New Mexico St 34 @ Hawai'i 48

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 1.84 | Odds: HAW -19, O/U 63.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 166 ESPN team id 62
Total Plays 10276
Total EPA 6.4715.11
  Offensive EPA -4.6914.93
  Special Teams EPA 3.340.27
  Penalty EPA 6.760.57
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 1.06-0.66
Production ESPN team id 166 ESPN team id 62
Scrimmage Plays 8765
  Yards 639472
  Yards/Play 7.347.26
  EPA -4.6914.93
  EPA/Play -0.050.23
Passes 53 (61%)30 (46%)
  Yards 228219
  Yards/Play 4.307.30
  EPA -25.813.61
  EPA/Play -0.490.12
Rushes 34 (39%)35 (54%)
  Yards 257273
  Yards/Play 7.567.80
  EPA 21.1311.33
  EPA/Play 0.620.32
Rushing ESPN team id 166 ESPN team id 62
Scrimmage Plays 8765
Rushes 34 (39%)35 (54%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 5 (15%)1 (3%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 5 (100%)1 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 3 (9%)5 (14%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 11 (32%)11 (31%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 20 (59%)22 (63%)
OL Line Yards 69.654.9
  Per Carry 2.051.57
Highlight Yards 121125
  Per Rush Opportunity 6.055.68
Explosiveness ESPN team id 166 ESPN team id 62
Total Plays 10276
Scrimmage Plays 8765
Explosive Plays 4 (5%)3 (5%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 0 (0%)2 (7%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 4 (12%)1 (3%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -20.490.67
  EPA/Play -0.250.01
  When Passing -25.81-4.81
    EPA/Play -0.49-0.16
  When Rushing 5.325.48
    EPA/Play 0.180.16
Situational ESPN team id 166 ESPN team id 62
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 44 (51%)37 (57%)
  When Passing 21 (40%)16 (53%)
  When Rushing 23 (68%)21 (60%)
  On Standard Downs 29 (51%)28 (56%)
  On Passing Downs 15 (50%)9 (60%)
  On Early Downs 34 (50%)32 (57%)
  On Late Downs 10 (53%)5 (56%)
  During "Middle 8" 9 (53%)3 (33%)
Early Downs 6856
  First Downs Created 17 (25%)19 (34%)
  EPA -6.128.67
  EPA/Play -0.090.15
  Passes 43 (63%)22 (39%)
  Rushes 25 (37%)34 (61%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 18 (42%)12 (55%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 16 (64%)20 (59%)
"Middle 8" Plays 179
  EPA 2.40-3.68
  EPA/play 0.14-0.41
  Passes 12 (71%)3 (33%)
  Rushes 5 (29%)6 (67%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 6 (50%)1 (33%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 3 (60%)2 (33%)
Drives ESPN team id 166 ESPN team id 62
Total 1311
Avg Starting Field Position Own 31Own 26
Plays/Drive 8.108.23
Yards/Drive 46.8253.11
Available Yards % 67%71%
Defensive ESPN team id 166 ESPN team id 62
Scrimmage Plays 6587
Stop Rate 22%25%
Havoc Plays Created 11 (17%)10 (11%)
  Passing 8 (27%)8 (15%)
  Rushing 3 (9%)2 (6%)
TFLs Generated 92
  Passing 60
  Rushing 32
Sacks Generated 1 (3%)0 (0%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 02
Fumbles Forced 10
Turnovers ESPN team id 166 ESPN team id 62
Turnovers 21
  Fumbles 03
  Fumbles Lost 01
  Fumbles Recovered 02
  Interceptions 20
Turnover Margin -11
Expected Turnovers 1.91.5
Expected Turnover Margin -0.40.4
Turnover Luck (pts) -2.82.8
Special Teams ESPN team id 166 ESPN team id 62
Total Plays 15 11
Total EPA 3.34 0.27
  Field Goal EPA 1.24 1.12
  Punting EPA 3.52 -0.68
  Kickoff Return EPA -1.41 -0.18

New Mexico State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Jonah Johnson 24/53, 228 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 0 Scks, 42.5 xQBR 4.30 -0.49 -25.81 40% -15.0%
Rush attempts
Juwaun Price 17 carries, 159 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.35 0.67 11.36 65% 16.0%
Jonah Johnson 14 carries, 84 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.68 9.54 71% 16.0%
Alex Escobar 3 carries, 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.67 0.07 0.22 67% 1.0%
Pass targets
Jared Wyatt 5 catches (5 targets), 49 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.80 0.98 4.88 100% 3.0%
Terrell Warner 2 catches (3 targets), 19 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.50 0.53 1.60 67% 5.0%
Andre Bodison 5 catches (8 targets), 44 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.80 0.19 1.51 50% 2.0%
Lawrence Dixon 1 catch (1 target), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.23 0.23 100% 0.0%
Alex Escobar 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.54 -0.54 0% 0.0%
Thomaz Whitford 1 catch (3 targets), 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 -0.21 -0.62 33% -1.0%
Juwaun Price 2 catches (3 targets), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.50 -0.40 -1.19 33% -2.0%
Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda 6 catches (16 targets), 82 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.67 -0.09 -1.44 38% 2.0%
Cole Harrity 2 catches (6 targets), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 -0.59 -3.53 17% -3.0%

Hawai'i [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Brayden Schager 25/29, 219 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 52.0 xQBR 7.30 0.12 3.61 53% 4.0%
Rush attempts
Dedrick Parson 25 carries, 161 yds, 3 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.44 0.26 6.52 64% 13.0%
Calvin Turner Jr. 6 carries, 94 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.67 0.76 4.53 50% 16.0%
Brayden Schager 2 carries, 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.50 0.60 1.20 100% 1.0%
Nasjzae Bryant 1 carry, 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.34 -0.34 0% -1.0%
TEAM 1 carry, -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.00 -0.58 -0.58 0% 0.0%
Pass targets
Nick Mardner 4 catches (4 targets), 81 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 20.25 1.93 7.71 100% 8.0%
Dedrick Parson 6 catches (6 targets), 54 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 0.63 3.81 67% 1.0%
Jared Smart 4 catches (5 targets), 45 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 11.25 0.72 3.58 60% 1.0%
Koali Nishigaya 1 catch (1 target), 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.00 1.29 1.29 100% 1.0%
Caleb Phillips 2 catches (2 targets), -1 yd, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) -0.50 -0.70 -1.40 0% -1.0%
Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala 2 catches (2 targets), 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.50 -0.74 -1.48 50% 0.0%
Aaron Cephus 1 catch (1 target), -6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -6.00 -2.20 -2.20 0% -2.0%
Calvin Turner Jr. 5 catches (8 targets), 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 -0.31 -2.46 38% -1.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 12:06 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 33) Jonah Johnson pass intercepted for a TD Darius Muasau return for 75 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) - NMSU 27, HAW 41 -10.49 14.2% -11.4%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 99

Started Drive at: NMSU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.49 = -10.49

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.51)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 137 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.2%

Win Probability (After): 2.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 34 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:38 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 10 at HAW 24) Jonah Johnson pass intercepted for a TD Khoury Bethley return for 79 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) - NMSU 3, HAW 17 -10.32 11.0% -7.4%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 99

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.32 = -10.32

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.68)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 130 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.0%

Win Probability (After): 3.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:18 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at HAW 25) Calvin Turner Jr. run for 75 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) - NMSU 27, HAW 34 5.84 71.2% 18.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.16 = 5.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.16)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.2%

Win Probability (After): 89.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 27 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:05 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 1 at NMSU 44) Juwaun Price run for 56 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) - NMSU 10, HAW 24 5.80 1.5% 2.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 99

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.20 = 5.80

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-19.80)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 10, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.5%

Win Probability (After): 3.7%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 10 at NMSU 40) Brayden Schager sacked by Chris Ojoh for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard line Brayden Schager fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Michael Bowe Jr. , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard line - NMSU 13, HAW 24 -5.23 96.3% -2.5%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 50

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.85 - 3.39 = -5.23

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.39)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.15)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.3%

Win Probability (After): 93.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:48 ESPN team id 62 (3rd & 11 at HAW 48) Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Mardner for 49 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST down - NMSU 34, HAW 41 4.99 91.2% 5.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 3

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.14 - 1.15 = 4.99

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.15)

Score Difference (End): 7 (13.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.8%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:30 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 46) Juwaun Price run for 46 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) - NMSU 27, HAW 27 4.59 14.9% 13.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 99

Started Drive at: NMSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.41 = 4.59

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.59)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 27

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.9%

Win Probability (After): 28.0%

Away Score: 20 (27) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 8:08 ESPN team id 166 (4th & 9 at HAW 39) HAWAII Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Hawa 24 for a 1ST down - NMSU 0, HAW 3 4.35 8.0% 3.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 24

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.18 - -0.17 = 4.35

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.17)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.0%

Win Probability (After): 11.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 3:05 ESPN team id 166 (4th & 13 at NMSU 26) Josh Carlson punt for 34 yds , Koali Nishigaya returns for 2 yds to the Hawa 42 Koali Nishigaya fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Austin Reeves - NMSU 10, HAW 24 3.83 3.8% 2.1%

Play Type: Punt Team Fumble Recovery

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 42

Started Drive at: NMSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - -1.44 = 3.83

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.44)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 10, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.8%

Win Probability (After): 5.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 12:06 ESPN team id 166 (4th & 1 at HAW 42) Jonah Johnson run for 21 yds to the Hawa 21 for a 1ST down - NMSU 27, HAW 41 3.54 3.3% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 21

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 0.54 = 3.54

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.46)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.3%

Win Probability (After): 5.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q3 1:18 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at HAW 25) Calvin Turner Jr. run for 75 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) - NMSU 27, HAW 34 5.84 71.2% 18.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.16 = 5.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.16)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.2%

Win Probability (After): 89.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 27 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:30 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 46) Juwaun Price run for 46 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) - NMSU 27, HAW 27 4.59 14.9% 13.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 99

Started Drive at: NMSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.41 = 4.59

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.59)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 27

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.9%

Win Probability (After): 28.0%

Away Score: 20 (27) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:06 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 33) Jonah Johnson pass intercepted for a TD Darius Muasau return for 75 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) - NMSU 27, HAW 41 -10.49 14.2% -11.4%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 99

Started Drive at: NMSU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.49 = -10.49

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.51)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 137 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.2%

Win Probability (After): 2.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 34 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:38 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 10 at HAW 24) Jonah Johnson pass intercepted for a TD Khoury Bethley return for 79 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) - NMSU 3, HAW 17 -10.32 11.0% -7.4%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 99

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.32 = -10.32

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.68)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 130 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.0%

Win Probability (After): 3.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:12 ESPN team id 62 (1st & Goal at NMSU 9) Dedrick Parson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) - NMSU 3, HAW 10 1.63 87.9% 6.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: HAW 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.37 = 1.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.37)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.9%

Win Probability (After): 94.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:48 ESPN team id 62 (3rd & 11 at HAW 48) Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Mardner for 49 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST down - NMSU 34, HAW 41 4.99 91.2% 5.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 3

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.14 - 1.15 = 4.99

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.15)

Score Difference (End): 7 (13.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.8%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:48 ESPN team id 166 (1st & Goal at HAW 7) Jonah Johnson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) - NMSU 34, HAW 41 1.73 5.3% 4.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.27 = 1.73

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-8.73)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.3%

Win Probability (After): 9.9%

Away Score: 27 (34) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 4:23 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 10 at NMSU 43) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 11 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST down - NMSU 20, HAW 27 1.39 11.1% 4.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 46

Started Drive at: NMSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 0.91 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.09)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 27

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.1%

Win Probability (After): 15.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 8:01 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & Goal at HAW 1) Jonah Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) - NMSU 20, HAW 24 0.91 11.9% 4.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.09 = 0.91

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-4.91)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.9%

Win Probability (After): 16.5%

Away Score: 13 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:37 ESPN team id 62 (4th & 9 at NMSU 24) Matthew Shipley 41 yd FG GOOD - NMSU 0, HAW 3 0.97 88.7% 4.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 65

Started Drive at: HAW 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.03 = 0.97

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.03)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.7%

Win Probability (After): 93.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 10:37 ESPN team id 62 (4th & 9 at NMSU 24) Matthew Shipley 41 yd FG GOOD - NMSU 0, HAW 3 0.97 88.7% 4.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 65

Started Drive at: HAW 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.03 = 0.97

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.03)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.7%

Win Probability (After): 93.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:41 ESPN team id 166 (4th & 6 at HAW 9) Ethan Albertson 27 yd FG GOOD - NMSU 3, HAW 3 0.26 13.3% 0.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 65

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.74 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.26)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.3%

Win Probability (After): 14.1%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 1:12 ESPN team id 62 (1st & Goal at NMSU 9) Dedrick Parson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) - NMSU 3, HAW 10 1.63 87.9% 6.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: HAW 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.37 = 1.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.37)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.9%

Win Probability (After): 94.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:38 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 10 at HAW 24) Jonah Johnson pass intercepted for a TD Khoury Bethley return for 79 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) - NMSU 3, HAW 17 -10.32 11.0% -7.4%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 99

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.32 = -10.32

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.68)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 130 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.0%

Win Probability (After): 3.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:56 ESPN team id 62 (1st & Goal at NMSU 1) Dedrick Parson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) - NMSU 3, HAW 24 0.53 98.0% 0.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: HAW 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.47 = 0.53

Score Difference (Before): 14 (20.47)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.0%

Win Probability (After): 99.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:05 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 1 at NMSU 44) Juwaun Price run for 56 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) - NMSU 10, HAW 24 5.80 1.5% 2.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 99

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.20 = 5.80

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-19.80)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 10, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.5%

Win Probability (After): 3.7%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:34 ESPN team id 166 (4th & 4 at HAW 26) Ethan Albertson 44 yd FG GOOD - NMSU 13, HAW 24 0.98 6.0% 1.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 65

Started Drive at: HAW 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.02 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.98)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.0%

Win Probability (After): 7.2%

Away Score: 10 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 8:01 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & Goal at HAW 1) Jonah Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) - NMSU 20, HAW 24 0.91 11.9% 4.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.09 = 0.91

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-4.91)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.9%

Win Probability (After): 16.5%

Away Score: 13 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:27 ESPN team id 62 (4th & 6 at NMSU 10) Matthew Shipley 27 yd FG GOOD - NMSU 20, HAW 27 0.15 85.9% 3.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 65

Started Drive at: HAW 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.85 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.85)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 27

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.9%

Win Probability (After): 89.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:30 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 46) Juwaun Price run for 46 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) - NMSU 27, HAW 27 4.59 14.9% 13.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 99

Started Drive at: NMSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.41 = 4.59

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.59)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 27

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.9%

Win Probability (After): 28.0%

Away Score: 20 (27) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:18 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at HAW 25) Calvin Turner Jr. run for 75 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) - NMSU 27, HAW 34 5.84 71.2% 18.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.16 = 5.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.16)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.2%

Win Probability (After): 89.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 27 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:06 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 33) Jonah Johnson pass intercepted for a TD Darius Muasau return for 75 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) - NMSU 27, HAW 41 -10.49 14.2% -11.4%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 99

Started Drive at: NMSU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.49 = -10.49

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.51)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 137 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.2%

Win Probability (After): 2.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 34 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:48 ESPN team id 166 (1st & Goal at HAW 7) Jonah Johnson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) - NMSU 34, HAW 41 1.73 5.3% 4.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.27 = 1.73

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-8.73)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.3%

Win Probability (After): 9.9%

Away Score: 27 (34) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 4:16 ESPN team id 62 (1st & Goal at NMSU 3) Dedrick Parson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) - NMSU 34, HAW 48 1.02 98.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.98 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.98)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 48

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.4%

Win Probability (After): 98.5%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 41 (48)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 166 (Kickoff at NMSU 35) Kyler Halvorsen kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NMSU 0, HAW 0 0.00 9.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.2%

Win Probability (After): 9.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at NMSU 25) Juwaun Price run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30 - NMSU 0, HAW 0 0.24 10.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 0.86 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.1%

Win Probability (After): 10.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 5 at NMSU 30) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 3 yds to the NMxSt 33 - NMSU 0, HAW 0 -0.42 10.0% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 67

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.68 - 1.10 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.0%

Win Probability (After): 9.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 2 at NMSU 33) Juwaun Price run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 29 - NMSU 0, HAW 0 -2.57 9.7% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 71

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.88 - 0.68 = -2.57

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.68)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.7%

Win Probability (After): 8.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 166 (4th & 6 at NMSU 29) Josh Carlson punt for 44 yds , Calvin Turner Jr. returns for 7 yds to the Hawa 34 - NMSU 0, HAW 0 0.12 8.1% 2.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 66

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.77 - -1.88 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.88)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.77)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.1%

Win Probability (After): 10.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 13:14 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at HAW 34) Dedrick Parson run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST down - NMSU 0, HAW 0 0.99 90.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 49

Started Drive at: HAW 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.90 - 1.91 = 0.99

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.91)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.8%

Win Probability (After): 90.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:14 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at NMSU 49) Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Mardner for 12 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST down - NMSU 0, HAW 0 0.62 91.8% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 37

Started Drive at: HAW 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.63 - 3.01 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.8%

Win Probability (After): 92.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:14 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at NMSU 37) Dedrick Parson run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST down - NMSU 0, HAW 0 0.72 92.2% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 25

Started Drive at: HAW 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.35 - 3.63 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.2%

Win Probability (After): 92.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:14 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at NMSU 25) Dedrick Parson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 26 - NMSU 0, HAW 0 -0.94 92.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 26

Started Drive at: HAW 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - 4.35 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.5%

Win Probability (After): 92.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:14 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 11 at NMSU 26) Brayden Schager pass complete to Jared Smart for 8 yds to the NMxSt 18 - NMSU 0, HAW 0 0.66 92.1% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 18

Started Drive at: HAW 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.07 - 3.41 = 0.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.41)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.1%

Win Probability (After): 92.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:14 ESPN team id 62 (3rd & 3 at NMSU 18) Brayden Schager pass complete to Aaron Cephus for a loss of 6 yards to the NMxSt 24 - NMSU 0, HAW 0 -2.20 92.4% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 24

Started Drive at: HAW 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 4.07 = -2.20

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.4%

Win Probability (After): 90.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:37 ESPN team id 62 (4th & 9 at NMSU 24) Matthew Shipley 41 yd FG GOOD - NMSU 0, HAW 3 0.97 88.7% 4.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 65

Started Drive at: HAW 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.03 = 0.97

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.03)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.7%

Win Probability (After): 93.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:37 ESPN team id 166 (Kickoff at NMSU 35) Kyler Halvorsen kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NMSU 0, HAW 3 0.00 8.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.67 - 0.67 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.33)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.0%

Win Probability (After): 8.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:37 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at NMSU 25) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 15 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST down - NMSU 0, HAW 3 1.21 8.0% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 60

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.89 - 0.67 = 1.21

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.33)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.0%

Win Probability (After): 8.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:37 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at NMSU 40) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 4 yds to the NMxSt 44 - NMSU 0, HAW 3 -0.06 8.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 56

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 1.89 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.11)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.8%

Win Probability (After): 8.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:37 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 6 at NMSU 44) Jonah Johnson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 45 - NMSU 0, HAW 3 -0.77 8.6% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 55

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.06 - 1.83 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.17)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.6%

Win Probability (After): 8.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:37 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 5 at NMSU 45) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to TEAM - NMSU 0, HAW 3 -1.88 8.1% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.83 - 1.06 = -1.88

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.94)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.1%

Win Probability (After): 7.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:37 ESPN team id 166 (4th & 5 at NMSU 45) Josh Carlson punt for 47 yds - NMSU 0, HAW 3 0.55 7.2% 1.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 92

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.27 - -0.83 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.83)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.27)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.2%

Win Probability (After): 8.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:52 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at HAW 8) Brayden Schager pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 7 - NMSU 0, HAW 3 -0.90 92.4% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 93

Started Drive at: HAW 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.77 - 0.13 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.13)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.4%

Win Probability (After): 90.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:52 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 11 at HAW 7) Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Calvin Turner Jr. - NMSU 0, HAW 3 -0.93 91.6% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 93

Started Drive at: HAW 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.82 - -0.90 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.10)

Score Difference (End): 3 (1.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:52 ESPN team id 62 (3rd & 11 at HAW 7) Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Calvin Turner Jr., broken up by Caleb Mills - NMSU 0, HAW 3 -0.94 90.7% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 93

Started Drive at: HAW 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.76 - -1.82 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): 3 (1.18)

Score Difference (End): 3 (0.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.7%

Win Probability (After): 89.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:52 ESPN team id 62 (4th & 11 at HAW 7) Matthew Shipley punt for 33 yds, downed at the Hawa 40 - NMSU 0, HAW 3 -0.64 89.8% -1.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 40

Started Drive at: HAW 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.41 - -2.76 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 3 (0.24)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.41)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.8%

Win Probability (After): 88.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:08 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 40) Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the Hawa 39 - NMSU 0, HAW 3 -0.56 10.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 39

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 3.38 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.38)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.8%

Win Probability (After): 10.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:08 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 9 at HAW 39) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete - NMSU 0, HAW 3 -0.99 10.2% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.80 - 2.79 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.21)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.2%

Win Probability (After): 9.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:08 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 9 at HAW 39) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete - NMSU 0, HAW 3 -1.97 9.2% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.17 - 1.80 = -1.97

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.20)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.2%

Win Probability (After): 8.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:08 ESPN team id 166 (4th & 9 at HAW 39) HAWAII Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Hawa 24 for a 1ST down - NMSU 0, HAW 3 4.35 8.0% 3.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 24

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.18 - -0.17 = 4.35

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.17)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.0%

Win Probability (After): 11.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:08 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 24) Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the Hawa 20 - NMSU 0, HAW 3 0.05 11.3% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 20

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.24 - 4.18 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.18)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.3%

Win Probability (After): 11.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:08 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 6 at HAW 20) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Thomaz Whitford, broken up by Isaiah Tufaga - NMSU 0, HAW 3 -0.77 11.7% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 4.24 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.24)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.7%

Win Probability (After): 11.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:08 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 6 at HAW 20) NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Doro Omerhi) to the Hawa 25 - NMSU 0, HAW 3 -1.00 11.3% -1.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 25

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 3.47 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.47)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.3%

Win Probability (After): 9.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:08 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 11 at HAW 25) HAWAII Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Hawa 20 - NMSU 0, HAW 3 1.00 9.7% 1.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 20

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 2.47 = 1.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.53)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.7%

Win Probability (After): 11.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:56 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 6 at HAW 20) Timeout HAWAII, clock 05:56 - NMSU 0, HAW 3 0.00 13.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 3.47 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.47)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.4%

Win Probability (After): 13.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:56 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 6 at HAW 20) Jonah Johnson run for 7 yds to the Hawa 13 for a 1ST down - NMSU 0, HAW 3 1.41 12.8% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 13

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.91 - 3.50 = 1.41

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.50)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.8%

Win Probability (After): 14.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:56 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 13) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda, broken up by Cortez Davis - NMSU 0, HAW 3 -0.57 14.1% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 13

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 4.91 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.91)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.1%

Win Probability (After): 13.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:56 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 10 at HAW 13) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Cole Harrity, broken up by Hugh Nelson II - NMSU 0, HAW 3 -0.77 13.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 13

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.57 - 4.34 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.34)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.1%

Win Probability (After): 12.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:56 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 10 at HAW 13) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for 4 yds to the Hawa 9 - NMSU 0, HAW 3 -0.85 12.5% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 9

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.72 - 3.57 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.57)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 0, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.5%

Win Probability (After): 11.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 4:41 ESPN team id 166 (4th & 6 at HAW 9) Ethan Albertson 27 yd FG GOOD - NMSU 3, HAW 3 0.26 13.3% 0.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 65

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.74 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.26)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.3%

Win Probability (After): 14.1%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:41 ESPN team id 62 (Kickoff at HAW 35) Ethan Albertson kickoff for 57 yds , Tru Edwards return for 13 yds to the Hawa 21 - NMSU 3, HAW 3 -0.21 85.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 79

Started Drive at: HAW 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 1.07 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.8%

Win Probability (After): 85.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:36 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at HAW 21) Calvin Turner Jr. run for 11 yds to the Hawa 32 for a 1ST down - NMSU 3, HAW 3 0.89 85.4% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 68

Started Drive at: HAW 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.75 - 0.86 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.4%

Win Probability (After): 86.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:36 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at HAW 32) Calvin Turner Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Hawa 31 - NMSU 3, HAW 3 -1.17 86.7% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 69

Started Drive at: HAW 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - 1.75 = -1.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.75)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.7%

Win Probability (After): 84.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:36 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 11 at HAW 31) Brayden Schager pass complete to Jared Smart for 6 yds Jared Smart fumbled, recovered by Hawa - NMSU 3, HAW 3 0.25 84.9% 0.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 63

Started Drive at: HAW 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 0.58 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.58)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.9%

Win Probability (After): 85.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:36 ESPN team id 62 (3rd & 5 at HAW 37) NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Nick Giacolone) to the Hawa 43 for a 1ST down - NMSU 3, HAW 3 1.52 85.6% 2.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 57

Started Drive at: HAW 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 0.83 = 1.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.83)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.6%

Win Probability (After): 87.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:36 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at HAW 43) Brayden Schager run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST down - NMSU 3, HAW 3 0.83 87.8% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 45

Started Drive at: HAW 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.18 - 2.35 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.8%

Win Probability (After): 88.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:36 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at NMSU 45) Dedrick Parson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 41 - NMSU 3, HAW 3 -0.06 88.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 41

Started Drive at: HAW 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.13 - 3.18 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.3%

Win Probability (After): 88.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:36 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 6 at NMSU 41) Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Mardner for 10 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST down - NMSU 3, HAW 3 0.95 88.2% 1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 31

Started Drive at: HAW 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 3.13 = 0.95

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.2%

Win Probability (After): 89.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:36 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at NMSU 31) Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 10 yds to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST down - NMSU 3, HAW 3 0.62 89.7% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 21

Started Drive at: HAW 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.70 - 4.08 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.7%

Win Probability (After): 90.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:36 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at NMSU 21) Dedrick Parson run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST down - NMSU 3, HAW 3 0.67 90.4% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 9

Started Drive at: HAW 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.37 - 4.70 = 0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.70)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 3

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.4%

Win Probability (After): 91.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:12 ESPN team id 62 (1st & Goal at NMSU 9) Dedrick Parson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) - NMSU 3, HAW 10 1.63 87.9% 6.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: HAW 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.37 = 1.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.37)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.9%

Win Probability (After): 94.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 3 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:12 ESPN team id 166 (Kickoff at NMSU 35) Kyler Halvorsen kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NMSU 3, HAW 10 0.00 8.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.14 - 0.14 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.86)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.1%

Win Probability (After): 8.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 1:12 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at NMSU 25) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - NMSU 3, HAW 10 1.90 8.1% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 50

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.04 - 0.14 = 1.90

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.86)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.1%

Win Probability (After): 9.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 1:12 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at 50) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda, broken up by Cortez Davis - NMSU 3, HAW 10 -0.58 9.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - 2.04 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.96)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.1%

Win Probability (After): 8.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 1:12 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 10 at 50) Juwaun Price run for 11 yds to the Hawa 39 for a 1ST down - NMSU 3, HAW 10 1.47 8.8% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 39

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 1.46 = 1.47

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.54)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.8%

Win Probability (After): 10.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 1:12 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 39) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete - NMSU 3, HAW 10 -0.63 10.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 2.92 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.08)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.0%

Win Probability (After): 9.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 10 at HAW 39) Juwaun Price run for 9 yds to the Hawa 30 - NMSU 3, HAW 10 0.90 8.3% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 30

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.18 - 2.27 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.73)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.3%

Win Probability (After): 8.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 1 at HAW 30) Jonah Johnson run for 6 yds to the Hawa 24 for a 1ST down - NMSU 3, HAW 10 0.70 8.9% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 24

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.87 - 3.18 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.82)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.9%

Win Probability (After): 9.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 24) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Cole Harrity - NMSU 3, HAW 10 -0.58 9.8% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.30 - 3.87 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.13)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.8%

Win Probability (After): 9.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:38 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 10 at HAW 24) Jonah Johnson pass intercepted for a TD Khoury Bethley return for 79 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) - NMSU 3, HAW 17 -10.32 11.0% -7.4%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 99

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.32 = -10.32

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.68)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 130 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.0%

Win Probability (After): 3.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:38 ESPN team id 166 (Kickoff at NMSU 35) Kyler Halvorsen kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NMSU 3, HAW 17 0.00 2.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.51 - -0.51 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.51)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.9%

Win Probability (After): 2.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:38 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at NMSU 25) Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27 - NMSU 3, HAW 17 -0.50 2.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.01 - -0.51 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.51)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.9%

Win Probability (After): 2.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:38 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 8 at NMSU 27) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda, broken up by Cortez Davis - NMSU 3, HAW 17 -0.90 2.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.91 - -1.01 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.01)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.8%

Win Probability (After): 2.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:38 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 8 at NMSU 27) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Lawrence Dixon for 7 yds to the NMxSt 34 - NMSU 3, HAW 17 0.23 2.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 66

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.68 - -1.91 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.91)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.6%

Win Probability (After): 2.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:38 ESPN team id 166 (4th & 1 at NMSU 34) Josh Carlson punt for 40 yds - NMSU 3, HAW 17 -0.99 2.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 74

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.67 - -1.68 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.68)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.67)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.7%

Win Probability (After): 2.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 12:09 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at HAW 26) Dedrick Parson run for 1 yd to the Hawa 27 - NMSU 3, HAW 17 -0.58 97.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 73

Started Drive at: HAW 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.99 - 2.58 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.58)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.3%

Win Probability (After): 97.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:09 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 9 at HAW 27) Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Mardner for 10 yds to the Hawa 37 for a 1ST down - NMSU 3, HAW 17 1.15 97.2% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 63

Started Drive at: HAW 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.07 - 1.92 = 1.15

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.92)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.2%

Win Probability (After): 97.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:09 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at HAW 37) Calvin Turner Jr. run for 3 yds to the Hawa 40 - NMSU 3, HAW 17 -0.34 97.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 60

Started Drive at: HAW 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.73 - 3.07 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.07)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.4%

Win Probability (After): 97.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:09 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 7 at HAW 40) Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 16 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST down - NMSU 3, HAW 17 1.22 97.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 44

Started Drive at: HAW 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.95 - 2.73 = 1.22

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.73)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.4%

Win Probability (After): 97.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:09 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at NMSU 44) Brayden Schager pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 46 - NMSU 3, HAW 17 -1.02 97.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 46

Started Drive at: HAW 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.93 - 3.95 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.95)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.6%

Win Probability (After): 97.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:09 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 12 at NMSU 46) Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 13 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST down - NMSU 3, HAW 17 1.56 97.5% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 33

Started Drive at: HAW 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 2.93 = 1.56

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.93)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.5%

Win Probability (After): 97.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:09 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at NMSU 33) Dedrick Parson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 31 - NMSU 3, HAW 17 -0.51 97.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 31

Started Drive at: HAW 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.98 - 4.49 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.49)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.6%

Win Probability (After): 97.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:09 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 8 at NMSU 31) Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for 7 yds to the NMxSt 24 - NMSU 3, HAW 17 0.41 97.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 24

Started Drive at: HAW 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.39 - 3.98 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.98)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.6%

Win Probability (After): 97.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:09 ESPN team id 62 (3rd & 1 at NMSU 24) Dedrick Parson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 17 for a 1ST down - NMSU 3, HAW 17 0.87 97.6% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 17

Started Drive at: HAW 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.26 - 4.39 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.39)

Score Difference (End): 14 (19.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.6%

Win Probability (After): 97.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:09 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at NMSU 17) Brayden Schager pass complete to Caleb Phillips for 5 yds Caleb Phillips fumbled, forced by Chris Ojoh, recovered by Hawa Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala - NMSU 3, HAW 17 -0.13 97.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 12

Started Drive at: HAW 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.13 - 5.26 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): 14 (19.26)

Score Difference (End): 14 (19.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.9%

Win Probability (After): 97.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:09 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 5 at NMSU 12) Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 11 yds to the NMxSt 1 for a 1ST down - NMSU 3, HAW 17 1.41 97.9% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 1

Started Drive at: HAW 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.54 - 5.13 = 1.41

Score Difference (Before): 14 (19.13)

Score Difference (End): 14 (20.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.9%

Win Probability (After): 98.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:56 ESPN team id 62 (1st & Goal at NMSU 1) Dedrick Parson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) - NMSU 3, HAW 24 0.53 98.0% 0.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: HAW 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.47 = 0.53

Score Difference (Before): 14 (20.47)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.0%

Win Probability (After): 99.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:56 ESPN team id 166 (Kickoff at NMSU 35) Kyler Halvorsen kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NMSU 3, HAW 24 0.00 1.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.30 - -0.30 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.30)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-21.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.4%

Win Probability (After): 1.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:56 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at NMSU 25) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Juwaun Price - NMSU 3, HAW 24 -0.57 1.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.87 - -0.30 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.30)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-21.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.4%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:56 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 10 at NMSU 25) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 10 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST down - NMSU 3, HAW 24 1.46 1.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.59 - -0.87 = 1.46

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.87)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-20.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:56 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at NMSU 35) Alex Escobar run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 37 - NMSU 3, HAW 24 -0.55 1.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 63

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.04 - 0.59 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.41)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-20.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.4%

Win Probability (After): 1.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:56 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 8 at NMSU 37) Jonah Johnson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 44 - NMSU 3, HAW 24 0.79 1.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 56

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - 0.04 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.96)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-20.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 3, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.4%

Win Probability (After): 1.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:05 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 1 at NMSU 44) Juwaun Price run for 56 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) - NMSU 10, HAW 24 5.80 1.5% 2.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 99

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.20 = 5.80

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-19.80)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 10, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.5%

Win Probability (After): 3.7%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:05 ESPN team id 62 (Kickoff at HAW 35) Ethan Albertson kickoff for 58 yds , Calvin Turner Jr. return for 19 yds to the Hawa 26 Calvin Turner Jr. fumbled, forced by Andre Bodison, recovered by Hawa - NMSU 10, HAW 24 0.13 96.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 74

Started Drive at: HAW 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - 1.68 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.68)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 10, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:57 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at HAW 26) Dedrick Parson run for 5 yds to the Hawa 31 - NMSU 10, HAW 24 -0.17 96.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 69

Started Drive at: HAW 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.65 - 1.82 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.82)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 10, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:57 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 5 at HAW 31) Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 2 yds to the Hawa 33 - NMSU 10, HAW 24 -0.55 96.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 67

Started Drive at: HAW 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.11 - 1.66 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.66)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 10, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.6%

Win Probability (After): 96.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:57 ESPN team id 62 (3rd & 3 at HAW 33) Brayden Schager pass complete to Tamatoa Mokiao-Atimalala for a loss of 4 yards to the Hawa 29 - NMSU 10, HAW 24 -1.90 96.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 71

Started Drive at: HAW 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.79 - 1.11 = -1.90

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.11)

Score Difference (End): 14 (13.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 10, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.6%

Win Probability (After): 96.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:57 ESPN team id 62 (4th & 7 at HAW 29) Matthew Shipley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 29 - NMSU 10, HAW 24 -0.03 96.3% -0.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: HAW 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.82 - -0.79 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): 14 (13.21)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.18)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NMSU 10, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.3%

Win Probability (After): 95.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 3:05 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at NMSU 29) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda - NMSU 10, HAW 24 -0.73 5.5% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: NMSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.16 - 0.89 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.11)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 10, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.5%

Win Probability (After): 3.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:05 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 10 at NMSU 29) Jonah Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 26 - NMSU 10, HAW 24 -0.87 5.3% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 74

Started Drive at: NMSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.55 - 0.32 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.68)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 10, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.3%

Win Probability (After): 4.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:05 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 13 at NMSU 26) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda - NMSU 10, HAW 24 -0.88 4.3% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: NMSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.44 - -0.55 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.55)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 10, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.3%

Win Probability (After): 3.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:05 ESPN team id 166 (4th & 13 at NMSU 26) Josh Carlson punt for 34 yds , Koali Nishigaya returns for 2 yds to the Hawa 42 Koali Nishigaya fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Austin Reeves - NMSU 10, HAW 24 3.83 3.8% 2.1%

Play Type: Punt Team Fumble Recovery

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 42

Started Drive at: NMSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - -1.44 = 3.83

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.44)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 10, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.8%

Win Probability (After): 5.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:08 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 42) Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the Hawa 40 - NMSU 10, HAW 24 0.02 6.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 40

Started Drive at: HAW 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 2.22 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.78)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 10, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.1%

Win Probability (After): 5.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:08 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 8 at HAW 40) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for 5 yds to the Hawa 35 - NMSU 10, HAW 24 0.22 6.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 35

Started Drive at: HAW 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.32 - 2.09 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.91)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 10, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.0%

Win Probability (After): 5.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:08 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 3 at HAW 35) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 3 yds to the Hawa 32 for a 1ST down - NMSU 10, HAW 24 0.80 5.9% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 32

Started Drive at: HAW 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.12 - 2.32 = 0.80

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.68)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 10, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.9%

Win Probability (After): 6.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:08 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 32) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete - NMSU 10, HAW 24 -0.41 6.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 32

Started Drive at: HAW 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.71 - 3.12 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.88)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 10, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.3%

Win Probability (After): 6.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:08 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 10 at HAW 32) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Cole Harrity for 6 yds to the Hawa 26 - NMSU 10, HAW 24 0.27 6.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 26

Started Drive at: HAW 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.97 - 2.71 = 0.27

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.29)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 10, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.1%

Win Probability (After): 6.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:08 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 4 at HAW 26) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Andre Bodison - NMSU 10, HAW 24 -1.22 6.0% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: HAW 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.75 - 2.97 = -1.22

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.03)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 10, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.0%

Win Probability (After): 5.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:40 ESPN team id 166 (4th & 4 at HAW 26) Timeout HAWAII, clock 00:40 - NMSU 10, HAW 24 0.00 5.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: HAW 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.75 - 1.75 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.25)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 10, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.9%

Win Probability (After): 5.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:34 ESPN team id 166 (4th & 4 at HAW 26) Ethan Albertson 44 yd FG GOOD - NMSU 13, HAW 24 0.98 6.0% 1.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 65

Started Drive at: HAW 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.02 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.98)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.0%

Win Probability (After): 7.2%

Away Score: 10 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:34 ESPN team id 62 (Kickoff at HAW 35) Ethan Albertson kickoff for 59 yds , Tru Edwards return for 19 yds to the Hawa 25 - NMSU 13, HAW 24 0.00 95.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.50 - 0.50 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.50)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.2%

Win Probability (After): 95.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:30 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at HAW 25) Dedrick Parson run for 5 yds to the Hawa 30 - NMSU 13, HAW 24 -0.41 95.2% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 0.41 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.41)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 62 (Kickoff at HAW 35) Ethan Albertson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NMSU 13, HAW 24 0.00 96.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.96 - 1.96 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.96)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at HAW 25) Brayden Schager pass complete to Dedrick Parson for 2 yds to the Hawa 27 - NMSU 13, HAW 24 -0.46 96.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.50 - 1.96 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.96)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 8 at HAW 27) HAWAII Penalty, false start (Kohl Levao) to the Hawa 22 - NMSU 13, HAW 24 -0.53 96.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 78

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.97 - 1.50 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.50)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.1%

Win Probability (After): 96.0%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 13 at HAW 22) Dedrick Parson run for no gain to the Hawa 22 - NMSU 13, HAW 24 -1.09 96.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.12 - 0.97 = -1.09

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.97)

Score Difference (End): 11 (10.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.0%

Win Probability (After): 95.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 62 (3rd & 13 at HAW 22) Brayden Schager pass complete to Jared Smart for 26 yds to the Hawa 48 for a 1ST down - NMSU 13, HAW 24 3.42 95.7% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 52

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.30 - -0.12 = 3.42

Score Difference (Before): 11 (10.88)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at HAW 48) Dedrick Parson run for 15 yds to the HAWAII 37 HAWAII Penalty, Offensive holding (Nick Mardner) to the NMxSt 47 - NMSU 13, HAW 24 0.65 96.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 47

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.95 - 3.30 = 0.65

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.30)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.3%

Win Probability (After): 96.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 5 at NMSU 47) Dedrick Parson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 45 - NMSU 13, HAW 24 -0.31 96.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 45

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.64 - 3.95 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.95)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.4%

Win Probability (After): 96.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 3 at NMSU 45) Brayden Schager run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST down - NMSU 13, HAW 24 0.37 96.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 40

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.01 - 3.64 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.64)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.4%

Win Probability (After): 96.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at NMSU 40) Dedrick Parson run for no gain to the NMxSt 40 - NMSU 13, HAW 24 -0.63 96.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.39 - 4.01 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.01)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.4%

Win Probability (After): 96.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 10 at NMSU 40) Brayden Schager sacked by Chris Ojoh for a loss of 10 yards to the 50 yard line Brayden Schager fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Michael Bowe Jr. , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard line - NMSU 13, HAW 24 -5.23 96.3% -2.5%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 50

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.85 - 3.39 = -5.23

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.39)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.15)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.3%

Win Probability (After): 93.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:27 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at 50) Juwaun Price run for 3 yds to the Hawa 47 - NMSU 13, HAW 24 -0.03 6.5% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 47

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.63 - 1.66 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.34)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.5%

Win Probability (After): 6.0%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:27 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 7 at HAW 47) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 15 yds to the Hawa 32 for a 1ST down - NMSU 13, HAW 24 1.87 6.4% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 32

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.29 - 1.42 = 1.87

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.58)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 7.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:27 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 32) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda - NMSU 13, HAW 24 -0.69 7.3% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 32

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.60 - 3.29 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.71)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.3%

Win Probability (After): 6.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:27 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 10 at HAW 32) Jonah Johnson run for 10 yds to the Hawa 22 for a 1ST down - NMSU 13, HAW 24 1.55 6.9% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 22

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.14 - 2.60 = 1.55

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.40)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-6.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.9%

Win Probability (After): 9.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:27 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 10 at HAW 22) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 9 yds to the Hawa 13 - NMSU 13, HAW 24 0.86 8.3% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 13

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.40 - 3.54 = 0.86

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.46)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-6.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.3%

Win Probability (After): 9.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:27 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 1 at HAW 13) Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the Hawa 11 for a 1ST down - NMSU 13, HAW 24 0.37 9.9% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 11

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.77 - 4.40 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.60)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-6.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.9%

Win Probability (After): 10.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:27 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 11) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 10 yds to the Hawa 1 for a 1ST down - NMSU 13, HAW 24 1.58 10.5% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 1

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.36 - 4.77 = 1.58

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.23)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-4.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.5%

Win Probability (After): 12.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:27 ESPN team id 166 (1st & Goal at HAW 1) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Thomaz Whitford - NMSU 13, HAW 24 -0.30 12.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 1

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.06 - 6.36 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-4.64)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-4.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 13, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.7%

Win Probability (After): 12.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:01 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & Goal at HAW 1) Jonah Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) - NMSU 20, HAW 24 0.91 11.9% 4.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.09 = 0.91

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-4.91)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.9%

Win Probability (After): 16.5%

Away Score: 13 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:01 ESPN team id 62 (Kickoff at HAW 35) Ethan Albertson kickoff for 65 yds , Tru Edwards return for 23 yds to the Hawa 23 - NMSU 20, HAW 24 -0.09 85.5% -0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 77

Started Drive at: HAW 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.38 - 1.46 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.46)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.5%

Win Probability (After): 85.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:52 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at HAW 23) Dedrick Parson run for 11 yds to the Hawa 34 for a 1ST down - NMSU 20, HAW 24 0.86 85.5% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 66

Started Drive at: HAW 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.23 - 1.38 = 0.86

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.38)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.5%

Win Probability (After): 86.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:52 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at HAW 34) Dedrick Parson run for 21 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST down - NMSU 20, HAW 24 1.12 86.1% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 45

Started Drive at: HAW 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.35 - 2.23 = 1.12

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.23)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.1%

Win Probability (After): 88.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:52 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at NMSU 45) Dedrick Parson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 39 - NMSU 20, HAW 24 0.25 88.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 39

Started Drive at: HAW 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.60 - 3.35 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.35)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.7%

Win Probability (After): 88.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:52 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 4 at NMSU 39) Dedrick Parson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST down - NMSU 20, HAW 24 0.29 88.7% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 35

Started Drive at: HAW 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.89 - 3.60 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.60)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.7%

Win Probability (After): 89.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:52 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at NMSU 35) Nasjzae Bryant run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 33 - NMSU 20, HAW 24 -0.34 89.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 33

Started Drive at: HAW 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.55 - 3.89 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.89)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.3%

Win Probability (After): 88.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:52 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 8 at NMSU 33) Brayden Schager pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 6 yds to the NMxSt 27 - NMSU 20, HAW 24 0.26 88.7% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 27

Started Drive at: HAW 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.81 - 3.55 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.55)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.7%

Win Probability (After): 89.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:52 ESPN team id 62 (3rd & 2 at NMSU 27) Brayden Schager pass complete to Koali Nishigaya for 13 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST down - NMSU 20, HAW 24 1.29 89.1% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 14

Started Drive at: HAW 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.09 - 3.81 = 1.29

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.81)

Score Difference (End): 4 (9.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.1%

Win Probability (After): 90.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:52 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at NMSU 14) HAWAII Penalty, false start (Gene Pryor) to the NMxSt 19 - NMSU 20, HAW 24 -0.68 90.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 19

Started Drive at: HAW 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.41 - 5.09 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): 4 (9.09)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.5%

Win Probability (After): 90.2%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:52 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 15 at NMSU 19) Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Jared Smart - NMSU 20, HAW 24 -0.67 90.2% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: HAW 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.74 - 4.41 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.41)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.2%

Win Probability (After): 89.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:52 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 15 at NMSU 19) Brayden Schager pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 9 yds to the NMxSt 10 - NMSU 20, HAW 24 0.34 89.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 10

Started Drive at: HAW 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.07 - 3.74 = 0.34

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.74)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.7%

Win Probability (After): 89.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:36 ESPN team id 62 (3rd & 6 at NMSU 10) Timeout HAWAII, clock 04:36 - NMSU 20, HAW 24 0.00 87.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: HAW 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.07 - 4.07 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.07)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.8%

Win Probability (After): 87.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:36 ESPN team id 62 (3rd & 6 at NMSU 10) Brayden Schager pass incomplete to Calvin Turner Jr. - NMSU 20, HAW 24 -1.30 87.3% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: HAW 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.84 - 4.14 = -1.30

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.14)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 24

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.3%

Win Probability (After): 86.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:27 ESPN team id 62 (4th & 6 at NMSU 10) Matthew Shipley 27 yd FG GOOD - NMSU 20, HAW 27 0.15 85.9% 3.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 65

Started Drive at: HAW 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.85 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.85)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 27

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.9%

Win Probability (After): 89.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 24 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 4:27 ESPN team id 166 (Kickoff at NMSU 35) Kyler Halvorsen kickoff for 61 yds , Juwaun Price return for 11 yds to the NMxSt 15 - NMSU 20, HAW 27 -0.36 9.9% -0.4%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 85

Started Drive at: NMSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.41 - -0.05 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.05)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 27

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.9%

Win Probability (After): 9.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:23 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at NMSU 15) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 9 yds to the NMxSt 24 - NMSU 20, HAW 27 0.69 9.5% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 76

Started Drive at: NMSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.28 - -0.41 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.41)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.5%

Win Probability (After): 10.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:23 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 1 at NMSU 24) Alex Escobar run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST down - NMSU 20, HAW 27 0.46 10.1% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 68

Started Drive at: NMSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.74 - 0.28 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.72)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.1%

Win Probability (After): 10.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:23 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at NMSU 32) Jonah Johnson run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 34 - NMSU 20, HAW 27 -0.43 10.6% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 66

Started Drive at: NMSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.31 - 0.74 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.26)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.6%

Win Probability (After): 10.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:23 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 8 at NMSU 34) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 9 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST down - NMSU 20, HAW 27 1.16 10.0% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 57

Started Drive at: NMSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 0.31 = 1.16

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.69)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 27

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.0%

Win Probability (After): 11.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:23 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at NMSU 43) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda - NMSU 20, HAW 27 -0.56 11.8% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: NMSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - 1.47 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.53)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.8%

Win Probability (After): 11.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:23 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 10 at NMSU 43) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 11 yds to the Hawa 46 for a 1ST down - NMSU 20, HAW 27 1.39 11.1% 4.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 46

Started Drive at: NMSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 0.91 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.09)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 20, HAW 27

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.1%

Win Probability (After): 15.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:30 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 46) Juwaun Price run for 46 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) - NMSU 27, HAW 27 4.59 14.9% 13.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 99

Started Drive at: NMSU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.41 = 4.59

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.59)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 27

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.9%

Win Probability (After): 28.0%

Away Score: 20 (27) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:30 ESPN team id 62 (Kickoff at HAW 35) Ethan Albertson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NMSU 27, HAW 27 0.00 71.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.17 - 1.17 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 27

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.2%

Win Probability (After): 71.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:18 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at HAW 25) Calvin Turner Jr. run for 75 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) - NMSU 27, HAW 34 5.84 71.2% 18.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.16 = 5.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.16)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.2%

Win Probability (After): 89.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 27 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:18 ESPN team id 166 (Kickoff at NMSU 35) Kyler Halvorsen kickoff for 62 yds , Juwaun Price return for 7 yds to the NMxSt 42 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, illegal block (Andre Bodison) to the NMxSt 5 - NMSU 27, HAW 34 -1.06 11.0% -1.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 95

Started Drive at: NMSU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.91 - 0.14 = -1.06

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-15.00)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 34

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.0%

Win Probability (After): 10.0%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:13 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at NMSU 5) Juwaun Price run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 13 - NMSU 27, HAW 34 0.51 11.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 95 -> 87

Started Drive at: NMSU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - -0.91 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.91)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.2%

Win Probability (After): 10.3%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:13 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 2 at NMSU 13) Jonah Johnson run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST down - NMSU 27, HAW 34 0.54 11.4% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 75

Started Drive at: NMSU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.14 - -0.40 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.40)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.4%

Win Probability (After): 12.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:13 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at NMSU 25) Jonah Johnson run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30 - NMSU 27, HAW 34 0.15 12.5% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: NMSU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.29 - 0.14 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.86)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.5%

Win Probability (After): 12.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 5 at NMSU 30) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Cole Harrity - NMSU 27, HAW 34 -0.92 12.0% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: NMSU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.62 - 0.29 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.71)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 34

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.0%

Win Probability (After): 10.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 5 at NMSU 30) Jonah Johnson run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST down - NMSU 27, HAW 34 1.87 10.9% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 62

Started Drive at: NMSU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.25 - -0.62 = 1.87

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.62)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 34

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.9%

Win Probability (After): 13.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at NMSU 38) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 6 yds to the NMxSt 44 - NMSU 27, HAW 34 0.35 13.4% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 56

Started Drive at: NMSU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 1.25 = 0.35

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.75)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 34

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.4%

Win Probability (After): 13.7%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 4 at NMSU 44) Juwaun Price run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 47 - NMSU 27, HAW 34 -0.13 13.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 53

Started Drive at: NMSU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 1.60 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.40)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 34

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.7%

Win Probability (After): 13.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 1 at NMSU 47) Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST down - NMSU 27, HAW 34 0.79 13.5% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 49

Started Drive at: NMSU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.26 - 1.47 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.53)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 34

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.5%

Win Probability (After): 14.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 49) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 16 yds to the Hawa 33 for a 1ST down - NMSU 27, HAW 34 1.21 14.5% 4.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 33

Started Drive at: NMSU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 2.26 = 1.21

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.74)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 34

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.5%

Win Probability (After): 18.7%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:06 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 33) Jonah Johnson pass intercepted for a TD Darius Muasau return for 75 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) - NMSU 27, HAW 41 -10.49 14.2% -11.4%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 99

Started Drive at: NMSU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.49 = -10.49

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.51)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 137 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.2%

Win Probability (After): 2.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 34 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:06 ESPN team id 166 (Kickoff at NMSU 35) Kyler Halvorsen kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NMSU 27, HAW 41 0.00 2.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.50 - -0.50 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.50)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.8%

Win Probability (After): 2.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:06 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at NMSU 25) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33 - NMSU 27, HAW 41 0.73 2.8% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.23 - -0.50 = 0.73

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.50)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.8%

Win Probability (After): 3.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:06 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 2 at NMSU 33) Alex Escobar run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST down - NMSU 27, HAW 41 0.31 3.2% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 63

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.54 - 0.23 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.77)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.2%

Win Probability (After): 3.3%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:06 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at NMSU 37) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 12 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST down - NMSU 27, HAW 41 0.90 3.3% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 51

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.45 - 0.54 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.46)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.3%

Win Probability (After): 3.7%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:06 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at NMSU 49) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Andre Bodison - NMSU 27, HAW 41 -0.67 3.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 51

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.77 - 1.45 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.55)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.7%

Win Probability (After): 3.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:06 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 10 at NMSU 49) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda - NMSU 27, HAW 41 -0.91 3.4% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 51

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.13 - 0.77 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.23)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.4%

Win Probability (After): 2.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:06 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 10 at NMSU 49) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 9 yds to the Hawa 42 - NMSU 27, HAW 41 0.67 2.9% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 42

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.54 - -0.13 = 0.67

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.13)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.9%

Win Probability (After): 3.3%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:06 ESPN team id 166 (4th & 1 at HAW 42) Jonah Johnson run for 21 yds to the Hawa 21 for a 1ST down - NMSU 27, HAW 41 3.54 3.3% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 21

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 0.54 = 3.54

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.46)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.3%

Win Probability (After): 5.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:27 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 21) Timeout HAWAII, clock 09:27 - NMSU 27, HAW 41 0.00 5.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 4.08 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.92)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.1%

Win Probability (After): 5.1%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 9:27 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 21) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda - NMSU 27, HAW 41 -0.65 5.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 4.09 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.91)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.1%

Win Probability (After): 4.8%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 9:27 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 10 at HAW 21) Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the Hawa 17 - NMSU 27, HAW 41 -0.06 4.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 17

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.38 - 3.44 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.56)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.8%

Win Probability (After): 4.6%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 9:27 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 6 at HAW 17) Jonah Johnson run for no gain to the Hawa 17 - NMSU 27, HAW 41 -1.57 4.6% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - 3.38 = -1.57

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.62)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.6%

Win Probability (After): 3.0%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 9:27 ESPN team id 166 (4th & 6 at HAW 17) HAWAII Penalty, Defensive holding (Quentin Frazier) to the Hawa 7 for a 1ST down - NMSU 27, HAW 41 3.46 3.0% 3.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 7

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.28 - 1.81 = 3.46

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.19)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-8.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 27, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.0%

Win Probability (After): 6.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 7:48 ESPN team id 166 (1st & Goal at HAW 7) Jonah Johnson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) - NMSU 34, HAW 41 1.73 5.3% 4.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.27 = 1.73

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-8.73)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.3%

Win Probability (After): 9.9%

Away Score: 27 (34) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 7:48 ESPN team id 62 (Kickoff at HAW 35) Ethan Albertson kickoff for 54 yds - NMSU 34, HAW 41 0.00 92.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 1.56 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.56)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.2%

Win Probability (After): 92.2%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:48 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at HAW 25) Calvin Turner Jr. run for 5 yds to the Hawa 30 - NMSU 34, HAW 41 0.00 92.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 1.56 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.56)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.2%

Win Probability (After): 92.1%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:48 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 5 at HAW 30) Calvin Turner Jr. run for 1 yd to the Hawa 31 - NMSU 34, HAW 41 -0.70 92.1% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 69

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.87 - 1.56 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.56)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.1%

Win Probability (After): 90.6%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:48 ESPN team id 62 (3rd & 4 at HAW 31) Brayden Schager pass complete to Calvin Turner Jr. for 18 yds to the Hawa 49 for a 1ST down - NMSU 34, HAW 41 2.03 90.6% 3.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 51

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.89 - 0.87 = 2.03

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.87)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.6%

Win Probability (After): 94.1%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:48 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at HAW 49) Brayden Schager pass complete to Caleb Phillips for a loss of 6 yards to the Hawa 43 - NMSU 34, HAW 41 -1.27 94.1% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 57

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.62 - 2.89 = -1.27

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.89)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.1%

Win Probability (After): 92.7%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:48 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 16 at HAW 43) NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Michael Bowe Jr.) to the Hawa 48 - NMSU 34, HAW 41 0.41 92.7% 0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 52

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.04 - 1.62 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.62)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.7%

Win Probability (After): 92.8%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:48 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 11 at HAW 48) Brayden Schager pass complete to Jared Smart for 5 yds to the NMxSt 47 - NMSU 34, HAW 41 -0.08 92.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 47

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 2.04 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.04)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.8%

Win Probability (After): 92.6%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:48 ESPN team id 62 (3rd & 6 at NMSU 47) HAWAII Penalty, false start (Nick Mardner) to the Hawa 48 - NMSU 34, HAW 41 -0.81 92.6% -1.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 52

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - 1.95 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.95)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.6%

Win Probability (After): 91.2%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:48 ESPN team id 62 (3rd & 11 at HAW 48) Brayden Schager pass complete to Nick Mardner for 49 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST down - NMSU 34, HAW 41 4.99 91.2% 5.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 3

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.14 - 1.15 = 4.99

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.15)

Score Difference (End): 7 (13.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 41

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.8%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 41 (41)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:16 ESPN team id 62 (1st & Goal at NMSU 3) Dedrick Parson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK) - NMSU 34, HAW 48 1.02 98.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: HAW 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.98 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.98)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 48

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.4%

Win Probability (After): 98.5%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 41 (48)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:16 ESPN team id 166 (Kickoff at NMSU 35) Kyler Halvorsen kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NMSU 34, HAW 48 0.00 1.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.36 - 0.36 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.64)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 48

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 48 (48)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 4:16 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at NMSU 25) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33 - NMSU 34, HAW 48 0.44 1.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - 0.36 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.64)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 48

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.4%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 48 (48)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 4:16 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 2 at NMSU 33) Juwaun Price run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST down - NMSU 34, HAW 48 0.47 1.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 64

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.27 - 0.80 = 0.47

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.20)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 48

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.4%

Win Probability (After): 1.6%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 48 (48)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 4:16 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at NMSU 36) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - NMSU 34, HAW 48 0.72 1.6% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 50

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.99 - 1.27 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.73)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 48

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.6%

Win Probability (After): 2.0%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 48 (48)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 4:16 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at 50) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Alex Escobar - NMSU 34, HAW 48 -0.54 2.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.45 - 1.99 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.01)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 48

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.6%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 48 (48)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 4:16 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 10 at 50) Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 10 yds to the Hawa 40 for a 1ST down - NMSU 34, HAW 48 1.38 1.6% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 40

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.83 - 1.45 = 1.38

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.55)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 48

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.6%

Win Probability (After): 2.2%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 48 (48)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 4:16 ESPN team id 166 (1st & 10 at HAW 40) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Terrell Warner - NMSU 34, HAW 48 -0.52 2.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.32 - 2.83 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.17)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 48

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.2%

Win Probability (After): 2.1%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 48 (48)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 4:16 ESPN team id 166 (2nd & 10 at HAW 40) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Andre Bodison - NMSU 34, HAW 48 -0.70 2.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.61 - 2.32 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.68)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 48

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.1%

Win Probability (After): 1.5%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 48 (48)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 4:16 ESPN team id 166 (3rd & 10 at HAW 40) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Cole Harrity - NMSU 34, HAW 48 -1.48 1.5% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 1.61 = -1.48

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.39)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 48

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.5%

Win Probability (After): 1.1%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 48 (48)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 4:16 ESPN team id 166 (4th & 10 at HAW 40) Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda, broken up by Hugh Nelson II - NMSU 34, HAW 48 -2.33 1.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 60

Started Drive at: NMSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.20 - 0.13 = -2.33

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.87)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.20)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 48

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 48 (48)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:02 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at HAW 40) Dedrick Parson run for 8 yds to the Hawa 48 - NMSU 34, HAW 48 0.54 99.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 52

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.44 - 1.90 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.90)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 48

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 48 (48)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:02 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 2 at HAW 48) Dedrick Parson run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST down - NMSU 34, HAW 48 0.22 99.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 45

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 1.96 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.96)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 48

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 48 (48)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:39 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at NMSU 45) Timeout HAWAII, clock 00:39 - NMSU 34, HAW 48 0.00 99.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 2.18 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.18)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 48

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 48 (48)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:39 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at NMSU 45) Dedrick Parson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 39 - NMSU 34, HAW 48 0.63 99.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 39

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.09 - 1.46 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.46)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 48

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 48 (48)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:35 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 4 at NMSU 39) Timeout NEW MEXICO ST, clock 00:35 - NMSU 34, HAW 48 0.00 99.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.09 - 2.09 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.09)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 48

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 48 (48)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:35 ESPN team id 62 (2nd & 4 at NMSU 39) Dedrick Parson run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST down - NMSU 34, HAW 48 0.24 99.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 35

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.37 - 2.12 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.12)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 48

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 48 (48)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:30 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at NMSU 35) Timeout NEW MEXICO ST, clock 00:30 - NMSU 34, HAW 48 0.00 99.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.37 - 2.37 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.37)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 48

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 48 (48)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:30 ESPN team id 62 (1st & 10 at NMSU 35) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 36 - NMSU 34, HAW 48 -0.58 99.5% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 36

Started Drive at: HAW 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 2.14 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.14)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NMSU 34, HAW 48

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 48 (48)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3