total Plays 10 9
Total EPA 4 -0.86
  Field Goal EPA 2.5 0
  Punting EPA 1.31 -0.86
  Kickoff Return EPA 0.2 0

San Diego State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Lucas Johnson 11/13, 72 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 35.7 xQBR 5.14 -0.12 -1.61 43% -2.0%
Rush attempts
Chance Bell 8 carries, 50 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.25 0.40 3.20 38% 7.0%
Jordan Byrd 6 carries, 32 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.33 0.29 1.76 83% 1.0%
Lucas Johnson 2 carries, 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 -0.50 -1.00 50% -1.0%
Kaegun Williams 10 carries, 42 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.20 -0.21 -2.14 40% 4.0%
Greg Bell 10 carries, 46 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.60 -0.30 -2.98 40% -9.0%
Pass targets
Elijah Kothe 3 catches (3 targets), 25 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.33 0.75 2.25 100% 3.0%
Jordan Byrd 1 catch (1 target), 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 20.00 1.56 1.56 100% 3.0%
Tyrell Shavers 1 catch (2 targets), 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 -0.04 -0.09 50% 0.0%
BJ Busbee 1 catch (1 target), 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.19 -0.19 0% 0.0%
Daniel Bellinger 1 catch (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.98 -0.98 0% -2.0%
Jesse Matthews 4 catches (5 targets), 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.50 -0.52 -2.60 20% -4.0%

Air Force [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Warren Bryan 3/7, 58 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 77.8 xQBR 7.25 0.67 5.37 38% 12.0%
Haaziq Daniels 2/8, 13 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 0 Scks, 13.1 xQBR 1.62 -1.56 -12.52 12% -16.0%
Rush attempts
Dane Kinamon 3 carries, 13 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.33 1.05 3.15 33% 24.0%
Omar Fattah 8 carries, 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.75 0.28 2.26 38% 3.0%
Haaziq Daniels 9 carries, 54 yds, 0 TD, 2 Fum (1 lost) 6.00 0.22 2.02 44% -1.0%
Zachary Larrier 1 carry, 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.00 1.12 1.12 100% 1.0%
Warren Bryan 6 carries, 26 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.33 0.17 1.03 33% -4.0%
Brandon Lewis 3 carries, 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.11 -0.34 33% 0.0%
Brad Roberts 7 carries, 27 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.86 -0.08 -0.57 43% -1.0%
DeAndre Hughes 1 carry, 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -1.02 -1.02 0% -3.0%
Micah Davis 5 carries, 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.38 -1.90 20% -4.0%
Emmanuel Michel 4 carries, 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.75 -0.69 -2.75 25% -3.0%
Pass targets
Dalton King 1 catch (1 target), 13 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.00 4.96 4.96 100% 13.0%
Dane Kinamon 1 catch (1 target), 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.00 3.09 3.09 100% 6.0%
Jake Spiewak 1 catch (3 targets), 31 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 31.00 -0.12 -0.37 33% -3.0%
Caden Blum 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.80 -0.80 0% -2.0%
Brandon Lewis 1 catch (4 targets), 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.00 -0.26 -1.05 25% -1.0%
Micah Davis 0 catches (3 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.01 -3.04 0% -6.0%
DeAndre Hughes 1 catch (1 target), 2 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 2.00 -4.33 -4.33 0% -3.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q3 1:07 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & 4 at SDSU 13) Dalton King 13 Yd pass from Warren Bryan (Matthew Dapore Kick) - SDSU 20, AFA 7 4.96 2.4% 13.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.04 = 4.96

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-17.96)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.4%

Win Probability (After): 15.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 14:08 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 9 at AFA 26) Haaziq Daniels pass intercepted - SDSU 0, AFA 0 -4.42 51.2% -4.7%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 9

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.98 - -0.56 = -4.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.56)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.98)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SDSU 0, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.2%

Win Probability (After): 46.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:21 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 7 at AFA 48) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to DeAndre Hughes for 2 yds DeAndre Hughes fumbled, forced by Trenton Thompson, recovered by SDSt Noah Avinger - SDSU 10, AFA 0 -4.33 28.0% -2.8%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 46

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.16 - 1.17 = -4.33

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.83)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.16)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SDSU 10, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.0%

Win Probability (After): 25.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:59 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & Goal at SDSU 3) Dane Kinamon run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - SDSU 20, AFA 14 3.60 5.6% 24.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.40 = 3.60

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-9.60)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 91 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 30.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:32 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 13 at SDSU 21) Warren Bryan pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 14 yds to the SDSt 7 for a 1ST down - SDSU 20, AFA 7 3.09 10.9% 6.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 7

Started Drive at: AFA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.54 - 2.45 = 3.09

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-10.55)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-7.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.9%

Win Probability (After): 17.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:27 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & 1 at AFA 44) Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 42 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 2.95 45.7% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 42

Started Drive at: AFA 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 0.16 = 2.95

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.84)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.11)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.7%

Win Probability (After): 46.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 12:26 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & 1 at AFA 44) Omar Fattah run for 8 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST down - SDSU 3, AFA 0 2.78 47.1% 4.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 48

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - -0.03 = 2.78

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.03)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.1%

Win Probability (After): 51.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 14:08 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & Goal at AFA 1) Kaegun Williams run for 4 yds to the AFA 5 - SDSU 0, AFA 0 -2.72 55.7% -3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 5

Started Drive at: AFA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.66 - 5.38 = -2.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.38)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 0, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.7%

Win Probability (After): 52.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 2 at AFA 35) Chance Bell run for 32 yds to the AFA 3 for a 1ST down - SDSU 13, AFA 0 2.63 85.6% 4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 3

Started Drive at: SDSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.98 - 3.35 = 2.63

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.35)

Score Difference (End): 13 (18.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 13, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.6%

Win Probability (After): 89.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:25 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 4 at SDSU 7) Matt Araiza punt for 81 yds - SDSU 3, AFA 0 2.49 50.4% 4.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 88

Started Drive at: SDSU 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - -2.52 = 2.49

Score Difference (Before): 3 (0.48)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.97)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.4%

Win Probability (After): 54.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 3:59 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & Goal at SDSU 3) Dane Kinamon run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - SDSU 20, AFA 14 3.60 5.6% 24.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.40 = 3.60

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-9.60)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 91 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 30.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:07 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & 4 at SDSU 13) Dalton King 13 Yd pass from Warren Bryan (Matthew Dapore Kick) - SDSU 20, AFA 7 4.96 2.4% 13.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.04 = 4.96

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-17.96)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.4%

Win Probability (After): 15.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 8:42 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & Goal at AFA 1) Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) - SDSU 10, AFA 0 1.25 63.2% 9.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.75 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.75)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 10, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.2%

Win Probability (After): 73.1%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:59 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 6 at SDSU 29) Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 32 - SDSU 20, AFA 14 -1.13 86.9% -6.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 68

Started Drive at: SDSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.00 - 0.13 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.13)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.9%

Win Probability (After): 80.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:18 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 3 at SDSU 32) Matt Araiza punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Jake Spiewak at the AFA 13 - SDSU 20, AFA 14 0.03 86.6% -6.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 87

Started Drive at: SDSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.41 - -0.44 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): 6 (5.56)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.59)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.6%

Win Probability (After): 80.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:32 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 13 at SDSU 21) Warren Bryan pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 14 yds to the SDSt 7 for a 1ST down - SDSU 20, AFA 7 3.09 10.9% 6.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 7

Started Drive at: AFA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.54 - 2.45 = 3.09

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-10.55)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-7.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.9%

Win Probability (After): 17.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:18 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 10 at AFA 13) Warren Bryan run for 3 yds to the AFA 16 - SDSU 20, AFA 14 -0.68 15.8% -5.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 84

Started Drive at: AFA 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.01 - -0.33 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.33)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-7.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.8%

Win Probability (After): 10.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:08 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 9 at AFA 26) Haaziq Daniels pass intercepted - SDSU 0, AFA 0 -4.42 51.2% -4.7%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 9

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.98 - -0.56 = -4.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.56)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.98)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SDSU 0, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.2%

Win Probability (After): 46.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:10 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 2 at SDSU 48) Matt Araiza punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 10 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.13 59.1% -4.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 90

Started Drive at: SDSU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.10 - 0.23 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.23)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.10)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.1%

Win Probability (After): 54.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:54 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 15 at AFA 34) Matt Araiza 51 yd FG GOOD - SDSU 13, AFA 0 2.35 74.7% 4.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 65

Started Drive at: AFA 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.65 = 2.35

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.65)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 13, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.7%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 10 (13) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 12:26 ESPN team id 21 (4th & Goal at AFA 5) Matt Araiza 22 yd FG GOOD - SDSU 3, AFA 0 0.14 53.5% -0.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 65

Started Drive at: AFA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.86 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.86)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.5%

Win Probability (After): 52.9%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 8:42 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & Goal at AFA 1) Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) - SDSU 10, AFA 0 1.25 63.2% 9.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.75 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.75)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 10, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.2%

Win Probability (After): 73.1%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:54 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 15 at AFA 34) Matt Araiza 51 yd FG GOOD - SDSU 13, AFA 0 2.35 74.7% 4.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 65

Started Drive at: AFA 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.65 = 2.35

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.65)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 13, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.7%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 10 (13) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 11:05 ESPN team id 21 (1st & Goal at AFA 3) Chance Bell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) - SDSU 20, AFA 0 0.71 90.6% 2.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: SDSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.29 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 13 (19.29)

Score Difference (End): 20 (20.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.6%

Win Probability (After): 93.0%

Away Score: 13 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:07 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & 4 at SDSU 13) Dalton King 13 Yd pass from Warren Bryan (Matthew Dapore Kick) - SDSU 20, AFA 7 4.96 2.4% 13.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.04 = 4.96

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-17.96)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.4%

Win Probability (After): 15.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 3:59 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & Goal at SDSU 3) Dane Kinamon run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - SDSU 20, AFA 14 3.60 5.6% 24.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.40 = 3.60

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-9.60)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 91 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 30.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2005 (Kickoff at AFA 35) Matt Araiza kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - SDSU 0, AFA 0 0.00 53.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 0, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.6%

Win Probability (After): 53.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 25) Micah Davis run for 1 yd to the AFA 26 - SDSU 0, AFA 0 -0.59 53.6% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.28 - 0.86 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 0, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.6%

Win Probability (After): 52.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 9 at AFA 26) Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Micah Davis - SDSU 0, AFA 0 -1.05 52.0% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.78 - 0.28 = -1.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 0, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.0%

Win Probability (After): 49.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:08 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 9 at AFA 26) Haaziq Daniels pass intercepted - SDSU 0, AFA 0 -4.42 51.2% -4.7%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 9

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.98 - -0.56 = -4.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.56)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.98)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SDSU 0, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.2%

Win Probability (After): 46.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:08 ESPN team id 21 (1st & Goal at AFA 9) Kaegun Williams run for 6 yds to the AFA 3 - SDSU 0, AFA 0 0.33 56.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 3

Started Drive at: AFA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.58 - 5.24 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.24)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 0, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.0%

Win Probability (After): 56.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:08 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & Goal at AFA 3) Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the AFA 1 - SDSU 0, AFA 0 -0.20 56.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 1

Started Drive at: AFA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.38 - 5.58 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.58)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 0, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.0%

Win Probability (After): 55.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:08 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & Goal at AFA 1) Kaegun Williams run for 4 yds to the AFA 5 - SDSU 0, AFA 0 -2.72 55.7% -3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 5

Started Drive at: AFA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.66 - 5.38 = -2.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.38)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 0, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.7%

Win Probability (After): 52.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:26 ESPN team id 21 (4th & Goal at AFA 5) Matt Araiza 22 yd FG GOOD - SDSU 3, AFA 0 0.14 53.5% -0.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 65

Started Drive at: AFA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.86 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.86)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.5%

Win Probability (After): 52.9%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 12:26 ESPN team id 2005 (Kickoff at AFA 35) Matt Araiza kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - SDSU 3, AFA 0 0.00 49.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 0.64 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.36)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.1%

Win Probability (After): 49.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:26 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 25) Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 30 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 0.21 49.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.85 - 0.64 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.36)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.1%

Win Probability (After): 48.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:26 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 5 at AFA 30) PENALTY SDS Offside (Thomas,Cameron) 5 yards from AF 30 to AF 35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. - SDSU 3, AFA 0 0.78 48.9% 0.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 65

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.63 - 0.85 = 0.78

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.15)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.9%

Win Probability (After): 49.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:26 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 35) Brandon Lewis run for 3 yds to the AFA 38 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.46 49.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 62

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.18 - 1.63 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.37)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.3%

Win Probability (After): 49.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:26 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 7 at AFA 38) Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 42 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.13 49.4% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 58

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.04 - 1.18 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.82)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.4%

Win Probability (After): 48.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:26 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 3 at AFA 42) Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 44 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -1.08 48.9% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 56

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 1.04 = -1.08

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.96)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.9%

Win Probability (After): 47.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:26 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & 1 at AFA 44) Omar Fattah run for 8 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST down - SDSU 3, AFA 0 2.78 47.1% 4.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 48

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - -0.03 = 2.78

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.03)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.1%

Win Probability (After): 51.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 12:26 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at SDSU 48) Omar Fattah run for no gain to the SDSt 48 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.68 51.6% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.06 - 2.74 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.26)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.6%

Win Probability (After): 50.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:26 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 10 at SDSU 48) Micah Davis run for 3 yds to the SDSt 45 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.78 50.5% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 45

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.28 - 2.06 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.94)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.5%

Win Probability (After): 49.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:26 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 7 at SDSU 45) Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the SDSt 42 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -1.41 49.2% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 42

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.13 - 1.28 = -1.41

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.72)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.2%

Win Probability (After): 46.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:56 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & 4 at SDSU 42) Carson Bay punt for 41 yds - SDSU 3, AFA 0 0.22 44.7% 0.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - 0.00 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.00)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.78)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.7%

Win Probability (After): 45.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 7:56 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 1) Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd to the SDSt 2 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.70 52.6% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 99 -> 98

Started Drive at: SDSU 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.12 - -0.42 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.58)

Score Difference (End): 3 (1.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 51.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:56 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 9 at SDSU 2) PENALTY SDS False Start (Rudolph,Jay) 1 yard from SDS02 to SDS01. NO PLAY. - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.04 51.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 99

Started Drive at: SDSU 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.16 - -1.12 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): 3 (1.88)

Score Difference (End): 3 (1.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.8%

Win Probability (After): 52.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:56 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 10 at SDSU 1) Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 6 yds to the SDSt 7 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 0.13 52.0% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 99 -> 93

Started Drive at: SDSU 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.03 - -1.16 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): 3 (1.84)

Score Difference (End): 3 (1.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.0%

Win Probability (After): 50.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:56 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 4 at SDSU 7) Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for no gain to the SDSt 7 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -1.54 50.6% -4.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 93

Started Drive at: SDSU 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.58 - -1.03 = -1.54

Score Difference (Before): 3 (1.97)

Score Difference (End): 3 (0.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.6%

Win Probability (After): 46.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:25 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 4 at SDSU 7) Matt Araiza punt for 81 yds - SDSU 3, AFA 0 2.49 50.4% 4.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 88

Started Drive at: SDSU 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - -2.52 = 2.49

Score Difference (Before): 3 (0.48)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.97)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.4%

Win Probability (After): 54.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 5:25 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 12) Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 14 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.46 44.9% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 86

Started Drive at: AFA 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - 0.07 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.93)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.9%

Win Probability (After): 44.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:25 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 8 at AFA 14) Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Micah Davis - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.85 44.6% -3.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 86

Started Drive at: AFA 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.25 - -0.40 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.40)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.6%

Win Probability (After): 41.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:25 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 8 at AFA 14) DeAndre Hughes run for 4 yds to the AFA 18 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -1.02 41.6% -3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 82

Started Drive at: AFA 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.27 - -1.25 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.25)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-5.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.6%

Win Probability (After): 38.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:10 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & 4 at AFA 18) Carson Bay punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Byrd at the SDSt 40 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.21 39.1% 2.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 60

Started Drive at: AFA 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.49 - -2.28 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-5.28)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.49)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.1%

Win Probability (After): 41.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:10 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 40) Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 43 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.45 62.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 57

Started Drive at: SDSU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.06 - 2.51 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.51)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.3%

Win Probability (After): 62.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:10 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 7 at SDSU 43) Lucas Johnson pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for no gain to the SDSt 43 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.98 62.1% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: SDSU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.09 - 2.06 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.06)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.1%

Win Probability (After): 59.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:10 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 7 at SDSU 43) Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 5 yds to the SDSt 48 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.85 59.8% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 52

Started Drive at: SDSU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - 1.09 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.09)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.8%

Win Probability (After): 59.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:10 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 2 at SDSU 48) Matt Araiza punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 10 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.13 59.1% -4.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 90

Started Drive at: SDSU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.10 - 0.23 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.23)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.10)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.1%

Win Probability (After): 54.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:10 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 10) Haaziq Daniels run for 14 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST down - SDSU 3, AFA 0 0.71 41.2% 1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 76

Started Drive at: AFA 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - -0.08 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.08)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:10 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 24) Haaziq Daniels run for 11 yds to the AFA 35 Haaziq Daniels fumbled, forced by Dallas Branch, recovered by AFA Jake Spiewak for a 1ST down - SDSU 3, AFA 0 1.05 43.0% 1.1%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 65

Started Drive at: AFA 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.69 - 0.64 = 1.05

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.36)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.0%

Win Probability (After): 44.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:10 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 35) Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 36 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.61 44.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 64

Started Drive at: AFA 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 1.69 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.31)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.1%

Win Probability (After): 44.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 9 at AFA 36) Brandon Lewis run for 2 yds to the AFA 38 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.74 42.6% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 62

Started Drive at: AFA 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.39 - 1.13 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.87)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.6%

Win Probability (After): 41.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 7 at AFA 38) Dane Kinamon run for 6 yds to the AFA 44 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.32 43.3% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 56

Started Drive at: AFA 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.11 - 0.42 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.58)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.3%

Win Probability (After): 43.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:27 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & 1 at AFA 44) Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 42 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 2.95 45.7% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 42

Started Drive at: AFA 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 0.16 = 2.95

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.84)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.11)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.7%

Win Probability (After): 46.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:27 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 2 at AFA 34) Jordan Byrd run for 4 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down - SDSU 3, AFA 0 0.04 65.6% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 30

Started Drive at: AFA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.15 - 4.11 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.11)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.6%

Win Probability (After): 65.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:27 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at AFA 30) Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Jesse Matthews - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.56 65.8% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: AFA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.59 - 4.15 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.15)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.8%

Win Probability (After): 64.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:27 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 10 at AFA 30) Kaegun Williams run for 7 yds to the AFA 23 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 0.22 64.2% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 23

Started Drive at: AFA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.81 - 3.59 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.59)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.2%

Win Probability (After): 65.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:27 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at AFA 42) Jordan Byrd run for 8 yds to the AFA 34 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 0.64 64.3% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 34

Started Drive at: AFA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.11 - 3.47 = 0.64

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.47)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.3%

Win Probability (After): 65.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:18 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 10 at AFA 30) Timeout SAN DIEGO ST, clock 12:18 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 0.00 65.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 23

Started Drive at: AFA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.11 - 4.11 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.11)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.2%

Win Probability (After): 65.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:18 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 3 at AFA 23) PENALTY SDS False Start (Bellinger,Daniel) 5 yards from AF 23 to AF 28. NO PLAY. - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.80 63.7% -2.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 28

Started Drive at: AFA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.01 - 3.81 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.81)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.7%

Win Probability (After): 61.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:18 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 8 at AFA 28) Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 13 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST down - SDSU 3, AFA 0 1.97 61.7% 4.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 15

Started Drive at: AFA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.99 - 3.01 = 1.97

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.01)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.7%

Win Probability (After): 65.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:18 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at AFA 15) Chance Bell run for no gain to the AFA 15 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.57 65.9% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: AFA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.42 - 4.99 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.99)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.9%

Win Probability (After): 65.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:18 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 10 at AFA 15) Lucas Johnson run for 7 yds to the AFA 8 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 0.09 65.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 8

Started Drive at: AFA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.51 - 4.42 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.42)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.3%

Win Probability (After): 65.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:18 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 3 at AFA 8) Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the AFA 6 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.55 65.1% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 6

Started Drive at: AFA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.96 - 4.51 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.51)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.1%

Win Probability (After): 63.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:18 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 1 at AFA 6) Chance Bell run for 2 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST down - SDSU 3, AFA 0 2.06 63.6% 3.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 4

Started Drive at: AFA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.02 - 3.96 = 2.06

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.96)

Score Difference (End): 3 (9.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.6%

Win Probability (After): 67.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 12:18 ESPN team id 21 (1st & Goal at AFA 4) Lucas Johnson pass incomplete to Tyrell Shavers - SDSU 3, AFA 0 -0.52 67.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: AFA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.50 - 6.02 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 3 (9.02)

Score Difference (End): 3 (8.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.4%

Win Probability (After): 66.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:18 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & Goal at AFA 4) Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the AFA 1 - SDSU 3, AFA 0 0.37 66.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 1

Started Drive at: AFA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.86 - 5.50 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.50)

Score Difference (End): 3 (8.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 3, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.5%

Win Probability (After): 66.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:42 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & Goal at AFA 1) Kaegun Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) - SDSU 10, AFA 0 1.25 63.2% 9.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.75 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.75)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 10, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.2%

Win Probability (After): 73.1%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:42 ESPN team id 2005 (Kickoff at AFA 35) Matt Araiza kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - SDSU 10, AFA 0 0.00 27.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.57 - 0.57 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.43)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 10, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.1%

Win Probability (After): 27.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:42 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 25) Dane Kinamon run for 4 yds to the AFA 29 - SDSU 10, AFA 0 -0.13 27.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 0.57 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.43)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 10, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.1%

Win Probability (After): 26.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:42 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 6 at AFA 29) PENALTY SDS Offside (Sims,Nassir) 5 yards from AF 29 to AF 34. NO PLAY. - SDSU 10, AFA 0 1.08 26.9% 1.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 66

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.52 - 0.44 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.56)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 10, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 28.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:42 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 1 at AFA 34) Brad Roberts run for 11 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down - SDSU 10, AFA 0 0.50 28.5% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 55

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 1.52 = 0.50

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.48)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 10, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.5%

Win Probability (After): 29.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:42 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 45) Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 48 - SDSU 10, AFA 0 -0.24 29.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 52

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.79 - 2.03 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.97)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 10, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.1%

Win Probability (After): 28.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:42 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 7 at AFA 48) Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Caden Blum - SDSU 10, AFA 0 -0.80 28.9% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - 1.79 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.21)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 10, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.9%

Win Probability (After): 27.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:21 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 7 at AFA 48) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to DeAndre Hughes for 2 yds DeAndre Hughes fumbled, forced by Trenton Thompson, recovered by SDSt Noah Avinger - SDSU 10, AFA 0 -4.33 28.0% -2.8%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 46

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.16 - 1.17 = -4.33

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.83)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.16)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SDSU 10, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.0%

Win Probability (After): 25.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:21 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at AFA 46) Jordan Byrd run for 3 yds to the AFA 43 - SDSU 10, AFA 0 -0.26 79.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 43

Started Drive at: AFA 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.89 - 3.15 = -0.26

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.15)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 10, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.1%

Win Probability (After): 78.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:21 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 7 at AFA 43) Lucas Johnson pass complete to Tyrell Shavers for 6 yds to the AFA 37 - SDSU 10, AFA 0 0.43 78.5% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 37

Started Drive at: AFA 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.32 - 2.89 = 0.43

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.89)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 10, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.5%

Win Probability (After): 79.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:21 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 1 at AFA 37) Jordan Byrd run for 8 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST down - SDSU 10, AFA 0 0.79 79.2% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 29

Started Drive at: AFA 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.11 - 3.32 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.32)

Score Difference (End): 10 (14.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 10, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.2%

Win Probability (After): 79.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:21 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at AFA 29) Lucas Johnson pass complete to BJ Busbee for 3 yds to the AFA 26 - SDSU 10, AFA 0 -0.19 79.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 26

Started Drive at: AFA 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 4.11 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): 10 (14.11)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 10, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.7%

Win Probability (After): 79.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:21 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 7 at AFA 26) Johnson,Lucas pass incomplete to Shavers,Tyrell PENALTY SDS Holding (Bellinger,Daniel) 10 yards from AF 26 to AF 36. NO PLAY. - SDSU 10, AFA 0 -1.24 79.7% -1.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 36

Started Drive at: AFA 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.68 - 3.92 = -1.24

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.92)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 10, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.7%

Win Probability (After): 78.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:21 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 17 at AFA 36) Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the AFA 32 - SDSU 10, AFA 0 -0.51 78.5% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 32

Started Drive at: AFA 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 2.68 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.68)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 10, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.5%

Win Probability (After): 77.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:21 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 13 at AFA 32) PENALTY SDS False Start (Uluave,Alama) 5 yards from AF 32 to AF 37. NO PLAY. - SDSU 10, AFA 0 -0.50 77.5% -0.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 37

Started Drive at: AFA 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.66 - 2.17 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.17)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 10, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.5%

Win Probability (After): 76.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:21 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 18 at AFA 37) PENALTY SDS False Start (Crenshaw-Dickson,Brandon) 5 yards from AF 37 to AF 42. NO PLAY. - SDSU 10, AFA 0 -0.36 76.6% -1.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 42

Started Drive at: AFA 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.30 - 1.66 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.66)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 10, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.6%

Win Probability (After): 75.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:21 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 23 at AFA 42) Kaegun Williams run for 8 yds to the AFA 34 - SDSU 10, AFA 0 -0.35 75.4% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 34

Started Drive at: AFA 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 1.30 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.30)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 10, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.4%

Win Probability (After): 74.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:54 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 15 at AFA 34) Matt Araiza 51 yd FG GOOD - SDSU 13, AFA 0 2.35 74.7% 4.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 65

Started Drive at: AFA 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.65 = 2.35

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.65)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 13, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.7%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 10 (13) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:54 ESPN team id 2005 (Kickoff at AFA 35) Matt Araiza kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - SDSU 13, AFA 0 0.00 21.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.04 - 1.04 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-11.96)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-11.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 13, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.6%

Win Probability (After): 21.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:54 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 25) Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 27 - SDSU 13, AFA 0 -0.32 21.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.72 - 1.04 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-11.96)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-12.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 13, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.6%

Win Probability (After): 21.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:54 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 8 at AFA 27) Micah Davis run for 1 yd to the AFA 28 - SDSU 13, AFA 0 -0.54 21.5% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 72

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.18 - 0.72 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-12.28)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-12.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 13, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.5%

Win Probability (After): 20.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 7 at AFA 28) Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 29 - SDSU 13, AFA 0 0.01 19.2% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 71

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.51 - -0.01 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-13.01)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 13, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.2%

Win Probability (After): 18.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 21 (Kickoff at SDSU 35) Brice Honaker kickoff for 63 yds , Jordan Byrd return for 23 yds to the SDSt 25 - SDSU 13, AFA 0 0.28 83.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: SDSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.13 - 1.85 = 0.28

Score Difference (Before): 13 (14.85)

Score Difference (End): 13 (15.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 13, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.0%

Win Probability (After): 82.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 25) Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 10 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST down - SDSU 13, AFA 0 0.76 83.0% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65

Started Drive at: SDSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.61 - 1.85 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): 13 (14.85)

Score Difference (End): 13 (15.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 13, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.0%

Win Probability (After): 84.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 35) Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the SDSt 37 - SDSU 13, AFA 0 -0.51 84.8% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 63

Started Drive at: SDSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.10 - 2.61 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 13 (15.61)

Score Difference (End): 13 (15.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 13, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.8%

Win Probability (After): 83.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 8 at SDSU 37) Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jordan Byrd for 20 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down - SDSU 13, AFA 0 1.56 83.1% 2.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 43

Started Drive at: SDSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.66 - 2.10 = 1.56

Score Difference (Before): 13 (15.10)

Score Difference (End): 13 (16.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 13, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.1%

Win Probability (After): 85.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at AFA 43) Jordan Byrd run for 6 yds to the AFA 37 - SDSU 13, AFA 0 0.18 85.9% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 37

Started Drive at: SDSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.84 - 3.66 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.66)

Score Difference (End): 13 (16.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 13, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.9%

Win Probability (After): 86.0%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 4 at AFA 37) Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the AFA 35 - SDSU 13, AFA 0 -0.49 86.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 35

Started Drive at: SDSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.35 - 3.84 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.84)

Score Difference (End): 13 (16.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 13, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.0%

Win Probability (After): 85.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 2 at AFA 35) Chance Bell run for 32 yds to the AFA 3 for a 1ST down - SDSU 13, AFA 0 2.63 85.6% 4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 3

Started Drive at: SDSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.98 - 3.35 = 2.63

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.35)

Score Difference (End): 13 (18.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 13, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.6%

Win Probability (After): 89.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:05 ESPN team id 21 (1st & Goal at AFA 3) Chance Bell run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK) - SDSU 20, AFA 0 0.71 90.6% 2.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: SDSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.29 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 13 (19.29)

Score Difference (End): 20 (20.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.6%

Win Probability (After): 93.0%

Away Score: 13 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:05 ESPN team id 2005 (Kickoff at AFA 35) Matt Araiza kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - SDSU 20, AFA 0 0.00 5.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.59 - -0.59 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-20.59)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-20.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.3%

Win Probability (After): 5.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:05 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 25) Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the AFA 23 - SDSU 20, AFA 0 -1.18 5.3% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 77

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.76 - -0.59 = -1.18

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-20.59)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-21.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.3%

Win Probability (After): 4.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:05 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 12 at AFA 23) Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon Lewis - SDSU 20, AFA 0 -0.93 4.8% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.69 - -1.76 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-21.76)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-22.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.8%

Win Probability (After): 3.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:05 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 12 at AFA 23) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 11 yds to the AFA 34 - SDSU 20, AFA 0 1.00 3.9% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 66

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.69 - -2.69 = 1.00

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-22.69)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-21.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.9%

Win Probability (After): 4.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:05 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & 1 at AFA 34) PENALTY SDS Offside (Banks,Keshawn) 5 yards from AF 34 to AF 39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. - SDSU 20, AFA 0 2.26 4.9% 1.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 61

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.57 - -1.69 = 2.26

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-21.69)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-19.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.9%

Win Probability (After): 6.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 11:05 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 39) Fattah,Omar rush for 2 yards gain to the AF 41 (Tavai,Jonah) PENALTY AF Personal Foul (Smalley,Everett) 15 yards from AF 39 to AF 24. NO PLAY. - SDSU 20, AFA 0 -1.78 6.3% -1.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 76

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.21 - 0.57 = -1.78

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-19.43)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-21.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.3%

Win Probability (After): 5.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:05 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 25 at AFA 24) Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the AFA 31 - SDSU 20, AFA 0 -0.17 5.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 69

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.39 - -1.21 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-21.21)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-21.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.1%

Win Probability (After): 4.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:05 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 18 at AFA 31) Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the AFA 38 - SDSU 20, AFA 0 -0.12 4.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 62

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.51 - -1.39 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-21.39)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-21.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.9%

Win Probability (After): 4.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:05 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 11 at AFA 38) Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Micah Davis - SDSU 20, AFA 0 -1.13 4.8% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.64 - -1.51 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-21.51)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-22.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.8%

Win Probability (After): 3.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:08 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & 11 at AFA 38) Carson Bay punt for 35 yds - SDSU 20, AFA 0 -0.53 3.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 73

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.03 - -2.50 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-22.50)

Score Difference (End): 20 (23.03)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.3%

Win Probability (After): 3.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 8:08 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 27) Lucas Johnson sacked by Jordan Jackson for a loss of 11 yards to the SDSt 16 - SDSU 20, AFA 0 -1.55 95.8% -0.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 84

Started Drive at: SDSU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.33 - 2.89 = -1.55

Score Difference (Before): 20 (22.89)

Score Difference (End): 20 (21.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.8%

Win Probability (After): 95.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:08 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 21 at SDSU 16) Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 20 - SDSU 20, AFA 0 -0.71 95.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 80

Started Drive at: SDSU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 1.33 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): 20 (21.33)

Score Difference (End): 20 (20.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.3%

Win Probability (After): 95.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:08 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 17 at SDSU 20) Lucas Johnson run for 5 yds to the SDSt 25 - SDSU 20, AFA 0 -1.09 95.0% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 75

Started Drive at: SDSU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.47 - 0.63 = -1.09

Score Difference (Before): 20 (20.63)

Score Difference (End): 20 (19.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.0%

Win Probability (After): 94.2%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:04 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 12 at SDSU 25) Matt Araiza punt for 67 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 43 , Micah Davis returns for 20 yds to the AFA 45 AIR FORCE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the AFA 43 - SDSU 20, AFA 0 -0.56 95.6% -1.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 57

Started Drive at: SDSU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.03 - -0.28 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 20 (19.53)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-18.97)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.6%

Win Probability (After): 94.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:04 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 43) Omar Fattah run for 2 yds to the AFA 45 - SDSU 20, AFA 0 -0.54 3.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 55

Started Drive at: AFA 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - 1.07 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-18.93)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-19.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.9%

Win Probability (After): 3.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:04 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 8 at AFA 45) Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the SDSt 49 - SDSU 20, AFA 0 0.55 3.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 49

Started Drive at: AFA 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 0.53 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-19.47)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-18.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.8%

Win Probability (After): 3.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:04 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 2 at SDSU 49) Omar Fattah run for 6 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST down - SDSU 20, AFA 0 1.23 3.9% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 43

Started Drive at: AFA 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.31 - 1.08 = 1.23

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-18.92)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-17.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.9%

Win Probability (After): 5.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:04 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at SDSU 43) Warren Bryan run for 3 yds to the SDSt 40 - SDSU 20, AFA 0 -0.19 5.0% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 40

Started Drive at: AFA 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.12 - 2.31 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-17.69)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-17.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.0%

Win Probability (After): 4.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:04 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 7 at SDSU 40) Omar Fattah run for 8 yds to the SDSt 32 for a 1ST down - SDSU 20, AFA 0 1.15 4.5% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 32

Started Drive at: AFA 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.27 - 2.12 = 1.15

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-17.88)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-16.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.5%

Win Probability (After): 5.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:04 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at SDSU 32) Micah Davis run for 9 yds to the SDSt 23 - SDSU 20, AFA 0 0.82 5.4% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 23

Started Drive at: AFA 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.09 - 3.27 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-16.73)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-15.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.4%

Win Probability (After): 6.2%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:04 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 1 at SDSU 23) Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the SDSt 19 for a 1ST down - SDSU 20, AFA 0 0.18 6.2% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 19

Started Drive at: AFA 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.27 - 4.09 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-15.91)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-15.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.2%

Win Probability (After): 6.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:04 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at SDSU 19) Emmanuel Michel run for no gain to the SDSt 19 - SDSU 20, AFA 0 -0.69 6.5% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: AFA 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.59 - 4.27 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-15.73)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-16.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.5%

Win Probability (After): 5.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:04 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 10 at SDSU 19) Micah Davis run for 1 yd to the SDSt 18 - SDSU 20, AFA 0 -0.82 5.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 18

Started Drive at: AFA 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.76 - 3.59 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-16.41)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-17.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 5.2%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:04 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 9 at SDSU 18) Warren Bryan run for 5 yds to the SDSt 13 - SDSU 20, AFA 0 -0.68 5.2% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 13

Started Drive at: AFA 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.08 - 2.76 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-17.24)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-17.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.2%

Win Probability (After): 4.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:07 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & 4 at SDSU 13) Dalton King 13 Yd pass from Warren Bryan (Matthew Dapore Kick) - SDSU 20, AFA 7 4.96 2.4% 13.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.04 = 4.96

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-17.96)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.4%

Win Probability (After): 15.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:02 ESPN team id 21 (Kickoff at SDSU 35) Brice Honaker kickoff for 65 yds , Jordan Byrd return for 23 yds to the SDSt 23 - SDSU 20, AFA 7 -0.08 93.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 77

Started Drive at: SDSU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.90 - 1.98 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): 13 (14.98)

Score Difference (End): 13 (14.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.1%

Win Probability (After): 93.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:02 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 23) Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 27 - SDSU 20, AFA 7 -0.12 93.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 73

Started Drive at: SDSU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.78 - 1.91 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): 13 (14.91)

Score Difference (End): 13 (14.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.0%

Win Probability (After): 92.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 6 at SDSU 27) Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 32 - SDSU 20, AFA 7 0.21 93.1% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 68

Started Drive at: SDSU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - 1.76 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): 13 (14.76)

Score Difference (End): 13 (14.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.1%

Win Probability (After): 92.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 1 at SDSU 32) Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST down - SDSU 20, AFA 7 0.78 91.8% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 63

Started Drive at: SDSU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.72 - 1.93 = 0.78

Score Difference (Before): 13 (14.93)

Score Difference (End): 13 (15.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.8%

Win Probability (After): 92.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 37) Lucas Johnson pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 6 yds to the SDSt 43 - SDSU 20, AFA 7 0.14 92.4% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 57

Started Drive at: SDSU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.86 - 2.72 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): 13 (15.72)

Score Difference (End): 13 (15.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.4%

Win Probability (After): 92.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 4 at SDSU 43) Greg Bell run for 11 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down - SDSU 20, AFA 7 0.61 92.7% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 46

Started Drive at: SDSU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 2.86 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): 13 (15.86)

Score Difference (End): 13 (16.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.7%

Win Probability (After): 93.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at AFA 46) Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the AFA 42 - SDSU 20, AFA 7 -0.25 93.4% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 42

Started Drive at: SDSU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.22 - 3.47 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.47)

Score Difference (End): 13 (16.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.4%

Win Probability (After): 92.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 6 at AFA 42) PENALTY SDS False Start (Martinez,Chris) 5 yards from AF 42 to AF 47. NO PLAY. - SDSU 20, AFA 7 -0.79 92.9% -0.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 47

Started Drive at: SDSU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 3.22 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.22)

Score Difference (End): 13 (15.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.9%

Win Probability (After): 92.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 11 at AFA 47) Greg Bell run for 9 yds to the AFA 38 - SDSU 20, AFA 7 0.78 92.3% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 38

Started Drive at: SDSU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.22 - 2.43 = 0.78

Score Difference (Before): 13 (15.43)

Score Difference (End): 13 (16.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.3%

Win Probability (After): 92.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 2 at AFA 38) Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the AFA 40 - SDSU 20, AFA 7 -2.37 92.9% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 40

Started Drive at: SDSU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - 3.22 = -2.37

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.22)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.9%

Win Probability (After): 91.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:32 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 4 at AFA 40) Matt Araiza punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 11 - SDSU 20, AFA 7 -0.52 94.4% -4.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 89

Started Drive at: SDSU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 0.96 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 13 (13.96)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.43)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.4%

Win Probability (After): 89.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:32 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 11) Zachary Larrier run for 16 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST down - SDSU 20, AFA 7 1.12 9.5% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 73

Started Drive at: AFA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.94 - -0.17 = 1.12

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-13.17)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-12.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.5%

Win Probability (After): 10.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:32 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 27) Warren Bryan pass incomplete to Brandon Lewis - SDSU 20, AFA 7 -0.75 10.1% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: AFA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - 0.94 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-12.06)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-12.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.1%

Win Probability (After): 9.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:32 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 10 at AFA 27) Omar Fattah run for 3 yds to the AFA 30 - SDSU 20, AFA 7 -0.63 9.3% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 70

Started Drive at: AFA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.44 - 0.19 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-12.81)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.3%

Win Probability (After): 8.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:32 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 7 at AFA 30) Warren Bryan run for 9 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down - SDSU 20, AFA 7 2.22 8.5% 2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 61

Started Drive at: AFA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.79 - -0.44 = 2.22

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-13.44)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-11.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.5%

Win Probability (After): 10.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:32 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 39) Warren Bryan pass complete to Jake Spiewak for 31 yds to the SDSt 30 for a 1ST down - SDSU 20, AFA 7 2.05 10.6% 2.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 30

Started Drive at: AFA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.84 - 1.79 = 2.05

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-11.21)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-9.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.6%

Win Probability (After): 13.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:32 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at SDSU 30) Omar Fattah run for 2 yds to the SDSt 28 - SDSU 20, AFA 7 -0.41 13.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 28

Started Drive at: AFA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.43 - 3.84 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-9.16)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-9.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.1%

Win Probability (After): 12.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:32 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 8 at SDSU 28) Brandon Lewis run for 7 yds to the SDSt 21 - SDSU 20, AFA 7 0.86 12.6% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 21

Started Drive at: AFA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 3.43 = 0.86

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-9.57)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-8.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.6%

Win Probability (After): 14.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:32 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 1 at SDSU 21) Warren Bryan run for 3 yds to the SDSt 18 for a 1ST down - SDSU 20, AFA 7 0.42 14.1% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 18

Started Drive at: AFA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.70 - 4.29 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-8.71)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-8.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.1%

Win Probability (After): 14.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:32 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at SDSU 18) Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the SDSt 19 - SDSU 20, AFA 7 -1.07 14.8% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 19

Started Drive at: AFA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.63 - 4.70 = -1.07

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-8.30)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-9.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.8%

Win Probability (After): 13.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:32 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 11 at SDSU 19) Warren Bryan sacked by Cameron Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSt 21 - SDSU 20, AFA 7 -1.18 13.0% -2.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 21

Started Drive at: AFA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.45 - 3.63 = -1.18

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-9.37)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-10.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.0%

Win Probability (After): 10.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:32 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 13 at SDSU 21) Warren Bryan pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 14 yds to the SDSt 7 for a 1ST down - SDSU 20, AFA 7 3.09 10.9% 6.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 7

Started Drive at: AFA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.54 - 2.45 = 3.09

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-10.55)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-7.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.9%

Win Probability (After): 17.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:32 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & Goal at SDSU 7) Warren Bryan run for 3 yds to the SDSt 4 - SDSU 20, AFA 7 -0.07 17.0% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 4

Started Drive at: AFA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.47 - 5.54 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-7.46)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-7.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 87 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.0%

Win Probability (After): 16.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:32 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & Goal at SDSU 4) Omar Fattah run for 1 yd to the SDSt 3 - SDSU 20, AFA 7 -0.64 16.8% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 3

Started Drive at: AFA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.83 - 5.47 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-7.53)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-8.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 88 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.8%

Win Probability (After): 15.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:32 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & Goal at SDSU 3) Warren Bryan pass incomplete to Jake Spiewak - SDSU 20, AFA 7 -1.85 15.4% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 3

Started Drive at: AFA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.97 - 4.83 = -1.85

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-8.17)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-10.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 7

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 88 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.4%

Win Probability (After): 12.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:59 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & Goal at SDSU 3) Dane Kinamon run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - SDSU 20, AFA 14 3.60 5.6% 24.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.40 = 3.60

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-9.60)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 91 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 30.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 3:59 ESPN team id 21 (Kickoff at SDSU 35) Brice Honaker kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - SDSU 20, AFA 14 0.00 89.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: SDSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 0.95 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.95)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.1%

Win Probability (After): 89.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:59 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at SDSU 25) Lucas Johnson pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 3 yds to the SDSt 28 - SDSU 20, AFA 14 -0.40 89.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 72

Started Drive at: SDSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 0.95 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.95)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.1%

Win Probability (After): 89.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:59 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 7 at SDSU 28) Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 29 - SDSU 20, AFA 14 -0.42 89.0% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 71

Started Drive at: SDSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 0.55 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.55)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.0%

Win Probability (After): 86.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:59 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 6 at SDSU 29) Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 32 - SDSU 20, AFA 14 -1.13 86.9% -6.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 68

Started Drive at: SDSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.00 - 0.13 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.13)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.9%

Win Probability (After): 80.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:26 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 6 at SDSU 29) Timeout AIR FORCE, clock 02:26 - SDSU 20, AFA 14 0.00 88.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 68

Started Drive at: SDSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.00 - -1.00 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (5.00)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.3%

Win Probability (After): 88.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:18 ESPN team id 21 (4th & 3 at SDSU 32) Matt Araiza punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Jake Spiewak at the AFA 13 - SDSU 20, AFA 14 0.03 86.6% -6.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 87

Started Drive at: SDSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.41 - -0.44 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): 6 (5.56)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.59)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.6%

Win Probability (After): 80.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:18 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 13) Warren Bryan pass incomplete to Brandon Lewis - SDSU 20, AFA 14 -0.37 19.3% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 87

Started Drive at: AFA 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - 0.61 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.39)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.3%

Win Probability (After): 18.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:18 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 10 at AFA 13) Warren Bryan pass incomplete to Jake Spiewak - SDSU 20, AFA 14 -0.57 18.6% -2.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 87

Started Drive at: AFA 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.33 - 0.24 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.76)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.6%

Win Probability (After): 15.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:18 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 10 at AFA 13) Warren Bryan run for 3 yds to the AFA 16 - SDSU 20, AFA 14 -0.68 15.8% -5.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 84

Started Drive at: AFA 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.01 - -0.33 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.33)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-7.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.8%

Win Probability (After): 10.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:18 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & 7 at AFA 16) Bryan,Warren pass complete to Lewis,Brandon for 14 yards to the AF 30 (Lakalaka,Seyddrick) PENALTY AF Chop Block 8 yards from AF 16 to AF 08. NO PLAY. - SDSU 20, AFA 14 -0.35 10.0% -1.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 92

Started Drive at: AFA 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.36 - -1.01 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-7.01)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-7.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.0%

Win Probability (After): 8.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:35 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & 15 at AFA 8) Carson Bay punt for 41 yds - SDSU 20, AFA 14 -0.34 5.5% -0.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 49

Started Drive at: AFA 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.85 - -1.52 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-7.52)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.85)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.5%

Win Probability (After): 4.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:35 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at AFA 49) Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the AFA 47 - SDSU 20, AFA 14 -0.25 97.0% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 47

Started Drive at: AFA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 1.59 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.59)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.0%

Win Probability (After): 96.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:31 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at AFA 49) Timeout AIR FORCE, clock 01:31 - SDSU 20, AFA 14 0.00 97.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 47

Started Drive at: AFA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 1.35 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.35)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.1%

Win Probability (After): 97.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:31 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 8 at AFA 47) Kaegun Williams run for 9 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down - SDSU 20, AFA 14 0.79 97.0% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 38

Started Drive at: AFA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 1.32 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.32)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.0%

Win Probability (After): 97.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:51 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 8 at AFA 47) Timeout SAN DIEGO ST, clock 00:51 - SDSU 20, AFA 14 0.00 98.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 38

Started Drive at: AFA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 2.11 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.11)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:51 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at AFA 38) run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 39 - SDSU 20, AFA 14 -0.62 98.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 39

Started Drive at: AFA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 1.97 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.97)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.0%

Win Probability (After): 98.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:49 ESPN team id 21 (1st & 10 at AFA 38) Timeout AIR FORCE, clock 00:49 - SDSU 20, AFA 14 0.00 98.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 39

Started Drive at: AFA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 1.35 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.35)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.0%

Win Probability (After): 98.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:49 ESPN team id 21 (2nd & 11 at AFA 39) run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 40 - SDSU 20, AFA 14 -0.46 98.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 40

Started Drive at: AFA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.89 - 1.35 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.35)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.1%

Win Probability (After): 97.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 21 (3rd & 12 at AFA 40) PENALTY AF Offside (Brockman,Elijah) 5 yards from AF 40 to AF 35. NO PLAY. - SDSU 20, AFA 14 1.31 95.8% 4.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 35

Started Drive at: AFA 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.69 - 0.38 = 1.31

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.38)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SDSU 20, AFA 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.8%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3