UCF 29 @ Florida 17

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 6.52 | Odds: FLA -7, O/U 56.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 2116 ESPN team id 57
Total Plays 8883
Total EPA -2.4-23.98
  Offensive EPA 3.82-6.72
  Special Teams EPA -2.66-9.68
  Penalty EPA -2.56-7.45
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA -1.00-0.13
Production ESPN team id 2116 ESPN team id 57
Scrimmage Plays 7567
  Yards 451381
  Yards/Play 6.015.69
  EPA 3.82-6.72
  EPA/Play 0.05-0.10
Passes 27 (36%)39 (58%)
  Yards 148171
  Yards/Play 5.484.38
  EPA -0.88-14.87
  EPA/Play -0.03-0.38
Rushes 48 (64%)28 (42%)
  Yards 302208
  Yards/Play 6.297.43
  EPA 4.698.15
  EPA/Play 0.100.29
Rushing ESPN team id 2116 ESPN team id 57
Scrimmage Plays 7567
Rushes 48 (64%)28 (42%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 2 (4%)1 (4%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 2 (100%)0 (0%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 10 (21%)4 (14%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 21 (44%)9 (32%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 20 (42%)18 (64%)
OL Line Yards 61.547.1
  Per Carry 1.281.68
Highlight Yards 175.588
  Per Rush Opportunity 8.784.89
Explosiveness ESPN team id 2116 ESPN team id 57
Total Plays 8883
Scrimmage Plays 7567
Explosive Plays 7 (9%)4 (6%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 2 (7%)0 (0%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 5 (10%)4 (14%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -19.17-16.15
  EPA/Play -0.28-0.26
  When Passing -8.54-14.87
    EPA/Play -0.32-0.38
  When Rushing -10.63-1.28
    EPA/Play -0.25-0.05
Situational ESPN team id 2116 ESPN team id 57
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 30 (40%)26 (39%)
  When Passing 10 (37%)11 (28%)
  When Rushing 20 (42%)15 (54%)
  On Standard Downs 22 (42%)19 (48%)
  On Passing Downs 8 (35%)7 (26%)
  On Early Downs 23 (40%)24 (46%)
  On Late Downs 7 (39%)2 (13%)
  During "Middle 8" 1 (13%)5 (38%)
Early Downs 5752
  First Downs Created 11 (19%)15 (29%)
  EPA 6.148.36
  EPA/Play 0.110.16
  Passes 17 (30%)28 (54%)
  Rushes 40 (70%)24 (46%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 7 (41%)10 (36%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 16 (40%)14 (58%)
"Middle 8" Plays 813
  EPA -3.39-0.32
  EPA/play -0.42-0.02
  Passes 3 (38%)8 (62%)
  Rushes 5 (63%)5 (38%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 0 (0%)2 (25%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 1 (20%)3 (60%)
Drives ESPN team id 2116 ESPN team id 57
Total 1413
Avg Starting Field Position Own 34Own 29
Plays/Drive 7.816.64
Yards/Drive 41.5237.85
Available Yards % 63%53%
Defensive ESPN team id 2116 ESPN team id 57
Scrimmage Plays 6775
Stop Rate 46%31%
Havoc Plays Created 5 (7%)12 (16%)
  Passing 4 (10%)2 (7%)
  Rushing 1 (4%)10 (21%)
TFLs Generated 512
  Passing 42
  Rushing 110
Sacks Generated 2 (5%)2 (7%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 00
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 2116 ESPN team id 57
Turnovers 00
  Fumbles 00
  Fumbles Lost 00
  Fumbles Recovered 00
  Interceptions 00
Turnover Margin 00
Expected Turnovers 0.00.0
Expected Turnover Margin 0.00.0
Turnover Luck (pts) 0.00.0
Special Teams ESPN team id 2116 ESPN team id 57
Total Plays 13 16
Total EPA -2.66 -9.68
  Field Goal EPA -1.4 -5.32
  Punting EPA -2.42 0.37
  Kickoff Return EPA 1.16 -4.73
Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Mikey Keene 14/22, 144 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 Scks, 52.5 xQBR 6.00 0.07 1.60 38% 0.0%
Parker Navarro 1/2, 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 24.4 xQBR 2.00 -0.43 -0.85 50% -28.0%
Joey Gatewood 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 13.1 xQBR 0.00 -1.62 -1.62 0% -5.0%
Rush attempts
Ryan O'Keefe 4 carries, 110 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 27.50 1.78 7.13 75% 13.0%
Johnny Richardson 3 carries, 40 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.33 0.82 2.45 33% 2.0%
Isaiah Bowser 35 carries, 155 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.43 0.03 1.16 46% -6.0%
Parker Navarro 1 carry, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.32 -0.32 0% 0.0%
Amari Johnson 1 carry, 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.49 -0.49 0% 0.0%
Mikey Keene 1 carry, -5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -5.00 -1.39 -1.39 0% -3.0%
Joey Gatewood 1 carry, -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.00 -1.84 -1.84 0% -3.0%
TEAM 2 carries, -4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -2.00 -1.01 -2.01 0% 1.0%
Pass targets
Ryan O'Keefe 7 catches (7 targets), 85 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.14 0.64 4.50 57% -11.0%
Nate Craig-Myers 1 catch (1 target), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 3.19 3.19 100% 7.0%
Alec Holler 2 catches (2 targets), 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 1.14 2.28 100% 10.0%
Johnny Richardson 3 catches (3 targets), 29 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.67 0.35 1.05 67% 1.0%
Titus Mokiao-Atimalala 2 catches (2 targets), 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.50 0.17 0.33 50% 1.0%

Florida [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Trent Whittemore 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 17.3 xQBR 0.00 -0.60 -0.60 0% -1.0%
Emory Jones 14/36, 171 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 2 Scks, 26.5 xQBR 4.50 -0.38 -14.27 29% -36.0%
Rush attempts
Malik Davis 7 carries, 86 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.29 1.00 7.02 71% 17.0%
Emory Jones 8 carries, 65 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.12 0.09 0.70 50% 3.0%
Dameon Pierce 13 carries, 57 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.38 0.03 0.44 46% 6.0%
Pass targets
Justin Shorter 3 catches (3 targets), 54 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 18.00 1.26 3.78 100% 14.0%
Kemore Gamble 1 catch (1 target), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.00 2.15 2.15 100% 5.0%
Jacob Copeland 2 catches (2 targets), 35 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 17.50 1.04 2.07 100% 12.0%
Rick Wells 3 catches (3 targets), 41 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.67 0.61 1.84 67% -25.0%
Trent Whittemore 3 catches (3 targets), 22 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.33 0.60 1.79 67% 7.0%
Xzavier Henderson 1 catch (1 target), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.39 0.39 100% 2.0%
Dameon Pierce 1 catch (1 target), -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.00 -0.63 -0.63 0% -2.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q3 10:20 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 9 at UCF 22) Ryan O'Keefe run for 74 yds to the Fla 4 for a 1ST down - UCF 9, FLA 10 5.72 33.9% 14.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 4

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.02 - 0.30 = 5.72

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.70)

Score Difference (End): -1 (5.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.9%

Win Probability (After): 48.7%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:00 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 35) FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Ty'Ron Hopper) to the 50 yard line - UCF 9, FLA 10 -4.60 66.1% -36.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.25 - 2.35 = -4.60

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.35)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-3.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.1%

Win Probability (After): 29.9%

Away Score: 16 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:08 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 46) Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 54 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) - UCF 26, FLA 17 4.47 60.9% 15.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 99

Started Drive at: UCF 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.53 = 4.47

Score Difference (Before): 2 (4.53)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.9%

Win Probability (After): 76.0%

Away Score: 19 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:57 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 10 at FLA 35) UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Quadric Bullard) to the 50 yard line - UCF 16, FLA 10 -3.96 67.8% -29.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: FLA 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.56 - 1.40 = -3.96

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.40)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-8.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.8%

Win Probability (After): 38.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 17 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:40 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 8 at UCF 28) Johnny Richardson run for 38 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST down - UCF 0, FLA 7 3.54 20.8% 4.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 34

Started Drive at: UCF 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - -0.26 = 3.54

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.26)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.8%

Win Probability (After): 25.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:37 ESPN team id 57 (4th & 5 at UCF 27) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 0, FLA 0 -3.22 70.1% -8.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 73

Started Drive at: FLA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.42 - 1.81 = -3.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.81)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.42)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.1%

Win Probability (After): 61.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:25 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 5 at FLA 29) Mikey Keene pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 9 yds to the Fla 20 for a 1ST down - UCF 0, FLA 7 3.19 20.7% 7.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 20

Started Drive at: UCF 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.33 - 1.14 = 3.19

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.86)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.7%

Win Probability (After): 27.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:57 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 10 at UCF 19) Malik Davis run for 19 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) - UCF 16, FLA 17 3.02 52.1% 14.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 99

Started Drive at: FLA 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.98 = 3.02

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.02)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.1%

Win Probability (After): 66.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:18 ESPN team id 57 (4th & 10 at FLA 22) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 29, FLA 17 -2.87 1.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 22

Started Drive at: FLA 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.60 - -0.74 = -2.87

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.74)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.60)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UCF 29, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 7:57 ESPN team id 57 (4th & 7 at UCF 27) Chris Howard 45 yd FG MISSED - UCF 26, FLA 17 -2.85 14.7% -4.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 73

Started Drive at: FLA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.55 - 1.29 = -2.85

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.71)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.55)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.7%

Win Probability (After): 10.3%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q3 10:00 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 35) FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Ty'Ron Hopper) to the 50 yard line - UCF 9, FLA 10 -4.60 66.1% -36.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.25 - 2.35 = -4.60

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.35)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-3.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.1%

Win Probability (After): 29.9%

Away Score: 16 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:57 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 10 at FLA 35) UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Quadric Bullard) to the 50 yard line - UCF 16, FLA 10 -3.96 67.8% -29.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: FLA 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.56 - 1.40 = -3.96

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.40)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-8.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.8%

Win Probability (After): 38.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 17 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:29 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 41) Parker Navarro pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 4 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Gervon Dexter) to the Fla 40 for a 1ST down - UCF 16, FLA 17 0.94 67.7% -25.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 40

Started Drive at: UCF 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 2.44 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.51)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.7%

Win Probability (After): 42.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:50 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 18) Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 20 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST down - UCF 16, FLA 10 0.65 67.4% -24.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 62

Started Drive at: FLA 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.66 - 1.01 = 0.65

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.01)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.4%

Win Probability (After): 43.3%

Away Score: 9 (16) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:08 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 46) Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 54 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) - UCF 26, FLA 17 4.47 60.9% 15.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 99

Started Drive at: UCF 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.53 = 4.47

Score Difference (Before): 2 (4.53)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.9%

Win Probability (After): 76.0%

Away Score: 19 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:20 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 9 at UCF 22) Ryan O'Keefe run for 74 yds to the Fla 4 for a 1ST down - UCF 9, FLA 10 5.72 33.9% 14.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 4

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.02 - 0.30 = 5.72

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.70)

Score Difference (End): -1 (5.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.9%

Win Probability (After): 48.7%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:57 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 10 at UCF 19) Malik Davis run for 19 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) - UCF 16, FLA 17 3.02 52.1% 14.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 99

Started Drive at: FLA 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.98 = 3.02

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.02)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.1%

Win Probability (After): 66.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:04 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & Goal at FLA 4) Daniel Obarski 21 yd FG GOOD - UCF 19, FLA 17 0.08 43.4% 12.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: UCF 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.92 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.92)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 19, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.4%

Win Probability (After): 55.8%

Away Score: 16 (19) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:55 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 40) Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 30 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST down - UCF 26, FLA 17 1.86 20.2% 11.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 30

Started Drive at: FLA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.78 - 1.92 = 1.86

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.08)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-5.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.2%

Win Probability (After): 31.5%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:00 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & Goal at FLA 4) Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) - UCF 16, FLA 10 0.97 50.6% 10.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.03 = 0.97

Score Difference (Before): -1 (5.03)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.6%

Win Probability (After): 61.5%

Away Score: 9 (16) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 1:22 ESPN team id 57 (1st & Goal at UCF 2) Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) - UCF 0, FLA 7 0.64 70.8% 7.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: FLA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.36 = 0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.36)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.8%

Win Probability (After): 77.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:29 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & Goal at FLA 3) Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - UCF 6, FLA 7 -0.01 29.4% -1.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: UCF 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 6.01 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-0.99)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 6, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.4%

Win Probability (After): 28.5%

Away Score: 0 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:16 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & Goal at FLA 17) Daniel Obarski 34 yd FG GOOD - UCF 9, FLA 7 0.26 40.6% 8.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: UCF 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.74 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.74)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.6%

Win Probability (After): 48.9%

Away Score: 6 (9) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:36 ESPN team id 57 (4th & Goal at UCF 9) Chris Howard 26 yd FG GOOD - UCF 9, FLA 10 0.32 61.6% 9.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: FLA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.68 = 0.32

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.68)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.6%

Win Probability (After): 71.5%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:00 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & Goal at FLA 4) Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) - UCF 16, FLA 10 0.97 50.6% 10.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.03 = 0.97

Score Difference (Before): -1 (5.03)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.6%

Win Probability (After): 61.5%

Away Score: 9 (16) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:57 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 10 at UCF 19) Malik Davis run for 19 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) - UCF 16, FLA 17 3.02 52.1% 14.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 99

Started Drive at: FLA 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.98 = 3.02

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.02)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.1%

Win Probability (After): 66.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:04 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & Goal at FLA 4) Daniel Obarski 21 yd FG GOOD - UCF 19, FLA 17 0.08 43.4% 12.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: UCF 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.92 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.92)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 19, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.4%

Win Probability (After): 55.8%

Away Score: 16 (19) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:08 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 46) Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 54 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) - UCF 26, FLA 17 4.47 60.9% 15.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 99

Started Drive at: UCF 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.53 = 4.47

Score Difference (Before): 2 (4.53)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.9%

Win Probability (After): 76.0%

Away Score: 19 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:41 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 9 at FLA 16) Daniel Obarski 33 yd FG GOOD - UCF 29, FLA 17 0.78 98.7% 0.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: UCF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.22 = 0.78

Score Difference (Before): 9 (11.22)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 29, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 26 (29) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 57 (Kickoff at FLA 35) Daniel Obarski kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UCF 0, FLA 0 0.00 69.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: FLA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.3%

Win Probability (After): 69.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 25) FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Jean Delance) to the Fla 20 - UCF 0, FLA 0 -0.78 69.3% -1.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 80

Started Drive at: FLA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.08 - 0.86 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.3%

Win Probability (After): 67.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:53 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 15 at FLA 20) Emory Jones run for 8 yds to the Fla 28 - UCF 0, FLA 0 0.30 68.1% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 72

Started Drive at: FLA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.39 - 0.10 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.1%

Win Probability (After): 68.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:34 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 7 at FLA 28) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 0, FLA 0 -1.29 68.3% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 72

Started Drive at: FLA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.72 - 0.57 = -1.29

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.3%

Win Probability (After): 67.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:30 ESPN team id 57 (3rd & 7 at FLA 28) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 0, FLA 0 -1.52 66.0% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 72

Started Drive at: FLA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.05 - -0.53 = -1.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.0%

Win Probability (After): 63.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:16 ESPN team id 57 (4th & 7 at FLA 28) Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 53 yds , Amari Johnson returns for 13 yds to the UCF 32 - UCF 0, FLA 0 0.31 66.0% 0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 68

Started Drive at: FLA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.74 - -2.05 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.74)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.0%

Win Probability (After): 66.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 14:10 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 32) Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 11 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST down - UCF 0, FLA 0 0.61 34.9% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 57

Started Drive at: UCF 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.34 - 1.73 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.73)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.9%

Win Probability (After): 37.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:50 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 43) Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the UCF 46 - UCF 0, FLA 0 -0.41 37.8% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 54

Started Drive at: UCF 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.99 - 2.39 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.39)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.8%

Win Probability (After): 36.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:26 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 7 at UCF 46) Mikey Keene pass incomplete - UCF 0, FLA 0 -0.95 37.1% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54

Started Drive at: UCF 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 2.02 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.1%

Win Probability (After): 34.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:22 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 7 at UCF 46) Mikey Keene pass incomplete - UCF 0, FLA 0 -1.72 34.7% -3.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54

Started Drive at: UCF 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.69 - 1.03 = -1.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.03)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.7%

Win Probability (After): 30.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:12 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 7 at UCF 46) Andrew Osteen punt for 39 yds , Xzavier Henderson returns for no gain to the Fla 15 - UCF 0, FLA 0 0.09 30.7% 0.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 85

Started Drive at: UCF 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.61 - -0.70 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.70)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.61)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.7%

Win Probability (After): 31.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 13:02 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 15) Dameon Pierce run for 7 yds to the Fla 22 - UCF 0, FLA 0 0.30 69.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 78

Started Drive at: FLA 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.92 - 0.62 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.1%

Win Probability (After): 69.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:40 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 3 at FLA 22) Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds to the Fla 24 - UCF 0, FLA 0 -0.60 69.2% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 76

Started Drive at: FLA 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.95 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.2%

Win Probability (After): 68.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:20 ESPN team id 57 (3rd & 1 at FLA 24) Emory Jones run for no gain to the Fla 24 - UCF 0, FLA 0 -1.82 67.3% -3.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76

Started Drive at: FLA 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.49 - 0.33 = -1.82

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.33)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.3%

Win Probability (After): 63.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:26 ESPN team id 57 (4th & 1 at FLA 24) Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 52 yds , Titus Mokiao-Atimalala returns for no gain to the UCF 24 - UCF 0, FLA 0 0.61 63.0% 0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76

Started Drive at: FLA 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.94 - -1.55 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.55)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.94)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.0%

Win Probability (After): 63.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 11:20 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 24) Mikey Keene run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 19 - UCF 0, FLA 0 -1.39 35.9% -2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 81

Started Drive at: UCF 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.51 - 0.88 = -1.39

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.88)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.9%

Win Probability (After): 33.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:15 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 15 at UCF 19) UCF Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the UCF 14 - UCF 0, FLA 0 -0.29 32.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 86

Started Drive at: UCF 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.81 - -0.52 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.52)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.4%

Win Probability (After): 32.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:14 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 20 at UCF 14) Mikey Keene pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 5 yds to the UCF 19 - UCF 0, FLA 0 -0.97 32.0% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 81

Started Drive at: UCF 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.54 - -0.56 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.56)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.0%

Win Probability (After): 29.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:00 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 15 at UCF 19) Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 4 yds to the UCF 23 - UCF 0, FLA 0 -0.74 29.6% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 77

Started Drive at: UCF 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.06 - -1.32 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.32)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.6%

Win Probability (After): 28.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:18 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 11 at UCF 23) Andrew Osteen punt for 46 yds , Xzavier Henderson returns for 7 yds to the Fla 38 - UCF 0, FLA 0 0.01 28.7% 4.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 62

Started Drive at: UCF 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.15 - -2.16 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.15)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.7%

Win Probability (After): 33.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 9:15 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 38) Emory Jones sacked by Cam Goode for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 37 - UCF 0, FLA 0 -1.08 67.6% -3.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 63

Started Drive at: FLA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 2.09 = -1.08

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.09)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.6%

Win Probability (After): 64.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:01 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 11 at FLA 37) Emory Jones pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - UCF 0, FLA 0 1.82 65.1% 4.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 50

Started Drive at: FLA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.83 - 1.01 = 1.82

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.1%

Win Probability (After): 69.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:17 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at 50) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 0, FLA 0 -0.65 66.8% 1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: FLA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 2.82 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.82)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.8%

Win Probability (After): 68.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:10 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 10 at 50) Malik Davis run for 18 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST down - UCF 0, FLA 0 1.94 66.0% 2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 32

Started Drive at: FLA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 2.14 = 1.94

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.0%

Win Probability (After): 68.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:51 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at UCF 32) Malik Davis run for 4 yds to the UCF 28 - UCF 0, FLA 0 -0.06 74.4% -5.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 28

Started Drive at: FLA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.00 - 4.06 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.4%

Win Probability (After): 69.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:15 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 6 at UCF 28) Emory Jones pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 1 yd to the UCF 27 - UCF 0, FLA 0 -0.70 75.0% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 27

Started Drive at: FLA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.31 - 4.01 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.0%

Win Probability (After): 73.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:43 ESPN team id 57 (3rd & 5 at UCF 27) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 0, FLA 0 -1.55 72.3% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 27

Started Drive at: FLA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.80 - 3.35 = -1.55

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.3%

Win Probability (After): 71.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:37 ESPN team id 57 (4th & 5 at UCF 27) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 0, FLA 0 -3.22 70.1% -8.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 73

Started Drive at: FLA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.42 - 1.81 = -3.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.81)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.42)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.1%

Win Probability (After): 61.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 6:33 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 27) Mikey Keene pass incomplete - UCF 0, FLA 0 -0.85 38.8% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: UCF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 1.42 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.42)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.8%

Win Probability (After): 37.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:28 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 10 at UCF 27) Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for no gain to the UCF 27 - UCF 0, FLA 0 -1.04 37.5% -3.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: UCF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.48 - 0.56 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.56)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.5%

Win Probability (After): 34.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:50 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 10 at UCF 27) Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for no gain to the UCF 27 - UCF 0, FLA 0 -1.40 33.7% -2.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: UCF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.90 - -0.49 = -1.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.7%

Win Probability (After): 31.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:12 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 10 at UCF 27) Andrew Osteen punt for 48 yds , Xzavier Henderson returns for 17 yds to the Fla 42 - UCF 0, FLA 0 -0.39 30.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 58

Started Drive at: UCF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.28 - -1.89 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.89)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.28)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.3%

Win Probability (After): 29.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 5:10 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 42) Dameon Pierce run for 4 yds to the Fla 46 - UCF 0, FLA 0 -0.09 71.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 54

Started Drive at: FLA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.19 - 2.29 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.29)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.1%

Win Probability (After): 71.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:51 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 6 at FLA 46) Dameon Pierce run for 8 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST down - UCF 0, FLA 0 0.99 71.7% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 46

Started Drive at: FLA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.18 - 2.19 = 0.99

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.7%

Win Probability (After): 72.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:10 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at UCF 46) Dameon Pierce run for 5 yds to the UCF 41 - UCF 0, FLA 0 0.10 72.7% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 41

Started Drive at: FLA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 3.18 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.7%

Win Probability (After): 73.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:36 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 5 at UCF 41) Emory Jones run for 16 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST down - UCF 0, FLA 0 1.09 70.3% 4.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 25

Started Drive at: FLA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.37 - 3.27 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.27)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.3%

Win Probability (After): 74.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:10 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at UCF 25) Dameon Pierce run for 6 yds to the UCF 19 - UCF 0, FLA 0 0.35 72.0% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 19

Started Drive at: FLA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.71 - 4.36 = 0.35

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.36)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.0%

Win Probability (After): 73.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:45 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 4 at UCF 19) Dameon Pierce run for no gain to the UCF 19 - UCF 0, FLA 0 -0.74 70.0% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: FLA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.97 - 4.71 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.71)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.0%

Win Probability (After): 71.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:05 ESPN team id 57 (3rd & 4 at UCF 19) Emory Jones pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 15 yds to the UCF 4 for a 1ST down - UCF 0, FLA 0 2.15 67.5% 4.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 4

Started Drive at: FLA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.11 - 3.96 = 2.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.96)

Score Difference (End): 0 (6.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.5%

Win Probability (After): 72.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:50 ESPN team id 57 (1st & Goal at UCF 4) FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Jonathan Odom) to the UCF 9 - UCF 0, FLA 0 -0.74 71.1% -0.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 9

Started Drive at: FLA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.36 - 6.11 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.1%

Win Probability (After): 70.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:30 ESPN team id 57 (1st & Goal at UCF 9) UCF Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Divaad Wilson) to the UCF 2 for a 1ST down - UCF 0, FLA 0 0.99 69.9% 1.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 2

Started Drive at: FLA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.36 - 5.37 = 0.99

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (6.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.9%

Win Probability (After): 71.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:22 ESPN team id 57 (1st & Goal at UCF 2) Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) - UCF 0, FLA 7 0.64 70.8% 7.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: FLA 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.36 = 0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.36)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.8%

Win Probability (After): 77.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:22 ESPN team id 2116 (Kickoff at UCF 35) Chris Howard kickoff for 57 yds , Ryan O'Keefe return for 18 yds to the UCF 26 - UCF 0, FLA 7 -0.91 21.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 74

Started Drive at: UCF 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.77 - 0.14 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.86)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.1%

Win Probability (After): 20.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:10 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 26) Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 28 - UCF 0, FLA 7 -0.78 21.5% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 72

Started Drive at: UCF 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.29 - 0.49 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.51)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.5%

Win Probability (After): 20.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:40 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 8 at UCF 28) Johnny Richardson run for 38 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST down - UCF 0, FLA 7 3.54 20.8% 4.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 34

Started Drive at: UCF 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - -0.26 = 3.54

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.26)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.8%

Win Probability (After): 25.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:33 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at FLA 34) Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the Fla 33 - UCF 0, FLA 7 -0.40 25.7% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 33

Started Drive at: UCF 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.88 - 3.28 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.72)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.7%

Win Probability (After): 24.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:10 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 9 at FLA 33) Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Fla 28 - UCF 0, FLA 7 0.08 26.5% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 28

Started Drive at: UCF 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.95 - 2.87 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.13)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.5%

Win Probability (After): 24.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:55 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 4 at FLA 28) Joey Gatewood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 29 - UCF 0, FLA 7 -1.84 22.9% -3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 29

Started Drive at: UCF 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 2.94 = -1.84

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.06)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.9%

Win Probability (After): 19.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:28 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 5 at FLA 29) Timeout FLORIDA, clock 14:28 - UCF 0, FLA 7 0.00 20.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 29

Started Drive at: UCF 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 1.10 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.90)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.8%

Win Probability (After): 20.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:25 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 5 at FLA 29) Mikey Keene pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 9 yds to the Fla 20 for a 1ST down - UCF 0, FLA 7 3.19 20.7% 7.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 20

Started Drive at: UCF 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.33 - 1.14 = 3.19

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.86)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.7%

Win Probability (After): 27.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:59 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at FLA 20) Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Fla 15 - UCF 0, FLA 7 0.28 28.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 15

Started Drive at: UCF 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.59 - 4.31 = 0.28

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.69)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.2%

Win Probability (After): 28.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:12 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 5 at FLA 15) Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Fla 13 - UCF 0, FLA 7 -0.51 28.8% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 13

Started Drive at: UCF 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.11 - 4.62 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.38)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.8%

Win Probability (After): 27.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:45 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 3 at FLA 13) Isaiah Bowser run for 10 yds to the Fla 3 for a 1ST down - UCF 0, FLA 7 1.91 26.7% 3.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 3

Started Drive at: UCF 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.03 - 4.12 = 1.91

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.88)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-0.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 0, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.7%

Win Probability (After): 30.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:29 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & Goal at FLA 3) Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - UCF 6, FLA 7 -0.01 29.4% -1.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: UCF 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 6.01 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-0.99)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 6, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.4%

Win Probability (After): 28.5%

Away Score: 0 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:29 ESPN team id 57 (Kickoff at FLA 35) Daniel Obarski kickoff for 57 yds , Malik Davis return for 22 yds to the Fla 30 - UCF 6, FLA 7 -0.50 73.6% -0.6%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 70

Started Drive at: FLA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.62 - 1.13 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.13)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 6, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.6%

Win Probability (After): 72.9%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:15 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 30) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 6, FLA 7 -0.78 70.6% 2.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: FLA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 1.73 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.73)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 6, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.6%

Win Probability (After): 73.1%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:10 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 10 at FLA 30) Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 18 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST down - UCF 6, FLA 7 1.65 71.8% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 52

Started Drive at: FLA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.67 - 1.02 = 1.65

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.02)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 6, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.8%

Win Probability (After): 72.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:45 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 48) Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 16 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST down - UCF 6, FLA 7 0.91 74.0% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 36

Started Drive at: FLA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.59 - 2.68 = 0.91

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.68)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 6, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.0%

Win Probability (After): 75.8%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:24 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at UCF 36) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 6, FLA 7 -0.56 75.5% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: FLA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.01 - 3.57 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.57)

Score Difference (End): 1 (4.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 6, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.5%

Win Probability (After): 74.4%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:23 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 10 at UCF 36) FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Rick Wells) to the UCF 41 - UCF 6, FLA 7 -0.80 74.5% -1.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 41

Started Drive at: FLA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.20 - 3.00 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): 1 (4.00)

Score Difference (End): 1 (3.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 6, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.5%

Win Probability (After): 73.3%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:18 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 15 at UCF 41) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 6, FLA 7 -0.91 73.2% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41

Started Drive at: FLA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 2.17 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): 1 (3.17)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 6, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.2%

Win Probability (After): 71.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:08 ESPN team id 57 (3rd & 15 at UCF 41) Emory Jones run for 7 yds to the UCF 34 - UCF 6, FLA 7 -0.44 73.0% -2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 34

Started Drive at: FLA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.77 - 1.21 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.21)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 6, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.0%

Win Probability (After): 70.3%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:24 ESPN team id 57 (4th & 8 at UCF 34) Chris Howard 51 yd FG MISSED - UCF 6, FLA 7 -2.80 71.0% -5.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 66

Started Drive at: FLA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.94 - 0.86 = -2.80

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.86)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.94)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UCF 6, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.0%

Win Probability (After): 65.8%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 10:15 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 34) Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 36 - UCF 6, FLA 7 -0.47 34.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 64

Started Drive at: UCF 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.50 - 1.98 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.98)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 6, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.6%

Win Probability (After): 34.4%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:01 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 8 at UCF 36) Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 12 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST down - UCF 6, FLA 7 1.14 34.1% 3.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 52

Started Drive at: UCF 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.67 - 1.53 = 1.14

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.53)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 6, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.1%

Win Probability (After): 37.6%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:45 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 48) Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Fla 48 - UCF 6, FLA 7 -0.03 39.9% -2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 48

Started Drive at: UCF 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 2.61 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.61)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 6, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.9%

Win Probability (After): 37.2%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:05 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 6 at FLA 48) Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 7 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST down - UCF 6, FLA 7 0.86 36.5% 4.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 41

Started Drive at: UCF 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.30 - 2.43 = 0.86

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.43)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 6, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.5%

Win Probability (After): 41.0%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:33 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at FLA 41) Ryan O'Keefe run for 34 yds to the Fla 7 for a 1ST down - UCF 6, FLA 7 2.24 37.9% 4.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 7

Started Drive at: UCF 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.38 - 3.14 = 2.24

Score Difference (Before): -1 (2.14)

Score Difference (End): -1 (4.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 6, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.9%

Win Probability (After): 42.0%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:15 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & Goal at FLA 7) Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 8 - UCF 6, FLA 7 -0.77 42.1% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 8

Started Drive at: UCF 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.53 - 5.29 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): -1 (4.29)

Score Difference (End): -1 (3.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 6, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.1%

Win Probability (After): 41.3%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:40 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & Goal at FLA 8) Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Fla 7 - UCF 6, FLA 7 -0.70 41.3% -2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 7

Started Drive at: UCF 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.76 - 4.46 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.46)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 6, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.3%

Win Probability (After): 38.6%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:15 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & Goal at FLA 7) Mikey Keene sacked by Ty'Ron Hopper for a loss of 10 yards to the Fla 17 - UCF 6, FLA 7 -1.33 41.0% -6.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 17

Started Drive at: UCF 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 3.80 = -1.33

Score Difference (Before): -1 (2.80)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 6, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.0%

Win Probability (After): 35.0%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:16 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & Goal at FLA 17) Daniel Obarski 34 yd FG GOOD - UCF 9, FLA 7 0.26 40.6% 8.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: UCF 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.74 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.74)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.6%

Win Probability (After): 48.9%

Away Score: 6 (9) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 6:16 ESPN team id 57 (Kickoff at FLA 35) Daniel Obarski kickoff for 64 yds , Malik Davis return for 26 yds to the Fla 27 - UCF 9, FLA 7 -0.82 59.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 73

Started Drive at: FLA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.49 - 1.30 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.70)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.8%

Win Probability (After): 59.2%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:01 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 27) Dameon Pierce run for 4 yds to the Fla 31 - UCF 9, FLA 7 -0.06 60.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 69

Started Drive at: FLA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.38 - 1.44 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.56)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.3%

Win Probability (After): 59.6%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:45 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 6 at FLA 31) Emory Jones run for 16 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST down - UCF 9, FLA 7 1.41 59.3% 4.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 53

Started Drive at: FLA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.44 - 1.03 = 1.41

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.97)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.3%

Win Probability (After): 63.4%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:00 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 47) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 9, FLA 7 -0.71 63.0% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: FLA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.77 - 2.48 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.48)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.0%

Win Probability (After): 61.6%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:45 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 10 at FLA 47) Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 3 yds to the 50 yard line FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Justin Shorter) to the Fla 40 - UCF 9, FLA 7 -0.46 61.0% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 60

Started Drive at: FLA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.32 - 1.88 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.23)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.0%

Win Probability (After): 58.7%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:30 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 17 at FLA 40) Emory Jones pass complete to Dameon Pierce for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 39 - UCF 9, FLA 7 -0.63 57.7% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 61

Started Drive at: FLA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 1.25 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.75)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.7%

Win Probability (After): 56.1%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:44 ESPN team id 57 (3rd & 18 at FLA 39) Emory Jones run for 20 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST down - UCF 9, FLA 7 2.38 54.9% 9.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 41

Started Drive at: FLA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.04 - 0.66 = 2.38

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.34)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.9%

Win Probability (After): 64.3%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:09 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at UCF 41) Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 18 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST down - UCF 9, FLA 7 1.44 63.2% 5.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 23

Started Drive at: FLA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.06 - 2.61 = 1.44

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.61)

Score Difference (End): -2 (2.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.2%

Win Probability (After): 68.7%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:50 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at UCF 23) Dameon Pierce run for 14 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST down - UCF 9, FLA 7 1.14 68.5% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 9

Started Drive at: FLA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.94 - 3.80 = 1.14

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.80)

Score Difference (End): -2 (2.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.5%

Win Probability (After): 70.0%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:40 ESPN team id 57 (1st & Goal at UCF 9) Emory Jones run for no gain to the UCF 9 - UCF 9, FLA 7 -0.58 70.1% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: FLA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 4.87 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -2 (2.87)

Score Difference (End): -2 (2.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.1%

Win Probability (After): 69.1%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:47 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & Goal at UCF 9) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 9, FLA 7 -0.58 69.2% -3.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: FLA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.50 - 4.09 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -2 (2.09)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.2%

Win Probability (After): 66.1%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:41 ESPN team id 57 (3rd & Goal at UCF 9) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 9, FLA 7 -0.74 66.2% -4.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: FLA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.67 - 3.41 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): -2 (1.41)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.2%

Win Probability (After): 61.7%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:36 ESPN team id 57 (4th & Goal at UCF 9) Chris Howard 26 yd FG GOOD - UCF 9, FLA 10 0.32 61.6% 9.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: FLA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.68 = 0.32

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.68)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.6%

Win Probability (After): 71.5%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:36 ESPN team id 2116 (Kickoff at UCF 35) Chris Howard kickoff for 65 yds , Ryan O'Keefe return for 38 yds to the UCF 38 - UCF 9, FLA 10 0.04 36.7% 0.7%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 62

Started Drive at: UCF 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.98 - 0.93 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.07)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.7%

Win Probability (After): 37.4%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:28 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 38) Mikey Keene pass incomplete - UCF 9, FLA 10 -0.19 39.0% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: UCF 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 1.31 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.31)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.0%

Win Probability (After): 37.3%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:19 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 10 at UCF 38) Mikey Keene pass incomplete - UCF 9, FLA 10 -0.51 37.3% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: UCF 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.62 - 1.13 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.13)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.3%

Win Probability (After): 34.9%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:19 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 10 at UCF 38) Timeout UCF, clock 01:19 - UCF 9, FLA 10 0.00 34.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: UCF 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.62 - 0.62 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.38)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.8%

Win Probability (After): 34.8%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:12 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 10 at UCF 38) Mikey Keene sacked by Brenton Cox Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 34 - UCF 9, FLA 10 -1.08 36.0% -5.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 66

Started Drive at: UCF 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.25 - 0.83 = -1.08

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.17)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.0%

Win Probability (After): 30.3%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:12 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 14 at UCF 34) Timeout FLORIDA, clock 01:12 - UCF 9, FLA 10 0.00 31.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: UCF 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.25 - -0.25 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-1.25)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.3%

Win Probability (After): 31.3%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:05 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 14 at UCF 34) Andrew Osteen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Fenley Graham at the Fla 29 - UCF 9, FLA 10 -0.70 31.8% -1.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 71

Started Drive at: UCF 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.96 - -0.26 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-1.26)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.96)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.8%

Win Probability (After): 30.6%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:56 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 29) Emory Jones pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 5 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Tatum Bethune) to the Fla 49 for a 1ST down - UCF 9, FLA 10 0.39 69.4% 1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 51

Started Drive at: FLA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 0.64 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.96)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.4%

Win Probability (After): 71.3%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:56 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 49) Timeout UCF, clock 00:56 - UCF 9, FLA 10 0.00 71.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 51

Started Drive at: FLA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 1.35 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.35)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.3%

Win Probability (After): 71.3%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:50 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 49) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 9, FLA 10 -0.15 71.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 51

Started Drive at: FLA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 1.22 = -0.15

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.22)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.3%

Win Probability (After): 71.0%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:40 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 10 at FLA 49) Malik Davis run for 5 yds to the UCF 46 - UCF 9, FLA 10 0.10 71.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 46

Started Drive at: FLA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 1.00 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.00)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.0%

Win Probability (After): 70.9%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:37 ESPN team id 57 (3rd & 5 at UCF 46) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 9, FLA 10 -0.77 71.0% -3.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: FLA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.27 - 1.05 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.05)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.0%

Win Probability (After): 67.7%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:19 ESPN team id 57 (4th & 5 at UCF 46) Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Titus Mokiao-Atimalala at the UCF 8 - UCF 9, FLA 10 -0.39 67.8% -1.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 92

Started Drive at: FLA 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.17 - 0.22 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.22)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.83)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.8%

Win Probability (After): 66.0%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:10 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 8) Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the UCF 11 - UCF 9, FLA 10 -0.04 33.7% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 89

Started Drive at: UCF 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.08 - 0.04 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.96)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.7%

Win Probability (After): 34.2%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2116 (Kickoff at UCF 35) Chris Howard kickoff for 62 yds - UCF 9, FLA 10 1.00 34.2% 2.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: UCF 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.72 - 0.71 = 1.00

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.29)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.2%

Win Probability (After): 36.2%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:52 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 35) Isaiah Bowser run for 36 yds to the Fla 29 for a 1ST down - UCF 9, FLA 10 1.54 39.1% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 29

Started Drive at: UCF 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.81 - 2.27 = 1.54

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.27)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.1%

Win Probability (After): 41.9%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:30 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at FLA 29) Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 31 - UCF 9, FLA 10 -0.92 43.2% -2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 31

Started Drive at: UCF 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.13 - 4.05 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.05)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.2%

Win Probability (After): 40.4%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:55 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 12 at FLA 31) Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Fla 30 - UCF 9, FLA 10 -0.80 40.2% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 30

Started Drive at: UCF 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.08 - 2.88 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.88)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.2%

Win Probability (After): 38.4%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:14 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 11 at FLA 30) Ryan O'Keefe run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 33 - UCF 9, FLA 10 -1.39 38.4% -5.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 33

Started Drive at: UCF 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.71 - 2.10 = -1.39

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.10)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.4%

Win Probability (After): 33.4%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:24 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 14 at FLA 33) Daniel Obarski 51 yd FG MISSED - UCF 9, FLA 10 -2.52 32.9% -2.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 67

Started Drive at: UCF 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.85 - 0.67 = -2.52

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.33)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.85)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.9%

Win Probability (After): 30.4%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 12:12 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 33) Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds to the Fla 35 - UCF 9, FLA 10 -0.44 68.7% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 65

Started Drive at: FLA 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.45 - 1.90 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.90)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.7%

Win Probability (After): 68.0%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:47 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 8 at FLA 35) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 9, FLA 10 -0.82 68.2% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: FLA 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - 1.40 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.40)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.2%

Win Probability (After): 66.4%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:30 ESPN team id 57 (3rd & 8 at FLA 35) Emory Jones sacked by Tre'mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 33 - UCF 9, FLA 10 -1.69 66.5% -6.8%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 67

Started Drive at: FLA 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.20 - 0.49 = -1.69

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.49)

Score Difference (End): 1 (-0.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.5%

Win Probability (After): 59.7%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:05 ESPN team id 57 (4th & 10 at FLA 33) Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Amari Johnson at the UCF 21 - UCF 9, FLA 10 0.38 58.4% 7.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 79

Started Drive at: FLA 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.77 - -1.16 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): 1 (-0.16)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.23)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.4%

Win Probability (After): 65.5%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:57 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 21) Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the UCF 22 - UCF 9, FLA 10 -0.68 34.0% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 78

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 0.74 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.26)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.0%

Win Probability (After): 32.2%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:20 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 9 at UCF 22) Ryan O'Keefe run for 74 yds to the Fla 4 for a 1ST down - UCF 9, FLA 10 5.72 33.9% 14.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 4

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.02 - 0.30 = 5.72

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.70)

Score Difference (End): -1 (5.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.9%

Win Probability (After): 48.7%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:00 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & Goal at FLA 4) Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) - UCF 16, FLA 10 0.97 50.6% 10.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.03 = 0.97

Score Difference (Before): -1 (5.03)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.6%

Win Probability (After): 61.5%

Away Score: 9 (16) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:00 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 35) FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Ty'Ron Hopper) to the 50 yard line - UCF 9, FLA 10 -4.60 66.1% -36.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.25 - 2.35 = -4.60

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.35)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-3.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.1%

Win Probability (After): 29.9%

Away Score: 16 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:00 ESPN team id 57 (Kickoff at 50) Daniel Obarski kickoff for 32 yds , Xzavier Henderson return for no gain to the Fla 18 - UCF 9, FLA 10 -1.43 66.6% -1.6%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 82

Started Drive at: FLA 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.15 - 1.28 = -1.43

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.28)

Score Difference (End): 1 (0.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 9, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.6%

Win Probability (After): 65.0%

Away Score: 9 (9) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:50 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 18) Emory Jones pass complete to Rick Wells for 20 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST down - UCF 16, FLA 10 0.65 67.4% -24.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 62

Started Drive at: FLA 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.66 - 1.01 = 0.65

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.01)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.4%

Win Probability (After): 43.3%

Away Score: 9 (16) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:25 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 38) Malik Davis run for 32 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST down - UCF 16, FLA 10 2.10 44.9% 5.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 30

Started Drive at: FLA 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.95 - 1.85 = 2.10

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.15)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.9%

Win Probability (After): 50.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:49 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at UCF 30) Emory Jones pass complete to Trent Whittemore for 8 yds to the UCF 22 - UCF 16, FLA 10 0.67 50.1% 4.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 22

Started Drive at: FLA 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.63 - 3.97 = 0.67

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.03)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-1.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.1%

Win Probability (After): 54.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:29 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 2 at UCF 22) Malik Davis run for 3 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST down - UCF 16, FLA 10 0.07 53.6% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 19

Started Drive at: FLA 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.64 - 4.57 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-1.43)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-1.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.6%

Win Probability (After): 53.9%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:04 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at UCF 19) Trent Whittemore pass incomplete - UCF 16, FLA 10 -0.60 53.8% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: FLA 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.99 - 4.60 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-1.40)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.8%

Win Probability (After): 52.3%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:57 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 10 at UCF 19) Malik Davis run for 19 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) - UCF 16, FLA 17 3.02 52.1% 14.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 99

Started Drive at: FLA 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.98 = 3.02

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.02)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.1%

Win Probability (After): 66.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:57 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 10 at FLA 35) UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Quadric Bullard) to the 50 yard line - UCF 16, FLA 10 -3.96 67.8% -29.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: FLA 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.56 - 1.40 = -3.96

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.40)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-8.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.8%

Win Probability (After): 38.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 17 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:57 ESPN team id 2116 (Kickoff at 50) Chris Howard on-side kick recovered by UCF at the UCF 41 - UCF 16, FLA 10 1.03 63.6% 4.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 59

Started Drive at: UCF 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.51 - 1.48 = 1.03

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.48)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.6%

Win Probability (After): 67.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:29 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 41) Parker Navarro pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 4 yds to the Fla 45 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Gervon Dexter) to the Fla 40 for a 1ST down - UCF 16, FLA 17 0.94 67.7% -25.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 40

Started Drive at: UCF 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 2.44 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.51)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.7%

Win Probability (After): 42.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:19 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at FLA 40) Mikey Keene pass incomplete - UCF 16, FLA 17 -0.64 42.4% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40

Started Drive at: UCF 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 3.45 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): -1 (2.45)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.4%

Win Probability (After): 40.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:14 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 10 at FLA 40) Keene, Mikey pass incomplete, PENALTY FLORIDA roughing passer (Cox Jr., Brenton) 15 yards to the FLORIDA25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF. - UCF 16, FLA 17 1.33 40.7% 4.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 25

Started Drive at: UCF 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.20 - 2.88 = 1.33

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.88)

Score Difference (End): -1 (3.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.7%

Win Probability (After): 45.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:08 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at FLA 25) Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Fla 21 - UCF 16, FLA 17 0.06 45.0% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 21

Started Drive at: UCF 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 4.24 = 0.06

Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.24)

Score Difference (End): -1 (3.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.0%

Win Probability (After): 45.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:38 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 6 at FLA 21) Mikey Keene pass incomplete - UCF 16, FLA 17 -0.75 46.4% -3.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: UCF 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.54 - 4.29 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.29)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.4%

Win Probability (After): 42.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:30 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 6 at FLA 21) Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 7 yds to the Fla 14 for a 1ST down - UCF 16, FLA 17 1.42 42.8% 5.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 14

Started Drive at: UCF 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.94 - 3.52 = 1.42

Score Difference (Before): -1 (2.52)

Score Difference (End): -1 (3.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.8%

Win Probability (After): 48.2%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:02 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at FLA 14) Parker Navarro run for 3 yds to the Fla 11 - UCF 16, FLA 17 -0.32 48.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 11

Started Drive at: UCF 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.64 - 4.96 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.96)

Score Difference (End): -1 (3.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.4%

Win Probability (After): 48.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:25 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 7 at FLA 11) Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 5 yds to the Fla 6 - UCF 16, FLA 17 0.30 48.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 6

Started Drive at: UCF 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.95 - 4.65 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.65)

Score Difference (End): -1 (3.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 48.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:49 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 2 at FLA 6) Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Fla 4 for a 1ST down - UCF 16, FLA 17 1.04 49.5% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 4

Started Drive at: UCF 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.03 - 4.99 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.99)

Score Difference (End): -1 (5.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.5%

Win Probability (After): 50.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:30 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & Goal at FLA 4) Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 8 - UCF 16, FLA 17 -1.30 52.0% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 8

Started Drive at: UCF 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.75 - 6.05 = -1.30

Score Difference (Before): -1 (5.05)

Score Difference (End): -1 (3.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.0%

Win Probability (After): 50.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:40 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & Goal at FLA 8) Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 4 yds to the Fla 4 - UCF 16, FLA 17 -0.21 49.3% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 4

Started Drive at: UCF 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.54 - 4.75 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.75)

Score Difference (End): -1 (3.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.3%

Win Probability (After): 48.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:10 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & Goal at FLA 4) Joey Gatewood pass incomplete - UCF 16, FLA 17 -1.62 47.9% -5.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: UCF 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 4.54 = -1.62

Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.54)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 16, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.9%

Win Probability (After): 42.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:04 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & Goal at FLA 4) Daniel Obarski 21 yd FG GOOD - UCF 19, FLA 17 0.08 43.4% 12.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: UCF 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.92 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.92)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 19, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.4%

Win Probability (After): 55.8%

Away Score: 16 (19) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:04 ESPN team id 57 (Kickoff at FLA 35) Daniel Obarski kickoff for 65 yds , Malik Davis return for 28 yds to the Fla 28 - UCF 19, FLA 17 -0.91 52.6% -2.8%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 72

Started Drive at: FLA 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - 0.86 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.14)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 19, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 49.8%

Away Score: 19 (19) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:50 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 28) Dameon Pierce run for 1 yd to the Fla 29 - UCF 19, FLA 17 -0.66 54.5% -2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 71

Started Drive at: FLA 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - 1.24 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.76)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 19, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.5%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 19 (19) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:25 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 9 at FLA 29) Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 5 yds to the Fla 34 - UCF 19, FLA 17 0.22 50.9% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 66

Started Drive at: FLA 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - 0.63 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.37)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 19, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.9%

Win Probability (After): 51.8%

Away Score: 19 (19) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:51 ESPN team id 57 (3rd & 4 at FLA 34) FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Jacob Copeland) to the Fla 19 - UCF 19, FLA 17 -2.29 48.2% -4.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 81

Started Drive at: FLA 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.43 - 0.85 = -2.29

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.15)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-3.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 19, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.4%

Away Score: 19 (19) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:28 ESPN team id 57 (3rd & 19 at FLA 19) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 19, FLA 17 -1.13 40.8% -2.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 81

Started Drive at: FLA 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.36 - -1.23 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-3.23)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-4.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 19, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.8%

Win Probability (After): 38.0%

Away Score: 19 (19) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:16 ESPN team id 57 (4th & 19 at FLA 19) Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 35 yds, downed at the UCF 46 - UCF 19, FLA 17 -0.34 38.7% 0.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 54

Started Drive at: FLA 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.53 - -2.19 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-4.19)

Score Difference (End): 2 (4.53)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UCF 19, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.7%

Win Probability (After): 39.1%

Away Score: 19 (19) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:08 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 46) Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 54 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) - UCF 26, FLA 17 4.47 60.9% 15.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 99

Started Drive at: UCF 46

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.53 = 4.47

Score Difference (Before): 2 (4.53)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.9%

Win Probability (After): 76.0%

Away Score: 19 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:08 ESPN team id 57 (Kickoff at FLA 35) Daniel Obarski kickoff for 65 yds , Malik Davis return for 33 yds to the Fla 33 - UCF 26, FLA 17 -0.27 23.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 67

Started Drive at: FLA 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.04 - 0.31 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.69)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.8%

Win Probability (After): 23.8%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:51 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 33) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 26, FLA 17 -0.72 27.3% -3.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: FLA 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.40 - 1.12 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.88)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.3%

Win Probability (After): 23.6%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:45 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 10 at FLA 33) Dameon Pierce run for 2 yds to the Fla 35 - UCF 26, FLA 17 -0.48 23.3% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 65

Started Drive at: FLA 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.41 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.59)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.3%

Win Probability (After): 22.1%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:14 ESPN team id 57 (3rd & 8 at FLA 35) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 26, FLA 17 -1.46 21.2% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: FLA 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.51 - -0.04 = -1.46

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-9.04)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-10.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.2%

Win Probability (After): 18.9%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:02 ESPN team id 57 (4th & 8 at FLA 35) Jeremy Crawshaw punt for 44 yds, downed at the UCF 21 - UCF 26, FLA 17 -0.20 17.8% 2.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 79

Started Drive at: FLA 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.66 - -1.46 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-10.46)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.66)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.8%

Win Probability (After): 20.2%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 0:01 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 21) Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the UCF 26 - UCF 26, FLA 17 0.02 79.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 74

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.67 - 1.66 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.66)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.8%

Win Probability (After): 79.9%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:55 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 5 at UCF 26) Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST down - UCF 26, FLA 17 0.60 77.8% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 67

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 1.67 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.67)

Score Difference (End): 9 (11.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.8%

Win Probability (After): 79.1%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:10 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 33) Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the UCF 40 - UCF 26, FLA 17 0.48 80.3% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 60

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.70 - 2.22 = 0.48

Score Difference (Before): 9 (11.22)

Score Difference (End): 9 (11.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.3%

Win Probability (After): 80.5%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:45 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 3 at UCF 40) Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 39 - UCF 26, FLA 17 -1.07 85.1% -5.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 61

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.57 - 2.64 = -1.07

Score Difference (Before): 9 (11.64)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.1%

Win Probability (After): 79.7%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:02 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 4 at UCF 39) Mikey Keene pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 6 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST down - UCF 26, FLA 17 1.30 83.0% 3.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 55

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.84 - 1.54 = 1.30

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.54)

Score Difference (End): 9 (11.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.0%

Win Probability (After): 86.1%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:30 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 45) Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 47 - UCF 26, FLA 17 -0.50 87.2% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 53

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 2.79 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 9 (11.79)

Score Difference (End): 9 (11.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.2%

Win Probability (After): 86.1%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:45 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 8 at UCF 47) Isaiah Bowser run for 9 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST down - UCF 26, FLA 17 1.05 85.7% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 44

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.40 - 2.35 = 1.05

Score Difference (Before): 9 (11.35)

Score Difference (End): 9 (12.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.7%

Win Probability (After): 87.4%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:05 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at FLA 44) Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the Fla 38 - UCF 26, FLA 17 0.22 88.0% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 38

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.57 - 3.35 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): 9 (12.35)

Score Difference (End): 9 (12.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.0%

Win Probability (After): 87.1%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:31 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 4 at FLA 38) Mikey Keene pass incomplete - UCF 26, FLA 17 -0.79 90.3% -3.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 38

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.73 - 3.52 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): 9 (12.52)

Score Difference (End): 9 (11.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.3%

Win Probability (After): 86.8%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:25 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 4 at FLA 38) Parker Navarro pass incomplete - UCF 26, FLA 17 -1.79 88.4% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 38

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 2.74 = -1.79

Score Difference (Before): 9 (11.74)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.4%

Win Probability (After): 86.2%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:16 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 4 at FLA 38) Andrew Osteen punt for 38 yds for a touchback - UCF 26, FLA 17 -1.43 86.3% -3.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 80

Started Drive at: UCF 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.50 - 0.93 = -1.43

Score Difference (Before): 9 (9.93)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.50)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.3%

Win Probability (After): 82.9%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:09 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 20) Emory Jones pass complete to Justin Shorter for 20 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST down - UCF 26, FLA 17 1.42 17.0% 7.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 60

Started Drive at: FLA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.96 - 0.53 = 1.42

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.47)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.0%

Win Probability (After): 24.0%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:55 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 40) Emory Jones pass complete to Jacob Copeland for 30 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST down - UCF 26, FLA 17 1.86 20.2% 11.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 30

Started Drive at: FLA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.78 - 1.92 = 1.86

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.08)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-5.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.2%

Win Probability (After): 31.5%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:23 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at UCF 30) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 26, FLA 17 -0.52 27.9% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: FLA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.20 - 3.73 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-5.27)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-5.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.9%

Win Probability (After): 25.6%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:05 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 10 at UCF 30) Malik Davis run for 5 yds to the UCF 25 - UCF 26, FLA 17 -0.14 25.2% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 25

Started Drive at: FLA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.08 - 3.22 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-5.78)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-5.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.2%

Win Probability (After): 25.0%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:47 ESPN team id 57 (3rd & 5 at UCF 25) Emory Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 27 - UCF 26, FLA 17 -1.64 24.1% -7.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 27

Started Drive at: FLA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.40 - 3.04 = -1.64

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-5.96)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.1%

Win Probability (After): 16.5%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:57 ESPN team id 57 (4th & 7 at UCF 27) Chris Howard 45 yd FG MISSED - UCF 26, FLA 17 -2.85 14.7% -4.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 73

Started Drive at: FLA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.55 - 1.29 = -2.85

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.71)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.55)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.7%

Win Probability (After): 10.3%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 7:52 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at UCF 27) Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the UCF 30 - UCF 26, FLA 17 -0.44 89.9% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 70

Started Drive at: UCF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.06 - 1.50 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.50)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.9%

Win Probability (After): 89.0%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:10 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 7 at UCF 30) Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - UCF 26, FLA 17 1.48 90.0% 2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 50

Started Drive at: UCF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.64 - 1.16 = 1.48

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.16)

Score Difference (End): 9 (11.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.0%

Win Probability (After): 92.3%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:19 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at 50) Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Fla 46 - UCF 26, FLA 17 0.05 94.6% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 46

Started Drive at: UCF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.79 - 2.75 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): 9 (11.75)

Score Difference (End): 9 (11.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.6%

Win Probability (After): 93.6%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:30 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 6 at FLA 46) Ryan O'Keefe run for 5 yds to the Fla 41 - UCF 26, FLA 17 0.56 94.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 41

Started Drive at: UCF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.98 - 2.41 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): 9 (11.41)

Score Difference (End): 9 (11.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.6%

Win Probability (After): 94.1%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:55 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 1 at FLA 41) Isaiah Bowser run for 24 yds to the Fla 17 for a 1ST down - UCF 26, FLA 17 1.91 95.9% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 17

Started Drive at: UCF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.63 - 2.72 = 1.91

Score Difference (Before): 9 (11.72)

Score Difference (End): 9 (13.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.9%

Win Probability (After): 96.9%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:20 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at FLA 17) Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Fla 16 - UCF 26, FLA 17 -0.44 98.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 16

Started Drive at: UCF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.20 - 4.63 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 9 (13.63)

Score Difference (End): 9 (13.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.4%

Win Probability (After): 97.6%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:36 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 9 at FLA 16) Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Fla 12 - UCF 26, FLA 17 -0.07 98.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 12

Started Drive at: UCF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.98 - 4.05 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): 9 (13.05)

Score Difference (End): 9 (12.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.4%

Win Probability (After): 98.1%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:48 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 5 at FLA 12) Timeout UCF, clock 02:48 - UCF 26, FLA 17 0.00 98.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 12

Started Drive at: UCF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.98 - 3.98 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 9 (12.98)

Score Difference (End): 9 (12.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.9%

Win Probability (After): 98.9%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:47 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 5 at FLA 12) Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 16 - UCF 26, FLA 17 -1.46 98.8% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 16

Started Drive at: UCF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.25 - 3.71 = -1.46

Score Difference (Before): 9 (12.71)

Score Difference (End): 9 (11.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.8%

Win Probability (After): 98.0%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:45 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 9 at FLA 16) Timeout FLORIDA, clock 02:45 - UCF 26, FLA 17 0.00 98.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: UCF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.25 - 2.25 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 9 (11.25)

Score Difference (End): 9 (11.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 26, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:41 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 9 at FLA 16) Daniel Obarski 33 yd FG GOOD - UCF 29, FLA 17 0.78 98.7% 0.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: UCF 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.22 = 0.78

Score Difference (Before): 9 (11.22)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 29, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 26 (29) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:41 ESPN team id 57 (Kickoff at FLA 35) Daniel Obarski kickoff for 43 yds , Gage Wilcox return for no gain to the Fla 22 - UCF 29, FLA 17 -0.80 2.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 78

Started Drive at: FLA 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.15 - 0.95 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.05)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-11.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 29, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.4%

Win Probability (After): 2.1%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:33 ESPN team id 57 (1st & 10 at FLA 22) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 29, FLA 17 -0.52 2.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: FLA 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.40 - 0.92 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.08)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-11.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 29, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.4%

Win Probability (After): 2.3%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:28 ESPN team id 57 (2nd & 10 at FLA 22) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 29, FLA 17 -0.67 2.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: FLA 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.18 - 0.48 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.52)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 29, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.7%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:24 ESPN team id 57 (3rd & 10 at FLA 22) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 29, FLA 17 -0.76 1.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: FLA 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.00 - -0.24 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.24)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-13.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 29, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.6%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:18 ESPN team id 57 (4th & 10 at FLA 22) Emory Jones pass incomplete - UCF 29, FLA 17 -2.87 1.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 22

Started Drive at: FLA 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.60 - -0.74 = -2.87

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.74)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.60)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UCF 29, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:15 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & 10 at FLA 22) Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Fla 20 - UCF 29, FLA 17 -0.38 99.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 20

Started Drive at: FLA 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.22 - 3.61 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.61)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 29, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:30 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & 8 at FLA 20) Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Fla 17 - UCF 29, FLA 17 0.30 99.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 17

Started Drive at: FLA 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.31 - 3.00 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.00)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 29, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:29 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 5 at FLA 17) Timeout FLORIDA, clock 01:29 - UCF 29, FLA 17 0.00 99.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 17

Started Drive at: FLA 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.31 - 3.31 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.31)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 29, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:28 ESPN team id 2116 (3rd & 5 at FLA 17) Amari Johnson run for 4 yds to the Fla 13 - UCF 29, FLA 17 -0.49 99.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 13

Started Drive at: FLA 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.62 - 3.11 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.11)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 29, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:26 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 1 at FLA 13) Timeout FLORIDA, clock 01:26 - UCF 29, FLA 17 0.00 99.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 13

Started Drive at: FLA 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.62 - 2.62 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.62)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 29, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:20 ESPN team id 2116 (4th & 1 at FLA 13) Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Fla 10 for a 1ST down - UCF 29, FLA 17 1.76 99.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 10

Started Drive at: FLA 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.44 - 2.68 = 1.76

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.68)

Score Difference (End): 12 (16.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 29, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:40 ESPN team id 2116 (1st & Goal at FLA 10) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 12 - UCF 29, FLA 17 -1.16 99.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 12

Started Drive at: FLA 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.24 - 4.40 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): 12 (16.40)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 29, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:20 ESPN team id 2116 (2nd & Goal at FLA 12) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 14 - UCF 29, FLA 17 -0.85 99.3% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 14

Started Drive at: FLA 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.60 - 3.45 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.45)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UCF 29, FLA 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 29 (29) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1