Kansas 23 @ Baylor 35

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 1.62 | Odds: BAY -10.5, O/U 56.5 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Concept from Robert Binion (@robert_binion). Cell colors reflect the percentile of a team's performance against all single-game FBS vs FBS performances in that stat in 2022.
Overall ESPN team id 2305 ESPN team id 239
EPA/Play -0.02 44th %ile0.00 47th %ile
Success Rate 37% 29th %ile46% 73rd %ile
Yards/Play 5.92 53rd %ile5.31 36th %ile
EPA/Dropback -0.03 45th %ile-0.26 22nd %ile
EPA/Rush 0.00 48th %ile0.13 70th %ile
Yards/Dropback 8.29 81st %ile5.66 42nd %ile
Explosive Play Rate 16% 98th %ile8% 47th %ile
3rd Down Success Rate 50% 75th %ile56% 85th %ile
Red Zone Success Rate 38% 44th %ile41% 51st %ile
Def Run Stuff Rate 4% 0th %ile10% 0th %ile
Havoc Rate 6% 20th %ile7% 28th %ile
Expected Points ESPN team id 2305 ESPN team id 239
Total Plays 5989
Total EPA -1.770.17
  Offensive EPA -0.91-0.24
  Special Teams EPA -2.341.28
  Penalty EPA 1.17-0.87
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 0.310.00
Production ESPN team id 2305 ESPN team id 239
Scrimmage Plays 4983
  Yards 290441
  Yards/Play 5.925.31
  EPA -0.91-0.24
  EPA/Play -0.020.00
Passes 28 (57%)29 (35%)
  Yards 232164
  Yards/Play 8.295.66
  EPA -0.97-7.48
  EPA/Play -0.03-0.26
Rushes 21 (43%)54 (65%)
  Yards 61299
  Yards/Play 3.055.86
  EPA 0.067.24
  EPA/Play 0.000.13
Rushing ESPN team id 2305 ESPN team id 239
Scrimmage Plays 4983
Rushes 21 (43%)54 (65%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 0 (0%)4 (7%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 0 (0%)2 (50%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 2 (10%)2 (4%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 11 (52%)16 (30%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 7 (33%)27 (50%)
OL Line Yards 43.6111.5
  Per Carry 2.082.06
Highlight Yards 4.590
  Per Rush Opportunity 0.643.33
Explosiveness ESPN team id 2305 ESPN team id 239
Total Plays 5989
Scrimmage Plays 4983
Explosive Plays 8 (16%)7 (8%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 6 (21%)3 (10%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 2 (10%)4 (7%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -22.77-17.96
  EPA/Play -0.56-0.24
  When Passing -18.48-16.57
    EPA/Play -0.66-0.57
  When Rushing -4.30-1.40
    EPA/Play -0.23-0.03
Situational ESPN team id 2305 ESPN team id 239
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 18 (37%)38 (46%)
  When Passing 9 (32%)13 (45%)
  When Rushing 9 (43%)25 (46%)
  On Standard Downs 11 (37%)29 (49%)
  On Passing Downs 7 (37%)9 (38%)
  On Early Downs 12 (32%)26 (41%)
  On Late Downs 6 (50%)12 (60%)
  During "Middle 8" 2 (40%)8 (42%)
Early Downs 3763
  First Downs Created 5 (14%)14 (22%)
  EPA -10.23-13.23
  EPA/Play -0.28-0.21
  Passes 19 (51%)20 (32%)
  Rushes 18 (49%)43 (68%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 5 (26%)7 (35%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 7 (39%)19 (44%)
"Middle 8" Plays 519
  EPA -4.254.41
  EPA/play -0.850.23
  Passes 3 (60%)9 (47%)
  Rushes 2 (40%)10 (53%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 0 (0%)4 (44%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 2 (100%)4 (40%)
Drives ESPN team id 2305 ESPN team id 239
Total 1111
Avg Starting Field Position Own 23Own 30
Plays/Drive 7.5910.37
Yards/Drive 51.9455.37
Available Yards % 68%79%
Defensive ESPN team id 2305 ESPN team id 239
Scrimmage Plays 8349
Stop Rate 34%31%
Havoc Plays Created 6 (7%)3 (6%)
  Passing 6 (21%)2 (7%)
  Rushing 0 (0%)1 (5%)
TFLs Generated 33
  Passing 32
  Rushing 01
Sacks Generated 2 (7%)1 (4%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 30
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 2305 ESPN team id 239
Turnovers 25
  Fumbles 32
  Fumbles Lost 22
  Fumbles Recovered 10
  Interceptions 03
Turnover Margin 3-3
Expected Turnovers 1.51.7
Expected Turnover Margin 0.2-0.2
Turnover Luck (pts) 14.2-14.2
Special Teams ESPN team id 2305 ESPN team id 239
Total Plays 10 6
Total EPA -2.34 1.28
  Field Goal EPA 0.94 0
  Punting EPA -2.98 1.28
  Kickoff Return EPA -0.31 0

Kansas [show/hide]

ESPN team id 2305
Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Jason Bean 16/27, 232 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 54.3 xQBR, 0.29 DETMER 8.29 -0.03 -0.97 32% 0.0%
Rush attempts
Jason Bean 7 carries, 28 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 0.50 3.47 43% 12.0%
Devin Neal 10 carries, 32 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.20 0.01 0.07 50% 0.0%
Sevion Morrison 2 carries, 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.50 -0.73 -1.47 0% -1.0%
Pass targets
Lawrence Arnold 3 catches (3 targets), 53 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 17.67 2.40 7.20 100% 5.0%
Jared Casey 1 catch (1 target), 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 20.00 2.85 2.85 100% 1.0%
Mason Fairchild 2 catches (2 targets), 19 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.50 1.42 2.84 50% 2.0%
Trevor Wilson 2 catches (2 targets), 52 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 26.00 1.25 2.51 50% 4.0%
Sevion Morrison 1 catch (1 target), 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.00 0.90 0.90 100% 0.0%
Tanaka Scott 1 catch (1 target), 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.18 -0.18 0% 0.0%
Kevin Terry 1 catch (1 target), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 -0.25 -0.25 0% 0.0%
Devin Neal 1 catch (1 target), -2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -2.00 -1.27 -1.27 0% 0.0%
Quentin Skinner 4 catches (4 targets), 66 yds, 1 TD, 2 Fum (2 lost) 16.50 -0.99 -3.95 50% -4.0%

Baylor [show/hide]

ESPN team id 239
Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Blake Shapen 17/27, 164 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT, 2 Scks, 37.5 xQBR, 0.55 DETMER 5.66 -0.26 -7.48 45% 5.0%
Rush attempts
Richard Reese 30 carries, 183 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.10 0.15 4.45 47% 9.0%
Dillon Doyle 2 carries, 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 1.62 3.25 100% 1.0%
Jordan Nabors 2 carries, 13 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.50 1.16 2.31 50% 2.0%
Kyron Drones 2 carries, 9 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.50 0.97 1.94 100% 1.0%
Qualan Jones 9 carries, 71 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.89 0.20 1.80 56% 1.0%
Blake Shapen 6 carries, 17 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 2.83 -0.77 -4.61 17% -3.0%
Pass targets
Monaray Baldwin 2 catches (2 targets), 29 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.50 2.99 5.97 100% 13.0%
Ben Sims 3 catches (3 targets), 36 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.00 1.57 4.72 100% 4.0%
Hal Presley 3 catches (3 targets), 39 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.00 1.39 4.16 100% 2.0%
Richard Reese 2 catches (2 targets), 26 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.00 1.50 2.99 100% 4.0%
Drake Dabney 1 catch (1 target), 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.00 0.70 0.70 100% 0.0%
Josh Cameron 2 catches (2 targets), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 0.27 0.54 50% -2.0%
Gavin Holmes 2 catches (2 targets), 7 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.50 -0.29 -0.58 0% 0.0%
Qualan Jones 2 catches (2 targets), 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.50 -0.71 -1.43 50% 0.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q3 8:42 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 2 at KU 27) Blake Shapen sacked for a loss of 15 yards to the Bayl 9 - KU 3, BAY 28 -9.71 99.9% -2.4%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 9

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.41 - 5.29 = -9.71

Score Difference (Before): 25 (30.29)

Score Difference (End): -25 (-20.59)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 97.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 10:55 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at KU 25) Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for no gain Quentin Skinner fumbled, recovered by Bayl Jackie Marshall - KU 0, BAY 7 -4.59 13.0% -4.6%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 25

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.75 - -0.16 = -4.59

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.16)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.75)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.0%

Win Probability (After): 8.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:05 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 9 at BAY 42) Blake Shapen pass intercepted - KU 3, BAY 21 -4.47 95.7% -1.8%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 45

Started Drive at: BAY 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.30 - 2.17 = -4.47

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.17)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-15.70)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.7%

Win Probability (After): 93.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:26 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at KU 12) Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 20 yds Quentin Skinner fumbled, recovered by Bayl Devin Lemear - KU 3, BAY 28 -4.04 4.1% -3.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 14

Started Drive at: KU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.99 - 0.05 = -4.04

Score Difference (Before): -25 (-24.95)

Score Difference (End): 25 (28.99)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2305 (3rd & 13 at BAY 47) Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 16 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST down - KU 10, BAY 28 3.80 0.8% 2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 31

Started Drive at: KU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - -0.46 = 3.80

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.46)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-14.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 2.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 11:05 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 11 at KU 17) Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 17 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - KU 0, BAY 7 3.66 77.6% 12.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99

Started Drive at: KU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.34 = 3.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:25 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 1 at KU 7) Blake Shapen run for no gain to the Kans 7 - KU 16, BAY 28 -3.42 98.8% -3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 93

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 4.05 = -3.42

Score Difference (Before): 12 (16.05)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.63)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.8%

Win Probability (After): 95.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 3:13 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 14 at BAY 48) Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 17 yds to the Kans 35 for a 1ST down - KU 3, BAY 14 2.96 92.6% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 35

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.26 - 1.30 = 2.96

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.30)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.6%

Win Probability (After): 94.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2305 (3rd & 8 at KU 27) Jason Bean pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 15 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST down - KU 0, BAY 14 2.90 5.6% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 58

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - -1.75 = 2.90

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.75)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 7.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:40 ESPN team id 2305 (3rd & 9 at KU 6) Jason Bean pass complete to Jared Casey for 20 yds to the Kans 26 for a 1ST down - KU 10, BAY 28 2.85 1.2% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 74

Started Drive at: KU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.15 - -3.01 = 2.85

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-21.01)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 2.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 11:05 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 11 at KU 17) Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 17 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - KU 0, BAY 7 3.66 77.6% 12.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99

Started Drive at: KU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.34 = 3.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:29 ESPN team id 2305 (3rd & Goal at BAY 4) Jason Bean run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK) - KU 23, BAY 28 2.47 7.8% 11.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: KU 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.53 = 2.47

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-7.47)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 98 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.8%

Win Probability (After): 19.7%

Away Score: 16 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:05 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 9 at BAY 42) Blake Shapen pass intercepted - KU 3, BAY 21 -1.08 99.5% -5.5%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 45

Started Drive at: BAY 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.82 - 0.26 = -1.08

Score Difference (Before): 25 (25.26)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.18)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 94.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q1 10:55 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at KU 25) Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for no gain Quentin Skinner fumbled, recovered by Bayl Jackie Marshall - KU 0, BAY 7 -4.59 13.0% -4.6%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 25

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.75 - -0.16 = -4.59

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.16)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.75)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.0%

Win Probability (After): 8.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:57 ESPN team id 2305 (4th & 8 at KU 27) Reis Vernon punt for 14 yds, downed at the Kans 41 - KU 0, BAY 0 -1.48 21.7% -4.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 41

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.40 - -1.92 = -1.48

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.92)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.40)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.7%

Win Probability (After): 17.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 14:33 ESPN team id 2305 (2nd & 3 at BAY 24) Quentin Skinner 24 Yd pass from Jason Bean (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) - KU 16, BAY 28 2.23 1.7% 4.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 99

Started Drive at: KU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 3.77 = 2.23

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.23)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 96 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.7%

Win Probability (After): 6.0%

Away Score: 10 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:26 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at KU 12) Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 20 yds Quentin Skinner fumbled, recovered by Bayl Devin Lemear - KU 3, BAY 28 -4.04 4.1% -3.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 14

Started Drive at: KU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.99 - 0.05 = -4.04

Score Difference (Before): -25 (-24.95)

Score Difference (End): 25 (28.99)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:25 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at BAY 49) Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 47 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST down - KU 16, BAY 28 2.81 7.7% 3.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 2

Started Drive at: KU 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.49 - 2.68 = 2.81

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-9.32)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-6.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 91 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.7%

Win Probability (After): 11.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q1 3:13 ESPN team id 2305 (4th & 5 at BAY 13) Jacob Borcila 30 yd FG GOOD - KU 3, BAY 14 0.94 7.2% 3.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 65

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.06 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.94)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.2%

Win Probability (After): 10.7%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 13:57 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 7 at KU 25) Richard Reese run for 9 yds to the Kans 16 for a 1ST down - KU 0, BAY 0 1.91 80.6% 3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 16

Started Drive at: KU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.98 - 3.07 = 1.91

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.6%

Win Probability (After): 83.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 11:05 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 11 at KU 17) Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 17 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - KU 0, BAY 7 3.66 77.6% 12.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99

Started Drive at: KU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.34 = 3.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at KU 14) Richard Reese run for 14 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - KU 0, BAY 14 1.67 91.8% 2.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 99

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.33 = 1.67

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.33)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.8%

Win Probability (After): 94.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:13 ESPN team id 2305 (4th & 5 at BAY 13) Jacob Borcila 30 yd FG GOOD - KU 3, BAY 14 0.94 7.2% 3.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 65

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.06 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.94)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.2%

Win Probability (After): 10.7%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:18 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 2 at KU 4) Kyron Drones run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - KU 3, BAY 21 1.62 94.5% 1.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.38 = 1.62

Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.38)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.5%

Win Probability (After): 95.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:42 ESPN team id 239 (1st & Goal at KU 10) Jordan Nabors run for 10 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - KU 3, BAY 28 2.72 97.3% 2.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.28 = 2.72

Score Difference (Before): 18 (22.28)

Score Difference (End): 25 (25.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 99 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:35 ESPN team id 2305 (3rd & Goal at BAY 2) Devin Neal run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK) - KU 10, BAY 28 1.89 1.1% 1.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.11 = 1.89

Score Difference (Before): -25 (-19.89)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 2.3%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:33 ESPN team id 2305 (2nd & 3 at BAY 24) Quentin Skinner 24 Yd pass from Jason Bean (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) - KU 16, BAY 28 2.23 1.7% 4.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 99

Started Drive at: KU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 3.77 = 2.23

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.23)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 96 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.7%

Win Probability (After): 6.0%

Away Score: 10 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 6:29 ESPN team id 2305 (3rd & Goal at BAY 4) Jason Bean run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK) - KU 23, BAY 28 2.47 7.8% 11.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: KU 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.53 = 2.47

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-7.47)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 98 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.8%

Win Probability (After): 19.7%

Away Score: 16 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:37 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & Goal at KU 2) Richard Reese run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - KU 23, BAY 35 1.43 97.1% 0.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.57 = 1.43

Score Difference (Before): 5 (10.57)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 35

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.1%

Win Probability (After): 98.0%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 28 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2305 (Kickoff at KU 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - KU 0, BAY 0 0.00 20.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.8%

Win Probability (After): 20.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at KU 25) Jason Bean pass incomplete - KU 0, BAY 0 -0.64 22.7% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - 0.86 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.7%

Win Probability (After): 21.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2305 (2nd & 10 at KU 25) Devin Neal run for 2 yds to the Kans 27 - KU 0, BAY 0 -0.96 21.4% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.74 - 0.22 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.22)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.4%

Win Probability (After): 20.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 2305 (3rd & 8 at KU 27) Jason Bean pass incomplete - KU 0, BAY 0 -1.50 20.1% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.25 - -0.74 = -1.50

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.74)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.1%

Win Probability (After): 17.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:57 ESPN team id 2305 (4th & 8 at KU 27) Reis Vernon punt for 14 yds, downed at the Kans 41 - KU 0, BAY 0 -1.48 21.7% -4.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 41

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.40 - -1.92 = -1.48

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.92)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.40)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.7%

Win Probability (After): 17.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 13:57 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at KU 41) Richard Reese run for 13 yds to the Kans 28 for a 1ST down - KU 0, BAY 0 0.80 81.4% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 28

Started Drive at: KU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.34 - 3.55 = 0.80

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.55)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.4%

Win Probability (After): 81.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:57 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at KU 28) Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the Kans 25 - KU 0, BAY 0 -0.40 81.9% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 25

Started Drive at: KU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.94 - 4.34 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.9%

Win Probability (After): 81.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:57 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 7 at KU 25) Blake Shapen pass incomplete - KU 0, BAY 0 -0.87 81.6% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 25

Started Drive at: KU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.07 - 3.94 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.94)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.6%

Win Probability (After): 80.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:57 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 7 at KU 25) Richard Reese run for 9 yds to the Kans 16 for a 1ST down - KU 0, BAY 0 1.91 80.6% 3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 16

Started Drive at: KU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.98 - 3.07 = 1.91

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.6%

Win Probability (After): 83.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:57 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at KU 16) Blake Shapen sacked by Caleb Sampson for a loss of 7 yards to the Kans 23 - KU 0, BAY 0 -1.65 83.9% -2.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 23

Started Drive at: KU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.33 - 4.98 = -1.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.98)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.9%

Win Probability (After): 81.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:57 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 17 at KU 23) Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the Kans 17 - KU 0, BAY 0 -0.01 81.4% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 17

Started Drive at: KU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.32 - 3.33 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.33)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.4%

Win Probability (After): 80.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:05 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 11 at KU 17) Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 17 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - KU 0, BAY 7 3.66 77.6% 12.5%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 99

Started Drive at: KU 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.34 = 3.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.34)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:05 ESPN team id 2305 (Kickoff at KU 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - KU 0, BAY 7 0.00 13.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - -0.19 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.19)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.0%

Win Probability (After): 13.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:55 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at KU 25) Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for no gain Quentin Skinner fumbled, recovered by Bayl Jackie Marshall - KU 0, BAY 7 -4.59 13.0% -4.6%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 25

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.75 - -0.16 = -4.59

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.16)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.75)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.0%

Win Probability (After): 8.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:55 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at KU 25) Qualan Jones run for 11 yds to the Kans 14 for a 1ST down - KU 0, BAY 7 0.55 91.6% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 14

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.30 - 4.75 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.75)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.6%

Win Probability (After): 92.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at KU 14) Richard Reese run for 14 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - KU 0, BAY 14 1.67 91.8% 2.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 99

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.33 = 1.67

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.33)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.8%

Win Probability (After): 94.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2305 (Kickoff at KU 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - KU 0, BAY 14 0.00 6.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.33 - -0.33 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.33)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.8%

Win Probability (After): 6.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at KU 25) Devin Neal run for 2 yds to the Kans 27 - KU 0, BAY 14 -0.49 6.8% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.82 - -0.33 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.33)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.8%

Win Probability (After): 6.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2305 (2nd & 8 at KU 27) Jason Bean pass incomplete - KU 0, BAY 14 -0.94 6.4% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.75 - -0.82 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.82)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 5.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2305 (3rd & 8 at KU 27) Jason Bean pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 15 yds to the Kans 42 for a 1ST down - KU 0, BAY 14 2.90 5.6% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 58

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.14 - -1.75 = 2.90

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.75)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 7.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at KU 42) Jason Bean run for no gain to the Kans 42 - KU 0, BAY 14 -0.65 7.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.49 - 1.14 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.86)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.4%

Win Probability (After): 7.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2305 (2nd & 10 at KU 42) Sevion Morrison run for 2 yds to the Kans 44 - KU 0, BAY 14 -0.70 7.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 56

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.21 - 0.49 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.51)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.1%

Win Probability (After): 6.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2305 (3rd & 8 at KU 44) BEAN, Jason pass to the right incomplete intended for ARNOLD, Lawrence thrown to the BAY35. PENALTY BAY Pass Interference on MILTON, Mark enforced 15 yards to the BAY41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - KU 0, BAY 14 2.82 6.7% 1.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 41

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.62 - -0.21 = 2.82

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.21)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.7%

Win Probability (After): 8.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at BAY 41) Jason Bean pass complete to Sevion Morrison for 12 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST down - KU 0, BAY 14 0.90 8.3% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 29

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.52 - 2.62 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.38)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.3%

Win Probability (After): 8.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at BAY 29) Devin Neal run for 1 yd to the Bayl 28 - KU 0, BAY 14 -0.49 8.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 28

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.03 - 3.52 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.48)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.7%

Win Probability (After): 8.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2305 (2nd & 9 at BAY 28) Jason Bean run for 10 yds to the Bayl 18 for a 1ST down - KU 0, BAY 14 1.39 8.5% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 18

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.42 - 3.03 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.97)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.5%

Win Probability (After): 9.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at BAY 18) Jason Bean pass complete to Tanaka Scott for 3 yds to the Bayl 15 - KU 0, BAY 14 -0.18 9.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 15

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.24 - 4.42 = -0.18

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.58)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.3%

Win Probability (After): 9.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2305 (2nd & 7 at BAY 15) Jason Bean run for 4 yds to the Bayl 11 - KU 0, BAY 14 -0.01 9.2% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 11

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.22 - 4.24 = -0.01

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.76)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-9.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.2%

Win Probability (After): 8.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2305 (3rd & 3 at BAY 11) run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 13 fumbled, recovered by Kans Mason Fairchild - KU 0, BAY 14 -2.05 8.9% -1.2%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 13

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 4.22 = -2.05

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-9.78)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.9%

Win Probability (After): 7.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2305 (4th & 5 at BAY 13) KANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 18 - KU 0, BAY 14 -0.61 7.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 18

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 2.18 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.82)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.7%

Win Probability (After): 7.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:15 ESPN team id 2305 (4th & 10 at BAY 18) BAYLOR Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the Bayl 13 - KU 0, BAY 14 0.61 7.5% 0.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 13

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 1.56 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.44)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 0, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.5%

Win Probability (After): 7.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 3:13 ESPN team id 2305 (4th & 5 at BAY 13) Jacob Borcila 30 yd FG GOOD - KU 3, BAY 14 0.94 7.2% 3.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 65

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.06 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.94)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.2%

Win Probability (After): 10.7%

Away Score: 0 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 3:13 ESPN team id 239 (Kickoff at BAY 35) Tabor Allen kickoff for 38 yds - KU 3, BAY 14 0.00 92.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.13 - 2.13 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.13)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.7%

Win Probability (After): 92.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:13 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 27) Blake Shapen pass incomplete - KU 3, BAY 14 -0.70 92.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.68 - 2.37 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.37)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.8%

Win Probability (After): 92.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:13 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 10 at BAY 27) Richard Reese run for 11 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST down - KU 3, BAY 14 1.24 92.7% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 62

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.92 - 1.68 = 1.24

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.68)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.7%

Win Probability (After): 93.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:13 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 38) Blake Shapen pass complete to Drake Dabney for 14 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST down - KU 3, BAY 14 0.70 93.5% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 48

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.62 - 2.92 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.92)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.5%

Win Probability (After): 93.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:13 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at KU 48) Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the Kans 45 - KU 3, BAY 14 -0.40 93.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 45

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.21 - 3.62 = -0.40

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.62)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.21)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.9%

Win Probability (After): 93.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:13 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 7 at KU 45) BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Bayl 48 - KU 3, BAY 14 -0.87 93.9% -0.8%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 52

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.34 - 3.21 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.21)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.9%

Win Probability (After): 93.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:13 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 14 at BAY 48) Blake Shapen pass incomplete - KU 3, BAY 14 -1.03 93.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 52

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.30 - 2.34 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.34)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.0%

Win Probability (After): 92.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:13 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 14 at BAY 48) Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 17 yds to the Kans 35 for a 1ST down - KU 3, BAY 14 2.96 92.6% 2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 35

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.26 - 1.30 = 2.96

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.30)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.6%

Win Probability (After): 94.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:13 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at KU 35) Blake Shapen pass incomplete - KU 3, BAY 14 -0.61 94.9% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 35

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.65 - 4.26 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.26)

Score Difference (End): 11 (14.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.9%

Win Probability (After): 94.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 10 at KU 35) Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 10 yds to the Kans 25 for a 1ST down - KU 3, BAY 14 1.18 94.0% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 25

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.73 - 3.56 = 1.18

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.56)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.0%

Win Probability (After): 95.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at KU 25) Richard Reese run for 7 yds to the Kans 18 - KU 3, BAY 14 0.40 95.2% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 18

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.06 - 4.66 = 0.40

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.66)

Score Difference (End): 11 (16.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.2%

Win Probability (After): 95.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 3 at KU 18) Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Kans 16 - KU 3, BAY 14 -0.07 95.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 16

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.00 - 5.06 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.06)

Score Difference (End): 11 (16.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.8%

Win Probability (After): 95.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 1 at KU 16) Richard Reese run for no gain to the Kans 16 - KU 3, BAY 14 -0.88 95.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.12 - 5.00 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.00)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.6%

Win Probability (After): 95.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 1 at KU 16) Dillon Doyle run for 4 yds to the Kans 12 for a 1ST down - KU 3, BAY 14 1.22 95.2% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 12

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.34 - 4.12 = 1.22

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.12)

Score Difference (End): 11 (16.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at KU 12) Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the Kans 9 - KU 3, BAY 14 -0.32 96.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 9

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.02 - 5.34 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.34)

Score Difference (End): 11 (16.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.0%

Win Probability (After): 95.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 7 at KU 9) Kyron Drones run for 5 yds to the Kans 4 - KU 3, BAY 14 0.32 95.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 4

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.34 - 5.02 = 0.32

Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.02)

Score Difference (End): 11 (16.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.8%

Win Probability (After): 95.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:18 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 2 at KU 4) Kyron Drones run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - KU 3, BAY 21 1.62 94.5% 1.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.38 = 1.62

Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.38)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.5%

Win Probability (After): 95.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:18 ESPN team id 2305 (Kickoff at KU 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 39 yds - KU 3, BAY 21 0.00 4.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: KU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.26 - -0.26 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.26)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.7%

Win Probability (After): 4.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:18 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at KU 26) Sevion Morrison run for 1 yd to the Kans 27 - KU 3, BAY 21 -0.77 4.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 73

Started Drive at: KU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.72 - 0.05 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.95)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.6%

Win Probability (After): 4.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:18 ESPN team id 2305 (2nd & 9 at KU 27) Jason Bean pass incomplete - KU 3, BAY 21 -0.83 4.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: KU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.55 - -0.72 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.72)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-19.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.5%

Win Probability (After): 3.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:18 ESPN team id 2305 (3rd & 9 at KU 27) Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 5 yds to the Kans 32 - KU 3, BAY 21 -0.30 3.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 68

Started Drive at: KU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.84 - -1.55 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-19.55)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-19.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.9%

Win Probability (After): 3.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:46 ESPN team id 2305 (4th & 4 at KU 32) Reis Vernon punt for 49 yds , Gavin Holmes returns for 22 yds to the Bayl 41 - KU 3, BAY 21 -1.55 3.8% 0.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 59

Started Drive at: KU 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.14 - -1.59 = -1.55

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-19.59)

Score Difference (End): 18 (21.14)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.8%

Win Probability (After): 4.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:46 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 41) Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 42 - KU 3, BAY 21 -0.51 96.2% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 58

Started Drive at: BAY 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.45 - 2.96 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.96)

Score Difference (End): 18 (20.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.2%

Win Probability (After): 95.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:05 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 9 at BAY 42) Blake Shapen pass intercepted - KU 3, BAY 21 -4.47 95.7% -1.8%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 45

Started Drive at: BAY 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.30 - 2.17 = -4.47

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.17)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-15.70)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.7%

Win Probability (After): 93.9%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:05 ESPN team id 2305 (4th & 7 at BAY 42) punt for 41 yds, downed at the Bayl 1 - KU 3, BAY 21 0.05 4.7% 0.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.59 - -0.64 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.64)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.59)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.7%

Win Probability (After): 5.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 8:05 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 1) Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the Bayl 2 - KU 3, BAY 21 -0.53 94.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 99 -> 98

Started Drive at: BAY 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.03 - 0.56 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): 18 (18.56)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.8%

Win Probability (After): 94.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:05 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 9 at BAY 2) Qualan Jones run for 1 yd to the Bayl 3 - KU 3, BAY 21 -0.79 94.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 97

Started Drive at: BAY 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.75 - 0.03 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): 18 (18.03)

Score Difference (End): 18 (17.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.7%

Win Probability (After): 94.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:05 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 8 at BAY 3) Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 16 yds to the Bayl 19 for a 1ST down - KU 3, BAY 21 2.46 94.4% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 97 -> 81

Started Drive at: BAY 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.71 - -0.75 = 2.46

Score Difference (Before): 18 (17.25)

Score Difference (End): 18 (19.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.4%

Win Probability (After): 95.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:05 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 19) Blake Shapen run for 6 yds to the Bayl 25 - KU 3, BAY 21 0.02 95.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 75

Started Drive at: BAY 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.73 - 1.71 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): 18 (19.71)

Score Difference (End): 18 (19.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.5%

Win Probability (After): 95.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:05 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 4 at BAY 25) Qualan Jones run for 12 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST down - KU 3, BAY 21 0.72 95.4% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 63

Started Drive at: BAY 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.45 - 1.73 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): 18 (19.73)

Score Difference (End): 18 (20.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.4%

Win Probability (After): 95.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:05 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 37) Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the Bayl 40 - KU 3, BAY 21 -0.44 95.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 60

Started Drive at: BAY 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.02 - 2.45 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.45)

Score Difference (End): 18 (20.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.7%

Win Probability (After): 95.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:05 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 7 at BAY 40) Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the Bayl 43 - KU 3, BAY 21 -0.34 95.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 57

Started Drive at: BAY 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.68 - 2.02 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.02)

Score Difference (End): 18 (19.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 42 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.7%

Win Probability (After): 95.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:05 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 4 at BAY 43) Richard Reese run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - KU 3, BAY 21 1.38 95.4% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 50

Started Drive at: BAY 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.06 - 1.68 = 1.38

Score Difference (Before): 18 (19.68)

Score Difference (End): 18 (21.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.4%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:05 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at 50) Blake Shapen pass incomplete - KU 3, BAY 21 -0.52 96.7% -0.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: BAY 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.55 - 3.06 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 18 (21.06)

Score Difference (End): 18 (20.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 95.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:05 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 10 at 50) Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Kans 49 - KU 3, BAY 21 -0.77 95.8% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 49

Started Drive at: BAY 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.77 - 2.55 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.55)

Score Difference (End): 18 (19.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.8%

Win Probability (After): 95.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:04 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 9 at KU 49) Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 3 yds to the Kans 46 - KU 3, BAY 21 -0.57 96.2% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 46

Started Drive at: BAY 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.51 - 1.08 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): 18 (19.08)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.2%

Win Probability (After): 94.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:04 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 6 at KU 46) Timeout BAYLOR, clock 02:04 - KU 3, BAY 21 0.00 95.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 46

Started Drive at: BAY 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.51 - 0.51 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 18 (18.51)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 53 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.8%

Win Probability (After): 95.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:04 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 6 at KU 46) Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 12 yds to the Kans 34 for a 1ST down - KU 3, BAY 21 2.31 95.7% 1.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 34

Started Drive at: BAY 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.70 - 0.39 = 2.31

Score Difference (Before): 18 (18.39)

Score Difference (End): 18 (20.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:04 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at KU 34) Richard Reese run for 14 yds to the Kans 20 for a 1ST down - KU 3, BAY 21 0.71 96.7% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 20

Started Drive at: BAY 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - 2.70 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.70)

Score Difference (End): 18 (21.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 97.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:04 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at KU 20) Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 10 yds to the Kans 10 for a 1ST down - KU 3, BAY 21 1.14 97.0% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 10

Started Drive at: BAY 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.55 - 3.41 = 1.14

Score Difference (Before): 18 (21.41)

Score Difference (End): 18 (22.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 89 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.0%

Win Probability (After): 97.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:42 ESPN team id 239 (1st & Goal at KU 10) Jordan Nabors run for 10 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - KU 3, BAY 28 2.72 97.3% 2.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.28 = 2.72

Score Difference (Before): 18 (22.28)

Score Difference (End): 25 (25.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 99 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.3%

Win Probability (After): 99.3%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:39 ESPN team id 2305 (Kickoff at KU 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 45 yds , Trevor Wilson return for 2 yds to the Kans 37 KANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Kans 10 - KU 3, BAY 28 -0.31 4.5% -0.4%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 90

Started Drive at: KU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.15 - 0.16 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): -25 (-32.21)

Score Difference (End): -25 (-25.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.5%

Win Probability (After): 4.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:26 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at KU 12) Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 20 yds Quentin Skinner fumbled, recovered by Bayl Devin Lemear - KU 3, BAY 28 -4.04 4.1% -3.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 14

Started Drive at: KU 12

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.99 - 0.05 = -4.04

Score Difference (Before): -25 (-24.95)

Score Difference (End): 25 (28.99)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.1%

Win Probability (After): 0.2%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:18 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at KU 14) Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the Kans 13 - KU 3, BAY 28 -0.22 99.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 13

Started Drive at: KU 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 3.66 = -0.22

Score Difference (Before): 25 (28.66)

Score Difference (End): 25 (28.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:18 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 9 at KU 13) Timeout BAYLOR, clock 00:18 - KU 3, BAY 28 0.00 99.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 13

Started Drive at: KU 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.45 - 3.45 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 25 (28.45)

Score Difference (End): 25 (28.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:18 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 9 at KU 13) Blake Shapen pass incomplete - KU 3, BAY 28 -0.38 99.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 13

Started Drive at: KU 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.39 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): 25 (28.39)

Score Difference (End): 25 (28.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:05 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 9 at BAY 42) Blake Shapen pass intercepted - KU 3, BAY 21 -1.08 99.5% -5.5%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 45

Started Drive at: BAY 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.82 - 0.26 = -1.08

Score Difference (Before): 25 (25.26)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.18)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 94.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:05 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at BAY 45) Jason Bean pass incomplete - KU 3, BAY 21 0.00 5.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45

Started Drive at: BAY 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.55 - 0.55 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.45)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.8%

Win Probability (After): 5.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:05 ESPN team id 2305 (2nd & 10 at BAY 45) Devin Neal run for 3 yds to the Bayl 42 - KU 3, BAY 21 0.04 5.8% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 42

Started Drive at: BAY 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.59 - 0.55 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.45)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.8%

Win Probability (After): 5.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:05 ESPN team id 2305 (3rd & 7 at BAY 42) Jason Bean pass incomplete - KU 3, BAY 21 -0.27 5.6% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 42

Started Drive at: BAY 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.31 - 0.59 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.41)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 5.0%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:02 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 9 at KU 13) Blake Shapen pass intercepted - KU 3, BAY 21 -2.10 96.2% -0.6%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 83

Started Drive at: KU 14

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 2.11 = -2.10

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.11)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.01)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 3, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.2%

Win Probability (After): 95.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at KU 17) Kneel down by KAN at KAN15 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00. - KU 3, BAY 28 0.04 4.3% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 85

Started Drive at: KU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - -0.04 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.04)

Score Difference (End): -25 (-25.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.3%

Win Probability (After): 3.1%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 21 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 239 (Kickoff at BAY 35) Tabor Allen kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - KU 3, BAY 28 0.00 99.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 3.47 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 25 (28.47)

Score Difference (End): 25 (28.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:18 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 6 at BAY 29) Timeout BAYLOR, clock 14:18 - KU 3, BAY 28 0.00 99.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.47 - 3.47 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 25 (28.47)

Score Difference (End): 25 (28.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:18 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 25) Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29 - KU 3, BAY 28 -0.10 99.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - 3.50 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): 25 (28.50)

Score Difference (End): 25 (28.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:18 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 6 at BAY 29) Jordan Nabors run for 3 yds to the Bayl 32 - KU 3, BAY 28 -0.41 99.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 68

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 3.41 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): 25 (28.41)

Score Difference (End): 25 (28.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:18 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 3 at BAY 32) Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 7 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST down - KU 3, BAY 28 1.11 99.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 61

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.11 - 3.00 = 1.11

Score Difference (Before): 25 (28.00)

Score Difference (End): 25 (29.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:18 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 39) Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 5 yds to the Bayl 44 - KU 3, BAY 28 -0.10 99.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 56

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.01 - 4.11 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): 25 (29.11)

Score Difference (End): 25 (29.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:18 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 5 at BAY 44) Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the Bayl 47 - KU 3, BAY 28 -0.37 99.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 53

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.64 - 4.01 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): 25 (29.01)

Score Difference (End): 25 (28.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:18 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 2 at BAY 47) Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 48 - KU 3, BAY 28 -1.17 99.7% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 52

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.47 - 3.64 = -1.17

Score Difference (Before): 25 (28.64)

Score Difference (End): 25 (27.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:18 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 1 at BAY 48) Dillon Doyle run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - KU 3, BAY 28 2.03 99.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 50

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.50 - 2.47 = 2.03

Score Difference (Before): 25 (27.47)

Score Difference (End): 25 (29.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.7%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 14:18 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at 50) Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 9 yds to the Kans 41 - KU 3, BAY 28 0.58 99.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 41

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.08 - 4.50 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): 25 (29.50)

Score Difference (End): 25 (30.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.7%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:18 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 1 at KU 41) Blake Shapen run for 6 yds to the Kans 35 for a 1ST down - KU 3, BAY 28 -0.06 99.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 35

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.02 - 5.08 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): 25 (30.08)

Score Difference (End): 25 (30.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:18 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at KU 35) Qualan Jones run for 8 yds to the Kans 27 - KU 3, BAY 28 0.36 99.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 27

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.39 - 5.02 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): 25 (30.02)

Score Difference (End): 25 (30.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 48 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.8%

Win Probability (After): 99.8%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:42 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 2 at KU 27) Blake Shapen sacked for a loss of 15 yards to the Bayl 9 - KU 3, BAY 28 -9.71 99.9% -2.4%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 9

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -4.41 - 5.29 = -9.71

Score Difference (Before): 25 (30.29)

Score Difference (End): -25 (-20.59)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.9%

Win Probability (After): 97.5%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 8:42 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & Goal at BAY 9) Devin Neal run for 6 yds to the Bayl 3 - KU 3, BAY 28 0.52 1.3% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 3

Started Drive at: BAY 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.52 - 5.00 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): -25 (-20.00)

Score Difference (End): -25 (-19.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.6%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 8:42 ESPN team id 2305 (2nd & Goal at BAY 3) Jason Bean run for 1 yd to the Bayl 2 - KU 3, BAY 28 -0.39 1.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 2

Started Drive at: BAY 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.13 - 5.52 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): -25 (-19.48)

Score Difference (End): -25 (-19.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 3, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.6%

Win Probability (After): 1.4%

Away Score: 3 (3) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 7:35 ESPN team id 2305 (3rd & Goal at BAY 2) Devin Neal run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK) - KU 10, BAY 28 1.89 1.1% 1.2%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 9

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.11 = 1.89

Score Difference (Before): -25 (-19.89)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.1%

Win Probability (After): 2.3%

Away Score: 3 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 7:35 ESPN team id 239 (Kickoff at BAY 35) Tabor Allen kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - KU 10, BAY 28 0.00 98.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 2.57 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.57)

Score Difference (End): 18 (20.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:35 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 25) Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the Bayl 30 - KU 10, BAY 28 0.00 98.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.57 - 2.57 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.57)

Score Difference (End): 18 (20.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:35 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 5 at BAY 30) Richard Reese run for 9 yds to the Bayl 39 for a 1ST down - KU 10, BAY 28 0.66 98.2% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 61

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.23 - 2.57 = 0.66

Score Difference (Before): 18 (20.57)

Score Difference (End): 18 (21.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.2%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:35 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 39) Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 6 yds to the Bayl 45 - KU 10, BAY 28 0.16 98.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 55

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.39 - 3.23 = 0.16

Score Difference (Before): 18 (21.23)

Score Difference (End): 18 (21.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.4%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:35 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 4 at BAY 45) Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - KU 10, BAY 28 0.39 98.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 50

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.78 - 3.39 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): 18 (21.39)

Score Difference (End): 18 (21.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.4%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:35 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at 50) Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 2 yds to the Kans 48 - KU 10, BAY 28 -0.48 98.4% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 48

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.30 - 3.78 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): 18 (21.78)

Score Difference (End): 18 (21.30)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.4%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:35 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 8 at KU 48) Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 49 - KU 10, BAY 28 -1.59 98.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 51

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.71 - 3.30 = -1.59

Score Difference (Before): 18 (21.30)

Score Difference (End): 18 (19.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.4%

Win Probability (After): 98.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:35 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 11 at BAY 49) Blake Shapen pass incomplete - KU 10, BAY 28 -1.43 98.2% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 51

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.28 - 1.71 = -1.43

Score Difference (Before): 18 (19.71)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.2%

Win Probability (After): 97.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:40 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 11 at BAY 49) Issac Power punt for 46 yds, downed at the Kans 5 - KU 10, BAY 28 1.28 98.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 95

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - 0.36 = 1.28

Score Difference (Before): 18 (18.36)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-19.64)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.1%

Win Probability (After): 98.1%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:40 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at KU 5) Jason Bean pass complete to Devin Neal for a loss of 2 yards to the Kans 3 - KU 10, BAY 28 -1.27 1.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 95 -> 97

Started Drive at: KU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.89 - -1.62 = -1.27

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-19.62)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-20.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:40 ESPN team id 2305 (2nd & 12 at KU 3) KANSAS Penalty, False Start (Michael Ford Jr.) to the Kans 2 - KU 10, BAY 28 -0.06 1.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 97 -> 98

Started Drive at: KU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.95 - -2.89 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-20.89)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-20.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:40 ESPN team id 2305 (2nd & 13 at KU 2) Jason Bean pass complete to Mason Fairchild for 4 yds to the Kans 6 - KU 10, BAY 28 -0.06 1.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 98 -> 94

Started Drive at: KU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.01 - -2.95 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-20.95)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-21.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.2%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:40 ESPN team id 2305 (3rd & 9 at KU 6) Jason Bean pass complete to Jared Casey for 20 yds to the Kans 26 for a 1ST down - KU 10, BAY 28 2.85 1.2% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 74

Started Drive at: KU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.15 - -3.01 = 2.85

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-21.01)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.2%

Win Probability (After): 2.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:40 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at KU 26) Devin Neal run for 2 yds to the Kans 28 - KU 10, BAY 28 -0.82 2.0% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 72

Started Drive at: KU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.98 - -0.15 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.15)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.6%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:40 ESPN team id 2305 (2nd & 8 at KU 28) Jason Bean run for 6 yds to the Kans 34 - KU 10, BAY 28 0.73 1.6% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 66

Started Drive at: KU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.25 - -0.98 = 0.73

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.98)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.6%

Win Probability (After): 2.0%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:40 ESPN team id 2305 (3rd & 2 at KU 34) Jason Bean pass complete to Quentin Skinner for 22 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST down - KU 10, BAY 28 2.45 2.0% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 44

Started Drive at: KU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.20 - -0.25 = 2.45

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.25)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-15.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.0%

Win Probability (After): 2.4%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:40 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at BAY 44) Jason Bean pass incomplete - KU 10, BAY 28 -0.70 2.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: KU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.50 - 2.20 = -0.70

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-15.80)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-16.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.4%

Win Probability (After): 2.3%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:40 ESPN team id 2305 (2nd & 10 at BAY 44) Jason Bean sacked by Al Walcott for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 47 - KU 10, BAY 28 -2.04 2.3% -0.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 47

Started Drive at: KU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.54 - 1.50 = -2.04

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-16.50)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.3%

Win Probability (After): 1.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2305 (3rd & 13 at BAY 47) Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 16 yds to the Bayl 31 for a 1ST down - KU 10, BAY 28 3.80 0.8% 2.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 31

Started Drive at: KU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.34 - -0.46 = 3.80

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.46)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-14.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 2.9%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at BAY 31) Devin Neal run for 7 yds to the Bayl 24 - KU 10, BAY 28 0.46 1.7% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 24

Started Drive at: KU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.78 - 3.32 = 0.46

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.68)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-14.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 10, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.7%

Win Probability (After): 1.8%

Away Score: 10 (10) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:33 ESPN team id 2305 (2nd & 3 at BAY 24) Quentin Skinner 24 Yd pass from Jason Bean (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) - KU 16, BAY 28 2.23 1.7% 4.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 99

Started Drive at: KU 5

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 3.77 = 2.23

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-14.23)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 96 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.7%

Win Probability (After): 6.0%

Away Score: 10 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:33 ESPN team id 239 (Kickoff at BAY 35) Tabor Allen kickoff for 45 yds - KU 16, BAY 28 0.00 96.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 2.07 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.07)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.1%

Win Probability (After): 96.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:33 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 25) Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the Bayl 30 - KU 16, BAY 28 0.11 96.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.18 - 2.07 = 0.11

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.07)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.1%

Win Probability (After): 96.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:33 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 5 at BAY 30) Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 32 - KU 16, BAY 28 -0.62 96.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 68

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.56 - 2.18 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.18)

Score Difference (End): 12 (13.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.0%

Win Probability (After): 95.9%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:33 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 3 at BAY 32) Blake Shapen pass complete to Richard Reese for 12 yds to the Bayl 44 for a 1ST down - KU 16, BAY 28 1.58 95.9% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 56

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.14 - 1.56 = 1.58

Score Difference (Before): 12 (13.56)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.9%

Win Probability (After): 96.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:33 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 44) Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 13 yds to the Kans 43 for a 1ST down - KU 16, BAY 28 0.56 96.4% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 43

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.69 - 3.14 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.14)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.4%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:33 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at KU 43) Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Kans 41 - KU 16, BAY 28 -0.44 96.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 41

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.25 - 3.69 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.69)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:33 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 8 at KU 41) Qualan Jones run for 25 yds to the Kans 16 for a 1ST down - KU 16, BAY 28 1.98 96.4% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 16

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.23 - 3.25 = 1.98

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.25)

Score Difference (End): 12 (17.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.4%

Win Probability (After): 97.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:33 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at KU 16) Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Kans 14 - KU 16, BAY 28 -0.54 97.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 14

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.69 - 5.23 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 12 (17.23)

Score Difference (End): 12 (16.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.8%

Win Probability (After): 97.5%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:33 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 8 at KU 14) Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the Kans 11 - KU 16, BAY 28 -0.36 97.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 11

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.32 - 4.69 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 12 (16.69)

Score Difference (End): 12 (16.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.5%

Win Probability (After): 97.4%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:29 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 1 at KU 7) Timeout BAYLOR, clock 09:29 - KU 16, BAY 28 0.00 98.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 7

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.32 - 4.32 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 12 (16.32)

Score Difference (End): 12 (16.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.9%

Win Probability (After): 98.9%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:29 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 5 at KU 11) Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the Kans 7 - KU 16, BAY 28 -0.15 98.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 7

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.05 - 4.20 = -0.15

Score Difference (Before): 12 (16.20)

Score Difference (End): 12 (16.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.9%

Win Probability (After): 98.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:25 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 1 at KU 7) Blake Shapen run for no gain to the Kans 7 - KU 16, BAY 28 -3.42 98.8% -3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 93

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 4.05 = -3.42

Score Difference (Before): 12 (16.05)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.63)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.8%

Win Probability (After): 95.8%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:25 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at KU 7) Devin Neal run for 2 yds to the Kans 9 - KU 16, BAY 28 -0.38 3.9% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 91

Started Drive at: KU 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.03 - -0.65 = -0.38

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.65)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-13.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.9%

Win Probability (After): 3.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 9:25 ESPN team id 2305 (2nd & 8 at KU 9) Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 29 yds to the Kans 38 for a 1ST down - KU 16, BAY 28 2.70 3.7% 2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 91 -> 62

Started Drive at: KU 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.68 - -1.03 = 2.70

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-13.03)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-10.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.7%

Win Probability (After): 6.0%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 9:25 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at KU 38) Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 8 yds to the Kans 46 - KU 16, BAY 28 0.70 6.0% 1.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 54

Started Drive at: KU 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.37 - 1.68 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-10.32)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-9.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.0%

Win Probability (After): 7.1%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 9:25 ESPN team id 2305 (2nd & 2 at KU 46) Devin Neal run for 5 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST down - KU 16, BAY 28 0.31 7.1% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 49

Started Drive at: KU 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.68 - 2.37 = 0.31

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-9.63)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-9.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.1%

Win Probability (After): 7.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 9:25 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at BAY 49) Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 47 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST down - KU 16, BAY 28 2.81 7.7% 3.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 2

Started Drive at: KU 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.49 - 2.68 = 2.81

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-9.32)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-6.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 91 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.7%

Win Probability (After): 11.6%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 9:25 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & Goal at BAY 2) KANSAS Penalty, False Start (Quentin Skinner) to the Bayl 7 - KU 16, BAY 28 -0.66 12.9% -1.2%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 7

Started Drive at: KU 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.50 - 6.16 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-5.84)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-6.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 91 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.9%

Win Probability (After): 11.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 9:25 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & Goal at BAY 7) Jason Bean run for 3 yds to the Bayl 4 - KU 16, BAY 28 -0.06 11.7% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 4

Started Drive at: KU 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.43 - 5.50 = -0.06

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-6.50)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-6.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 94 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.7%

Win Probability (After): 10.9%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 9:25 ESPN team id 2305 (2nd & Goal at BAY 4) Jason Bean pass incomplete - KU 16, BAY 28 -0.91 10.9% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: KU 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.53 - 5.43 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-6.57)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-7.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 16, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 94 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.9%

Win Probability (After): 9.7%

Away Score: 16 (16) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 6:29 ESPN team id 2305 (3rd & Goal at BAY 4) Jason Bean run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK) - KU 23, BAY 28 2.47 7.8% 11.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: KU 7

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.53 = 2.47

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-7.47)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 98 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.8%

Win Probability (After): 19.7%

Away Score: 16 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 6:29 ESPN team id 239 (Kickoff at BAY 35) Tabor Allen kickoff for 34 yds - KU 23, BAY 28 0.00 83.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: BAY 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.11 - 1.11 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.11)

Score Difference (End): 5 (6.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.9%

Win Probability (After): 83.9%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:29 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 31) Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 33 - KU 23, BAY 28 -0.60 84.0% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 67

Started Drive at: BAY 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.96 - 1.56 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.56)

Score Difference (End): 5 (5.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.0%

Win Probability (After): 84.1%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:29 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 8 at BAY 33) Blake Shapen pass complete to Richard Reese for 14 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST down - KU 23, BAY 28 1.42 84.1% 3.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 53

Started Drive at: BAY 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.38 - 0.96 = 1.42

Score Difference (Before): 5 (5.96)

Score Difference (End): 5 (7.38)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.1%

Win Probability (After): 87.4%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:29 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 47) Qualan Jones run for 7 yds to the Kans 46 - KU 23, BAY 28 0.44 87.4% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 46

Started Drive at: BAY 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.81 - 2.38 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): 5 (7.38)

Score Difference (End): 5 (7.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.4%

Win Probability (After): 88.8%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:29 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 3 at KU 46) Qualan Jones run for 1 yd to the Kans 45 - KU 23, BAY 28 -0.74 88.8% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 45

Started Drive at: BAY 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 2.81 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): 5 (7.81)

Score Difference (End): 5 (7.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.8%

Win Probability (After): 86.7%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:29 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 2 at KU 45) Richard Reese run for 37 yds to the Kans 8 - KU 23, BAY 28 0.60 86.7% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 8

Started Drive at: BAY 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.67 - 2.07 = 0.60

Score Difference (Before): 5 (7.07)

Score Difference (End): 5 (7.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.7%

Win Probability (After): 87.9%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:29 ESPN team id 239 (1st & Goal at KU 8) Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the Kans 2 - KU 23, BAY 28 0.52 93.0% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 2

Started Drive at: BAY 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.73 - 5.21 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): 5 (10.21)

Score Difference (End): 5 (10.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 67 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.0%

Win Probability (After): 93.6%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:37 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & Goal at KU 2) Richard Reese run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - KU 23, BAY 35 1.43 97.1% 0.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.57 = 1.43

Score Difference (Before): 5 (10.57)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 35

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.1%

Win Probability (After): 98.0%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 28 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:37 ESPN team id 2305 (Kickoff at KU 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - KU 23, BAY 35 0.00 1.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.03 - 1.03 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-10.97)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-10.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 35

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.8%

Win Probability (After): 1.8%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:37 ESPN team id 2305 (1st & 10 at KU 25) Jason Bean pass incomplete - KU 23, BAY 35 -0.50 1.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - 1.03 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-10.97)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-11.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 35

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.8%

Win Probability (After): 1.8%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:37 ESPN team id 2305 (2nd & 10 at KU 25) Jason Bean pass incomplete - KU 23, BAY 35 -0.62 1.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.09 - 0.52 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.48)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 35

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.8%

Win Probability (After): 1.4%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:18 ESPN team id 2305 (3rd & 20 at KU 15) Timeout KANSAS, clock 02:18 - KU 23, BAY 35 0.00 1.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 85

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.09 - -0.09 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.09)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 35

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.0%

Win Probability (After): 1.0%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:18 ESPN team id 2305 (3rd & 10 at KU 25) BEAN, Jason pass to the right complete for 7 yards to FAIRCHILD, Mason caught at the KAN32 and advanced to the KAN32 (WALCOTT, Al). PENALTY KAN Holding on ADAMS-REED, Armaj enforced 10 yards from the KAN25 to the KAN15 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). - KU 23, BAY 35 -0.62 1.3% -0.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 85

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.51 - 0.11 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.89)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 35

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 1.3%

Win Probability (After): 0.9%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:11 ESPN team id 2305 (4th & 11 at KU 24) Timeout KANSAS, clock 02:11 - KU 23, BAY 35 0.00 0.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.51 - -0.51 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.51)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 35

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 2:11 ESPN team id 2305 (3rd & 20 at KU 15) Jason Bean pass complete to Kevin Terry for 9 yds to the Kans 24 - KU 23, BAY 35 -0.25 0.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 76

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.73 - -0.48 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.48)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 35

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.9%

Win Probability (After): 0.8%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 2:02 ESPN team id 2305 (4th & 11 at KU 24) Jason Bean pass incomplete - KU 23, BAY 35 -2.67 0.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 24

Started Drive at: KU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.43 - -0.76 = -2.67

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.76)

Score Difference (End): 12 (15.43)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: KU 23, BAY 35

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 0.8%

Win Probability (After): 0.5%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:18 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 13 at KU 27) Timeout BAYLOR, clock 01:18 - KU 23, BAY 35 0.00 99.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 27

Started Drive at: KU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.91 - 1.91 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 12 (13.91)

Score Difference (End): 12 (13.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 35

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:18 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at KU 24) Kneel down by BAY at KAN27 (team loss of 3). - KU 23, BAY 35 -1.32 99.5% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 27

Started Drive at: KU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.91 - 3.23 = -1.32

Score Difference (Before): 12 (15.23)

Score Difference (End): 12 (13.91)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 35

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.5%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:18 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 13 at KU 27) Kneel down by BAY at KAN29 (team loss of 2). - KU 23, BAY 35 -0.46 99.5% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 29

Started Drive at: KU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - 1.91 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 12 (13.91)

Score Difference (End): 12 (13.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 35

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.5%

Win Probability (After): 99.4%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 15 at KU 29) Kneel down by BAY at KAN31 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00. - KU 23, BAY 35 -0.13 98.8% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 31

Started Drive at: KU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.87 - 1.00 = -0.13

Score Difference (Before): 12 (13.00)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: KU 23, BAY 35

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.8%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 23 (23) Home Score: 35 (35)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3