Mississippi St 7 @ Texas Tech 34

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 4.54 | Odds: MSST -10, O/U 58.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

Download Chart

Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 344 ESPN team id 2641
Total Plays 8580
Total EPA -12.2518.28
  Offensive EPA -6.8315.42
  Special Teams EPA -4.625.51
  Penalty EPA -1.23-4.93
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 0.432.28
Production ESPN team id 344 ESPN team id 2641
Scrimmage Plays 7372
  Yards 329492
  Yards/Play 4.516.83
  EPA -6.8315.42
  EPA/Play -0.090.21
Passes 57 (78%)29 (40%)
  Yards 290252
  Yards/Play 5.098.69
  EPA -7.215.70
  EPA/Play -0.130.20
Rushes 16 (22%)43 (60%)
  Yards 85266
  Yards/Play 5.316.19
  EPA 0.389.72
  EPA/Play 0.020.23
Rushing ESPN team id 344 ESPN team id 2641
Scrimmage Plays 7372
Rushes 16 (22%)43 (60%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 2 (12%)2 (5%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 2 (100%)2 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 2 (12%)2 (5%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 7 (44%)14 (33%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 9 (56%)26 (60%)
OL Line Yards 32.289.6
  Per Carry 2.012.08
Highlight Yards 29.581
  Per Rush Opportunity 3.283.12
Explosiveness ESPN team id 344 ESPN team id 2641
Total Plays 8580
Scrimmage Plays 7372
Explosive Plays 3 (4%)7 (10%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 2 (4%)4 (14%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 1 (6%)3 (7%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -15.65-3.99
  EPA/Play -0.22-0.06
  When Passing -14.15-6.57
    EPA/Play -0.25-0.23
  When Rushing -1.502.57
    EPA/Play -0.100.06
Situational ESPN team id 344 ESPN team id 2641
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 32 (44%)36 (50%)
  When Passing 24 (42%)12 (41%)
  When Rushing 8 (50%)24 (56%)
  On Standard Downs 20 (43%)24 (49%)
  On Passing Downs 12 (44%)12 (52%)
  On Early Downs 24 (44%)30 (52%)
  On Late Downs 8 (42%)6 (43%)
  During "Middle 8" 4 (36%)4 (31%)
Early Downs 5458
  First Downs Created 12 (22%)17 (29%)
  EPA -1.2514.97
  EPA/Play -0.020.26
  Passes 42 (78%)19 (33%)
  Rushes 12 (22%)39 (67%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 18 (43%)9 (47%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 6 (50%)21 (54%)
"Middle 8" Plays 1113
  EPA -2.32-3.13
  EPA/play -0.21-0.24
  Passes 11 (100%)7 (54%)
  Rushes 0 (0%)6 (46%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 4 (36%)0 (0%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 0 (0%)4 (67%)
Drives ESPN team id 344 ESPN team id 2641
Total 1111
Avg Starting Field Position Own 22Own 24
Plays/Drive 8.268.67
Yards/Drive 39.5555.07
Available Yards % 51%72%
Defensive ESPN team id 344 ESPN team id 2641
Scrimmage Plays 7273
Stop Rate 39%53%
Havoc Plays Created 5 (7%)9 (12%)
  Passing 2 (7%)8 (14%)
  Rushing 3 (7%)1 (6%)
TFLs Generated 58
  Passing 27
  Rushing 31
Sacks Generated 1 (3%)4 (7%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 01
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 344 ESPN team id 2641
Turnovers 30
  Fumbles 20
  Fumbles Lost 20
  Fumbles Recovered 00
  Interceptions 10
Turnover Margin -33
Expected Turnovers 1.21.0
Expected Turnover Margin -0.20.2
Turnover Luck (pts) -13.913.9
Special Teams ESPN team id 344 ESPN team id 2641
Total Plays 12 8
Total EPA -4.62 5.51
  Field Goal EPA 0 0.42
  Punting EPA -0.14 5.1
  Kickoff Return EPA -4.48 0

Mississippi State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Will Rogers 32/53, 290 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 4 Scks, 55.5 xQBR 5.09 -0.13 -7.21 42% -16.0%
Rush attempts
Dillon Johnson 9 carries, 62 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.89 0.22 1.96 67% 0.0%
Jo'quavious Marks 5 carries, 19 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.80 -0.06 -0.28 40% 2.0%
Will Rogers 2 carries, 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.65 -1.30 0% -2.0%
Pass targets
Austin Williams 5 catches (6 targets), 74 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.80 0.57 3.43 67% 0.0%
Rara Thomas 2 catches (4 targets), 32 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.00 0.84 3.36 50% 8.0%
Jo'quavious Marks 4 catches (9 targets), 38 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.50 0.32 2.92 56% 4.0%
Caleb Ducking 2 catches (2 targets), 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.50 1.21 2.42 100% 1.0%
Makai Polk 7 catches (9 targets), 57 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.14 0.18 1.60 56% -5.0%
Jamire Calvin 4 catches (4 targets), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.50 0.21 0.84 50% 2.0%
Rufus Harvey 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.63 -0.63 0% 0.0%
Lideatrick Griffin 2 catches (4 targets), 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 -0.38 -1.51 25% -3.0%
Jaden Walley 3 catches (7 targets), 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 -0.38 -2.69 29% -2.0%
Dillon Johnson 3 catches (5 targets), 26 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 8.67 -0.78 -3.88 20% 0.0%

Texas Tech [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Donovan Smith 15/28, 252 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 64.7 xQBR 8.69 0.20 5.70 41% -5.0%
Rush attempts
Tahj Brooks 16 carries, 107 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.69 0.37 5.87 69% 5.0%
Donovan Smith 4 carries, 36 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 0.92 3.68 100% 17.0%
SaRodorick Thompson 14 carries, 80 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.71 0.17 2.44 43% 1.0%
Kaylon Geiger 3 carries, 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.16 0.48 67% 0.0%
Myles Price 2 carries, 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.50 -0.22 -0.45 50% -1.0%
Xavier White 4 carries, 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.50 -0.58 -2.31 0% -7.0%
Pass targets
Jerand Bradley 2 catches (2 targets), 64 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 32.00 2.82 5.63 100% 13.0%
J.J. Sparkman 2 catches (2 targets), 29 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.50 1.91 3.83 100% 7.0%
Travis Koontz 2 catches (2 targets), 41 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 20.50 0.94 1.87 50% 4.0%
Myles Price 3 catches (8 targets), 72 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 24.00 0.18 1.43 38% -8.0%
Xavier White 1 catch (1 target), 19 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 19.00 1.42 1.42 100% 0.0%
Trey Cleveland 1 catch (2 targets), 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 18.00 0.47 0.94 50% 2.0%
Dalton Rigdon 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.88 -0.88 0% 0.0%
Mason Tharp 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.99 -0.99 0% -4.0%
Kaylon Geiger 4 catches (6 targets), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.25 -0.69 -4.12 33% -10.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q3 9:19 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 7 at TTU 47) Donovan Smith pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 52 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 13 4.20 58.5% 6.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 1

Started Drive at: TTU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.51 - 2.31 = 4.20

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.31)

Score Difference (End): 6 (12.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 94 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.5%

Win Probability (After): 64.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:08 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 7 at TTU 17) Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 17 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK) - MSST 7, TTU 10 3.64 64.3% 6.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.36 = 3.64

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.64)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.3%

Win Probability (After): 70.4%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:31 ESPN team id 2641 (4th & 17 at MSST 40) Austin McNamara punt for 27 yds , Austin Williams returns for 1 yd to the MisSt 14 Austin Williams fumbled, recovered by TexTc Tyrique Matthews - MSST 7, TTU 10 3.61 38.7% 14.5%

Play Type: Punt Team Fumble Recovery

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 14

Started Drive at: TTU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.09 - 0.49 = 3.61

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.49)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.7%

Win Probability (After): 53.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 4:52 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 5 at TTU 20) Will Rogers sacked by Tyree Wilson for a loss of 11 yards to the TexTc 31 - MSST 7, TTU 20 -3.56 32.5% -11.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 31

Started Drive at: MSST 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 3.49 = -3.56

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-9.51)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.5%

Win Probability (After): 21.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:21 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 11 at TTU 38) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 18 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 10 3.30 52.5% 6.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 20

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 1.00 = 3.30

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.00)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.5%

Win Probability (After): 59.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:29 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 3 at TTU 46) Will Rogers pass intercepted Eric Monroe return for no gain to the TexTc 15 - MSST 7, TTU 27 -3.15 2.3% -1.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 85

Started Drive at: MSST 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.17 - 0.98 = -3.15

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-19.02)

Score Difference (End): 20 (22.17)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:02 ESPN team id 2641 (3rd & 9 at MSST 14) Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 14 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) - MSST 7, TTU 27 3.11 91.7% 5.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 99

Started Drive at: TTU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.89 = 3.11

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.89)

Score Difference (End): 20 (20.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.7%

Win Probability (After): 97.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:49 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 9 at TTU 26) SaRodorick Thompson run for 33 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 0 3.02 22.6% 5.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 41

Started Drive at: TTU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.51 - 0.49 = 3.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.6%

Win Probability (After): 28.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:25 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 18 at TTU 42) Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds Dillon Johnson fumbled, recovered by TexTc DaMarcus Fields - MSST 7, TTU 34 -2.83 0.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 64

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.38 - 0.44 = -2.83

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-26.56)

Score Difference (End): 27 (29.38)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:06 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 16 at TTU 31) Will Rogers sacked by Tyree Wilson for a loss of 9 yards to the TexTc 40 - MSST 7, TTU 20 -2.75 21.0% -5.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 60

Started Drive at: MSST 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.83 - -0.08 = -2.75

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-13.08)

Score Difference (End): 13 (15.83)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.0%

Win Probability (After): 15.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 0:31 ESPN team id 2641 (4th & 17 at MSST 40) Austin McNamara punt for 27 yds , Austin Williams returns for 1 yd to the MisSt 14 Austin Williams fumbled, recovered by TexTc Tyrique Matthews - MSST 7, TTU 10 3.61 38.7% 14.5%

Play Type: Punt Team Fumble Recovery

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 14

Started Drive at: TTU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.09 - 0.49 = 3.61

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.49)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.7%

Win Probability (After): 53.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 4:52 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 5 at TTU 20) Will Rogers sacked by Tyree Wilson for a loss of 11 yards to the TexTc 31 - MSST 7, TTU 20 -3.56 32.5% -11.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 31

Started Drive at: MSST 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 3.49 = -3.56

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-9.51)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.5%

Win Probability (After): 21.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:13 ESPN team id 2641 (4th & 4 at MSST 8) Jonathan Garibay 26 yd FG GOOD - MSST 7, TTU 13 0.41 50.0% 11.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8

Started Drive at: MSST 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.59 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.59)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.0%

Win Probability (After): 61.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 3:21 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 11 at MSST 30) Archer Trafford punt for 39 yds , Adrian Frye returns for 5 yds to the TexTc 36 - MSST 7, TTU 10 -0.47 53.1% 8.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 64

Started Drive at: MSST 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.67 - -1.20 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.20)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.67)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.1%

Win Probability (After): 61.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:30 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 12 at MSST 22) Donovan Smith run for 7 yds to the MisSt 15 - MSST 0, TTU 7 0.29 42.5% 7.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 15

Started Drive at: TTU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.33 - 4.04 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.04)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.5%

Win Probability (After): 50.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:03 ESPN team id 2641 (4th & 3 at MSST 13) Jonathan Garibay 31 yd FG GOOD - MSST 0, TTU 10 0.00 47.7% 7.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 13

Started Drive at: TTU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.00 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.00)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.7%

Win Probability (After): 55.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:58 ESPN team id 2641 (3rd & 10 at TTU 43) Donovan Smith pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 18 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 10 2.55 33.8% 7.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 39

Started Drive at: TTU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 0.90 = 2.55

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.90)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.8%

Win Probability (After): 41.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:02 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 9 at TTU 18) Donovan Smith pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 12 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 10 1.44 31.1% 6.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 70

Started Drive at: TTU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 0.43 = 1.44

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.43)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.1%

Win Probability (After): 38.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:21 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 11 at TTU 38) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 18 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 10 3.30 52.5% 6.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 20

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 1.00 = 3.30

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.00)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.5%

Win Probability (After): 59.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:42 ESPN team id 2641 (3rd & 5 at MSST 15) Xavier White run for 2 yds to the MisSt 13 - MSST 0, TTU 7 -1.38 48.8% -6.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 13

Started Drive at: TTU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 4.37 = -1.38

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.37)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.8%

Win Probability (After): 42.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 12:40 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at MSST 19) Tahj Brooks run for 19 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) - MSST 0, TTU 7 2.22 30.9% 5.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 99

Started Drive at: TTU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.78 = 2.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.78)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.9%

Win Probability (After): 36.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:03 ESPN team id 2641 (4th & 3 at MSST 13) Jonathan Garibay 31 yd FG GOOD - MSST 0, TTU 10 0.00 47.7% 7.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 13

Started Drive at: TTU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.00 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.00)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.7%

Win Probability (After): 55.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:08 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 7 at TTU 17) Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 17 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK) - MSST 7, TTU 10 3.64 64.3% 6.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.36 = 3.64

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.64)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.3%

Win Probability (After): 70.4%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:13 ESPN team id 2641 (4th & 4 at MSST 8) Jonathan Garibay 26 yd FG GOOD - MSST 7, TTU 13 0.41 50.0% 11.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8

Started Drive at: MSST 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.59 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.59)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.0%

Win Probability (After): 61.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:03 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & Goal at MSST 1) Donovan Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) - MSST 7, TTU 20 0.50 68.0% 6.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: TTU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.50 = 0.50

Score Difference (Before): 6 (12.50)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 95 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.0%

Win Probability (After): 74.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:02 ESPN team id 2641 (3rd & 9 at MSST 14) Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 14 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) - MSST 7, TTU 27 3.11 91.7% 5.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 99

Started Drive at: TTU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.89 = 3.11

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.89)

Score Difference (End): 20 (20.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.7%

Win Probability (After): 97.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:47 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & Goal at MSST 1) SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) - MSST 7, TTU 34 0.81 99.6% 0.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: TTU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.19 = 0.81

Score Difference (Before): 20 (26.19)

Score Difference (End): 27 (27.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2641 (Kickoff at TTU 35) Scott Goodman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MSST 0, TTU 0 0.00 24.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: TTU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.0%

Win Probability (After): 24.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:48 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at TTU 25) TEXAS TECH Penalty, Illegal Formation (Chadarius Townsend) to the TexTc 20 - MSST 0, TTU 0 -0.98 24.1% -2.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 80

Started Drive at: TTU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.08 - 1.06 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.1%

Win Probability (After): 22.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:44 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 15 at TTU 20) SaRodorick Thompson run for 6 yds to the TexTc 26 - MSST 0, TTU 0 0.14 22.3% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 74

Started Drive at: TTU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.47 - 0.33 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.33)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.3%

Win Probability (After): 23.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:49 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 9 at TTU 26) SaRodorick Thompson run for 33 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 0 3.02 22.6% 5.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 41

Started Drive at: TTU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.51 - 0.49 = 3.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.6%

Win Probability (After): 28.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:30 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at MSST 41) SaRodorick Thompson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 37 - MSST 0, TTU 0 -0.21 28.9% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 37

Started Drive at: TTU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.29 - 3.50 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.50)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.9%

Win Probability (After): 27.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:16 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 6 at MSST 37) Donovan Smith pass incomplete - MSST 0, TTU 0 -1.00 28.4% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 37

Started Drive at: TTU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.26 - 3.27 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.27)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.4%

Win Probability (After): 26.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:12 ESPN team id 2641 (3rd & 6 at MSST 37) Tahj Brooks run for 8 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 0 1.90 25.8% 3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 29

Started Drive at: TTU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.17 - 2.26 = 1.90

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.26)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:54 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at MSST 29) Tahj Brooks run for 10 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 0 0.59 28.9% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 19

Started Drive at: TTU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.75 - 4.16 = 0.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.9%

Win Probability (After): 30.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:40 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at MSST 19) Tahj Brooks run for 19 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) - MSST 0, TTU 7 2.22 30.9% 5.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 99

Started Drive at: TTU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.78 = 2.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.78)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.9%

Win Probability (After): 36.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:40 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) Trey Wolff kickoff for 60 yds , Lideatrick Griffin return for 20 yds to the MisSt 25 - MSST 0, TTU 7 -1.03 66.0% -0.8%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.20 - -0.18 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.18)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.0%

Win Probability (After): 65.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:32 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 25) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk - MSST 0, TTU 7 -0.57 65.5% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.75 - -0.18 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.18)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.5%

Win Probability (After): 64.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:23 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 10 at MSST 25) Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 34 - MSST 0, TTU 7 1.16 63.0% 2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.41 - -0.75 = 1.16

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.75)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.0%

Win Probability (After): 65.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:59 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 1 at MSST 34) Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 7 0.60 64.2% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 62

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.97 - 0.37 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.63)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.2%

Win Probability (After): 65.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:19 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 38) Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 45 - MSST 0, TTU 7 0.60 67.2% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 55

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 0.96 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.04)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.2%

Win Probability (After): 67.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:48 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 3 at MSST 45) Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 11 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 7 0.60 69.3% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 44

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.28 - 1.68 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.32)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.3%

Win Probability (After): 69.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:24 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at TTU 44) Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexTc 48 - MSST 0, TTU 7 -1.42 71.6% -4.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 48

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 2.45 = -1.42

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.55)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.6%

Win Probability (After): 67.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:43 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 14 at TTU 48) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin - MSST 0, TTU 7 -1.25 66.3% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.15 - 1.10 = -1.25

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.90)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.3%

Win Probability (After): 65.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:38 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 14 at TTU 48) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick Griffin - MSST 0, TTU 7 -1.25 63.4% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.36 - -0.12 = -1.25

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.12)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.4%

Win Probability (After): 62.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:27 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 14 at TTU 48) Archer Trafford punt for 40 yds, downed at the TexTc 8 - MSST 0, TTU 7 0.40 61.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 92

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.08 - -1.48 = 0.40

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.48)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.08)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.8%

Win Probability (After): 62.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 9:22 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at TTU 8) SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the TexTc 9 - MSST 0, TTU 7 -0.59 37.9% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 91

Started Drive at: TTU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - 1.05 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.05)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.9%

Win Probability (After): 38.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:59 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 9 at TTU 9) Donovan Smith run for 11 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 7 1.47 38.4% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 80

Started Drive at: TTU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.96 - 0.49 = 1.47

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.49)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.4%

Win Probability (After): 39.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:25 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at TTU 20) SaRodorick Thompson run for 11 yds to the TexTc 31 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 7 0.74 40.2% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 69

Started Drive at: TTU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.66 - 1.93 = 0.74

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.93)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.2%

Win Probability (After): 41.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:10 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at TTU 31) SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the TexTc 33 - MSST 0, TTU 7 -0.62 40.9% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 67

Started Drive at: TTU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.96 - 2.58 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.58)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.9%

Win Probability (After): 40.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:28 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 8 at TTU 33) Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger - MSST 0, TTU 7 -0.87 42.0% -3.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: TTU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 1.89 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.89)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.0%

Win Probability (After): 38.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:19 ESPN team id 2641 (3rd & 8 at TTU 33) Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 12 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 7 2.16 40.3% 5.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 55

Started Drive at: TTU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.21 - 1.05 = 2.16

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.05)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.3%

Win Probability (After): 45.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:02 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at TTU 45) Tahj Brooks run for 11 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 7 0.52 45.4% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 44

Started Drive at: TTU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.84 - 3.32 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.32)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.4%

Win Probability (After): 46.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:26 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at MSST 44) Tahj Brooks run for 12 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 7 0.69 48.7% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 32

Started Drive at: TTU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.51 - 3.82 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.82)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.7%

Win Probability (After): 46.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:03 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at MSST 32) Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 12 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 7 0.52 50.2% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 20

Started Drive at: TTU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.01 - 4.49 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.49)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.2%

Win Probability (After): 50.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:31 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at MSST 20) Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the MisSt 14 - MSST 0, TTU 7 0.20 51.6% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 14

Started Drive at: TTU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.23 - 5.03 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.03)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.6%

Win Probability (After): 51.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:25 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 4 at MSST 14) SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 12 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 22 - MSST 0, TTU 7 -1.21 51.5% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 22

Started Drive at: TTU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.02 - 5.25 = -1.21

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.23)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.5%

Win Probability (After): 49.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:30 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 12 at MSST 22) Donovan Smith run for 7 yds to the MisSt 15 - MSST 0, TTU 7 0.29 42.5% 7.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 15

Started Drive at: TTU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.33 - 4.04 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.04)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.5%

Win Probability (After): 50.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:42 ESPN team id 2641 (3rd & 5 at MSST 15) Xavier White run for 2 yds to the MisSt 13 - MSST 0, TTU 7 -1.38 48.8% -6.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 13

Started Drive at: TTU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 4.37 = -1.38

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.37)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 7

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.8%

Win Probability (After): 42.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:03 ESPN team id 2641 (4th & 3 at MSST 13) Jonathan Garibay 31 yd FG GOOD - MSST 0, TTU 10 0.00 47.7% 7.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 13

Started Drive at: TTU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.00 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.00)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.7%

Win Probability (After): 55.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 3:03 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) Trey Wolff kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MSST 0, TTU 10 0.00 54.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.05 - 0.05 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.95)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.8%

Win Probability (After): 54.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:55 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 25) Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 10 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 10 1.04 54.4% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.06 - 0.02 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.98)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.4%

Win Probability (After): 54.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:27 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 35) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 18 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 10 1.25 55.5% 2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 47

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 1.05 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.95)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.5%

Win Probability (After): 57.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:54 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at TTU 47) Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 9 yds to the TexTc 38 - MSST 0, TTU 10 0.86 58.9% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 38

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.21 - 2.35 = 0.86

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.65)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.9%

Win Probability (After): 59.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:34 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 1 at TTU 38) Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 10 -0.39 57.4% 2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 37

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.91 - 3.30 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.70)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.4%

Win Probability (After): 59.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:03 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at TTU 37) Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 38 - MSST 0, TTU 10 -0.99 57.6% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 38

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 2.99 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.01)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.6%

Win Probability (After): 55.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:30 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 11 at TTU 38) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara Thomas - MSST 0, TTU 10 -1.03 55.0% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 38

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - 2.02 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.98)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.0%

Win Probability (After): 52.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:21 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 11 at TTU 38) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 18 yds to the TexTc 20 for a 1ST down - MSST 0, TTU 10 3.30 52.5% 6.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 20

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 1.00 = 3.30

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.00)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.5%

Win Probability (After): 59.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:56 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at TTU 20) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon Johnson - MSST 0, TTU 10 -0.55 63.0% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.71 - 4.26 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.74)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.0%

Win Probability (After): 62.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:49 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 10 at TTU 20) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 3 yds to the TexTc 17 - MSST 0, TTU 10 -0.31 63.6% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 17

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.39 - 3.70 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.30)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 0, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.6%

Win Probability (After): 61.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:08 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 7 at TTU 17) Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 17 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK) - MSST 7, TTU 10 3.64 64.3% 6.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.36 = 3.64

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.64)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.3%

Win Probability (After): 70.4%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:08 ESPN team id 2641 (Kickoff at TTU 35) Scott Goodman kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MSST 7, TTU 10 0.00 34.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: TTU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.45 - 1.45 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.45)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.7%

Win Probability (After): 34.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:58 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at TTU 25) Kaylon Geiger run for 4 yds to the TexTc 29 - MSST 7, TTU 10 -0.09 34.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: TTU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 1.45 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.45)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.5%

Win Probability (After): 34.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:25 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 6 at TTU 29) Tahj Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 27 - MSST 7, TTU 10 -1.36 34.6% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 73

Started Drive at: TTU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 1.36 = -1.36

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.36)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.6%

Win Probability (After): 32.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:50 ESPN team id 2641 (3rd & 8 at TTU 27) Donovan Smith sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 21 - MSST 7, TTU 10 -1.75 31.8% -3.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 79

Started Drive at: TTU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.72 - 0.03 = -1.75

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.03)

Score Difference (End): 3 (1.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.8%

Win Probability (After): 28.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:06 ESPN team id 2641 (4th & 14 at TTU 21) Austin McNamara punt for 61 yds , Jaden Walley returns for 8 yds to the MisSt 26 - MSST 7, TTU 10 0.56 27.5% -1.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 74

Started Drive at: TTU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.08 - -1.63 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): 3 (1.37)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.92)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.5%

Win Probability (After): 25.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 12:00 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 26) Will Rogers run for no gain to the MisSt 26 - MSST 7, TTU 10 -0.87 71.2% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: MSST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 1.21 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.79)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.2%

Win Probability (After): 69.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:19 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 10 at MSST 26) Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 34 - MSST 7, TTU 10 0.69 69.1% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 66

Started Drive at: MSST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 0.38 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.62)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.1%

Win Probability (After): 70.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:43 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 2 at MSST 34) Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 35 - MSST 7, TTU 10 -1.25 69.5% -2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.26 - 0.99 = -1.25

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.01)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.5%

Win Probability (After): 67.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:11 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 1 at MSST 35) MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (LaQuinston Sharp) to the MisSt 30 - MSST 7, TTU 10 -1.22 68.9% -5.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 70

Started Drive at: MSST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.37 - -0.15 = -1.22

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.15)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.9%

Win Probability (After): 63.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:49 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 6 at MSST 30) Archer Trafford punt for 53 yds, downed at the TexTc 17 - MSST 7, TTU 10 0.09 63.9% 2.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 83

Started Drive at: MSST 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.21 - -1.30 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.30)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.21)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.9%

Win Probability (After): 66.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:44 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at TTU 17) SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the TexTc 18 - MSST 7, TTU 10 -0.55 36.9% -2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 82

Started Drive at: TTU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.59 - 1.14 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.14)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.9%

Win Probability (After): 34.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:02 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 9 at TTU 18) Donovan Smith pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 12 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 10 1.44 31.1% 6.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 70

Started Drive at: TTU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 0.43 = 1.44

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.43)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.1%

Win Probability (After): 38.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:26 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at TTU 30) Xavier White run for 3 yds to the TexTc 33 - MSST 7, TTU 10 -0.40 32.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 67

Started Drive at: TTU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.24 - 1.64 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.64)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.4%

Win Probability (After): 32.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:42 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 7 at TTU 33) Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 6 yds to the TexTc 39 - MSST 7, TTU 10 0.45 32.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 61

Started Drive at: TTU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.61 - 1.16 = 0.45

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.16)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.2%

Win Probability (After): 32.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:12 ESPN team id 2641 (3rd & 1 at TTU 39) Tahj Brooks run for 4 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 10 0.61 34.9% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 57

Started Drive at: TTU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.34 - 1.74 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.74)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.9%

Win Probability (After): 34.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:50 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at TTU 43) Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 06:50 - MSST 7, TTU 10 0.00 36.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: TTU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.34 - 2.34 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.34)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.0%

Win Probability (After): 36.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:45 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at TTU 43) Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles Price - MSST 7, TTU 10 -0.60 38.4% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: TTU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.85 - 2.45 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.45)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.4%

Win Probability (After): 37.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:35 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 10 at TTU 43) Tahj Brooks run for no gain to the TexTc 43 - MSST 7, TTU 10 -0.68 38.0% -2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: TTU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - 1.83 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.83)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.0%

Win Probability (After): 35.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:58 ESPN team id 2641 (3rd & 10 at TTU 43) Donovan Smith pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 18 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 10 2.55 33.8% 7.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 39

Started Drive at: TTU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 0.90 = 2.55

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.90)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.8%

Win Probability (After): 41.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:16 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at MSST 39) Donovan Smith pass incomplete - MSST 7, TTU 10 -0.44 39.5% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39

Started Drive at: TTU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.88 - 3.33 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.33)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.5%

Win Probability (After): 38.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:10 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 10 at MSST 39) SaRodorick Thompson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 33 - MSST 7, TTU 10 0.19 38.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 33

Started Drive at: TTU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.05 - 2.86 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.86)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.8%

Win Probability (After): 38.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:25 ESPN team id 2641 (3rd & 4 at MSST 33) Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Trey Cleveland - MSST 7, TTU 10 -1.62 40.8% -5.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33

Started Drive at: TTU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.42 - 3.04 = -1.62

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.04)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.8%

Win Probability (After): 35.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:20 ESPN team id 2641 (4th & 4 at MSST 33) Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 2 yds to the MisSt 31 - MSST 7, TTU 10 -2.73 36.7% -3.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 69

Started Drive at: TTU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.29 - 1.43 = -2.73

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.43)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.71)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.7%

Win Probability (After): 32.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 4:13 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 31) Will Rogers sacked by Colin Schooler for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 30 - MSST 7, TTU 10 -0.65 66.9% -2.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 70

Started Drive at: MSST 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 1.08 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.92)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.9%

Win Probability (After): 64.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:34 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 11 at MSST 30) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley - MSST 7, TTU 10 -0.79 63.8% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: MSST 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - 0.39 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.61)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.8%

Win Probability (After): 61.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:34 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 11 at MSST 30) Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 03:34 - MSST 7, TTU 10 0.00 60.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: MSST 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - -0.40 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.40)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.3%

Win Probability (After): 60.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:31 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 11 at MSST 30) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin Williams - MSST 7, TTU 10 -0.94 60.1% -5.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: MSST 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.16 - -0.22 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.22)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.1%

Win Probability (After): 54.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:21 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 11 at MSST 30) Archer Trafford punt for 39 yds , Adrian Frye returns for 5 yds to the TexTc 36 - MSST 7, TTU 10 -0.47 53.1% 8.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 64

Started Drive at: MSST 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.67 - -1.20 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.20)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.67)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.1%

Win Probability (After): 61.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 3:13 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at TTU 36) Myles Price run for 13 yds to the TexTc 49 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 10 0.44 38.7% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 51

Started Drive at: TTU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 1.63 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.63)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.7%

Win Probability (After): 40.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 2:49 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at TTU 49) Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds to the MisSt 44 - MSST 7, TTU 10 0.47 40.2% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 44

Started Drive at: TTU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 1.96 = 0.47

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.96)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.2%

Win Probability (After): 41.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 2:19 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 3 at MSST 44) SaRodorick Thompson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 42 - MSST 7, TTU 10 -0.16 41.4% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 42

Started Drive at: TTU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 2.16 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.16)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.4%

Win Probability (After): 39.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:52 ESPN team id 2641 (3rd & 1 at MSST 42) Tahj Brooks run for 9 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 10 1.31 42.2% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 33

Started Drive at: TTU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.69 = 1.31

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.69)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.2%

Win Probability (After): 42.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:28 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at MSST 33) TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Travis Koontz) to the MisSt 38 - MSST 7, TTU 10 -0.92 46.4% -3.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 38

Started Drive at: TTU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.77 - 2.69 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.69)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.4%

Win Probability (After): 43.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 1:13 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 15 at MSST 38) Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 40 - MSST 7, TTU 10 -0.57 44.8% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 40

Started Drive at: TTU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 1.72 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.72)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.8%

Win Probability (After): 42.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:45 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 17 at MSST 40) Donovan Smith pass incomplete - MSST 7, TTU 10 -0.26 44.1% -3.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40

Started Drive at: TTU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.92 - 1.19 = -0.26

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.19)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.1%

Win Probability (After): 41.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:42 ESPN team id 2641 (3rd & 17 at MSST 40) Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles Price - MSST 7, TTU 10 -0.56 42.2% -3.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40

Started Drive at: TTU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 0.94 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.94)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.2%

Win Probability (After): 38.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:31 ESPN team id 2641 (4th & 17 at MSST 40) Austin McNamara punt for 27 yds , Austin Williams returns for 1 yd to the MisSt 14 Austin Williams fumbled, recovered by TexTc Tyrique Matthews - MSST 7, TTU 10 3.61 38.7% 14.5%

Play Type: Punt Team Fumble Recovery

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 14

Started Drive at: TTU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.09 - 0.49 = 3.61

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.49)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.7%

Win Probability (After): 53.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:27 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at MSST 14) Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles Price - MSST 7, TTU 10 -0.28 54.5% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: MSST 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.63 - 3.92 = -0.28

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.92)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.5%

Win Probability (After): 52.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:21 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 10 at MSST 14) Tahj Brooks run for 6 yds to the MisSt 8 - MSST 7, TTU 10 0.35 54.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 8

Started Drive at: MSST 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.76 - 3.41 = 0.35

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.41)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.3%

Win Probability (After): 54.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:21 ESPN team id 2641 (3rd & 4 at MSST 8) Timeout TEXAS TECH, clock 00:21 - MSST 7, TTU 10 0.00 54.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8

Started Drive at: MSST 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.76 - 3.76 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.76)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.5%

Win Probability (After): 54.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:16 ESPN team id 2641 (3rd & 4 at MSST 8) Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Mason Tharp - MSST 7, TTU 10 -0.99 54.2% -4.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8

Started Drive at: MSST 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.62 - 3.61 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.61)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.2%

Win Probability (After): 49.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:13 ESPN team id 2641 (4th & 4 at MSST 8) Jonathan Garibay 26 yd FG GOOD - MSST 7, TTU 13 0.41 50.0% 11.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8

Started Drive at: MSST 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.59 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.59)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.0%

Win Probability (After): 61.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:13 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) Trey Wolff kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MSST 7, TTU 13 0.00 49.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.08 - 0.08 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.92)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.1%

Win Probability (After): 49.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:06 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 25) Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 10 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 13 0.11 48.6% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.16 - 0.05 = 0.11

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.95)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.6%

Win Probability (After): 49.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:01 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 35) Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 00:01 - MSST 7, TTU 13 0.00 48.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.16 - 0.16 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.84)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.2%

Win Probability (After): 48.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 35) Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 8 yds to the MisSt 43 - MSST 7, TTU 13 -0.04 49.5% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 57

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 0.04 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.96)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.5%

Win Probability (After): 48.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) Trey Wolff kickoff for 62 yds , Jo'quavious Marks return for 17 yds to the MisSt 20 - MSST 7, TTU 13 -1.40 48.5% -1.6%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 80

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.09 - 0.31 = -1.40

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.69)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-7.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 46.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:48 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 20) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 3 yds to the MisSt 23 - MSST 7, TTU 13 -0.80 54.1% -6.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 77

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.41 - 0.39 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.61)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.1%

Win Probability (After): 47.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:25 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 7 at MSST 23) Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 9 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 13 1.47 53.0% 3.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 68

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.37 - -0.10 = 1.47

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.10)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.0%

Win Probability (After): 56.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:53 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 32) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 8 yds to the MisSt 40 - MSST 7, TTU 13 0.52 55.3% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 60

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.94 - 1.42 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.58)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.3%

Win Probability (After): 56.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:12 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 2 at MSST 40) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley - MSST 7, TTU 13 -0.82 55.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 1.96 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.04)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.2%

Win Probability (After): 55.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:07 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 2 at MSST 40) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon Johnson - MSST 7, TTU 13 -1.83 54.2% -4.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.76 - 1.07 = -1.83

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.93)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.2%

Win Probability (After): 49.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:58 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 2 at MSST 40) Archer Trafford punt for 43 yds , Adrian Frye returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TexTc 15 - MSST 7, TTU 13 -0.42 50.2% -3.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 85

Started Drive at: MSST 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.15 - -0.73 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.73)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.15)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.2%

Win Probability (After): 46.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 12:53 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at TTU 15) Tahj Brooks run for 2 yds to the TexTc 17 - MSST 7, TTU 13 -0.66 54.2% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 83

Started Drive at: TTU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.54 - 1.20 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.20)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.2%

Win Probability (After): 53.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:20 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 8 at TTU 17) Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles Price - MSST 7, TTU 13 -0.91 54.9% -3.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 83

Started Drive at: TTU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.37 - 0.54 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.54)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.9%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:14 ESPN team id 2641 (3rd & 8 at TTU 17) Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Myles Price - MSST 7, TTU 13 -1.30 53.5% -3.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 83

Started Drive at: TTU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.63 - -0.33 = -1.30

Score Difference (Before): 6 (5.67)

Score Difference (End): 6 (4.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.5%

Win Probability (After): 49.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:57 ESPN team id 2641 (4th & 8 at TTU 17) Austin McNamara punt for 36 yds , Jaden Walley returns for no gain to the MisSt 17 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MisSt 37 - MSST 7, TTU 13 -0.02 49.8% -5.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 63

Started Drive at: TTU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.65 - -1.49 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): 6 (4.37)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.35)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.8%

Win Probability (After): 44.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 11:52 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 37) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley - MSST 7, TTU 13 -0.53 55.3% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.04 - 1.56 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.44)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.3%

Win Probability (After): 53.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:46 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 10 at MSST 37) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 11 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 13 1.32 53.4% 3.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 52

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.30 - 0.97 = 1.32

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.03)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.4%

Win Probability (After): 56.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:27 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 48) MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Nick Jones) to the MisSt 43 - MSST 7, TTU 13 -0.78 56.9% -2.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 57

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.42 - 2.20 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.80)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.9%

Win Probability (After): 54.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:56 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 15 at MSST 43) Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 15 yds to the TexTc 42 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 13 1.52 54.2% 4.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 42

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.91 - 1.40 = 1.52

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.60)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.2%

Win Probability (After): 58.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:26 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at TTU 42) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks - MSST 7, TTU 13 -0.67 59.5% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 42

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 3.06 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.94)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.5%

Win Probability (After): 56.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:16 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 10 at TTU 42) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden Walley - MSST 7, TTU 13 -1.13 55.2% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 42

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.42 - 2.56 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.44)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.2%

Win Probability (After): 55.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:11 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 10 at TTU 42) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Makai Polk - MSST 7, TTU 13 -1.76 51.6% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 42

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - 1.36 = -1.76

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.64)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.6%

Win Probability (After): 48.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:03 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 10 at TTU 42) Archer Trafford punt for 37 yds, downed at the TexTc 5 - MSST 7, TTU 13 0.26 48.0% -5.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 95

Started Drive at: MSST 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.37 - -0.64 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.64)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.37)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.0%

Win Probability (After): 42.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:52 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at TTU 5) Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 39 yds to the TexTc 44 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 13 2.34 55.8% 3.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 95 -> 56

Started Drive at: TTU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.76 - 0.42 = 2.34

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.42)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.8%

Win Probability (After): 59.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:32 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at TTU 44) SaRodorick Thompson run for 3 yds to the TexTc 47 - MSST 7, TTU 13 -0.30 58.2% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 53

Started Drive at: TTU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.42 - 2.72 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.72)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.2%

Win Probability (After): 58.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:19 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 7 at TTU 47) Donovan Smith pass complete to Jerand Bradley for 52 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 13 4.20 58.5% 6.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 1

Started Drive at: TTU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.51 - 2.31 = 4.20

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.31)

Score Difference (End): 6 (12.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 94 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.5%

Win Probability (After): 64.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:03 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & Goal at MSST 1) Donovan Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) - MSST 7, TTU 20 0.50 68.0% 6.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: TTU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.50 = 0.50

Score Difference (Before): 6 (12.50)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 95 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.0%

Win Probability (After): 74.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 13 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:03 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) Trey Wolff kickoff for 56 yds , Jo'quavious Marks return for 15 yds to the MisSt 24 - MSST 7, TTU 20 -1.15 29.9% -1.9%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 76

Started Drive at: MSST 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.03 - 0.12 = -1.15

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-12.88)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-14.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.9%

Win Probability (After): 28.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:48 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 24) Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 17 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 20 1.79 28.9% 5.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 59

Started Drive at: MSST 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.55 - -0.24 = 1.79

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-13.24)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-11.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.9%

Win Probability (After): 34.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:15 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 41) Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 1 yd to the MisSt 42 - MSST 7, TTU 20 -0.67 31.3% 2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 58

Started Drive at: MSST 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.81 - 1.48 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-11.52)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-12.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.3%

Win Probability (After): 33.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:36 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 9 at MSST 42) Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 3 yds to the MisSt 45 - MSST 7, TTU 20 -0.47 26.2% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 55

Started Drive at: MSST 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.48 - 0.95 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-12.05)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-12.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.2%

Win Probability (After): 26.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:47 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 6 at MSST 45) Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 10 yds to the TexTc 45 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 20 1.95 24.4% 5.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 45

Started Drive at: MSST 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.46 - 0.52 = 1.95

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-12.48)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-10.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.4%

Win Probability (After): 29.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:20 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at TTU 45) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 5 yds to the TexTc 40 - MSST 7, TTU 20 0.23 29.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 40

Started Drive at: MSST 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.70 - 2.48 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-10.52)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-10.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:42 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 5 at TTU 40) Rogers, Will pass incomplete to Thomas, Rara, PENALTY TEXASTECH pass interference (Fields, DaMarcus) 15 yards to the TEXASTECH25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE. - MSST 7, TTU 20 1.21 31.4% 0.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 25

Started Drive at: MSST 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.89 - 2.69 = 1.21

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-10.31)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-9.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.4%

Win Probability (After): 31.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:37 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at TTU 25) Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the TexTc 20 - MSST 7, TTU 20 0.27 32.9% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 20

Started Drive at: MSST 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.19 - 3.92 = 0.27

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-9.08)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-8.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.9%

Win Probability (After): 34.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:59 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 5 at TTU 20) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara Thomas - MSST 7, TTU 20 -0.77 33.1% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: MSST 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 4.24 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-8.76)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-9.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.1%

Win Probability (After): 32.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:52 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 5 at TTU 20) Will Rogers sacked by Tyree Wilson for a loss of 11 yards to the TexTc 31 - MSST 7, TTU 20 -3.56 32.5% -11.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 31

Started Drive at: MSST 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 3.49 = -3.56

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-9.51)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.5%

Win Probability (After): 21.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:06 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 16 at TTU 31) Will Rogers sacked by Tyree Wilson for a loss of 9 yards to the TexTc 40 - MSST 7, TTU 20 -2.75 21.0% -5.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 60

Started Drive at: MSST 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.83 - -0.08 = -2.75

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-13.08)

Score Difference (End): 13 (15.83)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.0%

Win Probability (After): 15.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:59 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at TTU 40) Kaylon Geiger run for 7 yds to the TexTc 47 - MSST 7, TTU 20 0.36 87.9% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 53

Started Drive at: TTU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.18 - 2.82 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): 13 (15.82)

Score Difference (End): 13 (16.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.9%

Win Probability (After): 88.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:35 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 3 at TTU 47) Donovan Smith pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 20 0.12 89.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 50

Started Drive at: TTU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.26 - 3.14 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.14)

Score Difference (End): 13 (16.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.3%

Win Probability (After): 89.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:55 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at 50) Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 15 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 20 0.72 89.7% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 35

Started Drive at: TTU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.99 - 3.28 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.28)

Score Difference (End): 13 (16.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.7%

Win Probability (After): 90.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:32 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at MSST 35) Tahj Brooks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 32 - MSST 7, TTU 20 -0.25 90.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 32

Started Drive at: TTU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.81 - 4.05 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): 13 (17.05)

Score Difference (End): 13 (16.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.3%

Win Probability (After): 90.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:14 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 7 at MSST 32) Donovan Smith run for 17 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 20 1.42 90.2% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 15

Started Drive at: TTU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.24 - 3.82 = 1.42

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.82)

Score Difference (End): 13 (18.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.2%

Win Probability (After): 91.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:52 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at MSST 15) TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Weston Wright) to the MisSt 20 - MSST 7, TTU 20 -0.75 92.0% -0.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 20

Started Drive at: TTU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.48 - 5.23 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): 13 (18.23)

Score Difference (End): 13 (17.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.0%

Win Probability (After): 91.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:33 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 15 at MSST 20) Kaylon Geiger run for 7 yds to the MisSt 13 - MSST 7, TTU 20 0.22 91.3% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 13

Started Drive at: TTU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.70 - 4.48 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): 13 (17.48)

Score Difference (End): 13 (17.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.3%

Win Probability (After): 91.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:49 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 8 at MSST 13) Myles Price run for 2 yds to the MisSt 11 TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mason Tharp) to the MisSt 21 - MSST 7, TTU 20 -0.88 92.3% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 21

Started Drive at: TTU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.82 - 4.70 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): 13 (17.70)

Score Difference (End): 13 (16.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.3%

Win Probability (After): 90.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:44 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 16 at MSST 21) Tahj Brooks run for 7 yds to the MisSt 14 - MSST 7, TTU 20 0.10 90.9% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 14

Started Drive at: TTU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.91 - 3.81 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.81)

Score Difference (End): 13 (16.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 20

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.9%

Win Probability (After): 91.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:02 ESPN team id 2641 (3rd & 9 at MSST 14) Donovan Smith pass complete to J.J. Sparkman for 14 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) - MSST 7, TTU 27 3.11 91.7% 5.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 99

Started Drive at: TTU 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.89 = 3.11

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.89)

Score Difference (End): 20 (20.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.7%

Win Probability (After): 97.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 20 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:02 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) Trey Wolff kickoff for 59 yds , Jo'quavious Marks return for 22 yds to the MisSt 28 - MSST 7, TTU 27 -0.90 2.4% -0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 72

Started Drive at: MSST 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.25 - -0.36 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-20.36)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-21.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.4%

Win Probability (After): 2.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:55 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 28) Jo'quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the MisSt 34 - MSST 7, TTU 27 0.35 2.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 66

Started Drive at: MSST 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.00 = 0.35

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-20.00)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-19.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.5%

Win Probability (After): 2.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:33 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 4 at MSST 34) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks - MSST 7, TTU 27 -0.70 2.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: MSST 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.39 - 0.31 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-19.69)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-20.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.5%

Win Probability (After): 2.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:27 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 4 at MSST 34) Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 14 yds to the MisSt 48 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Nick Jones) to the MisSt 33 - MSST 7, TTU 27 -0.49 2.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 67

Started Drive at: MSST 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.88 - -0.44 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-20.39)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-20.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.2%

Win Probability (After): 2.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:00 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 33) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the MisSt 38 - MSST 7, TTU 27 0.04 2.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 62

Started Drive at: MSST 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 0.35 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-19.65)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-19.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.5%

Win Probability (After): 2.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:42 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 5 at MSST 38) Will Rogers pass incomplete - MSST 7, TTU 27 -0.78 2.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: MSST 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - 0.38 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-19.62)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-20.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.5%

Win Probability (After): 2.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:35 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 5 at MSST 38) Will Rogers pass complete to Makai Polk for 9 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 27 1.71 2.3% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 53

Started Drive at: MSST 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.29 - -0.42 = 1.71

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-20.42)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-18.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.3%

Win Probability (After): 2.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:16 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 47) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rufus Harvey - MSST 7, TTU 27 -0.63 2.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: MSST 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - 1.28 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-18.72)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-19.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.7%

Win Probability (After): 2.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:06 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 10 at MSST 47) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the TexTc 46 - MSST 7, TTU 27 0.42 2.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 46

Started Drive at: MSST 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.06 - 0.64 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-19.36)

Score Difference (End): -20 (-18.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.4%

Win Probability (After): 2.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:29 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 3 at TTU 46) Will Rogers pass intercepted Eric Monroe return for no gain to the TexTc 15 - MSST 7, TTU 27 -3.15 2.3% -1.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 85

Started Drive at: MSST 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.17 - 0.98 = -3.15

Score Difference (Before): -20 (-19.02)

Score Difference (End): 20 (22.17)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:22 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at TTU 15) Tahj Brooks run for 5 yds to the TexTc 20 - MSST 7, TTU 27 -0.16 99.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 80

Started Drive at: TTU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.98 - 2.14 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): 20 (22.14)

Score Difference (End): 20 (21.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.0%

Win Probability (After): 99.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 5 at TTU 20) Donovan Smith pass complete to Myles Price for 48 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 27 2.40 99.0% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 32

Started Drive at: TTU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.42 - 2.01 = 2.40

Score Difference (Before): 20 (22.01)

Score Difference (End): 20 (24.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.0%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:41 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at MSST 32) Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger - MSST 7, TTU 27 -0.51 99.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 32

Started Drive at: TTU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.85 - 4.37 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 20 (24.37)

Score Difference (End): 20 (23.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:31 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 10 at MSST 32) Donovan Smith pass complete to Xavier White for 19 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 27 1.42 99.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 13

Started Drive at: TTU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.25 - 3.83 = 1.42

Score Difference (Before): 20 (23.83)

Score Difference (End): 20 (25.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:10 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at MSST 13) Xavier White run for 4 yds to the MisSt 9 - MSST 7, TTU 27 -0.18 99.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 9

Started Drive at: TTU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.05 - 5.23 = -0.18

Score Difference (Before): 20 (25.23)

Score Difference (End): 20 (25.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:09 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 6 at MSST 9) SaRodorick Thompson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 27 1.30 99.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 2

Started Drive at: TTU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.30 - 5.00 = 1.30

Score Difference (Before): 20 (25.00)

Score Difference (End): 20 (26.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:27 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & Goal at MSST 2) SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1 - MSST 7, TTU 27 -0.11 99.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 1

Started Drive at: TTU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.20 - 6.31 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): 20 (26.31)

Score Difference (End): 20 (26.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 27

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:47 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & Goal at MSST 1) SaRodorick Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK) - MSST 7, TTU 34 0.81 99.6% 0.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: TTU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.19 = 0.81

Score Difference (Before): 20 (26.19)

Score Difference (End): 27 (27.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 27 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:47 ESPN team id 344 (Kickoff at MSST 35) Trey Wolff kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - MSST 7, TTU 34 0.00 0.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.31 - -0.31 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-27.31)

Score Difference (End): -27 (-27.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:41 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 25) Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 11 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 34 0.77 0.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 64

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - -0.31 = 0.77

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-27.31)

Score Difference (End): -27 (-26.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:15 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 36) Dillon Johnson run for 30 yds to the TexTc 34 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 34 1.88 0.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 34

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 0.52 = 1.88

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-26.48)

Score Difference (End): -27 (-24.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:45 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at TTU 34) Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the TexTc 32 - MSST 7, TTU 34 -0.58 0.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 32

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.91 - 2.49 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-24.51)

Score Difference (End): -27 (-25.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:14 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 8 at TTU 32) Will Rogers sacked by Tony Bradford Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the TexTc 42 - MSST 7, TTU 34 -2.18 0.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 42

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 2.16 = -2.18

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-24.84)

Score Difference (End): -27 (-27.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:25 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 18 at TTU 42) Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds Dillon Johnson fumbled, recovered by TexTc DaMarcus Fields - MSST 7, TTU 34 -2.83 0.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 64

Started Drive at: MSST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.38 - 0.44 = -2.83

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-26.56)

Score Difference (End): 27 (29.38)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:19 ESPN team id 2641 (1st & 10 at TTU 36) Donovan Smith pass complete to Travis Koontz for 2 yds to the TexTc 38 - MSST 7, TTU 34 -0.47 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 62

Started Drive at: TTU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.69 - 2.16 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 27 (29.16)

Score Difference (End): 27 (28.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:37 ESPN team id 2641 (2nd & 8 at TTU 38) Xavier White run for 1 yd to the TexTc 39 - MSST 7, TTU 34 -0.36 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 61

Started Drive at: TTU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 1.38 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 27 (28.38)

Score Difference (End): 27 (28.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:55 ESPN team id 2641 (3rd & 7 at TTU 39) Donovan Smith pass incomplete to Dalton Rigdon - MSST 7, TTU 34 -0.88 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: TTU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 0.87 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): 27 (27.87)

Score Difference (End): 27 (26.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:38 ESPN team id 2641 (4th & 7 at TTU 39) Austin McNamara punt for 60 yds, downed at the MisSt 1 - MSST 7, TTU 34 0.95 99.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 99

Started Drive at: TTU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 0.00 = 0.95

Score Difference (Before): 27 (27.00)

Score Difference (End): -27 (-27.95)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:32 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 1) Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 2 - MSST 7, TTU 34 -0.39 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 99 -> 98

Started Drive at: MSST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.29 - -0.90 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-27.90)

Score Difference (End): -27 (-28.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:45 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 9 at MSST 2) Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the MisSt 10 - MSST 7, TTU 34 0.54 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 90

Started Drive at: MSST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.66 - -1.19 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-28.19)

Score Difference (End): -27 (-27.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:09 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 1 at MSST 10) Jo'quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 34 0.57 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 81

Started Drive at: MSST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.15 - -0.41 = 0.57

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-27.41)

Score Difference (End): -27 (-26.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:43 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 19) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks - MSST 7, TTU 34 -0.44 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 81

Started Drive at: MSST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.14 - 0.30 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-26.70)

Score Difference (End): -27 (-27.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:32 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 10 at MSST 19) Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 28 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 34 1.54 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 53

Started Drive at: MSST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - -0.01 = 1.54

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-27.01)

Score Difference (End): -27 (-25.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:07 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at MSST 47) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks - MSST 7, TTU 34 -0.45 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: MSST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - 1.60 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-25.40)

Score Difference (End): -27 (-25.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:02 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 10 at MSST 47) Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49 - MSST 7, TTU 34 -0.42 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 51

Started Drive at: MSST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - 1.21 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-25.79)

Score Difference (End): -27 (-26.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:25 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 8 at MSST 49) Will Rogers run for 4 yds to the TexTc 47 - MSST 7, TTU 34 -0.43 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 47

Started Drive at: MSST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - 0.65 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-26.35)

Score Difference (End): -27 (-26.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:16 ESPN team id 344 (4th & 4 at TTU 47) Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 4 yds to the TexTc 43 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 34 1.32 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 43

Started Drive at: MSST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - 0.32 = 1.32

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-26.68)

Score Difference (End): -27 (-25.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:54 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at TTU 43) Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 44 - MSST 7, TTU 34 -0.43 0.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 44

Started Drive at: MSST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 1.44 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-25.56)

Score Difference (End): -27 (-25.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:52 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 11 at TTU 44) Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 00:52 - MSST 7, TTU 34 0.00 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: MSST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 1.01 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-25.99)

Score Difference (End): -27 (-25.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:47 ESPN team id 344 (2nd & 11 at TTU 44) Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 6 yds to the TexTc 38 - MSST 7, TTU 34 0.62 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 38

Started Drive at: MSST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - 0.91 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-26.09)

Score Difference (End): -27 (-25.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:19 ESPN team id 344 (3rd & 5 at TTU 38) Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 8 yds to the TexTc 30 for a 1ST down - MSST 7, TTU 34 1.56 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 30

Started Drive at: MSST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.73 - 1.17 = 1.56

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-25.83)

Score Difference (End): -27 (-24.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:01 ESPN team id 344 (1st & 10 at TTU 30) Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious Marks - MSST 7, TTU 34 0.88 0.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: MSST 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.04 - 1.16 = 0.88

Score Difference (Before): -27 (-25.84)

Score Difference (End): -27 (-24.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: MSST 7, TTU 34

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 34 (34)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3