N Illinois 41 @ Coast Carolina 47

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 5.99 | Odds: CCU -12, O/U 63.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 2459 ESPN team id 324
Total Plays 9967
Total EPA 26.5432.08
  Offensive EPA 24.6733.82
  Special Teams EPA -1.45-0.61
  Penalty EPA 4.52-1.56
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA -1.200.43
Production ESPN team id 2459 ESPN team id 324
Scrimmage Plays 8855
  Yards 522514
  Yards/Play 5.939.35
  EPA 24.6733.82
  EPA/Play 0.280.61
Passes 34 (39%)31 (56%)
  Yards 181315
  Yards/Play 5.3210.16
  EPA 11.5924.65
  EPA/Play 0.340.80
Rushes 54 (61%)24 (44%)
  Yards 344203
  Yards/Play 6.378.46
  EPA 13.099.17
  EPA/Play 0.240.38
Rushing ESPN team id 2459 ESPN team id 324
Scrimmage Plays 8855
Rushes 54 (61%)24 (44%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 4 (7%)1 (4%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 2 (50%)1 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 9 (17%)4 (17%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 20 (37%)6 (25%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 32 (59%)16 (67%)
OL Line Yards 10426.3
  Per Carry 1.931.10
Highlight Yards 145.5108.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 4.556.78
Explosiveness ESPN team id 2459 ESPN team id 324
Total Plays 9967
Scrimmage Plays 8855
Explosive Plays 7 (8%)8 (15%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 3 (9%)4 (13%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 4 (7%)4 (17%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays 3.185.84
  EPA/Play 0.040.12
  When Passing 2.877.75
    EPA/Play 0.080.25
  When Rushing 0.31-1.91
    EPA/Play 0.01-0.10
Situational ESPN team id 2459 ESPN team id 324
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 47 (53%)33 (60%)
  When Passing 18 (53%)20 (65%)
  When Rushing 29 (54%)13 (54%)
  On Standard Downs 35 (54%)23 (64%)
  On Passing Downs 12 (52%)10 (53%)
  On Early Downs 38 (54%)26 (59%)
  On Late Downs 9 (50%)7 (64%)
  During "Middle 8" 7 (70%)11 (79%)
Early Downs 7044
  First Downs Created 19 (27%)11 (25%)
  EPA 17.9222.73
  EPA/Play 0.260.52
  Passes 26 (37%)25 (57%)
  Rushes 44 (63%)19 (43%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 13 (50%)15 (60%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 25 (57%)11 (58%)
"Middle 8" Plays 1014
  EPA 6.859.73
  EPA/play 0.680.70
  Passes 2 (20%)9 (64%)
  Rushes 8 (80%)5 (36%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 2 (100%)7 (78%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 5 (63%)4 (80%)
Drives ESPN team id 2459 ESPN team id 324
Total 1110
Avg Starting Field Position Own 28Own 29
Plays/Drive 9.787.47
Yards/Drive 58.1058.56
Available Yards % 80%83%
Defensive ESPN team id 2459 ESPN team id 324
Scrimmage Plays 5588
Stop Rate 11%14%
Havoc Plays Created 5 (9%)9 (10%)
  Passing 1 (3%)2 (6%)
  Rushing 4 (17%)7 (13%)
TFLs Generated 58
  Passing 12
  Rushing 46
Sacks Generated 1 (3%)1 (3%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 00
Fumbles Forced 01
Turnovers ESPN team id 2459 ESPN team id 324
Turnovers 20
  Fumbles 30
  Fumbles Lost 20
  Fumbles Recovered 10
  Interceptions 00
Turnover Margin -22
Expected Turnovers 1.51.5
Expected Turnover Margin 0.00.0
Turnover Luck (pts) -10.010.0
Special Teams ESPN team id 2459 ESPN team id 324
Total Plays 11 12
Total EPA -1.45 -0.61
  Field Goal EPA 2.23 2.15
  Punting EPA 0 -1
  Kickoff Return EPA -3.67 -1.77

Northern Illinois [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Rocky Lombardi 20/33, 181 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 79.8 xQBR 5.48 0.39 12.93 55% 38.0%
Trayvon Rudolph 0/0, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 48.2 xQBR 0.00 -1.34 -1.34 0% -4.0%
Rush attempts
Antario Brown 12 carries, 105 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.75 0.59 7.07 75% 25.0%
Jay Ducker 24 carries, 146 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 6.08 0.21 5.06 42% -12.0%
Rocky Lombardi 8 carries, 66 yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 8.25 0.54 4.32 75% 13.0%
Trayvon Rudolph 2 carries, 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 0.80 1.60 100% 3.0%
TEAM 1 carry, -2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -2.00 -0.02 -0.02 0% -1.0%
Clint Ratkovich 7 carries, 13 yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 1.86 -0.71 -4.94 29% -22.0%
Pass targets
Cole Tucker 6 catches (10 targets), 87 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.50 0.77 7.74 60% 21.0%
Miles Joiner 5 catches (6 targets), 29 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.80 0.98 5.86 67% -2.0%
Jay Ducker 1 catch (1 target), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.00 1.67 1.67 100% 8.0%
Messiah Travis 1 catch (1 target), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.69 0.69 100% 6.0%
Tristen Tewes 1 catch (2 targets), 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.00 0.27 0.53 50% 2.0%
Clint Ratkovich 2 catches (2 targets), 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.50 0.23 0.46 100% 1.0%
Fabian McCray 1 catch (2 targets), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 0.07 0.13 50% 7.0%
Mohamed Toure 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.69 -0.69 0% -2.0%
Billy Dozier 1 catch (1 target), -3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -3.00 -0.93 -0.93 0% 0.0%
Trayvon Rudolph 2 catches (7 targets), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.50 -0.36 -2.54 29% -3.0%

Coastal Carolina [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Grayson McCall 22/30, 315 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 87.9 xQBR 10.16 0.80 24.65 65% 91.0%
Rush attempts
Braydon Bennett 6 carries, 108 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 18.00 1.47 8.80 83% 16.0%
Shermari Jones 8 carries, 52 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.50 0.14 1.12 50% 12.0%
Grayson McCall 9 carries, 44 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.89 0.04 0.34 44% 4.0%
Reese White 1 carry, -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.00 -1.09 -1.09 0% -3.0%
Pass targets
Aaron Bedgood 1 catch (2 targets), 40 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 40.00 3.49 6.97 50% 12.0%
Isaiah Likely 7 catches (8 targets), 96 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.71 0.86 6.87 75% 41.0%
Jaivon Heiligh 7 catches (11 targets), 94 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.43 0.40 4.35 64% 18.0%
Braydon Bennett 4 catches (5 targets), 47 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.75 0.85 4.25 60% 16.0%
Kameron Brown 3 catches (4 targets), 38 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.67 0.73 2.92 75% 7.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 13:46 ESPN team id 324 (4th & 5 at NIU 40) Grayson McCall pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 40 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) - NIU 10, CCU 13 6.99 65.6% 13.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 99

Started Drive at: CCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.01 = 6.99

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.99)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.6%

Win Probability (After): 79.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:27 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at CCU 40) Braydon Bennett run for 60 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) - NIU 31, CCU 33 5.00 56.7% 16.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 99

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.00 = 5.00

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-3.00)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 31, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.7%

Win Probability (After): 73.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 26 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:40 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at NIU 34) Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 34 yds for a TD, (Grayson McCall pass to Isaiah Likely for Two-Point Conversion) - NIU 41, CCU 47 4.33 67.4% 21.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.67 = 4.33

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.67)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 1 play, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.4%

Win Probability (After): 88.4%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 39 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:30 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 43) Jay Ducker run for 56 yds to the CCaro 1 for a 1ST down - NIU 24, CCU 26 4.25 35.1% 12.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 1

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.48 - 2.23 = 4.25

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.23)

Score Difference (End): -2 (4.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 26

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.1%

Win Probability (After): 47.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:30 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 1 at CCU 49) Rocky Lombardi run for 28 yds to the CCaro 21 for a 1ST down - NIU 0, CCU 0 3.63 24.1% 7.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 21

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.67 - 1.05 = 3.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.1%

Win Probability (After): 31.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:12 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 9 at CCU 12) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for 12 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) - NIU 24, CCU 16 3.18 48.3% 7.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.82 = 3.18

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.82)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.3%

Win Probability (After): 56.2%

Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:49 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 1 at NIU 34) Clint Ratkovich run for no gain to the NoIll 34 - NIU 41, CCU 39 -3.16 53.4% -20.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 34

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.64 - -0.48 = -3.16

Score Difference (Before): 2 (1.52)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.64)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NIU 41, CCU 39

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.4%

Win Probability (After): 32.7%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 39 (39)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 4:35 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 10 at NIU 33) Ference, Matt punt 37 yards to the COASTALCAR30, fair catch by Heiligh, Jaivon, PENALTY COASTALCAR roughing the kicker (Bedgood, Aaron) 14 yards to the NORTHERNIL47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHERNIL. - NIU 17, CCU 16 3.10 31.9% 5.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 53

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.05 - -1.05 = 3.10

Score Difference (Before): 1 (-0.05)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.9%

Win Probability (After): 37.0%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:02 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 1 at CCU 8) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for 4 yds to the CCaro 4 for a 1ST down - NIU 41, CCU 47 2.88 15.5% -15.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 4

Started Drive at: NIU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.92 - 2.04 = 2.88

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.96)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-1.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 12:15 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 10 at 50) Antario Brown run for 34 yds to the CCaro 16 for a 1ST down - NIU 10, CCU 13 2.84 19.8% 6.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 16

Started Drive at: NIU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.87 - 2.03 = 2.84

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.97)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.8%

Win Probability (After): 26.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 6:40 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at NIU 34) Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 34 yds for a TD, (Grayson McCall pass to Isaiah Likely for Two-Point Conversion) - NIU 41, CCU 47 4.33 67.4% 21.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.67 = 4.33

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.67)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 1 play, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.4%

Win Probability (After): 88.4%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 39 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:49 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 1 at NIU 34) Clint Ratkovich run for no gain to the NoIll 34 - NIU 41, CCU 39 -3.16 53.4% -20.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 34

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.64 - -0.48 = -3.16

Score Difference (Before): 2 (1.52)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.64)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NIU 41, CCU 39

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.4%

Win Probability (After): 32.7%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 39 (39)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:07 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at NIU 40) Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 40 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - NIU 41, CCU 39 2.79 32.0% 18.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 99

Started Drive at: CCU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 3.21 = 2.79

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-4.79)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 39

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.0%

Win Probability (After): 50.5%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 33 (39)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:27 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at CCU 40) Braydon Bennett run for 60 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) - NIU 31, CCU 33 5.00 56.7% 16.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 99

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.00 = 5.00

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-3.00)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 31, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.7%

Win Probability (After): 73.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 26 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:02 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 1 at CCU 8) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for 4 yds to the CCaro 4 for a 1ST down - NIU 41, CCU 47 2.88 15.5% -15.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 4

Started Drive at: NIU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.92 - 2.04 = 2.88

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.96)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-1.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:30 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 13 at CCU 44) Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 16 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST down - NIU 41, CCU 33 2.05 24.0% 14.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 40

Started Drive at: CCU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 1.23 = 2.05

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.77)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-4.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.0%

Win Probability (After): 38.1%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:46 ESPN team id 324 (4th & 5 at NIU 40) Grayson McCall pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 40 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) - NIU 10, CCU 13 6.99 65.6% 13.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 99

Started Drive at: CCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.01 = 6.99

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.99)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.6%

Win Probability (After): 79.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:30 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 43) Jay Ducker run for 56 yds to the CCaro 1 for a 1ST down - NIU 24, CCU 26 4.25 35.1% 12.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 1

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.48 - 2.23 = 4.25

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.23)

Score Difference (End): -2 (4.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 26

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.1%

Win Probability (After): 47.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:05 ESPN team id 324 (4th & 6 at NIU 26) Massimo Biscardi 43 yd FG GOOD - NIU 24, CCU 19 1.54 43.7% 12.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: CCU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.46 = 1.54

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.54)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 19

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.7%

Win Probability (After): 56.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 16 (19)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:13 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & Goal at CCU 7) Antario Brown run for 7 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) - NIU 38, CCU 33 1.43 43.8% 10.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.57 = 1.43

Score Difference (Before): -2 (3.57)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 38, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.8%

Win Probability (After): 54.4%

Away Score: 31 (38) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 9:51 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & Goal at CCU 5) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 5 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) - NIU 7, CCU 0 2.66 30.6% 4.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.34 = 2.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.6%

Win Probability (After): 35.4%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:13 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 5 at NIU 13) Braydon Bennett run for 13 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi PAT BLOCKED) - NIU 7, CCU 6 2.26 69.7% 1.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.92 - 4.66 = 2.26

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.34)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.7%

Win Probability (After): 71.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:43 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 7 at CCU 23) John Richardson 41 yd FG GOOD - NIU 10, CCU 6 0.89 31.1% 4.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: NIU 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.11 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.11)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.1%

Win Probability (After): 35.4%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:46 ESPN team id 324 (4th & 5 at NIU 40) Grayson McCall pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 40 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) - NIU 10, CCU 13 6.99 65.6% 13.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 99

Started Drive at: CCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.01 = 6.99

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.99)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.6%

Win Probability (After): 79.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 8:35 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & Goal at CCU 2) Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) - NIU 17, CCU 13 1.17 29.8% 5.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.83 = 1.17

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.83)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.8%

Win Probability (After): 35.0%

Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:48 ESPN team id 324 (4th & Goal at NIU 10) Massimo Biscardi 27 yd FG GOOD - NIU 17, CCU 16 0.61 67.9% 3.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: CCU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.39 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.61)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.9%

Win Probability (After): 71.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:12 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 9 at CCU 12) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for 12 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) - NIU 24, CCU 16 3.18 48.3% 7.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.82 = 3.18

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.82)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.3%

Win Probability (After): 56.2%

Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:05 ESPN team id 324 (4th & 6 at NIU 26) Massimo Biscardi 43 yd FG GOOD - NIU 24, CCU 19 1.54 43.7% 12.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: CCU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.46 = 1.54

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.54)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 19

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.7%

Win Probability (After): 56.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 16 (19)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 12:34 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at NIU 27) Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 27 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) - NIU 24, CCU 26 2.79 66.1% 10.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.21 = 2.79

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-0.79)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 26

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.1%

Win Probability (After): 76.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 19 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:08 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & Goal at CCU 1) Rocky Lombardi run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) - NIU 31, CCU 26 0.51 46.1% 5.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.49 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): -2 (4.49)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 31, CCU 26

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.1%

Win Probability (After): 51.2%

Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:27 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at CCU 40) Braydon Bennett run for 60 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) - NIU 31, CCU 33 5.00 56.7% 16.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 99

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.00 = 5.00

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-3.00)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 31, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.7%

Win Probability (After): 73.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 26 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:13 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & Goal at CCU 7) Antario Brown run for 7 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) - NIU 38, CCU 33 1.43 43.8% 10.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.57 = 1.43

Score Difference (Before): -2 (3.57)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 38, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.8%

Win Probability (After): 54.4%

Away Score: 31 (38) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:51 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 9 at CCU 27) John Richardson 45 yd FG GOOD - NIU 41, CCU 33 1.34 63.8% 7.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 27

Started Drive at: NIU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.66 = 1.34

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.66)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.8%

Win Probability (After): 71.4%

Away Score: 38 (41) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:07 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at NIU 40) Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 40 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - NIU 41, CCU 39 2.79 32.0% 18.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 99

Started Drive at: CCU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 3.21 = 2.79

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-4.79)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 39

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.0%

Win Probability (After): 50.5%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 33 (39)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:40 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at NIU 34) Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 34 yds for a TD, (Grayson McCall pass to Isaiah Likely for Two-Point Conversion) - NIU 41, CCU 47 4.33 67.4% 21.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.67 = 4.33

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.67)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 1 play, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.4%

Win Probability (After): 88.4%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 39 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2459 (Kickoff at NIU 35) Kieran Colahan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NIU 0, CCU 0 0.00 18.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.3%

Win Probability (After): 18.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:48 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 25) Jay Ducker run for 9 yds to the NoIll 34 - NIU 0, CCU 0 1.03 22.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.09 - 1.06 = 1.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.2%

Win Probability (After): 21.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:30 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 1 at NIU 34) Antario Brown run for 8 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST down - NIU 0, CCU 0 0.04 24.7% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 58

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.28 - 2.24 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.24)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.7%

Win Probability (After): 23.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:51 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 42) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon Rudolph - NIU 0, CCU 0 -0.70 25.6% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.63 - 2.34 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.6%

Win Probability (After): 23.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:30 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 10 at NIU 42) Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the NoIll 46 - NIU 0, CCU 0 -0.38 24.8% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 54

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.25 - 1.63 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.8%

Win Probability (After): 23.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:50 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 6 at NIU 46) Clint Ratkovich run for 5 yds to the CCaro 49 - NIU 0, CCU 0 -0.13 26.0% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 49

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.09 - 1.21 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.0%

Win Probability (After): 24.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:30 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 1 at CCU 49) Rocky Lombardi run for 28 yds to the CCaro 21 for a 1ST down - NIU 0, CCU 0 3.63 24.1% 7.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 21

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.67 - 1.05 = 3.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.1%

Win Probability (After): 31.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 11:50 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CCU 21) Jay Ducker run for 9 yds to the CCaro 12 - NIU 0, CCU 0 0.72 28.9% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 12

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.39 - 4.67 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.67)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.9%

Win Probability (After): 30.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:35 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 1 at CCU 12) Jay Ducker run for 10 yds to the CCaro 2 for a 1ST down - NIU 0, CCU 0 0.93 30.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 2

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.33 - 5.40 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.40)

Score Difference (End): 0 (6.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.4%

Win Probability (After): 30.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:05 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & Goal at CCU 2) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Billy Dozier for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 5 - NIU 0, CCU 0 -0.93 30.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 5

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.39 - 6.32 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.32)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.5%

Win Probability (After): 30.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:20 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & Goal at CCU 5) Clint Ratkovich run for no gain to the CCaro 5 - NIU 0, CCU 0 -1.15 29.6% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 5

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.27 - 5.42 = -1.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.42)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 0, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.6%

Win Probability (After): 28.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:51 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & Goal at CCU 5) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 5 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) - NIU 7, CCU 0 2.66 30.6% 4.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.34 = 2.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.6%

Win Probability (After): 35.4%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:51 ESPN team id 324 (Kickoff at CCU 35) John Richardson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NIU 7, CCU 0 0.00 63.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 0.01 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.99)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.6%

Win Probability (After): 63.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:45 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at CCU 25) Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 9 yds to the CCaro 34 - NIU 7, CCU 0 1.22 61.0% 4.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.29 - 0.07 = 1.22

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.93)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.0%

Win Probability (After): 65.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:30 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 1 at CCU 34) Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 7 yds to the CCaro 41 for a 1ST down - NIU 7, CCU 0 0.19 60.7% 4.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 59

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 1.28 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.72)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.7%

Win Probability (After): 64.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:50 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at CCU 41) Braydon Bennett run for 15 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST down - NIU 7, CCU 0 1.07 64.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 44

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.46 - 1.38 = 1.07

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.62)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.1%

Win Probability (After): 64.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:25 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at NIU 44) Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 6 yds to the NoIll 38 - NIU 7, CCU 0 0.33 65.8% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 38

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.70 - 2.36 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.64)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.8%

Win Probability (After): 66.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:35 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 4 at NIU 38) Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 7 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST down - NIU 7, CCU 0 0.74 70.7% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 31

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.43 - 2.69 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.31)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.7%

Win Probability (After): 68.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:08 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at NIU 31) Reese White run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 32 - NIU 7, CCU 0 -1.09 72.4% -2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 32

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 3.49 = -1.09

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.51)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.4%

Win Probability (After): 69.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:35 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 11 at NIU 32) Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 6 yds to the NoIll 26 - NIU 7, CCU 0 0.39 68.4% 1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 26

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 2.41 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.59)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.4%

Win Probability (After): 70.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:15 ESPN team id 324 (3rd & 5 at NIU 26) Timeout NORTHERNIL, clock 06:15 - NIU 7, CCU 0 0.00 68.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 2.81 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.19)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.7%

Win Probability (After): 68.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:00 ESPN team id 324 (3rd & 5 at NIU 26) Grayson McCall run for 8 yds to the NoIll 18 for a 1ST down - NIU 7, CCU 0 1.74 69.5% 4.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 18

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - 2.79 = 1.74

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.21)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.5%

Win Probability (After): 73.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:43 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at NIU 18) Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon Heiligh - NIU 7, CCU 0 -0.65 71.0% 2.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.87 - 4.52 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.48)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.0%

Win Probability (After): 73.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:36 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 10 at NIU 18) NORTHERNIL Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the NoIll 13 - NIU 7, CCU 0 0.77 68.1% 3.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 13

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.64 - 3.87 = 0.77

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.13)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.1%

Win Probability (After): 71.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:13 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 5 at NIU 13) Braydon Bennett run for 13 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi PAT BLOCKED) - NIU 7, CCU 6 2.26 69.7% 1.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 99

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.92 - 4.66 = 2.26

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.34)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.7%

Win Probability (After): 71.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:13 ESPN team id 2459 (Kickoff at NIU 35) Kieran Colahan kickoff for 63 yds , Trayvon Rudolph return for 41 yds to the NoIll 43 - NIU 7, CCU 6 0.17 32.3% 1.0%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 57

Started Drive at: NIU 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - 1.18 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.18)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.3%

Win Probability (After): 33.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:06 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 43) COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NoIll 48 - NIU 7, CCU 6 0.69 33.5% 1.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 52

Started Drive at: NIU 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.05 - 2.36 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.36)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.5%

Win Probability (After): 34.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:55 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 5 at NIU 48) Jay Ducker run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 47 - NIU 7, CCU 6 -0.84 35.9% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 53

Started Drive at: NIU 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.21 - 3.05 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.05)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.9%

Win Probability (After): 33.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:24 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 6 at NIU 47) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Fabian McCray for 9 yds to the CCaro 44 for a 1ST down - NIU 7, CCU 6 1.02 27.8% 8.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 44

Started Drive at: NIU 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.22 - 2.21 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.21)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.8%

Win Probability (After): 36.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:39 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CCU 44) Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the CCaro 40 - NIU 7, CCU 6 -0.08 33.2% -4.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 40

Started Drive at: NIU 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.14 - 3.22 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.22)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.2%

Win Probability (After): 28.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:58 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 6 at CCU 40) Jay Ducker run for 14 yds to the CCaro 26 for a 1ST down - NIU 7, CCU 6 1.20 34.0% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 26

Started Drive at: NIU 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.31 - 3.11 = 1.20

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.11)

Score Difference (End): 1 (5.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.0%

Win Probability (After): 34.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:22 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CCU 26) Jay Ducker run for 3 yds to the CCaro 23 - NIU 7, CCU 6 -0.27 35.2% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 23

Started Drive at: NIU 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.02 - 4.30 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): 1 (5.30)

Score Difference (End): 1 (5.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.2%

Win Probability (After): 35.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:52 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 7 at CCU 23) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon Rudolph - NIU 7, CCU 6 -0.82 34.8% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: NIU 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.21 - 4.02 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): 1 (5.02)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.8%

Win Probability (After): 33.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:48 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 7 at CCU 23) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cole Tucker - NIU 7, CCU 6 -1.10 33.9% -3.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: NIU 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 3.21 = -1.10

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.21)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 7, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.9%

Win Probability (After): 30.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:43 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 7 at CCU 23) John Richardson 41 yd FG GOOD - NIU 10, CCU 6 0.89 31.1% 4.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: NIU 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.11 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.11)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.1%

Win Probability (After): 35.4%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 1:43 ESPN team id 324 (Kickoff at CCU 35) John Richardson kickoff for 65 yds , Fred Jackson return for 21 yds to the CCaro 21 - NIU 10, CCU 6 -1.28 62.5% -0.9%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 79

Started Drive at: CCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.56 - 0.72 = -1.28

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.28)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.5%

Win Probability (After): 61.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:31 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at CCU 21) Shermari Jones run for 8 yds to the CCaro 29 - NIU 10, CCU 6 0.57 62.1% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 71

Started Drive at: CCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.19 - 0.62 = 0.57

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.38)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.1%

Win Probability (After): 63.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:08 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 2 at CCU 29) Shermari Jones run for 1 yd to the CCaro 30 - NIU 10, CCU 6 -0.59 63.5% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 70

Started Drive at: CCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 1.22 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.78)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.5%

Win Probability (After): 61.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:58 ESPN team id 324 (3rd & 1 at CCU 30) Shermari Jones run for 7 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST down - NIU 10, CCU 6 1.14 62.0% 3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 63

Started Drive at: CCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.76 - 0.62 = 1.14

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.38)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.0%

Win Probability (After): 65.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:22 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at CCU 37) Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Kameron Brown - NIU 10, CCU 6 -0.62 62.8% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: CCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - 1.77 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.23)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.8%

Win Probability (After): 63.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:13 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 10 at CCU 37) Braydon Bennett run for 18 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST down - NIU 10, CCU 6 1.83 61.3% 3.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 45

Started Drive at: CCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.97 - 1.14 = 1.83

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.86)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.3%

Win Probability (After): 65.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:46 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at NIU 45) Shermari Jones run for 5 yds to the NoIll 40 - NIU 10, CCU 6 0.18 70.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 40

Started Drive at: CCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.15 - 2.97 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.03)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.5%

Win Probability (After): 70.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:23 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 5 at NIU 40) Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon Heiligh - NIU 10, CCU 6 -1.01 72.4% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40

Started Drive at: CCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 3.19 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.81)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.4%

Win Probability (After): 69.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:23 ESPN team id 324 (3rd & 5 at NIU 40) COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (Grayson McCall) to the NoIll 45 - NIU 10, CCU 6 -0.76 70.7% -2.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 45

Started Drive at: CCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.42 - 2.18 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.82)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.7%

Win Probability (After): 68.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:57 ESPN team id 324 (3rd & 10 at NIU 45) Grayson McCall run for 5 yds to the NoIll 40 - NIU 10, CCU 6 -1.35 67.4% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 40

Started Drive at: CCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 1.40 = -1.35

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.60)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 6

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.4%

Win Probability (After): 66.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:46 ESPN team id 324 (4th & 5 at NIU 40) Grayson McCall pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 40 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) - NIU 10, CCU 13 6.99 65.6% 13.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 99

Started Drive at: CCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.01 = 6.99

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.99)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.6%

Win Probability (After): 79.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:46 ESPN team id 2459 (Kickoff at NIU 35) Kieran Colahan kickoff for 45 yds , Tristen Tewes return for 12 yds to the NoIll 32 - NIU 10, CCU 13 -0.45 20.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 68

Started Drive at: NIU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.79 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.21)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.4%

Win Probability (After): 20.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:33 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 32) Antario Brown run for 6 yds to the NoIll 38 - NIU 10, CCU 13 0.20 20.8% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 62

Started Drive at: NIU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.70 - 1.50 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.50)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.8%

Win Probability (After): 21.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:52 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 4 at NIU 38) Antario Brown run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - NIU 10, CCU 13 0.93 21.0% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 50

Started Drive at: NIU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.60 - 1.68 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.32)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.0%

Win Probability (After): 23.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:24 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at 50) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon Rudolph - NIU 10, CCU 13 -0.69 21.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: NIU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.96 - 2.65 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.35)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.7%

Win Probability (After): 21.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:15 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 10 at 50) Antario Brown run for 34 yds to the CCaro 16 for a 1ST down - NIU 10, CCU 13 2.84 19.8% 6.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 16

Started Drive at: NIU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.87 - 2.03 = 2.84

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.97)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.8%

Win Probability (After): 26.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:45 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CCU 16) COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jerrod Clark) to the CCaro 11 - NIU 10, CCU 13 0.42 26.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 11

Started Drive at: NIU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.29 - 4.87 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.87)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.8%

Win Probability (After): 26.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:11 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 5 at CCU 11) Jay Ducker run for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 13 Jay Ducker fumbled, recovered by NoIll Jay Ducker - NIU 10, CCU 13 -0.84 32.2% -6.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 13

Started Drive at: NIU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.46 - 5.31 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.31)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.2%

Win Probability (After): 26.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:34 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 7 at CCU 13) Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the CCaro 9 - NIU 10, CCU 13 -0.08 31.7% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 9

Started Drive at: NIU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.38 - 4.46 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.46)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.7%

Win Probability (After): 30.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:40 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 3 at CCU 9) Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the CCaro 5 for a 1ST down - NIU 10, CCU 13 1.39 30.0% 3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 5

Started Drive at: NIU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.77 - 4.38 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.38)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.0%

Win Probability (After): 33.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:57 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & Goal at CCU 5) Clint Ratkovich run for 3 yds to the CCaro 2 - NIU 10, CCU 13 0.08 29.9% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 2

Started Drive at: NIU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.86 - 5.77 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.77)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 10, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.9%

Win Probability (After): 31.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:35 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & Goal at CCU 2) Clint Ratkovich run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) - NIU 17, CCU 13 1.17 29.8% 5.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.83 = 1.17

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.83)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.8%

Win Probability (After): 35.0%

Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:35 ESPN team id 324 (Kickoff at CCU 35) John Richardson kickoff for 63 yds , Fred Jackson return for 30 yds to the CCaro 32 - NIU 17, CCU 13 -0.50 63.0% -0.5%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 68

Started Drive at: CCU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.30 - 0.80 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.20)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.0%

Win Probability (After): 62.4%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:05 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at CCU 32) Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for no gain to the CCaro 32 - NIU 17, CCU 13 -0.72 64.3% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 68

Started Drive at: CCU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 1.37 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.63)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.3%

Win Probability (After): 62.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:41 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 10 at CCU 32) Braydon Bennett run for 7 yds to the CCaro 39 - NIU 17, CCU 13 0.31 61.5% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 61

Started Drive at: CCU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 0.64 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.36)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.5%

Win Probability (After): 62.8%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:46 ESPN team id 324 (3rd & 3 at CCU 39) Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 16 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST down - NIU 17, CCU 13 1.67 60.8% 6.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 45

Started Drive at: CCU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.78 - 1.11 = 1.67

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.89)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.8%

Win Probability (After): 67.1%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:05 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at NIU 45) Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 35 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST down - NIU 17, CCU 13 2.19 66.4% 5.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 10

Started Drive at: CCU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.93 - 2.74 = 2.19

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.26)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.4%

Win Probability (After): 71.8%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:04 ESPN team id 324 (1st & Goal at NIU 10) Timeout NORTHERNIL, clock 06:04 - NIU 17, CCU 13 0.00 71.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: CCU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.93 - 4.93 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.93)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.6%

Win Probability (After): 71.6%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:02 ESPN team id 324 (1st & Goal at NIU 10) Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Isaiah Likely - NIU 17, CCU 13 -0.56 71.9% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: CCU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 4.90 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.90)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.9%

Win Probability (After): 71.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:56 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & Goal at NIU 10) Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon Heiligh - NIU 17, CCU 13 -0.79 73.0% -4.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: CCU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.55 - 4.34 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.34)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.0%

Win Probability (After): 68.1%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:56 ESPN team id 324 (3rd & Goal at NIU 10) Timeout COASTL CAROLINA, clock 05:56 - NIU 17, CCU 13 0.00 70.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: CCU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.55 - 3.55 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.45)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.2%

Win Probability (After): 70.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:53 ESPN team id 324 (3rd & Goal at NIU 10) Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jaivon Heiligh - NIU 17, CCU 13 -1.16 69.9% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: CCU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 3.57 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.43)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.9%

Win Probability (After): 67.9%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:48 ESPN team id 324 (4th & Goal at NIU 10) Massimo Biscardi 27 yd FG GOOD - NIU 17, CCU 16 0.61 67.9% 3.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: CCU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.39 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.61)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.9%

Win Probability (After): 71.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:48 ESPN team id 2459 (Kickoff at NIU 35) Kieran Colahan kickoff for 62 yds , Trayvon Rudolph return for 30 yds to the NoIll 33 - NIU 17, CCU 16 -0.47 35.4% -0.5%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 67

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.26 - 0.73 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.73)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.4%

Win Probability (After): 34.9%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:18 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 33) Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the NoIll 34 - NIU 17, CCU 16 -0.56 35.7% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 66

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.77 - 1.33 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.33)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.7%

Win Probability (After): 35.0%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:00 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 9 at NIU 34) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Mohamed Toure - NIU 17, CCU 16 -0.69 35.4% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 1.04 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.04)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.4%

Win Probability (After): 33.9%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:40 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 9 at NIU 34) Clint Ratkovich run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 33 - NIU 17, CCU 16 -1.39 32.6% -3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 67

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.04 - 0.35 = -1.39

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.35)

Score Difference (End): 1 (-0.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.6%

Win Probability (After): 29.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:35 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 10 at NIU 33) Ference, Matt punt 37 yards to the COASTALCAR30, fair catch by Heiligh, Jaivon, PENALTY COASTALCAR roughing the kicker (Bedgood, Aaron) 14 yards to the NORTHERNIL47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHERNIL. - NIU 17, CCU 16 3.10 31.9% 5.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 53

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.05 - -1.05 = 3.10

Score Difference (Before): 1 (-0.05)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.9%

Win Probability (After): 37.0%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 4:25 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 47) Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the COASTALCAR 49 for a 1ST down COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the CCaro 34 for a 1ST down - NIU 17, CCU 16 1.27 39.8% 4.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 34

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.33 - 2.12 = 1.27

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.05)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.8%

Win Probability (After): 43.9%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:53 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CCU 34) Trayvon Rudolph run for 9 yds to the CCaro 25 - NIU 17, CCU 16 1.11 40.9% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 25

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.27 - 3.16 = 1.11

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.16)

Score Difference (End): 1 (5.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.9%

Win Probability (After): 43.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:15 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 1 at CCU 25) Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the CCaro 23 for a 1ST down - NIU 17, CCU 16 0.09 42.0% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 23

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.96 - 3.88 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.88)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.0%

Win Probability (After): 42.8%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:30 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CCU 23) Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the CCaro 19 - NIU 17, CCU 16 0.21 42.2% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 19

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.80 - 3.59 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.59)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.1%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:45 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 6 at CCU 19) Jay Ducker run for 6 yds to the CCaro 13 for a 1ST down - NIU 17, CCU 16 0.94 44.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 13

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.42 - 3.48 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.48)

Score Difference (End): 1 (5.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.7%

Win Probability (After): 44.4%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:20 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CCU 13) Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the CCaro 12 - NIU 17, CCU 16 -0.20 48.5% -2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 12

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.86 - 4.06 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): 1 (5.06)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 45.7%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:19 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 9 at CCU 12) Timeout COASTL CAROLINA, clock 01:19 - NIU 17, CCU 16 0.00 48.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 12

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.86 - 3.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.86)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 17, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.0%

Win Probability (After): 48.0%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:12 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 9 at CCU 12) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for 12 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) - NIU 24, CCU 16 3.18 48.3% 7.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.82 = 3.18

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.82)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.3%

Win Probability (After): 56.2%

Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:12 ESPN team id 324 (Kickoff at CCU 35) John Richardson kickoff for 43 yds , JT Killen return for 8 yds to the CCaro 30 - NIU 24, CCU 16 -0.11 42.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 70

Started Drive at: CCU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - 0.63 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.37)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.0%

Win Probability (After): 41.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:08 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at CCU 30) Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 5 yds to the CCaro 35 - NIU 24, CCU 16 0.03 42.4% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 65

Started Drive at: CCU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - 0.87 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.13)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.4%

Win Probability (After): 42.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:55 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 5 at CCU 35) Grayson McCall run for 11 yds to the CCaro 46 for a 1ST down - NIU 24, CCU 16 0.78 41.0% 3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 54

Started Drive at: CCU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.42 - 0.64 = 0.78

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.36)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-6.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.0%

Win Probability (After): 44.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:48 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at CCU 46) Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 10 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST down - NIU 24, CCU 16 0.53 44.2% 1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 44

Started Drive at: CCU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.57 - 1.04 = 0.53

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.96)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-6.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.2%

Win Probability (After): 45.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:44 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at NIU 44) Grayson McCall sacked by Jaden Dolphin for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 48 - NIU 24, CCU 16 -0.70 45.7% -3.9%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 48

Started Drive at: CCU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - 1.51 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.49)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.7%

Win Probability (After): 41.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:43 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 14 at NIU 48) Timeout COASTL CAROLINA, clock 00:43 - NIU 24, CCU 16 0.00 41.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48

Started Drive at: CCU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - 0.80 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.20)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.9%

Win Probability (After): 41.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:30 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 14 at NIU 48) Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 8 yds to the NoIll 40 - NIU 24, CCU 16 0.64 41.7% 2.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 40

Started Drive at: CCU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.37 - 0.72 = 0.64

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.28)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-6.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.7%

Win Probability (After): 44.5%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:25 ESPN team id 324 (3rd & 6 at NIU 40) Grayson McCall pass complete to Jaivon Heiligh for 10 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST down - NIU 24, CCU 16 1.38 45.0% 4.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 30

Started Drive at: CCU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 1.20 = 1.38

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.80)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-5.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.0%

Win Probability (After): 49.4%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:18 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at NIU 30) Grayson McCall run for 4 yds to the NoIll 26 - NIU 24, CCU 16 0.82 47.4% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 26

Started Drive at: CCU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.07 - 2.24 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.76)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-4.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.4%

Win Probability (After): 50.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:18 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 6 at NIU 26) COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Jaivon Heiligh) to the NoIll 31 - NIU 24, CCU 16 -1.14 50.0% -5.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 31

Started Drive at: CCU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.79 - 2.93 = -1.14

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.07)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-6.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.0%

Win Probability (After): 44.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:12 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 11 at NIU 31) Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Aaron Bedgood - NIU 24, CCU 16 -0.02 44.6% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 31

Started Drive at: CCU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.55 - 1.57 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.43)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-6.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.6%

Win Probability (After): 43.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:10 ESPN team id 324 (3rd & 11 at NIU 31) Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 5 yds to the NoIll 26 - NIU 24, CCU 16 0.19 43.2% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 26

Started Drive at: CCU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.49 - 1.30 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.70)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-6.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 16

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.7%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:05 ESPN team id 324 (4th & 6 at NIU 26) Massimo Biscardi 43 yd FG GOOD - NIU 24, CCU 19 1.54 43.7% 12.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: CCU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.46 = 1.54

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.54)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 19

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.7%

Win Probability (After): 56.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 16 (19)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:05 ESPN team id 2459 (Kickoff at NIU 35) Kieran Colahan kickoff for 47 yds - NIU 24, CCU 19 -0.01 49.4% -0.6%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 82

Started Drive at: NIU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 0.06 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): 5 (5.06)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 19

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.4%

Win Probability (After): 48.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 19 (19)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:01 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 18) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 16 - NIU 24, CCU 19 -0.02 48.4% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 84

Started Drive at: NIU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.03 - 0.02 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): 5 (5.02)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 19

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.4%

Win Probability (After): 47.7%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 19 (19)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 324 (Kickoff at CCU 35) John Richardson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NIU 24, CCU 19 0.00 53.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 0.43 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.57)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-4.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 19

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.7%

Win Probability (After): 53.7%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 19 (19)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:45 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at CCU 25) Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 7 yds to the CCaro 32 - NIU 24, CCU 19 0.43 60.8% -7.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 68

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.09 - 0.66 = 0.43

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.34)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-3.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 19

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.8%

Win Probability (After): 53.4%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 19 (19)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:20 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 3 at CCU 32) Shermari Jones run for 27 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST down - NIU 24, CCU 19 1.99 61.7% 6.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 41

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.31 - 1.31 = 1.99

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-3.69)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-1.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 19

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.7%

Win Probability (After): 67.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 19 (19)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:35 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at NIU 41) Shermari Jones run for 4 yds to the NoIll 37 - NIU 24, CCU 19 -0.19 61.0% 7.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 37

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 3.30 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-1.70)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-1.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 19

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.0%

Win Probability (After): 68.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 19 (19)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:15 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 6 at NIU 37) Grayson McCall run for 10 yds to the NoIll 27 for a 1ST down - NIU 24, CCU 19 1.06 64.8% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 27

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.19 - 3.13 = 1.06

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-1.87)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-0.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 19

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.8%

Win Probability (After): 64.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 19 (19)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:34 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at NIU 27) Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 27 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) - NIU 24, CCU 26 2.79 66.1% 10.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 99

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.21 = 2.79

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-0.79)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 26

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.1%

Win Probability (After): 76.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 19 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:34 ESPN team id 2459 (Kickoff at NIU 35) Kieran Colahan kickoff for 62 yds , Trayvon Rudolph return for 18 yds to the NoIll 21 - NIU 24, CCU 26 -1.34 30.7% -2.7%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 79

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.48 - 0.86 = -1.34

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.14)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 26

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.7%

Win Probability (After): 28.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:15 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 21) Jay Ducker run for 12 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST down - NIU 24, CCU 26 0.97 30.4% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 67

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.66 - 0.69 = 0.97

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.31)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 26

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.4%

Win Probability (After): 32.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:35 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 33) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 9 yds to the NoIll 42 - NIU 24, CCU 26 0.87 32.6% 3.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 58

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.52 - 1.65 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.35)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 26

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.6%

Win Probability (After): 36.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:00 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 1 at NIU 42) Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST down - NIU 24, CCU 26 -0.28 36.0% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 57

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.23 - 2.51 = -0.28

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.51)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 26

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.0%

Win Probability (After): 35.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:30 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 43) Jay Ducker run for 56 yds to the CCaro 1 for a 1ST down - NIU 24, CCU 26 4.25 35.1% 12.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 1

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.48 - 2.23 = 4.25

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.23)

Score Difference (End): -2 (4.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 26

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.1%

Win Probability (After): 47.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:15 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & Goal at CCU 1) Timeout NORTHERNIL, clock 10:15 - NIU 24, CCU 26 0.00 46.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 1

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.48 - 6.48 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -2 (4.48)

Score Difference (End): -2 (4.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 24, CCU 26

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.6%

Win Probability (After): 46.6%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:08 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & Goal at CCU 1) Rocky Lombardi run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) - NIU 31, CCU 26 0.51 46.1% 5.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.49 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): -2 (4.49)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 31, CCU 26

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.1%

Win Probability (After): 51.2%

Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:08 ESPN team id 324 (Kickoff at CCU 35) John Richardson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NIU 31, CCU 26 0.00 50.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.59 - 0.59 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.41)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-4.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 31, CCU 26

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.9%

Win Probability (After): 50.9%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:55 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at CCU 25) Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 15 yds to the CCaro 40 for a 1ST down - NIU 31, CCU 26 1.07 52.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 60

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 0.75 = 1.07

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.25)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-3.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 31, CCU 26

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.5%

Win Probability (After): 52.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 26 (26)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:27 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at CCU 40) Braydon Bennett run for 60 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) - NIU 31, CCU 33 5.00 56.7% 16.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 99

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.00 = 5.00

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-3.00)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 31, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.7%

Win Probability (After): 73.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 26 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:27 ESPN team id 2459 (Kickoff at NIU 35) Kieran Colahan kickoff for 40 yds , Miles Joiner return for 8 yds to the NoIll 33 - NIU 31, CCU 33 -0.33 28.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 67

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - 0.85 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.15)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 31, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.1%

Win Probability (After): 27.6%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:10 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 33) Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the NoIll 37 - NIU 31, CCU 33 -0.19 30.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 63

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.50 - 1.70 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.30)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 31, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.0%

Win Probability (After): 29.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:20 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 6 at NIU 37) Antario Brown run for 7 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST down - NIU 31, CCU 33 0.88 29.4% 4.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 56

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 1.52 = 0.88

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.48)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 31, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.4%

Win Probability (After): 33.5%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:35 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 44) Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the NoIll 48 - NIU 31, CCU 33 -0.14 34.4% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 52

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.22 - 2.35 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.35)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 31, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.4%

Win Probability (After): 32.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:05 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 6 at NIU 48) Antario Brown run for 15 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST down - NIU 31, CCU 33 1.24 34.4% 4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 37

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.50 - 2.26 = 1.24

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.26)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 31, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.4%

Win Probability (After): 38.4%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:35 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CCU 37) Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the CCaro 36 - NIU 31, CCU 33 -0.45 38.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 36

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.07 - 3.51 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.51)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 31, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.5%

Win Probability (After): 38.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:50 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 9 at CCU 36) Jay Ducker run for 1 yd to the CCaro 35 - NIU 31, CCU 33 -0.84 38.2% -4.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 35

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.19 - 3.03 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.03)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 31, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.2%

Win Probability (After): 33.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:05 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 8 at CCU 35) Rocky Lombardi run for 10 yds to the CCaro 25 for a 1ST down - NIU 31, CCU 33 2.06 34.2% 6.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 25

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.25 - 2.19 = 2.06

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.19)

Score Difference (End): -2 (2.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 31, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.2%

Win Probability (After): 41.0%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:20 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CCU 25) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 6 yds to the CCaro 19 - NIU 31, CCU 33 0.37 41.2% 2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 19

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.62 - 4.25 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): -2 (2.25)

Score Difference (End): -2 (2.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 31, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.6%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:08 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 4 at CCU 19) NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CCaro 24 - NIU 31, CCU 33 -0.90 44.2% -3.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 24

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.73 - 4.63 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): -2 (2.63)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 31, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.2%

Win Probability (After): 40.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:40 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 9 at CCU 24) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 17 yds to the CCaro 7 for a 1ST down - NIU 31, CCU 33 1.86 40.4% 6.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 7

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.58 - 3.72 = 1.86

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.72)

Score Difference (End): -2 (3.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 31, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.4%

Win Probability (After): 46.5%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:13 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & Goal at CCU 7) Antario Brown run for 7 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) - NIU 38, CCU 33 1.43 43.8% 10.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.57 = 1.43

Score Difference (Before): -2 (3.57)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 38, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.8%

Win Probability (After): 54.4%

Away Score: 31 (38) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:13 ESPN team id 324 (Kickoff at CCU 35) John Richardson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NIU 38, CCU 33 0.00 46.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.77 - 0.77 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.23)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-4.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 38, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.6%

Win Probability (After): 46.6%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:55 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at CCU 25) Grayson McCall run for 1 yd to the CCaro 26 - NIU 38, CCU 33 -0.51 47.1% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.26 - 0.77 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.23)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-4.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 38, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.1%

Win Probability (After): 45.7%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:20 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 9 at CCU 26) Braydon Bennett run for a loss of 5 yards to the CCaro 21 - NIU 38, CCU 33 -1.67 46.2% -7.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 79

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.41 - 0.27 = -1.67

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.73)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-6.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 38, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.2%

Win Probability (After): 38.8%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:41 ESPN team id 324 (3rd & 14 at CCU 21) Grayson McCall run for 3 yds to the CCaro 24 - NIU 38, CCU 33 -0.95 39.3% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 76

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.30 - -1.35 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-6.35)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-7.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 38, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.3%

Win Probability (After): 38.6%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:54 ESPN team id 324 (4th & 11 at CCU 24) Charles Ouverson punt for 46 yds , Cole Tucker returns for no gain to the NoIll 24 COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jaivon Heiligh) to the NoIll 45 - NIU 38, CCU 33 -0.33 36.7% -2.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 55

Started Drive at: CCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.63 - -2.20 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-7.30)

Score Difference (End): 5 (7.63)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NIU 38, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.7%

Win Probability (After): 34.4%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 0:28 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 45) Jay Ducker run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 44 - NIU 38, CCU 33 -0.94 66.4% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 56

Started Drive at: NIU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.72 - 2.65 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): 5 (7.65)

Score Difference (End): 5 (6.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 38, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.4%

Win Probability (After): 64.9%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:05 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 11 at NIU 44) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 17 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST down - NIU 38, CCU 33 1.91 65.0% 5.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 39

Started Drive at: NIU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 1.70 = 1.91

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.70)

Score Difference (End): 5 (8.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 38, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.0%

Win Probability (After): 70.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:55 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CCU 39) Jay Ducker run for 2 yds to the CCaro 37 - NIU 38, CCU 33 -0.63 66.7% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 37

Started Drive at: NIU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.96 - 3.59 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 5 (8.59)

Score Difference (End): 5 (7.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 38, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.7%

Win Probability (After): 67.0%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:20 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 8 at CCU 37) Jay Ducker run for 7 yds to the CCaro 30 - NIU 38, CCU 33 0.78 66.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 30

Started Drive at: NIU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.76 - 2.98 = 0.78

Score Difference (Before): 5 (7.98)

Score Difference (End): 5 (8.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 38, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.2%

Win Probability (After): 66.2%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:35 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 1 at CCU 30) Rocky Lombardi run for 2 yds to the CCaro 28 for a 1ST down - NIU 38, CCU 33 0.50 68.1% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 28

Started Drive at: NIU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.24 - 3.74 = 0.50

Score Difference (Before): 5 (8.74)

Score Difference (End): 5 (9.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 38, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.1%

Win Probability (After): 69.2%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:35 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CCU 28) Jay Ducker run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 31 - NIU 38, CCU 33 -1.25 70.9% -4.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 31

Started Drive at: NIU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.97 - 4.22 = -1.25

Score Difference (Before): 5 (9.22)

Score Difference (End): 5 (7.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 38, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.9%

Win Probability (After): 66.2%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:14 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 13 at CCU 31) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon Rudolph - NIU 38, CCU 33 -0.94 68.3% -3.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 31

Started Drive at: NIU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 2.96 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): 5 (7.96)

Score Difference (End): 5 (7.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 38, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.3%

Win Probability (After): 64.8%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:07 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 13 at CCU 31) Clint Ratkovich run for 4 yds to the CCaro 27 - NIU 38, CCU 33 -0.37 65.3% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 27

Started Drive at: NIU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - 2.01 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): 5 (7.01)

Score Difference (End): 5 (6.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 38, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.3%

Win Probability (After): 63.5%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:51 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 9 at CCU 27) John Richardson 45 yd FG GOOD - NIU 41, CCU 33 1.34 63.8% 7.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 27

Started Drive at: NIU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.66 = 1.34

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.66)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.8%

Win Probability (After): 71.4%

Away Score: 38 (41) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 11:51 ESPN team id 324 (Kickoff at CCU 35) John Richardson kickoff for 62 yds , Fred Jackson return for 33 yds to the CCaro 36 - NIU 41, CCU 33 0.13 29.8% 0.9%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 64

Started Drive at: CCU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.51 - 0.38 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.62)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.8%

Win Probability (After): 30.7%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:39 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at CCU 36) Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Braydon Bennett - NIU 41, CCU 33 -0.50 32.5% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: CCU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - 1.34 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.66)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.5%

Win Probability (After): 30.3%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:39 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 10 at CCU 36) Timeout COASTL CAROLINA, clock 11:39 - NIU 41, CCU 33 0.00 29.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: CCU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - 0.84 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.16)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.8%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:17 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 10 at CCU 36) Shermari Jones run for 3 yds to the CCaro 39 - NIU 41, CCU 33 -0.86 29.7% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 61

Started Drive at: CCU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.17 - 1.03 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.97)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.7%

Win Probability (After): 28.6%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:48 ESPN team id 324 (3rd & 7 at CCU 39) Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 8 yds to the CCaro 47 for a 1ST down - NIU 41, CCU 33 1.74 28.5% 8.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 53

Started Drive at: CCU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 0.51 = 1.74

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.49)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-5.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.5%

Win Probability (After): 37.4%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:20 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at CCU 47) Shermari Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCaro 44 - NIU 41, CCU 33 -1.13 32.8% -3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 56

Started Drive at: CCU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.29 - 2.42 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.58)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-6.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.9%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:30 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 13 at CCU 44) Grayson McCall pass complete to Kameron Brown for 16 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST down - NIU 41, CCU 33 2.05 24.0% 14.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 40

Started Drive at: CCU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 1.23 = 2.05

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.77)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-4.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 33

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.0%

Win Probability (After): 38.1%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 33 (33)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:07 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at NIU 40) Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 40 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - NIU 41, CCU 39 2.79 32.0% 18.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 99

Started Drive at: CCU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 3.21 = 2.79

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-4.79)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 39

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.0%

Win Probability (After): 50.5%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 33 (39)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:07 ESPN team id 2459 (Kickoff at NIU 35) Kieran Colahan kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - NIU 41, CCU 39 0.00 58.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 1.08 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 2 (3.08)

Score Difference (End): 2 (3.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 39

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.2%

Win Probability (After): 58.2%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 39 (39)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:45 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 25) Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NoIll 27 - NIU 41, CCU 39 -0.45 58.3% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - 1.02 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): 2 (3.02)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 39

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.3%

Win Probability (After): 56.3%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 39 (39)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:10 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 8 at NIU 27) Trayvon Rudolph run for 7 yds to the NoIll 34 - NIU 41, CCU 39 0.50 57.0% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 66

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.04 - 0.54 = 0.50

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.54)

Score Difference (End): 2 (3.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 39

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.0%

Win Probability (After): 57.5%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 39 (39)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:20 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 1 at NIU 34) Rocky Lombardi run for no gain to the NoIll 34 - NIU 41, CCU 39 -1.53 58.6% -5.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.54 - 0.99 = -1.53

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.99)

Score Difference (End): 2 (1.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 39

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.6%

Win Probability (After): 53.2%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 39 (39)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:49 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 1 at NIU 34) Clint Ratkovich run for no gain to the NoIll 34 - NIU 41, CCU 39 -3.16 53.4% -20.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 34

Started Drive at: NIU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.64 - -0.48 = -3.16

Score Difference (Before): 2 (1.52)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.64)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NIU 41, CCU 39

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.4%

Win Probability (After): 32.7%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 39 (39)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 6:40 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at NIU 34) Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 34 yds for a TD, (Grayson McCall pass to Isaiah Likely for Two-Point Conversion) - NIU 41, CCU 47 4.33 67.4% 21.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99

Started Drive at: NIU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.67 = 4.33

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.67)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 1 play, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.4%

Win Probability (After): 88.4%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 39 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:40 ESPN team id 2459 (Kickoff at NIU 35) Kieran Colahan kickoff for 58 yds , Trayvon Rudolph return for 11 yds to the NoIll 18 - NIU 41, CCU 47 -1.24 13.9% -2.0%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 82

Started Drive at: NIU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.22 - 1.02 = -1.24

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.98)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.9%

Win Probability (After): 11.8%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:20 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 18) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 9 yds to the NoIll 27 - NIU 41, CCU 47 0.59 12.6% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 73

Started Drive at: NIU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.30 - 0.71 = 0.59

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.29)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.6%

Win Probability (After): 14.2%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:40 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 1 at NIU 27) Jay Ducker run for 4 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST down - NIU 41, CCU 47 0.63 14.6% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 69

Started Drive at: NIU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.49 - 0.86 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.14)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.6%

Win Probability (After): 13.9%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:25 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 31) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cole Tucker - NIU 41, CCU 47 -0.94 15.1% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: NIU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 1.32 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.68)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.1%

Win Probability (After): 13.6%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:21 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 10 at NIU 31) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trayvon Rudolph - NIU 41, CCU 47 -0.63 13.5% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: NIU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 0.68 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.32)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.5%

Win Probability (After): 11.0%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:13 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 10 at NIU 31) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 16 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST down - NIU 41, CCU 47 2.11 11.0% 5.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 53

Started Drive at: NIU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 0.07 = 2.11

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.93)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.0%

Win Probability (After): 16.6%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:45 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 47) Trayvon Rudolph sacked by Lance Boykin for a loss of 9 yards to the NoIll 38 - NIU 41, CCU 47 -1.34 17.3% -4.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 62

Started Drive at: NIU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - 2.19 = -1.34

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.81)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.3%

Win Probability (After): 13.1%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:55 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 19 at NIU 38) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for 5 yds to the NoIll 43 - NIU 41, CCU 47 -0.40 10.5% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 57

Started Drive at: NIU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.47 - 0.86 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.14)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.5%

Win Probability (After): 11.4%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:21 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 14 at NIU 43) Rocky Lombardi run for 17 yds to the CCaro 48 Rocky Lombardi fumbled, forced by Silas Kelly, recovered by CCaro Dre Pinckney , return for 8 yds to the CCaro 48 - NIU 41, CCU 47 -2.62 9.9% -5.4%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 52

Started Drive at: NIU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.09 - 0.53 = -2.62

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.47)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.09)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.9%

Win Probability (After): 4.5%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:19 ESPN team id 324 (1st & 10 at CCU 48) Grayson McCall run for a loss of 7 yards to the CCaro 41 - NIU 41, CCU 47 -0.96 96.1% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 59

Started Drive at: CCU 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 1.91 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.91)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 1 play, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.1%

Win Probability (After): 94.7%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:18 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 17 at CCU 41) Timeout NORTHERNIL, clock 03:18 - NIU 41, CCU 47 0.00 94.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59

Started Drive at: CCU 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 0.95 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.95)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 1 play, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.7%

Win Probability (After): 94.7%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:57 ESPN team id 324 (2nd & 17 at CCU 41) Grayson McCall pass complete to Isaiah Likely for 4 yds to the CCaro 45 - NIU 41, CCU 47 -0.29 95.0% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 55

Started Drive at: CCU 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.69 - 0.98 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.98)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.0%

Win Probability (After): 94.2%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:39 ESPN team id 324 (3rd & 13 at CCU 45) Grayson McCall run for 9 yds to the NoIll 46 - NIU 41, CCU 47 -0.29 95.2% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 46

Started Drive at: CCU 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - 0.53 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.53)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.2%

Win Probability (After): 93.6%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:38 ESPN team id 324 (4th & 4 at NIU 46) Timeout NORTHERNIL, clock 02:38 - NIU 41, CCU 47 0.00 93.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: CCU 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - 0.24 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.24)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.9%

Win Probability (After): 93.9%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:29 ESPN team id 324 (4th & 4 at NIU 46) Charles Ouverson punt for 33 yds, downed at the NoIll 13 - NIU 41, CCU 47 -0.67 94.3% -4.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 87

Started Drive at: CCU 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.45 - 0.22 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.22)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.55)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.3%

Win Probability (After): 89.7%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:25 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 13) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cole Tucker - NIU 41, CCU 47 -0.38 9.9% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 87

Started Drive at: NIU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.03 - 0.42 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.58)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.9%

Win Probability (After): 9.3%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:19 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 10 at NIU 13) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 11 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST down - NIU 41, CCU 47 0.73 9.4% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 76

Started Drive at: NIU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.98 - 0.26 = 0.73

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.74)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.4%

Win Probability (After): 10.9%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:05 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 24) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for 6 yds to the NoIll 30 - NIU 41, CCU 47 0.07 11.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 70

Started Drive at: NIU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 1.07 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.93)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.5%

Win Probability (After): 11.3%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:00 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 4 at NIU 30) Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST down - NIU 41, CCU 47 0.39 11.6% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 66

Started Drive at: NIU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - 1.07 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.93)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.6%

Win Probability (After): 12.2%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:46 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at NIU 34) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tristen Tewes - NIU 41, CCU 47 -0.19 11.2% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: NIU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 1.22 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.78)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.2%

Win Probability (After): 11.5%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:30 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 10 at NIU 34) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for 6 yds to the NoIll 40 - NIU 41, CCU 47 0.23 10.0% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 60

Started Drive at: NIU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - 0.67 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.33)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.0%

Win Probability (After): 10.6%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:27 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 4 at NIU 40) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Fabian McCray - NIU 41, CCU 47 -0.89 9.9% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: NIU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - 0.84 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.16)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.9%

Win Probability (After): 8.6%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:27 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 4 at NIU 40) Timeout COASTL CAROLINA, clock 01:27 - NIU 41, CCU 47 0.00 8.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: NIU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - -0.05 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.05)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.3%

Win Probability (After): 8.3%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:20 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 4 at NIU 40) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cole Tucker for 23 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST down - NIU 41, CCU 47 2.34 8.3% 7.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 37

Started Drive at: NIU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 0.13 = 2.34

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.87)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.3%

Win Probability (After): 15.7%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:10 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CCU 37) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Clint Ratkovich for 5 yds to the CCaro 32 - NIU 41, CCU 47 0.39 16.5% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 32

Started Drive at: NIU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 2.53 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.47)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.5%

Win Probability (After): 17.2%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:56 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 5 at CCU 32) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Miles Joiner - NIU 41, CCU 47 -0.46 17.5% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 32

Started Drive at: NIU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.45 - 2.91 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.09)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.5%

Win Probability (After): 16.4%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:47 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 5 at CCU 32) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jay Ducker for 15 yds to the CCaro 17 for a 1ST down - NIU 41, CCU 47 1.67 15.2% 8.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 17

Started Drive at: NIU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.12 - 2.45 = 1.67

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.55)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-1.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.2%

Win Probability (After): 23.5%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:28 ESPN team id 2459 (1st & 10 at CCU 17) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Messiah Travis for 7 yds to the CCaro 10 - NIU 41, CCU 47 0.69 21.4% 6.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 10

Started Drive at: NIU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.62 - 3.93 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.07)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-1.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.4%

Win Probability (After): 27.4%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:10 ESPN team id 2459 (2nd & 3 at CCU 10) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for 2 yds to the CCaro 8 - NIU 41, CCU 47 0.42 21.3% 4.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 8

Started Drive at: NIU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.50 - 4.08 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-1.92)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-1.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.3%

Win Probability (After): 26.1%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:07 ESPN team id 2459 (3rd & 1 at CCU 8) Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Cole Tucker - NIU 41, CCU 47 -1.30 19.7% -3.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8

Started Drive at: NIU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.42 - 3.73 = -1.30

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.27)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.7%

Win Probability (After): 15.8%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:02 ESPN team id 2459 (4th & 1 at CCU 8) Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Miles Joiner for 4 yds to the CCaro 4 for a 1ST down - NIU 41, CCU 47 2.88 15.5% -15.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 4

Started Drive at: NIU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.92 - 2.04 = 2.88

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.96)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-1.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: NIU 41, CCU 47

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 47 (47)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link