Oklahoma St 37 @ Notre Dame 35

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 5.08 | Odds: OKST -1, O/U 45.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 197 ESPN team id 87
Total Plays 111105
Total EPA 6.55-4.25
  Offensive EPA 9.590.43
  Special Teams EPA -1.90-5.03
  Penalty EPA -1.140
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 0.000.35
Production ESPN team id 197 ESPN team id 87
Scrimmage Plays 9589
  Yards 604562
  Yards/Play 6.366.31
  EPA 9.590.43
  EPA/Play 0.100.00
Passes 52 (55%)70 (79%)
  Yards 371509
  Yards/Play 7.137.27
  EPA 16.1814.62
  EPA/Play 0.310.21
Rushes 43 (45%)19 (21%)
  Yards 24452
  Yards/Play 5.672.74
  EPA -6.59-14.19
  EPA/Play -0.15-0.75
Rushing ESPN team id 197 ESPN team id 87
Scrimmage Plays 9589
Rushes 43 (45%)19 (21%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 1 (2%)0 (0%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 1 (100%)0 (0%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 7 (16%)4 (21%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 18 (42%)9 (47%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 20 (47%)7 (37%)
OL Line Yards 48.130
  Per Carry 1.121.58
Highlight Yards 98.56
  Per Rush Opportunity 4.920.86
Explosiveness ESPN team id 197 ESPN team id 87
Total Plays 111105
Scrimmage Plays 9589
Explosive Plays 6 (6%)6 (7%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 3 (6%)6 (9%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 3 (7%)0 (0%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -5.59-20.30
  EPA/Play -0.06-0.24
  When Passing 7.91-6.11
    EPA/Play 0.15-0.09
  When Rushing -13.50-14.19
    EPA/Play -0.34-0.75
Situational ESPN team id 197 ESPN team id 87
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 44 (46%)33 (37%)
  When Passing 26 (50%)31 (44%)
  When Rushing 18 (42%)2 (11%)
  On Standard Downs 37 (56%)20 (36%)
  On Passing Downs 7 (24%)13 (39%)
  On Early Downs 40 (50%)22 (32%)
  On Late Downs 4 (27%)11 (52%)
  During "Middle 8" 9 (60%)4 (50%)
Early Downs 8068
  First Downs Created 28 (35%)13 (19%)
  EPA 13.44-10.89
  EPA/Play 0.17-0.16
  Passes 40 (50%)52 (76%)
  Rushes 40 (50%)16 (24%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 23 (58%)20 (38%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 17 (43%)2 (13%)
"Middle 8" Plays 158
  EPA 13.344.99
  EPA/play 0.890.62
  Passes 11 (73%)5 (63%)
  Rushes 4 (27%)3 (38%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 8 (73%)4 (80%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 1 (25%)0 (0%)
Drives ESPN team id 197 ESPN team id 87
Total 1717
Avg Starting Field Position Own 28Own 23
Plays/Drive 7.356.83
Yards/Drive 49.1546.27
Available Yards % 68%60%
Defensive ESPN team id 197 ESPN team id 87
Scrimmage Plays 8995
Stop Rate 40%39%
Havoc Plays Created 15 (17%)10 (11%)
  Passing 11 (16%)3 (6%)
  Rushing 4 (21%)7 (16%)
TFLs Generated 58
  Passing 23
  Rushing 35
Sacks Generated 2 (3%)1 (2%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 10
Fumbles Forced 12
Turnovers ESPN team id 197 ESPN team id 87
Turnovers 22
  Fumbles 21
  Fumbles Lost 21
  Fumbles Recovered 00
  Interceptions 01
Turnover Margin 00
Expected Turnovers 1.51.7
Expected Turnover Margin 0.2-0.2
Turnover Luck (pts) -1.11.1
Special Teams ESPN team id 197 ESPN team id 87
Total Plays 16 16
Total EPA -1.9 -5.03
  Field Goal EPA 0.07 -2.18
  Punting EPA -0.15 -0.82
  Kickoff Return EPA -1.82 -2.04

Oklahoma State [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Spencer Sanders 34/51, 371 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 88.3 xQBR 7.13 0.31 16.18 50% 44.0%
Rush attempts
Spencer Sanders 16 carries, 136 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 8.50 0.28 4.48 62% -3.0%
LD Brown 3 carries, 27 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 0.39 1.16 33% 0.0%
Dominic Richardson 1 carry, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.04 -0.04 0% 0.0%
TEAM 2 carries, -7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -3.50 -0.53 -1.06 0% -6.0%
John Paul Richardson 1 carry, -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.00 -1.16 -1.16 0% -3.0%
Jaylen Warren 19 carries, 82 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.32 -0.19 -3.52 37% -6.0%
Brennan Presley 1 carry, 4 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 4.00 -6.43 -6.43 0% -16.0%
Pass targets
Tay Martin 10 catches (14 targets), 104 yds, 3 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.40 0.74 10.39 64% 36.0%
Brennan Presley 10 catches (15 targets), 137 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.70 0.35 5.20 53% 12.0%
John Paul Richardson 4 catches (5 targets), 42 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.50 0.49 2.46 60% 2.0%
Rashod Owens 1 catch (1 target), 25 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 25.00 2.28 2.28 100% 3.0%
Jaden Bray 1 catch (4 targets), 9 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 0.19 0.75 25% 3.0%
Bryson Green 1 catch (3 targets), 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 17.00 -0.08 -0.25 33% 1.0%
LD Brown 1 catch (1 target), 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.30 -0.30 0% 0.0%
Jaylen Warren 6 catches (7 targets), 34 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.67 -0.09 -0.63 43% -5.0%

Notre Dame [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Jack Coan 38/68, 509 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT, 2 Scks, 61.1 xQBR 7.27 0.21 14.62 44% 29.0%
Rush attempts
Braden Lenzy 1 carry, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.31 -0.31 0% 0.0%
Audric Estime 1 carry, -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.00 -1.16 -1.16 0% -2.0%
Chris Tyree 6 carries, 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.25 -1.47 17% -6.0%
Jack Coan 2 carries, 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.93 -1.86 0% -2.0%
Logan Diggs 9 carries, 29 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 3.22 -1.04 -9.39 11% -22.0%
Pass targets
Lorenzo Styles Jr. 8 catches (10 targets), 136 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 17.00 1.07 10.67 80% 26.0%
Chris Tyree 6 catches (7 targets), 115 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 19.17 1.25 8.78 71% 15.0%
Michael Mayer 7 catches (12 targets), 72 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.29 0.62 7.39 58% 23.0%
Kevin Austin Jr. 6 catches (12 targets), 105 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 17.50 0.27 3.18 50% 15.0%
Logan Diggs 4 catches (5 targets), 21 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.25 0.10 0.49 20% 2.0%
Deion Colzie 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.59 -1.59 0% -1.0%
Braden Lenzy 7 catches (15 targets), 60 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.57 -0.23 -3.39 27% -16.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 12:41 ESPN team id 197 (1st & Goal at ND 5) Brennan Presley run for 4 yds Brennan Presley fumbled, forced by Drew White, recovered by NDame Ramon Henderson - OKST 31, ND 28 -6.43 79.8% -16.5%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 80

Started Drive at: OKST 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.57 - 5.86 = -6.43

Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.86)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.43)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.8%

Win Probability (After): 63.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:13 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at OKST 44) Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the OKSt 44 Logan Diggs fumbled, forced by Kolby Harvell-Peel, recovered by OKSt Kolby Harvell-Peel , return for 3 yds to the OKSt 44 - OKST 31, ND 28 -5.72 46.9% -16.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 56

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.74 - 2.98 = -5.72

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.02)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.74)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.9%

Win Probability (After): 30.0%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:05 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 7 at ND 47) Chris Tyree 53 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick) - OKST 0, ND 14 5.03 70.3% 8.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.97 = 5.03

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.97)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.3%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:35 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 16 at OKST 30) Jack Coan pass intercepted Malcolm Rodriguez return for 11 yds to the OKSt 29 - OKST 34, ND 28 -4.30 31.2% -13.4%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 71

Started Drive at: ND 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.57 - 2.73 = -4.30

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.27)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.57)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.2%

Win Probability (After): 17.8%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:05 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at OKST 25) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 25 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - OKST 37, ND 35 3.88 5.2% 22.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.12 = 3.88

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-5.88)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 37, ND 35

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.2%

Win Probability (After): 27.2%

Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 28 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:07 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 14 at ND 15) Spencer Sanders run for 4 yds to the NDame 11 Spencer Sanders fumbled, forced by Isaiah Foskey, recovered by NDame Drew White - OKST 34, ND 28 -3.73 96.3% -14.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 89

Started Drive at: OKST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.28 - 3.45 = -3.73

Score Difference (Before): 6 (9.45)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.72)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.3%

Win Probability (After): 81.3%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:21 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 4 at OKST 29) Lorenzo Styles Jr. 29 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick) - OKST 0, ND 7 3.67 54.3% 9.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.33 = 3.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.33)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.3%

Win Probability (After): 63.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:18 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 10 at ND 40) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 29 yds to the NDame 11 for a 1ST down - OKST 34, ND 28 3.06 90.0% 4.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 11

Started Drive at: OKST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.89 - 1.83 = 3.06

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.83)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.0%

Win Probability (After): 94.5%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:23 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 9 at OKST 27) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 20 yds to the OKSt 7 for a 1ST down - OKST 7, ND 21 3.00 86.7% 4.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 7

Started Drive at: ND 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.23 - 2.23 = 3.00

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.23)

Score Difference (End): 14 (19.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.7%

Win Probability (After): 90.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:38 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 6 at ND 15) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr., broken up by Kolby Harvell-Peel - OKST 34, ND 28 -2.77 13.2% -10.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 15

Started Drive at: ND 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.18 - -1.40 = -2.77

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-7.40)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.18)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.2%

Win Probability (After): 2.7%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 1:05 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at OKST 25) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 25 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - OKST 37, ND 35 3.88 5.2% 22.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.12 = 3.88

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-5.88)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 37, ND 35

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.2%

Win Probability (After): 27.2%

Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 28 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:13 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at OKST 44) Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the OKSt 44 Logan Diggs fumbled, forced by Kolby Harvell-Peel, recovered by OKSt Kolby Harvell-Peel , return for 3 yds to the OKSt 44 - OKST 31, ND 28 -5.72 46.9% -16.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 56

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.74 - 2.98 = -5.72

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.02)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.74)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.9%

Win Probability (After): 30.0%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:41 ESPN team id 197 (1st & Goal at ND 5) Brennan Presley run for 4 yds Brennan Presley fumbled, forced by Drew White, recovered by NDame Ramon Henderson - OKST 31, ND 28 -6.43 79.8% -16.5%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 80

Started Drive at: OKST 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.57 - 5.86 = -6.43

Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.86)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.43)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.8%

Win Probability (After): 63.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:07 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 14 at ND 15) Spencer Sanders run for 4 yds to the NDame 11 Spencer Sanders fumbled, forced by Isaiah Foskey, recovered by NDame Drew White - OKST 34, ND 28 -3.73 96.3% -14.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 89

Started Drive at: OKST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.28 - 3.45 = -3.73

Score Difference (Before): 6 (9.45)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.72)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.3%

Win Probability (After): 81.3%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:35 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 16 at OKST 30) Jack Coan pass intercepted Malcolm Rodriguez return for 11 yds to the OKSt 29 - OKST 34, ND 28 -4.30 31.2% -13.4%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 71

Started Drive at: ND 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.57 - 2.73 = -4.30

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.27)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.57)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.2%

Win Probability (After): 17.8%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:02 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 43) TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 46 - OKST 37, ND 35 -0.86 99.1% -12.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 46

Started Drive at: ND 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 1.71 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.71)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 37, ND 35

Drive Summary: 1 play, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 86.5%

Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 28 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:06 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 17 at ND 21) Tanner Brown 38 Yd Field Goal - OKST 31, ND 28 0.79 54.9% 12.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: OKST 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.21 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.21)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.9%

Win Probability (After): 67.4%

Away Score: 28 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:43 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 10 at ND 37) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 19 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST down - OKST 31, ND 28 2.66 35.8% 11.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 44

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.03 - 0.37 = 2.66

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.63)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.8%

Win Probability (After): 47.6%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:52 ESPN team id 197 (1st & Goal at ND 5) Tay Martin 5 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Tanner Brown Kick) - OKST 21, ND 28 1.40 20.1% 11.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: OKST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.60 = 1.40

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-8.40)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 87 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.1%

Win Probability (After): 31.8%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:07 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 15 at ND 24) Tanner Brown 41 Yd Field Goal - OKST 34, ND 28 1.04 69.9% 11.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: OKST 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.96 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.96)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.9%

Win Probability (After): 81.2%

Away Score: 31 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 13:21 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 4 at OKST 29) Lorenzo Styles Jr. 29 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick) - OKST 0, ND 7 3.67 54.3% 9.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.33 = 3.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.33)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.3%

Win Probability (After): 63.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:05 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 7 at ND 47) Chris Tyree 53 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick) - OKST 0, ND 14 5.03 70.3% 8.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.97 = 5.03

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.97)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.3%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:46 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 6 at ND 9) Jaden Bray 9 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Tanner Brown Kick) - OKST 7, ND 14 2.39 27.9% 6.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: OKST 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.61 = 2.39

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.39)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.9%

Win Probability (After): 34.5%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:04 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 2 at OKST 16) Michael Mayer 16 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick) - OKST 7, ND 21 2.27 73.4% 7.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.73 = 2.27

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.73)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.4%

Win Probability (After): 80.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:16 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & Goal at OKST 7) Michael Mayer 7 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick) - OKST 7, ND 28 2.50 90.9% 6.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.50 = 2.50

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.50)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.9%

Win Probability (After): 97.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:37 ESPN team id 197 (1st & Goal at ND 9) Tay Martin 9 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Tanner Brown Kick) - OKST 14, ND 28 2.33 9.1% 6.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.67 = 2.33

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-16.33)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 14, ND 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.1%

Win Probability (After): 15.4%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:52 ESPN team id 197 (1st & Goal at ND 5) Tay Martin 5 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Tanner Brown Kick) - OKST 21, ND 28 1.40 20.1% 11.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: OKST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.60 = 1.40

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-8.40)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 87 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.1%

Win Probability (After): 31.8%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:47 ESPN team id 197 (1st & Goal at ND 8) Tay Martin 8 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Tanner Brown Kick) - OKST 28, ND 28 1.71 39.9% 9.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99

Started Drive at: OKST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.29 = 1.71

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.71)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 28, ND 28

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.9%

Win Probability (After): 49.5%

Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:06 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 17 at ND 21) Tanner Brown 38 Yd Field Goal - OKST 31, ND 28 0.79 54.9% 12.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: OKST 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.21 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.21)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.9%

Win Probability (After): 67.4%

Away Score: 28 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:07 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 15 at ND 24) Tanner Brown 41 Yd Field Goal - OKST 34, ND 28 1.04 69.9% 11.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: OKST 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.96 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.96)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.9%

Win Probability (After): 81.2%

Away Score: 31 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:16 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 3 at ND 8) Tanner Brown 25 yd FG GOOD - OKST 37, ND 28 0.37 94.5% 3.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8

Started Drive at: ND 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.63 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.63)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 37, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.5%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 34 (37) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:05 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at OKST 25) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 25 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - OKST 37, ND 35 3.88 5.2% 22.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.12 = 3.88

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-5.88)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 37, ND 35

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.2%

Win Probability (After): 27.2%

Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 28 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 87 (Kickoff at ND 35) Tanner Brown kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - OKST 0, ND 0 0.00 49.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.4%

Win Probability (After): 49.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:51 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 25) Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - OKST 0, ND 0 1.62 50.3% 4.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 50

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.70 - 1.08 = 1.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.3%

Win Probability (After): 55.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:23 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at 50) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 15 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST down - OKST 0, ND 0 1.15 54.5% 2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 35

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.98 - 2.83 = 1.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.83)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.5%

Win Probability (After): 56.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:56 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at OKST 35) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy, broken up by Jarrick Bernard-Converse - OKST 0, ND 0 -0.70 56.3% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.18 - 3.88 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.88)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.3%

Win Probability (After): 55.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:49 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at OKST 35) Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 6 yds to the OKSt 29 - OKST 0, ND 0 0.17 55.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 29

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.38 - 3.21 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.5%

Win Probability (After): 55.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:21 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 4 at OKST 29) Lorenzo Styles Jr. 29 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick) - OKST 0, ND 7 3.67 54.3% 9.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.33 = 3.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.33)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.3%

Win Probability (After): 63.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:21 ESPN team id 197 (Kickoff at OKST 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - OKST 0, ND 7 0.00 41.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.21 - -0.21 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.21)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.5%

Win Probability (After): 41.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:14 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 25) Spencer Sanders run for 14 yds to the OKSt 39 for a 1ST down - OKST 0, ND 7 1.17 40.0% 4.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 61

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.98 - -0.19 = 1.17

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.19)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.0%

Win Probability (After): 44.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:51 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 39) Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the OKSt 39 - OKST 0, ND 7 -0.63 40.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.36 - 0.99 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.01)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.7%

Win Probability (After): 40.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:20 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 10 at OKST 39) Spencer Sanders run for 3 yds to the OKSt 42 - OKST 0, ND 7 -0.53 38.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 58

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.17 - 0.36 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.64)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.5%

Win Probability (After): 38.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:44 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 7 at OKST 42) Spencer Sanders sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 11 yards to the OKSt 31 - OKST 0, ND 7 -2.20 35.9% -4.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 69

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.46 - -0.25 = -2.20

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.25)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.9%

Win Probability (After): 31.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:03 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 18 at OKST 31) Tom Hutton punt for 45 yds , Matt Salerno returns for 3 yds to the NDame 27 - OKST 0, ND 7 0.24 31.6% 1.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 73

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.36 - -2.60 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.60)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.36)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.6%

Win Probability (After): 33.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:57 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 27) Logan Diggs run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 24 - OKST 0, ND 7 -1.16 66.8% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 76

Started Drive at: ND 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.25 - 2.40 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.40)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.8%

Win Probability (After): 64.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:36 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 13 at ND 24) Jack Coan pass complete to Logan Diggs for 6 yds to the NDame 30 - OKST 0, ND 7 -0.36 64.9% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 70

Started Drive at: ND 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.96 - 1.32 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.32)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.9%

Win Probability (After): 64.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:08 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 7 at ND 30) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr., broken up by Christian Holmes - OKST 0, ND 7 -1.32 63.6% -2.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: ND 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.27 - 1.05 = -1.32

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.05)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.6%

Win Probability (After): 60.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:00 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 7 at ND 30) Jay Bramblett punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 17 - OKST 0, ND 7 0.79 60.6% 3.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 83

Started Drive at: ND 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - -0.26 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.74)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.52)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.6%

Win Probability (After): 63.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 9:54 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 17) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 3 yds to the OKSt 20 - OKST 0, ND 7 -0.71 36.4% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 80

Started Drive at: OKST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.99 - -0.28 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.28)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.4%

Win Probability (After): 35.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:38 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 7 at OKST 20) Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the OKSt 20 - OKST 0, ND 7 -0.95 36.2% -2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80

Started Drive at: OKST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.75 - -0.80 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.80)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.2%

Win Probability (After): 33.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:21 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 7 at OKST 20) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan Presley - OKST 0, ND 7 -1.14 34.8% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80

Started Drive at: OKST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.90 - -1.77 = -1.14

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.77)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.8%

Win Probability (After): 32.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:13 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 7 at OKST 20) Tom Hutton punt for 46 yds , Matt Salerno returns for no gain to the NDame 34 Matt Salerno fumbled, recovered by NDame Matt Salerno - OKST 0, ND 7 0.13 32.9% -3.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 66

Started Drive at: OKST 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.80 - -2.93 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.93)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.80)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.9%

Win Probability (After): 29.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 9:02 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 34) Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 10 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST down - OKST 0, ND 7 0.45 69.6% 3.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 56

Started Drive at: ND 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.25 - 2.80 = 0.45

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.80)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.6%

Win Probability (After): 72.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:39 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 44) NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Kevin Austin Jr.) to the NDame 39 - OKST 0, ND 7 -0.62 71.2% -0.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 61

Started Drive at: ND 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.63 - 3.26 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.26)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.2%

Win Probability (After): 70.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:28 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 15 at ND 39) NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Jarrett Patterson) to the NDame 34 - OKST 0, ND 7 -0.19 69.4% -1.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 66

Started Drive at: ND 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.42 - 2.62 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.62)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.4%

Win Probability (After): 68.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:18 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 20 at ND 34) Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 14 yds to the NDame 48 - OKST 0, ND 7 0.60 67.6% 3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 52

Started Drive at: ND 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.04 - 2.44 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.44)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.6%

Win Probability (After): 70.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:44 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 6 at ND 48) Chris Tyree run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 47 - OKST 0, ND 7 -1.09 71.7% -2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 53

Started Drive at: ND 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.90 - 2.99 = -1.09

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.99)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.7%

Win Probability (After): 68.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:05 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 7 at ND 47) Chris Tyree 53 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick) - OKST 0, ND 14 5.03 70.3% 8.9%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 1.97 = 5.03

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.97)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.3%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:05 ESPN team id 197 (Kickoff at OKST 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 60 yds , Brennan Presley return for 17 yds to the OKSt 22 - OKST 0, ND 14 -1.20 22.6% -0.6%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 78

Started Drive at: OKST 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.70 - -0.49 = -1.20

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.49)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.6%

Win Probability (After): 22.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:55 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 22) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to John Paul Richardson - OKST 0, ND 14 -0.67 22.5% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: OKST 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.25 - -0.58 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.58)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.5%

Win Probability (After): 21.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:51 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 10 at OKST 22) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jaylen Warren - OKST 0, ND 14 -0.88 21.7% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: OKST 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.08 - -1.20 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.20)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-16.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.7%

Win Probability (After): 20.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:43 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 10 at OKST 22) Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 2 yds to the OKSt 24 - OKST 0, ND 14 -1.02 20.5% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 76

Started Drive at: OKST 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.11 - -2.09 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-16.09)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-17.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.5%

Win Probability (After): 19.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:10 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 8 at OKST 24) Tom Hutton punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 29 - OKST 0, ND 14 0.33 18.6% 0.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 71

Started Drive at: OKST 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.76 - -3.09 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-17.09)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.76)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 0, ND 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.6%

Win Probability (After): 19.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 6:04 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 29) Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 5 yds to the NDame 34 - OKST 0, ND 14 -0.01 81.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 66

Started Drive at: ND 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 2.82 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.82)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.2%

Win Probability (After): 81.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:35 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 5 at ND 34) Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the NDame 37 - OKST 0, ND 14 -0.41 80.9% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 63

Started Drive at: ND 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.42 - 2.83 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.83)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.9%

Win Probability (After): 81.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:56 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 2 at ND 37) Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the NDame 38 - OKST 0, ND 14 -1.35 80.7% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 62

Started Drive at: ND 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 2.39 = -1.35

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.39)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.7%

Win Probability (After): 79.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:15 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 1 at ND 38) Jay Bramblett punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 18 - OKST 0, ND 14 -0.13 78.8% -0.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 82

Started Drive at: ND 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - 0.95 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.95)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.82)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 0, ND 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.8%

Win Probability (After): 77.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:04 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 18) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 13 yds to the OKSt 31 for a 1ST down - OKST 0, ND 14 1.02 22.1% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 69

Started Drive at: OKST 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - -0.82 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.82)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.1%

Win Probability (After): 23.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:42 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 31) LD Brown run for 2 yds to the OKSt 33 - OKST 0, ND 14 -0.70 23.2% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 67

Started Drive at: OKST 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.49 - 0.21 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.79)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.2%

Win Probability (After): 22.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:26 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 8 at OKST 33) LD Brown run for 22 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST down - OKST 0, ND 14 2.48 22.5% 3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 45

Started Drive at: OKST 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - -0.47 = 2.48

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.47)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.5%

Win Probability (After): 25.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:12 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 45) Spencer Sanders pass complete to LD Brown for 3 yds to the NDame 42 - OKST 0, ND 14 -0.30 25.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 42

Started Drive at: OKST 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.68 - 1.98 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.02)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.6%

Win Probability (After): 25.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:48 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 7 at ND 42) Jaylen Warren run for 13 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST down - OKST 0, ND 14 1.72 25.1% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 29

Started Drive at: OKST 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.38 - 1.66 = 1.72

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.34)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.1%

Win Probability (After): 27.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:30 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 29) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 16 yds to the NDame 13 for a 1ST down - OKST 0, ND 14 1.26 26.9% 1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 13

Started Drive at: OKST 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.65 - 3.39 = 1.26

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.61)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 28.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:15 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 13) Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the NDame 9 - OKST 0, ND 14 -0.09 28.0% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 9

Started Drive at: OKST 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.58 - 4.67 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.33)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 0, ND 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.0%

Win Probability (After): 28.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:46 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 6 at ND 9) Jaden Bray 9 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Tanner Brown Kick) - OKST 7, ND 14 2.39 27.9% 6.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: OKST 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.61 = 2.39

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.39)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.9%

Win Probability (After): 34.5%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:46 ESPN team id 87 (Kickoff at ND 35) Tanner Brown kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - OKST 7, ND 14 0.00 68.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.20 - 2.20 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.20)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.9%

Win Probability (After): 68.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:40 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 25) Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the NDame 26 - OKST 7, ND 14 -0.51 68.9% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.71 - 2.22 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.22)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.9%

Win Probability (After): 68.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:07 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 9 at ND 26) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy - OKST 7, ND 14 -0.98 68.3% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.75 - 1.73 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.73)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.3%

Win Probability (After): 67.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:03 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 9 at ND 26) Jack Coan sacked by Brock Martin for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 22 - OKST 7, ND 14 -1.64 67.0% -3.9%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 78

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.89 - 0.75 = -1.64

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.75)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.0%

Win Probability (After): 63.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:24 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 13 at ND 22) Jay Bramblett punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 35 - OKST 7, ND 14 -0.27 63.1% 3.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 65

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.16 - -0.88 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.12)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.84)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 7, ND 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.1%

Win Probability (After): 66.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:18 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 35) Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the OKSt 36 - OKST 7, ND 14 -0.60 33.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 64

Started Drive at: OKST 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 1.16 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.84)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.5%

Win Probability (After): 33.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:03 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 9 at OKST 36) Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the OKSt 37 - OKST 7, ND 14 -0.73 33.6% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 63

Started Drive at: OKST 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.18 - 0.55 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.45)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.6%

Win Probability (After): 32.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:56 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 8 at OKST 37) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan Presley - OKST 7, ND 14 -1.45 32.0% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: OKST 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.62 - -0.16 = -1.45

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.16)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.0%

Win Probability (After): 29.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:47 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 8 at OKST 37) Tom Hutton punt for 46 yds , Matt Salerno returns for 5 yds to the NDame 22 - OKST 7, ND 14 -0.53 30.1% 1.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 78

Started Drive at: OKST 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.10 - -1.57 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.57)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.10)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 7, ND 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.1%

Win Probability (After): 31.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:40 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 22) Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 5 yds to the NDame 27 - OKST 7, ND 14 -0.02 69.2% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 73

Started Drive at: ND 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 2.10 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.10)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.2%

Win Probability (After): 68.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:13 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 5 at ND 27) Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 14 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST down - OKST 7, ND 14 1.11 69.7% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 59

Started Drive at: ND 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 2.00 = 1.11

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.00)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.7%

Win Probability (After): 71.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:50 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 41) Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 7 yds to the NDame 48 - OKST 7, ND 14 0.27 71.9% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 52

Started Drive at: ND 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.30 - 3.04 = 0.27

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.04)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.9%

Win Probability (After): 72.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:27 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 3 at ND 48) Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 11 yds to the OKSt 41 for a 1ST down - OKST 7, ND 14 0.61 72.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 41

Started Drive at: ND 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.97 - 3.37 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.37)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.3%

Win Probability (After): 72.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:05 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at OKST 41) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. - OKST 7, ND 14 -0.55 72.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41

Started Drive at: ND 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.43 - 3.98 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.98)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.4%

Win Probability (After): 72.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:58 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at OKST 41) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy - OKST 7, ND 14 -0.85 71.9% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41

Started Drive at: ND 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 3.43 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.43)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.9%

Win Probability (After): 71.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:50 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 10 at OKST 41) Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 17 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST down - OKST 7, ND 14 2.22 71.4% 2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 24

Started Drive at: ND 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.75 - 2.53 = 2.22

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.53)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.4%

Win Probability (After): 73.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:20 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at OKST 24) Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 5 yds to the OKSt 19 - OKST 7, ND 14 0.13 73.4% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 19

Started Drive at: ND 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.86 - 4.74 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.74)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.4%

Win Probability (After): 74.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:45 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 5 at OKST 19) Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the OKSt 16 - OKST 7, ND 14 -0.04 73.9% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 16

Started Drive at: ND 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.77 - 4.81 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.81)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.9%

Win Probability (After): 73.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:04 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 2 at OKST 16) Michael Mayer 16 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick) - OKST 7, ND 21 2.27 73.4% 7.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.73 = 2.27

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.73)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.4%

Win Probability (After): 80.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:04 ESPN team id 197 (Kickoff at OKST 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - OKST 7, ND 21 0.00 21.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.36 - -0.36 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.36)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.1%

Win Probability (After): 21.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:58 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 25) Spencer Sanders run for 6 yds to the OKSt 31 - OKST 7, ND 21 0.33 20.9% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.00 - -0.33 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.33)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.9%

Win Probability (After): 21.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:34 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 4 at OKST 31) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 6 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST down - OKST 7, ND 21 0.62 21.3% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 63

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.81 - 0.19 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.81)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.3%

Win Probability (After): 22.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:21 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 37) Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 20 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST down - OKST 7, ND 21 1.49 22.4% 1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 43

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.49 - 1.00 = 1.49

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.00)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.4%

Win Probability (After): 24.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:12 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 43) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay Martin - OKST 7, ND 21 -0.62 23.9% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 43

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.91 - 2.53 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.47)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.9%

Win Probability (After): 23.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:04 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 10 at ND 43) Jaylen Warren run for 15 yds to the NDame 28 for a 1ST down - OKST 7, ND 21 1.67 23.3% 3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 28

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.60 - 1.92 = 1.67

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.08)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.3%

Win Probability (After): 26.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:51 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 28) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jaden Bray - OKST 7, ND 21 -0.62 26.5% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 28

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.95 - 3.57 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.43)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.5%

Win Probability (After): 25.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:46 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 10 at ND 28) Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 30 - OKST 7, ND 21 -2.11 25.0% -4.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 30

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.81 - 2.92 = -2.11

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.08)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.0%

Win Probability (After): 20.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:16 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 12 at ND 30) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Bryson Green - OKST 7, ND 21 -1.13 19.9% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.31 - 0.82 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.18)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.9%

Win Probability (After): 18.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:11 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 12 at ND 30) Tanner Brown 48 yd FG MISSED - OKST 7, ND 21 -2.13 17.9% -0.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 70

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.40 - -0.27 = -2.13

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.27)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.40)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.9%

Win Probability (After): 17.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:04 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 30) Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 33 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST down - OKST 7, ND 21 1.70 82.3% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 37

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.06 - 2.36 = 1.70

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.36)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.3%

Win Probability (After): 83.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:35 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at OKST 37) Jack Coan pass incomplete - OKST 7, ND 21 -0.42 83.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 37

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.51 - 3.93 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.93)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.3%

Win Probability (After): 83.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:28 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at OKST 37) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 9 yds to the OKSt 28 - OKST 7, ND 21 0.82 83.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 28

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.19 - 3.36 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.36)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.2%

Win Probability (After): 83.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:54 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 1 at OKST 28) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 4 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST down - OKST 7, ND 21 0.50 83.7% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 24

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.58 - 4.08 = 0.50

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.08)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.7%

Win Probability (After): 84.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:33 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at OKST 24) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr. - OKST 7, ND 21 -0.55 84.8% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.95 - 4.50 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.50)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.8%

Win Probability (After): 84.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:26 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at OKST 24) Audric Estime run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 25 - OKST 7, ND 21 -1.16 84.6% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 25

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 3.97 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.97)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.6%

Win Probability (After): 83.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:50 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 11 at OKST 25) Jack Coan run for 2 yds to the OKSt 23 - OKST 7, ND 21 -0.73 83.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 23

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 2.90 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.90)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.3%

Win Probability (After): 83.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:41 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 9 at OKST 23) Jonathan Doerer 41 yd FG MISSED - OKST 7, ND 21 -2.18 83.1% -2.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 77

Started Drive at: ND 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.00 - 2.18 = -2.18

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.18)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.1%

Win Probability (After): 81.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 6:35 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 23) Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the OKSt 29 - OKST 7, ND 21 0.25 18.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 71

Started Drive at: OKST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.32 - 0.07 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.93)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.9%

Win Probability (After): 18.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:09 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 4 at OKST 29) Spencer Sanders run for 11 yds to the OKSt 40 for a 1ST down - OKST 7, ND 21 1.21 18.9% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 60

Started Drive at: OKST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.42 - 0.21 = 1.21

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.79)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.9%

Win Probability (After): 19.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:58 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 40) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay Martin - OKST 7, ND 21 -0.63 19.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: OKST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.78 - 1.42 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.58)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.5%

Win Probability (After): 19.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:53 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 10 at OKST 40) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay Martin - OKST 7, ND 21 -0.69 19.1% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: OKST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.18 - 0.87 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.13)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.1%

Win Probability (After): 17.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:49 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 10 at OKST 40) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan Presley - OKST 7, ND 21 -1.06 17.9% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: OKST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.04 - 0.02 = -1.06

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.98)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.9%

Win Probability (After): 16.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:41 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 10 at OKST 40) Tom Hutton punt for 45 yds , Matt Salerno returns for 1 yd to the NDame 16 - OKST 7, ND 21 0.11 16.6% -0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 84

Started Drive at: OKST 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.09 - -1.19 = 0.11

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.19)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.09)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.6%

Win Probability (After): 16.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 5:35 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 16) Chris Tyree run for 6 yds to the NDame 22 - OKST 7, ND 21 -0.06 84.2% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 78

Started Drive at: ND 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.16 - 1.22 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.22)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.2%

Win Probability (After): 83.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:03 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 4 at ND 22) Chris Tyree run for 4 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST down - OKST 7, ND 21 0.32 84.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 74

Started Drive at: ND 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.69 - 1.38 = 0.32

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.38)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.1%

Win Probability (After): 84.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:30 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 26) Jack Coan pass incomplete - OKST 7, ND 21 -0.49 84.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: ND 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.19 - 1.69 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.69)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.4%

Win Probability (After): 84.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:23 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at ND 26) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 16 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST down - OKST 7, ND 21 1.40 84.1% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 58

Started Drive at: ND 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.41 - 1.00 = 1.40

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.00)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.1%

Win Probability (After): 84.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:45 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 42) Coan, Jack pass incomplete to Mayer, Michael, PENALTY OKLAST roughing passer (Martin, Brock) 15 yards to the OKLAST43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME. - OKST 7, ND 21 0.95 84.8% 0.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 43

Started Drive at: ND 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.20 - 2.25 = 0.95

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.25)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.8%

Win Probability (After): 85.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:39 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at OKST 43) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 8 yds to the OKSt 35 - OKST 7, ND 21 0.55 85.2% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 35

Started Drive at: ND 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.53 - 2.99 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.99)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.2%

Win Probability (After): 87.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:08 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 2 at OKST 35) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 7 yds to the OKSt 28 for a 1ST down - OKST 7, ND 21 0.70 87.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 28

Started Drive at: ND 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.91 - 3.21 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.21)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.1%

Win Probability (After): 87.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:37 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at OKST 28) Braden Lenzy run for no gain to the OKSt 28 - OKST 7, ND 21 -0.31 87.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 28

Started Drive at: ND 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.02 - 3.33 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): 14 (17.33)

Score Difference (End): 14 (17.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.5%

Win Probability (After): 87.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:02 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at OKST 28) Chris Tyree run for 1 yd to the OKSt 27 - OKST 7, ND 21 -0.47 87.6% -3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 27

Started Drive at: ND 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.36 - 2.82 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.82)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.6%

Win Probability (After): 84.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:23 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 9 at OKST 27) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 20 yds to the OKSt 7 for a 1ST down - OKST 7, ND 21 3.00 86.7% 4.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 7

Started Drive at: ND 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.23 - 2.23 = 3.00

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.23)

Score Difference (End): 14 (19.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.7%

Win Probability (After): 90.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:20 ESPN team id 87 (1st & Goal at OKST 7) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr., broken up by Jabbar Muhammad - OKST 7, ND 21 -0.58 91.3% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 7

Started Drive at: ND 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.51 - 5.09 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 14 (19.09)

Score Difference (End): 14 (18.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 21

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.3%

Win Probability (After): 90.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:16 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & Goal at OKST 7) Michael Mayer 7 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick) - OKST 7, ND 28 2.50 90.9% 6.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.50 = 2.50

Score Difference (Before): 14 (18.50)

Score Difference (End): 21 (21.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.9%

Win Probability (After): 97.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 21 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:16 ESPN team id 197 (Kickoff at OKST 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - OKST 7, ND 28 0.00 5.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 0.55 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.45)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-20.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.4%

Win Probability (After): 5.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:09 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 25) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 13 yds to the OKSt 38 for a 1ST down - OKST 7, ND 28 0.48 5.4% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 62

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 0.54 = 0.48

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.46)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-19.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.4%

Win Probability (After): 6.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:54 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 38) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 41 yds to the NDame 21 for a 1ST down - OKST 7, ND 28 2.68 5.7% 3.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 21

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 0.79 = 2.68

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-20.21)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-17.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.7%

Win Probability (After): 8.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:43 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 21) Spencer Sanders run for 12 yds to the NDame 9 for a 1ST down - OKST 7, ND 28 1.30 8.8% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 9

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.72 - 3.42 = 1.30

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-17.58)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-16.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.8%

Win Probability (After): 10.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:42 ESPN team id 197 (1st & Goal at ND 9) Timeout OKLAHOMA ST, clock 00:42 - OKST 7, ND 28 0.00 10.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.72 - 4.72 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-16.28)

Score Difference (End): -21 (-16.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 7, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.0%

Win Probability (After): 10.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:37 ESPN team id 197 (1st & Goal at ND 9) Tay Martin 9 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Tanner Brown Kick) - OKST 14, ND 28 2.33 9.1% 6.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 99

Started Drive at: OKST 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.67 = 2.33

Score Difference (Before): -21 (-16.33)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 14, ND 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.1%

Win Probability (After): 15.4%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:37 ESPN team id 87 (Kickoff at ND 35) Tanner Brown kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - OKST 14, ND 28 0.00 86.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.48 - 0.48 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.48)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 14, ND 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.2%

Win Probability (After): 86.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:30 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 25) Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the NDame 29 - OKST 14, ND 28 -0.40 86.2% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 0.40 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.40)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 14, ND 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.2%

Win Probability (After): 86.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 197 (Kickoff at OKST 35) Jonathan Doerer kickoff for 61 yds , Brennan Presley return for 9 yds to the OKSt 13 - OKST 14, ND 28 -1.57 14.5% -2.5%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 87

Started Drive at: OKST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.19 - -0.62 = -1.57

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.62)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-16.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 14, ND 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.5%

Win Probability (After): 12.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:50 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 13) Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the OKSt 14 - OKST 14, ND 28 -0.60 15.0% -3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 86

Started Drive at: OKST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.65 - -1.05 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.05)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 14, ND 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.0%

Win Probability (After): 12.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:29 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 9 at OKST 14) Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the OKSt 17 - OKST 14, ND 28 -0.49 13.0% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 83

Started Drive at: OKST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.06 - -1.57 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.57)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-16.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 14, ND 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.0%

Win Probability (After): 12.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:56 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 6 at OKST 17) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 14 yds to the OKSt 31 for a 1ST down - OKST 14, ND 28 2.25 11.4% 4.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 69

Started Drive at: OKST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - -2.05 = 2.25

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-16.05)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 14, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.4%

Win Probability (After): 15.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:41 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 31) Spencer Sanders run for 3 yds to the OKSt 34 - OKST 14, ND 28 -0.46 15.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 66

Started Drive at: OKST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.21 - 0.25 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.75)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 14, ND 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.1%

Win Probability (After): 14.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:09 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 7 at OKST 34) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 10 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST down - OKST 14, ND 28 1.47 14.6% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 56

Started Drive at: OKST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.18 - -0.28 = 1.47

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.28)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 14, ND 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.6%

Win Probability (After): 15.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:47 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 44) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan Presley - OKST 14, ND 28 -0.71 15.5% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56

Started Drive at: OKST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.40 - 1.10 = -0.71

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.90)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 14, ND 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.5%

Win Probability (After): 15.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:40 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 10 at OKST 44) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 6 yds to the 50 yard line - OKST 14, ND 28 -0.03 15.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 50

Started Drive at: OKST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.42 - 0.45 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.55)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 14, ND 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.1%

Win Probability (After): 15.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:20 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 4 at 50) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 6 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST down - OKST 14, ND 28 1.70 15.1% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 44

Started Drive at: OKST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.12 - 0.42 = 1.70

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.58)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 14, ND 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.1%

Win Probability (After): 16.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:05 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 44) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaylen Warren for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 45 - OKST 14, ND 28 -1.39 16.0% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 45

Started Drive at: OKST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.72 - 2.12 = -1.39

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.88)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 14, ND 28

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.0%

Win Probability (After): 14.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:30 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 11 at ND 45) Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 15 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST down - OKST 14, ND 28 2.53 15.0% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 30

Started Drive at: OKST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.35 - 0.83 = 2.53

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.17)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 14, ND 28

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.0%

Win Probability (After): 17.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:16 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 30) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Rashod Owens for 25 yds to the NDame 5 for a 1ST down - OKST 14, ND 28 2.28 17.3% 3.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 5

Started Drive at: OKST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.61 - 3.33 = 2.28

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.67)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-8.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 14, ND 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.3%

Win Probability (After): 20.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:52 ESPN team id 197 (1st & Goal at ND 5) Tay Martin 5 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Tanner Brown Kick) - OKST 21, ND 28 1.40 20.1% 11.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: OKST 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.60 = 1.40

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-8.40)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 87 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.1%

Win Probability (After): 31.8%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:52 ESPN team id 87 (Kickoff at ND 35) Tanner Brown kickoff for 62 yds , Chris Tyree return for 16 yds to the NDame 19 - OKST 21, ND 28 -1.30 75.1% -2.3%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 81

Started Drive at: ND 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - 2.14 = -1.30

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.14)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.1%

Win Probability (After): 72.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:38 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 19) Chris Tyree run for 5 yds to the NDame 24 - OKST 21, ND 28 -0.14 74.7% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 76

Started Drive at: ND 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.86 - 2.00 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.00)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.7%

Win Probability (After): 75.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:08 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 5 at ND 24) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr. - OKST 21, ND 28 -1.03 74.7% -2.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76

Started Drive at: ND 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - 1.94 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.94)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.7%

Win Probability (After): 72.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:04 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 5 at ND 24) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Deion Colzie - OKST 21, ND 28 -1.59 71.0% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76

Started Drive at: ND 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.67 - 0.92 = -1.59

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.92)

Score Difference (End): 7 (6.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.0%

Win Probability (After): 69.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:56 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 5 at ND 24) Jay Bramblett punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OKSt 40 - OKST 21, ND 28 -0.44 69.0% -1.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 60

Started Drive at: ND 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.08 - -0.65 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.35)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.92)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.0%

Win Probability (After): 67.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:50 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 40) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Bryson Green - OKST 21, ND 28 -0.66 32.7% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: OKST 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.62 - 1.28 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.72)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.7%

Win Probability (After): 31.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:45 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 10 at OKST 40) LD Brown run for 3 yds to the OKSt 43 - OKST 21, ND 28 -0.62 32.6% -2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 57

Started Drive at: OKST 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.12 - 0.73 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.27)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.6%

Win Probability (After): 29.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:29 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 7 at OKST 43) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete - OKST 21, ND 28 -1.50 30.6% -3.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: OKST 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.38 - 0.12 = -1.50

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.88)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.6%

Win Probability (After): 26.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:22 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 7 at OKST 43) Tom Hutton punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Matt Salerno at the NDame 15 - OKST 21, ND 28 -0.43 26.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 85

Started Drive at: OKST 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.83 - -1.40 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.40)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.83)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.5%

Win Probability (After): 26.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:15 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 15) Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the NDame 17 - OKST 21, ND 28 -0.57 73.9% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 83

Started Drive at: ND 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.22 - 1.80 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.80)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.9%

Win Probability (After): 73.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:41 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 8 at ND 17) Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the NDame 22 - OKST 21, ND 28 -0.10 74.2% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 78

Started Drive at: ND 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 1.17 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.17)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.2%

Win Probability (After): 73.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:00 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 3 at ND 22) Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 10 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST down - OKST 21, ND 28 1.56 73.6% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 68

Started Drive at: ND 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 1.02 = 1.56

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.02)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.6%

Win Probability (After): 75.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:30 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 32) Jack Coan pass complete to Logan Diggs for no gain to the NDame 32 - OKST 21, ND 28 -0.60 75.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 68

Started Drive at: ND 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 2.53 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.53)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.0%

Win Probability (After): 74.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:56 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at ND 32) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael Mayer - OKST 21, ND 28 -1.04 74.7% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 68

Started Drive at: ND 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.92 - 1.96 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.96)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.7%

Win Probability (After): 72.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:49 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 10 at ND 32) Jack Coan pass complete to Logan Diggs for 12 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST down - OKST 21, ND 28 2.22 73.2% 3.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 56

Started Drive at: ND 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.25 - 1.03 = 2.22

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.03)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.2%

Win Probability (After): 76.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:17 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 44) Jack Coan pass complete to Logan Diggs for 3 yds to the NDame 47 - OKST 21, ND 28 -0.36 77.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 53

Started Drive at: ND 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 3.22 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.22)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.3%

Win Probability (After): 76.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:51 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 7 at ND 47) Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 3 yds to the 50 yard line - OKST 21, ND 28 -0.36 77.1% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 50

Started Drive at: ND 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 2.83 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.83)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.1%

Win Probability (After): 76.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:16 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 4 at 50) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr. - OKST 21, ND 28 -1.89 77.2% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: ND 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.62 - 2.51 = -1.89

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.51)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.2%

Win Probability (After): 75.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:09 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 4 at 50) Jay Bramblett punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 11 - OKST 21, ND 28 0.05 76.1% -3.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 89

Started Drive at: ND 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.68 - 0.63 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.63)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.68)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.1%

Win Probability (After): 73.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 5:02 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 11) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 4 yds to the OKSt 15 - OKST 21, ND 28 -0.17 26.9% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 85

Started Drive at: OKST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.85 - -0.69 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.69)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 26.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:41 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 6 at OKST 15) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 7 yds to the OKSt 22 for a 1ST down - OKST 21, ND 28 0.65 26.4% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 78

Started Drive at: OKST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - -0.84 = 0.65

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.84)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.4%

Win Probability (After): 27.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:27 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 22) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jaden Bray - OKST 21, ND 28 -0.57 27.8% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 78

Started Drive at: OKST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.76 - -0.19 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.19)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.8%

Win Probability (After): 26.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:18 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 10 at OKST 22) Spencer Sanders run for 26 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST down - OKST 21, ND 28 2.56 27.0% 5.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 52

Started Drive at: OKST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.78 - -0.77 = 2.56

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.77)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.0%

Win Probability (After): 32.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:55 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 48) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 9 yds to the NDame 43 - OKST 21, ND 28 1.05 31.0% 2.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 43

Started Drive at: OKST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 1.77 = 1.05

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.23)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.0%

Win Probability (After): 33.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:42 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 1 at ND 43) Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST down - OKST 21, ND 28 -0.04 33.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 40

Started Drive at: OKST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.77 - 2.81 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.19)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.8%

Win Probability (After): 33.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:29 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 40) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 11 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST down - OKST 21, ND 28 0.78 34.1% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 29

Started Drive at: OKST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.55 - 2.76 = 0.78

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.24)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.1%

Win Probability (After): 35.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:16 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 29) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 9 yds to the NDame 20 - OKST 21, ND 28 1.08 32.9% 4.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 20

Started Drive at: OKST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.62 - 3.54 = 1.08

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.46)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.9%

Win Probability (After): 37.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:57 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 1 at ND 20) Spencer Sanders run for 12 yds to the NDame 8 for a 1ST down - OKST 21, ND 28 0.68 37.2% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 8

Started Drive at: OKST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.29 - 4.62 = 0.68

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.38)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-1.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 21, ND 28

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 81 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.2%

Win Probability (After): 38.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:47 ESPN team id 197 (1st & Goal at ND 8) Tay Martin 8 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Tanner Brown Kick) - OKST 28, ND 28 1.71 39.9% 9.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99

Started Drive at: OKST 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.29 = 1.71

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.71)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 28, ND 28

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.9%

Win Probability (After): 49.5%

Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:47 ESPN team id 87 (Kickoff at ND 35) Tanner Brown kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - OKST 28, ND 28 0.00 53.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 1.08 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 28, ND 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.4%

Win Probability (After): 53.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:44 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 25) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Chris Tyree - OKST 28, ND 28 -0.64 53.4% -3.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 1.08 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 28, ND 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.4%

Win Probability (After): 49.9%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:39 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at ND 25) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy - OKST 28, ND 28 -1.00 49.9% -5.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.55 - 0.45 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.45)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 28, ND 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.9%

Win Probability (After): 44.1%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:34 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 10 at ND 25) Jack Coan pass incomplete - OKST 28, ND 28 -1.44 44.3% -6.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.99 - -0.55 = -1.44

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.55)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 28, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.3%

Win Probability (After): 37.6%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:23 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 10 at ND 25) Jay Bramblett punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NOTREDAME 36 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Xavier Watts) to the OKSt 43 - OKST 28, ND 28 -0.36 38.0% 4.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 57

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.35 - -1.99 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.99)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.35)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 28, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.0%

Win Probability (After): 42.7%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 2:17 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 43) Spencer Sanders pass complete to John Paul Richardson for 5 yds to the OKSt 48 - OKST 28, ND 28 0.12 56.7% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 52

Started Drive at: OKST 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.46 - 2.34 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 28, ND 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.7%

Win Probability (After): 57.1%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:59 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 5 at OKST 48) Jaylen Warren run for 7 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST down - OKST 28, ND 28 0.71 56.5% 3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 45

Started Drive at: OKST 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.17 - 2.46 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.46)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 28, ND 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.5%

Win Probability (After): 59.7%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:46 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 45) Sanders, Spencer pass incomplete to Martin, Tay, PENALTY NOTREDAME pass interference (Lewis, Clarence) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST. - OKST 28, ND 28 0.95 59.4% 2.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 30

Started Drive at: OKST 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.13 - 3.18 = 0.95

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 28, ND 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.4%

Win Probability (After): 61.7%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:40 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 30) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 15 yds to the NDame 15 for a 1ST down - OKST 28, ND 28 0.92 62.0% 2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 15

Started Drive at: OKST 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.06 - 4.14 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 28, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.0%

Win Probability (After): 64.3%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:19 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 15) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Tay Martin - OKST 28, ND 28 -0.57 63.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 15

Started Drive at: OKST 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 5.06 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 28, ND 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.9%

Win Probability (After): 63.8%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:10 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 10 at ND 15) John Paul Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 16 - OKST 28, ND 28 -1.16 63.0% -3.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 16

Started Drive at: OKST 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.33 - 4.49 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 28, ND 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.0%

Win Probability (After): 59.6%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:41 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 12 at ND 16) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jaylen Warren for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 21 - OKST 28, ND 28 -1.12 60.2% -5.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 21

Started Drive at: OKST 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.21 - 3.34 = -1.12

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 28, ND 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.2%

Win Probability (After): 54.7%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:06 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 17 at ND 21) Tanner Brown 38 Yd Field Goal - OKST 31, ND 28 0.79 54.9% 12.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: OKST 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.21 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.21)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.9%

Win Probability (After): 67.4%

Away Score: 28 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 0:06 ESPN team id 87 (Kickoff at ND 35) Tanner Brown kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - OKST 31, ND 28 0.00 37.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.81 - 0.81 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.19)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.2%

Win Probability (After): 37.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 25) Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 12 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST down - OKST 31, ND 28 0.96 37.2% 2.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 63

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.76 - 0.81 = 0.96

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.19)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.2%

Win Probability (After): 39.9%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:55 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 37) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael Mayer - OKST 31, ND 28 -0.66 40.1% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 1.80 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.20)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.1%

Win Probability (After): 38.0%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:48 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at ND 37) Jack Coan pass incomplete - OKST 31, ND 28 -0.78 38.1% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.38 - 1.16 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.84)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.1%

Win Probability (After): 35.9%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:43 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 10 at ND 37) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 19 yds to the OKSt 44 for a 1ST down - OKST 31, ND 28 2.66 35.8% 11.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 44

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.03 - 0.37 = 2.66

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.63)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.8%

Win Probability (After): 47.6%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:13 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at OKST 44) Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the OKSt 44 Logan Diggs fumbled, forced by Kolby Harvell-Peel, recovered by OKSt Kolby Harvell-Peel , return for 3 yds to the OKSt 44 - OKST 31, ND 28 -5.72 46.9% -16.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 56

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.74 - 2.98 = -5.72

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.02)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.74)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.9%

Win Probability (After): 30.0%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:07 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 44) Spencer Sanders run for 11 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST down - OKST 31, ND 28 0.54 70.4% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 45

Started Drive at: OKST 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.21 - 2.67 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.67)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.4%

Win Probability (After): 70.9%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:49 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 45) Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the NDame 43 - OKST 31, ND 28 -0.50 70.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 43

Started Drive at: OKST 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.78 - 3.28 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.28)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.7%

Win Probability (After): 70.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:26 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 8 at ND 43) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Bryson Green for 17 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST down - OKST 31, ND 28 1.54 70.8% 3.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 26

Started Drive at: OKST 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 2.80 = 1.54

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.80)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.8%

Win Probability (After): 73.9%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:10 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 26) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 21 yds to the NDame 5 for a 1ST down - OKST 31, ND 28 1.50 74.9% 4.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 5

Started Drive at: OKST 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.88 - 4.37 = 1.50

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.37)

Score Difference (End): 3 (8.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.9%

Win Probability (After): 78.9%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:41 ESPN team id 197 (1st & Goal at ND 5) Brennan Presley run for 4 yds Brennan Presley fumbled, forced by Drew White, recovered by NDame Ramon Henderson - OKST 31, ND 28 -6.43 79.8% -16.5%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 80

Started Drive at: OKST 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.57 - 5.86 = -6.43

Score Difference (Before): 3 (8.86)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.43)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.8%

Win Probability (After): 63.3%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:35 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 20) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. - OKST 31, ND 28 -0.68 36.7% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - 0.64 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.36)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.7%

Win Probability (After): 35.5%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:30 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at ND 20) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy, broken up by Jabbar Muhammad - OKST 31, ND 28 -0.84 35.5% -3.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.88 - -0.05 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.05)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.5%

Win Probability (After): 31.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:22 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 10 at ND 20) Jack Coan run for 4 yds to the NDame 24 - OKST 31, ND 28 -1.13 31.4% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 76

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.03 - -0.90 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.90)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-5.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.4%

Win Probability (After): 29.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:47 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 6 at ND 24) Jay Bramblett punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Brennan Presley at the OKSt 39 - OKST 31, ND 28 -0.46 29.0% 0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 61

Started Drive at: ND 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.48 - -2.02 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-5.02)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.48)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.0%

Win Probability (After): 29.6%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 11:41 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 39) Spencer Sanders run for 22 yds to the NDame 39 for a 1ST down - OKST 31, ND 28 1.26 70.4% 3.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 39

Started Drive at: OKST 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.69 - 2.42 = 1.26

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.42)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.4%

Win Probability (After): 74.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:22 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 39) Jaylen Warren run for 7 yds to the NDame 32 - OKST 31, ND 28 0.42 74.0% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 32

Started Drive at: OKST 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 3.66 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.66)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.0%

Win Probability (After): 75.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:08 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 3 at ND 32) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 13 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST down - OKST 31, ND 28 0.65 75.2% 2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 19

Started Drive at: OKST 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.72 - 4.07 = 0.65

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.07)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.2%

Win Probability (After): 77.2%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:51 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 19) Spencer Sanders run for 5 yds to the NDame 14 - OKST 31, ND 28 0.10 77.9% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 14

Started Drive at: OKST 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.80 - 4.69 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.69)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.9%

Win Probability (After): 77.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:39 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 5 at ND 14) Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 16 - OKST 31, ND 28 -1.05 77.7% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 16

Started Drive at: OKST 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.76 - 4.81 = -1.05

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.81)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.7%

Win Probability (After): 76.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:05 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 7 at ND 16) Sanders, Spencer pass complete to Carter, Logan for 14 yards to the NOTREDAME2, PENALTY OKLAST face mask (Woodard, Hunter) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME31, NO PLAY. - OKST 31, ND 28 -1.53 76.2% -7.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 31

Started Drive at: OKST 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.23 - 3.75 = -1.53

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.75)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.2%

Win Probability (After): 69.1%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:47 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 22 at ND 31) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Brennan Presley for 7 yds to the NDame 24 - OKST 31, ND 28 -0.17 71.4% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 24

Started Drive at: OKST 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - 2.19 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.19)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 31, ND 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.4%

Win Probability (After): 68.7%

Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:07 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 15 at ND 24) Tanner Brown 41 Yd Field Goal - OKST 34, ND 28 1.04 69.9% 11.3%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24

Started Drive at: OKST 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.96 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.96)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.9%

Win Probability (After): 81.2%

Away Score: 31 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:07 ESPN team id 87 (Kickoff at ND 35) Tanner Brown kickoff for 64 yds , Chris Tyree return for 28 yds to the NDame 29 - OKST 34, ND 28 -0.73 28.1% -1.1%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 71

Started Drive at: ND 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.27 - 1.00 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.00)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.1%

Win Probability (After): 26.9%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:52 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 29) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - OKST 34, ND 28 1.35 28.6% 3.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 50

Started Drive at: ND 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.66 - 1.32 = 1.35

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.68)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.6%

Win Probability (After): 32.1%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:28 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at 50) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy - OKST 34, ND 28 -0.57 32.4% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: ND 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.98 - 2.56 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.44)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.4%

Win Probability (After): 30.1%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:22 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at 50) Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 16 yds to the OKSt 34 for a 1ST down - OKST 34, ND 28 1.77 30.3% 7.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 34

Started Drive at: ND 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.62 - 1.85 = 1.77

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.15)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.3%

Win Probability (After): 37.3%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:53 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at OKST 34) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy, broken up by Korie Black - OKST 34, ND 28 -0.57 36.2% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: ND 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.01 - 3.57 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.43)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.2%

Win Probability (After): 34.2%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:47 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at OKST 34) Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 10 yds to the OKSt 24 for a 1ST down - OKST 34, ND 28 1.03 34.2% 4.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 24

Started Drive at: ND 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.12 - 3.09 = 1.03

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.91)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-1.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.2%

Win Probability (After): 38.9%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:19 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at OKST 24) Jack Coan sacked by Brock Martin for a loss of 6 yards to the OKSt 30 - OKST 34, ND 28 -1.49 38.7% -6.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 30

Started Drive at: ND 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.66 - 4.15 = -1.49

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-1.85)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.7%

Win Probability (After): 32.2%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:35 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 16 at OKST 30) Jack Coan pass intercepted Malcolm Rodriguez return for 11 yds to the OKSt 29 - OKST 34, ND 28 -4.30 31.2% -13.4%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 71

Started Drive at: ND 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.57 - 2.73 = -4.30

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.27)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.57)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.2%

Win Probability (After): 17.8%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:28 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 29) Jaylen Warren run for 20 yds to the OKSt 49 for a 1ST down - OKST 34, ND 28 1.05 82.8% 4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 51

Started Drive at: OKST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.52 - 1.48 = 1.05

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.48)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.8%

Win Probability (After): 86.9%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:07 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at OKST 49) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 6 yds to the NDame 45 - OKST 34, ND 28 0.38 87.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 45

Started Drive at: OKST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - 2.36 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.36)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.3%

Win Probability (After): 86.9%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:54 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 4 at ND 45) Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the NDame 43 - OKST 34, ND 28 -0.39 89.0% -2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 43

Started Drive at: OKST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 2.56 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.56)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.0%

Win Probability (After): 86.4%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:16 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 2 at ND 43) Spencer Sanders run for 1 yd to the NDame 42 - OKST 34, ND 28 -0.94 89.5% -4.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 42

Started Drive at: OKST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.31 - 2.25 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.25)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.5%

Win Probability (After): 84.8%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:38 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 1 at ND 42) Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST down - OKST 34, ND 28 1.88 88.7% 1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 40

Started Drive at: OKST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.12 - 1.25 = 1.88

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.25)

Score Difference (End): 6 (9.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.7%

Win Probability (After): 90.5%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:28 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 40) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Jaden Bray - OKST 34, ND 28 -0.46 91.6% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40

Started Drive at: OKST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.52 - 2.98 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.98)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.7%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:25 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 10 at ND 40) Spencer Sanders pass incomplete to Brennan Presley - OKST 34, ND 28 -0.70 90.9% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 40

Started Drive at: OKST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.84 - 2.53 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.53)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.9%

Win Probability (After): 89.9%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:18 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 10 at ND 40) Spencer Sanders pass complete to Tay Martin for 29 yds to the NDame 11 for a 1ST down - OKST 34, ND 28 3.06 90.0% 4.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 11

Started Drive at: OKST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.89 - 1.83 = 3.06

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.83)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.0%

Win Probability (After): 94.5%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:51 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 11) Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the NDame 10 - OKST 34, ND 28 -0.48 96.7% -3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 10

Started Drive at: OKST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 4.82 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.82)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 93.4%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:11 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 9 at ND 10) OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (Josh Sills) to the NDame 15 - OKST 34, ND 28 -0.56 96.3% -2.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 15

Started Drive at: OKST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.62 - 4.18 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.18)

Score Difference (End): 6 (9.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.3%

Win Probability (After): 93.7%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:07 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 14 at ND 15) Spencer Sanders run for 4 yds to the NDame 11 Spencer Sanders fumbled, forced by Isaiah Foskey, recovered by NDame Drew White - OKST 34, ND 28 -3.73 96.3% -14.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 89

Started Drive at: OKST 29

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.28 - 3.45 = -3.73

Score Difference (Before): 6 (9.45)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.72)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.3%

Win Probability (After): 81.3%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:04 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 11) Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 4 yds to the NDame 15 - OKST 34, ND 28 -0.07 18.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 85

Started Drive at: ND 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 0.27 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.73)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.2%

Win Probability (After): 17.9%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:49 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 6 at ND 15) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael Mayer - OKST 34, ND 28 -0.62 19.5% -3.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 85

Started Drive at: ND 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.38 - 0.24 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.76)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.5%

Win Probability (After): 15.9%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:44 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 6 at ND 15) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden Lenzy - OKST 34, ND 28 -1.10 17.2% -3.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 85

Started Drive at: ND 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.44 - -0.34 = -1.10

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.34)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-7.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.2%

Win Probability (After): 13.6%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:38 ESPN team id 87 (4th & 6 at ND 15) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr., broken up by Kolby Harvell-Peel - OKST 34, ND 28 -2.77 13.2% -10.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 15

Started Drive at: ND 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.18 - -1.40 = -2.77

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-7.40)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.18)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.2%

Win Probability (After): 2.7%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:32 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 15) Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the NDame 11 - OKST 34, ND 28 0.04 96.7% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 11

Started Drive at: ND 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 4.25 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.25)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 97.1%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:31 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 6 at ND 11) Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 02:31 - OKST 34, ND 28 0.00 96.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 11

Started Drive at: ND 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 4.29 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.29)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.8%

Win Probability (After): 96.8%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:27 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 6 at ND 11) Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the NDame 10 - OKST 34, ND 28 -0.64 97.1% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 10

Started Drive at: ND 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.64 - 4.28 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.28)

Score Difference (End): 6 (9.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.1%

Win Probability (After): 95.7%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:26 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 5 at ND 10) Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 02:26 - OKST 34, ND 28 0.00 95.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: ND 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.64 - 3.64 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (9.64)

Score Difference (End): 6 (9.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.6%

Win Probability (After): 95.6%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:20 ESPN team id 197 (3rd & 5 at ND 10) Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the NDame 8 - OKST 34, ND 28 -1.01 96.1% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 8

Started Drive at: ND 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.60 - 3.61 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): 6 (9.61)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.1%

Win Probability (After): 94.1%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:19 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 3 at ND 8) Timeout NOTRE DAME, clock 02:19 - OKST 34, ND 28 0.00 94.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8

Started Drive at: ND 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.60 - 2.60 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.60)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.2%

Win Probability (After): 94.2%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:16 ESPN team id 87 (Kickoff at ND 35) Tanner Brown kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - OKST 34, ND 28 -0.01 21.1% -0.5%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 1.15 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.85)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 34, ND 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.1%

Win Probability (After): 20.6%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:16 ESPN team id 197 (4th & 3 at ND 8) Tanner Brown 25 yd FG GOOD - OKST 37, ND 28 0.37 94.5% 3.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8

Started Drive at: ND 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.63 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): 6 (8.63)

Score Difference (End): 9 (9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 37, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.5%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 34 (37) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:12 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 25) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Logan Diggs, broken up by Malcolm Rodriguez - OKST 37, ND 28 -0.42 3.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.69 - 1.11 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.89)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 37, ND 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.2%

Win Probability (After): 3.0%

Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:08 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at ND 25) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael Mayer - OKST 37, ND 28 -0.58 3.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.10 - 0.68 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.32)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 37, ND 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.0%

Win Probability (After): 2.7%

Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:02 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 10 at ND 25) Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 17 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST down - OKST 37, ND 28 1.78 2.7% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 58

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.84 - 0.07 = 1.78

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.93)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 37, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.7%

Win Probability (After): 4.5%

Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:56 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at ND 42) NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Jarrett Patterson) to the NDame 37 - OKST 37, ND 28 -0.59 3.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 63

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.25 - 1.85 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.15)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 37, ND 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.6%

Win Probability (After): 3.2%

Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:49 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 15 at ND 37) Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael Mayer, broken up by Tanner McCalister - OKST 37, ND 28 -0.19 3.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.87 - 1.06 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.94)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-8.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 37, ND 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.0%

Win Probability (After): 2.9%

Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:42 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 15 at ND 37) Logan Diggs run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line - OKST 37, ND 28 0.81 2.6% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 50

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - 0.65 = 0.81

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.35)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-7.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 37, ND 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.6%

Win Probability (After): 3.6%

Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:21 ESPN team id 87 (3rd & 1 at 50) Jack Coan pass complete to Lorenzo Styles Jr. for 15 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST down - OKST 37, ND 28 1.39 2.9% 2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 35

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.69 - 1.30 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-7.70)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-6.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 37, ND 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.9%

Win Probability (After): 5.2%

Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:17 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at OKST 35) Coan, Jack pass incomplete to Tyree, Chris, PENALTY OKLAST holding (Rodriguez, Malcolm) 10 yards to the OKLAST25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME. - OKST 37, ND 28 0.82 5.0% 2.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 25

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 2.63 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-6.37)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-5.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 37, ND 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.0%

Win Probability (After): 7.2%

Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:11 ESPN team id 87 (1st & 10 at OKST 25) Jack Coan pass incomplete - OKST 37, ND 28 -0.35 6.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.10 - 3.45 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-5.55)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-5.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 37, ND 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.7%

Win Probability (After): 6.4%

Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:05 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at OKST 25) Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 25 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK) - OKST 37, ND 35 3.88 5.2% 22.0%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.12 = 3.88

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-5.88)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 37, ND 35

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.2%

Win Probability (After): 27.2%

Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 28 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:05 ESPN team id 87 (2nd & 10 at ND 35) Timeout OKLAHOMA ST, clock 01:05 - OKST 37, ND 28 0.00 29.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: ND 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 7.00 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.08)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 37, ND 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.8%

Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 35 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:05 ESPN team id 197 (Kickoff at OKST 35) Jonathan Doerer on-side kick recovered by OKLAHOMA ST at the NDame 43 - OKST 37, ND 28 0.95 99.0% 0.1%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 43

Started Drive at: ND 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.75 - 0.79 = 0.95

Score Difference (Before): 9 (9.79)

Score Difference (End): 9 (10.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 37, ND 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.0%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:02 ESPN team id 197 (1st & 10 at ND 43) TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 46 - OKST 37, ND 35 -0.86 99.1% -12.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 46

Started Drive at: ND 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 1.71 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 9 (10.71)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 37, ND 35

Drive Summary: 1 play, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 86.5%

Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 28 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:26 ESPN team id 197 (2nd & 13 at ND 46) TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard line - OKST 37, ND 35 -0.21 93.5% 6.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 50

Started Drive at: ND 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.48 - 0.69 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.69)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: OKST 37, ND 35

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.5%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3