Win Probability
Game Excitement Index: 4.89 | Odds: AFA -1, O/U 55.0 | Download Chart
Expected Points
Team Stats [show/hide]
| Overall |
|
|
|---|---|---|
| EPA/Play | 0.31 89th %ile | 0.27 86th %ile |
| Success Rate | 48% 77th %ile | 51% 87th %ile |
| Yards/Play | 6.72 69th %ile | 6.76 71st %ile |
| EPA/Dropback | 1.68 99th %ile | 0.50 87th %ile |
| EPA/Rush | 0.00 45th %ile | 0.12 65th %ile |
| Yards/Dropback | 21.00 99th %ile | 8.62 80th %ile |
| Explosive Play Rate | 9% 56th %ile | 10% 67th %ile |
| 3rd Down Success Rate | 57% 84th %ile | 35% 30th %ile |
| Red Zone Success Rate | 43% 57th %ile | 29% 25th %ile |
| Def Run Stuff Rate | 26% 30th %ile | 15% 2nd %ile |
| Havoc Rate | 9% 43rd %ile | 14% 69th %ile |
| Expected Points | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 74 | 68 |
| Total EPA | 17.59 | 12.71 |
| Offensive EPA | 19.86 | 16.07 |
| Special Teams EPA | -1.53 | 1.99 |
| Penalty EPA | -0.07 | -5.37 |
| Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA | -0.67 | 0.02 |
| Production | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 65 | 59 |
| Yards | 437 | 399 |
| Yards/Play | 6.72 | 6.76 |
| EPA | 19.86 | 16.07 |
| EPA/Play | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| Passes | 12 (18%) | 24 (41%) |
| Yards | 252 | 207 |
| Yards/Play | 21.00 | 8.62 |
| EPA | 20.12 | 11.96 |
| EPA/Play | 1.68 | 0.50 |
| Rushes | 53 (82%) | 35 (59%) |
| Yards | 182 | 195 |
| Yards/Play | 3.43 | 5.57 |
| EPA | -0.26 | 4.11 |
| EPA/Play | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Rushing | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 65 | 59 |
| Rushes | 53 (82%) | 35 (59%) |
| Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) | 1 (2%) | 3 (9%) |
| Successful Power Runs (Rate) | 1 (100%) | 2 (67%) |
| Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) | 8 (15%) | 9 (26%) |
| Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) | 24 (45%) | 12 (34%) |
| Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) | 20 (38%) | 21 (60%) |
| OL Line Yards | 109 | 37.2 |
| Per Carry | 2.06 | 1.06 |
| Highlight Yards | 26 | 80.5 |
| Per Rush Opportunity | 1.30 | 3.83 |
| Explosiveness | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 74 | 68 |
| Scrimmage Plays | 65 | 59 |
| Explosive Plays | 6 (9%) | 6 (10%) |
| When Passing (EPA > 2.4) | 5 (42%) | 3 (12%) |
| When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) | 1 (2%) | 3 (9%) |
| EPA w/o Explosive Plays | -0.70 | -5.76 |
| EPA/Play | -0.01 | -0.11 |
| When Passing | 2.18 | 0.52 |
| EPA/Play | 0.18 | 0.02 |
| When Rushing | -2.88 | -6.28 |
| EPA/Play | -0.06 | -0.20 |
| Situational | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Successful Plays (EPA > 0) | 31 (48%) | 30 (51%) |
| When Passing | 9 (75%) | 11 (46%) |
| When Rushing | 22 (42%) | 19 (54%) |
| On Standard Downs | 21 (47%) | 20 (50%) |
| On Passing Downs | 10 (50%) | 10 (53%) |
| On Early Downs | 22 (44%) | 22 (51%) |
| On Late Downs | 9 (60%) | 8 (50%) |
| During "Middle 8" | 9 (60%) | 3 (38%) |
| Early Downs | 50 | 43 |
| First Downs Created | 12 (24%) | 10 (23%) |
| EPA | 7.92 | 8.23 |
| EPA/Play | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| Passes | 6 (12%) | 17 (40%) |
| Rushes | 44 (88%) | 26 (60%) |
| Successful Passes (Rate) | 5 (83%) | 8 (47%) |
| Successful Rushes (Rate) | 17 (39%) | 14 (54%) |
| "Middle 8" Plays | 15 | 8 |
| EPA | 4.79 | 1.41 |
| EPA/play | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| Passes | 6 (40%) | 6 (75%) |
| Rushes | 9 (60%) | 2 (25%) |
| Successful Passes (Rate) | 4 (67%) | 2 (33%) |
| Successful Rushes (Rate) | 5 (56%) | 1 (50%) |
| Drives | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total | 9 | 8 |
| Avg Starting Field Position | Own 21 | Own 28 |
| Plays/Drive | 9.86 | 9.02 |
| Yards/Drive | 56.69 | 56.56 |
| Available Yards % | 72% | 79% |
| Defensive | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 59 | 65 |
| Stop Rate | 37% | 18% |
| Havoc Plays Created | 8 (14%) | 6 (9%) |
| Passing | 2 (8%) | 2 (17%) |
| Rushing | 6 (17%) | 4 (8%) |
| TFLs Generated | 8 | 6 |
| Passing | 2 | 2 |
| Rushing | 6 | 4 |
| Sacks Generated | 2 (8%) | 2 (17%) |
| Passes Defensed | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles Forced | 0 | 0 |
| Turnovers | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | 1 | 4 |
| Fumbles Lost | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles Recovered | 1 | 3 |
| Interceptions | 0 | 0 |
| Turnover Margin | 1 | -1 |
| Expected Turnovers | 0.5 | 2.0 |
| Expected Turnover Margin | 1.5 | -1.5 |
| Turnover Luck (pts) | -2.5 | 2.5 |
| Special Teams | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 9 | 9 |
| Total EPA | -1.53 | 1.99 |
| Field Goal EPA | 0.18 | -2.91 |
| Punting EPA | -0.41 | -0.93 |
| Kickoff Return EPA | -1.3 | 5.83 |
Air Force [show/hide]
| Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | |||||||
| Haaziq Daniels | 9/10, 252 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 2 Scks, 81.6 xQBR, 0.42 DETMER | 21.00 | 1.68 | 20.12 | 75% | 34.0% | |
| Rush attempts | |||||||
| Haaziq Daniels | 13 carries, 41 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 3.15 | 0.11 | 1.40 | 38% | 7.0% | |
| Dane Kinamon | 3 carries, 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 1.67 | 0.40 | 1.21 | 67% | 1.0% | |
| Brad Roberts | 20 carries, 77 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 3.85 | 0.03 | 0.53 | 45% | -6.0% | |
| DeAndre Hughes | 7 carries, 39 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) | 5.57 | 0.07 | 0.46 | 71% | -5.0% | |
| Brandon Lewis | 3 carries, 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.00 | -0.19 | -0.56 | 33% | -1.0% | |
| Emmanuel Michel | 4 carries, 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 1.50 | -0.38 | -1.52 | 0% | -3.0% | |
| TEAM | 3 carries, -4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | -1.33 | -0.59 | -1.76 | 0% | -1.0% | |
| Pass targets | |||||||
| Brandon Lewis | 5 catches (5 targets), 172 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 34.40 | 3.47 | 17.36 | 100% | 29.0% | |
| Dane Kinamon | 3 catches (3 targets), 40 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 13.33 | 1.66 | 4.99 | 100% | 7.0% | |
| Caleb Rillos | 1 catch (1 target), 40 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 40.00 | 2.45 | 2.45 | 100% | 5.0% | |
Louisville [show/hide]
| Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | |||||||
| Malik Cunningham | 13/21, 207 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 Scks, 61.8 xQBR, 0.26 DETMER | 9.00 | 0.52 | 11.97 | 48% | 21.0% | |
| TEAM | 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 52.7 xQBR, 0.00 DETMER | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.01 | 0% | 0.0% | |
| Rush attempts | |||||||
| Jawhar Jordan | 6 carries, 37 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.17 | 0.53 | 3.19 | 67% | 5.0% | |
| Malik Cunningham | 10 carries, 66 yds, 1 TD, 2 Fum (0 lost) | 6.60 | 0.31 | 3.14 | 60% | 27.0% | |
| Maurice Burkley | 1 carry, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 0.00 | -0.58 | -0.58 | 0% | 2.0% | |
| Trevion Cooley | 18 carries, 92 yds, 1 TD, 2 Fum (1 lost) | 5.11 | -0.09 | -1.64 | 50% | 4.0% | |
| Pass targets | |||||||
| Ahmari Huggins-Bruce | 3 catches (5 targets), 46 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 15.33 | 1.53 | 7.63 | 60% | 3.0% | |
| Tyler Harrell | 4 catches (6 targets), 80 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 20.00 | 0.75 | 4.51 | 67% | 19.0% | |
| Jawhar Jordan | 1 catch (1 target), 24 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 24.00 | 2.05 | 2.05 | 100% | 6.0% | |
| Trevion Cooley | 2 catches (2 targets), 28 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 14.00 | 0.56 | 1.11 | 50% | 4.0% | |
| Marshon Ford | 2 catches (2 targets), 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 10.00 | 0.49 | 0.99 | 50% | 3.0% | |
| Elijah Downing | 1 catch (1 target), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 9.00 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 100% | 1.0% | |
| Josh Johnson | 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 0.00 | -0.02 | -0.02 | 0% | 0.0% | |
Big Plays [show/hide]
As determined by absolute EPA.
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 5:30 | |
(Kickoff at LOU 35) Matthew Dapore kickoff for 65 yds , Jawhar Jordan return for 100 yds for a TD, (Brock Travelstead KICK) - AFA 21, LOU 14 | 6.78 | 11.5% | 12.9% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99 Started Drive at: AFA 0 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.22 = 6.78 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.78) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.5% Win Probability (After): 24.4% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 5:42 | |
(3rd & 10 at AFA 36) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 64 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 21, LOU 7 | 6.39 | 79.0% | 11.6% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 99 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.61 = 6.39 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.61) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.0% Win Probability (After): 90.6% Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:21 | |
(4th & 7 at AFA 48) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 14 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST down - AFA 29, LOU 14 | 4.73 | 6.3% | 1.6% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 34 Started Drive at: LOU 49 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.17 - -1.56 = 4.73 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.56) Score Difference (End): -15 (-11.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 29, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 6.3% Win Probability (After): 7.9% Away Score: 28 (29) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 9:12 | |
(3rd & 15 at 50) Malik Cunningham run for 34 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST down - AFA 0, LOU 0 | 4.55 | 49.3% | 10.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 16 Started Drive at: LOU 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.04 - 0.49 = 4.55 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.49) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.04) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.3% Win Probability (After): 59.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 4:04 | |
(4th & Goal at AFA 2) Trevion Cooley run for no gain to the AFA 2 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -4.49 | 12.1% | -5.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 98 Started Drive at: LOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.06 - 3.44 = -4.49 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.56) Score Difference (End): 14 (15.06) Change of Possession: 1 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 14 plays, 78 yards Win Probability (Before): 12.1% Win Probability (After): 6.8% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 14:14 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 39) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 61 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 14, LOU 0 | 4.11 | 80.6% | 6.7% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 99 Started Drive at: AFA 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.89 = 4.11 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.89) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 73 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.6% Win Probability (After): 87.3% Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:04 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 34) Tyler Harrell 34 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (Brock Travelstead Kick) - AFA 28, LOU 21 | 3.86 | 7.5% | 16.1% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99 Started Drive at: LOU 49 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.14 = 3.86 Score Difference (Before): -15 (-11.86) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.5% Win Probability (After): 23.6% Away Score: 29 (28) Home Score: 14 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 2:57 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 22) Malik Cunningham 22 Yd Run (Brock Travelstead Kick) - AFA 31, LOU 28 | 3.07 | 8.2% | 18.9% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99 Started Drive at: LOU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.93 = 3.07 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.07) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 28 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.2% Win Probability (After): 27.2% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:29 | |
(4th & 20 at AFA 27) James Turner 44 yd FG MISSED - AFA 0, LOU 0 | -2.91 | 50.2% | -8.0% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Missed Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 74 Started Drive at: LOU 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.30 - 1.61 = -2.91 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.61) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.30) Change of Possession: 1 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.2% Win Probability (After): 42.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 7:34 | |
(3rd & 10 at LOU 47) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 13 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 2.84 | 9.4% | 2.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 40 Started Drive at: LOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.60 - -0.25 = 2.84 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.25) Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.40) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.4% Win Probability (After): 11.9% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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Most Important Plays [show/hide]
As determined by absolute WPA.
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 5:30 | |
(1st & Goal at AFA 3) AIR FORCE Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line - AFA 21, LOU 7 | -2.82 | 37.5% | -25.3% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 50 Started Drive at: AFA 0 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 5.29 = -2.82 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.71) Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.53) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 37.5% Win Probability (After): 12.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 2:57 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 22) Malik Cunningham 22 Yd Run (Brock Travelstead Kick) - AFA 31, LOU 28 | 3.07 | 8.2% | 18.9% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99 Started Drive at: LOU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.93 = 3.07 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.07) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 28 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.2% Win Probability (After): 27.2% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:04 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 34) Tyler Harrell 34 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (Brock Travelstead Kick) - AFA 28, LOU 21 | 3.86 | 7.5% | 16.1% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99 Started Drive at: LOU 49 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.14 = 3.86 Score Difference (Before): -15 (-11.86) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.5% Win Probability (After): 23.6% Away Score: 29 (28) Home Score: 14 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 5:30 | |
(Kickoff at LOU 35) Matthew Dapore kickoff for 65 yds , Jawhar Jordan return for 100 yds for a TD, (Brock Travelstead KICK) - AFA 21, LOU 14 | 6.78 | 11.5% | 12.9% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99 Started Drive at: AFA 0 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.22 = 6.78 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.78) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.5% Win Probability (After): 24.4% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 2:01 | |
(3rd & Goal at LOU 5) Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 7, LOU 0 | 2.62 | 64.4% | 11.6% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99 Started Drive at: AFA 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.38 = 2.62 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.38) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 7, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.4% Win Probability (After): 76.0% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 5:42 | |
(3rd & 10 at AFA 36) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 64 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 21, LOU 7 | 6.39 | 79.0% | 11.6% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 99 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.61 = 6.39 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.61) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.0% Win Probability (After): 90.6% Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 5:30 | |
(Kickoff at AFA 45) Brock Travelstead kickoff for 55 yds for a touchback - AFA 21, LOU 14 | -0.34 | 91.0% | -11.5% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 75 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 1.56 = -0.34 Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.56) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.21) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.0% Win Probability (After): 79.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 9:12 | |
(3rd & 15 at 50) Malik Cunningham run for 34 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST down - AFA 0, LOU 0 | 4.55 | 49.3% | 10.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 16 Started Drive at: LOU 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.04 - 0.49 = 4.55 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.49) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.04) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.3% Win Probability (After): 59.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:29 | |
(4th & 20 at AFA 27) James Turner 44 yd FG MISSED - AFA 0, LOU 0 | -2.91 | 50.2% | -8.0% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Missed Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 74 Started Drive at: LOU 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.30 - 1.61 = -2.91 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.61) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.30) Change of Possession: 1 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.2% Win Probability (After): 42.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 14:14 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 39) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 61 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 14, LOU 0 | 4.11 | 80.6% | 6.7% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 99 Started Drive at: AFA 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.89 = 4.11 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.89) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 73 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.6% Win Probability (After): 87.3% Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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Scoring Plays [show/hide]
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:01 | |
(3rd & Goal at LOU 5) Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 7, LOU 0 | 2.62 | 64.4% | 11.6% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99 Started Drive at: AFA 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.38 = 2.62 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.38) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 7, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.4% Win Probability (After): 76.0% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 14:14 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 39) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 61 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 14, LOU 0 | 4.11 | 80.6% | 6.7% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 99 Started Drive at: AFA 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.89 = 4.11 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.89) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 73 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.6% Win Probability (After): 87.3% Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 9:16 | |
(1st & Goal at AFA 1) Trevion Cooley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brock Travelstead KICK) - AFA 14, LOU 7 | 0.75 | 18.2% | 6.6% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: LOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.25 = 0.75 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-7.75) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 7 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.2% Win Probability (After): 24.8% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 5:42 | |
(3rd & 10 at AFA 36) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 64 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 21, LOU 7 | 6.39 | 79.0% | 11.6% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 99 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.61 = 6.39 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.61) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.0% Win Probability (After): 90.6% Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 5:30 | |
(Kickoff at LOU 35) Matthew Dapore kickoff for 65 yds , Jawhar Jordan return for 100 yds for a TD, (Brock Travelstead KICK) - AFA 21, LOU 14 | 6.78 | 11.5% | 12.9% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99 Started Drive at: AFA 0 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.22 = 6.78 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.78) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.5% Win Probability (After): 24.4% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:54 | |
(2nd & Goal at LOU 1) Haaziq Daniels 1 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick) - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 1.15 | 88.5% | 2.1% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.85 = 1.15 Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.85) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.5% Win Probability (After): 90.5% Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 0:04 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 34) Tyler Harrell 34 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (Brock Travelstead Kick) - AFA 28, LOU 21 | 3.86 | 7.5% | 16.1% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99 Started Drive at: LOU 49 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.14 = 3.86 Score Difference (Before): -15 (-11.86) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.5% Win Probability (After): 23.6% Away Score: 29 (28) Home Score: 14 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 5:28 | |
(4th & 4 at LOU 9) Matthew Dapore 26 Yd Field Goal - AFA 31, LOU 21 | 0.18 | 90.7% | 6.0% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9 Started Drive at: AFA 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.82 = 0.18 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.82) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 16 plays, 66 yards Win Probability (Before): 90.7% Win Probability (After): 96.7% Away Score: 28 (31) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 2:57 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 22) Malik Cunningham 22 Yd Run (Brock Travelstead Kick) - AFA 31, LOU 28 | 3.07 | 8.2% | 18.9% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99 Started Drive at: LOU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.93 = 3.07 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.07) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 28 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.2% Win Probability (After): 27.2% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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All Plays [show/hide]
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at LOU 35) Brice Honaker kickoff for 63 yds , Jawhar Jordan return for 26 yds to the Lvile 28 - AFA 0, LOU 0 | -0.97 | 49.4% | -2.5% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 72 Started Drive at: LOU 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.11 - 0.86 = -0.97 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.11) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.4% Win Probability (After): 46.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 14:44 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 28) Trevion Cooley run for 7 yds to the Lvile 35 - AFA 0, LOU 0 | 0.47 | 50.3% | 1.2% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 65 Started Drive at: LOU 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.86 - 1.39 = 0.47 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.39) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.3% Win Probability (After): 51.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 14:09 | |
(2nd & 3 at LOU 35) Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST down - AFA 0, LOU 0 | 0.23 | 51.9% | 1.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 60 Started Drive at: LOU 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.21 - 1.98 = 0.23 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.98) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.21) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.9% Win Probability (After): 53.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:38 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 40) Malik Cunningham pass incomplete - AFA 0, LOU 0 | -0.70 | 52.5% | -2.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60 Started Drive at: LOU 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.51 - 2.21 = -0.70 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.21) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.51) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.5% Win Probability (After): 50.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:24 | |
(2nd & 10 at LOU 40) Trevion Cooley run for 7 yds to the Lvile 47 - AFA 0, LOU 0 | 0.10 | 49.8% | -0.5% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 53 Started Drive at: LOU 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.62 - 1.52 = 0.10 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.52) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.62) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.8% Win Probability (After): 49.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 12:42 | |
(3rd & 3 at LOU 47) Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 41 Malik Cunningham fumbled, recovered by Lvile - AFA 0, LOU 0 | -2.47 | 48.0% | -4.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 59 Started Drive at: LOU 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.87 - 1.60 = -2.47 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.60) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.87) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 48.0% Win Probability (After): 43.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 12:34 | |
(4th & 9 at LOU 41) Mark Vassett punt for 59 yds for a touchback - AFA 0, LOU 0 | 0.10 | 41.7% | 2.2% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 80 Started Drive at: LOU 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.80 - -0.90 = 0.10 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.90) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.80) Change of Possession: 1 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 41.7% Win Probability (After): 43.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 12:20 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 20) Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 22 - AFA 0, LOU 0 | -0.61 | 56.1% | -1.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 78 Started Drive at: AFA 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.18 - 0.78 = -0.61 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.78) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.18) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.1% Win Probability (After): 54.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 11:47 | |
(2nd & 8 at AFA 22) Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 25 - AFA 0, LOU 0 | -0.37 | 54.8% | -1.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 75 Started Drive at: AFA 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.20 - 0.17 = -0.37 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.17) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.20) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.8% Win Probability (After): 53.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 11:40 | |
(3rd & 5 at AFA 25) Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the AFA 25 - AFA 0, LOU 0 | -1.71 | 53.5% | -3.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: AFA 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.93 - -0.22 = -1.71 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.22) Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.93) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.5% Win Probability (After): 49.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 10:37 | |
(4th & 5 at AFA 25) Carson Bay punt for 46 yds , Josh Johnson returns for 4 yds to the Lvile 33 - AFA 0, LOU 0 | 0.01 | 49.2% | 1.2% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67 Started Drive at: AFA 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.78 - -1.79 = 0.01 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.79) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.78) Change of Possession: 1 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.2% Win Probability (After): 50.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 10:01 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 33) Trevion Cooley run for 22 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down - AFA 0, LOU 0 | 1.38 | 50.0% | 3.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 45 Started Drive at: LOU 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.24 - 1.86 = 1.38 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.86) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.24) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.0% Win Probability (After): 53.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 9:42 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 45) Trevion Cooley run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard line Trevion Cooley fumbled, recovered by Lvile - AFA 0, LOU 0 | -1.66 | 53.2% | -4.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 50 Started Drive at: LOU 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 3.26 = -1.66 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.26) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.60) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.2% Win Probability (After): 48.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 9:25 | |
(2nd & 15 at 50) Malik Cunningham pass incomplete - AFA 0, LOU 0 | -0.92 | 51.3% | -5.4% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50 Started Drive at: LOU 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.67 - 1.58 = -0.92 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.58) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.67) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.3% Win Probability (After): 45.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 9:12 | |
(3rd & 15 at 50) Malik Cunningham run for 34 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST down - AFA 0, LOU 0 | 4.55 | 49.3% | 10.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 16 Started Drive at: LOU 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.04 - 0.49 = 4.55 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.49) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.04) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.3% Win Probability (After): 59.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 8:20 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 16) Maurice Burkley run for no gain to the AFA 16 - AFA 0, LOU 0 | -0.58 | 57.1% | 1.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16 Started Drive at: LOU 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.45 - 5.04 = -0.58 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.04) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.45) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 57.1% Win Probability (After): 59.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 8:04 | |
(2nd & 10 at AFA 16) Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce - AFA 0, LOU 0 | -0.74 | 57.0% | -2.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16 Started Drive at: LOU 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.71 - 4.44 = -0.74 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.44) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.71) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 57.0% Win Probability (After): 54.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:59 | |
(3rd & 10 at AFA 16) LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 26 - AFA 0, LOU 0 | -1.25 | 55.5% | -2.9% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 26 Started Drive at: LOU 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.45 - 3.69 = -1.25 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.69) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.45) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.5% Win Probability (After): 52.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:34 | |
(3rd & 20 at AFA 26) Malik Cunningham pass incomplete - AFA 0, LOU 0 | -0.76 | 53.5% | -3.0% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26 Started Drive at: LOU 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.66 - 2.42 = -0.76 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.42) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.66) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.5% Win Probability (After): 50.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:29 | |
(4th & 20 at AFA 27) James Turner 44 yd FG MISSED - AFA 0, LOU 0 | -2.91 | 50.2% | -8.0% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Missed Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 74 Started Drive at: LOU 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.30 - 1.61 = -2.91 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.61) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.30) Change of Possession: 1 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.2% Win Probability (After): 42.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 7:00 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 26) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 40 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST down - AFA 0, LOU 0 | 2.45 | 57.6% | 5.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 34 Started Drive at: AFA 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.82 - 1.37 = 2.45 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.37) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.82) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 57.6% Win Probability (After): 62.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 6:24 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 34) Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the Lvile 32 - AFA 0, LOU 0 | -0.39 | 62.7% | -0.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 32 Started Drive at: AFA 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.48 - 3.88 = -0.39 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.88) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 62.7% Win Probability (After): 62.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 6:01 | |
(2nd & 8 at LOU 32) Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the Lvile 26 - AFA 0, LOU 0 | 0.29 | 62.2% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 26 Started Drive at: AFA 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.78 - 3.49 = 0.29 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.49) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.78) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 48 yards Win Probability (Before): 62.2% Win Probability (After): 62.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 5:20 | |
(3rd & 2 at LOU 26) Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST down - AFA 0, LOU 0 | 0.74 | 62.6% | 1.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 23 Started Drive at: AFA 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - 3.78 = 0.74 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.78) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.52) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 62.6% Win Probability (After): 64.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 4:47 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 23) Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Lvile 20 - AFA 0, LOU 0 | -0.22 | 64.6% | -0.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 20 Started Drive at: AFA 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 4.52 = -0.22 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.52) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.29) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 54 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.6% Win Probability (After): 64.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
|||||
| Q1 4:11 | |
(2nd & 7 at LOU 20) DeAndre Hughes run for 3 yds to the Lvile 17 - AFA 0, LOU 0 | -0.06 | 64.9% | -1.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 17 Started Drive at: AFA 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.24 - 4.31 = -0.06 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.31) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.24) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 57 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.9% Win Probability (After): 63.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 3:41 | |
(3rd & 4 at LOU 17) Dane Kinamon run for 9 yds to the Lvile 8 for a 1ST down - AFA 0, LOU 0 | 1.25 | 64.3% | 2.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 8 Started Drive at: AFA 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.50 - 4.24 = 1.25 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.24) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.50) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 66 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.3% Win Probability (After): 66.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 3:15 | |
(1st & Goal at LOU 8) Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the Lvile 7 - AFA 0, LOU 0 | -0.49 | 66.7% | -0.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 7 Started Drive at: AFA 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.00 - 5.50 = -0.49 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.50) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 67 yards Win Probability (Before): 66.7% Win Probability (After): 66.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 2:40 | |
(2nd & Goal at LOU 7) Brandon Lewis run for 2 yds to the Lvile 5 - AFA 0, LOU 0 | -0.63 | 66.3% | -1.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 5 Started Drive at: AFA 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.38 - 5.01 = -0.63 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.01) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.38) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 0, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 69 yards Win Probability (Before): 66.3% Win Probability (After): 64.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 2:01 | |
(3rd & Goal at LOU 5) Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 7, LOU 0 | 2.62 | 64.4% | 11.6% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99 Started Drive at: AFA 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.38 = 2.62 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.38) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 7, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.4% Win Probability (After): 76.0% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 2:01 | |
(Kickoff at LOU 35) Brice Honaker kickoff for 64 yds for a 1ST down , Jawhar Jordan return for 18 yds to the LOUISVILLE 47 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST down - AFA 7, LOU 0 | -0.02 | 26.6% | 0.1% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 66 Started Drive at: LOU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.03 - 0.05 = -0.02 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-15.01) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 7, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.6% Win Probability (After): 26.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 1:49 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 34) Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce - AFA 7, LOU 0 | -0.63 | 26.6% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66 Started Drive at: LOU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 1.01 = -0.63 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.99) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.62) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 7, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.6% Win Probability (After): 26.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 1:38 | |
(2nd & 10 at LOU 34) Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the Lvile 36 - AFA 7, LOU 0 | -0.76 | 26.0% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 64 Started Drive at: LOU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.34 - 0.42 = -0.76 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.58) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.34) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 7, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.0% Win Probability (After): 25.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 0:41 | |
(3rd & 8 at LOU 36) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 3 yds to the Lvile 39 - AFA 7, LOU 0 | -1.24 | 25.1% | -1.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 61 Started Drive at: LOU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.47 - -0.22 = -1.24 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.22) Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 7, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.1% Win Probability (After): 24.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 0:11 | |
(4th & 5 at LOU 39) Mark Vassett punt for 34 yds, downed at the AFA 27 - AFA 7, LOU 0 | -1.03 | 24.0% | -2.7% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 73 Started Drive at: LOU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.46 - -1.43 = -1.03 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.43) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.46) Change of Possession: 1 Score: AFA 7, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 24.0% Win Probability (After): 21.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 0:02 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 27) DeAndre Hughes run for 8 yds to the AFA 35 - AFA 7, LOU 0 | 0.56 | 78.0% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 65 Started Drive at: AFA 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.44 = 0.56 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.44) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 7, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.0% Win Probability (After): 77.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 14:55 | |
(2nd & 2 at AFA 35) Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down - AFA 7, LOU 0 | -0.01 | 78.0% | 1.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 61 Started Drive at: AFA 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 3.00 = -0.01 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.00) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 7, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.0% Win Probability (After): 79.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 14:14 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 39) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 61 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 14, LOU 0 | 4.11 | 80.6% | 6.7% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 99 Started Drive at: AFA 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.89 = 4.11 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.89) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 73 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.6% Win Probability (After): 87.3% Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 14:14 | |
(Kickoff at LOU 35) Brice Honaker kickoff for 56 yds for a 1ST down - AFA 14, LOU 0 | 0.98 | 11.6% | 0.7% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65 Started Drive at: LOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - -0.46 = 0.98 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.46) Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.6% Win Probability (After): 12.3% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 13:50 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 35) Trevion Cooley run for 11 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST down - AFA 14, LOU 0 | 0.75 | 12.0% | 0.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 54 Started Drive at: LOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.25 - 0.50 = 0.75 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.50) Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.75) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 12.0% Win Probability (After): 12.9% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 13:17 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 46) Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the Lvile 49 - AFA 14, LOU 0 | -0.40 | 13.2% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 51 Started Drive at: LOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.85 - 1.26 = -0.40 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.74) Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.15) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 13.2% Win Probability (After): 12.4% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 12:36 | |
(2nd & 7 at LOU 49) Malik Cunningham run for 7 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down - AFA 14, LOU 0 | 1.21 | 12.0% | 3.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 44 Started Drive at: LOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 0.90 = 1.21 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.10) Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.89) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards Win Probability (Before): 12.0% Win Probability (After): 15.1% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 12:20 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 44) Malik Cunningham sacked by Jordan Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 45 - AFA 14, LOU 0 | -1.28 | 14.1% | -2.5% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 45 Started Drive at: LOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 2.14 = -1.28 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.86) Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.14) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.1% Win Probability (After): 11.7% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 11:52 | |
(2nd & 11 at AFA 45) Jawhar Jordan run for 10 yds to the AFA 35 - AFA 14, LOU 0 | 1.67 | 11.4% | 2.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 35 Started Drive at: LOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 0.90 = 1.67 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.10) Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.4% Win Probability (After): 14.1% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 11:05 | |
(3rd & 1 at AFA 35) Jawhar Jordan run for 8 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST down - AFA 14, LOU 0 | 0.99 | 13.9% | 1.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 27 Started Drive at: LOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 2.62 = 0.99 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.38) Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 38 yards Win Probability (Before): 13.9% Win Probability (After): 15.7% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:32 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 27) Jawhar Jordan run for 10 yds to the AFA 17 for a 1ST down - AFA 14, LOU 0 | 0.94 | 15.7% | 1.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 17 Started Drive at: LOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.56 - 3.62 = 0.94 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.38) Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.44) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 48 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.7% Win Probability (After): 16.7% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:04 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 17) Malik Cunningham run for 7 yds to the AFA 10 - AFA 14, LOU 0 | 0.26 | 16.9% | 0.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 10 Started Drive at: LOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.84 - 4.57 = 0.26 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.43) Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 16.9% Win Probability (After): 17.8% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 9:45 | |
(2nd & 3 at AFA 10) Trevion Cooley run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 13 - AFA 14, LOU 0 | -1.35 | 17.3% | -2.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 13 Started Drive at: LOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 4.82 = -1.35 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.18) Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.53) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 52 yards Win Probability (Before): 17.3% Win Probability (After): 15.2% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 9:24 | |
(3rd & 6 at AFA 13) Trevion Cooley run for 12 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST down - AFA 14, LOU 0 | 2.77 | 14.9% | 3.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 1 Started Drive at: LOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.24 - 3.47 = 2.77 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.53) Score Difference (End): -14 (-7.76) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 0 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 64 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.9% Win Probability (After): 18.5% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 9:16 | |
(1st & Goal at AFA 1) Trevion Cooley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brock Travelstead KICK) - AFA 14, LOU 7 | 0.75 | 18.2% | 6.6% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: LOU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.25 = 0.75 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-7.75) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 7 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.2% Win Probability (After): 24.8% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 9:16 | |
(Kickoff at AFA 35) Brock Travelstead kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - AFA 14, LOU 7 | 0.00 | 79.1% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.80 - 1.80 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.80) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.80) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.1% Win Probability (After): 79.1% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 9:00 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 25) Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 28 - AFA 14, LOU 7 | -0.31 | 79.1% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 72 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 1.66 = -0.31 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.66) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.1% Win Probability (After): 79.0% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 8:32 | |
(2nd & 7 at AFA 28) Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 34 - AFA 14, LOU 7 | 0.43 | 78.9% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 66 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.58 - 1.16 = 0.43 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.16) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.58) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.9% Win Probability (After): 78.2% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 7:40 | |
(3rd & 1 at AFA 34) Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down - AFA 14, LOU 7 | 0.81 | 77.9% | 2.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 64 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 1.46 = 0.81 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.46) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.27) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.9% Win Probability (After): 80.2% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 7:05 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 36) Brandon Lewis run for 2 yds to the AFA 38 - AFA 14, LOU 7 | -0.55 | 80.6% | -0.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 62 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.79 - 2.34 = -0.55 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.34) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.79) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.6% Win Probability (After): 79.8% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 6:44 | |
(2nd & 8 at AFA 38) AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 33 - AFA 14, LOU 7 | -0.75 | 79.7% | -1.5% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 67 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.19 - 1.94 = -0.75 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.94) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.19) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.7% Win Probability (After): 78.2% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 6:02 | |
(2nd & 13 at AFA 33) DeAndre Hughes run for 3 yds to the AFA 36 - AFA 14, LOU 7 | 0.05 | 78.9% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 64 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 0.96 = 0.05 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.96) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.01) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 14, LOU 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 16 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.9% Win Probability (After): 78.2% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 5:42 | |
(3rd & 10 at AFA 36) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 64 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK) - AFA 21, LOU 7 | 6.39 | 79.0% | 11.6% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 99 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.61 = 6.39 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.61) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.0% Win Probability (After): 90.6% Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 5:30 | |
(Kickoff at LOU 35) Matthew Dapore kickoff for 65 yds , Jawhar Jordan return for 100 yds for a TD, (Brock Travelstead KICK) - AFA 21, LOU 14 | 6.78 | 11.5% | 12.9% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99 Started Drive at: AFA 0 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.22 = 6.78 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.78) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.5% Win Probability (After): 24.4% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 5:30 | |
(1st & Goal at AFA 3) AIR FORCE Penalty, Illegal Block (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line - AFA 21, LOU 7 | -2.82 | 37.5% | -25.3% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 50 Started Drive at: AFA 0 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 5.29 = -2.82 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.71) Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.53) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 37.5% Win Probability (After): 12.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 5:30 | |
(1st & Goal at 50) LOUISVILLE Penalty, Kickoff Out of Bounds (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 45 - AFA 21, LOU 7 | -0.22 | 12.1% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 55 Started Drive at: AFA 0 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.26 - 2.47 = -0.22 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.53) Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.74) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 12.1% Win Probability (After): 12.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 5:30 | |
(Kickoff at AFA 45) Brock Travelstead kickoff for 55 yds for a touchback - AFA 21, LOU 14 | -0.34 | 91.0% | -11.5% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 75 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 1.56 = -0.34 Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.56) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.21) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.0% Win Probability (After): 79.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 5:02 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 25) Dane Kinamon run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 20 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the AFA 35 for a 1ST down - AFA 21, LOU 14 | 0.73 | 79.6% | 0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 1.27 = 0.73 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.21) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.95) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.6% Win Probability (After): 80.3% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 4:54 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 35) Brandon Lewis run for 14 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST down - AFA 21, LOU 14 | 0.62 | 80.3% | 1.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 51 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 1.97 = 0.62 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.97) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.59) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 24 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.3% Win Probability (After): 81.9% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 3:59 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 49) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 13 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST down - AFA 21, LOU 14 | 1.17 | 81.9% | 0.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 38 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.42 - 2.25 = 1.17 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.25) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.42) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 37 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.9% Win Probability (After): 82.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 3:30 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 38) Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Lvile 34 - AFA 21, LOU 14 | 0.19 | 82.8% | -0.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 34 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 2.93 = 0.19 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.93) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.11) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.8% Win Probability (After): 82.4% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 3:00 | |
(2nd & 6 at LOU 34) Brad Roberts run for no gain to the Lvile 34 - AFA 21, LOU 14 | -0.48 | 82.7% | -1.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 2.87 = -0.48 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.87) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.7% Win Probability (After): 81.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 2:40 | |
(3rd & 6 at LOU 34) Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete - AFA 21, LOU 14 | -1.08 | 81.1% | -1.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.06 - 2.14 = -1.08 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.14) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.06) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.1% Win Probability (After): 79.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 2:00 | |
(4th & 6 at LOU 34) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 9 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST down - AFA 21, LOU 14 | 2.53 | 79.5% | 4.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 25 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.58 - 1.06 = 2.53 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.06) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.58) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.5% Win Probability (After): 84.4% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 1:28 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 25) Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Lvile 20 - AFA 21, LOU 14 | 0.24 | 84.5% | 0.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 20 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.62 - 3.38 = 0.24 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.38) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.62) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 84.5% Win Probability (After): 85.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:07 | |
(2nd & 5 at LOU 20) Timeout LOUISVILLE, clock 01:07 - AFA 21, LOU 14 | 0.00 | 86.2% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.62 - 3.62 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.62) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.62) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 86.2% Win Probability (After): 86.2% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 1:00 | |
(2nd & 5 at LOU 20) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 12 yds to the Lvile 8 for a 1ST down - AFA 21, LOU 14 | 1.36 | 87.1% | 1.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 8 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.88 - 3.52 = 1.36 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.52) Score Difference (End): 7 (11.88) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 67 yards Win Probability (Before): 87.1% Win Probability (After): 88.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:59 | |
(1st & Goal at LOU 8) DeAndre Hughes run for 7 yds to the Lvile 1 - AFA 21, LOU 14 | 1.01 | 88.3% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 1 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.85 - 4.84 = 1.01 Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.84) Score Difference (End): 7 (12.85) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 21, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.3% Win Probability (After): 88.4% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:54 | |
(2nd & Goal at LOU 1) Haaziq Daniels 1 Yd Run (Matthew Dapore Kick) - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 1.15 | 88.5% | 2.1% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.85 = 1.15 Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.85) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.5% Win Probability (After): 90.5% Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:54 | |
(Kickoff at LOU 35) Matthew Dapore kickoff for 56 yds , Maurice Burkley return for 4 yds to the Lvile 13 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -0.42 | 10.3% | -0.4% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 87 Started Drive at: LOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 0.39 = -0.42 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.61) Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.03) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 10.3% Win Probability (After): 9.9% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:45 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 13) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 31 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 0.99 | 9.9% | 1.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 56 Started Drive at: LOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 0.08 = 0.99 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.92) Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.9% Win Probability (After): 11.5% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:31 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 44) Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Josh Johnson - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -0.02 | 11.2% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56 Started Drive at: LOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - 0.85 = -0.02 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.15) Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.2% Win Probability (After): 11.1% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:24 | |
(2nd & 10 at LOU 44) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Elijah Downing for 9 yds to the AFA 47 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 0.64 | 10.6% | 1.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 47 Started Drive at: LOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.22 - 0.59 = 0.64 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.41) Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.78) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 10.6% Win Probability (After): 11.5% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:24 | |
(3rd & 1 at AFA 47) Timeout LOUISVILLE, clock 00:24 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 0.00 | 11.4% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47 Started Drive at: LOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.22 - 1.22 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.78) Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.78) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.4% Win Probability (After): 11.4% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:18 | |
(3rd & 1 at AFA 47) Trevion Cooley run for no gain to the AFA 47 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -0.36 | 10.3% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47 Started Drive at: LOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - 0.89 = -0.36 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.11) Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 10.3% Win Probability (After): 9.6% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:18 | |
(4th & 1 at AFA 47) Timeout LOUISVILLE, clock 00:18 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 0.00 | 9.6% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47 Started Drive at: LOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - 0.53 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.47) Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.6% Win Probability (After): 9.6% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 0:13 | |
(4th & 1 at AFA 47) Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 0.67 | 9.9% | 1.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 44 Started Drive at: LOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 0.35 = 0.67 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.65) Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.98) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 43 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.9% Win Probability (After): 11.4% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 0:13 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 44) TEAM pass incomplete - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -0.01 | 11.2% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44 Started Drive at: LOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 0.84 = -0.01 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.16) Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.17) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 43 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.2% Win Probability (After): 11.2% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:13 | |
(2nd & 10 at AFA 44) Timeout AIR FORCE, clock 00:13 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 0.00 | 11.2% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44 Started Drive at: LOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 0.83 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.17) Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.17) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 43 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.2% Win Probability (After): 11.2% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:07 | |
(2nd & 10 at AFA 44) Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler Harrell - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -0.04 | 11.6% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44 Started Drive at: LOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.69 - 0.73 = -0.04 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.27) Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.31) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 43 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.6% Win Probability (After): 11.0% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:07 | |
(3rd & 10 at AFA 44) Timeout AIR FORCE, clock 00:07 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 0.00 | 11.0% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44 Started Drive at: LOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.69 - 0.69 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.31) Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.31) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 43 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.0% Win Probability (After): 11.0% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:01 | |
(3rd & 10 at AFA 44) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Trevion Cooley for 18 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -0.46 | 11.3% | 3.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 26 Started Drive at: LOU 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - 0.46 = -0.46 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.54) Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.98) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 61 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.3% Win Probability (After): 14.5% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q3 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at AFA 35) Brock Travelstead kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 0.00 | 91.4% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.56 - 2.56 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.56) Score Difference (End): 14 (16.56) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.4% Win Probability (After): 91.4% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:52 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 25) Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 25 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -0.67 | 91.8% | -1.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - 2.69 = -0.67 Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.69) Score Difference (End): 14 (16.02) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.8% Win Probability (After): 90.0% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:17 | |
(2nd & 10 at AFA 25) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 27 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 2.29 | 90.9% | 1.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 48 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.26 - 1.98 = 2.29 Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.98) Score Difference (End): 14 (18.26) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 90.9% Win Probability (After): 92.8% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 13:25 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 48) DeAndre Hughes run for 13 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 0.54 | 92.8% | 0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 35 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.48 - 3.94 = 0.54 Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.94) Score Difference (End): 14 (18.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 92.8% Win Probability (After): 93.0% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:45 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 35) Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the Lvile 32 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -0.27 | 93.2% | -0.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 32 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.19 - 4.46 = -0.27 Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.46) Score Difference (End): 14 (18.19) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 43 yards Win Probability (Before): 93.2% Win Probability (After): 92.8% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:00 | |
(2nd & 7 at LOU 32) Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 33 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -1.04 | 93.2% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 33 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.16 - 4.20 = -1.04 Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.20) Score Difference (End): 14 (17.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 93.2% Win Probability (After): 92.5% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 11:25 | |
(3rd & 8 at LOU 33) Haaziq Daniels sacked by Ashton Gillotte for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 39 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -2.13 | 92.8% | -1.4% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 39 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - 3.12 = -2.13 Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.12) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 36 yards Win Probability (Before): 92.8% Win Probability (After): 91.4% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:53 | |
(4th & 14 at LOU 39) Carson Bay punt for 39 yds for a touchback - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 0.11 | 91.6% | -1.5% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 80 Started Drive at: AFA 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - 0.68 = 0.11 Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.68) Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.79) Change of Possession: 1 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 36 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.6% Win Probability (After): 90.2% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 10:25 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 20) Trevion Cooley run for 4 yds to the Lvile 24 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -0.19 | 9.4% | 0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 76 Started Drive at: LOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.89 - -0.70 = -0.19 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.70) Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.89) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.4% Win Probability (After): 9.5% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:01 | |
(2nd & 6 at LOU 24) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Trevion Cooley for 10 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 1.58 | 9.3% | 0.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 66 Started Drive at: LOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.51 - -1.07 = 1.58 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.07) Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.49) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.3% Win Probability (After): 9.9% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 9:38 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 34) Trevion Cooley run for 13 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 0.60 | 10.5% | 0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 53 Started Drive at: LOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.27 - 0.67 = 0.60 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.33) Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.73) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 10.5% Win Probability (After): 11.1% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 8:36 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 47) Trevion Cooley run for 5 yds to the AFA 48 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 0.37 | 10.8% | 1.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 48 Started Drive at: LOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.70 - 1.34 = 0.37 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.66) Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.30) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 10.8% Win Probability (After): 11.7% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 8:02 | |
(2nd & 5 at AFA 48) Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 47 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -1.76 | 10.8% | -1.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 53 Started Drive at: LOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.24 - 1.52 = -1.76 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.48) Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.24) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 10.8% Win Probability (After): 9.4% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 7:34 | |
(3rd & 10 at LOU 47) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 13 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 2.84 | 9.4% | 2.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 40 Started Drive at: LOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.60 - -0.25 = 2.84 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.25) Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.40) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.4% Win Probability (After): 11.9% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 6:59 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 40) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 19 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 1.43 | 11.6% | 1.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 21 Started Drive at: LOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.04 - 2.61 = 1.43 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.39) Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.96) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 59 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.6% Win Probability (After): 13.4% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 6:40 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 21) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 9 yds to the AFA 12 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 0.92 | 13.1% | 1.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 12 Started Drive at: LOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.98 - 4.05 = 0.92 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.95) Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.02) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 68 yards Win Probability (Before): 13.1% Win Probability (After): 14.4% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 6:15 | |
(2nd & 1 at AFA 12) Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 16 Malik Cunningham fumbled, recovered by Lvile - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -1.38 | 14.5% | -1.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 16 Started Drive at: LOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.58 - 4.96 = -1.38 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.04) Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.42) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 64 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.5% Win Probability (After): 12.6% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 5:20 | |
(3rd & 5 at AFA 16) Jawhar Jordan run for 6 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 1.01 | 13.4% | 0.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 10 Started Drive at: LOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.65 - 3.63 = 1.01 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.37) Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 70 yards Win Probability (Before): 13.4% Win Probability (After): 13.8% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 5:00 | |
(1st & Goal at AFA 10) Malik Cunningham sacked by TD Blackmon for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 12 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -1.27 | 14.0% | -1.6% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 12 Started Drive at: LOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.49 - 4.76 = -1.27 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.24) Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.51) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 68 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.0% Win Probability (After): 12.4% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 4:50 | |
(2nd & Goal at AFA 12) Trevion Cooley run for 6 yds to the AFA 6 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -0.13 | 13.8% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 6 Started Drive at: LOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.81 - 3.94 = -0.13 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.06) Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.19) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 13.8% Win Probability (After): 13.1% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 4:30 | |
(3rd & Goal at AFA 6) Trevion Cooley run for 4 yds to the AFA 2 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -0.38 | 12.3% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 2 Started Drive at: LOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 3.82 = -0.38 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.18) Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.56) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 78 yards Win Probability (Before): 12.3% Win Probability (After): 12.3% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 4:04 | |
(4th & Goal at AFA 2) Trevion Cooley run for no gain to the AFA 2 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -4.49 | 12.1% | -5.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 98 Started Drive at: LOU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.06 - 3.44 = -4.49 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.56) Score Difference (End): 14 (15.06) Change of Possession: 1 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 14 plays, 78 yards Win Probability (Before): 12.1% Win Probability (After): 6.8% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 3:48 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 2) Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 4 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -0.38 | 93.3% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 96 Started Drive at: AFA 2 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 1.01 = -0.38 Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.01) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.64) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 93.3% Win Probability (After): 93.0% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 3:11 | |
(2nd & 8 at AFA 4) Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 9 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | 0.03 | 93.0% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 91 Started Drive at: AFA 2 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.71 - 0.69 = 0.03 Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.69) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.71) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 93.0% Win Probability (After): 92.8% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 2:08 | |
(3rd & 3 at AFA 9) DeAndre Hughes run for 1 yd to the AFA 10 DeAndre Hughes fumbled, recovered by AFA - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -1.70 | 94.2% | -3.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 90 Started Drive at: AFA 2 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.94 - 0.76 = -1.70 Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.76) Score Difference (End): 14 (13.06) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 94.2% Win Probability (After): 91.0% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 1:50 | |
(4th & 2 at AFA 10) Carson Bay punt for 41 yds, downed at the Lvile 49 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -0.54 | 91.6% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 51 Started Drive at: AFA 2 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.47 - -0.93 = -0.54 Score Difference (Before): 14 (13.07) Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.53) Change of Possession: 1 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.6% Win Probability (After): 91.1% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 1:30 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 49) Jawhar Jordan run for 4 yds to the AFA 47 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -0.06 | 8.8% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 47 Started Drive at: LOU 49 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 1.55 = -0.06 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.45) Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.52) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.8% Win Probability (After): 8.9% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 1:10 | |
(2nd & 6 at AFA 47) Jawhar Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 48 - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -1.35 | 8.7% | -1.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 48 Started Drive at: LOU 49 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - 1.54 = -1.35 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.46) Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.81) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.7% Win Probability (After): 7.5% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:50 | |
(3rd & 7 at AFA 48) Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler Harrell - AFA 28, LOU 14 | -1.80 | 7.2% | -1.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48 Started Drive at: LOU 49 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.58 - 0.21 = -1.80 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.79) Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.58) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.2% Win Probability (After): 6.2% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:21 | |
(4th & 7 at AFA 48) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 14 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST down - AFA 29, LOU 14 | 4.73 | 6.3% | 1.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 34 Started Drive at: LOU 49 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.17 - -1.56 = 4.73 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.56) Score Difference (End): -15 (-11.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 29, LOU 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 6.3% Win Probability (After): 7.9% Away Score: 28 (29) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 0:04 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 34) Tyler Harrell 34 Yd pass from Malik Cunningham (Brock Travelstead Kick) - AFA 28, LOU 21 | 3.86 | 7.5% | 16.1% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99 Started Drive at: LOU 49 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.14 = 3.86 Score Difference (Before): -15 (-11.86) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.5% Win Probability (After): 23.6% Away Score: 29 (28) Home Score: 14 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:04 | |
(Kickoff at AFA 35) Brock Travelstead kickoff for 40 yds fair catch by Brandon Lewis at the AFA 1 - AFA 28, LOU 21 | -1.44 | 81.5% | -2.9% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99 Started Drive at: AFA 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.77 - 2.21 = -1.44 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.21) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.77) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.5% Win Probability (After): 78.6% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:01 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 25) Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 26 - AFA 28, LOU 21 | -0.49 | 81.5% | -1.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74 Started Drive at: AFA 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.73 - 2.21 = -0.49 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.21) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.73) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.5% Win Probability (After): 80.2% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 14:55 | |
(2nd & 9 at AFA 26) Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 29 - AFA 28, LOU 21 | -0.62 | 79.1% | -2.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 71 Started Drive at: AFA 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 1.72 = -0.62 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.72) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.10) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.1% Win Probability (After): 77.1% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 14:13 | |
(3rd & 6 at AFA 29) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 11 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 21 | 2.05 | 78.4% | 3.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 60 Started Drive at: AFA 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.10 - 1.05 = 2.05 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.05) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.10) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.4% Win Probability (After): 81.9% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:30 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 40) Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 42 - AFA 28, LOU 21 | -0.54 | 83.0% | -1.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 58 Started Drive at: AFA 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - 3.03 = -0.54 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.03) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.49) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 83.0% Win Probability (After): 81.9% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 12:44 | |
(2nd & 8 at AFA 42) Haaziq Daniels sacked by Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 36 - AFA 28, LOU 21 | -1.47 | 82.9% | -3.0% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 64 Started Drive at: AFA 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.98 - 2.45 = -1.47 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.45) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.98) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.9% Win Probability (After): 79.8% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 12:22 | |
(3rd & 14 at AFA 36) Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 15 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 21 | 2.46 | 80.2% | 5.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 49 Started Drive at: AFA 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.51 - 1.05 = 2.46 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.05) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.51) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.2% Win Probability (After): 85.2% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 11:40 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 49) Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the Lvile 47 - AFA 28, LOU 21 | -0.43 | 85.6% | -0.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 47 Started Drive at: AFA 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.09 - 3.52 = -0.43 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.52) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 28 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.6% Win Probability (After): 84.7% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 11:19 | |
(2nd & 8 at LOU 47) Haaziq Daniels run for 10 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 21 | 0.97 | 85.4% | 0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 37 Started Drive at: AFA 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.03 - 3.06 = 0.97 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.06) Score Difference (End): 7 (11.03) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 38 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.4% Win Probability (After): 86.1% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 10:45 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 37) DeAndre Hughes run for 4 yds to the Lvile 33 - AFA 28, LOU 21 | 0.06 | 85.8% | 0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 33 Started Drive at: AFA 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.09 - 4.03 = 0.06 Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.03) Score Difference (End): 7 (11.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.8% Win Probability (After): 85.9% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 10:00 | |
(2nd & 6 at LOU 33) Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the Lvile 29 - AFA 28, LOU 21 | -0.09 | 87.1% | -1.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 29 Started Drive at: AFA 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.00 - 4.09 = -0.09 Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.09) Score Difference (End): 7 (11.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 46 yards Win Probability (Before): 87.1% Win Probability (After): 85.3% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 9:30 | |
(3rd & 2 at LOU 29) Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 21 | 0.71 | 86.7% | 0.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 25 Started Drive at: AFA 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.69 - 3.98 = 0.71 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.98) Score Difference (End): 7 (11.69) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 86.7% Win Probability (After): 87.7% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 8:25 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 25) Haaziq Daniels run for 8 yds to the Lvile 17 - AFA 28, LOU 21 | 0.85 | 89.4% | 1.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 17 Started Drive at: AFA 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.24 - 4.39 = 0.85 Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.39) Score Difference (End): 7 (12.24) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 58 yards Win Probability (Before): 89.4% Win Probability (After): 90.4% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 8:00 | |
(2nd & 2 at LOU 17) Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST down - AFA 28, LOU 21 | -0.10 | 91.3% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 15 Started Drive at: AFA 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.97 - 5.07 = -0.10 Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.07) Score Difference (End): 7 (11.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 60 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.3% Win Probability (After): 90.6% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 7:20 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 15) Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the Lvile 14 - AFA 28, LOU 21 | -0.50 | 92.0% | -0.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 14 Started Drive at: AFA 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 5.00 = -0.50 Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.00) Score Difference (End): 7 (11.49) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 14 plays, 61 yards Win Probability (Before): 92.0% Win Probability (After): 91.2% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 6:40 | |
(2nd & 9 at LOU 14) Dane Kinamon run for 1 yd to the Lvile 13 - AFA 28, LOU 21 | -0.78 | 91.7% | -1.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 13 Started Drive at: AFA 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.75 - 4.53 = -0.78 Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.53) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.75) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 15 plays, 62 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.7% Win Probability (After): 90.1% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 5:50 | |
(3rd & 8 at LOU 13) Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the Lvile 9 - AFA 28, LOU 21 | -0.86 | 91.4% | -1.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 9 Started Drive at: AFA 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.86 - 3.72 = -0.86 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.72) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 28, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 16 plays, 66 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.4% Win Probability (After): 89.5% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 5:28 | |
(4th & 4 at LOU 9) Matthew Dapore 26 Yd Field Goal - AFA 31, LOU 21 | 0.18 | 90.7% | 6.0% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9 Started Drive at: AFA 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.82 = 0.18 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.82) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 16 plays, 66 yards Win Probability (Before): 90.7% Win Probability (After): 96.7% Away Score: 28 (31) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 5:24 | |
(Kickoff at LOU 35) Matthew Dapore kickoff for 46 yds , Jawhar Jordan return for 11 yds to the Lvile 30 - AFA 31, LOU 21 | -0.54 | 7.4% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 70 Started Drive at: LOU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 0.66 = -0.54 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.34) Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.87) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.4% Win Probability (After): 6.6% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 5:07 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 30) Trevion Cooley run for 2 yds to the Lvile 32 - AFA 31, LOU 21 | -0.54 | 8.2% | -1.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 68 Started Drive at: LOU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 1.09 = -0.54 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.91) Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.45) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.2% Win Probability (After): 7.2% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 4:47 | |
(2nd & 8 at LOU 32) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 6 yds to the Lvile 38 - AFA 31, LOU 21 | 0.56 | 6.3% | 1.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 62 Started Drive at: LOU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 0.55 = 0.56 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.45) Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.88) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 6.3% Win Probability (After): 7.8% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 4:33 | |
(3rd & 2 at LOU 38) LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 33 - AFA 31, LOU 21 | -1.07 | 6.6% | -1.4% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 67 Started Drive at: LOU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 1.09 = -1.07 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.91) Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.98) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 6.6% Win Probability (After): 5.3% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 4:07 | |
(3rd & 7 at LOU 33) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - AFA 31, LOU 21 | 2.23 | 4.9% | 4.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 50 Started Drive at: LOU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.28 - 0.05 = 2.23 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.95) Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.72) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 4.9% Win Probability (After): 9.1% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 3:37 | |
(1st & 10 at 50) Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds to the AFA 46 - AFA 31, LOU 21 | 0.18 | 7.1% | 1.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 46 Started Drive at: LOU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 2.11 = 0.18 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.89) Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.71) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.1% Win Probability (After): 8.2% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 3:11 | |
(2nd & 6 at AFA 46) Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jawhar Jordan for 24 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST down - AFA 31, LOU 21 | 2.05 | 5.8% | 5.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 22 Started Drive at: LOU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.07 - 2.02 = 2.05 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.98) Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.93) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 21 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 53 yards Win Probability (Before): 5.8% Win Probability (After): 11.4% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (21) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 2:57 | |
(1st & 10 at AFA 22) Malik Cunningham 22 Yd Run (Brock Travelstead Kick) - AFA 31, LOU 28 | 3.07 | 8.2% | 18.9% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99 Started Drive at: LOU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.93 = 3.07 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.07) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 28 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.2% Win Probability (After): 27.2% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 21 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 2:57 | |
(Kickoff at AFA 35) Ryan Chalifoux on-side kick recovered by AIR FORCE at the Lvile 47 , Dane Kinamon return for no gain to the Lvile 47 - AFA 31, LOU 28 | 0.48 | 84.5% | 3.5% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 47 Started Drive at: LOU 47 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.67 - 1.18 = 0.48 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.18) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.67) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 28 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 84.5% Win Probability (After): 88.0% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 2:28 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 47) Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Lvile 44 - AFA 31, LOU 28 | -0.13 | 88.7% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 44 Started Drive at: LOU 47 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 2.16 = -0.13 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.16) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.03) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 28 Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.7% Win Probability (After): 88.2% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 2:07 | |
(2nd & 7 at LOU 44) Brad Roberts run for 10 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST down - AFA 31, LOU 28 | 1.17 | 87.6% | 2.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 34 Started Drive at: LOU 47 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.98 - 1.81 = 1.17 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.81) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.98) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 28 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 87.6% Win Probability (After): 90.4% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 2:03 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 34) Timeout LOUISVILLE, clock 02:03 - AFA 31, LOU 28 | 0.00 | 92.6% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34 Started Drive at: LOU 47 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.98 - 2.98 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.98) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.98) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 28 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 92.6% Win Probability (After): 92.6% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 1:37 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 34) Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the Lvile 25 - AFA 31, LOU 28 | 1.09 | 94.3% | -2.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 25 Started Drive at: LOU 47 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.77 - 2.69 = 1.09 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.69) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.77) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 28 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 94.3% Win Probability (After): 92.3% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 1:37 | |
(2nd & 1 at LOU 25) Timeout LOUISVILLE, clock 01:37 - AFA 31, LOU 28 | 0.00 | 95.2% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25 Started Drive at: LOU 47 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.77 - 3.77 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.77) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.77) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 28 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 95.2% Win Probability (After): 95.2% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 1:35 | |
(2nd & 1 at LOU 25) Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST down - AFA 31, LOU 28 | -0.16 | 95.3% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 23 Started Drive at: LOU 47 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.46 - 3.62 = -0.16 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.62) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.46) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 28 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards Win Probability (Before): 95.3% Win Probability (After): 95.0% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 1:35 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 23) Timeout LOUISVILLE, clock 01:35 - AFA 31, LOU 28 | 0.00 | 95.0% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23 Started Drive at: LOU 47 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.46 - 3.46 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.46) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.46) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 28 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards Win Probability (Before): 95.0% Win Probability (After): 95.0% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0 |
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| Q4 1:17 | |
(1st & 10 at LOU 23) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 24 - AFA 31, LOU 28 | -0.97 | 97.5% | -2.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 24 Started Drive at: LOU 47 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.44 - 3.41 = -0.97 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.41) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.44) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 28 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 23 yards Win Probability (Before): 97.5% Win Probability (After): 94.7% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0 |
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| Q4 0:42 | |
(2nd & 11 at LOU 24) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 26 - AFA 31, LOU 28 | -0.66 | 98.2% | -3.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 26 Started Drive at: LOU 47 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.88 - 2.54 = -0.66 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.54) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.88) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 28 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 21 yards Win Probability (Before): 98.2% Win Probability (After): 95.0% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0 |
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| Q4 0:03 | |
(3rd & 13 at LOU 26) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 27 - AFA 31, LOU 28 | -0.14 | 95.3% | 4.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 27 Started Drive at: LOU 47 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - 1.60 = -0.14 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.60) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.46) Change of Possession: 0 Score: AFA 31, LOU 28 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 95.3% Win Probability (After): 100.0% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 0 |
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