Win Probability
Game Excitement Index: 5.72 | Odds: MISS -1, O/U 60.0 | Download Chart
Expected Points
Team Stats [show/hide]
| Overall |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 66 | 99 |
| Total EPA | -15.97 | -32.77 |
| Offensive EPA | -11.56 | -24.47 |
| Special Teams EPA | -2.77 | -7.57 |
| Penalty EPA | -2.18 | -3.44 |
| Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA | 0.54 | 2.71 |
| Production | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 58 | 88 |
| Yards | 328 | 434 |
| Yards/Play | 5.66 | 4.93 |
| EPA | -11.56 | -24.47 |
| EPA/Play | -0.20 | -0.28 |
| Passes | 17 (29%) | 44 (50%) |
| Yards | 40 | 184 |
| Yards/Play | 2.35 | 4.18 |
| EPA | -12.63 | -30.18 |
| EPA/Play | -0.74 | -0.69 |
| Rushes | 41 (71%) | 44 (50%) |
| Yards | 279 | 207 |
| Yards/Play | 6.80 | 4.70 |
| EPA | 1.07 | 5.71 |
| EPA/Play | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Rushing | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 58 | 88 |
| Rushes | 41 (71%) | 44 (50%) |
| Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) | 2 (5%) | 1 (2%) |
| Successful Power Runs (Rate) | 2 (100%) | 1 (100%) |
| Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) | 5 (12%) | 4 (9%) |
| Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) | 17 (41%) | 16 (36%) |
| Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) | 19 (46%) | 20 (45%) |
| OL Line Yards | 75.6 | 92.5 |
| Per Carry | 1.84 | 2.10 |
| Highlight Yards | 128 | 52 |
| Per Rush Opportunity | 6.74 | 2.60 |
| Explosiveness | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 66 | 99 |
| Scrimmage Plays | 58 | 88 |
| Explosive Plays | 3 (5%) | 9 (10%) |
| When Passing (EPA > 2.4) | 0 (0%) | 3 (7%) |
| When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) | 3 (7%) | 6 (14%) |
| EPA w/o Explosive Plays | -20.53 | -53.98 |
| EPA/Play | -0.37 | -0.68 |
| When Passing | -12.63 | -42.75 |
| EPA/Play | -0.74 | -0.97 |
| When Rushing | -7.90 | -11.23 |
| EPA/Play | -0.21 | -0.30 |
| Situational | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Successful Plays (EPA > 0) | 24 (41%) | 25 (28%) |
| When Passing | 5 (29%) | 10 (23%) |
| When Rushing | 19 (46%) | 15 (34%) |
| On Standard Downs | 16 (42%) | 17 (35%) |
| On Passing Downs | 8 (40%) | 8 (20%) |
| On Early Downs | 18 (44%) | 14 (24%) |
| On Late Downs | 6 (35%) | 11 (38%) |
| During "Middle 8" | 3 (23%) | 2 (20%) |
| Early Downs | 41 | 59 |
| First Downs Created | 3 (7%) | 8 (14%) |
| EPA | -2.99 | -23.63 |
| EPA/Play | -0.07 | -0.40 |
| Passes | 12 (29%) | 30 (51%) |
| Rushes | 29 (71%) | 29 (49%) |
| Successful Passes (Rate) | 4 (33%) | 7 (23%) |
| Successful Rushes (Rate) | 14 (48%) | 7 (24%) |
| "Middle 8" Plays | 13 | 10 |
| EPA | -8.28 | -5.68 |
| EPA/play | -0.64 | -0.57 |
| Passes | 6 (46%) | 7 (70%) |
| Rushes | 7 (54%) | 3 (30%) |
| Successful Passes (Rate) | 0 (0%) | 1 (14%) |
| Successful Rushes (Rate) | 3 (43%) | 1 (33%) |
| Drives | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total | 13 | 13 |
| Avg Starting Field Position | Own 32 | Own 26 |
| Plays/Drive | 5.59 | 8.83 |
| Yards/Drive | 28.93 | 33.52 |
| Available Yards % | 43% | 45% |
| Defensive | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 88 | 58 |
| Stop Rate | 48% | 57% |
| Havoc Plays Created | 13 (15%) | 3 (5%) |
| Passing | 13 (30%) | 1 (6%) |
| Rushing | 0 (0%) | 2 (5%) |
| TFLs Generated | 10 | 2 |
| Passing | 10 | 0 |
| Rushing | 0 | 2 |
| Sacks Generated | 10 (23%) | 0 (0%) |
| Passes Defensed | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 3 | 1 |
| Fumbles Forced | 0 | 0 |
| Turnovers | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 2 | 5 |
| Fumbles | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles Lost | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles Recovered | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 1 | 3 |
| Turnover Margin | 3 | -3 |
| Expected Turnovers | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| Expected Turnover Margin | 0.4 | -0.4 |
| Turnover Luck (pts) | 12.8 | -12.8 |
| Special Teams | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 8 | 11 |
| Total EPA | -2.77 | -7.57 |
| Field Goal EPA | 0 | -6.45 |
| Punting EPA | -1.05 | -0.03 |
| Kickoff Return EPA | -1.72 | -1.1 |
Baylor [show/hide]
| Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | |||||||
| Gerry Bohanon | 7/17, 40 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 0 Scks, 11.5 xQBR | 2.35 | -0.74 | -12.63 | 29% | -31.0% | |
| Rush attempts | |||||||
| Monaray Baldwin | 1 carry, 48 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 48.00 | 3.92 | 3.92 | 100% | 15.0% | |
| Dillon Doyle | 1 carry, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 3.00 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 100% | 3.0% | |
| Abram Smith | 25 carries, 172 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) | 6.88 | 0.02 | 0.57 | 52% | 3.0% | |
| Trestan Ebner | 6 carries, 36 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.00 | 0.03 | 0.20 | 33% | 3.0% | |
| Drew Estrada | 1 carry, 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 1.00 | -0.74 | -0.74 | 0% | -1.0% | |
| TEAM | 1 carry, -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | -1.00 | -0.77 | -0.77 | 0% | 0.0% | |
| Gerry Bohanon | 6 carries, 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 3.33 | -0.52 | -3.12 | 33% | -6.0% | |
| Pass targets | |||||||
| Abram Smith | 1 catch (1 target), 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.00 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 100% | 2.0% | |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 catch (1 target), 2 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 2.00 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 100% | 5.0% | |
| Drake Dabney | 1 catch (1 target), 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 8.00 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 100% | 1.0% | |
| Drew Estrada | 2 catches (2 targets), 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 7.00 | -0.05 | -0.10 | 50% | -2.0% | |
| R.J. Sneed | 2 catches (2 targets), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 5.00 | -1.11 | -2.23 | 50% | -6.0% | |
Ole Miss [show/hide]
| Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | |||||||
| Matt Corral | 2/6, 10 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 3 Scks, 37.5 xQBR | 1.11 | -1.00 | -9.01 | 11% | -25.0% | |
| Luke Altmyer | 15/28, 174 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 7 Scks, 24.3 xQBR | 4.97 | -0.60 | -21.17 | 26% | -21.0% | |
| Rush attempts | |||||||
| Matt Corral | 4 carries, 35 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 8.75 | 1.86 | 7.44 | 75% | 21.0% | |
| Jerrion Ealy | 12 carries, 65 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 5.42 | 0.21 | 2.47 | 33% | -12.0% | |
| Dontario Drummond | 3 carries, 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 5.33 | 0.27 | 0.80 | 67% | 1.0% | |
| Luke Altmyer | 10 carries, 38 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 3.80 | -0.09 | -0.93 | 20% | 1.0% | |
| Snoop Conner | 11 carries, 42 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 3.82 | -0.09 | -1.03 | 27% | 1.0% | |
| Henry Parrish Jr. | 4 carries, 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 2.75 | -0.76 | -3.05 | 25% | -12.0% | |
| Pass targets | |||||||
| Dontario Drummond | 9 catches (9 targets), 104 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 11.56 | 1.09 | 9.83 | 78% | 24.0% | |
| Braylon Sanders | 1 catch (1 target), 37 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 37.00 | 4.47 | 4.47 | 100% | 16.0% | |
| Jonathan Mingo | 2 catches (2 targets), 33 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 16.50 | 1.70 | 3.39 | 100% | 9.0% | |
| Henry Parrish Jr. | 1 catch (1 target), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 4.00 | -0.04 | -0.04 | 0% | 0.0% | |
| Snoop Conner | 2 catches (2 targets), 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 1.00 | -0.65 | -1.30 | 0% | -5.0% | |
| Jerrion Ealy | 2 catches (2 targets), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 2.00 | -0.83 | -1.66 | 0% | -6.0% | |
Big Plays [show/hide]
As determined by absolute EPA.
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 10:16 | |
(3rd & 7 at BAY 12) Luke Altmyer pass intercepted for a TD Al Walcott return for 96 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -10.79 | 55.5% | -29.5% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.79 = -10.79 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.79) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 124 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.5% Win Probability (After): 26.0% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 3:19 | |
(2nd & 1 at MISS 30) Gerry Bohanon pass intercepted Miles Battle return for 9 yds to the Miss 9 - BAY 7, MISS 7 | -4.52 | 61.6% | -11.6% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 91 Started Drive at: BAY 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.11 - 4.41 = -4.52 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.41) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.11) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 58 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.6% Win Probability (After): 50.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:01 | |
(4th & 7 at BAY 41) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 18 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 4.47 | 46.2% | 14.6% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 23 Started Drive at: MISS 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - 0.05 = 4.47 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.05) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.52) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 68 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.2% Win Probability (After): 60.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 9:13 | |
(3rd & 1 at BAY 37) Braylon Sanders 37 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (Cale Nation Kick) - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 4.47 | 32.8% | 16.4% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99 Started Drive at: MISS 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.53 = 4.47 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.47) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 57 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.8% Win Probability (After): 49.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 3:50 | |
(4th & 5 at BAY 42) Matt Corral run for 15 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, MISS 0 | 4.40 | 43.7% | 11.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 27 Started Drive at: MISS 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - -0.06 = 4.40 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.06) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.34) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 43.7% Win Probability (After): 54.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 11:14 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 48) Monaray Baldwin run for 48 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 14, MISS 7 | 3.92 | 65.4% | 15.3% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.08 = 3.92 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.08) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 14, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.4% Win Probability (After): 80.6% Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 2:22 | |
(3rd & 7 at MISS 12) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 29 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 3.62 | 40.9% | 15.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 59 Started Drive at: MISS 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.25 - -1.37 = 3.62 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.37) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.25) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.9% Win Probability (After): 56.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 4:52 | |
(4th & 10 at BAY 25) Luke Altmyer sacked by Bryson Jackson for a loss of 11 yards to the Bayl 36 - BAY 21, MISS 7 | -3.57 | 2.4% | -1.7% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 64 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.35 - 1.22 = -3.57 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.78) Score Difference (End): 14 (16.35) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.4% Win Probability (After): 0.7% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 13:09 | |
(4th & 4 at BAY 17) Cale Nation 35 yd FG MISSED - BAY 7, MISS 7 | -3.55 | 59.5% | -14.5% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Missed Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 80 Started Drive at: MISS 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.85 - 2.70 = -3.55 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.70) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.85) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.5% Win Probability (After): 45.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 9:58 | |
(3rd & 17 at MISS 18) Luke Altmyer pass intercepted JT Woods return for 16 yds to the Miss 15 - BAY 14, MISS 7 | -3.50 | 14.4% | -4.8% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 15 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -5.21 - -1.71 = -3.50 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.71) Score Difference (End): 7 (12.21) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 14, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.4% Win Probability (After): 9.7% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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Most Important Plays [show/hide]
As determined by absolute WPA.
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 10:16 | |
(3rd & 7 at BAY 12) Luke Altmyer pass intercepted for a TD Al Walcott return for 96 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -10.79 | 55.5% | -29.5% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.79 = -10.79 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.79) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 124 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.5% Win Probability (After): 26.0% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 9:13 | |
(3rd & 1 at BAY 37) Braylon Sanders 37 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (Cale Nation Kick) - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 4.47 | 32.8% | 16.4% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99 Started Drive at: MISS 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.53 = 4.47 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.47) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 57 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.8% Win Probability (After): 49.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 2:22 | |
(3rd & 7 at MISS 12) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 29 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 3.62 | 40.9% | 15.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 59 Started Drive at: MISS 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.25 - -1.37 = 3.62 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.37) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.25) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.9% Win Probability (After): 56.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 11:14 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 48) Monaray Baldwin run for 48 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 14, MISS 7 | 3.92 | 65.4% | 15.3% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.08 = 3.92 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.08) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 14, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.4% Win Probability (After): 80.6% Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:01 | |
(4th & 7 at BAY 41) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 18 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 4.47 | 46.2% | 14.6% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 23 Started Drive at: MISS 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - 0.05 = 4.47 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.05) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.52) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 68 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.2% Win Probability (After): 60.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 13:09 | |
(4th & 4 at BAY 17) Cale Nation 35 yd FG MISSED - BAY 7, MISS 7 | -3.55 | 59.5% | -14.5% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Missed Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 80 Started Drive at: MISS 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.85 - 2.70 = -3.55 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.70) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.85) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.5% Win Probability (After): 45.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 3:19 | |
(2nd & 1 at MISS 30) Gerry Bohanon pass intercepted Miles Battle return for 9 yds to the Miss 9 - BAY 7, MISS 7 | -4.52 | 61.6% | -11.6% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 91 Started Drive at: BAY 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.11 - 4.41 = -4.52 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.41) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.11) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 58 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.6% Win Probability (After): 50.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 3:50 | |
(4th & 5 at BAY 42) Matt Corral run for 15 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, MISS 0 | 4.40 | 43.7% | 11.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 27 Started Drive at: MISS 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - -0.06 = 4.40 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.06) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.34) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 43.7% Win Probability (After): 54.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 11:49 | |
(3rd & 6 at BAY 35) Trestan Ebner run for 17 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 2.24 | 54.6% | 8.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 48 Started Drive at: BAY 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.14 - 0.90 = 2.24 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.90) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.14) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.6% Win Probability (After): 63.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:03 | |
(4th & 2 at BAY 46) Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 1 yd to the Bayl 47 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -2.96 | 55.5% | -7.8% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 47 Started Drive at: BAY 38 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.10 - -0.14 = -2.96 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.14) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.10) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.5% Win Probability (After): 47.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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Scoring Plays [show/hide]
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 10:16 | |
(3rd & 7 at BAY 12) Luke Altmyer pass intercepted for a TD Al Walcott return for 96 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -10.79 | 55.5% | -29.5% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.79 = -10.79 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.79) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 124 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.5% Win Probability (After): 26.0% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 9:13 | |
(3rd & 1 at BAY 37) Braylon Sanders 37 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (Cale Nation Kick) - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 4.47 | 32.8% | 16.4% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99 Started Drive at: MISS 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.53 = 4.47 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.47) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 57 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.8% Win Probability (After): 49.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 11:14 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 48) Monaray Baldwin run for 48 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 14, MISS 7 | 3.92 | 65.4% | 15.3% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.08 = 3.92 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.08) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 14, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.4% Win Probability (After): 80.6% Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 7:24 | |
(2nd & Goal at MISS 2) Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 2 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 21, MISS 7 | 1.04 | 93.4% | 4.6% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99 Started Drive at: MISS 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.96 = 1.04 Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.96) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 93.4% Win Probability (After): 98.0% Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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All Plays [show/hide]
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at MISS 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 59 yds , Jerrion Ealy return for 19 yds to the Miss 25 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -1.10 | 45.3% | -1.8% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.24 - 0.86 = -1.10 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.24) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 45.3% Win Probability (After): 43.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 14:55 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 25) Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Miss 25 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.72 | 45.8% | -2.5% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - 0.94 = -0.72 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.94) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.22) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 45.8% Win Probability (After): 43.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 14:27 | |
(2nd & 10 at MISS 25) Matt Corral pass intercepted JT Woods return for no gain to the Bayl 38 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -2.37 | 45.0% | -7.0% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 62 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.98 - 0.39 = -2.37 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.39) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.98) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 45.0% Win Probability (After): 38.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 14:00 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 38) Abram Smith run for no gain to the Bayl 38 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.73 | 61.9% | -1.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62 Started Drive at: BAY 38 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.39 - 2.11 = -0.73 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.11) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.9% Win Probability (After): 60.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:41 | |
(2nd & 10 at BAY 38) Abram Smith run for 8 yds to the Bayl 46 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | 0.43 | 59.4% | 1.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 54 Started Drive at: BAY 38 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 1.39 = 0.43 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.39) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.82) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.4% Win Probability (After): 61.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:08 | |
(3rd & 2 at BAY 46) Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -1.97 | 60.5% | -4.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54 Started Drive at: BAY 38 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - 1.77 = -1.97 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.77) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.19) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.5% Win Probability (After): 56.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:08 | |
(4th & 2 at BAY 46) Timeout OLE MISS, clock 13:08 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | 0.00 | 55.8% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54 Started Drive at: BAY 38 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - -0.19 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.19) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.19) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.8% Win Probability (After): 55.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 13:03 | |
(4th & 2 at BAY 46) Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 1 yd to the Bayl 47 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -2.96 | 55.5% | -7.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 47 Started Drive at: BAY 38 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.10 - -0.14 = -2.96 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.14) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.10) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.5% Win Probability (After): 47.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 13:00 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 47) Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 8 yds to the Bayl 39 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | 0.69 | 52.5% | 0.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 39 Started Drive at: BAY 47 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.81 - 3.12 = 0.69 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.12) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.81) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.5% Win Probability (After): 53.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 12:34 | |
(2nd & 2 at BAY 39) Dontario Drummond run for 5 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, MISS 0 | 0.07 | 52.6% | 1.0% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 34 Started Drive at: BAY 47 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.87 - 3.80 = 0.07 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.80) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.87) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.6% Win Probability (After): 53.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 12:30 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 34) Matt Corral sacked by Garmon Randolph for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 41 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -1.62 | 53.2% | -3.4% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 41 Started Drive at: BAY 47 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.26 - 3.88 = -1.62 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.88) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.26) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.2% Win Probability (After): 49.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 11:43 | |
(2nd & 17 at BAY 41) Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Bayl 38 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.87 | 49.7% | -3.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 38 Started Drive at: BAY 47 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.31 - 2.19 = -0.87 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.19) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.31) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.7% Win Probability (After): 46.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 11:11 | |
(3rd & 14 at BAY 38) Matt Corral pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 2 yds to the Bayl 36 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.92 | 46.7% | -3.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 36 Started Drive at: BAY 47 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.25 - 1.17 = -0.92 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.17) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.25) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.7% Win Probability (After): 43.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 11:11 | |
(4th & 12 at BAY 36) OLE MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 41 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.64 | 42.7% | -0.1% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 41 Started Drive at: BAY 47 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.43 - 0.21 = -0.64 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.21) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 42.7% Win Probability (After): 42.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 10:15 | |
(4th & 17 at BAY 41) Mac Brown punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Trestan Ebner at the Bayl 8 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | 0.33 | 42.2% | 4.2% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 92 Started Drive at: BAY 47 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - -0.13 = 0.33 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.13) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.20) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 42.2% Win Probability (After): 46.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 10:10 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 8) Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 15 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | 0.78 | 52.6% | 2.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 85 Started Drive at: BAY 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.68 - -0.10 = 0.78 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.10) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.68) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.6% Win Probability (After): 55.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 9:30 | |
(2nd & 3 at BAY 15) Gerry Bohanon run for 5 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, MISS 0 | 0.28 | 55.0% | 0.2% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 80 Started Drive at: BAY 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.84 - 0.56 = 0.28 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.56) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.84) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.0% Win Probability (After): 55.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 8:48 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 20) BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Khalil Keith) to the Bayl 10 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -1.05 | 57.6% | -5.7% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 90 Started Drive at: BAY 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.31 - 0.74 = -1.05 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.74) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.31) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 57.6% Win Probability (After): 51.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 8:33 | |
(1st & 20 at BAY 10) Abram Smith run for 8 yds to the Bayl 18 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | 0.02 | 54.0% | 0.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 82 Started Drive at: BAY 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.37 - -0.39 = 0.02 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.39) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.37) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.0% Win Probability (After): 54.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 8:05 | |
(2nd & 12 at BAY 18) Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 4 yds to the Bayl 22 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.50 | 53.7% | -2.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 78 Started Drive at: BAY 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.85 - -0.36 = -0.50 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.36) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.85) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.7% Win Probability (After): 51.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 7:15 | |
(3rd & 8 at BAY 22) Gerry Bohanon run for 3 yds to the Bayl 25 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -1.07 | 51.5% | -2.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 75 Started Drive at: BAY 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.92 - -0.85 = -1.07 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.85) Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.5% Win Probability (After): 48.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 6:25 | |
(4th & 5 at BAY 25) Issac Power punt for 59 yds , Dontario Drummond returns for 15 yds to the Miss 31 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | 0.14 | 49.5% | 1.8% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69 Started Drive at: BAY 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.74 - -1.88 = 0.14 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.88) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.74) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.5% Win Probability (After): 51.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 6:20 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 31) Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Miss 33 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.72 | 48.5% | -2.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 67 Started Drive at: MISS 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 1.75 = -0.72 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.75) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.03) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 48.5% Win Probability (After): 46.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 6:03 | |
(2nd & 8 at MISS 33) Matt Corral pass incomplete - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.95 | 46.4% | -3.6% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67 Started Drive at: MISS 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.08 - 1.03 = -0.95 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.03) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.08) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.4% Win Probability (After): 42.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 6:01 | |
(3rd & 8 at MISS 33) Matt Corral run for 7 yds to the Miss 40 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.05 | 42.9% | 0.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 60 Started Drive at: MISS 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.04 - 0.09 = -0.05 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.09) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.04) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 42.9% Win Probability (After): 43.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 5:41 | |
(4th & 1 at MISS 40) Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the Miss 41 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, MISS 0 | 2.25 | 42.9% | 7.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 59 Started Drive at: MISS 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.26 - 0.01 = 2.25 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.01) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.26) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 10 yards Win Probability (Before): 42.9% Win Probability (After): 50.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 5:23 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 41) Matt Corral run for 12 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, MISS 0 | 0.84 | 50.8% | 1.0% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 47 Started Drive at: MISS 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.10 - 2.26 = 0.84 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.26) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.10) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.8% Win Probability (After): 51.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 5:20 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 47) Matt Corral pass incomplete - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.68 | 52.1% | -0.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47 Started Drive at: MISS 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 3.11 = -0.68 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.11) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.1% Win Probability (After): 51.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 4:43 | |
(2nd & 10 at BAY 47) Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the Bayl 45 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.85 | 51.9% | -3.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 45 Started Drive at: MISS 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.58 - 2.43 = -0.85 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.43) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.58) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 24 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.9% Win Probability (After): 47.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 4:26 | |
(3rd & 8 at BAY 45) Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the Bayl 42 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -1.59 | 49.2% | -5.5% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 42 Started Drive at: MISS 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 1.58 = -1.59 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.58) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.01) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.2% Win Probability (After): 43.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 3:50 | |
(4th & 5 at BAY 42) Matt Corral run for 15 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, MISS 0 | 4.40 | 43.7% | 11.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 27 Started Drive at: MISS 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - -0.06 = 4.40 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.06) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.34) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 43.7% Win Probability (After): 54.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 3:30 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 27) Snoop Conner run for 11 yds to the Bayl 16 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, MISS 0 | 0.73 | 54.9% | 2.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 16 Started Drive at: MISS 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.06 - 4.33 = 0.73 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.33) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.06) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 53 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.9% Win Probability (After): 57.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 3:30 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 16) OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Nick Broeker) to the Bayl 21 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.81 | 57.1% | -2.2% |
|
Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 21 Started Drive at: MISS 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.25 - 5.06 = -0.81 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.06) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.25) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 53 yards Win Probability (Before): 57.1% Win Probability (After): 54.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 3:11 | |
(1st & 15 at BAY 21) Matt Corral pass incomplete - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.64 | 54.8% | -0.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21 Started Drive at: MISS 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.62 - 4.25 = -0.64 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.25) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.62) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 53 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.8% Win Probability (After): 53.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 2:54 | |
(2nd & 15 at BAY 21) Matt Corral sacked by Jalen Pitre and Siaki Ika for a loss of 5 yards to the Bayl 26 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -1.16 | 54.0% | -3.0% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 26 Started Drive at: MISS 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 3.63 = -1.16 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.63) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 48 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.0% Win Probability (After): 51.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 2:13 | |
(3rd & 20 at BAY 26) Matt Corral sacked by Cole Maxwell for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 32 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -1.36 | 50.8% | -3.4% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 32 Started Drive at: MISS 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 2.48 = -1.36 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.48) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.12) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.8% Win Probability (After): 47.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 1:48 | |
(4th & 26 at BAY 32) Cale Nation 49 yd FG MISSED - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -2.90 | 46.9% | -6.5% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Missed Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 68 Started Drive at: MISS 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.75 - 1.15 = -2.90 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.15) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.75) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.9% Win Probability (After): 40.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 1:43 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 32) Gerry Bohanon run for 6 yds to the Bayl 38 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | 0.19 | 59.6% | 0.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 62 Started Drive at: BAY 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 1.76 = 0.19 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.76) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.95) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.6% Win Probability (After): 60.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 1:06 | |
(2nd & 4 at BAY 38) Trestan Ebner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 39 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.80 | 60.5% | -2.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 61 Started Drive at: BAY 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 2.00 = -0.80 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.00) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.20) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.5% Win Probability (After): 57.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 0:23 | |
(3rd & 3 at BAY 39) Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 40 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -1.56 | 57.4% | -3.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 60 Started Drive at: BAY 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - 1.21 = -1.56 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.21) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 57.4% Win Probability (After): 54.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 14:55 | |
(4th & 2 at BAY 40) Abram Smith run for no gain to the Bayl 40 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -3.29 | 52.3% | -5.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 40 Started Drive at: BAY 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.60 - -0.31 = -3.29 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.31) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.60) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.3% Win Probability (After): 47.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 14:30 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 40) Jerrion Ealy run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.48 | 54.8% | -2.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 37 Started Drive at: BAY 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.15 - 3.64 = -0.48 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.64) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.15) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.8% Win Probability (After): 51.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 14:19 | |
(2nd & 7 at BAY 37) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 1 yd to the Bayl 36 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.67 | 54.6% | -1.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 36 Started Drive at: BAY 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.51 - 3.18 = -0.67 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.18) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.51) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.6% Win Probability (After): 52.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 13:52 | |
(3rd & 6 at BAY 36) Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds to the Bayl 28 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, MISS 0 | 1.82 | 53.1% | 3.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 28 Started Drive at: BAY 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.32 - 2.50 = 1.82 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.50) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.32) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.1% Win Probability (After): 56.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 13:29 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 28) Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Bayl 27 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.56 | 56.3% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 27 Started Drive at: BAY 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.76 - 4.32 = -0.56 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.32) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.76) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.3% Win Probability (After): 55.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 12:55 | |
(2nd & 9 at BAY 27) Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 26 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.77 | 54.0% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 26 Started Drive at: BAY 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.01 - 3.78 = -0.77 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.78) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.01) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.0% Win Probability (After): 53.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 12:25 | |
(3rd & 8 at BAY 26) Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Bayl 22 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.57 | 51.8% | 0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 22 Started Drive at: BAY 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 3.05 = -0.57 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.05) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 18 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.8% Win Probability (After): 51.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 11:53 | |
(4th & 4 at BAY 22) Luke Altmyer run for 7 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, MISS 0 | 2.51 | 49.8% | 7.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 15 Started Drive at: BAY 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.01 - 2.50 = 2.51 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.50) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.01) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.8% Win Probability (After): 56.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 11:33 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 15) Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 12 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.30 | 55.6% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 12 Started Drive at: BAY 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.67 - 4.98 = -0.30 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.98) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.67) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 28 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.6% Win Probability (After): 55.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 11:08 | |
(2nd & 7 at BAY 12) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for no gain to the Bayl 12 - BAY 0, MISS 0 | -0.81 | 58.4% | -6.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 12 Started Drive at: BAY 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 4.60 = -0.81 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.60) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.79) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 28 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.4% Win Probability (After): 52.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:16 | |
(3rd & 7 at BAY 12) Luke Altmyer pass intercepted for a TD Al Walcott return for 96 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -10.79 | 55.5% | -29.5% |
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Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.79 = -10.79 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.79) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 124 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.5% Win Probability (After): 26.0% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 10:16 | |
(Kickoff at MISS 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 0.00 | 26.9% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - 0.58 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.42) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.42) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.9% Win Probability (After): 26.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:09 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 25) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for 4 yds to the Miss 29 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.04 | 26.9% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 0.61 = -0.04 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.39) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.44) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.9% Win Probability (After): 26.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 9:50 | |
(2nd & 6 at MISS 29) Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the Miss 33 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 0.10 | 26.7% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 67 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - 0.55 = 0.10 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.45) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.7% Win Probability (After): 26.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 9:21 | |
(3rd & 2 at MISS 33) Dontario Drummond run for 10 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 1.58 | 25.5% | 4.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 57 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 0.45 = 1.58 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.55) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.5% Win Probability (After): 29.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 8:54 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 43) Luke Altmyer run for 1 yd to the Miss 44 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.35 | 28.6% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 56 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.52 - 1.88 = -0.35 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.12) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.6% Win Probability (After): 27.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 8:25 | |
(2nd & 9 at MISS 44) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.65 | 28.0% | -1.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.68 - 1.33 = -0.65 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.67) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.32) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.0% Win Probability (After): 26.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 8:20 | |
(3rd & 9 at MISS 44) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -1.46 | 26.3% | -1.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.83 - 0.63 = -1.46 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.37) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.3% Win Probability (After): 24.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 8:12 | |
(4th & 9 at MISS 44) Mac Brown punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 5 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 0.38 | 24.1% | 2.0% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 95 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.38 - -0.76 = 0.38 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.76) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.38) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 24.1% Win Probability (After): 26.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 8:00 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 5) Abram Smith run for 49 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 2.81 | 74.3% | 3.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 95 -> 46 Started Drive at: BAY 5 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.26 - 0.45 = 2.81 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.45) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.26) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 49 yards Win Probability (Before): 74.3% Win Probability (After): 77.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 7:35 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 46) BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Khalil Keith) to the Bayl 44 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -1.03 | 78.5% | -1.6% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 56 Started Drive at: BAY 5 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.23 - 3.26 = -1.03 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.26) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.23) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 49 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.5% Win Probability (After): 76.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 7:00 | |
(1st & 20 at BAY 44) Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drew Estrada for 10 yds to the Miss 46 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 0.40 | 77.8% | 0.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 46 Started Drive at: BAY 5 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - 2.34 = 0.40 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.34) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.74) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 59 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.8% Win Probability (After): 78.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 6:36 | |
(2nd & 10 at MISS 46) Drew Estrada run for 1 yd to the Miss 45 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.74 | 78.7% | -1.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 45 Started Drive at: BAY 5 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.05 - 2.78 = -0.74 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.78) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.05) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 60 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.7% Win Probability (After): 77.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 5:45 | |
(3rd & 9 at MISS 45) Trestan Ebner run for 3 yds to the Miss 42 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -1.05 | 77.6% | -1.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 42 Started Drive at: BAY 5 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.61 - 1.66 = -1.05 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.66) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.61) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 63 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.6% Win Probability (After): 76.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 4:59 | |
(4th & 6 at MISS 42) Issac Power punt for 34 yds, downed at the Miss 8 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 0.17 | 76.2% | -2.3% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 92 Started Drive at: BAY 5 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.57 - 0.40 = 0.17 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.40) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.57) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 63 yards Win Probability (Before): 76.2% Win Probability (After): 73.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 4:50 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 8) Luke Altmyer run for no gain to the Miss 8 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.56 | 26.3% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 92 Started Drive at: MISS 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.79 - -0.23 = -0.56 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.23) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.79) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.3% Win Probability (After): 25.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 4:40 | |
(2nd & 10 at MISS 8) OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Caleb Warren) to the Miss 4 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.41 | 25.6% | -2.5% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 96 Started Drive at: MISS 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.15 - -0.75 = -0.41 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.75) Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.15) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.6% Win Probability (After): 23.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 4:18 | |
(2nd & 14 at MISS 4) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 18 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 1.78 | 22.8% | 4.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 78 Started Drive at: MISS 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.59 - -1.19 = 1.78 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.19) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.41) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.8% Win Probability (After): 27.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 4:02 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 22) Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 23 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.52 | 27.0% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 77 Started Drive at: MISS 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.10 - 0.62 = -0.52 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.38) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.90) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.0% Win Probability (After): 26.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 3:55 | |
(2nd & 9 at MISS 23) Luke Altmyer sacked by TEAM for a loss of 10 yards to the Miss 13 OLE MISS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Luke Altmyer) to the Miss 13 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -1.46 | 26.6% | -4.4% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 87 Started Drive at: MISS 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.36 - 0.16 = -1.46 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.90) Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.6% Win Probability (After): 22.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 3:25 | |
(3rd & 19 at MISS 13) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 2 yds to the Miss 15 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.74 | 22.2% | -2.3% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 85 Started Drive at: MISS 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.00 - -1.26 = -0.74 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.26) Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.2% Win Probability (After): 19.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 2:31 | |
(4th & 17 at MISS 15) Mac Brown punt for 51 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for 12 yds to the Miss 27 OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Ashanti Cistrunk) to the Miss 39 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.82 | 19.0% | 0.5% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 39 Started Drive at: MISS 8 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.82 - -1.63 = -0.82 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.00) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.82) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.0% Win Probability (After): 19.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 2:15 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 39) Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.33 | 80.8% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39 Started Drive at: MISS 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.25 - 2.58 = -0.33 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.58) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.25) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.8% Win Probability (After): 80.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 2:00 | |
(2nd & 10 at MISS 39) Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Miss 38 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.55 | 80.3% | -1.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 38 Started Drive at: MISS 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - 2.18 = -0.55 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.18) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.64) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.3% Win Probability (After): 79.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 1:37 | |
(3rd & 9 at MISS 38) Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.88 | 79.3% | -2.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 38 Started Drive at: MISS 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.61 - 1.49 = -0.88 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.49) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.61) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.3% Win Probability (After): 77.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 1:31 | |
(4th & 9 at MISS 38) Issac Power punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 16 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.90 | 77.3% | -3.0% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 84 Started Drive at: MISS 39 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.28 - 0.63 = -0.90 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.63) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.72) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.3% Win Probability (After): 74.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 1:30 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 16) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 7 yds to the Miss 23 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 0.31 | 25.9% | 0.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 77 Started Drive at: MISS 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.47 - 0.16 = 0.31 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.84) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.53) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.9% Win Probability (After): 26.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:19 | |
(2nd & 3 at MISS 23) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.60 | 26.4% | -1.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77 Started Drive at: MISS 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.09 - 0.52 = -0.60 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.48) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.4% Win Probability (After): 25.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:15 | |
(3rd & 3 at MISS 23) Luke Altmyer run for 2 yds to the Miss 25 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.67 | 25.5% | -3.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 75 Started Drive at: MISS 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.52 - 0.15 = -0.67 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.85) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.52) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.5% Win Probability (After): 22.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:10 | |
(4th & 1 at MISS 25) Timeout BAYLOR, clock 01:10 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 0.00 | 22.8% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: MISS 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.52 - -0.52 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.52) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.52) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.8% Win Probability (After): 22.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 0:55 | |
(4th & 1 at MISS 25) Mac Brown punt for 58 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for 7 yds to the Bayl 32 BAYLOR Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Bayl 14 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 0.05 | 23.2% | 0.5% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 86 Started Drive at: MISS 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.41 - -0.41 = 0.05 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.46) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.41) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.2% Win Probability (After): 23.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 0:46 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 14) Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Bayl 16 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 0.00 | 76.8% | -0.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 84 Started Drive at: BAY 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.27 - 0.27 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.27) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.27) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 76.8% Win Probability (After): 76.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:08 | |
(2nd & 8 at BAY 16) Timeout BAYLOR, clock 00:08 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 0.00 | 76.8% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 84 Started Drive at: BAY 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.27 - 0.27 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.27) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.27) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 76.8% Win Probability (After): 76.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:02 | |
(2nd & 8 at BAY 16) Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 23 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 0.07 | 75.0% | 0.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 77 Started Drive at: BAY 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.12 - 0.05 = 0.07 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.05) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.12) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.0% Win Probability (After): 75.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:01 | |
(3rd & 1 at BAY 23) Abram Smith run for 23 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.05 | 75.2% | 1.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 54 Started Drive at: BAY 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.26 - 0.05 = -0.05 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.05) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.26) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.2% Win Probability (After): 76.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at BAY 35) Mac Brown kickoff for 64 yds , Jalen Pitre return for 27 yds to the OLEMISS 38 OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 33 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.54 | 76.3% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 67 Started Drive at: BAY 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - 2.01 = -0.54 Score Difference (Before): 7 (6.50) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 76.3% Win Probability (After): 76.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:51 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 33) Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -1.15 | 78.9% | -3.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67 Started Drive at: BAY 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.85 - 3.00 = -1.15 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.00) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.85) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.9% Win Probability (After): 75.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:42 | |
(2nd & 10 at BAY 33) Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the Bayl 38 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 0.38 | 76.6% | 1.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 62 Started Drive at: BAY 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 1.97 = 0.38 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.97) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 76.6% Win Probability (After): 77.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:10 | |
(3rd & 5 at BAY 38) Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -1.62 | 77.4% | -1.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62 Started Drive at: BAY 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.21 - 1.83 = -1.62 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.83) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.21) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.4% Win Probability (After): 75.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:02 | |
(4th & 5 at BAY 38) Issac Power punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 14 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 0.41 | 75.7% | -4.2% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 86 Started Drive at: BAY 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - 0.24 = 0.41 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.24) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.65) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.7% Win Probability (After): 71.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 13:55 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 14) Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 15 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.60 | 27.9% | -1.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 85 Started Drive at: MISS 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.27 - -0.68 = -0.60 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.68) Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.27) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.9% Win Probability (After): 26.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 13:35 | |
(2nd & 9 at MISS 15) Luke Altmyer run for 12 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 1.49 | 26.3% | 2.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 73 Started Drive at: MISS 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - -1.29 = 1.49 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.29) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.80) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.3% Win Probability (After): 29.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 13:16 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 27) Luke Altmyer sacked by Terrel Bernard for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 23 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -1.55 | 28.1% | -2.7% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 77 Started Drive at: MISS 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.34 - 0.21 = -1.55 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.79) Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.34) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.1% Win Probability (After): 25.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:34 | |
(2nd & 14 at MISS 23) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.99 | 25.1% | -1.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77 Started Drive at: MISS 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.27 - -1.29 = -0.99 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.29) Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.27) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.1% Win Probability (After): 23.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:27 | |
(3rd & 14 at MISS 23) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.87 | 22.9% | -2.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77 Started Drive at: MISS 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.13 - -2.26 = -0.87 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.26) Score Difference (End): -7 (-10.13) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.9% Win Probability (After): 20.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:17 | |
(4th & 14 at MISS 23) Mac Brown punt for 45 yds , Trestan Ebner returns for 8 yds to the Bayl 40 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 0.04 | 21.2% | -0.9% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 60 Started Drive at: MISS 14 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.11 - -3.15 = 0.04 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-10.15) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.11) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.2% Win Probability (After): 20.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 12:15 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 40) Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 41 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.50 | 79.6% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 59 Started Drive at: BAY 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.56 - 3.06 = -0.50 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.06) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.56) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.6% Win Probability (After): 79.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 11:35 | |
(2nd & 9 at BAY 41) OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Deane Leonard) to the Miss 44 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 1.30 | 80.0% | 0.1% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 44 Started Drive at: BAY 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.83 - 2.53 = 1.30 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.53) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.0% Win Probability (After): 80.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 11:27 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 44) Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.57 | 80.6% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44 Started Drive at: BAY 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.23 - 3.80 = -0.57 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.80) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.23) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.6% Win Probability (After): 80.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 11:21 | |
(2nd & 10 at MISS 44) Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -1.04 | 80.2% | -1.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44 Started Drive at: BAY 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.21 - 3.24 = -1.04 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.24) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.21) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.2% Win Probability (After): 79.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 11:15 | |
(3rd & 10 at MISS 44) Gerry Bohanon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 45 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -2.05 | 79.0% | -3.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 45 Started Drive at: BAY 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.23 - 2.28 = -2.05 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.28) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.23) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.0% Win Probability (After): 75.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 11:01 | |
(4th & 11 at MISS 45) Issac Power punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 28 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.53 | 75.1% | -4.0% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 72 Started Drive at: BAY 40 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.22 - 0.31 = -0.53 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.31) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.78) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.1% Win Probability (After): 71.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 11:00 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 28) BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kalon Barnes) to the Miss 43 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 1.13 | 28.9% | 2.0% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 57 Started Drive at: MISS 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.37 - 0.24 = 1.13 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.76) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.63) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.9% Win Probability (After): 30.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:43 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 43) Snoop Conner run for 4 yds to the Miss 47 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.20 | 30.3% | 0.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 53 Started Drive at: MISS 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.26 - 1.47 = -0.20 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.53) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.74) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 30.3% Win Probability (After): 30.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:25 | |
(2nd & 6 at MISS 47) Luke Altmyer run for 1 yd to the Miss 48 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.75 | 30.5% | -2.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 52 Started Drive at: MISS 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.58 - 1.34 = -0.75 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.66) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.42) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 30.5% Win Probability (After): 28.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:10 | |
(3rd & 5 at MISS 48) Snoop Conner run for 6 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 1.76 | 27.6% | 4.2% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 46 Started Drive at: MISS 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 0.51 = 1.76 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.49) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.73) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.6% Win Probability (After): 31.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 9:55 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 46) Snoop Conner run for 6 yds to the Bayl 40 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | 0.27 | 31.8% | 0.4% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 40 Started Drive at: MISS 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 2.29 = 0.27 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.71) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.8% Win Probability (After): 32.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 9:32 | |
(2nd & 4 at BAY 40) Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 37 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -0.23 | 33.0% | -1.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 37 Started Drive at: MISS 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.51 - 2.74 = -0.23 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.26) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.49) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 33.0% Win Probability (After): 31.7% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 9:13 | |
(Kickoff at BAY 35) Mac Brown kickoff for 62 yds , Tyquan Thornton return for 18 yds to the Bayl 21 - BAY 7, MISS 0 | -1.18 | 76.4% | -1.3% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 79 Started Drive at: BAY 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 2.13 = -1.18 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.13) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.95) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 76.4% Win Probability (After): 75.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 9:13 | |
(3rd & 1 at BAY 37) Braylon Sanders 37 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (Cale Nation Kick) - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 4.47 | 32.8% | 16.4% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 99 Started Drive at: MISS 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.53 = 4.47 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.47) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 57 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.8% Win Probability (After): 49.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 9:00 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 21) Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 22 - BAY 7, MISS 7 | -0.70 | 53.4% | -2.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 78 Started Drive at: BAY 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.17 - 0.87 = -0.70 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.87) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.17) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.4% Win Probability (After): 51.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 8:30 | |
(2nd & 9 at BAY 22) Abram Smith run for 7 yds to the Bayl 29 - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 0.47 | 50.9% | 0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 71 Started Drive at: BAY 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.62 - 0.15 = 0.47 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.15) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.62) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.9% Win Probability (After): 51.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 7:50 | |
(3rd & 2 at BAY 29) Abram Smith run for 9 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 1.58 | 50.8% | 5.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 62 Started Drive at: BAY 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.05 - 0.46 = 1.58 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.46) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.05) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.8% Win Probability (After): 56.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 7:20 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 38) Trestan Ebner run for no gain to the Bayl 38 - BAY 7, MISS 7 | -0.67 | 56.2% | -2.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62 Started Drive at: BAY 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.39 - 2.06 = -0.67 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.06) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.2% Win Probability (After): 54.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 6:51 | |
(2nd & 10 at BAY 38) Gerry Bohanon pass complete to R.J. Sneed for 9 yds to the Bayl 47 - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 0.73 | 54.3% | 1.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 53 Started Drive at: BAY 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.15 - 1.41 = 0.73 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.41) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.15) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.3% Win Probability (After): 56.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 5:51 | |
(3rd & 1 at BAY 47) Abram Smith run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 0.68 | 56.3% | 1.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 50 Started Drive at: BAY 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 2.14 = 0.68 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.14) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.82) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.3% Win Probability (After): 57.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 5:22 | |
(1st & 10 at 50) Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 7 | -0.67 | 59.1% | -2.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50 Started Drive at: BAY 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.14 - 2.82 = -0.67 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.82) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.14) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.1% Win Probability (After): 56.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 5:15 | |
(2nd & 10 at 50) Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Drake Dabney for 8 yds to the Miss 42 - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 0.44 | 57.4% | 1.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 42 Started Drive at: BAY 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 2.15 = 0.44 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.15) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.59) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 37 yards Win Probability (Before): 57.4% Win Probability (After): 58.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 4:36 | |
(3rd & 2 at MISS 42) Dillon Doyle run for 3 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 1.01 | 59.0% | 3.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 39 Started Drive at: BAY 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.59 - 2.58 = 1.01 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.58) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.59) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.0% Win Probability (After): 62.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 3:59 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 39) Abram Smith run for 9 yds to the Miss 30 - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 0.82 | 61.3% | 2.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 30 Started Drive at: BAY 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.42 - 3.60 = 0.82 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.60) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.42) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 49 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.3% Win Probability (After): 63.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 3:19 | |
(2nd & 1 at MISS 30) Gerry Bohanon pass intercepted Miles Battle return for 9 yds to the Miss 9 - BAY 7, MISS 7 | -4.52 | 61.6% | -11.6% |
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Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 91 Started Drive at: BAY 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.11 - 4.41 = -4.52 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.41) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.11) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 58 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.6% Win Probability (After): 50.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 3:15 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 9) Dontario Drummond run for 1 yd to the Miss 10 - BAY 7, MISS 7 | -0.85 | 50.0% | -4.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 90 Started Drive at: MISS 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.72 - 0.13 = -0.85 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.13) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.72) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.0% Win Probability (After): 45.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 3:01 | |
(2nd & 9 at MISS 10) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Snoop Conner for 2 yds to the Miss 12 - BAY 7, MISS 7 | -0.64 | 46.1% | -4.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 88 Started Drive at: MISS 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.37 - -0.73 = -0.64 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.73) Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.37) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.1% Win Probability (After): 42.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 2:22 | |
(3rd & 7 at MISS 12) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 29 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 3.62 | 40.9% | 15.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 59 Started Drive at: MISS 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.25 - -1.37 = 3.62 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.37) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.25) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.9% Win Probability (After): 56.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 2:01 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 41) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Snoop Conner for no gain to the Miss 41 - BAY 7, MISS 7 | -0.66 | 55.2% | -1.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59 Started Drive at: MISS 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.62 - 2.27 = -0.66 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.27) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.62) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.2% Win Probability (After): 54.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 1:37 | |
(2nd & 10 at MISS 41) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 15 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 1.61 | 53.6% | 5.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 44 Started Drive at: MISS 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 1.68 = 1.61 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.68) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 47 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.6% Win Probability (After): 58.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 1:14 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 44) Luke Altmyer sacked by Al Walcott for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 45 - BAY 7, MISS 7 | -1.15 | 57.8% | -2.3% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 45 Started Drive at: MISS 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.16 - 3.31 = -1.15 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.31) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 46 yards Win Probability (Before): 57.8% Win Probability (After): 55.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:50 | |
(2nd & 11 at BAY 45) Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Bayl 45 - BAY 7, MISS 7 | -1.03 | 54.9% | -3.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45 Started Drive at: MISS 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 2.16 = -1.03 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.16) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.14) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 46 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.9% Win Probability (After): 51.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:20 | |
(3rd & 11 at BAY 45) Jerrion Ealy run for 4 yds to the Bayl 41 - BAY 7, MISS 7 | -1.12 | 51.3% | -5.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 41 Started Drive at: MISS 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.03 - 1.15 = -1.12 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.15) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.03) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.3% Win Probability (After): 46.3% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:01 | |
(4th & 7 at BAY 41) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 18 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 4.47 | 46.2% | 14.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 23 Started Drive at: MISS 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - 0.05 = 4.47 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.05) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.52) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 68 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.2% Win Probability (After): 60.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 14:55 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 23) Snoop Conner run for no gain to the Bayl 23 - BAY 7, MISS 7 | -0.58 | 61.1% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23 Started Drive at: MISS 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 4.51 = -0.58 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.51) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 68 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.1% Win Probability (After): 60.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 14:25 | |
(2nd & 10 at BAY 23) Snoop Conner run for 1 yd to the Bayl 22 - BAY 7, MISS 7 | -0.56 | 60.7% | -2.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 22 Started Drive at: MISS 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.36 - 3.93 = -0.56 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.93) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 69 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.7% Win Probability (After): 58.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:45 | |
(3rd & 9 at BAY 22) Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the Bayl 17 - BAY 7, MISS 7 | -0.63 | 58.8% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 17 Started Drive at: MISS 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.70 - 3.33 = -0.63 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.33) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.70) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.8% Win Probability (After): 58.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:09 | |
(4th & 4 at BAY 17) Cale Nation 35 yd FG MISSED - BAY 7, MISS 7 | -3.55 | 59.5% | -14.5% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Missed Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 80 Started Drive at: MISS 9 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.85 - 2.70 = -3.55 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.70) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.85) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.5% Win Probability (After): 45.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 13:01 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 20) Abram Smith run for 11 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 0.94 | 55.3% | 2.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 69 Started Drive at: BAY 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 0.90 = 0.94 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.90) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.3% Win Probability (After): 57.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 12:30 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 31) Gerry Bohanon run for 4 yds to the Bayl 35 - BAY 7, MISS 7 | -0.15 | 57.8% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 65 Started Drive at: BAY 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.66 - 1.81 = -0.15 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.81) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.66) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 57.8% Win Probability (After): 57.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 11:55 | |
(2nd & 6 at BAY 35) Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete - BAY 7, MISS 7 | -0.98 | 57.5% | -3.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65 Started Drive at: BAY 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - 1.77 = -0.98 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.77) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.79) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 57.5% Win Probability (After): 54.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 11:49 | |
(3rd & 6 at BAY 35) Trestan Ebner run for 17 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST down - BAY 7, MISS 7 | 2.24 | 54.6% | 8.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 48 Started Drive at: BAY 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.14 - 0.90 = 2.24 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.90) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.14) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 7, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.6% Win Probability (After): 63.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 11:14 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 48) Monaray Baldwin run for 48 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 14, MISS 7 | 3.92 | 65.4% | 15.3% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 20 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.08 = 3.92 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.08) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 14, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 80 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.4% Win Probability (After): 80.6% Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 11:14 | |
(Kickoff at MISS 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 14, MISS 7 | 0.00 | 21.9% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 0.43 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.57) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.57) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 14, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.9% Win Probability (After): 21.9% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 11:08 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 25) Luke Altmyer sacked by Terrel Bernard for a loss of 10 yards to the Miss 15 - BAY 14, MISS 7 | -1.42 | 21.9% | -5.4% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 85 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.00 - 0.42 = -1.42 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.58) Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 14, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, -10 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.9% Win Probability (After): 16.5% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 10:27 | |
(2nd & 20 at MISS 15) Luke Altmyer run for 3 yds to the Miss 18 - BAY 14, MISS 7 | -0.85 | 16.9% | -2.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 82 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.78 - -0.93 = -0.85 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.93) Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.78) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 14, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, -7 yards Win Probability (Before): 16.9% Win Probability (After): 14.6% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 9:58 | |
(3rd & 17 at MISS 18) Luke Altmyer pass intercepted JT Woods return for 16 yds to the Miss 15 - BAY 14, MISS 7 | -3.50 | 14.4% | -4.8% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 15 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -5.21 - -1.71 = -3.50 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.71) Score Difference (End): 7 (12.21) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 14, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.4% Win Probability (After): 9.7% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 9:52 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 15) Gerry Bohanon run for 3 yds to the Miss 12 - BAY 14, MISS 7 | -0.33 | 91.0% | -0.3% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 12 Started Drive at: MISS 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.84 - 5.17 = -0.33 Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.17) Score Difference (End): 7 (11.84) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 14, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.0% Win Probability (After): 90.8% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 9:20 | |
(2nd & 7 at MISS 12) Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Miss 10 - BAY 14, MISS 7 | -0.54 | 91.1% | -1.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 10 Started Drive at: MISS 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 4.83 = -0.54 Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.83) Score Difference (End): 7 (11.29) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 14, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.1% Win Probability (After): 89.2% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 8:40 | |
(3rd & 5 at MISS 10) Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Abram Smith for 6 yds to the Miss 4 for a 1ST down - BAY 14, MISS 7 | 1.93 | 91.2% | 1.6% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 4 Started Drive at: MISS 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.12 - 4.18 = 1.93 Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.18) Score Difference (End): 7 (13.12) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 14, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.2% Win Probability (After): 92.7% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 8:10 | |
(1st & Goal at MISS 4) Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Miss 2 - BAY 14, MISS 7 | -0.07 | 94.4% | -1.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 2 Started Drive at: MISS 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.97 - 6.04 = -0.07 Score Difference (Before): 7 (13.04) Score Difference (End): 7 (12.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 14, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 94.4% Win Probability (After): 93.1% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 7:24 | |
(2nd & Goal at MISS 2) Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Tyquan Thornton for 2 yds for a TD, (Isaiah Hankins KICK) - BAY 21, MISS 7 | 1.04 | 93.4% | 4.6% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99 Started Drive at: MISS 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.96 = 1.04 Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.96) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 93.4% Win Probability (After): 98.0% Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 7:24 | |
(Kickoff at MISS 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 21, MISS 7 | 0.00 | 3.3% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.04 - 0.04 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.96) Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.96) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 3.3% Win Probability (After): 3.3% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 7:15 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 25) Jerrion Ealy run for 8 yds to the Miss 33 - BAY 21, MISS 7 | 0.58 | 3.2% | 0.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 67 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - 0.06 = 0.58 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.94) Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 3.2% Win Probability (After): 3.9% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 7:00 | |
(2nd & 2 at MISS 33) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 21, MISS 7 | -0.77 | 3.4% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - 0.67 = -0.77 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.33) Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.10) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 3.4% Win Probability (After): 3.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 6:50 | |
(3rd & 2 at MISS 33) Jerrion Ealy run for 31 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, MISS 7 | 3.20 | 3.0% | 1.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 36 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.07 - -0.14 = 3.20 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.14) Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.93) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 3.0% Win Probability (After): 4.9% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 6:36 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 36) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 21, MISS 7 | -0.68 | 4.9% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 3.16 = -0.68 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.84) Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.52) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 4.9% Win Probability (After): 4.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 6:25 | |
(2nd & 10 at BAY 36) Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Bayl 33 - BAY 21, MISS 7 | -0.56 | 4.4% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 33 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 2.67 = -0.56 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.33) Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.89) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 42 yards Win Probability (Before): 4.4% Win Probability (After): 3.7% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 6:05 | |
(3rd & 7 at BAY 33) Luke Altmyer run for 3 yds to the Bayl 30 - BAY 21, MISS 7 | -0.95 | 3.3% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 30 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 2.16 = -0.95 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.84) Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.80) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 3.3% Win Probability (After): 3.3% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 5:26 | |
(4th & 4 at BAY 30) Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, MISS 7 | 2.77 | 2.7% | 2.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 25 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.85 - 1.08 = 2.77 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.92) Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.15) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.7% Win Probability (After): 5.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 5:06 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 25) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 21, MISS 7 | -0.66 | 4.5% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.29 - 3.96 = -0.66 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.04) Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.71) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 4.5% Win Probability (After): 3.9% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 4:59 | |
(2nd & 10 at BAY 25) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 21, MISS 7 | -0.70 | 4.0% | -0.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.72 - 3.42 = -0.70 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.58) Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 4.0% Win Probability (After): 3.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 4:55 | |
(3rd & 10 at BAY 25) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 21, MISS 7 | -1.44 | 3.0% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.24 - 2.67 = -1.44 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.33) Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.76) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 3.0% Win Probability (After): 2.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 4:52 | |
(4th & 10 at BAY 25) Luke Altmyer sacked by Bryson Jackson for a loss of 11 yards to the Bayl 36 - BAY 21, MISS 7 | -3.57 | 2.4% | -1.7% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 64 Started Drive at: MISS 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.35 - 1.22 = -3.57 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.78) Score Difference (End): 14 (16.35) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 2.4% Win Probability (After): 0.7% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 4:49 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 36) Abram Smith run for 1 yd to the Bayl 37 - BAY 21, MISS 7 | -0.36 | 99.3% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 63 Started Drive at: BAY 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 2.20 = -0.36 Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.20) Score Difference (End): 14 (15.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.3% Win Probability (After): 99.2% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 4:05 | |
(2nd & 9 at BAY 37) Abram Smith run for 5 yds to the Bayl 42 - BAY 21, MISS 7 | -0.01 | 99.3% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 58 Started Drive at: BAY 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - 1.54 = -0.01 Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.54) Score Difference (End): 14 (15.53) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.3% Win Probability (After): 99.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 4:03 | |
(3rd & 4 at BAY 42) Timeout OLE MISS, clock 04:03 - BAY 21, MISS 7 | 0.00 | 99.3% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58 Started Drive at: BAY 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.53 - 1.53 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.53) Score Difference (End): 14 (15.53) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.3% Win Probability (After): 99.3% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 3:59 | |
(3rd & 4 at BAY 42) Trestan Ebner run for 13 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, MISS 7 | 1.51 | 99.4% | 0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 45 Started Drive at: BAY 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 1.36 = 1.51 Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.36) Score Difference (End): 14 (16.87) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.4% Win Probability (After): 99.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 3:56 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 45) Timeout OLE MISS, clock 03:56 - BAY 21, MISS 7 | 0.00 | 99.6% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45 Started Drive at: BAY 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 2.87 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.87) Score Difference (End): 14 (16.87) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.6% Win Probability (After): 99.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 3:50 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 45) BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jacob Gall) to the Bayl 45 - BAY 21, MISS 7 | -0.87 | 99.6% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 55 Started Drive at: BAY 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.99 - 2.86 = -0.87 Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.86) Score Difference (End): 14 (15.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.6% Win Probability (After): 99.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 3:30 | |
(1st & 20 at BAY 45) Abram Smith run for 8 yds to the Miss 47 - BAY 21, MISS 7 | 0.07 | 99.6% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 47 Started Drive at: BAY 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 1.86 = 0.07 Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.86) Score Difference (End): 14 (15.93) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.6% Win Probability (After): 99.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 3:23 | |
(2nd & 12 at MISS 47) Timeout OLE MISS, clock 03:23 - BAY 21, MISS 7 | 0.00 | 99.6% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47 Started Drive at: BAY 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 1.93 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.93) Score Difference (End): 14 (15.93) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.6% Win Probability (After): 99.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 3:15 | |
(2nd & 12 at MISS 47) Abram Smith run for 2 yds to the Miss 45 - BAY 21, MISS 7 | -0.12 | 99.6% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 45 Started Drive at: BAY 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 1.68 = -0.12 Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.68) Score Difference (End): 14 (15.56) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.6% Win Probability (After): 99.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 3:01 | |
(3rd & 10 at MISS 45) Trestan Ebner run for 2 yds to the Miss 43 - BAY 21, MISS 7 | -1.02 | 99.6% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 43 Started Drive at: BAY 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 1.46 = -1.02 Score Difference (Before): 14 (15.46) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.6% Win Probability (After): 99.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 1:58 | |
(4th & 8 at MISS 43) Issac Power punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dontario Drummond at the Miss 7 - BAY 21, MISS 7 | -0.34 | 99.5% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 93 Started Drive at: BAY 36 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.14 - 0.48 = -0.34 Score Difference (Before): 14 (14.48) Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.14) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.5% Win Probability (After): 99.2% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 1:48 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 7) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 25 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, MISS 7 | 1.21 | 0.5% | 0.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 68 Started Drive at: MISS 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.22 - 0.01 = 1.21 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.99) Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.78) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.5% Win Probability (After): 0.7% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 1:41 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 32) Luke Altmyer run for 4 yds to the Miss 36 - BAY 21, MISS 7 | -0.16 | 0.6% | 0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 64 Started Drive at: MISS 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.88 - 1.04 = -0.16 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.96) Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.12) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.6% Win Probability (After): 0.7% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 1:33 | |
(2nd & 6 at MISS 36) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 11 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST down - BAY 21, MISS 7 | 0.89 | 0.7% | 0.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 53 Started Drive at: MISS 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - 0.75 = 0.89 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.25) Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.7% Win Probability (After): 0.8% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 1:22 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 47) Luke Altmyer pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 5 yds to the Bayl 48 - BAY 21, MISS 7 | 0.12 | 0.8% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 48 Started Drive at: MISS 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.55 - 1.43 = 0.12 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.57) Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.45) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.8% Win Probability (After): 0.7% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 1:16 | |
(2nd & 5 at BAY 48) Luke Altmyer pass incomplete - BAY 21, MISS 7 | -0.37 | 0.8% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48 Started Drive at: MISS 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.16 - 1.54 = -0.37 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.46) Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.84) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.8% Win Probability (After): 0.8% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 1:02 | |
(3rd & 5 at BAY 48) Luke Altmyer sacked by Bryson Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 45 - BAY 21, MISS 7 | -1.06 | 0.8% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 55 Started Drive at: MISS 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.00 - 1.06 = -1.06 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.94) Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 38 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.8% Win Probability (After): 0.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 0:38 | |
(4th & 12 at MISS 45) Luke Altmyer sacked by Brayden Utley for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 37 - BAY 21, MISS 7 | -2.39 | 0.6% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 37 Started Drive at: MISS 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.32 - 0.07 = -2.39 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.93) Score Difference (End): 14 (16.32) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 30 yards Win Probability (Before): 0.6% Win Probability (After): 0.3% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 0:37 | |
(1st & 10 at MISS 37) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 38 - BAY 21, MISS 7 | -0.77 | 99.6% | 0.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 38 Started Drive at: MISS 37 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.44 - 2.21 = -0.77 Score Difference (Before): 14 (16.21) Score Difference (End): 14 (15.44) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 21, MISS 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.6% Win Probability (After): 100.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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