USC 14 @ California 24

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 4.29 | Odds: CAL -4.5, O/U 57.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 30 ESPN team id 25
Total Plays 13997
Total EPA -17.61-16.51
  Offensive EPA -11.88-2.12
  Special Teams EPA -6.96-12.14
  Penalty EPA -3.25-9.77
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 4.487.52
Production ESPN team id 30 ESPN team id 25
Scrimmage Plays 13086
  Yards 743413
  Yards/Play 5.724.80
  EPA -11.88-2.12
  EPA/Play -0.09-0.02
Passes 70 (54%)41 (48%)
  Yards 480287
  Yards/Play 6.867.00
  EPA 3.144.96
  EPA/Play 0.040.12
Rushes 59 (45%)45 (52%)
  Yards 297174
  Yards/Play 5.124.05
  EPA -6.10-7.08
  EPA/Play -0.10-0.16
Rushing ESPN team id 30 ESPN team id 25
Scrimmage Plays 13086
Rushes 59 (45%)45 (52%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 1 (2%)2 (4%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 1 (100%)2 (100%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 4 (7%)7 (16%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 14 (24%)23 (51%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 34 (58%)16 (36%)
OL Line Yards 139.957
  Per Carry 2.371.27
Highlight Yards 65.554
  Per Rush Opportunity 1.933.38
Explosiveness ESPN team id 30 ESPN team id 25
Total Plays 13997
Scrimmage Plays 13086
Explosive Plays 5 (4%)7 (8%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 4 (6%)6 (15%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 1 (2%)1 (2%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -27.06-21.19
  EPA/Play -0.22-0.27
  When Passing -10.07-11.95
    EPA/Play -0.14-0.29
  When Rushing -8.06-9.23
    EPA/Play -0.14-0.21
Situational ESPN team id 30 ESPN team id 25
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 51 (39%)38 (44%)
  When Passing 27 (39%)18 (44%)
  When Rushing 24 (41%)20 (44%)
  On Standard Downs 30 (36%)32 (53%)
  On Passing Downs 21 (45%)6 (23%)
  On Early Downs 34 (35%)31 (46%)
  On Late Downs 17 (52%)7 (37%)
  During "Middle 8" 9 (24%)1 (11%)
Early Downs 9767
  First Downs Created 19 (20%)14 (21%)
  EPA -6.02-3.89
  EPA/Play -0.06-0.06
  Passes 50 (52%)27 (40%)
  Rushes 47 (48%)40 (60%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 17 (34%)13 (48%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 17 (36%)18 (45%)
"Middle 8" Plays 379
  EPA -11.96-3.22
  EPA/play -0.32-0.36
  Passes 20 (54%)4 (44%)
  Rushes 16 (43%)5 (56%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 4 (20%)0 (0%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 5 (31%)1 (20%)
Drives ESPN team id 30 ESPN team id 25
Total 1415
Avg Starting Field Position Own 43Own 46
Plays/Drive 8.747.34
Yards/Drive 41.9138.12
Available Yards % 74%71%
Defensive ESPN team id 30 ESPN team id 25
Scrimmage Plays 86130
Stop Rate 56%45%
Havoc Plays Created 14 (16%)13 (10%)
  Passing 7 (17%)10 (14%)
  Rushing 7 (16%)3 (5%)
TFLs Generated 149
  Passing 76
  Rushing 73
Sacks Generated 6 (15%)4 (6%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 00
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 30 ESPN team id 25
Turnovers 31
  Fumbles 31
  Fumbles Lost 31
  Fumbles Recovered 00
  Interceptions 00
Turnover Margin -22
Expected Turnovers 2.02.0
Expected Turnover Margin 0.00.0
Turnover Luck (pts) -10.010.0
Special Teams ESPN team id 30 ESPN team id 25
Total Plays 9 11
Total EPA -6.96 -12.14
  Field Goal EPA -5.37 -11.57
  Punting EPA -0.57 -1.41
  Kickoff Return EPA -1.03 0.84
Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Jaxson Dart 34/48, 390 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 3 Scks, 61.1 xQBR, 0.49 DETMER 7.65 0.17 8.89 41% -5.0%
Miller Moss 9/14, 90 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 37.2 xQBR, 0.11 DETMER 6.00 -0.21 -3.12 40% -3.0%
Rush attempts
Vavae Malepeai 32 carries, 189 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.91 0.13 4.26 50% -12.0%
Darwin Barlow 9 carries, 41 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.56 0.05 0.42 33% -1.0%
Miller Moss 2 carries, 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.50 0.18 0.36 50% 0.0%
Jaxson Dart 2 carries, 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 -0.22 -0.43 0% -1.0%
Erik Krommenhoek 1 carry, 0 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 0.00 -3.62 -3.62 0% -4.0%
Brandon Campbell 12 carries, 50 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.17 -0.50 -6.00 33% -18.0%
Pass targets
Tahj Washington 10 catches (11 targets), 118 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.80 1.04 11.47 64% 17.0%
Michael Jackson III 11 catches (17 targets), 135 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.27 0.28 4.82 47% -2.0%
K.D. Nixon 1 catch (1 target), 16 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.00 4.01 4.01 100% 4.0%
Kyle Ford 7 catches (12 targets), 136 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 19.43 0.14 1.73 33% 0.0%
Brandon Campbell 1 catch (3 targets), 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.00 0.15 0.45 33% 0.0%
John Jackson III 1 catch (1 target), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 0.02 0.02 100% 0.0%
Joseph Manjack IV 2 catches (3 targets), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.11 -0.33 33% -1.0%
Erik Krommenhoek 2 catches (4 targets), 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 -0.17 -0.68 50% 0.0%
Vavae Malepeai 2 catches (2 targets), 16 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 -0.36 -0.72 0% 0.0%
Darwin Barlow 2 catches (2 targets), 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.60 -1.19 0% -1.0%
Kyron Ware-Hudson 4 catches (4 targets), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.50 -0.37 -1.50 50% -5.0%
Malcolm Epps 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.90 -1.80 0% -5.0%

California [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Chase Garbers 29/32, 287 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 6 Scks, 59.1 xQBR, 0.00 DETMER 7.55 0.21 8.03 47% 75.0%
TEAM 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 21.0 xQBR, 0.00 DETMER 0.00 -1.18 -1.18 0% -2.0%
Rush attempts
Marcel Dancy 9 carries, 59 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.56 0.26 2.30 56% 6.0%
Chase Garbers 6 carries, 27 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 4.50 -0.05 -0.31 67% -1.0%
Nikko Remigio 2 carries, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.78 -1.56 0% -1.0%
Christopher Brooks 23 carries, 96 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.17 -0.19 -4.28 43% -34.0%
Pass targets
Trevon Clark 6 catches (6 targets), 70 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.67 1.29 7.75 100% 16.0%
Jake Tonges 2 catches (2 targets), 78 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 39.00 3.03 6.05 100% 18.0%
Nikko Remigio 6 catches (6 targets), 67 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.40 0.83 4.97 50% 10.0%
Kekoa Crawford 8 catches (8 targets), 44 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.50 0.18 1.46 38% 43.0%
Christopher Brooks 2 catches (2 targets), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.50 -0.11 -0.22 50% 1.0%
Collin Moore 5 catches (5 targets), 23 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.60 -0.29 -1.46 60% -7.0%
Marcel Dancy 0 catches (4 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.92 -3.67 0% -5.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 3:53 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 2 at CAL 47) Trey Paster 55 Yd Fumble Return (Dario Longhetto Kick) - USC 7, CAL 17 -8.93 38.1% -21.1%

Play Type: Fumble Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 1.93 = -8.93

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.07)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 161 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.1%

Win Probability (After): 17.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:47 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 6 at CAL 8) Miller Moss sacked by Daniel Scott for a loss of 27 yards to the Cal 35 Miller Moss fumbled, recovered by Cal Lu-Magia Hearns III , return for 0 yards - USC 7, CAL 17 -6.34 15.4% -8.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 65

Started Drive at: USC 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.60 - 3.74 = -6.34

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.26)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.60)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.4%

Win Probability (After): 6.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:12 ESPN team id 25 (4th & Goal at USC 8) Dario Longhetto 25 yd FG MISSED USC Penalty, off-side (Maximus Gibbs) to the USC 4 - USC 0, CAL 0 -5.93 70.3% -7.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 4

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.93 - 2.79 = -5.93

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.00)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.3%

Win Probability (After): 63.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:13 ESPN team id 25 (4th & Goal at USC 8) (02:12) Longhetto,Dario field goal attempt from 26 yards NO GOOD, clock 02:13 PENALTY USC Offside (Gibbs,Maximus) 4 yards from USC08 to USC04. NO PLAY. - USC 0, CAL 0 -5.70 62.4% 0.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 4

Started Drive at: CAL 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.93 - 2.77 = -5.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.4%

Win Probability (After): 63.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:28 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 45) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford for 45 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK) - USC 7, CAL 3 4.05 44.6% 11.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.95 = 4.05

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.05)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 98 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.6%

Win Probability (After): 55.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:36 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 9 at CAL 16) Miller Moss pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 16 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK) - USC 14, CAL 24 4.01 0.6% 4.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.99 = 4.01

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-14.01)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 14, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 5.0%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:13 ESPN team id 30 (4th & 2 at CAL 3) Erik Krommenhoek run for no gain to the Cal 3 - USC 7, CAL 17 -3.62 16.9% -3.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 97

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.47 - 3.15 = -3.62

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.85)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.47)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 19 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.9%

Win Probability (After): 13.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:22 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 7 at CAL 47) Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 39 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 3 3.04 49.4% 8.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 14

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.87 - 1.83 = 3.04

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.17)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 116 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.4%

Win Probability (After): 58.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:58 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 7 at CAL 47) Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 39 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 3 3.02 48.5% 9.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 14

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.87 - 1.85 = 3.02

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.15)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 58.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:59 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & 17 at USC 26) Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 17 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 0 2.97 62.6% 5.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 9

Started Drive at: CAL 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.37 - 2.40 = 2.97

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.40)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.6%

Win Probability (After): 67.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 6:58 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at USC 14) Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 10 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 15 1.09 57.7% 25.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 4

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.91 - 4.81 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.81)

Score Difference (End): -4 (1.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 15

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.7%

Win Probability (After): 82.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:53 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 2 at CAL 47) Trey Paster 55 Yd Fumble Return (Dario Longhetto Kick) - USC 7, CAL 17 -8.93 38.1% -21.1%

Play Type: Fumble Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 1.93 = -8.93

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.07)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 161 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.1%

Win Probability (After): 17.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 15 at CAL 17) Christopher Brooks run for 18 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 3 -0.76 83.5% -19.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 0.74 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.74)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.5%

Win Probability (After): 63.7%

Away Score: 7 (0) Home Score: 17 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 7 at CAL 24) Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 6 yds to the Cal 30 - USC 7, CAL 15 -0.02 64.2% 17.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 0.03 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.03)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 15

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.2%

Win Probability (After): 81.3%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 3 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:53 ESPN team id 30 (Kickoff at USC 35) Dario Longhetto kickoff for 64 yds , Tahj Washington return for 18 yds to the USC 19 - USC 0, CAL 0 0.44 33.4% 14.4%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 81

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.85 - 0.41 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.59)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.4%

Win Probability (After): 47.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:06 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 5 at USC 40) Brandon Campbell run for 3 yds to the USC 43 - USC 0, CAL 3 -0.84 46.6% -12.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 57

Started Drive at: CAL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 2.03 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.03)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.6%

Win Probability (After): 33.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:28 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 45) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford for 45 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK) - USC 7, CAL 3 4.05 44.6% 11.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.95 = 4.05

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.05)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 98 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.6%

Win Probability (After): 55.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:58 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 7 at CAL 47) Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 39 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 3 3.02 48.5% 9.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 14

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.87 - 1.85 = 3.02

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.15)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 58.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:47 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 6 at CAL 8) Miller Moss sacked by Daniel Scott for a loss of 27 yards to the Cal 35 Miller Moss fumbled, recovered by Cal Lu-Magia Hearns III , return for 0 yards - USC 7, CAL 17 -6.34 15.4% -8.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 65

Started Drive at: USC 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.60 - 3.74 = -6.34

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.26)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.60)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.4%

Win Probability (After): 6.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:22 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 7 at CAL 47) Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 39 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 3 3.04 49.4% 8.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 14

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.87 - 1.83 = 3.04

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.17)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 116 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.4%

Win Probability (After): 58.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 2:12 ESPN team id 25 (4th & Goal at USC 4) Dario Longhetto 22 yd FG GOOD - USC 0, CAL 3 0.07 63.1% 2.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 65

Started Drive at: CAL 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.93 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.93)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.1%

Win Probability (After): 65.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:28 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 45) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford for 45 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK) - USC 7, CAL 3 4.05 44.6% 11.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.95 = 4.05

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.05)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 98 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.6%

Win Probability (After): 55.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:51 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & Goal at USC 1) Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) - USC 7, CAL 10 0.93 62.7% 2.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.07 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): -4 (2.07)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 10

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 130 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.7%

Win Probability (After): 65.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:53 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 2 at CAL 47) Trey Paster 55 Yd Fumble Return (Dario Longhetto Kick) - USC 7, CAL 17 -8.93 38.1% -21.1%

Play Type: Fumble Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 1.93 = -8.93

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.07)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 161 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.1%

Win Probability (After): 17.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:37 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & Goal at USC 2) Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) - USC 7, CAL 24 1.16 98.9% 0.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.84 = 1.16

Score Difference (Before): 10 (15.84)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:36 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 9 at CAL 16) Miller Moss pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 16 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK) - USC 14, CAL 24 4.01 0.6% 4.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.99 = 4.01

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-14.01)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 14, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 5.0%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 35) Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Michael Jackson III, broken up by Lu-Magia Hearns III - USC 0, CAL 0 -0.86 53.8% -7.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.94 - 3.80 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.80)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.8%

Win Probability (After): 46.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 19) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 16 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 0 1.17 47.8% 2.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 65

Started Drive at: CAL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - 0.85 = 1.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.85)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.8%

Win Probability (After): 50.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at CAL 22) Chase Garbers sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 17 - USC 0, CAL 3 -0.85 53.3% 7.9%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 83

Started Drive at: USC 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 0.98 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.98)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.3%

Win Probability (After): 61.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:53 ESPN team id 30 (Kickoff at USC 35) Dario Longhetto kickoff for 64 yds , Tahj Washington return for 18 yds to the USC 19 - USC 0, CAL 0 0.44 33.4% 14.4%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 81

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.85 - 0.41 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.59)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.4%

Win Probability (After): 47.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:47 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 19) Vavae Malepeai run for 10 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 0 0.49 43.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 71

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 0.86 = 0.49

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:39 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 19) Vavae Malepeai run for 10 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 0 0.87 42.0% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 71

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - 0.77 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.0%

Win Probability (After): 44.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:24 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 29) Jaxson Dart sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 28 - USC 0, CAL 0 -1.38 43.7% -3.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 72

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.15 - 1.53 = -1.38

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.7%

Win Probability (After): 39.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:05 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 29) Jaxson Dart sacked by Luc Bequette for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 28 - USC 0, CAL 0 -1.44 43.5% -3.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 72

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.14 - 1.57 = -1.44

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.5%

Win Probability (After): 40.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:45 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 11 at USC 28) Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 33 - USC 0, CAL 0 0.18 40.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 67

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.32 - 0.14 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.5%

Win Probability (After): 40.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:24 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 11 at USC 28) Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 33 - USC 0, CAL 0 0.13 40.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 67

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.28 - 0.15 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.15)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.4%

Win Probability (After): 40.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:04 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 6 at USC 33) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 9 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 0 1.97 40.5% 6.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 58

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.28 - 0.31 = 1.97

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.31)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.5%

Win Probability (After): 46.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:53 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 6 at USC 33) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 9 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 0 1.95 40.3% 6.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 58

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.28 - 0.33 = 1.95

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.33)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.3%

Win Probability (After): 46.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:36 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 42) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 9 yds to the Cal 49 - USC 0, CAL 0 1.03 44.5% 2.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 49

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.32 - 2.29 = 1.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.29)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.5%

Win Probability (After): 47.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:19 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 42) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 9 yds to the Cal 49 - USC 0, CAL 0 1.02 44.5% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 49

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.31 - 2.29 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.29)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.5%

Win Probability (After): 45.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:58 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 1 at CAL 49) Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 0 -0.12 46.2% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 46

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.18 - 3.31 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.31)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.2%

Win Probability (After): 45.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:48 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 46) Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds to the Cal 43 - USC 0, CAL 0 -0.37 44.8% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 43

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.80 - 3.18 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.8%

Win Probability (After): 46.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:34 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 46) Darwin Barlow run for 3 yds to the Cal 43 - USC 0, CAL 0 -0.42 46.6% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 43

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.78 - 3.19 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.6%

Win Probability (After): 44.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:19 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 7 at CAL 43) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 8 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 0 1.07 48.9% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 35

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.81 - 2.74 = 1.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.74)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 81 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.9%

Win Probability (After): 47.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:50 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 7 at CAL 43) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 8 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 0 0.92 48.5% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 35

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.77 - 2.85 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.85)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 50.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:43 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 35) Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Michael Jackson III - USC 0, CAL 0 -0.61 49.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.24 - 3.84 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.84)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 17 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.1%

Win Probability (After): 49.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:43 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 10 at CAL 35) Darwin Barlow run for 1 yd to the Cal 34 - USC 0, CAL 0 -0.83 48.6% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 34

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.41 - 3.24 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.24)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 18 plays, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.6%

Win Probability (After): 47.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:19 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 9 at CAL 34) Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Kyle Ford, broken up by Isaiah Young - USC 0, CAL 0 -1.68 47.6% -5.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - 2.48 = -1.68

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.48)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 19 plays, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.6%

Win Probability (After): 42.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:17 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 9 at CAL 34) Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Kyle Ford - USC 0, CAL 0 -1.61 47.6% -4.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.85 - 2.46 = -1.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.46)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 20 plays, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.6%

Win Probability (After): 42.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:06 ESPN team id 30 (4th & 9 at CAL 34) Parker Lewis 51 yd FG MISSED - USC 0, CAL 0 -2.84 42.8% -4.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 66

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.04 - 0.80 = -2.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.80)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.04)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 20 plays, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.8%

Win Probability (After): 38.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:06 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 35) Brandon Campbell run for 5 yds to the USC 40 - USC 0, CAL 0 0.02 45.8% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 60

Started Drive at: CAL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.03 - 2.02 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.8%

Win Probability (After): 46.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:06 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 5 at USC 40) Brandon Campbell run for 3 yds to the USC 43 - USC 0, CAL 3 -0.84 46.6% -12.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 57

Started Drive at: CAL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 2.03 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.03)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.6%

Win Probability (After): 33.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:06 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 2 at USC 43) Brandon Campbell run for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 37 - USC 0, CAL 3 -2.52 33.8% -4.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 63

Started Drive at: CAL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.32 - 1.20 = -2.52

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.80)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.8%

Win Probability (After): 29.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:28 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at USC 49) Chase Garbers pass complete to Collin Moore for 7 yds to the USC 42 - USC 0, CAL 0 0.21 69.7% -4.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 42

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - 3.21 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.7%

Win Probability (After): 64.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:27 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at CAL 34) Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 17 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 0 1.18 60.0% 2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 49

Started Drive at: CAL 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.05 - 1.87 = 1.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.87)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.0%

Win Probability (After): 62.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:18 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at USC 49) Chase Garbers pass complete to Collin Moore for 7 yds to the USC 42 - USC 0, CAL 0 0.32 62.9% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 42

Started Drive at: CAL 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.36 - 3.04 = 0.32

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.04)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.9%

Win Probability (After): 63.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:07 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 3 at USC 42) Christopher Brooks run for 6 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 0 0.41 63.2% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 36

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 3.38 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.38)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.2%

Win Probability (After): 63.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:39 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 3 at USC 42) Christopher Brooks run for 6 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 0 0.44 62.3% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 36

Started Drive at: CAL 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 3.35 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.3%

Win Probability (After): 63.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:32 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at USC 36) nan - USC 0, CAL 0 -0.64 62.7% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.13 - 3.77 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.7%

Win Probability (After): 62.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:12 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at USC 36) Christopher Brooks run for no gain to the USC 36 - USC 0, CAL 0 -0.62 61.8% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 36

Started Drive at: CAL 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.14 - 3.76 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.76)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.8%

Win Probability (After): 62.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:50 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 10 at USC 36) Christopher Brooks run for 6 yds to the USC 30 - USC 0, CAL 0 0.17 63.6% -3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 30

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 3.11 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.6%

Win Probability (After): 60.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:42 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 10 at USC 36) Christopher Brooks run for 6 yds to the USC 30 - USC 0, CAL 0 0.17 63.9% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 30

Started Drive at: CAL 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.27 - 3.10 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.9%

Win Probability (After): 63.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:12 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & 4 at USC 30) Chase Garbers pass complete to Collin Moore for 2 yds to the USC 28 - USC 0, CAL 0 -1.03 63.7% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 28

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 3.30 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.30)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.7%

Win Probability (After): 61.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:50 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & 4 at USC 30) Chase Garbers pass complete to Collin Moore for 2 yds to the USC 28 - USC 0, CAL 0 -0.97 63.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 28

Started Drive at: CAL 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.33 - 3.30 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.30)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.1%

Win Probability (After): 62.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:31 ESPN team id 25 (4th & 2 at USC 28) Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 9 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 0 2.45 61.4% 5.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 19

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.78 - 2.33 = 2.45

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.33)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.4%

Win Probability (After): 67.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 6:12 ESPN team id 25 (4th & 2 at USC 28) Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 9 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 0 2.47 60.1% 6.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 19

Started Drive at: CAL 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.78 - 2.31 = 2.47

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.31)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.1%

Win Probability (After): 66.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 5:58 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at USC 19) Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the USC 17 - USC 0, CAL 0 -0.36 65.9% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 17

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.42 - 4.78 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.78)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.9%

Win Probability (After): 64.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:47 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at USC 19) Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the USC 17 - USC 0, CAL 0 -0.35 65.3% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 17

Started Drive at: CAL 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.44 - 4.79 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.79)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.3%

Win Probability (After): 65.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:23 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 8 at USC 17) Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd to the USC 16 - USC 0, CAL 0 -0.62 65.7% -3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 16

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.83 - 4.45 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.45)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.7%

Win Probability (After): 62.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:08 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 8 at USC 17) Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd to the USC 16 - USC 0, CAL 0 -0.63 65.7% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 16

Started Drive at: CAL 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.83 - 4.46 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.46)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.7%

Win Probability (After): 63.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:51 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & 7 at USC 16) CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Brayden Rohme) to the USC 26 - USC 0, CAL 0 -1.42 64.1% -3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 26

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.41 - 3.86 = -1.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.83)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.1%

Win Probability (After): 61.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:40 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & 7 at USC 16) (04:51) Garbers,Chase rush for 9 yards gain to the USC07, End Of Play PENALTY CAL Holding (Rohme,Brayden) 10 yards from USC16 to USC26. NO PLAY. - USC 0, CAL 0 -1.45 64.5% -2.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 26

Started Drive at: CAL 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.41 - 3.86 = -1.45

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.5%

Win Probability (After): 61.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:18 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & 17 at USC 26) Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 17 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 0 2.96 61.9% 6.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 9

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.37 - 2.41 = 2.96

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.41)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.9%

Win Probability (After): 67.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:59 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & 17 at USC 26) Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 17 yds to the USC 9 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 0 2.97 62.6% 5.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 9

Started Drive at: CAL 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.37 - 2.40 = 2.97

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.40)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.6%

Win Probability (After): 67.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:41 ESPN team id 25 (1st & Goal at USC 9) Nikko Remigio run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 10 - USC 0, CAL 0 -0.78 67.2% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 10

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.59 - 5.37 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.2%

Win Probability (After): 67.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:28 ESPN team id 25 (1st & Goal at USC 9) Nikko Remigio run for 1 yd to the USC 10 - USC 0, CAL 0 -0.78 67.1% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 10

Started Drive at: CAL 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.59 - 5.37 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.1%

Win Probability (After): 66.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:04 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & Goal at USC 10) Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the USC 8 - USC 0, CAL 0 -0.64 66.0% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 8

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.96 - 4.59 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.59)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.0%

Win Probability (After): 64.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:50 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & Goal at USC 10) Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the USC 8 - USC 0, CAL 0 -0.65 66.5% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 8

Started Drive at: CAL 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.95 - 4.60 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.60)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.5%

Win Probability (After): 64.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:27 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & Goal at USC 8) pass incomplete - USC 0, CAL 0 -1.18 64.5% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.77 - 3.95 = -1.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.5%

Win Probability (After): 62.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:17 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & Goal at USC 8) Chase Garbers pass incomplete - USC 0, CAL 0 -1.17 64.5% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8

Started Drive at: CAL 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.77 - 3.95 = -1.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.5%

Win Probability (After): 62.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:13 ESPN team id 25 (4th & Goal at USC 8) (02:12) Longhetto,Dario field goal attempt from 26 yards NO GOOD, clock 02:13 PENALTY USC Offside (Gibbs,Maximus) 4 yards from USC08 to USC04. NO PLAY. - USC 0, CAL 0 -5.70 62.4% 0.8%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 4

Started Drive at: CAL 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.93 - 2.77 = -5.70

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.4%

Win Probability (After): 63.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:12 ESPN team id 25 (4th & Goal at USC 4) Dario Longhetto 22 yd FG GOOD - USC 0, CAL 3 0.07 63.1% 2.7%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 65

Started Drive at: CAL 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.93 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.93)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.1%

Win Probability (After): 65.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:12 ESPN team id 25 (4th & Goal at USC 8) Dario Longhetto 25 yd FG MISSED USC Penalty, off-side (Maximus Gibbs) to the USC 4 - USC 0, CAL 0 -5.93 70.3% -7.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 4

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.93 - 2.79 = -5.93

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.00)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.3%

Win Probability (After): 63.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:05 ESPN team id 30 (Kickoff at USC 35) Dario Longhetto kickoff for 62 yds , Tahj Washington return for 16 yds to the USC 19 - USC 0, CAL 0 -0.31 45.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 81

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.78 - 1.09 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.09)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 0

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.5%

Win Probability (After): 45.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:05 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 19) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 16 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 3 0.90 45.0% -7.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 65

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.69 - 0.78 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.78)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.0%

Win Probability (After): 37.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:05 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 35) Brandon Campbell run for 5 yds to the USC 40 - USC 0, CAL 3 -0.01 37.9% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 60

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.68 - 1.69 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.31)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.9%

Win Probability (After): 38.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:05 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 5 at USC 40) Brandon Campbell run for 3 yds to the USC 43 - USC 0, CAL 3 -0.36 38.7% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 57

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.32 - 1.68 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.32)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.7%

Win Probability (After): 38.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:05 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 2 at USC 43) Brandon Campbell run for 6 yds to the USC 37 - USC 0, CAL 3 -2.56 38.0% -5.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 63

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.24 - 1.32 = -2.56

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.68)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 17 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.0%

Win Probability (After): 32.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:09 ESPN team id 30 (4th & 8 at USC 37) Ben Griffiths punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 22 - USC 0, CAL 3 -0.19 35.9% -2.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 78

Started Drive at: USC 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.35 - -1.15 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.15)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.35)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 17 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.9%

Win Probability (After): 33.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at CAL 22) Chase Garbers sacked by Korey Foreman for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 17 - USC 0, CAL 3 -1.22 63.2% -1.8%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 83

Started Drive at: CAL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.14 - 1.36 = -1.22

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.36)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.2%

Win Probability (After): 61.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 9) Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds to the USC 17 - USC 0, CAL 3 0.53 35.0% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 83

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - -0.01 = 0.53

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.01)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.0%

Win Probability (After): 36.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 2 at USC 17) Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 3 -0.06 34.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - 0.01 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.99)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.8%

Win Probability (After): 35.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 22) Vavae Malepeai run for 24 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 3 -0.05 35.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - 0.01 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.99)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.4%

Win Probability (After): 35.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 46) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 4 yds to the 50 yard line - USC 0, CAL 3 -0.21 36.9% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 0.18 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.82)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.9%

Win Probability (After): 34.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 6 at 50) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford to the 50 yard line USC Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the USC 45 - USC 0, CAL 3 -0.03 36.6% -4.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - 0.30 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.03)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.6%

Win Probability (After): 32.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 11 at USC 45) USC Penalty, delay of game (Jaxson Dart) to the USC 40 - USC 0, CAL 3 -0.21 35.2% -2.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - 0.16 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.84)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.2%

Win Probability (After): 32.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 16 at USC 40) Jaxson Dart pass incomplete, broken up by Luc Bequette - USC 0, CAL 3 -0.16 34.3% -3.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - 0.11 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.89)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.3%

Win Probability (After): 31.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 16 at USC 40) Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Joseph Manjack IV for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Lu-Magia Hearns III) to the Cal 45 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 3 0.01 33.1% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - 0.08 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.05)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.1%

Win Probability (After): 35.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at CAL 21) Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 3 yds to the Cal 24 - USC 0, CAL 3 -0.03 63.8% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.00 - 0.02 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.02)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 63.8%

Win Probability (After): 64.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 7 at CAL 24) Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 6 yds to the Cal 30 - USC 7, CAL 15 -0.02 64.2% 17.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 0.03 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.03)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 15

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.2%

Win Probability (After): 81.3%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 3 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & 1 at CAL 30) Marcel Dancy run for 14 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 15 -0.08 81.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 0.06 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): 8 (8.06)

Score Difference (End): 8 (7.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 15

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.5%

Win Probability (After): 81.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 15 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at CAL 44) Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 3 yds to the Cal 47 - USC 7, CAL 15 -0.14 82.8% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.00 - 0.14 = -0.14

Score Difference (Before): 8 (8.14)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 15

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.8%

Win Probability (After): 81.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 15 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 25) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 9 yds to the USC 34 - USC 7, CAL 16 -0.05 19.1% -3.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - -0.01 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-8.01)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 16

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.1%

Win Probability (After): 15.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 15 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 1 at USC 34) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 11 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 16 -0.12 16.3% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.05 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.95)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 16

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.3%

Win Probability (After): 15.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 45) pass incomplete to Michael Jackson III - USC 7, CAL 16 -0.21 16.8% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.14 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.86)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.8%

Win Probability (After): 14.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 10 at USC 45) Darwin Barlow run for 8 yds to the Cal 47 - USC 7, CAL 16 -0.20 16.5% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - 0.14 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-8.86)

Score Difference (End): -9 (-9.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 16

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.5%

Win Probability (After): 14.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 25) Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the USC 26 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.04 16.1% -2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - -0.02 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -9 (-9.02)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.1%

Win Probability (After): 13.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 16 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 9 at USC 26) Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 29 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.04 14.7% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - -0.01 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.01)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.7%

Win Probability (After): 12.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 6 at USC 29) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford for 7 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.05 14.0% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - -0.01 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.01)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.0%

Win Probability (After): 14.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 36) pass incomplete to Kyle Ford - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.10 15.1% -1.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.05 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.95)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.1%

Win Probability (After): 13.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 10 at USC 36) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 21 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.11 15.1% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.05 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.95)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.1%

Win Probability (After): 14.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 43) Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the Cal 40 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.64 16.4% -2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - 0.60 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.40)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.4%

Win Probability (After): 13.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 7 at CAL 40) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 5 yds to the Cal 35 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.87 17.0% -3.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - 0.84 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.16)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.0%

Win Probability (After): 13.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 2 at CAL 35) Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 -1.04 16.9% -2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.98 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.02)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.9%

Win Probability (After): 14.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at CAL 26) Chase Garbers run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 35 - USC 7, CAL 17 0.03 86.7% -0.8%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 0.03 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.03)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.06)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.7%

Win Probability (After): 85.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 15 at CAL 17) Christopher Brooks run for 18 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 3 -0.76 83.5% -19.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 0.74 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.74)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.5%

Win Probability (After): 63.7%

Away Score: 7 (0) Home Score: 17 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at CAL 35) Chase Garbers pass complete to Collin Moore for 5 yds to the Cal 40 - USC 0, CAL 3 0.01 67.2% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 60

Started Drive at: CAL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 2.29 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.29)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.2%

Win Probability (After): 67.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 5 at CAL 40) Chase Garbers sacked by Jacob Lichtenstein for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 39 - USC 0, CAL 3 -1.19 67.7% -2.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 61

Started Drive at: CAL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 2.29 = -1.19

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.29)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.7%

Win Probability (After): 65.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & 6 at CAL 39) Chase Garbers run for 1 yd to the Cal 40 - USC 0, CAL 3 -1.46 65.5% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 60

Started Drive at: CAL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - 1.10 = -1.46

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.10)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.5%

Win Probability (After): 63.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 15 at CAL 17) Christopher Brooks run for 18 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 3 2.16 64.4% 2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 65

Started Drive at: USC 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 0.13 = 2.16

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.13)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.4%

Win Probability (After): 67.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 5 at CAL 40) Chase Garbers sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 39 - USC 0, CAL 3 -1.19 67.7% -2.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 61

Started Drive at: USC 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 2.29 = -1.19

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.29)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.7%

Win Probability (After): 65.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:08 ESPN team id 25 (4th & 5 at CAL 40) Jamieson Sheahan punt for 51 yds , Michael Jackson III returns for no gain to the USC 9 - USC 0, CAL 3 0.26 62.6% 1.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 91

Started Drive at: CAL 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.00 - -0.26 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.74)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.6%

Win Probability (After): 63.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 12:08 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 9) Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds to the USC 17 - USC 0, CAL 3 0.51 35.8% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 83

Started Drive at: USC 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 0.04 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.96)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.8%

Win Probability (After): 36.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:08 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 2 at USC 17) Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 22 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 3 0.17 36.5% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 78

Started Drive at: USC 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.71 - 0.55 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.45)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.5%

Win Probability (After): 37.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:08 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 22) Vavae Malepeai run for 24 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST down - USC 0, CAL 3 1.64 37.7% 3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 54

Started Drive at: USC 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.36 - 0.71 = 1.64

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.29)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.7%

Win Probability (After): 40.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:08 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 46) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 4 yds to the 50 yard line - USC 0, CAL 3 -0.12 40.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 50

Started Drive at: USC 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 2.36 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.64)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.8%

Win Probability (After): 40.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:08 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 6 at 50) Dart,Jaxson pass complete to Ford,Kyle for 7 yards to the CAL43 (Hicks,Elijah) PENALTY USC Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Jimmons,Liam) 5 yards from CAL50 to USC45. NO PLAY. - USC 0, CAL 3 -0.81 40.7% -2.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 55

Started Drive at: USC 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.43 - 2.24 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.76)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.7%

Win Probability (After): 38.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:08 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 11 at USC 45) PENALTY USC Delay Of Game (Dart,Jaxson) 5 yards from USC45 to USC40. NO PLAY. - USC 0, CAL 3 -0.44 38.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 60

Started Drive at: USC 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.98 - 1.43 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.57)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.4%

Win Probability (After): 37.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:08 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 16 at USC 40) Jaxson Dart pass incomplete - USC 0, CAL 3 -0.90 37.5% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: USC 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.09 - 0.98 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.02)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.5%

Win Probability (After): 35.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:08 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 16 at USC 40) Dart,Jaxson pass incomplete to Manjack IV,Joseph PENALTY CAL Pass Interference (Hearns III,Lu-Magia) 15 yards from USC40 to CAL45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. - USC 0, CAL 3 2.86 35.2% 7.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 45

Started Drive at: USC 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.94 - 0.09 = 2.86

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.91)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 0, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.2%

Win Probability (After): 42.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:28 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 45) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford for 45 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK) - USC 7, CAL 3 4.05 44.6% 11.3%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.95 = 4.05

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.05)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 98 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.6%

Win Probability (After): 55.8%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:22 ESPN team id 25 (Kickoff at CAL 35) Alex Stadthaus kickoff for 63 yds , Nikko Remigio return for 19 yds to the Cal 21 - USC 7, CAL 3 -0.11 46.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 79

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.73 - 0.84 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.16)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.6%

Win Probability (After): 46.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:22 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at CAL 21) Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 3 yds to the Cal 24 - USC 7, CAL 3 -0.50 45.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 76

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - 0.69 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.31)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.3%

Win Probability (After): 45.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:22 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 7 at CAL 24) Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 6 yds to the Cal 30 - USC 7, CAL 3 0.37 45.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 70

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 0.19 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.81)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.4%

Win Probability (After): 45.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:22 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & 1 at CAL 30) Marcel Dancy run for 14 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 3 1.67 45.1% 6.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 56

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.23 - 0.56 = 1.67

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.44)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.1%

Win Probability (After): 51.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:22 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at CAL 44) Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 3 yds to the Cal 47 - USC 7, CAL 3 -0.40 51.4% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 53

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 2.23 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.77)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.4%

Win Probability (After): 49.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:22 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 7 at CAL 47) Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 39 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 3 3.04 49.4% 8.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 14

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.87 - 1.83 = 3.04

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.17)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 116 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.4%

Win Probability (After): 58.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:22 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at USC 14) Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 10 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 3 1.07 58.0% 3.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 4

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.94 - 4.87 = 1.07

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.87)

Score Difference (End): -4 (1.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 126 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.0%

Win Probability (After): 61.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:22 ESPN team id 25 (1st & Goal at USC 4) Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the USC 1 - USC 7, CAL 3 0.19 61.9% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 1

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.13 - 5.94 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): -4 (1.94)

Score Difference (End): -4 (2.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 129 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.9%

Win Probability (After): 62.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:58 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 7 at CAL 47) Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 39 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 3 3.02 48.5% 9.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 14

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.87 - 1.85 = 3.02

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.15)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 58.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:58 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at USC 14) Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 10 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 15 1.09 57.7% 25.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 4

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.91 - 4.81 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.81)

Score Difference (End): -4 (1.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 15

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.7%

Win Probability (After): 82.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:58 ESPN team id 25 (1st & Goal at USC 4) Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the USC 1 - USC 7, CAL 15 0.19 89.5% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 1

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.10 - 5.91 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): 8 (13.91)

Score Difference (End): 8 (14.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 15

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.5%

Win Probability (After): 89.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 15 (15)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:54 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & Goal at USC 1) Timeout CALIFORNIA, clock 04:54 - USC 7, CAL 3 0.00 90.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 1

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.10 - 6.10 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 8 (14.10)

Score Difference (End): 8 (14.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 3

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 129 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.1%

Win Probability (After): 90.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 15 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:51 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & Goal at USC 1) Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) - USC 7, CAL 10 0.93 62.7% 2.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.07 = 0.93

Score Difference (Before): -4 (2.07)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 10

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 130 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.7%

Win Probability (After): 65.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:51 ESPN team id 30 (Kickoff at USC 35) Nick Lopez kickoff for 53 yds - USC 7, CAL 10 0.00 35.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.87 - 0.87 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.13)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.7%

Win Probability (After): 35.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:51 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 25) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 9 yds to the USC 34 - USC 7, CAL 10 0.79 35.7% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.66 - 0.87 = 0.79

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.13)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 87 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.7%

Win Probability (After): 37.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:51 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 1 at USC 34) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 11 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 10 0.44 37.0% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 55

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.10 - 1.66 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.34)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 98 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.0%

Win Probability (After): 38.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:51 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 45) Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Michael Jackson III - USC 7, CAL 10 -0.51 38.4% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 2.10 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.90)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 98 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.4%

Win Probability (After): 37.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:51 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 10 at USC 45) Darwin Barlow run for 8 yds to the Cal 47 - USC 7, CAL 10 0.48 37.7% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 47

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.08 - 1.60 = 0.48

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.40)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 106 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.7%

Win Probability (After): 38.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:06 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 2 at CAL 47) Timeout CALIFORNIA, clock 04:06 - USC 7, CAL 10 0.00 39.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.08 - 2.08 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.92)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 10

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 106 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.0%

Win Probability (After): 39.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 3:53 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 2 at CAL 47) Trey Paster 55 Yd Fumble Return (Dario Longhetto Kick) - USC 7, CAL 17 -8.93 38.1% -21.1%

Play Type: Fumble Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 1.93 = -8.93

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.07)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 161 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.1%

Win Probability (After): 17.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:53 ESPN team id 30 (Kickoff at USC 35) Dario Longhetto kickoff for 62 yds - USC 7, CAL 17 0.00 16.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.76 - 0.76 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.24)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.4%

Win Probability (After): 16.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 3:53 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 25) Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the USC 26 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.48 16.4% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.28 - 0.76 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.24)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.4%

Win Probability (After): 14.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 3:53 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 9 at USC 26) Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the USC 29 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.32 14.3% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 71

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - 0.28 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.72)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.3%

Win Probability (After): 13.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 3:53 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 6 at USC 29) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyle Ford for 7 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 1.59 13.3% 4.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 64

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - -0.04 = 1.59

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.04)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.3%

Win Probability (After): 18.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 3:53 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 36) Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Kyle Ford - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.49 18.0% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.06 - 1.56 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.44)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.0%

Win Probability (After): 17.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 3:53 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 10 at USC 36) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 21 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 1.68 17.3% 3.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 43

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.75 - 1.06 = 1.68

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.94)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.3%

Win Probability (After): 20.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 3:53 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 43) Vavae Malepeai run for 3 yds to the Cal 40 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.17 20.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 40

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 2.75 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.25)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.6%

Win Probability (After): 20.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 3:53 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 7 at CAL 40) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 5 yds to the Cal 35 - USC 7, CAL 17 0.20 20.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 35

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.77 - 2.57 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.43)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.4%

Win Probability (After): 20.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 3:53 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 2 at CAL 35) Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 0.67 20.2% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 31

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 2.77 = 0.67

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.23)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.2%

Win Probability (After): 21.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:49 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 31) Timeout USC, clock 00:49 - USC 7, CAL 17 0.00 24.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 31

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 3.44 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.56)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.1%

Win Probability (After): 24.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:49 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 31) Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Michael Jackson III - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.23 22.1% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 31

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.65 - 2.88 = -0.23

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.12)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.1%

Win Probability (After): 21.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:49 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 10 at CAL 31) Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the Cal 26 - USC 7, CAL 17 0.25 21.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 26

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.89 - 2.65 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.35)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.3%

Win Probability (After): 21.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:49 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 5 at CAL 26) Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Malcolm Epps - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.90 21.0% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 2.89 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.11)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.0%

Win Probability (After): 18.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:49 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 5 at CAL 26) pass incomplete to Malcolm Epps - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.90 21.0% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: CAL 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 2.89 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.11)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.0%

Win Probability (After): 18.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:17 ESPN team id 30 (4th & 5 at CAL 26) Parker Lewis 43 yd FG MISSED - USC 7, CAL 17 -2.53 19.0% -6.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 74

Started Drive at: USC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.59 - 1.94 = -2.53

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.06)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.59)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.0%

Win Probability (After): 12.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at CAL 26) run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 23 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.03 87.1% 4.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 77

Started Drive at: CAL 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 0.03 = -0.03

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.03)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.1%

Win Probability (After): 91.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at CAL 25) Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd to the Cal 26 - USC 7, CAL 17 -2.01 91.9% -4.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 99

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 2.00 = -2.01

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.00)

Score Difference (End): 10 (9.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.9%

Win Probability (After): 87.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 9 at CAL 26) Christopher Brooks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 23 - USC 7, CAL 17 -1.48 91.5% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 77

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 1.49 = -1.48

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.49)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.5%

Win Probability (After): 89.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & 12 at CAL 23) CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (Brayden Rohme) to the Cal 18 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.20 89.7% -0.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 82

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - 0.01 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.01)

Score Difference (End): 10 (9.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.7%

Win Probability (After): 89.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & 17 at CAL 18) pass incomplete to Marcel Dancy - USC 7, CAL 17 -1.01 89.3% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 82

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.20 - -0.19 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): 10 (9.81)

Score Difference (End): 10 (8.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.3%

Win Probability (After): 87.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at 50) Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the Cal 46 - USC 7, CAL 17 0.00 14.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 46

Started Drive at: CAL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 2.11 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.89)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.4%

Win Probability (After): 14.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 6 at CAL 46) Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the Cal 42 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.19 14.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 42

Started Drive at: CAL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.92 - 2.11 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.89)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.2%

Win Probability (After): 14.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 2 at CAL 42) Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 1.04 14.0% 2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 38

Started Drive at: CAL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.96 - 1.92 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.08)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.0%

Win Probability (After): 16.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 38) USC Penalty, Offensive holding (Justin Dedich) to the Cal 48 - USC 7, CAL 17 -1.09 16.4% -2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 48

Started Drive at: CAL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 2.96 = -1.09

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.04)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.4%

Win Probability (After): 13.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 20 at CAL 48) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 7 yds to the Cal 41 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.09 13.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 41

Started Drive at: CAL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.78 - 1.87 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.13)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.6%

Win Probability (After): 13.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 13 at CAL 41) Jaxson Dart sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard line USC Penalty, intentional grounding (Jaxson Dart) to the 50 yard line - USC 7, CAL 17 -1.76 13.4% -2.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 50

Started Drive at: CAL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.02 - 1.78 = -1.76

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.22)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.4%

Win Probability (After): 11.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 22 at 50) CALIFORNIA Penalty, off-side (Cameron Goode) to the Cal 45 - USC 7, CAL 17 0.29 11.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 45

Started Drive at: CAL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.31 - 0.02 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.98)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.3%

Win Probability (After): 11.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 17 at CAL 45) pass incomplete to Erik Krommenhoek - USC 7, CAL 17 -1.41 11.4% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45

Started Drive at: CAL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.10 - 0.31 = -1.41

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.69)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-11.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.4%

Win Probability (After): 9.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at CAL 15) Christopher Brooks run for 8 yds to the Cal 23 - USC 7, CAL 17 0.42 91.5% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 77

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.08 - 1.66 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.66)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.5%

Win Probability (After): 92.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 2 at CAL 23) Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 7 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 0.33 92.0% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 70

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 2.08 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.08)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.0%

Win Probability (After): 92.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at CAL 30) Chase Garbers sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the Cal 21 - USC 7, CAL 17 -1.53 92.7% -2.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 79

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.88 - 2.40 = -1.53

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.40)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.7%

Win Probability (After): 90.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 19 at CAL 21) Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio CALIFORNIA Penalty, tripping (Monroe Young) to the Cal 13 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.35 90.4% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 87

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.53 - 0.88 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.88)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.4%

Win Probability (After): 90.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 35) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Darwin Barlow for 1 yd to the USC 36 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.59 13.1% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 64

Started Drive at: CAL 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.60 - 1.20 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.80)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.1%

Win Probability (After): 12.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 9 at USC 36) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyron Ware-Hudson for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 35 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.83 12.6% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 65

Started Drive at: CAL 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.23 - 0.60 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.40)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.6%

Win Probability (After): 10.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 10 at USC 35) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 17 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 2.56 10.5% 5.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 48

Started Drive at: CAL 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.33 - -0.23 = 2.56

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.23)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.5%

Win Probability (After): 16.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 48) Darwin Barlow run for 2 yds to the Cal 46 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.44 16.1% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 46

Started Drive at: CAL 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.89 - 2.33 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.67)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.1%

Win Probability (After): 13.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 8 at CAL 46) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyron Ware-Hudson for 5 yds to the Cal 41 - USC 7, CAL 17 0.07 13.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 41

Started Drive at: CAL 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.96 - 1.89 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.11)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.9%

Win Probability (After): 13.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 3 at CAL 41) Darwin Barlow run for 7 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 1.31 13.8% 2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 34

Started Drive at: CAL 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.27 - 1.96 = 1.31

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.04)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.8%

Win Probability (After): 16.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 34) Jaxson Dart pass incomplete, broken up by Marqez Bimage - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.57 16.7% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: CAL 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.70 - 3.27 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.73)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.7%

Win Probability (After): 16.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 10 at CAL 34) Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the Cal 29 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.10 16.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 29

Started Drive at: CAL 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 2.70 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.30)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.0%

Win Probability (After): 15.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & 27 at CAL 13) Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 12 yds to the Cal 25 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.68 90.0% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 75

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.03 - -0.35 = -0.68

Score Difference (Before): 10 (9.65)

Score Difference (End): 10 (8.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.0%

Win Probability (After): 88.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 5 at CAL 29) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 18 yds to the Cal 11 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 2.14 15.7% 3.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 11

Started Drive at: CAL 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.74 - 2.59 = 2.14

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.41)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.7%

Win Probability (After): 19.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 11) Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 13 - USC 7, CAL 17 -1.04 19.3% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 13

Started Drive at: CAL 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.70 - 4.74 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.26)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.3%

Win Probability (After): 17.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 12 at CAL 13) Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the Cal 11 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.27 17.5% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 11

Started Drive at: CAL 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 3.70 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.30)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.5%

Win Probability (After): 16.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 10 at CAL 11) Miller Moss pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 8 yds to the Cal 3 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.39 16.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 3

Started Drive at: CAL 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.05 - 3.44 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.56)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.6%

Win Probability (After): 16.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 27 at CAL 13) pass incomplete to Marcel Dancy - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.88 90.9% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 87

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - 0.53 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.53)

Score Difference (End): 10 (9.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.9%

Win Probability (After): 90.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at CAL 3) Marcel Dancy run for 7 yds to the Cal 10 - USC 7, CAL 17 0.54 90.7% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 97 -> 90

Started Drive at: USC 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - 0.61 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.61)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.7%

Win Probability (After): 91.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (4th & 15 at CAL 25) Jamieson Sheahan punt for 40 yds - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.16 88.9% -2.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.20 - -1.03 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): 10 (8.97)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.80)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.9%

Win Probability (After): 86.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 3 at CAL 10) Marcel Dancy run for 2 yds to the Cal 12 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.45 91.0% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 88

Started Drive at: USC 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.70 - 1.15 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.15)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.0%

Win Probability (After): 90.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 25 (Kickoff at CAL 35) Alex Stadthaus kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - USC 7, CAL 17 0.00 88.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: CAL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.79 - 1.79 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.79)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.8%

Win Probability (After): 88.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at CAL 25) Christopher Brooks run for 1 yd to the Cal 26 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.50 88.8% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: CAL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.29 - 1.79 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.79)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.8%

Win Probability (After): 88.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 9 at CAL 26) Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the Cal 23 - USC 7, CAL 17 -1.53 88.4% -2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 77

Started Drive at: CAL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.23 - 1.29 = -1.53

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.29)

Score Difference (End): 10 (9.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.4%

Win Probability (After): 86.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & 12 at CAL 23) PENALTY CAL False Start (Rohme,Brayden) 5 yards from CAL23 to CAL18. NO PLAY. - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.23 86.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 82

Started Drive at: CAL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.46 - -0.23 = -0.23

Score Difference (Before): 10 (9.77)

Score Difference (End): 10 (9.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.4%

Win Probability (After): 85.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & 17 at CAL 18) Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Marcel Dancy - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.92 85.9% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 82

Started Drive at: CAL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.38 - -0.46 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): 10 (9.54)

Score Difference (End): 10 (8.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.9%

Win Probability (After): 83.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:06 ESPN team id 25 (4th & 17 at CAL 18) Jamieson Sheahan punt for 37 yds , Michael Jackson III returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard line - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.77 83.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 50

Started Drive at: CAL 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.95 - -1.18 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): 10 (8.82)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.05)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.7%

Win Probability (After): 83.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 13:06 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at 50) Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the Cal 46 - USC 7, CAL 17 0.03 15.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 46

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 1.92 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.08)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.5%

Win Probability (After): 15.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:06 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 6 at CAL 46) Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the Cal 42 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.20 15.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 42

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.75 - 1.95 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.05)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.5%

Win Probability (After): 15.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:06 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 2 at CAL 42) Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 1.06 15.3% 4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 38

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 1.75 = 1.06

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.25)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.3%

Win Probability (After): 19.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:06 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 38) Malepeai,Vavae rush for 3 yards gain to the CAL35 (Oladejo,Femi) PENALTY USC Holding (Dedich,Justin) 10 yards from CAL38 to CAL48. NO PLAY. - USC 7, CAL 17 -1.14 19.3% -4.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 48

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.67 - 2.81 = -1.14

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.19)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.3%

Win Probability (After): 14.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:06 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 20 at CAL 48) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 7 yds to the Cal 41 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.07 14.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 41

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 1.67 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.33)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.7%

Win Probability (After): 14.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:06 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 13 at CAL 41) USC Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jaxson Dart) to the 50 yard line - USC 7, CAL 17 -1.82 14.5% -2.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 50

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.21 - 1.60 = -1.82

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.40)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.5%

Win Probability (After): 12.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:06 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 22 at 50) PENALTY CAL Offside (Long,Darius) 5 yards from CAL50 to CAL45. NO PLAY. - USC 7, CAL 17 0.31 12.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 45

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.09 - -0.21 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.21)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.4%

Win Probability (After): 12.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:06 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 17 at CAL 45) Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Erik Krommenhoek - USC 7, CAL 17 -1.32 12.7% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.23 - 0.09 = -1.32

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.91)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-11.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.7%

Win Probability (After): 11.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:22 ESPN team id 30 (4th & 17 at CAL 45) Ben Griffiths punt for 32 yds - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.37 11.5% 0.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 85

Started Drive at: 50

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.59 - -1.22 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-11.22)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.59)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.5%

Win Probability (After): 11.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:22 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at CAL 15) Christopher Brooks run for 8 yds to the Cal 23 - USC 7, CAL 17 0.47 88.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 77

Started Drive at: CAL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.20 - 1.73 = 0.47

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.73)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.4%

Win Probability (After): 88.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:22 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 2 at CAL 23) Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 7 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 0.30 88.5% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 70

Started Drive at: CAL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.50 - 2.20 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.20)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.5%

Win Probability (After): 88.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:22 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at CAL 30) Chase Garbers sacked by Tuli Tuipulotu for a loss of 9 yards to the Cal 21 - USC 7, CAL 17 -1.56 88.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 79

Started Drive at: CAL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.94 - 2.50 = -1.56

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.50)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.5%

Win Probability (After): 88.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:22 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 19 at CAL 21) CALIFORNIA Penalty, Tripping (-13 Yards) to the Cal 13 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.38 88.0% 0.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 87

Started Drive at: CAL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 0.94 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.94)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.0%

Win Probability (After): 88.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:22 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & 27 at CAL 13) Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 12 yds to the Cal 25 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.63 88.0% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 75

Started Drive at: CAL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.95 - -0.31 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 10 (9.69)

Score Difference (End): 10 (9.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.0%

Win Probability (After): 86.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:22 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 27 at CAL 13) Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Marcel Dancy - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.87 88.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 87

Started Drive at: CAL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.31 - 0.56 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.56)

Score Difference (End): 10 (9.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.5%

Win Probability (After): 88.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:07 ESPN team id 25 (4th & 15 at CAL 25) Jamieson Sheahan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Michael Jackson III at the USC 35 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.01 85.2% 0.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65

Started Drive at: CAL 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.14 - -1.12 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): 10 (8.88)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.86)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.2%

Win Probability (After): 85.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:07 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 35) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Darwin Barlow for 1 yd to the USC 36 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.60 14.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 64

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.51 - 1.10 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.90)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.8%

Win Probability (After): 14.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:07 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 9 at USC 36) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyron Ware-Hudson for 1 yd to the USC 35 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.83 14.8% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 65

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.32 - 0.51 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.49)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.8%

Win Probability (After): 12.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:07 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 10 at USC 35) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 17 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 2.60 12.5% 3.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 48

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - -0.32 = 2.60

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.32)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.5%

Win Probability (After): 16.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:07 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 48) Darwin Barlow run for 2 yds to the Cal 46 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.44 16.4% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 46

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.84 - 2.27 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.73)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.4%

Win Probability (After): 15.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:07 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 8 at CAL 46) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyron Ware-Hudson for 5 yds to the Cal 41 - USC 7, CAL 17 0.10 15.9% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 41

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.94 - 1.84 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.16)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.9%

Win Probability (After): 15.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:07 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 3 at CAL 41) Darwin Barlow run for 7 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 1.32 15.7% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 34

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.26 - 1.94 = 1.32

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.06)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.7%

Win Probability (After): 18.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:07 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 34) Jaxson Dart pass incomplete - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.58 18.2% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.68 - 3.26 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.74)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.2%

Win Probability (After): 17.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:07 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 10 at CAL 34) Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the Cal 29 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.08 17.2% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 29

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 2.68 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.32)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.2%

Win Probability (After): 16.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:07 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 5 at CAL 29) Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tahj Washington for 18 yds to the Cal 11 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 2.18 16.6% 7.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 11

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.77 - 2.59 = 2.18

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.41)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.6%

Win Probability (After): 23.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:07 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 11) Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the Cal 13 - USC 7, CAL 17 -1.13 23.8% -5.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 13

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.64 - 4.77 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.23)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 16 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.8%

Win Probability (After): 18.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:07 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 12 at CAL 13) Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the Cal 11 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.17 18.5% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 11

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 3.64 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.36)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 17 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.5%

Win Probability (After): 18.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:07 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 10 at CAL 11) Miller Moss pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 8 yds to the Cal 3 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.33 18.1% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 3

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.14 - 3.47 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.53)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 18 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.1%

Win Probability (After): 18.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:13 ESPN team id 30 (4th & 2 at CAL 3) Erik Krommenhoek run for no gain to the Cal 3 - USC 7, CAL 17 -3.62 16.9% -3.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 97

Started Drive at: USC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.47 - 3.15 = -3.62

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.85)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.47)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 19 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.9%

Win Probability (After): 13.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:13 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at CAL 3) Marcel Dancy run for 7 yds to the Cal 10 - USC 7, CAL 17 0.54 91.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 97 -> 90

Started Drive at: CAL 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - 0.61 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.61)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.2%

Win Probability (After): 91.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 3 at CAL 10) Marcel Dancy run for 2 yds to the Cal 12 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.43 91.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 88

Started Drive at: CAL 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.72 - 1.15 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.15)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.0%

Win Probability (After): 91.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & 1 at CAL 12) Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for no gain to the Cal 12 - USC 7, CAL 17 -1.72 90.2% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 88

Started Drive at: CAL 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.02 - 0.70 = -1.72

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.70)

Score Difference (End): 10 (8.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.2%

Win Probability (After): 89.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:13 ESPN team id 25 (4th & 1 at CAL 12) Jamieson Sheahan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Michael Jackson III at the USC 45 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.73 89.3% -3.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 55

Started Drive at: CAL 3

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.77 - -1.04 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): 10 (8.96)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.23)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.3%

Win Probability (After): 85.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:13 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 45) Miller Moss pass incomplete to Kyle Ford - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.52 14.4% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: USC 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.27 - 1.78 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.22)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.4%

Win Probability (After): 13.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:13 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 10 at USC 45) Brandon Campbell run for 7 yds to the Cal 48 - USC 7, CAL 17 0.21 13.7% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 48

Started Drive at: USC 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 1.27 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.73)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.7%

Win Probability (After): 13.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:13 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 3 at CAL 48) Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 16 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 2.00 13.8% 3.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 32

Started Drive at: USC 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.48 - 1.48 = 2.00

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.52)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.8%

Win Probability (After): 16.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:13 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 32) Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 4 yds to the Cal 36 - USC 7, CAL 17 -1.49 16.9% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 36

Started Drive at: USC 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.98 - 3.48 = -1.49

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.52)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.9%

Win Probability (After): 14.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:13 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 14 at CAL 36) Brandon Campbell run for 13 yds to the Cal 23 - USC 7, CAL 17 1.68 14.4% 2.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 23

Started Drive at: USC 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.66 - 1.98 = 1.68

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.02)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.4%

Win Probability (After): 17.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:13 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 1 at CAL 23) Brandon Campbell run for 11 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 0.94 17.2% 2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 12

Started Drive at: USC 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.61 - 3.66 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.34)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.2%

Win Probability (After): 19.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:13 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 12) Brandon Campbell run for 2 yds to the Cal 10 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.51 19.5% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 10

Started Drive at: USC 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.10 - 4.61 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.39)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.5%

Win Probability (After): 18.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:13 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 8 at CAL 10) PENALTY USC False Start (Dedich,Justin) 5 yards from CAL10 to CAL15. NO PLAY. - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.51 18.8% -1.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 15

Started Drive at: USC 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.59 - 4.10 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.90)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.8%

Win Probability (After): 17.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:13 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 13 at CAL 15) Miller Moss pass complete to Kyle Ford for 7 yds to the Cal 8 - USC 7, CAL 17 0.06 17.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 8

Started Drive at: USC 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.65 - 3.59 = 0.06

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.41)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.1%

Win Probability (After): 17.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:47 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 6 at CAL 8) Miller Moss sacked by Daniel Scott for a loss of 27 yards to the Cal 35 Miller Moss fumbled, recovered by Cal Lu-Magia Hearns III , return for 0 yards - USC 7, CAL 17 -6.34 15.4% -8.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 65

Started Drive at: USC 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.60 - 3.74 = -6.34

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.26)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.60)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.4%

Win Probability (After): 6.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:47 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 1 at USC 35) Chase Garbers run for 19 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 0.87 95.6% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 16

Started Drive at: CAL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.05 - 4.18 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): 10 (14.18)

Score Difference (End): 10 (15.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.6%

Win Probability (After): 96.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:47 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at USC 16) Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds to the USC 14 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.54 96.9% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 14

Started Drive at: CAL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - 5.05 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 10 (15.05)

Score Difference (End): 10 (14.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.9%

Win Probability (After): 96.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:47 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 8 at USC 14) Chase Garbers run for 4 yds to the USC 10 - USC 7, CAL 17 -0.12 96.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 10

Started Drive at: CAL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.39 - 4.52 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): 10 (14.52)

Score Difference (End): 10 (14.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.3%

Win Probability (After): 96.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:47 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & 4 at USC 10) Chase Garbers pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 5 yds to the USC 5 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 1.49 96.0% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 5

Started Drive at: CAL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.89 - 4.39 = 1.49

Score Difference (Before): 10 (14.39)

Score Difference (End): 10 (15.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.0%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:47 ESPN team id 25 (1st & Goal at USC 5) Christopher Brooks run for 3 yds to the USC 2 - USC 7, CAL 17 0.09 97.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 2

Started Drive at: CAL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.97 - 5.89 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): 10 (15.89)

Score Difference (End): 10 (15.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:47 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at CAL 35) Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 21 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 1.02 93.7% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 44

Started Drive at: CAL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.48 - 2.46 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.46)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.7%

Win Probability (After): 94.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:47 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at USC 44) Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 9 yds to the USC 35 - USC 7, CAL 17 0.70 94.9% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 35

Started Drive at: CAL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.18 - 3.48 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.48)

Score Difference (End): 10 (14.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.9%

Win Probability (After): 95.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:37 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & Goal at USC 2) Christopher Brooks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK) - USC 7, CAL 24 1.16 98.9% 0.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: CAL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.84 = 1.16

Score Difference (Before): 10 (15.84)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.9%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:31 ESPN team id 30 (Kickoff at USC 35) Dario Longhetto kickoff for 59 yds , Tahj Washington return for 17 yds to the CALIFORNIA 48 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the USC 13 - USC 7, CAL 17 -1.16 0.7% 3.6%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 87

Started Drive at: CAL 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.91 - 0.26 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-24.90)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 4.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:31 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 13) Miller Moss pass complete to Michael Jackson III for 11 yds to the USC 24 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 17 0.54 5.0% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 76

Started Drive at: USC 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.50 - -0.04 = 0.54

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.04)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.0%

Win Probability (After): 6.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:31 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 24) Vavae Malepeai run for 9 yds to the USC 33 - USC 7, CAL 24 0.45 6.6% -5.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 67

Started Drive at: USC 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 0.50 = 0.45

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.50)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-16.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.6%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:31 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 1 at USC 33) Miller Moss run for 10 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 24 0.60 0.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 57

Started Drive at: USC 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.55 - 0.95 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.05)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-15.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:31 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at USC 43) Miller Moss pass incomplete to Michael Jackson III - USC 7, CAL 24 -0.52 1.0% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: USC 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 1.55 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-15.45)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-15.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:31 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 10 at USC 43) Miller Moss pass incomplete to Tahj Washington - USC 7, CAL 24 -0.59 0.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: USC 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 1.03 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-15.97)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-16.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:31 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 10 at USC 43) Vavae Malepeai run for 12 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 24 1.96 0.7% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 45

Started Drive at: USC 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 0.43 = 1.96

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.57)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-14.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.7%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:31 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 45) Miller Moss pass incomplete to Brandon Campbell - USC 7, CAL 24 -0.52 1.0% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45

Started Drive at: USC 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.87 - 2.39 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-14.61)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-15.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:31 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 10 at CAL 45) Miller Moss pass complete to Brandon Campbell for 16 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST down - USC 7, CAL 24 1.73 1.0% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 29

Started Drive at: USC 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.60 - 1.87 = 1.73

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-15.13)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-13.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:31 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 29) Miller Moss run for 3 yds to the Cal 26 - USC 7, CAL 24 -0.24 1.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 26

Started Drive at: USC 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.36 - 3.60 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-13.40)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-13.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:31 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 7 at CAL 26) Miller Moss pass complete to John Jackson III for 4 yds to the Cal 22 - USC 7, CAL 24 0.02 1.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 22

Started Drive at: USC 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.37 - 3.36 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-13.64)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-13.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:31 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 3 at CAL 22) Brandon Campbell run for no gain to the Cal 22 - USC 7, CAL 24 -1.62 1.2% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 22

Started Drive at: USC 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.76 - 3.37 = -1.62

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-13.63)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-15.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:31 ESPN team id 30 (4th & 3 at CAL 22) Moss,Miller pass intercepted by Hearns III,Lu-Magia at CAL02 PENALTY CAL Offside (Oladejo,Femi) 5 yards from CAL22 to CAL17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. - USC 7, CAL 24 2.71 1.1% 0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 17

Started Drive at: USC 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.46 - 1.76 = 2.71

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-15.24)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-12.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 5:31 ESPN team id 30 (1st & 10 at CAL 17) Brandon Campbell run for 1 yd to the Cal 16 - USC 7, CAL 24 -0.45 1.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 16

Started Drive at: USC 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.02 - 4.46 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-12.54)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-12.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 5:31 ESPN team id 30 (2nd & 9 at CAL 16) Miller Moss pass incomplete to Brandon Campbell - USC 7, CAL 24 -0.75 1.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: USC 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.26 - 4.02 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-12.98)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-13.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 7, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:36 ESPN team id 30 (3rd & 9 at CAL 16) Miller Moss pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 16 yds for a TD, (Parker Lewis KICK) - USC 14, CAL 24 4.01 0.6% 4.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 99

Started Drive at: USC 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.99 = 4.01

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-14.01)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 14, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.6%

Win Probability (After): 5.0%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:36 ESPN team id 25 (Kickoff at CAL 35) kickoff for 8 yds - USC 14, CAL 24 0.95 99.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 43

Started Drive at: USC 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.89 - 0.94 = 0.95

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.94)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 14, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:36 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at USC 43) Marcel Dancy run for 8 yds to the USC 35 - USC 14, CAL 24 0.70 99.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 35

Started Drive at: USC 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 1.89 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.89)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 14, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:30 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 2 at USC 35) Timeout USC, clock 01:30 - USC 14, CAL 24 0.00 99.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35

Started Drive at: USC 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 2.59 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.59)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 14, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 99.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:30 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 2 at USC 35) Marcel Dancy run for 4 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST down - USC 14, CAL 24 0.10 99.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 31

Started Drive at: USC 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.65 - 2.55 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.55)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 14, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:25 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at USC 31) Timeout USC, clock 01:25 - USC 14, CAL 24 0.00 99.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 31

Started Drive at: USC 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.65 - 2.65 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.65)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 14, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:25 ESPN team id 25 (1st & 10 at USC 31) Marcel Dancy run for 1 yd to the USC 30 - USC 14, CAL 24 -0.28 99.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 30

Started Drive at: USC 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 2.68 = -0.28

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.68)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 14, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:21 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 9 at USC 30) Timeout USC, clock 01:21 - USC 14, CAL 24 0.00 99.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: USC 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 2.40 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.40)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 14, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:21 ESPN team id 25 (2nd & 9 at USC 30) run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 34 - USC 14, CAL 24 -1.16 99.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 34

Started Drive at: USC 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.27 - 2.43 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.43)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 14, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:35 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & 13 at USC 34) Timeout CALIFORNIA, clock 00:35 - USC 14, CAL 24 0.00 99.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: USC 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.27 - 1.27 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.27)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 14, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.4%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 25 (3rd & 13 at USC 34) run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 35 - USC 14, CAL 24 0.03 98.6% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 35

Started Drive at: USC 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.72 - 0.69 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.69)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: USC 14, CAL 24

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.6%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 24 (24)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2