Air Force 31 @ Louisville 28

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 4.89 | Odds: AFA -1, O/U 55.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

Download Chart

Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 2005 ESPN team id 97
Total Plays 7468
Total EPA 17.5912.69
  Offensive EPA 19.8616.07
  Special Teams EPA -1.531.98
  Penalty EPA -0.07-5.37
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA -0.670.01
Production ESPN team id 2005 ESPN team id 97
Scrimmage Plays 6559
  Yards 437399
  Yards/Play 6.726.76
  EPA 19.8616.07
  EPA/Play 0.310.27
Passes 12 (18%)24 (41%)
  Yards 252207
  Yards/Play 21.008.62
  EPA 20.1211.96
  EPA/Play 1.680.50
Rushes 53 (82%)35 (59%)
  Yards 182195
  Yards/Play 3.435.57
  EPA -0.264.11
  EPA/Play 0.000.12
Rushing ESPN team id 2005 ESPN team id 97
Scrimmage Plays 6559
Rushes 53 (82%)35 (59%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 1 (2%)3 (9%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 1 (100%)2 (67%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 8 (15%)9 (26%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 24 (45%)12 (34%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 20 (38%)21 (60%)
OL Line Yards 10937.2
  Per Carry 2.061.06
Highlight Yards 2680.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 1.303.83
Explosiveness ESPN team id 2005 ESPN team id 97
Total Plays 7468
Scrimmage Plays 6559
Explosive Plays 6 (9%)6 (10%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 5 (42%)3 (12%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 1 (2%)3 (9%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -0.70-5.76
  EPA/Play -0.01-0.11
  When Passing 2.180.52
    EPA/Play 0.180.02
  When Rushing -2.88-6.28
    EPA/Play -0.06-0.20
Situational ESPN team id 2005 ESPN team id 97
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 31 (48%)30 (51%)
  When Passing 9 (75%)11 (46%)
  When Rushing 22 (42%)19 (54%)
  On Standard Downs 21 (47%)20 (50%)
  On Passing Downs 10 (50%)10 (53%)
  On Early Downs 22 (44%)22 (51%)
  On Late Downs 9 (60%)8 (50%)
  During "Middle 8" 9 (60%)3 (38%)
Early Downs 5043
  First Downs Created 12 (24%)10 (23%)
  EPA 7.928.23
  EPA/Play 0.160.19
  Passes 6 (12%)17 (40%)
  Rushes 44 (88%)26 (60%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 5 (83%)8 (47%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 17 (39%)14 (54%)
"Middle 8" Plays 158
  EPA 4.791.41
  EPA/play 0.320.18
  Passes 6 (40%)6 (75%)
  Rushes 9 (60%)2 (25%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 4 (67%)2 (33%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 5 (56%)1 (50%)
Drives ESPN team id 2005 ESPN team id 97
Total 98
Avg Starting Field Position Own 21Own 28
Plays/Drive 9.869.02
Yards/Drive 56.6956.56
Available Yards % 72%79%
Defensive ESPN team id 2005 ESPN team id 97
Scrimmage Plays 5965
Stop Rate 37%18%
Havoc Plays Created 8 (14%)6 (9%)
  Passing 2 (8%)2 (17%)
  Rushing 6 (17%)4 (8%)
TFLs Generated 86
  Passing 22
  Rushing 64
Sacks Generated 2 (8%)2 (17%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 00
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 2005 ESPN team id 97
Turnovers 01
  Fumbles 14
  Fumbles Lost 01
  Fumbles Recovered 13
  Interceptions 00
Turnover Margin 1-1
Expected Turnovers 2.52.5
Expected Turnover Margin 0.00.0
Turnover Luck (pts) 5.0-5.0
Special Teams ESPN team id 2005 ESPN team id 97
Total Plays 9 9
Total EPA -1.53 1.98
  Field Goal EPA 0.18 -2.92
  Punting EPA -0.41 -0.93
  Kickoff Return EPA -1.3 5.83

Air Force [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Haaziq Daniels 9/10, 252 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 2 Scks, 81.6 xQBR 21.00 1.68 20.12 75% 34.0%
Rush attempts
Haaziq Daniels 13 carries, 41 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.15 0.11 1.40 38% 7.0%
Dane Kinamon 3 carries, 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.67 0.40 1.21 67% 1.0%
Brad Roberts 20 carries, 77 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.85 0.03 0.53 45% -6.0%
DeAndre Hughes 7 carries, 39 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 5.57 0.07 0.46 71% -5.0%
Brandon Lewis 3 carries, 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 -0.19 -0.56 33% -1.0%
Emmanuel Michel 4 carries, 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.50 -0.38 -1.52 0% -3.0%
TEAM 3 carries, -4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.33 -0.59 -1.76 0% -1.0%
Pass targets
Brandon Lewis 5 catches (5 targets), 172 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 34.40 3.47 17.36 100% 29.0%
Dane Kinamon 3 catches (3 targets), 40 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.33 1.66 4.99 100% 7.0%
Caleb Rillos 1 catch (1 target), 40 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 40.00 2.45 2.45 100% 5.0%

Louisville [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Malik Cunningham 13/21, 207 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 Scks, 61.8 xQBR 9.00 0.52 11.97 48% 21.0%
TEAM 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 52.7 xQBR 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0% 0.0%
Rush attempts
Jawhar Jordan 6 carries, 37 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.17 0.53 3.19 67% 5.0%
Malik Cunningham 10 carries, 66 yds, 1 TD, 2 Fum (0 lost) 6.60 0.31 3.14 60% 27.0%
Maurice Burkley 1 carry, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.58 -0.58 0% 2.0%
Trevion Cooley 18 carries, 92 yds, 1 TD, 2 Fum (1 lost) 5.11 -0.09 -1.64 50% 4.0%
Pass targets
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce 3 catches (5 targets), 46 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.33 1.53 7.63 60% 3.0%
Tyler Harrell 4 catches (6 targets), 80 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 20.00 0.75 4.51 67% 19.0%
Jawhar Jordan 1 catch (1 target), 24 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 24.00 2.05 2.05 100% 6.0%
Trevion Cooley 2 catches (2 targets), 28 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.00 0.56 1.11 50% 4.0%
Marshon Ford 2 catches (2 targets), 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 0.49 0.99 50% 3.0%
Elijah Downing 1 catch (1 target), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 0.64 0.64 100% 1.0%
Josh Johnson 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 0% 0.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 5:30 ESPN team id 97 (Kickoff at LOU 35) Matthew Dapore kickoff for 65 yds , Jawhar Jordan return for 100 yds for a TD, (Brock Travelstead KICK) - AFA 21, LOU 14 6.78 11.5% 12.9%

Play Type: Kickoff Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 0

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.22 = 6.78

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.78)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.5%

Win Probability (After): 24.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:42 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 10 at AFA 36) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 64 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 21, LOU 7 6.39 79.0% 11.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.61 = 6.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.61)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.0%

Win Probability (After): 90.6%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:21 ESPN team id 97 (4th & 7 at AFA 48) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 14 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST down - AFA 29, LOU 14 4.73 6.3% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 34

Started Drive at: LOU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.17 - -1.56 = 4.73

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.56)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-11.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 29, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.3%

Win Probability (After): 7.9%

Away Score: 28 (29) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 9:12 ESPN team id 97 (3rd & 15 at 50) Malik Cunningham run for 34 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST down - AFA 0, LOU 0 4.55 49.3% 10.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 16

Started Drive at: LOU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.04 - 0.49 = 4.55

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.3%

Win Probability (After): 59.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:04 ESPN team id 97 (4th & Goal at AFA 2) Trevion Cooley run for no gain to the AFA 2 - AFA 28, LOU 14 -4.49 12.1% -5.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 98

Started Drive at: LOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.06 - 3.44 = -4.49

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.56)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.06)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.1%

Win Probability (After): 6.8%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:14 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 39) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 61 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 14, LOU 0 4.11 80.6% 6.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.89 = 4.11

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.89)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.6%

Win Probability (After): 87.3%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:04 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at AFA 34) Tyler Harrell 34 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (Brock Travelstead Kick) - AFA 28, LOU 21 3.86 7.5% 16.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99

Started Drive at: LOU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.14 = 3.86

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-11.86)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.5%

Win Probability (After): 23.6%

Away Score: 29 (28) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:57 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at AFA 22) Malik Cunningham 22 Yd Run (Brock Travelstead Kick) - AFA 31, LOU 28 3.07 8.2% 18.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99

Started Drive at: LOU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.93 = 3.07

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.07)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.2%

Win Probability (After): 27.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:29 ESPN team id 97 (4th & 20 at AFA 26) James Turner 44 yd FG MISSED - AFA 0, LOU 0 -2.92 50.7% -8.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 74

Started Drive at: LOU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.30 - 1.62 = -2.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.30)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.7%

Win Probability (After): 42.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:34 ESPN team id 97 (3rd & 10 at LOU 47) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 13 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 2.84 9.4% 2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 40

Started Drive at: LOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.60 - -0.25 = 2.84

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.25)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.4%

Win Probability (After): 11.9%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 5:30 ESPN team id 97 (1st & Goal at AFA 3) AIR FORCE Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line - AFA 21, LOU 7 -2.82 37.5% -25.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 50

Started Drive at: AFA 0

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 5.29 = -2.82

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.71)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.5%

Win Probability (After): 12.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:57 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at AFA 22) Malik Cunningham 22 Yd Run (Brock Travelstead Kick) - AFA 31, LOU 28 3.07 8.2% 18.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99

Started Drive at: LOU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.93 = 3.07

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.07)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.2%

Win Probability (After): 27.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:04 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at AFA 34) Tyler Harrell 34 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (Brock Travelstead Kick) - AFA 28, LOU 21 3.86 7.5% 16.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99

Started Drive at: LOU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.14 = 3.86

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-11.86)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.5%

Win Probability (After): 23.6%

Away Score: 29 (28) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:30 ESPN team id 97 (Kickoff at LOU 35) Matthew Dapore kickoff for 65 yds , Jawhar Jordan return for 100 yds for a TD, (Brock Travelstead KICK) - AFA 21, LOU 14 6.78 11.5% 12.9%

Play Type: Kickoff Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 0

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.22 = 6.78

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.78)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.5%

Win Probability (After): 24.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:01 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & Goal at LOU 5) Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 7, LOU 0 2.62 64.4% 11.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.38 = 2.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.38)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 7, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.4%

Win Probability (After): 76.0%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:42 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 10 at AFA 36) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 64 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 21, LOU 7 6.39 79.0% 11.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.61 = 6.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.61)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.0%

Win Probability (After): 90.6%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:30 ESPN team id 2005 (Kickoff at AFA 45) Brock Travelstead kickoff for 55 yds for a touchback - AFA 21, LOU 14 -0.34 91.0% -11.5%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 75

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 1.56 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.56)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.0%

Win Probability (After): 79.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:12 ESPN team id 97 (3rd & 15 at 50) Malik Cunningham run for 34 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST down - AFA 0, LOU 0 4.55 49.3% 10.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 16

Started Drive at: LOU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.04 - 0.49 = 4.55

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.3%

Win Probability (After): 59.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:29 ESPN team id 97 (4th & 20 at AFA 26) James Turner 44 yd FG MISSED - AFA 0, LOU 0 -2.92 50.7% -8.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 74

Started Drive at: LOU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.30 - 1.62 = -2.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.30)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.7%

Win Probability (After): 42.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:14 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 39) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 61 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 14, LOU 0 4.11 80.6% 6.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.89 = 4.11

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.89)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.6%

Win Probability (After): 87.3%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 2:01 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & Goal at LOU 5) Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 7, LOU 0 2.62 64.4% 11.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.38 = 2.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.38)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 7, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.4%

Win Probability (After): 76.0%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:14 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 39) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 61 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 14, LOU 0 4.11 80.6% 6.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.89 = 4.11

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.89)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.6%

Win Probability (After): 87.3%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:16 ESPN team id 97 (1st & Goal at AFA 1) Trevion Cooley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brock Travelstead KICK) - AFA 14, LOU 7 0.75 18.2% 6.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: LOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.25 = 0.75

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-7.75)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.2%

Win Probability (After): 24.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:42 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 10 at AFA 36) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 64 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 21, LOU 7 6.39 79.0% 11.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.61 = 6.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.61)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.0%

Win Probability (After): 90.6%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:30 ESPN team id 97 (Kickoff at LOU 35) Matthew Dapore kickoff for 65 yds , Jawhar Jordan return for 100 yds for a TD, (Brock Travelstead KICK) - AFA 21, LOU 14 6.78 11.5% 12.9%

Play Type: Kickoff Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 0

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.22 = 6.78

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.78)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.5%

Win Probability (After): 24.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:54 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & Goal at LOU 1) Haaziq Daniels 1 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick) - AFA 28, LOU 14 1.15 88.5% 2.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.85 = 1.15

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.85)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.5%

Win Probability (After): 90.5%

Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:04 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at AFA 34) Tyler Harrell 34 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (Brock Travelstead Kick) - AFA 28, LOU 21 3.86 7.5% 16.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99

Started Drive at: LOU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.14 = 3.86

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-11.86)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.5%

Win Probability (After): 23.6%

Away Score: 29 (28) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:28 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & 4 at LOU 9) Matthew Dapore 26 Yd Field Goal - AFA 31, LOU 21 0.18 90.7% 6.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: AFA 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.82 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.82)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 28 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:57 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at AFA 22) Malik Cunningham 22 Yd Run (Brock Travelstead Kick) - AFA 31, LOU 28 3.07 8.2% 18.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99

Started Drive at: LOU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.93 = 3.07

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.07)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.2%

Win Probability (After): 27.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 97 (Kickoff at LOU 35) Brice Honaker kickoff for 63 yds , Jawhar Jordan return for 26 yds to the Lvile 28 - AFA 0, LOU 0 -0.97 49.4% -2.5%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 72

Started Drive at: LOU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.11 - 0.86 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.4%

Win Probability (After): 46.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:44 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at LOU 28) Trevion Cooley run for 7 yds to the Lvile 35 - AFA 0, LOU 0 0.47 50.3% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 65

Started Drive at: LOU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.86 - 1.39 = 0.47

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.39)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.3%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:09 ESPN team id 97 (2nd & 3 at LOU 35) Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST down - AFA 0, LOU 0 0.23 51.9% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 60

Started Drive at: LOU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.21 - 1.98 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.9%

Win Probability (After): 53.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:38 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at LOU 40) Malik Cunningham pass incomplete - AFA 0, LOU 0 -0.70 52.5% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: LOU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.51 - 2.21 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.5%

Win Probability (After): 50.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:24 ESPN team id 97 (2nd & 10 at LOU 40) Trevion Cooley run for 7 yds to the Lvile 47 - AFA 0, LOU 0 0.10 49.8% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 53

Started Drive at: LOU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.62 - 1.52 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.52)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.8%

Win Probability (After): 49.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:42 ESPN team id 97 (3rd & 3 at LOU 47) Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 41 Malik Cunningham fumbled, recovered by Lvile - AFA 0, LOU 0 -2.47 48.0% -4.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 59

Started Drive at: LOU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.87 - 1.60 = -2.47

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.60)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.0%

Win Probability (After): 43.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:34 ESPN team id 97 (4th & 9 at LOU 41) Mark Vassett punt for 59 yds for a touchback - AFA 0, LOU 0 0.10 41.7% 2.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 80

Started Drive at: LOU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.80 - -0.90 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.90)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.80)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.7%

Win Probability (After): 43.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 12:20 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 20) Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 22 - AFA 0, LOU 0 -0.61 56.1% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 78

Started Drive at: AFA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.18 - 0.78 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.1%

Win Probability (After): 54.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:47 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 8 at AFA 22) Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 25 - AFA 0, LOU 0 -0.37 54.8% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 75

Started Drive at: AFA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.20 - 0.17 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.8%

Win Probability (After): 53.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:40 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 5 at AFA 25) Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the AFA 25 - AFA 0, LOU 0 -1.71 53.5% -3.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: AFA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.93 - -0.22 = -1.71

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.22)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.5%

Win Probability (After): 49.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:37 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & 5 at AFA 25) Carson Bay punt for 46 yds , Josh Johnson returns for 4 yds to the Lvile 33 - AFA 0, LOU 0 0.01 49.2% 1.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67

Started Drive at: AFA 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.78 - -1.79 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.79)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.78)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.2%

Win Probability (After): 50.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:01 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at LOU 33) Trevion Cooley run for 22 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down - AFA 0, LOU 0 1.38 50.0% 3.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 45

Started Drive at: LOU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.24 - 1.86 = 1.38

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.0%

Win Probability (After): 53.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:42 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at AFA 45) Trevion Cooley run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard line Trevion Cooley fumbled, recovered by Lvile - AFA 0, LOU 0 -1.66 53.2% -4.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 50

Started Drive at: LOU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 3.26 = -1.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.26)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.2%

Win Probability (After): 48.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:25 ESPN team id 97 (2nd & 15 at 50) Malik Cunningham pass incomplete - AFA 0, LOU 0 -0.92 51.3% -5.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: LOU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.67 - 1.58 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.58)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.3%

Win Probability (After): 45.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:12 ESPN team id 97 (3rd & 15 at 50) Malik Cunningham run for 34 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST down - AFA 0, LOU 0 4.55 49.3% 10.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 16

Started Drive at: LOU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.04 - 0.49 = 4.55

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.3%

Win Probability (After): 59.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:20 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at AFA 16) Maurice Burkley run for no gain to the AFA 16 - AFA 0, LOU 0 -0.58 57.1% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: LOU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.45 - 5.04 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.04)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.1%

Win Probability (After): 59.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:04 ESPN team id 97 (2nd & 10 at AFA 16) Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce - AFA 0, LOU 0 -0.74 57.0% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: LOU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.71 - 4.44 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.44)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.0%

Win Probability (After): 54.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:59 ESPN team id 97 (3rd & 10 at AFA 16) LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 26 - AFA 0, LOU 0 -1.25 55.5% -2.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 26

Started Drive at: LOU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.45 - 3.69 = -1.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.69)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.5%

Win Probability (After): 52.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:34 ESPN team id 97 (3rd & 20 at AFA 26) Malik Cunningham pass incomplete - AFA 0, LOU 0 -0.76 53.5% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: LOU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.66 - 2.42 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.42)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.5%

Win Probability (After): 50.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:29 ESPN team id 97 (4th & 20 at AFA 26) James Turner 44 yd FG MISSED - AFA 0, LOU 0 -2.92 50.7% -8.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 74

Started Drive at: LOU 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.30 - 1.62 = -2.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.62)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.30)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.7%

Win Probability (After): 42.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 7:00 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 26) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 40 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST down - AFA 0, LOU 0 2.45 57.6% 5.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 34

Started Drive at: AFA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.82 - 1.37 = 2.45

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.6%

Win Probability (After): 62.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:24 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at LOU 34) Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the Lvile 32 - AFA 0, LOU 0 -0.39 62.7% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 32

Started Drive at: AFA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.48 - 3.88 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.88)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.7%

Win Probability (After): 62.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:01 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 8 at LOU 32) Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the Lvile 26 - AFA 0, LOU 0 0.29 62.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 26

Started Drive at: AFA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.78 - 3.49 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.2%

Win Probability (After): 62.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:20 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 2 at LOU 26) Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST down - AFA 0, LOU 0 0.74 62.6% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 23

Started Drive at: AFA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - 3.78 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.6%

Win Probability (After): 64.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:47 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at LOU 23) Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Lvile 20 - AFA 0, LOU 0 -0.22 64.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 20

Started Drive at: AFA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 4.52 = -0.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.52)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.6%

Win Probability (After): 64.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:11 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 7 at LOU 20) DeAndre Hughes run for 3 yds to the Lvile 17 - AFA 0, LOU 0 -0.06 64.9% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 17

Started Drive at: AFA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.24 - 4.31 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.31)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.9%

Win Probability (After): 63.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:41 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 4 at LOU 17) Dane Kinamon run for 9 yds to the Lvile 8 for a 1ST down - AFA 0, LOU 0 1.25 64.3% 2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 8

Started Drive at: AFA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.50 - 4.24 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.24)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.3%

Win Probability (After): 66.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:15 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & Goal at LOU 8) Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the Lvile 7 - AFA 0, LOU 0 -0.49 66.7% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 7

Started Drive at: AFA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.00 - 5.50 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.50)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.7%

Win Probability (After): 66.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:40 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & Goal at LOU 7) Brandon Lewis run for 2 yds to the Lvile 5 - AFA 0, LOU 0 -0.63 66.3% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 5

Started Drive at: AFA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.38 - 5.01 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 0, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.3%

Win Probability (After): 64.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:01 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & Goal at LOU 5) Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 7, LOU 0 2.62 64.4% 11.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.38 = 2.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.38)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 7, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.4%

Win Probability (After): 76.0%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:01 ESPN team id 97 (Kickoff at LOU 35) Brice Honaker kickoff for 64 yds for a 1ST down , Jawhar Jordan return for 18 yds to the LOUISVILLE 47 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST down - AFA 7, LOU 0 -0.02 26.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 66

Started Drive at: LOU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.03 - 0.05 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-15.01)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 7, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.6%

Win Probability (After): 26.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:49 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at LOU 34) Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce - AFA 7, LOU 0 -0.63 26.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: LOU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 1.01 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.99)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 7, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.6%

Win Probability (After): 26.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:38 ESPN team id 97 (2nd & 10 at LOU 34) Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the Lvile 36 - AFA 7, LOU 0 -0.76 26.0% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 64

Started Drive at: LOU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.34 - 0.42 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.58)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 7, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.0%

Win Probability (After): 25.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:41 ESPN team id 97 (3rd & 8 at LOU 36) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 3 yds to the Lvile 39 - AFA 7, LOU 0 -1.24 25.1% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 61

Started Drive at: LOU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.47 - -0.22 = -1.24

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.22)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 7, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.1%

Win Probability (After): 24.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:11 ESPN team id 97 (4th & 5 at LOU 39) Mark Vassett punt for 34 yds, downed at the AFA 27 - AFA 7, LOU 0 -1.03 24.0% -2.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 73

Started Drive at: LOU 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.46 - -1.43 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.43)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.46)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: AFA 7, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.0%

Win Probability (After): 21.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:02 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 27) DeAndre Hughes run for 8 yds to the AFA 35 - AFA 7, LOU 0 0.56 78.0% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 65

Started Drive at: AFA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.44 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.44)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 7, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.0%

Win Probability (After): 77.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:55 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 2 at AFA 35) Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down - AFA 7, LOU 0 -0.01 78.0% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 61

Started Drive at: AFA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 3.00 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.00)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 7, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.0%

Win Probability (After): 79.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:14 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 39) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 61 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 14, LOU 0 4.11 80.6% 6.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.89 = 4.11

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.89)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.6%

Win Probability (After): 87.3%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:14 ESPN team id 97 (Kickoff at LOU 35) Brice Honaker kickoff for 56 yds for a 1ST down - AFA 14, LOU 0 0.98 11.6% 0.7%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: LOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - -0.46 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.46)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.6%

Win Probability (After): 12.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:50 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at LOU 35) Trevion Cooley run for 11 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST down - AFA 14, LOU 0 0.75 12.0% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 54

Started Drive at: LOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.25 - 0.50 = 0.75

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.50)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.0%

Win Probability (After): 12.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:17 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at LOU 46) Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the Lvile 49 - AFA 14, LOU 0 -0.40 13.2% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 51

Started Drive at: LOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.85 - 1.26 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.74)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.2%

Win Probability (After): 12.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:36 ESPN team id 97 (2nd & 7 at LOU 49) Malik Cunningham run for 7 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down - AFA 14, LOU 0 1.21 12.0% 3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 44

Started Drive at: LOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 0.90 = 1.21

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.10)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.0%

Win Probability (After): 15.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:20 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at AFA 44) Malik Cunningham sacked by Jordan Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 45 - AFA 14, LOU 0 -1.28 14.1% -2.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 45

Started Drive at: LOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 2.14 = -1.28

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.86)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.1%

Win Probability (After): 11.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:52 ESPN team id 97 (2nd & 11 at AFA 45) Jawhar Jordan run for 10 yds to the AFA 35 - AFA 14, LOU 0 1.67 11.4% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 35

Started Drive at: LOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 0.90 = 1.67

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.10)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.4%

Win Probability (After): 14.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:05 ESPN team id 97 (3rd & 1 at AFA 35) Jawhar Jordan run for 8 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST down - AFA 14, LOU 0 0.99 13.9% 1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 27

Started Drive at: LOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 2.62 = 0.99

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.38)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.9%

Win Probability (After): 15.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:32 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at AFA 27) Jawhar Jordan run for 10 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST down - AFA 14, LOU 0 0.94 15.7% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 17

Started Drive at: LOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.56 - 3.62 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.38)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.7%

Win Probability (After): 16.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:04 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at AFA 17) Malik Cunningham run for 7 yds to the AFA 10 - AFA 14, LOU 0 0.26 16.9% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 10

Started Drive at: LOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.84 - 4.57 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.43)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.9%

Win Probability (After): 17.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:45 ESPN team id 97 (2nd & 3 at AFA 10) Trevion Cooley run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 13 - AFA 14, LOU 0 -1.35 17.3% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 13

Started Drive at: LOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 4.82 = -1.35

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.18)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.3%

Win Probability (After): 15.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:24 ESPN team id 97 (3rd & 6 at AFA 13) Trevion Cooley run for 12 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST down - AFA 14, LOU 0 2.77 14.9% 3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 1

Started Drive at: LOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.24 - 3.47 = 2.77

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.53)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-7.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.9%

Win Probability (After): 18.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:16 ESPN team id 97 (1st & Goal at AFA 1) Trevion Cooley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brock Travelstead KICK) - AFA 14, LOU 7 0.75 18.2% 6.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: LOU 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.25 = 0.75

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-7.75)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.2%

Win Probability (After): 24.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:16 ESPN team id 2005 (Kickoff at AFA 35) Brock Travelstead kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - AFA 14, LOU 7 0.00 79.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.80 - 1.80 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.80)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.1%

Win Probability (After): 79.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:00 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 25) Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 28 - AFA 14, LOU 7 -0.31 79.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 72

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 1.66 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.66)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.1%

Win Probability (After): 79.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:32 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 7 at AFA 28) Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 34 - AFA 14, LOU 7 0.43 78.9% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 66

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.58 - 1.16 = 0.43

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.16)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.9%

Win Probability (After): 78.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:40 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 1 at AFA 34) Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down - AFA 14, LOU 7 0.81 77.9% 2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 64

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 1.46 = 0.81

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.46)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.9%

Win Probability (After): 80.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:05 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 36) Brandon Lewis run for 2 yds to the AFA 38 - AFA 14, LOU 7 -0.55 80.6% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 62

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.79 - 2.34 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.6%

Win Probability (After): 79.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:44 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 8 at AFA 38) AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 33 - AFA 14, LOU 7 -0.75 79.7% -1.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 67

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.19 - 1.94 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.94)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.7%

Win Probability (After): 78.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:02 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 13 at AFA 33) DeAndre Hughes run for 3 yds to the AFA 36 - AFA 14, LOU 7 0.05 78.9% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 64

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 0.96 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.96)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 14, LOU 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.9%

Win Probability (After): 78.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:42 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 10 at AFA 36) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 64 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 21, LOU 7 6.39 79.0% 11.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.61 = 6.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.61)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.0%

Win Probability (After): 90.6%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:30 ESPN team id 97 (Kickoff at LOU 35) Matthew Dapore kickoff for 65 yds , Jawhar Jordan return for 100 yds for a TD, (Brock Travelstead KICK) - AFA 21, LOU 14 6.78 11.5% 12.9%

Play Type: Kickoff Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 0

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.22 = 6.78

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.78)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.5%

Win Probability (After): 24.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:30 ESPN team id 97 (1st & Goal at AFA 3) AIR FORCE Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line - AFA 21, LOU 7 -2.82 37.5% -25.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 50

Started Drive at: AFA 0

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 5.29 = -2.82

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.71)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.5%

Win Probability (After): 12.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:30 ESPN team id 97 (1st & Goal at 50) LOUISVILLE Penalty, Kickoff Out of Bounds (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 45 - AFA 21, LOU 7 -0.22 12.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 55

Started Drive at: AFA 0

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.26 - 2.47 = -0.22

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.53)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.1%

Win Probability (After): 12.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:30 ESPN team id 2005 (Kickoff at AFA 45) Brock Travelstead kickoff for 55 yds for a touchback - AFA 21, LOU 14 -0.34 91.0% -11.5%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 75

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 1.56 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.56)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.0%

Win Probability (After): 79.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:02 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 25) Dane Kinamon run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 20 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the AFA 35 for a 1ST down - AFA 21, LOU 14 0.73 79.6% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 1.27 = 0.73

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.21)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.6%

Win Probability (After): 80.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:54 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 35) Brandon Lewis run for 14 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST down - AFA 21, LOU 14 0.62 80.3% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 51

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 1.97 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.97)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.3%

Win Probability (After): 81.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:59 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 49) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 13 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST down - AFA 21, LOU 14 1.17 81.9% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 38

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.42 - 2.25 = 1.17

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.25)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.9%

Win Probability (After): 82.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:30 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at LOU 38) Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Lvile 34 - AFA 21, LOU 14 0.19 82.8% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 34

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 2.93 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.93)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.8%

Win Probability (After): 82.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:00 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 6 at LOU 34) Brad Roberts run for no gain to the Lvile 34 - AFA 21, LOU 14 -0.48 82.7% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 2.87 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.87)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.7%

Win Probability (After): 81.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:40 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 6 at LOU 34) Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete - AFA 21, LOU 14 -1.08 81.1% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.06 - 2.14 = -1.08

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.14)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.1%

Win Probability (After): 79.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:00 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & 6 at LOU 34) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 9 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST down - AFA 21, LOU 14 2.53 79.5% 4.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 25

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.58 - 1.06 = 2.53

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.06)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.5%

Win Probability (After): 84.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:28 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at LOU 25) Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Lvile 20 - AFA 21, LOU 14 0.24 84.5% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 20

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.62 - 3.38 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.38)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.5%

Win Probability (After): 85.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:07 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 5 at LOU 20) Timeout LOUISVILLE, clock 01:07 - AFA 21, LOU 14 0.00 86.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.62 - 3.62 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.62)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.2%

Win Probability (After): 86.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:00 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 5 at LOU 20) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 12 yds to the Lvile 8 for a 1ST down - AFA 21, LOU 14 1.36 87.1% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 8

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.88 - 3.52 = 1.36

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.52)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.1%

Win Probability (After): 88.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:59 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & Goal at LOU 8) DeAndre Hughes run for 7 yds to the Lvile 1 - AFA 21, LOU 14 1.01 88.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 1

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.85 - 4.84 = 1.01

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.84)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 21, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.3%

Win Probability (After): 88.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:54 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & Goal at LOU 1) Haaziq Daniels 1 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick) - AFA 28, LOU 14 1.15 88.5% 2.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.85 = 1.15

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.85)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.5%

Win Probability (After): 90.5%

Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:54 ESPN team id 97 (Kickoff at LOU 35) Matthew Dapore kickoff for 56 yds , Maurice Burkley return for 4 yds to the Lvile 13 - AFA 28, LOU 14 -0.42 10.3% -0.4%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 87

Started Drive at: LOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 0.39 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.61)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.3%

Win Probability (After): 9.9%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:45 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at LOU 13) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 31 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 0.99 9.9% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 56

Started Drive at: LOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 0.08 = 0.99

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.92)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.9%

Win Probability (After): 11.5%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:31 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at LOU 44) Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Josh Johnson - AFA 28, LOU 14 -0.02 11.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56

Started Drive at: LOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - 0.85 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.15)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.2%

Win Probability (After): 11.1%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:24 ESPN team id 97 (2nd & 10 at LOU 44) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Elijah Downing for 9 yds to the AFA 47 - AFA 28, LOU 14 0.64 10.6% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 47

Started Drive at: LOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.22 - 0.59 = 0.64

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.41)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.6%

Win Probability (After): 11.5%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:24 ESPN team id 97 (3rd & 1 at AFA 47) Timeout LOUISVILLE, clock 00:24 - AFA 28, LOU 14 0.00 11.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: LOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.22 - 1.22 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.78)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.4%

Win Probability (After): 11.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:18 ESPN team id 97 (3rd & 1 at AFA 47) Trevion Cooley run for no gain to the AFA 47 - AFA 28, LOU 14 -0.36 10.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: LOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - 0.89 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.11)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.3%

Win Probability (After): 9.6%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:18 ESPN team id 97 (4th & 1 at AFA 47) Timeout LOUISVILLE, clock 00:18 - AFA 28, LOU 14 0.00 9.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: LOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - 0.53 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.47)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.6%

Win Probability (After): 9.6%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:13 ESPN team id 97 (4th & 1 at AFA 47) Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 0.67 9.9% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 44

Started Drive at: LOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 0.35 = 0.67

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.65)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.9%

Win Probability (After): 11.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:13 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at AFA 44) TEAM pass incomplete - AFA 28, LOU 14 -0.01 11.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: LOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 0.84 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.16)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.2%

Win Probability (After): 11.2%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:13 ESPN team id 97 (2nd & 10 at AFA 44) Timeout AIR FORCE, clock 00:13 - AFA 28, LOU 14 0.00 11.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: LOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 0.83 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.17)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.2%

Win Probability (After): 11.2%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:07 ESPN team id 97 (2nd & 10 at AFA 44) Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler Harrell - AFA 28, LOU 14 -0.04 11.6% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: LOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.69 - 0.73 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.27)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.6%

Win Probability (After): 11.0%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:07 ESPN team id 97 (3rd & 10 at AFA 44) Timeout AIR FORCE, clock 00:07 - AFA 28, LOU 14 0.00 11.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: LOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.69 - 0.69 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.31)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.0%

Win Probability (After): 11.0%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:01 ESPN team id 97 (3rd & 10 at AFA 44) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Trevion Cooley for 18 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 -0.46 11.3% 3.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 26

Started Drive at: LOU 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - 0.46 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.54)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.3%

Win Probability (After): 14.5%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2005 (Kickoff at AFA 35) Brock Travelstead kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - AFA 28, LOU 14 0.00 91.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.56 - 2.56 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.56)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.4%

Win Probability (After): 91.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:52 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 25) Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 25 - AFA 28, LOU 14 -0.67 91.8% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - 2.69 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.69)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.8%

Win Probability (After): 90.0%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:17 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 10 at AFA 25) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 27 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 2.29 90.9% 1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 48

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.26 - 1.98 = 2.29

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.98)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.9%

Win Probability (After): 92.8%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:25 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at LOU 48) DeAndre Hughes run for 13 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 0.54 92.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 35

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.48 - 3.94 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.94)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.8%

Win Probability (After): 93.0%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:45 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at LOU 35) Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the Lvile 32 - AFA 28, LOU 14 -0.27 93.2% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 32

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.19 - 4.46 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.46)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.2%

Win Probability (After): 92.8%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:00 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 7 at LOU 32) Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 33 - AFA 28, LOU 14 -1.04 93.2% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 33

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.16 - 4.20 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.20)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.2%

Win Probability (After): 92.5%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:25 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 8 at LOU 33) Haaziq Daniels sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 39 - AFA 28, LOU 14 -2.13 92.8% -1.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 39

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - 3.12 = -2.13

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.12)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.8%

Win Probability (After): 91.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:53 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & 14 at LOU 39) Carson Bay punt for 39 yds for a touchback - AFA 28, LOU 14 0.11 91.6% -1.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 80

Started Drive at: AFA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - 0.68 = 0.11

Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.68)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.79)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.2%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:25 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at LOU 20) Trevion Cooley run for 4 yds to the Lvile 24 - AFA 28, LOU 14 -0.19 9.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 76

Started Drive at: LOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.89 - -0.70 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.70)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.4%

Win Probability (After): 9.5%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:01 ESPN team id 97 (2nd & 6 at LOU 24) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Trevion Cooley for 10 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 1.58 9.3% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 66

Started Drive at: LOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.51 - -1.07 = 1.58

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.07)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.3%

Win Probability (After): 9.9%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:38 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at LOU 34) Trevion Cooley run for 13 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 0.60 10.5% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 53

Started Drive at: LOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.27 - 0.67 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.33)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.5%

Win Probability (After): 11.1%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:36 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at LOU 47) Trevion Cooley run for 5 yds to the AFA 48 - AFA 28, LOU 14 0.37 10.8% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 48

Started Drive at: LOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.70 - 1.34 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.66)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.8%

Win Probability (After): 11.7%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:02 ESPN team id 97 (2nd & 5 at AFA 48) Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 47 - AFA 28, LOU 14 -1.76 10.8% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 53

Started Drive at: LOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.24 - 1.52 = -1.76

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.48)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.8%

Win Probability (After): 9.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:34 ESPN team id 97 (3rd & 10 at LOU 47) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 13 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 2.84 9.4% 2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 40

Started Drive at: LOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.60 - -0.25 = 2.84

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.25)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.4%

Win Probability (After): 11.9%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:59 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at AFA 40) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 19 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 1.43 11.6% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 21

Started Drive at: LOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.04 - 2.61 = 1.43

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.39)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.6%

Win Probability (After): 13.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:40 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at AFA 21) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 9 yds to the AFA 12 - AFA 28, LOU 14 0.92 13.1% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 12

Started Drive at: LOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.98 - 4.05 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.95)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.1%

Win Probability (After): 14.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:15 ESPN team id 97 (2nd & 1 at AFA 12) Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 16 Malik Cunningham fumbled, recovered by Lvile - AFA 28, LOU 14 -1.38 14.5% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 16

Started Drive at: LOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.58 - 4.96 = -1.38

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.04)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.5%

Win Probability (After): 12.6%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:20 ESPN team id 97 (3rd & 5 at AFA 16) Jawhar Jordan run for 6 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 1.01 13.4% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 10

Started Drive at: LOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.65 - 3.63 = 1.01

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.37)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.4%

Win Probability (After): 13.8%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:00 ESPN team id 97 (1st & Goal at AFA 10) Malik Cunningham sacked by TD Blackmon for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 12 - AFA 28, LOU 14 -1.27 14.0% -1.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 12

Started Drive at: LOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.49 - 4.76 = -1.27

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.24)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.0%

Win Probability (After): 12.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:50 ESPN team id 97 (2nd & Goal at AFA 12) Trevion Cooley run for 6 yds to the AFA 6 - AFA 28, LOU 14 -0.13 13.8% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 6

Started Drive at: LOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.81 - 3.94 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.06)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.8%

Win Probability (After): 13.1%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:30 ESPN team id 97 (3rd & Goal at AFA 6) Trevion Cooley run for 4 yds to the AFA 2 - AFA 28, LOU 14 -0.38 12.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 2

Started Drive at: LOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 3.82 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.18)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.3%

Win Probability (After): 12.3%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:04 ESPN team id 97 (4th & Goal at AFA 2) Trevion Cooley run for no gain to the AFA 2 - AFA 28, LOU 14 -4.49 12.1% -5.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 98

Started Drive at: LOU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.06 - 3.44 = -4.49

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.56)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.06)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.1%

Win Probability (After): 6.8%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:48 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 2) Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 4 - AFA 28, LOU 14 -0.38 93.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 96

Started Drive at: AFA 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 1.01 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.01)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.3%

Win Probability (After): 93.0%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:11 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 8 at AFA 4) Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 9 - AFA 28, LOU 14 0.03 93.0% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 91

Started Drive at: AFA 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.71 - 0.69 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.69)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.0%

Win Probability (After): 92.8%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:08 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 3 at AFA 9) DeAndre Hughes run for 1 yd to the AFA 10 DeAndre Hughes fumbled, recovered by AFA - AFA 28, LOU 14 -1.70 94.2% -3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 90

Started Drive at: AFA 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.94 - 0.76 = -1.70

Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.76)

Score Difference (End): 14 (13.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.2%

Win Probability (After): 91.0%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:50 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & 2 at AFA 10) Carson Bay punt for 41 yds, downed at the Lvile 49 - AFA 28, LOU 14 -0.54 91.6% -0.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 51

Started Drive at: AFA 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.47 - -0.93 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 14 (13.07)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.53)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.6%

Win Probability (After): 91.1%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:30 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at LOU 49) Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the AFA 47 - AFA 28, LOU 14 -0.06 8.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 47

Started Drive at: LOU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 1.55 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.45)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.8%

Win Probability (After): 8.9%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:10 ESPN team id 97 (2nd & 6 at AFA 47) Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 48 - AFA 28, LOU 14 -1.35 8.7% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 48

Started Drive at: LOU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - 1.54 = -1.35

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.46)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.7%

Win Probability (After): 7.5%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:50 ESPN team id 97 (3rd & 7 at AFA 48) Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler Harrell - AFA 28, LOU 14 -1.80 7.2% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48

Started Drive at: LOU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.58 - 0.21 = -1.80

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.79)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.2%

Win Probability (After): 6.2%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:21 ESPN team id 97 (4th & 7 at AFA 48) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 14 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST down - AFA 29, LOU 14 4.73 6.3% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 34

Started Drive at: LOU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.17 - -1.56 = 4.73

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.56)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-11.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 29, LOU 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.3%

Win Probability (After): 7.9%

Away Score: 28 (29) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 0:04 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at AFA 34) Tyler Harrell 34 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (Brock Travelstead Kick) - AFA 28, LOU 21 3.86 7.5% 16.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99

Started Drive at: LOU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.14 = 3.86

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-11.86)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.5%

Win Probability (After): 23.6%

Away Score: 29 (28) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:04 ESPN team id 2005 (Kickoff at AFA 35) Brock Travelstead kickoff for 40 yds fair catch by Brandon Lewis at the AFA 1 - AFA 28, LOU 21 -1.44 81.5% -2.9%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: AFA 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.77 - 2.21 = -1.44

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.21)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.5%

Win Probability (After): 78.6%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:01 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 25) Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 26 - AFA 28, LOU 21 -0.49 81.5% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: AFA 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.73 - 2.21 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.21)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.5%

Win Probability (After): 80.2%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:55 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 9 at AFA 26) Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 29 - AFA 28, LOU 21 -0.62 79.1% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 71

Started Drive at: AFA 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 1.72 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.72)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.1%

Win Probability (After): 77.1%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:13 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 6 at AFA 29) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 11 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 21 2.05 78.4% 3.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 60

Started Drive at: AFA 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.10 - 1.05 = 2.05

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.05)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.4%

Win Probability (After): 81.9%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:30 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at AFA 40) Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 42 - AFA 28, LOU 21 -0.54 83.0% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 58

Started Drive at: AFA 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - 3.03 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.03)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.0%

Win Probability (After): 81.9%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:44 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 8 at AFA 42) Haaziq Daniels sacked by Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 36 - AFA 28, LOU 21 -1.47 82.9% -3.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 64

Started Drive at: AFA 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.98 - 2.45 = -1.47

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.45)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.8%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:22 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 14 at AFA 36) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 15 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 21 2.46 80.2% 5.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 49

Started Drive at: AFA 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.51 - 1.05 = 2.46

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.05)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.2%

Win Probability (After): 85.2%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:40 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at LOU 49) Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the Lvile 47 - AFA 28, LOU 21 -0.43 85.6% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 47

Started Drive at: AFA 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.09 - 3.52 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.52)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.6%

Win Probability (After): 84.7%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:19 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 8 at LOU 47) Haaziq Daniels run for 10 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 21 0.97 85.4% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 37

Started Drive at: AFA 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.03 - 3.06 = 0.97

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.06)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.4%

Win Probability (After): 86.1%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:45 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at LOU 37) DeAndre Hughes run for 4 yds to the Lvile 33 - AFA 28, LOU 21 0.06 85.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 33

Started Drive at: AFA 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.09 - 4.03 = 0.06

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.03)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.8%

Win Probability (After): 85.9%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:00 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 6 at LOU 33) Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the Lvile 29 - AFA 28, LOU 21 -0.09 87.1% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 29

Started Drive at: AFA 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.00 - 4.09 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.09)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.1%

Win Probability (After): 85.3%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:30 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 2 at LOU 29) Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 21 0.71 86.7% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 25

Started Drive at: AFA 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.69 - 3.98 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.98)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.7%

Win Probability (After): 87.7%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:25 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at LOU 25) Haaziq Daniels run for 8 yds to the Lvile 17 - AFA 28, LOU 21 0.85 89.4% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 17

Started Drive at: AFA 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.24 - 4.39 = 0.85

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.39)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.4%

Win Probability (After): 90.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:00 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 2 at LOU 17) Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 21 -0.10 91.3% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 15

Started Drive at: AFA 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.97 - 5.07 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.07)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.3%

Win Probability (After): 90.6%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:20 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at LOU 15) Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the Lvile 14 - AFA 28, LOU 21 -0.50 92.0% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 14

Started Drive at: AFA 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 5.00 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.00)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.0%

Win Probability (After): 91.2%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:40 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 9 at LOU 14) Dane Kinamon run for 1 yd to the Lvile 13 - AFA 28, LOU 21 -0.78 91.7% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 13

Started Drive at: AFA 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.75 - 4.53 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.53)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.7%

Win Probability (After): 90.1%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:50 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 8 at LOU 13) Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the Lvile 9 - AFA 28, LOU 21 -0.86 91.4% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 9

Started Drive at: AFA 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.86 - 3.72 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.72)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 28, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.4%

Win Probability (After): 89.5%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:28 ESPN team id 2005 (4th & 4 at LOU 9) Matthew Dapore 26 Yd Field Goal - AFA 31, LOU 21 0.18 90.7% 6.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: AFA 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.82 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.82)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 28 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:24 ESPN team id 97 (Kickoff at LOU 35) Matthew Dapore kickoff for 46 yds , Jawhar Jordan return for 11 yds to the Lvile 30 - AFA 31, LOU 21 -0.54 7.4% -0.7%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 70

Started Drive at: LOU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 0.66 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.34)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.4%

Win Probability (After): 6.6%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:07 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at LOU 30) Trevion Cooley run for 2 yds to the Lvile 32 - AFA 31, LOU 21 -0.54 8.2% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 68

Started Drive at: LOU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 1.09 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.91)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.2%

Win Probability (After): 7.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:47 ESPN team id 97 (2nd & 8 at LOU 32) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 6 yds to the Lvile 38 - AFA 31, LOU 21 0.56 6.3% 1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 62

Started Drive at: LOU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 0.55 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.45)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.3%

Win Probability (After): 7.8%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:33 ESPN team id 97 (3rd & 2 at LOU 38) LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 33 - AFA 31, LOU 21 -1.07 6.6% -1.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 67

Started Drive at: LOU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 1.09 = -1.07

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.91)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.6%

Win Probability (After): 5.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:07 ESPN team id 97 (3rd & 7 at LOU 33) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - AFA 31, LOU 21 2.23 4.9% 4.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 50

Started Drive at: LOU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.28 - 0.05 = 2.23

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.95)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.9%

Win Probability (After): 9.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:37 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at 50) Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds to the AFA 46 - AFA 31, LOU 21 0.18 7.1% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 46

Started Drive at: LOU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 2.11 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.89)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.1%

Win Probability (After): 8.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:11 ESPN team id 97 (2nd & 6 at AFA 46) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 24 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST down - AFA 31, LOU 21 2.05 5.8% 5.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 22

Started Drive at: LOU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.07 - 2.02 = 2.05

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.98)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.8%

Win Probability (After): 11.4%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:57 ESPN team id 97 (1st & 10 at AFA 22) Malik Cunningham 22 Yd Run (Brock Travelstead Kick) - AFA 31, LOU 28 3.07 8.2% 18.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99

Started Drive at: LOU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.93 = 3.07

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.07)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.2%

Win Probability (After): 27.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:57 ESPN team id 2005 (Kickoff at AFA 35) Ryan Chalifoux on-side kick recovered by AIR FORCE at the Lvile 47 , Dane Kinamon return for no gain to the Lvile 47 - AFA 31, LOU 28 0.48 84.5% 3.5%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 47

Started Drive at: LOU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.67 - 1.18 = 0.48

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.18)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.5%

Win Probability (After): 88.0%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:28 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at LOU 47) Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Lvile 44 - AFA 31, LOU 28 -0.13 88.7% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 44

Started Drive at: LOU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 2.16 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.16)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.7%

Win Probability (After): 88.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:07 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 7 at LOU 44) Brad Roberts run for 10 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST down - AFA 31, LOU 28 1.17 87.6% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 34

Started Drive at: LOU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.98 - 1.81 = 1.17

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.81)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.4%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:03 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at LOU 34) Timeout LOUISVILLE, clock 02:03 - AFA 31, LOU 28 0.00 92.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: LOU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.98 - 2.98 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.98)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.6%

Win Probability (After): 92.6%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:37 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at LOU 34) Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the Lvile 25 - AFA 31, LOU 28 1.09 94.3% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 25

Started Drive at: LOU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.77 - 2.69 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.69)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.3%

Win Probability (After): 92.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:37 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 1 at LOU 25) Timeout LOUISVILLE, clock 01:37 - AFA 31, LOU 28 0.00 95.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: LOU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.77 - 3.77 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.77)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.2%

Win Probability (After): 95.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:35 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 1 at LOU 25) Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST down - AFA 31, LOU 28 -0.16 95.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 23

Started Drive at: LOU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.46 - 3.62 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.62)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.3%

Win Probability (After): 95.0%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:35 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at LOU 23) Timeout LOUISVILLE, clock 01:35 - AFA 31, LOU 28 0.00 95.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: LOU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.46 - 3.46 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.46)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.0%

Win Probability (After): 95.0%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 1:17 ESPN team id 2005 (1st & 10 at LOU 23) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 24 - AFA 31, LOU 28 -0.97 97.5% -2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 24

Started Drive at: LOU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.44 - 3.41 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.41)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.5%

Win Probability (After): 94.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 0:42 ESPN team id 2005 (2nd & 11 at LOU 24) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 26 - AFA 31, LOU 28 -0.66 98.2% -3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 26

Started Drive at: LOU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.88 - 2.54 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.54)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.2%

Win Probability (After): 95.0%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0

Q4 0:03 ESPN team id 2005 (3rd & 13 at LOU 26) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 27 - AFA 31, LOU 28 -0.14 95.3% 4.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 27

Started Drive at: LOU 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - 1.60 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.60)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: AFA 31, LOU 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.3%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0