Win Probability
Game Excitement Index: 7.05 | Odds: MSU -3.5, O/U 55.0 | Download Chart
Expected Points
Team Stats [show/hide]
| Overall |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 69 | 95 |
| Total EPA | -17.44 | -3.62 |
| Offensive EPA | -11.45 | 8.32 |
| Special Teams EPA | -4.62 | -2.02 |
| Penalty EPA | -1.37 | -9.92 |
| Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Production | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 55 | 86 |
| Yards | 352 | 435 |
| Yards/Play | 6.40 | 5.06 |
| EPA | -11.45 | 8.32 |
| EPA/Play | -0.21 | 0.10 |
| Passes | 28 (51%) | 53 (62%) |
| Yards | 170 | 354 |
| Yards/Play | 6.07 | 6.68 |
| EPA | -14.82 | 12.23 |
| EPA/Play | -0.53 | 0.23 |
| Rushes | 27 (49%) | 33 (38%) |
| Yards | 143 | 80 |
| Yards/Play | 5.30 | 2.42 |
| EPA | 3.38 | -3.90 |
| EPA/Play | 0.13 | -0.12 |
| Rushing | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 55 | 86 |
| Rushes | 27 (49%) | 33 (38%) |
| Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) | 3 (11%) | 0 (0%) |
| Successful Power Runs (Rate) | 2 (67%) | 0 (0%) |
| Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) | 6 (22%) | 8 (24%) |
| Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) | 11 (41%) | 19 (58%) |
| Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) | 13 (48%) | 10 (30%) |
| OL Line Yards | 34.6 | 29.5 |
| Per Carry | 1.28 | 0.89 |
| Highlight Yards | 49.5 | 14 |
| Per Rush Opportunity | 3.81 | 1.40 |
| Explosiveness | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 69 | 95 |
| Scrimmage Plays | 55 | 86 |
| Explosive Plays | 4 (7%) | 9 (10%) |
| When Passing (EPA > 2.4) | 1 (4%) | 7 (13%) |
| When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) | 3 (11%) | 2 (6%) |
| EPA w/o Explosive Plays | -21.97 | -20.89 |
| EPA/Play | -0.43 | -0.27 |
| When Passing | -18.29 | -11.65 |
| EPA/Play | -0.65 | -0.22 |
| When Rushing | -3.68 | -9.24 |
| EPA/Play | -0.15 | -0.30 |
| Situational | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Successful Plays (EPA > 0) | 26 (47%) | 36 (42%) |
| When Passing | 11 (39%) | 24 (45%) |
| When Rushing | 15 (56%) | 12 (36%) |
| On Standard Downs | 21 (58%) | 19 (39%) |
| On Passing Downs | 5 (26%) | 17 (46%) |
| On Early Downs | 22 (54%) | 21 (34%) |
| On Late Downs | 4 (29%) | 15 (60%) |
| During "Middle 8" | 5 (83%) | 9 (53%) |
| Early Downs | 41 | 61 |
| First Downs Created | 10 (24%) | 11 (18%) |
| EPA | -8.07 | -11.81 |
| EPA/Play | -0.20 | -0.19 |
| Passes | 19 (46%) | 34 (56%) |
| Rushes | 22 (54%) | 27 (44%) |
| Successful Passes (Rate) | 10 (53%) | 14 (41%) |
| Successful Rushes (Rate) | 12 (55%) | 7 (26%) |
| "Middle 8" Plays | 6 | 17 |
| EPA | 7.18 | 0.81 |
| EPA/play | 1.20 | 0.05 |
| Passes | 3 (50%) | 8 (47%) |
| Rushes | 3 (50%) | 9 (53%) |
| Successful Passes (Rate) | 3 (100%) | 2 (25%) |
| Successful Rushes (Rate) | 2 (67%) | 7 (78%) |
| Drives | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total | 11 | 13 |
| Avg Starting Field Position | Own 18 | Own 30 |
| Plays/Drive | 6.60 | 8.85 |
| Yards/Drive | 36.49 | 43.27 |
| Available Yards % | 44% | 62% |
| Defensive | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 86 | 55 |
| Stop Rate | 36% | 53% |
| Havoc Plays Created | 14 (16%) | 12 (22%) |
| Passing | 7 (13%) | 8 (29%) |
| Rushing | 7 (21%) | 4 (15%) |
| TFLs Generated | 9 | 10 |
| Passing | 3 | 6 |
| Rushing | 6 | 4 |
| Sacks Generated | 3 (6%) | 5 (18%) |
| Passes Defensed | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles Forced | 1 | 0 |
| Turnovers | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles Lost | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles Recovered | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions | 1 | 1 |
| Turnover Margin | 1 | -1 |
| Expected Turnovers | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Expected Turnover Margin | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Luck (pts) | 5.0 | -5.0 |
| Special Teams | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 14 | 9 |
| Total EPA | -4.62 | -2.02 |
| Field Goal EPA | 0 | -2.61 |
| Punting EPA | -1.85 | 1.09 |
| Kickoff Return EPA | -2.77 | -0.5 |
Pittsburgh [show/hide]
| Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | |||||||
| Nick Patti | 2/5, 21 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 77.9 xQBR | 4.20 | -0.10 | -0.49 | 40% | 0.0% | |
| Davis Beville | 14/18, 149 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 5 Scks, 34.1 xQBR | 6.48 | -0.62 | -14.34 | 39% | -22.0% | |
| Rush attempts | |||||||
| Nick Patti | 3 carries, 27 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 9.00 | 1.35 | 4.05 | 100% | 8.0% | |
| Davis Beville | 2 carries, 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 4.50 | 1.35 | 2.69 | 100% | 6.0% | |
| Jordan Addison | 1 carry, 28 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 28.00 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 100% | 3.0% | |
| Israel Abanikanda | 5 carries, 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 3.20 | -0.16 | -0.82 | 60% | -2.0% | |
| Rodney Hammond Jr. | 4 carries, 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 5.00 | -0.31 | -1.25 | 25% | -4.0% | |
| Vincent Davis | 12 carries, 43 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 3.58 | -0.24 | -2.86 | 42% | -37.0% | |
| Pass targets | |||||||
| Jordan Addison | 7 catches (9 targets), 114 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 16.29 | 0.68 | 6.08 | 67% | 33.0% | |
| Jared Wayne | 1 catch (1 target), 4 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 4.00 | 1.72 | 1.72 | 100% | 8.0% | |
| Melquise Stovall | 2 catches (2 targets), 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 7.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 100% | 13.0% | |
| Gavin Bartholomew | 1 catch (1 target), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 9.00 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 100% | 1.0% | |
| Shocky Jacques-Louis | 1 catch (1 target), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 5.00 | -0.38 | -0.38 | 0% | -2.0% | |
| Lucas Krull | 1 catch (3 targets), 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 8.00 | -0.35 | -1.04 | 33% | 13.0% | |
| Vincent Davis | 3 catches (4 targets), 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 5.33 | -0.60 | -2.41 | 0% | -2.0% | |
Michigan State [show/hide]
| Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | |||||||
| Payton Thorne | 29/50, 354 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 3 Scks, 61.1 xQBR | 6.68 | 0.23 | 12.23 | 45% | 110.0% | |
| Rush attempts | |||||||
| Payton Thorne | 7 carries, 28 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) | 4.00 | 0.47 | 3.29 | 57% | -15.0% | |
| Connor Heyward | 1 carry, 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 7.00 | 3.04 | 3.04 | 100% | 4.0% | |
| TEAM | 1 carry, -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | -1.00 | -0.63 | -0.63 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| Harold Joiner | 2 carries, 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 4.00 | -0.32 | -0.64 | 50% | -2.0% | |
| Elijah Collins | 6 carries, 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 2.50 | -0.30 | -1.81 | 17% | 0.0% | |
| Jordon Simmons | 16 carries, 23 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) | 1.44 | -0.45 | -7.16 | 31% | -26.0% | |
| Pass targets | |||||||
| Jayden Reed | 6 catches (10 targets), 80 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 13.33 | 0.75 | 7.47 | 50% | 56.0% | |
| Tre Mosley | 5 catches (7 targets), 58 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 11.60 | 0.73 | 5.11 | 71% | 18.0% | |
| Connor Heyward | 5 catches (6 targets), 37 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 7.40 | 0.77 | 4.62 | 50% | 24.0% | |
| Jalen Nailor | 6 catches (14 targets), 108 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 18.00 | 0.25 | 3.47 | 43% | 21.0% | |
| Keon Coleman | 2 catches (2 targets), 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 10.00 | 1.21 | 2.42 | 100% | 10.0% | |
| Maliq Carr | 2 catches (3 targets), 35 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 17.50 | 0.40 | 1.20 | 67% | 11.0% | |
| Jordon Simmons | 1 catch (1 target), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 5.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 100% | 1.0% | |
| Harold Joiner | 2 catches (2 targets), 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 5.50 | -0.70 | -1.41 | 0% | -4.0% | |
| Montorie Foster | 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 0.00 | -1.44 | -1.44 | 0% | -3.0% | |
| Elijah Collins | 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 0.00 | -0.76 | -1.51 | 0% | -1.0% | |
Big Plays [show/hide]
As determined by absolute EPA.
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 0:22 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 26) Davis Beville pass intercepted for a TD Cal Haladay return for 78 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) - PITT 21, MSU 31 | -10.10 | 54.1% | -53.4% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99 Started Drive at: PITT 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.10 = -10.10 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.10) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 21, MSU 31 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 127 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.1% Win Probability (After): 0.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (31) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 8:06 | |
(3rd & Goal at PITT 3) MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 8 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -7.59 | 49.0% | -40.8% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99 Started Drive at: MSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.78 - 4.81 = -7.59 Score Difference (Before): -5 (-0.19) Score Difference (End): -11 (-13.78) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.0% Win Probability (After): 8.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:11 | |
(3rd & 9 at PITT 28) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 28 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) - PITT 0, MSU 7 | 4.11 | 61.5% | 13.1% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 99 Started Drive at: PITT 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.89 = 4.11 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.89) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.5% Win Probability (After): 74.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 2:51 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 22) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 22 yds for a TD, (Payton Thorne pass to Jalen Nailor for Two-Point Conversion) - PITT 21, MSU 24 | 4.05 | 46.2% | 34.3% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99 Started Drive at: MSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.95 = 4.05 Score Difference (Before): -5 (-1.05) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 24 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 71 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.2% Win Probability (After): 80.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 2:03 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 29) Payton Thorne pass intercepted Brandon Hill return for no gain to the Pitt 13 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -3.57 | 72.9% | -7.7% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 87 Started Drive at: MSU 42 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - 3.17 = -3.57 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.17) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.60) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 34 yards Win Probability (Before): 72.9% Win Probability (After): 65.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:29 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 35) Davis Beville pass complete to Jordan Addison for 52 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 3.47 | 37.0% | 14.0% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 13 Started Drive at: PITT 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.48 - 1.01 = 3.47 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.99) Score Difference (End): -3 (1.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 37.0% Win Probability (After): 51.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 11:13 | |
(4th & Goal at PITT 15) Matt Coghlin 33 yd FG MISSED - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -3.34 | 67.9% | -5.4% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Missed Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 80 Started Drive at: MSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.61 - 2.73 = -3.34 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.73) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.39) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 58 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.9% Win Probability (After): 62.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 3:41 | |
(4th & 5 at MSU 41) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 3.34 | 14.7% | 7.3% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 50 Started Drive at: MSU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.90 - -1.44 = 3.34 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-12.44) Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.10) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.7% Win Probability (After): 22.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 9:37 | |
(4th & 13 at PITT 28) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor, broken up by A.J. Woods - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -3.26 | 22.5% | -5.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 72 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.44 - 0.83 = -3.26 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.17) Score Difference (End): 11 (13.44) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.5% Win Probability (After): 17.4% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 6:47 | |
(3rd & 13 at MSU 22) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 17 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 7 | 3.23 | 49.2% | 9.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 61 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - -1.21 = 3.23 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.21) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.02) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.2% Win Probability (After): 58.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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Most Important Plays [show/hide]
As determined by absolute WPA.
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 0:22 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 26) Davis Beville pass intercepted for a TD Cal Haladay return for 78 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) - PITT 21, MSU 31 | -10.10 | 54.1% | -53.4% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99 Started Drive at: PITT 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.10 = -10.10 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.10) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 21, MSU 31 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 127 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.1% Win Probability (After): 0.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (31) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 0:22 | |
(Kickoff at PITT 35) Stephen Rusnak on-side kick recovered by MICHIGAN ST at the Pitt 22 - PITT 21, MSU 31 | 3.02 | 0.8% | 45.9% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 22 Started Drive at: PITT 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.20 - 0.18 = 3.02 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.82) Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.80) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 21, MSU 31 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.8% Win Probability (After): 46.7% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 31 (31) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 8:06 | |
(3rd & Goal at PITT 3) MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 8 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -7.59 | 49.0% | -40.8% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99 Started Drive at: MSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.78 - 4.81 = -7.59 Score Difference (Before): -5 (-0.19) Score Difference (End): -11 (-13.78) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.0% Win Probability (After): 8.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 2:51 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 22) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 22 yds for a TD, (Payton Thorne pass to Jalen Nailor for Two-Point Conversion) - PITT 21, MSU 24 | 4.05 | 46.2% | 34.3% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99 Started Drive at: MSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.95 = 4.05 Score Difference (Before): -5 (-1.05) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 24 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 71 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.2% Win Probability (After): 80.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 7:55 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 22) Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 22 - PITT 21, MSU 16 | -1.17 | 96.2% | -22.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78 Started Drive at: PITT 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - 1.63 = -1.17 Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.63) Score Difference (End): 5 (5.46) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 16 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 96.2% Win Probability (After): 73.9% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:40 | |
(3rd & 10 at MSU 25) Payton Thorne run for 1 yd Payton Thorne fumbled, forced by John Morgan III, recovered by Pitt Cam Bright , return for 26 yds, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 2.30 | 40.4% | -20.7% |
|
Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.31 - -0.99 = 2.30 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.99) Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.4% Win Probability (After): 19.7% Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 8:06 | |
(3rd & Goal at PITT 15) Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 15 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - PITT 21, MSU 16 | 2.76 | 13.5% | 17.6% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 99 Started Drive at: MSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 3.24 = 2.76 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.76) Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 16 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 13.5% Win Probability (After): 31.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 0:44 | |
(2nd & 3 at MSU 34) Davis Beville pass complete to Lucas Krull for 8 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 24 | 0.64 | 39.4% | 17.1% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 26 Started Drive at: PITT 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 2.81 = 0.64 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.19) Score Difference (End): -3 (0.45) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 24 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards Win Probability (Before): 39.4% Win Probability (After): 56.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 3:00 | |
(3rd & 10 at PITT 36) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 14 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 16 | 1.98 | 31.3% | 15.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 22 Started Drive at: MSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.02 - 2.04 = 1.98 Score Difference (Before): -5 (-2.96) Score Difference (End): -5 (-0.98) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 16 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 49 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.3% Win Probability (After): 47.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 1:29 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 35) Davis Beville pass complete to Jordan Addison for 52 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 3.47 | 37.0% | 14.0% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 13 Started Drive at: PITT 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.48 - 1.01 = 3.47 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.99) Score Difference (End): -3 (1.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 37.0% Win Probability (After): 51.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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Scoring Plays [show/hide]
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:11 | |
(3rd & 9 at PITT 28) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 28 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) - PITT 0, MSU 7 | 4.11 | 61.5% | 13.1% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 99 Started Drive at: PITT 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.89 = 4.11 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.89) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.5% Win Probability (After): 74.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:57 | |
(3rd & 4 at MSU 16) Nick Patti run for 16 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 7, MSU 7 | 3.06 | 33.5% | 6.0% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 99 Started Drive at: PITT 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.94 = 3.06 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.06) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 33.5% Win Probability (After): 39.4% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 2:39 | |
(4th & 15 at PITT 18) Matt Coghlin 36 yd FG GOOD - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 0.73 | 58.8% | 8.3% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.27 = 0.73 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.27) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 67 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.8% Win Probability (After): 67.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 1:02 | |
(2nd & Goal at MSU 4) Davis Beville pass complete to Jared Wayne for 4 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 14, MSU 10 | 1.72 | 52.3% | 8.4% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99 Started Drive at: PITT 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.28 = 1.72 Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.28) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 14, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 87 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.3% Win Probability (After): 60.7% Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:40 | |
(3rd & 10 at MSU 25) Payton Thorne run for 1 yd Payton Thorne fumbled, forced by John Morgan III, recovered by Pitt Cam Bright , return for 26 yds, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 2.30 | 40.4% | -20.7% |
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Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.31 - -0.99 = 2.30 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.99) Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.4% Win Probability (After): 19.7% Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 8:06 | |
(3rd & Goal at PITT 15) Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 15 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - PITT 21, MSU 16 | 2.76 | 13.5% | 17.6% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 99 Started Drive at: MSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 3.24 = 2.76 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.76) Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 16 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 13.5% Win Probability (After): 31.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 2:51 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 22) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 22 yds for a TD, (Payton Thorne pass to Jalen Nailor for Two-Point Conversion) - PITT 21, MSU 24 | 4.05 | 46.2% | 34.3% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99 Started Drive at: MSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.95 = 4.05 Score Difference (Before): -5 (-1.05) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 24 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 71 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.2% Win Probability (After): 80.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 0:22 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 26) Davis Beville pass intercepted for a TD Cal Haladay return for 78 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) - PITT 21, MSU 31 | -10.10 | 54.1% | -53.4% |
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Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99 Started Drive at: PITT 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.10 = -10.10 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.10) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 21, MSU 31 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 127 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.1% Win Probability (After): 0.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (31) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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All Plays [show/hide]
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at PITT 35) Stephen Rusnak kickoff for 63 yds , Israel Abanikanda return for no gain to the Pitt 2 - PITT 0, MSU 0 | -3.01 | 41.6% | -5.7% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 98 Started Drive at: PITT 2 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.15 - 0.86 = -3.01 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86) Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.15) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 41.6% Win Probability (After): 35.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 14:50 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 2) Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Pitt 2 - PITT 0, MSU 0 | -0.79 | 41.7% | -2.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 98 Started Drive at: PITT 2 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.72 - -0.93 = -0.79 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.93) Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.72) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 41.7% Win Probability (After): 39.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 14:15 | |
(2nd & 10 at PITT 2) Nick Patti pass incomplete to Lucas Krull - PITT 0, MSU 0 | -0.97 | 41.0% | -3.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 98 Started Drive at: PITT 2 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.64 - -1.67 = -0.97 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.67) Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.64) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 41.0% Win Probability (After): 37.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 14:09 | |
(3rd & 10 at PITT 2) Nick Patti pass incomplete to Jordan Addison - PITT 0, MSU 0 | -0.96 | 38.6% | -2.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 98 Started Drive at: PITT 2 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.61 - -2.66 = -0.96 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.66) Score Difference (End): 0 (-3.61) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 38.6% Win Probability (After): 35.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:56 | |
(4th & 10 at PITT 2) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 16 yds to the Pitt 29 - PITT 0, MSU 0 | -0.25 | 37.2% | -2.4% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 29 Started Drive at: PITT 2 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.19 - -3.93 = -0.25 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-3.93) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.19) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 0, MSU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 37.2% Win Probability (After): 34.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 13:51 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 29) Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the Pitt 28 - PITT 0, MSU 0 | -0.45 | 65.2% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 28 Started Drive at: PITT 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.76 - 4.21 = -0.45 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.21) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.76) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.2% Win Probability (After): 65.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:17 | |
(2nd & 9 at PITT 28) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor - PITT 0, MSU 0 | -0.78 | 63.0% | 0.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 28 Started Drive at: PITT 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.93 - 3.71 = -0.78 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.71) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.93) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 63.0% Win Probability (After): 63.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:11 | |
(3rd & 9 at PITT 28) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 28 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) - PITT 0, MSU 7 | 4.11 | 61.5% | 13.1% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 99 Started Drive at: PITT 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.89 = 4.11 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.89) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.5% Win Probability (After): 74.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:11 | |
(Kickoff at PITT 35) Stephen Rusnak kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PITT 0, MSU 7 | 0.00 | 27.8% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: PITT 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - -0.19 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.19) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.19) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.8% Win Probability (After): 27.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:03 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 25) Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30 - PITT 0, MSU 7 | 0.19 | 27.7% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70 Started Drive at: PITT 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - -0.19 = 0.19 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.19) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.7% Win Probability (After): 27.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 12:38 | |
(2nd & 5 at PITT 30) Nick Patti pass complete to Jordan Addison for 13 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST down - PITT 0, MSU 7 | 1.36 | 25.8% | 4.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 57 Started Drive at: PITT 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - 0.01 = 1.36 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.99) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.64) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.8% Win Probability (After): 30.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 12:17 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 43) Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 48 - PITT 0, MSU 7 | 0.12 | 29.0% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 52 Started Drive at: PITT 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 1.36 = 0.12 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.64) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.52) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.0% Win Probability (After): 28.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 11:40 | |
(2nd & 5 at PITT 48) Nick Patti run for 8 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST down - PITT 0, MSU 7 | 0.76 | 28.2% | 2.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 44 Started Drive at: PITT 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.28 - 1.52 = 0.76 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.48) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.72) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.2% Win Probability (After): 30.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 11:10 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 44) Israel Abanikanda run for 7 yds to the MchSt 37 - PITT 0, MSU 7 | 0.54 | 28.7% | 1.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 37 Started Drive at: PITT 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 2.28 = 0.54 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.72) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.18) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 38 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.7% Win Probability (After): 30.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 10:39 | |
(2nd & 3 at MSU 37) Nick Patti run for 3 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST down - PITT 0, MSU 7 | 0.23 | 30.0% | 0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 34 Started Drive at: PITT 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.09 - 2.86 = 0.23 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.14) Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.91) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 30.0% Win Probability (After): 30.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 10:11 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 34) Nick Patti pass complete to Jordan Addison for 8 yds to the MchSt 26 - PITT 0, MSU 7 | 0.79 | 29.8% | 2.0% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 26 Started Drive at: PITT 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.89 - 3.09 = 0.79 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.91) Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.11) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.8% Win Probability (After): 31.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 9:41 | |
(2nd & 2 at MSU 26) Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the MchSt 25 - PITT 0, MSU 7 | -0.57 | 33.1% | -2.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 25 Started Drive at: PITT 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.35 - 3.92 = -0.57 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.08) Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.65) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 33.1% Win Probability (After): 30.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 9:06 | |
(3rd & 1 at MSU 25) Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST down - PITT 0, MSU 7 | 0.79 | 32.0% | 2.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 22 Started Drive at: PITT 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.25 - 3.46 = 0.79 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.54) Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.75) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 53 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.0% Win Probability (After): 34.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 8:36 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 22) Vincent Davis run for 6 yds to the MchSt 16 - PITT 0, MSU 7 | 0.43 | 35.0% | 0.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 16 Started Drive at: PITT 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.70 - 4.27 = 0.43 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.73) Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.30) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 59 yards Win Probability (Before): 35.0% Win Probability (After): 35.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 8:07 | |
(2nd & 4 at MSU 16) Nick Patti pass incomplete to Lucas Krull, broken up by Noah Harvey - PITT 0, MSU 7 | -0.71 | 34.4% | -0.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16 Started Drive at: PITT 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.97 - 4.67 = -0.71 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.33) Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.03) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 0, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 59 yards Win Probability (Before): 34.4% Win Probability (After): 33.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:57 | |
(3rd & 4 at MSU 16) Nick Patti run for 16 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 7, MSU 7 | 3.06 | 33.5% | 6.0% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 99 Started Drive at: PITT 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.94 = 3.06 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.06) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 33.5% Win Probability (After): 39.4% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:57 | |
(Kickoff at MSU 35) Ben Sauls kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PITT 7, MSU 7 | 0.00 | 56.2% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.04 - 1.04 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.04) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.04) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.2% Win Probability (After): 56.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:52 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 25) Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 22 - PITT 7, MSU 7 | -1.23 | 56.2% | -4.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 78 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - 1.04 = -1.23 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.04) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.19) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, -3 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.2% Win Probability (After): 52.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:23 | |
(2nd & 13 at MSU 22) Jordon Simmons run for no gain to the MchSt 22 - PITT 7, MSU 7 | -0.98 | 51.9% | -2.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.25 - -0.26 = -0.98 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.26) Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.25) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, -3 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.9% Win Probability (After): 49.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 6:47 | |
(3rd & 13 at MSU 22) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 17 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 7 | 3.23 | 49.2% | 9.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 61 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - -1.21 = 3.23 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.21) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.02) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.2% Win Probability (After): 58.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 6:40 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 39) Joiner, Harold rush for 4 yards to the MICHIGANST43, PENALTY PITTSBURGH offside (Baldonado, Habakkuk) 5 yards to the MICHIGANST44, NO PLAY. - PITT 7, MSU 7 | 0.79 | 58.8% | 2.2% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 56 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.89 - 2.11 = 0.79 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.11) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.89) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.8% Win Probability (After): 60.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 6:24 | |
(1st & 5 at MSU 44) Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 25 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 7 | 1.19 | 61.5% | 1.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 31 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 2.89 = 1.19 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.89) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.08) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.5% Win Probability (After): 62.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 6:16 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 31) Payton Thorne pass incomplete - PITT 7, MSU 7 | -0.58 | 62.5% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 31 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.50 - 4.08 = -0.58 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.08) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.50) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 62.5% Win Probability (After): 62.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 6:10 | |
(2nd & 10 at PITT 31) Harold Joiner run for 6 yds to the Pitt 25 - PITT 7, MSU 7 | 0.03 | 61.5% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 25 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.53 - 3.51 = 0.03 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.51) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.53) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.5% Win Probability (After): 61.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 5:52 | |
(3rd & 4 at PITT 25) Payton Thorne run for 12 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 7 | 1.55 | 60.1% | 4.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 13 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.06 - 3.51 = 1.55 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.51) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.06) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 57 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.1% Win Probability (After): 64.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 5:17 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 13) Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 5 yds to the Pitt 8 - PITT 7, MSU 7 | 0.11 | 60.7% | 3.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 8 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.16 - 5.05 = 0.11 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.05) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 62 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.7% Win Probability (After): 64.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 4:40 | |
(2nd & 5 at PITT 8) MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Matt Allen) to the Pitt 13 - PITT 7, MSU 7 | -0.71 | 63.3% | -3.3% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 13 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.48 - 5.19 = -0.71 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.19) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 62 yards Win Probability (Before): 63.3% Win Probability (After): 60.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 4:24 | |
(2nd & 10 at PITT 13) Harold Joiner run for 2 yds to the Pitt 11 - PITT 7, MSU 7 | -0.66 | 61.9% | -1.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 11 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.86 - 4.52 = -0.66 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.52) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 64 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.9% Win Probability (After): 60.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 3:49 | |
(3rd & 8 at PITT 11) Timeout PITTSBURGH, clock 03:49 - PITT 7, MSU 7 | 0.00 | 60.1% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 11 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.86 - 3.86 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.86) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 64 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.1% Win Probability (After): 60.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 3:43 | |
(3rd & 8 at PITT 11) Joiner, Harold rush for 4 yards to the PITTSBURGH7, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Brown, Spencer) 10 yards to the PITTSBURGH21, NO PLAY. - PITT 7, MSU 7 | -0.98 | 61.2% | -1.6% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 21 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 3.86 = -0.98 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.86) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.87) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 64 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.2% Win Probability (After): 59.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 3:19 | |
(3rd & 18 at PITT 21) Payton Thorne pass complete to Harold Joiner for 3 yds to the Pitt 18 - PITT 7, MSU 7 | -0.61 | 59.6% | -1.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 18 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 2.88 = -0.61 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.88) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.27) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 7 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 67 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.6% Win Probability (After): 58.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 2:39 | |
(4th & 15 at PITT 18) Matt Coghlin 36 yd FG GOOD - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 0.73 | 58.8% | 8.3% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.27 = 0.73 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.27) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 67 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.8% Win Probability (After): 67.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 2:39 | |
(Kickoff at PITT 35) Stephen Rusnak kickoff for 57 yds , Israel Abanikanda return for 24 yds to the Pitt 32 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.44 | 40.9% | -0.9% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 68 Started Drive at: PITT 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.28 - 0.72 = -0.44 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.28) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.72) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.9% Win Probability (After): 40.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 2:33 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 32) PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Gavin Bartholomew) to the Pitt 27 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.79 | 41.5% | -1.6% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 73 Started Drive at: PITT 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 1.43 = -0.79 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.57) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 41.5% Win Probability (After): 39.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 2:26 | |
(1st & 15 at PITT 27) Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 26 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.89 | 39.9% | -1.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 74 Started Drive at: PITT 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.24 - 0.65 = -0.89 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.35) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.24) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 39.9% Win Probability (After): 38.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 1:53 | |
(2nd & 16 at PITT 26) Davis Beville pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 7 yds to the Pitt 33 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 0.11 | 39.5% | -0.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 67 Started Drive at: PITT 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - -0.22 = 0.11 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.22) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.10) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 39.5% Win Probability (After): 38.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 1:19 | |
(3rd & 9 at PITT 33) Davis Beville pass complete to Vincent Davis for 8 yds to the Pitt 41 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.14 | 39.1% | 1.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 59 Started Drive at: PITT 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.18 - -0.04 = -0.14 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.04) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.18) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 39.1% Win Probability (After): 40.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 0:38 | |
(4th & 1 at PITT 41) Davis Beville run for 1 yd to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 2.18 | 40.2% | 3.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 58 Started Drive at: PITT 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.05 - -0.13 = 2.18 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.13) Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.95) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.2% Win Probability (After): 43.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 0:29 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 42) Davis Beville pass incomplete to Vincent Davis - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.59 | 44.1% | -1.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58 Started Drive at: PITT 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 2.06 = -0.59 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.94) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.53) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 44.1% Win Probability (After): 42.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 0:24 | |
(2nd & 10 at PITT 42) Davis Beville pass complete to Vincent Davis for 1 yd to the Pitt 43 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.79 | 42.5% | -1.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 57 Started Drive at: PITT 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.68 - 1.47 = -0.79 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.53) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.32) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 16 yards Win Probability (Before): 42.5% Win Probability (After): 41.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 14:54 | |
(3rd & 9 at PITT 43) Davis Beville sacked by Brandon Wright for a loss of 9 yards to the Pitt 34 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -2.11 | 38.0% | -6.2% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 66 Started Drive at: PITT 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.39 - 0.71 = -2.11 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.29) Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 38.0% Win Probability (After): 31.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 14:01 | |
(4th & 18 at PITT 34) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 9 yds to the MchSt 32 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.69 | 30.7% | 3.8% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 68 Started Drive at: PITT 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.06 - -1.37 = -0.69 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.37) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.06) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 30.7% Win Probability (After): 34.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 13:56 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 32) Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 33 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.68 | 66.8% | -0.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 67 Started Drive at: MSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.34 - 2.02 = -0.68 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.02) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.34) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 66.8% Win Probability (After): 65.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 13:27 | |
(2nd & 9 at MSU 33) Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 37 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.17 | 66.0% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 63 Started Drive at: MSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.18 - 1.35 = -0.17 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.35) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.18) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 66.0% Win Probability (After): 65.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 12:51 | |
(3rd & 5 at MSU 37) Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 9 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 1.63 | 65.2% | 3.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 54 Started Drive at: MSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 1.18 = 1.63 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.18) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.81) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.2% Win Probability (After): 68.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 12:20 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 46) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 50 yds to the Pitt 4 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 3.19 | 67.8% | 7.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 4 Started Drive at: MSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.05 - 2.86 = 3.19 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.86) Score Difference (End): 3 (9.05) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 64 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.8% Win Probability (After): 75.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 12:07 | |
(1st & Goal at PITT 4) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.51 | 75.6% | -0.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4 Started Drive at: MSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.50 - 6.00 = -0.51 Score Difference (Before): 3 (9.00) Score Difference (End): 3 (8.50) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 64 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.6% Win Probability (After): 74.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 12:07 | |
(2nd & Goal at PITT 4) MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Matt Allen) to the Pitt 9 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.87 | 74.6% | -1.6% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 9 Started Drive at: MSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.61 - 5.49 = -0.87 Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.49) Score Difference (End): 3 (7.61) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 64 yards Win Probability (Before): 74.6% Win Probability (After): 73.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 11:59 | |
(2nd & Goal at PITT 9) Payton Thorne run for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 15 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -1.39 | 72.8% | -4.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 15 Started Drive at: MSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.22 - 4.62 = -1.39 Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.62) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.22) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 58 yards Win Probability (Before): 72.8% Win Probability (After): 68.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 11:17 | |
(3rd & Goal at PITT 15) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.84 | 69.0% | -2.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15 Started Drive at: MSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.56 - 3.40 = -0.84 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.40) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.56) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 58 yards Win Probability (Before): 69.0% Win Probability (After): 66.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 11:13 | |
(4th & Goal at PITT 15) Matt Coghlin 33 yd FG MISSED - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -3.34 | 67.9% | -5.4% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Missed Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 80 Started Drive at: MSU 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.61 - 2.73 = -3.34 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.73) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.39) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 58 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.9% Win Probability (After): 62.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 11:06 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 20) Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the Pitt 22 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.45 | 37.5% | -0.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 78 Started Drive at: PITT 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.15 - 0.60 = -0.45 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.40) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.85) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 37.5% Win Probability (After): 37.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:41 | |
(2nd & 8 at PITT 22) Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the Pitt 25 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.43 | 36.4% | -1.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 75 Started Drive at: PITT 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.27 - 0.16 = -0.43 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.84) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.27) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 36.4% Win Probability (After): 35.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 9:59 | |
(3rd & 5 at PITT 25) Davis Beville pass incomplete - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -1.67 | 35.9% | -5.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: PITT 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.80 - -0.13 = -1.67 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.13) Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.80) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 35.9% Win Probability (After): 30.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 9:51 | |
(4th & 5 at PITT 25) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 22 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 0.28 | 31.3% | 2.2% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 78 Started Drive at: PITT 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.43 - -1.70 = 0.28 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.70) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.43) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.3% Win Probability (After): 33.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 9:43 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 22) Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 23 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.53 | 67.2% | -1.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 77 Started Drive at: MSU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 1.35 = -0.53 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.35) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.2% Win Probability (After): 65.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 9:11 | |
(2nd & 9 at MSU 23) Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 15 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 1.70 | 65.1% | 3.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 62 Started Drive at: MSU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 0.65 = 1.70 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.65) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.1% Win Probability (After): 68.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 8:36 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 38) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Elijah Collins - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.54 | 66.5% | 0.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62 Started Drive at: MSU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.62 - 2.16 = -0.54 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.16) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.62) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards Win Probability (Before): 66.5% Win Probability (After): 66.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 8:27 | |
(2nd & 10 at MSU 38) Payton Thorne run for 11 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 1.15 | 65.6% | 1.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 51 Started Drive at: MSU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.65 - 1.50 = 1.15 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.50) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.65) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.6% Win Probability (After): 67.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 8:11 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 49) Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Pitt 48 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.34 | 67.2% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 48 Started Drive at: MSU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.31 - 2.65 = -0.34 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.65) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.31) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.2% Win Probability (After): 66.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 7:40 | |
(2nd & 7 at PITT 48) Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 47 Jordon Simmons fumbled, recovered by MchSt Payton Thorne - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -1.62 | 66.4% | -3.2% |
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Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 53 Started Drive at: MSU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.70 - 2.33 = -1.62 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.33) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.70) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 66.4% Win Probability (After): 63.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 7:00 | |
(3rd & 12 at MSU 47) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Montorie Foster - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -1.44 | 63.5% | -2.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53 Started Drive at: MSU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.61 - 0.83 = -1.44 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.83) Score Difference (End): 3 (2.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 63.5% Win Probability (After): 60.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 6:46 | |
(4th & 12 at MSU 47) Bryce Baringer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the Pitt 11 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 0.24 | 59.8% | 7.5% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 89 Started Drive at: MSU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - -0.35 = 0.24 Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.65) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.90) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.8% Win Probability (After): 67.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 6:40 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 11) Vincent Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 10 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.98 | 32.9% | -4.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 90 Started Drive at: PITT 11 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.83 - 0.15 = -0.98 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.85) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.9% Win Probability (After): 28.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 5:56 | |
(2nd & 11 at PITT 10) Davis Beville run for 8 yds to the Pitt 18 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 0.52 | 27.9% | 2.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 82 Started Drive at: PITT 11 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - -0.87 = 0.52 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.87) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.9% Win Probability (After): 30.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 5:33 | |
(3rd & 3 at PITT 18) Davis Beville pass incomplete to Jordan Addison - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -1.40 | 32.3% | -6.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 82 Started Drive at: PITT 11 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.78 - -0.38 = -1.40 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.38) Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.78) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.3% Win Probability (After): 26.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 5:20 | |
(4th & 3 at PITT 18) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 40 yds, downed at the MchSt 42 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.48 | 27.9% | 4.1% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 58 Started Drive at: PITT 11 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.06 - -1.58 = -0.48 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.58) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.06) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.9% Win Probability (After): 32.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 5:14 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 42) Jordon Simmons run for 7 yds to the MchSt 49 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 0.32 | 68.0% | 0.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 51 Started Drive at: MSU 42 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 2.16 = 0.32 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.16) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 68.0% Win Probability (After): 68.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 4:45 | |
(2nd & 3 at MSU 49) Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.54 | 69.0% | -1.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 50 Started Drive at: MSU 42 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 2.41 = -0.54 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.41) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.87) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 69.0% Win Probability (After): 67.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 4:33 | |
(3rd & 2 at 50) MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Spencer Brown) to the MchSt 45 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.74 | 67.2% | -1.6% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 55 Started Drive at: MSU 42 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 1.81 = -0.74 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.81) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.07) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.2% Win Probability (After): 65.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 4:12 | |
(3rd & 7 at MSU 45) Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 15 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 2.21 | 65.6% | 5.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 40 Started Drive at: MSU 42 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.16 - 0.95 = 2.21 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.95) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.6% Win Probability (After): 71.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 3:39 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 40) Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the Pitt 38 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.42 | 71.5% | -1.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 38 Started Drive at: MSU 42 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 3.00 = -0.42 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.00) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.58) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 71.5% Win Probability (After): 70.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 3:02 | |
(2nd & 8 at PITT 38) Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the Pitt 35 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 0.17 | 69.6% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 35 Started Drive at: MSU 42 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.51 - 2.34 = 0.17 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.34) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.51) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 28 yards Win Probability (Before): 69.6% Win Probability (After): 69.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 2:31 | |
(3rd & 5 at PITT 35) Jordon Simmons run for 6 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 1.17 | 68.5% | 3.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 29 Started Drive at: MSU 42 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.37 - 2.21 = 1.17 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.21) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.37) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 34 yards Win Probability (Before): 68.5% Win Probability (After): 72.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 2:03 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 29) Payton Thorne pass intercepted Brandon Hill return for no gain to the Pitt 13 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -3.57 | 72.9% | -7.7% |
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Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 87 Started Drive at: MSU 42 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - 3.17 = -3.57 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.17) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.60) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 34 yards Win Probability (Before): 72.9% Win Probability (After): 65.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:55 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 13) Vincent Davis run for 12 yds to the Pitt 25 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 0.60 | 35.1% | 2.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 75 Started Drive at: PITT 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 0.47 = 0.60 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.53) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.93) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 35.1% Win Probability (After): 37.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:47 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 25) Davis Beville pass complete to Jordan Addison for 10 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 0.54 | 37.3% | 0.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65 Started Drive at: PITT 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.45 - 0.92 = 0.54 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.08) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.55) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 37.3% Win Probability (After): 38.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:29 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 35) Davis Beville pass complete to Jordan Addison for 52 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 3.47 | 37.0% | 14.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 13 Started Drive at: PITT 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.48 - 1.01 = 3.47 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.99) Score Difference (End): -3 (1.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 37.0% Win Probability (After): 51.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:21 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 13) Vincent Davis run for 12 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST down - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 1.82 | 52.2% | 2.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 1 Started Drive at: PITT 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.24 - 4.42 = 1.82 Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.42) Score Difference (End): -3 (3.24) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 86 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.2% Win Probability (After): 54.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:08 | |
(1st & Goal at MSU 1) Vincent Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 4 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | -0.96 | 55.3% | -2.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 4 Started Drive at: PITT 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.28 - 6.24 = -0.96 Score Difference (Before): -3 (3.24) Score Difference (End): -3 (2.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 83 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.3% Win Probability (After): 53.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:03 | |
(2nd & Goal at MSU 4) Timeout PITTSBURGH, clock 01:03 - PITT 7, MSU 10 | 0.00 | 53.1% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4 Started Drive at: PITT 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.28 - 5.28 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.28) Score Difference (End): -3 (2.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 7, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 83 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.1% Win Probability (After): 53.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:02 | |
(2nd & Goal at MSU 4) Davis Beville pass complete to Jared Wayne for 4 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 14, MSU 10 | 1.72 | 52.3% | 8.4% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99 Started Drive at: PITT 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.28 = 1.72 Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.28) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 14, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 87 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.3% Win Probability (After): 60.7% Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:02 | |
(Kickoff at MSU 35) Ben Sauls kickoff for 65 yds , Jalen Nailor return for 16 yds to the MchSt 16 - PITT 14, MSU 10 | -0.50 | 42.5% | -1.2% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 84 Started Drive at: MSU 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.11 - 0.60 = -0.50 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.40) Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.89) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 14, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 42.5% Win Probability (After): 41.3% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:52 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 16) Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 9 yds to the MchSt 25 - PITT 14, MSU 10 | 0.38 | 41.7% | 0.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 75 Started Drive at: MSU 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 0.28 = 0.38 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.72) Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.34) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 14, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 41.7% Win Probability (After): 42.4% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:43 | |
(2nd & 1 at MSU 25) Payton Thorne sacked by Tyler Bentley for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 17 - PITT 14, MSU 10 | -0.35 | 41.9% | -3.5% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 83 Started Drive at: MSU 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 0.41 = -0.35 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.59) Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.94) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 14, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 41.9% Win Probability (After): 38.4% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:01 | |
(3rd & 9 at MSU 17) Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 18 - PITT 14, MSU 10 | 0.00 | 37.6% | 5.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 82 Started Drive at: MSU 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.43 - 0.00 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.00) Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 14, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 37.6% Win Probability (After): 42.6% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q3 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at MSU 35) Ben Sauls kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PITT 14, MSU 10 | 0.00 | 42.6% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.35 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.65) Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.65) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 14, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 42.6% Win Probability (After): 42.6% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:54 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 25) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor, broken up by A.J. Woods - PITT 14, MSU 10 | -0.68 | 44.0% | -3.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.25 - 0.43 = -0.68 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.57) Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.25) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 14, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 44.0% Win Probability (After): 40.5% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:50 | |
(2nd & 10 at MSU 25) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed - PITT 14, MSU 10 | -1.13 | 43.5% | -3.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.15 - -0.01 = -1.13 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.01) Score Difference (End): -4 (-5.15) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 14, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 43.5% Win Probability (After): 40.3% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:40 | |
(3rd & 10 at MSU 25) Payton Thorne run for 1 yd Payton Thorne fumbled, forced by John Morgan III, recovered by Pitt Cam Bright , return for 26 yds, (Sam Scarton KICK) - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 2.30 | 40.4% | -20.7% |
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Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.31 - -0.99 = 2.30 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.99) Score Difference (End): 11 (11.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.4% Win Probability (After): 19.7% Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:40 | |
(Kickoff at MSU 35) Ben Sauls kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 0.00 | 23.9% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.18 - -0.18 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.18) Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.18) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.9% Win Probability (After): 23.9% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:33 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 25) Jordon Simmons run for 10 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 1.10 | 23.9% | 0.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - -0.19 = 1.10 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.19) Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.9% Win Probability (After): 24.2% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:13 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 35) Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the MchSt 38 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -0.41 | 24.2% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 62 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 0.85 = -0.41 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.15) Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.57) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 24.2% Win Probability (After): 24.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 13:35 | |
(2nd & 7 at MSU 38) Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 4 yds to the MchSt 42 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -0.02 | 23.7% | 0.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 58 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.40 - 0.42 = -0.02 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.58) Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.60) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.7% Win Probability (After): 23.8% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:57 | |
(3rd & 3 at MSU 42) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -1.76 | 23.3% | -0.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.28 - 0.48 = -1.76 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.52) Score Difference (End): -11 (-12.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.3% Win Probability (After): 22.4% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:52 | |
(4th & 3 at MSU 42) Connor Heyward run for 7 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 3.04 | 21.7% | 3.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 51 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - -1.23 = 3.04 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-12.23) Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.19) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.7% Win Probability (After): 25.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 12:12 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 49) Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 8 yds to the Pitt 43 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 0.81 | 23.0% | 4.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 43 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.61 - 1.80 = 0.81 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.20) Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.0% Win Probability (After): 27.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 11:47 | |
(2nd & 2 at PITT 43) Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 0.19 | 25.0% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 40 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.79 - 2.60 = 0.19 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.40) Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.21) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 35 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.0% Win Probability (After): 25.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 11:03 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 40) Thorne, Payton pass incomplete, PENALTY PITTSBURGH roughing passer (Petrishen, John) 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST. - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 0.98 | 25.5% | 2.4% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 25 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.77 - 2.78 = 0.98 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.22) Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.23) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 35 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.5% Win Probability (After): 27.9% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:56 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 25) Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 29 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -1.53 | 27.9% | -4.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 29 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 3.78 = -1.53 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.22) Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.76) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.9% Win Probability (After): 23.9% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:24 | |
(2nd & 14 at PITT 29) Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the Pitt 28 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -0.78 | 23.8% | -1.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 28 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 2.38 = -0.78 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.62) Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.40) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.8% Win Probability (After): 22.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 9:43 | |
(3rd & 13 at PITT 28) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -0.92 | 23.3% | -2.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 28 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - 1.82 = -0.92 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.18) Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.10) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.3% Win Probability (After): 21.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 9:37 | |
(4th & 13 at PITT 28) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor, broken up by A.J. Woods - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -3.26 | 22.5% | -5.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 72 Started Drive at: MSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.44 - 0.83 = -3.26 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.17) Score Difference (End): 11 (13.44) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.5% Win Probability (After): 17.4% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 9:28 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 28) Davis Beville sacked by Jacob Slade for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 20 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -1.51 | 82.8% | -3.8% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 80 Started Drive at: PITT 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.92 - 2.42 = -1.51 Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.42) Score Difference (End): 11 (11.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, -8 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.8% Win Probability (After): 79.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 8:57 | |
(2nd & 18 at PITT 20) Vincent Davis run for 12 yds to the Pitt 32 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 0.33 | 79.2% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 68 Started Drive at: PITT 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 0.92 = 0.33 Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.92) Score Difference (End): 11 (12.26) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.2% Win Probability (After): 78.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 8:22 | |
(3rd & 6 at PITT 32) Davis Beville pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 5 yds to the Pitt 37 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -0.38 | 81.4% | -2.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 63 Started Drive at: PITT 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.76 - 1.14 = -0.38 Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.14) Score Difference (End): 11 (11.76) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.4% Win Probability (After): 79.2% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 7:29 | |
(4th & 1 at PITT 37) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 47 yds, downed at the MchSt 16 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -0.02 | 80.5% | -2.5% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 84 Started Drive at: PITT 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.50 - 0.52 = -0.02 Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.52) Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.50) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.5% Win Probability (After): 78.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 7:22 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 16) Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the MchSt 21 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -0.09 | 20.5% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 79 Started Drive at: MSU 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.60 - -0.51 = -0.09 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.51) Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.60) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 20.5% Win Probability (After): 19.8% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 6:52 | |
(2nd & 5 at MSU 21) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Elijah Collins - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -0.97 | 19.1% | -1.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 79 Started Drive at: MSU 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.51 - -0.54 = -0.97 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.54) Score Difference (End): -11 (-12.51) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.1% Win Probability (After): 17.9% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 6:48 | |
(3rd & 5 at MSU 21) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -1.40 | 17.6% | -2.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 79 Started Drive at: MSU 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.85 - -1.45 = -1.40 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-12.45) Score Difference (End): -11 (-13.85) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 17.6% Win Probability (After): 15.2% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 6:40 | |
(4th & 5 at MSU 21) Bryce Baringer punt for 53 yds , Jordan Addison returns for no gain to the Pitt 26 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 0.53 | 14.9% | 0.6% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 74 Started Drive at: MSU 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.31 - -2.84 = 0.53 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-13.84) Score Difference (End): 11 (13.31) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.9% Win Probability (After): 15.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 6:31 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 26) Davis Beville pass complete to Jordan Addison for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 25 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -1.00 | 84.6% | -2.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 75 Started Drive at: PITT 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.29 - 2.29 = -1.00 Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.29) Score Difference (End): 11 (12.29) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 84.6% Win Probability (After): 82.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 6:21 | |
(2nd & 11 at PITT 25) Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 26 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -0.68 | 82.8% | -1.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74 Started Drive at: PITT 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.59 - 1.27 = -0.68 Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.27) Score Difference (End): 11 (11.59) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.8% Win Probability (After): 80.9% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 5:42 | |
(3rd & 10 at PITT 26) Davis Beville sacked by Drew Beesley and Brandon Wright for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 23 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -1.65 | 81.9% | -4.8% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 77 Started Drive at: PITT 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.04 - 0.60 = -1.65 Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.60) Score Difference (End): 11 (9.96) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.9% Win Probability (After): 77.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 4:58 | |
(4th & 13 at PITT 23) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 36 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 0.05 | 77.4% | -0.8% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 64 Started Drive at: PITT 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.96 - -1.02 = 0.05 Score Difference (Before): 11 (9.98) Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.04) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.4% Win Probability (After): 76.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 4:47 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 36) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 5 yds to the MchSt 41 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 0.14 | 22.5% | 0.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 59 Started Drive at: MSU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 0.96 = 0.14 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.04) Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.90) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.5% Win Probability (After): 22.7% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 4:21 | |
(2nd & 5 at MSU 41) Jordon Simmons run for no gain to the MchSt 41 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -0.85 | 21.9% | -3.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59 Started Drive at: MSU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - 1.10 = -0.85 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.90) Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.76) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.9% Win Probability (After): 18.7% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 3:47 | |
(3rd & 5 at MSU 41) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Maliq Carr - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -1.67 | 17.5% | -2.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59 Started Drive at: MSU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.43 - 0.24 = -1.67 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.76) Score Difference (End): -11 (-12.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 17.5% Win Probability (After): 15.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 3:41 | |
(4th & 5 at MSU 41) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 3.34 | 14.7% | 7.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 50 Started Drive at: MSU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.90 - -1.44 = 3.34 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-12.44) Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.10) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.7% Win Probability (After): 22.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 3:22 | |
(1st & 10 at 50) Payton Thorne sacked by Bam Brima for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 40 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -1.80 | 22.1% | -5.6% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 60 Started Drive at: MSU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.09 - 1.89 = -1.80 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.11) Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.91) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.1% Win Probability (After): 16.4% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 2:45 | |
(2nd & 20 at MSU 40) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Connor Heyward - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -0.90 | 16.0% | -1.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60 Started Drive at: MSU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.78 - 0.12 = -0.90 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.88) Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.78) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 16.0% Win Probability (After): 14.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 2:34 | |
(3rd & 20 at MSU 40) Payton Thorne pass complete to Harold Joiner for 8 yds to the MchSt 48 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -0.80 | 14.9% | -2.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 52 Started Drive at: MSU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.57 - -0.77 = -0.80 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.77) Score Difference (End): -11 (-12.57) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.9% Win Probability (After): 12.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 2:11 | |
(4th & 12 at MSU 48) Bryce Baringer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the Pitt 9 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 0.31 | 12.3% | 1.6% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 91 Started Drive at: MSU 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.25 - -1.57 = 0.31 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-12.57) Score Difference (End): 11 (12.25) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 12.3% Win Probability (After): 13.9% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 2:01 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 9) Jordan Addison run for 28 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 1.55 | 86.3% | 2.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 63 Started Drive at: PITT 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.84 - 1.28 = 1.55 Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.28) Score Difference (End): 11 (13.84) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, 28 yards Win Probability (Before): 86.3% Win Probability (After): 89.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 1:38 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 37) PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Carter Warren) to the Pitt 32 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -0.58 | 90.5% | -3.2% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 68 Started Drive at: PITT 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 2.85 = -0.58 Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.85) Score Difference (End): 11 (13.27) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, 28 yards Win Probability (Before): 90.5% Win Probability (After): 87.3% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 1:21 | |
(1st & 15 at PITT 32) Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 6 yds to the Pitt 38 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 0.07 | 89.9% | -1.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 62 Started Drive at: PITT 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.36 - 2.29 = 0.07 Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.29) Score Difference (End): 11 (13.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 34 yards Win Probability (Before): 89.9% Win Probability (After): 88.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:52 | |
(2nd & 9 at PITT 38) Davis Beville sacked by Simeon Barrow and Jacub Panasiuk for a loss of 12 yards to the Pitt 26 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -2.10 | 91.0% | -5.5% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 74 Started Drive at: PITT 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.29 - 2.38 = -2.10 Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.38) Score Difference (End): 11 (11.29) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.0% Win Probability (After): 85.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:09 | |
(3rd & 21 at PITT 26) Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 9 yds to the Pitt 35 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -0.45 | 86.4% | -1.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 65 Started Drive at: PITT 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.14 - 0.30 = -0.45 Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.30) Score Difference (End): 11 (10.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 86.4% Win Probability (After): 85.2% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 14:53 | |
(4th & 12 at PITT 35) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 30 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -0.46 | 83.8% | -1.5% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 70 Started Drive at: PITT 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.69 - -0.24 = -0.46 Score Difference (Before): 11 (10.76) Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.31) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 83.8% Win Probability (After): 82.2% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 14:48 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 30) Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 15 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 1.04 | 16.7% | 2.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 55 Started Drive at: MSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.74 - 0.70 = 1.04 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.30) Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.26) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 16.7% Win Probability (After): 19.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 14:19 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 45) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 2 yds to the MchSt 47 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -0.40 | 18.6% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 53 Started Drive at: MSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.30 - 1.70 = -0.40 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.30) Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.70) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.6% Win Probability (After): 18.3% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:52 | |
(2nd & 8 at MSU 47) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 11 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 1.42 | 15.8% | 4.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 42 Started Drive at: MSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.66 - 1.24 = 1.42 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.76) Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.34) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.8% Win Probability (After): 19.8% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:26 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 42) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 13 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 0.97 | 19.1% | 2.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 29 Started Drive at: MSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 2.64 = 0.97 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.36) Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.1% Win Probability (After): 21.7% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 12:53 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 29) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 5 yds to the Pitt 24 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 0.11 | 21.2% | 0.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 24 Started Drive at: MSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.72 - 3.61 = 0.11 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.39) Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 46 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.2% Win Probability (After): 21.8% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 12:16 | |
(2nd & 5 at PITT 24) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -0.79 | 20.2% | -1.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24 Started Drive at: MSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 3.70 = -0.79 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.30) Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.08) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 46 yards Win Probability (Before): 20.2% Win Probability (After): 18.8% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 12:11 | |
(3rd & 5 at PITT 24) Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 25 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -1.51 | 18.8% | -5.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 25 Started Drive at: MSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.39 - 2.90 = -1.51 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.10) Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.61) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.8% Win Probability (After): 12.9% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 11:30 | |
(4th & 6 at PITT 25) Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 8 yds to the Pitt 17 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 3.21 | 12.8% | 10.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 17 Started Drive at: MSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.62 - 1.41 = 3.21 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.59) Score Difference (End): -11 (-6.38) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 53 yards Win Probability (Before): 12.8% Win Probability (After): 23.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 10:58 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 17) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 6 yds to the Pitt 11 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 0.13 | 21.9% | 0.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 11 Started Drive at: MSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.78 - 4.65 = 0.13 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.35) Score Difference (End): -11 (-6.22) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 59 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.9% Win Probability (After): 22.8% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 10:11 | |
(2nd & 4 at PITT 11) Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the Pitt 5 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 10 | 0.88 | 20.4% | 6.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 5 Started Drive at: MSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.64 - 4.76 = 0.88 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.24) Score Difference (End): -11 (-5.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 20.4% Win Probability (After): 27.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 9:56 | |
(1st & Goal at PITT 5) MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Maliq Carr) to the Pitt 10 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -0.80 | 22.2% | -1.7% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 10 Started Drive at: MSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.82 - 5.62 = -0.80 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-5.38) Score Difference (End): -11 (-6.18) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.2% Win Probability (After): 20.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 9:28 | |
(1st & Goal at PITT 10) Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the Pitt 9 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -0.44 | 20.1% | -0.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 9 Started Drive at: MSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.36 - 4.80 = -0.44 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.20) Score Difference (End): -11 (-6.64) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 66 yards Win Probability (Before): 20.1% Win Probability (After): 19.7% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 8:43 | |
(2nd & Goal at PITT 9) Payton Thorne sacked by Devin Danielson for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 15 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -1.52 | 16.9% | -4.4% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 15 Started Drive at: MSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 4.33 = -1.52 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.67) Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.18) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 60 yards Win Probability (Before): 16.9% Win Probability (After): 12.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 8:06 | |
(3rd & Goal at PITT 15) Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 15 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - PITT 21, MSU 16 | 2.76 | 13.5% | 17.6% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 99 Started Drive at: MSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 3.24 = 2.76 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.76) Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 16 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 13.5% Win Probability (After): 31.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 8:06 | |
(3rd & Goal at PITT 3) MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 8 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -7.59 | 49.0% | -40.8% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99 Started Drive at: MSU 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.78 - 4.81 = -7.59 Score Difference (Before): -5 (-0.19) Score Difference (End): -11 (-13.78) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.0% Win Probability (After): 8.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 8:06 | |
(Kickoff at PITT 35) Stephen Rusnak kickoff for 56 yds , Vincent Davis return for 13 yds to the Pitt 22 - PITT 21, MSU 10 | -1.12 | 96.0% | -1.2% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 78 Started Drive at: PITT 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 1.75 = -1.12 Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.75) Score Difference (End): 11 (11.64) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 10 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 96.0% Win Probability (After): 94.8% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 7:55 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 22) Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 22 - PITT 21, MSU 16 | -1.17 | 96.2% | -22.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78 Started Drive at: PITT 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - 1.63 = -1.17 Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.63) Score Difference (End): 5 (5.46) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 16 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 96.2% Win Probability (After): 73.9% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 10 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 7:14 | |
(2nd & 10 at PITT 22) Davis Beville pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 9 yds to the Pitt 31 - PITT 21, MSU 16 | 0.39 | 73.9% | 0.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 69 Started Drive at: PITT 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.93 - 0.53 = 0.39 Score Difference (Before): 5 (5.53) Score Difference (End): 5 (5.93) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 16 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 73.9% Win Probability (After): 74.4% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 6:25 | |
(3rd & 1 at PITT 31) Vincent Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 29 - PITT 21, MSU 16 | -2.09 | 78.1% | -8.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 71 Started Drive at: PITT 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.18 - 0.90 = -2.09 Score Difference (Before): 5 (5.90) Score Difference (End): 5 (3.82) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 16 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.1% Win Probability (After): 69.4% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 5:37 | |
(4th & 3 at PITT 29) Kirk Christodoulou punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 29 - PITT 21, MSU 16 | -0.28 | 71.0% | -3.0% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71 Started Drive at: PITT 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.43 - -1.15 = -0.28 Score Difference (Before): 5 (3.85) Score Difference (End): -5 (-3.57) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 21, MSU 16 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 71.0% Win Probability (After): 68.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 5:32 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 29) Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the MchSt 31 - PITT 21, MSU 16 | -0.53 | 31.2% | -4.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 69 Started Drive at: MSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.67 - 1.20 = -0.53 Score Difference (Before): -5 (-3.80) Score Difference (End): -5 (-4.33) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 16 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.2% Win Probability (After): 27.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 5:02 | |
(2nd & 8 at MSU 31) Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 1 yd to the MchSt 32 - PITT 21, MSU 16 | -0.82 | 26.7% | -3.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 68 Started Drive at: MSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 0.83 = -0.82 Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.17) Score Difference (End): -5 (-4.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 16 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.7% Win Probability (After): 22.8% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 4:28 | |
(3rd & 7 at MSU 32) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 11 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 16 | 2.14 | 22.5% | 12.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 57 Started Drive at: MSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 0.03 = 2.14 Score Difference (Before): -5 (-4.97) Score Difference (End): -5 (-2.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 16 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.5% Win Probability (After): 35.2% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 4:11 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 43) Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 11 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 16 | 0.79 | 30.7% | 7.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 46 Started Drive at: MSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.72 - 1.93 = 0.79 Score Difference (Before): -5 (-3.07) Score Difference (End): -5 (-2.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 16 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 30.7% Win Probability (After): 37.8% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 3:53 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 46) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre Mosley, broken up by Erick Hallett - PITT 21, MSU 16 | -0.54 | 35.5% | -1.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46 Started Drive at: MSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 2.71 = -0.54 Score Difference (Before): -5 (-2.29) Score Difference (End): -5 (-2.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 16 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 35.5% Win Probability (After): 34.2% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 3:49 | |
(2nd & 10 at PITT 46) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor - PITT 21, MSU 16 | -0.63 | 31.9% | -4.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46 Started Drive at: MSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.61 - 2.25 = -0.63 Score Difference (Before): -5 (-2.75) Score Difference (End): -5 (-3.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 16 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.9% Win Probability (After): 27.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 3:44 | |
(3rd & 10 at PITT 46) Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 10 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 16 | 1.68 | 27.6% | 12.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 36 Started Drive at: MSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.31 - 1.63 = 1.68 Score Difference (Before): -5 (-3.37) Score Difference (End): -5 (-1.69) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 16 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 35 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.6% Win Probability (After): 40.2% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 3:13 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 36) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre Mosley - PITT 21, MSU 16 | -0.23 | 38.1% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36 Started Drive at: MSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 3.10 = -0.23 Score Difference (Before): -5 (-1.90) Score Difference (End): -5 (-2.13) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 16 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 35 yards Win Probability (Before): 38.1% Win Probability (After): 38.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 3:06 | |
(2nd & 10 at PITT 36) Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor - PITT 21, MSU 16 | -0.62 | 33.8% | -4.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36 Started Drive at: MSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.05 - 2.67 = -0.62 Score Difference (Before): -5 (-2.33) Score Difference (End): -5 (-2.95) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 16 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 35 yards Win Probability (Before): 33.8% Win Probability (After): 29.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 3:06 | |
(3rd & 10 at PITT 36) Timeout PITTSBURGH, clock 03:06 - PITT 21, MSU 16 | 0.00 | 29.2% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36 Started Drive at: MSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.05 - 2.05 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -5 (-2.95) Score Difference (End): -5 (-2.95) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 16 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 35 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.2% Win Probability (After): 29.2% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 3:00 | |
(3rd & 10 at PITT 36) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 14 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 16 | 1.98 | 31.3% | 15.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 22 Started Drive at: MSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.02 - 2.04 = 1.98 Score Difference (Before): -5 (-2.96) Score Difference (End): -5 (-0.98) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 16 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 49 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.3% Win Probability (After): 47.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 2:51 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 22) Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 22 yds for a TD, (Payton Thorne pass to Jalen Nailor for Two-Point Conversion) - PITT 21, MSU 24 | 4.05 | 46.2% | 34.3% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 99 Started Drive at: MSU 29 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 3.95 = 4.05 Score Difference (Before): -5 (-1.05) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 24 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 71 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.2% Win Probability (After): 80.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 2:51 | |
(Kickoff at PITT 35) Stephen Rusnak kickoff for 40 yds fair catch by Vincent Davis at the Pitt 1 - PITT 21, MSU 24 | -1.22 | 23.2% | -5.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99 Started Drive at: PITT 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.29 - 0.93 = -1.22 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.07) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.29) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 24 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.2% Win Probability (After): 18.2% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 2:43 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 25) Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 27 - PITT 21, MSU 24 | -0.38 | 23.0% | -1.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73 Started Drive at: PITT 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.51 - 0.89 = -0.38 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.11) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.49) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 24 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.0% Win Probability (After): 22.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 2:25 | |
(2nd & 8 at PITT 27) Davis Beville sacked by Jacub Panasiuk and Jacob Slade for a loss of 7 yards to the Pitt 20 - PITT 21, MSU 24 | -1.08 | 21.3% | -6.3% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 80 Started Drive at: PITT 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.50 - 0.57 = -1.08 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.43) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.50) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 24 Drive Summary: 2 plays, -5 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.3% Win Probability (After): 15.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 2:24 | |
(3rd & 15 at PITT 20) Timeout PITTSBURGH, clock 02:24 - PITT 21, MSU 24 | 0.00 | 14.4% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80 Started Drive at: PITT 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.50 - -0.50 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.50) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.50) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 24 Drive Summary: 2 plays, -5 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.4% Win Probability (After): 14.4% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 2:12 | |
(3rd & 15 at PITT 20) Davis Beville pass complete to Vincent Davis for 7 yds to the Pitt 27 - PITT 21, MSU 24 | -0.88 | 13.8% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 73 Started Drive at: PITT 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.11 - -0.23 = -0.88 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.23) Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.11) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 24 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 13.8% Win Probability (After): 13.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 1:50 | |
(4th & 8 at PITT 27) Davis Beville pass complete to Jordan Addison for 8 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 24 | 2.31 | 13.9% | 11.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 65 Started Drive at: PITT 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.50 - -0.81 = 2.31 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.81) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.50) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 24 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 10 yards Win Probability (Before): 13.9% Win Probability (After): 25.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 1:35 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 35) Davis Beville pass complete to Jordan Addison for 24 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 24 | 0.98 | 19.5% | 11.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 41 Started Drive at: PITT 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 1.13 = 0.98 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.87) Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.89) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 24 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 34 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.5% Win Probability (After): 30.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 1:15 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 41) Davis Beville pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 7 yds to the MchSt 34 - PITT 21, MSU 24 | 0.89 | 26.6% | 13.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 34 Started Drive at: PITT 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.88 - 1.99 = 0.89 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.01) Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.12) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 24 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.6% Win Probability (After): 40.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 0:44 | |
(2nd & 3 at MSU 34) Davis Beville pass complete to Lucas Krull for 8 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST down - PITT 21, MSU 24 | 0.64 | 39.4% | 17.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 26 Started Drive at: PITT 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 2.81 = 0.64 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.19) Score Difference (End): -3 (0.45) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 24 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards Win Probability (Before): 39.4% Win Probability (After): 56.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 0:22 | |
(1st & 10 at MSU 26) Davis Beville pass intercepted for a TD Cal Haladay return for 78 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) - PITT 21, MSU 31 | -10.10 | 54.1% | -53.4% |
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Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99 Started Drive at: PITT 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.10 = -10.10 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.10) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 21, MSU 31 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 127 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.1% Win Probability (After): 0.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 24 (31) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 0:22 | |
(Kickoff at PITT 35) Stephen Rusnak on-side kick recovered by MICHIGAN ST at the Pitt 22 - PITT 21, MSU 31 | 3.02 | 0.8% | 45.9% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 22 Started Drive at: PITT 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.20 - 0.18 = 3.02 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.82) Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.80) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PITT 21, MSU 31 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.8% Win Probability (After): 46.7% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 31 (31) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 0:20 | |
(1st & 10 at PITT 22) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 23 - PITT 21, MSU 31 | -0.63 | 99.2% | 0.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 23 Started Drive at: PITT 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.21 - 2.84 = -0.63 Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.84) Score Difference (End): 10 (12.21) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PITT 21, MSU 31 Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.2% Win Probability (After): 100.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 31 (31) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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