MTSU 31 @ Toledo 24

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 6.11 | Odds: TOL -10.5, O/U 50.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

Download Chart

Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 2393 ESPN team id 2649
Total Plays 9887
Total EPA 2.12-13.44
  Offensive EPA -2.211.96
  Special Teams EPA 1.35-9.68
  Penalty EPA 4.05-5.71
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA -1.07-0.01
Production ESPN team id 2393 ESPN team id 2649
Scrimmage Plays 8571
  Yards 482447
  Yards/Play 5.676.30
  EPA -2.211.96
  EPA/Play -0.030.03
Passes 43 (51%)40 (56%)
  Yards 276212
  Yards/Play 6.425.30
  EPA -4.71-10.49
  EPA/Play -0.11-0.26
Rushes 42 (49%)31 (44%)
  Yards 176239
  Yards/Play 4.197.71
  EPA 2.5012.45
  EPA/Play 0.060.40
Rushing ESPN team id 2393 ESPN team id 2649
Scrimmage Plays 8571
Rushes 42 (49%)31 (44%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 1 (2%)2 (6%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 1 (100%)2 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 13 (31%)5 (16%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 19 (45%)8 (26%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 19 (45%)20 (65%)
OL Line Yards 52.750.3
  Per Carry 1.251.62
Highlight Yards 57107.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 3.005.38
Explosiveness ESPN team id 2393 ESPN team id 2649
Total Plays 9887
Scrimmage Plays 8571
Explosive Plays 9 (11%)4 (6%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 5 (12%)2 (5%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 4 (10%)2 (6%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -29.06-15.27
  EPA/Play -0.38-0.23
  When Passing -21.61-20.00
    EPA/Play -0.50-0.50
  When Rushing -7.454.73
    EPA/Play -0.200.16
Situational ESPN team id 2393 ESPN team id 2649
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 36 (42%)27 (38%)
  When Passing 19 (44%)11 (28%)
  When Rushing 17 (40%)16 (52%)
  On Standard Downs 21 (37%)19 (48%)
  On Passing Downs 15 (54%)8 (26%)
  On Early Downs 28 (42%)21 (38%)
  On Late Downs 8 (44%)6 (38%)
  During "Middle 8" 10 (63%)0 (0%)
Early Downs 6755
  First Downs Created 15 (22%)13 (24%)
  EPA -1.912.96
  EPA/Play -0.030.05
  Passes 31 (46%)29 (53%)
  Rushes 36 (54%)26 (47%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 16 (52%)8 (28%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 12 (33%)13 (50%)
"Middle 8" Plays 168
  EPA -2.73-6.45
  EPA/play -0.17-0.81
  Passes 11 (69%)4 (50%)
  Rushes 5 (31%)4 (50%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 8 (73%)0 (0%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 2 (40%)0 (0%)
Drives ESPN team id 2393 ESPN team id 2649
Total 1514
Avg Starting Field Position Own 27Own 25
Plays/Drive 8.287.69
Yards/Drive 45.0141.03
Available Yards % 62%55%
Defensive ESPN team id 2393 ESPN team id 2649
Scrimmage Plays 7185
Stop Rate 39%40%
Havoc Plays Created 6 (8%)12 (14%)
  Passing 3 (8%)5 (12%)
  Rushing 3 (10%)7 (17%)
TFLs Generated 511
  Passing 24
  Rushing 37
Sacks Generated 1 (3%)2 (5%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 11
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 2393 ESPN team id 2649
Turnovers 11
  Fumbles 11
  Fumbles Lost 00
  Fumbles Recovered 11
  Interceptions 11
Turnover Margin 00
Expected Turnovers 1.21.2
Expected Turnover Margin 0.00.0
Turnover Luck (pts) 0.00.0
Special Teams ESPN team id 2393 ESPN team id 2649
Total Plays 13 16
Total EPA 1.35 -9.68
  Field Goal EPA -1.65 -5.82
  Punting EPA 2.65 -0.89
  Kickoff Return EPA 0.35 -2.97

Middle Tennessee [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Nick Vattiato 23/35, 270 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 2 Scks, 73.0 xQBR 7.30 0.16 5.75 49% 23.0%
Mike DiLiello 1/6, 6 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 0 Scks, 32.4 xQBR 1.00 -1.74 -10.46 17% -19.0%
Rush attempts
Mike DiLiello 4 carries, 44 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.00 1.50 5.99 100% 22.0%
Nick Vattiato 4 carries, 28 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.78 3.13 75% 7.0%
Frank Peasant 15 carries, 64 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.27 0.05 0.76 33% -7.0%
Brad Anderson 2 carries, 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.19 -0.38 0% -2.0%
Jaylin Lane 5 carries, 26 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.20 -0.11 -0.57 40% -8.0%
TEAM 2 carries, -8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -4.00 -0.34 -0.68 50% 2.0%
Amir Rasul 3 carries, 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.33 -0.57 -1.72 0% -2.0%
Martell Pettaway 7 carries, 13 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 1.86 -0.58 -4.03 29% -34.0%
Pass targets
pass complete Jarrin Pierce 4 catches (4 targets), 114 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 28.50 2.91 11.65 100% 28.0%
pass complete Jaylin Lane 5 catches (5 targets), 64 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.80 1.40 7.01 80% 23.0%
pass complete Izaiah Gathings 1 catch (1 target), 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 17.00 2.89 2.89 100% 7.0%
pass complete Yusuf Ali 9 catches (9 targets), 39 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.33 0.14 1.25 56% 7.0%
pass complete JaMichael Thompson 1 catch (1 target), 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 18.00 1.16 1.16 100% 5.0%
pass complete CJ Windham 2 catches (2 targets), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.50 0.38 0.76 50% 2.0%
pass complete Brad Anderson 1 catch (1 target), 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 0.29 0.29 100% 1.0%
Amir Rasul 1 catch (1 target), 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.13 0.13 100% 0.0%
JaMichael Thompson 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.98 -0.98 0% -2.0%
Jarrin Pierce 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.25 -2.51 0% -2.0%
Izaiah Gathings 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.28 -2.57 0% -4.0%
Jaylin Lane 0 catches (4 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.77 -3.09 0% -5.0%
Yusuf Ali 0 catches (3 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.12 -3.36 0% -11.0%
CJ Windham 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -2.14 -4.28 0% -11.0%

Toledo [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Dequan Finn 18/39, 212 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 1 Sck, 32.4 xQBR 5.30 -0.26 -10.49 28% -29.0%
Rush attempts
Dequan Finn 11 carries, 87 yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 7.91 0.55 6.06 36% 11.0%
Bryant Koback 18 carries, 126 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.24 4.28 56% 14.0%
DeMeer Blankumsee 1 carry, 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.00 1.25 1.25 100% 2.0%
Micah Kelly 1 carry, 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.00 0.85 0.85 100% 5.0%
Pass targets
Matt Landers 4 catches (9 targets), 137 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 34.25 0.57 5.12 44% 5.0%
DeMeer Blankumsee 3 catches (4 targets), 23 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.67 0.44 1.78 50% 0.0%
Thomas Zsiros 1 catch (1 target), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 0.18 0.18 100% 0.0%
Isaiah Winstead 4 catches (9 targets), 31 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.75 -0.15 -1.35 33% -1.0%
Jamal Turner 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.73 -1.73 0% -5.0%
Bryant Koback 1 catch (3 targets), 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.73 -2.19 0% -5.0%
Danzel McKinley-Lewis 2 catches (3 targets), 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.84 -2.52 0% -5.0%
Devin Maddox 3 catches (5 targets), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.67 -0.52 -2.62 20% -4.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 11:11 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 10) Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 90 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) - MTSU 7, TOL 14 6.78 67.3% 16.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.22 = 6.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.22)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.3%

Win Probability (After): 83.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:29 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 33) Mike DiLiello pass intercepted Samuel Womack return for 49 yds to the MTnSt 16 - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -6.52 38.1% -13.4%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 16

Started Drive at: MTSU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.68 - 1.84 = -6.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.84)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.68)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.1%

Win Probability (After): 24.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:52 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 1 at MTSU 40) Dequan Finn run for 40 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) - MTSU 7, TOL 7 5.72 58.1% 12.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.28 = 5.72

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.1%

Win Probability (After): 70.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 6:24 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 10 at MTSU 41) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 59 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) - MTSU 28, TOL 17 5.25 75.9% 18.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 99

Started Drive at: MTSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.75 = 5.25

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.75)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 28, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.9%

Win Probability (After): 94.0%

Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:38 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 9 at TOL 25) Dequan Finn pass intercepted Zaylin Wood return for no gain to the Toled 23 - MTSU 28, TOL 17 -4.39 7.2% -4.1%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 23

Started Drive at: TOL 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.49 - -0.10 = -4.39

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.10)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.49)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 28, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.2%

Win Probability (After): 3.1%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:45 ESPN team id 2393 (4th & 4 at TOL 32) Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to CJ Windham - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -3.51 30.3% -8.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 68

Started Drive at: TOL 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.10 - 1.41 = -3.51

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.59)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.10)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.3%

Win Probability (After): 21.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 5:50 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 9 at MTSU 17) Thomas Cluckey 35 yd FG MISSED - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -3.35 78.5% -10.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 80

Started Drive at: TOL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.79 - 2.56 = -3.35

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.56)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.79)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.5%

Win Probability (After): 68.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:49 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 15 at MTSU 28) Vattiato, Nick pass incomplete, PENALTY TOLEDO roughing passer (Hines, Jamal) 15 yards to the MIDDLETENN43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIDDLETENN. - MTSU 0, TOL 0 3.31 28.6% 8.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 57

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - -0.96 = 3.31

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.96)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.6%

Win Probability (After): 36.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:55 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 3 at MTSU 39) Nick Vattiato sacked by Nate Givhan for a loss of 11 yards to the MTnSt 28 - MTSU 7, TOL 7 -3.18 33.5% -8.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 72

Started Drive at: MTSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.80 - 1.37 = -3.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.5%

Win Probability (After): 24.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:53 ESPN team id 2393 (4th & 3 at TOL 40) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 4 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST down - MTSU 14, TOL 17 3.14 27.4% 11.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 36

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.52 - 0.38 = 3.14

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.62)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.4%

Win Probability (After): 38.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 13:25 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 32) Martell Pettaway run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 28 Martell Pettaway fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Martell Pettaway - MTSU 7, TOL 7 -2.38 51.5% -24.0%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 72

Started Drive at: MTSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 2.57 = -2.38

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.5%

Win Probability (After): 27.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 5 at TOL 17) Mike DiLiello run for 17 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) - MTSU 21, TOL 17 3.12 38.8% 18.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.88 = 3.12

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.88)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.8%

Win Probability (After): 56.9%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:24 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 10 at MTSU 41) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 59 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) - MTSU 28, TOL 17 5.25 75.9% 18.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 99

Started Drive at: MTSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.75 = 5.25

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.75)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 28, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.9%

Win Probability (After): 94.0%

Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:52 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 1 at TOL 35) TOLEDO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dequan Finn) to the Toled 20 - MTSU 7, TOL 0 -2.38 70.3% -17.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.64 - -0.25 = -2.38

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.25)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.3%

Win Probability (After): 52.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:11 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 10) Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 90 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) - MTSU 7, TOL 14 6.78 67.3% 16.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.22 = 6.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.22)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.3%

Win Probability (After): 83.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:29 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 33) Mike DiLiello pass intercepted Samuel Womack return for 49 yds to the MTnSt 16 - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -6.52 38.1% -13.4%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 16

Started Drive at: MTSU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.68 - 1.84 = -6.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.84)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.68)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.1%

Win Probability (After): 24.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:52 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 1 at MTSU 40) Dequan Finn run for 40 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) - MTSU 7, TOL 7 5.72 58.1% 12.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.28 = 5.72

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.1%

Win Probability (After): 70.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:04 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 6 at TOL 20) Zeke Rankin 37 yd FG MISSED - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -2.44 37.0% -11.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 80

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - 2.44 = -2.44

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.56)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.05)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.0%

Win Probability (After): 25.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:53 ESPN team id 2393 (4th & 3 at TOL 40) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 4 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST down - MTSU 14, TOL 17 3.14 27.4% 11.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 36

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.52 - 0.38 = 3.14

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.62)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.4%

Win Probability (After): 38.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 5:50 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 9 at MTSU 17) Thomas Cluckey 35 yd FG MISSED - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -3.35 78.5% -10.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 80

Started Drive at: TOL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.79 - 2.56 = -3.35

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.56)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.79)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.5%

Win Probability (After): 68.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 1:30 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & Goal at TOL 6) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 6 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) - MTSU 7, TOL 0 2.82 38.1% 7.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.18 = 2.82

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.18)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.1%

Win Probability (After): 45.6%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:52 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 1 at MTSU 40) Dequan Finn run for 40 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) - MTSU 7, TOL 7 5.72 58.1% 12.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.28 = 5.72

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.1%

Win Probability (After): 70.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:11 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 10) Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 90 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) - MTSU 7, TOL 14 6.78 67.3% 16.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.22 = 6.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.22)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.3%

Win Probability (After): 83.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:58 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & Goal at TOL 1) Frank Peasant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) - MTSU 14, TOL 14 0.63 24.2% 0.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.37 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-0.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.2%

Win Probability (After): 24.6%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:05 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 8 at MTSU 14) Thomas Cluckey 32 yd FG GOOD - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.31 70.9% 8.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: MTSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.69 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.69)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 5 at TOL 17) Mike DiLiello run for 17 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) - MTSU 21, TOL 17 3.12 38.8% 18.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.88 = 3.12

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.88)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.8%

Win Probability (After): 56.9%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:24 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 10 at MTSU 41) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 59 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) - MTSU 28, TOL 17 5.25 75.9% 18.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 99

Started Drive at: MTSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.75 = 5.25

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.75)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 28, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.9%

Win Probability (After): 94.0%

Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:34 ESPN team id 2393 (4th & 5 at TOL 18) Zeke Rankin 35 yd FG GOOD - MTSU 31, TOL 17 0.79 97.9% 0.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: TOL 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.21 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.21)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.9%

Win Probability (After): 98.8%

Away Score: 28 (31) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:08 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at MTSU 13) Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 13 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) - MTSU 31, TOL 24 2.73 2.4% 6.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.27 = 2.73

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.73)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 24

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 88 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.4%

Win Probability (After): 8.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 14:51 ESPN team id 2649 (Kickoff at TOL 35) Scott Payne kickoff for 63 yds , Jacquez Stuart return for 34 yds to the Toled 36 - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.28 79.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 64

Started Drive at: TOL 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - 1.08 = -0.28

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.8%

Win Probability (After): 79.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:45 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 36) Dequan Finn run for no gain to the Toled 36 - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.12 81.4% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: TOL 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.84 - 1.96 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.96)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.4%

Win Probability (After): 80.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:30 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 10 at TOL 36) Bryant Koback run for 12 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST down - MTSU 0, TOL 0 1.41 79.9% 2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 52

Started Drive at: TOL 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.70 - 1.30 = 1.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.30)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.9%

Win Probability (After): 82.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:20 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 48) Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah Winstead - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.68 79.6% 2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: TOL 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 2.71 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.71)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.6%

Win Probability (After): 81.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:56 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 10 at TOL 48) Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Matt Landers - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.99 79.9% -3.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: TOL 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 2.06 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.9%

Win Probability (After): 76.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:52 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 10 at TOL 48) Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Matt Landers - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -1.75 77.3% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: TOL 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.62 - 1.12 = -1.75

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.12)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.3%

Win Probability (After): 74.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:45 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 10 at TOL 48) Bailey Flint punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 10 - MTSU 0, TOL 0 0.52 74.5% -0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 90

Started Drive at: TOL 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.16 - -0.68 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.68)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.16)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.5%

Win Probability (After): 73.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 13:34 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 10) Jaylin Lane run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 21 for a 1ST down - MTSU 0, TOL 0 0.76 26.9% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 79

Started Drive at: MTSU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - 0.06 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 27.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:08 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 21) Frank Peasant run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST down - MTSU 0, TOL 0 0.93 27.7% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 69

Started Drive at: MTSU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.74 - 0.81 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.81)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.7%

Win Probability (After): 29.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:25 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 31) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 30 - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -1.33 28.0% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 70

Started Drive at: MTSU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.42 - 1.75 = -1.33

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.75)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.0%

Win Probability (After): 26.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:59 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 11 at MTSU 30) Jaylin Lane run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 34 - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.14 26.9% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 66

Started Drive at: MTSU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.49 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 25.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:37 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 7 at MTSU 34) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 3 yds to the MTnSt 37 - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.98 23.6% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 63

Started Drive at: MTSU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.65 - 0.32 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.32)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.6%

Win Probability (After): 25.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:54 ESPN team id 2393 (4th & 4 at MTSU 37) Kyle Ulbrich punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 22 - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.14 23.5% 2.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 78

Started Drive at: MTSU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.88 - -0.74 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.74)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.88)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.5%

Win Probability (After): 26.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:49 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 22) Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Matt Landers - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.76 73.8% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: TOL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 0.96 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.96)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.8%

Win Probability (After): 72.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:40 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 10 at TOL 22) Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 20 - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -1.55 72.3% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 80

Started Drive at: TOL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.25 - 0.29 = -1.55

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.29)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.3%

Win Probability (After): 70.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:06 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 12 at TOL 20) Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin Maddox - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.91 70.7% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80

Started Drive at: TOL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.14 - -1.24 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.24)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.7%

Win Probability (After): 68.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:53 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 12 at TOL 20) Bailey Flint punt for 52 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 8 yds to the MTnSt 36 - MTSU 0, TOL 0 0.04 69.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 64

Started Drive at: TOL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.03 - -2.06 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.03)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.2%

Win Probability (After): 69.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 9:39 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 36) Martell Pettaway run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 34 - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.96 29.5% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 66

Started Drive at: MTSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 2.02 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.5%

Win Probability (After): 28.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:15 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 12 at MTSU 34) Mike DiLiello pass incomplete to Yusuf Ali - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.94 26.9% -3.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: MTSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.09 - 0.85 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.85)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 23.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:10 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 12 at MTSU 34) Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Jaylin Lane - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -1.10 24.3% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: MTSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.20 - -0.10 = -1.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.3%

Win Probability (After): 22.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:00 ESPN team id 2393 (4th & 12 at MTSU 34) Kyle Ulbrich punt for 47 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 8 yds to the Toled 27 - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.26 23.2% 1.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 73

Started Drive at: MTSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.42 - -1.16 = -0.26

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.42)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.2%

Win Probability (After): 24.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:50 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 27) Bryant Koback run for 30 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST down - MTSU 0, TOL 0 2.01 73.7% 4.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 43

Started Drive at: TOL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.38 - 1.38 = 2.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.38)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.7%

Win Probability (After): 78.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:15 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at MTSU 43) Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 39 - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.12 78.4% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 39

Started Drive at: TOL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.23 - 3.34 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.4%

Win Probability (After): 77.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:50 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 6 at MTSU 39) Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 21 yds to the MTnSt 18 for a 1ST down - MTSU 0, TOL 0 1.65 82.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 18

Started Drive at: TOL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.87 - 3.22 = 1.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.22)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.0%

Win Probability (After): 81.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:17 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at MTSU 18) Bryant Koback run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 22 - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -1.31 81.9% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 22

Started Drive at: TOL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.56 - 4.88 = -1.31

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.88)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.9%

Win Probability (After): 82.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:47 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 14 at MTSU 22) Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 18 - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.14 80.1% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 18

Started Drive at: TOL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 3.58 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.58)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.1%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:16 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 10 at MTSU 18) Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 17 - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.89 79.6% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 17

Started Drive at: TOL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.56 - 3.44 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.44)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.6%

Win Probability (After): 78.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:50 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 9 at MTSU 17) Thomas Cluckey 35 yd FG MISSED - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -3.35 78.5% -10.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 80

Started Drive at: TOL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.79 - 2.56 = -3.35

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.56)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.79)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.5%

Win Probability (After): 68.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 5:38 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 20) Martell Pettaway run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 29 - MTSU 0, TOL 0 1.02 32.0% 2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 71

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.80 - 0.78 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.0%

Win Probability (After): 34.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:20 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 1 at MTSU 29) Nick Vattiato pass complete to CJ Windham for 4 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST down - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.03 35.5% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 67

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.79 - 1.82 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.82)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.5%

Win Probability (After): 34.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:02 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 33) Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to CJ Windham - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.77 36.0% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 1.79 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.79)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.0%

Win Probability (After): 33.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:55 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 10 at MTSU 33) Mike DiLiello pass incomplete - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.95 33.2% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.07 - 1.02 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.2%

Win Probability (After): 31.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:54 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 10 at MTSU 33) MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Martell Pettaway) to the MTnSt 28 - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -1.03 30.6% -2.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 72

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.96 - 0.07 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.6%

Win Probability (After): 28.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:49 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 15 at MTSU 28) Vattiato, Nick pass incomplete, PENALTY TOLEDO roughing passer (Hines, Jamal) 15 yards to the MIDDLETENN43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIDDLETENN. - MTSU 0, TOL 0 3.31 28.6% 8.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 57

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - -0.96 = 3.31

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.96)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.6%

Win Probability (After): 36.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:43 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 43) Mike DiLiello pass incomplete to Jaylin Lane - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.63 35.1% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.72 - 2.35 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.1%

Win Probability (After): 35.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:34 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 10 at MTSU 43) Nick Vattiato run for 10 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST down - MTSU 0, TOL 0 1.39 31.4% 4.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 47

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 1.72 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.4%

Win Probability (After): 35.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:20 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at TOL 47) Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Izaiah Gathings - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.69 31.4% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 3.11 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.4%

Win Probability (After): 32.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:08 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 10 at TOL 47) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 23 yds to the Toled 24 for a 1ST down - MTSU 0, TOL 0 1.97 30.6% 3.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 24

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.39 - 2.43 = 1.97

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.43)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.6%

Win Probability (After): 33.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:54 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at TOL 24) Amir Rasul run for 3 yds to the Toled 21 - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.10 33.6% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 21

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 4.39 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.39)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.6%

Win Probability (After): 34.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:23 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 7 at TOL 21) Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Jaylin Lane - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.80 35.0% -3.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.49 - 4.28 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.0%

Win Probability (After): 31.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:16 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 7 at TOL 21) Mike DiLiello run for 14 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST down - MTSU 0, TOL 0 2.14 32.9% 3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 7

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.63 - 3.49 = 2.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.9%

Win Probability (After): 36.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:50 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & Goal at TOL 7) Martell Pettaway run for no gain to the Toled 7 - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.64 40.4% -4.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 7

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.00 - 5.64 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.4%

Win Probability (After): 35.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:05 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & Goal at TOL 7) Martell Pettaway run for 1 yd to the Toled 6 - MTSU 0, TOL 0 -0.81 40.4% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 6

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.18 - 5.00 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.00)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 0, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.4%

Win Probability (After): 38.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:30 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & Goal at TOL 6) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 6 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) - MTSU 7, TOL 0 2.82 38.1% 7.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.18 = 2.82

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.18)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.1%

Win Probability (After): 45.6%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:30 ESPN team id 2649 (Kickoff at TOL 35) Scott Payne kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MTSU 7, TOL 0 0.00 52.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.15 - 0.15 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.85)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.0%

Win Probability (After): 52.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:22 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 25) DeMeer Blankumsee run for 15 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST down - MTSU 7, TOL 0 1.25 52.0% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 60

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.38 - 0.14 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.86)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.0%

Win Probability (After): 54.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:00 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 40) Micah Kelly run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST down - MTSU 7, TOL 0 0.85 51.2% 4.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 49

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.25 - 1.40 = 0.85

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.60)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.2%

Win Probability (After): 55.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:34 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at MTSU 49) TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Bryce Harris) to the Toled 46 - MTSU 7, TOL 0 -0.96 52.6% -2.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 54

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.32 - 2.28 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.72)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 50.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:05 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 15 at TOL 46) Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 6 yds to the MTnSt 48 - MTSU 7, TOL 0 0.35 49.0% 2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 48

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.67 - 1.31 = 0.35

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.69)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.0%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:51 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 9 at MTSU 48) Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 2 yds to the MTnSt 46 - MTSU 7, TOL 0 -0.83 56.1% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 46

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 1.69 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.31)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.1%

Win Probability (After): 53.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:03 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 7 at MTSU 46) Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 6 yds to the MTnSt 40 - MTSU 7, TOL 0 0.41 57.7% -3.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 40

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.30 - 0.90 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.10)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.7%

Win Probability (After): 54.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:52 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 1 at MTSU 40) Dequan Finn run for 40 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) - MTSU 7, TOL 7 5.72 58.1% 12.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.28 = 5.72

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.1%

Win Probability (After): 70.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:52 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 1 at TOL 35) TOLEDO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dequan Finn) to the Toled 20 - MTSU 7, TOL 0 -2.38 70.3% -17.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.64 - -0.25 = -2.38

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.25)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.3%

Win Probability (After): 52.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:44 ESPN team id 2393 (Kickoff at MTSU 20) Thomas Cluckey kickoff for 70 yds , Jaylin Lane return for 22 yds to the MTnSt 32 - MTSU 7, TOL 0 -0.58 45.5% -0.8%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 68

Started Drive at: MTSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 2.14 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.14)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.5%

Win Probability (After): 44.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:25 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 32) Martell Pettaway run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 28 Martell Pettaway fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Martell Pettaway - MTSU 7, TOL 7 -2.38 51.5% -24.0%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 72

Started Drive at: MTSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 2.57 = -2.38

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.5%

Win Probability (After): 27.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:59 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 14 at MTSU 28) Mike DiLiello pass complete to Amir Rasul for 6 yds to the MTnSt 34 - MTSU 7, TOL 7 0.13 32.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 66

Started Drive at: MTSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.41 - 0.28 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.8%

Win Probability (After): 33.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:27 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 8 at MTSU 34) DiLiello, Mike pass incomplete, PENALTY TOLEDO offside (Givhan, Nate) 5 yards to the MIDDLETENN39, NO PLAY. - MTSU 7, TOL 7 0.70 30.5% 4.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 61

Started Drive at: MTSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.25 - 0.55 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.55)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.5%

Win Probability (After): 34.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:55 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 3 at MTSU 39) Nick Vattiato sacked by Nate Givhan for a loss of 11 yards to the MTnSt 28 - MTSU 7, TOL 7 -3.18 33.5% -8.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 72

Started Drive at: MTSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.80 - 1.37 = -3.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.5%

Win Probability (After): 24.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:36 ESPN team id 2393 (4th & 14 at MTSU 28) MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 23 - MTSU 7, TOL 7 -0.20 24.9% -0.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 77

Started Drive at: MTSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.01 - -1.82 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.82)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.9%

Win Probability (After): 24.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:24 ESPN team id 2393 (4th & 19 at MTSU 23) Kyle Ulbrich punt for 38 yds for a 1ST down , Devin Maddox returns for no gain to the Toled 23 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (Jalynn Williams) to the Toled 21 for a 1ST down - MTSU 7, TOL 7 1.07 24.3% 7.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 79

Started Drive at: MTSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.94 - -2.01 = 1.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.94)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.3%

Win Probability (After): 31.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:24 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 21) TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (-11 Yards) to the Toled 10 for a 1ST down - MTSU 7, TOL 7 -0.78 68.1% -1.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 90

Started Drive at: TOL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - 1.01 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.1%

Win Probability (After): 66.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:11 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 10) Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 90 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) - MTSU 7, TOL 14 6.78 67.3% 16.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.22 = 6.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.22)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.3%

Win Probability (After): 83.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:11 ESPN team id 2393 (Kickoff at MTSU 35) Thomas Cluckey kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MTSU 7, TOL 14 0.00 16.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.42 - 0.42 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.58)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.5%

Win Probability (After): 16.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:04 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 25) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 24 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST down - MTSU 7, TOL 14 1.91 16.9% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 51

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 0.38 = 1.91

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.62)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.9%

Win Probability (After): 18.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:31 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 49) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 17 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST down - MTSU 7, TOL 14 0.99 18.7% 1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 34

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.40 - 2.41 = 0.99

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.59)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.7%

Win Probability (After): 20.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:21 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at TOL 34) Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Jaylin Lane - MTSU 7, TOL 14 -0.56 21.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 3.43 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.57)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.0%

Win Probability (After): 20.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:20 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 10 at TOL 34) MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Marcus Greer) to the Toled 39 - MTSU 7, TOL 14 -0.89 20.4% -2.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 39

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 2.88 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.12)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.4%

Win Probability (After): 18.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:04 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 15 at TOL 39) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 23 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST down - MTSU 7, TOL 14 2.79 17.2% 6.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 16

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.80 - 2.01 = 2.79

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.99)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.2%

Win Probability (After): 24.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:45 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at TOL 16) Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the Toled 13 - MTSU 7, TOL 14 -0.37 25.2% -2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 13

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.42 - 4.78 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.22)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.2%

Win Probability (After): 22.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:27 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 7 at TOL 13) MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Marcus Greer) to the Toled 18 - MTSU 7, TOL 14 -0.94 22.3% 0.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 18

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.46 - 4.39 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.61)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.3%

Win Probability (After): 22.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:18 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 12 at TOL 18) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 17 yds to the Toled 1 for a 1ST down - MTSU 7, TOL 14 2.89 18.0% 6.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 1

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.36 - 3.47 = 2.89

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.53)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-0.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 7, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.0%

Win Probability (After): 24.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:58 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & Goal at TOL 1) Frank Peasant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) - MTSU 14, TOL 14 0.63 24.2% 0.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.37 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-0.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.2%

Win Probability (After): 24.6%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:50 ESPN team id 2649 (Kickoff at TOL 35) Scott Payne kickoff for 63 yds , Jacquez Stuart return for 28 yds to the Toled 30 - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -0.66 69.0% 0.4%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 70

Started Drive at: TOL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.48 - 1.14 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.0%

Win Probability (After): 69.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:50 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 30) TOLEDO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Toled 25 - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -0.86 70.7% -2.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 75

Started Drive at: TOL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.73 - 1.60 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.60)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.7%

Win Probability (After): 68.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:39 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 15 at TOL 25) Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 29 - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -0.34 68.1% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: TOL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.42 - 0.76 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.76)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.1%

Win Probability (After): 67.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:24 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 11 at TOL 29) Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -0.90 67.2% -3.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: TOL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.57 - 0.34 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.2%

Win Probability (After): 63.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:18 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 11 at TOL 29) Dequan Finn pass incomplete to DeMeer Blankumsee - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -1.13 64.5% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: TOL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.64 - -0.51 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.51)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.5%

Win Probability (After): 61.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:07 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 11 at TOL 29) Bailey Flint punt for 54 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 3 yds to the MTnSt 20 - MTSU 14, TOL 14 0.63 61.6% 7.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 80

Started Drive at: TOL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.89 - -1.52 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.52)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.89)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.6%

Win Probability (After): 69.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 7:55 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 20) Nick Vattiato pass complete to CJ Windham for 11 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST down - MTSU 14, TOL 14 0.79 31.2% 2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 69

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.73 - 0.94 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.94)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.2%

Win Probability (After): 33.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:21 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 31) Brad Anderson run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 35 - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -0.24 34.7% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 65

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 1.80 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.80)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.7%

Win Probability (After): 33.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:53 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 6 at MTSU 35) Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 37 - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -0.59 33.4% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 63

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.11 - 1.70 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.70)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.4%

Win Probability (After): 32.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:21 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 4 at MTSU 37) Nick Vattiato sacked by Nate Givhan for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 29 - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -2.59 33.6% -8.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 71

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.51 - 1.08 = -2.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.6%

Win Probability (After): 25.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:52 ESPN team id 2393 (4th & 12 at MTSU 29) Kyle Ulbrich punt for 46 yds , Devin Maddox returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 21 Devin Maddox fumbled, recovered by Toled Devin Maddox - MTSU 14, TOL 14 0.46 25.6% 4.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 79

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.08 - -1.54 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.08)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.6%

Win Probability (After): 30.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:40 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 21) Bryant Koback run for 17 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST down - MTSU 14, TOL 14 1.25 69.0% 3.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 62

Started Drive at: TOL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.10 - 0.85 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.85)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.0%

Win Probability (After): 72.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:26 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 38) TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Vinny Sciury) to the Toled 33 - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -1.08 74.5% -5.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 67

Started Drive at: TOL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 2.16 = -1.08

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.5%

Win Probability (After): 69.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:56 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 15 at TOL 33) Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the Toled 37 - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -0.09 72.9% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 63

Started Drive at: TOL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 1.35 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.9%

Win Probability (After): 72.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:31 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 11 at TOL 37) Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 42 - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -0.09 71.5% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 58

Started Drive at: TOL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 1.30 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.30)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.5%

Win Probability (After): 72.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:57 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 6 at TOL 42) Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Matt Landers - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -1.71 69.4% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: TOL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.49 - 1.22 = -1.71

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.22)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.4%

Win Probability (After): 66.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:50 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 6 at TOL 42) Bailey Flint punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 13 - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -0.06 63.4% 5.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 87

Started Drive at: TOL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - -0.34 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.40)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.4%

Win Probability (After): 69.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 3:37 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 13) Frank Peasant run for no gain to the MTnSt 13 - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -0.49 32.5% -2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 87

Started Drive at: MTSU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.12 - 0.38 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.38)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.5%

Win Probability (After): 29.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:09 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 10 at MTSU 13) MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Steven Losoya III) to the MTnSt 8 - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -0.84 31.7% -3.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 92

Started Drive at: MTSU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.89 - -0.04 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.04)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.7%

Win Probability (After): 28.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:50 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 15 at MTSU 8) Frank Peasant run for 25 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST down - MTSU 14, TOL 14 2.15 31.6% 5.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 67

Started Drive at: MTSU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.65 - -0.50 = 2.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.50)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.6%

Win Probability (After): 37.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:29 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 33) Mike DiLiello pass intercepted Samuel Womack return for 49 yds to the MTnSt 16 - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -6.52 38.1% -13.4%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 16

Started Drive at: MTSU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.68 - 1.84 = -6.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.84)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.68)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.1%

Win Probability (After): 24.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:00 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at MTSU 16) Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 17 - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -0.83 75.5% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 17

Started Drive at: MTSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 4.62 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.5%

Win Probability (After): 73.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:40 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 11 at MTSU 17) Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 14 - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -0.13 73.9% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 14

Started Drive at: MTSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.53 - 3.66 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.66)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.9%

Win Probability (After): 72.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:08 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 8 at MTSU 14) Dequan Finn pass incomplete - MTSU 14, TOL 14 -0.81 74.0% -3.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: MTSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.68 - 3.49 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.0%

Win Probability (After): 70.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:05 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 8 at MTSU 14) Thomas Cluckey 32 yd FG GOOD - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.31 70.9% 8.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: MTSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.69 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.69)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:05 ESPN team id 2393 (Kickoff at MTSU 35) Thomas Cluckey kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.00 28.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.62 - 0.62 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.38)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.2%

Win Probability (After): 28.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:50 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 25) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.00 28.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - 0.45 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.55)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.1%

Win Probability (After): 27.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:30 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 9 at MTSU 26) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 14 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST down - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.71 28.8% 1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 60

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.04 - 0.33 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.67)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.8%

Win Probability (After): 30.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:24 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 40) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Brad Anderson for 3 yds to the MTnSt 43 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.29 30.1% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 57

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - 0.51 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.49)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.1%

Win Probability (After): 30.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:22 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 7 at MTSU 43) Timeout MIDDLE TENN, clock 00:22 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.00 30.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - 0.80 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.20)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.4%

Win Probability (After): 30.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:17 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 7 at MTSU 43) Nick Vattiato pass complete to JaMichael Thompson for 18 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST down - MTSU 14, TOL 17 1.16 29.4% 5.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 39

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.65 - 0.49 = 1.16

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.51)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.4%

Win Probability (After): 34.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:16 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at TOL 39) Timeout MIDDLE TENN, clock 00:16 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.00 34.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.65 - 1.65 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.35)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.7%

Win Probability (After): 34.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:11 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at TOL 39) Vattiato, Nick pass incomplete to Pierce, Jarrin, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (McDonald, Chris) 15 yards to the TOLEDO24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIDDLETENN. - MTSU 14, TOL 17 1.89 33.5% 4.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 24

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 1.10 = 1.89

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.90)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.5%

Win Probability (After): 37.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:08 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at TOL 24) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 4 yds to the Toled 20 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.69 36.4% 2.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 20

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.96 - 2.27 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.73)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.4%

Win Probability (After): 39.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:04 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 6 at TOL 20) Nick Vattiato pass incomplete - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.17 38.2% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 2.46 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.54)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.2%

Win Probability (After): 37.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:04 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 6 at TOL 20) Timeout MIDDLE TENN, clock 00:04 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.00 37.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 2.63 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.37)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.8%

Win Probability (After): 37.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:04 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 6 at TOL 20) Zeke Rankin 37 yd FG MISSED - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -2.44 37.0% -11.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 80

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - 2.44 = -2.44

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.56)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.05)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.0%

Win Probability (After): 25.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2393 (Kickoff at MTSU 35) Thomas Cluckey kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.00 25.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 0.44 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.56)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.4%

Win Probability (After): 25.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:44 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 25) Jaylin Lane run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST down - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.84 27.7% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 0.63 = 0.84

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.37)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.7%

Win Probability (After): 27.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:10 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 35) Frank Peasant run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 34 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -1.06 29.2% -3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 66

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 1.62 = -1.06

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.38)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.2%

Win Probability (After): 26.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:04 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 11 at MTSU 34) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 19 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST down - MTSU 14, TOL 17 2.25 25.8% 6.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 47

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.83 - 0.58 = 2.25

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.42)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.8%

Win Probability (After): 32.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:33 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at TOL 47) Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the Toled 46 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -0.53 32.7% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 46

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.30 - 2.83 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.17)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.7%

Win Probability (After): 30.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:15 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 9 at TOL 46) Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to JaMichael Thompson - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -0.98 31.1% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 2.24 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.76)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.1%

Win Probability (After): 28.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:07 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 9 at TOL 46) Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Izaiah Gathings - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -1.88 28.8% -4.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.64 - 1.25 = -1.88

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.75)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.8%

Win Probability (After): 24.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:59 ESPN team id 2393 (4th & 9 at TOL 46) Kyle Ulbrich punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 2 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 1.07 24.1% 2.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 98

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - -0.63 = 1.07

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.63)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.56)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.1%

Win Probability (After): 26.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 12:52 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 2) Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 4 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -0.53 74.8% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 96

Started Drive at: TOL 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.66 - -0.13 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.87)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.8%

Win Probability (After): 74.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:28 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 8 at TOL 4) Finn, Dequan pass incomplete, PENALTY MIDDLETENN holding 10 yards to the TOLEDO14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO. - MTSU 14, TOL 17 1.59 73.2% 2.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 86

Started Drive at: TOL 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.94 - -0.65 = 1.59

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.35)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.2%

Win Probability (After): 75.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:00 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 14) TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Tyler Long) to the Toled 9 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -0.88 75.2% -1.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 91

Started Drive at: TOL 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.09 - 0.97 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.97)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.2%

Win Probability (After): 73.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:50 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 15 at TOL 9) Dequan Finn run for no gain to the Toled 9 Dequan Finn fumbled, recovered by Toled Dequan Finn - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -0.63 74.2% -1.1%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 91

Started Drive at: TOL 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.64 - -0.02 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.98)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.2%

Win Probability (After): 73.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:41 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 15 at TOL 9) Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Bryant Koback - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -0.90 73.0% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 91

Started Drive at: TOL 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.71 - -0.81 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.19)

Score Difference (End): 3 (1.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.0%

Win Probability (After): 71.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:39 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 15 at TOL 9) Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Bryant Koback - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -0.92 71.2% -3.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 91

Started Drive at: TOL 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.63 - -1.71 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): 3 (1.29)

Score Difference (End): 3 (0.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.2%

Win Probability (After): 68.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:24 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 15 at TOL 9) Bailey Flint punt for 43 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 14 yds to the Toled 38 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -0.81 68.2% -5.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 38

Started Drive at: TOL 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.39 - -2.58 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 3 (0.42)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.39)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.2%

Win Probability (After): 62.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 11:11 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at TOL 38) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 6 yds to the Toled 32 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.47 36.9% 2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 32

Started Drive at: TOL 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.80 - 3.33 = 0.47

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.33)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.9%

Win Probability (After): 39.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:54 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 4 at TOL 32) Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Yusuf Ali - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -0.85 38.0% -3.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 32

Started Drive at: TOL 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.93 - 3.78 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.78)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.0%

Win Probability (After): 34.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:51 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 4 at TOL 32) Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Yusuf Ali - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -1.58 33.9% -3.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 32

Started Drive at: TOL 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.40 - 2.97 = -1.58

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.03)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.9%

Win Probability (After): 30.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:45 ESPN team id 2393 (4th & 4 at TOL 32) Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to CJ Windham - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -3.51 30.3% -8.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 68

Started Drive at: TOL 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.10 - 1.41 = -3.51

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.59)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.10)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.3%

Win Probability (After): 21.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:23 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 32) Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the Toled 41 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.76 78.5% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 59

Started Drive at: TOL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.89 - 2.14 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.14)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.5%

Win Probability (After): 79.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:13 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 1 at TOL 41) Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST down - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.02 79.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 54

Started Drive at: TOL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.94 - 2.92 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.92)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.8%

Win Probability (After): 79.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:51 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 46) Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 45 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -1.01 80.1% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 55

Started Drive at: TOL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.91 - 2.91 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.91)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.1%

Win Probability (After): 78.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:20 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 11 at TOL 45) Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 10 yds to the MTnSt 45 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 1.09 79.7% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 45

Started Drive at: TOL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.93 - 1.84 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.84)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.7%

Win Probability (After): 80.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:47 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 1 at MTSU 45) Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST down - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.65 81.2% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 43

Started Drive at: TOL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.46 - 2.81 = 0.65

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.81)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.2%

Win Probability (After): 82.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:11 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at MTSU 43) Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 35 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.62 80.8% 2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 35

Started Drive at: TOL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.06 - 3.43 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.43)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.8%

Win Probability (After): 82.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:52 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 2 at MTSU 35) Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST down - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.07 81.6% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 32

Started Drive at: TOL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.10 - 4.03 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.03)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.6%

Win Probability (After): 82.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:17 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at MTSU 32) Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah Winstead - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -0.60 82.2% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 32

Started Drive at: TOL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.50 - 4.11 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.11)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:04 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 10 at MTSU 32) Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 3 yds to the MTnSt 29 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -0.68 78.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 29

Started Drive at: TOL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.88 - 3.56 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.56)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.2%

Win Probability (After): 78.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:32 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 7 at MTSU 29) Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 4 yds to the MTnSt 25 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -0.79 75.1% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 25

Started Drive at: TOL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.06 - 2.85 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.85)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.1%

Win Probability (After): 76.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:54 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 3 at MTSU 25) Thomas Cluckey 43 yd FG MISSED - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -2.78 77.5% -2.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 75

Started Drive at: TOL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.74 - 2.03 = -2.78

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.03)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.26)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.5%

Win Probability (After): 74.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 5:30 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 25) Amir Rasul run for no gain to the MTnSt 25 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -0.58 24.9% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.15 - 0.72 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.28)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.9%

Win Probability (After): 24.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:19 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 10 at MTSU 25) Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Jarrin Pierce - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -0.96 24.4% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.82 - 0.14 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.86)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.4%

Win Probability (After): 22.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:09 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 10 at MTSU 25) Nick Vattiato run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST down - MTSU 14, TOL 17 2.53 22.7% 5.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 63

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.71 - -0.82 = 2.53

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.82)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.7%

Win Probability (After): 28.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:54 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 37) MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Lance Robinson) to the MTnSt 32 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -0.72 28.6% -3.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 68

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.98 - 1.71 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.29)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.6%

Win Probability (After): 25.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:27 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 15 at MTSU 32) Mike DiLiello run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 38 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.20 25.3% 1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 62

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.18 - 0.98 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.02)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.3%

Win Probability (After): 27.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:52 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 9 at MTSU 38) Vattiato, Nick pass sacked for loss of 9 yards to the MIDDLETENN29 (Hines, Jamal), fumble by Vattiato, Nick recovered by MIDDLETENN at MIDDLETENN29, PENALTY TOLEDO personal foul (Hines, Jamal) 15 yards to the TOLEDO47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIDDLETENN. - MTSU 14, TOL 17 1.70 29.3% 2.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 47

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 1.17 = 1.70

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.83)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.3%

Win Probability (After): 32.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:33 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at TOL 47) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard line - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -1.38 36.1% -6.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 50

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 2.85 = -1.38

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.15)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.1%

Win Probability (After): 29.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:48 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 13 at 50) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for no gain to the 50 yard line - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -1.01 29.3% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - 1.47 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.53)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.3%

Win Probability (After): 26.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:17 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 13 at 50) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 10 yds to the Toled 40 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -0.08 26.1% 1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 40

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 0.46 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.54)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.1%

Win Probability (After): 27.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:53 ESPN team id 2393 (4th & 3 at TOL 40) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 4 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST down - MTSU 14, TOL 17 3.14 27.4% 11.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 36

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.52 - 0.38 = 3.14

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.62)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.4%

Win Probability (After): 38.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:40 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at TOL 36) Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the Toled 33 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -0.12 39.8% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 33

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.42 - 3.54 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.54)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.8%

Win Probability (After): 38.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:15 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 7 at TOL 33) Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the Toled 29 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -0.18 38.1% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 29

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.26 - 3.44 = -0.18

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.44)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.1%

Win Probability (After): 37.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:08 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 3 at TOL 29) Frank Peasant run for 7 yds to the Toled 22 for a 1ST down - MTSU 14, TOL 17 1.23 37.9% 5.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 22

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.50 - 3.27 = 1.23

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.27)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.9%

Win Probability (After): 43.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:24 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at TOL 22) Brad Anderson run for 4 yds to the Toled 18 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -0.14 43.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 18

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.35 - 4.50 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.50)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.0%

Win Probability (After): 42.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:04 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 6 at TOL 18) Timeout TOLEDO, clock 00:04 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 0.00 43.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.35 - 4.35 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.35)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:01 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 6 at TOL 18) Jaylin Lane run for 1 yd to the Toled 17 - MTSU 14, TOL 17 -0.41 43.1% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 17

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.91 - 4.32 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.32)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 14, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.1%

Win Probability (After): 41.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 5 at TOL 17) Mike DiLiello run for 17 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) - MTSU 21, TOL 17 3.12 38.8% 18.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99

Started Drive at: MTSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.88 = 3.12

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.88)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.8%

Win Probability (After): 56.9%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 2649 (Kickoff at TOL 35) Scott Payne kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MTSU 21, TOL 17 0.00 48.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.81 - 0.81 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.19)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.8%

Win Probability (After): 48.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:30 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 25) Bryant Koback run for 23 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST down - MTSU 21, TOL 17 1.69 48.9% 3.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 52

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 0.79 = 1.69

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.21)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.9%

Win Probability (After): 52.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:12 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 48) Dequan Finn pass incomplete - MTSU 21, TOL 17 -0.52 51.9% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.88 - 2.41 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.59)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.9%

Win Probability (After): 50.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:07 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 10 at TOL 48) Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Matt Landers - MTSU 21, TOL 17 -0.85 50.2% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - 1.84 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.16)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.2%

Win Probability (After): 48.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:02 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 10 at TOL 48) Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jamal Turner - MTSU 21, TOL 17 -1.73 48.5% -4.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.75 - 0.97 = -1.73

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.03)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 43.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:56 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 10 at TOL 48) Bailey Flint punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 20 - MTSU 21, TOL 17 -0.55 43.8% -3.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 80

Started Drive at: TOL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.32 - -0.77 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.77)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.32)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.8%

Win Probability (After): 40.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 13:45 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 20) Nick Vattiato run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 25 - MTSU 21, TOL 17 0.01 58.9% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 75

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.33 - 1.32 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.32)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.9%

Win Probability (After): 59.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:16 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 5 at MTSU 25) Nick Vattiato run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26 - MTSU 21, TOL 17 -0.81 60.2% -3.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 1.37 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.37)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.2%

Win Probability (After): 56.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:30 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 4 at MTSU 26) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 8 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST down - MTSU 21, TOL 17 1.70 58.7% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 66

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 0.59 = 1.70

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.59)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.7%

Win Probability (After): 60.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:10 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 34) Martell Pettaway run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 43 - MTSU 21, TOL 17 0.66 63.5% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 57

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.93 - 2.28 = 0.66

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.28)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.5%

Win Probability (After): 64.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:52 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 1 at MTSU 43) Martell Pettaway run for no gain to the MTnSt 43 - MTSU 21, TOL 17 -0.92 68.2% -5.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 3.09 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.09)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.2%

Win Probability (After): 62.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:27 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 1 at MTSU 43) Frank Peasant run for 8 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST down - MTSU 21, TOL 17 1.09 66.6% 2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 49

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.31 - 2.22 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.22)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.6%

Win Probability (After): 68.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:11 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at TOL 49) Frank Peasant run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 49 - MTSU 21, TOL 17 -1.09 69.5% -2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 51

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.06 - 3.16 = -1.09

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.16)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.5%

Win Probability (After): 66.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:32 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 12 at MTSU 49) Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the Toled 48 - MTSU 21, TOL 17 -0.32 67.5% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 48

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.72 - 2.04 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.04)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.5%

Win Probability (After): 65.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:00 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 9 at TOL 48) Jaylin Lane run for no gain to the Toled 48 - MTSU 21, TOL 17 -1.63 67.2% -4.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 1.76 = -1.63

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.76)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.2%

Win Probability (After): 62.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:15 ESPN team id 2393 (4th & 9 at TOL 48) Kyle Ulbrich punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 5 - MTSU 21, TOL 17 0.44 62.1% -3.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 95

Started Drive at: MTSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.26 - -0.18 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.82)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.26)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.1%

Win Probability (After): 59.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:04 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 5) Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the Toled 12 - MTSU 21, TOL 17 0.25 40.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 95 -> 88

Started Drive at: TOL 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - -0.30 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.30)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.4%

Win Probability (After): 40.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:40 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 3 at TOL 12) Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST down - MTSU 21, TOL 17 0.66 40.5% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 81

Started Drive at: TOL 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - -0.08 = 0.66

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.08)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.5%

Win Probability (After): 41.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:04 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 19) Dequan Finn pass incomplete - MTSU 21, TOL 17 -0.67 44.0% -4.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 81

Started Drive at: TOL 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.09 - 0.57 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.43)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.0%

Win Probability (After): 40.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:59 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 10 at TOL 19) Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah Winstead - MTSU 21, TOL 17 -0.87 42.1% -6.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 81

Started Drive at: TOL 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.91 - -0.05 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.05)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.1%

Win Probability (After): 35.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:45 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 10 at TOL 19) Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the Toled 27 - MTSU 21, TOL 17 -0.62 31.4% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 73

Started Drive at: TOL 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.55 - -0.92 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.92)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-5.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.4%

Win Probability (After): 32.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:09 ESPN team id 2649 (4th & 2 at TOL 27) Bailey Flint punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 41 - MTSU 21, TOL 17 -0.66 25.6% 0.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 59

Started Drive at: TOL 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.27 - -1.61 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-5.61)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.27)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.6%

Win Probability (After): 25.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 6:55 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at MTSU 41) Frank Peasant run for no gain to the MTnSt 41 - MTSU 21, TOL 17 -0.51 76.5% -3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59

Started Drive at: MTSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 2.34 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.34)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 21, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.5%

Win Probability (After): 73.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:24 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 10 at MTSU 41) Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 59 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) - MTSU 28, TOL 17 5.25 75.9% 18.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 99

Started Drive at: MTSU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.75 = 5.25

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.75)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 28, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.9%

Win Probability (After): 94.0%

Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:16 ESPN team id 2649 (Kickoff at TOL 35) Scott Payne kickoff for 62 yds , Jacquez Stuart return for 21 yds to the Toled 24 - MTSU 28, TOL 17 -1.00 9.3% -1.3%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 76

Started Drive at: TOL 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.55 - 0.45 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.55)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 28, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.3%

Win Probability (After): 8.0%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:08 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 24) Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryant Koback for 1 yd to the Toled 25 - MTSU 28, TOL 17 -0.37 8.9% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 75

Started Drive at: TOL 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.31 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.69)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 28, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.9%

Win Probability (After): 8.6%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:38 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 9 at TOL 25) Dequan Finn pass intercepted Zaylin Wood return for no gain to the Toled 23 - MTSU 28, TOL 17 -4.39 7.2% -4.1%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 23

Started Drive at: TOL 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.49 - -0.10 = -4.39

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.10)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.49)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MTSU 28, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.2%

Win Probability (After): 3.1%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:28 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at TOL 23) Amir Rasul run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 25 - MTSU 28, TOL 17 -1.05 98.3% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 25

Started Drive at: TOL 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 4.38 = -1.05

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.38)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 28, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.3%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:46 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 12 at TOL 25) Mike DiLiello run for 7 yds to the Toled 18 - MTSU 28, TOL 17 0.53 98.3% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 18

Started Drive at: TOL 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.75 - 3.22 = 0.53

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.22)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 28, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.3%

Win Probability (After): 97.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:43 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 5 at TOL 18) Timeout TOLEDO, clock 04:43 - MTSU 28, TOL 17 0.00 98.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: TOL 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.75 - 3.75 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.75)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 28, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:37 ESPN team id 2393 (3rd & 5 at TOL 18) Mike DiLiello pass incomplete to Jarrin Pierce - MTSU 28, TOL 17 -1.55 98.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: TOL 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.14 - 3.69 = -1.55

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.69)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 28, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.1%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:34 ESPN team id 2393 (4th & 5 at TOL 18) Zeke Rankin 35 yd FG GOOD - MTSU 31, TOL 17 0.79 97.9% 0.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: TOL 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.21 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.21)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.9%

Win Probability (After): 98.8%

Away Score: 28 (31) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:27 ESPN team id 2649 (Kickoff at TOL 35) Scott Payne kickoff for 64 yds , Jacquez Stuart return for 16 yds to the Toled 17 - MTSU 31, TOL 17 -1.02 3.9% -0.6%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 83

Started Drive at: TOL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.73 - 0.29 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.71)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.9%

Win Probability (After): 3.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:15 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 17) Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the Toled 20 - MTSU 31, TOL 17 -0.33 3.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 80

Started Drive at: TOL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.37 - -0.04 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.04)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.3%

Win Probability (After): 3.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:39 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 7 at TOL 20) Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 3 yds to the Toled 23 - MTSU 31, TOL 17 -0.42 2.3% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 77

Started Drive at: TOL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.59 - -0.18 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.18)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.3%

Win Probability (After): 3.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:21 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 4 at TOL 23) Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 4 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST down - MTSU 31, TOL 17 1.08 2.4% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 73

Started Drive at: TOL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.68 - -0.40 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.40)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.4%

Win Probability (After): 2.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:14 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 27) Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah Winstead - MTSU 31, TOL 17 -0.85 2.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: TOL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 0.86 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.14)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.6%

Win Probability (After): 2.5%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:14 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 10 at TOL 27) TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Mitchell Berg) to the Toled 22 - MTSU 31, TOL 17 -0.36 2.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 78

Started Drive at: TOL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.11 - 0.25 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.75)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.5%

Win Probability (After): 2.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:05 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 15 at TOL 22) Dequan Finn pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 9 yds to the Toled 31 - MTSU 31, TOL 17 0.18 2.0% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 69

Started Drive at: TOL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.04 - -0.14 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.14)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.0%

Win Probability (After): 2.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:40 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 6 at TOL 31) Dequan Finn run for 6 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST down - MTSU 31, TOL 17 1.24 1.8% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 63

Started Drive at: TOL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.32 - 0.08 = 1.24

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.92)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.8%

Win Probability (After): 2.5%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:30 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 37) Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin Maddox - MTSU 31, TOL 17 -0.56 2.0% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: TOL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.88 - 1.45 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.55)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.0%

Win Probability (After): 2.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:20 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 10 at TOL 37) Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 4 yds to the Toled 41 - MTSU 31, TOL 17 -0.23 1.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 59

Started Drive at: TOL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - 1.05 = -0.23

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.95)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.5%

Win Probability (After): 1.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:00 ESPN team id 2649 (3rd & 6 at TOL 41) Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 11 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST down - MTSU 31, TOL 17 1.16 1.1% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 48

Started Drive at: TOL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.09 - 0.92 = 1.16

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.08)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 1.9%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:52 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at MTSU 48) Dequan Finn sacked by Jordan Ferguson for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 48 - MTSU 31, TOL 17 -0.76 1.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 52

Started Drive at: TOL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 1.84 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.16)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.4%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:49 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 14 at TOL 48) Timeout TOLEDO, clock 01:49 - MTSU 31, TOL 17 0.00 1.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: TOL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 1.08 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.92)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 1.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:43 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 14 at TOL 48) Dequan Finn pass complete to Matt Landers for 16 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST down - MTSU 31, TOL 17 1.66 1.0% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 36

Started Drive at: TOL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.60 - 0.94 = 1.66

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.06)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:33 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at MTSU 36) Dequan Finn pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 11 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST down - MTSU 31, TOL 17 0.89 1.6% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 25

Started Drive at: TOL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.46 - 2.56 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.44)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.6%

Win Probability (After): 2.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:22 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at MTSU 25) Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Isaiah Winstead - MTSU 31, TOL 17 -0.35 1.9% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: TOL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.07 - 3.42 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.58)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.9%

Win Probability (After): 1.9%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:13 ESPN team id 2649 (2nd & 10 at MTSU 25) Dequan Finn run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 13 for a 1ST down - MTSU 31, TOL 17 1.16 1.9% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 13

Started Drive at: TOL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.26 - 3.10 = 1.16

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.90)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.9%

Win Probability (After): 2.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:08 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at MTSU 13) Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 13 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) - MTSU 31, TOL 24 2.73 2.4% 6.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.27 = 2.73

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.73)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 24

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 88 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.4%

Win Probability (After): 8.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:08 ESPN team id 2649 (1st & 10 at TOL 35) Timeout MIDDLE TENN, clock 01:08 - MTSU 31, TOL 17 0.00 10.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: TOL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 7.00 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.08)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 88 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.7%

Win Probability (After): 10.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:03 ESPN team id 2393 (Kickoff at MTSU 35) Thomas Cluckey on-side kick recovered by MIDDLE TENN at the Toled 49 - MTSU 31, TOL 17 0.92 99.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 49

Started Drive at: TOL 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.76 - 0.84 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.84)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:00 ESPN team id 2393 (1st & 10 at TOL 49) TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 47 - MTSU 31, TOL 24 -0.69 99.4% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 53

Started Drive at: TOL 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 1.54 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.54)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:24 ESPN team id 2393 (2nd & 14 at MTSU 47) TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 43 - MTSU 31, TOL 24 0.01 96.9% 3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 57

Started Drive at: TOL 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.54 - 0.53 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.53)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MTSU 31, TOL 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.9%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3