Penn State 10 @ Arkansas 24

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 4.32 | Odds: ARK -3.5, O/U 51.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 213 ESPN team id 8
Total Plays 7587
Total EPA -15.844.14
  Offensive EPA -10.863.34
  Special Teams EPA -4.330.76
  Penalty EPA -2.060.04
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 1.410.00
Production ESPN team id 213 ESPN team id 8
Scrimmage Plays 6378
  Yards 338451
  Yards/Play 5.375.78
  EPA -10.863.34
  EPA/Play -0.170.04
Passes 37 (59%)25 (32%)
  Yards 19898
  Yards/Play 5.353.92
  EPA -20.25-16.79
  EPA/Play -0.55-0.67
Rushes 26 (41%)53 (68%)
  Yards 148377
  Yards/Play 5.697.11
  EPA 9.3920.13
  EPA/Play 0.360.38
Rushing ESPN team id 213 ESPN team id 8
Scrimmage Plays 6378
Rushes 26 (41%)53 (68%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 1 (4%)1 (2%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 1 (100%)1 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 3 (12%)7 (13%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 9 (35%)16 (30%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 14 (54%)31 (58%)
OL Line Yards 44.261.8
  Per Carry 1.701.17
Highlight Yards 48173.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 3.435.60
Explosiveness ESPN team id 213 ESPN team id 8
Total Plays 7587
Scrimmage Plays 6378
Explosive Plays 7 (11%)7 (9%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 4 (11%)1 (4%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 3 (12%)6 (11%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -32.70-16.03
  EPA/Play -0.58-0.23
  When Passing -33.01-19.95
    EPA/Play -0.89-0.80
  When Rushing 0.323.92
    EPA/Play 0.010.08
Situational ESPN team id 213 ESPN team id 8
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 22 (35%)37 (47%)
  When Passing 9 (24%)9 (36%)
  When Rushing 13 (50%)28 (53%)
  On Standard Downs 17 (43%)29 (53%)
  On Passing Downs 5 (22%)8 (35%)
  On Early Downs 15 (33%)29 (48%)
  On Late Downs 7 (41%)8 (47%)
  During "Middle 8" 2 (20%)9 (64%)
Early Downs 4661
  First Downs Created 9 (20%)17 (28%)
  EPA -15.96-3.90
  EPA/Play -0.35-0.06
  Passes 25 (54%)17 (28%)
  Rushes 21 (46%)44 (72%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 6 (24%)6 (35%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 9 (43%)23 (52%)
"Middle 8" Plays 1014
  EPA -3.103.65
  EPA/play -0.310.26
  Passes 5 (50%)5 (36%)
  Rushes 5 (50%)9 (64%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 1 (20%)2 (40%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 1 (20%)7 (78%)
Drives ESPN team id 213 ESPN team id 8
Total 1212
Avg Starting Field Position Own 22Own 31
Plays/Drive 7.797.68
Yards/Drive 38.4841.58
Available Yards % 49%60%
Defensive ESPN team id 213 ESPN team id 8
Scrimmage Plays 7863
Stop Rate 33%49%
Havoc Plays Created 14 (18%)8 (13%)
  Passing 9 (36%)6 (16%)
  Rushing 5 (9%)2 (8%)
TFLs Generated 126
  Passing 74
  Rushing 52
Sacks Generated 5 (20%)2 (5%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 22
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 213 ESPN team id 8
Turnovers 22
  Fumbles 12
  Fumbles Lost 00
  Fumbles Recovered 12
  Interceptions 22
Turnover Margin 00
Expected Turnovers 1.91.9
Expected Turnover Margin 0.00.0
Turnover Luck (pts) 0.00.0
Special Teams ESPN team id 213 ESPN team id 8
Total Plays 12 9
Total EPA -4.33 0.76
  Field Goal EPA -2.67 0.62
  Punting EPA -1.66 0.14
  Kickoff Return EPA 0 0

Penn State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Jordan Stout 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 13.9 xQBR 0.00 -1.45 -1.45 0% -6.0%
Christian Veilleux 1/2, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 41.2 xQBR 1.00 -1.22 -3.66 0% -1.0%
Sean Clifford 14/32, 195 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 1 Sck, 44.5 xQBR 5.91 -0.46 -15.14 27% -10.0%
Rush attempts
Sean Clifford 11 carries, 59 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.36 0.64 6.99 45% 2.0%
Christian Veilleux 1 carry, 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.00 1.41 1.41 100% 1.0%
Devyn Ford 1 carry, 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 0.89 0.89 100% 3.0%
Keyvone Lee 4 carries, 35 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.75 0.19 0.78 50% 0.0%
Parker Washington 2 carries, 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.21 0.43 100% 1.0%
Noah Cain 5 carries, 28 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.60 -0.07 -0.34 40% 0.0%
TEAM 2 carries, -3 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) -1.50 -0.38 -0.77 0% -3.0%
Pass targets
Parker Washington 7 catches (8 targets), 98 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.00 0.90 7.20 62% 13.0%
Noah Cain 2 catches (2 targets), 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.52 1.05 50% 5.0%
KeAndre Lambert-Smith 3 catches (7 targets), 74 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 24.67 0.13 0.90 29% 9.0%
Keyvone Lee 1 catch (2 targets), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.00 -0.18 -0.36 50% 0.0%
Tyler Warren 1 catch (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.47 -0.47 0% -2.0%
Theo Johnson 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.60 -1.20 0% -2.0%
Brenton Strange 1 catch (2 targets), -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.00 -0.77 -1.54 0% -4.0%
Cam Sullivan-Brown 0 catches (3 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.05 -3.14 0% -4.0%
Malick Meiga 0 catches (3 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.05 -3.14 0% -4.0%

Arkansas [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Warren Thompson 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 0 Scks, 18.8 xQBR 0.00 -1.93 -1.93 0% -13.0%
KJ Jefferson 14/19, 98 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 5 Scks, 26.3 xQBR 4.08 -0.62 -14.86 38% -25.0%
Rush attempts
KJ Jefferson 15 carries, 134 yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 8.93 0.52 7.74 47% 27.0%
Raheim Sanders 13 carries, 79 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.08 0.43 5.56 69% 23.0%
Malik Hornsby 4 carries, 67 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.75 1.30 5.21 75% 2.0%
Dominique Johnson 11 carries, 77 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.39 4.30 64% 13.0%
AJ Green 4 carries, 26 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.50 0.48 1.91 50% -1.0%
Trelon Smith 2 carries, 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.19 -0.38 0% 0.0%
TEAM 2 carries, -6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -3.00 -1.01 -2.01 0% 0.0%
De'Vion Warren 2 carries, -6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -3.00 -1.10 -2.21 0% -6.0%
Pass targets
De'Vion Warren 3 catches (3 targets), 33 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.00 0.53 1.60 100% 6.0%
Blake Kern 1 catch (1 target), 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 1.57 1.57 100% 6.0%
Trey Knox 2 catches (2 targets), 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.50 0.44 0.89 100% 2.0%
Tyson Morris 3 catches (4 targets), 32 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.67 0.19 0.75 25% 3.0%
Warren Thompson 1 catch (1 target), 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.00 0.18 0.18 100% 1.0%
Dominique Johnson 1 catch (1 target), -3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -3.00 -0.81 -0.81 0% -4.0%
Bryce Stephens 3 catches (3 targets), 5 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 1.67 -0.81 -2.44 33% -3.0%
AJ Green 0 catches (3 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.89 -2.67 0% -5.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 12:39 ESPN team id 213 (1st & Goal at ARK 10) Sean Clifford pass intercepted, touchback. Joe Foucha return for no gain - PSU 10, ARK 24 -7.12 9.2% -5.7%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 80

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.33 - 4.80 = -7.12

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.20)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.33)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.2%

Win Probability (After): 3.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 9:24 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at PSU 11) KJ Jefferson pass intercepted, touchback. Ji'Ayir Brown return for no gain - PSU 0, ARK 0 -5.98 64.8% -7.7%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 80

Started Drive at: ARK 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.84 - 5.14 = -5.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.84)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.8%

Win Probability (After): 57.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:51 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 4 at PSU 26) Sean Clifford pass intercepted Greg Brooks Jr. return for no gain to the PnSt 42 - PSU 0, ARK 0 -4.37 45.5% -6.8%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 42

Started Drive at: PSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.38 - 0.99 = -4.37

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.99)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.38)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.5%

Win Probability (After): 38.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:53 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ARK 42) Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 42 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) - PSU 7, ARK 7 4.12 32.1% 13.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARK 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.88 = 4.12

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.12)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 7, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.1%

Win Probability (After): 45.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:00 ESPN team id 8 (4th & 3 at PSU 41) KJ Jefferson run for 13 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 3.77 52.5% 8.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 28

Started Drive at: ARK 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.31 - 0.54 = 3.77

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.5%

Win Probability (After): 60.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:55 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 4 at ARK 40) Sean Clifford run for 7 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 3.73 5.8% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 33

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.26 - -0.47 = 3.73

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.47)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.8%

Win Probability (After): 7.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 13:25 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 7 at PSU 39) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 42 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 3.27 47.8% 6.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 19

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.76 - 1.49 = 3.27

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.8%

Win Probability (After): 54.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:40 ESPN team id 8 (3rd & 9 at ARK 33) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 21 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 3.16 52.0% 9.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 46

Started Drive at: ARK 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 0.03 = 3.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.03)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.0%

Win Probability (After): 61.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:39 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 23 at ARK 32) Jake Pinegar 50 yd FG MISSED - PSU 0, ARK 0 -3.03 45.9% -3.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 68

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.76 - 1.27 = -3.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.27)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.76)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.9%

Win Probability (After): 42.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:00 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 17 at PSU 25) AJ Green run for 17 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 2.87 99.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 8

Started Drive at: ARK 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.15 - 2.28 = 2.87

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.28)

Score Difference (End): 14 (19.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 10:53 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ARK 42) Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 42 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) - PSU 7, ARK 7 4.12 32.1% 13.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARK 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.88 = 4.12

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.12)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 7, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.1%

Win Probability (After): 45.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:21 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 5 at PSU 38) Warren Thompson pass intercepted Ji'Ayir Brown return for no gain to the PnSt 18 - PSU 10, ARK 7 -1.93 52.7% -13.1%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 82

Started Drive at: ARK 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.26 - 1.67 = -1.93

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.33)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.26)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.7%

Win Probability (After): 39.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 6:29 ESPN team id 8 (4th & 11 at PSU 18) Cam Little 37 Yd Field Goal - PSU 10, ARK 17 0.62 70.3% 11.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: ARK 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.38 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.38)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.3%

Win Probability (After): 82.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 8 (1st & Goal at PSU 3) Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) - PSU 0, ARK 7 0.83 60.4% 10.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARK 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.17 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.17)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.4%

Win Probability (After): 70.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:40 ESPN team id 8 (3rd & 9 at ARK 33) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 21 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 3.16 52.0% 9.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 46

Started Drive at: ARK 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 0.03 = 3.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.03)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.0%

Win Probability (After): 61.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:19 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 11 at ARK 15) Jake Pinegar 33 yd FG GOOD - PSU 10, ARK 7 0.36 51.7% 9.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: PSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.64 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.64)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.7%

Win Probability (After): 61.4%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 3:00 ESPN team id 8 (4th & 3 at PSU 41) KJ Jefferson run for 13 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 3.77 52.5% 8.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 28

Started Drive at: ARK 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.31 - 0.54 = 3.77

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.5%

Win Probability (After): 60.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 9:24 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at PSU 11) KJ Jefferson pass intercepted, touchback. Ji'Ayir Brown return for no gain - PSU 0, ARK 0 -5.98 64.8% -7.7%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 80

Started Drive at: ARK 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.84 - 5.14 = -5.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.84)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.8%

Win Probability (After): 57.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:25 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 8 at PSU 27) Sean Clifford run for 9 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 2.54 42.4% 7.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 64

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - -0.57 = 2.54

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.4%

Win Probability (After): 49.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:42 ESPN team id 8 (1st & Goal at PSU 8) KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) - PSU 10, ARK 14 1.72 61.4% 7.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.28 = 1.72

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.28)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.4%

Win Probability (After): 68.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 8 (1st & Goal at PSU 3) Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) - PSU 0, ARK 7 0.83 60.4% 10.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARK 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.17 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.17)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.4%

Win Probability (After): 70.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:53 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ARK 42) Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 42 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) - PSU 7, ARK 7 4.12 32.1% 13.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARK 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.88 = 4.12

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.12)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 7, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.1%

Win Probability (After): 45.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:19 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 11 at ARK 15) Jake Pinegar 33 yd FG GOOD - PSU 10, ARK 7 0.36 51.7% 9.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: PSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.64 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.64)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.7%

Win Probability (After): 61.4%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 12:42 ESPN team id 8 (1st & Goal at PSU 8) KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) - PSU 10, ARK 14 1.72 61.4% 7.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.28 = 1.72

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.28)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.4%

Win Probability (After): 68.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:29 ESPN team id 8 (4th & 11 at PSU 18) Cam Little 37 Yd Field Goal - PSU 10, ARK 17 0.62 70.3% 11.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: ARK 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.38 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.38)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.3%

Win Probability (After): 82.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 2:08 ESPN team id 8 (1st & Goal at PSU 1) Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) - PSU 10, ARK 24 0.39 91.9% 2.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARK 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.61 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (13.61)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.9%

Win Probability (After): 94.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 213 (Kickoff at PSU 35) Cam Little kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PSU 0, ARK 0 0.00 41.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.6%

Win Probability (After): 41.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:55 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 25) Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27 - PSU 0, ARK 0 -0.61 46.3% -2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.32 - 0.94 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.94)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.3%

Win Probability (After): 43.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:40 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 8 at PSU 27) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - PSU 0, ARK 0 -1.16 45.3% -3.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.65 - 0.51 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.51)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.3%

Win Probability (After): 41.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:25 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 8 at PSU 27) Sean Clifford run for 9 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 2.54 42.4% 7.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 64

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - -0.57 = 2.54

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.4%

Win Probability (After): 49.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:00 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 36) Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the PnSt 39 - PSU 0, ARK 0 -0.51 50.1% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 61

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.49 - 2.00 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.00)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.1%

Win Probability (After): 48.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:25 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 7 at PSU 39) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 42 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 3.27 47.8% 6.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 19

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.76 - 1.49 = 3.27

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.8%

Win Probability (After): 54.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:55 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ARK 19) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Brenton Strange - PSU 0, ARK 0 -0.59 55.3% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.16 - 4.75 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.75)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.3%

Win Probability (After): 53.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:49 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 10 at ARK 19) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - PSU 0, ARK 0 -0.77 53.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.38 - 4.16 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.4%

Win Probability (After): 53.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:45 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 10 at ARK 19) Sean Clifford sacked by Hayden Henry for a loss of 13 yards to the Ark 32 PENN ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Ark 32 - PSU 0, ARK 0 -2.19 52.2% -5.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 32

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 3.37 = -2.19

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.38)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.2%

Win Probability (After): 46.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:39 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 23 at ARK 32) Jake Pinegar 50 yd FG MISSED - PSU 0, ARK 0 -3.03 45.9% -3.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 68

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.76 - 1.27 = -3.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.27)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.76)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.9%

Win Probability (After): 42.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 12:35 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at ARK 32) KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 32 - PSU 0, ARK 0 -0.81 56.2% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 68

Started Drive at: ARK 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 1.76 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.76)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.2%

Win Probability (After): 55.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:15 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 10 at ARK 32) Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd to the Ark 33 - PSU 0, ARK 0 -0.87 56.0% -4.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 67

Started Drive at: ARK 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 0.93 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.93)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.0%

Win Probability (After): 51.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:40 ESPN team id 8 (3rd & 9 at ARK 33) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 21 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 3.16 52.0% 9.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 46

Started Drive at: ARK 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 0.03 = 3.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.03)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.0%

Win Probability (After): 61.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:55 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at PSU 46) Dominique Johnson run for 25 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 1.52 62.1% 3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 21

Started Drive at: ARK 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.69 - 3.17 = 1.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.1%

Win Probability (After): 65.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:34 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at PSU 21) Dominique Johnson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 18 - PSU 0, ARK 0 -0.36 65.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 18

Started Drive at: ARK 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.35 - 4.71 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.71)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.1%

Win Probability (After): 65.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:10 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 7 at PSU 18) Dominique Johnson run for 7 yds to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 0.76 64.2% 1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 11

Started Drive at: ARK 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.15 - 4.39 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.39)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.2%

Win Probability (After): 66.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:24 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at PSU 11) KJ Jefferson pass intercepted, touchback. Ji'Ayir Brown return for no gain - PSU 0, ARK 0 -5.98 64.8% -7.7%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 80

Started Drive at: ARK 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.84 - 5.14 = -5.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.84)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.8%

Win Probability (After): 57.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:20 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 20) Parker Washington run for 6 yds to the PnSt 26 - PSU 0, ARK 0 0.29 44.6% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 74

Started Drive at: PSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 0.79 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.79)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.6%

Win Probability (After): 45.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:51 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 4 at PSU 26) Sean Clifford pass intercepted Greg Brooks Jr. return for no gain to the PnSt 42 - PSU 0, ARK 0 -4.37 45.5% -6.8%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 42

Started Drive at: PSU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.38 - 0.99 = -4.37

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.99)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.38)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.5%

Win Probability (After): 38.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:45 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at PSU 42) Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 41 - PSU 0, ARK 0 -0.48 61.3% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 41

Started Drive at: PSU 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 3.35 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.3%

Win Probability (After): 60.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:15 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 9 at PSU 41) KJ Jefferson sacked by Curtis Jacobs for 0 yards to the PnSt 41 - PSU 0, ARK 0 -0.96 60.3% -2.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41

Started Drive at: PSU 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 2.89 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.89)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.3%

Win Probability (After): 58.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:39 ESPN team id 8 (3rd & 9 at PSU 41) KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Tyson Morris - PSU 0, ARK 0 -1.94 56.4% -5.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41

Started Drive at: PSU 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.00 - 1.94 = -1.94

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.94)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.4%

Win Probability (After): 50.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:32 ESPN team id 8 (4th & 9 at PSU 41) Reid Bauer punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 8 - PSU 0, ARK 0 0.32 52.3% 5.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 92

Started Drive at: PSU 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - -0.10 = 0.32

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.22)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.3%

Win Probability (After): 57.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 7:15 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 8) Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the PnSt 10 - PSU 0, ARK 0 -0.65 42.3% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 90

Started Drive at: PSU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.84 - -0.19 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.3%

Win Probability (After): 41.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:00 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 8 at PSU 10) Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 9 - PSU 0, ARK 0 -0.95 41.0% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 91

Started Drive at: PSU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.71 - -0.77 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.0%

Win Probability (After): 38.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:40 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 9 at PSU 9) Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 7 yds to the PnSt 16 - PSU 0, ARK 0 -0.39 38.7% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 84

Started Drive at: PSU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.03 - -1.65 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.65)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.7%

Win Probability (After): 38.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:42 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 2 at PSU 16) Jordan Stout punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 39 - PSU 0, ARK 0 -0.09 38.9% 2.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 61

Started Drive at: PSU 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.11 - -2.02 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.11)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.9%

Win Probability (After): 41.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 5:18 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at ARK 39) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Bryce Stephens for 6 yds Bryce Stephens fumbled, recovered by Ark - PSU 0, ARK 0 0.29 55.8% 2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 55

Started Drive at: ARK 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 2.10 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.8%

Win Probability (After): 58.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:00 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 4 at ARK 45) Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 0.63 56.6% 1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 48

Started Drive at: ARK 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.02 - 2.39 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.39)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.6%

Win Probability (After): 58.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:40 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at PSU 48) KJ Jefferson sacked by Smith Vilbert for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 48 - PSU 0, ARK 0 -1.49 58.7% -5.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 52

Started Drive at: ARK 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - 3.02 = -1.49

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.7%

Win Probability (After): 53.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:15 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 14 at ARK 48) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Bryce Stephens for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 47 - PSU 0, ARK 0 -1.15 54.9% -3.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 53

Started Drive at: ARK 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 1.53 = -1.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.9%

Win Probability (After): 51.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:55 ESPN team id 8 (3rd & 15 at ARK 47) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 12 yds to the PnSt 41 - PSU 0, ARK 0 0.18 51.1% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 41

Started Drive at: ARK 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 0.37 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.1%

Win Probability (After): 52.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:00 ESPN team id 8 (4th & 3 at PSU 41) KJ Jefferson run for 13 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 3.77 52.5% 8.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 28

Started Drive at: ARK 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.31 - 0.54 = 3.77

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.5%

Win Probability (After): 60.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:45 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at PSU 28) Raheim Sanders run for 14 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 0.76 60.9% 2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 14

Started Drive at: ARK 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.07 - 4.31 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.31)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.9%

Win Probability (After): 63.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:15 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at PSU 14) Jefferson, KJ pass complete to Kern, Blake for 11 yards to the PENNST3, PENALTY ARKANSAS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the PENNST19, NO PLAY. - PSU 0, ARK 0 -0.72 63.1% -1.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 19

Started Drive at: ARK 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 5.06 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.1%

Win Probability (After): 61.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:45 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 15 at PSU 19) Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the PnSt 16 - PSU 0, ARK 0 -0.24 61.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 16

Started Drive at: ARK 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.09 - 4.33 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.33)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.3%

Win Probability (After): 61.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:09 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 12 at PSU 16) KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the PnSt 11 - PSU 0, ARK 0 -0.16 58.3% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 11

Started Drive at: ARK 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.94 - 4.10 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.3%

Win Probability (After): 59.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:40 ESPN team id 8 (3rd & 7 at PSU 11) KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the PnSt 6 - PSU 0, ARK 0 -0.56 56.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 6

Started Drive at: ARK 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.39 - 3.95 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.8%

Win Probability (After): 57.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:20 ESPN team id 8 (4th & 2 at PSU 6) Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 2.85 55.9% 5.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 3

Started Drive at: ARK 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.22 - 3.37 = 2.85

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (6.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.9%

Win Probability (After): 61.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 8 (1st & Goal at PSU 3) Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) - PSU 0, ARK 7 0.83 60.4% 10.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARK 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.17 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.17)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.4%

Win Probability (After): 70.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 213 (Kickoff at PSU 35) Cam Little kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PSU 0, ARK 7 0.00 27.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.16 - 0.16 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.84)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.6%

Win Probability (After): 27.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:53 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 25) Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29 - PSU 0, ARK 7 -0.10 27.7% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.07 - 0.17 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.83)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.7%

Win Probability (After): 27.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:22 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 6 at PSU 29) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith - PSU 0, ARK 7 -0.92 27.3% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.84 - 0.07 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.93)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.3%

Win Probability (After): 26.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:15 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 6 at PSU 29) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 19 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 7 2.79 26.1% 3.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 52

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - -0.83 = 2.79

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.83)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.1%

Win Probability (After): 29.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:50 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 48) Noah Cain run for 16 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 7 1.07 29.9% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 36

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.01 - 1.94 = 1.07

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.06)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.9%

Win Probability (After): 32.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:05 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ARK 36) TEAM run for no gain to the Ark 36 TEAM fumbled, recovered by PnSt Sean Clifford - PSU 0, ARK 7 -0.66 32.6% -2.0%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 3.10 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.90)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.6%

Win Probability (After): 30.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:20 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 10 at ARK 36) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Theo Johnson - PSU 0, ARK 7 -1.04 29.5% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 2.51 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.49)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.5%

Win Probability (After): 28.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:11 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 10 at ARK 36) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith - PSU 0, ARK 7 -1.59 27.7% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.08 - 1.51 = -1.59

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.49)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.7%

Win Probability (After): 25.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:04 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 10 at ARK 36) Jordan Stout punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 10 - PSU 0, ARK 7 -1.22 25.5% -3.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 90

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.24 - -0.02 = -1.22

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.02)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.24)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 0, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.5%

Win Probability (After): 22.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 12:00 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at ARK 10) KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to AJ Green - PSU 0, ARK 7 -0.70 77.1% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90

Started Drive at: ARK 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - 1.28 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.28)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.1%

Win Probability (After): 75.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:54 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 10 at ARK 10) KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to AJ Green - PSU 0, ARK 7 -0.89 75.9% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90

Started Drive at: ARK 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.36 - 0.53 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.53)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.9%

Win Probability (After): 73.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:50 ESPN team id 8 (3rd & 10 at ARK 10) KJ Jefferson sacked by Smith Vilbert for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 6 - PSU 0, ARK 7 -1.57 74.2% -3.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 94

Started Drive at: ARK 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.97 - -0.41 = -1.57

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.59)

Score Difference (End): 7 (5.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 0, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.2%

Win Probability (After): 70.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:00 ESPN team id 8 (4th & 14 at ARK 6) Reid Bauer punt for 54 yds , Johnny Dixon returns for 18 yds to the Ark 42 - PSU 0, ARK 7 -0.83 72.2% -2.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 42

Started Drive at: ARK 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.74 - -1.91 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): 7 (5.09)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.26)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 0, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.2%

Win Probability (After): 69.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 10:53 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ARK 42) Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 42 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) - PSU 7, ARK 7 4.12 32.1% 13.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARK 42

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.88 = 4.12

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.12)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 7, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.1%

Win Probability (After): 45.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:53 ESPN team id 8 (Kickoff at ARK 35) Jordan Stout kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PSU 7, ARK 7 0.00 54.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.19 - 1.19 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 7, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.7%

Win Probability (After): 54.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:50 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at ARK 25) Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the Ark 30 - PSU 7, ARK 7 0.17 55.2% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - 1.19 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 7, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.2%

Win Probability (After): 56.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:25 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 5 at ARK 30) Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 32 - PSU 7, ARK 7 -0.78 56.9% -3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 68

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.67 - 1.45 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.45)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 7, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.9%

Win Probability (After): 53.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:06 ESPN team id 8 (3rd & 3 at ARK 32) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Blake Kern for 8 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST down - PSU 7, ARK 7 1.57 53.1% 6.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 60

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 0.78 = 1.57

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 7, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.1%

Win Probability (After): 59.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:50 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at ARK 40) De'Vion Warren run for 1 yd to the Ark 41 - PSU 7, ARK 7 -0.46 58.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 59

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.85 - 2.31 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.31)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 7, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.1%

Win Probability (After): 57.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:20 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 9 at ARK 41) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 6 yds to the Ark 47 - PSU 7, ARK 7 0.08 56.7% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 53

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.72 - 1.64 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 7, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.7%

Win Probability (After): 56.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:50 ESPN team id 8 (3rd & 3 at ARK 47) KJ Jefferson sacked by Nick Tarburton for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 40 - PSU 7, ARK 7 -2.34 55.2% -6.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 60

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.83 - 1.51 = -2.34

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.51)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 7, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.2%

Win Probability (After): 48.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:59 ESPN team id 8 (4th & 10 at ARK 40) Reid Bauer punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 24 - PSU 7, ARK 7 -0.29 46.4% 7.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 76

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.03 - -0.74 = -0.29

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.74)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.03)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 7, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.4%

Win Probability (After): 53.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 7:55 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 24) Keyvone Lee run for 25 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST down - PSU 7, ARK 7 1.60 47.0% 3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 51

Started Drive at: PSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.69 - 1.09 = 1.60

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.09)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 7, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.0%

Win Probability (After): 50.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:35 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 49) Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 15 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST down - PSU 7, ARK 7 0.92 50.5% 2.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 36

Started Drive at: PSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 2.69 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.69)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 7, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.5%

Win Probability (After): 53.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:14 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ARK 36) ARKANSAS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Ark 31 - PSU 7, ARK 7 0.50 53.5% 0.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 31

Started Drive at: PSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.25 - 3.76 = 0.50

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.76)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 7, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.5%

Win Probability (After): 53.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:00 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 5 at ARK 31) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 17 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST down - PSU 7, ARK 7 0.50 54.0% 3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 14

Started Drive at: PSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.86 - 4.35 = 0.50

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 7, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.0%

Win Probability (After): 57.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:15 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ARK 14) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Malick Meiga - PSU 7, ARK 7 -0.51 58.0% -2.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: PSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.33 - 4.84 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.84)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 7, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.0%

Win Probability (After): 55.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:05 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 10 at ARK 14) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 15 - PSU 7, ARK 7 -0.93 55.6% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 15

Started Drive at: PSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 4.27 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.27)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 7, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.6%

Win Probability (After): 53.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:28 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 11 at ARK 15) Timeout PENN ST, clock 05:28 - PSU 7, ARK 7 0.00 57.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: PSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 3.34 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 7, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.3%

Win Probability (After): 57.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:24 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 11 at ARK 15) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith - PSU 7, ARK 7 -0.72 55.2% -3.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: PSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 3.34 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 7, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.2%

Win Probability (After): 51.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:19 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 11 at ARK 15) Jake Pinegar 33 yd FG GOOD - PSU 10, ARK 7 0.36 51.7% 9.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: PSU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.64 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.64)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.7%

Win Probability (After): 61.4%

Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:19 ESPN team id 8 (Kickoff at ARK 35) Jordan Stout kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PSU 10, ARK 7 0.00 48.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.14)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.3%

Win Probability (After): 48.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:12 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at ARK 25) KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 25 - PSU 10, ARK 7 -0.54 48.2% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.34 - 0.88 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.12)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.2%

Win Probability (After): 46.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:45 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 10 at ARK 25) KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 7 yds to the Ark 32 - PSU 10, ARK 7 0.12 46.8% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 68

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.42 - 0.31 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.69)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.8%

Win Probability (After): 46.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:20 ESPN team id 8 (3rd & 3 at ARK 32) Dominique Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 7 1.20 46.0% 4.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 64

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - 0.44 = 1.20

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.56)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.0%

Win Probability (After): 50.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:00 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at ARK 36) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 2 yds to the Ark 38 - PSU 10, ARK 7 -0.32 50.3% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 62

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.25 - 1.57 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.43)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.3%

Win Probability (After): 49.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 3:30 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 8 at ARK 38) KJ Jefferson sacked by Smith Vilbert for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 29 - PSU 10, ARK 7 -1.60 48.7% -7.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 71

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.46 - 1.14 = -1.60

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.86)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.7%

Win Probability (After): 41.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:57 ESPN team id 8 (3rd & 17 at ARK 29) KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Ark 36 - PSU 10, ARK 7 -0.47 41.5% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 64

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.67 - -0.21 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.21)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.5%

Win Probability (After): 40.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:47 ESPN team id 8 (4th & 10 at ARK 36) Timeout PENN ST, clock 02:47 - PSU 10, ARK 7 0.00 39.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.67 - -0.67 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.67)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.7%

Win Probability (After): 39.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:47 ESPN team id 8 (4th & 10 at ARK 36) ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 31 - PSU 10, ARK 7 -0.39 39.8% -2.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 69

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.11 - -0.72 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.72)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.8%

Win Probability (After): 37.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:36 ESPN team id 8 (4th & 15 at ARK 31) Reid Bauer punt for 58 yds , Parker Washington returns for 5 yds to the PnSt 16 - PSU 10, ARK 7 0.36 37.1% 4.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 84

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.68 - -1.04 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.04)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.68)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.1%

Win Probability (After): 41.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:16 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 16) Devyn Ford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Contact (15 Yards) to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 7 0.89 58.2% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 65

Started Drive at: PSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.57 - 0.81 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.68)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.2%

Win Probability (After): 60.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:10 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 35) Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 32 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 7 1.48 60.8% 5.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 33

Started Drive at: PSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.02 - 1.54 = 1.48

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.54)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.8%

Win Probability (After): 66.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:38 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ARK 33) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Theo Johnson - PSU 10, ARK 7 -0.16 66.3% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33

Started Drive at: PSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 2.79 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.79)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.3%

Win Probability (After): 65.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:30 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 10 at ARK 33) Sean Clifford pass complete to Tyler Warren for no gain to the Ark 33 - PSU 10, ARK 7 -0.47 65.5% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33

Started Drive at: PSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 2.41 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.41)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.5%

Win Probability (After): 63.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:03 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 10 at ARK 33) PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 38 - PSU 10, ARK 7 -1.15 64.0% -4.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 38

Started Drive at: PSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - 2.05 = -1.15

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.05)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.0%

Win Probability (After): 59.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:53 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 15 at ARK 38) Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the Ark 36 - PSU 10, ARK 7 -0.48 61.3% -4.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 36

Started Drive at: PSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - 1.06 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.06)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.3%

Win Probability (After): 56.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:53 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 13 at ARK 36) Timeout ARKANSAS, clock 00:53 - PSU 10, ARK 7 0.00 57.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: PSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - 0.58 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.58)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.1%

Win Probability (After): 57.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:45 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 13 at ARK 36) Jordan Stout pass incomplete - PSU 10, ARK 7 -1.45 59.3% -6.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 64

Started Drive at: PSU 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.85 - 0.60 = -1.45

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.60)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.15)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.3%

Win Probability (After): 53.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:40 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at ARK 36) KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 9 yds to the Ark 45 - PSU 10, ARK 7 0.58 46.2% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 55

Started Drive at: ARK 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.23 - 0.65 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.35)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.2%

Win Probability (After): 48.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:39 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 1 at ARK 45) Timeout ARKANSAS, clock 00:39 - PSU 10, ARK 7 0.00 48.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: ARK 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.23 - 1.23 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.77)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.4%

Win Probability (After): 48.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:35 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 1 at ARK 45) Raheim Sanders run for 12 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 7 0.38 48.0% 2.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 43

Started Drive at: ARK 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.54 - 1.16 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.84)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.0%

Win Probability (After): 50.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:28 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at PSU 43) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 5 yds to the PnSt 38 - PSU 10, ARK 7 0.81 49.8% 2.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 38

Started Drive at: ARK 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.09 - 1.29 = 0.81

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.71)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.8%

Win Probability (After): 52.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:21 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 5 at PSU 38) Warren Thompson pass intercepted Ji'Ayir Brown return for no gain to the PnSt 18 - PSU 10, ARK 7 -1.93 52.7% -13.1%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 82

Started Drive at: ARK 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.26 - 1.67 = -1.93

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.33)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.26)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.7%

Win Probability (After): 39.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:15 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 18) TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 15 - PSU 10, ARK 7 -0.11 60.1% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 85

Started Drive at: PSU 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.09 - 0.11 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.11)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.1%

Win Probability (After): 59.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 8 (Kickoff at ARK 35) Jordan Stout kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PSU 10, ARK 7 0.00 45.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 0.44 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.56)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.5%

Win Probability (After): 45.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:40 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at ARK 25) KJ Jefferson run for 10 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 7 0.84 47.3% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 0.63 = 0.84

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.37)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.3%

Win Probability (After): 48.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:31 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at ARK 35) Dominique Johnson run for 2 yds to the Ark 37 - PSU 10, ARK 7 -0.62 49.9% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 63

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 1.63 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.37)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.9%

Win Probability (After): 48.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:59 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 8 at ARK 37) KJ Jefferson run for 14 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 7 1.68 49.0% 4.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 49

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.75 - 1.07 = 1.68

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.93)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.0%

Win Probability (After): 53.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:35 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at PSU 49) Dominique Johnson run for 5 yds to the PnSt 44 - PSU 10, ARK 7 0.11 52.9% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 44

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.84 - 2.73 = 0.11

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.27)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.9%

Win Probability (After): 54.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:30 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 5 at PSU 44) KJ Jefferson run for 14 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 7 1.13 53.6% 4.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 30

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.89 - 2.76 = 1.13

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.24)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.6%

Win Probability (After): 57.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:00 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at PSU 30) Dominique Johnson run for 22 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 7 1.34 58.1% 5.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 8

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.24 - 3.89 = 1.34

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.89)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.1%

Win Probability (After): 63.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:42 ESPN team id 8 (1st & Goal at PSU 8) KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) - PSU 10, ARK 14 1.72 61.4% 7.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARK 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.28 = 1.72

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.28)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.4%

Win Probability (After): 68.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:42 ESPN team id 213 (Kickoff at PSU 35) Cam Little kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PSU 10, ARK 14 0.00 35.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 0.63 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.37)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.8%

Win Probability (After): 35.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:40 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 25) Sean Clifford run for 3 yds to the PnSt 28 - PSU 10, ARK 14 -0.44 35.8% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 72

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - 0.63 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.37)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.8%

Win Probability (After): 34.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:05 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 7 at PSU 28) Sean Clifford run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 27 - PSU 10, ARK 14 -1.08 34.6% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 73

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.90 - 0.19 = -1.08

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.81)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.6%

Win Probability (After): 32.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:12 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 8 at PSU 27) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Keyvone Lee - PSU 10, ARK 14 -1.28 31.8% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.22 - -0.94 = -1.28

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.94)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-6.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:01 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 8 at PSU 27) Jordan Stout punt for 44 yds , Nathan Parodi returns for 8 yds to the Ark 37 - PSU 10, ARK 14 -0.05 28.7% 1.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 63

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.32 - -2.28 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-6.28)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.32)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 10, ARK 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.7%

Win Probability (After): 29.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:55 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at ARK 37) KJ Jefferson run for 19 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 14 1.13 70.0% 2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 44

Started Drive at: ARK 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.48 - 2.35 = 1.13

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.35)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.0%

Win Probability (After): 72.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:35 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at PSU 44) KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 17 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 14 0.91 72.1% 3.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 27

Started Drive at: ARK 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.42 - 3.51 = 0.91

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.51)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.1%

Win Probability (After): 75.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:20 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at PSU 27) Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the PnSt 23 - PSU 10, ARK 14 -0.14 77.0% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 23

Started Drive at: ARK 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 4.48 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.48)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.0%

Win Probability (After): 76.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:05 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 6 at PSU 23) Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the PnSt 21 - PSU 10, ARK 14 -0.24 73.8% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 21

Started Drive at: ARK 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.09 - 4.33 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.33)

Score Difference (End): 4 (8.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.8%

Win Probability (After): 75.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:30 ESPN team id 8 (3rd & 4 at PSU 21) KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 18 - PSU 10, ARK 14 -0.32 75.4% -4.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 18

Started Drive at: ARK 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.71 - 4.03 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.03)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.4%

Win Probability (After): 71.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:52 ESPN team id 8 (4th & 1 at PSU 18) Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 14 1.46 74.9% 3.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 17

Started Drive at: ARK 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.09 - 3.64 = 1.46

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.64)

Score Difference (End): 4 (9.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.9%

Win Probability (After): 78.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 8:40 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at PSU 17) De'Vion Warren run for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 24 - PSU 10, ARK 14 -1.75 78.4% -5.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 24

Started Drive at: ARK 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.37 - 5.12 = -1.75

Score Difference (Before): 4 (9.12)

Score Difference (End): 4 (7.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.4%

Win Probability (After): 72.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:58 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 17 at PSU 24) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Dominique Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 27 - PSU 10, ARK 14 -0.81 74.5% -4.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 27

Started Drive at: ARK 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.50 - 3.30 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.30)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.5%

Win Probability (After): 70.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:25 ESPN team id 8 (3rd & 20 at PSU 27) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 9 yds to the PnSt 18 - PSU 10, ARK 14 -0.15 70.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 18

Started Drive at: ARK 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.34 - 2.48 = -0.15

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.48)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.5%

Win Probability (After): 70.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:29 ESPN team id 8 (4th & 11 at PSU 18) Cam Little 37 Yd Field Goal - PSU 10, ARK 17 0.62 70.3% 11.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: ARK 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.38 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.38)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.3%

Win Probability (After): 82.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:29 ESPN team id 213 (Kickoff at PSU 35) Cam Little kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PSU 10, ARK 17 0.00 21.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - -0.02 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.02)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.4%

Win Probability (After): 21.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:22 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 25) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 5 yds to the PnSt 30 - PSU 10, ARK 17 0.16 21.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.14 - -0.02 = 0.16

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.02)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.4%

Win Probability (After): 21.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:15 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 5 at PSU 30) Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 31 - PSU 10, ARK 17 -0.55 21.3% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 69

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.43 - 0.13 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.87)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.3%

Win Probability (After): 19.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:50 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 4 at PSU 31) Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 5 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 17 1.43 19.2% 5.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 64

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.00 - -0.44 = 1.43

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.44)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.2%

Win Probability (After): 24.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:10 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 36) Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the PnSt 37 - PSU 10, ARK 17 -0.58 22.8% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 63

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.41 - 0.98 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.02)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.8%

Win Probability (After): 21.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:35 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 9 at PSU 37) Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for no gain to the PnSt 37 - PSU 10, ARK 17 -0.80 21.9% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.39 - 0.41 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.59)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.9%

Win Probability (After): 19.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:52 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 9 at PSU 37) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Cam Sullivan-Brown - PSU 10, ARK 17 -1.43 19.7% -2.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.82 - -0.39 = -1.43

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.39)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.7%

Win Probability (After): 17.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:46 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 9 at PSU 37) Jordan Stout punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 21 - PSU 10, ARK 17 -0.21 16.8% 1.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 79

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.03 - -1.82 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.82)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.03)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 10, ARK 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.8%

Win Probability (After): 18.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:40 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at ARK 21) KJ Jefferson run for 34 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 17 1.73 81.6% 6.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 45

Started Drive at: ARK 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.77 - 2.04 = 1.73

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.04)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.6%

Win Probability (After): 88.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:09 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at PSU 45) Raheim Sanders run for 12 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 17 0.69 88.5% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 33

Started Drive at: ARK 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 3.80 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.80)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.5%

Win Probability (After): 89.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:28 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at PSU 33) Malik Hornsby run for 32 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 17 2.12 89.3% 2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 1

Started Drive at: ARK 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.61 - 4.49 = 2.12

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.49)

Score Difference (End): 7 (13.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.3%

Win Probability (After): 91.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:08 ESPN team id 8 (1st & Goal at PSU 1) Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) - PSU 10, ARK 24 0.39 91.9% 2.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: ARK 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.61 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (13.61)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.9%

Win Probability (After): 94.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:08 ESPN team id 213 (Kickoff at PSU 35) Cam Little kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PSU 10, ARK 24 0.00 7.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.50 - -0.50 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.50)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.0%

Win Probability (After): 7.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:01 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 25) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Malick Meiga - PSU 10, ARK 24 -0.64 7.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.09 - -0.45 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.45)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.1%

Win Probability (After): 6.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:30 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 10 at PSU 25) Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27 - PSU 10, ARK 24 -0.86 6.6% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.86 - -1.00 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.00)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.6%

Win Probability (After): 6.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:13 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 8 at PSU 27) Timeout PENN ST, clock 01:13 - PSU 10, ARK 24 0.00 6.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.86 - -1.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.86)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.3%

Win Probability (After): 6.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:00 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 8 at PSU 27) Sean Clifford run for 14 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 2.80 5.2% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 59

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - -1.82 = 2.80

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.82)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.2%

Win Probability (After): 6.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:45 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 41) Sean Clifford run for 13 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 1.10 7.0% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 46

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.09 - 0.99 = 1.10

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.01)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.0%

Win Probability (After): 7.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:34 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ARK 46) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith - PSU 10, ARK 24 -0.69 7.5% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.40 - 2.09 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.91)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.5%

Win Probability (After): 6.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 10 at ARK 46) Parker Washington run for 6 yds to the Ark 40 - PSU 10, ARK 24 0.14 6.9% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 40

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.52 - 1.38 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.62)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.9%

Win Probability (After): 7.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 4 at ARK 40) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Malick Meiga - PSU 10, ARK 24 -1.99 7.1% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.47 - 1.52 = -1.99

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.48)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.1%

Win Probability (After): 5.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:55 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 4 at ARK 40) Sean Clifford run for 7 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 3.73 5.8% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 33

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.26 - -0.47 = 3.73

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.47)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.8%

Win Probability (After): 7.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:35 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ARK 33) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Cam Sullivan-Brown - PSU 10, ARK 24 -0.67 7.9% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 3.26 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.74)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.9%

Win Probability (After): 7.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:11 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 10 at ARK 33) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Cam Sullivan-Brown - PSU 10, ARK 24 -1.04 7.4% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.49 - 2.53 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.47)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.4%

Win Probability (After): 6.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:00 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 10 at ARK 33) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 13 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 2.58 6.7% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 20

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.05 - 1.47 = 2.58

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.53)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.7%

Win Probability (After): 8.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:29 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at ARK 20) Sean Clifford run for 5 yds to the Ark 15 - PSU 10, ARK 24 0.34 8.9% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 15

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.47 - 4.14 = 0.34

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.86)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.9%

Win Probability (After): 9.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:20 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 5 at ARK 15) Keyvone Lee run for 5 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 0.30 9.0% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 10

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.81 - 4.51 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.49)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.0%

Win Probability (After): 10.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:39 ESPN team id 213 (1st & Goal at ARK 10) Sean Clifford pass intercepted, touchback. Joe Foucha return for no gain - PSU 10, ARK 24 -7.12 9.2% -5.7%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 80

Started Drive at: PSU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.33 - 4.80 = -7.12

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.20)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.33)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.2%

Win Probability (After): 3.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:30 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at ARK 20) KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Ark 23 - PSU 10, ARK 24 -0.37 96.9% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 77

Started Drive at: ARK 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 2.24 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.24)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.9%

Win Probability (After): 96.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:15 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 7 at ARK 23) KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to AJ Green - PSU 10, ARK 24 -1.08 96.7% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77

Started Drive at: ARK 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.71 - 1.79 = -1.08

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.79)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 95.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:05 ESPN team id 8 (3rd & 7 at ARK 23) Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the Ark 29 - PSU 10, ARK 24 -0.61 96.0% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 71

Started Drive at: ARK 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.16 - 0.77 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.77)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.0%

Win Probability (After): 95.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:50 ESPN team id 8 (4th & 1 at ARK 29) Sanders, Raheim rush for 4 yards to the ARKANSAS33, PENALTY PENNST substitution infraction 5 yards to the ARKANSAS34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS. - PSU 10, ARK 24 2.86 95.8% 1.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 66

Started Drive at: ARK 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.04 - 0.18 = 2.86

Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.18)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 11:30 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at ARK 34) Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the Ark 39 - PSU 10, ARK 24 -0.08 97.5% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 61

Started Drive at: ARK 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 3.00 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.00)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.5%

Win Probability (After): 97.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:00 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 5 at ARK 39) Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 0.58 97.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 55

Started Drive at: ARK 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 2.87 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.87)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.9%

Win Probability (After): 97.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 10:08 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at ARK 45) Dominique Johnson run for 6 yds to the PnSt 49 - PSU 10, ARK 24 0.23 98.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 49

Started Drive at: ARK 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.54 - 3.31 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.31)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.6%

Win Probability (After): 98.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:45 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 4 at PSU 49) KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line KJ Jefferson fumbled, recovered by Ark - PSU 10, ARK 24 -1.03 98.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 50

Started Drive at: ARK 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 3.43 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.43)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.6%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:10 ESPN team id 8 (3rd & 5 at 50) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Bryce Stephens for no gain to the 50 yard line - PSU 10, ARK 24 -1.58 98.5% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: ARK 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.54 - 2.12 = -1.58

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.12)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.5%

Win Probability (After): 97.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:30 ESPN team id 8 (4th & 5 at 50) Reid Bauer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Parker Washington at the PnSt 9 - PSU 10, ARK 24 0.58 98.1% -2.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 91

Started Drive at: ARK 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.28 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.28)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.86)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.1%

Win Probability (After): 96.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 8:25 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 9) Noah Cain run for 6 yds to the PnSt 15 - PSU 10, ARK 24 0.29 3.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 85

Started Drive at: PSU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.65 - -0.94 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.94)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.8%

Win Probability (After): 3.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:00 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 4 at PSU 15) Christian Veilleux pass complete to Parker Washington for 3 yds to the PnSt 18 - PSU 10, ARK 24 -0.48 3.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 82

Started Drive at: PSU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.03 - -0.55 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.55)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.7%

Win Probability (After): 3.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:40 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 1 at PSU 18) Christian Veilleux run for 13 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 1.41 2.9% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 69

Started Drive at: PSU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - -0.86 = 1.41

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.86)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.9%

Win Probability (After): 4.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:15 ESPN team id 213 (1st & 10 at PSU 31) Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 34 - PSU 10, ARK 24 -0.47 3.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 66

Started Drive at: PSU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.17 - 0.64 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.36)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.4%

Win Probability (After): 3.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:45 ESPN team id 213 (2nd & 7 at PSU 34) Christian Veilleux sacked by Joe Foucha for a loss of 10 yards to the PnSt 24 - PSU 10, ARK 24 -2.48 2.9% -0.9%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 76

Started Drive at: PSU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.87 - 0.62 = -2.48

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.38)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.9%

Win Probability (After): 2.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:02 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 17 at PSU 24) Timeout PENN ST, clock 06:02 - PSU 10, ARK 24 0.00 1.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76

Started Drive at: PSU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.87 - -1.87 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.87)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.7%

Win Probability (After): 1.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:55 ESPN team id 213 (3rd & 17 at PSU 24) Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Parker Washington - PSU 10, ARK 24 -0.70 1.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76

Started Drive at: PSU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.28 - -1.58 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.58)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-16.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.5%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:55 ESPN team id 213 (4th & 17 at PSU 24) Jordan Stout punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 36 - PSU 10, ARK 24 -0.09 1.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 64

Started Drive at: PSU 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.36 - -2.27 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-16.27)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.36)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:50 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at ARK 36) AJ Green run for 1 yd to the Ark 37 - PSU 10, ARK 24 -0.44 99.2% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 63

Started Drive at: ARK 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 2.26 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.26)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 5:05 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 9 at ARK 37) AJ Green run for 4 yds to the Ark 41 - PSU 10, ARK 24 -0.54 99.3% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 59

Started Drive at: ARK 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.31 - 1.86 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.86)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 98.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 4:15 ESPN team id 8 (3rd & 5 at ARK 41) Malik Hornsby run for 24 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 2.58 99.3% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 35

Started Drive at: ARK 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 1.21 = 2.58

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.21)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 3:39 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at PSU 35) ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 40 - PSU 10, ARK 24 -0.76 99.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 40

Started Drive at: ARK 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 3.39 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.39)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 3:35 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 15 at PSU 40) AJ Green run for 4 yds to the PnSt 36 - PSU 10, ARK 24 0.02 99.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 36

Started Drive at: ARK 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.55 - 2.53 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.53)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 3:33 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 11 at PSU 36) Timeout PENN ST, clock 03:33 - PSU 10, ARK 24 0.00 99.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: ARK 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.55 - 2.55 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.55)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 3:25 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 11 at PSU 36) Malik Hornsby run for 18 yds to the PnSt 18 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 2.02 99.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 18

Started Drive at: ARK 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.39 - 2.38 = 2.02

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.38)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:45 ESPN team id 8 (1st & 10 at PSU 18) Malik Hornsby run for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 25 - PSU 10, ARK 24 -1.50 99.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 25

Started Drive at: ARK 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 4.14 = -1.50

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.14)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:00 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & 17 at PSU 25) AJ Green run for 17 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 2.87 99.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 8

Started Drive at: ARK 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.15 - 2.28 = 2.87

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.28)

Score Difference (End): 14 (19.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:15 ESPN team id 8 (1st & Goal at PSU 8) ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 13 - PSU 10, ARK 24 -0.95 99.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 13

Started Drive at: ARK 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.89 - 4.85 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.85)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:45 ESPN team id 8 (1st & Goal at PSU 13) TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 16 - PSU 10, ARK 24 -0.89 99.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 16

Started Drive at: ARK 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.90 - 3.78 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.78)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:32 ESPN team id 8 (2nd & Goal at PSU 16) TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 19 - PSU 10, ARK 24 -1.13 99.6% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 19

Started Drive at: ARK 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 3.24 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.24)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: PSU 10, ARK 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1