North Texas 14 @ Miami (OH) 27

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 3.74 | Odds: M-OH -2, O/U 56.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

Download Chart

Team Stats [show/hide]

Overall ESPN team id 249 ESPN team id 193
Total Plays 7588
Total EPA -7.914.93
  Offensive EPA -7.1915.02
  Special Teams EPA -0.700.61
  Penalty EPA -2.035.5
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 2.02-6.20
Production ESPN team id 249 ESPN team id 193
Scrimmage Plays 6479
  Yards 361468
  Yards/Play 5.645.92
  EPA -7.1915.02
  EPA/Play -0.110.19
Passes 34 (53%)36 (46%)
  Yards 228228
  Yards/Play 6.716.33
  EPA -6.805.93
  EPA/Play -0.200.16
Rushes 30 (47%)43 (54%)
  Yards 98229
  Yards/Play 3.275.33
  EPA -0.399.09
  EPA/Play -0.010.21
Rushing ESPN team id 249 ESPN team id 193
Scrimmage Plays 6479
Rushes 30 (47%)43 (54%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 2 (7%)0 (0%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 1 (50%)0 (0%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 4 (13%)10 (23%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 14 (47%)18 (42%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 11 (37%)23 (53%)
OL Line Yards 57.764.5
  Per Carry 1.921.50
Highlight Yards 9.589
  Per Rush Opportunity 0.863.87
Explosiveness ESPN team id 249 ESPN team id 193
Total Plays 7588
Scrimmage Plays 6479
Explosive Plays 3 (5%)6 (8%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 3 (9%)2 (6%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 0 (0%)4 (9%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -16.65-1.84
  EPA/Play -0.27-0.03
  When Passing -16.25-1.68
    EPA/Play -0.48-0.05
  When Rushing -0.39-0.17
    EPA/Play -0.010.00
Situational ESPN team id 249 ESPN team id 193
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 26 (41%)38 (48%)
  When Passing 14 (41%)15 (42%)
  When Rushing 12 (40%)23 (53%)
  On Standard Downs 19 (42%)25 (50%)
  On Passing Downs 7 (37%)13 (45%)
  On Early Downs 20 (41%)28 (44%)
  On Late Downs 6 (40%)10 (63%)
  During "Middle 8" 5 (45%)7 (47%)
Early Downs 4963
  First Downs Created 13 (27%)14 (22%)
  EPA -0.394.84
  EPA/Play -0.010.08
  Passes 23 (47%)28 (44%)
  Rushes 26 (53%)35 (56%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 11 (48%)11 (39%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 9 (35%)17 (49%)
"Middle 8" Plays 1115
  EPA -0.826.49
  EPA/play -0.070.43
  Passes 5 (45%)9 (60%)
  Rushes 6 (55%)6 (40%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 3 (60%)4 (44%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 2 (33%)3 (50%)
Drives ESPN team id 249 ESPN team id 193
Total 1011
Avg Starting Field Position Own 24Own 23
Plays/Drive 8.728.77
Yards/Drive 50.9549.92
Available Yards % 67%65%
Defensive ESPN team id 249 ESPN team id 193
Scrimmage Plays 7964
Stop Rate 19%45%
Havoc Plays Created 11 (14%)6 (9%)
  Passing 6 (17%)4 (12%)
  Rushing 5 (12%)2 (7%)
TFLs Generated 114
  Passing 62
  Rushing 52
Sacks Generated 5 (14%)2 (6%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 02
Fumbles Forced 10
Turnovers ESPN team id 249 ESPN team id 193
Turnovers 20
  Fumbles 01
  Fumbles Lost 00
  Fumbles Recovered 01
  Interceptions 20
Turnover Margin -22
Expected Turnovers 0.90.5
Expected Turnover Margin -0.40.4
Turnover Luck (pts) -7.87.8
Special Teams ESPN team id 249 ESPN team id 193
Total Plays 11 9
Total EPA -0.7 0.61
  Field Goal EPA 0 0.74
  Punting EPA 1.33 0.92
  Kickoff Return EPA -2.03 -1.04

North Texas [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Austin Aune 15/32, 228 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 2 Scks, 42.1 xQBR 6.71 -0.20 -6.80 41% -21.0%
Rush attempts
Austin Aune 7 carries, 37 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.29 0.60 4.22 71% 13.0%
Isaiah Johnson 6 carries, 21 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.50 0.65 3.91 83% 13.0%
Ayo Adeyi 6 carries, 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.83 -0.35 -2.08 17% -8.0%
Ikaika Ragsdale 11 carries, 23 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.09 -0.59 -6.44 9% -13.0%
Pass targets
Roderic Burns 4 catches (5 targets), 87 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 21.75 1.21 6.06 80% 13.0%
Jason Pirtle 3 catches (4 targets), 29 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.67 0.92 3.67 50% 6.0%
Jake Roberts 1 catch (1 target), 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 30.00 2.85 2.85 100% 5.0%
Damon Ward Jr. 6 catches (10 targets), 70 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.67 0.23 2.30 60% 9.0%
Isaiah Johnson 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.56 -0.56 0% -1.0%
Asher Alberding 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.64 -0.64 0% -4.0%
Detraveon Brown 1 catch (3 targets), 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.00 -0.23 -0.68 33% -1.0%
Khatib Lyles 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.11 -1.11 0% -3.0%
Christian Lee 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -3.29 -3.29 0% -5.0%

Miami (OH) [show/hide]

Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Brett Gabbert 22/31, 228 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 5 Scks, 57.2 xQBR 6.33 0.16 5.93 42% 26.0%
Rush attempts
Keyon Mozee 9 carries, 77 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.56 0.53 4.74 56% 20.0%
Brett Gabbert 8 carries, 22 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.75 0.55 4.43 62% 7.0%
Kenny Tracy 14 carries, 92 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.57 0.14 1.96 43% 3.0%
Darez Snider 2 carries, 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.50 -0.28 -0.55 50% -2.0%
Kevin Davis 10 carries, 33 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.30 -0.15 -1.49 60% -8.0%
Pass targets
Jack Sorenson 7 catches (10 targets), 116 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.57 0.57 5.75 50% 16.0%
Kevin Davis 5 catches (6 targets), 24 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.80 0.41 2.48 50% 15.0%
Nate Muersch 1 catch (1 target), 11 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.00 2.37 2.37 100% 4.0%
Rhett Williams 2 catches (2 targets), 24 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.00 0.62 1.23 100% 4.0%
Jack DeJarld 1 catch (1 target), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.67 0.67 100% 2.0%
Jalen Walker 4 catches (7 targets), 34 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.50 0.05 0.35 43% -3.0%
Jeremiah Batiste 1 catch (1 target), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 -0.04 -0.04 0% -1.0%
Andrew Homer 1 catch (2 targets), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 -0.39 -0.78 0% -2.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 6:04 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 37) Austin Aune pass intercepted John Saunders Jr. return for 31 yds to the NoTex 30 - UNT 14, M-OH 13 -5.49 62.8% -19.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 30

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.81 - 1.67 = -5.49

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.67)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.81)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.8%

Win Probability (After): 43.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:50 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & 7 at M-OH 28) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 51 yds to the NoTex 21 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 20 4.67 74.8% 9.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 21

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.71 - 0.03 = 4.67

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.03)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.8%

Win Probability (After): 84.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:00 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 8 at UNT 12) Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 43 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST down - UNT 7, M-OH 10 3.50 40.6% 6.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 45

Started Drive at: UNT 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.95 - -0.55 = 3.50

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.55)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.6%

Win Probability (After): 46.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:16 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 9 at M-OH 14) Austin Aune pass intercepted Jacquez Warren return for 13 yds to the MiaOh 13 - UNT 14, M-OH 20 -3.44 41.4% -14.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 87

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.20 - 3.24 = -3.44

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.76)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.20)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.4%

Win Probability (After): 27.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:18 ESPN team id 249 (4th & Goal at M-OH 4) Austin Aune pass incomplete to Christian Lee - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -3.29 9.3% -5.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 96

Started Drive at: UNT 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.47 - 2.82 = -3.29

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-10.18)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.47)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.3%

Win Probability (After): 4.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 11:20 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 11 at M-OH 42) Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 14 yds to the MiaOh 28 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 27 3.11 8.3% 3.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 28

Started Drive at: UNT 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.97 - 0.86 = 3.11

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-12.14)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-9.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.3%

Win Probability (After): 12.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 10:00 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & Goal at M-OH 1) Ikaika Ragsdale run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 4 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -3.03 15.3% -4.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 4

Started Drive at: UNT 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 5.85 = -3.03

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-7.15)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-10.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.3%

Win Probability (After): 10.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:08 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & Goal at UNT 5) Kevin Davis 5 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Graham Nicholson Kick) - UNT 14, M-OH 20 2.93 53.2% 18.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNT 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.07 = 2.93

Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.07)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.2%

Win Probability (After): 71.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 13 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:15 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 10 at UNT 25) Austin Aune pass complete to Jake Roberts for 30 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST down - UNT 0, M-OH 3 2.85 44.8% 4.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 45

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.89 - 0.05 = 2.85

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.95)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.8%

Win Probability (After): 49.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:50 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & 8 at UNT 43) Brett Gabbert run for 4 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Gabriel Murphy) to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 27 2.56 93.7% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 24

Started Drive at: M-OH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.58 - 2.04 = 2.56

Score Difference (Before): 13 (15.02)

Score Difference (End): 13 (17.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.7%

Win Probability (After): 95.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q2 6:04 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 37) Austin Aune pass intercepted John Saunders Jr. return for 31 yds to the NoTex 30 - UNT 14, M-OH 13 -5.49 62.8% -19.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 30

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.81 - 1.67 = -5.49

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.67)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.81)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.8%

Win Probability (After): 43.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:08 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & Goal at UNT 5) Kevin Davis 5 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Graham Nicholson Kick) - UNT 14, M-OH 20 2.93 53.2% 18.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNT 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.07 = 2.93

Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.07)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.2%

Win Probability (After): 71.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 13 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:16 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 9 at M-OH 14) Austin Aune pass intercepted Jacquez Warren return for 13 yds to the MiaOh 13 - UNT 14, M-OH 20 -3.44 41.4% -14.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 87

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.20 - 3.24 = -3.44

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.76)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.20)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.4%

Win Probability (After): 27.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:27 ESPN team id 193 (4th & 5 at UNT 30) Graham Nicholson 48 Yd Field Goal - UNT 0, M-OH 3 1.52 50.0% 10.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: M-OH 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.48 = 1.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.48)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.0%

Win Probability (After): 60.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:32 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & Goal at M-OH 2) Austin Aune 2 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick) - UNT 14, M-OH 10 1.73 55.2% 9.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNT 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.27 = 1.73

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.27)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.2%

Win Probability (After): 64.9%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:50 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & 7 at M-OH 28) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 51 yds to the NoTex 21 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 20 4.67 74.8% 9.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 21

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.71 - 0.03 = 4.67

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.03)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.8%

Win Probability (After): 84.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:30 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 10 at M-OH 34) Keyon Mozee run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Sean-Thomas Faulkner) to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST down - UNT 0, M-OH 0 2.53 50.7% 7.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 35

Started Drive at: M-OH 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.78 - 1.22 = 2.53

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.25)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.7%

Win Probability (After): 58.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:52 ESPN team id 193 (4th & 10 at UNT 18) Graham Nicholson 36 Yd Field Goal - UNT 14, M-OH 13 1.09 42.2% 6.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.91 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.09)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 13

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.2%

Win Probability (After): 49.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 3:59 ESPN team id 193 (1st & Goal at UNT 8) Kenny Tracy 8 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick) - UNT 7, M-OH 10 1.60 50.5% 6.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.40 = 1.60

Score Difference (Before): -4 (1.40)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.5%

Win Probability (After): 56.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:20 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 10 at M-OH 18) Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 11 yds to the MiaOh 7 for a 1ST down - UNT 7, M-OH 10 2.21 51.1% 6.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 7

Started Drive at: UNT 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.49 - 3.28 = 2.21

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.28)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.1%

Win Probability (After): 57.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 12:27 ESPN team id 193 (4th & 5 at UNT 30) Graham Nicholson 48 Yd Field Goal - UNT 0, M-OH 3 1.52 50.0% 10.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: M-OH 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.48 = 1.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.48)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.0%

Win Probability (After): 60.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 8:06 ESPN team id 249 (1st & Goal at M-OH 1) Isaiah Johnson 1 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick) - UNT 7, M-OH 3 0.56 58.0% 3.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.44 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): -3 (3.44)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.0%

Win Probability (After): 61.2%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:59 ESPN team id 193 (1st & Goal at UNT 8) Kenny Tracy 8 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick) - UNT 7, M-OH 10 1.60 50.5% 6.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.40 = 1.60

Score Difference (Before): -4 (1.40)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.5%

Win Probability (After): 56.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:32 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & Goal at M-OH 2) Austin Aune 2 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick) - UNT 14, M-OH 10 1.73 55.2% 9.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNT 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.27 = 1.73

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.27)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.2%

Win Probability (After): 64.9%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:52 ESPN team id 193 (4th & 10 at UNT 18) Graham Nicholson 36 Yd Field Goal - UNT 14, M-OH 13 1.09 42.2% 6.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.91 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.09)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 13

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.2%

Win Probability (After): 49.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 4:08 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & Goal at UNT 5) Kevin Davis 5 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Graham Nicholson Kick) - UNT 14, M-OH 20 2.93 53.2% 18.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNT 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.07 = 2.93

Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.07)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.2%

Win Probability (After): 71.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 13 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:31 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 10 at UNT 11) Nate Muersch 11 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Graham Nicholson Kick) - UNT 14, M-OH 27 2.37 84.1% 4.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 99

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.63 = 2.37

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.63)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.1%

Win Probability (After): 88.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 249 (Kickoff at UNT 35) Graham Nicholson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UNT 0, M-OH 0 0.00 44.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.2%

Win Probability (After): 44.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:40 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 25) Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the NoTex 27 - UNT 0, M-OH 0 -0.73 51.5% -5.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.32 - 1.05 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.5%

Win Probability (After): 46.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:25 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 8 at UNT 27) Austin Aune run for 8 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST down - UNT 0, M-OH 0 1.47 50.3% 3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 65

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.96 - 0.49 = 1.47

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.3%

Win Probability (After): 53.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:09 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 35) Austin Aune pass incomplete - UNT 0, M-OH 0 -0.67 53.7% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.28 - 1.95 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.7%

Win Probability (After): 52.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:03 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 10 at UNT 35) Austin Aune pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr. - UNT 0, M-OH 0 -0.98 51.1% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.36 - 1.34 = -0.98

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.1%

Win Probability (After): 48.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:59 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 10 at UNT 35) Austin Aune pass incomplete to Jason Pirtle - UNT 0, M-OH 0 -1.57 48.8% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.14 - 0.43 = -1.57

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.43)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.8%

Win Probability (After): 45.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:49 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 10 at UNT 35) Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 38 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 7 yds to the MiaOh 34 - UNT 0, M-OH 0 -0.90 46.0% -1.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 66

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.98 - -1.08 = -0.90

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.98)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.0%

Win Probability (After): 44.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 13:43 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at M-OH 34) Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Andrew Homer - UNT 0, M-OH 0 -0.66 54.6% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: M-OH 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.25 - 1.91 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.91)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.6%

Win Probability (After): 52.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:30 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 10 at M-OH 34) Keyon Mozee run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Sean-Thomas Faulkner) to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST down - UNT 0, M-OH 0 2.53 50.7% 7.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 35

Started Drive at: M-OH 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.78 - 1.22 = 2.53

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.25)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.7%

Win Probability (After): 58.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:20 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at UNT 35) Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack Sorenson - UNT 0, M-OH 0 -0.61 57.3% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35

Started Drive at: M-OH 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.20 - 3.81 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.81)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.3%

Win Probability (After): 56.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:10 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 10 at UNT 35) Keyon Mozee run for 5 yds to the NoTex 30 - UNT 0, M-OH 0 -0.07 56.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 30

Started Drive at: M-OH 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 3.18 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.1%

Win Probability (After): 55.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:32 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & 5 at UNT 30) Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack Sorenson - UNT 0, M-OH 0 -1.60 54.8% -4.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: M-OH 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.51 - 3.10 = -1.60

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.8%

Win Probability (After): 50.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:27 ESPN team id 193 (4th & 5 at UNT 30) Graham Nicholson 48 Yd Field Goal - UNT 0, M-OH 3 1.52 50.0% 10.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: M-OH 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.48 = 1.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.48)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.0%

Win Probability (After): 60.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 12:27 ESPN team id 249 (Kickoff at UNT 35) Graham Nicholson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UNT 0, M-OH 3 0.00 46.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 0.64 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.36)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.1%

Win Probability (After): 46.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:22 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 25) Austin Aune pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr. - UNT 0, M-OH 3 -0.60 46.3% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.04 - 0.64 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.36)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.3%

Win Probability (After): 44.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:15 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 10 at UNT 25) Austin Aune pass complete to Jake Roberts for 30 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST down - UNT 0, M-OH 3 2.85 44.8% 4.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 45

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.89 - 0.05 = 2.85

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.95)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.8%

Win Probability (After): 49.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at M-OH 45) Ikaika Ragsdale run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST down - UNT 0, M-OH 3 0.92 49.5% 3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 33

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.82 - 2.91 = 0.92

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.09)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.5%

Win Probability (After): 52.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:30 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at M-OH 33) Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 10 yds to the MiaOh 23 for a 1ST down - UNT 0, M-OH 3 0.39 51.7% 2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 23

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 3.91 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.91)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.7%

Win Probability (After): 54.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at M-OH 23) Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 4 yds to the MiaOh 19 - UNT 0, M-OH 3 0.05 54.6% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 19

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 4.29 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.29)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.6%

Win Probability (After): 54.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:40 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 6 at M-OH 19) Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 18 - UNT 0, M-OH 3 -0.69 56.1% -3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 18

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.60 - 4.28 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.28)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.1%

Win Probability (After): 53.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 5 at M-OH 18) Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 4 yds to the MiaOh 14 - UNT 0, M-OH 3 -0.08 53.8% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 14

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 3.69 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.69)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.8%

Win Probability (After): 53.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:45 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 1 at M-OH 14) Isaiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 12 for a 1ST down - UNT 0, M-OH 3 1.29 53.2% 4.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 12

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.98 - 3.68 = 1.29

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.68)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.2%

Win Probability (After): 57.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 9:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at M-OH 12) Austin Aune run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 9 - UNT 0, M-OH 3 -0.27 58.7% -1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 9

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.69 - 4.96 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.96)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.7%

Win Probability (After): 56.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:40 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 7 at M-OH 9) Isaiah Johnson run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 4 - UNT 0, M-OH 3 0.40 56.8% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 4

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.10 - 4.69 = 0.40

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.69)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.8%

Win Probability (After): 58.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:20 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 2 at M-OH 4) Isaiah Johnson run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 1 for a 1ST down - UNT 0, M-OH 3 1.38 56.5% 2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 1

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.45 - 5.07 = 1.38

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.07)

Score Difference (End): -3 (3.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 0, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.5%

Win Probability (After): 58.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:06 ESPN team id 249 (1st & Goal at M-OH 1) Isaiah Johnson 1 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick) - UNT 7, M-OH 3 0.56 58.0% 3.1%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.44 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): -3 (3.44)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.0%

Win Probability (After): 61.2%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:06 ESPN team id 193 (Kickoff at M-OH 35) Ethan Mooney kickoff for 54 yds , Kevin Davis return for 14 yds to the MiaOh 25 - UNT 7, M-OH 3 -1.04 37.5% -1.3%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.33 - 0.71 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.29)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.5%

Win Probability (After): 36.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:00 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at M-OH 25) Brett Gabbert sacked by Gabriel Murphy for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaOh 17 - UNT 7, M-OH 3 -1.48 38.6% -4.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 83

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.77 - 0.70 = -1.48

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.30)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, -8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.6%

Win Probability (After): 33.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:40 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 18 at M-OH 17) Keyon Mozee run for 14 yds to the MiaOh 31 - UNT 7, M-OH 3 0.98 34.6% 2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 69

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - -0.79 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.79)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.6%

Win Probability (After): 36.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:20 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & 4 at M-OH 31) Gabbert, Brett pass incomplete to Sorenson, Jack, PENALTY NORTHTEXAS pass interference (Faulkner, Sean-Thomas) 15 yards to the MIAMIOH46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMIOH. - UNT 7, M-OH 3 2.07 36.6% 5.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 54

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.28 - 0.21 = 2.07

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.79)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.6%

Win Probability (After): 41.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:00 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at M-OH 46) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 6 yds to the NoTex 48 - UNT 7, M-OH 3 0.28 41.6% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 48

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 2.29 = 0.28

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.71)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.6%

Win Probability (After): 41.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:40 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 4 at UNT 48) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack DeJarld for 7 yds to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST down - UNT 7, M-OH 3 0.67 41.7% 1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 41

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.27 - 2.60 = 0.67

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.40)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.7%

Win Probability (After): 43.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:00 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at UNT 41) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 23 yds to the NoTex 18 for a 1ST down - UNT 7, M-OH 3 1.44 42.9% 5.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 18

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.71 - 3.27 = 1.44

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.73)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.9%

Win Probability (After): 48.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:30 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at UNT 18) Kevin Davis run for 8 yds to the NoTex 10 - UNT 7, M-OH 3 0.52 48.2% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 10

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.23 - 4.71 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.71)

Score Difference (End): -4 (1.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.2%

Win Probability (After): 49.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:30 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 2 at UNT 10) Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the NoTex 8 for a 1ST down - UNT 7, M-OH 3 0.13 49.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 8

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.39 - 5.26 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): -4 (1.26)

Score Difference (End): -4 (1.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.6%

Win Probability (After): 49.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:59 ESPN team id 193 (1st & Goal at UNT 8) Kenny Tracy 8 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick) - UNT 7, M-OH 10 1.60 50.5% 6.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 99

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.40 = 1.60

Score Difference (Before): -4 (1.40)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.5%

Win Probability (After): 56.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 3 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:59 ESPN team id 249 (Kickoff at UNT 35) Graham Nicholson kickoff for 65 yds , Roderic Burns return for 19 yds to the MIAMIOH 46 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NoTex 9 - UNT 7, M-OH 10 -2.03 46.2% -3.9%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 91

Started Drive at: UNT 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.32 - 0.71 = -2.03

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-10.96)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.2%

Win Probability (After): 42.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:50 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 10) Austin Aune pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr. - UNT 7, M-OH 10 -0.76 44.3% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90

Started Drive at: UNT 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.86 - -0.10 = -0.76

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.10)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.3%

Win Probability (After): 42.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:40 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 10 at UNT 10) Ayo Adeyi run for no gain to the NoTex 10 - UNT 7, M-OH 10 -0.88 42.4% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90

Started Drive at: UNT 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.74 - -0.86 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.86)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.4%

Win Probability (After): 40.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:30 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 10 at UNT 10) Austin Aune pass incomplete to Khatib Lyles - UNT 7, M-OH 10 -1.11 40.2% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90

Started Drive at: UNT 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.85 - -1.74 = -1.11

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.74)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-5.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.2%

Win Probability (After): 37.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:06 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 10 at UNT 10) Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 70 yds, downed at the MiaOh 20 - UNT 7, M-OH 10 1.61 36.3% 5.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 80

Started Drive at: UNT 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.22 - -2.83 = 1.61

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-5.83)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.22)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 36.3%

Win Probability (After): 42.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 2:50 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at M-OH 20) Keyon Mozee run for 23 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST down - UNT 7, M-OH 10 1.34 56.5% 4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 57

Started Drive at: M-OH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 1.25 = 1.34

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.25)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.5%

Win Probability (After): 60.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:50 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at M-OH 43) Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jalen Walker - UNT 7, M-OH 10 -0.60 59.5% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: M-OH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 2.60 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.60)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.5%

Win Probability (After): 58.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:45 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 10 at M-OH 43) MIAMI OH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 38 - UNT 7, M-OH 10 -0.63 59.5% -3.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 62

Started Drive at: M-OH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - 1.99 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.99)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.5%

Win Probability (After): 56.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:35 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 15 at M-OH 38) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Andrew Homer for 7 yds to the MiaOh 45 - UNT 7, M-OH 10 -0.12 57.1% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 55

Started Drive at: M-OH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.23 - 1.35 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.35)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.1%

Win Probability (After): 57.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:00 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & 8 at M-OH 45) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 11 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST down - UNT 7, M-OH 10 2.17 57.0% 4.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 44

Started Drive at: M-OH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.40 - 1.24 = 2.17

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.24)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.0%

Win Probability (After): 61.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:15 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at UNT 44) Brett Gabbert sacked by Grayson Murphy for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 46 - UNT 7, M-OH 10 -1.12 60.5% -1.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 46

Started Drive at: M-OH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 3.41 = -1.12

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.41)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.5%

Win Probability (After): 59.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:01 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 12 at UNT 46) MIAMI OH Penalty, Illegal Participation (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 49 - UNT 7, M-OH 10 -0.47 58.9% -0.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 51

Started Drive at: M-OH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.84 - 2.31 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.31)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.9%

Win Probability (After): 58.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:30 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 17 at M-OH 49) Darez Snider run for no gain to the MiaOh 49 - UNT 7, M-OH 10 -1.02 58.0% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 51

Started Drive at: M-OH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 1.84 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.84)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.0%

Win Probability (After): 55.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & 17 at M-OH 49) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 48 - UNT 7, M-OH 10 -1.32 54.7% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 52

Started Drive at: M-OH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.54 - 0.79 = -1.32

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.79)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.7%

Win Probability (After): 53.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:53 ESPN team id 193 (4th & 18 at M-OH 48) Dom Dzioban punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 10 - UNT 7, M-OH 10 0.49 55.5% 4.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 90

Started Drive at: M-OH 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - -0.50 = 0.49

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.50)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.99)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.5%

Win Probability (After): 59.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 14:50 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 10) Isaiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 12 - UNT 7, M-OH 10 -0.58 40.8% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 88

Started Drive at: UNT 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.54 - 0.04 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.96)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.8%

Win Probability (After): 39.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:00 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 8 at UNT 12) Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 43 yds to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST down - UNT 7, M-OH 10 3.50 40.6% 6.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 45

Started Drive at: UNT 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.95 - -0.55 = 3.50

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.55)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.6%

Win Probability (After): 46.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:50 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at M-OH 45) Austin Aune run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 40 - UNT 7, M-OH 10 0.20 49.4% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 40

Started Drive at: UNT 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.16 - 2.97 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.03)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.4%

Win Probability (After): 50.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:30 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 5 at M-OH 40) Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 22 yds to the MiaOh 18 for a 1ST down - UNT 7, M-OH 10 1.51 51.2% 5.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 18

Started Drive at: UNT 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.69 - 3.18 = 1.51

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.18)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.2%

Win Probability (After): 57.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:15 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at M-OH 18) Austin Aune pass incomplete to Detraveon Brown - UNT 7, M-OH 10 -0.65 57.3% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: UNT 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.06 - 4.71 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.71)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.3%

Win Probability (After): 55.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:00 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 10 at M-OH 18) Ikaika Ragsdale run for no gain to the MiaOh 18 - UNT 7, M-OH 10 -0.79 54.1% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: UNT 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.28 - 4.07 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.07)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.1%

Win Probability (After): 52.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:20 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 10 at M-OH 18) Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 11 yds to the MiaOh 7 for a 1ST down - UNT 7, M-OH 10 2.21 51.1% 6.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 7

Started Drive at: UNT 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.49 - 3.28 = 2.21

Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.28)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.1%

Win Probability (After): 57.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:55 ESPN team id 249 (1st & Goal at M-OH 7) Austin Aune pass incomplete to Roderic Burns - UNT 7, M-OH 10 -0.63 56.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 7

Started Drive at: UNT 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.84 - 5.46 = -0.63

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.46)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.4%

Win Probability (After): 56.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:40 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & Goal at M-OH 7) Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 2 - UNT 7, M-OH 10 0.44 55.8% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 2

Started Drive at: UNT 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.26 - 4.82 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.82)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 7, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 88 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.8%

Win Probability (After): 55.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:32 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & Goal at M-OH 2) Austin Aune 2 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick) - UNT 14, M-OH 10 1.73 55.2% 9.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNT 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.27 = 1.73

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.27)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.2%

Win Probability (After): 64.9%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:32 ESPN team id 193 (Kickoff at M-OH 35) Ethan Mooney kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UNT 14, M-OH 10 0.00 39.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.76 - 0.76 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.24)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.4%

Win Probability (After): 39.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:20 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at M-OH 25) Keyon Mozee run for no gain to the MiaOh 25 - UNT 14, M-OH 10 -0.64 39.7% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.19 - 0.83 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.17)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.7%

Win Probability (After): 38.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:00 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 10 at M-OH 25) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 16 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 10 1.86 39.3% 4.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 59

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.10 - 0.23 = 1.86

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.77)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.3%

Win Probability (After): 43.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:30 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at M-OH 41) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 10 yds to the MIAMIOH 49 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Roughing Passer (KD Davis) to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 10 1.80 43.8% 4.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 32

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.89 - 2.09 = 1.80

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.90)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.8%

Win Probability (After): 48.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:47 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at UNT 32) Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jalen Walker - UNT 14, M-OH 10 -0.51 47.6% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 32

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.35 - 3.86 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.14)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.6%

Win Probability (After): 46.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:20 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 10 at UNT 32) Keyon Mozee run for 8 yds to the NoTex 24 - UNT 14, M-OH 10 0.29 46.0% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 24

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.60 - 3.31 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.69)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.0%

Win Probability (After): 47.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:00 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & 2 at UNT 24) Keyon Mozee run for 6 yds to the NoTex 18 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 10 1.05 48.0% 5.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 18

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.67 - 3.62 = 1.05

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.38)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.0%

Win Probability (After): 53.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:13 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at UNT 18) Brett Gabbert pass incomplete - UNT 14, M-OH 10 -0.54 52.2% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.06 - 4.60 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.60)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.2%

Win Probability (After): 50.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:54 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 10 at UNT 18) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jeremiah Batiste for 5 yds to the NoTex 13 - UNT 14, M-OH 10 -0.04 49.4% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 13

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.87 - 3.91 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.09)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.4%

Win Probability (After): 48.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:05 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & 5 at UNT 13) Kevin Davis run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 18 - UNT 14, M-OH 10 -2.03 48.2% -6.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 18

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.85 - 3.89 = -2.03

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.11)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 10

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.2%

Win Probability (After): 42.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:52 ESPN team id 193 (4th & 10 at UNT 18) Graham Nicholson 36 Yd Field Goal - UNT 14, M-OH 13 1.09 42.2% 6.9%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.91 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.09)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 13

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.2%

Win Probability (After): 49.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 10 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 6:52 ESPN team id 249 (Kickoff at UNT 35) Graham Nicholson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UNT 14, M-OH 13 0.00 60.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 1.07 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.07)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 13

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.0%

Win Probability (After): 60.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:45 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 25) Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28 - UNT 14, M-OH 13 -0.49 61.2% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 72

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 1.12 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.12)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.2%

Win Probability (After): 59.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:30 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 7 at UNT 28) Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 9 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 13 1.23 61.5% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 63

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.86 - 0.63 = 1.23

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.63)

Score Difference (End): 1 (2.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.5%

Win Probability (After): 62.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:04 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 37) Austin Aune pass intercepted John Saunders Jr. return for 31 yds to the NoTex 30 - UNT 14, M-OH 13 -5.49 62.8% -19.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 30

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.81 - 1.67 = -5.49

Score Difference (Before): 1 (2.67)

Score Difference (End): -1 (2.81)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.8%

Win Probability (After): 43.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:55 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at UNT 30) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Rhett Williams for 20 yds to the NoTex 10 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 13 1.04 54.8% 3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 10

Started Drive at: UNT 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.77 - 3.74 = 1.04

Score Difference (Before): -1 (2.74)

Score Difference (End): -1 (3.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 13

Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.8%

Win Probability (After): 57.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:20 ESPN team id 193 (1st & Goal at UNT 10) Keyon Mozee run for no gain to the NoTex 10 - UNT 14, M-OH 13 -0.53 56.4% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 10

Started Drive at: UNT 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.24 - 4.77 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.77)

Score Difference (End): -1 (3.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 13

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.4%

Win Probability (After): 57.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:35 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & Goal at UNT 10) Keyon Mozee run for 5 yds to the NoTex 5 - UNT 14, M-OH 13 -0.21 53.8% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 5

Started Drive at: UNT 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.05 - 4.26 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.26)

Score Difference (End): -1 (3.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 13

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.8%

Win Probability (After): 54.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 13 (13)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:08 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & Goal at UNT 5) Kevin Davis 5 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Graham Nicholson Kick) - UNT 14, M-OH 20 2.93 53.2% 18.1%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNT 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.07 = 2.93

Score Difference (Before): -1 (3.07)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.2%

Win Probability (After): 71.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 13 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:08 ESPN team id 249 (Kickoff at UNT 35) Graham Nicholson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UNT 14, M-OH 20 0.00 32.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.91 - 0.91 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.09)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.3%

Win Probability (After): 32.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 25) Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28 - UNT 14, M-OH 20 -0.37 32.5% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 72

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - 0.89 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.11)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.5%

Win Probability (After): 31.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:30 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 7 at UNT 28) Austin Aune run for 8 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 20 1.14 31.7% 1.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 64

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - 0.49 = 1.14

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.51)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.7%

Win Probability (After): 33.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 36) Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the NoTex 38 - UNT 14, M-OH 20 -0.33 33.2% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 62

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 1.53 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.47)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.2%

Win Probability (After): 32.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:40 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 8 at UNT 38) Austin Aune run for 5 yds to the NoTex 43 - UNT 14, M-OH 20 0.02 32.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 57

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.21 - 1.20 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.80)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.6%

Win Probability (After): 32.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:10 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 3 at UNT 43) Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 20 0.82 32.1% 2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 50

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 1.24 = 0.82

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.76)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.1%

Win Probability (After): 34.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:55 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at 50) Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 20 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 20 1.25 34.6% 4.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 30

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.23 - 1.98 = 1.25

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.02)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.6%

Win Probability (After): 39.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:50 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at M-OH 30) Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 15 yds to the MiaOh 15 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 20 1.38 39.4% 5.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 15

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.44 - 3.06 = 1.38

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.94)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-1.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.4%

Win Probability (After): 44.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:25 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at M-OH 15) Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 14 - UNT 14, M-OH 20 -0.34 45.1% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 14

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.90 - 4.24 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-1.76)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.1%

Win Probability (After): 43.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:25 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 9 at M-OH 14) Timeout MIAMI OH, clock 01:25 - UNT 14, M-OH 20 0.00 44.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.90 - 3.90 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.10)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.5%

Win Probability (After): 44.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:24 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 9 at M-OH 14) Austin Aune pass incomplete to Asher Alberding - UNT 14, M-OH 20 -0.64 44.6% -3.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 14

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.20 - 3.84 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.16)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.6%

Win Probability (After): 40.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:16 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 9 at M-OH 14) Austin Aune pass intercepted Jacquez Warren return for 13 yds to the MiaOh 13 - UNT 14, M-OH 20 -3.44 41.4% -14.0%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 87

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.20 - 3.24 = -3.44

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.76)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.20)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.4%

Win Probability (After): 27.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:10 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at M-OH 13) Kenny Tracy run for no gain to the MiaOh 13 - UNT 14, M-OH 20 -0.16 72.7% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 87

Started Drive at: M-OH 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 0.28 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.28)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.7%

Win Probability (After): 72.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:10 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 10 at M-OH 13) Timeout NORTH TEXAS, clock 01:10 - UNT 14, M-OH 20 0.00 72.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 87

Started Drive at: M-OH 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 0.13 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.13)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.1%

Win Probability (After): 72.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:00 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 10 at M-OH 13) Kenny Tracy run for 21 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 20 0.91 72.8% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 66

Started Drive at: M-OH 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.07 - 0.16 = 0.91

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.16)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.8%

Win Probability (After): 74.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:48 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at M-OH 34) Brett Gabbert run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 40 - UNT 14, M-OH 20 0.25 74.6% 1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 60

Started Drive at: M-OH 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.00 - 0.75 = 0.25

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.75)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.6%

Win Probability (After): 76.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:48 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 4 at M-OH 40) Timeout MIAMI OH, clock 00:48 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 20 0.00 76.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: M-OH 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.00 - 1.00 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.00)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.6%

Win Probability (After): 76.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:43 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 4 at M-OH 40) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 20 0.31 76.0% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 50

Started Drive at: M-OH 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 0.89 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.89)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.0%

Win Probability (After): 76.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:38 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at 50) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Rhett Williams for 4 yds to the NoTex 46 - UNT 14, M-OH 20 0.20 76.4% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 46

Started Drive at: M-OH 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.28 - 1.09 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.09)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.4%

Win Probability (After): 77.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:38 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 6 at UNT 46) Timeout NORTH TEXAS, clock 00:38 - UNT 14, M-OH 20 0.00 77.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: M-OH 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.28 - 1.28 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.28)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.0%

Win Probability (After): 77.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:33 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 6 at UNT 46) Brett Gabbert sacked by Dion Novil and Gabriel Murphy for a loss of 5 yards to the MIAMIOH 49 MIAMI OH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 44 - UNT 14, M-OH 20 -0.65 77.4% -1.8%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 56

Started Drive at: M-OH 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.56 - 1.27 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.21)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.4%

Win Probability (After): 75.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 16 at M-OH 44) Brett Gabbert sacked by KD Davis and Kevin Wood for a loss of 10 yards to the MiaOh 34 Brett Gabbert fumbled, forced by KD Davis, recovered by MiaOh Brett Gabbert , return for 0 yards - UNT 14, M-OH 20 -0.13 74.4% 1.7%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 66

Started Drive at: M-OH 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.30 - 0.13 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.13)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.4%

Win Probability (After): 76.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 193 (Kickoff at M-OH 35) Ethan Mooney kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UNT 14, M-OH 20 0.00 76.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.35 - 1.35 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.35)

Score Difference (End): 6 (7.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.1%

Win Probability (After): 76.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:55 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at M-OH 25) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 2 yds to the MiaOh 27 - UNT 14, M-OH 20 -0.61 76.3% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - 1.43 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.43)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.3%

Win Probability (After): 75.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:34 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 8 at M-OH 27) MIAMI OH Penalty, False Start (Kevin Davis) to the MiaOh 22 - UNT 14, M-OH 20 -0.62 75.7% -0.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 78

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.36 - 0.98 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.98)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.7%

Win Probability (After): 75.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:22 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 13 at M-OH 22) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 6 yds to the MiaOh 28 - UNT 14, M-OH 20 -0.44 75.0% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 72

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.01 - 0.42 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.42)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.0%

Win Probability (After): 74.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:50 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & 7 at M-OH 28) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 51 yds to the NoTex 21 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 20 4.67 74.8% 9.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 21

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.71 - 0.03 = 4.67

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.03)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.8%

Win Probability (After): 84.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:39 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at UNT 21) Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jalen Walker - UNT 14, M-OH 20 -0.58 84.2% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.15 - 4.73 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.73)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.2%

Win Probability (After): 83.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:25 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 10 at UNT 21) Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds to the NoTex 19 - UNT 14, M-OH 20 -0.72 83.4% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 19

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 4.16 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.16)

Score Difference (End): 6 (9.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.4%

Win Probability (After): 81.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:55 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & 8 at UNT 19) Brett Gabbert run for 8 yds to the NoTex 11 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 20 1.70 82.3% 2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 11

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.14 - 3.44 = 1.70

Score Difference (Before): 6 (9.44)

Score Difference (End): 6 (11.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.3%

Win Probability (After): 84.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:00 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at UNT 11) Kenny Tracy run for no gain to the NoTex 11 - UNT 14, M-OH 20 -0.65 84.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 11

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.57 - 5.22 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 6 (11.22)

Score Difference (End): 6 (10.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 20

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.3%

Win Probability (After): 84.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (20)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:31 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 10 at UNT 11) Nate Muersch 11 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Graham Nicholson Kick) - UNT 14, M-OH 27 2.37 84.1% 4.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 99

Started Drive at: M-OH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.63 = 2.37

Score Difference (Before): 6 (10.63)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.1%

Win Probability (After): 88.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 20 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:31 ESPN team id 249 (Kickoff at UNT 35) Graham Nicholson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - UNT 14, M-OH 27 0.00 12.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 0.01 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-12.99)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-12.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.9%

Win Probability (After): 12.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:10 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 25) Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.32 12.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 72

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.40 - -0.08 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-13.08)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.6%

Win Probability (After): 12.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:40 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 7 at UNT 28) Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the NoTex 30 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.48 11.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 70

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.84 - -0.37 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-13.37)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.0%

Win Probability (After): 10.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:22 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 5 at UNT 30) Austin Aune pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr. - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -1.48 11.3% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.10 - -0.62 = -1.48

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-13.62)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-15.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.3%

Win Probability (After): 9.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:08 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 5 at UNT 30) Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 66 yds, downed at the MiaOh 4 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 1.20 10.1% -1.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 96

Started Drive at: UNT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.99 - -2.19 = 1.20

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-15.19)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.99)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.1%

Win Probability (After): 8.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:55 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at M-OH 4) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 3 yds to the MiaOh 7 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.48 91.3% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 93

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.82 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 13 (13.82)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.3%

Win Probability (After): 89.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:15 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 7 at M-OH 7) Darez Snider run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 12 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 0.46 90.9% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 88

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.77 - 0.31 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): 13 (13.31)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.9%

Win Probability (After): 91.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:45 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & 2 at M-OH 12) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 1 yd to the MiaOh 13 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -1.28 91.1% -3.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 87

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.86 - 0.42 = -1.28

Score Difference (Before): 13 (13.42)

Score Difference (End): 13 (12.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.1%

Win Probability (After): 87.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:58 ESPN team id 193 (4th & 1 at M-OH 13) Dom Dzioban punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 43 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.48 88.8% -3.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 57

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.57 - -1.09 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 13 (11.91)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-11.43)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.8%

Win Probability (After): 85.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:54 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 43) Austin Aune pass incomplete to Isaiah Johnson - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.56 13.8% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: UNT 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 1.58 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-11.42)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-11.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.8%

Win Probability (After): 12.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:50 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 10 at UNT 43) Austin Aune run for 6 yds to the NoTex 49 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.07 12.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 51

Started Drive at: UNT 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 1.02 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-11.98)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-12.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.6%

Win Probability (After): 12.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:13 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 4 at UNT 49) Austin Aune pass incomplete - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -1.74 12.5% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 51

Started Drive at: UNT 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.72 - 1.03 = -1.74

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-11.97)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.5%

Win Probability (After): 11.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:13 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 4 at UNT 49) Timeout MIAMI OH, clock 07:13 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 0.00 10.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 51

Started Drive at: UNT 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.72 - -0.72 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-13.72)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.9%

Win Probability (After): 10.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 7:02 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 4 at UNT 49) Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 47 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 10 yds to the MiaOh 14 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.69 11.7% -1.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 86

Started Drive at: UNT 43

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.33 - -0.63 = -0.69

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-13.63)

Score Difference (End): 13 (14.33)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.7%

Win Probability (After): 10.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:50 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at M-OH 14) Kevin Davis run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 18 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.07 90.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 82

Started Drive at: M-OH 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.30 - 1.38 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): 13 (14.38)

Score Difference (End): 13 (14.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.1%

Win Probability (After): 89.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:00 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 6 at M-OH 18) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 16 yds to the MiaOh 34 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 27 1.23 90.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 66

Started Drive at: M-OH 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 1.36 = 1.23

Score Difference (Before): 13 (14.36)

Score Difference (End): 13 (15.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.7%

Win Probability (After): 90.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:30 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at M-OH 34) Kenny Tracy run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 37 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.39 91.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 63

Started Drive at: M-OH 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.19 - 2.58 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 13 (15.58)

Score Difference (End): 13 (15.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.4%

Win Probability (After): 91.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:00 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 7 at M-OH 37) Brett Gabbert run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 39 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.55 91.6% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 61

Started Drive at: M-OH 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.65 - 2.20 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): 13 (15.20)

Score Difference (End): 13 (14.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.6%

Win Probability (After): 91.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:05 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & 5 at M-OH 39) Brett Gabbert sacked by Dion Novil for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaOh 33 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -2.19 91.3% -2.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 67

Started Drive at: M-OH 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.51 - 1.68 = -2.19

Score Difference (Before): 13 (14.68)

Score Difference (End): 13 (12.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.3%

Win Probability (After): 89.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:24 ESPN team id 193 (4th & 11 at M-OH 33) Dom Dzioban punt for 52 yds, downed at the NoTex 15 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 0.90 89.1% 0.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 85

Started Drive at: M-OH 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - -0.48 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): 13 (12.52)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.43)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.1%

Win Probability (After): 89.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:15 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 15) Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the NoTex 20 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.10 9.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 80

Started Drive at: UNT 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.54 - -0.44 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-13.44)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.8%

Win Probability (After): 9.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:25 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 5 at UNT 20) Austin Aune sacked by Austin Ertl for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 18 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -1.30 9.9% -1.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 82

Started Drive at: UNT 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.82 - -0.52 = -1.30

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-13.52)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-14.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.9%

Win Probability (After): 8.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:40 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 7 at UNT 18) Austin Aune sacked by Lonnie Phelps for a loss of 7 yards to the NoTex 11 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -1.61 8.2% -1.2%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 89

Started Drive at: UNT 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.31 - -1.70 = -1.61

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-14.70)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-16.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.2%

Win Probability (After): 7.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:23 ESPN team id 249 (4th & 14 at UNT 11) Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 49 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 4 yds to the MiaOh 44 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 0.10 6.6% -1.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 56

Started Drive at: UNT 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.07 - -3.18 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-16.18)

Score Difference (End): 13 (16.07)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.6%

Win Probability (After): 5.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 1:00 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at M-OH 44) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 7 yds to the NoTex 49 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 0.28 94.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 49

Started Drive at: M-OH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.37 - 3.08 = 0.28

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.08)

Score Difference (End): 13 (16.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.4%

Win Probability (After): 94.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:43 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 3 at UNT 49) Kevin Davis run for 4 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 27 0.14 94.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 45

Started Drive at: M-OH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.51 - 3.36 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.36)

Score Difference (End): 13 (16.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.4%

Win Probability (After): 94.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at UNT 45) Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds to the NoTex 43 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.46 95.2% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 43

Started Drive at: M-OH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.01 - 3.47 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.47)

Score Difference (End): 13 (16.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.2%

Win Probability (After): 94.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:56 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 8 at UNT 43) Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Kevin Davis - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.97 94.4% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 43

Started Drive at: M-OH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - 2.99 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): 13 (15.99)

Score Difference (End): 13 (15.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.4%

Win Probability (After): 93.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:50 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & 8 at UNT 43) Brett Gabbert run for 4 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Gabriel Murphy) to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 27 2.56 93.7% 1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 24

Started Drive at: M-OH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.58 - 2.04 = 2.56

Score Difference (Before): 13 (15.02)

Score Difference (End): 13 (17.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.7%

Win Probability (After): 95.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:41 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at UNT 24) Gabbert, Brett pass incomplete to Walker, Jalen, PENALTY MIAMIOH holding (Vaughan, Sam) 10 yards to the NORTHTEXAS34, NO PLAY. - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -1.05 96.0% -0.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 34

Started Drive at: M-OH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.50 - 4.55 = -1.05

Score Difference (Before): 13 (17.55)

Score Difference (End): 13 (16.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.0%

Win Probability (After): 95.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:36 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 20 at UNT 34) Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack Sorenson - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.74 95.1% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34

Started Drive at: M-OH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 3.56 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.56)

Score Difference (End): 13 (15.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.1%

Win Probability (After): 94.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:20 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 20 at UNT 34) Kenny Tracy run for 4 yds to the NoTex 30 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.61 95.0% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 30

Started Drive at: M-OH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.22 - 2.83 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 13 (15.83)

Score Difference (End): 13 (15.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.0%

Win Probability (After): 94.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:50 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & 16 at UNT 30) Kenny Tracy run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 34 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -1.50 94.8% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 34

Started Drive at: M-OH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.69 - 2.19 = -1.50

Score Difference (Before): 13 (15.19)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.8%

Win Probability (After): 93.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:11 ESPN team id 193 (4th & 20 at UNT 34) Graham Nicholson 52 yd FG MISSED - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -1.87 94.1% -4.2%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 66

Started Drive at: M-OH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.17 - 0.70 = -1.87

Score Difference (Before): 13 (13.70)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-11.83)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.1%

Win Probability (After): 89.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 13:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 34) Austin Aune pass complete to Detraveon Brown for 12 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 27 0.75 9.4% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 54

Started Drive at: UNT 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.92 - 1.17 = 0.75

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-11.83)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-11.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.4%

Win Probability (After): 11.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:50 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at UNT 46) Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.07 10.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 50

Started Drive at: UNT 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - 1.88 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-11.12)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-11.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.7%

Win Probability (After): 10.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:20 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 6 at 50) Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 9 yds to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 27 1.05 9.9% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 41

Started Drive at: UNT 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.88 - 1.83 = 1.05

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-11.17)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-10.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.9%

Win Probability (After): 11.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at M-OH 41) Ikaika Ragsdale run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 42 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -1.24 11.4% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 42

Started Drive at: UNT 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.71 - 2.95 = -1.24

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-10.05)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-11.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.4%

Win Probability (After): 9.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:36 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 11 at M-OH 42) Austin Aune pass incomplete - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -1.15 9.8% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 42

Started Drive at: UNT 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 1.78 = -1.15

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-11.22)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-12.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.8%

Win Probability (After): 8.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:20 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & 11 at M-OH 42) Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 14 yds to the MiaOh 28 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 27 3.11 8.3% 3.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 28

Started Drive at: UNT 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.97 - 0.86 = 3.11

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-12.14)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-9.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.3%

Win Probability (After): 12.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:11 ESPN team id 249 (1st & 10 at M-OH 28) Austin Aune pass incomplete to Detraveon Brown - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.78 11.9% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 28

Started Drive at: UNT 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.23 - 4.02 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-8.98)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-9.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 38 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.9%

Win Probability (After): 11.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:04 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & 10 at M-OH 28) Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 18 yds to the MiaOh 10 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 27 1.62 11.9% 2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 10

Started Drive at: UNT 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.03 - 3.41 = 1.62

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-9.59)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-7.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 56 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.9%

Win Probability (After): 14.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 10:40 ESPN team id 249 (1st & Goal at M-OH 10) Isaiah Johnson run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 2 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 0.86 13.9% 2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 2

Started Drive at: UNT 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.91 - 5.05 = 0.86

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-7.95)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-7.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.9%

Win Probability (After): 16.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 10:25 ESPN team id 249 (2nd & Goal at M-OH 2) Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 1 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.04 16.6% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 1

Started Drive at: UNT 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.86 - 5.90 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-7.10)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-7.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.6%

Win Probability (After): 15.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 10:00 ESPN team id 249 (3rd & Goal at M-OH 1) Ikaika Ragsdale run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 4 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -3.03 15.3% -4.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 4

Started Drive at: UNT 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 5.85 = -3.03

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-7.15)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-10.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.3%

Win Probability (After): 10.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 10:00 ESPN team id 249 (4th & Goal at M-OH 4) Timeout NORTH TEXAS, clock 10:00 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 0.00 11.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: UNT 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.82 - 2.82 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-10.18)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-10.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.0%

Win Probability (After): 11.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:18 ESPN team id 249 (4th & Goal at M-OH 4) Austin Aune pass incomplete to Christian Lee - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -3.29 9.3% -5.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 96

Started Drive at: UNT 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.47 - 2.82 = -3.29

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-10.18)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.47)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.3%

Win Probability (After): 4.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:00 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at M-OH 4) Kenny Tracy run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 5 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.43 96.6% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 96 -> 95

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.57 - -0.13 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): 13 (12.87)

Score Difference (End): 13 (12.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.6%

Win Probability (After): 95.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:20 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 9 at M-OH 5) Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 7 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.84 96.3% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 95 -> 93

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.46 - -0.63 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): 13 (12.37)

Score Difference (End): 13 (11.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.3%

Win Probability (After): 95.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 7:40 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & 7 at M-OH 7) Brett Gabbert run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 15 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 27 2.11 96.2% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 85

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.70 - -1.41 = 2.11

Score Difference (Before): 13 (11.59)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.2%

Win Probability (After): 97.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 6:50 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at M-OH 15) Kenny Tracy run for 41 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 27 2.06 97.2% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 44

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.94 - 0.87 = 2.06

Score Difference (Before): 13 (13.87)

Score Difference (End): 13 (15.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 6:00 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at UNT 44) Kevin Davis run for 5 yds to the NoTex 39 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 0.37 98.7% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 39

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.24 - 2.87 = 0.37

Score Difference (Before): 13 (15.87)

Score Difference (End): 13 (16.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.7%

Win Probability (After): 98.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:20 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 5 at UNT 39) Kevin Davis run for 1 yd to the NoTex 38 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.49 99.0% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 38

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.50 - 3.00 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.00)

Score Difference (End): 13 (15.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.0%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:30 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & 4 at UNT 38) Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 8 yds to the NoTex 30 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 27 1.32 99.1% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 30

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.67 - 2.35 = 1.32

Score Difference (Before): 13 (15.35)

Score Difference (End): 13 (16.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:50 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at UNT 30) Kenny Tracy run for 7 yds to the NoTex 23 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 0.69 99.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 23

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 3.39 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.39)

Score Difference (End): 13 (17.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:50 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 3 at UNT 23) Timeout NORTH TEXAS, clock 03:50 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 0.00 99.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 4.08 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 13 (17.08)

Score Difference (End): 13 (17.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 3:45 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 3 at UNT 23) Kevin Davis run for 9 yds to the NoTex 14 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 27 0.70 99.5% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 14

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.66 - 3.96 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 13 (16.96)

Score Difference (End): 13 (17.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 3:02 ESPN team id 193 (1st & 10 at UNT 14) Kenny Tracy run for 5 yds to the NoTex 9 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 0.33 99.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 9

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.77 - 4.45 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): 13 (17.45)

Score Difference (End): 13 (17.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 87 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 3:02 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 5 at UNT 9) Timeout NORTH TEXAS, clock 03:02 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 0.00 99.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 9

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.77 - 4.77 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 13 (17.77)

Score Difference (End): 13 (17.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 87 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:50 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & 5 at UNT 9) Kevin Davis run for 3 yds to the NoTex 6 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 0.08 99.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 6

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.67 - 4.58 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): 13 (17.58)

Score Difference (End): 13 (17.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:00 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & 2 at UNT 6) Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds to the NoTex 4 for a 1ST down - UNT 14, M-OH 27 1.29 99.5% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 4

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.71 - 4.42 = 1.29

Score Difference (Before): 13 (17.42)

Score Difference (End): 13 (18.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 92 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 1:30 ESPN team id 193 (1st & Goal at UNT 4) Brett Gabbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 6 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -0.89 99.5% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 6

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.55 - 5.44 = -0.89

Score Difference (Before): 13 (18.44)

Score Difference (End): 13 (17.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:35 ESPN team id 193 (2nd & Goal at UNT 6) Brett Gabbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 8 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 -1.04 99.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 8

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.27 - 4.31 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): 13 (17.31)

Score Difference (End): 13 (16.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 88 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.6%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 193 (3rd & Goal at UNT 8) Brett Gabbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 10 - UNT 14, M-OH 27 0.30 99.2% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 10

Started Drive at: M-OH 4

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.52 - 2.22 = 0.30

Score Difference (Before): 13 (15.22)

Score Difference (End): 13 (15.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: UNT 14, M-OH 27

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 27 (27)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1