Pittsburgh 45 @ Wake Forest 21

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 4.92 | Odds: PITT -3.5, O/U 72.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 221 ESPN team id 154
Total Plays 85100
Total EPA -0.15-29.47
  Offensive EPA 1.64-22.84
  Special Teams EPA -3.30-7.00
  Penalty EPA 2.062
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA -0.55-1.63
Production ESPN team id 221 ESPN team id 154
Scrimmage Plays 7285
  Yards 400407
  Yards/Play 5.564.79
  EPA 1.64-22.84
  EPA/Play 0.02-0.27
Passes 37 (51%)51 (60%)
  Yards 273213
  Yards/Play 7.384.18
  EPA 2.14-19.76
  EPA/Play 0.06-0.39
Rushes 35 (49%)34 (40%)
  Yards 150117
  Yards/Play 4.293.44
  EPA -0.50-3.08
  EPA/Play -0.01-0.09
Rushing ESPN team id 221 ESPN team id 154
Scrimmage Plays 7285
Rushes 35 (49%)34 (40%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 2 (6%)1 (3%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 1 (50%)1 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 12 (34%)6 (18%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 18 (51%)17 (50%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 15 (43%)13 (38%)
OL Line Yards 13.656
  Per Carry 0.391.65
Highlight Yards 77.521.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 5.171.65
Explosiveness ESPN team id 221 ESPN team id 154
Total Plays 85100
Scrimmage Plays 7285
Explosive Plays 4 (6%)4 (5%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 2 (5%)2 (4%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 2 (6%)2 (6%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -11.56-32.86
  EPA/Play -0.17-0.41
  When Passing -3.22-24.91
    EPA/Play -0.09-0.49
  When Rushing -8.33-7.95
    EPA/Play -0.25-0.25
Situational ESPN team id 221 ESPN team id 154
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 35 (49%)33 (39%)
  When Passing 20 (54%)20 (39%)
  When Rushing 15 (43%)13 (38%)
  On Standard Downs 30 (57%)23 (41%)
  On Passing Downs 5 (26%)10 (34%)
  On Early Downs 30 (53%)26 (40%)
  On Late Downs 5 (33%)7 (35%)
  During "Middle 8" 5 (71%)6 (33%)
Early Downs 5765
  First Downs Created 16 (28%)12 (18%)
  EPA 7.85-6.42
  EPA/Play 0.14-0.10
  Passes 29 (51%)37 (57%)
  Rushes 28 (49%)28 (43%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 17 (59%)15 (41%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 13 (46%)11 (39%)
"Middle 8" Plays 718
  EPA 2.02-6.34
  EPA/play 0.29-0.35
  Passes 3 (43%)12 (67%)
  Rushes 4 (57%)6 (33%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 3 (100%)4 (33%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 2 (50%)2 (33%)
Drives ESPN team id 221 ESPN team id 154
Total 1616
Avg Starting Field Position Own 39Own 24
Plays/Drive 5.226.93
Yards/Drive 29.0432.20
Available Yards % 48%42%
Defensive ESPN team id 221 ESPN team id 154
Scrimmage Plays 8572
Stop Rate 45%53%
Havoc Plays Created 13 (15%)10 (14%)
  Passing 10 (20%)4 (11%)
  Rushing 3 (9%)6 (17%)
TFLs Generated 910
  Passing 64
  Rushing 36
Sacks Generated 5 (10%)3 (8%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 40
Fumbles Forced 01
Turnovers ESPN team id 221 ESPN team id 154
Turnovers 04
  Fumbles 30
  Fumbles Lost 00
  Fumbles Recovered 30
  Interceptions 04
Turnover Margin 4-4
Expected Turnovers 1.52.4
Expected Turnover Margin 0.9-0.9
Turnover Luck (pts) 15.6-15.6
Special Teams ESPN team id 221 ESPN team id 154
Total Plays 13 15
Total EPA -3.3 -7
  Field Goal EPA -2.22 0
  Punting EPA -1.07 -5.17
  Kickoff Return EPA 0 -1.83

Pittsburgh [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Jared Wayne 1/1, 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 83.2 xQBR 20.00 1.88 1.88 100% 8.0%
Kenny Pickett 20/33, 253 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 3 Scks, 72.4 xQBR 7.03 0.01 0.27 53% 16.0%
Rush attempts
Kenny Pickett 3 carries, 58 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 19.33 1.40 4.19 33% 10.0%
Israel Abanikanda 9 carries, 55 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.11 0.31 2.77 67% 13.0%
Jordan Addison 1 carry, 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.34 0.34 100% 0.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. 6 carries, 22 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.67 -0.15 -0.87 33% -2.0%
Vincent Davis 11 carries, 39 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.55 -0.12 -1.27 45% 3.0%
TEAM 5 carries, -29 yds, 0 TD, 2 Fum (0 lost) -5.80 -1.13 -5.65 0% -10.0%
Pass targets
Jared Wayne 3 catches (5 targets), 48 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.00 0.89 4.46 60% 12.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. 3 catches (3 targets), 30 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 0.87 2.62 100% 9.0%
Lucas Krull 2 catches (4 targets), 38 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 19.00 0.60 2.41 50% 10.0%
Jordan Addison 8 catches (14 targets), 126 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.75 0.15 2.07 64% 11.0%
Gavin Bartholomew 1 catch (1 target), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.56 0.56 100% 1.0%
Shocky Jacques-Louis 2 catches (2 targets), 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.25 0.49 50% 1.0%
Jaden Bradley 1 catch (2 targets), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.00 0.15 0.31 50% 1.0%
Vincent Davis 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.86 -0.86 0% -1.0%
Israel Abanikanda 1 catch (1 target), -3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -3.00 -1.26 -1.26 0% -2.0%

Wake Forest [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Sam Hartman 21/46, 213 yds, 3 TD, 4 INT, 5 Scks, 38.1 xQBR 4.18 -0.39 -19.76 39% -21.0%
Rush attempts
Sam Hartman 6 carries, 35 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.83 0.88 5.28 67% 10.0%
Taylor Morin 1 carry, 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 0.44 0.44 100% 2.0%
Christian Turner 6 carries, 34 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.67 0.01 0.06 50% 0.0%
Quinton Cooley 4 carries, 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.75 -0.28 -1.13 50% 0.0%
Ahmani Marshall 3 carries, 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.33 -0.56 -1.68 33% 0.0%
Justice Ellison 4 carries, 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.25 -0.64 -2.55 0% -5.0%
Christian Beal-Smith 10 carries, 24 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.40 -0.35 -3.50 20% -7.0%
Pass targets
Taylor Morin 4 catches (7 targets), 83 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 20.75 0.77 5.38 57% 12.0%
A.T. Perry 5 catches (11 targets), 54 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.80 0.35 3.84 45% 13.0%
Jaquarii Roberson 9 catches (14 targets), 54 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.11 1.57 57% -2.0%
Christian Beal-Smith 1 catch (1 target), 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.58 0.58 100% 4.0%
Quinton Cooley 1 catch (1 target), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.34 0.34 100% 1.0%
Ke'Shawn Williams 1 catch (2 targets), 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.00 -0.54 -1.07 50% 4.0%
Donald Stewart 0 catches (3 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.75 -2.25 0% -3.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 13:26 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 13 at PITT 49) Sam Hartman pass intercepted A.J. Woods return for 73 yds to the WFrst 3 - PITT 31, WAKE 21 -6.45 10.8% -5.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 3

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -6.22 - 0.23 = -6.45

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.77)

Score Difference (End): 10 (16.22)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 31, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 99 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.8%

Win Probability (After): 5.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:42 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 12) Sam Hartman pass intercepted for a TD Erick Hallett return for 19 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -6.06 1.8% -1.6%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 99

Started Drive at: WAKE 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - -0.94 = -6.06

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.94)

Score Difference (End): 24 (24.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 38 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:42 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 5 at PITT 42) Kenny Pickett 58 Yd Run (Sam Scarton Kick) - PITT 7, WAKE 0 5.95 66.4% 14.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 99

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.05 = 5.95

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.05)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.4%

Win Probability (After): 80.9%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:27 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 1 at WAKE 25) Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan Addison - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -4.66 45.0% -8.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 75

Started Drive at: PITT 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.11 - 2.55 = -4.66

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.45)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.11)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.0%

Win Probability (After): 37.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:05 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 8 at WAKE 49) Kenny Pickett sacked by Luiji Vilain for a loss of 11 yards to the Pitt 40 Kenny Pickett fumbled, forced by Luiji Vilain, recovered by Pitt Matt Goncalves , return for 0 yards - PITT 21, WAKE 21 -2.98 62.3% -9.0%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 60

Started Drive at: PITT 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.12 - 1.85 = -2.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.85)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.3%

Win Probability (After): 53.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:16 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 10 at WAKE 31) Sam Scarton 49 yd FG MISSED - PITT 14, WAKE 14 -2.92 61.5% -3.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 69

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.75 - 1.17 = -2.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.75)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.5%

Win Probability (After): 58.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:23 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 13 at 50) Sam Hartman pass intercepted Marquis Williams return for no gain to the Pitt 36 - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -2.73 62.0% -7.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 64

Started Drive at: WAKE 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.18 - 1.55 = -2.73

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.55)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.82)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.0%

Win Probability (After): 55.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:21 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & Goal at WAKE 4) Jared Wayne 4 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton Kick) - PITT 21, WAKE 21 2.71 50.0% 7.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: WAKE 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.29 = 2.71

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.71)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.0%

Win Probability (After): 57.0%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:31 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 15 at WAKE 24) Kenny Pickett sacked by Chase Jones and Jasheen Davis for a loss of 14 yards to the WFrst 38 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -2.68 73.6% -4.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 38

Started Drive at: PITT 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.12 - 2.57 = -2.68

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.57)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.6%

Win Probability (After): 69.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:31 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 10 at PITT 11) Sam Hartman 11 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick) - PITT 14, WAKE 14 2.66 29.9% 5.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 99

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.34 = 2.66

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.66)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 14

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.9%

Win Probability (After): 34.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 13:42 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 5 at PITT 42) Kenny Pickett 58 Yd Run (Sam Scarton Kick) - PITT 7, WAKE 0 5.95 66.4% 14.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 99

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.05 = 5.95

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.05)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.4%

Win Probability (After): 80.9%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:47 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at WAKE 12) Israel Abanikanda run for 12 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 31, WAKE 21 1.88 81.3% 9.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: WAKE 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.12 = 1.88

Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.12)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 31, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.3%

Win Probability (After): 90.3%

Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:05 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 8 at WAKE 49) Kenny Pickett sacked by Luiji Vilain for a loss of 11 yards to the Pitt 40 Kenny Pickett fumbled, forced by Luiji Vilain, recovered by Pitt Matt Goncalves , return for 0 yards - PITT 21, WAKE 21 -2.98 62.3% -9.0%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 60

Started Drive at: PITT 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.12 - 1.85 = -2.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.85)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.3%

Win Probability (After): 53.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:22 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 5 at PITT 35) Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 32 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, WAKE 21 2.66 60.9% 8.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 33

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - 0.75 = 2.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.75)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.9%

Win Probability (After): 69.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 3:07 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at PITT 26) Taylor Morin 26 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Nick Sciba Kick) - PITT 14, WAKE 21 2.65 48.3% 8.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99

Started Drive at: WAKE 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.35 = 2.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.35)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.3%

Win Probability (After): 56.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:16 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 7 at WAKE 29) Jared Wayne pass complete to Lucas Krull for 20 yds to the WFrst 9 for a 1ST down - PITT 14, WAKE 21 1.88 47.5% 8.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 9

Started Drive at: WAKE 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.14 - 3.26 = 1.88

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.74)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-1.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.5%

Win Probability (After): 56.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:37 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at WAKE 22) Rodney Hammond Jr. 22 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton Kick) - PITT 14, WAKE 7 2.28 71.1% 8.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.72 = 2.28

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.72)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.1%

Win Probability (After): 79.5%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:47 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 12 at PITT 38) Sam Hartman sacked by SirVocea Dennis for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 46 - PITT 21, WAKE 21 -1.76 47.2% -8.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 46

Started Drive at: WAKE 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 1.82 = -1.76

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.82)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.2%

Win Probability (After): 39.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:27 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 1 at WAKE 25) Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan Addison - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -4.66 45.0% -8.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 75

Started Drive at: PITT 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.11 - 2.55 = -4.66

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.45)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.11)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.0%

Win Probability (After): 37.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 10 at WAKE 23) Sam Scarton 41 Yd Field Goal - PITT 24, WAKE 21 0.70 66.5% 8.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.30 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.30)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.5%

Win Probability (After): 74.5%

Away Score: 21 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 13:42 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 5 at PITT 42) Kenny Pickett 58 Yd Run (Sam Scarton Kick) - PITT 7, WAKE 0 5.95 66.4% 14.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 99

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.05 = 5.95

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.05)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.4%

Win Probability (After): 80.9%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:48 ESPN team id 154 (1st & Goal at PITT 5) A.T. Perry 5 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Nick Sciba Kick) - PITT 7, WAKE 7 1.27 29.2% 4.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.73 = 1.27

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.27)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.2%

Win Probability (After): 33.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:37 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at WAKE 22) Rodney Hammond Jr. 22 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton Kick) - PITT 14, WAKE 7 2.28 71.1% 8.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.72 = 2.28

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.72)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.1%

Win Probability (After): 79.5%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:31 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 10 at PITT 11) Sam Hartman 11 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick) - PITT 14, WAKE 14 2.66 29.9% 5.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 99

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.34 = 2.66

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.66)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 14

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.9%

Win Probability (After): 34.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:07 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at PITT 26) Taylor Morin 26 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Nick Sciba Kick) - PITT 14, WAKE 21 2.65 48.3% 8.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99

Started Drive at: WAKE 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.35 = 2.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.35)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.3%

Win Probability (After): 56.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:21 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & Goal at WAKE 4) Jared Wayne 4 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton Kick) - PITT 21, WAKE 21 2.71 50.0% 7.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: WAKE 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.29 = 2.71

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.71)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.0%

Win Probability (After): 57.0%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 10 at WAKE 23) Sam Scarton 41 Yd Field Goal - PITT 24, WAKE 21 0.70 66.5% 8.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.30 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.30)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.5%

Win Probability (After): 74.5%

Away Score: 21 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:47 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at WAKE 12) Israel Abanikanda run for 12 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 31, WAKE 21 1.88 81.3% 9.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: WAKE 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.12 = 1.88

Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.12)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 31, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.3%

Win Probability (After): 90.3%

Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:57 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & Goal at WAKE 1) Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 38, WAKE 21 1.05 95.1% 3.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: WAKE 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.95 = 1.05

Score Difference (Before): 10 (15.95)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 38, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.1%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 31 (38) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:42 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 12) Sam Hartman pass intercepted for a TD Erick Hallett return for 19 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -6.06 1.8% -1.6%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 99

Started Drive at: WAKE 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - -0.94 = -6.06

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.94)

Score Difference (End): 24 (24.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 38 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 221 (Kickoff at PITT 35) Ivan Mora kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PITT 0, WAKE 0 0.00 62.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, WAKE 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.3%

Win Probability (After): 62.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:58 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 25) Vincent Davis run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30 - PITT 0, WAKE 0 0.04 67.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 1.06 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, WAKE 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.4%

Win Probability (After): 67.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:36 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 5 at PITT 30) Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 7 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST down - PITT 0, WAKE 0 0.76 68.6% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 63

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.01 - 1.25 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.25)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, WAKE 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.6%

Win Probability (After): 69.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:15 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 37) Kenny Pickett pass incomplete - PITT 0, WAKE 0 -0.67 68.5% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.30 - 1.97 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.97)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, WAKE 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.5%

Win Probability (After): 69.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:10 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 10 at PITT 37) Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 5 yds to the Pitt 42 - PITT 0, WAKE 0 -0.27 66.7% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 58

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 1.29 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.29)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, WAKE 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.7%

Win Probability (After): 66.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:42 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 5 at PITT 42) Kenny Pickett 58 Yd Run (Sam Scarton Kick) - PITT 7, WAKE 0 5.95 66.4% 14.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 99

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.05 = 5.95

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.05)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.4%

Win Probability (After): 80.9%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:42 ESPN team id 154 (Kickoff at WAKE 35) Ben Sauls kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PITT 7, WAKE 0 0.00 21.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.22 - -0.22 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.22)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.8%

Win Probability (After): 21.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:34 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 25) Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 5 yds to the WFrst 30 - PITT 7, WAKE 0 0.19 21.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - -0.22 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.22)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.8%

Win Probability (After): 21.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:18 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 5 at WAKE 30) Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 7 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Marquis Williams) to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, WAKE 0 2.05 21.9% 2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 48

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - 0.01 = 2.05

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.02)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.9%

Win Probability (After): 24.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:06 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at PITT 48) Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the Pitt 46 - PITT 7, WAKE 0 -0.48 24.2% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 46

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 2.04 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.96)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.2%

Win Probability (After): 24.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:43 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 8 at PITT 46) Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. Perry - PITT 7, WAKE 0 -1.01 22.7% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - 1.54 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.46)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.7%

Win Probability (After): 21.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:37 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 8 at PITT 46) Sam Hartman run for 9 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, WAKE 0 2.21 20.5% 3.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 37

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.73 - 0.52 = 2.21

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.48)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.5%

Win Probability (After): 24.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:22 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at PITT 37) Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the Pitt 35 - PITT 7, WAKE 0 -0.45 24.7% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 35

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 2.72 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.28)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.7%

Win Probability (After): 23.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:01 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 8 at PITT 35) Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 11 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, WAKE 0 1.50 24.7% 2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 24

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 2.29 = 1.50

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.71)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.7%

Win Probability (After): 26.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:47 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at PITT 24) Sam Hartman pass complete to Christian Beal-Smith for 6 yds to the Pitt 18 - PITT 7, WAKE 0 0.58 25.9% 3.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 18

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.33 - 3.75 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.25)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.9%

Win Probability (After): 29.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:28 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 4 at PITT 18) Christian Beal-Smith run for 6 yds to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, WAKE 0 0.42 28.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 12

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.79 - 4.37 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.63)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.8%

Win Probability (After): 28.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:11 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at PITT 12) Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the Pitt 10 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (John Morgan III) to the Pitt 5 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, WAKE 0 1.16 28.7% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 5

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.96 - 4.80 = 1.16

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.21)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-1.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.7%

Win Probability (After): 30.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:48 ESPN team id 154 (1st & Goal at PITT 5) A.T. Perry 5 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Nick Sciba Kick) - PITT 7, WAKE 7 1.27 29.2% 4.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.73 = 1.27

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.27)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.2%

Win Probability (After): 33.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:48 ESPN team id 221 (Kickoff at PITT 35) Ivan Mora kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PITT 7, WAKE 7 0.00 64.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 1.14 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.8%

Win Probability (After): 64.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:43 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 25) Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jared Wayne - PITT 7, WAKE 7 -0.64 64.8% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.50 - 1.14 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.8%

Win Probability (After): 63.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:35 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 10 at PITT 25) Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 18 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, WAKE 7 1.89 63.1% 4.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 57

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.41 - 0.53 = 1.89

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.1%

Win Probability (After): 67.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:04 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 43) Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 35 yds to the WFrst 22 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, WAKE 7 2.26 67.0% 4.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 22

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.67 - 2.41 = 2.26

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.41)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.0%

Win Probability (After): 71.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:37 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at WAKE 22) Rodney Hammond Jr. 22 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton Kick) - PITT 14, WAKE 7 2.28 71.1% 8.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.72 = 2.28

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.72)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.1%

Win Probability (After): 79.5%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:37 ESPN team id 154 (Kickoff at WAKE 35) Ben Sauls kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PITT 14, WAKE 7 0.00 20.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - -0.04 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.04)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.9%

Win Probability (After): 20.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:33 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 25) Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 9 yds to the WFrst 34 - PITT 14, WAKE 7 1.23 20.9% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.24 - 0.01 = 1.23

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.99)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.9%

Win Probability (After): 21.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:11 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 1 at WAKE 34) Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST down - PITT 14, WAKE 7 -0.21 22.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 63

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 1.29 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.71)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.1%

Win Probability (After): 22.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:56 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 37) Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the WFrst 39 - PITT 14, WAKE 7 -0.54 21.5% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 61

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.57 - 1.11 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.89)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.5%

Win Probability (After): 22.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:28 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 8 at WAKE 39) Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Perry, A.T., PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference (Mathis, Damarri) 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST. - PITT 14, WAKE 7 1.92 22.2% 1.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 46

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 0.47 = 1.92

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.53)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.2%

Win Probability (After): 23.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:25 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at PITT 46) Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii Roberson - PITT 14, WAKE 7 -0.63 25.1% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - 2.27 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.73)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.1%

Win Probability (After): 24.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:20 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 10 at PITT 46) Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. Perry - PITT 14, WAKE 7 -1.05 24.4% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 1.69 = -1.05

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.31)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.4%

Win Probability (After): 22.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:12 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 10 at PITT 46) Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 11 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST down - PITT 14, WAKE 7 2.39 21.7% 4.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 35

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.07 - 0.68 = 2.39

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.32)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.7%

Win Probability (After): 26.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:44 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at PITT 35) Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. Perry - PITT 14, WAKE 7 -0.64 26.4% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 3.04 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.96)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.4%

Win Probability (After): 24.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:37 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 10 at PITT 35) Sam Hartman run for 11 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST down - PITT 14, WAKE 7 1.42 24.6% 3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 24

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.83 - 2.41 = 1.42

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.59)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.6%

Win Probability (After): 28.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:21 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at PITT 24) Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 26 - PITT 14, WAKE 7 -1.13 27.8% -2.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 26

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.70 - 3.83 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.17)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.8%

Win Probability (After): 25.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:54 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 12 at PITT 26) Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 15 yds to the Pitt 11 for a 1ST down - PITT 14, WAKE 7 2.21 24.8% 5.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 11

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.91 - 2.70 = 2.21

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.30)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.8%

Win Probability (After): 30.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:37 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at PITT 11) Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donald Stewart - PITT 14, WAKE 7 -0.58 30.7% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 11

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 4.92 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.08)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.7%

Win Probability (After): 29.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:31 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 10 at PITT 11) Sam Hartman 11 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick) - PITT 14, WAKE 14 2.66 29.9% 5.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 99

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.34 = 2.66

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.66)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 14

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.9%

Win Probability (After): 34.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:31 ESPN team id 221 (Kickoff at PITT 35) Ivan Mora kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PITT 14, WAKE 14 0.00 65.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 1.08 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.1%

Win Probability (After): 65.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:26 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 25) Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 19 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST down - PITT 14, WAKE 14 1.41 65.1% 3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 56

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - 1.08 = 1.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.1%

Win Probability (After): 68.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:45 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 44) Vincent Davis run for 10 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST down - PITT 14, WAKE 14 0.71 66.4% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 46

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 2.48 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.48)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.4%

Win Probability (After): 69.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:25 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at WAKE 46) Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 15 yds to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST down - PITT 14, WAKE 14 0.89 67.5% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 31

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 3.19 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.5%

Win Probability (After): 68.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:56 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at WAKE 31) Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jaden Bradley - PITT 14, WAKE 14 -0.58 67.4% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 31

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.50 - 4.08 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.4%

Win Probability (After): 67.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:53 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 10 at WAKE 31) Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Vincent Davis - PITT 14, WAKE 14 -0.86 66.6% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 31

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.65 - 3.50 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.50)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.6%

Win Probability (After): 65.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:45 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 10 at WAKE 31) Kenny Pickett run for no gain to the WFrst 31 - PITT 14, WAKE 14 -1.46 65.3% -3.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 31

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.18 - 2.64 = -1.46

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.3%

Win Probability (After): 61.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:16 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 10 at WAKE 31) Sam Scarton 49 yd FG MISSED - PITT 14, WAKE 14 -2.92 61.5% -3.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 69

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.75 - 1.17 = -2.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.75)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.5%

Win Probability (After): 58.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:12 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 31) Christian Turner run for 1 yd to the WFrst 32 - PITT 14, WAKE 14 -0.81 43.0% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 68

Started Drive at: WAKE 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.93 - 1.74 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.74)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.0%

Win Probability (After): 40.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:49 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 9 at WAKE 32) Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 11 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST down - PITT 14, WAKE 14 1.42 40.7% 4.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 57

Started Drive at: WAKE 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 0.93 = 1.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.93)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.7%

Win Probability (After): 45.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:31 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 43) Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Morin, Taylor, PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference (Hallett, Erick) 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST. - PITT 14, WAKE 14 1.00 45.1% 1.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 42

Started Drive at: WAKE 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 2.33 = 1.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.33)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.1%

Win Probability (After): 46.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:24 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at PITT 42) Christian Turner run for 16 yds to the Pitt 26 for a 1ST down - PITT 14, WAKE 14 1.01 46.4% 1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 26

Started Drive at: WAKE 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 3.34 = 1.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.4%

Win Probability (After): 48.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:07 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at PITT 26) Taylor Morin 26 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Nick Sciba Kick) - PITT 14, WAKE 21 2.65 48.3% 8.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99

Started Drive at: WAKE 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.35 = 2.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.35)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.3%

Win Probability (After): 56.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:07 ESPN team id 221 (Kickoff at PITT 35) Ivan Mora kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PITT 14, WAKE 21 0.00 43.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - -0.05 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.05)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.3%

Win Probability (After): 43.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:00 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 25) Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 11 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST down - PITT 14, WAKE 21 1.00 43.3% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 64

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.97 - -0.03 = 1.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.03)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.3%

Win Probability (After): 44.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:41 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 36) Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 7 yds to the Pitt 43 - PITT 14, WAKE 21 0.56 44.2% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 57

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.55 - 0.98 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.02)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.2%

Win Probability (After): 45.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:17 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 3 at PITT 43) TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Pitt Kenny Pickett - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -2.34 45.7% -5.5%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 65

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.80 - 1.54 = -2.34

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.46)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.7%

Win Probability (After): 40.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:37 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 11 at PITT 35) Kenny Pickett sacked by Luiji Vilain for a loss of 13 yards to the Pitt 22 - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -2.34 39.8% -2.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 78

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.98 - -0.64 = -2.34

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.64)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.8%

Win Probability (After): 37.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:06 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 24 at PITT 22) PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Vincent Davis) to the Pitt 17 - PITT 14, WAKE 21 0.02 35.8% 1.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 83

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.87 - -2.89 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.89)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.8%

Win Probability (After): 37.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:41 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 29 at PITT 17) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 41 - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -0.28 36.0% -1.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 59

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.12 - -2.84 = -0.28

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.84)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.12)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.0%

Win Probability (After): 34.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:37 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 41) Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WFrst 44 - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -0.32 65.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 56

Started Drive at: WAKE 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.80 - 3.12 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.12)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.4%

Win Probability (After): 65.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:10 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 7 at WAKE 44) Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor Morin - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -0.92 65.5% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56

Started Drive at: WAKE 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 2.79 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.79)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.5%

Win Probability (After): 64.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:10 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 7 at WAKE 44) WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (A.T. Perry) to the WFrst 39 - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -0.64 64.1% -1.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 61

Started Drive at: WAKE 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.24 - 1.88 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.88)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.1%

Win Probability (After): 62.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:05 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 12 at WAKE 39) Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 14 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST down - PITT 14, WAKE 21 2.50 62.2% 4.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 47

Started Drive at: WAKE 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.74 - 1.24 = 2.50

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.24)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.2%

Win Probability (After): 66.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at PITT 47) Justice Ellison run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard line - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -1.20 64.5% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 50

Started Drive at: WAKE 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.52 - 3.72 = -1.20

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.72)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.5%

Win Probability (After): 63.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:28 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 13 at 50) Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. Perry - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -1.01 63.7% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: WAKE 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.51 - 2.52 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.52)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.7%

Win Probability (After): 61.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:23 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 13 at 50) Sam Hartman pass intercepted Marquis Williams return for no gain to the Pitt 36 - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -2.73 62.0% -7.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 64

Started Drive at: WAKE 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.18 - 1.55 = -2.73

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.55)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.82)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.0%

Win Probability (After): 55.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:17 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 36) Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan Addison - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -0.55 44.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: PITT 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.57 - 1.12 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.88)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.7%

Win Probability (After): 44.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:13 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 10 at PITT 36) Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the Pitt 40 - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -0.44 44.0% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 60

Started Drive at: PITT 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.16 - 0.60 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.40)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.0%

Win Probability (After): 42.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:43 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 6 at PITT 40) Pickett, Kenny pass sacked for loss of 3 yards to the PITTSBURGH37 (Vilain, Luiji), PENALTY WAKEFOREST holding (Keith, Zion) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH. - PITT 14, WAKE 21 1.88 42.8% 3.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 50

Started Drive at: PITT 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 0.15 = 1.88

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.85)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.8%

Win Probability (After): 46.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:31 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at 50) Israel Abanikanda run for 16 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST down - PITT 14, WAKE 21 1.21 46.8% 3.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 34

Started Drive at: PITT 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.26 - 2.05 = 1.21

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.95)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.8%

Win Probability (After): 50.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:08 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at WAKE 34) Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 5 yds to the WFrst 29 - PITT 14, WAKE 21 0.21 50.3% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 29

Started Drive at: PITT 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 3.25 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.75)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.3%

Win Probability (After): 51.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:43 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 5 at WAKE 29) Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the WFrst 25 - PITT 14, WAKE 21 0.05 50.4% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 25

Started Drive at: PITT 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.49 - 3.44 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.56)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.4%

Win Probability (After): 50.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:13 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 1 at WAKE 25) Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the WFrst 25 - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -1.02 50.8% -5.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: PITT 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - 3.51 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.49)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.8%

Win Probability (After): 45.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:27 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 1 at WAKE 25) Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan Addison - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -4.66 45.0% -8.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 75

Started Drive at: PITT 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.11 - 2.55 = -4.66

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.45)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.11)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.0%

Win Probability (After): 37.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:22 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 26) Sam Hartman sacked by Dayon Hayes for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 22 - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -1.16 64.5% -2.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 78

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 2.30 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.30)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.5%

Win Probability (After): 62.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:56 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 14 at WAKE 22) Hartman, Sam rush for 8 yards to the WAKEFOREST30, PENALTY WAKEFOREST holding (Maginn, Sean) 10 yards to the WAKEFOREST12, NO PLAY. - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -0.71 62.2% -1.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 88

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 1.09 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.09)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.2%

Win Probability (After): 60.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:36 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 24 at WAKE 12) Sam Hartman pass incomplete - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -0.85 61.0% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 88

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.51 - 0.34 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.0%

Win Probability (After): 59.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:33 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 24 at WAKE 12) Christian Beal-Smith run for 4 yds to the WFrst 16 - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -0.65 59.6% -2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 84

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.16 - -0.51 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.49)

Score Difference (End): 7 (5.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.6%

Win Probability (After): 56.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:42 ESPN team id 154 (4th & 20 at WAKE 16) Ivan Mora punt for 55 yds , Jordan Addison returns for 39 yds to the WFrst 32 - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -2.30 56.1% -6.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 32

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.59 - -1.29 = -2.30

Score Difference (Before): 7 (5.71)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.41)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.1%

Win Probability (After): 49.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:36 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at WAKE 32) Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the WFrst 29 - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -0.33 50.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 29

Started Drive at: WAKE 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.27 - 3.60 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.40)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.8%

Win Probability (After): 50.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:16 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 7 at WAKE 29) Jared Wayne pass complete to Lucas Krull for 20 yds to the WFrst 9 for a 1ST down - PITT 14, WAKE 21 1.88 47.5% 8.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 9

Started Drive at: WAKE 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.14 - 3.26 = 1.88

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.74)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-1.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.5%

Win Probability (After): 56.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:56 ESPN team id 221 (1st & Goal at WAKE 9) Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jared Wayne - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -0.66 52.8% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: WAKE 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 5.15 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.85)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.8%

Win Probability (After): 51.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:47 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & Goal at WAKE 9) Davis, Vincent rush for loss of 1 yard to the WAKEFOREST10, PENALTY WAKEFOREST offside 5 yards to the WAKEFOREST4, NO PLAY. - PITT 14, WAKE 21 0.91 51.5% 1.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 4

Started Drive at: WAKE 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.36 - 4.45 = 0.91

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.55)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-1.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.5%

Win Probability (After): 53.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:26 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & Goal at WAKE 4) Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan Addison - PITT 14, WAKE 21 -0.94 53.0% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: WAKE 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.35 - 5.29 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.71)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.0%

Win Probability (After): 51.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:21 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & Goal at WAKE 4) Jared Wayne 4 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton Kick) - PITT 21, WAKE 21 2.71 50.0% 7.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: WAKE 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.29 = 2.71

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.71)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.0%

Win Probability (After): 57.0%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:21 ESPN team id 154 (Kickoff at WAKE 35) Ben Sauls kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PITT 21, WAKE 21 0.00 40.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.11 - 1.11 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.5%

Win Probability (After): 40.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:17 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 25) Christian Turner run for 8 yds to the WFrst 33 - PITT 21, WAKE 21 0.47 40.8% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.65 - 1.18 = 0.47

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.8%

Win Probability (After): 42.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:01 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 2 at WAKE 33) Christian Turner run for 1 yd to the WFrst 34 - PITT 21, WAKE 21 -0.51 43.0% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 66

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.25 - 1.76 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.76)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.0%

Win Probability (After): 41.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:25 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 1 at WAKE 34) WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 29 - PITT 21, WAKE 21 -1.21 41.8% -5.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 71

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.09 - 1.30 = -1.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.30)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.8%

Win Probability (After): 36.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:02 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 6 at WAKE 29) Timeout PITTSBURGH, clock 07:02 - PITT 21, WAKE 21 0.00 36.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.09 - 0.09 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.09)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.7%

Win Probability (After): 36.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:58 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 6 at WAKE 29) Sam Hartman sacked by SirVocea Dennis for a loss of 8 yards to the WFrst 21 - PITT 21, WAKE 21 -2.08 38.4% -6.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 79

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.92 - 0.16 = -2.08

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.4%

Win Probability (After): 32.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:13 ESPN team id 154 (4th & 14 at WAKE 21) Ivan Mora punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 49 - PITT 21, WAKE 21 -0.84 31.4% 5.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 51

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.85 - -2.01 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.85)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.4%

Win Probability (After): 36.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 6:08 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 49) Jordan Addison run for 5 yds to the WFrst 46 - PITT 21, WAKE 21 0.34 64.1% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 46

Started Drive at: PITT 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.05 - 2.70 = 0.34

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.70)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.1%

Win Probability (After): 64.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:42 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 5 at WAKE 46) Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 49 - PITT 21, WAKE 21 -1.26 64.5% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 49

Started Drive at: PITT 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.52 - 2.78 = -1.26

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.5%

Win Probability (After): 62.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:05 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 8 at WAKE 49) Kenny Pickett sacked by Luiji Vilain for a loss of 11 yards to the Pitt 40 Kenny Pickett fumbled, forced by Luiji Vilain, recovered by Pitt Matt Goncalves , return for 0 yards - PITT 21, WAKE 21 -2.98 62.3% -9.0%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 60

Started Drive at: PITT 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.12 - 1.85 = -2.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.85)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.3%

Win Probability (After): 53.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:19 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 19 at PITT 40) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 17 - PITT 21, WAKE 21 -0.17 53.7% 1.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 83

Started Drive at: PITT 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.92 - -0.74 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.74)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.92)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.7%

Win Probability (After): 54.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 4:11 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 17) Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 33 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - PITT 21, WAKE 21 2.15 44.9% 5.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 50

Started Drive at: WAKE 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 0.72 = 2.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.9%

Win Probability (After): 50.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:00 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at 50) Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 5 yds to the Pitt 45 - PITT 21, WAKE 21 0.11 50.6% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 45

Started Drive at: WAKE 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.85 - 2.75 = 0.11

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.75)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.6%

Win Probability (After): 51.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:36 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 5 at PITT 45) Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii Roberson - PITT 21, WAKE 21 -0.60 51.3% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45

Started Drive at: WAKE 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.20 - 2.80 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.80)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.3%

Win Probability (After): 48.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:30 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 5 at PITT 45) Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 9 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, WAKE 21 1.44 48.9% 3.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 36

Started Drive at: WAKE 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 2.17 = 1.44

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.9%

Win Probability (After): 52.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:08 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at PITT 36) Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 41 - PITT 21, WAKE 21 -1.15 52.4% -3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 41

Started Drive at: WAKE 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.41 - 3.56 = -1.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.56)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.4%

Win Probability (After): 49.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:28 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 15 at PITT 41) Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the Pitt 38 - PITT 21, WAKE 21 -0.23 49.1% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 38

Started Drive at: WAKE 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.96 - 2.19 = -0.23

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.1%

Win Probability (After): 46.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:47 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 12 at PITT 38) Sam Hartman sacked by SirVocea Dennis for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 46 - PITT 21, WAKE 21 -1.76 47.2% -8.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 46

Started Drive at: WAKE 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 1.82 = -1.76

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.82)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.2%

Win Probability (After): 39.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:04 ESPN team id 154 (4th & 20 at PITT 46) Timeout WAKE FOREST, clock 01:04 - PITT 21, WAKE 21 0.00 38.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: WAKE 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 0.06 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.4%

Win Probability (After): 38.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:55 ESPN team id 154 (4th & 20 at PITT 46) Ivan Mora punt for 46 yds for a touchback - PITT 21, WAKE 21 -1.16 40.3% -0.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 80

Started Drive at: WAKE 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.87 - 0.29 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.29)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.87)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.3%

Win Probability (After): 39.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:50 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 20) Vincent Davis run for 10 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, WAKE 21 0.48 60.1% 2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 70

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.23 - 0.75 = 0.48

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.75)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.1%

Win Probability (After): 62.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:46 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 30) Vincent Davis run for 5 yds to the Pitt 35 - PITT 21, WAKE 21 0.22 62.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 65

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.30 - 1.08 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.4%

Win Probability (After): 62.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:22 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 5 at PITT 35) Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 32 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, WAKE 21 2.66 60.9% 8.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 33

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - 0.75 = 2.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.75)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.9%

Win Probability (After): 69.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:15 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at WAKE 33) Timeout PITTSBURGH, clock 00:15 - PITT 21, WAKE 21 0.00 69.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - 3.41 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.41)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.7%

Win Probability (After): 69.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:10 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at WAKE 33) Pickett, Kenny pass incomplete to Jacques-Louis, Shocky, PENALTY WAKEFOREST holding (Keith, Zion) 10 yards to the WAKEFOREST23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH. - PITT 21, WAKE 21 0.93 66.8% 2.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 23

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 2.41 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.41)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.8%

Win Probability (After): 69.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:05 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at WAKE 23) Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan Addison - PITT 21, WAKE 21 0.26 68.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.74 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.74)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.3%

Win Probability (After): 68.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 10 at WAKE 23) Sam Scarton 41 Yd Field Goal - PITT 24, WAKE 21 0.70 66.5% 8.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.30 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.30)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.5%

Win Probability (After): 74.5%

Away Score: 21 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 154 (Kickoff at WAKE 35) Ben Sauls kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PITT 24, WAKE 21 0.00 30.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 0.44 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.56)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.2%

Win Probability (After): 30.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:55 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 25) Christian Beal-Smith run for 8 yds to the WFrst 33 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 0.76 30.7% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 0.50 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.50)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.7%

Win Probability (After): 32.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:43 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 2 at WAKE 33) Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii Roberson - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.98 34.7% -4.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - 1.43 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.57)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.7%

Win Probability (After): 30.1%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:38 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 2 at WAKE 33) Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 4 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST down - PITT 24, WAKE 21 1.19 31.8% 4.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 63

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.65 - 0.46 = 1.19

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.54)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.8%

Win Probability (After): 36.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:17 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 37) Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii Roberson - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.65 35.5% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.98 - 1.63 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.37)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.5%

Win Probability (After): 34.1%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:14 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 10 at WAKE 37) Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. Perry - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.84 32.7% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.12 - 0.96 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.04)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.7%

Win Probability (After): 30.7%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:08 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 10 at WAKE 37) Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor Morin - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -1.54 31.0% -3.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.45 - 0.08 = -1.54

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.92)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.0%

Win Probability (After): 27.5%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:01 ESPN team id 154 (4th & 10 at WAKE 37) Ivan Mora punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 25 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.16 27.7% 0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 75

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.49 - -1.33 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.33)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.49)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.7%

Win Probability (After): 27.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 13:55 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 25) TEAM run for a loss of 16 yards to the Pitt 9 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Pitt Kenny Pickett - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -2.25 72.1% -4.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 91

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.79 - 1.46 = -2.25

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.46)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, -16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.1%

Win Probability (After): 67.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:17 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 26 at PITT 9) Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 12 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.63 67.4% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 88

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.40 - -0.76 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.24)

Score Difference (End): 3 (1.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.4%

Win Probability (After): 66.7%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:51 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 23 at PITT 12) Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 22 yds to the Pitt 34 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 1.29 66.1% 2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 66

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - -1.34 = 1.29

Score Difference (Before): 3 (1.66)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.1%

Win Probability (After): 68.6%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:19 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 1 at PITT 34) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 28 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.98 68.9% -4.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 72

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.01 - -0.03 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.97)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.99)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.9%

Win Probability (After): 64.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 12:15 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 28) Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the WFrst 32 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.16 35.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 68

Started Drive at: WAKE 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - 1.00 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.00)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.0%

Win Probability (After): 35.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:53 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 6 at WAKE 32) Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the WFrst 36 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 0.07 34.5% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 64

Started Drive at: WAKE 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - 0.85 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.15)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.5%

Win Probability (After): 35.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:33 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 2 at WAKE 36) Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 6 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST down - PITT 24, WAKE 21 0.95 34.7% 3.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 58

Started Drive at: WAKE 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.96 - 1.01 = 0.95

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.99)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.7%

Win Probability (After): 38.5%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:15 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 42) Sam Hartman pass incomplete - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.47 38.1% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: WAKE 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.45 - 1.92 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.08)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.1%

Win Probability (After): 36.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:09 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 10 at WAKE 42) Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii Roberson - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.91 36.0% -3.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: WAKE 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.39 - 1.30 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.70)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.0%

Win Probability (After): 32.6%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:02 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 10 at WAKE 42) Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the WFrst 44 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -1.55 32.6% -2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 56

Started Drive at: WAKE 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.14 - 0.41 = -1.55

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.59)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.6%

Win Probability (After): 29.7%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:29 ESPN team id 154 (4th & 8 at WAKE 44) Ivan Mora punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 20 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.21 29.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 80

Started Drive at: WAKE 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.22 - -1.01 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.01)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.22)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:25 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 20) Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the Pitt 22 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.53 72.7% -2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 78

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.72 - 1.25 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.25)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.7%

Win Probability (After): 70.1%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:01 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 8 at PITT 22) Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 10 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST down - PITT 24, WAKE 21 1.38 68.0% 5.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 68

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 0.69 = 1.38

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.69)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.0%

Win Probability (After): 73.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:36 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 32) Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 6 yds to the Pitt 38 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 0.28 72.1% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 62

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.31 - 2.03 = 0.28

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.03)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.1%

Win Probability (After): 72.4%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:13 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 4 at PITT 38) Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST down - PITT 24, WAKE 21 0.31 73.1% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 58

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.56 - 2.25 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.25)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.1%

Win Probability (After): 73.4%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:48 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 42) Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 6 yds to the Pitt 48 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 0.26 72.9% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 52

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.77 - 2.51 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.51)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.9%

Win Probability (After): 73.6%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:26 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 4 at PITT 48) Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.58 73.3% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 50

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 2.75 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.75)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.3%

Win Probability (After): 72.6%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:59 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 2 at 50) Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan Addison - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -1.86 72.2% -4.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.30 - 2.16 = -1.86

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.16)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.2%

Win Probability (After): 67.7%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:52 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 2 at 50) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 14 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.57 67.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 86

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.26 - 0.31 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.31)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.74)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.6%

Win Probability (After): 67.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:46 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 14) Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donald Stewart - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.68 32.1% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 86

Started Drive at: WAKE 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.43 - 0.25 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.75)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.1%

Win Probability (After): 30.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:41 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 10 at WAKE 14) Justice Ellison run for 2 yds to the WFrst 16 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.81 30.8% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 84

Started Drive at: WAKE 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.24 - -0.43 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.43)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.7%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:16 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 8 at WAKE 16) Sam Hartman sacked by Keyshon Camp for a loss of 12 yards to the WFrst 4 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -2.10 29.6% -5.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 96

Started Drive at: WAKE 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.32 - -1.22 = -2.10

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.22)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-6.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.6%

Win Probability (After): 24.1%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:33 ESPN team id 154 (4th & 20 at WAKE 4) Ivan Mora punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 45 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 0.46 21.7% 4.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 55

Started Drive at: WAKE 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.75 - -3.21 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-6.21)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.75)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.7%

Win Probability (After): 26.4%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:26 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 45) Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan Addison - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.62 73.5% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: PITT 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.10 - 2.72 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.72)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.5%

Win Probability (After): 72.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:20 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 10 at PITT 45) Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 45 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.92 72.8% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: PITT 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.17 - 2.09 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.09)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.8%

Win Probability (After): 70.5%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:54 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 10 at PITT 45) Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 12 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST down - PITT 24, WAKE 21 2.25 71.0% 3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 43

Started Drive at: PITT 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.42 - 1.17 = 2.25

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.17)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.0%

Win Probability (After): 74.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:34 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at WAKE 43) Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 9 yds to the WFrst 34 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 0.80 75.1% 3.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 34

Started Drive at: PITT 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.24 - 3.44 = 0.80

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.44)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.1%

Win Probability (After): 78.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:08 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 1 at WAKE 34) Vincent Davis run for no gain to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ryan Smenda Jr.) to the WFrst 19 for a 1ST down - PITT 24, WAKE 21 0.56 78.6% 1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 19

Started Drive at: PITT 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.80 - 4.24 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.24)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.6%

Win Probability (After): 80.4%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:41 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at WAKE 19) Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Lucas Krull - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.57 80.5% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: PITT 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.21 - 4.77 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.77)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.5%

Win Probability (After): 79.7%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:36 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 10 at WAKE 19) Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Lucas Krull - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.79 79.9% -2.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: PITT 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.42 - 4.20 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.20)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.9%

Win Probability (After): 77.1%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:36 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 10 at WAKE 19) PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 24 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.91 77.3% -3.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 24

Started Drive at: PITT 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.52 - 3.43 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.43)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.3%

Win Probability (After): 73.4%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:31 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 15 at WAKE 24) Kenny Pickett sacked by Chase Jones and Jasheen Davis for a loss of 14 yards to the WFrst 38 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -2.68 73.6% -4.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 38

Started Drive at: PITT 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.12 - 2.57 = -2.68

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.57)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.6%

Win Probability (After): 69.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:43 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 29 at WAKE 38) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 13 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.05 69.3% -1.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 87

Started Drive at: PITT 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.13 - -0.07 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.93)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.87)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.3%

Win Probability (After): 68.1%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:35 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 13) Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the WFrst 19 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 0.14 32.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 81

Started Drive at: WAKE 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.26 - 0.11 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.89)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.2%

Win Probability (After): 32.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:12 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 4 at WAKE 19) Sam Hartman pass complete to Quinton Cooley for 5 yds to the WFrst 24 for a 1ST down - PITT 24, WAKE 21 0.34 31.5% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 76

Started Drive at: WAKE 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.60 - 0.25 = 0.34

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.75)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.5%

Win Probability (After): 32.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:49 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 24) Sam Hartman run for no gain to the WFrst 24 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.63 32.6% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76

Started Drive at: WAKE 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.00 - 0.63 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.37)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.6%

Win Probability (After): 31.5%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:12 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 10 at WAKE 24) Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor Morin - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.99 32.2% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76

Started Drive at: WAKE 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.98 - 0.01 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.99)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.2%

Win Probability (After): 30.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:07 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 10 at WAKE 24) Sam Hartman pass intercepted Erick Hallett return for no gain to the WFrst 45 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -2.33 29.8% -7.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 45

Started Drive at: WAKE 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.32 - -0.99 = -2.33

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.99)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.32)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.8%

Win Probability (After): 22.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:07 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at WAKE 45) PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Matt Goncalves) to the 50 yard line - PITT 24, WAKE 21 -0.75 77.2% -2.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 50

Started Drive at: WAKE 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.56 - 3.30 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.30)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.2%

Win Probability (After): 74.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:00 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 15 at 50) Israel Abanikanda run for 13 yds to the WFrst 37 - PITT 24, WAKE 21 1.31 74.8% 3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 37

Started Drive at: WAKE 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.89 - 2.58 = 1.31

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.58)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.8%

Win Probability (After): 78.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:39 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 2 at WAKE 37) Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST down - PITT 24, WAKE 21 0.22 77.9% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 32

Started Drive at: WAKE 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.11 - 3.89 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.89)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.9%

Win Probability (After): 78.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:14 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at WAKE 32) Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 20 yds to the WFrst 12 for a 1ST down - PITT 24, WAKE 21 1.00 78.3% 1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 12

Started Drive at: WAKE 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.12 - 4.12 = 1.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.12)

Score Difference (End): 3 (8.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 24, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.3%

Win Probability (After): 79.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:47 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at WAKE 12) Israel Abanikanda run for 12 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 31, WAKE 21 1.88 81.3% 9.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: WAKE 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.12 = 1.88

Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.12)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 31, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.3%

Win Probability (After): 90.3%

Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:47 ESPN team id 154 (Kickoff at WAKE 35) Ben Sauls kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PITT 31, WAKE 21 0.00 12.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.23 - 0.23 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.77)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 31, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.8%

Win Probability (After): 12.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:41 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 25) Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the WFrst 27 - PITT 31, WAKE 21 -0.45 12.8% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.22 - 0.23 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.77)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 31, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.8%

Win Probability (After): 12.4%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:16 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 8 at WAKE 27) Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 17 yds to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST down - PITT 31, WAKE 21 1.99 12.3% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 56

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.76 - -0.22 = 1.99

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.22)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 31, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.3%

Win Probability (After): 14.5%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:03 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 44) Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 9 yds to the Pitt 47 - PITT 31, WAKE 21 1.00 14.2% 1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 47

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.75 - 1.75 = 1.00

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.25)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 31, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.2%

Win Probability (After): 16.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 1 at PITT 47) Christian Beal-Smith run for no gain to the Pitt 47 - PITT 31, WAKE 21 -0.74 15.8% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.98 - 2.72 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.28)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 31, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.8%

Win Probability (After): 14.0%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:29 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 1 at PITT 47) Taylor Morin run for 1 yd to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST down - PITT 31, WAKE 21 0.44 14.0% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 46

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 2.04 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.96)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 31, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.0%

Win Probability (After): 15.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:11 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at PITT 46) Sam Hartman pass incomplete - PITT 31, WAKE 21 -0.57 14.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 2.50 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.50)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 31, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.8%

Win Probability (After): 14.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:07 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 10 at PITT 46) Sam Hartman sacked by Habakkuk Baldonado for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 49 - PITT 31, WAKE 21 -1.58 14.2% -2.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 49

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.32 - 1.91 = -1.58

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.09)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 31, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.2%

Win Probability (After): 11.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:26 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 13 at PITT 49) Sam Hartman pass intercepted A.J. Woods return for 73 yds to the WFrst 3 - PITT 31, WAKE 21 -6.45 10.8% -5.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 3

Started Drive at: WAKE 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -6.22 - 0.23 = -6.45

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.77)

Score Difference (End): 10 (16.22)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 31, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 99 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.8%

Win Probability (After): 5.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:22 ESPN team id 221 (1st & Goal at WAKE 3) Kenny Pickett pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 2 yds to the WFrst 1 - PITT 31, WAKE 21 0.07 95.4% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 1

Started Drive at: WAKE 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.31 - 6.24 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): 10 (16.24)

Score Difference (End): 10 (16.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 31, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.4%

Win Probability (After): 95.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:43 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & Goal at WAKE 1) Kenny Pickett run for no gain to the WFrst 1 - PITT 31, WAKE 21 -0.31 95.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 1

Started Drive at: WAKE 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.99 - 6.29 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): 10 (16.29)

Score Difference (End): 10 (15.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 31, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.6%

Win Probability (After): 95.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:57 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & Goal at WAKE 1) Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 38, WAKE 21 1.05 95.1% 3.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: WAKE 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.95 = 1.05

Score Difference (Before): 10 (15.95)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 38, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.1%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 31 (38) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:57 ESPN team id 154 (Kickoff at WAKE 35) Ben Sauls kickoff for 64 yds , Taylor Morin return for 21 yds to the WAKEFOREST 44 WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyriq Hardimon) to the WFrst 12 - PITT 38, WAKE 21 -1.54 1.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 88

Started Drive at: WAKE 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.97 - -0.43 = -1.54

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-25.03)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-18.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 38, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.9%

Win Probability (After): 1.8%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:42 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 12) Sam Hartman pass intercepted for a TD Erick Hallett return for 19 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -6.06 1.8% -1.6%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 99

Started Drive at: WAKE 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - -0.94 = -6.06

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.94)

Score Difference (End): 24 (24.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 38 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:42 ESPN team id 154 (Kickoff at WAKE 35) Ben Sauls kickoff for 64 yds , Taylor Morin return for 32 yds to the WFrst 33 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -0.29 0.5% -0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 67

Started Drive at: WAKE 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.19 - -0.90 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-24.90)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-25.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:29 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 33) Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 7 yds to the WFrst 40 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 0.29 0.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 60

Started Drive at: WAKE 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.31 - 0.02 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-23.98)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-23.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:08 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 3 at WAKE 40) Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donald Stewart - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -0.99 0.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: WAKE 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.25 - 0.74 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-23.26)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-24.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:03 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 3 at WAKE 40) Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. Perry - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -1.43 0.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: WAKE 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.43 - 0.00 = -1.43

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-24.00)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-25.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:59 ESPN team id 154 (4th & 3 at WAKE 40) Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn Williams - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -2.49 0.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 40

Started Drive at: WAKE 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.95 - -1.46 = -2.49

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-25.46)

Score Difference (End): 24 (27.95)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:54 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at WAKE 40) Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the WFrst 36 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -0.28 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 36

Started Drive at: WAKE 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.65 - 3.93 = -0.28

Score Difference (Before): 24 (27.93)

Score Difference (End): 24 (27.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:14 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 6 at WAKE 36) Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the WFrst 34 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -0.25 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 34

Started Drive at: WAKE 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.32 - 3.57 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): 24 (27.57)

Score Difference (End): 24 (27.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:31 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 4 at WAKE 34) Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the WFrst 34 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -1.50 99.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: WAKE 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 3.37 = -1.50

Score Difference (Before): 24 (27.37)

Score Difference (End): 24 (25.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:44 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 4 at WAKE 34) PITTSBURGH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 39 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -0.58 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 39

Started Drive at: WAKE 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 1.69 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 24 (25.69)

Score Difference (End): 24 (25.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 8:09 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 9 at WAKE 39) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 37 yds, downed at the WFrst 2 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 0.77 99.9% -0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 98

Started Drive at: WAKE 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.45 - 0.68 = 0.77

Score Difference (Before): 24 (24.68)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-25.45)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 8:05 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 2) Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the WFrst 6 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 0.14 0.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 94

Started Drive at: WAKE 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.13 - -1.27 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-25.27)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-25.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:39 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 6 at WAKE 6) Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the WFrst 9 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -0.28 0.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 91

Started Drive at: WAKE 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.38 - -1.10 = -0.28

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-25.10)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-25.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:11 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 3 at WAKE 9) Quinton Cooley run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 7 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -1.13 0.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 93

Started Drive at: WAKE 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.45 - -1.31 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-25.31)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-26.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:27 ESPN team id 154 (4th & 5 at WAKE 7) Ivan Mora punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the Pitt 47 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -0.39 0.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 53

Started Drive at: WAKE 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.75 - -2.36 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-26.36)

Score Difference (End): 24 (26.75)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 6:22 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 47) Vincent Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 44 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -0.86 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 56

Started Drive at: PITT 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.65 - 2.51 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 24 (26.51)

Score Difference (End): 24 (25.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:38 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 13 at PITT 44) Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the Pitt 45 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -0.41 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 55

Started Drive at: PITT 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.92 - 1.32 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): 24 (25.32)

Score Difference (End): 24 (24.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:53 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 12 at PITT 45) Timeout PITTSBURGH, clock 04:53 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 0.00 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: PITT 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.92 - 0.92 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 24 (24.92)

Score Difference (End): 24 (24.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:47 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 12 at PITT 45) Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the Pitt 47 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -0.67 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 53

Started Drive at: PITT 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.08 - 0.75 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 24 (24.75)

Score Difference (End): 24 (24.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:56 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 10 at PITT 47) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 10 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 0.22 99.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 90

Started Drive at: PITT 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.30 - 0.08 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): 24 (24.08)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-24.30)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 3:51 ESPN team id 154 (1st & 10 at WAKE 10) Ahmani Marshall run for 5 yds to the WFrst 15 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 0.01 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 85

Started Drive at: WAKE 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.21 - -0.22 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-24.22)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-24.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:19 ESPN team id 154 (2nd & 5 at WAKE 15) Ahmani Marshall run for 2 yds to the WFrst 17 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -0.39 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 83

Started Drive at: WAKE 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.50 - -0.11 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-24.11)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-24.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:32 ESPN team id 154 (3rd & 3 at WAKE 17) Ahmani Marshall run for no gain to the WFrst 17 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -1.30 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 83

Started Drive at: WAKE 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.54 - -0.24 = -1.30

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-24.24)

Score Difference (End): -24 (-25.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:38 ESPN team id 154 (4th & 3 at WAKE 17) Ivan Mora punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Gavin Thomson at the Pitt 42 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -0.57 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 58

Started Drive at: WAKE 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.65 - -1.08 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -24 (-25.08)

Score Difference (End): 24 (25.65)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:36 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 42) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 40 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -0.57 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 60

Started Drive at: PITT 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 1.40 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 24 (25.40)

Score Difference (End): 24 (24.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:53 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 12 at PITT 40) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 38 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -0.22 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 62

Started Drive at: PITT 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.39 - 0.61 = -0.22

Score Difference (Before): 24 (24.61)

Score Difference (End): 24 (24.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:13 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 14 at PITT 38) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 37 - PITT 45, WAKE 21 -0.27 99.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 63

Started Drive at: PITT 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.09 - 0.18 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): 24 (24.18)

Score Difference (End): 24 (23.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 45, WAKE 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3