Houston 17 @ Auburn 13

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 6.73 | Odds: HOU -1.5, O/U 49.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 248 ESPN team id 2
Total Plays 7678
Total EPA -8.96-11.67
  Offensive EPA -1.59-9.03
  Special Teams EPA -4.53-3.56
  Penalty EPA -5.430.93
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 2.59-0.01
Production ESPN team id 248 ESPN team id 2
Scrimmage Plays 6766
  Yards 415352
  Yards/Play 6.195.33
  EPA -1.59-9.03
  EPA/Play -0.02-0.14
Passes 42 (63%)38 (58%)
  Yards 283227
  Yards/Play 6.745.97
  EPA 3.09-5.57
  EPA/Play 0.07-0.15
Rushes 25 (37%)28 (42%)
  Yards 114132
  Yards/Play 4.564.71
  EPA -4.69-3.46
  EPA/Play -0.19-0.12
Rushing ESPN team id 248 ESPN team id 2
Scrimmage Plays 6766
Rushes 25 (37%)28 (42%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 1 (4%)3 (11%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 1 (100%)1 (33%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 7 (28%)8 (29%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 11 (44%)14 (50%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 10 (40%)13 (46%)
OL Line Yards 22.232.7
  Per Carry 0.891.17
Highlight Yards 4451.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 4.403.96
Explosiveness ESPN team id 248 ESPN team id 2
Total Plays 7678
Scrimmage Plays 6766
Explosive Plays 7 (10%)5 (8%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 6 (14%)4 (11%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 1 (4%)1 (4%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -22.21-25.30
  EPA/Play -0.37-0.41
  When Passing -15.71-19.20
    EPA/Play -0.37-0.51
  When Rushing -6.50-6.10
    EPA/Play -0.27-0.23
Situational ESPN team id 248 ESPN team id 2
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 25 (37%)25 (38%)
  When Passing 16 (38%)13 (34%)
  When Rushing 9 (36%)12 (43%)
  On Standard Downs 18 (40%)19 (42%)
  On Passing Downs 7 (32%)6 (29%)
  On Early Downs 18 (35%)20 (42%)
  On Late Downs 7 (44%)5 (28%)
  During "Middle 8" 3 (38%)5 (36%)
Early Downs 5148
  First Downs Created 12 (24%)10 (21%)
  EPA -7.370.36
  EPA/Play -0.140.01
  Passes 30 (59%)25 (52%)
  Rushes 21 (41%)23 (48%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 10 (33%)9 (36%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 8 (38%)11 (48%)
"Middle 8" Plays 814
  EPA 0.130.67
  EPA/play 0.020.05
  Passes 3 (38%)10 (71%)
  Rushes 5 (63%)4 (29%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 2 (67%)3 (30%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 1 (20%)2 (50%)
Drives ESPN team id 248 ESPN team id 2
Total 1211
Avg Starting Field Position Own 24Own 25
Plays/Drive 7.097.65
Yards/Drive 43.9643.65
Available Yards % 58%58%
Defensive ESPN team id 248 ESPN team id 2
Scrimmage Plays 6667
Stop Rate 64%36%
Havoc Plays Created 8 (12%)10 (15%)
  Passing 3 (8%)4 (10%)
  Rushing 5 (18%)6 (24%)
TFLs Generated 88
  Passing 32
  Rushing 56
Sacks Generated 1 (3%)1 (2%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 02
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 248 ESPN team id 2
Turnovers 30
  Fumbles 22
  Fumbles Lost 10
  Fumbles Recovered 12
  Interceptions 20
Turnover Margin -33
Expected Turnovers 2.42.0
Expected Turnover Margin -0.40.4
Turnover Luck (pts) -12.812.8
Special Teams ESPN team id 248 ESPN team id 2
Total Plays 9 12
Total EPA -4.53 -3.56
  Field Goal EPA 2.07 1.67
  Punting EPA -1.43 -2.98
  Kickoff Return EPA -5.17 -2.25

Houston [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Clayton Tune 26/40, 283 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 1 Sck, 62.5 xQBR 6.90 0.20 8.25 39% 74.0%
Seth Green 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 0 Scks, 16.1 xQBR 0.00 -5.16 -5.16 0% -18.0%
Rush attempts
Clayton Tune 6 carries, 51 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 8.50 0.10 0.60 50% 4.0%
Alton McCaskill 14 carries, 71 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 5.07 -0.10 -1.37 43% -6.0%
Ta'Zhawn Henry 2 carries, -2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.00 -0.97 -1.94 0% -1.0%
TEAM 3 carries, -6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -2.00 -0.66 -1.97 0% -4.0%
Pass targets
Nathaniel Dell 10 catches (10 targets), 150 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.00 1.76 17.58 80% 60.0%
Jake Herslow 5 catches (5 targets), 65 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.00 0.98 4.88 80% 35.0%
Christian Trahan 3 catches (3 targets), 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 0.52 1.57 67% 15.0%
Alton McCaskill 4 catches (4 targets), 15 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.75 0.29 1.16 25% 11.0%
Jeremy Singleton 2 catches (2 targets), 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.50 0.25 0.49 50% 0.0%
Ta'Zhawn Henry 2 catches (2 targets), 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.84 -1.69 0% -2.0%

Auburn [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
TJ Finley 19/37, 227 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 41.5 xQBR 5.97 -0.15 -5.57 34% -13.0%
Rush attempts
Ja'Varrius Johnson 1 carry, 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 1.60 1.60 100% 7.0%
Malcolm Johnson Jr. 2 carries, 24 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.00 0.58 1.17 100% 2.0%
Tank Bigsby 16 carries, 96 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.00 -0.07 44% 4.0%
John Samuel Shenker 1 carry, 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.78 -0.78 0% -6.0%
TJ Finley 1 carry, 0 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.89 -0.89 0% -3.0%
TEAM 1 carry, -3 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) -3.00 -0.90 -0.90 0% -4.0%
Demetris Robertson 1 carry, -5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -5.00 -1.53 -1.53 0% -4.0%
Jarquez Hunter 5 carries, 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.40 -0.41 -2.06 40% -6.0%
Pass targets
Kobe Hudson 4 catches (4 targets), 57 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.25 1.71 6.86 100% 26.0%
Tank Bigsby 5 catches (5 targets), 68 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.60 0.74 3.69 60% 8.0%
John Samuel Shenker 5 catches (5 targets), 54 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.80 0.57 2.85 60% 6.0%
Ja'Varrius Johnson 1 catch (1 target), 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 20.00 2.46 2.46 100% 13.0%
Demetris Robertson 2 catches (2 targets), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.50 0.43 0.86 50% 1.0%
Shedrick Jackson 2 catches (2 targets), 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.50 0.37 0.74 50% -2.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 7:47 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 48) Seth Green pass intercepted Chandler Wooten return for no gain to the Houst 49 - HOU 10, AUB 13 -5.16 40.9% -17.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 49

Started Drive at: HOU 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.80 - 2.35 = -5.16

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.65)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.80)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.9%

Win Probability (After): 23.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:55 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & 6 at AUB 27) TJ Finley pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 51 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 0 4.59 15.4% 8.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 22

Started Drive at: AUB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.12 - -0.47 = 4.59

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.47)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.4%

Win Probability (After): 23.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:08 ESPN team id 2 (4th & 2 at HOU 20) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 -4.41 30.1% -9.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 80

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.88 - 2.53 = -4.41

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.47)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.88)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.1%

Win Probability (After): 21.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 3:27 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 10 at AUB 26) Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 26 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) - HOU 17, AUB 13 3.60 54.6% 25.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.40 = 3.60

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.40)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 17, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.6%

Win Probability (After): 79.6%

Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 13:00 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 12 at HOU 21) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 18 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST down - HOU 0, AUB 0 3.35 52.4% 10.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 61

Started Drive at: HOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.08 - -1.27 = 3.35

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.27)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 0, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.4%

Win Probability (After): 62.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:52 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & Goal at HOU 12) TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 12 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK) - HOU 10, AUB 13 3.31 44.6% 17.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: AUB 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.69 = 3.31

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.31)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.6%

Win Probability (After): 61.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:45 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 12 at HOU 4) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 23 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 3.30 23.9% 11.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 73

Started Drive at: HOU 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - -2.15 = 3.30

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-5.15)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.9%

Win Probability (After): 35.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 9:26 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 6 at AUB 26) TJ Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 41 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 6 3.27 34.7% 7.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 33

Started Drive at: AUB 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.76 - 0.49 = 3.27

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.51)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.7%

Win Probability (After): 42.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:55 ESPN team id 248 (4th & 1 at AUB 32) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 27 yds to the Aub 5 for a 1ST down - HOU 0, AUB 0 3.02 61.5% 5.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 5

Started Drive at: HOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.92 - 2.90 = 3.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.90)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 0, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.5%

Win Probability (After): 67.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:46 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 6 at HOU 39) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 25 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 2.87 38.6% 16.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 36

Started Drive at: HOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.55 - 0.68 = 2.87

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.32)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.6%

Win Probability (After): 54.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 3:27 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 10 at AUB 26) Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 26 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) - HOU 17, AUB 13 3.60 54.6% 25.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.40 = 3.60

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.40)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 17, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.6%

Win Probability (After): 79.6%

Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:08 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 7 at AUB 46) Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 20 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 1.86 38.2% 20.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 26

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.02 - 2.17 = 1.86

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.83)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.2%

Win Probability (After): 58.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 7:47 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 48) Seth Green pass intercepted Chandler Wooten return for no gain to the Houst 49 - HOU 10, AUB 13 -5.16 40.9% -17.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 49

Started Drive at: HOU 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.80 - 2.35 = -5.16

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.65)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.80)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.9%

Win Probability (After): 23.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:52 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & Goal at HOU 12) TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 12 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK) - HOU 10, AUB 13 3.31 44.6% 17.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: AUB 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.69 = 3.31

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.31)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.6%

Win Probability (After): 61.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:46 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 6 at HOU 39) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 25 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 2.87 38.6% 16.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 36

Started Drive at: HOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.55 - 0.68 = 2.87

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.32)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.6%

Win Probability (After): 54.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 5:51 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 17 at HOU 29) TJ Finley pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 20 yds to the Houst 9 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 6 2.46 41.6% 12.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 9

Started Drive at: AUB 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.24 - 2.78 = 2.46

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.22)

Score Difference (End): -4 (1.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.6%

Win Probability (After): 54.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:42 ESPN team id 2 (4th & 2 at AUB 33) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 17, AUB 13 -2.33 19.6% -12.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 33

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.14 - -0.81 = -2.33

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.81)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.14)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: HOU 17, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.6%

Win Probability (After): 7.4%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 12:12 ESPN team id 2 (4th & 9 at HOU 18) Ben Patton 35 yd FG GOOD - HOU 10, AUB 6 1.16 29.3% 11.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.84 = 1.16

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.16)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.3%

Win Probability (After): 41.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:46 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & Goal at AUB 5) Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 5 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) - HOU 7, AUB 0 2.66 64.9% 11.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: HOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.34 = 2.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.9%

Win Probability (After): 76.7%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:45 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 12 at HOU 4) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 23 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 3.30 23.9% 11.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 73

Started Drive at: HOU 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - -2.15 = 3.30

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-5.15)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.9%

Win Probability (After): 35.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 8:46 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & Goal at AUB 5) Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 5 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) - HOU 7, AUB 0 2.66 64.9% 11.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: HOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.34 = 2.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.9%

Win Probability (After): 76.7%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:58 ESPN team id 248 (4th & 12 at AUB 35) Dalton Witherspoon 52 yd FG GOOD - HOU 10, AUB 0 2.07 78.0% 5.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.93 = 2.07

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.93)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.0%

Win Probability (After): 83.2%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 3:10 ESPN team id 2 (4th & 9 at HOU 10) Ben Patton 27 yd FG GOOD - HOU 10, AUB 3 0.51 19.8% 10.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: AUB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.49 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.51)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.8%

Win Probability (After): 30.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 12:12 ESPN team id 2 (4th & 9 at HOU 18) Ben Patton 35 yd FG GOOD - HOU 10, AUB 6 1.16 29.3% 11.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.84 = 1.16

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.16)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.3%

Win Probability (After): 41.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:52 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & Goal at HOU 12) TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 12 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK) - HOU 10, AUB 13 3.31 44.6% 17.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: AUB 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.69 = 3.31

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.31)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.6%

Win Probability (After): 61.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:27 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 10 at AUB 26) Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 26 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) - HOU 17, AUB 13 3.60 54.6% 25.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.40 = 3.60

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.40)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 17, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.6%

Win Probability (After): 79.6%

Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 248 (Kickoff at HOU 35) Evan McGuire kickoff for 65 yds , Ta'Zhawn Henry return for 13 yds to the Houst 13 - HOU 0, AUB 0 -1.99 52.9% -3.2%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 87

Started Drive at: HOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.13 - 0.86 = -1.99

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 0, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.9%

Win Probability (After): 49.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:50 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 13) Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 10 yds to the Houst 23 for a 1ST down - HOU 0, AUB 0 0.38 59.0% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 77

Started Drive at: HOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.72 - 0.35 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 0, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.0%

Win Probability (After): 57.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:20 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 23) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 9 yds to the Houst 32 - HOU 0, AUB 0 1.03 59.3% 3.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 68

Started Drive at: HOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.94 - 0.91 = 1.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.91)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 0, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.3%

Win Probability (After): 62.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:45 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 1 at HOU 32) Alton McCaskill run for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 26 - HOU 0, AUB 0 -2.56 61.7% -5.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 74

Started Drive at: HOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.58 - 1.98 = -2.56

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 0, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.7%

Win Probability (After): 55.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:16 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 7 at HOU 26) HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 21 - HOU 0, AUB 0 -0.73 56.3% -2.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 79

Started Drive at: HOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.30 - -0.57 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 0, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.3%

Win Probability (After): 53.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:00 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 12 at HOU 21) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 18 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST down - HOU 0, AUB 0 3.35 52.4% 10.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 61

Started Drive at: HOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.08 - -1.27 = 3.35

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.27)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 0, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.4%

Win Probability (After): 62.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:30 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 39) Alton McCaskill run for 13 yds to the Aub 41 Alton McCaskill fumbled, recovered by Houst - HOU 0, AUB 0 1.39 61.4% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 41

Started Drive at: HOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.50 - 2.11 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 0, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.4%

Win Probability (After): 64.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:50 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at AUB 41) Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the Aub 37 - HOU 0, AUB 0 -0.19 62.8% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 37

Started Drive at: HOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.27 - 3.46 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.46)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 0, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.8%

Win Probability (After): 63.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:20 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 6 at AUB 37) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 3 yds to the Aub 34 - HOU 0, AUB 0 -0.16 63.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 34

Started Drive at: HOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.07 - 3.23 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.23)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 0, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.2%

Win Probability (After): 62.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:30 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 3 at AUB 34) Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 2 yds to the Aub 32 - HOU 0, AUB 0 -0.43 62.5% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 32

Started Drive at: HOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - 3.17 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 0, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.5%

Win Probability (After): 61.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:55 ESPN team id 248 (4th & 1 at AUB 32) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 27 yds to the Aub 5 for a 1ST down - HOU 0, AUB 0 3.02 61.5% 5.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 5

Started Drive at: HOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.92 - 2.90 = 3.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.90)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 0, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.5%

Win Probability (After): 67.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 9:30 ESPN team id 248 (1st & Goal at AUB 5) Alton McCaskill run for no gain to the Aub 5 - HOU 0, AUB 0 -0.52 67.5% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 5

Started Drive at: HOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.39 - 5.91 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.91)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 0, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.5%

Win Probability (After): 66.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:52 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & Goal at AUB 5) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 0, AUB 0 -1.07 66.8% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 5

Started Drive at: HOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.31 - 5.38 = -1.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.38)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 0, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.8%

Win Probability (After): 64.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:46 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & Goal at AUB 5) Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 5 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) - HOU 7, AUB 0 2.66 64.9% 11.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: HOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.34 = 2.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.9%

Win Probability (After): 76.7%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:46 ESPN team id 2 (Kickoff at AUB 35) Bubba Baxa kickoff for 62 yds , Jarquez Hunter return for 20 yds to the Aub 23 - HOU 7, AUB 0 -1.19 27.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 77

Started Drive at: AUB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.32 - -0.13 = -1.19

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.13)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.5%

Win Probability (After): 27.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:30 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at AUB 23) Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 22 - HOU 7, AUB 0 -0.97 26.9% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 78

Started Drive at: AUB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.17 - -0.21 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.21)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 25.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:05 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 11 at AUB 22) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 -0.99 25.0% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: AUB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.10 - -1.11 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.11)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.0%

Win Probability (After): 24.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:59 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & 11 at AUB 22) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 -0.96 23.7% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: AUB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.04 - -2.07 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.07)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-10.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.7%

Win Probability (After): 22.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:52 ESPN team id 2 (4th & 11 at AUB 22) Oscar Chapman punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jaylen Erwin at the Houst 30 - HOU 7, AUB 0 0.46 22.2% -1.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 70

Started Drive at: AUB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.56 - -3.02 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-10.02)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.56)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.2%

Win Probability (After): 20.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 7:47 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 30) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 -0.65 79.4% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: HOU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.90 - 2.55 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.55)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.4%

Win Probability (After): 78.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:35 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 10 at HOU 30) Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 28 - HOU 7, AUB 0 -1.52 78.6% -2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 72

Started Drive at: HOU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.37 - 1.89 = -1.52

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.89)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.6%

Win Probability (After): 76.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:02 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 12 at HOU 28) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 -1.22 76.0% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 72

Started Drive at: HOU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.78 - 0.45 = -1.22

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.45)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.0%

Win Probability (After): 74.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:56 ESPN team id 248 (4th & 12 at HOU 28) Laine Wilkins punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 35 - HOU 7, AUB 0 -0.33 74.5% -0.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 65

Started Drive at: HOU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.01 - -0.68 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.32)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.99)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.5%

Win Probability (After): 73.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 6:40 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at AUB 35) TJ Finley pass complete to Tank Bigsby for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 32 - HOU 7, AUB 0 -1.38 26.3% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 68

Started Drive at: AUB 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.38 - 1.00 = -1.38

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.00)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.3%

Win Probability (After): 24.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:15 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 13 at AUB 32) Tank Bigsby run for 10 yds to the Aub 42 - HOU 7, AUB 0 0.96 24.4% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 58

Started Drive at: AUB 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - -0.37 = 0.96

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.37)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.4%

Win Probability (After): 26.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:37 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & 3 at AUB 42) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 -1.83 25.5% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: AUB 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.26 - 0.58 = -1.83

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.42)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.5%

Win Probability (After): 24.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:30 ESPN team id 2 (4th & 3 at AUB 42) Oscar Chapman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Damarion Williams at the Houst 12 - HOU 7, AUB 0 -0.23 24.2% -2.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 88

Started Drive at: AUB 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.46 - -1.23 = -0.23

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.23)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.46)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.2%

Win Probability (After): 21.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 5:20 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 12) Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 3 yds to the Houst 15 - HOU 7, AUB 0 -0.30 78.2% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 85

Started Drive at: HOU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.18 - 1.48 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.48)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.2%

Win Probability (After): 77.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:45 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 7 at HOU 15) Clayton Tune run for 24 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST down - HOU 7, AUB 0 1.81 78.2% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 61

Started Drive at: HOU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 1.18 = 1.81

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.18)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:20 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 39) Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 38 - HOU 7, AUB 0 -0.86 80.8% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 62

Started Drive at: HOU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.16 - 3.01 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.01)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.8%

Win Probability (After): 80.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:38 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 11 at HOU 38) Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 3 yds to the Houst 41 - HOU 7, AUB 0 -0.52 79.9% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 59

Started Drive at: HOU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.67 - 2.19 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.19)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:05 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 8 at HOU 41) Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 4 yds to the Houst 45 - HOU 7, AUB 0 -1.26 79.2% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 55

Started Drive at: HOU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 1.69 = -1.26

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.69)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.2%

Win Probability (After): 78.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:21 ESPN team id 248 (4th & 4 at HOU 45) Laine Wilkins punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Ja'Varrius Johnson at the Aub 25 - HOU 7, AUB 0 -0.45 78.5% -4.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 75

Started Drive at: HOU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 0.46 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.46)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.02)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.5%

Win Probability (After): 74.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:15 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at AUB 25) Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the Aub 33 - HOU 7, AUB 0 0.82 25.6% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - -0.02 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.02)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.6%

Win Probability (After): 25.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:40 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 2 at AUB 33) TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 5 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST down - HOU 7, AUB 0 0.20 25.5% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 62

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 0.90 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.10)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.5%

Win Probability (After): 26.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:15 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at AUB 38) Malcolm Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST down - HOU 7, AUB 0 0.62 26.5% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 52

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 1.25 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.75)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.5%

Win Probability (After): 27.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:40 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at AUB 48) Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 49 - HOU 7, AUB 0 -0.56 27.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 51

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.39 - 1.95 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.05)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.0%

Win Probability (After): 27.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 9 at AUB 49) Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Houst 48 - HOU 7, AUB 0 -0.42 26.5% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 48

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.96 - 1.39 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.61)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.5%

Win Probability (After): 25.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:40 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & 6 at HOU 48) TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 10 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST down - HOU 7, AUB 0 1.93 24.7% 3.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 38

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.91 - 0.98 = 1.93

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.02)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.7%

Win Probability (After): 28.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:20 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at HOU 38) Demetris Robertson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 43 - HOU 7, AUB 0 -1.53 29.4% -4.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 43

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.43 - 2.95 = -1.53

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.05)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.4%

Win Probability (After): 25.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:45 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 15 at HOU 43) TJ Finley pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 10 yds to the Houst 33 - HOU 7, AUB 0 1.00 24.9% 2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 33

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 1.40 = 1.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.60)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.9%

Win Probability (After): 27.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:09 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & 5 at HOU 33) HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Houst 28 for a 1ST down - HOU 7, AUB 0 1.41 26.5% 4.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 28

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.78 - 2.37 = 1.41

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.63)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.5%

Win Probability (After): 30.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:40 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at HOU 28) Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the Houst 20 - HOU 7, AUB 0 0.64 30.5% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 20

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.46 - 3.82 = 0.64

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.18)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.5%

Win Probability (After): 33.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:04 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 2 at HOU 20) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 -0.63 33.3% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.85 - 4.48 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.52)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.3%

Win Probability (After): 31.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:00 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & 2 at HOU 20) Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the Houst 20 - HOU 7, AUB 0 -1.33 31.1% -3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.52 - 3.86 = -1.33

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.14)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.1%

Win Probability (After): 28.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:24 ESPN team id 2 (4th & 2 at HOU 20) Timeout HOUSTON, clock 11:24 - HOU 7, AUB 0 0.00 28.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.52 - 2.52 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.48)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.3%

Win Probability (After): 28.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:08 ESPN team id 2 (4th & 2 at HOU 20) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 -4.41 30.1% -9.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 80

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.88 - 2.53 = -4.41

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.47)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.88)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.1%

Win Probability (After): 21.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:00 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 20) Clayton Tune run for 13 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST down - HOU 7, AUB 0 0.67 79.1% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 67

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.51 - 1.84 = 0.67

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.84)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.1%

Win Probability (After): 79.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:30 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 33) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 -0.65 80.2% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.90 - 2.55 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.55)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.2%

Win Probability (After): 79.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:25 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 10 at HOU 33) Alton McCaskill run for 11 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST down - HOU 7, AUB 0 1.20 79.7% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 56

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 1.99 = 1.20

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.99)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.7%

Win Probability (After): 82.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:45 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 44) Alton McCaskill run for 7 yds to the Aub 49 - HOU 7, AUB 0 0.38 81.5% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 49

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 3.07 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.07)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.5%

Win Probability (After): 82.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:50 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 3 at AUB 49) Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 16 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST down - HOU 7, AUB 0 1.25 80.2% 1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 33

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.32 - 3.07 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.07)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.2%

Win Probability (After): 82.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:24 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at AUB 33) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 -0.35 81.2% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.59 - 3.94 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.94)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:17 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 10 at AUB 33) HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 43 - HOU 7, AUB 0 -1.37 80.7% -1.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 43

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.15 - 3.52 = -1.37

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.52)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.7%

Win Probability (After): 79.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:45 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 20 at AUB 43) Clayton Tune pass complete to Alton McCaskill for 8 yds to the Aub 35 - HOU 7, AUB 0 -0.35 79.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 35

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.92 - 2.27 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.27)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.0%

Win Probability (After): 78.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:04 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 12 at AUB 35) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 7, AUB 0 -1.45 79.1% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.70 - 2.15 = -1.45

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.15)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 7, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.1%

Win Probability (After): 77.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:58 ESPN team id 248 (4th & 12 at AUB 35) Dalton Witherspoon 52 yd FG GOOD - HOU 10, AUB 0 2.07 78.0% 5.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.93 = 2.07

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.93)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.0%

Win Probability (After): 83.2%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 6:52 ESPN team id 2 (Kickoff at AUB 35) Kyle Ramsey kickoff for 64 yds , Jarquez Hunter return for 22 yds to the Aub 23 - HOU 10, AUB 0 -1.06 18.9% -1.6%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 77

Started Drive at: AUB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.47 - 0.59 = -1.06

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.41)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.9%

Win Probability (After): 17.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:46 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at AUB 23) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 0 -0.64 19.1% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77

Started Drive at: AUB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 0.63 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.37)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.1%

Win Probability (After): 17.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:38 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 10 at AUB 23) TJ Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 4 yds to the Aub 27 - HOU 10, AUB 0 -0.38 17.6% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 73

Started Drive at: AUB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.36 - 0.02 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.98)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.6%

Win Probability (After): 16.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:55 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & 6 at AUB 27) TJ Finley pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 51 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 0 4.59 15.4% 8.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 22

Started Drive at: AUB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.12 - -0.47 = 4.59

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.47)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.4%

Win Probability (After): 23.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:05 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at HOU 22) TJ Finley pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 11 yds to the Houst 11 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 0 0.54 23.9% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 11

Started Drive at: AUB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.66 - 4.12 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.88)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.9%

Win Probability (After): 24.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:45 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at HOU 11) Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Houst 10 - HOU 10, AUB 0 -0.52 24.9% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 10

Started Drive at: AUB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.20 - 4.73 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.27)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.9%

Win Probability (After): 24.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:05 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 9 at HOU 10) Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the Houst 10 - HOU 10, AUB 0 -0.77 24.6% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: AUB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 4.24 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.76)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.6%

Win Probability (After): 22.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:14 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & 9 at HOU 10) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 0 -1.10 21.7% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: AUB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.45 - 3.55 = -1.10

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.45)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.7%

Win Probability (After): 20.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:10 ESPN team id 2 (4th & 9 at HOU 10) Ben Patton 27 yd FG GOOD - HOU 10, AUB 3 0.51 19.8% 10.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: AUB 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.49 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.51)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.8%

Win Probability (After): 30.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 3:04 ESPN team id 248 (Kickoff at HOU 35) Evan McGuire kickoff for 64 yds , Ta'Zhawn Henry return for 21 yds to the Houst 22 - HOU 10, AUB 3 -0.81 78.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 78

Started Drive at: HOU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.25 - 1.07 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.07)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.3%

Win Probability (After): 78.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:55 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 22) Alton McCaskill run for 17 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 3 0.70 78.2% 2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 61

Started Drive at: HOU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.74 - 1.04 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.04)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:20 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 39) Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 8 yds to the Houst 47 - HOU 10, AUB 3 0.13 80.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 53

Started Drive at: HOU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.94 - 1.81 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.81)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.6%

Win Probability (After): 80.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:49 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 2 at HOU 47) Clayton Tune sacked by Eku Leota for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 39 - HOU 10, AUB 3 -0.76 80.5% -2.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 61

Started Drive at: HOU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - 1.67 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.67)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.5%

Win Probability (After): 78.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:49 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 10 at HOU 39) Timeout AUBURN, clock 01:49 - HOU 10, AUB 3 0.00 78.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: HOU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - 0.90 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.90)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.6%

Win Probability (After): 78.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:43 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 10 at HOU 39) Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Houst 42 - HOU 10, AUB 3 -0.79 79.3% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 58

Started Drive at: HOU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 0.75 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.75)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.3%

Win Probability (After): 77.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:43 ESPN team id 248 (4th & 7 at HOU 42) Timeout AUBURN, clock 01:43 - HOU 10, AUB 3 0.00 77.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: HOU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - -0.03 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.97)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.8%

Win Probability (After): 77.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:36 ESPN team id 248 (4th & 7 at HOU 42) Laine Wilkins punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ja'Varrius Johnson at the Aub 15 - HOU 10, AUB 3 -0.41 77.6% -1.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 85

Started Drive at: HOU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.42 - -0.01 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.99)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.58)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.6%

Win Probability (After): 76.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:30 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at AUB 15) TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 30 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 3 1.41 23.5% 3.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 55

Started Drive at: AUB 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.54 - 0.13 = 1.41

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.87)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.5%

Win Probability (After): 27.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:26 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at AUB 45) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 3 -0.32 27.3% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: AUB 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.09 - 1.41 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.59)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.3%

Win Probability (After): 26.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:20 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 10 at AUB 45) TJ Finley pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 5 yds to the 50 yard line - HOU 10, AUB 3 -0.14 26.2% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 50

Started Drive at: AUB 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 1.17 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.83)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.2%

Win Probability (After): 24.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:05 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & 5 at 50) TJ Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 5 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 3 0.76 25.1% 3.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 45

Started Drive at: AUB 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.78 - 1.02 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.98)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.1%

Win Probability (After): 28.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:57 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at HOU 45) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 3 -0.15 28.4% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45

Started Drive at: AUB 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.43 - 1.59 = -0.15

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.41)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.4%

Win Probability (After): 27.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:53 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 10 at HOU 45) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 3 -0.30 27.7% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45

Started Drive at: AUB 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 1.38 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.62)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.7%

Win Probability (After): 25.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:43 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & 10 at HOU 45) TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Aub - HOU 10, AUB 3 -0.90 25.6% -4.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 48

Started Drive at: AUB 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - 1.08 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.92)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.6%

Win Probability (After): 21.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:35 ESPN team id 2 (4th & 13 at HOU 48) Oscar Chapman punt for 33 yds, downed at the Houst 15 - HOU 10, AUB 3 -0.57 21.8% -1.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 85

Started Drive at: AUB 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.27 - 0.30 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.70)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.27)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.8%

Win Probability (After): 20.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 15) Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the Houst 17 - HOU 10, AUB 3 -0.02 78.6% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 83

Started Drive at: HOU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.26 - 0.02 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.02)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.6%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2 (Kickoff at AUB 35) Bubba Baxa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - HOU 10, AUB 3 0.00 25.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.48 - -0.48 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.48)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.0%

Win Probability (After): 25.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:50 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at AUB 25) TJ Finley pass complete to Shedrick Jackson for 9 yds to the Aub 34 - HOU 10, AUB 3 1.12 27.3% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.89 - -0.23 = 1.12

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.23)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.3%

Win Probability (After): 25.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:05 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 1 at AUB 34) Tank Bigsby run for 15 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 3 0.58 27.8% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 51

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.72 - 1.14 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.86)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.8%

Win Probability (After): 30.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:35 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at AUB 49) Tank Bigsby run for 32 yds to the Houst 19 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 3 2.65 29.8% 6.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 19

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.36 - 1.72 = 2.65

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.28)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.8%

Win Probability (After): 35.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:45 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at HOU 19) Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 23 - HOU 10, AUB 3 -1.52 36.0% -4.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 23

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 4.34 = -1.52

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.66)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.0%

Win Probability (After): 31.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:22 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 14 at HOU 23) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 3 -0.85 31.3% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 2.87 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.13)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.3%

Win Probability (After): 29.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:17 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & 14 at HOU 23) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 3 -0.56 29.3% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.54 - 2.09 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.91)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.3%

Win Probability (After): 27.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:17 ESPN team id 2 (4th & 14 at HOU 23) HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Houst 18 - HOU 10, AUB 3 0.31 27.6% 2.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 18

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.85 - 1.54 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.46)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.6%

Win Probability (After): 29.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 12:12 ESPN team id 2 (4th & 9 at HOU 18) Ben Patton 35 yd FG GOOD - HOU 10, AUB 6 1.16 29.3% 11.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.84 = 1.16

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.16)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.3%

Win Probability (After): 41.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 3 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 12:07 ESPN team id 248 (Kickoff at HOU 35) Evan McGuire kickoff for 53 yds , Nathaniel Dell return for 11 yds to the Houst 23 - HOU 10, AUB 6 -1.16 71.9% -2.1%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 77

Started Drive at: HOU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.36 - 1.52 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.52)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.9%

Win Probability (After): 69.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:55 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 23) Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the Houst 25 - HOU 10, AUB 6 -0.49 71.5% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 75

Started Drive at: HOU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.89 - 1.38 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.38)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.5%

Win Probability (After): 70.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:25 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 8 at HOU 25) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 17 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 6 1.79 69.5% 4.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 58

Started Drive at: HOU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 0.79 = 1.79

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.79)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.5%

Win Probability (After): 73.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:00 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 42) Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Houst 45 - HOU 10, AUB 6 -0.44 73.2% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 55

Started Drive at: HOU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 2.61 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.61)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.2%

Win Probability (After): 72.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:23 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 7 at HOU 45) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 6 -1.11 74.1% -3.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: HOU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.27 - 2.38 = -1.11

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.38)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.1%

Win Probability (After): 70.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:19 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 7 at HOU 45) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 6 -1.64 69.5% -3.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: HOU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.23 - 1.41 = -1.64

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.41)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.5%

Win Probability (After): 66.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:12 ESPN team id 248 (4th & 7 at HOU 45) Laine Wilkins punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ja'Varrius Johnson at the Aub 22 - HOU 10, AUB 6 -0.24 64.4% 2.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 78

Started Drive at: HOU 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.54 - -0.30 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.70)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.46)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.4%

Win Probability (After): 66.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:06 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at AUB 22) Tank Bigsby run for 4 yds to the Aub 26 - HOU 10, AUB 6 -0.08 32.6% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 74

Started Drive at: AUB 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.33 - 0.41 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.59)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.6%

Win Probability (After): 33.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:26 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 6 at AUB 26) TJ Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 41 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 6 3.27 34.7% 7.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 33

Started Drive at: AUB 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.76 - 0.49 = 3.27

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.51)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.7%

Win Probability (After): 42.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:00 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at HOU 33) TJ Finley pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 7 yds to the Houst 26 - HOU 10, AUB 6 0.28 44.7% 2.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 26

Started Drive at: AUB 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.20 - 3.92 = 0.28

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.08)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.7%

Win Probability (After): 47.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:20 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 3 at HOU 26) TJ Finley pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 2 yds to the Houst 24 - HOU 10, AUB 6 -0.35 47.1% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 24

Started Drive at: AUB 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.82 - 4.16 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.16)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.1%

Win Probability (After): 45.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:40 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & 1 at HOU 24) TJ Finley run for no gain to the Houst 24 TJ Finley fumbled, recovered by Aub Keiondre Jones - HOU 10, AUB 6 -0.89 44.0% -3.0%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: AUB 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.84 - 3.73 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.27)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.0%

Win Probability (After): 41.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:10 ESPN team id 2 (4th & 1 at HOU 24) Timeout AUBURN, clock 07:10 - HOU 10, AUB 6 0.00 40.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: AUB 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.84 - 2.84 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.16)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.2%

Win Probability (After): 40.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:04 ESPN team id 2 (4th & 1 at HOU 24) Ja'Varrius Johnson run for 2 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 6 1.60 40.8% 7.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 22

Started Drive at: AUB 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 2.89 = 1.60

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.11)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.8%

Win Probability (After): 47.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:30 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at HOU 22) TJ Finley sacked by David Anenih for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 29 - HOU 10, AUB 6 -1.66 47.6% -8.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 29

Started Drive at: AUB 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 4.47 = -1.66

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.47)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.6%

Win Probability (After): 39.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:59 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 17 at HOU 29) Timeout HOUSTON, clock 05:59 - HOU 10, AUB 6 0.00 39.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 29

Started Drive at: AUB 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 2.82 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.18)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.8%

Win Probability (After): 39.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 5:51 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 17 at HOU 29) TJ Finley pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 20 yds to the Houst 9 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 6 2.46 41.6% 12.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 9

Started Drive at: AUB 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.24 - 2.78 = 2.46

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.22)

Score Difference (End): -4 (1.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.6%

Win Probability (After): 54.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 5:25 ESPN team id 2 (1st & Goal at HOU 9) Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Houst 8 - HOU 10, AUB 6 -0.55 54.5% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 8

Started Drive at: AUB 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.71 - 5.25 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -4 (1.25)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.5%

Win Probability (After): 53.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:50 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & Goal at HOU 8) John Samuel Shenker run for 1 yd to the Houst 7 - HOU 10, AUB 6 -0.78 53.0% -5.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 7

Started Drive at: AUB 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.97 - 4.75 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.75)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.0%

Win Probability (After): 47.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:20 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & Goal at HOU 7) AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 12 - HOU 10, AUB 6 -0.80 47.3% -4.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 12

Started Drive at: AUB 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.22 - 4.02 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.02)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 6

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.3%

Win Probability (After): 43.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:52 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & Goal at HOU 12) TJ Finley pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 12 yds for a TD, (Ben Patton KICK) - HOU 10, AUB 13 3.31 44.6% 17.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: AUB 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.69 = 3.31

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.31)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.6%

Win Probability (After): 61.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 6 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:47 ESPN team id 248 (Kickoff at HOU 35) Evan McGuire kickoff for 50 yds , Sedrick Williams return for 7 yds to the Houst 22 - HOU 10, AUB 13 -1.21 41.5% -2.5%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 78

Started Drive at: HOU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.50 - 0.71 = -1.21

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.29)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.5%

Win Probability (After): 39.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:40 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 22) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 20 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 1.40 41.2% 5.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 58

Started Drive at: HOU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.99 - 0.58 = 1.40

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.42)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.2%

Win Probability (After): 46.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:27 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 42) HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 37 - HOU 10, AUB 13 -0.73 45.1% -0.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 63

Started Drive at: HOU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 1.98 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.02)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.1%

Win Probability (After): 44.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:00 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 15 at HOU 37) Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for no gain to the Houst 37 - HOU 10, AUB 13 -0.66 43.0% -4.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: HOU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.61 - 1.27 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.73)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.0%

Win Probability (After): 38.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:28 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 15 at HOU 37) Clayton Tune pass intercepted Nehemiah Pritchett return for no gain to the Aub 37 AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Aub 28 - HOU 10, AUB 13 -2.34 39.6% -4.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 72

Started Drive at: HOU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.73 - 0.61 = -2.34

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.39)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.73)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.6%

Win Probability (After): 35.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:55 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at AUB 28) Tank Bigsby run for 9 yds to the Aub 37 - HOU 10, AUB 13 0.91 64.5% 2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 63

Started Drive at: AUB 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 1.71 = 0.91

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.71)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.5%

Win Probability (After): 67.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:45 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 1 at AUB 37) Malcolm Johnson Jr. run for 14 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 0.55 67.5% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 49

Started Drive at: AUB 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.17 - 2.62 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.62)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.5%

Win Probability (After): 68.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:15 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at HOU 49) TJ Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 5 yds to the Houst 44 - HOU 10, AUB 13 -0.02 69.0% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 44

Started Drive at: AUB 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.18 - 3.20 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.20)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.0%

Win Probability (After): 69.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:25 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 5 at HOU 44) TJ Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 45 - HOU 10, AUB 13 -1.19 69.9% -4.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 45

Started Drive at: AUB 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.01 - 3.19 = -1.19

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.19)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.9%

Win Probability (After): 65.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:12 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & 6 at HOU 45) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 13 -1.99 66.9% -4.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45

Started Drive at: AUB 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.03 - 2.02 = -1.99

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.02)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.9%

Win Probability (After): 62.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:03 ESPN team id 2 (4th & 6 at HOU 45) Oscar Chapman punt for 10 yds, downed at the Houst 35 - HOU 10, AUB 13 -1.79 62.8% -6.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 65

Started Drive at: AUB 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.74 - 0.05 = -1.79

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.05)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.26)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.8%

Win Probability (After): 56.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 35) Alton McCaskill run for 4 yds to the Houst 39 - HOU 10, AUB 13 -0.25 43.0% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 61

Started Drive at: HOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 1.73 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.27)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.0%

Win Probability (After): 43.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:55 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 6 at HOU 39) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 13 -0.89 43.9% -3.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: HOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.62 - 1.51 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.49)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.9%

Win Probability (After): 40.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:46 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 6 at HOU 39) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 25 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 2.87 38.6% 16.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 36

Started Drive at: HOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.55 - 0.68 = 2.87

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.32)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.6%

Win Probability (After): 54.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:10 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at AUB 36) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 2 yds to the Aub 34 - HOU 10, AUB 13 -0.41 54.4% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 34

Started Drive at: HOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 3.52 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.52)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.4%

Win Probability (After): 52.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:30 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 8 at AUB 34) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 13 -0.91 52.5% -6.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: HOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.19 - 3.09 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.09)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.5%

Win Probability (After): 46.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:24 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 8 at AUB 34) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 13 -1.65 46.6% -7.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: HOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 2.20 = -1.65

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.80)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.6%

Win Probability (After): 38.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:17 ESPN team id 248 (4th & 8 at AUB 34) Clayton Tune run for 6 yds to the Aub 28 - HOU 10, AUB 13 -2.26 39.0% -6.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 72

Started Drive at: HOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.71 - 0.55 = -2.26

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.45)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.71)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.0%

Win Probability (After): 32.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 13:10 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at AUB 28) Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the Aub 33 - HOU 10, AUB 13 0.02 67.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 67

Started Drive at: AUB 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.76 - 1.74 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.74)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.5%

Win Probability (After): 67.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:30 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 5 at AUB 33) Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 0.79 67.7% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 59

Started Drive at: AUB 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.54 - 1.74 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.74)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.7%

Win Probability (After): 69.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:50 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at AUB 41) Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the Aub 46 - HOU 10, AUB 13 0.00 69.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 54

Started Drive at: AUB 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 2.57 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.57)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.3%

Win Probability (After): 69.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:10 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 5 at AUB 46) TJ Finley pass complete to John Samuel Shenker for 4 yds to the 50 yard line - HOU 10, AUB 13 0.03 69.9% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 50

Started Drive at: AUB 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 2.60 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.60)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.9%

Win Probability (After): 68.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 10:35 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & 1 at 50) Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 49 - HOU 10, AUB 13 -2.11 70.9% -5.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 51

Started Drive at: AUB 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.47 - 2.58 = -2.11

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.58)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.9%

Win Probability (After): 65.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:47 ESPN team id 2 (4th & 2 at AUB 49) Oscar Chapman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Houst 6 - HOU 10, AUB 13 -0.10 66.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 94

Started Drive at: AUB 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - 0.32 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.32)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.22)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.4%

Win Probability (After): 66.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:41 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 6) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 13 -0.61 31.5% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 94

Started Drive at: HOU 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.83 - -0.22 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.22)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.5%

Win Probability (After): 30.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:24 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 10 at HOU 6) Alton McCaskill run for 2 yds to the Houst 8 HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (-4 Yards) to the Houst 4 - HOU 10, AUB 13 -1.37 30.8% -6.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 96

Started Drive at: HOU 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.20 - -0.89 = -1.37

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.83)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-5.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.8%

Win Probability (After): 24.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:45 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 12 at HOU 4) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 23 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 3.30 23.9% 11.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 73

Started Drive at: HOU 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - -2.15 = 3.30

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-5.15)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.9%

Win Probability (After): 35.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:20 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 27) Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 21 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 1.30 34.9% 6.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 52

Started Drive at: HOU 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.36 - 1.06 = 1.30

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.94)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.9%

Win Probability (After): 41.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 7:47 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 48) Seth Green pass intercepted Chandler Wooten return for no gain to the Houst 49 - HOU 10, AUB 13 -5.16 40.9% -17.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 49

Started Drive at: HOU 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.80 - 2.35 = -5.16

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.65)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.80)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.9%

Win Probability (After): 23.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 7:41 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at HOU 49) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 13 -0.56 77.3% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: HOU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.28 - 2.84 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.84)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.3%

Win Probability (After): 75.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 7:35 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 10 at HOU 49) Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Houst 48 - HOU 10, AUB 13 -0.86 75.9% -3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 48

Started Drive at: HOU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.42 - 2.28 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.28)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.9%

Win Probability (After): 72.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 6:57 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & 9 at HOU 48) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 13 -1.83 74.1% -7.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48

Started Drive at: HOU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.23 - 1.60 = -1.83

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.60)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.1%

Win Probability (After): 67.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 6:47 ESPN team id 2 (4th & 9 at HOU 48) Oscar Chapman punt for 48 yds for a touchback - HOU 10, AUB 13 -0.75 67.3% 3.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 80

Started Drive at: HOU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.69 - 0.06 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.06)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.31)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.3%

Win Probability (After): 70.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 6:35 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 20) Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 7 yds to the Houst 27 - HOU 10, AUB 13 0.38 29.1% 3.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 73

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.00 - 0.63 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.37)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.1%

Win Probability (After): 32.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:55 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 3 at HOU 27) Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 1 yd to the Houst 28 - HOU 10, AUB 13 -0.76 32.2% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 72

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 0.81 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.19)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.2%

Win Probability (After): 29.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:30 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 2 at HOU 28) Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 6 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 1.38 29.0% 5.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 66

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 0.09 = 1.38

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.91)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.0%

Win Probability (After): 34.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:47 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at HOU 34) Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Aub 49 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 1.05 33.8% 7.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 49

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.53 - 1.47 = 1.05

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.52)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.8%

Win Probability (After): 40.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:35 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at AUB 49) Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Aub 46 - HOU 10, AUB 13 -0.34 41.9% -2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 46

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 2.58 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.42)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.9%

Win Probability (After): 39.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:08 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 7 at AUB 46) Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 20 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST down - HOU 10, AUB 13 1.86 38.2% 20.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 26

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.02 - 2.17 = 1.86

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.83)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.2%

Win Probability (After): 58.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:35 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at AUB 26) Clayton Tune pass incomplete - HOU 10, AUB 13 -0.46 59.5% -5.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 3.92 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.92)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 10, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.5%

Win Probability (After): 54.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:27 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 10 at AUB 26) Clayton Tune pass complete to Jake Herslow for 26 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) - HOU 17, AUB 13 3.60 54.6% 25.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99

Started Drive at: HOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.40 = 3.60

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.40)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 17, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.6%

Win Probability (After): 79.6%

Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:27 ESPN team id 2 (Kickoff at AUB 35) Bubba Baxa kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - HOU 17, AUB 13 0.00 26.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.77 - 0.77 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.23)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 17, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.7%

Win Probability (After): 26.7%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:17 ESPN team id 2 (1st & 10 at AUB 25) Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the Aub 33 - HOU 17, AUB 13 0.18 26.7% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 0.94 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.06)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 17, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.7%

Win Probability (After): 28.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:51 ESPN team id 2 (2nd & 2 at AUB 33) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 17, AUB 13 -0.57 26.7% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.57 - 1.14 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.86)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 17, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.7%

Win Probability (After): 25.5%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:46 ESPN team id 2 (3rd & 2 at AUB 33) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 17, AUB 13 -1.33 23.6% -3.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.77 - 0.56 = -1.33

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.44)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 17, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.6%

Win Probability (After): 19.9%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:42 ESPN team id 2 (4th & 2 at AUB 33) TJ Finley pass incomplete - HOU 17, AUB 13 -2.33 19.6% -12.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 33

Started Drive at: AUB 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.14 - -0.81 = -2.33

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.81)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.14)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: HOU 17, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.6%

Win Probability (After): 7.4%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:36 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at AUB 33) Alton McCaskill run for 9 yds to the Aub 24 - HOU 17, AUB 13 0.78 94.9% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 24

Started Drive at: AUB 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 3.14 = 0.78

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.14)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 17, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.9%

Win Probability (After): 95.1%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:35 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 1 at AUB 24) Timeout AUBURN, clock 02:35 - HOU 17, AUB 13 0.00 95.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: AUB 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 3.92 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.92)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 17, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.0%

Win Probability (After): 95.0%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:30 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 1 at AUB 24) Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Aub 24 - HOU 17, AUB 13 -0.43 93.5% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: AUB 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 3.90 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.90)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 17, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.5%

Win Probability (After): 94.6%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:29 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 1 at AUB 24) Timeout AUBURN, clock 02:29 - HOU 17, AUB 13 0.00 92.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: AUB 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 3.47 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.47)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 17, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.7%

Win Probability (After): 92.7%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:20 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 1 at AUB 24) Alton McCaskill run for 3 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST down - HOU 17, AUB 13 0.45 92.5% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 21

Started Drive at: AUB 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.86 - 3.41 = 0.45

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.41)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 17, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.5%

Win Probability (After): 94.4%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:45 ESPN team id 248 (1st & 10 at AUB 21) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 23 - HOU 17, AUB 13 -0.89 96.3% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 23

Started Drive at: AUB 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.72 - 3.61 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.61)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 17, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.3%

Win Probability (After): 94.0%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:50 ESPN team id 248 (2nd & 12 at AUB 23) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 25 - HOU 17, AUB 13 -0.51 97.9% -5.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 25

Started Drive at: AUB 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 2.46 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.46)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 17, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.9%

Win Probability (After): 92.7%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:20 ESPN team id 248 (3rd & 14 at AUB 25) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 27 - HOU 17, AUB 13 -0.56 96.1% 3.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 27

Started Drive at: AUB 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 2.04 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.04)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: HOU 17, AUB 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.1%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1