Nevada 32 @ Fresno State 34

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 4.66 | Odds: FRES -3.5, O/U 64.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 2440 ESPN team id 278
Total Plays 9582
Total EPA 14.167.29
  Offensive EPA 9.34.67
  Special Teams EPA 6.071.07
  Penalty EPA -0.371.56
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA -0.84-0.01
Production ESPN team id 2440 ESPN team id 278
Scrimmage Plays 8268
  Yards 528473
  Yards/Play 6.446.96
  EPA 9.304.67
  EPA/Play 0.110.07
Passes 66 (80%)39 (57%)
  Yards 476268
  Yards/Play 7.216.87
  EPA 13.421.15
  EPA/Play 0.200.03
Rushes 16 (20%)29 (43%)
  Yards 71211
  Yards/Play 4.447.28
  EPA -4.123.51
  EPA/Play -0.260.12
Rushing ESPN team id 2440 ESPN team id 278
Scrimmage Plays 8268
Rushes 16 (20%)29 (43%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 2 (12%)1 (3%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 1 (50%)1 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 4 (25%)3 (10%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 8 (50%)11 (38%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 6 (38%)16 (55%)
OL Line Yards 12.642
  Per Carry 0.791.45
Highlight Yards 29.5107
  Per Rush Opportunity 4.926.69
Explosiveness ESPN team id 2440 ESPN team id 278
Total Plays 9582
Scrimmage Plays 8268
Explosive Plays 6 (7%)2 (3%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 5 (8%)1 (3%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 1 (6%)1 (3%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -9.89-3.16
  EPA/Play -0.13-0.05
  When Passing -2.66-1.37
    EPA/Play -0.04-0.04
  When Rushing -7.23-1.80
    EPA/Play -0.48-0.06
Situational ESPN team id 2440 ESPN team id 278
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 42 (51%)35 (51%)
  When Passing 35 (53%)21 (54%)
  When Rushing 7 (44%)14 (48%)
  On Standard Downs 27 (52%)29 (58%)
  On Passing Downs 15 (50%)6 (33%)
  On Early Downs 32 (50%)32 (56%)
  On Late Downs 10 (56%)3 (27%)
  During "Middle 8" 7 (54%)7 (70%)
Early Downs 6457
  First Downs Created 16 (25%)17 (30%)
  EPA 2.7311.64
  EPA/Play 0.040.20
  Passes 52 (81%)32 (56%)
  Rushes 12 (19%)25 (44%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 27 (52%)19 (59%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 5 (42%)13 (52%)
"Middle 8" Plays 1310
  EPA -0.963.44
  EPA/play -0.070.34
  Passes 8 (62%)8 (80%)
  Rushes 5 (38%)2 (20%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 4 (50%)5 (63%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 3 (60%)2 (100%)
Drives ESPN team id 2440 ESPN team id 278
Total 1413
Avg Starting Field Position Own 29Own 22
Plays/Drive 7.486.72
Yards/Drive 47.5547.19
Available Yards % 67%61%
Defensive ESPN team id 2440 ESPN team id 278
Scrimmage Plays 6882
Stop Rate 38%35%
Havoc Plays Created 6 (9%)16 (20%)
  Passing 4 (10%)14 (21%)
  Rushing 2 (7%)2 (13%)
TFLs Generated 412
  Passing 210
  Rushing 22
Sacks Generated 1 (3%)5 (8%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 01
Fumbles Forced 10
Turnovers ESPN team id 2440 ESPN team id 278
Turnovers 31
  Fumbles 22
  Fumbles Lost 21
  Fumbles Recovered 01
  Interceptions 10
Turnover Margin -22
Expected Turnovers 2.22.0
Expected Turnover Margin -0.20.2
Turnover Luck (pts) -8.98.9
Special Teams ESPN team id 2440 ESPN team id 278
Total Plays 13 14
Total EPA 6.07 1.07
  Field Goal EPA 1.29 2.65
  Punting EPA 1.17 -1.7
  Kickoff Return EPA 3.61 0.11

Nevada [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Carson Strong 49/61, 476 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT, 5 Scks, 61.7 xQBR 7.21 0.20 13.42 53% 29.0%
Rush attempts
Carson Strong 1 carry, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.26 -0.26 0% 0.0%
Toa Taua 12 carries, 62 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.17 -0.04 -0.51 50% -3.0%
Devonte Lee 3 carries, 6 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 2.00 -1.12 -3.35 33% -5.0%
Pass targets
Romeo Doubs 19 catches (20 targets), 203 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.68 0.80 16.08 80% 35.0%
Cole Turner 8 catches (11 targets), 105 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.12 0.76 8.34 64% 8.0%
Justin Lockhart 6 catches (8 targets), 83 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.83 0.84 6.71 62% 22.0%
Tory Horton 6 catches (8 targets), 49 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.17 0.17 1.34 50% 2.0%
Toa Taua 3 catches (3 targets), 24 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 0.08 0.25 33% 0.0%
Melquan Stovall 2 catches (2 targets), 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.50 -0.59 -1.18 0% -2.0%
Devonte Lee 5 catches (6 targets), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.80 -0.78 -4.66 33% -10.0%

Fresno State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Jake Haener 26/38, 268 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 46.0 xQBR 6.87 0.03 1.15 54% 10.0%
Rush attempts
Ronnie Rivers 3 carries, 80 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 26.67 2.22 6.65 100% 17.0%
Jordan Mims 23 carries, 134 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.83 0.02 0.47 48% 2.0%
Jalen Cropper 1 carry, 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.53 -0.53 0% -1.0%
Jake Haener 2 carries, -4 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) -2.00 -1.54 -3.07 0% -3.0%
Pass targets
Keric Wheatfall 5 catches (5 targets), 84 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.80 1.20 6.01 100% 21.0%
Zane Pope 4 catches (4 targets), 59 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.75 1.08 4.32 100% 7.0%
Erik Brooks 3 catches (3 targets), 33 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.00 1.14 3.42 100% 7.0%
Jordan Mims 4 catches (5 targets), 20 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.17 0.87 40% 0.0%
Raymond Pauwels Jr. 1 catch (2 targets), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 -0.13 -0.26 50% -1.0%
Josh Kelly 2 catches (6 targets), 21 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.50 -0.42 -2.55 17% -5.0%
Jalen Cropper 7 catches (8 targets), 46 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 6.57 -0.54 -4.29 62% -7.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 11:01 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 20) Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 4 yds Jalen Cropper fumbled, forced by Jordan Lee, recovered by Nevad Lawson Hall - NEV 3, FRES 14 -6.78 86.5% -11.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 12

Started Drive at: FRES 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.76 - 2.02 = -6.78

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.02)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-6.24)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 3, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.5%

Win Probability (After): 75.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:08 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 36) Ronnie Rivers run for 64 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) - NEV 3, FRES 7 5.31 49.1% 14.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 99

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.69 = 5.31

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.31)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.1%

Win Probability (After): 63.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:53 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 42) Carson Strong sacked by David Perales for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard line Carson Strong fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Evan Williams , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard line - NEV 26, FRES 34 -4.14 7.7% -6.1%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 50

Started Drive at: NEV 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.74 - 2.40 = -4.14

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.60)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.74)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.7%

Win Probability (After): 1.6%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:42 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 20 at FRES 43) Strong, Carson pass incomplete to Horton, Tory, PENALTY FS pass interference 15 yards to the FS28, 1ST DOWN NEVADA, NO PLAY. - NEV 16, FRES 28 3.63 10.5% 5.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 28

Started Drive at: NEV 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.83 - 0.20 = 3.63

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.80)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-8.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.5%

Win Probability (After): 15.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:02 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 10 at FRES 12) Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - NEV 32, FRES 34 3.62 5.8% -5.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: NEV 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 2.38 = 3.62

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.62)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 32, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 26 (32) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:50 ESPN team id 2440 (4th & 1 at FRES 33) Devonte Lee run for no gain to the FrsSt 33 - NEV 10, FRES 14 -3.49 38.8% -7.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 67

Started Drive at: NEV 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.38 - 2.11 = -3.49

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.89)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.38)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.8%

Win Probability (After): 31.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 13:15 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 11 at FRES 44) Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 13 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST down - NEV 10, FRES 21 3.24 14.8% 7.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 31

Started Drive at: NEV 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 0.22 = 3.24

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.78)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.8%

Win Probability (After): 22.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:00 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 11 at FRES 23) Carson Strong pass intercepted DaRon Bland return for 6 yds to the FrsSt 9 - NEV 3, FRES 7 -3.22 40.0% -3.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 91

Started Drive at: NEV 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.57 - 2.65 = -3.22

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.35)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.57)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.0%

Win Probability (After): 36.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:46 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 9 at FRES 30) Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 30 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - NEV 16, FRES 21 3.14 17.5% 14.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 99

Started Drive at: NEV 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 2.86 = 3.14

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.14)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.5%

Win Probability (After): 31.7%

Away Score: 10 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:42 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 3 at NEV 39) Toa Taua run for 28 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST down - NEV 16, FRES 28 3.11 11.4% 3.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 33

Started Drive at: NEV 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.52 - 0.41 = 3.11

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.59)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-8.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.4%

Win Probability (After): 15.2%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 5:08 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 36) Ronnie Rivers run for 64 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) - NEV 3, FRES 7 5.31 49.1% 14.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 99

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.69 = 5.31

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.31)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.1%

Win Probability (After): 63.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:46 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 9 at FRES 30) Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 30 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - NEV 16, FRES 21 3.14 17.5% 14.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 99

Started Drive at: NEV 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 2.86 = 3.14

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.14)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.5%

Win Probability (After): 31.7%

Away Score: 10 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:01 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 20) Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 4 yds Jalen Cropper fumbled, forced by Jordan Lee, recovered by Nevad Lawson Hall - NEV 3, FRES 14 -6.78 86.5% -11.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 12

Started Drive at: FRES 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.76 - 2.02 = -6.78

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.02)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-6.24)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 3, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.5%

Win Probability (After): 75.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 13:21 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 1 at NEV 11) Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 11 yds for a TD NEVADA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Devonte Lee) declined, (Cesar Silva KICK) - NEV 10, FRES 21 1.50 79.8% 9.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 99

Started Drive at: FRES 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.50 = 1.50

Score Difference (Before): 4 (9.50)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.8%

Win Probability (After): 88.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:37 ESPN team id 278 (4th & 7 at NEV 29) Cesar Silva 47 yd FG GOOD - NEV 23, FRES 31 1.47 76.3% 9.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 65

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.53 = 1.47

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.53)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 31

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.3%

Win Probability (After): 85.3%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 28 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 10:10 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & Goal at FRES 2) Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) - NEV 10, FRES 14 0.87 27.1% 8.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: FRES 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.13 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-4.87)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.1%

Win Probability (After): 35.9%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:56 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 11) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 11 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) - NEV 23, FRES 28 2.07 17.3% 7.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 99

Started Drive at: NEV 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.93 = 2.07

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-7.07)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 93 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.3%

Win Probability (After): 25.1%

Away Score: 16 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:15 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 11 at FRES 44) Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 13 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST down - NEV 10, FRES 21 3.24 14.8% 7.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 31

Started Drive at: NEV 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 0.22 = 3.24

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.78)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.8%

Win Probability (After): 22.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:50 ESPN team id 2440 (4th & 1 at FRES 33) Devonte Lee run for no gain to the FrsSt 33 - NEV 10, FRES 14 -3.49 38.8% -7.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 67

Started Drive at: NEV 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.38 - 2.11 = -3.49

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.89)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.38)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.8%

Win Probability (After): 31.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 12:31 ESPN team id 2440 (4th & 13 at NEV 49) Julian Diaz punt for 50 yds, downed at the FrsSt 1 - NEV 0, FRES 0 1.32 41.1% 7.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 99

Started Drive at: NEV 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - -0.79 = 1.32

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.79)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.53)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.1%

Win Probability (After): 48.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 5:37 ESPN team id 2440 (4th & 11 at FRES 15) Brandon Talton 32 yd FG GOOD - NEV 3, FRES 0 0.41 48.4% 2.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 65

Started Drive at: NEV 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.59 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.59)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.4%

Win Probability (After): 50.9%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 5:08 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 36) Ronnie Rivers run for 64 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) - NEV 3, FRES 7 5.31 49.1% 14.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 99

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.69 = 5.31

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.31)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.1%

Win Probability (After): 63.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:11 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & Goal at NEV 1) Jordan Mims run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) - NEV 3, FRES 14 0.74 76.4% 5.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: FRES 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.26 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): 4 (10.26)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 91 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.4%

Win Probability (After): 81.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:10 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & Goal at FRES 2) Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) - NEV 10, FRES 14 0.87 27.1% 8.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: FRES 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.13 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-4.87)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.1%

Win Probability (After): 35.9%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 13:21 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 1 at NEV 11) Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 11 yds for a TD NEVADA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Devonte Lee) declined, (Cesar Silva KICK) - NEV 10, FRES 21 1.50 79.8% 9.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 99

Started Drive at: FRES 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.50 = 1.50

Score Difference (Before): 4 (9.50)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.8%

Win Probability (After): 88.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:46 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 9 at FRES 30) Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 30 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - NEV 16, FRES 21 3.14 17.5% 14.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 99

Started Drive at: NEV 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 2.86 = 3.14

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.14)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.5%

Win Probability (After): 31.7%

Away Score: 10 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:50 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 6 at NEV 7) Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 7 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) - NEV 16, FRES 28 1.86 82.8% 6.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99

Started Drive at: FRES 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.14 = 1.86

Score Difference (Before): 5 (10.14)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 88 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.8%

Win Probability (After): 89.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:56 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 11) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 11 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) - NEV 23, FRES 28 2.07 17.3% 7.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 99

Started Drive at: NEV 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.93 = 2.07

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-7.07)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 93 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.3%

Win Probability (After): 25.1%

Away Score: 16 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:37 ESPN team id 278 (4th & 7 at NEV 29) Cesar Silva 47 yd FG GOOD - NEV 23, FRES 31 1.47 76.3% 9.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 65

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.53 = 1.47

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.53)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 31

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.3%

Win Probability (After): 85.3%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 28 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:48 ESPN team id 278 (4th & 3 at NEV 25) Cesar Silva 43 yd FG GOOD - NEV 23, FRES 34 1.19 93.7% -0.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 65

Started Drive at: FRES 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.81 = 1.19

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.81)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.7%

Win Probability (After): 93.2%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 31 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:21 ESPN team id 2440 (4th & 5 at FRES 20) Brandon Talton 38 yd FG GOOD - NEV 26, FRES 34 0.87 5.6% 2.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 65

Started Drive at: NEV 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.13 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.87)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 8.1%

Away Score: 23 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:02 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 10 at FRES 12) Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - NEV 32, FRES 34 3.62 5.8% -5.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: NEV 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 2.38 = 3.62

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.62)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 32, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 26 (32) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2440 (Kickoff at NEV 35) Cesar Silva kickoff for 58 yds , Jamaal Bell return for 27 yds to the Nevad 34 - NEV 0, FRES 0 0.91 41.6% 1.3%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 66

Started Drive at: NEV 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.77 - 0.86 = 0.91

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.6%

Win Probability (After): 42.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 34) Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 35 - NEV 0, FRES 0 -0.63 46.4% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 65

Started Drive at: NEV 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 1.77 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.4%

Win Probability (After): 45.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 9 at NEV 35) Taua, Toa rush for no gain to the NEVADA35 (GATES, Elijah), PENALTY FS OF 5 yards to the NEVADA40, NO PLAY. - NEV 0, FRES 0 0.79 45.4% 3.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 60

Started Drive at: NEV 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 1.14 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.4%

Win Probability (After): 48.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 4 at NEV 40) Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo Doubs - NEV 0, FRES 0 -0.98 48.5% -3.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: NEV 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 1.93 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.93)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 45.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 4 at NEV 40) Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the Nevad 41 - NEV 0, FRES 0 -1.89 45.2% -5.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 59

Started Drive at: NEV 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.94 - 0.95 = -1.89

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.2%

Win Probability (After): 40.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2440 (4th & 3 at NEV 41) Julian Diaz punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 13 - NEV 0, FRES 0 0.80 40.1% 1.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 87

Started Drive at: NEV 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.14 - -0.94 = 0.80

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.94)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.14)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.1%

Win Probability (After): 41.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 13:22 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 13) Jake Haener run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 15 - NEV 0, FRES 0 -0.77 55.7% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 85

Started Drive at: FRES 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.42 - 0.36 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.36)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.7%

Win Probability (After): 57.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:22 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 8 at FRES 15) Jake Haener pass incomplete - NEV 0, FRES 0 -0.93 54.2% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 85

Started Drive at: FRES 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.12 - -0.19 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.2%

Win Probability (After): 52.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:22 ESPN team id 278 (3rd & 8 at FRES 15) Jake Haener pass incomplete FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declined - NEV 0, FRES 0 -1.20 52.6% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 85

Started Drive at: FRES 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.32 - -1.12 = -1.20

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.12)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 50.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:22 ESPN team id 278 (4th & 8 at FRES 15) Carson King punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Romeo Doubs at the Nevad 37 - NEV 0, FRES 0 0.35 50.8% -1.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 63

Started Drive at: FRES 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.98 - -2.32 = 0.35

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.32)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.98)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.8%

Win Probability (After): 49.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 12:31 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 37) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 15 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST down - NEV 0, FRES 0 1.02 48.8% 3.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 48

Started Drive at: NEV 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.03 - 2.00 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.00)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.8%

Win Probability (After): 52.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:31 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 48) Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 6 yds to the FrsSt 42 - NEV 0, FRES 0 0.19 50.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 42

Started Drive at: NEV 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.22 - 3.03 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.03)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.4%

Win Probability (After): 50.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:31 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 4 at FRES 42) NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding (Romeo Doubs) to the Nevad 48 - NEV 0, FRES 0 -1.70 50.6% -4.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 52

Started Drive at: NEV 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.52 - 3.22 = -1.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.22)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.6%

Win Probability (After): 46.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:31 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 14 at NEV 48) Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 4 yds to the FRESNOST 48 NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding (Romeo Doubs) declined - NEV 0, FRES 0 -0.17 46.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 48

Started Drive at: NEV 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 1.52 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.52)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.5%

Win Probability (After): 46.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:31 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 10 at FRES 48) Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 49 - NEV 0, FRES 0 -2.14 46.7% -5.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 51

Started Drive at: NEV 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.79 - 1.35 = -2.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.7%

Win Probability (After): 41.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:31 ESPN team id 2440 (4th & 13 at NEV 49) Julian Diaz punt for 50 yds, downed at the FrsSt 1 - NEV 0, FRES 0 1.32 41.1% 7.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 99

Started Drive at: NEV 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - -0.79 = 1.32

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.79)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.53)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.1%

Win Probability (After): 48.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:26 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 1) FRESNO ST Penalty, false start ( Yards) to the FrsSt 1 - NEV 0, FRES 0 0.02 52.4% -0.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 99 -> 99

Started Drive at: FRES 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.53 - -0.55 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.55)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.4%

Win Probability (After): 51.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:26 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 1) Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 8 - NEV 0, FRES 0 0.39 52.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 99 -> 92

Started Drive at: FRES 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.16 - -0.55 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.55)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.4%

Win Probability (After): 52.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:26 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 3 at FRES 8) Ronnie Rivers run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST down - NEV 0, FRES 0 0.95 52.4% 2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 83

Started Drive at: FRES 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - -0.16 = 0.95

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.4%

Win Probability (After): 54.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:26 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 17) Jake Haener pass incomplete - NEV 0, FRES 0 -0.76 54.6% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 83

Started Drive at: FRES 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.03 - 0.79 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.79)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.6%

Win Probability (After): 52.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:26 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 10 at FRES 17) Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 23 - NEV 0, FRES 0 -0.22 52.5% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 77

Started Drive at: FRES 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - 0.03 = -0.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.03)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.5%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:04 ESPN team id 278 (3rd & 4 at FRES 23) Timeout FRESNO ST, clock 09:04 - NEV 0, FRES 0 0.00 51.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77

Started Drive at: FRES 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - -0.19 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.0%

Win Probability (After): 51.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:04 ESPN team id 278 (3rd & 4 at FRES 23) Jake Haener pass incomplete - NEV 0, FRES 0 -1.68 52.0% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77

Started Drive at: FRES 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.94 - -0.26 = -1.68

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.26)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.0%

Win Probability (After): 49.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:04 ESPN team id 278 (4th & 4 at FRES 23) Carson King punt for 40 yds, downed at the Nevad 37 - NEV 0, FRES 0 -0.05 49.0% 3.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 63

Started Drive at: FRES 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.00 - -1.94 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.94)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.0%

Win Probability (After): 52.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:50 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 37) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 10 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST down - NEV 0, FRES 0 0.67 47.7% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 53

Started Drive at: NEV 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 1.96 = 0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.96)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.7%

Win Probability (After): 48.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 8:50 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 47) Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 46 - NEV 0, FRES 0 0.55 49.0% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 46

Started Drive at: NEV 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.15 - 2.60 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.60)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.0%

Win Probability (After): 49.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 8:50 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 3 at FRES 46) Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 4 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST down - NEV 0, FRES 0 1.19 49.6% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 27

Started Drive at: NEV 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 3.15 = 1.19

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.15)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.6%

Win Probability (After): 51.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 8:50 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 27) Devonte Lee run for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 32 - NEV 0, FRES 0 -1.50 51.4% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 32

Started Drive at: NEV 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.84 - 4.34 = -1.50

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.4%

Win Probability (After): 49.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 8:50 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 15 at FRES 32) Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 6 yds to the FrsSt 26 - NEV 0, FRES 0 0.12 49.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 26

Started Drive at: NEV 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.96 - 2.84 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.84)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.4%

Win Probability (After): 49.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 8:50 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 9 at FRES 26) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 12 yds to the FrsSt 14 for a 1ST down - NEV 0, FRES 0 2.07 49.3% 4.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 14

Started Drive at: NEV 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.03 - 2.96 = 2.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.96)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.3%

Win Probability (After): 53.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 8:50 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 14) Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 15 - NEV 0, FRES 0 -0.86 53.3% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 15

Started Drive at: NEV 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.17 - 5.03 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.03)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.3%

Win Probability (After): 51.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 8:50 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 11 at FRES 15) Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole Turner - NEV 0, FRES 0 -0.76 51.4% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: NEV 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - 4.17 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.4%

Win Probability (After): 49.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 8:50 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 11 at FRES 15) Carson Strong pass incomplete to Justin Lockhart - NEV 0, FRES 0 -0.84 49.9% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: NEV 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 3.41 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.41)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 0, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.9%

Win Probability (After): 47.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:37 ESPN team id 2440 (4th & 11 at FRES 15) Brandon Talton 32 yd FG GOOD - NEV 3, FRES 0 0.41 48.4% 2.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 65

Started Drive at: NEV 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.59 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.59)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.4%

Win Probability (After): 50.9%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 5:37 ESPN team id 278 (Kickoff at FRES 35) Julian Diaz kickoff for 58 yds - NEV 3, FRES 0 0.00 48.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.72 - 0.72 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.28)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.4%

Win Probability (After): 48.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:36 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 25) Jake Haener pass incomplete - NEV 3, FRES 0 -0.58 48.4% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.14 - 0.72 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.28)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.4%

Win Probability (After): 46.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:36 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 10 at FRES 25) Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 11 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST down - NEV 3, FRES 0 1.56 46.1% 3.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 64

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.70 - 0.14 = 1.56

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.86)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.1%

Win Probability (After): 49.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:08 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 36) Ronnie Rivers run for 64 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) - NEV 3, FRES 7 5.31 49.1% 14.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 99

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.69 = 5.31

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.31)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.1%

Win Probability (After): 63.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:08 ESPN team id 2440 (Kickoff at NEV 35) Jevon Bigelow kickoff for 60 yds , Jamaal Bell return for 33 yds to the Nevad 38 - NEV 3, FRES 7 1.08 37.8% 2.2%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 62

Started Drive at: NEV 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.77 - 0.69 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.31)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.8%

Win Probability (After): 40.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:00 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 38) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 16 yds to the FRESNOST 46 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, OF ( Yards) declined for a 1ST down - NEV 3, FRES 7 1.14 39.8% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 46

Started Drive at: NEV 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 1.77 = 1.14

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.23)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.8%

Win Probability (After): 41.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:00 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 46) Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 45 - NEV 3, FRES 7 -0.64 41.4% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 45

Started Drive at: NEV 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 2.92 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.08)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.4%

Win Probability (After): 40.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:00 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 9 at FRES 45) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 8 yds to the FrsSt 37 - NEV 3, FRES 7 0.76 40.8% 1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 37

Started Drive at: NEV 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.03 - 2.27 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.73)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.8%

Win Probability (After): 42.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:00 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 1 at FRES 37) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 15 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST down - NEV 3, FRES 7 1.44 42.3% 4.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 22

Started Drive at: NEV 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.48 - 3.03 = 1.44

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.97)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.3%

Win Probability (After): 46.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:00 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 22) Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 3 yds to the FrsSt 19 - NEV 3, FRES 7 -0.30 46.4% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 19

Started Drive at: NEV 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.18 - 4.48 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.48)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.4%

Win Probability (After): 45.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:00 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 7 at FRES 19) Carson Strong sacked by David Perales for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 23 - NEV 3, FRES 7 -1.53 45.2% -5.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 23

Started Drive at: NEV 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.65 - 4.18 = -1.53

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.18)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.2%

Win Probability (After): 40.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:00 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 11 at FRES 23) Carson Strong pass intercepted DaRon Bland return for 6 yds to the FrsSt 9 - NEV 3, FRES 7 -3.22 40.0% -3.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 91

Started Drive at: NEV 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.57 - 2.65 = -3.22

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.35)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.57)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.0%

Win Probability (After): 36.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:30 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 9) Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 12 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST down - NEV 3, FRES 7 0.74 64.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 79

Started Drive at: FRES 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - 0.62 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.62)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.3%

Win Probability (After): 64.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:30 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 21) Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 23 - NEV 3, FRES 7 -0.58 65.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 77

Started Drive at: FRES 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - 1.41 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.41)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.5%

Win Probability (After): 65.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:30 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 8 at FRES 23) Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen Cropper, broken up by Mikael Bradford - NEV 3, FRES 7 -0.99 65.3% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77

Started Drive at: FRES 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.16 - 0.82 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.82)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.3%

Win Probability (After): 63.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:30 ESPN team id 278 (3rd & 8 at FRES 23) Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 13 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST down NEVADA Penalty, OF (Berdale Robins) declined for a 1ST down - NEV 3, FRES 7 2.52 63.2% 4.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 64

Started Drive at: FRES 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.36 - -0.16 = 2.52

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.84)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.2%

Win Probability (After): 67.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:30 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 36) Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 42 yds to the Nevad 22 for a 1ST down - NEV 3, FRES 7 2.38 67.7% 6.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 22

Started Drive at: FRES 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.74 - 2.36 = 2.38

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.36)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.7%

Win Probability (After): 73.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:30 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at NEV 22) Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 2 yds to the Nevad 20 - NEV 3, FRES 7 -0.47 73.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 20

Started Drive at: FRES 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.26 - 4.74 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.74)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.8%

Win Probability (After): 73.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:30 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 8 at NEV 20) Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the Nevad 15 - NEV 3, FRES 7 0.21 73.5% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 15

Started Drive at: FRES 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.47 - 4.26 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.26)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.5%

Win Probability (After): 72.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 278 (3rd & 3 at NEV 15) Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 5 yds to the Nevad 10 for a 1ST down - NEV 3, FRES 7 0.80 72.1% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 10

Started Drive at: FRES 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.22 - 4.41 = 0.80

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.41)

Score Difference (End): 4 (9.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 81 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.1%

Win Probability (After): 73.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 278 (1st & Goal at NEV 10) Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 9 yds to the Nevad 1 - NEV 3, FRES 7 1.07 73.7% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 1

Started Drive at: FRES 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.28 - 5.22 = 1.07

Score Difference (Before): 4 (9.22)

Score Difference (End): 4 (10.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.7%

Win Probability (After): 74.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:11 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & Goal at NEV 1) Jordan Mims run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) - NEV 3, FRES 14 0.74 76.4% 5.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: FRES 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.26 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): 4 (10.26)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 91 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.4%

Win Probability (After): 81.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:11 ESPN team id 2440 (Kickoff at NEV 35) Cesar Silva kickoff for 60 yds , Jamaal Bell return for 19 yds to the Nevad 24 - NEV 3, FRES 14 -0.10 19.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 76

Started Drive at: NEV 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.04 - 0.14 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.86)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.3%

Win Probability (After): 19.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:04 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 24) Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 5 yds to the Nevad 29 - NEV 3, FRES 14 0.19 18.5% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 71

Started Drive at: NEV 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.18 - -0.01 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.01)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.5%

Win Probability (After): 19.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:04 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 5 at NEV 29) Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST down - NEV 3, FRES 14 0.98 18.6% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 64

Started Drive at: NEV 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 0.13 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.87)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.6%

Win Probability (After): 20.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:04 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 36) Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 25 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST down - NEV 3, FRES 14 1.82 20.3% 2.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 39

Started Drive at: NEV 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.93 - 1.12 = 1.82

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.88)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.3%

Win Probability (After): 23.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:04 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 39) Carson Strong pass incomplete to Devonte Lee - NEV 3, FRES 14 -0.62 23.0% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39

Started Drive at: NEV 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.31 - 2.93 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.07)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.0%

Win Probability (After): 22.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:04 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 10 at FRES 39) Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 40 - NEV 3, FRES 14 -1.49 22.1% -3.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 40

Started Drive at: NEV 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - 2.31 = -1.49

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.69)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.1%

Win Probability (After): 18.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:04 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 11 at FRES 40) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 2 yds to the FrsSt 38 - NEV 3, FRES 14 -1.32 18.9% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 38

Started Drive at: NEV 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.50 - 0.82 = -1.32

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.18)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.9%

Win Probability (After): 17.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:04 ESPN team id 2440 (4th & 9 at FRES 38) Carson Strong punt for 38 yds for a touchback - NEV 3, FRES 14 -1.32 17.5% -2.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 80

Started Drive at: NEV 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.82 - -0.50 = -1.32

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.50)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.82)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 3, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.5%

Win Probability (After): 15.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:01 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 20) Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 4 yds Jalen Cropper fumbled, forced by Jordan Lee, recovered by Nevad Lawson Hall - NEV 3, FRES 14 -6.78 86.5% -11.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 12

Started Drive at: FRES 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.76 - 2.02 = -6.78

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.02)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-6.24)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 3, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.5%

Win Probability (After): 75.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:51 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 12) Toa Taua run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 14 - NEV 3, FRES 14 -1.07 26.0% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 14

Started Drive at: FRES 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.70 - 4.77 = -1.07

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.23)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.0%

Win Probability (After): 23.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:51 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 12 at FRES 14) Strong, Carson pass incomplete to Lockhart, Justi, PENALTY FS pass interference (LUX, Bralyn) 12 yards to the FS2, 1ST DOWN NEVADA, NO PLAY. - NEV 3, FRES 14 2.44 24.5% 2.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 2

Started Drive at: FRES 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.14 - 3.70 = 2.44

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.30)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-4.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 3, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.5%

Win Probability (After): 26.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:10 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & Goal at FRES 2) Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 2 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) - NEV 10, FRES 14 0.87 27.1% 8.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: FRES 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.13 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-4.87)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.1%

Win Probability (After): 35.9%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:10 ESPN team id 278 (Kickoff at FRES 35) Julian Diaz kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NEV 10, FRES 14 0.00 65.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 1.60 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.60)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.6%

Win Probability (After): 65.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:10 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 25) Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 17 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST down - NEV 10, FRES 14 1.01 65.6% 3.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 58

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.61 - 1.60 = 1.01

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.60)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.6%

Win Probability (After): 69.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:10 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 42) Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 45 - NEV 10, FRES 14 -0.31 69.3% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 55

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.30 - 2.61 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.61)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.3%

Win Probability (After): 68.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:10 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 7 at FRES 45) Jordan Mims run for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 41 - NEV 10, FRES 14 -1.40 68.7% -4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 59

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - 2.30 = -1.40

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.30)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.7%

Win Probability (After): 64.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:10 ESPN team id 278 (3rd & 11 at FRES 41) HAENER, Jake pass incomplete to POPE, Zane, PENALTY NEVADA pass interference (Sanders, Bentle) 12 yards to the NEVADA47, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY. - NEV 10, FRES 14 2.35 64.6% 6.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 47

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.25 - 0.90 = 2.35

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.90)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.6%

Win Probability (After): 70.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:10 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at NEV 47) Jalen Cropper run for 1 yd to the Nevad 46 - NEV 10, FRES 14 -0.53 70.7% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 46

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.72 - 3.25 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.25)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.7%

Win Probability (After): 69.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:10 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 9 at NEV 46) Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 4 yds to the Nevad 42 - NEV 10, FRES 14 -0.38 69.8% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 42

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.34 - 2.72 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.72)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.8%

Win Probability (After): 68.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:10 ESPN team id 278 (3rd & 5 at NEV 42) Jake Haener run for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 48 Jake Haener fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Dontae Bull - NEV 10, FRES 14 -2.30 68.4% -5.1%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 48

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 2.34 = -2.30

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.34)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.4%

Win Probability (After): 63.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:10 ESPN team id 278 (4th & 11 at NEV 48) Carson King punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Romeo Doubs at the Nevad 15 - NEV 10, FRES 14 -0.58 63.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 85

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.53 - 0.05 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.05)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.47)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.3%

Win Probability (After): 62.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 6:39 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 15) Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 15 - NEV 10, FRES 14 -0.58 33.7% 2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 85

Started Drive at: NEV 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.12 - 0.46 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.54)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.7%

Win Probability (After): 36.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:39 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 10 at NEV 15) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 9 yds to the Nevad 24 - NEV 10, FRES 14 0.24 31.5% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 76

Started Drive at: NEV 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.07 - -0.17 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.17)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.5%

Win Probability (After): 31.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:39 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 1 at NEV 24) Devonte Lee run for 11 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST down - NEV 10, FRES 14 1.64 31.6% 4.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 65

Started Drive at: NEV 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.71 - 0.07 = 1.64

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.93)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.6%

Win Probability (After): 36.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:39 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 35) Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 2 yds to the Nevad 37 - NEV 10, FRES 14 -0.53 36.3% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 63

Started Drive at: NEV 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.18 - 1.71 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.29)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.3%

Win Probability (After): 35.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:39 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 8 at NEV 37) Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 5 yds to the Nevad 42 - NEV 10, FRES 14 -0.04 35.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 58

Started Drive at: NEV 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 1.18 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.82)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.4%

Win Probability (After): 35.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:39 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 3 at NEV 42) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 16 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST down - NEV 10, FRES 14 1.93 35.2% 4.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 42

Started Drive at: NEV 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.07 - 1.14 = 1.93

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.86)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.2%

Win Probability (After): 39.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:39 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 42) Strong, Carson pass incomplete to Horton, Tory, PENALTY NEVADA holding 10 yards to the NEVADA48, NO PLAY. - NEV 10, FRES 14 -1.18 39.2% -3.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 52

Started Drive at: NEV 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.89 - 3.07 = -1.18

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.93)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.2%

Win Probability (After): 36.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:39 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 20 at NEV 48) Carson Strong sacked by Kevin Atkins for a loss of 8 yards to the Nevad 40 - NEV 10, FRES 14 -1.05 36.2% -1.9%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 60

Started Drive at: NEV 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - 1.89 = -1.05

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.11)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.2%

Win Probability (After): 34.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:39 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 28 at NEV 40) Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 21 yds to the FrsSt 39 - NEV 10, FRES 14 1.23 34.3% 3.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 39

Started Drive at: NEV 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.06 - 0.84 = 1.23

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.16)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.3%

Win Probability (After): 37.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:50 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 7 at FRES 39) Timeout NEVADA, clock 02:50 - NEV 10, FRES 14 0.00 38.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39

Started Drive at: NEV 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.06 - 2.06 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.94)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.9%

Win Probability (After): 38.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:50 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 7 at FRES 39) Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 6 yds to the FrsSt 33 - NEV 10, FRES 14 0.36 38.5% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 33

Started Drive at: NEV 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 1.75 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.25)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.5%

Win Probability (After): 38.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:50 ESPN team id 2440 (4th & 1 at FRES 33) Devonte Lee run for no gain to the FrsSt 33 - NEV 10, FRES 14 -3.49 38.8% -7.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 67

Started Drive at: NEV 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.38 - 2.11 = -3.49

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.89)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.38)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.8%

Win Probability (After): 31.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:03 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 33) Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 7 yds to the FrsSt 40 - NEV 10, FRES 14 0.29 69.3% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 60

Started Drive at: FRES 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.72 - 1.44 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.44)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.3%

Win Probability (After): 70.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:03 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 3 at FRES 40) Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 3 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST down - NEV 10, FRES 14 0.14 70.9% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 57

Started Drive at: FRES 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 1.68 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.68)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.9%

Win Probability (After): 71.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:03 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 43) Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 5 yds to the FrsSt 48 - NEV 10, FRES 14 -0.12 71.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 52

Started Drive at: FRES 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.70 - 1.82 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.82)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.4%

Win Probability (After): 71.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:03 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 5 at FRES 48) Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh Kelly - NEV 10, FRES 14 -0.50 71.4% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: FRES 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 1.70 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.70)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.4%

Win Probability (After): 69.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:03 ESPN team id 278 (3rd & 5 at FRES 48) Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jordan Mims FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declined - NEV 10, FRES 14 -0.99 69.0% -3.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: FRES 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - 1.20 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.20)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.0%

Win Probability (After): 65.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:03 ESPN team id 278 (4th & 5 at FRES 48) KING, Carson punt 39 yards to the NEVADA13, downed, PENALTY FS illegal formation 5 yards to the FS43, NO PLAY. - NEV 10, FRES 14 -0.15 65.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 57

Started Drive at: FRES 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 0.21 = -0.15

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.21)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.4%

Win Probability (After): 64.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:03 ESPN team id 278 (4th & 10 at FRES 43) Carson King punt for 51 yds , Jamaal Bell returns for no gain to the Nevad 6 - NEV 10, FRES 14 -0.33 64.4% 3.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 94

Started Drive at: FRES 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.26 - 0.06 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.06)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.74)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.4%

Win Probability (After): 67.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:42 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 6) Timeout FRESNO ST, clock 00:42 - NEV 10, FRES 14 0.00 32.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 94

Started Drive at: NEV 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 0.05 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.95)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.0%

Win Probability (After): 32.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:42 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 6) Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Nevad 10 - NEV 10, FRES 14 0.00 32.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 90

Started Drive at: NEV 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 0.05 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.95)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.1%

Win Probability (After): 31.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:42 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 6 at NEV 10) Toa Taua run for 11 yds to the Nevad 21 for a 1ST down - NEV 10, FRES 14 0.24 31.9% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 79

Started Drive at: NEV 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.30 - 0.06 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.94)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.9%

Win Probability (After): 32.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:42 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 21) NEVADA Penalty, false start (Melquan Stovall) to the Nevad 16 - NEV 10, FRES 14 -0.30 32.9% -1.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 84

Started Drive at: NEV 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.16 - 0.30 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.70)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.9%

Win Probability (After): 31.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 278 (Kickoff at FRES 35) Julian Diaz kickoff for 62 yds - NEV 10, FRES 14 0.86 70.0% 1.3%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: FRES 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.22 - 1.36 = 0.86

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.36)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.0%

Win Probability (After): 71.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 35) Jordan Mims run for 26 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST down - NEV 10, FRES 14 1.51 71.3% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 39

Started Drive at: FRES 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.73 - 2.22 = 1.51

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.22)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.3%

Win Probability (After): 73.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at NEV 39) Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the Nevad 33 - NEV 10, FRES 14 0.29 73.9% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 33

Started Drive at: FRES 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.02 - 3.73 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.73)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.9%

Win Probability (After): 74.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 4 at NEV 33) Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 13 yds to the Nevad 20 for a 1ST down - NEV 10, FRES 14 0.61 74.0% 1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 20

Started Drive at: FRES 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.63 - 4.02 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.02)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.0%

Win Probability (After): 75.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at NEV 20) Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 9 yds to the Nevad 11 - NEV 10, FRES 14 0.71 75.9% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 11

Started Drive at: FRES 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.34 - 4.63 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.63)

Score Difference (End): 4 (9.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.9%

Win Probability (After): 77.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:21 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 1 at NEV 11) Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 11 yds for a TD NEVADA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Devonte Lee) declined, (Cesar Silva KICK) - NEV 10, FRES 21 1.50 79.8% 9.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 99

Started Drive at: FRES 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.50 = 1.50

Score Difference (Before): 4 (9.50)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.8%

Win Probability (After): 88.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:21 ESPN team id 2440 (Kickoff at NEV 35) Cesar Silva kickoff for 65 yds , Bentlee Sanders return for 30 yds to the FRESNOST 35 FRESNO ST Penalty, OF (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 35 - NEV 10, FRES 21 1.08 15.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: NEV 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.88 - -0.20 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-19.08)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.3%

Win Probability (After): 15.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:15 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 35) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 8 yds to the Nevad 43 - NEV 10, FRES 21 0.68 15.6% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 57

Started Drive at: NEV 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.57 - 0.89 = 0.68

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.11)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.6%

Win Probability (After): 16.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:15 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 2 at NEV 43) Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST down - NEV 10, FRES 21 0.04 16.8% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 54

Started Drive at: NEV 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.62 - 1.59 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.41)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.8%

Win Probability (After): 17.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:15 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 46) Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 43 - NEV 10, FRES 21 -1.19 17.3% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 57

Started Drive at: NEV 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 1.62 = -1.19

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.38)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.3%

Win Probability (After): 15.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:15 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 13 at NEV 43) Carson Strong pass incomplete to Tory Horton - NEV 10, FRES 21 -1.02 15.1% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: NEV 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.58 - 0.44 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.56)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.1%

Win Probability (After): 14.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:15 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 13 at NEV 43) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 14 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST down - NEV 10, FRES 21 3.07 14.0% 4.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 43

Started Drive at: NEV 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - -0.58 = 3.07

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.58)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.0%

Win Probability (After): 18.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:15 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 43) Carson Strong sacked by Leonard Payne Jr. and Devo Bridges for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 44 - NEV 10, FRES 21 -1.15 18.4% -2.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 44

Started Drive at: NEV 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.33 - 2.49 = -1.15

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.51)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.4%

Win Probability (After): 15.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:15 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 11 at FRES 44) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for no gain to the FrsSt 44 - NEV 10, FRES 21 -1.12 15.9% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: NEV 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - 1.33 = -1.12

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.67)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.9%

Win Probability (After): 14.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:15 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 11 at FRES 44) Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 13 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST down - NEV 10, FRES 21 3.24 14.8% 7.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 31

Started Drive at: NEV 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 0.22 = 3.24

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.78)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.8%

Win Probability (After): 22.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:15 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 31) Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 30 - NEV 10, FRES 21 -0.62 22.4% -3.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 30

Started Drive at: NEV 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.83 - 3.45 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.55)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 10, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.4%

Win Probability (After): 18.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:46 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 9 at FRES 30) Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 30 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - NEV 16, FRES 21 3.14 17.5% 14.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 99

Started Drive at: NEV 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 2.86 = 3.14

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.14)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.5%

Win Probability (After): 31.7%

Away Score: 10 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:46 ESPN team id 278 (Kickoff at FRES 35) Julian Diaz kickoff for 65 yds , Jordan Mims return for 12 yds to the FrsSt 12 - NEV 16, FRES 21 -0.75 72.2% -0.4%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 88

Started Drive at: FRES 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 1.31 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.31)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.2%

Win Probability (After): 71.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:42 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 12) Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh Kelly - NEV 16, FRES 21 -0.74 71.8% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 88

Started Drive at: FRES 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.18 - 0.56 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): 5 (5.56)

Score Difference (End): 5 (4.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.8%

Win Probability (After): 70.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:42 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 10 at FRES 12) Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 16 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST down - NEV 16, FRES 21 1.74 70.9% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 72

Started Drive at: FRES 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - -0.17 = 1.74

Score Difference (Before): 5 (4.83)

Score Difference (End): 5 (6.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.9%

Win Probability (After): 72.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:42 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 28) Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 15 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST down - NEV 16, FRES 21 0.90 72.3% 2.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 57

Started Drive at: FRES 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.46 - 1.56 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.56)

Score Difference (End): 5 (7.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.3%

Win Probability (After): 75.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:42 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 43) Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 7 yds to the 50 yard line - NEV 16, FRES 21 0.47 75.1% 2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 50

Started Drive at: FRES 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.93 - 2.46 = 0.47

Score Difference (Before): 5 (7.46)

Score Difference (End): 5 (7.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.1%

Win Probability (After): 77.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:42 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 3 at 50) Jake Haener pass complete to Raymond Pauwels Jr. for 5 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST down - NEV 16, FRES 21 0.31 77.7% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 45

Started Drive at: FRES 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.24 - 2.93 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): 5 (7.93)

Score Difference (End): 5 (8.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.7%

Win Probability (After): 78.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:42 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at NEV 45) Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 11 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST down - NEV 16, FRES 21 0.66 78.5% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 34

Started Drive at: FRES 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.90 - 3.24 = 0.66

Score Difference (Before): 5 (8.24)

Score Difference (End): 5 (8.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.5%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:42 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at NEV 34) Jordan Mims run for 23 yds to the Nevad 11 for a 1ST down - NEV 16, FRES 21 1.31 79.3% 1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 11

Started Drive at: FRES 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.21 - 3.90 = 1.31

Score Difference (Before): 5 (8.90)

Score Difference (End): 5 (10.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.3%

Win Probability (After): 81.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:42 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at NEV 11) Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the Nevad 7 - NEV 16, FRES 21 -0.10 81.0% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 7

Started Drive at: FRES 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.11 - 5.21 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): 5 (10.21)

Score Difference (End): 5 (10.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 81 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.0%

Win Probability (After): 81.2%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:50 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 6 at NEV 7) Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 7 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) - NEV 16, FRES 28 1.86 82.8% 6.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99

Started Drive at: FRES 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.14 = 1.86

Score Difference (Before): 5 (10.14)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 88 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.8%

Win Probability (After): 89.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:50 ESPN team id 2440 (Kickoff at NEV 35) Cesar Silva kickoff for 57 yds , Jamaal Bell return for 24 yds to the Nevad 32 - NEV 16, FRES 28 0.80 11.4% 0.5%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 68

Started Drive at: NEV 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - -0.01 = 0.80

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.01)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-11.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.4%

Win Probability (After): 11.9%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:42 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 32) Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 9 yds to the Nevad 41 - NEV 16, FRES 28 1.00 11.5% 2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 59

Started Drive at: NEV 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.79 - 0.79 = 1.00

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.21)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-10.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.5%

Win Probability (After): 13.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:42 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 1 at NEV 41) NEVADA Penalty, false start (Melquan Stovall) to the Nevad 36 - NEV 16, FRES 28 -1.12 12.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 64

Started Drive at: NEV 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 1.79 = -1.12

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-10.21)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-11.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.4%

Win Probability (After): 11.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:42 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 6 at NEV 36) Carson Strong run for 3 yds to the Nevad 39 - NEV 16, FRES 28 -0.26 11.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 61

Started Drive at: NEV 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.41 - 0.66 = -0.26

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.34)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-11.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.5%

Win Probability (After): 11.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:42 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 3 at NEV 39) Toa Taua run for 28 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST down - NEV 16, FRES 28 3.11 11.4% 3.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 33

Started Drive at: NEV 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.52 - 0.41 = 3.11

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.59)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-8.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.4%

Win Probability (After): 15.2%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:42 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 33) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 5 yds to the FrsSt 28 - NEV 16, FRES 28 0.12 15.2% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 28

Started Drive at: NEV 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.63 - 3.52 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-8.48)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-8.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.2%

Win Probability (After): 15.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:42 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 5 at FRES 28) Strong, Carson pass complete to Horton, Tory for 11 yards to the FS17 (HOUSTON, Justin;FREE, Wylan), PENALTY NEVADA pass interference (Turner, Cole) 15 yards to the FS43, NO PLAY. - NEV 16, FRES 28 -2.36 15.4% -3.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 43

Started Drive at: NEV 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.28 - 3.63 = -2.36

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-8.37)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-10.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.4%

Win Probability (After): 11.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:42 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 20 at FRES 43) NEVADA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Melquan Stovall) to the Nevad 42 - NEV 16, FRES 28 -0.73 11.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 58

Started Drive at: NEV 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.54 - 1.28 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-10.72)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-11.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.5%

Win Probability (After): 11.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:42 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 35 at NEV 42) Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 15 yds to the FrsSt 43 - NEV 16, FRES 28 -0.35 11.3% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 43

Started Drive at: NEV 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 0.54 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.46)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-11.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.3%

Win Probability (After): 10.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:42 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 20 at FRES 43) Strong, Carson pass incomplete to Horton, Tory, PENALTY FS pass interference 15 yards to the FS28, 1ST DOWN NEVADA, NO PLAY. - NEV 16, FRES 28 3.63 10.5% 5.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 28

Started Drive at: NEV 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.83 - 0.20 = 3.63

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.80)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-8.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.5%

Win Probability (After): 15.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:42 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 28) NEVADA Penalty, illegal shift (Melquan Stovall) to the FrsSt 33 - NEV 16, FRES 28 -0.91 15.8% -1.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 33

Started Drive at: NEV 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 3.83 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-8.17)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-9.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.8%

Win Probability (After): 13.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:42 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 15 at FRES 33) Carson Strong pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29 - NEV 16, FRES 28 -0.32 13.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 29

Started Drive at: NEV 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.60 - 2.92 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-9.08)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-9.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.8%

Win Probability (After): 13.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:42 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 11 at FRES 29) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 6 yds to the FrsSt 23 - NEV 16, FRES 28 0.52 13.6% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 23

Started Drive at: NEV 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 2.60 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-9.40)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-8.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.6%

Win Probability (After): 14.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:42 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 5 at FRES 23) Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 12 yds to the FrsSt 11 for a 1ST down - NEV 16, FRES 28 1.78 14.3% 2.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 11

Started Drive at: NEV 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.90 - 3.11 = 1.78

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-8.89)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-7.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 16, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.3%

Win Probability (After): 17.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:56 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 11) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 11 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) - NEV 23, FRES 28 2.07 17.3% 7.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 99

Started Drive at: NEV 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.93 = 2.07

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-7.07)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 93 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.3%

Win Probability (After): 25.1%

Away Score: 16 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:56 ESPN team id 278 (Kickoff at FRES 35) Julian Diaz kickoff for 65 yds - NEV 23, FRES 28 0.00 76.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.40 - 1.40 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.40)

Score Difference (End): 5 (6.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.6%

Win Probability (After): 76.6%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:56 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 25) Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 22 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST down - NEV 23, FRES 28 1.33 76.6% 3.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 53

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - 1.40 = 1.33

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.40)

Score Difference (End): 5 (7.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.6%

Win Probability (After): 80.0%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:56 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 47) Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 10 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST down - NEV 23, FRES 28 0.59 80.0% 2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 43

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.33 - 2.74 = 0.59

Score Difference (Before): 5 (7.74)

Score Difference (End): 5 (8.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.0%

Win Probability (After): 82.0%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:56 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at NEV 43) Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the Nevad 38 - NEV 23, FRES 28 0.04 82.0% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 38

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.37 - 3.33 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): 5 (8.33)

Score Difference (End): 5 (8.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.0%

Win Probability (After): 82.2%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:56 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 5 at NEV 38) Jordan Mims run for 6 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST down - NEV 23, FRES 28 0.65 82.2% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 32

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.02 - 3.37 = 0.65

Score Difference (Before): 5 (8.37)

Score Difference (End): 5 (9.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.2%

Win Probability (After): 83.9%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:56 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at NEV 32) Jake Haener pass incomplete to Raymond Pauwels Jr. - NEV 23, FRES 28 -0.57 83.9% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 32

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 4.02 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 5 (9.02)

Score Difference (End): 5 (8.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.9%

Win Probability (After): 82.1%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:56 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 10 at NEV 32) Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the Nevad 29 - NEV 23, FRES 28 -0.63 82.1% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 29

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 3.45 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 5 (8.45)

Score Difference (End): 5 (7.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.1%

Win Probability (After): 79.9%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:56 ESPN team id 278 (3rd & 7 at NEV 29) Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh Kelly - NEV 23, FRES 28 -1.28 79.9% -3.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 29

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - 2.81 = -1.28

Score Difference (Before): 5 (7.81)

Score Difference (End): 5 (6.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.9%

Win Probability (After): 76.8%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:37 ESPN team id 278 (4th & 7 at NEV 29) Cesar Silva 47 yd FG GOOD - NEV 23, FRES 31 1.47 76.3% 9.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 65

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.53 = 1.47

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.53)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 31

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.3%

Win Probability (After): 85.3%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 28 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 12:37 ESPN team id 2440 (Kickoff at NEV 35) Cesar Silva kickoff for 65 yds , Bentlee Sanders return for 24 yds to the Nevad 24 - NEV 23, FRES 31 -0.09 16.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 76

Started Drive at: NEV 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.26 - 0.36 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.64)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 31

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.6%

Win Probability (After): 16.3%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:30 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 24) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 1 yd to the Nevad 25 - NEV 23, FRES 31 -0.38 16.2% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 75

Started Drive at: NEV 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.18 - 0.20 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.80)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.2%

Win Probability (After): 15.7%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:30 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 9 at NEV 25) Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 5 yds to the Nevad 30 - NEV 23, FRES 31 -0.04 15.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: NEV 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.27 - -0.23 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-8.23)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.7%

Win Probability (After): 15.4%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:30 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 4 at NEV 30) NEVADA Penalty, false start (Melquan Stovall) to the Nevad 25 - NEV 23, FRES 31 -0.84 15.4% -2.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 75

Started Drive at: NEV 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.11 - -0.27 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-8.27)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-9.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.4%

Win Probability (After): 12.8%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:30 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 9 at NEV 25) Carson Strong sacked by Arron Mosby for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 22 - NEV 23, FRES 31 -1.46 12.8% -2.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 78

Started Drive at: NEV 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.57 - -1.11 = -1.46

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-9.11)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-10.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.8%

Win Probability (After): 10.4%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:30 ESPN team id 2440 (4th & 12 at NEV 22) Julian Diaz punt for 42 yds, downed at the FrsSt 36 - NEV 23, FRES 31 0.37 10.4% 1.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 64

Started Drive at: NEV 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.20 - -2.57 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-10.57)

Score Difference (End): 8 (10.20)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 23, FRES 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.4%

Win Probability (After): 11.6%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:04 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 36) Jake Haener sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 30 - NEV 23, FRES 31 -1.22 88.9% -3.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 70

Started Drive at: FRES 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.96 - 2.18 = -1.22

Score Difference (Before): 8 (10.18)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, -6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.9%

Win Probability (After): 86.0%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:04 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 16 at FRES 30) Jordan Mims run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 45 - NEV 23, FRES 31 1.12 87.9% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 55

Started Drive at: FRES 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.13 - 1.00 = 1.12

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.00)

Score Difference (End): 8 (10.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.9%

Win Probability (After): 88.7%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:04 ESPN team id 278 (3rd & 1 at FRES 45) Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST down - NEV 23, FRES 31 0.51 88.7% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 53

Started Drive at: FRES 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.64 - 2.13 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): 8 (10.13)

Score Difference (End): 8 (10.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.7%

Win Probability (After): 89.5%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:04 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 47) Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 9 yds to the Nevad 44 - NEV 23, FRES 31 0.77 89.5% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 44

Started Drive at: FRES 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - 2.64 = 0.77

Score Difference (Before): 8 (10.64)

Score Difference (End): 8 (11.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 31

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.5%

Win Probability (After): 90.3%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:04 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 1 at NEV 44) Jordan Mims run for 12 yds to the Nevad 32 for a 1ST down - NEV 23, FRES 31 0.51 90.3% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 32

Started Drive at: FRES 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 3.41 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): 8 (11.41)

Score Difference (End): 8 (11.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 31

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.3%

Win Probability (After): 91.9%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:04 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at NEV 32) Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the Nevad 30 - NEV 23, FRES 31 -0.41 91.9% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 30

Started Drive at: FRES 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.51 - 3.92 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): 8 (11.92)

Score Difference (End): 8 (11.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.9%

Win Probability (After): 90.7%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:04 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 8 at NEV 30) Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the Nevad 25 - NEV 23, FRES 31 0.08 90.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 25

Started Drive at: FRES 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.58 - 3.51 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): 8 (11.51)

Score Difference (End): 8 (11.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 31

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.7%

Win Probability (After): 90.4%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:04 ESPN team id 278 (3rd & 3 at NEV 25) Jordan Mims run for no gain to the Nevad 25 - NEV 23, FRES 31 -1.56 90.4% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: FRES 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - 3.58 = -1.56

Score Difference (Before): 8 (11.58)

Score Difference (End): 8 (10.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 31

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.4%

Win Probability (After): 88.9%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:48 ESPN team id 278 (4th & 3 at NEV 25) Cesar Silva 43 yd FG GOOD - NEV 23, FRES 34 1.19 93.7% -0.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 65

Started Drive at: FRES 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.81 = 1.19

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.81)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.7%

Win Probability (After): 93.2%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 31 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:48 ESPN team id 2440 (Kickoff at NEV 35) Cesar Silva kickoff for 65 yds , Bentlee Sanders return for 22 yds to the Nevad 22 - NEV 23, FRES 34 -0.07 5.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 78

Started Drive at: NEV 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.15 - 0.22 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.78)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.7%

Win Probability (After): 5.7%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:42 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 22) Strong, Carson pass incomplete, PENALTY FS roughing passer (BRIDGES, Devo) 15 yards to the NEVADA37, 1ST DOWN NEVADA, NO PLAY. - NEV 23, FRES 34 1.06 4.9% 1.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 63

Started Drive at: NEV 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.23 - 0.16 = 1.06

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.84)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.9%

Win Probability (After): 6.9%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:42 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 37) Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole Turner NEVADA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Berdale Robins) to the Nevad 22 - NEV 23, FRES 34 -1.43 6.6% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 78

Started Drive at: NEV 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.21 - 1.23 = -1.43

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.77)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, -15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.6%

Win Probability (After): 4.5%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:42 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 25 at NEV 22) Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 30 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST down - NEV 23, FRES 34 3.02 4.2% 2.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 48

Started Drive at: NEV 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.31 - -0.71 = 3.02

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.71)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.2%

Win Probability (After): 7.1%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:42 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 48) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 23 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST down - NEV 23, FRES 34 1.47 7.1% 3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 25

Started Drive at: NEV 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.77 - 2.31 = 1.47

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.69)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.1%

Win Probability (After): 10.1%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:42 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 25) Carson Strong pass incomplete - NEV 23, FRES 34 -0.49 10.1% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: NEV 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 3.77 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.23)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.1%

Win Probability (After): 7.8%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:42 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 10 at FRES 25) Carson Strong pass complete to Devonte Lee for 5 yds to the FrsSt 20 - NEV 23, FRES 34 0.01 7.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 20

Started Drive at: NEV 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.29 - 3.28 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.72)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.8%

Win Probability (After): 8.0%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:42 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 5 at FRES 20) Carson Strong pass incomplete to Justin Lockhart, broken up by LJ Early - NEV 23, FRES 34 -1.32 8.0% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: NEV 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - 3.29 = -1.32

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.71)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 23, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.0%

Win Probability (After): 7.0%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:21 ESPN team id 2440 (4th & 5 at FRES 20) Brandon Talton 38 yd FG GOOD - NEV 26, FRES 34 0.87 5.6% 2.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 65

Started Drive at: NEV 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.13 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.87)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 8.1%

Away Score: 23 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:21 ESPN team id 278 (Kickoff at FRES 35) Julian Diaz kickoff for 65 yds - NEV 26, FRES 34 0.00 94.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.93 - 0.93 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 8 (8.93)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.9%

Win Probability (After): 94.9%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:21 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at FRES 25) MIMS, Jordan rush for 5 yards to the FS30 (Lee, Jordan), PENALTY FS holding 10 yards to the FS15, NO PLAY. - NEV 26, FRES 34 -0.67 94.9% -0.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 85

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.26 - 0.93 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 8 (8.93)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.9%

Win Probability (After): 94.4%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:21 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 20 at FRES 15) Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 20 - NEV 26, FRES 34 -0.17 94.4% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 80

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.09 - 0.26 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): 8 (8.26)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.4%

Win Probability (After): 93.8%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:21 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 15 at FRES 20) Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh Kelly FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declined - NEV 26, FRES 34 -0.66 93.8% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.56 - 0.09 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 8 (8.09)

Score Difference (End): 8 (7.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.8%

Win Probability (After): 92.9%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:21 ESPN team id 278 (3rd & 15 at FRES 20) Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 19 - NEV 26, FRES 34 -0.95 92.9% -3.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 81

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.51 - -0.56 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): 8 (7.44)

Score Difference (End): 8 (6.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.9%

Win Probability (After): 89.5%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:05 ESPN team id 278 (4th & 16 at FRES 19) Timeout NEVADA, clock 03:05 - NEV 26, FRES 34 0.00 90.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 81

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.51 - -1.51 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 8 (6.49)

Score Difference (End): 8 (6.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.3%

Win Probability (After): 90.3%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 3:05 ESPN team id 278 (4th & 16 at FRES 19) Carson King punt for 51 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 17 yds to the Nevad 47 - NEV 26, FRES 34 -0.56 91.7% 1.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 53

Started Drive at: FRES 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.88 - -1.32 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 8 (6.68)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-6.12)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.7%

Win Probability (After): 93.3%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:53 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 47) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 8 yds to the FrsSt 45 - NEV 26, FRES 34 0.47 7.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 45

Started Drive at: NEV 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 1.88 = 0.47

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.12)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-5.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.1%

Win Probability (After): 7.2%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:53 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 2 at FRES 45) Carson Strong pass complete to Tory Horton for 3 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST down - NEV 26, FRES 34 0.15 7.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 42

Started Drive at: NEV 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 2.26 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.74)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-5.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.7%

Win Probability (After): 7.7%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:53 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 42) Carson Strong sacked by David Perales for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard line Carson Strong fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Evan Williams , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard line - NEV 26, FRES 34 -4.14 7.7% -6.1%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 50

Started Drive at: NEV 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.74 - 2.40 = -4.14

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.60)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.74)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.7%

Win Probability (After): 1.6%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:53 ESPN team id 278 (1st & 10 at 50) Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the Nevad 48 - NEV 26, FRES 34 -0.18 98.7% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 48

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.44 - 1.62 = -0.18

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.62)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.7%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:48 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 8 at NEV 48) Timeout NEVADA, clock 01:48 - NEV 26, FRES 34 0.00 98.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.44 - 1.44 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.44)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.6%

Win Probability (After): 98.6%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:48 ESPN team id 278 (2nd & 8 at NEV 48) Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the Nevad 44 - NEV 26, FRES 34 -0.09 98.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 44

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 1.30 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.30)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.6%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:41 ESPN team id 278 (3rd & 4 at NEV 44) Timeout NEVADA, clock 01:41 - NEV 26, FRES 34 0.00 98.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 1.21 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.21)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.4%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:41 ESPN team id 278 (3rd & 4 at NEV 44) Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the Nevad 43 - NEV 26, FRES 34 -0.84 98.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 43

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 1.21 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.21)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.4%

Win Probability (After): 98.0%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:41 ESPN team id 278 (4th & 3 at NEV 43) Carson King punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Romeo Doubs at the Nevad 10 - NEV 26, FRES 34 -0.53 98.0% -1.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 90

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.15 - 0.38 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): 8 (8.38)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.85)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.0%

Win Probability (After): 97.0%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:53 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 10) Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 21 yds to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST down - NEV 26, FRES 34 1.06 1.4% 2.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 69

Started Drive at: NEV 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.09 - 0.03 = 1.06

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.97)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-6.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.4%

Win Probability (After): 4.0%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:53 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 31) Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 12 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST down - NEV 26, FRES 34 0.44 1.6% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 57

Started Drive at: NEV 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 0.58 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.42)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-6.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.6%

Win Probability (After): 1.7%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:33 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 43) Timeout FRESNO ST, clock 00:33 - NEV 26, FRES 34 0.00 1.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: NEV 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 1.02 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.98)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-6.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.6%

Win Probability (After): 1.6%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:33 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at NEV 43) Carson Strong pass incomplete to Tory Horton, broken up by Emari Pait - NEV 26, FRES 34 -0.08 1.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: NEV 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - 0.91 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.09)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.8%

Win Probability (After): 1.8%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:33 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 10 at NEV 43) Carson Strong pass complete to Justin Lockhart for 21 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST down - NEV 26, FRES 34 1.47 1.8% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 36

Started Drive at: NEV 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.30 - 0.82 = 1.47

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.18)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-5.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.8%

Win Probability (After): 2.7%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:33 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 36) Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 24 yds to the FrsSt 12 for a 1ST down - NEV 26, FRES 34 2.22 2.7% 3.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 12

Started Drive at: NEV 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - 2.30 = 2.22

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.70)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-3.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.7%

Win Probability (After): 6.6%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:33 ESPN team id 2440 (1st & 10 at FRES 12) Carson Strong pass incomplete - NEV 26, FRES 34 -0.39 6.6% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 12

Started Drive at: NEV 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.12 - 4.52 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-3.48)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-3.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.6%

Win Probability (After): 5.2%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:33 ESPN team id 2440 (2nd & 10 at FRES 12) Carson Strong pass incomplete to Cole Turner, broken up by Wylan Free - NEV 26, FRES 34 -0.59 5.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 12

Started Drive at: NEV 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.53 - 4.12 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-3.88)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-4.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 26, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.2%

Win Probability (After): 4.3%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:02 ESPN team id 2440 (3rd & 10 at FRES 12) Carson Strong pass complete to Cole Turner for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - NEV 32, FRES 34 3.62 5.8% -5.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: NEV 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 2.38 = 3.62

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.62)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NEV 32, FRES 34

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 26 (32) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2