Cincinnati 6 @ Alabama 27

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 1.66 | Odds: ALA -13, O/U 57.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 2132 ESPN team id 333
Total Plays 7183
Total EPA -12.498.08
  Offensive EPA -12.6312.28
  Special Teams EPA 2.65-3.38
  Penalty EPA -1.47-0.23
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA -1.04-0.59
Production ESPN team id 2132 ESPN team id 333
Scrimmage Plays 5875
  Yards 218491
  Yards/Play 3.766.55
  EPA -12.6312.28
  EPA/Play -0.220.16
Passes 38 (66%)30 (40%)
  Yards 144181
  Yards/Play 3.796.03
  EPA -17.982.91
  EPA/Play -0.470.10
Rushes 20 (34%)45 (60%)
  Yards 112309
  Yards/Play 5.606.87
  EPA 5.359.37
  EPA/Play 0.270.21
Rushing ESPN team id 2132 ESPN team id 333
Scrimmage Plays 5875
Rushes 20 (34%)45 (60%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 1 (5%)2 (4%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 1 (100%)2 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 2 (10%)4 (9%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 4 (20%)13 (29%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 13 (65%)29 (64%)
OL Line Yards 48.881.2
  Per Carry 2.441.80
Highlight Yards 20.5107
  Per Rush Opportunity 1.583.69
Explosiveness ESPN team id 2132 ESPN team id 333
Total Plays 7183
Scrimmage Plays 5875
Explosive Plays 1 (2%)4 (5%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 1 (3%)2 (7%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 0 (0%)2 (4%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -15.06-0.31
  EPA/Play -0.260.00
  When Passing -20.41-5.53
    EPA/Play -0.54-0.18
  When Rushing 5.355.22
    EPA/Play 0.270.12
Situational ESPN team id 2132 ESPN team id 333
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 25 (43%)40 (53%)
  When Passing 11 (29%)12 (40%)
  When Rushing 14 (70%)28 (62%)
  On Standard Downs 22 (54%)33 (59%)
  On Passing Downs 3 (18%)7 (37%)
  On Early Downs 23 (53%)33 (54%)
  On Late Downs 2 (13%)7 (50%)
  During "Middle 8" 7 (47%)5 (63%)
Early Downs 4361
  First Downs Created 11 (26%)18 (30%)
  EPA 5.6510.56
  EPA/Play 0.130.17
  Passes 25 (58%)21 (34%)
  Rushes 18 (42%)40 (66%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 10 (40%)8 (38%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 13 (72%)25 (63%)
"Middle 8" Plays 158
  EPA 2.617.06
  EPA/play 0.170.88
  Passes 10 (67%)5 (63%)
  Rushes 5 (33%)3 (38%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 4 (40%)3 (60%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 3 (60%)2 (67%)
Drives ESPN team id 2132 ESPN team id 333
Total 1010
Avg Starting Field Position Own 28Own 22
Plays/Drive 7.939.25
Yards/Drive 33.5558.64
Available Yards % 47%75%
Defensive ESPN team id 2132 ESPN team id 333
Scrimmage Plays 7558
Stop Rate 11%62%
Havoc Plays Created 8 (11%)14 (24%)
  Passing 5 (17%)13 (34%)
  Rushing 3 (7%)1 (5%)
TFLs Generated 78
  Passing 47
  Rushing 31
Sacks Generated 2 (7%)6 (16%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 10
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 2132 ESPN team id 333
Turnovers 21
  Fumbles 20
  Fumbles Lost 20
  Fumbles Recovered 00
  Interceptions 01
Turnover Margin -11
Expected Turnovers 1.01.2
Expected Turnover Margin 0.2-0.2
Turnover Luck (pts) -6.16.1
Special Teams ESPN team id 2132 ESPN team id 333
Total Plays 13 8
Total EPA 2.65 -3.38
  Field Goal EPA 1.83 -1.35
  Punting EPA 0.61 -0.58
  Kickoff Return EPA 0.2 -1.46

Cincinnati [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Desmond Ridder 17/32, 144 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 6 Scks, 16.9 xQBR 3.79 -0.47 -17.98 29% -19.0%
Rush attempts
Jerome Ford 15 carries, 77 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.13 0.22 3.28 73% -3.0%
Desmond Ridder 4 carries, 32 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 0.36 1.46 50% 0.0%
Ryan Montgomery 1 carry, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 0.61 0.61 100% 0.0%
Pass targets
Michael Young Jr. 4 catches (6 targets), 55 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.75 0.29 1.72 50% 0.0%
Tyler Scott 4 catches (7 targets), 43 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.75 0.14 1.00 43% 1.0%
Josh Whyle 1 catch (1 target), 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.00 0.89 0.89 100% 0.0%
Jerome Ford 3 catches (3 targets), 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.67 0.10 0.30 67% 0.0%
Alec Pierce 2 catches (5 targets), 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.50 -0.15 -0.74 20% -2.0%
Jadon Thompson 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.76 -0.76 0% -2.0%
Tre Tucker 2 catches (5 targets), 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 -0.88 -4.38 20% -6.0%
Leonard Taylor 1 catch (4 targets), -6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -6.00 -1.36 -5.44 0% -3.0%

Alabama [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Bryce Young 17/28, 181 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 2 Scks, 53.2 xQBR 6.03 0.10 2.91 40% 3.0%
Rush attempts
Brian Robinson Jr. 26 carries, 204 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.85 0.43 11.18 73% 14.0%
Jameson Williams 1 carry, 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 18.00 2.00 2.00 100% 6.0%
Trey Sanders 14 carries, 67 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.79 -0.07 -1.01 50% 1.0%
Bryce Young 4 carries, 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 -0.70 -2.80 25% -2.0%
Pass targets
Jameson Williams 7 catches (8 targets), 62 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.86 0.62 4.98 62% 2.0%
Ja'Corey Brooks 4 catches (7 targets), 66 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.50 0.41 2.87 43% 4.0%
Slade Bolden 3 catches (3 targets), 31 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.33 0.94 2.81 67% 7.0%
Cameron Latu 1 catch (1 target), 9 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 1.96 1.96 100% 1.0%
Jahleel Billingsley 1 catch (2 targets), 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.00 0.32 0.65 50% 0.0%
JoJo Earle 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.16 -0.16 0% 0.0%
Javon Baker 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.25 -1.25 0% 0.0%
Trey Sanders 1 catch (2 targets), 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.83 -1.65 0% -1.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 1:36 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 10 at CIN 44) Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 44 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) - CIN 3, ALA 17 5.38 89.9% 4.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 99

Started Drive at: ALA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.62 = 5.38

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.62)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 94 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.9%

Win Probability (After): 94.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 10:22 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 3 at ALA 22) Desmond Ridder sacked by Brian Branch and Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 26 - CIN 6, ALA 24 -4.07 0.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 74

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.64 - 1.43 = -4.07

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-16.57)

Score Difference (End): 18 (20.64)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:21 ESPN team id 333 (3rd & 16 at ALA 24) Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 20 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST down - CIN 6, ALA 17 3.06 95.2% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 56

Started Drive at: ALA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 0.13 = 3.06

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.13)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.8%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:54 ESPN team id 333 (3rd & 6 at ALA 30) Bryce Young pass intercepted Bryan Cook return for no gain to the Cincy 49 - CIN 6, ALA 17 -2.98 95.5% -4.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 51

Started Drive at: ALA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.85 - 1.14 = -2.98

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.14)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.15)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.5%

Win Probability (After): 90.6%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:10 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 5 at ALA 38) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard Taylor - CIN 6, ALA 27 -2.94 0.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 62

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.49 - 0.46 = -2.94

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.54)

Score Difference (End): 21 (23.49)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 6, ALA 27

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 4:47 ESPN team id 333 (4th & 6 at CIN 26) Will Reichard 44 yd FG MISSED - CIN 3, ALA 10 -2.62 90.4% -5.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 74

Started Drive at: ALA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.92 - 1.71 = -2.62

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.71)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.08)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.4%

Win Probability (After): 84.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 12:18 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 4 at CIN 43) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 28 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST down - CIN 6, ALA 24 2.43 0.6% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 29

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 0.91 = 2.43

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.09)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-14.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.9%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:20 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 10 at ALA 31) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 22 yds to the Alab 9 for a 1ST down - CIN 0, ALA 7 2.33 16.5% 2.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 9

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.15 - 2.81 = 2.33

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.19)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-1.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.5%

Win Probability (After): 19.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:20 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 5 at CIN 30) Desmond Ridder sacked by DJ Dale for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 21 - CIN 3, ALA 10 -2.20 13.9% -3.9%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 79

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.90 - 0.30 = -2.20

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.70)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.9%

Win Probability (After): 10.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:53 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 10 at CIN 44) Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 17 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Deshawn Pace) to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST down - CIN 6, ALA 17 2.18 96.7% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 13

Started Drive at: ALA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.30 - 3.08 = 2.18

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.12)

Score Difference (End): 11 (16.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 97.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 12:40 ESPN team id 333 (3rd & 2 at ALA 47) Jameson Williams run for 18 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST down - CIN 0, ALA 0 2.00 82.1% 6.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 35

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.81 - 1.81 = 2.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.81)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.1%

Win Probability (After): 88.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:47 ESPN team id 333 (4th & 6 at CIN 26) Will Reichard 44 yd FG MISSED - CIN 3, ALA 10 -2.62 90.4% -5.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 74

Started Drive at: ALA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.92 - 1.71 = -2.62

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.71)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.08)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.4%

Win Probability (After): 84.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:56 ESPN team id 333 (4th & Goal at CIN 8) Will Reichard 26 yd FG GOOD - CIN 3, ALA 10 0.18 84.9% 5.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.82 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.82)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.9%

Win Probability (After): 90.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 4:54 ESPN team id 333 (3rd & 6 at ALA 30) Bryce Young pass intercepted Bryan Cook return for no gain to the Cincy 49 - CIN 6, ALA 17 -2.98 95.5% -4.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 51

Started Drive at: ALA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.85 - 1.14 = -2.98

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.14)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.15)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.5%

Win Probability (After): 90.6%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:36 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 10 at CIN 44) Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 44 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) - CIN 3, ALA 17 5.38 89.9% 4.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 99

Started Drive at: ALA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.62 = 5.38

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.62)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 94 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.9%

Win Probability (After): 94.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 9:51 ESPN team id 333 (1st & Goal at CIN 8) Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 8 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) - CIN 0, ALA 7 1.52 87.0% 4.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.48 = 1.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.48)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.0%

Win Probability (After): 91.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:20 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 5 at CIN 30) Desmond Ridder sacked by DJ Dale for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 21 - CIN 3, ALA 10 -2.20 13.9% -3.9%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 79

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.90 - 0.30 = -2.20

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.70)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.9%

Win Probability (After): 10.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 4:52 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & Goal at ALA 15) Cole Smith 33 yd FG GOOD - CIN 3, ALA 7 0.41 15.8% 3.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.59 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.41)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.8%

Win Probability (After): 19.4%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:49 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 4 at CIN 36) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre Tucker, broken up by Phidarian Mathis - CIN 3, ALA 10 -1.49 15.8% -3.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: CIN 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.76 - 0.73 = -1.49

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.27)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.8%

Win Probability (After): 12.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 13:05 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 3 at ALA 46) Bryce Young run for 1 yd to the Alab 47 - CIN 0, ALA 0 -0.81 87.8% -3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 53

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 2.64 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.8%

Win Probability (After): 84.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 9:51 ESPN team id 333 (1st & Goal at CIN 8) Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 8 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) - CIN 0, ALA 7 1.52 87.0% 4.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.48 = 1.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.48)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.0%

Win Probability (After): 91.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:52 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & Goal at ALA 15) Cole Smith 33 yd FG GOOD - CIN 3, ALA 7 0.41 15.8% 3.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.59 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.41)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.8%

Win Probability (After): 19.4%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:56 ESPN team id 333 (4th & Goal at CIN 8) Will Reichard 26 yd FG GOOD - CIN 3, ALA 10 0.18 84.9% 5.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.82 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.82)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.9%

Win Probability (After): 90.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:36 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 10 at CIN 44) Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 44 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) - CIN 3, ALA 17 5.38 89.9% 4.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 99

Started Drive at: ALA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.62 = 5.38

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.62)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 94 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.9%

Win Probability (After): 94.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 9:57 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 5 at ALA 19) Cole Smith 37 yd FG GOOD - CIN 6, ALA 17 1.42 5.4% 2.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.58 = 1.42

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.42)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.4%

Win Probability (After): 8.3%

Away Score: 3 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 13:52 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 6 at CIN 9) Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 9 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) - CIN 6, ALA 24 1.96 97.9% 1.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: ALA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.04 = 1.96

Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.04)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 6:20 ESPN team id 333 (4th & 8 at CIN 25) Will Reichard 43 yd FG GOOD - CIN 6, ALA 27 1.10 99.7% 0.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: ALA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.90 = 1.10

Score Difference (Before): 18 (19.90)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 27

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 333 (Kickoff at ALA 35) Alex Bales kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - CIN 0, ALA 0 0.00 83.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.3%

Win Probability (After): 83.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at ALA 25) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Alab 31 - CIN 0, ALA 0 0.42 83.3% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.28 - 0.86 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.3%

Win Probability (After): 83.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:42 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 4 at ALA 31) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 34 - CIN 0, ALA 0 -0.23 84.0% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 66

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 1.44 = -0.23

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.44)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.0%

Win Probability (After): 83.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:16 ESPN team id 333 (3rd & 1 at ALA 34) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST down - CIN 0, ALA 0 0.77 83.4% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 61

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.10 - 1.34 = 0.77

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.4%

Win Probability (After): 85.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:40 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at ALA 39) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Alab 46 - CIN 0, ALA 0 0.52 85.3% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 54

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 2.10 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.3%

Win Probability (After): 86.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:05 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 3 at ALA 46) Bryce Young run for 1 yd to the Alab 47 - CIN 0, ALA 0 -0.81 87.8% -3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 53

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 2.64 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.8%

Win Probability (After): 84.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:40 ESPN team id 333 (3rd & 2 at ALA 47) Jameson Williams run for 18 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST down - CIN 0, ALA 0 2.00 82.1% 6.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 35

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.81 - 1.81 = 2.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.81)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.1%

Win Probability (After): 88.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:26 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at CIN 35) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the Cincy 26 - CIN 0, ALA 0 0.78 84.7% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 26

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.58 - 3.81 = 0.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.81)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.7%

Win Probability (After): 85.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:04 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 1 at CIN 26) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST down - CIN 0, ALA 0 0.18 85.3% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 19

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.78 - 4.60 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.60)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.3%

Win Probability (After): 87.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:31 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at CIN 19) CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Marcus Brown) to the Cincy 14 - CIN 0, ALA 0 0.57 87.9% -0.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 14

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.37 - 4.80 = 0.57

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.80)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.9%

Win Probability (After): 87.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:11 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 5 at CIN 14) Trey Sanders run for 4 yds to the Cincy 10 - CIN 0, ALA 0 0.16 86.0% 2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 10

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.49 - 5.33 = 0.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.33)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.0%

Win Probability (After): 88.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:31 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 1 at CIN 10) Trey Sanders run for 2 yds to the Cincy 8 for a 1ST down - CIN 0, ALA 0 -0.05 86.9% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 8

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.43 - 5.47 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.47)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.9%

Win Probability (After): 86.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:51 ESPN team id 333 (1st & Goal at CIN 8) Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 8 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) - CIN 0, ALA 7 1.52 87.0% 4.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.48 = 1.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.48)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.0%

Win Probability (After): 91.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:51 ESPN team id 2132 (Kickoff at CIN 35) Will Reichard kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - CIN 0, ALA 7 0.00 8.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 0.01 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.99)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.9%

Win Probability (After): 8.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:51 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 25) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 6 yds to the Cincy 31 - CIN 0, ALA 7 0.45 8.9% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - 0.01 = 0.45

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.99)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.9%

Win Probability (After): 9.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:24 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 4 at CIN 31) Jerome Ford run for 3 yds to the Cincy 34 - CIN 0, ALA 7 0.08 9.3% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 66

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 0.48 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.52)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.3%

Win Probability (After): 8.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:01 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 1 at CIN 34) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 4 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST down - CIN 0, ALA 7 0.60 9.5% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 62

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.18 - 0.59 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.41)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.5%

Win Probability (After): 9.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:21 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 38) Jerome Ford run for 9 yds to the Cincy 47 - CIN 0, ALA 7 1.08 11.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 53

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 1.10 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.90)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.8%

Win Probability (After): 11.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:37 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 1 at CIN 47) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jadon Thompson - CIN 0, ALA 7 -0.76 14.0% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.34 - 2.11 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.89)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.0%

Win Probability (After): 12.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:33 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 1 at CIN 47) Ryan Montgomery run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - CIN 0, ALA 7 0.61 13.6% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 50

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.91 - 1.30 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.70)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.6%

Win Probability (After): 13.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:56 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at 50) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 19 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST down - CIN 0, ALA 7 1.51 14.3% 2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 31

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - 1.91 = 1.51

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.09)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.3%

Win Probability (After): 16.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:23 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at ALA 31) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler Scott, broken up by Brian Branch - CIN 0, ALA 7 -0.69 17.1% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 31

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.77 - 3.46 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.54)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.1%

Win Probability (After): 15.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:20 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 10 at ALA 31) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 22 yds to the Alab 9 for a 1ST down - CIN 0, ALA 7 2.33 16.5% 2.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 9

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.15 - 2.81 = 2.33

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.19)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-1.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.5%

Win Probability (After): 19.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:48 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & Goal at ALA 9) Timeout ALABAMA, clock 05:48 - CIN 0, ALA 7 0.00 18.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.15 - 5.15 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.85)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-1.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.8%

Win Probability (After): 18.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:48 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & Goal at ALA 9) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce, broken up by Henry To'oTo'o - CIN 0, ALA 7 -0.67 18.4% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.47 - 5.15 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.85)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.4%

Win Probability (After): 17.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:44 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & Goal at ALA 9) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce - CIN 0, ALA 7 -0.84 17.6% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.63 - 4.47 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.53)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.6%

Win Probability (After): 16.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:40 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & Goal at ALA 9) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Leonard Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 15 - CIN 0, ALA 7 -1.33 16.2% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 15

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 3.62 = -1.33

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.38)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 0, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.2%

Win Probability (After): 14.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 4:52 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & Goal at ALA 15) Cole Smith 33 yd FG GOOD - CIN 3, ALA 7 0.41 15.8% 3.6%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.59 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.41)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.8%

Win Probability (After): 19.4%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:52 ESPN team id 333 (Kickoff at ALA 35) Alex Bales kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - CIN 3, ALA 7 0.00 86.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.51 - 1.51 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.51)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.5%

Win Probability (After): 86.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:52 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at ALA 25) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Alab 26 - CIN 3, ALA 7 -0.55 86.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.96 - 1.51 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.51)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.5%

Win Probability (After): 86.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:17 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 9 at ALA 26) Bryce Young pass incomplete - CIN 3, ALA 7 -1.00 83.9% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 0.99 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.99)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.9%

Win Probability (After): 84.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:12 ESPN team id 333 (3rd & 9 at ALA 26) CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Myjai Sanders) to the Alab 31 - CIN 3, ALA 7 0.97 81.9% 1.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 69

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - 0.02 = 0.97

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.02)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.9%

Win Probability (After): 83.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:12 ESPN team id 333 (3rd & 4 at ALA 31) Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 16 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST down - CIN 3, ALA 7 1.94 82.9% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 53

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 0.99 = 1.94

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.99)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.9%

Win Probability (After): 85.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:55 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at ALA 47) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 16 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST down - CIN 3, ALA 7 0.87 85.3% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 37

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.78 - 2.91 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.91)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.3%

Win Probability (After): 85.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:26 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at CIN 37) Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey Brooks - CIN 3, ALA 7 -0.62 86.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 37

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.15 - 3.77 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.77)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.0%

Win Probability (After): 85.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:19 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 10 at CIN 37) Bryce Young run for 1 yd to the Cincy 36 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Bryce Young) to the Cincy 41 - CIN 3, ALA 7 -1.63 85.1% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 41

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.52 - 3.15 = -1.63

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.15)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.1%

Win Probability (After): 84.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:56 ESPN team id 333 (3rd & 14 at CIN 41) Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 12 yds to the Cincy 29 - CIN 3, ALA 7 0.80 84.0% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 29

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.32 - 1.52 = 0.80

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.52)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.0%

Win Probability (After): 84.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:32 ESPN team id 333 (4th & 2 at CIN 29) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST down - CIN 3, ALA 7 2.15 85.1% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 25

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.47 - 2.32 = 2.15

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.32)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.1%

Win Probability (After): 86.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:06 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at CIN 25) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 15 yds to the Cincy 10 for a 1ST down - CIN 3, ALA 7 0.81 87.4% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 10

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.27 - 4.47 = 0.81

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.47)

Score Difference (End): 4 (9.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.4%

Win Probability (After): 88.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:37 ESPN team id 333 (1st & Goal at CIN 10) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Cincy 9 - CIN 3, ALA 7 -0.47 88.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 9

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.80 - 5.27 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 4 (9.27)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.3%

Win Probability (After): 88.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:59 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & Goal at CIN 9) Bryce Young sacked by Darrian Beavers for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 15 - CIN 3, ALA 7 -1.42 87.4% -1.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 15

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.38 - 4.80 = -1.42

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.80)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.4%

Win Probability (After): 86.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:01 ESPN team id 333 (3rd & Goal at CIN 15) Bryce Young run for 12 yds to the Cincy 3 - CIN 3, ALA 7 -0.40 83.6% 1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 3

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.08 - 3.47 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.47)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.6%

Win Probability (After): 85.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 333 (4th & Goal at CIN 3) ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Kendall Randolph) to the Cincy 8 - CIN 3, ALA 7 -0.24 85.6% -0.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 8

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.80 - 3.03 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.03)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.6%

Win Probability (After): 84.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:56 ESPN team id 333 (4th & Goal at CIN 8) Will Reichard 26 yd FG GOOD - CIN 3, ALA 10 0.18 84.9% 5.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8

Started Drive at: ALA 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.82 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.82)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.9%

Win Probability (After): 90.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:56 ESPN team id 2132 (Kickoff at CIN 35) Will Reichard kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - CIN 3, ALA 10 0.00 12.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - 0.19 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.81)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.0%

Win Probability (After): 12.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:56 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 25) Jerome Ford run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30 - CIN 3, ALA 10 0.13 12.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.32 - 0.19 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.81)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.0%

Win Probability (After): 12.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:20 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 5 at CIN 30) Desmond Ridder sacked by DJ Dale for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 21 - CIN 3, ALA 10 -2.20 13.9% -3.9%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 79

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.90 - 0.30 = -2.20

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.70)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.9%

Win Probability (After): 10.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:37 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 14 at CIN 21) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 5 yds to the Cincy 26 - CIN 3, ALA 10 -0.55 11.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 74

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.53 - -1.98 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.98)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.5%

Win Probability (After): 11.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:45 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 9 at CIN 26) Mason Fletcher punt for 43 yds , JoJo Earle returns for 2 yds to the Alab 33 - CIN 3, ALA 10 -0.21 11.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 67

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.60 - -2.39 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.39)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.60)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.4%

Win Probability (After): 10.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 12:45 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at ALA 33) Sanders, Trey rush for 8 yards to the ALABAMA41, PENALTY ALABAMA illegal formation 5 yards to the ALABAMA28, NO PLAY. - CIN 3, ALA 10 -0.48 88.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 72

Started Drive at: ALA 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.01 - 2.49 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.49)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.5%

Win Probability (After): 88.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:17 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 15 at ALA 28) Bryce Young pass incomplete to Trey Sanders - CIN 3, ALA 10 -0.82 88.5% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 72

Started Drive at: ALA 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.29 - 2.12 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.12)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.5%

Win Probability (After): 87.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:12 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 15 at ALA 28) Bryce Young pass complete to Trey Sanders for 1 yd to the Alab 29 - CIN 3, ALA 10 -0.83 87.8% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 71

Started Drive at: ALA 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.54 - 1.37 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.37)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.8%

Win Probability (After): 86.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:33 ESPN team id 333 (3rd & 14 at ALA 29) Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jameson Williams ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chris Owens) declined - CIN 3, ALA 10 -1.14 86.0% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: ALA 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.66 - 0.48 = -1.14

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.48)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.0%

Win Probability (After): 85.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:17 ESPN team id 333 (4th & 14 at ALA 29) James Burnip punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 30 - CIN 3, ALA 10 -0.24 84.6% 2.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 70

Started Drive at: ALA 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.81 - -0.57 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.43)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.19)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.6%

Win Probability (After): 87.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:17 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 30) Jerome Ford run for 1 yd to the Cincy 31 - CIN 3, ALA 10 -0.54 13.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 69

Started Drive at: CIN 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.42 - 0.96 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.04)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.5%

Win Probability (After): 13.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:34 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 9 at CIN 31) Jerome Ford run for 5 yds to the Cincy 36 - CIN 3, ALA 10 0.10 13.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 64

Started Drive at: CIN 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 0.54 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.46)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.4%

Win Probability (After): 13.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:49 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 4 at CIN 36) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre Tucker, broken up by Phidarian Mathis - CIN 3, ALA 10 -1.49 15.8% -3.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: CIN 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.76 - 0.73 = -1.49

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.27)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.8%

Win Probability (After): 12.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:35 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 4 at CIN 36) Mason Fletcher punt for 54 yds , Slade Bolden returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 9 - CIN 3, ALA 10 -0.18 13.6% -0.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 91

Started Drive at: CIN 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.03 - -0.84 = -0.18

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.84)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.03)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.6%

Win Probability (After): 12.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:35 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at ALA 9) Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 8 - CIN 3, ALA 10 -1.03 87.9% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 92

Started Drive at: ALA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 1.00 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.00)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.9%

Win Probability (After): 86.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:13 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 11 at ALA 8) Bryce Young pass complete to Jahleel Billingsley for 12 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST down - CIN 3, ALA 10 2.01 86.3% 2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 80

Started Drive at: ALA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.77 - -0.24 = 2.01

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.76)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.3%

Win Probability (After): 88.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:55 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at ALA 20) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Alab 26 - CIN 3, ALA 10 0.21 88.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 74

Started Drive at: ALA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.66 - 1.45 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.45)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.0%

Win Probability (After): 87.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:30 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 4 at ALA 26) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 13 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST down - CIN 3, ALA 10 0.98 87.0% 2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 61

Started Drive at: ALA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 1.49 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.49)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.0%

Win Probability (After): 89.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:03 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at ALA 39) Trey Sanders run for 6 yds to the Alab 45 - CIN 3, ALA 10 0.23 88.5% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 55

Started Drive at: ALA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 2.34 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.5%

Win Probability (After): 89.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:28 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 4 at ALA 45) Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 6 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST down - CIN 3, ALA 10 0.46 89.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 49

Started Drive at: ALA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.08 - 2.62 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.62)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.3%

Win Probability (After): 89.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:55 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at CIN 49) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the Cincy 40 - CIN 3, ALA 10 0.83 89.7% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 40

Started Drive at: ALA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.04 - 3.21 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.21)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.7%

Win Probability (After): 90.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:21 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 1 at CIN 40) Timeout CINCINNATI, clock 06:21 - CIN 3, ALA 10 0.00 90.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40

Started Drive at: ALA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.04 - 4.04 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.04)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.5%

Win Probability (After): 90.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:21 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 1 at CIN 40) Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 10 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST down - CIN 3, ALA 10 0.15 91.0% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 30

Started Drive at: ALA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.19 - 4.04 = 0.15

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.04)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.0%

Win Probability (After): 91.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:49 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at CIN 30) Bryce Young pass incomplete - CIN 3, ALA 10 -0.25 91.4% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: ALA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.74 - 3.99 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.99)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.4%

Win Probability (After): 90.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:42 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 10 at CIN 30) Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 4 yds to the Cincy 26 - CIN 3, ALA 10 -0.28 91.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 26

Started Drive at: ALA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 3.56 = -0.28

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.56)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.0%

Win Probability (After): 90.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:57 ESPN team id 333 (3rd & 6 at CIN 26) Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jahleel Billingsley - CIN 3, ALA 10 -1.36 91.6% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: ALA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.86 - 3.22 = -1.36

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.22)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.6%

Win Probability (After): 89.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:47 ESPN team id 333 (4th & 6 at CIN 26) Will Reichard 44 yd FG MISSED - CIN 3, ALA 10 -2.62 90.4% -5.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 74

Started Drive at: ALA 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.92 - 1.71 = -2.62

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.71)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.08)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.4%

Win Probability (After): 84.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 4:47 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 26) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler Scott, broken up by Khyree Jackson - CIN 3, ALA 10 -0.66 15.8% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: CIN 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 0.86 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.14)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.8%

Win Probability (After): 14.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:37 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 10 at CIN 26) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 5 yds to the Cincy 31 - CIN 3, ALA 10 -0.07 14.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 69

Started Drive at: CIN 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 0.20 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.80)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.2%

Win Probability (After): 14.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:57 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 5 at CIN 31) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael Young Jr. - CIN 3, ALA 10 -1.24 13.8% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: CIN 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.17 - 0.07 = -1.24

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.93)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.8%

Win Probability (After): 11.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:39 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 5 at CIN 31) Mason Fletcher punt for 48 yds , JoJo Earle returns for a loss of 9 yards to the Alab 12 JoJo Earle fumbled, recovered by Alab Jameson Williams ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jaylen Moody) to the Alab 6 - CIN 3, ALA 10 1.13 11.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 94

Started Drive at: CIN 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - -1.08 = 1.13

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.17)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.04)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.4%

Win Probability (After): 11.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 3:39 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at ALA 6) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Alab 12 - CIN 3, ALA 10 0.17 89.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 88

Started Drive at: ALA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.23 - 0.06 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.06)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.0%

Win Probability (After): 88.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:10 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 4 at ALA 12) Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey Brooks - CIN 3, ALA 10 -0.71 88.8% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 88

Started Drive at: ALA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.43 - 0.29 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.29)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.8%

Win Probability (After): 88.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:04 ESPN team id 333 (3rd & 4 at ALA 12) Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 4 yds to the Alab 16 for a 1ST down - CIN 3, ALA 10 0.92 88.3% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 84

Started Drive at: ALA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - -0.27 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.73)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.3%

Win Probability (After): 89.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:54 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at ALA 16) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 19 - CIN 3, ALA 10 -0.33 86.3% 2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 81

Started Drive at: ALA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.33 - 0.66 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.66)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.3%

Win Probability (After): 88.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:22 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 7 at ALA 19) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 23 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST down - CIN 3, ALA 10 1.30 87.2% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 58

Started Drive at: ALA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - 0.51 = 1.30

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.51)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.2%

Win Probability (After): 88.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:56 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at ALA 42) Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 14 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST down - CIN 3, ALA 10 0.49 89.6% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 44

Started Drive at: ALA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 1.81 = 0.49

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.81)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:49 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at CIN 44) Bryce Young pass incomplete to JoJo Earle - CIN 3, ALA 10 -0.16 90.4% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: ALA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 1.98 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.98)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.4%

Win Probability (After): 89.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:36 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 10 at CIN 44) Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 44 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) - CIN 3, ALA 17 5.38 89.9% 4.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 99

Started Drive at: ALA 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.62 = 5.38

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.62)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 94 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.9%

Win Probability (After): 94.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:36 ESPN team id 2132 (Kickoff at CIN 35) Will Reichard kickoff for 65 yds , Tyler Scott return for 40 yds to the Cincy 40 - CIN 3, ALA 17 0.20 6.0% 0.4%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 60

Started Drive at: CIN 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - 0.63 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.37)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.0%

Win Probability (After): 6.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:27 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 40) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 4 yds to the Cincy 44 - CIN 3, ALA 17 -0.04 6.4% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 56

Started Drive at: CIN 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.18 - 1.22 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.78)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 6.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:06 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 6 at CIN 44) Desmond Ridder run for 9 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST down - CIN 3, ALA 17 0.67 6.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 47

Started Drive at: CIN 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.72 - 1.05 = 0.67

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.95)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 6.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:52 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at ALA 47) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce - CIN 3, ALA 17 -0.16 6.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: CIN 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.37 - 1.53 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.47)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.6%

Win Probability (After): 6.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:47 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 10 at ALA 47) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard Taylor - CIN 3, ALA 17 -0.19 6.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: CIN 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.09 - 1.27 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.73)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.5%

Win Probability (After): 6.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:42 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 10 at ALA 47) Desmond Ridder sacked by Dallas Turner for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 49 - CIN 3, ALA 17 -0.91 7.1% -2.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 51

Started Drive at: CIN 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.08 - 0.99 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.01)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.1%

Win Probability (After): 5.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:02 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 14 at CIN 49) Timeout CINCINNATI, clock 00:02 - CIN 3, ALA 17 0.00 5.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 51

Started Drive at: CIN 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.08 - 0.08 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.92)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.4%

Win Probability (After): 5.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 14 at CIN 49) Desmond Ridder sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 44 - CIN 3, ALA 17 -0.12 5.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 44

Started Drive at: CIN 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.52 - 0.12 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.88)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.52)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.0%

Win Probability (After): 4.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2132 (Kickoff at CIN 35) Will Reichard kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - CIN 3, ALA 17 0.00 4.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.62 - -0.62 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.62)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.7%

Win Probability (After): 4.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 25) Desmond Ridder run for 9 yds to the Cincy 34 - CIN 3, ALA 17 1.31 4.7% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.69 - -0.62 = 1.31

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.62)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.7%

Win Probability (After): 4.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:26 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 1 at CIN 34) Jerome Ford run for 2 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST down - CIN 3, ALA 17 -0.28 5.4% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 64

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - 0.73 = -0.28

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.27)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.4%

Win Probability (After): 5.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:02 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 36) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 9 yds to the Cincy 45 - CIN 3, ALA 17 1.08 5.5% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 55

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.57 - 0.50 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.50)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.5%

Win Probability (After): 6.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:24 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 1 at CIN 45) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tyler Scott for 7 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST down - CIN 3, ALA 17 0.29 5.6% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 48

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.88 - 1.59 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.41)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 6.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:53 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at ALA 48) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 12 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST down - CIN 3, ALA 17 1.00 5.6% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 36

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.79 - 1.79 = 1.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.21)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 6.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:23 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at ALA 36) Jerome Ford run for 9 yds to the Alab 27 - CIN 3, ALA 17 1.04 6.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 27

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.81 - 2.77 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.23)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.7%

Win Probability (After): 6.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:47 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 1 at ALA 27) Desmond Ridder run for 3 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST down - CIN 3, ALA 17 -0.16 7.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 24

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.65 - 3.81 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.19)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.0%

Win Probability (After): 7.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:18 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at ALA 24) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for 5 yds to the Alab 19 - CIN 3, ALA 17 0.33 7.0% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 19

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.97 - 3.64 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.36)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.0%

Win Probability (After): 7.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:48 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 5 at ALA 19) Jerome Ford run for no gain to the Alab 19 - CIN 3, ALA 17 -0.94 7.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.08 - 4.03 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.97)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.2%

Win Probability (After): 6.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:08 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 5 at ALA 19) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Michael Young Jr. - CIN 3, ALA 17 -1.53 5.9% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 3.09 = -1.53

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.91)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 3, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.9%

Win Probability (After): 5.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:57 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 5 at ALA 19) Cole Smith 37 yd FG GOOD - CIN 6, ALA 17 1.42 5.4% 2.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.58 = 1.42

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.42)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.4%

Win Probability (After): 8.3%

Away Score: 3 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:57 ESPN team id 333 (Kickoff at ALA 35) Alex Bales kickoff for 65 yds , Jameson Williams return for 15 yds to the Alab 15 - CIN 6, ALA 17 -1.46 94.0% -1.1%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 85

Started Drive at: ALA 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.73 - 2.19 = -1.46

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.19)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.0%

Win Probability (After): 92.9%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:52 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at ALA 15) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 17 - CIN 6, ALA 17 -0.64 94.0% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 83

Started Drive at: ALA 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 1.90 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.90)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.0%

Win Probability (After): 92.9%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:31 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 8 at ALA 17) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 17 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST down - CIN 6, ALA 17 1.67 93.4% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 66

Started Drive at: ALA 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.86 - 1.19 = 1.67

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.19)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.4%

Win Probability (After): 94.9%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:12 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at ALA 34) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 3 yds to the Alab 37 - CIN 6, ALA 17 -0.44 95.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 63

Started Drive at: ALA 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 2.79 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.79)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.4%

Win Probability (After): 94.5%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:34 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 7 at ALA 37) Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the Alab 38 - CIN 6, ALA 17 -0.65 95.2% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 62

Started Drive at: ALA 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.67 - 2.32 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.32)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.2%

Win Probability (After): 94.1%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:55 ESPN team id 333 (3rd & 6 at ALA 38) Bryce Young sacked by Wilson Huber for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 36 - CIN 6, ALA 17 -1.64 94.7% -2.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 64

Started Drive at: ALA 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.08 - 1.56 = -1.64

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.56)

Score Difference (End): 11 (10.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.7%

Win Probability (After): 92.6%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:03 ESPN team id 333 (4th & 8 at ALA 36) James Burnip punt for 47 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 12 yds to the Cincy 29 - CIN 6, ALA 17 -0.34 92.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 71

Started Drive at: ALA 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.41 - -0.08 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 11 (10.92)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.59)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.7%

Win Probability (After): 92.4%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:03 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 29) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tyler Scott - CIN 6, ALA 17 -0.80 7.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: CIN 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - 0.45 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.55)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.3%

Win Probability (After): 7.0%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:59 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 10 at CIN 29) Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 35 - CIN 6, ALA 17 0.48 6.4% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 65

Started Drive at: CIN 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.11 - -0.37 = 0.48

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.37)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 7.0%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:18 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 4 at CIN 35) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre Tucker, broken up by Brian Branch - CIN 6, ALA 17 -1.70 8.1% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: CIN 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.59 - 0.12 = -1.70

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.88)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-12.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.1%

Win Probability (After): 5.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:11 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 4 at CIN 35) CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 30 - CIN 6, ALA 17 -0.88 6.6% -0.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 70

Started Drive at: CIN 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.38 - -1.50 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-12.50)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-13.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.6%

Win Probability (After): 5.8%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:03 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 9 at CIN 30) Mason Fletcher punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Slade Bolden at the Alab 26 - CIN 6, ALA 17 0.12 5.9% -1.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 74

Started Drive at: CIN 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.30 - -2.41 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-13.41)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.30)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.9%

Win Probability (After): 4.1%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:03 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at ALA 26) Bryce Young run for 6 yds to the Alab 32 - CIN 6, ALA 17 0.03 96.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 68

Started Drive at: ALA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.34 - 2.31 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.31)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.1%

Win Probability (After): 96.1%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:36 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 4 at ALA 32) Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 30 - CIN 6, ALA 17 -1.21 96.1% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 70

Started Drive at: ALA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 2.33 = -1.21

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.33)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.1%

Win Probability (After): 95.5%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:54 ESPN team id 333 (3rd & 6 at ALA 30) Bryce Young pass intercepted Bryan Cook return for no gain to the Cincy 49 - CIN 6, ALA 17 -2.98 95.5% -4.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 51

Started Drive at: ALA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.85 - 1.14 = -2.98

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.14)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.15)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.5%

Win Probability (After): 90.6%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:54 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 49) Ford, Jerome rush for 1 yard to the 50 yardline, PENALTY CINCINNATI illegal shift 5 yards to the CINCINNATI44, NO PLAY. - CIN 6, ALA 17 -0.82 9.3% -0.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 56

Started Drive at: CIN 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 1.84 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.16)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.3%

Win Probability (After): 8.8%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:36 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 15 at CIN 44) Jerome Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 43 - CIN 6, ALA 17 -0.62 8.7% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 57

Started Drive at: CIN 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.40 - 1.02 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.98)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.7%

Win Probability (After): 7.6%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:53 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 16 at CIN 43) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard Taylor, broken up by Phidarian Mathis - CIN 6, ALA 17 -0.98 7.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: CIN 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.58 - 0.40 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.60)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.1%

Win Probability (After): 6.9%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:48 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 16 at CIN 43) Timeout CINCINNATI, clock 03:48 - CIN 6, ALA 17 0.00 6.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: CIN 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.58 - -0.58 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.58)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.5%

Win Probability (After): 6.5%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:48 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 16 at CIN 43) Desmond Ridder sacked by Will Anderson Jr. and Christian Harris for a loss of 10 yards to the Cincy 33 - CIN 6, ALA 17 -1.76 5.4% -1.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 67

Started Drive at: CIN 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.33 - -0.57 = -1.76

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.57)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-13.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.4%

Win Probability (After): 4.1%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:54 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 26 at CIN 33) Mason Fletcher punt for 37 yds , Slade Bolden returns for no gain to the Alab 30 - CIN 6, ALA 17 -0.24 4.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 70

Started Drive at: CIN 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.53 - -2.29 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-13.29)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.53)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.1%

Win Probability (After): 3.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 2:54 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at ALA 30) Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 27 - CIN 6, ALA 17 -1.14 96.3% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 73

Started Drive at: ALA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.41 - 2.56 = -1.14

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.56)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.3%

Win Probability (After): 95.9%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:21 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 13 at ALA 27) Young, Bryce pass complete to Bolden, Slade for 3 yards to the ALABAMA30, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Owens, Chris) 10 yards to the ALABAMA17, NO PLAY. - CIN 6, ALA 17 -0.67 96.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 83

Started Drive at: ALA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.74 - 1.41 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.41)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.0%

Win Probability (After): 95.6%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:57 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 23 at ALA 17) Bryce Young pass complete to Slade Bolden for 7 yds to the Alab 24 - CIN 6, ALA 17 -0.64 95.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 76

Started Drive at: ALA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.09 - 0.73 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.73)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.5%

Win Probability (After): 95.5%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:21 ESPN team id 333 (3rd & 16 at ALA 24) Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 20 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST down - CIN 6, ALA 17 3.06 95.2% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 56

Started Drive at: ALA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 0.13 = 3.06

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.13)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.8%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:06 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at ALA 44) Trey Sanders run for 1 yd to the Alab 45 - CIN 6, ALA 17 -0.53 96.9% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 55

Started Drive at: ALA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.69 - 3.22 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.22)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.9%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:21 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 9 at ALA 45) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 11 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST down - CIN 6, ALA 17 1.11 96.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 44

Started Drive at: ALA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.81 - 2.69 = 1.11

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.69)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.0%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at CIN 44) Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey Brooks - CIN 6, ALA 17 -0.61 96.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: ALA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.12 - 3.73 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.73)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.8%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:53 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 10 at CIN 44) Bryce Young pass complete to Jameson Williams for 17 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Deshawn Pace) to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST down - CIN 6, ALA 17 2.18 96.7% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 13

Started Drive at: ALA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.30 - 3.08 = 2.18

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.12)

Score Difference (End): 11 (16.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 97.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:37 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at CIN 13) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 9 yds to the Cincy 4 - CIN 6, ALA 17 0.84 97.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 4

Started Drive at: ALA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.09 - 5.25 = 0.84

Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.25)

Score Difference (End): 11 (17.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.9%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:15 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 1 at CIN 4) ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Chris Owens) to the Cincy 9 - CIN 6, ALA 17 -0.98 98.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 9

Started Drive at: ALA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.06 - 6.04 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 11 (17.04)

Score Difference (End): 11 (16.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.1%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:52 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 6 at CIN 9) Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 9 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) - CIN 6, ALA 24 1.96 97.9% 1.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: ALA 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.04 = 1.96

Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.04)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 85 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:52 ESPN team id 2132 (Kickoff at CIN 35) Will Reichard kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - CIN 6, ALA 24 0.00 0.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.45 - -0.45 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.45)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:52 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 25) Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 31 - CIN 6, ALA 24 0.33 0.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.12 - -0.45 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.45)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:19 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 4 at CIN 31) Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST down - CIN 6, ALA 24 0.65 0.6% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 63

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - -0.12 = 0.65

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.12)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:52 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 37) Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Cincy 43 - CIN 6, ALA 24 0.36 0.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 57

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.88 - 0.52 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.48)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:18 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 4 at CIN 43) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Young Jr. for 28 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST down - CIN 6, ALA 24 2.43 0.6% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 29

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 0.91 = 2.43

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.09)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-14.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.9%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:05 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at ALA 29) Jerome Ford run for 6 yds to the Alab 23 - CIN 6, ALA 24 0.34 0.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 23

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.66 - 3.32 = 0.34

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.68)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-14.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:20 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 4 at ALA 23) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Tre Tucker - CIN 6, ALA 24 -0.72 0.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.85 - 3.57 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.43)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-15.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.9%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:12 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 4 at ALA 23) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 1 yd to the Alab 22 - CIN 6, ALA 24 -1.47 0.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 22

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.37 - 2.85 = -1.47

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-15.15)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-16.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:27 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 3 at ALA 22) Timeout CINCINNATI, clock 10:27 - CIN 6, ALA 24 0.00 0.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.37 - 1.37 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-16.63)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-16.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:22 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 3 at ALA 22) Desmond Ridder sacked by Brian Branch and Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 26 - CIN 6, ALA 24 -4.07 0.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 74

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.64 - 1.43 = -4.07

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-16.57)

Score Difference (End): 18 (20.64)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:22 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at ALA 26) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 19 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST down - CIN 6, ALA 24 0.73 99.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 55

Started Drive at: ALA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.23 - 2.49 = 0.73

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.49)

Score Difference (End): 18 (21.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 9:53 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at ALA 45) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the Cincy 47 - CIN 6, ALA 24 0.53 99.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 47

Started Drive at: ALA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.65 - 3.12 = 0.53

Score Difference (Before): 18 (21.12)

Score Difference (End): 18 (21.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 9:27 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 2 at CIN 47) Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST down - CIN 6, ALA 24 0.12 99.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 43

Started Drive at: ALA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.73 - 3.61 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): 18 (21.61)

Score Difference (End): 18 (21.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 8:55 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at CIN 43) Trey Sanders run for 8 yds to the Cincy 35 - CIN 6, ALA 24 0.59 99.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 35

Started Drive at: ALA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.25 - 3.65 = 0.59

Score Difference (Before): 18 (21.65)

Score Difference (End): 18 (22.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 8:18 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 2 at CIN 35) Trey Sanders run for 8 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST down - CIN 6, ALA 24 0.69 99.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 27

Started Drive at: ALA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.60 - 3.91 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): 18 (21.91)

Score Difference (End): 18 (22.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 7:44 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at CIN 27) Trey Sanders run for no gain to the Cincy 27 - CIN 6, ALA 24 -0.50 99.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 27

Started Drive at: ALA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.89 - 4.39 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 18 (22.39)

Score Difference (End): 18 (21.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 7:12 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 10 at CIN 27) Trey Sanders run for 2 yds to the Cincy 25 - CIN 6, ALA 24 -0.83 99.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 25

Started Drive at: ALA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.10 - 3.93 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): 18 (21.93)

Score Difference (End): 18 (21.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 6:31 ESPN team id 333 (3rd & 8 at CIN 25) Bryce Young pass incomplete to Javon Baker - CIN 6, ALA 24 -1.25 99.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: ALA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.90 - 3.15 = -1.25

Score Difference (Before): 18 (21.15)

Score Difference (End): 18 (19.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 6:20 ESPN team id 333 (4th & 8 at CIN 25) Will Reichard 43 yd FG GOOD - CIN 6, ALA 27 1.10 99.7% 0.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: ALA 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.90 = 1.10

Score Difference (Before): 18 (19.90)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 27

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 24 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 6:20 ESPN team id 2132 (Kickoff at CIN 35) Will Reichard kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - CIN 6, ALA 27 0.00 0.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.13 - -0.13 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.13)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-21.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 27

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:20 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 25) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 11 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST down - CIN 6, ALA 27 1.00 0.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 64

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.87 - -0.13 = 1.00

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-21.13)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-20.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:43 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at CIN 36) CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Jake Renfro) to the Cincy 31 - CIN 6, ALA 27 -0.80 0.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 69

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.13 - 0.67 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.33)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-21.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:28 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 15 at CIN 31) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josh Whyle for 12 yds to the Cincy 43 - CIN 6, ALA 27 0.89 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 57

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 0.18 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.82)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-19.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:04 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 3 at CIN 43) Jerome Ford run for 14 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST down - CIN 6, ALA 27 1.08 0.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 43

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.51 - 1.43 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-19.57)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-18.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:50 ESPN team id 2132 (1st & 10 at ALA 43) Desmond Ridder sacked by TEAM for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 49 - CIN 6, ALA 27 -1.49 0.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 49

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 2.56 = -1.49

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-18.44)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-19.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 27

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:14 ESPN team id 2132 (2nd & 16 at ALA 49) Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jerome Ford for no gain to the Alab 49 - CIN 6, ALA 27 -0.48 0.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.36 - 0.84 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.16)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-20.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.2%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:44 ESPN team id 2132 (3rd & 16 at ALA 49) Desmond Ridder run for 11 yds to the Alab 38 - CIN 6, ALA 27 -0.36 0.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 38

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 0.42 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.58)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-20.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 27

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:10 ESPN team id 2132 (4th & 5 at ALA 38) Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Leonard Taylor - CIN 6, ALA 27 -2.94 0.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 62

Started Drive at: CIN 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.49 - 0.46 = -2.94

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.54)

Score Difference (End): 21 (23.49)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: CIN 6, ALA 27

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.1%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 3:10 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at ALA 38) Trey Sanders run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - CIN 6, ALA 27 0.28 100.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 50

Started Drive at: ALA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 2.19 = 0.28

Score Difference (Before): 21 (23.19)

Score Difference (End): 21 (23.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 100.0%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:27 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at 50) Trey Sanders run for 18 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST down - CIN 6, ALA 27 1.02 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 32

Started Drive at: ALA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.51 - 2.49 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): 21 (23.49)

Score Difference (End): 21 (24.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:47 ESPN team id 333 (1st & 10 at CIN 32) Trey Sanders run for 6 yds to the Cincy 26 - CIN 6, ALA 27 0.06 99.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 26

Started Drive at: ALA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.46 - 3.39 = 0.06

Score Difference (Before): 21 (24.39)

Score Difference (End): 21 (24.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:13 ESPN team id 333 (2nd & 4 at CIN 26) Trey Sanders run for no gain to the Cincy 26 - CIN 6, ALA 27 -0.33 99.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: ALA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.94 - 3.27 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): 21 (24.27)

Score Difference (End): 21 (23.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 27

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.9%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:28 ESPN team id 333 (3rd & 4 at CIN 26) Trey Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 27 - CIN 6, ALA 27 -1.15 99.9% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 27

Started Drive at: ALA 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.61 - 2.76 = -1.15

Score Difference (Before): 21 (23.76)

Score Difference (End): 21 (22.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: CIN 6, ALA 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 6 (6) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1