Pittsburgh 21 @ Michigan State 31

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 7.05 | Odds: MSU -3.5, O/U 55.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 221 ESPN team id 127
Total Plays 6995
Total EPA -17.44-3.62
  Offensive EPA -11.458.32
  Special Teams EPA -4.62-2.02
  Penalty EPA -1.37-9.92
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 0.000.00
Production ESPN team id 221 ESPN team id 127
Scrimmage Plays 5586
  Yards 352435
  Yards/Play 6.405.06
  EPA -11.458.32
  EPA/Play -0.210.10
Passes 28 (51%)53 (62%)
  Yards 170354
  Yards/Play 6.076.68
  EPA -14.8212.23
  EPA/Play -0.530.23
Rushes 27 (49%)33 (38%)
  Yards 14380
  Yards/Play 5.302.42
  EPA 3.38-3.90
  EPA/Play 0.13-0.12
Rushing ESPN team id 221 ESPN team id 127
Scrimmage Plays 5586
Rushes 27 (49%)33 (38%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 3 (11%)0 (0%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 2 (67%)0 (0%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 6 (22%)8 (24%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 11 (41%)19 (58%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 13 (48%)10 (30%)
OL Line Yards 34.629.5
  Per Carry 1.280.89
Highlight Yards 49.514
  Per Rush Opportunity 3.811.40
Explosiveness ESPN team id 221 ESPN team id 127
Total Plays 6995
Scrimmage Plays 5586
Explosive Plays 4 (7%)9 (10%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 1 (4%)7 (13%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 3 (11%)2 (6%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -21.97-20.89
  EPA/Play -0.43-0.27
  When Passing -18.29-11.65
    EPA/Play -0.65-0.22
  When Rushing -3.68-9.24
    EPA/Play -0.15-0.30
Situational ESPN team id 221 ESPN team id 127
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 26 (47%)36 (42%)
  When Passing 11 (39%)24 (45%)
  When Rushing 15 (56%)12 (36%)
  On Standard Downs 21 (58%)19 (39%)
  On Passing Downs 5 (26%)17 (46%)
  On Early Downs 22 (54%)21 (34%)
  On Late Downs 4 (29%)15 (60%)
  During "Middle 8" 5 (83%)9 (53%)
Early Downs 4161
  First Downs Created 10 (24%)11 (18%)
  EPA -8.07-11.81
  EPA/Play -0.20-0.19
  Passes 19 (46%)34 (56%)
  Rushes 22 (54%)27 (44%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 10 (53%)14 (41%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 12 (55%)7 (26%)
"Middle 8" Plays 617
  EPA 7.180.81
  EPA/play 1.200.05
  Passes 3 (50%)8 (47%)
  Rushes 3 (50%)9 (53%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 3 (100%)2 (25%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 2 (67%)7 (78%)
Drives ESPN team id 221 ESPN team id 127
Total 1113
Avg Starting Field Position Own 18Own 30
Plays/Drive 6.608.85
Yards/Drive 36.4943.27
Available Yards % 44%62%
Defensive ESPN team id 221 ESPN team id 127
Scrimmage Plays 8655
Stop Rate 36%53%
Havoc Plays Created 14 (16%)12 (22%)
  Passing 7 (13%)8 (29%)
  Rushing 7 (21%)4 (15%)
TFLs Generated 910
  Passing 36
  Rushing 64
Sacks Generated 3 (6%)5 (18%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 11
Fumbles Forced 10
Turnovers ESPN team id 221 ESPN team id 127
Turnovers 12
  Fumbles 02
  Fumbles Lost 01
  Fumbles Recovered 01
  Interceptions 11
Turnover Margin 1-1
Expected Turnovers 1.21.2
Expected Turnover Margin 0.00.0
Turnover Luck (pts) 5.0-5.0
Special Teams ESPN team id 221 ESPN team id 127
Total Plays 14 9
Total EPA -4.62 -2.02
  Field Goal EPA 0 -2.61
  Punting EPA -1.85 1.09
  Kickoff Return EPA -2.77 -0.5

Pittsburgh [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Nick Patti 2/5, 21 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 77.9 xQBR 4.20 -0.10 -0.49 40% 0.0%
Davis Beville 14/18, 149 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 5 Scks, 34.1 xQBR 6.48 -0.62 -14.34 39% -22.0%
Rush attempts
Nick Patti 3 carries, 27 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 1.35 4.05 100% 8.0%
Davis Beville 2 carries, 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.50 1.35 2.69 100% 6.0%
Jordan Addison 1 carry, 28 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 28.00 1.55 1.55 100% 3.0%
Israel Abanikanda 5 carries, 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.20 -0.16 -0.82 60% -2.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. 4 carries, 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 -0.31 -1.25 25% -4.0%
Vincent Davis 12 carries, 43 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.58 -0.24 -2.86 42% -37.0%
Pass targets
Jordan Addison 7 catches (9 targets), 114 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.29 0.68 6.08 67% 33.0%
Jared Wayne 1 catch (1 target), 4 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 1.72 1.72 100% 8.0%
Melquise Stovall 2 catches (2 targets), 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.50 1.00 100% 13.0%
Gavin Bartholomew 1 catch (1 target), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 0.39 0.39 100% 1.0%
Shocky Jacques-Louis 1 catch (1 target), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 -0.38 -0.38 0% -2.0%
Lucas Krull 1 catch (3 targets), 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 -0.35 -1.04 33% 13.0%
Vincent Davis 3 catches (4 targets), 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.33 -0.60 -2.41 0% -2.0%

Michigan State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Payton Thorne 29/50, 354 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 3 Scks, 61.1 xQBR 6.68 0.23 12.23 45% 110.0%
Rush attempts
Payton Thorne 7 carries, 28 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 4.00 0.47 3.29 57% -15.0%
Connor Heyward 1 carry, 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 3.04 3.04 100% 4.0%
TEAM 1 carry, -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.00 -0.63 -0.63 0% 1.0%
Harold Joiner 2 carries, 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.32 -0.64 50% -2.0%
Elijah Collins 6 carries, 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.50 -0.30 -1.81 17% 0.0%
Jordon Simmons 16 carries, 23 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 1.44 -0.45 -7.16 31% -26.0%
Pass targets
Jayden Reed 6 catches (10 targets), 80 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.33 0.75 7.47 50% 56.0%
Tre Mosley 5 catches (7 targets), 58 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.60 0.73 5.11 71% 18.0%
Connor Heyward 5 catches (6 targets), 37 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.40 0.77 4.62 50% 24.0%
Jalen Nailor 6 catches (14 targets), 108 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 18.00 0.25 3.47 43% 21.0%
Keon Coleman 2 catches (2 targets), 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 1.21 2.42 100% 10.0%
Maliq Carr 2 catches (3 targets), 35 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 17.50 0.40 1.20 67% 11.0%
Jordon Simmons 1 catch (1 target), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.11 0.11 100% 1.0%
Harold Joiner 2 catches (2 targets), 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.50 -0.70 -1.41 0% -4.0%
Montorie Foster 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.44 -1.44 0% -3.0%
Elijah Collins 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.76 -1.51 0% -1.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 0:22 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at MSU 26) Davis Beville pass intercepted for a TD Cal Haladay return for 78 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) - PITT 21, MSU 31 -10.10 54.1% -53.4%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99

Started Drive at: PITT 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.10 = -10.10

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.10)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 21, MSU 31

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 127 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 8:06 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & Goal at PITT 3) MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 8 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -7.59 49.0% -40.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.78 - 4.81 = -7.59

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-0.19)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-13.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.0%

Win Probability (After): 8.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:11 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 9 at PITT 28) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 28 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) - PITT 0, MSU 7 4.11 61.5% 13.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 99

Started Drive at: PITT 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.89 = 4.11

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.89)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.5%

Win Probability (After): 74.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:51 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at PITT 22) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 22 yds for a TD, (Payton Thorne pass to Jalen Nailor for Two-Point Conversion) - PITT 21, MSU 24 4.05 46.2% 34.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.95 = 4.05

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-1.05)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 24

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:03 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at PITT 29) Payton Thorne pass intercepted Brandon Hill return for no gain to the Pitt 13 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -3.57 72.9% -7.7%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 87

Started Drive at: MSU 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - 3.17 = -3.57

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.17)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.60)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.9%

Win Probability (After): 65.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:29 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 35) Davis Beville pass complete to Jordan Addison for 52 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 3.47 37.0% 14.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 13

Started Drive at: PITT 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.48 - 1.01 = 3.47

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.99)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.0%

Win Probability (After): 51.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:13 ESPN team id 127 (4th & Goal at PITT 15) Matt Coghlin 33 yd FG MISSED - PITT 7, MSU 10 -3.34 67.9% -5.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 80

Started Drive at: MSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.61 - 2.73 = -3.34

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.73)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.39)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.9%

Win Probability (After): 62.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:41 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 5 at MSU 41) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 3.34 14.7% 7.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 50

Started Drive at: MSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.90 - -1.44 = 3.34

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-12.44)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.7%

Win Probability (After): 22.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:37 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 13 at PITT 28) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor, broken up by A.J. Woods - PITT 21, MSU 10 -3.26 22.5% -5.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 72

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.44 - 0.83 = -3.26

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.17)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.44)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.5%

Win Probability (After): 17.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 6:47 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 13 at MSU 22) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 17 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 7 3.23 49.2% 9.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 61

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - -1.21 = 3.23

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.2%

Win Probability (After): 58.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 0:22 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at MSU 26) Davis Beville pass intercepted for a TD Cal Haladay return for 78 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) - PITT 21, MSU 31 -10.10 54.1% -53.4%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99

Started Drive at: PITT 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.10 = -10.10

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.10)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 21, MSU 31

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 127 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:22 ESPN team id 221 (Kickoff at PITT 35) Stephen Rusnak on-side kick recovered by MICHIGAN ST at the Pitt 22 - PITT 21, MSU 31 3.02 0.8% 45.9%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 22

Started Drive at: PITT 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.20 - 0.18 = 3.02

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.82)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.80)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 21, MSU 31

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 46.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 8:06 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & Goal at PITT 3) MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 8 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -7.59 49.0% -40.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.78 - 4.81 = -7.59

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-0.19)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-13.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.0%

Win Probability (After): 8.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:51 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at PITT 22) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 22 yds for a TD, (Payton Thorne pass to Jalen Nailor for Two-Point Conversion) - PITT 21, MSU 24 4.05 46.2% 34.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.95 = 4.05

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-1.05)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 24

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 7:55 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 22) Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 22 - PITT 21, MSU 16 -1.17 96.2% -22.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: PITT 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - 1.63 = -1.17

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.63)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 16

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.2%

Win Probability (After): 73.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:40 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 10 at MSU 25) Payton Thorne run for 1 yd Payton Thorne fumbled, forced by John Morgan III, recovered by Pitt Cam Bright , return for 26 yds, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 21, MSU 10 2.30 40.4% -20.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.31 - -0.99 = 2.30

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.99)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.4%

Win Probability (After): 19.7%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:06 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & Goal at PITT 15) Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 15 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - PITT 21, MSU 16 2.76 13.5% 17.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 3.24 = 2.76

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.76)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 16

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.5%

Win Probability (After): 31.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:44 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 3 at MSU 34) Davis Beville pass complete to Lucas Krull for 8 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 24 0.64 39.4% 17.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 26

Started Drive at: PITT 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 2.81 = 0.64

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.19)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.4%

Win Probability (After): 56.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:00 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 10 at PITT 36) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 14 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 16 1.98 31.3% 15.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 22

Started Drive at: MSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.02 - 2.04 = 1.98

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-2.96)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-0.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 16

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.3%

Win Probability (After): 47.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:29 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 35) Davis Beville pass complete to Jordan Addison for 52 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 3.47 37.0% 14.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 13

Started Drive at: PITT 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.48 - 1.01 = 3.47

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.99)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.0%

Win Probability (After): 51.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 13:11 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 9 at PITT 28) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 28 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) - PITT 0, MSU 7 4.11 61.5% 13.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 99

Started Drive at: PITT 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.89 = 4.11

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.89)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.5%

Win Probability (After): 74.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:57 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 4 at MSU 16) Nick Patti run for 16 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 7, MSU 7 3.06 33.5% 6.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 99

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.94 = 3.06

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.5%

Win Probability (After): 39.4%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:39 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 15 at PITT 18) Matt Coghlin 36 yd FG GOOD - PITT 7, MSU 10 0.73 58.8% 8.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.27 = 0.73

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.27)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.8%

Win Probability (After): 67.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:02 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & Goal at MSU 4) Davis Beville pass complete to Jared Wayne for 4 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 14, MSU 10 1.72 52.3% 8.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: PITT 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.28 = 1.72

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.28)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 87 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.3%

Win Probability (After): 60.7%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:40 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 10 at MSU 25) Payton Thorne run for 1 yd Payton Thorne fumbled, forced by John Morgan III, recovered by Pitt Cam Bright , return for 26 yds, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 21, MSU 10 2.30 40.4% -20.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.31 - -0.99 = 2.30

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.99)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.4%

Win Probability (After): 19.7%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:06 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & Goal at PITT 15) Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 15 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - PITT 21, MSU 16 2.76 13.5% 17.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 3.24 = 2.76

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.76)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 16

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.5%

Win Probability (After): 31.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:51 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at PITT 22) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 22 yds for a TD, (Payton Thorne pass to Jalen Nailor for Two-Point Conversion) - PITT 21, MSU 24 4.05 46.2% 34.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.95 = 4.05

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-1.05)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 24

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:22 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at MSU 26) Davis Beville pass intercepted for a TD Cal Haladay return for 78 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) - PITT 21, MSU 31 -10.10 54.1% -53.4%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99

Started Drive at: PITT 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.10 = -10.10

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.10)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 21, MSU 31

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 127 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 221 (Kickoff at PITT 35) Stephen Rusnak kickoff for 63 yds , Israel Abanikanda return for no gain to the Pitt 2 - PITT 0, MSU 0 -3.01 41.6% -5.7%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 98

Started Drive at: PITT 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.15 - 0.86 = -3.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.6%

Win Probability (After): 35.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:50 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 2) Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Pitt 2 - PITT 0, MSU 0 -0.79 41.7% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 98

Started Drive at: PITT 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.72 - -0.93 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.93)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.7%

Win Probability (After): 39.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:15 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 10 at PITT 2) Nick Patti pass incomplete to Lucas Krull - PITT 0, MSU 0 -0.97 41.0% -3.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 98

Started Drive at: PITT 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.64 - -1.67 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.67)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.0%

Win Probability (After): 37.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:09 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 10 at PITT 2) Nick Patti pass incomplete to Jordan Addison - PITT 0, MSU 0 -0.96 38.6% -2.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 98

Started Drive at: PITT 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.61 - -2.66 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.66)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-3.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.6%

Win Probability (After): 35.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:56 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 10 at PITT 2) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 16 yds to the Pitt 29 - PITT 0, MSU 0 -0.25 37.2% -2.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 29

Started Drive at: PITT 2

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.19 - -3.93 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-3.93)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.19)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 0, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.2%

Win Probability (After): 34.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 13:51 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at PITT 29) Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the Pitt 28 - PITT 0, MSU 0 -0.45 65.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 28

Started Drive at: PITT 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.76 - 4.21 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.2%

Win Probability (After): 65.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:17 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 9 at PITT 28) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor - PITT 0, MSU 0 -0.78 63.0% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 28

Started Drive at: PITT 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.93 - 3.71 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.71)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.0%

Win Probability (After): 63.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:11 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 9 at PITT 28) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 28 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) - PITT 0, MSU 7 4.11 61.5% 13.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 99

Started Drive at: PITT 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.89 = 4.11

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.89)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.5%

Win Probability (After): 74.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:11 ESPN team id 221 (Kickoff at PITT 35) Stephen Rusnak kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PITT 0, MSU 7 0.00 27.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - -0.19 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.19)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.8%

Win Probability (After): 27.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:03 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 25) Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30 - PITT 0, MSU 7 0.19 27.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - -0.19 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.19)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.7%

Win Probability (After): 27.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:38 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 5 at PITT 30) Nick Patti pass complete to Jordan Addison for 13 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST down - PITT 0, MSU 7 1.36 25.8% 4.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 57

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - 0.01 = 1.36

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.99)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.8%

Win Probability (After): 30.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:17 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 43) Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 48 - PITT 0, MSU 7 0.12 29.0% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 52

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 1.36 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.64)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.0%

Win Probability (After): 28.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:40 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 5 at PITT 48) Nick Patti run for 8 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST down - PITT 0, MSU 7 0.76 28.2% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 44

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.28 - 1.52 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.48)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.2%

Win Probability (After): 30.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:10 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at MSU 44) Israel Abanikanda run for 7 yds to the MchSt 37 - PITT 0, MSU 7 0.54 28.7% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 37

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 2.28 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.72)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.7%

Win Probability (After): 30.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:39 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 3 at MSU 37) Nick Patti run for 3 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST down - PITT 0, MSU 7 0.23 30.0% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 34

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.09 - 2.86 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.14)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.0%

Win Probability (After): 30.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:11 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at MSU 34) Nick Patti pass complete to Jordan Addison for 8 yds to the MchSt 26 - PITT 0, MSU 7 0.79 29.8% 2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 26

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.89 - 3.09 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.91)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.8%

Win Probability (After): 31.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:41 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 2 at MSU 26) Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the MchSt 25 - PITT 0, MSU 7 -0.57 33.1% -2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 25

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.35 - 3.92 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.08)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.1%

Win Probability (After): 30.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:06 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 1 at MSU 25) Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST down - PITT 0, MSU 7 0.79 32.0% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 22

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.25 - 3.46 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.54)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.0%

Win Probability (After): 34.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:36 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at MSU 22) Vincent Davis run for 6 yds to the MchSt 16 - PITT 0, MSU 7 0.43 35.0% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 16

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.70 - 4.27 = 0.43

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.73)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.0%

Win Probability (After): 35.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:07 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 4 at MSU 16) Nick Patti pass incomplete to Lucas Krull, broken up by Noah Harvey - PITT 0, MSU 7 -0.71 34.4% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.97 - 4.67 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.33)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 0, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.4%

Win Probability (After): 33.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:57 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 4 at MSU 16) Nick Patti run for 16 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 7, MSU 7 3.06 33.5% 6.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 99

Started Drive at: PITT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.94 = 3.06

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.5%

Win Probability (After): 39.4%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:57 ESPN team id 127 (Kickoff at MSU 35) Ben Sauls kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PITT 7, MSU 7 0.00 56.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.04 - 1.04 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.04)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.2%

Win Probability (After): 56.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:52 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 25) Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 22 - PITT 7, MSU 7 -1.23 56.2% -4.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 78

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - 1.04 = -1.23

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.04)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.2%

Win Probability (After): 52.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:23 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 13 at MSU 22) Jordon Simmons run for no gain to the MchSt 22 - PITT 7, MSU 7 -0.98 51.9% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.25 - -0.26 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.26)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.9%

Win Probability (After): 49.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:47 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 13 at MSU 22) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 17 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 7 3.23 49.2% 9.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 61

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - -1.21 = 3.23

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.2%

Win Probability (After): 58.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:40 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 39) Joiner, Harold rush for 4 yards to the MICHIGANST43, PENALTY PITTSBURGH offside (Baldonado, Habakkuk) 5 yards to the MICHIGANST44, NO PLAY. - PITT 7, MSU 7 0.79 58.8% 2.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 56

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.89 - 2.11 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.8%

Win Probability (After): 60.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:24 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 5 at MSU 44) Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 25 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 7 1.19 61.5% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 31

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 2.89 = 1.19

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.89)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.5%

Win Probability (After): 62.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:16 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at PITT 31) Payton Thorne pass incomplete - PITT 7, MSU 7 -0.58 62.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 31

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.50 - 4.08 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.5%

Win Probability (After): 62.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:10 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 10 at PITT 31) Harold Joiner run for 6 yds to the Pitt 25 - PITT 7, MSU 7 0.03 61.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 25

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.53 - 3.51 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.51)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.5%

Win Probability (After): 61.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:52 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 4 at PITT 25) Payton Thorne run for 12 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 7 1.55 60.1% 4.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 13

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.06 - 3.51 = 1.55

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.51)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.1%

Win Probability (After): 64.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:17 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at PITT 13) Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 5 yds to the Pitt 8 - PITT 7, MSU 7 0.11 60.7% 3.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 8

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.16 - 5.05 = 0.11

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.7%

Win Probability (After): 64.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:40 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 5 at PITT 8) MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Matt Allen) to the Pitt 13 - PITT 7, MSU 7 -0.71 63.3% -3.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 13

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.48 - 5.19 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.3%

Win Probability (After): 60.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:24 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 10 at PITT 13) Harold Joiner run for 2 yds to the Pitt 11 - PITT 7, MSU 7 -0.66 61.9% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 11

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.86 - 4.52 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.52)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.9%

Win Probability (After): 60.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:49 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 8 at PITT 11) Timeout PITTSBURGH, clock 03:49 - PITT 7, MSU 7 0.00 60.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 11

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.86 - 3.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.1%

Win Probability (After): 60.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 3:43 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 8 at PITT 11) Joiner, Harold rush for 4 yards to the PITTSBURGH7, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Brown, Spencer) 10 yards to the PITTSBURGH21, NO PLAY. - PITT 7, MSU 7 -0.98 61.2% -1.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 21

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 3.86 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.2%

Win Probability (After): 59.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 3:19 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 18 at PITT 21) Payton Thorne pass complete to Harold Joiner for 3 yds to the Pitt 18 - PITT 7, MSU 7 -0.61 59.6% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 18

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 2.88 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.88)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.6%

Win Probability (After): 58.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 2:39 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 15 at PITT 18) Matt Coghlin 36 yd FG GOOD - PITT 7, MSU 10 0.73 58.8% 8.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.27 = 0.73

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.27)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.8%

Win Probability (After): 67.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:39 ESPN team id 221 (Kickoff at PITT 35) Stephen Rusnak kickoff for 57 yds , Israel Abanikanda return for 24 yds to the Pitt 32 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.44 40.9% -0.9%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 68

Started Drive at: PITT 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.28 - 0.72 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.28)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.9%

Win Probability (After): 40.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:33 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 32) PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Gavin Bartholomew) to the Pitt 27 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.79 41.5% -1.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 73

Started Drive at: PITT 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 1.43 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.57)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.5%

Win Probability (After): 39.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:26 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 15 at PITT 27) Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 26 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.89 39.9% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 74

Started Drive at: PITT 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.24 - 0.65 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.35)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.9%

Win Probability (After): 38.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:53 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 16 at PITT 26) Davis Beville pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 7 yds to the Pitt 33 - PITT 7, MSU 10 0.11 39.5% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 67

Started Drive at: PITT 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - -0.22 = 0.11

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.22)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.5%

Win Probability (After): 38.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:19 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 9 at PITT 33) Davis Beville pass complete to Vincent Davis for 8 yds to the Pitt 41 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.14 39.1% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 59

Started Drive at: PITT 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.18 - -0.04 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.04)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.1%

Win Probability (After): 40.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:38 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 1 at PITT 41) Davis Beville run for 1 yd to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 2.18 40.2% 3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 58

Started Drive at: PITT 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.05 - -0.13 = 2.18

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.13)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:29 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 42) Davis Beville pass incomplete to Vincent Davis - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.59 44.1% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: PITT 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 2.06 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.94)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.1%

Win Probability (After): 42.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:24 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 10 at PITT 42) Davis Beville pass complete to Vincent Davis for 1 yd to the Pitt 43 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.79 42.5% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 57

Started Drive at: PITT 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.68 - 1.47 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.53)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.5%

Win Probability (After): 41.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:54 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 9 at PITT 43) Davis Beville sacked by Brandon Wright for a loss of 9 yards to the Pitt 34 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -2.11 38.0% -6.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 66

Started Drive at: PITT 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.39 - 0.71 = -2.11

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.29)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.0%

Win Probability (After): 31.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:01 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 18 at PITT 34) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 9 yds to the MchSt 32 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.69 30.7% 3.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 68

Started Drive at: PITT 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.06 - -1.37 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.37)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.06)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.7%

Win Probability (After): 34.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:56 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 32) Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 33 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.68 66.8% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 67

Started Drive at: MSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.34 - 2.02 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.02)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.8%

Win Probability (After): 65.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:27 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 9 at MSU 33) Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 37 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.17 66.0% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 63

Started Drive at: MSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.18 - 1.35 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.35)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.0%

Win Probability (After): 65.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:51 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 5 at MSU 37) Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 9 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 1.63 65.2% 3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 54

Started Drive at: MSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 1.18 = 1.63

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.18)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.2%

Win Probability (After): 68.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:20 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 46) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 50 yds to the Pitt 4 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 3.19 67.8% 7.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 4

Started Drive at: MSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.05 - 2.86 = 3.19

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.86)

Score Difference (End): 3 (9.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.8%

Win Probability (After): 75.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:07 ESPN team id 127 (1st & Goal at PITT 4) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.51 75.6% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: MSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.50 - 6.00 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 3 (9.00)

Score Difference (End): 3 (8.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.6%

Win Probability (After): 74.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:07 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & Goal at PITT 4) MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Matt Allen) to the Pitt 9 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.87 74.6% -1.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 9

Started Drive at: MSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.61 - 5.49 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.49)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.6%

Win Probability (After): 73.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:59 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & Goal at PITT 9) Payton Thorne run for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 15 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -1.39 72.8% -4.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 15

Started Drive at: MSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.22 - 4.62 = -1.39

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.62)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.8%

Win Probability (After): 68.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:17 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & Goal at PITT 15) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.84 69.0% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: MSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.56 - 3.40 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.40)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.0%

Win Probability (After): 66.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:13 ESPN team id 127 (4th & Goal at PITT 15) Matt Coghlin 33 yd FG MISSED - PITT 7, MSU 10 -3.34 67.9% -5.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 80

Started Drive at: MSU 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.61 - 2.73 = -3.34

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.73)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.39)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.9%

Win Probability (After): 62.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:06 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 20) Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the Pitt 22 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.45 37.5% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 78

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.15 - 0.60 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.40)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.5%

Win Probability (After): 37.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:41 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 8 at PITT 22) Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the Pitt 25 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.43 36.4% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 75

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.27 - 0.16 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.84)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.4%

Win Probability (After): 35.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:59 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 5 at PITT 25) Davis Beville pass incomplete - PITT 7, MSU 10 -1.67 35.9% -5.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.80 - -0.13 = -1.67

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.13)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.9%

Win Probability (After): 30.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:51 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 5 at PITT 25) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 22 - PITT 7, MSU 10 0.28 31.3% 2.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 78

Started Drive at: PITT 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.43 - -1.70 = 0.28

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.70)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.43)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.3%

Win Probability (After): 33.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:43 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 22) Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 23 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.53 67.2% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 77

Started Drive at: MSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 1.35 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.35)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.2%

Win Probability (After): 65.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:11 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 9 at MSU 23) Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 15 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 1.70 65.1% 3.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 62

Started Drive at: MSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 0.65 = 1.70

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.65)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.1%

Win Probability (After): 68.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:36 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 38) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Elijah Collins - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.54 66.5% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: MSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.62 - 2.16 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.16)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.5%

Win Probability (After): 66.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:27 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 10 at MSU 38) Payton Thorne run for 11 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 1.15 65.6% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 51

Started Drive at: MSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.65 - 1.50 = 1.15

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.50)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.6%

Win Probability (After): 67.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:11 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 49) Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Pitt 48 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.34 67.2% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 48

Started Drive at: MSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.31 - 2.65 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.65)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.2%

Win Probability (After): 66.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:40 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 7 at PITT 48) Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 47 Jordon Simmons fumbled, recovered by MchSt Payton Thorne - PITT 7, MSU 10 -1.62 66.4% -3.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 53

Started Drive at: MSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.70 - 2.33 = -1.62

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.33)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.4%

Win Probability (After): 63.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:00 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 12 at MSU 47) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Montorie Foster - PITT 7, MSU 10 -1.44 63.5% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: MSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.61 - 0.83 = -1.44

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.83)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.5%

Win Probability (After): 60.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:46 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 12 at MSU 47) Bryce Baringer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the Pitt 11 - PITT 7, MSU 10 0.24 59.8% 7.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 89

Started Drive at: MSU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - -0.35 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.65)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.90)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.8%

Win Probability (After): 67.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 6:40 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 11) Vincent Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 10 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.98 32.9% -4.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 90

Started Drive at: PITT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.83 - 0.15 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.85)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.9%

Win Probability (After): 28.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:56 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 11 at PITT 10) Davis Beville run for 8 yds to the Pitt 18 - PITT 7, MSU 10 0.52 27.9% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 82

Started Drive at: PITT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - -0.87 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.87)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.9%

Win Probability (After): 30.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:33 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 3 at PITT 18) Davis Beville pass incomplete to Jordan Addison - PITT 7, MSU 10 -1.40 32.3% -6.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 82

Started Drive at: PITT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.78 - -0.38 = -1.40

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.38)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.3%

Win Probability (After): 26.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:20 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 3 at PITT 18) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 40 yds, downed at the MchSt 42 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.48 27.9% 4.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 58

Started Drive at: PITT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.06 - -1.58 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.58)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.06)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.9%

Win Probability (After): 32.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:14 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 42) Jordon Simmons run for 7 yds to the MchSt 49 - PITT 7, MSU 10 0.32 68.0% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 51

Started Drive at: MSU 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 2.16 = 0.32

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.16)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.0%

Win Probability (After): 68.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:45 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 3 at MSU 49) Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.54 69.0% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 50

Started Drive at: MSU 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 2.41 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.41)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.0%

Win Probability (After): 67.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:33 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 2 at 50) MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Spencer Brown) to the MchSt 45 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.74 67.2% -1.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 55

Started Drive at: MSU 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 1.81 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.81)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.2%

Win Probability (After): 65.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:12 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 7 at MSU 45) Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 15 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 2.21 65.6% 5.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 40

Started Drive at: MSU 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.16 - 0.95 = 2.21

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.95)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.6%

Win Probability (After): 71.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:39 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at PITT 40) Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the Pitt 38 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.42 71.5% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 38

Started Drive at: MSU 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 3.00 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.00)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.5%

Win Probability (After): 70.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:02 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 8 at PITT 38) Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the Pitt 35 - PITT 7, MSU 10 0.17 69.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 35

Started Drive at: MSU 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.51 - 2.34 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.34)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.6%

Win Probability (After): 69.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:31 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 5 at PITT 35) Jordon Simmons run for 6 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 1.17 68.5% 3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 29

Started Drive at: MSU 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.37 - 2.21 = 1.17

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.21)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.5%

Win Probability (After): 72.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:03 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at PITT 29) Payton Thorne pass intercepted Brandon Hill return for no gain to the Pitt 13 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -3.57 72.9% -7.7%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 87

Started Drive at: MSU 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - 3.17 = -3.57

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.17)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.60)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.9%

Win Probability (After): 65.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:55 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 13) Vincent Davis run for 12 yds to the Pitt 25 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 0.60 35.1% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 75

Started Drive at: PITT 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 0.47 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.53)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.1%

Win Probability (After): 37.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:47 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 25) Davis Beville pass complete to Jordan Addison for 10 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 0.54 37.3% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65

Started Drive at: PITT 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.45 - 0.92 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.08)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.3%

Win Probability (After): 38.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:29 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 35) Davis Beville pass complete to Jordan Addison for 52 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 3.47 37.0% 14.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 13

Started Drive at: PITT 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.48 - 1.01 = 3.47

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.99)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.0%

Win Probability (After): 51.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:21 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at MSU 13) Vincent Davis run for 12 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 1.82 52.2% 2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 1

Started Drive at: PITT 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.24 - 4.42 = 1.82

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.42)

Score Difference (End): -3 (3.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.2%

Win Probability (After): 54.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:08 ESPN team id 221 (1st & Goal at MSU 1) Vincent Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 4 - PITT 7, MSU 10 -0.96 55.3% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 4

Started Drive at: PITT 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.28 - 6.24 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): -3 (3.24)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.3%

Win Probability (After): 53.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:03 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & Goal at MSU 4) Timeout PITTSBURGH, clock 01:03 - PITT 7, MSU 10 0.00 53.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: PITT 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.28 - 5.28 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.28)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 7, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.1%

Win Probability (After): 53.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:02 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & Goal at MSU 4) Davis Beville pass complete to Jared Wayne for 4 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 14, MSU 10 1.72 52.3% 8.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: PITT 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.28 = 1.72

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.28)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 87 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.3%

Win Probability (After): 60.7%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:02 ESPN team id 127 (Kickoff at MSU 35) Ben Sauls kickoff for 65 yds , Jalen Nailor return for 16 yds to the MchSt 16 - PITT 14, MSU 10 -0.50 42.5% -1.2%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 84

Started Drive at: MSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.11 - 0.60 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.40)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.5%

Win Probability (After): 41.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:52 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 16) Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 9 yds to the MchSt 25 - PITT 14, MSU 10 0.38 41.7% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 0.28 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.72)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.7%

Win Probability (After): 42.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:43 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 1 at MSU 25) Payton Thorne sacked by Tyler Bentley for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 17 - PITT 14, MSU 10 -0.35 41.9% -3.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 83

Started Drive at: MSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 0.41 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.59)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.9%

Win Probability (After): 38.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:01 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 9 at MSU 17) Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 18 - PITT 14, MSU 10 0.00 37.6% 5.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 82

Started Drive at: MSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.43 - 0.00 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.00)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.6%

Win Probability (After): 42.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 127 (Kickoff at MSU 35) Ben Sauls kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PITT 14, MSU 10 0.00 42.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.35 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.65)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.6%

Win Probability (After): 42.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:54 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 25) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor, broken up by A.J. Woods - PITT 14, MSU 10 -0.68 44.0% -3.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.25 - 0.43 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.57)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.0%

Win Probability (After): 40.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:50 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 10 at MSU 25) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed - PITT 14, MSU 10 -1.13 43.5% -3.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.15 - -0.01 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.01)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-5.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 14, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.5%

Win Probability (After): 40.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:40 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 10 at MSU 25) Payton Thorne run for 1 yd Payton Thorne fumbled, forced by John Morgan III, recovered by Pitt Cam Bright , return for 26 yds, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 21, MSU 10 2.30 40.4% -20.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.31 - -0.99 = 2.30

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.99)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.4%

Win Probability (After): 19.7%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:40 ESPN team id 127 (Kickoff at MSU 35) Ben Sauls kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PITT 21, MSU 10 0.00 23.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.18 - -0.18 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.18)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.9%

Win Probability (After): 23.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:33 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 25) Jordon Simmons run for 10 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 1.10 23.9% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - -0.19 = 1.10

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.19)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.9%

Win Probability (After): 24.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:13 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 35) Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the MchSt 38 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -0.41 24.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 62

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 0.85 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.15)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.2%

Win Probability (After): 24.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:35 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 7 at MSU 38) Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 4 yds to the MchSt 42 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -0.02 23.7% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 58

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.40 - 0.42 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.58)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.7%

Win Probability (After): 23.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:57 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 3 at MSU 42) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor - PITT 21, MSU 10 -1.76 23.3% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.28 - 0.48 = -1.76

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.52)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-12.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.3%

Win Probability (After): 22.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:52 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 3 at MSU 42) Connor Heyward run for 7 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 3.04 21.7% 3.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 51

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - -1.23 = 3.04

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-12.23)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.7%

Win Probability (After): 25.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 12:12 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 49) Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 8 yds to the Pitt 43 - PITT 21, MSU 10 0.81 23.0% 4.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 43

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.61 - 1.80 = 0.81

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.20)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.0%

Win Probability (After): 27.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:47 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 2 at PITT 43) Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 0.19 25.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 40

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.79 - 2.60 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.40)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.0%

Win Probability (After): 25.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:03 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at PITT 40) Thorne, Payton pass incomplete, PENALTY PITTSBURGH roughing passer (Petrishen, John) 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST. - PITT 21, MSU 10 0.98 25.5% 2.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 25

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.77 - 2.78 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.22)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.5%

Win Probability (After): 27.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:56 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at PITT 25) Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 29 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -1.53 27.9% -4.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 29

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 3.78 = -1.53

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.22)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.9%

Win Probability (After): 23.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:24 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 14 at PITT 29) Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the Pitt 28 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -0.78 23.8% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 28

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 2.38 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.62)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.8%

Win Probability (After): 22.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:43 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 13 at PITT 28) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed - PITT 21, MSU 10 -0.92 23.3% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 28

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - 1.82 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.18)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.3%

Win Probability (After): 21.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:37 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 13 at PITT 28) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor, broken up by A.J. Woods - PITT 21, MSU 10 -3.26 22.5% -5.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 72

Started Drive at: MSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.44 - 0.83 = -3.26

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.17)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.44)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.5%

Win Probability (After): 17.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:28 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 28) Davis Beville sacked by Jacob Slade for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 20 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -1.51 82.8% -3.8%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 80

Started Drive at: PITT 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.92 - 2.42 = -1.51

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.42)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, -8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.8%

Win Probability (After): 79.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:57 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 18 at PITT 20) Vincent Davis run for 12 yds to the Pitt 32 - PITT 21, MSU 10 0.33 79.2% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 68

Started Drive at: PITT 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 0.92 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.92)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.2%

Win Probability (After): 78.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:22 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 6 at PITT 32) Davis Beville pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 5 yds to the Pitt 37 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -0.38 81.4% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 63

Started Drive at: PITT 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.76 - 1.14 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.14)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.4%

Win Probability (After): 79.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:29 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 1 at PITT 37) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 47 yds, downed at the MchSt 16 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -0.02 80.5% -2.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 84

Started Drive at: PITT 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.50 - 0.52 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.52)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.50)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.5%

Win Probability (After): 78.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:22 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 16) Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the MchSt 21 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -0.09 20.5% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 79

Started Drive at: MSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.60 - -0.51 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.51)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.5%

Win Probability (After): 19.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:52 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 5 at MSU 21) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Elijah Collins - PITT 21, MSU 10 -0.97 19.1% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 79

Started Drive at: MSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.51 - -0.54 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.54)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-12.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.1%

Win Probability (After): 17.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:48 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 5 at MSU 21) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed - PITT 21, MSU 10 -1.40 17.6% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 79

Started Drive at: MSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.85 - -1.45 = -1.40

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-12.45)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-13.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.6%

Win Probability (After): 15.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:40 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 5 at MSU 21) Bryce Baringer punt for 53 yds , Jordan Addison returns for no gain to the Pitt 26 - PITT 21, MSU 10 0.53 14.9% 0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 74

Started Drive at: MSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.31 - -2.84 = 0.53

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-13.84)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.31)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.9%

Win Probability (After): 15.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:31 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 26) Davis Beville pass complete to Jordan Addison for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 25 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -1.00 84.6% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 75

Started Drive at: PITT 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.29 - 2.29 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.29)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.6%

Win Probability (After): 82.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:21 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 11 at PITT 25) Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 26 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -0.68 82.8% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: PITT 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.59 - 1.27 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.27)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.8%

Win Probability (After): 80.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:42 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 10 at PITT 26) Davis Beville sacked by Drew Beesley and Brandon Wright for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 23 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -1.65 81.9% -4.8%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 77

Started Drive at: PITT 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.04 - 0.60 = -1.65

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.60)

Score Difference (End): 11 (9.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.9%

Win Probability (After): 77.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:58 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 13 at PITT 23) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 36 - PITT 21, MSU 10 0.05 77.4% -0.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 64

Started Drive at: PITT 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.96 - -1.02 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): 11 (9.98)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.04)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.4%

Win Probability (After): 76.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 4:47 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 36) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 5 yds to the MchSt 41 - PITT 21, MSU 10 0.14 22.5% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 59

Started Drive at: MSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 0.96 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.04)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.5%

Win Probability (After): 22.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:21 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 5 at MSU 41) Jordon Simmons run for no gain to the MchSt 41 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -0.85 21.9% -3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59

Started Drive at: MSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - 1.10 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.90)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.9%

Win Probability (After): 18.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:47 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 5 at MSU 41) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Maliq Carr - PITT 21, MSU 10 -1.67 17.5% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59

Started Drive at: MSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.43 - 0.24 = -1.67

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.76)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-12.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.5%

Win Probability (After): 15.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:41 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 5 at MSU 41) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 3.34 14.7% 7.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 50

Started Drive at: MSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.90 - -1.44 = 3.34

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-12.44)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.7%

Win Probability (After): 22.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:22 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at 50) Payton Thorne sacked by Bam Brima for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 40 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -1.80 22.1% -5.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 60

Started Drive at: MSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.09 - 1.89 = -1.80

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.11)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.1%

Win Probability (After): 16.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:45 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 20 at MSU 40) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Connor Heyward - PITT 21, MSU 10 -0.90 16.0% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: MSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.78 - 0.12 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.88)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.0%

Win Probability (After): 14.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:34 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 20 at MSU 40) Payton Thorne pass complete to Harold Joiner for 8 yds to the MchSt 48 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -0.80 14.9% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 52

Started Drive at: MSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.57 - -0.77 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.77)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-12.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.9%

Win Probability (After): 12.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:11 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 12 at MSU 48) Bryce Baringer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the Pitt 9 - PITT 21, MSU 10 0.31 12.3% 1.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 91

Started Drive at: MSU 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.25 - -1.57 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-12.57)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.25)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.3%

Win Probability (After): 13.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 2:01 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 9) Jordan Addison run for 28 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 1.55 86.3% 2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 63

Started Drive at: PITT 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.84 - 1.28 = 1.55

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.28)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.3%

Win Probability (After): 89.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:38 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 37) PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Carter Warren) to the Pitt 32 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -0.58 90.5% -3.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 68

Started Drive at: PITT 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 2.85 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.85)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.5%

Win Probability (After): 87.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:21 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 15 at PITT 32) Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 6 yds to the Pitt 38 - PITT 21, MSU 10 0.07 89.9% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 62

Started Drive at: PITT 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.36 - 2.29 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.29)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.9%

Win Probability (After): 88.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:52 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 9 at PITT 38) Davis Beville sacked by Simeon Barrow and Jacub Panasiuk for a loss of 12 yards to the Pitt 26 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -2.10 91.0% -5.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 74

Started Drive at: PITT 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.29 - 2.38 = -2.10

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.38)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.0%

Win Probability (After): 85.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:09 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 21 at PITT 26) Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 9 yds to the Pitt 35 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -0.45 86.4% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 65

Started Drive at: PITT 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.14 - 0.30 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.30)

Score Difference (End): 11 (10.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.4%

Win Probability (After): 85.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:53 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 12 at PITT 35) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 30 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -0.46 83.8% -1.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 70

Started Drive at: PITT 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.69 - -0.24 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 11 (10.76)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.31)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.8%

Win Probability (After): 82.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:48 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 30) Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 15 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 1.04 16.7% 2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 55

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.74 - 0.70 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.30)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.7%

Win Probability (After): 19.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:19 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 45) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 2 yds to the MchSt 47 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -0.40 18.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 53

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.30 - 1.70 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.30)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.6%

Win Probability (After): 18.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:52 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 8 at MSU 47) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 11 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 1.42 15.8% 4.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 42

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.66 - 1.24 = 1.42

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.76)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.8%

Win Probability (After): 19.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:26 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at PITT 42) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 13 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 0.97 19.1% 2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 29

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 2.64 = 0.97

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.36)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.1%

Win Probability (After): 21.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:53 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at PITT 29) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 5 yds to the Pitt 24 - PITT 21, MSU 10 0.11 21.2% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 24

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.72 - 3.61 = 0.11

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.39)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.2%

Win Probability (After): 21.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:16 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 5 at PITT 24) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor - PITT 21, MSU 10 -0.79 20.2% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 3.70 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.30)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.2%

Win Probability (After): 18.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:11 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 5 at PITT 24) Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 25 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -1.51 18.8% -5.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 25

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.39 - 2.90 = -1.51

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.10)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.8%

Win Probability (After): 12.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:30 ESPN team id 127 (4th & 6 at PITT 25) Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 8 yds to the Pitt 17 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 3.21 12.8% 10.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 17

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.62 - 1.41 = 3.21

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.59)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-6.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.8%

Win Probability (After): 23.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:58 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at PITT 17) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 6 yds to the Pitt 11 - PITT 21, MSU 10 0.13 21.9% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 11

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.78 - 4.65 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.35)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-6.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.9%

Win Probability (After): 22.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:11 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 4 at PITT 11) Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the Pitt 5 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 0.88 20.4% 6.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 5

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.64 - 4.76 = 0.88

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.24)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-5.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.4%

Win Probability (After): 27.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:56 ESPN team id 127 (1st & Goal at PITT 5) MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Maliq Carr) to the Pitt 10 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -0.80 22.2% -1.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 10

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.82 - 5.62 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-5.38)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-6.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.2%

Win Probability (After): 20.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:28 ESPN team id 127 (1st & Goal at PITT 10) Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the Pitt 9 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -0.44 20.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 9

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.36 - 4.80 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.20)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-6.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.1%

Win Probability (After): 19.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:43 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & Goal at PITT 9) Payton Thorne sacked by Devin Danielson for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 15 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -1.52 16.9% -4.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 15

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 4.33 = -1.52

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.67)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.9%

Win Probability (After): 12.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:06 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & Goal at PITT 15) Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 15 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - PITT 21, MSU 16 2.76 13.5% 17.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 3.24 = 2.76

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.76)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 16

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.5%

Win Probability (After): 31.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:06 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & Goal at PITT 3) MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 8 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -7.59 49.0% -40.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.78 - 4.81 = -7.59

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-0.19)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-13.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.0%

Win Probability (After): 8.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:06 ESPN team id 221 (Kickoff at PITT 35) Stephen Rusnak kickoff for 56 yds , Vincent Davis return for 13 yds to the Pitt 22 - PITT 21, MSU 10 -1.12 96.0% -1.2%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 78

Started Drive at: PITT 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 1.75 = -1.12

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.75)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.0%

Win Probability (After): 94.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:55 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 22) Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 22 - PITT 21, MSU 16 -1.17 96.2% -22.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: PITT 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - 1.63 = -1.17

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.63)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 16

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.2%

Win Probability (After): 73.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:14 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 10 at PITT 22) Davis Beville pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 9 yds to the Pitt 31 - PITT 21, MSU 16 0.39 73.9% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 69

Started Drive at: PITT 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.93 - 0.53 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): 5 (5.53)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 16

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.9%

Win Probability (After): 74.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:25 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 1 at PITT 31) Vincent Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 29 - PITT 21, MSU 16 -2.09 78.1% -8.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 71

Started Drive at: PITT 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.18 - 0.90 = -2.09

Score Difference (Before): 5 (5.90)

Score Difference (End): 5 (3.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.1%

Win Probability (After): 69.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:37 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 3 at PITT 29) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 29 - PITT 21, MSU 16 -0.28 71.0% -3.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: PITT 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.43 - -1.15 = -0.28

Score Difference (Before): 5 (3.85)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-3.57)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 21, MSU 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.0%

Win Probability (After): 68.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:32 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 29) Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the MchSt 31 - PITT 21, MSU 16 -0.53 31.2% -4.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 69

Started Drive at: MSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.67 - 1.20 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-3.80)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-4.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 16

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.2%

Win Probability (After): 27.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:02 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 8 at MSU 31) Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 1 yd to the MchSt 32 - PITT 21, MSU 16 -0.82 26.7% -3.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 68

Started Drive at: MSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 0.83 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.17)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-4.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 16

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.7%

Win Probability (After): 22.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:28 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 7 at MSU 32) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 11 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 16 2.14 22.5% 12.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 57

Started Drive at: MSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 0.03 = 2.14

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.97)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-2.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.5%

Win Probability (After): 35.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:11 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at MSU 43) Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 11 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 16 0.79 30.7% 7.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 46

Started Drive at: MSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.72 - 1.93 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-3.07)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-2.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 16

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.7%

Win Probability (After): 37.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:53 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at PITT 46) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre Mosley, broken up by Erick Hallett - PITT 21, MSU 16 -0.54 35.5% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: MSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 2.71 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-2.29)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-2.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 16

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.5%

Win Probability (After): 34.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:49 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 10 at PITT 46) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor - PITT 21, MSU 16 -0.63 31.9% -4.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: MSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.61 - 2.25 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-2.75)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-3.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 16

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.9%

Win Probability (After): 27.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:44 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 10 at PITT 46) Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 10 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 16 1.68 27.6% 12.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 36

Started Drive at: MSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.31 - 1.63 = 1.68

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-3.37)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-1.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 16

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.6%

Win Probability (After): 40.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:13 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at PITT 36) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre Mosley - PITT 21, MSU 16 -0.23 38.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: MSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 3.10 = -0.23

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-1.90)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-2.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 16

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.1%

Win Probability (After): 38.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:06 ESPN team id 127 (2nd & 10 at PITT 36) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor - PITT 21, MSU 16 -0.62 33.8% -4.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: MSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.05 - 2.67 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-2.33)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-2.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 16

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:06 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 10 at PITT 36) Timeout PITTSBURGH, clock 03:06 - PITT 21, MSU 16 0.00 29.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: MSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.05 - 2.05 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-2.95)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-2.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 16

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.2%

Win Probability (After): 29.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:00 ESPN team id 127 (3rd & 10 at PITT 36) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 14 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 16 1.98 31.3% 15.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 22

Started Drive at: MSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.02 - 2.04 = 1.98

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-2.96)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-0.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 16

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.3%

Win Probability (After): 47.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:51 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at PITT 22) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 22 yds for a TD, (Payton Thorne pass to Jalen Nailor for Two-Point Conversion) - PITT 21, MSU 24 4.05 46.2% 34.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99

Started Drive at: MSU 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.95 = 4.05

Score Difference (Before): -5 (-1.05)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 24

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.2%

Win Probability (After): 80.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:51 ESPN team id 221 (Kickoff at PITT 35) Stephen Rusnak kickoff for 40 yds fair catch by Vincent Davis at the Pitt 1 - PITT 21, MSU 24 -1.22 23.2% -5.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: PITT 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.29 - 0.93 = -1.22

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.07)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.2%

Win Probability (After): 18.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:43 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 25) Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 27 - PITT 21, MSU 24 -0.38 23.0% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: PITT 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.51 - 0.89 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.11)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.0%

Win Probability (After): 22.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:25 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 8 at PITT 27) Davis Beville sacked by Jacub Panasiuk and Jacob Slade for a loss of 7 yards to the Pitt 20 - PITT 21, MSU 24 -1.08 21.3% -6.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 80

Started Drive at: PITT 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.50 - 0.57 = -1.08

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.43)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.3%

Win Probability (After): 15.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:24 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 15 at PITT 20) Timeout PITTSBURGH, clock 02:24 - PITT 21, MSU 24 0.00 14.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80

Started Drive at: PITT 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.50 - -0.50 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.50)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.4%

Win Probability (After): 14.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:12 ESPN team id 221 (3rd & 15 at PITT 20) Davis Beville pass complete to Vincent Davis for 7 yds to the Pitt 27 - PITT 21, MSU 24 -0.88 13.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 73

Started Drive at: PITT 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.11 - -0.23 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.23)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.8%

Win Probability (After): 13.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:50 ESPN team id 221 (4th & 8 at PITT 27) Davis Beville pass complete to Jordan Addison for 8 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 24 2.31 13.9% 11.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 65

Started Drive at: PITT 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.50 - -0.81 = 2.31

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.81)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.9%

Win Probability (After): 25.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:35 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at PITT 35) Davis Beville pass complete to Jordan Addison for 24 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 24 0.98 19.5% 11.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 41

Started Drive at: PITT 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 1.13 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.87)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.5%

Win Probability (After): 30.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:15 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at MSU 41) Davis Beville pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 7 yds to the MchSt 34 - PITT 21, MSU 24 0.89 26.6% 13.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 34

Started Drive at: PITT 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.88 - 1.99 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.01)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.6%

Win Probability (After): 40.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:44 ESPN team id 221 (2nd & 3 at MSU 34) Davis Beville pass complete to Lucas Krull for 8 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 24 0.64 39.4% 17.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 26

Started Drive at: PITT 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 2.81 = 0.64

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.19)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.4%

Win Probability (After): 56.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:22 ESPN team id 221 (1st & 10 at MSU 26) Davis Beville pass intercepted for a TD Cal Haladay return for 78 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) - PITT 21, MSU 31 -10.10 54.1% -53.4%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99

Started Drive at: PITT 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.10 = -10.10

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.10)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 21, MSU 31

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 127 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:22 ESPN team id 221 (Kickoff at PITT 35) Stephen Rusnak on-side kick recovered by MICHIGAN ST at the Pitt 22 - PITT 21, MSU 31 3.02 0.8% 45.9%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 22

Started Drive at: PITT 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.20 - 0.18 = 3.02

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.82)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.80)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PITT 21, MSU 31

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 46.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:20 ESPN team id 127 (1st & 10 at PITT 22) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 23 - PITT 21, MSU 31 -0.63 99.2% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 23

Started Drive at: PITT 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.21 - 2.84 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.84)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PITT 21, MSU 31

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 31 (31)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1