Win Probability
Game Excitement Index: 4.32 | Odds: ARK -3.5, O/U 51.0 | Download Chart
Expected Points
Team Stats [show/hide]
| Overall |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 75 | 87 |
| Total EPA | -15.84 | 4.14 |
| Offensive EPA | -10.86 | 3.34 |
| Special Teams EPA | -4.33 | 0.76 |
| Penalty EPA | -2.06 | 0.04 |
| Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA | 1.41 | 0.00 |
| Production | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 63 | 78 |
| Yards | 338 | 451 |
| Yards/Play | 5.37 | 5.78 |
| EPA | -10.86 | 3.34 |
| EPA/Play | -0.17 | 0.04 |
| Passes | 37 (59%) | 25 (32%) |
| Yards | 198 | 98 |
| Yards/Play | 5.35 | 3.92 |
| EPA | -20.25 | -16.79 |
| EPA/Play | -0.55 | -0.67 |
| Rushes | 26 (41%) | 53 (68%) |
| Yards | 148 | 377 |
| Yards/Play | 5.69 | 7.11 |
| EPA | 9.39 | 20.13 |
| EPA/Play | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| Rushing | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 63 | 78 |
| Rushes | 26 (41%) | 53 (68%) |
| Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) | 1 (4%) | 1 (2%) |
| Successful Power Runs (Rate) | 1 (100%) | 1 (100%) |
| Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) | 3 (12%) | 7 (13%) |
| Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) | 9 (35%) | 16 (30%) |
| Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) | 14 (54%) | 31 (58%) |
| OL Line Yards | 44.2 | 61.8 |
| Per Carry | 1.70 | 1.17 |
| Highlight Yards | 48 | 173.5 |
| Per Rush Opportunity | 3.43 | 5.60 |
| Explosiveness | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 75 | 87 |
| Scrimmage Plays | 63 | 78 |
| Explosive Plays | 7 (11%) | 7 (9%) |
| When Passing (EPA > 2.4) | 4 (11%) | 1 (4%) |
| When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) | 3 (12%) | 6 (11%) |
| EPA w/o Explosive Plays | -32.70 | -16.03 |
| EPA/Play | -0.58 | -0.23 |
| When Passing | -33.01 | -19.95 |
| EPA/Play | -0.89 | -0.80 |
| When Rushing | 0.32 | 3.92 |
| EPA/Play | 0.01 | 0.08 |
| Situational | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Successful Plays (EPA > 0) | 22 (35%) | 37 (47%) |
| When Passing | 9 (24%) | 9 (36%) |
| When Rushing | 13 (50%) | 28 (53%) |
| On Standard Downs | 17 (43%) | 29 (53%) |
| On Passing Downs | 5 (22%) | 8 (35%) |
| On Early Downs | 15 (33%) | 29 (48%) |
| On Late Downs | 7 (41%) | 8 (47%) |
| During "Middle 8" | 2 (20%) | 9 (64%) |
| Early Downs | 46 | 61 |
| First Downs Created | 9 (20%) | 17 (28%) |
| EPA | -15.96 | -3.90 |
| EPA/Play | -0.35 | -0.06 |
| Passes | 25 (54%) | 17 (28%) |
| Rushes | 21 (46%) | 44 (72%) |
| Successful Passes (Rate) | 6 (24%) | 6 (35%) |
| Successful Rushes (Rate) | 9 (43%) | 23 (52%) |
| "Middle 8" Plays | 10 | 14 |
| EPA | -3.10 | 3.65 |
| EPA/play | -0.31 | 0.26 |
| Passes | 5 (50%) | 5 (36%) |
| Rushes | 5 (50%) | 9 (64%) |
| Successful Passes (Rate) | 1 (20%) | 2 (40%) |
| Successful Rushes (Rate) | 1 (20%) | 7 (78%) |
| Drives | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total | 12 | 12 |
| Avg Starting Field Position | Own 22 | Own 31 |
| Plays/Drive | 7.79 | 7.68 |
| Yards/Drive | 38.48 | 41.58 |
| Available Yards % | 49% | 60% |
| Defensive | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 78 | 63 |
| Stop Rate | 33% | 49% |
| Havoc Plays Created | 14 (18%) | 8 (13%) |
| Passing | 9 (36%) | 6 (16%) |
| Rushing | 5 (9%) | 2 (8%) |
| TFLs Generated | 12 | 6 |
| Passing | 7 | 4 |
| Rushing | 5 | 2 |
| Sacks Generated | 5 (20%) | 2 (5%) |
| Passes Defensed | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 2 | 2 |
| Fumbles Forced | 0 | 0 |
| Turnovers | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Fumbles | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles Lost | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles Recovered | 1 | 2 |
| Interceptions | 2 | 2 |
| Turnover Margin | 0 | 0 |
| Expected Turnovers | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Expected Turnover Margin | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Turnover Luck (pts) | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Special Teams | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 12 | 9 |
| Total EPA | -4.33 | 0.76 |
| Field Goal EPA | -2.67 | 0.62 |
| Punting EPA | -1.66 | 0.14 |
| Kickoff Return EPA | 0 | 0 |
Penn State [show/hide]
| Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | |||||||
| Jordan Stout | 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 13.9 xQBR | 0.00 | -1.45 | -1.45 | 0% | -6.0% | |
| Christian Veilleux | 1/2, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 41.2 xQBR | 1.00 | -1.22 | -3.66 | 0% | -1.0% | |
| Sean Clifford | 14/32, 195 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 1 Sck, 44.5 xQBR | 5.91 | -0.46 | -15.14 | 27% | -10.0% | |
| Rush attempts | |||||||
| Sean Clifford | 11 carries, 59 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 5.36 | 0.64 | 6.99 | 45% | 2.0% | |
| Christian Veilleux | 1 carry, 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 13.00 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 100% | 1.0% | |
| Devyn Ford | 1 carry, 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 4.00 | 0.89 | 0.89 | 100% | 3.0% | |
| Keyvone Lee | 4 carries, 35 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 8.75 | 0.19 | 0.78 | 50% | 0.0% | |
| Parker Washington | 2 carries, 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.00 | 0.21 | 0.43 | 100% | 1.0% | |
| Noah Cain | 5 carries, 28 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 5.60 | -0.07 | -0.34 | 40% | 0.0% | |
| TEAM | 2 carries, -3 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) | -1.50 | -0.38 | -0.77 | 0% | -3.0% | |
| Pass targets | |||||||
| Parker Washington | 7 catches (8 targets), 98 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 14.00 | 0.90 | 7.20 | 62% | 13.0% | |
| Noah Cain | 2 catches (2 targets), 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.00 | 0.52 | 1.05 | 50% | 5.0% | |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 3 catches (7 targets), 74 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 24.67 | 0.13 | 0.90 | 29% | 9.0% | |
| Keyvone Lee | 1 catch (2 targets), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 15.00 | -0.18 | -0.36 | 50% | 0.0% | |
| Tyler Warren | 1 catch (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 0.00 | -0.47 | -0.47 | 0% | -2.0% | |
| Theo Johnson | 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 0.00 | -0.60 | -1.20 | 0% | -2.0% | |
| Brenton Strange | 1 catch (2 targets), -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | -1.00 | -0.77 | -1.54 | 0% | -4.0% | |
| Cam Sullivan-Brown | 0 catches (3 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 0.00 | -1.05 | -3.14 | 0% | -4.0% | |
| Malick Meiga | 0 catches (3 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 0.00 | -1.05 | -3.14 | 0% | -4.0% | |
Arkansas [show/hide]
| Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | |||||||
| Warren Thompson | 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 0 Scks, 18.8 xQBR | 0.00 | -1.93 | -1.93 | 0% | -13.0% | |
| KJ Jefferson | 14/19, 98 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 5 Scks, 26.3 xQBR | 4.08 | -0.62 | -14.86 | 38% | -25.0% | |
| Rush attempts | |||||||
| KJ Jefferson | 15 carries, 134 yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) | 8.93 | 0.52 | 7.74 | 47% | 27.0% | |
| Raheim Sanders | 13 carries, 79 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.08 | 0.43 | 5.56 | 69% | 23.0% | |
| Malik Hornsby | 4 carries, 67 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 16.75 | 1.30 | 5.21 | 75% | 2.0% | |
| Dominique Johnson | 11 carries, 77 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 7.00 | 0.39 | 4.30 | 64% | 13.0% | |
| AJ Green | 4 carries, 26 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.50 | 0.48 | 1.91 | 50% | -1.0% | |
| Trelon Smith | 2 carries, 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 3.00 | -0.19 | -0.38 | 0% | 0.0% | |
| TEAM | 2 carries, -6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | -3.00 | -1.01 | -2.01 | 0% | 0.0% | |
| De'Vion Warren | 2 carries, -6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | -3.00 | -1.10 | -2.21 | 0% | -6.0% | |
| Pass targets | |||||||
| De'Vion Warren | 3 catches (3 targets), 33 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 11.00 | 0.53 | 1.60 | 100% | 6.0% | |
| Blake Kern | 1 catch (1 target), 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 8.00 | 1.57 | 1.57 | 100% | 6.0% | |
| Trey Knox | 2 catches (2 targets), 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 5.50 | 0.44 | 0.89 | 100% | 2.0% | |
| Tyson Morris | 3 catches (4 targets), 32 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 10.67 | 0.19 | 0.75 | 25% | 3.0% | |
| Warren Thompson | 1 catch (1 target), 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 12.00 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 100% | 1.0% | |
| Dominique Johnson | 1 catch (1 target), -3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | -3.00 | -0.81 | -0.81 | 0% | -4.0% | |
| Bryce Stephens | 3 catches (3 targets), 5 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) | 1.67 | -0.81 | -2.44 | 33% | -3.0% | |
| AJ Green | 0 catches (3 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 0.00 | -0.89 | -2.67 | 0% | -5.0% | |
Big Plays [show/hide]
As determined by absolute EPA.
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 12:39 | |
(1st & Goal at ARK 10) Sean Clifford pass intercepted, touchback. Joe Foucha return for no gain - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -7.12 | 9.2% | -5.7% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 80 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.33 - 4.80 = -7.12 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.20) Score Difference (End): 14 (16.33) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 14 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.2% Win Probability (After): 3.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 9:24 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 11) KJ Jefferson pass intercepted, touchback. Ji'Ayir Brown return for no gain - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -5.98 | 64.8% | -7.7% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 80 Started Drive at: ARK 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.84 - 5.14 = -5.98 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.14) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.84) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 57 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.8% Win Probability (After): 57.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 8:51 | |
(2nd & 4 at PSU 26) Sean Clifford pass intercepted Greg Brooks Jr. return for no gain to the PnSt 42 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -4.37 | 45.5% | -6.8% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 42 Started Drive at: PSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.38 - 0.99 = -4.37 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.99) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.38) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 45.5% Win Probability (After): 38.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:53 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 42) Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 42 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) - PSU 7, ARK 7 | 4.12 | 32.1% | 13.7% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 99 Started Drive at: ARK 42 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.88 = 4.12 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.12) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 7, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.1% Win Probability (After): 45.8% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 3:00 | |
(4th & 3 at PSU 41) KJ Jefferson run for 13 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 | 3.77 | 52.5% | 8.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 28 Started Drive at: ARK 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.31 - 0.54 = 3.77 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.54) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.31) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 33 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.5% Win Probability (After): 60.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 14:55 | |
(4th & 4 at ARK 40) Sean Clifford run for 7 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 3.73 | 5.8% | 2.0% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 33 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.26 - -0.47 = 3.73 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.47) Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.74) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 5.8% Win Probability (After): 7.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 13:25 | |
(2nd & 7 at PSU 39) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 42 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 | 3.27 | 47.8% | 6.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 19 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.76 - 1.49 = 3.27 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.49) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.76) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 56 yards Win Probability (Before): 47.8% Win Probability (After): 54.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 11:40 | |
(3rd & 9 at ARK 33) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 21 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 | 3.16 | 52.0% | 9.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 46 Started Drive at: ARK 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 0.03 = 3.16 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.03) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.19) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.0% Win Probability (After): 61.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 12:39 | |
(4th & 23 at ARK 32) Jake Pinegar 50 yd FG MISSED - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -3.03 | 45.9% | -3.1% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Missed Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 68 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.76 - 1.27 = -3.03 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.27) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.76) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 43 yards Win Probability (Before): 45.9% Win Probability (After): 42.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 2:00 | |
(2nd & 17 at PSU 25) AJ Green run for 17 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 2.87 | 99.6% | 0.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 8 Started Drive at: ARK 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.15 - 2.28 = 2.87 Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.28) Score Difference (End): 14 (19.15) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.6% Win Probability (After): 99.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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Most Important Plays [show/hide]
As determined by absolute WPA.
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 10:53 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 42) Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 42 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) - PSU 7, ARK 7 | 4.12 | 32.1% | 13.7% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 99 Started Drive at: ARK 42 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.88 = 4.12 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.12) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 7, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.1% Win Probability (After): 45.8% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:21 | |
(2nd & 5 at PSU 38) Warren Thompson pass intercepted Ji'Ayir Brown return for no gain to the PnSt 18 - PSU 10, ARK 7 | -1.93 | 52.7% | -13.1% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 82 Started Drive at: ARK 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.26 - 1.67 = -1.93 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.33) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.26) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.7% Win Probability (After): 39.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q3 6:29 | |
(4th & 11 at PSU 18) Cam Little 37 Yd Field Goal - PSU 10, ARK 17 | 0.62 | 70.3% | 11.8% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18 Started Drive at: ARK 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.38 = 0.62 Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.38) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 17 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 70.3% Win Probability (After): 82.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 0:00 | |
(1st & Goal at PSU 3) Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) - PSU 0, ARK 7 | 0.83 | 60.4% | 10.3% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99 Started Drive at: ARK 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.17 = 0.83 Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.17) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 66 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.4% Win Probability (After): 70.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 11:40 | |
(3rd & 9 at ARK 33) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 21 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 | 3.16 | 52.0% | 9.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 46 Started Drive at: ARK 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 0.03 = 3.16 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.03) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.19) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.0% Win Probability (After): 61.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 5:19 | |
(4th & 11 at ARK 15) Jake Pinegar 33 yd FG GOOD - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 0.36 | 51.7% | 9.7% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15 Started Drive at: PSU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.64 = 0.36 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.64) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 56 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.7% Win Probability (After): 61.4% Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 3:00 | |
(4th & 3 at PSU 41) KJ Jefferson run for 13 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 | 3.77 | 52.5% | 8.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 28 Started Drive at: ARK 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.31 - 0.54 = 3.77 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.54) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.31) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 33 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.5% Win Probability (After): 60.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 9:24 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 11) KJ Jefferson pass intercepted, touchback. Ji'Ayir Brown return for no gain - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -5.98 | 64.8% | -7.7% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 80 Started Drive at: ARK 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.84 - 5.14 = -5.98 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.14) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.84) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 57 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.8% Win Probability (After): 57.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 14:25 | |
(3rd & 8 at PSU 27) Sean Clifford run for 9 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 | 2.54 | 42.4% | 7.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 64 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - -0.57 = 2.54 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.57) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 42.4% Win Probability (After): 49.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:42 | |
(1st & Goal at PSU 8) KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) - PSU 10, ARK 14 | 1.72 | 61.4% | 7.3% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.28 = 1.72 Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.28) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 14 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.4% Win Probability (After): 68.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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Scoring Plays [show/hide]
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:00 | |
(1st & Goal at PSU 3) Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) - PSU 0, ARK 7 | 0.83 | 60.4% | 10.3% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99 Started Drive at: ARK 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.17 = 0.83 Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.17) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 66 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.4% Win Probability (After): 70.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:53 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 42) Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 42 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) - PSU 7, ARK 7 | 4.12 | 32.1% | 13.7% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 99 Started Drive at: ARK 42 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.88 = 4.12 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.12) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 7, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.1% Win Probability (After): 45.8% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 5:19 | |
(4th & 11 at ARK 15) Jake Pinegar 33 yd FG GOOD - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 0.36 | 51.7% | 9.7% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15 Started Drive at: PSU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.64 = 0.36 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.64) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 56 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.7% Win Probability (After): 61.4% Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 12:42 | |
(1st & Goal at PSU 8) KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) - PSU 10, ARK 14 | 1.72 | 61.4% | 7.3% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.28 = 1.72 Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.28) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 14 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.4% Win Probability (After): 68.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 6:29 | |
(4th & 11 at PSU 18) Cam Little 37 Yd Field Goal - PSU 10, ARK 17 | 0.62 | 70.3% | 11.8% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18 Started Drive at: ARK 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.38 = 0.62 Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.38) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 17 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 70.3% Win Probability (After): 82.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 2:08 | |
(1st & Goal at PSU 1) Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 0.39 | 91.9% | 2.3% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: ARK 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.61 = 0.39 Score Difference (Before): 7 (13.61) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 79 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.9% Win Probability (After): 94.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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All Plays [show/hide]
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at PSU 35) Cam Little kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PSU 0, ARK 0 | 0.00 | 41.6% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 41.6% Win Probability (After): 41.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 14:55 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 25) Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -0.61 | 46.3% | -2.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.32 - 0.94 = -0.61 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.94) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.32) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.3% Win Probability (After): 43.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 14:40 | |
(2nd & 8 at PSU 27) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -1.16 | 45.3% | -3.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.65 - 0.51 = -1.16 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.51) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.65) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 45.3% Win Probability (After): 41.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 14:25 | |
(3rd & 8 at PSU 27) Sean Clifford run for 9 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 | 2.54 | 42.4% | 7.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 64 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - -0.57 = 2.54 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.57) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 42.4% Win Probability (After): 49.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 14:00 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 36) Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the PnSt 39 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -0.51 | 50.1% | -2.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 61 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.49 - 2.00 = -0.51 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.00) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.49) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.1% Win Probability (After): 48.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:25 | |
(2nd & 7 at PSU 39) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 42 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 | 3.27 | 47.8% | 6.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 19 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.76 - 1.49 = 3.27 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.49) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.76) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 56 yards Win Probability (Before): 47.8% Win Probability (After): 54.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 12:55 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 19) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Brenton Strange - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -0.59 | 55.3% | -1.4% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.16 - 4.75 = -0.59 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.75) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 56 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.3% Win Probability (After): 53.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 12:49 | |
(2nd & 10 at ARK 19) Sean Clifford pass incomplete - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -0.77 | 53.4% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.38 - 4.16 = -0.77 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.16) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.38) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 56 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.4% Win Probability (After): 53.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 12:45 | |
(3rd & 10 at ARK 19) Sean Clifford sacked by Hayden Henry for a loss of 13 yards to the Ark 32 PENN ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Ark 32 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -2.19 | 52.2% | -5.7% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 32 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 3.37 = -2.19 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.38) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.20) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 43 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.2% Win Probability (After): 46.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 12:39 | |
(4th & 23 at ARK 32) Jake Pinegar 50 yd FG MISSED - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -3.03 | 45.9% | -3.1% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Missed Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 68 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.76 - 1.27 = -3.03 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.27) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.76) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 43 yards Win Probability (Before): 45.9% Win Probability (After): 42.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 12:35 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 32) KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 32 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -0.81 | 56.2% | -1.2% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 68 Started Drive at: ARK 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 1.76 = -0.81 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.76) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.95) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.2% Win Probability (After): 55.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 12:15 | |
(2nd & 10 at ARK 32) Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd to the Ark 33 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -0.87 | 56.0% | -4.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 67 Started Drive at: ARK 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 0.93 = -0.87 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.93) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.06) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.0% Win Probability (After): 51.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 11:40 | |
(3rd & 9 at ARK 33) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 21 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 | 3.16 | 52.0% | 9.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 46 Started Drive at: ARK 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 0.03 = 3.16 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.03) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.19) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.0% Win Probability (After): 61.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 10:55 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 46) Dominique Johnson run for 25 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 | 1.52 | 62.1% | 3.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 21 Started Drive at: ARK 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.69 - 3.17 = 1.52 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.17) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.69) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 47 yards Win Probability (Before): 62.1% Win Probability (After): 65.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 10:34 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 21) Dominique Johnson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 18 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -0.36 | 65.1% | 0.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 18 Started Drive at: ARK 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.35 - 4.71 = -0.36 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.71) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.1% Win Probability (After): 65.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 10:10 | |
(2nd & 7 at PSU 18) Dominique Johnson run for 7 yds to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 | 0.76 | 64.2% | 1.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 11 Started Drive at: ARK 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.15 - 4.39 = 0.76 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.39) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.15) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 57 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.2% Win Probability (After): 66.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 9:24 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 11) KJ Jefferson pass intercepted, touchback. Ji'Ayir Brown return for no gain - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -5.98 | 64.8% | -7.7% |
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Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 80 Started Drive at: ARK 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.84 - 5.14 = -5.98 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.14) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.84) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 57 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.8% Win Probability (After): 57.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 9:20 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 20) Parker Washington run for 6 yds to the PnSt 26 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | 0.29 | 44.6% | 1.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 74 Started Drive at: PSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 0.79 = 0.29 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.79) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.08) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 44.6% Win Probability (After): 45.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 8:51 | |
(2nd & 4 at PSU 26) Sean Clifford pass intercepted Greg Brooks Jr. return for no gain to the PnSt 42 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -4.37 | 45.5% | -6.8% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 42 Started Drive at: PSU 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.38 - 0.99 = -4.37 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.99) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.38) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 45.5% Win Probability (After): 38.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 8:45 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 42) Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 41 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -0.48 | 61.3% | -0.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 41 Started Drive at: PSU 42 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 3.35 = -0.48 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.35) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.87) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.3% Win Probability (After): 60.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 8:15 | |
(2nd & 9 at PSU 41) KJ Jefferson sacked by Curtis Jacobs for 0 yards to the PnSt 41 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -0.96 | 60.3% | -2.3% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41 Started Drive at: PSU 42 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 2.89 = -0.96 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.89) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.93) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.3% Win Probability (After): 58.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:39 | |
(3rd & 9 at PSU 41) KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Tyson Morris - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -1.94 | 56.4% | -5.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41 Started Drive at: PSU 42 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.00 - 1.94 = -1.94 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.94) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.4% Win Probability (After): 50.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:32 | |
(4th & 9 at PSU 41) Reid Bauer punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 8 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | 0.32 | 52.3% | 5.3% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 92 Started Drive at: PSU 42 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - -0.10 = 0.32 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.10) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.22) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.3% Win Probability (After): 57.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 7:15 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 8) Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the PnSt 10 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -0.65 | 42.3% | -1.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 90 Started Drive at: PSU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.84 - -0.19 = -0.65 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.19) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.84) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 42.3% Win Probability (After): 41.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:00 | |
(2nd & 8 at PSU 10) Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 9 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -0.95 | 41.0% | -2.4% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 91 Started Drive at: PSU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.71 - -0.77 = -0.95 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.77) Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.71) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 41.0% Win Probability (After): 38.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 6:40 | |
(3rd & 9 at PSU 9) Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 7 yds to the PnSt 16 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -0.39 | 38.7% | -0.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 84 Started Drive at: PSU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.03 - -1.65 = -0.39 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.65) Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.03) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 38.7% Win Probability (After): 38.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 5:42 | |
(4th & 2 at PSU 16) Jordan Stout punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 39 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -0.09 | 38.9% | 2.4% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 61 Started Drive at: PSU 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.11 - -2.02 = -0.09 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.02) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.11) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 38.9% Win Probability (After): 41.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 5:18 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 39) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Bryce Stephens for 6 yds Bryce Stephens fumbled, recovered by Ark - PSU 0, ARK 0 | 0.29 | 55.8% | 2.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 55 Started Drive at: ARK 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 2.10 = 0.29 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.10) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.8% Win Probability (After): 58.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 5:00 | |
(2nd & 4 at ARK 45) Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 | 0.63 | 56.6% | 1.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 48 Started Drive at: ARK 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.02 - 2.39 = 0.63 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.39) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.02) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.6% Win Probability (After): 58.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 4:40 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 48) KJ Jefferson sacked by Smith Vilbert for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 48 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -1.49 | 58.7% | -5.4% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 52 Started Drive at: ARK 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - 3.02 = -1.49 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.02) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.53) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.7% Win Probability (After): 53.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 4:15 | |
(2nd & 14 at ARK 48) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Bryce Stephens for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 47 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -1.15 | 54.9% | -3.8% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 53 Started Drive at: ARK 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 1.53 = -1.15 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.53) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.38) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.9% Win Probability (After): 51.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 3:55 | |
(3rd & 15 at ARK 47) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Warren Thompson for 12 yds to the PnSt 41 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | 0.18 | 51.1% | 1.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 41 Started Drive at: ARK 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 0.37 = 0.18 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.37) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.56) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.1% Win Probability (After): 52.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 3:00 | |
(4th & 3 at PSU 41) KJ Jefferson run for 13 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 | 3.77 | 52.5% | 8.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 28 Started Drive at: ARK 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.31 - 0.54 = 3.77 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.54) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.31) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 33 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.5% Win Probability (After): 60.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 2:45 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 28) Raheim Sanders run for 14 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 | 0.76 | 60.9% | 2.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 14 Started Drive at: ARK 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.07 - 4.31 = 0.76 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.31) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.07) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 47 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.9% Win Probability (After): 63.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 2:15 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 14) Jefferson, KJ pass complete to Kern, Blake for 11 yards to the PENNST3, PENALTY ARKANSAS ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the PENNST19, NO PLAY. - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -0.72 | 63.1% | -1.4% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 19 Started Drive at: ARK 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 5.06 = -0.72 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.06) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.34) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 47 yards Win Probability (Before): 63.1% Win Probability (After): 61.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 1:45 | |
(1st & 15 at PSU 19) Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the PnSt 16 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -0.24 | 61.3% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 16 Started Drive at: ARK 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.09 - 4.33 = -0.24 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.33) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.3% Win Probability (After): 61.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 1:09 | |
(2nd & 12 at PSU 16) KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the PnSt 11 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -0.16 | 58.3% | 1.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 11 Started Drive at: ARK 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.94 - 4.10 = -0.16 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.10) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.94) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.3% Win Probability (After): 59.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 0:40 | |
(3rd & 7 at PSU 11) KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the PnSt 6 - PSU 0, ARK 0 | -0.56 | 56.8% | 0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 6 Started Drive at: ARK 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.39 - 3.95 = -0.56 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.95) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 60 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.8% Win Probability (After): 57.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 0:20 | |
(4th & 2 at PSU 6) Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 0 | 2.85 | 55.9% | 5.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 3 Started Drive at: ARK 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.22 - 3.37 = 2.85 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.37) Score Difference (End): 0 (6.22) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 0 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 63 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.9% Win Probability (After): 61.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 0:00 | |
(1st & Goal at PSU 3) Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) - PSU 0, ARK 7 | 0.83 | 60.4% | 10.3% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99 Started Drive at: ARK 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.17 = 0.83 Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.17) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 66 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.4% Win Probability (After): 70.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at PSU 35) Cam Little kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PSU 0, ARK 7 | 0.00 | 27.6% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.16 - 0.16 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.84) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.84) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.6% Win Probability (After): 27.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 14:53 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 25) Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29 - PSU 0, ARK 7 | -0.10 | 27.7% | -0.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.07 - 0.17 = -0.10 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.83) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.93) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.7% Win Probability (After): 27.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 14:22 | |
(2nd & 6 at PSU 29) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith - PSU 0, ARK 7 | -0.92 | 27.3% | -1.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.84 - 0.07 = -0.92 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.93) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.84) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.3% Win Probability (After): 26.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 14:15 | |
(3rd & 6 at PSU 29) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 19 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 7 | 2.79 | 26.1% | 3.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 52 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - -0.83 = 2.79 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.83) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.03) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.1% Win Probability (After): 29.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 13:50 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 48) Noah Cain run for 16 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST down - PSU 0, ARK 7 | 1.07 | 29.9% | 2.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 36 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.01 - 1.94 = 1.07 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.06) Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.9% Win Probability (After): 32.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 13:05 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 36) TEAM run for no gain to the Ark 36 TEAM fumbled, recovered by PnSt Sean Clifford - PSU 0, ARK 7 | -0.66 | 32.6% | -2.0% |
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Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 3.10 = -0.66 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.90) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.57) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.6% Win Probability (After): 30.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 12:20 | |
(2nd & 10 at ARK 36) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Theo Johnson - PSU 0, ARK 7 | -1.04 | 29.5% | -1.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 2.51 = -1.04 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.49) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.53) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.5% Win Probability (After): 28.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 12:11 | |
(3rd & 10 at ARK 36) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith - PSU 0, ARK 7 | -1.59 | 27.7% | -2.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.08 - 1.51 = -1.59 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.49) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.08) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.7% Win Probability (After): 25.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 12:04 | |
(4th & 10 at ARK 36) Jordan Stout punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 10 - PSU 0, ARK 7 | -1.22 | 25.5% | -3.2% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 90 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.24 - -0.02 = -1.22 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.02) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.24) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 0, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.5% Win Probability (After): 22.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 12:00 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 10) KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to AJ Green - PSU 0, ARK 7 | -0.70 | 77.1% | -1.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90 Started Drive at: ARK 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - 1.28 = -0.70 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.28) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.58) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.1% Win Probability (After): 75.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 11:54 | |
(2nd & 10 at ARK 10) KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to AJ Green - PSU 0, ARK 7 | -0.89 | 75.9% | -2.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90 Started Drive at: ARK 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.36 - 0.53 = -0.89 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.53) Score Difference (End): 7 (6.64) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.9% Win Probability (After): 73.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 11:50 | |
(3rd & 10 at ARK 10) KJ Jefferson sacked by Smith Vilbert for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 6 - PSU 0, ARK 7 | -1.57 | 74.2% | -3.3% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 94 Started Drive at: ARK 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.97 - -0.41 = -1.57 Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.59) Score Difference (End): 7 (5.03) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 0, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards Win Probability (Before): 74.2% Win Probability (After): 70.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 11:00 | |
(4th & 14 at ARK 6) Reid Bauer punt for 54 yds , Johnny Dixon returns for 18 yds to the Ark 42 - PSU 0, ARK 7 | -0.83 | 72.2% | -2.8% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 42 Started Drive at: ARK 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.74 - -1.91 = -0.83 Score Difference (Before): 7 (5.09) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.26) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 0, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards Win Probability (Before): 72.2% Win Probability (After): 69.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 10:53 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 42) Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 42 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) - PSU 7, ARK 7 | 4.12 | 32.1% | 13.7% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 99 Started Drive at: ARK 42 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.88 = 4.12 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.12) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 7, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.1% Win Probability (After): 45.8% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:53 | |
(Kickoff at ARK 35) Jordan Stout kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PSU 7, ARK 7 | 0.00 | 54.7% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.19 - 1.19 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.19) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.19) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 7, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.7% Win Probability (After): 54.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:50 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 25) Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the Ark 30 - PSU 7, ARK 7 | 0.17 | 55.2% | 1.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - 1.19 = 0.17 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.19) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 7, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.2% Win Probability (After): 56.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:25 | |
(2nd & 5 at ARK 30) Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 32 - PSU 7, ARK 7 | -0.78 | 56.9% | -3.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 68 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.67 - 1.45 = -0.78 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.45) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.67) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 7, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.9% Win Probability (After): 53.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:06 | |
(3rd & 3 at ARK 32) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Blake Kern for 8 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST down - PSU 7, ARK 7 | 1.57 | 53.1% | 6.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 60 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 0.78 = 1.57 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.78) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 7, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.1% Win Probability (After): 59.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 9:50 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 40) De'Vion Warren run for 1 yd to the Ark 41 - PSU 7, ARK 7 | -0.46 | 58.1% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 59 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.85 - 2.31 = -0.46 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.31) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.85) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 7, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.1% Win Probability (After): 57.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 9:20 | |
(2nd & 9 at ARK 41) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 6 yds to the Ark 47 - PSU 7, ARK 7 | 0.08 | 56.7% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 53 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.72 - 1.64 = 0.08 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.64) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.72) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 7, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.7% Win Probability (After): 56.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 8:50 | |
(3rd & 3 at ARK 47) KJ Jefferson sacked by Nick Tarburton for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 40 - PSU 7, ARK 7 | -2.34 | 55.2% | -6.4% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 60 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.83 - 1.51 = -2.34 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.51) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 7, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.2% Win Probability (After): 48.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 7:59 | |
(4th & 10 at ARK 40) Reid Bauer punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 24 - PSU 7, ARK 7 | -0.29 | 46.4% | 7.1% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 76 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.03 - -0.74 = -0.29 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.74) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.03) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 7, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.4% Win Probability (After): 53.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 7:55 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 24) Keyvone Lee run for 25 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST down - PSU 7, ARK 7 | 1.60 | 47.0% | 3.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 51 Started Drive at: PSU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.69 - 1.09 = 1.60 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.09) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.69) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 7, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 47.0% Win Probability (After): 50.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 7:35 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 49) Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 15 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST down - PSU 7, ARK 7 | 0.92 | 50.5% | 2.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 36 Started Drive at: PSU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 2.69 = 0.92 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.69) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.61) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 7, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.5% Win Probability (After): 53.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 7:14 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 36) ARKANSAS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Ark 31 - PSU 7, ARK 7 | 0.50 | 53.5% | 0.3% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 31 Started Drive at: PSU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.25 - 3.76 = 0.50 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.76) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.25) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 7, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.5% Win Probability (After): 53.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 7:00 | |
(1st & 5 at ARK 31) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 17 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST down - PSU 7, ARK 7 | 0.50 | 54.0% | 3.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 14 Started Drive at: PSU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.86 - 4.35 = 0.50 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.35) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 7, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 57 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.0% Win Probability (After): 57.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 6:15 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 14) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Malick Meiga - PSU 7, ARK 7 | -0.51 | 58.0% | -2.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14 Started Drive at: PSU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.33 - 4.84 = -0.51 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.84) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.33) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 7, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 57 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.0% Win Probability (After): 55.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 6:05 | |
(2nd & 10 at ARK 14) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 15 - PSU 7, ARK 7 | -0.93 | 55.6% | -2.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 15 Started Drive at: PSU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 4.27 = -0.93 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.27) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.34) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 7, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 56 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.6% Win Probability (After): 53.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 5:28 | |
(3rd & 11 at ARK 15) Timeout PENN ST, clock 05:28 - PSU 7, ARK 7 | 0.00 | 57.3% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15 Started Drive at: PSU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - 3.34 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.34) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.34) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 7, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 56 yards Win Probability (Before): 57.3% Win Probability (After): 57.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 5:24 | |
(3rd & 11 at ARK 15) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith - PSU 7, ARK 7 | -0.72 | 55.2% | -3.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15 Started Drive at: PSU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 3.34 = -0.72 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.34) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.63) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 7, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 56 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.2% Win Probability (After): 51.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 5:19 | |
(4th & 11 at ARK 15) Jake Pinegar 33 yd FG GOOD - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 0.36 | 51.7% | 9.7% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15 Started Drive at: PSU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.64 = 0.36 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.64) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 56 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.7% Win Probability (After): 61.4% Away Score: 7 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 5:19 | |
(Kickoff at ARK 35) Jordan Stout kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 0.00 | 48.3% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.14) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.14) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 48.3% Win Probability (After): 48.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 5:12 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 25) KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the Ark 25 - PSU 10, ARK 7 | -0.54 | 48.2% | -1.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.34 - 0.88 = -0.54 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.12) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.66) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 48.2% Win Probability (After): 46.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 4:45 | |
(2nd & 10 at ARK 25) KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 7 yds to the Ark 32 - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 0.12 | 46.8% | -0.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 68 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.42 - 0.31 = 0.12 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.69) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.58) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.8% Win Probability (After): 46.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 4:20 | |
(3rd & 3 at ARK 32) Dominique Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 1.20 | 46.0% | 4.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 64 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - 0.44 = 1.20 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.56) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.0% Win Probability (After): 50.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 4:00 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 36) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 2 yds to the Ark 38 - PSU 10, ARK 7 | -0.32 | 50.3% | -0.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 62 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.25 - 1.57 = -0.32 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.43) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.75) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.3% Win Probability (After): 49.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 3:30 | |
(2nd & 8 at ARK 38) KJ Jefferson sacked by Smith Vilbert for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 29 - PSU 10, ARK 7 | -1.60 | 48.7% | -7.0% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 71 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.46 - 1.14 = -1.60 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.86) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.46) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 48.7% Win Probability (After): 41.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 2:57 | |
(3rd & 17 at ARK 29) KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Ark 36 - PSU 10, ARK 7 | -0.47 | 41.5% | -1.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 64 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.67 - -0.21 = -0.47 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.21) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.67) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 41.5% Win Probability (After): 40.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 2:47 | |
(4th & 10 at ARK 36) Timeout PENN ST, clock 02:47 - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 0.00 | 39.7% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.67 - -0.67 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.67) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.67) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 39.7% Win Probability (After): 39.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 2:47 | |
(4th & 10 at ARK 36) ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 31 - PSU 10, ARK 7 | -0.39 | 39.8% | -2.8% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 69 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.11 - -0.72 = -0.39 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.72) Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.11) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 39.8% Win Probability (After): 37.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 2:36 | |
(4th & 15 at ARK 31) Reid Bauer punt for 58 yds , Parker Washington returns for 5 yds to the PnSt 16 - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 0.36 | 37.1% | 4.6% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 84 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.68 - -1.04 = 0.36 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.04) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.68) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 37.1% Win Probability (After): 41.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 2:16 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 16) Devyn Ford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Contact (15 Yards) to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 0.89 | 58.2% | 2.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 65 Started Drive at: PSU 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.57 - 0.81 = 0.89 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.68) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.57) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.2% Win Probability (After): 60.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 2:10 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 35) Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 32 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 1.48 | 60.8% | 5.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 33 Started Drive at: PSU 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.02 - 1.54 = 1.48 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.54) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.02) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.8% Win Probability (After): 66.2% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:38 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 33) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Theo Johnson - PSU 10, ARK 7 | -0.16 | 66.3% | -1.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33 Started Drive at: PSU 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 2.79 = -0.16 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.79) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.63) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 66.3% Win Probability (After): 65.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:30 | |
(2nd & 10 at ARK 33) Sean Clifford pass complete to Tyler Warren for no gain to the Ark 33 - PSU 10, ARK 7 | -0.47 | 65.5% | -2.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33 Started Drive at: PSU 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 2.41 = -0.47 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.41) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.93) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.5% Win Probability (After): 63.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:03 | |
(3rd & 10 at ARK 33) PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 38 - PSU 10, ARK 7 | -1.15 | 64.0% | -4.7% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 38 Started Drive at: PSU 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - 2.05 = -1.15 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.05) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.90) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.0% Win Probability (After): 59.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:53 | |
(3rd & 15 at ARK 38) Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the Ark 36 - PSU 10, ARK 7 | -0.48 | 61.3% | -4.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 36 Started Drive at: PSU 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - 1.06 = -0.48 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.06) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.58) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 53 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.3% Win Probability (After): 56.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:53 | |
(4th & 13 at ARK 36) Timeout ARKANSAS, clock 00:53 - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 0.00 | 57.1% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36 Started Drive at: PSU 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - 0.58 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.58) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.58) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 53 yards Win Probability (Before): 57.1% Win Probability (After): 57.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 0:45 | |
(4th & 13 at ARK 36) Jordan Stout pass incomplete - PSU 10, ARK 7 | -1.45 | 59.3% | -6.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 64 Started Drive at: PSU 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.85 - 0.60 = -1.45 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.60) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.15) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 53 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.3% Win Probability (After): 53.2% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 0:40 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 36) KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 9 yds to the Ark 45 - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 0.58 | 46.2% | 2.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 55 Started Drive at: ARK 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.23 - 0.65 = 0.58 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.35) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.77) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.2% Win Probability (After): 48.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:39 | |
(2nd & 1 at ARK 45) Timeout ARKANSAS, clock 00:39 - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 0.00 | 48.4% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55 Started Drive at: ARK 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.23 - 1.23 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.77) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.77) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 48.4% Win Probability (After): 48.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:35 | |
(2nd & 1 at ARK 45) Raheim Sanders run for 12 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 0.38 | 48.0% | 2.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 43 Started Drive at: ARK 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.54 - 1.16 = 0.38 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.84) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.46) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards Win Probability (Before): 48.0% Win Probability (After): 50.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:28 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 43) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Trey Knox for 5 yds to the PnSt 38 - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 0.81 | 49.8% | 2.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 38 Started Drive at: ARK 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.09 - 1.29 = 0.81 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.71) Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.91) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.8% Win Probability (After): 52.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:21 | |
(2nd & 5 at PSU 38) Warren Thompson pass intercepted Ji'Ayir Brown return for no gain to the PnSt 18 - PSU 10, ARK 7 | -1.93 | 52.7% | -13.1% |
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Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 82 Started Drive at: ARK 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.26 - 1.67 = -1.93 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.33) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.26) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.7% Win Probability (After): 39.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:15 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 18) TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 15 - PSU 10, ARK 7 | -0.11 | 60.1% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 85 Started Drive at: PSU 18 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.09 - 0.11 = -0.11 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.11) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, -3 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.1% Win Probability (After): 59.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q3 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at ARK 35) Jordan Stout kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 0.00 | 45.5% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 0.44 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.56) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.56) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 45.5% Win Probability (After): 45.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:40 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 25) KJ Jefferson run for 10 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 0.84 | 47.3% | 1.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 0.63 = 0.84 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.37) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.53) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards Win Probability (Before): 47.3% Win Probability (After): 48.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:31 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 35) Dominique Johnson run for 2 yds to the Ark 37 - PSU 10, ARK 7 | -0.62 | 49.9% | -1.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 63 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 1.63 = -0.62 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.37) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.9% Win Probability (After): 48.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 13:59 | |
(2nd & 8 at ARK 37) KJ Jefferson run for 14 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 1.68 | 49.0% | 4.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 49 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.75 - 1.07 = 1.68 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.93) Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.25) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.0% Win Probability (After): 53.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 13:35 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 49) Dominique Johnson run for 5 yds to the PnSt 44 - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 0.11 | 52.9% | 1.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 44 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.84 - 2.73 = 0.11 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.27) Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.9% Win Probability (After): 54.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 13:30 | |
(2nd & 5 at PSU 44) KJ Jefferson run for 14 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 1.13 | 53.6% | 4.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 30 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.89 - 2.76 = 1.13 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.24) Score Difference (End): -3 (0.89) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.6% Win Probability (After): 57.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 13:00 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 30) Dominique Johnson run for 22 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 7 | 1.34 | 58.1% | 5.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 8 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.24 - 3.89 = 1.34 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.89) Score Difference (End): -3 (2.24) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 67 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.1% Win Probability (After): 63.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:42 | |
(1st & Goal at PSU 8) KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) - PSU 10, ARK 14 | 1.72 | 61.4% | 7.3% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99 Started Drive at: ARK 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.28 = 1.72 Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.28) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 14 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.4% Win Probability (After): 68.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:42 | |
(Kickoff at PSU 35) Cam Little kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PSU 10, ARK 14 | 0.00 | 35.8% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 0.63 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.37) Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.37) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 14 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 35.8% Win Probability (After): 35.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:40 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 25) Sean Clifford run for 3 yds to the PnSt 28 - PSU 10, ARK 14 | -0.44 | 35.8% | -1.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 72 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - 0.63 = -0.44 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.37) Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.81) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 35.8% Win Probability (After): 34.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:05 | |
(2nd & 7 at PSU 28) Sean Clifford run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 27 - PSU 10, ARK 14 | -1.08 | 34.6% | -2.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 73 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.90 - 0.19 = -1.08 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.81) Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.90) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 34.6% Win Probability (After): 32.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 11:12 | |
(3rd & 8 at PSU 27) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Keyvone Lee - PSU 10, ARK 14 | -1.28 | 31.8% | -2.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.22 - -0.94 = -1.28 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.94) Score Difference (End): -4 (-6.22) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.8% Win Probability (After): 29.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 11:01 | |
(4th & 8 at PSU 27) Jordan Stout punt for 44 yds , Nathan Parodi returns for 8 yds to the Ark 37 - PSU 10, ARK 14 | -0.05 | 28.7% | 1.2% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 63 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.32 - -2.28 = -0.05 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-6.28) Score Difference (End): 4 (6.32) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 10, ARK 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.7% Win Probability (After): 29.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 10:55 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 37) KJ Jefferson run for 19 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 14 | 1.13 | 70.0% | 2.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 44 Started Drive at: ARK 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.48 - 2.35 = 1.13 Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.35) Score Difference (End): 4 (7.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 14 Drive Summary: 1 play, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 70.0% Win Probability (After): 72.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:35 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 44) KJ Jefferson pass complete to De'Vion Warren for 17 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 14 | 0.91 | 72.1% | 3.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 27 Started Drive at: ARK 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.42 - 3.51 = 0.91 Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.51) Score Difference (End): 4 (8.42) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 14 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 36 yards Win Probability (Before): 72.1% Win Probability (After): 75.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:20 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 27) Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the PnSt 23 - PSU 10, ARK 14 | -0.14 | 77.0% | -1.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 23 Started Drive at: ARK 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 4.48 = -0.14 Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.48) Score Difference (End): 4 (8.34) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 14 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.0% Win Probability (After): 76.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:05 | |
(2nd & 6 at PSU 23) Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the PnSt 21 - PSU 10, ARK 14 | -0.24 | 73.8% | 1.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 21 Started Drive at: ARK 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.09 - 4.33 = -0.24 Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.33) Score Difference (End): 4 (8.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 14 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 73.8% Win Probability (After): 75.2% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 9:30 | |
(3rd & 4 at PSU 21) KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 18 - PSU 10, ARK 14 | -0.32 | 75.4% | -4.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 18 Started Drive at: ARK 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.71 - 4.03 = -0.32 Score Difference (Before): 4 (8.03) Score Difference (End): 4 (7.71) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 14 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.4% Win Probability (After): 71.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 8:52 | |
(4th & 1 at PSU 18) Dominique Johnson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 14 | 1.46 | 74.9% | 3.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 17 Started Drive at: ARK 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.09 - 3.64 = 1.46 Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.64) Score Difference (End): 4 (9.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 14 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 46 yards Win Probability (Before): 74.9% Win Probability (After): 78.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 8:40 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 17) De'Vion Warren run for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 24 - PSU 10, ARK 14 | -1.75 | 78.4% | -5.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 24 Started Drive at: ARK 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.37 - 5.12 = -1.75 Score Difference (Before): 4 (9.12) Score Difference (End): 4 (7.37) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 14 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.4% Win Probability (After): 72.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 7:58 | |
(2nd & 17 at PSU 24) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Dominique Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 27 - PSU 10, ARK 14 | -0.81 | 74.5% | -4.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 27 Started Drive at: ARK 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.50 - 3.30 = -0.81 Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.30) Score Difference (End): 4 (6.50) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 14 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 36 yards Win Probability (Before): 74.5% Win Probability (After): 70.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 7:25 | |
(3rd & 20 at PSU 27) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyson Morris for 9 yds to the PnSt 18 - PSU 10, ARK 14 | -0.15 | 70.5% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 18 Started Drive at: ARK 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.34 - 2.48 = -0.15 Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.48) Score Difference (End): 4 (6.34) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 14 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 70.5% Win Probability (After): 70.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (14) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 6:29 | |
(4th & 11 at PSU 18) Cam Little 37 Yd Field Goal - PSU 10, ARK 17 | 0.62 | 70.3% | 11.8% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18 Started Drive at: ARK 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.38 = 0.62 Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.38) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 17 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 70.3% Win Probability (After): 82.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 14 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 6:29 | |
(Kickoff at PSU 35) Cam Little kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PSU 10, ARK 17 | 0.00 | 21.4% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - -0.02 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.02) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.02) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 17 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.4% Win Probability (After): 21.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 6:22 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 25) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 5 yds to the PnSt 30 - PSU 10, ARK 17 | 0.16 | 21.4% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.14 - -0.02 = 0.16 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.02) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 17 Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.4% Win Probability (After): 21.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 6:15 | |
(2nd & 5 at PSU 30) Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 31 - PSU 10, ARK 17 | -0.55 | 21.3% | -1.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 69 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.43 - 0.13 = -0.55 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.87) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 17 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.3% Win Probability (After): 19.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 5:50 | |
(3rd & 4 at PSU 31) Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 5 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 17 | 1.43 | 19.2% | 5.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 64 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.00 - -0.44 = 1.43 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.44) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 17 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.2% Win Probability (After): 24.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 5:10 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 36) Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the PnSt 37 - PSU 10, ARK 17 | -0.58 | 22.8% | -1.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 63 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.41 - 0.98 = -0.58 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.02) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.59) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 17 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.8% Win Probability (After): 21.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 4:35 | |
(2nd & 9 at PSU 37) Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for no gain to the PnSt 37 - PSU 10, ARK 17 | -0.80 | 21.9% | -2.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.39 - 0.41 = -0.80 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.59) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 17 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.9% Win Probability (After): 19.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 3:52 | |
(3rd & 9 at PSU 37) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Cam Sullivan-Brown - PSU 10, ARK 17 | -1.43 | 19.7% | -2.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.82 - -0.39 = -1.43 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.39) Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.82) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 17 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.7% Win Probability (After): 17.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 3:46 | |
(4th & 9 at PSU 37) Jordan Stout punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 21 - PSU 10, ARK 17 | -0.21 | 16.8% | 1.4% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 79 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.03 - -1.82 = -0.21 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.82) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.03) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 10, ARK 17 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 16.8% Win Probability (After): 18.2% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 3:40 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 21) KJ Jefferson run for 34 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 17 | 1.73 | 81.6% | 6.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 45 Started Drive at: ARK 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.77 - 2.04 = 1.73 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.04) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.77) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 17 Drive Summary: 1 play, 34 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.6% Win Probability (After): 88.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 3:09 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 45) Raheim Sanders run for 12 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 17 | 0.69 | 88.5% | 0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 33 Started Drive at: ARK 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 3.80 = 0.69 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.80) Score Difference (End): 7 (11.49) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 17 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 46 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.5% Win Probability (After): 89.2% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 2:28 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 33) Malik Hornsby run for 32 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 17 | 2.12 | 89.3% | 2.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 1 Started Drive at: ARK 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.61 - 4.49 = 2.12 Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.49) Score Difference (End): 7 (13.61) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 17 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 78 yards Win Probability (Before): 89.3% Win Probability (After): 91.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 2:08 | |
(1st & Goal at PSU 1) Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 0.39 | 91.9% | 2.3% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: ARK 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.61 = 0.39 Score Difference (Before): 7 (13.61) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 79 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.9% Win Probability (After): 94.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 17 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 2:08 | |
(Kickoff at PSU 35) Cam Little kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 0.00 | 7.0% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.50 - -0.50 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.50) Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.50) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.0% Win Probability (After): 7.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 2:01 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 25) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Malick Meiga - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -0.64 | 7.1% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.09 - -0.45 = -0.64 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.45) Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.1% Win Probability (After): 6.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 1:30 | |
(2nd & 10 at PSU 25) Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -0.86 | 6.6% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.86 - -1.00 = -0.86 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.00) Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 6.6% Win Probability (After): 6.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 1:13 | |
(3rd & 8 at PSU 27) Timeout PENN ST, clock 01:13 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 0.00 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.86 - -1.86 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.86) Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 6.3% Win Probability (After): 6.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 1:00 | |
(3rd & 8 at PSU 27) Sean Clifford run for 14 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 2.80 | 5.2% | 1.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 59 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - -1.82 = 2.80 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.82) Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.01) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards Win Probability (Before): 5.2% Win Probability (After): 6.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:45 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 41) Sean Clifford run for 13 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 1.10 | 7.0% | 0.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 46 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.09 - 0.99 = 1.10 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.01) Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.91) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.0% Win Probability (After): 7.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:34 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 46) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -0.69 | 7.5% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.40 - 2.09 = -0.69 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.91) Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.60) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.5% Win Probability (After): 6.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:00 | |
(2nd & 10 at ARK 46) Parker Washington run for 6 yds to the Ark 40 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 0.14 | 6.9% | 0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 40 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.52 - 1.38 = 0.14 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.62) Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 35 yards Win Probability (Before): 6.9% Win Probability (After): 7.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 15:00 | |
(3rd & 4 at ARK 40) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Malick Meiga - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -1.99 | 7.1% | -1.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.47 - 1.52 = -1.99 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.48) Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 35 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.1% Win Probability (After): 5.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 14:55 | |
(4th & 4 at ARK 40) Sean Clifford run for 7 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 3.73 | 5.8% | 2.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 33 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.26 - -0.47 = 3.73 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.47) Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.74) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 5.8% Win Probability (After): 7.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 14:35 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 33) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Cam Sullivan-Brown - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -0.67 | 7.9% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 3.26 = -0.67 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.74) Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.42) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.9% Win Probability (After): 7.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 14:11 | |
(2nd & 10 at ARK 33) Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Cam Sullivan-Brown - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -1.04 | 7.4% | -0.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.49 - 2.53 = -1.04 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.47) Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.51) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.4% Win Probability (After): 6.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 14:00 | |
(3rd & 10 at ARK 33) Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 13 yds to the Ark 20 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 2.58 | 6.7% | 2.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 20 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.05 - 1.47 = 2.58 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.53) Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.95) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 6.7% Win Probability (After): 8.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:29 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 20) Sean Clifford run for 5 yds to the Ark 15 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 0.34 | 8.9% | 0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 15 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.47 - 4.14 = 0.34 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.86) Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.53) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 60 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.9% Win Probability (After): 9.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:20 | |
(2nd & 5 at ARK 15) Keyvone Lee run for 5 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 0.30 | 9.0% | 1.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 10 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.81 - 4.51 = 0.30 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.49) Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.19) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.0% Win Probability (After): 10.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 12:39 | |
(1st & Goal at ARK 10) Sean Clifford pass intercepted, touchback. Joe Foucha return for no gain - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -7.12 | 9.2% | -5.7% |
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Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 80 Started Drive at: PSU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.33 - 4.80 = -7.12 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.20) Score Difference (End): 14 (16.33) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 14 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.2% Win Probability (After): 3.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 12:30 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 20) KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Ark 23 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -0.37 | 96.9% | -0.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 77 Started Drive at: ARK 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 2.24 = -0.37 Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.24) Score Difference (End): 14 (15.87) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 96.9% Win Probability (After): 96.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 12:15 | |
(2nd & 7 at ARK 23) KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to AJ Green - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -1.08 | 96.7% | -1.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77 Started Drive at: ARK 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.71 - 1.79 = -1.08 Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.79) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.71) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 96.7% Win Probability (After): 95.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 12:05 | |
(3rd & 7 at ARK 23) Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the Ark 29 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -0.61 | 96.0% | -0.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 71 Started Drive at: ARK 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.16 - 0.77 = -0.61 Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.77) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 96.0% Win Probability (After): 95.2% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 11:50 | |
(4th & 1 at ARK 29) Sanders, Raheim rush for 4 yards to the ARKANSAS33, PENALTY PENNST substitution infraction 5 yards to the ARKANSAS34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS. - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 2.86 | 95.8% | 1.3% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 66 Started Drive at: ARK 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.04 - 0.18 = 2.86 Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.18) Score Difference (End): 14 (17.04) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 95.8% Win Probability (After): 97.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 11:30 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 34) Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the Ark 39 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -0.08 | 97.5% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 61 Started Drive at: ARK 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 3.00 = -0.08 Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.00) Score Difference (End): 14 (16.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 97.5% Win Probability (After): 97.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 11:00 | |
(2nd & 5 at ARK 39) Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 0.58 | 97.9% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 55 Started Drive at: ARK 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 2.87 = 0.58 Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.87) Score Difference (End): 14 (17.45) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 97.9% Win Probability (After): 97.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 10:08 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 45) Dominique Johnson run for 6 yds to the PnSt 49 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 0.23 | 98.6% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 49 Started Drive at: ARK 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.54 - 3.31 = 0.23 Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.31) Score Difference (End): 14 (17.54) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 98.6% Win Probability (After): 98.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 9:45 | |
(2nd & 4 at PSU 49) KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line KJ Jefferson fumbled, recovered by Ark - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -1.03 | 98.6% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 50 Started Drive at: ARK 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 3.43 = -1.03 Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.43) Score Difference (End): 14 (16.40) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 98.6% Win Probability (After): 98.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 9:10 | |
(3rd & 5 at 50) KJ Jefferson pass complete to Bryce Stephens for no gain to the 50 yard line - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -1.58 | 98.5% | -1.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50 Started Drive at: ARK 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.54 - 2.12 = -1.58 Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.12) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.54) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 98.5% Win Probability (After): 97.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 8:30 | |
(4th & 5 at 50) Reid Bauer punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Parker Washington at the PnSt 9 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 0.58 | 98.1% | -2.0% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 91 Started Drive at: ARK 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.28 = 0.58 Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.28) Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.86) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 98.1% Win Probability (After): 96.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 8:25 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 9) Noah Cain run for 6 yds to the PnSt 15 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 0.29 | 3.8% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 85 Started Drive at: PSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.65 - -0.94 = 0.29 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.94) Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.65) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 3.8% Win Probability (After): 3.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 8:00 | |
(2nd & 4 at PSU 15) Christian Veilleux pass complete to Parker Washington for 3 yds to the PnSt 18 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -0.48 | 3.7% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 82 Started Drive at: PSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.03 - -0.55 = -0.48 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.55) Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.03) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 3.7% Win Probability (After): 3.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 7:40 | |
(3rd & 1 at PSU 18) Christian Veilleux run for 13 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 1.41 | 2.9% | 1.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 69 Started Drive at: PSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - -0.86 = 1.41 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.86) Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.44) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.9% Win Probability (After): 4.2% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 7:15 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 31) Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 34 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -0.47 | 3.4% | 0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 66 Started Drive at: PSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.17 - 0.64 = -0.47 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.36) Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 3.4% Win Probability (After): 3.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 6:45 | |
(2nd & 7 at PSU 34) Christian Veilleux sacked by Joe Foucha for a loss of 10 yards to the PnSt 24 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -2.48 | 2.9% | -0.9% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 76 Started Drive at: PSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.87 - 0.62 = -2.48 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.38) Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.87) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.9% Win Probability (After): 2.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 6:02 | |
(3rd & 17 at PSU 24) Timeout PENN ST, clock 06:02 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 0.00 | 1.7% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76 Started Drive at: PSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.87 - -1.87 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.87) Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.87) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 1.7% Win Probability (After): 1.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 5:55 | |
(3rd & 17 at PSU 24) Christian Veilleux pass incomplete to Parker Washington - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -0.70 | 1.5% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76 Started Drive at: PSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.28 - -1.58 = -0.70 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.58) Score Difference (End): -14 (-16.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 1.5% Win Probability (After): 1.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 5:55 | |
(4th & 17 at PSU 24) Jordan Stout punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nathan Parodi at the Ark 36 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -0.09 | 1.3% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 64 Started Drive at: PSU 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.36 - -2.27 = -0.09 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-16.27) Score Difference (End): 14 (16.36) Change of Possession: 1 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 1.3% Win Probability (After): 0.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 5:50 | |
(1st & 10 at ARK 36) AJ Green run for 1 yd to the Ark 37 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -0.44 | 99.2% | -0.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 63 Started Drive at: ARK 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 2.26 = -0.44 Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.26) Score Difference (End): 14 (15.82) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.2% Win Probability (After): 98.9% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 5:05 | |
(2nd & 9 at ARK 37) AJ Green run for 4 yds to the Ark 41 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -0.54 | 99.3% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 59 Started Drive at: ARK 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.31 - 1.86 = -0.54 Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.86) Score Difference (End): 14 (15.31) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.3% Win Probability (After): 98.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 4:15 | |
(3rd & 5 at ARK 41) Malik Hornsby run for 24 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 2.58 | 99.3% | 0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 35 Started Drive at: ARK 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 1.21 = 2.58 Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.21) Score Difference (End): 14 (17.79) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.3% Win Probability (After): 99.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 3:39 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 35) ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 40 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -0.76 | 99.6% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 40 Started Drive at: ARK 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 3.39 = -0.76 Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.39) Score Difference (End): 14 (16.63) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.6% Win Probability (After): 99.5% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 3:35 | |
(1st & 15 at PSU 40) AJ Green run for 4 yds to the PnSt 36 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 0.02 | 99.6% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 36 Started Drive at: ARK 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.55 - 2.53 = 0.02 Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.53) Score Difference (End): 14 (16.55) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.6% Win Probability (After): 99.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 3:33 | |
(2nd & 11 at PSU 36) Timeout PENN ST, clock 03:33 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 0.00 | 99.6% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36 Started Drive at: ARK 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.55 - 2.55 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.55) Score Difference (End): 14 (16.55) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.6% Win Probability (After): 99.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 3:25 | |
(2nd & 11 at PSU 36) Malik Hornsby run for 18 yds to the PnSt 18 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 2.02 | 99.6% | 0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 18 Started Drive at: ARK 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.39 - 2.38 = 2.02 Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.38) Score Difference (End): 14 (18.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.6% Win Probability (After): 99.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 2:45 | |
(1st & 10 at PSU 18) Malik Hornsby run for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 25 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -1.50 | 99.7% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 25 Started Drive at: ARK 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 4.14 = -1.50 Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.14) Score Difference (End): 14 (16.63) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 44 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.7% Win Probability (After): 99.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 2:00 | |
(2nd & 17 at PSU 25) AJ Green run for 17 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST down - PSU 10, ARK 24 | 2.87 | 99.6% | 0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 8 Started Drive at: ARK 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.15 - 2.28 = 2.87 Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.28) Score Difference (End): 14 (19.15) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.6% Win Probability (After): 99.7% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 1:15 | |
(1st & Goal at PSU 8) ARKANSAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 13 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -0.95 | 99.7% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 13 Started Drive at: ARK 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.89 - 4.85 = -0.95 Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.85) Score Difference (End): 14 (17.89) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.7% Win Probability (After): 99.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 0:45 | |
(1st & Goal at PSU 13) TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 16 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -0.89 | 99.7% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 16 Started Drive at: ARK 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.90 - 3.78 = -0.89 Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.78) Score Difference (End): 14 (16.90) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 58 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.7% Win Probability (After): 99.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 0:32 | |
(2nd & Goal at PSU 16) TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 19 - PSU 10, ARK 24 | -1.13 | 99.6% | 0.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 19 Started Drive at: ARK 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 3.24 = -1.13 Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.24) Score Difference (End): 14 (16.11) Change of Possession: 0 Score: PSU 10, ARK 24 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.6% Win Probability (After): 100.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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