Baylor 21 @ Ole Miss 7

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 5.72 | Odds: MISS -1, O/U 60.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 239 ESPN team id 145
Total Plays 6699
Total EPA -15.97-32.77
  Offensive EPA -11.56-24.47
  Special Teams EPA -2.77-7.57
  Penalty EPA -2.18-3.44
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 0.542.71
Production ESPN team id 239 ESPN team id 145
Scrimmage Plays 5888
  Yards 328434
  Yards/Play 5.664.93
  EPA -11.56-24.47
  EPA/Play -0.20-0.28
Passes 17 (29%)44 (50%)
  Yards 40184
  Yards/Play 2.354.18
  EPA -12.63-30.18
  EPA/Play -0.74-0.69
Rushes 41 (71%)44 (50%)
  Yards 279207
  Yards/Play 6.804.70
  EPA 1.075.71
  EPA/Play 0.030.13
Rushing ESPN team id 239 ESPN team id 145
Scrimmage Plays 5888
Rushes 41 (71%)44 (50%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 2 (5%)1 (2%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 2 (100%)1 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 5 (12%)4 (9%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 17 (41%)16 (36%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 19 (46%)20 (45%)
OL Line Yards 75.692.5
  Per Carry 1.842.10
Highlight Yards 12852
  Per Rush Opportunity 6.742.60
Explosiveness ESPN team id 239 ESPN team id 145
Total Plays 6699
Scrimmage Plays 5888
Explosive Plays 3 (5%)9 (10%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 0 (0%)3 (7%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 3 (7%)6 (14%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -20.53-53.98
  EPA/Play -0.37-0.68
  When Passing -12.63-42.75
    EPA/Play -0.74-0.97
  When Rushing -7.90-11.23
    EPA/Play -0.21-0.30
Situational ESPN team id 239 ESPN team id 145
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 24 (41%)25 (28%)
  When Passing 5 (29%)10 (23%)
  When Rushing 19 (46%)15 (34%)
  On Standard Downs 16 (42%)17 (35%)
  On Passing Downs 8 (40%)8 (20%)
  On Early Downs 18 (44%)14 (24%)
  On Late Downs 6 (35%)11 (38%)
  During "Middle 8" 3 (23%)2 (20%)
Early Downs 4159
  First Downs Created 3 (7%)8 (14%)
  EPA -2.99-23.63
  EPA/Play -0.07-0.40
  Passes 12 (29%)30 (51%)
  Rushes 29 (71%)29 (49%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 4 (33%)7 (23%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 14 (48%)7 (24%)
"Middle 8" Plays 1310
  EPA -8.28-5.68
  EPA/play -0.64-0.57
  Passes 6 (46%)7 (70%)
  Rushes 7 (54%)3 (30%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 0 (0%)1 (14%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 3 (43%)1 (33%)
Drives ESPN team id 239 ESPN team id 145
Total 1313
Avg Starting Field Position Own 32Own 26
Plays/Drive 5.598.83
Yards/Drive 28.9333.52
Available Yards % 43%45%
Defensive ESPN team id 239 ESPN team id 145
Scrimmage Plays 8858
Stop Rate 48%57%
Havoc Plays Created 13 (15%)3 (5%)
  Passing 13 (30%)1 (6%)
  Rushing 0 (0%)2 (5%)
TFLs Generated 102
  Passing 100
  Rushing 02
Sacks Generated 10 (23%)0 (0%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 31
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 239 ESPN team id 145
Turnovers 25
  Fumbles 12
  Fumbles Lost 12
  Fumbles Recovered 00
  Interceptions 13
Turnover Margin 3-3
Expected Turnovers 1.72.2
Expected Turnover Margin 0.4-0.4
Turnover Luck (pts) 12.8-12.8
Special Teams ESPN team id 239 ESPN team id 145
Total Plays 8 11
Total EPA -2.77 -7.57
  Field Goal EPA 0 -6.45
  Punting EPA -1.05 -0.03
  Kickoff Return EPA -1.72 -1.1

Baylor [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Gerry Bohanon 7/17, 40 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 0 Scks, 11.5 xQBR 2.35 -0.74 -12.63 29% -31.0%
Rush attempts
Monaray Baldwin 1 carry, 48 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 48.00 3.92 3.92 100% 15.0%
Dillon Doyle 1 carry, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 1.01 1.01 100% 3.0%
Abram Smith 25 carries, 172 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 6.88 0.02 0.57 52% 3.0%
Trestan Ebner 6 carries, 36 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.03 0.20 33% 3.0%
Drew Estrada 1 carry, 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.74 -0.74 0% -1.0%
TEAM 1 carry, -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.00 -0.77 -0.77 0% 0.0%
Gerry Bohanon 6 carries, 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.33 -0.52 -3.12 33% -6.0%
Pass targets
Abram Smith 1 catch (1 target), 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 1.93 1.93 100% 2.0%
Tyquan Thornton 1 catch (1 target), 2 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 1.04 1.04 100% 5.0%
Drake Dabney 1 catch (1 target), 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 0.44 0.44 100% 1.0%
Drew Estrada 2 catches (2 targets), 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 -0.05 -0.10 50% -2.0%
R.J. Sneed 2 catches (2 targets), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 -1.11 -2.23 50% -6.0%

Ole Miss [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Matt Corral 2/6, 10 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 3 Scks, 37.5 xQBR 1.11 -1.00 -9.01 11% -25.0%
Luke Altmyer 15/28, 174 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 7 Scks, 24.3 xQBR 4.97 -0.60 -21.17 26% -21.0%
Rush attempts
Matt Corral 4 carries, 35 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.75 1.86 7.44 75% 21.0%
Jerrion Ealy 12 carries, 65 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.42 0.21 2.47 33% -12.0%
Dontario Drummond 3 carries, 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.33 0.27 0.80 67% 1.0%
Luke Altmyer 10 carries, 38 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.80 -0.09 -0.93 20% 1.0%
Snoop Conner 11 carries, 42 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.82 -0.09 -1.03 27% 1.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. 4 carries, 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.75 -0.76 -3.05 25% -12.0%
Pass targets
Dontario Drummond 9 catches (9 targets), 104 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.56 1.09 9.83 78% 24.0%
Braylon Sanders 1 catch (1 target), 37 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 37.00 4.47 4.47 100% 16.0%
Jonathan Mingo 2 catches (2 targets), 33 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.50 1.70 3.39 100% 9.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. 1 catch (1 target), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.04 -0.04 0% 0.0%
Snoop Conner 2 catches (2 targets), 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.65 -1.30 0% -5.0%
Jerrion Ealy 2 catches (2 targets), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.83 -1.66 0% -6.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 10:16 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 7 at BAY 12) Luke Altmyer pass intercepted for a TD Al Walcott return for 96 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 7, MISS 0 -10.79 55.5% -29.5%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.79 = -10.79

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.79)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 124 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.5%

Win Probability (After): 26.0%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:19 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 1 at MISS 30) Gerry Bohanon pass intercepted Miles Battle return for 9 yds to the Miss 9 - BAY 7, MISS 7 -4.52 61.6% -11.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 91

Started Drive at: BAY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.11 - 4.41 = -4.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.41)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.11)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.6%

Win Probability (After): 50.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:01 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 7 at BAY 41) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 18 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 4.47 46.2% 14.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 23

Started Drive at: MISS 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - 0.05 = 4.47

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.2%

Win Probability (After): 60.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:13 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 1 at BAY 37) Braylon Sanders 37 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (Cale Nation Kick) - BAY 7, MISS 7 4.47 32.8% 16.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99

Started Drive at: MISS 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.53 = 4.47

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.47)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.8%

Win Probability (After): 49.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:50 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 5 at BAY 42) Matt Corral run for 15 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, MISS 0 4.40 43.7% 11.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 27

Started Drive at: MISS 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - -0.06 = 4.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.7%

Win Probability (After): 54.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 11:14 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at MISS 48) Monaray Baldwin run for 48 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 14, MISS 7 3.92 65.4% 15.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.08 = 3.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.08)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.4%

Win Probability (After): 80.6%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:22 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 7 at MISS 12) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 29 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 3.62 40.9% 15.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 59

Started Drive at: MISS 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.25 - -1.37 = 3.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.9%

Win Probability (After): 56.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:52 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 10 at BAY 25) Luke Altmyer sacked by Bryson Jackson for a loss of 11 yards to the Bayl 36 - BAY 21, MISS 7 -3.57 2.4% -1.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 64

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.35 - 1.22 = -3.57

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.78)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.35)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 13:09 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 4 at BAY 17) Cale Nation 35 yd FG MISSED - BAY 7, MISS 7 -3.55 59.5% -14.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 80

Started Drive at: MISS 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.85 - 2.70 = -3.55

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.70)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.85)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.5%

Win Probability (After): 45.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:58 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 17 at MISS 18) Luke Altmyer pass intercepted JT Woods return for 16 yds to the Miss 15 - BAY 14, MISS 7 -3.50 14.4% -4.8%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 15

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -5.21 - -1.71 = -3.50

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.71)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.21)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 14, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.4%

Win Probability (After): 9.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 10:16 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 7 at BAY 12) Luke Altmyer pass intercepted for a TD Al Walcott return for 96 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 7, MISS 0 -10.79 55.5% -29.5%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.79 = -10.79

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.79)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 124 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.5%

Win Probability (After): 26.0%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 9:13 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 1 at BAY 37) Braylon Sanders 37 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (Cale Nation Kick) - BAY 7, MISS 7 4.47 32.8% 16.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99

Started Drive at: MISS 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.53 = 4.47

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.47)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.8%

Win Probability (After): 49.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:22 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 7 at MISS 12) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 29 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 3.62 40.9% 15.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 59

Started Drive at: MISS 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.25 - -1.37 = 3.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.9%

Win Probability (After): 56.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:14 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at MISS 48) Monaray Baldwin run for 48 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 14, MISS 7 3.92 65.4% 15.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.08 = 3.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.08)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.4%

Win Probability (After): 80.6%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:01 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 7 at BAY 41) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 18 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 4.47 46.2% 14.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 23

Started Drive at: MISS 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - 0.05 = 4.47

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.2%

Win Probability (After): 60.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 13:09 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 4 at BAY 17) Cale Nation 35 yd FG MISSED - BAY 7, MISS 7 -3.55 59.5% -14.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 80

Started Drive at: MISS 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.85 - 2.70 = -3.55

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.70)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.85)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.5%

Win Probability (After): 45.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:19 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 1 at MISS 30) Gerry Bohanon pass intercepted Miles Battle return for 9 yds to the Miss 9 - BAY 7, MISS 7 -4.52 61.6% -11.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 91

Started Drive at: BAY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.11 - 4.41 = -4.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.41)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.11)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.6%

Win Probability (After): 50.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:50 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 5 at BAY 42) Matt Corral run for 15 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, MISS 0 4.40 43.7% 11.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 27

Started Drive at: MISS 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - -0.06 = 4.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.7%

Win Probability (After): 54.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 11:49 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 6 at BAY 35) Trestan Ebner run for 17 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 2.24 54.6% 8.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 48

Started Drive at: BAY 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.14 - 0.90 = 2.24

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.90)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.6%

Win Probability (After): 63.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:03 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 2 at BAY 46) Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 1 yd to the Bayl 47 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -2.96 55.5% -7.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 47

Started Drive at: BAY 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.10 - -0.14 = -2.96

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.10)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.5%

Win Probability (After): 47.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 10:16 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 7 at BAY 12) Luke Altmyer pass intercepted for a TD Al Walcott return for 96 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 7, MISS 0 -10.79 55.5% -29.5%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.79 = -10.79

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.79)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 124 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.5%

Win Probability (After): 26.0%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 9:13 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 1 at BAY 37) Braylon Sanders 37 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (Cale Nation Kick) - BAY 7, MISS 7 4.47 32.8% 16.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99

Started Drive at: MISS 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.53 = 4.47

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.47)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.8%

Win Probability (After): 49.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:14 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at MISS 48) Monaray Baldwin run for 48 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 14, MISS 7 3.92 65.4% 15.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.08 = 3.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.08)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.4%

Win Probability (After): 80.6%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:24 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & Goal at MISS 2) Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 2 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 21, MISS 7 1.04 93.4% 4.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: MISS 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.96 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.96)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.4%

Win Probability (After): 98.0%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 145 (Kickoff at MISS 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 59 yds , Jerrion Ealy return for 19 yds to the Miss 25 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -1.10 45.3% -1.8%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.24 - 0.86 = -1.10

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.3%

Win Probability (After): 43.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:55 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at MISS 25) Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Miss 25 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.72 45.8% -2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - 0.94 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.94)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.8%

Win Probability (After): 43.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:27 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 10 at MISS 25) Matt Corral pass intercepted JT Woods return for no gain to the Bayl 38 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -2.37 45.0% -7.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 62

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.98 - 0.39 = -2.37

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.39)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.98)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.0%

Win Probability (After): 38.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:00 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 38) Abram Smith run for no gain to the Bayl 38 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.73 61.9% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: BAY 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.39 - 2.11 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.9%

Win Probability (After): 60.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:41 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 10 at BAY 38) Abram Smith run for 8 yds to the Bayl 46 - BAY 0, MISS 0 0.43 59.4% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 54

Started Drive at: BAY 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 1.39 = 0.43

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.39)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.4%

Win Probability (After): 61.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:08 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 2 at BAY 46) Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete - BAY 0, MISS 0 -1.97 60.5% -4.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54

Started Drive at: BAY 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - 1.77 = -1.97

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.5%

Win Probability (After): 56.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:08 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 2 at BAY 46) Timeout OLE MISS, clock 13:08 - BAY 0, MISS 0 0.00 55.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54

Started Drive at: BAY 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - -0.19 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.8%

Win Probability (After): 55.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 13:03 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 2 at BAY 46) Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 1 yd to the Bayl 47 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -2.96 55.5% -7.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 47

Started Drive at: BAY 38

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.10 - -0.14 = -2.96

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.10)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.5%

Win Probability (After): 47.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 13:00 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at BAY 47) Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 8 yds to the Bayl 39 - BAY 0, MISS 0 0.69 52.5% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 39

Started Drive at: BAY 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.81 - 3.12 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.12)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.5%

Win Probability (After): 53.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:34 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 2 at BAY 39) Dontario Drummond run for 5 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, MISS 0 0.07 52.6% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 34

Started Drive at: BAY 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.87 - 3.80 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.80)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 53.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:30 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at BAY 34) Matt Corral sacked by Garmon Randolph for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 41 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -1.62 53.2% -3.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 41

Started Drive at: BAY 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.26 - 3.88 = -1.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.88)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.2%

Win Probability (After): 49.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:43 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 17 at BAY 41) Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Bayl 38 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.87 49.7% -3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 38

Started Drive at: BAY 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.31 - 2.19 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.7%

Win Probability (After): 46.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:11 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 14 at BAY 38) Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 2 yds to the Bayl 36 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.92 46.7% -3.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 36

Started Drive at: BAY 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.25 - 1.17 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.7%

Win Probability (After): 43.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:11 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 12 at BAY 36) OLE MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 41 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.64 42.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 41

Started Drive at: BAY 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.43 - 0.21 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.7%

Win Probability (After): 42.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 17 at BAY 41) Mac Brown punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 8 - BAY 0, MISS 0 0.33 42.2% 4.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 92

Started Drive at: BAY 47

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - -0.13 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.20)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.2%

Win Probability (After): 46.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:10 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 8) Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 15 - BAY 0, MISS 0 0.78 52.6% 2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 85

Started Drive at: BAY 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.68 - -0.10 = 0.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 55.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 9:30 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 3 at BAY 15) Gerry Bohanon run for 5 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, MISS 0 0.28 55.0% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 80

Started Drive at: BAY 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - 0.56 = 0.28

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.56)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.0%

Win Probability (After): 55.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 8:48 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 20) BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Khalil Keith) to the Bayl 10 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -1.05 57.6% -5.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 90

Started Drive at: BAY 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.31 - 0.74 = -1.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.74)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.6%

Win Probability (After): 51.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 8:33 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 20 at BAY 10) Abram Smith run for 8 yds to the Bayl 18 - BAY 0, MISS 0 0.02 54.0% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 82

Started Drive at: BAY 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.37 - -0.39 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.39)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.0%

Win Probability (After): 54.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 8:05 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 12 at BAY 18) Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 4 yds to the Bayl 22 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.50 53.7% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 78

Started Drive at: BAY 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.85 - -0.36 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.36)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.7%

Win Probability (After): 51.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 7:15 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 8 at BAY 22) Gerry Bohanon run for 3 yds to the Bayl 25 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -1.07 51.5% -2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 75

Started Drive at: BAY 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.92 - -0.85 = -1.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.85)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.5%

Win Probability (After): 48.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 6:25 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 5 at BAY 25) Issac Power punt for 59 yds , Dontario Drummond returns for 15 yds to the Miss 31 - BAY 0, MISS 0 0.14 49.5% 1.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69

Started Drive at: BAY 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.74 - -1.88 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.88)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.74)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.5%

Win Probability (After): 51.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 6:20 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at MISS 31) Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 33 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.72 48.5% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 67

Started Drive at: MISS 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 1.75 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.75)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 46.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:03 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 8 at MISS 33) Matt Corral pass incomplete - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.95 46.4% -3.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: MISS 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.08 - 1.03 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.03)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.4%

Win Probability (After): 42.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:01 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 8 at MISS 33) Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Miss 40 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.05 42.9% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 60

Started Drive at: MISS 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.04 - 0.09 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.09)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.9%

Win Probability (After): 43.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:41 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 1 at MISS 40) Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the Miss 41 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, MISS 0 2.25 42.9% 7.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 59

Started Drive at: MISS 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.26 - 0.01 = 2.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.9%

Win Probability (After): 50.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 5:23 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at MISS 41) Matt Corral run for 12 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, MISS 0 0.84 50.8% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 47

Started Drive at: MISS 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.10 - 2.26 = 0.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.26)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.8%

Win Probability (After): 51.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:20 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at BAY 47) Matt Corral pass incomplete - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.68 52.1% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: MISS 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 3.11 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.1%

Win Probability (After): 51.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:43 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 10 at BAY 47) Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Bayl 45 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.85 51.9% -3.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 45

Started Drive at: MISS 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.58 - 2.43 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.43)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.9%

Win Probability (After): 47.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:26 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 8 at BAY 45) Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Bayl 42 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -1.59 49.2% -5.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 42

Started Drive at: MISS 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 1.58 = -1.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.58)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:50 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 5 at BAY 42) Matt Corral run for 15 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, MISS 0 4.40 43.7% 11.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 27

Started Drive at: MISS 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - -0.06 = 4.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.7%

Win Probability (After): 54.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 3:30 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at BAY 27) Snoop Conner run for 11 yds to the Bayl 16 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, MISS 0 0.73 54.9% 2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 16

Started Drive at: MISS 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.06 - 4.33 = 0.73

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.33)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.9%

Win Probability (After): 57.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:30 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at BAY 16) OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Nick Broeker) to the Bayl 21 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.81 57.1% -2.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 21

Started Drive at: MISS 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.25 - 5.06 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.1%

Win Probability (After): 54.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:11 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 15 at BAY 21) Matt Corral pass incomplete - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.64 54.8% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: MISS 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.62 - 4.25 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.25)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.8%

Win Probability (After): 53.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:54 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 15 at BAY 21) Matt Corral sacked by Jalen Pitre and Siaki Ika for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 26 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -1.16 54.0% -3.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 26

Started Drive at: MISS 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 3.63 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.63)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.0%

Win Probability (After): 51.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:13 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 20 at BAY 26) Matt Corral sacked by Cole Maxwell for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 32 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -1.36 50.8% -3.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 32

Started Drive at: MISS 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 2.48 = -1.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.48)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.8%

Win Probability (After): 47.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:48 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 26 at BAY 32) Cale Nation 49 yd FG MISSED - BAY 0, MISS 0 -2.90 46.9% -6.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 68

Started Drive at: MISS 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.75 - 1.15 = -2.90

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.15)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.75)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.9%

Win Probability (After): 40.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 1:43 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 32) Gerry Bohanon run for 6 yds to the Bayl 38 - BAY 0, MISS 0 0.19 59.6% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 62

Started Drive at: BAY 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 1.76 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.76)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.6%

Win Probability (After): 60.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 1:06 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 4 at BAY 38) Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 39 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.80 60.5% -2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 61

Started Drive at: BAY 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 2.00 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.00)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.5%

Win Probability (After): 57.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 0:23 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 3 at BAY 39) Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 40 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -1.56 57.4% -3.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 60

Started Drive at: BAY 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - 1.21 = -1.56

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.4%

Win Probability (After): 54.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 14:55 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 2 at BAY 40) Abram Smith run for no gain to the Bayl 40 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -3.29 52.3% -5.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 40

Started Drive at: BAY 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.60 - -0.31 = -3.29

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.31)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.60)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.3%

Win Probability (After): 47.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:30 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at BAY 40) Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.48 54.8% -2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 37

Started Drive at: BAY 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.15 - 3.64 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.8%

Win Probability (After): 51.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:19 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 7 at BAY 37) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 1 yd to the Bayl 36 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.67 54.6% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 36

Started Drive at: BAY 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.51 - 3.18 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.6%

Win Probability (After): 52.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:52 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 6 at BAY 36) Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, MISS 0 1.82 53.1% 3.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 28

Started Drive at: BAY 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.32 - 2.50 = 1.82

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.50)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.1%

Win Probability (After): 56.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:29 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at BAY 28) Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Bayl 27 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.56 56.3% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 27

Started Drive at: BAY 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.76 - 4.32 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.32)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.3%

Win Probability (After): 55.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:55 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 9 at BAY 27) Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 26 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.77 54.0% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 26

Started Drive at: BAY 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.01 - 3.78 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.0%

Win Probability (After): 53.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:25 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 8 at BAY 26) Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 22 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.57 51.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 22

Started Drive at: BAY 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 3.05 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.8%

Win Probability (After): 51.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:53 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 4 at BAY 22) Luke Altmyer run for 7 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, MISS 0 2.51 49.8% 7.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 15

Started Drive at: BAY 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.01 - 2.50 = 2.51

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.50)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.8%

Win Probability (After): 56.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:33 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at BAY 15) Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 12 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.30 55.6% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 12

Started Drive at: BAY 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.67 - 4.98 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.6%

Win Probability (After): 55.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:08 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 7 at BAY 12) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for no gain to the Bayl 12 - BAY 0, MISS 0 -0.81 58.4% -6.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 12

Started Drive at: BAY 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 4.60 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.60)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 0, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.4%

Win Probability (After): 52.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:16 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 7 at BAY 12) Luke Altmyer pass intercepted for a TD Al Walcott return for 96 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 7, MISS 0 -10.79 55.5% -29.5%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.79 = -10.79

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.79)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 124 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.5%

Win Probability (After): 26.0%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 10:16 ESPN team id 145 (Kickoff at MISS 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 7, MISS 0 0.00 26.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - 0.58 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.42)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 26.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:09 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at MISS 25) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 4 yds to the Miss 29 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.04 26.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 0.61 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.39)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.9%

Win Probability (After): 26.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:50 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 6 at MISS 29) Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the Miss 33 - BAY 7, MISS 0 0.10 26.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 67

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - 0.55 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.45)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.7%

Win Probability (After): 26.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:21 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 2 at MISS 33) Dontario Drummond run for 10 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 0 1.58 25.5% 4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 57

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 0.45 = 1.58

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.55)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.5%

Win Probability (After): 29.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:54 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at MISS 43) Luke Altmyer run for 1 yd to the Miss 44 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.35 28.6% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 56

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.52 - 1.88 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.12)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.6%

Win Probability (After): 27.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:25 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 9 at MISS 44) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.65 28.0% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.68 - 1.33 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.67)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.0%

Win Probability (After): 26.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:20 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 9 at MISS 44) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 -1.46 26.3% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.83 - 0.63 = -1.46

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.37)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.3%

Win Probability (After): 24.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:12 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 9 at MISS 44) Mac Brown punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 5 - BAY 7, MISS 0 0.38 24.1% 2.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 95

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.38 - -0.76 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.76)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.38)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.1%

Win Probability (After): 26.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 8:00 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 5) Abram Smith run for 49 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 0 2.81 74.3% 3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 95 -> 46

Started Drive at: BAY 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.26 - 0.45 = 2.81

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.45)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.3%

Win Probability (After): 77.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:35 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at MISS 46) BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Khalil Keith) to the Bayl 44 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -1.03 78.5% -1.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 56

Started Drive at: BAY 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.23 - 3.26 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.26)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.5%

Win Probability (After): 76.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:00 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 20 at BAY 44) Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 10 yds to the Miss 46 - BAY 7, MISS 0 0.40 77.8% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 46

Started Drive at: BAY 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - 2.34 = 0.40

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.8%

Win Probability (After): 78.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:36 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 10 at MISS 46) Drew Estrada run for 1 yd to the Miss 45 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.74 78.7% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 45

Started Drive at: BAY 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.05 - 2.78 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.78)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.7%

Win Probability (After): 77.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:45 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 9 at MISS 45) Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Miss 42 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -1.05 77.6% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 42

Started Drive at: BAY 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.61 - 1.66 = -1.05

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.66)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.6%

Win Probability (After): 76.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:59 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 6 at MISS 42) Issac Power punt for 34 yds, downed at the Miss 8 - BAY 7, MISS 0 0.17 76.2% -2.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 92

Started Drive at: BAY 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.57 - 0.40 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.40)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.57)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.2%

Win Probability (After): 73.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 4:50 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at MISS 8) Luke Altmyer run for no gain to the Miss 8 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.56 26.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 92

Started Drive at: MISS 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.79 - -0.23 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.23)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.3%

Win Probability (After): 25.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:40 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 10 at MISS 8) OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Caleb Warren) to the Miss 4 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.41 25.6% -2.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 96

Started Drive at: MISS 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.15 - -0.75 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.75)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.6%

Win Probability (After): 23.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:18 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 14 at MISS 4) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 18 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 0 1.78 22.8% 4.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 78

Started Drive at: MISS 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.59 - -1.19 = 1.78

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.19)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.8%

Win Probability (After): 27.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:02 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at MISS 22) Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 23 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.52 27.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 77

Started Drive at: MISS 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.10 - 0.62 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.38)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.0%

Win Probability (After): 26.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:55 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 9 at MISS 23) Luke Altmyer sacked by TEAM for a loss of 10 yards to the Miss 13 OLE MISS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Luke Altmyer) to the Miss 13 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -1.46 26.6% -4.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 87

Started Drive at: MISS 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.36 - 0.16 = -1.46

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.90)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.6%

Win Probability (After): 22.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:25 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 19 at MISS 13) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 2 yds to the Miss 15 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.74 22.2% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 85

Started Drive at: MISS 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.00 - -1.26 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.26)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.2%

Win Probability (After): 19.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:31 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 17 at MISS 15) Mac Brown punt for 51 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for 12 yds to the Miss 27 OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Ashanti Cistrunk) to the Miss 39 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.82 19.0% 0.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 39

Started Drive at: MISS 8

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.82 - -1.63 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.00)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.82)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.0%

Win Probability (After): 19.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:15 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at MISS 39) Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.33 80.8% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39

Started Drive at: MISS 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.25 - 2.58 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.58)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.8%

Win Probability (After): 80.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:00 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 10 at MISS 39) Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Miss 38 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.55 80.3% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 38

Started Drive at: MISS 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - 2.18 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.18)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.3%

Win Probability (After): 79.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:37 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 9 at MISS 38) Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.88 79.3% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 38

Started Drive at: MISS 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.61 - 1.49 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.49)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.3%

Win Probability (After): 77.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:31 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 9 at MISS 38) Issac Power punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 16 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.90 77.3% -3.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 84

Started Drive at: MISS 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.28 - 0.63 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.63)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.72)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.3%

Win Probability (After): 74.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:30 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at MISS 16) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 7 yds to the Miss 23 - BAY 7, MISS 0 0.31 25.9% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 77

Started Drive at: MISS 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.47 - 0.16 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.84)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.9%

Win Probability (After): 26.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:19 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 3 at MISS 23) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.60 26.4% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77

Started Drive at: MISS 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.09 - 0.52 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.48)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.4%

Win Probability (After): 25.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:15 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 3 at MISS 23) Luke Altmyer run for 2 yds to the Miss 25 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.67 25.5% -3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 75

Started Drive at: MISS 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.52 - 0.15 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.85)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.5%

Win Probability (After): 22.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:10 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 1 at MISS 25) Timeout BAYLOR, clock 01:10 - BAY 7, MISS 0 0.00 22.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: MISS 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.52 - -0.52 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.52)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.8%

Win Probability (After): 22.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:55 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 1 at MISS 25) Mac Brown punt for 58 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for 7 yds to the Bayl 32 BAYLOR Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Bayl 14 - BAY 7, MISS 0 0.05 23.2% 0.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 86

Started Drive at: MISS 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.41 - -0.41 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.46)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.41)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.2%

Win Probability (After): 23.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:46 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 14) Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Bayl 16 - BAY 7, MISS 0 0.00 76.8% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 84

Started Drive at: BAY 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.27 - 0.27 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.27)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.8%

Win Probability (After): 76.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:08 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 8 at BAY 16) Timeout BAYLOR, clock 00:08 - BAY 7, MISS 0 0.00 76.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 84

Started Drive at: BAY 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.27 - 0.27 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.27)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.8%

Win Probability (After): 76.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:02 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 8 at BAY 16) Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 23 - BAY 7, MISS 0 0.07 75.0% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 77

Started Drive at: BAY 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.12 - 0.05 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.05)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.0%

Win Probability (After): 75.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:01 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 1 at BAY 23) Abram Smith run for 23 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.05 75.2% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 54

Started Drive at: BAY 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.26 - 0.05 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.05)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.2%

Win Probability (After): 76.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 239 (Kickoff at BAY 35) Mac Brown kickoff for 64 yds , Jalen Pitre return for 27 yds to the OLEMISS 38 OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 33 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.54 76.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 67

Started Drive at: BAY 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 2.01 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.50)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.3%

Win Probability (After): 76.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:51 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 33) Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 -1.15 78.9% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: BAY 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.85 - 3.00 = -1.15

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.00)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.9%

Win Probability (After): 75.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:42 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 10 at BAY 33) Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the Bayl 38 - BAY 7, MISS 0 0.38 76.6% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 62

Started Drive at: BAY 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 1.97 = 0.38

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.97)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.6%

Win Probability (After): 77.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:10 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 5 at BAY 38) Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 -1.62 77.4% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: BAY 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - 1.83 = -1.62

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.83)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.4%

Win Probability (After): 75.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:02 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 5 at BAY 38) Issac Power punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 14 - BAY 7, MISS 0 0.41 75.7% -4.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 86

Started Drive at: BAY 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - 0.24 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.24)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.65)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.7%

Win Probability (After): 71.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 13:55 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at MISS 14) Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 15 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.60 27.9% -1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 85

Started Drive at: MISS 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.27 - -0.68 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.68)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.9%

Win Probability (After): 26.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:35 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 9 at MISS 15) Luke Altmyer run for 12 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 0 1.49 26.3% 2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 73

Started Drive at: MISS 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - -1.29 = 1.49

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.29)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.3%

Win Probability (After): 29.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:16 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at MISS 27) Luke Altmyer sacked by Terrel Bernard for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 23 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -1.55 28.1% -2.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 77

Started Drive at: MISS 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.34 - 0.21 = -1.55

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.79)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.1%

Win Probability (After): 25.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:34 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 14 at MISS 23) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.99 25.1% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77

Started Drive at: MISS 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.27 - -1.29 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.29)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.1%

Win Probability (After): 23.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:27 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 14 at MISS 23) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.87 22.9% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77

Started Drive at: MISS 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.13 - -2.26 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.26)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-10.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.9%

Win Probability (After): 20.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:17 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 14 at MISS 23) Mac Brown punt for 45 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for 8 yds to the Bayl 40 - BAY 7, MISS 0 0.04 21.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 60

Started Drive at: MISS 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.11 - -3.15 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-10.15)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.11)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.2%

Win Probability (After): 20.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 12:15 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 40) Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 41 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.50 79.6% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 59

Started Drive at: BAY 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.56 - 3.06 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.06)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.6%

Win Probability (After): 79.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:35 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 9 at BAY 41) OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Deane Leonard) to the Miss 44 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 0 1.30 80.0% 0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 44

Started Drive at: BAY 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.83 - 2.53 = 1.30

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.53)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.0%

Win Probability (After): 80.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:27 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at MISS 44) Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.57 80.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: BAY 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.23 - 3.80 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.80)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.6%

Win Probability (After): 80.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:21 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 10 at MISS 44) Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 -1.04 80.2% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: BAY 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.21 - 3.24 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.24)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.2%

Win Probability (After): 79.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:15 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 10 at MISS 44) Gerry Bohanon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 45 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -2.05 79.0% -3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 45

Started Drive at: BAY 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.23 - 2.28 = -2.05

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.28)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.0%

Win Probability (After): 75.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:01 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 11 at MISS 45) Issac Power punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 28 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.53 75.1% -4.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 72

Started Drive at: BAY 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.22 - 0.31 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.31)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.78)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.1%

Win Probability (After): 71.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 11:00 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at MISS 28) BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kalon Barnes) to the Miss 43 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 0 1.13 28.9% 2.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 57

Started Drive at: MISS 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.37 - 0.24 = 1.13

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.76)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.9%

Win Probability (After): 30.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:43 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at MISS 43) Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Miss 47 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.20 30.3% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 53

Started Drive at: MISS 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 1.47 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.53)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.3%

Win Probability (After): 30.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:25 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 6 at MISS 47) Luke Altmyer run for 1 yd to the Miss 48 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.75 30.5% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 52

Started Drive at: MISS 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - 1.34 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.66)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.5%

Win Probability (After): 28.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:10 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 5 at MISS 48) Snoop Conner run for 6 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 0 1.76 27.6% 4.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 46

Started Drive at: MISS 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 0.51 = 1.76

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.49)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.6%

Win Probability (After): 31.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:55 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at BAY 46) Snoop Conner run for 6 yds to the Bayl 40 - BAY 7, MISS 0 0.27 31.8% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 40

Started Drive at: MISS 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 2.29 = 0.27

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.71)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.8%

Win Probability (After): 32.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:32 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 4 at BAY 40) Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -0.23 33.0% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 37

Started Drive at: MISS 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.51 - 2.74 = -0.23

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.26)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.0%

Win Probability (After): 31.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:13 ESPN team id 239 (Kickoff at BAY 35) Mac Brown kickoff for 62 yds , Tyquan Thornton return for 18 yds to the Bayl 21 - BAY 7, MISS 0 -1.18 76.4% -1.3%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 79

Started Drive at: BAY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 2.13 = -1.18

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.13)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.4%

Win Probability (After): 75.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:13 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 1 at BAY 37) Braylon Sanders 37 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (Cale Nation Kick) - BAY 7, MISS 7 4.47 32.8% 16.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99

Started Drive at: MISS 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.53 = 4.47

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.47)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.8%

Win Probability (After): 49.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:00 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 21) Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 22 - BAY 7, MISS 7 -0.70 53.4% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 78

Started Drive at: BAY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.17 - 0.87 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.87)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.4%

Win Probability (After): 51.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:30 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 9 at BAY 22) Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 29 - BAY 7, MISS 7 0.47 50.9% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 71

Started Drive at: BAY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.62 - 0.15 = 0.47

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.15)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.9%

Win Probability (After): 51.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:50 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 2 at BAY 29) Abram Smith run for 9 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 1.58 50.8% 5.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 62

Started Drive at: BAY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.05 - 0.46 = 1.58

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.46)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.8%

Win Probability (After): 56.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:20 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 38) Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Bayl 38 - BAY 7, MISS 7 -0.67 56.2% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: BAY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.39 - 2.06 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.06)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.2%

Win Probability (After): 54.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:51 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 10 at BAY 38) Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 9 yds to the Bayl 47 - BAY 7, MISS 7 0.73 54.3% 1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 53

Started Drive at: BAY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.15 - 1.41 = 0.73

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.41)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.3%

Win Probability (After): 56.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:51 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 1 at BAY 47) Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 0.68 56.3% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 50

Started Drive at: BAY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 2.14 = 0.68

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.3%

Win Probability (After): 57.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:22 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at 50) Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 7 -0.67 59.1% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: BAY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.14 - 2.82 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.82)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.1%

Win Probability (After): 56.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:15 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 10 at 50) Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drake Dabney for 8 yds to the Miss 42 - BAY 7, MISS 7 0.44 57.4% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 42

Started Drive at: BAY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 2.15 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.15)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.4%

Win Probability (After): 58.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:36 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 2 at MISS 42) Dillon Doyle run for 3 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 1.01 59.0% 3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 39

Started Drive at: BAY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.59 - 2.58 = 1.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.58)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.0%

Win Probability (After): 62.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:59 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at MISS 39) Abram Smith run for 9 yds to the Miss 30 - BAY 7, MISS 7 0.82 61.3% 2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 30

Started Drive at: BAY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.42 - 3.60 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.60)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.3%

Win Probability (After): 63.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:19 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 1 at MISS 30) Gerry Bohanon pass intercepted Miles Battle return for 9 yds to the Miss 9 - BAY 7, MISS 7 -4.52 61.6% -11.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 91

Started Drive at: BAY 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.11 - 4.41 = -4.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.41)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.11)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.6%

Win Probability (After): 50.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:15 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at MISS 9) Dontario Drummond run for 1 yd to the Miss 10 - BAY 7, MISS 7 -0.85 50.0% -4.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 90

Started Drive at: MISS 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.72 - 0.13 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.13)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.0%

Win Probability (After): 45.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:01 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 9 at MISS 10) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Snoop Conner for 2 yds to the Miss 12 - BAY 7, MISS 7 -0.64 46.1% -4.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 88

Started Drive at: MISS 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.37 - -0.73 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.73)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.1%

Win Probability (After): 42.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:22 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 7 at MISS 12) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 29 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 3.62 40.9% 15.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 59

Started Drive at: MISS 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.25 - -1.37 = 3.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.9%

Win Probability (After): 56.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:01 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at MISS 41) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Snoop Conner for no gain to the Miss 41 - BAY 7, MISS 7 -0.66 55.2% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59

Started Drive at: MISS 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.62 - 2.27 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.27)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.2%

Win Probability (After): 54.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:37 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 10 at MISS 41) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 15 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 1.61 53.6% 5.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 44

Started Drive at: MISS 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 1.68 = 1.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.68)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.6%

Win Probability (After): 58.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:14 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at BAY 44) Luke Altmyer sacked by Al Walcott for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 45 - BAY 7, MISS 7 -1.15 57.8% -2.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 45

Started Drive at: MISS 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.16 - 3.31 = -1.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.31)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.8%

Win Probability (After): 55.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:50 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 11 at BAY 45) Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Bayl 45 - BAY 7, MISS 7 -1.03 54.9% -3.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45

Started Drive at: MISS 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 2.16 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.9%

Win Probability (After): 51.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:20 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 11 at BAY 45) Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Bayl 41 - BAY 7, MISS 7 -1.12 51.3% -5.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 41

Started Drive at: MISS 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.03 - 1.15 = -1.12

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.15)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.3%

Win Probability (After): 46.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:01 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 7 at BAY 41) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 18 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 4.47 46.2% 14.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 23

Started Drive at: MISS 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - 0.05 = 4.47

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.2%

Win Probability (After): 60.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:55 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at BAY 23) Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Bayl 23 - BAY 7, MISS 7 -0.58 61.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: MISS 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 4.51 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.51)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.1%

Win Probability (After): 60.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:25 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 10 at BAY 23) Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 22 - BAY 7, MISS 7 -0.56 60.7% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 22

Started Drive at: MISS 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.36 - 3.93 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.93)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.7%

Win Probability (After): 58.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:45 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 9 at BAY 22) Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the Bayl 17 - BAY 7, MISS 7 -0.63 58.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 17

Started Drive at: MISS 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.70 - 3.33 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.33)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.8%

Win Probability (After): 58.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:09 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 4 at BAY 17) Cale Nation 35 yd FG MISSED - BAY 7, MISS 7 -3.55 59.5% -14.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 80

Started Drive at: MISS 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.85 - 2.70 = -3.55

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.70)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.85)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.5%

Win Probability (After): 45.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 13:01 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 20) Abram Smith run for 11 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 0.94 55.3% 2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 69

Started Drive at: BAY 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 0.90 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.90)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.3%

Win Probability (After): 57.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 12:30 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 31) Gerry Bohanon run for 4 yds to the Bayl 35 - BAY 7, MISS 7 -0.15 57.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 65

Started Drive at: BAY 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.66 - 1.81 = -0.15

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.81)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.8%

Win Probability (After): 57.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:55 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 6 at BAY 35) Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 7 -0.98 57.5% -3.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: BAY 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - 1.77 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.5%

Win Probability (After): 54.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:49 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 6 at BAY 35) Trestan Ebner run for 17 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 2.24 54.6% 8.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 48

Started Drive at: BAY 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.14 - 0.90 = 2.24

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.90)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 7, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.6%

Win Probability (After): 63.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:14 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at MISS 48) Monaray Baldwin run for 48 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 14, MISS 7 3.92 65.4% 15.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.08 = 3.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.08)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.4%

Win Probability (After): 80.6%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:14 ESPN team id 145 (Kickoff at MISS 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 14, MISS 7 0.00 21.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 0.43 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.57)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.9%

Win Probability (After): 21.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:08 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at MISS 25) Luke Altmyer sacked by Terrel Bernard for a loss of 10 yards to the Miss 15 - BAY 14, MISS 7 -1.42 21.9% -5.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 85

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.00 - 0.42 = -1.42

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.58)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, -10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.9%

Win Probability (After): 16.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:27 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 20 at MISS 15) Luke Altmyer run for 3 yds to the Miss 18 - BAY 14, MISS 7 -0.85 16.9% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 82

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.78 - -0.93 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.93)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.9%

Win Probability (After): 14.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:58 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 17 at MISS 18) Luke Altmyer pass intercepted JT Woods return for 16 yds to the Miss 15 - BAY 14, MISS 7 -3.50 14.4% -4.8%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 15

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -5.21 - -1.71 = -3.50

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.71)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.21)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 14, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.4%

Win Probability (After): 9.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:52 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at MISS 15) Gerry Bohanon run for 3 yds to the Miss 12 - BAY 14, MISS 7 -0.33 91.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 12

Started Drive at: MISS 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.84 - 5.17 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.17)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.0%

Win Probability (After): 90.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:20 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 7 at MISS 12) Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Miss 10 - BAY 14, MISS 7 -0.54 91.1% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 10

Started Drive at: MISS 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 4.83 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.83)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.1%

Win Probability (After): 89.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:40 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 5 at MISS 10) Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Abram Smith for 6 yds to the Miss 4 for a 1ST down - BAY 14, MISS 7 1.93 91.2% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 4

Started Drive at: MISS 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.12 - 4.18 = 1.93

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.18)

Score Difference (End): 7 (13.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.2%

Win Probability (After): 92.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:10 ESPN team id 239 (1st & Goal at MISS 4) Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Miss 2 - BAY 14, MISS 7 -0.07 94.4% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 2

Started Drive at: MISS 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.97 - 6.04 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): 7 (13.04)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 14, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.4%

Win Probability (After): 93.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:24 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & Goal at MISS 2) Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 2 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 21, MISS 7 1.04 93.4% 4.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: MISS 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.96 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.96)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.4%

Win Probability (After): 98.0%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:24 ESPN team id 145 (Kickoff at MISS 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 21, MISS 7 0.00 3.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.04 - 0.04 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.96)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.3%

Win Probability (After): 3.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:15 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at MISS 25) Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds to the Miss 33 - BAY 21, MISS 7 0.58 3.2% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - 0.06 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.94)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.2%

Win Probability (After): 3.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:00 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 2 at MISS 33) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 21, MISS 7 -0.77 3.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - 0.67 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.33)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.4%

Win Probability (After): 3.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:50 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 2 at MISS 33) Jerrion Ealy run for 31 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, MISS 7 3.20 3.0% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 36

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.07 - -0.14 = 3.20

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.14)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.0%

Win Probability (After): 4.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:36 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at BAY 36) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 21, MISS 7 -0.68 4.9% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 3.16 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.84)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.9%

Win Probability (After): 4.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:25 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 10 at BAY 36) Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 33 - BAY 21, MISS 7 -0.56 4.4% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 33

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 2.67 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.33)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.4%

Win Probability (After): 3.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:05 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 7 at BAY 33) Luke Altmyer run for 3 yds to the Bayl 30 - BAY 21, MISS 7 -0.95 3.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 30

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 2.16 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.84)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.3%

Win Probability (After): 3.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:26 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 4 at BAY 30) Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, MISS 7 2.77 2.7% 2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 25

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.85 - 1.08 = 2.77

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.92)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.7%

Win Probability (After): 5.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:06 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at BAY 25) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 21, MISS 7 -0.66 4.5% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.29 - 3.96 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.04)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.5%

Win Probability (After): 3.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:59 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 10 at BAY 25) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 21, MISS 7 -0.70 4.0% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.72 - 3.42 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.58)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.0%

Win Probability (After): 3.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:55 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 10 at BAY 25) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 21, MISS 7 -1.44 3.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.24 - 2.67 = -1.44

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.33)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.0%

Win Probability (After): 2.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:52 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 10 at BAY 25) Luke Altmyer sacked by Bryson Jackson for a loss of 11 yards to the Bayl 36 - BAY 21, MISS 7 -3.57 2.4% -1.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 64

Started Drive at: MISS 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.35 - 1.22 = -3.57

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.78)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.35)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.4%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:49 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 36) Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 37 - BAY 21, MISS 7 -0.36 99.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 63

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 2.20 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.20)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:05 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 9 at BAY 37) Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the Bayl 42 - BAY 21, MISS 7 -0.01 99.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 58

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - 1.54 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.54)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:03 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 4 at BAY 42) Timeout OLE MISS, clock 04:03 - BAY 21, MISS 7 0.00 99.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - 1.53 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.53)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:59 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 4 at BAY 42) Trestan Ebner run for 13 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, MISS 7 1.51 99.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 45

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 1.36 = 1.51

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.36)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:56 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at MISS 45) Timeout OLE MISS, clock 03:56 - BAY 21, MISS 7 0.00 99.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 2.87 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.87)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:50 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at MISS 45) BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jacob Gall) to the Bayl 45 - BAY 21, MISS 7 -0.87 99.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 55

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.99 - 2.86 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.86)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:30 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 20 at BAY 45) Abram Smith run for 8 yds to the Miss 47 - BAY 21, MISS 7 0.07 99.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 47

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 1.86 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.86)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:23 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 12 at MISS 47) Timeout OLE MISS, clock 03:23 - BAY 21, MISS 7 0.00 99.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 1.93 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.93)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:15 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 12 at MISS 47) Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Miss 45 - BAY 21, MISS 7 -0.12 99.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 45

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 1.68 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.68)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:01 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 10 at MISS 45) Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the Miss 43 - BAY 21, MISS 7 -1.02 99.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 43

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 1.46 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.46)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:58 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 8 at MISS 43) Issac Power punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dontario Drummond at the Miss 7 - BAY 21, MISS 7 -0.34 99.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 93

Started Drive at: BAY 36

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.14 - 0.48 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.48)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.14)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:48 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at MISS 7) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 25 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, MISS 7 1.21 0.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 68

Started Drive at: MISS 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.22 - 0.01 = 1.21

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.99)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.5%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:41 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at MISS 32) Luke Altmyer run for 4 yds to the Miss 36 - BAY 21, MISS 7 -0.16 0.6% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 64

Started Drive at: MISS 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.88 - 1.04 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.96)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:33 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 6 at MISS 36) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 11 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, MISS 7 0.89 0.7% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 53

Started Drive at: MISS 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - 0.75 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.25)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:22 ESPN team id 145 (1st & 10 at MISS 47) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 5 yds to the Bayl 48 - BAY 21, MISS 7 0.12 0.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 48

Started Drive at: MISS 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.55 - 1.43 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.57)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:16 ESPN team id 145 (2nd & 5 at BAY 48) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 21, MISS 7 -0.37 0.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48

Started Drive at: MISS 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.16 - 1.54 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.46)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:02 ESPN team id 145 (3rd & 5 at BAY 48) Luke Altmyer sacked by Bryson Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 45 - BAY 21, MISS 7 -1.06 0.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 55

Started Drive at: MISS 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.00 - 1.06 = -1.06

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.94)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:38 ESPN team id 145 (4th & 12 at MISS 45) Luke Altmyer sacked by Brayden Utley for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 37 - BAY 21, MISS 7 -2.39 0.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 37

Started Drive at: MISS 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.32 - 0.07 = -2.39

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.93)

Score Difference (End): 14 (16.32)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:37 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at MISS 37) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 38 - BAY 21, MISS 7 -0.77 99.6% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 38

Started Drive at: MISS 37

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.44 - 2.21 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.21)

Score Difference (End): 14 (15.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: BAY 21, MISS 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2