Louisiana 36 @ Marshall 21

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 5.19 | Odds: UL -4, O/U 55.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 309 ESPN team id 276
Total Plays 9571
Total EPA 6.46-11.43
  Offensive EPA 6.33-7.68
  Special Teams EPA -3.16-2.47
  Penalty EPA 1.51-0.79
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 1.78-0.49
Production ESPN team id 309 ESPN team id 276
Scrimmage Plays 8356
  Yards 498292
  Yards/Play 6.005.21
  EPA 6.33-7.68
  EPA/Play 0.08-0.14
Passes 34 (41%)28 (50%)
  Yards 27899
  Yards/Play 8.183.54
  EPA 5.50-15.53
  EPA/Play 0.16-0.55
Rushes 49 (59%)28 (50%)
  Yards 232201
  Yards/Play 4.737.18
  EPA 0.847.85
  EPA/Play 0.020.28
Rushing ESPN team id 309 ESPN team id 276
Scrimmage Plays 8356
Rushes 49 (59%)28 (50%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 1 (2%)3 (11%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 1 (100%)2 (67%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 13 (27%)5 (18%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 20 (41%)8 (29%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 22 (45%)15 (54%)
OL Line Yards 66.423.1
  Per Carry 1.360.82
Highlight Yards 88.5115
  Per Rush Opportunity 4.027.67
Explosiveness ESPN team id 309 ESPN team id 276
Total Plays 9571
Scrimmage Plays 8356
Explosive Plays 5 (6%)6 (11%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 3 (9%)1 (4%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 2 (4%)5 (18%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -11.93-25.92
  EPA/Play -0.15-0.52
  When Passing -6.95-17.94
    EPA/Play -0.20-0.64
  When Rushing -4.98-7.98
    EPA/Play -0.11-0.35
Situational ESPN team id 309 ESPN team id 276
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 37 (45%)20 (36%)
  When Passing 15 (44%)8 (29%)
  When Rushing 22 (45%)12 (43%)
  On Standard Downs 24 (43%)15 (39%)
  On Passing Downs 13 (48%)5 (28%)
  On Early Downs 28 (43%)15 (35%)
  On Late Downs 9 (50%)5 (38%)
  During "Middle 8" 4 (29%)3 (43%)
Early Downs 6543
  First Downs Created 15 (23%)9 (21%)
  EPA 5.45-4.22
  EPA/Play 0.08-0.10
  Passes 24 (37%)23 (53%)
  Rushes 41 (63%)20 (47%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 11 (46%)7 (30%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 17 (41%)8 (40%)
"Middle 8" Plays 147
  EPA 1.01-5.44
  EPA/play 0.07-0.78
  Passes 6 (43%)5 (71%)
  Rushes 8 (57%)2 (29%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 3 (50%)2 (40%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 1 (13%)1 (50%)
Drives ESPN team id 309 ESPN team id 276
Total 1413
Avg Starting Field Position Own 30Own 28
Plays/Drive 8.126.04
Yards/Drive 49.9826.71
Available Yards % 72%37%
Defensive ESPN team id 309 ESPN team id 276
Scrimmage Plays 5683
Stop Rate 59%30%
Havoc Plays Created 9 (16%)14 (17%)
  Passing 5 (18%)3 (9%)
  Rushing 4 (14%)11 (22%)
TFLs Generated 814
  Passing 43
  Rushing 411
Sacks Generated 2 (7%)2 (6%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 10
Fumbles Forced 20
Turnovers ESPN team id 309 ESPN team id 276
Turnovers 02
  Fumbles 02
  Fumbles Lost 01
  Fumbles Recovered 01
  Interceptions 01
Turnover Margin 2-2
Expected Turnovers 1.01.2
Expected Turnover Margin 0.2-0.2
Turnover Luck (pts) 8.9-8.9
Special Teams ESPN team id 309 ESPN team id 276
Total Plays 12 15
Total EPA -3.16 -2.47
  Field Goal EPA 1.68 0
  Punting EPA -3.81 -2.56
  Kickoff Return EPA -1.03 0.09

Louisiana [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Levi Lewis 19/31, 270 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 Scks, 54.5 xQBR 8.18 0.16 5.40 42% 27.0%
Chandler Fields 1/1, 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 59.2 xQBR 8.00 0.10 0.10 100% 0.0%
Rush attempts
Emani Bailey 17 carries, 94 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.53 0.29 4.99 59% 7.0%
Levi Lewis 10 carries, 86 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.60 0.07 0.70 40% 0.0%
T.J. Wisham 1 carry, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.76 -0.76 0% -1.0%
TEAM 2 carries, -2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.00 -0.79 -1.57 0% 0.0%
Montrell Johnson 19 carries, 54 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.84 -0.13 -2.51 42% -7.0%
Pass targets
Michael Jefferson 3 catches (4 targets), 108 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 36.00 1.85 7.38 75% 32.0%
Jacob Bernard 2 catches (2 targets), 59 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 29.50 2.61 5.22 100% 14.0%
John Stephens Jr. 3 catches (4 targets), 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 0.73 2.92 75% 4.0%
Emani Bailey 2 catches (3 targets), 26 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.00 0.86 2.58 67% 2.0%
Montrell Johnson 1 catch (1 target), 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.45 -0.45 0% -2.0%
Kaleb Carter 2 catches (2 targets), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 -0.37 -0.73 0% -2.0%
Pearse Migl 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.73 -0.73 0% -2.0%
Errol Rogers Jr. 2 catches (2 targets), 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.40 -0.81 50% -3.0%
Kyren Lacy 1 catch (5 targets), 9 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 -0.30 -1.49 20% 4.0%
Dontae Fleming 4 catches (7 targets), 27 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.75 -0.69 -4.84 43% -10.0%

Marshall [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Grant Wells 15/26, 99 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 2 Scks, 18.2 xQBR 3.54 -0.55 -15.53 29% -28.0%
Rush attempts
Rasheen Ali 20 carries, 160 yds, 3 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 0.41 8.13 45% 25.0%
Willie Johnson 2 carries, 21 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.50 0.57 1.14 50% 2.0%
Grant Wells 2 carries, 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.16 -0.32 0% -3.0%
Sheldon Evans 4 carries, 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.27 -1.10 50% 0.0%
Pass targets
Shadeed Ahmed 2 catches (3 targets), 27 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.50 0.73 2.19 67% 5.0%
Xavier Gaines 1 catch (2 targets), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.04 0.08 50% -2.0%
Jayden Harrison 1 catch (1 target), 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 -0.09 -0.09 0% 1.0%
Corey Gammage 9 catches (9 targets), 50 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.56 -0.06 -0.54 56% 4.0%
Talik Keaton 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.55 -0.55 0% -2.0%
Willie Johnson 0 catches (3 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.59 -1.77 0% -2.0%
Rasheen Ali 1 catch (2 targets), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 -1.26 -2.51 0% -6.0%
Devin Miller 1 catch (3 targets), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.93 -2.80 0% -9.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 0:50 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 10 at MRSH 37) Rasheen Ali 63 Yd Run (Shane Ciucci Kick) - UL 10, MRSH 7 6.35 16.5% 14.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 99

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.65 = 6.35

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.35)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.5%

Win Probability (After): 31.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:09 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 13 at UL 40) Levi Lewis pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 48 yds to the Marsh 12 for a 1ST down - UL 16, MRSH 21 4.65 34.3% 19.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 12

Started Drive at: UL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.10 - 0.45 = 4.65

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.55)

Score Difference (End): -5 (0.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.3%

Win Probability (After): 54.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:05 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 1 at MRSH 12) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Dontae Fleming - UL 16, MRSH 14 -4.08 72.9% -9.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 88

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.22 - 3.86 = -4.08

Score Difference (Before): 2 (5.86)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.78)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.9%

Win Probability (After): 63.2%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:54 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 8 at UL 29) Levi Lewis pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 54 yds to the Marsh 17 for a 1ST down - UL 22, MRSH 21 4.00 65.2% 15.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 17

Started Drive at: UL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.60 - 0.61 = 4.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.61)

Score Difference (End): 1 (5.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 22, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.8%

Away Score: 22 (22) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:43 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at MRSH 46) Levi Lewis pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 42 yds to the Marsh 4 for a 1ST down - UL 13, MRSH 14 3.80 61.9% 9.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 4

Started Drive at: MRSH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.47 - 1.67 = 3.80

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.67)

Score Difference (End): -1 (4.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 13, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.9%

Win Probability (After): 71.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:22 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 10 at MRSH 38) Grant Wells sacked by Andre Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the Marsh 31 Grant Wells fumbled, forced by Andre Jones, recovered by LaLaf Kris Moncrief , return for 0 yards - UL 36, MRSH 21 -3.69 0.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 31

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.84 - 0.85 = -3.69

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-14.15)

Score Difference (End): 15 (17.84)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 36, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 5:28 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 2 at UL 25) Levi Lewis run for 55 yds to the Marsh 20 for a 1ST down - UL 10, MRSH 14 3.45 52.5% 10.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 20

Started Drive at: UL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 0.84 = 3.45

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.16)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.5%

Win Probability (After): 62.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:43 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 3 at UL 49) Grant Wells pass intercepted Bralen Trahan return for 26 yds to the Marsh 46 - UL 13, MRSH 14 -3.27 53.1% -14.7%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 46

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.95 - 1.32 = -3.27

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.32)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.95)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 13, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.1%

Win Probability (After): 38.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:01 ESPN team id 276 (3rd & Goal at UL 9) Rasheen Ali 9 Yd Run (Shane Ciucci Kick) - UL 16, MRSH 21 3.14 51.5% 12.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: MRSH 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.86 = 3.14

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.86)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.5%

Win Probability (After): 63.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:40 ESPN team id 276 (3rd & 3 at MRSH 30) Rasheen Ali run for a loss of 18 yards to the Marsh 12 Rasheen Ali fumbled, forced by Trey Amos, recovered by Marsh - UL 16, MRSH 14 -3.06 34.7% -6.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 88

Started Drive at: MRSH 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.73 - 0.33 = -3.06

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.67)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-4.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.7%

Win Probability (After): 28.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 10:09 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 13 at UL 40) Levi Lewis pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 48 yds to the Marsh 12 for a 1ST down - UL 16, MRSH 21 4.65 34.3% 19.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 12

Started Drive at: UL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.10 - 0.45 = 4.65

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.55)

Score Difference (End): -5 (0.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.3%

Win Probability (After): 54.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:54 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 8 at UL 29) Levi Lewis pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 54 yds to the Marsh 17 for a 1ST down - UL 22, MRSH 21 4.00 65.2% 15.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 17

Started Drive at: UL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.60 - 0.61 = 4.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.61)

Score Difference (End): 1 (5.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 22, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.8%

Away Score: 22 (22) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 309 (4th & Goal at MRSH 7) Nate Snyder 24 Yd Field Goal - UL 16, MRSH 14 0.25 61.3% 15.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 7

Started Drive at: MRSH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.75 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.75)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.3%

Win Probability (After): 76.3%

Away Score: 13 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:50 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 10 at MRSH 37) Rasheen Ali 63 Yd Run (Shane Ciucci Kick) - UL 10, MRSH 7 6.35 16.5% 14.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 99

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.65 = 6.35

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.35)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.5%

Win Probability (After): 31.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:43 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 3 at UL 49) Grant Wells pass intercepted Bralen Trahan return for 26 yds to the Marsh 46 - UL 13, MRSH 14 -3.27 53.1% -14.7%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 46

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.95 - 1.32 = -3.27

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.32)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.95)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 13, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.1%

Win Probability (After): 38.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:01 ESPN team id 276 (3rd & Goal at UL 9) Rasheen Ali 9 Yd Run (Shane Ciucci Kick) - UL 16, MRSH 21 3.14 51.5% 12.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: MRSH 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.86 = 3.14

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.86)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.5%

Win Probability (After): 63.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:20 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 2 at MRSH 4) Emani Bailey 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) - UL 22, MRSH 21 0.91 50.5% 11.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 5.09 = 0.91

Score Difference (Before): -5 (0.09)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 22, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.5%

Win Probability (After): 61.5%

Away Score: 16 (22) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:28 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 2 at UL 25) Levi Lewis run for 55 yds to the Marsh 20 for a 1ST down - UL 10, MRSH 14 3.45 52.5% 10.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 20

Started Drive at: UL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 0.84 = 3.45

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.16)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.5%

Win Probability (After): 62.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:05 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 1 at MRSH 12) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Dontae Fleming - UL 16, MRSH 14 -4.08 72.9% -9.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 88

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.22 - 3.86 = -4.08

Score Difference (Before): 2 (5.86)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.78)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.9%

Win Probability (After): 63.2%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:43 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at MRSH 46) Levi Lewis pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 42 yds to the Marsh 4 for a 1ST down - UL 13, MRSH 14 3.80 61.9% 9.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 4

Started Drive at: MRSH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.47 - 1.67 = 3.80

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.67)

Score Difference (End): -1 (4.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 13, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.9%

Win Probability (After): 71.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 9:26 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & Goal at MRSH 9) Kyren Lacy 9 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Nate Snyder Kick) - UL 7, MRSH 0 2.37 71.3% 8.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.63 = 2.37

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.63)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 81 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.3%

Win Probability (After): 79.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:29 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 6 at MRSH 25) Nate Snyder 42 Yd Field Goal - UL 10, MRSH 0 0.77 82.6% 4.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: UL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.23 = 0.77

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.23)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.6%

Win Probability (After): 87.2%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:50 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 10 at MRSH 37) Rasheen Ali 63 Yd Run (Shane Ciucci Kick) - UL 10, MRSH 7 6.35 16.5% 14.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 99

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.65 = 6.35

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.35)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.5%

Win Probability (After): 31.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:32 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at UL 14) Rasheen Ali 14 Yd Run (Shane Ciucci Kick) - UL 10, MRSH 14 2.13 45.0% 2.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 99

Started Drive at: MRSH 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.87 = 2.13

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.87)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.0%

Win Probability (After): 47.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:28 ESPN team id 309 (4th & Goal at MRSH 8) Nate Snyder 25 Yd Field Goal - UL 13, MRSH 14 0.66 55.5% 6.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8

Started Drive at: UL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.34 = 0.66

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.66)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 13, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.5%

Win Probability (After): 61.8%

Away Score: 10 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 309 (4th & Goal at MRSH 7) Nate Snyder 24 Yd Field Goal - UL 16, MRSH 14 0.25 61.3% 15.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 7

Started Drive at: MRSH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.75 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.75)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.3%

Win Probability (After): 76.3%

Away Score: 13 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:01 ESPN team id 276 (3rd & Goal at UL 9) Rasheen Ali 9 Yd Run (Shane Ciucci Kick) - UL 16, MRSH 21 3.14 51.5% 12.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: MRSH 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.86 = 3.14

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.86)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.5%

Win Probability (After): 63.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:20 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 2 at MRSH 4) Emani Bailey 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) - UL 22, MRSH 21 0.91 50.5% 11.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 5.09 = 0.91

Score Difference (Before): -5 (0.09)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 22, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.5%

Win Probability (After): 61.5%

Away Score: 16 (22) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:54 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & Goal at MRSH 3) Montrell Johnson 3 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick) - UL 29, MRSH 21 2.37 87.0% 6.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.63 = 2.37

Score Difference (Before): 1 (5.63)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 29, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.0%

Win Probability (After): 93.1%

Away Score: 22 (29) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:41 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & Goal at MRSH 2) Emani Bailey 2 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick) - UL 36, MRSH 21 1.54 99.1% 0.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.46 = 1.54

Score Difference (Before): 8 (13.46)

Score Difference (End): 15 (15.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 36, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 29 (36) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 309 (Kickoff at UL 35) Andrew Sanders kickoff for 59 yds , Emani Bailey return for 13 yds to the LaLaf 19 - UL 0, MRSH 0 -0.34 61.9% -0.4%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 81

Started Drive at: UL 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - 0.86 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.9%

Win Probability (After): 61.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:48 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 19) Levi Lewis run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST down - UL 0, MRSH 0 0.61 67.6% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 71

Started Drive at: UL 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.37 - 0.76 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.76)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.6%

Win Probability (After): 67.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:25 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 29) Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 34 - UL 0, MRSH 0 0.13 69.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 66

Started Drive at: UL 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.66 - 1.53 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.0%

Win Probability (After): 69.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:51 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 5 at UL 34) Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 10 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST down - UL 0, MRSH 0 0.77 69.5% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 56

Started Drive at: UL 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - 1.72 = 0.77

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.5%

Win Probability (After): 71.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:35 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 44) Levi Lewis pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 8 yds to the Marsh 48 - UL 0, MRSH 0 0.71 72.0% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 48

Started Drive at: UL 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 2.47 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.47)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.0%

Win Probability (After): 72.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:01 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 2 at MRSH 48) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren Lacy - UL 0, MRSH 0 -0.96 72.8% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48

Started Drive at: UL 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.19 - 3.15 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.15)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.8%

Win Probability (After): 71.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:55 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 2 at MRSH 48) Levi Lewis pass complete to Emani Bailey for 9 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST down - UL 0, MRSH 0 1.41 71.9% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 39

Started Drive at: UL 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 2.20 = 1.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.20)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.9%

Win Probability (After): 73.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:30 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at MRSH 39) Levi Lewis run for 3 yds to the Marsh 36 - UL 0, MRSH 0 -0.37 72.6% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 36

Started Drive at: UL 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.25 - 3.62 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.6%

Win Probability (After): 73.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:06 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 7 at MRSH 36) Montrell Johnson run for 6 yds to the Marsh 30 - UL 0, MRSH 0 0.54 71.0% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 30

Started Drive at: UL 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 3.25 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.25)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.0%

Win Probability (After): 72.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:41 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 1 at MRSH 30) Montrell Johnson run for 8 yds to the Marsh 22 for a 1ST down - UL 0, MRSH 0 0.88 70.9% 2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 22

Started Drive at: UL 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.66 - 3.78 = 0.88

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.9%

Win Probability (After): 73.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:15 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at MRSH 22) Montrell Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 24 - UL 0, MRSH 0 -1.32 71.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 24

Started Drive at: UL 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.30 - 4.62 = -1.32

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.5%

Win Probability (After): 71.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:38 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 12 at MRSH 24) Levi Lewis pass complete to Emani Bailey for 17 yds to the Marsh 7 for a 1ST down - UL 0, MRSH 0 2.21 69.1% 3.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 7

Started Drive at: UL 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.57 - 3.36 = 2.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.36)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.1%

Win Probability (After): 72.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:05 ESPN team id 309 (1st & Goal at MRSH 7) Montrell Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 9 - UL 0, MRSH 0 -0.94 72.8% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 9

Started Drive at: UL 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.65 - 5.59 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.59)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 0, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.8%

Win Probability (After): 71.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:26 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & Goal at MRSH 9) Kyren Lacy 9 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Nate Snyder Kick) - UL 7, MRSH 0 2.37 71.3% 8.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.63 = 2.37

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.63)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 81 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.3%

Win Probability (After): 79.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:26 ESPN team id 276 (Kickoff at MRSH 35) Nate Snyder kickoff for 56 yds for a touchback - UL 7, MRSH 0 0.00 19.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 0.01 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.99)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.8%

Win Probability (After): 19.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:20 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at MRSH 25) Grant Wells sacked by TEAM for a loss of 7 yards to the Marsh 18 - UL 7, MRSH 0 -1.33 19.3% -1.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 82

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.32 - 0.01 = -1.33

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.99)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.3%

Win Probability (After): 18.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:50 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 17 at MRSH 18) Grant Wells pass complete to Rasheen Ali for 5 yds to the Marsh 23 - UL 7, MRSH 0 -0.62 17.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 77

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.02 - -1.39 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.39)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.6%

Win Probability (After): 17.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:25 ESPN team id 276 (3rd & 12 at MRSH 23) LOUISIANA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Marsh 28 - UL 7, MRSH 0 0.71 17.7% 0.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 72

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.41 - -2.11 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.11)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.7%

Win Probability (After): 18.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:15 ESPN team id 276 (3rd & 7 at MRSH 28) Grant Wells pass incomplete - UL 7, MRSH 0 -1.25 18.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 72

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.68 - -1.43 = -1.25

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.43)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.2%

Win Probability (After): 17.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:04 ESPN team id 276 (4th & 7 at MRSH 28) Robert Lefevre punt for 44 yds , Eric Garror returns for 7 yds to the LaLaf 35 - UL 7, MRSH 0 -0.21 18.3% -0.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 65

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.86 - -2.66 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.66)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.86)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.3%

Win Probability (After): 17.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 7:55 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 35) Levi Lewis sacked by TJ Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the LaLaf 28 - UL 7, MRSH 0 -1.52 82.7% -2.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 72

Started Drive at: UL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.32 - 2.83 = -1.52

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.83)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.7%

Win Probability (After): 80.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:30 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 17 at UL 28) Chandler Fields pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 8 yds to the LaLaf 36 - UL 7, MRSH 0 0.10 81.6% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 64

Started Drive at: UL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.37 - 1.27 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.27)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.6%

Win Probability (After): 81.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:58 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 9 at UL 36) Levi Lewis pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 10 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST down - UL 7, MRSH 0 1.87 82.3% 2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 54

Started Drive at: UL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.29 - 1.42 = 1.87

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.42)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.3%

Win Probability (After): 84.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:30 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 46) Montrell Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 49 - UL 7, MRSH 0 -0.39 84.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 51

Started Drive at: UL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.95 - 3.34 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.6%

Win Probability (After): 84.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:50 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 7 at UL 49) Montrell Johnson run for 2 yds to the Marsh 49 - UL 7, MRSH 0 -0.50 84.6% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 49

Started Drive at: UL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 2.93 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.93)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.6%

Win Probability (After): 83.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:05 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 5 at MRSH 49) Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 5 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST down - UL 7, MRSH 0 1.40 83.7% 1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 44

Started Drive at: UL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.84 - 2.44 = 1.40

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.44)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.7%

Win Probability (After): 85.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:35 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at MRSH 44) Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 2 yds to the Marsh 42 - UL 7, MRSH 0 -0.54 85.2% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 42

Started Drive at: UL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.29 - 3.84 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.84)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.2%

Win Probability (After): 84.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:20 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 8 at MRSH 42) Levi Lewis pass complete to Kaleb Carter for 4 yds to the Marsh 38 - UL 7, MRSH 0 -0.13 84.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 38

Started Drive at: UL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 3.32 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.32)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.7%

Win Probability (After): 84.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:32 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 4 at MRSH 38) Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the Marsh 35 - UL 7, MRSH 0 -0.29 84.5% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 35

Started Drive at: UL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.93 - 3.21 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.21)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.5%

Win Probability (After): 83.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:17 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 1 at MRSH 35) MARSHALL Penalty, Delay of Game (6 Yards) to the Marsh 29 for a 1ST down - UL 7, MRSH 0 1.72 83.1% 2.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 29

Started Drive at: UL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.59 - 2.87 = 1.72

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.87)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.1%

Win Probability (After): 85.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:55 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at MRSH 29) Montrell Johnson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 25 - UL 7, MRSH 0 -0.17 84.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 25

Started Drive at: UL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.43 - 4.60 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.60)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.4%

Win Probability (After): 84.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:15 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 6 at MRSH 25) Montrell Johnson run for no gain to the Marsh 25 - UL 7, MRSH 0 -0.81 84.7% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: UL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.62 - 4.44 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.44)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.7%

Win Probability (After): 83.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:34 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 6 at MRSH 25) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Dontae Fleming - UL 7, MRSH 0 -1.43 84.1% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: UL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.20 - 3.64 = -1.43

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.64)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 7, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.1%

Win Probability (After): 82.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:29 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 6 at MRSH 25) Nate Snyder 42 Yd Field Goal - UL 10, MRSH 0 0.77 82.6% 4.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: UL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.23 = 0.77

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.23)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.6%

Win Probability (After): 87.2%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 1:29 ESPN team id 276 (Kickoff at MRSH 35) Nate Snyder kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UL 10, MRSH 0 0.00 16.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - 0.21 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.79)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.2%

Win Probability (After): 16.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:29 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at MRSH 25) Rasheen Ali run for 12 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST down - UL 10, MRSH 0 1.02 16.2% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 63

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.22 - 0.21 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.79)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.2%

Win Probability (After): 17.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:06 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at MRSH 37) Grant Wells pass incomplete to Willie Johnson - UL 10, MRSH 0 -0.60 17.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 1.23 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.77)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.1%

Win Probability (After): 16.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:50 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 10 at MRSH 37) Rasheen Ali 63 Yd Run (Shane Ciucci Kick) - UL 10, MRSH 7 6.35 16.5% 14.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 99

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.65 = 6.35

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.35)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.5%

Win Probability (After): 31.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:50 ESPN team id 309 (Kickoff at UL 35) Andrew Sanders kickoff for 52 yds , Emani Bailey return for no gain to the LaLaf 13 - UL 10, MRSH 7 -0.69 71.8% -1.2%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 87

Started Drive at: UL 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.81 - 1.50 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.50)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.8%

Win Probability (After): 70.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:47 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 13) T.J. Wisham run for no gain to the LaLaf 13 - UL 10, MRSH 7 -0.76 70.6% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 87

Started Drive at: UL 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 0.81 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.81)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.6%

Win Probability (After): 69.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:13 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 10 at UL 13) Levi Lewis pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 6 yds to the LaLaf 19 - UL 10, MRSH 7 0.14 69.5% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 81

Started Drive at: UL 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - 0.05 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.05)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.5%

Win Probability (After): 68.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 4 at UL 19) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren Lacy - UL 10, MRSH 7 -1.72 70.4% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 81

Started Drive at: UL 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.56 - 0.16 = -1.72

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.16)

Score Difference (End): 3 (1.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.4%

Win Probability (After): 68.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:45 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 4 at UL 19) Rhys Byrns punt for 48 yds for a 1ST down , Talik Keaton returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 17 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Percy Butler) to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST down - UL 10, MRSH 7 -0.77 68.7% -3.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 54

Started Drive at: UL 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.33 - -1.55 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): 3 (1.44)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.67)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 10, MRSH 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.7%

Win Probability (After): 65.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:45 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at MRSH 46) Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the Marsh 49 - UL 10, MRSH 7 -0.36 35.6% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 51

Started Drive at: MRSH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.01 - 2.37 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.63)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.6%

Win Probability (After): 34.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:18 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 7 at MRSH 49) Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 5 yds to the LaLaf 46 - UL 10, MRSH 7 0.15 34.2% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 46

Started Drive at: MRSH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 2.02 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.98)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.2%

Win Probability (After): 34.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:49 ESPN team id 276 (3rd & 2 at UL 46) Ali, Rasheen rush for 18 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE28, PENALTY MARSHALL face mask (Miller, Devin) 15 yards to the MARSHALL39, NO PLAY. - UL 10, MRSH 7 -2.29 35.1% -6.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 61

Started Drive at: MRSH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.11 - 2.18 = -2.29

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.82)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.1%

Win Probability (After): 28.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:25 ESPN team id 276 (3rd & 17 at MRSH 39) Sheldon Evans run for 4 yds to the Marsh 43 - UL 10, MRSH 7 -0.96 29.3% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 57

Started Drive at: MRSH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.05 - -0.09 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.09)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.3%

Win Probability (After): 27.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:39 ESPN team id 276 (4th & 13 at MRSH 43) Robert Lefevre punt for 47 yds , Eric Garror returns for 1 yd to the LaLaf 11 - UL 10, MRSH 7 0.24 27.3% 1.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 89

Started Drive at: MRSH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.68 - -0.92 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.92)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.68)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 10, MRSH 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.3%

Win Probability (After): 28.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 12:39 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 11) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Pearse Migl - UL 10, MRSH 7 -0.73 71.7% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 89

Started Drive at: UL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 0.71 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.71)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.7%

Win Probability (After): 70.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:34 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 10 at UL 11) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Dontae Fleming - UL 10, MRSH 7 -0.82 70.1% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 89

Started Drive at: UL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.87 - -0.05 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.95)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.1%

Win Probability (After): 68.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:29 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 10 at UL 11) Levi Lewis pass complete to Kaleb Carter for 6 yds to the LaLaf 17 - UL 10, MRSH 7 -0.60 68.7% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 83

Started Drive at: UL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.54 - -0.94 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.06)

Score Difference (End): 3 (1.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.7%

Win Probability (After): 66.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:42 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 4 at UL 17) Rhys Byrns punt for 51 yds , Willie Johnson returns for 10 yds to the Marsh 42 - UL 10, MRSH 7 -0.44 66.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 58

Started Drive at: UL 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.98 - -1.54 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 3 (1.46)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.02)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 10, MRSH 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.4%

Win Probability (After): 66.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:42 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at MRSH 42) Rasheen Ali run for 32 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST down - UL 10, MRSH 7 2.05 33.9% 6.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 26

Started Drive at: MRSH 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.14 - 2.09 = 2.05

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.91)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.9%

Win Probability (After): 40.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:11 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at UL 26) Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 12 yds to the LaLaf 14 for a 1ST down - UL 10, MRSH 7 0.68 41.4% 2.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 14

Started Drive at: MRSH 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.84 - 4.16 = 0.68

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.16)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.4%

Win Probability (After): 44.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:32 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at UL 14) Rasheen Ali 14 Yd Run (Shane Ciucci Kick) - UL 10, MRSH 14 2.13 45.0% 2.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 99

Started Drive at: MRSH 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.87 = 2.13

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.87)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.0%

Win Probability (After): 47.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:32 ESPN team id 309 (Kickoff at UL 35) Andrew Sanders kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UL 10, MRSH 14 0.00 55.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.89 - 0.89 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.11)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.4%

Win Probability (After): 55.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:32 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 25) Montrell Johnson run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 30 - UL 10, MRSH 14 0.17 55.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.06 - 0.89 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.11)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.4%

Win Probability (After): 55.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:57 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 5 at UL 30) Levi Lewis pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 26 - UL 10, MRSH 14 -1.58 54.7% -4.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 74

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.52 - 1.06 = -1.58

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.94)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.7%

Win Probability (After): 50.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:35 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 9 at UL 26) Levi Lewis run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 34 - UL 10, MRSH 14 0.12 50.8% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 66

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.41 - -0.53 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.53)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.8%

Win Probability (After): 49.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:50 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 1 at UL 34) Rhys Byrns punt for 44 yds , Willie Johnson returns for 2 yds to the Marsh 24 - UL 10, MRSH 14 -0.84 49.9% -4.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 76

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.44 - -0.60 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.60)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.44)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.9%

Win Probability (After): 45.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 8:50 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at MRSH 24) Willie Johnson run for 2 yds to the Marsh 26 - UL 10, MRSH 14 -0.50 51.6% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 74

Started Drive at: MRSH 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - 1.30 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.30)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.6%

Win Probability (After): 49.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:34 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 8 at MRSH 26) Grant Wells pass incomplete to Devin Miller - UL 10, MRSH 14 -0.85 50.2% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: MRSH 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - 0.80 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.80)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.2%

Win Probability (After): 48.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:28 ESPN team id 276 (3rd & 8 at MRSH 26) Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 14 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST down - UL 10, MRSH 14 2.41 48.1% 6.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 60

Started Drive at: MRSH 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.28 - -0.14 = 2.41

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.86)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.1%

Win Probability (After): 54.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:03 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at MRSH 40) Rasheen Ali run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 38 - UL 10, MRSH 14 -1.05 54.6% -3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 62

Started Drive at: MRSH 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 2.25 = -1.05

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.25)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.6%

Win Probability (After): 51.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:25 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 12 at MRSH 38) Grant Wells pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 6 yds to the Marsh 44 - UL 10, MRSH 14 -0.09 51.0% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 56

Started Drive at: MRSH 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.24 - 1.33 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.33)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.0%

Win Probability (After): 51.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:44 ESPN team id 276 (3rd & 6 at MRSH 44) Grant Wells pass complete to Devin Miller for 4 yds to the Marsh 48 - UL 10, MRSH 14 -1.22 52.1% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 52

Started Drive at: MRSH 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - 1.41 = -1.22

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.41)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.1%

Win Probability (After): 49.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:55 ESPN team id 276 (4th & 2 at MRSH 48) Robert Lefevre punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 17 - UL 10, MRSH 14 -0.67 48.9% 0.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 83

Started Drive at: MRSH 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.62 - 0.05 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.05)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.38)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.9%

Win Probability (After): 49.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:55 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 17) Emani Bailey run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 25 - UL 10, MRSH 14 0.30 51.8% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 75

Started Drive at: UL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.76 - 0.45 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.55)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.8%

Win Probability (After): 52.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:28 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 2 at UL 25) Levi Lewis run for 55 yds to the Marsh 20 for a 1ST down - UL 10, MRSH 14 3.45 52.5% 10.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 20

Started Drive at: UL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 0.84 = 3.45

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.16)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.5%

Win Probability (After): 62.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:53 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at MRSH 20) Emani Bailey run for 7 yds to the Marsh 13 - UL 10, MRSH 14 0.49 63.6% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 13

Started Drive at: UL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.87 - 4.37 = 0.49

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.37)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.6%

Win Probability (After): 64.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:25 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 3 at MRSH 13) Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the Marsh 10 for a 1ST down - UL 10, MRSH 14 -0.03 64.1% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 10

Started Drive at: UL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.01 - 5.03 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): -4 (1.03)

Score Difference (End): -4 (1.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.1%

Win Probability (After): 65.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:54 ESPN team id 309 (1st & Goal at MRSH 10) Levi Lewis run for 1 yd to the Marsh 9 - UL 10, MRSH 14 -0.37 64.6% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 9

Started Drive at: UL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.60 - 4.97 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.97)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.6%

Win Probability (After): 64.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:19 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & Goal at MRSH 9) Levi Lewis pass complete to Montrell Johnson for 3 yds to the Marsh 6 - UL 10, MRSH 14 -0.45 63.2% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 6

Started Drive at: UL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.09 - 4.54 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.54)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.2%

Win Probability (After): 60.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:33 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & Goal at MRSH 6) Timeout MARSHALL, clock 02:33 - UL 10, MRSH 14 0.00 61.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: UL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.09 - 4.09 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.09)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.0%

Win Probability (After): 61.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:33 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & Goal at MRSH 6) Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the Marsh 3 - UL 10, MRSH 14 -1.15 59.9% -3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 3

Started Drive at: UL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.84 - 3.99 = -1.15

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.01)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.9%

Win Probability (After): 56.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:52 ESPN team id 309 (4th & Goal at MRSH 3) LOUISIANA Penalty, False Start (Nathan Thomas) to the Marsh 8 - UL 10, MRSH 14 -0.42 57.4% -2.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 8

Started Drive at: UL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 2.82 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.18)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 10, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.4%

Win Probability (After): 54.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:28 ESPN team id 309 (4th & Goal at MRSH 8) Nate Snyder 25 Yd Field Goal - UL 13, MRSH 14 0.66 55.5% 6.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8

Started Drive at: UL 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.34 = 0.66

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.66)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 13, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.5%

Win Probability (After): 61.8%

Away Score: 10 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:28 ESPN team id 276 (Kickoff at MRSH 35) Nate Snyder kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UL 13, MRSH 14 0.00 50.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.67 - 0.67 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.67)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 13, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.8%

Win Probability (After): 50.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:28 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at MRSH 25) Rasheen Ali run for 8 yds to the Marsh 33 - UL 13, MRSH 14 0.20 50.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.87 - 0.67 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.67)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 13, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.8%

Win Probability (After): 50.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:23 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 2 at MRSH 33) Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 11 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST down - UL 13, MRSH 14 0.31 51.1% 1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 56

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.27 - 0.96 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.96)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 13, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.1%

Win Probability (After): 52.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:15 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at MRSH 44) Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 7 yds to the LaLaf 49 - UL 13, MRSH 14 0.18 52.8% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 49

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.52 - 1.34 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.34)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 13, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.8%

Win Probability (After): 53.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:43 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 3 at UL 49) Grant Wells pass intercepted Bralen Trahan return for 26 yds to the Marsh 46 - UL 13, MRSH 14 -3.27 53.1% -14.7%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 46

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.95 - 1.32 = -3.27

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.32)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.95)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 13, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.1%

Win Probability (After): 38.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:43 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at MRSH 46) Levi Lewis pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 42 yds to the Marsh 4 for a 1ST down - UL 13, MRSH 14 3.80 61.9% 9.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 4

Started Drive at: MRSH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.47 - 1.67 = 3.80

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.67)

Score Difference (End): -1 (4.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 13, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.9%

Win Probability (After): 71.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:35 ESPN team id 309 (1st & Goal at MRSH 4) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren Lacy - UL 13, MRSH 14 -0.52 71.5% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: MRSH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.92 - 5.44 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): -1 (4.44)

Score Difference (End): -1 (3.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 13, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.5%

Win Probability (After): 70.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:30 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & Goal at MRSH 4) Levi Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 6 - UL 13, MRSH 14 -1.20 71.0% -2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 6

Started Drive at: MRSH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.69 - 4.88 = -1.20

Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.88)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 13, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.0%

Win Probability (After): 68.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:24 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & Goal at MRSH 6) Timeout LOUISIANA, clock 00:24 - UL 13, MRSH 14 0.00 68.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: MRSH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.69 - 3.69 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -1 (2.69)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 13, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.2%

Win Probability (After): 68.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:24 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & Goal at MRSH 6) Montrell Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 7 - UL 13, MRSH 14 -0.88 68.3% -4.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 7

Started Drive at: MRSH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 3.69 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): -1 (2.69)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 13, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.3%

Win Probability (After): 63.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:03 ESPN team id 309 (4th & Goal at MRSH 7) Timeout LOUISIANA, clock 00:03 - UL 13, MRSH 14 0.00 65.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 7

Started Drive at: MRSH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 2.81 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.81)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 13, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.1%

Win Probability (After): 65.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:03 ESPN team id 309 (4th & Goal at MRSH 7) Timeout MARSHALL, clock 00:03 - UL 13, MRSH 14 0.00 62.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 7

Started Drive at: MRSH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 2.63 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.63)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 13, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.6%

Win Probability (After): 62.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 309 (4th & Goal at MRSH 7) Nate Snyder 24 Yd Field Goal - UL 16, MRSH 14 0.25 61.3% 15.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 7

Started Drive at: MRSH 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.75 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.75)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.3%

Win Probability (After): 76.3%

Away Score: 13 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 276 (Kickoff at MRSH 35) Nate Snyder kickoff for 55 yds , Jayden Harrison return for 20 yds to the Marsh 30 - UL 16, MRSH 14 0.63 34.5% 0.7%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 70

Started Drive at: MRSH 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.22 - 0.58 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.42)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.5%

Win Probability (After): 35.2%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:54 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at MRSH 30) Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the Marsh 33 - UL 16, MRSH 14 -0.64 36.3% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 67

Started Drive at: MRSH 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.69 - 1.33 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.67)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.3%

Win Probability (After): 34.9%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:28 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 7 at MRSH 33) Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 2 yds to the Marsh 35 - UL 16, MRSH 14 -0.33 36.2% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 65

Started Drive at: MRSH 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.62 - 0.94 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.06)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.2%

Win Probability (After): 34.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:56 ESPN team id 276 (3rd & 5 at MRSH 35) Grant Wells pass incomplete to Rasheen Ali - UL 16, MRSH 14 -1.89 35.6% -6.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: MRSH 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.13 - 0.76 = -1.89

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.24)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-3.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.6%

Win Probability (After): 29.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:41 ESPN team id 276 (4th & 5 at MRSH 35) Robert Lefevre punt for 35 yds, downed at the LaLaf 30 - UL 16, MRSH 14 -0.73 29.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 70

Started Drive at: MRSH 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.74 - -1.01 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-3.01)

Score Difference (End): 2 (3.74)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.7%

Win Probability (After): 29.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 13:41 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 30) Emani Bailey run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 34 - UL 16, MRSH 14 -0.14 70.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 66

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.55 - 1.68 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): 2 (3.68)

Score Difference (End): 2 (3.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.1%

Win Probability (After): 69.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:05 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 6 at UL 34) Levi Lewis pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 17 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST down - UL 16, MRSH 14 1.42 69.6% 4.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 49

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 1.57 = 1.42

Score Difference (Before): 2 (3.57)

Score Difference (End): 2 (4.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.6%

Win Probability (After): 73.9%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:52 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at MRSH 49) Levi Lewis pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 12 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST down - UL 16, MRSH 14 0.54 73.6% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 37

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.54 - 3.00 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): 2 (5.00)

Score Difference (End): 2 (5.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.6%

Win Probability (After): 74.9%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:35 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at MRSH 37) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Kyren Lacy - UL 16, MRSH 14 -0.66 74.7% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 37

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.89 - 3.54 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 2 (5.54)

Score Difference (End): 2 (4.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.7%

Win Probability (After): 73.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:28 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 10 at MRSH 37) Levi Lewis run for 16 yds to the Marsh 21 for a 1ST down - UL 16, MRSH 14 1.77 73.5% 3.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 21

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.65 - 2.88 = 1.77

Score Difference (Before): 2 (4.88)

Score Difference (End): 2 (6.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.5%

Win Probability (After): 77.2%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:58 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at MRSH 21) Montrell Johnson run for 1 yd to the Marsh 20 - UL 16, MRSH 14 -0.59 77.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 20

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 4.67 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 2 (6.67)

Score Difference (End): 2 (6.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.3%

Win Probability (After): 76.9%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:21 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 9 at MRSH 20) Levi Lewis run for 2 yds to the Marsh 18 - UL 16, MRSH 14 -0.57 76.9% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 18

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.50 - 4.07 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 2 (6.07)

Score Difference (End): 2 (5.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.9%

Win Probability (After): 75.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:48 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 7 at MRSH 18) Montrell Johnson run for 6 yds to the Marsh 12 - UL 16, MRSH 14 0.32 75.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 12

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.81 - 3.49 = 0.32

Score Difference (Before): 2 (5.49)

Score Difference (End): 2 (5.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.8%

Win Probability (After): 75.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:05 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 1 at MRSH 12) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Dontae Fleming - UL 16, MRSH 14 -4.08 72.9% -9.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 88

Started Drive at: UL 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.22 - 3.86 = -4.08

Score Difference (Before): 2 (5.86)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.78)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.9%

Win Probability (After): 63.2%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:05 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at MRSH 12) Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the Marsh 14 - UL 16, MRSH 14 -0.48 34.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 86

Started Drive at: MRSH 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.27 - 0.21 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.79)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.8%

Win Probability (After): 34.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:35 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 8 at MRSH 14) Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 7 yds to the Marsh 21 - UL 16, MRSH 14 0.33 36.5% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 79

Started Drive at: MRSH 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.15 - -0.18 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-2.18)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.5%

Win Probability (After): 34.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:11 ESPN team id 276 (3rd & 1 at MRSH 21) Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the Marsh 23 for a 1ST down - UL 16, MRSH 14 0.68 35.7% 4.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 77

Started Drive at: MRSH 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.18 = 0.68

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.82)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.7%

Win Probability (After): 39.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:36 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at MRSH 23) Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the Marsh 26 - UL 16, MRSH 14 -0.33 38.4% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 74

Started Drive at: MRSH 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - 0.78 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.22)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.4%

Win Probability (After): 37.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:03 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 7 at MRSH 26) Grant Wells run for 4 yds to the Marsh 30 - UL 16, MRSH 14 -0.06 37.0% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 70

Started Drive at: MRSH 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.36 - 0.41 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.59)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.0%

Win Probability (After): 35.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:40 ESPN team id 276 (3rd & 3 at MRSH 30) Rasheen Ali run for a loss of 18 yards to the Marsh 12 Rasheen Ali fumbled, forced by Trey Amos, recovered by Marsh - UL 16, MRSH 14 -3.06 34.7% -6.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 88

Started Drive at: MRSH 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.73 - 0.33 = -3.06

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.67)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-4.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.7%

Win Probability (After): 28.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:56 ESPN team id 276 (4th & 21 at MRSH 12) Robert Lefevre punt for 44 yds , Eric Garror returns for 3 yds to the LaLaf 47 - UL 16, MRSH 14 0.15 28.3% 0.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 53

Started Drive at: MRSH 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.56 - -2.71 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-4.71)

Score Difference (End): 2 (4.56)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.3%

Win Probability (After): 28.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:56 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 47) Emani Bailey run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 45 - UL 16, MRSH 14 -1.10 71.7% -2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 55

Started Drive at: UL 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.49 - 2.59 = -1.10

Score Difference (Before): 2 (4.59)

Score Difference (End): 2 (3.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.7%

Win Probability (After): 69.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:18 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 12 at UL 45) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Emani Bailey - UL 16, MRSH 14 -1.04 69.2% -3.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: UL 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - 1.49 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): 2 (3.49)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.2%

Win Probability (After): 65.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:14 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 12 at UL 45) Levi Lewis sacked by Owen Porter and TJ Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 40 - UL 16, MRSH 14 -1.49 65.6% -3.8%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 60

Started Drive at: UL 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.05 - 0.45 = -1.49

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.45)

Score Difference (End): 2 (0.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.6%

Win Probability (After): 61.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:21 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 17 at UL 40) Rhys Byrns punt for 47 yds , Willie Johnson returns for 24 yds to the Marsh 37 - UL 16, MRSH 14 -0.84 62.2% -4.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 63

Started Drive at: UL 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.88 - -1.04 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): 2 (0.96)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.12)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.2%

Win Probability (After): 58.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 5:21 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at MRSH 37) Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 4 yds to the Marsh 41 - UL 16, MRSH 14 -0.08 42.2% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 59

Started Drive at: MRSH 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.80 - 1.88 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.12)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.2%

Win Probability (After): 42.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:15 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 6 at MRSH 41) Sheldon Evans run for 5 yds to the Marsh 46 - UL 16, MRSH 14 0.32 42.0% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 54

Started Drive at: MRSH 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.10 - 1.78 = 0.32

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.22)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.0%

Win Probability (After): 42.9%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:57 ESPN team id 276 (3rd & 1 at MRSH 46) Sheldon Evans run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST down - UL 16, MRSH 14 0.92 42.3% 6.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 46

Started Drive at: MRSH 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.02 - 2.10 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.10)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.3%

Win Probability (After): 48.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:23 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at UL 46) Willie Johnson run for 19 yds to the LaLaf 27 MARSHALL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LaLaf 37 - UL 16, MRSH 14 1.63 48.8% 3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 37

Started Drive at: MRSH 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.65 - 3.05 = 1.63

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.02)

Score Difference (End): -2 (2.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.8%

Win Probability (After): 52.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:06 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 1 at UL 37) Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 4 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST down - UL 16, MRSH 14 -0.72 52.4% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 33

Started Drive at: MRSH 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 4.64 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): -2 (2.64)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.4%

Win Probability (After): 50.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:43 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at UL 33) Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 29 - UL 16, MRSH 14 -0.14 51.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 29

Started Drive at: MRSH 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.77 - 3.91 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.91)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.1%

Win Probability (After): 50.9%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:09 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 6 at UL 29) Rasheen Ali run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST down - UL 16, MRSH 14 0.83 50.4% 3.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 22

Started Drive at: MRSH 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.56 - 3.73 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.73)

Score Difference (End): -2 (2.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.4%

Win Probability (After): 53.9%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:38 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at UL 22) Grant Wells pass incomplete to Talik Keaton - UL 16, MRSH 14 -0.55 53.5% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: MRSH 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.00 - 4.56 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -2 (2.56)

Score Difference (End): -2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.5%

Win Probability (After): 51.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:32 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 10 at UL 22) Grant Wells pass incomplete to Devin Miller - UL 16, MRSH 14 -0.74 52.1% -3.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: MRSH 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 4.02 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): -2 (2.02)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.1%

Win Probability (After): 48.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:29 ESPN team id 276 (3rd & 10 at UL 22) Rasheen Ali run for 14 yds to the LaLaf 8 for a 1ST down - UL 16, MRSH 14 2.15 49.0% 8.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 8

Started Drive at: MRSH 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.44 - 3.29 = 2.15

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.29)

Score Difference (End): -2 (3.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.0%

Win Probability (After): 57.2%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:17 ESPN team id 276 (1st & Goal at UL 8) Sheldon Evans run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaLaf 13 - UL 16, MRSH 14 -1.38 57.2% -5.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 13

Started Drive at: MRSH 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.06 - 5.44 = -1.38

Score Difference (Before): -2 (3.44)

Score Difference (End): -2 (2.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.2%

Win Probability (After): 51.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:41 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & Goal at UL 13) Grant Wells run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 9 - UL 16, MRSH 14 -0.26 52.6% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 9

Started Drive at: MRSH 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.82 - 4.09 = -0.26

Score Difference (Before): -2 (2.09)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 14

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 50.9%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:01 ESPN team id 276 (3rd & Goal at UL 9) Rasheen Ali 9 Yd Run (Shane Ciucci Kick) - UL 16, MRSH 21 3.14 51.5% 12.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: MRSH 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.86 = 3.14

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.86)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.5%

Win Probability (After): 63.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:01 ESPN team id 309 (Kickoff at UL 35) Andrew Sanders kickoff for 57 yds , Eric Garror return for 17 yds to the LaLaf 25 - UL 16, MRSH 21 0.00 39.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.89 - 0.89 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.11)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-4.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.2%

Win Probability (After): 39.2%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:56 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 25) Johnson, Montrell rush for loss of 2 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE23, PENALTY MARSHALL face mask (Porter, Owen) 15 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ULLAFAYTTE. - UL 16, MRSH 21 1.16 39.0% 2.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 60

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.05 - 0.89 = 1.16

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.11)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-2.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.0%

Win Probability (After): 41.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:34 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 40) Levi Lewis pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 12 yds to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST down - UL 16, MRSH 21 0.85 41.1% 1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 48

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.90 - 2.05 = 0.85

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-2.95)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-2.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.1%

Win Probability (After): 42.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:21 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at MRSH 48) Montrell Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 49 - UL 16, MRSH 21 -1.35 42.6% -3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 51

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.55 - 2.90 = -1.35

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-2.10)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-3.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.6%

Win Probability (After): 39.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 13 at UL 49) Levi Lewis run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 45 - UL 16, MRSH 21 -1.29 40.2% -3.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 55

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.29 - 1.58 = -1.29

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-3.42)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-4.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.2%

Win Probability (After): 36.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:19 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 17 at UL 45) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Michael Jefferson - UL 16, MRSH 21 -1.40 36.6% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.01 - 0.39 = -1.40

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.61)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-6.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.6%

Win Probability (After): 34.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:04 ESPN team id 309 (4th & 17 at UL 45) Rhys Byrns punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Willie Johnson at the MARSHALL 18 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Jayrin Wilson) to the Marsh 33 for a 1ST down - UL 16, MRSH 21 -0.92 34.3% -1.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 67

Started Drive at: UL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.93 - -0.94 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-6.01)

Score Difference (End): 5 (6.93)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.3%

Win Probability (After): 33.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:04 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at MRSH 33) Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 32 - UL 16, MRSH 21 -0.98 66.8% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 68

Started Drive at: MRSH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - 1.88 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.88)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.8%

Win Probability (After): 65.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:33 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 11 at MRSH 32) Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the Marsh 35 - UL 16, MRSH 21 -0.27 65.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 65

Started Drive at: MRSH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 0.90 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): 5 (5.90)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.3%

Win Probability (After): 65.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:58 ESPN team id 276 (3rd & 8 at MRSH 35) LOUISIANA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Trey Amos) to the Marsh 40 - UL 16, MRSH 21 0.73 65.0% 1.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 60

Started Drive at: MRSH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.39 - 0.66 = 0.73

Score Difference (Before): 5 (5.66)

Score Difference (End): 5 (6.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.0%

Win Probability (After): 66.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:41 ESPN team id 276 (3rd & 3 at MRSH 40) Rasheen Ali run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 38 - UL 16, MRSH 21 -1.93 66.5% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 62

Started Drive at: MRSH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.59 - 1.34 = -1.93

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.34)

Score Difference (End): 5 (4.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.5%

Win Probability (After): 64.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:54 ESPN team id 276 (4th & 5 at MRSH 38) Robert Lefevre punt for 30 yds, downed at the LaLaf 32 - UL 16, MRSH 21 -1.17 64.0% -4.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 68

Started Drive at: MRSH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.65 - -0.49 = -1.17

Score Difference (Before): 5 (4.51)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-3.35)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.0%

Win Probability (After): 59.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 11:54 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 32) Emani Bailey run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 37 - UL 16, MRSH 21 0.11 39.3% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 63

Started Drive at: UL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.86 - 1.75 = 0.11

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-3.25)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-3.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.3%

Win Probability (After): 40.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:42 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 5 at UL 37) Bailey, Emani rush for 4 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE41, PENALTY MARSHALL offside 4 yards to the ULLAFAYTTE41, NO PLAY. - UL 16, MRSH 21 0.80 40.3% 1.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 59

Started Drive at: UL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 1.78 = 0.80

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-3.22)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-2.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.3%

Win Probability (After): 41.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:16 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 1 at UL 41) Emani Bailey run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST down - UL 16, MRSH 21 -0.23 41.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 57

Started Drive at: UL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.31 - 2.54 = -0.23

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-2.46)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-2.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.6%

Win Probability (After): 41.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:55 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 43) Levi Lewis pass incomplete to John Stephens Jr. - UL 16, MRSH 21 -0.51 41.8% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: UL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 2.34 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-2.66)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-3.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.8%

Win Probability (After): 41.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:47 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 10 at UL 43) Levi Lewis run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaLaf 40 - UL 16, MRSH 21 -1.44 40.0% -4.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 60

Started Drive at: UL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 1.82 = -1.44

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-3.18)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-4.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.0%

Win Probability (After): 35.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:09 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 13 at UL 40) Levi Lewis pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 48 yds to the Marsh 12 for a 1ST down - UL 16, MRSH 21 4.65 34.3% 19.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 12

Started Drive at: UL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.10 - 0.45 = 4.65

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.55)

Score Difference (End): -5 (0.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.3%

Win Probability (After): 54.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:52 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at MRSH 12) Bailey, Emani rush for 4 yards to the MARSHALL8, PENALTY MARSHALL substitution infraction 5 yards to the MARSHALL7, NO PLAY. - UL 16, MRSH 21 0.65 54.1% 3.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 7

Started Drive at: UL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.71 - 5.06 = 0.65

Score Difference (Before): -5 (0.06)

Score Difference (End): -5 (0.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.1%

Win Probability (After): 57.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:26 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 5 at MRSH 7) LOUISIANA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Marsh 12 - UL 16, MRSH 21 -0.63 57.5% -3.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 12

Started Drive at: UL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.06 - 5.69 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -5 (0.69)

Score Difference (End): -5 (0.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.5%

Win Probability (After): 54.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:06 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at MRSH 12) Levi Lewis pass incomplete - UL 16, MRSH 21 -0.55 53.7% -3.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 12

Started Drive at: UL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - 5.07 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -5 (0.07)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-0.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.7%

Win Probability (After): 50.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:00 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 10 at MRSH 12) Montrell Johnson run for 8 yds to the Marsh 4 - UL 16, MRSH 21 0.67 49.6% 4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 4

Started Drive at: UL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.20 - 4.54 = 0.67

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-0.46)

Score Difference (End): -5 (0.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.6%

Win Probability (After): 53.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:25 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 2 at MRSH 4) Timeout LOUISIANA, clock 08:25 - UL 16, MRSH 21 0.00 53.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: UL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.20 - 5.20 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -5 (0.20)

Score Difference (End): -5 (0.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 16, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.8%

Win Probability (After): 53.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:20 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & 2 at MRSH 4) Emani Bailey 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) - UL 22, MRSH 21 0.91 50.5% 11.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 5.09 = 0.91

Score Difference (Before): -5 (0.09)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 22, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.5%

Win Probability (After): 61.5%

Away Score: 16 (22) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:20 ESPN team id 276 (Kickoff at MRSH 35) Nate Snyder kickoff for 63 yds , Shadeed Ahmed return for 22 yds to the MARSHALL 43 MARSHALL Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Marsh 14 - UL 22, MRSH 21 -0.54 46.4% -5.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 86

Started Drive at: MRSH 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - 1.06 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-7.77)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 22, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.4%

Win Probability (After): 41.3%

Away Score: 22 (22) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:13 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at MRSH 14) Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the Marsh 17 - UL 22, MRSH 21 -0.46 45.2% -6.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 83

Started Drive at: MRSH 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.14 - 0.60 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.40)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 22, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.2%

Win Probability (After): 38.9%

Away Score: 22 (22) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 7:43 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 7 at MRSH 17) Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 6 yds to the Marsh 23 - UL 22, MRSH 21 0.25 38.1% 3.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 77

Started Drive at: MRSH 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - 0.20 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.80)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 22, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.1%

Win Probability (After): 41.5%

Away Score: 22 (22) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 7:18 ESPN team id 276 (3rd & 1 at MRSH 23) Rasheen Ali run for no gain to the Marsh 23 - UL 22, MRSH 21 -1.71 40.1% -6.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77

Started Drive at: MRSH 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.12 - 0.59 = -1.71

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.41)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-2.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 22, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.1%

Win Probability (After): 33.3%

Away Score: 22 (22) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 6:28 ESPN team id 276 (4th & 1 at MRSH 23) Robert Lefevre punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 27 - UL 22, MRSH 21 -0.32 31.5% 2.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 73

Started Drive at: MRSH 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.29 - -0.97 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-1.97)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.29)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 22, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.5%

Win Probability (After): 34.0%

Away Score: 22 (22) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 6:28 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 27) Montrell Johnson run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 29 - UL 22, MRSH 21 -0.49 67.2% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 71

Started Drive at: UL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.73 - 1.23 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.23)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 22, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.2%

Win Probability (After): 65.4%

Away Score: 22 (22) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:54 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 8 at UL 29) Levi Lewis pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 54 yds to the Marsh 17 for a 1ST down - UL 22, MRSH 21 4.00 65.2% 15.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 17

Started Drive at: UL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.60 - 0.61 = 4.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.61)

Score Difference (End): 1 (5.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 22, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.8%

Away Score: 22 (22) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:34 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at MRSH 17) Montrell Johnson run for 11 yds to the Marsh 6 for a 1ST down - UL 22, MRSH 21 0.97 80.9% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 6

Started Drive at: UL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.48 - 4.51 = 0.97

Score Difference (Before): 1 (5.51)

Score Difference (End): 1 (6.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 22, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.9%

Win Probability (After): 82.0%

Away Score: 22 (22) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:03 ESPN team id 309 (1st & Goal at MRSH 6) Montrell Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 8 - UL 22, MRSH 21 -1.00 85.6% -4.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 8

Started Drive at: UL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.48 - 5.48 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (6.48)

Score Difference (End): 1 (5.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 22, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.6%

Win Probability (After): 81.0%

Away Score: 22 (22) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:20 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & Goal at MRSH 8) Montrell Johnson run for 5 yds to the Marsh 3 - UL 22, MRSH 21 0.02 85.3% -3.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 3

Started Drive at: UL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.59 - 4.57 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): 1 (5.57)

Score Difference (End): 1 (5.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 22, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.3%

Win Probability (After): 81.5%

Away Score: 22 (22) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:54 ESPN team id 309 (3rd & Goal at MRSH 3) Montrell Johnson 3 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick) - UL 29, MRSH 21 2.37 87.0% 6.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.63 = 2.37

Score Difference (Before): 1 (5.63)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 29, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.0%

Win Probability (After): 93.1%

Away Score: 22 (29) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:54 ESPN team id 276 (Kickoff at MRSH 35) Nate Snyder kickoff for 59 yds for a touchback - UL 29, MRSH 21 0.00 8.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - 0.79 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.21)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 29, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.2%

Win Probability (After): 8.2%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:54 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at MRSH 25) MARSHALL Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Marsh 20 - UL 29, MRSH 21 -0.43 8.2% -1.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 80

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.36 - 0.79 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.21)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 29, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.2%

Win Probability (After): 6.7%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:54 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 15 at MRSH 20) Grant Wells pass incomplete to Willie Johnson MARSHALL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (James Magee) to the Marsh 10 - UL 29, MRSH 21 -0.58 6.7% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 90

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.22 - 0.36 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.64)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 29, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, -10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.7%

Win Probability (After): 6.1%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:49 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 25 at MRSH 10) Grant Wells pass incomplete to Willie Johnson - UL 29, MRSH 21 -0.59 5.4% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.32 - -0.73 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-8.73)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-9.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 29, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.4%

Win Probability (After): 4.2%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:43 ESPN team id 276 (3rd & 25 at MRSH 10) Grant Wells pass incomplete to Shadeed Ahmed - UL 29, MRSH 21 -0.75 4.6% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.08 - -1.32 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-9.32)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-10.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 29, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.6%

Win Probability (After): 3.6%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:26 ESPN team id 276 (4th & 25 at MRSH 10) Robert Lefevre punt for 42 yds, downed at the LaLaf 48 - UL 29, MRSH 21 0.15 2.6% 0.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 52

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.95 - -2.11 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-10.11)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.95)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 29, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.6%

Win Probability (After): 3.0%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 3:26 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at UL 48) Emani Bailey run for 3 yds to the Marsh 49 - UL 29, MRSH 21 -0.14 97.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 49

Started Drive at: UL 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.65 - 1.80 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.80)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 29, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.6%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:21 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 7 at MRSH 49) Timeout MARSHALL, clock 03:21 - UL 29, MRSH 21 0.00 97.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: UL 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.65 - 1.65 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.65)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 29, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.6%

Win Probability (After): 97.6%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:21 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 7 at MRSH 49) Emani Bailey run for 11 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST down - UL 29, MRSH 21 0.96 98.1% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 38

Started Drive at: UL 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 1.61 = 0.96

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.61)

Score Difference (End): 8 (10.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 29, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.1%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:45 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at MRSH 38) Emani Bailey run for 9 yds to the Marsh 29 - UL 29, MRSH 21 1.02 98.7% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 29

Started Drive at: UL 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 2.42 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): 8 (10.42)

Score Difference (End): 8 (11.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 29, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.7%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:01 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 1 at MRSH 29) Emani Bailey run for 19 yds to the Marsh 10 for a 1ST down - UL 29, MRSH 21 1.44 98.8% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 10

Started Drive at: UL 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.61 - 3.17 = 1.44

Score Difference (Before): 8 (11.17)

Score Difference (End): 8 (12.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 29, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:54 ESPN team id 309 (1st & Goal at MRSH 10) Emani Bailey run for 8 yds to the Marsh 2 - UL 29, MRSH 21 1.15 99.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 2

Started Drive at: UL 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.54 - 4.38 = 1.15

Score Difference (Before): 8 (12.38)

Score Difference (End): 8 (13.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 29, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:45 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & Goal at MRSH 2) Timeout MARSHALL, clock 01:45 - UL 29, MRSH 21 0.00 99.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 2

Started Drive at: UL 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.54 - 5.54 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 8 (13.54)

Score Difference (End): 8 (13.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 29, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.0%

Win Probability (After): 99.0%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:41 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & Goal at MRSH 2) Emani Bailey 2 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick) - UL 36, MRSH 21 1.54 99.1% 0.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: UL 48

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.46 = 1.54

Score Difference (Before): 8 (13.46)

Score Difference (End): 15 (15.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 36, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 29 (36) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:41 ESPN team id 276 (Kickoff at MRSH 35) Nate Snyder kickoff for 45 yds for a touchback - UL 36, MRSH 21 0.00 0.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.81 - 0.81 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-14.19)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-14.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 36, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:41 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at MRSH 25) Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 13 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST down - UL 36, MRSH 21 0.53 0.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 62

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 0.81 = 0.53

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-14.19)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-13.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 36, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:35 ESPN team id 276 (1st & 10 at MRSH 38) Grant Wells pass incomplete to Xavier Gaines - UL 36, MRSH 21 -0.25 0.5% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 1.20 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-13.80)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-14.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 36, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:22 ESPN team id 276 (2nd & 10 at MRSH 38) Grant Wells sacked by Andre Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the Marsh 31 Grant Wells fumbled, forced by Andre Jones, recovered by LaLaf Kris Moncrief , return for 0 yards - UL 36, MRSH 21 -3.69 0.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 31

Started Drive at: MRSH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.84 - 0.85 = -3.69

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-14.15)

Score Difference (End): 15 (17.84)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UL 36, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:22 ESPN team id 309 (1st & 10 at MRSH 31) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 32 - UL 36, MRSH 21 -0.97 99.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 32

Started Drive at: MRSH 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 2.80 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): 15 (17.80)

Score Difference (End): 15 (16.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 36, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:42 ESPN team id 309 (2nd & 11 at MRSH 32) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 33 - UL 36, MRSH 21 -0.60 99.7% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 33

Started Drive at: MRSH 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.28 - 1.88 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 15 (16.88)

Score Difference (End): 15 (16.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UL 36, MRSH 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 36 (36) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1