Win Probability
Game Excitement Index: 7.71 | Odds: BAY -3, O/U 55.0 | Download Chart
Expected Points
Team Stats [show/hide]
| Overall |
|
|
|---|---|---|
| EPA/Play | 0.06 58th %ile | 0.23 84th %ile |
| Success Rate | 50% 88th %ile | 55% 96th %ile |
| Yards/Play | 9.67 98th %ile | 6.58 70th %ile |
| EPA/Dropback | 0.36 82nd %ile | 0.45 88th %ile |
| EPA/Rush | 0.05 56th %ile | 0.00 48th %ile |
| Yards/Dropback | 11.81 98th %ile | 7.26 70th %ile |
| Explosive Play Rate | 13% 91st %ile | 11% 78th %ile |
| 3rd Down Success Rate | 31% 23rd %ile | 41% 49th %ile |
| Red Zone Success Rate | 50% 73rd %ile | 50% 73rd %ile |
| Def Run Stuff Rate | 19% 7th %ile | 12% 0th %ile |
| Havoc Rate | 8% 34th %ile | 7% 27th %ile |
| Expected Points | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 83 | 89 |
| Total EPA | 13.12 | 14.89 |
| Offensive EPA | 4.43 | 17.69 |
| Special Teams EPA | 7.28 | -0.49 |
| Penalty EPA | 0.29 | -2.31 |
| Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA | 1.12 | 0.00 |
| Production | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 70 | 76 |
| Yards | 677 | 500 |
| Yards/Play | 9.67 | 6.58 |
| EPA | 4.43 | 17.69 |
| EPA/Play | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| Passes | 37 (53%) | 39 (51%) |
| Yards | 437 | 283 |
| Yards/Play | 11.81 | 7.26 |
| EPA | 13.36 | 17.74 |
| EPA/Play | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| Rushes | 32 (46%) | 37 (49%) |
| Yards | 179 | 217 |
| Yards/Play | 5.59 | 5.86 |
| EPA | 1.53 | -0.05 |
| EPA/Play | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Rushing | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 70 | 76 |
| Rushes | 32 (46%) | 37 (49%) |
| Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) | 1 (3%) | 2 (5%) |
| Successful Power Runs (Rate) | 1 (100%) | 1 (50%) |
| Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) | 4 (12%) | 7 (19%) |
| Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) | 12 (38%) | 16 (43%) |
| Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) | 17 (53%) | 18 (49%) |
| OL Line Yards | 56.3 | 61.3 |
| Per Carry | 1.76 | 1.66 |
| Highlight Yards | 59 | 89.5 |
| Per Rush Opportunity | 3.47 | 4.97 |
| Explosiveness | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 83 | 89 |
| Scrimmage Plays | 70 | 76 |
| Explosive Plays | 9 (13%) | 8 (11%) |
| When Passing (EPA > 2.4) | 6 (16%) | 5 (13%) |
| When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) | 3 (9%) | 3 (8%) |
| EPA w/o Explosive Plays | -21.34 | -5.29 |
| EPA/Play | -0.35 | -0.08 |
| When Passing | -5.62 | 3.33 |
| EPA/Play | -0.15 | 0.09 |
| When Rushing | -5.25 | -8.62 |
| EPA/Play | -0.18 | -0.25 |
| Situational | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Successful Plays (EPA > 0) | 35 (50%) | 42 (55%) |
| When Passing | 19 (51%) | 23 (59%) |
| When Rushing | 16 (50%) | 19 (51%) |
| On Standard Downs | 25 (49%) | 29 (52%) |
| On Passing Downs | 10 (53%) | 13 (65%) |
| On Early Downs | 28 (50%) | 35 (57%) |
| On Late Downs | 7 (50%) | 7 (47%) |
| During "Middle 8" | 4 (40%) | 8 (53%) |
| Early Downs | 56 | 61 |
| First Downs Created | 16 (29%) | 16 (26%) |
| EPA | -3.22 | 17.12 |
| EPA/Play | -0.06 | 0.28 |
| Passes | 26 (46%) | 29 (48%) |
| Rushes | 29 (52%) | 32 (52%) |
| Successful Passes (Rate) | 15 (58%) | 18 (62%) |
| Successful Rushes (Rate) | 13 (45%) | 17 (53%) |
| "Middle 8" Plays | 10 | 15 |
| EPA | -5.38 | 3.10 |
| EPA/play | -0.54 | 0.21 |
| Passes | 6 (60%) | 8 (53%) |
| Rushes | 3 (30%) | 7 (47%) |
| Successful Passes (Rate) | 2 (33%) | 4 (50%) |
| Successful Rushes (Rate) | 2 (67%) | 4 (57%) |
| Drives | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total | 13 | 12 |
| Avg Starting Field Position | Own 25 | Own 27 |
| Plays/Drive | 7.91 | 8.28 |
| Yards/Drive | 56.41 | 53.76 |
| Available Yards % | 75% | 73% |
| Defensive | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 76 | 70 |
| Stop Rate | 29% | 19% |
| Havoc Plays Created | 6 (8%) | 5 (7%) |
| Passing | 1 (3%) | 2 (5%) |
| Rushing | 5 (14%) | 3 (9%) |
| TFLs Generated | 5 | 4 |
| Passing | 0 | 1 |
| Rushing | 5 | 3 |
| Sacks Generated | 0 (0%) | 1 (3%) |
| Passes Defensed | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles Forced | 0 | 0 |
| Turnovers | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 3 | 2 |
| Fumbles | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles Lost | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles Recovered | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 1 | 1 |
| Turnover Margin | -1 | 1 |
| Expected Turnovers | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Expected Turnover Margin | -0.5 | 0.5 |
| Turnover Luck (pts) | -2.5 | 2.5 |
| Special Teams | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 13 | 13 |
| Total EPA | 7.28 | -0.49 |
| Field Goal EPA | 2.87 | 0.44 |
| Punting EPA | -0.66 | -1.53 |
| Kickoff Return EPA | 5.07 | 0.6 |
Baylor [show/hide]
| Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | |||||||
| Blake Shapen | 14/22, 342 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 83.3 xQBR, 0.57 DETMER | 14.87 | 0.49 | 11.17 | 52% | 21.0% | |
| Kyron Drones | 7/13, 95 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 0 Scks, 64.9 xQBR, 0.48 DETMER | 7.31 | 0.22 | 2.81 | 54% | 5.0% | |
| Jordan Nabors | 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 18.6 xQBR, 0.00 DETMER | 0.00 | -0.63 | -0.63 | 0% | -1.0% | |
| Rush attempts | |||||||
| Monaray Baldwin | 1 carry, 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 20.00 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 100% | 2.0% | |
| Richard Reese | 13 carries, 57 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 4.38 | 0.08 | 0.98 | 46% | -15.0% | |
| Ben Sims | 1 carry, 1 yd, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 1.00 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 100% | 3.0% | |
| Kyron Drones | 2 carries, 24 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 12.00 | 0.37 | 0.73 | 100% | -6.0% | |
| Craig Williams | 3 carries, 25 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 8.33 | 0.22 | 0.67 | 33% | 3.0% | |
| Blake Shapen | 2 carries, 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 4.00 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 50% | -2.0% | |
| Qualan Jones | 10 carries, 44 yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) | 4.40 | -0.28 | -2.78 | 40% | -8.0% | |
| Pass targets | |||||||
| Gavin Holmes | 8 catches (8 targets), 230 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 28.75 | 1.04 | 8.34 | 75% | 22.0% | |
| Qualan Jones | 2 catches (2 targets), 37 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 18.50 | 2.29 | 4.57 | 100% | 12.0% | |
| Hal Presley | 2 catches (2 targets), 9 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 4.50 | 2.15 | 4.30 | 100% | 15.0% | |
| Drake Dabney | 4 catches (4 targets), 62 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 15.50 | 1.07 | 4.29 | 100% | 9.0% | |
| Craig Williams | 1 catch (1 target), 39 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 39.00 | 4.13 | 4.13 | 100% | 14.0% | |
| Monaray Baldwin | 2 catches (2 targets), 42 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 21.00 | 2.01 | 4.01 | 100% | 15.0% | |
| Ben Sims | 2 catches (2 targets), 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 9.00 | 0.58 | 1.15 | 100% | 5.0% | |
West Virginia [show/hide]
| Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | |||||||
| JT Daniels | 24/37, 283 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 0 Scks, 83.0 xQBR, 1.42 DETMER | 7.65 | 0.46 | 16.85 | 59% | 31.0% | |
| Rush attempts | |||||||
| Tony Mathis Jr. | 22 carries, 163 yds, 2 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) | 7.41 | 0.09 | 1.93 | 64% | 38.0% | |
| JT Daniels | 1 carry, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 3.00 | -0.22 | -0.22 | 0% | -1.0% | |
| Justin Johnson Jr. | 12 carries, 48 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 4.00 | -0.04 | -0.52 | 42% | -3.0% | |
| Garrett Greene | 2 carries, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 1.50 | -0.62 | -1.23 | 0% | -2.0% | |
| Pass targets | |||||||
| Kaden Prather | 8 catches (9 targets), 109 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 13.62 | 1.49 | 13.45 | 89% | 15.0% | |
| Sam James | 3 catches (4 targets), 52 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 17.33 | 1.72 | 6.86 | 100% | 9.0% | |
| Bryce Ford-Wheaton | 5 catches (5 targets), 51 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 10.20 | 0.95 | 4.75 | 100% | 11.0% | |
| Reese Smith | 1 catch (1 target), 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 30.00 | 3.16 | 3.16 | 100% | 5.0% | |
| Tony Mathis Jr. | 1 catch (1 target), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 9.00 | 1.53 | 1.53 | 100% | 2.0% | |
| Garrett Greene | 1 catch (1 target), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 7.00 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 100% | 0.0% | |
| Brian Polendey | 1 catch (1 target), 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.00 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 100% | 0.0% | |
| Jeremiah Aaron | 1 catch (1 target), 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.00 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 100% | 1.0% | |
| Justin Johnson Jr. | 1 catch (1 target), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 4.00 | -0.05 | -0.05 | 0% | 0.0% | |
| Preston Fox | 2 catches (2 targets), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 4.50 | -0.30 | -0.61 | 50% | -2.0% | |
Big Plays [show/hide]
As determined by absolute EPA.
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2:41 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 26) Jasir Cox 65 Yd Fumble Return (Casey Legg Kick) - BAY 17, WVU 17 | -10.46 | 88.1% | -27.5% |
|
Play Type: Fumble Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.46 = -10.46 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.46) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 17, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 116 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.1% Win Probability (After): 60.6% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 10 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 3:19 | |
(2nd & 8 at WVU 19) Kyron Drones pass intercepted - BAY 37, WVU 40 | -5.00 | 65.7% | -28.8% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 81 Started Drive at: BAY 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.15 - 3.85 = -5.00 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.85) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.15) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.7% Win Probability (After): 36.9% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 9:01 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 35) Qualan Jones run for 7 yds to the WVirg 28 Qualan Jones fumbled, recovered by WVirg Jasir Cox - BAY 37, WVU 33 | -4.92 | 85.1% | -13.1% |
|
Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 72 Started Drive at: BAY 45 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.19 - 3.73 = -4.92 Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.73) Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.81) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 37, WVU 33 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.1% Win Probability (After): 72.0% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (33) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:14 | |
(2nd & 10 at WVU 39) Craig Williams 39 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (John Mayers Kick) - BAY 24, WVU 17 | 4.13 | 67.9% | 14.2% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.87 = 4.13 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.87) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 56 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.9% Win Probability (After): 82.1% Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 9:47 | |
(4th & 1 at BAY 44) Tony Mathis Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 45 - BAY 37, WVU 33 | -4.12 | 28.9% | -7.9% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 55 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.80 - 1.32 = -4.12 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.68) Score Difference (End): 4 (6.80) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 37, WVU 33 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 30 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.9% Win Probability (After): 21.0% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (33) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 3:12 | |
(1st & 15 at WVU 14) JT Daniels pass intercepted WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on POLENDEY, Brian ( Yards) declined - BAY 37, WVU 40 | -4.12 | 72.5% | -37.0% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 26 Started Drive at: WVU 19 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.79 - 0.33 = -4.12 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.33) Score Difference (End): -3 (0.79) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 72.5% Win Probability (After): 35.5% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 7:06 | |
(2nd & 10 at BAY 34) Tony Mathis Jr. 34 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick) - BAY 37, WVU 40 | 3.85 | 34.5% | 25.1% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99 Started Drive at: WVU 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.15 = 3.85 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.85) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 72 yards Win Probability (Before): 34.5% Win Probability (After): 59.6% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:19 | |
(2nd & 10 at BAY 24) Kaden Prather 24 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Casey Legg Kick) - BAY 24, WVU 24 | 3.75 | 28.3% | 16.5% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 99 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.25 = 3.75 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.75) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.3% Win Probability (After): 44.8% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 5:21 | |
(4th & Goal at WVU 2) Hal Presley 2 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Mayers Kick) - BAY 31, WVU 24 | 3.39 | 67.9% | 14.4% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.61 = 3.39 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.61) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.9% Win Probability (After): 82.3% Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 10:52 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 35) Gavin Holmes 35 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (John Mayers Kick) - BAY 17, WVU 7 | 3.23 | 75.4% | 10.9% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.77 = 3.23 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.77) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 70 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.4% Win Probability (After): 86.2% Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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Most Important Plays [show/hide]
As determined by absolute WPA.
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 0:00 | |
(3rd & 7 at WVU 28) pass incomplete to Kaden Prather - BAY 24, WVU 17 | -0.05 | 57.9% | -37.7% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 99 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 0.03 = -0.05 Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.03) Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.02) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 57.9% Win Probability (After): 20.2% Away Score: 3 (24) Home Score: 7 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 3:12 | |
(1st & 15 at WVU 14) JT Daniels pass intercepted WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on POLENDEY, Brian ( Yards) declined - BAY 37, WVU 40 | -4.12 | 72.5% | -37.0% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 26 Started Drive at: WVU 19 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.79 - 0.33 = -4.12 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.33) Score Difference (End): -3 (0.79) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 72.5% Win Probability (After): 35.5% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 3:19 | |
(2nd & 8 at WVU 19) Kyron Drones pass intercepted - BAY 37, WVU 40 | -5.00 | 65.7% | -28.8% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 81 Started Drive at: BAY 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.15 - 3.85 = -5.00 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.85) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.15) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.7% Win Probability (After): 36.9% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 2:41 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 26) Jasir Cox 65 Yd Fumble Return (Casey Legg Kick) - BAY 17, WVU 17 | -10.46 | 88.1% | -27.5% |
|
Play Type: Fumble Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.46 = -10.46 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.46) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 17, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 116 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.1% Win Probability (After): 60.6% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 10 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 7:06 | |
(2nd & 10 at BAY 34) Tony Mathis Jr. 34 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick) - BAY 37, WVU 40 | 3.85 | 34.5% | 25.1% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99 Started Drive at: WVU 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.15 = 3.85 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.85) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 72 yards Win Probability (Before): 34.5% Win Probability (After): 59.6% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 1:40 | |
(4th & 10 at WVU 27) John Mayers 44 Yd Field Goal - BAY 40, WVU 40 | 1.52 | 31.9% | 22.8% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 65 Started Drive at: WVU 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.48 = 1.52 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.52) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.9% Win Probability (After): 54.7% Away Score: 37 (40) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 3:12 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 26) Richard Reese run for a loss of 4 yards to the WVirg 30 - BAY 37, WVU 40 | -1.41 | 64.3% | -20.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 30 Started Drive at: WVU 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.33 - 3.75 = -1.41 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.75) Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.67) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.3% Win Probability (After): 44.2% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 15:00 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 40) Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 56 yds to the WVirg 4 for a 1ST down - BAY 3, WVU 7 | -3.11 | 83.2% | -18.1% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 3.08 = -3.11 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.08) Score Difference (End): 7 (6.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 3, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 81 yards Win Probability (Before): 83.2% Win Probability (After): 65.1% Away Score: 24 (3) Home Score: 17 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 10:19 | |
(2nd & 10 at BAY 24) Kaden Prather 24 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Casey Legg Kick) - BAY 24, WVU 24 | 3.75 | 28.3% | 16.5% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 99 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.25 = 3.75 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.75) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.3% Win Probability (After): 44.8% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 5:21 | |
(4th & Goal at WVU 2) Hal Presley 2 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Mayers Kick) - BAY 31, WVU 24 | 3.39 | 67.9% | 14.4% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.61 = 3.39 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.61) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.9% Win Probability (After): 82.3% Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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Scoring Plays [show/hide]
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:30 | |
(1st & Goal at BAY 7) Tony Mathis Jr. 7 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick) - BAY 0, WVU 7 | 1.41 | 46.2% | 8.9% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99 Started Drive at: WVU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.59 = 1.41 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.59) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.2% Win Probability (After): 55.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 4:23 | |
(4th & 14 at WVU 23) John Mayers 40 Yd Field Goal - BAY 3, WVU 7 | 1.35 | 43.5% | 9.2% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 65 Started Drive at: BAY 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.65 = 1.35 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.35) Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 3, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 71 yards Win Probability (Before): 43.5% Win Probability (After): 52.8% Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 13:34 | |
(2nd & Goal at WVU 1) Ben Sims 1 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick) - BAY 10, WVU 7 | 0.82 | 65.4% | 2.9% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.18 = 0.82 Score Difference (Before): -4 (2.18) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 10, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 85 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.4% Win Probability (After): 68.2% Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 10:52 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 35) Gavin Holmes 35 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (John Mayers Kick) - BAY 17, WVU 7 | 3.23 | 75.4% | 10.9% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.77 = 3.23 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.77) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 70 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.4% Win Probability (After): 86.2% Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 4:22 | |
(4th & Goal at BAY 6) Casey Legg 23 Yd Field Goal - BAY 17, WVU 10 | 0.37 | 15.7% | 4.5% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 65 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.63 = 0.37 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.37) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 10 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.7% Win Probability (After): 20.1% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 2:41 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 26) Jasir Cox 65 Yd Fumble Return (Casey Legg Kick) - BAY 17, WVU 17 | -10.46 | 88.1% | -27.5% |
|
Play Type: Fumble Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.46 = -10.46 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.46) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 17, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 116 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.1% Win Probability (After): 60.6% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 10 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:14 | |
(2nd & 10 at WVU 39) Craig Williams 39 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (John Mayers Kick) - BAY 24, WVU 17 | 4.13 | 67.9% | 14.2% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.87 = 4.13 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.87) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 56 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.9% Win Probability (After): 82.1% Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q3 10:19 | |
(2nd & 10 at BAY 24) Kaden Prather 24 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Casey Legg Kick) - BAY 24, WVU 24 | 3.75 | 28.3% | 16.5% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 99 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.25 = 3.75 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.75) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.3% Win Probability (After): 44.8% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 5:21 | |
(4th & Goal at WVU 2) Hal Presley 2 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Mayers Kick) - BAY 31, WVU 24 | 3.39 | 67.9% | 14.4% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.61 = 3.39 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.61) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.9% Win Probability (After): 82.3% Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 1:42 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 19) Justin Johnson Jr. 19 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick) - BAY 31, WVU 31 | 2.57 | 31.4% | 11.3% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 99 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.43 = 2.57 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.57) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 31 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.4% Win Probability (After): 42.7% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (31) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:39 | |
(2nd & 2 at WVU 4) Qualan Jones 4 Yd Run (John Mayers PAT blocked) - BAY 37, WVU 31 | 1.09 | 74.4% | 7.0% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.92 - 5.83 = 1.09 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.83) Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 31 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 74.4% Win Probability (After): 81.4% Away Score: 31 (37) Home Score: 31 (31) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 7:06 | |
(2nd & 10 at BAY 34) Tony Mathis Jr. 34 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick) - BAY 37, WVU 40 | 3.85 | 34.5% | 25.1% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99 Started Drive at: WVU 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.15 = 3.85 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.85) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 72 yards Win Probability (Before): 34.5% Win Probability (After): 59.6% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 1:40 | |
(4th & 10 at WVU 27) John Mayers 44 Yd Field Goal - BAY 40, WVU 40 | 1.52 | 31.9% | 22.8% |
|
Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 65 Started Drive at: WVU 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.48 = 1.52 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.52) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.9% Win Probability (After): 54.7% Away Score: 37 (40) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 0:33 | |
(4th & Goal at BAY 5) Casey Legg 22 Yd Field Goal - BAY 40, WVU 43 | 0.06 | 89.0% | 3.7% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 65 Started Drive at: WVU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.94 = 0.06 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.94) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 43 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards Win Probability (Before): 89.0% Win Probability (After): 92.7% Away Score: 40 (40) Home Score: 40 (43) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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All Plays [show/hide]
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at BAY 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 0, WVU 0 | 0.00 | 55.2% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: BAY 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.2% Win Probability (After): 55.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at BAY 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 0, WVU 0 | 0.00 | 59.8% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: BAY 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.8% Win Probability (After): 59.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 15:00 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 25) Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 27 - BAY 0, WVU 0 | -0.54 | 59.8% | -1.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73 Started Drive at: BAY 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.32 - 0.86 = -0.54 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.32) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.8% Win Probability (After): 58.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 15:00 | |
(2nd & 8 at BAY 27) Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the Bayl 30 - BAY 0, WVU 0 | -0.31 | 58.2% | -2.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 70 Started Drive at: BAY 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 0.32 = -0.31 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.32) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.01) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.2% Win Probability (After): 56.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 15:00 | |
(3rd & 5 at BAY 30) Blake Shapen pass incomplete - BAY 0, WVU 0 | -1.79 | 56.2% | -2.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70 Started Drive at: BAY 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.78 - 0.01 = -1.79 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.01) Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.78) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.2% Win Probability (After): 53.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:48 | |
(4th & 5 at BAY 30) Issac Power punt for 39 yds , Preston Fox returns for 4 yds to the WVirg 35 - BAY 0, WVU 0 | -0.35 | 56.8% | 2.4% |
|
Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 65 Started Drive at: BAY 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.81 - -1.46 = -0.35 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.46) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.81) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 0, WVU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.8% Win Probability (After): 59.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 13:48 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 35) Tony Mathis Jr. run for 12 yds to the WVirg 47 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, WVU 0 | 0.66 | 42.9% | 2.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 53 Started Drive at: WVU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.65 - 1.99 = 0.66 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.99) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.65) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 42.9% Win Probability (After): 44.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:48 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 47) JT Daniels pass complete to Brian Polendey for 6 yds to the Bayl 47 - BAY 0, WVU 0 | 0.32 | 44.9% | 0.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 47 Started Drive at: WVU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.97 - 2.65 = 0.32 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.65) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards Win Probability (Before): 44.9% Win Probability (After): 45.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:48 | |
(2nd & 4 at BAY 47) JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 6 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, WVU 0 | 0.56 | 45.3% | 1.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 41 Started Drive at: WVU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.53 - 2.97 = 0.56 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.97) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.53) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 24 yards Win Probability (Before): 45.3% Win Probability (After): 46.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:48 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 41) Tony Mathis Jr. run for 1 yd to the Bayl 40 - BAY 0, WVU 0 | -0.55 | 46.5% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 40 Started Drive at: WVU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.98 - 3.53 = -0.55 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.53) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.98) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.5% Win Probability (After): 45.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:48 | |
(2nd & 9 at BAY 40) JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 7 yds to the Bayl 33 - BAY 0, WVU 0 | 0.50 | 45.8% | -0.3% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 33 Started Drive at: WVU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.49 - 2.98 = 0.50 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.98) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.49) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 45.8% Win Probability (After): 45.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:48 | |
(3rd & 2 at BAY 33) Tony Mathis Jr. run for 7 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, WVU 0 | 0.87 | 45.5% | 1.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 26 Started Drive at: WVU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.36 - 3.49 = 0.87 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.49) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 45.5% Win Probability (After): 47.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:48 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 26) JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 19 yds to the Bayl 7 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, WVU 0 | 0.94 | 47.2% | 1.0% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 7 Started Drive at: WVU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.30 - 4.36 = 0.94 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.36) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.30) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 58 yards Win Probability (Before): 47.2% Win Probability (After): 48.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 10:30 | |
(1st & Goal at BAY 7) Tony Mathis Jr. 7 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick) - BAY 0, WVU 7 | 1.41 | 46.2% | 8.9% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99 Started Drive at: WVU 35 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.59 = 1.41 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.59) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.2% Win Probability (After): 55.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 10:23 | |
(Kickoff at BAY 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 64 yds , Craig Williams return for 29 yds to the WESTVIR 36 BAYLOR Penalty, Illegal Block ( Yards) to the Bayl 7 - BAY 0, WVU 7 | -1.12 | 44.1% | -0.4% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 93 Started Drive at: BAY 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.13 - -0.01 = -1.12 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-15.05) Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.13) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 44.1% Win Probability (After): 43.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 10:23 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 7) Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the Bayl 12 - BAY 0, WVU 7 | 0.16 | 43.7% | -0.2% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 88 Started Drive at: BAY 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.92 - -1.08 = 0.16 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.08) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 43.7% Win Probability (After): 43.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 10:23 | |
(2nd & 5 at BAY 12) Qualan Jones run for 2 yds to the Bayl 14 - BAY 0, WVU 7 | -0.37 | 43.5% | -1.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 86 Started Drive at: BAY 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.29 - -0.92 = -0.37 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.92) Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.29) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 43.5% Win Probability (After): 41.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 10:23 | |
(3rd & 3 at BAY 14) Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 23 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, WVU 7 | 2.36 | 41.9% | 4.8% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 63 Started Drive at: BAY 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - -1.29 = 2.36 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.29) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 30 yards Win Probability (Before): 41.9% Win Probability (After): 46.6% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 8:31 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 37) Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 17 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, WVU 7 | 1.34 | 45.6% | 5.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 46 Started Drive at: BAY 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 1.01 = 1.34 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.99) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.65) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 47 yards Win Probability (Before): 45.6% Win Probability (After): 50.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 8:31 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 46) Timeout WEST VIRGINIA, clock 08:31 - BAY 0, WVU 7 | 0.00 | 50.0% | 0.0% |
|
Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46 Started Drive at: BAY 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.35 - 2.35 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.65) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.65) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 47 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.0% Win Probability (After): 50.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 8:31 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 46) Jordan Nabors pass incomplete - BAY 0, WVU 7 | -0.63 | 49.6% | -0.6% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46 Started Drive at: BAY 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.68 - 2.30 = -0.63 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.70) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.32) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 47 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.6% Win Probability (After): 49.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 8:31 | |
(2nd & 10 at WVU 46) Qualan Jones run for 4 yds to the WVirg 42 - BAY 0, WVU 7 | -0.63 | 49.0% | -3.6% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 42 Started Drive at: BAY 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.05 - 1.68 = -0.63 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.32) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.95) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.0% Win Probability (After): 45.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 8:31 | |
(3rd & 6 at WVU 42) Qualan Jones run for 10 yds to the WVirg 32 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, WVU 7 | 2.39 | 45.4% | 6.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 32 Started Drive at: BAY 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 1.05 = 2.39 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.95) Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.56) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards Win Probability (Before): 45.4% Win Probability (After): 51.8% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 8:31 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 32) Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the WVirg 30 - BAY 0, WVU 7 | -0.59 | 51.8% | -1.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 30 Started Drive at: BAY 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.85 - 3.44 = -0.59 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.56) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.15) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 63 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.8% Win Probability (After): 50.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 8:31 | |
(2nd & 8 at WVU 30) Blake Shapen pass incomplete - BAY 0, WVU 7 | -0.90 | 50.7% | -2.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30 Started Drive at: BAY 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 2.85 = -0.90 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.15) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.05) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 63 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.7% Win Probability (After): 48.4% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 8:31 | |
(3rd & 8 at WVU 30) Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 12 yds to the WVirg 18 for a 1ST down - BAY 0, WVU 7 | 2.55 | 48.4% | 6.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 18 Started Drive at: BAY 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.51 - 1.95 = 2.55 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.05) Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.49) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 48.4% Win Probability (After): 54.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 8:31 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 18) Blake Shapen pass incomplete - BAY 0, WVU 7 | -0.67 | 54.9% | -1.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18 Started Drive at: BAY 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.84 - 4.51 = -0.67 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.49) Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.9% Win Probability (After): 53.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 8:31 | |
(2nd & 10 at WVU 18) Richard Reese run for no gain to the WVirg 18 - BAY 0, WVU 7 | -0.79 | 53.1% | -1.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 18 Started Drive at: BAY 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.06 - 3.84 = -0.79 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.16) Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.94) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.1% Win Probability (After): 51.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 8:31 | |
(3rd & 10 at WVU 18) Blake Shapen sacked by Lee Kpogba for a loss of 4 yards to the WVirg 22 - BAY 0, WVU 7 | -1.17 | 51.2% | -4.0% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 22 Started Drive at: BAY 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.89 - 3.06 = -1.17 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.94) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.11) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 0, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 71 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.2% Win Probability (After): 47.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 4:23 | |
(4th & 14 at WVU 23) John Mayers 40 Yd Field Goal - BAY 3, WVU 7 | 1.35 | 43.5% | 9.2% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 65 Started Drive at: BAY 7 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.65 = 1.35 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.35) Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 3, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 71 yards Win Probability (Before): 43.5% Win Probability (After): 52.8% Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 4:23 | |
(Kickoff at WVU 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 3, WVU 7 | 0.00 | 53.9% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.54 - 1.54 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.54) Score Difference (End): 4 (5.54) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 3, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.9% Win Probability (After): 53.9% Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 4:23 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 25) JT Daniels pass complete to Garrett Greene for 7 yds to the WVirg 32 - BAY 3, WVU 7 | 0.52 | 53.9% | 0.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 68 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 1.54 = 0.52 Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.54) Score Difference (End): 4 (6.07) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 3, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.9% Win Probability (After): 54.1% Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 4:23 | |
(2nd & 3 at WVU 32) Garrett Greene run for 1 yd to the WVirg 33 - BAY 3, WVU 7 | -0.80 | 54.1% | -1.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 67 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.27 - 2.07 = -0.80 Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.07) Score Difference (End): 4 (5.27) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 3, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.1% Win Probability (After): 52.9% Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 4:23 | |
(3rd & 2 at WVU 33) JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 11 yds to the WVirg 44 for a 1ST down - BAY 3, WVU 7 | 1.52 | 52.9% | 4.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 56 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.79 - 1.27 = 1.52 Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.27) Score Difference (End): 4 (6.79) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 3, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 52.9% Win Probability (After): 57.6% Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 4:23 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 44) Tony Mathis Jr. run for 1 yd to the WVirg 45 - BAY 3, WVU 7 | -0.59 | 57.6% | -1.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 55 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.21 - 2.79 = -0.59 Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.79) Score Difference (End): 4 (6.21) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 3, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 57.6% Win Probability (After): 56.1% Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 4:23 | |
(2nd & 9 at WVU 45) Tony Mathis Jr. run for 6 yds to the Bayl 49 - BAY 3, WVU 7 | 0.07 | 56.1% | 0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 49 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.28 - 2.21 = 0.07 Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.21) Score Difference (End): 4 (6.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 3, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.1% Win Probability (After): 56.3% Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 4:23 | |
(3rd & 3 at BAY 49) Tony Mathis Jr. run for no gain to the Bayl 49 - BAY 3, WVU 7 | -2.05 | 56.3% | -3.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.23 - 2.28 = -2.05 Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.28) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.23) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 3, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.3% Win Probability (After): 52.6% Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 1:06 | |
(4th & 3 at BAY 49) Oliver Straw punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 15 - BAY 3, WVU 7 | -0.58 | 53.0% | -5.1% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 85 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.33 - 0.24 = -0.58 Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.24) Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.67) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 3, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.0% Win Probability (After): 47.8% Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 1:06 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 15) Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 7 yds to the Bayl 22 - BAY 3, WVU 7 | 0.22 | 49.2% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 78 Started Drive at: BAY 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 0.44 = 0.22 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.56) Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.34) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 3, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 49.2% Win Probability (After): 48.7% Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 0:00 | |
(2nd & 3 at BAY 22) Craig Williams run for 18 yds to the Bayl 40 for a 1ST down - BAY 3, WVU 7 | 1.30 | 48.7% | 4.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 60 Started Drive at: BAY 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.96 - 0.66 = 1.30 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.34) Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.04) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 3, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 48.7% Win Probability (After): 52.9% Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:00 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 25) pass incomplete to Sam James - BAY 3, WVU 7 | 0.94 | 59.0% | -8.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.97 - 0.03 = 0.94 Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.03) Score Difference (End): 4 (4.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 3, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.0% Win Probability (After): 50.7% Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:00 | |
(3rd & 7 at WVU 28) pass incomplete to Kaden Prather - BAY 24, WVU 17 | -0.05 | 57.9% | -37.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 99 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 0.03 = -0.05 Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.03) Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.02) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 57.9% Win Probability (After): 20.2% Away Score: 3 (24) Home Score: 7 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:00 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 27) Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 20 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST down - BAY 24, WVU 17 | -0.06 | 82.7% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 0.03 = -0.06 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.03) Score Difference (End): 7 (6.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.7% Win Probability (After): 82.2% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 15:00 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 40) Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 56 yds to the WVirg 4 for a 1ST down - BAY 3, WVU 7 | -3.11 | 83.2% | -18.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.03 - 3.08 = -3.11 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.08) Score Difference (End): 7 (6.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 3, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 81 yards Win Probability (Before): 83.2% Win Probability (After): 65.1% Away Score: 24 (3) Home Score: 17 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 15:00 | |
(1st & Goal at WVU 4) Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the WVirg 1 - BAY 3, WVU 7 | 0.20 | 64.0% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 1 Started Drive at: BAY 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.15 - 5.95 = 0.20 Score Difference (Before): -4 (1.95) Score Difference (End): -4 (2.15) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 3, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 84 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.0% Win Probability (After): 63.7% Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 13:34 | |
(2nd & Goal at WVU 1) Ben Sims 1 Yd Run (John Mayers Kick) - BAY 10, WVU 7 | 0.82 | 65.4% | 2.9% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.18 = 0.82 Score Difference (Before): -4 (2.18) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 10, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 85 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.4% Win Probability (After): 68.2% Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 13:34 | |
(Kickoff at WVU 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 10, WVU 7 | 0.00 | 35.8% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.79 - 0.79 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.21) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.21) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 10, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 35.8% Win Probability (After): 35.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 13:34 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 25) Justin Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the WVirg 30 - BAY 10, WVU 7 | 0.16 | 35.8% | 0.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.96 - 0.79 = 0.16 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.21) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.04) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 10, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 35.8% Win Probability (After): 36.1% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 13:34 | |
(2nd & 5 at WVU 30) Justin Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 29 - BAY 10, WVU 7 | -1.20 | 36.1% | -3.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 71 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.24 - 0.96 = -1.20 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.04) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.24) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 10, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 36.1% Win Probability (After): 32.4% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 13:34 | |
(3rd & 6 at WVU 29) JT Daniels pass incomplete - BAY 10, WVU 7 | -1.47 | 32.4% | -3.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.70 - -0.24 = -1.47 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.24) Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.70) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 10, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.4% Win Probability (After): 28.6% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 12:15 | |
(4th & 6 at WVU 29) Oliver Straw punt for 42 yds , Gavin Holmes returns for 1 yd to the Bayl 30 - BAY 10, WVU 7 | -0.35 | 27.0% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 70 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.95 - -1.60 = -0.35 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.60) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.95) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 10, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.0% Win Probability (After): 27.0% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 12:15 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 30) Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 14 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST down - BAY 10, WVU 7 | 0.75 | 71.9% | 1.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 56 Started Drive at: BAY 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - 2.00 = 0.75 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.00) Score Difference (End): 3 (5.74) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 10, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 71.9% Win Probability (After): 73.3% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 12:15 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 44) Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 21 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST down - BAY 10, WVU 7 | 1.03 | 73.3% | 2.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 35 Started Drive at: BAY 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.78 - 2.74 = 1.03 Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.74) Score Difference (End): 3 (6.78) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 10, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 35 yards Win Probability (Before): 73.3% Win Probability (After): 75.8% Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 10:52 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 35) Gavin Holmes 35 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (John Mayers Kick) - BAY 17, WVU 7 | 3.23 | 75.4% | 10.9% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 30 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.77 = 3.23 Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.77) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 70 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.4% Win Probability (After): 86.2% Away Score: 10 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 10:52 | |
(Kickoff at WVU 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 17, WVU 7 | 0.00 | 14.4% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.47 - 0.47 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.53) Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.53) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.4% Win Probability (After): 14.4% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:52 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 25) JT Daniels pass incomplete - BAY 17, WVU 7 | -0.54 | 14.4% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.47 = -0.54 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.53) Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.07) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.4% Win Probability (After): 13.7% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:52 | |
(2nd & 10 at WVU 25) JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 10 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST down - BAY 17, WVU 7 | 1.58 | 13.7% | 2.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.51 - -0.07 = 1.58 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.07) Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.49) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards Win Probability (Before): 13.7% Win Probability (After): 15.7% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:52 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 35) Tony Mathis Jr. run for 2 yds to the WVirg 37 - BAY 17, WVU 7 | -0.48 | 15.7% | 0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 63 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 1.51 = -0.48 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.49) Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.7% Win Probability (After): 15.8% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:52 | |
(2nd & 8 at WVU 37) JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - BAY 17, WVU 7 | 1.41 | 15.8% | 2.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 50 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.44 - 1.03 = 1.41 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.97) Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.56) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.8% Win Probability (After): 17.8% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:52 | |
(1st & 10 at 50) JT Daniels pass incomplete - BAY 17, WVU 7 | -0.51 | 17.8% | -0.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 2.44 = -0.51 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.56) Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.07) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 17.8% Win Probability (After): 17.0% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:52 | |
(2nd & 10 at 50) Justin Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the 50 yard line - BAY 17, WVU 7 | -0.80 | 17.0% | -1.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 1.93 = -0.80 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.07) Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.87) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 25 yards Win Probability (Before): 17.0% Win Probability (After): 15.6% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:52 | |
(3rd & 10 at 50) JT Daniels pass complete to Reese Smith for 30 yds to the Bayl 20 for a 1ST down - BAY 17, WVU 7 | 3.16 | 15.6% | 4.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 20 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 1.13 = 3.16 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.87) Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.71) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 55 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.6% Win Probability (After): 20.2% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:52 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 20) Justin Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Bayl 14 - BAY 17, WVU 7 | 0.30 | 20.2% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 14 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.59 - 4.29 = 0.30 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.71) Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.41) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 61 yards Win Probability (Before): 20.2% Win Probability (After): 20.0% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:52 | |
(2nd & 4 at BAY 14) Justin Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST down - BAY 17, WVU 7 | 0.35 | 20.0% | 0.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 8 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.95 - 4.59 = 0.35 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.41) Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.05) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 67 yards Win Probability (Before): 20.0% Win Probability (After): 20.8% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:52 | |
(1st & Goal at BAY 8) Justin Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Bayl 7 - BAY 17, WVU 7 | -0.48 | 20.9% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 7 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.63 - 5.11 = -0.48 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-4.89) Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.37) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 68 yards Win Probability (Before): 20.9% Win Probability (After): 20.2% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:52 | |
(2nd & Goal at BAY 7) Justin Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the Bayl 1 - BAY 17, WVU 7 | 1.01 | 20.2% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 1 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.64 - 4.63 = 1.01 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.37) Score Difference (End): -10 (-4.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 20.2% Win Probability (After): 20.1% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 4:29 | |
(3rd & Goal at BAY 1) WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 6 - BAY 17, WVU 7 | -1.80 | 19.7% | -0.4% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 6 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 5.59 = -1.80 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-4.41) Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.21) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.7% Win Probability (After): 19.3% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 4:29 | |
(3rd & Goal at BAY 6) Timeout WEST VIRGINIA, clock 04:29 - BAY 17, WVU 7 | 0.00 | 18.6% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 3.79 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.21) Score Difference (End): -10 (-6.21) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.6% Win Probability (After): 18.6% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 4:29 | |
(3rd & Goal at BAY 6) JT Daniels pass incomplete - BAY 17, WVU 7 | -1.24 | 18.1% | -2.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.58 - 3.82 = -1.24 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-6.18) Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.42) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 7 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.1% Win Probability (After): 15.7% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (7) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 4:22 | |
(4th & Goal at BAY 6) Casey Legg 23 Yd Field Goal - BAY 17, WVU 10 | 0.37 | 15.7% | 4.5% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 65 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.63 = 0.37 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.37) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 10 Drive Summary: 13 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.7% Win Probability (After): 20.1% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 7 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 4:16 | |
(Kickoff at BAY 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 55 yds , Craig Williams return for 13 yds to the Bayl 23 - BAY 17, WVU 10 | 0.74 | 82.9% | 0.9% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 77 Started Drive at: BAY 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.79 - 1.05 = 0.74 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.05) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.79) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 10 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.9% Win Probability (After): 83.8% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 4:16 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 23) Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the Bayl 28 - BAY 17, WVU 10 | -0.07 | 82.8% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 72 Started Drive at: BAY 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.92 - 0.99 = -0.07 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.99) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 10 Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.8% Win Probability (After): 82.7% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 4:16 | |
(2nd & 5 at BAY 28) Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 46 yds to the WVirg 26 for a 1ST down - BAY 17, WVU 10 | 3.01 | 82.7% | 5.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 26 Started Drive at: BAY 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.93 - 0.92 = 3.01 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.92) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.93) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 10 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.7% Win Probability (After): 88.0% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 10 (10) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 2:41 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 26) Jasir Cox 65 Yd Fumble Return (Casey Legg Kick) - BAY 17, WVU 17 | -10.46 | 88.1% | -27.5% |
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Play Type: Fumble Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 3.46 = -10.46 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.46) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 17, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 116 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.1% Win Probability (After): 60.6% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 10 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 2:41 | |
(Kickoff at BAY 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 17, WVU 17 | 0.00 | 62.6% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: BAY 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.37 - 1.37 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.37) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.37) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 62.6% Win Probability (After): 62.6% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 2:41 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 25) Craig Williams run for 5 yds to the Bayl 30 - BAY 17, WVU 17 | -0.09 | 62.6% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70 Started Drive at: BAY 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.28 - 1.37 = -0.09 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.37) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 62.6% Win Probability (After): 62.4% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 2:41 | |
(2nd & 5 at BAY 30) Richard Reese run for 12 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST down - BAY 17, WVU 17 | 1.04 | 62.4% | 2.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 58 Started Drive at: BAY 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.32 - 1.28 = 1.04 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.28) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.32) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 62.4% Win Probability (After): 64.4% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 2:41 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 42) WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Roughing the Passer on JEFFERSON, Jordan enforced (Jordan Jefferson) to the WVirg 39 for a 1ST down - BAY 17, WVU 17 | 0.98 | 64.4% | 3.2% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 39 Started Drive at: BAY 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.30 - 2.32 = 0.98 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.32) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.30) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.4% Win Probability (After): 67.6% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 2:41 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 39) Blake Shapen pass incomplete - BAY 17, WVU 17 | -0.38 | 67.6% | -0.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 39 Started Drive at: BAY 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 3.30 = -0.38 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.30) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 17, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.6% Win Probability (After): 66.7% Away Score: 17 (17) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 1:14 | |
(2nd & 10 at WVU 39) Craig Williams 39 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (John Mayers Kick) - BAY 24, WVU 17 | 4.13 | 67.9% | 14.2% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 2.87 = 4.13 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.87) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 56 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.9% Win Probability (After): 82.1% Away Score: 17 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 1:14 | |
(Kickoff at WVU 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 24, WVU 17 | 0.00 | 20.7% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 0.64 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.36) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 20.7% Win Probability (After): 20.7% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:14 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 25) JT Daniels pass incomplete - BAY 24, WVU 17 | -0.20 | 20.7% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 0.64 = -0.20 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.36) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.56) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 20.7% Win Probability (After): 20.3% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:14 | |
(2nd & 10 at WVU 25) JT Daniels run for 3 yds to the WVirg 28 - BAY 24, WVU 17 | -0.22 | 20.3% | -0.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 72 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - 0.44 = -0.22 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.56) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.78) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 20.3% Win Probability (After): 19.4% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:14 | |
(3rd & 7 at WVU 28) JT Daniels pass incomplete - BAY 24, WVU 17 | -0.76 | 19.4% | -2.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 72 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.55 - 0.22 = -0.76 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.78) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.55) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.4% Win Probability (After): 16.5% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:46 | |
(4th & 7 at WVU 28) Oliver Straw punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Gavin Holmes at the Bayl 27 - BAY 24, WVU 17 | -0.60 | 17.4% | -1.0% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 73 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.05 - -0.46 = -0.60 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.46) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.05) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 17.4% Win Probability (After): 16.4% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 0:46 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 27) Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 20 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST down - BAY 24, WVU 17 | 0.69 | 83.3% | 2.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 53 Started Drive at: BAY 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.28 - 0.59 = 0.69 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.59) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 83.3% Win Probability (After): 85.4% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:46 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 47) Blake Shapen pass incomplete - BAY 24, WVU 17 | -0.15 | 85.4% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53 Started Drive at: BAY 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 1.28 = -0.15 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.28) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.13) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.4% Win Probability (After): 85.2% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:24 | |
(2nd & 10 at BAY 47) Blake Shapen run for 5 yds to the WVirg 48 - BAY 24, WVU 17 | 0.35 | 85.1% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 48 Started Drive at: BAY 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 0.78 = 0.35 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.78) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.12) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.1% Win Probability (After): 85.0% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:24 | |
(3rd & 5 at WVU 48) Timeout BAYLOR, clock 00:24 - BAY 24, WVU 17 | 0.00 | 85.3% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48 Started Drive at: BAY 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 1.12 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.12) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.12) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.3% Win Probability (After): 85.3% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:24 | |
(3rd & 5 at WVU 48) Blake Shapen pass incomplete - BAY 24, WVU 17 | -0.45 | 84.7% | -1.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 48 Started Drive at: BAY 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.36 - 0.81 = -0.45 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.81) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 84.7% Win Probability (After): 83.0% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q2 0:12 | |
(4th & 5 at WVU 48) Issac Power punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Preston Fox at the WVirg 10 - BAY 24, WVU 17 | -0.31 | 82.7% | -4.5% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 90 Started Drive at: BAY 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.09 - 0.23 = -0.31 Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.23) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.91) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.7% Win Probability (After): 78.2% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 0:00 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 10) Tony Mathis Jr. run for 15 yds to the WVirg 25 for a 1ST down - BAY 24, WVU 17 | 0.01 | 21.2% | 2.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 75 Started Drive at: WVU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.08 - -0.01 = 0.01 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.01) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.2% Win Probability (After): 23.2% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at WVU 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 24, WVU 17 | 0.00 | 23.2% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.48 - -0.48 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.48) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.2% Win Probability (After): 23.2% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 15:00 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 25) Garrett Greene run for 2 yds to the WVirg 27 - BAY 24, WVU 17 | -0.44 | 23.2% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.92 - -0.48 = -0.44 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.48) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.2% Win Probability (After): 22.7% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 15:00 | |
(2nd & 8 at WVU 27) JT Daniels pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 9 yds to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST down - BAY 24, WVU 17 | 1.53 | 22.7% | 1.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 64 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.61 - -0.92 = 1.53 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.92) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.7% Win Probability (After): 24.3% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 15:00 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 36) Tony Mathis Jr. run for 4 yds to the WVirg 40 - BAY 24, WVU 17 | -0.10 | 24.3% | 0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 60 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.51 - 0.61 = -0.10 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.39) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.49) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 24.3% Win Probability (After): 24.4% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 15:00 | |
(2nd & 6 at WVU 40) Tony Mathis Jr. run for 7 yds to the WVirg 47 for a 1ST down - BAY 24, WVU 17 | 0.86 | 24.4% | 1.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 53 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - 0.51 = 0.86 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.49) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.64) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 24.4% Win Probability (After): 25.8% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 15:00 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 47) JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 8 yds to the Bayl 45 - BAY 24, WVU 17 | 0.69 | 25.8% | 0.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 45 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.06 - 1.36 = 0.69 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.64) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.94) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.8% Win Probability (After): 26.6% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:02 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 43) Timeout WEST VIRGINIA, clock 12:02 - BAY 24, WVU 17 | 0.00 | 27.7% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 43 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.06 - 2.06 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.94) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.94) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.7% Win Probability (After): 27.7% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:02 | |
(2nd & 2 at BAY 45) Tony Mathis Jr. run for 2 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST down - BAY 24, WVU 17 | 0.07 | 27.3% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 43 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.40 - 2.33 = 0.07 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.67) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.60) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.3% Win Probability (After): 27.3% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:02 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 43) JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 9 yds to the Bayl 34 - BAY 24, WVU 17 | 1.03 | 27.3% | 1.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 34 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.43 - 2.40 = 1.03 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.60) Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.57) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.3% Win Probability (After): 28.6% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:02 | |
(2nd & 1 at BAY 34) Tony Mathis Jr. run for 10 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST down - BAY 24, WVU 17 | 0.36 | 28.6% | 1.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 24 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.79 - 3.43 = 0.36 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.57) Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.21) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.6% Win Probability (After): 30.0% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:02 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 24) JT Daniels pass incomplete - BAY 24, WVU 17 | -0.60 | 30.0% | -1.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 24 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 3.79 = -0.60 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.21) Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.81) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 17 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 30.0% Win Probability (After): 28.7% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (17) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:19 | |
(2nd & 10 at BAY 24) Kaden Prather 24 Yd pass from JT Daniels (Casey Legg Kick) - BAY 24, WVU 24 | 3.75 | 28.3% | 16.5% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 99 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.25 = 3.75 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.75) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.3% Win Probability (After): 44.8% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 17 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:12 | |
(Kickoff at BAY 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 59 yds , Craig Williams return for 20 yds to the Bayl 26 - BAY 24, WVU 24 | 1.77 | 60.2% | 1.9% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 74 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.95 - 1.18 = 1.77 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.18) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.95) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.2% Win Probability (After): 62.1% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 10:12 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 26) Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 28 - BAY 24, WVU 24 | -0.81 | 60.7% | -2.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 72 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.66 - 1.48 = -0.81 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.48) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.66) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.7% Win Probability (After): 58.1% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 10:12 | |
(2nd & 8 at BAY 28) Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 7 yds to the Bayl 35 - BAY 24, WVU 24 | 0.91 | 58.1% | 0.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 65 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.58 - 0.66 = 0.91 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.66) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.58) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.1% Win Probability (After): 59.1% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 10:12 | |
(3rd & 1 at BAY 35) Blake Shapen pass incomplete - BAY 24, WVU 24 | -1.75 | 59.1% | -5.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.18 - 1.58 = -1.75 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.58) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.18) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.1% Win Probability (After): 54.1% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 10:12 | |
(4th & 1 at BAY 35) Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST down - BAY 24, WVU 24 | 2.26 | 54.1% | 7.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 63 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.09 - -0.18 = 2.26 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.18) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.1% Win Probability (After): 61.5% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 10:12 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 37) Blake Shapen pass incomplete - BAY 24, WVU 24 | -0.66 | 61.5% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.43 - 2.09 = -0.66 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.09) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 61.5% Win Probability (After): 60.9% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 10:12 | |
(2nd & 10 at BAY 37) Richard Reese run for 22 yds to the WVirg 41 for a 1ST down - BAY 24, WVU 24 | 2.13 | 60.9% | 4.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 41 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.56 - 1.43 = 2.13 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.43) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.56) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 33 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.9% Win Probability (After): 65.5% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 10:12 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 41) Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the WVirg 40 - BAY 24, WVU 24 | -0.52 | 65.5% | -0.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 40 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.04 - 3.56 = -0.52 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.56) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.04) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 34 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.5% Win Probability (After): 64.7% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 10:12 | |
(2nd & 9 at WVU 40) Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 25 yds to the WVirg 15 for a 1ST down - BAY 24, WVU 24 | 2.02 | 64.7% | 5.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 40 -> 15 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.06 - 3.04 = 2.02 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.04) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.06) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 59 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.7% Win Probability (After): 70.5% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 10:12 | |
(1st & Goal at WVU 6) Qualan Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 7 - BAY 24, WVU 24 | -0.78 | 72.4% | -1.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 7 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.97 - 5.75 = -0.78 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.75) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 58 yards Win Probability (Before): 72.4% Win Probability (After): 70.7% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 10:12 | |
(2nd & Goal at WVU 7) Qualan Jones run for 5 yds to the WVirg 2 - BAY 24, WVU 24 | 0.41 | 70.7% | 0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 2 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.37 - 4.97 = 0.41 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.97) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.37) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 63 yards Win Probability (Before): 70.7% Win Probability (After): 71.4% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 10:12 | |
(3rd & Goal at WVU 2) Kyron Drones pass incomplete - BAY 24, WVU 24 | -1.72 | 71.4% | -6.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 2 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.66 - 5.37 = -1.72 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.37) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.66) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 24, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 63 yards Win Probability (Before): 71.4% Win Probability (After): 65.4% Away Score: 24 (24) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 5:21 | |
(4th & Goal at WVU 2) Hal Presley 2 Yd pass from Kyron Drones (John Mayers Kick) - BAY 31, WVU 24 | 3.39 | 67.9% | 14.4% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.61 = 3.39 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.61) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.9% Win Probability (After): 82.3% Away Score: 24 (31) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 5:21 | |
(Kickoff at WVU 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 31, WVU 24 | 0.00 | 19.8% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.05 - -0.05 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.05) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.05) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.8% Win Probability (After): 19.8% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 5:21 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 25) JT Daniels pass complete to Justin Johnson Jr. for 4 yds to the WVirg 29 - BAY 31, WVU 24 | -0.05 | 19.8% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - -0.05 = -0.05 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.05) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.10) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.8% Win Probability (After): 19.3% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 5:21 | |
(2nd & 6 at WVU 29) Justin Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the WVirg 31 - BAY 31, WVU 24 | -0.33 | 19.3% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 69 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.43 - -0.10 = -0.33 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.10) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.3% Win Probability (After): 18.7% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 5:21 | |
(3rd & 4 at WVU 31) JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 5 yds to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST down - BAY 31, WVU 24 | 1.41 | 18.7% | 3.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 64 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - -0.43 = 1.41 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.43) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.01) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.7% Win Probability (After): 21.8% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 5:21 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 36) JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 32 yds to the Bayl 32 for a 1ST down - BAY 31, WVU 24 | 2.45 | 21.8% | 7.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 32 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.43 - 0.99 = 2.45 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.01) Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.57) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 43 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.8% Win Probability (After): 29.4% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 5:21 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 32) JT Daniels pass incomplete - BAY 31, WVU 24 | -0.64 | 29.4% | -1.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 32 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.79 - 3.43 = -0.64 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.57) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.21) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 43 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.4% Win Probability (After): 27.6% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 2:40 | |
(3rd & 8 at BAY 30) Timeout WEST VIRGINIA, clock 02:40 - BAY 31, WVU 24 | 0.00 | 25.8% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.79 - 2.79 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.21) Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.21) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 43 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.8% Win Probability (After): 25.8% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 2:40 | |
(2nd & 10 at BAY 32) Justin Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Bayl 30 - BAY 31, WVU 24 | -0.82 | 26.4% | -3.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 32 -> 30 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - 2.79 = -0.82 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.21) Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.03) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.4% Win Probability (After): 22.6% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 2:40 | |
(3rd & 8 at BAY 30) JT Daniels pass complete to Sam James for 11 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST down - BAY 31, WVU 24 | 2.45 | 22.6% | 8.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 19 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.43 - 1.97 = 2.45 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.03) Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.57) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 24 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 56 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.6% Win Probability (After): 31.2% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (24) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 1:42 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 19) Justin Johnson Jr. 19 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick) - BAY 31, WVU 31 | 2.57 | 31.4% | 11.3% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 99 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.43 = 2.57 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.57) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 31 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.4% Win Probability (After): 42.7% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 24 (31) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 1:36 | |
(Kickoff at BAY 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 60 yds , Jordan Nabors return for 21 yds to the Bayl 26 - BAY 31, WVU 31 | 1.84 | 59.3% | 6.2% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 74 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 1.16 = 1.84 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.16) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 31 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.3% Win Probability (After): 65.5% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 31 (31) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q3 1:36 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 26) Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 25 - BAY 31, WVU 31 | -1.27 | 60.6% | -4.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 75 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.18 - 1.45 = -1.27 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.45) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.18) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 31 Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.6% Win Probability (After): 56.0% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 31 (31) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q3 1:36 | |
(2nd & 11 at BAY 25) Kyron Drones pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - BAY 31, WVU 31 | 2.67 | 56.0% | 9.5% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 50 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.86 - 0.18 = 2.67 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.18) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 31 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 24 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.0% Win Probability (After): 65.6% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 31 (31) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q3 0:00 | |
(1st & 10 at 50) Kyron Drones pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 20 yds to the WVirg 30 for a 1ST down - BAY 31, WVU 31 | 1.32 | 64.7% | 5.2% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 30 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.16 - 2.84 = 1.32 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.84) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 31 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 44 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.7% Win Probability (After): 70.0% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 31 (31) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 15:00 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 30) Kyron Drones pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 18 yds to the WVirg 12 for a 1ST down - BAY 31, WVU 31 | 0.95 | 69.1% | 3.6% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 12 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.07 - 4.13 = 0.95 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.13) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.07) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 31 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 62 yards Win Probability (Before): 69.1% Win Probability (After): 72.7% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 31 (31) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 15:00 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 12) Qualan Jones run for 8 yds to the WVirg 4 - BAY 31, WVU 31 | 0.74 | 72.7% | 0.8% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 4 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.81 - 5.07 = 0.74 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.07) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.81) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 31, WVU 31 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 70 yards Win Probability (Before): 72.7% Win Probability (After): 73.5% Away Score: 31 (31) Home Score: 31 (31) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 13:39 | |
(2nd & 2 at WVU 4) Qualan Jones 4 Yd Run (John Mayers PAT blocked) - BAY 37, WVU 31 | 1.09 | 74.4% | 7.0% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99 Started Drive at: BAY 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.92 - 5.83 = 1.09 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.83) Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 31 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 74.4% Win Probability (After): 81.4% Away Score: 31 (37) Home Score: 31 (31) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 13:39 | |
(Kickoff at WVU 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - BAY 37, WVU 31 | 0.00 | 22.0% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.89 - 0.89 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.11) Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.11) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 31 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.0% Win Probability (After): 22.0% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 31 (31) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:39 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 25) JT Daniels pass incomplete - BAY 37, WVU 33 | -0.75 | 22.0% | 6.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.15 - 0.89 = -0.75 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.11) Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.85) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 33 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.0% Win Probability (After): 28.0% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 31 (33) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:39 | |
(2nd & 10 at WVU 25) JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 9 yds to the WVirg 34 - BAY 37, WVU 33 | 0.97 | 28.0% | 1.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 66 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.11 - 0.15 = 0.97 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.85) Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.89) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 33 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.0% Win Probability (After): 29.3% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (33) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:39 | |
(3rd & 1 at WVU 34) Tony Mathis Jr. run for 3 yds to the WVirg 37 for a 1ST down - BAY 37, WVU 33 | 0.63 | 29.3% | 2.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 63 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.75 - 1.11 = 0.63 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.89) Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.25) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 33 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.3% Win Probability (After): 31.5% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (33) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:39 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 37) JT Daniels pass complete to Jeremiah Aaron for 6 yds to the WVirg 43 - BAY 37, WVU 33 | 0.21 | 31.5% | 0.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 57 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 1.75 = 0.21 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.25) Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.05) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 33 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 18 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.5% Win Probability (After): 32.1% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (33) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:39 | |
(2nd & 4 at WVU 43) Tony Mathis Jr. run for 4 yds to the WVirg 47 for a 1ST down - BAY 37, WVU 33 | 0.40 | 32.1% | 1.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 53 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.36 - 1.95 = 0.40 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.05) Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.64) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 33 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.1% Win Probability (After): 33.3% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (33) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:39 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 47) JT Daniels pass incomplete - BAY 37, WVU 33 | -0.61 | 33.3% | -1.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 53 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.75 - 2.36 = -0.61 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.64) Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.25) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 33 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 22 yards Win Probability (Before): 33.3% Win Probability (After): 31.6% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (33) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:39 | |
(2nd & 10 at WVU 47) JT Daniels pass complete to Preston Fox for 7 yds to the Bayl 46 - BAY 37, WVU 33 | 0.25 | 31.6% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 46 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.00 - 1.75 = 0.25 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.25) Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 33 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.6% Win Probability (After): 31.3% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (33) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:39 | |
(3rd & 3 at BAY 46) JT Daniels pass complete to Preston Fox for 2 yds to the Bayl 44 - BAY 37, WVU 33 | -0.86 | 31.3% | -1.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 44 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - 2.00 = -0.86 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.00) Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 33 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.3% Win Probability (After): 29.5% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (33) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 9:47 | |
(4th & 1 at BAY 44) Tony Mathis Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 45 - BAY 37, WVU 33 | -4.12 | 28.9% | -7.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 55 Started Drive at: WVU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.80 - 1.32 = -4.12 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.68) Score Difference (End): 4 (6.80) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 37, WVU 33 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 30 yards Win Probability (Before): 28.9% Win Probability (After): 21.0% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (33) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 9:47 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 45) Monaray Baldwin run for 20 yds to the WVirg 35 for a 1ST down - BAY 37, WVU 33 | 1.06 | 81.5% | 2.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 35 Started Drive at: BAY 45 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.77 - 2.71 = 1.06 Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.71) Score Difference (End): 4 (7.77) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 33 Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.5% Win Probability (After): 83.8% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (33) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 9:01 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 35) Qualan Jones run for 7 yds to the WVirg 28 Qualan Jones fumbled, recovered by WVirg Jasir Cox - BAY 37, WVU 33 | -4.92 | 85.1% | -13.1% |
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Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 72 Started Drive at: BAY 45 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.19 - 3.73 = -4.92 Score Difference (Before): 4 (7.73) Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.81) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 37, WVU 33 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.1% Win Probability (After): 72.0% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (33) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 9:01 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 28) Timeout WEST VIRGINIA, clock 09:01 - BAY 37, WVU 33 | 0.00 | 27.3% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 72 Started Drive at: BAY 45 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 1.13 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.87) Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.87) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 33 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.3% Win Probability (After): 27.3% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (33) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 9:01 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 28) JT Daniels pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 18 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST down - BAY 37, WVU 33 | 1.19 | 27.3% | 4.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 54 Started Drive at: WVU 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.32 - 1.13 = 1.19 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.87) Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.68) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 33 Drive Summary: 1 play, 18 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.3% Win Probability (After): 31.9% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (33) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 9:01 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 46) Justin Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the WVirg 49 - BAY 37, WVU 33 | -0.38 | 31.9% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 51 Started Drive at: WVU 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.94 - 2.32 = -0.38 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.68) Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.06) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 33 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.9% Win Probability (After): 31.2% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (33) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 9:01 | |
(2nd & 7 at WVU 49) Justin Johnson Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the WVirg 48 - BAY 37, WVU 33 | -0.91 | 31.2% | -4.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 52 Started Drive at: WVU 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 1.94 = -0.91 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.06) Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 33 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.2% Win Probability (After): 27.1% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (33) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 9:01 | |
(3rd & 8 at WVU 48) JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 18 yds to the Bayl 34 for a 1ST down - BAY 37, WVU 33 | 2.60 | 27.1% | 13.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 34 Started Drive at: WVU 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.63 - 1.03 = 2.60 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.97) Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.37) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 33 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 38 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.1% Win Probability (After): 40.4% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (33) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 9:01 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 34) JT Daniels pass incomplete - BAY 37, WVU 33 | -0.52 | 40.4% | -4.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 34 Started Drive at: WVU 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.12 - 3.63 = -0.52 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.37) Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.88) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 33 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 38 yards Win Probability (Before): 40.4% Win Probability (After): 36.1% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (33) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 7:06 | |
(2nd & 10 at BAY 34) Tony Mathis Jr. 34 Yd Run (Casey Legg Kick) - BAY 37, WVU 40 | 3.85 | 34.5% | 25.1% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99 Started Drive at: WVU 28 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.15 = 3.85 Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.85) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 72 yards Win Probability (Before): 34.5% Win Probability (After): 59.6% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 33 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 6:59 | |
(Kickoff at BAY 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 65 yds , Jordan Nabors return for 32 yds to the Bayl 32 - BAY 37, WVU 40 | 1.67 | 42.9% | 5.6% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 68 Started Drive at: BAY 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.55 - 0.88 = 1.67 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.12) Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.45) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 42.9% Win Probability (After): 48.5% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 6:59 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 32) Kyron Drones pass complete to Drake Dabney for 11 yds to the Bayl 43 for a 1ST down - BAY 37, WVU 40 | 0.68 | 44.2% | 2.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 57 Started Drive at: BAY 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.11 - 1.43 = 0.68 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.57) Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.89) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 44.2% Win Probability (After): 46.8% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 6:59 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 43) Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the Bayl 46 - BAY 37, WVU 40 | -0.26 | 46.8% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 54 Started Drive at: BAY 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.84 - 2.11 = -0.26 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.89) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.8% Win Probability (After): 46.2% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 6:59 | |
(2nd & 7 at BAY 46) Kyron Drones pass incomplete - BAY 37, WVU 40 | -0.82 | 46.2% | -2.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54 Started Drive at: BAY 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 1.84 = -0.82 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.16) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.97) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 46.2% Win Probability (After): 43.8% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 6:59 | |
(3rd & 7 at BAY 46) Kyron Drones pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 15 yds to the WVirg 39 for a 1ST down - BAY 37, WVU 40 | 2.33 | 43.8% | 13.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 39 Started Drive at: BAY 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.35 - 1.03 = 2.33 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.97) Score Difference (End): -3 (0.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 43.8% Win Probability (After): 57.6% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 6:59 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 39) Richard Reese run for 8 yds to the WVirg 31 - BAY 37, WVU 40 | 0.65 | 57.6% | 2.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 31 Started Drive at: BAY 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.00 - 3.35 = 0.65 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.35) Score Difference (End): -3 (1.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 37 yards Win Probability (Before): 57.6% Win Probability (After): 60.3% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 6:59 | |
(2nd & 2 at WVU 31) BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Brooks Miller) to the WVirg 36 - BAY 37, WVU 40 | -0.90 | 60.3% | -4.3% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 36 Started Drive at: BAY 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.10 - 4.00 = -0.90 Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.00) Score Difference (End): -3 (0.10) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 37 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.3% Win Probability (After): 56.0% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 6:59 | |
(2nd & 7 at WVU 36) WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Malachi Ruffin) to the WVirg 21 for a 1ST down - BAY 37, WVU 40 | 1.33 | 56.0% | 8.6% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 21 Started Drive at: BAY 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.43 - 3.10 = 1.33 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.10) Score Difference (End): -3 (1.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 37 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.0% Win Probability (After): 64.6% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 6:59 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 21) Qualan Jones run for 2 yds to the WVirg 19 - BAY 37, WVU 40 | -0.44 | 64.6% | -2.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 19 Started Drive at: BAY 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.98 - 4.43 = -0.44 Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.43) Score Difference (End): -3 (0.98) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.6% Win Probability (After): 62.2% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 3:19 | |
(2nd & 8 at WVU 19) Kyron Drones pass intercepted - BAY 37, WVU 40 | -5.00 | 65.7% | -28.8% |
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Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 81 Started Drive at: BAY 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.15 - 3.85 = -5.00 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.85) Score Difference (End): 3 (4.15) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 65.7% Win Probability (After): 36.9% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 3:19 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 19) WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Ja'Quay Hubbard) to the WVirg 14 - BAY 37, WVU 40 | -0.51 | 75.1% | -2.3% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 86 Started Drive at: BAY 32 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.33 - 0.84 = -0.51 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.84) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.33) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.1% Win Probability (After): 72.8% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 3:12 | |
(1st & 15 at WVU 14) JT Daniels pass intercepted WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on POLENDEY, Brian ( Yards) declined - BAY 37, WVU 40 | -4.12 | 72.5% | -37.0% |
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Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 86 -> 26 Started Drive at: WVU 19 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.79 - 0.33 = -4.12 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.33) Score Difference (End): -3 (0.79) Change of Possession: 1 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 72.5% Win Probability (After): 35.5% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 3:12 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 26) Richard Reese run for a loss of 4 yards to the WVirg 30 - BAY 37, WVU 40 | -1.41 | 64.3% | -20.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 30 Started Drive at: WVU 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.33 - 3.75 = -1.41 Score Difference (Before): -3 (0.75) Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.67) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.3% Win Probability (After): 44.2% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 3:12 | |
(2nd & 14 at WVU 30) Kyron Drones pass complete to Ben Sims for 4 yds to the WVirg 26 - BAY 37, WVU 40 | 0.41 | 44.2% | 3.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 26 Started Drive at: WVU 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - 2.33 = 0.41 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.67) Score Difference (End): -3 (-0.26) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 44.2% Win Probability (After): 47.7% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 3:12 | |
(3rd & 10 at WVU 26) Kyron Drones pass incomplete - BAY 37, WVU 40 | -1.14 | 47.7% | -9.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26 Started Drive at: WVU 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 2.74 = -1.14 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-0.26) Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.40) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 37, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 47.7% Win Probability (After): 38.2% Away Score: 37 (37) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 1:40 | |
(4th & 10 at WVU 27) John Mayers 44 Yd Field Goal - BAY 40, WVU 40 | 1.52 | 31.9% | 22.8% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 65 Started Drive at: WVU 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 1.48 = 1.52 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.52) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.9% Win Probability (After): 54.7% Away Score: 37 (40) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 1:33 | |
(Kickoff at WVU 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 60 yds , Jeremiah Aaron return for 29 yds to the WVirg 34 - BAY 40, WVU 40 | 0.60 | 59.9% | 3.5% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 66 Started Drive at: WVU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.80 - 1.20 = 0.60 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.20) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.80) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.9% Win Probability (After): 63.4% Away Score: 40 (40) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 1:33 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 34) JT Daniels pass incomplete - BAY 40, WVU 40 | -0.45 | 63.6% | -3.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66 Started Drive at: WVU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.16 - 1.61 = -0.45 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.61) Score Difference (End): 0 (1.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 63.6% Win Probability (After): 59.7% Away Score: 40 (40) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 1:33 | |
(2nd & 10 at WVU 34) JT Daniels pass complete to Kaden Prather for 12 yds to the WVirg 46 for a 1ST down - BAY 40, WVU 40 | 1.11 | 59.7% | 13.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 54 Started Drive at: WVU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.28 - 1.16 = 1.11 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.16) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.7% Win Probability (After): 73.3% Away Score: 40 (40) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 1:33 | |
(1st & 10 at WVU 46) Tony Mathis Jr. run for 9 yds to the Bayl 45 - BAY 40, WVU 40 | 0.46 | 73.3% | 2.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 45 Started Drive at: WVU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - 2.28 = 0.46 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.28) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.74) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards Win Probability (Before): 73.3% Win Probability (After): 76.2% Away Score: 40 (40) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 1:33 | |
(2nd & 1 at BAY 45) Tony Mathis Jr. run for 37 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST down - BAY 40, WVU 40 | 2.16 | 76.2% | 8.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 8 Started Drive at: WVU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.89 - 2.74 = 2.16 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.74) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.89) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 58 yards Win Probability (Before): 76.2% Win Probability (After): 85.0% Away Score: 40 (40) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 0:44 | |
(2nd & Goal at BAY 2) Timeout BAYLOR, clock 00:44 - BAY 40, WVU 40 | 0.00 | 91.9% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 2 Started Drive at: WVU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.89 - 4.89 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.89) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.89) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 58 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.9% Win Probability (After): 91.9% Away Score: 40 (40) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 0:44 | |
(1st & Goal at BAY 8) Tony Mathis Jr. run for 6 yds to the Bayl 2 - BAY 40, WVU 40 | 0.76 | 91.9% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 2 Started Drive at: WVU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.68 - 4.92 = 0.76 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.92) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.68) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 64 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.9% Win Probability (After): 91.9% Away Score: 40 (40) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 0:44 | |
(2nd & Goal at BAY 2) Tony Mathis Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 3 - BAY 40, WVU 40 | -1.22 | 91.9% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 3 Started Drive at: WVU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.47 - 5.68 = -1.22 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.68) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.47) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 63 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.9% Win Probability (After): 91.4% Away Score: 40 (40) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 0:41 | |
(3rd & Goal at BAY 3) Tony Mathis Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 5 - BAY 40, WVU 40 | -1.54 | 91.7% | -5.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 5 Started Drive at: WVU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.91 - 4.45 = -1.54 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.45) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.91) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.7% Win Probability (After): 86.5% Away Score: 40 (40) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 0:41 | |
(4th & Goal at BAY 5) Timeout WEST VIRGINIA, clock 00:41 - BAY 40, WVU 40 | 0.00 | 87.9% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 5 Started Drive at: WVU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.91 - 2.91 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.91) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.91) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 40 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards Win Probability (Before): 87.9% Win Probability (After): 87.9% Away Score: 40 (40) Home Score: 40 (40) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 0:33 | |
(4th & Goal at BAY 5) Casey Legg 22 Yd Field Goal - BAY 40, WVU 43 | 0.06 | 89.0% | 3.7% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 65 Started Drive at: WVU 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.94 = 0.06 Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.94) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 43 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards Win Probability (Before): 89.0% Win Probability (After): 92.7% Away Score: 40 (40) Home Score: 40 (43) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 0:27 | |
(Kickoff at BAY 35) Parker Grothaus kickoff for 58 yds , Jordan Nabors return for 16 yds to the Bayl 23 - BAY 40, WVU 43 | 0.17 | 8.2% | 2.9% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 77 Started Drive at: BAY 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - 0.28 = 0.17 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.72) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.55) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 43 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.2% Win Probability (After): 11.1% Away Score: 40 (40) Home Score: 43 (43) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 0:27 | |
(1st & 10 at BAY 23) Kyron Drones run for 7 yds to the Bayl 30 - BAY 40, WVU 43 | 0.18 | 8.2% | 1.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 70 Started Drive at: BAY 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 0.25 = 0.18 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.75) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.57) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 43 Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.2% Win Probability (After): 9.5% Away Score: 40 (40) Home Score: 43 (43) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 0:13 | |
(3rd & 3 at BAY 30) Timeout WEST VIRGINIA, clock 00:13 - BAY 40, WVU 43 | 0.00 | 8.9% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70 Started Drive at: BAY 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.43 - 0.43 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.57) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.57) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 43 Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.9% Win Probability (After): 8.9% Away Score: 40 (40) Home Score: 43 (43) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 0:13 | |
(2nd & 3 at BAY 30) Kyron Drones pass incomplete - BAY 40, WVU 43 | -0.07 | 8.7% | 0.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70 Started Drive at: BAY 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 0.19 = -0.07 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.81) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.87) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 43 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.7% Win Probability (After): 8.9% Away Score: 40 (40) Home Score: 43 (43) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 0:13 | |
(3rd & 3 at BAY 30) Kyron Drones pass incomplete - BAY 40, WVU 43 | -0.17 | 8.9% | -1.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70 Started Drive at: BAY 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - 0.13 = -0.17 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.87) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.04) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 43 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.9% Win Probability (After): 7.7% Away Score: 40 (40) Home Score: 43 (43) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 0:00 | |
(4th & 3 at BAY 30) Kyron Drones run for 17 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST down - BAY 40, WVU 43 | 0.56 | 7.3% | -7.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 53 Started Drive at: BAY 23 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.48 - -0.07 = 0.56 Score Difference (Before): -3 (-3.07) Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.52) Change of Possession: 0 Score: BAY 40, WVU 43 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards Win Probability (Before): 7.3% Win Probability (After): 0.0% Away Score: 40 (40) Home Score: 43 (43) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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