Win Probability
Game Excitement Index: 5.69 | Odds: MICH -8, O/U 56.0 | Download Chart
Expected Points
Team Stats [show/hide]
| Overall |
|
|
|---|---|---|
| EPA/Play | 0.04 54th %ile | -0.06 37th %ile |
| Success Rate | 56% 96th %ile | 45% 71st %ile |
| Yards/Play | 7.09 81st %ile | 7.96 92nd %ile |
| EPA/Dropback | -0.21 26th %ile | -0.08 40th %ile |
| EPA/Rush | 0.23 83rd %ile | -0.03 43rd %ile |
| Yards/Dropback | 7.50 73rd %ile | 8.77 86th %ile |
| Explosive Play Rate | 6% 26th %ile | 12% 86th %ile |
| 3rd Down Success Rate | 42% 53rd %ile | 25% 12th %ile |
| Red Zone Success Rate | 68% 90th %ile | 45% 59th %ile |
| Def Run Stuff Rate | 25% 26th %ile | 5% 0th %ile |
| Havoc Rate | 10% 52nd %ile | 20% 93rd %ile |
| Expected Points | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 85 | 92 |
| Total EPA | -4.78 | -0.83 |
| Offensive EPA | 2.85 | -4.16 |
| Special Teams EPA | -7.46 | -0.32 |
| Penalty EPA | -1.04 | -0.31 |
| Non-Scrimmage/Misc EPA | 0.87 | 3.96 |
| Production | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 70 | 75 |
| Yards | 496 | 597 |
| Yards/Play | 7.09 | 7.96 |
| EPA | 2.85 | -4.16 |
| EPA/Play | 0.04 | -0.06 |
| Passes | 30 (43%) | 39 (52%) |
| Yards | 225 | 342 |
| Yards/Play | 7.50 | 8.77 |
| EPA | -6.42 | -3.23 |
| EPA/Play | -0.21 | -0.08 |
| Rushes | 40 (57%) | 36 (48%) |
| Yards | 270 | 222 |
| Yards/Play | 6.75 | 6.34 |
| EPA | 9.27 | -0.93 |
| EPA/Play | 0.23 | -0.03 |
| Rushing | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 70 | 75 |
| Rushes | 40 (57%) | 36 (48%) |
| Power Run Attempts (Down ≥ 3, Distance ≤ 2) | 3 (8%) | 0 (0%) |
| Successful Power Runs (Rate) | 3 (100%) | 0 (0%) |
| Stuffed Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 0) | 2 (5%) | 9 (25%) |
| Stopped Runs (Yds Gained ≤ 2) | 14 (35%) | 12 (33%) |
| Opportunity Runs (Yds Gained ≥ 4) | 20 (50%) | 17 (47%) |
| OL Line Yards | 80.4 | 54.2 |
| Per Carry | 2.01 | 1.51 |
| Highlight Yards | 111.5 | 108.5 |
| Per Rush Opportunity | 5.58 | 6.38 |
| Explosiveness | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 85 | 92 |
| Scrimmage Plays | 70 | 75 |
| Explosive Plays | 4 (6%) | 9 (12%) |
| When Passing (EPA > 2.4) | 2 (7%) | 6 (15%) |
| When Rushing (EPA > 1.8) | 2 (5%) | 3 (8%) |
| EPA w/o Explosive Plays | -13.27 | -36.71 |
| EPA/Play | -0.20 | -0.56 |
| When Passing | -16.40 | -25.75 |
| EPA/Play | -0.55 | -0.66 |
| When Rushing | 3.14 | -10.96 |
| EPA/Play | 0.08 | -0.33 |
| Situational | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Successful Plays (EPA > 0) | 39 (56%) | 34 (45%) |
| When Passing | 10 (33%) | 17 (44%) |
| When Rushing | 29 (73%) | 17 (47%) |
| On Standard Downs | 32 (56%) | 26 (45%) |
| On Passing Downs | 7 (54%) | 8 (47%) |
| On Early Downs | 31 (57%) | 31 (52%) |
| On Late Downs | 8 (50%) | 3 (20%) |
| During "Middle 8" | 4 (50%) | 6 (50%) |
| Early Downs | 54 | 60 |
| First Downs Created | 11 (20%) | 14 (23%) |
| EPA | 1.09 | 15.60 |
| EPA/Play | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| Passes | 21 (39%) | 29 (48%) |
| Rushes | 33 (61%) | 31 (52%) |
| Successful Passes (Rate) | 8 (38%) | 16 (55%) |
| Successful Rushes (Rate) | 23 (70%) | 15 (48%) |
| "Middle 8" Plays | 8 | 12 |
| EPA | -2.02 | 4.04 |
| EPA/play | -0.25 | 0.34 |
| Passes | 4 (50%) | 9 (75%) |
| Rushes | 4 (50%) | 3 (25%) |
| Successful Passes (Rate) | 0 (0%) | 4 (44%) |
| Successful Rushes (Rate) | 4 (100%) | 2 (67%) |
| Drives | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total | 16 | 18 |
| Avg Starting Field Position | Own 22 | Own 31 |
| Plays/Drive | 6.44 | 5.49 |
| Yards/Drive | 43.79 | 37.93 |
| Available Yards % | 56% | 55% |
| Defensive | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 75 | 70 |
| Stop Rate | 45% | 36% |
| Havoc Plays Created | 15 (20%) | 7 (10%) |
| Passing | 9 (23%) | 4 (13%) |
| Rushing | 6 (17%) | 3 (8%) |
| TFLs Generated | 13 | 4 |
| Passing | 7 | 2 |
| Rushing | 6 | 2 |
| Sacks Generated | 4 (10%) | 1 (3%) |
| Passes Defensed | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 2 | 2 |
| Fumbles Forced | 1 | 1 |
| Turnovers | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Turnovers | 3 | 4 |
| Fumbles | 1 | 3 |
| Fumbles Lost | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles Recovered | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions | 2 | 2 |
| Turnover Margin | 1 | -1 |
| Expected Turnovers | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Expected Turnover Margin | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| Turnover Luck (pts) | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Special Teams | |
|
|---|---|---|
| Total Plays | 15 | 17 |
| Total EPA | -7.46 | -0.32 |
| Field Goal EPA | 0.36 | 5.19 |
| Punting EPA | -3.28 | -2.12 |
| Kickoff Return EPA | -4.55 | -3.39 |
TCU [show/hide]
| Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | |||||||
| Max Duggan | 14/29, 225 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, 1 Sck, 46.5 xQBR, 2.25 DETMER | 7.50 | -0.21 | -6.42 | 33% | -19.0% | |
| Rush attempts | |||||||
| Max Duggan | 14 carries, 64 yds, 2 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 4.57 | 0.38 | 5.27 | 79% | -8.0% | |
| Kendre Miller | 8 carries, 57 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 7.12 | 0.33 | 2.60 | 75% | 3.0% | |
| TEAM | 1 carry, -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | -1.00 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 100% | 3.0% | |
| Emari Demercado | 17 carries, 150 yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) | 8.82 | 0.03 | 0.57 | 65% | -22.0% | |
| Pass targets | |||||||
| Quentin Johnston | 6 catches (9 targets), 163 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 27.17 | 0.89 | 8.05 | 33% | 16.0% | |
| Taye Barber | 2 catches (3 targets), 12 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.00 | 0.47 | 1.40 | 67% | 2.0% | |
| Jared Wiley | 1 catch (1 target), 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.00 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 100% | 0.0% | |
| Derius Davis | 2 catches (3 targets), 12 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.00 | 0.09 | 0.28 | 67% | 1.0% | |
| Jordan Hudson | 2 catches (4 targets), 34 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 17.00 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 50% | -1.0% | |
| Emari Demercado | 1 catch (1 target), -2 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | -2.00 | -1.92 | -1.92 | 0% | -3.0% | |
| Kendre Miller | 0 catches (2 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 0.00 | -0.96 | -1.92 | 0% | -7.0% | |
| Savion Williams | 0 catches (3 targets), 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 0.00 | -1.06 | -3.17 | 0% | -5.0% | |
Michigan [show/hide]
| Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dropbacks | |||||||
| J.J. McCarthy | 20/32, 343 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 3 Scks, 73.6 xQBR, 0.57 DETMER | 9.80 | 0.57 | 19.90 | 49% | 60.0% | |
| Donovan Edwards | 1/1, -1 yd, 0 TD, 0 INT, 0 Scks, 38.2 xQBR, 0.00 DETMER | -1.00 | -3.09 | -3.09 | 0% | -3.0% | |
| Colston Loveland | 0/0, 0 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, 1 Sck, 41.3 xQBR, 0.00 DETMER | 0.00 | -3.84 | -3.84 | 0% | -5.0% | |
| TEAM | 0/2, 0 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 0 Scks, 25.1 xQBR, 0.00 DETMER | 0.00 | -8.10 | -16.19 | 0% | -34.0% | |
| Rush attempts | |||||||
| J.J. McCarthy | 7 carries, 82 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 11.71 | 0.82 | 5.75 | 71% | 23.0% | |
| Roman Wilson | 1 carry, 18 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 18.00 | 3.39 | 3.39 | 100% | 13.0% | |
| Donovan Edwards | 23 carries, 119 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 5.17 | -0.12 | -2.79 | 43% | -3.0% | |
| Kalel Mullings | 5 carries, 3 yds, 1 TD, 1 Fum (1 lost) | 0.60 | -1.45 | -7.27 | 20% | -4.0% | |
| Pass targets | |||||||
| Roman Wilson | 5 catches (6 targets), 104 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 20.80 | 2.03 | 12.18 | 83% | 35.0% | |
| Ronnie Bell | 6 catches (8 targets), 135 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 22.50 | 1.13 | 9.06 | 62% | 22.0% | |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 catch (1 target), 32 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 32.00 | 3.59 | 3.59 | 100% | 8.0% | |
| Cornelius Johnson | 2 catches (3 targets), 30 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 15.00 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 67% | 2.0% | |
| Donovan Edwards | 1 catch (4 targets), 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 8.00 | -0.23 | -0.92 | 25% | -2.0% | |
| Colston Loveland | 4 catches (7 targets), 36 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 9.00 | -0.17 | -1.21 | 43% | 6.0% | |
| A.J. Henning | 2 catches (2 targets), -3 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | -1.50 | -0.86 | -1.71 | 0% | -2.0% | |
Big Plays [show/hide]
As determined by absolute EPA.
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:22 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 34) Bud Clark 41 Yd Interception Return (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 7, MICH 0 | -8.94 | 71.9% | -19.9% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 99 Started Drive at: MICH 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 1.94 = -8.94 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.94) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 7, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 71.9% Win Probability (After): 52.0% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 2:52 | |
(3rd & 3 at MICH 28) Dee Winters 29 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) - TCU 34, MICH 16 | -7.25 | 19.2% | -13.7% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 99 Started Drive at: MICH 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -8.00 - -0.75 = -7.25 Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.75) Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 34, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.2% Win Probability (After): 5.5% Away Score: 28 (34) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:07 | |
(3rd & 7 at TCU 24) Quentin Johnston 76 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 48, MICH 38 | 7.18 | 53.6% | 23.2% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 99 Started Drive at: TCU 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -0.18 = 7.18 Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.82) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 48, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 79 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.6% Win Probability (After): 76.9% Away Score: 41 (48) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 13:08 | |
(1st & Goal at TCU 1) Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the TCU 1 Kalel Mullings fumbled, recovered by TCU Bud Clark - TCU 14, MICH 3 | -7.11 | 47.0% | -14.4% |
|
Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: MICH 49 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.73 - 6.38 = -7.11 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-4.62) Score Difference (End): 11 (11.73) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 47.0% Win Probability (After): 32.6% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 0:00 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 25) Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 27 Emari Demercado fumbled, forced by Mazi Smith, recovered by Mich Mazi Smith - TCU 41, MICH 30 | -5.91 | 88.0% | -19.6% |
|
Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 27 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.78 - 2.13 = -5.91 Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.13) Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.22) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 41, MICH 30 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.0% Win Probability (After): 68.4% Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 30 (30) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 13:28 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 49) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 50 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, MICH 3 | 4.40 | 39.7% | 7.9% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 1 Started Drive at: MICH 49 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.38 - 1.98 = 4.40 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.02) Score Difference (End): -11 (-4.62) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 1 play, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 39.7% Win Probability (After): 47.6% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:09 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 45) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 44 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST down - TCU 41, MICH 22 | 4.28 | 4.2% | 5.0% |
|
Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 1 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.33 - 2.05 = 4.28 Score Difference (Before): -19 (-16.95) Score Difference (End): -19 (-12.67) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 41, MICH 22 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 64 yards Win Probability (Before): 4.2% Win Probability (After): 9.2% Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 22 (22) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 13:35 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 27) Max Duggan pass intercepted Rod Moore return for no gain to the Mich 49 - TCU 14, MICH 3 | -4.20 | 68.2% | -7.4% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 51 Started Drive at: TCU 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.98 - 2.22 = -4.20 Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.22) Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.02) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 68.2% Win Probability (After): 60.7% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:53 | |
(2nd & 2 at TCU 30) Emari Demercado run for 69 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST down - TCU 34, MICH 22 | 4.02 | 89.2% | 2.5% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 1 Started Drive at: TCU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.59 - 2.57 = 4.02 Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.57) Score Difference (End): 12 (18.59) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 34, MICH 22 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 77 yards Win Probability (Before): 89.2% Win Probability (After): 91.6% Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 22 (22) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 10:30 | |
(4th & Goal at TCU 2) Colston Loveland sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 10 - TCU 0, MICH 0 | -3.84 | 75.4% | -4.7% |
|
Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 90 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.20 - 3.64 = -3.84 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.64) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.20) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 0, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 70 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.4% Win Probability (After): 70.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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Most Important Plays [show/hide]
As determined by absolute WPA.
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 13:07 | |
(3rd & 7 at TCU 24) Quentin Johnston 76 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 48, MICH 38 | 7.18 | 53.6% | 23.2% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 99 Started Drive at: TCU 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -0.18 = 7.18 Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.82) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 48, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 79 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.6% Win Probability (After): 76.9% Away Score: 41 (48) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 9:22 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 34) Bud Clark 41 Yd Interception Return (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 7, MICH 0 | -8.94 | 71.9% | -19.9% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 99 Started Drive at: MICH 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 1.94 = -8.94 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.94) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 7, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 71.9% Win Probability (After): 52.0% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 0:00 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 25) Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 27 Emari Demercado fumbled, forced by Mazi Smith, recovered by Mich Mazi Smith - TCU 41, MICH 30 | -5.91 | 88.0% | -19.6% |
|
Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 27 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.78 - 2.13 = -5.91 Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.13) Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.22) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 41, MICH 30 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.0% Win Probability (After): 68.4% Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 30 (30) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 3:18 | |
(2nd & Goal at TCU 5) Roman Wilson 5 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick) - TCU 51, MICH 45 | 1.59 | 9.1% | 16.8% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99 Started Drive at: MICH 44 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.41 = 1.59 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-7.59) Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.1% Win Probability (After): 26.0% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 6:32 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 34) Ronnie Bell 34 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick) - TCU 21, MICH 16 | 3.73 | 31.0% | 16.6% |
|
Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99 Started Drive at: TCU 45 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.27 = 3.73 Score Difference (Before): -12 (-8.73) Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.0% Win Probability (After): 47.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 3:05 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 10) Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the TCU 12 - TCU 51, MICH 45 | -0.50 | 99.2% | -16.1% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 88 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - 0.40 = -0.50 Score Difference (Before): 13 (13.40) Score Difference (End): 6 (5.90) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.2% Win Probability (After): 83.1% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 13:08 | |
(1st & Goal at TCU 1) Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the TCU 1 Kalel Mullings fumbled, recovered by TCU Bud Clark - TCU 14, MICH 3 | -7.11 | 47.0% | -14.4% |
|
Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: MICH 49 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.73 - 6.38 = -7.11 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-4.62) Score Difference (End): 11 (11.73) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 47.0% Win Probability (After): 32.6% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 2:52 | |
(3rd & 3 at MICH 28) Dee Winters 29 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) - TCU 34, MICH 16 | -7.25 | 19.2% | -13.7% |
|
Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 99 Started Drive at: MICH 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -8.00 - -0.75 = -7.25 Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.75) Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 34, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.2% Win Probability (After): 5.5% Away Score: 28 (34) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 14:13 | |
(2nd & 1 at TCU 18) Roman Wilson 18 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthy Pass to Ronnie Bell for Two-Point Conversion) - TCU 41, MICH 38 | 3.39 | 33.5% | 12.9% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 99 Started Drive at: TCU 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 4.61 = 3.39 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.39) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 41, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 33.5% Win Probability (After): 46.5% Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 30 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 1:47 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 20) J.J. McCarthy 20 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) - TCU 34, MICH 22 | 1.77 | 9.9% | 12.8% |
|
Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 99 Started Drive at: MICH 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 4.23 = 1.77 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-13.77) Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 34, MICH 22 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 59 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.9% Win Probability (After): 22.7% Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 16 (22) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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Scoring Plays [show/hide]
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:22 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 34) Bud Clark 41 Yd Interception Return (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 7, MICH 0 | -8.94 | 71.9% | -19.9% |
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Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 99 Started Drive at: MICH 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 1.94 = -8.94 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.94) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 7, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 71.9% Win Probability (After): 52.0% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 2:27 | |
(1st & Goal at MICH 1) Max Duggan 1 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 14, MICH 0 | 0.39 | 64.6% | 3.3% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: TCU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.61 = 0.39 Score Difference (Before): 7 (13.61) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 76 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.6% Win Probability (After): 67.9% Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 13:46 | |
(4th & 5 at TCU 25) Jake Moody 42 Yd Field Goal - TCU 14, MICH 3 | 2.28 | 30.5% | 8.5% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 24 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.72 = 2.28 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.28) Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 30.5% Win Probability (After): 39.1% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 4:56 | |
(2nd & Goal at MICH 6) Taye Barber 6 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 21, MICH 3 | 1.92 | 78.8% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99 Started Drive at: TCU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.08 = 1.92 Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.08) Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 83 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.8% Win Probability (After): 78.0% Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:00 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 42) Jake Moody 59 Yd Field Goal - TCU 21, MICH 6 | 2.50 | 20.6% | 3.4% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 41 Started Drive at: MICH 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.50 = 2.50 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.50) Score Difference (End): -15 (-15.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 6 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 20.6% Win Probability (After): 24.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 9:29 | |
(4th & Goal at TCU 4) Jake Moody 21 Yd Field Goal - TCU 21, MICH 9 | 0.41 | 23.3% | 8.5% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4 Started Drive at: MICH 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.59 = 0.41 Score Difference (Before): -15 (-12.41) Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 9 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 63 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.3% Win Probability (After): 31.8% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (9) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 6:32 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 34) Ronnie Bell 34 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick) - TCU 21, MICH 16 | 3.73 | 31.0% | 16.6% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99 Started Drive at: TCU 45 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.27 = 3.73 Score Difference (Before): -12 (-8.73) Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.0% Win Probability (After): 47.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 4:25 | |
(1st & Goal at MICH 1) Emari Demercado 1 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 28, MICH 16 | 0.49 | 74.2% | 4.9% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.51 = 0.49 Score Difference (Before): 5 (11.51) Score Difference (End): 12 (12.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 28, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 74.2% Win Probability (After): 79.1% Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 2:52 | |
(3rd & 3 at MICH 28) Dee Winters 29 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) - TCU 34, MICH 16 | -7.25 | 19.2% | -13.7% |
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Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 99 Started Drive at: MICH 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -8.00 - -0.75 = -7.25 Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.75) Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 34, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.2% Win Probability (After): 5.5% Away Score: 28 (34) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 1:47 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 20) J.J. McCarthy 20 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) - TCU 34, MICH 22 | 1.77 | 9.9% | 12.8% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 99 Started Drive at: MICH 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 4.23 = 1.77 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-13.77) Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 34, MICH 22 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 59 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.9% Win Probability (After): 22.7% Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 16 (22) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 0:49 | |
(1st & Goal at MICH 1) Max Duggan 1 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 41, MICH 22 | 0.41 | 92.9% | 3.6% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: TCU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.59 = 0.41 Score Difference (Before): 12 (18.59) Score Difference (End): 19 (19.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 41, MICH 22 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 78 yards Win Probability (Before): 92.9% Win Probability (After): 96.5% Away Score: 34 (41) Home Score: 22 (22) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:03 | |
(1st & Goal at TCU 1) Kalel Mullings 1 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthy Run for Two-Point Conversion) - TCU 41, MICH 30 | 1.73 | 8.6% | 9.9% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 6.27 = 1.73 Score Difference (Before): -19 (-12.73) Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 41, MICH 30 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.6% Win Probability (After): 18.5% Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 22 (30) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 14:13 | |
(2nd & 1 at TCU 18) Roman Wilson 18 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthy Pass to Ronnie Bell for Two-Point Conversion) - TCU 41, MICH 38 | 3.39 | 33.5% | 12.9% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 99 Started Drive at: TCU 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 4.61 = 3.39 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.39) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 41, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 33.5% Win Probability (After): 46.5% Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 30 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 13:07 | |
(3rd & 7 at TCU 24) Quentin Johnston 76 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 48, MICH 38 | 7.18 | 53.6% | 23.2% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 99 Started Drive at: TCU 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -0.18 = 7.18 Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.82) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 48, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 79 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.6% Win Probability (After): 76.9% Away Score: 41 (48) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 10:02 | |
(4th & 9 at MICH 16) Griffin Kell 33 Yd Field Goal - TCU 51, MICH 38 | 0.36 | 90.0% | 3.0% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 15 Started Drive at: MICH 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.64 = 0.36 Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.64) Score Difference (End): 13 (13.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 90.0% Win Probability (After): 93.0% Away Score: 48 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 3:18 | |
(2nd & Goal at TCU 5) Roman Wilson 5 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick) - TCU 51, MICH 45 | 1.59 | 9.1% | 16.8% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99 Started Drive at: MICH 44 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.41 = 1.59 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-7.59) Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.1% Win Probability (After): 26.0% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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All Plays [show/hide]
| Time | Offense | Play Description | EPA | WP% | WPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at MICH 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 0, MICH 0 | 0.00 | 71.0% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.86 - 0.86 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.86) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 0, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 71.0% Win Probability (After): 71.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 14:52 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 25) Donovan Edwards run for 54 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST down - TCU 0, MICH 0 | 3.36 | 71.9% | 5.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 21 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.49 - 1.14 = 3.36 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.14) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.49) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 0, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 54 yards Win Probability (Before): 71.9% Win Probability (After): 77.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 14:14 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 21) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston Loveland - TCU 0, MICH 0 | -0.50 | 77.7% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 21 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.16 - 4.65 = -0.50 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.65) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.16) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 0, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 54 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.7% Win Probability (After): 76.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 14:00 | |
(2nd & 10 at TCU 21) Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the TCU 18 - TCU 0, MICH 0 | -0.66 | 76.9% | -0.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 21 -> 18 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.43 - 4.09 = -0.66 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.09) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 0, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 57 yards Win Probability (Before): 76.9% Win Probability (After): 76.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 13:22 | |
(3rd & 7 at TCU 18) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 9 yds to the TCU 9 for a 1ST down - TCU 0, MICH 0 | 1.73 | 76.9% | 1.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 9 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.23 - 3.49 = 1.73 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.49) Score Difference (End): 0 (5.23) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 0, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 66 yards Win Probability (Before): 76.9% Win Probability (After): 78.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 12:50 | |
(1st & Goal at TCU 9) Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the TCU 6 - TCU 0, MICH 0 | -0.31 | 79.3% | 0.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 9 -> 6 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.94 - 5.24 = -0.31 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.24) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.94) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 0, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 69 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.3% Win Probability (After): 80.1% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 12:24 | |
(2nd & Goal at TCU 6) MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 11 - TCU 0, MICH 0 | -0.81 | 78.0% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 11 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.22 - 5.03 = -0.81 Score Difference (Before): 0 (5.03) Score Difference (End): 0 (4.22) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 0, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 69 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.0% Win Probability (After): 77.3% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 11:35 | |
(2nd & Goal at TCU 11) Kalel Mullings run for 4 yds to the TCU 7 - TCU 0, MICH 0 | -0.27 | 75.6% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 7 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.92 - 4.20 = -0.27 Score Difference (Before): 0 (4.20) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 0, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 73 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.6% Win Probability (After): 75.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 11:08 | |
(3rd & Goal at TCU 7) J.J. McCarthy run for 5 yds to the TCU 2 - TCU 0, MICH 0 | -0.33 | 75.0% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 7 -> 2 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 3.95 = -0.33 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.95) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.61) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 0, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 78 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.0% Win Probability (After): 75.0% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 10:39 | |
(4th & Goal at TCU 2) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 10:39 - TCU 0, MICH 0 | 0.00 | 73.9% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 2 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.61 - 3.61 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.61) Score Difference (End): 0 (3.61) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 0, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 78 yards Win Probability (Before): 73.9% Win Probability (After): 73.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 10:30 | |
(4th & Goal at TCU 2) Colston Loveland sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 8 yards to the TCU 10 - TCU 0, MICH 0 | -3.84 | 75.4% | -4.7% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 90 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.20 - 3.64 = -3.84 Score Difference (Before): 0 (3.64) Score Difference (End): 0 (0.20) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 0, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 70 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.4% Win Probability (After): 70.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 10:25 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 10) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion Williams - TCU 0, MICH 0 | -0.83 | 29.3% | -1.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 90 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.64 - 0.19 = -0.83 Score Difference (Before): 0 (0.19) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.64) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 0, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.3% Win Probability (After): 28.2% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 10:10 | |
(2nd & 10 at TCU 10) Kendre Miller run for 8 yds to the TCU 18 - TCU 0, MICH 0 | 0.58 | 30.0% | -2.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 82 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.09 - -0.67 = 0.58 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.67) Score Difference (End): 0 (-0.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 0, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 30.0% Win Probability (After): 27.7% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 9:43 | |
(3rd & 2 at TCU 18) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin Johnston - TCU 0, MICH 0 | -1.77 | 29.8% | -2.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 82 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.82 - -0.05 = -1.77 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-0.05) Score Difference (End): 0 (-1.82) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 0, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.8% Win Probability (After): 26.9% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 9:31 | |
(4th & 2 at TCU 18) Jordy Sandy punt for 48 yds, downed at the Mich 34 - TCU 0, MICH 0 | -0.12 | 27.6% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 66 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.03 - -1.91 = -0.12 Score Difference (Before): 0 (-1.91) Score Difference (End): 0 (2.03) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 0, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.6% Win Probability (After): 27.5% Away Score: 0 (0) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 9:22 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 34) Bud Clark 41 Yd Interception Return (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 7, MICH 0 | -8.94 | 71.9% | -19.9% |
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Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 99 Started Drive at: MICH 34 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -7.00 - 1.94 = -8.94 Score Difference (Before): 0 (1.94) Score Difference (End): 7 (7.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 7, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 71.9% Win Probability (After): 52.0% Away Score: 0 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 9:22 | |
(Kickoff at MICH 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 7, MICH 0 | 0.00 | 50.5% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.01 - 0.01 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.99) Score Difference (End): -7 (-6.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 7, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.5% Win Probability (After): 50.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 9:10 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 25) Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Mich 27 - TCU 7, MICH 0 | -0.42 | 51.7% | -1.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 73 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.42 - 0.01 = -0.42 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-6.99) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.42) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 7, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.7% Win Probability (After): 50.0% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 8:30 | |
(2nd & 8 at MICH 27) Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the Mich 31 - TCU 7, MICH 0 | 0.14 | 50.6% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 69 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.37 - -0.52 = 0.14 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.52) Score Difference (End): -7 (-7.37) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 7, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 50.6% Win Probability (After): 50.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:58 | |
(3rd & 4 at MICH 31) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cornelius Johnson - TCU 7, MICH 0 | -1.53 | 51.4% | -3.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.01 - -0.48 = -1.53 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-7.48) Score Difference (End): -7 (-9.01) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 7, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.4% Win Probability (After): 47.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 7:46 | |
(4th & 4 at MICH 31) Brad Robbins punt for 45 yds, downed at the TCU 24 - TCU 7, MICH 0 | -0.07 | 48.9% | 0.3% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 76 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.05 - -1.99 = -0.07 Score Difference (Before): -7 (-8.99) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.05) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 7, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 48.9% Win Probability (After): 49.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q1 7:35 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 24) Kendre Miller run for 14 yds to the TCU 38 for a 1ST down - TCU 7, MICH 0 | 0.89 | 51.5% | 2.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 62 Started Drive at: TCU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.94 - 2.05 = 0.89 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.05) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.94) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 7, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 51.5% Win Probability (After): 53.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 7:05 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 38) Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 41 - TCU 7, MICH 0 | -0.45 | 54.8% | -1.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 59 Started Drive at: TCU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 3.04 = -0.45 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.04) Score Difference (End): 7 (9.59) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 7, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 54.8% Win Probability (After): 53.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 6:39 | |
(2nd & 7 at TCU 41) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Kendre Miller - TCU 7, MICH 0 | -0.88 | 56.9% | -4.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 59 Started Drive at: TCU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.73 - 2.61 = -0.88 Score Difference (Before): 7 (9.61) Score Difference (End): 7 (8.73) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 7, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.9% Win Probability (After): 52.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 6:15 | |
(3rd & 7 at TCU 41) Max Duggan run for 12 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST down - TCU 7, MICH 0 | 2.11 | 55.7% | 3.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 47 Started Drive at: TCU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.73 - 1.62 = 2.11 Score Difference (Before): 7 (8.62) Score Difference (End): 7 (10.73) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 7, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 29 yards Win Probability (Before): 55.7% Win Probability (After): 59.1% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 6:01 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 47) Max Duggan pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 21 yds to the Mich 26 for a 1ST down - TCU 7, MICH 0 | 0.99 | 59.4% | 1.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 47 -> 26 Started Drive at: TCU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.74 - 3.74 = 0.99 Score Difference (Before): 7 (10.74) Score Difference (End): 7 (11.74) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 7, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.4% Win Probability (After): 60.6% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 5:35 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 26) Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 4 yds to the Mich 22 - TCU 7, MICH 0 | -0.05 | 60.1% | 0.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 22 Started Drive at: TCU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.70 - 4.75 = -0.05 Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.75) Score Difference (End): 7 (11.70) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 7, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 54 yards Win Probability (Before): 60.1% Win Probability (After): 60.9% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 5:00 | |
(2nd & 6 at MICH 22) Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the Mich 18 - TCU 7, MICH 0 | -0.09 | 59.9% | 0.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 22 -> 18 Started Drive at: TCU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.61 - 4.70 = -0.09 Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.70) Score Difference (End): 7 (11.61) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 7, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 58 yards Win Probability (Before): 59.9% Win Probability (After): 60.5% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 4:45 | |
(3rd & 2 at MICH 18) Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 7 yds to the Mich 11 for a 1ST down - TCU 7, MICH 0 | 0.84 | 58.5% | 3.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 11 Started Drive at: TCU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.45 - 4.61 = 0.84 Score Difference (Before): 7 (11.61) Score Difference (End): 7 (12.45) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 7, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.5% Win Probability (After): 61.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 4:15 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 11) Max Duggan pass complete to Taye Barber for 6 yds to the Mich 5 - TCU 7, MICH 0 | 0.27 | 56.9% | 3.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 11 -> 5 Started Drive at: TCU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.73 - 5.47 = 0.27 Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.47) Score Difference (End): 7 (12.73) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 7, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 71 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.9% Win Probability (After): 60.2% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 3:35 | |
(2nd & 4 at MICH 5) Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the Mich 2 - TCU 7, MICH 0 | 0.18 | 57.2% | -0.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 2 Started Drive at: TCU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.92 - 5.74 = 0.18 Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.74) Score Difference (End): 7 (12.92) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 7, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 57.2% Win Probability (After): 56.4% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 3:00 | |
(3rd & 1 at MICH 2) Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the Mich 1 for a 1ST down - TCU 7, MICH 0 | 0.69 | 58.5% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 2 -> 1 Started Drive at: TCU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.61 - 5.92 = 0.69 Score Difference (Before): 7 (12.92) Score Difference (End): 7 (13.61) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 7, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 11 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.5% Win Probability (After): 57.8% Away Score: 7 (7) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 2:27 | |
(1st & Goal at MICH 1) Max Duggan 1 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 14, MICH 0 | 0.39 | 64.6% | 3.3% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: TCU 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.61 = 0.39 Score Difference (Before): 7 (13.61) Score Difference (End): 14 (14.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 12 plays, 76 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.6% Win Probability (After): 67.9% Away Score: 7 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q1 2:27 | |
(Kickoff at MICH 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 14, MICH 0 | 0.00 | 33.3% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.51 - -0.51 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.51) Score Difference (End): -14 (-14.51) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 33.3% Win Probability (After): 33.3% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 2:00 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 25) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to A.J. Henning for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 20 - TCU 14, MICH 0 | -1.38 | 32.1% | -2.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 80 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.83 - -0.45 = -1.38 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-14.45) Score Difference (End): -14 (-15.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 1 play, -5 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.1% Win Probability (After): 29.9% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 1:35 | |
(2nd & 15 at MICH 20) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 32 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, MICH 0 | 3.59 | 27.9% | 7.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 48 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.85 - -1.74 = 3.59 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-15.74) Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.15) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.9% Win Probability (After): 35.6% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 1:15 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 48) Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the TCU 45 - TCU 14, MICH 0 | -0.43 | 33.2% | 1.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 48 -> 45 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.46 - 1.89 = -0.43 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.11) Score Difference (End): -14 (-12.54) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 30 yards Win Probability (Before): 33.2% Win Probability (After): 34.2% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 0:47 | |
(2nd & 7 at TCU 45) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 16 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, MICH 0 | 1.96 | 27.6% | 7.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 29 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.44 - 1.48 = 1.96 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-12.52) Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.56) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 46 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.6% Win Probability (After): 35.4% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q1 0:15 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 29) Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the TCU 24 - TCU 14, MICH 0 | 0.09 | 29.4% | 1.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 24 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.52 - 3.43 = 0.09 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.57) Score Difference (End): -14 (-10.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 29.4% Win Probability (After): 30.6% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 14:50 | |
(2nd & 5 at TCU 24) Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the TCU 23 - TCU 14, MICH 0 | -0.58 | 33.9% | -2.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 23 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.91 - 3.49 = -0.58 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-10.51) Score Difference (End): -14 (-11.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 52 yards Win Probability (Before): 33.9% Win Probability (After): 31.8% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 14:20 | |
(3rd & 4 at TCU 23) Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 24 - TCU 14, MICH 0 | -1.92 | 34.1% | -4.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 23 -> 24 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.98 - 2.91 = -1.92 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-11.09) Score Difference (End): -14 (-13.02) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 0 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 34.1% Win Probability (After): 29.3% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (0) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 13:46 | |
(4th & 5 at TCU 25) Jake Moody 42 Yd Field Goal - TCU 14, MICH 3 | 2.28 | 30.5% | 8.5% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 25 -> 24 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.72 = 2.28 Score Difference (Before): -14 (-13.28) Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 51 yards Win Probability (Before): 30.5% Win Probability (After): 39.1% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 0 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 13:46 | |
(Kickoff at TCU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 61 yds , Derius Davis return for 23 yds to the TCU 27 - TCU 14, MICH 3 | -0.91 | 68.0% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 73 Started Drive at: TCU 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.02 - 1.93 = -0.91 Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.93) Score Difference (End): 11 (12.02) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 68.0% Win Probability (After): 68.0% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 13:35 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 27) Max Duggan pass intercepted Rod Moore return for no gain to the Mich 49 - TCU 14, MICH 3 | -4.20 | 68.2% | -7.4% |
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Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 51 Started Drive at: TCU 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.98 - 2.22 = -4.20 Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.22) Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.02) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 68.2% Win Probability (After): 60.7% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 13:28 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 49) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 50 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, MICH 3 | 4.40 | 39.7% | 7.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 1 Started Drive at: MICH 49 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.38 - 1.98 = 4.40 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.02) Score Difference (End): -11 (-4.62) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 1 play, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 39.7% Win Probability (After): 47.6% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 13:08 | |
(1st & Goal at TCU 1) Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the TCU 1 Kalel Mullings fumbled, recovered by TCU Bud Clark - TCU 14, MICH 3 | -7.11 | 47.0% | -14.4% |
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Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: MICH 49 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.73 - 6.38 = -7.11 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-4.62) Score Difference (End): 11 (11.73) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 50 yards Win Probability (Before): 47.0% Win Probability (After): 32.6% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 12:40 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 20) Kendre Miller run for 13 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, MICH 3 | 0.58 | 70.4% | 1.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 67 Started Drive at: TCU 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.70 - 2.12 = 0.58 Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.12) Score Difference (End): 11 (13.70) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 1 play, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 70.4% Win Probability (After): 71.6% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 12:25 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 33) Kendre Miller run for 6 yds to the TCU 39 - TCU 14, MICH 3 | 0.23 | 70.0% | 2.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 61 Started Drive at: TCU 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.96 - 2.73 = 0.23 Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.73) Score Difference (End): 11 (13.96) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 70.0% Win Probability (After): 72.5% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 11:49 | |
(2nd & 4 at TCU 39) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Derius Davis - TCU 14, MICH 3 | -0.77 | 71.2% | -1.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61 Started Drive at: TCU 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.17 - 2.94 = -0.77 Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.94) Score Difference (End): 11 (13.17) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 71.2% Win Probability (After): 69.6% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 11:45 | |
(3rd & 4 at TCU 39) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion Williams - TCU 14, MICH 3 | -1.72 | 69.9% | -2.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 61 Started Drive at: TCU 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.46 - 2.19 = -1.72 Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.19) Score Difference (End): 11 (11.46) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 69.9% Win Probability (After): 67.7% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 11:35 | |
(4th & 4 at TCU 39) Jordy Sandy punt for 51 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 16 yds to the Mich 26 - TCU 14, MICH 3 | -0.93 | 67.7% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 74 Started Drive at: TCU 1 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.47 - 0.46 = -0.93 Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.46) Score Difference (End): -11 (-10.53) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.7% Win Probability (After): 67.2% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 11:25 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 26) Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the Mich 29 - TCU 14, MICH 3 | -0.61 | 32.9% | -1.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 71 Started Drive at: MICH 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.06 - 0.55 = -0.61 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.45) Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.06) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.9% Win Probability (After): 31.3% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:40 | |
(2nd & 7 at MICH 29) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 8 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, MICH 3 | 1.22 | 32.6% | 1.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 63 Started Drive at: MICH 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.31 - 0.10 = 1.22 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.90) Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.69) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.6% Win Probability (After): 34.2% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 10:15 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 37) Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the Mich 45 - TCU 14, MICH 3 | 0.59 | 32.1% | 4.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 55 Started Drive at: MICH 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.16 - 1.57 = 0.59 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-9.43) Score Difference (End): -11 (-8.84) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 32.1% Win Probability (After): 37.0% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 9:50 | |
(2nd & 2 at MICH 45) Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 43 - TCU 14, MICH 3 | -1.00 | 35.4% | -4.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 57 Started Drive at: MICH 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.17 - 2.17 = -1.00 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-8.83) Score Difference (End): -11 (-9.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 35.4% Win Probability (After): 31.1% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 9:26 | |
(3rd & 4 at MICH 43) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie Bell - TCU 14, MICH 3 | -1.42 | 34.2% | -4.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 57 Started Drive at: MICH 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.46 - 0.97 = -1.42 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-10.03) Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.46) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 34.2% Win Probability (After): 30.2% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 9:20 | |
(4th & 4 at MICH 43) Brad Robbins punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 17 - TCU 14, MICH 3 | -1.00 | 31.3% | -1.4% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 57 -> 83 Started Drive at: MICH 26 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.63 - -0.63 = -1.00 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-11.63) Score Difference (End): 11 (12.63) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.3% Win Probability (After): 29.9% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 9:05 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 17) Kendre Miller run for 3 yds to the TCU 20 - TCU 14, MICH 3 | -0.39 | 69.2% | -1.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 83 -> 80 Started Drive at: TCU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.13 - 1.52 = -0.39 Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.52) Score Difference (End): 11 (12.13) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 69.2% Win Probability (After): 68.1% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 8:25 | |
(2nd & 7 at TCU 20) Max Duggan pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 13 yds to the TCU 33 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, MICH 3 | 1.42 | 67.8% | 2.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 80 -> 67 Started Drive at: TCU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 0.83 = 1.42 Score Difference (Before): 11 (11.83) Score Difference (End): 11 (13.24) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 16 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.8% Win Probability (After): 70.2% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 8:05 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 33) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Taye Barber - TCU 14, MICH 3 | -0.79 | 69.8% | -1.0% |
|
Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67 Started Drive at: TCU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.36 - 2.14 = -0.79 Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.14) Score Difference (End): 11 (12.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 16 yards Win Probability (Before): 69.8% Win Probability (After): 68.8% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 7:50 | |
(2nd & 10 at TCU 33) Max Duggan run for 8 yds to the TCU 41 - TCU 14, MICH 3 | 0.33 | 70.2% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 59 Started Drive at: TCU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.81 - 1.49 = 0.33 Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.49) Score Difference (End): 11 (12.81) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 24 yards Win Probability (Before): 70.2% Win Probability (After): 70.1% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 7:10 | |
(3rd & 2 at TCU 41) Max Duggan run for 8 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, MICH 3 | 1.09 | 72.7% | 0.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 51 Started Drive at: TCU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.99 - 1.89 = 1.09 Score Difference (Before): 11 (12.89) Score Difference (End): 11 (13.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 32 yards Win Probability (Before): 72.7% Win Probability (After): 72.9% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 6:25 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 49) Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 32 yds to the Mich 19 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, MICH 3 | 1.80 | 75.7% | 0.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 51 -> 19 Started Drive at: TCU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.83 - 3.03 = 1.80 Score Difference (Before): 11 (14.03) Score Difference (End): 11 (15.83) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 64 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.7% Win Probability (After): 76.5% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 6:10 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 19) Max Duggan run for 4 yds to the Mich 15 - TCU 14, MICH 3 | 0.02 | 77.3% | 0.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 19 -> 15 Started Drive at: TCU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.76 - 4.74 = 0.02 Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.74) Score Difference (End): 11 (15.76) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 68 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.3% Win Probability (After): 77.9% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 5:35 | |
(2nd & 6 at MICH 15) Kendre Miller run for 9 yds to the Mich 6 for a 1ST down - TCU 14, MICH 3 | 1.11 | 76.6% | 1.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 6 Started Drive at: TCU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.75 - 4.64 = 1.11 Score Difference (Before): 11 (15.64) Score Difference (End): 11 (16.75) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 77 yards Win Probability (Before): 76.6% Win Probability (After): 78.3% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 5:03 | |
(1st & Goal at MICH 6) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Savion Williams - TCU 14, MICH 3 | -0.61 | 78.9% | -2.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 6 Started Drive at: TCU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.08 - 5.70 = -0.61 Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.70) Score Difference (End): 11 (16.08) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 14, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 77 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.9% Win Probability (After): 76.9% Away Score: 14 (14) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 4:56 | |
(2nd & Goal at MICH 6) Taye Barber 6 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 21, MICH 3 | 1.92 | 78.8% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 99 Started Drive at: TCU 17 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.08 = 1.92 Score Difference (Before): 11 (16.08) Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 10 plays, 83 yards Win Probability (Before): 78.8% Win Probability (After): 78.0% Away Score: 14 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 4:56 | |
(Kickoff at MICH 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 21, MICH 3 | 0.00 | 23.5% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - 0.44 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.56) Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.56) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.5% Win Probability (After): 23.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 4:40 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 25) Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the Mich 25 - TCU 21, MICH 3 | -0.57 | 21.8% | -1.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.11 - 0.45 = -0.57 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.55) Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.11) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.8% Win Probability (After): 20.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 4:10 | |
(2nd & 10 at MICH 25) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 14 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 3 | 1.69 | 18.8% | 4.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 61 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.47 - -0.22 = 1.69 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.22) Score Difference (End): -18 (-16.53) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.8% Win Probability (After): 23.4% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 3:43 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 39) Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds to the Mich 46 - TCU 21, MICH 3 | 0.11 | 22.8% | 1.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 54 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.60 - 1.48 = 0.11 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-16.52) Score Difference (End): -18 (-16.40) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.8% Win Probability (After): 24.7% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 3:09 | |
(2nd & 3 at MICH 46) TCU Penalty, Roughing Passer (Johnny Hodges) to the TCU 39 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 3 | 1.33 | 23.6% | 3.1% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 54 -> 39 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.91 - 1.58 = 1.33 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-16.42) Score Difference (End): -18 (-15.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.6% Win Probability (After): 26.7% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 2:55 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 39) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to A.J. Henning for 2 yds to the TCU 37 - TCU 21, MICH 3 | -0.33 | 26.2% | -0.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 39 -> 37 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.29 - 2.62 = -0.33 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-15.38) Score Difference (End): -18 (-15.71) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.2% Win Probability (After): 26.2% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 2:37 | |
(2nd & 8 at TCU 37) MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 42 - TCU 21, MICH 3 | -0.78 | 26.2% | -2.6% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 37 -> 42 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.48 - 2.26 = -0.78 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-15.74) Score Difference (End): -18 (-16.52) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 23 yards Win Probability (Before): 26.2% Win Probability (After): 23.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 2:10 | |
(2nd & 13 at TCU 42) J.J. McCarthy sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 49 - TCU 21, MICH 3 | -0.79 | 21.4% | -2.4% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 49 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.51 - 1.31 = -0.79 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-16.69) Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.49) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 16 yards Win Probability (Before): 21.4% Win Probability (After): 19.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:38 | |
(3rd & 20 at TCU 49) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston Loveland - TCU 21, MICH 3 | -0.56 | 18.3% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 49 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.49 = -0.56 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.51) Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.07) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 16 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.3% Win Probability (After): 17.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 1:33 | |
(4th & 20 at TCU 49) Brad Robbins punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Derius Davis at the TCU 15 - TCU 21, MICH 3 | -0.54 | 15.6% | 4.2% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 85 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.69 - -0.14 = -0.54 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.14) Score Difference (End): 18 (18.69) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 16 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.6% Win Probability (After): 19.8% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 1:26 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 15) Emari Demercado run for 16 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 3 | 0.61 | 81.7% | 0.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 85 -> 69 Started Drive at: TCU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.12 - 0.51 = 0.61 Score Difference (Before): 18 (18.51) Score Difference (End): 18 (19.12) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 1 play, 16 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.7% Win Probability (After): 82.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 1:10 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 31) Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the TCU 38 - TCU 21, MICH 3 | 0.02 | 82.7% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 62 Started Drive at: TCU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.11 - 1.09 = 0.02 Score Difference (Before): 18 (19.09) Score Difference (End): 18 (19.11) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 23 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.7% Win Probability (After): 82.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:57 | |
(2nd & 3 at TCU 38) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin Johnston - TCU 21, MICH 3 | -0.17 | 85.8% | -3.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 62 Started Drive at: TCU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.78 - 0.95 = -0.17 Score Difference (Before): 18 (18.95) Score Difference (End): 18 (18.78) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 23 yards Win Probability (Before): 85.8% Win Probability (After): 82.4% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:53 | |
(3rd & 3 at TCU 38) Max Duggan sacked by Makari Paige for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 31 - TCU 21, MICH 3 | -0.75 | 84.9% | -3.0% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 62 -> 69 Started Drive at: TCU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - 0.68 = -0.75 Score Difference (Before): 18 (18.68) Score Difference (End): 18 (17.93) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards Win Probability (Before): 84.9% Win Probability (After): 81.9% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:53 | |
(4th & 10 at TCU 31) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 00:53 - TCU 21, MICH 3 | 0.00 | 82.0% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69 Started Drive at: TCU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.07 - -0.07 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 18 (17.93) Score Difference (End): 18 (17.93) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.0% Win Probability (After): 82.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 1 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 0:47 | |
(4th & 10 at TCU 31) Jordy Sandy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the Mich 33 - TCU 21, MICH 3 | -0.44 | 82.7% | 0.6% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 67 Started Drive at: TCU 15 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.58 - -0.14 = -0.44 Score Difference (Before): 18 (17.86) Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.42) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 16 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.7% Win Probability (After): 83.3% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q2 0:42 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 33) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Ronnie Bell - TCU 21, MICH 3 | -0.05 | 16.0% | -0.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 67 Started Drive at: MICH 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.40 = -0.05 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.60) Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.65) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 16.0% Win Probability (After): 15.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:35 | |
(2nd & 10 at MICH 33) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 15 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 3 | 0.64 | 15.4% | 4.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 52 Started Drive at: MICH 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - 0.35 = 0.64 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.65) Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.01) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.4% Win Probability (After): 19.9% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:22 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 48) J.J. McCarthy sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 11 yards to the Mich 37 J.J. McCarthy fumbled, forced by Dylan Horton, recovered by Mich - TCU 21, MICH 3 | -0.34 | 19.1% | -3.5% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 52 -> 63 Started Drive at: MICH 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.30 - 0.63 = -0.34 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.37) Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.70) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.1% Win Probability (After): 15.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:15 | |
(2nd & 21 at MICH 37) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 7 yds to the Mich 44 - TCU 21, MICH 3 | 0.14 | 15.3% | 0.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 63 -> 56 Started Drive at: MICH 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.27 - 0.13 = 0.14 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.87) Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.73) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.3% Win Probability (After): 15.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 1 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:15 | |
(3rd & 14 at MICH 44) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 00:15 - TCU 21, MICH 3 | 0.00 | 15.5% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 56 Started Drive at: MICH 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.27 - 0.27 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.73) Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.73) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.5% Win Probability (After): 15.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:05 | |
(3rd & 14 at MICH 44) TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson) to the TCU 41 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 3 | 0.71 | 15.1% | 6.1% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 41 Started Drive at: MICH 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.89 - 0.18 = 0.71 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.82) Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.11) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 15.1% Win Probability (After): 21.2% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q2 0:05 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 41) Timeout TCU, clock 00:05 - TCU 21, MICH 3 | 0.00 | 20.7% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 41 Started Drive at: MICH 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.89 - 0.89 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.11) Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.11) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 3 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 20.7% Win Probability (After): 20.7% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (3) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q2 0:00 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 42) Jake Moody 59 Yd Field Goal - TCU 21, MICH 6 | 2.50 | 20.6% | 3.4% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 41 Started Drive at: MICH 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 0.50 = 2.50 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.50) Score Difference (End): -15 (-15.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 6 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 20.6% Win Probability (After): 24.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 3 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 15:00 | |
(Kickoff at TCU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 21, MICH 6 | 0.00 | 82.0% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.46 - 2.46 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 15 (17.46) Score Difference (End): 15 (17.46) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 6 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.0% Win Probability (After): 82.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:51 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 25) Max Duggan run for 14 yds to the TCU 39 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 6 | 0.59 | 83.2% | 0.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 61 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.20 - 2.61 = 0.59 Score Difference (Before): 15 (17.61) Score Difference (End): 15 (18.20) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 6 Drive Summary: 1 play, 14 yards Win Probability (Before): 83.2% Win Probability (After): 83.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 14:15 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 39) Kendre Miller run for 1 yd to the TCU 40 - TCU 21, MICH 6 | 0.05 | 84.2% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 61 -> 60 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.29 - 3.24 = 0.05 Score Difference (Before): 15 (18.24) Score Difference (End): 15 (18.29) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 6 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 84.2% Win Probability (After): 83.8% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 13:54 | |
(2nd & 9 at TCU 40) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Kendre Miller - TCU 21, MICH 6 | -1.04 | 84.4% | -2.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.78 - 2.81 = -1.04 Score Difference (Before): 15 (17.81) Score Difference (End): 15 (16.78) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 6 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 84.4% Win Probability (After): 81.7% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 13:50 | |
(3rd & 9 at TCU 40) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jordan Hudson - TCU 21, MICH 6 | -1.35 | 82.5% | -1.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 60 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.49 - 1.84 = -1.35 Score Difference (Before): 15 (16.84) Score Difference (End): 15 (15.49) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 6 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.5% Win Probability (After): 80.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 13:38 | |
(4th & 9 at TCU 40) Jordy Sandy punt for 42 yds TCU Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Namdi Obiazor) to the Mich 33 - TCU 21, MICH 6 | -0.88 | 80.6% | -5.2% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 60 -> 67 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.39 - 0.48 = -0.88 Score Difference (Before): 15 (15.49) Score Difference (End): -15 (-14.61) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 21, MICH 6 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 80.6% Win Probability (After): 75.4% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 13:30 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 33) Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 31 - TCU 21, MICH 6 | -1.43 | 23.2% | -3.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 67 -> 69 Started Drive at: MICH 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.11 - 0.32 = -1.43 Score Difference (Before): -15 (-14.68) Score Difference (End): -15 (-16.11) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 6 Drive Summary: 1 play, -2 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.2% Win Probability (After): 20.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:45 | |
(2nd & 12 at MICH 31) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 20 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 6 | 2.99 | 18.5% | 7.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 49 Started Drive at: MICH 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.86 - -1.13 = 2.99 Score Difference (Before): -15 (-16.13) Score Difference (End): -15 (-13.14) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 6 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 18 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.5% Win Probability (After): 26.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 12:10 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 49) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 43 yds to the TCU 6 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 6 | 3.53 | 24.2% | 5.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 49 -> 6 Started Drive at: MICH 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.37 - 1.83 = 3.53 Score Difference (Before): -15 (-13.17) Score Difference (End): -15 (-9.63) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 6 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 61 yards Win Probability (Before): 24.2% Win Probability (After): 29.3% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 11:25 | |
(1st & Goal at TCU 6) Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the TCU 3 - TCU 21, MICH 6 | 0.13 | 27.3% | 1.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 3 Started Drive at: MICH 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.55 - 5.42 = 0.13 Score Difference (Before): -15 (-9.58) Score Difference (End): -15 (-9.45) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 6 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 64 yards Win Probability (Before): 27.3% Win Probability (After): 28.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 10:45 | |
(2nd & Goal at TCU 3) Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the TCU 3 - TCU 21, MICH 6 | -1.01 | 24.9% | 1.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 3 Started Drive at: MICH 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.57 - 5.58 = -1.01 Score Difference (Before): -15 (-9.42) Score Difference (End): -15 (-10.43) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 6 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 64 yards Win Probability (Before): 24.9% Win Probability (After): 26.3% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 9:45 | |
(3rd & Goal at TCU 3) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 4 - TCU 21, MICH 6 | -2.11 | 25.4% | -3.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 3 -> 4 Started Drive at: MICH 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.59 - 4.70 = -2.11 Score Difference (Before): -15 (-10.30) Score Difference (End): -15 (-12.41) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 6 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 63 yards Win Probability (Before): 25.4% Win Probability (After): 22.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (6) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 9:29 | |
(4th & Goal at TCU 4) Jake Moody 21 Yd Field Goal - TCU 21, MICH 9 | 0.41 | 23.3% | 8.5% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 4 Started Drive at: MICH 33 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.59 = 0.41 Score Difference (Before): -15 (-12.41) Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 9 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 63 yards Win Probability (Before): 23.3% Win Probability (After): 31.8% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 6 (9) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q3 9:29 | |
(Kickoff at TCU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 21, MICH 9 | 0.00 | 75.3% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.08 - 2.08 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.08) Score Difference (End): 12 (14.08) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 9 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.3% Win Probability (After): 75.3% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (9) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 9:15 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 25) Max Duggan pass complete to Jared Wiley for 6 yds to the TCU 31 - TCU 21, MICH 9 | 0.29 | 75.2% | 0.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 69 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.36 - 2.07 = 0.29 Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.07) Score Difference (End): 12 (14.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 9 Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 75.2% Win Probability (After): 75.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (9) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 8:45 | |
(2nd & 4 at TCU 31) Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 34 - TCU 21, MICH 9 | 0.00 | 77.9% | -3.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 66 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.24 - 2.23 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.23) Score Difference (End): 12 (14.24) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 9 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.9% Win Probability (After): 74.9% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (9) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 8:35 | |
(3rd & 1 at TCU 34) Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 36 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 9 | 0.56 | 77.5% | 1.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 66 -> 64 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.71 - 2.14 = 0.56 Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.14) Score Difference (End): 12 (14.71) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 9 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 77.5% Win Probability (After): 78.7% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (9) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 8:01 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 36) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Quentin Johnston - TCU 21, MICH 9 | -0.50 | 82.3% | -4.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.19 - 2.68 = -0.50 Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.68) Score Difference (End): 12 (14.19) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 9 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 82.3% Win Probability (After): 78.3% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (9) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 7:56 | |
(2nd & 10 at TCU 36) Max Duggan pass incomplete - TCU 21, MICH 9 | -0.93 | 81.9% | -2.5% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 2.13 = -0.93 Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.13) Score Difference (End): 12 (13.20) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 9 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 81.9% Win Probability (After): 79.4% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (9) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 7:56 | |
(3rd & 10 at TCU 36) Timeout TCU, clock 07:56 - TCU 21, MICH 9 | 0.00 | 79.4% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 64 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.20 - 1.20 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 12 (13.20) Score Difference (End): 12 (13.20) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 9 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 79.4% Win Probability (After): 79.4% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (9) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 7:44 | |
(3rd & 10 at TCU 36) Max Duggan pass intercepted Mike Sainristil return for 8 yds to the TCU 45 - TCU 21, MICH 9 | -3.61 | 76.2% | -8.1% |
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Play Type: Interception Return Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 64 -> 45 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.43 - 1.17 = -3.61 Score Difference (Before): 12 (13.17) Score Difference (End): -12 (-9.57) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 21, MICH 9 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 19 yards Win Probability (Before): 76.2% Win Probability (After): 68.1% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (9) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 7:30 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 45) Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the TCU 42 - TCU 21, MICH 9 | -0.32 | 31.8% | -1.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 42 Started Drive at: TCU 45 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 2.40 = -0.32 Score Difference (Before): -12 (-9.60) Score Difference (End): -12 (-9.93) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 9 Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.8% Win Probability (After): 30.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (9) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 7:00 | |
(2nd & 7 at TCU 42) Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 9 | 1.10 | 30.6% | 1.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 42 -> 34 Started Drive at: TCU 45 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.21 - 2.11 = 1.10 Score Difference (Before): -12 (-9.89) Score Difference (End): -12 (-8.79) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 9 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 30.6% Win Probability (After): 32.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (9) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 6:32 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 34) Ronnie Bell 34 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick) - TCU 21, MICH 16 | 3.73 | 31.0% | 16.6% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 34 -> 99 Started Drive at: TCU 45 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 3.27 = 3.73 Score Difference (Before): -12 (-8.73) Score Difference (End): -5 (-5.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 45 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.0% Win Probability (After): 47.6% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 9 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 6:32 | |
(Kickoff at TCU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 21, MICH 16 | 0.00 | 58.7% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.34 - 1.34 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.34) Score Difference (End): 5 (6.34) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.7% Win Probability (After): 58.7% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 6:24 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 25) Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 46 yds to the Mich 29 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 16 | 2.80 | 58.7% | 6.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 29 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.13 - 1.33 = 2.80 Score Difference (Before): 5 (6.33) Score Difference (End): 5 (9.13) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 1 play, 46 yards Win Probability (Before): 58.7% Win Probability (After): 65.0% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 6:05 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 29) Emari Demercado run for 15 yds to the Mich 14 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 16 | 0.84 | 64.8% | 2.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 29 -> 14 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.04 - 4.20 = 0.84 Score Difference (Before): 5 (9.20) Score Difference (End): 5 (10.04) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 61 yards Win Probability (Before): 64.8% Win Probability (After): 66.7% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 5:35 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 14) Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the Mich 12 - TCU 21, MICH 16 | -0.50 | 67.0% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 14 -> 12 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.59 - 5.09 = -0.50 Score Difference (Before): 5 (10.09) Score Difference (End): 5 (9.59) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 63 yards Win Probability (Before): 67.0% Win Probability (After): 66.5% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 4:45 | |
(2nd & 8 at MICH 12) Emari Demercado run for 6 yds to the Mich 6 - TCU 21, MICH 16 | 0.49 | 66.5% | 0.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 12 -> 6 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.09 - 4.59 = 0.49 Score Difference (Before): 5 (9.59) Score Difference (End): 5 (10.09) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 69 yards Win Probability (Before): 66.5% Win Probability (After): 66.8% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 4:35 | |
(3rd & 2 at MICH 6) Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST down - TCU 21, MICH 16 | 1.40 | 69.9% | 2.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 6 -> 1 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.50 - 5.10 = 1.40 Score Difference (Before): 5 (10.10) Score Difference (End): 5 (11.50) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 21, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 74 yards Win Probability (Before): 69.9% Win Probability (After): 72.4% Away Score: 21 (21) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 4:25 | |
(1st & Goal at MICH 1) Emari Demercado 1 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 28, MICH 16 | 0.49 | 74.2% | 4.9% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.51 = 0.49 Score Difference (Before): 5 (11.51) Score Difference (End): 12 (12.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 28, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 75 yards Win Probability (Before): 74.2% Win Probability (After): 79.1% Away Score: 21 (28) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 4:25 | |
(Kickoff at MICH 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds , A.J. Henning return for 21 yds to the Mich 21 - TCU 28, MICH 16 | -1.25 | 24.0% | -1.4% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 79 Started Drive at: MICH 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.27 - -0.02 = -1.25 Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.02) Score Difference (End): -12 (-13.27) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 28, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 24.0% Win Probability (After): 22.6% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 4:05 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 21) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 8 yds to the Mich 29 - TCU 28, MICH 16 | 0.68 | 22.7% | 1.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 71 Started Drive at: MICH 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.44 - -0.25 = 0.68 Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.25) Score Difference (End): -12 (-11.56) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 28, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 22.7% Win Probability (After): 24.4% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 3:30 | |
(2nd & 2 at MICH 29) Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 28 - TCU 28, MICH 16 | -1.17 | 24.3% | -1.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 71 -> 72 Started Drive at: MICH 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.75 - 0.42 = -1.17 Score Difference (Before): -12 (-11.58) Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.75) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 28, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 7 yards Win Probability (Before): 24.3% Win Probability (After): 22.4% Away Score: 28 (28) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 2:52 | |
(3rd & 3 at MICH 28) Dee Winters 29 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) - TCU 34, MICH 16 | -7.25 | 19.2% | -13.7% |
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Play Type: Interception Return Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 72 -> 99 Started Drive at: MICH 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -8.00 - -0.75 = -7.25 Score Difference (Before): -12 (-12.75) Score Difference (End): 18 (18.00) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 34, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 36 yards Win Probability (Before): 19.2% Win Probability (After): 5.5% Away Score: 28 (34) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 2:52 | |
(Kickoff at MICH 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds , A.J. Henning return for 31 yds to the Mich 31 - TCU 34, MICH 16 | -0.53 | 5.3% | -0.1% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 69 Started Drive at: MICH 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.03 - -0.50 = -0.53 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.50) Score Difference (End): -18 (-19.03) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 34, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 5.3% Win Probability (After): 5.2% Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 2:40 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 31) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Donovan Edwards - TCU 34, MICH 16 | -0.85 | 6.2% | -1.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 69 Started Drive at: MICH 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.63 - 0.22 = -0.85 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.78) Score Difference (End): -18 (-18.63) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 34, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 6.2% Win Probability (After): 5.2% Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 2:33 | |
(2nd & 10 at MICH 31) TCU Penalty, Defensive Holding (Josh Newton) to the Mich 41 for a 1ST down - TCU 34, MICH 16 | 1.55 | 5.3% | 1.4% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 69 -> 59 Started Drive at: MICH 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.90 - -0.65 = 1.55 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-18.65) Score Difference (End): -18 (-17.10) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 34, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 5.3% Win Probability (After): 6.7% Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 2:24 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 41) J.J. McCarthy run for 39 yds to the TCU 20 for a 1ST down - TCU 34, MICH 16 | 3.29 | 6.8% | 4.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 59 -> 20 Started Drive at: MICH 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.20 - 0.92 = 3.29 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-17.08) Score Difference (End): -18 (-13.80) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 34, MICH 16 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 39 yards Win Probability (Before): 6.8% Win Probability (After): 11.0% Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 16 (16) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 1:47 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 20) J.J. McCarthy 20 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) - TCU 34, MICH 22 | 1.77 | 9.9% | 12.8% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 99 Started Drive at: MICH 31 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.00 - 4.23 = 1.77 Score Difference (Before): -18 (-13.77) Score Difference (End): -12 (-12.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 34, MICH 22 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 59 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.9% Win Probability (After): 22.7% Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 16 (22) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 1:47 | |
(Kickoff at TCU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds , Derius Davis return for 22 yds to the TCU 22 - TCU 34, MICH 22 | -1.12 | 86.1% | -5.7% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 78 Started Drive at: TCU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.95 - 2.06 = -1.12 Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.06) Score Difference (End): 12 (12.95) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 34, MICH 22 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 86.1% Win Probability (After): 80.4% Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 22 (22) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 1:30 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 22) Emari Demercado run for 8 yds to the TCU 30 - TCU 34, MICH 22 | 0.55 | 86.1% | 0.7% |
|
Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 78 -> 70 Started Drive at: TCU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.55 - 2.00 = 0.55 Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.00) Score Difference (End): 12 (14.55) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 34, MICH 22 Drive Summary: 1 play, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 86.1% Win Probability (After): 86.9% Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 22 (22) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:53 | |
(2nd & 2 at TCU 30) Emari Demercado run for 69 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST down - TCU 34, MICH 22 | 4.02 | 89.2% | 2.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 1 Started Drive at: TCU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.59 - 2.57 = 4.02 Score Difference (Before): 12 (14.57) Score Difference (End): 12 (18.59) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 34, MICH 22 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 77 yards Win Probability (Before): 89.2% Win Probability (After): 91.6% Away Score: 34 (34) Home Score: 22 (22) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:49 | |
(1st & Goal at MICH 1) Max Duggan 1 Yd Run (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 41, MICH 22 | 0.41 | 92.9% | 3.6% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: TCU 22 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 6.59 = 0.41 Score Difference (Before): 12 (18.59) Score Difference (End): 19 (19.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 41, MICH 22 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 78 yards Win Probability (Before): 92.9% Win Probability (After): 96.5% Away Score: 34 (41) Home Score: 22 (22) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:49 | |
(Kickoff at MICH 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 41, MICH 22 | 0.00 | 4.0% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.39 - -0.39 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -19 (-19.39) Score Difference (End): -19 (-19.39) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 41, MICH 22 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 4.0% Win Probability (After): 4.0% Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 22 (22) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 0:41 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 25) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 20 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST down - TCU 41, MICH 22 | 1.56 | 4.0% | 0.4% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 55 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 1.18 - -0.38 = 1.56 Score Difference (Before): -19 (-19.38) Score Difference (End): -19 (-17.82) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 41, MICH 22 Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 4.0% Win Probability (After): 4.4% Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 22 (22) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 0:16 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 45) TCU Penalty, Defensive Holding (Millard Bradford) to the TCU 45 for a 1ST down - TCU 41, MICH 22 | 0.90 | 4.1% | 0.5% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 55 -> 45 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.07 - 1.18 = 0.90 Score Difference (Before): -19 (-17.82) Score Difference (End): -19 (-16.93) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 41, MICH 22 Drive Summary: 1 play, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 4.1% Win Probability (After): 4.6% Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 22 (22) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 0:09 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 45) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 44 yds to the TCU 1 for a 1ST down - TCU 41, MICH 22 | 4.28 | 4.2% | 5.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 45 -> 1 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 6.33 - 2.05 = 4.28 Score Difference (Before): -19 (-16.95) Score Difference (End): -19 (-12.67) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 41, MICH 22 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 64 yards Win Probability (Before): 4.2% Win Probability (After): 9.2% Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 22 (22) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 0:03 | |
(1st & Goal at TCU 1) Kalel Mullings 1 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthy Run for Two-Point Conversion) - TCU 41, MICH 30 | 1.73 | 8.6% | 9.9% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 1 -> 99 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 6.27 = 1.73 Score Difference (Before): -19 (-12.73) Score Difference (End): -11 (-11.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 41, MICH 30 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 65 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.6% Win Probability (After): 18.5% Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 22 (30) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q3 0:03 | |
(Kickoff at TCU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 41, MICH 30 | 0.00 | 87.7% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.13 - 2.13 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.13) Score Difference (End): 11 (13.13) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 41, MICH 30 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 87.7% Win Probability (After): 87.7% Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 30 (30) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q3 0:00 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 25) Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 27 Emari Demercado fumbled, forced by Mazi Smith, recovered by Mich Mazi Smith - TCU 41, MICH 30 | -5.91 | 88.0% | -19.6% |
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Play Type: Fumble Recovery (Opponent) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 27 Started Drive at: TCU 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.78 - 2.13 = -5.91 Score Difference (Before): 11 (13.13) Score Difference (End): -11 (-7.22) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 41, MICH 30 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.0% Win Probability (After): 68.4% Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 30 (30) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 14:40 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 27) Donovan Edwards run for 9 yds to the TCU 18 - TCU 41, MICH 30 | 0.90 | 31.7% | 3.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 27 -> 18 Started Drive at: TCU 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.69 - 3.79 = 0.90 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-7.21) Score Difference (End): -11 (-6.31) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 41, MICH 30 Drive Summary: 1 play, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 31.7% Win Probability (After): 34.8% Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 30 (30) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 14:13 | |
(2nd & 1 at TCU 18) Roman Wilson 18 Yd Run (J.J. McCarthy Pass to Ronnie Bell for Two-Point Conversion) - TCU 41, MICH 38 | 3.39 | 33.5% | 12.9% |
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Play Type: Rushing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 18 -> 99 Started Drive at: TCU 27 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 8.00 - 4.61 = 3.39 Score Difference (Before): -11 (-6.39) Score Difference (End): -3 (-3.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 41, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 27 yards Win Probability (Before): 33.5% Win Probability (After): 46.5% Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 30 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 14:13 | |
(Kickoff at TCU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 64 yds , Derius Davis return for 20 yds to the TCU 21 - TCU 41, MICH 38 | -1.17 | 57.1% | -1.6% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 79 Started Drive at: TCU 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.25 - 1.42 = -1.17 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.42) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.25) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 41, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 57.1% Win Probability (After): 55.5% Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:55 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 21) Emari Demercado run for 3 yds to the TCU 24 - TCU 41, MICH 38 | -0.52 | 56.7% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 76 Started Drive at: TCU 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.78 - 1.29 = -0.52 Score Difference (Before): 3 (4.29) Score Difference (End): 3 (3.78) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 41, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.7% Win Probability (After): 56.5% Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:22 | |
(2nd & 7 at TCU 24) Max Duggan pass incomplete to Jordan Hudson - TCU 41, MICH 38 | -1.02 | 56.2% | -2.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 76 Started Drive at: TCU 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.21 - 0.81 = -1.02 Score Difference (Before): 3 (3.81) Score Difference (End): 3 (2.79) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 41, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 56.2% Win Probability (After): 53.3% Away Score: 41 (41) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:07 | |
(3rd & 7 at TCU 24) Quentin Johnston 76 Yd pass from Max Duggan (Griffin Kell Kick) - TCU 48, MICH 38 | 7.18 | 53.6% | 23.2% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 76 -> 99 Started Drive at: TCU 21 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - -0.18 = 7.18 Score Difference (Before): 3 (2.82) Score Difference (End): 10 (10.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 48, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 79 yards Win Probability (Before): 53.6% Win Probability (After): 76.9% Away Score: 41 (48) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 13:07 | |
(Kickoff at MICH 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds , A.J. Henning return for 26 yds to the MICHIGAN 39 MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Block (Leon Franklin) to the Mich 13 - TCU 48, MICH 38 | -1.62 | 20.9% | -3.9% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 87 Started Drive at: MICH 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.44 - 0.18 = -1.62 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-18.01) Score Difference (End): -10 (-11.44) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 48, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 20.9% Win Probability (After): 17.0% Away Score: 48 (48) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 12:45 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 13) J.J. McCarthy run for 6 yds to the Mich 19 - TCU 48, MICH 38 | 0.01 | 18.1% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 81 Started Drive at: MICH 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.33 - -0.34 = 0.01 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.34) Score Difference (End): -10 (-10.33) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 48, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 1 play, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 18.1% Win Probability (After): 17.9% Away Score: 48 (48) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 12:27 | |
(2nd & 4 at MICH 19) J.J. McCarthy sacked by Dylan Horton for a loss of 12 yards to the Mich 7 MICHIGAN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (J.J. McCarthy) to the Mich 7 - TCU 48, MICH 38 | -2.24 | 17.8% | -3.6% |
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Play Type: Sack Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 93 Started Drive at: MICH 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.57 - -0.23 = -2.24 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-10.33) Score Difference (End): -10 (-12.57) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 48, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 2 plays, -6 yards Win Probability (Before): 17.8% Win Probability (After): 14.2% Away Score: 48 (48) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 12:22 | |
(3rd & 16 at MICH 7) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Donovan Edwards - TCU 48, MICH 38 | -0.75 | 13.9% | -2.0% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 93 Started Drive at: MICH 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.28 - -2.53 = -0.75 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-12.53) Score Difference (End): -10 (-13.28) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 48, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -6 yards Win Probability (Before): 13.9% Win Probability (After): 11.9% Away Score: 48 (48) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 12:09 | |
(4th & 16 at MICH 7) Brad Robbins punt for 40 yds , Derius Davis returns for 31 yds to the Mich 16 - TCU 48, MICH 38 | -1.84 | 11.7% | -2.6% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 93 -> 16 Started Drive at: MICH 13 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -5.14 - -3.31 = -1.84 Score Difference (Before): -10 (-13.31) Score Difference (End): 10 (15.14) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 48, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, -6 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.7% Win Probability (After): 9.1% Away Score: 48 (48) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 12:00 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 16) Max Duggan run for 1 yd to the Mich 15 - TCU 48, MICH 38 | -0.56 | 90.7% | -0.3% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 15 Started Drive at: MICH 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.57 - 5.13 = -0.56 Score Difference (Before): 10 (15.13) Score Difference (End): 10 (14.57) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 48, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 1 play, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 90.7% Win Probability (After): 90.4% Away Score: 48 (48) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 11:20 | |
(2nd & 9 at MICH 15) Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 2 yds to the Mich 13 - TCU 48, MICH 38 | -0.65 | 91.0% | -2.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 13 Started Drive at: MICH 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.90 - 4.55 = -0.65 Score Difference (Before): 10 (14.55) Score Difference (End): 10 (13.90) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 48, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.0% Win Probability (After): 88.1% Away Score: 48 (48) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 10:43 | |
(3rd & 7 at MICH 13) Timeout TCU, clock 10:43 - TCU 48, MICH 38 | 0.00 | 90.6% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 13 Started Drive at: MICH 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.90 - 3.90 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.90) Score Difference (End): 10 (13.90) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 48, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 90.6% Win Probability (After): 90.6% Away Score: 48 (48) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 10:20 | |
(3rd & 7 at MICH 13) Emari Demercado run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 15 - TCU 48, MICH 38 | -1.25 | 91.5% | -4.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 13 -> 15 Started Drive at: MICH 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.61 - 3.86 = -1.25 Score Difference (Before): 10 (13.86) Score Difference (End): 10 (12.61) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 48, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.5% Win Probability (After): 87.4% Away Score: 48 (48) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 10:02 | |
(4th & 9 at MICH 16) Griffin Kell 33 Yd Field Goal - TCU 51, MICH 38 | 0.36 | 90.0% | 3.0% |
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Play Type: Field Goal Good Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 16 -> 15 Started Drive at: MICH 16 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.00 - 2.64 = 0.36 Score Difference (Before): 10 (12.64) Score Difference (End): 13 (13.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 90.0% Win Probability (After): 93.0% Away Score: 48 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 10:02 | |
(Kickoff at MICH 35) Luke Laminack kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback - TCU 51, MICH 38 | 0.00 | 14.2% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 75 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.64 - 0.64 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-12.36) Score Difference (End): -13 (-12.36) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.2% Win Probability (After): 14.2% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 9:55 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 25) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete - TCU 51, MICH 38 | -0.48 | 14.2% | -0.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.15 - 0.62 = -0.48 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-12.38) Score Difference (End): -13 (-12.85) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 1 play, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 14.2% Win Probability (After): 13.3% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 9:51 | |
(2nd & 10 at MICH 25) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston Loveland - TCU 51, MICH 38 | -0.84 | 12.3% | -2.1% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.72 - 0.12 = -0.84 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-12.88) Score Difference (End): -13 (-13.72) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 12.3% Win Probability (After): 10.3% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 9:42 | |
(3rd & 10 at MICH 25) J.J. McCarthy run for 1 yd to the Mich 26 - TCU 51, MICH 38 | -0.93 | 10.1% | -1.4% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 74 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.68 - -0.75 = -0.93 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-13.75) Score Difference (End): -13 (-14.68) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 10.1% Win Probability (After): 8.8% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 8:50 | |
(4th & 9 at MICH 26) Brad Robbins punt for 64 yds, downed at the TCU 10 - TCU 51, MICH 38 | 1.32 | 8.9% | -0.8% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 74 -> 90 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.34 - -1.67 = 1.32 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-14.67) Score Difference (End): 13 (13.34) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 1 yards Win Probability (Before): 8.9% Win Probability (After): 8.2% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 8:40 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 10) Max Duggan run for 3 yds to the TCU 13 - TCU 51, MICH 38 | -0.36 | 93.7% | -0.8% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 87 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.12 - 0.24 = -0.36 Score Difference (Before): 13 (13.24) Score Difference (End): 13 (12.88) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 1 play, 3 yards Win Probability (Before): 93.7% Win Probability (After): 92.9% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 7:55 | |
(2nd & 7 at TCU 13) Max Duggan pass complete to Derius Davis for 5 yds to the TCU 18 - TCU 51, MICH 38 | 0.21 | 94.0% | -0.6% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 87 -> 82 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.12 - -0.09 = 0.21 Score Difference (Before): 13 (12.91) Score Difference (End): 13 (13.12) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 8 yards Win Probability (Before): 94.0% Win Probability (After): 93.4% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 7:00 | |
(3rd & 2 at TCU 18) Max Duggan pass complete to Emari Demercado for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 16 - TCU 51, MICH 38 | -1.92 | 93.6% | -3.2% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 82 -> 84 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -1.71 - 0.21 = -1.92 Score Difference (Before): 13 (13.21) Score Difference (End): 13 (11.29) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 93.6% Win Probability (After): 90.3% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 6:46 | |
(4th & 4 at TCU 16) Jordy Sandy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the Mich 44 - TCU 51, MICH 38 | -0.65 | 92.6% | -2.8% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 84 -> 56 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -2.18 - -1.54 = -0.65 Score Difference (Before): 13 (11.46) Score Difference (End): -13 (-10.82) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 6 yards Win Probability (Before): 92.6% Win Probability (After): 89.8% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 6:30 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 44) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 15 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST down - TCU 51, MICH 38 | 1.01 | 9.8% | 0.9% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 56 -> 41 Started Drive at: MICH 44 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.26 - 2.24 = 1.01 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-10.76) Score Difference (End): -13 (-9.74) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.8% Win Probability (After): 10.8% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 6:19 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 41) TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson) to the TCU 26 for a 1ST down - TCU 51, MICH 38 | 0.90 | 9.8% | 1.5% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 41 -> 26 Started Drive at: MICH 44 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.14 - 3.24 = 0.90 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-9.76) Score Difference (End): -13 (-8.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 1 play, 15 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.8% Win Probability (After): 11.3% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 6:13 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 26) Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the TCU 20 - TCU 51, MICH 38 | 0.23 | 10.9% | 0.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 26 -> 20 Started Drive at: MICH 44 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.46 - 4.23 = 0.23 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-8.77) Score Difference (End): -13 (-8.54) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 21 yards Win Probability (Before): 10.9% Win Probability (After): 11.4% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 5:45 | |
(2nd & 4 at TCU 20) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete - TCU 51, MICH 38 | -0.46 | 11.9% | -1.3% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 20 Started Drive at: MICH 44 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 3.83 - 4.30 = -0.46 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-8.70) Score Difference (End): -13 (-9.17) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 21 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.9% Win Probability (After): 10.6% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 5:40 | |
(3rd & 4 at TCU 20) Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the TCU 15 for a 1ST down - TCU 51, MICH 38 | 1.09 | 11.4% | 0.7% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 20 -> 15 Started Drive at: MICH 44 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.80 - 3.71 = 1.09 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-9.29) Score Difference (End): -13 (-8.20) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 26 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.4% Win Probability (After): 12.1% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 5:15 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 15) J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 7 yds to the TCU 8 - TCU 51, MICH 38 | 0.41 | 11.1% | 1.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 15 -> 8 Started Drive at: MICH 44 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.31 - 4.90 = 0.41 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-8.10) Score Difference (End): -13 (-7.69) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 33 yards Win Probability (Before): 11.1% Win Probability (After): 12.8% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 5:00 | |
(2nd & 3 at TCU 8) Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 10 - TCU 51, MICH 38 | -1.13 | 12.9% | -2.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 8 -> 10 Started Drive at: MICH 44 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 4.23 - 5.36 = -1.13 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-7.64) Score Difference (End): -13 (-8.77) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 31 yards Win Probability (Before): 12.9% Win Probability (After): 10.8% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 4:29 | |
(3rd & 5 at TCU 10) J.J. McCarthy run for 6 yds to the TCU 4 for a 1ST down - TCU 51, MICH 38 | 1.69 | 9.2% | 4.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 10 -> 4 Started Drive at: MICH 44 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.92 - 4.23 = 1.69 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-8.77) Score Difference (End): -13 (-7.08) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 7 plays, 37 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.2% Win Probability (After): 13.9% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 3:45 | |
(1st & Goal at TCU 4) Kalel Mullings run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 5 - TCU 51, MICH 38 | -0.60 | 12.9% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 4 -> 5 Started Drive at: MICH 44 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 5.36 - 5.96 = -0.60 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-7.04) Score Difference (End): -13 (-7.64) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 8 plays, 36 yards Win Probability (Before): 12.9% Win Probability (After): 12.9% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 3:18 | |
(2nd & Goal at TCU 5) Roman Wilson 5 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick) - TCU 51, MICH 45 | 1.59 | 9.1% | 16.8% |
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Play Type: Passing Touchdown Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 5 -> 99 Started Drive at: MICH 44 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 5.41 = 1.59 Score Difference (Before): -13 (-7.59) Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 9.1% Win Probability (After): 26.0% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 3:18 | |
(2nd & 11 at MICH 35) Timeout TCU, clock 03:18 - TCU 51, MICH 38 | 0.00 | 24.6% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 99 Started Drive at: MICH 44 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 7.00 - 7.00 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.08) Score Difference (End): -13 (-6.00) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 9 plays, 41 yards Win Probability (Before): 24.6% Win Probability (After): 24.6% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 3 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 3:18 | |
(Kickoff at TCU 35) Jake Moody kickoff for 65 yds , Derius Davis return for 10 yds to the TCU 10 - TCU 51, MICH 38 | -1.35 | 99.1% | -0.2% |
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Play Type: Kickoff Return (Offense) Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 65 -> 90 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.26 - 1.09 = -1.35 Score Difference (Before): 13 (14.09) Score Difference (End): 13 (12.74) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 38 Drive Summary: 0 plays, 0 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.1% Win Probability (After): 99.0% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (38) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 3:05 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 10) Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the TCU 12 - TCU 51, MICH 45 | -0.50 | 99.2% | -16.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 90 -> 88 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.10 - 0.40 = -0.50 Score Difference (Before): 13 (13.40) Score Difference (End): 6 (5.90) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 1 play, 2 yards Win Probability (Before): 99.2% Win Probability (After): 83.1% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 38 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 2:20 | |
(2nd & 8 at TCU 12) Emari Demercado run for 7 yds to the TCU 19 - TCU 51, MICH 45 | 0.05 | 88.6% | -6.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 88 -> 81 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.20 - 0.15 = 0.05 Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.15) Score Difference (End): 6 (6.20) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 9 yards Win Probability (Before): 88.6% Win Probability (After): 82.0% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 1:40 | |
(3rd & 1 at TCU 19) Max Duggan run for 2 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST down - TCU 51, MICH 45 | 0.84 | 91.2% | 0.1% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 81 -> 79 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.99 - 0.14 = 0.84 Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.14) Score Difference (End): 6 (6.99) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 11 yards Win Probability (Before): 91.2% Win Probability (After): 91.3% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 1:07 | |
(1st & 10 at TCU 21) Emari Demercado run for 2 yds to the TCU 23 - TCU 51, MICH 45 | -0.21 | 97.0% | -3.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 79 -> 77 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.48 - 0.69 = -0.21 Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.69) Score Difference (End): 6 (6.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 97.0% Win Probability (After): 93.3% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 3 |
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| Q4 1:07 | |
(2nd & 8 at TCU 23) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 01:07 - TCU 51, MICH 45 | 0.00 | 96.7% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 77 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.48 - 0.48 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.48) Score Difference (End): 6 (6.48) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 13 yards Win Probability (Before): 96.7% Win Probability (After): 96.7% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 1:03 | |
(2nd & 8 at TCU 23) Max Duggan run for 4 yds to the TCU 27 - TCU 51, MICH 45 | 0.05 | 97.5% | -0.5% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 77 -> 73 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.49 - 0.44 = 0.05 Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.44) Score Difference (End): 6 (6.49) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 97.5% Win Probability (After): 97.0% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 1:03 | |
(3rd & 4 at TCU 27) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 01:03 - TCU 51, MICH 45 | 0.00 | 97.1% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 73 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.49 - 0.49 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.49) Score Difference (End): 6 (6.49) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 5 plays, 17 yards Win Probability (Before): 97.1% Win Probability (After): 97.1% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 0:59 | |
(3rd & 4 at TCU 27) Max Duggan pass complete to Quentin Johnston for 3 yds to the TCU 30 - TCU 51, MICH 45 | -0.61 | 97.4% | -1.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 73 -> 70 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - 0.42 = -0.61 Score Difference (Before): 6 (6.42) Score Difference (End): 6 (5.81) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 97.4% Win Probability (After): 95.6% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 1 |
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| Q4 0:59 | |
(4th & 1 at TCU 30) Timeout MICHIGAN, clock 00:59 - TCU 51, MICH 45 | 0.00 | 96.2% | 0.0% |
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Play Type: Timeout Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.19 - -0.19 = 0.00 Score Difference (Before): 6 (5.81) Score Difference (End): 6 (5.81) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 96.2% Win Probability (After): 96.2% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 0:59 | |
(4th & 1 at TCU 30) TCU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TCU 25 - TCU 51, MICH 45 | -0.17 | 96.4% | -0.4% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 75 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.25 - -0.08 = -0.17 Score Difference (Before): 6 (5.92) Score Difference (End): 6 (5.75) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 96.4% Win Probability (After): 96.0% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 0:52 | |
(4th & 6 at TCU 25) Jordy Sandy punt for 50 yds , A.J. Henning returns for no gain to the Mich 25 - TCU 51, MICH 45 | -0.26 | 96.8% | -5.8% |
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Play Type: Punt Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: TCU 10 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.60 - -0.34 = -0.26 Score Difference (Before): 6 (5.66) Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.40) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 6 plays, 20 yards Win Probability (Before): 96.8% Win Probability (After): 91.1% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 0:45 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 25) J.J. McCarthy run for 5 yds to the Mich 30 - TCU 51, MICH 45 | 0.26 | 5.8% | 2.6% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 70 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.65 - 0.39 = 0.26 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.61) Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.35) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 1 play, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 5.8% Win Probability (After): 8.4% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 0:39 | |
(2nd & 5 at MICH 30) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Roman Wilson - TCU 51, MICH 45 | -0.10 | 5.6% | 0.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 70 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.35 - 0.45 = -0.10 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.55) Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.65) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 5.6% Win Probability (After): 6.3% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 0:39 | |
(3rd & 5 at MICH 30) MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Colston Loveland) to the Mich 25 - TCU 51, MICH 45 | -0.16 | 5.4% | -0.4% |
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Play Type: Penalty Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 70 -> 75 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 0.14 - 0.30 = -0.16 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.70) Score Difference (End): -6 (-5.86) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 2 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 5.4% Win Probability (After): 4.9% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 0:35 | |
(3rd & 10 at MICH 25) J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Donovan Edwards - TCU 51, MICH 45 | -0.53 | 5.1% | -0.7% |
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Play Type: Pass Incompletion Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 75 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -0.32 - 0.22 = -0.53 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-5.78) Score Difference (End): -6 (-6.32) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 3 plays, 5 yards Win Probability (Before): 5.1% Win Probability (After): 4.4% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 0 Defense Timeouts: 2 |
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| Q4 0:25 | |
(4th & 10 at MICH 25) Donovan Edwards pass complete to Colston Loveland for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 24 for a 1ST down - TCU 51, MICH 45 | -3.09 | 4.2% | -2.8% |
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Play Type: Pass Reception Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 75 -> 24 Started Drive at: MICH 25 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): -3.13 - -0.04 = -3.09 Score Difference (Before): -6 (-6.04) Score Difference (End): 6 (9.13) Change of Possession: 1 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 4 plays, 4 yards Win Probability (Before): 4.2% Win Probability (After): 1.4% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0 Fouth Down Decision Evaluation: link |
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| Q4 0:00 | |
(1st & 10 at MICH 24) TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 25 - TCU 51, MICH 45 | 0.83 | 97.1% | 2.9% |
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Play Type: Rush Yards to End Zone (Before -> After): 24 -> 25 Started Drive at: MICH 24 ExpPts (After - Before = Added): 2.23 - 1.40 = 0.83 Score Difference (Before): 6 (7.40) Score Difference (End): 6 (8.23) Change of Possession: 0 Score: TCU 51, MICH 45 Drive Summary: 1 play, -1 yards Win Probability (Before): 97.1% Win Probability (After): 100.0% Away Score: 51 (51) Home Score: 45 (45) Pos Team Timeouts: 2 Defense Timeouts: 0 |
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