Appalachian St 16 @ Louisiana 24

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 3.20 | Odds: APP -2.5, O/U 52.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 2026 ESPN team id 309
Total Plays 7884
Total EPA -8.761.8
  Offensive EPA 0.522.52
  Special Teams EPA -6.780.06
  Penalty EPA -0.29-0.78
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA -2.210.00
Production ESPN team id 2026 ESPN team id 309
Scrimmage Plays 6473
  Yards 305398
  Yards/Play 4.775.45
  EPA 0.522.52
  EPA/Play 0.010.03
Passes 33 (52%)36 (49%)
  Yards 119210
  Yards/Play 3.615.83
  EPA -7.775.83
  EPA/Play -0.240.16
Rushes 31 (48%)37 (51%)
  Yards 193210
  Yards/Play 6.235.68
  EPA 8.30-3.31
  EPA/Play 0.27-0.09
Rushing ESPN team id 2026 ESPN team id 309
Scrimmage Plays 6473
Rushes 31 (48%)37 (51%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 1 (3%)0 (0%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 0 (0%)0 (0%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 8 (26%)9 (24%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 10 (32%)20 (54%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 20 (65%)12 (32%)
OL Line Yards 58.437.5
  Per Carry 1.881.01
Highlight Yards 71.5105.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 3.588.79
Explosiveness ESPN team id 2026 ESPN team id 309
Total Plays 7884
Scrimmage Plays 6473
Explosive Plays 3 (5%)7 (10%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 1 (3%)5 (14%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 2 (6%)2 (5%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -12.87-21.77
  EPA/Play -0.21-0.33
  When Passing -12.41-10.22
    EPA/Play -0.38-0.28
  When Rushing -0.46-11.55
    EPA/Play -0.02-0.33
Situational ESPN team id 2026 ESPN team id 309
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 24 (38%)23 (32%)
  When Passing 9 (27%)12 (33%)
  When Rushing 15 (48%)11 (30%)
  On Standard Downs 17 (46%)8 (20%)
  On Passing Downs 7 (26%)15 (45%)
  On Early Downs 18 (38%)16 (29%)
  On Late Downs 6 (35%)7 (39%)
  During "Middle 8" 7 (50%)2 (29%)
Early Downs 4755
  First Downs Created 10 (21%)11 (20%)
  EPA -2.46-2.04
  EPA/Play -0.05-0.04
  Passes 22 (47%)26 (47%)
  Rushes 25 (53%)29 (53%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 5 (23%)7 (27%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 13 (52%)9 (31%)
"Middle 8" Plays 147
  EPA 9.940.72
  EPA/play 0.710.10
  Passes 7 (50%)5 (71%)
  Rushes 7 (50%)2 (29%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 5 (71%)2 (40%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 2 (29%)0 (0%)
Drives ESPN team id 2026 ESPN team id 309
Total 1213
Avg Starting Field Position Own 24Own 24
Plays/Drive 8.137.41
Yards/Drive 40.0643.68
Available Yards % 53%57%
Defensive ESPN team id 2026 ESPN team id 309
Scrimmage Plays 7364
Stop Rate 62%50%
Havoc Plays Created 11 (15%)6 (9%)
  Passing 4 (11%)3 (9%)
  Rushing 7 (19%)3 (10%)
TFLs Generated 116
  Passing 43
  Rushing 73
Sacks Generated 4 (11%)3 (9%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 00
Fumbles Forced 01
Turnovers ESPN team id 2026 ESPN team id 309
Turnovers 11
  Fumbles 11
  Fumbles Lost 11
  Fumbles Recovered 00
  Interceptions 00
Turnover Margin 00
Expected Turnovers 1.01.0
Expected Turnover Margin 0.00.0
Turnover Luck (pts) 0.00.0
Special Teams ESPN team id 2026 ESPN team id 309
Total Plays 14 11
Total EPA -6.78 0.06
  Field Goal EPA -0.1 0.92
  Punting EPA -3.23 2.37
  Kickoff Return EPA -3.46 -3.23

Appalachian State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Chase Brice 12/30, 119 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 Scks, 70.2 xQBR 3.61 -0.24 -7.77 27% -12.0%
Rush attempts
Chase Brice 8 carries, 75 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.38 1.08 8.67 75% 18.0%
Camerun Peoples 8 carries, 61 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.62 0.35 2.78 50% 10.0%
Daetrich Harrington 3 carries, 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.02 0.07 67% 0.0%
Nate Noel 12 carries, 42 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.50 -0.27 -3.22 25% -15.0%
Pass targets
Thomas Hennigan 6 catches (8 targets), 71 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.83 1.21 9.72 75% 17.0%
Corey Sutton 2 catches (5 targets), 28 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.00 0.12 0.58 40% 0.0%
Christian Wells 1 catch (2 targets), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 0.24 0.48 50% -1.0%
Mike Evans 1 catch (1 target), 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.56 -0.56 0% 0.0%
Dashaun Davis 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.83 -0.83 0% -1.0%
Jalen Virgil 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.39 -1.39 0% -3.0%
Daetrich Harrington 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.72 -1.44 0% -2.0%
Malik Williams 2 catches (6 targets), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.50 -0.78 -4.70 0% -5.0%

Louisiana [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Levi Lewis 15/30, 210 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 4 Scks, 62.7 xQBR 6.18 0.23 7.96 35% 6.0%
Chandler Fields 0/2, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 10.9 xQBR 0.00 -1.07 -2.14 0% -3.0%
Rush attempts
Emani Bailey 14 carries, 117 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.36 0.55 7.64 57% 17.0%
Levi Lewis 5 carries, 65 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.00 0.39 1.96 20% 1.0%
TEAM 1 carry, -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.00 -0.35 -0.35 0% 2.0%
Chris Smith 9 carries, 21 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.33 -0.61 -5.45 22% -9.0%
Montrell Johnson 8 carries, 8 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 1.00 -0.89 -7.10 0% -14.0%
Pass targets
Michael Jefferson 2 catches (3 targets), 41 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 20.50 1.81 5.42 67% 6.0%
Peter LeBlanc 4 catches (6 targets), 67 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.75 0.73 4.36 33% 13.0%
Emani Bailey 3 catches (3 targets), 29 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.67 1.19 3.56 100% 5.0%
Dontae Fleming 1 catch (2 targets), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 1.00 2.00 50% 0.0%
Errol Rogers Jr. 4 catches (6 targets), 49 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.25 0.31 1.86 50% 6.0%
Pearse Migl 1 catch (1 target), 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.00 1.62 1.62 100% 2.0%
Jacob Bernard 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.53 -0.53 0% 0.0%
Hunter Bergeron 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.62 -0.62 0% -1.0%
Jalen Williams 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.15 -2.29 0% -3.0%
Kyren Lacy 0 catches (5 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.54 -2.72 0% -7.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 2:38 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 10 at UL 43) Camerun Peoples 43 Yd Run (Chandler Staton Kick) - APP 7, UL 14 5.13 22.1% 12.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.87 = 5.13

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.13)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.1%

Win Probability (After): 34.3%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:06 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 10 at UL 24) Thomas Hennigan 24 Yd pass from Chase Brice (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) - APP 16, UL 24 4.64 3.0% 4.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 1.36 = 4.64

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.64)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.0%

Win Probability (After): 7.3%

Away Score: 10 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 12:14 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 9 at APP 35) Emani Bailey 35 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick) - APP 10, UL 24 4.20 81.8% 11.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.80 = 4.20

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.80)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.8%

Win Probability (After): 93.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:42 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 7 at UL 28) Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 35 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST down - APP 0, UL 0 4.17 37.6% 10.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 37

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.65 - -0.53 = 4.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.6%

Win Probability (After): 48.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:22 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 44) Levi Lewis 56 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick) - APP 0, UL 14 4.04 71.1% 10.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.96 = 4.04

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.96)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 92 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.1%

Win Probability (After): 82.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 9:55 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 17 at APP 27) Michael Jefferson 27 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Nate Snyder Kick) - APP 0, UL 7 3.78 47.5% 8.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.22 = 3.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.22)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.5%

Win Probability (After): 55.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:27 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 6 at UL 35) Chase Brice run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 28 for a 1ST down - APP 7, UL 17 3.63 25.1% 7.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 28

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.71 - 0.08 = 3.63

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.92)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.1%

Win Probability (After): 32.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:02 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 2 at APP 20) Montrell Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 21 - APP 10, UL 17 -2.95 78.7% -8.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 79

Started Drive at: UL 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - 3.19 = -2.95

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.19)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.24)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.7%

Win Probability (After): 70.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 11:57 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 3 at APP 30) Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 10 yds to the AppSt 20 for a 1ST down - APP 0, UL 0 2.88 44.8% 4.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 20

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.70 - 1.82 = 2.88

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.82)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.8%

Win Probability (After): 49.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:00 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 13 at UL 25) Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 16 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST down - APP 10, UL 17 2.73 72.6% 7.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 59

Started Drive at: UL 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.03 - 0.31 = 2.73

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.31)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.6%

Win Probability (After): 79.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 2:38 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 10 at UL 43) Camerun Peoples 43 Yd Run (Chandler Staton Kick) - APP 7, UL 14 5.13 22.1% 12.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.87 = 5.13

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.13)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.1%

Win Probability (After): 34.3%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:14 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 9 at APP 35) Emani Bailey 35 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick) - APP 10, UL 24 4.20 81.8% 11.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.80 = 4.20

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.80)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.8%

Win Probability (After): 93.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:22 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 44) Levi Lewis 56 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick) - APP 0, UL 14 4.04 71.1% 10.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.96 = 4.04

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.96)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 92 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.1%

Win Probability (After): 82.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 13:42 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 7 at UL 28) Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 35 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST down - APP 0, UL 0 4.17 37.6% 10.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 37

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.65 - -0.53 = 4.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.6%

Win Probability (After): 48.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:02 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 2 at APP 20) Montrell Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 21 - APP 10, UL 17 -2.95 78.7% -8.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 79

Started Drive at: UL 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - 3.19 = -2.95

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.19)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.24)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.7%

Win Probability (After): 70.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 9:55 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 17 at APP 27) Michael Jefferson 27 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Nate Snyder Kick) - APP 0, UL 7 3.78 47.5% 8.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.22 = 3.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.22)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.5%

Win Probability (After): 55.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:06 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 1 at UL 19) Chandler Staton 36 Yd Field Goal - APP 10, UL 17 -0.10 29.6% 8.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.10 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.90)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.6%

Win Probability (After): 37.8%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:27 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 6 at UL 35) Chase Brice run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 28 for a 1ST down - APP 7, UL 17 3.63 25.1% 7.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 28

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.71 - 0.08 = 3.63

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.92)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.1%

Win Probability (After): 32.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:00 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 13 at UL 25) Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 16 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST down - APP 10, UL 17 2.73 72.6% 7.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 59

Started Drive at: UL 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.03 - 0.31 = 2.73

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.31)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.6%

Win Probability (After): 79.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:26 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 10 at UL 46) Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 30 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST down - APP 7, UL 14 2.49 71.2% 6.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 24

Started Drive at: UL 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.33 - 0.84 = 2.49

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.84)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.2%

Win Probability (After): 78.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 9:55 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 17 at APP 27) Michael Jefferson 27 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Nate Snyder Kick) - APP 0, UL 7 3.78 47.5% 8.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.22 = 3.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.22)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.5%

Win Probability (After): 55.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:22 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 44) Levi Lewis 56 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick) - APP 0, UL 14 4.04 71.1% 10.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.96 = 4.04

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.96)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 92 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.1%

Win Probability (After): 82.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:38 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 10 at UL 43) Camerun Peoples 43 Yd Run (Chandler Staton Kick) - APP 7, UL 14 5.13 22.1% 12.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.87 = 5.13

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.13)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.1%

Win Probability (After): 34.3%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:01 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 2 at APP 16) Nate Snyder 33 Yd Field Goal - APP 7, UL 17 0.92 77.3% 5.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: UL 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.08 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.08)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.3%

Win Probability (After): 83.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q3 8:06 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 1 at UL 19) Chandler Staton 36 Yd Field Goal - APP 10, UL 17 -0.10 29.6% 8.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.10 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.90)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.6%

Win Probability (After): 37.8%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 12:14 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 9 at APP 35) Emani Bailey 35 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick) - APP 10, UL 24 4.20 81.8% 11.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.80 = 4.20

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.80)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.8%

Win Probability (After): 93.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:06 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 10 at UL 24) Thomas Hennigan 24 Yd pass from Chase Brice (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) - APP 16, UL 24 4.64 3.0% 4.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 1.36 = 4.64

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.64)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.0%

Win Probability (After): 7.3%

Away Score: 10 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 309 (Kickoff at UL 35) Michael Hughes kickoff for 62 yds , Chris Smith return for 22 yds to the LaLaf 25 - APP 0, UL 0 -1.10 41.6% -2.3%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.24 - 0.86 = -1.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.6%

Win Probability (After): 39.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:53 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 25) Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 1 yd to the LaLaf 26 - APP 0, UL 0 -0.56 41.4% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.28 - 0.84 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.84)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.4%

Win Probability (After): 40.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:24 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 9 at UL 26) Chris Smith run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 28 - APP 0, UL 0 -1.17 40.2% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 72

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.72 - 0.45 = -1.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.45)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.2%

Win Probability (After): 37.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:42 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 7 at UL 28) Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 35 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST down - APP 0, UL 0 4.17 37.6% 10.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 37

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.65 - -0.53 = 4.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.6%

Win Probability (After): 48.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:16 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at APP 37) Chris Smith run for 7 yds to the AppSt 30 - APP 0, UL 0 0.56 46.4% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 30

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.18 - 3.62 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.4%

Win Probability (After): 48.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:42 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 3 at APP 30) Levi Lewis pass incomplete - APP 0, UL 0 -0.81 46.8% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.37 - 4.19 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.8%

Win Probability (After): 45.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:37 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 3 at APP 30) Chris Smith run for no gain to the AppSt 30 - APP 0, UL 0 -1.64 45.7% -4.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.72 - 3.36 = -1.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.36)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.7%

Win Probability (After): 41.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:57 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 3 at APP 30) Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 10 yds to the AppSt 20 for a 1ST down - APP 0, UL 0 2.88 44.8% 4.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 20

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.70 - 1.82 = 2.88

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.82)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.8%

Win Probability (After): 49.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 11:14 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at APP 20) Smith, Chris rush for 1 yard to the APP STATE19, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE holding (Vallot, Shane) 10 yards to the APP STATE30, NO PLAY. - APP 0, UL 0 -1.10 48.9% -0.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 30

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.57 - 4.67 = -1.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.67)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.9%

Win Probability (After): 48.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:48 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 20 at APP 30) Montrell Johnson run for 3 yds to the AppSt 27 - APP 0, UL 0 -0.57 46.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 27

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.10 - 3.67 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.67)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.3%

Win Probability (After): 46.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:55 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 17 at APP 27) Michael Jefferson 27 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Nate Snyder Kick) - APP 0, UL 7 3.78 47.5% 8.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.22 = 3.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.22)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.5%

Win Probability (After): 55.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:55 ESPN team id 2026 (Kickoff at APP 35) Nate Snyder kickoff for 62 yds , Jalen Virgil return for 17 yds to the AppSt 20 - APP 0, UL 7 -1.33 40.8% -0.7%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80

Started Drive at: APP 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.37 - -0.04 = -1.33

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.04)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.8%

Win Probability (After): 40.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:50 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 20) Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the AppSt 27 - APP 0, UL 7 0.46 40.5% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 73

Started Drive at: APP 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - -0.26 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.26)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.5%

Win Probability (After): 41.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:20 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 3 at APP 27) Brice, Chase pass complete to Sutton, Corey for 40 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE33, PENALTY APP STATE ineligible downfield on pass (Hardy, Anderson) 5 yards to the APP STATE22, NO PLAY. - APP 0, UL 7 -0.96 41.5% -1.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 78

Started Drive at: APP 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.72 - 0.23 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.77)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.5%

Win Probability (After): 40.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:41 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 8 at APP 22) APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 17 - APP 0, UL 7 -0.46 40.3% -1.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 83

Started Drive at: APP 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.33 - -0.87 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.87)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.3%

Win Probability (After): 38.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:28 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 13 at APP 17) Chase Brice sacked by Zi'Yon Hill for a loss of 9 yards to the AppSt 8 - APP 0, UL 7 -1.58 38.2% -2.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 92

Started Drive at: APP 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.01 - -1.43 = -1.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.43)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-10.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.2%

Win Probability (After): 35.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:48 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 22 at APP 8) Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the AppSt 13 - APP 0, UL 7 -0.49 35.9% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 87

Started Drive at: APP 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.45 - -2.96 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.96)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-10.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.9%

Win Probability (After): 34.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:04 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 17 at APP 13) Xavier Subotsch punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 45 - APP 0, UL 7 0.12 34.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 55

Started Drive at: APP 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.27 - -3.39 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-10.39)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.27)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.4%

Win Probability (After): 34.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 7:04 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 45) Levi Lewis sacked by Nick Hampton for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 43 - APP 0, UL 7 -0.97 66.8% -1.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 57

Started Drive at: UL 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.38 - 3.34 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.8%

Win Probability (After): 65.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:21 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 12 at UL 43) Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Jalen Williams - APP 0, UL 7 -0.95 65.2% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: UL 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.33 - 2.28 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.28)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.2%

Win Probability (After): 63.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:15 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 12 at UL 43) Levi Lewis sacked by D'Marco Jackson for a loss of 12 yards to the LaLaf 31 - APP 0, UL 7 -1.70 64.0% -3.9%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 69

Started Drive at: UL 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.48 - 1.22 = -1.70

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.22)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.0%

Win Probability (After): 60.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:24 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 24 at UL 31) Rhys Byrns punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 25 - APP 0, UL 7 0.48 59.8% -0.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 75

Started Drive at: UL 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.03 - -0.45 = 0.48

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.55)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.03)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.8%

Win Probability (After): 59.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 5:24 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 25) Camerun Peoples run for 8 yds to the AppSt 33 - APP 0, UL 7 0.85 40.4% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.81 - -0.05 = 0.85

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.05)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.4%

Win Probability (After): 41.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:42 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 2 at APP 33) Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST down - APP 0, UL 7 0.19 41.8% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 64

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - 0.79 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.21)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.8%

Win Probability (After): 42.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:07 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 36) Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 11 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST down - APP 0, UL 7 0.72 42.1% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 53

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.69 - 0.98 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.02)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.1%

Win Probability (After): 43.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:28 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 47) Camerun Peoples run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 47 - APP 0, UL 7 0.37 42.9% 3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 47

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 1.70 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.30)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.9%

Win Probability (After): 45.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:54 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 4 at UL 47) Chase Brice sacked by Zi'Yon Hill for a loss of 7 yards to the AppSt 46 - APP 0, UL 7 -2.29 44.9% -6.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 54

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.21 - 2.08 = -2.29

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.92)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.9%

Win Probability (After): 38.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:08 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 11 at APP 46) Timeout APPALACHIAN ST, clock 02:08 - APP 0, UL 7 0.00 38.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.21 - -0.21 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.21)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.3%

Win Probability (After): 38.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:08 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 11 at APP 46) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalen Virgil - APP 0, UL 7 -1.39 37.3% -3.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.65 - -0.26 = -1.39

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.26)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.3%

Win Probability (After): 34.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:47 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 11 at APP 46) Xavier Subotsch punt for 42 yds , Eric Garror returns for no gain to the LaLaf 12 - APP 0, UL 7 0.03 34.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 88

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.52 - -1.55 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.55)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.52)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.0%

Win Probability (After): 33.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 1:47 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 12) Chris Smith run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 14 - APP 0, UL 7 -0.47 65.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 86

Started Drive at: UL 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.05 - 1.52 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.52)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.1%

Win Probability (After): 64.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 1:14 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 8 at UL 14) Chris Smith run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 25 for a 1ST down - APP 0, UL 7 1.12 66.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 75

Started Drive at: UL 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.20 - 1.08 = 1.12

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.08)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.1%

Win Probability (After): 66.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 0:43 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 25) Chris Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 24 - APP 0, UL 7 -0.88 67.4% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 76

Started Drive at: UL 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.34 - 2.22 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.22)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.4%

Win Probability (After): 66.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 11 at UL 24) LOUISIANA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 19 - APP 0, UL 7 -0.29 64.6% -0.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 81

Started Drive at: UL 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.04 - 1.32 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.32)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.6%

Win Probability (After): 63.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 16 at UL 19) Chris Smith run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 21 - APP 0, UL 7 -0.94 63.9% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 79

Started Drive at: UL 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.10 - 1.04 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.04)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.9%

Win Probability (After): 62.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:17 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 14 at UL 21) APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the LaLaf 26 - APP 0, UL 7 0.67 63.0% 1.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 74

Started Drive at: UL 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.72 - 0.05 = 0.67

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.05)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.0%

Win Probability (After): 64.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:01 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 9 at UL 26) LOUISIANA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 21 - APP 0, UL 7 -0.62 64.5% -1.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 79

Started Drive at: UL 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 0.67 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.67)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.5%

Win Probability (After): 63.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:40 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 14 at UL 21) Levi Lewis sacked by Nick Hampton for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 19 - APP 0, UL 7 -1.10 62.8% -2.8%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 81

Started Drive at: UL 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.05 - 0.05 = -1.10

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.05)

Score Difference (End): 7 (5.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.8%

Win Probability (After): 60.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:54 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 16 at UL 19) Rhys Byrns punt for 46 yds , Malik Williams returns for no gain to the AppSt 35 - APP 0, UL 7 -0.03 60.1% 2.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 65

Started Drive at: UL 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.15 - -1.12 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): 7 (5.88)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.85)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.1%

Win Probability (After): 62.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 12:54 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 35) Chase Brice pass incomplete - APP 0, UL 7 -0.60 36.9% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: APP 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - 1.13 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.87)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.9%

Win Probability (After): 36.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:46 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 10 at APP 35) Daetrich Harrington run for no gain to the AppSt 35 - APP 0, UL 7 -0.80 36.2% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: APP 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.27 - 0.53 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.47)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.2%

Win Probability (After): 34.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:07 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 10 at APP 35) Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 7 yds to the AppSt 42 - APP 0, UL 7 -0.83 35.0% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 58

Started Drive at: APP 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.02 - -0.19 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.19)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.0%

Win Probability (After): 34.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:18 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 3 at APP 42) Xavier Subotsch punt for 50 yds, downed at the LaLaf 8 - APP 0, UL 7 -0.45 34.6% 0.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 92

Started Drive at: APP 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.04 - -0.59 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.59)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.04)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.6%

Win Probability (After): 35.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:18 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 8) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Errol Rogers Jr. - APP 0, UL 7 -0.65 64.8% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 92

Started Drive at: UL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.31 - 0.97 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.97)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.8%

Win Probability (After): 63.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:13 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 10 at UL 8) Levi Lewis pass complete to Pearse Migl for 14 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST down - APP 0, UL 7 1.62 63.7% 2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 78

Started Drive at: UL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 0.32 = 1.62

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.32)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.7%

Win Probability (After): 66.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:54 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 22) Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 8 yds to the LaLaf 30 - APP 0, UL 7 0.53 65.9% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 70

Started Drive at: UL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 1.93 = 0.53

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.93)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.9%

Win Probability (After): 66.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:32 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 2 at UL 30) Levi Lewis run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST down - APP 0, UL 7 0.00 70.1% -3.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 67

Started Drive at: UL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.51 - 2.51 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.51)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.1%

Win Probability (After): 66.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:04 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 33) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jacob Bernard - APP 0, UL 7 -0.53 70.3% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: UL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - 2.50 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.50)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.3%

Win Probability (After): 69.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:58 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 10 at UL 33) Emani Bailey run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST down - APP 0, UL 7 1.29 69.9% 2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 56

Started Drive at: UL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.15 - 1.86 = 1.29

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.86)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.9%

Win Probability (After): 72.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:22 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 44) Levi Lewis 56 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick) - APP 0, UL 14 4.04 71.1% 10.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.96 = 4.04

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.96)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 92 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.1%

Win Probability (After): 82.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:22 ESPN team id 2026 (Kickoff at APP 35) Nate Snyder kickoff for 62 yds , Jalen Virgil return for 36 yds to the AppSt 39 - APP 0, UL 14 0.18 20.7% 1.0%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 61

Started Drive at: APP 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - -0.12 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.12)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.7%

Win Probability (After): 21.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:15 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 39) Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the AppSt 44 - APP 0, UL 14 0.19 22.2% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 56

Started Drive at: APP 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.22 - 1.03 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.97)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.2%

Win Probability (After): 22.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:44 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 5 at APP 44) Nate Noel run for 14 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST down - APP 0, UL 14 1.32 22.3% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 42

Started Drive at: APP 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - 1.17 = 1.32

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.83)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.3%

Win Probability (After): 23.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:30 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at UL 42) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Malik Williams - APP 0, UL 14 -0.68 23.8% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 42

Started Drive at: APP 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.78 - 2.46 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.54)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.8%

Win Probability (After): 22.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:24 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 10 at UL 42) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Thomas Hennigan - APP 0, UL 14 -0.80 22.4% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 42

Started Drive at: APP 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 1.66 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.34)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.4%

Win Probability (After): 21.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:19 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 10 at UL 42) Camerun Peoples run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 43 - APP 0, UL 14 -1.99 21.0% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 43

Started Drive at: APP 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.19 - 0.80 = -1.99

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.20)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.0%

Win Probability (After): 19.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:37 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 11 at UL 43) Xavier Subotsch punt for 43 yds for a touchback - APP 0, UL 14 -0.76 19.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 80

Started Drive at: APP 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.73 - -0.97 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.97)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.73)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.1%

Win Probability (After): 18.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 7:37 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 20) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren Lacy - APP 0, UL 14 -0.62 81.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 1.76 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.76)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.4%

Win Probability (After): 81.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:31 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 10 at UL 20) Chris Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 19 - APP 0, UL 14 -1.32 81.1% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 81

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.13 - 1.19 = -1.32

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.19)

Score Difference (End): 14 (13.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.1%

Win Probability (After): 79.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:46 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 11 at UL 19) Levi Lewis pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 14 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST down - APP 0, UL 14 2.23 80.2% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 67

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 0.12 = 2.23

Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.12)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.2%

Win Probability (After): 81.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:19 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 33) Chris Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 32 - APP 0, UL 14 -0.70 81.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 68

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 2.30 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.30)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.2%

Win Probability (After): 81.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:41 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 11 at UL 32) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren Lacy - APP 0, UL 14 -0.53 80.4% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 68

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - 0.98 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.98)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.4%

Win Probability (After): 79.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:35 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 11 at UL 32) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jalen Williams - APP 0, UL 14 -1.35 79.6% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 68

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.96 - 0.39 = -1.35

Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.39)

Score Difference (End): 14 (13.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.6%

Win Probability (After): 78.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:17 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 11 at UL 32) Rhys Byrns punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 25 - APP 0, UL 14 0.55 78.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 75

Started Drive at: UL 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.22 - -0.77 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): 14 (13.23)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.78)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.8%

Win Probability (After): 78.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:17 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 25) Chase Brice run for 4 yds to the AppSt 29 - APP 0, UL 14 -0.09 21.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.28 - 0.37 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.63)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.1%

Win Probability (After): 20.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:43 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 6 at APP 29) Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the AppSt 31 - APP 0, UL 14 -0.41 20.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 69

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - 0.37 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.63)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.6%

Win Probability (After): 20.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:01 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 4 at APP 31) Chase Brice run for 10 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST down - APP 0, UL 14 1.62 20.2% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 59

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - 0.02 = 1.62

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.98)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.2%

Win Probability (After): 22.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:23 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 41) Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 16 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST down - APP 0, UL 14 1.08 22.4% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 43

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.64 - 1.56 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.44)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.4%

Win Probability (After): 22.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:52 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at UL 43) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Corey Sutton - APP 0, UL 14 -0.35 22.8% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 43

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 2.30 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.70)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 0, UL 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.8%

Win Probability (After): 22.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:38 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 10 at UL 43) Camerun Peoples 43 Yd Run (Chandler Staton Kick) - APP 7, UL 14 5.13 22.1% 12.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.87 = 5.13

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.13)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.1%

Win Probability (After): 34.3%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:38 ESPN team id 309 (Kickoff at UL 35) Michael Hughes kickoff for 58 yds , Chris Smith return for 14 yds to the LaLaf 21 - APP 7, UL 14 -0.81 70.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 79

Started Drive at: UL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.31 - 1.12 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.12)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.1%

Win Probability (After): 69.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:33 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 21) Montrell Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 23 - APP 7, UL 14 -0.44 69.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 77

Started Drive at: UL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 1.00 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.00)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.6%

Win Probability (After): 69.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:50 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 8 at UL 23) Levi Lewis pass incomplete - APP 7, UL 14 -0.64 69.3% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77

Started Drive at: UL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - 0.59 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.59)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.3%

Win Probability (After): 68.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:42 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 8 at UL 23) Levi Lewis run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 26 - APP 7, UL 14 -0.65 67.7% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 74

Started Drive at: UL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.58 - 0.08 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.08)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.7%

Win Probability (After): 65.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:37 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 5 at UL 26) Timeout APPALACHIAN ST, clock 01:37 - APP 7, UL 14 0.00 65.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: UL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.58 - -0.58 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.42)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.3%

Win Probability (After): 65.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:28 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 5 at UL 26) Rhys Byrns punt for 55 yds , Malik Williams returns for no gain to the AppSt 19 - APP 7, UL 14 0.18 65.6% 3.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 81

Started Drive at: UL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.36 - -0.54 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.46)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.64)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.6%

Win Probability (After): 69.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:28 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 19) Chase Brice run for 11 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST down - APP 7, UL 14 0.57 30.8% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 70

Started Drive at: APP 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - 0.23 = 0.57

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.77)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.8%

Win Probability (After): 31.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:20 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 30) Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 7 yds to the AppSt 37 - APP 7, UL 14 0.13 31.9% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 63

Started Drive at: APP 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.97 - 0.84 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.16)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.9%

Win Probability (After): 32.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:59 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 3 at APP 37) Brice, Chase rush for 15 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE48, PENALTY APP STATE holding 10 yards to the APP STATE27, NO PLAY. - APP 7, UL 14 -0.64 32.1% -2.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 73

Started Drive at: APP 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.29 - 0.93 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.07)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.1%

Win Probability (After): 29.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:51 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 13 at APP 27) Timeout LOUISIANA, clock 00:51 - APP 7, UL 14 0.00 29.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: APP 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.29 - 0.29 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.71)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.9%

Win Probability (After): 29.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:51 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 13 at APP 27) Nate Noel run for no gain to the AppSt 27 - APP 7, UL 14 -0.16 30.6% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: APP 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.11 - 0.26 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.74)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.6%

Win Probability (After): 29.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:46 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 13 at APP 27) Timeout LOUISIANA, clock 00:46 - APP 7, UL 14 0.00 29.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: APP 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.11 - 0.11 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.89)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.7%

Win Probability (After): 29.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:46 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 13 at APP 27) Nate Noel run for no gain to the AppSt 27 - APP 7, UL 14 -0.55 29.9% -3.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: APP 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.49 - 0.06 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.94)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.9%

Win Probability (After): 26.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:41 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 13 at APP 27) Timeout LOUISIANA, clock 00:41 - APP 7, UL 14 0.00 26.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: APP 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.49 - -0.49 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.49)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.4%

Win Probability (After): 26.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:32 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 13 at APP 27) Xavier Subotsch punt for 37 yds , Eric Garror returns for 10 yds to the LaLaf 46 - APP 7, UL 14 -1.12 27.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 54

Started Drive at: APP 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.17 - -0.04 = -1.12

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.04)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.17)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.8%

Win Probability (After): 28.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:32 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 46) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren Lacy - APP 7, UL 14 -0.08 72.2% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54

Started Drive at: UL 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.05 - 1.12 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.12)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.2%

Win Probability (After): 71.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:26 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 10 at UL 46) Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 30 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST down - APP 7, UL 14 2.49 71.2% 6.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 24

Started Drive at: UL 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.33 - 0.84 = 2.49

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.84)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.2%

Win Probability (After): 78.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:20 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at APP 24) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Peter LeBlanc - APP 7, UL 14 -0.03 77.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: UL 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 3.02 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.02)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.3%

Win Probability (After): 77.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:15 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 10 at APP 24) Levi Lewis pass complete to Emani Bailey for 3 yds to the AppSt 21 - APP 7, UL 14 0.07 76.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 21

Started Drive at: UL 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.77 - 2.70 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.70)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.6%

Win Probability (After): 76.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:12 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 7 at APP 21) APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the AppSt 16 - APP 7, UL 14 0.67 76.0% 2.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 16

Started Drive at: UL 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.29 - 2.62 = 0.67

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.62)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.0%

Win Probability (After): 78.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:06 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 2 at APP 16) Timeout APPALACHIAN ST, clock 00:06 - APP 7, UL 14 0.00 78.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: UL 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.29 - 3.29 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.29)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.5%

Win Probability (After): 78.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q2 0:01 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 2 at APP 16) Nate Snyder 33 Yd Field Goal - APP 7, UL 17 0.92 77.3% 5.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: UL 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.08 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.08)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.3%

Win Probability (After): 83.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q2 0:01 ESPN team id 2026 (Kickoff at APP 35) Nate Snyder kickoff for 45 yds , Logan Doublin return for no gain to the AppSt 20 - APP 7, UL 17 -0.02 24.9% 1.3%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.02 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.98)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.9%

Win Probability (After): 26.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2026 (Kickoff at APP 35) Nate Snyder kickoff for 61 yds , Jalen Virgil return for 20 yds to the AppSt 24 - APP 7, UL 17 -1.16 26.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 76

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.22 - -0.06 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.06)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-11.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.1%

Win Probability (After): 25.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:55 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 24) Noel, Nate rush for 1 yard to the APP STATE25, PENALTY APP STATE personal foul 12 yards to the APP STATE12, NO PLAY. - APP 7, UL 17 -0.98 27.4% -4.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 88

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.13 - -0.15 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.15)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-11.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.4%

Win Probability (After): 23.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:30 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 22 at APP 12) Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 12 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST down - APP 7, UL 17 2.27 25.5% 3.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 61

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - -1.08 = 2.27

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-11.13)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.5%

Win Probability (After): 29.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:10 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 39) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Malik Williams - APP 7, UL 17 -0.60 29.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.54 - 1.14 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.86)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.4%

Win Probability (After): 28.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:01 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 10 at APP 39) Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the AppSt 43 - APP 7, UL 17 -0.29 28.1% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 57

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.25 - 0.55 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.45)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.1%

Win Probability (After): 26.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:22 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 6 at APP 43) Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 8 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST down - APP 7, UL 17 1.95 26.2% 5.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 49

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 0.29 = 1.95

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.71)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.2%

Win Probability (After): 31.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:49 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at UL 49) Nate Noel run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line - APP 7, UL 17 -1.18 31.0% -3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 50

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.00 - 2.19 = -1.18

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.81)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.0%

Win Probability (After): 27.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:11 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 11 at 50) Chase Brice run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 46 - APP 7, UL 17 -0.16 27.2% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 46

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - 0.96 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.04)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.2%

Win Probability (After): 27.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:26 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 7 at UL 46) Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 7 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST down - APP 7, UL 17 2.11 27.0% 5.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 39

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.84 - 0.73 = 2.11

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.27)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.0%

Win Probability (After): 32.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:59 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at UL 39) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Corey Sutton - APP 7, UL 17 -0.65 31.9% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 2.83 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.17)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.9%

Win Probability (After): 30.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:49 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 10 at UL 39) Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 35 - APP 7, UL 17 -0.54 30.1% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 35

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.75 - 2.29 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.71)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.1%

Win Probability (After): 28.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:33 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 6 at UL 35) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Corey Sutton - APP 7, UL 17 -1.76 27.7% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.11 - 1.87 = -1.76

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.13)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.7%

Win Probability (After): 25.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:27 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 6 at UL 35) Chase Brice run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 28 for a 1ST down - APP 7, UL 17 3.63 25.1% 7.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 28

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.71 - 0.08 = 3.63

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.92)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.1%

Win Probability (After): 32.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:52 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at UL 28) Chase Brice run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 19 - APP 7, UL 17 0.74 32.3% 4.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 19

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.55 - 3.81 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.19)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.3%

Win Probability (After): 36.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:32 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 1 at UL 19) Camerun Peoples run for no gain to the LaLaf 19 - APP 7, UL 17 -0.53 35.8% -2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 4.61 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.39)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.8%

Win Probability (After): 33.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:55 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 1 at UL 19) Camerun Peoples run for no gain to the LaLaf 19 - APP 7, UL 17 -0.84 33.4% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.17 - 4.01 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.99)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 7, UL 17

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.4%

Win Probability (After): 31.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:06 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 1 at UL 19) Chandler Staton 36 Yd Field Goal - APP 10, UL 17 -0.10 29.6% 8.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.10 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.90)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.6%

Win Probability (After): 37.8%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 8:06 ESPN team id 309 (Kickoff at UL 35) Michael Hughes kickoff for 65 yds , Chris Smith return for 18 yds to the LaLaf 18 - APP 10, UL 17 -1.32 70.7% -0.7%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 82

Started Drive at: UL 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.81 - 2.13 = -1.32

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.13)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.7%

Win Probability (After): 70.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:59 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 18) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Hunter Bergeron - APP 10, UL 17 -0.62 70.6% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 82

Started Drive at: UL 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.27 - 1.89 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.89)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.6%

Win Probability (After): 69.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:54 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 10 at UL 18) Emani Bailey run for 15 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST down - APP 10, UL 17 1.33 69.8% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 67

Started Drive at: UL 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.60 - 1.27 = 1.33

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.27)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.8%

Win Probability (After): 70.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:37 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 33) Emani Bailey run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST down - APP 10, UL 17 0.54 70.8% 1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 57

Started Drive at: UL 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.14 - 2.60 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.60)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.8%

Win Probability (After): 72.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:00 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 43) Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 46 - APP 10, UL 17 -0.37 72.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 54

Started Drive at: UL 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 3.19 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.19)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.6%

Win Probability (After): 72.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:26 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 7 at UL 46) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren Lacy - APP 10, UL 17 -0.90 73.1% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54

Started Drive at: UL 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.90 - 2.80 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.80)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.1%

Win Probability (After): 71.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:18 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 7 at UL 46) Levi Lewis pass complete to Emani Bailey for 13 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST down - APP 10, UL 17 2.16 72.3% 4.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 41

Started Drive at: UL 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.01 - 1.85 = 2.16

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.85)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.3%

Win Probability (After): 76.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:01 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at APP 41) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren Lacy - APP 10, UL 17 -0.60 78.0% -4.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41

Started Drive at: UL 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 4.04 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.04)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.0%

Win Probability (After): 74.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:56 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 10 at APP 41) Emani Bailey run for 13 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST down - APP 10, UL 17 1.24 74.7% 4.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 28

Started Drive at: UL 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.70 - 3.47 = 1.24

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.47)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.7%

Win Probability (After): 79.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:15 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at APP 28) Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the AppSt 23 - APP 10, UL 17 0.01 80.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 23

Started Drive at: UL 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.70 - 4.69 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.69)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.1%

Win Probability (After): 79.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:35 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 5 at APP 23) Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 2 yds to the AppSt 21 - APP 10, UL 17 -0.36 82.3% -3.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 21

Started Drive at: UL 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 4.70 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.70)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.3%

Win Probability (After): 79.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:51 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 3 at APP 21) Montrell Johnson run for 1 yd to the AppSt 20 - APP 10, UL 17 -1.18 81.5% -3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 20

Started Drive at: UL 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.18 - 4.35 = -1.18

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.35)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.5%

Win Probability (After): 78.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:02 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 2 at APP 20) Montrell Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 21 - APP 10, UL 17 -2.95 78.7% -8.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 79

Started Drive at: UL 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - 3.19 = -2.95

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.19)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.24)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.7%

Win Probability (After): 70.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:02 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 21) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Christian Wells - APP 10, UL 17 -0.59 29.4% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 79

Started Drive at: APP 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.79 - -0.21 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.21)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.4%

Win Probability (After): 27.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:56 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 10 at APP 21) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Daetrich Harrington - APP 10, UL 17 -0.88 27.6% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 79

Started Drive at: APP 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.70 - -0.82 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.82)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.6%

Win Probability (After): 25.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:52 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 10 at APP 21) Chase Brice pass incomplete - APP 10, UL 17 -1.17 25.9% -4.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 79

Started Drive at: APP 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.89 - -1.73 = -1.17

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.73)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.9%

Win Probability (After): 21.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:36 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 10 at APP 21) Xavier Subotsch punt for 40 yds , Eric Garror returns for 2 yds to the LaLaf 41 - APP 10, UL 17 -0.23 21.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 59

Started Drive at: APP 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.13 - -2.89 = -0.23

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.89)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.13)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.8%

Win Probability (After): 21.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 2:36 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 41) Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 1 yd to the LaLaf 42 - APP 10, UL 17 -0.52 78.4% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 58

Started Drive at: UL 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.60 - 3.12 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.12)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.4%

Win Probability (After): 76.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:01 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 9 at UL 42) Levi Lewis sacked by Demetrius Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 36 - APP 10, UL 17 -1.61 77.8% -6.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 64

Started Drive at: UL 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 2.61 = -1.61

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.61)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.8%

Win Probability (After): 71.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:29 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 15 at UL 36) Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Peter LeBlanc - APP 10, UL 17 -1.19 72.0% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: UL 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.16 - 1.03 = -1.19

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.03)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.0%

Win Probability (After): 70.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:16 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 15 at UL 36) Rhys Byrns punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Malik Williams at the AppSt 22 - APP 10, UL 17 0.15 70.9% -0.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 78

Started Drive at: UL 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.00 - -0.15 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.85)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.9%

Win Probability (After): 70.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:16 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 22) Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the AppSt 26 - APP 10, UL 17 -0.11 30.0% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 74

Started Drive at: APP 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - 0.00 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.00)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.0%

Win Probability (After): 29.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:59 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 6 at APP 26) Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the AppSt 27 - APP 10, UL 17 -0.79 29.0% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 73

Started Drive at: APP 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.87 - -0.09 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.09)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.0%

Win Probability (After): 27.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:07 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 5 at APP 27) Chase Brice pass incomplete - APP 10, UL 17 -1.55 24.7% -2.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: APP 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.36 - -0.82 = -1.55

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.82)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.7%

Win Probability (After): 21.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:50 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 5 at APP 27) Xavier Subotsch punt for 43 yds , Eric Garror returns for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 28 - APP 10, UL 17 -0.09 22.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 72

Started Drive at: APP 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.44 - -2.35 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.35)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.44)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.8%

Win Probability (After): 22.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:50 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 28) Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 30 - APP 10, UL 17 -0.48 77.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 70

Started Drive at: UL 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.94 - 2.42 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.42)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.7%

Win Probability (After): 77.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:08 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 8 at UL 30) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Dontae Fleming - APP 10, UL 17 -0.88 77.7% -4.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: UL 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 1.89 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.89)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.7%

Win Probability (After): 73.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:00 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 8 at UL 30) LOUISIANA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 25 - APP 10, UL 17 -0.67 74.9% -2.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 75

Started Drive at: UL 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.30 - 0.97 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.97)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.9%

Win Probability (After): 72.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:00 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 13 at UL 25) Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 16 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST down - APP 10, UL 17 2.73 72.6% 7.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 59

Started Drive at: UL 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.03 - 0.31 = 2.73

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.31)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.6%

Win Probability (After): 79.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:44 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 41) Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 23 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST down - APP 10, UL 17 1.12 80.0% 2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 36

Started Drive at: UL 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.17 - 3.05 = 1.12

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.05)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.0%

Win Probability (After): 82.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:15 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at APP 36) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Michael Jefferson - APP 10, UL 17 -0.58 84.8% -3.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: UL 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 4.19 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.19)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.8%

Win Probability (After): 81.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:10 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 10 at APP 36) Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the AppSt 35 - APP 10, UL 17 -0.80 83.2% -2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 35

Started Drive at: UL 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 3.61 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.61)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:14 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 9 at APP 35) Emani Bailey 35 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick) - APP 10, UL 24 4.20 81.8% 11.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.80 = 4.20

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.80)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.8%

Win Probability (After): 93.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:14 ESPN team id 2026 (Kickoff at APP 35) Nate Snyder kickoff for 57 yds , Jalen Virgil return for 16 yds to the AppSt 24 - APP 10, UL 24 -1.13 8.3% -0.4%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 76

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.60 - -0.47 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.47)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.3%

Win Probability (After): 7.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:06 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 24) Chase Brice pass complete to Christian Wells for 10 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST down - APP 10, UL 24 1.07 8.0% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 66

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.50 - -0.57 = 1.07

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.57)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.0%

Win Probability (After): 8.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:39 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 34) Chase Brice pass complete to Mike Evans for 3 yds to the AppSt 37 - APP 10, UL 24 -0.56 8.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 63

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.50 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.50)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.6%

Win Probability (After): 8.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:03 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 7 at APP 37) Nate Noel run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 36 - APP 10, UL 24 -1.09 8.8% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 64

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.86 - 0.23 = -1.09

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.77)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.8%

Win Probability (After): 7.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:32 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 8 at APP 36) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Malik Williams - APP 10, UL 24 -1.37 5.8% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.85 - -0.48 = -1.37

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.48)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.8%

Win Probability (After): 4.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:18 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 8 at APP 36) Xavier Subotsch punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 23 - APP 10, UL 24 -0.73 4.8% -1.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 77

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.34 - -1.60 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.60)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.34)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.8%

Win Probability (After): 3.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:18 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 23) Montrell Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 19 - APP 10, UL 24 -1.00 97.2% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 81

Started Drive at: UL 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.17 - 2.17 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.17)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.2%

Win Probability (After): 95.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:43 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 14 at UL 19) Lewis, Levi pass incomplete to Stephens Jr., John, PENALTY APP STATE offside 5 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE24, NO PLAY. - APP 10, UL 24 0.55 96.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 76

Started Drive at: UL 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - 1.09 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.09)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.6%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:36 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 9 at UL 24) Montrell Johnson run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 29 - APP 10, UL 24 -0.22 97.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 71

Started Drive at: UL 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.41 - 1.64 = -0.22

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.64)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.5%

Win Probability (After): 97.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:51 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 4 at UL 29) Levi Lewis run for no gain to the LaLaf 29 - APP 10, UL 24 -1.29 97.6% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: UL 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.25 - 1.04 = -1.29

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.04)

Score Difference (End): 14 (13.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.6%

Win Probability (After): 95.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:16 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 4 at UL 29) Rhys Byrns punt for 54 yds, downed at the AppSt 17 - APP 10, UL 24 1.04 96.5% -2.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 83

Started Drive at: UL 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.41 - -0.62 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): 14 (13.38)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.41)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.5%

Win Probability (After): 94.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 8:16 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 17) Daetrich Harrington run for 6 yds to the AppSt 23 - APP 10, UL 24 0.06 5.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 77

Started Drive at: APP 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - -0.41 = 0.06

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.41)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.8%

Win Probability (After): 6.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:44 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 4 at APP 23) Daetrich Harrington run for 9 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST down - APP 10, UL 24 0.81 5.2% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 68

Started Drive at: APP 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - -0.28 = 0.81

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.28)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.2%

Win Probability (After): 6.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:23 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 32) Chase Brice run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - APP 10, UL 24 1.17 4.9% 1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 50

Started Drive at: APP 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.85 - 0.68 = 1.17

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.32)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.9%

Win Probability (After): 6.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:58 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at 50) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Daetrich Harrington - APP 10, UL 24 -0.56 5.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: APP 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 2.04 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.96)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 5.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:52 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 10 at 50) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Dashaun Davis - APP 10, UL 24 -0.83 4.8% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: APP 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 1.47 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.53)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.8%

Win Probability (After): 3.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:46 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 10 at 50) Timeout APPALACHIAN ST, clock 06:46 - APP 10, UL 24 0.00 3.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: APP 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 0.64 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.36)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.9%

Win Probability (After): 3.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:46 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 10 at 50) Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 14 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST down - APP 10, UL 24 2.26 3.4% 2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 36

Started Drive at: APP 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.22 - 0.96 = 2.26

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.04)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.4%

Win Probability (After): 5.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:30 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at UL 36) Chase Brice pass incomplete - APP 10, UL 24 -0.49 5.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: APP 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.71 - 3.20 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.80)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.3%

Win Probability (After): 5.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:23 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 10 at UL 36) Chase Brice run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 24 for a 1ST down - APP 10, UL 24 1.20 4.8% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 24

Started Drive at: APP 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.88 - 2.68 = 1.20

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.32)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.8%

Win Probability (After): 5.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:53 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at UL 24) Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for no gain to the LaLaf 24 - APP 10, UL 24 -0.52 5.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: APP 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.35 - 3.86 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.14)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 5.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:27 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 10 at UL 24) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Malik Williams - APP 10, UL 24 -0.71 4.2% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: APP 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 3.30 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.70)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.2%

Win Probability (After): 3.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:21 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 10 at UL 24) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Thomas Hennigan - APP 10, UL 24 -1.29 3.6% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: APP 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 2.56 = -1.29

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.44)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 10, UL 24

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.6%

Win Probability (After): 2.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:06 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 10 at UL 24) Thomas Hennigan 24 Yd pass from Chase Brice (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) - APP 16, UL 24 4.64 3.0% 4.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 1.36 = 4.64

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.64)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.0%

Win Probability (After): 7.3%

Away Score: 10 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:06 ESPN team id 309 (Kickoff at UL 35) Michael Hughes kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - APP 16, UL 24 0.00 94.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 1.02 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.02)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.7%

Win Probability (After): 94.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:06 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 25) Emani Bailey run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 26 - APP 16, UL 24 -0.45 94.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.57 - 1.02 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.02)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.7%

Win Probability (After): 94.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:29 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 9 at UL 26) Levi Lewis pass complete to Emani Bailey for 13 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST down - APP 16, UL 24 1.33 94.6% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 61

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - 0.48 = 1.33

Score Difference (Before): 8 (8.48)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.6%

Win Probability (After): 95.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:03 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 39) Emani Bailey run for 12 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST down - APP 16, UL 24 0.77 96.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 49

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 1.66 = 0.77

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.66)

Score Difference (End): 8 (10.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.4%

Win Probability (After): 95.9%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:28 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at APP 49) Levi Lewis run for 3 yds to the AppSt 46 - APP 16, UL 24 -0.14 98.2% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 46

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 2.09 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): 8 (10.09)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:52 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 7 at APP 46) Emani Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 47 - APP 16, UL 24 -0.40 98.1% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 47

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - 1.55 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.55)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.1%

Win Probability (After): 96.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:47 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 8 at APP 47) Timeout APPALACHIAN ST, clock 02:47 - APP 16, UL 24 0.00 97.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - 1.15 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.15)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.7%

Win Probability (After): 97.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:47 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 8 at APP 47) Emani Bailey run for 8 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST down - APP 16, UL 24 1.47 97.7% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 39

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.41 - 0.94 = 1.47

Score Difference (Before): 8 (8.94)

Score Difference (End): 8 (10.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.7%

Win Probability (After): 98.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:12 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at APP 39) Montrell Johnson run for 1 yd to the AppSt 38 - APP 16, UL 24 -0.28 98.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 38

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 2.31 = -0.28

Score Difference (Before): 8 (10.31)

Score Difference (End): 8 (10.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.8%

Win Probability (After): 98.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:04 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 9 at APP 38) Timeout APPALACHIAN ST, clock 02:04 - APP 16, UL 24 0.00 98.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 38

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 2.03 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 8 (10.03)

Score Difference (End): 8 (10.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.7%

Win Probability (After): 98.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 2:04 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 9 at APP 38) Montrell Johnson run for 1 yd to the AppSt 37 - APP 16, UL 24 -0.46 98.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 37

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.51 - 1.97 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.97)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.7%

Win Probability (After): 98.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 1:19 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 8 at APP 37) Timeout LOUISIANA, clock 01:19 - APP 16, UL 24 0.00 99.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 37

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.51 - 1.51 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.51)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 1:19 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 8 at APP 37) Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the AppSt 35 - APP 16, UL 24 -0.72 99.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 35

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - 1.54 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.54)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.0%

Win Probability (After): 98.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 0:33 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 6 at APP 35) Timeout LOUISIANA, clock 00:33 - APP 16, UL 24 0.00 99.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - 0.82 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 8 (8.82)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.0%

Win Probability (After): 99.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:29 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 6 at APP 35) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Errol Rogers Jr. - APP 16, UL 24 -1.51 98.7% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 65

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.59 - 0.92 = -1.51

Score Difference (Before): 8 (8.92)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.41)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.7%

Win Probability (After): 98.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:29 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 35) Brice, Chase pass incomplete, PENALTY ULLAFAYTTE unsportsmanlike conduct 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN APP STATE. - APP 16, UL 24 0.53 1.2% 0.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 50

Started Drive at: APP 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 0.42 = 0.53

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.58)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:23 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at 50) Chase Brice sacked by Chauncey Manac for a loss of 6 yards to the AppSt 44 Chase Brice fumbled, forced by Chauncey Manac, recovered by LaLaf Chauncey Manac , return for 0 yards - APP 16, UL 24 -1.94 1.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 44

Started Drive at: APP 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.20 - 0.74 = -1.94

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.26)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.20)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, -6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.6%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 0:23 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at APP 44) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 45 - APP 16, UL 24 -0.35 98.3% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 45

Started Drive at: APP 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 1.01 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.01)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: APP 16, UL 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.3%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 0