Win Probability
Game Excitement Index: 4.54 | Odds: MSST -10, O/U 58.0 | Download Chart
Expected Points
Team Stats [show/hide]
| Overall |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 85 | 80 |
| Total EPA | -12.25 | 18.28 |
| Offensive EPA | -6.83 | 15.42 |
| Special Teams EPA | -4.62 | 5.51 |
| Penalty EPA | -1.23 | -4.93 |
| Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA | 0.43 | 2.28 |
| Production | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 73 | 72 |
| Yards | 329 | 492 |
| Yards/Play | 4.51 | 6.83 |
| EPA | -6.83 | 15.42 |
| EPA/Play | -0.09 | 0.21 |
| Passes | 57 (78%) | 29 (40%) |
| Yards | 290 | 252 |
| Yards/Play | 5.09 | 8.69 |
| EPA | -7.21 | 5.70 |
| EPA/Play | -0.13 | 0.20 |
| Rushes | 16 (22%) | 43 (60%) |
| Yards | 85 | 266 |
| Yards/Play | 5.31 | 6.19 |
| EPA | 0.38 | 9.72 |
| EPA/Play | 0.02 | 0.23 |
| Rushing | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 73 | 72 |
| Rushes | 16 (22%) | 43 (60%) |
| Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) | 2 (12%) | 2 (5%) |
| Successful Power Runs (Rate) | 2 (100%) | 2 (100%) |
| Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) | 2 (12%) | 2 (5%) |
| Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) | 7 (44%) | 14 (33%) |
| Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) | 9 (56%) | 26 (60%) |
| OL Line Yards | 32.2 | 89.6 |
| Per Carry | 2.01 | 2.08 |
| Highlight Yards | 29.5 | 81 |
| Per Rush Opportunity | 3.28 | 3.12 |
| Explosiveness | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 85 | 80 |
| Scrimmage Plays | 73 | 72 |
| Explosive Plays | 3 (4%) | 7 (10%) |
| When Passing (EPA > 2.4) | 2 (4%) | 4 (14%) |
| When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) | 1 (6%) | 3 (7%) |
| EPA w/o Explosive Plays | -15.65 | -3.99 |
| EPA/Play | -0.22 | -0.06 |
| When Passing | -14.15 | -6.57 |
| EPA/Play | -0.25 | -0.23 |
| When Rushing | -1.50 | 2.57 |
| EPA/Play | -0.10 | 0.06 |
| Situational | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Successful Plays (EPA > 0) | 32 (44%) | 36 (50%) |
| When Passing | 24 (42%) | 12 (41%) |
| When Rushing | 8 (50%) | 24 (56%) |
| On Standard Downs | 20 (43%) | 24 (49%) |
| On Passing Downs | 12 (44%) | 12 (52%) |
| On Early Downs | 24 (44%) | 30 (52%) |
| On Late Downs | 8 (42%) | 6 (43%) |
| During "Middle 8" | 4 (36%) | 4 (31%) |
| Early Downs | 54 | 58 |
| First Downs Created | 12 (22%) | 17 (29%) |
| EPA | -1.25 | 14.97 |
| EPA/Play | -0.02 | 0.26 |
| Passes | 42 (78%) | 19 (33%) |
| Rushes | 12 (22%) | 39 (67%) |
| Successful Passes (Rate) | 18 (43%) | 9 (47%) |
| Successful Rushes (Rate) | 6 (50%) | 21 (54%) |
| "Middle 8" Plays | 11 | 13 |
| EPA | -2.32 | -3.13 |
| EPA/play | -0.21 | -0.24 |
| Passes | 11 (100%) | 7 (54%) |
| Rushes | 0 (0%) | 6 (46%) |
| Successful Passes (Rate) | 4 (36%) | 0 (0%) |
| Successful Rushes (Rate) | 0 (0%) | 4 (67%) |
| Drives | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total | 11 | 11 |
| Avg Starting Field Position | Own 22 | Own 24 |
| Plays/Drive | 8.26 | 8.67 |
| Yards/Drive | 39.55 | 55.07 |
| Available Yards % | 51% | 72% |
| Defensive | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 72 | 73 |
| Stop Rate | 39% | 53% |
| Havoc Plays Created | 5 (7%) | 9 (12%) |
| Passing | 2 (7%) | 8 (14%) |
| Rushing | 3 (7%) | 1 (6%) |
| TFLs Generated | 5 | 8 |
| Passing | 2 | 7 |
| Rushing | 3 | 1 |
| Sacks Generated | 1 (3%) | 4 (7%) |
| Passes Defensed | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles Forced | 0 | 0 |
| Turnovers | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 |
| Fumbles | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles Lost | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles Recovered | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 1 | 0 |
| Turnover Margin | -3 | 3 |
| Expected Turnovers | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Expected Turnover Margin | -0.2 | 0.2 |
| Turnover Luck (pts) | -13.9 | 13.9 |
| Special Teams | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 12 | 8 |
| Total EPA | -4.62 | 5.51 |
| Field Goal EPA | 0 | 0.42 |
| Punting EPA | -0.14 | 5.1 |
| Kickoff Return EPA | -4.48 | 0 |
Mississippi State [show/hide]
| Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | |||||||
| Will Rogers | 32/53, 290 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 4 Scks, 55.5 xQBR | 5.09 | -0.13 | -7.21 | 42% | -16.0% | |
| Rush attempts | |||||||
| Dillon Johnson | 9 carries, 62 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.89 | 0.22 | 1.96 | 67% | 0.0% | |
| Jo'quavious Marks | 5 carries, 19 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 3.80 | -0.06 | -0.28 | 40% | 2.0% | |
| Will Rogers | 2 carries, 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 2.00 | -0.65 | -1.30 | 0% | -2.0% | |
| Pass targets | |||||||
| Austin Williams | 5 catches (6 targets), 74 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 14.80 | 0.57 | 3.43 | 67% | 0.0% | |
| Rara Thomas | 2 catches (4 targets), 32 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 16.00 | 0.84 | 3.36 | 50% | 8.0% | |
| Jo'quavious Marks | 4 catches (9 targets), 38 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 9.50 | 0.32 | 2.92 | 56% | 4.0% | |
| Caleb Ducking | 2 catches (2 targets), 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 8.50 | 1.21 | 2.42 | 100% | 1.0% | |
| Makai Polk | 7 catches (9 targets), 57 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 8.14 | 0.18 | 1.60 | 56% | -5.0% | |
| Jamire Calvin | 4 catches (4 targets), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 2.50 | 0.21 | 0.84 | 50% | 2.0% | |
| Rufus Harvey | 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 0.00 | -0.63 | -0.63 | 0% | 0.0% | |
| Lideatrick Griffin | 2 catches (4 targets), 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 9.00 | -0.38 | -1.51 | 25% | -3.0% | |
| Jaden Walley | 3 catches (7 targets), 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.00 | -0.38 | -2.69 | 29% | -2.0% | |
| Dillon Johnson | 3 catches (5 targets), 26 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) | 8.67 | -0.78 | -3.88 | 20% | 0.0% | |
Texas Tech [show/hide]
| Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | |||||||
| Donovan Smith | 15/28, 252 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 64.7 xQBR | 8.69 | 0.20 | 5.70 | 41% | -5.0% | |
| Rush attempts | |||||||
| Tahj Brooks | 16 carries, 107 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.69 | 0.37 | 5.87 | 69% | 5.0% | |
| Donovan Smith | 4 carries, 36 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 9.00 | 0.92 | 3.68 | 100% | 17.0% | |
| SaRodorick Thompson | 14 carries, 80 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 5.71 | 0.17 | 2.44 | 43% | 1.0% | |
| Kaylon Geiger | 3 carries, 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.00 | 0.16 | 0.48 | 67% | 0.0% | |
| Myles Price | 2 carries, 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 7.50 | -0.22 | -0.45 | 50% | -1.0% | |
| Xavier White | 4 carries, 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 2.50 | -0.58 | -2.31 | 0% | -7.0% | |
| Pass targets | |||||||
| Jerand Bradley | 2 catches (2 targets), 64 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 32.00 | 2.82 | 5.63 | 100% | 13.0% | |
| J.J. Sparkman | 2 catches (2 targets), 29 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 14.50 | 1.91 | 3.83 | 100% | 7.0% | |
| Travis Koontz | 2 catches (2 targets), 41 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 20.50 | 0.94 | 1.87 | 50% | 4.0% | |
| Myles Price | 3 catches (8 targets), 72 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 24.00 | 0.18 | 1.43 | 38% | -8.0% | |
| Xavier White | 1 catch (1 target), 19 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 19.00 | 1.42 | 1.42 | 100% | 0.0% | |
| Trey Cleveland | 1 catch (2 targets), 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 18.00 | 0.47 | 0.94 | 50% | 2.0% | |
| Dalton Rigdon | 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 0.00 | -0.88 | -0.88 | 0% | 0.0% | |
| Mason Tharp | 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 0.00 | -0.99 | -0.99 | 0% | -4.0% | |
| Kaylon Geiger | 4 catches (6 targets), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 2.25 | -0.69 | -4.12 | 33% | -10.0% | |
Big Plays [show/hide]
As determined by absolute EPA.
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 9:19 | |
(2nd & 7 at TTU 47) Donovan Smith pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 52 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 13 | 4.20 | 58.5% | 6.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 1 Started Drive at: TTU 5 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.51 - 2.31 = 4.20 Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.31) Score Difference (End): 6 (12.51) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 94 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.5% Win Probability (After): 64.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 14:08 | |
(3rd & 7 at TTU 17) Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 17 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK) - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 3.64 | 64.3% | 6.1% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.36 = 3.64 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.64) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.3% Win Probability (After): 70.4% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:31 | |
(4th & 17 at MSST 40) Austin McNamara punt for 27 yds , Austin Williams returns for 1 yd to the MisSt 14 Austin Williams fumbled, recovered by TexTc Tyrique Matthews - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 3.61 | 38.7% | 14.5% |
|
Play Type: Punt Team Fumble Recovery Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 14 Started Drive at: TTU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.09 - 0.49 = 3.61 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.49) Score Difference (End): 3 (7.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 38.7% Win Probability (After): 53.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 4:52 | |
(3rd & 5 at TTU 20) Will Rogers sacked by Tyree Wilson for a loss of 11 yards to the TexTc 31 - MSST 7, TTU 20 | -3.56 | 32.5% | -11.4% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 31 Started Drive at: MSST 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 3.49 = -3.56 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-9.51) Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.07) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 30 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.5% Win Probability (After): 21.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 0:21 | |
(3rd & 11 at TTU 38) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 18 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 10 | 3.30 | 52.5% | 6.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 20 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 1.00 = 3.30 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.00) Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.71) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.5% Win Probability (After): 59.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 12:29 | |
(3rd & 3 at TTU 46) Will Rogers pass intercepted Eric Monroe return for no gain to the TexTc 15 - MSST 7, TTU 27 | -3.15 | 2.3% | -1.0% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 85 Started Drive at: MSST 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.17 - 0.98 = -3.15 Score Difference (Before): -20 (-19.02) Score Difference (End): 20 (22.17) Change of Possession: 1 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.3% Win Probability (After): 1.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:02 | |
(3rd & 9 at MSST 14) Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 14 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) - MSST 7, TTU 27 | 3.11 | 91.7% | 5.9% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 99 Started Drive at: TTU 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.89 = 3.11 Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.89) Score Difference (End): 20 (20.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.7% Win Probability (After): 97.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:49 | |
(2nd & 9 at TTU 26) SaRodorick Thompson run for 33 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 0 | 3.02 | 22.6% | 5.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 41 Started Drive at: TTU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.51 - 0.49 = 3.02 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.49) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.51) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.6% Win Probability (After): 28.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 6:25 | |
(3rd & 18 at TTU 42) Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds Dillon Johnson fumbled, recovered by TexTc DaMarcus Fields - MSST 7, TTU 34 | -2.83 | 0.3% | -0.2% |
|
Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 64 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.38 - 0.44 = -2.83 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-26.56) Score Difference (End): 27 (29.38) Change of Possession: 1 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.3% Win Probability (After): 0.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 4:06 | |
(4th & 16 at TTU 31) Will Rogers sacked by Tyree Wilson for a loss of 9 yards to the TexTc 40 - MSST 7, TTU 20 | -2.75 | 21.0% | -5.6% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 60 Started Drive at: MSST 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.83 - -0.08 = -2.75 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-13.08) Score Difference (End): 13 (15.83) Change of Possession: 1 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 21 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.0% Win Probability (After): 15.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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Most Important Plays [show/hide]
As determined by absolute WPA.
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 0:31 | |
(4th & 17 at MSST 40) Austin McNamara punt for 27 yds , Austin Williams returns for 1 yd to the MisSt 14 Austin Williams fumbled, recovered by TexTc Tyrique Matthews - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 3.61 | 38.7% | 14.5% |
|
Play Type: Punt Team Fumble Recovery Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 14 Started Drive at: TTU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.09 - 0.49 = 3.61 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.49) Score Difference (End): 3 (7.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 38.7% Win Probability (After): 53.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 4:52 | |
(3rd & 5 at TTU 20) Will Rogers sacked by Tyree Wilson for a loss of 11 yards to the TexTc 31 - MSST 7, TTU 20 | -3.56 | 32.5% | -11.4% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 31 Started Drive at: MSST 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 3.49 = -3.56 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-9.51) Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.07) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 30 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.5% Win Probability (After): 21.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:13 | |
(4th & 4 at MSST 8) Jonathan Garibay 26 yd FG GOOD - MSST 7, TTU 13 | 0.41 | 50.0% | 11.2% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8 Started Drive at: MSST 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.59 = 0.41 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.59) Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.0% Win Probability (After): 61.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 3:21 | |
(4th & 11 at MSST 30) Archer Trafford punt for 39 yds , Adrian Frye returns for 5 yds to the TexTc 36 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -0.47 | 53.1% | 8.0% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 64 Started Drive at: MSST 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.67 - -1.20 = -0.47 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.20) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.67) Change of Possession: 1 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.1% Win Probability (After): 61.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 4:30 | |
(2nd & 12 at MSST 22) Donovan Smith run for 7 yds to the MisSt 15 - MSST 0, TTU 7 | 0.29 | 42.5% | 7.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 15 Started Drive at: TTU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.33 - 4.04 = 0.29 Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.04) Score Difference (End): 7 (11.33) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 77 yards Win Probability (Before): 42.5% Win Probability (After): 50.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 3:03 | |
(4th & 3 at MSST 13) Jonathan Garibay 31 yd FG GOOD - MSST 0, TTU 10 | 0.00 | 47.7% | 7.5% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 13 Started Drive at: TTU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.00 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.00) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 79 yards Win Probability (Before): 47.7% Win Probability (After): 55.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 5:58 | |
(3rd & 10 at TTU 43) Donovan Smith pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 18 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 2.55 | 33.8% | 7.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 39 Started Drive at: TTU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 0.90 = 2.55 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.90) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.45) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 44 yards Win Probability (Before): 33.8% Win Probability (After): 41.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 9:02 | |
(2nd & 9 at TTU 18) Donovan Smith pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 12 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 1.44 | 31.1% | 6.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 70 Started Drive at: TTU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 0.43 = 1.44 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.43) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.87) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.1% Win Probability (After): 38.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 0:21 | |
(3rd & 11 at TTU 38) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 18 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 10 | 3.30 | 52.5% | 6.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 20 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 1.00 = 3.30 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.00) Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.71) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.5% Win Probability (After): 59.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 3:42 | |
(3rd & 5 at MSST 15) Xavier White run for 2 yds to the MisSt 13 - MSST 0, TTU 7 | -1.38 | 48.8% | -6.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 13 Started Drive at: TTU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 4.37 = -1.38 Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.37) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 79 yards Win Probability (Before): 48.8% Win Probability (After): 42.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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Scoring Plays [show/hide]
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:40 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 19) Tahj Brooks run for 19 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) - MSST 0, TTU 7 | 2.22 | 30.9% | 5.9% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 99 Started Drive at: TTU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.78 = 2.22 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.78) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 30.9% Win Probability (After): 36.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 3:03 | |
(4th & 3 at MSST 13) Jonathan Garibay 31 yd FG GOOD - MSST 0, TTU 10 | 0.00 | 47.7% | 7.5% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 13 Started Drive at: TTU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.00 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.00) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 79 yards Win Probability (Before): 47.7% Win Probability (After): 55.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 14:08 | |
(3rd & 7 at TTU 17) Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 17 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK) - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 3.64 | 64.3% | 6.1% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.36 = 3.64 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.64) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.3% Win Probability (After): 70.4% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:13 | |
(4th & 4 at MSST 8) Jonathan Garibay 26 yd FG GOOD - MSST 7, TTU 13 | 0.41 | 50.0% | 11.2% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8 Started Drive at: MSST 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.59 = 0.41 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.59) Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.0% Win Probability (After): 61.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 9:03 | |
(1st & Goal at MSST 1) Donovan Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) - MSST 7, TTU 20 | 0.50 | 68.0% | 6.2% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: TTU 5 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.50 = 0.50 Score Difference (Before): 6 (12.50) Score Difference (End): 13 (13.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 95 yards Win Probability (Before): 68.0% Win Probability (After): 74.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:02 | |
(3rd & 9 at MSST 14) Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 14 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) - MSST 7, TTU 27 | 3.11 | 91.7% | 5.9% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 99 Started Drive at: TTU 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.89 = 3.11 Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.89) Score Difference (End): 20 (20.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.7% Win Probability (After): 97.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 8:47 | |
(2nd & Goal at MSST 1) SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) - MSST 7, TTU 34 | 0.81 | 99.6% | 0.2% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: TTU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.19 = 0.81 Score Difference (Before): 20 (26.19) Score Difference (End): 27 (27.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 85 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.6% Win Probability (After): 99.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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All Plays [show/hide]
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at TTU 35) Scott Goodman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MSST 0, TTU 0 | 0.00 | 24.0% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: TTU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 24.0% Win Probability (After): 24.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 14:48 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 25) TEXAS TECH Penalty, Illegal Formation (Chadarius Townsend) to the TexTc 20 - MSST 0, TTU 0 | -0.98 | 24.1% | -2.1% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 80 Started Drive at: TTU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.08 - 1.06 = -0.98 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.06) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.08) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 24.1% Win Probability (After): 22.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 14:44 | |
(1st & 15 at TTU 20) SaRodorick Thompson run for 6 yds to the TexTc 26 - MSST 0, TTU 0 | 0.14 | 22.3% | 0.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 74 Started Drive at: TTU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.47 - 0.33 = 0.14 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.33) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.3% Win Probability (After): 23.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:49 | |
(2nd & 9 at TTU 26) SaRodorick Thompson run for 33 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 0 | 3.02 | 22.6% | 5.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 41 Started Drive at: TTU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.51 - 0.49 = 3.02 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.49) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.51) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.6% Win Probability (After): 28.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:30 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 41) SaRodorick Thompson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 37 - MSST 0, TTU 0 | -0.21 | 28.9% | -1.2% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 37 Started Drive at: TTU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.29 - 3.50 = -0.21 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.50) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.29) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 43 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.9% Win Probability (After): 27.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:16 | |
(2nd & 6 at MSST 37) Donovan Smith pass incomplete - MSST 0, TTU 0 | -1.00 | 28.4% | -2.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 37 Started Drive at: TTU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.26 - 3.27 = -1.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.27) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.26) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 43 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.4% Win Probability (After): 26.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:12 | |
(3rd & 6 at MSST 37) Tahj Brooks run for 8 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 0 | 1.90 | 25.8% | 3.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 29 Started Drive at: TTU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.17 - 2.26 = 1.90 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.26) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.17) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.8% Win Probability (After): 29.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 12:54 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 29) Tahj Brooks run for 10 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 0 | 0.59 | 28.9% | 1.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 19 Started Drive at: TTU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.75 - 4.16 = 0.59 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.16) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.75) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 61 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.9% Win Probability (After): 30.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 12:40 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 19) Tahj Brooks run for 19 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) - MSST 0, TTU 7 | 2.22 | 30.9% | 5.9% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 99 Started Drive at: TTU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.78 = 2.22 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.78) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 30.9% Win Probability (After): 36.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 12:40 | |
(Kickoff at MSST 35) Trey Wolff kickoff for 60 yds , Lideatrick Griffin return for 20 yds to the MisSt 25 - MSST 0, TTU 7 | -1.03 | 66.0% | -0.8% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.20 - -0.18 = -1.03 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.18) Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.20) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 66.0% Win Probability (After): 65.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 12:32 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 25) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk - MSST 0, TTU 7 | -0.57 | 65.5% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.75 - -0.18 = -0.57 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.18) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.75) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.5% Win Probability (After): 64.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 12:23 | |
(2nd & 10 at MSST 25) Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 34 - MSST 0, TTU 7 | 1.16 | 63.0% | 2.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.41 - -0.75 = 1.16 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.75) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.59) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 63.0% Win Probability (After): 65.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 11:59 | |
(3rd & 1 at MSST 34) Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 7 | 0.60 | 64.2% | 1.5% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 62 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.97 - 0.37 = 0.60 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.63) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.03) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.2% Win Probability (After): 65.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 11:19 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 38) Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 45 - MSST 0, TTU 7 | 0.60 | 67.2% | 0.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 55 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 0.96 = 0.60 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.04) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.44) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.2% Win Probability (After): 67.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 10:48 | |
(2nd & 3 at MSST 45) Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 11 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 7 | 0.60 | 69.3% | 0.6% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 44 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.28 - 1.68 = 0.60 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.32) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.72) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 69.3% Win Probability (After): 69.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 10:24 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 44) Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 48 - MSST 0, TTU 7 | -1.42 | 71.6% | -4.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 48 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 2.45 = -1.42 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.55) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 71.6% Win Probability (After): 67.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 9:43 | |
(2nd & 14 at TTU 48) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin - MSST 0, TTU 7 | -1.25 | 66.3% | -0.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.15 - 1.10 = -1.25 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.90) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.15) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 66.3% Win Probability (After): 65.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 9:38 | |
(3rd & 14 at TTU 48) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin - MSST 0, TTU 7 | -1.25 | 63.4% | -1.3% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.36 - -0.12 = -1.25 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.12) Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 63.4% Win Probability (After): 62.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 9:27 | |
(4th & 14 at TTU 48) Archer Trafford punt for 40 yds, downed at the TexTc 8 - MSST 0, TTU 7 | 0.40 | 61.8% | 0.2% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 92 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.08 - -1.48 = 0.40 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.48) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.08) Change of Possession: 1 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.8% Win Probability (After): 62.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 9:22 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 8) SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the TexTc 9 - MSST 0, TTU 7 | -0.59 | 37.9% | 0.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 91 Started Drive at: TTU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - 1.05 = -0.59 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.05) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.46) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 37.9% Win Probability (After): 38.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 8:59 | |
(2nd & 9 at TTU 9) Donovan Smith run for 11 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 7 | 1.47 | 38.4% | 1.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 80 Started Drive at: TTU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.96 - 0.49 = 1.47 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.49) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.96) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 38.4% Win Probability (After): 39.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 8:25 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 20) SaRodorick Thompson run for 11 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 7 | 0.74 | 40.2% | 0.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 69 Started Drive at: TTU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.66 - 1.93 = 0.74 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.93) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.66) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.2% Win Probability (After): 41.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 8:10 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 31) SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the TexTc 33 - MSST 0, TTU 7 | -0.62 | 40.9% | -0.5% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 67 Started Drive at: TTU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.96 - 2.58 = -0.62 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.58) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.96) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.9% Win Probability (After): 40.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:28 | |
(2nd & 8 at TTU 33) Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger - MSST 0, TTU 7 | -0.87 | 42.0% | -3.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67 Started Drive at: TTU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 1.89 = -0.87 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.89) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.01) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 42.0% Win Probability (After): 38.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:19 | |
(3rd & 8 at TTU 33) Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 12 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 7 | 2.16 | 40.3% | 5.4% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 55 Started Drive at: TTU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.21 - 1.05 = 2.16 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.05) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.21) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 37 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.3% Win Probability (After): 45.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:02 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 45) Tahj Brooks run for 11 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 7 | 0.52 | 45.4% | 0.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 44 Started Drive at: TTU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.84 - 3.32 = 0.52 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.32) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.84) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 48 yards Win Probability (Before): 45.4% Win Probability (After): 46.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 6:26 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 44) Tahj Brooks run for 12 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 7 | 0.69 | 48.7% | -2.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 32 Started Drive at: TTU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.51 - 3.82 = 0.69 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.82) Score Difference (End): 7 (11.51) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 60 yards Win Probability (Before): 48.7% Win Probability (After): 46.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 6:03 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 32) Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 12 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 7 | 0.52 | 50.2% | 0.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 20 Started Drive at: TTU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.01 - 4.49 = 0.52 Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.49) Score Difference (End): 7 (12.01) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 72 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.2% Win Probability (After): 50.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 5:31 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 20) Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the MisSt 14 - MSST 0, TTU 7 | 0.20 | 51.6% | 0.2% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 14 Started Drive at: TTU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.23 - 5.03 = 0.20 Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.03) Score Difference (End): 7 (12.23) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 78 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.6% Win Probability (After): 51.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 5:25 | |
(2nd & 4 at MSST 14) SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 12 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 22 - MSST 0, TTU 7 | -1.21 | 51.5% | -1.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 22 Started Drive at: TTU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.02 - 5.25 = -1.21 Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.23) Score Difference (End): 7 (11.02) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 70 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.5% Win Probability (After): 49.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 4:30 | |
(2nd & 12 at MSST 22) Donovan Smith run for 7 yds to the MisSt 15 - MSST 0, TTU 7 | 0.29 | 42.5% | 7.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 15 Started Drive at: TTU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.33 - 4.04 = 0.29 Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.04) Score Difference (End): 7 (11.33) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 77 yards Win Probability (Before): 42.5% Win Probability (After): 50.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 3:42 | |
(3rd & 5 at MSST 15) Xavier White run for 2 yds to the MisSt 13 - MSST 0, TTU 7 | -1.38 | 48.8% | -6.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 13 Started Drive at: TTU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 4.37 = -1.38 Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.37) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 7 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 79 yards Win Probability (Before): 48.8% Win Probability (After): 42.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 3:03 | |
(4th & 3 at MSST 13) Jonathan Garibay 31 yd FG GOOD - MSST 0, TTU 10 | 0.00 | 47.7% | 7.5% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 13 Started Drive at: TTU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.00 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.00) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 79 yards Win Probability (Before): 47.7% Win Probability (After): 55.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 3:03 | |
(Kickoff at MSST 35) Trey Wolff kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MSST 0, TTU 10 | 0.00 | 54.8% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 0.05 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.95) Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.95) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.8% Win Probability (After): 54.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 2:55 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 25) Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 10 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 10 | 1.04 | 54.4% | 0.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.06 - 0.02 = 1.04 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.98) Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.94) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.4% Win Probability (After): 54.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 2:27 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 35) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 18 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 10 | 1.25 | 55.5% | 2.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 47 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 1.05 = 1.25 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.95) Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.71) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 28 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.5% Win Probability (After): 57.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 1:54 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 47) Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 9 yds to the TexTc 38 - MSST 0, TTU 10 | 0.86 | 58.9% | 0.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 38 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.21 - 2.35 = 0.86 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.65) Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.79) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 37 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.9% Win Probability (After): 59.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 1:34 | |
(2nd & 1 at TTU 38) Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 10 | -0.39 | 57.4% | 2.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 37 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.91 - 3.30 = -0.39 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.70) Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 38 yards Win Probability (Before): 57.4% Win Probability (After): 59.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 1:03 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 37) Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 38 - MSST 0, TTU 10 | -0.99 | 57.6% | -2.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 38 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 2.99 = -0.99 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.01) Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 37 yards Win Probability (Before): 57.6% Win Probability (After): 55.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 0:30 | |
(2nd & 11 at TTU 38) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara Thomas - MSST 0, TTU 10 | -1.03 | 55.0% | -2.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 38 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - 2.02 = -1.03 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.98) Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.01) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 37 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.0% Win Probability (After): 52.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 0:21 | |
(3rd & 11 at TTU 38) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 18 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 10 | 3.30 | 52.5% | 6.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 20 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 1.00 = 3.30 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.00) Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.71) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.5% Win Probability (After): 59.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 14:56 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 20) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon Johnson - MSST 0, TTU 10 | -0.55 | 63.0% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.71 - 4.26 = -0.55 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.74) Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.29) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 63.0% Win Probability (After): 62.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 14:49 | |
(2nd & 10 at TTU 20) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 3 yds to the TexTc 17 - MSST 0, TTU 10 | -0.31 | 63.6% | -2.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 17 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.39 - 3.70 = -0.31 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.30) Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.61) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 0, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 58 yards Win Probability (Before): 63.6% Win Probability (After): 61.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 14:08 | |
(3rd & 7 at TTU 17) Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 17 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK) - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 3.64 | 64.3% | 6.1% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.36 = 3.64 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.64) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.3% Win Probability (After): 70.4% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 14:08 | |
(Kickoff at TTU 35) Scott Goodman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 0.00 | 34.7% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: TTU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.45 - 1.45 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.45) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.45) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 34.7% Win Probability (After): 34.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 13:58 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 25) Kaylon Geiger run for 4 yds to the TexTc 29 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -0.09 | 34.5% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71 Started Drive at: TTU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 1.45 = -0.09 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.45) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 34.5% Win Probability (After): 34.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 13:25 | |
(2nd & 6 at TTU 29) Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 27 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -1.36 | 34.6% | -2.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 73 Started Drive at: TTU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 1.36 = -1.36 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.36) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.01) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 34.6% Win Probability (After): 32.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 12:50 | |
(3rd & 8 at TTU 27) Donovan Smith sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 21 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -1.75 | 31.8% | -3.6% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 79 Started Drive at: TTU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.72 - 0.03 = -1.75 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.03) Score Difference (End): 3 (1.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.8% Win Probability (After): 28.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 12:06 | |
(4th & 14 at TTU 21) Austin McNamara punt for 61 yds , Jaden Walley returns for 8 yds to the MisSt 26 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 0.56 | 27.5% | -1.6% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 74 Started Drive at: TTU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.08 - -1.63 = 0.56 Score Difference (Before): 3 (1.37) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.92) Change of Possession: 1 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.5% Win Probability (After): 25.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 12:00 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 26) Will Rogers run for no gain to the MisSt 26 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -0.87 | 71.2% | -1.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74 Started Drive at: MSST 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 1.21 = -0.87 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.79) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.65) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 71.2% Win Probability (After): 69.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 11:19 | |
(2nd & 10 at MSST 26) Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 34 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 0.69 | 69.1% | 1.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 66 Started Drive at: MSST 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 0.38 = 0.69 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.62) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.93) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 69.1% Win Probability (After): 70.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:43 | |
(3rd & 2 at MSST 34) Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 35 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -1.25 | 69.5% | -2.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 65 Started Drive at: MSST 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.26 - 0.99 = -1.25 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.01) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.26) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 69.5% Win Probability (After): 67.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:11 | |
(4th & 1 at MSST 35) MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (LaQuinston Sharp) to the MisSt 30 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -1.22 | 68.9% | -5.6% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 70 Started Drive at: MSST 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.37 - -0.15 = -1.22 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.15) Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.37) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 68.9% Win Probability (After): 63.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 9:49 | |
(4th & 6 at MSST 30) Archer Trafford punt for 53 yds, downed at the TexTc 17 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 0.09 | 63.9% | 2.7% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 83 Started Drive at: MSST 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.21 - -1.30 = 0.09 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.30) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.21) Change of Possession: 1 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 63.9% Win Probability (After): 66.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 9:44 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 17) SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the TexTc 18 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -0.55 | 36.9% | -2.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 82 Started Drive at: TTU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.59 - 1.14 = -0.55 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.14) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.59) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 36.9% Win Probability (After): 34.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 9:02 | |
(2nd & 9 at TTU 18) Donovan Smith pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 12 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 1.44 | 31.1% | 6.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 70 Started Drive at: TTU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 0.43 = 1.44 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.43) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.87) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.1% Win Probability (After): 38.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 8:26 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 30) Xavier White run for 3 yds to the TexTc 33 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -0.40 | 32.4% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 67 Started Drive at: TTU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.24 - 1.64 = -0.40 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.64) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.24) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.4% Win Probability (After): 32.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 7:42 | |
(2nd & 7 at TTU 33) Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 6 yds to the TexTc 39 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 0.45 | 32.2% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 61 Started Drive at: TTU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.61 - 1.16 = 0.45 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.16) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.61) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.2% Win Probability (After): 32.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 7:12 | |
(3rd & 1 at TTU 39) Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 0.61 | 34.9% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 57 Started Drive at: TTU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.34 - 1.74 = 0.61 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.74) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.34) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 34.9% Win Probability (After): 34.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 6:50 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 43) Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 06:50 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 0.00 | 36.0% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57 Started Drive at: TTU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.34 - 2.34 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.34) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.34) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 36.0% Win Probability (After): 36.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 6:45 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 43) Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles Price - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -0.60 | 38.4% | -1.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57 Started Drive at: TTU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.85 - 2.45 = -0.60 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.45) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.85) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 38.4% Win Probability (After): 37.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 6:35 | |
(2nd & 10 at TTU 43) Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the TexTc 43 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -0.68 | 38.0% | -2.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57 Started Drive at: TTU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - 1.83 = -0.68 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.83) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.15) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 38.0% Win Probability (After): 35.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 5:58 | |
(3rd & 10 at TTU 43) Donovan Smith pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 18 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 2.55 | 33.8% | 7.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 39 Started Drive at: TTU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 0.90 = 2.55 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.90) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.45) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 44 yards Win Probability (Before): 33.8% Win Probability (After): 41.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 5:16 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 39) Donovan Smith pass incomplete - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -0.44 | 39.5% | -1.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39 Started Drive at: TTU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.88 - 3.33 = -0.44 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.33) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.88) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 44 yards Win Probability (Before): 39.5% Win Probability (After): 38.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 5:10 | |
(2nd & 10 at MSST 39) SaRodorick Thompson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 33 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 0.19 | 38.8% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 33 Started Drive at: TTU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.05 - 2.86 = 0.19 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.86) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.05) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 38.8% Win Probability (After): 38.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 4:25 | |
(3rd & 4 at MSST 33) Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Trey Cleveland - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -1.62 | 40.8% | -5.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33 Started Drive at: TTU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.42 - 3.04 = -1.62 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.04) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.42) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.8% Win Probability (After): 35.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 4:20 | |
(4th & 4 at MSST 33) Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 2 yds to the MisSt 31 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -2.73 | 36.7% | -3.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 69 Started Drive at: TTU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.29 - 1.43 = -2.73 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.43) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.71) Change of Possession: 1 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 52 yards Win Probability (Before): 36.7% Win Probability (After): 32.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 4:13 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 31) Will Rogers sacked by Colin Schooler for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 30 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -0.65 | 66.9% | -2.7% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 70 Started Drive at: MSST 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 1.08 = -0.65 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.92) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.56) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 66.9% Win Probability (After): 64.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 3:34 | |
(2nd & 11 at MSST 30) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -0.79 | 63.8% | -2.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70 Started Drive at: MSST 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - 0.39 = -0.79 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.61) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.40) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 63.8% Win Probability (After): 61.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 3:34 | |
(3rd & 11 at MSST 30) Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 03:34 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 0.00 | 60.3% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70 Started Drive at: MSST 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - -0.40 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.40) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.40) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.3% Win Probability (After): 60.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 3:31 | |
(3rd & 11 at MSST 30) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin Williams - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -0.94 | 60.1% | -5.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70 Started Drive at: MSST 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.16 - -0.22 = -0.94 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.22) Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.1% Win Probability (After): 54.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 3:21 | |
(4th & 11 at MSST 30) Archer Trafford punt for 39 yds , Adrian Frye returns for 5 yds to the TexTc 36 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -0.47 | 53.1% | 8.0% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 64 Started Drive at: MSST 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.67 - -1.20 = -0.47 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.20) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.67) Change of Possession: 1 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.1% Win Probability (After): 61.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 3:13 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 36) Myles Price run for 13 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 0.44 | 38.7% | 1.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 51 Started Drive at: TTU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 1.63 = 0.44 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.63) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.07) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 38.7% Win Probability (After): 40.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 2:49 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 49) Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds to the MisSt 44 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 0.47 | 40.2% | 1.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 44 Started Drive at: TTU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 1.96 = 0.47 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.96) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.2% Win Probability (After): 41.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 2:19 | |
(2nd & 3 at MSST 44) SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 42 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -0.16 | 41.4% | -1.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 42 Started Drive at: TTU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 2.16 = -0.16 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.16) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 41.4% Win Probability (After): 39.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 1:52 | |
(3rd & 1 at MSST 42) Tahj Brooks run for 9 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 1.31 | 42.2% | 0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 33 Started Drive at: TTU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.69 = 1.31 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.69) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 42.2% Win Probability (After): 42.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 1:28 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 33) TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Travis Koontz) to the MisSt 38 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -0.92 | 46.4% | -3.3% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 38 Started Drive at: TTU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.77 - 2.69 = -0.92 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.69) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.77) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.4% Win Probability (After): 43.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 1:13 | |
(1st & 15 at MSST 38) Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 40 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -0.57 | 44.8% | -2.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 40 Started Drive at: TTU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 1.72 = -0.57 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.72) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.14) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 44.8% Win Probability (After): 42.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:45 | |
(2nd & 17 at MSST 40) Donovan Smith pass incomplete - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -0.26 | 44.1% | -3.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40 Started Drive at: TTU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.92 - 1.19 = -0.26 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.19) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 44.1% Win Probability (After): 41.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:42 | |
(3rd & 17 at MSST 40) Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles Price - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -0.56 | 42.2% | -3.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40 Started Drive at: TTU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 0.94 = -0.56 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.94) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.38) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 42.2% Win Probability (After): 38.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:31 | |
(4th & 17 at MSST 40) Austin McNamara punt for 27 yds , Austin Williams returns for 1 yd to the MisSt 14 Austin Williams fumbled, recovered by TexTc Tyrique Matthews - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 3.61 | 38.7% | 14.5% |
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Play Type: Punt Team Fumble Recovery Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 14 Started Drive at: TTU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.09 - 0.49 = 3.61 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.49) Score Difference (End): 3 (7.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 38.7% Win Probability (After): 53.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 0:27 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 14) Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles Price - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -0.28 | 54.5% | -1.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14 Started Drive at: MSST 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.63 - 3.92 = -0.28 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.92) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.63) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.5% Win Probability (After): 52.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:21 | |
(2nd & 10 at MSST 14) Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the MisSt 8 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 0.35 | 54.3% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 8 Started Drive at: MSST 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.76 - 3.41 = 0.35 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.41) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.76) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.3% Win Probability (After): 54.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:21 | |
(3rd & 4 at MSST 8) Timeout TEXAS TECH, clock 00:21 - MSST 7, TTU 10 | 0.00 | 54.5% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8 Started Drive at: MSST 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.76 - 3.76 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.76) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.76) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.5% Win Probability (After): 54.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:16 | |
(3rd & 4 at MSST 8) Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Mason Tharp - MSST 7, TTU 10 | -0.99 | 54.2% | -4.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8 Started Drive at: MSST 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.62 - 3.61 = -0.99 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.61) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.62) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.2% Win Probability (After): 49.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:13 | |
(4th & 4 at MSST 8) Jonathan Garibay 26 yd FG GOOD - MSST 7, TTU 13 | 0.41 | 50.0% | 11.2% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8 Started Drive at: MSST 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.59 = 0.41 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.59) Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.0% Win Probability (After): 61.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 0:13 | |
(Kickoff at MSST 35) Trey Wolff kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MSST 7, TTU 13 | 0.00 | 49.1% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.08 - 0.08 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.92) Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.1% Win Probability (After): 49.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:06 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 25) Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 10 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 13 | 0.11 | 48.6% | 0.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.16 - 0.05 = 0.11 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.95) Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.84) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards Win Probability (Before): 48.6% Win Probability (After): 49.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:01 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 35) Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 00:01 - MSST 7, TTU 13 | 0.00 | 48.2% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.16 - 0.16 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.84) Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.84) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards Win Probability (Before): 48.2% Win Probability (After): 48.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:00 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 35) Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 8 yds to the MisSt 43 - MSST 7, TTU 13 | -0.04 | 49.5% | -1.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 57 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 0.04 = -0.04 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.96) Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.80) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.5% Win Probability (After): 48.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at MSST 35) Trey Wolff kickoff for 62 yds , Jo'quavious Marks return for 17 yds to the MisSt 20 - MSST 7, TTU 13 | -1.40 | 48.5% | -1.6% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80 Started Drive at: MSST 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.09 - 0.31 = -1.40 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.69) Score Difference (End): -6 (-7.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 48.5% Win Probability (After): 46.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:48 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 20) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 3 yds to the MisSt 23 - MSST 7, TTU 13 | -0.80 | 54.1% | -6.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 77 Started Drive at: MSST 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.41 - 0.39 = -0.80 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.61) Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.41) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.1% Win Probability (After): 47.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:25 | |
(2nd & 7 at MSST 23) Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 9 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 13 | 1.47 | 53.0% | 3.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 68 Started Drive at: MSST 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.37 - -0.10 = 1.47 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.10) Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.63) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.0% Win Probability (After): 56.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 13:53 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 32) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 8 yds to the MisSt 40 - MSST 7, TTU 13 | 0.52 | 55.3% | 1.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 60 Started Drive at: MSST 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.94 - 1.42 = 0.52 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.58) Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.06) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.3% Win Probability (After): 56.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 13:12 | |
(2nd & 2 at MSST 40) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley - MSST 7, TTU 13 | -0.82 | 55.2% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60 Started Drive at: MSST 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 1.96 = -0.82 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.04) Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.87) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.2% Win Probability (After): 55.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 13:07 | |
(3rd & 2 at MSST 40) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon Johnson - MSST 7, TTU 13 | -1.83 | 54.2% | -4.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60 Started Drive at: MSST 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.76 - 1.07 = -1.83 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.93) Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.76) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.2% Win Probability (After): 49.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:58 | |
(4th & 2 at MSST 40) Archer Trafford punt for 43 yds , Adrian Frye returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 15 - MSST 7, TTU 13 | -0.42 | 50.2% | -3.3% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 85 Started Drive at: MSST 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.15 - -0.73 = -0.42 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.73) Score Difference (End): 6 (7.15) Change of Possession: 1 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.2% Win Probability (After): 46.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 12:53 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 15) Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the TexTc 17 - MSST 7, TTU 13 | -0.66 | 54.2% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 83 Started Drive at: TTU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.54 - 1.20 = -0.66 Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.20) Score Difference (End): 6 (6.54) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.2% Win Probability (After): 53.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:20 | |
(2nd & 8 at TTU 17) Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles Price - MSST 7, TTU 13 | -0.91 | 54.9% | -3.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 83 Started Drive at: TTU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.37 - 0.54 = -0.91 Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.54) Score Difference (End): 6 (5.63) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.9% Win Probability (After): 51.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:14 | |
(3rd & 8 at TTU 17) Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles Price - MSST 7, TTU 13 | -1.30 | 53.5% | -3.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 83 Started Drive at: TTU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.63 - -0.33 = -1.30 Score Difference (Before): 6 (5.67) Score Difference (End): 6 (4.37) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.5% Win Probability (After): 49.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 11:57 | |
(4th & 8 at TTU 17) Austin McNamara punt for 36 yds , Jaden Walley returns for no gain to the MisSt 17 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MisSt 37 - MSST 7, TTU 13 | -0.02 | 49.8% | -5.3% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 63 Started Drive at: TTU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.65 - -1.49 = -0.02 Score Difference (Before): 6 (4.37) Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.35) Change of Possession: 1 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.8% Win Probability (After): 44.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 11:52 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 37) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley - MSST 7, TTU 13 | -0.53 | 55.3% | -2.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63 Started Drive at: MSST 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.04 - 1.56 = -0.53 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.44) Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.96) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.3% Win Probability (After): 53.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 11:46 | |
(2nd & 10 at MSST 37) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 11 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 13 | 1.32 | 53.4% | 3.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 52 Started Drive at: MSST 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.30 - 0.97 = 1.32 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.03) Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.70) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.4% Win Probability (After): 56.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 11:27 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 48) MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Nick Jones) to the MisSt 43 - MSST 7, TTU 13 | -0.78 | 56.9% | -2.6% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 57 Started Drive at: MSST 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.42 - 2.20 = -0.78 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.80) Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.58) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.9% Win Probability (After): 54.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:56 | |
(1st & 15 at MSST 43) Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 15 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 13 | 1.52 | 54.2% | 4.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 42 Started Drive at: MSST 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.91 - 1.40 = 1.52 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.60) Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.2% Win Probability (After): 58.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:26 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 42) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks - MSST 7, TTU 13 | -0.67 | 59.5% | -2.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 42 Started Drive at: MSST 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 3.06 = -0.67 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.94) Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.61) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.5% Win Probability (After): 56.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:16 | |
(2nd & 10 at TTU 42) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley - MSST 7, TTU 13 | -1.13 | 55.2% | 0.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 42 Started Drive at: MSST 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.42 - 2.56 = -1.13 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.44) Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.58) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.2% Win Probability (After): 55.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:11 | |
(3rd & 10 at TTU 42) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk - MSST 7, TTU 13 | -1.76 | 51.6% | -2.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 42 Started Drive at: MSST 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - 1.36 = -1.76 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.64) Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.40) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.6% Win Probability (After): 48.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:03 | |
(4th & 10 at TTU 42) Archer Trafford punt for 37 yds, downed at the TexTc 5 - MSST 7, TTU 13 | 0.26 | 48.0% | -5.2% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 95 Started Drive at: MSST 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.37 - -0.64 = 0.26 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.64) Score Difference (End): 6 (6.37) Change of Possession: 1 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 48.0% Win Probability (After): 42.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 9:52 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 5) Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 39 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 13 | 2.34 | 55.8% | 3.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 95 -> 56 Started Drive at: TTU 5 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.76 - 0.42 = 2.34 Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.42) Score Difference (End): 6 (8.76) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 1 play, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.8% Win Probability (After): 59.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 9:32 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 44) SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 47 - MSST 7, TTU 13 | -0.30 | 58.2% | 0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 53 Started Drive at: TTU 5 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.42 - 2.72 = -0.30 Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.72) Score Difference (End): 6 (8.42) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.2% Win Probability (After): 58.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 9:19 | |
(2nd & 7 at TTU 47) Donovan Smith pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 52 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 13 | 4.20 | 58.5% | 6.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 1 Started Drive at: TTU 5 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.51 - 2.31 = 4.20 Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.31) Score Difference (End): 6 (12.51) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 13 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 94 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.5% Win Probability (After): 64.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 9:03 | |
(1st & Goal at MSST 1) Donovan Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) - MSST 7, TTU 20 | 0.50 | 68.0% | 6.2% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: TTU 5 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.50 = 0.50 Score Difference (Before): 6 (12.50) Score Difference (End): 13 (13.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 95 yards Win Probability (Before): 68.0% Win Probability (After): 74.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 9:03 | |
(Kickoff at MSST 35) Trey Wolff kickoff for 56 yds , Jo'quavious Marks return for 15 yds to the MisSt 24 - MSST 7, TTU 20 | -1.15 | 29.9% | -1.9% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 76 Started Drive at: MSST 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.03 - 0.12 = -1.15 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-12.88) Score Difference (End): -13 (-14.03) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.9% Win Probability (After): 28.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 8:48 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 24) Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 17 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 20 | 1.79 | 28.9% | 5.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 59 Started Drive at: MSST 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.55 - -0.24 = 1.79 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-13.24) Score Difference (End): -13 (-11.45) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 1 play, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.9% Win Probability (After): 34.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 8:15 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 41) Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 1 yd to the MisSt 42 - MSST 7, TTU 20 | -0.67 | 31.3% | 2.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 58 Started Drive at: MSST 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.81 - 1.48 = -0.67 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-11.52) Score Difference (End): -13 (-12.19) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.3% Win Probability (After): 33.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 7:36 | |
(2nd & 9 at MSST 42) Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 3 yds to the MisSt 45 - MSST 7, TTU 20 | -0.47 | 26.2% | 0.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 55 Started Drive at: MSST 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.48 - 0.95 = -0.47 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-12.05) Score Difference (End): -13 (-12.52) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.2% Win Probability (After): 26.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 6:47 | |
(3rd & 6 at MSST 45) Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 10 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 20 | 1.95 | 24.4% | 5.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 45 Started Drive at: MSST 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.46 - 0.52 = 1.95 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-12.48) Score Difference (End): -13 (-10.54) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 24.4% Win Probability (After): 29.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 6:20 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 45) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 5 yds to the TexTc 40 - MSST 7, TTU 20 | 0.23 | 29.8% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 40 Started Drive at: MSST 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.70 - 2.48 = 0.23 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-10.52) Score Difference (End): -13 (-10.30) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.8% Win Probability (After): 29.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 5:42 | |
(2nd & 5 at TTU 40) Rogers, Will pass incomplete to Thomas, Rara, PENALTY TEXASTECH pass interference (Fields, DaMarcus) 15 yards to the TEXASTECH25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE. - MSST 7, TTU 20 | 1.21 | 31.4% | 0.4% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 25 Started Drive at: MSST 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.89 - 2.69 = 1.21 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-10.31) Score Difference (End): -13 (-9.11) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.4% Win Probability (After): 31.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 5:37 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 25) Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the TexTc 20 - MSST 7, TTU 20 | 0.27 | 32.9% | 1.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 20 Started Drive at: MSST 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.19 - 3.92 = 0.27 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-9.08) Score Difference (End): -13 (-8.81) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.9% Win Probability (After): 34.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 4:59 | |
(2nd & 5 at TTU 20) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara Thomas - MSST 7, TTU 20 | -0.77 | 33.1% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20 Started Drive at: MSST 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 4.24 = -0.77 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-8.76) Score Difference (End): -13 (-9.53) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 33.1% Win Probability (After): 32.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 4:52 | |
(3rd & 5 at TTU 20) Will Rogers sacked by Tyree Wilson for a loss of 11 yards to the TexTc 31 - MSST 7, TTU 20 | -3.56 | 32.5% | -11.4% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 31 Started Drive at: MSST 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 3.49 = -3.56 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-9.51) Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.07) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 30 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.5% Win Probability (After): 21.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 4:06 | |
(4th & 16 at TTU 31) Will Rogers sacked by Tyree Wilson for a loss of 9 yards to the TexTc 40 - MSST 7, TTU 20 | -2.75 | 21.0% | -5.6% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 60 Started Drive at: MSST 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.83 - -0.08 = -2.75 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-13.08) Score Difference (End): 13 (15.83) Change of Possession: 1 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 21 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.0% Win Probability (After): 15.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 3:59 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 40) Kaylon Geiger run for 7 yds to the TexTc 47 - MSST 7, TTU 20 | 0.36 | 87.9% | 0.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 53 Started Drive at: TTU 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.18 - 2.82 = 0.36 Score Difference (Before): 13 (15.82) Score Difference (End): 13 (16.18) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 87.9% Win Probability (After): 88.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 3:35 | |
(2nd & 3 at TTU 47) Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 20 | 0.12 | 89.3% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 50 Started Drive at: TTU 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.26 - 3.14 = 0.12 Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.14) Score Difference (End): 13 (16.26) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards Win Probability (Before): 89.3% Win Probability (After): 89.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 2:55 | |
(1st & 10 at 50) Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 15 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 20 | 0.72 | 89.7% | 0.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 35 Started Drive at: TTU 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.99 - 3.28 = 0.72 Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.28) Score Difference (End): 13 (16.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 89.7% Win Probability (After): 90.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 2:32 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 35) Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 32 - MSST 7, TTU 20 | -0.25 | 90.3% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 32 Started Drive at: TTU 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.81 - 4.05 = -0.25 Score Difference (Before): 13 (17.05) Score Difference (End): 13 (16.81) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards Win Probability (Before): 90.3% Win Probability (After): 90.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 2:14 | |
(2nd & 7 at MSST 32) Donovan Smith run for 17 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 20 | 1.42 | 90.2% | 1.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 15 Started Drive at: TTU 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.24 - 3.82 = 1.42 Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.82) Score Difference (End): 13 (18.24) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 90.2% Win Probability (After): 91.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 1:52 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 15) TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Weston Wright) to the MisSt 20 - MSST 7, TTU 20 | -0.75 | 92.0% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 20 Started Drive at: TTU 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.48 - 5.23 = -0.75 Score Difference (Before): 13 (18.23) Score Difference (End): 13 (17.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 92.0% Win Probability (After): 91.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 1:33 | |
(1st & 15 at MSST 20) Kaylon Geiger run for 7 yds to the MisSt 13 - MSST 7, TTU 20 | 0.22 | 91.3% | 0.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 13 Started Drive at: TTU 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.70 - 4.48 = 0.22 Score Difference (Before): 13 (17.48) Score Difference (End): 13 (17.70) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.3% Win Probability (After): 91.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:49 | |
(2nd & 8 at MSST 13) Myles Price run for 2 yds to the MisSt 11 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mason Tharp) to the MisSt 21 - MSST 7, TTU 20 | -0.88 | 92.3% | -1.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 21 Started Drive at: TTU 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.82 - 4.70 = -0.88 Score Difference (Before): 13 (17.70) Score Difference (End): 13 (16.82) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 44 yards Win Probability (Before): 92.3% Win Probability (After): 90.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:44 | |
(2nd & 16 at MSST 21) Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds to the MisSt 14 - MSST 7, TTU 20 | 0.10 | 90.9% | 0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 14 Started Drive at: TTU 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.91 - 3.81 = 0.10 Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.81) Score Difference (End): 13 (16.91) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 20 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 90.9% Win Probability (After): 91.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:02 | |
(3rd & 9 at MSST 14) Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 14 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) - MSST 7, TTU 27 | 3.11 | 91.7% | 5.9% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 99 Started Drive at: TTU 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.89 = 3.11 Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.89) Score Difference (End): 20 (20.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.7% Win Probability (After): 97.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:02 | |
(Kickoff at MSST 35) Trey Wolff kickoff for 59 yds , Jo'quavious Marks return for 22 yds to the MisSt 28 - MSST 7, TTU 27 | -0.90 | 2.4% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 72 Started Drive at: MSST 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.25 - -0.36 = -0.90 Score Difference (Before): -20 (-20.36) Score Difference (End): -20 (-21.25) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.4% Win Probability (After): 2.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 14:55 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 28) Jo'quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the MisSt 34 - MSST 7, TTU 27 | 0.35 | 2.5% | 0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 66 Started Drive at: MSST 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.00 = 0.35 Score Difference (Before): -20 (-20.00) Score Difference (End): -20 (-19.65) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.5% Win Probability (After): 2.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 14:33 | |
(2nd & 4 at MSST 34) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks - MSST 7, TTU 27 | -0.70 | 2.5% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66 Started Drive at: MSST 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.39 - 0.31 = -0.70 Score Difference (Before): -20 (-19.69) Score Difference (End): -20 (-20.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.5% Win Probability (After): 2.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 14:27 | |
(3rd & 4 at MSST 34) Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 14 yds to the MisSt 48 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Nick Jones) to the MisSt 33 - MSST 7, TTU 27 | -0.49 | 2.2% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 67 Started Drive at: MSST 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.88 - -0.44 = -0.49 Score Difference (Before): -20 (-20.39) Score Difference (End): -20 (-20.88) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.2% Win Probability (After): 2.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 14:00 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 33) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the MisSt 38 - MSST 7, TTU 27 | 0.04 | 2.5% | 0.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 62 Started Drive at: MSST 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 0.35 = 0.04 Score Difference (Before): -20 (-19.65) Score Difference (End): -20 (-19.62) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 10 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.5% Win Probability (After): 2.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:42 | |
(2nd & 5 at MSST 38) Will Rogers pass incomplete - MSST 7, TTU 27 | -0.78 | 2.5% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62 Started Drive at: MSST 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - 0.38 = -0.78 Score Difference (Before): -20 (-19.62) Score Difference (End): -20 (-20.40) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 10 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.5% Win Probability (After): 2.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:35 | |
(3rd & 5 at MSST 38) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 9 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 27 | 1.71 | 2.3% | 0.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 53 Started Drive at: MSST 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.29 - -0.42 = 1.71 Score Difference (Before): -20 (-20.42) Score Difference (End): -20 (-18.71) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.3% Win Probability (After): 2.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:16 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 47) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rufus Harvey - MSST 7, TTU 27 | -0.63 | 2.7% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53 Started Drive at: MSST 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - 1.28 = -0.63 Score Difference (Before): -20 (-18.72) Score Difference (End): -20 (-19.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.7% Win Probability (After): 2.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:06 | |
(2nd & 10 at MSST 47) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the TexTc 46 - MSST 7, TTU 27 | 0.42 | 2.4% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 46 Started Drive at: MSST 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.06 - 0.64 = 0.42 Score Difference (Before): -20 (-19.36) Score Difference (End): -20 (-18.94) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.4% Win Probability (After): 2.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 12:29 | |
(3rd & 3 at TTU 46) Will Rogers pass intercepted Eric Monroe return for no gain to the TexTc 15 - MSST 7, TTU 27 | -3.15 | 2.3% | -1.0% |
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Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 85 Started Drive at: MSST 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.17 - 0.98 = -3.15 Score Difference (Before): -20 (-19.02) Score Difference (End): 20 (22.17) Change of Possession: 1 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.3% Win Probability (After): 1.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 12:22 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 15) Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the TexTc 20 - MSST 7, TTU 27 | -0.16 | 99.0% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 80 Started Drive at: TTU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.98 - 2.14 = -0.16 Score Difference (Before): 20 (22.14) Score Difference (End): 20 (21.98) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.0% Win Probability (After): 99.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 12:00 | |
(2nd & 5 at TTU 20) Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 48 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 27 | 2.40 | 99.0% | 0.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 32 Started Drive at: TTU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.42 - 2.01 = 2.40 Score Difference (Before): 20 (22.01) Score Difference (End): 20 (24.42) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 53 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.0% Win Probability (After): 99.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 11:41 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 32) Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger - MSST 7, TTU 27 | -0.51 | 99.3% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 32 Started Drive at: TTU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.85 - 4.37 = -0.51 Score Difference (Before): 20 (24.37) Score Difference (End): 20 (23.85) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 53 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.3% Win Probability (After): 99.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 11:31 | |
(2nd & 10 at MSST 32) Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 19 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 27 | 1.42 | 99.3% | 0.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 13 Started Drive at: TTU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.25 - 3.83 = 1.42 Score Difference (Before): 20 (23.83) Score Difference (End): 20 (25.25) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 72 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.3% Win Probability (After): 99.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 11:10 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 13) Xavier White run for 4 yds to the MisSt 9 - MSST 7, TTU 27 | -0.18 | 99.4% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 9 Started Drive at: TTU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.05 - 5.23 = -0.18 Score Difference (Before): 20 (25.23) Score Difference (End): 20 (25.05) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 76 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.4% Win Probability (After): 99.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 10:09 | |
(2nd & 6 at MSST 9) SaRodorick Thompson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 27 | 1.30 | 99.4% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 2 Started Drive at: TTU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.30 - 5.00 = 1.30 Score Difference (Before): 20 (25.00) Score Difference (End): 20 (26.30) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 83 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.4% Win Probability (After): 99.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 9:27 | |
(1st & Goal at MSST 2) SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1 - MSST 7, TTU 27 | -0.11 | 99.6% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 1 Started Drive at: TTU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.20 - 6.31 = -0.11 Score Difference (Before): 20 (26.31) Score Difference (End): 20 (26.20) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 27 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 84 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.6% Win Probability (After): 99.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 8:47 | |
(2nd & Goal at MSST 1) SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) - MSST 7, TTU 34 | 0.81 | 99.6% | 0.2% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: TTU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.19 = 0.81 Score Difference (Before): 20 (26.19) Score Difference (End): 27 (27.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 85 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.6% Win Probability (After): 99.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 8:47 | |
(Kickoff at MSST 35) Trey Wolff kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MSST 7, TTU 34 | 0.00 | 0.4% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.31 - -0.31 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-27.31) Score Difference (End): -27 (-27.31) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.4% Win Probability (After): 0.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 8:41 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 25) Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 11 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 34 | 0.77 | 0.4% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 64 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - -0.31 = 0.77 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-27.31) Score Difference (End): -27 (-26.54) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.4% Win Probability (After): 0.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 8:15 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 36) Dillon Johnson run for 30 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 34 | 1.88 | 0.3% | 0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 34 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 0.52 = 1.88 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-26.48) Score Difference (End): -27 (-24.60) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.3% Win Probability (After): 0.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 7:45 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 34) Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the TexTc 32 - MSST 7, TTU 34 | -0.58 | 0.4% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 32 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.91 - 2.49 = -0.58 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-24.51) Score Difference (End): -27 (-25.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 43 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.4% Win Probability (After): 0.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 7:14 | |
(2nd & 8 at TTU 32) Will Rogers sacked by Tony Bradford Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the TexTc 42 - MSST 7, TTU 34 | -2.18 | 0.3% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 42 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 2.16 = -2.18 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-24.84) Score Difference (End): -27 (-27.02) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.3% Win Probability (After): 0.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 6:25 | |
(3rd & 18 at TTU 42) Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds Dillon Johnson fumbled, recovered by TexTc DaMarcus Fields - MSST 7, TTU 34 | -2.83 | 0.3% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 64 Started Drive at: MSST 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.38 - 0.44 = -2.83 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-26.56) Score Difference (End): 27 (29.38) Change of Possession: 1 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.3% Win Probability (After): 0.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 6:19 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 36) Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 2 yds to the TexTc 38 - MSST 7, TTU 34 | -0.47 | 99.9% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 62 Started Drive at: TTU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.69 - 2.16 = -0.47 Score Difference (Before): 27 (29.16) Score Difference (End): 27 (28.69) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.9% Win Probability (After): 99.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 5:37 | |
(2nd & 8 at TTU 38) Xavier White run for 1 yd to the TexTc 39 - MSST 7, TTU 34 | -0.36 | 99.9% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 61 Started Drive at: TTU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 1.38 = -0.36 Score Difference (Before): 27 (28.38) Score Difference (End): 27 (28.02) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.9% Win Probability (After): 99.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 4:55 | |
(3rd & 7 at TTU 39) Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Dalton Rigdon - MSST 7, TTU 34 | -0.88 | 99.9% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61 Started Drive at: TTU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 0.87 = -0.88 Score Difference (Before): 27 (27.87) Score Difference (End): 27 (26.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.9% Win Probability (After): 99.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 4:38 | |
(4th & 7 at TTU 39) Austin McNamara punt for 60 yds, downed at the MisSt 1 - MSST 7, TTU 34 | 0.95 | 99.9% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 99 Started Drive at: TTU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 0.00 = 0.95 Score Difference (Before): 27 (27.00) Score Difference (End): -27 (-27.95) Change of Possession: 1 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.9% Win Probability (After): 99.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 4:32 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 1) Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 2 - MSST 7, TTU 34 | -0.39 | 0.1% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 99 -> 98 Started Drive at: MSST 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.29 - -0.90 = -0.39 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-27.90) Score Difference (End): -27 (-28.29) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.1% Win Probability (After): 0.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 3:45 | |
(2nd & 9 at MSST 2) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the MisSt 10 - MSST 7, TTU 34 | 0.54 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 90 Started Drive at: MSST 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.66 - -1.19 = 0.54 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-28.19) Score Difference (End): -27 (-27.66) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.1% Win Probability (After): 0.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 3:09 | |
(3rd & 1 at MSST 10) Jo'quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 34 | 0.57 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 81 Started Drive at: MSST 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.15 - -0.41 = 0.57 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-27.41) Score Difference (End): -27 (-26.85) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.1% Win Probability (After): 0.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 2:43 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 19) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks - MSST 7, TTU 34 | -0.44 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 81 Started Drive at: MSST 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.14 - 0.30 = -0.44 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-26.70) Score Difference (End): -27 (-27.14) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.1% Win Probability (After): 0.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 2:32 | |
(2nd & 10 at MSST 19) Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 28 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 34 | 1.54 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 53 Started Drive at: MSST 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - -0.01 = 1.54 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-27.01) Score Difference (End): -27 (-25.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 46 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.1% Win Probability (After): 0.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 2:07 | |
(1st & 10 at MSST 47) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks - MSST 7, TTU 34 | -0.45 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53 Started Drive at: MSST 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - 1.60 = -0.45 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-25.40) Score Difference (End): -27 (-25.85) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 46 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.1% Win Probability (After): 0.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 2:02 | |
(2nd & 10 at MSST 47) Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49 - MSST 7, TTU 34 | -0.42 | 0.1% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 51 Started Drive at: MSST 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - 1.21 = -0.42 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-25.79) Score Difference (End): -27 (-26.21) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 48 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.1% Win Probability (After): 0.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 1:25 | |
(3rd & 8 at MSST 49) Will Rogers run for 4 yds to the TexTc 47 - MSST 7, TTU 34 | -0.43 | 0.1% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 47 Started Drive at: MSST 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - 0.65 = -0.43 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-26.35) Score Difference (End): -27 (-26.78) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 52 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.1% Win Probability (After): 0.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 1:16 | |
(4th & 4 at TTU 47) Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 4 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 34 | 1.32 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 43 Started Drive at: MSST 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - 0.32 = 1.32 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-26.68) Score Difference (End): -27 (-25.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 56 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.1% Win Probability (After): 0.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 0:54 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 43) Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 44 - MSST 7, TTU 34 | -0.43 | 0.1% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 44 Started Drive at: MSST 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 1.44 = -0.43 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-25.56) Score Difference (End): -27 (-25.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.1% Win Probability (After): 0.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 0:52 | |
(2nd & 11 at TTU 44) Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 00:52 - MSST 7, TTU 34 | 0.00 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44 Started Drive at: MSST 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 1.01 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-25.99) Score Difference (End): -27 (-25.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.1% Win Probability (After): 0.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 0:47 | |
(2nd & 11 at TTU 44) Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 6 yds to the TexTc 38 - MSST 7, TTU 34 | 0.62 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 38 Started Drive at: MSST 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - 0.91 = 0.62 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-26.09) Score Difference (End): -27 (-25.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 61 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.1% Win Probability (After): 0.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 0:19 | |
(3rd & 5 at TTU 38) Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 8 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 34 | 1.56 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 30 Started Drive at: MSST 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.73 - 1.17 = 1.56 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-25.83) Score Difference (End): -27 (-24.27) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 69 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.1% Win Probability (After): 0.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 0:01 | |
(1st & 10 at TTU 30) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks - MSST 7, TTU 34 | 0.88 | 0.3% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30 Started Drive at: MSST 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.04 - 1.16 = 0.88 Score Difference (Before): -27 (-25.84) Score Difference (End): -27 (-24.96) Change of Possession: 0 Score: MSST 7, TTU 34 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 69 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.3% Win Probability (After): 0.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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