Western KY 59 @ Appalachian St 38

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 4.28 | Odds: WKU -1, O/U 67.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 98 ESPN team id 2026
Total Plays 8792
Total EPA 21.926.79
  Offensive EPA 24.5611.31
  Special Teams EPA -4.86-3.95
  Penalty EPA 2.21-3.79
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 0.013.22
Production ESPN team id 98 ESPN team id 2026
Scrimmage Plays 7578
  Yards 637637
  Yards/Play 8.498.17
  EPA 24.5611.31
  EPA/Play 0.330.14
Passes 48 (64%)39 (50%)
  Yards 422358
  Yards/Play 8.799.18
  EPA 18.936.02
  EPA/Play 0.390.15
Rushes 27 (36%)39 (50%)
  Yards 224289
  Yards/Play 8.307.41
  EPA 5.635.29
  EPA/Play 0.210.14
Rushing ESPN team id 98 ESPN team id 2026
Scrimmage Plays 7578
Rushes 27 (36%)39 (50%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 0 (0%)1 (3%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 0 (0%)1 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 7 (26%)3 (8%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 10 (37%)12 (31%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 14 (52%)23 (59%)
OL Line Yards 36.668.7
  Per Carry 1.361.76
Highlight Yards 126126
  Per Rush Opportunity 9.005.48
Explosiveness ESPN team id 98 ESPN team id 2026
Total Plays 8792
Scrimmage Plays 7578
Explosive Plays 9 (12%)10 (13%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 8 (17%)7 (18%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 1 (4%)3 (8%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -6.72-28.67
  EPA/Play -0.10-0.42
  When Passing -7.08-24.50
    EPA/Play -0.15-0.63
  When Rushing 0.35-4.18
    EPA/Play 0.01-0.12
Situational ESPN team id 98 ESPN team id 2026
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 37 (49%)36 (46%)
  When Passing 22 (46%)19 (49%)
  When Rushing 15 (56%)17 (44%)
  On Standard Downs 31 (51%)32 (59%)
  On Passing Downs 6 (43%)4 (17%)
  On Early Downs 29 (47%)29 (50%)
  On Late Downs 8 (62%)7 (35%)
  During "Middle 8" 6 (60%)5 (45%)
Early Downs 6258
  First Downs Created 16 (26%)15 (26%)
  EPA 16.8316.82
  EPA/Play 0.270.29
  Passes 39 (63%)24 (41%)
  Rushes 23 (37%)34 (59%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 17 (44%)14 (58%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 12 (52%)15 (44%)
"Middle 8" Plays 1011
  EPA 11.34-5.38
  EPA/play 1.13-0.49
  Passes 5 (50%)5 (45%)
  Rushes 5 (50%)6 (55%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 3 (60%)3 (60%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 3 (60%)2 (33%)
Drives ESPN team id 98 ESPN team id 2026
Total 1615
Avg Starting Field Position Own 27Own 30
Plays/Drive 7.157.06
Yards/Drive 54.7949.60
Available Yards % 75%71%
Defensive ESPN team id 98 ESPN team id 2026
Scrimmage Plays 7875
Stop Rate 44%18%
Havoc Plays Created 10 (13%)8 (11%)
  Passing 6 (15%)5 (10%)
  Rushing 4 (10%)3 (11%)
TFLs Generated 78
  Passing 45
  Rushing 33
Sacks Generated 4 (10%)1 (2%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 20
Fumbles Forced 20
Turnovers ESPN team id 98 ESPN team id 2026
Turnovers 14
  Fumbles 12
  Fumbles Lost 12
  Fumbles Recovered 00
  Interceptions 02
Turnover Margin 3-3
Expected Turnovers 1.51.9
Expected Turnover Margin 0.4-0.4
Turnover Luck (pts) 12.8-12.8
Special Teams ESPN team id 98 ESPN team id 2026
Total Plays 12 14
Total EPA -4.86 -3.95
  Field Goal EPA -1.72 0.42
  Punting EPA 0.09 -0.38
  Kickoff Return EPA -3.23 -3.99

Western Kentucky [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Bailey Zappe 33/47, 422 yds, 6 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 77.5 xQBR 8.79 0.39 18.93 46% 61.0%
Rush attempts
Noah Whittington 7 carries, 150 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 21.43 1.30 9.12 86% 17.0%
Kye Robichaux 11 carries, 67 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.09 0.26 2.81 55% 4.0%
Bailey Zappe 1 carry, 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 1.06 1.06 100% 3.0%
TEAM 2 carries, -4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -2.00 -0.11 -0.23 50% 0.0%
Adam Cofield 1 carry, 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.53 -0.53 0% -3.0%
Jakairi Moses 4 carries, 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.25 -0.55 -2.20 25% 0.0%
Drew Zaubi 1 carry, -3 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) -3.00 -4.40 -4.40 0% 0.0%
Pass targets
Jerreth Sterns 13 catches (19 targets), 184 yds, 3 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.15 0.68 12.86 58% 39.0%
Mitchell Tinsley 7 catches (10 targets), 103 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.71 0.54 5.40 50% 17.0%
Daewood Davis 2 catches (2 targets), 56 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 28.00 2.26 4.52 100% 6.0%
Dalvin Smith 2 catches (2 targets), 45 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 22.50 1.52 3.04 100% 5.0%
Kye Robichaux 1 catch (1 target), 33 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 33.00 1.54 1.54 100% 1.0%
Joey Beljan 4 catches (4 targets), 2 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.50 0.12 0.49 25% 6.0%
Adam Cofield 1 catch (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.07 -1.07 0% -3.0%
Malachi Corley 2 catches (2 targets), 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.50 -0.72 -1.43 0% -4.0%
Josh Sterns 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.67 -1.67 0% 0.0%
Noah Whittington 1 catch (2 targets), -2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -2.00 -0.87 -1.74 0% -4.0%

Appalachian State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Chase Brice 15/23, 317 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT, 4 Scks, 79.5 xQBR 11.74 0.37 10.03 52% 41.0%
Jacob Huesman 5/12, 41 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 0 Scks, 20.8 xQBR 3.42 -0.33 -4.01 42% 0.0%
Rush attempts
Anderson Castle 6 carries, 54 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 0.90 5.41 83% 0.0%
Nate Noel 3 carries, 50 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.67 1.15 3.45 33% 4.0%
Chase Brice 2 carries, 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.50 0.78 1.57 100% 6.0%
Daetrich Harrington 12 carries, 71 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.92 0.05 0.58 42% 3.0%
Jalen Virgil 1 carry, -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.00 -0.91 -0.91 0% -5.0%
Malik Williams 1 carry, 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 -1.01 -1.01 0% -3.0%
Jacob Huesman 1 carry, -4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -4.00 -1.48 -1.48 0% 0.0%
Camerun Peoples 13 carries, 101 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 7.77 -0.18 -2.32 31% -1.0%
Pass targets
Jalen Virgil 3 catches (4 targets), 75 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 25.00 1.90 7.60 75% 22.0%
Henry Pearson 2 catches (2 targets), 50 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 25.00 2.53 5.07 100% 4.0%
Christian Wells 4 catches (7 targets), 86 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 21.50 0.57 3.98 57% 6.0%
Daetrich Harrington 1 catch (1 target), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 2.96 2.96 100% 0.0%
Malik Williams 1 catch (3 targets), 36 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 36.00 0.94 2.83 33% 11.0%
Thomas Hennigan 5 catches (7 targets), 47 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.40 0.38 2.63 71% 0.0%
Christan Horn 1 catch (3 targets), 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.00 0.35 1.05 33% 4.0%
Dalton Stroman 1 catch (1 target), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 0.87 0.87 100% 0.0%
Cooper Hodges 1 catch (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.81 -0.81 0% 0.0%
Dashaun Davis 1 catch (4 targets), 33 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 33.00 -0.44 -1.76 25% 13.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q3 5:38 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 38) Chase Brice pass complete to Christian Wells for 62 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) - WKU 45, APP 31 7.22 2.3% 7.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -0.22 = 7.22

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.22)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 45, APP 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.3%

Win Probability (After): 9.5%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 24 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:11 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 4 at APP 40) Chase Brice pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 60 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) - WKU 14, APP 14 6.54 25.9% 18.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.46 = 6.54

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.9%

Win Probability (After): 44.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:11 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 25) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 75 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 14, APP 7 5.93 57.5% 18.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.07 = 5.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.07)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.5%

Win Probability (After): 76.0%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:49 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 20) Chase Brice sacked by Marcus Bragg for a loss of 15 yards to the AppSt 2 Chase Brice fumbled, forced by Marcus Bragg, recovered by WKent Darius Shipp , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds to the AppSt 2 - WKU 52, APP 31 -5.42 1.1% -0.8%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 2

Started Drive at: APP 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -6.13 - -0.72 = -5.42

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.72)

Score Difference (End): 21 (27.13)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:22 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 9 at WKU 16) Chase Brice pass intercepted Michael Pitts return for no gain to the WKent 15 - WKU 7, APP 0 -5.34 33.8% -11.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 85

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.91 - 3.43 = -5.34

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.57)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.91)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.8%

Win Probability (After): 22.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:49 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 14) Noah Whittington run for 86 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 38, APP 24 5.28 78.3% 11.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.72 = 5.28

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.72)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.3%

Win Probability (After): 89.6%

Away Score: 31 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:01 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 33) Camerun Peoples run for 19 yds to the WKent 14 Camerun Peoples fumbled, forced by A.J. Brathwaite Jr., recovered by WKent JaQues Evans - WKU 31, APP 24 -4.94 31.5% -9.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 86

Started Drive at: APP 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.61 - 3.33 = -4.94

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.67)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.61)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WKU 31, APP 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.5%

Win Probability (After): 21.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:10 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 7 at WKU 28) Drew Zaubi run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 25 Drew Zaubi fumbled, recovered by AppSt KeSean Brown - WKU 59, APP 38 -4.40 99.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 25

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.33 - 1.07 = -4.40

Score Difference (Before): 21 (22.07)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-17.67)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WKU 59, APP 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:58 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 10 at APP 25) Nate Noel run for 47 yds to the WKent 28 for a 1ST down - WKU 7, APP 0 4.40 27.7% 7.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 28

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.65 - -0.75 = 4.40

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.75)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.7%

Win Probability (After): 35.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:25 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 1 at WKU 36) Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 36 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) - WKU 7, APP 7 4.36 30.2% 14.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.64 = 4.36

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.36)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.2%

Win Probability (After): 44.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 1:11 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 4 at APP 40) Chase Brice pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 60 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) - WKU 14, APP 14 6.54 25.9% 18.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.46 = 6.54

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.9%

Win Probability (After): 44.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:11 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 25) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 75 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 14, APP 7 5.93 57.5% 18.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.07 = 5.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.07)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.5%

Win Probability (After): 76.0%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:25 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 1 at WKU 36) Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 36 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) - WKU 7, APP 7 4.36 30.2% 14.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.64 = 4.36

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.36)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.2%

Win Probability (After): 44.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:57 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 33) Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 33 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) - WKU 17, APP 21 3.24 45.2% 13.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.76 = 3.24

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.76)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 17, APP 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.2%

Win Probability (After): 58.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:29 ESPN team id 98 (3rd & 8 at APP 10) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 10 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 31, APP 24 3.36 66.9% 12.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.64 = 3.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.64)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 31, APP 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.4%

Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 9:22 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 9 at WKU 16) Chase Brice pass intercepted Michael Pitts return for no gain to the WKent 15 - WKU 7, APP 0 -5.34 33.8% -11.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 85

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.91 - 3.43 = -5.34

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.57)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.91)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.8%

Win Probability (After): 22.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:49 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 14) Noah Whittington run for 86 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 38, APP 24 5.28 78.3% 11.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.72 = 5.28

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.72)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.3%

Win Probability (After): 89.6%

Away Score: 31 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:54 ESPN team id 98 (3rd & Goal at APP 5) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joey Beljan for 5 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 24, APP 21 2.81 54.6% 10.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.19 = 2.81

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.19)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.6%

Win Probability (After): 64.6%

Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:14 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & Goal at APP 1) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 1 yd for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 7, APP 0 0.93 66.8% 10.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.07 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.07)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.8%

Win Probability (After): 76.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:01 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 33) Camerun Peoples run for 19 yds to the WKent 14 Camerun Peoples fumbled, forced by A.J. Brathwaite Jr., recovered by WKent JaQues Evans - WKU 31, APP 24 -4.94 31.5% -9.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 86

Started Drive at: APP 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.61 - 3.33 = -4.94

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.67)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.61)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WKU 31, APP 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.5%

Win Probability (After): 21.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 13:14 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & Goal at APP 1) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 1 yd for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 7, APP 0 0.93 66.8% 10.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.07 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.07)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.8%

Win Probability (After): 76.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:25 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 1 at WKU 36) Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 36 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) - WKU 7, APP 7 4.36 30.2% 14.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.64 = 4.36

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.36)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.2%

Win Probability (After): 44.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:11 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 25) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 75 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 14, APP 7 5.93 57.5% 18.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.07 = 5.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.07)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.5%

Win Probability (After): 76.0%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:11 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 4 at APP 40) Chase Brice pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 60 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) - WKU 14, APP 14 6.54 25.9% 18.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.46 = 6.54

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.9%

Win Probability (After): 44.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:48 ESPN team id 98 (4th & Goal at APP 6) Brayden Narveson 24 yd FG GOOD - WKU 17, APP 14 0.18 59.1% 8.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: WKU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.82 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.82)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 17, APP 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.1%

Win Probability (After): 67.2%

Away Score: 14 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 8:57 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 33) Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 33 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) - WKU 17, APP 21 3.24 45.2% 13.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.76 = 3.24

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.76)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 17, APP 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.2%

Win Probability (After): 58.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:54 ESPN team id 98 (3rd & Goal at APP 5) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joey Beljan for 5 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 24, APP 21 2.81 54.6% 10.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.19 = 2.81

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.19)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.6%

Win Probability (After): 64.6%

Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:55 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 4 at WKU 11) Chandler Staton 28 yd FG GOOD - WKU 24, APP 24 0.42 44.0% 7.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 11

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.58 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.42)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.0%

Win Probability (After): 51.7%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:29 ESPN team id 98 (3rd & 8 at APP 10) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 10 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 31, APP 24 3.36 66.9% 12.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.64 = 3.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.64)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 31, APP 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.4%

Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 12:49 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 14) Noah Whittington run for 86 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 38, APP 24 5.28 78.3% 11.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.72 = 5.28

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.72)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.3%

Win Probability (After): 89.6%

Away Score: 31 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:56 ESPN team id 98 (3rd & Goal at APP 2) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 2 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 45, APP 24 1.38 96.6% 1.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.62 = 1.38

Score Difference (Before): 14 (19.62)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 45, APP 24

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.6%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 38 (45) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:38 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 38) Chase Brice pass complete to Christian Wells for 62 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) - WKU 45, APP 31 7.22 2.3% 7.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -0.22 = 7.22

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.22)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 45, APP 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.3%

Win Probability (After): 9.5%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 24 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:43 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at APP 37) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 37 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 52, APP 31 2.71 95.5% 2.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.29 = 2.71

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.29)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.5%

Win Probability (After): 98.3%

Away Score: 45 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:40 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & Goal at APP 2) Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 59, APP 31 0.74 99.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.26 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): 21 (27.26)

Score Difference (End): 28 (28.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 52 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:55 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & Goal at WKU 9) Anderson Castle run for 9 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) - WKU 59, APP 38 2.09 0.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.91 = 2.09

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-23.09)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 38

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 14:52 ESPN team id 98 (Kickoff at WKU 35) Michael Hughes kickoff for 65 yds , Beanie Bishop return for 26 yds to the WKent 26 - WKU 0, APP 0 -1.30 51.5% -3.0%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 74

Started Drive at: WKU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.16 - 1.14 = -1.30

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 0, APP 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.5%

Win Probability (After): 48.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:48 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 26) Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth Sterns - WKU 0, APP 0 -0.36 58.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: WKU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.00 - 1.36 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.36)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 0, APP 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.4%

Win Probability (After): 58.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:44 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 10 at WKU 26) Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Noah Whittington - WKU 0, APP 0 -1.04 56.6% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: WKU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.57 - 0.47 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.47)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 0, APP 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.6%

Win Probability (After): 54.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:37 ESPN team id 98 (3rd & 10 at WKU 26) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 17 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST down - WKU 0, APP 0 2.96 53.9% 7.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 57

Started Drive at: WKU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.36 - -0.60 = 2.96

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.60)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 0, APP 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.9%

Win Probability (After): 61.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:22 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 43) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 17 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST down - WKU 0, APP 0 1.25 61.2% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 40

Started Drive at: WKU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.60 - 2.35 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 0, APP 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.2%

Win Probability (After): 63.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:16 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at APP 40) Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell Tinsley - WKU 0, APP 0 -0.65 63.2% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40

Started Drive at: WKU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.94 - 3.60 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.60)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 0, APP 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.2%

Win Probability (After): 62.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:07 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 10 at APP 40) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 39 yds to the AppSt 1 for a 1ST down - WKU 0, APP 0 3.27 62.4% 4.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 1

Started Drive at: WKU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.27 - 3.00 = 3.27

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.00)

Score Difference (End): 0 (6.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 0, APP 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.4%

Win Probability (After): 66.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:54 ESPN team id 98 (1st & Goal at APP 1) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joey Beljan for no gain to the AppSt 1 - WKU 0, APP 0 -0.41 67.4% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 1

Started Drive at: WKU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.88 - 6.29 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.29)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 0, APP 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.4%

Win Probability (After): 65.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:14 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & Goal at APP 1) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 1 yd for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 7, APP 0 0.93 66.8% 10.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.07 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.07)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.8%

Win Probability (After): 76.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:14 ESPN team id 2026 (Kickoff at APP 35) Cory Munson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - WKU 7, APP 0 0.00 28.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - -0.19 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.19)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.8%

Win Probability (After): 28.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:09 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 25) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalen Virgil - WKU 7, APP 0 -0.57 28.8% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.76 - -0.19 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.19)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.8%

Win Probability (After): 27.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:58 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 10 at APP 25) Nate Noel run for 47 yds to the WKent 28 for a 1ST down - WKU 7, APP 0 4.40 27.7% 7.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 28

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.65 - -0.75 = 4.40

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.75)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.7%

Win Probability (After): 35.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:30 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 28) Chase Brice pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 6 yds to the WKent 22 - WKU 7, APP 0 0.48 34.2% 3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 22

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.15 - 3.67 = 0.48

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.33)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.2%

Win Probability (After): 37.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:55 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 4 at WKU 22) Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the WKent 20 - WKU 7, APP 0 -0.37 36.5% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 20

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 4.16 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.84)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.5%

Win Probability (After): 34.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:22 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 2 at WKU 20) Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the WKent 19 - WKU 7, APP 0 -0.78 34.5% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 19

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.03 - 3.80 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.20)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.5%

Win Probability (After): 32.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:42 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 1 at WKU 19) Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the WKent 17 for a 1ST down - WKU 7, APP 0 1.60 31.8% 5.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 17

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.70 - 3.10 = 1.60

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.90)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.8%

Win Probability (After): 37.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:13 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 17) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Thomas Hennigan - WKU 7, APP 0 -0.58 36.6% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.13 - 4.71 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.29)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.6%

Win Probability (After): 35.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:45 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 10 at WKU 17) Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the WKent 16 - WKU 7, APP 0 -0.76 35.3% -2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 16

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.40 - 4.16 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.84)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.3%

Win Probability (After): 32.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:22 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 9 at WKU 16) Chase Brice pass intercepted Michael Pitts return for no gain to the WKent 15 - WKU 7, APP 0 -5.34 33.8% -11.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 85

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.91 - 3.43 = -5.34

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.57)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.91)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.8%

Win Probability (After): 22.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:02 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 15) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 8 yds to the WKent 23 - WKU 7, APP 0 0.44 78.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 77

Started Drive at: WKU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 1.83 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.83)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.4%

Win Probability (After): 78.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:54 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 2 at WKU 23) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 5 yds to the WKent 28 for a 1ST down - WKU 7, APP 0 0.21 77.9% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 72

Started Drive at: WKU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 2.19 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.19)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:38 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 28) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 27 - WKU 7, APP 0 -0.97 78.5% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 73

Started Drive at: WKU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.42 - 2.39 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.39)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.5%

Win Probability (After): 77.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:40 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 11 at WKU 27) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joey Beljan for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 24 - WKU 7, APP 0 -1.33 77.5% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 76

Started Drive at: WKU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.09 - 1.42 = -1.33

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.42)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.5%

Win Probability (After): 75.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:47 ESPN team id 98 (3rd & 14 at WKU 24) Bailey Zappe sacked by Nick Hampton for a loss of 9 yards to the WKent 15 - WKU 7, APP 0 -1.43 75.1% -0.9%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 85

Started Drive at: WKU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.30 - 0.14 = -1.43

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.14)

Score Difference (End): 7 (5.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.1%

Win Probability (After): 74.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:23 ESPN team id 98 (4th & 23 at WKU 15) John Haggerty III punt for 62 yds , Thomas Hennigan returns for 14 yds to the AppSt 37 - WKU 7, APP 0 0.20 74.0% -1.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 63

Started Drive at: WKU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.02 - -1.22 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): 7 (5.78)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.98)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.0%

Win Probability (After): 72.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 6:00 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 37) Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the AppSt 39 - WKU 7, APP 0 -0.50 27.5% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 61

Started Drive at: APP 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - 1.02 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.98)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.5%

Win Probability (After): 26.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:20 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 8 at APP 39) Chase Brice pass complete to Cooper Hodges for no gain to the AppSt 39 - WKU 7, APP 0 -0.81 25.8% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: APP 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.30 - 0.51 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.49)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.8%

Win Probability (After): 25.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:04 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 8 at APP 39) Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 16 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST down - WKU 7, APP 0 2.60 24.8% 4.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 45

Started Drive at: APP 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - -0.31 = 2.60

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.31)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:27 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 45) Daetrich Harrington run for 7 yds to the WKent 38 - WKU 7, APP 0 0.56 29.6% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 38

Started Drive at: APP 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.85 - 2.29 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.71)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.6%

Win Probability (After): 30.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:49 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 3 at WKU 38) Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the WKent 36 - WKU 7, APP 0 -0.19 30.0% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 36

Started Drive at: APP 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.65 - 2.84 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.16)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.0%

Win Probability (After): 29.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:25 ESPN team id 98 (Kickoff at WKU 35) Michael Hughes kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - WKU 7, APP 0 0.00 78.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 2.17 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.17)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.9%

Win Probability (After): 78.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:25 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 1 at WKU 36) Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 36 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) - WKU 7, APP 7 4.36 30.2% 14.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.64 = 4.36

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.36)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 7, APP 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.2%

Win Probability (After): 44.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:11 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 25) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 75 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 14, APP 7 5.93 57.5% 18.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.07 = 5.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.07)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.5%

Win Probability (After): 76.0%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:03 ESPN team id 2026 (Kickoff at APP 35) Cory Munson kickoff for 59 yds , Jalen Virgil return for 18 yds to the AppSt 24 - WKU 14, APP 7 -1.19 26.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 76

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.21 - -0.02 = -1.19

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.02)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.4%

Win Probability (After): 26.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:57 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 24) Chase Brice pass complete to Christian Wells for 7 yds to the AppSt 31 - WKU 14, APP 7 0.73 26.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 69

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.59 - -0.14 = 0.73

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.14)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.5%

Win Probability (After): 26.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:30 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 3 at APP 31) Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST down - WKU 14, APP 7 0.36 26.4% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 66

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.93 - 0.57 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.43)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.4%

Win Probability (After): 26.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:03 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 34) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Christan Horn - WKU 14, APP 7 -0.67 26.9% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.31 - 0.98 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.02)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 26.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:53 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 10 at APP 34) Camerun Peoples run for 6 yds to the AppSt 40 - WKU 14, APP 7 -0.06 26.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 60

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.32 - 0.38 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.62)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.3%

Win Probability (After): 26.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:11 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 4 at APP 40) Chase Brice pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 60 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) - WKU 14, APP 14 6.54 25.9% 18.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.46 = 6.54

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.9%

Win Probability (After): 44.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:11 ESPN team id 98 (Kickoff at WKU 35) Michael Hughes kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - WKU 14, APP 14 0.00 57.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.16 - 1.16 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.4%

Win Probability (After): 57.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:04 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 25) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 4 yds to the WKent 29 - WKU 14, APP 14 -0.08 57.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 1.16 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.3%

Win Probability (After): 57.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:32 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 6 at WKU 29) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for no gain to the WKent 29 - WKU 14, APP 14 -1.03 56.4% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 1.08 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.4%

Win Probability (After): 53.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 98 (3rd & 6 at WKU 29) WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (Mitchell Tinsley) to the WKent 24 - WKU 14, APP 14 -1.06 51.7% -3.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 76

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.04 - 0.02 = -1.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.7%

Win Probability (After): 48.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:43 ESPN team id 98 (3rd & 11 at WKU 24) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Adam Cofield for no gain to the WKent 24 - WKU 14, APP 14 -1.07 49.3% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.07 - -1.00 = -1.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.00)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.3%

Win Probability (After): 46.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:02 ESPN team id 98 (4th & 11 at WKU 24) John Haggerty III punt for 58 yds , Malik Williams returns for 14 yds to the AppSt 32 - WKU 14, APP 14 0.24 47.7% 1.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 68

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.84 - -2.08 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.84)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.7%

Win Probability (After): 49.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:40 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 32) Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the AppSt 34 - WKU 14, APP 14 -0.51 51.6% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 66

Started Drive at: APP 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.30 - 1.81 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.81)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.6%

Win Probability (After): 49.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:25 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 8 at APP 34) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Malik Williams - WKU 14, APP 14 -0.89 49.4% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: APP 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.41 - 1.30 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.30)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.4%

Win Probability (After): 47.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:20 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 8 at APP 34) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Thomas Hennigan - WKU 14, APP 14 -1.48 47.8% -5.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: APP 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.06 - 0.42 = -1.48

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.42)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.8%

Win Probability (After): 42.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:09 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 8 at APP 34) Clayton Howell punt for 36 yds, downed at the WKent 30 - WKU 14, APP 14 -0.67 42.2% 0.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 70

Started Drive at: APP 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.72 - -1.06 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.72)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.2%

Win Probability (After): 42.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:02 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 30) Zappe, Bailey pass incomplete to Sterns, Jerreth, PENALTY APP STATE holding (Smith, Kaiden) 10 yards to the WESTERNKY40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTERNKY. - WKU 14, APP 14 0.55 57.2% 1.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 60

Started Drive at: WKU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 1.74 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.74)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.2%

Win Probability (After): 58.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:53 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 40) Noah Whittington run for 15 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST down - WKU 14, APP 14 0.99 58.4% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 45

Started Drive at: WKU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.24 - 2.25 = 0.99

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.25)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.4%

Win Probability (After): 59.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:39 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at APP 45) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 6 yds to the AppSt 39 - WKU 14, APP 14 0.27 59.8% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 39

Started Drive at: WKU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.52 - 3.25 = 0.27

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.25)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.8%

Win Probability (After): 60.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:11 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 4 at APP 39) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 33 yds to the AppSt 6 for a 1ST down - WKU 14, APP 14 2.16 60.4% 4.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 6

Started Drive at: WKU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.71 - 3.55 = 2.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.55)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.4%

Win Probability (After): 65.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:04 ESPN team id 98 (1st & Goal at APP 6) Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth Sterns - WKU 14, APP 14 -0.67 65.2% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: WKU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.02 - 5.69 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.69)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.2%

Win Probability (After): 63.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:59 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & Goal at APP 6) Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell Tinsley - WKU 14, APP 14 -0.93 64.2% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: WKU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.10 - 5.03 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.03)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.2%

Win Probability (After): 62.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:52 ESPN team id 98 (3rd & Goal at APP 6) Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth Sterns - WKU 14, APP 14 -1.30 62.2% -3.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: WKU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 4.12 = -1.30

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.12)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 14, APP 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.2%

Win Probability (After): 59.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:48 ESPN team id 98 (4th & Goal at APP 6) Brayden Narveson 24 yd FG GOOD - WKU 17, APP 14 0.18 59.1% 8.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: WKU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.82 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.82)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 17, APP 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.1%

Win Probability (After): 67.2%

Away Score: 14 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:40 ESPN team id 2026 (Kickoff at APP 35) Cory Munson kickoff for 65 yds , Jalen Virgil return for 39 yds to the AppSt 39 - WKU 17, APP 14 0.26 37.3% 1.8%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 61

Started Drive at: APP 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 0.81 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.19)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 17, APP 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.3%

Win Probability (After): 39.1%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:32 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 39) Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the AppSt 42 - WKU 17, APP 14 -0.32 39.2% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 58

Started Drive at: APP 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 1.92 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.08)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 17, APP 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.2%

Win Probability (After): 38.9%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:59 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 7 at APP 42) Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the AppSt 45 - WKU 17, APP 14 -0.24 38.7% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 55

Started Drive at: APP 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.40 - 1.64 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.36)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 17, APP 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.7%

Win Probability (After): 38.3%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:13 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 4 at APP 45) Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 10 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST down - WKU 17, APP 14 1.49 38.7% 3.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 45

Started Drive at: APP 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.96 - 1.48 = 1.49

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.52)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 17, APP 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.7%

Win Probability (After): 41.9%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:34 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 45) Daetrich Harrington run for 12 yds to the WKent 33 for a 1ST down - WKU 17, APP 14 0.86 42.4% 3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 33

Started Drive at: APP 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.82 - 2.96 = 0.86

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.04)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 17, APP 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.4%

Win Probability (After): 45.7%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:57 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 33) Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 33 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) - WKU 17, APP 21 3.24 45.2% 13.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.76 = 3.24

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.76)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 17, APP 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.2%

Win Probability (After): 58.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:57 ESPN team id 98 (Kickoff at WKU 35) Michael Hughes kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - WKU 17, APP 21 0.00 45.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 0.83 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.17)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 17, APP 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.3%

Win Probability (After): 45.3%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:52 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 25) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 6 yds to the WKent 31 - WKU 17, APP 21 0.26 45.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.06 - 0.80 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.20)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 17, APP 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.3%

Win Probability (After): 45.4%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:26 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 4 at WKU 31) Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST down - WKU 17, APP 21 0.71 45.8% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 63

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.67 - 0.96 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.04)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 17, APP 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.8%

Win Probability (After): 47.1%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:13 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 37) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 40 yds to the AppSt 23 for a 1ST down - WKU 17, APP 21 2.48 47.3% 7.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 23

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.17 - 1.69 = 2.48

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.31)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 17, APP 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.3%

Win Probability (After): 55.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:53 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at APP 23) Noah Whittington run for 8 yds to the AppSt 15 - WKU 17, APP 21 0.80 54.8% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 15

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.93 - 4.14 = 0.80

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.14)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 17, APP 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.8%

Win Probability (After): 56.6%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:47 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 2 at APP 15) Kye Robichaux run for 12 yds to the AppSt 3 for a 1ST down - WKU 17, APP 21 1.09 56.7% 2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 3

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.99 - 4.90 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.90)

Score Difference (End): -4 (1.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 17, APP 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.7%

Win Probability (After): 59.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:42 ESPN team id 98 (1st & Goal at APP 3) Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell Tinsley - WKU 17, APP 21 -0.43 59.4% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 3

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.59 - 6.02 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): -4 (2.02)

Score Difference (End): -4 (1.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 17, APP 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.4%

Win Probability (After): 59.0%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:32 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & Goal at APP 3) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 5 - WKU 17, APP 21 -1.41 58.5% -4.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 5

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.19 - 5.60 = -1.41

Score Difference (Before): -4 (1.60)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 17, APP 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.5%

Win Probability (After): 54.2%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:54 ESPN team id 98 (3rd & Goal at APP 5) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joey Beljan for 5 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 24, APP 21 2.81 54.6% 10.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.19 = 2.81

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.19)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.6%

Win Probability (After): 64.6%

Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:54 ESPN team id 2026 (Kickoff at APP 35) Cory Munson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - WKU 24, APP 21 0.00 36.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.87 - 0.87 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.13)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.2%

Win Probability (After): 36.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:35 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 25) Camerun Peoples run for 45 yds to the WKent 30 for a 1ST down - WKU 24, APP 21 2.98 36.9% 8.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 30

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 0.82 = 2.98

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.18)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.9%

Win Probability (After): 45.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:05 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 30) Chase Brice run for 6 yds to the WKent 24 - WKU 24, APP 21 0.27 45.5% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 24

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.03 - 3.76 = 0.27

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.76)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.5%

Win Probability (After): 46.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:32 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 4 at WKU 24) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Malik Williams - WKU 24, APP 21 -0.64 46.6% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.32 - 3.96 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.96)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.6%

Win Probability (After): 44.4%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:23 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 4 at WKU 24) Chase Brice run for 7 yds to the WKent 17 for a 1ST down - WKU 24, APP 21 1.29 45.3% 5.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 17

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.62 - 3.33 = 1.29

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.33)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.3%

Win Probability (After): 50.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:54 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 17) Timeout APPALACHIAN ST, clock 04:54 - WKU 24, APP 21 0.00 51.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.62 - 4.62 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.62)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.0%

Win Probability (After): 51.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:44 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 17) Jalen Virgil run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 18 - WKU 24, APP 21 -0.91 52.0% -5.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 18

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.72 - 4.62 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.62)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.0%

Win Probability (After): 47.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:05 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 11 at WKU 18) Camerun Peoples run for 2 yds to the WKent 16 - WKU 24, APP 21 -0.23 47.6% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 16

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 3.70 = -0.23

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.70)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.6%

Win Probability (After): 46.6%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:30 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 9 at WKU 16) Malik Williams run for 5 yds to the WKent 11 - WKU 24, APP 21 -1.01 46.9% -2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 11

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.56 - 3.56 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.56)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.9%

Win Probability (After): 44.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:55 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 4 at WKU 11) Chandler Staton 28 yd FG GOOD - WKU 24, APP 24 0.42 44.0% 7.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 11

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.58 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.42)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.0%

Win Probability (After): 51.7%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 21 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:47 ESPN team id 98 (Kickoff at WKU 35) Michael Hughes kickoff for 62 yds , Beanie Bishop return for 19 yds to the WKent 22 - WKU 24, APP 24 -0.99 59.0% -2.2%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 78

Started Drive at: WKU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.40 - 1.39 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.39)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.0%

Win Probability (After): 56.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:41 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 22) Noah Whittington run for 12 yds to the WKent 34 for a 1ST down - WKU 24, APP 24 0.60 58.5% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 66

Started Drive at: WKU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.86 - 1.26 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.26)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.5%

Win Probability (After): 59.8%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:09 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 34) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 9 yds to the WKent 43 - WKU 24, APP 24 0.46 59.2% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 57

Started Drive at: WKU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.46 - 2.01 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.2%

Win Probability (After): 60.4%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:40 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 1 at WKU 43) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Noah Whittington for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 41 - WKU 24, APP 24 -0.70 60.1% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 59

Started Drive at: WKU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.63 - 2.33 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.33)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.1%

Win Probability (After): 58.2%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:33 ESPN team id 98 (3rd & 3 at WKU 41) Bailey Zappe run for 4 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST down - WKU 24, APP 24 1.06 57.7% 2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 55

Started Drive at: WKU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 1.35 = 1.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.7%

Win Probability (After): 60.6%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:24 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 45) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 43 yds to the AppSt 12 for a 1ST down - WKU 24, APP 24 2.50 60.4% 7.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 12

Started Drive at: WKU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.66 - 2.16 = 2.50

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.4%

Win Probability (After): 67.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:54 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at APP 12) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 1 yd to the AppSt 11 - WKU 24, APP 24 -0.40 68.7% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 11

Started Drive at: WKU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.19 - 4.59 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.59)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.7%

Win Probability (After): 67.9%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:53 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 9 at APP 11) Timeout WESTRN KENTUCKY, clock 00:53 - WKU 24, APP 24 0.00 68.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 11

Started Drive at: WKU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.19 - 4.19 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.3%

Win Probability (After): 68.3%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:45 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 9 at APP 11) Adam Cofield run for 1 yd to the AppSt 10 - WKU 24, APP 24 -0.53 68.7% -2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 10

Started Drive at: WKU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.66 - 4.19 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 24, APP 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.7%

Win Probability (After): 66.0%

Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:29 ESPN team id 98 (3rd & 8 at APP 10) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 10 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 31, APP 24 3.36 66.9% 12.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.64 = 3.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.64)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 31, APP 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.4%

Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:29 ESPN team id 2026 (Kickoff at APP 35) Cory Munson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - WKU 31, APP 24 0.00 24.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.29 - 0.29 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.71)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 31, APP 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.6%

Win Probability (After): 24.6%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:23 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 25) Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 2 yds to the AppSt 27 - WKU 31, APP 24 0.11 24.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.32 - 0.20 = 0.11

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.80)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 31, APP 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.7%

Win Probability (After): 24.6%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:20 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 8 at APP 27) Chase Brice sacked by Brodric Martin for a loss of 6 yards to the AppSt 21 - WKU 31, APP 24 -0.09 24.8% -3.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 79

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.08 - 0.17 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.83)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 31, APP 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.8%

Win Probability (After): 21.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:17 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 14 at APP 21) Timeout APPALACHIAN ST, clock 00:17 - WKU 31, APP 24 0.00 21.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 79

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.08 - 0.08 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.92)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 31, APP 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.0%

Win Probability (After): 21.0%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:13 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 14 at APP 21) Daetrich Harrington run for 11 yds to the AppSt 32 - WKU 31, APP 24 -0.11 20.5% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 68

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.04 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.96)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 31, APP 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.5%

Win Probability (After): 21.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:11 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 3 at APP 32) Timeout WESTRN KENTUCKY, clock 00:11 - WKU 31, APP 24 0.00 21.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 68

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - -0.07 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.07)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 31, APP 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.2%

Win Probability (After): 21.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:11 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 3 at APP 32) APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (Caleb Spurlin) to the AppSt 27 - WKU 31, APP 24 -0.04 21.2% -1.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 73

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - -0.03 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.03)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 31, APP 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.2%

Win Probability (After): 20.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:05 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 8 at APP 27) Clayton Howell punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jerreth Sterns at the WKent 43 - WKU 31, APP 24 -0.32 19.8% -1.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 57

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.38 - -0.07 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.07)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.38)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WKU 31, APP 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.8%

Win Probability (After): 18.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:03 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 43) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 41 - WKU 31, APP 24 -0.28 81.1% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 59

Started Drive at: WKU 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - 0.28 = -0.28

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.28)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 31, APP 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.1%

Win Probability (After): 80.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 14:51 ESPN team id 2026 (Kickoff at APP 35) Cory Munson kickoff for 65 yds , Jalen Virgil return for 31 yds to the AppSt 31 - WKU 31, APP 24 -0.79 28.7% -2.6%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 69

Started Drive at: APP 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.89 - -0.10 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.10)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 31, APP 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.7%

Win Probability (After): 26.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:38 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 31) Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 4 yds to the AppSt 35 - WKU 31, APP 24 0.66 28.3% 1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 65

Started Drive at: APP 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 0.55 = 0.66

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.45)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 31, APP 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.3%

Win Probability (After): 30.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:51 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 6 at APP 35) Camerun Peoples run for 7 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST down - WKU 31, APP 24 0.74 27.7% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 58

Started Drive at: APP 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 0.52 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.48)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 31, APP 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.7%

Win Probability (After): 29.4%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:36 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 42) Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 25 yds to the WKent 33 for a 1ST down - WKU 31, APP 24 2.10 28.6% 3.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 33

Started Drive at: APP 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.38 - 1.28 = 2.10

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.72)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 31, APP 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.6%

Win Probability (After): 32.5%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:01 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 33) Camerun Peoples run for 19 yds to the WKent 14 Camerun Peoples fumbled, forced by A.J. Brathwaite Jr., recovered by WKent JaQues Evans - WKU 31, APP 24 -4.94 31.5% -9.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 86

Started Drive at: APP 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.61 - 3.33 = -4.94

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.67)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.61)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WKU 31, APP 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.5%

Win Probability (After): 21.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:49 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 14) Noah Whittington run for 86 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 38, APP 24 5.28 78.3% 11.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.72 = 5.28

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.72)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.3%

Win Probability (After): 89.6%

Away Score: 31 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:42 ESPN team id 2026 (Kickoff at APP 35) Cory Munson kickoff for 61 yds , Jalen Virgil return for 20 yds to the AppSt 24 - WKU 38, APP 24 -1.19 10.4% -0.5%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 76

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.75 - -0.56 = -1.19

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.56)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.4%

Win Probability (After): 9.9%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:31 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 24) Daetrich Harrington run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 20 - WKU 38, APP 24 -1.27 10.1% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 80

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.90 - -0.63 = -1.27

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.63)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.1%

Win Probability (After): 9.2%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:54 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 14 at APP 20) Daetrich Harrington run for 9 yds to the AppSt 29 - WKU 38, APP 24 0.35 9.2% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 71

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.49 - -1.83 = 0.35

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.83)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.2%

Win Probability (After): 9.6%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:00 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 5 at APP 29) Chase Brice sacked by Brodric Martin for a loss of 7 yards to the AppSt 22 - WKU 38, APP 24 -1.92 9.2% -1.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 78

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.42 - -1.50 = -1.92

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.50)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-17.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.2%

Win Probability (After): 7.6%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:34 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 12 at APP 22) Xavier Subotsch punt for 50 yds , Jerreth Sterns returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 27 - WKU 38, APP 24 0.61 7.0% 0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 73

Started Drive at: APP 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.78 - -3.39 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-17.39)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.78)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.0%

Win Probability (After): 7.2%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:25 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 27) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 8 yds to the WKent 35 - WKU 38, APP 24 0.49 93.4% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 65

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.37 - 2.88 = 0.49

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.88)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.4%

Win Probability (After): 92.6%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:54 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 2 at WKU 35) Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the WKent 35 - WKU 38, APP 24 -0.82 92.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 3.40 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.40)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.9%

Win Probability (After): 92.9%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:19 ESPN team id 98 (3rd & 2 at WKU 35) Kye Robichaux run for 9 yds to the WKent 44 for a 1ST down - WKU 38, APP 24 1.10 92.6% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 56

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.64 - 2.53 = 1.10

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.53)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.6%

Win Probability (After): 93.3%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:40 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 44) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 33 yds to the AppSt 23 for a 1ST down - WKU 38, APP 24 1.54 93.8% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 23

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.99 - 3.45 = 1.54

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.45)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.8%

Win Probability (After): 94.6%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:15 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at APP 23) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 3 yds to the AppSt 20 - WKU 38, APP 24 -0.30 95.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 20

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.63 - 4.94 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.94)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.1%

Win Probability (After): 94.7%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:47 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 7 at APP 20) Bailey Zappe pass incomplete - WKU 38, APP 24 -0.82 95.2% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.77 - 4.60 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.60)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.2%

Win Probability (After): 94.1%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:32 ESPN team id 98 (3rd & 7 at APP 20) Zappe, Bailey pass sacked for loss of 10 yards to the APP STATE30 (Ross, Nick), PENALTY APP STATE offside (Roof, T.D.) 5 yards to the APP STATE15, NO PLAY. - WKU 38, APP 24 1.10 94.3% 0.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 15

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.82 - 3.72 = 1.10

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.72)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.3%

Win Probability (After): 95.1%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:12 ESPN team id 98 (3rd & 2 at APP 15) Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the AppSt 12 for a 1ST down - WKU 38, APP 24 0.51 95.7% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 12

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.36 - 4.85 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.85)

Score Difference (End): 14 (19.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.3%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:52 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at APP 12) Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth Sterns - WKU 38, APP 24 -0.56 96.6% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 12

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.82 - 5.38 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 14 (19.38)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.6%

Win Probability (After): 95.9%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:46 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 10 at APP 12) Zappe, Bailey pass incomplete to Sterns, Jerreth, PENALTY APP STATE pass interference (Cone, Madison) 10 yards to the APP STATE2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTERNKY. - WKU 38, APP 24 1.63 96.2% 0.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 2

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.43 - 4.80 = 1.63

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.80)

Score Difference (End): 14 (20.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.8%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:40 ESPN team id 98 (1st & Goal at APP 2) Bailey Zappe pass incomplete - WKU 38, APP 24 -0.27 96.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 2

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.15 - 6.42 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): 14 (20.42)

Score Difference (End): 14 (20.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.8%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:34 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & Goal at APP 2) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joey Beljan for no gain to the AppSt 2 - WKU 38, APP 24 -0.58 96.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 2

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.58 - 6.16 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 14 (20.16)

Score Difference (End): 14 (19.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 38, APP 24

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 38 (38) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:56 ESPN team id 98 (3rd & Goal at APP 2) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 2 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 45, APP 24 1.38 96.6% 1.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.62 = 1.38

Score Difference (Before): 14 (19.62)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 45, APP 24

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.6%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 38 (45) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:48 ESPN team id 2026 (Kickoff at APP 35) Cory Munson kickoff for 65 yds , Jalen Virgil return for 38 yds to the AppSt 38 - WKU 45, APP 24 -0.12 2.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 62

Started Drive at: APP 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.45 - -1.33 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-22.33)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-22.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 45, APP 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.1%

Win Probability (After): 2.2%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:38 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 38) Chase Brice pass complete to Christian Wells for 62 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) - WKU 45, APP 31 7.22 2.3% 7.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -0.22 = 7.22

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.22)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 45, APP 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.3%

Win Probability (After): 9.5%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 24 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:28 ESPN team id 98 (Kickoff at WKU 35) Michael Hughes kickoff for 62 yds , Beanie Bishop return for 22 yds to the WKent 25 - WKU 45, APP 31 -0.95 93.9% -0.7%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.52 - 2.47 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.47)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 45, APP 31

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.9%

Win Probability (After): 93.2%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:19 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 25) Kye Robichaux run for 10 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST down - WKU 45, APP 31 0.63 94.1% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.12 - 2.49 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.49)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 45, APP 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.1%

Win Probability (After): 94.5%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:45 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 35) Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the WKent 39 - WKU 45, APP 31 -0.26 95.2% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 61

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.84 - 3.10 = -0.26

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.10)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 45, APP 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.2%

Win Probability (After): 94.6%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:15 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 6 at WKU 39) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 12 yds to the AppSt 49 for a 1ST down - WKU 45, APP 31 1.00 95.4% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 49

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.85 - 2.85 = 1.00

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.85)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 45, APP 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.4%

Win Probability (After): 95.7%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:38 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at APP 49) Bailey Zappe pass incomplete - WKU 45, APP 31 -0.47 95.9% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.30 - 3.78 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.78)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 45, APP 31

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.9%

Win Probability (After): 95.6%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:26 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 10 at APP 49) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 12 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST down - WKU 45, APP 31 0.88 95.2% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 37

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.20 - 3.32 = 0.88

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.32)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 45, APP 31

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.0%

Away Score: 45 (45) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:43 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at APP 37) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 37 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 52, APP 31 2.71 95.5% 2.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.29 = 2.71

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.29)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.5%

Win Probability (After): 98.3%

Away Score: 45 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:42 ESPN team id 2026 (Kickoff at APP 35) Cory Munson kickoff for 62 yds for a touchback - WKU 52, APP 31 0.02 1.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.28 - -1.30 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-22.30)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-22.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.8%

Win Probability (After): 1.8%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:33 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 25) Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 40 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST down - WKU 52, APP 31 3.58 1.8% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 35

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.26 - -1.32 = 3.58

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-22.32)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-18.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.8%

Win Probability (After): 2.3%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:50 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 35) Chase Brice pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 9 yds to the WKent 26 - WKU 52, APP 31 1.14 2.0% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 26

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.43 - 2.30 = 1.14

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-18.70)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-17.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.0%

Win Probability (After): 3.1%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:28 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 1 at WKU 26) Camerun Peoples run for 6 yds to the WKent 20 for a 1ST down - WKU 52, APP 31 0.38 2.1% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 20

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.84 - 3.46 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-17.54)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-17.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.1%

Win Probability (After): 2.5%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:11 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 20) Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 7 yds to the WKent 13 - WKU 52, APP 31 0.76 2.2% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 13

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.61 - 3.84 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-17.16)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-16.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.2%

Win Probability (After): 3.0%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:40 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 3 at WKU 13) Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the WKent 12 - WKU 52, APP 31 -0.49 2.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 12

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.10 - 4.59 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-16.41)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-16.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.4%

Win Probability (After): 2.3%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:18 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 2 at WKU 12) APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (Mike Evans) to the WKent 17 - WKU 52, APP 31 -1.12 2.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 17

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.96 - 4.08 = -1.12

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-16.92)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-18.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.2%

Win Probability (After): 2.0%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:01 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 7 at WKU 17) Chase Brice sacked by DeAngelo Malone for a loss of 10 yards to the WKent 27 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Chase Brice) to the WKent 27 - WKU 52, APP 31 -3.29 1.9% -0.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 27

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.33 - 2.89 = -3.29

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-18.04)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-21.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.9%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:53 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 17 at WKU 27) Chase Brice pass incomplete to Christian Wells - WKU 52, APP 31 -3.29 1.2% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 73

Started Drive at: APP 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.80 - -0.50 = -3.29

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.50)

Score Difference (End): 21 (24.80)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:32 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 27) Noah Whittington run for no gain to the WKent 27 - WKU 52, APP 31 -0.65 99.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 3.84 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 21 (24.84)

Score Difference (End): 21 (24.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:47 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 10 at WKU 27) Noah Whittington run for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - WKU 52, APP 31 1.40 99.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 50

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 3.09 = 1.40

Score Difference (Before): 21 (24.09)

Score Difference (End): 21 (25.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:29 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at 50) Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth Sterns - WKU 52, APP 31 -0.52 99.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.88 - 4.40 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 21 (25.40)

Score Difference (End): 21 (24.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:21 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 10 at 50) Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the AppSt 44 - WKU 52, APP 31 -0.25 99.4% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 44

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.60 - 3.84 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): 21 (24.84)

Score Difference (End): 21 (24.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:49 ESPN team id 98 (3rd & 4 at APP 44) Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 4 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST down - WKU 52, APP 31 1.32 99.5% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 40

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.74 - 3.42 = 1.32

Score Difference (Before): 21 (24.42)

Score Difference (End): 21 (25.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:56 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at APP 40) Kye Robichaux run for 15 yds to the AppSt 25 for a 1ST down - WKU 52, APP 31 0.55 99.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 25

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.18 - 4.63 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): 21 (25.63)

Score Difference (End): 21 (26.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:33 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at APP 25) Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the AppSt 22 - WKU 52, APP 31 -0.23 99.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 22

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.89 - 5.12 = -0.23

Score Difference (Before): 21 (26.12)

Score Difference (End): 21 (25.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:49 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 7 at APP 22) Jakairi Moses run for 2 yds to the AppSt 20 - WKU 52, APP 31 -0.50 99.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 20

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 4.84 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 21 (25.84)

Score Difference (End): 21 (25.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:06 ESPN team id 98 (3rd & 5 at APP 20) Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Josh Sterns - WKU 52, APP 31 -1.67 99.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.64 - 4.32 = -1.67

Score Difference (Before): 21 (25.32)

Score Difference (End): 21 (23.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:00 ESPN team id 98 (4th & 5 at APP 20) Brayden Narveson 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Steven Jones Jr. - WKU 52, APP 31 -1.90 99.6% -0.8%

Play Type: Blocked Field Goal

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 80

Started Drive at: WKU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.72 - 2.62 = -1.90

Score Difference (Before): 21 (23.62)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-21.72)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 98.7%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:49 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 20) Chase Brice sacked by Marcus Bragg for a loss of 15 yards to the AppSt 2 Chase Brice fumbled, forced by Marcus Bragg, recovered by WKent Darius Shipp , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds to the AppSt 2 - WKU 52, APP 31 -5.42 1.1% -0.8%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 2

Started Drive at: APP 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -6.13 - -0.72 = -5.42

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.72)

Score Difference (End): 21 (27.13)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:45 ESPN team id 98 (1st & Goal at APP 2) Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth Sterns - WKU 52, APP 31 -0.23 99.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 2

Started Drive at: APP 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.25 - 6.49 = -0.23

Score Difference (Before): 21 (27.49)

Score Difference (End): 21 (27.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 52, APP 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 52 (52) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:40 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & Goal at APP 2) Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) - WKU 59, APP 31 0.74 99.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.26 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): 21 (27.26)

Score Difference (End): 28 (28.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 52 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:33 ESPN team id 2026 (Kickoff at APP 35) Cory Munson kickoff for 59 yds , Thomas Hennigan return for 17 yds to the AppSt 23 - WKU 59, APP 31 -0.98 0.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 77

Started Drive at: APP 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.40 - -0.42 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-28.42)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-29.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:21 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 23) Daetrich Harrington run for 5 yds to the AppSt 28 - WKU 59, APP 31 -0.05 0.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 72

Started Drive at: APP 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.49 - -0.44 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-28.44)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-28.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:05 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 5 at APP 28) Jacob Huesman pass complete to Christian Wells for 8 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST down - WKU 59, APP 31 0.82 0.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 64

Started Drive at: APP 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.41 - -0.41 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-28.41)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-27.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:50 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 36) Daetrich Harrington run for 15 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST down - WKU 59, APP 31 1.17 0.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 49

Started Drive at: APP 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.61 - 0.44 = 1.17

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-27.56)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-26.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:45 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 49) Jacob Huesman pass incomplete to Christian Wells - WKU 59, APP 31 -0.59 0.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: APP 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.96 - 1.55 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-26.45)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-27.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:37 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 10 at WKU 49) Daetrich Harrington run for 5 yds to the WKent 44 - WKU 59, APP 31 -0.23 0.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 44

Started Drive at: APP 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.72 - 0.95 = -0.23

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-27.05)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-27.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:08 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 5 at WKU 44) Jacob Huesman pass incomplete to Christian Wells - WKU 59, APP 31 -1.79 0.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: APP 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.89 - 0.89 = -1.79

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-27.11)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-28.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:01 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 5 at WKU 44) Jacob Huesman pass complete to Daetrich Harrington for 5 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST down - WKU 59, APP 31 2.96 0.2% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 39

Started Drive at: APP 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.32 - -0.64 = 2.96

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-28.64)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-25.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 7:39 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 39) Jacob Huesman pass complete to Christian Wells for 9 yds to the WKent 30 - WKU 59, APP 31 0.89 0.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 30

Started Drive at: APP 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 2.22 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-25.78)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-24.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:17 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 1 at WKU 30) Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the WKent 26 for a 1ST down - WKU 59, APP 31 -0.24 0.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 26

Started Drive at: APP 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.97 - 3.21 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-24.79)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-25.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:47 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 26) Jacob Huesman pass incomplete to Christan Horn - WKU 59, APP 31 -0.89 0.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: APP 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.53 - 3.41 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-24.59)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-25.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:22 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 10 at WKU 26) Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the WKent 22 - WKU 59, APP 31 -0.39 0.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 22

Started Drive at: APP 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.53 - 2.92 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-25.08)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-25.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:08 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 6 at WKU 22) Jacob Huesman pass incomplete to Dashaun Davis - WKU 59, APP 31 -1.43 0.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: APP 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.05 - 2.49 = -1.43

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-25.51)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-26.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:03 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 6 at WKU 22) Jacob Huesman pass incomplete to Dashaun Davis - WKU 59, APP 31 -2.58 0.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 78

Started Drive at: APP 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.53 - 1.06 = -2.58

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-26.94)

Score Difference (End): 28 (29.53)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:50 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 23) Jakairi Moses run for 7 yds to the WKent 30 - WKU 59, APP 31 0.22 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 70

Started Drive at: WKU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.66 - 1.45 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): 28 (29.45)

Score Difference (End): 28 (29.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:36 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 3 at WKU 30) Jakairi Moses run for no gain to the WKent 30 - WKU 59, APP 31 -0.64 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: WKU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.88 - 1.52 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 28 (29.52)

Score Difference (End): 28 (28.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:00 ESPN team id 98 (3rd & 3 at WKU 30) Jakairi Moses run for no gain to the WKent 30 - WKU 59, APP 31 -1.28 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: WKU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.34 - 0.95 = -1.28

Score Difference (Before): 28 (28.95)

Score Difference (End): 28 (27.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:20 ESPN team id 98 (4th & 3 at WKU 30) Timeout WESTRN KENTUCKY, clock 04:20 - WKU 59, APP 31 0.00 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: WKU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.34 - -0.34 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 28 (27.66)

Score Difference (End): 28 (27.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:12 ESPN team id 98 (4th & 3 at WKU 30) John Haggerty III punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 31 - WKU 59, APP 31 -0.35 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 69

Started Drive at: WKU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.78 - -0.43 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): 28 (27.57)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-27.22)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:06 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 31) Anderson Castle run for 11 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST down - WKU 59, APP 31 0.68 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 58

Started Drive at: APP 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - 0.68 = 0.68

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-27.32)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-26.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:49 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at APP 42) Anderson Castle run for 7 yds to the AppSt 49 - WKU 59, APP 31 0.25 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 51

Started Drive at: APP 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.72 - 1.47 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-26.53)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-26.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:27 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 3 at APP 49) Jacob Huesman pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 10 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST down - WKU 59, APP 31 0.87 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 41

Started Drive at: APP 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.53 - 1.67 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-26.33)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-25.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:02 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 41) Castle, Anderson rush for 2 yards to the WESTERNKY39, PENALTY WESTERNKY substitution infraction 5 yards to the WESTERNKY36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN APP STATE. - WKU 59, APP 31 0.58 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 36

Started Drive at: APP 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.91 - 2.33 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-25.67)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-25.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:45 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 36) Anderson Castle run for 3 yds to the WKent 33 - WKU 59, APP 31 -0.07 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 33

Started Drive at: APP 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.69 - 2.76 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-25.24)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-25.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:20 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 7 at WKU 33) Anderson Castle run for 10 yds to the WKent 23 for a 1ST down - WKU 59, APP 31 1.09 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 23

Started Drive at: APP 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.67 - 2.59 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-25.41)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-24.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:13 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 23) Anderson Castle run for 14 yds to the WKent 9 for a 1ST down - WKU 59, APP 31 1.38 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 9

Started Drive at: APP 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.00 - 3.63 = 1.38

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-24.37)

Score Difference (End): -28 (-23.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 31

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:55 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & Goal at WKU 9) Anderson Castle run for 9 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) - WKU 59, APP 38 2.09 0.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: APP 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.91 = 2.09

Score Difference (Before): -28 (-23.09)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 38

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 31 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:55 ESPN team id 98 (Kickoff at WKU 35) Michael Hughes kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - WKU 59, APP 38 0.00 99.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.84 - 1.84 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 21 (22.84)

Score Difference (End): 21 (22.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 38

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:47 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 25) Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the WKent 28 - WKU 59, APP 38 -0.28 99.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 72

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.41 - 1.69 = -0.28

Score Difference (Before): 21 (22.69)

Score Difference (End): 21 (22.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:10 ESPN team id 98 (2nd & 7 at WKU 28) Drew Zaubi run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 25 Drew Zaubi fumbled, recovered by AppSt KeSean Brown - WKU 59, APP 38 -4.40 99.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 25

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.33 - 1.07 = -4.40

Score Difference (Before): 21 (22.07)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-17.67)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WKU 59, APP 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:05 ESPN team id 2026 (1st & 10 at WKU 25) Jacob Huesman pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 9 yds to the WKent 16 - WKU 59, APP 38 1.06 0.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 16

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.38 - 3.32 = 1.06

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-17.68)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-16.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:50 ESPN team id 2026 (2nd & 1 at WKU 16) Jacob Huesman run for a loss of 4 yards to the WKent 20 - WKU 59, APP 38 -1.48 0.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 20

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.89 - 4.37 = -1.48

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-16.63)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-18.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:32 ESPN team id 2026 (3rd & 5 at WKU 20) Jacob Huesman pass incomplete to Dashaun Davis - WKU 59, APP 38 -0.99 0.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.92 - 2.91 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-18.09)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-19.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:21 ESPN team id 2026 (4th & 5 at WKU 20) Jacob Huesman pass intercepted Miguel Edwards return for 10 yds to the WKent 16 - WKU 59, APP 38 -2.33 0.5% -0.4%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 84

Started Drive at: WKU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.41 - 1.92 = -2.33

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-19.08)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.41)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: WKU 59, APP 38

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:10 ESPN team id 98 (1st & 10 at WKU 16) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 14 - WKU 59, APP 38 0.05 99.7% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 86

Started Drive at: WKU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.16 - 0.11 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): 21 (21.11)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: WKU 59, APP 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 59 (59) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3