North Carolina 21 @ South Carolina 38

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 6.00 | Odds: UNC -12.5, O/U 57.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 153 ESPN team id 2579
Total Plays 6576
Total EPA 9.519.4
  Offensive EPA 7.5324.18
  Special Teams EPA 3.061.81
  Penalty EPA -1.41-13.79
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 0.33-2.80
Production ESPN team id 153 ESPN team id 2579
Scrimmage Plays 5066
  Yards 318558
  Yards/Play 6.368.45
  EPA 7.5324.18
  EPA/Play 0.150.37
Passes 25 (50%)17 (26%)
  Yards 205242
  Yards/Play 8.2014.24
  EPA 2.9912.62
  EPA/Play 0.120.74
Rushes 25 (50%)49 (74%)
  Yards 162319
  Yards/Play 6.486.51
  EPA 4.5411.56
  EPA/Play 0.180.24
Rushing ESPN team id 153 ESPN team id 2579
Scrimmage Plays 5066
Rushes 25 (50%)49 (74%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 3 (12%)1 (2%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 2 (67%)1 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 6 (24%)5 (10%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 9 (36%)16 (33%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 12 (48%)27 (55%)
OL Line Yards 35.883.8
  Per Carry 1.431.71
Highlight Yards 80130.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 6.674.83
Explosiveness ESPN team id 153 ESPN team id 2579
Total Plays 6576
Scrimmage Plays 5066
Explosive Plays 5 (10%)5 (8%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 3 (12%)2 (12%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 2 (8%)3 (6%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -13.373.97
  EPA/Play -0.300.07
  When Passing -8.681.10
    EPA/Play -0.350.06
  When Rushing -4.692.87
    EPA/Play -0.200.06
Situational ESPN team id 153 ESPN team id 2579
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 18 (36%)34 (52%)
  When Passing 10 (40%)10 (59%)
  When Rushing 8 (32%)24 (49%)
  On Standard Downs 12 (38%)27 (57%)
  On Passing Downs 6 (33%)7 (37%)
  On Early Downs 15 (38%)28 (51%)
  On Late Downs 3 (27%)6 (55%)
  During "Middle 8" 4 (57%)8 (73%)
Early Downs 3955
  First Downs Created 10 (26%)17 (31%)
  EPA 13.2121.01
  EPA/Play 0.340.38
  Passes 20 (51%)12 (22%)
  Rushes 19 (49%)43 (78%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 9 (45%)8 (67%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 6 (32%)20 (47%)
"Middle 8" Plays 711
  EPA 2.768.85
  EPA/play 0.390.80
  Passes 4 (57%)4 (36%)
  Rushes 3 (43%)7 (64%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 3 (75%)4 (100%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 1 (33%)4 (57%)
Drives ESPN team id 153 ESPN team id 2579
Total 1010
Avg Starting Field Position Own 24Own 24
Plays/Drive 5.768.56
Yards/Drive 37.5855.67
Available Yards % 49%73%
Defensive ESPN team id 153 ESPN team id 2579
Scrimmage Plays 6650
Stop Rate 26%42%
Havoc Plays Created 6 (9%)7 (14%)
  Passing 2 (12%)4 (16%)
  Rushing 4 (8%)3 (12%)
TFLs Generated 67
  Passing 24
  Rushing 43
Sacks Generated 2 (12%)4 (16%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 00
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 153 ESPN team id 2579
Turnovers 00
  Fumbles 10
  Fumbles Lost 00
  Fumbles Recovered 10
  Interceptions 00
Turnover Margin 00
Expected Turnovers 0.50.5
Expected Turnover Margin 0.00.0
Turnover Luck (pts) 0.00.0
Special Teams ESPN team id 153 ESPN team id 2579
Total Plays 15 10
Total EPA 3.06 1.81
  Field Goal EPA 2.46 1.1
  Punting EPA 0.93 0.71
  Kickoff Return EPA -0.32 0

North Carolina [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Sam Howell 12/20, 205 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 4 Scks, 79.5 xQBR 8.54 0.13 3.03 42% -3.0%
Drake Maye 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 47.1 xQBR 0.00 -0.04 -0.04 0% 0.0%
Rush attempts
British Brooks 5 carries, 72 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.40 1.28 6.41 40% 11.0%
Sam Howell 9 carries, 37 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 4.11 0.13 1.13 44% 13.0%
Drake Maye 2 carries, 24 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.00 -0.18 -0.36 0% -1.0%
Ty Chandler 9 carries, 29 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.22 -0.29 -2.63 22% -5.0%
Pass targets
Garrett Walston 1 catch (1 target), 37 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 37.00 5.94 5.94 100% 24.0%
Antoine Green 4 catches (4 targets), 73 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 18.25 1.26 5.02 100% 9.0%
Josh Downs 3 catches (6 targets), 62 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 20.67 0.57 3.42 50% -8.0%
Bryson Nesbit 2 catches (2 targets), 29 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.50 1.00 1.99 100% -8.0%
British Brooks 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.04 -0.04 0% 0.0%
Stephen Gosnell 1 catch (1 target), 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.60 -0.60 0% 0.0%
Kamari Morales 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.96 -0.96 0% -4.0%
Ty Chandler 1 catch (2 targets), 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.64 -1.27 0% -5.0%
Justin Olson 0 catches (3 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.68 -2.05 0% 0.0%

South Carolina [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Dakereon Joyner 9/9, 160 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 82.6 xQBR 17.78 1.18 10.60 78% 23.0%
Zeb Noland 3/6, 82 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 92.2 xQBR 11.71 0.53 3.71 43% 16.0%
O'Mega Blake 0/0, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 9.7 xQBR 0.00 -1.69 -1.69 0% -8.0%
Rush attempts
Kevin Harris 31 carries, 182 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.87 0.17 5.32 48% 5.0%
Juju McDowell 5 carries, 52 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.40 0.78 3.92 60% 12.0%
Dakereon Joyner 10 carries, 64 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.40 0.28 2.83 50% -6.0%
Jaheim Bell 3 carries, 21 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 -0.17 -0.51 33% 1.0%
Pass targets
Jaheim Bell 5 catches (5 targets), 159 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 31.80 2.72 13.62 80% 26.0%
Ahmarean Brown 4 catches (4 targets), 61 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.25 0.87 3.47 75% 10.0%
Juju McDowell 1 catch (1 target), 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 1.00 1.00 100% 2.0%
Xavier Legette 1 catch (2 targets), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.06 0.11 50% 3.0%
E.J. Jenkins 1 catch (3 targets), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 -0.68 -2.04 33% -4.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & Goal at UNC 3) SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Hank Manos) to the NCaro 8 - UNC 0, SC 0 -8.14 40.6% -24.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: SC 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.16 - 5.98 = -8.14

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 98 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.6%

Win Probability (After): 16.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:11 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 10 at UNC 37) British Brooks run for 63 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) - UNC 7, SC 18 7.14 42.6% 14.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -0.14 = 7.14

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.14)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 7, SC 18

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.6%

Win Probability (After): 56.6%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:27 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & Goal at UNC 3) NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (2 Yards) to the NCaro 1 - UNC 10, SC 18 -6.93 76.0% -29.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.10 - 5.83 = -6.93

Score Difference (Before): 15 (20.83)

Score Difference (End): 8 (6.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 18

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.0%

Win Probability (After): 46.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 25 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:24 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 7 at SC 37) Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 37 yds for a TD, (T. Chandler Run For Two-point Conversion) - UNC 21, SC 32 5.94 13.0% 24.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 2.06 = 5.94

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-16.94)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.0%

Win Probability (After): 37.1%

Away Score: 13 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:45 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 9 at SC 34) Zeb Noland pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 66 yds for a TD, (Kai Kroeger pass to Nick Muse for Two-Point Conversion) - UNC 0, SC 15 5.83 37.6% 8.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 99

Started Drive at: SC 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 2.17 = 5.83

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.17)

Score Difference (End): 15 (15.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 15

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.6%

Win Probability (After): 46.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 6 at SC 31) Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 69 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) - UNC 0, SC 7 5.68 20.3% 11.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 99

Started Drive at: SC 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.32 = 5.68

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.32)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 98 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.3%

Win Probability (After): 31.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:27 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at UNC 35) Juju McDowell run for 35 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) - UNC 10, SC 25 4.37 53.0% 13.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 99

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.63 = 4.37

Score Difference (Before): 8 (10.63)

Score Difference (End): 15 (15.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 25

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.0%

Win Probability (After): 66.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 18 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:27 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 7 at UNC 30) Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 34 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST down - UNC 7, SC 18 3.05 50.5% 5.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 36

Started Drive at: UNC 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.18 - 0.13 = 3.05

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.87)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 7, SC 18

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.5%

Win Probability (After): 55.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:22 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 4 at SC 44) Sam Howell sacked by Jabari Ellis for a loss of 10 yards to the NCaro 46 - UNC 0, SC 0 -3.04 85.0% -5.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 54

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.89 - 2.15 = -3.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.15)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.0%

Win Probability (After): 79.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:29 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 10 at UNC 39) Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 21 yds to the SCaro 40 for a 1ST down - UNC 13, SC 32 2.69 11.4% 2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 40

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - -0.09 = 2.69

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-19.09)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-16.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 32

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.4%

Win Probability (After): 13.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 2:27 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & Goal at UNC 3) NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (2 Yards) to the NCaro 1 - UNC 10, SC 18 -6.93 76.0% -29.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.10 - 5.83 = -6.93

Score Difference (Before): 15 (20.83)

Score Difference (End): 8 (6.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 18

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.0%

Win Probability (After): 46.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 25 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:24 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 7 at SC 37) Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 37 yds for a TD, (T. Chandler Run For Two-point Conversion) - UNC 21, SC 32 5.94 13.0% 24.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 2.06 = 5.94

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-16.94)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.0%

Win Probability (After): 37.1%

Away Score: 13 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & Goal at UNC 3) SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Hank Manos) to the NCaro 8 - UNC 0, SC 0 -8.14 40.6% -24.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: SC 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.16 - 5.98 = -8.14

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 98 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.6%

Win Probability (After): 16.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:11 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 10 at UNC 37) British Brooks run for 63 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) - UNC 7, SC 18 7.14 42.6% 14.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -0.14 = 7.14

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.14)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 7, SC 18

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.6%

Win Probability (After): 56.6%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:08 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 25) Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh Downs - UNC 0, SC 7 -1.61 81.9% -13.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.48 - 1.13 = -1.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.13)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.9%

Win Probability (After): 68.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:20 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 25) Sam Howell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 15 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST down - UNC 10, SC 25 0.65 56.2% -13.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 60

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.71 - 1.06 = 0.65

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.94)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-13.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 25

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 18 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:27 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at UNC 35) Juju McDowell run for 35 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) - UNC 10, SC 25 4.37 53.0% 13.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 99

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.63 = 4.37

Score Difference (Before): 8 (10.63)

Score Difference (End): 15 (15.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 25

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.0%

Win Probability (After): 66.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 18 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:44 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 20 at SC 23) Grayson Atkins 40 yd FG GOOD - UNC 10, SC 18 1.34 47.3% 11.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: UNC 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.66 = 1.34

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.34)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 18

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.3%

Win Probability (After): 59.0%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 6 at SC 31) Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 69 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) - UNC 0, SC 7 5.68 20.3% 11.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 99

Started Drive at: SC 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.32 = 5.68

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.32)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 98 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.3%

Win Probability (After): 31.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:44 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 6 at SC 19) Grayson Atkins 36 yd FG GOOD - UNC 13, SC 25 1.12 37.3% 10.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.88 = 1.12

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-13.12)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 25

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.3%

Win Probability (After): 47.9%

Away Score: 10 (13) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 6 at SC 31) Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 69 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) - UNC 0, SC 7 5.68 20.3% 11.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 99

Started Drive at: SC 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.32 = 5.68

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.32)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 98 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.3%

Win Probability (After): 31.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:45 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 9 at SC 34) Zeb Noland pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 66 yds for a TD, (Kai Kroeger pass to Nick Muse for Two-Point Conversion) - UNC 0, SC 15 5.83 37.6% 8.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 99

Started Drive at: SC 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 2.17 = 5.83

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.17)

Score Difference (End): 15 (15.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 15

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.6%

Win Probability (After): 46.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:27 ESPN team id 2579 (4th & 5 at UNC 12) Parker White 30 yd FG GOOD - UNC 0, SC 18 0.12 55.1% -6.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 12

Started Drive at: SC 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.88 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): 15 (17.88)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 18

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.1%

Win Probability (After): 49.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 15 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:11 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 10 at UNC 37) British Brooks run for 63 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) - UNC 7, SC 18 7.14 42.6% 14.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -0.14 = 7.14

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.14)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 7, SC 18

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.6%

Win Probability (After): 56.6%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:44 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 20 at SC 23) Grayson Atkins 40 yd FG GOOD - UNC 10, SC 18 1.34 47.3% 11.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: UNC 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.66 = 1.34

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.34)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 18

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.3%

Win Probability (After): 59.0%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:27 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at UNC 35) Juju McDowell run for 35 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) - UNC 10, SC 25 4.37 53.0% 13.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 99

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.63 = 4.37

Score Difference (Before): 8 (10.63)

Score Difference (End): 15 (15.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 25

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.0%

Win Probability (After): 66.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 18 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:44 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 6 at SC 19) Grayson Atkins 36 yd FG GOOD - UNC 13, SC 25 1.12 37.3% 10.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.88 = 1.12

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-13.12)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 25

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.3%

Win Probability (After): 47.9%

Away Score: 10 (13) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:53 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & Goal at UNC 1) Kevin Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker White KICK) - UNC 13, SC 32 0.63 80.6% 5.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.37 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): 12 (18.37)

Score Difference (End): 19 (19.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 32

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.6%

Win Probability (After): 86.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 25 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:24 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 7 at SC 37) Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 37 yds for a TD, (T. Chandler Run For Two-point Conversion) - UNC 21, SC 32 5.94 13.0% 24.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 2.06 = 5.94

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-16.94)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.0%

Win Probability (After): 37.1%

Away Score: 13 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:44 ESPN team id 2579 (4th & Goal at UNC 4) Parker White 22 yd FG GOOD - UNC 21, SC 35 0.08 95.5% 1.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: SC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.92 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.92)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.5%

Win Probability (After): 96.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:50 ESPN team id 2579 (4th & 11 at UNC 15) Parker White 33 yd FG GOOD - UNC 21, SC 38 0.90 99.1% 0.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: SC 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.10 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.10)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 38

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 153 (Kickoff at UNC 35) Mitch Jeter kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UNC 0, SC 0 0.00 82.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.0%

Win Probability (After): 82.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:38 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 25) Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 14 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST down - UNC 0, SC 0 0.92 85.2% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 61

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 1.03 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.03)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.2%

Win Probability (After): 85.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:15 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 39) Ty Chandler run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - UNC 0, SC 0 0.72 86.5% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 50

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 2.09 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.09)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.5%

Win Probability (After): 87.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:03 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at 50) Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the SCaro 49 - UNC 0, SC 0 -0.53 86.7% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 49

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.31 - 2.84 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.84)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.7%

Win Probability (After): 86.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:25 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 9 at SC 49) Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the SCaro 44 - UNC 0, SC 0 -0.09 84.3% 2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 44

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.23 - 2.32 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.32)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.3%

Win Probability (After): 86.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:22 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 4 at SC 44) Sam Howell sacked by Jabari Ellis for a loss of 10 yards to the NCaro 46 - UNC 0, SC 0 -3.04 85.0% -5.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 54

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.89 - 2.15 = -3.04

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.15)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.0%

Win Probability (After): 79.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:01 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 14 at UNC 46) Ben Kiernan punt for 47 yds, downed at the SCaro 7 - UNC 0, SC 0 0.97 81.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 93

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - -0.78 = 0.97

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.19)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNC 0, SC 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.5%

Win Probability (After): 81.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 11:44 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 7) Jaheim Bell run for 20 yds to the SCaro 27 for a 1ST down - UNC 0, SC 0 1.64 16.7% 3.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 73

Started Drive at: SC 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.44 - -0.20 = 1.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.20)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.7%

Win Probability (After): 20.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:15 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 27) Kevin Harris run for 9 yds to the SCaro 36 - UNC 0, SC 0 0.93 20.3% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 64

Started Drive at: SC 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.30 - 1.36 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.36)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.3%

Win Probability (After): 19.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:47 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 1 at SC 36) SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Jaylen Nichols) to the SCaro 31 - UNC 0, SC 0 -1.21 22.0% -1.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 69

Started Drive at: SC 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - 2.36 = -1.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.36)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.0%

Win Probability (After): 20.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 6 at SC 31) Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 69 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) - UNC 0, SC 7 5.68 20.3% 11.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 99

Started Drive at: SC 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.32 = 5.68

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.32)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 98 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.3%

Win Probability (After): 31.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & Goal at UNC 3) SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Hank Manos) to the NCaro 8 - UNC 0, SC 0 -8.14 40.6% -24.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: SC 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.16 - 5.98 = -8.14

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 98 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.6%

Win Probability (After): 16.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 153 (Kickoff at UNC 35) Mitch Jeter kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UNC 0, SC 0 0.00 81.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.19 - 1.19 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.9%

Win Probability (After): 81.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:08 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 25) Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh Downs - UNC 0, SC 7 -1.61 81.9% -13.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.48 - 1.13 = -1.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.13)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.9%

Win Probability (After): 68.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:04 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 10 at UNC 25) Sam Howell pass incomplete to Ty Chandler - UNC 0, SC 7 -0.93 68.7% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.69 - -0.76 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.76)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.7%

Win Probability (After): 66.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:45 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 10 at UNC 25) Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 9 yds to the NCaro 34 - UNC 0, SC 7 0.10 67.5% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.31 - -1.42 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.42)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.5%

Win Probability (After): 67.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:09 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 1 at UNC 34) Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds, downed at the SCaro 22 - UNC 0, SC 7 -0.99 66.5% 1.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 78

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.13 - -1.13 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.13)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.13)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNC 0, SC 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.5%

Win Probability (After): 67.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:45 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 22) Juju McDowell run for 11 yds to the SCaro 33 for a 1ST down - UNC 0, SC 7 0.62 34.6% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 67

Started Drive at: SC 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 2.01 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.01)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.6%

Win Probability (After): 35.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:25 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 33) Dakereon Joyner run for 1 yd to the SCaro 34 - UNC 0, SC 7 -0.43 36.2% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 66

Started Drive at: SC 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 2.61 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.61)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.2%

Win Probability (After): 34.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:45 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 9 at SC 34) Zeb Noland pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 66 yds for a TD, (Kai Kroeger pass to Nick Muse for Two-Point Conversion) - UNC 0, SC 15 5.83 37.6% 8.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 99

Started Drive at: SC 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 2.17 = 5.83

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.17)

Score Difference (End): 15 (15.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 15

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.6%

Win Probability (After): 46.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:40 ESPN team id 153 (Kickoff at UNC 35) Mitch Jeter kickoff for 62 yds , Caleb Hood return for 16 yds to the NCaro 19 - UNC 0, SC 15 -0.32 60.3% -1.3%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 81

Started Drive at: UNC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.76 - -0.44 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-15.44)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-15.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 15

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.3%

Win Probability (After): 59.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 15 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:27 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 19) British Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 17 - UNC 0, SC 15 -1.06 59.4% -3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 83

Started Drive at: UNC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.85 - -0.79 = -1.06

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-15.79)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-16.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 15

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.4%

Win Probability (After): 55.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 15 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:56 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 12 at UNC 17) British Brooks run for 6 yds to the NCaro 23 - UNC 0, SC 15 -0.09 56.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 77

Started Drive at: UNC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.88 - -1.80 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-16.80)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-16.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 15

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.7%

Win Probability (After): 56.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 15 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:11 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 6 at UNC 23) Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the NCaro 25 - UNC 0, SC 15 -1.00 55.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.77 - -1.77 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-16.77)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-17.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 15

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.8%

Win Probability (After): 55.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 15 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:41 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 4 at UNC 25) Ben Kiernan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Josh Vann at the SCaro 34 - UNC 0, SC 15 -0.45 53.5% -4.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66

Started Drive at: UNC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.13 - -2.67 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-17.67)

Score Difference (End): 15 (18.13)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNC 0, SC 15

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.5%

Win Probability (After): 49.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 15 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 5:30 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 34) Dakereon Joyner run for 8 yds to the SCaro 42 - UNC 0, SC 15 0.39 51.5% 4.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 58

Started Drive at: SC 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.49 - 3.10 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): 15 (18.10)

Score Difference (End): 15 (18.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 15

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.5%

Win Probability (After): 55.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 15 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:08 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 2 at SC 42) Kevin Harris run for 11 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST down - UNC 0, SC 15 0.46 52.2% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 47

Started Drive at: SC 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.96 - 3.50 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): 15 (18.50)

Score Difference (End): 15 (18.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 15

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.2%

Win Probability (After): 53.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 15 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:32 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at UNC 47) Kevin Harris run for 7 yds to the NCaro 40 - UNC 0, SC 15 0.30 43.7% 9.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 40

Started Drive at: SC 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.28 - 3.99 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): 15 (18.99)

Score Difference (End): 15 (19.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 15

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.7%

Win Probability (After): 53.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 15 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:50 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 3 at UNC 40) Kevin Harris run for 6 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST down - UNC 0, SC 15 0.23 45.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 34

Started Drive at: SC 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 4.26 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): 15 (19.26)

Score Difference (End): 15 (19.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 15

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.2%

Win Probability (After): 44.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 15 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:12 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at UNC 34) Dakereon Joyner run for 17 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST down - UNC 0, SC 15 0.94 52.8% -4.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 17

Started Drive at: SC 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.43 - 4.49 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): 15 (19.49)

Score Difference (End): 15 (20.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 15

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.8%

Win Probability (After): 48.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 15 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:30 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at UNC 17) Jaheim Bell run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 22 - UNC 0, SC 15 -1.46 55.4% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 22

Started Drive at: SC 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.98 - 5.44 = -1.46

Score Difference (Before): 15 (20.44)

Score Difference (End): 15 (18.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 15

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.4%

Win Probability (After): 53.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 15 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:47 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 15 at UNC 22) Kevin Harris run for 4 yds to the NCaro 18 - UNC 0, SC 15 -0.39 52.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 18

Started Drive at: SC 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.58 - 3.97 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 15 (18.97)

Score Difference (End): 15 (18.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 15

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.9%

Win Probability (After): 52.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 15 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:00 ESPN team id 2579 (3rd & 11 at UNC 18) Jaheim Bell run for 6 yds to the NCaro 12 - UNC 0, SC 15 -0.70 54.3% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 12

Started Drive at: SC 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.88 - 3.58 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): 15 (18.58)

Score Difference (End): 15 (17.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 15

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.3%

Win Probability (After): 53.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 15 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:27 ESPN team id 2579 (4th & 5 at UNC 12) Parker White 30 yd FG GOOD - UNC 0, SC 18 0.12 55.1% -6.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 12

Started Drive at: SC 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.88 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): 15 (17.88)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 18

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.1%

Win Probability (After): 49.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 15 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:27 ESPN team id 153 (Kickoff at UNC 35) Mitch Jeter kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UNC 0, SC 18 0.00 41.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.38 - -0.38 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.38)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 18

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.1%

Win Probability (After): 41.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:19 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 25) Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29 - UNC 0, SC 18 -0.17 41.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.55 - -0.38 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.38)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 18

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.0%

Win Probability (After): 40.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:54 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 6 at UNC 29) British Brooks run for 2 yds to the NCaro 31 - UNC 0, SC 18 -0.30 40.6% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 69

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.86 - -0.56 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.56)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 18

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.6%

Win Probability (After): 39.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:14 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 4 at UNC 31) Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 34 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCaro Sam Howell - UNC 0, SC 18 -0.70 43.4% -4.1%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 66

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.55 - -0.85 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.85)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-19.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 18

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.4%

Win Probability (After): 39.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:54 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 1 at UNC 34) Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST down - UNC 0, SC 18 2.09 42.5% 3.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 63

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - -1.56 = 2.09

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-19.56)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 18

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.5%

Win Probability (After): 46.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:23 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 37) Sam Howell pass incomplete to Justin Olson - UNC 0, SC 18 -0.68 43.8% 1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.15 - 0.53 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.47)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 0, SC 18

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.8%

Win Probability (After): 45.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:11 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 10 at UNC 37) British Brooks run for 63 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) - UNC 7, SC 18 7.14 42.6% 14.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -0.14 = 7.14

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.14)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 7, SC 18

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.6%

Win Probability (After): 56.6%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:11 ESPN team id 2579 (Kickoff at SC 35) Jonathan Kim kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UNC 7, SC 18 0.00 46.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.26 - 2.26 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.26)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 7, SC 18

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.7%

Win Probability (After): 46.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:02 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 25) Kevin Harris run for 3 yds to the SCaro 28 - UNC 7, SC 18 -0.38 46.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 72

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 2.22 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.22)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 7, SC 18

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.4%

Win Probability (After): 46.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:24 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 7 at SC 28) Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 1 yd to the SCaro 29 - UNC 7, SC 18 -0.73 43.4% 1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 71

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 1.86 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.86)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 7, SC 18

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.4%

Win Probability (After): 45.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:43 ESPN team id 2579 (3rd & 6 at SC 29) Zeb Noland pass complete to Xavier Legette for 7 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST down - UNC 7, SC 18 1.81 42.1% 3.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 64

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.97 - 1.16 = 1.81

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.16)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 7, SC 18

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.1%

Win Probability (After): 45.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:08 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 36) Kevin Harris run for 1 yd to the SCaro 37 - UNC 7, SC 18 -0.54 46.8% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 63

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 2.93 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.93)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 7, SC 18

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.8%

Win Probability (After): 44.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:19 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 9 at SC 37) Kevin Harris run for 2 yds to the SCaro 39 - UNC 7, SC 18 -0.63 54.6% -9.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 61

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.71 - 2.34 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.34)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 7, SC 18

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.6%

Win Probability (After): 44.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:35 ESPN team id 2579 (3rd & 7 at SC 39) Zeb Noland sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 9 yards to the SCaro 30 - UNC 7, SC 18 -1.86 48.7% 1.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 70

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.37 - 1.50 = -1.86

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.50)

Score Difference (End): 11 (10.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 7, SC 18

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.7%

Win Probability (After): 49.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:14 ESPN team id 2579 (4th & 16 at SC 30) Kai Kroeger punt for 43 yds, downed at the NCaro 27 - UNC 7, SC 18 0.09 48.2% -7.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 73

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.76 - -0.85 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): 11 (10.15)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.24)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNC 7, SC 18

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.2%

Win Probability (After): 41.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:09 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 27) Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the NCaro 30 - UNC 7, SC 18 -0.52 51.9% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 70

Started Drive at: UNC 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - 0.74 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.26)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 7, SC 18

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.9%

Win Probability (After): 53.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:27 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 7 at UNC 30) Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 34 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST down - UNC 7, SC 18 3.05 50.5% 5.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 36

Started Drive at: UNC 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.18 - 0.13 = 3.05

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.87)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 7, SC 18

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.5%

Win Probability (After): 55.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:45 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at SC 36) Sam Howell run for no gain to the SCaro 36 - UNC 7, SC 18 -0.56 53.3% 2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: UNC 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.52 - 3.08 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.92)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 7, SC 18

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.3%

Win Probability (After): 55.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:20 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 10 at SC 36) Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 23 yds to the SCaro 13 for a 1ST down - UNC 7, SC 18 1.93 53.1% 5.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 13

Started Drive at: UNC 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.61 - 2.68 = 1.93

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.32)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-6.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 7, SC 18

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.1%

Win Probability (After): 58.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:10 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at SC 13) Ty Chandler run for no gain to the SCaro 13 - UNC 7, SC 18 -0.63 58.5% -3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 13

Started Drive at: UNC 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.04 - 4.67 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.33)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-6.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 7, SC 18

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.5%

Win Probability (After): 55.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:13 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 10 at SC 13) Sam Howell sacked by Zacch Pickens and Jordan Strachan for a loss of 10 yards to the SCaro 23 - UNC 7, SC 18 -1.84 54.5% -4.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 23

Started Drive at: UNC 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 4.13 = -1.84

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.87)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 7, SC 18

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.5%

Win Probability (After): 50.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:49 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 20 at SC 23) Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh Downs - UNC 7, SC 18 -0.50 50.2% -3.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: UNC 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.77 - 2.27 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.73)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 7, SC 18

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.2%

Win Probability (After): 46.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:44 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 20 at SC 23) Grayson Atkins 40 yd FG GOOD - UNC 10, SC 18 1.34 47.3% 11.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: UNC 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.66 = 1.34

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.34)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 18

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.3%

Win Probability (After): 59.0%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:44 ESPN team id 2579 (Kickoff at SC 35) Jonathan Kim kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UNC 10, SC 18 0.00 46.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - 0.79 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 8 (8.79)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 18

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.2%

Win Probability (After): 46.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:36 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 25) Dakereon Joyner run for 3 yds to the SCaro 28 - UNC 10, SC 18 -0.51 47.2% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 72

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.40 - 0.91 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 8 (8.91)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 18

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.2%

Win Probability (After): 45.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:55 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 7 at SC 28) Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Juju McDowell for 8 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST down - UNC 10, SC 18 1.00 46.6% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 64

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.62 - 0.62 = 1.00

Score Difference (Before): 8 (8.62)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 18

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.6%

Win Probability (After): 48.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:15 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 36) Kevin Harris run for 17 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST down - UNC 10, SC 18 1.13 48.6% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 47

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.62 - 1.48 = 1.13

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.48)

Score Difference (End): 8 (10.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 18

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.6%

Win Probability (After): 50.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:40 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at UNC 47) Kevin Harris run for 1 yd to the NCaro 46 - UNC 10, SC 18 -0.47 51.7% -2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 46

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.84 - 2.31 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 8 (10.31)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 18

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.7%

Win Probability (After): 48.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:02 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 9 at UNC 46) Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 11 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST down - UNC 10, SC 18 1.42 50.9% 2.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 35

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.01 - 1.59 = 1.42

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.59)

Score Difference (End): 8 (11.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 18

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.9%

Win Probability (After): 53.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:27 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at UNC 35) Juju McDowell run for 35 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) - UNC 10, SC 25 4.37 53.0% 13.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 99

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.63 = 4.37

Score Difference (Before): 8 (10.63)

Score Difference (End): 15 (15.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 25

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.0%

Win Probability (After): 66.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 18 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:27 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & Goal at UNC 3) NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (2 Yards) to the NCaro 1 - UNC 10, SC 18 -6.93 76.0% -29.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.10 - 5.83 = -6.93

Score Difference (Before): 15 (20.83)

Score Difference (End): 8 (6.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 18

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.0%

Win Probability (After): 46.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 25 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:27 ESPN team id 153 (Kickoff at UNC 35) Mitch Jeter kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UNC 10, SC 18 0.00 56.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.97 - 0.97 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.03)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 18

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.2%

Win Probability (After): 56.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 18 (18)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:20 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 25) Sam Howell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 15 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST down - UNC 10, SC 25 0.65 56.2% -13.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 60

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.71 - 1.06 = 0.65

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.94)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-13.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 25

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 18 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:48 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 40) Sam Howell run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 36 - UNC 10, SC 25 -0.79 39.5% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 64

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.68 - 1.47 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-13.53)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-14.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 25

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.5%

Win Probability (After): 40.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:35 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 14 at UNC 36) Sam Howell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - UNC 10, SC 25 1.35 35.8% 5.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 50

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.73 - 0.39 = 1.35

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-14.61)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-13.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 25

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.8%

Win Probability (After): 40.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:28 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at 50) Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 27 yds to the SCaro 23 for a 1ST down - UNC 10, SC 25 2.06 38.9% 4.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 23

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.52 - 1.45 = 2.06

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-13.55)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-11.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 25

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.9%

Win Probability (After): 43.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:19 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at SC 23) Sam Howell pass complete to Ty Chandler for 1 yd to the SCaro 22 - UNC 10, SC 25 -0.34 43.8% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 22

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.12 - 3.46 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-11.54)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-11.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 25

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.8%

Win Probability (After): 41.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:52 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 9 at SC 22) Sam Howell run for 8 yds to the SCaro 14 - UNC 10, SC 25 0.72 40.0% 5.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 14

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.97 - 3.26 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-11.74)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-11.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 25

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.0%

Win Probability (After): 44.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:46 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 1 at SC 14) Ty Chandler run for no gain to the SCaro 14 - UNC 10, SC 25 -0.88 41.4% -3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.10 - 3.98 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-11.02)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-11.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 25

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.4%

Win Probability (After): 38.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:46 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 1 at SC 14) Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 00:46 - UNC 10, SC 25 0.00 38.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.10 - 3.10 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-11.90)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-11.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 25

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.0%

Win Probability (After): 38.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:46 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 1 at SC 14) Timeout SOUTH CAROLINA, clock 00:46 - UNC 10, SC 25 0.00 36.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.00 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-12.00)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 25

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.0%

Win Probability (After): 36.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:46 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 1 at SC 14) NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Jordan Tucker) to the SCaro 19 - UNC 10, SC 25 -1.09 38.0% -0.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 19

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.91 - 3.00 = -1.09

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-12.00)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-13.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 10, SC 25

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.0%

Win Probability (After): 37.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:44 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 6 at SC 19) Grayson Atkins 36 yd FG GOOD - UNC 13, SC 25 1.12 37.3% 10.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.88 = 1.12

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-13.12)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 25

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.3%

Win Probability (After): 47.9%

Away Score: 10 (13) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:44 ESPN team id 2579 (Kickoff at SC 35) Jonathan Kim kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UNC 13, SC 25 0.00 63.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.49 - 0.49 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 12 (12.49)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 25

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.7%

Win Probability (After): 63.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:32 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 25) Kevin Harris run for 2 yds to the SCaro 27 - UNC 13, SC 25 -0.46 64.3% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.47 - 0.46 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 12 (12.46)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 25

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.3%

Win Probability (After): 62.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2579 (Kickoff at SC 35) Jonathan Kim kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UNC 13, SC 25 0.00 62.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.13 - 2.13 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.13)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 25

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.9%

Win Probability (After): 62.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:38 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 25) Juju McDowell run for 8 yds to the SCaro 33 - UNC 13, SC 25 0.63 63.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.73 - 2.10 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.10)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 25

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.4%

Win Probability (After): 63.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:18 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 2 at SC 33) Kevin Harris run for 1 yd to the SCaro 34 - UNC 13, SC 25 -0.46 63.8% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 66

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.25 - 2.70 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.70)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 25

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.8%

Win Probability (After): 63.0%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:43 ESPN team id 2579 (3rd & 1 at SC 34) Kevin Harris run for 2 yds to the SCaro 36 for a 1ST down - UNC 13, SC 25 0.57 63.2% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 64

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.83 - 2.26 = 0.57

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.26)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 25

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.2%

Win Probability (After): 64.1%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:06 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 36) Dakereon Joyner pass complete to E.J. Jenkins for 7 yds to the SCaro 43 - UNC 13, SC 25 0.35 68.1% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 57

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.16 - 2.81 = 0.35

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.81)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 25

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.1%

Win Probability (After): 68.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:26 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 3 at SC 43) Dakereon Joyner run for 3 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST down - UNC 13, SC 25 0.13 71.5% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 54

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.29 - 3.16 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.16)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 25

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.5%

Win Probability (After): 69.2%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:48 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 46) Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 26 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST down - UNC 13, SC 25 1.34 73.0% 2.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 28

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.61 - 3.27 = 1.34

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.27)

Score Difference (End): 12 (16.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 25

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.0%

Win Probability (After): 75.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:09 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at UNC 28) Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 23 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST down - UNC 13, SC 25 1.44 76.2% 3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 5

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.05 - 4.61 = 1.44

Score Difference (Before): 12 (16.61)

Score Difference (End): 12 (18.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 25

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.2%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:30 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & Goal at UNC 5) Kevin Harris run for 4 yds to the NCaro 1 - UNC 13, SC 25 0.29 80.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 1

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.36 - 6.07 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): 12 (18.07)

Score Difference (End): 12 (18.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 25

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.6%

Win Probability (After): 80.6%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 25 (25)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:53 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & Goal at UNC 1) Kevin Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker White KICK) - UNC 13, SC 32 0.63 80.6% 5.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.37 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): 12 (18.37)

Score Difference (End): 19 (19.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 32

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.6%

Win Probability (After): 86.5%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 25 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:53 ESPN team id 153 (Kickoff at UNC 35) Mitch Jeter kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UNC 13, SC 32 0.00 12.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - -0.35 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-19.35)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-19.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 32

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.3%

Win Probability (After): 12.3%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:41 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 25) Sam Howell run for 7 yds to the NCaro 32 - UNC 13, SC 32 0.60 11.6% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 68

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.25 - -0.35 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-19.35)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-18.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 32

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.6%

Win Probability (After): 13.0%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:07 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 3 at UNC 32) Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 7 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST down - UNC 13, SC 32 0.63 11.5% 1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 61

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - 0.17 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-18.83)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-18.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 32

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.5%

Win Probability (After): 13.4%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:38 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 39) Sam Howell pass incomplete to Justin Olson - UNC 13, SC 32 -0.60 12.2% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 0.62 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-18.38)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-18.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 32

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.2%

Win Probability (After): 11.8%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:29 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 10 at UNC 39) Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 21 yds to the SCaro 40 for a 1ST down - UNC 13, SC 32 2.69 11.4% 2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 40

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - -0.09 = 2.69

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-19.09)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-16.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 32

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.4%

Win Probability (After): 13.7%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:45 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at SC 40) Sam Howell pass complete to Stephen Gosnell for 3 yds to the SCaro 37 - UNC 13, SC 32 -0.60 12.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 37

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.08 - 2.68 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-16.32)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-16.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 13, SC 32

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.9%

Win Probability (After): 12.9%

Away Score: 13 (13) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:24 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 7 at SC 37) Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 37 yds for a TD, (T. Chandler Run For Two-point Conversion) - UNC 21, SC 32 5.94 13.0% 24.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 2.06 = 5.94

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-16.94)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.0%

Win Probability (After): 37.1%

Away Score: 13 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:24 ESPN team id 2579 (Kickoff at SC 35) Jonathan Kim kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UNC 21, SC 32 0.00 73.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 2.00 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.00)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.4%

Win Probability (After): 73.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:17 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 25) Kevin Harris run for 8 yds to the SCaro 33 - UNC 21, SC 32 0.46 74.3% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.56 - 2.10 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.10)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.3%

Win Probability (After): 75.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:35 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 2 at SC 33) Kevin Harris run for 4 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST down - UNC 21, SC 32 0.19 76.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 63

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.83 - 2.64 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.64)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.2%

Win Probability (After): 76.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:57 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 37) Kevin Harris run for 3 yds to the SCaro 40 - UNC 21, SC 32 -0.34 76.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 60

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 2.81 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.81)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.8%

Win Probability (After): 76.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:17 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 7 at SC 40) Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 3 yds to the SCaro 43 - UNC 21, SC 32 -0.41 77.0% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 57

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.08 - 2.49 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.49)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.0%

Win Probability (After): 76.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:40 ESPN team id 2579 (3rd & 4 at SC 43) Kevin Harris run for 5 yds to the SCaro 48 for a 1ST down - UNC 21, SC 32 1.31 76.5% 2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 52

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.38 - 2.06 = 1.31

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.06)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.5%

Win Probability (After): 78.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:02 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 48) Kevin Harris run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line - UNC 21, SC 32 -0.52 78.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 50

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.85 - 3.37 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.37)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.5%

Win Probability (After): 78.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:28 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 8 at 50) Zeb Noland pass incomplete to E.J. Jenkins - UNC 21, SC 32 -0.92 78.3% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - 2.89 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.89)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.3%

Win Probability (After): 76.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:19 ESPN team id 2579 (3rd & 8 at 50) Zeb Noland pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 9 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST down - UNC 21, SC 32 2.01 76.7% 7.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 41

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.99 - 1.97 = 2.01

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.97)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.7%

Win Probability (After): 84.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:38 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at UNC 41) O'Mega Blake sacked by Cedric Gray for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard line - UNC 21, SC 32 -1.69 85.0% -7.8%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 50

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.30 - 3.98 = -1.69

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.98)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.0%

Win Probability (After): 77.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:05 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 19 at 50) SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 45 - UNC 21, SC 32 -0.20 78.0% -1.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 55

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.10 - 2.29 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.29)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.0%

Win Probability (After): 76.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:35 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 24 at SC 45) Dakereon Joyner run for 8 yds to the NCaro 47 - UNC 21, SC 32 -0.70 78.2% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 47

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.45 - 2.14 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.14)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.2%

Win Probability (After): 76.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:20 ESPN team id 2579 (4th & 16 at UNC 47) SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 48 - UNC 21, SC 32 -0.13 78.4% -4.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 52

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.11 - 0.02 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.02)

Score Difference (End): 11 (10.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.4%

Win Probability (After): 73.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:20 ESPN team id 2579 (3rd & 16 at UNC 47) Zeb Noland pass incomplete to E.J. Jenkins - UNC 21, SC 32 -1.47 80.4% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 1.48 = -1.47

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.48)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.4%

Win Probability (After): 78.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:13 ESPN team id 2579 (4th & 21 at SC 48) Kai Kroeger punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 12 - UNC 21, SC 32 0.62 78.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 88

Started Drive at: SC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.50 - -0.12 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): 11 (10.88)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.50)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.1%

Win Probability (After): 77.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:00 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 12) Sam Howell run for 14 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST down - UNC 21, SC 32 0.93 20.9% 4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 74

Started Drive at: UNC 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - -0.48 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.48)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 1 play, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.9%

Win Probability (After): 24.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:22 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 26) Ty Chandler run for no gain to the NCaro 26 - UNC 21, SC 32 -0.83 24.6% -3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: UNC 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - 0.48 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.52)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.6%

Win Probability (After): 21.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:56 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 10 at UNC 26) Sam Howell pass incomplete to Kamari Morales - UNC 21, SC 32 -0.96 22.2% -3.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: UNC 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.29 - -0.33 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.33)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-12.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.2%

Win Probability (After): 18.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:56 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 10 at UNC 26) Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 14:56 - UNC 21, SC 32 0.00 18.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: UNC 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.29 - -1.29 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-12.29)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-12.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.0%

Win Probability (After): 18.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:30 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 10 at UNC 26) Sam Howell sacked by Jordan Strachan for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 18 - UNC 21, SC 32 -1.68 13.8% -2.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 82

Started Drive at: UNC 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.02 - -1.33 = -1.68

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-12.33)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-14.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.8%

Win Probability (After): 11.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:04 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 18 at UNC 18) Ben Kiernan punt for 61 yds , Josh Vann returns for a loss of 2 yards to the SCaro 19 - UNC 21, SC 32 1.19 11.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 81

Started Drive at: UNC 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.84 - -3.03 = 1.19

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-14.03)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.84)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.8%

Win Probability (After): 11.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 13:51 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 19) Kevin Harris run for 7 yds to the SCaro 26 - UNC 21, SC 32 0.38 88.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 74

Started Drive at: SC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.16 - 1.78 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.78)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.5%

Win Probability (After): 88.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:10 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 3 at SC 26) Dakereon Joyner run for 4 yds to the SCaro 30 for a 1ST down - UNC 21, SC 32 0.00 88.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 70

Started Drive at: SC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 2.39 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.39)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.5%

Win Probability (After): 88.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:22 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 30) Dakereon Joyner pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 12 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST down - UNC 21, SC 32 0.50 90.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 58

Started Drive at: SC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.17 - 2.67 = 0.50

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.67)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.1%

Win Probability (After): 89.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:52 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 42) Kevin Harris run for 38 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST down - UNC 21, SC 32 1.76 91.3% 2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 20

Started Drive at: SC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.02 - 3.27 = 1.76

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.27)

Score Difference (End): 11 (16.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.3%

Win Probability (After): 93.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 10:40 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at UNC 20) Juju McDowell run for 2 yds to the NCaro 18 - UNC 21, SC 32 -0.34 95.0% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 18

Started Drive at: SC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.62 - 4.96 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.96)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.0%

Win Probability (After): 93.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 10:28 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 8 at UNC 18) Dakereon Joyner run for 3 yds to the NCaro 15 - UNC 21, SC 32 -0.20 95.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 15

Started Drive at: SC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 4.49 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.49)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.0%

Win Probability (After): 94.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:56 ESPN team id 2579 (3rd & 5 at UNC 15) Timeout SOUTH CAROLINA, clock 09:56 - UNC 21, SC 32 0.00 95.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: SC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 4.29 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.29)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.4%

Win Probability (After): 95.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:49 ESPN team id 2579 (3rd & 5 at UNC 15) Dakereon Joyner run for 6 yds to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST down - UNC 21, SC 32 1.29 95.2% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 9

Started Drive at: SC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.54 - 4.25 = 1.29

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.25)

Score Difference (End): 11 (16.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:10 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & Goal at UNC 9) Kevin Harris run for 1 yd to the NCaro 8 - UNC 21, SC 32 -0.52 97.1% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 8

Started Drive at: SC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.98 - 5.50 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.50)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.1%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:25 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & Goal at UNC 8) Kevin Harris run for 4 yds to the NCaro 4 - UNC 21, SC 32 -0.15 96.6% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 4

Started Drive at: SC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.71 - 4.85 = -0.15

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.85)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.6%

Win Probability (After): 96.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 7:47 ESPN team id 2579 (3rd & Goal at UNC 4) Zeb Noland pass incomplete to Xavier Legette - UNC 21, SC 32 -1.70 96.2% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: SC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 4.62 = -1.70

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.62)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 32

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.2%

Win Probability (After): 95.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (32)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 7:44 ESPN team id 2579 (4th & Goal at UNC 4) Parker White 22 yd FG GOOD - UNC 21, SC 35 0.08 95.5% 1.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: SC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.92 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.92)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.5%

Win Probability (After): 96.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 32 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 7:44 ESPN team id 153 (Kickoff at UNC 35) Mitch Jeter kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UNC 21, SC 35 0.00 7.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - -0.04 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.04)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.8%

Win Probability (After): 7.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 7:36 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 25) Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29 - UNC 21, SC 35 -0.19 7.9% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.23 - -0.04 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.04)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.9%

Win Probability (After): 7.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 7:13 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 6 at UNC 29) Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the NCaro 34 - UNC 21, SC 35 0.31 6.3% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 66

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - -0.10 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.10)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.3%

Win Probability (After): 7.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 6:58 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 1 at UNC 34) British Brooks run for 3 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST down - UNC 21, SC 35 0.71 6.2% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 63

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 0.35 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.65)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.2%

Win Probability (After): 7.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 6:28 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 37) Sam Howell sacked by Damani Staley for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 31 - UNC 21, SC 35 -1.89 6.5% -1.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 69

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.62 - 1.27 = -1.89

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.73)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.5%

Win Probability (After): 5.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 6:03 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 16 at UNC 31) Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh Downs - UNC 21, SC 35 -0.83 4.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.24 - -0.41 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.41)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.3%

Win Probability (After): 4.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:59 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 16 at UNC 31) Sam Howell pass incomplete to Justin Olson - UNC 21, SC 35 -0.77 4.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.90 - -1.13 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.13)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.0%

Win Probability (After): 3.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:52 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 16 at UNC 31) Ben Kiernan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Josh Vann at the SCaro 24 - UNC 21, SC 35 0.22 3.6% -1.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 76

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.65 - -1.87 = 0.22

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.87)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.65)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.6%

Win Probability (After): 2.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:40 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 24) Kevin Harris run for 23 yds to the SCaro 47 for a 1ST down - UNC 21, SC 35 1.44 97.8% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 53

Started Drive at: SC 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.83 - 1.39 = 1.44

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.39)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 1 play, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:00 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at SC 47) Kevin Harris run for no gain to the SCaro 47 - UNC 21, SC 35 -0.75 98.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: SC 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.06 - 2.81 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.81)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.6%

Win Probability (After): 98.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:25 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 10 at SC 47) Kevin Harris run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line - UNC 21, SC 35 -0.32 98.7% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 50

Started Drive at: SC 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.76 - 2.08 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.08)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.7%

Win Probability (After): 98.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:25 ESPN team id 2579 (3rd & 7 at 50) Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 04:25 - UNC 21, SC 35 0.00 98.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: SC 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.76 - 1.76 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.76)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.5%

Win Probability (After): 98.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:18 ESPN team id 2579 (3rd & 7 at 50) Dakereon Joyner run for 11 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST down - UNC 21, SC 35 1.92 98.5% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 39

Started Drive at: SC 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 1.51 = 1.92

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.51)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:38 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at UNC 39) Kevin Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 40 - UNC 21, SC 35 -0.72 99.2% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 40

Started Drive at: SC 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 3.20 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.20)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:00 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 11 at UNC 40) Kevin Harris run for 11 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Chris Collins) to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST down - UNC 21, SC 35 2.40 99.2% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 14

Started Drive at: SC 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.89 - 2.08 = 2.40

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.48)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:15 ESPN team id 2579 (1st & 10 at UNC 14) Juju McDowell run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 18 - UNC 21, SC 35 -1.36 99.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 18

Started Drive at: SC 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 4.47 = -1.36

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.47)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:45 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 14 at UNC 18) Timeout SOUTH CAROLINA, clock 01:45 - UNC 21, SC 35 0.00 99.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: SC 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 3.11 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.11)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:33 ESPN team id 2579 (2nd & 14 at UNC 18) Kevin Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 19 - UNC 21, SC 35 -0.51 99.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 19

Started Drive at: SC 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 2.55 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.55)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:54 ESPN team id 2579 (3rd & 15 at UNC 19) Kevin Harris run for 4 yds to the NCaro 15 - UNC 21, SC 35 -0.03 99.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 15

Started Drive at: SC 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.04 - 2.07 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.07)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:54 ESPN team id 2579 (4th & 11 at UNC 15) Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 00:54 - UNC 21, SC 35 0.00 99.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: SC 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.04 - 2.04 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.04)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 35

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.0%

Win Probability (After): 99.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:50 ESPN team id 2579 (4th & 11 at UNC 15) Parker White 33 yd FG GOOD - UNC 21, SC 38 0.90 99.1% 0.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: SC 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.10 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.10)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 38

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 35 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:50 ESPN team id 153 (Kickoff at UNC 35) Mitch Jeter kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UNC 21, SC 38 0.00 0.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.34 - 0.34 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.66)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-16.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 38

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:47 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 25) Drake Maye pass incomplete to British Brooks - UNC 21, SC 38 -0.04 0.5% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - 0.28 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.72)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-16.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:37 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 10 at UNC 25) Drake Maye run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (J.J. Jones) to the NCaro 15 - UNC 21, SC 38 -0.36 0.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 85

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.12 - 0.20 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.76)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:09 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 20 at UNC 15) Drake Maye run for 19 yds to the NCaro 34 - UNC 21, SC 38 -0.01 0.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 66

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - -0.06 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.06)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNC 21, SC 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2