Win Probability
Game Excitement Index: 6.73 | Odds: HOU -1.5, O/U 49.5 | Download Chart
Expected Points
Team Stats [show/hide]
| Overall |
|
|
|---|---|---|
| EPA/Play | -0.02 35th %ile | -0.14 19th %ile |
| Success Rate | 37% 29th %ile | 38% 31st %ile |
| Yards/Play | 6.19 56th %ile | 5.33 32nd %ile |
| EPA/Dropback | 0.07 51st %ile | -0.15 27th %ile |
| EPA/Rush | -0.19 18th %ile | -0.12 27th %ile |
| Yards/Dropback | 6.74 55th %ile | 5.97 43rd %ile |
| Explosive Play Rate | 10% 67th %ile | 8% 44th %ile |
| 3rd Down Success Rate | 35% 30th %ile | 29% 18th %ile |
| Red Zone Success Rate | 33% 32nd %ile | 21% 16th %ile |
| Def Run Stuff Rate | 29% 44th %ile | 28% 39th %ile |
| Havoc Rate | 15% 77th %ile | 12% 62nd %ile |
| Expected Points | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 76 | 78 |
| Total EPA | -8.96 | -11.67 |
| Offensive EPA | -1.59 | -9.03 |
| Special Teams EPA | -4.53 | -3.56 |
| Penalty EPA | -5.43 | 0.93 |
| Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA | 2.59 | -0.01 |
| Production | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 67 | 66 |
| Yards | 415 | 352 |
| Yards/Play | 6.19 | 5.33 |
| EPA | -1.59 | -9.03 |
| EPA/Play | -0.02 | -0.14 |
| Passes | 42 (63%) | 38 (58%) |
| Yards | 283 | 227 |
| Yards/Play | 6.74 | 5.97 |
| EPA | 3.09 | -5.57 |
| EPA/Play | 0.07 | -0.15 |
| Rushes | 25 (37%) | 28 (42%) |
| Yards | 114 | 132 |
| Yards/Play | 4.56 | 4.71 |
| EPA | -4.69 | -3.46 |
| EPA/Play | -0.19 | -0.12 |
| Rushing | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 67 | 66 |
| Rushes | 25 (37%) | 28 (42%) |
| Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) | 1 (4%) | 3 (11%) |
| Successful Power Runs (Rate) | 1 (100%) | 1 (33%) |
| Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) | 7 (28%) | 8 (29%) |
| Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) | 11 (44%) | 14 (50%) |
| Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) | 10 (40%) | 13 (46%) |
| OL Line Yards | 22.2 | 32.7 |
| Per Carry | 0.89 | 1.17 |
| Highlight Yards | 44 | 51.5 |
| Per Rush Opportunity | 4.40 | 3.96 |
| Explosiveness | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 76 | 78 |
| Scrimmage Plays | 67 | 66 |
| Explosive Plays | 7 (10%) | 5 (8%) |
| When Passing (EPA > 2.4) | 6 (14%) | 4 (11%) |
| When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) | 1 (4%) | 1 (4%) |
| EPA w/o Explosive Plays | -22.21 | -25.30 |
| EPA/Play | -0.37 | -0.41 |
| When Passing | -15.71 | -19.20 |
| EPA/Play | -0.37 | -0.51 |
| When Rushing | -6.50 | -6.10 |
| EPA/Play | -0.27 | -0.23 |
| Situational | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Successful Plays (EPA > 0) | 25 (37%) | 25 (38%) |
| When Passing | 16 (38%) | 13 (34%) |
| When Rushing | 9 (36%) | 12 (43%) |
| On Standard Downs | 18 (40%) | 19 (42%) |
| On Passing Downs | 7 (32%) | 6 (29%) |
| On Early Downs | 18 (35%) | 20 (42%) |
| On Late Downs | 7 (44%) | 5 (28%) |
| During "Middle 8" | 3 (38%) | 5 (36%) |
| Early Downs | 51 | 48 |
| First Downs Created | 12 (24%) | 10 (21%) |
| EPA | -7.37 | 0.36 |
| EPA/Play | -0.14 | 0.01 |
| Passes | 30 (59%) | 25 (52%) |
| Rushes | 21 (41%) | 23 (48%) |
| Successful Passes (Rate) | 10 (33%) | 9 (36%) |
| Successful Rushes (Rate) | 8 (38%) | 11 (48%) |
| "Middle 8" Plays | 8 | 14 |
| EPA | 0.13 | 0.67 |
| EPA/play | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Passes | 3 (38%) | 10 (71%) |
| Rushes | 5 (63%) | 4 (29%) |
| Successful Passes (Rate) | 2 (67%) | 3 (30%) |
| Successful Rushes (Rate) | 1 (20%) | 2 (50%) |
| Drives | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total | 12 | 11 |
| Avg Starting Field Position | Own 24 | Own 25 |
| Plays/Drive | 7.09 | 7.65 |
| Yards/Drive | 43.96 | 43.65 |
| Available Yards % | 58% | 58% |
| Defensive | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 66 | 67 |
| Stop Rate | 64% | 36% |
| Havoc Plays Created | 8 (12%) | 10 (15%) |
| Passing | 3 (8%) | 4 (10%) |
| Rushing | 5 (18%) | 6 (24%) |
| TFLs Generated | 8 | 8 |
| Passing | 3 | 2 |
| Rushing | 5 | 6 |
| Sacks Generated | 1 (3%) | 1 (2%) |
| Passes Defensed | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles Forced | 0 | 0 |
| Turnovers | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 |
| Fumbles | 2 | 2 |
| Fumbles Lost | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles Recovered | 1 | 2 |
| Interceptions | 2 | 0 |
| Turnover Margin | -3 | 3 |
| Expected Turnovers | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Expected Turnover Margin | -0.4 | 0.4 |
| Turnover Luck (pts) | -12.8 | 12.8 |
| Special Teams | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 9 | 12 |
| Total EPA | -4.53 | -3.56 |
| Field Goal EPA | 2.07 | 1.67 |
| Punting EPA | -1.43 | -2.98 |
| Kickoff Return EPA | -5.17 | -2.25 |
Houston [show/hide]
| Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | |||||||
| Clayton Tune | 26/40, 283 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 1 Sck, 62.5 xQBR, 1.06 DETMER | 6.90 | 0.20 | 8.25 | 39% | 74.0% | |
| Seth Green | 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 0 Scks, 16.1 xQBR, 0.00 DETMER | 0.00 | -5.16 | -5.16 | 0% | -18.0% | |
| Rush attempts | |||||||
| Clayton Tune | 6 carries, 51 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) | 8.50 | 0.10 | 0.60 | 50% | 4.0% | |
| Alton McCaskill | 14 carries, 71 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) | 5.07 | -0.10 | -1.37 | 43% | -6.0% | |
| Ta'Zhawn Henry | 2 carries, -2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | -1.00 | -0.97 | -1.94 | 0% | -1.0% | |
| TEAM | 3 carries, -6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | -2.00 | -0.66 | -1.97 | 0% | -4.0% | |
| Pass targets | |||||||
| Nathaniel Dell | 10 catches (10 targets), 150 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 15.00 | 1.76 | 17.58 | 80% | 60.0% | |
| Jake Herslow | 5 catches (5 targets), 65 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 13.00 | 0.98 | 4.88 | 80% | 35.0% | |
| Christian Trahan | 3 catches (3 targets), 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 10.00 | 0.52 | 1.57 | 67% | 15.0% | |
| Alton McCaskill | 4 catches (4 targets), 15 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 3.75 | 0.29 | 1.16 | 25% | 11.0% | |
| Jeremy Singleton | 2 catches (2 targets), 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 8.50 | 0.25 | 0.49 | 50% | 0.0% | |
| Ta'Zhawn Henry | 2 catches (2 targets), 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 3.00 | -0.84 | -1.69 | 0% | -2.0% | |
Auburn [show/hide]
| Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | |||||||
| TJ Finley | 19/37, 227 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 41.5 xQBR, 0.28 DETMER | 5.97 | -0.15 | -5.57 | 34% | -13.0% | |
| Rush attempts | |||||||
| Ja'Varrius Johnson | 1 carry, 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 2.00 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 100% | 7.0% | |
| Malcolm Johnson Jr. | 2 carries, 24 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 12.00 | 0.58 | 1.17 | 100% | 2.0% | |
| Tank Bigsby | 16 carries, 96 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.00 | 0.00 | -0.07 | 44% | 4.0% | |
| John Samuel Shenker | 1 carry, 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 1.00 | -0.78 | -0.78 | 0% | -6.0% | |
| TJ Finley | 1 carry, 0 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) | 0.00 | -0.89 | -0.89 | 0% | -3.0% | |
| TEAM | 1 carry, -3 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) | -3.00 | -0.90 | -0.90 | 0% | -4.0% | |
| Demetris Robertson | 1 carry, -5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | -5.00 | -1.53 | -1.53 | 0% | -4.0% | |
| Jarquez Hunter | 5 carries, 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 3.40 | -0.41 | -2.06 | 40% | -6.0% | |
| Pass targets | |||||||
| Kobe Hudson | 4 catches (4 targets), 57 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 14.25 | 1.71 | 6.86 | 100% | 26.0% | |
| Tank Bigsby | 5 catches (5 targets), 68 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 13.60 | 0.74 | 3.69 | 60% | 8.0% | |
| John Samuel Shenker | 5 catches (5 targets), 54 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 10.80 | 0.57 | 2.85 | 60% | 6.0% | |
| Ja'Varrius Johnson | 1 catch (1 target), 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 20.00 | 2.46 | 2.46 | 100% | 13.0% | |
| Demetris Robertson | 2 catches (2 targets), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 7.50 | 0.43 | 0.86 | 50% | 1.0% | |
| Shedrick Jackson | 2 catches (2 targets), 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.50 | 0.37 | 0.74 | 50% | -2.0% | |
Big Plays [show/hide]
As determined by absolute EPA.
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 7:47 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 48) Seth Green pass intercepted Chandler Wooten return for no gain to the Houst 49 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -5.16 | 40.9% | -17.6% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 49 Started Drive at: HOU 6 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.80 - 2.35 = -5.16 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.65) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.80) Change of Possession: 1 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.9% Win Probability (After): 23.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 5:55 | |
(3rd & 6 at AUB 27) TJ Finley pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 51 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 0 | 4.59 | 15.4% | 8.3% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 22 Started Drive at: AUB 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.12 - -0.47 = 4.59 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.47) Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.88) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.4% Win Probability (After): 23.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 11:08 | |
(4th & 2 at HOU 20) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -4.41 | 30.1% | -9.0% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 80 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.88 - 2.53 = -4.41 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.47) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.88) Change of Possession: 1 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 30.1% Win Probability (After): 21.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 3:27 | |
(2nd & 10 at AUB 26) Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 26 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) - HOU 17, AUB 13 | 3.60 | 54.6% | 25.0% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.40 = 3.60 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.40) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 17, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.6% Win Probability (After): 79.6% Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 13:00 | |
(3rd & 12 at HOU 21) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 18 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST down - HOU 0, AUB 0 | 3.35 | 52.4% | 10.1% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 61 Started Drive at: HOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.08 - -1.27 = 3.35 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.27) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.08) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 0, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.4% Win Probability (After): 62.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 3:52 | |
(3rd & Goal at HOU 12) TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 12 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK) - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 3.31 | 44.6% | 17.2% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99 Started Drive at: AUB 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.69 = 3.31 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.31) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 83 yards Win Probability (Before): 44.6% Win Probability (After): 61.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 8:45 | |
(3rd & 12 at HOU 4) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 23 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 3.30 | 23.9% | 11.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 73 Started Drive at: HOU 6 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - -2.15 = 3.30 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-5.15) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.85) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.9% Win Probability (After): 35.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 9:26 | |
(2nd & 6 at AUB 26) TJ Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 41 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 6 | 3.27 | 34.7% | 7.8% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 33 Started Drive at: AUB 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.76 - 0.49 = 3.27 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.51) Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.24) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 34.7% Win Probability (After): 42.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 9:55 | |
(4th & 1 at AUB 32) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 27 yds to the Aub 5 for a 1ST down - HOU 0, AUB 0 | 3.02 | 61.5% | 5.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 5 Started Drive at: HOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.92 - 2.90 = 3.02 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.90) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 0, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.5% Win Probability (After): 67.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 14:46 | |
(3rd & 6 at HOU 39) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 25 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 2.87 | 38.6% | 16.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 36 Started Drive at: HOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.55 - 0.68 = 2.87 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.32) Score Difference (End): -3 (0.55) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 38.6% Win Probability (After): 54.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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Most Important Plays [show/hide]
As determined by absolute WPA.
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 3:27 | |
(2nd & 10 at AUB 26) Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 26 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) - HOU 17, AUB 13 | 3.60 | 54.6% | 25.0% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.40 = 3.60 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.40) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 17, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.6% Win Probability (After): 79.6% Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 4:08 | |
(2nd & 7 at AUB 46) Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 20 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 1.86 | 38.2% | 20.3% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 26 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.02 - 2.17 = 1.86 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.83) Score Difference (End): -3 (1.02) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards Win Probability (Before): 38.2% Win Probability (After): 58.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 7:47 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 48) Seth Green pass intercepted Chandler Wooten return for no gain to the Houst 49 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -5.16 | 40.9% | -17.6% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 49 Started Drive at: HOU 6 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.80 - 2.35 = -5.16 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.65) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.80) Change of Possession: 1 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.9% Win Probability (After): 23.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 3:52 | |
(3rd & Goal at HOU 12) TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 12 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK) - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 3.31 | 44.6% | 17.2% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99 Started Drive at: AUB 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.69 = 3.31 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.31) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 83 yards Win Probability (Before): 44.6% Win Probability (After): 61.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 14:46 | |
(3rd & 6 at HOU 39) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 25 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 2.87 | 38.6% | 16.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 36 Started Drive at: HOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.55 - 0.68 = 2.87 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.32) Score Difference (End): -3 (0.55) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 38.6% Win Probability (After): 54.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 5:51 | |
(2nd & 17 at HOU 29) TJ Finley pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 20 yds to the Houst 9 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 6 | 2.46 | 41.6% | 12.6% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 9 Started Drive at: AUB 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.24 - 2.78 = 2.46 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.22) Score Difference (End): -4 (1.24) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 69 yards Win Probability (Before): 41.6% Win Probability (After): 54.2% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 2:42 | |
(4th & 2 at AUB 33) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 17, AUB 13 | -2.33 | 19.6% | -12.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 33 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.14 - -0.81 = -2.33 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.81) Score Difference (End): 4 (7.14) Change of Possession: 1 Score: HOU 17, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.6% Win Probability (After): 7.4% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 12:12 | |
(4th & 9 at HOU 18) Ben Patton 35 yd FG GOOD - HOU 10, AUB 6 | 1.16 | 29.3% | 11.8% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.84 = 1.16 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.16) Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.3% Win Probability (After): 41.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 8:46 | |
(3rd & Goal at AUB 5) Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 5 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) - HOU 7, AUB 0 | 2.66 | 64.9% | 11.8% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99 Started Drive at: HOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.34 = 2.66 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.34) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 85 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.9% Win Probability (After): 76.7% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 8:45 | |
(3rd & 12 at HOU 4) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 23 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 3.30 | 23.9% | 11.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 73 Started Drive at: HOU 6 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - -2.15 = 3.30 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-5.15) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.85) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.9% Win Probability (After): 35.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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Scoring Plays [show/hide]
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:46 | |
(3rd & Goal at AUB 5) Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 5 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) - HOU 7, AUB 0 | 2.66 | 64.9% | 11.8% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99 Started Drive at: HOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.34 = 2.66 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.34) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 85 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.9% Win Probability (After): 76.7% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 6:58 | |
(4th & 12 at AUB 35) Dalton Witherspoon 52 yd FG GOOD - HOU 10, AUB 0 | 2.07 | 78.0% | 5.2% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.93 = 2.07 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.93) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.0% Win Probability (After): 83.2% Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 3:10 | |
(4th & 9 at HOU 10) Ben Patton 27 yd FG GOOD - HOU 10, AUB 3 | 0.51 | 19.8% | 10.4% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10 Started Drive at: AUB 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.49 = 0.51 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.51) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 67 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.8% Win Probability (After): 30.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 12:12 | |
(4th & 9 at HOU 18) Ben Patton 35 yd FG GOOD - HOU 10, AUB 6 | 1.16 | 29.3% | 11.8% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.84 = 1.16 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.16) Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.3% Win Probability (After): 41.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 3:52 | |
(3rd & Goal at HOU 12) TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 12 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK) - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 3.31 | 44.6% | 17.2% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99 Started Drive at: AUB 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.69 = 3.31 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.31) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 83 yards Win Probability (Before): 44.6% Win Probability (After): 61.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 3:27 | |
(2nd & 10 at AUB 26) Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 26 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) - HOU 17, AUB 13 | 3.60 | 54.6% | 25.0% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.40 = 3.60 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.40) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 17, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.6% Win Probability (After): 79.6% Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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All Plays [show/hide]
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at HOU 35) Evan McGuire kickoff for 65 yds , Ta'Zhawn Henry return for 13 yds to the Houst 13 - HOU 0, AUB 0 | -1.99 | 52.9% | -3.2% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 87 Started Drive at: HOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.13 - 0.86 = -1.99 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86) Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.13) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 0, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.9% Win Probability (After): 49.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 14:50 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 13) Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 10 yds to the Houst 23 for a 1ST down - HOU 0, AUB 0 | 0.38 | 59.0% | -1.3% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 77 Started Drive at: HOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.72 - 0.35 = 0.38 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.35) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.72) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 0, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.0% Win Probability (After): 57.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 14:20 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 23) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 9 yds to the Houst 32 - HOU 0, AUB 0 | 1.03 | 59.3% | 3.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 68 Started Drive at: HOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.94 - 0.91 = 1.03 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.91) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.94) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 0, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.3% Win Probability (After): 62.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:45 | |
(2nd & 1 at HOU 32) Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 26 - HOU 0, AUB 0 | -2.56 | 61.7% | -5.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 74 Started Drive at: HOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.58 - 1.98 = -2.56 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.98) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.58) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 0, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.7% Win Probability (After): 55.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:16 | |
(3rd & 7 at HOU 26) HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 21 - HOU 0, AUB 0 | -0.73 | 56.3% | -2.9% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 79 Started Drive at: HOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.30 - -0.57 = -0.73 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.57) Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.30) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 0, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.3% Win Probability (After): 53.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:00 | |
(3rd & 12 at HOU 21) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 18 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST down - HOU 0, AUB 0 | 3.35 | 52.4% | 10.1% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 61 Started Drive at: HOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.08 - -1.27 = 3.35 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.27) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.08) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 0, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.4% Win Probability (After): 62.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 12:30 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 39) Alton McCaskill run for 13 yds to the Aub 41 Alton McCaskill fumbled, recovered by Houst - HOU 0, AUB 0 | 1.39 | 61.4% | 2.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 41 Started Drive at: HOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.50 - 2.11 = 1.39 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.11) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.50) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 0, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 44 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.4% Win Probability (After): 64.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 11:50 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 41) Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the Aub 37 - HOU 0, AUB 0 | -0.19 | 62.8% | 0.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 37 Started Drive at: HOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.27 - 3.46 = -0.19 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.46) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.27) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 0, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 48 yards Win Probability (Before): 62.8% Win Probability (After): 63.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 11:20 | |
(2nd & 6 at AUB 37) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 3 yds to the Aub 34 - HOU 0, AUB 0 | -0.16 | 63.2% | -0.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 34 Started Drive at: HOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.07 - 3.23 = -0.16 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.23) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.07) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 0, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 63.2% Win Probability (After): 62.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 10:30 | |
(3rd & 3 at AUB 34) Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 2 yds to the Aub 32 - HOU 0, AUB 0 | -0.43 | 62.5% | -0.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 32 Started Drive at: HOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - 3.17 = -0.43 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.17) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.74) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 0, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 53 yards Win Probability (Before): 62.5% Win Probability (After): 61.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 9:55 | |
(4th & 1 at AUB 32) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 27 yds to the Aub 5 for a 1ST down - HOU 0, AUB 0 | 3.02 | 61.5% | 5.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 5 Started Drive at: HOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.92 - 2.90 = 3.02 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.90) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 0, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.5% Win Probability (After): 67.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 9:30 | |
(1st & Goal at AUB 5) Alton McCaskill run for no gain to the Aub 5 - HOU 0, AUB 0 | -0.52 | 67.5% | -1.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 5 Started Drive at: HOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.39 - 5.91 = -0.52 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.91) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 0, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.5% Win Probability (After): 66.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 8:52 | |
(2nd & Goal at AUB 5) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 0, AUB 0 | -1.07 | 66.8% | -2.0% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 5 Started Drive at: HOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.31 - 5.38 = -1.07 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.38) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.31) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 0, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 66.8% Win Probability (After): 64.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 8:46 | |
(3rd & Goal at AUB 5) Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 5 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) - HOU 7, AUB 0 | 2.66 | 64.9% | 11.8% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99 Started Drive at: HOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.34 = 2.66 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.34) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 85 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.9% Win Probability (After): 76.7% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 8:46 | |
(Kickoff at AUB 35) Bubba Baxa kickoff for 62 yds , Jarquez Hunter return for 20 yds to the Aub 23 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -1.19 | 27.5% | -0.3% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 77 Started Drive at: AUB 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.32 - -0.13 = -1.19 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.13) Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.32) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.5% Win Probability (After): 27.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 8:30 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 23) Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 22 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -0.97 | 26.9% | -1.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 78 Started Drive at: AUB 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.17 - -0.21 = -0.97 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.21) Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.17) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.9% Win Probability (After): 25.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 8:05 | |
(2nd & 11 at AUB 22) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -0.99 | 25.0% | -0.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78 Started Drive at: AUB 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.10 - -1.11 = -0.99 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.11) Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.10) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.0% Win Probability (After): 24.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:59 | |
(3rd & 11 at AUB 22) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -0.96 | 23.7% | -1.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78 Started Drive at: AUB 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.04 - -2.07 = -0.96 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.07) Score Difference (End): -7 (-10.04) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.7% Win Probability (After): 22.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:52 | |
(4th & 11 at AUB 22) Oscar Chapman punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Erwin at the Houst 30 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | 0.46 | 22.2% | -1.7% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 70 Started Drive at: AUB 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.56 - -3.02 = 0.46 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-10.02) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.56) Change of Possession: 1 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.2% Win Probability (After): 20.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
|||||
| Q1 7:47 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 30) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -0.65 | 79.4% | -0.6% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70 Started Drive at: HOU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.90 - 2.55 = -0.65 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.55) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.90) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.4% Win Probability (After): 78.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 7:35 | |
(2nd & 10 at HOU 30) Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 28 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -1.52 | 78.6% | -2.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 72 Started Drive at: HOU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.37 - 1.89 = -1.52 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.89) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.37) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.6% Win Probability (After): 76.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:02 | |
(3rd & 12 at HOU 28) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -1.22 | 76.0% | -1.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 72 Started Drive at: HOU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.78 - 0.45 = -1.22 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.45) Score Difference (End): 7 (6.22) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards Win Probability (Before): 76.0% Win Probability (After): 74.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 6:56 | |
(4th & 12 at HOU 28) Laine Wilkins punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 35 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -0.33 | 74.5% | -0.7% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 65 Started Drive at: HOU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.01 - -0.68 = -0.33 Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.32) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.99) Change of Possession: 1 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards Win Probability (Before): 74.5% Win Probability (After): 73.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 6:40 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 35) TJ Finley pass complete to Tank Bigsby for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 32 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -1.38 | 26.3% | -2.1% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 68 Started Drive at: AUB 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.38 - 1.00 = -1.38 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.00) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.38) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, -3 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.3% Win Probability (After): 24.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 6:15 | |
(2nd & 13 at AUB 32) Tank Bigsby run for 10 yds to the Aub 42 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | 0.96 | 24.4% | 1.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 58 Started Drive at: AUB 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - -0.37 = 0.96 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.37) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.42) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 24.4% Win Probability (After): 26.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 5:37 | |
(3rd & 3 at AUB 42) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -1.83 | 25.5% | -1.0% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58 Started Drive at: AUB 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.26 - 0.58 = -1.83 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.42) Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.26) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.5% Win Probability (After): 24.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 5:30 | |
(4th & 3 at AUB 42) Oscar Chapman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Damarion Williams at the Houst 12 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -0.23 | 24.2% | -2.3% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 88 Started Drive at: AUB 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.46 - -1.23 = -0.23 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.23) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.46) Change of Possession: 1 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 24.2% Win Probability (After): 21.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 5:20 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 12) Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 3 yds to the Houst 15 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -0.30 | 78.2% | -0.6% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 85 Started Drive at: HOU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.18 - 1.48 = -0.30 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.48) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.18) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.2% Win Probability (After): 77.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 4:45 | |
(2nd & 7 at HOU 15) Clayton Tune run for 24 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST down - HOU 7, AUB 0 | 1.81 | 78.2% | 2.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 61 Started Drive at: HOU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 1.18 = 1.81 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.18) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.2% Win Probability (After): 80.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 4:20 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 39) Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 38 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -0.86 | 80.8% | -0.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 62 Started Drive at: HOU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.16 - 3.01 = -0.86 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.01) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.8% Win Probability (After): 80.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 3:38 | |
(2nd & 11 at HOU 38) Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 3 yds to the Houst 41 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -0.52 | 79.9% | -0.8% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 59 Started Drive at: HOU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.67 - 2.19 = -0.52 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.19) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.67) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.9% Win Probability (After): 79.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 3:05 | |
(3rd & 8 at HOU 41) Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 4 yds to the Houst 45 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -1.26 | 79.2% | -1.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 55 Started Drive at: HOU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 1.69 = -1.26 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.69) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.44) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.2% Win Probability (After): 78.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 2:21 | |
(4th & 4 at HOU 45) Laine Wilkins punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Ja'Varrius Johnson at the Aub 25 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -0.45 | 78.5% | -4.4% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 75 Started Drive at: HOU 12 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 0.46 = -0.45 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.46) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.02) Change of Possession: 1 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.5% Win Probability (After): 74.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 2:15 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 25) Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the Aub 33 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | 0.82 | 25.6% | 0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - -0.02 = 0.82 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.02) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.20) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.6% Win Probability (After): 25.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 1:40 | |
(2nd & 2 at AUB 33) TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 5 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST down - HOU 7, AUB 0 | 0.20 | 25.5% | 1.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 62 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 0.90 = 0.20 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.10) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.90) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.5% Win Probability (After): 26.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 1:15 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 38) Malcolm Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST down - HOU 7, AUB 0 | 0.62 | 26.5% | 0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 52 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 1.25 = 0.62 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.75) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.13) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.5% Win Probability (After): 27.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 0:40 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 48) Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 49 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -0.56 | 27.0% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 51 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.39 - 1.95 = -0.56 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.05) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.61) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.0% Win Probability (After): 27.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 0:00 | |
(2nd & 9 at AUB 49) Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Houst 48 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -0.42 | 26.5% | -0.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 48 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.96 - 1.39 = -0.42 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.61) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.04) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.5% Win Probability (After): 25.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 14:40 | |
(3rd & 6 at HOU 48) TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 10 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST down - HOU 7, AUB 0 | 1.93 | 24.7% | 3.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 38 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.91 - 0.98 = 1.93 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.02) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 37 yards Win Probability (Before): 24.7% Win Probability (After): 28.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 14:20 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 38) Demetris Robertson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 43 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -1.53 | 29.4% | -4.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 43 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.43 - 2.95 = -1.53 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.05) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.57) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.4% Win Probability (After): 25.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 13:45 | |
(2nd & 15 at HOU 43) TJ Finley pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 10 yds to the Houst 33 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | 1.00 | 24.9% | 2.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 33 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 1.40 = 1.00 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.60) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.60) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 24.9% Win Probability (After): 27.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 13:09 | |
(3rd & 5 at HOU 33) HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Houst 28 for a 1ST down - HOU 7, AUB 0 | 1.41 | 26.5% | 4.3% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 28 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.78 - 2.37 = 1.41 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.63) Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.22) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.5% Win Probability (After): 30.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 12:40 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 28) Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the Houst 20 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | 0.64 | 30.5% | 2.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 20 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.46 - 3.82 = 0.64 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.18) Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.54) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 30.5% Win Probability (After): 33.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 12:04 | |
(2nd & 2 at HOU 20) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -0.63 | 33.3% | -2.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.85 - 4.48 = -0.63 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.52) Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.15) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 33.3% Win Probability (After): 31.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 12:00 | |
(3rd & 2 at HOU 20) Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Houst 20 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -1.33 | 31.1% | -3.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.52 - 3.86 = -1.33 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.14) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.1% Win Probability (After): 28.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 11:24 | |
(4th & 2 at HOU 20) Timeout HOUSTON, clock 11:24 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | 0.00 | 28.3% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.52 - 2.52 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.48) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.3% Win Probability (After): 28.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 11:08 | |
(4th & 2 at HOU 20) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -4.41 | 30.1% | -9.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 80 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.88 - 2.53 = -4.41 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.47) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.88) Change of Possession: 1 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 30.1% Win Probability (After): 21.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 11:00 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 20) Clayton Tune run for 13 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST down - HOU 7, AUB 0 | 0.67 | 79.1% | 0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 67 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.51 - 1.84 = 0.67 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.84) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.51) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.1% Win Probability (After): 79.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:30 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 33) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -0.65 | 80.2% | -0.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.90 - 2.55 = -0.65 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.55) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.90) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.2% Win Probability (After): 79.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:25 | |
(2nd & 10 at HOU 33) Alton McCaskill run for 11 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST down - HOU 7, AUB 0 | 1.20 | 79.7% | 2.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 56 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 1.99 = 1.20 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.99) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.19) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.7% Win Probability (After): 82.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 9:45 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 44) Alton McCaskill run for 7 yds to the Aub 49 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | 0.38 | 81.5% | 0.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 49 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 3.07 = 0.38 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.07) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.45) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.5% Win Probability (After): 82.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 8:50 | |
(2nd & 3 at AUB 49) Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 16 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST down - HOU 7, AUB 0 | 1.25 | 80.2% | 1.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 33 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.32 - 3.07 = 1.25 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.07) Score Difference (End): 7 (11.32) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 47 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.2% Win Probability (After): 82.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 8:24 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 33) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -0.35 | 81.2% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.59 - 3.94 = -0.35 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.94) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.59) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.2% Win Probability (After): 80.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 8:17 | |
(2nd & 10 at AUB 33) HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 43 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -1.37 | 80.7% | -1.7% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 43 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.15 - 3.52 = -1.37 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.52) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.15) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.7% Win Probability (After): 79.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 7:45 | |
(2nd & 20 at AUB 43) Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 8 yds to the Aub 35 - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -0.35 | 79.0% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 35 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.92 - 2.27 = -0.35 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.27) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.0% Win Probability (After): 78.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 7:04 | |
(3rd & 12 at AUB 35) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 | -1.45 | 79.1% | -1.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.70 - 2.15 = -1.45 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.15) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.70) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 7, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.1% Win Probability (After): 77.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 6:58 | |
(4th & 12 at AUB 35) Dalton Witherspoon 52 yd FG GOOD - HOU 10, AUB 0 | 2.07 | 78.0% | 5.2% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.93 = 2.07 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.93) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.0% Win Probability (After): 83.2% Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 6:52 | |
(Kickoff at AUB 35) Kyle Ramsey kickoff for 64 yds , Jarquez Hunter return for 22 yds to the Aub 23 - HOU 10, AUB 0 | -1.06 | 18.9% | -1.6% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 77 Started Drive at: AUB 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.47 - 0.59 = -1.06 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.41) Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.9% Win Probability (After): 17.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 6:46 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 23) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 0 | -0.64 | 19.1% | -1.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77 Started Drive at: AUB 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 0.63 = -0.64 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.37) Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.02) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.1% Win Probability (After): 17.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 6:38 | |
(2nd & 10 at AUB 23) TJ Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 4 yds to the Aub 27 - HOU 10, AUB 0 | -0.38 | 17.6% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 73 Started Drive at: AUB 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.36 - 0.02 = -0.38 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.98) Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 17.6% Win Probability (After): 16.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 5:55 | |
(3rd & 6 at AUB 27) TJ Finley pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 51 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 0 | 4.59 | 15.4% | 8.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 22 Started Drive at: AUB 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.12 - -0.47 = 4.59 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.47) Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.88) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.4% Win Probability (After): 23.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 5:05 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 22) TJ Finley pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 11 yds to the Houst 11 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 0 | 0.54 | 23.9% | 0.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 11 Started Drive at: AUB 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.66 - 4.12 = 0.54 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.88) Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.34) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 66 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.9% Win Probability (After): 24.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 4:45 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 11) Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Houst 10 - HOU 10, AUB 0 | -0.52 | 24.9% | -0.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 10 Started Drive at: AUB 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.20 - 4.73 = -0.52 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.27) Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.80) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 67 yards Win Probability (Before): 24.9% Win Probability (After): 24.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 4:05 | |
(2nd & 9 at HOU 10) Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the Houst 10 - HOU 10, AUB 0 | -0.77 | 24.6% | -2.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10 Started Drive at: AUB 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 4.24 = -0.77 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.76) Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.53) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 67 yards Win Probability (Before): 24.6% Win Probability (After): 22.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 3:14 | |
(3rd & 9 at HOU 10) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 0 | -1.10 | 21.7% | -1.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10 Started Drive at: AUB 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.45 - 3.55 = -1.10 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.45) Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.55) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 67 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.7% Win Probability (After): 20.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 3:10 | |
(4th & 9 at HOU 10) Ben Patton 27 yd FG GOOD - HOU 10, AUB 3 | 0.51 | 19.8% | 10.4% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10 Started Drive at: AUB 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.49 = 0.51 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.51) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 67 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.8% Win Probability (After): 30.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 3:04 | |
(Kickoff at HOU 35) Evan McGuire kickoff for 64 yds , Ta'Zhawn Henry return for 21 yds to the Houst 22 - HOU 10, AUB 3 | -0.81 | 78.3% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 78 Started Drive at: HOU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.25 - 1.07 = -0.81 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.07) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.25) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.3% Win Probability (After): 78.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 2:55 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 22) Alton McCaskill run for 17 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 3 | 0.70 | 78.2% | 2.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 61 Started Drive at: HOU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.74 - 1.04 = 0.70 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.04) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.74) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 1 play, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.2% Win Probability (After): 80.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 2:20 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 39) Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 8 yds to the Houst 47 - HOU 10, AUB 3 | 0.13 | 80.6% | 0.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 53 Started Drive at: HOU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.94 - 1.81 = 0.13 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.81) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.94) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.6% Win Probability (After): 80.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:49 | |
(2nd & 2 at HOU 47) Clayton Tune sacked by Eku Leota for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 39 - HOU 10, AUB 3 | -0.76 | 80.5% | -2.2% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 61 Started Drive at: HOU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - 1.67 = -0.76 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.67) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.90) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.5% Win Probability (After): 78.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:49 | |
(3rd & 10 at HOU 39) Timeout AUBURN, clock 01:49 - HOU 10, AUB 3 | 0.00 | 78.6% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61 Started Drive at: HOU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - 0.90 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.90) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.90) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.6% Win Probability (After): 78.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 1:43 | |
(3rd & 10 at HOU 39) Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Houst 42 - HOU 10, AUB 3 | -0.79 | 79.3% | -1.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 58 Started Drive at: HOU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 0.75 = -0.79 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.75) Score Difference (End): 7 (6.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.3% Win Probability (After): 77.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 1:43 | |
(4th & 7 at HOU 42) Timeout AUBURN, clock 01:43 - HOU 10, AUB 3 | 0.00 | 77.8% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58 Started Drive at: HOU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - -0.03 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.97) Score Difference (End): 7 (6.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.8% Win Probability (After): 77.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 1:36 | |
(4th & 7 at HOU 42) Laine Wilkins punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ja'Varrius Johnson at the Aub 15 - HOU 10, AUB 3 | -0.41 | 77.6% | -1.1% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 85 Started Drive at: HOU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.42 - -0.01 = -0.41 Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.99) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.58) Change of Possession: 1 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.6% Win Probability (After): 76.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 1:30 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 15) TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 30 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 3 | 1.41 | 23.5% | 3.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 55 Started Drive at: AUB 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.54 - 0.13 = 1.41 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.87) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.46) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 1 play, 30 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.5% Win Probability (After): 27.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 1:26 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 45) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 3 | -0.32 | 27.3% | -1.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55 Started Drive at: AUB 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.09 - 1.41 = -0.32 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.59) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.91) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 30 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.3% Win Probability (After): 26.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 1:20 | |
(2nd & 10 at AUB 45) TJ Finley pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 5 yds to the 50 yard line - HOU 10, AUB 3 | -0.14 | 26.2% | -1.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 50 Started Drive at: AUB 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 1.17 = -0.14 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.83) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 35 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.2% Win Probability (After): 24.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 1:05 | |
(3rd & 5 at 50) TJ Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 5 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 3 | 0.76 | 25.1% | 3.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 45 Started Drive at: AUB 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.78 - 1.02 = 0.76 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.98) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.22) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.1% Win Probability (After): 28.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:57 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 45) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 3 | -0.15 | 28.4% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45 Started Drive at: AUB 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.43 - 1.59 = -0.15 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.41) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.57) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.4% Win Probability (After): 27.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:53 | |
(2nd & 10 at HOU 45) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 3 | -0.30 | 27.7% | -2.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45 Started Drive at: AUB 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 1.38 = -0.30 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.62) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.7% Win Probability (After): 25.2% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:43 | |
(3rd & 10 at HOU 45) TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Aub - HOU 10, AUB 3 | -0.90 | 25.6% | -4.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 48 Started Drive at: AUB 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - 1.08 = -0.90 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.92) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.81) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 37 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.6% Win Probability (After): 21.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:35 | |
(4th & 13 at HOU 48) Oscar Chapman punt for 33 yds, downed at the Houst 15 - HOU 10, AUB 3 | -0.57 | 21.8% | -1.1% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 85 Started Drive at: AUB 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.27 - 0.30 = -0.57 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.70) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.27) Change of Possession: 1 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 37 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.8% Win Probability (After): 20.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 0:00 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 15) Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the Houst 17 - HOU 10, AUB 3 | -0.02 | 78.6% | 0.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 83 Started Drive at: HOU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.26 - 0.02 = -0.02 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.02) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.26) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.6% Win Probability (After): 79.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q3 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at AUB 35) Bubba Baxa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - HOU 10, AUB 3 | 0.00 | 25.0% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.48 - -0.48 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.48) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.0% Win Probability (After): 25.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:50 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 25) TJ Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 9 yds to the Aub 34 - HOU 10, AUB 3 | 1.12 | 27.3% | -1.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.89 - -0.23 = 1.12 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.23) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.11) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.3% Win Probability (After): 25.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:05 | |
(2nd & 1 at AUB 34) Tank Bigsby run for 15 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 3 | 0.58 | 27.8% | 2.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 51 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.72 - 1.14 = 0.58 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.86) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 24 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.8% Win Probability (After): 30.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 13:35 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 49) Tank Bigsby run for 32 yds to the Houst 19 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 3 | 2.65 | 29.8% | 6.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 19 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.36 - 1.72 = 2.65 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.28) Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.64) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 56 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.8% Win Probability (After): 35.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:45 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 19) Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 23 - HOU 10, AUB 3 | -1.52 | 36.0% | -4.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 23 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 4.34 = -1.52 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.66) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.19) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 52 yards Win Probability (Before): 36.0% Win Probability (After): 31.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:22 | |
(2nd & 14 at HOU 23) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 3 | -0.85 | 31.3% | -1.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 2.87 = -0.85 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.13) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 52 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.3% Win Probability (After): 29.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:17 | |
(3rd & 14 at HOU 23) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 3 | -0.56 | 29.3% | -1.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.54 - 2.09 = -0.56 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.91) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.46) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.3% Win Probability (After): 27.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:17 | |
(4th & 14 at HOU 23) HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Houst 18 - HOU 10, AUB 3 | 0.31 | 27.6% | 2.2% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 18 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.85 - 1.54 = 0.31 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.46) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.15) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 3 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.6% Win Probability (After): 29.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 12:12 | |
(4th & 9 at HOU 18) Ben Patton 35 yd FG GOOD - HOU 10, AUB 6 | 1.16 | 29.3% | 11.8% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.84 = 1.16 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.16) Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.3% Win Probability (After): 41.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 12:07 | |
(Kickoff at HOU 35) Evan McGuire kickoff for 53 yds , Nathaniel Dell return for 11 yds to the Houst 23 - HOU 10, AUB 6 | -1.16 | 71.9% | -2.1% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 77 Started Drive at: HOU 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.36 - 1.52 = -1.16 Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.52) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 71.9% Win Probability (After): 69.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 11:55 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 23) Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the Houst 25 - HOU 10, AUB 6 | -0.49 | 71.5% | -1.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 75 Started Drive at: HOU 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.89 - 1.38 = -0.49 Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.38) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.89) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 71.5% Win Probability (After): 70.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 11:25 | |
(2nd & 8 at HOU 25) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 17 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 6 | 1.79 | 69.5% | 4.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 58 Started Drive at: HOU 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 0.79 = 1.79 Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.79) Score Difference (End): 4 (6.57) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 69.5% Win Probability (After): 73.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 11:00 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 42) Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Houst 45 - HOU 10, AUB 6 | -0.44 | 73.2% | -0.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 55 Started Drive at: HOU 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 2.61 = -0.44 Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.61) Score Difference (End): 4 (6.17) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 73.2% Win Probability (After): 72.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:23 | |
(2nd & 7 at HOU 45) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 6 | -1.11 | 74.1% | -3.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55 Started Drive at: HOU 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.27 - 2.38 = -1.11 Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.38) Score Difference (End): 4 (5.27) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 74.1% Win Probability (After): 70.2% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:19 | |
(3rd & 7 at HOU 45) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 6 | -1.64 | 69.5% | -3.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55 Started Drive at: HOU 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.23 - 1.41 = -1.64 Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.41) Score Difference (End): 4 (3.77) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 69.5% Win Probability (After): 66.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:12 | |
(4th & 7 at HOU 45) Laine Wilkins punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ja'Varrius Johnson at the Aub 22 - HOU 10, AUB 6 | -0.24 | 64.4% | 2.0% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 78 Started Drive at: HOU 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.54 - -0.30 = -0.24 Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.70) Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.46) Change of Possession: 1 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.4% Win Probability (After): 66.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 10:06 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 22) Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Aub 26 - HOU 10, AUB 6 | -0.08 | 32.6% | 1.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 74 Started Drive at: AUB 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.33 - 0.41 = -0.08 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.59) Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.67) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.6% Win Probability (After): 33.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 9:26 | |
(2nd & 6 at AUB 26) TJ Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 41 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 6 | 3.27 | 34.7% | 7.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 33 Started Drive at: AUB 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.76 - 0.49 = 3.27 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.51) Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.24) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 34.7% Win Probability (After): 42.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 9:00 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 33) TJ Finley pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 7 yds to the Houst 26 - HOU 10, AUB 6 | 0.28 | 44.7% | 2.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 26 Started Drive at: AUB 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.20 - 3.92 = 0.28 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.08) Score Difference (End): -4 (0.20) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 52 yards Win Probability (Before): 44.7% Win Probability (After): 47.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 8:20 | |
(2nd & 3 at HOU 26) TJ Finley pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 2 yds to the Houst 24 - HOU 10, AUB 6 | -0.35 | 47.1% | -2.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 24 Started Drive at: AUB 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.82 - 4.16 = -0.35 Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.16) Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.18) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 54 yards Win Probability (Before): 47.1% Win Probability (After): 45.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 7:40 | |
(3rd & 1 at HOU 24) TJ Finley run for no gain to the Houst 24 TJ Finley fumbled, recovered by Aub Keiondre Jones - HOU 10, AUB 6 | -0.89 | 44.0% | -3.0% |
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Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24 Started Drive at: AUB 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.84 - 3.73 = -0.89 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.27) Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards Win Probability (Before): 44.0% Win Probability (After): 41.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 7:10 | |
(4th & 1 at HOU 24) Timeout AUBURN, clock 07:10 - HOU 10, AUB 6 | 0.00 | 40.2% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24 Started Drive at: AUB 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.84 - 2.84 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.16) Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.2% Win Probability (After): 40.2% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 7:04 | |
(4th & 1 at HOU 24) Ja'Varrius Johnson run for 2 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 6 | 1.60 | 40.8% | 7.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 22 Started Drive at: AUB 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 2.89 = 1.60 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.11) Score Difference (End): -4 (0.49) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 56 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.8% Win Probability (After): 47.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 6:30 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 22) TJ Finley sacked by David Anenih for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 29 - HOU 10, AUB 6 | -1.66 | 47.6% | -8.2% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 29 Started Drive at: AUB 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 4.47 = -1.66 Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.47) Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.18) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards Win Probability (Before): 47.6% Win Probability (After): 39.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 5:59 | |
(2nd & 17 at HOU 29) Timeout HOUSTON, clock 05:59 - HOU 10, AUB 6 | 0.00 | 39.8% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 29 Started Drive at: AUB 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 2.82 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.18) Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.18) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards Win Probability (Before): 39.8% Win Probability (After): 39.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 5:51 | |
(2nd & 17 at HOU 29) TJ Finley pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 20 yds to the Houst 9 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 6 | 2.46 | 41.6% | 12.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 9 Started Drive at: AUB 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.24 - 2.78 = 2.46 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.22) Score Difference (End): -4 (1.24) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 69 yards Win Probability (Before): 41.6% Win Probability (After): 54.2% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 5:25 | |
(1st & Goal at HOU 9) Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Houst 8 - HOU 10, AUB 6 | -0.55 | 54.5% | -1.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 8 Started Drive at: AUB 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.71 - 5.25 = -0.55 Score Difference (Before): -4 (1.25) Score Difference (End): -4 (0.71) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 70 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.5% Win Probability (After): 53.2% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 4:50 | |
(2nd & Goal at HOU 8) John Samuel Shenker run for 1 yd to the Houst 7 - HOU 10, AUB 6 | -0.78 | 53.0% | -5.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 7 Started Drive at: AUB 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.97 - 4.75 = -0.78 Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.75) Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.03) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 71 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.0% Win Probability (After): 47.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 4:20 | |
(3rd & Goal at HOU 7) AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 12 - HOU 10, AUB 6 | -0.80 | 47.3% | -4.3% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 12 Started Drive at: AUB 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.22 - 4.02 = -0.80 Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.02) Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.78) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 6 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 71 yards Win Probability (Before): 47.3% Win Probability (After): 43.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 3:52 | |
(3rd & Goal at HOU 12) TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 12 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK) - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 3.31 | 44.6% | 17.2% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99 Started Drive at: AUB 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.69 = 3.31 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.31) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 83 yards Win Probability (Before): 44.6% Win Probability (After): 61.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 3:47 | |
(Kickoff at HOU 35) Evan McGuire kickoff for 50 yds , Sedrick Williams return for 7 yds to the Houst 22 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -1.21 | 41.5% | -2.5% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 78 Started Drive at: HOU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.50 - 0.71 = -1.21 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.29) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.50) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 41.5% Win Probability (After): 39.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 3:40 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 22) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 20 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 1.40 | 41.2% | 5.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 58 Started Drive at: HOU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.99 - 0.58 = 1.40 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.42) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.01) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 41.2% Win Probability (After): 46.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 3:27 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 42) HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 37 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -0.73 | 45.1% | -0.9% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 63 Started Drive at: HOU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 1.98 = -0.73 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.02) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.74) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 45.1% Win Probability (After): 44.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 3:00 | |
(1st & 15 at HOU 37) Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for no gain to the Houst 37 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -0.66 | 43.0% | -4.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63 Started Drive at: HOU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.61 - 1.27 = -0.66 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.73) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 43.0% Win Probability (After): 38.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 2:28 | |
(2nd & 15 at HOU 37) Clayton Tune pass intercepted Nehemiah Pritchett return for no gain to the Aub 37 AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Aub 28 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -2.34 | 39.6% | -4.0% |
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Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 72 Started Drive at: HOU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.73 - 0.61 = -2.34 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.39) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.73) Change of Possession: 1 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 35 yards Win Probability (Before): 39.6% Win Probability (After): 35.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 1:55 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 28) Tank Bigsby run for 9 yds to the Aub 37 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 0.91 | 64.5% | 2.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 63 Started Drive at: AUB 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 1.71 = 0.91 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.71) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.63) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.5% Win Probability (After): 67.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 1:45 | |
(2nd & 1 at AUB 37) Malcolm Johnson Jr. run for 14 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 0.55 | 67.5% | 1.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 49 Started Drive at: AUB 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.17 - 2.62 = 0.55 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.62) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.17) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.5% Win Probability (After): 68.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 1:15 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 49) TJ Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 5 yds to the Houst 44 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -0.02 | 69.0% | 0.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 44 Started Drive at: AUB 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.18 - 3.20 = -0.02 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.20) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.18) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards Win Probability (Before): 69.0% Win Probability (After): 69.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 0:25 | |
(2nd & 5 at HOU 44) TJ Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 45 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -1.19 | 69.9% | -4.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 45 Started Drive at: AUB 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.01 - 3.19 = -1.19 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.19) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.01) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 69.9% Win Probability (After): 65.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 0:12 | |
(3rd & 6 at HOU 45) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -1.99 | 66.9% | -4.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45 Started Drive at: AUB 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.03 - 2.02 = -1.99 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.02) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.03) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 66.9% Win Probability (After): 62.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 0:03 | |
(4th & 6 at HOU 45) Oscar Chapman punt for 10 yds, downed at the Houst 35 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -1.79 | 62.8% | -6.4% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 65 Started Drive at: AUB 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.74 - 0.05 = -1.79 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.05) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.26) Change of Possession: 1 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 62.8% Win Probability (After): 56.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 0:00 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 35) Alton McCaskill run for 4 yds to the Houst 39 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -0.25 | 43.0% | 0.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 61 Started Drive at: HOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 1.73 = -0.25 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.27) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.52) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 43.0% Win Probability (After): 43.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 14:55 | |
(2nd & 6 at HOU 39) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -0.89 | 43.9% | -3.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61 Started Drive at: HOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.62 - 1.51 = -0.89 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.49) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.38) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 43.9% Win Probability (After): 40.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 14:46 | |
(3rd & 6 at HOU 39) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 25 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 2.87 | 38.6% | 16.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 36 Started Drive at: HOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.55 - 0.68 = 2.87 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.32) Score Difference (End): -3 (0.55) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 38.6% Win Probability (After): 54.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 14:10 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 36) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 2 yds to the Aub 34 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -0.41 | 54.4% | -2.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 34 Started Drive at: HOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 3.52 = -0.41 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.52) Score Difference (End): -3 (0.11) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.4% Win Probability (After): 52.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 13:30 | |
(2nd & 8 at AUB 34) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -0.91 | 52.5% | -6.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34 Started Drive at: HOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.19 - 3.09 = -0.91 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.09) Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.81) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.5% Win Probability (After): 46.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 13:24 | |
(3rd & 8 at AUB 34) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -1.65 | 46.6% | -7.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34 Started Drive at: HOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 2.20 = -1.65 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.80) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.45) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.6% Win Probability (After): 38.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 13:17 | |
(4th & 8 at AUB 34) Clayton Tune run for 6 yds to the Aub 28 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -2.26 | 39.0% | -6.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 72 Started Drive at: HOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.71 - 0.55 = -2.26 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.45) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.71) Change of Possession: 1 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 37 yards Win Probability (Before): 39.0% Win Probability (After): 32.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 13:10 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 28) Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the Aub 33 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 0.02 | 67.5% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 67 Started Drive at: AUB 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.76 - 1.74 = 0.02 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.74) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.76) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.5% Win Probability (After): 67.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 12:30 | |
(2nd & 5 at AUB 33) Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 0.79 | 67.7% | 1.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 59 Started Drive at: AUB 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.54 - 1.74 = 0.79 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.74) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.54) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.7% Win Probability (After): 69.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 11:50 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 41) Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the Aub 46 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 0.00 | 69.3% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 54 Started Drive at: AUB 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 2.57 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.57) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.57) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards Win Probability (Before): 69.3% Win Probability (After): 69.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 11:10 | |
(2nd & 5 at AUB 46) TJ Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 4 yds to the 50 yard line - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 0.03 | 69.9% | -1.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 50 Started Drive at: AUB 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 2.60 = 0.03 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.60) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.63) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 69.9% Win Probability (After): 68.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 10:35 | |
(3rd & 1 at 50) Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 49 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -2.11 | 70.9% | -5.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 51 Started Drive at: AUB 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.47 - 2.58 = -2.11 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.58) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards Win Probability (Before): 70.9% Win Probability (After): 65.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 9:47 | |
(4th & 2 at AUB 49) Oscar Chapman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 6 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -0.10 | 66.4% | 0.1% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 94 Started Drive at: AUB 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - 0.32 = -0.10 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.32) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.22) Change of Possession: 1 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards Win Probability (Before): 66.4% Win Probability (After): 66.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 9:41 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 6) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -0.61 | 31.5% | -0.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 94 Started Drive at: HOU 6 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.83 - -0.22 = -0.61 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.22) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.5% Win Probability (After): 30.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 9:24 | |
(2nd & 10 at HOU 6) Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the Houst 8 HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (-4 Yards) to the Houst 4 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -1.37 | 30.8% | -6.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 96 Started Drive at: HOU 6 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.20 - -0.89 = -1.37 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.83) Score Difference (End): -3 (-5.20) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards Win Probability (Before): 30.8% Win Probability (After): 24.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 8:45 | |
(3rd & 12 at HOU 4) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 23 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 3.30 | 23.9% | 11.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 73 Started Drive at: HOU 6 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - -2.15 = 3.30 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-5.15) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.85) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.9% Win Probability (After): 35.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 8:20 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 27) Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 21 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 1.30 | 34.9% | 6.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 52 Started Drive at: HOU 6 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.36 - 1.06 = 1.30 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.94) Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.64) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 34.9% Win Probability (After): 41.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 7:47 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 48) Seth Green pass intercepted Chandler Wooten return for no gain to the Houst 49 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -5.16 | 40.9% | -17.6% |
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Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 49 Started Drive at: HOU 6 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.80 - 2.35 = -5.16 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.65) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.80) Change of Possession: 1 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.9% Win Probability (After): 23.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 7:41 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 49) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -0.56 | 77.3% | -1.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49 Started Drive at: HOU 49 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.28 - 2.84 = -0.56 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.84) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.3% Win Probability (After): 75.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 7:35 | |
(2nd & 10 at HOU 49) Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Houst 48 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -0.86 | 75.9% | -3.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 48 Started Drive at: HOU 49 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.42 - 2.28 = -0.86 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.28) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.42) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.9% Win Probability (After): 72.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 6:57 | |
(3rd & 9 at HOU 48) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -1.83 | 74.1% | -7.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48 Started Drive at: HOU 49 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.23 - 1.60 = -1.83 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.60) Score Difference (End): 3 (2.77) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 74.1% Win Probability (After): 67.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 6:47 | |
(4th & 9 at HOU 48) Oscar Chapman punt for 48 yds for a touchback - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -0.75 | 67.3% | 3.1% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 80 Started Drive at: HOU 49 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.69 - 0.06 = -0.75 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.06) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.31) Change of Possession: 1 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.3% Win Probability (After): 70.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 6:35 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 20) Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 7 yds to the Houst 27 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 0.38 | 29.1% | 3.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 73 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.00 - 0.63 = 0.38 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.37) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.1% Win Probability (After): 32.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 5:55 | |
(2nd & 3 at HOU 27) Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 1 yd to the Houst 28 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -0.76 | 32.2% | -2.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 72 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 0.81 = -0.76 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.19) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.95) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.2% Win Probability (After): 29.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 5:30 | |
(3rd & 2 at HOU 28) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 6 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 1.38 | 29.0% | 5.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 66 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 0.09 = 1.38 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.91) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.52) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.0% Win Probability (After): 34.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 4:47 | |
(1st & 10 at HOU 34) Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Aub 49 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 1.05 | 33.8% | 7.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 49 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.53 - 1.47 = 1.05 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.52) Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 33.8% Win Probability (After): 40.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 4:35 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 49) Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Aub 46 - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -0.34 | 41.9% | -2.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 46 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 2.58 = -0.34 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.42) Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.76) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 34 yards Win Probability (Before): 41.9% Win Probability (After): 39.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 4:08 | |
(2nd & 7 at AUB 46) Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 20 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 | 1.86 | 38.2% | 20.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 26 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.02 - 2.17 = 1.86 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.83) Score Difference (End): -3 (1.02) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards Win Probability (Before): 38.2% Win Probability (After): 58.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 3:35 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 26) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 13 | -0.46 | 59.5% | -5.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 3.92 = -0.46 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.92) Score Difference (End): -3 (0.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 10, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 54 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.5% Win Probability (After): 54.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 3:27 | |
(2nd & 10 at AUB 26) Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 26 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) - HOU 17, AUB 13 | 3.60 | 54.6% | 25.0% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99 Started Drive at: HOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.40 = 3.60 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.40) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 17, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.6% Win Probability (After): 79.6% Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 3:27 | |
(Kickoff at AUB 35) Bubba Baxa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - HOU 17, AUB 13 | 0.00 | 26.7% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.77 - 0.77 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.23) Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.23) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 17, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.7% Win Probability (After): 26.7% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 3:17 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 25) Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the Aub 33 - HOU 17, AUB 13 | 0.18 | 26.7% | 1.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 0.94 = 0.18 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.06) Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.88) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 17, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.7% Win Probability (After): 28.5% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 2:51 | |
(2nd & 2 at AUB 33) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 17, AUB 13 | -0.57 | 26.7% | -1.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.57 - 1.14 = -0.57 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.86) Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 17, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.7% Win Probability (After): 25.5% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 2:46 | |
(3rd & 2 at AUB 33) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 17, AUB 13 | -1.33 | 23.6% | -3.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.77 - 0.56 = -1.33 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.44) Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.77) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 17, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.6% Win Probability (After): 19.9% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 2:42 | |
(4th & 2 at AUB 33) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 17, AUB 13 | -2.33 | 19.6% | -12.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 33 Started Drive at: AUB 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.14 - -0.81 = -2.33 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.81) Score Difference (End): 4 (7.14) Change of Possession: 1 Score: HOU 17, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.6% Win Probability (After): 7.4% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 2:36 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 33) Alton McCaskill run for 9 yds to the Aub 24 - HOU 17, AUB 13 | 0.78 | 94.9% | 0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 24 Started Drive at: AUB 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 3.14 = 0.78 Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.14) Score Difference (End): 4 (7.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 17, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 94.9% Win Probability (After): 95.1% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 2:35 | |
(2nd & 1 at AUB 24) Timeout AUBURN, clock 02:35 - HOU 17, AUB 13 | 0.00 | 95.0% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24 Started Drive at: AUB 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 3.92 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.92) Score Difference (End): 4 (7.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 17, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 95.0% Win Probability (After): 95.0% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 2:30 | |
(2nd & 1 at AUB 24) Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Aub 24 - HOU 17, AUB 13 | -0.43 | 93.5% | 1.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24 Started Drive at: AUB 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 3.90 = -0.43 Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.90) Score Difference (End): 4 (7.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 17, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 93.5% Win Probability (After): 94.6% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 2:29 | |
(3rd & 1 at AUB 24) Timeout AUBURN, clock 02:29 - HOU 17, AUB 13 | 0.00 | 92.7% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24 Started Drive at: AUB 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 3.47 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.47) Score Difference (End): 4 (7.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 17, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 92.7% Win Probability (After): 92.7% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 2:20 | |
(3rd & 1 at AUB 24) Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST down - HOU 17, AUB 13 | 0.45 | 92.5% | 1.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 21 Started Drive at: AUB 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.86 - 3.41 = 0.45 Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.41) Score Difference (End): 4 (7.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 17, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 92.5% Win Probability (After): 94.4% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 1:45 | |
(1st & 10 at AUB 21) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 23 - HOU 17, AUB 13 | -0.89 | 96.3% | -2.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 23 Started Drive at: AUB 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.72 - 3.61 = -0.89 Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.61) Score Difference (End): 4 (6.72) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 17, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 10 yards Win Probability (Before): 96.3% Win Probability (After): 94.0% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 0:50 | |
(2nd & 12 at AUB 23) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 25 - HOU 17, AUB 13 | -0.51 | 97.9% | -5.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 25 Started Drive at: AUB 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 2.46 = -0.51 Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.46) Score Difference (End): 4 (5.95) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 17, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 97.9% Win Probability (After): 92.7% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 0:20 | |
(3rd & 14 at AUB 25) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 27 - HOU 17, AUB 13 | -0.56 | 96.1% | 3.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 27 Started Drive at: AUB 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 2.04 = -0.56 Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.04) Score Difference (End): 4 (5.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: HOU 17, AUB 13 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 96.1% Win Probability (After): 100.0% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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