TCU 51 @ Michigan 45

Win Probability

Game Excitement Index: 5.69 | Odds: MICH -8, O/U 56.0 | Download Chart

Expected Points

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Team Stats [show/hide]

Concept from Robert Binion (@robert_binion). Cell colors reflect the percentile of a team's performance against all single-game FBS vs FBS performances in that stat in 2022.
Overall ESPN team id 2628 ESPN team id 130
EPA/Play 0.04 54th %ile-0.06 37th %ile
Success Rate 56% 96th %ile45% 71st %ile
Yards/Play 7.09 81st %ile7.96 92nd %ile
EPA/Dropback -0.21 26th %ile-0.08 40th %ile
EPA/Rush 0.23 83rd %ile-0.03 43rd %ile
Yards/Dropback 7.50 73rd %ile8.77 86th %ile
Explosive Play Rate 6% 26th %ile12% 86th %ile
3rd Down Success Rate 42% 53rd %ile25% 12th %ile
Red Zone Success Rate 68% 90th %ile45% 59th %ile
Def Run Stuff Rate 25% 26th %ile5% 0th %ile
Havoc Rate 10% 52nd %ile20% 93rd %ile
Expected Points ESPN team id 2628 ESPN team id 130
Total Plays 8592
Total EPA -4.78-0.83
  Offensive EPA 2.85-4.16
  Special Teams EPA -7.46-0.32
  Penalty EPA -1.04-0.31
  Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA 0.873.96
Production ESPN team id 2628 ESPN team id 130
Scrimmage Plays 7075
  Yards 496597
  Yards/Play 7.097.96
  EPA 2.85-4.16
  EPA/Play 0.04-0.06
Passes 30 (43%)39 (52%)
  Yards 225342
  Yards/Play 7.508.77
  EPA -6.42-3.23
  EPA/Play -0.21-0.08
Rushes 40 (57%)36 (48%)
  Yards 270222
  Yards/Play 6.756.34
  EPA 9.27-0.93
  EPA/Play 0.23-0.03
Rushing ESPN team id 2628 ESPN team id 130
Scrimmage Plays 7075
Rushes 40 (57%)36 (48%)
  Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) 3 (8%)0 (0%)
  Successful Power Runs (Rate) 3 (100%)0 (0%)
  Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) 2 (5%)9 (25%)
  Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) 14 (35%)12 (33%)
  Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) 20 (50%)17 (47%)
OL Line Yards 80.454.2
  Per Carry 2.011.51
Highlight Yards 111.5108.5
  Per Rush Opportunity 5.586.38
Explosiveness ESPN team id 2628 ESPN team id 130
Total Plays 8592
Scrimmage Plays 7075
Explosive Plays 4 (6%)9 (12%)
  When Passing (EPA > 2.4) 2 (7%)6 (15%)
  When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) 2 (5%)3 (8%)
EPA w/o Explosive Plays -13.27-36.71
  EPA/Play -0.20-0.56
  When Passing -16.40-25.75
    EPA/Play -0.55-0.66
  When Rushing 3.14-10.96
    EPA/Play 0.08-0.33
Situational ESPN team id 2628 ESPN team id 130
Successful Plays (EPA > 0) 39 (56%)34 (45%)
  When Passing 10 (33%)17 (44%)
  When Rushing 29 (73%)17 (47%)
  On Standard Downs 32 (56%)26 (45%)
  On Passing Downs 7 (54%)8 (47%)
  On Early Downs 31 (57%)31 (52%)
  On Late Downs 8 (50%)3 (20%)
  During "Middle 8" 4 (50%)6 (50%)
Early Downs 5460
  First Downs Created 11 (20%)14 (23%)
  EPA 1.0915.60
  EPA/Play 0.020.26
  Passes 21 (39%)29 (48%)
  Rushes 33 (61%)31 (52%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 8 (38%)16 (55%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 23 (70%)15 (48%)
"Middle 8" Plays 812
  EPA -2.024.04
  EPA/play -0.250.34
  Passes 4 (50%)9 (75%)
  Rushes 4 (50%)3 (25%)
  Successful Passes (Rate) 0 (0%)4 (44%)
  Successful Rushes (Rate) 4 (100%)2 (67%)
Drives ESPN team id 2628 ESPN team id 130
Total 1618
Avg Starting Field Position Own 22Own 31
Plays/Drive 6.445.49
Yards/Drive 43.7937.93
Available Yards % 56%55%
Defensive ESPN team id 2628 ESPN team id 130
Scrimmage Plays 7570
Stop Rate 45%36%
Havoc Plays Created 15 (20%)7 (10%)
  Passing 9 (23%)4 (13%)
  Rushing 6 (17%)3 (8%)
TFLs Generated 134
  Passing 72
  Rushing 62
Sacks Generated 4 (10%)1 (3%)
Passes Defensed 00
Interceptions 22
Fumbles Forced 11
Turnovers ESPN team id 2628 ESPN team id 130
Turnovers 34
  Fumbles 13
  Fumbles Lost 12
  Fumbles Recovered 01
  Interceptions 22
Turnover Margin 1-1
Expected Turnovers 0.91.9
Expected Turnover Margin 1.0-1.0
Turnover Luck (pts) 0.00.0
Special Teams ESPN team id 2628 ESPN team id 130
Total Plays 15 17
Total EPA -7.46 -0.32
  Field Goal EPA 0.36 5.19
  Punting EPA -3.28 -2.12
  Kickoff Return EPA -4.55 -3.39
Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
Max Duggan 14/29, 225 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 1 Sck, 46.5 xQBR, 2.25 DETMER 7.50 -0.21 -6.42 33% -19.0%
Rush attempts
Max Duggan 14 carries, 64 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 4.57 0.38 5.27 79% -8.0%
Kendre Miller 8 carries, 57 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 7.12 0.33 2.60 75% 3.0%
TEAM 1 carry, -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.00 0.83 0.83 100% 3.0%
Emari Demercado 17 carries, 150 yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 8.82 0.03 0.57 65% -22.0%
Pass targets
Quentin Johnston 6 catches (9 targets), 163 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 27.17 0.89 8.05 33% 16.0%
Taye Barber 2 catches (3 targets), 12 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.47 1.40 67% 2.0%
Jared Wiley 1 catch (1 target), 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.29 0.29 100% 0.0%
Derius Davis 2 catches (3 targets), 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 6.00 0.09 0.28 67% 1.0%
Jordan Hudson 2 catches (4 targets), 34 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 17.00 0.01 0.04 50% -1.0%
Emari Demercado 1 catch (1 target), -2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -2.00 -1.92 -1.92 0% -3.0%
Kendre Miller 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -0.96 -1.92 0% -7.0%
Savion Williams 0 catches (3 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 0.00 -1.06 -3.17 0% -5.0%

Michigan [show/hide]

ESPN team id 130
Stat line Yards/play EPA/play EPA SR WPA
Dropbacks
J.J. McCarthy 20/32, 343 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 3 Scks, 73.6 xQBR, 0.57 DETMER 9.80 0.57 19.90 49% 60.0%
Donovan Edwards 1/1, -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 38.2 xQBR, 0.00 DETMER -1.00 -3.09 -3.09 0% -3.0%
Colston Loveland 0/0, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 41.3 xQBR, 0.00 DETMER 0.00 -3.84 -3.84 0% -5.0%
TEAM 0/2, 0 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 0 Scks, 25.1 xQBR, 0.00 DETMER 0.00 -8.10 -16.19 0% -34.0%
Rush attempts
J.J. McCarthy 7 carries, 82 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 11.71 0.82 5.75 71% 23.0%
Roman Wilson 1 carry, 18 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 18.00 3.39 3.39 100% 13.0%
Donovan Edwards 23 carries, 119 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 5.17 -0.12 -2.79 43% -3.0%
Kalel Mullings 5 carries, 3 yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) 0.60 -1.45 -7.27 20% -4.0%
Pass targets
Roman Wilson 5 catches (6 targets), 104 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 20.80 2.03 12.18 83% 35.0%
Ronnie Bell 6 catches (8 targets), 135 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 22.50 1.13 9.06 62% 22.0%
Luke Schoonmaker 1 catch (1 target), 32 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 32.00 3.59 3.59 100% 8.0%
Cornelius Johnson 2 catches (3 targets), 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 15.00 0.04 0.12 67% 2.0%
Donovan Edwards 1 catch (4 targets), 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 8.00 -0.23 -0.92 25% -2.0%
Colston Loveland 4 catches (7 targets), 36 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) 9.00 -0.17 -1.21 43% 6.0%
A.J. Henning 2 catches (2 targets), -3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) -1.50 -0.86 -1.71 0% -2.0%

Big Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute EPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 9:22 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 34) Bud Clark 41 Yd Interception Return (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 7, MICH 0 -8.94 71.9% -19.9%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 1.94 = -8.94

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.94)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 7, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.9%

Win Probability (After): 52.0%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:52 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 3 at MICH 28) Dee Winters 29 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) - TCU 34, MICH 16 -7.25 19.2% -13.7%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -8.00 - -0.75 = -7.25

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.75)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 34, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.2%

Win Probability (After): 5.5%

Away Score: 28 (34) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:07 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 7 at TCU 24) Quentin Johnston 76 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 48, MICH 38 7.18 53.6% 23.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -0.18 = 7.18

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.82)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 48, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.6%

Win Probability (After): 76.9%

Away Score: 41 (48) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:08 ESPN team id 130 (1st & Goal at TCU 1) Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the TCU 1 Kalel Mullings fumbled, recovered by TCU Bud Clark - TCU 14, MICH 3 -7.11 47.0% -14.4%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.73 - 6.38 = -7.11

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-4.62)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.73)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.0%

Win Probability (After): 32.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 25) Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 27 Emari Demercado fumbled, forced by Mazi Smith, recovered by Mich Mazi Smith - TCU 41, MICH 30 -5.91 88.0% -19.6%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 27

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.78 - 2.13 = -5.91

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.13)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.22)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 41, MICH 30

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.0%

Win Probability (After): 68.4%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:28 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 49) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 50 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, MICH 3 4.40 39.7% 7.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 1

Started Drive at: MICH 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.38 - 1.98 = 4.40

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.02)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-4.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.7%

Win Probability (After): 47.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:09 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 45) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 44 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST down - TCU 41, MICH 22 4.28 4.2% 5.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 1

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.33 - 2.05 = 4.28

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-16.95)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-12.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 41, MICH 22

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.2%

Win Probability (After): 9.2%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:35 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 27) Max Duggan pass intercepted Rod Moore return for no gain to the Mich 49 - TCU 14, MICH 3 -4.20 68.2% -7.4%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 51

Started Drive at: TCU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.98 - 2.22 = -4.20

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.22)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.02)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.2%

Win Probability (After): 60.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:53 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 2 at TCU 30) Emari Demercado run for 69 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST down - TCU 34, MICH 22 4.02 89.2% 2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 1

Started Drive at: TCU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.59 - 2.57 = 4.02

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.57)

Score Difference (End): 12 (18.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 34, MICH 22

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.2%

Win Probability (After): 91.6%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:30 ESPN team id 130 (4th & Goal at TCU 2) Colston Loveland sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 10 - TCU 0, MICH 0 -3.84 75.4% -4.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 90

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.20 - 3.64 = -3.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.20)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.4%

Win Probability (After): 70.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Most Important Plays [show/hide]

As determined by absolute WPA.

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q4 13:07 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 7 at TCU 24) Quentin Johnston 76 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 48, MICH 38 7.18 53.6% 23.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -0.18 = 7.18

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.82)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 48, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.6%

Win Probability (After): 76.9%

Away Score: 41 (48) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:22 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 34) Bud Clark 41 Yd Interception Return (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 7, MICH 0 -8.94 71.9% -19.9%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 1.94 = -8.94

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.94)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 7, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.9%

Win Probability (After): 52.0%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 25) Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 27 Emari Demercado fumbled, forced by Mazi Smith, recovered by Mich Mazi Smith - TCU 41, MICH 30 -5.91 88.0% -19.6%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 27

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.78 - 2.13 = -5.91

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.13)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.22)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 41, MICH 30

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.0%

Win Probability (After): 68.4%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:18 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & Goal at TCU 5) Roman Wilson 5 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick) - TCU 51, MICH 45 1.59 9.1% 16.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.41 = 1.59

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-7.59)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.1%

Win Probability (After): 26.0%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 6:32 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 34) Ronnie Bell 34 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick) - TCU 21, MICH 16 3.73 31.0% 16.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.27 = 3.73

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-8.73)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.0%

Win Probability (After): 47.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:05 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 10) Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the TCU 12 - TCU 51, MICH 45 -0.50 99.2% -16.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 88

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - 0.40 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 13 (13.40)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 83.1%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:08 ESPN team id 130 (1st & Goal at TCU 1) Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the TCU 1 Kalel Mullings fumbled, recovered by TCU Bud Clark - TCU 14, MICH 3 -7.11 47.0% -14.4%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.73 - 6.38 = -7.11

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-4.62)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.73)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.0%

Win Probability (After): 32.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:52 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 3 at MICH 28) Dee Winters 29 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) - TCU 34, MICH 16 -7.25 19.2% -13.7%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -8.00 - -0.75 = -7.25

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.75)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 34, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.2%

Win Probability (After): 5.5%

Away Score: 28 (34) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 14:13 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 1 at TCU 18) Roman Wilson 18 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthy Pass to Ronnie Bell for Two-Point Conversion) - TCU 41, MICH 38 3.39 33.5% 12.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 4.61 = 3.39

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.39)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 41, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.5%

Win Probability (After): 46.5%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 30 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:47 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 20) J.J. McCarthy 20 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) - TCU 34, MICH 22 1.77 9.9% 12.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 4.23 = 1.77

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-13.77)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 34, MICH 22

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.9%

Win Probability (After): 22.7%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 16 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Scoring Plays [show/hide]

Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 9:22 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 34) Bud Clark 41 Yd Interception Return (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 7, MICH 0 -8.94 71.9% -19.9%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 1.94 = -8.94

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.94)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 7, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.9%

Win Probability (After): 52.0%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 2:27 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & Goal at MICH 1) Max Duggan 1 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 14, MICH 0 0.39 64.6% 3.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.61 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (13.61)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.6%

Win Probability (After): 67.9%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:46 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 5 at TCU 25) Jake Moody 42 Yd Field Goal - TCU 14, MICH 3 2.28 30.5% 8.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 24

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.72 = 2.28

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.28)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.5%

Win Probability (After): 39.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 4:56 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & Goal at MICH 6) Taye Barber 6 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 21, MICH 3 1.92 78.8% -0.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.08 = 1.92

Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.08)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.8%

Win Probability (After): 78.0%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 42) Jake Moody 59 Yd Field Goal - TCU 21, MICH 6 2.50 20.6% 3.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 41

Started Drive at: MICH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.50 = 2.50

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.50)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-15.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.6%

Win Probability (After): 24.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 9:29 ESPN team id 130 (4th & Goal at TCU 4) Jake Moody 21 Yd Field Goal - TCU 21, MICH 9 0.41 23.3% 8.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: MICH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.59 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-12.41)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 9

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.3%

Win Probability (After): 31.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 6:32 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 34) Ronnie Bell 34 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick) - TCU 21, MICH 16 3.73 31.0% 16.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.27 = 3.73

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-8.73)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.0%

Win Probability (After): 47.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:25 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & Goal at MICH 1) Emari Demercado 1 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 28, MICH 16 0.49 74.2% 4.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.51 = 0.49

Score Difference (Before): 5 (11.51)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 28, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.2%

Win Probability (After): 79.1%

Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:52 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 3 at MICH 28) Dee Winters 29 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) - TCU 34, MICH 16 -7.25 19.2% -13.7%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -8.00 - -0.75 = -7.25

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.75)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 34, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.2%

Win Probability (After): 5.5%

Away Score: 28 (34) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:47 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 20) J.J. McCarthy 20 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) - TCU 34, MICH 22 1.77 9.9% 12.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 4.23 = 1.77

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-13.77)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 34, MICH 22

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.9%

Win Probability (After): 22.7%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 16 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:49 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & Goal at MICH 1) Max Duggan 1 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 41, MICH 22 0.41 92.9% 3.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.59 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 12 (18.59)

Score Difference (End): 19 (19.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 41, MICH 22

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.9%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 34 (41) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:03 ESPN team id 130 (1st & Goal at TCU 1) Kalel Mullings 1 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthy Run for Two-Point Conversion) - TCU 41, MICH 30 1.73 8.6% 9.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 6.27 = 1.73

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-12.73)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 41, MICH 30

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.6%

Win Probability (After): 18.5%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 22 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:13 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 1 at TCU 18) Roman Wilson 18 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthy Pass to Ronnie Bell for Two-Point Conversion) - TCU 41, MICH 38 3.39 33.5% 12.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 4.61 = 3.39

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.39)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 41, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.5%

Win Probability (After): 46.5%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 30 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 13:07 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 7 at TCU 24) Quentin Johnston 76 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 48, MICH 38 7.18 53.6% 23.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -0.18 = 7.18

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.82)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 48, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.6%

Win Probability (After): 76.9%

Away Score: 41 (48) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:02 ESPN team id 2628 (4th & 9 at MICH 16) Griffin Kell 33 Yd Field Goal - TCU 51, MICH 38 0.36 90.0% 3.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 15

Started Drive at: MICH 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.64 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.64)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.0%

Win Probability (After): 93.0%

Away Score: 48 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 3:18 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & Goal at TCU 5) Roman Wilson 5 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick) - TCU 51, MICH 45 1.59 9.1% 16.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.41 = 1.59

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-7.59)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.1%

Win Probability (After): 26.0%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

All Plays [show/hide]

Play shading guide:
  • Yellow - penalty
  • Red - turnover
  • Green - scoring play
Time Offense Play Description EPA WP% WPA
Q1 15:00 ESPN team id 130 (Kickoff at MICH 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 0, MICH 0 0.00 71.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.0%

Win Probability (After): 71.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:52 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 25) Donovan Edwards run for 54 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST down - TCU 0, MICH 0 3.36 71.9% 5.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 21

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 1.14 = 3.36

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.14)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.9%

Win Probability (After): 77.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:14 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 21) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston Loveland - TCU 0, MICH 0 -0.50 77.7% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.16 - 4.65 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.65)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.16)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.7%

Win Probability (After): 76.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 14:00 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 10 at TCU 21) Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the TCU 18 - TCU 0, MICH 0 -0.66 76.9% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 18

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.43 - 4.09 = -0.66

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.09)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 57 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.9%

Win Probability (After): 76.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 13:22 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 7 at TCU 18) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 9 yds to the TCU 9 for a 1ST down - TCU 0, MICH 0 1.73 76.9% 1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 9

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.23 - 3.49 = 1.73

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.49)

Score Difference (End): 0 (5.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 66 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.9%

Win Probability (After): 78.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:50 ESPN team id 130 (1st & Goal at TCU 9) Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the TCU 6 - TCU 0, MICH 0 -0.31 79.3% 0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 6

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.94 - 5.24 = -0.31

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.24)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.3%

Win Probability (After): 80.1%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 12:24 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & Goal at TCU 6) MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 11 - TCU 0, MICH 0 -0.81 78.0% -0.7%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 11

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.22 - 5.03 = -0.81

Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.03)

Score Difference (End): 0 (4.22)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.0%

Win Probability (After): 77.3%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:35 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & Goal at TCU 11) Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the TCU 7 - TCU 0, MICH 0 -0.27 75.6% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 7

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 4.20 = -0.27

Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.20)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 73 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.6%

Win Probability (After): 75.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 11:08 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & Goal at TCU 7) J.J. McCarthy run for 5 yds to the TCU 2 - TCU 0, MICH 0 -0.33 75.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 2

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 3.95 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.95)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.0%

Win Probability (After): 75.0%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 10:39 ESPN team id 130 (4th & Goal at TCU 2) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 10:39 - TCU 0, MICH 0 0.00 73.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 2

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 3.61 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.61)

Score Difference (End): 0 (3.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 73.9%

Win Probability (After): 73.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:30 ESPN team id 130 (4th & Goal at TCU 2) Colston Loveland sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 10 - TCU 0, MICH 0 -3.84 75.4% -4.7%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 90

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.20 - 3.64 = -3.84

Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.64)

Score Difference (End): 0 (0.20)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 70 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.4%

Win Probability (After): 70.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 10:25 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 10) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion Williams - TCU 0, MICH 0 -0.83 29.3% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.64 - 0.19 = -0.83

Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.19)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.3%

Win Probability (After): 28.2%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 10:10 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 10 at TCU 10) Kendre Miller run for 8 yds to the TCU 18 - TCU 0, MICH 0 0.58 30.0% -2.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 82

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.09 - -0.67 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.67)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.0%

Win Probability (After): 27.7%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 9:43 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 2 at TCU 18) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin Johnston - TCU 0, MICH 0 -1.77 29.8% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 82

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.82 - -0.05 = -1.77

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.05)

Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.8%

Win Probability (After): 26.9%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 9:31 ESPN team id 2628 (4th & 2 at TCU 18) Jordy Sandy punt for 48 yds, downed at the Mich 34 - TCU 0, MICH 0 -0.12 27.6% -0.0%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 66

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.03 - -1.91 = -0.12

Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.91)

Score Difference (End): 0 (2.03)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 0, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.6%

Win Probability (After): 27.5%

Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 9:22 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 34) Bud Clark 41 Yd Interception Return (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 7, MICH 0 -8.94 71.9% -19.9%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 34

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 1.94 = -8.94

Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.94)

Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 7, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.9%

Win Probability (After): 52.0%

Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 9:22 ESPN team id 130 (Kickoff at MICH 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 7, MICH 0 0.00 50.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 0.01 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.99)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.5%

Win Probability (After): 50.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 9:10 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 25) Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Mich 27 - TCU 7, MICH 0 -0.42 51.7% -1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.42 - 0.01 = -0.42

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.99)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.42)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.7%

Win Probability (After): 50.0%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 8:30 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 8 at MICH 27) Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the Mich 31 - TCU 7, MICH 0 0.14 50.6% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 69

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.37 - -0.52 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.52)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.37)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 50.6%

Win Probability (After): 50.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:58 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 4 at MICH 31) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cornelius Johnson - TCU 7, MICH 0 -1.53 51.4% -3.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.01 - -0.48 = -1.53

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.48)

Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.4%

Win Probability (After): 47.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 7:46 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 4 at MICH 31) Brad Robbins punt for 45 yds, downed at the TCU 24 - TCU 7, MICH 0 -0.07 48.9% 0.3%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 76

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.05 - -1.99 = -0.07

Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.99)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.05)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 7, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 48.9%

Win Probability (After): 49.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q1 7:35 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 24) Kendre Miller run for 14 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST down - TCU 7, MICH 0 0.89 51.5% 2.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 62

Started Drive at: TCU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.94 - 2.05 = 0.89

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.05)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.94)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 51.5%

Win Probability (After): 53.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 7:05 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 38) Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 41 - TCU 7, MICH 0 -0.45 54.8% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 59

Started Drive at: TCU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 3.04 = -0.45

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.04)

Score Difference (End): 7 (9.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 54.8%

Win Probability (After): 53.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 6:39 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 7 at TCU 41) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Kendre Miller - TCU 7, MICH 0 -0.88 56.9% -4.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59

Started Drive at: TCU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.73 - 2.61 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.61)

Score Difference (End): 7 (8.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.9%

Win Probability (After): 52.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 6:15 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 7 at TCU 41) Max Duggan run for 12 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST down - TCU 7, MICH 0 2.11 55.7% 3.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 47

Started Drive at: TCU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.73 - 1.62 = 2.11

Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.62)

Score Difference (End): 7 (10.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards

Win Probability (Before): 55.7%

Win Probability (After): 59.1%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 6:01 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at MICH 47) Max Duggan pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 21 yds to the Mich 26 for a 1ST down - TCU 7, MICH 0 0.99 59.4% 1.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 26

Started Drive at: TCU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.74 - 3.74 = 0.99

Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.74)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.4%

Win Probability (After): 60.6%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:35 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at MICH 26) Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 4 yds to the Mich 22 - TCU 7, MICH 0 -0.05 60.1% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 22

Started Drive at: TCU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.70 - 4.75 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.75)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards

Win Probability (Before): 60.1%

Win Probability (After): 60.9%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 5:00 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 6 at MICH 22) Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the Mich 18 - TCU 7, MICH 0 -0.09 59.9% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 18

Started Drive at: TCU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.61 - 4.70 = -0.09

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.70)

Score Difference (End): 7 (11.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 58 yards

Win Probability (Before): 59.9%

Win Probability (After): 60.5%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 4:45 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 2 at MICH 18) Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 7 yds to the Mich 11 for a 1ST down - TCU 7, MICH 0 0.84 58.5% 3.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 11

Started Drive at: TCU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.45 - 4.61 = 0.84

Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.61)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.5%

Win Probability (After): 61.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 4:15 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at MICH 11) Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 6 yds to the Mich 5 - TCU 7, MICH 0 0.27 56.9% 3.3%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 5

Started Drive at: TCU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.73 - 5.47 = 0.27

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.47)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 71 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.9%

Win Probability (After): 60.2%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 3:35 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 4 at MICH 5) Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the Mich 2 - TCU 7, MICH 0 0.18 57.2% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 2

Started Drive at: TCU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.92 - 5.74 = 0.18

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.74)

Score Difference (End): 7 (12.92)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.2%

Win Probability (After): 56.4%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 3:00 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 1 at MICH 2) Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the Mich 1 for a 1ST down - TCU 7, MICH 0 0.69 58.5% -0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 1

Started Drive at: TCU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.61 - 5.92 = 0.69

Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.92)

Score Difference (End): 7 (13.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 7, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.5%

Win Probability (After): 57.8%

Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 2:27 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & Goal at MICH 1) Max Duggan 1 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 14, MICH 0 0.39 64.6% 3.3%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.61 = 0.39

Score Difference (Before): 7 (13.61)

Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 12 plays, 76 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.6%

Win Probability (After): 67.9%

Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q1 2:27 ESPN team id 130 (Kickoff at MICH 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 14, MICH 0 0.00 33.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.51 - -0.51 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.51)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.51)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.3%

Win Probability (After): 33.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 2:00 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 25) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to A.J. Henning for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 20 - TCU 14, MICH 0 -1.38 32.1% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 80

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.83 - -0.45 = -1.38

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.45)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 1 play, -5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.1%

Win Probability (After): 29.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:35 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 15 at MICH 20) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 32 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, MICH 0 3.59 27.9% 7.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 48

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.85 - -1.74 = 3.59

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.74)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.15)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.9%

Win Probability (After): 35.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 1:15 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 48) Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the TCU 45 - TCU 14, MICH 0 -0.43 33.2% 1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 45

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - 1.89 = -0.43

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.11)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 30 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.2%

Win Probability (After): 34.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:47 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 7 at TCU 45) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 16 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, MICH 0 1.96 27.6% 7.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 29

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 1.48 = 1.96

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.52)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.6%

Win Probability (After): 35.4%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q1 0:15 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 29) Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the TCU 24 - TCU 14, MICH 0 0.09 29.4% 1.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 24

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.52 - 3.43 = 0.09

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.57)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 29.4%

Win Probability (After): 30.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:50 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 5 at TCU 24) Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the TCU 23 - TCU 14, MICH 0 -0.58 33.9% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 23

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.91 - 3.49 = -0.58

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.51)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.9%

Win Probability (After): 31.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 14:20 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 4 at TCU 23) Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 24 - TCU 14, MICH 0 -1.92 34.1% -4.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 24

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.98 - 2.91 = -1.92

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.09)

Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 0

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.1%

Win Probability (After): 29.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:46 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 5 at TCU 25) Jake Moody 42 Yd Field Goal - TCU 14, MICH 3 2.28 30.5% 8.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 24

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.72 = 2.28

Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.28)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.5%

Win Probability (After): 39.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 13:46 ESPN team id 2628 (Kickoff at TCU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 61 yds , Derius Davis return for 23 yds to the TCU 27 - TCU 14, MICH 3 -0.91 68.0% -0.1%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 73

Started Drive at: TCU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 1.93 = -0.91

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.93)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.02)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.0%

Win Probability (After): 68.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 13:35 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 27) Max Duggan pass intercepted Rod Moore return for no gain to the Mich 49 - TCU 14, MICH 3 -4.20 68.2% -7.4%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 51

Started Drive at: TCU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.98 - 2.22 = -4.20

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.22)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.02)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 68.2%

Win Probability (After): 60.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:28 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 49) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 50 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, MICH 3 4.40 39.7% 7.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 1

Started Drive at: MICH 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.38 - 1.98 = 4.40

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.02)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-4.62)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 39.7%

Win Probability (After): 47.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 13:08 ESPN team id 130 (1st & Goal at TCU 1) Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the TCU 1 Kalel Mullings fumbled, recovered by TCU Bud Clark - TCU 14, MICH 3 -7.11 47.0% -14.4%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 49

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.73 - 6.38 = -7.11

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-4.62)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.73)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 50 yards

Win Probability (Before): 47.0%

Win Probability (After): 32.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:40 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 20) Kendre Miller run for 13 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, MICH 3 0.58 70.4% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 67

Started Drive at: TCU 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.70 - 2.12 = 0.58

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.12)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.4%

Win Probability (After): 71.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 12:25 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 33) Kendre Miller run for 6 yds to the TCU 39 - TCU 14, MICH 3 0.23 70.0% 2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 61

Started Drive at: TCU 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.96 - 2.73 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.73)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.96)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.0%

Win Probability (After): 72.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:49 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 4 at TCU 39) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius Davis - TCU 14, MICH 3 -0.77 71.2% -1.6%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: TCU 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 2.94 = -0.77

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.94)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 71.2%

Win Probability (After): 69.6%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:45 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 4 at TCU 39) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion Williams - TCU 14, MICH 3 -1.72 69.9% -2.2%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61

Started Drive at: TCU 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - 2.19 = -1.72

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.19)

Score Difference (End): 11 (11.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.9%

Win Probability (After): 67.7%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 11:35 ESPN team id 2628 (4th & 4 at TCU 39) Jordy Sandy punt for 51 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 16 yds to the Mich 26 - TCU 14, MICH 3 -0.93 67.7% -0.5%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 74

Started Drive at: TCU 1

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.47 - 0.46 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.46)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.53)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.7%

Win Probability (After): 67.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 11:25 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 26) Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the Mich 29 - TCU 14, MICH 3 -0.61 32.9% -1.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 71

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.55 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.45)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.06)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.9%

Win Probability (After): 31.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:40 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 7 at MICH 29) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 8 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, MICH 3 1.22 32.6% 1.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 63

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.31 - 0.10 = 1.22

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.90)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.6%

Win Probability (After): 34.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 10:15 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 37) Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the Mich 45 - TCU 14, MICH 3 0.59 32.1% 4.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 55

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.16 - 1.57 = 0.59

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.43)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.84)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 32.1%

Win Probability (After): 37.0%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:50 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 2 at MICH 45) Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 43 - TCU 14, MICH 3 -1.00 35.4% -4.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 57

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.17 - 2.17 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.83)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 35.4%

Win Probability (After): 31.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:26 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 4 at MICH 43) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie Bell - TCU 14, MICH 3 -1.42 34.2% -4.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.46 - 0.97 = -1.42

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.03)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 34.2%

Win Probability (After): 30.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 9:20 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 4 at MICH 43) Brad Robbins punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 17 - TCU 14, MICH 3 -1.00 31.3% -1.4%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 83

Started Drive at: MICH 26

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.63 - -0.63 = -1.00

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.63)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.63)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.3%

Win Probability (After): 29.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 9:05 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 17) Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 20 - TCU 14, MICH 3 -0.39 69.2% -1.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 80

Started Drive at: TCU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 1.52 = -0.39

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.52)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.2%

Win Probability (After): 68.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:25 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 7 at TCU 20) Max Duggan pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 13 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, MICH 3 1.42 67.8% 2.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 67

Started Drive at: TCU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 0.83 = 1.42

Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.83)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.8%

Win Probability (After): 70.2%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 8:05 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 33) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye Barber - TCU 14, MICH 3 -0.79 69.8% -1.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: TCU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - 2.14 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.14)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.8%

Win Probability (After): 68.8%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:50 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 10 at TCU 33) Max Duggan run for 8 yds to the TCU 41 - TCU 14, MICH 3 0.33 70.2% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 59

Started Drive at: TCU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - 1.49 = 0.33

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.49)

Score Difference (End): 11 (12.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards

Win Probability (Before): 70.2%

Win Probability (After): 70.1%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 7:10 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 2 at TCU 41) Max Duggan run for 8 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, MICH 3 1.09 72.7% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 51

Started Drive at: TCU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 1.89 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.89)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards

Win Probability (Before): 72.7%

Win Probability (After): 72.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:25 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 49) Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 32 yds to the Mich 19 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, MICH 3 1.80 75.7% 0.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 19

Started Drive at: TCU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.83 - 3.03 = 1.80

Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.03)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.83)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.7%

Win Probability (After): 76.5%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 6:10 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at MICH 19) Max Duggan run for 4 yds to the Mich 15 - TCU 14, MICH 3 0.02 77.3% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 15

Started Drive at: TCU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.76 - 4.74 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.74)

Score Difference (End): 11 (15.76)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 68 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.3%

Win Probability (After): 77.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:35 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 6 at MICH 15) Kendre Miller run for 9 yds to the Mich 6 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, MICH 3 1.11 76.6% 1.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 6

Started Drive at: TCU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.75 - 4.64 = 1.11

Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.64)

Score Difference (End): 11 (16.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.6%

Win Probability (After): 78.3%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 5:03 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & Goal at MICH 6) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion Williams - TCU 14, MICH 3 -0.61 78.9% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6

Started Drive at: TCU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.08 - 5.70 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.70)

Score Difference (End): 11 (16.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 14, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.9%

Win Probability (After): 76.9%

Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:56 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & Goal at MICH 6) Taye Barber 6 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 21, MICH 3 1.92 78.8% -0.7%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 17

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.08 = 1.92

Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.08)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 10 plays, 83 yards

Win Probability (Before): 78.8%

Win Probability (After): 78.0%

Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 4:56 ESPN team id 130 (Kickoff at MICH 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 21, MICH 3 0.00 23.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 0.44 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.56)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.5%

Win Probability (After): 23.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:40 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 25) Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the Mich 25 - TCU 21, MICH 3 -0.57 21.8% -1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.11 - 0.45 = -0.57

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.55)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.8%

Win Probability (After): 20.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 4:10 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 10 at MICH 25) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 14 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 3 1.69 18.8% 4.5%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 61

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - -0.22 = 1.69

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.22)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-16.53)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.8%

Win Probability (After): 23.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:43 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 39) Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds to the Mich 46 - TCU 21, MICH 3 0.11 22.8% 1.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 54

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 1.48 = 0.11

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-16.52)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-16.40)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.8%

Win Probability (After): 24.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 3:09 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 3 at MICH 46) TCU Penalty, Roughing Passer (Johnny Hodges) to the TCU 39 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 3 1.33 23.6% 3.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 39

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.91 - 1.58 = 1.33

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-16.42)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-15.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.6%

Win Probability (After): 26.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:55 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 39) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to A.J. Henning for 2 yds to the TCU 37 - TCU 21, MICH 3 -0.33 26.2% -0.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 37

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 2.62 = -0.33

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-15.38)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-15.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.2%

Win Probability (After): 26.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:37 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 8 at TCU 37) MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 42 - TCU 21, MICH 3 -0.78 26.2% -2.6%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 42

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 2.26 = -0.78

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-15.74)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-16.52)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 26.2%

Win Probability (After): 23.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 2:10 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 13 at TCU 42) J.J. McCarthy sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 49 - TCU 21, MICH 3 -0.79 21.4% -2.4%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 49

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.51 - 1.31 = -0.79

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-16.69)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 21.4%

Win Probability (After): 19.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:38 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 20 at TCU 49) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston Loveland - TCU 21, MICH 3 -0.56 18.3% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.49 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.51)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.07)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.3%

Win Probability (After): 17.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 1:33 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 20 at TCU 49) Brad Robbins punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 15 - TCU 21, MICH 3 -0.54 15.6% 4.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 85

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.69 - -0.14 = -0.54

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.14)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.69)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.6%

Win Probability (After): 19.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 1:26 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 15) Emari Demercado run for 16 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 3 0.61 81.7% 0.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 69

Started Drive at: TCU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 0.51 = 0.61

Score Difference (Before): 18 (18.51)

Score Difference (End): 18 (19.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.7%

Win Probability (After): 82.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 1:10 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 31) Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the TCU 38 - TCU 21, MICH 3 0.02 82.7% -0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 62

Started Drive at: TCU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.11 - 1.09 = 0.02

Score Difference (Before): 18 (19.09)

Score Difference (End): 18 (19.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.7%

Win Probability (After): 82.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:57 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 3 at TCU 38) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin Johnston - TCU 21, MICH 3 -0.17 85.8% -3.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62

Started Drive at: TCU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.78 - 0.95 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): 18 (18.95)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards

Win Probability (Before): 85.8%

Win Probability (After): 82.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:53 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 3 at TCU 38) Max Duggan sacked by Makari Paige for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 31 - TCU 21, MICH 3 -0.75 84.9% -3.0%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 69

Started Drive at: TCU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.68 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): 18 (18.68)

Score Difference (End): 18 (17.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.9%

Win Probability (After): 81.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:53 ESPN team id 2628 (4th & 10 at TCU 31) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 00:53 - TCU 21, MICH 3 0.00 82.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: TCU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - -0.07 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 18 (17.93)

Score Difference (End): 18 (17.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.0%

Win Probability (After): 82.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:47 ESPN team id 2628 (4th & 10 at TCU 31) Jordy Sandy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the Mich 33 - TCU 21, MICH 3 -0.44 82.7% 0.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 67

Started Drive at: TCU 15

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.58 - -0.14 = -0.44

Score Difference (Before): 18 (17.86)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.42)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.7%

Win Probability (After): 83.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q2 0:42 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 33) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie Bell - TCU 21, MICH 3 -0.05 16.0% -0.4%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67

Started Drive at: MICH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.40 = -0.05

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.60)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 16.0%

Win Probability (After): 15.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:35 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 10 at MICH 33) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 15 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 3 0.64 15.4% 4.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 52

Started Drive at: MICH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - 0.35 = 0.64

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.65)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.01)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.4%

Win Probability (After): 19.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:22 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 48) J.J. McCarthy sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 11 yards to the Mich 37 J.J. McCarthy fumbled, forced by Dylan Horton, recovered by Mich - TCU 21, MICH 3 -0.34 19.1% -3.5%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 63

Started Drive at: MICH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.30 - 0.63 = -0.34

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.37)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.70)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.1%

Win Probability (After): 15.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:15 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 21 at MICH 37) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 7 yds to the Mich 44 - TCU 21, MICH 3 0.14 15.3% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 56

Started Drive at: MICH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.27 - 0.13 = 0.14

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.87)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.3%

Win Probability (After): 15.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:15 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 14 at MICH 44) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 00:15 - TCU 21, MICH 3 0.00 15.5% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56

Started Drive at: MICH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.27 - 0.27 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.73)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.73)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.5%

Win Probability (After): 15.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:05 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 14 at MICH 44) TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson) to the TCU 41 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 3 0.71 15.1% 6.1%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 41

Started Drive at: MICH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.89 - 0.18 = 0.71

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.82)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 15.1%

Win Probability (After): 21.2%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q2 0:05 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 41) Timeout TCU, clock 00:05 - TCU 21, MICH 3 0.00 20.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41

Started Drive at: MICH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.89 - 0.89 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.11)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 3

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.7%

Win Probability (After): 20.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q2 0:00 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 42) Jake Moody 59 Yd Field Goal - TCU 21, MICH 6 2.50 20.6% 3.4%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 41

Started Drive at: MICH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.50 = 2.50

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.50)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-15.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.6%

Win Probability (After): 24.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 15:00 ESPN team id 2628 (Kickoff at TCU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 21, MICH 6 0.00 82.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.46 - 2.46 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 15 (17.46)

Score Difference (End): 15 (17.46)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 6

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.0%

Win Probability (After): 82.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:51 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 25) Max Duggan run for 14 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 6 0.59 83.2% 0.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 61

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.20 - 2.61 = 0.59

Score Difference (Before): 15 (17.61)

Score Difference (End): 15 (18.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, 14 yards

Win Probability (Before): 83.2%

Win Probability (After): 83.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 14:15 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 39) Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the TCU 40 - TCU 21, MICH 6 0.05 84.2% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 60

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.29 - 3.24 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): 15 (18.24)

Score Difference (End): 15 (18.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.2%

Win Probability (After): 83.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:54 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 9 at TCU 40) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Kendre Miller - TCU 21, MICH 6 -1.04 84.4% -2.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.78 - 2.81 = -1.04

Score Difference (Before): 15 (17.81)

Score Difference (End): 15 (16.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 84.4%

Win Probability (After): 81.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:50 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 9 at TCU 40) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jordan Hudson - TCU 21, MICH 6 -1.35 82.5% -1.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.49 - 1.84 = -1.35

Score Difference (Before): 15 (16.84)

Score Difference (End): 15 (15.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.5%

Win Probability (After): 80.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 13:38 ESPN team id 2628 (4th & 9 at TCU 40) Jordy Sandy punt for 42 yds TCU Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Namdi Obiazor) to the Mich 33 - TCU 21, MICH 6 -0.88 80.6% -5.2%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 67

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.39 - 0.48 = -0.88

Score Difference (Before): 15 (15.49)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-14.61)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 21, MICH 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 80.6%

Win Probability (After): 75.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 13:30 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 33) Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 31 - TCU 21, MICH 6 -1.43 23.2% -3.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 69

Started Drive at: MICH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.11 - 0.32 = -1.43

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-14.68)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-16.11)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 6

Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.2%

Win Probability (After): 20.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:45 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 12 at MICH 31) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 20 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 6 2.99 18.5% 7.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 49

Started Drive at: MICH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.86 - -1.13 = 2.99

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-16.13)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-13.14)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 6

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.5%

Win Probability (After): 26.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 12:10 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 49) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 43 yds to the TCU 6 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 6 3.53 24.2% 5.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 6

Started Drive at: MICH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.37 - 1.83 = 3.53

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-13.17)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-9.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 6

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.2%

Win Probability (After): 29.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 11:25 ESPN team id 130 (1st & Goal at TCU 6) Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the TCU 3 - TCU 21, MICH 6 0.13 27.3% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 3

Started Drive at: MICH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.55 - 5.42 = 0.13

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-9.58)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-9.45)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 6

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 27.3%

Win Probability (After): 28.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 10:45 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & Goal at TCU 3) Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the TCU 3 - TCU 21, MICH 6 -1.01 24.9% 1.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 3

Started Drive at: MICH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.57 - 5.58 = -1.01

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-9.42)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-10.43)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 6

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.9%

Win Probability (After): 26.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:45 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & Goal at TCU 3) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 4 - TCU 21, MICH 6 -2.11 25.4% -3.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 4

Started Drive at: MICH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 4.70 = -2.11

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-10.30)

Score Difference (End): -15 (-12.41)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 6

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 25.4%

Win Probability (After): 22.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:29 ESPN team id 130 (4th & Goal at TCU 4) Jake Moody 21 Yd Field Goal - TCU 21, MICH 9 0.41 23.3% 8.5%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4

Started Drive at: MICH 33

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.59 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): -15 (-12.41)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 9

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 23.3%

Win Probability (After): 31.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q3 9:29 ESPN team id 2628 (Kickoff at TCU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 21, MICH 9 0.00 75.3% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.08 - 2.08 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.08)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 9

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.3%

Win Probability (After): 75.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 9:15 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 25) Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 6 yds to the TCU 31 - TCU 21, MICH 9 0.29 75.2% 0.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.36 - 2.07 = 0.29

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.07)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 9

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 75.2%

Win Probability (After): 75.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:45 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 4 at TCU 31) Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 34 - TCU 21, MICH 9 0.00 77.9% -3.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 66

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 2.23 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.23)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.24)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 9

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.9%

Win Probability (After): 74.9%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:35 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 1 at TCU 34) Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 9 0.56 77.5% 1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 64

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.71 - 2.14 = 0.56

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.14)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.71)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 9

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 77.5%

Win Probability (After): 78.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 8:01 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 36) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin Johnston - TCU 21, MICH 9 -0.50 82.3% -4.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.19 - 2.68 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.68)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.19)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 9

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 82.3%

Win Probability (After): 78.3%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:56 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 10 at TCU 36) Max Duggan pass incomplete - TCU 21, MICH 9 -0.93 81.9% -2.5%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 2.13 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.13)

Score Difference (End): 12 (13.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 9

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 81.9%

Win Probability (After): 79.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:56 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 10 at TCU 36) Timeout TCU, clock 07:56 - TCU 21, MICH 9 0.00 79.4% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 1.20 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 12 (13.20)

Score Difference (End): 12 (13.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 9

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 79.4%

Win Probability (After): 79.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 7:44 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 10 at TCU 36) Max Duggan pass intercepted Mike Sainristil return for 8 yds to the TCU 45 - TCU 21, MICH 9 -3.61 76.2% -8.1%

Play Type: Interception Return

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 45

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.43 - 1.17 = -3.61

Score Difference (Before): 12 (13.17)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-9.57)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 21, MICH 9

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 19 yards

Win Probability (Before): 76.2%

Win Probability (After): 68.1%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 7:30 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 45) Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the TCU 42 - TCU 21, MICH 9 -0.32 31.8% -1.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 42

Started Drive at: TCU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 2.40 = -0.32

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-9.60)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-9.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 9

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.8%

Win Probability (After): 30.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 7:00 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 7 at TCU 42) Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 9 1.10 30.6% 1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 34

Started Drive at: TCU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.21 - 2.11 = 1.10

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-9.89)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-8.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 9

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 30.6%

Win Probability (After): 32.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (9)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 6:32 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 34) Ronnie Bell 34 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick) - TCU 21, MICH 16 3.73 31.0% 16.6%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 45

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.27 = 3.73

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-8.73)

Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 45 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.0%

Win Probability (After): 47.6%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 6:32 ESPN team id 2628 (Kickoff at TCU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 21, MICH 16 0.00 58.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.34 - 1.34 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.34)

Score Difference (End): 5 (6.34)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.7%

Win Probability (After): 58.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:24 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 25) Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 46 yds to the Mich 29 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 16 2.80 58.7% 6.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 29

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.13 - 1.33 = 2.80

Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.33)

Score Difference (End): 5 (9.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 1 play, 46 yards

Win Probability (Before): 58.7%

Win Probability (After): 65.0%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 6:05 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at MICH 29) Emari Demercado run for 15 yds to the Mich 14 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 16 0.84 64.8% 2.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 14

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.04 - 4.20 = 0.84

Score Difference (Before): 5 (9.20)

Score Difference (End): 5 (10.04)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 61 yards

Win Probability (Before): 64.8%

Win Probability (After): 66.7%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 5:35 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at MICH 14) Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the Mich 12 - TCU 21, MICH 16 -0.50 67.0% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 12

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.59 - 5.09 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 5 (10.09)

Score Difference (End): 5 (9.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 63 yards

Win Probability (Before): 67.0%

Win Probability (After): 66.5%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:45 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 8 at MICH 12) Emari Demercado run for 6 yds to the Mich 6 - TCU 21, MICH 16 0.49 66.5% 0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 6

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.09 - 4.59 = 0.49

Score Difference (Before): 5 (9.59)

Score Difference (End): 5 (10.09)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 69 yards

Win Probability (Before): 66.5%

Win Probability (After): 66.8%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:35 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 2 at MICH 6) Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 16 1.40 69.9% 2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 1

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.50 - 5.10 = 1.40

Score Difference (Before): 5 (10.10)

Score Difference (End): 5 (11.50)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 21, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 74 yards

Win Probability (Before): 69.9%

Win Probability (After): 72.4%

Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:25 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & Goal at MICH 1) Emari Demercado 1 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 28, MICH 16 0.49 74.2% 4.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.51 = 0.49

Score Difference (Before): 5 (11.51)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 28, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards

Win Probability (Before): 74.2%

Win Probability (After): 79.1%

Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 4:25 ESPN team id 130 (Kickoff at MICH 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds , A.J. Henning return for 21 yds to the Mich 21 - TCU 28, MICH 16 -1.25 24.0% -1.4%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 79

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.27 - -0.02 = -1.25

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.02)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-13.27)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 28, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.0%

Win Probability (After): 22.6%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 4:05 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 21) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 8 yds to the Mich 29 - TCU 28, MICH 16 0.68 22.7% 1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 71

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - -0.25 = 0.68

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.25)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-11.56)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 28, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 22.7%

Win Probability (After): 24.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 3:30 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 2 at MICH 29) Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 28 - TCU 28, MICH 16 -1.17 24.3% -1.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 72

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.75 - 0.42 = -1.17

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.58)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 28, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.3%

Win Probability (After): 22.4%

Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:52 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 3 at MICH 28) Dee Winters 29 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) - TCU 34, MICH 16 -7.25 19.2% -13.7%

Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -8.00 - -0.75 = -7.25

Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.75)

Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 34, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 19.2%

Win Probability (After): 5.5%

Away Score: 28 (34) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 2:52 ESPN team id 130 (Kickoff at MICH 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds , A.J. Henning return for 31 yds to the Mich 31 - TCU 34, MICH 16 -0.53 5.3% -0.1%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 69

Started Drive at: MICH 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.03 - -0.50 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.50)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-19.03)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 34, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.3%

Win Probability (After): 5.2%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:40 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 31) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Donovan Edwards - TCU 34, MICH 16 -0.85 6.2% -1.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69

Started Drive at: MICH 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.63 - 0.22 = -0.85

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.78)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.63)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 34, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.2%

Win Probability (After): 5.2%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:33 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 10 at MICH 31) TCU Penalty, Defensive Holding (Josh Newton) to the Mich 41 for a 1ST down - TCU 34, MICH 16 1.55 5.3% 1.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 59

Started Drive at: MICH 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - -0.65 = 1.55

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.65)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.10)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 34, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.3%

Win Probability (After): 6.7%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 2:24 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 41) J.J. McCarthy run for 39 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST down - TCU 34, MICH 16 3.29 6.8% 4.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 20

Started Drive at: MICH 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.20 - 0.92 = 3.29

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.08)

Score Difference (End): -18 (-13.80)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 34, MICH 16

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 39 yards

Win Probability (Before): 6.8%

Win Probability (After): 11.0%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 16 (16)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:47 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 20) J.J. McCarthy 20 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) - TCU 34, MICH 22 1.77 9.9% 12.8%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 31

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 4.23 = 1.77

Score Difference (Before): -18 (-13.77)

Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 34, MICH 22

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 59 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.9%

Win Probability (After): 22.7%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 16 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 1:47 ESPN team id 2628 (Kickoff at TCU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds , Derius Davis return for 22 yds to the TCU 22 - TCU 34, MICH 22 -1.12 86.1% -5.7%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 78

Started Drive at: TCU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 2.06 = -1.12

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.06)

Score Difference (End): 12 (12.95)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 34, MICH 22

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.1%

Win Probability (After): 80.4%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 1:30 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 22) Emari Demercado run for 8 yds to the TCU 30 - TCU 34, MICH 22 0.55 86.1% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 70

Started Drive at: TCU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.55 - 2.00 = 0.55

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.00)

Score Difference (End): 12 (14.55)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 34, MICH 22

Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 86.1%

Win Probability (After): 86.9%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:53 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 2 at TCU 30) Emari Demercado run for 69 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST down - TCU 34, MICH 22 4.02 89.2% 2.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 1

Started Drive at: TCU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.59 - 2.57 = 4.02

Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.57)

Score Difference (End): 12 (18.59)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 34, MICH 22

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 77 yards

Win Probability (Before): 89.2%

Win Probability (After): 91.6%

Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:49 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & Goal at MICH 1) Max Duggan 1 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 41, MICH 22 0.41 92.9% 3.6%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 22

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.59 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): 12 (18.59)

Score Difference (End): 19 (19.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 41, MICH 22

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 78 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.9%

Win Probability (After): 96.5%

Away Score: 34 (41) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:49 ESPN team id 130 (Kickoff at MICH 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 41, MICH 22 0.00 4.0% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.39 - -0.39 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-19.39)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-19.39)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 41, MICH 22

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.0%

Win Probability (After): 4.0%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:41 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 25) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 20 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST down - TCU 41, MICH 22 1.56 4.0% 0.4%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 55

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.18 - -0.38 = 1.56

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-19.38)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-17.82)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 41, MICH 22

Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.0%

Win Probability (After): 4.4%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:16 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 45) TCU Penalty, Defensive Holding (Millard Bradford) to the TCU 45 for a 1ST down - TCU 41, MICH 22 0.90 4.1% 0.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 45

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 1.18 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-17.82)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-16.93)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 41, MICH 22

Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.1%

Win Probability (After): 4.6%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:09 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 45) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 44 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST down - TCU 41, MICH 22 4.28 4.2% 5.0%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 1

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.33 - 2.05 = 4.28

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-16.95)

Score Difference (End): -19 (-12.67)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 41, MICH 22

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 64 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.2%

Win Probability (After): 9.2%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 22 (22)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:03 ESPN team id 130 (1st & Goal at TCU 1) Kalel Mullings 1 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthy Run for Two-Point Conversion) - TCU 41, MICH 30 1.73 8.6% 9.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 6.27 = 1.73

Score Difference (Before): -19 (-12.73)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 41, MICH 30

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 65 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.6%

Win Probability (After): 18.5%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 22 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q3 0:03 ESPN team id 2628 (Kickoff at TCU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 41, MICH 30 0.00 87.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.13 - 2.13 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.13)

Score Difference (End): 11 (13.13)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 41, MICH 30

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 87.7%

Win Probability (After): 87.7%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q3 0:00 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 25) Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 27 Emari Demercado fumbled, forced by Mazi Smith, recovered by Mich Mazi Smith - TCU 41, MICH 30 -5.91 88.0% -19.6%

Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 27

Started Drive at: TCU 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.78 - 2.13 = -5.91

Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.13)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.22)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 41, MICH 30

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.0%

Win Probability (After): 68.4%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:40 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 27) Donovan Edwards run for 9 yds to the TCU 18 - TCU 41, MICH 30 0.90 31.7% 3.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 18

Started Drive at: TCU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.69 - 3.79 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.21)

Score Difference (End): -11 (-6.31)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 41, MICH 30

Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 31.7%

Win Probability (After): 34.8%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 30 (30)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:13 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 1 at TCU 18) Roman Wilson 18 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthy Pass to Ronnie Bell for Two-Point Conversion) - TCU 41, MICH 38 3.39 33.5% 12.9%

Play Type: Rushing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 27

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 4.61 = 3.39

Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.39)

Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 41, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards

Win Probability (Before): 33.5%

Win Probability (After): 46.5%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 30 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 14:13 ESPN team id 2628 (Kickoff at TCU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 64 yds , Derius Davis return for 20 yds to the TCU 21 - TCU 41, MICH 38 -1.17 57.1% -1.6%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 79

Started Drive at: TCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.25 - 1.42 = -1.17

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.42)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.25)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 41, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 57.1%

Win Probability (After): 55.5%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:55 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 21) Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 24 - TCU 41, MICH 38 -0.52 56.7% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 76

Started Drive at: TCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.78 - 1.29 = -0.52

Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.29)

Score Difference (End): 3 (3.78)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 41, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.7%

Win Probability (After): 56.5%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:22 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 7 at TCU 24) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jordan Hudson - TCU 41, MICH 38 -1.02 56.2% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76

Started Drive at: TCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.21 - 0.81 = -1.02

Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.81)

Score Difference (End): 3 (2.79)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 41, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 56.2%

Win Probability (After): 53.3%

Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:07 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 7 at TCU 24) Quentin Johnston 76 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 48, MICH 38 7.18 53.6% 23.2%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 99

Started Drive at: TCU 21

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -0.18 = 7.18

Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.82)

Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 48, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 79 yards

Win Probability (Before): 53.6%

Win Probability (After): 76.9%

Away Score: 41 (48) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 13:07 ESPN team id 130 (Kickoff at MICH 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds , A.J. Henning return for 26 yds to the MICHIGAN 39 MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Block (Leon Franklin) to the Mich 13 - TCU 48, MICH 38 -1.62 20.9% -3.9%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 87

Started Drive at: MICH 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.44 - 0.18 = -1.62

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-18.01)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-11.44)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 48, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 20.9%

Win Probability (After): 17.0%

Away Score: 48 (48) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:45 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 13) J.J. McCarthy run for 6 yds to the Mich 19 - TCU 48, MICH 38 0.01 18.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 81

Started Drive at: MICH 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.33 - -0.34 = 0.01

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.34)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.33)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 48, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 18.1%

Win Probability (After): 17.9%

Away Score: 48 (48) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:27 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 4 at MICH 19) J.J. McCarthy sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 12 yards to the Mich 7 MICHIGAN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (J.J. McCarthy) to the Mich 7 - TCU 48, MICH 38 -2.24 17.8% -3.6%

Play Type: Sack

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 93

Started Drive at: MICH 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.57 - -0.23 = -2.24

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.33)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-12.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 48, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, -6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 17.8%

Win Probability (After): 14.2%

Away Score: 48 (48) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:22 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 16 at MICH 7) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Donovan Edwards - TCU 48, MICH 38 -0.75 13.9% -2.0%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 93

Started Drive at: MICH 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.28 - -2.53 = -0.75

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-12.53)

Score Difference (End): -10 (-13.28)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 48, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 13.9%

Win Probability (After): 11.9%

Away Score: 48 (48) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 12:09 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 16 at MICH 7) Brad Robbins punt for 40 yds , Derius Davis returns for 31 yds to the Mich 16 - TCU 48, MICH 38 -1.84 11.7% -2.6%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 16

Started Drive at: MICH 13

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -5.14 - -3.31 = -1.84

Score Difference (Before): -10 (-13.31)

Score Difference (End): 10 (15.14)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 48, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, -6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.7%

Win Probability (After): 9.1%

Away Score: 48 (48) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 12:00 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at MICH 16) Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the Mich 15 - TCU 48, MICH 38 -0.56 90.7% -0.3%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 15

Started Drive at: MICH 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.57 - 5.13 = -0.56

Score Difference (Before): 10 (15.13)

Score Difference (End): 10 (14.57)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 48, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.7%

Win Probability (After): 90.4%

Away Score: 48 (48) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 11:20 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 9 at MICH 15) Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 2 yds to the Mich 13 - TCU 48, MICH 38 -0.65 91.0% -2.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 13

Started Drive at: MICH 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.90 - 4.55 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 10 (14.55)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 48, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.0%

Win Probability (After): 88.1%

Away Score: 48 (48) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:43 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 7 at MICH 13) Timeout TCU, clock 10:43 - TCU 48, MICH 38 0.00 90.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 13

Started Drive at: MICH 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.90 - 3.90 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.90)

Score Difference (End): 10 (13.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 48, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.6%

Away Score: 48 (48) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:20 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 7 at MICH 13) Emari Demercado run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 15 - TCU 48, MICH 38 -1.25 91.5% -4.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 15

Started Drive at: MICH 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.61 - 3.86 = -1.25

Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.86)

Score Difference (End): 10 (12.61)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 48, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.5%

Win Probability (After): 87.4%

Away Score: 48 (48) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 10:02 ESPN team id 2628 (4th & 9 at MICH 16) Griffin Kell 33 Yd Field Goal - TCU 51, MICH 38 0.36 90.0% 3.0%

Play Type: Field Goal Good

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 15

Started Drive at: MICH 16

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.64 = 0.36

Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.64)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 90.0%

Win Probability (After): 93.0%

Away Score: 48 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 10:02 ESPN team id 130 (Kickoff at MICH 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 51, MICH 38 0.00 14.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Kickoff

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 0.64 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-12.36)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-12.36)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.2%

Win Probability (After): 14.2%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:55 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 25) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete - TCU 51, MICH 38 -0.48 14.2% -0.9%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.15 - 0.62 = -0.48

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-12.38)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-12.85)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 14.2%

Win Probability (After): 13.3%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:51 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 10 at MICH 25) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston Loveland - TCU 51, MICH 38 -0.84 12.3% -2.1%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.72 - 0.12 = -0.84

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-12.88)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.72)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.3%

Win Probability (After): 10.3%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 9:42 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 10 at MICH 25) J.J. McCarthy run for 1 yd to the Mich 26 - TCU 51, MICH 38 -0.93 10.1% -1.4%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.68 - -0.75 = -0.93

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-13.75)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-14.68)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.1%

Win Probability (After): 8.8%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 8:50 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 9 at MICH 26) Brad Robbins punt for 64 yds, downed at the TCU 10 - TCU 51, MICH 38 1.32 8.9% -0.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 90

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.34 - -1.67 = 1.32

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-14.67)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.34)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 8.9%

Win Probability (After): 8.2%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 8:40 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 10) Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the TCU 13 - TCU 51, MICH 38 -0.36 93.7% -0.8%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 87

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.12 - 0.24 = -0.36

Score Difference (Before): 13 (13.24)

Score Difference (End): 13 (12.88)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.7%

Win Probability (After): 92.9%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:55 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 7 at TCU 13) Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 5 yds to the TCU 18 - TCU 51, MICH 38 0.21 94.0% -0.6%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 82

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.12 - -0.09 = 0.21

Score Difference (Before): 13 (12.91)

Score Difference (End): 13 (13.12)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards

Win Probability (Before): 94.0%

Win Probability (After): 93.4%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 7:00 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 2 at TCU 18) Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 16 - TCU 51, MICH 38 -1.92 93.6% -3.2%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 84

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.71 - 0.21 = -1.92

Score Difference (Before): 13 (13.21)

Score Difference (End): 13 (11.29)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 93.6%

Win Probability (After): 90.3%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 6:46 ESPN team id 2628 (4th & 4 at TCU 16) Jordy Sandy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the Mich 44 - TCU 51, MICH 38 -0.65 92.6% -2.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 56

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.18 - -1.54 = -0.65

Score Difference (Before): 13 (11.46)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-10.82)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards

Win Probability (Before): 92.6%

Win Probability (After): 89.8%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 6:30 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 44) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 15 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST down - TCU 51, MICH 38 1.01 9.8% 0.9%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 41

Started Drive at: MICH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.26 - 2.24 = 1.01

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-10.76)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-9.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.8%

Win Probability (After): 10.8%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 6:19 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 41) TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson) to the TCU 26 for a 1ST down - TCU 51, MICH 38 0.90 9.8% 1.5%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 26

Started Drive at: MICH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.14 - 3.24 = 0.90

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-9.76)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-8.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.8%

Win Probability (After): 11.3%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 6:13 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 26) Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the TCU 20 - TCU 51, MICH 38 0.23 10.9% 0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 20

Started Drive at: MICH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.46 - 4.23 = 0.23

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-8.77)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-8.54)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 10.9%

Win Probability (After): 11.4%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:45 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 4 at TCU 20) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete - TCU 51, MICH 38 -0.46 11.9% -1.3%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20

Started Drive at: MICH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.83 - 4.30 = -0.46

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-8.70)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-9.17)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.9%

Win Probability (After): 10.6%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:40 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 4 at TCU 20) Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST down - TCU 51, MICH 38 1.09 11.4% 0.7%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 15

Started Drive at: MICH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.80 - 3.71 = 1.09

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-9.29)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-8.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.4%

Win Probability (After): 12.1%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:15 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at TCU 15) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 7 yds to the TCU 8 - TCU 51, MICH 38 0.41 11.1% 1.7%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 8

Started Drive at: MICH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.31 - 4.90 = 0.41

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-8.10)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-7.69)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards

Win Probability (Before): 11.1%

Win Probability (After): 12.8%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 5:00 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 3 at TCU 8) Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 10 - TCU 51, MICH 38 -1.13 12.9% -2.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 10

Started Drive at: MICH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.23 - 5.36 = -1.13

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-7.64)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-8.77)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.9%

Win Probability (After): 10.8%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 4:29 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 5 at TCU 10) J.J. McCarthy run for 6 yds to the TCU 4 for a 1ST down - TCU 51, MICH 38 1.69 9.2% 4.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 4

Started Drive at: MICH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.92 - 4.23 = 1.69

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-8.77)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-7.08)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 7 plays, 37 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.2%

Win Probability (After): 13.9%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:45 ESPN team id 130 (1st & Goal at TCU 4) Kalel Mullings run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 5 - TCU 51, MICH 38 -0.60 12.9% 0.0%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 5

Started Drive at: MICH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.36 - 5.96 = -0.60

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-7.04)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-7.64)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 8 plays, 36 yards

Win Probability (Before): 12.9%

Win Probability (After): 12.9%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:18 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & Goal at TCU 5) Roman Wilson 5 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick) - TCU 51, MICH 45 1.59 9.1% 16.8%

Play Type: Passing Touchdown

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.41 = 1.59

Score Difference (Before): -13 (-7.59)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 9.1%

Win Probability (After): 26.0%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:18 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 11 at MICH 35) Timeout TCU, clock 03:18 - TCU 51, MICH 38 0.00 24.6% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99

Started Drive at: MICH 44

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 7.00 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.08)

Score Difference (End): -13 (-6.00)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 9 plays, 41 yards

Win Probability (Before): 24.6%

Win Probability (After): 24.6%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 3:18 ESPN team id 2628 (Kickoff at TCU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds , Derius Davis return for 10 yds to the TCU 10 - TCU 51, MICH 38 -1.35 99.1% -0.2%

Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense)

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 90

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.26 - 1.09 = -1.35

Score Difference (Before): 13 (14.09)

Score Difference (End): 13 (12.74)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 38

Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.1%

Win Probability (After): 99.0%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 3:05 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 10) Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the TCU 12 - TCU 51, MICH 45 -0.50 99.2% -16.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 88

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - 0.40 = -0.50

Score Difference (Before): 13 (13.40)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.90)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards

Win Probability (Before): 99.2%

Win Probability (After): 83.1%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 2:20 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 8 at TCU 12) Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the TCU 19 - TCU 51, MICH 45 0.05 88.6% -6.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 81

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 0.15 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.15)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.20)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards

Win Probability (Before): 88.6%

Win Probability (After): 82.0%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:40 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 1 at TCU 19) Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST down - TCU 51, MICH 45 0.84 91.2% 0.1%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 79

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - 0.14 = 0.84

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.14)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.99)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards

Win Probability (Before): 91.2%

Win Probability (After): 91.3%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:07 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at TCU 21) Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 23 - TCU 51, MICH 45 -0.21 97.0% -3.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 77

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.48 - 0.69 = -0.21

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.69)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.0%

Win Probability (After): 93.3%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3

Q4 1:07 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 8 at TCU 23) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 01:07 - TCU 51, MICH 45 0.00 96.7% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.48 - 0.48 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.48)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.48)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.7%

Win Probability (After): 96.7%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:03 ESPN team id 2628 (2nd & 8 at TCU 23) Max Duggan run for 4 yds to the TCU 27 - TCU 51, MICH 45 0.05 97.5% -0.5%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 73

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.49 - 0.44 = 0.05

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.44)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.5%

Win Probability (After): 97.0%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 1:03 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 4 at TCU 27) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 01:03 - TCU 51, MICH 45 0.00 97.1% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.49 - 0.49 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.49)

Score Difference (End): 6 (6.49)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.1%

Win Probability (After): 97.1%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:59 ESPN team id 2628 (3rd & 4 at TCU 27) Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 3 yds to the TCU 30 - TCU 51, MICH 45 -0.61 97.4% -1.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 70

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - 0.42 = -0.61

Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.42)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.4%

Win Probability (After): 95.6%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1

Q4 0:59 ESPN team id 2628 (4th & 1 at TCU 30) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 00:59 - TCU 51, MICH 45 0.00 96.2% 0.0%

Play Type: Timeout

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - -0.19 = 0.00

Score Difference (Before): 6 (5.81)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.81)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.2%

Win Probability (After): 96.2%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:59 ESPN team id 2628 (4th & 1 at TCU 30) TCU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TCU 25 - TCU 51, MICH 45 -0.17 96.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 75

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.25 - -0.08 = -0.17

Score Difference (Before): 6 (5.92)

Score Difference (End): 6 (5.75)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.4%

Win Probability (After): 96.0%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:52 ESPN team id 2628 (4th & 6 at TCU 25) Jordy Sandy punt for 50 yds , A.J. Henning returns for no gain to the Mich 25 - TCU 51, MICH 45 -0.26 96.8% -5.8%

Play Type: Punt

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: TCU 10

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.60 - -0.34 = -0.26

Score Difference (Before): 6 (5.66)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.40)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 6 plays, 20 yards

Win Probability (Before): 96.8%

Win Probability (After): 91.1%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:45 ESPN team id 130 (1st & 10 at MICH 25) J.J. McCarthy run for 5 yds to the Mich 30 - TCU 51, MICH 45 0.26 5.8% 2.6%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - 0.39 = 0.26

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.61)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.35)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.8%

Win Probability (After): 8.4%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:39 ESPN team id 130 (2nd & 5 at MICH 30) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Roman Wilson - TCU 51, MICH 45 -0.10 5.6% 0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.45 = -0.10

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.55)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.65)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.6%

Win Probability (After): 6.3%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:39 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 5 at MICH 30) MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Colston Loveland) to the Mich 25 - TCU 51, MICH 45 -0.16 5.4% -0.4%

Play Type: Penalty

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 75

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.14 - 0.30 = -0.16

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.70)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.86)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.4%

Win Probability (After): 4.9%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:35 ESPN team id 130 (3rd & 10 at MICH 25) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Donovan Edwards - TCU 51, MICH 45 -0.53 5.1% -0.7%

Play Type: Pass Incompletion

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.32 - 0.22 = -0.53

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.78)

Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.32)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards

Win Probability (Before): 5.1%

Win Probability (After): 4.4%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2

Q4 0:25 ESPN team id 130 (4th & 10 at MICH 25) Donovan Edwards pass complete to Colston Loveland for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 24 for a 1ST down - TCU 51, MICH 45 -3.09 4.2% -2.8%

Play Type: Pass Reception

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 24

Started Drive at: MICH 25

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.13 - -0.04 = -3.09

Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.04)

Score Difference (End): 6 (9.13)

Change of Possession: 1

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 4 plays, 4 yards

Win Probability (Before): 4.2%

Win Probability (After): 1.4%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0

Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link

Q4 0:00 ESPN team id 2628 (1st & 10 at MICH 24) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 25 - TCU 51, MICH 45 0.83 97.1% 2.9%

Play Type: Rush

Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 25

Started Drive at: MICH 24

ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.23 - 1.40 = 0.83

Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.40)

Score Difference (End): 6 (8.23)

Change of Possession: 0

Score: TCU 51, MICH 45

Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards

Win Probability (Before): 97.1%

Win Probability (After): 100.0%

Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45)

Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0