San José State 27 @ UNLV 20

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 6.27 | Odds: SJSU -6, O/U 44.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 23 ESPN team id 2439
Total Plays 8286
Total EPA 10.86-4.84
  Offensive EPA 6.39-0.58
  Special Teams EPA 4.47-2.63
  Penalty EPA 0-1.92
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 0.000.29
Production ESPN team id 23 ESPN team id 2439
Scrimmage Plays 7474
  Yards 505366
  Yards/Play 6.824.95
  EPA 6.39-0.58
  EPA/Play 0.09-0.01
Passes 36 (49%)36 (49%)
  Yards 272256
  Yards/Play 7.567.11
  EPA 12.2811.57
  EPA/Play 0.340.32
Rushes 38 (51%)38 (51%)
  Yards 237137
  Yards/Play 6.413.61
  EPA -5.90-12.15
  EPA/Play -0.16-0.32
Rushing ESPN team id 23 ESPN team id 2439
Scrimmage Plays 7474
Rushes 38 (51%)38 (51%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 4 (11%)2 (5%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 1 (25%)1 (50%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 10 (26%)6 (16%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 15 (39%)14 (37%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 18 (47%)17 (45%)
OL Line Yards 62.172.7
  Per Carry 1.631.91
Highlight Yards 10622.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 5.891.32
Explosiveness ESPN team id 23 ESPN team id 2439
Total Plays 8286
Scrimmage Plays 7474
Explosive Plays 7 (9%)2 (3%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 3 (8%)2 (6%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 4 (11%)0 (0%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -14.51-6.88
  EPA/Play -0.22-0.10
  When Passing 2.305.26
    EPA/Play 0.060.15
  When Rushing -16.81-12.15
    EPA/Play -0.49-0.32
Situational ESPN team id 23 ESPN team id 2439
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 33 (45%)30 (41%)
  When Passing 17 (47%)17 (47%)
  When Rushing 16 (42%)13 (34%)
  On Standard Downs 20 (40%)19 (40%)
  On Passing Downs 13 (54%)11 (42%)
  On Early Downs 23 (41%)18 (33%)
  On Late Downs 10 (56%)12 (60%)
  During "Middle 8" 3 (50%)6 (43%)
Early Downs 5654
  First Downs Created 13 (23%)9 (17%)
  EPA 3.40-17.19
  EPA/Play 0.06-0.32
  Passes 26 (46%)23 (43%)
  Rushes 30 (54%)31 (57%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 11 (42%)8 (35%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 12 (40%)10 (32%)
"Middle 8" Plays 614
  EPA 4.64-2.48
  EPA/play 0.77-0.18
  Passes 3 (50%)3 (21%)
  Rushes 3 (50%)11 (79%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 2 (67%)2 (67%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 1 (33%)4 (36%)
Drives ESPN team id 23 ESPN team id 2439
Total 911
Avg Starting Field Position Own 25Own 25
Plays/Drive 9.4710.18
Yards/Drive 59.5145.62
Available Yards % 80%61%
Defensive ESPN team id 23 ESPN team id 2439
Scrimmage Plays 7474
Stop Rate 24%36%
Havoc Plays Created 9 (12%)8 (11%)
  Passing 5 (14%)3 (8%)
  Rushing 4 (11%)5 (13%)
TFLs Generated 84
  Passing 51
  Rushing 33
Sacks Generated 5 (14%)1 (3%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 00
Fumbles Forced 12
Turnovers ESPN team id 23 ESPN team id 2439
Turnovers 31
  Fumbles 41
  Fumbles Lost 31
  Fumbles Recovered 10
  Interceptions 00
Turnover Margin -22
Expected Turnovers 2.52.5
Expected Turnover Margin 0.00.0
Turnover Luck (pts) -10.010.0
Special Teams ESPN team id 23 ESPN team id 2439
Total Plays 8 12
Total EPA 4.47 -2.63
  Field Goal EPA 1.54 -2.04
  Punting EPA -1.41 -0.47
  Kickoff Return EPA 4.35 -0.12

San José State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Nick Nash 20/33, 272 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 72.7 xQBR 8.00 0.42 14.28 50% 20.0%
Rush attempts
Isaiah Holiness 1 carry, 54 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 54.00 3.83 3.83 100% 16.0%
Nick Nash 18 carries, 138 yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 7.67 0.19 3.37 56% 14.0%
Shamar Garrett 1 carry, 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 1.09 1.09 100% 1.0%
Tyler Nevens 17 carries, 36 yds, 2 TD, 2 Fum (2 lost) 2.12 -0.80 -13.54 24% -16.0%
Pass targets
Derrick Deese Jr. 8 catches (10 targets), 161 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 20.12 1.36 13.62 80% 32.0%
Charles Ross 7 catches (9 targets), 67 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.57 0.55 4.92 56% 2.0%
Jermaine Braddock 2 catches (3 targets), 22 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.00 0.19 0.57 67% -1.0%
Shamar Garrett 2 catches (4 targets), 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.50 -0.02 -0.08 50% -3.0%
Skylar Loving-Black 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.53 -0.53 0% -1.0%
Malikhi Miller 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.70 -0.70 0% -1.0%
Kairee Robinson 1 catch (2 targets), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 -0.41 -0.82 0% -1.0%
Isaiah Hamilton 0 catches (3 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.89 -2.68 0% -6.0%
Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Cameron Friel 21/30, 256 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 5 Scks, 67.7 xQBR 7.31 0.36 12.56 49% 19.0%
Rush attempts
Chad Magyar 1 carry, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.94 -0.94 0% -2.0%
Cameron Friel 10 carries, 34 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.40 -0.24 -2.37 20% -28.0%
Charles Williams 26 carries, 107 yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 4.12 -0.34 -8.81 42% -37.0%
Pass targets
Kyle Williams 8 catches (9 targets), 133 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.62 1.06 9.57 89% 25.0%
Steve Jenkins 6 catches (7 targets), 70 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.67 1.18 8.24 57% 20.0%
Shelton Zeon III 4 catches (4 targets), 36 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 1.19 4.77 100% 16.0%
Jordan Jakes 2 catches (3 targets), 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.50 -0.15 -0.45 33% 0.0%
Marcus Phillips Jr. 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.51 -1.02 0% -4.0%
Charles Williams 1 catch (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.94 -1.87 0% -2.0%
Kaleo Ballungay 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.00 -2.00 0% -4.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 7:14 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 6 at SJSU 16) Nick Nash run for 2 yds to the SJSt 18 Nick Nash fumbled, forced by Tavis Malakius, recovered by UNLV Bryce Jackson - SJSU 3, UNLV 10 -4.63 41.7% -6.6%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 18

Started Drive at: SJSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.83 - -0.21 = -4.63

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.21)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.83)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.7%

Win Probability (After): 35.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 2:24 ESPN team id 23 (4th & 1 at UNLV 9) Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the UNLV 9 - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 -4.56 62.7% -7.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 91

Started Drive at: SJSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.62 - 3.93 = -4.56

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.07)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.62)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 126 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.7%

Win Probability (After): 55.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:24 ESPN team id 23 (4th & 1 at UNLV 9) Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the UNLV 9 - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 -4.55 62.9% -7.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 91

Started Drive at: SJSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.62 - 3.93 = -4.55

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.07)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.62)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 126 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.9%

Win Probability (After): 55.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:34 ESPN team id 2439 (4th & 1 at SJSU 22) Daniel Gutierrez 40 yd FG MISSED - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 -4.40 57.1% -16.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 78

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.98 - 3.42 = -4.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.42)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.98)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.1%

Win Probability (After): 40.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:30 ESPN team id 23 (4th & 1 at UNLV 38) Nick Nash pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr. - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 -4.29 40.3% -7.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 62

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.02 - 1.27 = -4.29

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.73)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.02)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.3%

Win Probability (After): 33.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:34 ESPN team id 23 (3rd & 1 at SJSU 31) Isaiah Holiness run for 54 yds to the UNLV 15 Isaiah Holiness fumbled, forced by Jacoby Windmon, recovered by SJSt Jermaine Braddock for a 1ST down - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 3.83 59.9% 15.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 15

Started Drive at: SJSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.95 - 1.11 = 3.83

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.9%

Win Probability (After): 75.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:57 ESPN team id 23 (Kickoff at SJSU 35) Daniel Gutierrez kickoff for 46 yds , Shamar Garrett return for 1 yd to the SJSt 20 - SJSU 0, UNLV 0 3.79 71.4% -8.8%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 20

Started Drive at: SJSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.43 - 0.64 = 3.79

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.43)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.4%

Win Probability (After): 62.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:16 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at UNLV 33) Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 32 yds to the UNLV 1 for a 1ST down - SJSU 6, UNLV 17 3.58 35.7% 8.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 1

Started Drive at: UNLV 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.64 - 2.06 = 3.58

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.94)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-5.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 6, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.7%

Win Probability (After): 43.8%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 7:06 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 15 at UNLV 18) Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 22 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST down - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 3.31 8.3% 7.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 60

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.76 - -1.55 = 3.31

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.55)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.3%

Win Probability (After): 16.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:47 ESPN team id 23 (3rd & 9 at SJSU 33) Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 25 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST down - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 3.23 61.4% 6.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 42

Started Drive at: SJSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.09 - -0.14 = 3.23

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.14)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 91 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.4%

Win Probability (After): 67.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 7:06 ESPN team id 2439 (Kickoff at UNLV 35) Taren Schive kickoff for 65 yds , Steve Jenkins return for 32 yds to the UNLV 33 UNLV Penalty, Illegal Block (8 Yards) to the UNLV 9 - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 -0.29 13.8% 33.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 91

Started Drive at: SJSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.27 - 0.55 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-14.94)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.8%

Win Probability (After): 46.9%

Away Score: 27 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:06 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 10 at UNLV 9) Cameron Friel run for 1 yd to the UNLV 10 - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 -1.22 36.9% -27.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 90

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.71 - -0.49 = -1.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.49)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.9%

Win Probability (After): 9.2%

Away Score: 20 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:34 ESPN team id 2439 (4th & 1 at SJSU 22) Daniel Gutierrez 40 yd FG MISSED - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 -4.40 57.1% -16.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 78

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.98 - 3.42 = -4.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.42)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.98)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.1%

Win Probability (After): 40.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:34 ESPN team id 23 (3rd & 1 at SJSU 31) Isaiah Holiness run for 54 yds to the UNLV 15 Isaiah Holiness fumbled, forced by Jacoby Windmon, recovered by SJSt Jermaine Braddock for a 1ST down - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 3.83 59.9% 15.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 15

Started Drive at: SJSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.95 - 1.11 = 3.83

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.9%

Win Probability (After): 75.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 2 at SJSU 11) Cameron Friel sacked by Kyle Harmon for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 19 - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 -0.03 15.1% -15.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 19

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 2.04 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.96)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 19 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 41) Charles Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 40 - SJSU 3, UNLV 6 -0.82 52.9% -10.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 60

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.63 - 2.44 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.44)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.9%

Win Probability (After): 42.2%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:21 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 1 at UNLV 10) Tyler Nevens run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 1.78 44.4% 10.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 99

Started Drive at: SJSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.22 = 1.78

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.4%

Win Probability (After): 54.9%

Away Score: 13 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:14 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 10 at UNLV 15) Nick Nash run for 15 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 2.69 76.8% 10.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 99

Started Drive at: SJSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.31 = 2.69

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.31)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.8%

Win Probability (After): 87.3%

Away Score: 20 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:06 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 9) Charles Williams run for no gain to the UNLV 9 - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 -0.77 46.8% -9.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 91

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.49 - 0.27 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.27)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.8%

Win Probability (After): 36.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:11 ESPN team id 2439 (4th & 5 at SJSU 24) Cameron Friel pass complete to Shelton Zeon III for 5 yds to the SJSt 19 for a 1ST down - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 1.84 12.5% 9.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 19

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.78 - 1.94 = 1.84

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.06)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.5%

Win Probability (After): 22.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 12:47 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & Goal at SJSU 6) Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 6 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) - SJSU 0, UNLV 7 3.00 38.6% 4.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: SJSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.00 = 3.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.00)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.6%

Win Probability (After): 42.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:29 ESPN team id 23 (4th & Goal at UNLV 9) M. Mercurio 26 yd FG GOOD - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 0.44 59.8% 4.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 65

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.56 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.44)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.8%

Win Probability (After): 64.2%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 12:20 ESPN team id 2439 (4th & 6 at SJSU 36) Daniel Gutierrez 53 yd FG GOOD - SJSU 3, UNLV 10 2.07 41.7% 6.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 65

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.93 = 2.07

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.93)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.7%

Win Probability (After): 48.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:51 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & Goal at SJSU 1) Charles Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) - SJSU 3, UNLV 17 0.80 66.4% 6.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: SJSU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.20 = 0.80

Score Difference (Before): 7 (13.20)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.4%

Win Probability (After): 72.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:07 ESPN team id 23 (4th & 9 at UNLV 19) Matt Mercurio 36 yd FG GOOD - SJSU 6, UNLV 17 1.10 26.9% 7.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 65

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.90 = 1.10

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.10)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 6, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 34.5%

Away Score: 3 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:02 ESPN team id 23 (1st & Goal at UNLV 1) Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) - SJSU 13, UNLV 17 1.88 41.3% 4.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNLV 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.12 = 1.88

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-5.88)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.3%

Win Probability (After): 46.2%

Away Score: 6 (13) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 8:56 ESPN team id 2439 (4th & 7 at SJSU 12) Daniel Gutierrez 30 yd FG GOOD - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 0.29 59.1% 0.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 65

Started Drive at: UNLV 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.71 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.71)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.1%

Win Probability (After): 59.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 17 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:21 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 1 at UNLV 10) Tyler Nevens run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 1.78 44.4% 10.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 99

Started Drive at: SJSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.22 = 1.78

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.4%

Win Probability (After): 54.9%

Away Score: 13 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:14 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 10 at UNLV 15) Nick Nash run for 15 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 2.69 76.8% 10.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 99

Started Drive at: SJSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.31 = 2.69

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.31)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.8%

Win Probability (After): 87.3%

Away Score: 20 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 4 at UNLV 17) Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 20 - SJSU 0, UNLV 6 -2.01 73.7% -8.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 20

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 4.92 = -2.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.92)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.7%

Win Probability (After): 65.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 23 (3rd & 7 at UNLV 20) Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 11 yds to the UNLV 9 for a 1ST down - SJSU 0, UNLV 6 1.91 59.1% 3.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 9

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.23 - 3.32 = 1.91

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.68)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-0.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.1%

Win Probability (After): 62.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 23 (1st & Goal at UNLV 9) nan - SJSU 0, UNLV 6 -0.65 62.9% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.57 - 5.23 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-0.77)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-1.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.9%

Win Probability (After): 61.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & Goal at UNLV 9) pass incomplete to Shamar Garrett - SJSU 0, UNLV 6 -0.86 61.6% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.71 - 4.57 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-1.43)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.6%

Win Probability (After): 59.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 23 (3rd & Goal at UNLV 9) pass incomplete to Isaiah Hamilton - SJSU 0, UNLV 6 -1.14 59.7% -2.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 3.71 = -1.14

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.29)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.7%

Win Probability (After): 56.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 25) Cameron Friel pass complete to Kyle Williams for 16 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST down - SJSU 0, UNLV 6 0.96 50.1% 2.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 59

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.44 - 1.48 = 0.96

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.48)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.1%

Win Probability (After): 52.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 41) Charles Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 40 - SJSU 3, UNLV 6 -0.82 52.9% -10.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 60

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.63 - 2.44 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.44)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.9%

Win Probability (After): 42.2%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 11 at UNLV 40) pass incomplete to Kaleo Ballungay - SJSU 3, UNLV 6 -0.99 42.2% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 1.63 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.63)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.2%

Win Probability (After): 39.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 11 at UNLV 40) Cameron Friel run for 2 yds to the UNLV 42 - SJSU 3, UNLV 6 -1.13 39.5% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 58

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.49 - 0.64 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.64)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.5%

Win Probability (After): 37.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at SJSU 32) Nick Nash pass complete to Charles Ross for 4 yds to the SJSt 36 - SJSU 3, UNLV 6 -0.14 61.0% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 64

Started Drive at: SJSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - 1.50 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.50)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.0%

Win Probability (After): 61.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 6 at SJSU 36) Nick Nash run for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 33 - SJSU 3, UNLV 6 -1.42 61.3% -3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 67

Started Drive at: SJSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 1.36 = -1.42

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.64)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.3%

Win Probability (After): 58.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 23 (3rd & 9 at SJSU 33) Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 25 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST down - SJSU 3, UNLV 6 3.17 58.1% 6.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 42

Started Drive at: SJSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - -0.06 = 3.17

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.06)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.1%

Win Probability (After): 64.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at UNLV 42) Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 24 yds to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST down - SJSU 3, UNLV 6 1.58 64.5% 5.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 18

Started Drive at: SJSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.69 - 3.11 = 1.58

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.11)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.5%

Win Probability (After): 70.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at UNLV 18) Tyler Nevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 19 - SJSU 3, UNLV 6 -0.98 70.4% -3.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 19

Started Drive at: SJSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.71 - 4.69 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.69)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.4%

Win Probability (After): 66.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 11 at UNLV 19) Nick Nash pass incomplete to Charles Ross, broken up by Jeremiah Houston - SJSU 3, UNLV 6 -0.76 66.8% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: SJSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.95 - 3.71 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.71)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.8%

Win Probability (After): 63.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 23 (3rd & 11 at UNLV 19) Nick Nash run for 10 yds to the UNLV 9 - SJSU 3, UNLV 6 0.86 63.8% 3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 9

Started Drive at: SJSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.81 - 2.95 = 0.86

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.05)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.8%

Win Probability (After): 67.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 2 at UNLV 17) Charles Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 13 - SJSU 3, UNLV 6 -1.90 40.4% -2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 87

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.60 - 1.30 = -1.90

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.30)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.4%

Win Probability (After): 37.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 6 at UNLV 13) SAN JOSÉ ST Penalty, off-side (Noah Wright) to the UNLV 13 - SJSU 3, UNLV 6 0.00 37.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 87

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.60 - -0.60 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.40)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.6%

Win Probability (After): 37.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:57 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at SJSU 20) Charles Williams run for 12 yds to the SJSt 8 for a 1ST down - SJSU 0, UNLV 0 0.59 41.3% -3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 8

Started Drive at: SJSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.11 - 4.52 = 0.59

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.52)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.3%

Win Probability (After): 37.9%

Away Score: 3 (0) Home Score: 6 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:57 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & Goal at SJSU 8) PENALTY NLV False Start (Shanks,Tiger) 5 yards from SJS08 to SJS13. NO PLAY. - SJSU 0, UNLV 0 -0.89 37.9% -1.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 13

Started Drive at: SJSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.22 - 5.11 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.9%

Win Probability (After): 36.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:57 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & Goal at SJSU 13) Cameron Friel run for 3 yds to the SJSt 10 - SJSU 0, UNLV 0 -0.06 36.2% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 10

Started Drive at: SJSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.16 - 4.22 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.22)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.2%

Win Probability (After): 36.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:57 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & Goal at SJSU 10) Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the SJSt 6 - SJSU 0, UNLV 0 -0.48 36.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 6

Started Drive at: SJSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.67 - 4.16 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.5%

Win Probability (After): 36.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:57 ESPN team id 23 (Kickoff at SJSU 35) Daniel Gutierrez kickoff for 46 yds , Shamar Garrett return for 1 yd to the SJSt 20 - SJSU 0, UNLV 0 3.79 71.4% -8.8%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 20

Started Drive at: SJSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.43 - 0.64 = 3.79

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.43)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.4%

Win Probability (After): 62.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:47 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & Goal at SJSU 6) Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 6 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) - SJSU 0, UNLV 7 3.00 38.6% 4.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: SJSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.00 = 3.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.00)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.6%

Win Probability (After): 42.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:47 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at SJSU 25) Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 9 yds to the SJSt 34 - SJSU 0, UNLV 7 1.32 56.4% 3.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - -0.18 = 1.32

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.18)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.4%

Win Probability (After): 59.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:47 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 1 at SJSU 34) Tyler Nevens run for 6 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST down - SJSU 0, UNLV 7 -0.04 59.5% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 60

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.11 - 1.15 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.85)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.5%

Win Probability (After): 59.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:47 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at SJSU 40) Nick Nash run for 11 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST down - SJSU 0, UNLV 7 0.92 59.8% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 49

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - 1.11 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.89)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.8%

Win Probability (After): 61.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:47 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at UNLV 49) Nick Nash pass complete to Charles Ross for 11 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST down - SJSU 0, UNLV 7 0.69 61.1% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 38

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.71 - 2.02 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.98)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.1%

Win Probability (After): 62.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:47 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at UNLV 38) Nick Nash run for 15 yds to the UNLV 23 for a 1ST down - SJSU 0, UNLV 7 1.28 62.9% 2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 23

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.99 - 2.71 = 1.28

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.29)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.9%

Win Probability (After): 65.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:47 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at UNLV 23) Tyler Nevens run for 6 yds to the UNLV 17 - SJSU 0, UNLV 7 0.59 65.7% 1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 17

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.58 - 3.99 = 0.59

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.01)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.7%

Win Probability (After): 67.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:47 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 4 at UNLV 17) Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the UNLV 20 - SJSU 0, UNLV 7 -1.56 67.5% -3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 20

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.02 - 4.58 = -1.56

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.42)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.5%

Win Probability (After): 64.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:47 ESPN team id 23 (3rd & 7 at UNLV 20) Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 11 yds to the UNLV 9 for a 1ST down - SJSU 0, UNLV 7 2.01 64.2% 3.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 9

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.03 - 3.02 = 2.01

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.98)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-1.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.2%

Win Probability (After): 67.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:47 ESPN team id 23 (1st & Goal at UNLV 9) Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the UNLV 9 - SJSU 0, UNLV 7 -0.68 67.8% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.35 - 5.03 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.97)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.8%

Win Probability (After): 67.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:47 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & Goal at UNLV 9) Nick Nash pass incomplete to Shamar Garrett - SJSU 0, UNLV 7 -0.87 67.3% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.48 - 4.35 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.65)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.3%

Win Probability (After): 64.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:47 ESPN team id 23 (3rd & Goal at UNLV 9) Nick Nash pass incomplete to Isaiah Hamilton - SJSU 0, UNLV 7 -1.02 64.3% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 3.48 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.52)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.3%

Win Probability (After): 61.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:47 ESPN team id 23 (Kickoff at SJSU 35) Daniel Gutierrez kickoff for 44 yds - SJSU 0, UNLV 7 0.00 56.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.18 - -0.18 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.18)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.4%

Win Probability (After): 56.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:29 ESPN team id 23 (4th & Goal at UNLV 9) M. Mercurio 26 yd FG GOOD - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 0.44 59.8% 4.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 65

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.56 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.44)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.8%

Win Probability (After): 64.2%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 7:29 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 25) Cameron Friel pass complete to Kyle Williams for 16 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST down - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 1.09 39.4% 2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 59

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 1.39 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.39)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.4%

Win Probability (After): 41.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:29 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 41) Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 40 - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 -0.94 41.5% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 60

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.54 - 2.48 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.48)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.5%

Win Probability (After): 39.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:29 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 11 at UNLV 40) Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Kaleo Ballungay - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 -1.01 39.7% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - 1.54 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.54)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.7%

Win Probability (After): 38.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2439 (Kickoff at UNLV 35) Taren Schive kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - SJSU 0, UNLV 0 -0.39 37.3% -4.3%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: SJSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.97 - 1.36 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.36)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.3%

Win Probability (After): 32.9%

Away Score: 3 (0) Home Score: 7 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:29 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 11 at UNLV 40) Cameron Friel run for 2 yds to the UNLV 42 - SJSU 0, UNLV 0 -1.10 29.9% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 58

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.99 - 0.11 = -1.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 0, UNLV 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.9%

Win Probability (After): 27.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:47 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at SJSU 32) Nick Nash pass complete to Charles Ross for 4 yds to the SJSt 36 - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 -0.44 72.5% -8.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 64

Started Drive at: SJSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.30 - 1.74 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.74)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.5%

Win Probability (After): 64.5%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:47 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 6 at SJSU 36) Nick Nash run for 3 yds to the SJSt 33 - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 -1.44 64.5% -3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 67

Started Drive at: SJSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.14 - 1.30 = -1.44

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.70)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.5%

Win Probability (After): 61.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:47 ESPN team id 23 (3rd & 9 at SJSU 33) Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 25 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST down - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 3.23 61.4% 6.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 42

Started Drive at: SJSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.09 - -0.14 = 3.23

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.14)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 91 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.4%

Win Probability (After): 67.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:47 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at UNLV 42) Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 24 yds to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST down - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 1.61 67.6% 4.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 18

Started Drive at: SJSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.71 - 3.09 = 1.61

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.91)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 115 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.6%

Win Probability (After): 71.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:47 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at UNLV 18) Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd to the UNLV 19 - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 -1.00 71.5% -3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 19

Started Drive at: SJSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.71 - 4.71 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.71)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 116 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.5%

Win Probability (After): 68.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:47 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 11 at UNLV 19) Nick Nash pass incomplete to Charles Ross - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 -0.78 68.6% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: SJSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.93 - 3.71 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.29)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 116 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.6%

Win Probability (After): 66.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:47 ESPN team id 23 (3rd & 11 at UNLV 19) Nick Nash run for 10 yds to the UNLV 9 - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 0.98 66.8% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 9

Started Drive at: SJSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.91 - 2.93 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.07)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 126 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.8%

Win Probability (After): 68.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:47 ESPN team id 2439 (4th & 9 at UNLV 42) Evan Silva punt for 33 yds , Kenyon Reed returns for 7 yds to the SJSt 32 - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 -0.90 39.7% -3.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 68

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.42 - -0.51 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.49)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.58)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.7%

Win Probability (After): 35.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:30 ESPN team id 23 (3rd & 11 at UNLV 19) Timeout SAN JOSÉ ST, clock 02:30 - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 0.00 63.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 9

Started Drive at: SJSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.93 - 2.93 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.07)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 126 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.5%

Win Probability (After): 63.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:24 ESPN team id 23 (4th & 1 at UNLV 9) Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the UNLV 9 - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 -4.56 62.7% -7.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 91

Started Drive at: SJSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.62 - 3.93 = -4.56

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.07)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.62)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 126 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.7%

Win Probability (After): 55.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:24 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 9) Cameron Friel pass complete to Jordan Jakes for 8 yds to the UNLV 17 - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 0.75 45.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 83

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.38 - 0.62 = 0.75

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.62)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.4%

Win Probability (After): 45.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 2:24 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 9) Timeout UNLV, clock 02:24 - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 0.00 45.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 83

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.38 - 1.38 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.38)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.9%

Win Probability (After): 45.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 2:24 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 2 at UNLV 17) Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the UNLV 13 - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 -1.88 44.9% -2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 87

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.51 - 1.38 = -1.88

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.38)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.9%

Win Probability (After): 42.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 2:24 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 6 at UNLV 13) PENALTY SJS Offside (Wright,Noah) 5 yards from NLV13 to NLV18. NO PLAY. - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 1.29 42.3% 1.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 82

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.78 - -0.51 = 1.29

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.49)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.3%

Win Probability (After): 43.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 2:24 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 1 at UNLV 18) Cameron Friel pass complete to Kyle Williams for 29 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST down - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 2.14 43.8% 5.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 53

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 0.78 = 2.14

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.78)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.8%

Win Probability (After): 48.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 2:24 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 47) Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Kyle Williams - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 -0.62 48.9% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.30 - 2.92 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.92)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.9%

Win Probability (After): 48.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 2:24 ESPN team id 23 (4th & 1 at UNLV 9) Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the UNLV 9 - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 -4.55 62.9% -7.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 91

Started Drive at: SJSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.62 - 3.93 = -4.55

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.07)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.62)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 126 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.9%

Win Probability (After): 55.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 10 at UNLV 47) Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Charles Williams - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 -0.90 46.9% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.38 - 2.28 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.28)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.9%

Win Probability (After): 46.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 10 at UNLV 47) Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 13 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST down - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 2.34 40.6% 5.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 40

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.71 - 1.36 = 2.34

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.36)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.6%

Win Probability (After): 45.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at SJSU 40) Cameron Friel run for 4 yds to the SJSt 36 - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 -0.21 45.7% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 36

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.50 - 3.71 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.71)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.7%

Win Probability (After): 45.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 6 at SJSU 36) Charles Williams run for 5 yds to the SJSt 31 - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 0.30 45.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 31

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.80 - 3.50 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.50)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.2%

Win Probability (After): 44.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 1 at SJSU 31) Chad Magyar run for no gain to the SJSt 31 - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 -0.94 44.9% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 31

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.85 - 3.80 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.80)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.9%

Win Probability (After): 42.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 2439 (4th & 1 at SJSU 31) PENALTY NLV Illegal Substitution 5 yards from SJS31 to SJS36. NO PLAY. - SJSU 3, UNLV 7 -2.02 42.6% -2.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 36

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 2.85 = -2.02

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.85)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.6%

Win Probability (After): 40.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 12:20 ESPN team id 2439 (4th & 6 at SJSU 36) Daniel Gutierrez 53 yd FG GOOD - SJSU 3, UNLV 10 2.07 41.7% 6.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 65

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.93 = 2.07

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.93)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.7%

Win Probability (After): 48.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 12:19 ESPN team id 23 (Kickoff at SJSU 35) Daniel Gutierrez kickoff for 35 yds , Matthew Tago return for no gain to the SJSt 30 - SJSU 3, UNLV 10 0.56 49.7% 0.9%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 70

Started Drive at: SJSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.77 - 0.22 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.78)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.7%

Win Probability (After): 50.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:19 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at SJSU 30) Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the SJSt 30 - SJSU 3, UNLV 10 -0.76 50.6% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: SJSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 0.77 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.23)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.6%

Win Probability (After): 49.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:19 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 10 at SJSU 30) Nick Nash pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 6 yds to the SJSt 36 - SJSU 3, UNLV 10 0.37 49.4% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 64

Started Drive at: SJSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 0.01 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.99)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.4%

Win Probability (After): 49.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:19 ESPN team id 23 (3rd & 4 at SJSU 36) Nick Nash pass incomplete to Jermaine Braddock - SJSU 3, UNLV 10 -1.65 49.9% -4.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: SJSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.27 - 0.38 = -1.65

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.62)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.9%

Win Probability (After): 45.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:52 ESPN team id 23 (4th & 4 at SJSU 36) Will Hart punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Steve Jenkins at the UNLV 26 - SJSU 3, UNLV 10 -1.41 43.9% 2.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 74

Started Drive at: SJSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.34 - -0.92 = -1.41

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.92)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.34)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.9%

Win Probability (After): 46.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 10:52 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 26) Cameron Friel pass complete to Kyle Williams for 20 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST down - SJSU 3, UNLV 10 0.99 57.4% 3.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 54

Started Drive at: UNLV 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.24 - 2.24 = 0.99

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.24)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.4%

Win Probability (After): 61.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:52 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 46) Charles Williams run for loss of 1 yd to the UNLV 45 - SJSU 3, UNLV 10 -0.80 61.0% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 55

Started Drive at: UNLV 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 3.24 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.24)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.0%

Win Probability (After): 59.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:52 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 11 at UNLV 45) Cameron Friel sacked by E.J. Ane for a loss of 10 yards to the UNLV 35 - SJSU 3, UNLV 10 -1.46 59.5% -4.8%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 65

Started Drive at: UNLV 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.98 - 2.43 = -1.46

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.43)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.5%

Win Probability (After): 54.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:52 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 21 at UNLV 35) Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 10 yds to the UNLV 45 - SJSU 3, UNLV 10 -0.75 54.7% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 55

Started Drive at: UNLV 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - 0.98 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.98)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.7%

Win Probability (After): 55.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:58 ESPN team id 2439 (4th & 11 at UNLV 45) Evan Silva punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kenyon Reed at the SJSt 12 - SJSU 3, UNLV 10 0.60 55.4% -2.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 88

Started Drive at: UNLV 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - -0.36 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.64)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.24)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.4%

Win Probability (After): 52.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 7:58 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at SJSU 12) Nick Nash run for 4 yds to the SJSt 16 - SJSU 3, UNLV 10 -0.04 43.2% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 84

Started Drive at: SJSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.24 - -0.20 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.20)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.2%

Win Probability (After): 42.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:14 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 6 at SJSU 16) Nick Nash run for 2 yds to the SJSt 18 Nick Nash fumbled, forced by Tavis Malakius, recovered by UNLV Bryce Jackson - SJSU 3, UNLV 10 -4.63 41.7% -6.6%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 18

Started Drive at: SJSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.83 - -0.21 = -4.63

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.21)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.83)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.7%

Win Probability (After): 35.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:14 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at SJSU 18) Cameron Friel pass complete to Shelton Zeon III for 11 yds to the SJSt 7 for a 1ST down - SJSU 3, UNLV 10 0.76 65.4% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 7

Started Drive at: SJSU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.63 - 4.88 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.88)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.4%

Win Probability (After): 66.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:14 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & Goal at SJSU 7) Charles Williams run for 6 yds to the SJSt 1 - SJSU 3, UNLV 10 0.60 66.8% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 1

Started Drive at: SJSU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.23 - 5.63 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.63)

Score Difference (End): 7 (13.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.8%

Win Probability (After): 67.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:51 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & Goal at SJSU 1) Charles Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) - SJSU 3, UNLV 17 0.80 66.4% 6.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: SJSU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.20 = 0.80

Score Difference (Before): 7 (13.20)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.4%

Win Probability (After): 72.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:51 ESPN team id 23 (Kickoff at SJSU 35) Daniel Gutierrez kickoff for 41 yds - SJSU 3, UNLV 17 0.00 27.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - 0.19 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.81)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.9%

Win Probability (After): 27.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:51 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at SJSU 25) Nick Nash pass incomplete to Isaiah Hamilton - SJSU 3, UNLV 17 -0.52 27.9% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.33 - 0.19 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.81)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.9%

Win Probability (After): 27.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:51 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 10 at SJSU 25) Nick Nash pass complete to Jermaine Braddock for 16 yds to the SJSt 41 for a 1ST down - SJSU 3, UNLV 17 1.86 27.1% 2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 59

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - -0.33 = 1.86

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.33)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.1%

Win Probability (After): 29.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:51 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at SJSU 41) Nick Nash pass incomplete to Skylar Loving-Black - SJSU 3, UNLV 17 -0.53 29.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.00 - 1.53 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.47)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.4%

Win Probability (After): 28.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:51 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 10 at SJSU 41) Nick Nash pass incomplete to Malikhi Miller - SJSU 3, UNLV 17 -0.70 28.5% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.30 - 1.00 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.00)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.5%

Win Probability (After): 27.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:51 ESPN team id 23 (3rd & 10 at SJSU 41) Nick Nash pass complete to Charles Ross for 11 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST down - SJSU 3, UNLV 17 2.01 27.2% 3.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 48

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.31 - 0.30 = 2.01

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.70)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.2%

Win Probability (After): 30.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:51 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at UNLV 48) Shamar Garrett run for 9 yds to the UNLV 39 - SJSU 3, UNLV 17 1.09 30.6% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 39

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.39 - 2.31 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.69)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.6%

Win Probability (After): 31.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:51 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 1 at UNLV 39) Tyler Nevens run for 3 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST down - SJSU 3, UNLV 17 -0.18 31.6% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 36

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.21 - 3.39 = -0.18

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.61)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.6%

Win Probability (After): 31.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:51 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at UNLV 36) Nick Nash pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr. - SJSU 3, UNLV 17 -0.51 31.8% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.70 - 3.21 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.79)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.8%

Win Probability (After): 30.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:51 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 10 at UNLV 36) Nick Nash pass complete to Kairee Robinson for 5 yds to the UNLV 31 - SJSU 3, UNLV 17 -0.01 30.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 31

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.69 - 2.70 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.30)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.3%

Win Probability (After): 30.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:58 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 10 at UNLV 36) Timeout UNLV, clock 02:58 - SJSU 3, UNLV 17 0.00 31.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 31

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.69 - 2.69 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.31)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.1%

Win Probability (After): 31.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 2:58 ESPN team id 23 (3rd & 5 at UNLV 31) Nick Nash pass complete to Charles Ross for 11 yds to the UNLV 20 for a 1ST down - SJSU 3, UNLV 17 1.49 30.7% 4.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 20

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.06 - 2.57 = 1.49

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.43)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.7%

Win Probability (After): 35.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 2:58 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at UNLV 20) Nick Nash sacked by Brennon Scott for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 24 - SJSU 3, UNLV 17 -1.37 35.4% -4.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 24

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.69 - 4.06 = -1.37

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.94)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.4%

Win Probability (After): 30.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 2:58 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 14 at UNLV 24) Nick Nash run for 2 yds to the UNLV 22 - SJSU 3, UNLV 17 -0.37 30.9% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 22

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.32 - 2.69 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.31)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.9%

Win Probability (After): 29.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 2:58 ESPN team id 23 (3rd & 12 at UNLV 22) Nick Nash run for 3 yds to the UNLV 19 - SJSU 3, UNLV 17 -0.57 29.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 19

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.75 - 2.32 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.68)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 3, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.0%

Win Probability (After): 28.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:07 ESPN team id 23 (4th & 9 at UNLV 19) Matt Mercurio 36 yd FG GOOD - SJSU 6, UNLV 17 1.10 26.9% 7.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 65

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.90 = 1.10

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.10)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 6, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 34.5%

Away Score: 3 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:07 ESPN team id 2439 (Kickoff at UNLV 35) Taren Schive kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - SJSU 6, UNLV 17 0.00 72.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 1.03 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.03)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 6, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.7%

Win Probability (After): 72.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:07 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 25) Charles Williams run for 7 yds to the UNLV 32 - SJSU 6, UNLV 17 0.20 72.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 68

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.23 - 1.03 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.03)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 6, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.7%

Win Probability (After): 72.5%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:07 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 3 at UNLV 32) Charles Williams run for 5 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST down - SJSU 6, UNLV 17 0.13 72.5% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 63

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - 1.23 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.23)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 6, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.5%

Win Probability (After): 73.3%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:16 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 37) Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the UNLV 33 Charles Williams fumbled, forced by Cade Hall, recovered by SJSt Jay Lenard - SJSU 6, UNLV 17 -3.23 72.1% -9.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 33

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.86 - 0.37 = -3.23

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.37)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.14)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SJSU 6, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.1%

Win Probability (After): 62.9%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:16 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at UNLV 33) Nick Nash pass complete to Derrick Deese Jr. for 32 yds to the UNLV 1 for a 1ST down - SJSU 6, UNLV 17 3.58 35.7% 8.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 1

Started Drive at: UNLV 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.64 - 2.06 = 3.58

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.94)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-5.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 6, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.7%

Win Probability (After): 43.8%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:09 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at UNLV 33) Timeout SAN JOSÉ ST, clock 00:09 - SJSU 6, UNLV 17 0.00 38.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 1

Started Drive at: UNLV 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.64 - 5.64 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-5.36)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-5.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 6, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.9%

Win Probability (After): 38.9%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:02 ESPN team id 23 (1st & Goal at UNLV 1) Tyler Nevens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) - SJSU 13, UNLV 17 1.88 41.3% 4.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNLV 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.12 = 1.88

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-5.88)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.3%

Win Probability (After): 46.2%

Away Score: 6 (13) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:02 ESPN team id 2439 (Kickoff at UNLV 35) Taren Schive kickoff for 50 yds - SJSU 13, UNLV 17 0.00 50.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 0.05 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.05)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.2%

Win Probability (After): 50.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 25) run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 21 - SJSU 13, UNLV 17 -0.03 50.2% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 79

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.04 - 0.03 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.03)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.2%

Win Probability (After): 52.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 14:54 ESPN team id 2439 (Kickoff at UNLV 35) Taren Schive kickoff for 65 yds , Steve Jenkins return for 31 yds to the UNLV 31 - SJSU 13, UNLV 17 0.56 52.9% 0.3%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 69

Started Drive at: UNLV 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - 1.41 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.41)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.9%

Win Probability (After): 53.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:54 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 31) Cameron Friel run for 4 yds to the UNLV 35 - SJSU 13, UNLV 17 -0.12 54.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 65

Started Drive at: UNLV 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.89 - 2.00 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.00)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.0%

Win Probability (After): 53.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:54 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 6 at UNLV 35) Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 36 - SJSU 13, UNLV 17 -0.79 53.4% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 64

Started Drive at: UNLV 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 1.89 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.89)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.4%

Win Probability (After): 52.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:54 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 5 at UNLV 36) Cameron Friel run for 5 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST down - SJSU 13, UNLV 17 1.41 52.2% 3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 59

Started Drive at: UNLV 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.50 - 1.10 = 1.41

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.10)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.2%

Win Probability (After): 55.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:54 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 41) Charles Williams run for 19 yds to the SJSt 40 for a 1ST down - SJSU 13, UNLV 17 1.20 55.6% 2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 40

Started Drive at: UNLV 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.71 - 2.50 = 1.20

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.50)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.6%

Win Probability (After): 57.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:54 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at SJSU 40) Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the SJSt 37 - SJSU 13, UNLV 17 -0.45 57.9% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 37

Started Drive at: UNLV 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.26 - 3.71 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.71)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.9%

Win Probability (After): 56.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:54 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 7 at SJSU 37) Cameron Friel pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds to the SJSt 32 - SJSU 13, UNLV 17 0.28 56.9% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 32

Started Drive at: UNLV 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.54 - 3.26 = 0.28

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.26)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.9%

Win Probability (After): 57.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:54 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 2 at SJSU 32) Cameron Friel pass complete to Kyle Williams for 17 yds to the SJSt 15 for a 1ST down - SJSU 13, UNLV 17 1.35 57.1% 3.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 15

Started Drive at: UNLV 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.89 - 3.54 = 1.35

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.54)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.1%

Win Probability (After): 60.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:54 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at SJSU 15) Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the SJSt 12 - SJSU 13, UNLV 17 -0.39 60.3% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 12

Started Drive at: UNLV 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.50 - 4.89 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.89)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.3%

Win Probability (After): 60.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:54 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 7 at SJSU 12) Charles Williams run for no gain to the SJSt 12 - SJSU 13, UNLV 17 -0.89 60.7% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 12

Started Drive at: UNLV 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 4.50 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.50)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.7%

Win Probability (After): 58.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:54 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 7 at SJSU 12) Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Steve Jenkins - SJSU 13, UNLV 17 -1.16 58.3% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 12

Started Drive at: UNLV 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.45 - 3.61 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.61)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.3%

Win Probability (After): 55.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:56 ESPN team id 2439 (4th & 7 at SJSU 12) Daniel Gutierrez 30 yd FG GOOD - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 0.29 59.1% 0.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 65

Started Drive at: UNLV 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.71 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.71)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.1%

Win Probability (After): 59.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 17 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 8:56 ESPN team id 23 (Kickoff at SJSU 35) Daniel Gutierrez kickoff for 43 yds - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 0.00 40.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 0.05 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.95)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.1%

Win Probability (After): 40.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:56 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at SJSU 25) Nick Nash pass complete to Shamar Garrett for 8 yds to the SJSt 33 - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 0.85 40.1% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.89 - 0.05 = 0.85

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.95)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.1%

Win Probability (After): 41.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:56 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 2 at SJSU 33) Nick Nash run for 20 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST down - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 1.44 41.3% 2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 47

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.33 - 0.89 = 1.44

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.11)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.3%

Win Probability (After): 44.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:56 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at UNLV 47) Nick Nash pass incomplete - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 -0.64 44.2% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.69 - 2.33 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.67)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:56 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 10 at UNLV 47) Nick Nash pass complete to Charles Ross for 9 yds to the UNLV 38 - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 0.87 43.7% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 38

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.56 - 1.69 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.31)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.7%

Win Probability (After): 44.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:56 ESPN team id 23 (3rd & 1 at UNLV 38) Tyler Nevens run for no gain to the UNLV 38 - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 -1.23 44.1% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 38

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.33 - 2.56 = -1.23

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.44)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.1%

Win Probability (After): 42.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:30 ESPN team id 23 (4th & 1 at UNLV 38) Nick Nash pass incomplete to Derrick Deese Jr. - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 -4.29 40.3% -7.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 62

Started Drive at: SJSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.02 - 1.27 = -4.29

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.73)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.02)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.3%

Win Probability (After): 33.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:30 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 38) Cameron Friel sacked by Viliami Fehoko for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 37 - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 -0.88 66.1% -1.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 63

Started Drive at: UNLV 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.09 - 2.96 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.96)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.1%

Win Probability (After): 64.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:30 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 11 at UNLV 37) Cameron Friel pass complete to Charles Williams for no gain to the UNLV 37 - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 -0.97 64.9% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: UNLV 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 2.09 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.09)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.9%

Win Probability (After): 63.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:30 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 11 at UNLV 37) Cameron Friel pass complete to Jordan Jakes for 9 yds to the UNLV 46 - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 -0.36 63.7% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 54

Started Drive at: UNLV 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.76 - 1.12 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.12)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.7%

Win Probability (After): 65.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:23 ESPN team id 2439 (4th & 2 at UNLV 46) Evan Silva punt for 41 yds - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 -0.17 69.3% -4.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 88

Started Drive at: UNLV 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.61 - 0.78 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.78)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.61)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.3%

Win Probability (After): 64.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 4:23 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at SJSU 12) Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the SJSt 16 - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 -0.16 34.6% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 84

Started Drive at: SJSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.81 - -0.64 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.64)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.6%

Win Probability (After): 33.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:23 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 6 at SJSU 16) Nick Nash run for 10 yds to the SJSt 26 for a 1ST down - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 1.11 33.8% 2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 74

Started Drive at: SJSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.30 - -0.81 = 1.11

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.81)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.8%

Win Probability (After): 36.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:23 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at SJSU 26) Nick Nash pass incomplete to Kairee Robinson - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 -0.81 36.3% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: SJSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.51 - 0.30 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.70)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.3%

Win Probability (After): 35.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:23 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 10 at SJSU 26) Nick Nash pass complete to Charles Ross for 17 yds to the SJSt 43 for a 1ST down - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 1.98 35.1% 4.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 57

Started Drive at: SJSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - -0.51 = 1.98

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.51)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.1%

Win Probability (After): 39.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:23 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at SJSU 43) Tyler Nevens run for 2 yds to the SJSt 45 - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 -0.45 39.3% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 55

Started Drive at: SJSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 1.47 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.53)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.3%

Win Probability (After): 38.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:23 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 8 at SJSU 45) Nick Nash pass incomplete, broken up by Bryce Jackson - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 -0.01 38.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 50

Started Drive at: SJSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.00 - 1.02 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.98)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.4%

Win Probability (After): 38.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:23 ESPN team id 23 (3rd & 3 at 50) Nick Nash run for 20 yds to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST down - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 2.50 38.1% 5.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 30

Started Drive at: SJSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.50 - 1.00 = 2.50

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.00)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.1%

Win Probability (After): 43.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:23 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at UNLV 30) Nick Nash run for 7 yds to the UNLV 23 - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 0.56 43.3% 2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 23

Started Drive at: SJSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.06 - 3.50 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.50)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.3%

Win Probability (After): 45.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 3 at UNLV 23) Tyler Nevens run for 4 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST down - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 0.37 41.6% 5.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 19

Started Drive at: SJSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.43 - 4.06 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.94)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.6%

Win Probability (After): 46.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at UNLV 19) Nick Nash pass complete to Shamar Garrett for 9 yds to the UNLV 10 - SJSU 13, UNLV 20 0.80 43.5% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 10

Started Drive at: SJSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.21 - 4.41 = 0.80

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.59)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-1.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 13, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.5%

Win Probability (After): 44.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:21 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 1 at UNLV 10) Tyler Nevens run for 10 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 1.78 44.4% 10.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 99

Started Drive at: SJSU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.22 = 1.78

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.4%

Win Probability (After): 54.9%

Away Score: 13 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:21 ESPN team id 2439 (Kickoff at UNLV 35) Taren Schive kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 0.00 49.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.16 - 1.16 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.0%

Win Probability (After): 49.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:21 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 25) Cameron Friel pass complete to Kyle Williams for 17 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST down - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 1.19 49.0% 3.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 58

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 1.16 = 1.19

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.0%

Win Probability (After): 52.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:21 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 42) Charles Williams run for 6 yds to the UNLV 48 - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 0.25 52.9% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 52

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.60 - 2.35 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.9%

Win Probability (After): 53.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:21 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 4 at UNLV 48) Charles Williams run for 7 yds to the SJSt 45 for a 1ST down - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 0.63 53.4% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 45

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.23 - 2.60 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.60)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.4%

Win Probability (After): 54.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:21 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at SJSU 45) Cameron Friel pass incomplete - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 -0.65 54.9% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 3.23 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.23)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.9%

Win Probability (After): 54.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:21 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 10 at SJSU 45) Charles Williams run for 9 yds to the SJSt 36 - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 0.85 54.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 36

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.43 - 2.58 = 0.85

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.58)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.1%

Win Probability (After): 54.2%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:21 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 1 at SJSU 36) Charles Williams run for 5 yds to the SJSt 31 for a 1ST down - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 0.66 54.2% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 31

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.10 - 3.43 = 0.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.43)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.2%

Win Probability (After): 56.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:21 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at SJSU 31) Cameron Friel run for 3 yds to the SJSt 28 - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 -0.20 56.1% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 28

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.89 - 4.10 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.1%

Win Probability (After): 56.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:21 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 7 at SJSU 28) Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the SJSt 24 - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 -0.27 56.6% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 24

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.62 - 3.89 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.89)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.6%

Win Probability (After): 55.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:21 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 3 at SJSU 24) Cameron Friel run for 2 yds to the SJSt 22 - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 -0.16 55.5% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 22

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 3.62 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.5%

Win Probability (After): 54.2%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:34 ESPN team id 2439 (4th & 1 at SJSU 22) Daniel Gutierrez 40 yd FG MISSED - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 -4.40 57.1% -16.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 78

Started Drive at: UNLV 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.98 - 3.42 = -4.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.42)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.98)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.1%

Win Probability (After): 40.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:34 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at SJSU 22) Nick Nash run for 9 yds to the SJSt 31 - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 0.95 61.0% 3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 69

Started Drive at: SJSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.99 - 1.04 = 0.95

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.04)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.0%

Win Probability (After): 64.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:34 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 1 at SJSU 31) Nick Nash run for no gain to the SJSt 31 - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 -0.88 64.1% -4.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: SJSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.11 - 1.99 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.99)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.1%

Win Probability (After): 59.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:34 ESPN team id 23 (3rd & 1 at SJSU 31) Isaiah Holiness run for 54 yds to the UNLV 15 Isaiah Holiness fumbled, forced by Jacoby Windmon, recovered by SJSt Jermaine Braddock for a 1ST down - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 3.83 59.9% 15.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 15

Started Drive at: SJSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.95 - 1.11 = 3.83

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.9%

Win Probability (After): 75.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:34 ESPN team id 23 (1st & 10 at UNLV 15) Nick Nash run for no gain to the UNLV 15 - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 -0.56 75.8% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: SJSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.38 - 4.95 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.8%

Win Probability (After): 74.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:14 ESPN team id 23 (2nd & 10 at UNLV 15) Nick Nash run for 15 yds for a TD, (Matt Mercurio KICK) - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 2.69 76.8% 10.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 99

Started Drive at: SJSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.31 = 2.69

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.31)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.8%

Win Probability (After): 87.3%

Away Score: 20 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:06 ESPN team id 2439 (Kickoff at UNLV 35) Taren Schive kickoff for 65 yds , Steve Jenkins return for 32 yds to the UNLV 33 UNLV Penalty, Illegal Block (8 Yards) to the UNLV 9 - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 -0.29 13.8% 33.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 91

Started Drive at: SJSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.27 - 0.55 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-14.94)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.8%

Win Probability (After): 46.9%

Away Score: 27 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:06 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 9) Charles Williams run for no gain to the UNLV 9 - SJSU 20, UNLV 20 -0.77 46.8% -9.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 91

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.49 - 0.27 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.27)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 20, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.8%

Win Probability (After): 36.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:06 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 10 at UNLV 9) Cameron Friel run for 1 yd to the UNLV 10 - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 -1.22 36.9% -27.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 90

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.71 - -0.49 = -1.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.49)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.9%

Win Probability (After): 9.2%

Away Score: 20 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:06 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 9 at UNLV 10) Cameron Friel pass complete to Kyle Williams for 13 yds to the UNLV 23 for a 1ST down - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 2.19 9.2% 4.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 77

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.48 - -1.71 = 2.19

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.71)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.2%

Win Probability (After): 13.7%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:06 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 23) Cameron Friel sacked by Viliami Fehoko for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 18 - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 -1.19 13.7% -3.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 82

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.71 - 0.48 = -1.19

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.52)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.7%

Win Probability (After): 10.1%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:06 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 15 at UNLV 18) Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Jordan Jakes - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 -0.84 10.1% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 82

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.55 - -0.71 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.71)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.1%

Win Probability (After): 8.3%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:06 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 15 at UNLV 18) Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 22 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST down - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 3.31 8.3% 7.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 60

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.76 - -1.55 = 3.31

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.55)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.3%

Win Probability (After): 16.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:06 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at UNLV 40) Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the UNLV 37 - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 -1.13 16.2% -2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 63

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.62 - 1.76 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.24)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.2%

Win Probability (After): 13.3%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:06 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 13 at UNLV 37) Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 2 yds to the UNLV 39 - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 -0.56 13.3% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 61

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 0.62 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.38)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.3%

Win Probability (After): 12.0%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:54 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 13 at UNLV 37) Timeout SAN JOSÉ ST, clock 02:54 - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 0.00 12.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 61

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 0.06 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.94)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.3%

Win Probability (After): 12.3%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:54 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 11 at UNLV 39) Cameron Friel pass complete to Shelton Zeon III for 12 yds to the SJSt 49 for a 1ST down - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 1.52 12.9% 4.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 49

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.12 - 0.60 = 1.52

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.40)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.9%

Win Probability (After): 16.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:54 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at SJSU 49) Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the SJSt 46 - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 -0.30 16.9% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 46

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 2.12 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.88)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.9%

Win Probability (After): 17.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:54 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 7 at SJSU 46) Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Marcus Phillips Jr. - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 -0.57 17.4% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.25 - 1.82 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.18)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.4%

Win Probability (After): 15.0%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:54 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 7 at SJSU 46) Cameron Friel pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 17 yds to the SJSt 29 for a 1ST down - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 2.06 15.0% 5.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 29

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.31 - 1.25 = 2.06

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.75)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.0%

Win Probability (After): 20.6%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:19 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 7 at SJSU 46) Timeout UNLV, clock 01:19 - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 0.00 16.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 29

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.31 - 3.31 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.69)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.3%

Win Probability (After): 16.3%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:19 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at SJSU 29) Cameron Friel sacked by Jordan Cobbs for a loss of 3 yards to the SJSt 32 - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 -1.08 19.8% -6.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 32

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 3.03 = -1.08

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.97)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.8%

Win Probability (After): 13.4%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:11 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at SJSU 29) Timeout UNLV, clock 01:11 - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 0.00 15.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 32

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 1.95 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.05)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.9%

Win Probability (After): 15.9%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:11 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 13 at SJSU 32) Cameron Friel pass incomplete to Marcus Phillips Jr. - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 -0.44 12.7% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 32

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.52 - 1.96 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.04)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.7%

Win Probability (After): 10.6%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:11 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 13 at SJSU 32) Cameron Friel run for 8 yds to the SJSt 24 - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 0.42 10.6% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 24

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.94 - 1.52 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.48)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.6%

Win Probability (After): 12.5%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:11 ESPN team id 2439 (4th & 5 at SJSU 24) Cameron Friel pass complete to Shelton Zeon III for 5 yds to the SJSt 19 for a 1ST down - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 1.84 12.5% 9.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 19

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.78 - 1.94 = 1.84

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.06)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.5%

Win Probability (After): 22.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:11 ESPN team id 2439 (1st & 10 at SJSU 19) Cameron Friel pass incomplete - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 -0.39 22.2% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.39 - 3.78 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.22)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 17 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.2%

Win Probability (After): 21.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:11 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 10 at SJSU 19) Cameron Friel pass complete to Shelton Zeon III for 8 yds to the SJSt 11 - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 0.66 21.2% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 11

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.05 - 3.39 = 0.66

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.61)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 18 plays, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.2%

Win Probability (After): 22.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:14 ESPN team id 2439 (2nd & 10 at SJSU 19) Timeout UNLV, clock 00:14 - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 0.00 17.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 11

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.05 - 4.05 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.95)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 18 plays, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.2%

Win Probability (After): 17.2%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2439 (3rd & 2 at SJSU 11) Cameron Friel sacked by Kyle Harmon for a loss of 8 yards to the SJSt 19 - SJSU 27, UNLV 20 -0.03 15.1% -15.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 19

Started Drive at: UNLV 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 2.04 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.96)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: SJSU 27, UNLV 20

Drive Summary: 19 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 27 (27) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2