Georgia Tech 21 @ North Carolina 17

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 4.20 | Odds: UNC -21, O/U 63.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Concept from Robert Binion (@robert_binion). Cell colors reflect the percentile of a team's performance against all single-game FBS vs FBS performances in that stat in 2022.
Overall ESPN team id 59 ESPN team id 153
EPA/Play 0.09 62nd %ile-0.10 32nd %ile
Success Rate 50% 88th %ile41% 51st %ile
Yards/Play 5.32 37th %ile6.83 76th %ile
EPA/Dropback 0.30 77th %ile-0.40 12th %ile
EPA/Rush 0.00 47th %ile0.29 88th %ile
Yards/Dropback 8.13 80th %ile5.94 47th %ile
Explosive Play Rate 6% 26th %ile10% 71st %ile
3rd Down Success Rate 40% 47th %ile36% 32nd %ile
Red Zone Success Rate 64% 86th %ile37% 42nd %ile
Def Run Stuff Rate 4% 0th %ile6% 0th %ile
Havoc Rate 11% 59th %ile6% 18th %ile
Expected Points ESPN team id 59 ESPN team id 153
Total Plays 8273
Total EPA -0.71-7.88
  Offensive EPA 6.83-6.6
  Special Teams EPA -7.080.45
  Penalty EPA -0.46-2.05
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 0.000.32
Production ESPN team id 59 ESPN team id 153
Scrimmage Plays 7263
  Yards 383430
  Yards/Play 5.326.83
  EPA 6.83-6.60
  EPA/Play 0.09-0.10
Passes 23 (32%)36 (57%)
  Yards 187214
  Yards/Play 8.135.94
  EPA 6.83-14.43
  EPA/Play 0.30-0.40
Rushes 49 (68%)27 (43%)
  Yards 202232
  Yards/Play 4.398.59
  EPA -0.017.82
  EPA/Play 0.000.29
Rushing ESPN team id 59 ESPN team id 153
Scrimmage Plays 7263
Rushes 49 (68%)27 (43%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 1 (2%)4 (15%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 1 (100%)3 (75%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 3 (6%)1 (4%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 21 (43%)8 (30%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 20 (41%)17 (63%)
OL Line Yards 10651.5
  Per Carry 2.161.91
Highlight Yards 48.5118
  Per Rush Opportunity 2.426.94
Explosiveness ESPN team id 59 ESPN team id 153
Total Plays 8273
Scrimmage Plays 7263
Explosive Plays 4 (6%)6 (10%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 2 (9%)3 (8%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 2 (4%)3 (11%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -4.90-25.58
  EPA/Play -0.07-0.45
  When Passing 0.67-22.69
    EPA/Play 0.03-0.63
  When Rushing -5.57-2.89
    EPA/Play -0.12-0.12
Situational ESPN team id 59 ESPN team id 153
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 36 (50%)26 (41%)
  When Passing 14 (61%)11 (31%)
  When Rushing 22 (45%)15 (56%)
  On Standard Downs 27 (57%)17 (46%)
  On Passing Downs 9 (36%)9 (35%)
  On Early Downs 28 (49%)19 (42%)
  On Late Downs 8 (53%)7 (39%)
  During "Middle 8" 13 (72%)4 (40%)
Early Downs 5745
  First Downs Created 12 (21%)9 (20%)
  EPA 5.76-2.39
  EPA/Play 0.10-0.05
  Passes 15 (26%)25 (56%)
  Rushes 42 (74%)20 (44%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 10 (67%)8 (32%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 18 (43%)11 (55%)
"Middle 8" Plays 1810
  EPA 11.79-2.76
  EPA/play 0.66-0.28
  Passes 6 (33%)7 (70%)
  Rushes 12 (67%)3 (30%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 6 (100%)2 (29%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 7 (58%)2 (67%)
Drives ESPN team id 59 ESPN team id 153
Total 1211
Avg Starting Field Position Own 23Own 35
Plays/Drive 7.648.70
Yards/Drive 42.5635.43
Available Yards % 55%55%
Defensive ESPN team id 59 ESPN team id 153
Scrimmage Plays 6372
Stop Rate 59%31%
Havoc Plays Created 7 (11%)4 (6%)
  Passing 7 (19%)1 (4%)
  Rushing 0 (0%)3 (6%)
TFLs Generated 63
  Passing 60
  Rushing 03
Sacks Generated 6 (17%)0 (0%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 11
Fumbles Forced 00
Turnovers ESPN team id 59 ESPN team id 153
Turnovers 12
  Fumbles 22
  Fumbles Lost 01
  Fumbles Recovered 21
  Interceptions 11
Turnover Margin 1-1
Expected Turnovers 1.21.2
Expected Turnover Margin 0.00.0
Turnover Luck (pts) 5.0-5.0
Special Teams ESPN team id 59 ESPN team id 153
Total Plays 10 10
Total EPA -7.08 0.45
  Field Goal EPA -3.48 0.36
  Punting EPA -2.81 0.76
  Kickoff Return EPA -0.79 -0.67

Georgia Tech [show/hide]

ESPN team id 59
Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Zach Gibson 13/18, 174 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 82.7 xQBR, 0.00 DETMER 9.67 0.59 10.62 72% 13.0%
Taisun Phommachanh 2/5, 13 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 0 Scks, 50.1 xQBR, 0.02 DETMER 2.60 -0.76 -3.79 20% -2.0%
Rush attempts
Malachi Carter 1 carry, 40 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 40.00 2.57 2.57 100% 10.0%
Taisun Phommachanh 10 carries, 46 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.60 0.23 2.34 60% 3.0%
Hassan Hall 14 carries, 49 yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 3.50 0.14 2.00 43% 16.0%
Jamie Felix 7 carries, 36 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 5.14 -0.03 -0.21 43% 1.0%
Zach Gibson 2 carries, 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.50 -0.16 -0.32 50% -1.0%
Dontae Smith 12 carries, 22 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.83 -0.50 -5.96 25% -7.0%
Pass targets
Hassan Hall 4 catches (4 targets), 57 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 14.25 1.63 6.51 100% 11.0%
Malik Rutherford 6 catches (7 targets), 68 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.33 0.67 4.66 71% 4.0%
Dontae Smith 2 catches (2 targets), 32 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 16.00 1.17 2.34 100% 3.0%
Jamie Felix 1 catch (3 targets), 17 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 17.00 0.05 0.15 33% 0.0%
Malachi Carter 2 catches (3 targets), 13 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.50 -0.11 -0.32 67% 2.0%
Luke Benson 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.82 -0.82 0% -4.0%
Dylan Leonard 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.30 -2.61 0% -4.0%

North Carolina [show/hide]

ESPN team id 153
Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Drake Maye 16/30, 214 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, 6 Scks, 17.5 xQBR, 0.27 DETMER 5.94 -0.40 -14.43 31% -14.0%
Rush attempts
Elijah Green 10 carries, 120 yds, 2 TD, 1 Fum (0 lost) 12.00 0.36 3.57 50% 2.0%
Omarion Hampton 5 carries, 35 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.00 0.54 2.68 60% 1.0%
Drake Maye 8 carries, 46 yds, 0 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 5.75 0.24 1.89 50% 5.0%
D.J. Jones 4 carries, 31 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.75 -0.08 -0.31 75% 1.0%
Pass targets
Bryson Nesbit 4 catches (6 targets), 85 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 21.25 1.05 6.33 67% 6.0%
Gavin Blackwell 2 catches (3 targets), 54 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 27.00 0.91 2.74 67% 5.0%
George Pettaway 1 catch (1 target), 11 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.00 0.33 0.33 100% 0.0%
Kobe Paysour 0 catches (1 target), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.55 -0.55 0% 0.0%
Josh Downs 3 catches (5 targets), 31 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 10.33 -0.32 -1.59 40% 13.0%
Kamari Morales 2 catches (5 targets), 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 -0.33 -1.67 40% -6.0%
D.J. Jones 1 catch (2 targets), 1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 1.00 -0.98 -1.96 0% -3.0%
J.J. Jones 1 catch (2 targets), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 -1.07 -2.13 0% -4.0%
Elijah Green 2 catches (3 targets), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 2.50 -1.18 -3.53 0% -2.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 10:56 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 20) Elijah Green run for 80 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) - GT 0, UNC 7 6.23 89.4% 6.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNC 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.77 = 6.23

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.77)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.4%

Win Probability (After): 95.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:15 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 14 at GT 23) Drake Maye pass intercepted - GT 14, UNC 17 -3.95 88.8% -4.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 81

Started Drive at: UNC 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.45 - 3.50 = -3.95

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.50)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.55)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.8%

Win Probability (After): 84.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:27 ESPN team id 59 (4th & 10 at UNC 28) Gavin Stewart 45 yd FG MISSED - GT 0, UNC 7 -3.48 5.1% -1.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 72

Started Drive at: GT 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.45 - 1.03 = -3.48

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.97)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.45)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.1%

Win Probability (After): 4.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 2:26 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at UNC 41) Zach Gibson pass complete to Hassan Hall for 36 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST down - GT 0, UNC 17 3.27 4.0% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 5

Started Drive at: GT 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.51 - 2.23 = 3.27

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-14.77)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-11.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.0%

Win Probability (After): 5.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:03 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 9 at GT 43) Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 25 yds to the GTech 18 for a 1ST down - GT 21, UNC 17 3.09 55.3% 16.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 18

Started Drive at: UNC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.69 - 1.60 = 3.09

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.40)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.3%

Win Probability (After): 71.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 9:18 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 9 at GT 26) Taisun Phommachanh pass intercepted - GT 0, UNC 10 -3.08 4.6% -1.7%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 39

Started Drive at: GT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.82 - -0.75 = -3.08

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.75)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.82)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.6%

Win Probability (After): 2.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:10 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 11 at GT 19) Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh Downs - GT 21, UNC 17 -3.00 47.9% 2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 81

Started Drive at: UNC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.17 - 1.82 = -3.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.18)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.17)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.9%

Win Probability (After): 50.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 11:08 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & Goal at UNC 6) Hassan Hall run for 6 yds for a TD, (Gavin Stewart KICK) - GT 21, UNC 17 2.99 31.5% 12.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.01 = 2.99

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.01)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.5%

Win Probability (After): 44.3%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 5 at GT 30) Zach Gibson pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 21 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST down - GT 0, UNC 0 2.89 5.8% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 49

Started Drive at: GT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.90 - 0.01 = 2.89

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.8%

Win Probability (After): 7.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:51 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 2 at GT 6) Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the GTech 5 - GT 0, UNC 10 -2.69 96.8% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 95

Started Drive at: GT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.57 - 3.26 = -2.69

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.26)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.57)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.8%

Win Probability (After): 95.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 9:03 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 9 at GT 43) Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 25 yds to the GTech 18 for a 1ST down - GT 21, UNC 17 3.09 55.3% 16.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 18

Started Drive at: UNC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.69 - 1.60 = 3.09

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.40)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.3%

Win Probability (After): 71.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:08 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & Goal at UNC 6) Hassan Hall run for 6 yds for a TD, (Gavin Stewart KICK) - GT 21, UNC 17 2.99 31.5% 12.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.01 = 2.99

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.01)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.5%

Win Probability (After): 44.3%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 3 at GT 40) Malachi Carter run for 40 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST down - GT 14, UNC 17 2.57 22.2% 10.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 20

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.53 - 1.95 = 2.57

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.05)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.2%

Win Probability (After): 32.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:10 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 9 at GT 32) Hassan Hall run for 9 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST down - GT 21, UNC 17 1.36 79.3% 8.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 59

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - 0.45 = 1.36

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.45)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.3%

Win Probability (After): 88.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:10 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 4 at GT 25) Zach Gibson pass complete to Hassan Hall for 6 yds to the GTech 31 for a 1ST down - GT 21, UNC 17 1.13 65.2% 8.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.34 - 0.22 = 1.13

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.22)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.2%

Win Probability (After): 73.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:03 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at GT 18) Drake Maye sacked by D'Quan Douse for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 19 - GT 21, UNC 17 -1.03 71.5% -7.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 19

Started Drive at: UNC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.67 - 4.69 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.69)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.5%

Win Probability (After): 64.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:03 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 1 at GT 47) Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the GTech 44 for a 1ST down - GT 21, UNC 17 2.08 52.3% 6.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 44

Started Drive at: UNC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.01 - 0.93 = 2.08

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.07)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.3%

Win Probability (After): 59.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:56 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 20) Elijah Green run for 80 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) - GT 0, UNC 7 6.23 89.4% 6.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNC 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.77 = 6.23

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.77)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.4%

Win Probability (After): 95.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:03 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at GT 44) Drake Maye sacked by Keion White for a loss of 11 yards to the NCaro 45 - GT 21, UNC 17 -1.99 59.2% -6.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 55

Started Drive at: UNC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 3.01 = -1.99

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.99)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.2%

Win Probability (After): 53.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 12 at GT 49) Z. Gibson takes a knee - GT 21, UNC 17 0.33 94.3% 5.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 53

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.54 - 0.21 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.21)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.3%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 10:56 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 20) Elijah Green run for 80 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) - GT 0, UNC 7 6.23 89.4% 6.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNC 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.77 = 6.23

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.77)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.4%

Win Probability (After): 95.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:51 ESPN team id 153 (4th & Goal at GT 14) Noah Burnette 31 yd FG GOOD - GT 0, UNC 10 0.36 93.9% 1.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 65

Started Drive at: UNC 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.64 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.64)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.9%

Win Probability (After): 95.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 3:13 ESPN team id 153 (1st & Goal at GT 1) Elijah Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) - GT 0, UNC 17 0.71 96.9% 1.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNC 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.29 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 10 (16.29)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.9%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:48 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & Goal at UNC 2) Dontae Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Gavin Stewart KICK) - GT 7, UNC 17 1.45 6.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: GT 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.55 = 1.45

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-11.45)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.0%

Win Probability (After): 6.0%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 7:31 ESPN team id 59 (1st & Goal at UNC 4) Taisun Phommachanh run for 4 yds for a TD, (Gavin Stewart KICK) - GT 14, UNC 17 1.26 12.7% 3.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: GT 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.74 = 1.26

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-4.26)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.7%

Win Probability (After): 16.3%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:08 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & Goal at UNC 6) Hassan Hall run for 6 yds for a TD, (Gavin Stewart KICK) - GT 21, UNC 17 2.99 31.5% 12.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.01 = 2.99

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.01)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.5%

Win Probability (After): 44.3%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 59 (Kickoff at GT 35) Noah Burnette kickoff for 63 yds - GT 0, UNC 0 0.00 5.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: GT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 5.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at GT 25) Dontae Smith run for 2 yds to the GTech 27 - GT 0, UNC 0 -0.54 6.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: GT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.32 - 0.86 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.3%

Win Probability (After): 6.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 8 at GT 27) Dontae Smith run for 3 yds to the GTech 30 - GT 0, UNC 0 -0.31 6.2% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 70

Started Drive at: GT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 0.32 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.32)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.2%

Win Probability (After): 5.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 5 at GT 30) Zach Gibson pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 21 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST down - GT 0, UNC 0 2.89 5.8% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 49

Started Drive at: GT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.90 - 0.01 = 2.89

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.01)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.8%

Win Probability (After): 7.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at UNC 49) Dontae Smith run for 6 yds to the NCaro 43 - GT 0, UNC 0 0.20 7.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 43

Started Drive at: GT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.10 - 2.90 = 0.20

Score Difference (Before): 0 (2.90)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.4%

Win Probability (After): 7.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 4 at UNC 43) Dontae Smith run for 2 yds to the NCaro 45 - GT 0, UNC 0 -1.46 7.4% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 45

Started Drive at: GT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.64 - 3.10 = -1.46

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.10)

Score Difference (End): 0 (1.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.4%

Win Probability (After): 6.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 6 at UNC 45) Dontae Smith run for no gain to the NCaro 45 - GT 0, UNC 0 -2.21 6.2% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 45

Started Drive at: GT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.57 - 1.64 = -2.21

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.2%

Win Probability (After): 5.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:08 ESPN team id 59 (4th & 6 at UNC 45) David Shanahan punt for 45 yds for a touchback - GT 0, UNC 0 -0.22 8.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 80

Started Drive at: GT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.54 - -0.32 = -0.22

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.32)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.54)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: GT 0, UNC 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.6%

Win Probability (After): 8.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:56 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 20) Elijah Green run for 80 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) - GT 0, UNC 7 6.23 89.4% 6.4%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNC 20

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 0.77 = 6.23

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.77)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 80 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.4%

Win Probability (After): 95.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:49 ESPN team id 59 (Kickoff at GT 35) Noah Burnette kickoff for 59 yds , Hassan Hall return for 34 yds to the GTech 40 - GT 0, UNC 7 0.18 3.8% 0.1%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 60

Started Drive at: GT 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - -0.05 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.05)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.8%

Win Probability (After): 3.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:49 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at GT 40) Taisun Phommachanh run for 1 yd to the GTech 39 - GT 0, UNC 7 -1.05 4.4% -0.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 61

Started Drive at: GT 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.18 - 1.23 = -1.05

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.77)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.4%

Win Probability (After): 3.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:49 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 11 at GT 39) Jamie Felix run for 7 yds to the GTech 46 - GT 0, UNC 7 0.51 3.8% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 54

Started Drive at: GT 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.69 - 0.18 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.82)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.8%

Win Probability (After): 4.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:49 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 4 at GT 46) Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 13 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST down - GT 0, UNC 7 1.99 4.0% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 41

Started Drive at: GT 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.68 - 0.69 = 1.99

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.31)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.0%

Win Probability (After): 4.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:49 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at UNC 41) Jamie Felix run for 5 yds to the NCaro 36 - GT 0, UNC 7 0.07 4.9% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 36

Started Drive at: GT 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.75 - 2.68 = 0.07

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.32)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.9%

Win Probability (After): 4.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:49 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 5 at UNC 36) Taisun Phommachanh run for 8 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST down - GT 0, UNC 7 0.98 4.8% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 36 -> 28

Started Drive at: GT 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.73 - 2.75 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.25)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.8%

Win Probability (After): 5.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:49 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at UNC 28) Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Jamie Felix - GT 0, UNC 7 -0.62 5.2% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 28

Started Drive at: GT 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.11 - 3.73 = -0.62

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.27)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-3.89)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.2%

Win Probability (After): 4.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:49 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 10 at UNC 28) Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Malik Rutherford for no gain to the NCaro 28 - GT 0, UNC 7 -0.84 4.9% -0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 28

Started Drive at: GT 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.27 - 3.11 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-3.89)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-4.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.9%

Win Probability (After): 4.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:49 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 10 at UNC 28) Taisun Phommachanh pass incomplete to Malachi Carter - GT 0, UNC 7 -1.25 4.4% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 28

Started Drive at: GT 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 2.27 = -1.25

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-4.73)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-5.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.4%

Win Probability (After): 3.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:27 ESPN team id 59 (4th & 10 at UNC 28) Gavin Stewart 45 yd FG MISSED - GT 0, UNC 7 -3.48 5.1% -1.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Missed

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 28 -> 72

Started Drive at: GT 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.45 - 1.03 = -3.48

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-5.97)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.45)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.1%

Win Probability (After): 4.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 6:27 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 28) Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 33 yds to the GTech 39 for a 1ST down - GT 0, UNC 7 1.73 96.2% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 39

Started Drive at: UNC 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.12 - 2.39 = 1.73

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.39)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:27 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at GT 39) Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the GTech 38 - GT 0, UNC 7 -0.58 96.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 38

Started Drive at: UNC 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.54 - 4.12 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.12)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.9%

Win Probability (After): 96.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:27 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 9 at GT 38) Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari Morales - GT 0, UNC 7 -0.94 96.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 38

Started Drive at: UNC 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 3.54 = -0.94

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.54)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.8%

Win Probability (After): 96.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 6:27 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 9 at GT 38) Drake Maye sacked by Makius Scott for a loss of 5 yards to the GTech 43 - GT 0, UNC 7 -2.32 96.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 43

Started Drive at: UNC 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.28 - 2.59 = -2.32

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.59)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.6%

Win Probability (After): 96.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:46 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 14 at GT 43) Ben Kiernan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jamal Haynes at the GTech 10 - GT 0, UNC 7 0.51 95.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 90

Started Drive at: UNC 28

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.75 - 0.24 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): 7 (7.24)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.75)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.3%

Win Probability (After): 95.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 4:46 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at GT 10) Hassan Hall run for 1 yd to the GTech 11 - GT 0, UNC 7 -0.60 5.3% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 89

Started Drive at: GT 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.39 - -0.79 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.79)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-8.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.3%

Win Probability (After): 5.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:46 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 9 at GT 11) Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the GTech 13 - GT 0, UNC 7 -0.74 5.1% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 87

Started Drive at: GT 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.13 - -1.39 = -0.74

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.39)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.1%

Win Probability (After): 4.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 4:46 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 7 at GT 13) Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Malik Rutherford - GT 0, UNC 7 -1.05 4.8% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 87

Started Drive at: GT 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.18 - -2.13 = -1.05

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-9.13)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-10.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.8%

Win Probability (After): 4.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:08 ESPN team id 59 (4th & 7 at GT 13) David Shanahan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 41 - GT 0, UNC 7 0.12 4.7% -0.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 59

Started Drive at: GT 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.06 - -3.18 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-10.18)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.06)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.7%

Win Probability (After): 3.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 3:08 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 41) Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 1 yd to the NCaro 42 - GT 0, UNC 7 -0.52 95.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 58

Started Drive at: UNC 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.60 - 3.12 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.12)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.8%

Win Probability (After): 95.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:08 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 9 at UNC 42) Elijah Green run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line - GT 0, UNC 7 0.50 95.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 50

Started Drive at: UNC 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.10 - 2.60 = 0.50

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.60)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.7%

Win Probability (After): 95.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:08 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 1 at 50) Drake Maye run for 5 yds to the GTech 45 for a 1ST down - GT 0, UNC 7 0.70 95.7% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 45

Started Drive at: UNC 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.80 - 3.10 = 0.70

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.10)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:08 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at GT 45) Elijah Green run for 1 yd to the GTech 46 - GT 0, UNC 7 -0.93 96.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 46

Started Drive at: UNC 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.87 - 3.80 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.80)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.0%

Win Probability (After): 95.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:08 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 11 at GT 46) Drake Maye run for 16 yds to the GTech 30 for a 1ST down - GT 0, UNC 7 1.69 95.8% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 46 -> 30

Started Drive at: UNC 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.56 - 2.87 = 1.69

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.87)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.8%

Win Probability (After): 96.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 3:08 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at GT 30) Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kobe Paysour - GT 0, UNC 7 -0.55 96.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 30

Started Drive at: UNC 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.01 - 4.56 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.56)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.1%

Win Probability (After): 96.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:00 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 10 at GT 30) Drake Maye pass complete to Elijah Green for 1 yd to the GTech 31 - GT 0, UNC 7 -1.24 93.9% 1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 30 -> 31

Started Drive at: UNC 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.72 - 3.96 = -1.24

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.96)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.9%

Win Probability (After): 95.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 11 at GT 31) Drake Maye run for 12 yds to the GTech 19 for a 1ST down - GT 0, UNC 7 2.40 94.2% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 31 -> 19

Started Drive at: UNC 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.06 - 2.66 = 2.40

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.66)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 44 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.2%

Win Probability (After): 95.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at GT 19) Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the GTech 20 - GT 0, UNC 7 -0.92 95.5% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 20

Started Drive at: UNC 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.14 - 5.06 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.06)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.5%

Win Probability (After): 95.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 11 at GT 20) D.J. Jones run for 5 yds to the GTech 15 - GT 0, UNC 7 0.04 95.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 15

Started Drive at: UNC 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.18 - 4.14 = 0.04

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.14)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.2%

Win Probability (After): 95.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 6 at GT 15) Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 5 yds to the GTech 10 - GT 0, UNC 7 0.10 95.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 10

Started Drive at: UNC 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.29 - 4.18 = 0.10

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.18)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.2%

Win Probability (After): 95.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 1 at GT 10) Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the GTech 8 for a 1ST down - GT 0, UNC 7 1.39 95.0% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 8

Started Drive at: UNC 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.68 - 4.29 = 1.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.29)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.0%

Win Probability (After): 95.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 153 (1st & Goal at GT 8) Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson Nesbit - GT 0, UNC 7 -0.64 95.6% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 8

Started Drive at: UNC 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.03 - 5.68 = -0.64

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.68)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 13 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.6%

Win Probability (After): 95.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & Goal at GT 8) Drake Maye sacked by Keion White for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 10 - GT 0, UNC 7 -1.00 95.5% -0.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 10

Started Drive at: UNC 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.03 - 5.03 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.03)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 14 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.5%

Win Probability (After): 95.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 15:00 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & Goal at GT 10) Drake Maye pass complete to Elijah Green for 4 yds to the GTech 14 - GT 0, UNC 7 -1.37 95.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 14

Started Drive at: UNC 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.66 - 4.03 = -1.37

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.03)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 7

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.0%

Win Probability (After): 94.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (7)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:51 ESPN team id 153 (4th & Goal at GT 14) Noah Burnette 31 yd FG GOOD - GT 0, UNC 10 0.36 93.9% 1.1%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 65

Started Drive at: UNC 41

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.64 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.64)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 15 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.9%

Win Probability (After): 95.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 7 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 10:51 ESPN team id 59 (Kickoff at GT 35) Noah Burnette kickoff for 65 yds - GT 0, UNC 10 0.00 6.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: GT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.47 - 0.47 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.53)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.7%

Win Probability (After): 6.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:51 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at GT 25) Dontae Smith run for no gain to the GTech 25 - GT 0, UNC 10 -0.53 6.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: GT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.47 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.53)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.7%

Win Probability (After): 6.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:51 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 10 at GT 25) Dontae Smith run for 1 yd to the GTech 26 - GT 0, UNC 10 -0.81 6.4% -0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: GT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.87 - -0.06 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.06)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 5.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:18 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 9 at GT 26) Taisun Phommachanh pass intercepted - GT 0, UNC 10 -3.08 4.6% -1.7%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 39

Started Drive at: GT 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.82 - -0.75 = -3.08

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.75)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.82)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.6%

Win Probability (After): 2.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:18 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at GT 39) Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the GTech 35 - GT 0, UNC 10 -0.16 96.8% -0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 35

Started Drive at: GT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.58 - 3.75 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.75)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.8%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:18 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 6 at GT 35) Omarion Hampton run for 21 yds to the GTech 14 for a 1ST down - GT 0, UNC 10 1.46 96.7% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 35 -> 14

Started Drive at: GT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.04 - 3.58 = 1.46

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.58)

Score Difference (End): 10 (15.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 97.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:18 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at GT 14) Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the GTech 10 - GT 0, UNC 10 -0.18 97.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 10

Started Drive at: GT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.86 - 5.04 = -0.18

Score Difference (Before): 10 (15.04)

Score Difference (End): 10 (14.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.4%

Win Probability (After): 97.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:18 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 6 at GT 10) Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the GTech 6 - GT 0, UNC 10 0.17 97.4% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 6

Started Drive at: GT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.03 - 4.86 = 0.17

Score Difference (Before): 10 (14.86)

Score Difference (End): 10 (15.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.4%

Win Probability (After): 97.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:18 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 2 at GT 6) Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. Jones - GT 0, UNC 10 -1.66 97.4% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: GT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.37 - 5.03 = -1.66

Score Difference (Before): 10 (15.03)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.4%

Win Probability (After): 97.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:51 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 2 at GT 6) Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the GTech 5 - GT 0, UNC 10 -2.69 96.8% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 95

Started Drive at: GT 39

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.57 - 3.26 = -2.69

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.26)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.57)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.8%

Win Probability (After): 95.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 6:51 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at GT 6) Jamie Felix run for 2 yds to the GTech 8 - GT 0, UNC 10 -0.49 5.7% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 94 -> 92

Started Drive at: GT 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.95 - -0.46 = -0.49

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.46)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.7%

Win Probability (After): 5.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:51 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 8 at GT 8) Zach Gibson pass complete to Jamie Felix for 17 yds to the GTech 25 for a 1ST down - GT 0, UNC 10 1.54 5.2% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 92 -> 75

Started Drive at: GT 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.59 - -0.95 = 1.54

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.95)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.2%

Win Probability (After): 7.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:51 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at GT 25) Jamie Felix run for 2 yds to the GTech 27 - GT 0, UNC 10 -0.45 7.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: GT 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.13 - 0.59 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.41)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.0%

Win Probability (After): 6.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:51 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 8 at GT 27) Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Dylan Leonard - GT 0, UNC 10 -0.85 6.5% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: GT 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.71 - 0.13 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.87)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.5%

Win Probability (After): 5.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 6:51 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 8 at GT 27) Jamie Felix run for 2 yds to the GTech 29 - GT 0, UNC 10 -0.87 5.2% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 71

Started Drive at: GT 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.59 - -0.71 = -0.87

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.71)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-11.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.2%

Win Probability (After): 4.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:08 ESPN team id 59 (4th & 6 at GT 29) David Shanahan punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 45 - GT 0, UNC 10 -1.44 4.7% -0.9%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 55

Started Drive at: GT 6

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.62 - -1.18 = -1.44

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-11.18)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.62)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.7%

Win Probability (After): 3.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 4:08 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 45) Drake Maye pass incomplete to Gavin Blackwell - GT 0, UNC 10 -0.46 96.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 55

Started Drive at: UNC 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.67 - 2.12 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.12)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:08 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 10 at UNC 45) Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 36 yds to the GTech 19 for a 1ST down - GT 0, UNC 10 2.56 96.6% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 19

Started Drive at: UNC 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.22 - 1.67 = 2.56

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.67)

Score Difference (End): 10 (14.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.6%

Win Probability (After): 97.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:08 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at GT 19) Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 18 yds to the GTech 1 for a 1ST down - GT 0, UNC 10 2.10 97.4% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 1

Started Drive at: UNC 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.32 - 4.22 = 2.10

Score Difference (Before): 10 (14.22)

Score Difference (End): 10 (16.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 10

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.4%

Win Probability (After): 97.6%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (10)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:13 ESPN team id 153 (1st & Goal at GT 1) Elijah Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) - GT 0, UNC 17 0.71 96.9% 1.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: UNC 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.29 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): 10 (16.29)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 55 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.9%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 10 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:08 ESPN team id 59 (Kickoff at GT 35) Noah Burnette kickoff for 65 yds , Hassan Hall return for 16 yds to the GTech 16 - GT 0, UNC 17 -0.97 3.0% -0.3%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 84

Started Drive at: GT 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.32 - 0.65 = -0.97

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.35)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.0%

Win Probability (After): 2.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:08 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at GT 16) Taisun Phommachanh run for 4 yds to the GTech 20 - GT 0, UNC 17 -0.08 2.9% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 80

Started Drive at: GT 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 0.29 = -0.08

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.71)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-16.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.9%

Win Probability (After): 2.8%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:08 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 6 at GT 20) Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the GTech 23 - GT 0, UNC 17 -0.31 2.8% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 77

Started Drive at: GT 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - 0.20 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.80)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.8%

Win Probability (After): 2.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:26 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 3 at GT 23) Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 02:26 - GT 0, UNC 17 0.00 2.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77

Started Drive at: GT 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - -0.10 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.10)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-17.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.5%

Win Probability (After): 2.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:26 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 3 at GT 23) Zach Gibson pass complete to Hassan Hall for 3 yds to the GTech 26 for a 1ST down - GT 0, UNC 17 0.94 2.5% 0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 74

Started Drive at: GT 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.92 - -0.02 = 0.94

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-17.02)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-16.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 10 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.5%

Win Probability (After): 3.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:26 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at GT 26) Hassan Hall run for 1 yd to the GTech 27 - GT 0, UNC 17 -0.52 3.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 73

Started Drive at: GT 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.40 - 0.92 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.08)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-16.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.0%

Win Probability (After): 2.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:26 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 9 at GT 27) Zach Gibson pass complete to Hassan Hall for 12 yds to the GTech 39 for a 1ST down - GT 0, UNC 17 1.17 2.9% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 61

Started Drive at: GT 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.57 - 0.40 = 1.17

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-16.60)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-15.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 2.9%

Win Probability (After): 3.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:26 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at GT 39) Zach Gibson pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 20 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST down - GT 0, UNC 17 0.66 3.3% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 41

Started Drive at: GT 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.23 - 1.57 = 0.66

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-15.43)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-14.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 43 yards

Win Probability (Before): 3.3%

Win Probability (After): 4.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:26 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at UNC 41) Zach Gibson pass complete to Hassan Hall for 36 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST down - GT 0, UNC 17 3.27 4.0% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 5

Started Drive at: GT 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.51 - 2.23 = 3.27

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-14.77)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-11.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.0%

Win Probability (After): 5.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 2:26 ESPN team id 59 (1st & Goal at UNC 5) Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the NCaro 2 - GT 0, UNC 17 0.26 5.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 2

Started Drive at: GT 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.76 - 5.51 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-11.49)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-11.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.4%

Win Probability (After): 5.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:52 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & Goal at UNC 2) Timeout GEORGIA TECH, clock 00:52 - GT 0, UNC 17 0.00 6.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 2

Started Drive at: GT 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.76 - 5.76 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-11.24)

Score Difference (End): -17 (-11.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 82 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 6.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:48 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & Goal at UNC 2) Dontae Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Gavin Stewart KICK) - GT 7, UNC 17 1.45 6.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 99

Started Drive at: GT 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.55 = 1.45

Score Difference (Before): -17 (-11.45)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.0%

Win Probability (After): 6.0%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:44 ESPN team id 153 (Kickoff at UNC 35) Gavin Stewart kickoff for 64 yds , George Pettaway return for 19 yds to the UNC 46 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Sirad Bryant) to the NCaro 35 - GT 0, UNC 17 0.16 94.9% 3.4%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 65

Started Drive at: GT 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 0.48 = 0.16

Score Difference (Before): 10 (2.69)

Score Difference (End): 17 (17.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 84 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.9%

Win Probability (After): 98.3%

Away Score: 7 (0) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:44 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 35) Drake Maye pass complete to George Pettaway for 11 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST down - GT 0, UNC 17 0.33 98.3% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 54

Started Drive at: UNC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.08 - 0.75 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): 17 (17.75)

Score Difference (End): 17 (18.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 0, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.3%

Win Probability (After): 98.4%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:44 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 46) Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 9 yds to the UNC 45 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the NCaro 40 - GT 7, UNC 17 -0.47 98.4% -3.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 60

Started Drive at: UNC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.62 - 1.08 = -0.47

Score Difference (Before): 17 (18.08)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 98.4%

Win Probability (After): 95.1%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:44 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 16 at UNC 40) Drake Maye pass incomplete - GT 7, UNC 17 -0.15 95.1% -0.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: UNC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - 0.62 = -0.15

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.62)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.1%

Win Probability (After): 94.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:44 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 16 at UNC 40) Drake Maye sacked by Keion White for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 34 - GT 7, UNC 17 -0.65 94.8% -0.9%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 66

Started Drive at: UNC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - 0.46 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.46)

Score Difference (End): 10 (9.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.8%

Win Probability (After): 93.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:16 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 22 at UNC 34) Timeout GEORGIA TECH, clock 00:16 - GT 7, UNC 17 0.00 94.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 66

Started Drive at: UNC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - -0.19 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 10 (9.81)

Score Difference (End): 10 (9.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.2%

Win Probability (After): 94.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:03 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 22 at UNC 34) Ben Kiernan punt for 55 yds - GT 7, UNC 17 -0.04 94.4% -0.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 89

Started Drive at: UNC 35

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.02 - 0.02 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.02)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.98)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.4%

Win Probability (After): 94.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at GT 11) Z. Gibson takes a knee - GT 7, UNC 17 0.03 5.5% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 89 -> 91

Started Drive at: GT 11

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.04 - -0.03 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.03)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.5%

Win Probability (After): 5.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 14:52 ESPN team id 153 (Kickoff at UNC 35) Gavin Stewart kickoff for 65 yds , George Pettaway return for 31 yds to the NCaro 31 - GT 7, UNC 17 -0.83 97.2% -0.7%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 69

Started Drive at: UNC 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.23 - 2.06 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.06)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:52 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 31) Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 6 yds to the NCaro 37 - GT 7, UNC 17 0.19 97.2% 0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 63

Started Drive at: UNC 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.03 - 2.84 = 0.19

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.84)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.2%

Win Probability (After): 97.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:52 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 4 at UNC 37) Elijah Green run for 6 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST down - GT 7, UNC 17 0.32 97.3% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 57

Started Drive at: UNC 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.35 - 3.03 = 0.32

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.03)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.3%

Win Probability (After): 97.3%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:52 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 43) Elijah Green run for 13 yds to the NCaro 30 Elijah Green fumbled, recovered by NCaro Elijah Green - GT 7, UNC 17 -1.53 97.3% -0.3%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 70

Started Drive at: UNC 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.82 - 3.35 = -1.53

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.35)

Score Difference (End): 10 (11.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 25 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.3%

Win Probability (After): 97.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:52 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 23 at UNC 30) Drake Maye pass complete to D.J. Jones for 1 yd to the NCaro 29 - GT 7, UNC 17 -1.01 97.1% -0.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 71

Started Drive at: UNC 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.80 - 1.82 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): 10 (11.82)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.1%

Win Probability (After): 96.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:38 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 24 at UNC 29) Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson Nesbit - GT 7, UNC 17 -0.50 96.0% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 71

Started Drive at: UNC 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.14 - 0.37 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 10 (10.37)

Score Difference (End): 10 (9.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.0%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:30 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 24 at UNC 29) Ben Kiernan punt for 39 yds , Jamal Haynes returns for no gain to the GTech 32 - GT 7, UNC 17 -0.16 95.9% -2.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 68

Started Drive at: UNC 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.79 - -0.63 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): 10 (9.37)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.21)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 95.9%

Win Probability (After): 93.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 12:30 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at GT 32) Zach Gibson pass complete to Dontae Smith for 8 yds to the GTech 40 - GT 7, UNC 17 0.62 6.4% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 60

Started Drive at: GT 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.42 - 0.80 = 0.62

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.20)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.58)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 6.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:30 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 2 at GT 40) Dontae Smith run for no gain to the GTech 40 - GT 7, UNC 17 -0.83 6.9% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: GT 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.59 - 1.42 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.58)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-9.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.9%

Win Probability (After): 6.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:30 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 2 at GT 40) Dontae Smith run for 3 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST down - GT 7, UNC 17 0.96 6.4% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 57

Started Drive at: GT 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.55 - 0.59 = 0.96

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-9.41)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.4%

Win Probability (After): 6.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:30 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at GT 43) Zach Gibson run for 6 yds to the GTech 49 - GT 7, UNC 17 0.23 6.9% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 51

Started Drive at: GT 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.78 - 1.55 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.45)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-8.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.9%

Win Probability (After): 7.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:30 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 4 at GT 49) Jamie Felix run for 13 yds to the NCaro 38 Jamie Felix fumbled, recovered by GTech Malachi Carter for a 1ST down - GT 7, UNC 17 1.07 7.1% 1.9%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 38

Started Drive at: GT 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.85 - 1.78 = 1.07

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-8.22)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-7.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 7.1%

Win Probability (After): 9.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:30 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at UNC 38) Zach Gibson pass complete to Dontae Smith for 24 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST down - GT 7, UNC 17 1.72 9.0% 2.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 38 -> 14

Started Drive at: GT 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.57 - 2.85 = 1.72

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-7.15)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.0%

Win Probability (After): 11.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:30 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at UNC 14) Taisun Phommachanh run for 4 yds to the NCaro 10 - GT 7, UNC 17 -0.21 11.8% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 10

Started Drive at: GT 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.36 - 4.57 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.43)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-5.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.8%

Win Probability (After): 11.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:30 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 6 at UNC 10) Taisun Phommachanh run for 6 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST down - GT 7, UNC 17 1.36 11.6% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 4

Started Drive at: GT 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.72 - 4.36 = 1.36

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-5.64)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-4.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 7, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.6%

Win Probability (After): 12.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:31 ESPN team id 59 (1st & Goal at UNC 4) Taisun Phommachanh run for 4 yds for a TD, (Gavin Stewart KICK) - GT 14, UNC 17 1.26 12.7% 3.5%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 99

Started Drive at: GT 32

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.74 = 1.26

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-4.26)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.7%

Win Probability (After): 16.3%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:31 ESPN team id 153 (Kickoff at UNC 35) Gavin Stewart kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - GT 14, UNC 17 0.00 84.8% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.31 - 1.31 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.31)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.8%

Win Probability (After): 84.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:31 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 25) Elijah Green run for 7 yds to the NCaro 32 - GT 14, UNC 17 0.56 84.8% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 68

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.88 - 1.31 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.31)

Score Difference (End): 3 (4.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.8%

Win Probability (After): 85.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:47 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 3 at UNC 32) No Huddle-Shotgun Green,Elijah rush middle for 68 yards gain to the GT 00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 06:47 PENALTY UNC Holding (Nesbit,Bryson) 10 yards from UNC32 to UNC22. NO PLAY. - GT 14, UNC 17 -1.74 85.1% -3.0%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 78

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.24 - 1.98 = -1.74

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.98)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.1%

Win Probability (After): 82.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:47 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 13 at UNC 22) Drake Maye sacked by Jason Moore for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 16 - GT 14, UNC 17 -1.31 82.3% -2.1%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 84

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.94 - 0.36 = -1.31

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.36)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.3%

Win Probability (After): 80.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:47 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 19 at UNC 16) Drake Maye run for 7 yds to the NCaro 23 - GT 14, UNC 17 -0.78 80.2% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 77

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.73 - -0.94 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.06)

Score Difference (End): 3 (1.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.2%

Win Probability (After): 78.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:20 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 12 at UNC 23) Ben Kiernan punt for 60 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GTech 17 - GT 14, UNC 17 1.28 79.7% 2.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 83

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.44 - -1.73 = 1.28

Score Difference (Before): 3 (1.27)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.56)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.7%

Win Probability (After): 82.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 5:20 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at GT 17) Zach Gibson pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 6 yds to the GTech 23 - GT 14, UNC 17 0.03 17.9% 0.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 77

Started Drive at: GT 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - 0.43 = 0.03

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.57)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.9%

Win Probability (After): 18.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:20 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 4 at GT 23) Zach Gibson pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 8 yds to the GTech 31 for a 1ST down - GT 14, UNC 17 0.98 18.4% 1.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 69

Started Drive at: GT 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.44 - 0.46 = 0.98

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.54)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.4%

Win Probability (After): 19.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:20 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at GT 31) Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Jamie Felix - GT 14, UNC 17 -0.77 19.8% -1.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: GT 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.67 - 1.44 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.56)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.8%

Win Probability (After): 18.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:20 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 10 at GT 31) Jamie Felix run for 5 yds to the GTech 36 - GT 14, UNC 17 -0.04 18.0% 0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 64

Started Drive at: GT 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 0.67 = -0.04

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.33)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.0%

Win Probability (After): 18.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:25 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 5 at GT 36) Timeout GEORGIA TECH, clock 03:25 - GT 14, UNC 17 0.00 19.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: GT 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.63 - 0.63 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.37)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.1%

Win Probability (After): 19.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:25 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 5 at GT 36) Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Dylan Leonard - GT 14, UNC 17 -1.76 16.5% -2.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: GT 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.15 - 0.62 = -1.76

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.38)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-4.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.5%

Win Probability (After): 14.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 3:10 ESPN team id 59 (4th & 5 at GT 36) David Shanahan punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 34 , Josh Downs returns for 3 yds to the NCaro 34 - GT 14, UNC 17 -0.96 13.8% 0.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 66

Started Drive at: GT 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.12 - -1.15 = -0.96

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-4.15)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.12)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.8%

Win Probability (After): 14.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 3:10 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 34) D.J. Jones run for 17 yds to the GTech 49 for a 1ST down - GT 14, UNC 17 0.95 86.0% 2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 49

Started Drive at: UNC 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.19 - 2.24 = 0.95

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.24)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.0%

Win Probability (After): 88.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:10 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at GT 49) D.J. Jones run for 5 yds to the GTech 44 - GT 14, UNC 17 0.01 88.2% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 44

Started Drive at: UNC 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.20 - 3.19 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.19)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.2%

Win Probability (After): 88.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:10 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 5 at GT 44) Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari Morales - GT 14, UNC 17 -1.01 88.5% -2.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 44

Started Drive at: UNC 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.19 - 3.20 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.20)

Score Difference (End): 3 (5.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.5%

Win Probability (After): 85.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:10 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 5 at GT 44) Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 25 yds to the GTech 19 for a 1ST down - GT 14, UNC 17 2.62 85.8% 4.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 19

Started Drive at: UNC 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.81 - 2.19 = 2.62

Score Difference (Before): 3 (5.19)

Score Difference (End): 3 (7.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 47 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.8%

Win Probability (After): 89.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:10 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at GT 19) D.J. Jones run for 4 yds to the GTech 23 - GT 14, UNC 17 -1.31 89.8% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 23

Started Drive at: UNC 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.50 - 4.81 = -1.31

Score Difference (Before): 3 (7.81)

Score Difference (End): 3 (6.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.8%

Win Probability (After): 88.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:15 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 14 at GT 23) Drake Maye pass intercepted - GT 14, UNC 17 -3.95 88.8% -4.9%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 81

Started Drive at: UNC 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.45 - 3.50 = -3.95

Score Difference (Before): 3 (6.50)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-2.55)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.8%

Win Probability (After): 84.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:15 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at GT 19) Hassan Hall run for 8 yds to the GTech 27 - GT 14, UNC 17 0.52 18.6% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 73

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.05 - 0.53 = 0.52

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-2.47)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.6%

Win Probability (After): 19.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 2 at GT 27) Zach Gibson pass complete to Malachi Carter for 6 yds to the GTech 33 for a 1ST down - GT 14, UNC 17 0.51 19.1% 1.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 67

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.55 - 1.04 = 0.51

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.96)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.1%

Win Probability (After): 20.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at GT 33) Hassan Hall run for 7 yds to the GTech 40 - GT 14, UNC 17 0.41 20.2% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 60

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.95 - 1.54 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.46)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-1.05)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.2%

Win Probability (After): 22.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 3 at GT 40) Malachi Carter run for 40 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST down - GT 14, UNC 17 2.57 22.2% 10.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 20

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.53 - 1.95 = 2.57

Score Difference (Before): -3 (-1.05)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.2%

Win Probability (After): 32.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at UNC 20) Zach Gibson pass complete to Malachi Carter for 7 yds to the NCaro 13 - GT 14, UNC 17 0.42 32.2% 1.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 13

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.94 - 4.53 = 0.42

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.53)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.2%

Win Probability (After): 33.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 3 at UNC 13) Taisun Phommachanh run for 5 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST down - GT 14, UNC 17 0.36 33.5% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 8

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.31 - 4.94 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.94)

Score Difference (End): -3 (2.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.5%

Win Probability (After): 34.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 59 (1st & Goal at UNC 8) Hassan Hall run for 1 yd to the NCaro 9 - GT 14, UNC 17 -0.78 34.6% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 9

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.52 - 5.31 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -3 (2.31)

Score Difference (End): -3 (1.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.6%

Win Probability (After): 32.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 15:00 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & Goal at UNC 9) Zach Gibson run for 3 yds to the NCaro 6 - GT 14, UNC 17 -0.55 32.2% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 6

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.97 - 4.52 = -0.55

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.52)

Score Difference (End): -3 (0.97)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 14, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.2%

Win Probability (After): 30.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:08 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & Goal at UNC 6) Hassan Hall run for 6 yds for a TD, (Gavin Stewart KICK) - GT 21, UNC 17 2.99 31.5% 12.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 4.01 = 2.99

Score Difference (Before): -3 (1.01)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.5%

Win Probability (After): 44.3%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:08 ESPN team id 153 (Kickoff at UNC 35) Gavin Stewart kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - GT 21, UNC 17 0.00 56.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.82 - 0.82 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.18)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.18)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.4%

Win Probability (After): 56.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:08 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 25) Elijah Green run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26 - GT 21, UNC 17 -0.50 56.4% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.32 - 0.82 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.18)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.4%

Win Probability (After): 55.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:08 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 9 at UNC 26) Drake Maye pass incomplete to Elijah Green - GT 21, UNC 17 -0.92 55.4% -3.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.60 - 0.32 = -0.92

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.68)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-4.60)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.4%

Win Probability (After): 52.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 11:08 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 9 at UNC 26) Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh Downs - GT 21, UNC 17 -1.27 52.5% -5.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 74

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.87 - -0.60 = -1.27

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-4.60)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-5.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.5%

Win Probability (After): 47.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 10:21 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 9 at UNC 26) Ben Kiernan punt for 39 yds , Rodney Shelley returns for 5 yds to the GTech 40 - GT 21, UNC 17 -0.84 46.3% 1.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 60

Started Drive at: UNC 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.55 - -1.71 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-5.71)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.55)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 46.3%

Win Probability (After): 48.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:21 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at GT 40) Dontae Smith run for 2 yds to the GTech 42 - GT 21, UNC 17 -0.50 53.5% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 58

Started Drive at: GT 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.06 - 2.57 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.57)

Score Difference (End): 4 (6.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.5%

Win Probability (After): 51.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:21 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 8 at GT 42) Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Luke Benson - GT 21, UNC 17 -0.82 51.8% -4.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: GT 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.24 - 2.06 = -0.82

Score Difference (Before): 4 (6.06)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.8%

Win Probability (After): 47.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:21 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 8 at GT 42) Dontae Smith run for 1 yd to the GTech 41 - GT 21, UNC 17 -1.37 47.5% -2.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 59

Started Drive at: GT 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.13 - 1.24 = -1.37

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.24)

Score Difference (End): 4 (3.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.5%

Win Probability (After): 45.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 9:03 ESPN team id 59 (4th & 9 at GT 41) David Shanahan punt for 41 yds , Josh Downs returns for 5 yds to the NCaro 23 - GT 21, UNC 17 -0.30 45.2% -1.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 77

Started Drive at: GT 40

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.81 - -0.51 = -0.30

Score Difference (Before): 4 (3.49)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.19)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 45.2%

Win Probability (After): 43.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:03 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 23) Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 21 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST down - GT 21, UNC 17 1.47 53.3% 3.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 56

Started Drive at: UNC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.22 - 0.75 = 1.47

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.25)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.3%

Win Probability (After): 57.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:03 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at UNC 44) Elijah Green run for 3 yds to the NCaro 47 - GT 21, UNC 17 -0.39 57.2% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 53

Started Drive at: UNC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.83 - 2.22 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.78)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.2%

Win Probability (After): 56.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:03 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 7 at UNC 47) Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 6 yds to the GTech 47 - GT 21, UNC 17 0.49 56.8% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 53 -> 47

Started Drive at: UNC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.32 - 1.83 = 0.49

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.17)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.8%

Win Probability (After): 56.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:03 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 1 at GT 47) Elijah Green run for no gain to the GTech 47 - GT 21, UNC 17 -1.40 56.3% -4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 47

Started Drive at: UNC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.93 - 2.32 = -1.40

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.68)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-3.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.3%

Win Probability (After): 52.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:03 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 1 at GT 47) Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the GTech 44 for a 1ST down - GT 21, UNC 17 2.08 52.3% 6.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 44

Started Drive at: UNC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.01 - 0.93 = 2.08

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-3.07)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 52.3%

Win Probability (After): 59.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 9:03 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at GT 44) Drake Maye sacked by Keion White for a loss of 11 yards to the NCaro 45 - GT 21, UNC 17 -1.99 59.2% -6.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 44 -> 55

Started Drive at: UNC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 3.01 = -1.99

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.99)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.98)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 22 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.2%

Win Probability (After): 53.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:03 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 21 at UNC 45) Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 12 yds to the GTech 43 - GT 21, UNC 17 0.58 53.2% 2.1%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 43

Started Drive at: UNC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 1.02 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.98)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 34 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.2%

Win Probability (After): 55.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:03 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 9 at GT 43) Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 25 yds to the GTech 18 for a 1ST down - GT 21, UNC 17 3.09 55.3% 16.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 43 -> 18

Started Drive at: UNC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.69 - 1.60 = 3.09

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.40)

Score Difference (End): -4 (0.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.3%

Win Probability (After): 71.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:03 ESPN team id 153 (1st & 10 at GT 18) Drake Maye sacked by D'Quan Douse for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 19 - GT 21, UNC 17 -1.03 71.5% -7.3%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 19

Started Drive at: UNC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.67 - 4.69 = -1.03

Score Difference (Before): -4 (0.69)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-0.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.5%

Win Probability (After): 64.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:03 ESPN team id 153 (2nd & 11 at GT 19) Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari Morales - GT 21, UNC 17 -0.79 64.2% -4.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: UNC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.88 - 3.67 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-0.33)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-1.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.2%

Win Probability (After): 59.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:03 ESPN team id 153 (3rd & 11 at GT 19) Drake Maye pass incomplete to D.J. Jones - GT 21, UNC 17 -0.95 59.9% -3.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 19

Started Drive at: UNC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.93 - 2.88 = -0.95

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-1.12)

Score Difference (End): -4 (-2.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.9%

Win Probability (After): 56.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:10 ESPN team id 153 (4th & 11 at GT 19) Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh Downs - GT 21, UNC 17 -3.00 47.9% 2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 81

Started Drive at: UNC 23

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.17 - 1.82 = -3.00

Score Difference (Before): -4 (-2.18)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.17)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.9%

Win Probability (After): 50.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 4:10 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at GT 19) Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the GTech 21 - GT 21, UNC 17 -0.39 68.0% -2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 79

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.42 - 0.81 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.81)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.0%

Win Probability (After): 65.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:10 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 8 at GT 21) Hassan Hall run for 4 yds to the GTech 25 - GT 21, UNC 17 -0.20 65.6% -0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 75

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.22 - 0.42 = -0.20

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.42)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.6%

Win Probability (After): 65.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:10 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 4 at GT 25) Zach Gibson pass complete to Hassan Hall for 6 yds to the GTech 31 for a 1ST down - GT 21, UNC 17 1.13 65.2% 8.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.34 - 0.22 = 1.13

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.22)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 12 yards

Win Probability (Before): 65.2%

Win Probability (After): 73.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:10 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at GT 31) Taisun Phommachanh run for 2 yds to the GTech 33 - GT 21, UNC 17 -0.51 73.5% -4.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 67

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.83 - 1.34 = -0.51

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.34)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.5%

Win Probability (After): 69.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 4:10 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 8 at GT 33) Taisun Phommachanh run for 4 yds to the GTech 37 - GT 21, UNC 17 0.12 69.2% 3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 63

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 0.83 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.83)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.2%

Win Probability (After): 72.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:10 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 4 at GT 37) Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 02:10 - GT 21, UNC 17 0.00 78.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 63

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 0.95 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.95)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.7%

Win Probability (After): 78.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:10 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 4 at GT 37) PENALTY GT False Start 5 yards from GT 37 to GT 32. NO PLAY. - GT 21, UNC 17 -0.46 81.6% -2.3%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 68

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.45 - 0.91 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.91)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.6%

Win Probability (After): 79.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:10 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 9 at GT 32) Hassan Hall run for 9 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST down - GT 21, UNC 17 1.36 79.3% 8.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 68 -> 59

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - 0.45 = 1.36

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.45)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.3%

Win Probability (After): 88.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 2:10 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at GT 41) Hassan Hall run for 1 yd to the GTech 42 - GT 21, UNC 17 -0.39 88.2% -3.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 58

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.41 - 1.81 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.81)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.2%

Win Probability (After): 84.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:34 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 9 at GT 42) Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 01:34 - GT 21, UNC 17 0.00 90.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 58

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.41 - 1.41 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.41)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 28 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.0%

Win Probability (After): 90.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:34 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 9 at GT 42) Taisun Phommachanh run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line - GT 21, UNC 17 0.12 89.5% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 58 -> 50

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.28 - 1.16 = 0.12

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.16)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.5%

Win Probability (After): 88.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:27 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 1 at 50) Timeout NORTH CAROLINA, clock 01:27 - GT 21, UNC 17 0.00 91.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 50

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.28 - 1.28 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.28)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.5%

Win Probability (After): 91.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:27 ESPN team id 59 (3rd & 1 at 50) Hassan Hall run for 1 yd to the NCaro 49 Hassan Hall fumbled, recovered by GTech Hassan Hall for a 1ST down - GT 21, UNC 17 0.41 91.5% 2.0%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Own)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 50 -> 49

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.66 - 1.25 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.25)

Score Difference (End): 4 (5.66)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.5%

Win Probability (After): 93.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:27 ESPN team id 59 (1st & 10 at UNC 49) Z. Gibson takes a knee - GT 21, UNC 17 -0.80 93.5% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 51

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.87 - 1.66 = -0.80

Score Difference (Before): 4 (5.66)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.87)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 35 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.5%

Win Probability (After): 91.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 59 (2nd & 12 at GT 49) Z. Gibson takes a knee - GT 21, UNC 17 0.33 94.3% 5.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 53

Started Drive at: GT 19

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.54 - 0.21 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): 4 (4.21)

Score Difference (End): 4 (4.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: GT 21, UNC 17

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.3%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 17 (17)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2