TCU 29 @ Baylor 28

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 6.92 | Odds: TCU -2, O/U 58.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Concept from Robert Binion (@robert_binion). Cell colors reflect the percentile of a team's performance against all single-game FBS vs FBS performances in that stat in 2022.
Overall ESPN team id 2628 ESPN team id 239
EPA/Play 0.24 85th %ile0.20 79th %ile
Success Rate 49% 85th %ile53% 92nd %ile
Yards/Play 7.00 80th %ile6.59 71st %ile
EPA/Dropback 0.27 75th %ile0.41 86th %ile
EPA/Rush 0.19 79th %ile0.06 58th %ile
Yards/Dropback 9.08 88th %ile8.68 85th %ile
Explosive Play Rate 5% 16th %ile9% 58th %ile
3rd Down Success Rate 45% 60th %ile44% 58th %ile
Red Zone Success Rate 64% 86th %ile60% 84th %ile
Def Run Stuff Rate 20% 10th %ile15% 2nd %ile
Havoc Rate 5% 13th %ile12% 64th %ile
Expected Points ESPN team id 2628 ESPN team id 239
Total Plays 7486
Total EPA 12.266.72
  Offensive EPA 14.8415.31
  Special Teams EPA -3.15-6.97
  Penalty EPA -1.29-0.85
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 1.86-0.77
Production ESPN team id 2628 ESPN team id 239
Scrimmage Plays 6376
  Yards 441501
  Yards/Play 7.006.59
  EPA 14.8415.31
  EPA/Play 0.240.20
Passes 36 (57%)31 (41%)
  Yards 327269
  Yards/Play 9.088.68
  EPA 9.7312.74
  EPA/Play 0.270.41
Rushes 27 (43%)45 (59%)
  Yards 114242
  Yards/Play 4.225.38
  EPA 5.112.57
  EPA/Play 0.190.06
Rushing ESPN team id 2628 ESPN team id 239
Scrimmage Plays 6376
Rushes 27 (43%)45 (59%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 3 (11%)3 (7%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 3 (100%)1 (33%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 4 (15%)9 (20%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 13 (48%)15 (33%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 10 (37%)25 (56%)
OL Line Yards 54.682.7
  Per Carry 2.021.84
Highlight Yards 26.576.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 2.653.06
Explosiveness ESPN team id 2628 ESPN team id 239
Total Plays 7486
Scrimmage Plays 6376
Explosive Plays 3 (5%)7 (9%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 2 (6%)4 (13%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 1 (4%)3 (7%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays 3.45-8.12
  EPA/Play 0.06-0.12
  When Passing 0.52-3.92
    EPA/Play 0.01-0.13
  When Rushing 2.93-4.20
    EPA/Play 0.11-0.10
Situational ESPN team id 2628 ESPN team id 239
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 31 (49%)40 (53%)
  When Passing 19 (53%)16 (52%)
  When Rushing 12 (44%)24 (53%)
  On Standard Downs 25 (56%)34 (61%)
  On Passing Downs 6 (33%)6 (30%)
  On Early Downs 27 (51%)31 (53%)
  On Late Downs 4 (40%)9 (53%)
  During "Middle 8" 5 (36%)8 (53%)
Early Downs 5359
  First Downs Created 14 (26%)16 (27%)
  EPA 16.381.42
  EPA/Play 0.310.02
  Passes 30 (57%)22 (37%)
  Rushes 23 (43%)37 (63%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 18 (60%)10 (45%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 9 (39%)21 (57%)
"Middle 8" Plays 1415
  EPA -2.77-3.67
  EPA/play -0.20-0.24
  Passes 8 (57%)12 (80%)
  Rushes 6 (43%)3 (20%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 3 (38%)7 (58%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 2 (33%)1 (33%)
Drives ESPN team id 2628 ESPN team id 239
Total 1211
Avg Starting Field Position Own 25Own 21
Plays/Drive 6.758.70
Yards/Drive 46.8456.87
Available Yards % 62%72%
Defensive ESPN team id 2628 ESPN team id 239
Scrimmage Plays 7663
Stop Rate 30%38%
Havoc Plays Created 9 (12%)3 (5%)
  Passing 3 (10%)2 (6%)
  Rushing 6 (13%)1 (4%)
TFLs Generated 82
  Passing 21
  Rushing 61
Sacks Generated 1 (3%)0 (0%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 11
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 2628 ESPN team id 239
Turnovers 12
  Fumbles 01
  Fumbles Lost 01
  Fumbles Recovered 00
  Interceptions 11
Turnover Margin 1-1
Expected Turnovers 0.20.7
Expected Turnover Margin 0.5-0.5
Turnover Luck (pts) 2.5-2.5
Special Teams ESPN team id 2628 ESPN team id 239
Total Plays 11 10
Total EPA -3.15 -6.97
  Field Goal EPA 0.63 -2.03
  Punting EPA -1.92 -0.37
  Kickoff Return EPA -1.86 -4.57
Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Max Duggan 24/35, 327 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 0 Scks, 70.8 xQBR, 1.64 DETMER 9.34 0.29 9.99 54% 59.0%
TEAM 0/1, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 40.9 xQBR, 0.00 DETMER 0.00 -0.25 -0.25 0% 4.0%
Rush attempts
Max Duggan 8 carries, 50 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.25 0.53 4.27 50% 25.0%
Kendre Miller 10 carries, 41 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.10 0.09 0.93 50% 4.0%
TEAM 1 carry, -2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -2.00 -0.02 -0.02 0% 0.0%
Emari Demercado 8 carries, 25 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.12 -0.01 -0.07 38% 14.0%
Pass targets
Taye Barber 5 catches (6 targets), 108 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 21.60 0.92 5.52 67% 30.0%
Gunnar Henderson 3 catches (3 targets), 52 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 17.33 1.10 3.30 100% 16.0%
Savion Williams 4 catches (5 targets), 54 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.50 0.62 3.11 80% 24.0%
Jared Wiley 1 catch (1 target), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.00 2.21 2.21 100% 8.0%
Trent Battle 2 catches (2 targets), 20 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 0.78 1.56 100% 4.0%
Quentin Johnston 4 catches (6 targets), 48 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 12.00 0.24 1.43 33% 4.0%
Kendre Miller 2 catches (2 targets), 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.19 0.38 50% 3.0%
Emari Demercado 2 catches (3 targets), 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 -0.09 -0.26 33% -8.0%
Blair Conwright 1 catch (3 targets), 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 -0.37 -1.10 33% -2.0%
Geor'Quarius Spivey 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.27 -1.27 0% -3.0%

Baylor [show/hide]

ESPN team id 239
Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Blake Shapen 21/30, 269 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 Sck, 100.2 xQBR, 1.35 DETMER 8.68 0.41 12.74 52% 35.0%
Rush attempts
Qualan Jones 5 carries, 30 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.78 3.88 60% 3.0%
Dillon Doyle 1 carry, 2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 1.07 1.07 100% 2.0%
Richard Reese 10 carries, 56 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.60 0.07 0.72 60% 0.0%
Kelsey Johnson 1 carry, 2 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.00 0.71 0.71 100% 6.0%
Craig Williams 19 carries, 112 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 5.89 -0.04 -0.84 58% -7.0%
Monaray Baldwin 3 carries, 10 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.33 -0.46 -1.38 0% -3.0%
Blake Shapen 6 carries, 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.00 -0.26 -1.59 33% -10.0%
Pass targets
Monaray Baldwin 6 catches (9 targets), 123 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 20.50 0.92 8.27 67% 27.0%
Josh Cameron 3 catches (3 targets), 68 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 22.67 2.24 6.72 100% 18.0%
Kelsey Johnson 3 catches (5 targets), 30 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.00 0.72 3.60 60% 20.0%
Dillon Doyle 1 catch (1 target), 3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 3.00 2.52 2.52 100% 9.0%
Cameron Bonner 1 catch (1 target), 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 13.00 1.13 1.13 100% 5.0%
Hal Presley 1 catch (2 targets), 15 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.00 0.39 0.78 50% 2.0%
Qualan Jones 1 catch (2 targets), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.08 -0.17 0% -1.0%
Ben Sims 1 catch (1 target), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.65 -0.65 0% -4.0%
Richard Reese 1 catch (1 target), 4 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.00 -0.91 -0.91 0% -4.0%
Craig Williams 3 catches (3 targets), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.67 -0.65 -1.94 33% -12.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 10:29 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 11 at BAY 15) Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 74 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST down - TCU 20, BAY 21 6.00 46.1% 23.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 11

Started Drive at: BAY 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.99 - -1.01 = 6.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (-0.01)

Score Difference (End): 1 (5.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.1%

Win Probability (After): 69.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:48 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 10) Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 77 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST down - TCU 7, BAY 14 5.33 37.7% 12.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 13

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.81 - -0.52 = 5.33

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.52)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.7%

Win Probability (After): 50.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 12 at BAY 23) Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 42 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST down - TCU 7, BAY 7 4.91 38.2% 14.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 35

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.83 - -1.08 = 4.91

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.2%

Win Probability (After): 52.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:05 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 1 at TCU 36) Craig Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 39 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -4.52 51.0% -12.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 61

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.18 - 2.34 = -4.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.18)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.0%

Win Probability (After): 38.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:13 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 10 at TCU 28) Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 39 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST down - TCU 0, BAY 7 3.88 38.8% 8.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 33

Started Drive at: TCU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - -0.46 = 3.88

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.46)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.8%

Win Probability (After): 46.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:04 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at TCU 11) Blake Shapen pass intercepted, touchback. Bud Clark return for no gain - TCU 14, BAY 14 -3.65 59.1% -16.3%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 80

Started Drive at: BAY 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.13 - 3.53 = -3.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.13)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.1%

Win Probability (After): 42.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 7 at TCU 12) Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - TCU 20, BAY 21 3.23 33.1% 20.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.77 = 3.23

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.23)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.1%

Win Probability (After): 53.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:52 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 1 at BAY 33) Blake Shapen pass complete to Dillon Doyle for 3 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, BAY 14 2.52 39.6% 8.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 64

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.99 - -0.53 = 2.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.6%

Win Probability (After): 48.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:00 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 6 at TCU 17) Qualan Jones run for 15 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST down - TCU 7, BAY 7 2.42 55.5% 5.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 2

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.32 - 3.90 = 2.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.90)

Score Difference (End): 0 (6.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.5%

Win Probability (After): 60.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:40 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 5 at TCU 45) Max Duggan pass intercepted Devin Neal return for no gain to the Bayl 10 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -2.39 59.9% -8.2%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 90

Started Drive at: TCU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.11 - 2.28 = -2.39

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.11)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.9%

Win Probability (After): 51.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 0:43 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 1 at BAY 41) Max Duggan run for 12 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST down - TCU 26, BAY 28 1.32 40.9% 28.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 29

Started Drive at: TCU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.03 - 1.72 = 1.32

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.28)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.9%

Win Probability (After): 69.1%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 10:29 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 11 at BAY 15) Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 74 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST down - TCU 20, BAY 21 6.00 46.1% 23.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 11

Started Drive at: BAY 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.99 - -1.01 = 6.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (-0.01)

Score Difference (End): 1 (5.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.1%

Win Probability (After): 69.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 7 at TCU 12) Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - TCU 20, BAY 21 3.23 33.1% 20.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.77 = 3.23

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.23)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.1%

Win Probability (After): 53.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:06 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at 50) Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 9 yds to the Bayl 41 - TCU 26, BAY 28 0.64 40.5% 19.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 41

Started Drive at: TCU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.22 - 1.58 = 0.64

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.42)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.5%

Win Probability (After): 60.0%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:04 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at TCU 11) Blake Shapen pass intercepted, touchback. Bud Clark return for no gain - TCU 14, BAY 14 -3.65 59.1% -16.3%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 80

Started Drive at: BAY 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.13 - 3.53 = -3.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.13)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.1%

Win Probability (After): 42.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2628 (4th & 5 at BAY 23) Griffin Kell 40 yd FG GOOD - TCU 29, BAY 28 0.63 84.6% 15.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 24

Started Drive at: TCU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.37 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.37)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 29, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.6%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 26 (29) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 12 at BAY 23) Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 42 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST down - TCU 7, BAY 7 4.91 38.2% 14.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 35

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.83 - -1.08 = 4.91

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.2%

Win Probability (After): 52.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:05 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 1 at TCU 36) Craig Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 39 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -4.52 51.0% -12.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 61

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.18 - 2.34 = -4.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.18)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.0%

Win Probability (After): 38.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:21 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 10 at TCU 31) Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - TCU 26, BAY 28 0.77 29.9% 12.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 50

Started Drive at: TCU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.63 - 0.87 = 0.77

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.13)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.9%

Win Probability (After): 42.7%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:48 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 10) Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 77 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST down - TCU 7, BAY 14 5.33 37.7% 12.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 13

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.81 - -0.52 = 5.33

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.52)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.7%

Win Probability (After): 50.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 9:15 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 6 at TCU 10) Qualan Jones run for 10 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - TCU 0, BAY 7 2.18 56.6% 5.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.82 = 2.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.82)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.6%

Win Probability (After): 61.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:20 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & Goal at BAY 7) Max Duggan run for 7 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) - TCU 7, BAY 7 2.18 48.5% 5.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.82 = 2.18

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 53.9%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:05 ESPN team id 239 (1st & Goal at TCU 2) Kelsey Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - TCU 7, BAY 14 0.71 59.9% 6.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.29 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.29)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.9%

Win Probability (After): 65.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:00 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & Goal at BAY 2) Kendre Miller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) - TCU 14, BAY 14 1.19 52.3% 3.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.81 = 1.19

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.3%

Win Probability (After): 56.2%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:34 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at BAY 26) Max Duggan pass complete to Gunnar Henderson for 26 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell PAT MISSED) - TCU 20, BAY 14 1.65 66.9% 10.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 4.35 = 1.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.35)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.9%

Win Probability (After): 77.5%

Away Score: 14 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 7 at TCU 12) Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - TCU 20, BAY 21 3.23 33.1% 20.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.77 = 3.23

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.23)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.1%

Win Probability (After): 53.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:47 ESPN team id 239 (1st & Goal at TCU 1) Richard Reese run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - TCU 20, BAY 28 0.61 76.0% 6.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.39 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): 1 (7.39)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.0%

Win Probability (After): 82.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:07 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & Goal at BAY 3) Emari Demercado run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - TCU 26, BAY 28 0.10 19.4% 10.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 5.90 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-2.10)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.4%

Win Probability (After): 30.1%

Away Score: 20 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2628 (4th & 5 at BAY 23) Griffin Kell 40 yd FG GOOD - TCU 29, BAY 28 0.63 84.6% 15.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 24

Started Drive at: TCU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.37 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.37)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 29, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.6%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 26 (29) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 239 (Kickoff at BAY 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 59 yds , Monaray Baldwin return for 18 yds to the Bayl 24 - TCU 0, BAY 0 -1.30 41.8% -2.3%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 76

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.44 - 0.86 = -1.30

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.8%

Win Probability (After): 39.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:53 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 24) Craig Williams run for 5 yds to the Bayl 29 - TCU 0, BAY 0 0.29 42.1% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 71

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.00 - 0.71 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.71)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.1%

Win Probability (After): 42.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:16 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 5 at BAY 29) Qualan Jones run for 7 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST down - TCU 0, BAY 0 0.63 42.9% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 64

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.77 - 1.14 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.9%

Win Probability (After): 43.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:40 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 36) Craig Williams run for 6 yds to the Bayl 42 - TCU 0, BAY 0 0.17 46.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 58

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.15 - 1.97 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.97)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.4%

Win Probability (After): 45.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:30 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 4 at BAY 42) Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 14 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST down - TCU 0, BAY 0 1.13 47.9% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 44

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.29 - 2.16 = 1.13

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.9%

Win Probability (After): 49.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:43 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at TCU 44) Craig Williams run for 19 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST down - TCU 0, BAY 0 1.07 49.4% 2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 25

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.36 - 3.28 = 1.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.4%

Win Probability (After): 51.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:05 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at TCU 25) Blake Shapen pass complete to Craig Williams for 6 yds to the TCU 19 - TCU 0, BAY 0 0.33 51.4% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 19

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.69 - 4.37 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.4%

Win Probability (After): 52.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:33 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 4 at TCU 19) Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the TCU 16 - TCU 0, BAY 0 0.08 52.3% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 16

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.81 - 4.73 = 0.08

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.73)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.3%

Win Probability (After): 51.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:52 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 1 at TCU 16) Craig Williams run for no gain to the TCU 16 - TCU 0, BAY 0 -0.85 53.3% -3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 16

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 4.77 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.77)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.3%

Win Probability (After): 50.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:12 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 1 at TCU 16) Dillon Doyle run for 2 yds to the TCU 14 for a 1ST down - TCU 0, BAY 0 1.07 52.3% 2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 14

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.02 - 3.95 = 1.07

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.3%

Win Probability (After): 54.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 9:48 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at TCU 14) Monaray Baldwin run for 4 yds to the TCU 10 - TCU 0, BAY 0 -0.21 55.2% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 10

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.84 - 5.05 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.2%

Win Probability (After): 54.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:15 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 6 at TCU 10) Qualan Jones run for 10 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - TCU 0, BAY 7 2.18 56.6% 5.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.82 = 2.18

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.82)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.6%

Win Probability (After): 61.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:15 ESPN team id 2628 (Kickoff at TCU 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 0, BAY 7 0.00 40.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 0.01 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.99)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.0%

Win Probability (After): 40.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:00 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 25) Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the TCU 26 - TCU 0, BAY 7 -0.53 40.2% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.46 - 0.07 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.93)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.2%

Win Probability (After): 39.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:50 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 9 at TCU 26) Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 4 yds to the TCU 30 - TCU 0, BAY 7 -0.16 39.4% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 70

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.66 - -0.51 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.51)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.4%

Win Probability (After): 38.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:14 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 5 at TCU 30) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin Johnston - TCU 0, BAY 7 -1.47 37.4% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.28 - -0.81 = -1.47

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.81)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.4%

Win Probability (After): 36.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:06 ESPN team id 2628 (4th & 5 at TCU 30) Jordy Sandy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Monaray Baldwin at the Bayl 27 - TCU 0, BAY 7 -0.08 35.4% 0.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 73

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.39 - -2.30 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.30)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.39)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.4%

Win Probability (After): 36.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 7:58 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 27) Richard Reese run for 27 yds to the TCU 46 for a 1ST down - TCU 0, BAY 7 1.41 64.1% 2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 46

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.77 - 2.36 = 1.41

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.36)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.1%

Win Probability (After): 67.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:30 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at TCU 46) Monaray Baldwin run for 3 yds to the TCU 43 - TCU 0, BAY 7 -0.35 67.5% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 43

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.37 - 3.72 = -0.35

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.72)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.5%

Win Probability (After): 67.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:01 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 7 at TCU 43) Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 10 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST down - TCU 0, BAY 7 1.00 67.6% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 33

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.43 - 3.43 = 1.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.43)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.6%

Win Probability (After): 68.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:26 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at TCU 33) Richard Reese run for 10 yds to the TCU 23 for a 1ST down - TCU 0, BAY 7 0.44 68.9% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 23

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.90 - 4.46 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.46)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.9%

Win Probability (After): 69.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:54 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at TCU 23) Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Kelsey Johnson - TCU 0, BAY 7 -0.59 70.1% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.31 - 4.90 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.90)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.1%

Win Probability (After): 68.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:44 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 10 at TCU 23) Qualan Jones run for no gain to the TCU 23 - TCU 0, BAY 7 -0.77 69.5% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 23

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.56 - 4.33 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.33)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.5%

Win Probability (After): 68.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:18 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 10 at TCU 23) BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Mose Jeffery) to the TCU 28 - TCU 0, BAY 7 -0.84 68.6% -1.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 28

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.72 - 3.56 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.56)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.6%

Win Probability (After): 67.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 5:01 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 15 at TCU 28) Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray Baldwin - TCU 0, BAY 7 -0.99 67.6% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 28

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.75 - 2.74 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.74)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.6%

Win Probability (After): 66.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:56 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 15 at TCU 29) John Mayers 46 yd FG MISSED - TCU 0, BAY 7 -2.03 66.3% -6.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 72

Started Drive at: BAY 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.35 - 1.68 = -2.03

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.68)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.65)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.3%

Win Probability (After): 60.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:50 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 28) Kendre Miller run for no gain to the TCU 28 - TCU 0, BAY 7 -0.81 39.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 72

Started Drive at: TCU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.46 - 0.35 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.65)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.5%

Win Probability (After): 39.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:13 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 10 at TCU 28) Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 39 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST down - TCU 0, BAY 7 3.88 38.8% 8.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 33

Started Drive at: TCU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - -0.46 = 3.88

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.46)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.8%

Win Probability (After): 46.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:05 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at BAY 33) Max Duggan pass complete to Trent Battle for 10 yds to the Bayl 23 for a 1ST down - TCU 0, BAY 7 0.65 46.9% 1.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 23

Started Drive at: TCU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.06 - 3.41 = 0.65

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.59)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 49 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.9%

Win Probability (After): 48.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:06 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at BAY 23) Kendre Miller run for 5 yds to the Bayl 18 - TCU 0, BAY 7 0.23 48.3% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 18

Started Drive at: TCU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.28 - 4.05 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.95)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.3%

Win Probability (After): 49.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:33 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 5 at BAY 18) Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 10 yds to the Bayl 8 for a 1ST down - TCU 0, BAY 7 1.02 47.4% 3.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 8

Started Drive at: TCU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.29 - 4.27 = 1.02

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.73)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-1.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.4%

Win Probability (After): 51.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:54 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & Goal at BAY 8) Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for 1 yd to the Bayl 7 - TCU 0, BAY 7 -0.50 49.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 7

Started Drive at: TCU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.81 - 5.30 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.70)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.6%

Win Probability (After): 49.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:20 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & Goal at BAY 7) Max Duggan run for 7 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) - TCU 7, BAY 7 2.18 48.5% 5.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.82 = 2.18

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.5%

Win Probability (After): 53.9%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:20 ESPN team id 239 (Kickoff at BAY 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 7, BAY 7 0.00 45.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.16 - 1.16 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.9%

Win Probability (After): 45.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:14 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 25) Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Kelsey Johnson - TCU 7, BAY 7 -0.64 45.9% -1.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.52 - 1.16 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.16)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.9%

Win Probability (After): 44.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:14 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 10 at BAY 25) BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (Khalil Keith) to the Bayl 20 - TCU 7, BAY 7 -0.78 44.7% -3.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 80

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.26 - 0.52 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.52)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.26)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.7%

Win Probability (After): 41.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:06 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 15 at BAY 20) Monaray Baldwin run for 3 yds to the Bayl 23 - TCU 7, BAY 7 -0.81 41.1% -2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 77

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.07 - -0.25 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.25)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.1%

Win Probability (After): 38.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 12 at BAY 23) Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 42 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST down - TCU 7, BAY 7 4.91 38.2% 14.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 35

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.83 - -1.08 = 4.91

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.2%

Win Probability (After): 52.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:55 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at TCU 35) Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 9 yds to the TCU 26 - TCU 7, BAY 7 0.76 50.8% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 26

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.58 - 3.82 = 0.76

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.82)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.8%

Win Probability (After): 52.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:04 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 1 at TCU 26) Craig Williams run for 5 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST down - TCU 7, BAY 7 0.11 53.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 21

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.68 - 4.58 = 0.11

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.58)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.0%

Win Probability (After): 53.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:48 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at TCU 21) Craig Williams run for 5 yds to the TCU 16 - TCU 7, BAY 7 0.20 57.5% -3.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 16

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.86 - 4.66 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.66)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.5%

Win Probability (After): 54.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:19 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 5 at TCU 16) Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 17 - TCU 7, BAY 7 -1.02 58.2% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 17

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.87 - 4.90 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.90)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.2%

Win Probability (After): 56.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:00 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 6 at TCU 17) Qualan Jones run for 15 yds to the TCU 2 for a 1ST down - TCU 7, BAY 7 2.42 55.5% 5.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 17 -> 2

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.32 - 3.90 = 2.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.90)

Score Difference (End): 0 (6.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.5%

Win Probability (After): 60.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:05 ESPN team id 239 (1st & Goal at TCU 2) Kelsey Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - TCU 7, BAY 14 0.71 59.9% 6.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.29 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 0 (6.29)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.9%

Win Probability (After): 65.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 7 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 12:05 ESPN team id 2628 (Kickoff at TCU 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds , Emari Demercado return for 20 yds to the BAYLOR 45 TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Geor'Quarius Spivey) to the TCU 10 - TCU 7, BAY 14 -1.86 38.5% -1.3%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 90

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.58 - 0.29 = -1.86

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-15.02)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.5%

Win Probability (After): 37.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:48 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 10) Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 77 yds to the Bayl 13 for a 1ST down - TCU 7, BAY 14 5.33 37.7% 12.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 13

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.81 - -0.52 = 5.33

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.52)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.7%

Win Probability (After): 50.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 11:03 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at BAY 13) Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the Bayl 10 - TCU 7, BAY 14 -0.34 50.6% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 10

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.50 - 4.84 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.16)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.6%

Win Probability (After): 49.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:24 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 7 at BAY 10) Kendre Miller run for 4 yds to the Bayl 6 - TCU 7, BAY 14 0.00 50.4% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 6

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - 4.52 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.48)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-2.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.4%

Win Probability (After): 49.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:44 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 3 at BAY 6) Duggan, Max pass incomplete to Johnston, Quentin, PENALTY BAYLOR pass interference (Milton, Mark) 4 yards to the BAYLOR2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU. - TCU 7, BAY 14 1.68 49.7% 3.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 2

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.18 - 4.49 = 1.68

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-2.51)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-0.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.7%

Win Probability (After): 53.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:37 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & Goal at BAY 2) Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for no gain to the Bayl 2 - TCU 7, BAY 14 -0.36 52.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 2

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.80 - 6.16 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-0.84)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-1.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.6%

Win Probability (After): 52.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:00 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & Goal at BAY 2) Kendre Miller run for 2 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell KICK) - TCU 14, BAY 14 1.19 52.3% 3.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.81 = 1.19

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-1.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 86 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.3%

Win Probability (After): 56.2%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:00 ESPN team id 239 (Kickoff at BAY 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds , Monaray Baldwin return for 24 yds to the Bayl 24 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -1.25 45.5% -3.5%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 76

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 1.18 = -1.25

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.18)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.5%

Win Probability (After): 42.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:43 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 24) Craig Williams run for 9 yds to the Bayl 33 - TCU 14, BAY 14 0.91 44.3% 4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 67

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 1.03 = 0.91

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.03)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 44.3%

Win Probability (After): 48.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 8:11 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 1 at BAY 33) Blake Shapen pass complete to Craig Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 29 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -1.83 47.7% -6.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 71

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 1.96 = -1.83

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.96)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.7%

Win Probability (After): 40.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 7:30 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 5 at BAY 29) Craig Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 33 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -0.72 42.0% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 67

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.52 - 0.20 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.20)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.0%

Win Probability (After): 40.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:52 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 1 at BAY 33) Blake Shapen pass complete to Dillon Doyle for 3 yds to the Bayl 36 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, BAY 14 2.52 39.6% 8.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 64

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.99 - -0.53 = 2.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.6%

Win Probability (After): 48.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 6:23 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 36) Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal Presley - TCU 14, BAY 14 -0.61 50.3% -3.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.49 - 2.10 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.3%

Win Probability (After): 47.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:13 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 10 at BAY 36) Blake Shapen run for 6 yds to the Bayl 42 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -0.19 48.6% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 58

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.33 - 1.52 = -0.19

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.52)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.6%

Win Probability (After): 48.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 5:42 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 4 at BAY 42) Craig Williams run for 13 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, BAY 14 2.17 46.8% 6.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 45

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.25 - 1.07 = 2.17

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.8%

Win Probability (After): 53.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:32 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at TCU 45) Blake Shapen sacked by Johnny Hodges and Dylan Horton for a loss of 10 yards to the Bayl 45 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -1.97 53.4% -4.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 55

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.22 - 3.19 = -1.97

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.4%

Win Probability (After): 48.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:19 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 20 at BAY 45) Blake Shapen pass complete to Ben Sims for 4 yds to the Bayl 49 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -0.65 49.2% -4.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 51

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.96 - 1.61 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.61)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 49.2%

Win Probability (After): 45.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:34 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 16 at BAY 49) Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 15 yds to the TCU 36 - TCU 14, BAY 14 1.39 45.1% 5.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 36

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.42 - 1.03 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.03)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.1%

Win Probability (After): 50.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:05 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 1 at TCU 36) Craig Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the TCU 39 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -4.52 51.0% -12.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 61

Started Drive at: BAY 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.18 - 2.34 = -4.52

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.34)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.18)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.0%

Win Probability (After): 38.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:59 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 39) Kendre Miller run for 10 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, BAY 14 0.33 61.8% 0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 51

Started Drive at: TCU 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.55 - 2.22 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.22)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.8%

Win Probability (After): 62.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:43 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 49) Max Duggan pass complete to Kendre Miller for 13 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, BAY 14 0.87 62.6% 3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 38

Started Drive at: TCU 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.41 - 2.54 = 0.87

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.54)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 62.6%

Win Probability (After): 65.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:28 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at BAY 38) Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the Bayl 36 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -0.27 65.6% -1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 36

Started Drive at: TCU 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.08 - 3.35 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.6%

Win Probability (After): 64.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:52 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 8 at BAY 36) Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 37 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -0.59 64.9% -3.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 37

Started Drive at: TCU 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.39 - 2.99 = -0.59

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.99)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.9%

Win Probability (After): 61.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:47 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 9 at BAY 37) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Geor'Quarius Spivey - TCU 14, BAY 14 -1.27 61.9% -3.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 37

Started Drive at: TCU 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.05 - 2.32 = -1.27

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.32)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.9%

Win Probability (After): 58.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:37 ESPN team id 2628 (4th & 9 at BAY 37) Jordy Sandy punt for 24 yds, downed at the Bayl 13 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -1.68 57.4% -3.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 87

Started Drive at: TCU 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.68 - 1.00 = -1.68

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.00)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.68)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.4%

Win Probability (After): 53.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:30 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 13) Craig Williams run for 9 yds to the Bayl 22 - TCU 14, BAY 14 0.81 45.7% 2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 78

Started Drive at: BAY 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.10 - 0.30 = 0.81

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.30)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.7%

Win Probability (After): 47.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:23 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 1 at BAY 22) Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 3 yds to the Bayl 25 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, BAY 14 0.00 48.2% 0.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 75

Started Drive at: BAY 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 1.08 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.08)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.2%

Win Probability (After): 48.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:12 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 25) Blake Shapen pass complete to Qualan Jones for 4 yds to the Bayl 29 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -0.12 48.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 71

Started Drive at: BAY 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.15 - 1.27 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.27)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.6%

Win Probability (After): 48.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:06 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 6 at BAY 29) Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 17 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, BAY 14 1.05 48.4% 2.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 54

Started Drive at: BAY 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 1.19 = 1.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.4%

Win Probability (After): 51.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:47 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 46) Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan Jones - TCU 14, BAY 14 -0.05 51.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54

Started Drive at: BAY 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - 1.86 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.0%

Win Probability (After): 50.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:42 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 10 at BAY 46) Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray Baldwin - TCU 14, BAY 14 -0.28 50.1% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 54

Started Drive at: BAY 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - 1.64 = -0.28

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.1%

Win Probability (After): 48.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:36 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 10 at BAY 46) Blake Shapen pass complete to Cameron Bonner for 13 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, BAY 14 1.13 48.1% 5.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 41

Started Drive at: BAY 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 1.35 = 1.13

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.35)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.1%

Win Probability (After): 53.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:35 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at TCU 41) Timeout BAYLOR, clock 00:35 - TCU 14, BAY 14 0.00 53.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41

Started Drive at: BAY 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.48 - 2.48 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.48)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.3%

Win Probability (After): 53.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:29 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at TCU 41) Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 14 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, BAY 14 1.37 53.4% 3.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 27

Started Drive at: BAY 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.58 - 2.21 = 1.37

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.21)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 60 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.4%

Win Probability (After): 57.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:18 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at TCU 27) Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 8 yds to the TCU 19 - TCU 14, BAY 14 0.96 57.0% 3.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 19

Started Drive at: BAY 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.08 - 3.11 = 0.96

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.11)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.0%

Win Probability (After): 60.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:11 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 2 at TCU 19) Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 8 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, BAY 14 0.72 58.9% 1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 11

Started Drive at: BAY 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 3.57 = 0.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.57)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.9%

Win Probability (After): 60.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:04 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at TCU 11) Blake Shapen pass intercepted, touchback. Bud Clark return for no gain - TCU 14, BAY 14 -3.65 59.1% -16.3%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 80

Started Drive at: BAY 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.13 - 3.53 = -3.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.53)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.13)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.1%

Win Probability (After): 42.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 20) TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 18 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -0.02 56.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 82

Started Drive at: TCU 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.06 - 0.02 = -0.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.02)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.0%

Win Probability (After): 56.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2628 (Kickoff at TCU 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 14, BAY 14 0.00 56.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.0%

Win Probability (After): 56.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:54 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 25) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye Barber - TCU 14, BAY 14 -0.72 57.6% -2.8%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - 0.94 = -0.72

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.94)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.6%

Win Probability (After): 54.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:46 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 10 at TCU 25) Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 13 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, BAY 14 1.62 56.1% 3.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 62

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.98 - 0.36 = 1.62

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.36)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.1%

Win Probability (After): 59.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:12 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 38) Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 40 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -0.56 59.3% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 60

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 2.05 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.3%

Win Probability (After): 59.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:31 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 8 at TCU 40) Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for 7 yds to the TCU 47 - TCU 14, BAY 14 0.58 59.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 53

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.10 - 1.52 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.52)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.1%

Win Probability (After): 59.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:00 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 1 at TCU 47) Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, BAY 14 0.57 59.1% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 51

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - 2.17 = 0.57

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.17)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.1%

Win Probability (After): 61.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:27 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 49) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin Johnston - TCU 14, BAY 14 -0.67 60.3% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 51

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 2.73 = -0.67

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.73)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.3%

Win Probability (After): 59.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:17 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 10 at TCU 49) Kendre Miller run for 2 yds to the Bayl 49 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -0.73 58.5% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 49

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.33 - 2.05 = -0.73

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.5%

Win Probability (After): 57.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:34 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 8 at BAY 49) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion Williams - TCU 14, BAY 14 -1.92 57.6% -7.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.59 - 1.33 = -1.92

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.33)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.6%

Win Probability (After): 50.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:25 ESPN team id 2628 (4th & 8 at BAY 49) Jordy Sandy punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Monaray Baldwin at the Bayl 16 - TCU 14, BAY 14 0.02 50.8% -0.7%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 84

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.64 - -0.66 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.66)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.64)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.8%

Win Probability (After): 50.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 11:15 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 16) Richard Reese run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 13 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -1.48 48.9% -5.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 87

Started Drive at: BAY 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.88 - 0.60 = -1.48

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.60)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.9%

Win Probability (After): 43.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:00 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 13 at BAY 13) Blake Shapen pass incomplete - TCU 14, BAY 14 -0.99 43.2% -4.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 87

Started Drive at: BAY 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.83 - -0.84 = -0.99

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.84)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 43.2%

Win Probability (After): 39.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:41 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 13 at BAY 13) Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Monaray Baldwin - TCU 14, BAY 14 -0.93 39.7% -3.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 87

Started Drive at: BAY 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.61 - -1.68 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.68)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-2.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.7%

Win Probability (After): 36.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:29 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 13 at BAY 13) Issac Power punt for 48 yds , Taye Barber returns for 6 yds to the TCU 19 TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (Bud Clark) to the TCU 30 - TCU 14, BAY 14 0.88 35.7% 7.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 70

Started Drive at: BAY 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.72 - -2.49 = 0.88

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-2.61)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.72)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.7%

Win Probability (After): 43.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 10:18 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 30) Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for no gain to the TCU 30 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -0.81 56.1% 2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: TCU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.93 - 1.74 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.74)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.1%

Win Probability (After): 58.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:50 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 10 at TCU 30) Kendre Miller run for 10 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, BAY 14 1.32 56.6% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 60

Started Drive at: TCU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 0.97 = 1.32

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.97)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.6%

Win Probability (After): 57.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:17 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 40) Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 5 yds to the TCU 45 - TCU 14, BAY 14 0.20 59.7% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 55

Started Drive at: TCU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.43 - 2.22 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.22)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.7%

Win Probability (After): 59.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:40 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 5 at TCU 45) Max Duggan pass intercepted Devin Neal return for no gain to the Bayl 10 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -2.39 59.9% -8.2%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 90

Started Drive at: TCU 30

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.11 - 2.28 = -2.39

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.28)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.11)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.9%

Win Probability (After): 51.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:35 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 10) Craig Williams run for 6 yds to the Bayl 16 - TCU 14, BAY 14 0.24 47.6% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 84

Started Drive at: BAY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.31 - 0.07 = 0.24

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.07)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.6%

Win Probability (After): 48.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:53 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 4 at BAY 16) Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 15 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -1.11 48.0% -4.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 85

Started Drive at: BAY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.75 - 0.37 = -1.11

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.37)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.0%

Win Probability (After): 43.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:19 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 5 at BAY 15) Blake Shapen pass complete to Richard Reese for 4 yds to the Bayl 19 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -0.91 42.9% -4.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 81

Started Drive at: BAY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.63 - -0.72 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.72)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 42.9%

Win Probability (After): 38.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:35 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 1 at BAY 19) Issac Power punt for 44 yds , Taye Barber returns for 12 yds to the TCU 49 - TCU 14, BAY 14 -1.16 39.4% 0.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 51

Started Drive at: BAY 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.71 - -1.56 = -1.16

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.56)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.71)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.4%

Win Probability (After): 40.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:30 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 49) Kendre Miller run for 5 yds to the Bayl 46 - TCU 14, BAY 14 0.20 60.0% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 46

Started Drive at: TCU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.94 - 2.74 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.74)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.0%

Win Probability (After): 60.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:45 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 5 at BAY 46) Max Duggan pass complete to Gunnar Henderson for 20 yds to the Bayl 26 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, BAY 14 1.42 61.3% 4.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 26

Started Drive at: TCU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.35 - 2.93 = 1.42

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.93)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 61.3%

Win Probability (After): 65.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:34 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at BAY 26) Max Duggan pass complete to Gunnar Henderson for 26 yds for a TD, (Griffin Kell PAT MISSED) - TCU 20, BAY 14 1.65 66.9% 10.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 4.35 = 1.65

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.35)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.9%

Win Probability (After): 77.5%

Away Score: 14 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:34 ESPN team id 239 (Kickoff at BAY 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 55 yds , Monaray Baldwin return for 13 yds to the Bayl 23 - TCU 20, BAY 14 -1.20 28.9% -3.2%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 77

Started Drive at: BAY 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.49 - 0.71 = -1.20

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.29)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.9%

Win Probability (After): 25.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:20 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 23) Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 10 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST down - TCU 20, BAY 14 0.88 29.0% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 67

Started Drive at: BAY 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 0.60 = 0.88

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.40)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.0%

Win Probability (After): 29.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:47 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 33) Timeout BAYLOR, clock 04:47 - TCU 20, BAY 14 0.00 29.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: BAY 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 1.48 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.52)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.5%

Win Probability (After): 29.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:36 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 33) Craig Williams run for 7 yds to the Bayl 40 - TCU 20, BAY 14 0.42 27.2% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 60

Started Drive at: BAY 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.89 - 1.47 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.53)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-4.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.2%

Win Probability (After): 28.2%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:02 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 3 at BAY 40) Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the Bayl 46 for a 1ST down - TCU 20, BAY 14 0.40 28.0% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 54

Started Drive at: BAY 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 1.88 = 0.40

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-4.12)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-3.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.0%

Win Probability (After): 29.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:55 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 46) Blake Shapen run for 9 yds to the TCU 45 - TCU 20, BAY 14 0.88 28.7% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 45

Started Drive at: BAY 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.16 - 2.28 = 0.88

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-3.72)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 28.7%

Win Probability (After): 30.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:00 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 1 at TCU 45) Craig Williams run for 20 yds to the TCU 25 for a 1ST down - TCU 20, BAY 14 1.01 30.3% 4.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 25

Started Drive at: BAY 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.17 - 3.16 = 1.01

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.84)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-1.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.3%

Win Probability (After): 35.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:00 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at TCU 25) Craig Williams run for 3 yds to the TCU 22 - TCU 20, BAY 14 -0.08 34.0% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 22

Started Drive at: BAY 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.10 - 4.18 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-1.82)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-1.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.0%

Win Probability (After): 35.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:29 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 7 at TCU 22) Richard Reese run for 7 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST down - TCU 20, BAY 14 0.83 35.4% 3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 15

Started Drive at: BAY 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.94 - 4.11 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-1.89)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-1.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 62 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.4%

Win Probability (After): 38.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:52 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at TCU 15) Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the TCU 12 - TCU 20, BAY 14 -0.33 38.6% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 12

Started Drive at: BAY 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.61 - 4.94 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-1.06)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-1.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 38.6%

Win Probability (After): 37.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 7 at TCU 12) Richard Reese run for no gain to the TCU 12 - TCU 20, BAY 14 -0.78 37.4% -3.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 12

Started Drive at: BAY 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.77 - 4.56 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-1.44)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-2.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 14

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 37.4%

Win Probability (After): 33.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (14)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 7 at TCU 12) Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 12 yds for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - TCU 20, BAY 21 3.23 33.1% 20.4%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.77 = 3.23

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-2.23)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.1%

Win Probability (After): 53.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 14 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:54 ESPN team id 2628 (Kickoff at TCU 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 20, BAY 21 0.00 50.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 1.08 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.08)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.6%

Win Probability (After): 50.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:47 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 25) Max Duggan pass complete to Trent Battle for 10 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST down - TCU 20, BAY 21 0.90 50.7% 2.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 65

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.97 - 1.07 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.07)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.7%

Win Probability (After): 53.2%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:08 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 35) Max Duggan pass complete to Blair Conwright for 10 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST down - TCU 20, BAY 21 0.51 53.6% 2.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 55

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.45 - 1.94 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.94)

Score Difference (End): -1 (1.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.6%

Win Probability (After): 55.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:40 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 45) Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the TCU 46 - TCU 20, BAY 21 -0.53 57.4% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 54

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 2.46 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -1 (1.46)

Score Difference (End): -1 (0.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.4%

Win Probability (After): 55.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:08 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 9 at TCU 46) Duggan, Max rush for 2 yards to the TCU48, PENALTY TCU holding (Lanz, John) 10 yards to the TCU36, NO PLAY. - TCU 20, BAY 21 -1.11 55.3% -4.9%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 64

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.85 - 1.96 = -1.11

Score Difference (Before): -1 (0.96)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.3%

Win Probability (After): 50.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:00 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 19 at TCU 36) Max Duggan run for 7 yds to the TCU 43 - TCU 20, BAY 21 -0.46 50.8% -2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 57

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - 0.93 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.07)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-0.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.8%

Win Probability (After): 47.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:59 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 12 at TCU 43) Max Duggan pass incomplete - TCU 20, BAY 21 -1.41 47.9% -5.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.77 - 0.63 = -1.41

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-0.37)

Score Difference (End): -1 (-1.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.9%

Win Probability (After): 42.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:49 ESPN team id 2628 (4th & 12 at TCU 43) Jordy Sandy punt for 39 yds , Monaray Baldwin returns for no gain to the Bayl 16 Monaray Baldwin fumbled, recovered by Bayl Monaray Baldwin - TCU 20, BAY 21 -0.21 41.3% 2.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 84

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.86 - -0.64 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): -1 (-1.64)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.86)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 20, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 41.3%

Win Probability (After): 43.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 11:41 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 16) Craig Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 12 - TCU 20, BAY 21 -1.29 56.1% -4.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 88

Started Drive at: BAY 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.53 - 0.77 = -1.29

Score Difference (Before): 1 (1.77)

Score Difference (End): 1 (0.47)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 1 play, -4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.1%

Win Probability (After): 51.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:11 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 14 at BAY 12) Blake Shapen pass complete to Craig Williams for 3 yds to the Bayl 15 - TCU 20, BAY 21 -0.43 51.8% -5.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 85

Started Drive at: BAY 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.02 - -0.59 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): 1 (0.41)

Score Difference (End): 1 (-0.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.8%

Win Probability (After): 46.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:29 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 11 at BAY 15) Blake Shapen pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 74 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST down - TCU 20, BAY 21 6.00 46.1% 23.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 11

Started Drive at: BAY 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.99 - -1.01 = 6.00

Score Difference (Before): 1 (-0.01)

Score Difference (End): 1 (5.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.1%

Win Probability (After): 69.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:54 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at TCU 11) Richard Reese run for 10 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST down - TCU 20, BAY 21 1.42 72.6% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 1

Started Drive at: BAY 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.40 - 4.98 = 1.42

Score Difference (Before): 1 (5.98)

Score Difference (End): 1 (7.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 21

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.6%

Win Probability (After): 74.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (21)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:47 ESPN team id 239 (1st & Goal at TCU 1) Richard Reese run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Mayers KICK) - TCU 20, BAY 28 0.61 76.0% 6.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: BAY 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.39 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): 1 (7.39)

Score Difference (End): 8 (8.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.0%

Win Probability (After): 82.8%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 21 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:47 ESPN team id 2628 (Kickoff at TCU 35) Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 20, BAY 28 0.00 18.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.73 - 0.73 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.27)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.0%

Win Probability (After): 18.0%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:34 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 25) Emari Demercado run for 1 yd to the TCU 26 - TCU 20, BAY 28 -0.41 17.7% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.30 - 0.71 = -0.41

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.29)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.7%

Win Probability (After): 15.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:30 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 9 at TCU 26) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Blair Conwright - TCU 20, BAY 28 -0.86 15.7% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.60 - 0.26 = -0.86

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-7.74)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.7%

Win Probability (After): 13.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:00 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 9 at TCU 26) Max Duggan pass incomplete - TCU 20, BAY 28 -1.09 12.9% -1.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.72 - -0.64 = -1.09

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-8.64)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-9.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.9%

Win Probability (After): 11.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:52 ESPN team id 2628 (4th & 9 at TCU 26) Jordy Sandy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Monaray Baldwin at the Bayl 33 - TCU 20, BAY 28 0.03 10.6% 2.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 67

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.69 - -1.72 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-9.72)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.69)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.6%

Win Probability (After): 13.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 8:40 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 33) Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 35 - TCU 20, BAY 28 -0.30 87.4% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 65

Started Drive at: BAY 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.29 - 1.60 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.60)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.4%

Win Probability (After): 86.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 8:02 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 8 at BAY 35) Craig Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 39 - TCU 20, BAY 28 -0.25 86.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 61

Started Drive at: BAY 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.01 - 1.26 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.26)

Score Difference (End): 8 (9.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.4%

Win Probability (After): 86.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:02 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 4 at BAY 39) Blake Shapen run for 1 yd to the Bayl 40 - TCU 20, BAY 28 -1.65 89.4% -4.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 60

Started Drive at: BAY 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.50 - 1.15 = -1.65

Score Difference (Before): 8 (9.15)

Score Difference (End): 8 (7.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.4%

Win Probability (After): 85.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:48 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 3 at BAY 40) Issac Power punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Taye Barber at the TCU 10 - TCU 20, BAY 28 0.52 86.0% 3.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 90

Started Drive at: BAY 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.15 - -0.37 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): 8 (7.63)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-8.15)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.0%

Win Probability (After): 89.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 6:38 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 10) Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 5 yds to the TCU 15 - TCU 20, BAY 28 0.20 10.2% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 85

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.08 - -0.13 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-8.13)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-7.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.2%

Win Probability (After): 10.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 6:06 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 5 at TCU 15) Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 22 yds to the TCU 37 for a 1ST down - TCU 20, BAY 28 1.75 9.1% 4.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 63

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - -0.11 = 1.75

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-8.11)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-6.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.1%

Win Probability (After): 13.3%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:33 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 37) Max Duggan pass complete to Gunnar Henderson for 6 yds to the TCU 43 - TCU 20, BAY 28 0.23 12.0% 1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 57

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.75 - 1.52 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.48)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-6.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.0%

Win Probability (After): 13.5%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:10 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 4 at TCU 43) Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 46 - TCU 20, BAY 28 -0.11 12.4% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 54

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.68 - 1.79 = -0.11

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.21)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-6.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.4%

Win Probability (After): 12.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:41 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 1 at TCU 46) Max Duggan run for 21 yds to the Bayl 33 for a 1ST down - TCU 20, BAY 28 1.80 10.5% 5.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 33

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.52 - 1.72 = 1.80

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-6.28)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-4.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.5%

Win Probability (After): 16.4%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:10 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at BAY 33) Max Duggan run for no gain to the Bayl 33 - TCU 20, BAY 28 -0.36 15.3% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.02 - 3.38 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-4.62)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-4.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.3%

Win Probability (After): 14.7%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:48 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 10 at BAY 33) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Blair Conwright - TCU 20, BAY 28 -0.75 13.3% -2.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 33

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.22 - 2.97 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.03)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-5.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.3%

Win Probability (After): 10.9%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:40 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 10 at BAY 33) Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 15 yds to the Bayl 18 for a 1ST down - TCU 20, BAY 28 2.21 10.8% 7.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 33 -> 18

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.58 - 2.36 = 2.21

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-5.64)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-3.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 72 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.8%

Win Probability (After): 18.6%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:16 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at BAY 18) Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 7 yds to the Bayl 11 - TCU 20, BAY 28 0.75 16.6% 4.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 11

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.16 - 4.41 = 0.75

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-3.59)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-2.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.6%

Win Probability (After): 21.1%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:39 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 3 at BAY 11) Emari Demercado run for 8 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST down - TCU 20, BAY 28 1.09 16.4% 8.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 3

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.06 - 4.98 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-3.02)

Score Difference (End): -8 (-1.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 20, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 87 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.4%

Win Probability (After): 25.2%

Away Score: 20 (20) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:07 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & Goal at BAY 3) Emari Demercado run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) - TCU 26, BAY 28 0.10 19.4% 10.7%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 5.90 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): -8 (-2.10)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-2.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 90 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.4%

Win Probability (After): 30.1%

Away Score: 20 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:07 ESPN team id 239 (Kickoff at BAY 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 61 yds , Monaray Baldwin return for 14 yds to the Bayl 18 - TCU 26, BAY 28 -0.83 81.6% -7.6%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 82

Started Drive at: BAY 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.16 - 0.99 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.99)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.6%

Win Probability (After): 74.0%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:58 ESPN team id 239 (1st & 10 at BAY 18) Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 20 - TCU 26, BAY 28 -0.24 79.2% -4.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 80

Started Drive at: BAY 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.42 - 0.66 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.66)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.2%

Win Probability (After): 75.0%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:56 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 8 at BAY 20) Timeout TCU, clock 01:56 - TCU 26, BAY 28 0.00 77.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 80

Started Drive at: BAY 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.42 - 0.42 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.42)

Score Difference (End): 2 (2.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.5%

Win Probability (After): 77.5%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:55 ESPN team id 239 (2nd & 8 at BAY 20) Qualan Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Bayl 18 - TCU 26, BAY 28 -0.58 77.7% -6.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 82

Started Drive at: BAY 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.17 - 0.41 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 2 (2.41)

Score Difference (End): 2 (1.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.7%

Win Probability (After): 71.1%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:54 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 10 at BAY 18) Timeout TCU, clock 01:54 - TCU 26, BAY 28 0.00 71.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 82

Started Drive at: BAY 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.17 - -0.17 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 2 (1.83)

Score Difference (End): 2 (1.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.2%

Win Probability (After): 71.2%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:46 ESPN team id 239 (3rd & 10 at BAY 18) Blake Shapen run for 8 yds to the Bayl 26 - TCU 26, BAY 28 -0.37 70.7% -4.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 74

Started Drive at: BAY 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.60 - -0.22 = -0.37

Score Difference (Before): 2 (1.78)

Score Difference (End): 2 (1.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.7%

Win Probability (After): 65.9%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:44 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 2 at BAY 26) Timeout TCU, clock 01:44 - TCU 26, BAY 28 0.00 67.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: BAY 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.60 - -0.60 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 2 (1.40)

Score Difference (End): 2 (1.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.0%

Win Probability (After): 67.0%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:34 ESPN team id 239 (4th & 2 at BAY 26) Issac Power punt for 46 yds , Taye Barber returns for 3 yds to the TCU 31 - TCU 26, BAY 28 -0.62 67.2% -5.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 69

Started Drive at: BAY 18

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.30 - -0.68 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): 2 (1.32)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.70)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.2%

Win Probability (After): 62.1%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 1:30 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 31) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Emari Demercado - TCU 26, BAY 28 -0.25 35.2% -4.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: TCU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.81 - 1.06 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.94)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-1.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.2%

Win Probability (After): 30.7%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:21 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 10 at TCU 31) Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down - TCU 26, BAY 28 0.77 29.9% 12.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 50

Started Drive at: TCU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.63 - 0.87 = 0.77

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-1.13)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.9%

Win Probability (After): 42.7%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:06 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at 50) Max Duggan pass complete to Savion Williams for 9 yds to the Bayl 41 - TCU 26, BAY 28 0.64 40.5% 19.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 41

Started Drive at: TCU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.22 - 1.58 = 0.64

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.42)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.5%

Win Probability (After): 60.0%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:49 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 1 at BAY 41) Max Duggan run for no gain to the Bayl 41 - TCU 26, BAY 28 -0.24 54.5% -10.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41

Started Drive at: TCU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.80 - 2.04 = -0.24

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.04)

Score Difference (End): -2 (-0.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.5%

Win Probability (After): 43.8%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:43 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 1 at BAY 41) Max Duggan run for 12 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST down - TCU 26, BAY 28 1.32 40.9% 28.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 29

Started Drive at: TCU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.03 - 1.72 = 1.32

Score Difference (Before): -2 (-0.28)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 40 yards

Win Probability (Before): 40.9%

Win Probability (After): 69.1%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:30 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at BAY 29) Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the Bayl 26 - TCU 26, BAY 28 0.44 75.4% 4.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 26

Started Drive at: TCU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.18 - 2.74 = 0.44

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.74)

Score Difference (End): -2 (1.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.4%

Win Probability (After): 79.7%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:22 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 7 at BAY 26) TEAM pass incomplete - TCU 26, BAY 28 -0.25 72.3% 3.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 26

Started Drive at: TCU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.74 - 2.99 = -0.25

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.99)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.3%

Win Probability (After): 75.9%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:17 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 7 at BAY 26) Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the Bayl 24 - TCU 26, BAY 28 -0.28 69.5% -6.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 24

Started Drive at: TCU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.42 - 2.69 = -0.28

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.69)

Score Difference (End): -2 (0.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 26, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.5%

Win Probability (After): 63.1%

Away Score: 26 (26) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2628 (4th & 5 at BAY 23) Griffin Kell 40 yd FG GOOD - TCU 29, BAY 28 0.63 84.6% 15.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 24

Started Drive at: TCU 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.37 = 0.63

Score Difference (Before): -2 (0.37)

Score Difference (End): 1 (1.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 29, BAY 28

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.6%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 26 (29) Home Score: 28 (28)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link