Colorado State 24 @ Utah State 26

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 6.62 | Odds: CSU -3, O/U 58.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 36 ESPN team id 328
Total Plays 7990
Total EPA 2.16-3.54
  Offensive EPA 0.92-12.38
  Special Teams EPA -0.362.74
  Penalty EPA 1.66.1
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 0.000.00
Production ESPN team id 36 ESPN team id 328
Scrimmage Plays 6776
  Yards 425400
  Yards/Play 6.345.26
  EPA 0.92-12.38
  EPA/Play 0.01-0.16
Passes 27 (40%)37 (49%)
  Yards 236233
  Yards/Play 8.746.30
  EPA 11.43-10.15
  EPA/Play 0.42-0.27
Rushes 40 (60%)39 (51%)
  Yards 189167
  Yards/Play 4.724.28
  EPA -10.50-2.23
  EPA/Play -0.26-0.06
Rushing ESPN team id 36 ESPN team id 328
Scrimmage Plays 6776
Rushes 40 (60%)39 (51%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 1 (2%)2 (5%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 1 (100%)2 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 4 (10%)9 (23%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 15 (38%)18 (46%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 19 (48%)17 (44%)
OL Line Yards 69.661
  Per Carry 1.741.56
Highlight Yards 5742.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 3.002.50
Explosiveness ESPN team id 36 ESPN team id 328
Total Plays 7990
Scrimmage Plays 6776
Explosive Plays 5 (7%)5 (7%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 4 (15%)3 (8%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 1 (2%)2 (5%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -12.51-30.15
  EPA/Play -0.20-0.42
  When Passing 0.04-22.29
    EPA/Play 0.00-0.60
  When Rushing -12.56-7.87
    EPA/Play -0.32-0.21
Situational ESPN team id 36 ESPN team id 328
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 31 (46%)26 (34%)
  When Passing 13 (48%)11 (30%)
  When Rushing 18 (45%)15 (38%)
  On Standard Downs 23 (55%)21 (43%)
  On Passing Downs 8 (32%)5 (19%)
  On Early Downs 25 (47%)19 (35%)
  On Late Downs 6 (43%)7 (33%)
  During "Middle 8" 0 (0%)5 (26%)
Early Downs 5355
  First Downs Created 14 (26%)13 (24%)
  EPA 1.69-13.68
  EPA/Play 0.03-0.25
  Passes 18 (34%)22 (40%)
  Rushes 35 (66%)33 (60%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 8 (44%)7 (32%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 17 (49%)12 (36%)
"Middle 8" Plays 019
  EPA 0.00-6.85
  EPA/play 0.00-0.36
  Passes 0 (0%)12 (63%)
  Rushes 0 (0%)7 (37%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 0 (0%)1 (8%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 0 (0%)4 (57%)
Drives ESPN team id 36 ESPN team id 328
Total 1213
Avg Starting Field Position Own 24Own 27
Plays/Drive 7.607.18
Yards/Drive 47.7035.11
Available Yards % 63%48%
Defensive ESPN team id 36 ESPN team id 328
Scrimmage Plays 7667
Stop Rate 46%45%
Havoc Plays Created 14 (18%)5 (7%)
  Passing 11 (30%)2 (7%)
  Rushing 3 (8%)3 (8%)
TFLs Generated 134
  Passing 101
  Rushing 33
Sacks Generated 8 (22%)1 (4%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 11
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 36 ESPN team id 328
Turnovers 31
  Fumbles 20
  Fumbles Lost 20
  Fumbles Recovered 00
  Interceptions 11
Turnover Margin -22
Expected Turnovers 1.21.2
Expected Turnover Margin 0.00.0
Turnover Luck (pts) -10.010.0
Special Teams ESPN team id 36 ESPN team id 328
Total Plays 12 14
Total EPA -0.36 2.74
  Field Goal EPA -1.35 3.12
  Punting EPA 2.34 0.21
  Kickoff Return EPA -1.36 -0.59

Colorado State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Todd Centeio 15/26, 236 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 Sck, 83.4 xQBR 8.74 0.42 11.43 48% 76.0%
Rush attempts
David Bailey 29 carries, 150 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.17 0.10 2.84 55% 9.0%
Jaylen Thomas 3 carries, 11 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 3.67 -1.83 -5.50 33% -12.0%
Todd Centeio 7 carries, 33 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 4.71 -0.89 -6.21 14% -10.0%
Pass targets
Gary Williams 3 catches (3 targets), 80 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 26.67 2.35 7.05 100% 39.0%
Dante Wright 2 catches (2 targets), 35 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 17.50 2.59 5.18 100% 16.0%
Jordan Kress 1 catch (1 target), 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 18.00 3.31 3.31 100% 10.0%
Trey McBride 5 catches (5 targets), 34 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.80 0.66 3.29 60% 6.0%
David Bailey 2 catches (2 targets), 39 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 19.50 1.28 2.55 100% 5.0%
Ty McCullouch 1 catch (1 target), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.00 1.74 1.74 100% 40.0%
Justice McCoy 1 catch (1 target), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.00 1.25 1.25 100% 3.0%

Utah State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Logan Bonner 17/29, 233 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 8 Scks, 31.9 xQBR 6.30 -0.27 -10.15 30% -26.0%
Rush attempts
Logan Bonner 1 carry, 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.00 0.70 0.70 100% 1.0%
Savon Scarver 1 carry, 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 0.56 0.56 100% 1.0%
Pailate Makakona 6 carries, 29 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.83 -0.12 -0.72 33% 0.0%
Elelyon Noa 26 carries, 97 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.73 -0.05 -1.24 38% -6.0%
John Gentry 5 carries, 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.60 -0.30 -1.52 20% -8.0%
Pass targets
Deven Thompkins 6 catches (6 targets), 104 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 17.33 1.63 9.79 83% 19.0%
Derek Wright 2 catches (2 targets), 63 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 31.50 4.44 8.87 100% 22.0%
Brandon Bowling 1 catch (1 target), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 1.86 1.86 100% 7.0%
Carson Terrell 1 catch (1 target), 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 20.00 1.17 1.17 100% 2.0%
John Gentry 1 catch (1 target), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 -0.02 -0.02 0% -2.0%
Pailate Makakona 1 catch (1 target), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 -0.42 -0.42 0% -2.0%
Elelyon Noa 3 catches (3 targets), 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.67 -0.28 -0.85 33% -2.0%
Justin McGriff 2 catches (2 targets), 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.46 -0.92 50% -3.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 8:03 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at CSU 18) Logan Bonner pass intercepted - CSU 0, USU 0 -6.81 49.0% -14.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 64

Started Drive at: CSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.95 - 4.86 = -6.81

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.95)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.0%

Win Probability (After): 34.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:19 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 5 at CSU 38) Derek Wright 38 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick) - CSU 7, USU 14 6.24 45.7% 13.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 99

Started Drive at: USU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.76 = 6.24

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.76)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.7%

Win Probability (After): 59.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 1:01 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at USU 37) Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the UthSt 34 - CSU 0, USU 0 -5.58 63.8% -12.3%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 66

Started Drive at: CSU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.92 - 3.66 = -5.58

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.66)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.92)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.8%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:02 ESPN team id 36 (3rd & 15 at USU 45) Todd Centeio pass complete to Jordan Kress for 18 yds to the UthSt 27 for a 1ST down - CSU 0, USU 7 3.31 38.0% 9.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 27

Started Drive at: CSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.90 - 0.60 = 3.31

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.40)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.0%

Win Probability (After): 47.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:15 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 11 at USU 23) Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 34 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST down - CSU 7, USU 7 3.26 38.5% 10.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 43

Started Drive at: USU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.32 - 0.05 = 3.26

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.5%

Win Probability (After): 48.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 4 at CSU 34) Elelyon Noa run for 9 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST down - CSU 14, USU 20 3.19 71.2% 4.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 25

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.20 - 1.01 = 3.19

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.01)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 20

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.2%

Win Probability (After): 75.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:47 ESPN team id 36 (3rd & 8 at CSU 28) Todd Centeio pass intercepted - CSU 0, USU 0 -2.95 59.1% -4.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 41

Started Drive at: CSU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.48 - -0.53 = -2.95

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.48)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.1%

Win Probability (After): 54.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:40 ESPN team id 36 (3rd & 7 at CSU 40) Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 20 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST down - CSU 0, USU 7 2.90 39.0% 7.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 40

Started Drive at: CSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 0.02 = 2.90

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.98)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.0%

Win Probability (After): 46.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:35 ESPN team id 36 (4th & 5 at USU 36) Todd Centeio run for 1 yd to the UthSt 35 - CSU 14, USU 23 -2.78 21.0% -3.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 65

Started Drive at: CSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.46 - 0.32 = -2.78

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.68)

Score Difference (End): 9 (11.46)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.0%

Win Probability (After): 17.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:47 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at CSU 34) Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 43 yds to the UthSt 23 for a 1ST down - CSU 14, USU 23 2.67 21.2% 9.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 23

Started Drive at: CSU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.19 - 1.53 = 2.67

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.47)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-4.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.2%

Win Probability (After): 30.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 0:01 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at USU 24) Cayden Camper 42 yd FG MISSED - CSU 24, USU 26 -2.28 38.9% 61.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 76

Started Drive at: CSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - 1.94 = -2.28

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.06)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.35)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 24, USU 26

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.9%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:44 ESPN team id 36 (3rd & 10 at USU 39) Todd Centeio pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 15 yds to the UthSt 24 for a 1ST down - CSU 24, USU 26 1.74 40.0% 39.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 24

Started Drive at: CSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 1.70 = 1.74

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.30)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 24, USU 26

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.0%

Win Probability (After): 79.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 3:31 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at USU 13) Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 13 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) - CSU 24, USU 26 2.27 17.4% 24.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: CSU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.73 = 2.27

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-4.27)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 24, USU 26

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.4%

Win Probability (After): 42.2%

Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 8:03 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at CSU 18) Logan Bonner pass intercepted - CSU 0, USU 0 -6.81 49.0% -14.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 64

Started Drive at: CSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.95 - 4.86 = -6.81

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.95)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.0%

Win Probability (After): 34.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:19 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 5 at CSU 38) Derek Wright 38 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick) - CSU 7, USU 14 6.24 45.7% 13.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 99

Started Drive at: USU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.76 = 6.24

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.76)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.7%

Win Probability (After): 59.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:05 ESPN team id 36 (4th & 9 at USU 22) Cayden Camper 40 yd FG GOOD - CSU 17, USU 23 0.94 18.2% 12.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 65

Started Drive at: CSU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.06 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.94)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 23

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.2%

Win Probability (After): 30.5%

Away Score: 14 (17) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 1:01 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at USU 37) Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the UthSt 34 - CSU 0, USU 0 -5.58 63.8% -12.3%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 66

Started Drive at: CSU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.92 - 3.66 = -5.58

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.66)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.92)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.8%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:15 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 11 at USU 23) Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 34 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST down - CSU 7, USU 7 3.26 38.5% 10.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 43

Started Drive at: USU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.32 - 0.05 = 3.26

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.5%

Win Probability (After): 48.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:02 ESPN team id 36 (3rd & 15 at USU 45) Todd Centeio pass complete to Jordan Kress for 18 yds to the UthSt 27 for a 1ST down - CSU 0, USU 7 3.31 38.0% 9.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 27

Started Drive at: CSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.90 - 0.60 = 3.31

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.40)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.0%

Win Probability (After): 47.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:57 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 3 at USU 45) Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 42 - CSU 24, USU 26 -0.69 88.9% -9.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 58

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.07 - 0.76 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.76)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 24, USU 26

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.1%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 14:45 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at CSU 25) Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 25 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) - CSU 0, USU 7 2.63 52.5% 8.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 99

Started Drive at: USU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.37 = 2.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.37)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.5%

Win Probability (After): 60.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:21 ESPN team id 36 (1st & Goal at USU 4) David Bailey run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) - CSU 7, USU 7 1.13 52.8% 2.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: CSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.87 = 1.13

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 7

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.8%

Win Probability (After): 55.4%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:19 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 5 at CSU 38) Derek Wright 38 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick) - CSU 7, USU 14 6.24 45.7% 13.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 99

Started Drive at: USU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.76 = 6.24

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.76)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.7%

Win Probability (After): 59.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:11 ESPN team id 36 (1st & Goal at USU 2) David Bailey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) - CSU 14, USU 14 0.92 54.8% 0.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.08 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-0.92)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.8%

Win Probability (After): 55.7%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:30 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 14 at CSU 28) Connor Coles 45 yd FG GOOD - CSU 14, USU 17 1.12 45.4% 9.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 65

Started Drive at: CSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.88 = 1.12

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.88)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.4%

Win Probability (After): 54.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:33 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 10 at CSU 13) Connor Coles 30 yd FG GOOD - CSU 14, USU 20 0.53 64.5% 1.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 65

Started Drive at: CSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.47 = 0.53

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.47)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.5%

Win Probability (After): 65.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:23 ESPN team id 328 (4th & Goal at CSU 25) Connor Coles 42 yd FG GOOD - CSU 14, USU 23 1.02 69.8% 4.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 65

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.98 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.98)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.8%

Win Probability (After): 74.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:05 ESPN team id 36 (4th & 9 at USU 22) Cayden Camper 40 yd FG GOOD - CSU 17, USU 23 0.94 18.2% 12.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 65

Started Drive at: CSU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.06 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.94)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 23

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.2%

Win Probability (After): 30.5%

Away Score: 14 (17) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:03 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 3 at CSU 17) Connor Coles 34 yd FG GOOD - CSU 17, USU 26 0.44 89.8% 4.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 65

Started Drive at: USU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.56 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.56)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 26

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.8%

Win Probability (After): 94.6%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 23 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 3:31 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at USU 13) Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 13 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) - CSU 24, USU 26 2.27 17.4% 24.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: CSU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.73 = 2.27

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-4.27)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 24, USU 26

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.4%

Win Probability (After): 42.2%

Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 36 (Kickoff at CSU 35) Elliott Nimrod kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - CSU 0, USU 0 0.00 55.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.2%

Win Probability (After): 55.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at CSU 25) Todd Centeio run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29 - CSU 0, USU 0 -0.03 59.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 0.86 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.8%

Win Probability (After): 59.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 6 at CSU 29) David Bailey run for 10 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST down - CSU 0, USU 0 1.11 59.6% 4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 61

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 0.83 = 1.11

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.83)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.6%

Win Probability (After): 63.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at CSU 39) Todd Centeio sacked by Patrick Joyner Jr. for 0 yards to the ColSt 32 - CSU 0, USU 0 -1.75 63.6% -6.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 68

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - 1.95 = -1.75

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.6%

Win Probability (After): 56.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 17 at CSU 32) David Bailey run for 7 yds to the ColSt 39 - CSU 0, USU 0 0.13 56.9% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 61

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.33 - 0.19 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.9%

Win Probability (After): 57.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 36 (3rd & 10 at CSU 39) Todd Centeio run for 6 yds to the ColSt 45 - CSU 0, USU 0 -1.18 57.7% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 55

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.85 - 0.33 = -1.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.33)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.7%

Win Probability (After): 56.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:16 ESPN team id 36 (4th & 4 at CSU 45) Ryan Stonehouse punt for 39 yds - CSU 0, USU 0 0.17 58.9% 2.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 84

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - -0.57 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.40)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.9%

Win Probability (After): 61.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 12:16 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 16) Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 19 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST down - CSU 0, USU 0 1.32 39.4% 3.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 65

Started Drive at: USU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - 0.65 = 1.32

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.65)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.4%

Win Probability (After): 42.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:16 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 35) Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds to the UthSt 38 - CSU 0, USU 0 -0.48 42.8% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 62

Started Drive at: USU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.49 - 1.97 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.97)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.8%

Win Probability (After): 40.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:16 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 7 at USU 38) COLORADO ST Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the UthSt 43 - CSU 0, USU 0 1.01 38.9% 1.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 57

Started Drive at: USU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.54 - 0.53 = 1.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.9%

Win Probability (After): 40.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:16 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 2 at USU 43) Elelyon Noa run for 1 yd to the UthSt 44 - CSU 0, USU 0 -1.26 40.8% -2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 56

Started Drive at: USU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.28 - 1.54 = -1.26

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.8%

Win Probability (After): 37.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:16 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 1 at USU 44) Elelyon Noa run for 5 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST down - CSU 0, USU 0 2.45 37.9% 7.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 51

Started Drive at: USU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.73 - 0.28 = 2.45

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.9%

Win Probability (After): 45.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 12:16 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 49) Logan Bonner pass incomplete - CSU 0, USU 0 -0.68 45.2% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 51

Started Drive at: USU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.05 - 2.73 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.73)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:16 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 10 at USU 49) Logan Bonner pass incomplete - CSU 0, USU 0 -0.96 43.6% -3.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 51

Started Drive at: USU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.09 - 2.05 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.6%

Win Probability (After): 40.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:16 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 10 at USU 49) Logan Bonner pass incomplete - CSU 0, USU 0 -1.77 40.4% -4.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 51

Started Drive at: USU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.68 - 1.09 = -1.77

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.09)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.4%

Win Probability (After): 36.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:27 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 10 at USU 49) Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Thomas Pannunzio at the ColSt 8 - CSU 0, USU 0 0.68 33.6% 7.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 92

Started Drive at: USU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.15 - -0.52 = 0.68

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.52)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.15)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.6%

Win Probability (After): 40.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:27 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at CSU 8) David Bailey run for 18 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST down - CSU 0, USU 0 1.53 60.4% 3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 74

Started Drive at: CSU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.45 - -0.08 = 1.53

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.4%

Win Probability (After): 64.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:27 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at CSU 26) David Bailey run for 1 yd to the ColSt 27 - CSU 0, USU 0 -0.82 64.0% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 73

Started Drive at: CSU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 1.45 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.45)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.0%

Win Probability (After): 62.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:53 ESPN team id 36 (3rd & 8 at CSU 28) Timeout COLORADO ST, clock 08:53 - CSU 0, USU 0 0.00 61.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 72

Started Drive at: CSU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 0.63 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.4%

Win Probability (After): 61.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:53 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 9 at CSU 27) Todd Centeio run for 1 yd to the ColSt 28 - CSU 0, USU 0 -1.03 62.0% -3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 72

Started Drive at: CSU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.54 - 0.49 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.0%

Win Probability (After): 58.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:47 ESPN team id 36 (3rd & 8 at CSU 28) Todd Centeio pass intercepted - CSU 0, USU 0 -2.95 59.1% -4.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 41

Started Drive at: CSU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.48 - -0.53 = -2.95

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.48)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.1%

Win Probability (After): 54.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 8:47 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at CSU 41) Pailate Makakona run for 13 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST down - CSU 0, USU 0 0.82 45.8% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 28

Started Drive at: CSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.31 - 3.49 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.8%

Win Probability (After): 47.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 8:47 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at CSU 28) Savon Scarver run for 10 yds to the ColSt 18 for a 1ST down - CSU 0, USU 0 0.56 47.1% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 18

Started Drive at: CSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.87 - 4.31 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.31)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.1%

Win Probability (After): 48.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 8:03 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at CSU 18) Logan Bonner pass intercepted - CSU 0, USU 0 -6.81 49.0% -14.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 64

Started Drive at: CSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.95 - 4.86 = -6.81

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.95)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.0%

Win Probability (After): 34.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:03 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at CSU 36) David Bailey run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 34 - CSU 0, USU 0 -1.10 64.3% -4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 66

Started Drive at: CSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.85 - 1.95 = -1.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.3%

Win Probability (After): 60.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:03 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 12 at CSU 34) David Bailey run for 5 yds to the ColSt 39 - CSU 0, USU 0 -0.31 60.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 61

Started Drive at: CSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.54 - 0.85 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.85)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.3%

Win Probability (After): 60.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:03 ESPN team id 36 (3rd & 7 at CSU 39) Todd Centeio run for 1 yd to the ColSt 40 - CSU 0, USU 0 -1.34 60.3% -4.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 60

Started Drive at: CSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.80 - 0.54 = -1.34

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.3%

Win Probability (After): 56.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:19 ESPN team id 36 (4th & 6 at CSU 40) Ryan Stonehouse punt for 51 yds - CSU 0, USU 0 0.73 55.6% 6.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 91

Started Drive at: CSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - -0.78 = 0.73

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.05)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.6%

Win Probability (After): 62.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 6:19 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 9) Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the UthSt 13 - CSU 0, USU 0 -0.25 40.8% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 87

Started Drive at: USU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.13 - 0.12 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.12)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.8%

Win Probability (After): 39.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 6:19 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 6 at USU 13) Elelyon Noa run for 2 yds to the UthSt 15 - CSU 0, USU 0 -0.42 39.8% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 85

Started Drive at: USU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.55 - -0.13 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.8%

Win Probability (After): 39.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 6:19 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 4 at USU 15) Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 15 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST down - CSU 0, USU 0 2.20 39.0% 6.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 70

Started Drive at: USU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.65 - -0.55 = 2.20

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.55)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.0%

Win Probability (After): 45.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 6:19 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 30) Logan Bonner run for 13 yds to the UthSt 43 for a 1ST down - CSU 0, USU 0 0.70 45.7% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 57

Started Drive at: USU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 1.65 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.65)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.7%

Win Probability (After): 47.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 6:19 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 43) Elelyon Noa run for no gain to the UthSt 43 - CSU 0, USU 0 -0.63 47.2% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: USU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.72 - 2.35 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.2%

Win Probability (After): 45.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 6:19 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 10 at USU 43) Logan Bonner pass complete to Elelyon Noa for no gain to the UthSt 43 - CSU 0, USU 0 -0.96 45.9% -4.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: USU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.76 - 1.72 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.9%

Win Probability (After): 41.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 6:19 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 10 at USU 43) Logan Bonner sacked by Mohamed Kamara for 0 yards to the UthSt 36 - CSU 0, USU 0 -2.04 41.9% -4.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 64

Started Drive at: USU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.28 - 0.76 = -2.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.76)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.9%

Win Probability (After): 37.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 2:48 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 17 at USU 36) Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 45 yds , returns for no gain to the ColSt 35 , returns for no gain to the ColSt 35 - CSU 0, USU 0 -0.68 38.9% -1.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 65

Started Drive at: USU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.96 - -1.28 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.96)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.9%

Win Probability (After): 37.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:48 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at CSU 35) David Bailey run for 16 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST down - CSU 0, USU 0 1.04 61.7% 2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 49

Started Drive at: CSU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.01 - 1.97 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.97)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.7%

Win Probability (After): 64.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:48 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at USU 49) David Bailey run for 5 yds to the UthSt 44 - CSU 0, USU 0 0.03 64.0% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 44

Started Drive at: CSU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.04 - 3.01 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.0%

Win Probability (After): 64.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:48 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 5 at USU 44) David Bailey run for 4 yds to the UthSt 40 - CSU 0, USU 0 0.20 64.0% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 40

Started Drive at: CSU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.24 - 3.04 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.04)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.0%

Win Probability (After): 64.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:48 ESPN team id 36 (3rd & 1 at USU 40) Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST down - CSU 0, USU 0 0.38 64.2% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 37

Started Drive at: CSU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.63 - 3.24 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.24)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.2%

Win Probability (After): 64.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:01 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at USU 37) Jaylen Thomas run for 3 yds to the UthSt 34 - CSU 0, USU 0 -5.58 63.8% -12.3%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 66

Started Drive at: CSU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.92 - 3.66 = -5.58

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.66)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.92)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.8%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 1:01 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 34) Pailate Makakona run for 10 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST down - CSU 0, USU 0 0.55 48.6% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 56

Started Drive at: USU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.54 - 1.99 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.99)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.6%

Win Probability (After): 50.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 1:01 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 44) Pailate Makakona run for 3 yds to the UthSt 47 - CSU 0, USU 0 -0.44 50.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 53

Started Drive at: USU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.10 - 2.54 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.2%

Win Probability (After): 49.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 7 at USU 47) John Gentry run for 13 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST down - CSU 0, USU 0 1.54 49.2% 2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 40

Started Drive at: USU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.62 - 2.09 = 1.54

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.09)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.2%

Win Probability (After): 51.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at CSU 40) BONNER, Logan pass to the right incomplete intended for WRIGHT, Derek thrown to the CSU0. PENALTY CSU Offsides declined CSU Pass Interference on CAMERON, Marshaun enforced 15 yards to the CSU25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - CSU 0, USU 0 0.00 49.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40

Started Drive at: USU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.60 - 3.60 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.60)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.8%

Win Probability (After): 49.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:45 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at CSU 25) Logan Bonner pass complete to Derek Wright for 25 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK) - CSU 0, USU 7 2.63 52.5% 8.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 99

Started Drive at: USU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.37 = 2.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.37)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.5%

Win Probability (After): 60.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:40 ESPN team id 36 (Kickoff at CSU 35) Elliott Nimrod kickoff for 63 yds , Thomas Pannunzio return for 20 yds to the ColSt 22 - CSU 0, USU 7 -0.64 39.8% -0.8%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 78

Started Drive at: CSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.46 - 0.18 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.82)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.8%

Win Probability (After): 39.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:40 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at CSU 22) Todd Centeio pass incomplete - CSU 0, USU 7 -0.60 39.3% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: CSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.56 - 0.03 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.97)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.3%

Win Probability (After): 38.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:40 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 10 at CSU 22) David Bailey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 25 - CSU 0, USU 7 -0.74 38.6% -2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 75

Started Drive at: CSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.30 - -0.56 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.56)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.6%

Win Probability (After): 35.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:40 ESPN team id 36 (3rd & 7 at CSU 25) Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 12 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST down - CSU 0, USU 7 2.51 35.7% 5.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 63

Started Drive at: CSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - -1.30 = 2.51

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.30)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.7%

Win Probability (After): 40.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:40 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at CSU 37) David Bailey run for no gain to the ColSt 37 - CSU 0, USU 7 -0.60 40.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: CSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.61 - 1.21 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.79)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.8%

Win Probability (After): 40.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:40 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 10 at CSU 37) Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 3 yds to the ColSt 40 - CSU 0, USU 7 -0.60 40.2% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 60

Started Drive at: CSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 0.61 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.39)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.2%

Win Probability (After): 39.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:40 ESPN team id 36 (3rd & 7 at CSU 40) Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 20 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST down - CSU 0, USU 7 2.90 39.0% 7.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 40

Started Drive at: CSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 0.02 = 2.90

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.98)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.0%

Win Probability (After): 46.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:40 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at USU 40) Todd Centeio pass incomplete - CSU 0, USU 7 -0.63 46.8% -3.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40

Started Drive at: CSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 2.92 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.08)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.8%

Win Probability (After): 43.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:40 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 10 at USU 40) David Bailey run for a loss of 5 yards to the UthSt 45 - CSU 0, USU 7 -2.06 43.7% -4.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 45

Started Drive at: CSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.23 - 2.29 = -2.06

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.71)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.7%

Win Probability (After): 39.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:02 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at USU 27) Timeout UTAH ST, clock 11:02 - CSU 0, USU 7 0.00 40.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 27

Started Drive at: CSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.23 - 0.23 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.77)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.3%

Win Probability (After): 40.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:02 ESPN team id 36 (3rd & 15 at USU 45) Todd Centeio pass complete to Jordan Kress for 18 yds to the UthSt 27 for a 1ST down - CSU 0, USU 7 3.31 38.0% 9.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 27

Started Drive at: CSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.90 - 0.60 = 3.31

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.40)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.0%

Win Probability (After): 47.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:02 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at USU 27) David Bailey run for 9 yds to the UthSt 18 - CSU 0, USU 7 0.88 47.8% 2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 18

Started Drive at: CSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.78 - 3.90 = 0.88

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.10)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.8%

Win Probability (After): 50.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:02 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 1 at USU 18) David Bailey run for 2 yds to the UthSt 16 for a 1ST down - CSU 0, USU 7 0.02 50.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 16

Started Drive at: CSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.80 - 4.78 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.22)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.3%

Win Probability (After): 50.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:02 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at USU 16) David Bailey run for 1 yd to the UthSt 15 - CSU 0, USU 7 -0.57 50.3% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 15

Started Drive at: CSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.23 - 4.80 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.20)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.3%

Win Probability (After): 49.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:02 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 9 at USU 15) Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 11 yds to the UthSt 4 for a 1ST down - CSU 0, USU 7 1.22 49.2% 2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 4

Started Drive at: CSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.45 - 4.23 = 1.22

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.77)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-1.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 0, USU 7

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.2%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:21 ESPN team id 36 (1st & Goal at USU 4) David Bailey run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) - CSU 7, USU 7 1.13 52.8% 2.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: CSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.87 = 1.13

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 7

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.8%

Win Probability (After): 55.4%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:15 ESPN team id 328 (Kickoff at USU 35) Jonathan Terry kickoff for 59 yds , Deven Thompkins return for 18 yds to the UthSt 24 - CSU 7, USU 7 -1.26 42.0% -3.1%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 76

Started Drive at: USU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.08 - 1.18 = -1.26

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.0%

Win Probability (After): 38.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:15 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 24) Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McGriff for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 23 - CSU 7, USU 7 -1.01 41.7% -3.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 77

Started Drive at: USU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 1.07 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.7%

Win Probability (After): 38.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:15 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 11 at USU 23) Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 34 yds to the ColSt 43 for a 1ST down - CSU 7, USU 7 3.26 38.5% 10.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 43

Started Drive at: USU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.32 - 0.05 = 3.26

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.5%

Win Probability (After): 48.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:15 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at CSU 43) Elelyon Noa run for 5 yds to the ColSt 38 - CSU 7, USU 7 0.11 48.5% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 38

Started Drive at: USU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.42 - 3.32 = 0.11

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.32)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 49.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:15 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 5 at CSU 38) Elelyon Noa run for no gain to the ColSt 38 - CSU 7, USU 7 -0.90 49.0% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 38

Started Drive at: USU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.52 - 3.42 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.42)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.0%

Win Probability (After): 46.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:15 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 5 at CSU 38) Logan Bonner pass incomplete - CSU 7, USU 7 -2.01 46.6% -5.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 38

Started Drive at: USU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.51 - 2.52 = -2.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.52)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.6%

Win Probability (After): 41.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:19 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 5 at CSU 38) Derek Wright 38 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick) - CSU 7, USU 14 6.24 45.7% 13.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 99

Started Drive at: USU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.76 = 6.24

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.76)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.7%

Win Probability (After): 59.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 7:19 ESPN team id 36 (Kickoff at CSU 35) Elliott Nimrod kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - CSU 7, USU 14 0.00 38.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 0.55 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.45)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.6%

Win Probability (After): 38.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:19 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at CSU 25) David Bailey run for 5 yds to the ColSt 30 - CSU 7, USU 14 0.08 38.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 0.55 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.45)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.6%

Win Probability (After): 38.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:19 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 5 at CSU 30) Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 24 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST down - CSU 7, USU 14 2.10 38.5% 4.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 46

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.73 - 0.63 = 2.10

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.37)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.5%

Win Probability (After): 43.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:19 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at USU 46) Todd Centeio pass incomplete - CSU 7, USU 14 -0.50 43.1% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.23 - 2.73 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.27)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.1%

Win Probability (After): 41.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:19 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 10 at USU 46) David Bailey run for 26 yds to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST down - CSU 7, USU 14 2.05 41.3% 8.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 20

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.28 - 2.23 = 2.05

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.77)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.3%

Win Probability (After): 49.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:19 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at USU 20) David Bailey run for 3 yds to the UthSt 17 - CSU 7, USU 14 -0.11 49.9% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 17

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.17 - 4.28 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.72)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.9%

Win Probability (After): 49.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:19 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 7 at USU 17) Todd Centeio pass complete to Justice McCoy for 15 yds to the UthSt 2 for a 1ST down - CSU 7, USU 14 1.25 49.7% 2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 2

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.42 - 4.17 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.83)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-1.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 7, USU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.7%

Win Probability (After): 52.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:11 ESPN team id 36 (1st & Goal at USU 2) David Bailey run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) - CSU 14, USU 14 0.92 54.8% 0.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.08 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-0.92)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.8%

Win Probability (After): 55.7%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:01 ESPN team id 328 (Kickoff at USU 35) Jonathan Terry kickoff for 60 yds , Deven Thompkins return for 54 yds to the ColSt 41 - CSU 14, USU 14 1.28 46.6% 4.5%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 41

Started Drive at: CSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.61 - 1.33 = 1.28

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.33)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.6%

Win Probability (After): 51.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:01 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at CSU 41) Pailate Makakona run for no gain to the ColSt 41 - CSU 14, USU 14 -0.47 52.0% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41

Started Drive at: CSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.01 - 3.49 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.0%

Win Probability (After): 51.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:56 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 18 at CSU 49) Timeout UTAH ST, clock 03:56 - CSU 14, USU 14 0.00 47.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: CSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.01 - 3.01 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.7%

Win Probability (After): 47.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:56 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 10 at CSU 41) Logan Bonner sacked by Manny Jones for 0 yards to the ColSt 49 - CSU 14, USU 14 -1.69 50.9% -5.8%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 49

Started Drive at: CSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 2.94 = -1.69

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.94)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.9%

Win Probability (After): 45.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:56 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 18 at CSU 49) Logan Bonner pass complete to Pailate Makakona for 10 yds to the ColSt 39 - CSU 14, USU 14 -0.42 45.1% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 39

Started Drive at: CSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 1.26 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.26)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.1%

Win Probability (After): 42.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:56 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 8 at CSU 39) BONNER, Logan pass to the right incomplete intended for WRIGHT, Derek thrown to the CSU0. PENALTY CSU Offsides on MCBRIDE, Toby declined CSU Roughing the Passer on PATCHAN, Scott enforced 15 yards from the CSU39 to the CSU24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - CSU 14, USU 14 2.05 42.9% 8.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39

Started Drive at: CSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.88 - 0.83 = 2.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.83)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.9%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 3:56 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at CSU 24) UTAH ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (TEAM) to the ColSt 29 - CSU 14, USU 14 -0.64 54.2% -2.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 29

Started Drive at: CSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.59 - 4.23 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.23)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.2%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:56 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 15 at CSU 29) Logan Bonner sacked by Manny Jones and Scott Patchan for 0 yards to the ColSt 35 - CSU 14, USU 14 -0.90 51.5% -1.9%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 35

Started Drive at: CSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.69 - 3.59 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.59)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.5%

Win Probability (After): 49.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:56 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 21 at CSU 35) Logan Bonner pass incomplete - CSU 14, USU 14 -0.56 49.6% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35

Started Drive at: CSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.14 - 2.69 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.69)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.6%

Win Probability (After): 47.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:35 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 14 at CSU 28) Timeout UTAH ST, clock 01:35 - CSU 14, USU 14 0.00 45.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 28

Started Drive at: CSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.14 - 2.14 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.7%

Win Probability (After): 45.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:35 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 21 at CSU 35) Logan Bonner pass complete to John Gentry for 7 yds to the ColSt 28 - CSU 14, USU 14 -0.02 47.4% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 28

Started Drive at: CSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.90 - 1.91 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.91)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.4%

Win Probability (After): 45.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:30 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 14 at CSU 28) Connor Coles 45 yd FG GOOD - CSU 14, USU 17 1.12 45.4% 9.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 65

Started Drive at: CSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.88 = 1.12

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.88)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.4%

Win Probability (After): 54.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:30 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 10 at CSU 24) BONNER, Logan pass up the middle incomplete intended for BOWLING, Brandon thrown to the CSU10. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on FLOYD, Robert enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the CSU13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - CSU 14, USU 17 1.09 63.7% 3.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 13

Started Drive at: CSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.10 - 3.01 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.01)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.7%

Win Probability (After): 67.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:30 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at CSU 13) Logan Bonner pass incomplete - CSU 14, USU 17 -0.43 67.3% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 13

Started Drive at: CSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.67 - 4.10 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.10)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.3%

Win Probability (After): 66.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:30 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 10 at CSU 13) Elelyon Noa run for no gain to the ColSt 13 - CSU 14, USU 17 -0.60 66.4% -2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 13

Started Drive at: CSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.07 - 3.67 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.67)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.4%

Win Probability (After): 63.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:30 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 10 at CSU 13) Logan Bonner pass incomplete - CSU 14, USU 17 -0.78 63.5% -3.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 13

Started Drive at: CSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.30 - 3.07 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.07)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.5%

Win Probability (After): 60.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:33 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 10 at CSU 13) Connor Coles 30 yd FG GOOD - CSU 14, USU 20 0.53 64.5% 1.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 65

Started Drive at: CSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.47 = 0.53

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.47)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.5%

Win Probability (After): 65.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:25 ESPN team id 36 (Kickoff at CSU 35) Elliott Nimrod kickoff for 65 yds , Thomas Pannunzio return for 24 yds to the ColSt 24 - CSU 14, USU 20 -0.22 40.1% -1.0%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 76

Started Drive at: CSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.30 - 0.22 = -0.22

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.78)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.1%

Win Probability (After): 39.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 328 (Kickoff at USU 35) Jonathan Terry kickoff for 64 yds , Deven Thompkins return for 19 yds to the UthSt 20 - CSU 14, USU 20 -1.30 70.2% -2.5%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 1.32 = -1.30

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.32)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.2%

Win Probability (After): 67.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 20) Elelyon Noa run for 13 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST down - CSU 14, USU 20 0.79 70.0% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 67

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.90 - 1.11 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.11)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.0%

Win Probability (After): 70.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 33) Elelyon Noa run for 7 yds to the UthSt 40 - CSU 14, USU 20 0.53 70.6% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 60

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 1.90 = 0.53

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.90)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.6%

Win Probability (After): 72.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 3 at USU 40) Elelyon Noa run for 5 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST down - CSU 14, USU 20 0.18 72.2% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 55

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.61 - 2.43 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.43)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.2%

Win Probability (After): 72.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 45) BONNER, Logan pass up the middle incomplete intended for WRIGHT, Derek thrown to the CSU15. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on CAMERON, Marshaun enforced 15 yards to the CSU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - CSU 14, USU 20 1.03 72.5% 2.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 40

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.64 - 2.61 = 1.03

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.61)

Score Difference (End): 6 (9.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.5%

Win Probability (After): 74.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at CSU 40) Elelyon Noa run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 42 - CSU 14, USU 20 -1.31 74.5% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 42

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.33 - 3.64 = -1.31

Score Difference (Before): 6 (9.64)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.5%

Win Probability (After): 72.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 12 at CSU 42) Logan Bonner pass incomplete - CSU 14, USU 20 -1.11 72.3% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 42

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.22 - 2.33 = -1.11

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.33)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.3%

Win Probability (After): 70.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 12 at CSU 42) Logan Bonner pass complete to Elelyon Noa for 8 yds to the ColSt 34 - CSU 14, USU 20 -0.20 70.7% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 34

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 1.22 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.22)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 20

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.7%

Win Probability (After): 71.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 4 at CSU 34) Elelyon Noa run for 9 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST down - CSU 14, USU 20 3.19 71.2% 4.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 25

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.20 - 1.01 = 3.19

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.01)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 20

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.2%

Win Probability (After): 75.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at CSU 25) Logan Bonner pass complete to Elelyon Noa for 6 yds to the ColSt 19 - CSU 14, USU 20 0.31 75.9% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 19

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - 4.20 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.20)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 20

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.9%

Win Probability (After): 77.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 4 at CSU 19) COLORADO ST Penalty, Targeting Roughing the Passer on AMINA, Bam enforced half the distance from the goal ( Yards) to the ColSt 9 for a 1ST down - CSU 14, USU 20 0.48 77.3% 0.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 9

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.99 - 4.52 = 0.48

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.52)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 20

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.3%

Win Probability (After): 78.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 328 (1st & Goal at CSU 9) Logan Bonner sacked by Tywan Francis for 0 yards to the ColSt 23 - CSU 14, USU 20 -2.10 78.2% -5.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 23

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.98 - 5.08 = -2.10

Score Difference (Before): 6 (11.08)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 20

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.2%

Win Probability (After): 73.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & Goal at CSU 23) John Gentry run for 1 yd to the ColSt 22 - CSU 14, USU 20 -0.35 73.2% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 22

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 2.98 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.98)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 20

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.2%

Win Probability (After): 71.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:53 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & Goal at CSU 22) Logan Bonner sacked by Mohamed Kamara and Troy Golden for 0 yards to the ColSt 25 - CSU 14, USU 20 -1.40 71.9% -0.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 25

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.23 - 2.63 = -1.40

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.63)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 20

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.9%

Win Probability (After): 71.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:23 ESPN team id 328 (4th & Goal at CSU 25) Connor Coles 42 yd FG GOOD - CSU 14, USU 23 1.02 69.8% 4.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 65

Started Drive at: USU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.98 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.98)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.8%

Win Probability (After): 74.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:23 ESPN team id 36 (Kickoff at CSU 35) Elliott Nimrod kickoff for 46 yds - CSU 14, USU 23 0.00 29.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 0.20 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.80)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.1%

Win Probability (After): 29.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:23 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at CSU 25) David Bailey run for 9 yds to the ColSt 34 - CSU 14, USU 23 1.26 29.1% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - 0.20 = 1.26

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.80)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.1%

Win Probability (After): 30.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:23 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 1 at CSU 34) David Bailey run for 1 yd to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST down - CSU 14, USU 23 -0.25 30.7% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 65

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 1.46 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.54)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.7%

Win Probability (After): 30.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:23 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at CSU 35) David Bailey run for 6 yds to the ColSt 41 - CSU 14, USU 23 0.26 30.3% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 59

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - 1.21 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.79)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.3%

Win Probability (After): 31.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:23 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 4 at CSU 41) run for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 36 - CSU 14, USU 23 -1.63 31.6% -3.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 64

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.17 - 1.46 = -1.63

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.54)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.6%

Win Probability (After): 27.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:23 ESPN team id 36 (3rd & 9 at CSU 36) Todd Centeio run for 3 yds to the ColSt 39 - CSU 14, USU 23 -1.20 27.8% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 61

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.37 - -0.17 = -1.20

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-9.17)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-10.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.8%

Win Probability (After): 26.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:10 ESPN team id 36 (4th & 6 at CSU 39) Ryan Stonehouse punt for 55 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 3 yds to the UthSt 9 - CSU 14, USU 23 0.61 25.1% 0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 91

Started Drive at: CSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.84 - -1.45 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-10.45)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.84)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.1%

Win Probability (After): 25.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:10 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 9) Pailate Makakona run for 3 yds to the UthSt 12 - CSU 14, USU 23 -0.47 74.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 88

Started Drive at: USU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 0.84 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 9 (9.84)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.2%

Win Probability (After): 74.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:10 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 7 at USU 12) Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 30 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST down - CSU 14, USU 23 2.31 74.0% 4.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 58

Started Drive at: USU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.69 - 0.38 = 2.31

Score Difference (Before): 9 (9.38)

Score Difference (End): 9 (11.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.0%

Win Probability (After): 78.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:10 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 42) UTAH ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Deven Thompkins) to the UthSt 27 - CSU 14, USU 23 -1.02 78.3% -4.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 73

Started Drive at: USU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.67 - 2.69 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): 9 (11.69)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.3%

Win Probability (After): 74.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:10 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 27) Pailate Makakona run for no gain to the UthSt 27 - CSU 14, USU 23 -0.72 74.5% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: USU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.27 - 1.99 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.99)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.5%

Win Probability (After): 73.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:10 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 10 at USU 27) Logan Bonner pass incomplete - CSU 14, USU 23 -1.03 73.9% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: USU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - 1.27 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.27)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.9%

Win Probability (After): 72.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:10 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 10 at USU 27) Logan Bonner sacked by Cam'Ron Carter for 0 yards to the UthSt 20 - CSU 14, USU 23 -1.73 72.9% -2.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 80

Started Drive at: USU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.49 - 0.24 = -1.73

Score Difference (Before): 9 (9.24)

Score Difference (End): 9 (7.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.9%

Win Probability (After): 70.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:07 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 17 at USU 20) Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 41 yds - CSU 14, USU 23 0.19 72.2% -2.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 61

Started Drive at: USU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.27 - -1.46 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): 9 (7.54)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.73)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.2%

Win Probability (After): 70.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 5:07 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at CSU 39) Todd Centeio pass incomplete - CSU 14, USU 23 -0.58 29.4% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: CSU 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 1.24 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.76)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.4%

Win Probability (After): 28.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:07 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 10 at CSU 39) David Bailey run for 2 yds to the ColSt 41 - CSU 14, USU 23 -0.57 28.6% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 59

Started Drive at: CSU 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.10 - 0.66 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.34)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.6%

Win Probability (After): 26.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:07 ESPN team id 36 (3rd & 8 at CSU 41) Todd Centeio pass incomplete - CSU 14, USU 23 -1.50 26.3% -4.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59

Started Drive at: CSU 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.40 - 0.10 = -1.50

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.90)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-10.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.3%

Win Probability (After): 21.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:18 ESPN team id 36 (4th & 8 at CSU 41) Ryan Stonehouse punt for 54 yds - CSU 14, USU 23 0.83 21.4% 3.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 95

Started Drive at: CSU 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.60 - -1.43 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-10.43)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.60)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.4%

Win Probability (After): 24.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 4:18 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 5) Elelyon Noa run for 18 yds to the UthSt 23 for a 1ST down - CSU 14, USU 23 1.07 75.0% 4.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 95 -> 77

Started Drive at: USU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.69 - 0.62 = 1.07

Score Difference (Before): 9 (9.62)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 1 play, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.0%

Win Probability (After): 79.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:18 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 23) Logan Bonner pass incomplete - CSU 14, USU 23 -0.59 79.2% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77

Started Drive at: USU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 1.69 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.69)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.2%

Win Probability (After): 77.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:18 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 10 at USU 23) Logan Bonner pass complete to Justin McGriff for 7 yds to the UthSt 30 - CSU 14, USU 23 0.09 77.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 70

Started Drive at: USU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.19 - 1.10 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.10)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.6%

Win Probability (After): 77.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:18 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 3 at USU 30) Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 9 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST down - CSU 14, USU 23 1.38 77.5% 4.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 61

Started Drive at: USU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 1.19 = 1.38

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.19)

Score Difference (End): 9 (11.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.5%

Win Probability (After): 82.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:18 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 39) Logan Bonner sacked by Scott Patchan for 0 yards to the UthSt 37 - CSU 14, USU 23 -0.96 82.3% -3.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 63

Started Drive at: USU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.61 - 2.57 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): 9 (11.57)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.3%

Win Probability (After): 78.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:18 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 12 at USU 37) Elelyon Noa run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 35 - CSU 14, USU 23 -1.12 78.9% -5.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 65

Started Drive at: USU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.49 - 1.61 = -1.12

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.61)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.9%

Win Probability (After): 73.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:18 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 14 at USU 35) Logan Bonner sacked by Toby McBride for 0 yards to the UthSt 30 - CSU 14, USU 23 -1.49 73.5% -1.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 70

Started Drive at: USU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.00 - 0.49 = -1.49

Score Difference (Before): 9 (9.49)

Score Difference (End): 9 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.5%

Win Probability (After): 72.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:43 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 19 at USU 30) Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 41 yds - CSU 14, USU 23 0.36 75.3% -3.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 71

Started Drive at: USU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.59 - -0.95 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): 9 (8.05)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.41)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.3%

Win Probability (After): 72.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 0:43 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at CSU 29) David Bailey run for 1 yd to the ColSt 30 - CSU 14, USU 23 -0.66 23.5% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 70

Started Drive at: CSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 0.79 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.21)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.5%

Win Probability (After): 22.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 9 at CSU 30) David Bailey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 33 - CSU 14, USU 23 -0.30 20.9% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 67

Started Drive at: CSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - 0.12 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.88)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.9%

Win Probability (After): 19.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 36 (3rd & 6 at CSU 33) Todd Centeio pass complete to Dante Wright for 15 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST down - CSU 14, USU 23 2.28 21.1% 7.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 52

Started Drive at: CSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.06 - -0.22 = 2.28

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-9.22)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-6.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.1%

Win Probability (After): 28.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at CSU 48) David Bailey run for 7 yds to the UthSt 45 - CSU 14, USU 23 0.52 28.9% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 45

Started Drive at: CSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 2.06 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.94)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-6.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.9%

Win Probability (After): 30.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 3 at USU 45) Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 4 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST down - CSU 14, USU 23 0.31 30.1% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 41

Started Drive at: CSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.89 - 2.58 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.42)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-6.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.1%

Win Probability (After): 30.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at USU 41) Todd Centeio pass incomplete - CSU 14, USU 23 -0.59 30.4% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41

Started Drive at: CSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.30 - 2.89 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.11)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-6.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.4%

Win Probability (After): 29.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 10 at USU 41) Jaylen Thomas run for 5 yds to the UthSt 36 - CSU 14, USU 23 -0.30 29.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 36

Started Drive at: CSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 2.30 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.70)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.1%

Win Probability (After): 28.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 36 (3rd & 5 at USU 36) Todd Centeio pass incomplete - CSU 14, USU 23 -1.87 28.7% -6.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: CSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 2.00 = -1.87

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.00)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.7%

Win Probability (After): 22.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:35 ESPN team id 36 (4th & 5 at USU 36) Todd Centeio run for 1 yd to the UthSt 35 - CSU 14, USU 23 -2.78 21.0% -3.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 65

Started Drive at: CSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.46 - 0.32 = -2.78

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.68)

Score Difference (End): 9 (11.46)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.0%

Win Probability (After): 17.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 12:35 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 35) John Gentry run for 2 yds to the UthSt 37 - CSU 14, USU 23 -0.55 88.7% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 63

Started Drive at: USU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 2.38 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): 9 (11.38)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.7%

Win Probability (After): 88.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:35 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 8 at USU 37) John Gentry run for 1 yd to the UthSt 38 - CSU 14, USU 23 -0.78 88.2% -4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 62

Started Drive at: USU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.05 - 1.83 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.83)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.2%

Win Probability (After): 84.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:35 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 7 at USU 38) BONNER, Logan pass to the right complete for 6 yards to THOMPKINS, Deven caught at the USU44 and advanced to the USU44 (PANNUNZIO, Thomas). PENALTY Before the snap, CSU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the USU38 to the USU43. NO PLAY (replay the down). - CSU 14, USU 23 0.90 84.2% 4.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 57

Started Drive at: USU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.94 - 1.05 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.05)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.2%

Win Probability (After): 88.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:35 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 2 at USU 43) John Gentry run for 1 yd to the UthSt 44 - CSU 14, USU 23 -1.37 88.2% -5.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 56

Started Drive at: USU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.57 - 1.94 = -1.37

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.94)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.2%

Win Probability (After): 83.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:47 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 1 at USU 44) Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 46 yds , Thomas Pannunzio returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 9 - CSU 14, USU 23 -0.34 87.2% -5.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 91

Started Drive at: USU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.33 - 0.67 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 9 (9.67)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.33)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.2%

Win Probability (After): 82.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:47 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at CSU 9) David Bailey run for 6 yds to the ColSt 15 - CSU 14, USU 23 0.10 14.8% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 85

Started Drive at: CSU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - -0.18 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-9.18)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.8%

Win Probability (After): 15.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:47 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 4 at CSU 15) UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Marcus Moore) to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST down - CSU 14, USU 23 1.60 15.4% 5.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 66

Started Drive at: CSU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - -0.07 = 1.60

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-9.07)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.4%

Win Probability (After): 21.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:47 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at CSU 34) Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 43 yds to the UthSt 23 for a 1ST down - CSU 14, USU 23 2.67 21.2% 9.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 23

Started Drive at: CSU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.19 - 1.53 = 2.67

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.47)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-4.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.2%

Win Probability (After): 30.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:47 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at USU 23) David Bailey run for 1 yd to the UthSt 22 - CSU 14, USU 23 -0.35 30.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 22

Started Drive at: CSU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.84 - 4.19 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-4.81)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-5.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.5%

Win Probability (After): 30.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:47 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 9 at USU 22) Todd Centeio pass incomplete - CSU 14, USU 23 -0.73 30.0% -5.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: CSU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 3.84 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-5.16)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-5.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.0%

Win Probability (After): 25.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:47 ESPN team id 36 (3rd & 9 at USU 22) Todd Centeio pass incomplete - CSU 14, USU 23 -1.06 25.0% -3.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: CSU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.05 - 3.11 = -1.06

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-5.89)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-6.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 14, USU 23

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.0%

Win Probability (After): 21.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:05 ESPN team id 36 (4th & 9 at USU 22) Cayden Camper 40 yd FG GOOD - CSU 17, USU 23 0.94 18.2% 12.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 65

Started Drive at: CSU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.06 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.94)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 23

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.2%

Win Probability (After): 30.5%

Away Score: 14 (17) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:05 ESPN team id 328 (Kickoff at USU 35) Jonathan Terry kickoff for 57 yds - CSU 17, USU 23 0.69 78.9% 2.7%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: USU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - 1.28 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.28)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 23

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.9%

Win Probability (After): 81.6%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:05 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 35) Logan Bonner pass incomplete - CSU 17, USU 23 -0.60 81.6% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: USU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.37 - 1.97 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.97)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 23

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.6%

Win Probability (After): 78.7%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:05 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 10 at USU 35) Elelyon Noa run for 1 yd to the UthSt 36 - CSU 17, USU 23 -0.81 78.7% -2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 64

Started Drive at: USU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 1.37 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.37)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 23

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.7%

Win Probability (After): 76.0%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:05 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 9 at USU 36) Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 9 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST down - CSU 17, USU 23 1.86 76.0% 7.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 55

Started Drive at: USU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.41 - 0.55 = 1.86

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.55)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 23

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.0%

Win Probability (After): 83.1%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:05 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 45) COLORADO ST Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) to the 50 yard line - CSU 17, USU 23 0.53 83.1% 0.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 50

Started Drive at: USU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.94 - 2.41 = 0.53

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.41)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 23

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.1%

Win Probability (After): 83.4%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:05 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 5 at 50) Elelyon Noa run for 6 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST down - CSU 17, USU 23 0.11 83.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 44

Started Drive at: USU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.06 - 2.94 = 0.11

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.94)

Score Difference (End): 6 (9.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 23

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.4%

Win Probability (After): 83.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:05 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at CSU 44) Logan Bonner pass complete to Carson Terrell for 20 yds to the ColSt 24 for a 1ST down - CSU 17, USU 23 1.17 83.5% 2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 24

Started Drive at: USU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.22 - 3.06 = 1.17

Score Difference (Before): 6 (9.06)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 23

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.5%

Win Probability (After): 85.9%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:05 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at CSU 24) BONNER, Logan pass up the middle incomplete intended for BOWLING, Brandon thrown to the CSU10. PENALTY CSU Offsides on FRANCIS, Tywan enforced 5 yards from the CSU24 to the CSU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - CSU 17, USU 23 0.67 85.9% 2.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 19

Started Drive at: USU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.90 - 4.22 = 0.67

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.22)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 23

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.9%

Win Probability (After): 88.1%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:05 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 5 at CSU 19) Elelyon Noa run for no gain to the ColSt 19 - CSU 17, USU 23 -0.48 88.1% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: USU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.41 - 4.90 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.90)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 23

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.1%

Win Probability (After): 86.0%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:05 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 5 at CSU 19) Elelyon Noa run for 3 yds to the ColSt 16 - CSU 17, USU 23 -0.05 86.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 16

Started Drive at: USU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.36 - 4.41 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.41)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 23

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.0%

Win Probability (After): 85.6%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:07 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 3 at CSU 17) Timeout UTAH ST, clock 05:07 - CSU 17, USU 23 0.00 90.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: USU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.36 - 4.36 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.36)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 23

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.3%

Win Probability (After): 90.3%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:07 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 2 at CSU 16) Elelyon Noa run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 17 - CSU 17, USU 23 -1.62 91.1% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 17

Started Drive at: USU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.56 - 4.18 = -1.62

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.18)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 23

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.1%

Win Probability (After): 89.8%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 23 (23)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:03 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 3 at CSU 17) Connor Coles 34 yd FG GOOD - CSU 17, USU 26 0.44 89.8% 4.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 65

Started Drive at: USU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.56 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.56)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 26

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.8%

Win Probability (After): 94.6%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 23 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:52 ESPN team id 36 (Kickoff at CSU 35) Elliott Nimrod kickoff for 65 yds , Thomas Pannunzio return for 27 yds to the ColSt 27 - CSU 17, USU 26 -0.50 10.7% -1.3%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 73

Started Drive at: CSU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.37 - 0.87 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.13)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 26

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.7%

Win Probability (After): 9.4%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:52 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at CSU 27) Todd Centeio pass complete to David Bailey for 11 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST down - CSU 17, USU 26 0.81 10.8% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 62

Started Drive at: CSU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.89 - 1.08 = 0.81

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.92)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 26

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.8%

Win Probability (After): 11.3%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:52 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at CSU 38) Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 4 yds to the ColSt 42 - CSU 17, USU 26 -0.16 11.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 58

Started Drive at: CSU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.73 - 1.89 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.11)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 26

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.3%

Win Probability (After): 11.1%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:52 ESPN team id 36 (2nd & 6 at CSU 42) Todd Centeio run for 17 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST down - CSU 17, USU 26 1.35 11.1% 4.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 41

Started Drive at: CSU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.08 - 1.73 = 1.35

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.27)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-5.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 26

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.1%

Win Probability (After): 15.3%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:52 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at USU 41) Todd Centeio pass complete to David Bailey for 28 yds to the UthSt 13 for a 1ST down - CSU 17, USU 26 1.74 15.3% 4.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 13

Started Drive at: CSU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.82 - 3.08 = 1.74

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-5.92)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-4.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 17, USU 26

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.3%

Win Probability (After): 20.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:31 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at USU 13) Todd Centeio pass complete to Gary Williams for 13 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) - CSU 24, USU 26 2.27 17.4% 24.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: CSU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.73 = 2.27

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-4.27)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 24, USU 26

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.4%

Win Probability (After): 42.2%

Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:31 ESPN team id 328 (Kickoff at USU 35) Jonathan Terry kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - CSU 24, USU 26 0.00 70.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.81 - 0.81 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.81)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 24, USU 26

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.2%

Win Probability (After): 70.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:26 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 9 at USU 26) Timeout COLORADO ST, clock 03:26 - CSU 24, USU 26 0.00 71.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.81 - 0.81 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.81)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 24, USU 26

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.6%

Win Probability (After): 71.6%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:26 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 25) Elelyon Noa run for 1 yd to the UthSt 26 - CSU 24, USU 26 -0.42 73.2% -2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.36 - 0.78 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.78)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 24, USU 26

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.2%

Win Probability (After): 70.7%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:26 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 9 at USU 26) Elelyon Noa run for 8 yds to the UthSt 34 - CSU 24, USU 26 0.34 70.7% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 66

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.70 - 0.36 = 0.34

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.36)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 24, USU 26

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.7%

Win Probability (After): 71.6%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:26 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 1 at USU 34) Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST down - CSU 24, USU 26 0.79 71.6% 5.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 62

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.49 - 0.70 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.70)

Score Difference (End): 2 (3.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 24, USU 26

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.6%

Win Probability (After): 76.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:54 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 8 at USU 40) Timeout COLORADO ST, clock 01:54 - CSU 24, USU 26 0.00 85.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.49 - 1.49 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 2 (3.49)

Score Difference (End): 2 (3.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 24, USU 26

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.3%

Win Probability (After): 85.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:54 ESPN team id 328 (1st & 10 at USU 38) Elelyon Noa run for 2 yds to the UthSt 40 - CSU 24, USU 26 -0.27 85.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 60

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.06 - 1.34 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): 2 (3.34)

Score Difference (End): 2 (3.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 24, USU 26

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.3%

Win Probability (After): 85.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:48 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 3 at USU 45) Timeout COLORADO ST, clock 01:48 - CSU 24, USU 26 0.00 84.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.06 - 1.06 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 2 (3.06)

Score Difference (End): 2 (3.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 24, USU 26

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.2%

Win Probability (After): 84.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:48 ESPN team id 328 (2nd & 8 at USU 40) Elelyon Noa run for 5 yds to the UthSt 45 - CSU 24, USU 26 -0.15 85.1% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 55

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 1.02 = -0.15

Score Difference (Before): 2 (3.02)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 24, USU 26

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.1%

Win Probability (After): 83.6%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:57 ESPN team id 328 (4th & 6 at USU 42) Timeout UTAH ST, clock 00:57 - CSU 24, USU 26 0.00 87.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.86)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 24, USU 26

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.4%

Win Probability (After): 87.4%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:57 ESPN team id 328 (3rd & 3 at USU 45) Logan Bonner pass complete to Deven Thompkins for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 42 - CSU 24, USU 26 -0.69 88.9% -9.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 58

Started Drive at: USU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.07 - 0.76 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.76)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 24, USU 26

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.1%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:44 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at USU 39) Todd Centeio pass incomplete - CSU 24, USU 26 -0.17 61.1% -4.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39

Started Drive at: CSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 2.24 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.24)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 24, USU 26

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.1%

Win Probability (After): 56.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:44 ESPN team id 36 (3rd & 10 at USU 39) Todd Centeio pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 15 yds to the UthSt 24 for a 1ST down - CSU 24, USU 26 1.74 40.0% 39.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 24

Started Drive at: CSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 1.70 = 1.74

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.30)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CSU 24, USU 26

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.0%

Win Probability (After): 79.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:01 ESPN team id 36 (1st & 10 at USU 24) Cayden Camper 42 yd FG MISSED - CSU 24, USU 26 -2.28 38.9% 61.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 76

Started Drive at: CSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - 1.94 = -2.28

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.06)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.35)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CSU 24, USU 26

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.9%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2